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CONTENTS Section Page Budget in Brief ....................................................................................................................................................... 1 1. Schedules A, B, and C --OT A Request and Analysis of Change ................................................................... 3 2. Explanation of Changes Shown on Schedule C ................................................................................................. 6 3. Summary of Agency Request ............................................................................................................................... 7 4. Overview of OT A's Role ...................................................................................................................................... 8 5. OT A's Accomplishments During Fiscal Year 1992 .......................................................................................... 8 6. Changes in OTA's Prior Plans for FY 1992 ..................................................................................................... 12 7. OTA's Goals for FY 1994 ................................................................................................................................... 13 8. OT A's Workload and Product Data ................................................................................................................. 18 9. Staffing of OTA ................................................................................................................................................... 21 10. Division A: Energy, Materials, and International Security .......................................................................... .23 1. Schedules Al, Bl, and Cl .......................................................................................................................... 23 2. Explanation of Changes Shown on Schedule Cl. ................................................................................... 26 3. Role of the Division .................................................................................................................................. .27 4. Accomplishments of the Division ............................................................................................................. 27 5. Changes in Prior Plans for FY 1992 for the Division ........................................................................... .31 6. FY 1993 and FY 1994 Priorities for the Division .................................................................................. .31 7. Staffing of the Division .............................................................................................................................. 36 11. Division B: Health and Life Sciences ............................................................................................................... 37 1. Schedules Al, Bl, and Cl .......................................................................................................................... 37 2. Explanation of Changes Shown on Schedule Cl .................................................................................... 40 3. Role of the Division ................................................................................................................................... 41 4. Accomplishments of the Division ............................................................................................................ .41 5. Changes in Prior Plans for FY 1992 for the Division ............................................................................ 44 6. FY 1993 and FY 1994 Priorities for the Division ................................................................................... 44 7. Staffing of the Division ............................................................................................................................. .49 12. Division C: Science, Information, and Natural Resources ............................................................................ 50 1. Schedules Al, Bl, and Cl ......................................................................................................................... .50 2. Explanation of Changes Shown on Schedule Cl .................................................................................... 53 3. Role of the Division .................................................................................................................................. .54 4. Accomplishments of the Division ............................................................................................................ .54 5. Changes in Prior Plans for FY 1992 for the Division ............................................................................ 57 6. FY 1993 and FY 1994 Priorities for the Division ................................................................................... 57 7. Staffing of the Division .............................................................................................................................. 61 13. Division G: General and Administrative ......................................................................................................... 62 1. Schedules Al, Bl, and Cl. ......................................................................................................................... 62 2. Explanation of Changes Shown on Schedule Cl .................................................................................... 65 3. Role of the Division ................................................................................................................................... 66 4. Staffing of the Division .............................................................................................................................. 67 14. Ten Year Quantitative Data .............................................................................................................................. 68 15. Object Class Definitions ..................................................................................................................................... 69 16. Supplementary Information A. Publications Printed and Delivered During Fiscal Year 1992 .............................................................. 71 Formal Assessment Reports ..................................................................................................................... 71 Background Papers .................................................................................................................................... 83 B. Publication Information ............................................................................................................................. 88 C. Assessments in Progress and Related Legislation ................................................................................. 90 D. Other Services to the Congress ............................................................................................................... 111 1. Testimony ......................................................................................................................................... 111 2. Formal Briefings .............................................................................................................................. 114
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OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT FISCAL YEAR 1994 BUDGET IN BRIEF TOTHE SUBCOMMITIEES ON LEGISLATIVE BRANCH APPROPRIATIONS The funds requested represent the best estimate of the Technology Assessment Board of what is required to meet the needs for the second session of the 103rd Congress. FY 94 Budget Request: Includes: $2,000 for the Prospective Payment Assessment Commission authorized in 42 U .S.C. 1395ww $2,000 for the Physician Payment Review Commission authorized in 42 U.S.C. 1395w-1 $20,000 for Monitoring of Mandated Veterans Studies authorized in P.L. 96-151, P.L. 98-160, and P.L. 99-272 $2,000 for the Advisory Panel on Alzheimer's Disease authorized in P.L. 99-660 and P.L. 102-507 $100,000 for the DoD Independent Research and Development Contracts Evaluation authorized in P.L. 102-190 $30,000 for the Review of DO Ed's study of its role in support graduate education authorized by P.L. 102-325 FY 93 Budget Request: $23,668,000 FY 93 Appropriation: ESTIMATED INCREASE IN FY 94 REQUEST OVER FY 93 BUDGET BASE Salaries and Expenses $22,925,000 $21,025,000 $1,900,000 For salaries and expenses necessary to carry out the provisions of the Technology Assessment Act of 1972 (Public Law 92-484), including official reception and representation expenses (not to exceed [$3,500] $5.500 from the Trust Fund), and expenses incurred in administering an employee incentive awards program (not to exceed [$1,800] $2,500), rental of space in the District of Columbia, [ and those expenses necessary to carry out the duties of the Director of the Office of Technology Assessment under 42 U .S.C. 1395ww, and 42 U .S.C. 1395w-1] [$21,025,000] $22,925.000: Provided, That none of the funds in the Act shall be available for salaries or expenses of any employee of the Office of Technology Assessment in excess of 143 staff employees: Provided further, That no part of this appropriation shall be available for assessments or activities not initiated and approved in accordance with section 3( d) of Public Law 92-484[, except that funds shall be available for the assessment required by Public Law 96-151]: Provided further, That none of the funds in this Act shall be available for salaries or expenses of employees of the Office of Technology Assessment in connection with any reimbursable study for which funds are provided from sources other than appropriations made under this Act, or shall be available for any other administrative expenses incurred by the Office of Technology Assessment in carrying out such a study. 1
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OBLIGATION SUMMARY OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT Salaries and Expenses (in thousands of dollars) Fiscal Year Fiscal Year 1993 1994 Estimated (Estimated) (Estimated) Change General and Administrative Fixed Costs 6,301 6,661 360 Planning 208 223 15 Testimony, Follow-on, Special Analyses 755 809 54 Prospective Payment Assessment Commission 1 2 1 Physician Payment Review Commission 4 2 (2) Veterans Studies 12 20 8 Intercity Bus Access for Individuals With Disabilities 82 (82) Advisory Panel on Alzheimer's 2 2 DOD Independent Research and Development Contracts 16 100 84 Review of DOE's Study on It's Role in Support of Graduate Education 30 30 John Heinz Competitive Excellence Award Candidates Evaluation 1/ 0 Formal Assessments: Continuation of Assessments Initiated in Prior Fiscal Years 11,559 12,359 800 New Assessments to be Initiated 2,087 2,717 630 Total Formal Assessments 13,646 15,076 1,430 Total 21,025 22,925 1,900 1/ This mandate imposes a potential annual burden of $339,000 on OTA's flexibility to initiate new work. 2
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1. SCHEDULES A, B, AND C -AGENCY REQUEST AND ANALYSIS OF CHANGE Schedule A CATEGORIES 1. Breakdown by Organization: Energy, Materials, and International Security Division Health and Life Sciences Division Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division General and Administration Division Total 2. Breakdown by Object Class: 11 Personnel Compensation 12 Personnel Benefits 13 Benefits to Former Personnel 21 Travel 22 Transportation of Things 23 Rent, Communications & Utilities 24 Printing and Reproduction 25 .1 Consulting Services 25.2 Other Services 26 Supplies and Materials 31 Equipment 32 Land and Structures 42 Insurance Claims and Indemnities Total Office of Technology Assessment Summary By Organization and By Object Class FY92 FY93 ACTUAL ESTIMATE DOLLARS DOLLARS STAFF ($000) STAFF ($000) 36 4,958 36 4,956 36 4,882 36 4,908 36 4,919 36 4,860 35 6,262 35 6,301 143 21,021 143 21,025 10,629 11,444 2,185 2,370 16 51 316 368 112 110 2,138 2,252 531 541 3,065 2,701 1,307 761 305 245 417 182 21,021 21,025 3 FY94 ESTIMATE NET CHANGE 93/94 DOLLARS DOLLARS STAFF ($000) STAFF ($000) 36 5,421 0 465 36 5,422 0 514 36 5,421 0 561 35 6,661 0 360 143 22,925 0 1,900 12,348 904 2,659 289 52 1 391 23 110 0 2,314 62 560 19 3,262 561 792 31 253 8 184 2 22,925 1,900
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Schedule B i I I MANDATORY PAY I I AND RELATED i COSTS I I I DOLLARS I ($000) I CATEGORIES STAFF 1. Breakdown By Organization: Energy, Materials, and International Security Division 343 Health and Life Sciences Division 268 Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division 319 General and Administration Division 264 Total 1,194 2. Breakdown By Object Class: 11 Personnel Compensation 904 12 Personnel Benefits 289 13 Benefits to Former Personnel 1 21 Travel 22 Transportation of Things 23 Rent, Communications & UtilitieE 24 Printing and Reproduction 25 .1 Consulting Services 25 .2 Other Services 26 Supplies and Materials 31 Equipment 32 Land and Structures 42 Insurance Claims and IndemnitieE Total 1.194 Office of Technology Assessment Analysis of Change to Budget Base By Organization and by Object Class PROGRAM TYPE CHANGES EQUIPMENT, ALTERATIONS, PRICE LEVEL MAINTENANCE, CHANGES LEGISLATION WORKLOAD REPAIRS, ETC. DOLLARS DOLLARS DOLLARS DOLLARS STAFF ($00()) STAFF ($000) STAFF ($000) STAFF ($000) 32 90 55 191 43 199 96 226 480 23 62 19 81 480 31 8 2 226 480 4 TOTAL CHANGES DOLLARS STAFF ($00ffi 465 514 561 360 1,900 904 289 1 23 62 19 561 31 8 2 1 900
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Schedule C Office of Technology Assessment Summary Detailed Analysis of Changes Appropriation, 1993 Adjustments to Appropriation Budget Base, 1994 I. Adjustments to Base A. Mandatory Pay and Related Costs 1. Annualization of January 1993 Cost-of-Living Adjustment 2. January 1994 Cost-of-Living Adjustment 3. Merit Increases and Promotions 4. Health Benefit Cost Increases 5. Contribution to Retirements Funds 6. Benefits to Former Employees 7. Locality-Based Pay B. Price Level Changes 1. Travel Related Inflation of 6.25% 2. Building Lease Increases 3. Telephone Services Inflation of 5 % 4. Miscellaneous Communications Inflation of 3 % 5. Printing Inflation of 3. 7 % 6. Library of Congress Services Inflation of 8.2% 7. Consultant Services Inflation of 3 % 8. Other Services Inflation of 3 % 9. Supplies and Materials Inflation of 3 % 10. Equipment Inflation of 3 % C. Program Type Changes 1. Legislation 2. Workload a. Additional Assessments and Studies 3. Equipment, Alterations, Maintenance, Repairs, Etc. II. Net Increase/Decrease Requested III. Total Appropriation Request, 1994 5 Calculation of Base Amount Staff ($000) 143 21,025 143 21.025 1994 Request Amount Staff ($000) ... 1,194 129 223 407 38 95 1 301 ... 226 23 52 6 4 19 7 81 24 8 2 ... ... ... 480 480 ... .. ... 1.900 143 22,925
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2. EXPLANATION OF CHANGES SHOWN ON SCHEDULE C Office of Technology Assessment Agency Summary A. MANDATORY PAY AND RELATED COSTS 1.Annualization of January 1993 3.7% Cost-of-Living Adjustment 2.January 1994 2.2 % Cost-of-Living Adjustment 3. Merit increases and promotions averaging 3 % agency-wide 4.Annualization of January 1993 9.5% plus estimated January 1994 9. 5 % health benefit increases 5. Increase in retirement contributions (FERS) 6. Increase in unemployment compensation ?.January 1994 2.9% locality-based pay adjustment B. PRICE LEVEL CHANGES 1. Travel inflation rate of 6.25 % applied to base 2.Building lease escalation based on 30% of change in CPI-W for space, plus an estimated 3.7% increase in operating costs and property taxes 3. Telephone services inflation rate of 5 % applied to base 4. Miscellaneous communications inflation rate 3 % applied to base 5. Printing and publications inflation rate of 3. 7 % applied to base 6. Interagency agreement with the Library of Congress for financial services increase of 8.2 % for COLA's, locality-based pay adjustment and within-grade increases 7. Consultant services inflation rate of 3 % applied to base 8. Other services inflation rate of 3 % applied to base 9. Supplies and materials inflation rate of 3 % applied to base 10. F.Quipment inflation rate of 3 % applied non ADP equipment base C. PROGRAM TYPE CHANGES 1. Legislation 2. Workload a. Additional assessments and studies 3.Equipment, Alterations, Maintenance, Repairs, Etc. 6 Staff Amount (000) 129 223 407 38 95 1 301 Staff Amount (000) 23 52 6 4 19 7 81 24 8 2 Staff Amount (000) ... 480 ..
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Schedule D 3. SUMMARY OF AGENCY REQUEST Office of Technology Assessment FY 1994 Budget Request Calculation of Base Amount Staff ($000) Appropriation, 1993 143 21.025 Proposed Changes for FY 1994 Mandatory Pay and Related Costs 1,194 Price Level Changes 226 Program Type Changes Legislation Workload 480 Equipment, Alterations, Maintenance, Repairs, Etc. Total Proposed Changes 0 1,900 FY 1994 Bud2et Reauest 143 22,925 7
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4. Overview of OTA's Role Technological capabilities will determine, in large part, whether America leads or follows other economically and scientifically powerful nations in the decades following the end of the Cold War. With 20 years' experience, OTA has the proven ability to assist Congress's deliberations on the Nation's vision of the future and to help link the science and technology enterprise to accomplishment of national goals. The foremost goal of citizens and elected officials appears to be restoring the resilience and competitiveness of the U.S. economy. OTA studies such as Competing Economies: America, Europe, and the Pacific Rim, U.S. Mexico Trade: Pulling Together or Apart, and After the Cold War: Living with Lower Defense Spending help put the Nation's economic problems in perspective and provide important technological guidance and options for policy makers. The 103rd Congress will undoubtedly pursue legislation to ensure improvements in the quality of life and human health. OTA's assessments on education, e.g., Technologies for Adult Literacy, and health, e.g., Does Health Insurance Make a Difference? and Special Care Units for People with Alzheimer's and Other Dementias, establish a factual basis and broad context for the debates. As Congress addresses the critical goals of personal, national, and international security, OTA's studies ranging from Police Body Annor Standards and Testing to Building Future Security: Strategies for Restructuring the Defense Technology and Industrial Base will provide essential grounding in basic technical knowledge and opportunities. Improved environmental quality and sustainable use of natural resources will likely remain high on Congress's agenda. The breadth and depth of OT A's publications in this area --Green Products By Design: Choices for a Cleaner Environment, Trade and Environment: Conflicts and Opportunities, Building Energy Efficiency, Forest Service Planning: Accommodating Uses, Producing Outputs, and Sustaining Ecosystems, and A New Technological Era for American Agriculture to name just a few -reflect committees' requests to OTA to develop analyses and options that can serve as a common resource to all of the Congress as its tries to resolve these issues. OT A's work in FY 1994 will continue to reflect the explicit needs of the committees of jurisdiction. The bipartisan, bicameral Technology Assessment Board (TAB) will guide OTA's work with committees and shape the agency's agenda through the assessment proposal approval process. OTA serves as a shared resource for Congress, providing nonpartisan analysis of scientific and technological issues -issues intrinsic to all important policy decisions -in a cost effective way. 5. OTA's Accomplishments During Fiscal Year 1992 During FY 1992, OT A delivered 52 publications to Congress, including assessment reports, background papers, and administrative documents (seep. 71). As of September 30, 1992, 42 TAB-approved studies and 17 special responses were in progress. As an integral part of carrying out assessments, OTA also provided expert advice, briefings, testimony, and results of OTA assessments matched to the specific needs of the requesting committees and the congressional agenda (seep. 111). OT A reports represent comprehensive synthesis and analysis on some of the most controversial and costly issues faced by Congress, covering, for example, maintaining a strong defense in the aftermath of the Cold War, developing global standards for high technology equipment, the research and development agenda of the pharmaceutical industry, and U.S. vulnerability to oil import disruptions. These studies directly reflect the expressed needs and priorities of committees of the House and Senate. During the year, OTA served over 80 different committees and subcommittees of both houses, typically in response to bipartisan requests. Relation of Work to Legislative Activities OTA's role is neither to promote nor to discourage the development or the application of any particular technology or legislation, but rather to help Congress determine whether or when some form of Federal government participation may make sense. OTA identifies and clarifies options; exposes misleading, unsupportable, or incorrect information; and works to raise the level of understanding in the debate about expensive and controversial technical issues. 8
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In each section on accomplishments in OTA's divisions, we identify some activities during fiscal year 1992 that illustrate the link between OTA's work and specific congressional activity. Please see the following pages for this information: page Energy, Materials, and International Security Division Energy and Materials ................................................................................................................................ 28 Industry, Technology, and Employment ................................................................................................. 29 International Security and Commerce .................................................................................................... 30 Health and Life Sciences Division Biological Applications ............................................................................................................................. 42 Food and Renewable Resources ............................................................................................................. 42 Health ......................................................................................................................................................... 43 Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division Telecommunication and Computing Technologies ............................................................................. .55 Oceans and Environment ........................................................................................................................ .55 Science, Education, and Transportation ................................................................................................ .56 Mandate Avoidance OTA works closely with members of TAB and the Appropriations Committees to maintain the authority of TAB to set the agenda of the agency and the best use of OT A's limited resources for the whole Congress. Because demand for OTA's assistance exceeds the resources made available to the agency, some committees attempt to initiate studies through new legislation rather than request studies through the Board ( as was contemplated in OTA's enabling legislation). Mandates are strongly discouraged as a mechanism to obtain OT A's help, and potential mandates are often avoided when we are able to work with the interested parties prior to passage of legislation into law. More than 60 bills containing mandates for OTA were introduced in the 102d Congress. OTA's work with the committees prevented all but seven mandates from being enacted, and two of the enacted mandates acknowledge the need for TAB approval before resources are devoted to the mandated activity. The five enacted mandates that do not recognize TAB's authority are: P.L.102-172 P.L. 102-190 P.L.102-325 P.L. 102-429 Defense Department Appropriations for FY 1992 This law requires DoD to work with OTA in conducting an examination of Israeli antiterrorism technologies. This consultative effort is expected to require only minimal resources. National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Years 1992 and 1993 This law requires OT A to conduct a study to determine the effect of regulations issued by DoD on payment of costs of contractors for independent research and development and for bids and proposals. The regulations were to be issued by April 1, 1992, and OTA's study is due no later than December 1, 1995. This effort would require significant FY 1994 resources. Higher Education Amendments of 1992 This law requires the Secretary of Education to consult with OTA in conducting a study which will provide an assessment of the information currently collected on graduate education and will identify what additional information should be generated to guide the Department of Education in defining and executing its role in the support of graduate education. This consultative effort will require minor funding in FY 1994. Export Enhancement Act of 1992 This law establishes the John Heinz Competitive Excellence Award and requires OT A to evaluate candidates. If undertaken, it will represent a major drain on 9
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P.L.102-507 resources in FY 1993 and FY 1994. As noted on page 2 the activity represents a potential drain of $339,000 in FY 1993 and FY 1994 on OTA's ability to initiate new work. Alzheimer's Disease Research, Training, and Education Amendments of 1992 This law extends OT A's requirement (first established by P.L. 99-660) to appoint members to the Advisory Panel on Alzheimer's Disease and make annual reports on the Panel's activities. This activity has been approved and will not require significant FY 1994 resources. Continuing Mandated Functions OTA's study on Intercity Bus Access for Individuals With Disabilities, mandated by P.L.101-336, the American for Disabilities Act, is expected to be delivered to TAB in March 1993. It will have cost over $450,000 over fiscal years 1992 and 1993. OTA continues to monitor veterans studies: P.L. 96-151 requires OTA to monitor and evaluate certain studies by the Department of Veterans Affairs; P.L. 98-160 requires OTA to monitor certain Federal research activities with regard to veterans exposed to atomic radiation; P.L. 99-272 requires OTA to monitor certain Federal research activities related to women veterans. OT A continues to appoint the members of the Prospective Payment Assessment Commission (ProPAC) and the Physician Payment Review Commission (PhysPRC). ProPAC is an independent advisory committee mandated under the "Social Security Amendments of 1983" (P.L. 98-21, Section 601) that reform the Medicare program payment method. The law requires the OTA Director to select the Commission members. The first Commissioners were appointed in 1983. Six Commissioners' terms expired in March 1992, and the Director made four reappointments and two new appointments. PhysPRC is also an independent advisory committee and was mandated by the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1985 (P.L. 99-272). PhysPRC's purpose is to advise Congress and the Executive Branch on possible ways of reforming physician payment under the Medicare program. The law requires the OT A Director to select the Commission members. Initial appointments to the 13-member Commission were made in 1986, for terms ranging from one to three years. In April of 1992, the Director reappointed three Commissioners and appointed two new Commissioners. Interagency Coordination In carrying out OTA's mission as a shared resource of the committees of the Congress, our staff cooperate and interact extensively with congressional members and staff and with the staffs of other Federal agencies, the private sector, and institutions around the world. This extensive networking serves to avoid duplication and to increase Congress's analytical resource base as it enables OTA to utilize the most up-to-date information available. In particular, OTA and the three other congressional support agencies have adopted processes that ensure fuller utilization of each other's expertise -in administrative as well as substantive areas. Senior staff from OTA, CRS, CBO, and GAO meet regularly to discuss topics on which each agency works, such as trade, education, health care, energy, agriculture, environment, transportation, and defense, in order to eliminate duplication and ensure that resources are devoted to each facet of an issue. A few recent examples of OT A networking that resulted in notable benefits to the Federal, State, and local government include: o GAO is using OT A's assessment of the defense industrial base in its assessment of multiproduct production. In addition, OTA staff are periodically requested to review GAO's strategic plans for examining Air Force and other defense programs. o OT A's companion projects, After the Cold War and Building Future Security, have helped GAO staff with background information on issues of military base closure, military conversion in Eastern Europe, and a federal clearinghouse for state and local governments. o Based on research done for After the Cold War, OTA staff have helped CBO staff develop research 10
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methods for measuring the location of defense spending. o OT A conducted a symposium on testing and assessment for GA O's human resources/ education staff. o OTA's 1992 report, Outpatient Immunosuppressive Drngs under Medicare, was used by CBO to help cost out a bill introduced in Congress on the topic. o CRS, GAO, the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA), and the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation of HHS (ASPE) have used the background materials and contractor document for OTA's first case management workshop in developing their research projects on case management. These agencies have adopted the operational definition of Case Management developed for OT A's study, and as a result, the findings of the various studies will address the same topic. o GAO and CBO have provided budget data to OTA for its analysis of Earth Observation Systems, and the three agencies work closely together with the congressional committees of jurisdiction. o Based on the OTA report Perfonnance Standards for the Food Stamp Employment and Training Program, an OTA staff member was asked to be a member of a study group to assist HHS in setting performance standards for the JOBS program. HHS organizers distributed the OTA report to the group. o Based on the OTA reports Making Things Better, Competing Economies, and Serious Reduction of Hazardous Waste, OTA staff have assisted the New Mexico Manufacturing Productivity Center with information on what other states are doing in manufacturing modernization and in industrial hazardous waste reduction. o Based on the report Competing Economies, OT A staff have provided background material to the Bureau of Research and Policy of the New York State Department of Economic Development to help them prepare their statutorily required annual statewide economic development strategic plan. o The Department of Health and Human Services cited findings of OTA's report, Evaluation of the Oregon Medicaid Proposal, to support their widely publicized decision not to grant the State a Medicaid waiver. The State of Oregon cited some other findings of the same OT A report in rebuttal to the Administration's decision. The State has also been making some adjustments to its prioritized list based on OT A's critique of the list. o The National Institute on Disability Research and Rehabilitation used OT A's 1982 report on Technology and Handicapped People to frame a recent Federal Register notice concerning its research priorities in the area of evaluation of disability-related devices. o OTA staff met with officials of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) to discuss OT A's study of DNA patenting and its role in fulfilling U.S. commitments in the issue area. As a result, rather than conduct its own study, OSTP is encouraging international institutions to cooperate with OT A's study. o The National Research Council (NRC) specifically undertook studies of automotive fuel economy and nuclear power to follow up on OTA assessment reports. OTA staff were fully involved in the NRC effort, often providing briefings on OT A's work. o The Department of Defense used OT A's study of the defense industrial base in developing their industrial base program. o Two OTA reports, Redesigning Defense and Building Future Security, have become textbooks at the Industrial College of the Armed Forces. o Officials responsible for development of standards for body armor in Canada and the United Kingdom delayed standard-setting in anticipation of OT A's report on the issue. o NASA's Earth Observing Systems program is carefully weighing one of the cost-reducing options outlined in OT A's background paper, Affordable Spacecraft: flying instruments individually ( or in small groups) on separate spacecraft rather than flying them collectively on a larger spacecraft. o An OT A staffer member chaired an Expert Panel convened by an Interagency Task Force on Telecommunications in Education for OSTP. o The data analysis model from OT A's report, Safe Skies, was used as one guide in reorganizing FAA's Office of Aviation Safety. 11
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6. Changes in OTA's Prior Plans for FY 1992 During FY 1992, OTA essentially accomplished its goals, with approved modifications, negotiated reductions in some projects, and additions to others to meet the changing needs of Congress and accommodate the inherent uncertainty of research. Also, during the year OTA's General and Administration activities were restructured in a way that allowed a greater share of resources to flow to the analytical divisions. The chart below shows the variations in actual obligations for the OTA divisions for FY 1992 from the planned obligations for FY 1992 provided on Schedule A in the FY 1992 budget justification. The chart on page 16 provides a summary by object class of projects and actual expenditures for FY 1992. Changes in OTA' s Prior Plans FY92 FY92 ESTIMATE ACTUAL PERCENT DMSION ($000) ($000) CHANGE Energy, Materials, and International Security 4,860 4,958 2.0 Health and Life Sciences 4,860 4,882 0.5 Science, Information, Natural Resources 4,860 4,919 1.2 General and Administration 6.445 6.262 -2.8 Total 21,025 21 021 0.0 12
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7. OTA's Goals for FY 1994 Over the past 20 years, OTA has provided Congress with hundreds of reports on emerging technologies and with policy options for governing in a time of rapid technological change. Congress's agenda for FY 1994, and the events that could dominate its attention, are only partially predictable. This means that OTA must carefully manage its shrinking capacity for "flexible response" by continuing to sustain expertise in key issues involving science and technology. We fully expect that a number of current issues will remain high on the agenda and may become increasingly important: the strengthening of the U.S. civilian industry to compete in a global economy; education and training; improved ways to assure quality health care; the peaceful transformation of centrally planned economies into market economies; the management of local, regional, and global environments; restructuring the executive programs ( e.g., energy, space) and reevaluating priorities; and changing U.S. defense efforts as the international security environment changes. OTA's appropriation has remained approximately level, in constant dollars, since FY 1985. Our FY 1994 budget request reflects an effort to hold on to the capability we now possess. OTA's primary goal is to ensure that the committees of Congress understand technological developments and how the legislative process can affect these developments and help the Nation accomplish its aims. To do that, we must be able to attract superior analysts from all scientific and technological disciplines, and we must provide our analysts with the tools (e.g., computing power) necessary to maintain productivity. The budget request presented here would enable OTA to sustain its present level of effort. In addition, OTA is requesting restoration of $480,000 to support contractual analyses and advisory panel meetings and workshops; this figure would enable OT A to devote approximately 23 percent of its research divisions' budgets to contracting, which we believe is minimal to meet the needs of a small agency with analytical capabilities across a diverse span of disciplines. Priorities in Program Work OTA's agenda is driven by the explicit needs of congressional committees. Therefore, we cannot predict in detail the new assessments that will be undertaken in a given year. In response to the Appropriations Committees' request, however, OTA has prepared a list of subjects that are representative of the of assessments we may be asked to undertake. Such an exercise, using a wide variety of information sources, helps sharpen the discussions between OT A staff and congressional committees. It also reflects one of the charges Congress assigned to OTA: foresight about emerging technology. The most recent list (see below) was derived from a much larger group of subjects that have come to OTA's attention via its own work, requests and inquiries already received from committees, the technical literature, interactions with members and staff of Congress, and from peers in the Executive Branch and outside of the government. Because OTA works hard to be responsive to changing congressional needs, work actually begun in a given year is often significantly different from OT A's prospective list, but new work usually does contain some of the identified issues. (Brief descriptions of the candidate studies are provided in the sections on divisions' priorities on pages 31, 44, and 57). Candidate Areas for New Assessments in Fiscal Years 1993 and 1994 The topics given in this list have been identified by congressional committees, OT A, and its advisers as technical issues the Congress will face over the next several years. Note: 1) This list is not given in order of priority; 2) the actual number of issues we can undertake as full assessments is not more than 1 in 3 or 4 of those listed. Energy and Materials Energy Research and Development: Responding to Changing Needs Social Costs of Energy Consumption Energy and Urban Design Natural Gas: U.S. Supply Availability Materials Use and the U.S. Economy Sustainable Stewardship: Technology and Multiple Resource Management of Federal Lands and Resources 13
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Industry. Technology. and Employment Working and Learning: New Strategies for Young People Technology, Productivity, and Employment in the Service Sector Technology and Trade with Developing Economies Dismantling Amenities Cleaner Manufacturing Technologies and U.S. Manufacturing Competitiveness Employment Implications of Environmental Regulation International Security and Commerce Multinational Monitoring and Verification in the New World Order Disaster Response Technology Trends and Military Missions New Priorities in U.S. Space Programs Theater Missile Defense Long-Term Military Technologies Implementing the Chemical Weapons Convention Biological Applications Biological Privacy Organ Transplantation: New Technologies, New Issues Performance Enhancing Drugs Reproductive Technologies Technologies for Estimating Benefits of OSHA Regulations Violence: Assault on the Public Health Food and Renewable Resources Impacts of Increased Agriculture Trade on the Environment Technologies to Use and Reuse Agricultural Water Efficiently Pest Control in America: To 2000 and Beyond Implications of Endangered Species Protection for Management of Renewable Resources in America Technologies for Ecological Restoration Resource Management and Public Education in the National Parks Health Information Technology and the Health Care System Managed Health Care: Cost Saving and Health Effects AIDS Studies Health Technology Under Global Health Care Budgets Health Care and the Inner City Prescription Drugs and Health Care Reform Telecommunication and Computing Technologies Networked Information and Individual Privacy and Security Wireless Communication Services Online Digital Libraries: Accessibility, Usability, Copyright & Security Advanced Visualization Technology: Multimedia, Virtual Reality & Cyberspace Mission-critical Computer Software for the Federal Government Future Directions in Advanced Computers 14
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Oceans and Environment Fisheries Decline and Non-point Source Pollution Effectiveness of Cleanup of Contaminated Sites Dealing With Natural Disasters Environmental Protection and the Economy Key Issues in Environmental Health Drinking Water Quality in the U.S. Science. Education. and Transportation School to Work Transition Teachers and Technology Technology and Restructuring Intermodal Systems Surface Transportation R&D Structural Arrangements for R&D Policymaking 15
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CATEGORIES 2. Breakdown by Object Class: 11 Personnel Compensation 12 Personnel Benefits 13 Benefits to Former Personnel 21 Travel 22 Transportation of Things 23 Rent, Communications & Utilities 24 Printing and Reproduction 25 Other Services 26 Supplies and Materials 31 Equipment 32 Land and Structures 42 Insurance Claims and Indemnities Total Office of Technology Assessment Fiscal Year 1992 Estimate vs Actual By Object Class FY92 FY92 CHANGE ESTIMATE ACTUAL EST VS ACT DOLLARS DOLLARS ($000) ($000) PERCENT 10,925 10,629 (2.7 2,297 2,185 (4.9 10 16 60.0 374 316 (15.5 131 112 (14.5) 2,358 2,138 (9.3 479 531 10.9 4,049 4,372 8.0 231 305 32.0 171 417 143.9 21,025 21,021 (0.0' 16 CHANGE EST VS ACT DOLLARS ($000) (296 (112; 6 (58 (19 (220 52 323 74 246 (4
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31. EQUIPMENT (Increase of 144% or $246K) o Upgrade of workstations in research programs. OTA is totally dependent at the research level on advanced computer technology. Rapidly changing software technology for enhanced productivity required improvement in workstation hardware. For example, the research advantages of working in a Windows software environment required the upgrade of 286 machines to 386 or higher machines, and discount purchasing in FY 1992 reduced future costs for implementing such a change. o Completed a two-year program for upgrade of token ring circuit boards in the local area network in one year. Completion of the program improved network speed and throughput and supported the added information processing load after incorporating the Internet network and the planned Capnet network into the OTA local area network. By completing the planned upgrade in one year instead of two years, we were able to realize a reduction in future costs and to take advantage of staff and workload opportunities this year to more efficiently implement the upgrade. 17
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8.A. Agency Workload and Product Data Projects Requested or Mandated and Approved During the Fiscal Year I FY1992 I actual I FY1993 (est.) I FY1994 I (est.) I !projects requested by conmittees (1) I !projects approved by TAB I !projects undertaken as special responses I or incorporated in ongoing work I I I I I 20 (2>1 17 I I I I 40 18 20 40 20 20 I I I I I I I I I !projects delayed to another fiscal year I 1 I 2 2 I 1==================================================1=========1=========1=========1 I I I I I I Legislative mandates enacted in fiscal year (3) I I Legislative mandates active in fiscal year I s I 2 I o I I I I I I 4 I s I 7 I I I I I I 1==================================================1=========1=========1=========1 (1) These nLlllbers are representative of assessments formally requested in writing. They do not represent the total nLlllber of request letters for an assessment (which may come from several different conmittees) and do not include the significant nLlllber of requests that are refused or referred elsewhere before reaching the formal request stage. (2) TAB's approval of one study was automatically rescinded when the National Academy of Sciences decided to undertake a similar study. (3) OTA's appropriations language states, "That no part of this appropriation shall be available for assessments or activities not initiated and approved in accordance with section 3(d) of Public Law 92-484." The previously mandated studies will be continued. OTA will continue to discourage new mandates with the assistance of the Technology Assessment Board and the Appropriations Conmittees. 18
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8.B. Agency Workload and Product Data Projects Ongoing, Started, or Coq:>leted During the Fiscal Year 1990 I 1991 1992 1993 1994 I actual I actual I actual I (est.) I (est.) I -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------, !Projects in Process Beginning of Fiscal Year (1>1 35 I 39 I 43 I 42 I 36 I 1--------------------------------------------------1---------1---------1--------1--------1--------1 !Projects Approved by TAB During the Fiscal Year I 16 I 16 I 20 I 20 I 20 I 1--------------------------------------------------1---------1---------1--------1--------1--------1 !Reports Published During the Fiscal Year (2) I 33 I 27 I 31 I 29 I 23 I 1==================================================1=========1=========1========1========1========1 !Projects in Process -End of Fiscal Year I 39 I 43 I 42 I 36 I 36 I ================================================================================================= (1) Projects in Process counts all TAB-approved activities. A project may produce more than one assessment report, or may produce no reports at all, therefore nl.lllbers are not additive. Projects in press or under TAB review are counted. (2) "Reports" includes assessment reports and aaninistrative documents. 19
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8.C. Agency Workload and Product Data Type and Nl.lllber of Products Coq:,leted During the Fiscal Year IFY 1992 IFY 1992 jFY 1993 IX changelFY 1994 IX changej I Products I (est.) I actual I (est.) I 92-93 I (est.) I 93-94 I 1-------------------------1--------1--------1--------1--------1--------1--------1 !Reports (1) I 24 I 31 I 29 I (6>1 23 I (21>1 1-------------------------1--------1--------1--------1--------1--------1--------1 !Other Publications (2) I 25 I 21 I 26 I 24 I 20 I (23>1 1-------------------------1--------1--------1--------1--------1--------1--------1 !Testimony I 50 I 31 I 50 I 61 I 50 I O I 1=========================1========1========1========1========1========1========1 !Total Products I 99 I 83 I 105 I 27 I 93 I (11>1 =============================================================================== (1) Reports includes full assessment reports, special reports, and aaninistrative documents. (2) Other Publications refers to Background Papers. 20
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Schedule E 9. STAFFING OF THE AGENCY Office of Technology Assessment Summary Direct and Indirect Employees NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES DOLLARS ($000) FY92 FY93 FY94 FY92 FY93 CLASSIFICATION ACTUAL ESTIMATE ESTIMATE ACTUAL ESTIMATE Staff Allocation (nermanent nositions) 143 143 143 11.1 Full-Time Permanent Full-Time Permanent 139 139 139 8,330 8,761 Part-Time Permanent 1/ 7 (4) 7 (4) 7 (4) 254 263 11.3 Other Than Full-Time Permanent Temporary 2/ 50 67 67 2,034 2,384 Intermittent/Consultants 22 19 19 11 36 25.2 Other Services (Contracts for on-site nersonal services) 3/ 27 16 15 1132 203 1/ Number of individuals and full-time equivalent employment in ( ). 2/ OTA's support services contract was terminated on 9/30/92 and replaced by 16 temporary employees. 3/ Includes individuals whose services are obtained under contract performing on-site services (in agency workspace) for six months or more during a twelve month period. 21 FY94 ESTIMATE 9,465 271 2,569 37 209
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Schedule F Office of Technology Assessment OBJECT CLASS 25.0 SERVICE CONTRACTS (INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT) NUMBER OF CONTRACTS DOLLARS ($000) Type of service FY92 FY93 FY94 FY92 FY93 FY94 orovided under contract ACTUAL ESTIMATE ESTIMATE ACTUAL ESTIMATE ESTIMATE In House 16 7 7 463 203 209 Panel/Work Group 826 1,386 1,386 497 859 885 Research Contracts 294 222 285 2,105 1,639 2,168 Support Services 1 ... ... 669 ... ... NFC Services 1 1 1 20 21 22 Library of Congress 1 1 1 68 80 87 Purchase Orders 498 500 515 550 660 683 TOTAL* 1.637 2117 2,195 4 372 3,462 4 054 This includes the total number of contracts and the total dollars under object class 25. 22
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Schedule Al 10. DMSION A: ENERGY, MATERIALS, AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY 1. SCHEDUIBS Al, Bl, AND Cl FOR THE DMSION Office of Technology Assessment Energy, Materials, and International Security By Organization and By Object Class FY92 FY93 FY94 ACTUAL ESTIMATE ESTIMATE NET CHANGE 93/94 DOLLARS !DOLLARS DOLLARS DOLLARS CATEGORIES STAFF ($000) STAFF ($000) STAFF ($000) STAFF ($000) 1. Breakdown by Organization: Energy, Materials, and International Security Division 36 4,958 36 4,956 36 5,421 0 465 Total 36 4,958 36 4,956 36 5,421 0 465 2. Breakdown by Object Class: 11 Personnel Compensation 3,075 3,292 3,552 260 12 Personnel Benefits 639 701 784 83 13 Benefits to Former Personnel 0 21 Travel 84 113 120 7 22 Transportation of Things 7 10 10 0 23 Rent, Communications & Utilities 6 4 4 0 24 Printing and Reproduction 167 193 200 7 25 .1 Consulting Services 802 546 652 106 25.2 Other Services 80 37 38 1 26 Supplies and Materials 45 37 38 1 31 Equipment 53 23 23 0 32 Land and Structures 42 Insurance Claims and Indemnities Total 4,958 4,956 5,421 465 -23
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Schedule Bl I I CATEGORIES 1. Breakdown By Organization: Energy, Materials, and International Security Division Total 2. Breakdown By Object Class: 11 Personnel Compensation 12 Personnel Benefits 13 Benefits to Former Personnel 21 Travel 22 Transportation of Things 23 Rent, Communications & Utilities 24 Printing and Reproduction 25 .1 Consulting Services 25 .2 Other Services 26 Supplies and Materials 31 Equipment 32 Land and Structures 42 Insurance Claims and Indemnities i Total Office of Technology Assessment Energy, Materials, and International Security Division Analysis of Change to Budget Base By Organization and by Object Class PROGRAM TYPE CHANGES EQUIPMENT, MANDATORY PAY ALTERATIONS, AND RELATED PRICE LEVEL MAINTENANCE, COSTS CHANGES LEGISLATION WORKLOAD REPAIRS, ETC. DOLLARS DOLLARS DOLLARS DOLLARS DOLLARS STAFF ($000) STAFF ($()()(}) STAFF ($()()(}) STAFF ($000) STAFF ($000) 343 32 90 343 32 90 260 83 7 7 16 90 1 1 343 32 90 24 TOTAL CHANGES DOLLARS STAFF ($000) 465 465 260 83 7 7 106 1 1 465
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Schedule Cl Office of Technology Assessment Energy, Materials, and International Security Division Detailed Analysis of Changes Appropriation, 1993 Adjustments to Appropriation Budget Base, 1994 I. Adjustments to Base A. Mandatory Pay and Related Costs 1. Annualization of January 1993 Cost-of-Living Adjustment 2. January 1994 Cost-of-Living Adjustment 3. Merit Increases and Promotions 4. Health Benefit Cost Increases 5. Contribution to Retirements Funds 6. Locality-Based Pay B. Price Level Changes 1. Travel Related Inflation of 6.25% 2. Printing Inflation of 3.7% 3. Consultant Services Inflation of 3 % 4. Other Services Inflation of 3% 5. Supplies and Materials Inflation of 3 % C. Program Type Changes 1. Legislation 2. Workload a. Additional Assessments and Studies 3. Equipment, Alterations, Maintenance, Repairs, Etc. II. Net Increase/Decrease Requested III. Total Appropriation Request, 1994 25 Calculation of Base Amount Staff ($000) 36 4,956 36 4.956 1994 Request Amount Staff ($000) ... 343 37 65 118 11 25 87 ... 32 7 7 16 1 1 ... ... ... 90 90 ... .. ... 465 36 5,421
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10.2. EXPLANATION OF CHANGES SHOWN ON SCHEDULE Cl FOR DIVISION A Office of Technology Assessment Energy, Materials, and International Security Division A. MANDATORY PAY AND RELATED COSTS Staff Amount (000) l.Annualization of January 1993 3.7% Cost-of-Living Adjustment 37 2. January 1994 2.2 % Cost-of-Living Adjustment 65 3.Merit increases and promotions averaging 3% agency-wide 118 4.Annualization of January 1993 9.5% plus estimated January 1994 9. 5 % health benefit increases 11 5. Increase in retirement contributions (FERS) 25 6.Januarv 1994 2.9% locality-based pay adjustment 87 B. PRICE LEVEL CHANGES Staff Amount (000) 1. Travel inflation rate of 6.25 % applied to base 7 2. Printing and publications inflation rate of 3. 7 % applied to base 7 3. Consultant seivices inflation rate of 3 % applied to base 16 4. Other seivices inflation rate of 3 % applied to base 1 5. Supplies and materials inflation rate of 3 % applied to base 1 C. PROGRAM TYPE CHANGES Staff Amount (000) 1. Legislation ... 2.Workload a. Additional assessments and studies 90 3. Eauipment, Alterations, Maintenance, Reoairs, Etc. .. 26
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10.3. Role of the Energy, Materials, and International Security Division The Energy, Materials, and International Security Division comprises three Programs: Energy and Materials; Industry, Technology, and Employment; and International Security and Commerce. The Energy and Materials Program is responsible for assisting the Congress in understanding the technological possibilities for developing our energy and materials resources and the consequences of these developments for society. In this way, the Program can help the Congress ensure rational resource development such that economic growth is maintained, undesirable side effects are kept to a minimum, and the resource base is sustained for future generations. The Program covers those technologies that concern the extraction, delivery, and use of energy and materials. Although primarily directed at domestic resources, the Program also is concerned with world markets and policies, including imports and exports of energy and materials. The Industry. Technology, and Employment Program examines how technology affects the ability of U.S. industry to contribute to a healthy national economy. Its responsibilities include consideration of the competitiveness of U.S. industries in international markets, trade and economic development issues, the number and nature of employment opportunities, needs for worker education, training and retraining, and ways to ease adjustment in structural economic transitions. The ITE Program is concerned with the competitive position of both basic and new industries, with the development and dissemination of pre-competitive technologies, and with the quantity, nature, and quality of jobs. The International Security and Commerce Program deals with national security, space technology, international relations generally, and international technology transfers. The Program's work in national security includes an assessment of likely impacts of technological considerations on national security, which includes international stability, diplomacy, alliance relations, and arms control, as well as deterrence and defense. Assessment of defense industrial/technological base issues is an increasing part of ISC's work. The work on space technology involves a range of issues, such as space transportation, international cooperation and competition in civilian space activities, and space debris, in which technological progress, civilian exploration, commercial uses of space, and national security must be reconciled. ISC's work in technology transfer combines several perspectives: the national security and foreign policy considerations that lie behind export controls, a concern for the health and competitiveness of U.S. industry in international markets; and a concern for the objective of managing technology transfer in such a way as to contribute to favorable international economic development. 10.4. Accomplishments of the Energy, Materials, and International Security Division In FY 1992, the Energy, Materials, and International Security Division published 15 assessment reports: o U.S. Oil Import Vulnerability: The Technical Replacement Potential o Improving Automobile Fuel Economy: New Standards, New Approaches o Competing Economies: America, Europe and the Pacific Rim o Performance Standards for the Food Stamp Employment and Training Program, o After the Cold War: Living With Lower Defense Spending o Technology Against Terrorism: Structuring Security o Fueling Development: Energy Technologies for Developing Countries o Building Energy Efficiency o Retiring Old Cars: Programs to Save Gasoline and Reduce Emissions o Building Future Security: Strategies for Restructuring the Defense Technology and Industrial Base o Police Body Armor Standards and Testing o Police Body Armor Standards and Testing: Vol. II o Monitoring Limits on Sea-Launched Cruise Missiles o Green Products by Design: Choices for a Cleaner Environment o U.S. Mexico Trade: Pulling Together Or Pulling Apart? 27
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The Division also published 5 background papers: o American Military Power: Future Needs, Future Choices o NASA's Office of Space Science and Applications: Process, Priorities and Goals o Trade and Environment: Conflicts and Opportunities o Lessons in Restructuring Defense Industry: The French Experience o Remotely Sensed Data From Space: Distribution, Pricing, and Applications In addition, the Division testified 14 times. Listed below are several examples of direct legislative use of the Division's work: Energy and Materials 1. Based on the findings of the reports Energy Efficiency in the Federal Government: Government by Good Example? and Building Energy Efficiency, OTA interacted extensively with the Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs, which led to Chairman Glenn's introduction of S. 1040, the Government Energy Efficiency Act of 1991. OT A interacted with staff of the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Energy and Power in development of the Federal energy portions of H.R. 776, the National Energy Efficiency Act of 1992. Throughout the year, OTA staff briefed Senate and House staff on prospects and policy options for improving Federal energy efficiency. The report was cited heavily in the February Senate Floor debate over S. 2166, The National Energy Security Act of 1992. OTA's Staff Memorandum on "Opportunities for Compact Fluorescent Lamps in Federal Facilities," which was completed as a follow-up to the Federal energy efficiency report, was also cited extensively in the February Senate Floor debate over Federal energy provisions of S. 2166, and was inserted verbatim by Senator Glenn into the Congressional Record on February 6, 1992 (S. 1180-1181). 2. OT A's report, Improving Automobile Fuel Economy: New Standards, New Approaches, was used extensively throughout the 102nd Congress in the draft legislative proposals to increase Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards, which were being considered as amendments to comprehensive energy legislation being debated in both the House and Senate (S. 2166, The National Energy Security Act of 1992 and H.R. 776, The National Energy Efficiency Act of 1992). In the course of this work, OTA provided extensive briefings and testimony for the Senate Committees on Energy and Natural Resources and on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, and the House Committee on Energy and Commerce. OTA staff also informally analyzed draft CAFE legislation for Senators Bryan, Johnston, and Gore and provided extensive briefings for Senators Johnston and Levin. Throughout the year, OTA staff briefed a wide range of Senate and House members and staff on alternative fuels and automotive fuel economy and other energy technology issues being addressed in the assessment and testified several times on these subjects in the last year. Several of the OTA options have provided middle ground in the debate over CAFE standards. OTA continues to be consulted frequently by Committee staff and Members on this topic. 3. OTA's report, U.S. Oil Import Vulnerability: The Technical Replacement Capability, was widely cited by Senators on both sides during the cloture debate on S. 1220, the National Energy Security Act of 1991 and in the subsequent February 1992 floor debate over the revised bill, S. 2166. During the course of the study, OT A provided informal technical briefings for Senate and House committee staff on technologies and policy initiatives for reducing oil imports to assist them in drafting legislation. Finally, the OTA report was also cited in Senate consideration of H.R. 776 the House version of the energy bill in August 1992. One of the report's policy options --establishment of a process for setting clear national energy policy objectives with quantitative indicators of progress, and periodic review by Congress and the Executive Branch -made its way into S. 1018, a bill to establish national energy policy goals, and H.R. 776 as amended by the Senate. OT A staff continue to respond to requests for information and clarification on the report and its subject matter for congressional staff. 4. Building on the fmdings of OTA work on the biological effects of electromagnetic fields completed in the course of the assessment, Electric Power Wheeling and Dealing: Technological Considerations for Increasing Competition, and the background paper, Biological Effects of Electromagnetic Fields, throughout the 102nd 28
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Congress OTA staff were consulted by staff of the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology as they drafted of legislation on federal research efforts on biological effects of electric and magnetic fields (EMF) and on the appropriate level, scope, and structure of federal research efforts. 5. As follow-up delivery of the Report, Fueling Development: Energy Technologies for Developing Countries, OTA provided background for legislation on foreign aid and trade policy related to energy technology through a series of briefings to Committee and Members' staff. These included a staff briefings with the House Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs, Subcommittee on International Development, Trade, Finance, and Monetary Policy. The report was used by Subcommittee staff in drafting in H.R. 3428, ''The International Development, Trade, and Finance Act of 1991," to authorize U.S. capital contributions to a number of international financial institutions. 6. In the course of preparation of the report, Green Products by Design: Choices for a Cleaner Environment, OTA staff were consulted frequently by the staff of the House Energy and Commerce Committee's Subcommittee on Transportation and Hazardous Materials as they have drafted legislation reauthorizing the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). OTA staff provided the Subcommittee with briefing materials on toxic use reduction, as well as a critique of their draft RCRA bill. House Science, Space, and Technology Committee's Subcommittee on Environment convened a hearing shortly after the release of the report to consider R&D legislation. 7. In the course of preparing the report, Retiring Old Cars: Programs to Save Gasoline and Reduce Emissions, OT A staff were consulted by both House and Senate staff regarding legislative proposals aimed at removal of older cars from the U.S. fleet. The OTA work contributed to the analysis of costs and benefits of alternative legislative proposals, in particular legislation introduced by Sen. Roth. Building on the OTA analysis, OTA staff reviewed implementation problems associated with various options and the potential effects on oil use of the Senator's proposed legislation granting CAFE credits to automakers participating in retirement programs. 8. OT A's assessment report, Electric Power Wheeling and Dealing: Technological Considerations for Increasing Competition, was cited extensively in the early legislative discussions and hearings in the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Energy and Power affecting the regulation of electric utilities such as proposals to amend the Public Utility Holding Company Act, the Public Utilities Regulatory Policy Act, and the Federal Power Act included in the House and Senate versions of comprehensive energy legislation considered in the 102nd Congress. 9. OTA's reports, New Electric Power Technologies: Problems and Prospects for the 1990s, Nuclear Power in an Age of Uncertainty, and Starpower: The U.S. and International Quest for Fusion Energy continue to be used by energy R&D authorizing committees as reference sources. In particular, they were referred to frequently in the House Committee on Science and Technology's Subcommittees on Energy and on Environment authorization hearings on the DOE R&D budget. In addition OTA staff were consulted frequently by Committee staff in the consideration of related bills being considered by the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources and the House Subcommittee on Energy and Power. Industry. Technology. and Employment 1. Based on research done for Making Things Better and Competing Economies, OTA was able to make substantial contributions --briefings, consultations, and document reviews --to development of the comprehensive legislation, the American Technology and Competitiveness Act of 1992 (H.R. 5100). 2. Frequent references to Competing Economies appear in both the Science, Space and Technology Committee's report to the Budget Committee on the 1993 budget and in Chairman Brown's remarks on the floor of the House. The Committee's report quotes and adopts OTA's conclusion on the future of U.S. competitiveness absent changes in government policies and draws from policy options in technology development, technology diffusion, trade, and taxes. 29
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3. The report by the Committee on Government Operations on Japan's economic policy toward the highperformance computing industry extensively references Competing Economies on, among other topics, the technology of supercomputers, the policies of the Japanese government to develop Japan's supercomputer industry, and the Japanese response to the 1987 Supercomputer Agreement. 4. Since its release in February, After the Cold War: Living with Lower Defense Spending has received extraordinary Congressional attention. In particular, OTA has been consulted on an ongoing basis by the Senate Democratic Defense Conversion Task Force headed by Sen. Pryor (who calls OTA's assistance invaluable) and has briefed the Senate Republican Defense Conversion Task Force headed by Sen. Rudmann. One notable briefing included a talk given at the weekly luncheon of the Democratic Policy Committee, which was attended by some 40 members. 5. After the Cold War: Living with Lower Defense Spending was used intensively and had many impacts in the strategic framework of legislation and in specific provisions. Many of the options of the report became law --especially in the area of investment for growth. The legislative vehicles were the Defense Authorization and Appropriations Acts. On the technology side, an outstanding feature of the law was an appropriation of $100 million for Federal support of state and local technology extension services open to all small and medium sized manufacturing firms -not just defense firms. 6. In Introducing S.2554, the Technical Skills Enhancement Act, Senator Rockefeller stated, "The Office of Technology Assessment published an excellent report in 1990 on worker training [Worker Training: Competing in the New International Economy]. [The OTA] report takes an in-depth look at all the training issues, including technology transfer. The report states: 'State and Federal industrial extension services are slowly learning that small firms need more than just the latest hardware -they need help in benefiting from the technology which includes training the workers .. .' My bill is a natural, next step in the direction suggested by OTA. .... The Technical Skills Enhancement Act draws upon Options in Worker Training, which suggest ways to combine training with technology transfer and industrial extension services, and discuss the need for a single clearinghouse to disseminate best practice information on training. 7. The analysis in Worker Training of the need for workforce training consortia and collection of data on training influenced provisions on these subjects in H.R. 3507, the proposed American Industrial Quality and Training Act. 8. In preparing S. 2633, introduced by Senator Dole in April 1992, the U.S. Department of Labor drew heavily on Worker Training. OT A's findings on the weaknesses of U.S. training relative to competitors such as Japan, Germany, Korea, and Canada were used to develop the bill's proposal for a comprehensive overhaul of the Federal-State employment and training system. 9. Based on the trade work OTA has done in Competing Economies and in Trade and Environment, OTA assisted staff of the Subcommittee on Fisheries and Wildlife Conservation and the Environment to understand the GA TT implications of potential Administration legislation limiting wild bird imports that the Committee wanted, but that the Administration had put on hold because of potential GA TT problems. The Committee decided to go ahead with its own legislation limiting imports. The legislation was passed (P.L. 102-440). International Security and Commerce 1. OT A's study of the defense industrial base study had direct impact on S. 3114 and Conference Report H.R. 102-966 that became the Defense Authorization Act for FY93. 2. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee reprinted OT A briefing materials and the summary of Verification Technologies: Measures for Monitoring Compliance with the START Treaty in its START hearings prints. 30
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3. OTA testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the relevance of Verification Technologies: Cooperative Aerial Surveillance in International Agreements to the Open Skies Treaty. 4. OT A's background paper, Remotely Sensed Data from Space: Distribution, Pricing, and Applications, focused on the different approaches to data pricing and distribution policies outlined in H.R. 3614, and S. 2297, bills to amend the Landsat Commercialization Act of 1984. It had a role in resolving differences, resulting in the passage of P.L. 102-555, the Land Remote Sensing Policy Act of 1992. 10.5. Changes in Prior Plans for FY 1992 for the Energy, Materials, and International Security Division During Fiscal Year 1992, the Energy, Materials, and International Security Division essentially accomplished its goals, with approved modifications and additions to meet the changing needs of Congress. These changes reflect the inherent uncertainty of research and the attendant need to be able to make adjustments. (Please see the chart on page 12 for the breakdown of the differences in estimated and actual Division spending for FY 1992.) 10.6. FY 1993 and FY 1994 Priorities for the Energy, Materials, and International Security Division A Division's work is determined by the expressed needs of Congressional Committees, so we cannot safely predict an agenda, but an illustrative list of subjects that are representative of the kinds of new assessments that we may be asked to undertake can be prepared. Such an exercise, using a wide variety of information sources, helps sharpen the discussions between OTA staff and Congressional Committees. It also reflects one of the charges Congress assigned to OTA: foresight about emerging technology. Of course each Division can undertake only a few new assessments each year, so this list should be viewed only as representative of potential subjects for the assessments that the Energy, Materials, and International Security Division may be asked to undertake in Fiscal Years 1993 and 1994. Because OTA works hard to be responsive to changing Congressional needs, new work is often significantly different from OTA's prospective list, but it usually does contain some of the identified issues. Energy and Materials ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT: RESPONDING TO CHANGING NEEDS The Federal Government spends about 230 million dollars per year on energy efficiency R&D, and about 2650 million dollars per year on energy supply R&D. The energy efficiency research includes transportation, buildings, industry, and utilities. A rapidly changing external environment has shifted the efficiency-related R&D needs of the nation, but it is not at all clear that DOE's R&D planning methodology allows for these changes to be reflected in the R&D portfolio. In this project OTA will explore (1) how Congress and DOE allocates R&D funds both within sectors and across sectors, (2) alternative methods to allocate these funds (for example, by looking at how other R&D organizations allocate their funds), and (3) provide options to ensure that allocation of R&D funds can respond to changing national needs while still providing the long-term stability needed to bring technologies to commercial application. SOCIAL COSTS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION Energy policymakers frequently make choices -through R&D funding, tax policy, regulatory changes, etc. among energy systems without a clear understanding of their comparative overall social costs, especially those costs not captured in our current market economy. Decreasing energy security, faltering economic growth, and environmental degradation are making such a cost accounting ever more important if choices are to be made that are sensitive to externalities not captured in the market. In this study, OT A would examine and review past 31
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and present attempts at establishing such methods examine the prospects for devising a credible and appropriate methodological framework appropriate to U.S. policy making for evaluating these comparative social costs of energy systems. OT A would then examine how this framework might be applied to selected cases in the United States to establish some baseline estimates of these social costs. ENERGY AND URBAN DESIGN This study would evaluate how energy use, environmental impacts, and related systemwide capital investment and operating costs are influenced by urban design and how urban design is influenced by Federal, State, and Local government policy. Zoning, real estate laws, and other factors may strongly influence a city to develop with a high rise urban core of office buildings surrounded by far flung suburbs. The private-vehicle based urban design that results by default from these processes has high capital costs and energy use. For example, per capita fuel use for transport is four times greater for U.S. cities than for European cities, while at the same time, many believe that European cities are more livable. The U.S. urban form also largely excludes such options as mass transit, district heating and cooling, and others. NATURAL GAS: U.S. SUPPLY AVAILABILITY Recent changes in the market and regulations governing natural gas will have an uncertain impact on the costs and availability of this resource, which currently supplies about 25 percent of US primary energy needs. Recent changes such as the continued deregulation of natural gas prices, disputes over long-term supply contracts, the development of a natural gas futures market, and FERC Order 636 circumstances have changed considerably in recent years. In this study, OT A would review the current and projected conditions of natural gas uses and markets in the United States, giving special attention to the impacts that recent changes will have on the major market participants ( driller, pipeline operator, utility, and consumer). The study would analyze technologies and technical issues that could have an impact on these major parties. The study would help distinguish both obstacles and opportunities to improve the technical and economic prospects of this major domestic energy source. MATERIALS USE AND THE U.S. ECONOMY The consumption of materials has historically been one of the principal determinants in effecting economic growth. For most of this century, materials requirements have closely correlated with increases in industrial production. However, the use of materials like steel, aluminum, cement, and lumber per unit of GNP ("materials intensity") has leveled off or declined in recent decades. This "dematerialization" has been attributed to a variety of causes: saturation of traditional consumer markets compared with markets for knowledge-intensive products and services; increasing use of more efficient, light weight materials such as high strength alloys and plastics; and structural changes in the economy from heavy manufacturing to services. SUSTAINABLE STEWARDSHIP: TECHNOLOGY AND MULTIPLE RESOURCE MANAGEMENT OF FEDERAL LANDS AND RESOURCES Over one third of the Nation's land and even more of its mineral wealth are publicly owned. Under Federal land management laws, many federal lands are to be administered under principles of multiple use -balancing resource development with recreation, protection of wildlife and habitat, and watershed preservation, as examples. This study would look at the adequacy and effectiveness of natural resource land management and planning requirements and how they are implemented by federal land managers. How well do land managers do in collecting and analyzing data on mineral resources on lands they control. To what extent are environmental protection and multiple use considerations integrated into land managers decisionmaking about both short-term and long-term resource development. Are there more efficient and cost effective technologies and methods that land managers can use in developing resource management plans and priorities. How well do existing approaches balance the multiple uses of public lands and resources, while protecting environmental and other values for which these lands are held? 32
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Industry, Technology and Employment WORKING AND LEARNING: NEW STRATEGIES FOR YOUNG PEOPLE Young people going to work face poor economic prospects: an average unemployment rate 3 times greater than that for adults over age 25, and declining real earnings. A growing proportion of families headed by youth have incomes below the poverty level. The low quality of training provided to many young people, and the generally poor jobs open to many of them, contribute to declining U.S. competitiveness. Our major international competitors in both Europe and Asia have well-developed systems for employing and training young people. This study would include: assessment of experiments in work experience for high school students; examination of jobs currently available to young people lacking a college diploma and the career prospects offered by these jobs; analysis of the training employers provide to workers under the age of 21; assessment of the potential of instructional technology; and policy options for the Federal government and other interested parties ( e.g., the States, community colleges, employers, unions). The assessment would examine training as a vehicle for job restructuring, higher productivity, and enhanced international competitiveness. TECHNOLOGY, PRODUCTMTY, AND EMPLOYMENT IN THE SERVICE SECTOR Technology has the potential to generate substantial improvements in productivity, service quality and adaptability in the service sector. But this potential is so far apparently largely unrealized, at least by conventional measures of productivity. Since the service sector now employs about 70 percent of U.S. workers, many of them in low wage, dead end jobs, its apparent low productivity could be acting as a drag on overall U.S. productivity and standard of living. As the service sector's share of employment rises, transforming dead end jobs into higher paying ones with opportunities for career advancement is increasingly important to U.S. workers. This assessment would examine current and alternative ways of organizing the service sector and their implications for the creation of large numbers of good jobs. It would consider how policy might influence corporate business strategies so that new technology and workers' skills complement each other. The study would build on the preliminary work on jobs in the service sector in U.S.-Mexico Trade: Pulling Together or Pulling Apart? and in International Competition in Services. This assessment would go beyoqd both by making much more concrete high and low productivity /high and low skill ways of organizing work and labor markets in a number of service sectors. This assessment would help fill a gap in policy development that stems from the past and current emphasis on manufacturing and manufacturing jobs. TECHNOLOGY AND TRADE WITH DEVELOPING ECONOMIES Because of the decline of many traditional forms of development assistance, and because the end of the Cold War has reduced the motivation for aid, a growing number of Third World countries may find themselves falling further behind the developed economies. Furthermore, flexible automation, which reduces the direct labor content in manufactured goods, could either help or hinder the development prospects of Third World countries. As government-to-government aid declines in relative importance, MNCs may emerge as the primary agents of development, with consequences to the developing countries and to the U.S. that are as yet poorly understood. And because development requires exporting, the U.S. market will continue to be a target for goods from developing countries. As the NAFT A debate illustrates, the consequences include continuing protectionist pressures, even though Third World development also means new markets for U.S. goods and services. Policies to be explored in this assessment might include re-evaluation of U.S. foreign assistance policies, ways to encourage productive investment by MNCs and by local sources, human capital formation, institutional capabilities for technology development, and how to deliver turnkey packages of affordable education, transportation, health and environmental protection amenities. DISMANTLING AMENITIES The recent OTA report Competing Economies: America, Europe and the Pacific Rim documented the economic evidence that the U.S. is falling behind its international competition. But there are criteria of success and welfare other than economic measures such as export share, average incomes and rate of growth of GNP. In those too, the U.S. has cause for concern. Streets are unsafe, dirty, and pockmarked with potholes, libraries 33
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close, schools decay, businesses curtail or eliminate health care plans, and environmental concerns persist. In particular, U.S. firms worry about how seemingly out of control costs of health care affect their international competitiveness, while a substantial segment of the U.S. population has no health insurance. This assessment would attempt to quantify the extent to which firms and governmental bodies in the U.S. are dismantling amenities in an effort to meet global competition and to match expenditures to tax revenues. The assessment would explore less expensive alternatives to providing traditional amenities, and would investigate the feasibility of setting up a set of non-economic indicators that might help to more accurately describe the well-being of the Nation than economic indicators alone are capable of doing. CLEANER MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGIES AND U.S. MANUFACTURING COMPETITIVENESS The demands of meeting environmental regulations in the U.S. can adversely affect U.S. manufacturing competitiveness, particularly if firms invest heavily in end of pipe treatment, rather than changing to cleaner manufacturing processes. This assessment will analyze the potential effects of cleaner and more energy efficient technologies on U.S. manufacturing competitiveness. The assessment will examine the extent to which new, cleaner process technologies such as powder coating paints, direct steel making, no-clean soldering, and dry process vacuum coatings can lower manufacturing costs, or improve product quality, or both. In addition, it will examine how practices accompanying cleaner technology ( e.g., workforce participation and training, focus on reduced defects and better maintenance, and continuous improvement of the production process) affect firm competitiveness. The assessment will analyze the degree to which U.S. firms have adopted leading edge cleaner technologies, particularly as they compare to U.S. industry leaders and to foreign firms. The assessment will identify barriers to faster adoption, and will examine the effectiveness of U.S. and foreign government policies to develop and diffuse clean and energy efficient manufacturing process technologies. EMPLOYMENT IMPLICATIONS OF ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION This assessment would seek to improve our understanding of the environment-jobs interaction, and would examine both jobs subject to international competition and those relatively shielded from such competition. The assessment would develop options aimed at ameliorating job loss in industries that might be adversely affected by environmental regulations, and options to support increased quantity and quality of employment in cleaner industrial production. Technology and R&D policies, environmental regulatory approaches, worker training and adjustment policies, regional economic development policies, taxation, and land use regulation might all significantly influence job-environment interactions and thus assist in making the twin goals of economic and environmental improvement complementary rather than adversarial. International Security and Commerce MULTINATIONAL MONITORING AND VERIFICATION IN THE NEW WORLD ORDER Future arms control agreements are likely to be multilateral, necessitating verification procedures that are open and multinational. This study would assess benefits and costs to the United States--political, military, and economic--of various forms of multilateral verification of arms control agreements; assess implications for international cooperative security arrangements. DISASTER RESPONSE Examine alternatives for responding to natural and manmade disasters in the United States and abroad, such as strategic stockpiling, enhanced international organizations, new technological developments, new roles for military forces. Discuss implications for international relations of a major role for the U.S. military in international disaster relief efforts. 34
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TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND MILITARY MISSIONS Assess how technology has developed ( and is developing) to perform various broad defense functions ( e.g., sea control and denial, air control, ground attack and occupation), providing a basis for Congress to re-examine the allocation of roles and missions among the branches of the Armed Services. NEW PRIORITIES IN U.S. SPACE PROGRAMS Focusing on the growing internationalization of space efforts, the end of the east-west cold war competition, and important trade/industry issues, this study will examine the implications of competition and cooperation for foreign relations, industrial relations, technology development, and solving environmental problems. THEATER MISSILE DEFENSE In view of the potential proliferation of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction, assess the potential for effective defenses against shortto intermediate-range missiles of adversaries possessing various levels of technological sophistication; assess the utility of such defenses. LONG-TERM MILITARY TECHNOLOGIES Identify opportunities to invest in development of high-payoff (but high-risk) technologies that could provide significant new military capabilities or much reduce costs of existing capabilities; identify potential threats from new discoveries, novel applications, or military exploitation of civil sector technology. IMPLEMENTING THE CHEMICAL WEAPONS CONVENTION For the newly-signed CWC, analyze implementation requirements with respect to such issues as verification instruments and procedures, protection of confidential information at inspected sites, implications for export control regulations, assistance to countries threatened by chemical attack, destruction of U.S. chemical arsenal, and role of U.S. chemical defense program. 35
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ScheduleE 10.7 STAFFING OF THE DMSION Office of Technology Assessment Energy, Materials, and International Security Division Direct and Indirect Employees NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES DOLLARS ($000) FY92 FY93 FY94 FY92 CLASSIFICATION ACTUAL ESTIMATE ESTIMATE ACTUAL Staff Allocation (oermanent nositions) 36 36 36 -11.1 Full-Time Permanent Full-Time Permanent 36 36 36 2,546 Part-Time Permanent 0 0 0 0 11.3 Other Than Full-Time Permanent Temporary 10 11 11 529 Intermittent/Consultants 8 8 8 0 25.2 Other Services (Contracts for on-site oersonal services) 1/ 8 8 8 154 1/ Includes individuals whose services are obtained under contract performing on-site services (in agency workspace) for six months or more during a twelve month period. 36 FY93 FY94 ESTIMATE ESTIMATE -----2,803 3,024 0 0 464 502 25 26 92 95
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11. DMSION B: HEALTH AND LIFE SCIENCES 1. SCHEDULES Al, Bl, AND Cl FOR THE DMSION Schedule Al CATEGORIES 1. Breakdown by Organization: Health and Life Sciences Division Total 2. Breakdown by Object Class: 11 Personnel Compensation 12 Personnel Benefits 13 Benefits to Former Personnel 21 Travel 22 Transportation of Things 23 Rent, Communications & Utilities 24 Printing and Reproduction 25.1 Consulting Services 25 .2 Other Services 26 Supplies and Materials 31 Equipment 32 Land and Structures 42 Insurance Claims and Indemnities Total Office of Technology Assessment Health and Life Sciences By Organization and By Object Class FY92 FY93 ACTUAL ESTIMATE DOLLARS DOLLARS STAFF ($000) STAFF ($000) 36 4,882 36 4,908 36 4,882 36 4,908 2,678 2,652 547 559 1 IO 85 114 8 10 3 174 202 1,149 1,139 106 188 45 19 86 15 4,882 4,908 37 FY94 ESTIMATE DOLLARS STAFF ($000) 36 5,422 36 5,422 2,862 617 IO 121 10 209 1,364 194 20 15 5,422 NET CHANGE 93/94 DOLLARS STAFF ($000) 0 514 0 514 2IO 58 0 7 0 0 7 225 6 1 0 514
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Schedule Bl MANDATORY PAY AND RELATED COSTS I I DOLLARS CATEGORIES STAFF ($000) 1. Breakdown By Organization: Health and Life Sciences Division 268 Total 268 2. Breakdown By Object Class: 11 Personnel Compensation 210 12 Personnel Benefits 58 13 Benefits to Former Personnel 21 Travel 22 Transportation of Things 23 Rent, Communications & Utilitiei; 24 Printing and Reproduction 25 .1 Consulting Services 25 .2 Other Services 26 Supplies and Materials 31 Equipment 32 Land and Structures 42 Insurance Claims and Indemnities Total 268 Office of Technology Assessment Health and Life Sciences Division Analysis of Change to Budget Base By Organization and by Object Class PROGRAM TYPE CHANGES EQUIPMENT, ALTERATIONS, PRICE LEVEL MAINTENANCE, CHANGES LEGISLATION WORKLOAD REPAIRS, ETC. DOLLARS DOLLARS DOLLARS DOLLARS STAFF ($000) STAFF ($()()()) STAFF ($000) STAFF ($000) 55 191 55 191 7 7 34 191 6 1 55 191 38 TOTAL CHANGES DOLLARS STAFF ($000) 514 514 210 58 7 7 225 (i 1 514
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Schedule Cl Office of Technology Assessment Health and Life Sciences Division Detailed Analysis of Changes Appropriation, 1993 Adjustments to Appropriation Budget Base, 1994 I. Adjustments to Base A. Mandatory Pay and Related Costs 1. Annualization of January 1993 Cost-of-Living Adjustment 2. January 1994 Cost-of-Living Adjustment 3. Merit Increases and Promotions 4. Health Benefit Cost Increases 5. Contribution to Retirements Funds 6. Locality-Based Pay B. Price Level Changes 1. Travel Related Inflation of 6.25% 2. Printing Inflation of 3. 7 % 3. Consultant Services Inflation of 3 % 4. Other Services Inflation of 3% 5. Supplies and Materials Inflation of 3 % C. Program Type Changes 1. Legislation 2. Workload a. Additional Assessments and Studies 3. Equipment, Alterations, Maintenance, Repairs, Etc. II. Net Increase/Decrease Requested Ill. Total Appropriation Request, 1994 39 Calculation of Base Amount Staff ($000) 36 4,908 36 4.908 1994 Request Amount Staff ($000) ... 268 30 51 93 12 12 70 ... 55 7 7 34 6 1 ... ... ... 191 191 ... .. ... 514 36 5,422
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11.2. EXPLANATION OF CHANGES SHOWN ON SCHEDULE Cl FOR DMSION B Office of Technology Assessment Health and Life Sciences Division A. MANDATORY PAY AND RELATED COSTS l.Annualization of January 1993 3.7% Cost-of-Living Adjustment 2.January 1994 2.2 % Cost-of-Living Adjustment 3. Merit increases and promotions averaging 3 % agency-wide 4.Annualization of January 1993 9.5% plus estimated January 1994 9. 5 % health benefit increases 5. Increase in retirement contributions (FERS) 6.January 1994 2.9% locality-based pay adjustment B. PRICE LEVEL CHANGES 1. Travel inflation rate of 6.25 % applied to base 2.Printing and publications inflation rate of 3.7% applied to base 3. Consultant services inflation rate of 3 % applied to base 4. Other services inflation rate of 3 % applied to base 5. Suuolies and materials inflation rate of 3 % auolied to base C. PROGRAM TYPE CHANGES 1. Legislation 2.Workload a. Additional assessments and studies 3.Eauipment, Alterations, Maintenance, Reoairs, Etc. 40 Staff Amount (000) 30 51 93 12 12 70 Staff Amount (000) 7 7 34 6 1 Staff Amount (000) ... 191 ..
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11.3. Role of the Health and Life Sciences Division The Health and Life Sciences Division comprises three programs: Biological Applications; Food and Renewable Resources; and Health. The Biological A1mlications Program assesses state-of-the-art technologies arising from progress in biological science. Its broader responsibility is to help Congress understand complex technologies in biomedical and behavioral sciences. Early warning is very much a part of the Program's charter, and some studies explore potential future applications of biological technologies; for example, biotechnology and the new genetics. Because many of these new technologies have potential impacts that are of great social and political significance, ethical, legal, and regulatory analysis is often a component of the assessments conducted by the Program. The scope of the Food and Renewable Resources Program includes all agriculture-related technologies used to provide society with food, fiber, and chemicals, and technologies that enhance or jeopardize the ability to sustain in perpetuity the renewable resource bases that make such production possible. Agriculture itself is defined in the broad sense, including all crop and livestock production and forestry. Attention also is given to the impact that technology has had and is likely to have on how the agricultural system is organized, who controls it, and where it is heading. Further, the Program covers renewable resources that presently may not be considered or produced as crops, but that support such production and are fundamental to human needs. Relevant international analyses are often carried out. The Health Program's charter is reflected in two primary types of efforts: 1) assessments of specific clinical and general health care technologies, and 2) studies of broader issues of health policy related to or with implications for technology. In addition, it has certain statutory, methodology oversight responsibilities regarding Vietnam veterans health studies, and provides the staff work for the OTA Director's mandated responsibility to select and appoint members of the Prospective Payment Assessment Commission and the Physician Payment Review Commission. 11.4. Accomplishments of the Health and Life Sciences Division In FY 1992, the Health and Life Sciences Division published 9 assessment reports: o Biotechnology in a Global Economy o Volume II -Adolescent Health: Background and the Effectiveness of Selected Prevention and Treatment Services o Forest Service Planning: Accommodating Uses, Producing Outputs, and Sustaining Ecosystems o Evaluation of The Oregon Medicaid Proposal o Home Drug Infusion Therapy Under Medicare o Cystic Fibrosis and DNA Tests: Implications of Carrier Screening o A New Technological Era for American Agriculture o The Biology of Mental Disorders o Special Care Units for People with Alzheimer's and Other Dementias: Consumer Education, Research, Regulatory and Reimbursement Issues The Division also produced 10 background papers: o Screening Mammography in Primary Care Settings: Implications for Cost, Access, and Quality o Medical Monitoring and Screening in the Workplace: Results of a Survey o HIV in the Health Care Workplace 41
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o Review of a Protocol for a Study of Reproductive Health Outcomes Among Women Vietnam Veterans o The Menopause, Hormone Therapy, and Women's Health o Identifying and Controlling Pulmonary Toxicants o CDC's Case Definition of AIDS: Implications of Proposed Revisions o Do Medicaid and Medicare Patients Sue More Often Than Other Patients? o Does Health Insurance Make a Difference? o Difficult-to-Reuse Needles for the Prevention of HIV Infection Among Injecting Drug Users In addition, the Division testified 8 times. Listed below are several examples of direct legislative use of the Division's work: Biological Applications 1. The reports, Genetic Witness: Forensic Uses of DNA Tests, Genetic Monitoring and Screening in the Workplace, Medical Monitoring and Screening in the Workplace--Results of a Survey, and Cystic Fibrosis and DNA Tests: Implications of Carrier Screening, all contributed to report language related to NIH appropriations that suggests establishment of a genetic information and privacy commission. 2. On October 24, 1992, the President signed Public Law 102-493, the Fertility Clinic Success Rate and Certification Act of 1992, which had been introduced by Congressman Ron Wyden as H.R. 4773. The law calls for each clinic to report its success rates to the Department of Health and Human Services in two ways. One is the statistic proposed by the director of the OTA project that resulted in the May 1988 report Infertility: Medical and Social Choices; the other a more optimistic (but less realistic) statistic endorsed by the practitioners of the art. 3. Additional copies of OT A's Neural Grafting report were requested by the Senate subcommittee on Aging of the Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources, for use in action on fetal tissue transplantation. 4. The Report The Biology of Mental Disorders was released at a hearing of the Senate Labor and Human Resources Committee. Following that hearing, the report was cited during the floor debate on the HHS appropriations bill in the Senate. Food and Renewable Resources 1. The Report, Agricultural Research and Technology Transfer Policies for the 1990s, led to the creation of the Agriculture Science and Technology Review Board, an expansion of the Users Advisory Board, and the determination of research priorities in Title XVI of the Food, Agriculture, Conservation and Trade Act of 1990. 2. The 1991 report,Agricultural Commodities as Industrial Raw Materials, was instrumental in changing the thinking of Senate and House Appropriations Committees about the advisability of allocating large-scale funds to commercialization activities of traditional and new crops for industrial use by developing a number of commercialization centers. 3. The OT A report on U.S. Dairy Industry at a Crossroads: Biotechnology and Policy Choices was the basis of hearings conducted by the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry and the House Committee on Agriculture. The report was subsequently used in drafting and amending legislation to change the dairy price support program and supply management programs for the dairy industry. 42
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4. The Report, Forest Service Planning: Accommodating Uses, Producing Outputs, and Sustaining Ecosystems, spurred development of a provision to the Interior Appropriations Act requiring the U.S. Forest Service to have and retain an administrative appeals process. 5. An updated release, Combined Summaries--Technologies to Sustain Tropical Forest Resources and Biological Diversity, was used as briefing material for the Congressional Delegation to the UN Conference on Environment and Development (the "Earth Summit") held June 1992 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. 6. The Program's most recent publication, A New Technological Era For American Agriculture, is expected to influence legislation related to : food safety, plant and animal protection, biotechnology regulations, and amendments to the Federal Insecticide, and Rodenticide Act. 1. Programs to address several of the research, training, and education needs identified in our 1990 report, Confused Minds, Burdened Families: Finding Help for People With Alzheimer's and Other Dementias, have been mandated by P.L. 102-507, including research on the role of physicians in connecting people with dementia to appropriate services, training for information and referral and case management personnel, and educational grants to inform health care providers and families about the availability of services and funding for services for people with dementia. 2. The project director for OT A's Prevention series and other OTA staff (including OT A's Assistant Director, Health and Life Sciences) provided various committees of the House and Senate with briefings, materials, and advice regarding aspects of prevention. Numerous bills have been introduced that mandate OT A doing various things related to prevention (such as developing a process on how the decision process/standards of evidence/etc. for covering additional prevention technologies should be done). OTA also advised committees and individual Members on issues surrounding Medicare (and general) coverage of colorectal cancer, cervical cancer, etc. This advice and briefings grew out of work on our Prevention Series (screening for colorectal cancer, cholesterol, cervical cancer, glaucoma, and also policy and evaluation issues re: prevention). 3. OT A staff provided information, based on our Pharmaceutical R&D study and on specific spreadsheet analyses, to staff of Senators Kassebaum and Metzenbaum, regarding the implications of whether a $200 million or a $100 million limit should be placed on the amount of revenues an orphan drug can receive without losing its market exclusivity. OT A's analyses indicated the benefits of the higher limit. 4. OT A staff provided advice to staff of Congressman Mike Kopetski regarding potential financial and organizational impact of the Oregon Medicaid demonstration waiver on Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHCs) and Federally certified rural health clinics (RHCs). 5. OT A's 3-volume report on Adolescent Health was used by Congress in drafting legislation relating to various aspects of adolescent health. Five bills with the potential to have a substantial impact on adolescent health passed (Preventive Health Amendments of 1992; ADAMHA Reorganization Act, 1992; Indian Health Care Amendments, 1992; Job Training Reform Amendments, 1992; Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Act, 1992). The Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Act of 1992 made substantial amendments to a similarly-named act first passed in 1974, including amendments that would improve coordination among Federal, State, and local agencies and emphasize community-based programs and services, including family counseling and coordination of family services. The project director of the OT A Aolescent Health project provided advice to the staff person for the newly re-established Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Juvenile Justice and Delinquency, on the development of this legislation. 43
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OTA'sAdolescent Health report was cited in hearings related to prevention (the House Select Committee on Children, Youth, and Families (May 1991); healthcare reform (the House Select Committee on Children, Youth, and Families (1992); and comprehensive school-based health services (Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources;( July 1992). The OTA project director met with health staff of Senate Committee on Labor And Human Resources to discuss the revision and reintroduction of Sen. Kennedy's bill on comprehensive school-based health services. OT A's report was cited in a report on Teens and AIDS published by the House Select Committee on Children, Youth, and Families in May 1992. OTA was asked to review the draft of this report prior to publication 11.5 Changes in Prior Plans for FY 1992 for the Health and Life Sciences Division During Fiscal Year 1992, the Health and Life Sciences Division essentially accomplished its goals, with approved modification and additions to meet the changing needs of Congress. These changes reflect the inherent uncertainty of research and the attendant need to be able to make adjustments. (Please see the chart on page 12 for the breakdown of the differences in estimated and actual Division spending for FY 1992) 11.6 FY 1993 and FY 1994 Priorities for the Health and Life Sciences Division A Division's work is determined by the expressed needs of Congressional Committees, so we cannot safely predict an agenda, but an illustrative list of subjects that are representative of the kinds of new assessments that we may be asked to undertake can be prepared. Such an exercise, using a wide variety of information sources, helps sharpen the discussions between OTA staff and Congressional Committees. It also reflects one of the charges Congress assigned to OT A: foresight about emerging technology. Of course each Division can undertake only a few new assessments each year, so this list should be viewed only as representative of potential subjects for the assessments that the Health and Life Sciences Division may be asked to undertake in Fiscal Years 1993 and 1994. Because OT A works hard to be responsive to changing Congressional needs, new work is often significantly different from OTA's prospective list, but it usually does contain some of the identified issues. Biological Applications BIOLOGICAL PRIVACY Our country's decision to map the human genome has opened wider the window of concern about what information about a person's biology deserves privacy. In a related area, the increased knowledge of the biological bases of mental illness will also raise questions about what kind of information about a person's biochemistry deserves privacy and what kind of information should be released to insurance carriers, law enforcement agencies, and other organizations that will argue that increased efficiency and safety will follow from their having that information. This assessment would delineate what information is now held private and which released, derive whatever lessons those decisions provide for dealing with the new privacy questions, and analyze the methods now being used to make privacy decisions related to new biological technologies. The introduction of bills about genetic privacy in the current Congress illuminates current interest in this area. ORGAN TRANSPLANTATION: NEW TECHNOLOGIES, NEW ISSUES Organ transplants are increasingly common surgical procedures; indeed, the limiting factor for some procedures is the availability of donor organs. This assessment would describe the improvements in 44
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transplantation, plot the success rates, analyze the characteristics of the donor and recipient populations, and discuss the possibility of a market in donated organs. It would describe current Federal practices, obtain experts' views about needed changes, and describe the possible outcomes of those changes. PERFORMANCE ENHANCING DRUGS Athletes' use of various drugs to enhance physical performance has come to the public's attention because of dangerous side effects. The use of drugs and chemicals to enhance mental performance is a more recent development, but it too has been featured in national news magazines and newspapers. This assessment would investigate what is known about the desirable and non-desirable effects of performance enhancing drugs and explore the possible consequences of new or additional Federal programs directed at prohibition or controlled use. REPRODUCTIVE TECHNOLOGIES During the last decade or so, the Federal Government has invested little in research directed at enhancing fertility or at contraception. Furthermore, U.S. drug firms have done little research in these fields in the same time. With the new administration, which is expected to look with more favor on these activities, it is expected that questions will arise about the government's role in a renewed research program. Some questions come immediately to mind: What has been accomplished by research carried out in other countries? What are the possible markets? What safeguards are necessary? What benefits can be expected from the research? TECHNOLOGIES FOR ESTIMATING BENEFITS OF OSHA REGULATIONS With the completion of an on-going assessment that looks at the costs of OSHA regulations and their impacts on productivity, OTA expects a request to look at how OSHA estimates the benefits of its proposed regulations. This project would also draw upon the "health risk assessment research project," also on-going, which is examining methods for estimating human health risks. All of these projects examine some of the technologies in place and needed for the assessment of risks and benefits of new and old technologies and chemicals. VIOLENCE: ASSAULT ON THE PUBLIC HEALTH Violence--homicides, accidents, and suicides--is a major cause of death in the U.S. population that is under 50 years of age, and the physical and mental suffering that stems from assaults and accidents fills the hospitals. This assessment would examine violence as a public health problem: What is the extent of the problem? What are its causes? What strategies, especially behavioral ones in the family, school, and community have been used to combat it? How have they worked? What new strategies are promising? What can organizations, including the Congress, do to implement strategies that work? This assessment would probably include a number of background papers; two that come immediately to mind would be: 1) technologies to assess and to intervene, especially by education in child abuse, and 2) investigation of connection between violence and the mentally ill. Food and Renewable Resources IMPACTS OF INCREASED AGRICULTURE TRADE ON THE ENVIRONMENT This study would examine potential impacts on the United States of increased globalization of markets. Using economic and ecological analyses, the study would address probable impacts of crop specialization, agricultural export orientations, pressures on renewable and non-renewable resources, transportation issues, and pest and disease concerns. The focus might include food, fisheries and aqua culture markets, horticulture markets, timber markets, the opening of new trade areas such as the former USSR and South Africa, free trade agreements, harmonization of product and pest risk standards, and GAIT. The study could identify technological and institutional improvements likely to be needed within a 10-year time period to respond to identified problems 45
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TECHNOLOGIES TO USE AND REUSE AGRICULTURAL WATER EFFICIENTLY Availability of water resources, particularly for agriculture, is a major concern in the United States and globally. If climate change projections are accurate, we can expect the importance of water-use efficiency to increase profoundly in the next 15 to 20 years. Competition between agriculture and other uses over water resources also would be likely to increase, further underscoring needs for increased efficiency and multiple-use systems. An OTA study could identify and assess the: 1) range of technologies employed in agriculture water-use management, 2) new and emerging technologies to enhance water-use efficiency in agriculture, 3) renewable resource-based technologies to reclaim contaminated water, 4) potential effects of widespread implementation of improved technologies on water use in the United States, 5) areas where additional research is needed, and 6) provide options for the Congress to promote enhanced water-use efficiency in agriculture. PEST CONTROL IN AMERICA: TO 2000 AND BEYOND Experts predict the nation's arsenal of chemical pesticides will decline significantly during the next decade due to increased reporting requirements under FIFRA. In addition, concerns continue over potential health and environmental effects of chemical pesticides. These factors have stimulated considerable interest in the development of alternative pest control methods. Applications of biological control and "biorational" chemicals (e.g., pheromones and natural toxins) are likely to increase in the near future. Several important questions arise related to changing pest control strategies: Is national investment in R&D adequate to replace traditional control technologies within the period of expected decline? How realistic are expectations that these alternative technologies actually can eventually replace a significant segment of chemical control? Will the industry infrastructure be sufficient to meet anticipated needs? Existing Federal regulations may not adequately cover biological control, specifically the testing and commercial sale of certain macro organisms. Is new Federal legislation needed? Current U.S. markets for biological control are supplied in part by foreign producers; is there a potential Federal role for enhancing international competitiveness in this area? IMPLICATIONS OF ENDANGERED SPECIES PROTECTION FOR MANAGEMENT OF RENEWABLE RESOURCES IN THE UNITED STATES Species deemed to be endangered in the United States currently are required to be protected from further harm by public or private entities. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service or National Marine Fisheries Service are required to make efforts to promote population recovery. Although the intent and procedures of the Endangered Species Act (ESA) are clear, a number of scientific and technological issues make its implementation difficult and controversial. For example, under the ESA "species" are defined to include genetically divergent populations of the same traditionally-defined species. Advances in biotechnology allow ever more refined identification of genetic differences, and genetic engineering can generate multitudinous new hybrids. OT A could examine the implications of such technologies for protection of endangered species, and assess resource management technologies to protect categories of endangered species: 1) small populations of endemic species (e.g., Snail Darter), 2) wider-ranging species (e.g., spotted owl), 3) highly migratory species (e.g., certain birds, whales, and fishes), and 4) intermittent species (i.e., those that appear only during certain ecological conditions, such as plants whose seeds remain dormant in the soil until specific moisture regimes occur). TECHNOLOGIES FOR ECOLOGICAL RESTORATION The number of Federal laws mandating ecological restoration of degraded habitats ( e.g., mining sites, abandoned agricultural fields, and landfills) continues to grow. Yet few criteria exist for methods and endpoints of restoration efforts. Consequently, key aspects of restored systems sometimes are flawed, such as species composition or habitat structure and stability. Under such conditions, restoration efforts can fail to achieve desired goals, for example in providing habitat for endangered species. Where restoration of one site is "traded" 46
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for development and disturbance of another previously undisturbed site, the trade is meaningless if the restoration is inadequately executed. An assessment of ecological restoration could examine questions such as: o Do current restoration efforts achieve the stated goals of related Federal laws? o Could they if existing technologies were adequately implemented? o What areas require R&D? o What is the future growth potential of ecological restoration as an industry, and is there potential Federal role in industry development? o How do we measure the value of environmental services? RESOURCE MANAGEMENT AND PUBLIC EDUCATION IN THE NATIONAL PARKS Recent internal and external reviews of the National Park Service concluded significant needs exist for increased attention to natural resources in the parks. Traditionally, natural areas were left alone to preserve their natural character. Increasingly, however, influences such as tourism, species invasion, and pollution degrade and damage park ecosystems. As some of the last vestiges of native habitat, park natural areas represent unique national resources. Attention to the problems of park natural areas will require application of technologies either new or at a scale unfamiliar to many park personnel ( e.g., ecological restoration and pest control), and education of park users to characteristics and values of natural areas. Needs may exist to develop new technologies or to modify existing technologies from agriculture. In addition, the agency may require significant direction or restructuring by Congress to address these growing problems adequately. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND THE HEALTH CARE SYSTEM Recent executive branch proposals to create a single patient records and billing system for the entire country have once again focused attention on the potential benefits, costs, and feasibility of automated patient record systems. With over fourteen years having passed since OTA's Technical Memorandum on Policy Implications of Medical Information Systems, this may an appropriate time for OTA to address a variety issues related to the use of information technology in health care and policy. In addition to considering changes in the technology and diffusion of automated medical record systems, OT A could address the whether information technology has a role in reducing the administrative costs associated with the U.S. health care system, its potential as a tool in studying medical outcomes and other clinical and policy research topics. This project could also address the feasibility and implications of computer-based, interactive clinical decision aids in the practice and teaching of medicine and technology to provide medical advice to health care consumers through computer networks or over the telephone. Finally, the project could follow up some of the findings of OT A's 1988 project, Quality of Medical Care: lnfonnation for Consumers, which in part focused on the lack of data necessary to develop and disseminate several potential measures of the quality of health services. MANAGED HEALTH CARE: COST-SAVINGS AND HEALTH EFFECTS Managed care has been cited as a potential cost-saving tool in many health care reform proposals, either as the sole mechanism for containing costs or as one of several that would work in concert to prevent further cost escalation by promoting a more rational allocation of resources. State experiments have demonstrated significant one-time cost savings, but not always an ability to control increases in costs over time. And, when managed care operates under a system that provides financial incentives to reduce services ( as in a prepaid, capitated system), the potential for inappropriate restriction of services arises and must be addressed through oversight of quality from an outside entity. OT A's assessment would focus on several questions: What are the different forms of managed care (e.g., prepaid, case-managed fee-for-service) and what level of savings could we realistically expect from each? Second, what level of oversight would be required in order to ensure that quality standards are maintained? Third, what options does Congress have for promoting managed care under health reform (e.g., mandating vs. encouraging) and how would health care providers respond? 47
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AIDS STUDIES Possible projects under OT A's ongoing AIDS-related project authority could include looking at one or more of the following topics: the effectiveness of AIDS education and prevention efforts; the status of and liability issues surrounding AIDS/HIV vaccine development; the possible benefits, costs, and other issues surrounding the possibility of testing the blood supply for HIV-II; and the future of HIV/ AIDS spread among the injecting drug user population and its implications for other populations. HEALTH TECHNOLOGY UNDER GLOBAL HEALTH CARE BUDGETS Several of the prominent health reform proposals likely to be considered by Congress in its next legislative session, including that favored by President-elect Clinton, include some form of cap or global budget to contain costs. This project would consider how the various ways of applying global budgets would affect health technologies and the providers and patients who use them. It would discuss whether particular types of technologies would be advantaged or disadvantaged under a global budgeting system; how such a system would affect health technology research and development activities; and whether these effects would differ depending on the particular characteristics of the different global budget methods proposed. HEALTH CARE AND THE INNER CI1Y This assessment would examine the problems surrounding health care in the inner city. The problems specific to or much more prevalent in urban settings include such things as higher numbers of uninsured and poor people, higher homicide and violent crime rates, teenage pregnancy and other risk factors for higher infant mortality, homelessness, and substance abuse and treatment problems and disease incidence associated with it. It would also draw on and tie together our efforts relative to, e.g., tuberculosis, AIDS, and health insurance. The assessment would develop a set of options for dealing with the particular conditions associated with the delivery of health care in these settings. PRESCRIPTION DRUGS AND HEALTH CARE REFORM The prices of prescription drugs have risen at a faster rate than other medical expenditures (10 percent between 1989 and 1990). Currently, consumers pay the majority (72.4 percent) of prescription drug expenditures out of pocket. For some consumers, the price of some "high-tech" or other prescription drugs may be so high as to prevent their use of the drugs. This study will address questions related to the coverage, costs, and quality of prescription drugs in national health insurance reform. Should some or all prescription drugs be offered as a benefit under national health insurance reform? What restrictions should be imposed on their use? How would their inclusion/exclusion affect patients' access to prescription drugs? How would it affect their health status? What mechanisms should be adopted to help control costs? What effect would coverage of prescription drugs have on innovation and drug R&D? 48
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Schedule E 11.7 STAFFING OF THE DMSION Office of Technology Assessment Health and Life Sciences Division Direct and Indirect Employees NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES DOLLARS ($000) FY92 FY93 FY94 FY92 CLASSIFICATION ACTUAL ESTIMATE ESTIMATE ACTUAL Staff Allocation foermanent oositions) 36 36 36 -11.1 Full-Time Permanent Full-Time Permanent 34 34 34 1,901 Part-Time Permanent 1/ 3 (2) 3 (2) 3 (2) 123 11.3 Other Than Full-Time Permanent Temporary 20 20 20 654 Intermittent/Consultants 3 0 0 0 25.2 Other Services (Contracts for on-site oersonal services) 2/ 2 6 5 287 1/ Number of individuals and full-time equivalent employment in ( ). 2/ Includes individuals whose services are obtained under contract performing on-site services (in agency workspace) for six months or more during a twelve month period. 49 FY93 FY94 ESTIMATE ESTIMATE ---1,960 2,121 128 132 564 609 0 0 40 41
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12. DIVISION C: SCIENCE, INFORMATION, AND NATURAL RESOURCES 1. SCHEDULES Al, Bl, AND Cl FOR THE DIVISION Schedule A1 CATEGORIES 1. Breakdown by Organization: Science, Information and Natural Resources Division Total 2. Breakdown by Object Class: 11 Personnel Compensation 12 Personnel Benefits 13 Benefits to Former Personnel 21 Travel 22 Transportation of Things 23 Rent, Communications & Utilities 24 Printing and Reproduction 25 .1 Consulting Services 25.2 Other Services 26 Supplies and Materials 31 Equipment 32 Land and Structures 42 Insurance Claims and Indemnities Total Office of Technology Assessment Science, Information and Natural Resources By Organization and By Object Class FY92 FY93 ACTUAL ESTIMATE DOLLARS DOLLARS FY94 ESTIMATE DOLLARS STAFF ($000) STAFF ($000) STAFF ($000) 36 4,919 36 4,860 36 5,421 36 4,919 36 4,860 36 5,421 2,916 2,940 3,172 565 577 663 9 36 37 97 95 101 5 9 9 2 4 4 116 113 117 1,058 994 1,223 51 52 54 33 20 21 67 20 20 4,919 4,860 5,421 50 NET CHANGE 93/94 DOLLARS STAFF ($000) 0 561 0 561 232 86 1 6 0 0 4 229 2 1 0 561
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~emde Bl CATEGORIES keakdown By Organization: cience, Information, and Natural Resources Division Total lreakdown By Object Class: l Personnel Compensation ? Personnel Benefits I Benefits to Former Personnel l Travel ? Transportation of Things I Rent, Communications & Utilities i Printing and Reproduction ; .1 Consulting Services ; .2 Other Services > Supplies and Materials l Equipment ? Land and Structures ? Insurance Claims and Indemnities Total Office of Technology Assessment Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division Analysis of Change to Budget Base By Organization and by Object Class PROGRAM TYPE CHANGES EQUIPMENT, MANDATORY PAY ALTERATIONS, AND RELATED PRICE LEVEL MAINTENANCE, COSTS CHANGES LEGISLATION WORKLOAD REPAIRS ETC. DOLLARS DOLLARS DOLLARS DOLLARS DOLLARS STAFF ($000) STAFF ($000) STAFF ($000) STAFF ($000) STAFF ($000) 319 43 199 319 43 199 232 86 1 6 4 30 199 2 1 319 43 199 51 TOTAL CHANGES DOLLARS STAFF ($000) 561 561 232 86 1 6 4 229 2 1 561
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Schedule Cl Office of Technology Assessment Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division Detailed Analysis of Changes Appropriation, 1993 Adjustments to Appropriation Budget Base, 1994 I. Adjustments to Base A. Mandatory Pay and Related Costs 1. Annualization of January 1993 Cost-of-Living Adjustment 2. January 1994 Cost-of-Living Adjustment 3. Merit Increases and Promotions 4. Health Benefit Cost Increases 5. Contribution to Retirements Funds 6. Benefits to Former Employees 7. Locality-Based Pay B. Price Level Changes 1. Travel Related Inflation of 6.25% 2. Printing Inflation of 3.7% 3. Consultant Services Inflation of 3 % 4. Other Services Inflation of 3 % 5. Supplies and Materials Inflation of 3 % C. Program Type Changes 1. Legislation 2. Workload a. Additional Assessments and Studies 3. Equipment, Alterations, Maintenance, Repairs, Etc. II. Net Increase/Decrease Requested III. Total Appropriation Request, 1994 52 Calculation of Base Amount Staff ($000) 36 4,860 36 4.860 1994 Request Amount Staff ($000) ... 319 33 58 105 7 38 1 77 ... 43 6 4 30 2 1 ... ... ... 199 199 ... .. ... 561 36 5,421
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12.2. EXPLANATION OF CHANGES SHOWN ON SCHEDULE Cl FOR DIVISION C Office of Technology Assessment Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division A. MANDATORY PAY AND RELATED COSTS Staff Amount (000) l.Annualization of January 1993 3.7% Cost-of-Living Adjustment 33 2. January 1994 2.2 % Cost-of-Living Adjustment 58 3.Merit increases and promotions averaging 3% agency-wide 105 4.Annualization of January 1993 9.5% plus estimated January 1994 9 .5 % health benefit increases 7 5. Increase in retirement contributions (FERS) 38 6. Increase in unemployment compensation 1 7.Januarv 1994 2.9% locality-based pay adjustment 77 B. PRICE LEVEL CHANGES Staff Amount (000) 1. Travel inflation rate of 6.25 % applied to base 6 2. Printing and publications inflation rate of 3. 7 % applied to base 4 3. Consultant services inflation rate of 3 % applied to base 30 4. Other services inflation rate of 3 % applied to base 2 5. Suoolies and materials inflation rate of 3 % aoolied to base 1 C. PROGRAM TYPE CHANGES Staff Amount (000) 1. Legislation ... 2.Workload a. Additional assessments and studies 199 3.Eauipment, Alterations, Maintenance, Reoairs, Etc. .. 53
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12.3 Role of the Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division The Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division comprises three programs: Telecommunication and Computing Technologies; Oceans and Environment; and Science, Education, and Transportation. The Telecommunication and Computing Technologies Program is concerned with technologies that create, read, store, manipulate, transmit, or display information. Primarily these are electronic technologies exemplified by computers and communications systems. The core responsibilities of the Program require monitoring the research and development of new information technologies and assessing the technological state of the art in these areas as well as trends in basic research and development. The Program also studies telecommunications regulation, information policy, and applications of information technology in the public sector. The Oceans and Environment Program has responsibility for all ocean-related questions, including ocean resources and maritime policy, and for large-scale environmental issues, such as climate modification and water pollution. As a result of changing Congressional interest, the Program has developed capability for analyzing the difficult questions in which the overriding concern lies with the environmental effects of decisions. The work of the Program usually falls under one of five basic categories: Federal services, natural resources, pollution control, marine industry, and large-scale environmental issues. The Science. Education. and Transportation Program is responsible for work on a variety of topics, ranging from the traditional technology assessment issue of transportation to the newer issues of science policy and education. Science policy considers the health of the U.S. scientific enterprise, as well as allocation and decision-methods available to the Congress to support and manage research. Education work concentrates on schools but includes non-school delivery systems as well, and normally focuses on the use of technology to enhance learning. 12.4 Accomplishments of the Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division In FY 1992, the Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division published 5 assessment reports: o New Ways: Tiltrotor Aircraft and Magnetically Levitated Vehicles o Miniaturization Technologies o Testing in American Schools: Asking the Right Questions o Global Standards: Building Blocks for the Future o Finding A Balance: Computer Software, Intellectual Property and the Challenge of Technological Change The Division also published 6 background papers: o The 1992 World Administrative Radio Conference (WARC 1992): Issues for U.S. International Spectrum Policy o The FBI Fingerprint Identification Automation Program: Issues and Options o Dioxin Treatment Technologies o Managing Industrial Solid Wastes from Manufacturing, Mining, Oil and Gas Production, and Utility Coal Combustion o Alaskan Water for California? The Subsea Pipeline Option o Disposal of Chemical Weapons: Alternative Technologies 54
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In addition, the Division testified 9 times. Listed below are several examples of direct legislative use of the Division's work: Telecommunication and Computing Technologies 1. The House Judiciary Committee, Subcommittee on Civil and Constitutional Rights, used the OTA report, The FBI Fingerprint Identification Automation Program: Issues and Options, as a basis for conducting oversight of the FBI's identification automation program. The House and Senate Appropriations Committee staffs used the report as input to FY94 appropriations and oversight decisions for the FBI fingerprint identification automation and revitalization program (including the Identification Division move to West Virginia). 2. The House and Senate used the OT A report, Automated Record Checks of Fireann Purchasers: Issues and Options, in analyzing legislation on firearms purchaser waiting periods and record checks. The crime legislation, which includes the firearms provisions, may be reintroduced in some form in the 103rd Congress. 3. The OTA reports, Infonning the Nation: Electronic Dissemination of Federal Infonnation and Helping America Compete: The Role of Federal Scientific and Technical Infonnation were used in congressional formulation and consideration of S.1044, the "Federal Informati_on Resources Management Act," S.1139, the "Paperwork Reduction Act of 1991," H.R.2772, the "GPO Wide Information Network for Data Online Act" and H.R. 3459, the "Improvement of Information Access Act." All of these bills failed of enactment in the 102nd Congress; some are likely to be reintroduced, perhaps in revised form, in the 103rd Congress. 4. The OTA report Helping America Compete was used in congressional formulation and consideration of the National Technical Information Service-related provisions of the "Technology Preeminence Act," that was enacted by the 102nd Congress. Oceans and Environment l. Complex Cleanup, which analyzed environmental remediation and waste management programs at the Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear weapons complex, led to a provision in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) Conf. Rpt. 102-966 (Sec. 3103) of H.R. 5006 for Fiscal Year 1993 that requires DOE to prepare, with broad outside input, a report to Congress assessing the effectiveness of its citizen advisory groups and of methods of improving public participation in its environmental and waste management activities. OT A's report, Complex Cleanup led to provisions in the Defense Authorization Act for FY92 that provided additional funding for ATSDR's health assessments at DOE sites, and expanded the authority of the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board to include oversight over DOE's environmental remediation and waste management programs. Complex Cleanup was the basis for a provision of the Senate-passed version of the Defense Authorization Act for FY93, S. 3114, Sec. 3119, that would have established at DOE nuclear weapons sites site specific citizen advisory boards modeled on a policy option in the OTA report. Complex Cleanup was quoted in the Senate report in discussing the rationale for the provision. Complex Cleanup was the basis for several House bills. After OTA staff briefed Rep. Richardson on the OTA report, he introduced the "Federal Facilities Community Oversight for Public Health Act of 1992" (H.R. 5121) that would have amended the Solid Waste Disposal Act to establish citizens advisory boards for each DOE nuclear weapons facilities, and to strengthen the role and capability of ATSDR to conduct health assessments at DOE facilities, and to involve the public in such assessments. The bill was referred to the Committee on Energy and Commerce. Briefings of committee staff also served as input to other legislation that would have amended Superfund legislation. 55
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OT A staff provided technical information derived on Complex Cleanup for provisions incorporated into the Federal Facilities Compliance Act, S. 596, and H.R. 2194, enacted this session. 2. Following release of OT A's background paper, Disposal of Chemical Weapons: Alternative Technologies, and briefings of member staffs and committees, legislation was introduced in the Senate and House to create a mechanism to explore and develop alternative technologies and to require the Army to postpone construction of incinerators until alternative approaches were evaluated. The final defense budget legislation puts a hold on the Army's program, and eliminates $105 million for the Alabama incinerator until a review and report to Congress is completed at the end of 1993. Other results included state laws for more stringent emission limits on the chemical weapons incinerators and attention to local citizen group's concern by the Army and its advisors. 3. Many options developed by OT A Changing By Degrees: Steps to Reduce Greenhouse Gases were included in the Energy Bill. Continued support to the House and Senate Committees as they worked to develop a joint Energy Bill. About 15 measures described in the report are incorporated into the Bill. Science. Education. and Transportation 1. The Chairman's Report from the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Task Force on the Health of Research, was released September 1992. OTA staff acted as technical advisor to the Task Force based on research done for the report, Federally Funded Research: Decisions for a Decade. OTA staff was consulted in June 1992 by the Senate Committee on Appropriations about the status and evaluation of NSFs EPSCoR (Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research), which was examined in Federally Funded Research. The Committee was trying to understand the pros and cons for increasing EPSCoR's FY93 appropriation to $24.5 million. 2. OTA produced a memo in April 1992 for the House Committee on the Budget Task Force on Defense, Foreign Policy, and Space, concerning priority-setting and agency portfolio-building. The memo was an input to Committee hearings and other discussions on "big science" projects, especially the SSC, and the need for cross cutting budget decisions. 3. OTA staff provided support for the April 1992 House Subcommittee on Science Investigations and Oversight hearing on Projecting Science and Engineering Requirements for the 1990s: How Certain Are the Numbers? The hearing exposed the misuse by NSF of a model that predicts shortages of scientists and engineers. 4. OTA staff served as an expert witness at a Forum on Telecommunications and Dissemination, convened by the Subcommittee on Select Education of the House Committee on Education and Labor, April 2, 1992. The purpose of the Forum was to give Committee staff outside advice on a telecommunications initiative being proposed by the Department of Education. (The outcome of the meeting was development of additional language in the bill for the reauthorization of Office of Educational Research and Improvement.) 5. OT A's report, Linking for Leaming: A New Course for Education, staff briefings for Senator Kennedy, and testimony were used to draft legislation and S. 3134, the Ready to Learn Television Act. (Affects delivery of information for young children.) 6. OT A's report, New Ways: Tiltrotor Aircraft and Magnetically Levitated Vehicles, was used by House Committee on Energy and Commerce, Rept. 102-297, as background on Federal policy issues for maglev and high-speed rail. 7. OT A was quoted in the Report of the House Committee on Appropriations zeroing out funds for magnetically levitated vehicles. 56
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8. Language from Delivering the Goods influenced the wording of the Water Resources Development Act, particularly with respect to the possibility of utilizing the Corps of Engineers to assist with developing small rural systems. Subsequent intervention by trade groups deleted relevant language. 12.5. Changes in Prior Plans for FY 1992 for the Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division During Fiscal Year 1992, the Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division essentially accomplished its goals, with approved modifications and additions to meet the changing needs of Congress. These changes reflect the inherent uncertainty of research and the attendant need to be able to make adjustments. (Please see the chart on page 12 for the breakdown of the differences in estimated and actual Division spending for FY 1992.) 12.6. FY 1993 and FY 1994 Priorities for the Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division A Division's work is determined by the expressed needs of Congressional Committees, so we cannot safely predict an agenda, but an illustrative list of subjects that are representative of the kinds of new assessments that we may be asked to undertake can be prepared. Such an exercise, using a wide variety of information sources, helps sharpen the discussions between OTA staff and Congressional Committees. It also reflects one of the charges Congress assigned to OTA: foresight about emerging technology. Of course each Division can undertake only a few new assessments each year, so this list should be viewed only as representative of potential subjects for the assessments that the Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division may be asked to undertake in FY 1993 and FY 1994. Because OTA works hard to be responsive to changing Congressional needs, new work is often significantly different from OT A's prospective list, but it usually does contain some of the identified issues. Telecommunication and Computing Technologies NE1WORKED INFORMATION AND INDMDUAL PRIVACY AND SECURITY The Nation is rapidly moving toward a ubiquitous, interconnected telecommunication system in which digital data will predominate. The new network is based on computer technology and high-speed transmission technologies. This lays them vulnerable to abuses of personal and corporate privacy. Lessons have been learned from experience with private local communication networks involving security violations, malicious tampering, and misuse of privileged information. These occurrences are but a harbinger of the potential harm that could befall the public information networks as greater reliance is placed on them for business and confidential communication. Remedies and means of prevention are both technical and legal. Congress will likely soon be called upon to confront the dual problems of security and privacy as the national network changes in response to developing technology. WIRELESS COMMUNICATION SERVICES Over the last five years the demand for wireless personal communication services has exploded. Wireless technologies, which use radio waves rather than copper or fiber optic cable to transmit signals, now allow consumers to use cordless telephones at home, cellular telephones in their cars, and even telephones on commercial airlines. And more wireless applications are on the horizon; satellite systems, for example, are being designed that will allow people to send and receive telephone calls or text/data to and from any point on Earth. However, the radio frequency spectrum that make such services possible is already very crowded, and finding room for new radio technologies and applications will be difficult. The Federal Government, which manages the use of radio waves in the public interest, will increasingly be called on to mediate the fierce 57 -
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competition between new and existing radio services and between the public and private users of radio frequencies. Decisions regarding the future uses of radio frequencies will have profound effects on the leadership and competitiveness of the United States in world markets for radio-based equipment and services. ONLINE DIGITAL LIBRARIES: ACCESSIBILI'IY, USABILI'IY, COPYRIGHT & SECURl'IY The potential for universal online access to digital libraries through computer networks and databases can benefit education, government, and business alike. The technology for enabling the transmission of such information services is developing quickly. Overcoming the institutional and human factors to enable the use of these technologies present more difficult problems. Accessibility to all potential users must be ensured for reasons of fairness and equity. Similarly, the systems must be easy to use by everyone so that effective access as well as physical access is provided. The electronic library will contain copyrighted material for which the author is sometimes entitled to compensation, thus an online library must have some way of charging for use and compensating a copyright holder. Finally, databases must remain secure against tampering, yet be accessible to all. These issues may confront the principles of equity, fairness and Constitutional rights that could demand the attention of the Congress. ADVANCED VISUALIZATION TECHNOLOGY: MULTIMEDIA, VIRTUAL REALl'IY & CYBERSPACE Modern communication and computer technologies can now provide surrogates for all of the human sensory inputs except smell and touch--and there are technologies in development that may provide feedback to simulate touch in the future. Voice, sound, images, and full motion video are being combined in clever ways to expand the capacity of a person to interact with technology, and through that technology with one another. Multimedia communication and interactive systems are still in their infancy. Virtual reality is still experimental, but has captured the imagination of creative people who are dedicated to make it a reality. The application of these technologies promise to change the fundamentals of education, business, government and the way we normally communicate. MISSION-CRITICAL COMPUTER SOF'IWARE FOR THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT A recent investigative report by the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology identified a number of serious deficiencies in the system used by the Federal mission agencies to develop computer software, and detected flaws in the software itself. The Federal agencies spend $30-$50 billion annually on software procurement. A reappraisal of the way in which specifications are written and the manner in which software is procured is needed to ensure quality control, cost effectiveness and flexibility for meeting the agencies' needs. FUTURE DIRECTIONS IN ADV AN CED COMPUTERS Trends in computer architecture have been toward packaging more and faster computing power into smaller packages and increasing its portability. Future applications will emphasize visualization that will create additional demand for computing power. Emerging technologies will continue to increase the speed and capacity of computers as they are refined and miniaturized. How far and how fast this trend will continue may depend on the physical laws governing microelectronics. Technological breakthroughs may be needed to push toward the next generation of advanced computers. With international competition for computers and computer technology increasing, it is important that the U.S. develop a vision for the future and identify those technologies that would allow it to remain competitive. Oceans and Environment FISHERIES' DECLINES AND NON-POINT SOURCE POLLUTION The goals of the Clean Water Act (CWA) were "zero discharge of regulated pollutants" and to achieve "fishablc, swimmable waters" by a decade ago. Although water quality has improved in many places, there has also been a serious decade-long decline in the health of many fisheries (shell fisheries--scallops, clams, oysters; rockfish, salmon, striped bass, flounder). The declines may be due to nonpoint source pollution, overfishing, diatom 58
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blooms, anoxia events, disease, habitat loss, bad fisheries models, or other factors. EPA has identified 18,000 specific waterbodies that will not attain water quality standards even if all point sources are controlled to the required degree. Currently federal law encourages nonpoint source controls but they are voluntary and vary quite a bit from region to region. With the CW A reauthorization, Congress will struggle with tightening up on nonpoint sources of pollution, consider pollutant trading schemes, and the reasonableness of the CW A's alleged goals. OTA can help assess the scientific relevance of a "zero discharge goal" and the relation of that goal to the health of fisheries. This assessment will help with the difficult issue of fisheries management as well as the practical needs of the Clean Water Act debates. EFFECTIVENESS OF CLEANUP OF CONTAMINATED SITES As expenditures for cleanup of contaminated federal facilities and other sites continue to increase, the issue of cleanup effectiveness (or "how clean is clean?") is being raised more frequently. This assessment would review the methodologies for setting cleanup levels that are presently available to federal and state regulatory agencies under applicable laws and regulations; evaluate the results of applying these methodologies; and identify the gaps in cleanup standards. The study would also evaluate the availability of proven and innovative technologies to meet existing standards, and the relationship of cleanup levels to present and future land uses. DEALING WITH NATURAL DISASTERS Recent natural disasters in the U.S., occuring close together and having unusually severe results, together with widely-publicized problems in responding to these disasters, have raised questions about the effectiveness of present measures to deal with such occurrences. This assessment would identify and evaluate federal government policies that directly or indirectly impinge on predicting, preventing, and mitigating some of the effects of natural disasters. The study would also assess some possible technical and institutional measures at the federal level that could improve the present situation, and evaluate the potential effects of such measures on the actions of state and local governments and the private sector. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND THE ECONOMY What effect do our current environmental protection laws and regulations have on the economy? Do they create or destroy jobs, make industry more or less efficient, help or hurt economic growth? How does a cleaner environment affect the economy? This assessment will attempt to make sense of the often conflicting claims about the effects of environmental protection efforts on the economy. KEY ISSUES IN ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH An evaluation of the scientific understanding of environmental health problems, and the technical solutions and institutional structure available to solve them. Will consider the effectiveness of Federal policies to reduce health risks associated with environmental contamination. DRINKING WATER QUALI1Y IN THE U.S. A number of drinking water systems across the U.S. do not meet the standards established under the Safe Drinking Water Act for the protection of human health. Increasingly, people are purchasing "end use" treatment devices as a safeguard against this potential threat. This assessment would examine the potential risks to human health posed by various water systems and measures, including end use devices, that can be taken to reduce these risks. 59
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Science, Education, and Transportation SCHOOL TO WORK TRANSITION How can young people be better prepared for, and linked to, the workplace? How can schools work with the private sector to identify and teach valuable skills and techniques? How can improved technical educations for all children strengthen the work force? TEACHERS AND TECHNOLOGY Teachers remain the critical link between children and knowledge. Technology can augment teaching via both content and methods, but teachers must be much better prepared for using technology and supported in doing so. Technology itself is racing ahead in capability, but teachers remain behind. How can pre-service and in service training be brought into the information age? TECHNOLOGY AND RESTRUCTURING American public schools are on a course toward extensive restructuring, shifts of site-based management, teacher-as-coach rather than teacher-as-wise-person. Technology can provide resources for this change for the institutions, the funding agencies, the teachers, and the learners. This study would explore how to use technology to !)increase problem solving and critical thinking education; 2) help teachers manage learning efficiently and effectively; 3) connect classrooms with the world and with resources; and 4) meet learner needs more individually and effectively. INTERMODAL SYSTEMS The patchwork nature of U.S. transportation policy, plus shifting funding for various modes, has created a national system that is not a system. While new legislation (ISTEA) urges States and localities to move toward better connections and user-friendly systems, there is little experience, data, or history of cooperation to support this desired goal. Truly integrated transportation, that is also in harmony with environmental needs, requires new thinking and new policy. SURFACE TRANSPORTATION R&D Construction/transportation research is traditionally underfunded in the United States, and undervalued as a contributor to competitiveness. Decisions need to be made to guide investment and research, maintain U.S. involvement, and produce improved products for public and private consumption. STRUCTURAL ARRANGEMENTS FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICYMAKING Changes in the basic assumptions and attitudes around Federal support for basic research are leading to concern, tension, and confusion between the Congress, Federal agencies, and the research community. Many questions about structure and function can be expected in the 103rd Congress. Suggestions for reconfiguration, cross-cutting budget approaches, new relationships in the research-development-product chain, and related questions are likely. The goal is new and better planning for and implementation of research for a revitalized economy, academic and government research sector. 60
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Schedule E 12.7 STAFFING OF THE DMSION Office of Technology Assessment Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division Direct and Indirect Employees NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES DOLLARS ($000) FY92 FY93 FY94 FY92 CLASSIFICATION ACTUAL ESTIMATE ESTIMATE ACTUAL Staff Allocation (oermanent uositions) 36 36 36 -11.1 Full-Time Permanent Full-Time Permanent 34 34 34 2,117 Part-Time Permanent 1/ 3 (1.5) 3 (1.5) 3 (1.5) 91 11.3 Other Than Full-Time Permanent Temporary 18 18 18 704 Intermittent/Consultants 1 1 1 4 25.2 Other Services (Contracts for on-site oersonal services) 2/ 1 2 2 22 1/ Number of individuals and full-time equivalent employment in ( ). 2/ Includes individuals whose services are obtained under contract performing on-site services (in agency workspace) for six months or more during a twelve month period. 61 FY93 FY94 ESTIMATE ESTIMATE --2,226 2,406 94 97 620 663 0 0 71 73
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13. DMSION G: GENERAL AND ADMINISTRATION 1. SCHEDULES Al, Bl, AND Cl FOR THE DMSION Schedule A1 CATEGORIES 1. Breakdown by Organization: General and Administration Division Total 2. Breakdown by Object Class: 11 Personnel Compensation 12 Personnel Benefits 13 Benefits to Former Personnel 21 Travel 22 Transportation of Things 23 Rent, Communications & Utilities 24 Printing and Reproduction 25 .1 Consulting Services 25 .2 Other Services 26 Supplies and Materials 31 Equipment 32 Land and Structures 42 Insurance Claims and Indemnities Total Office of Technology Assessment General and Administration By Organization and By Object Class FY92 FY93 ACTUAL ESTIMATE DOLLARS POLLARS STAFF ($000) STAFF ($000) 35 6,262 35 6,301 35 6,262 35 6,301 1,960 2,560 434 533 6 5 50 46 92 81 2,127 2,244 74 33 56 22 1,070 484 182 169 211 124 6,262 6,301 FY94 ESTIMATE POLLARS STAFF ($000) 35 6,661 35 6,661 2,762 595 5 49 81 2,306 34 23 506 174 126 6,661 NET CHANGE 93/94 DOLLARS STAFF ($000) 0 360 0 360 202 62 0 3 0 62 1 1 22 5 2 360
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~edule Bl MANDATORY PAY AND RELATED COSTS DOLLARS CATEGORIES STAFF ($000) 3reakdown By Organization: ieneral and Administration Division 264 Total 264 3reakdown By Object Class: 1 Personnel Compensation 202 2 Personnel Benefits 62 3 Benefits to Former Personnel 1 Travel 2 Transportation of Things 3 Rent, Communications & Utilities 4 Printing and Reproduction 5 .1 Consulting Services 5 .2 Other Services 6 Supplies and Materials 1 Equipment 2 Land and Structures 2 Insurance Claims and Indemnities Total 264 Office of Technology Assessment General and Administration Analysis of Change to Budget Base By Organization and by Object Class PROGRAM TYPE CHANGES EQUIPMENT, ALTERATIONS, PRICE LEVEL MAINTENANCE, CHANGES LEGISLATION WORKLOAD REPAIRS ETC. DOLLARS DOLLARS DOLLARS DOLLARS STAFF ($000) STAFF ,snom STAFF ($000) STAFF ($000) 96 96 3 62 1 1 22 5 2 96 63 .. TOTAL CHANGES DOLLARS STAFF ($000) 360 360 202 62 3 62 1 1 22 5 2 360
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Schedule Cl Office of Technology Assessment General and Administration Detailed Analysis of Changes Appropriation, 1993 Adjustments to Appropriation Budget Base, 1994 I. Adjustments to Base A. Mandatory Pay and Related Costs 1. Annualization of January 1993 Cost-of-Living Adjustment 2. January 1994 Cost-of-Living Adjustment 3. Merit Increases and Promotions 4. Health Benefit Cost Increases 5. Contribution to Retirements Funds 6. Locality-Based Pay B. Price Level Changes 1. Travel Related Inflation of 6.25% 2. Building Lease Increases 3. Telephone Services Inflation of 5% 4. Miscellaneous Communications Inflation of 3 % 5. Printing Inflation of 3. 7 % 6. Library of Congress Services Inflation of 8 .2 % 7. Consultant Services Inflation of 3 % 8. Other Services Inflation of 3% 9. Supplies and Materials Inflation of 3 % 10. Equipment Inflation of 3 % C. Program Type Changes 1. Legislation 2. Workload 3. Equipment, Alterations, Maintenance, Repairs, Etc. II. Net Increase/Decrease Requested Ill. Total Appropriation Request, 1994 6'4 Calculation of Base Amount Staff ($000) 35 6,301 35 6 301 1994 Request Amount Staff ($000) ... 264 29 49 91 8 20 67 ... 96 3 52 6 4 1 7 1 15 5 2 ... .. ... ... .. .. ... 360 35 6,661
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13.2. EXPLANATION OF CHANGES SHOWN ON SCHEDULE Cl FOR DIVISION G Office of Technology Assessment General and Administration A. MANDATORY PAY AND RELATED COSTS l.Annualization of January 1993 3.7% Cost-of-Living Adjustment 2.January 1994 2.2% Cost-of-Living Adjustment 3.Merit increases and promotions averaging 3% agency-wide 4.Annualization of January 1993 9.5% plus estimated January 1994 9. 5 % health benefit increases 5. Increase in retirement contributions (FERS) 6.Januarv 1994 2.9% locality-based pay adiustment B. PRICE LEVEL CHANGES 1. Travel inflation rate of 6.25 % applied to base 2. Building lease escalation based on 30 % of change in CPI-W for space, plus an estimated 3. 7 % increase in operating costs and property taxes 3. Telephone services inflation rate of 5 % applied to base 4. Miscellaneous communications inflation rate 3 % applied to base 5. Printing and publications inflation rate of 3. 7 % applied to base 6. Interagency agreement with the Library of Congress for financial services increase of 8.2 % for COLA's, locality-based pay adjustment and within-grade increases 7. Consultant services inflation rate of 3 % applied to base 8. Other services inflation rate of 3 % applied to base 9. Supplies and materials inflation rate of 3 % applied to base 10.Eauipment inflation rate of 3% aJ)l)lied non ADP eauipment base C. PROGRAM TYPE CHANGES 1. Legislation 2.Workload 3. Equipment, Alterations, Maintenance, Repairs, Etc. 65 Staff Amount (000) 29 49 91 8 20 67 Staff Amount (000) 3 52 6 4 1 7 1 15 5 2 Staff Amount (000) ... ... ..
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13.3. Role of the General and Administration Division The General and Administration Division is divided into two main sections: the Office of the Director and the Operations Division. Included in the Office of the Director is OTA's Congressional and Public Affairs Office, which handles much of OT A's congressional and press liaison work, relations with the Technology Assessment Board, and relations with the Technology Assessment Advisory Council. The Operations Division is divided into 4 main sections: Budget and Finance The Budget and Finance office handles all of OT A's budget and financial affairs. The office is the focal point for tracking and reporting expenditures under the annual appropriations of the agency. It prepares financial data such as that required for the Justification of Estimates and the President's annual budget and works with Appropriations Committee staff of the House and Senate. Contracts and Building Services The Contracts Office negotiates all of OT A's research contracts and arranges for travel and compensation of OT A's advisory panelists and workshop participants. The office also administers travel for OT A staff and oversees procurements of other services and equipment. The Building Services unit ensures the habitability of OT A's leased space and provides office and courier services to the agency. Information Management and Publishing Services includes the following offices: The Telecommunications and Information Systems Office provides comprehensive computer, telecommunications, and information management support to OTA staff. This includes support for basic office automation, including user assistance, hardware installation and maintenance, software, telecommunications, and database management. A wide variety of training courses are available. The Information Center combines traditional library services with the latest information retrieval technology to fulfill the reference and information needs of OTA staff. The Information Center offers a centralized book and periodical collection, online literature search services, CD-ROM databases, and customized current awareness services in support of OTA research. The Publishing Office coordinates the publishing of OTA reports and background papers from manuscript through camera-ready copy. Editorial support, graphics production, and typesetting and design are handled in a state-of-the-art production environment. The Publishing Office also acts as the liaison for OT A with the Government Printing Office which prints OTA publications. The Information Marketing Office supports the dissemination of OTA information and products. Descriptive flyers, brochures, and pamphlets are developed by this office along with the publications catalog and the annual report. The Information Marketing Office also maintains the Publications Distribution Office for public distribution of OT A publications and for maintenance of the OTA publication inventory. Personnel Services The Personnel Office recruits personnel, processes incoming and outgoing OTA employees, maintains benefits and leave records, and handles employee relations. The office also administers the Morris Udall Congressional Fellowship Program. 66
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ScheduleE 13.4 STAFFING OF THE DMSION Office of Technology Assessment General and Administration Direct and Indirect Employees NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES DOLLARS ($000) FY92 FY93 FY94 FY92 FY93 CLASSIFICATION ACTUAL ESTIMATE ESTIMATE ACTUAL ESTIMATE Staff Allocation (nermanent nositions) 35 35 35 --11.1 Full-Time Permanent Full-Time Permanent 35 35 35 1,766 1,772 Part-Time Permanent 1/ 1 (0.5) 1 (0.5) 1 (0.5) 40 41 11.3 Other Than Full-Time Permanent Temporary 2/ 2 18 18 147 736 Intermittent/Consultants (TAAC) 10 10 10 7 11 25.2 Other Services (Contracts for on-site nersonal services) 3/ 16 0 0 669 0 1/ Number of individuals and full-time equivalent employment in ( ). 2/ OTA's support services contract was terminated on 9/30/92 and replaced by 16 temporary employees. 3/ Includes individuals whose services are obtained under contract performing on-site services (in agency workspace) for six months or more during a twelve month period. 67 FY94 ESTIMATE -1,914 42 795 11 0
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Schedule G ITEM FY1985 11.1 FULL-TIME PERM. POSITTONS 5,997 11.3 OTHER THAN FULL-TIME PERM. 2 005 TOTAL PERSONNEL COMP. 8,002 12.0 PERSONNEL BENEFITS 843 13.0 BENEFITS FOR FORMER PERS. 7 21.0 TRAVEL AND TRAN. OF PERSONS 295 22.0 TRANS. OF THINGS 64 23.0 COMMUN UTILITIES & RENT 1,248 24.0 PRINTING AND REPRODUCTION 294 25.1 CONSULTING SERVICES 3,571 25.2 OTHER SERVICES 872 26.0 SUPPLIES AND MATERIALS 189 31.0 EQUIPMENT 288 32.0 LAND & STRUCTURES 0 41.0 GRANTS, SUBSIDIES & CONTRIB. 0 42.0 INSURANCE CLAIMS & INDEM. 0 TOTAL OBLIGATIONS 15 673 NO.OFREPORTSPUBLIBHED 17 NO. OF OTHER DOC'S PUBLISHED 47 TESTIMONY DELIVERED 24 NO. FULL-TIME PERM. POSITIONS 143 OPERATING FULL-TIME PERMANENT 35 SUPPORT FULL-TIME PERMANENTS 108 FULL-TIME PERM. S PER PRODUCT 1.2 14. Ten Year Quantitative Data (in thousands of dollars) FY1986 FY1987 FY1988 FY1989 5,952 6,477 6,860 7,196 1 700 1 538 1 747 1 687 7,652 8,015 8,607 8,883 786 1,322 1,636 1,653 24 7 9 28 240 288 299 312 74 76 78 78 1,215 1 476 1,684 1,943 608 508 686 536 2,368 3,281 2 276 2 496 791 1,027 1 012 1 012 232 219 252 302 607 304 312 648 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 597 16 523 16 851 17 891 18 17 31 12 65 40 29 38 28 29 55 36 136 143 143 143 34 33 35 35 102 110 108 108 0.9 1.3 0.9 1.3 68 FY1990 FY1991 FY1992 ifY1993E ifY1994E 7,320 7,966 8,584 9,024 9,736 1 943 1 870 2 045 2 420 2 612 9,263 9,836 10,629 11,444 12,348 1,728 1,960 2,185 2,370 2,659 5 13 16 51 52 310 240 316 368 391 107 121 112 110 110 2,016 2,136 2,138 2,252 2,314 578 675 531 541 560 2,195 2,491 3,065 2,701 3,262 1,208 1,356 1,307 761 792 314 315 305 245 253 601 363 417 182 184 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 325 19.506 21.021 21 025 22 925 17 30 31 29 23 42 21 21 26 20 49 47 31 50 50 143 143 143 143 143 35 35 35 35 35 108 108 108 108 108 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.2
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15. Object Class Definitions 11 Personnel Compensation Obligations for regular compensation of employees in full-time permanent positions or employees in positions not included in full-time permanent positions, such as full-time and part-time temporary employees, part-time permanent employees, or public members of the OTA Advisory Council. Obligations for compensation for all appointed consultants who are paid at a daily rate when actually employed are also included in this object class. 12 Personnel Benefits Obligations for employers' share of employee retirement, life insurance, health insurance, Medicare, and Social Security. 13 Benefits to Former Personnel Obligations for unemployment compensation of former employees. 21 Travel Obligations for all travel expenses for OTA employees or others, whether paid to traveler or commercial transportation charges (e.g., rental car). Included in this object class are obligations for transportation expenses incident to permanent change of station and per diem. 22 Transportation of Things Obligations for transportation of things and for the care of such things while in the process of being transported, including General Services Administration for leasing and maintenance of the OT A delivery vehicles, U.S. Postal Service for penalty (franked) mail, Express Mail, services provided by USPS, private freight and mail services (this does not include local delivery service), and transport of household furnishings associated with a permanent change of station. 23 Rent, Communication, Utilities Obligations for space rental; rental of reproduction equipment; telegraph and teletype service; mail delivered by a messenger service (local delivery); C&P or other telephone companies for regular, WATS, telecopier, and data phone. 24 Printing and Reproduction Obligations to the Government Printing Office (GPO) for reproduction of printing OTA reports for Congress; GPO or other vendors for printing of OTA letterhead, memo or note paper, and franked envelopes; graphics work done outside GPO for OTA reports and presentations; GPO or other vendors for forms used by OTA; and GPO or a printing firm for OTA sharing the cost of printing a publication with another agency. 25.1 Consulting Services Obligations for services acquired by contract from non-governmental sources that provide management and professional support services; studies, analyses, and evaluations. Includes on-site (in-house) contractors, panelists and obligations for services associated with an OTA assessment or study. Excludes personnel appointments and advisory committees, which are classified under object class 11. 69
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25.2 Other Services Obligations for building maintenance and repairs when done by contract, temporary secretarial services, training and meeting registration, court reporting, equipment services not covered under rental agreement, license fees for computer software, services of editors and proofreaders, maintenance agreements for office equipment, computerized information retrieval, development of software, and advertising. 26 Supplies and Materials Obligations for supplies and materials that are ordinarily consumed or expended within one year after they are purchased or that are used to form a minor part of equipment or fixed property; subscriptions for journals, magazines, newspapers, etc., pamphlets and leaflets or minor publications having an expected useful life of less than one year and that are not for the permanent collection; and ADP supplies (e.g. computer disks, tapes, or off-the-shelf software. 27 Equipment Obligations for personal property or equipment that is of a durable nature which normally may be expected to have a period of service of a year or more after purchase without material impairment of its physical condition, such as: (1) major purchased equipment and furnishings; (2) minor movable equipment for office use; (3) computer equipment; (4) audiovisual equipment; (5) books, bound reports, directories, etc., for OT A's (Information Services) permanent collection; and (6) charges for the initial installation of equipment when performed by the vendor. This object class consists of both non-capitalized equipment (purchase orders under $5,000) and capitalized equipment (unit cost of $5,000 or above). 70
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16.A. Publications Printed and Delivered During Fiscal Year 1992 Formal Assessment Reports NEW WAYS: TILTROTOR AIRCRAFT AND MAGNETICALLY LEVITATED VEHICLES October 1991 Demand for high-speed intercity transportation continues to climb in the United States. New technologies, tiltrotor aircraft and magnetically levitated (maglev) trains could help relieve congestion, but would require billions of dollars and substantial Federal support if they are to enter the marketplace. To support congressional decisiomnakers on these technologies, this study: 1) evaluated the state of technology development and additional work necessary to make tiltrotor or maglev economically attractive; 2) examined the potential demand for these technologies; 3) compared maglev and tiltrotor to other similar, but advanced technologies, such as high-speed rail and next generation helicopters; and 4) identified the Federal, State, and private sector roles for supporting these technologies. Requested by: Senate Committee on Finance Hon. John Heinz (deceased) IMPROVING AUTOMOBILE FUEL ECONOMY House of Representatives Committee on Appropriations Hon. Jamie Whitten, Chainnan Subcommittee on Transportation Appropriations Hon. William Lehman, Chainnan, Hon. Lawrence Coughlin, Ranking Minority Member October 1991 The debate over U.S. energy policy, and specifically raising the efficiency of the U.S. automobile fleet by increasing new car fuel economy standards, intersects three key issues: 1) oil imports and national security; 2) global warming; and 3) competitiveness. This report examines the fuel economy potential of the U.S. fleet in an effort to assist Congress in establishing new fuel economy standards. Requested by: Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Hon. J. Bennett Johnston, Chainnan U.S. OIL IMPORT VULNERABILITY: THE TECHNICAL REPLACEMENT CAPABILITY October 1991 Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in August 1990 triggered a request for OT A to update the conclusions of the 1984 report, U.S. Vulnerability to a11 Oil Import Curtailment: The Oil Replacement Capability. The Subcommittee on Energy And Power of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce subsequently joined in the request. This report examines the changes that have taken place in world oil markets and the U.S. economy since 1984 and provides revised estimates of the technical oil replacement potential that might be attained in the event of a severe and long lasting cutoff of imported oil. The analysis focuses on technologies that are commercially available today or will be within the next 5 years and that are among the most cost effective methods for replacing oil use in a applicable sectors. It also considers the economic impacts of adopting an aggressive oil replacement strategy in a severe oil emergency. The report presents a variety of policy options that could help accelerate the adoption of oil replacement technologies in preparation for, or in response to, a severe supply disruption, or as part of a long-term national policy to reduce import vulnerability. 71
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Requested by: Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Hon. J. Bennett Johnston, Chainnan BIOTECHNOLOGY IN A GLOBAL ECONOMY House of Representatives Committee on Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Energy and Power Hon. Philip Sharp, Chainnan October 1991 The United States government indirectly supports industrial applications of biotechnology by funding basic research in a wide range of relevant disciplines. This assessment of the U.S. competitive position in biotechnology takes into account the extent to which specific countries are posing a significant challenge in the application of biotechnology to particular industrial sectors. Traditional indicators of competitive status ( e.g., imports, exports, trade balances, employment) are not yet useful predictors of the U.S. position in biotechnology due to the immaturity of the industry and the unavailability of data. This assessment develops unique criteria upon which a competitive assessment could be made. The assessment 1) identified current U.S. capabilities in various applications of biotechnology and compares these capabilities to efforts underway internationally; 2) addressed trade, export, and international intellectual property issues relevant to the safe and timely commercialization of products derived from biotechnology; and 3) assessed the feasibility of cooperative ventures between U.S. firms (such as those formed in Japan and Western Europe). Requested by: Senate Committee on the Budget Hon. Lawton Chiles, Chainnan Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Hon. Patrick Leahy, Chainnan Hon. Richard Lugar, Ranking Minority Member Endorser Committee on Governmental Affairs Hon. John Glenn, Chainnan House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Hon. Robert Roe, Chainnan COMPETING ECONOMIES: AMERICA, EUROPE, AND THE PACIFIC RIM November 1991 The United States must continue efforts to develop and diffuse manufacturing technology in order to reduce its trade deficit and return to a path of increasing the standard of living of its citizens. This report examines how the economic environment of the United States can be made more conducive to improving manufacturing performance. It considers how Federal institutions, in cooperation with industry, can develop competitiveness strategies for high-tech, fast growing industries; and how trade, financial and technology policies could be combined into a strategic competitiveness policy. The assessment report cautions that, unless the United States develops a strategic approach to building competitiveness, U.S. manufacturers probably will continue to lose world market share and as a result, most U.S. workers and citizens are likely to continue to sec their standards of living erode. Requested by: Senate Committee on Finance Hon. Lloyd Bentsen, Chainnan Hon. John Heinz ( deceased) Hon. Charles E. Grassley Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs House of Representatives Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs 72
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MINIATURIZING TECHNOLOGIES: CURRENT STATUS, FUTURE TRENDS, IMPLICATIONS November 1991 New technologies are changing the nature of electronic and mechanical devices by making them smaller than ever imagined. Smaller size means lower power, reduced heat dissipation and, most importantly, higher speed. These advantages make miniaturization technology critical to the competitiveness of electronics, computers and telecommunications industries. The technologies are also essential for development of new defense and space applications, such as advanced sensors and smart weapons. This project provides an overview of current and future R&D in miniaturization technologies. It 1) profiles domestic R&D in miniaturization including achievements to date, current activities, trends, and obstacles; 2) compiles available information about foreign R&D activities in miniaturization; 3) discusses the potential for future applications and provides insights into possible rates for development and utilization; and 4) identifies policy considerations for congressional cognizance or action. Requested by: House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space and Technology Hon. Robert E. Roe, then Chaimian Hon. Robert S. Walker, Ranking Minority Member Hon. George E. Brown, Jr., now Chaimian ADOLESCENT HEALTH November 1991 The report responds to the request of numerous Members of Congress to review the physical, emotional, and behavioral health status of contemporary American adolescents, including adolescents in groups who might be more likely to be in special need of health-related interventions; adolescents living in poverty, adolescents from racial and ethnic minority groups, Native American adolescents, and adolescents in rural areas. OT A 1) identified risk and protective factors for adolescent health problems and integrated national data in order to understand the clustering of specific adolescent health problems, 2) evaluated options in the organization of health services and technologies available to adolescents (including accessibility and financing), 3) assessed options in the conduct of national health surveys to improve collection of adolescent health statistics, and 4) identified gaps in research in the health and behavior of adolescents. Requested by: Senate Select Committee on Indian Affairs Hon. Daniel K. Inouye, Chaimian Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation Subcommittee on Aviation Hon. Nancy L. Kassenbaum, Ranking Minority Member Senate Hon. Orrin Hatch Hon. Ted Stevens Hon. Charles Grassley Hon. Claiborne Pell Hon. Edward M. Kennedy Hon. Bob Dole Hon. Robert C. Byrd Hon. Lowell P. Weicker, Jr. Hon. Quentin N. Burdick Endorsers 73 House of Representatives Hon. Morris Udall Hon. William H. Gray, III Hon. James M. Jeffords, then Hon. Henry A. Waxman Hon. Daniel K. Akaka Hon. Patricia F. Saiki Hon. Don Young
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Hon. John C. Stennis Hon. Mark 0. Hatfield Hon. Alan K. Simpson Hon. Alan Cranston Hon. Lawton Chiles Hon. Bob Packwood Hon. Spark Matsunaga Hon. Daniel J. Evans Hon. Arlen Specter Hon. Frank H. Murkowski Hon. Christopher J. Dodd Hon. Dale Bumpers Hon. Lloyd Bentsen Hon. Daniel P. Moynihan Hon. John D. Rockefeller, IV Hon. Edwaard R. Madigan Hon. Thad Cochran Hon. Barbara Mikulski PERFORMANCESTANDARDSFORTHEFOODSTAMPEMPLOYMENT AND TRAINING PROGRAM February 1992 The Food Stamp Employment and Training Program (FSET) was designed to reduce food stamp outlays by increasing the employment and earnings of able-bodied food stamp recipients. Congress directed the Food and Nutrition Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (FNS) to develop performance standards for FSET. Congress also directed OTA to develop model performance standards and to compare the model standards to the standards developed by FNS. This report also analyzes successful employment and training programs. Requested by: Mandated by P.L. 100-435. AFTER THE COLD WAR: LMNG WITH LOWER DEFENSE SPENDING February 1992 The great events of 1992 ended the Cold War, banished the threat of global nuclear conflict, and freed us to redefine national security. While future U.S. defense needs are still unclear, they will surely require less money and fewer people. This first report from OT A's assessment of Technology and Defense Conversion examined the effects of the defense build-down on the civilian side of the economy. This report focuses on ways to handle the dislocation of workers and communities that is, to some degree, inevitable in the defense cutback. It opens a discussion of how defense technologies might be converted to commercial applications. Requested by: Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Hon. Claiborne Pell, Chainnan Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Edward M. Kennedy, Chaimian Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Ernest F. Hollings Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin Hatch, Ranking Minority Member 74 House of Representatives Committee on Government Operations Hon. John Conyers, Jr., Cha inn an Subcommittee on Commerce, Consumer and Monetary Affairs Hon. Doug Barnard, Jr., Chainnan
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Committee on Armed Services Subcommittee on Defense, Industry and Technology Hon. Jeff Bingaman, Chainnan TESTING IN AMERICAN SCHOOLS: ASKING THE RIGHT QUESTIONS February 1992 Concern for the Nation's ability to create and adapt to new technology and maintain high living standards has stimulated myriad State, local, and Federal efforts to improve educational opportunities and outcomes. As Congress prepares to consider a wide range of education policy initiatives, it will encounter strong pressure to widen traditional definitions of educational performance and to consider new metrics for assessing individual learning potential, achievement, and school quality. This report is a comprehensive assessment of alternative measurement technologies. A focal point of the study was the appropriateness of various technologies for diagnosing individual learning needs, measuring skills acquired in school and their relation to future education or employment, and developing performance indicators for accountability of schools and school systems. Comparisons with other countries' testing strategies is also included. Requested by: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Edward M. Kennedy, Chainnan House of Representatives Committee on Education and Labor Hon. Augustus Hawkins, then Chainnan TECHNOLOGY AGAINST TERRORISM: STRUCTURING SECURITY March 1992 The assessment examines the state of research and development applicable to countering terrorism. It identifies promising lines of work for further exploitation, and assesses the effectiveness of translating successful technology into actual protection of U.S. citizens, officials, and property. In addition to obvious areas of interest, such as technologies related to explosives detection, access control, and incident response, OT A also considered possible future terrorist threats and potential means of dealing with them. Requested by: Senate Committee on Government Affairs Hon. John Glenn, Chainnan Hon. William V. Roth, Ranking Minority Member Committee on Foreign Relations Hon. John F. Kerry, Chainnan Hon. Mitch McConnell, Ranking Minority Member Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation Hon. Ernest Hollings, Chainnan Hon. John C. Danforth, Ranking Minority Member Subcommittee on Aviation Hon. Wendell H. Ford, Chainnan Hon. John McCain, Ranking Minority Member GLOBAL STANDARDS: BUILDING BLOCKS FOR THE FUTURE March 1992 Standards govern the design, operation, manufacture, and use of nearly everything that mankind produces. With the evolution of global markets, standards are even more important to facilitate international trade. Unfortunately, they may also be used as trade barriers or to gain advantage over foreign competitors. 75
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This study considered the U.S. standards setting process in light of the changing economic and technological environment. Looking across industry sectors, the study compared the U.S. system with those of other countries, particularly the European Economic Community (EEC). Requested by: House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Hon. Robert A. Roe, Chainnan Hon. Robert S. Walker, Ranking Minority Member FOREST SERVICE PLANNING: ACCOMMODATING USES, PRODUCING OUTPUTS AND SUSTAINING ECOSYSTEMS March 1992 Land planning techniques are used to assess trade-offs between available land use alternatives. Since decisions taken today can strongly affect future options for renewable resources management, it is essential that the best information is gathered and linked for effective decision making. To identify opportunities for improving renewable resource planning, OTA 1) assessed existing (e.g., FORPLAN model) and emerging (e.g., expert systems) land and resource planning technologies, 2) identified the technological and institutional constramts and opportunities for land managing agencies, particularli the U.S. Forest Service, to improve its planning process, and 3) proposed options on how products of planning processes can aid Congress in establishing policies and management objectives to guide the stewardship of the Nation's renewable resources. Requested by: Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Hon. Patrick Leahy, Chainnan House of Representatives Committee on Agriculture Hon. Kika de la Garza, Chainnan Hon. Edward Madigan, Ranking Minority Member Subcommittee on Forestry, Family Farms, and Energy Hon. Harold Volkmer, Chainnan, Hon. Sid Morrison, Ranking Minority Member Committee on the Interior Subcommittee on National Parks and Public Lands Hon. Bruce Vento, Chainnan FINDING A BALANCE; COMPUTER SOFIWARE, INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY, AND THE CHALLENGE OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE April 1992 The U.S. software industry accounts for over $60 billion a year in domestic sales and services; including sales of software and services abroad, its revenues exceed $80 billion a year. The software industry is facing growing controversies concerning the appropriate scope of protection for computer programs and processes within our current intellectual-property frameworks. This study focuses on the role of intellectual-property policies in protecting software, encouraging a healthy competitive environment, fostering technological progress in software and allied technologies, and promoting the public interest, in a changing international environment. OTA explores the technological changes and trends in software and computer technologies that Congress must confront in adapting our current system of intellectual property protection to meet the demands of the future. 76
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Requested by: House of Representatives Committee on the Judiciary Hon. Jack Brooks, Chainnan Hon. Hamilton Fish, Jr., Ranking Minority Member Subcommittee on Courts, Intellectual Property and the Administration of Justice Hon. Robert W. Kastenmeier, Chainnan, Hon. Carlos J. Moorhead, Ranking Minority Member HOME DRUG INFUSION THERAPY UNDER MEDICARE May 1992 This report examines the safety and effectiveness of home drug infusion therapy and the circumstances under which it can be appropriately provided. The report also examines the implications of more comprehensive Medicare coverage, and alternative payment policies for this service. Requested by: Senate Committee on Finance Hon. Lloyd Bentsen, Chainnan Hon. Bill Bradley Hon. John H. Chafee Hon. Dave Durenberger Hon. John Heinz ( deceased) Hon. George Mitchell Hon. David Pryor Hon. Donald W. Riegle Hon. John D. Rockefeller, IV BUILDING ENERGY EFFICIENCY May 1992 This focuses on energy use in buildings, which accounts for over one-third of all energy used in the United States. Significant energy savings in buildings are possible through the use of commercially available, cost-effective, energy efficient technologies; yet adoption rates for theses technologies are often low. Interviews with industry, property managers, homeowners, and others were used to explore why technology adoption rates are so low. Past Federal efforts to encourage energy efficiency are reviewed, and policy options for encouraging the adoption of energy efficient technologies are discussed. Requested by: Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Hon. John Glenn, Chainnan Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Hon. J. Bennett Johnston, Chainnan Hon. James A. McClure, then Ranking Minority Member Subcommittee on Energy, Regulation, and Conservation Hon. Timothy E. Wirth, Chainnan Hon. Don Nickles, Ranking Minority Member 77 House of Representatives Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chainnan Hon. Norman F. Lent, Ranking Minority Member Subcommittee on Energy and Power Hon. Philip R. Sharp, Chainnan Hon. Carlos J. Moorhead, Ranking Minority Member
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FUELING DEVELOPMENT: PROVIDING ENERGY SERVICES FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES May 1992 A variety of concerns has directed attention toward establishing greater cooperation among the world's governments in developing policies aimed at systematically fostering energy development in the Third World countries while mitigating the environmental impacts of that development. Increasing the level of energy services in developing countries is essential for advancing their economies and raising standards of living. But greater demands for energy in these countries could cause serious problems, for the countries themselves as well as the rest of the world, unless they are handled in ways that are economically and environmentally acceptable. The study examines the energy sector in developing countries, and energy's linkage with economic and social development, and the local and global environment. Second, the study examines the extent to which technology can contribute to the improved efficiency of energy supply, distribution and use in developing countries, the factors determining the rate of technology adoption, and the potential of these technologies for limiting environmental damage. Case studies provide detailed analysis for the handful of developing countries that account for a large share of total developing country energy. Finally, the study addresses ways in which Congress could encourage the adoption of technologies that promote economically and environmentally sound energy development in the poorer countries. The assessment also includes an analysis of how sales by U.S. energy technology vendors to developing countries could benefit the U.S. trade balance, and the policies of other industrialized countries with regard to the transfer of energy technologies to developing countries. Requested by: Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Hon. John Glenn, Chainnan Hon. Joseph Lieberman Congressional Competitiveness Caucus Hon. Claudine Schneider, Co-Chairwoman Endorsers 78 House of Representatives Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chainnan Hon. Norman F. Lent, Ranking Minority Member Subcommittee on Energy and Power Hon. Philip R. Sharp, Chainnan Hon. Carlos J. Moorhead, Ranking Minority Member House of Representatives Select Committee on Hunger Hon. Vic Fazio. Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Africa Hon. Howard Wolpe, Chainnan Subcommittee on Human Rights and International Organizations Hon. Gus Y atron, Chainnan Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs Subcommittee on International Development, Finance, Trade and Monetary Policy Hon. Walter Fauntroy, Chainnan Hon. Jim Leach, Ranking Minority Member
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EVALUATION OF THE OREGON MEDICAID PROPOSAL May 1992 Expensive medical technologies, substantial and growing numbers of poor people, general health care cost increases, and tight fiscal situations in the Federal Government and many States wall have contributed to Medicaid difficulties. The State of Oregon has recently proposed a major departure from Medicaid procedures. It seeks a waiver to excuse it from mandated Federal standards for State participation in the program and to put in place a new but untested system. OTA evaluated the mechanics of Oregon's proposed system, including a methodologic critique. Evidence (from the health care literature and elsewhere) on the efficacy and cost effectiveness of selected medical services for women and children was analyzed with particular attention to how well Oregon's rankings reflect the medical evidence on those services. The report also analyzed the potential implications for the health status of poor women and children due to lack of access to selected technologies and services, especially those low on the Oregon rankings. Requested by: House of Representatives Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chainnan Subcommittee on Health and the Environment Hon. Henry A. Waxman, Chainnan BUILDING FUTURE SECURilY: STRATEGIES FOR RESTRUCTURING THE DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY AND INDUSTRIAL BASE July 1992 A fundamental question for the long-term national security and economic health of the country is how best to manage an overall reduction in expectation on national security to ensure that the Nation retains an adequate defense industrial and technological base and efficiently converts to civilian production those resources no longer needed for defense. This study: 1) provides Congress with an understanding of the current condition and trends in the defense industrial base; 2) identifies and analyzes a range of possible future force structures and resulting requirements for the future defense industrial base; 3)identifies those elements of the defense industrial base that can be partially or totally converted to civilian use; 4) examines alternatives for facilitating the transition of the defense industrial base to a similar, but response, capability; and 5) identifies ways in which the future defense industrial base can make better use of civilian or "dual-use" technologies and manufacturing. Requested by: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Edward M. Kennedy, Chainnan Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Ranking Minority Member Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation Hon. Ernest F. Hollings, Chainnan Committee on Foreign Affairs Hon. Claiborne Pell, Chainnan Senate Committee on Armed Services Subcommittee on Defense, Industry and Technology Hon. Jeff Bingaman, Chainnan House of Representatives Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs Hon. Morris K. Udall, Chainnan Committee on Government Operations Hon. John Conyers, Jr., Chainnan Subcommittee on Commerce, Consumer and Monetary Affairs Hon. Doug Barnard, Jr. RETIRING OLD CARS: PROGRAMS TO SA VE GASOLINE AND REDUCE EMISSIONS July 1992 This report focuses on light-duty vehicles--automobiles and light trucks--that account for a large portion of urban air quality problems. Although cars of 1971 or earlier vintage made up only about 3.4 percent 79
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of the auto fleet in 1990 and were driven less than 2 percent of the miles, the Environmental Protection Agency estimates they created at least 6 percent of the hydrocarbon emissions, 7.5 percent of the carbon monoxide, and 4.7 percent of the nitrogen oxides. Further, because older cars generally are much less fuel efficient than new ones, they burn a disproportionate share of gasoline and thus are responsible for a similarly large share of the environmental economic, and national security effects of gasoline use. Requested by: House of Representatives Committee on Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Energy and Power Hon. Philip K. Sharp, Chainnan CYSTIC FIBROSIS AND DNA TESTS: IMPLICATIONS OF CARRIER SCREENING August 1992 Cystic fibrosis is an inherited disorder predominantly characterized by chronic lung disease. Invariably fatal, it is the most common lethal genetic disease in the United States. Currently, DNA analysis can identify 70 to 75 percent of carriers for cystic fibrosis, and hence about 50 percent of couples at risk. Pressure for widespread carrier screening of potential parents for cystic fibrosis is already building, despite caution raised by medical experts. Several companies are aggressively marketing the test, and estimates of the potential market for cystic fibrosis screening range from $200 million to more than $1 billion. The assessment (1) gathers technical information on cystic fibrosis diagnosis and treatment; (2) examines prospects for DNA tests to detect additional cystic fibrosis mutations; (3) analyzes legal, ethical, and economic issues of population screening for cystic fibrosis, including issues related to quality assurance, confidentiality, disability coverage, health insurance, and reimbursement for screening; ( 4) surveys genetic counselors for their opinions and attitudes toward population screening for cystic fibrosis; and (5) surveys commercial health insurers and health maintenance organizations to assess attitudes, policies, and practices --present and future --toward cystic fibrosis screening. Requested by: House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space and Technology Hon. Robert A. Roe, then Chainnan Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chainnan POLICE BODY ARMOR STANDARDS AND TESTING August 1992 This assessment identifies key issues and seek to resolve technical disputes relating to setting standards for concealable body armor for police officers and testing procedures for determining compliance with standards. Requested by: Senate Committee on Judiciary Hon. Joseph R. Biden, Jr., Chainnan Hon. Strom Thurmond, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Edward M. Kennedy Hon. Dennis DeConcini 80 House of Representatives Rules Committee Hon. John Joseph Moakley, Chainnan Committee on Judiciary Hon. Edward F. Feighan, Member
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A NEW TECHNOLOGICAL ERA FOR AMERICAN AGRICULTURE August 1992 The success of the U.S. agricultural industry no longer depends just on production ability it also requires increased international competitiveness. An increasing need exists to reduce the cost of production and to emphasize economic yields rather than just production yields. Agricultural research plays a vital long term role in ensuring a successful and profitable industry in this new age. Concern exists that public and private sector agricultural research is not responding to the realities of this new age. This assessment provides information on the emerging agricultural technologies for the 1990's and the structure of the research systems that gives rise to these technologies. The technologies will include biotechnology, information technology, and low input technology for the food and agricultural sector. The study examines such areas as: (1) the impact of emerging technologies on the agricultural sector, (2) Federal funding models in agricultural research, (3) direction and planning of agricultural research, ( 4) adequacy of the current structure of the public research and technology transfer system, and ( 5) the changing nature of public and private sector research. Requested by: Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Hon. Patrick J. Leahy, Chainnan Hon. Richard G. Lugar, Ranking Minority Member Subcommittee on Agricultural Research and General Legislation Hon. Thomas A. Daschle, Chainnan THE BIOLOGY OF MENTAL DISORDERS September 1992 This report presents a summary of research into the biological factors associated with schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, major depression, obsessive-compulsive disorder, and panic disorder. The report also discusses support for this research and the social context in which it moves forward. OT A concludes that there have been important advances in understanding the biology of these disorders, and that rich opportunities for further research exist. The report provides policy options for action by the U.S. Congress in three areas: support for research, implications of research findings, and the dissemination of new information. Requested by: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space Hon. Albert Gore, Jr. House of Representatives Committee on Appropriations Hon. Silvio 0. Conte, Ranking Minority Member Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Hon. Robert A. Roe, Chainnan Committee on Veteran Affairs Hon. G.V. (Sonny) Montgomery GREEN PRODUCTS BY DESIGN: CHOICES FOR A CLEANER ENVIRONMENT September 1992 In response to tougher regulations and greater environmental awareness, many companies are beginning to be more concerned with reducing the wastes they generate. As yet, though, few companies take responsibility for their products after they are discarded by consumers and enter the waste stream. The problem is complicated by the fact that designers are using increasingly complex materials--e.g., multi layer food packaging--that are often more difficult to recycle or re-use. This assessment explores how technologies 81
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for disposal or reclamation of "post-consumption" wastes could be coupled more fully to the initial product design process. It examines how present economic incentives and environmental regulations influence choices made by designers, and what changes in public policies might encourage a new environmental ethic in product design. Requested by: House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space and Technology Hon. Robert A. Roe, Chainnan Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chainnan Hon. George E. Brown, Member MONITORING LIMITS ON SEA-LAUNCHED CRUISE MISSILES September 1992 Beginning with a hypothetical arms control regime for nuclear sea-launched cruise missiles (SLCMs), this report examines in detail ways in which compliance with such a regime might be monitored. Surveying the life-cycle of SLCMs from development testing through deployment and storage, the assessment identifies the "indicators" by which the missiles might be tracked and accounted for. It also assesses the paths of evasion that a determined cheater might take to avoid the proposed monitoring measures. Requested by: Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Hon. Claiborne Pell, Chainnan Hon. Jesse Helms, Ranking Minority Member House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs Hon. Dante B. Fascell, Chainnan Hon. William B. Bromfield, Ranking Minority Member U.S.-MEXICO TRADE: PULLING TOGETHER OR PULLING APART? September 1992 Technological changes such as computer-aided manufacturing combined with the evolving strategies of U.S., Mexican, and third-country corporations ( e.g., Japanese multinationals) will affect jobs and job opportunities for Americans. The assessment focused on plant location and technology decisions, as revealed by interviews with corporate managers and influenced by local labor market conditions, including prevailing wage levels and available skills. The report includes: (1) analysis of production technologies, particularly in the motor vehicles and parts industry, and in electronics; (2) analysis of corporate locational decisions and the public policy factors affecting them (e.g., environmental and workplace regulations); and (3) analysis of the relative attractiveness of Mexico as a site for foreign direct investment. OTA examined the range of possible impacts on U.S. jobs and job opportunities, in terms of occupational categories and their skill requirements, as well as wage levels. Requested by: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Edward M. Kennedy, Chaim1an Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Claiborne Pell 82 House of Representatives Committee on Education and Labor Hon. William D. Ford, Chainnan Hon. William F. Goodling, Ranking Minority Member Subcommittee on Labor-Management Relations Hon. Pat Williams, Chainnan Hon. Marge Roukema, Ranking Minority Member
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SPECIAL CARE UNITS FOR PEOPLE WITH ALZHEIMER'S AND OTHER DEMENTIAS: CONSUMER EDUCATION, RESEARCH, REGULATORY AND REIMBURSEMENT ISSUES September 1992 Several million Americans have Alzheimer's disease or another disease or condition that causes dementia. As our population ages, the number of people with these devastating diseases and conditions will increase relentlessly. Families take care of individuals with dementia at home for as long as possible, but most individuals with dementia are likely to spend some time in a nursing home in the often long course of their illness. Until recently, little attention has been paid to the special needs of nursing home residents with dementia. In many nursing homes, they have received and continue to receive inappropriate care that exacerbates their cognitive impairments and behavioral symptoms and further reduces their quality of life. This OT A report analyzes the available information about special care units for people with dementia. It discusses ways in which the Federal Government could encourage and support what is positive about special care units and at the same time protect vulnerable patients and their families from special care units that actually provide nothing special for their patients. Requested by: Senate Special Committee on Aging Hon. David Pryor, Chainnan Background Papers House of Representatives Select Committee on Aging Subcommittee on Human Services Hon. Olympia J. Snowe, Ranking Minority Member SCREENING MAMMOGRAPHY IN PRIMARY CARE SETTINGS: IMPLICATIONS, COST, AND QUALITY October 1991 Until recently, primary care physicians rarely offered screening mammograms as part of their practices. The interest of primary care practices in becoming suppliers of screening mammograms has been growing, however. The proliferation of equipment in the primary care setting has implications for the volume of services obtained by individual providers and, hence, for the cost and quality of the services provided in all settings of care. This Background Paper examines the implications for cost and quality, as well as for access to mammography, of expanding the supply of mammographic services in the primary care setting. The special issues raised by third-party businesses that package mammography services for primary care physicians are also discussed. MEDICAL MONITORING AND SCREENING IN THE WORKPLACE: RESULTS OF A SURVEY October 1991 Screening of prospective employees for health status and certain behaviors and monitoring of workers' health are generally thought to be widespread in American workplaces, but few data exist about either practices. This OTA Background Paper presents the results of a survey of 1,500 U.S. companies, the 50 largest utilities, and the largest unions. The survey was designed to obtain information about the types of medical monitoring and screening done in the U.S. and the extent of their use. 83
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AMERICAN MILITARY POWER: FUTURE NEEDS, FUTURE CHOICES October 1991 America's global security environment is changing profoundly, pushing the country toward a fundamental reevaluation of its military requirements and those of the supporting defense technology and industrial base. If U.S.-Soviet relations do not deteriorate, defense procurement could accelerate its present decline though the end of the decade. This Background Paper outlines some of the issues of importance for making choices about the future nature and role of the U.S. armed forces, and suggests how these choices will affect defense base requirements. HIV IN THE HEALTHCARE WORKPLACE November 1991 Reports of five cases of HIV transmission within a dental practice raised issues regarding patient safety and received much public attention. The Centers for Disease Control's reports of these cases and CDC's subsequent recommendations for preventing transmission of HIV and the hepatitis B virus to patients during exposure-prone invasive procedures have in turn led Congress to consider several actions directed at HIV in the health care workplace. This Background Paper examines evidence of the risk of HIV transmission in the health care workplace and discusses the policy implications of CDC guidelines and congressional actions in response to this risk. THE 1992 WORLD ADMINISTRATIVE RADIO CONFERENCE (WARC 1992: ISSUES FOR U.S. INTERNATIONAL SPECTRUM POLICY November 1991 A host of new technologies and services, such as digital audio broadcasting, high-definition television, and personal communications services, are vying with existing radio-based applications for a slice of the valuable, but crowded, radio spectrum. The radio frequency spectrum is a common natural resource shared by the nations of the world. The World Administrative Radio Conference meeting in Spain in February 1992 (WARC-92) will attempt to reassign the radio frequencies in order to take advantage of these new applications, while still accommodating the needs of existing users. The Background Paper examined the U.S. preparations process for WARC-92, highlighting efforts to integrate the needs and concerns of various interest groups. It also reviewed the forces and trends affecting the U.S. as it approached W ARC-92, and is intended to inform future congressional oversight of the domestic and international radio communication policy process. THE FBI FINGERPRINT IDENTIFICATION AUTOMATION PROGRAM: ISSUES AND OPTIONS November 1991 This Background Paper assesses the FBI's strategic plans to modernize and fully automate its fingerprint identification and criminal history record system. The paper focuses on key assumptions that will affect the sizing and procurement of the new FBI system, and on other related steps that appear necessary to ensure complete and up-to-date record systems. These include full implementation of a Federal/State/local partnership for maintaining and exchanging fingerprint and criminal history records; enactment of an interstate compact of Federal legislation setting out uniform rules for the exchange of such records; standards and funding for improving criminal history record completeness and disposition reporting; and privacy and security protections for electronic fingerprint and record information. DIOXIN TREATMENT TECHNOLOGIES November 1991 Nearly 100 hazardous waste sites around the United States have serious problems with dioxin contamination. Very little actual cleanup has been done at these sites. Plans to incinerate dioxin-contaminated materials at some sites have caused concern in the local communities that has led to public debate about the effectiveness of incineration and the availability of other remediation alternatives. This Background Paper presents the status of national efforts to cleanup dioxin-contaminated sites and the technologies that have been used, proposed, and researched. It covers thermal and nonthermal treatment techniques as well as approaches 84
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such as stabilization and storage. It discusses the development of these technologies as well as advantages and disadvantages of their use. REVIEW OF A PROTOCOL FOR A STUDY OF REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH OUTCOMES AMONG WOMEN VIETNAM VETERANS December 1991 OT A's Veterans Studies Advisory Panel met on November 21, 1991, to review the protocol for "A Study of Reproductive Health Outcomes Among Women Vietnam Veterans." This Background Paper contains the results of the review. NASA'S OFFICE OF SPACE SCIENCE AND APPLICATIONS: PROCESS, PRIORITY AND GOALS January 1992 This Background Paper summarizes a one-day workshop convened to assess the effectiveness of the planning and priority-setting mechanisms used by NASA's Office of Space Science and Applications (OSSA) in carrying out its diverse scientific program. MANAGING INDUSTRIAL SOLID WASTES FROM MANUFACTURING, MINING, OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION, AND UTILITY COAL COMBUSTION March 1992 The 1976 Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) is the major statute governing what are called solid wastes. Federal efforts to date under RCRA have focused on controlling the management and disposal of certain "hazardous" wastes. The remaining solid wastestream, the subject of this Background Paper, dwarfs that defined as hazardous. Although not classified as hazardous, some of this remaining wastestream does contain toxic and other undesirable constituents. This Background Paper examines wastes generated by industrial activities that play a dominant role in our national economy oil and gas production, mining and mineral processing, coal combustion, and manufacturing. ALASKAN WATER FOR CALIFORNIA? THE SUBSEA PIPELINE OPTION March 1992 The availability of fresh water has shaped--and will continue to shape-the development of the Western United States. Questions about who gets the available water, where it will come from, how it is used, how much is paid for it and by whom, and where future demand will go are of paramount importance to farmers, planners, environmentalist, professional water managers, and, increasingly, average citizens. This Background Paper focuses on one technological option for increasing the supply of fresh water to the Southwest--that of building a freshwater subsea pipeline to transport water from Alaska to California. This paper examines important issues related to this subject, including engineering feasibility and cost, Alaskan water availability, California's projected water demand, and other alternatives for meeting future water needs. THE MENOPAUSE, HORMONE THERAPY, AND WOMEN'S HEALTH May 1992 Ongoing debate about the risks and benefits of estrogen replacement for menopausal and postmenopausal women has raised questions about the adequacy of research in this area. This study evaluates research conducted to date, assesses the extent to which research areas are being addressed, and proposes topics that should be considered in investigating the acute and long-term effects of menopause and designing treatment. TRADE AND ENVIRONMENT: CONFLICTS AND OPPORTUNITIES May 1992 Industry throughout the world increasingly must take into account environmental issues such as ozone depletion and climate change. The challenge for American firms and the U.S. government will be to resolve the 85
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need for environmentally sound practices with the need to stay competitive internationally. This study examines the context in which trade and environmental issues interact, including how to address environmental concerns in trade negotiations and agreements, what forms of technical assistance our major competitors give their industries in dealing with environmental regulations, and the competitiveness of U.S. business in the growing global market for environmental technologies such as pollution control and waste disposal. It also examines the role U.S. firms and the U.S. government could play in technology transfer to the developing world. LESSONS IN RESTRUCTURING DEFENSE INDUSTRY: THE FRENCH EXPERIENCE June 1992 This Background Paper describes the structure and management of the French defense-industrial base and reviews a variety of strategies the French Government and industry are pursuing to nationalized the base while preserving key French defense contractors in world markets. IDENTIFYING AND CONTROLLING PULMONARY TOXICANTS June 1992 This Background Paper describes technologies available to identify substances toxic to the lung and Federal efforts to control human exposure to such substances through regulatory and research programs. DISPOSAL OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS: ALTERNATIVE TECHNOLOGIES June 1992 This Background Paper briefly describes the Army's chemical weapons destruction program, discusses the factors that could affect a decision to develop state of development of proposed alternatives, discusses the alternatives, and illustrates the difficulty of gaining public acceptance of complex technical systems. CDC'S CASE DEFINITION OF AIDS: IMPLICATIONS OF PROPOSED REVISIONS June 1992 The Centers for Disease Control's (CDC) AIDS case definition is used to monitor trends in the number and distribution of AIDS cases in the U.S. The AIDS case definition measures severe morbidity due to infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). This information is then used in formulating Federal and State policies for the prevention, treatment, and control of AIDS. In addition, the AIDS case definition has been used in disability determinations by the Social Security Administration. This Background Paper examines the epidemiologic evidence used by the CDC in deciding to revise the AIDS case definition, and the impact the proposed definition will have on surveillance. The paper also explores the logistical consequences and other implications of the revised definition, including its impact on Social Security disability determinations. REMOTELY SENSED DATA FROM SPACE: DISTRIBUTION, PRICING AND APPLICATIONS July 1992 This Background Paper focuses on decisions about the future course of the Landsat land remote sensing satellite program and the experiment with commercialization that began in 1984. A consensus is emerging within the government that Landsat 7 will be funded and managed by the public sector. While giving greater assurance that Landsat data will continue to be available for scientists and other users of the data, returning Landsat operations to the public sector creates a new set of problems. DO MEDICAID AND MEDICARE PATIENTS SUE MORE OFTEN THAN OTHER PATIENTS? July 1992 Whether Medicaid and Medicare patients are likely to sue more or less often than other patients is a critical question in studying the recent trend of reduced physician participation in Medicaid and other publicly funded programs. OT A concluded that these patients are not more likely to sue and may actually sue less often than would be expected on the basis of their medical risks. 86
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DOES HEALTH INSURANCE MAKE A DIFFERENCE? September 1992 This Background Paper provides interim results of OT A's assessment Technology, Insurance, and the Health Care System. It reviews the scientific literature linking health insurance status with access to and the use of health services, and with individual health outcomes. DIFFICULT-TO-REUSE NEEDLES FOR THE PREVENTION OF HIV INFECTION AMONG INJECTING DRUG USERS September 1992 Some health policy experts have suggested that a redesign of IV injection technology used in the U.S. health care system could lead to a reduction in the spread of HIV among intravenous drug users by eliminating their ability to share injection equipment. This study reviews proposals for needles and syringes that are difficult or impossible for reuse. In addition, it analyzes the potential for drug users to defeat these designs, the likely impact of switching to "single-use" injection equipment on the behavior of drug users, and the impact of such a change on the larger health care system including its costs and its effect on medical waste. Publications Catalog Assessment Activities Annual Report Administrative Documents 87 October 1991 December 1991 March 1992
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16.B. Publication Information Requests for OTA Publications During fiscal year 1992, OTA's Publications Distribution Office processed over 24,663 telephone and mail requests. Of these, 17,679 were telephone and 6,984 were mail requests. A majority of the non congressional requests received in the Publications Distribution Office were referred to the U.S. Government Printing Office or the National Technical Information Service for purchase of OTA documents. Additional requests were processed by OTA program offices and the OTA Congressional and Public Affairs Office. The Publications Distribution Office received requests for multiple copies of many of OTA's reports from congressional offices. The largest number of congressional requests for reports were for: o Improving Automobile Fuel Economy: New Standards, New Approaches o Competing Economies: America, Europe, and the Pacific Rim o Biotechnology in a Global Economy o After the Cold War: Living with Lower Defense Spending o Testing in American Schools: Asking the Right Questions o Finding a Balance: Computer Software, Intellectual Property and the Challenge of Technological Change o U.S. Oil Import Vulnerability: The Technical Replacement Capability o Making Things Better: Competing in Manufacturing o Miniaturization Technologies o Summary: Worker Training-Competing in the New International Economy o Building Energy Efficiency o Home Drug Infusion Therapy Under Medicare Multiple copies of OTA reports and summaries were also requested by various government agencies and private organizations including: ARAMCO Services Company; Motor Vehicles Manufacturing Association; General Motors Corporation; U.S. Department of Labor; University of Georgia; U.S. Department of Agriculture; The Boeing Company; U.S. Chamber of Commerce; Maryland Biotechnology Institute; Industrial Biotechnology Association; Lockheed Missile & Space Company; IBM Corporation; American Society for Training & Development, Inc.; Mississippi Community College Library; Dow Chemical; American Mathematical Society; General Accounting Office; Wellesley College Bookstore; Sandia National Laboratories; U.S. Department of Education; National Science Foundation; National Association of State Boards of Education; U.S. Information Agency; National Governor's Association; NASA; Small Business Administration; National Home Infusion Association; Mt. Sinai School of Medicine; Software Publishers Association; Brown University; U.S. Department of Energy; and National Academy of Sciences. The Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, sold out several titles and reprinted eight OT A titles during fiscal year 1992; these include: o Building Energy Efficiency o After the Cold War: Living with Lower Defense Spending o Global Arms Trade: Commerce in Advanced Military Technology and Weapons o Redesigning Defense: Planning the Transition to the Future U.S. Defense Industrial Base o Federally Funded Research: Decisions for a Decade o Global Standards: Building Blocks for the Future o Finding a Balance: Computer Software, Intellectual Property and the Challenge of Technological Change o Informing the Nation: Federal Information Dissemination in an Electronic Age 88
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Private Sector Reprinting of OTA Publications OT A publications are sometimes selected by commercial publishers or private organizations for reprinting. For example, in fiscal year 1992 commercial publishers requested to reprint the following: o Cutter Information Corp. (MA) Changing by Degrees: Steps to Reduce Greenhouse Gases o Livestock Industry Promotion Corp. (CO)--translation and reprint U.S. Dairy Industry at a Crossroad: Biotechnology and Policy Choices Additionally, other agencies, organizations, and magazines requested the use of text, photographs, or other graphics from OTA publications for use in articles and reviews, including: The Futurist (articles on Testing in American Schools: Asking the Right Questions; Rural America at the Crossroads: Networking for the Future; and Fueling Development: Energy Technologies for Developing Countries); Civil Engineering ( article on Changing by Degrees: Steps to Reduce Greenhouse Gases); Environments Journal, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario (review of Technologies for Prehistoric and Historic Preservation); The Public Historian (review of Technologies for Prehistoric and Historic Preservation); State Education Leader, Education Commission of the States, Denver, CO (information from Testing in American Schools: Asking the Right Questions); Aviation Week (information from After the Cold War: Living with Lower Defense Spending) 89
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16.C. Assessments in Progress as of October 1, 1992, and Related Legislation U.S. ENERGY EFFICIENCY: PAST TRENDS AND FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES Environmental policy and/or economic conditions are increasingly providing incentives for pursuing or mandating energy efficiency and conservation in many economic sectors of the U.S. economy. This assessment focuses on the technical potential and commercial prospects for future efficiency gains. In addition to the full assessment report, several interim reports will be produced that will examine potential efficiency gains from the perspective of major end users: the residential and commercial sector, industry, transportation, and government, and the possible alternative roles of public and private sector involvement in promoting energy efficiency in these sectors. Possible Impact on Legislation: The report on transportation energy conservation, examines a broad range of mechanisms capable of reducing energy use and greenhouse gas; emissions in the transportation sector, including regulatory, R&D, and incentive programs to boost auto and light truck efficiency and promote alternative fuels; conservation measures such as parking restrictions, HO lanes, forgiveness of tolls for carpools, corporate promotion of vanpools, etc.; energy taxes; targeted transit system rehabilitation, for older, denser cities with existing systems; integrated plans that seek a major shift from private to public transportation; and system problems; and integrated plans that seek large conservation gains with major increases in efficiency and use of alternative fuels, widespread use of intelligent highways to combat congestion, economic incentives to limit travel such as time-of-day charges, energy taxes, changes in tax incentives for parking, etc. Several of these issues are likely to be on Congress's agenda in the coming session. Project Director: Peter Blair Estimated publication date: Summer 1993 Requested by: Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Hon. John Glenn, Chainnan Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Hon. J. Bennett Johnston, Chainnan Hon. James A. McClure, Ranking Minority Member Subcommittee on Energy Regulation and Conservation Hon. Timothy Wirth, Chainnan Hon. Don Nickles, Ranking Minority Member House of Representatives Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chainnan Hon. Norman F. Lent, Ranking Minority Member Subcommittee on Energy and Power Hon. Philip R. Sharp, Chainnan Hon. Carlos J. Moorehead, Ranking Minority Member Committee on Science, Space and Technology Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Agricultural Research and Environment Hon. James H. Scheuer RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGY: RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT, AND COMMERCIAL PROSPECTS New concerns over energy security, economic growth, and environmental quality are once again focusing interest on renewable energy technologies. Much has been learned during the past 15 years of work with these technologies and resources, but the environment in which they are being commercialized has changed considerably. This assessment of renewable energy technologies will address the technological opportunities and limits as well as the economic, institutional, and other factors that assist or impede commercialization. These factors will be addressed for each of the major energy supply and end-use sectors: residential and commercial, industry, agriculture and forestry, transport, and the electric utility industry. Possible Impact on Legislation: The Energy Policy Act of 1992 and other legislation dealt with many aspects of renewables, including use of passive solar in buildings, alternative fuels in vehicles, transmission access by independent power producers, renewable energy investment tax credits and production credits, and many 90
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others. Despite this sweeping legislation, a number of issues remain unresolved and will likely be raised in the 103rd Congress. These include: R&D needs for renewable energy technology development; policies to increase U.S. competitiveness in export markets for renewable energy technologies; policies to support utility use of "green pricing," "green RFPs" or other mechanisms to aid in aggregating demand for renewable energy technologies and to minimize transaction costs for small renewable resource developers; policies to encourage utilities to take into account the risk of fossil fuel price increases in planning utility investment portfolios; policies to include consideration of environmental externalities and other social costs in energy planning and pricing; federal lands policies to provide equitable access to renewable energy resources while preserving the broader public interest; performance of the Renewable Energy Joint Venture Program; and evaluation of the various tax and other explicit and implicit subsidies of different energy resources and technologies contained in the Energy Security Act of 1992 .. Project Director: Sam Baldwin Estimated publication date: Spring/Summer 1993 Requested by: U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space and Technology Hon. George Brown, Chainnan Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Agriculture and Environment Hon. James H. Scheuer, Chainnan, Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chainnan Hon. Norman F. Lent, Ranking Minority Member Subcommittee on Energy and Power Hon. Philip Sharp, Chainnan, Hon. Carlos J. Moorhead, Ranking Minority Member Endorsers Hon. Charles Grassley, Member of the Technology Assessment Board U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Agriculture Subcommittee on Department Operations, Research, and Foreign Agriculture Hon. Charlie Rose, Chainnan Subcommittee on Forests, Family Farms, and Energy Hon. Harold L. Volkmer, Chainnan Committee on Appropriations Subcommittee on Energy and Water Development Hon. Vic Fazio, Vtce Chainnan AGING NUCLEAR POWERPLANTS: LIFE ATIAINMENT, LICENSE EXTENSION AND DECOMMISSIONING This assessment will examine the technical, economic, institutional, and safety factors determining the useful lives of existing nuclear power plants. It will examine both the prospects for life extension of nuclear plants, and the cost and performance of those plants in attaining their currently-licensed operating lives. Because one major safety and economic impact of extending plant life is the deferral of nuclear plant decommissioning, this assessment will also examine decommissioning technology. Project Director: Robin Roy Estimated publication date: Spring 1993 91
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Requested by: Senate Committee Governmental Affairs Hon. John Glenn, Chairman U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Energy and Commerce ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE This study will review the energy technology needs of several republics of the former Soviet Union plus Hungary, Poland, and Czechoslovakia. It will pay particular attention to increasing the efficiency of energy use, increasing oil production in Russia and Azerbaijan, natural gas production and transmission, nuclear safety, coal mining, and electric power production. Opportunities for reducing emission of pollutants will also be examined. The study will then determine which technologies the United States can supply and how they can be facilitated. It will evaluate the impacts, both positive and negative, for the United States and for the recipients. Finally, it will analyze policy options for the Congress to influence technology transfers to maximize U.S. benefits, especially in light of budget constraints. Possible Impact on Legislation: Congress is expected to use the study in several ways. Large increases in foreign aid have been proposed (President Bush offered $24 billion) to help these countries, but Congress has failed to authorize any foreign assistance budgets in recent years. The study will help clarify the role that the energy portion of foreign assistance can play in Eastern Europe and the costs and benefits to the United States. In fact, improving the energy situation can play a leading role in supporting economic reform and democratization, a major foreign policy interest of the Congress. The report can also be used in making energy and environmental policy for the United States, since both must be viewed in the international context. Both production and consumption in Eastern Europe are large enough to significantly affect world energy prices. and the release of global warming gases. Export policy is another focus. Many of our trade competitors are much more involved in supporting exports. This study will identify situations where increased U.S. support could improve sales of equipment and services. It will also discuss how loosening export controls could affect national security. Project Director: Alan Crane Estimated publication date: Spring 1994 Requested by: Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Hon. Quentin N. Burdick, Chairman Hon. Joseph I. Lieberman Committee on Foreign Relations Hon. Claiborne Pell, Chainnan Hon. Jesse Helms, Ranking Minority Member Subcommittee on European Affairs Hon. Joseph Biden, Jr., Chairman Hon. Larry Pressler, Ranking Minority Member TECHNOLOGY AND DEFENSE CONVERSION U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs Hon. Dante B. Fascell, Chairman Hon. Lee H. Hamilton Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chairman Hon. Norman F. Lent, Ranking Minority Member Subcommittee on Energy and Power Hon. Philip R. Sharp, Chairman Hon. Carlos J. Moorhead U.S. defense needs have changed fundamentally since the end of the Cold War. The Nation has begun the transition to an economy less devoted to defense, and further deep, sustained defense cuts are to be expected. The challenge is to keep dislocation of workers and communities to a minimum, and take advantage of 92
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opportunities to channel human and technological resources into building a stronger economy. The first report of this assessment discussed the effects of lower defense spending on workers, communities, and companies. It considered options for easing the transition for displaced workers and hard-hit communities, and for investing in technology development and diffusion to promote growth and open new opportunities for displaced workers and defense-dependent communities. The second and final report of the assessment will concentrate on the potential for redirecting Federal R&D resources from military goals to strengthening the nation's economic performance. It will also consider possible investments in new national initiatives that could fulfill public needs while at the same time improving our industrial competitiveness and making use of resources formerly devoted to defense. Possible Impact on Legislation: The following bills, introduced in the 102nd Congress, deal with issues pertinent to the Defense Conversion assessment. Similar bills are likely to be introduced in the 103rd Congress. H.R. 1452. A bill to establish a program for research and development on magnetic levitation transportation. H.R. 1538. A bill to establish a national electric vehicle research, demonstration, and commercialization program for the United States. H.R. 2102 (and H.R. 2878, H.R. 2914, S.797). A bill to establish a program of research and development and construction of a commercial magnetic levitation transportation system. H.R. 2761. A bill to establish a National Magnetic Levitation Design Program. H.R. 2944. A bill to further the development of commercially viable advanced transportation systems and electric passenger vehicles in the United States, and for other purposes. S. 979. A bill to provide for strong Department of Energy support of research and development of technologies identified in the most recent National Critical Technologies Report as critical to United States economic prosperity and national security. S. 999. A bill to authorize a Federal program to promote the development and implementation of Intelligent Vehicle-Highway Systems. S. 1000. A bill to ensure that the recommendations of the Commission on the Consolidation and Conversion of Defense Research and Development Laboratories are available for consideration before any action is taken to close or realign Department of Defense laboratories pursuant to the Defense Base Closure and Realignment Act of 1990. S. 1351 (and S. 2566). A bill to establish partnerships involving Department of Energy laboratories and educational institution, industry, and other Federal agencies, for purposes of development and application of technologies critical to national security and scientific and technological competitiveness. ( check floor action of both). Interim Publications: After the Cold War: Living with Lower Defense Spending (published 2/92) Project Director: Katherine Gillman Estimated publication date: Spring 1993 Requested by: Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Hon. Claiborne Pell, Chainnan Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Edward M. Kennedy, Chainnan 93 U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs Hon. Morris Udall, then Chainnan Committee on Government Operations Hon. John Conyers, Jr., Chainnan
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Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Ernest F. Hollings Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin Hatch, Ranking Minority Member Committee on Armed Services Subcommittee on Defense, Industry and Technology Hon. Jeff Bingaman, Chainnan Subcommittee on Defense, Industry and Technology Hon. Doug Barnard, Jr., Chainnan AMERICAN INDUSTRY AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IMPLICATIONS FOR TRADE AND U.S. COMPETITIVENESS Industry throughout the world increasingly must take into account environmental issues such as ozone depletion and climate change. U.S. industry will face increasing environmental pressures, but also new opportunities, with different sectors affected differently. The challenge for American firms and the U.S. government will be to resolve the need for environmentally sound practices with the need to stay competitive internationally. This study will examine the context in which trade and environmental issues interact, including how to address environmental concerns in trade negotiations and agreements, what forms of technical assistance our major competitors give their industries in dealing with environmental regulations, and the competitiveness of U.S. business in the growing global market for environmental technologies such as pollution control and waste disposal. It will also examine the role U.S. firms and the U.S. government could play in technology transfer to the developing world. Possible Impact on Legislation: Issues addressed by this assessment are pertinent to legislation on such topics as environmental technology development, export promotion, pollution prevention, the relationship between environmental requirements and trade agreements, foreign assistance and sustainable development. Hundreds of bills have been introduced on these subjects in the 102nd Congress. Those listed below are likely to be reintroduced in a similar form in the 103rd Congress. H.R. 2508. A bill to amend the Foreign Assistance Act of 1%1 to rewrite the authorities of that Act in order to establish more effective assistance programs and eliminate obsolete and inconsistent provisions, to amend the Arms Export Control Act, to authorize appropriations for foreign assistance programs for fiscal years 1992 and 1993. H.R. 5895. National Environmental Business Foundation Act of 1992. H.R. 5587 (and S. 2866). A bill to establish a program, to be known as the "ADEPT" Program, for the provision of international assistance in the deployment of energy and energy-related environmental practices and technologies. H.R. 6044. A bill to promote the export of United States environmental technology, to promote biological diversity conservation and cooperation in the Western Hemisphere. S. 59. A bill to mandate a study of the impact on international trade of compliance with international environmental agreements and the justification of foreign nation environment, conservation and health laws, and to amend the Trade Act of 1974. S. 984. The International Pollution Deterrence Act of 1991. S. 1965. A bill to amend the Clean Water Act to provide global environmental protection incentives and enhanced competitiveness of domestic business. S. 2632 (and H.R. 5374) A bill to establish the National Environmental Technologies Agency. 94
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S. 3261. A bill to promote, as a priority in United States Trade promotion programs, the export of United states goods and services to control or reduce pollution and to clean up existing pollution problems. Project Director: Wendell Fletcher Estimated publication date: Fall 1993 Requested by: U.S.House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs Hon. Dante B. Fascell, Chainnan Hon. William S. Broomfield, Ranking Minority Member Committee on Energy and Commerce. Hon. John Dingell, Chainnan MULTINATIONAL FIRMS AND THE U.S. TECHNOWGY BASE Multinational corporations (MNCs) will play a major role in the development and commercial application of technologies that are critical to the prosperity and security of the Nation. Accordingly, the study will analyze a range of existing laws, regulations and policy options which affect the likelihood that critical technologies will be developed and produced in the United States. This assessment will examine the impact of foreign direct investment (FOi) on the health of the U.S. technology and manufacturing base. It will describe and analyze how assembly or turnkey manufacturing operations (run by MNCs with U.S. or foreign names) displace, augment, or otherwise affect indigenous technology development and manufacturing. The study will also address the mechanisms through which MNCs transfer innovative technology from one country to another. Questions to be addressed include whether foreign MNCs buy or fmance U.S. high-technology firms to gain access to technological innovation. Possible Impact on Legislation: The following bills, introduced in the 102d Congress, deal with subjects germane to the MNC assessment. It is likely that similar bills will be introduced in the 103d Congress. H.R.682 A bill to amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to impose a minimum tax of 5 percent of gross income on foreign and foreign-owned corporations which do not provide sufficient information to accurately determine their taxable income. H.R. 1031 A bill to discourage domestic corporations from establishing foreign manufacturing subsidiaries in order to avoid Federal taxes by including in gross income of United States shareholders in foreign corporations the retained earnings of any such subsidiary which are attributable to manufacturing operations in runaway plants or tax havens. H.R.1347 A bill to provide regulatory incentives to promote national treatment by foreign countries to United States providers of certain financial and communications services, and for other purposes. H.R. 1396 A bill to amend the Trade Act of 1974 in order to require reciprocal responses to foreign acts, policies, and practices that deny national treatment to United States investment. H.R.2913 A bill to provide for equality of State taxation of domestic and foreign corporations. H.R. 2948 A bill to amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to eliminate inequities and provide symmetry in certain foreign provisions, and for other purposes. H.R. 4173 A bill to impose restrictions on the importation into, and the sale within, the United States of certain motor vehicles; to increase the efficiency of domestic motor vehicle manufacturers; and for other purposes. 95
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H.R. 4304 A bill to amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to enhance tax equity and fairness by imposing an alternative minimum tax on corporations importing products into the United States at artificially inflated prices. H.R. 4947 A bill to amend Chapter 15 of the National Security Act of 1947 to promote the transfer of technology to United State's industries for the national welfare. Project Director: William Keller Estimated publication date: Spring 1994 Requested by Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation Hon. Ernest F. Hollings,Chainnan Subcommittee on Foreign Commerce and Tourism Hon. John D. Rockefeller, Chainnan PROLIFERATION OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION The abatement of the strategic competition between the United States and the Soviet Union, the Gulf War, and the dissolution of the USSR have all brought the issue of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction into the forefront of national security planning. Such weapons, which can range from hundreds to millions of times more deadly than conventional weapons of the same size, pose a serious challenge to the United States. This assessment will compare the risks posed by proliferation of various weapons of mass destruction, assess the effectiveness of current nonproliferation policies, and formulate relevant Congressional policy options, including measures designed both to impede proliferation and to expose it. Possible Impact on Legislation: As reports are issued, we expect to contribute to Congressional consideration of the annual authorization and oversight bills dealing with national defense, foreign policy, foreign trade, and intelligence activities, which will increasingly deal with proliferation. In addition, early in 1993 the Senate will be asked to consent to the ratification of the Chemical Weapons Convention, an international treaty banning chemical weapons. Numerous proliferation-related bills are also certain to be introduced in the next Congress. Major subjects of legislation are likely to include: sanctions against foreign nations that contribute to nuclear proliferation; sanctions against U.S. and foreign firms and individuals trafficking in goods, technology, or finances that assist nuclear proliferation; requirements for Executive branch reports on foreign noncompliance with nonproliferation commitments; limits beyond those now in force on export of dual-use technologies that might have nuclear weapons applications; additional support for the International Atomic Energy Agency, and strengthening of IAEA nuclear safeguards; support for dismantlement of former Soviet nuclear weapons and prevention of transfer from the former Soviet Union of goods, technologies or expertise that would contribute to proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; support for additional Executive Branch research and activities to prevent proliferation; efforts to block proliferation of weapons of mass destruction to specific countries, such as Iraq or Iran. Project Director: Gerald Epstein Estimated Publication Dates Assessing the Threat (Spring 1993) Policies for Government Action (Fall 1993) Requested by: Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Hon. Claiborne Pell, Chainnan Hon. Jesse Helms, Ranking Minority Member %
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Committee on Governmental Affairs Hon. John Glenn, Chainnan Hon. William V. Roth, Jr., Ranking Minority Member EARTH OBSERVATION SYSTEMS The United States and other countries now operate a variety of satellite remote sensing systems for monitoring the land, oceans, and atmosphere throughout the world. The United States currently operates Landsat and the weather satellite systems (both civilian and military). NASA scientific satellites and instruments probe the Earth's environment to assist scientific studies. NASA also plans to launch a series of sophisticated satellites (the Earth Observing System, or EOS) over the next two decades to gather global environmental data that would, among other things, assist in assessing global atmospheric warming and in managing Earth's natural resources. This OTA assessment will explore the need for and nature of the data these systems would generate, and how the systems would be operated to provide useful information. Potential Impact on Legislation: This assessment will provide input to the Appropriations Committees of the House and Senate as they deliberate over funding for remote sensing by NASA and NOAA. It will also provide input to the committees with authorization and oversight responsibilities as they consider the future direction of U.S. remote sensing activities. Project Director: Ray Williamson Estimated publication date: Remotely sensed data from space: distribution, pricing and applications (published 7 /92) Future of remote sensing from space Spring 1993 Using Data from Space: Opportunities and Issues Summer 1993 Remote Sensing from Space: International Issues Fall 1993 Requested by: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation Hon. Ernest F. Hollings, Chainnan Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space Hon. Albert Gore, Jr., Chainnan Hon. Larry Pressler, Ranking Minority Member Committee on Appropriations Subcommittee on VA, HUD-Independent Agencies U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space and Technology Hon. George E. Brown, Jr., Chainnan ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL INTEGRATION OF DEFENSE AND CMLIAN TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING There is broad support for reducing regulatory and other barriers to greater reliance on civil technology, manufacturing capacity, and products for defense needs. Integrated development and production of a mix of military and civil items, as demand requires, could reduce defense acquisition costs and improve the international competitiveness of U.S. industry. However, there has been little detailed analysis of specific opportunities for integration. This assessment will examine the current level of integration, identify barriers to integration and opportunities for integration, assess impacts of integration in selected cases, and frame legislative options for promoting integration. Project Director: Jack Nunn Estimated publication date: Fall 1993 97
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Requested by: Senate Committee on Armed Services Hon. Sam Nunn, Chainnan Hon. John W. Warner, Ranking Minority Member Subcommittee on Defense Industry and Technology Hon. Jeff Bingaman, Chainnan Hon. Dan Coats, Ranking Minority Member RESEARCH ON HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Armed Services Hon. Les Aspin, Chainnan Hon. William L. Dickinson, Ranking Minority Member Risk assessment is an analytical tool used to estimate cancer risks to humans from exposure to carcinogens. Risk assessment methodology has improved since Federal agencies adopted it in the early 1970s, but, as expected for a new activity, imperfections and controversies remain. Systematic improvement of risk assessment methods will require basic and applied research as well as decisions about activities that might best be described as data collection. This project will assess the course, results, and applications of research in risk assessment and Federal funding and management of that research. It will address two major concerns that are repeatedly raised within the scientific community and that affect environmental policy. First, how are research funding priorities set? How well does the research that agencies fund match the needs of risk assessors? Second, when research is completed, how are the results incorporated into agency practice? How do agencies decide when a scientific consensus exists? What organizational or other barriers prevent agencies from using the results of the research they fund? Project Director: Dalton Paxman Estimated Publication Date: Spring 1993 Requested by: U. S. House of Representatives Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chainnan TECHNOLOGIES FOR UNDERSTANDING THE ROOT CAUSES OF SUBSTANCE ABUSE AND ADDICTION This assessment will: 1) assess the state-of-the-art of biological research regarding the phenomenon of addiction to a variety of substances; 2) examine and describe psychological and social variables contributing to the abuse of, and addiction to, alcohol and drugs; 3) assess the effectiveness of various substance abuse prevention initiatives; 4) assess ongoing research on the root causes of substance abuse and addiction; 5) analyze various demographic studies that measure substance use and abuse; and 6) evaluate policy implications arising from a state-of-the-art understanding of the root causes of substance abuse and addiction. Project Director: Kevin O'Connor Estimated Publication Date: Summer 1994 Requested by: Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Hon. John Glenn, Chainnan Endorser Hon. William Roth, U.S. Senate 98 U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Government Operations Hon. John Conyers, Jr., Chainnan Hon. Frank Horton, Ranking Minority Member
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OSHA'S SELECTION OF CONTROL TECHNOLOGIES AND ASSESSMENT OF THEIR IMPACTS AND COSTS This assessment will examine how OSHA selects technologies to reduce health and safety risks and how the agency estimates the costs and impacts of those choices. For each regulation selected for study, OTA will: 1) examine how OSHA selected the control technologies; 2) describe how OSHA estimated the expected impacts of the regulations on productivity and innovation and the costs of compliance; 3) compare OSHA's estimates to the measured (post-regulatory) impacts and costs of the regulations; and 4) identify factors that contributed both to accurate and inaccurate estimates and prepare options for congressional action that will encourage accurate estimation of impacts and costs. Project Director: Michael Gough Estimated Publication Date: Spring 1994 Requested by: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Edward M. Kennedy, Chainnan U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Education and Labor Hon. William D. Ford, Chainnan THE HUMAN GENOME PROJECT AND PATENTING HUMAN DNA SEQUENCES The Human Genome Project, an estimated 15-year, $3-billion project, has been undertaken with the expectation that it will improve genetic diagnoses and advance therapies. In 1991, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) applied for patents on thousands of human DNA sequences of uncharacterized function, representing approximately 5 percent of all human genes. The move set off a storm of controversy in the United States and abroad, although the issues raised extend beyond the NIH applications. Who can "own" human DNA sequences and what must be known about a DNA sequence to permit patentability, if it should be permitted at all? This assessment will (1) analyze the degree to which DNA sequences can be incorporated into patents; (2) discuss the social and ethical issues of ownership of human DNA sequences; (3) examine the effect of filing early patents on research conduct, and whether the effect is different for U.S. scientists, universities, industry, national laboratories, the Federal Government, and international research collaboration; and (4) assess the legal and economic impacts of existing technology transfer laws on human genome research. Project Director: Robyn Nishimi Estimated Publication Date: Spring 1994 Requested by: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Edward M. Kennedy, Chainnan Committee on Appropriations Hon. Mark 0. Hatfield, Ranking Minority Member Committee on Judiciary Subcommittee on Patents, Copyrights, and Trademarks Hon. Dennis DeConcini, Chainnan ALTERNATIVE COCA REDUCTION STRATEGIES IN THE ANDEAN REGION Heightened concern over the impacts of illegal drug use and production on man and the environment has stimulated interest in exploring avenues to reduce or eliminate coca production. Ongoing and past supply reduction efforts and results (i.e., crop substitution and coca eradication) will be reviewed. Opportunities for potential alternative crops and cropping systems, biological control approaches, and the institutional and infrastructural needs to support successful efforts will be discussed. 99
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Possible Impact on Legislation: Could be used in reauthorization or appropriations for International Narcotics Control Act (P.L.101-231), Foreign Assistance Act (P.L.99-83) of 1961, and proposed amendments that deal with its relationship to narcotics production and control in lesser developed countries, Andean Trade Preference Act that established the Andean Trade Initiative, and the Enterprise for the Americas Initiative Act of 1991 (EAi). Project Director: Patricia Durana Estimated Publication Date: Winter 1993 Requested by: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Ranking Minority Member Committee on the Judiciary Hon. Joseph R. Biden, Jr., Chainnan Hon. Strom Thurmond, Ranking Minority Member NON-INDIGENOUS SPECIES IN THE UNITED STATES U.S. House of Representatives Select Committee on Narcotics Abuse and Control Hon. Charles B. Rangel, Chainnan Hon. Lawrence Coughlin, Ranking Minority Member Environmental and economic risks are posed by the intentional and accidental introduction of undesirable exotic species into the United States. Policies and methods to manage intentional and accidental introductions might provide mechanisms to reduce such risks. This assessment will examine the risks and benefits posed by intentional and inadvertent introduction of exotic species into the United States, promising management methods, and the relationship between exotic and bioengineered species. Possible Impact on Legislation Could affect legislation regarding regulation of imported timber and potential associated non-indigenous pests; non-indigenous species that threaten native ecosystems. Project Director: Phyllis Windle Estimated Publication Date: Winter 1993 Requested by: U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries Hon. Walter B. Jones, Chainnan Hon. Robert W. Davis, Ranking Minority Member Subcommittee on Fisheries and Wildlife Conservation and the Environment Hon. Gerry E. Studds, Chainnan, Subcommittee on Water Resources Hon. Henry Nowak, Chainnan, Subcommittee on Oceanography and Great Lakes Hon. Hertel, Chainnan, Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chainnan Endorser Hon. Amo Houghton, TAB Member SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, RENEWABLE RESOURCES AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT The importance of renewable natural resources (i.e., soil, water, biota) in successful development is recognized increasingly by bilateral and multilateral assistance organizations. Lesser developed countries (LDCs), more so 100
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than developed nations, are heavily dependent on appropriate management and use of the resource base to sustain rapidly growing populations and to provide development opportunities. Over its 20-year history, OTA has examined various applications of science and technology to international development problems. These studies provide overview and analysis of efforts undertaken by numerous bilateral and multilateral organizations involved in LDC development activities. An in-depth examination of this resource could provide an easily accessed summary of OTA analyses and insight into key informational gaps that may hinder effective U.S. development assistance activities. Possible Impacts on Legislation: Likely to be used in development of Foreign Affairs Committee agenda for use in rewriting and reauthorization of the Foreign Assistance Act. May also be used in upcoming authorization of appropriations for the Agency for International Development, multilateral development banks, and other development assistance agencies or activities; allocation of responsibilities to Sustainable Development Commission or other body established to follow up on the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development. Project Director: Patricia Durana Estimated Publication Date: Fall 1993 Requested by: Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Hon. Claiborne Pell, Chairman MONITORING OF MANDATED VETERAN STUDIES U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs Hon. Dante B. Fascell, Chairman Studies of possible long-term health effects stemming from aspects of military service in Vietnam were mandated in 1979 (Public law 96-151) and 1981 (Public Law 97-72). Both laws require the approval of study protocols and monitoring of approved studies by PTA. The Centers for Disease Control were given responsibility for designing and carrying out these studies in 1983, and, with PTA approval, have been engaged in two studies the Vietnam Experience study and the Selected Cancers Study since then. CRC has stated and PT A concurred that a largescale Agent Orange study is not feasible. PT A will continue to monitor the two ongoing studies. A recent law (Public Law 99-272) contains a mandate for a study of women Vietnam veterans, and PTA is to function similarly in regard to this study. Thus far, no protocol has been approved. Similar responsibilities have been mandated to OTA by legislation (Public Law 98-160) related to "atomic veterans," military personnel exposed to atomic weapons testing. Requested by: Mandated by P.L. 96-151. Project Director: Hellen Gelband DRUG LABELING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES This study examines the adequacy of labeling information (including package inserts) provided by U.S.-based multinational pharmaceutical companies with the products they sell in four countries: Panama, Brazil, Kenya, and Thailand. Project Director: Hellen Gelband/Bob McDonough Estimated Publication Date: Winter 1992 101
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Requested by: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Edward M. Kennedy, Ranking Minority Member (now Chainnan) U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chainnan Subcommittee on Health and the Environment Hon. Henry Waxman, Chainnan GOVERNMENT POLICIES AND PHARMACEUTICAL R&D This project examines current trends in the costs of and returns to pharmaceutical R&D and the profitability of research-intensive pharmaceutical companies. Trends in the regulatory process, the market for new drugs, and tax policy affecting pharmaceutical R&D are also being analyzed. Project Director: Judy Wagner Estimated Publication Date: Spring 1993 Requested by: U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chainnan Subcommittee on Health and the Environment Hon. Henry A. Waxman, Chainnan TECHNOLOGY, INSURANCE AND THE HEALTH CARE SYSTEM Major issues to be addressed by this assessment include relationships among having health insurance, other factors in access and health, and health outcomes; and how a minimum benefit package for the uninsured might be fashioned from the perspectives of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. Project Director: Denise Dougherty Estimated Publication Date: Spring 1993 Associated Publications Does Health Insurance Make a Difference? (published 9/92) Competing Approaches to Health Care Reform: Impacts on Health Care Expenditures, Government Budgets, Employment and Individual Households Jan. 1993 Health Insurance: The Hawaiian Experience Jan. 1993 Medical Testing of Applicants for Individual Health Insurance: Reliability and Validity Test April 1993 Insurance Status and Health Care Utilization: Analysis of Four Data Bases and Cost Implications of Universal Coverage Sept. 1993 Lasers in Health Care: Case Study of Information about Effectiveness in Coverage, Reimbursement, and Benefit Design Issues Jan. 1994 Requested by: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Edward M. Kennedy, Chainnan Endorser Hon. Charles Grassley, TAB Member 102 U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chainnan
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FEDERAL RESPONSE TO AIDS: CONGRESSIONAL ISSUES The growing impact of AIDS on the Nation's health continues unabated, despite the optimism generated by the discovery and rapid approval of the first palliative drug against the AIDS virus and preliminary testing of possible vaccines. Preventing the spread of the AIDS virus is the primary strategy that is available, but is dependent on as yet unresolved differences on when testing for infection is appropriate and on how to alter the behavior of high-risk groups. The nation's, and even many other countries', social, economic, legal, and political systems have all been affected to some degree by the appearance of AIDS, and controversies over AIDS have begun to affect international relations and community among nations. Congress has responded with rapid increases in federal funds for scientific and medical research and for research and services in preventive education, and has begun to grapple with the difficult issues involved in financing AIDS-related health care. These diverse issues warrant a different approach from the usual OT A assessment, and this effort is oriented toward a monitoring and advisory capability within OT A to assist the increasing number of congressional committees that have AIDS on their agendas. Project Director: Bob McDonough Requesters: Technology Assessment Board, with encouragement from the House Appropriations Committee DEFENSIVE MEDICINE AND THE USE OF MEDICAL TECHNOLOGY This assessment will examine the degree to which physicians respond to the medical malpractice environment by altering their treatment strategies, and in particular their use of medical technologies. OTA will attempt to analyze defensive medicine's impact on health care delivery costs and the use of medical technology. Project Director: Judy Wagner Estimated Publication Date: Fall 1993 Requested by: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin Hatch, Ranking Minority Member Congressional Sunbelt Caucus U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Ways and Means Hon. Bill Archer, Ranking Minority Member Committee on Appropriations Subcommittee on Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies Hon Carl D. Pursell, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Michael Bilirakis, Co-Chainnan, Infant Mortality Task Force Hon. J. Roy Rowland, Co-Chainnan INTERNATIONAL DIFFERENCES IN HEALTH TECHNOLOGY, SERVICES AND ECONOMICS This assessment will identify how differences in organization, adoption, and use of medical technologies among industrialized countries contribute to differences in costs and health outcomes, and how differences in the structure of health financing, payment, and regulation among industrialized countries contribute to the different patterns of technology use among countries. Project Director: Hellen Gelband Estimated Publication Date: Fall 1993 103
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Requested by: U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Ways and Means Hon. Dan Rostenkowski, Chainnan Subcommittee on Health Hon. Pete Stark, Chaimian TUBERCULOSIS: RESEARCH, TECHNOLOGICAL AND POLICY ISSUES This study will analyze the clinical science and epidemiology of TB as well as policy issues of particular concern to the Congress: programs and funding for TB prevention and control within Federal, State, and local health agencies; the development of new TB drugs, drug delivery systems, and vaccines; and the effectiveness of policies and programs to achieve compliance with TB treatment regimens. Particular attention will be given to the overlap between the HIV and TB epidemics. Project Director: Michael Gluck Estimated Publication Date: Summer 1993 Requested by U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Health and the Environment Hon. Henry Waxman, Chainnan POLICY ISSUES IN THE PREVENTION AND TREATMENT OF OSTEOPOROSIS This report addresses questions about Federal funding for research on osteoporosis, technologies to detect osteoporosis, methods of prevention and treatment, professional education and training, and public education about osteoporosis. Project Director: Katie Maslow Estimated Publication Date: Spring 1993 Requested by Senate Special Committee on Aging Hon. David Pryor, Chainnan Hon. John Heinz, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Charles E. Grassley Hon. John Glenn House Select Committee on Aging Hon. Edward R. Roybal, Chaimian U.S. House of Representatives Select Committee on Aging Hon. Edward R. Roybal, Chainnan Subcommittee on Human Services Hon. Thomas J. Downey, Chainnan Hon. Olympia J. Snowe, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Benjamin A. Gilman Hon. Brian J. Donnelly Hon. Patricia F. Saiki PROSPECTS FOR HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT This study will describe the array of existing techniques, their limitations and potential uses, and the questions to which they are most appropriately and profitably applied. Additionally, an evaluation of the validity of newer techniques and how further refinement of these techniques is likely to enhance their usefulness to Federal and State policymakers will be made. Finally, the study will examine how technology assessment information is disseminated to medical care practitioners and consumers, and assess its ability to affect medical practice and health care utilization. Project Director: Elaine Power Estimated Publication Date: Spring 1994 104
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Requested by: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Edward M. Kennedy, Chainnan Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Ranking Minority Member Endorser Hon. Charles Grassley SYSTEMS AT RISK FROM CLIMATE CHANGE Most policy decisions made in the next several years about climate change will be made in the face of great uncertainty about the nature and magnitude of potential effects on natural and engineered systems. It will be a decade or more before the General Circulation Models (GCMs) offer the kind of temporal and regional detail desirable or the results of the massive research efforts underway both here and broad are available. In this assessment, OT A will attempt a strategic look at the interplay between the natural and engineered systems potentially at risk from climate change, the timing of information needed for planning for these systems, and how well-coordinated the Federal research program is to provide such answers. Project Director: Rosina Bierbaum Estimated publication date: Fall 1993 Requested by: Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Hon. Quentin N. Burdick, Chainnan Hon. John H. Chaffee, Ranking Minority Member Subcommittee on Environmental Protection Hon. Max Baucus, Chainnan Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation Hon. Ernest F. Hollings, Chainnan Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space Hon. Albert Gore, Jr., Chainnan U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space and Technology Hon. George Brown, Jr., Chainnan Hon. John F. Kerry, Vice Chaimian, National Ocean Policy Study MANAGING MATERIALS FROM NUCLEAR WARHEADS The dissolution of the former Soviet Union has accelerated U.S. and international efforts to eliminate thousands of nuclear weapons over the coming years. These efforts raise important issues as to how weapon dismantlement can be accomplished so that the nuclear materials and other hazardous and toxic materials in the warheads will be managed safely and with adequate protection to human health and the environment. This assessment will examine approaches being considered or planned by the U.S. and the nations of the former Soviet Union for removing the nuclear warheads from active stockpiles and for storing, converting or disposing of the plutonium, uranium, and other components. The study will analyze the health and environmental impacts of these approaches. The study will evaluate the role of U.S. and international agencies in carrying out or overseeing the programs, and will assess policy options for future use or disposal of the nuclear materials removed from the warheads. Project Director: Peter Johnson and Emilia Govan Estimated publication date: Fall 1993 105
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Requested by: Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Hon. John Glenn, Chaimian Hon. William V. Roth, Jr., Ranking Minority Member NEW APPROACHES TO ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION As U.S. environmental compliance costs have risen, Congress has come under increasing pressure to move away from traditional regulatory programs to newer and more economically efficient or effective approaches. These include: market-based mechanisms (such as the marketable permit program used to control acid rain) and information programs (such as the toxic release inventory under Superfund). This assessment would evaluate how well current command-and-control regulations have worked and the appropriateness of alternative policy instruments for the wide variety of pollution problems we face today. The theoretical advantages of alternative policy instruments have been discussed for years. The study would systematically evaluate, using a consistent set of Congressionally relevant criteria, the strengths and weaknesses of the full range of choices available: market-based approaches, information programs, technology-based standards, performance-based standards, enhanced monitoring and enforcement, etc. Unfortunately, little effort has been given to such pragmatic issues as implementation, monitoring, and enforcement. The assessment will examine new programs being tried by State and localities, such as the marketable permit program currently being tried to control ozone in Southern California. Other OECD countries have tried nontraditional approaches as well and no doubt will be a source of useful information. Special attention will be paid to how new advances in monitoring, modeling and control technology development have affected the feasibility and costs of the regulatory choices. Project Director: Robert Friedman Estimated publication date: Summer 1994 Requested by: Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Hon. Quentin Burdick, then Chainnan Hon. John H. Chafee, Ranking Minority Member TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADULT LITERACY How can technology offer new resources and create new opportunities to reach adult learners and improve productivity of learning? This study will identify ways to increase learning access in existing programs and in new ways, crossing the economic, cognitive, social, and institutional barriers that confront so many adults in need of improved literacy. Project Director: Linda Roberts Estimated publication date: Early 1993 Requested by: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Edward M. Kennedy, Chainnan Hon. Orrin G. Hatch 106 U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Education and Labor Hon. Augustus F. Hawkins, then Chainnan Hon. William F. Goodling, Ranking Minority Member Hon. William D. Ford, Member Hon. Thomas C. Sawyer, Member
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FEDERAL AVIATION RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY A robust Federal Aviation Administration R&D program, aimed at an efficient, safe, and economically vigorous air system in the next century, is a must, if the United States wishes to retain its current dominance in this high technology field. Such a program also provides an essential underpinning for ensuring fast, convenient, safe, and efficient intercity travel and freight shipments. This study will examine the R&D programs at FAA and will evaluate the adequacy of long-term research efforts that look to future needs of the airspace system, the ways new technologies are developed and brought on line, and the cost-effectiveness of the ways these activities are carried out. Project Director: Kevin Dopart Estimated publication date: Fall 1993 Requested by: U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space and Technology Hon. George Brown, Chainnan Hon. Robert S. Walker, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Tim Valentine, Member Hon. Tom Lewis, Member Endorsers Committee on Public Works and Transportation Subcommittee on Aviation Hon. James L. Oberstar, Chainnan, Hon. John D. Dingell, TAB Member INTERCI1Y BUS ACCESS FOR INDMDUALS WITH DISABILITIES Passage of the Americans With Disabilities Act, in July 1990, marked a significant change in the treatment of the approximately 7.3 million Americans with disabilities. At the time of passage, one important issue could not be satisfactorily resolved. Congress directed OTA, through the Act, to undertake a study of the access needs of individuals with disabilities to over-the-road bus service, and to determine the best methods for providing access, particularly for individuals who use wheelchairs. This study will play an integral role in the final regulations to be issued by the Department of Transportation. Project Director: Elizabeth Robinson Estimated publication date: Spring 1993 Requested by: Mandated under Public Law 101-336 VOCATIONAL EDUCATION ASSESSMENT INSTRUMENTS Vocational education is a crucial link in the school to work transition, and many students in American high schools participate in vocational education, taking one course or perhaps a whole curriculum. Congress is interested in learning whether assessment instruments can be developed and implemented to identify a student's mastery of "technical knowledge in broad technical fields." Most tests now used in connection with vocational education placement or certification are designed to measure mastery of specific coursework, rather than to measure wider, and possibly more transferable, skills. For example, an examination might focus on mastery of a course on repair of automotive engines, without attempting to measure general mechanical skills. This background paper will help OTA inform Congress about tests now in use, tests in development, and what steps would be involved in moving the country toward well107
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developed and certified tests that could meet the accountability needs that Congress has identified and students seek. Possible Impact on Legislation: Continuing revisions of the Perkins Act and numerous bills on school-to-work transition. Project Director: Nancy Carson Estimated publication date: Summer 1993 Requested by: U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Education and Labor Hon. William D. Ford, Chainnan FEDERAL TELECOMMUNICATIONS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY: TRANSFORMING THE DELIVERY OF GOVERNMENT SERVICES This study will assess the potential of telecommunication and computing technologies to enhance the productivity of Federal service delivery and improve the efficiency of government operations. It will focus on the application of telecommuting, telework, teleconferencing, and teletraining to the Federal civilian sector. The study will also examine the implications for Federal policies on telecommunications, information resources, government organization, computer networks and standards, energy/environmental management, and employee training. Project Director: Fred Wood Estimated publication date: Summer 1993 Requested by: Senate Committee on Government Affairs Hon. John Glenn, Chainnan THE 1992 WORLD ADMINISTRATIVE RADIO CONFERENCE: OUTCOMES AND IMPLICATIONS This assessment will examine the decisions agreed to at W ARC-92; analyze the impacts these decisions could have on the development of domestic radio communication policies, technologies, and services; evaluate the outcomes of the conference vis-a-vis the domestic WARC preparation process; and examine possible improvements in the WARC preparation process in light of changes in the structure and timing of future world radio conferences. Project Director: David Wye Estimated publication date: Summer 1993 Requested by: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Ernest F. Hollings, Chainnan U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chainnan INTERNATIONAL TELECOMMUNICATIONS NE1WORKS AND U.S. COMPETITIVENESS IN INFORMATION SERVICES DELIVERY This project will assess the delivery of services by U.S. corporations in European markets. It will include an analysis of the competitive position of U.S. telecommunication companies in Europe as well as an analysis of how communication affects the competitiveness of U.S. firms in the delivery of information-related services, 108
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e.g., banking and financial services, and data processing and computer support services. The relationship between domestic and international policy will be considered in the context of trade, finance and telecommunications. Project Director: Vary Coates Estimated publication date: Spring 1993 Requested by: Senate Committee on Finance Hon. Lloyd Bentsen, Chainnan Hon. John C. Danforth, Ranking Minority Member U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs Hon. Dante B. Fascell, Chainnan Hon. William S. Broomfield, Ranking Minority Member PRIVACY RIGHTS IN COMPUTERIZED MEDICAL INFORMATION This assessment will examine the technology making computerization of medical information possible; identify issues arising from computerization of such information; examine the state of the law and legislation dealing with concerns about privacy in medical information and their application in a networked environment; examine model systems to protect privacy in other similar areas; and determine whether new technologies may be used to protect privacy in computerized health care information. Possible Impact on Legislation: A variety of legislation to address health care costs has been introduced in the 102nd Congress. These bills involve computerization of health care records and use of electronic or "smart cards" to implement cost-saving measures. Among these are S. 1227 "Health America: Affordable Health Care for All Americans Act; H.R. 1300, "The Universal Health Care Act of 1991," and H.R. 3205, "The Health Insurance Coverage and Cost Containment Act of 1991." "The Medical and Health Insurance Information Reform Act of 1992," (S.2878, H.R. 5464) proposed by the Bush Administration, attempts to address the question of privacy in a networked computer system for medical information. Project Director: Paula J. Bruening Estimated Publication Date: Summer 1993 Requested by: Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Subcommittee on Federal Services, Posl Office and Civil Service Hon. David Pryor, Chainnan U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Government Operations Subcommittee on Government Information, Justice and Agriculture Hon. Bob Wise, Chainnan THE ELECTRONIC ENTERPRISE: OPPORTUNITIES FOR AMERICAN BUSINESS AND INDUSTRY The assessment will examine how the convergence of communications, information, and video technologies might affect business in the United States. By highlighting the consequences of the U.S. approach to technology deployment for competitiveness and economic performance, it will 1) describe the present state of communication, information, and video technologies; 2) assess the net potential value of these technologies for business and industry; 3) identify possible barriers to that potential; 4) compare what other countries do to 109
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assure the effective use of these technologies; and 5) identify what is needed if these technologies are to meet the Nation's economic and social goals. Project Director: Linda Garcia Estimated publication date: Winter 1993-94 Requested by: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation Hon. Ernest F. Hollings, Chainnan 110 U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space and Technology Hon. George E. Brown, Jr., Chainnan
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16.D. Other Services to the Congress 16.D.1 Testimony OT A receives frequent requests to testify at Congressional hearings; in fact, testimony is one of the main mechanisms for OT A to deliver information to Congress in a way that matches its specific needs and timing. The increased interest and need for OT A's work has been reflected in committee requests for testimony and briefings from OT A. During fiscal year 1992, the Director, Assistant Directors, Program Managers, and Project Directors testified a total of 31 times. Testimony was given both before House and Senate committees and subcommittees, on such topics as high speed rail and maglev, patents and biotechnology, the market perspective for electric vehicles, environmental cleanup of DOE weapons complex and the role of telecommunication technologies in education. Date 10/2/91 10/16/91 10/17/91 10/31/91 11/20/91 12/16/91 01/23/92 02/18/92 02/19/92 Committee Subcommittee on Government Information, Justice and Agriculture, House Committee on Government Operations Subcommittee on Transportation and Hazardous Materials, House Committee on Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Economic Stabilization, House Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs Subcommittee on Health and Environment, House Committee on Energy and Environment Subcommittee on Intellectual Property and Judicial Administration, House Committee on the Judiciary Subcommittee on Environment, House Committee on Science, Space and Economy Technology House Committee on Armed Services House Committee on Governmental Affairs Subcommittee on Elementary, Secondary and Vocational Education, House Committee on Education and Labor 111 Subject/Person Testifying Critical Connections: Communication for the Future (Linda Garcia) High Speed Rail and Maglev (Kevin Dopart and Edith Page) Nation's Long-Term Energy Future (Peter Blair) Health Care Technology and Issues of Health Systems Reform (Roger C. Herdman) Patents and Biotechnology (Mike Gough) Biotechnology in a Global (Margaret McLaughlin and Kevin O'Connor) The Future Defense Technology and Industrial Base (Jack Nunn) The Market Perspective for Electric Vehicles (Steve Plotkin) Testing in American Schools (Michael Feuer)
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Date 2/26/92 02/26/92 03/4/92 03/12/92 03/18/92 03/18/92 03/31/92 04/08/92 04/09/92 04/10/92 04/28/92 05/11/92 Committee Subcommittee on Department Operations, Research and Foreign Agriculture, House Committee on Agriculture Subcommittee on Environment, House Committee on Science, Space and Transportation Subcommittee on Technology and Competitiveness, House Committee on Science, Space and Technology Subcommittee on Government Information and Regulation, Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Subcommittee on Government Activities and Transportation, House Committee on Government Operations Subcommittee on Transportation, House Committee on Appropriations Subcommittee on Environment, Energy and Natural Resources, House Committee on Government Operations Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight, House Committee on Science, Space and Technology Joint Economic Committee Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation Subcommittee on Environment, Energy and Natural Resources, Subcommittee on Government Information, Justice and Agriculture, and Subcommittee on Government Activities and Transportation, House Committee on Government Operations Senate Committee on Government Affairs 112 Subiect/Person Testifying H.R. 3742, The Pesticide Safety Improvement Act of 1991; Risk Assessment Issues (Margaret McLaughlin) Environmental Cleanup of DOE Weapons Complex (Peter Johnson and Joan Harn) OTA's Report -Global Standards: Building Blocks for the Future (Linda Garcia) U.S. Manufacturing Competitiveness (Julie Gorte) Competitiveness in Large Commercial Aircraft, The Role of NASA (Julie Gorte) OTA's Report -New Ways: Tiltrotor Aircraft and Magnetically Levitate Vehicles (Edith Page) U.S. Forest Service's Timber Sale Program (Ross Gorte) Projecting Science and Engineering Requirements for the 1990's How Certain are the Numbers? (John Andelin) Defense Conversion (Katherine Gillman and Robert Atkinson) OTA's Report After the Cold War: Living with Lower Defense Spending (Kitty Gillman) Federal Energy Management (Robin Roy) Endangered Species (Allison Hess)
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05/14/92 05/20/92 05/21/92 06/22/92 07/01/92 07/29/92 09/15/92 09/15/92 09/18/92 09/22/92 Committee Subcommittee on Defense Industry and Technology, Senate Armed Services Committee Defense Policy Panel, House Committee on Armed Services Senate Committee on Government Affairs Subcommittee on Regulation, Business Opportunities and Energy, House Committee on Small Business Subcommittee on Legislation and National Security, House Committee on Government Operations Subcommittee on Communications, Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Subcommittee on Technology and Competitiveness, House Committee on Science, Space and Technology Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Senate Committee on Foreign Relations 113 Subject/Person Testifying Defense Build-Down on the Nation's Industrial and Technology Base (Jack Nunn) OTA Report -After the Cold War: Living with Lower Defense Spending (Kitty Gillman) Beyond the Earth Summit: Promoting Clean and Efficient Energy Technologies for the Developing World(Joy Dunkerley) and Samuel Baldwin) Forest Service Planning: Accommodating Uses, Producing Outputs, and Sustaining Ecosystems (Ross Gorte) Japanese Industrial Policy: The Case of Supercomputers (Julie Gorte) Role of Telecommunication Technologies in Education (Linda Roberts) OTA Report -Biology of Mental Disorders (Laura Hall) Competitiveness in Large Commercial Aircraft (Julie Gorte) Summary of OTA's Findings Relating to Framework Convention on Climate Change (John H. Gibbons) Relevance to the Treaty on Open Skies of OTA work on Cooperative Aerial Surveillance (Tom Karas)
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16.D.2.Formal Briefings OTA regularly receives inquiries from Congressional offices and committees regarding issues that are the subject of past or current OTA work. Responses by OTA are provided both orally or in brief written communications. The following is a listing of Congressional committees and a sampling of topics. COMMITIEES OF THE SENATE Appropriations Subcommittee on Transportation o FAA Technical Center in New Jersey o OTA's report Federally Funded Research Armed Services o Legislative initiatives to 1) ease defense conversion and 2) promote competitiveness Finance o Preventive Health Technologies Governmental Affairs o Energy Efficiency in the Federal Government Joint Economic o Legislation relevant to conversion of small defense firms to commercial production Labor and Human Resources o Oregon Medicaid Evaluation o Adolescent Health o Use of satellites for distance education o Role of telecommunications policy Energy and Natural Resources o Improving Automobile Fuel Economy COMMITIEES OF THE HOUSE Agriculture Subcommittee on Nutrition o Food Stamp employment and training program Appropriations o OTA Aviation R&D study o Interface between FAA R&D and DOD o Independent R&D funding o FAA management of large acquisitions Education and Labor Subcommittee on Elementary, Secondary and Vocational Education o Testing in American schools 114
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Energy and Commerce o Oregon Medicaid Evaluation o Improving automobile fuel economy Subcommittee on Energy and Power o Energy efficiency in the Federal Government Public Works and Transportation Subcommittee on Aviation o OTA Aviation R&D study o Satellite technology applications o International safety regulations Science, Space and Technology o Summary and policy options of Competing Economies report o OT A's background paper, NASA's Office of Space Science and Application o OT A's Complex Cleanup report o Technology assistance to raise environmental standards in Mexico and other Latin American Countries Subcommittee on Science o Community colleges: the state of information Subcommittee on Technology and Competitiveness o Coordination between FAA R&D and facilities and equipment (F&E) acquisition and implementation o Use of NASA expertise o Long-term aviation infrastructure planning Special Committee on Aging o Technology transfer programs at NIH of benefit to the pharmaceutical industry INFORMAL ORGANIZATIONS OF HOUSE MEMBERS Northeast-Midwest Congressional Coalition o OT A reports: After the Cold War and Redesigning Defense 115
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