|
I i
I I ll 0 I A II n u H
're: Xr. Jeroue deinkle April 20. 1960
Fran: Prof. Rose c. Beiler
Subject: Poll of Dads CountLRegistered De-ocratsyor Intellifenoe
llalevant to the On rnntorial c-paiso, Taken April 3-17
Since you desire to present sons of the central findings
Ira this poll st a luncneon today, it is not possible to write
a {oral report in the very scent tine I have this earning, nor
can I resent a couplets report. I all iv: you not I can now,
and M6 the rest after tne nesting, today. keepin in nind thst
the purpose of this research is to improve the efficiency of the
Bryant spin in Dade county.
mm. a standsrdised script consisting of ten questions, or
twelve if the respondent should be undecided about his choice or
the De-ocretic mimtion for governor, wns prepared carefully in
accordance with your instructions. a copy of this sot-is: econ--
panics this report. henty-tuo interviewers, nearly all or tnen
housewives with a collee education and nest of tun experienced
in teleaone interviewing. were put to work with this script be-
tween April 13 ans 1? of Sister hes. Interviewing was confined
to toe period between 5:)0 and 3:00 Ln. on dounealay tnroua
Friday, es the noun; procedure called for s forced balance of
ies with fen-lea.
Interviewers were sssi.ned A! in tno telephone directory.
They mu interviewed only persons who eves-red tnat tuey were
registered to vote in Dads County in the Wrath: prinries. In
a mall proportion of cases, interviews were ohteined separstaly
April, 'oo poll -- p. 2
with second respondents in the household who were also registered
to vote as Denocrnts in Dade County. When an interview wee obtained
from s residentiel listing in one column. the interviewer skipped
the next two coin-he and been calling egein from the cotton of
the third column in tue directory. The Homestead-Jerrine directory
was covered as well as the Jreeter Miami directory.
Interviewers were Diven detailed written instructions as well
es oral briefing. One instruction provided that interviews aere void
refused
if the respondent Inst-I to answer the question on candidate pref-
erence (for governor) end else both questions concerning segregation
issues. The toggl nulhg: Q! igtggxieue ICCOEEId n!2_d£, of which
W- This is almost ex-
ectly the site eenple which was plsnned. Thee were divided into
50.61 fllll. end L9.h male registered Deuocrete. the last quee-
tion asked whether respondents were under LL years of age (or over
£3). t8.8£ were under uh. These interviews were obtained from
1,250 attempts to obtein first or second interviews in 'ouaenolds,
or on 26.5% of attempts.
ceggiete Prefers e, 2345 Egggtx, gggil li-lT. The tools at the
top of the next page shows that at the time of the interviewing
h8$ of eligible voters available by telephone and not heme one
definite choice. when these voters were noted to indicate a leaning
toward one or too candidates, ll.33 did and :0.I did not. ?nese
are percentages of the tatal sample of 8)9 who did not refuse to
answer this question.) The views of these LU} Lesnere and undecided
voters are of perticuler importance for this analysis.
April '30 poll -- 3
Ila}; l -- Preference of Dede County Democrats for Nominee for
Governor, April 13-17
may
errant 5.35 (10 J 5.9; (11 )
Burns bu? ( 9 ) 5.8 ( 9 )
Carlton 13.8 (261) 16.L (26 )
David 5.1 (lo > 6.7 (10:)
Dickinson 6.k (125) 7.9 (12:)
McCarty lo.7 (32 J 19.7 (31 )
Undecided I. -- 36.. --
Total 3211: mm
H k36 839 (23 refused to answer question
but answered se regetion ques..
0 When leaning was expressed tousrd two candidates, ha I a choice
was added to each- in 6 cases there 3 choices were given, 1/3
choice was added for each..
In the above table, the figures in parentheses are percentages
adding to 100: in the first column tnis scene that leeners as dell
as undecided respondents are not caunted for percenta5es in sren-
theses; in the second column the undecided only are not floured
in t1¢ percentages in parentheses.
When the totals in the second column are compared for each
day of interviewing, the main impression is or stability in the
findings day after day. However, charty averaed snout 23:5, with
issuers and undecided voters incluied. the 'irst two Jays, end 3
bit above 17. tne last cures. to toe same basis, Carlton came up
from lS the first two days to an average of setter tumn i7, tn.
last three days. dhen we recall our December testino Jnich Jhlued
that tue only factor in tne situation at that time was a :av.raple
April, '60 poll -- 1. -
reaction to the PcCarty name, we are Justified in inferring that
McCarty is still losing groom: and Carlton is coating up. My guess
in that Sarlton paeaed McCarty in Dade County about hater weekend.
The day-to-day figures aleo amuse, not reliably, that
IcCarty is losing ground to David and probably to Bryant.
I an practically out of time, so I shall not attempt to
continue with this report at thie time. but shall nerely make
some general observations rebaniing other .indina. All of our
tabulations are completed. givin. us a remarkable aaount of late
.or a poll by telephone. All queetiona were tabulated according
to the preferences for candidatea, so teat he can not a better idea
of the character 01 the support for each candidate and, noovc all,
a better picture of too leaning and unieoided voters. In general,
unfortunately, ,Jeroentagee nave not been worked out tor tue tonic:
for these questions.
here is one important tanle u. percentages. .mwver:
m _2_ ~- Jandidate Preference by Maidential Diutrict (Leaning
0...! Q J 5 61:.cla;ed)
Hialeah a Xiani Central Heat 5.21.6: South
Far :..d. 51.2.. Sec. Beach Dietr. Contra- L... and. 3.. .al
3mm m 9 x I. 7- 6 m L'a 10 s 5-9!
Ital
Burn- 5i 8 5 5i 6 Si 1.! :.8
Carlton ll .22 2h. 10 15 20 20 l. J.
David a 7. 10 7 1. 7 3 5.5
Dickinson 11 55 st 93 a 5 at 7.8
McCarty 19 16 9 25:} 25: an 125 19.7.
Undecided 39k 3% 1.2 35:; 33 36. m 36.6
Total 9'9? 166! 156' 150' mu- mu ltU
N 175 133 715 138 11.2 101! 77 o39
0 Beailence not established for one definite McCarty partisan.
_A
OHIIU WIN:
TWO" SCH! APRIL 13-16, 1960
l. m m n lino. on an. loop 2 oirdl unborod ahead.
2. 0o ram .160: 1) out yo
. 0 do "01$ 1 h. mlhu'
:. I! In iota-vio- obu t.
. ha-o cloooly Io ooript. Clou' any chum- with Dr. 301 or.
341;:
Rollo. This in
ori col. mm; b) rooord loot
moor, Llly anon on all
nioo m calling. in you ruin-rod to .
vote in m y in tho puny m notation.
(1! :) In the" my 0 can" to and Mt in
thobouooholicoMX-ico k'( fulll-lilo
UP, TALLY.) (In lieu
mo ans In 18 no. DADL
mm! ucu misc:
1. Anuuss on
T LII or 8631".)
Lilli:
mm
Lin-1st
Ling:
O-unilm
1-2L bum
:- 37-) mul-
Lino :
20K
/ my .....
1- you; i-pt.
:- M 1.."-
u- %: -
won CAI!-
DATI'S 1.171115
0- undecided
Lino a:
BuIEPL!
"Io than on &4 Wyn tool Mu
in ratio mu-b
my olootioo on My 37"
1' (Halo) or "r" (Pulo)
"cow-ony- inhdoyouchinkouno:
ox-L7 or oxymonmm w
moo-ind) or,oriot.hio mo
ioop uni-pom. inyour opinion?
W In;
mn- ohoohq-inm din
tho on in for tho Wr'o ottioo h
pour09:5. 7
I'Do you bolim mot. oh. lunch of tho
undid-coo in roopoot. to tho nma furo-
iko in 1953 and '55 in to important. quouion
n thin minim, or not?"
'Io', 1'. pi to non. tho oix .io nondi-
dozu for tho erotic solution for pur-
nor. Thou I'll not oh:- you would you for
it u.- oloooion won bola; hold our.
Furri- Bryont Tod mm: mm '1?!
aydou burn Prod Diokinoon m
.- Doylo Carlton John nccm mom.)
(my? I! IEBSSMY. I? UHDE 0:) Mn
ou luni toward any on. or no conditions?"
DE Lin 0, I! nu. mm "03)
(A150. I? UNDLCIDKDH "Wot would hole you
out to dooido on on. poniculu- an?
(M)
a.
r
v
I.-r 2
5n-7u 1'): Act $1"
74'; vrlo 7/ r!"
'U'IOHISIDH
no you: MEWS!!! "DIP!!!" m um
'ES OJ. 9V MOMS 1'11". USES 311. NO
'SEHOUV 0)" mm moan IN. ONIJSI'I 8001
game 7m
'0'! 3!". 80 3018 Swan Inn. ID (131.0" ['01 30m ll
mm
30 5.1.1010 C {.SV'I m '(OSLSI'I 1.0! nm 11) 9580' 80 (03.1511
v 11) L110 93.1.er SI 8!! m; Ill. mum noun mm
' 3H1. no '(9! 80 II {I 1.9M mu m 2.1.11!!! 10!!! won: 2 mm
1.121 : our;
dutdtoq JO] n05 gum
rim m s 'nosuaa'nans "
H912 Haul!) tut-UNI! lud o Mona
omutmomnnmw 401
my: ptoqocnoq on: '1 up m an: n. q nu ¥
up; JIAO) in .xopnn .9. .mol '1. : Dun
Lanna-u no}:
-t.dow: 0-:- -z
nun-on
notationa- -t
'0" on 2 -o
saf-m
.umuoou n stomp. upon u: luau 0m
JO mum-aux on. "a: nonoq not op .30
Itooqoc upon u: .111th oq am not:
N1 30 not"! .- um nonoq not 00..
Luann: .10 a: n05 on
noun :0 uoqunoo noun! an Inn 05.1"
o: nan on am; no" I J0 mmvdop
no a: nod." tun oz tum [nun n
at 21-: on Pm mums 400.3100 'wuou :0
otdood on: 01 :napvoxq tuned: $0.30.! I 01..
-
00.13", -z
our '0 -1
mat on 1 -o
Ila-m
096! mm unws
7f?
PAGE 1
.o: :.r ,1erome ..eirzae From: Prof. icas C. Beiler Subj~ct: Poll of Dade County agi:,te Jaluvant to L-:.a abertratori Since you d(1sire 0-.. ,.rue:A s.. frum Mis isll at a lue:mon t..day, a formal report i:. t 2-.. very scant u een I prostint a compic-tm reporT,. i .. and add L.a rest ar-.er t;.a rettig tre purpose of this research is to i Bryant campai;n in Dade Cc-unty Apt ,{ 1960 -*Dmsrt f A frt l 17nc 001c0ur0.o soonordooodoit.oo0.mii 'tooo.. to.,
PAGE 2
...N,. riG Q1. ..t2 l .-.163 .0 -1'W IE -1 0 m/i t r
PAGE 3
A'> p1 -3 Ah vernir, Ap-l7 N .3 ... .13 ) 17rn t, 7 ( 1-{ ""3 ar lto A13 -(2AAAA 1iA .'AC(2 AdC) C *CACvi.CCAC .(CC.C C.7 C (CCCCCCCCCCC
PAGE 4
April, 'o pl -Maa sl 1.in rln n alo scnit, p 1 us irs ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ...... .rtnpse cit nDd ua bu atrw ed ......jy -y .iua 10ag s,01 M iby ~ a Mc~~~~arty~~ Z5 sn ruatoDvdad;rbal oByit
PAGE 5
077715 11U11111 TELEP105E 10111 A R 1373 16, 1960 1. T1115 I13 11 116n1 3575. k*. I c3rl5 numb.r5d 56553. 11. Is 3511535 5165: 5) 553rk p 5. 1 666. 1135.; b) r.5or1 5a1 11. If -o 1111153365 11b1153n t1 nu6.r, 1 .72 5566o 13Uall .6.56. I. 51d57511155517y *5 31r3s. C15sr 56y 6*.egs wItl 33. (Silr +1116. T615 15 01n10n 6urv1y3 33l3in1. -3. 136 r35155r5d ._ 1ot in 151111 3 165 3he eI1ra6fl 353r1y p1r151ry .151o1615 113. TALL0.) (II AMMI~I E131I 5131 '3H ENO 7.10 1330 II I" 11,. IIA. 133111AD>ES 1.31 4i 1j 1)5.: 0F SCRI??.} t.531 .1511 1137113 -.-T-raic a 153 3,510C11D 101) 3 "3" (P -s) Li*54 'I.153.r11,ysakI,711yfl161nk 5561 0.011511p3r5511 40 113 I7 51613 ;31661 5.5.. a .11r g53n 11111 1135555111611of3 1r33,6315191511135353r55n 65.-7 50t16566311566ooran,371y63r 1111116-" 101154 -506 751ddaes 13115p1151 511 *1h34 lrIta Tur5 1y5; 51 -*. 150115 n 55 .553 65 11.71r1111 66311.o 2-1166 15p1. 66th1. =77p6g, or n667" '755. l'Gats 56 1h6ori 555116556555115115651. 0D5T1. 151T5AL3015r, T635311 51 511 11613l 363e 5111r 1115 1131 6. 3655de i d lio 573r65 761 5513 566531. .16715e 1561111 J356 3,0536y -1101361.) 3(R53E1, II 1151110631. 117 106531C51) 5335 6155 II n11651,r1 366 ny111 015 55r1 3i51can da55? 11111 11 D61 55 13i3613 0, 015NY 3.3T1635" 5.")
PAGE 6
'T"UInd ,13Rd2 TIM .IGG IT IAY Alli A0 jAST AlA A5st IM AA II Al A'SD SXR IS)3 AIAV2Il qASiVASmad.I; tsAd I 01151 AmSAS SSlXlV AAA T ITno ApeT AflI) II Sj0T~el~ lAAAlh .so .9 .eu .f .no .... .. SI...AA I ....A SoAAAVAI MA'g IV puSS SV SAVVeAC J g o oA5 SA)VV A SXASSSSAnS.og 0 u~ ASAV S.I JV. P,51..5JI 'A39l 55I 55.*7MMA 5AnB BA oA IAr pS o BAI C sosedp eSynX
|
