|
rctober 1980
Economics Report 99
A Shift-Share
Analysis
of Employment Change
in Florida
1965-
Counties,
1975
U3
. ,-
/' 0-T .
William B.
)od and Resource Economics Department
agricultural Experiment Stations
stitute of Food and Agricultural Sciences
university of Florida, Gainesville 32611
Hackett
W. David Mulkey
John R. Gordor
I
ABSTRACT
This paper presents the results of a conventional shift-share
analysis of employment change in the state of Florida relative to the
nation. The analysis was completed for 80 single digit standard
industrial code industries for three time periods (1965-1970, 1970-1975,
and 1965-1975). Then the 22 manufacturing sectors (S.I.C. 14-35) were
isolated to avoid the masking over caused by dominant service and trade
industries. Results allow a detailed and systematic examination of
manufacturing change in one of the nation's fastest growing and most
rapidly urbanizing areas.
Key words: Shift-share, National Growth, Industrial-Mix,
Competitive-Share, Net-Shift, Employment Change.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors would like to extend their gratitude to Florida Sea Grant
Foundation and the Center for Rural Development for partial funding of this
project. Also, special thanks to Kathy Carroll who patiently typed through
several drafts before the final product was achieved.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
ABSTRACT . . ... .. . .. i
LIST OF TABLES . . . . . .. iii
INTRODUCTION . . . . . ... 1
Florida Growth: An Overview . ... . ..... 1
Shift-Share Analysis . . . . . 6
Literature Review. . . . . 8
A SHIFT-SHARE ANALYSIS OF FLORIDA AND FLORIDA COUNTIES. ..... 9
Data . . . . . 9
Shift-Share Analysis of Florida . . . 12
Shift-Share Analysis of Florida Counties . . 21
Trends in Eighteen Major Sectors . . . ... 28
Shift-Share Analysis of Florida Manufacturing. . 35
Shift-Share Analysis of Manufacturing Industries
in Florida Counties . . . ... ... 39
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS. . . .. .. .. 47
APPENDIX A . . . . ... . . 49
REFERENCES . . . . .. . . 51
ii
LIST OF TABLES
Table Page
1 Population and Growth Rates for Florida
Counties, 1965-1975. . . . . 3
2 Fast Growth Industries in Florida for 1965,
1970 and 1975. . . . . 5
3 Single Digit Standard Industrial Classification (1967) 13
4 Shift-Share Components of Employment Change in
Florida Industry, 1965-1970 . . .. 14
5 Shift-Share Components of Employment Change in
Florida Industry, 1970-1975. . . .. 17
6 Shift-Share Components of Employment Change in
Florida Industry, 1965-1975 .... . .. 19
7 Shift-Share Components of Employment Change in
Florida Counties, 1965-1970. . ... ..... 22
8 Shift-Share Components of Employment Change in
Florida Counties, 1970-1975. .... . .. 24
9 Shift-Share Components of Employment Change in
Florida Counties, 1965-1975. .. . . 26
10 Shift-Share Components of Employment Change in
Florida Manufacturing, 1965-1970 . ... .. 36
11 Shift-Share Components of Employment Change in
Florida Manufacturing, 1970-1975 ...... ... 37
12 Shift-Share Components of Employment Change in
Florida Manufacturing, 1965-1975 ... . 38
13 Shift-Share Components of Manufacturing Employment
Change in Florida Counties, 1965-1970. . 40
14 Shift-Share Components of Manufacturing Employment
Change in Florida Counties, 1970-1975. . 42
15 Shift-Share Components of Manufacturing Employment
Change in Florida Counties, 1965-1975 ... 44
A SHIFT-SHARE ANALYSIS OF EMPLOYMENT
CHANGE IN FLORIDA COUNTIES, 1965-1975
William B. Hackett, David Mulkey and John R. Gordon
INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this report is to provide a detailed and systematic
examination of non-agricultural employment change in Florida and Florida
counties over the 1965-1975 period. To this end, results of a shift-share
analysis of the Florida economy are presented, and the implications of
these results are preceded by sections which provide an overview of employ-
ment growth in Florida over the study period and explain the shift-share
methodology.
Florida Growth: An Overview
Florida's attributes have created an economy whose main industry
is tourism. In 1975, Florida had 27 million tourists spend an estimated
8.8 billion dollars [3]. Tourism, along with the state's large retirement
population, create a strong demand for the trade and service industries
which dominate the Florida economy. In addition, Florida has a sizable
manufacturing component which contributed, on a-value added basis, in
excess of 4 billion dollars in 1975 [7],
Growth has been extremely rapid in Florida over the past two decades.
As shown in Table 1, during the ten-year study period of 1965-1975, Florida's
The authors are, respectively, Research Assistant, Assistant Professor,
and Associate Professor, Department of Food and Resource Economics, IFAS,
University of Florida.
population increased 42.2 percent, from 5,961,600 to 8,485,200 [7]. Most
of this growth has occurred in coastal counties where the average population
increase was 60.6 percent. Meanwhile, the non-coastal counties averaged
an increase in population of 23.8 percent [7].
During the same ten-year interval, Florida employment increased by
1,469,414 new jobs or 123 percent [7]. Meanwhile, U.S, employment during
the 1965-75 span increased only 27.4 percent, from 60,444,000 to 76,985,000,
Thus, both in absolute terms and relative to the nation, Florida employment
growth has been extremely rapid. Table 2 presents employment data for 33
of Florida's fastest growing industries, with Florida and U.S. totals
provided for comparison.l Industries are listed by rank, with the fastest
growth industries being first. All industries in Table 2 experienced
growth rates in excess of 60 percent over the 1965-75 time period and
collectively they account for more than 56 percent of Florida's total
employment.
Table 2 reveals that in 1975, the largest employers of the 33 fast
growth industries in Florida were; Medical and Other Health Services,
Eating and Drinking Establishinents, Retail Trade and Wholesale Trade,
each employing over 100,000 persons in the state. Together, these four
sectors accounted for employment of over 1,164,918 people or, 34 percent
of the total 1975 employment and experienced an increase of 106 percent
between 1965 and 1975.
An examination of the industry growth rates in Florida from Table 2
provides further insight into economic change occurring in the state.
The growth leaders were Holding and Other Investment Companies, Medical
and Other Health Services, Educational Services, Legal Services and Trans-
The terms industry, sector and business are used interchangeably in
this report. The term industry is not limited to manufacturing. Rather
it indicates a disaggregated component of the analysis.
Table 1--Population and growth rates for Florida counties, 1965-1975
Population % Change Population % Change Population
County 1965 1965-70 1970 1970-75 1975
Alachua
Baker
Bay*
Bradford
Brevard*
Broward*
Calhoun
Charlotte*
Citrus*
Clay*
Collier*
Columbia
Dade*
Desoto*
Dixie*
Duval*
Escambia*
Flagler*
Franklin*
Gadsen
Gilchrist
Glades
Gulf*
Hamilton
Hardee
Henry
Hernando*
Highlands
Hillsborough*
Holmes
Indian River*
Jackson
Jefferson*
Lafayette
Lake
Lee*
Leon
Levy*
Li berty
Madison
Manatee*
Marion
Martin*
Mon roe *
Nassau*
Okaloosa*
Okeechobee
88,000
8,000
68,000
12,800
192,000
428,000
7,700
19,700
11,800
20,700
25,200
23,400
1,089,200
13,600
4,900
509,500
191,400
5,300
7,400
44,000
3,200
3,600
9,500
8,000
13,400
11,300
12,900
25,000
443,300.
11,300
31,800
36,400
9,700
2,900
62,600
71,800
83,000
11,500
2,900
14,600
78,100
62,200
22,900
59,500
19,300
78,500
90,000
19.0
15.5
2.9
14.3
21.7
29.6
-.9
8.6
16.1
29.9
30.0
7.9
7.3
0
14.3
1.5
3.4
-3.7
-1.3
-11.0
10.9
1.9
0
-2.7
11.1
4.9
3.9
18.3
6.5
-5.1
9.4
-5.4
-3.1
-.3
10.7
21.8
24.1
14.8
16.5
-7.6
8.7
11.0
5.7
5.0
3.6
14.6
24.8
104,704
9,242
70,000
14,625
234,000
528,000
7,624
27,400
13,700
26,900
33,000
25,200
1,169,000
13,600
5,100
517,000
198,000
5,100
7,300
39,184
-3,551
3,669
9,500
7,789
14,889
11,859
13,400
29,507
472,000
10,720
34,800
34,483
9,400
2,892
69,305
87,500
103,047
13,200
3,379
13,481
84,900
69,030
24,200
62,500
20,000
90,000
11,233
24.9
33.1
30.8
11.5
7.7
65.9
8.9
97.2
157.6
77.3
90.0
14.1
23.9
33.8
29.4
11.8
13.6
29.4
8.2
-.2
43.6
39.0
14.7
10.4
24.2
34.1
112.6
45.0
28.3
16.0
6.3
19.6
0
7.2
25.1
78.9
29.3
18.2
15.4
6.8
45.5
35.4
97.1
-10.9
45.5
13.3
51.3
130,000
12,300
91,600
16,300
253,000
876,000
8,300
42,200
35,300
47,700
62,700
28,800
1,438,000
18,200
6,600
578,300
224,900
6,600
7,900
39,100
5,100
5,100
10,900
8,600
18,500
15,900
28,500
42,800
605,600
12,500
46,300
41,200
9,400
3,100
86,700
156;500
133,200
15,600
3,900
14,400
123,500
93,500
47,700
55,700
29,100
102,000
17,000
Table 1--Continued
Population % Change Population % Change Populatior
County 1965 1965-70 1970 1970-75 1975
Orange 302,200 13.9 344,311 23.3 424,600
Osc.eola 21,300 18.6 25,267 45.2 36,700
Palm Beach* 279,900 11.5 312,000 53.1 477,800
Pasco* 40,800 32.4 54,000 141.1 130,200
Pinellas* 425,500 10.2 469,000 42.1 666,600
Polk 214,300 6.0 272,222 21.5 276,000
Putnam* 32,800 4.9 34,400 28.4 43,500
St. Johns* 32,200 2.8 33,100 21.4 40,200
St. Lucie* 46,700 8.4 50,600 36.6 69,100
Santa Rosa* 34,000 5.0 35,700 31.4 46,900
Sarasota* 92,300 17.4 109,000 49.7 163,200
Seminole 69,800 19.9 83,692 62.9 136,400
Sumter 13,900 6.7 14,839 38.8 20,600
Suwannee 17,000 -8.5 15,559 19.5 18,600
Taylor* 13,200 1.5 13,400, 8.9 14,600
Union 6,500 24.8 8,112 28.2 10,400
Volusia* 157,900 6.6 168,400 20.2 212,400
Wakulla* 5,700 0 5,700 54.4 8,800
Walton* 15,800 4.4 16,500 9.1 18,000
Washington 11,900 -3.7 11,454 23.1 14,100
FLORIDA 5,961,600 13.9 6,791,400 24.9 8,485,200
U.S. 194,300,000 5.4 204,800,000 4.3 213,600,000
Source: Florida Statistical Abstracts. 1976.
Indicates coastal counties
Indicates coastal counties.
S
Table 2--Fast growth industries in Florida for 1965, 1970 and 1975.
Rank Industrial Sector 1965 1970 1975 % Change
1965-75
1 Holding and Other Invest. Co. 213 891 4,211 1,877
2 Medical and Other Health Serv. 15,674 36,231 146,724 836
3 Educational Services 2,229 5,316 17,416 681
4 Legal Services 3,989 6,647 18,460 363
5 Transportation Services 1,443 2,982 5,841 303
6 Rubber and Misc. Plastic Prod. 2,750 6,161 9,367 240
7 Misc. Bus. Services 26,574 52,869 83,118 213
8 Ag. Services, Hunt., and Trap. 5,431 7,351 16,934 211
9 Real Estate 17,228 31,204 52,109 202
10 Amusement and Recreational Serv. 15,119 21,153 41,296 173
11 Ins. Agents, Brokers and Serv. 6,355 7,280 16,524 160
12 Auto Repair 8,540 12,548 20,778 142
13 Textile Mill Prod. 1,519 2,712 3,499 130
14 Eating and Drinking 66,700 101,174 147,703 121
15 Apparel and Other Finished Prod. 12,901 23,447 28,441 120
16 Banking 21,074 30,094 43,932 108
17 Communications 28,246 45,362 58,187 106
18 Machinery, Exc. Elect. 9,920 19,220 19,802 100
19 Security and Commod. Brokers 2,622 4,758 5,157 97
20 Food 47,570 64,727 93,290 96
21 Prof. and Scientific Inst. 3,354 4,715 6,544 95
22 Water Trans. 6,241 9,913 11,871 90
23 Elect. Mach., Equip & Supplies 19,588 30,262 37,218 90
24 Credit Agen. Other Than Banks 13,359 15,734 24,586 84
25 Retail Trade 387,654 526,754 713,847 79
26 Elect., Gas & Sanitary Serv. 13,927 18,910 25,000 79
27 Hotel and Other Lodging Places 41,679 54,704 72,519 74
28 Insurance Carriers 20,501 27,687 35,379 73
29 Printing, Pub. and Allied Ind. 17,569 24,362 30,425 73
30 Motor Freight, Transportation 17,478 25,244 30,016 72
31 General Merchandise 54,817 77,619 93,768 71
32 Wholesale Trade 95,055 119,629 156,644 65
33 Const., Spec., Trade Contr. 57,521 81,041 92,076 60
Florida 1,189,800 2154,054 2,659,214 123
U.S. 60,444,000 70664,000 76,985,000 27
Source: Florida Unemployment and Payroll Tabular, Research and
Statistics, Department of the Florida Industrial Commission, 1965, 1970,
1975.
portation Services. All five had growth rates of over 300 percent for
the 1965-1975 time period and provided 192,662 jobs. Note once again
the dominant role the service industries play in Florida's economy.
Shift-Share Analysis
The primary purpose of the shift-share model is to allow an orderly
treatment of large amounts of economic data so that economic change in
a region can be systematically compared to economic change in a reference
area (usually the state or nation). Since employment is used as the
unit of measure, the following explanation of shift-share will be pre-
sented in that context. However, given the availability of data, other
measures such as income or value added could be used.
Shift-share separates the change in local employment into three
components: (1) the change due to either state or national economic
growth (depending on which is used as a reference area), (2) the change
resulting from the type or mix of economic activity in the local area
relative to the reference area, and (3) the change resulting from the
growth characteristics of local businesses. These three changes are
designated respectively: national growth, industrial mix, and competitive
share. Shift-share does not explain why employment change occurred.
per se. It is merely a descriptive tool which examines local changes
relative to base area changes in a systematic way.
The first factor in shift-share analysis, national growth, measures
the change in the local economy (county or state in this study) in terms
of a change in the reference area (the nation), This factor focuses on
the question of how much local employment would have changed if each
local industry had changed at the same rate and in the same direction as
total employment in the reference area. This effect is determined by the
growth rate in reference area employment over the study period.
The second factor, the component or industrial-mix effect, measures
the distribution of rapidly growing industries in the local area relative
to the reference area. It is calculated by subtracting the reference
area growth rate from each industry's growth rate and then multiplying
these deviations by base year employment in the respective industries of
the local area.
The third factor, the local-share effect, measures the competitive
position of the local economy and each component (industry) in it,
relative to the reference area. The local-share effect, sometimes called
the distribution or competitive effect, measures whether local industries
are gaining or losing in their proportionate share of employment in a
particular industry relative to the reference area. Thus, it measures
the ability of the local economy to capture an increasing (decreasing)
share of industrial growth. Calculations for the local-share effect
are derived by either finding the residual after the determination of
the first two factors, or by taking the difference between local and
reference area growth rates for an industry and multiplying that dif-
ference by county employment in the industry during the base year.
The essence of the shift-share technique is to separate the change
in employment into three components: national or state share effect,
industrial mix and competitive share. A more detailed mathematical
explanation of shift-share analysis is presented in Appendix A.
Literature Review
The shift-share technique was originated in 1942 [2]. It received
modest use until Perloff, Dunn, Lampard and Muth employed it as a major
tool of analysis in their publication of Regions, Resources, and Economic
Growth [6]. Shift-share increased in popularity to the point where the
Office of Business Economics, U.S. Department of Commerce, used the
technique in 1965 in a study of 3102 local areas in the U.S. analyzed
in terms of 32 industries. This inauguration by a Federal agency of
shift-share analysis firmly established its presence in regional analysis.
Then, in 1967, shift-share was criticized on both theoretical and empirical
grounds by Houston [5]. His argument was that (1) the technique is devoid
of behavioral content, (2) only the comparative or local-share effect uses
regional information and, (3) the industrial mix and local share effect
may vary with the level of aggregation. In defense of shift-share Ashby
points out Houston's criticism arises because too much is expected from
the analysis [1]. Shift-share by itself is not a predictive tool, but
rather a descriptive tool, for organizing and standardizing data.
By incorporating other economic tools into the analysis it has been
documented that there is a place for shift-share in analyzing growth trends.
One method, used by Gordon and Darling, brings together shift-share analysis
with export base theory on the premise that growth in non-basic or residential)
sectors will follow growth of basic industries [4]. To this end, Gordon
and Darling quote Cosgrove, "When a comparative advantage (positive regional-
share coefficient) is established in basic industries, the economic processes
underlying the export base theory suggests the advantages in income and
employment are transmitted to non-basic industries. In other words, a
comparative advantage in basic industries suggests a relative advantage,
to a degree, will follow in residentiary industries."
A SHIFT-SHARE ANALYSIS OF FLORIDA
AND FLORIDA COUNTIES
Data
Employment was chosen as a measure of economic activity in this study
because it is a widely accepted and easily identified measure of economic
activity. Employment data are available by industry over time without
need for price level adjustments. The data were segregated into eighty
employment sectors (Table 3) and classified according to the Standard
Industrial Classification Manual, 1967. The data are reported in the
1965, 1970 and 1975 editions of the Florida Employment Payroll Tabular
Analysis of Employment covered by the Florida Unemployment Compensation
Law. This data series was initiated in 1948. National data were compiled
from Employment and Earnings, United States, 1965, 1970 and 1975, Bureau
of Labor Statistics. These data were compiled from reports of employment
payroll and contributions which were submitted quarterly by employers to
the Bureau of Unemployment Insurance, Department of Commerce,
During 1972 the Florida-Unemployment Compensation Law became applicable
to any employing unit which had one or more workers in employment in each
of twenty different weeks of a calendar year, or paid for service in employment
wages of $1,500 or more in any calendar quarter. This law also extended
coverage to include state government and non-profit organization workers.
The Florida Unemployment Law of 1956 was applicable to any employing unit
which had four or more workers in employment for twenty weeks of a calendar
year and which, in the same year, had four or more workers in eight different
Table 3--Two Digit Standard Industrial Classification (1967).
Number Name Number Name
Commercial Farms*
Agriculture Serv., Hunt & Trap
Forestry
Fisheries*
Other Agriculture
Metal Mining
Crude Petrol & Natural Gas
Non-Metallic Mining & Quarring
Other Mining
Bldg. Const., Gen. Contr.
Gen. Contr. Other Than Bldg.
Const., Spec. Trade Contr.
Other Const.
Ordinance & Acc.
Food & Kindred Prod.
Tobacco Mfg.
Textile Mill Prod.
Apparel & Other Finished Prod.
Lumber & Wood Prod. Exc. Furn.
Furn. & Fixtures
Paper & Allied Prod.
Printing, Pub. & Allied Ind.
Chemicals & Allied Prod.
Petrol. Refin. & Related Ind.
Rubber & Misc. Plastic Prod.
Leather & Leather Prod.
Stone, Clay & Glass Prod.
Primary Metal Ind.
Fabricated Metal Prod.
Machinery, Exc. Elect.
Elect. Mach., Equip & Supplies
Transportation Equip.
Prof. & Scientific Inst.
Misc. Mifg. Ind.
Other Mfg.
Local & Suburban Pass. Trans.
Motor Freight Trans.
Water Trans.
Air Trans.
Trans. Services
Comm.
Elect., Gas & Sanitary Serv.
Other Transp. & Public Util.
Wholesale Trade
Bldg. Mat., Hdwe. & Farm Equ.
General Merchandise
Food
Auto Dealers & Gas. Serv. Stat,
Apparel & Acc.
Furn,, Home Furn. & Eq.
Eating & Drinking
Misc. Retail
Other Retail
Trade
Banking
Credit Agen, Other Than Banks
Security & Commud. Brokers
Insurance Carriers
Ins. Agents, Brokers & Serv,
Real Estate
Comb. Fw. Ins., & Real Estate
Holding & Other Invest. Co.
Other Fin,, Ins. & Real Estate
Hotels & Other Lodging Places
Personal Services
Mis. Bus. Services
Auto, Repairs
Misc, Repair Services
Motion Pictures
Amusement & Rec. Services
Med. & Other Health Serv.
Legal Services
Educ. Services
Museums, Art Galleries, Etc,
Nonprofit Membership Organtz,
Misc. Services
Other Services
Federal Govt.
Other Non Manufact.
All Other Industries
"Other" is a listing for all indi
which are not reported individually.
is for the entire industry.
vidual categories (within an industry)
If "other" is the only entry, the figure
*Data coverage is grossly incomplete for these sectors in that the
Florida Employment and Payroll Tabular essentially covers non-agricultural
employment.
calendar weeks in the same calendar year. Prior to 1956 the Unemployment
Compensation Law was applicable to only those employing units which had a
payroll of $12,000 for a single calendar quarter of a calendar year in
which there had been eight or more workers in eight different calendar
weeks.
Certain workers are excluded from coverage because of type of
employment. These are mainly agricultural, domestic and self-employed
workers. Also, excluded are non-profit organizations with fewer than
four employees. Considered among the self-employed are insurance agents
or solicitors, real estate salesman or agents, and barbers whose remu-
neration is solely by way of commission. Improvements in agricultural
employment coverage were made in 1978, but these changes had no effect
on the 1965 to 1975 study period.
Approximately 90 percent of the nonagricultural wage and salary
workers in the state were covered by the Florida Unemployment Compensation
Law and by the UCFE program in 1974. Prior to 1972 approximately 77 percent
of the nonagricultural wage and salary workers in the state were covered
by the law.
There are advantages for this data source when using shift-share
analysis. First, annual estimates of employment by sector are readily
available at the state and county level. Second, information is needed
on location of employment rather than residence of the worker, as reported
by the Census of Population. Worker residence can lead to biased results
in rural areas due to a labor force commuting across county lines. The
latter is especially important since this study focuses on the structure
of a county's economy, rather than whether the resident, per se, holds a
job,
A data set was compiled for the 67 counties in Florida listing
employment for each of the eighty industries for 1965, 1970 and 1975.
The shift-share model was then ran separately for the state and then
for each county for three time periods (1965-1970, 1970-1975, and
1965-1975) with the nation as a reference.
There are certain data limitations which must be noted before
interpreting the results of the shift-share model. As previously noted,
agriculture is omitted except for those who voluntarily supply employment
information. In 1972, coverage was extended to include state government
and non-profit organization workers and coverage was again extended in
1974 to include local government workers. Thus, these three sectors suffer
from broken or discontinuation of the series of data. Furthermore,
domestic and self-employed workers and non-profit organizations with
fewer than four employees are not covered during this period.
Shift-share is primarily a descriptive tool of regional analysis
which separates change in activity into three subcategories. But, even
as a descriptive tool, these data limitations must be considered. In terms
of the effects these data deficiencies will have on the shift-share model,
emphasis must be placed in two areas. First, are those sectors such as
Agriculture, Hotel-Motel workers and other self-employed where little or
no reporting has occurred. The results of these shift-share components
may be said to be insignificant due to lack of accurate data. However,
industries which entered into the data series in 1972 and again in 1974
may be said to have an inflating value on two of the three shift-share
components. The national-growth and industrial-mix component will be
larger, to a certain degree, due to the discontinuation of the data series.
This must be considered when reviewing the shift-share results. However,
when dealing with community development, it is the third component (which
is unaffected) which is considered to provide the most useful information
to planners.
Shift-Share Analysis of Florida
In this section, shift-share analysis is initially employed to compare
the economic growth of Florida (as measured by employment levels) to that
of the nation as a whole. Results are reported for all eighty sectors
and then for the 22 manufacturing sectors for the three time periods
previously mentioned.
Beginning with the 1965-1970 time span (Table. 4), (12) Constructiqn,
Special Trade Contractors, (15) Food and Kindred Production, (44) Wholesale
Trade, (46) General Merchandise, (47) Food, (48) Auto Dealers and Gasoline
Service Stations, (51) Eating and Drinking, (54) Trade, (64) Hotels and
Other Lodging Places, and (78) Federal Government all have large, positive
national-growth components. With the exception of (11) General Contractors,
Other than Building and (23) Chemical and Allied Products, strong positive
industrial mix components do not appear until after the manufacturing sectors,
They are, (39) Air Transportation, (41) Communications, (44) Wholesale
Trade, (46) General Merchandise, (50) Furniture and Home Furnishing
Equipment, (51) Eating and Drinking, (55) Banking, (66) Miscellaneous
Business Services, (71) Medical and Other Health Services, and (76) Misc-
ellaneous Services. Of these industries, (11) General Contractors, Other
than Building, (23) Chemicals and Allied Products, and (41) Communications
are the only sectors in which the industrial-mix experienced a change of
sign from positive to negative during the second five year period.
Table 4--Shift-Share Components of Employment Change in Florida Industry,
1965-1970.
Industry National Industry Local
Growth Mix Share
1 Commercial Farms 63.03 -63.03 311.00
2 Agricultural Serv., Hunt. &Trap. 579.20 -579.20 1920.00
3 Forestry 8.53 -8.53 12.00
4 Fisheries 100.78 -100.78 -292.00
5 Other Agriculture 0.0 0.0 0.0
6 Metal Mining 43.41 12.78 -164.19
7 Crude Petrol & Natural Gas 67.40 -382.28 286.88
8 Non-Metallic Mining & Quarrying 851.26 -1104.45 -250.82
9 Other Mining 0.0 0.0 1.00
10 Bldg. Contr., Gen. Contr. 3953.75 -5407.87 15706.12
11 Gen, Contr. Other Than Bldg. 3058.44 1602.07 -1490.52
12 Const., Spec. Trade Contr. 6134.48 -3422.02 20807.54
13 Other Const. 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 Ordnance & Acc. 1179.74 -589.39 -1225.35
15 Food & Kindred Prod. 4486.02 -3064.68 2478.66
16 Tobacco Mfg. 557.13 -850.47 -80.66
17 Textile Mill Prod. 162.00 -87.16 1118.17
18 Apparel & Other Finished Prod. 1375.86 -1050.28 10220.42
19 Lumber & Wood Prod. Exc. Furn. 1328.83 -1859.22 1259.39
20 Furn. & Fixtures 797.40 -260.72 1134.31
21 Paper & Allied Prod. 1586.70 105.30 1284.99
22 Printing, Pub. & Allied Ind. 1873.69 445.35 4473.95
23 Chemicals & Allied Prod. 2081.87 1249.88 -2151.74
24 Petrol. Refin. & Related Ind. 71.99 -18.90 371.91
25 Rubber & Misc. Plastic Prod. 293.28 343.66 2774.06
26 Leather & Leather Prod.- 204.55 -340.62 1308.07
27 Stone, Clay & Glass Prod. 1432.17 -1068.81 2553.64
28 Primary Metal Ind. 294.03 -262.87 202.84
29 Fabricated Metal Ind. 1708.71 -109.69 4531.98
30 Machinery, Exc. Elect. 1057.94 390.21 7851.85
31 Elect. Mach., Equip. & Supplies 2089.01 735.04 7849.94
32 Transportation Equip. 3003.62 -1642.13 4106.50
33 Prof. & Scientific Inst. 357.70 405.45 597.86
34 Misc. Mfg. Ind. 378.71 -381.22 2076.51
35 Other Mfg. 0.0 0.0 0.0
36 Local & Suburban Pass. Trans. 599.47 -1058.87 2007.41
37 Motor Freight Trans. 1863.99 489.73 5412.28
38 Water Trans. 665.59 -129.62 3136.03
39 Air Trans. 2321.19 5603.64 1771.17
40 Trans. Services 153.89 -113.77 1498.88
41 Comm. 3012.37 4687.88 9415.75
42 Elect., Gas & Sanitary Serv. 1485.28 -24.13 3521.85
43 Other Trans. & Public Util. 1.28 -0.85 7.57
44 Wholesale Trade 10137.39 6933.47 7503.13
45 Bldg. Mat. Hdwe., & Farm Equip. 1790.19 698.48 1047.33
Table 4--(Continued)
National Industry Local
Industry Growth Mix Share
General Merchandise 5846.10
Food 5073.23
Auto Dealers & Gas. Serv. St. 4837.96
Apparel & Acc. 1696.34
Furn., Home Furn., & Eq. 1394.95
Eating and Drinking 7113.39
Misc. Retail 3452.82
Other Retail 0.0
Trade 41342.37
Banking 2247.49
Credit Agenc. Other Than Banks 1424.71
Security & Commod. Brokers 279.63
Insurance Carriers 2186.38
Ins. Agents, Brokers & Serv. 677.75
Real Estate 1837.32
Comb. Fw. Ins., & Real Estate 67.40
Holding & Other Invest. Co. 22.72
Other Fin., Ins. & Real Estate 0.0
Hotel & Other Lodging Places 4444.96
Personal Services 3018.13
Misc. Bus. Services 2834.05
Auto. Repairs 910.88
Misc. Repair Services 486.74
Motion Pictures 534.52
Amusement & Rec. Services 1612.41
Med. & Other Health Serv. 1671.59
Legal Services 425,42
Educ. Services 237.72
Museums, Art Galleries, Etc. 26.45
Nonprofit Membership Org. 352.47
Misc. Services 2315.32
Other Services 0.0
Federal Govt. 6648.09
Other Non Manufact. 0.53
All Other Industries 0.0
TOTAL
168231,69
7734.97
3440.55
966.33
429.00
7893.81
12734.27
1321.26
0.0
-87104.50
4857.01
212.33
1138.33
1058.41
502.04
285.03
64.44
126.38
0.0
104.07
-2173.48
9185.93
936.34
587.47
-304.46
1621.91
4983.42
831.36
248.05
87.71
1988.57
7615.33
0.0
1923.90
-0.53
0.0
-16983.26
9292.92
8643.22
7026.70
4157.66
-4274.76
14626.32
7582.92
0.0
184862.06
1915.50
737.97
718.04
3941.20
-254.78
11853.64
-142.84
528.90
0.0
8476.96
2814.35
14275.02
2159.78
1071.79
804.94
2799.69
13901.98
1401.22
2601.23
15.84
-1293.04
-5959.65
5.00
6362.00
-5.00
0.0
425550.13
Source: A Shift-share analysis of the Florida economy based on
employment data from the Florida Employment and Payroll
Tabular, Research and Statistics Department of the
Florida Industrial Commission: 1965-1970.
With only thirteen exceptions the competitive-share components are
positive. Leaders in the competitive share component are; (2) Agricultural
Services, Hunting and Trapping, (10) Building Construction, General
Contractors, (18) Apparel and Other Finished Products, (41) Communications,
(46) General Merchandise, (51) Eating and Drinking, (54) Trade, (60) Real
Estate; (66) Miscellaneous Business Services, (71) Medical and Other Health
Services, and (78) Federal Government. Of these industries only one,
(10) Building Construction, General Contractors, had its competitive-share
component become negative during the second time period.
The economic slow down which occurred in the latter part of the
1970-1975 time period is picked up by all the components of the shift-share
model as displayed in Table 5. Note the shrinkage of employment in all
industries relative to the 1965-1970 time period displayed in Table 4.
However, it should be noted that the totals on industrial-mix and
competitive-share components in both time periods as well as the ten
year span are positive.
Table 5--Shift-Share Components of Employment Change in Florida Industry,
1970-1975.
Ind y National Industry Local
Industry Growth Mix Share
1 Commercial Farms 34.69 -34.69 3128.00
2 Agriculture Serv., Hunt.,& Trap. 282.69 -282.69 9583.00
3 Forestry 3.54 3.54 176.00
4 Fisheries 25.11 -25.11 700.00
5 Other Agriculture 0.0 0.0 0.0
6 Metal Mining 11.50 -19.38 257.88
7 Crude Petrol & Natural Gas 23.23 52.22 514.55
8 Non-Metallic Mining & Quarrying 287.57 -964.46 592.89
9 Other Mining 0.04 0.40 -1.44
10 Bldg. Contr., Gen. Contr. 1973.76 1320.38 -207.14
11 Gen. Contr. Other Than Bldg. 1224.75 .-3148.25 6049.50
12 Const. Spec. Trade Contr. 3116.52 1435.32 6483.14
13 Other Const. 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 Ordnance & Acc. 400.98 -3675.40 -7152.58
15 Food & Kindred Prod. 1767.60 -4826.06 5526.46
16 Tobacco Mfg. 186.51 -229.49 -1238.02
17 Textile Mill Prod. 104.29 -282.23 964.93
18 Apparel & Other Finished Prod. 901.68 -2210.02 6272.34
19 Lumber & Wood Prod. Exc. Furn. 507.16 -1038.95 4244.79
20 Furn. & Fixtures 351.80 -534.80 -1490.00
21 Paper & Allied Prod. 686.63 -2379.09 -696.55
22 Printing, Pub. & Allied Ind. 936.87 -1531.44 6657.57
23 Chemicals & Allied Prod. 796.08 -1654.45 3835.37
24 Petrol. Refin. & Related Ind. 42.30 -11.36 41.06
25 Rubber & Misc. Plastic Prod. 236.93 -58.93 3028.00
26 Leather & Leather Prod. 118.83 -794.74 1228.91
27 Stone, Clay & Glass Prod. 628.60 -1248.91 1233.31
28 Primary Metal Ind. 115.02 -404.89 677.87
29 Fabricated Metal Ind. 851.92 -1658.91 3528.99
30 Machinery, Exc. Elect. 739.13 285.43 -442.56
31 Elect. Mach., Equip. & Supplies 1163.76 -3580.42 9372.65
32 Transportation Equip. 1293.36 -4514,93 794.57
33 Prof. & Scientific Inst. 181.32 -19.70 1667.38
34 Misc. Mfg. Ind. 216.32 -473.81 187.49
35 Other Mfg. 0.0 0.0 0.0
36 Local & Suburban Pass. Trans. 275.69 -932.54 965.84
37 Motor Freight Trans. 970.79 -1169.14 4970.35
38 Water Trans. 381.22 -591.68 2168.47
39 Air Trans. 1209.87 3508.77 -4199.64
40 Trans. Services 114.68 678.11 2039.21
41 Comm. 1744.45 -15.14 11095.68
42 Elect., Gas & Sanitary Serv, 727.21 566.38 4796.41
43 Other Trans. & Public Util. 0.77 -0.29 18.52
44 Wholesale Trade 4600.47 5593.95 26820.58
45 Bldg. Mat., Hdwe., & Farm Equip. 781.51 819.05 2084.44
Table 5--(Continued)
Ind y National Industry Local
Industry Growth Mix Share
General Merchandise
Food
Auto Dealers & Gas. Serv. St.
Apparel & Acc.
Furn., Home Furn. & Eq.
Eating & Drinking
Misc. Retail
Other Retail
Trade
Banking
Credit Agenc. Other Than Banks
Security & Commod. Brokers
Insurance Carriers
Ins. Agents, Brokers & Serv.
Real Estate
Comb. Fw. Ins., & Real Estate
Holding & Other Invest. Co.
Other Fin., Ins. & Real Est.
Hotel & Other Lodging Places
Personal Services
Misc. 3us., Services
Auto Repairs
Misc. Repair Services
Motion Pictures
Amusement & Rec. Services
Med. & Other Health Serv.
Legal Services
Educ. Serivces
Museums, Art Galleries, Etc.
Nonprofit Membership Org.
Misc. Services
Other Services
Federal Government
Other Non Manufact.
All Other Industries
TOTAL
2987.70
2489.15
2237.96
853.30
695.83
3890.76
1720.26
0.0
20256.93
1157.30
605.07
182.97
1064.74
279.96
1199.99
23.88
34.26
0.0
2103.74
1229.02
2033.14
482.55
258.04
232.54
813.46
1393.30
255.62
204.43
14.54
167.40
987.59
0.19
2971.55
0.0
0.0
82844.31
1575.90
5447.55
885.20
1284.31
1499.79
30376.05
6491.94
0.0
58931.67
5378.25
2215.17
-857.20
170.22
1160.74
5872.47
-573.60
1102.24
0.0
14402.31
-6440.14
12695.41
363.57
563.32
102.35
3695.12
11671.53
2641.07
111.41
55,31
1188.32
7811.04
-0.19
-1743.21
0.0
0.0
144021.75
11513.40
20626.29
13737.84
7670.39
5555.38
12262.17
12592.79
0.0
107904.31
7302.44
6031.75
1073.23
6457.05
7803.29
13832.54
702.72
2183.49
0.0
1307.94
11072.13
15520.45
7383.88
2946.64
-79.89
15634.41
97428.13
8916.30
11784.16
76.15
8123.27
10519.37
-5.00
4381.66
0.0
0.0
548535.69
Source: A Shift-share analysis of the Florida economy based on
employment data from the Florida Employment and Payroll
Tabular, Research and Statistics Department of the Florida
Industrial Commission: 1970-1975.
Table 6--Shift-Share Components of Employment Change in Florida Industry,
1965-1975.
Indusy National Industry Local
Industry Growth Mix Share
1 Commercial Farms 88.18 -88.18 3439.00
2 Agriculture Serv., Hunt., & Trap. 810.33 -810.33 11503.00
3 Forestry. 11.94 -11.94 188.00
4 Fisheries 141.00 -141.00 408.00
5 Other Agriculture 0.0 0,0 0.0
6 Metal Mining 60.73 -16.75 98.03
7 Crude Petrol & Natural Gas 94.30 -369.57 837.27
8 Non-Metallic Mining & Quarrying 1190.95 -2143.73 364.78
9 Other Mining 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 Bldg. Contr., Gen. Contr. 5531.48 -4699.51 16507.03
11 Gen. Contr. Other Than Bldg. 4278.90 .-1631.91 4649.01
12 Const. Spec. Trade Contr. 8582.42 -2486.82 28459.39
13 Other Const. 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 Ordnance & Acc. 1650.51 -4719.38 -7993.13
15 Food & Kindred Prod. 6276.16 -7748.35 7840.19
16 Tobacco Mfg. 779.45 -1116.48 -1317.97
17 Textile Mill Prod. 226.64 -256.38 2009.73
18 Apparel & Other Finished Prod. 1924.89 -2337.36 15922.46
19 Lumber & Wood Prod. Exc. Furn. 1859.09 -2870.53 5452.43
20 Furn. & Fixtures 1115.61 -739.23 -378.38
21 Paper & Allied Prod. 2219.87 -2098.51 466.64
22 Printing, Pub. & Allied Ind. 2621.38 -787,72 11022.34
23 Chemicals & Allied Prod. 2912.63 -528.48 1772.85
24 Petrol. Refin. & Related Ind. 100.71 -27.15 423.43
25 Rubber & Misc. Plastic Prod. 410.31 324.48 5882.20
26 Leather & Leather Prod. 286.18 -812.03 2250.85
27 Stone, Clay & Glass Prod. 2003.67 -2163.72 3690.05
28 Primary Metal Ind. 411.36 -650.41 861.05
29 Fabricated Metal Ind. 2390.56 -1433.44 7895.88
30 Machinery, Exc. Elect. 1480.11 574.04 7827.85
31 Elect. Mach., Equip. & Supplies 2922.63 -1888.35 16595.72
32 Transportation Equip. 4202.21 -5668.93 4507.72
33 Prof. & Scientific Inst. 500.43 403.84 2285.73
34 Misc. Mfg. Ind. 529.83 -694.77 2168.95
35 Other Mfg. 0.0 0.0 0.0
36 Local & Suburban Pass. Trans. 838.68 -1771.01 2789.33
37 Motor Freight Trans. 2607.81 -409.92 10340,11
38 Water Trans. 931.19 -539.10 5237.91
39 Air Trans. 3247.45 9130.38 -2162.83
40 Trans. Services 215.30 219.12 3936.58
41 Comm. 4214.44 4856.16 20870,38
42 Elect., Gas & Sanitary Serv, 2077.98 435.84 8559.18
43 Other Trans. & Public Util. 1.79 -1.06 26.27
44 Wholesale Trade 14182.68 12443.20 34963.11
45 Bldg. Mat., Hdwe., & Farm Equip. 2504.56 1502.19 3214.26
Table 6--(Continued)
y National Industry Local
Industry Growth Mix Share
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
TOTAL
General Merchandise
Food
Auto Dealers & Gas. Serv. St.
Apparel & Acc.
Furn., Home Furn. & Eq.
Eating & Drinking
Misc. Retail
Other Retail
Trade
Banking
Credit Agenc. Other Than Banks
Security & Commod. Brokers
Insurance Carriers
Ins. Agents, Brokers & Serv.
Real Estate
Comb. Fw. Ins., & Real Estate
Holding & Other Invest. Co.
Other Fin., Ins. & Real Est.
Hotel & Other Lodging Places
Personal Services
Misc. Bus., Services
Auto Repairs
Misc. Repair Services
Motion Pictures
Amusement & Rec. Services
Med. & Other Health Serv.
Legal Services
Educ. Serivces
Museums, Art Galleries, Etc.
Nonprofit Membership Org.
Misc. Services
Other Services
Federal Government
Other Non Manufact.
All Other Industries
8178.97
7097.68
6768.54
2373.26
1951.60
9951.97
4830.66
0.0
57839.93
3144.35
1993.23
391.22
3053.85
948.20
2570.50
94.30
31.78
0.0
6218.71
4222.50
3964.97
1274.36
680.97
747.82
2255.83
2338.64
595.18
332.58
37.00
493.12
3239.24
0.0
9300.99
0.75
0.0
235364.06
9419.82
8292.99
1781.81
1489.16
10051.50
39208.70
6763.53
0.0
-52204.33
10079.72
2331.77
454.26
1245.10
1722.70
3937.65
-638.62
579.19
0.0
12278.64
-8130.08
18306.74
1273.34
1083.40
-227.44
4890.34
12368.18
2947.65
314.48
144.08
3606.35
17531.90
0.0
398.20
-0.75
0.0
90027.06 1026810.69
Source: A Shift-share analysis of the Florida economy based on
employment data from the Florida Employment and Payroll
Tabular, Research and Statistics Department of the
Florida Industrial Commission: 1965-1975.
21352.20
30329.32
21141.65
12228.57
761.89
31842.30
21567.79
0.0
320557.38
9633.93
6902.00
1689.52
10574.04
7498.09
28372.83
686.32
3387.02
0.0
12342.64
13427.57
33772.25
9689.29
4149.62
769.63
19030.81
116343.13
10928.16
14539.94
94.92
6427.53
2517.85
0.0
10844.80
-5.00
0.0
Shift-Share Analysis of Florida Counties
This section of the analysis examines employment changes in Florida
counties by using the shift-share model to compare changes in individual
counties to national averages. Results from the shift-share analysis are
presented in Tables 7, 8, and 9 for the three time periods, 1965-1970,
1970-1975 and 1965-1975. Since there are marked differences in growth
rates for coastal and non-coastal counties, they are listed separately
in Tables 7-9. The three shift-share components (all industries) plus
the summed "net shift" representing the shift of economic activity of
the county relative to the nation are listed for each county.
The net shift component represents the differential between actual
county employment levels and the relative share of the county reflected
by the national component. Thus, the industrial mix and competitive share
components determine the size and the sign of the net shift. The 1965-1975
results summarized in Table 9 indicate that only three counties experienced
a negative net shift; Calhoun, Gadsden and Liberty. This means that these
are the only counties in Florida whose growth rates were slower than that
of the nation,
When observing the shorter time periods in Tables 7 and 8, only one
county had its net shift change from positive to negative; Brevard. Meanwhile,
five counties went from negative net shifts to positive; Flagler, Franklin,
Gadsden, Glades and Lafayette.
Coastal counties with negative industrial mix components for the
1965-1975 time period include Charlotte, Clay, Dixie, Flagler, Franklin,
Gulf, Levy, Pasco, Putnam, Taylor and Walton, Non-coastal counties with
Table 7--Shift-Share Components of Employment Change in Florida Counties,
1965-1970.
Coastal National Industry Competitive Net
Counties Growth Mix Share Shift
Bay 104 917 3461 4377
Brevard 419 10128 -2742 7386
Broward 685 9002 69973 78975
Charlotte 4 -1 3952 3951
Citrus 10 84 758 842
Clay 14 -64 999 935
Collier 33 307 6312 6619
Dade 2370 29766 121304 151570
Desoto 9 11 274 285
Dixie 4 -35 258 223
Duval 1046 9518 22215 31733
Escambia 326 3938 '6886 10824
Flagler 4 -30 -138 -168
Franklin 6 -116 23 -93
Gulf 13 5 307 312
Hernando 14 47 1023 1070
Hillsborouqh 855 4559 39150 43709
Indian River 44 185 1843 2028
Jefferson 5 31 102 133
Lee 106 947 10554 11501
Levy 11 -9 629 620
Manatee 81 -20 6848 6828
Martin 21 222 2311 2533
Monroe 66 724 993 1717
Nassau 26 176 1492 1668
Okaloosa 94 1546 2904 4450
Palm Beach 453 3819 33425 37244
Pasco 29 -509 4657 4148
Pinellas 634 7758 33258 41016
Putnam 41 -30 585 555
St. Johns 38 266 468 734
St. Lucie 59 108 3163 3271
Santa Rosa 26 122 1010 1132
Sarasota 149 2002 11382 13384
Taylor 21 -11 369 358
Volusia 218 2527 4143 6670
Wakulla 4 -2 -51 -53
Walton 10 58 246 304
Table 7 (Continued)
Non-Coastal National Industry Competitive Net
Counties Growth Mix Share Shift
Alachua 120 360 6796 1096
Baker 2 -25 237 212
Bradford 11 50 151 201
Calhoun 16 130 -1937 -1807
Columbia 33 386 704 990
Gadsden 34 -59 -799 -858
Gilchrist 1 -11 161 150
Glades 3 -3 -137 -140
Hamilton 6 -15 639 626
Hardee 9 -105 268 163
Hendry 11 59 3 62
Highlands 22 70 1357 1427
Holmes
Jackson 30 -61 509 448
Lafayette 1 -7 3 -4
Lake 73 104 3449 3553
Leon 116 853 6849 7702
Liberty 10 99 1398 1497
Madison 2 -14 1635 1621
Marion 87 237 4362 4599
Okeechobee 6 16 561 577
Orange 593 3751 26942 30693
Osceola 17 94 1345 1439
Polk 375 2773 4649 7422
Seminole 7 279 5187 5466
Sumter 7 476 837 1313
Suwannee 15 -28 1479 1451
Union 2 -12 59 47
Washington 7 44 75 119
Source: A Shift-share analysis of the Florida economy based on
employment data from the Florida Employment and Payroll
Tabular, Research and Statistics Department of the Florida
Industrial Commission: 1965-1970.
Table 8--Shift-Share Components of Employment Change in Florida Counties,
1970-1975.
Coastal Counties National Industry Competitive Net
Growth Mix Share Shift
Bay 1257 2747 3477 6224
Brevard 4454 6118 -6126 -8
Broward 11341 16977 58330 75307
Charlotte 278 375 3927 4302
Citrus 149 148 2723 2871
Clay 187 2016 1938 3954
Collier 714 968 5178 6146
Dade 31864 91985 -5329 86656
Desoto 102 674 54 728
Dixie 54 -24 171 147
Duval 11928 51594 -14283 37313
Escambia 3771 7353 6380 13733
Flagler 25 -3 1238 1235
Franklin 56 1760 -1501 259
Gulf 143 -115 291 176
Hernando 199 115 963 1078
Hillsborough 10827 71471 -17088 54383
Indian River 546 874 4233 5107
Jefferson 57 10 365 375
Lee 1712 4081 34136 38217
Levy 144 -57 227 170
Manatee 1186 12088 -441 11647
Martin 354 129 5727 6756
Monroe 739 2418 1583 4001
Nassau 349 708 518 1226
Okaloosa 117.0 1363 4744 6107
Palm Beach 6595 23777 11768 35545
Pasco 533 10258 1639 11897
Pinellas 8553 19878 3487 23365
Putnam 431 1413 203 1616
St. Johns 409 1167 2156 3323
St. Lucie 760 6260 -1484 4776
Santa Rosa 320 -7 1392 1385
Sarasota 2234 4160 10220 14380
Taylor 224 -82 757 675
Volusia 2490 8888 10050 18938
Wakulla 34 4 822 826
Walton 90 90 593 683
Table 8 (Continued)
Non-Coastal National Industry Competitive Net
Counties Growth Mix Share Shift
Alachua 1579 9874 784 10658
Baker 36 6 299 305
Bradford 122 24 -20 4
Calhoun 46 3 596 599
Columbia 373 345 1749 2094
Gadsden 383 2519 -3398 -879
Gilchrist 16 17 140 157
Glades 18 -11 553 542
Hamilton 95 -28 1459 1431
Hardee 100 1019 -24 995
Hendry 105 41 1605 1646
Highlands 297 1166 -1660 2826
Holmes 44 6 762 768
Jackson 318 1961 126 2087
Lafayette 7 -4 210 206
Lake 917 6421 16695 23116
Leon 1576 4414 7495 11909
Liberty 21 -29 -85 114
Madison 116 7 340 347
Marion 1111 5905 776 6681
Okeechobee 89 441 647 1081
Orange 7532 29919 23161 53080
Osceola 248 915 3567 4482
Polk 4034 56108 -28102 28006
Seminole 842 4508 10564 15072
Sumter 114 15 850 865
Suwannee 229 931 -505 398
Union 19 -23 364 341
Washington 76 -21 383 362
Source: A Shift-share analysis of the Florida economy based on
employment data from the Florida Employment and Payroll
Tabular, Research and Statistics Department of the Florida
Industrial Commission: 1970-1975.
Table 9--Shift-Share Components of Employment Change in Florida Counties,
1965-1975.
National Industrial Competitive Net
Coastal Counties Growth Mix Share Shift
Bay 1096 1512 9345 10866
Brevard 4425 16077 -8252 7825
Broward 7243 16890 142175 159065
Charlotte 43 -15 8508 8493
Citrus 108 203 3561 3764
Clay 144 -73 5020 4947
Collier 346 792 12374 13166
Dade 25054 57373 190035 247408
Desoto 93 47 983 1030
Dixie 44 -76 459 383
Duval 11051 16483 54483 38000
Escambia 3441 4606 20607 16001
Flagler 39 -59 1114 1055
Franklin 68 -45 205 160
Gulf 137 -130 637 507
Hernando 148 84 2129 2045
Hillsborough 9034 12081 88659 76578
Indian River 467 505 6752 7257
Jefferson 54 40 477 517
Lee 1121 2028 48387 50415
Levy 118 -22 850 828
Manatee 853 806 19081 18887
Martin 222 312 8230 8542
Monroe 701 1621 4200 5821
Nassau 274 26 2968 2994
Okaloosa 995 2299 8528 8527
Palm Beach 4793 7830 67216 75047
Pasco 311 -135 16430 16295
Pinellas 6703 13766 84490 98256
Putnam 439 -114 2319 2205
St. Johns 403 584 3519 4103
St. Lucie 620 749 7497 8246
Santa Rosa 277 65 2521 2586
Sarasota 1573 3634 24941 28575
Taylor 224 -54 1109 1055
Volusia 2304 5111 20901 26012
Wakulla 41 -29 799 770
Walton 110 86 919 1005
Table 9--(Continued)
Non-Coastal National Industry Competitive Net
Counties Growth Mix Share Shift
Alachua 1265 1424 16824 18248
Baker 25 -37 567 530
Bradford 122 100 117 217
Calhoun 172 334 -1653 -1319
Columbia 345 355 2791 3146
Gadsden 481 156 -1944 -1788
Gilchrist 8 -7 324 317
Glades 29 -29 423 394
Hamilton 61 6 2119 2125
Hardee 99 26 1142 1168
Hendry 112 101 1611 1712
Highlands 233 311 4029 4340
Holmes
Jackson 322 59 2503 2562
Lafayette 8 -12 215 203
Lake 776 759 26125 26884
Leon 1226 2144 17934 20078
Liberty 111 93 -1586 -1493
Madison 19 -44 2111 2067
Marion 919 1086 10472 11558
Okeechobee 60 51 1649 1700
Orange 6266 7991 77643 85634
Osceola 178 289 5719 6008
Polk 3959 9480 26397 35877
Seminole 567 804 20065 20869
Sumter 69 18 1379 1397
Suwannee 156 46 1919 1965
Union 17 -35 426 391
Washington 76 4 493 497
Source: A Shift-share analysis of the Florida economy based on
employment data from the Florida Employment Payroll
Tabular, Research and Statistics Division of the Florida
Industrial Commission: 1965-1975.
the same characteristics include Baker, Gilchrist, Glades, Lafayette,
Madison, Union and Washington. Though the range of population size as
of 1975 for these eighteen counties went as high as 130,200 (Pasco),
the average was approximately 20,000 with eleven of these counties under
15,000. Although results are not reported in detail here, industries
which displayed a strong negative industrial mix in those counties for
the 1965-1975 period were, (10) Building Contractors, General Contractors,
(15) Food and Kindred Products, (19) Lumber and Wood Production, except
Furniture, (35) Other Manufacturing and, (54) Trade. It appears that
relatively small counties possess an overall negative industrial mix,
apparently due to their lack of diversification.
For the 1965-75 time span, there is only one coastal county with
a negative competitive share, (Brevard) and three non-coastal counties
displaying similar characteristics (Calhoun, Gadsen and Liberty). This
indicates that over the entire ten year span, the state of Florida,
relative to the nation, has had a comparative advantage in gaining in-
dustry. Ten counties went from positive to negative competitive shares
during the two five-year intervals. The coastal counties were Dade,
Duval, Franklin, Hillsborough, Manatee, St. Lucie; and the non-coastal
counties were: Bradford, Hardee, Polk, and Suwannee. Meanwhile, Flagler
(coastal), Calhoun and Glades (non-coastal) made the change over from
negative to positive competitive shares.
Trends in Eighteen Major Sectors
Detailed presentation of the shift-share analysis for all eighty
industries in each of Florida's sixty-seven counties is not practical
because of the voluminous tables. To provide a general overview of the
results of the analysis, the eighty industries were collapsed into
eighteen major industrial categories. Trends in each of these eighteen
major industries are summarized below.
Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. It is well known that large produc-
tivity gains in the nation's agriculture have been accompanied by movements
of labor out of agriculture. However, employment data based on workers
covered by the Florida Unemployment Compensation Law do not adequately
reflect farm operator self employment nor hired farm workers on small
operations. Consequently, these data are generally referred to as covering
nonagricultural employment and no interpretation for agriculture was
made in this study.
Mining. From 1965-1970 employment in mining generally decreased in the
nation and in Florida. Perhaps because of the energy situation and the
renewed interest in coal, employment in mining increased nationwide from
1970-1975. In Florida, many counties reported an increase in mining
employment during this latter period, but two areas, one in north central
Florida and the other in the extreme southern portion of the state,
reported declines.
Other Non-durable Manufacturing. Over the 1965-1975 period, non-durable
manufacturing employment in the nation grew more slowly than the national
average increase for all industries. However, many central Florida counties
and southern coastal counties experienced increasing relative shares
of employment in non-durable manufacturing other than foods. In addition,
during the 1970-1975 period several north Florida rural counties experienced
more rapid employment gains in these industries than the nation,
Construction. From 1965-1970 employment in construction for the nation
was relatively slow growing. Florida, however, faired well with increasing
employment in a majority of both the coastal and non-coastal counties.
Nationally, a turn around occurred in the construction industry during
1970-1975 time period which transformed it into a fast growth industry.
Increasing employment occurred in all but eight Florida counties, two
of which were Broward and Dade. For the ten year period spanning 1965-
1975, all but nine counties showed increasing employment in the construction
industry. Gains in this industry were reported throughout the state
as construction boomed to meet the demand created by the enormous
population influx during the decade.
Food and Kindred Product Manufacturing, Nationwide, this industry was
experiencing growth faster than the national average for all industries
during the 1965-1970 period. However, within the state approximately
half the counties experienced declining employment and all but two of
the remaining counties had zero employment level in Food and Kindred
Product Manufacturing. During 1970-1975 the industry dropped below the
national average growth rate but showed increased employment in several
southern coastal and central counties. Over the decade covered in this
study, nearly all of Florida's counties showed declining employment in
Food and Kindred Product Manufacturing while nationally it had a growth
rate greater than that of the national average.
Durable Manufacturing. Over all three time periods, durable manufacturing
at the national level was growing slower than the national average for
all industries. Statewide, for the ten year period, almost all the
counties south of Marion county experienced increasing employment.
Meanwhile counties on the far western tip of the panhandle were, with
few exceptions, the only northern counties which did not display declining
employment during the decade. Manufacturing also showed increased
employment in the northern counties of Duval, Clay and Flagler.
Transportation, Communication. In a state growing as rapidly as Florida
it comes as no surprise that these sectors experienced increasing employment
in nearly all counties in all three time periods. During the first time
period Gadsden, Wakulla, Seminole and Hendry counties had declining employ-
ment. During the second time period Walton and Bradford displayed similar
slow growth characteristics. However, during the combined ten-year period
no county showed declining employment, though national growth in these
industries was relatively slow growing in all three periods.
Wholesale Trade. At the national level this sector grew faster than the
national average for all industries during all three time periods. During
the 1965-1970 period, approximately half of Florida's counties displayed
increasing employment in this industry and coastal counties appeared to
be favored in this growth. During 1970-1975, a majority of the counties
had increasing growth rates. The overall ten year period saw coastal
counties, and in particular southern coastal counties, to be favored in
this industry.
Building Materials and Farm Equipment. During the first time period
these industries, at the national level, grew slower than the national
average for all industries. South and central Florida counties experienced
increasing employment while the panhandle had a mixture of increasing and
decreasing employment and northeastern coastal counties were all decreasing
employment. During the second five-year interval, national growth in these
sectors was increasing. All previously declining counties on the north-
eastern coast reversed themselves and several southern counties changed to
declining employment. For the ten year period, Building Materials and
Farm Equipment were on the decline nationally. In Florida, a clear
majority of the counties had increasing employment in these industries.
Only three coastal counties and eight non-coastal counties had declining
employment.
Food Retailers. From 1965-1970, food retailers nationwide were on the
decline while Florida enjoyed mostly increasing employment with a few
exceptions, mainly in northern counties. The second five-year period
from 1970-1975 nationally, saw food retailers grow faster than the
national average. Escambia county was the only county in the state
with declining employment in this sector. For the ten-year period, the
vast increase in Florida's population evidently is partially responsible
for all but two counties (Gadsden and Hamilton) having increasing employment
in this industry.
General Merchandise. Nationwide, the retail of general merchandise grew
faster than the national average for all industries for all three time
periods. During the first time period most of the state experienced
increasing employment except for a few central and mostly non-coastal
northern states. The second time interval saw all of Florida, except for
five northern non-coastal and one northern coastal county, experience
increasing employment in this industry. During the decade under study
only two counties reported declining employment in the retail of general
merchandise. These two counties were Gadsden and Madison.
Automobile Dealers and Service Stations. For the nation this sector
appeared as a slow growth industry during the 1960-1970 time period,
Central and panhandle counties registered declining employment in the
state with mostly all of the central coastal and southern coastal counties
experiencing increasing employment. Nationally for the second time interval
these sectors grew faster than the national average for all industries.
In the state, no county experienced declining employment and only one
county (Lafayette) registered zero growth. For the decade, the industry
appeared as fast growth for the nation and showed increasing employment
in every county statewide except Lafayette, Levy, Taylor and Walton.
Eating and Drinking Places. These sectors experienced growth that was
faster than the national average for all industries during all three time
periods. In the state, southern counties and in particular southern
coastal counties along with several western counties on the tip of the
panhandle experienced increasing employment in the 1965-1970 time period.
The second time period saw a large number of northern counties make a
turn around by increasing employment in these sectors. Finally, for the
decade a clear majority of Florida's counties displayed increasing employment
with the central panhandle areas being the one large exception. Also it
should be mentioned that during the second time interval Dade county regis-
tered a decline in employment which offset the first interval's increase for
an overall decade of declining employment in these industries.
Finance, Insurance and Real Estate. During all three time intervals
under study these sectors grew, at the national level, faster than the
national average for all industries. The first time interval saw almost
all counties in south and central Florida with increasing employment while
north Florida counties experienced a mixture of both increasing and decreasing
employment. During the 1970-1975 time interval only two counties in the
state had a declining employment growth in Finance, Insurance and Real
Estate. These two counties were Collier and Hernando. Over the decade
no county in the state of Florida reported declining growth in these
industries.
Lodging and Amusements. During the 1965-1970 time interval these sectors,
on the national level, grew slower than the national average for all indus-
tries. Coastal counties in southern and central Florida experienced
increasing employment while many panhandle and central Florida counties
either had zero or declining levels of employment. During the second time
interval from 1970 to 1975 these industries enjoyed a fast growth designation.
Most counties in the state registered increasing employment, however,
notable exceptions are Dade, Palm Beach, Sarasota and Brevard, For the
decade these sectors have a positive national growth component and only
three Florida counties had declining employment. Those three counties
are Dade, Levy and Taylor.
Personal Business Services. Nationally, for all three time periods,
this sector was growing faster than the national average for all industries.
During the first time period a north-south dividing line at mid-state
would separate the declining employment in the north from the increasing
employment in the south. A turnaround occurs in the second time period
with only Brevard, Gulf and Okaloosa registering declining employment in
this sector. Overall during the decade, only St. Johns and Okaloosa had
declining employment, while the remainder of the counties in the state
had increasing employment levels.
Professional Services, During all three time periods the professional
services sector was a fast growing industry nationwide. Though most of
Florida's counties had increasing employment in the 1965-1970 period,
many panhandle counties registered zero growth levels. The second time
interval saw growth occur in many of the previous zero-growth counties,
This resulted in the overall ten-year period increase in employment in
all but six of Florida's counties. The service industries have faired
well in Florida over the ten year study period evidently due to the large
population influx into the state.
Federal Government. On the national level, employment in Federal
Government was increasing slower than the national average for all industries
in both the first time period and for the decade as a whole. During
1965-1970 many southern coastal and central counties had increasing federal
employment while the panhandle and northern counties experienced many
zero and declining growth rates. Only during the second time period did
federal government employment increase faster than the national average
for the nation. Thirteen widely dispersed counties experienced declining
growth rates during this period and all other counties were positive.
Only nine counties had declining employment for the decade while the
remainder all experienced growth in this sector.
Shift-Share Analysis of
Florida Manufacturing
When isolating the manufacturing sectors (SI.C, 14-35) a different
overall result is achieved which displays an apparent weakness in Florida's
industrial structure. Tables 10-12 report shift-share components of
employment change in Florida manufacturing for 1965-1970, 1970-1975 and
1965-1975. During the 1970-1975 period, the national-growth component
for all industries was negative. So too, were the overall industrial mix
component totals for both 1965-1970 and 1970-1975, This indicates that
Florida has a greater than proportionate share of the nation's slower
growth manufacturing industries. The most negative (industrial mix component)
of these slow growth industries for the ten year period were, (14) Ordnance
Table 10--Shift-share Components of Manufacturing
Florida Manufacturing, U.S., 1965-1970
Employment Change in
National Industry Local
Industry Growth Mix Share
14 Ordnance & Acc. 863.89 -273.54 -1225.35
15 Food & Kindred Prod. 3285.00 -1863.65 2478.66
16 Tobacco Mfg. 407.97 -701.31 -80.66
17 Textile Mill Prod. 118.63 -43,79 1118.17
18 Apparel & Other Finished Prod. 1007.51 -681.93 10220.42
19 Lumber & Wood Prod. Exc. Furn. 973.07 -1503.45 1258.39
20 Furn. & Fixtures 583.92 -47.23 1134.31
21 Paper & Allied Prod. 1161.90 530.11 1284.99
22 Printing, Pub. & Allied Ind. 1372.05 946.99 4473.95
23 Chemicals & Allied Prod. 1524.50 1807.25 -2151.74
24 Petrol. Refin. & Related Ind. 52.71 0.38 371.91
25 Rubber & Misc. Plastic Prod. 214.76 422.18 2774.06
26 Leather & Leath. Prod. 149.79 -285.86 1308.07
27 Stone, Clay & Glass Prod. 1048.74 -685.38 2553.64
28 Primary Metal Ind. 215.31 -184.15 202.84
29 Fabricated Metal Ind. 1251.24 347.78 4531.98
30 Machinery, Exc. Elect. 774.70 673.44 7851.85
31 Elect. Mach., Equip. & Supplied 1529.73 1294.33 7849.94
32 Transportation Equip. 2199.47 -837.98 4106.50
33 Prof. & Scientific Inst. 261.93 501.21 597.86
34 Misc. Mfg. Inc. 277.32 -279.83 2076.51
35 Other Mfg. 0.0 0.0 0.0
TOTAL 19274.13 -864.44 52736.27
Source: A Shift-share analysis of the Florida economy based
on employment data from the Florida Employment and
Payroll Tabular, Research and Statistics Department
of the Florida Industrial Commission: 1965-1970.
Table 11--Shift-share Components of
Manufacturing, 1970-1975
Employment Change in Florida
National Industry Local
Industry Growth Mix Share
14 Ordnance & Acc. -532.30 -2742.13 -7152.58
15 Food & Kindred Prod. -2346.45 -712.01 5526.46
16 Tobacco Mfg. -247.59 204.62 -1238.02
17 Textile Mill Prod. -138.45 -39.49 964.93
18 Apparel & Other Finished Prod. -1196.96 -111.38 6272.34
19 Lumber & Wood Prod. Exc. Furn. -673.24 141.45 4244.79
20 Furn. & Fixtures -467.00 284.00 -1490.00
21 Paper & Allied Prod. -911.49 -780.96 -696.55
22 Printing, Pub. & Allied Ind. -1243.67 649.10 6657.57
23 Chemicals & Allied Prod. -1056.78 198.41 3835.37
24 Petrol. Refin. & Related Ind. -56.15 87.09 41.05
25 Rubber & Misc. Plastic Prod. -314.52 492.52 3028.00
26 Leather & Leather Prod. -157.74 -518.17 1228.91
27 Stone, Clay & Glass Prod. -834.46 214.15 1233.31
28 Primary Metal Ind. -152.69 -137.18 677.87
29 Fabricated Metal Ind. -1130.90 323.92 3528.99
30 Machinery, Exc. Elect. -981.18 2005.73 -422.56
31 Elect. Mach., Equip. & Supp. -1544.87 -871.79 9372.65
32 Transportation Equip. -1716.90 -1504.67 794.57
33 Prof. & Scientific Inst. -240.70 402.32 1667.38
34 Misc. Mfg. Ind. -287.15 29.66 187.49
35 Other Mfg. 0.0 0.0 0.0
TOTAL -16231.21 -2384.79 38241.96
Source: A Shift-share analysis of the Florida economy based
on employment data from the Florida Employment and
Payroll Tabular, Research and Statistics Department
of the Florida Industrial Commission: 1970-1975.
Table 12--Shift-share Components of Employment Change in Florida
Manufacturing, 1965-1975
National Industry Local
Industry Growth Mix Share
14 Ordnance & Acc. 255.08 -3323.95 -7993.13
15 Food & Kindred Prod. 969.94 ,-2442.14 7840.19
16 Tobacco Mfg. 120.45 -457.49 -1317.97
17 Textile Mill Prod. 35.03 -64.76 2009.73
18 Apparel & Other Finished Prod. 297.48 -709.95 15922.46
19 Lumber & Wood Prod. Exc. Furn. 287.31 -1298.75 5452.43
20 Furn. & Fixtures 172.41 203.97 -378.38
21 Paper & Allied Prod. 343.07 -221.71 466.64
22 Printing, Pub. & Allied Ind. 405.12 1428.54 11022.34
23 Chemicals & Allied Prod. 450.13 1934.02 1772.85
24 Petrol. Refin. & Related Ind. 15.56 58.00 423.43
25 Rubber & Misc. Plastic Prod. 63.41 671.38 5882.20
26 Leather & Leath. Prod. 44.23 -570.08 2250.85
27 Stone, Clay & Glass Prod. 309.66 -469.70 3690.05
28 Primary Metal Ind. 63.57 -302.63 861.05
29 Fabricated Metal Ind. 369.45 587.68 7895.88
30 Machinery, Exc. Elect. 228.74 1825.41 7827.85
31 Elect. Mach., Equip. & Supp. 451.67 582.60 16595.72
32 Transportation Equip. 649.43 -2116.15 4507.72
33 Prof. & Scientific Inst. 77.34 826.93 2285.73
34 Misc. Mfg. Inc. 81.88 -246.83 2168.95
35 Other Mfg. 0.0 0.0 0.0
TOTAL 5690.96 -4105.57 89186.44
Source: A Shift-share analysis of the Florida economy based
on employment data from the Florida Employment and
Payroll Tabular, Research and Statistics Department
of the Florida Industrial Commission: 1965-1975.
& Accessories, (15) Food & Kindred Production, (19) Lumber & Wood Production,
except Furniture, and (32) Transportation Equipment. Industries which
displayed strong positive industrial mix as well as competitive share
components for the ten year period were, (22) Printing & Allied Industries,
(23) Chemicals and Allied Production, (25) Rubber and Miscellaneous
Plastic Production, (29) Fabricated Metal Industry, (30) Machinery,
except Electrical and, (31) Electrical Machinery, Equipment and Supplies.
Shift-Share Analysis of Manufacturing
Industry in Florida Counties
The insight provided by incorporating national data into the shift-
share model while isolating the manufacturing sectors of Florida's economy,
sheds new light on manufacturing trends in Florida counties during the
ten-year study period. This section of the analysis examines the growth
of employment in S.I.C. 14-35 in Florida counties by comparing the growth
of individual counties to national averages.
First, the national growth component in Table 15 reveals results
which have not occurred in the other three sections of this analysis.
For.the ten-year period, and the 1965-1970 time span, the national growth
component is positive. However, during 1970-1975 the first component of
the shift-share analysis is negative throughout. The reason for this
phenomenon is the economic recession which caused a reduction in national
manufacturing employment. By comparing the negative national component
with the last component of the analysis, the net shift, an insight may
be realized as to how individual counties and Florida as a whole faired,
relative to the nation in terms of manufacturing employment.
During the 1970-1975 time period, twenty-six coastal counties and
twenty non-coastal counties maintained a positive net shift component while
Table 13--Shift-Share Components of Manufacturing Employment Change in
Florida Counties, 1965-1970.
SNational -Industry Compettitve Net
Coastal Counties Growth Mix Share Shift
Bay 196 -49 139 90
Brevard 810 36 3144 3108
Broward 875 264 8168 8432
Charlotte 18 -25 -60 -85
Citrus 10 -11 35 24
Clay 50 -62 235 173
Collier 22 -17 54 37
Dade 42 -562 15893 15331
Desoto 25 -34 36 2
Dixie 32 -48 37 -11
Duval 1755 -288 417 129
Escambia 996 665 -1709 -1044
Flagler 18 -27 -75 -102
Franklin 14 -11 48 37
Gulf 89 -96 126 30
Hernando 13 -15 20 5
Hillsborough 1944 -501 5218 4717
Indian River 113 115 83 -32
Jefferson 11 -16 64 48
Lee 99 -48 373 25
Levy 57 -86 186 100
Manatee 217 -66 1581 1515
Martin 36 -13 792 779
Monroe 34 -18 -2 -20
Nassau 159 43 74 117
Okaloosa 1267 -827 -687 -1514
Palm Beach 1064 -39 5743 5704
Pasco 79 --44 589 553
Pinellas 1266 433 329:3 3731
Putnami 227 -285 583 298
St. Johns 85 =30 -185 -215
St. Lucte 69 -16 227 211
Santa Rosa 108 -148 336 188
Sarasota 203 56 551 607
Taylor 122 n175 410 235
Volusia 452 174 -1093 -919
Wakulla 24 -34 -72 -106
Walton 25 -34 188 154
Table 13 (Continued)
Non-Coastal National Industry Competitive Net
Counties Growth Mix Share Shift
Alachua 209 -71 795 724
Baker 13 -19 -24 -43
Bradford 26 -36 138 102
Calhoun 7 -10 143 133
Columbia 114 -87 66 -21
Gadsden 111 -124 50 -74
Gilchrist 0 0 0 0
Glades 0 0 0 0
Hamilton 10 -15 91 76
Hardee 20 -20 -17 -37
Hendry 39 -54 -87 -141
Highlands 24 -20 246 226
Holmes 7 -10 119 -109
Jackson 94 -117 142 25
Lafayette 3 -5 -13 -18
Lake 129 -90 380 290
Leon 133 -104 189 85
Liberty 21 -29 29 0
Madison 19 -27 476 449
Marion 168 -119 688 569
Okeechobee 11 -15 -19 -34
Orange 1267 -827 -688 1515
Osceola 35 -34 353 319
Polk 961 16 1666 1682
Seminole 114 -18 2112 2094
Sumter 9 -13 381 368
Suwannee 27 -25 29 4
Union 14 -19 26 5
Washington 16 -24 0 -24
Source: A Shift-share analysis of the Florida economy based on
employment data from the Florida Employment and Payroll
Tabular, Research and Statistics Department of the
Florida Industrial Commission: 1965-1970.
Table 14--Shift-Share Components of Manufacturing Employment Change in
Florida Counties, 1970-1975.
Coastal Counties National Industry Competitive Net
Coastal Counties Growth Mix Share Shift
Bay -143 -53 964 911
Brevard -733 -1372 -989 -2361
Broward -1047 364 5573 5209
Charlotte -8 1 6 7
Citrus -9 -1 242 241
Clay -44 -16 -306 -322
Collier -17 3 236 239
Dade -3713 30 12281 12311
Desoto -17 -7 -63 -70
Dixie -22 0 -1 -1
Duval -1243 -83 1975 1887
Escambia -685 28 -661 633
Flagler -8 1 -10 -9
Franklin -12 -4 -79 -83
Gulf -65 -24 -38 -62
Hernando -9 -2 328 326
Hillsborough -1611 151 -288 -137
Indian River -70 -21 1140 1119
Jefferson -10 -2 24 22
Lee -86 6 2022 2028
Levy -45 8 -523 -515
Manatee -231 -42 410 368
Martin -65 -34 529 497
Monroe -23 -7 314 307
Nassau -118 -90 335 245
Okaloosa -82 -38 212 178
Palm Beach -1041 301 -972 -671
Pasco -83 -16 1192 1176
Pinellas -1083 -74 2917 2843
Putnam -175 -124 -1 -125
St. Johns -49 -27 55 28
St. Lucie -59 -4 366 362
Santa Rosa -85 -37 -170 207
Sarasota -174 31 365 396
Taylor -98 -28 -71 -99
Volusia -271 -26 871 845
Wakulla -12 -4 217 213
Walton -25 20 15 35
Table 14--(Continued)
Non-Coastal National Industry Competitive Net
Counties Growth Mix Share Shift
Alachua -184 -38 486 448
Baker -7 0 2 2
Bradford -23 -9 -203 -212
Calhoun -12 2 278 280
Columbia -80 -50 21 29
Gadsden -75 14 -385 -371
Gilchrist 0 0 36 36
Glades 0 0 328 329
Hamilton -11 -2 1338 1336
Hardee -12 -2 66 64
Hendry -20 -9 365 356
Highlands -28 -11 297 286
Holmes -11 -4 299 295
Jackson -67 -14 412 398
Lafayette -2 -1 1 0
Lake -106 -28 482 454
Leon -98 9 -212 -203
Liberty -15 -1 -114 -115
Madison -37 -4 165 161
Marion -148 -30 663 633
Okeechobee -6 -2 -8 -10
Orange -816 -59 3449 3390
Osceola -41 -4 4 0
Polk -763 20 2812 2832
Seminole -187 -43 1210 1167
Sumter -25 -11 -228 -239
Suwannee -19 -2 594 592
Union -10 -3 -7 -10
Washington -10 0 11 11
Source: A Shift-share analysis of the Florida economy based on
employment data from the Florida Employment and Payroll
Tabular, Research and Statistics Department of Florida
Industrial Commission: 1970-1975.
Table 15--Shift-Share Components of Manufacturing Employment Change in
Florida Counties, 1965-1975.
Non-Coastal National Industry Competitive Net
Counties Growth Mix Share Shift
Alachua 62 -79 1215 1136
Baker 4 -17 -21 -38
Bradford 7 -39 -75 -114
Calhoun 2 -12 419 407
Columbia 34 -125 76 -49
Gadsden 33 -99 -343 -342
Gilchrist 0 0 36 36
Glades 0 0 329 329
Hamilton 3 -14 1417 1403
Hardee 6 -21 51. 30
Hendry 11 -62 284 202
Highlands 7 -23 523 500
Holmes 2 -11 410 399
Jackson 28 -127 550 423
Lafayette 1 -6 -10 -16
Lake 38 -102 832 730
Leon 39 -90 -31 -121
Liberty 6 -33 -81 -114
Madison 6 -31 617 586
Marion 50 -129 1303 1174
Okeechobee 3 -18 25 7
Orange 374 -905 2857 1952
Osceola 10 -32 335 303
Polk 284 74 4354 4280
Seminole 34 -23 3179 3148
Sumter 3 -15 125 110
Suwannee 8 -24 620 596
Union 4 -23 19 -4
Washington 5 -22 10 -12
Source: A Shift-share analysis of the Florida economy based on
employment data from the Florida Employment and Payroll
Tabular, Research and Statistics Department of the Florida
Industrial Commission: 1965-1975.
Table 15--(Continued)
National Industry Competitive Net
Coastal Counties Growth Mix Share Shift
Bay 58 -98 1094 996
Brevard 239 -1079 1735 656
Broward 258 513 13429 13939
Charlotte 5 -28 -46 -74
Citrus 3 -12 276 264
Clay 15 -69 -88 -157
Collier 6 -16 290 274
Dade 1228 -525 27385 26860
Desoto 7 -39 -30 -69
Dixie 9 -46 34 -12
Duval 518 -419 2433 2014
Escambia 294 612 -2236 -1624
Flagler 5 -27 -78 -105
Franklin 4 -14 -34 -48
Gulf 26 -112 79 -33
Hernando 4 -14 346 332
Hillsborough 574 -340 4680 4340
Indian River 33 -125 1056 931
Jefferson 3 -16 84 68
Lee 29 -50 2387 2337
Levy 17 -80 -340 -420
Manatee 69 -90 1896 1806
Martin 50 -129 1302 1173
Monroe 10 -20 309 289
Nassau 47 -48 404 456
Okaloosa 31 -78 401 323
Palm Beach 314 -70 4812 4442
Pasco 23 -52 1746 1694
Pinellas 374 302 6082 6384
Putnam 67 -311 468 157
St. Johns 25 -62 -114 -176
St. Lucie 20 -21 583 562
Santa Rosa 32 -172 142 -30
Sarasota 60 50 922 972
Taylor 36 -180 304 124
Volusia 133 153 -179 -26
Wakulla 7 -38 151 113
Walton 7 -39 221 182
only twelve coastal counties and seven non-coastal counties fell into
the negative net shift categories (Tables 13 through 15). Seven of the
twelve coastal counties and five of the seven non-coastal counties re-
tained their negative net shifts for the entire 1965-1975 time period.
Overall, there were still twelve coastal counties and nine non-coastal
counties with negative net shift components. Only two southern counties
experienced a negative net shift for the decade (Charlotte and Desoto).
A clear majority of the counties experiencing a negative net shift were
in the "panhandle" of Florida. Individual industries which showed de-
clines in these counties were, (16) Tobacco Manufacturing, (19) lumber
and Wood Production, except Furniture, (20) Furniture and Fixtures,
(21) Paper and Allied Production, (22) Printing, Publishing and Allied
Industries, (23) Chemicals and Allied Products and, (35) Other Manu-
facturing.
Five coastal counties (Broward, Escambia, Pinellas, Sarasota and
Volusia) and only one non-coastal county (Polk) had positive industrial
mix components for the decade. These results indicate that manufacturing
industries in Florida counties are, for the most part, slow growth industries
relative to the nation for all industries.
For the 1965-1975 time period, there are nine coastal counties and
six non-coastal counties with negative competitive shares. During the
second time period, five additional coastal counties and one non-coastal
county had negative competitive shares. Eleven coastal counties and six
non-coastal counties had their competitive share sign change from positive
to negative while six coastal and five non-coastal counties gained in
comparative advantage by having their competitive share components change
in sign from negative to positive.
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
An overall objective of this paper was to examine economic change
which occurred in Florida industry during the 1965-1975 time period. To
accomplish this objective, a shift-share model was employed. The shift-
share analysis was applied to 80 industries in 67 counties for three
different time periods with a national base. Then trends for eighteen
major sectors were summarized. Furthermore, the manufacturing industries
(S.I.C. 14-35) were isolated to avoid the influence of the dominant
service and trade industries on the shift-share analysis. Employment
data that were recovered from the Florida Employment Payroll Tabular
Analysis were used to measure economic change.
Results from the models indicate that the largest and fastest
growing counties are located along Florida's coast with a few exceptions
in central Florida. Dominant in Florida industries are the service and
trade sectors, and a few light-manufacturing sectors. Relative to the
nation, the service and trade industries are both fast growth industries
and are experiencing a gain in Florida as indicated by the industrial-mix
and competitive-share components. The manufacturing industries generally
registered negative industrial-mix components with the exception of,
(25) Rubber and Miscellaneous Plastic Products, (30) Machinery, except
Electrical and, (33) Professional and Scientific Instruments.
By isolating the manufacturing industries (S.I,C. 14-35), the
influence of the very strong service and trade sector was eliminated.
This procedure allowed for comparison between individual Florida counties
and their manufacturing industries relative to U.S. manufacturing industry
growth only. The overall results indicate the Florida counties have
experienced growth in a greater than proportionate average of the nation's
slow growth industries. The slow growth industries appear to be, (14)
Ordnance and Accessories, (15) Food and Kindred Products, (19) Lumber
and Wood Products, except Furniture and, (32) Transportation Equipment.
Meanwhile, manufacturing industries which favored Florida with both a
positive industrial-mix (i.e., fast growth) and a positive competitive-
share (i.e., comparative advantage) are, (22) Printing, Publishing and
Allied Industries, (23) Chemicals and Allied Products, (25) Rubber and
Miscellaneous Plastic Products, (29) Fabricated Metal Industries, (30)
Machinery, except Electrical, (31) Electrical Machinery, Equipment and
Supplies and, (33) Professional and Scientific Instruments.
The state of Florida, over the ten year study period, experienced
rapid growth in employment with much of this growth occurring in the
service and trade sectors. Strong growth also occurred in the manufac-
turing industries, though it appears that much of this growth is in
industries which are growing slower than the national average,
APPENDIX A
Following Gordon and Darling, shift-share analysis for industry
i in region j with employment as the unit of measure can be stated
mathematically as follows:
AEj =(E E b) = R + M + L
ij ij ij
00 00 E
S Eb 1-E
00
VEt Eb Et Eb
S-io oo oo b
M L = E Eb E0
4t b (t Eb
Lij io i 0 b
L L EEE
E = Employment
R = Reference area effect
M = Industrial mix effect
L = Local share effect
Eo = Total employment in the reference area during the terminal
period
E = Total employment in the reference area during the base period
0
Et. = Employment in industry 1 in area j during the terminal period
ij
E = Employment in industry i in area j during the base period
Et : Employment in industry i in the reference area during the
S terminal period
b
Eio Employment in industry i in the reference area during the
base period
The shift-share calculations are performed separately for each
industry and summed over all industries to yield the shift-share components
for the study area. An examination of these formulas reveals the way
in which shift-share compares the two areas. The calculationof R is,
in effect, an application of the overall reference area growth rate to
the employment in each of the study area industries at the beginning of
the time period. The other two factors, M and L, then explain resulting
differences between R and the employment which actually exists in that
industry at the end of the time period.
In explaining divergences between an industry in the study area
and reference area growth rates, the second factor, M, compares the
reference area growth rate of the industry in question to the overall
reference area growth rate. In this manner the industry is designated
as either a fast or slow growing industry depending on the sign of M.
This differential industry growth rate, when multiplied by base year
employment in the regional industry, measures the extent to which the
local industry is expected to vary from the national average due to
growth factors specific to the industry.
The final shift-share component, L, uses both study area and
reference area data. The reference area growth rate for each industry
is subtracted from the regional growth rate of the same industry. The
result, when multiplied by base year employment in the regional industry,
measures the shift of activity in the industry in question, and the sign
on L indicates the directions of the shift. A positive sign indicates
that the industry in question is growing faster in the study area than
in the reference area.
REFERENCES
[1] Ashby, L.D. "The Shift and Share Analysis: A Reply," Southern
Economic Journal, Volume 34, January 1968, pp. 423-425.
[2] Brown, H.J.
Growth: An
April 1969,
"Shift and Share Projections of Regional Economic
Empirical Test," Journal of Regional Science, Volume 9,
pp. 1-18.
[3] Florida Coastal Zone Management Workshop Draft, November 4, 1977,
p. 14.
[4] Gordon, J. and D. Darling, "Measuring Economic Growth in Rural
Communities: The Shift-Share Approach," Southern Journal of
Agricultural Economics, December 1976, pp. 73-78.
[5] Houston, D.B. "The Shift and Share Analysis of Regional Growth-
A Critique," Southern Economic Journal, Volume 33, April 1967,
p. 15.
[6] Perloff, H.S., E.S, Dunn, EE, Lampard and R,F, Muth. Regions,
Resources, and Economic Growth. The John Hopkins Press:' Bal"mqre?
Maryland, 1960.
[7] Thombson, R. and F. Terhune, Eds. Florida Statistical Abstracts,
1976, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, College of Business
Administration, University of Florida,
|
