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Office of Technology Asseissment U.S. Congress Fiscal Year 1991 Justification of Estimates NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION UNTIL AFTER HEARINGS ON LEGISLATIVE APPROPRIATIONS Submitted to Subcommittee on Legislative Branch Appropriations December 20, 1989
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Office of Technology Assessment Congressional Board of the 101st Congress EDWARD M. KENNEDY, Massachusetts, Chairman CLARENCE E. MILLER, Ohio, Vice Chairman Senate ERNEST F. HOLLINGS South Carolina CLAIBORNE PELL Rhode Island TED STEVENS Alaska ORRIN G. HATCH Utah CHARLES E. GRASSLEY Iowa DAVIDS. POTTER, Chairman General Afotors Corp. (Ret.) CHASE N. PETERSON, Vice Chairman University of Utah CHARLES A. BOWSHER General Accounting Office MICHEL T. HALBOUTY "j,[ichel T. Halbouty Energy Co. JOHN H. GIBBONS (Nonvoting) Advisory Council NEILE. HARL Iowa State University JAMES C. HUNT University of Tennessee HENRY KOFFLER University of Arizona JOSHUA LEDERBERG Rockefeller University Director JOHN H. GIBBONS House MORRIS K. UDALL Arizona GEORGE E. BROWN, JR. California JOHN D. DINGELL Michigan DON SUNDQUIST Tennessee AMO HOUGHTON New York WILLIAM J. PERRY H&Q Technology Partners SALLY RIDE California Space Institute JOSEPH E. ROSS Congressional Research Service JOHN F.M. SIMS Usibelli Coal .\1ine, Inc. The Technology Assessment Board approves the release of this report. The views expressed in this report are not necessarily those of the Board, OT A Advisory Council, or individual members thereof.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Section 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. BUDGET IN BRIEF ............................................................................................................ 1 Schedules A, B, and C --OTA Request and Analysis of Change ........ ........................... 3 Explanation of Changes Shown on Schedule C ............................................................. '... 6 Summary of Agency Request ............................................................................................... 8 Overview of OT A's Role ...................................................................................................... 9 OT A's Accomplishments During Fiscal Year 1989 ......................................................... 9 Changes in OTA's Prior Plans for Fiscal Year 1989 ..................................................... 19 OT A's-Goals for Fiscal Year 1991 ................................................................................... 20 OTA's Workload and Product Data .................................................................................. 24 Direct and Indirect Employees of the Agency .................................................. ............... 27 Division A: Energy, Materials, and International Security ........................................... 29 1. Schedules Al, B 1, and Cl ........................................................................................... 29 2. Explanation of Changes Shown on Schedule Cl .................................................... : 32 3. Role of the Division ..................................................................................................... 33 4. Accomplishments of the Division ............................................................................... 33 5. Changes in Prior Plans for Fiscal Year 1989 ............................................................ 36 6. Priorities During Fiscal Years 1990 and 1991 .......................................................... 36 7. Workload Data .............................................................................................................. .. 4L, 8. Staffing of the Division ............................................................................................. (. 42 j Division B: Health and Life Sciences ............................................................................... --43' 1. Schedules Al, Bl, and Cl ............................................................................................ 43 2. Explanation of Changes Shown on Schedule Cl ..................................................... 46 3. Role of the Division ..................................................................................................... 4 7 4. Accomplishments of the Division ............................................................................... 4 7 5. Changes in Prior Plans for Fiscal Year 1989 ............................................................ 51 6. Priorities During Fiscal Years 1990 and 1991 .......................................................... 51 7. Workload Data ............................................................................................................... .-5?-.'> 8. Staffing of the Division .............................................................................................. ~.5_n......----Division C: Science, Information, and Natural Resources ............................................ 57 1. Schedules Al, Bl, and Cl ............................................................................................ 57 2. Explanation of Changes Shown on Schedule Cl ..................................................... 60 3. Role of the Division ..................................................................................................... 61 4. Accomplishments of the Division ............................................................................... 61 5. Changes in Prior Plans for Fiscal Year 1989 ............................................................ 65 6. Priorities During Fiscal Years 1990 and 1991 .......................................................... 65 7. Workload Data .............................................................................................................. _6.9 ., 8. Staffing of the Division ............................................................................................. ,._; 10 _) Division G: General and Administrative ......................................................................... 7f 1. Schedules Al, Bl, and Cl ............................................................................................ 71 2. Explanation of Changes Shown on Schedule Cl ..................................................... 74 3. Role of the Division ...................................................................................................... 16... 4. Staffing of the Division ............................................................................................. (. 77 ) Ten Year Quantitative Data ............................................................................................... n Object Class Definitions ...................................................................................................... 80 Supplementary Information ................................................................................................ 82 A. Publications Printed and Delivered During Fiscal Year 1989 .............................. 83 B. Publication Information ............................................................................................... 93 C. Assessments In Progress and Related Information ................................................. 96 D. Others Services to the Congress ................................................................................ 132 1. Testimony ................................................................................................................. 132 2. Briefings ................................................................................................................... 136 -1 -
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-1 -OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT FISCAL YEAR 1991 BUDGET IN BRIEF TOTHE SUBCOMMIITEB ON LEGISLATIVE BRANCH APPROPRIATIONS The funds requested represent the best estimate of the Technology Assessment Board of what is required to meet OTA's needs for the second session of the 101st Congress. FY 91 Budget Request: Includes: $21,000 for the Prospective Payment Assessment Commission, authorized in 42 U.S.C. 1395ww $12,000 for the Physician Payment Review Commission, authorized in 42 U.S.C. 1395w-1 $30,000 for Monitoring of Mandated Veterans Studies, authorized in P.L. 96-151, P.L. 98-160, and P.L. 99-272 FY 90 Budget Request: $19,655,000 FY 90 Appropriat10n: Reduced by Drug Initiative P.L. 101-164 Reduced by G-R-H Sequestration P.L. 99-177 FY 90 Budget Base: ESTIMATED INCREASE IN FY 91 REQUEST OVER FY 90 BUDGET BASE: Salaries and Expenses $20,710,000 $18,900,000 (81,000) (248,000) $18,571,000 $ 2,139,000 For salaries and expenses necessary to carry out the provisions of the Technology Assessment Act of 1972 (Public Law 92-484 ), including official representation and reception expenses (not to exceed [$2,000] $3,500 from the Trust Fund) to be expended on certification of the Director of the Office of Technology Assessment, expenses incurred in administering an employee incentive awards program (not to exceed $1,800), rental of space in the District of Columbia, and those necessary to carry out the duties of the Director of the Office of Technology Assessment under 42 U.S.C. 1395ww, and 42 U.S.C. 1395w-l, [and Public Law 100-360,] [$18,900,000] $20,710,000: Provided, That none of the funds in this Act shall be available for salaries or expenses of any employee of the Office of Technology Assessment in excess of 143 staff employees: Provided further, That no part of this appropriation shall be available for assessments or activities not initiated and approved in accordance with section 3( d) of Public Law 92-484, except that funds shall be available for the assessment required by Public Law 96-151: Provided further, That none of the funds in this Act shall be available for salaries or expenses of employees of the Office of Technology Assessment in connection with any reimbursable study for which funds are provided from sources other than appropriations made under this Act, or be available for any other administrative expenses incurred by the Office of Technology J. .:,sessment in carrying out such a study.
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-2 -OBLIGATION SUMMARY OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT Salaries and Expenses Fiscal Year (Dollars in $000) Gross Appropriation Reduced by Drug Initiative Reduced by G-R-H Budget Base General and Administrative Fixed Costs Planning Testimony, Follow-on, Special Analyses Prospective Payment Assessment Commission Physican Payment Review Commission Veterans Studies Formal Assessments Continuation of Assessments Initiated in Prior Fiscal Years New Assessments to be Initiated Total Formal Assessments Total 1990 (Estimated} 18,900 (81) (248) 18,571 5,746 900 1,283 21 11 26 8,254 10,584 18,571 Fiscal Year 1991 (Estimated) 6,082 1,027 1,464 21 12 30 9,439 12,074 20,710 Estimated Change 336 127 181 0 4 1,185 1,490 2,139
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I I I I I I Schedu,,e A -3 -l. SCHEDULES A, B, AND C -AGENCY REQUEST AND ANALYSIS OF CHANGE I Office of Technology Assessment Sumnary By Organization and By Object Class I FY 89 FY 90 I FY 91 I I ACTUAL I ESTIMATE I ESTIMATE I NET CHANGE 90/91I l-----------------l-----------------1-----------------1-----------------I I I I I I I I I I I I DOLLARS I I DOLLARS I I DOLLARS I I DOLLARS I I CATEGORIES I STAFF I ($000) I STAFF I ($000) I STAFF I ($000) I STAFF I ($000) I l------------------------------------------1-----------------I-----------------I-----------------I-----------------I I I I I I I I I I I 1. Breakdown by Organization: I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I Energy, Materials, and International I I I I I I I I Security Division I 36 I 3,973 I 36 I 4,275 I 36 I 4,876 0 601 I I I I I I I I I I Health and Life Sciences Division I 36 I 4,032 I 36 I 4,275 I 36 I 4,876 0 601 I I I I I I I I I I Science, Information, and Natural I I I I I I I I Resources Division I 36 I 4,188 I 36 I 4,275 I 36 I 4,876 0 601 I I I I I I I I I I General and Administration Division I 35 I 5,698 I 35 I 5,746 I 35 I 6,082 0 336 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I Total I 143 I 17,891 I 143 I 18,571 I 143 I 20,710 I O I 2,139 I I 1----------------------------------------------------------------------~1 I 1-----------------------------------------------------------------------I I 2. Breakdown by Object Class: I I I I I 11 Personnel Compensation 8,883 9,691 10,468 777 I I 12 Personnel Benefits l, 653 l, 738 l, 902 164 I I 13 Benefits to Former Personnel 28 28 35 7 I I 21 Travel 312 343 361 18 I I 22 Transportation of Things 78 82 86 4 I I 23 Rent, Communication and Utilities 1,943 2,017 2,136 119 I I 24 Printing and Reproduction 536 586 629 43 I I 25 Other Services 3,508 3,287 4,258 971 I I 26 Supplies and Materials 302 316 330 14 I I 31 Equipment 648 483 505 22 I I 32 Land and Structures 0 0 0 0 I I 42 Insurance Claims and Indemnities 0 0 0 0 I I I I Total 17,891 18,571 20,710 2,139 I I I 1 ______________________________ 1
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Schedule B CATEGORIES -4 -Office of Technology Assessment Analysis of Change to Budget Base By Organization and by Object Class I I I I PROGRAM TYPE CHANGES I I l-------------1-------------1-------------I I I I I I EQUIPMENT' I !MANDATORY PAYJ I I I ALTERATIONS, I I AND RELATED I PRICE LEVEL I I I MAINTENANCE, I TOTAL I COSTS I CHANGES I LEGISLATION I WORKLOAD !REPAIRS, ETC. J CHANGES I l-------------l-------------l-------------1-------------1-------------I--------------I I IDOLLARsl IDOLLARsl JDoLLARsJ IDoLLARsl IDOLLARsl IDOLLARs I lsTAFFjc$oooi jsTAFFjc$oooi jsTAFFIC$OOOl lsTAFFIC$OOOl lsTAFFlc$oooi jsTAFFI C$oooi I -----------------------------------------1-------------I-------------I-----------------------------------------------------1 I I I I I 1. Breakdown By Organizations: I I I I I I I I I I Energy, Materials, and International I I I I I Security Division o I 288 I o 88 I o I o o 225 o o o 601 I I I I I I Health and Life Sciences Division o I 246 I o 96 I o I o o 259 o o o 601 I I I I I I Science, Information, and Natural I I I I I Resources Division o I 251 I o 82 I o I o o 262 o o o 601 I I I I I I General and Administration Division o I 151 I o 200 I o I o o c21i o o o 336 I I I I I I Total o I 948 I o 466 I o I o o 125 o o o 2,139 I --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 I I I 12. Breakdown By Object Class: I I I I I I 11 Personnel Compensation 777 I 777 I I 12 Personnel Benefits 164 I 164 I I 13 Benefits to Former Personnel 7 I 7 I I 21 Travel I 18 18 I I 22 Transportation of Things I 4 4 I I 23 Rent, Coamunications and Utilities J 113 6 119 I I 24 Printing and Reproduction I 43 43 I I 25 Other Services I 252 719 971 I I 26 Supplies and Materials I 14 14 I I 31 Equipment I 22 22 I I 32 Land and Structures I O I I 42 Insurance Claims and Indemnities I O I I I I I Total 948 I 466 0 725 0 I 2,139 I 1 ______________________ 1 ______________________ ______ 1
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-5 -Schedule C Office of Technology Assessment Sunmary I. Detailed J~..alysis of Changes Appropriation, 1990 Minus: Drug Initiative P.L. 101-164 Minus: G-R-B Sequestration P.L. 9S-177 Budget Base, 1990 Adjustments to Base I Calculation of Base 1------------------------------1 I Amount I Staff I ($000) 1---------1------------------1 143 I 18,900 I o I (81> I o I c248> I 143 I 18,511 1===1-~==== I 1991 Request 1---------1--------------------1 I Amount I Staff I ($000) A. Mandatory Pay and Related Costs 948 1. Merit increases and promotions averaging 3.5%. 2. Corresponding 3.5% increase of benefits averaging 18%. 3. Miscellaneous benefit cost increases. 4. Annualization of FY '90 cost-of-living adjustment. 5. Additional claim for unemployment compensation. 6. Impact of congressional pay raise including benefits. 7. Estimated FY '91 cost-of-living adjustment. B. Price Level Changes 1. Travel related inflation of 5.0X 2. Transportation services inflation of 4.6% 3. Building lease rate increase. 4. Copier service inflation of 4.6% 5. Telephone services inflation of 4.6% 6. Miscellaneous rent and coomunication inflation of 4.6% 7. Printing and supplies inflation of 7%. 8. Facilities management wage determination and overhead costs. 9. Other services inflation. 10. Supplies and materials inflation of 4.6% 11. Equipment inflation of 4.6% C. Program Type Changes 1. Legislation 2. Workload a. Restoration of contracting services. b. Non-recurring payroll conversion costs. c. Increased payroll service agreement cost. d. Increased Telenet service cost for payroll. 3. Equipment, Alterations, Maintenance, Repairs, Etc. II. Net Increase/Decrease Requested III. Total Appropriation Request, 1991 0 143 332 59 42 90 7 272 146 18 4 98 7 7 1 466 43 I 42 I 210 I 14 I 22 I I o I 125 I 746 I c3o> I 3 I 6 I a I I 2,139 I 20,710 1----_________
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-6 -2. EXPLANATION OF CHANGES SH'WN ON SCHEDULE C FOR THE OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT l------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 I EXPLAf'I TION OF CHANGES SHOWN ON SCHEDULE C I l==========================I IA. MANDATORY PAY AND RELATED COSTS I Staff I Amount ($000) I l-----------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I I 1. Merit increases and promotions iveraging 3.5 agency-wide. I I 332 I l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I I 2. Corresponding 3.5X increase in b~nefits which average 18 agency-I I I I wide associated with merit increases and promotions. I I 59 I 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I I 3. Miscellaneous cost increases including the annualization of I I I I FY '90 heal th increases plus planned FY '90 increases. I I 42 I l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I I 4. Annualization of cost-of-living adjustment effective January 1990. I I 90 I 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I I 5. Additional claim anticipated for unemployment compensation. I I 7 I l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I I 6. Impact of P.L. 101-194 on congressional pay and corresponding I I I I benefits. I I 272 I 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I I 7. Fifty percent of FY '91 cost-of-living adjustment effective January! I I I 1991 per 0MB memorandum. I I 146 I I ============= 1-----1-----------1 IB. PRICE LEVEL CHANGES I Staff I Amount ($000) I l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I I 1. Travel related inflation rates of 5.0X applied to FY '90 I I I I base due to expected rise in plane fares and car rental costs. I I 18 I l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I I 2. Transportation services inflation rate of 4. 6X applied to I I I I FY '90 base. I I 4 I l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I I 3. Building lease escalation based on change in CPI-W for space, I I I I anticipated increases in taxes, and increases in operating costs I I I I due to union labor rate increases and planned building repairs. I I 98 I l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I I 4. Copier services inflation rate of 4.6X applied to FY '90 base. I I 7 I 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I I 5. Telephone services inflation rate of 4.6 applied to FY '90 base. I I 7 I 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I I 6. Miscellaneous rent and colllllUilication inflation rate of 4. 6 I I I I applied to FY '90 base. I I 1 I l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I I 7. Printing and supplies inflation rate of 7 (according to GPO I I I I Circular Letter No. 307 (dated April 28, 1989) applied to I I I I FY '90 base. I I 43 J 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I J 8. Estimated facilities management wage determination increases I I J I (based on Service Contract Labor Standard Act) and merit increases, I I I J for an average of 7.17. applied to the FY '90 base. I J 42 J 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I
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-7 -l-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 I EXPLANATION OF CHANGES SHOWN ON SCHEDULE C I l=--------====-=---=--==--==-=---------=-===-1 I 9. Other services inflation rate of 4.6X applied to FY '90 base exceptl I I for research contracts, for which lOX inflation rate was applied. I I 210 I 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I 110. Supplies and materials inflation rate of 4.6X applied to FY '90 I I I I base. I I 14 I 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I 111. Equipment (including furniture, permanent books, ADP equipment) I I I I inflation rate of 4.6X applied to FY '90 base. I I 22 I 1----------~-----~-~-~----1 I C. PROGRAM TYPE CHANGES I Staff I Amount ($000) l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I 1. Legislation I I 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------1----------------------------2 Workload 1 . ... . 1 2a. Restoration of contracting dollars to provide for additional contracts, increased contract competition, and expanded work statements across-the-board. b. Non-recurring payroll/personnel conversion implementation costs. c. Estimated increase for payroll/personnel service agreement cost. I I I I I 746 (30) 3 d. Estimated increase for Telenet service for payroll/personnel systeml 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------1----------------------------3. Equipment, Alterations, Maintenance, Repairs, Etc. I 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------1----------------------------
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Schedule D -8 -3. SUMMARY OF AGENCY REQUEST Office of Technology Assessment Summary of Agency Request FY 1991 Budget Request I 11 II II II II II I Calculation of Base 1---------1----------------1 Staff I Amount I I 1---------1----------------1 !Gross Appropriation, 1990 I 143 I 11 Minus : Drug Initiative I I 11 Minus: G-R-H Sequestration I I I I Budget Base, 1990 I I 18,900 (81) (248) 18,571 I 1---=--==~=-=-=l=-=====--I=---===-~~ II I I I !Proposed Changes for FY 1990 I I I I II II Mandatory Pay and Related Cost I O I I I Price Level Changes I I Program Type Changes Legislation Workload Equipment, Alterations, Maintenance, Repairs, Etc. I o I I I I O I I o I I I I o I 948 466 0 725 0 11 II II 11 II 1---------1----------------1 !Total Proposed Changes I O I 2,139 I l-----------------------------------1---------1----------------I jFY 1991 Budget Request I 143 I 20,710 I l-----------------------------------1---------I----------------
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-9 -4. Overview of OT A's Role The Berlin Wall has new doors to freedom; the Iron Curtain has been tom. Perestroika, glasnost, and solidarity are actions not images. These shifts in the political underpinnings of the East-European bloc suggest, to some theorists, the "end of history" and the beginning of an era of complacency. Without ideological conflict, they posit, we will be left with only technical problems that can be solved routinely and swiftly. Can U.S. policy makers afford to be as sanguine, when changes in Eastern and Western Europe also create change in U.S. world position? One lesson we have surely learned in the past 2-4 decades is that the pace of technical change itself can create great social upheaval as well as great progress toward many social goals. Each technical solution to one problem also generates a new set of issues to be resolved. In other words, there's no free lunch. Advances in biotechnology, for instance, gave us marketable bovine growth hormone, but that, in turn, gave us consumer wariness and major impacts on the dairy industry. Congress is inescapably drawn into the process of developing a strategy to encourage innovation and maintain our competitive position while avoiding the possibility that we unfairly displace farmers or alarm consumers. Triumphs in genetics, superconductors, and communications are not isolated events. The mix of new technologies creates an array of interlocking problems, thereby requiring a broader approach to problem-solving and policy-making. To assist Congress in its deliberations on emerging and existing technologies, OTA provides the necessary arena for experts and stakeholders to lay out their differences and identify areas of consensus. OT A works with committees to help Congress understand the potential impacts of technologies and form decisions that reflect both local and global concerns. The bipartisan, bicameral Technology Assessment Board --a critical element in OT A's reputation for objectivity and relevance --has approved studies for the coming year that consider the interdependent consequences of technological development: from energy supply and demand in developing countries (and how this affects both economic development and climate change), to monitoring compliance with possible arms control measures; from promoting technology development and managing trade in Europe and the Far East, to identifying the real costs of pharmaceutical drug research and development; from bridging the gap between rural and urban America through information technologies, to the hazards of medical wastes. OTA's studies generally reflect the range of Committee interests --on both sides of the aisle and both sides of the Hill. OTA thus serves as a small, highly skilled, shared resource for all of Congress ... a unique way to maximize technical assistance at minimum cost. 5. OT A's Accomplishments During Fiscal Year 1989 During FY 1989, OTA delivered 26 formal publications to Congress, including assessment reports, an interim summary, special reports, a technical memorandum, and several background papers. (See pages 83-91.) As of September 30, 1989, 37 Technology Assessment Board (TAB) approved studies were in progress and 7 were in press or under TAB review. As an integral part of carrying out assessments, OTA also provided, during the course of projects as well as after delivery, expert advice, briefings, testimony, and results of OTA assessments to Committees matched to their specific needs and the Congressional agenda. (See pages 132-136.) OTA reports represent comprehensive synthesis and analysis on some of the most controversial and costly issues faced by Congress ... covering, for example, hazardous waste reduction and management, international trade and technology transfer, the future of American agriculture, the technology for defensive weapons, health care cost containment, and the future of biotechnology. These studies directly reflect the express~d needs and
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-10-priorities of Committees of House and Senate. During the year, OTA served over 80 different Committees and Subcommittees of both houses, typically in response to bipartisan requests. Relation of Work to Legislative Activities OTA's role is neither to promote nor to discourage the development or the application of any particular technology or legislation but rather to help Congress determine whether or when some form of Federal government participation may make sense. OTA helps identify and clarify options; exposes misleading, unsupportable, or incorrect information; and helps raise the level of understanding in the debate about expensive and controversial technical issues. In each section on accomplishments in OTA's divisions, we identify some activities during fiscal years 1989 and 1990 that illustrate the link between OT A's work and specific Congressional activity. Please see the following pages for this information: Energy, Materials. and International Security Division page Energy and Materials ................................................................................................... 34 Industry, Technology, and Employment ................................................................... 35 International Security and Commerce ...................................................................... 36 Health and Life Sciences Division Biological Applications ................................................................................................ 4 7 Food and Renewable Resources ................................................................................ 48 Health ............................................................................................................................. 49 Science. Information, and Natural Resources Division Communication and Information Technologies ...................................................... 62 Oceans and Environment ............................................................................................ 62 Science, Education, and Transportation ................................................................... 64 Mandate Avoidance OTA works closely with members of TAB and the Appropriations Committees to maintain the authority of the Board to determine the agenda of the agency and the best use of OT A's limited resources for the whole Congress. Because demand for OT A assistance exceeds the resources made available to the agency, some committees attempt to initiate studies through new legislation rather than request studies through the Board (as was contemplated in OTA's enabling legislation). Mandates are strongly discouraged as a mechanism to obtain OT A's help, and potential mandates are often avoided when we are able to work with the interested parties prior to introduction of bills. Nevertheless, during the first session of the 101st Congress, a number of bills were introduced that would, if passed, mandate activities for OTA. For example: H.R.7 Last action: reported out of Senate committee November 1. Would require OTA to evaluate (for validity, fairness, accuracy, and utility) a demonstration program to monitor educational outcomes for applied technology education using wage and other records. Would also require OTA to conduct an assessment of a sample of tests designed to be administered to students who have completed secondary school to assess the level of technical knowledge relating to broad technical fields possessed by such students. The study would be due to Congress not later than September 30, 1994.
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H.R.99 H.R. 370 H.R. 1078 H.R. 1240 H.R. 1746 H.R. 2076 H.R. 2091 H.R. 2263 -11 -Last action: hearings held May 24. Would require the EPA Administrator to consult with OTA in designing a study of the feasibility of meeting standards in-use [ vehicle emissions]. Last action: hearings held July 13. Would direct the Office of Technology Assessment to conduct a study of the effects of the reclassification of anhydrous ammonia as a poisonous gas and transmit a report to Congress within 18 months of enactment. Last action: referred to subcommittee May 1. Would require OTA, within 2 years of enactment, to report to Congress on OTA's review of forestry projects and programs in tropical countries financed by the Agency for International Development and the extent to which these projects promote agroforestry and reforestation which discourages monoculture estates and which involve local people in the design, implementation, and monitoring of projects. Last action: referred to subcommittee March 13. Would require OTA, within 3 years of enactment, to conduct an evaluation of the performance of the Agency for International Development in carrying out this Act and report the result of the evaluation to Congress. [AID is directed to facilitate equitable economic growth and participatory development, national and regional economic integration, environmental sustainability, food security, and self reliance in the Caribbean through responsive aid and development policies and programs.] Last action: Additional sponsors added October 16, 1989 Would require OTA to conduct a study of: 1) all incentives under law for the protection and management of wetlands; 2) modifications to law that might improve their effectiveness; and 3) ways the federal government could encourage State and local incentives for wetlands protections. The report would be due one year from enactment. Last action: referred to committee April 25. Would require OTA to determine whether manufacturers are likely to comply with the average fuel economy standards without incentives, and if incentives are thought to be required, to suggest cost-effective incentives. The report would be due to the President and each House of Congress within 18 months of enactment. Last action: referred to committee April 27. Would amend title XVIII of the Social Security Act to require an annual report from the Director of the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment on changes in payment amounts for certain surgical transplantation procedures. The first report would be due one year after the date of enactment. Last action: referred to subcommittee May 11. Would require the Director of OTA to appoint the 13 members of a new Long-Term Care Advisory Council within one month of enactment.
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H.R. 2655 H.R. 2980 H.R. 3150 H.R. 3299 S.933 s. 1036 s. 1153 -12 Last action: received in the Senate July 11. Would require OTA to conduct an evaluation of the performance of the agency administering the Foreign Assistance Act within 3 years of enactment. Last action: referred to subcommittee July 31. Would require the Director of OTA to appoint the 9 members of a new National Council on Quality Assurance (the Director could increase membership under certain conditions). OTA would be required to issue an annual report on the Council's progress. Last action: referred to committee August 4. Would require OTA to conduct at study to determine the costs associated with various modalities of dialysis treatments provided to end stage renal disease patients and make recommendatlons regarding the level at which the composite rate used to determine the amounts of payments made should be established. This study would be delivered not later than June 1, 1990. Would also require OTA, by July 1, 1990, to submit a report on alternative acquisition and reimbursement strategies for reducing expenditures for certain drugs used to treat end stage renal disease patients in a manner that does not adversely affect the quality of care provided to such patients. Last action: conference held October 25. Would require the Director of OTA to conduct a study of the appropriateness of medicare reimbursement for experimental cancer treatment under research protocols, including an analysis of the costs to the medicare program of such reimbursement, whether such reimbursement should be limited to cancer center hospitals, and any controls the program should place on such reimbursement. The report would be due to the Committee on Ways and Means in the House and the Committee on Finance in the Senate on June 1, 1992. Last action: (House bill) printed as it passed Senate October 16. Would require OTA to undertake a study of the access needs of individuals with disabilities to over-the-road buses. The bill prescribes the types of advisers to be appointed to guide the study and sets a deadline for completion of 3 years from enactment. Last action: referred to House committee September 26. Would require OTA to include, in a study of the effects of information age technology on rural America, an analysis of the feasibility of ensuring that rural citizens in their homes and schools have the ability to acquire, by computer, information in a national library. Last action: referred to House committee August 4. Would require the Secretary of Veterans' Affairs to consult with OTA before compiling or analyzing any information; would require OTA to review all annual reports before they are submitted to Congress; and in the event NAS is unwilling to cooperate, would require OTA to consult on the issue of the establishment and maintenance of a tissue archiving system.
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s. 1237 s. 1442 s. 1578 s. 1593 -13 Last action: hearings held July 18. Would require the Director of OTA to serve on an interagency council to encourage the use and development of agricultural commodity-based plastics. Last action: referred to subcommittee September 13. Would establish a Congressional Council on Education and Space and make the Director of OTA an ex-officio member of the Council. The bill also states that to the maximum extent practicable, the Council shall be located in the facilities of OTA Last action: referred to subcommittee August 5. Makes a representative appointed by the Director of OT A a member of the Board of Trustees for the National Center for Preservation Technology. Last action: referred to committee September 12. Encourages OTA ( among others) to assist the newly established National Commission on Natural Resources Disasters with personnel and support services without reimbursement. OTA works closely with many committees to fulfill their requests for information through accepted channels. Efforts to avoid mandates may become more difficult as OT A's budget becomes tighter and the agency is forced to refuse or curtail a greater number of requests, even when made through proper channels. Mandated Activities Despite efforts to avoid mandates, over the past several years OT A has undertaken several projects as a result of legislative mandates. Our ongoing activity, Monitoring of Mandated Veteran Studies (mandated by P.L. 96-151) is the longest-lived piece of "legislated" work. OTA's initial work in this area led to additional mandates: P.L. 98-160 requires that OTA monitor certain federal research activities with regard to veterans exposed to atomic radiation; P.L. 99-272 requires that OTA monitor certain federal research activities with regard to women veterans. In recent years, there have been mandates for full assessments. In FY 1986, OTA delivered an assessment, Payment for Physician Services, mandated by P.L. 98-369. OT A's assessment of the Strategic Defense Initiative was mandated by P.L. 99-190; a classified version of this report was delivered to appropriate committees in September 1987 (an unclassified version was released in June 1988). The 100th Congress produced legislation that required special analytical responses from OTA. P.L. 100-180 required OTA's participation in a Conventional Defense Study Group that assessed the balance of conventional forces in Europe between the forces and NATO and the forces of the Warsaw Pact. The Comptroller General, leader of the study group, requested OTA to convene a workshop on Soviet views of the conventional balance in Europe. P.L. 100-435, enacted during the second session of the 100th Congress, requires OTA to develop model performance standards, and review those actually developed by the Secretary of Agriculture, with regard to employment and training requirements within the food stamps program. A report to the Speaker, the President Pro Tempore, and the Secretary of Agriculture on the comparison/review is required.
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-14 -OTA has also been assigned the task of appointing health-related commissions. P.L. 99-660 mandated the OTA Director to appomt a citizens' Advisory Panel on Alzheimer's Disease. This mandate does not include any reporting requirements for OTA. However, OTA is required to appoint and monitor the activities of three additional commissions (see below). Prospective Pa) ment Assessment Commission (ProP AC) The Commission is an ildependent advisory committee mandated under the "Social Security Amendments of 1983" (Public Law 98-21, Section 601) that reform the Medicare program payment method. Under the Statute, the OTA Director is charged with selecting the Commission members. The first Commissioners were appointed in 1983. Six Commissioners' terms expired in March 1989, and the Director made two reappointments and four new appointments. OTA is also required to report to Congress annually on the functioning and progress of the Commission. The fourth of these reports was issued in November 1988. Physician Payment Review Commission {PhysPRC) The Physician Payment Review Commission is also an independent advisory committee mandated under the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1985 (P.L. 99-272). PhysPRC's purpose is to advise Congress and the Executive Branch on possible ways of reforming physician payment under the Medicare program. As with ProP AC, the OTA Director is statutorily charged with selecting the Commission members. Initial appointments to the 13-member Commission were made in 1986, for terms ranging from one to three years. In April of 1989, the Director reappointed three Commissioners and appointed two new Commissioners. An annual report is also required on PhysPRC, and the second of these reports was issued in November 1988. Prescription Drug Payment Review Commission (PDPRC) The Prescription Drug Payment Review Commission (PDPRC) was another independent advisory committee mandated under the Medicare Catastrophic Coverage Act of 1988 (P.L. 100-360). The Commission was mandated to report to Congress by May 1 of each year, beginning in 1990, concerning methods of determining payment for outpatient drugs covered under the new law. As with the other commissions, the Director of OTA was charged with selecting the initial Commission members and making replacement appointments each year. The initial selections were made in December 1988. The Act included a requirement for OT A to report annually to the Congress on the functioning and progress of the Commission. With repeal of the Medicare Catastrophic Coverage Act, it is unlikely that any further work regarding the Commission will be required of OTA. Interagency Coordination In carrying out OTA's mission as a shared resource to the committees of the Congress, our staff cooperate and interact extensively not only with congressional Members and staff, but also with staffs of other federal a$encies, as well as with the private sector and universities around the world. This extensive networking not only serves to avoid duplication but also helps to increase Congress' analytical resource base and enables OTA to utilize the most up-to-date information available. As a consequence, a typical OT A
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-15 assessment, costin~ $500,000, draws heavily upon the work of others that, taken together, would cost many times more. Over the past several years, OTA and the three other Congressional support agencies have adopted a process to more fully utilize each other's expertise. This is as true in administrative areas as program areas; for instance, the Library of Congress provides accounting and disbursing services to OTA on a reimbursable basis, CRS provides access to the SCORPIO database and other research assistance, and GAO provides legal advice and opinions. The Comptroller General and the Director of CRS serve on OTA's Technology Assessment Advisory Council, and agency directors meet regularly to discuss issues of common concern. CBO, CRS, and GAO staffs coordinate with, and, in some cases, participate in OTA advisory panel meetings, S}'?1posia, and workshops. The four agencies share information on related studies and proVIde new data as input to each others' projects as appropriate to their areas of expertise. In addition, two or more agencies may collaborate in the preparation of testimony or general assistance for Congressional hearings. Examples from 1989 include: OTA has shared the results of its work on alternative transportation fuels with staff of CRS's Environment and Natural Resource Policy Division, and helped to review CRS's work on methanol costs. OTA staff have met frequently with GAO staff in the course of preparing a staff paper on Technologies for Improving Minerals Royalty Management. GAO will continue with this work after OTA has delivered it's report to the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. OTA and the Semiconductor Industry Association organized a colloquium for CRS, CBO, GAO and OTA staff working on issues of semiconductor trade and technology. Approximately 50 staff attended. OT A, CRS, GAO, and CBO hold bimonthly coordination meetings on trade issues. These are small informal meetings, attended by one or two people from each agency. Information, drafts of work, and other material are exchanged, and substantive discussions of trade issues held. OTA, CRS, and GAO have established an informal working relationship on worker training issues, involving periodic meetings, sharing of information, and attendance at each other's panel meetings and workshops. ISC participated in a four agency project (under the direction of the GAO) established by the FY88-89 National Defense Authorization Act to report to the Congress on the conventional force balance in Europe. This resulted in the Report "NATO WARSAW PACT Assessment of the Conventional Force Balance" GAO/NSIAD-89-23. CRS staff served as analysts for OTA's assessment, Holding the Edge. The report has also been used by CRS as an input to several seminars on the defense technology base. CRS staff are contributing to the assessment of International Cooperation in Defense Technology. At the request of the House Government Operations Committee staff, OT A briefed GAO staff as the latter began a study of "brilliant pebbles." OTA briefed CBO staff on aspects of arms control verification. OTA staff are assisting GAO in planning for their new group on Resources, Community, and Economics in the Division of Information Services. CRS has loaned a senior staff member to OTA who will direct OTA's project on Renewable Resource Planning Technologies for Public Land Use. OTA and sister agency staff who are studying the economic issues relating to pharmaceuticals are meeting on a regular basis to share information and avoid duplication. The studies represented include OTA's study of Medicare drug payment alternatives, OTA's study of drug R&D costs, and GAO's study of trends in drug pricing. OTA hosted an Interagency Coordination Meetings on AIDS on March 21, 1989.
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-16 -GAO used OTA's Staff Paper, How Effective Is AIDS Education?, as background for its report AIDS Education: Reachin~ Populatiord at Higher Risk, prepared for the Senate Committee on Governmental Af airs. CRS cited extensively the data from OTA'~ Staff Paper, AIDS and Health Insurance An OTA Survey in two CRS reports (Insuring the Uninsured: Options and Analysis, October 1988 and Health Insurance and th! Uninsured: Background Data and Analysis, May 1988) prepared for the Subcommittee Jn Labor-Management Relations and the Subcommittee on Labor Standards of the House Committee on Education and Labor, the Subcommittee on Health and the Environment of ~he House Committee on Energy and Commerce, and the Senate Special Committee on A~ir;g. As part of CRS and OT A's coordination activities in the health insurance area, CRS facilitated OTA's obtaining, at no cost, copies of Census Bureau Current Population Survey tapes. CBO consulted with OTA on methods for and sources of information on costing out bills proposing coverage for preventive vision and hearing services under Medicare. CBO stated that they have found OTA's reports from the Preventive Services under Medicare project extremely helpful. GAO and OTA held meetings to coordinate their activities regarding prescription drug pricing policies. Both agencies were mandated or requested to do several activities regarding prescription drugs and the coordination meeting and continuing discussions are designed to avoid not only duplication of effort but also to share information that could be used as data for the other studies. OTA and GAO staff coordinated their activities concerning the Department of Veterans Affairs' study of VA hospital mortality rates. OTA drew on prior work of GAO's Policy Evaluation and Methodology Division in OTA's critique of the methodology used by DVA to analyze hospital mortality rates, and OTA used materials PEMD had prepared in the course of GA O's two studies evaluating VA and HCF A methodologies. OT A also coordinated its critique with GAO's Human Resources Division, which was requested to do a related but field-oriented investigation of management activities at the DV A related to that department's mortality study. The publication of OTA's report, Informing the Nation, in October 1988 marked the successful conclusion of a major collaborative effort between OTA and GAO. GAO conducted several surveys of the information practices and needs of Federal agencies and information users. The results of these surveys were included in the OTA report; GAO separately published the full survey results. OTA consults on a regular basis with CRS staff on municipal solid waste issues. In particular, OTA and CRS exchanged information on market for old newsprint and revenues from potential packaging fees and discussed draft legislation on several occasions. OTA also provided information, contacts and reviews for two GAO studies, one on procurement of recycled paper products and the other on degradable plastics. OTA held an overall coordination meeting with all of our sister agencies on the issues of defense nuclear waste, and we continue to maintain contact with those working on the issue. Shortly after introduction of the Administration's Clean Air bill, OTA met with CBO, CRS and EPA to consider how each would do analyses of the acid rain and ozone provisions of this and other bills. On two different occasions this year, CBO has used OTA's data and modelling results. CRS provided direct staff support for OTA's analyses of a proposed new Antarctic project. One of their specialists joined the study team and prepared a chapter for the final report. This same staffer is working on another OTA project dealing with oil spill clean-up technology. GAO has completed a study on medical waste management at Federal facilities and is finishing a study of state programs for medical waste management. However, it has been arranged that GAO will defer to OTA on the technical aspects of the problem. OT A confers regularly with EPA staff, especially at Cincinnati and Research Triangle Park labs, and with a number of state agencies.
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-17 OTA is in regular contact with several groups in the sister agencies conducting work on various aspects of global warming--primarily CRS (studies on energy efficiency, and ways to reduce CO2 by 20%) and CBO (effects of various carbon taxes on U.S. energy use and CO2 emissions). OTA also seeks to coordinate its studies with those ongoing in the Executive branch, State and local government, and in private sector and international organizations. In addition, it is not uncommon for OTA reports to have a direct impact on activities out~ide the Legislative Branch. For instance: The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), in its recently issued Transmission Task Force Report, refers frequently to OTA's assessment report, Electric Power Wheeling and Dealing; Technological Consideration for Increasing Competition, and background paper, Biological Effects of Power Frequency Electric and Magnetic Fields. In the course of OTA's assessment of High Temperature Superconductors: Research, Development and Commercialization, OTA and the National Science Foundation cooperated in the preparation of a national survey of U.S. firms involved in high temperature superconductivity research and development. OTA also cooperated with the Japanese International Superconductivity Technology Center in preparing a similar survey of Japanese firms. OTA's work on automobile fuel economy, on alternative transportation fuels, and on energy system vulnerability has benefited from a close and cooperative relationship with the Department of Energy. In connection with EP A's 90-day Review of the Superfund program, OTA met several times with the agency person in charge and the taskforce conducting the study. EPA briefed OTA on the conclusions of the Review prior to its release, and later on the implementation plan that followed. OTA staff took part in inter-agency deliberations on U.S.-Japan cooperation in superconductivity research, as called for in the new bilateral science and technology agreement between the two countries. OTA participated in task force meetings of the Defense Manufacturing Board of the Department of Defense, assisting it in tackling questions of how to identify critical industries and critical technologies. OTA, in partial fulfillment of its mandate under the Hunger Prevention Act of 1988, has been participating on .the Panel of Consultants for the Development of Employment and Training Performance Standards for the Food and Nutrition Service of the Department of Agriculture. OTA has been hosting the meetings of the Ad Hoc HDTV Group, an informal association of people from industry, academia and government. At the September meeting, the Hon. George Brown praised OTA's HDTV Primer (currently in preparation). OTA's Worker Training staff has been in close communication with key executive branch officials in the Department of Labor, the Department of Education, and the Department of Commerce. At the invitation of Labor and Education Department officials, OTA staff served as panelists at an OECD conference on international training in the services industry and at the first national conference on workplace literacy. OTA staff participated in the 1989 Federal Roundtable on Training (it's a day-long meeting involving some 50 Federal employees or contractors). The project staff has been coordinating closely with the Department of Labor's Business-Labor-Academic Commission on Workforce Quality and Labor Market Efficiency over the past 18 months. The project has also worked closely with the Department of Education-funded National Assessment of Vocational Education.
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18 OTA has been participating in the Interagency Technology Working Gro.1p. This group meets informally every 4 to 6 months to help coordinate research on industry resource and competitiveness issues. Other participants in the group include researchers from the Bureau of Census, National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Labor, National Science Foundation and Defense Logistics Agency. The National Defense University uses OTA reports --Holding the Edge1 The Defense Technolow Base: Introduction and Overview, and New Technology For 8ATO -as textbooks. Holdmg the Edf e has also been used extensively within DoD in delinerations regarding strategic planning o technology base programs and laboratory managem ~nt. OTA's reports on space transportation have been used extensively by NASA and the Air Force. An OTA staff paper on DOE weapons facilities modernization was widely distributed within DOD in the course of their internal review. Based on a review copy of OT A's forthcoming report Confused Minds. Burdened Families: Finding Help for People With Alzheimer's and Other Dementias, the Administration on Aging developed a research initiative on connecting ethnic minority people with dementia to health care and other services. OTA staff interacted extensively with the Agency for International Development (A.I.D.) on matters relating to the OTA study U.S. Universities and Development Assistance: Technical Support for Agriculture. Natural Resources. and Environment. Added support for OTA's assessment came from the Bureau of Science and Technology and AI.D.'s Board for International Food and Agriculture Development. OTA staff assisted the National Governor's Association in development of their assessment of agriculturally-related groundwater contamination With the cooperation and assistance of approximately 40 Federal agencies, OTA has collected information on organizational structure, establishment of roles, and allocation of resources to water quality within the Federal government for the on-going OTA assessment of Agricultural Approach to Reduce Agrichemical Contamination of Groundwater. Through a cooperative agreement between the governments of the Freely Associated States in Micronesia, the U.S. Corps of Engineers, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a "Pacific Island Network" has been established to link the islands together and with Federal information and assistance efforts. Designated agents have been created in Pohnpei, Kosrae, and the Northern Marianas as of July, 1989, and agents will be selected for the other major islands by 1990. Agents will serve as active extension agents ( covering aquaculture, marine resource management, protected areas) and program coordinators. Such actions were suggested in an option in OTA's assessment Integrated Renewable Resource Management for U.S. Insular Areas (1987). Findings from OTA's report Enhancing the Quality of U.S. Grain for International Trade are being used by the Federal Grain Inspection Service of U.S.D.A. to change standards and grades of grain and inspection procedures of the agency. The assessment is the major focus of an intra-agency task force m U.S.D.A that is charged with providing to the Secretary of Agriculture recommendations on actions that U.S.D.A. can take to enhance grain quality. The Agriculture Stabilization and Conservation Service is using the study's findings to reevaluate their premium and discount pricing program for all major grains and the agency's storage practices. The National Center for Health Services Research and Health Care Technology Assessment (NCHSR) used OTA's study, Medlars and Health Information Policy. as the basis of its evaluation of a bill requirin$ an agreement between the proposed new agency and NLM for indexing and making available on-line the literature on health services research and technology assessment. In developing recommendations for the use of pneumococcal vaccine, the Center for Disease Control's Immunization Practices Advisory Committee drew on OTA's update of the vaccine's cost effectiveness, Update of Federal Activities Regarding the Use of Pneumococcal Vaccine.
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-19 The National Academy of Sciences' Institute of Medicine is using information, including a number of charts, from OTA's report, The Quality of Medical Care: Information for Consumers, in its report on a similar subject. OTA was asked to testify two times before the Presidential Commission on the Human Immunodeficiency Virus Epidemic, once on the Costs of AIDS and the HIV Epidemic, and once on Laboratory Quality Control and Regulation. OTA is working closely with the National Science Foundation and other interested agencies in its study of high performance computing and networking for science. One senior NSF staff member is on part-time detail to the project, and OTA will be engaging in some joint workshop activities with an executive office coordinating group that operates through OSTP. The Federal Publishers Committee, an interagency group, used OTA's report, Informing the Nation, to set the framework for its recommendations on improving agencyGPO working relationships. OTA received analyses from a number of Executive Branch agencies for its work on municipal solid waste. These include the Department of Energy (Biofuels and Municipal Waste Technology Division), Department of Commerce (International Trade Administration, National Institute of Standards and Technology), and the Environmental Protection Administration. In working with EPA, there were numerous information exchanges, briefings and reviews. The National Academy of Sciences has formed a committee to examine the issue of constructing double bottoms in oil tankers in the aftermath of the Alaskan oil spill. NAS is using past OTA work on this subject as the basis to define the issues that need to be reviewed, and is maintaining continuing liaison with us on this subject. The OTA study on global warming relies extensively on the global data base collected by EPA The Texas State Board of Education used OTA's report, Power On!, as the basis for five elements of their action plan. The Washington State Office of Public Instruction's Educational Technology Reports to the Legislature draw extensively on OTA's work, as do plans and actions in California, Connecticut, Florida, and New York. The OTA special report, Safer Skies With TCAS, was used by the Federal Aviation Administration to structure its operational evaluation program for the early phase of TCAS implementation. The National Education Association's Special Task Force on Technology based their recommendations for teacher training and support on OTA's work. The NEA report and press release quoted OTA frequently, and NEA's goal of "a computer on every teacher's desk by 1991" is the direct result of.OTA's assessment, Power On!. IBM also cited findings from this report to justify their $25 million effort to assist in training new teachers to use technology. The Office of Motor Carriers in the Federal Highway Administration has used the report, Gearing Up for Safety. as an aid in structuring their human factors research. 6. Changes in OTA's Prior Plans for FY 1989 During Fiscal Year 1989, OTA essentially accomplished its goals, with approved modifications, negotiated reductions, and additions to meet the changing needs of Congress. These changes reflect the inherent uncertainty of research and the attendant need to make adjustments, and also the fact that the agency must operate with fewer resources.
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-20-The chart below shows the variations in actual obligations for the OTA divisions for FY 1989 from the planned obligations for FY 1989 provided on Schedule A in the FY 1990 budget justification. The chart on page 21 provides a summary by object class of projections and actual expenditures for FY 1989. 7. Changes in OTA's Prior Plans ($000) I 1989 1989 I x I (est.) actual I change _____ 1 ______ 1 __ !Division A I 4,088 I 3,973 I (2.81) I 1 ............... J ........ 1 .......... 1 ......... 1 JDivision B I 4,138 I 4,032 I (2.56)j 1 .. 1 .. J 1 ...... 1 jDivision C I 4,238 I 4,188 I (1.18)j 1 ......... 1 ........ 1 1 1 jDivision G I 5,473 I 5,698 I 4.11 I !~====----========== OTA's Goals for FY 1991 Over the past 15 years, OTA has provided Congress with hundreds of reports on emerging technologies, and with policy options for governing in a time of rapid technical change. These reports have addressed very discrete areas of scientific and technological change, and now provide the background necessary for OTA to help Congress find solutions to cross-cutting issues. How to reflect the needs of our rural communities in public policy is an issue in OTA's studies of both health and telecommunications. How best to protect the environmental commons is a concern reflected in OT A's studies that range from local issues, such as municipal solid waste, to global issues, such as climate change. OTA plans to emphasize, in FY 1990 and into the future, the task of integrating our studies to provide to Congress the most comprehensive view possible of increasingly complex, interrelated, global problems involving science and technology. OTA is proposing an FY 1991 budget that will permit the agency to hold the line against increased costs and undertake a small portion of our current backlog of requests, for we expect that demands for our assistance will grow. We will respond to much of that need with increased productivity, by careful design of the analyses, by merging of multiple requests into single studies, and by other mechanisms that will stretch our capabilities without significant erosion of the quality of the work. Without some budgetary relief, however, we will probably lose the last vestiges of our key flexibility use of outside contracts to facilitate specialized analytical needs. During FY 1991, OTA expects that it will be called upon by Senate and House committees for work on issues that run the full range of technology and policy. The influence of changing technology on cost containment, pollution control, national security, industrial competitiveness, employment, health, and constitutional guarantees such as privacy and property rights will intensify, and Congress will be forced to grapple with these issues. OTA will continue to be the common analytical resource to committees as they seek fuller understanding of emerging technology and the appropriate role of the Legislative branch. Priorities in Program Work OT A's agenda is determined by the explicit needs of congressional committees, so we cannot reasonably predict the new assessments that will be undertaken in a given year.
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-21 -Office of Technology Assessment Suamary By Object Class FY 89 I I FY 89 CHANGE CHANGE I .1 I ESTIMATE I ACTUAL I EST VS ACT I EST VS ACT I l-----------------1-----------------1-----------------I-----------------I I I I I I I DOLLARS I DOLLARS I % I DOLLARS I I CATEGORIES I ($000) I ($000) I I ($000) I --------------------------------------------1-----------------I----------------------------------1-----------------Breakdown by Object Class: 1 I I I I I 11 Personnel Compensation I 9,os5 I s,ss3 c2.22>I (202) 12 Personnel Benefits I 1,121 I 1,653 (4.2s> I (74) 13 Benefits to Former Personnel I 10 I 28 180. oo I 18 21 Travel I 315 I 312 co.95> I (3) 22 Transportation of Things I 81 I 18 <3. 10> I (3) 23 Rent, Coomunication and Utilities I 1,934 I 1,943 0.47 I 9 24 Printing and Reproduction I 549 I 536 c2.31>I (13) 25 Other Services I 3,42s I 3,508 2.33 I 80 26 Supplies and Materials I 258 I 302 11. 05 I 44 31 Equipment I 550 I 648 11.82 I 98 32 Land and Structures I I o. oo I 0 42 Insurance Claims and Indenmities I I 0. 00 I 0 I I I I I I Total I 11,931 I 11,891 co.26>1 (46) I I I _________________ 1 _______ 1 ______________ 1 ______
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22 In response to the Appropriations Committees' request, however, OTA has prepared an illustrative Jist of subjects that are representative of the kinds of assessments that we may be asked tu undertake. Such an exercise, using a wide variety of information sources, helps sharpen the: discussions between OTA staff and congressional committees. It also reflects one of the charges Congress assigned to OTA: foresight about emerging technology. The most recent list (see below) was derived from a much larger group of subjects that have come to Ol'A's attention via its own work, requests and inquiries that have already been received fro'11 committees, the technical literature, interactions with Members and staff of Congress, aLd from peers in the executive branch and outside government. OTA can undertake only a limited number of assessments each year, so this list should be viewed only as representative. Because OTA works hard to be responsive to changing Congressional needs, work actually begun in a given year is often significantly different from OTA's prospective list, but new work usually does contain some of the identified issues. (Brief descriptions of the candidate studies are provided in the sections on divisions' priorities on pages 36, 51, 65.) Candidate Areas for New Assessments in Fiscal Years 1990 and 1991 The topics given in this list have been identified by congressional committees, OTA, and its advisers as typical technical issues that the Congress will face over the next several years. Note: 1) This list is not given in order of priority; and 2) the actual number of issues we can undertake as full assessments is no more than 1 in 3 or 4 of those listed. Energy and Materials Energy Efficiency Nuclear Power Plant Decommissioning and Life Extension Recycling of Materials Social Costs of Energy Consumption Energy Storage Technologies Materials for the Information Age Industry. Technology. and Employment Defining the Technology Base for a Developed Economy Trade with Eastern Europe Foreign Investment in the United States Environmental Pressures and Industrial Competitiveness: Opportunities for U.S. Industry Technology Transfer Arresting the Slide: Retaining and Regaining Competitive Advantage in Computer Hardware and Software International Security and Commerce New Technology and Conventional Force Reductions The Future of U.S. Defense Industries The Future of Strategic Forces The Diffusion of Military Technology Destructive Radio Pulse Technology The Internationalization of Space Activities
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Biological Applications Biomedicine of Addiction -23 -Quality Assurance of Long Term Cai e of Elderly Citizens Biological Technologies to Support Humans in Space Risk Assessment and Management for Non-cancer Environmental Toxins Keeping Older People in the Workplace Food and Renewable Resources Agricultural Alternatives to Illegal Drug-crop Production Agricultural Technology Transfer: U.S. Participation in the Global Agricultural Research System Improving Productivity of Degraded Resources Advances in Integrated Pest Management The Role of Renewable Resource Management in Disaster Mitigation The Growing Demand for Amenity Resources: Managing Renewable Resources for Tourism Technology for a Diverse Agriculture Health Drug Abuse Prevention and Treatment --Reducing the Demand for Illegal Drugs Worldwide Transmission of Viruses and Tropical Diseases Cancer Center Clinical Trials and the Medicare Program Intrauterine Surgical Treatment of Fetal Abnormalities: Technology, Cost, and Implications for Medicaid Health Care and the Inner City Communication and Information Technologies Copyright and Patent Protection of Computer Software and Databases Technical Standards for Telecommunications and Computers International Telecommunications Mission-Critical Computer Software for the Federal Government Radio Frequency Spectrum Management Future Directions in Advanced Computers Oceans and Environment Impacts of Global Warming Industrial, Non-Hazardous Waste Indoor Air Pollution Non-Point Source Pollution Shoreline and Coastal Land Use Management Aquaculture Science, Education, and Transportation Alternatives to Standardized Tests Delivering Literacy via Technology The National Airspace System Plan Revisited Education: Research Into Practice Conflicts of Interest in the Research Community Evaluation of Vocational Education Standards
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24 -8.A. Agency Workload and Product Data Projects Requested or Mandated and Ap,roved During the Fiscal Year !projects requested by conmittees (1) I !projects approved by TAB I !projects undertaken as special responses I or incorporated in ongoing work I I FY1989 I FY1990 actual I (est.) I I 36 I I 15 I I I 16 I I 35 12 12 FY1991 (est.) 38 18 14 !projects delayed to another fiscal year I 5 I 11 6 1==================================================1=========1=========1=========1 I I I I I I legislative mandates enacted in fiscal year I o I I I I I I I I I legislative mandates active in fiscal year I 5 I 5 I 5 I I I I I I 1==================================================1=========1=========1=========1 (1) These nunbers are representative of assessments formally requested in writing. They do not represent the total nLlllber of request letters for an assessment (which may come from several different conmittees) and do not include the significant nunber of requests that are refused or referred elsewhere before reaching the formal request stage. (2) OTA's appropriations language states, "That no part of this appropriation shall be available for assessments or activities not initiated and approved in accordance with section 3Cd) of Public Law 92." The previously mandated studies will be continued. OTA will continue to discourage new mandates with the assistance of the Technology Assessment Board and the Appropriations Conmittees.
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-25 -8.B. Agency ijorkload and Product Data Projects Ongoing, Started, or C~leted During the Fiscal Year 1987 1988 I 1989 I 1990 I 1991 I actual I actual I actual I (est.) I (est.) I !Projects in Process Begiming of Fiscal Year (1)1 34 I 40 I 39 I 44 I 31 I llllllI !Projects Approved by TAB During the Fiscal Year I 15 I 22 I 15 I 12 I 18 I llllllI !Reports Published During the Fiscal Year (2) I 17 I 31 I (3) 12 I 25 I 16 I 1==================================================1=========1=========1========1========1========1 !Projects in Process End of Fiscal Year I 40 I 39 I 44 I 31 I 33 I ================================================================================================= (1) Projects in Process counts all TABapproved activities. A project may produce more than one assessment report, or may produce no reports at all, therefore nuibers are not additive. Projects in press or under TAB review are counted. (2) Reports includes full assessment reports and special reports, but not technical memoranda, background papers, or staff papers. (3) Seven reports were also published between 10/1/89 and 11/30/89.
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26 -8.C. Agency Workload and Product Data Type and Nl.lllber of Products Coq,leted During the Fiscal Year IFY 1989 IFY 1989 IFY 1990 IX changelFY 1991 IX change I Products I (est.) I actual I (est.) I 89 I (est.) I 90 I I I I I I I !Reports (1) I 22 I (2) 12 I 25 I 108 I 16 I (36) I I I I I I I !Other Publications (3) I 15 I 21 I 15 I (29) I 20 I 33 I I I I I I I !Testimony I 50 I 36 I 40 I 11 I 40 I 0 llllllI !Staff Papers I 25 I 17 I 20 I 18 I 25 I 25 1=========================1========1========1========1========1========1======== I Total Products I 112 I 77 I 100 I 30 I 101 I =============================================================================== (1) Reports includes full assessment reports and special reports. (2) This figure does not include 11 additional reports originally projected for delivery in FY 089 but delayed for a variety of reasons. Seven of these reports were published between 10/1/89 and 11/30/89. (3) Other Publications includes report supplements, technical memoranda, background papers, case studies, workshop proceedings, and administrative doc1.111ents.
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Schedule E -27 -9. DIRECT AND INDIRECT EMPLOYEES OF THE AGENCY Office of Technology Assessment Summary Direct and Indirect Employees 1----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I I Number of Employees I Dollars I Classification I FY1989 FY1990E FY1991E I FY1989 FY1990E FY1991E l---------------------------------------1----------I---------I---------I---------I---------I--------I Staff Allocation I I I I I I I (permanent positions) I 143 I 143 I 143 I I I ---------------------------------------1----------I---------I---------I---------I----------------1 I I I I 11.1 Full-Time Permanent I I I I I Full-Time Permanent I 140 I 140 I 140 I 7,066 I 7,460 8,111 Part-Time Permanent I 5 I 5 I 5 I 130 I 135 143 I I I I I 11. 3 Other Than Full-Time Permanent I I I I I Temporary I 57 I 61 I 61 I 1,680 I 2,085 2,203 Intermittent/Consultants I 42 I 45 I 45 I 7 I 11 11 I I I I I 25. 0 Other Services ( Contracts I I I I I for on-site personal services) 1/ I 30 I 28 I 28 I 802 I 796 849 ---------------------------------------1----------I---------I---------I---------I-----------------1/ Includes individuals, whose services are obtained under contract with the individual or an organization, performing on-site services (in agency workspace) for six months or more during a twelve month period.
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-28 -Schedule F Office of Technology Assessment I Object Class 25.0 Service Contracts (Indirect Employment) 1-------------------------------------------------------------------------------I I Number of Contracts I Dollars jType of service !provided under contract l--------------------------1--------------------------I 1989 l1990Est.l1991Est.l 1989 l1990Est. l1991Est. l-------------------------1--------1--------------------------------------1 I I I I I IIn House I I !Panel/Work Group I I !support Services I I !NFC Services I I !Research Contracts I I I 12 I I I I I I 119 I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I o I I I I I I 304 I I I I I !Purchase Orders I 508 I I I I 12 815 1 1 266 531 12 196 203 852 414 461 1 606 593 1 0 30 327 1,886 1,576 556 406 424 I I I I 214 482 635 0 2,480 447 l===---=--==--=--=-=--=--1=-=-=I~-==-=-==-= ==== ===l==I I TOTAL* I 1,604 I 1,626 1,749 3,508 3,287 I 4,258 I This includes the total number of contracts and the total dollars under object class 25.0
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Schedule Al -29 -10. DIVISION A: ENERGY, MATERIALS, AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY 1. SCHEDULES Al, Bl, AND Cl FOR THE DIVISION Office of Technology Assessment Energy, Materials, and International Security Division Sumnary By Object Class I FY 89 FY 90 FY 91 I I ACTUAL I ESTIMATE I ESTIMATE I NET CHANGE 90/911 l-----------------1-----------------1-----------------I-----------------I I I I I I I DOLLARS I DOLLARS I DOLLARS I DOLLARS I j CATEGORIES I ($000) j ($000) j ($000) I ($000) I 1----------------------------------------------------------------------------1-----------------1-----------------I I Breakdown by Object Class: I I I I I I I I 11 Personnel Compensation 2,347 2,597 I 2,836 I 239 I I 12 Personnel Benefits 435 485 I 534 I 49 I I 13 Benefits to Former Personnel 1 7 I 7 I O I I 21 Travel 77 80 I 84 I 4 I I 22 Transportation of Things 6 5 I 5 I O I I 23 Rent, Conmunication and Utilities 8 6 I 6 I O I I 24 Printing and Reproduction 179 196 I 210 I 14 I I 25 Other Services 825 763 I 1,052 I 289 I I 26 Supplies and Materials 28 41 I 43 I 2 I I 31 Equipment 67 95 j 99 I 4 I I 32 Land and Structures O O I O I O I I 42 Insurance Claims and Indemnities O j O I O I O I I I I I I I I I I I I Total 3,973 I 4,275 I 4,876 I 601 I I I I I I I __________________ l _____ l _____ l _____ I
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Schedule Bl 30 -Office of Technology Assessment Energy, Materials, and International Security Division Analysis of Change to Budget Base By Object Class I I I I PROGRAM TYPE CHANGES I I l-------------1-------------1-------------I I I I I EQUIPMENT' I I !MANDATORY PAYI I I I ALTERATIONS, I I I AND RELATED I PRICE LEVELi I I MAINTENANCE, I TOTAL I I COSTS I CHANGES I LEGISLATION I WORKLOAD I REPAIRS' ETC. I CHANGES I I l-------------l-------------l-------------l-------------1-------------1-------------I I I DOLLARS I DOLLARS I DOLLARS I DOLLARS I DOLLARS I DOLLARS I j CATEGORIES j ($000) j ($000) j ($000) j ($000) j ($000) j ($000) j -----------------------------------------1-------------------------1--------------------------------------------------Breakdown By Object Class: I I I 11 Personnel Compensation 239 I 12 Personnel Benefits 49 I 13 Benefits to Former Personnel O I 21 Travel 4 I 22 Transportation of Things O I 23 Rent, Coamunications and Utilities O I 24 Printing and Reproduction 14 I 25 Other Services 64 I 225 26 Supplies and Materials 2 I 31 Equipment 4 I 32 Land and Structures I 42 Insurance Claims and Indemnities I I I Total 288 88 I O 225 I 0 ----------------------_____ j ______ ------------239 49 0 4 0 0 14 -289 z I 4 I a I a I I I 601 I I I ...
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I. -31 -Schedule Cl Office of Technology Assessment Energy, Materials, and International Security Division Detailed Analysis of Changes Appropriation, 1990 Minus: Drug Initiative P.L. 101-164 Minus: G-R-H Sequestration P.L. 99-177 Budget Base, 1990 Adjustments to Base A. Mandatory Pay and Related Costs 1. Merit increases and promotions averaging 3.5%. 2. Corresponding 3.5% increase of benefits averaging 18%. 3. Miscellaneous benefit cost increases. 4. Annualization of FY '90 cost-of-iiving adjustment. 5. Impact of congressional pay raise including benefits. 6. Estimated FY '91 cost-of-Living adjustment. B. Price Level Changes 1. Travel related inflation of 5.0% 2. Printing and supplies inflation of 7%. 3. Other services inflation. 4. Supplies and materials inflation of 4.6%. 5. Equipment inflation of 4.6%. C. Program Type Changes 1. Legislation 2. Workload a. Restoration of contracting services. 3. Equipment, Alterations, Maintenance, Repairs, Etc. II. Net Increase/Decrease Requested III. Total Appropriation Request, 1991 Calculation of Base l------------------------------1 I Amount I Staff I ( $000) 1---------1--------------------1 36 I 4,311 I I c21i I I c15i I 36 I 4,215 1---1------1 1991 Request 1---------1--------------------1 I Amount I Staff I ($000) 1---------1--------------------0 36 1 288 I 91 I 11 I 11 I 26 I 103 I 40 I I 88 I 4 14 64 2 4 225 0 225 0 601 4,876
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-32 -10,2. EXPLANATION OF CHANGES SHOWN ON SCHEDULE c 1 FOR DIVISION A Office of Technology Assessment Energy, Materials, and International Secirity Division 1------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I EXPLANATION OF CHANGES SHOWN ON SCHE1ULE C 1----------------------------~IA, MANDATORY PAY AND RELATED COSTS I Staff I Amount ($000) l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I 1. Merit increases and promotions averaging 3.5% agency-wide. I I 91 l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I 2. Corresponding 3.5% increase in benefits which average 18% agency-I I I wide associated with merit increases and promotions. I I 17 l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I 3. Miscellaneous cost increases including the annualization of I I I FY '90 health increases plus planned FY '90 increases. I I 11 l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I 4. Annualization of cost-of-living adjustment effective January 1990. I I 26 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I 5. Impact of P.L. 101-194 on congressional pay and corresponding I I I benefits. I I 103 l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I 6. Fifty percent of FY '91 cost-of-living adjustment effective January! I I 1991 per 0MB memorandum. I I 40 l===--------====-==--=-------=l=--=I===--== IB, PRICE LEVEL CHANGES I Staff I Amount ($000) l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I 1. Travel related inflation rates of 5.0% applied to FY '90 I I I base due to expected rise in plane fares and car rental costs. I I 4 l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I 2. Printing and supplies inflation rate of 7% (according to GPO I I I Circular Letter No. 307 (dated April 28, 1989) applied to I I I FY 90 base. I I 14 l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I 3. Other services inflation rate of 4.6% applied to FY '90 base except! I I for research contracts, for which 10% inflation rate was applied. I I 64 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I 4. Supplies and materials inflation rate of 4.6% applied to FY '90 I I I base. I I 2 l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I 5. Equipment (including furniture, permanent books, ADP equipment) I I I inflation rate of 4.6% applied to FY '90 base. I I 4 l==--==---=--~===---==~===--=======lc, PROGRAM TYPE CHANGES I Staff I Amount ($000) 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I 1. Legislation I I 0 l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I 2. Workload I I 1................................................ ....... .. -I I I 2a. Restoration of contracting dollars to provide for additional I I I contracts, increased contract competition, and expanded work I I I statements across-the-board. I I 225 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I 3. Equipment, Alterations, Maintenance, Repairs, Etc. I I 0 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------
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33 -10.3. Role of the Energy, Materials. and International Security Division The Energy, Materials, and International Security Division comprises three Programs: Energy and Materials; Industry, Technology, and Employment; and International Security and Commerce. The Energy and Materials Program is responsible for assisting the Congress in understanding the technological possibilities for developing our energy and materials resources and the consequences of these developments for society. In this way, the Program can help the Congress ensure rational resource development such that economic growth is maintained, undesirable side effects are kept to a mirumum, and the resource base is sustained for future generations. The Program covers those technologies that concern the extraction, delivery, and use of energy and materials. Although primarily directed at domestic resources, the Program also is concerned with world markets and policies, including imports and exports of energy and materials. The Industry. Technology, and Emv.loyment Program examines how technology affects the ability of U.S. industry to contribute to a healthy national economy. Its responsibilities include consideration of the competitiveness of U.S. industries in international markets, trade and economic development issues, the number and nature of employment opportunities, needs for worker education, training and retraining, and ways to ease adjustment in structural economic transitions. A Program with a specific employment focus is new at OTA (the Pro~ram was established in 1983), although most assessments have considered employment impacts, and employment and training issues have been of central importance in several studies. ITE's employment concerns center on the quantity, nature, and quality of jobs, the nature of and changes in job skills, and training and retraining across the work force. The International Security and Commerce Program deals with national security, space technology, international relations generally, and international technology transfers. The Program's work in national security involves determination of what is technologically possible followed by an assessment of the likely impacts of these technological considerations on national security, which includes international stability, diplomacy, alliance relations, and arms control, as well as deterrence and defense. The work on space technolo~ involves a range of issues, such as space transportation, international cooperat10n and competition in civilian space activities, and newsgathering from space, in which technological progress, civilian exploration, commercial uses of space, and national security must be reconciled. ISC's work in technology transfer combines several perspectives: the national security and foreign policy considerations that lie behind export controls, a concern for the health and comf etit1veness of U.S. industry in international markets; and a concern for the objective o managing technology transfer in such a way as to contribute to favorable international economic development. 10.4. Accomplishments of the Energy, Materials. and International Security Division In FY 1989, the Energy, Materials, and International Security Division published 3 assessment reports: Holding the Edge: Maintaining the Defense Technology Base Electric Power Wheeling and Dealing: Technological Considerations for Increasing Competition Oil Production Technologies and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge The Division also produced 1 special report and 5 background papers: Round Trip to Orbit: Alternatives for Human Spaceflight (Special Report) Assessing Contractor Use in Superfund Big Dumb Boosters: A Low Cost Transportation Option?
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34 Technology Transfer to the United States: The MIT-Japan Science and Technology Program Biological Effects of Power Frequency Electric and Magnetic Fields Statistical Needs for a Changing U.S. Economy In addition, the Division testified 12 times and prepared 3 staff papers. Listed below are several examples of direct legislative use of the Division's work: Energy and Materials 1. In Senator Metzenbaum's floor statement introducing S. 984, a bill amending the Motor Information and Cost Savings Act, he stated that "studies by the Department of Energy and the Office of Technology Assessment determined that a CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy standard) of 33 to 35 miles per gallon by 1995 would be P.ractical and cost-effective and doesn't require a shift in size mix or performance." The bill itself states that, "analyses by the Department of Energy and the Office of Technology Assessment indicate that known, cost-effective technologies already in use in automobiles today could, if implemented to a greater extent in the new car fleet, provide substantial improvement in new car fuel economy without requiring shifts in the size mix, performance, or luxury equipment of new cars." This work, an interim product of OT A's ongoing assessment of Technological Risks and Opportunities for Future U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, was also cited in S. 1224, the Motor Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Act of 1989. Throughout the year, OTA staff briefed Senate and House members and staff on alternative fuels and automotive fuel economy and other energy technology issues being addressed in the assessment and testified five times on these subjects in the last year. Several of OTA options have provided middle ground in the debate over CAFE standards. 2. Senator Bingaman used the OTA report, Statistical Needs for a Changing U.S. Economy. as part of his rationale in his floor statement introducing S. 1742 Reauthorizing the Paperwork Reduction Act. 3. The findings of OTA's report, The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR): The Technology and the Alaskan Oil Context, were referred to frequently in the House and Senate Committee_ debates over proposed legislation to develop the ANWR's oil resources (H.R. 49, S. 406, S. 684, and H.R. 1600) and to designate the ANWR a wilderness area precluding such development (H.R. 39 and S. 39) 4. OTA's report, Electric Power Wheeling and Dealing: Technological Considerations for Increasing Competition, is cited frequently in ongoing legislative discussions and hearings in the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Energy and Power affecting the regulation of electric utilities such as proposals to amend the Public Utility Holding Company Act, the Public Utilities Regulatory Policy Act, and the Federal Power Act. 5. OTA's reports, New Electric Power Technologies: Problems and Prospects for the 1990s, Nuclear Power in an Age of Uncertainty, and Starpower: The U.S. and International Quest for Fusion Energy, continue to be used widely by energy R&D authorizing committees as a reference source. In particular, there were referred to frequently in the House Committee on Science and Technology's Subcommittee on Energy Research and Development's authorization hearing on the DOE R&D budget. 6. S. 1578, introduced by Senator Fowler, calls for a national center for preservation technology, an option suggested in OTA's Technologies for Prehistoric and Historic
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35 -Preservation. The 1990 appropriations bill for the Interior Department included a provision directing fund be spent by the National Park Service to encourage technology transfer to preservation efforts. Industzy, Technology, and Emplo_yment 1. OTA's assessment, Commercializing High Temperature Superconductivity. was one of two major policy studies cited by the House Science, Space and Technology Committee in its report (House Report 100-900) on the McCurdy-Ritter bill (Public Law 100-697, the National Superconductivity and Competitiveness Act of 1988, which became law on November 19, 1988). This act directs OSTP, in conjunction with the National Critical Materials Council, to establish a 5-year national action plan on superconductivity R&D. In reporting its bill to the full House, the committee noted OTA's analysis indicating that while U.S. government had moved aggressively to fund basic research on superconductivity, Japan had been more aggressive in establishing a national program, as well as OTA's findings concerning the relative commitments of U.S. and Ja?anese firms to commercialization. These latter findings were also cited durmg the House floor debate on the bill. Subsequently, this report was extensively used by OSTP in formulating their 5-year action plan, as mandated in the McCurdy-Ritter bill. OSTP also conferred a number of times with ITE staff. Indeed, the action plan, the report of the Committee to Advise the President on High Temperature Su?erconductivity (popularly known as the Wise Men's report), and the creation of the Nat10nal Commission on Superconductivity were all influenced by the OTA report, in particular through their common emphasis on taking a long-term view, designing stability into the research and development program~ working closely with industry, and supporting R&D consortia. 2. In another instance of OTA's impact on policy making and legislative drafting in the Executive Branch, the Department of Commerce recently confirmed the point made strongly in OTA's Special Report, Trade in Services: Exports and Foreign Revenues, that the positive contribution of services trade to our balance of payments has been greatly underestimated. In both Trade in Services and International Competition in Services, OTA made a strong case for a new benchmark survey of the kind recently completed. OTA also presented a strong technical rationale for the survey in coordination meetings with the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (which was responsible for the Federal task force on services trade data), and with the Bureau of Economic Affairs of the Department of Commerce. 3. The FY90 Conference report on EPA appropriations eliminated $8.2 million worth of contracting and consultant services from the President's requested EPA budget. The conferees' concern about the "Agency's impulse to turn to contractors and consultants as a first resort on [certain tasks] which should be the responsibilities of a competent and professional Federal work force" stems from OTA's background paper Assessing Contractor Use in Superfund, highlighted by Senator Pryor in hearings in 1989. 4. Senator Heinz read the entire text of OTA's study, Paying the Bill: Manufacturing and America's Trade Deficit, into the Congressional Record. In his speech on the floor, Sen. Heinz described that report as "an important testament to some of the more intractable problems [in manufacturing and trade] we face", and as "making reality crystal clear." The senator also cited the report, Commercializing High Temperature Superconductivity. in his remarks on the problems the U.S. faces in moving from scientific concept to commercial product.
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-36-International Security and Commerce 1. ISC's ongoing assessment of Space Transportation Technologies has assisted work in the Hou.5e Committee on Science, Space, and Technology on a bill (H.R. 2674) to "encourag\! the development .... of a competitive U.S. space transportation industry." It has also contrilJuted to deliberations within the Subcommittee on Space Science and Applications concerning future government investment in space transportation. 2. OTA testified before the Subcommittee on Defense Industry and Technology of the Senate Committee on Armed Services for their deliberations on the FY89 and FY90 defense authorization bills. 3. OTA testified before both Senate Foreign Relations and House Foreign Affairs (Subcommittee on Arms Control, International Security, and Science) on seismic verification of nuclear testing treaties. 4. ISC delivered a staff paper reviewing the DOE "2010" report to the Senate Committee on Armed Services as input to its deliberations on cleaning up and modernizing the nuclear weapons construction sites. 10.5. Changes in Prior Plans for FY 1989 for the Energy, Materials, and International Security Division During Fiscal Year 1989, the Energy, Materials, and International Security Division essentially accomrlished its goals, with approved modifications and additions to meet the changing needs o Congress. These changes reflect the inherent uncertainty of research and the attendant need to be able to make adjustments. (Please see the chart on page 20 for the breakdown of the differences in estimated and actual Division spending for FY 1989.) 10.6. FY 1990 and FY 1991 Priorities for the Energy. Materials, and International Security Division A Division's work is determined by the expressed needs of Congressional Committees, so we cannot safely predict an agenda, but an illustrative list of subjects that are representative of the kinds of new assessments that we may be asked to undertake can be prepared. Such an exercise, using a wide variety of information sources, helps sharpen the discussions between OTA staff and Congressional Committees. It also reflects one of the charges Congress assigned to OTA: foresight about emerging technology. Of course each Division can undertake only a few new assessments each year, so this list should be viewed only as representative of potential subjects for the assessments that the Energy, Materials, and International Security Division may be asked to undertake in Fiscal Years 1990 and 1991. Because OTA works hard to be responsive to changing Congressional needs, new work is often significantly different from OTA's prospective list, but it usually does contain some of the identified issues. Energy and Materials Energy Efficiency Environmental policy and/or economic conditions aTe increasingly providing incentives for pursuing or mandating energy efficiency and conservation in many economic
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37 sectors of the U.S. economy. The study would assess the gains that we could expect to achieve at that point, given current technologies and expectations for future improvements. The assessment would determine the status of U.S. energy efficiency in all economic sectors, as well as the outlook for our R&D efforts and the direction that they are taking under current federal policies. Nuclear Power Plant Decommissioning and Life Extension Over 25% of all U.S. nuclear {'Ower plants will reach the end of their design lives during the next 15 years. Decisions will have to be made, starting relatively soon, on whether to decommission them or make the necessary investments to extend their lifetimes. In some cases the decision will be easy, especially when the plant has been operating poorly or has been shut down for major safety inadequacies. Some plants, however, have been great economic assets, and there will be strong incentives to keep them operatin~. This study will examine the technologies involved in decommissiomng and life extension; evaluate the implications for safety, costs, and electric power generation; and define the public policy decisions that will have to be made. Recycling of Materials Interest in recycling has been renewed by the problems of waste disposal (including limited landfill capacity and intensifying waste toxicity) and increasing global energy use and pollution. However, the role of materials recycling in combatin~ these problems in unclear. Can the technologies and institutions keep pace with the more highly engineered materials being used? For example, most polymer matrix composites in use today have cured thermosetting matrices that have little scrap value. This study would examine the technologies for recycling metals, glass, plastics, and advanced materials. Social Costs of Energy Consumption A common complaint of energy policymakers is that they are forced to make policy choices about energy systems without a clear understanding of the comparative social costs of alternative systems. Previous attempts at evaluating comparative social costs focused primarily on human health impacts, especially injuries, illnesses, and fatalities. Other costs, generally left out of these analyses, include an array of ecosystem effects, employment impacts, land use impacts, aesthetic changes, and others. Also, costs can include distributive impacts, e.g. interand intra-regional shifts in jobs, changes in income distribution, and so forth. In this study, OTA would examme and review past attempts at establishing such methods and create a framework under which a credible method appropriate to U.S. policymaking could be constructed. Energy Storage Technologies Electricity, unlike other fuels, cannot easily be stored. It must be produced on demand, and fluctuations in demand require electric utilities to build and operate generating capacity to meet peak demand. This peak capacity, although rarely used, is quite expensive. This assessment would examine energy storage technologies, their status and future prospects, and their potential impacts on industry structure. Materials for the Information Age This assessment will examine opportunities for the use of new electronic and optical materials and processing technologies which are expected to become critical to the economy and the national defense in the future; it will analyze the technical and economic barriers to the realization of these opportunities; and it will examine trade offs in funding these different areas. Factors which are likely to affect the international competitiveness of US firms in these fields will be considered, and special attention will be given to the problem of transferring technology from the military to civilian spheres and from the national labs to the commercial sector.
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38 Industry, Technology and Employment Defining the Technology Base for a Developed Economy The United States is falling behind iu; principal economic competitor, Japan, in both process and product technologies; a~ the same time, European nations have been attempting to rebuild their technolo~cal capabilities. We need to come to grips with a fundamental question: what technol 1gies will be critical for supporting a competitive array of industrial sectors in the future? This assessment would compare systems for generating industrial technology in th~~ triad nations, including public and private decisionmaking processes and spending levels ( time horizons, mechanisms for setting priorities) and the activities of public and private performers of R&D ( companies large and small, national laboratories, universities). It would also compare patterns of technology diffusion and use. Building on past assessments of competitiveness, OT A's analysis would concentrate on the R&D and product/process development upstream of the marketplace. Trade With Eastern Europe The countries of the Warsaw striving to revitalize their economies with market economics and decreased military expenditure claim they need trade and technology from the West. U.S. policymakers fear that an infusion of aid and investment would be squandered unless market mechanisms that can efficiently use them are first installed. National security interests prevail in the discussion of technology transfer. The study would include an analysis of trade and investment in Eastern Europe, outlining industries and technologies that are suitable and unsuitable for trade, and would appraise the implications for U.S. competitiveness of trade or non-trade in Eastern Europe. Eastern European technological strensths would also be assessed. Strategies for the development of trade and investment m Eastern Europe would be evaluated. Foreign Investment in the United States Foreign investment in the United States is now higher than U.S. investment abroad, for the first time since World War I. It does create some jobs, but it is probably a modest number. If Americans increasingly make their living by selling their labor without collecting a return on capital, it may become harder to raise our standard of living. Also, it is not clear whether foreign investment will be a rich source of new technology. This assessment would explore the current experience in the U.S. with foreign ownership, placing particular emphasis on technology transfers, employment effects, flows of returns on capital, and effects on the trade balance. It would also examine the how other nations --particularly Japan and European Community countries --have encouraged and are encouraging technology transfers by foreign investors. Environmental Pressures and.Industrial Competitiveness: Opportunities for U.S. Industry American industry--already confronting major competitive challenges--is being newly stressed from heightened public environmental concerns and their regulatory consequences. But more demands for environmental benefits, both here and abroad, also create opportunities for American industry. Environmental and health concerns and waste management problems open up opportunities for manufacturing and marketing new, environmentally benign, low waste, or "green" industrial and consumer products. This study will focus on emerging environmental opportunities for American mdustry and the likely competition from foreign industries. The study will address industry and trade issues (e.g. how U.S. industry is responding to the new pressures); technical and social issues ( e.g. to what extent new, environmentally sound process and product development is constrained by available technology and skills; and public policy issues (e.g. whether new Federal policies could help develop new markets and new business opportunities for U.S. companies).
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39 -Technology Transfer The U.S. has lost its technological lead in some important fields, and is losing its lead in others. Because technology lies at the heart of future prosperity, this widespread loss of leadership is a serious problem. There are two sides to addres:;ing this issue, and most attention has been paid to the creation of new technology. .:-Iowever, the transfer of technology to the place where it is needed represents an equally important opportunity. This assessment will evaluate efforts in this area, especially efforts to improve the inward flow of technology to the U.S. from abroad. The assessment would also examine practices abroad and the practices of foreign-owned and run corporations m the U.S. Drawing on cases of successful technology transfer, the assessment would suggest improved or even model practices, and would develop options for government actions that could be supportive. Arresting the Slide: Retaining and Regaining Competitive Advantage in Computer Hardware and Software There is only one indisputably critical set of industrial activities and technologies: computer hardware and software. Computers run factories and defense systems, help airplanes fly and physicians diagnose diseases. And complex calculations that can only be performed on computers help engineers to design factories, microchips and automobiles, and scientists to conduct experiments, analyze data, and build new theories. At present, the United States retains a substantial though shrinking lead over its international rivals in both the hardware and software of computing systems. This assessment will explore areas of current and future U.S. strength and weakness in the full range of computing technologies (including human resources), identify the applications that will be most important for future competitiveness, and analyze policy options for protecting and extending the U.S. position in this set of technologies and industries. International Security and Commerce New Technology and Conventional Force Reductions Maintaining NATO cohesion while making the transition to lower force levels will require the application of new operational ideas, as well as new military technologies. This assessment would examine: technology for monitoring forces both for verification of agreed reductions and for building confidence that an attack is not imminent; new technologies for armored combat vehicles ( e.g. tanks) and technologies for countering them; "defensive defense" and other novel approaches to NATO defense; the potential role of technology in restructuring NATO forces at much lower overall levels. It would examine the interaction of relevant military technologies, force restructuring, and negotiated force reductions, and suggest and analyze options for technical development and force restructuring. The Future of U.S. Defense Industries The nation faces a fundamental decision: what does it want the future of the defense industry to be? Should we let the market take its toll on these companies, or should we protect design and manufacturing facilities and staffs as national assets? Neither course is a simple one. Should the government be actively involved in "converting" defense capacity to the manufacture of consumer goods? How will the future of defense industries affect the engineering professions? Congress is pulling strongly in a number of contradictory directions, trying to maintain a domestic capacity for all defense needs, control costs, keep specific projects alive for constituents, and tightly rein in abuses. This assessment would examine these problems in detail and analyze options for dealing with them.
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-40-The Future of Strategic Forces This assessment would provide an across-the-board examination o. U.S. strategic forces and their :potential evolution, taking into account new techri.ologies and possible arms control regimes. It would explore how force structures and arms control proposals might be developed in tandem. Of particular interest are: the role of mobility in strategic forces; cruise missile technology; the future se -:urity of submarine based nuclear forces; the practical application (if any) of technolog.1 flowing from the SDI pro~am; novel delivery systems (including boost-glide vehicles and space-based weapons); and non-nuclear warheads. The assessment would exami.1e potential future arms control measures including both force limitations and testing ba!J.S, and the consequences of drastic reductions in weapons-grade fissionable material. The Diffusion of Military Technology Advanced military equipment and technology--once the exclusive preserve of a few advanced states--has recently displayed an alarming propensity to diffuse worldwide. Several of our European Allies have traditionally rehed on exports to support their arms manufacturers, and as defense spending contracts, they are becoming more aggressive salesmen. U.S. companies are looking increasingly to lucrative export sales, as are other industrial powers. But increasingly the Third World is developing its own modem weapons, including the most deadly and destabilizing kinds: nuclear explosives, poison ~asses, and ballistic missiles. And many--such as China, Indonesia, and Brazilare begmning to see arms exports as a source of foreign sales. At a time when the U.S. and U.S.S.R. are seemingly moving toward defusing their cold war confrontation, the rest of the world shows the potential for becoming much less stable. This assessment would examine these trends and suggest and analyze possible policy approaches for the U.S. Destructive Radio Pulse Technology In recent years, the popular press has carried articles alleging and decrying a "Zap Gap" between Soviet and U.S. progress in technolow for generating powerful radio pulses to upset or damage electronic equipment or mcapacitate personnel. This assessment would analyze the real problem, i.e., whether and how to protect U.S. military and civil equipment from powerful radio pulses that could be generated by weapons that could be built based on exotic or commonplace technology. The Internationalization of Space Activities Recently, Western Europe and Japan have sharply increased their capabilities in space and are establishing ambitious plans for the next century. The newly industrializing countries of Brazil, China, and India have made impressive strides in developing their own capabilities. These events have created a wider market for U.S. space goods and services, but also present a competitive challenge to U.S. industry. This assessment would address several specific topics: Japan in space; future international collaboration in space; Europe's role in military space; the private sector in space; and Soviet entry into commercial space activities.
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-41 -10.7. Workload Data: Energy, Materials, and International Security Division I 19a9 1990 1991 I actual I (est.) I (est.) I !Projects in Process Beginning of Fiscal Year (1)1 9 I 14 I 10 I llllI !Projects Approved by TAB During the Fiscal Year I 7 I 4 I 6 I llllI I Reports Published During the Fiscal Year (2) I 4 I 8 I 5 I 1==================================================1========1========1========1 !Projects in Process End of Fiscal Year I 14 I 10 I 11 I ============================================================================= (1) Projects in Process counts all TABapproved activities. A project may produce more than one assessment report, or may produce no reports at all, therefore numbers are not additive. Projects in press or under TAB review are counted. (2) Reports includes full assessment reports and special reports, but not technical memoranda, background papers, or staff papers.
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Schedule El -42 -10.8. STAFFING OF THE DIVISION Office of Technology Assessment Energy, Materials, and International Security Division Direct and Indirect Employees l----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 I I Number of Employees I Dollars I I Classification J FY1989 FY1990E FY1991E I FY1989 FY1990E FY1991E I l---------------------------------------1----------I---------I---------I---------I---------I---------I I Staff Allocation I I I I I I I I (permanent positions) I 36 I 36 I 36 I I I I 1------------------------------------------------1-----------------1------------------1---------1 I I I I I I 11. l Full-Time Permanent I I I I I Full-Time Permanent 36 I 36 36 I 1,987 2,072 I 2,281 I I Part-Time Permanent 0 I 0 0 I 0 0 I 0 I I I I I I I 11. 3 Other Than Full-Time Permanent I I I I I Temporary 8 I 10 10 I 360 525 I 555 I I Intermittent/Consultants 9 I 10 10 I 0 0 I 0 I I I I I I I 25. 0 Other Services ( Contracts I I I I I for on-site personal services) 1/ 8 I 4 4 I 121 58 I 62 I 1------------------------------------------------1-----------------1------------------1---------1 1/ Includes individuals, whose services are obtained under contract with the individual or an organization, performing on-site services (in agency workspace) for six months or more during a twelve month period.
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43 -11. DIVISION B: HEALTH AND LIFE SCIENCES 1. SCHEDULES Al, Bl, AND Cl FOR THE DIVISION Schedule Al CATEGORIES Breakdown by Object Class: 11 Personnel Compensation 12 Personnel Benefits 13 Benefits to Former Personnel 21 Travel 22 Transportation of Things 23 Rent, Coamunication and Utilities 24 Printing and Reproduction 25 Other Services 26 Supplies and Materials 31 Equipment 32 Land and Structures 42 Insurance Claims and Indemnities Total Office of Technology Assessment Health and Life Sciences Division Summary By Object Class I FY 89 FY 90 I FY 91 I ACTUAL I ESTIMATE I ESTIMATE I NET CHANGE 90/91 l-----------------1-----------------1-----------------I-----------------I I I I DOLLARS I DOLLARS I I csooo, I csooo, I -----------------1-----------------1 I 2,360 I 2,591 437 I 421 3 I 1 90 I 93 5 I 5 1 I 1 161 I 181 895 I 869 32 I 47 42 I 60 o I o o I o I I 4,032 I 4,215 I DOLLARS ($000) 2,794 464 7 98 5 1 195 1,200 49 63 0 0 4,876 DOLLARS ($000) 203 43 0 5 0 0 14 331 2 3 0 0 601 --------------------________ ________ -----------------
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Schedulf Bl -44 -Office of Technology Assessment Health and Life Sciences Division Analysis of Change to Budget Base By Object Class I I PROGRAM TYPE CHANGES I l-------------1-------------1-------------I I I I EQUIPMENT. I !MANDATORY PAYI I I I ALTERATIONS, I I I I I I I AND RELATED I PRICE LEVEL I I I MAINTENANCE. I TOTAL I I COSTS I CHANGES I LEGISLATION I WORKLOAD IREPAIRS, ETC. I CHANGES I l-------------l-------------l-------------l-------------1-------------1-------------I I DOLLARS I DOLLARS I DOLLARS I DOLLARS I DOLLARS I DOLLARS I I CATEGORIES I ($000) I ($000) I ($000) I ($000) I ($000) I ($000) I -----------------------------------------1-------------I-------------I----------------------------------------------------1 Breakdown By Object Class: I I I I I I I I 11 Personnel Compensation 12 Personnel Benefits 13 Benefits to Former Personnel 21 Travel 22 Transportation of Things I 203 I I I 43 I I I o I I I I 5 I I I o I 23 Rent, Communications and Utilities I I O I 24 Printing and Reproduction 25 Other Services 26 Supplies and Materials 31 Equipment 32 Land and Structures I I 14 I I I 12 I I I 2 I I I 3 I I I I 42 Insurance Claims and Indemnities I I I I I I I I I Total I 246 I 96 I I I I 259 0 259 0 203 I 43 I o I s I o o 14 331 2 3 o 601 _________________ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1 ___________________
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I. 45 -Schedule Cl Office of Technology Assessment Health ana Life Sciences Division Detailed Analysis of Changes Appropriation, 1990 Minus: Drug Initiative P.L. 101-164 Minus: G-R-H Sequestration P.L. 99-177 Budget Base, 1990 Adjustments to Base A. Mandatory Pay and Related Costs 1. Merit increases and promotions averaging 3.5%. 2. Corresponding 3.5% increase of benefits averaging 18%. 3. Miscellaneous benefit cost increases. 4. Annualization of FY '90 cost-of-living adjustment. 5. Impact of congressional pay raise including benefits. 6. Estimated FY '91 cost-of-living adjustment. B. Price Level Changes 1. Travel related inflation of 5.0%. 2. Printing and supplies inflation of 7%. 3. Other services inflation. 4. Supplies and materials inflation of 4.6%. 5. Equipment inflation of 4.6%. C. Program Type Changes 1. Legislation 2. Workload a. Restoration of contracting services. 3. Equipment, Alterations, Maintenance, Repairs, Etc. II. Net Increase/Decrease Requested III. Total Appropriation Request, 1991 I I Calculation of Base 1------------------------------1 I Amount I Staff I ($000) 1---------1-------------------1 36 I 4,377 I I c21, I I c15, I 36 I 4,215 1===1--====== I 1991 Request 1---------1--------------------1 I Amount I Staff I ($000) ---------1--------------------0 36 1 246 I 91 15 12 26' 62 40 5 14 72 2 3 259 96 0 259 0 601 4,876
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46 -11.2. EXPLANAlION OF CHANGES SHOWN ON SCHEDULE Cl FOR DIVISION B Office of Technology Assessment Health and Life Sciences Division l-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 I EXP) .ANATION OF CHANGES SHOWN ON SCHEDULE C I I-------=-----=-==-=-=-==---=-=============-==-== IA. MANDATORY PAY AND RELATED cos,s I Staff I Amount ($000) l-----------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I 1. Merit increases and promotions averaging 3.5% agency-wide. I I 91 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I 2. Corresponding 3.5% increase in benefits which average 18% agency-I I I wide associated with merit increases and promotions. I I 15 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I 3. Miscellaneous cost increases including the annualization of I I I FY '90 health increases plus planned FY '90 increases. I I 12 l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I 4. Annualization of cost-of-living adjustment effective January 1990. I I 26 l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I 5. Impact of P.L. 101-194 on congressional pay and corresponding I I I benefits. I I 62 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I 6. Fifty percent of FY '91 cost-of-living adjustment effective January! I I 1991 per 0MB memorandum. I I 40 l-----==----=-==--==------------1---1====== IB. PRICE LEVEL CHANGES I Staff I Amount ($000) l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I I 1. Travel related inflation rates of 5.0% applied to FY '90 I I I I base due to expected rise in plane fares and car rental costs. I I 5 I 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I 2. Printing and supplies inflation rate of 7% (according to GPO I I I Circular Letter No. 307 (dated April.28, 1989) applied to I I I FY '90 base. I I 14 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I 3. Other services inflation rate of 4.6% applied to FY '90 base except! I I for research contracts, for which 10% inflation rate was applied. I I 72 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I 4. Supplies and materials inflation rate of 4.6% applied to FY '90 I I I base. I I 2 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I 5. Equipment (including furniture, permanent books, ADP equipment) I I I inflation rate of 4. 6% applied to FY '90 base. I I 3 I 1-------==-=========--=====--==-=------=--====-======-= le. PROGRAM TYPE CHANGES I Staff I Amount ($000) l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I 1. Legislation I I 0 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I 2 Workload I I 1.................................................... .. .1 I I 2a. Restoration of contracting dollars to provide for additional I I I contracts, increased contract competition, and expanded work I I I statements across-the-board. I I 259 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I 3. Equipment, Alterations, Maintenance, Repairs, Etc. I I 0 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------
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-47 -11.3. Role of the Health and Life Sciences Division The Health and Life Sciences Division comprises 3 programs: Biological Applications; Food and Renewable Resources; and Health. The Biolo~cal Applications Pro~am assesses state-of-the-art technologies arising from the cutting edge of biological science. Its broader responsibility is to help Congress understand complex technologies in biomedical sciences. Early warning is very much a part of the Program's charter, and some studies explore potential future applications of biological technologies. Because many of these new technologies have potential impacts that are of great social and political significance, ethical analysis is often a component of the assessments conducted by the Program. The scope of the Food and Renewable Resources Program includes all agriculture related technologies used to provide society with food, fiber, and chemicals, and technologies that enhance or jeopardize the ability to sustain in perpetuity the renewable resource bases that make such production possible. Agriculture itself is defined in the broad sense, including all crop and livestock production and forestry. Attention also is given to the im{>act that technology has had and is likely to have on how the agricultural system is orgamzed, who controls 1t, and where it is heading. Further, the Program covers renewable resources that presently may not be considered or produced as crops, but that support such production and are fundamental to human needs. The charter of the Health Program, the analysis of technological applications that affect human health, is reflected in three primary types of efforts: 1) assessments of clinical and general health care technologies and related policy areas; 2) assessments in the area of environmental and occupational health; and 3) collaboration with, and assistance to, other Programs on health-related issues in projects. The relationship of health care technology to financing, organization, and systems issues is a growing area of Program activity due to increased and focused Congressional interest. The Program's responsibilities include mandated reviews of protocols for studies of Agent Orange and of health effects among military personnel exposed to atomic bomb tests. 11.4. Accomplishments of the Health and Life Sciences Division In FY 1989, the Health and Life Sciences Division published 3 assessment reports and 1 special report: Technologies to Detect Pesticide Residues in Food Enhancing the Quality of U.S. Grain in International Trade Grain Quality in International Trade: A Comparison of Major U.S. Competitors New Developments in Biotechnology: Patenting Life (Special Report) In addition, the Division produced 1 background paper, 10 staff papers, and testified 9 times. Listed below are several examples of direct legislative use of the Division's work: Biological Applications 1. OTA updated information in the assessment report, Losing a Million Minds: Confronting the Tragedy of Alzheimer's Disease and Other Dementias, to prepare a comparison of Federal biomedical research expenditures for Alzheimer's disease, cancer, heart disease and AIDS for the House Select Committee on Aging. Congressman Roybal used the information in a hearing at which he introduced the Comprehensive Alzheimer's Assistance, Research and Education Act (H.R. 1490).
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-48 Staff of the House Committee on Energy and Comme:ce, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment, and Congressman Ron Wyden's staff consulted with OTA project staff about legislative lan$11age to describe eligibility for services in the Medicaid Frail Elderly Commumty Care Amendments of 1989 (H.R. 1453), which were later incorporated in the omnibus budget recom~iliation legislation. 2. OTA's recent special report, New Developments in Biotechnology: Patenting Life, was cited by Rep. Robert Kastenmeier, Chairman of tl. e House Judiciary Subcommittee on Courts, Intellectual Property, and tht Administration of Justice, in introducing H.R. 1556 (the ''Transgenic Animal Patent Peform Act") and H.R. 1557 (to regulate the use of transgenic animals). OTA staff testified at a Subcommittee hearing on September 13, 1989 on H.R. 1556. OTA staff for Patenting Life were consulted by the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Patents, Copyrights, and Trademarks regarding potential legislation regarding biotechnology and subject matter patentability. Hearings before the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Courts, Intellectual Property, and the Administration of Justice also featured this study. All witnesses appearing before the Subcommittee were asked to choose which OTA options they preferred, and to compare OT A's options to those chosen by the sponsors of H.R. 1556. 3. OTA staff for the ongoing assessment, Biotechnology in a Global Economy, conducted a workshop on Coordination of Federal Biotechnology Research and Regulation that was designed, in part, to provide requesting committees with Federal agency views on research and regulatory issues. Staff of the requesting committees participated in the workshop. Food and Renewable Resources 1. 2. 3. 4. In the Congressional Record of April 6, 1989, Senator Dodd is quoted as citing OTA's report, Pesticide Residues in Food: Technologies for Detection, as partial justification for his support of the Food Safety Amendments of 1989. The Chairman and Ranking Minority Member of the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology wrote to OTA on January 27, 1989, stating that, "the National Biological Diversity Conservation and Environmental Research Act, which was introduced during the Second Session of the 100th Congress and had 90 cosponsors, relied upon many of OTA's options." These options were provided in contained in OTA's study on Technologies to Maintain Biological Diversity. Findings and options from this report were used extensively in drafting H.R. 1268, which will likely go to markup in late 1989. Companion legislation is contained in Sen. Gore's Comprehensive Global Protection bill (S. 210). Staff of the Senate Committee on Agriculture used OTA's 1984 report, Technologies to Sustain Tropical Forest Resources, to prepare legislation on global warming. One of OTA's options, to include agroforestry research in various international agricultural research centers, was included in the bill. The Senate and House Agriculture Committees are using OTA's report Enhancing the Quality of U.S. Grain for International Trade to prepare legislation on the grain industry. Many of the policy options in the report are being seriously considered in the legislation.
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5. 6. 7. 8. -49-The House and Senate Agriculture Committees are using information gathered for the on-goin~ study, Emerging A~cultural Technologies: Issues for the 1990s, to prepare legislation on the structure, organization, and funding of the U.S. food and agriculture research system. The Committees are also using information generated by the project on the impact of new technologies (mainly biotechnology) on the dairy industry in drafting the 1990 Farm Bill. Multiple recommendations from the Grassroots Development: The African Development Foundation (ADP) study were found in the bill making appropriations for foreign assistance (H.R. 2939) for the fiscal year 1990. Rep. Wolpe used OTA's study to formulate the language for the House bill. OTA staff met with the Senate Appropriations Foreign Operations Subcommittee staff and discussed the Locust report and other issues concerning ADP of interest to the committee. Recommendations were given to staffers in the writing of two sections of the Committee Report accompanying the FY 1990 Appropriations bill, dealing with desert locusts and grasshopper infestations, and integrated pest management. This year OTA assisted the House Committee on Appropriations in the analysis and preliminary drafting of issues to be included in new legislation on Debt-for-Nature Swap for developing countries. Two OTA assessments, Technologies to Sustain Tropical Forest Resources and Technologies to Maintain Biological Diversity, provided the basis for much of the underpinnings of the new legislation (H.R. 3010). In addition, material in OTA's 1987 staff paper, Aid to Developing Countries: The Technology/Ecology Fit, played a part in developing the new legislation. The House Foreign Affairs Committee's Hamilton Commission used numerous OTA publications to prepare a report on the reorganization of the U.S. Foreign Assistance Act (FAA), includin~: Technologies to Sustain Tropical Forest Resources, Technologies to Mamtain Biological Diversity. Innovative Biological Technologies for Lesser Developed Countries, Grassroots Development: The African Development Foundation, Enhancing Agriculture in Africa: A Role for Development Assistance, Science and Technology for Development, and Africa Tomorrow: Issues in Technology, Agriculture. and U.S. Foreign Aid. Health 1. 2. 3. H.R. 665, a bill to amend the Drug-Free Schools and Communities Act of 1986 to require that grant funds provided under the Act be used to provide education relating to the use of tobacco products, and to prohibit the sale of cigarettes to minors, referred to a staff paper produced by OTA in 1985 that estimated that smoking costs the people of the United States $43 billion in lost production and $22 billion for related diseases each year. In the debate on S. 339, the Infant Mortality and Children's Health Act of 1989, Senator Shelby stated that: "These low birthweight babies are at the greatest risk for high mortality and morbidity, according to an Office of Technology Assessment study. Neonatal intensive care for these babies is also one of the most costly of all hospital admissions. The OTA reported that the U.S. health care system saves somewhere between $14,000 and $30,000 in hospitalization and long-term care costs for every low birthweight birth avoided." The OTA report was entitled Case Study #38: Neonatal Intensive Care for Low Birthweight Infants: Costs and Effectiveness. Staff of the Health Program's Rural Health Project provided a briefing and background information for the use of the Senate Rural Caucus at a press
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-50-conference it held on various issues of rural health delivery and status. 4. OTA provided background information and statistics on obstetrician rates of particrpation in Medicaid to Congressman Leland for use in a hearing related to that topic. The information was developed for our assessment, Healthy Children. 5. 6. 7. OTA provided information gathered during this assessment on childhood immunizations, well-child care, and maternal and child health outreach programs for preschool children to Senator Dodd. These were requested as part of an initiative on child health and immunizations. Based on OTA's work (a staff paper and workshop) related to the National Academy of Sciences' Medical Follow-up Agency. Senator Cranston wrote to the Department of Veterans Affairs, the Department of Defense, and the National Institutes of Health, asking them to provide core funding of $500,000 for five years (split 40 percent, 40 percent, and 20 percent). After all three agencies responded negatively, Senator Cranston wrote to the Chairs of the Senate Appropriations Committee and the three relevant Appropriations subcommittees --VA, HUD, and Independent Agencies; Defense; Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies --urging them to "develop a joint proposal to support MFUA" for 5 years, as OTA recommended. In the letter, Senator Cranston stated the conclusions of our staff paper to support the request. OTA presented testimony on the medical safety and appropriateness of having optometrists provide postoperative care to cataract surgery patients at a hearing held by the House Ways and Means Committee on fiscal year 1990 budget issues relating to Medicare reimbursement for outpatient surgery. A staff paper, Appropriate Care for Cataract Surge:ry Patients Before and After Surgeiy. provided the basis for this testimony, and the paper's text was also printed in the record of hearings held by the Senate Special Committee on Aging. In addition, more than a dozen Members of Congress asked OTA to respond to constituent mail on the appropriateness of having optometrists provide postoperative care to cataract surgery patients. OTA's case study, Nurse Practitioners, Physician Assistants and Certified Nurse Midwives: A Policy Analysis, was quoted by Senator Daschle in the floor statement as justification for the aims of his bill, S. 1384, which called for the amendment of the Social Security Act to allow direct reimbursement of nurse practitioner or clinical nurse specialist services in rural areas under Part B of the Medicare Program. Nurse Practitioners was also cited by staff to Senator Inouye in a speech concerning the reimbursement of non-physician health professionals. Rep. Edward Roybal, chairman of the House Select Committee on Aging, also rehed on information from Nurse Practitioners when he introduced the Nursing Shortage and Nurse Reimbursement Incentive Act as a strategy to attract more nurses. He used the OTA study to reinforce his argument that reimbursing nurse practitioners in place of physicians, when appropriate, would reduce health care costs. 8. OTA provided background information and briefings to committees drafting legislation to increase Department of Health and Human Services funding for "effectiveness and outcome research" (health services research related to the effectiveness of medical technologies and to the assessment of quality using patient outcomes). In September of 1989, OTA was a co-sponsor and orgamzer of a conference on Effectiveness Research, at which Congressman Gradison and Congressman Moody spoke.
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-51-9. Senator Bentsen and the Senate Finance Committee used background material, including the OTA definition of technology dependent children, in putting together its finance package for home care for chronically ill children. The information and definition are from OTA's technical memorandum, Technology-Dependent Children: Hospital v. Home Care. H.R. 832, which would expand Medicaid coverage for technology-dependent children, also adopted OTA's definition of "technology-dependent children. 11.5 Changes in Prior Plans for FY 1989 for the Health and Life Sciences Division During Fiscal Year 1989, the Health and Life Sciences Division essentially accomplished its goals, with approved modification and additions to meet the changing needs of Congress. These changes reflect the inherent uncertainty of research and the attendant need to be able to make adjustments. (Please see the chart on page 20 for the breakdown of the differences in estimated and actual Division spending for FY 1989.) 11.6 FY 1990 and FY 1991 Priorities for the Health and Life Sciences Division A Division's work is determined by the expressed needs of Congressional Committees, so we cannot safely predict an agenda, but an illustrative list of subjects that are representative of the kinds of new assessments that we may be asked to undertake can be prepared. Such an exercise, using a wide variety of information sources, helps sharpen the discussions between OTA staff and Congressional Committees. It also reflects one of the charges Congress assigned to OTA: foresight about emerging technology. Of course each Division can undertake only a few new assessments each year, so this list should be viewed only as representative of potential subjects for the assessments that the Health and Life Sciences Division may be asked to undertake in Fiscal Years 1990 and 1991. Because OTA works hard to be responsive to changing Congressional needs, new work is often significantly different from OTA's prospective list, but it usually does contain some of the identified issues. Biological Applications Biomedicine of Addiction There is considerable congressional interest in technical/neuroscience approaches to addicting drugs; pharmaceutical approaches have been and are being developed to combat their effects, and more is being learned about the biological basis of their addicting and other properties. After some delay funding of research in this area has been directed to the National Institute on Drug Abuse. Congress needs to understand what such approaches can contribute to the war on drugs and what needs to be done to improve our understanding of these approaches. This study would be carried out in cooperation with a complementary effort in the Health Program. Quality Assurance of Long Term Care of Elderly Citizens Congress has mandated a major look at long term care issues by establishing the "Pepper Commission". There will be a need to follow up and extend the work of this commission. One possible effort would characterize long term care facilities, identify and evaluate measures of their adequacy, apply these measures, and develop policy options that could help provide high quality long term care for elderly Americans.
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-52-Biological Technologies to Support Humans in Space With the announcement of the nation's commitment to a manned flight to Mars, the Congress will need to know more about the physical, psychological, and social factors that facilitate or inhibit effective human functioning in long duration space missions, and about the biology of closed environments essential to the design of small, self sustaining ecological systems. Such a study involves work in plant biology, food sciences, nutrition, human biology, and medicine to name a few. Risk Assessment and Management for Non-Cancer Environmental Toxins Federal efforts in health risk assessment and management have tended to focus most heavily on risks that involve human exposures that might lead to cancer. However, Congress has expressed an increasing mterest in non-cancer health risks in the environment. There are a number of kinds of effects or organ systems that could be involved, including some that are only recently appreciated. Such work is a logical follow on to recent efforts regarding neurotoxins and chemical hypersensitivity /immunotoxins. Keeping Older People in the Workplace Demographic trends indicate that it will be increasingly important to retain older people in the workplace because of the decreasing supply of younger workers. However, there are declines in physical and mental capacity with age that vary with the individual and that will differently affect the performance of older workers. Technical, institutional, and policy approaches to compensate for the effects of physiological decline in age should be evaluated. Food and Renewable Resources Agricultural Alternatives to Illegal Drug-crop Production Heightened concern over the impacts of illegal drug use and production on man and the environment has stimulated mterest in a~ricultural approaches to eradicate or provide alternates to coca cultivation. Ongomg and past domestic and international agricultural approaches to reducing drug-crop production would be assessed for beneficial and adverse biological and socioeconomic impacts. The potential adverse and beneficial impacts of a~riculturally related eradication efforts ( e.g., bio-control, herbicides) would be exammed particularly with respect to future agricultural productivity. Agricultural Technology Transfer: U.S. Participation in the Global Agricultural Research System Most of the recent growth in the agricultural research system, and the corresponding science and technology it has generated, has occurred outside the United States. This trend has led to concerns that the United States is becoming a net importer of agricultural technology and warnings that it will need improved access to agricultural innovations and germplasm from abroad if it is to remain competitive in global markets. U.S. technical assistance to other countries is generally viewed as a one-way transfer of knowledge and technology. In fact, U.S. agriculture has also gained efficiency and expanded overseas markets as a result of this work. This study would examine the nature of this technology exchange, and assess its costs and benefits to the future of U.S. agriculture. Improving Productivity of Degraded Resources Mismanagement of resource production systems and extension of production systems into marginal areas has adversely affected productivity of many ecosystems and, in extreme cases, may have eliminated productive uses of resources. World population increases and ensuing demands on remaining resources can be expected to exacerbate resource degradation. This OTA study would focus on ecosystems that contribute to food and fiber production. OTA could: (1) identify and assess technologies to restore
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-53 -ecosystem productivity and their potential environmental and social impacts; (2) identify institutions researching and implementing these technologies; and (3) identify impacts of these technologies on food and fiber production. Advances in Integrated Pest Management A significant portion of American farmers, concerned with the high costs, reduced effectiveness, and adverse health and environmental impacts of extensive pesticide use, are adopting alternative technologies to deal with 1,>ests. Special problems exist in implementing integrated pest management (1PM) m developing countries. Low resource African farmers can little afford to purchase costly inputs, yet national priority is given to increasing agricultural production through greater pesticide use. For example, widespread spraying of insecticides, most donor-supplied, was the only technology used to counter locust and ~asshopper upsurges in 1986-1989. This study would assess the recent advancements m 1PM, identify gaps in technical knowledge and obstacles to IPM's adoption world-wide. The Role of Renewable Resource Management in Disaster Mitigation Historically, the United States has been highly responsive to disaster victims in other countries (e.g., floods, earthquakes, droughts, fammes, and locust plagues), however, the costs of such assistance is increasing significantly. While the focus of disaster assistance commonly is crisis management, evidence supports approaching it as part of long-term natural resource management. Such crises are increasing greatly in developing countries where rapid population growth promotes migration into marginal lands (e.g. flood plains of Bangladesh). Further, industrialization in such area often may amplify effects of natural phenomena ( e.g., increases of downstream flood waters as a result of upland forest clearing). Clearly, preventative approaches are needed that incorporate technical methods in land use planning and renewable resource management, and disaster prediction and effective response procedures. The Growing Demand for Amenity Resources: Managing Renewable Resources for Tourism Tourism is a common economic rationale for preservation of areas or resources of particular significance. Tourism, however, carries the seeds of its own destruction: the very resources that attract visitors are the ones most threatened by their activities. Technologies to integrate tourism with renewable resource management --to maximize the benefits of tourism while minimizing its adverse impacts -have not been assessed. OTA could examine: (1) trends in resource-related tourism; (2) relationship of tourism with environmental degradation; (3) technologies that integrate tourism with resource protection, agriculture, and fisheries; ( 4) opportunities to improve tourism's role as public environmental educator; and (5) role of Congress in tourism development and renewable resource management. Technology for a Diverse Agriculture American agriculture is rapidly evolving into two distinct and separate components commercial and part-time agnculture. Commercial farms represent about 15 percent of all farms but produce 90 percent of the food supply. In contrast, part-time farms account for 85 percent of all farms and produce 10 percent of the food supply. Both types of farms are important to a competitive and environmentally benign agriculture. However, the technology needed for each type of farm may be quite different. Research has focused almost exclusively on commercial farms. This study would assess the diverse needs of commercial and part-time farms, identify technologies needed, and provide alternative institutional structures to develop and transfer the technologies.
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54 -Health Drug Abuse Prevention & Treatment -Reducing the Demand for Illegal Drugs This study would focus on issues related to the demand for illegal drugs, including prevention and rreatment of drug abuse. Topics would range from examining what is know about the ioot causes of addiction (both biological and environment factors) to analyzing the implications of drug legalization. This study will be carried out in cooperation with 'i complementary effort in the Biological Applications Program. Worldwide Transmission of Viruses and Tropical Diseases Since 1985, when OTA released its full assessment on tropical diseases, research and treatment for diseases and other health conditions of the developing world have improved in some significant areas, but in general these remain wide scale and extremely serious problems. Compounding the concern for the populations of these countries are increasing concerns that: 1) a large number of agents (e.g., potentially devastating viruses) are harbored in developing regions with a growing possibility of their being introduced to the industrialized world, and 2) diseases once thought confined to the tropical regions or less developed countries are more and more being seen in industrialized countries. This assessment would examine the evidence on whether these concerns are warranted and have the potential to become serious threats to health and would suggest options for dealing with current problems and anticipating future ones. Cancer Center Clinical Trials and the Medicare Program This project was initially proposed in the House reconciliation bill as a mandated study for OTA It involves collecting original data on the clinical trials involving Medicare patients at the designated Cancer Centers ( the Centers would be obligated to provide raw data to OTA as part of their contracts with DHHS). Analysis would center around the medical and financial implications of including elderly patients in clinical trials and having the patient care portion of their treatment paid for by Medicare. Intrauterine Surgical Treatment of Fetal Abnormalities: Technology, Cost, and Implications for Medicaid The past decade has witnessed an ever-increasing array of surgical techniques to treat fetal abnormalities in utero. These techniques, which are still largely experimental, raise numerous potential ethical and economic issues. This assessment would examine: 1) the technologies presently being used, their apparent effectiveness, and the conditions to which they apply; 2) the prevalence of those conditions (and the potential breadth of application of the technologies); 3) future possibilities for or changes in technologies; 4) potential ethical and legal issues raised by the application of these technologies; 5) present status of health insurance and Medicaid coverage; and potential future reimbursement issues. Health Care and the Inner City This assessment would examine the problems surrounding health care in the inner city. The problems specific to or much more prevalent in urban settings include such things as higher numbers of uninsured and :poor people, higher homicide and violent crime rates, teenage pregnancy and other nsk factors for higher infant mortality, homelessness, and substance abuse and treatment problems and disease incidence associated with it. The assessment would develop a set of options for dealin~ with the particular conditions associated with the delivery of health care in these settmgs.
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55 -11.7. Workload Data: Health and Life Sciences Division 1989 1990 1991 I I actual I (est.) I (est.) I !Projects in Process Begiming of Fiscal Year (1)1 17 I 18 I 12 I 1 !Projects Approved by TAB During the Fiscal Year I 5 I 4 I 6 I 1 !Reports Published During the Fiscal Year (2) I 4 I 10 I 6 I 1==================================================1========1========1========1 !Projects in Process End of Fiscal Year I 18 I 12 I 12 I ============================================================================= (1) Projects in Process counts all TABapproved activities. A project may produce more than one assessment report, or may produce no reports at all, therefore numbers are not additive. Projects in press or under TAB review are counted. (2) Reports includes full assessment reports and special reports, but not technical memoranda, background papers, or staff papers.
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Schedule El 56 11.8 STAFFING OF THE DIVISION Office of Technology Assessment Healtt and Life Sciences Division Dire,,t and Indirect Employees 1----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I I I Number of EfflI.loyees I Dollars I I Classification I FY1989 FY1990E FY1991E I FY1989 FY1990E FY1991E I l---------------------------------------1----------I---------I---------I---------I---------I---------I I Staff Allocation I I I I I I I I (permanent positions) I 36 I 36 I 36 I I I I l---------------------------------------1----------I---------I---------I---------I---------I---------I I I I I I I I I I 11.1 Full-Time Permanent I I I I I I I I Full-Time Permanent I 35 I 35 I 35 I 1,618 I 1,697 I 1,848 I I Part-Time Permanent I 2 I 2 I 2 j 57 I 54 I 57 I I I I I I I I I I 11.3 Other Than Full-Time Permanent I I I I I I I I Temporary I 30 I 32 I 32 I 685 I 840 I 889 I I Intermittent/Consultants I 18 j 19 j 19 I 0 I 0 I 0 I I I I I I I I I I 25. 0 Other Services (Contracts I I I I I I I I for on-site personal services) 1/ I 1 I 4 I 4 I 7 I 86 I 90 I l---------------------------------------1----------I---------I---------I---------I---------I---------I 1/ Includes individuals, whose services are obtained under contract with the individual or an organization, performing on-site services (in agency workspace) for six months or more during a twelve month period.
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Schedule Al -57 -12. DIVISION C: SCIENCE, INFORMATION, AND NATURAL RESOURCES 1. SCHEDULES Al, Bl, AND Cl FOR THE DIVISION Office of Technology Assessment Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division Summary By Object Class I FY 89 FY 90 I FY 91 I ACTUAL I ESTIMATE I ESTIMATE I NET CHANGE 90/911 l-----------------1-----------------1-----------------I-----------------I I I I I DOLLARS I DOLLARS I I CATEGORIES I ($000) I ($000) I --------------------------------------------1-----------------I-----------------Breakdown by Object Class: I I 11 Personnel Compensation 2,478 I 2,693 12 Personnel Benefits 471 I 490 13 Benefits to Former Personnel 2 I 7 21 Travel 93 I 93 22 Transportation of Things 9 I 8 23 Rent, Comnunication and Utilities 3 I 2 24 Printing and Reproduction 128 I 139 25 Other Services 930 I 737 26 Supplies and Materials 31 I 45 31 Equipment 43 I 61 32 Land and Structures O I 0 42 Insurance Claims and Indemnities O I 0 I I Total 4,188 I 4,275 I -------------------_______ 1 _______ DOLLARS ($000) -----------------2,907 533 7 98 9 2 149 1,060 47 64 0 0 4,876 I I I DOLLARS I I ($000) I -----------------1 I I 214 I 43 I -o I 5 I 1 I o I 10 I 323 I 2 I 3 I a I o I I I 601 I I I
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Schedule Bl -58 -Office of Technology Assessment Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division Analysis of Change to Budget Base By Object Class I I PROGRAM TYPE CHANGES I l-------------1-------------1-------------I I I I EQUIPMENT' I !MANDATORY PAY! I I I ALTERATIONS, I I AND RELATED I PRICE LEVEL I I I MAINTENANCE' I TOTAL I COSTS I CHANGES I LEGISLATION I WORKLOAD !REPAIRS, ETC., CHANGES I l-------------l-------------l-------------l-------------1-------------1-------------I I DOLLARS I DOLLARS I DOLLARS I DOLLARS I DOLLARS I DOLLARS I I CATEGORIES I ($000) I ($000) I ($000) I ($000) I ($000) I ($000) I 1------------------------------------------------------1-------------1--------------------------1--------------------------1 I Breakdown By Object Class: I I I I I I I I I I 11 Personnel Compensation 214 I I I 214 I 12 Personnel Benefits 43 I I I 43 I 13 Benefits to Former Personnel O I I I O I 21 Travel I 5 I I 5 I 22 Transportation of Things I 1 I I 1 I 23 Rent, Communications and Utilities I O I I O I 24 Printing and Reproduction I 10 I I 10 I 25 Other Services I 61 I 262 I 323 I 26 Supplies and Materials I 2 I I 2 I 31 Equipment I 3 I I 3 I 32 Land and Structures I I I I O I 42 Insurance Claims and Indemnities I I I I O I I I I I I I I I I I Total 257 I 82 I O I 262 I O 601 I I I I I I --------------____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1 ________ I
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I. 59 Schedule Cl Office of Technology Assessment Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division Detailed Analysis of Changes Appropriation, 1990 Minus: Drug Initiative P.L. 101-164 Minus: G-R-H Sequestration P.L. 99-177 Budget Base, 1990 Adjustments to Base A. Mandatory Pay and Related Costs 1. Merit increases and promotions averaging 3.5%. 2. Corresponding 3.5% increase of benefits averaging 18%. 3. Miscellaneous benefit cost increases. 4. Annualization of FY '90 cost-of-living adjustment. 5. Impact of congressional pay raise including benefits. 6. Estimated FY '91 cost-of-living adjustment. B. Price Level Changes 1. Travel related inflation of 5.0%. 2. Transportation services inflation of 4.6%. 3. Printing and supplies inflation of 7%. 4. Other services inflation. 5. Supplies and materials inflation of 4.6%. 6. Equipment inflation of 4.6%. C. Program Type Changes 1. Legislation 2. Workload a. Restoration of contracting services. 3. Equipment, Alterations, Maintenance, Repairs, Etc. II. Net Increase/Decrease Requested III. Total Appropriation Request, 1991 I I Calculation of Base 1------------------------------1 I Amount I Staff I ($000) 1---------1------------------1 36 I I I I I I 36 I (27) (75) 4,377 4,275 1---1----== I 1991 Request 1---------1--------------------1 I Amount I Staff I ($000) 1---------1--------------------1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 0 36 I I I 94 17 10 26 69 41 5 1 10 61 2 3 262 257 82 0 262 0 601 4,876
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60 -12.2. EXPLANATION OF CHANGES SHOWN ON SCHEDULE Cl FOR DIVISION C Office of Technology Assessment Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division 1-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I I EXPLANATION OF CHANGES SHOWN ON SCHEDULE C I 1-------------------------1 IA. MANDATORY PAY AND RELATED COSTS I Staff I Amount ($000) l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I 1. Merit increases and promotions averaging 3.5% agency-wide. I I 94 l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I 2. Corresponding 3.5% increase in benefits which average 18% agency-I I I wide associated with merit increases and promotions. I I 17 l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I 3. Miscellaneous cost increases including the annualization of I I I FY '90 heal th increases plus planned FY '90 increases. I I 10 l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I 4. Annualization of cost-of-living adjustment effective January 1990. I I 26 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I 5. Impact of P.L. 101-194 on congressional pay and corresponding I I I benefits. I I 69 l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I 6. Fifty percent of FY '91 cost-of-living adjustment effective JanuaryJ I I 1991 per 0MB memorandum. I I 41 1-----------------------1---1-----IB. PRICE LEVEL CHANGES I Staff I Amount ($000) I l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I I 1. Travel related inflation rates of 5.0% applied to FY '90 I I I I base due to expected rise in plane fares and car rental costs. I I 5 I 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I I 2. Transportation services inflation rate of 4.6% applied to I I I I FY 90 base I I 1 I 1------------------------------------------------------------------------l---------I--------------------I 3. Printing and supplies inflation rate of 7% (according to GPO I I I Circular Letter No. 307 (dated April 28, 1989) applied to I I I FY '90 base. I I 10 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I 4. Other services inflation rate of 4.6% applied to FY '90 base except! I I for research contracts, for which 10% inflation rate was applied. I I 61 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I 5. Supplies and materials inflation rate of 4.6% applied to FY '90 I I I base. I J 2 l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I 6. Equipment (including furniture, permanent books, ADP equipment) I I I inflation rate of 4. 6% applied to FY '90 base. I I 3 ,~--~=~-=------~--------~========== Jc. PROGRAM TYPE CHANGES I Staff I Amount ($000) l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I 1. Legislation I I 0 l-----------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I 2. Workload I I I................................. .. .. --1 I I a. Restoration of contracting dollars to provide for additional I I I contracts, increased contract competition, and expanded work I I I statements across-the-board. I I 262 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I 3. Equipment, Alterations, Maintenance, Repairs, Etc. I I 0 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I
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-61-12.3 Role of the Science, Information. and Natural Resources Division The Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division comprises 3 programs: Communication and Information Technologies; Oceans and Environment; and Science, Education, and Transportation. The Communication and Information Technologies Program is concerned with technologies that create, read, store, manipulate, transmit, or display information. Primarily these are electronic technologies exemplified by computers and communications systems. The core responsibilities of the Program require momtoring the research and development of new information technologies and assessing the technological state of the art in these areas as well as trends in basic research and development. The Program also studies telecommunications regulation, information policy, and applications of information technology in the public sector. The Oceans and Environment Program has responsibility for all ocean-related questions, including ocean resources and maritime policy, and for large-scale environmental issues, such as climate modification and water pollution. As a result of changing Con~ressional interest, the Program has developed capability for analyzing the difficult quest10ns in which the overriding concern lies with the environmental effects of decisions. The work of the Program usually falls under one of five basic categories: federal services, natural resources, pollution control, marine industry, and large-scale environmental issues. The Science, Education, and Transportation Program is responsible for work in the broad areas of science policy (basic research direction and resource allocation), education (in grade K through graduate school and programs for adults not based on job skills), and the more technology specific area of transportation. For purposes of Program development: (1) "science" includes issues surrounding the health of the scientific enterprise; (2) "education" refers to in-school and other methods, practices, and philosophy for people from early childhood through adult; and (3) "transportation" refers to all modes of transport vehicular, rail, air, and water. 12.4 Accomplishments of the Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division In FY 1989, the Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division published 3 assessment reports and 1 interim summary: Informing the Nation: The Future of Public Electronic Printing. Publishing, and Dissemination Catching Our Breath: Next Steps for Reducing Urban Ozone Polar Prospects: A Minerals Treaty for Antarctica Facing America's Trash: What Next for Municipal Solid Waste (Interim Summary) The Division also published 1 special report, 1 technical memorandum, and 6 background papers: Safer Skies With TCAS: Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (Special Report) Elementary and Secondary Education for Science and Engineering (Technical Memorandum) Issues in Medical Waste Management Evaluation of Options for Managing Greater-Than-Class-C Low Level Radioactive Waste Higher Education for Science and Engineering High School Vocational Education: Measures of Program Performance
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-62] echnolo~ies for Reducing Dioxin in the Manufacture of Bleached Wood Pulp 1~-:ompetition in Coastal Seas: An Evaluation of Foreign Maritime Activities in the 200-Mile EEZ In additi,1n, the Division prepared 5 staff papers and testified 14 times. Li~ted below are several examples of direct legislative use of the Division's work: Communic.ation and Information Technologies 1. The Chairman of the Subcommittee on Procurement and Printing, House Committee on Administration, wrote that OTA's assessment, Informing the Nation, provided the impetus for the subcommittee's hearings on Title 44 of the U.S.C. with the following conclusion: "Con~essional action is urgently needed to resolve federal information dissemination issues and to set the direction of federal activities for years to come." He also stated that the subcommittee would rely on OTA and its report in the legislative review hearings. The Chairman of the Subcommittee on Legislative, House Committee on Appropriations, made the following statement at the subcommittee's hearing: "the timing of these hearings could not be more appropriate. As the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) recently concluded, electronic technologies are making significant inroads in Federal information dissemination, creating new opportunities for improving efficiency, reducing costs, and expanding access to government information users. At the same time, however, OTA found that the printing statutes are increasingly unable to provide clear guidance on how these technologies can best be utilized to serve the needs of the Government and the public. "Overall, the OTA report makes a convincing case for Congressional action to resolve these problems and set the direction of Federal information policy for the years to come. I encourage you to make the fullest possible use of the OTA's ground-breaking report in your review of Title 44, and I support you in this effort to increase Congress' understanding of the problems and opportunities that confront the Government's printing program and the GPO today." 2. Interim results from OTA's ongoing assessment of Information Technology and Research have been used in developing legislation in both the House and Senate. The Chairman of the Senate Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space distributed copies of OTA's background paper, High Performance Computing and Networking for Science, to all members of the Senate. OTA also testified last spring at hearings held by the House Subcommittee on Science, Research, and Technology on the state of the supercomputing industry. 3. Rep. Gerald D. Kleczka of the House Government Operations Committee cited OT A's findings on the need for an electronic Freedom of Information Act in introducing H.R. 2773, ''The Freedom of Information Public Improvements Act of 1989." Oceans and Environment 1. S. 587, a bill to amend the Marine Protection, Research, and Sanctuaries Act to protect marine and near-shore coastal waters through establishment of regional marine research programs, and S. 1178, the Marine Protection Act of 1989, cited a finding from OTA's assessment, Wastes in Marine Environments, that the overall health of marine and coastal waters is declining or threatened.
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-63 This report was also cited by Senator Lautenberg as he introduced S. 1179, the Comprehensive Ocean Assessment and Strategy Act of 1989: "The Office of Technology Assessment, in a 1987 report, concluded that the overall health of our coastal waters is 'declinin$ or threatened, and that 'in the absence of additional measures, new or continued degradat10n will occur in many estuaries and some coastal waters around the country.' OTA also determined that contamination of the marine environment has a wide range of adverse effects on birds and mammals, fin (sh and shellfish, aquatic ve$etation and benthic organizations. Finally, OTA concluded existing programs, even if fully implemented, are not adequate to maintain and improve our coastal waters." He urged Congress to respond positively to the problems identified by OTA and others. H.R. 2953, a bill to establish a comprehensive marine pollution restoration program, to amend the Federal Water Pollution Control Act and the Marine Protection, Research, and Sanctuaries Act, and for other purposes, also cites findings from OT A's work in this area. 2. H.R. 2459, a bill to authorize appro?riations for the Coast Guard for fiscal year 1990, calls for the Secretary of Transportation to incorporate the results of past studies conducted by OTA and other respected organizations m a new study evaluating the relative worldwide operating and environmental safety records of tankers equipped with double hulls or double bottoms and those without those features. A number of bills have been introduced on the oil spill issue since the EXXON VALDEZ spill, including the Oil Tanker Navigation Safety Act of 1989. At hearings and in House and Senate reports, OTA's past work on this subject has been referenced. The Senate Commerce Committee introduced findings from a 1975 OTA report at 1989 hearings and they were once again confirmed. 3. In requestin$ assistance in evaluating the provisions of com?eting clean air legislation, the Chairman of the Subcommittee on Health and Environment, House Committee on Energy and Commerce, wrote: "For the past eight years, OTA has played a leading role in the development of our understanding of air pollution and proposals for alleviating it ... OTA can provide invaluable assistance to the legislative process in preparing these analyses. This is especially so given the extensive involvement of OT A with these issues over the past years. No other independent agency has your expertise in the critical issues." 4. The Chairman of the Subcommittee on Regulation, Business Opportunities, and Energy, House Committee on Small Business, wrote to OTA saying that OTA's background paper, Issues in Medical Waste Management, provided "the first real focus on this technologically and politically complicated issue." This background paper was referenced by the drafters of the Medical Waste Tracking Act, passed last October. 5. Both S.J.Res. 57 and H.J.Res. 226, which sought to establish a national policy on permanent papers, took note of OTA's assessment, Book Preservation Technologies, particularly OTA's estimate that only 15 to 25 percent of the books currently being published m the United States are printed on acid free permanent paper. 6. OTA initiated the recent assessment, Facing America's Trash, in anticipation of the reauthorization of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). OTA has commented informally on more than 10 RCRA-related bills, including the two major reauthorization bills introduced in the Senate. Since release of the interim summary June, OT A has testified on four occasions, three of which directly involved legislation. These testimonies were: 1) MSW in general, House Energy and Commerce Committee (no legislation) 2) MSW in general, Senate Environment and Public Works (RCRA reauthorizations bills S. 1112 and S. 1113); 3) degradable plastics, Senate Governmental
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-64-Affairs (S. 244); and 4) Capitol Hill Rec-,cling, House Committee on House Administration (H. Res. 104). 7. The OTA Director testified before the House Committee on Energy and Commerce in Sept. 1988, and the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources in March 1989 on the energy implications of global wru ming, drawin~ on both ongoing work and earlier OTA studies. Numerous informal discursions and bnefings have occurred with at least eight Committees of the Congress. Science. Education. and Transportation 1. H.R. 53, a bill to amend the Hazardous Materials Transportation Act to improve hazardous materials transportation safety, included among its fmdings a citation to the effect that, "the Office of Technology Assessment has determined that while the Department of Transportation prescribes railroad tank car design specifications, it is not sufficiently involved in the design approval activities of the industry-based Association of American Railroads Tank Care Committee, and is not permitted to attend sessions where the designs are analyzed and evaluated." The report to which this bill referred, Transportation of Hazardous Materials, was also cited in the Congressional Record of January 20, 1989, where Hon. Dean A Gallo noted that, "the July 1986 report to Congress by the Office of Technology Assessment showed that the transportation of hazardous materials is largely a regional phenomenon. The average trip length for trucks hauling chemicals, for example, is 260 miles. Based on their com?rehensive analysis, OT A concluded that "annual DOT summaries of aggregate regional shipments could provide useful regional and State commodity flow data."" H.R. 2234, a bill requiring the development of hazardous materials emergency response procedures, prohibiting the transportation of hazardous materials in certain obsolete railroad tank cards, and requiring a study of railroad tank care design procedures, also cited this study, saying that, 'The Office of Technology Assessment has determined that while the Department of Transportation prescribes railroad tank car design specifications, it is not sufficiently involved in the design approval activities of the industry based Association of American Railroads Tank Car Committee, and is not permitted to attend sessions where the designs are analyzed and evaluated." 2. OTA testified to the findings of a special report, Safer Skies With TCAS: Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System, before the Aviation Subcommittee of the House Committee on Public Works and Transportation. In his remarks opening the hearing, Chairman Oberstar stated, "I want to compliment OTA for the excellence of your work, the quality of the presentation made, and very fine analytical work accomplished with a very difficult subject. It is one which was accomplished with great skill and is a great service to the Congress." Subsequently, the conclusions reached were used as the basis for legislation passed by both the House and Senate modifying P.L. 100-233. 3. S. 880, a motor carrier safety bill, includes a provision requiring safety equipment that gives trucks greater visibility at night. This provision is taken directly from the options in OTA's report, Gearing Up for Safety. 4. Key ideas on performance assessment and requirements for continued evaluation of the use of various databases and methods in performance measurement, which were derived from OTA's background paper, Performance Standards for Secondazy School Vocational Education, were incorporated in H.R. 7. 5. OTA's assessment, Educating Scientists and Engineers: Grade School to Grad School, and two supporting documents, Elementazy and Seconda,ry Education for Science and Engineering and Higher Education for Science and Engineering. provided the basis for
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-65 testimony before the Subcommittee on Science, Research, and Technology of the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology. On the basis of this work and preliminary work in broader aspects of science policy, OTA has briefed several committees and testified on the Hill and throughout the country. 12.5. Changes in Prior Plans for FY 1989 for the Science, Information. and Natural Resources Division During Fiscal Year 1989, the Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division essentially accomplished its goals, with approved modifications and additions to meet the changing needs of Congress. These changes reflect the inherent uncertainty of research and the attendant need to be able to make adjustments. (Please see the chart on page 20 for the breakdown of the differences in estimated and actual Division spending for FY 1989.) 12.6. FY 1990 and FY 1991 Priorities for the Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division A Division's work is determined by the expressed needs of Congressional Committees, so we cannot safely predict an agenda, but an illustrative list of subjects that are representative of the kinds of new assessments that we may be asked to undertake can be prepared. Such an exercise, using a wide variety of information sources, helps sharpen the discussions between OTA staff and Congressional Committees. It also reflects one of the charges Congress assigned to OTA: foresight about emerging technology. Of course each Division can undertake only a few new assessments each year, so this list should be viewed only as representative of potential subjects for the assessments that the Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division may be asked to undertake in Fiscal Years 1990 and 1991. Because OTA works hard to be responsive to changing Congressional needs, new work is often significantly different from OTA's prospective list, but it usually does contain some of the identified issues. Communication and Information Technologies Copyright and Patent Protection of Computer Software and Databases The U.S. leads the world in the innovation of computer software. Software is intellectual property. Unlike machines and manufacturing processes, software is difficult to protect from plagiarism or unauthorized use. In order to preserve the author's rights, encourage creativity, and preserve our competitive position in international markets, technical and legal means must be found to protect the intellectual property embedded in computer software, databases and computer devices. Technical Standards for Telecommunications and Computers Since the divestiture of AT&T in 1984, competition has stimulated the development of new telecommunications technologies that have merged computing technology with the telephone net. The ability to connect a variety of equipment in an efficient, compatible manner requires agreement on industry standards. Such standards are now set through a combination of ad hoc industry processes and government regulation in both domestic and international fora. Standards can be used as non-tariff barriers in international trade, as well as means to improve the performance of the communications network.
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-66 -International Telecommunications Major restructuring of the global telecommunications network is underway in technologies and through reorganization. Technology is increasirig the speed of international communications and reducing the cost. As a result, financial markets and businesses now operate globally on a 24-hour schedule. Jobs once performed within the U.S. are now being done in distant countries. These trends of~er both opportunities and dangers to our competitive position. Advanced -:ommunications technology is at the root of these changes. Anticipating what affect this will have on the domestic telecommunications industry and the U.S. economy at large is important in meeting the challenges of the future. Mission-Critical Computer Software for the Federal Government A recent investigative report by the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology identified a number of serious deficiencies in the system used by the Federal nnssion agencies to develo9 computer software, and detected flaws in the software itself. The Federal agene1es spend $30-$50 billion annually on software procurement. A reappraisal of the way in which specifications are written and the manner in which software is procured is needed to ensure quality control, cost effectiveness and flexibility for meeting the agencies needs. Radio Frequency Spectrum Management The radio frequency spectrum is considered to be a public resource, and thus is managed and regulated by the Federal Communications Commission. Technology creates demand for increased use of the spectrum, while providing means to conserve and more effectively use the spectrum. With expanding markets for telecommunications services and new emerging technologies, unparalleled demands are being placed on the spectrum. An appraisal of the trends in spectrum use and the technolo~1es behind them could provide guidelines for improving the management of this public resource and lead to alternative ways to license and allocate uses within the spectrum. Future Directions in Advanced Computers Trends in computer architecture have been toward packaging more and faster com{'uting power into smaller packages and increasing its portability. Future applications will emphasize visualization, which will create additional demand for computing power. Emerging technologies will continue to increase the speed and capacity of computers as they are refined and miniaturized. How far and how fast this trend will continue may depend on the physical laws governing microelectronics. Technological breakthroughs may be needed to push toward the next generation of advanced computers. With international competition for computers and computer technology increasing, it is important that the U.S. develop a vision for the future and identify those technologies that would allow it to remain competitive. Oceans and Environment Impacts of Global Warming This will be Phase II of OTA's ongoing global warming work. It will examine ways to mitigate the expected impacts of global warming. In particular, it will examine policies that will make the U.S. both flexible and resilient in its response to climate change. Industrial, Non-Hazardous Wastes Very little attention has been given to this component of the waste stream even though it may be the lar~est and pose unique public policy problems. This assessment would attempt to descnbe the industrial, non-hazardous waste problem and consider appropriate policy responses.
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67 -Indoor Air Pollution The extent and nature of human health hazards from indoor air pollution are not well defined and understood. The object of this assessment will be to more carefully describe these hazards and their policy implications. Non-Point Source Pollution Rivers, lakes,estuaries and groundwater are contaminated to varying degrees by pollutants from such "nonpoint" sources as surface runoff from farmlands and urban streets, deposition from the atmosphere, and flow through groundwater into rivers. This assessment could help the Congress to jud~e the relative importance of the nonpoint source pollution problem and to consider the various roles the Federal Government might play in dealing with it. Shoreline and Coastal Land Use Management As the needs for recreational, commercial and residential space along the U. S. coasts increase, the conflicts with needs to preserve shorelines and other coastal lands are intensifying. Examination of some of the new technologies available for coastal preservation and selected state and Federal pro$rams for shoreline and coastal management, could assist Congress as they consider various measures to reduce conflicts in the coastal regions. Aquaculture Per capita consumption of seafood continues to increase but domestic landings supply less than 60% of this consumption. This assessment would explore ways to expand domestic seafood production and develop export potential though traditional aquaculture techmques and emerging biological methods. Science, Education, and Transportation The Technology of Assessment/ Alternatives to Standardized Tests It is increasingly clear that problems associated with the use of standardized, multiple choice tests are resulting in inadequate screenin~ and selection mechanisms, adverse impacts on certain groups, and distortion of cumculum and teaching resources. OT A will examine alternatives now being tested in this country and abroad, and will explore what rapidly developing cognitive science research can offer to improve our testing methods. Delivering Literacy via Technology Rapid advances in telecommunications and the need for literacy programs suggest that delivering instruction in reading may be both cost-effective and attractive in the near future. Technology allows for learners to be linked to other groups and resources, including libraries, community colleges and science centers, that can contribute to the learning effort. OTA would examine the literacy delivery system, and identify ways to utilize technology to reach more people more effectively. The National Airspace System Plan Revisited Congress will need advice on the implementation of the National Airspace System Plan as the FAA moves through implementation. OTA's work on both technology and human factors in modern aviation strategy make this a likely study. Education: Research Into Practice The lack of connection between research and field practice is particularly striking in education. OTA would examine what is causing this problem. Does it lie with the nature of the research itself, the dissemination mechanism, the structure of the school, etc.? Should these approaches be altered? What research would be most valuable and likely to be used?
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-68 -Conflicts of Interest in the Research Community Differences in interpretation of research procedures, including review and publication, are creating stress within the research community and between the community and the Congress. Controversy is proliferating around how science is conducted and what mechanisms are necessary to protect the various public needs. OTA would look broadly at the institutional mechanisms, whether they are a help or a hindrance, and what changes the Congress might make. Evaluation of Vocational Education Standards OTA has been asked to monitor and review the development of performance standards for the federally-assisted programs of high school vocational education.
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-69 -12.7. Workload Data: Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division 19s9 I 1990 1991 I actual I (est.) I (est.) I !Projects in Process Begiming of Fiscal Year C1>I 13 I 12 I 9 I llllI !Projects Approved by TAB During the Fiscal Year I 3 I 4 I 6 I llllI I Reports Published During the Fi seal Year (2) I 4 I 7 I 5 I 1==================================================1========1========1========1 !Projects in Process End of Fiscal Year I 12 I 9 I 10 I ============================================================================= (1) Projects in Process counts all TABapproved activities. A project may produce more than one assessment report, or may produce no reports at all, therefore nunbers are not additive. Projects in press or under TAB review are counted. (2) Reports includes full assessment reports and special reports, but not technical memoranda, background papers, or staff papers.
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Schedule El 70 -12.8. STAFFING OF THE DIVISION Office of Technology Assessment Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division Direct and Indirect Employees 1----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I I I Number of Employees I Dollars I I Classification I FY1989 FY1990E FY199lE I FY1989 FY1990E FYl99lE j l---------------------------------------1----------I---------I---------I---------I---------I---------I J Staff Allocation I I I I I I I I (permanent positions) I 36 I 36 I 36 I I I I l---------------------------------------1------------------1------------------1---------1---------1 I I I I I I I ll.l Full-Time Permanent I J I I I I Full-Time Permanent I 35 35 I 35 l, 821 I l, 953 I 2,126 I I Part-Time Permanent I 2 2 I 2 41 I 46 I 49 I I I I I I I I ll.3 Other Than Full-Time Permanent I I I I I I Temporary I l 7 18 I 18 616 I 694 I 732 I I Intermittent/Consultants I 5 6 I 6 0 I O I O I I I I I I I I 25. 0 Other Services ( Contracts I I I I I I for on-site personal services) l/ I 2 4 I 4 39 I 59 I 62 I l---------------------------------------1----------I---------I------------------1---------1---------1 1/ Includes individuals, whose services are obtained under contract with the individual or an organization, performing on-site services (in agency workspace) for six months or more during a twelve month period.
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Schedule Al -71 -13. DIVISION G: GENERAL AND ADMINISTRATION 1. SCHEDULES Al, Bl, AND Cl FOR THE DIVISION Ofice of Teclmology Assessment General and Administration Sumnary By Object Class I FY 89 FY 90 I FY 91 I ACTUAL I ESTIMATE I ESTIMATE I NET CHANGE 90/911 l-----------------1-----------------1-----------------I-----------------I I I I I I I DOLLARS I DOLLARS I DOLLARS I DOLLARS I I CATEGORIES I ($000) I ($000) I ($000) I ($000) I --------------------------------------------1-----------------I----------------------------------1-----------------1 Breakdown by Object Class: I I I .. 1 I I I I 11 Personnel Compensation I 1,698 I 1,810 1,931 I 121 I 12 Personnel Benefits I 310 I 342 371 I 29 I 13 Benefits to Former Personnel I 22 I 7 14 I 7 I 21 Travel I 52 I 77 81 I 4 I 22 Transportation of Things I 58 I 64 67 I 3 23 Rent, Conmunication and Utilities I 1,931 I 2,008 2,127 I 119 24 Printing and Reproduction I 62 I 70 75 I 5 25 Other Services I 858 I 918 946 I 28 26 Supplies and Materials I 211 I 183 191 I 8 31 Equipment I 496 I 267 279 I 12 32 Land and Structures I 0 I 0 0 I 0 42 Insurance Claims and Indemnities I 0 I 0 0 I 0 I I I I I I Total I 5,698 I 5,746 6,082 I 336 I I I __________________ 1 _______ 1 ______________ 1 ______
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Schedule Bl CATEGORIES Breakdown By Object Class: 11 Personnel Compensation 12 Personnel Benefits 13 Benefits to Former Personnel 21 Travel 22 Transportation of Things 23 Rent, Coomunications and Utilities 24 Printing and Reproduction 25 Other Services 26 Supplies and Materials 31 Equipment 32 Land and Structures 42 Insurance Claims and Indemnities Total 72 Offi,,e of Technology Assessment GEneral and Administration Analysis of Change to Budget Base By Object Class I I I I I PROGRAM TYPE CHANGES I I l-------------1-------------1-------------I I I I I EQUIPMENT' I !MANDATORY PAY! I I I ALTERATIONS, I I AND RELATED I PRICE LEVEL I I I MAINTENANCE. I TOTAL I I COSTS I CHANGES I LEGISLATION I WORKLOAD !REPAIRS, ETC, I CHANGES I l-------------l-------------1-------------1-------------I-------------I-------------I I DOLLARS I DOLLARS I DOLLARS I DOLLARS I DOLLARS I DOLLARS I I csooo, I csooo, I csooo, I csooo, I csooo, I csooo, I -------------------------1-------------1--------------------------1-------------1 I I I I I I I: 121 I I 121 I : 29 I I 29 I 1 I I 1 I 4 I I 4 I 3 I 3 I 113 I 6 119 I 5 I s I 55 I c21, 2s I s I s I 12 I 12 I I O I I a I I I I I 151 200 I o c21, o 336 I I I -----------------------______ _____ ------------_____ I
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I. 73 -Schedule Cl Office of Tecl:mology Assessment General and Administration Detailed Analysis of Changes Allocation, 1990 Minus: G-R-H Sequestration P.L. 99-177 Budget Base, 1990 Adjustments to Base A. Mandatory Pay and Related Costs 1. Merit increases and promotions averaging 3.5%. 2. Corresponding 3.5% increase in benefits averaging 18%. 3. Miscellaneous benefit cost increases. 4. Annualization 0 FY '90 cost-of-living adjustment. 5. Additional claim or unemployment compensation. 6. Impact of congressional pay raise including benefits. 7. Estimated FY '91 cost-of-living adjustment. B. Price Level Changes 1. Travel related inflation 0 5.0%. 2. Transportation services inflation 0 4.6%. 3. Building lease operating expense and tax increases. 4. Copier service inflation of 4.6%. 5. Telephone services inflation of 4.6%. I I Calculation 0 Base 1-----------------------------1 Amount I Sta I ($000) 1---------1-------------------1 35 I 5,169 I o I c23, I 35 I 5,746 l===I======= I 1991 Request 1---------1--------------------1 I Amount I Sta I ($000) 1-----------------------------1 157 I 56 I 10 I 9 I 12 I 1 I 38 I 25 I I 200 I 4 I 3 I 98 I 1 I 1 6. Miscellaneous rent and coamunication inflation of 4.6%. I 1 7. Printing and supplies inflation of 7%. I 5 8. Facilities management wage determination and overhead costs. I 42 9. Other services inflation of 4.6%. I 13 10. Supplies and materials inflation of 4.6%. I 8 11. Equipment inflation 0 4.6%. I 12 I C. Program Type Changes I 1. Legislation I 0 2. Workload I (21) a. Non-recurring payroll conversion costs. I (30) b. Increased payroll service agreement cost. I 3 c. Increased Telenet service cost or payroll. I 6 3. Equipment, Alterations, Maintenance, Repairs, Etc. I 0 I II. Net Increase/Decrease Requested I 0 336 I III. Total Appropriation Request, 1991 I 35 6,082 I
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74 -13. 2. EXPLANATION OF CHANGES SHOWN ON SCHEDULE Cl F ,R DIVISION G Office of Technology Assessment General and Administration l-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 I EXPLANATION OF CHANGES SHOWN ON SCHEDULE ,; I l~=======~=~~~~~======~-~=I I 1. Merit increases and promotions averaging 3.5% agency-wide. I 56 I l------------------------------------------------------------------------1 ---------1--------------------1 I 2. Corresponding 3.5% increase in benefits which average 18% agency-I I I I wide associated with merit increases and promotions. I I 10 I l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I I 3. Miscellaneous cost increases including the annualization of I I I I FY '90 heal th increases plus planned FY '90 increases. I I 9 I 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I I 4. Annualization of cost-of-living adjustment effective January 1990. I I 12 I l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I J 5. Additional claim anticipated for unemployment compensation. I I 7 I 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I I 6. Impact of P.L. 101-194 on congressional pay and corresponding I I I I benefits. I I 38 I 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I I 7. Fifty percent of FY '91 cost-of-living adjustment effective Januaryl I I I 1991 per 0MB memorandum. I I 25 I l====~=~===========l~~l=======I IB, PRICE LEVEL CHANGES I Staff I Amount ($000) I 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I I 1. Travel related inflation rates of 5. OX applied to FY '90 J J I I base due to expected rise in plane fares and car rental costs. I I 4 I l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I I 2. Transportation services inflation rate of 4. 6X applied to I I I I FY '90 base. I I 3 I l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I I 3. Building lease escalation based on change in CPI-W for space, I I J I anticipated increases in taxes, and increases in operating costs I I I J due to union labor rate increases and planned building repairs. I I 98 I 1---------------------------------.-------------------------------------1-------1--------------------1 I 4. Copier services inflation rate of 4.6% applied to FY '90 base. I J 7 I 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I I 5. Telephone services inflation rate of 4.6% applied to FY '90 base. I I 7 I 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I I 6. Miscellaneous rent and cormrunication inflation rate of 4. 6% I I I I applied to FY '90 base. I I 1 I l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I I 7. Printing and supplies inflation rate of 7% (according to GPO I I I I Circular Letter No. 307 (dated April 28, 1989) applied to I I I I FY '90 base. I I 5 I 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I I 8. Estimated facilities management wage determination increases I J I J (based on Service Contract Labor Standard Act) and merit increases, I I J J for an average of 7. lX applied to the FY '90 base. I I 42 I 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I
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-75 -1-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I EXPLANATION OF CHANGES SHOWN ON SCHEDULE C 1------------------------~----~~-I 9. Other services inflation rate of 4.6% applied to FY '90 base for I purchase orders. J J 13 l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------1--------------------110. Supplies and materials inflation rate of 4.6% applied to FY '90 I I J base. I I 8 l------------------------------------------------------------------------l---------1--------------------111. Equipment (including furniture, permanent books, ADP equipment) I I I inflation rate of 4.6% applied to FY '90 base. I I 12 1-=----~--~--~=----~---=-----------lc. PROGRAM TYPE CHANGES I Staff I Amount ($000) l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I-------------------I 1. Legislation I I 0 l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------I 2. Workload J I I...................................................................... -I I I a. Non-recurring payroll/personnel conversion implementation costs J J (30) J b. Estimated increase for payroll/personnel service agreement costJ J 3 J c. Estimated increase for Telenet service for payroll/personnel I J system. J I 6 1------------------------------------------------------------------------I---------I--------------------I 3. Equipment, Alterations, Maintenance, Repairs, Etc. J I 0 l------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------I--------------------
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76 -13.3. Role of the General and Administration Division The General and Administration is divided into two main sections: the Office of the Director and the Operations Division. Included in the Office of the Director is OTA's Congressional and Public Affairs Office, which handles much of OTA's congressional and press liaison work, relations with the Technology Assessment Board, and relations with the Technology Assessment Advisory Council. The Operations Division comprises six main offices: Administrative Services handles all of OTA's security, contract, travel, and building services needs. Budget and Finance handles all of OTA's budget and financial affairs and maintains a financial database for the organization. The Information Center manages OTA's literature collection and handles all of OTA's requests for information services, including extensive computer search capabilities. The Personnel Office recruits personnel, processes incoming and outgoing OT A employees, maintains benefits and leave records, and handles employee needs. The Publishing Office is responsible for typesetting OTA reports and handling their progress through GPO, and provides editing and graphics services. It also maintains OT A's mailing lists and handles many requests for OTA publications. The Telecommunication and Information Systems Office coordinates installation, development, maintenance, and training for computer and telecommunications hardware and software.
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Schedule El 77 -13.4. STAFFING OF THE DIVISION Office of Technology Assessment General and Administration Direct and Indirect Employees l---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 I I Number of Employees I Dollars I I Classification I FY1989 FY1990E FY1991E I FY1989 FY1990E FY1991E I l--------------------------------------1----------I---------I---------I---------I---------I---------I I Staff Allocation I I I I I I I I (permanent positions) I 35 I 35 I 35 I I I I --------------------------------------1----------------------------------------------------1 I I 11.1 Full-Time Permanent I I Full-Time Permanent I 34 34 34 1,640 1,13s 1,s56 I Part-Time Permanent I 1 1 1 32 35 31 I I I 11.3 Other Than Full-Time Permanent I I Temporary I 2 1 1 19 26 21 I Intermittent/Consultants I 10 10 10 1 11 11 I I I I I 25.0 Other Services (Contracts I I for on-site personal services)l/l 19 16 16 635 593 635 I --------------------------------------1---------------------------1--------------------------1 1/ Includes individuals, whose services are obtained under contract with the individual or an organization, performing on-site services (in agency workspace) for six months or more during a twelve month period.
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-78 -14. Ten Year Quantitative Data Sche iule G l---------------------------------1--------I--------I--------I--------I--------I--------I--------I---------I------------------1 I ITEM I 1982 I 1983 I 1984 I 1985 I 1986 I 1987 I 1988 I 1989 I 1990E 1991E I l---------1--1--l--l--l~-l--l--l-~I~-~=I 111.1 FULL-TIME PERM. POSITIONS I 4,656 I 5,008 I 5,448 I 5,997 I 5,952 I 6,477 I 6,860 I 7,196 I 7,595 8,254 I l--.. ------------------------------1--------I--------I--------I--------I----------------1--------1---------1------------------1 111.3 OTHER THAN FULL-TIME PERM. I 775 I 1,241 I 1,590 I 2,005 I 1,700 1,538 I 1,747 I 1,687 I 2,096 2,214 I l---------------------------------1--------I--------I--------I--------I----------------1--------1---------------------------1 111 .SOTHERPERSONNELCOMP. ol ol ol ol O ol ol O O al I==-------------==l==-l=--1---1---===l===I==----= ===I I TOTAL PERSONNEL COMP. 5,431 I 6,249 I 7,038 I 8,002 I 7,652 8,015 I 8,607 I 8,883 9,691 10,468 I I 1---1---1---1----==l===I==== ------1 112.1 PERSONNEL BENEFITS 321 I 418 I 703 I 843 I 786 1,322 I 1,636 I 1,653 1,738 1,902 I 1-----------------------------------------l--------1--------1--------1---------------.1--------1---------------------------1 113.0 BENEFITS FOR FORMER PERS. 0 I O I O I 7 I 24 7 I 9 I 28 28 35 I 1-----------------------------------------1--------1--------1--------I----------------1--------1---------------------------1 121.0 TRAVEL AND TRAN. OF PERSONS 149 I 145 I 205 I 295 I 240 288 I 299 312 343 361 I 1-----------------------------------------l--------1--------1--------1--------I--------I-----------------------------------1 122.0 TRANS. OF THINGS 54 I 63 I 62 I 64 I 74 I 76 78 78 82 86 I 1-----------------------------------------l--------1--------1--------1--------I----------------------------------1---------1 123.0 COMMUN., UTILITIES & RENT I 1,131 I 1,096 I 1,042 I 1,248 I 1,215 I 1,476 1,684 1,943 2,017 I 2,136 I l---------------------------------1--------I--------I--------I--------I--------I----------------------------------1---------1 124.0 PRINTING AND REPRODUCTION I 586 I 464 729 I 294 I 608 I 508 686 536 586 I 629 I l---------------------------------1--------I----------------1--------1--------1----------------------------------1---------1 125.o OTHER SERVICES I 3,982 I 4,003 4,312 I 4,443 I 3,159 I 4,308 3,288 3,5os 3,287 I 4,258 I l---------------------------------1--------I----------------1--------1--------1----------------------------------1---------1 I 26. 0 SUPPLIES AND MATERIALS I 151 I 166 192 I 189 I 232 I 219 252 302 316 I 330 I l---------------------------------1--------I----------------1--------1--------1----------------------------------1---------1 I 31. 0 EQUIPMENT I 335 I 452 519 I 288 I 607 I 304 312 648 483 I 505 I l---------------------------------1--------I----------------1--------1--------1----------------1------------------1---------1 I 32. 0 LAND & STRUCTURES I O I O O I O I O I O O I O O I O I l---------------------------------1--------I----------------1--------1--------1----------------1------------------1---------1 141.0 GRANTS, SUBSIDIES & CONTRIB. I O I O O I O I O I O O I O O I O I l---------------------------------1--------I----------------l--------l--------1--------1--------1------------------1---------1 142.oINSURANCECLAIMS&INDF:!1. I ol o ol ol al al ol al ol al I l~=---1-=~=-=~=l==l==l===l==l===I ,==I -I I TOTAL OBLIGATIONS [ 12,140 [ 13,056 14,802 [ 15,673 [ 14,597 [ 16,523 [ 16,851 [ 17,891 [ 18,571 [ 20,710 [ 1~~------1--1=-=--l--l--l / I I 1~-l~=l==-I I No. oF REPORTS PUBLISHED (ll I 1s I 11 I 11 I 11 I '--l.8 1 \ 11 I :;__ __ 31 I ( 12 I 25 I 15 I I ---------------------------------1--------I --'----1--------1--------1----.----1----/--1--------J -------.. 1---------1---------1 INo. oF OTHER Docs PUBLISHED c2i I 1s I 22 I 1s I 21) ( 25 ,1 (-~4 I \ i"~ l ~I 15 I 20 I l---------------------------------1--------I--------I--------I------L-1----'"---l---~---I--------I---------I---------I---------I I TESTIMONY DELIVERED I 51 I 33 I 42 I 24 I 28 I 29 I 55 I 36 I 40 I 40 J I ---------------------------------1--------I--------I--------I-------I---~:.--1----~--, 1----:;;,-I ----;_----1---------1---------1 :NO. OF STAFF _PAPERS --------------l-N/A---l----,:~ _____ 1s -l----20 -l-- --~:. 'l---~-: ____ 0 J ______ 2 0 -1------25 _: INo. FULL-TIME PERM. POSITIONS I 129 I 12s I 139 I 143 I 136 I 143 I 143 I 143 I 143 I 143 I l---------------------------------1--------I--------I--------I--------I--------I--------I--------I---------I---------I---------I !OPERATING FULL-TIME PERMANENTS j 30 I 31 I 33 I 35 j 34 j 33 j 35 I 35 j 35 j 35 I l---------------------------------1--------I--------I--------I--------I--------I--------I--------I---------I---------I---------I I SUPPORT FULL-TIME PERMANENTS I 99 j 97 j 106 j 108 j 102 j 110 j 108 j 108 j 108 I 108 j l---------------------------------1--------I--------I--------I--------I--------I--------I--------I---------I---------I---------I IFULL-TIME PERM.S PER PRODUCTS (3)j l I 2 I l I 2 I 1 j 2 J l J 2 I 1 I l j l---------------------------------1--------I--------I--------I--------I--------I--------I--------I---------I---------I---------I
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14. (1) (2) (3) Ten Year Quantitative Data (Notes) 79 -Reports includes assessment reports and special reports. Other Reports includes special reports, report supplements, technical memoranda, background papers, case studies, workshop proceedings, and administrative documents. Full-time permanents per product provides the ratio of full-time, permanent staff to the total number of products delivered in a fiscal year.
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15. 11 OBJECT C1_ASS DEFINITIONS Personnel Compensation 80 Obligations for regular compensation of employees in full-time permanent positions or employees in po5'itions not included in full-time permanent positions, such as full-time and part-time tempvrary emP.loyees, part-time permanent employees, or public members of the OTA Advisory Council. Obligations for compensation for all appointed consultants who are paid at a daily rate when actually employed. 12 Personnel Benefits Obligations for required contributions to the Civil Service Retirement Fund, group life insurance, group health insurance, Medicare, and Social Security. 21 Travel Obligations for all travel expenses for OTA employees or others, whether paid to traveler or commercial transportation charges ( e.g., rental car). Included in this object class are obligations for transportation expenses incident to permanent change of station and per diem. 22 Transportation of Thin2s Obligations for transportation of things and for the care of such things while in the process of being transported, including General Services Administration for leasing and maintenance of the OTA delivery vehicles, U.S. Postal Service for penalty (franked) mail, Express Mail, services provided by USPS, private freight and mail services ( this does not include local delivery service), and transport of household furnishings associated with a permanent change of station. 23 Rent, Communication and Utilities Obligations to OTA's landlord for rental of office and parking space; rental of terminals, word processors, printers, and other computer hardware ( this does not include leased data phones); rental of Canon, Xerox, or other reproduction equipment; telegraph and teletype service; mail delivered by a messenger service (local delivery); C&P or other telephone companies for regular, WATS, telecopier, and data phone. 24 Printin2 and Reproduction Obligations to the Government Printing Office for reproduction or printing OTA reports for Congress; GPO or other vendors for printing of OTA letterhead, memo or note paper, and franked envelopes; graphics work done outside GPO for OTA reports and presentations ( e.g., photos, tables, charts, slides); GPO or other vendors for forms used by OTA (e.g., invoice, travel reimbursement, or anything having an OTA Standard Form or other form number); and GPO or a printing firm for OTA sharing the cost of printing a publication with another agency. 25 Other Services Obligations for contracts written for on-site (in-house) services. This includes individuals who are hired for a specified period of time to work on specific assessments or projects. In-house contractors are distinguished from other contractors because they occupy OTA work space, have access to OTA's support facilities, and work for more than six(6)
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-81 -person months in any twelve(12) month period. Also includes travel costs associated with in-house contractors as well as compensation and travel for detailees from other Government agencies. Obligations for services and reimbursement for expenses for members of advisory panels, task forces, working groups, etc. Also includes an allowance for other expenses associated with panel meetings and the preparation of special audiovisual materials such as slides, VU-graphs, charts or video tapes. Contractual services obligated by a contract or purchase order, including: (1) non in-house, nonpanel services associated with an OTA assessment, project, or office; (2) temporary secretarial services; (3) building maintenance or repairs when done by contract; ( 4) training and meeting registration; (5) court reporting; ( 6) equipment services not covered under rental agreement; (7) computerized information retrieval; (8) license fees for computer software packages; (9) printing and services of editors and proofreaders for OTA reports and brochures initiated by the Publications Office; (10) facilities management services; (11) maintenance agreements on ADP equipment; and (12) development of software when done by contract. 26 Supplies and Materials Obligations for supplies and materials that are ordinarily consumed or expended within one year after they are purchased or that are used to form a minor part of equipment or fixed property; subscriptions for journals, magazines, newspapers, etc.; pamphlets and leaflets or minor publications having an expected useful life of less than one year and that are not for the permanent collection; and ADP supplies (e.g., computer disks, tapes, or off-the-shelf software). 31 Equipment Obligations for personal property or equipment that is of a durable nature which normally may be expected to have a period of service of a year or more after purchase without material impairment of its physical condition, such as: (1) major purchased equipment and furnishings ( e.g., desks, chairs, file cabinets, tables, safes); (2) minor movable equipment for office use (e.g., calculators, typewriters); (3) computer equipment ( e.g., terminals, printers, tape drives, microprocessors, and modems; ( 4) audiovisual equipment ( e.g., cameras, televisions, movie or slide projector, videotape equipment); (5) books, bound reports, directories, etc., for OTA's (Information Services) permanent collection; and (6) charges for the initial installation of equipment when performed by the vendor. This object class consists of both non-capitalized equipment (purchase orders under $300) and capitalized equipment (unit cost of $300 or above).
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-82-16. Supplementacy Information A. Publications Printed and Delivered During Fiscal Year 1989 ............................ 83 B. Publication Information ........ ................................................................................... 93 C. Assessments In Progress and Related Information .............................................. 96 D. Other Services to the Congres:; ............................................................................... 132 1. Testimony ............................................................................................................. 132 2. Briefings ................................................................................................................ 136
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-83 -16.A. Publications Printed and Delivered During Fiscal Year 1989 Formal Assessment Reports TECHNOLOGIES TO DETECT PESTICIDE RESIDUES IN FOOD ........................ 84 INFORMING THE NATION: THE FUTURE OF PUBLIC ELECTRONIC PRINTING, PUBLISHING, AND DISSEMINATION ............................................. 84 ENHANCING THE QUALITY OF U.S. GRAIN IN INTERNATIONAL 'fRADE .......................................................................................... 84 GRAIN QUALITY IN INTERNATIONAL 'fRADE: A COMPARISON OF MAJOR U.S. COMPETITORS ............................................................................... 85 OIL PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGIES AND THE ARCTIC NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE ...................................................................................................... 85 HOLDING THE EDGE: MAINTAINING THE DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY BASE .................................................................................................... 85 ELECTRIC POWER WHEELING AND DEALING: TECHNOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR INCREASING COMPETITION .................................. 86 CATCHING OUR BREATH: NEXT STEPS FOR REDUCING URBAN OZONE .............................................................................................................. 86 POLAR PROSPECTS: A MINERALS TREATY FOR ANTARCTICA .................... 86 Interim Summaries FACING AMERICA'S TRASH: WHAT NEXT FOR MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE ................................................................................................................. 87 Special Reports SAFER SKIES WITH TCAS: TRAFFIC ALERT AND COLLISION AVOIDANCE SYSTEM ................................................................................................. 87 NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN BIOTECHNOLOGY: PATENTING LIFE .................. 87 ROUND TRIP TO ORBIT: ALTERNATIVES FOR HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT .... 88 Technical Memoranda ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY EDUCATION FOR SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING .................................................................................................... 88 Background Papers ISSUES IN MEDICAL WASTE MANAGEMENT .......................................................... 88 EVALUATION OF OPTIONS FOR MANAGING GREATER-THAN-CLASS-C LOW LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE ..................................................................... 88 ASSESSING CONTRACTOR USE IN SUPERFUND .................................................... 89 BIG DUMB BOOSTERS: A LOW COST TRANSPORTATION OPTION? ............. 89 HIGHER EDUCATION FOR SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING ................................ 89 HIGH SCHOOL VOCATIONAL EDUCATION: MEASURES OF PROGRAM PERFORMANCE .......................................................................................................... .. 89 TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER TO THE UNITED STATES: THE MIT-JAPAN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY PROGRAM ......................................................... 89 TECHNOLOGIES FOR REDUCING DIOXIN IN THE MANUFACTURE OF BLEACHED WOOD PULP .................................................................................... 90 BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF POWER FREQUENCY ELECTRIC AND MAGNETIC FIELDS ...................................................................................................... 90 COMPETITION IN COASTAL SEAS: AN EVALUATION OF FOREIGN MARITIME ACTIVITIES IN THE 200-MILE EEZ ................................................. 90 ADOLESCENT HEALTH INSURANCE STATUS: ANALYSES OF TRENDS IN COVERAGE AND PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES OF THE EFFECTS OF AN EMPLOYER MANDATE AND MEDICAID EXPANSION ON THE UNINSURED ................................................................................................... 90 STATISTICAL NEEDS FOR A CHANGING U.S. ECONOMY .................................. 91 Staff Papers ..................................................................................................................................... 91 Administrative Documents ........................................................................................................... 92
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84 -16.A. Publications Printed and Delivered Durin~ Fiscal Year 1989 Formal Assessment Reports TECHNOLOGIES TO DETECT PESTICIDE RESIDUES IN FOOL October 1988 This OTA project examined: 1) existing and emerging technique.; for residue analysis of high health hazard pesticides and their breakdown products b food; 2) techniques for automating such analyses, particularly those techniquef:I that are inexpensive; 3) methods for validation procedures; and 4) possible combh:ations of techniques that the government, in particular FDA, could use to improve its ability to identify and quantify pesticide residues and associated breakdown products in food. Requested by: House Committee on Agriculture, and the Subcommittee on Domestic Marketing, Consumer Relations, and Nutrition, and the Subcommittee on Operations, Research and Foreign Agriculture House Committee on Energy and Commerce, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry INFORMING THE NATION: THE FUTURE OF PUBLIC October 1988 ELECTRONIC PRINTING, PUBLISHING AND DISSEMINATION This study: identifies and describes the current institutional base for federal dissemination of public information; assesses the current technological base and relevant future technological developments; evaluates present and future public information needs and how technology might help meet such needs; and identifies and analyses key issues and options. These include, for example, possible future public information roles of the Government Printing Office, executive agencies, libraries, and private firms; policies for public access to and dissemination of federal information, including policies on the depository library and statistical systems; and opportunities for innovative use of information technology in, for example, electromc remote printing of federal reports, electronic access to federal data bases used in decision support systems, and scientific and technical information exchange. Requested by: Joint Committee on Printing House Committee on Government Operations, Subcommittee on Government Information, Justice, and Agriculture House Committee on Science, Space and Technology ENHANCING THE QUALITY OF U.S. GRAIN IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE February 1989 The study provided information on: 1) competitive problems the U.S. faces in international grain markets attributed to grain quality; 2) the extent to which U.S. grain handling technologies and quality standards have contributed to declining grain sales; 3) differences in grain-handling technology and export quality standards between the U.S. and competitor countries; 4) consequences to exporters and farmers of changes in grain handling technologies and quality standards; and 5) feasibility of utilizing new technology to better classify grains.
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-85 Requested by: Mandated in Food Security Act of 1985 House Committee on Agriculture, and the Subcommittee on Department Operations, Research, and Forei~n Agriculture Joint Economic Comrmttee GRAIN QUALITY IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE: A COMPARISON OF MAJOR U.S. COMPETITORS February 1989 The study assessed the ~ain systems of Argentina, Brazil, Canada, France, and Australia. It includes an overview of each country's production and markets, technologies for producing and handling grain, quality control programs and incentives, and government policies. Requested by: Mandated in Food Security Act of 1985 House Committee on Agriculture, and the Subcommittee on Department Operations, Research, and Forei~n Agriculture Joint Economic Comrmttee OIL PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGIES AND THE ARCTIC NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE March 1989 This study examined recent projections of future Alaskan oil production, to the extent possible evaluated the accuracy of these estimates, and evaluated the potential for shifts in future production rates with technology development and changing economic conditions and regulatory requirements. As part of this evaluation, OTA examined the evolution of technology for Arctic onshore and offshore oil exploration, development, production, and transportation over the past 15 years and proJected how the state of the art might evolve over the next several decades. Requested by: Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources House Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries HOLDING THE EDGE: MAINTAINING THE DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY BASE May 1989 This study: 1) analyzes the factors behind outstanding concerns; 2) describes and analyzes how the defense technology base is managed and how relevant policy is made, and identifies options for Congress to improve this process; 3) describes and analyzes the relation between defense and commercial sectors of selected high technology industries; 4) describes and analyzes how R&D investment decisions are made in other government agencies, selected major companies, and selected foreign countries, and deduce what DOD might find useful in these approaches; and 5) identifies the strengths and weaknesses of the defense technology base, suggesting policy options to exploit the strengths and remedy the weaknesses. Requested by: Senate Committee on Armed Services, and the Subcommittee on Defense Industry and Technology
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86 -ELECTRIC POWER WHEELING AND DEALING: May 1989 TECHNOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR INCREASING COMPETITION This assessment responds to Congressional requests that OTA focus on the technological factors constraining as well as encouraging competition in the electric power industry. This assessment focuses on the wheeling issue as well as a number of other issues, including the impact of dispersed generation on system operation, control, and planning. Also of concern are the associated regulatory, environmental, and economic questions. Requested by: House Committee on Energy and Commerce, and the Subcommittee on Energy and Power House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs, and the Subcommittee on Water and Power Resources CATCHING OUR BREATH: July 1989 NEXT STEPS FOR REDUCING URBAN OZONE This study finds that by the year 2000, much of our Nation will still not meet the air quality goals Congress estabhshed in 1970. Over the next 5 to 7 years, available technology can bring into compliance only about half of all areas that now fail to attain the standard for ozone, the toughest air pollutant to control. Existing control methods can substantially improve the air quality of the other half of the areas, but meeting the ozone standard in these areas will require new, innovative, and nontraditional control methods. Congress will have to set programs into motion now if new cost-effective control methods are to be available by the year 2000. No single new control method will work in all areas, thus Congress would be wise to pursue several approaches simultaneously. Requested by: Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works House Committee on Energy and Commerce, and the Subcommittee on Health and the Environment POLAR PROSPECTS: A MINERALS TREATY FOR ANTARCTICA September 1989 This report should assist legislators in their deliberations on ratifying the new Convention on the Regulation of Antarctic Mineral Resource Activities because it: 1) explains and analyzes the provisions of the Convention; 2) assesses what is known about the type and amount of resources in Antarctica; 3) evaluates the likelihood of future development in Antarctica from economic and technological perspectives; 4) assesses potential environmental problems related to Antarctic mineral resource development; 5) provides the background information needed to consider the Convention within the context of overall U.S. interests in Antarctica; and 6) identifies and assesses new responsibilities for U.S. government agencies. Requested by: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Senate Committee on Foreign Relations House Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries, and the Subcommittee on Oceanography, and the Subcommittee on Fisheries, Wildlife, Conservation and the Environment House Committee on Foreign Affairs
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87 Interim Summaries FACING AMERICA'S TRASH; WHAT NEXT FOR MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE June 1989 (Full Assessment released 11/89) Americans are generating more than half a ton of municipal solid waste per person each year and running out of places to put it. Yet no clear Federal policy exists to address the steadily growing problems of trash, according to OTA's findings. Primary responsibility for MSW management rests with State and local governments. The report concludes that the Federal government can helP. by addressing some immediate problems such as finishing regulations for management facilities and addressing interstate transportation issues, and also by taking on the longer term issue of how society uses and disposes of materials and products. Early Release Requested by: House Committee on Energy and Commerce House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Special Reports SAFER SKIES WITH TCAS: TRAFFIC ALERT AND COLLISION AVOIDANCE SYSTEM February 1989 This report concludes that airline resource limitations, economic inequities, and international problems complicate the present deadline requiring that most commercial passenger aircraft be equipped by December 1991 with newly-developed technologies (TCAS II) designed to prevent midair collisions. The study further finds that aviation safety will benefit most from inducing TCAS II on a substantial number of commercial aircraft as soon as possible, by requiring a phased implementation schedule, and by providing for a structured evaluat10n program carried out jointly by industry and the FAA to oversee the implantation phase and first year of operation. Requested by: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, Subcommittee on Aviation House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology House Committee on Public Works and Transportation, Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN BIOTECHNOLOGY: PATENTING LIFE March 1989 This special report (fifth in a series) reviews United States patent law as it relates to the patentab1li!>7 of rmcro-organisms, cells, plants, and animals; as well as specific areas of concern, includmg deposit requirements and international considerations. This report includes a range of options for congressional action related to the patenting of animals, intellectual property protection for plants, and enablement of patents involving biological material.
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-88 -J ~equested by: House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology House Committee on Energy and Commerce Senate Committee on the Budget Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, Subcommittee on Toxic Substances and Environmental Oversight ROUND TRIP TO ORBIT: August 1989 Al TERNA TIVES FOR HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT This report examines a wide ran$e of potential improvements to the Space Shuttle, explores the future of space transportat10n for humans, and presents policy options for congressional consideration. It is one of a series of products from a broad assessment of space transportation technologies. The report points out that the United States can look forward to continued improvements in safety, reliability, and performance of the Shuttle system. Yet, early in the next century, the Nation will need a replacement for the Shuttle. Requested by: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Technical Memoranda ELEMENTARYANDSECONDARYEDUCATIONFOR SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING December 1988 This study supplements and extends OTA's June 1988 report, Educating Scientists and Engineers: Grade School to Grad School. The Federal Government plays a key role in sustaining educational excellence in elementary and secondary education, providing effective research, and encouraging change. This memorandum identifies pressure points in the system and strengthens the analytical basis for policy. Background Papers ISSUES IN MEDICAL WASTE MANAGEMENT October 1988 This background paper was an interim deliverable of the Municipal Solid Waste Management study. Recent beach washups of medical wastes are symptoms of the confusing, inconsistent and inadequate regulations of these wastes. The paper suggests clarification of federal policy as a first step to providing the guidance states need to develop or revise their programs for managing medical wastes. A lead federal agency, mostly likely EPA, needs to clarify and develop the Federal definition, classification and regulation of medical wastes. EVALUATION OF OPTIONS FOR MANAGING October 1988 GREATER-THAN-CLASS-CLOW LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE An interim deliverable of the Managing Low-Level Radioactive Waste assessment, this report examines the fact that several thousand users of radioactive material have no place to dispose of waste categorized as greater-than-Class C (GTCC), the most
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-89 radioactive type of "low-level" radioactive waste. The GTCC waste must be stored where it is generated. On-site storage capacity is shrinking and some will run out of room within ten years. Although stora~e space i!. being developed for GTCC waste, a decision about its permanent disposal will need to be made. Due to the relatively high levels of radioactivity found in this waste, a technically conservative option would be to permanently isolate it in a deep-geologic repository, as is proposed for commercial spent fuel and defense high-level waste. ASSESSING CONTRACTOR USE IN SUPERFUND February 1989 This paper discusses the extent of contractor use in Superfund, and explains why the original reasons for BP A's heavr dependence on contractors may no longer be valid. Also included in the paper are some ideas for improving the environmental performance and economic efficiency of Superfund over the long term. BIG DUMB BOOSTERS: February 1989 A LOW COST TRANSPORTATION OPTION? The controversial "Big Dumb Booster" concept for reducing the costs of launching payloads to space is the subject of this interim deliverable which is part of the ongoing assessment of space transportation technologies. In the Big Dumb Booster concept, the first stage of a launch vehicle is designed to be simple to build and operate; with the complexity confined to the lighter upper stages. Because technology has advanced considerably since the 1960's when the concept was first introduced, specific designs that might then have been the minimum-cost solution are not today's minimum-cost solution. Further engineering studies and hardware tests with current technology would be required to prove whether or not a Bi~ Dumb Booster would save money on launch costs. The paper offers several alternative approaches for resolving the controversy surrounding the usefulness of Big Dumb Boosters. HIGHER EDUCATION FOR SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING March 1989 The paper addresses the issue of the future supply of scientists and engineers in the broad cultural context of changing demographics, labor market adjustments, and intervention policies. This interim deliverable (part of the larger project, Educating Scientists and Engineers: Grade School to Grad School) focuses on undergraduate and graduate study, the end point of educational preparation for science and engineering careers. It analyzes the distinctive and the common characteristics of undergraduates in science, graduate education and the university, and engineering education in the United States. HIGH SCHOOL VOCATIONAL EDUCATION: April 1989 MEASURES OF PROGRAM PERFORMANCE To assist Congress in reauthorization of the Carl D. Perkins Vocational Education Act, the House Committee on Education and Labor asked OTA to explore the possibility of instituting specific requirements for performance measurement of the Nation's secondary school vocational programs. This background paper examines the technical feasibility and utility of performance standards based on labor market indicators and on scores of occupational competency tests, and looks at other possible measures as well. TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER TO THE UNITED STA TES: April 1989 THE MIT-JAPAN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY PROGRAM This interim deliverable was prepared as part of the ongoing assessment on Technology, Innovation and U.S. Trade, requested by the Committee on Banking, Finance
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-90-and Urban Affairs, U.S. House of Representatives, and the Committees on Finance and on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate. This background paper is composed mainly of the report of a workshop held jointly by OTA and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The workshop discussed two projects of MITs Japan Science and Technology Pro~ram: 1) an internship pro:gram, in which MIT arranges for some of its graduate engmeers to work one or two years in industry, university, or government laboratories in Japan; and 2) a summer workshop in technical Japanese, held at MIT, in which technically trained people with some Japan-ese language skills can improve their ability to read Japanese technical literature in their own fields. The workshop explored the experiences of the interns in Japan and exami'led the extent to which these experiences proved useful after they returned to the United States. TECHNOLOGIES FOR REDUCING DIOXIN IN THE MANUFACTURE OF BLEACHED WOOD PULP June 1989 The release of EP A's National Dioxin Study in 1987 focused attention on evidence that showed a pattern of dioxin concentrations in stream bottom sediment and fish below pulp mill waste outfalls. Subsequent studies by the paper industries and government agencies in North America and Europe have confirmed that detectable amounts of TCDD and TCDF aredroduced and released into the environment at many bleached kraft pulp mills. Bleache wood pulp is used in paper products such as writing and printing papers, food packaging and a mynad of other products. This background paper reviews what is known about the production and fate of TCDD and TCDF and other associated chlorinated compounds during the course of pulp bleaching and brightening, and also assesses the technologies available to reduce contamination should regulation be necessary. BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF POWER FREQUENCY ELECTRIC AND MAGNETIC FIELDS June 1989 The study was performed as a part of OTA's assessment Electric Power Wheeling and Dealing: Technological Considerations for Increasing Competition. The Subcommittee on Water and Power Resources of the House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs asked that OTA review the health effects of high-voltage transmissions lines. This report discusses the present state of knowledge on the health effects of lowfrequency electric and magnetic fields and describes current U.S. funding levels and research programs. Also, the report provides information on regulatory activity, including existing and proposed field exposure standards. COMPETITION IN COASTAL SEAS: AN EVALUATION July 1989 OF FOREIGN MARITIME ACTIVITIES IN THE 200-MILE EEZ The House Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries asked the OTA to evaluate the costs and benefits of extending Cabotage laws to other maritime activities in the 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The purpose of the study was to determine whether legislation to extend the laws could help the domestic industry without causing other economic distortions. OTA has found that changes in Cabotage laws to either extend their coverage to a greater area (such as to the EEZ) or to other maritime activities (such as offshore oil services) would result in only minimal changes in the way business is conducted. ADOLESCENT HEALTH INSURANCE STATUS: ANALYSES OF August 1989 TRENDS IN COVERAGE AND PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES OF THE EFFECTS OF AN EMPLOYER MANDATE AND MEDICAID EXP ANSI ON ON THE UNINSURED This background paper is the first publication in OTA's ongoing assessment of adolescent health. Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau, OTA estimated the potential
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-91-effects of legislation Congress is now considering in order to reduce the number of uninsured adolescents. The study finds that to a large extent, the problems of uninsured adolescents are the problems of uninsured parents. STATISTICAL NEEDS FOR A CHANGING U.S. ECONOM~~ September 1989 In 1988 the Office of Technology Assessment published Technology and the American Transition outlining ways that new technologies have redefined options for stimulating economic growth. Several Committees of the Congress have asked OT A to step back from its analysis of specified technologies and describe the combined effect of the changes on the living standards of different American households, on jobs, and on America's position in the world economy. These questions required OTA to address some very basic questions about the way the economy operates and could operate in the future. The research made extensive use of statistical series from many private and public sources. In many cases standard statistical measures failed to indicate important dimensions of change. The background paper does not attempt to provide a comprehensive critique of national statistics and does not introduce new research designed to solve the technical problems. It is, instead, designed to show how defects in the existing statistical system can limit our understanding of key economic issues and to demonstrate the ways that better management and coordination of America's statistical agencies can lead to concrete improvements. Staff Papers Screening for Open-Angle Glaucoma in the Elderly Appropriate Care for Cataract Surgery Patients Before and After Surge:ry Report on OTA Workshop on Medical Fellow-Up Agency Potential Biolofical and Electronic Effects of Empress III OTA Review o Women Vietnam Veterans Health Study Review of The Columbia Health UniversityAmerican Legion Vietnam Veterans Study S&T for Develoment: Special Response for the Congressional Task Force on Foreign Assistance Costs and Effectiveness of Cholesterol Screening in the Elderly Review of the Department of Energy Weaons Complex Modernization Plan: Envtronmental Issues Analysis of the Range of Institutional Options Available to House a Proposed National Center for Biological Diversity and Conservation OT A Analysis of Program Proposed by Senator Stafford to Control Emissions of CO2 SO2 and NO Defining Rural Areas x Advanced Vehicle/Highway Systems and Urban Traffic Problems Review of DoE Modernization Plan: Issues Surrounding Proposed Termination, Relocation and Consolidation of Activities at Certain Facilities in the Department of Energy Nuclear Weapons Complex Analysis of Selected Mobile Source Provisions in HR 3030 and HR 2323 Response to Sen. Bryan's request for Information Concerning S.1224 Addendum to: "Analysis of Selected Mobile Source Provisions in HR 3030 and HR 2323" First Quarter, FY 1989 First Quarter, FY 1989 First Quarter, FY 1989 First Quarter, FY 1989 First Quarter, FY 1989 Second Quarter, FY 1989 Second Quarter, FY 1989 Third Quarter, FY 1989 Third Quarter, FY 1989 Third Quarter, FY 1989 Third Quarter, FY 1989 Fourth Quarter, FY 1989 Fourth Quarter, FY 1989 Fourth Quarter, FY 1989 Fourth Quarter, FY 1989 Fourth Quarter, FY 1989 Fourth Quarter, FY 1989
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ASSESSMENT ACTIVITIES ASSESSMENT ACTIVITIES ANNUAL REPORT OTA PUBLICATIONS LIST OTA INFORMATION REPORT ASSESSMENT ACTIVITIES ASSESSMENT ACTIVITIES -92-Administrative Documer ls First Quarter, FY 1989 Second Quarter, FY 1989 Second Quarter, FY 1989 Second Quarter, FY 1989 Second Quarter, FY 1989 Third Quarter, FY 1989 Fourth Quarter, FY 1989
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16.B. Publication Information Requests for OTA Publications -93 -During fiscal year 1989, OTA's Publishing Office processed almost 14,000 telephone and mail requests. This total does not reflect additional requests that were processed by OTA program offices and the OTA Con$fessional and Public Affairs Office. A majority of the non-congressional re9.uests received m the Publishing Office were ref erred to the U.S. Government Printing Office or the National Technical Information Service for purchase of OTA documents. The Publishing Office processed requests from congressional offices for multiple copies of many of OT A's reports. The largest number of congressional requests for publications were for: Seismic Verification of Nuclear Testin& Treaties Enhancina: Amculture in Africa: A Role of Development Assistance Pesticide Residues in Food: Technolo&ties for Detection Informin2 the Nation: Federal Information Dissemination in an Electronic A2e Power On! New Tools for Teachin2 and Learnin2 Gearin2 Up for Safety: Motor Carrier Safety in a Competitive Environment The U.S. Textile and Apparel Industry: A Revolution in Proi:ress The Quality of Medical Care: Information for Consumers TechnoloK.Y and the American Economic Transition: Choices for the Future SDI: TechnoloK.Y, Survivability, and Software Summary: TechnoloK.Y and A&tini: in America Summary: Wastes in Marine Environment Summary: Serious Reduction of Hazardous Waste Summary: Ocean Incineration: Its Role in Mana2in2 Hazardous Waste New Developments in BiotechnoloKY: Patentin2 Life Assessin2 Contractor Use in Superfund Holdin2 the Ed2e: Maintainin2 the Defense Technolo2.f Base Catchin& Our Breath: Next Steps for Reducina: Urban Ozone Are We Cleanin& Up? 10 Superfund Case Studies Biolo&tical Effects of Power Frequency Electric and Ma1metic Fields Multiple copies of OTA reports and summaries were also requested by various government agencies and private organizations, including: The Aerospace Corporation; California Rural Indian Health Board; Department of Health and Human Resources; U.S. Department of Education; American Council on Aging; Departments of State, Transportation, Labor, and Energy; Federal Aviation Administration; National Forest Service; National Bureau of Standards; American Library Association; Bureau of the Census; U.S. Information Agency; National Regulatory Council; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; General Accounting Office; Indian Health Service; several State environmental agencies, school districts, libraries, and law firms; and many universities and colleges. The Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office reprinted 11 OTA titles (two titles were reprinted twice) during the fiscal year. Publications reprinted included: New Developments in Biotechnolo&Y: U.S. Investment in Biotechnolo2,Y Are We Cleanin& Up? 10 Superfund Case Studies
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94 Power On! New Tools for Teachin2 and Learnin2 (2 reprints) Gearin& Up for Safety; Motor Carrier Safety in a Competitive Environment Informin2 the Nation: Federal Information Dissemination in an Electronic A2e Pesticide Residues in Food; Technolo&ies for Detection New Developments in Biotechnolo2,Y; Patentin2 Life Issues in Medical Waste Mana2ement Holdin2 the Ed&e; Maintainin2 the Defense Technolo2.f Base Bioioa;cal Effects of Power Frequency Electric and Ma1metic Fields (2 reprints) Electric Power Wheelin2 and Dealin2; Technolo&ical Considerations for Increasin& Competition Private Sector Reprinting of OTA Publications OTA publications are often selected by commercial publishers or private organizations for reprinting. For example: Hemisphere Publishing Corp. (New York, NY) reprinted: Elementary and Secondary Education for Science and Ena;neerin2 Marcel Dekker, Inc. (New York, NY) reprinted: New Developments in Biotechnolo2.f: Patentin2 Life Technomic Publishing Co., Inc. (Lancaster, PA) reprinted: Power On! New Tools for Teachin2 and Learnin2 Pesticide Residues in Food: Technolo&ies for Detection Educatin2 Scientists and Ena;neers: Grade School to Grad School IPPNW Publications Committee (Concord, MA) reprinted: Summary: SDI: Technolo2.f, Survivability, and Software American Nursing Association (Kansas City, MO) reprinted: HCS #37: Nurse Practitioners, Physician Assistants, and Certified Nurse-Midwives: A Policy Analysis National Diet Library (Tokyo, Japan) translated and reprinted: Book Preservation Technolo2ies Kyoikusha Publishing, Ltd. (Tokyo, Japan) translated and reprinted: Mappin2 Our Genes--Genome Projects: How BiK, How Fast? Mir Publishers (Moscow, Russia) translated and reprinted: Seismic Verification of Nuclear Testin2 Treaties Clean Japan Center (Tokyo, Japan) translated and reprinted: Summary: Facin2 America's Trash: What Next for Municipal Solid Waste (Interim Summary) Other organizations also requested the use of photographs and illustrations from OTA publications to be used in articles, including: Optical Society of America, Washington, DC (article of Preparin2 for Science and En2ineerin2 Careers)
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-95 -Mathematical Sciences Education Board, Washington, DC (article on Educatin2 Scientists and En2ineers; Grade School to Grad School) Nephrology News, Huntington Beach, CA (article on Life-Sustainin2 Technoloeies and the Elderly) U.S. General Accounting Office, Washington, DC (information from Acid Rain and Transported Air Pollutants; Implications for Public Policy) National Education Association, Washington, DC (article on Summary: Power On! New Tools for Teachin2 and Learnin2) Industrial Marketing Group, Wilton, CT (information from Commercializin2 Hi2h Temperature Superconductivity to be used in a book on "Commercial Opportunities for Superconductivity") FCB Associates, Washington, DC (information from Educatin2 Scientists and Eneineers: Grade School to Grad School to be used in a study conducted for the Air Force Association) Harry N. Abrams, Inc., New York, NY (information from Biolo2,Y, Medicine, and the Bill of Riehts to be used in a book on "Great Scientific Illustrations") JFK School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA (information from Informin2 the Nation: Federal Information Dissemination in an Electronic A2e to be used as classroom material) Brandeis University, Waltham, MA (information from Technolo2,Y and the American Economic Transition: Choices for the Future to be used as material for a college textbook entitled ''The Sociology of Health and Illness") College of Law, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (information from Infertility: Medical and Social Choices and Artifical Insemination: Practices in the United States, Summary of a 1987 Survey to be used as classroom material in U.S. law schools) New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, New Mexico (information from Alternatives to Animal Use in Research, Testin2, and Education to be used in a seminar on "Animal Welfare Training" Kodansha Scientific Ltd., Tokyo, Japan (information from New Developments in Biotechnolo2.r: Field-Testin2 En2ineerin2 Or2anisms: Genetic and Ecolo2ical Issues to be translated and reprinted in a book entitled "Safety in Biotechnology")
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-96-16.C. Assessments in Pro~ess as of October 1. 1989, and Related Legislation A In Press on October 1. 1989 Coming Clean: Superfund's Problems Have Solutions Superfund started out in 1980 as a short-term crash cleanup effort. By 1985, when Congress debated reauthorizing Superfund for a second 5 years, it had become controversial and confrontational. This study assesses the critical early site evaluation phases of the Superfund program, the technical quality of the remedy selection process, and the impacts on Superfund of the many other cleanup programs that, along with Superfund, cope with national cleanup needs. The assessment report presents 38 policy options that Congress may wish to consider to improve the Superfund program. The 38 policy options, which can be considered separately or in a number of combinations, are divided into two categories: nineteen strategic imtiatives, which would be major new directions in the program, any significant number of which would result in program restructuring; and nineteen program changes, which are more modest in scope and which could be integrated into the existing program. Both strate~ic and program change options are grouped in three areas: (1) setting cleanup pnorities and goals; (2) developing workers and technology; (3) improving government management. OTA concluded that Superfund has not yet balanced protection of public health and environment against constraints of information, technology, time, and money very well. The result is that controversy and confrontation remain. The study found that Superfund still lacks: 1) a carefully crafted strategy with implementation policies to spell out environmental priorities and goals; 2) an effective partnership among government, site communities, and private sector ?arties responsible for cleanup; and 3) a unified national infrastructure of education, traimng, databases, research, and development. Unless serious consideration is soon given to making fundamental changes in the structure and policies of the Superfund prograi through strategic initiatives, OTA's assessment is that significant risks to public health and environment will remain poorly managed, public expectations will remain unmet, and public confidence will worsen. Fine tuning or incremental program changes are feasible and necessary too, but they alone will probably not suffice. Possible Impact on Legislation: Given the status of Superfund legislation, committees have focused on oversight during the 101st Congress. Hearings with OTA participation were held by: Senate Committee on Government Affairs, Subcommittee on Federal Services, Post Office, and Civil Service (Feb. 3, 1989); Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, Subcommittee on Superfund, Ocean, and Water Protection (May 10, 1989); House Committee on Public Works and Transportation, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigation (Oct. 31, 1989); House Committee on Government Operations, Subcommittee on Environment, Energy, and Natural Resources (Nov. 7, 1989) Interim Publications: "Are We Cleaning Up? 10 Superfund Case Studies" (SR), published June 1988; "Assessing Contractor Use in Superfund" (BP), published January 1989 Project Director: Joel Hirschhorn, 228-6361 Estimated Publication Date: Published October 1989 Requested by: House Committee on Energy and Commerce; House Committee on Public Works and Transportation; Senate Subcommittee on Superfund and Environmental Oversight
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97 -The Containment of Under~ound Nuclear Explosions A major objective in the underground testing of nuclear weapons is to ensure that radioactive material is not released into the atmosphere. Recent incidents of small leaks into the tunnel system and the unexpected formation of a collapsed crater have created concern over whether adequate safeguards are being maintained. This study will address the technical aspects of preventing and monitoring the accidental release of radioactive material during nuclear testing. In particular, the study will examine: 1) whether current geologic considerations are sufficiently conservative to ensure that rock fractured during a nuclear explosion does not result in the release of radioactive materials; and 2) whether the monitoring networks are sufficiently capable to assess radiation leaks at levels that might cause health effects. Project Director: Alan Shaw, 228-6443 Estimated Publication Date: Published November 1989 Requested by: House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs Copyright and Home Copying: Technology Challenges the Law According to some, unauthorized duplication of copyrighted works in the home deprives copyright owners of revenue and may, in the long run, undermine the economic viability of copyright-dependent industries. Although copyright is traditionally a private right privately enforced, Congress has, for the last several years, been attempting to formulate solutions to the perceived problem of unauthonzed duplication. The main focus of this study is on the imract of home audio taping on the recording industry, with attention to the broader context o home copying issues, which either are, or will soon be, facing other copyright-dependent industnes (e.g., home video). The study built on the findings of a 1986 OTA assessment, Intellectual Property Rights in an Age of Electronics and Information, which documented fundamental problems for the law of copyright in accommodating new developments in communication and information technologies, and which anticipated the specific issues now facing the recording industry. Key Contact: Joan Winston, 228-6760 Estimated Publication Date: Published October 1989 Requested by: House Committee on the Judiciary and its Subcommittee on Courts, Civil Liberties, and the Administration of Justice; Senate Committee on the Judiciary and its Subcommittee on Patents, Copyrights, and Trademarks Facing America's Trash: What Next for Municipal Solid Waste? Early in 1987, a barge loaded with garbage went on a long odyssey in search of a home for its cargo. This infamous voyage focused attention on a growing problem, the management of municipal solid waste (primarily from residences, businesses, and institutions). Currently, 85 percent of municipal solid waste is sent to landfills. Some landfills, however, have been closed, and many more will reach full capacity during the next decade. Developing new landfills has been difficult because of lack of available land, environmental nsks, public opposition, and increasing regulation. Munici?alities are considering other options, particularly incineration and recycling. Public opposition to incineration has increased, however, because of concerns about costs and environmental and health risks. Some people contend that incineration should only be used after waste reduction and recycling programs are fully implemented. High rates of
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-98 recycling, however, h;:.ve not been achieved on a wide-spread scale, and little effort has been devoted to waste reduction, particularly how to remove those pollutants or products that can cause harm when incinerated or landfilled. OTA evaluat~d how different technologies for reducing and managing municipal solid waste can be us'!d in an environmentally safe and cost-effective long-term strategy. The assessment examined: 1) composition and amounts of municipal solid waste; 2) opportunities for waste reduction (i.e., reducing generation of municipal solid waste or eliminatin~ harmful pt,llutants from its components); 3) technologies and capacities for recycling, mcineration, and landfilling; 4) comparative costs of different options; 6) international experiences; and 7) the future of municipal solid waste policies (policy options). In addition, medical waste management practices and related policy issues were addressed as part of the assessment. Medical wastes, although a relatively small portion of the municiJ?al solid waste stream, are increasingly incidents of illegal or improper disposal and potential health risks from waste materials associated with the treatment of AIDS and other infectious diseases. A separate staff paper was issued on this topic and it identified current practices and potential risks associated with them and assesses the need for further Federal requirements for the handling, treatment, storage, and disposal of medical wastes. Possible Impact on Legislation: There were about 40 bills related to municipal solid waste introduced in the 101st Congress. Most of these are likely to become part of the overall RCRA reauthorization process. Associated Publication: "Issues in Medical Waste Management" (BP), published October 1988 Project Director: Howard Levenson, 228,6856 Estimated Publication Date: Published November 1989 Requested by: Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works; House Committee on Energy and Commerce; House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Linking for Leaming: A New Course for Education New curriculum requirements, shortages of qualified teacliers in some subjects, sparse student enrollment m some regions, and rising costs for educational services contribute to an increasing need for effective methods for providing instruction. At the same time, advances in telecommunications and computer technology are making it possible to combine and transmit video images, sound, and data, enabling teachers and students to overcome physical and geographic limitations. These systems can broaden the variety and range of instructional programs available to students in remote locations, distribute educational resources more evenly among all students, and provide improved teacher development opportunities. Although telecommunications technologies are already being used extensively for education and training in higher education and business, distance learning projects at the K-12 level currently reach only a small proportion of students and cover limited curricula. Learning opportunities could be expanded to include remote learners of all types, both in the K-12 classroom and in the home. A growing number of State, regional, and local efforts, as well as the Federal Star Schools Program, can expand opportunities for learning at a distance. While responsibility for instruction resides with State and local agencies, distance learning projects often cross these boundaries and raise questions of concern to all policymakers. What are effective uses of distance learning? What resources are required? How are varying local, State, and regional needs being met? What funding, financial, and institutional arrangements are possible? National interest in improving the quality of
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-99 education, increasingly effective interactive technologies, and limited resources make this an issue of strong congressional interest. This study: 1) analyzed various technological options, their costs, effectiveness, and tradeoffs, in the K-12 school setting; 2) examined distance delivery systems in terms of financing and organizational arrangements, curriculum, teacher certification, student evaluation, new roles for teachers and students, and altering traditional boundaries; and 3) identified changes in Federal, State, and local roles and policies to encourage more efficient and effective use of technology for distance learning. Possible Impact on Legislation: It is very likely that the following bill will incorporate some of OTA's findings: S. 1036, the Rural Partnerships Act of 1989, which is designed to improve the economic, community, and educational well being of rural America. OT A's work is particularly relevant to Section 201 of the act, which provides for the rural Star Schools education opportunities pro~ram. In addition, OTA testified at an October hearing on scientific, technical, and literacy education and training, during consideration of H.R. 3122, the Scientific and Technological Literacy Act of 1989, which includes programs to improve high school and grade school science and mathematics curricula, literacy education, and technician training at community colleges. Project Director: Linda Roberts 228-6936 Estimated publication date: Published November 1989 Requested by: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources; House Committee on Education and Labor B. Under TAB Review on October 1, 1989 Forensic Uses of DNA Tests Genetic tests can be used to establish identity of individuals and to test for genetic relatedness between individuals. In the past 5 years, such tests have attained new power and found applications in criminal and civil law. Tests that directly measure the presence of DNA markers can be used, for example, to identify blood or hair samples left at the scene of a murder, or to establish the origin of semen in cases of rape. Similar tests can be used to confirm or deny paternity to enforce child support laws or to confirm relatedness in immigration cases. The pro?osed OTA report will review the technical developments, project emerging technological improvements, estimate costs, and highlight policy implications. The project gathered technical information on the reliability of the various genetic techniques, assessed costs and procedural issues raised by the rapid adoption of forensic genetic testing, and outlined issues that will emerge as the tests are more widely used. The new genetic techniques are analogous in most respects to more traditional means of identification, such as fingerprinting. Indeed, one of the methods is called "genetic fingerprinting." There are differences, however, that bear on public policy. Several methods of genetic analysis exist, and different techniques are better for different applications. Standardization of techniques is therefore an issue. Costs of testing are high compared to conventional fingerprinting, although they promise to drop as techniques evolve. In addition, use of tests will necessitate database maintenance and storage of materials with attendant budget implications for law enforcement agencies. Genetic techniques also could capture personal data about familial disease susceptibility that fingerprints and other more traditional techniques cannot. The significance of these issues depends on which tests are performed and who has access to the results or to the DNA.
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-100-Project Director: Robyn Nishimi 228-6690. Estimated publication date: Winter 1989-90. Requested by: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Partnerships Under Pressure; Mana~ng Commercial Low-Level Radioactive Waste This project analyzed the Federal effort and State progress in implementing the Low-Level Radioactive Waste Policy Amendments Act (LLRWPAA). The LLRWPAA identifies Federal activities that are needed to help St1.tes meet milestones for developing disposal facilities. Several of these activities center aro:md understanding alternative disposal technologies of low-level radioactive waste. Near-surface disposal is the method that has been used at all existing low-level waste disposal sites in the United States. Environmental problems have, however, been encountered at several closed sites, particularly those in humid re~ons. Several States are therefore interested in using alternative disposal technologies. Concerns have been raised, however, about the technical merits of some disposal facility designs, including designs that would meet Federal regulations for waste that is both radioactive and defined as hazardous by the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act. This study will analyze the technological, economic, and institutional issues surrounding different disposal technologies for low-level radioactive waste. A status report of State progress in fulfilling the LLR WP AA and developing new disposal facilities will also be given. Associated publication: "Managing Greater-Than-Class C Low-Level Radioactive Waste" (BP), published October 1988 Project Director: Gretchen Hund McCabe 228-6852 Estimated publication date: Published November 1989 Requested by: Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works C. Assessments in Process on October 1, 1989 ENERGY, MATERIALS, AND INTERNATIONAL SECURI1Y DIVISION New Energy Technologies and the Developing Countries A variety of concerns has directed attention toward establishing greater cooperation among the world's governments in developing policies aimed at systematically fostering energy development in the Third World countries while mitigating the environmental impacts of that development. Increasin~ the level of energy services in developing countries is essential for advancing their economies and raising standards of living. But greater demands for energy in these countries could cause serious problems, for the countries themselves as well as the rest of the world, unless they are handled in ways that are economically and environmentally acceptable. This study will examine how technology can contribute to the goal of sound and productive energy development in the world's poorer countries, and the role of U.S. policy and the relevant international organizations in encouraging the rapid adoption of improved technologies. The study will first examine the energy sector in developing countries, and energy's linkage with economic and social development, and the local and global environment. Second, the study will examine the extent to which technology can contribute to the improved efficiency of energy supply, distribution and use in developing countries, the factors determining the rate of technology adoption, and the potential of these technologies for limiting environmental damage. Case studies will provide detailed analysis for the handful of developing countries that account for a large share of total developing country energy. Finally, the study will address ways in which Congress could encourage the
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-101-adoption of technologies that promote economically and environmentally sound energy development in the poorer countries. The assessment will also include an analysis of how sales by U.S. energy technology vendors to developing countries could benefit the U.S. trade balance, and the policies of other industrialized countries with regard to the transfer of energy technologies to developing countries. Possible Impact on Legislation: A wide range of proposed legislation regarding developing countries may be affected by the findings of OTA's assessment. They are largely in the areas of global environmental protection initiatives, technology transfer, and third world debt. Among these bill are: S. 201, World Environmental Policy Act of 1989; S. 321, National Energy Policy Act of 1989; H.R. 1078, Global Warming Prevention Act of 1989; S. 928, Global Environmental Assistance Act of 1989; S. 676 Global Environmental Protection Act of 1989; H.R. 2065, Tropical Forest Initiative Act; H.R. 1704 Tropical Forest Protection Act; S. 488, Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Technology Competitiveness Act; H.R. 2104, Renewable Energy Trade Equity Promotion Act; Foreign aid authorization and appropriations bills Project Director: Joy Dunkerley 228-6267. Estimated publication date: Spring 1991. Requested by: Senate Governmental Affairs Committee; House Select Committee on Hunger; House Foreign Affairs Committee Energy System Vulnerability Lengthy disruptions in the supply of electricity, natural gas, and refined oil products can cause huge economic losses and serious threats to the public health, safety, and convenience. There are many points in the complex systems for producing and delivery energy which are vulnerable to disruption, whether by hostile action or massive natural disaster. Terrorist activity is quite low in this country, but that could change rapidly, and major earthquakes and other disasters are inevitable. The major concern of policymakers appears to be that such issues may not be adequately considered in P.lanning and operating energy facilities, resulting in an unnecessarily hi~h level of vulnerability. If this turns out to be a concern of significant importance, it is possible that improved design of specific facilities reduce vulnerability. In addition, alternative system concepts could be more sensitive to such concerns and therefore the overall reliability and durability of our energy system enhanced? This assessment will identify the points of greatest vulnerability, particularly in electric transmission systems and evaluate ways to reduce the vulnerability or mitigate the consequences. The focus will be on measures that can be accomplished at low cost and minimal interference to. the operation of the systems. Possible Impact on Legislation: Senate Government Affairs and House Energy and Commerce have both convened hearin$S and initiated other oversight investigations that may result in legislative proposals in this area. Findings of the OTA assessment may also contribute to the evaluation of the DOE R&D budget authorization. Project Director: Alan Crane 228-6427. Estimated publication date: Spring/Summer 1990. Requested by: Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs High-Temperature Superconductivity In Perspective The availability of high-temperature superconducting materials offers potential for practical use of superconductors in computers, transportation, and electric power systems as well as many new applications not possible with the traditional low-temperature
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-102-materials. Since early 1987, technical advances have been announced literally weeJJy and, if current levels of effort are sustained, progress over the next two decades is likel, to continue to be rapid on both scientific and commercial fronts. This project will evaluate the U.S. research and development agenda for these ma.:erials, the technical and economic barriers facing potential applications, and the process.'. n~/ manufacturing requirements for delivering products using these materials. This proJect follows UJ? on a recently completed OTA project on competitiveness issues assoc1a:ed with commercialization of hi_ghtemperature superconductors. This latter project, unde1 taken by the Industry, Technofogy, and Employment Program, focused on alternative Fed1~ral roles in accelerating the commercializat10n of these new materials, and was delivered in June 1988. Possible Impact on Legislation: S. 222, a bill to encourage development of energy plants at the mouth of coal mines, concentrating on Appalachian region, through use of superconductivity technology. Staff Contact: Greg Eyring 228-6270. Estimated publication date: Winter 1989 /90. Requested by: Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources; Senate Committee on Commerce; Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs; House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Technological Risks and Opportunities for Future U.S. Energy Supply and Demand Congress is now bein$ presented with a series of energy demand and supply forecasts that are radically different from those of just a few years ago. A common theme includes greatly moderated oil prices into the early 1990s followed by a possible return to OPEC dominance of oil markets, rising oil prices, and greatly expanded U.S. oil imports by the late 1990s. This study will evaluate current views of the U.S. future energy outlook, identify key technical uncertainties and risks that affect the validity of these views, and identify and evaluate energy policy options for dealing with these uncertainties and risks. The first phase of the study evaluated the implications for U.S. energy policy of volatile oil prices, emphasizing the effects of low prices on domestic oil production, e.g., plugging of stripper wells and loss of production from tertiary and some secondary recovery operations in the shorter term, loss of production and reserves due to lower drilling rates, reduced R&D expenditures, and so forth in the longer term. In the second phase, aimed at overall U.S. energy supply and demand, OTA will first examine historic changes in U.S. energy supply and demand and the ability of previous forecasts to anticipate these changes. The study will describe current forecasts for the next 15 to 25 years and identify their underlying assumptions. The study will then identify and evaluate the primary sources of technical uncertainties in the forecasts. The sources of technical uncertainty include: economic growth rates and patterns; new energy supply, conservation, and end use technologies; geologic uncertainties about available oil and gas resources; consumer reactions to lower energy prices, and other aspects of public and industry behavior; and methodological problems in forecasting. Finally, the study will identify and evaluate policy options that would add flexibility to the energy system, i.e., to increase the system's ability to adapt to the range of futures consistent with these uncertainties. Possible Impact on Legislation: Two major legislative areas have been highlighted in the 101st Congress in this area: automotive fuel economy and alternative transportation fuels. The forthcoming special reports are likely to contribute to discussions in the clean air act debate including consideration of: H.R. 3030 and S. 1490; H.R. 4; H.R. 99; H.R. 2323; s. 1894
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-103 -Interim publication: "U.S. Oil Production: The Effect of Low Oil Prices" (SR), published July 1987. Project Director: Steven Plotkin 228-6275. Estimated publication date: Spring 1990. Requested by: House Committee on Energy and Commerce, and its Subcommittee on Fossil and Synthetic Fuels; House Committee on Government Operations Trainin~ in the Workplace: Implications for U.S. Competitiveness A work force capable of dealing with rapid technological change will be increasingly important to U.S. industry as other parts of the world continue to become more sophisticated economic competitors. Thus, the training U.S. firms ~ive to help their workers adapt to new technology and changing workplace needs is more critical now than ever before. The United States has a very large industrial training system, and a great many U.S. firms place a strong emphasis on training their workers; some are world leaders in developin~ cutting edge methods to enhance the performance of their workers. Since much of this training takes place within firms, little systematic analysis is available about the nature and effectiveness of the industrial trairung system as a whole. In the past, policymakers in government had little need for such analyses. Recently, however, a variety of Federal incentives to encourage U.S. firms to engage in more training of their workers have been proposed. Better information about the employee training system would help policymakers evaluate these proposals, beginning with the fundamental question of whether any additional Federal role is warranted. This assessment will explore the connections between new workplace technology, employee training, and competitiveness. The study will examine such topics as: 1) the nat10nal investment in trairung of active work forces; 2) the delivery system for employee training, including cooperative approaches between industry and State government; 3) instructional technology and research needs in work force training; 4) employee training and adjustment to technological change; 5) demographic changes in the work force and their implications for training; 6) employee training m countries that are major industrial com_{)etitors of the United States; 7) policy questions that would be helpful to Congress as it considers the effectiveness of existin$ Federal programs, and debates whether to expand, contract, or maintain a Federal role m this area. Possible Impact on Legislation: This study could affect actions on several different types of legislation, including: Basic Skills and Workplace Literacy: H.R. 970, H.R. 3123, S.813, S.1310 Tax Treatment of Employee Educational Assistance under Section 127 of the IRS Code: H.R.2037,S.260 Postsecondary Vocational Education/ Advanced Technical Training: H.R. 7, H.R. 22, H.R. 70, H.R. 147, H.R. 1265, H.R. 1720, H.R. 1128, H.R. 1130, H.R. 1913, H.R. 2235, S.453, S.1143, H.R. 2235, H.R. 2544, S.799, S.439, S.496, S. 658, S.1019, S.1219 Labor Market, Skills Information Improvement: H.R. 2235, S. 742, Vocational Education and Trainini:: Six days of full committee or subcommittee hearings on reauthorization or amendments to the Carl D. Perkins Vocational Education Act were held by the House Committee on Education and Labor. The Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources' Education Subcommittee held three days of hearings on the Perkins Act. Job Trainini: Partnership Act: Five days of hearings were held by the full Senate Labor and Human Resources Committee or one of its subcommittees on proposed amendments to the Job Training Partnership Act. The Subcommittee on Employment Opportunities of the House Education and Labor Committee held hearings on legislation to amend JTP A. Adult Literacy Workplace Basic Skills: Hearings were held by the Subcommittee on Employment and Productivity of the Senate Labor and Human Resources Committee.
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-104 -Project Director: Wendell Fletcher 228-6352. Estimated publication date: Fall 1990. Requested by: Senate Committee on Finance; Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources; House Committee on Education and Labor Technology. Innovation. and U.S. Trade Rapid and widespread international diffusion of technology has created competition for U.S. manufacturers from a growing number of countries, and in a widening array of products. This competition has cut into the market share of U.S. manufacturers even in many high technology products. Manufacturing productivity rose more slowly in the U.S. than in some of our competitor nations, and the quality of many U.S. products has been poorer than those of our competitors. Some products, notably much of consumer electronics, are no longer made in the U.S. at all. The loss of the American lead in technology, combined with macroeconomic developments that made imports attractive and exporting difficult, has caused unprecedented trade deficits, which exceeded $160 billion in 1987. The loss of U.S. technological dominance has many causes. Part of the loss was inevitable, as Europe and Japan recovered, with U.S. help, from WWII, and as the newly industrializing countries, again with U.S. help, educated their work forces at all levels, applied new technology, and took advantage of the markets in an open trading system. But some of our loss is a result of our inadequate attention to manufacturing process improvement, and to an environment of decision making about investment in R&D, innovation, and product commercialization shaped partly by U.S. public policy. Unlike many other governments, the U.S. has been reluctant to use public policy directly to aid manufacturing competitiveness, or to factor the effects on our international competitiveness into policy decisions in other areas ( e.g., regulation). The result is an environment that is much less favorable to long term investment than in, for example, Japan and the Asian newly industrializing countries. The study will assess how technology, coupled with strategic responses by U.S. firms, could improve the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing. The study will also identify possible public policy responses, with particular emphasis on policies to stimulate long term mvestment in technology development and commercialization, and on trade policies that occupy a middle ground between neoclassical free trade and protectionism. The effects of such policies on the ability of developing nations to improve their own standards of living will be identified. Possible Impact on Legislation: This study could affect actions on several bills under consideration, including: Bills related to tax credits designed to stimulate research and development. Examples are: HR1267; HR1416; and S570. Bills related to establishing a Department of International Trade and Industry. Examples are: HR782; HR1274; and S1191. Bills related to technology extension programs. Examples are: Sl031 and S1191. A bill related to Japanese technical hterature: S1191. Bills related to technology diffusion and transfer projects. Examples are: HR1216; HR1516; HR2104; HR2287; S488; S550; S1031; S1059; S1067; S1191; and S1294. Bills related to manufacturing technologies. Examples are: HR1267; HR2287; S952; S1067; and S1191. Bills related to improving technical and scientific education. Examples are: HR22; HR966; HR1217; HR1293; HR1561; HR1675; HR1720; HR2235; HR2270; HR2957; Sl34; S439; S1067; and S1442. Bills related to encouraging R&D consortia. Examples are: HR1024; HR1025; HR1516; HR2264; HR2287; S550; S1006; and S1294.
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-105 Bills related to antitrust laws. Examples are: HR423; HR469; HR1024; HR1267; HR2287; S179;S270;S952;S1006. Bills related to intellectual property issues. Examples are: HR469; S270; S446; S1294; and S1529. A bill related to federal laboratories. This is S550. Bills related tJ indexing, reducing or creating variable rates of capital gains tax. Examples are: HR57; HR499; HR504; HR719; HR1029; HR1242; HR2154; HR2370; S171; S182; S348; S411; S551; S664; S1286: S1311; and S1541. In addition, during the 100th Congress, the president signed the Trade Act of 1988. Many in the 101st Congress, and in the executive branch, will be interested in how the new law is implemented, and whether further legislation is warranted. Also, the top item on the agenda of the 101st Congress is real, structural federal budget deficit reduction, a sine qua non for reducing the trade deficit. Just how the deficit is reduced, however, could have a great deal to do with how the trade deficit can be reduced, and many in Congress (particularly on the requesting Banking Committees of the House and Senate and the Senate Committee on Finance) will be interested in how to achieve real deficit reduction without penalizing the efforts of manufacturers to rebuild competitiveness. Interim publications: "Trade Adjustment Assistance: New Ideas for an Old Program" (SR), published June 1987; "Paying the Bill: Manufacturing and America's Trade Deficit" (SR), published June 1988; ''Technology Transfer to the United States: The MITJapan Science and Technology Program" (BP), published April 1989 Project Director: Julie Gorte 228-6354. Estimated publication date: Spring 1990. Requested by: Senate Committee on Finance; Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs; House Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs Europe 1992 The United States must redouble efforts to develop and diffuse manufacturing technology to reduce its trade deficit and maintain economic progress. But technology is not enough; other countries' trade regimes and market conditions can make it difficult for American producers to compete even if the U.S. produces high-quality reliable products at reasonable prices. East Asian nations are large and growing markets, but difficult to penetrate. Many less developed countries are burdened with substantial debt and have little hard currency. But most importantly, Europe is preparing to remove intra-European trade barriers by 1992 and reorganize its external trade relationships. While the European Commission promises that the result will mean greater opportunities for U.S. firms, it is not clear that this applies to U.S. exports. European policies on local origin, standards, and government procurement could force many U.S. firms to manufacture in Europe in order to sell there. In the long run, efforts to develop and diffuse technology in high-tech sectors in Europe could have a more pervasive impact on the competitive success of American manufacturing. European science and technology initiatives like EUREKA, JESSI, RACE, and BRITE could be sources of renewed competition for American firms; they also might provide insights for our own technology policy debates. This study will assess how the EC's Single Market Act and the technology projects of Europe af{ect U.S. manufacturers and trade, particularly in high technology sectors like microelectronics, computers, and telecommunications equipment. It will compare how technology development in chosen industrial sectors has worked in both Europe and East Asia, and assess the conditions under which governmental participation and collaboration between firms, universities and government has succeeded or failed.
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106-Possible Ir ,pact on Legislation: At least one bill related to the transformation of the European Economic Community in 1992: S1347. Also, in the past year, at least five different ,;ommittees have held hearings about the effect Europe 1992 may have on American com~etitiveness. These include: The House Comrmttee on Science, Space, and Technolo,zy, 5 / 15 /89; Subcommittee on International Economic Policy and Trade of the House Comnnttee on Foreign Affairs, 3/23, 4/5, 4/15, 5/10, 5/11/89; Senate Finance Committe,~, 5/4/89; Joint Economic Committee, 4/26/89; Subcommittee on Financial Institutiom, Supervision, Regulations and Insurance of the House Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs Committee, 9 /26/89. Project Director: Julie Gorte 228-6354. Estimated Publication Date: Winter 1990-91. Requested by: Senate Committee on Finance The Use of Technology To Counter Terrorism The assessment will examine the state of R&D applicable to countering terrorism. It will identify promising lines of work for further exploitation, and assess the effectiveness of translating successful technology into actual protection of U.S. citizens, officials, and property. In addition to obvious areas of interest, such as technologies related to explosives detection, access control, and incident response, OTA will also consider possible future terrorist threats and potential means of dealing with them. Marked by the bombing of Pan Am 103, 1988 witnessed a large increase in the number of U.S. casualties to terrorism. But terrorists have been active throughout the 1980s, staging hijackings, kidnappings, airplane bombings, and car bombings. Death tolls have been high; e.g., over 800 died in the three worst aircraft bombings between 1985 and 1988. Threats from various officials of foreign governments ( e.g., Iran) and sub-national groups (e.g., Ahmed Jibril's Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine/General Command) indicate a policy of escalating attacks on U.S. targets, including civilians. In general, on a global level, U.S. interests and U.S. citizens have been the frequent, although by no means unique, targets of attack. The U.S. possesses one distinct advantage in its response to this challenge: its high level of technological expertise and its excellent technical resources. While technology cannot provide foolproof protection of American lives and property from terrorists, it can play an important role. OTA will provide Congress with an analysis of the potential effectiveness of this tool for the nearand mid-terms. Policy opt10ns regarding research and development and the transfer of useful technology to the field will be included. Some of the information developed will have to be protected. OT A will therefore produce an unclassified report with an appropriately classified appendix. Possible Impact on Legislation: Work on counterterrorism technology should influence legislation concerning funding for R&D related to counterterrorist activities in a number of agencies, as well as funding for operation of agencies with a counterterrorist role. Interim deliverable: ''The Use of Technology in Counterterrorism" (SR), Spring 1990 Project Director: Anthony Fainberg 228-6429. Estimated Publication Date: Spring 1991. Requested by: Senate Governmental Affairs Committee; Subcommittee on Terrorism of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee; Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, and its Subcommittee on Aviation
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107 International Collaboration in Defense Technology Cooperation with our allies in the development of defense technology has been a major element of the NATO Alliance. It is also an increasingly important aspect in our relations with Japan and other Western Pacific nations. At the same time, competition in high-technology mdustries both military and civilian-has escalated among the United States, the European Community, and Japan. In this context, much advanced technology is first developed for commercial markets and is later adapted to military systems. Conversely, military technolo&Y also finds its way into civilian markets. Future agreements for international cooperation m defense technl)logy may affect longstanding security arrangements, both in Europe and in the Pacific Basin. They may also influence the ability of U.S. companies to compete for market share in international high-technology industries. Cooperation in military technology may have to be reevaluated with resf ect to new political and economic conditions related to the economic integration o Western Europe m 1992. This study will: 1) assess the level of cooperation that exists between the United States and its allies in the development of defense related technologies; 2) analyze the implications of international collaboration in defense technology and co-development of military systems, both in terms of the impact on present security alliances, and in terms of the effect on the health of defense-related industries in the Umted States; 3) address the problem of increasing U.S. military dependence on foreign technology; and 4) describe and assess relevant U.S. defense technology policies, as well as the objectives and policy approaches that our allies bring to the bargaining table. Possible Impact on Legislation: Work on international cooperation in defense technology should have broad influence in areas of defense, commerce, and foreign policy. It ought to directly influence legislation on continued funding of cooperative projects with our NATO Allies, and should be influential in future debates about "FSX-like" deals. Interim deliverable: "International Collaboration in Defense Technology: Issues and Implications" (SR), Spring 1990 Project Director: William Keller 228-6434 Estimated publication date: Spring 1991 Requested by: Senate Committee on Armed Services, and its Subcommittee on Defense Industry and Technology; House Committee on Government Operations, and its Subcommittee on Commerce, Consumer, and Monetary Affairs Technologies for Verifying Compliance With a START Agreement The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty under negotiation between the United States and the Soviet Union will attempt to reduce and constrain a large and complex set of nuclear weapons. Verification measures for such a treaty may include national technical means ("NTM"), agreements not to interfere with NTM, exchanges of data, counting rules, cooperative measures (such as opening missile shelters on request), and onsite inspections of various types. The process of verification involves technical as well as other components. A technolo~ assessment cannot determine the verifiability of an arms agreement, but it can assist Members of Congress in judging how well a proposed verification regime will meet their standards of verification. It can identify the kinds of information useful for verification. It can evaluate the utility and limitations of various verification measures, singly and in combination, for acquiring those kinds of information. For some arms control provisions, it may be able to estimate the level of confidence that certain verification measures could provide that compliance exists. It can identify the interactions between technical estimates and legal-political judgments. It can ofter a
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-108-general framework for technical underst'.mding of verification issues. The report will be classified "secret" but an unclassified summary will be produced. Possible Impact on Legislation: Work on technology for verifying a START agreement should influence deliberations over the ;atification of a START a~reement, if and when one is concluded. It may also affect autborization and appropriat10n for DoD, DOE, ACDA, and verification-related technokgy research and development in various agencies. Project Director: Thomas Karas 228-643('. Estimated publication date: Summer 199L Requested by: Senate Foreign Relations Committee; House Foreign Affairs Committee Advanced Space Transportation Technolo~es Recent executive branch reports have identified ambitious civilian and military space goals, many of which could only be met by achieving significant advances in space transportation technology. Whether or not this Nation chooses to pursue these specific goals, Congress needs credible information regarding the relationship between space goals and space launch technology and the feasibility of achieving critical technical and cost milestones. Although some technology research will be "generic," the launch needs of NASA, the Air Force, SDI, and the U.S. private sector are not identical. If this Nation chooses to invest in advanced launcher technology, it will be important to ensure that launch vehicle re~uirements are met without unnecessarily dissipating scarce national resources on duplicative or unproductive research. In light of these concerns, OT A's assessment will: 1) identify launch systems capable of serving the plausible range of demand for space transportation over the next 20 years; 2) identify and evaluate key technologies--including lowcost, low-technology systems--that might increase the performance and reduce the cost of space transportation while contributing to U.S. mdustrial competitiveness; 3) evaluate the time and cost of development of these technologies; 4) determine how changes in spacecraft design and operations will influence launch technology; 5) analyze techniques and incentives that could reduce the operations and maintenance costs of new technologies; 6) examine alternative roles for the private sector; 7) assess the state of advanced launch research in other countries; and 8) discuss the adequacy of existing institutions for carrying out an aggressive R&D program to meet the needs of diverse users. Possible Impact on Legislation: Work on space transportation and space debris has, and should continue to, influence authorizations and appropriations for NASA and the Air Poree. Interim publications: "Launch Options for the Future: A Buyer's Guide" (SR), published July 1988; "Reducing Launch Operations Costs: New Technologies and Practices" (TM), published September 1988; "Round Trip to Orbit: Human Spaceflight Alternatives" (SR), published August 1989; "Affordable Spacecraft: Design and Launch Alternatives" (BP), Winter 1989-90; "Space Debris: A Threat to Space Operations" (TM), Winter, 1989-90 Project Director: Ray Williamson 228-6448. Estimated publication date: Winter 1989-90. Requested by: House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Holding the Edge: Maintaining the Defense Technology Base This assessment explored the growing concern over the health of the defense technology base, the indispensable underpinning of U.S. technological superiority in
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-109 military systems. The study analyzed how the defense technology base is managed and how relevant policy is made and identified options for Congress to improve this process. It also identified the strengths and weaknesses of the defense technology base and suggested policy options to exploit the strengths and remedy the weaknesses. The main volume of the report was published in May 1989, and Volume 2, the Appendices, is currently in press. Interim Publications: "Holding the Edge: Maintaining the Defense Technology Base" (R), published May 1989; "'The Defense Technology Base: Introduction and Overview" {TM), published March 1988. Project Director: Alan Shaw 228-6443. Estimated publication date: Winter 1989-90. Requested by: Senate Committee on Armed Services, and the Subcommittee on Defense, Industry, and Technology. HEALTH AND LIFE SCIENCES DMSION Biotechnology in a Global Economy The U.S. Government indirectly supports industrial applications of biotechnology by funding basic research in a wide range of relevant disciplines. Congressional interest in both the regulation of biotechnology and its role in economic growth has been evident in hearings and legislation since the early 1980s. International economic competitiveness has emerged as a key bipartisan issue. To date, congressional actions related to biotechnology have been primarily focused on re~latory issues, with less consideration of how other industrial policies might conflict with or complement the U.S. competitive position in the industrial sectors most affected by these new techniques. Biotechnology efforts underway in Western Europe and Japan cover a spectrum of industries. Not all countries are targeting all industries. An assessment of the U.S. competitive position in biotechnology must take into account the extent to which specific countries are posing a significant challenge in the application of biotechnology to particular industrial sectors. Traditional indicators of competitive status (e.g., imports, exports, trade balances, employment) are not yet useful predictors of the U.S. rosition in biotechnology due to the immaturity of the industry and the unavailability o data. Thus, this study will necessarily develop pioneering criteria on which a competitive assessment can be made. This assessment will: 1) identify current U.S. capabilities in various applications of biotechnology and compare these capabilities to efforts underway internationally, 2) address trade, export, and international intellectual property issues relevant to the safe and timely commercialization of products derived from biotechnology, 3) assess the feasibility of cooperative ventures between U.S. firms (e.g., those formed in Japan and Western Europe), 4) determine the extent to which international agreements are occurring and evaluate the impact of those agreements, and 5) examine existing mechanisms for more effective technology transfer between Federal and private interests. The project will produce at least three short reports, each focusing on one industrial sector. Possible industrial sectors for study are pharmaceuticals, agriculture, specialty chemicals, and support industries (i.e., equipment, instrumentation, supplies). Possible Impact on Legislation: This work could affect legislation on organizational activities of the Department of Commerce, as well as S.1036, the Rural Partnership Act of 1989. Interim publications: "Government Policies for Biotechnology" (SR), Fall 1990; "Commercial Integration" (SR), Winter 1990
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-110-Project Director: Kevin O'Connor 228-6692. Estimated publication date: Winter 1990-91. Requested by: Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry; House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology; Senate Commi ti:ee on the Budget Genetic Testin~ in the Workplace Genetic testing, as used in the workplace, encompasses two actiVl ties: screening and monitoring. Genetic screening involves a priori examining employees or :,rospective employees for certain inherited genetic traits. Genetic monitoring involveJ periodic testing of employees to evaluate possible changes in their genetic material that might have resulted from workplace exposures. In 1982, OTA surveyed industry and unions to determine the extent of employer genetic testin~. Despite finding that none of the genetic tests evaluated by OTA met established scientific criteria for routine use in an occupational setting, OTA found that some companies were testing employees, and the results indicated that such testing could increase. In the intervening years, rapid advances in recombinant DNA and human molecular genetics have enormously increased the ability to identify individuals at risk for, or susceptible to, a variety of conditions, including thalassemias, alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency, manic-depressive and other mental disorders, heart disease, hypertension, and some neoplasias. Both the number of applications and the technical capability to detect disorders have increased. With these advances, various concerns have surfaced about new consequences--positive and negative--that the new genetic technologies may have for both employers and employees. This assessment will: 1) examine the state-of the-art (e.g., efficacy, accuracy, cost) of technologies used by employers for genetic screening and monitoring; 2) survey, at a minimum, the 500 largest U.S. industries, 50 largest utilities, and 11 major unions to determine the current (and future) nature and extent of employer testing; 3) analyze the impacts genetic testing may have had since the 1982 OTA survey; 4) discuss ethical issues pertinent to worker testing, including worker involvement in testing decisions; and 5) examine legal issues, including employment discrimination, and the role of the Occupational Safety and Health Admimstration and the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. Possible Impact on Legislation: This assessment could have an impact on H.R. 3067, the High Risk OccuP,ational Disease Notification and Prevention Act of 1987 to establish a system for identifying, notifying, and preventing illness and death amon$ workers who are at increased or high risk of occupational disease; or on S. 1265, the Mimmum Health Benefits for All Workers Act of 1987 to amend the Public Health Service Act and the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938 to provide minimum health benefits for all workers in the United States, if it is reintroduced. Project Director: Margaret Anderson 228-6695 Estimated publication date: Spring 1990. Requested by: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation; House Committee on Energy and Commerce; House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Endorsed by: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources New Developments in Neuroscience Neurological disorders affect 50 million Americans every year. These disorders range from simple disorientation resulting from jet lag, to loss of sensation or movements in an arm or leg, to the total mental and physical incapacitation that results from degenerative conditions like Alzheimer's disease. Estimates of the costs of care, treatment, and loss of productivity due to neurological disorders run as high as $300 billion per year and are expected to increase as the population ages. Recent advances in neuroscience research have enormous potential to improve the lives of millions of Americans. In a series
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-111-of publications, OTA examines a number of topics in neuroscience that have the greatest potential to affect our society in the next decade. These topics include: 1) Neural transplants and nerve regeneration: the state-of-the-art in research and application will be examined. Legal, ethical, scientific, and regulatory issues related to sources of material for neural transplantation will be evaluated. 2) Biological rhythms and shift work: basic and applied research in biological rhythms and new applications to workers' scheduling, particularly in occupations overseen by the Federal Government, will be described. In addition, the impact of chronic disruf tion of sleep-wake cycles on worker health, safety, and productivity will be examined. 3 Neurotoxicrty: the current hazard of neurotoxins, the practices for neurotoxicity testing by private and public organizations, and the efficacy of these practices in identifying neurotoxicity will be analyzed. In addition, this analysis will identity areas where new advances in neuroscience research may be applied to neurotoxicity testing. 4) Biochemical bases of mental illness: this exammation will include review of the current level of research in mental disorders. The scientific, legal, and ethical implications of new discoveries such as genetic markers for mental disorders will also be assessed, and the development and efficacy of new pharmaceuticals to combat these conditions will be addressed. Possible Impact on Legislation: This assessment could affect actions on the following legislation: H. R. 1530: A bill to authorize a national program to reduce the threat to human health posed by exposure to contaminants in the air indoors. H. R. 1762: A bill to amend the Consumer Product Safety Act and related laws to improve the performance of CPSC. S. 657: A bill to authorize a national program to reduce the threat to human health posed by exposure to contaminants in the air indoors. H. R. 146: A bill to amend the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act to permit Federal agencies to use pesticides on public lands without duplicating the research or analyses of the EPA H. R. 599: A bill to prevent ground water contamination by pesticides. H. R. 3153: A bill to amend the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act. H. R. 3292: A bill to amend the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act and the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act. H. R. 1725: A bill to amend the Federal Food, Dru~ and Cosmetic Act with respect to pesticide tolerances and the consideration of benefits of pesticide use. S. 722: The companion bill to H. R. 1725. H.J.RES.68: A joint resolution designating May 1989 as "National Stroke Awareness Month". (Neural Grafts) H.J.RES.174: A joint resolution to designate the decade beginning January 1, 1990, as the "Decade of the Brain". Law No: 101-58 (Neural Grafts) S.J.RES.62: A joint resolution designating May 1989 as "National Stroke Awareness Month". Public Law No: 101-27 (Rhythms) H.R.622: A bill to amend the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act to require that the labeling of drugs which are derived from materials from a human fetus shall include notice of the source of such materials and the labeling shall be made available to the consumer and the parent or guardian of the consumer. H.R.625: A bill to regulate the interstate transportation, importation, exportation, and storage of human fetal tissue. H.R.1095: A bill to promote safety and health in workplaces owned, operated or under contract with the United States by clarifying the United States' obligation to observe occupational safety and health standards and clarifying the United States' responsibility for harm caused by its negligence at any workplace owned by, operated by, or under contract with the United States. S.464: Companion bill to H.R. 1095 H.R.1351: A bill to amend the Public Health Service Act to establish a certain prohibition against the use of fetal tissue obtained pursuant to induced abortions.
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112 H.R.1490: A bill to amend the Public Health Service Act to provide assistance to educatio~. research, and treatment programs relating to Alzheimer's disease and related disorders and to amend the Social Security Act to improve the provisions of services under the Medicare and Medicaid programs to individuals with such diseases or disorders. S.1321: companion bill to H.R. 1490 H.R. 1643: A bill to provide the independent health and safety regulation of Department of Energy nuclear facilities, and for other purposes. H.R.2781: A bill to provide better services for individuals with Alzheimer's disease and related dementias through improved biomedical research, health services research, and training of health care personnel, and for other purposes. S.1255: companion bill to H.R. 2781 H.R.3067: A bill to establish a system for identifying, notifying, and preventing illness and death among workers who are at increased or high risk of occupational disease, and for other purposes. H.R.3173: A bill to apply the provisions of OSHA to certain Department of Energy nuclear facilities. S.582: A bill to notify workers who are at risk of occupational disease in order to establish a system for identifying and preventing illness and death of such workers, and for other purposes. Interim publications: "Neurotoxic Substances: Identification and Regulation" (SR), Winter 1989-90; "Neural Grafts and Nerve Regeneration" (SR), Winter 1989-90; "Biological Rhythms and Shift Work" (SR), Fall 1990 Project Director: David Liskowsky 228-6676 Estimated publication date: Fall 1990. Requested by: House Committee on Energy and Commerce; House Committee on Veterans Affairs; House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology; House Committee on Appropriations; Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportatio~ Subcommittee on Consumer Endorsed by: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Confused Minds, Burdened Families: Helping People Find Care for Alzheimers & Other Dementias Growing awareness of the large number of persons affected by dementia, the difficulties involved in their care, and the lack of appropriate services for them in most communities has led to public and private efforts to establish services. Attention has focused so far on particular health and long-term care services needed by persons with dementia and their families. Less attention has been paid to methods of locating and arranging these services. Some States and localities and some private agencies have established information and referral and case management systems to help families and others obtain services for persons with dementia. In some communities, local voluntary groups, usually associated with the National Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders Association, provide information and assistance to families in locating needed services. In most communities, however, the existing information and referral and case management services fail to meet the needs of persons with dementia and their families. As a result, families and other caregivers are referred from one agency to another in a haphazard, lengthy, and sometimes fruitless search. This assessment will describe, compare, and evaluate existing methods of locating and arranging health and long-term care services for dementia patients. It will identify methods that are successful in some communities and may therefore serve as models for other communities. It will focus on methods that coordinate services already provided by Federal, State, and local government programs and private agencies and on methods that support rather than supplant the efforts of private voluntary groups.
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-113 -Possible Impact on Legislation: This study could influence legislative initiatives with respect to long-term care for elderly and disabled people, particularly initiatives arising from the work of the Bipartisan Commission on Comprehensive Health Care and LongTerm Care (the Pepper Commission) and legislative mitiatives with respect to services for people with Alzheimer's and other dementias, such as the Alzheimer's Disease Research and Training Act of 1989 (HR 2781 and S 1255). Projt:ct Director: Katie Maslow 228-6688. Estimated publication date: Winter 1989-90. Requested by: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources; House Committee on Energy and Commerce; House Select Committee on Aging Endorsed by: House Committee on Veterans Affairs; Senate Special Committee on Aging Emerging A~icultural TechnololO'; Issues for the 1990s Today, the United States is fi$hting to retain its market share of agricultural exports against increasingly efficient competitors. An increasing need exists to reduce the cost of production and to emphasize economic yields rather than just production yields. Agricultural research plays a vital long-term role in ensuring a successful and profitable industry in this new age. This assessment will provide information on the emerging agricultural technologies for the 1990s and the structure of the research system that gives rise to these technologies. The technologies will include biotechnology, information technology, and low input technology for the food and agricultural sector. The study will examine such areas as: 1) the impact of emerging technologies on the agricultural sector; 2) Federal funding models in agricultural research; 3) direction and planning of agricultural research; 4) adequacy of the current structure of the public research and technology transfer system; and 5) the changing nature of public and private sector research. Possible Impact on Legislation: This major legislative use of this study will be fore the reauthorization of the Food Security Act of 1985 (i.e., the 1990 Farm Bill) by the Senate and House Agriculture Committees. Major areas of analyses that will be useful to the Farm Bill debate include: 1) the impact of emerging technologies on animal and crop agriculture; and 2) the relevancy of the food and agriculture public research system for the 1990s. The first analysis will focus on emerging biotechnology such as bovine somatotropin and its impact on the dairy i~dustry and consumers. Various policy scenarios will be analyzed for the committees. The public research and technology transfer system will be analyzed as to its effectiveness in the 1990s. Potential changes in the structure and funding of the system will be prepared for the committees' debates of the research and technology transfer section of the Farm Bill. The results of the study will also be useful to the Senate and House Appropriations Committees. Specific areas include allocation of funds for farm support programs, such as the dairy price support program, and research and technology transfer _programs at universities, U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Science Foundat10n, and National Institutes of Health. Project Director: Mike Phillips 228-6521. Estimated publication date: Winter 1990-91. Requested by: Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry; House Committee on Agriculture Renewable Resources Planning Technologies for Public Land Use As society's needs grow, renewable resources (soil, water, vegetation, and wildlife) are called on to provide more products and services than ever before. Multiple-use considerations are common in land and resource planning decisions. Land planning
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114 ti=,chniques are used to assess trade-offs between available land use alternatives. Certain rharacteristics, like long time horizons and their associated uncertainty, make land and renewable resources planning one of the most difficult and challenging undertakings. In ;;iddition, new, complex planning questions have been raised as a consequence of acid rain ,md global warming. To identify opportunities for improving renewable resources rlanning, OTA will: 1) assess existmg (e.g., FORPlAN model) and emerging (e.g., expert s;stems) land and resource planning technologies; 2) identify the technological and imtitutional constraints and opportunities for the U.S. Forest Service to improve its phnning process; and 3) propose options on how products of planning processes can aid Congress in establishing policies and management objectives to guide the stewardship of the Nation's renewable resources. Possible Impact on Legislation: The interim report on the national RP A Assessment and Program will likely be used by the various congressional committees in their oversight of the Final 1990 RP A Program. This Forest Service document presents alternative approaches to managing forest resources, and together with the President's Statement of Policy, sets the direction for national forest management. Congress will likely hold oversight hearings, and has the option of revising the President's Statement of Policy. In addition, many groups have suggested that the 1974 Act should be revised, and oversight hearings on the 1990 Program might set the stage for such a legislative proposal. Interim publication: "Resource Planning Act: An RPA Analysis" (SR), Spring 1990 Project Director: Ross Gorte 228-6510. Estimated publication date: Spring 1991. Requested by: House Committee on Agriculture; House Committee on Agriculture, Subcommittee on Forests, Family Farms, and Energy; House Committee on Interior and Insular Areas, Subcommittee on National Parks and Public Lands; Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Beneath the Bottom Line: Agricultural Approaches To Reduce Agrichemical Contamination of Groundwater Groundwater supplies drinking water to 50 percent of the conterminous U.S. population and to roughly 90 percent of the rural population. As monitoring efforts and testin$ methods have improved over recent years, increasing numbers of agrichemicals (fertilizers and pesticides), some of which are known carcinogens, have been found in drinking water supplies. In some cases, public health concerns have dictated that wells be capped, and environmental concerns have led to controversy over the use of wildlife refuges as irrigation tailwater disposal sites. Because known groundwater cleanup methods are largely beyond the financial reach of families or communities, and assignment of liability for nonpoint source pollution such as agriculture is extemely difficult, methods to minimize continued introduction of agriculturally related contaminants to groundwater supplies are the focus of current protection efforts. In order to assess agricultural technolow that may reduce groundwater contamination, OTA will: 1) review data and literature on extent, types, and sources of agrichemical contamination; 2) review data and literature on hydrogeological, crop type, and cropping system relationships with contamination; 3) identify agricultural technologies with potential to reduce introduction of agrichemical contaminants into groundwater; 4) assess likely impacts of these technologies, especially on the environment, farm economics, rural communities, and the structure of agriculture; and 5) assess current and potential roles of Federal, State, and private organizations in the development and implementation of technologies.
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115-Possible Impact on Legislation: This assessment relates to numerous pieces of legislation on research, erograms, and agency operations related to i) agriculture; ii) pesticide regulation; ih) water systems and water quality; and iv) natural resource data management. Major pieces of le~slation include the 1990 Farm Bill and reauthorization of FIFRA Additional le~slat10n currently under consideration includes: H.R. 37: National Ground Water Research Act of 1989, to authorize the water resources research activities of the U.S. Geological Survey and establish groundwater survey, research, demonstration, and mitigation programs. H.R. 146: Federal Pesticide Programs Improvement Act of 1989, to amend the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act to permit Federal agencies to use pesticides on public lands without duplicating the research or analyses of the Environmental Protection Agency under that Act. H.R. 599: Ground Water Safety Act of 1989, to prevent ground water contamination by pesticides via amendments to FIFRA, CW A, and the Public Health Service Act. H.R. 1725: Food Safety Amendments of 1989, to amend the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act to revise the authority under that Act to regulate pesticide chemical residues in food. H.R. 2153: Environmental Research, Development, and Demonstration Authorization Act of 1989, to authorize appropriations for environmental research, development, and demonstration for fiscal years 1990 and 1991. H.R. 2258: Agricultural Nitrogen Management Act of 1989, to minimize the impact of agricultural nitrogen on ground water and surface water quality by establishing a national task force on agricultural best management practices and to amend section 319 of the Clean Water Act. H.R. 2521: Reclamation States Ground Water Protection and Management Act of 1989, to direct the Secretary of the Interior to improve management of ground water in the Reclamation States. H.R. 2734: National Ground Water Research Act of 1989, to establish a national groundwater research program. H.R. 3153: Pesticide Regulatory Reform Amendments, to amend the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticrde Act regarding the cancellation process for pesticides suspected of posing an unacceptable risk to human health and the environment, and to establish a review of pesticides on a nine-year cycle. H.R. 3292: the Food Safety Assurance Act, to amend FIFRA and the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Acts including to streamline the procedure for removing hazardsou pesticides from the market H.R. 3552: Sustainable Agriculture Adjustment Act of 1989, to remove barriers to crop rotation and reducing reliance on manufactured chemicals and fertilizers in farm programs. H.R. 3574: Ground Water Coordination Act of 1989, to provide for coordination of ground water policy within USDA S. 203: Ground Water Research, Management, and Education Act of 1988, to authorize research into ground water contamination and remediation, establishea Interagency Ground Water Research Task Force and Advisory Committee on Ground Water Research, and for other purposes. S. 779: Agricultural Nitrogen Education and Management Act of 1989, to minimize the impact of agricultural nitrogen on ground water and surface water quality by establishing a nationwide educational program aimed at American farmers, to urge the adoption of a~ricultural best management practices, and for other purposes. S. 970: Farm Conservation and Water Protection Act of 1989, to promote low-input agricultural production systems, to maintain farm profitability, to encourage land, resources, and wildlife stewardship in connection with Federal farm programs, and for other purposes. S. 1063: Conservation Enhancement and Improvement Act of 1989, to improve the conservation of cropland, and for other purposes.
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-116-S. 1596: Agricultural Nitrogen 1"1anagement Act of 1989, to minimize the impact of agricultural nitrogen on ground water and surface water quality by establishing a national task force on acultural best management practices, to amend the Clean Water Act, and for othu purposes. Project Director: Alison L Hes~ 228-6516. Estimated publication date: Wfater 1989-90. Requested by: House Committet\ on Agriculture, and the Subcommittee on Department Operations, Research, anl, Foreign Agriculture; House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology; H0use Committee on Public Works and Transportation; House Committee on Government Operations, Subcommittee on Environment, Energy, and Natural Resources; Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Supported by: House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs, Subcommittee on Water and Power Resources Endorsed by: Sen. Charles E. Grassley U.S. Universities and Development Assistance: Technical Support for Agriculture, Natural Resources, and Environment Every Administration since Harry Truman's has committed the United States to combating hunger and poverty in developing countries. From the outset, U.S. universities, as centers of technical and scientific expertise, have been called on to provide assistance. The role of U.S. universities in development assistance is currently undergoing a period of reevaluation. Questions have been raised regarding how best universities are able to accommodate changing directions in U.S. foreign assistance, evolving needs and opportunities within developing countries, and a proliferation of types of organizations providing technical assistance in agriculture, natural resource management and conservation. OTA will assess how well universities are responding to these various changes. It will: 1) evaluate whether investments to strengthening university technical support programs, by AID and universities, are commensurate with the amount and type of assistance AID is likely to need; 2) assess what comparative advantage U.S. universities have in providing technical support; and 3) identify opportunities for increased collaborative work among groups that offer technical assistance for agriculture, natural resources, and environment. Possible Impact on Legislation: This reEort will likely be used in considering proposed revisions of the Foreign Assistance Act (FAA) (H.R. 2655 and S. 134 7) that recently passed the House and are under consideration in the Senate. It may be of particular significance in considering proposed elimination of Title XII and creation of an A.I.D.-affiliated Center for University Cooperation in DeveloJ.>ment. Most likely, an authorization will not be passed this year, but will surely be reVIsited next year. Growing concerns over earmarking of the Foreign Assistance budgets might imply some use of the report by House and Senate Appro?riations Committees' Subcommittees on Foreign Operations, especially if authonzation legislation is again bogged down. The study may also have some input regarding proposed amendments to various sections of the Agriculture Trade and Assistance Act of 1954 (PL 480). Amendments have been offered to provide Land Grant universities more effective access to Foreign Currency Research Program funds, as financed through PL 480 commodity sales abroad. House and Senate Agriculture Committees have jurisdiction over this legislation. Project Director: Ted MacDonald 228-6518. Estimated publication date: Spring 1990.
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-117 Requested by: House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology; House Committee on Foreign Affairs Supported by: Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Subcommittee on International Economic Policy, Trade, Oceans, and Environment Government Policies and Pharmaceutical Research and Development Technological change in medicine depends in part on a bas,e of research and development (R&D) undertaken by yharmaceutical firms. This R&D activity stretches from basic laboratory science to clinical testing of new drugs prior to their market entry. It is generally a lengthy and uncertain process driven by the prospect of future returns sufficient to justify the investment in R&D. Federal policies include both the costs of R&D ( e.g., through regulation of new drugs or research subsidies) and returns to investments in R&D ( e.g., through policies affecting size of the market or drug prices). How specific policies of U.S. and other governments mijU}t alter the delicate balance between costs and returns to pharmaceutical R&D has ramiffoations for the future health of Americans, for health care costs, and for the future of the U.S. pharmaceutical industry. This project will examine trends in the structure, process, and products of pharmaceutical R&D with the objective of developing and implementing a system for estimating and tracking R&D costs over time. The system for estimating such costs would involve a plan for collection of data on critical elements of the R&D process, to be used in estimates of the costs of discovering and developing successful new pharmaceutical products and returns on R&D are likely to affect R&D costs in the future. The study will also describe the organization of the pharmaceutical R&D enterprise, identifying how costs differ by therapeutic class or biological research area. Finally the study will review how changes in government policies (both domestic and foreign) affect the costs of, and returns from, R&D. The results of these investigations will be used to evaluate the costs of developing new drugs. Possible Impact on Legislation: The following legislation could be affected by this assessment: Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act S.622: A bill to amend title 35 of the United States Code to clarify the Drug Price Competition and Patent Term Restoration Act of 1984. S.AMDT.:NO.978: Concerning reports on drug-related research and development. Public Health Service Act Project Director: Judith Wagner 228-6590. Estimated publication date: Summer 1991. Requested by: House Committee on Energy and Commerce, and its Subcommittee on Health and the Environment; Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Medicare's Prescription Drug Benefit: Alternative Payment Policies In 1988, the 100th Congress passed the greatest expansion of benefits since the Medicare program began more than 20 years ago. Coverage of prescription drugs used outside of hospitals, a major component of this packa~e, is scheduled to be phased in by January 1991. Because of their concern that the Medicare program use the most appropriate policies for the prescription drug benefit, several congressional committees requested OTA to examine alternative payment arrangements. The House Committee on Energy and Commerce, the House Committee on Ways and Means, and the Senate Committee on Finance jointly requested OTA to examine alternative payment methods and policies. The Senate Special Committee on Aging also asked OTA to study alternative payment methods, with emphasis on the potential for cost savings and the effect on beneficiary access to drugs.
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-118-The OTA study will examine the experience of other p11blic and private payers of prescription drugs, including how they set payment rates, prornote appropriate use, and control total expenditures. The study will apply this expenence to develop methods that the Medicare program might use to pay for multiple-source drug!.i, sin~le-source drugs, and pharmaceutical services. Simulations will be used to estimate the implications of different payment policies for drug use and total expenditures. In devehping policy options for congressional committees to consider, the study will pay particular attent10n to balancing objectives of improving Medicare beneficiaries' health, control'ing Medicare and beneficiaries' expenditures, and providing incentives for researc;h and development on innovative technologies and for the efficient distribution and dispensing of drugs. Possible Impact on Legislation: This assessment could affect action on the following bills: Title XVIII of the Social Security Act (Medicare) H.R.2677: A bill to amend title XVIII of the Social Security Act to establish a drug utilization review system to prevent adverse drug reactions, and for other purposes. S.859: A bill to amend title XVIII of the Social Security Act to establish a drug utilization review system to prevent adverse drug reactions, and for other purposes. Project Director: Jane Sisk 228-6590. Estimated publication date: Spring 1991. Requested by: Senate Committee on Finance; House Committee on Energy and Commerce; House Committee on Ways and Means; Senate Special Committee on Aging Preventive Health Services Under Medicare Interest in health promotion and disease prevention strategies for the elderly has grown in the last 10 years as a result of the search for ways to moderate the rising costs of health care in this growing segment of the population. There is a strong belief among those involved in service delivery for the elderly that preventive strategies can delay death and reduce morbidity and disability in this population. Three of the six papers that make up this project have been released so far: Screening for Open-Angle Glaucoma in the Elderly. The Use of Preventive Services by the Elderly, and Costs and Effectiveness of Cholesterol Screening in the Elderly. Further papers will examine the costs and effectiveness of screenin$ for colorectal and cervical cancer and a final paper will deal with some of the broader issues associated with preventive services and how they are delivered. Pa{>ers on the specific technologies have examined the current state of screening, the potential benefits of implementing a screening program, and the magnitude of costs to Medicare if a particular service were offered as a covered benefit. The paper on the use of services examines the factors associated with whether the elderly receive preventive services and analyzes the implications for Medicare if such services were covered by the program. Possible Impact on Legislation: The following legislation could be affected by OTA's research: Title XVIII of the Social Security Act (Medicare) H.R.141: A bill to amend title XVIII of the Social Security Act to provide for coverage under part B of the medicare program for routine Papanicolaou tests. H.R.209: A bill to amend title XVIII of the Social Security Act to provide for annual coverage of screening mammography for women over 64 years of age and to increase base payment limit from $50 to $60. H.R.1471: A bill to amend title XVIII of the Social Security Act to provide payment for screening mammography in the same amounts as is provided as for similar mammography.
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-119 Interim publications: "Screening for Open-Angle Glaucoma in the Elderly" (Staff Paper), published October 1988; "Use or Preventive Services" (Staff Paper), published February 1989; "Cholesterol Screening for the Elderly" (Staff Paper), published April 1989; "Colorectal Cancer Screening" (Staff Paper), Winter 1989-90; "Cervical Cancer Screening" (Staff Paper), Winter 1989-90 Project Director: Judith Wagner 228-6590. Estimated publication date: Fall 1989. Requested by: House Committee on Ways and Means and its Subcommittee on Health; Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Issues Related to AIDS Technolo&ies The growing impact of AIDS on the Nation's health continues unabated, despite the optimism generated by the discovery and rapid approval of the first :palliative drug against the AIDS virus and preliminary testing of possibfe vaccines. Preventmg the spread of the AIDS virus is the pnmary strategy that is available, but is dependent on as yet unresolved differences on when testmg for infection is appropriate and on how to alter the behavior of high-risk groups. The Nation's, and even many other countries' social, economic, legal, and political systems have all been affected to some degree by the appearance of AIDS, and controversies over AIDS have even begun to affect international relations and comity among nations. Congress has responded with rapid increases in Federal funds for scientific and medical research and for research and servJ.ces in preventive education, and has begun to grapple with the difficult issues involved in financing AIDS-related health care. These diverse issues warrant a different approach from the usual OTA assessment, so this project is oriented toward a monitoring and advisory capability within OTA to assist the increasing number of congressional committees that have AIDS on their agendas. Possible Impact on Legislation: The following bills could be impacted by OTA's work on AIDS: H.CON.RES.101: A concurrent resolution expressing the sense of the Congress that proposals to distribute needles to drug addicts in order to curb the spread of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome should be rejected. H.R.278: A bill to amend the Immigration and Nationality Act to clarify that immi~rant visas may not be issued to alie_ns who are infected with the etiologic agent for acqmred immune deficiency syndrome. H.R.416: A bill to amend title II of the Social Security Act to waive, for 5 years, the 24month waitin~ period for medicare eligibility on the basis of a disability in the case of individuals with acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), and for other purposes. H.R.417: A bill to amend title II of the Social Security Act to waive, for 5 years, the 24month waiting period for medicare eligibility on the basis of a disability in the case of individuals with acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), and for other purposes. H.R.706: A bill to establish certain grants programs relating to acquired immune deficiency syndrome among intravenous substance abusers, and for other purposes. H.R.1117: A bill to amend the Public Health Service Act to provide for certain services to pregnant adolescents and adolescent parents, and for other purposes. H.R.2243: A bill to amend part A of title IV of the Social Security Act to improve quality control standards and procedures under the Aid to Families With Dependent Children Program, and for other purposes. H.R.2954: A bill to provide for a grant program to assist eligible consortia in providing services to individuals with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome or symptomatic infection with the human immunodeficiency virus. H.R.3102: A bill to amend the Public Health Service Act to establish certain eli~ibililty requirements in the program of grants to the States for counseling and testing with respect to acquired immune deficiency syndrome, and for other purposes.
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120H.R.3423: A bill to provide appropriate housing for individuals with acquired immune deficiency syndrome and related diseases. S.14: A bill to provide for a grant program to assist eligible consortia in providing services to individuals with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome or AIDS-related complex. S. 70: A bill to control the spread of AIDS. S.224: A bill to amend title II of the Social Security Act to waive, for 5 years, the 24-month waiting period for Medicare eligibility on the basis of a disability in the case of individuals with acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), and for other purposes. S.228: A bill entitled the "Intravenous Substance Abuse and AIDS Prevention Act of 1989". S.586: A bill to amend title m of the Public Health Service Act to extend the program relating to certain treatment drugs, and for other purposes. S.896: A bill to amend the Public Health Service Act to aid in the planning, development, establishment and ongoing support of Pediatric AIDS Resource Centers, to provide for coordinated health care, social services, research and other services targeted to HIV infected individuals, and for other purposes. S.953: A bill to amend the Immigration and Nationality Act to revise the grounds for exclusion from admission into the United States. S.1201: A bill to amend title XIX of the Social Security Act to make certain modifications in the Medicaid program to provide pregnant women and children greater access to health care under such program, and for other purposes. S.1782: A bill to amend the Public Health Service Act to provide for the establishment of an AIDS treatment assistance program for low income individuals, and for other purposes. S.AMDT.NO.249: To make a technical correction regarding community-based evaluations of experimental therapies for infection with the etiologic agent for the acquired immune deficiency syndrome to ensure that colleges of osteopathic medicine are eligible to participate m clinical trials. Interim publications: "Do Insects Transmit AIDS?" (Staff Paper), published September 1987; "AIDS and Health Insurance: An OTA Survey" (Staff Paper), published February 1988; "How Effective Is AIDS Education?" (Staff Paper), published June 1988; "Impact of AIDS on the Northern California Region of Kaiser Permanente" (Staff Paper), published July 1988 Project Director: Jane Sisk 228-6590. Estimated publication date: Indeterminate. Requested by: Technology Assessment Board, with encouragement from the House Committee on Appropriations Unconventional Cancer Treatments About 1 million Americans are diagnosed with cancer each year, and about half will eventually die from their cancer. Conventional cancer treatments, even when successful, can be painful and disfiguring, and of long duration. As a result, thousands of cancer patients tum to methods of treatment that are not reco$nized as effective by orthodox medicine and on which there is, in general, inadequate information. This study will: ll summarize available information on the major types of unconventional treatments; 2 describe the legal constraints on the availability of unconventional treatments; 3 describe how information about these treatments travels; and 4) examine the potential for evaluating unconventional cancer treatments for safety and effectiveness. A protocol for a prospective study of one particular treatment, immuno-augmentative therapy, will be developed in a case study.
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-121-Possible Impact on Legislation: OTA's work in this area could impact the following legislation: Public Health Service Act Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act The National Cancer act of 1971 (P.L 92-218), and amendments Interim publication: "lmmuno-Augmentative Therapy" (CS), Fall/Winter 1989. Project Director: Hellen Gelband 228-6590. Estimated publication date: Spring 1990. Requested by: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Drug Labeling in Developing and Newly-Industrialized Countries The U.S. pharmaceutical industry is a major supplier of pharmaceuticals to the world, including many develo:{>ing countries. The industry has been criticized heavily in the past for "mislabeling" of certam drugs sold in those countries. Labeling problems can be of two types: inclusion of indications for a drug's use that are not justified by scientific studies, and failure to include adequate warnings of a drug's side effects or contraindications. Leaving aside the question of past claims, the request for this assessment asks whether inappropriate labeling is occurring today. This continues to be a contentious issue in Congress and between the pharmaceutical industry and consumer groups. Despite this attention, there has been no objective, broadly based evaluation of this issue. The central issue is not simply one of whether there are differences in labeling between those drugs sold in developmg countries and those sold in the United States (or other selected industrial nations) but whether the information provided by companies about their products allows health workers in developing countries to use the drugs safely and effectively. A pilot phase has been completed, during which: 1) labeling (provided to OT A by the U.S. companies) for a sample of products sold in Panama and Brazil was analyzed, 2) field work-interviewing physicians, government officials, consumer advocates, and industry representatives, as well as collecting product labels--has been carried out in Kenya, and 3) relevant background information assembled. During Phase II, the study will be completed by continuing the labelin$ analyses of the three countries and by field work in one country in Southeast Asia, a region which will prove quite different from Latin America and Africa. In addition to acquiring labelmg material, a field study of promotional materials and practices of U.S. companies will be carried out. Possible Impact on Legislation: This report could affect various pieces of legislation, including: Drug Export Amendments Act of 1986 (P.L. 99-660) (amending the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act) Public Health Service Act Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act Interim publication: Report of Phase I, published December 1988 Project Director: Hellen Gelband 228-6590. Estimated publication date: Spring 1990. Requested by: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources; House Committee on Energy and Commerce, and its Subcommittee on Health and the Environment Monitoring of Mandated Veteran Studies Studies of possible long-term health effects stemming from aspects of military service in Vietnam were mandated in 1979 (Public Law 96-151) and 1981 (Public Law 97-72). Both laws require the approval of study protocols and monitoring of approved studies
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-122-by OTA The Centers for Disease Control were given responsibility for designing and carrying out these studies in 1983, and, with OTA approval, have been engaged in two studies--the Vietnam Experience study and the Selected Cancers Study-since then. CDC has stated and OTA concurred that a large-scale Agent Orange study is not feasible. OTA will continue to monitor the two ongoing studies. A recent law (Public Law 99272) contained a mandate for a study of women Vietnam veterans, and OT A is functioning similarly in regard to this study. Thus far, no protocol has been approved. Similar responsibilities have been mandated to OTA by legislation (Public Law 98-160) related to "atomic veterans," military personnel exposed to atomic weapons testing. Associated publication: "Workshop on NAS Medical Follow-Up Agency," Fall 1988 Project Director: Hellen Gelband 228-6590. Estimated publication date: Ongoing. Requested by: (Mandated study) Prescription Drug Payment Review Commission Activities The Medicare Catastrophic Coverage Act of 1988 (Public Law 100-360) requires the Director of OTA to appoint the eleven members of a Prescription Drug Payment Review Commission and to report annually to Congress on the functioning and progress of the Commission. The Commission is to be a new, independent Commission, established to report to Congress by May 1 of each year, beginning in 1990, concerning methods of determining payment for outpatient dru~s covered under the new law. OTA selected the Commissioners in December 1988, and is now beginning the process of monitoring the Commission's startup and functioning. Subsequent years will mvolve appointments or reapJ?ointments of those Commissioners whose terms are expiring and continuing oversight actiVIties, including the issuance of an annual report on the Commission's functioning. Key Contact: Clyde Behney 228-6590. Prospective Payment Assessment Commission The Prospective Payment Assessment Commission (ProP AC) is an independent advisory committee mandated under the Social Security Amendments of 1983 (Public Law 98-21) which reforms the Medicare program payment method for inpatient hospital services. Under the statute, the OTA Director is charged with selecting the Commission members. Initial Commissioners were appointed in 1983 and each year since then the Director has made reappointments or appointed new Commissioners to fill openings created by Commiss10ners' terms expinng. OTA is also required to report to Congress annually on the functioning and progress of the Commission. A panel of outside experts was selected to assist in this process. The fourth of these reports was issued in the past year. Key Contact: Clyde Behney 228-6590. Physician Payment Review Commission The Physician Payment Review Commission (PhysPRC) is also an independent advisory committee mandated under the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1985 (Public Law 99-272). PhysPRC's purpose is to advise Congress and the Executive Branch on possible ways of reforming physician payment under the Medicare program. As with ProPAC, under the statute, the OTA Director is charged with selecting the Commission members. The initial 11 Commissioners were appointed in June 1986, to terms ranging from 1 to 3 years. In October 1986, the Director appointed two new members to the Commission in response to the Sixth Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act (Public
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-123 -Law 99-509) which increased the number of Commissioners from 11 to 13. An annual report is also required on PhysPRC and the second such report has been issued. Key Contact: Clyde Behney 228-6590. Adolescent Health Adolescence is a significant period for physical, psychological, cognitive, and social development, and thus an unportant time for health interventions. Violence and trauma, substance abuse, suicide, teenage pregnancy, sexually transmitted diseases, and chronic physical disabilities and handicapping conditions are among the critical health problems faced by adolescents. The project will assess the health status of adolescents 10 to 18 years old and identify factors that put adolescents at risk for health problems or protect them from such problems. These factors include racial and ethnic backgrounds, socioeconomic status, gender, and develo_pmental stage. The project will address the special needs of rural youth and racial and ethnic minorities. Particular attention will be paid to the availability, effectiveness and accessibility of health services for adolescents, including financing, coordination, and legal and ethical aspects of access. Available data on adolescent health status will be assessed for their usefulness, and the Nation's agenda for research on adolescent health and behavior will be critically reviewed. Possible Impact on Legislation: This assessment could affects actions on the following bills: H.R.24: A bill to amend the Child Nutrition Act of 1966 and the National School Lunch Act to extend certain authorities contained in such Acts through the fiscal year 1995. H.R.124: A bill to authorize the Secretary of Health and Human Services to fund adolescent health demonstration projects. H.R.133: A bill to establish requirements relating to Federally funded child care services. H.R.660: A bill to establish a corporation to administer a program of voluntary national service, and for other purposes. H.R.665: A bill to amend the Drug-Free Schools and Communities Act of 1986 to require that grant funds provided under the Act be used to provide education relating to the use of tobacco products, and to prohibit the sale of cigarettes to minors. H.R.705: A bill to make certain supplemental appropriations in order to fully fund the Anti-Drug Abuse Act of 1988. H.R.717: A bill to establish the American Conservation and Youth Service Corps consisting of the American Conservation Corps and the Youth Service Corps, to provide for education and training of participants in such Corps, to establish the Commission on National Service Opportunities, and for other purposes. H.R.718: A bill to amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to increase Federal excise taxes on tobacco products and to provide that a portion of the revenues from such increase be used for programs to discourage cigarette smoking and tobacco use particularly by youth. H.R.815: A bill to amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to allow a credit for contributions to programs designed to counsel and train school dropouts, and for other purposes. H.R.1013: A bill to amend the Education of the Handicapped Act to extend certain authorities contained in such Act through the fiscal year 1992. H.R.1117: A bill to amend the Public Health Service Act to provide for certain services to pregnant adolescents and adolescent parents, and for other purposes. H.R.1492: A bill to provide assistance in the development of new or improved _programs to help younger persons through grants to the States for community planning, services, and tra1mng; to establish within the Department of Health and Human Services an operating agency to be desi~nated as the Administration on Children, Youth, and Families; and to provide for a White House Conference on Young Americans.
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124 H.R.1536: A bill to amend the Job Training Partnership Act to establish a demonstration program for emplorment opportunities for severely disadvantaged youth, and for other purposes. H.R.1947: A bill t,, amend the Domestic Volunteer Service Act of 1973 to establish a program of grants for the expansion of opportunities for youths to provide community service. H.R.2481: A bill to amend Title XX of the Public Health Service Act to authorize appropriations for tte adolescent family life program. H.R.2614: A bill to t'Stablish a pilot program to encourage college students to serve as mentors for disadvantaged youths. H.R.2881: A bill to amend the Public Health Service Act to establish a program of block grants to the States for the purpose of consolidating Federal programs with respect to maternal and child health. H.R.2976: A bill to amend title 18, United States Code, with respect to Federal juvenile delinquencr, proceedings. S.110: A bill to revise and extend the programs of assistance under title X of the Public Health Service Act. S.120: A bill to amend the Public Health Service Act to reauthorize adolescent family life demonstration projects, and for other purposes. S.230: A bill to establish a remedial education treatment program as an alternative to criminal incarceration for first-time youthful defendants who are determined to be learning disabled as a means of reducing recidivism rates among such defendants. S.896: A bill to amend the Public Health Service Act to aid in the planning, development, establishment and ongoing support of Pediatric AIDS Resource Centers, to provide for coordinated health care, social services, research and other services targeted to HIV infected individuals, and fqr .other purposes. S.1131: A bill to amend title XX of the Public Health Service Act to authorize appropriations for the adolescent family life program. S.1233: A bill to amend the Public Health Service Act to assist communities in developing coalitions to implement a substance abuse prevention and intervention program, and for other purposes. S.1254: A bill to authorize the Secretary of Labor to make grants to public housing agencies for the provision of literacy training, training in basic and employment skills, and support services, and to establish the Gateway Task Force. S.1300: A bill to amend the Job Training Partnership Act to improve the delivery of services to hard-to-serve youth and adults, to establish the Youth Opportunities Unlimited program, and for other purposes. S.1484: A bill to amend the Child Nutrition Act of 1966 and the National School Lunch Act to reauthorize child nutrition programs, and for other purposes. S.AMDT.NO.930: To promote the development of alternative schools for youths with drug problems. S.AMDT.NO.971: To require the Secretary of Health and Human Services to conduct a study of the child and youth social services programs administered or operated within the Office of Human Development Services and the family assistance programs administered or operated within the Family Support Administration. Associated publications: "Indian Adolescent Mental Health" (SR), Fall 1989; "Health Insurance for Adolescents" (Staff Paper), published August 1989 Project Director: Denise Dougherty 228-6590. Estimated publication date: Spring 1990. Requested by: Senate Select Committee on Indian Affairs; Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, Subcommittee on Aviation; Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Subcommittee on African Affairs; OTA's Technology Assessment Board
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-125 Rural Health Care The special problems of health care in rural areas have long occupied a special niche in policies designed to advance the Nation's health. Programs for recruitment, training, and deployment of health care personnel, for constructing health care facilities, and for financing health care, often have included special provisions for rural areas or attempts to mitigate the negative impacts on rural areas of policies primarily designed for and responsive to urban areas. However, rural areas continue to have high numbers of hospital closures, have had limited success in recruiting and retaining health personnel, and have difficulty in providing new medical technologies now commonly available in urban areas. This study will review and evaluate past and current rural health care efforts; examine how medical technologies have been and might be diffused into rural areas; and identify policies that might improve the quality, affordability, and accessibility of rural health care. Possible Impact on Legislation: This study covers issues addressed in several pieces of legislation, including: H.R.130: Emergency assistance to Medicare participating hospitals grants to HMSA/MUA hospitals meeting certain criteria H.R.148: Eliminates caps on MD fees; eliminates the urban/rural differential over 2 years H.R.186: Pay small ( < 100 beds) rural hospitals on cost basis H.R.365: Provide for White House conference on rural development and agriculture H.R.436: Improve EMS and trauma care. State matching grants ($45M) H.R.680: See S 243 H.R. 754: Provides for payments to hospitals from Hospital Indigent Care Assistance Trust Fund (sec. 7510 of IRC) H.R. 762: See S 306 H.R.804: Eliminate urban/rural differential H.R.911: Volunteer Protection Act of 1989 H.R.950: National Rural Health Care Act of 1989 --to improve rural MUA designations; additional rural R&D; direct reimbursement to NP and CNSS; Medicaid to 100% of poverty; grants to States for rural health planning, rural EMS, RHC grants; require rural in health professions training programs H.C.R. 19: Hospital must provide 60-day notice of closure or termination of service H.R.1168: ProVIdes for cost-based reimbursement to small ( <50 beds, 65% Medicare) rural hospitals H.R.1176: Provides coverage of social worker services in RHCs H.R.1270: Allows small ( <60 beds, 70% Medicare) rural hospitals to elect cost reimbursement H.R.1301: Puts ORHP in OASH H.R.1583: Eliminate urban/rural differential over 3 years; pay small ( < 100 beds, 55% Medicare) rural hospitals at cost; special funding for "critical access facilities"; increase transition grants to $25M H.R.1585: A bill to permit nurse-midwife services to be counted towards meeting the staffing requirements for rural health clinics under the medicare program; to provide for the coverage of social worker services in such clinics H.R.1586: A bill to require a study on medicare reimbursement for ambulance services H.R.1587: Rural Emergency Medical Services Improvement Act of 1989 --$45M matching grant (2/1) to States for recruitment/retention/ equiptment/public education in rural areas; study of Medicare payments, R&D (l0M). H.R.1588: Restore tax deduction for interest on HEAL loans incurred by physicians, nurses, and allied health professionals serving in MUAs, HMSAs, or high impact areas H.R.1589: Creates Under Secretary for Rural Health and transfers ORHP to OS H.R.1602: Grants ($10M) to improve rural EMS H.R.1742: Reimburse veterans for services provided at rural hospitals H.R.2246: See S 921
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126H.R.2327: Directs HCFAAdministrator to implem.!nt a transition grant program for transforming rural hospitals into medical assistanct' facilities H.R.2411: Establish new loan rates for rural health care facilities under the Consolidated Farm and Rural Development Act H.C.R. 83: Expresses the sense of Congress that it must act to correct the discrepancies between urban/rural Medicare payments to physicians H.C.R. 125: Expressing sense of Congress that the ?PS urban/rural payment differential be eliminated H.R.2522: Tax credit for physicians, nurses, and PM serving in rural areas; deduction of loan interest for health professionals in medically uncierserved areas; coverage of social workers in rural health clinics; pay reasonable cost to rural hospitals with < 50 beds and 40% Medicare, establish Medicare geographical classification review board H.R.3204: Establishes a matching grant program to encourage States to establish Offices of Rural Health S.10: Provide cost-based reimbursement to small ( < 100 beds; 70% Medicare) rural hospitals for 3 years effective 10/1/89 S.15: Improve EMS and trauma care; $75M (1990-92), establish national clearinghouse; matching grants to States; underserved rural areas to be identified S.35: Rural enterprise zones S.122: Provide coverage for social worker services in RHCs S.203: Improve ground water research and protection S.205: Eliminate urban/rural differential over 3 years S.227: Exempt rural hospitals ( < 150) from PPS S.243: Continues rural referral center designations S.306: Eliminate urban/rural differential over 3 year transition beginning 1992; small rural hospitals ( < 100 beds, 70% Medicaid) paid costs; $25M for transition grant program, medical education demos, nursing education, regional referral centers S.366: Rural Health Manpower Assistance Act of 1989 --Increase incentive payments to physicians in rural HMSAs from 5% to 10%; telecommunication demos (5-10) to hospitals for training MDs in rural HMSAs class 1 or 2; require DHHS to conduct study of supply of rural health workers S.735: Extend classification and improve payments to SCHs S.759: Establishes rural telecommunications fund at REA ($150M) S.817: Establishes Deputy Assistant Secretary for Rural Health with ORH in OASH, establishes National Advisory Committee on Rural Health, authorizes $3.0M for rural research centers and operations S.840: Allow a deduction for education loan interest incurred by doctors, nurses, and allied health professionals while serving in medically underserved areas S.Res. 126: Requires that 4 rural commissioners be added to ProP AC S.C.R. 37: Elimmate urban/rural differential in payments to hospitals S.921: Moves ORHP to OASH and adds agricultural health and safety to function; establishes a policy liaison within HCFA; special emphasis on rural areas for NHSC assignment; 50% of NHSC scholarship and loan repayment funds to NPs; agricultural health and safety education training grant program in CDC; study and model State law for covering uninsured; study of wage index adjustments under PPS S.954: Allows tax deduction of student loan payments during 2-year practice in "applicable rural community" S.959: Makes improvements in the NHSC program and mandates minimum of 450 MDs S.979: Makes 10-15 grants to not more than six States to transform rural hospitals into medical assistance facilities (MAF), defines MAF services and Medicare reimbursement policies S.998: Improve rural medical data and information transmission S.1023: Assist distressed rural hospitals with FmHA community facility loans S.1028: Establish FHA loan rates for health facilities based on per capita income of area S.1036: Rural Partnerships Act. Establishes information clearinghouse; rural medical telecommunications grant program by REA ($15M each)
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127 S.1060: Provide income tax credits to primary health providers in rural HMSAs S.1078: Requires ORHP to market RHC program and provide TA; Eayment for nurse midwife, reduces coverage to 50%, waivers if unable to hire NP/PA/NM; governor can designate shortage areas; automatic certification for CHCs S.1466: Requires that Medicare pay reasonable costs to rural hospitals with < 100 beds and 60% Medicare patient days; extends current Rural Referral Center classifications until such time as national standardized rates are established for urban and rural hospitals S.1550: Includes Rural Health Oinics in Medicare definition of provider, which would grant RHCs appeal rights to Medicare's Provider Reimbursement Review Board Associated publications: "Defining "Rural' Areas: Impact on Health Care Policy and Research" (Staff Paper), published July 1989; "Rural Emergency Medical Systems" (SR), published November 1989 Project Director: Elaine Power 228-6590. Estimated publication date: Spring 1990. Requested by: Senate Rural Health Caucus; Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works; Senate Committee on Ap{)ropriations, Subcommittee on Agriculture, Rural Development and Related Agencres; Senate Select Committee on Indian Affairs Senate Minority Leader SCIENCE, INFORMATION, AND NATURAL RESOURCES DMSION Information Age Technology and Rural Economic Development The concentration of economic activity in urban areas--particularly alon~ the east and west coasts--coupled with increased competition in traditional rural industries has threatened the economic viability of rural America. Innovations in information processing and transmission have increased the potential for the migration of economic activity to rural areas as well as the growth of new indigenous rural businesses. Unfortunately, this potential has not been fully realized. This study will contribute to an understanding of how rural America is affected by the information age. It will also help Congress formulate plans for revitalizing the rural economy in a way that takes advantage of technological developments. In order to identify economic opportunities and P.roblems for rural communities made possible by information technologies, the study will: 1) describe the status of rural America in the information age; 2) assess the current relevant communications technologies and services; 3) analyze current public sector actions; 4) evaluate emerging commumcations technologies and services; 5) describe the ways in which communications technologies may affect rural development; 6) assess the barriers to technological improvements in rural areas; and 7) determine whether technology can foster a new era of economic opportunity in rural areas. Project Director: Linda Garcia 228-6774. Estimated publication date: Winter 1990-91. Requested by: Joint Economic Committee Critical Connections: Communication for the Future Recent advances in information storage and transmission technologies, occurring in a new deregulated and intensely competitive economic climate, are rapidly reconfiguring the Nation's communication networks. The revolution in computers and communication technology has already transformed the regulation and market structure of the industry, dramatically changing the way in which information is created, processed, transmitted, and made available to individual citizens and institutions. These technologies hold promise for
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-128-a greatly enhanced communication system, which can meet the changing commui tication needs of an informationbased society. How these technologies will evolve will
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-129 government programs and policies for assuring researchers of access to advanced mformation technology resources; the adequacy of R&D programs in computing and networking; links between these programs and policies and the international competitiveness of the U.S. information industry; the implications of these technological and institutional changes for broader information policy issues such as intellectual property, national security access controls, and privacy; and finally, the broader implications for Federal science policy of structural chan$es in science and engineering research that may be due to this growms dependence on information technology. OTA will conduct an assessment of the rmpacts of advanced information technology on research, with particular emphasis on Federal programs to provide access to supercomputers and the Federal role in developing a national scientific network. Associated publication: "High Performance Computing and Networking for Science" (BP), published September 1989 Project Director: Fred Weingarten 228-6766. Estimated publication date: Summer 1990. Requested by: House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology; Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportat10n Medical Waste and Other "NonHazardous" Solid Waste Issues As Congress begins the reauthorization process for the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA), additional measures to ensure more effective management of medical wastes and other types of solid wastes, as well as municipal solid waste, will be considered. A number of unresolved issues associated with medical waste management need to be examined further if a more comprehensive medical waste policy is contemplated. Yet, it is useful to consider the medical waste issue in the context of other solid wastes. Combined treatment of medical and some other solid wastes has been suggested, and some of the technologies for treating both waste streams are similar. Addressing potential management problems associated with these solid wastes is considered by many public officials, private industry and public interest $roups as the next item on the Nation's solid waste agenda. OTA has addressed the municipal solid waste issue and completed a preliminary evaluation of medical waste management. This OT A study will address such issues associated with medical waste handling and disposal as comparisons of incineration and alternative management technologies and their associated risks, and waste reduction and recycling options for medical waste management. In conjunction with this, OTA will conduct a preliminary examination of composition, amounts and management of other "non-hazardous" solid wastes. Project Director: Kathryn Wagner 228-6854. Estimated publication date: Fall 1990. Requested by: House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology; House Committee on Energy and Commerce, Subcommittee on Transportation and Hazardous Materials Cleaning Up the Nation's Defense Nuclear Waste and Contamination Since the 1940s, production of nuclear weapons has generated radioactive and hazardous waste. Today there is a large backlo$ of highlevel, transuranic, low-level, hazardous, and mixed waste at the 15 facilities m the Department of Energy's nuclear weapons complex. Thousands of inactive sites and hundreds of surplus structures within the complex are contaminated. There is increasing public concern that these conditions pose unacceptable levels of risk to human health and the environment. DOE estimates it will take more than 20 years at a cost of $50 to $100 billion to process and dispose of the waste, clean up contaminated sites, and decontaminate and decommission surplus facilities. Specific goals, priorities, and strategies for addressing these problems have yet to be
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130established. This assessment will focus on approaches for defining and ranking the problems and identifying effective solutions. The following tasks will be performed: 1) evaluate immediate problems and needs that could benefit most from additional emphasis and resources in the near term; 2) assess technologies for waste mana~ement and minimization and for environmental restoration; and 3) investigate methodologies for setting priorities and allocating resources. Possible Impact on Legislation: A number of bills to provide more oversight of the DOE environmental programs at the weapons facilities have been introduced. Project Director: Peter Johnson 228-6862. Estimated publication date: Spring 1991. Requested by: Senate Committee on Armed Services; House Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries; House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs Climate Change; Ozone Depletion and the Greenhouse Effect In the 1970s, widespread concern about depletion of the ozone layer around the Earth's upper atmosphere led to a ban on chlorofluorocarbon use in aerosols in the United States (as well as Sweden and Canada). The issue retreated from the public view until 1985 when British researchers identified a hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica larger than the continental United States. At the same time, concern over global warming--the greenhouse effect--was gaining attention. New sophisticated Global Circulation Models reaffirmed concerns that increased levels of carbon dioxide, combined with rising concentrations of other gases (methane, chlorofluorocarbons, and nitrous oxide), are likely to raise temperatures between 1 and 4C by the middle of the next century. Such warming will result in a rise in sea level and shifts in rainfall patterns, affecting both marine and terrestrial environments. Until recently, stratospheric ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect were treated as separate issues. However, many gases participate in both phenomena. There is now general scientific consensus that human activities are affecting global climate. While many ongoing national and international efforts are underway attempting to quantify the ma~nitude and timing of these changes, policy responses that can be implemented to deal with such changes are still disputed. OTA proposes to charactenze, economic sector by sector, the major contributors to climate modification for both the developed and developing world. To the extent possible, OTA will identify areas where gains in efficiency, product substitution, conservation or other options can slow climate change. OTA will develop a matrix of possible short-term policy responses to these problems. Linkages to other environmental and economic concerns will be highlighted. Relative ease and expense of implementation will also be evaluated. Associated publication: "An Analysis of the Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete Ozone Layer" (Staff Paper), published December 1988 Project Director: Rosina Bierbaum 228-6845. Estimated publication date: Winter 1989-90. Requested by: Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works; Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Infrastructure Technolo~es: Rebuilding the Foundations Public works infrastructure provides essential services--moving people and goods, supplying water, and disposing of waste. Little disagreement exists about the urgency of repair, maintenance, or new construction of the country's vital infrastructure systems. Their deteriorating capabilities and condition have been documented in more than a dozen national studies since 1980. Despite this consensus, spending on infrastructure has declined from 3.5 to 2.5 percent of gross national product over the past three decades. How best to
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-131-meet the Nation's infrastructure needs has thus become a pressing question at all levels of government. Historically, the United States has built more roads, dams, and water facilities as the country grew, and national policies provide strong incentives for capital intensive projects. Shiftin~ national priorities, however, call into question the public will to continue dev~loping public works systems. Budget constraints and concern over exploitation of land and water resources have combined to focus attention on the need to look for and evaluate other approaches. Current resource, economic, environmental, and political limits suggest that the country may now require policies and programs leading to better or different, rather than more or bigger, systems. OTA has been asked to assess how technological, institutional, and financial alternatives could be combined to meet the challenges posed by infrastructure needs and to identify changes that might be required in the Federal role. Advanced technologies, innovative management techniques, alternative delivery systems, changes in incentives, and other OJ;>tions must be reviewed. The objectives for this study include: evaluating innovative technologies in public works construction, operation, and maintenance, with specific attention to the needs of small systems; assessing limits to solving public works problems through technology and examining nontechnological alternatives; identifying major changes in the Federal role to encourage more efficient and productive public works systems; and identifying changes to Federal program management and financing to lead to more efficient public works infrastructure. Associated publications: "State and Local Programs for Financing and Managing Infrastructure" (SR), Winter 1990; "Advanced Vehicle/Highway Systems and Urban Traffic Problems" (BP), published September 1989 Project Director: Edith Page 228-6939 Estimated publication date: Fall/Winter 1990 Requested by: Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, Subcommittee on Water Resources, Transportation, and Infrastructure; Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation; Senate Committee on Appropriations, Subcommittee on Transportation; House Committee on Public Works and Transportation
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-132-16.D. OTPER SERVICES TO THE CONGRESS 16.D.1. Testimony OTA receives frequent request to testify at Congressional hearings; in fact, testimony is one of the main mechanisms for OTA to deliver information to Congress in a way that matches its specific needs and timing. The increased interest and need for OTA's work has been reflected in committee requests for testimony and briefings from OTA. During fiscal year 1989, the Director, Assistant Directors, Program Managers, and Project Directors testified a total of 36 times. Testimony was given before both House and Senate committees and subcommittees, on such topics as Superfund, Soviet compliance with nuclear testing treaties, grain quality, educating scientists and engineers, access to electricity transmission, motor carrier safety, degradable plastics, and fuel economy. Date 10/06/88 02/03/89 03/08/89 03/09/89 03/09/89 03/14/89 03/22/89 04/10/89 04/10/89 Testimony in Fiscal Year 1989 Committee/Chairman Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Federal Services, Post Office and Civil Service, Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Subcommittee on Surface Transportation, House Committee on Public Works and Transportation Subcommittee on Elementary and Vocational Education, House Committee on Labor and Education Subcommittee on Regulation, Business Opportunities, and Energy, House Committee on Small Business Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Subcommittee on Agricultural Research and General Legislation, Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, House Committee on Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Health, House Committee on Ways and Means Subject/Person Testifying Soviet Compliance with the Nuclear Testing Treaties (Gregory van der Vink) OTA's Background Paper, Assessing Contractor Use in Superfund (Joel Hirschhorn) Hazardous Materials Transportation (Edith Page) Performance Standards for Secondary Vocational Education (Michael Feuer) Trends in Medically Assisted Conception ( Gary B. Ellis) National Energy Act of 1989 (John H. Gibbons and Peter Blair) Grain Quality (Michael Phillips) Increased Efficiency Potential for the U.S. Fleet of Highway Passen~er Vehicles (Steve Plotkin) Care for Cataract Surgery Patients Before and After Surgery (Kerry Kemp)
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-133 04/11/89 Subcommittee on Science, Research, and Educating Scientists and Technology, House Committee on Engineers: Roles of Two-Year Science, Space, and Technolc,gy Colleges (Daryl Chubin) 04/18/89 Subcommittee on Surface Transportation, Senate Committee on Commerce, Motor Carrier Safety (John Andelin and Edith Page) Science, and Transportation 05/01/89 Subcommittee on Post-Secondary Math, Science, Engineering Education, House Committee on Education: A National Need Education (Daryl Chubin) 05/02/89 Subcommittee on Consumer, Senate Increasing the Efficiency of Committee on Commerce, Science, and Automobiles and Light Transportation Trucks --A Component of a Strate$)' to Combat Global Warmmg and Growing U.S. Oil Dependence (Steve Plotkin) 05/04/89 Subcommittee on Aviation, House Aircraft Collision Avoidance Committee on Public and Transportation Technology (Edith Page and Kevin Do part) 05/10/89 Subcommittee on Superfund, Ocean and Importance of Toxic Release Water Protection, House Committee on Inventory Data (Kirsten Environment and Public Works Oldenburg) 05/11/89 Subcommittee on Aviation, House How Effective is FAA? (Edith Committee on Public Works and Page Transportation 05/15/89 Special Committee on Investigations, Indian Health (Denise Senate Select Committee on Indian Dougherty) Affairs 05/16/89 Subcommittee on Defense Industry and Defense Technology Base Technology, Senate Committee on (Alan Shaw) Armed Services 05/23/89 Subcommittee on Procurement and Title 44 and Federal Printin~, House Committee on Information Dissemination: A Admirnstration Technology and Policy Challenge for Congress (Fred Wood) 05/24/89 Subcommittee on Energy and Power, Technical Aspects of Access to House Committee on Energy and Electricity Transmission (Alan Commerce Crane) 05/25/89 Subcommittee on Transportation and Consideration of H.R. 1457, Hazardous Materials, House Committee The Waste Reduction Act (Joel on Energy and Commerce Hirschhorn)
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-134 06/20/89 Subcommittee on Agricultu ~al Research and General Legislation, Sr:nate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Agricultural Research Policy (Michael Phillips) Forestry 06/20/89 Subcommittee on Science, Research, and Supercomputers (Fred W. Technology, House Comrmttee on Weingarten) Science, Space, and Techno1ogy 06/21/89 Subcommittee on Environm~ntal Municipal Solid Waste Protection, Senate Committee on (Howard Levenson) Environment and Public Works 06/22/89 Subcommittee on Transportation and Municipal Solid Waste Hazardous Materials, House Committee (Howard Levenson) on Energy and Commerce 06/22/89 Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs Current Status of Ongoing Studies Relating to Effects of Exposure to Agent Orange (Hellen Gelband) 07 /10/89 Subcommittee on Hospitals and Health Update of Agent Orange Care, House Committee on Veterans' Exposure in Vietnam and Affairs Related Studies (Hellen Gelband) 07/12/89 Subcommittee on Energy and Power, Fuel Economy Potential of U.S. House Committee on Energy and Automobile Fleet (Steven Commerce Plotkin) 07/12/89 Subcommittees on Superfund, Ocean and Research and Protection of Water Protection and Environmental Marine Waters (Howard Protection, Senate Committe on Levenson) Environment and Public Works 07 /13/89 Subcommittee on Science, Research, and Mergers and Acquisitions: Technology, House Committee on Impacts on Research and Science, Space, and Technology Development (Julie Fox Gorte) 07/18/89 Senate Special Committee on Aging and Drug Price Inflation (Jud{ Cost Containment Wagner and Bridget Duf ) 07/18/89 Senate Committee on Governmental Degradable Plastics (Joan Affairs Ham) 07/19/89 Subcommittee on Procurement and Capitol Recycling Plan (Judy Printin~, House Committee on Kowalski) Admimstration 08/01/89 Subcommittee on Environment and Pollution Prevention: Labor, House Committee on Small Opportunities and Issues (Joel Business Hirschhorn)
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09/13/89 09/14/89 -135 -Subcommittee on Courts, Intellectual Property, and Administration of Justice, House Committee on the Judiciary Senate Select Committee on Indian Affairs Transgenic Animal Patent Reform Act (Kevin O'Connor) Indian Mental Health Issues (Denise Dougherty)
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136 16.D.2. Formal Briefin~ OTA regularly receives inquiries from congressional offices and committees regarding issues that are the subject of past or current OTA work. Responses by OTA are provided both orally or in brief written communications. The following is a listing of congressional committees and a sampling of topics. Appropriations Subcommittee on Transportation and Related Agencies Truck and Air Safety Environment and Public Works Infrastructure Technologies Subcommittee on Water Resources, Transportation, and Infrastructure Infrastructure Study Status Report Foreign Relations Soviet Compliance with the Nuclear Testing Treaties Government Affairs Biotechnology in a Global Economy: Options for U.S. Strategy Subcommittee on Government Information and Regulation Reauthorization of the Paperwork Reduction Act Energy and Commerce Patenting Life Education and Labor COMMITTEES OF THE HOUSE Subcommittee on Elementary, Secondary and Vocational Education Performance Standards for Secondary School Vocational Education Judiciary Subcommittee on Courts, Intellectual Property and Administration of Justice Patenting Life Public Works and Transportation Subcommittee on Surface Transportation Hazardous Materials Transportation Science. Space and Technology Patenting Life Ways and Means Subcommittee on Health Measuring Health Effectiveness and Quality
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