Bureau of Economic and Business Research
Annual Report 2008-2009

July 2009

Bureau of Economic and Business Research
221 Matherly Hall
P.O. Box 117145
University of Florida
Gainesville, FL 32611-7145
Telephone: 352-392-0171
Fax: 352-392-4739
Web Site: www.bebr.ufl.edu

UF UNIVERSITY of

UFIFLORIDA
The Foundation for The Gator Nation

Staff members, Bureau of Economic and Business Research
July 2009

Director:
Stanley Smith, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director

Research Programs

Economic Analysis:
James (Jim) Dewey, Ph.D., Program Director
David Denslow, Ph.D., Professor of Economics
Babak (Bob) Lotfinia, B.A.
Lynne Holt, Ph.D. (part-time)

Population:
Stanley Smith, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director
Scott Cody, M.B.A.
Stefan Rayer, Ph.D.

Survey:
Chris McCarty, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director
Mark Girson, B.S.
Scott Richards, M.A.
Eric Lavigne, M.S.
Armando Padilla, A.A.

Operations Programs

Administrative Services:
Clint Collins, B.S., Program Director
Janet Fletcher
Paula Ivey
Pamela Middleton

Information Technology:
Clint Collins, B.S., Program Director
Geoff Stewart, A.A.

Information/Publications Services:
Susan Floyd, M.A., Program Director
Eve Irwin, B.A.
Phoebe Wilson, A.A.

Bureau of Economic and Business Research
Annual Report 2008-2009

About BEBR

Founded in 1929, the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) is an applied research
center in the Warrington College of Business Administration at the University of Florida (UF). Its
primary mission is to: 1) Produce, collect, and tabulate economic and demographic data for Florida
and its local areas; 2) Conduct economic, demographic, and public policy research on topics of
particular importance to the state of Florida; and 3) Distribute data and research findings
throughout the state and the nation. BEBR seeks to conduct research that is both academically
sound and directly relevant to public and private decision makers in Florida.

BEBR plays a number of roles within the state, the college, and the university. It conducts research
that helps decision makers understand Florida's rapidly changing economic and demographic
climate. It provides employment and training for numerous graduate students and more than 300
undergraduate students and part-time employees each year. It generates revenues by obtaining
research contracts and grants and by selling data and publications. It creates favorable publicity for
the college and the university through its publications, presentations, reference services, and
contributions to public policy. Its staff members teach several courses each year. BEBR activities
thus fall within the university's traditional functions of teaching, research, and service, but the
impact of those activities spreads far beyond campus boundaries.

The Year in Review

The past year was a difficult one in Florida, as a severe economic recession gripped the state and
the nation, hammering output and employment, ravaging the housing market, and drastically
reducing state and local government revenues. Budget cuts at the University of Florida threatened
many colleges, departments, and programs, including BEBR. Although there were many anxious
moments, the worst threats were not realized and BEBR's operating budget suffered only a
relatively small cut. The future is still unsettled, however, and we will continue to look for ways to
cut costs and raise revenues.

Despite the anxiety created by a deteriorating economy and threats of budget cuts, BEBR had
another successful year in 2008-2009. Staff members served as principal investigators on 19
research contracts, generating more than $2.3 million in revenue. They published five articles in
scholarly journals and two in Florida Focus, wrote a report for the Florida Legislature, and
prepared 10 technical reports or data compilations. They taught nine courses (with 3,500
students); presented 15 papers at professional conferences; served on eight boards or committees
at UF and 12 for various civic or professional groups; made 32 presentations to groups
throughout the state; and responded to more than 3,000 requests for information from businesses,
government agencies, the media, and members of the general public. These accomplishments
enhanced BEBR's reputation as an innovative and productive applied research center and a
leading source of socioeconomic and demographic data for the state of Florida.

Figure 1. Estimated Revenues 2008-2009
(preliminary): $3,056,330

Sale of
Products
$98,634 University of
3% Florida
$628,747
21%

Contracts
$2,328,949
76%

One of the highlights of the year was setting up a designated fund in memory of former BEBR
director Jerry Milliman. Jerry was an outstanding scholar, colleague, mentor, and friend and was
a passionate advocate for BEBR during his years as director (1983-1989). An anonymous donor
made a generous contribution toward establishing a fund in his memory and many other
supporters made donations as well. Proceeds from the fund will be used to provide employment
and training for graduate and undergraduate students at BEBR.

The Survey Program generated more than $1.8 million in revenues in 2008-09. The UF Survey
Research Center (UFSRC) conducted 54 surveys, requiring 93,391 interviewing hours and
resulting in 55,572 completed interviews. As usual, the primary focus was healthcare. The major
client was the UF Institute for Child Health Policy, with surveys funded by the Florida Agency
for Healthcare Administration, Florida Healthy Kids, and the State of Texas. Other large surveys
were conducted for the Kaiser Family Foundation, the RAND corporation, and the University of
Miami.

The Survey Program conducted several unique surveys this year. One was for the Florida
Department of Health as part of the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), the
largest telephone survey in the world. This survey focused on cell phone respondents and will
eventually become a major component of the BRFSS protocol. Another was a web survey of
scientists, funded by the National Science Foundation to increase understanding of how
innovation passes from academic to non-academic settings. The recent economic downturn
spurred additional interest in the program's monthly consumer confidence survey, the results of
which are covered regularly by newspapers and other media outlets and are reviewed by the
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

The Survey Program continues to be active in research. Chris McCarty had articles on network
analysis accepted for publication in Social Networks and Human Organization. He presented
papers at six professional conferences or workshops, including one in Minsk, Belarus sponsored
by the United Nations. He served as a reviewer for the National Science Foundation and

continues to collaborate on a variety of projects with colleagues in other departments and
colleges on campus, particularly in the College of Public Health and Health Professions.

The Survey Program had several administrative and personnel changes this year. Armando
Padilla left the UFSRC, leaving Scott Richards and Mark Girson as the only project managers.
Gene Averkiou was promoted to lab manager and Eric Lavigne increased his hours from part-
time to full time in the UFSRC.

The Population Program once again received a grant from the Florida Legislature to produce
population estimates for all cities and counties in Florida; estimates of households and average
household size for the state and each county; and population projections by age, sex, race, and
Hispanic origin for the state and each county. The estimates form the basis for the distribution of
revenue-sharing funds in Florida and both the estimates and projections are used for planning
and budgeting purposes by businesses and government agencies throughout the state. Staff
members conducted research on a variety of demographic topics, provided data to the U.S.
Census Bureau, and responded to requests for demographic data and analysis from state and
local government officials, business leaders, university researchers, members of the media, and
the general public.

Stan Smith and Stefan Rayer had an article on prediction intervals for county population
forecasts accepted for publication in Population Research and Policy Review. Smith reviewed
seven manuscripts for scholarly journals; presented papers at three professional conferences;
served on the National Research Council's Panel on the Design of the 2010 Census Program of
Evaluations and Experiments; was a member of the U.S. Census Bureau's Population Estimates
Evaluation Committee; and was appointed to the Population Reference Bureau's Board of
Trustees. He and Scott Cody served as Florida's representatives to the Federal-State Cooperative
Programs for Population Estimates, and Smith and Rayer served as Florida's representatives to
the Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population Projections. Rayer reviewed population
estimates and projections for the U.S. Census Bureau and served as a contact person for Census
Bureau data releases.

The Economic Analysis Program again received funding from the Florida Legislature to
produce the Florida Price Level Index. Staff members continued to refine and improve the index,
which is used to allocate K-12 education funds to school districts throughout the state. The
program's research efforts this year focused on regional labor and housing markets, with a
particular emphasis on spatial variation in wages and prices. Jim Dewey and former program
member Gabriel Montes Rojas published an article on inter-city wage differentials and intra-city
workplace centralization in Regional Science and Urban Economics. Lynne Holt and Mary
Galligan published an article on policies affecting broadband deployment in CommLaw
Conspectus: Journal of Communications Laws and Policy.

Building on recent work on property taxes, Jim Dewey and Dave Denslow analyzed local
government responses to the housing boom. Dewey presented the findings of this research at the
annual meeting of the Southern Economic Association. Lynne Holt and Bob Lotfinia published a
Florida Focus article on increasing sales tax revenues from Internet purchases, and Holt and
Carol Jacobson Larson published one on consumer attitudes on energy conservation and
efficiency. Dewey and Lotfinia continued their work with researchers from the Center on

Personnel Studies in Special Education to analyze the cost effectiveness of alternative routes to
teacher certification in special education. Dewey served on the advisory board for the ACCRA
Cost of Living Index, produced by the Council for Community and Economic Research.
Denslow served on the Florida Council of Economic Advisers, the Collins Institute Board of
Directors, and several UF committees; in addition, he made 29 presentations on the Florida
economy and related topics to civic and business groups throughout the state.

The Information/Publications Services Program produced and published six annual or
monthly statistical reports about Florida during the past year, including the widely used and
frequently cited Florida Statistical Abstract. Staff members published and distributed four
reports for the Population Program; prepared the annual safety report for the State Fire Marshal's
office; provided editorial and publication assistance to the Economic Analysis Program; edited
two articles for Florida Focus; and collaborated with the IT Program to launch and manage the
redesigned, more user-friendly BEBR web site.

The Information/Publications Services Program continued to inform subscribers about new
publications through its e-mail announcement service. Electronic format publication sales
increased 10% overall from the previous year and sales via e-mail increased 12%, reducing
printing and mailing costs. Staff members coordinated BEBR's marketing, distribution, and
public relations efforts and responded to more than 1,600 telephone and e-mail information
requests throughout the year. Susan Floyd chaired a committee to develop guidelines for a new
"Electronic Publications" award for the Association for University Business and Economic
Research (AUBER). She, Eve Irwin, and Phoebe Wilson served as judges selecting the first
winner of this award.

The Administrative Services Program manages the budget, tracks revenues and expenditures,
maintains personnel files and appointments, handles orders and shipments of publications,
provides oversight for compliance with UF rules and regulations, and performs many other
essential office tasks. Staff members also provide grant management services for the CIBER
program and maintain the fire safety inspection portal for the State Fire Marshall's Office. These
two projects generated more than $21,000 during the past year.

The Information Technology Program provides essential computing services to all BEBR
employees. Staff members continuously update and redesign the BEBR web site, which
generates approximately 4,700 unique visitors and 27,000 page views each month. Clint Collins
served on UF's Technology Administrative Committee and continues as president of the Gator
Linux Users Group. In personnel moves, data base administrator Martin Smith left for another
position at UF. We plan to hire a replacement for Martin within the next few months.

BEBR employs 18 fulltime staff members, two part-time staff members, and a large number of
graduate students, undergraduate students, and part-time hourly workers (see Figure 2). This
report provides a quick overview and summary of our activities and accomplishments from May
1, 2008 to April 30, 2009. For additional information on BEBR's products, services, and
research activities, visit our website at www.bebr.ufl.edu or give us a call at (352) 392-0171.

Figure 2. Organizational Chart, BEBR
BEBR Director
Smith

I
Research Programs
I

Po ulation Survey Economic Analysis
Program Director Program Director Program Director
Smith McCarty Dewey

I
Operations

Administrative
Services

Information/Publications
Services

Information Technology

Table 1. Publications, 2008-2009

Dewey, Jim, David Denslow, and Bob Lotfinia

"2007 Florida County Retail Price and Wage Indices," Bureau of Economic and Business
Research, June 2008.

"2008 Florida Price Level Index," report prepared for the Florida Legislature, February 2009.

Dewey, Jim and Gabriel Montes-Rojas

"Inter-city Wage Differentials and Intra-City Workplace Centralization," Regional Science and
Urban Economics, forthcoming.

Floyd, Susan, Eve Irwin and Phoebe Wilson

Florida Statistical Abstract, 2007, 42nd ed., Bureau of Economic and Business Research, October 2008.

Florida County Rankings, 2008, 15th ed., Bureau of Economic and Business Research, March 2009.

Holt, Lynne and Mary Galligan

"State and Federal Policies to Accelerate Broadband Deployment: A Policy Checklist,"
CommLaw Conspectus: Journal of Communications Laws and Policy, vol. 7, no. 1, 2008.

Holt, Lynne and Carol Jacobson Larson

"Consumers' Attitudes toward Energy Conservation and Energy Efficiency: The Role of Electric
Rates," Florida Focus, Vol. 4, No. 4, November 2008.

Holt, Lynne and Babak Lotfinia

"Increasing Florida's Sales Tax Revenue from Internet Purchases," Florida Focus, Vol. 5, No. 1,
March 2009.

Irwin, Eve

Building Permit Activity in Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, annual 2008
and monthly 2008-2009.

Gross and Taxable Sales Reports, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, annual 2008 and
monthly 2008-2009.

Table 1. Publications, 2008-2009
(continued)

Irwin, Eve and Phoebe Wilson

Florida County Perspective, 2008, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, March 2009.

McCarty, Christopher, Miranda J. Lubbers, Jos6 Luis Molina, Jiirgen Lerner, Ulrik
Brandes and Javier Avila

"Longitudinal Analysis of Personal Networks: The Case of Argentinean Migrants in Spain,"
Social Networks, forthcoming.

McCarty, Christopher, Joan S. Tucker, David Kennedy, Gery Ryan, Suzanne OL. Wenzed,
Daniela Golinelli and James Zazzali

"Homeless Women's Personal Networks: Implications for Understanding Risk Behavior,"
Human Organization, forthcoming.

Smith, Stanley and Scott Cody

"Number of Households and Average Household Size in Florida: April 1, 2008," Florida
Population Studies, Vol. 42, Bulletin 152, January 2009.

Smith, Stanley, Scott Cody and Stefan Rayer

Florida Estimates of Population 2008, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, January 2009.

Smith, Stanley and Stefan Rayer

"Population Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin for Florida and Its Counties, 2007
2030," Florida Population Studies, Vol. 41, Bulletin 151, July 2008.

"Projections of Florida Population by County, 2008-2035," Florida Population Studies, Vol. 42,
Bulletin 153, March 2009.

Smith, Stanley, Stefan Rayer and Jeff Tayman

"Empirical Prediction Intervals for County Population Forecasts," Population Research and
Policy Review, forthcoming.

Table 2. Presentations at Academic/Professional Conferences, 2008-2009

Dewey, Jim

"Local Government Reactions to Surges in Property Values," annual meeting of the Southern
Economics Association, Washington, D.C., November 2008.

Holt, Lynne

"The Impact of Broadband on Economic Growth: Implications from Experiences in the U.S.,"
Conference on Telecommunications Infrastructure and Economic Performance, Paris, October
2008.

"What Do Broadband Metrics Tell Us?" Conference of Communicopia: Market Dynamics in
Telecommunications, Tallahassee, November 2008.

"Setting Goals and Measuring the Effectiveness of the Stimulus: How Will We Know if the
Stimulus is Working as Planned?" Conference on Implementing the Broadband Stimulus:
Maximizing Benefits and Monitoring Performance, Washington DC, February 2009.

McCarty, Chris

"Social Network Analysis," NSF-sponsored workshop, Beaufort, NC, July 2008.

"Consumer Confidence in Florida," Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Local Economic Analysis
and Research Network (LEARN) Conference, New Orleans, September 2008.

"Social Network Analysis," annual meeting of the American Anthropological Association, San
Francisco, November 2008.

"Social Network Analysis of the Collaborative Interaction of Scientists in Academic and Non-academic
Settings," annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Chicago,
February 2009.

"Social Network Analysis of the Collaborative Interaction of Scientists in Academic and Non-academic
Settings," NSF/AAAS-sponsored workshop on scientific innovation, Washington DC, March 2009.

"Social Network Analysis," NSF-sponsored workshop, annual meeting of the Society for
Applied Anthropology, Santa Fe, NM, March 2009.

Rayer, Stefan

"An Evaluation of Subcounty Population Forecasts in Florida," annual meeting of the Southern
Demographic Association, Greenville, SC, November 2008.

Table 2. Presentations at Academic/Professional Conferences, 2008-2009
(continued)

Rayer, Stefan (continued)

"Subcounty Population Forecast Accuracy: An Analysis Beyond Size and Growth," annual
meeting of the Population Association of America, Detroit, April 2009.

Smith, Stanley

"Applied Research: Examples and Guidelines," presentation to Bridges Program, WCBA, June
2008.

"Migration Trends in Florida," Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Local Economic Analysis and
Research Network (LEARN) Conference, New Orleans, September 2008.

"The Relationships between Population Size and Growth Rate and County Forecast Errors,"
annual meeting of the Southern Demographic Association, Greenville, SC, November 2008.

Table 3. Presentations to Business/Civic/Government Groups, 2008-2009

Denslow, David

"SE Florida Economic Outlook," UF Alumni Club, West Palm Beach, May 2008.

"SE Florida Economic Outlook," Ft. Lauderdale, Broward Regional Council, Ft. Lauderdale,
May 2008.

"SE Florida Economic Outlook," Miami UF Alumni Club, Miami, May 2008.

"Florida Economic Outlook," TaxWatch Board of Directors, Amelia Island, May 2008.

"Florida Economic Outlook," Florida Press Association, Orlando, June 2008.

"Florida Economic Outlook," Florida Association of Colleges and Universities, Orlando, June
2008.

"Florida Economic Issues," Florida Leadership Institute, Gainesville, July 2008.

"Florida Economic Outlook," Enterprise Florida, Ponte Vedra, August 2008.

"Florida Economic Outlook," Gainesville, CPAs, Gainesville, September 2008.

"Florida Economic Outlook," Auditors, Gainesville, September 2008.

"The Credit Crisis," Trinity Methodist Church, Gainesville, October 2008.

"WCBA Bailout Panel," Gainesville, October 2008.

"The Economy and Prospects for Donations," Board of Directors, American Cancer Society, Ft.
Lauderdale, October 2008.

"Florida Economic Outlook," Enterprise Florida, St Petersburg, October 2008.

"U.S. and Florida Economic Outlook," Accounting Conference, Gainesville, October 2008.

"U. S.Economic Outlook," Elks Charity Board of Directors, Umatilla, October 2008.

"Economic Outlook," DuPont Foundation, Jacksonville, October 2008.

"Florida Economic Outlook," TaxWatch Directors, Palm Beach, November 2008.

"Florida Economic Outlook," Central Florida State Legislators, Orlando, December 2008.

Table 3. Presentations to Business/Civic/Government Groups, 2008-2009
(continued)

Denslow, David (continued)

"Florida Economic Issues," 3 Committees of Florida Legislature, Tallahassee, January 2009.

"National Economic Outlook," U.S. Association of Veterinarians, Orlando, January 2009.

"National Real Estate Outlook," Urban Land Institute, Ft. Lauderdale, January 2009.

"Florida Economic Outlook," Senate Budget Committee, Tallahassee, February 2009.

"National Economic Outlook," entering MBA students, Gainesville, February 2009.

"National Housing Outlook," Hardwood Manufacturers Association, Ponte Vedra, February
2009.

"National Economic Outlook," ISOM Forum, Gainesville, March 2009.

"Economics of Higher Education in Florida," Askew Institute, Gainesville, April, 2009.

"Florida Economic Outlook," Florida Association of Counties,, Gainesville, April 2009.

"National Economic Outlook," (more) entering MBA students, Gainesville, April 2009.

McCarty, Chris

Panel Discussion at the meeting of the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC),
Orlando, August 2008.

"Economic Indicators for Florida," Florida Association for Counties meeting, Gainesville,
January 2009.

Smith, Stanley

"Florida Population Trends," Alachua Chamber of Commerce, May 2008.

Table 4. Professional and University Service, 2008-2009

Cody, Scott

Florida Representative, Federal State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates, US Census
Bureau.

Collins, Clint

Member, Technology Administrative Committee, Network Infrastructure, UF.
President, Gator Linux Users Group.

Denslow, David

Chair, UF Honorary Degree Committee.
Member, UF Academic Policy Council.
Member, UF Ad-Hoc Faculty Compensation.
Member, College of Business Teaching Committee.
Member, City of Gainesville Police & Fire Pension Board.
Member, Collins Institute Board of Directors.
Member, State of Florida Council of Economic Advisers.
Reviewer, Yale University Press.
Informal Advisor, Council of Economics.
Faculty Award, UF Student Government.

Dewey, Jim

Member, ACCRA Cost of Living Index Advisory Board, Council for Community and Economic
Research.
Mentor, University Scholars Program: Henrique Romero.

Floyd, Susan

Member, UF Communications Network.
Board of Directors, Association for University Business and Economic Research (AUBER).

McCarty, Chris

Member, Faculty Advisory Committee, UF Water Institute.

Table 4. Professional and University Service, 2008-2009
(continued)

Rayer, Stefan

Florida Representative, Federal State Cooperative Program for Population Projections, US Census
Bureau.
Reviewer, Census Bureau estimates and projections.
Contact, Census Bureau demographic data releases.

Smith, Stanley

Member, Panel on the Design of the 2010 Census Program of Evaluations and Experiments,
National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences.
Florida Representative, Federal State Cooperative Programs for Population Estimates and
Projections, US Census Bureau.
Member, Committee to Evaluate Housing Unit-Based Population Estimates, US Census Bureau.
Member, Board of Trustees, Population Reference Bureau.
Member, Terrie Award Committee, Southern Demographic Association.
Session Chair, annual meeting Southern Demographic Association, Greenville, SC.
Reviewer, Demography, Population Research and Policy Review, International Journal of
Forecasting and Journal of Population Research.

Table 5. Contracts and Grants Awarded, 2008-2009*

Collins, Clint

"Inspection Report Data Entry Module," Division of State Fire Marshal $5,338

Denslow, David

"The Housing Bubble," Faculty Enhancement Opportunity Grant, UF $21,000

Dewey, Jim

"Florida Price Level Index," Florida Legislature $150,000

McCarty, Chris, Scott Richards, Armando Padilla and Mark Girson

Surveys for:
Alachua County Animal Services 3,708
Florida Agency for Health Care Administration 496,514
Florida Department of Children & Families 14,974
Florida Department of Health 16,388
Giant Steps Research 40,000
Greenburg-Traurig, PA 9,030
Gainesville Regional Utilities 2,360
Kaiser Family Foundation 24,304
Miscellaneous 877
RAND Corporation 50,642
UF College of Business Administration 11,000
UF College of Pharmacy 7,564
UF College of Public Health 3,318
UF Institute for Child Health Policy 903,220
University of Miami 265,838

Subtotal $1,849,737

Smith, Stanley

"Population Research Contract," Florida Legislature $302,874

TOTAL $2,328,949

*Note: These numbers refer to contracts and grants awarded during the 2008-2009 fiscal year.
Not all of the revenues were actually received during that year.

Table 6. Courses Taught, 2008-2009

Denslow, David

Summer A 2008
Summer B 2008
Fall 2008
Spring 2009
Spring 2009

ECO 2013
ECO 2013
ECO 2013
ECO 2013
ECO 4934

Principles of Macro
Principles of Macro
Principles of Macro
Principles of Macro
Honors Urban Economics

140 students
132 students
801 students
873 students
25 students

Dewey, Jim

Fall 2008
Spring 2009

McCarty, Chris

Summer 2008
Fall 2008

ECP 3703 Managerial Economics
ECP 3703 Managerial Economics

PHC6716 Survey Research Methods
HSA6930 Social Networks Analysis

731 students
883 students

22 students
12 students