NOVEMBER 1988
l s. 11f
MARKET POTENTIAL FOR SELECTED
VEGETABLES GROWN ON RECLAIMED
PHOSPHATIC CLAY
' JJ
Food and Resource Economics Department
Agricultural Experiment Station
Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences
University of Florida, Gainesville 32611
Mohammad Rahmani
Timothy G. Taylor
David Mulkey
ECONOMICS REPORT 117
ABSTRACT
The economic feasibility of producing vegetables on reclaimed
phosphatic clay in Polk County, Florida is examined. Five vegetable crops,
cabbage, cucumbers, sweet corn, peppers, and squash are included in the
analyses. The results indicated that cabbage, white sweet corn, cucumbers,
and crookneck squash may be economically viable for production on reclaimed
phosphatic clay in Polk County.
Keywords: phosphate mining, reclamation, vegetables, market windows,
economic feasibility.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This research was completed with funding from the Florida Institute of
Phosphate Research as a part of the Polk County/IFAS Mined Lands
Agricultural Research/Demonstration Project.
The Authors acknowledge the helpful comments of Richard Beilock, Max
Langham, George Hochmuth, and Jim Stricker. Any inaccuracies remain the
responsibility of the authors.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT . .
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF TABLES .
LIST OF FIGURES
INTRODUCTION
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS .
Cabbage .
Sweet Corn
Cucumbers
Peppers
Squash
CONCLUSION .
REFERENCES .
LIST OF TABLES
Tables
1. Yearly cost data for selected vegetables . . .
2. Yearly average prices for selected vegetables . .
Pag
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Pare
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LIST OF FIGURES
Page
Average weekly prices for cabbage,
1977-78 to 1984-85 . .
2. Average weekly net returns for cabbage,
1977-78 to 1984-85 . . . . .
3. Average weekly prices for white sweet corn,
1977-78 to 1984-85 . . . . .
4. Average weekly net returns for white sweet corn,
1977-78 to 1984-85 . . . . .
5. Average weekly prices for yellow sweet corn,
1977-78 to 1984-85 . . . . .
6. Average weekly net returns for yellow sweet corn,
1977-78 to 1984-85 . . . . .
7. Average weekly prices for cucumbers,
1977-78 to 1984-85 . . . . .
8. Average weekly net returns for cucumbers,
1977-78 to 1984-85 . . . . .
9. Average weekly prices for peppers,
1977-78 to 1984-85 . . . . .
10. Average weekly net returns for peppers,
1977-78 to 1984-85 . . . . .
11. Average weekly prices for straight-neck squash,
1977-78 to 1984-85 . . . . .
12. Average weekly net returns for straight-neck squash,
1977-78 to 1984-85 . . . . .
13. Average weekly prices for crookneck squash,
1977-78 to 1984-85 . . . . .
14. Average weekly net returns for crookneck squash,
1977-78 to 1984-85 . . . . .
Figure
1.
9
. 12
. 12
. 13
. 13
. 15
. 15
. 17
. 17
. 19
. 19
. 20
. 20
MARKET POTENTIAL FOR SELECTED VEGETABLES
GROWN ON RECLAIMED PHOSPHATIC CLAY
INTRODUCTION
The state of Florida is the largest domestic producer of phosphate,
annually accounting for an average of about 75 percent of total U.S.
production (McHardy, 1983). Within Florida, Polk County is the largest
phosphate production area, consisting of about 140,000 acres of mined lands
(through 1985). Phosphate mining activity also occurs in Hillsborough,
Manatee, Hardee, and Hamilton counties (Wood, 1986).
At the present rate of mining, the phosphate reserves in Polk county
will be largely depleted in about 15 years. During this period Polk county
will experience a loss of approximately 10,000 jobs and an estimated $2.5
million in ad valorem tax revenues (Stricker, 1987).
When mining activity ceases Polk county will be left with 200,000
acres of mined land, 60% of which will be in the form of clay settling
areas. When used for phosphate mining this land has an assessed value of
about $5000 per acre. However, the value of this land subsequent to mining
activity is estimated to be only $100 per acre. It is clear that
alternative uses for this land are necessary if the negative tax and
employment effects resulting from the termination of phosphate mining in
Polk county are to be offset (Wood, 1986).
1
One potential use of phosphatic clay is the production of fresh winter
vegetables. Polk county is located within one of the principal winter
vegetable producing areas of Florida, and possesses the requisite climatic
characteristics to produce high-valued vegetable crops. Greenhouse and
laboratory studies have indicated that sand-clay mixes possess several
agronomic properties such as high water-holding capacity, high nutrient
reserves and pH levels favorable to plant growth (Bromwell and Carrier
Inc., 1985).
The existence of favorable climate and laboratory results that
indicate the physical potential to grow a crop are not, however, sufficient
to conclude that vegetable production on phosphatic clay will be an
economically viable activity when considered on a commercial scale. The
purpose of this report is to provide a preliminary look at the economic
potential of producing a number of vegetable crops on phosphatic clay in
Polk county. The specific crops included in these analyses are cabbage,
sweet corn, cucumbers, peppers, and squash.
METHODOLOGY
The general methodology used in this study falls into the broadly
defined area of "market window" analysis. This methodology, involves
analyzing markets in order to identify windows of opportunity or market
niches wherein potential producers can expect to receive prices in excess
of the cost of production and make a profit ( Colette and Wall, 1978).
While this notion on the surface borders on the obvious, it must be
remembered that the search for market windows generally involves crops not
previously grown at a particular time or location. Thus, while market
window analysis is conceptually straightforward, the general lack of
historical data often makes the actual implementation of the methodology
difficult.
The literature on market window analysis generally indicates that
although there are some differences in the methodology used, the basic
techniques are similar (Mizelle, 1983; Mook, 1985; O'Rourke, 1985; Zwingli
et al., 1987; and Criner et al., 1986). Weekly wholesale prices obtained
over a period of years are summarized and compared to estimated costs of
production. If, during certain periods of time (users of the market window
technique generally consider periods of at least two months sufficient to
justify a reasonable production scale, O'Rourke, 1984), average weekly
prices exceed the estimated cost of production, a market window is said to
exist. Market window analyses have been performed using a variety of
techniques from simple visual analyses to fairly sophisticated programming
models.
Evaluation of the economic feasibility of producing vegetables on
phosphatic clay is made difficult because no cost of production estimates
representative of commercial vegetable production on phosphatic clay are
available. Hence, market window analysis as described above cannot be
performed. However, given the existence of well defined markets for Florida
winter vegetables during the period when Polk county would likely be in
production, some basic inferences concerning the economic potential of
producing crops in this area may be obtained.
If the introduction of commercial vegetable production on phosphatic
clay is to be economically feasible, then at least one of two conditions
must hold. First, there must be sufficient demand in existing markets to
absorb additional produce while still enabling producers to cover their
costs of production. Secondly, producers on phosphatic clay must be cost
competitive with producers of a given crop elsewhere in Florida.
The notion that room for additional supplies exists in a given market
may be translated into the existence of excess revenues over cost. That is,
if there exist periods of time during the season where revenues on average
exceed the cost of production including opportunity costs for crops already
being produced, it may be possible for additional producers to enter the
market and capture at least some of the available profit.
Even if such periods of excess revenues over cost do not exist, it may
still be possible to successfully produce vegetable crops on phosphatic
clay. However, producers on phosphatic clay would have to be the lowest-
cost producers. If additional supplies enter a market where no excess
profits are being made, prices will fall below levels sufficient for
marginal producers to cover cost, and some producers will be forced from
the market. Low-cost producers will be more likely to survive over time.
As noted earlier, sufficient data do not exist to identify any cost
advantage or disadvantage for vegetable producers on phosphatic clay
relative to other producers in Florida. However, it is possible to make
some inferences as to the existence of time periods during the production
season when revenues in general exceed cost of production for crops
currently being produced.
To accomplish the revenue-cost comparison in the present analysis,
historical cost of production data obtained from Brooke (1979, 1980), Bean
(1981), Taylor (1982, 1984, 1986) Taylor and Wilkowske (1983, 1984) and
Taylor and Locascio (1985) are used in conjunction with weekly FOB price
data obtained from the Federal-State Market News Service (various issues)
to obtain weekly net return estimates over the 1977-78 to 1984-85 period.
Since vegetable markets are highly volatile in any one season, the net
returns calculated for each season are deflated by the GNP deflator and
averaged over the 8 seasons considered. This results in a long run view of
the existence of profits for certain periods of time during the season that
could be appropriated by new market entrants (i.e. producers on phosphatic
clay). The reason for taking a long run view is that in any one season,
producers may well lose money. However, subsequent "good" years may result
in profits more than sufficient to offset these losses. Viewing the average
weekly net return over a number of seasons in real terms (deflated average
weekly net returns) allows identification of intraseasonal periods wherein
on average positive net returns exist.
Along with weekly net returns historical cost of production data and
average weekly prices are also provided for each crop analyzed in this
report. These data serve as benchmarks for potential producers on
phosphatic clay to consider. Average weekly prices serve as an upper bound
on the cost of production that would allow potential entrants to produce at
a profit. That is, even if there exists periods of time when there are
profits on average being realized, production (and marketing) costs must
still be below FOB price. Historical cost of production data also provide a
benchmark regarding the costs that must be realized by individuals
producing on phosphatic clay.
Before proceeding to the analyses of individual crops it is necessary
to point out a number of caveats. First, it is important to realize that
production costs are recorded on an annual basis. Hence, the weekly net
return calculations implicitly assume that production costs are constant
throughout the entire season. The extent to which this is a valid
assumption is unknown. However, there is a limited amount of information
that suggests that per unit cost of production does not vary greatly during
the various production seasons (e.g. fall, winter, spring).
It should also be noted that the extent to which the cost data used in
this study reflect the cost of production likely to be realized by
commercial farming activities on phosphatic clay is unknown. Although some
experimental plots have been grown, no reliable cost of production
estimates have been constructed.
The analyses also ignore the many dimensions of marketing vegetables
that are not manifested in monetary values. Thus, it is implicitly assumed
that new producers will encounter no difficulties in producing vegetables
in sufficient quantity and quality to enter into the mainstream marketing
channels. The importance of these factors cannot be underrated. Reputation
and quality are very significant factors in successfully marketing fresh
produce.
Finally, it should be noted that the analysis does not attempt to
incorporate any information regarding the likely effects that the presence
of additional supplies will have on market price. To be sure, any increase
in supply will result in some downward pressure on FOB price. However,
sufficient data do not exist to make even a rough estimate of the relavent
supply price flexibilities.
The magnitude of such a decrease is dependent on the amount and timing
of the increase in supply. Since no information on likely supply increases
resulting from phosphatic clay vegetable production is available, we have
simply assumed that the resulting price responses will be minor.
RESULTS
Analyses of average weekly prices for cabbage, sweet corn, cucumbers,
peppers, and squash for the 1977-78 to 1984-85 period indicate that market
windows for these crops may exist. Cabbage has a continuous market window
greater than two months because it can tolerate frost. Market windows for
the other crops in this study are less than two months for either fall or
spring harvesting periods.
There has been a steady increase in the cost of production of these
crops during the eight year period (1977-78 to 1984-85, Table 1). The
yearly average prices for these vegetables during the same period (table 2)
reflect smaller increase over time and more variability.
The following sections present a discussion of the potential market
windows for each crop. The average, maximum, and minimum weekly prices as
well as the average, maximum, and minimum weekly returns for the 1977-78 to
1984-85 period are presented. It should be noted that the term "production
season" in the following applies to the period of the year that a
particular crop may normally be produced on phosphatic clay in Florida.
Cabbage
Figure 1 illustrates the average weekly prices for cabbage for the
1977-78 to 1984-85 period. The market window for cabbage extends for about
four months from January through April. Although the production season for
cabbage may start in December, as it can be seen from Figure 1 average
7
Table 1. Yearly cost
Cabbage
Year (50 Ibs.)
data for selected vegetables, $/unit.a
Sweet Corn Cucumbers Peppers
(42 lbs.) (55 Ibs.) (25 lbs.)
77-78 3.15 4.16 5.69
78-79 3.12 4.76 5.42
79-80 4.04 5.20 7.07
80-81 3.58 5.23 7.14
81-82 4.42 6.27 7.16
82-83 4.59 6.86 7.17
83-84 6.74 6.95 7.13
84-85 4.94 6.60 8.16
aFor vegetables produced in more than one area,
cost for all areas is reported here.
5.00
5.01
5.94
7.92
8.75
8.77
9.14
10.10
the average
Table 2. Yearly average prices for selected vegetables, $/unit.
Cabbage
Year (50 Ibs.)
77-78
78-79
79-80
80-81
81-82
82-83
83-84
84-85
4.83
5.96
3.18
3.90
6.46
3.64
11.08
6.48
Sweet Corn
White Yellow
(42 Ibs.)
4.94
5.23
6.29
7.34
6.97
7.68
8.68
4.14
4.49
4.76
5.72
6.59
7.03
7.61
6.18
Cucumbers
Peppers
(55 Ibs.) (25 Ibs.)
8.34
8.54
10.36
11.05
11.67
13.21
10.91
10.60
7.47
6.98
9.27
14.38
9.22
13.00
13.52
7.94
Squash
Str.Neck Crookneck
(42 lbs.)
5.77
6.50
6.70
9.32
7.19
9.04
8.29
7.84
5.44
6.18
6.44
8.85
6.71
8.58
7.73
7.17
Squash
(42 Ibs.)
6.74
6.71
7.30
7.66
8.00
7.92
9.89
8.78
--
$24.00
$22.00
$20.00
$18.00
$16.00
$14.00
$12.00
$10.00
$8.00
$ 00
$1 4,00
$12.00
$10.00
$8.00
$61,00
$4.00
$2.00
$0.00
($2.00)
($4.00)
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 2 25 27 29 31 33 35
PRODUCTION WEEK (1-First week of Oct.)
D AVERAGE + MAXIMUM 0 MINIMUM
FIGURE 2: AVERAGE WEEKLY NET RETURNS FOR CABBAGE,
1977-78 TO 1984-85
9
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
PRODUCTION WEEK (1-First week of Oct.)
D AVERAGE + MA>XI:UM o MINIMUM
FIGURE 1: AVERAGE WEEKLY PRICES FOR CABBAGE,
1977-78 TO 1984-85
weekly price for cabbage during December are generally low. The average
weekly prices for cabbage start to increase in January and peak in mid- or
late March, then prices begin to decline. While the minimum prices for
1977-78 to 1984-85 have shown very little weekly variation, the maximum
prices have increased from $5.00 in mid December to $22.00 in mid March.
Therefore, considering the cost of production in the existing production
areas in Florida, it appears that there is no market for this vegetable in
December.
Since there is no cost data for cabbage produced on phosphatic clay,
cost data for cabbage from Hastings area are used to calculate the average
weekly net returns. A positive average weekly net return can be identified
only after December when the price increases to over $10 per 50 lb. (Figure
2). With both average weekly net returns and average weekly deflated net
returns being positive, cabbage appears to have a market window for about
16 weeks. This means that under normal circumstances, cabbage production
from phosphatic clay can be expected to have a market potential from
January through April.
The mean of average weekly prices for the identified production season
of $6.40 indicates the upper limit for cost levels that will allow
profitable production of cabbage. Only growers that can produce below $6.40
per 50 lb. crate have an expectation of profitably marketing their product,
assuming that the increases supply on the phosphatic clay does not affect
the price. Average weekly net returns in real terms (deflated) indicate
similar trends.
. 10
Sweet Corn
Analyses were done separately for yellow corn and white corn types.
Figures 3 and 5 show the average weekly prices for white and yellow corn
over the 1977-78 to 1984-85 period. Sweet corn prices are generally high
during the months of January, February, and March, but due to the
possibility of frost, sweet corn production cannot be undertaken. Sweet
corn has two production seasons in the areas with weather conditions
similar to Polk County; fall and spring. Fall plantings can be harvested
during December and January until frost. The spring planting can be
harvested from early April until mid-May and sometimes even into late May.
An average of the production costs for three different areas; Central
Florida, Everglades, and Lower East Coast was used to calculate average
weekly net returns. As Figures 4 and 6 show, there are positive average
weekly net returns during both the fall and spring production season. The
positive average net returns for white corn extend over a longer period of
time than for yellow corn. If the weather conditions allow an early
planting so that the harvesting can begin in early or mid-March, a market
window can be identified for white corn. Using the aforementioned cost data
for calculating average weekly net returns, a market window cannot be
identified for yellow corn. White corn market potentials exist only for
spring planting. For the fall planting, the outlook is not as promising. An
early fall planting that could be harvested from mid-October through
November would likely return relatively low income. Negative average weekly
net returns have been identified for that period of time (Figures 4 and 6).
Comparing average weekly net returns for the two sweet corn types,
some differences are evident. For the yellow corn to have a market window,
$14.00
$13.00
$12.00
$11.oo
$1o.00
$9.00
Seo
$600
$4.00
$0 -00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37
PRODUCTION WEEK (1.First week of Oct.)
0 AVERAGE + MAXIMUM o MINIMUM
FIGURE 3: AVERAGE WEEKLY PRICES FOR WHITE SWEET CORN,
1977-78 TO 1984-85
$8 00
$e oo
S.C.oo
$S7 00
- oo
$4 00
$3 00
$200
($1.00)
(C2.00)
($3,uO)
(34.00)
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
PRODUCTION WEEK (1=-Firt week of Oct.)
0 AVERAGE + MAXIMUM o MINIMUM
FIGURE 4: AVERAGE WEEKLY NET RETURNS FOR WHITE
1977-78 TO 1984-85
12
33 35 37
SWEET CORN,
$14.00
$13.00
$12.00
$11.00
$10.00
67.00
$?.oo
$4.00
$2.00
$7.00
$6 .00
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
$1.00
so.oo
$0.00
($ .00)
($2.00)
($>,00)
($4.00)
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37
PRODUCTION WEEK (1-First week of Oct.)
0 AVERAGE + MAXIMUM 0 MINIMUM
FIGURE 6: AVERAGE WEEKLY NET RETURNS FOR YELLOW SWEET CORN,
1977-78 TO 1984-85
1 C5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37
PRODUCTION WEEK (1-First week of Oct.)
0 AVERAGE + MAXIMUM o MINIMUM
FIGURE 5: AVERAGE WEEKLY PRICES FOR YELLOW SWEET CORN,
1977-78 TO 1984-85
it would have to be produced at a cost below that of any of the existing
production areas in Florida. White corn would have to be produced below
$6.15 per crate and yellow corn below $5.23 per crate to have an
expectation of profitable marketing.
Cucumbers
The production season for cucumbers is the same as that for corn with
fall harvesting from early December until early January or until frost and
spring harvesting from early April until mid-to late May. But unlike corn,
cucumber production has the advantage of the high price periods in the
market, especially for the spring planting (Figure 7). Also an early fall
planting which is harvested from mid-October to mid-November shows
potential for profitable marketing. Cucumbers show a high net return
potential in December as well as for the period from early April through
late May. Immokalee-Lee area cost data were used for calculating average
weekly net returns. Positive returns can be identified for a fall harvest
and from early April through late May in the spring (Figure 8). Note that
even the minimum average weekly net returns exhibit positive values for
some period.
However, to have expectations of profitable marketing, cost of
producing cucumbers on phosphatic clay would have to be less than $10.84
per bushel. Little differences were evident regarding the existence of
potential market when comparing average weekly deflated net returns with
non-deflated returns.
$32.00 -
$30.00 -
$28.00 -
$26.00 -
$24.00 -
$22.00 -
$20,00 -
$18.00-
$16.00.
$14.00 -
$12,00
$10.00
oo-
$800o
V -00 -
$4.00
$2.00
$24.00
$22 00
$20 00
$1 I.00
$i .o0
$14 00
$12 00
$10.00
$8 .00
$6 00
$4 00
$2,00
$0.oo
($2.00)
($4.00)
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27' 29 31 33 35 37 39
PRODUCTION WEEK (1-First week of Oct.)
0 AVERAGE + MAXIMUM 0 MINIMUM
FIGURE 8: AVERAGE WEEKLY NET RETURNS FOR CUCUMBERS,
1977-78 TO 1984-85
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39
PRODUCTION WEEK (1-First week of Oct.)
D AVERAGE + MAXIrUM o MINIMUM
FIGURE 7: AVERAGE WEEKLY PRICES FOR CUCUMBERS,
1977-78 TO 1984-85
Peppers
Pepper production has two potential production seasons in the
phosphatic clay area in Polk County. If transplanting is used for fall
plantings, crops can be harvested as early as mid-November and harvesting
can be continued through December until frost. The first harvest from
spring planting can begin in early May and last for two to three weeks, and
the last harvest can begin in early June. As shown in Figure 9, pepper
production in the areas with weather conditions typical of Polk County do
not have a marketing opportunity during January February, and March-
April, when high prices are present in the market. Thus, pepper production
cannot take advantage of most of the favorable market due to weather. The
average cost data from two different producing areas, Immokalee-Lee, and
Palm Beach-Broward were used to calculate average weekly net returns. Under
this assumption, market potentials for fall planting does not exist.
Although spring planting shows positive average weekly net returns for four
to five weeks (Figure 10), it may be too short to be considered as a market
window for peppers. Only if peppers can be produced at a cost below $9.10
per bushel, would it have an expected market potential. Deflating the
average weekly net return has no effect on the shape and trend of returns.
Squash
Prices for two types of squash; straight-neck and crook-neck, and the
average cost from three producing areas; Immokalee-Lee, Palm Beach-Broward,
and Dade County were used in evaluating the market potential for squash.
$40.00-
.- Production Production Season
Season
$30.00-
$25.00-
$20.00-
$15.00
$10.00 -
3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33
PRODUCTION WEEK (1-Firlt week of DOt.)
D AVERAGE + MAXIMUM o MINIMUM
FIGURE 9: AVERAGE WEEKLY PRICES FOR PEPPERS,
1977-78 TO 1984-85
$35 00
$30 00 Production Production Season
Season
$25 00
$15,00 -
'Sl.OO -
$0.00
$ooo-
($5.00)
{$.5.oo) II
3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33
PRODUCTION WEEK (1First week of Oct.)
D AVERAGE + MAXIMUM 0 MINIMUM
FIGURE 10: AVERAGE WEEKLY NET RETURNS FOR PEPPERS,
1977-78 TO 1984-85
17
Average weekly prices for these two types are different. Although the
average weekly prices for each type fluctuates during the production
season, the high and low prices for each type of squash do not coincide
(Figures 11 and 13). As a result, average weekly net returns illustrate
different patterns for the two squashes.
The production season for squash in Polk County occurs over the same
time span as for corn and cucumbers. Early fall plantings are harvested
from mid-October to mid-November, with harvest of the late fall plantings
starting early in December and continuing through the end of December.
Spring crops can be harvested from early April through mid- or late May.
Average weekly price trends for both types show that production of this
crop can take advantage of some of the.high prices in the market. However,
only the crookneck squash exhibits positive average weekly net returns for
the entire production season. The average weekly net returns for crookneck
squash show a favorable market potential for both spring as well as fall
planting. The market window analysis for straight-neck squash does not
illustrate similar results (Figures 12 and 14). Assuming that additional
supply would not affect the market price of squash, production costs below
$6.65 per bushel for straight-neck and below $10.00 per bushel for
crookneck would lead to an expectation for profitable production during the
periods identified. An analysis of average weekly deflated net returns
yields similar conclusions.
$24.00
$22.00
$20,00
$1800
$16.00
$14.00
$12.00
$10.00
$8.00
$4.00
$2.00
$14.00
$8 00
$ 400
$2.00
10.00
$2.00
($4.00)
($4.00)
($800)
($8 00)
3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33
PRODUCTION WEEK (1-First wek of Oct.)
0 AVERAGE + MAXIMUM MINIMUM
FIGURE 11: AVERAGE WEEKLY PRICES FOR STAIGHTNECK SQUASH,
1977-78 TO 1984-85
3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 '25 27 29 31 33
PRODUCTION WEEK (1-First week of Oct.)
0 AVERAGE + MAXIMUM 0 MINIMUM
FIGURE 12: AVERAGE WEEKLY NET RETURNS FOR STRAIGHTNECK SQUASH,
1977-78 TO 1984-85
$26.00
$24.00 Production \ Production Season
Season
$22.00 -
$2.oo -
$20.00 -
$16,00 -
$14.00-
$124.00
SC.oo -
12.00
S 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
PRODUCTION WEEK (1-First week of Oct.)
0 AVERAGE + MAXIMUM 0 MINIMUM
FIGURE 13: AVERAGE WEEKLY PRICES FOR CROOKNECK SQUASH,
1977-78 TO 1984-85
$10200 -
50.oo0
$10.00
. $4.00
64.00 -
$2,00
($2.00)
($4 00)
3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 '27 29 31 33
PRODUCTION WEEK (I-First week of Oct.)
O AVERAGE + MAXIMUM o MINIMUM
FIGURE 14: AVERAGE WEEKLY NET RETURNS FOR CROOKNECK SQUASH,
1977-78 TO 1984-85
CONCLUSION
The results of this study indicate that, under conditions assumed,
there appears to be market windows for some of the selected vegetables that
could be grown on reclaimed phosphatic clay. Cabbage, white sweet corn,
cucumbers, and crookneck squash are among those having favorable
expectations for market potentials. Yellow sweet corn, peppers, and
straight-neck squash have little market potential.
These conclusions, however, are conditioned by a number of caveats.
These caveats are: 1) Production costs are recorded on an annual basis,
assuming that the production costs are constant throughout the entire
season; 2) Marketing of vegetables has many dimensions that are not
manifested in monetary values, assuming that sufficient quantity of these
vegetables can enter into the marketing channels with no difficulties; and
3) The likely negative effect of additional supplies on market prices has
not taken into consideration.
With respect to overall conditions in vegetable markets, cost of
production is the most important factor in determining the economic
feasibility of these crops for phosphatic clay. Therefore it is important
to develop realistic estimates of the cost of producing various crops on
phosphatic clay on a commercialized scale. However, to have expectations of
profitable crops, it would appear that the cost of producing these
vegetables on phosphatic clay would have to be less than; $6.40 per 50 lb.
for cabbage, $6.15 per crate for white corn, $5.23 per crate for yellow
corn, $10.84 per bushel for cucumbers, $9.10 per bushel for peppers, $6.65
per bushel for st.neck squash, and $10.00 per bushel for crookneck squash.
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