Citation
Quarterly Report to the Technology Assessment Board, October 1 - December 31, 1987

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Title:
Quarterly Report to the Technology Assessment Board, October 1 - December 31, 1987
Series Title:
Quarterly Report Office of Technology Assessment
Creator:
Office of Technology Assessment
Publisher:
Office of Technology Assessment
Publication Date:
Language:
English
Physical Description:
105 pages.

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Subjects / Keywords:
Technology assessment ( LIV )
Genre:
federal government publication ( marcgt )
Spatial Coverage:
Washington, D.C.

Notes

General Note:
This is a quarterly report detailing the budget and progress of the Office of Technology Assessment.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of North Texas
Holding Location:
University of North Texas
Rights Management:
This item is a work of the U.S. federal government and not subject to copyright pursuant to 17 U.S.C. §105.

Aggregation Information

IUF:
University of Florida
OTA:
Office of Technology Assessment

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Quarterly Report to the Tech no logy Assessment Board Oct. 1-Dec. 31, 1987 .. -, #. CONGRES8 OF THE UNrrED STATES \ r Ollce of Tect.nalagy Anment '" r .1 Wlllf*lolDn. oc 206104025 ~'I~

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CONTENTS Page I. DIRECTOR'S STATEMENT. 1 II. COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS A. Summary of FY '87 Completions, Ongoing Work in FY '88, and New Starts Through December 31, 1987 3 B. Products Delivered During the Quarter 1. Formal Assessment Reports 4 2. Other: Technical Memoranda, Background Papers, Staff Papers or Letter Memoranda, Workshop Proceedings, and Committee Prints..................... 7 3. Testimony............................................. 9 C. Other Communication with Congress 1. Informal Discussions --Topics 10 D. Projects in Process as of 9/30/87 (including formal assessments, responses to TAB, and Committee requests) 1. Descriptions and Requester(s) 14 A. In Press as of 9/30/87 15 B. In Progress as of 9/30/87 21 E. New Assessments Approved During the Quarter 50 III. PUBLICATION BRIEFS OF FORMAL ASSESSMENTS DELIVERED IV. SELECTED NEWS CLIPS ON OTA PUBLICATIONS AND ACTIVITIES

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-1-DIRECTOR'S STATEMENT I. Since this was the last quarter of calendar 1987, I thought it would be appropriate to print here the opening part of my contribution to OTA's 1987 Report to Congress: One hundred forty five years ago there was discussion about closing the U.S. patent office because all major inventions and discoveries were behind us. Developments in science and technology in 1987 suggest that Lewis Thomas' claim--that the greatest discovery of this century is the discovery of the extent of human ignorance--is more accurate. To extend that thought, we've learned that many things earlier thought to lie beyond human understanding are knowable. The current flood of discovery, across all dimensions of size and space, is awesome! Dickens' description of 19th Century conditions "it was the best of times, it was the worst of times"--holds true today. In 1987 one could have entitled a weekly journal "The Best of Times," because major advances in science were achieved in high temperature superconductivity, cosmology, molecular and cellular biology, and other fields. It is from those advances that we will derive many new options for dealing with the physical wants, needs, and cares of people. It is also from such discoveries that we expand human thought and appreciation of the creation of which we are a part. Also during 1987 a signal event for humankind--deescalation of the nuclear arms race--marked a new direction for United States and the Soviet Union. This achievement was made possible in large part, by the extraordinary capabilities of satellite reconnaissance technology. Yet other events in 1987 reminded us that these may also be the worst of times. Discovery of mutant forms of the retrovirus that causes AIDS dashed already dim hopes for a ubiquitous tech-fix in treating AIDS victims. Significant loss of high altitude ozone, (the shield against cancer-causing ultra-violet solar radiation) shows how technology employed for human good (for example, air conditioning, refrigeration, insulation) can impose destructive side-effects. We are again and again reminded that, like political liberty, the price of technological liberty is eternal vigilance of its unwanted impacts. Our open approach to research, trade, and international development, has been so successful that a host of other nations are rapidly catching up with us. We find beneficial and harmful influences of science and technology deeply embedded in our personal, national, and global lives. They affect governance to a degree barely imagined in the past. Extraordinary demands are made of those in school preparing for the responsibilities of citizenship as well as upon those citizens charged with governance. OTA holds the sobering responsibility of helping citizens understand the events of science and the technological challenges and options before us.

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-2-II. During the quarter, the Technology Assessment Board appointed four new members to the Technology Assessment Advisory Council, replacing Claire T. Dedrick, Carl N. Hodges, Rachel McCulloch, and Lewis Thomas, who are retiring. The four distinguished new-comers are: Neil Harl, Charles F. Curtiss Distinguished Professor of Economics, Iowa State University; James C. Hunt, Chancellor of the Health Science Center, and Vice President for Health Affairs, University of Tennessee; Joshua Lederberg, President, Rockefeller University; and Sally Ride, Stanford University Center for International Security and Arms Control.

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-3 -II. COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS A. Summary of FY '87 Completions, Ongoing Work in FY '88, and New Starts Through December 31, 1987 FY '87 Products Released Total Formal Assessments 11 Other Special Reports 6 Report Supplements 0 Technical Memoranda 3 Background Papers, Case Studies, or Workshop Proceedings 6 Testimony 29 Staff Memos or Letter Memoranda 19 Administrative Documents 5 New Projects Approved by TAB Assessments 15 Other (Scope Changes; Special Responses Over 30K) 0 Projects in Process as of December 31, 1987 1. In Press Assessments Other (TM's, Background Papers, etc.) 3. In Progress Assessments Other 5 2 32 22 FY '88 Q!. fil. 2 1 3 9 6 2 2

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-4 -II. COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS A. Products Released During the Quarter 1. Formal Assessment Reports HOSPITAL AUTOMATION AND THE VA The Veterans' Administration (VA) started development of its Decentralized Hospital Computer Program (DHCP) in 1982. DHCP involves the automation of 172 hospitals, and includes both purchases of hardware and in-house development of software. It is expected by the VA to support automation of many hospital information needs, for example, registration and admission, patient scheduling, pharmacy, laboratory, etc. Concerns had been raised by the House Committee on Appropriations about the direction of the program and the VA's ability to manage a software development on this scale. The House Committee on Veterans' Affairs, while not sharing these concerns, joined in the request in exercise of its oversight responsibililties. This study, while focusing on the VA's medical computer systems, also included consideration of developments in the broader medical/health community of which VA is a part. The study looked at alternative computer system strategies, costs, and management issues. Requesters House Committee on Appropriations Hon. Jamie L. Whitten, Chairman (Published 10/87) Hon. Edward P. Boland, Chairman, Subcommittee on HUD-Independent Agencies House Committee on Veterans' Affairs Hon. G.V. (Sonny) Montgomery, Chairman Hon. Gerald B.H. Solomon, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Karen Bandy, 228-6771 NEW COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY: IMPLICATIONS FOR PRIVACY AND SECURITY -The Federal Government, the largest single user of information technology equipment, is facing major changes in the nature and uses of communications technology. New generations of products --such as local and wide area networks, software-controlled switching, digital communications integrated with computers, and satellite and fiber optic transmission --each bring much greater capability to Managers and users for accessing, manipulating, and transmitting information. In addition, the government, like the private sector is rapidly expanding the number of ways in which it uses information technology to accomplish its business.

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-5 -These new capabilities and uses challenge the integrity of the government's information system. This study evaluates two sets of these challenges that are essentially opposite sides of the same coin; the implications of increasingly advanced telecommunications systems for the privacy of workers; and the security and vulnerability of these systems to unathorized use. The study examines new and prospective capabilities of communications technology, assesses their impact on privacy and security, and analyzes how the combination of technical, administrative, and legal safeguards can cope with privacy and security implications. The Electronic Supervisor: New Technology, New Tensions, deals with the use of computer-based technologies to measure how fast or ow accurately employees work. Digital telephone systems, computerized work stations and other electronic technoloiges are giving employers new ways to supervise job performance and monitor employees' activities. Such systems are controversial because they generate such detailed information about the employees they monitor. This asessment explores a broad range of questions related to the use of new technology in the workplace and its effects on privacy, civil liberties, and quality of working life. An important future issue will be to ensure a fair balance between employers' rights to improve efficiency, productivity and security in their facililities, and employees' rights to prevent overly intrusive surveillance and data collection Requesters: House Committee on Government Operations Hon. Jack Brooks, Chairman House Committee on the Judiciary Hon. Don Edwards, Chairman, Subcommittee on Civil and Constitutional Rights Project Director: Charles Wilk, 228-6788 Vol. I: The Electronic Supervisor: New Technology, New Tensions (published 9/87) Vol.II: Defending Secrets, Sharing Data: New Locks and Keys for Electronic Information (published 10/87) STARPOWER: THE U.S. AND INTERNATIONAL QUEST FOR FUSION ENERGY -Thermonuclear fusion, the process powering stars and hydrogen bombs, offers the prospect of providing a source of energy having an effectively unlimited fuel supply. Fusion power might turn out to be both safer and more environmentally acceptable than nuclear fission. Great progress in harnessing fusion has been made to date, but a great deal of additional work is required. The Magnetic Fusion Energy Engineering Act of 1980 envisaged, but did not appropriate, 25% real increases in fusion research funding for each of the following two years, and a doubling of the overall effort

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-6 -within seven years. By FY 1986, however, the magnetic fusion budget had fallen, in real terms, to two-thirds of the peak value it reached in FY 1977. Shrinking funding profiles are forcing a major reanalysis of the Department of Energy's magnetic fusion research program. OTA examines the choices which need be made concerning the fusion program, including: 1) how resources might be re-allocated between fusion and other national programs intended to meet some of the same goals (long-term energy supply, stimulation of technology, international scientific prestige, etc.); and 2) how the fusion program could be structured, including the role of international cooperation, once the program's goals and priority have been decided. (Published 10/87) Summary published September 1987 Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, then Chairman Hon. Manuel Lujan, Jr., Ranking Minority Member Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Hon. James A. McClure, then Chairman, now Ranking Minority Member Hon. J. Bennett Johnston, then Ranking Minority Member, now Chairman Hon. Pete V. Domenici Hon. Wendell H. Ford Project Director: Gerald Epstein, 228-6269

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-7 -B. 2. Other: Technical Memoranda, Background Papers, Workshop Proceedings, Committee Prints, and Administrative Reports IDENTIFYING AND REGULATING CARCINOGENS -(Background Paper) The paper presents an overview of the policies and actions of each of the federal regulatory agencies responsible for protecting the public from exposure to chemical carcinogens. The lack of scientific data, the potential effects on the health of the public, and the potential economic consequences make the assessment of carcinogens and the development of corresponding regulations the subject of this intense debate. Project Director: Helen Gelband, 228-6590 STATE EDUCATIONAL TESTING PRACTICES -(Background Paper) -This report examines the use of tests within the American educational system as indicators of educational attainment. With survey data, this document examines two developing trends: 1) the number of states that have incorporated minimum competency testing into their requirements for passage into a higher grade or for graduation from high school; and, 2) testing for assessment -a method used for understanding comparative achievement by groups of students, and by schools or school districts. Project Director: Nancy Naismith, 228-6920 HEALTH CASE STUDY #38: NEONATAL INTENSIVE CARE FOR LOW BIRTHWEIGHT INFANTS: COSTS AND EFFECTIVENESS (Case Study) -An interim deliverable of the assessment, Healthy Children: Investing in the Future (now in press), which examines the effectiveness and costs of health care technologies in promoting and maintaining children's health, this case study explores the prospects for further major technological advances in neonatal intensive care, as well as the short-and long-term economic consequences of providing care for the smallest and sickest infants. This report also examines the fact that some infants may not have access to certain levels of hospital neonatal services for financial reasons, or because some hospitals do not want to lose patients to a competing institution, or because a majority of obstetricians and pediatricians do not understand the greatly improved prognoses for the tiniest newborns. Project Director: Polly Ehrenhaft, 228-6590 LIST OF PUBLICATIONS (Administrative Document) ASSESSMENT ACTIVITIES (Administrative Document)

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-8 -OTA Staff Papers or Letter Memoranda Date 10/05/87 10/26/87 11/12/87 11/13/87 12/08/87 12/10/87 Subject Bone Marrow Transplantation Using Unrelated Donors: Current Clinical Status and Policy Issues Presciption Drugs and Elderly Americans: Ambulatory Use and Approach to Coverage for Medicare Issues Relevant to NCIC 2000 Proposals Breast Cancer Screening for Medicare Beneficiaries: Effectiveness, Costs to Medicare, and Medical Resources Required Adverse Effects of Radioactive Effluent Discharged Introduced into Irish Sea from Reprocessing Plants An Analysis of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete Ozone Layer Related OTA Work Ongoing and completed work in the Health Program Ongoing and completed work in the Health Program Background work in the Communications and Information Program Ongoing and completed work in the Health Program Background work in the Oceans and Environment Program Ongoing and completed work in the Oceans and Environment Program

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9 -II. B. 3. Testimony Date 10/09/87 10/20/87 10/21/87 10/28/87 11/02/87 11/03/87 11/05/87 11/18/87 12/10/87 Committee/Chairman Subcommittee on Regulation and Business Opportunities of the House Committee on Small Business Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight of the House Committee on Public Works and Transportation Subcommmittee on Water Resources, Transportation and Infrastructure of the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Subcommittee on Energy Research and Development; Subcommittee on International Scientific Cooperation of the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology Special Committee on Aging U.S. Senate Subcommittee on Health of the House Committee on Ways and Means Subcommittee on Hazardous Wastes and Toxic Substances of the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Subcommittee on Superfund and Environmental Oversight of the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Subject/Person Testifying AIDS Antibody Testing (Lawrence Miike) Airline Maintenance Practices (Nancy C. Naismith) Construction and Materials R&D for Public Works (A. Jenifer Robison) Fusion Energy: When and How? (Gerald L. Epstein) Payment for Physician Services: Strategies for Medicare (Jane Sisk) Mammography Screening for Medicare (Dr. Roger Herdman) Federal Oversight of Biotechnology Regulation (Val Giddings) Aviation Safety in a Competitive Environment (Edith Page) Superfund (Joel Hirschhorn)

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10 -II. c. Other Communication with Congress 1. Informal Discussions --Topics In addition to briefings and presentations, informal discussions take place continually, as requested by Members and staff. OTA staff members give updates on ongoing work and provide information that Members and Committees may need relative to legislation pending or under consideration or for hearings and related testimony. Energy and Materials Program Advanced Materials (Composites) Alcohol Fuels Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Coal Mining Coal Slurry Pipelines Cogeneration Competitiveness of Metals Industry Copper Industry Clean Coal Technologies Electric Power Electric Power Industry Energy Conservation Energy Efficient Appliances Fusion Groundwater Contamination Infrastructure Magler Transportation Mineral Leasing New Electric Power Technologies Nuclear Reactors Nuclear Regulation R&D Budgets and Incentives Solar Energy Superconductivity U.S. Energy Supply and Demand Industry, Technology and Employment Program. Displaced Homemakers Displaced Workers Japanese Industry and International Trade International Competitiveness International Trade of U.S. Manufacturing Automation Superconductivity Super fund Transfer of Technology to Small Firms Technology Policy Use of Technology to Small Firms

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11 -International Security and CotDJDerce Program A.F. Titan Purchase Defense Technology Base Export Administration NATO Nuclear Power Seismic Report Space Transportation Food and Renewable Resources Program African Development Foundation Agriculture Technologies and Groundwater Contamination Biological Diversity Biotechnology Farm Credit Administration Study Food Stamp Study Micro-Enterprise Bill Pesticide Residues in Food Pesticide Residues in Grain Entering U.S. Reauthorization of Foreign Assistance Act Reclamation Technology for Cellulose and Materials Substainable Agriculture U.S. Participation in International Agricultural Research Centers WIC Program Study Health Program Accuracy of Laboratory Tests Agent Orange AIDS Education Atomic Vets Bone Marrow Transplantation Carcinogen Regulations Cataract Surgery Chronic Illness in Children Cost of Drug Research and Development Disability Technology Disease Prevention Drug Labeling in Developing Countries Effectiveness/Cost Effectiveness of Prenatal Care Mammography Medicare Coverage of Optometry Medicare Prescription Drug Benefits NICU Costs Nurse Practitioners Occupational Disease OSHA Health and Safety Standards Outpatient Drug Benefits Physician Distribution Prescription Drugs and the Elderly Prospective Payment Review Commission Quality Information for Consumers Rural Health Care Underground Atomic Bomb Testing Unorthodox Cancer Treatments Women Veterans

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-12 -Biological Applications Program Animal Experimentation Agricultural Biotechnology Alzheimer's Disease Biotechnology Biotechnology Policy Biotechnology Policy and International Competitiveness Biomedical Research Biomedical Research Funding Ethics, Mapping and Sequencing the Genome Export and Trade Issues in Biotechnology Genetic Testing Genome Projects Human Genome Therapy Infertility Treatments Institutional Protocols for Making Decisions about Life-Sustaining Treatment -Progress Report Intellectual Property and Patents Neuroscience Neurotoxicity Public Perceptions of Biotechnology Reproductive Technologies Veterans' Affairs Co111111.unications and Information Technologies Program Automated Stock Exchange CD/ROM Technology Communication Systems Depository Library Program Digital Taping Federal Government Information Dissemination Future of GPO Future of NTIA GPO Electronic Dissemination International Information Dissemination Superconductors Test of VA Computers Hardware Veterans Administration Hospital Computers Oceans and Environment Program Artie Oil Production Book Preservation Clean Water Act Climate Change The Greenhouse Effect Drug Interdiction Estuarine and Coastal Water Legislation High-level Radioactive Waste Low Level Radioactive Waste ~arine Pollution Monitored Retrievable Storage Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer Ocean Incineration Legislation Oceanographic Ships Ozone Nonattainment: Acid Rain

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13 -Science, Education and Transportation Program Air Safety Appropriations to and Spending by Science and Engineering Education Directorate, NSF Bilingual Education Legislation and the Use of Technology Community Colleges Distance Learning Effects Education of Scientists and Engineers Educational Technology Assessment Educational Software Quality Fraud and Misconduct in Scientific Research Hazardous Materials Transportation High Speed Rail High Tech Research and Florida's Share of Federal R&D Allocations NIH Misconduct Investigation Procedures NSF Peer Review OTA Request Process OTA Science Policy Research Colleges and Productive Sites for Preparing Future Scientists and Engineers Science Teachers Teacher Training for Educational Technology Technology Resources in Rural School Districts Women and Minorities in Science

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ASSESSMENTS IN PROGRESS, December 31 1987: ** BUDGET AND SCHEDULE 1988 JAN FEil MAR APR MAY JUN .J!lL AlJG SEP OCT NOV ENERGY, MATERIALS, AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY Energy and Materials 1119 Competitlveness of the Domestic Copper Industry _________________ o 1121 Technological Risks and Opportunlties for Future U.S. Energy Supply and Demand _______________ 0 0 1122 Increased Competition in Electric Power Industry _______________________________________ 0 1123 High-temperature Superconductors: Research, Development, Applications (in parallel w/ 1223 helow) ______________ 1124 Oil Production technologies and the Artie National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) ____________ o Industry, Technology, and Employment $Thousands m:c TAil OTA 324 294 353 392 500 500 417 417 252 l 71 1213 1214 1223 Technology, Innovation, and U.S. Trade ______________________________________________ 0 850 850 Superfund Implementation _______________ ~------~-----------------High Temperature Superconductors: Commercialization (in parallel w/1123 above) ____ o 0 450 366 280 284 International Security and Co111111erce (January 1312 Advanced Space Transportation Technologies _____________________________________ 1989) 1,035 l ,035 (March 1313 Maintaining the Defense Technology Base _______________________________________ 1989) 887 887 HEALTH AND LIFE SCIENCES Food and Renewable Resources % -9.2 + l I .o -32.4 -18.6 + 1.5 2111 2112 2113 African Development Foundation_--,-----,---,----,--------.,----c--o 306.5 305.5 .3 2203 2219 2220 2221 2222 2223 2311 2313 2314 Technology and Public Policy to Enhance Grain Quality in International Trade ____________ o *Technologies to Detect Pesticide Residues in Food o Health Monitoring of Mandated Veteran Studies----------------------------------(indeterminate) Unorthodox Cancer Treatment: Information, Evaluation, and Policy __________________ o The Quality of Medical Care: Information for Consumers _______________ o Diagnostic Medical Tests: Impact on Public and Private Policy Issues ________ o Drug Labeling in Developing Countries (Phase I) ______________________ o Federal Response to AID's: Congressional Issues _________________________________ (indeterminate) Biological Applications New Developments in Biotechnology __________________________________ o Mapping Our Genes _______________________________ o Methods for Locating and Arranging Health & Long-Term Care Services For Persons with Dementia _________________ o SCIENCE, INFORMATION, AND NATURAL RESOURCES Connnunication and Information Technologies 3115 3116 3117 3119 3212 3213 3214 3307 3308 3309 Technology, Public Policy, and the Changing Nature of Federal Information Dissemination (Feb '88) Communications Systems for An Information Age ____________________________________ o Science, Technology, and the Constitution in the Information Age _________ o Copyright and Audio Taping~-----------------------------------------------o Oceans and Environment Program New Clean Air Act o ---,-----,,--,-----------------------------Book Preservation Technologies __________________________ o *Municipal Solid Waste Management ___________________________________________ (March l 989) Science, Education, and Transportation Sustaining the National Technological llase: Education and Employment of Scientists and Engineers (Feh.88) Educational Technology: An Assessment of Practice and Potential _________ o Safety in the Commercial Aviation and Motor Carrier Industries ______________________ o ** TAB App. = TAil approved budget estimates; OTA Proj. = OTA projf'cted hmlget as of 12/31/87; % Var. Percent variance of projected cost 395 130 88 412 496 514 207 291 776. 5 198 310 554 690 390 335 545 190 543 524 558 699 419 130 47 365 462 440 207 291 888 221 310 597 690 37 5 335 545 190 543 496 558 699 + 6.2 -N/A--11 .4 -6.9 -14.3 +14.3 + l I. 5 + 7.8 -3.8 -5.3 Approved by TAB (October 27, 1987) -----~o = current projected
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14 -DESCRIPTIONS AND REQUESTERS FOR CURRENT OTA ASSESSMENTS AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1987

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-15 -II. D. Descriptions and Requesters of Projects A. IN PRESS AS OF 12/31/87 EFFECTS OF TECHNOLOGY ON THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC TRANSITION --New technologies, growing international competition in markets once dominated by U.S. suppliers, and changes in the cost and availability of oil and other critical resources may lead to a fundamental change in the structure of the U.S. economy. These changes could also change the utility of major classes of public policy. The analysis conducted for this project describes ways the national economy may change during the next two decades, explores the ways these changes may alter prospects for employment and profitable investment in different major classes of economic activities, describes how the changes may alter critical aspects of the quality of life in America, and examines the implications of these changes for national policy. The analysis was constructed around seven tightly integrated projects. Six of these were designed to explore plausible ways the economy may move to meet basic market requirements during the next two decades and the nature of the employment and investment opportunities created. The areas covered include: the health industries, agriculture and food processing, construction, transportation and communication, education, and "leisure-time" industries. At least two possibilities were considered in each case: (1) an extrapolation of current trends, and (2) an analysis of ways the market could be met assuming that new technologies were introduced with no market "imperfections" except those explicitly introduced where markets clearly are inadequate (e.g., regulations designed to protect the environme,1t). This analysis of "potentials" is not a forecast in the conventional sense but is designed to illuminate the range of possible impacts of new technologies. When the "potential" analysis differs significantly from projections based on trends, the work will provide a convenient basis for determining whether or not the divergence results from poorly designed federal programs. A separate project was examining basic manufacturing and service industries not covered elsewhere. Each of these projects resulted in a separate publication and an evaluation of specific policy problems identified in the sectors covered. The components are combined systematically using a simple accounting procedure developed for the project. Where relevant, the results were compared with major macroeconomic models developed elsewhere. The integrated analysis will be used to examine major national policy issues affecting capital formation, employment, international competition, investments in infrastructure, research and development priorities, and other areas of major national interest.

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16 -Interim Deliverables: A Review of U.S. Competitiveness in Agricultural Trade (Technical Memorandum) --(Requester: Hon. Roger Jepsen, then Chairman, Joint Economic Committee) (Published October 1986) Technology, Trade, and the U.S. Residential Construction Industry (Special Report) (Published September 1986) Leisure Industries (Technical Memorandum) --Contact Henry Kelly, 6-3960. U.S. Textile Industry: Report) (Published A Revolution 1n Progress (Special April 1986) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Bob Packwood, then Chairman, still member Hon. Ernest Hollings, then Ranking Minority Member, now Chairman Hon. Larry Pressler, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Business, Trade, and Tourism Senate Committee on the Budget Hon. Pete V. Domenici, then Chairman, now Ranking Minority Member Hon. Lawton Chiles, then Ranking Minority Member, now Chairman House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman House Committee on Post Office and Civil Service Hon. William D. Ford, Chairman House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, then Chairman House Committee on Education a11d Labor Hon. Carl D. Perkins (deceased), then Chairman House Committee on the Judiciary Hon. Peter W. Rodino, Chairman House Committee on Public Works and Transportation Hon. James J. Howard, Chairman House Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs Hon. Fernand J. St Germain, Chairman Hon. Chalmers P. Wylie, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Henry Kelly,228-6300 ADVANCED MATERIALS BY DESIGN --Development and use of advanced materials such as high performance ceramics and polymer composites promise dramatic changes in many aspects of our economy. The unique properties and design features of these materials provide the opportunity for greatly increased performance in many products in use today, enhanced manufacturing productivity, and new types of products. Composites used as structural members in aircraft and ceramics in machine tool bits already have demonstrated some of these large performance gains. The promise of these materials has caused other nations to embark on major development programs. This nation's ability to maintain Long term economic srowth and remain

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17 -compet1t1ve will depend to a large extent on how well we take advantage of the opportunities presented by these materials. To do so, however, requires that many technical problems and non-technical barriers be overcome. This assessment defines the many opportun1t1es for high technology ceramics and polymer composites over the next 15 to 25 years. It determines the principal technical and related problems that need to be overcome if timely expansion of the commercial use of these materials is to take place. Finally, the study analyzes the broad implications of these high technology materials to future U.S. economic growth and competitiveness. Interim Deliverable: Future Opportunities for Advanced Materials {Technical Memorandum) {Published September 1986) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. John C. Danforth, then Chairman, now Ranking Minority Member Hon. Ernest F. Hollings, then Ranking Minority Member, now Chairman Hon. Slade Gorton, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, then Chairman Hon, Manuel Lujan, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Dan Glickman, then Chairman, still member, and Hon. Tom Lewis, Ranking MinoLity Member, Subcommittee on Transportation, Aviation, and Materials Project Director: Greg Eyring, 228-6270 AFRICAN AGRICULTURE; ON BEING RESOURCEFUL WITH FEW RESOURCES --Most people in developing countries are subsistence farmers who cannot obtain or afford the expensive fertilizers and pesticides upon which the high-yield {Green Revolution) technologies are based. Thus, as populations grow and fuel prices rise, low-resource agricultural technologies are receiving increased attention from donors and researchers. For example, international donors such as the Peace Corps and the World Bank are giving high priority to research and development projects that enhance rather than replace low-resource, traditional farming methods. This is particularly true for programs in Africa where subsistence farmers hold the key to increasing food production and where the continuing need for massive food aid demonstrates the failure of many past agricultural, development assistance and resource protection policies.

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-18 -This OTA assessment builds upon the results of a previous Technical Memorandum, Africa Tomorrow: Issues in Technology, Agriculture, and U.S. Foreign Aid. By examining low-resource agricultural technologies world-wide, OTA hopes to help Congress evaluate programs and formulate policies related to both U.S. agriculture and foreign policy. This assessment: 1) determines which of these technologies can increase African food production 1n socio-economically and environmentally sustainable ways; 2) identifies the U.S. role in technology development and transfer; 3) assesses actual and potential benefits to the U.S. from participation in international agricultural research on low-resource methods; and 4) evaluates certain aspects of the Sahel Development Program as a case study in U.S. public and private assistance to Africa. Interim Deliverable: Continuing the Commitment: Sahel Development Program (Special Report; published 8/86) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Technology Assessment Board Hon. Morris K. Udall, then Vice Chai.rman, now Chairman Hon. Edward M. Kennedy Hon. Orrin G. Hatch Hon. Cooper Evans, then U.S. House of Representative Hon. Claiborne Pell House Committee on Agriculture Hon. E. (Kika) de la Garza, Chairman House Committee on Foreign Affairs Hon. Dante B. Fascell, Chairman (endorsement) House Committee on Scien~e, Space, and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, then Chairman Hon. James H. Scheuer, Chairman, Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Agriculture Research, and Environment House Select Committee on Hunger Hon. Mickey Leland, Chairman Hon. Marge Roukema, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Phyllis Windle, 228-6633 HEALTHY CHILDREN: INVESTING IN THE FUTURE --This project brings together the current evidence on the effectiveness and costs of health care technologies in promoting and maintaining children's health. It examines current patterns of availability of these technologies and barriers to their appropriate use. The role of Federal policies, including Medicaid, Maternal and Child Health, and the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) program, in providing access to preventive and therapeutic technologies is also examined.

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19 A range of illness prevention and therapeutic technologies 1s available at every phase of childhood and the prenatal period. Some, applied in the prenatal period, can reduce the risk of neonatal mortality and morbidity; others, applied later in the child's life, may prevent illnesses that typically manifest themselves in adulthood. New medical technology has also transformed formerly fatal childhood diseases into serious chronic illnesses, whose victims remain technology-dependent for extended periods of time. It is often feasible for these children to be cared for in the home, provided the financial and supportive resources are available. The availability of these life saving technologies raises questions about the private and public financing and organization of services for this small but growing population. This project emphasizes study of illness prevention technologies, including non-medical technologies such as promotion of safe behavior (e.g., seat-belt use) and improved nutrition. Among the preventive technologies considered are prenatal screening, monitoring, and care; infant screening; immunizations; and earlychildhood screening. Therapeutic technologies include neo-natal intensive care and pediatric home care for technology-dependent children. Interim Deliverables: Technology De7endent Children (Technical Memorandum) (Published S 87) Neonatal Intensive Care Units (Case Study) (Dec. 1987) Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on En~rgy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Hon. Henry A. Waxman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment Hon. Edward R. Madigan, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment Hon. Thomas J. Tauke Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, then Chairman, now Ranking Minority Member Senate Committee on Finance Hon. Bob Packwood, then Chairman, now Ranking Minority Member Hon. Russell B. Long, then Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Judith Wagner, 228-6590 INFERTILITY PREVENTION AND TREATMENT -Infertility affects one in six American couples. About one million of these couples seek the help of doctors and infertility clinics each year. The health-care costs of infertility have been estimated to be at least $200 million annually and may be closer to $1 billion, virtually all from the private sector. A majority of infertile adults can be effectively treated with newly developed microsurgical techniques and/or fertility drugs. In addition, artificial insemination results 1n

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20 -the birth of some 10,000-20,000 children each year in the U.S. Since 1978, other new techniques of conception have brought hope to childless couples. Societal custom, law, and regulation are largely unequipped to handle the rapidly changing, novel social and biological opportunities and relationships offered by innovative reproductive technologies. This assessment covers six principal areas: (1) Technologies to prevent infertility. The assessment describes causes of infertility and approaches to prevention. Existing and anticipated technologies to prevent infertility are addressed. (2) Technologies to diagnose infertility. The report describes the diagnostic technologies and techniques used to identify the existence and cause of an individual's infertility. Anticipated advances in infertility diagnostics is also discussed. (3) Technologies to treat infertility, (e.g., therapeutic drugs, microsurgery, artificial insemination, in vitro fertilization, embryo transfer, surrogate motherhood, freezing of germ cells and embryos), as well as ancillary reproductive technologies (e.g., sex-selection). (4) In addition, the report discusses the effect of Federal policy on the quality and/or availability of infertility therapies in the United States. (5) Veterans' issues. (6) Other issues. State laws governing a child's legitimacy, custody, inheritance rights, support, and adoption is addressed insofar as some types of infertility treatment raise special issues. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs Hon. Frank Murkowski, then Chairman, now Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Government Operations Hon. Ted Weiss, Chairman, Subcommittee on Intergovernmental Relations and Human Resources Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Hon. Albert Gore, Jr., then Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on the Civil Service, Post Office and General Service Project Director: Gary Ellis, 228-6681

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-21 B. IN PROGRESS AS OF 12/31/87 Energy, Materials, and International Security Division COMPETITIVENESS OF THE DOMESTIC COPPER INDUSTRY --Copper historically has been an important part of the domestic mineral industry and has contributed significantly to the economy, particularly in the Western United States. In recent years, however, a number of factors have combined to reduce the demand for domestic copper in favor of foreign sources of supply. The domestic costs of copper mining, smelting, and refining have risen at a time when there is a surplus in international copper supplies and a decrease in demand due to materials substitution. When combined with the effects of a strong dollar and foreign industry subsidization, plus relatively low domestic ore grades, these cost increases and market conditions have significantly reduced the ability of the domestic industry to compete with copper imports. As a result, domestic copper production is now at about one-half of U.S. capacity. In order to identify the technical and economic issues related to the decline in competitiveness of the domestic copper industry, and to develop constructive alternatives to help revitalize the industry, OTA will: 1) assess the status of copper markets, including recent supply and demand trends and the extent to which they have been affected by substitutions; 2) identify possible future market trends, including the potential for further substitutions and/or new markets; 3) describe the technological and management state-of-the-art in copper mining, smelting, and refining (including byprvduct utilization) and the cost shares for each sector; 4) assess, in context of future market trends, advanced technologies and managerial strategies with the potential for reducing costs in each sector; and S) identify options that could be implemented by government or private entities to revitalize the copper industry. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Technology Assessment Board Hon. Morris K. Udall, then Vice Chairman, now Chairman Hon. Orrin G. Hatch Congressional Copper Caucus Hon. Barry M. Goldwater, then U.S. Senate Hon. Jim Kolbe, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Max Baucus, U.S. Senate Hon. Carl Levin, U.S. Senate Hon. Chic Hecht, U.S. Senate Hon. Barbara F. Vucanovich, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Manuel Lujan, Jr., U.S. House of Representatives Hon. John McCain, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Howard C. Nielson, U.S. House of Representatives Project Director: Jenifer Robison, 228-6279 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: Feb~uary 1988

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22 -TECHNOLOGICAL RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR FUTURE U.S. ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND Congress is now being presented with a series of energy demand and supply forecasts that are radically different from those of just a few years ago. A common theme includes greatly moderated oil prices into the early 1990's followed by a possible return to OPEC dominance of oil markets, rising oil prices, and greatly expanded U.S. oil imports by the late 1990's. This study will evaluate current views of the U.S. future energy outlook, identify key technical uncertainties and risks that affect the validity of these views, and identify and evaluate energy policy options for dealing with these uncertainties and risks. In the first phase of the study, OTA evaluated the implications for U.S. energy policy of volatile oil prices, emphasizing the effects of low prices on domestic oil production. In the second phase, aimed at overall U.S. energy supply and demand, OTA will first examine historic changes in U.S. energy supply and demand and the ability of previous forecasts to anticipate these changes. Next, the study will describe current forecasts for the next 15-25 years and identify their underlying assumptions. The study will then identify and evaluate the primary sources of technical uncertainties in the forecasts. The sources of technical uncertainty include: economic growth rates and patterns; new energy supply, conservation, and end use technologies; geologic uncertainties about available oil and gas resources; consumer reactions to lower energy prices, and other apsects of public and industry behavior; and methodological problems in forecasting. (The final report will discuss but not primarily analyze nontechnical sources of uncertainty, primarily political uncertainty.) Finally, the study will identify and evaluate policy options that would add flexibility to the energy system, i.e., to increase the system's ability to adapt to the range of futures consistent with these uncertainties. Interim Deliverable: U.S. Oil Production: The Impact of Low Oil Prices (special report) (published September 1987; summary published July 1987) Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chairman Hon. Phillip R. Sharp, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Fossil and Synthetic Fuels House Committee on Government Operations Hon. Jack Brooks, Chairman Project Director: Steve Plotkin, 228-6275 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: August 1988

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-23 -INCREASED COMPETITION IN THE ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY -Many economists, regulators, policymakers, and others are promoting increased competition in the U.S. electric power industry as a means of improving the economic efficiency of electricity supply. In this context increased competition generally refers to expanding the choices for electricity supply available to utilities and, in some proposals, customers. The recent trend toward increased competition in the industry is typified by a number of proposals by utilities and other organizations to construct generating facilities and provide other energy supply and conservation services outside the regulatory purview of local public utility commissions, as well as by implementation of the Public Utilities Regulatory Policies Act (PURPA) of 1978. PURPA, in particular, has prompted rapid growth of nonutility cogeneration and small power generation facilities in some States. Accompanying the trend toward increased competition are pressures on utilities to provide "wheeling" services for other utilities, retail customers, and non-utility power generators. Wheeling is a utility's provision of power transmission service for a third party, i.e., another utility or a nonutility customer. Proponents of increased competition view mechanisms for increasing access to transmission services as essential to achieving a more efficient electric power supply system. Opponents to increased transmission access argue that the present voluntary system of permitting access on a case-by-case basis has worked well and that the extreme case of mandatory transmission access could compromise system reliability as well as, in effect, eliminate a utility's territorial franchise without relieving it of the obligation to serve all customers in its service territory. Thus, by allowing some custvmers to "shop around" and purchase power from sources other than the local utility, the fixed costs of generating capacity planned and installed to serve all customers would be borne by the remaining "captive" customers. A number of OTA assessments have focused on some of the issues associated with increased competition in the power industry. They have addressed the future of nuclear power, cogeneration, and new electric power generating technologies. This assessment responds to Congressional requests that OTA focus on the technological factors constraining as well as encouraging competition in the electric power industry. This assessment will focus on the wheeling issue outlined above as well as a number of other issues, including the impact of dispersed generation on system operation, control, and planning. Also of concern are the associated regulatory, environmental, and economic questions. Requesters: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Hon, Norman r. Lent, Ranking Minority ~ember Project Director: Alan Crane, 228-6427 Project Delivery Date to TAB: November 1988

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-24 -HIGH TEMPERATURE SUPERCONDUCTORS: RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT, AND APPLICATION/COMMERCIALIZATION The availability of high-temperature superconducting materials offers potential for many fundamentally new technological and market opportunities in computers, transportation, electric power, and other applications. Since early 1987, technical advances have been announced literally weekly and progress over the next two decades is likely to continue to be rapid on both scientific and commercial fronts. This assessment will address (1) the research and development needs for these new materials; (2) the issues for commercializing these materials as affected by Federal institutions and interactions with the private sector and; (3) the coming international competition to develop, manufacture, and market products stemming from the recent discoveries. In the first phase of this project, OTA will deliver a set of findings on the Federal role in commercialization. In parallel with the effort on commercialization issues, OTA staff will evaluate the U.S. research and development agenda for these materials, the technical and economic barriers facing potential applications, and the processing/manufacturing requirements for delivering products using these materials. Requesters: Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Hon. J. Bennett Johnston, Chairman Hon. James A. McClure, Ranking Minority Member Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Hon. John Glenn, Chairman House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Hon. Robert A. Roe, Chairman Hon. Manuel Lujan, Jr., Ranking Republican Member Project Directors: John Alic, 228-6345, and Greg Eyring, 228-6270 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: Phase I: March 1988; Phase II-Nov. 1988 OIL PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGIES AND THE ARTIC NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE -Congress has been asked to decide the future development status of the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), an area that combines high wilderness and wildlife values with significant prospects for the discovery of supergiant oilfields. Alternative choices for ANWR include wilderness status and opening the Refuge to full scale oil and gas exploration and development at the extremes, and a range of intermediate strategies 1n between. A key argument for allowing ANWR to be opened to leasing is that the successful discovery and development of petroleum in the Refuge can serve to mitigate the anticipated decline in total Alaskan oil production and maintaining oil flow through the TransAlaskan Pipeline (TAPS). This study will examine recent projections of future Alaskan oil production, to the extent possible evaluate the accuracy of these estimates, and evaluate the potential for shifts in future production rates with technology development and changing economic c0nditions and regulatory requirements. As

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25 part of this evaluation, OTA will examine the evolution of technology for Arctic onshore and offshore oil exploration, development, production, and transportation over the past 15 years and project how the state of the art might evolve over the next several decades. Such changes might in turn change the economics and technical feasibility of oil production, altering the production potential of oilfields feeding into TAPS. Requesters Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Hon. J. Bennett Johnston, Chairman House Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries Hon. Walter B. Jones, Chairman Project Director: Steve Plotkin, 228-6275 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: May 1988 TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION, AND U.S. TRADE -The international diffusion of technology has meant that competition from a growing number of countries, in a widening array of products, has cut into the market share of U.S. manufacturers. One result is an unprecedentedly large trade deficit, expected to top $160 billion in 1986. Many factors account for the edge that foreign manufacturers have won in a growing number of products. The rapid spread of technology--in many cases, technology developed in America--is partly a result of 1) American overseas investments and cooperative agreements, 2) the emphasis placed on the development of commercial technologies by foreign governments and businesses, and 3) the reluctance of some U.S. manufacturers to invest in new product development and com.nercialization. Other factors contribute to the successful penetration of U.S. markets. They include foreign industrial policies, differences in capital costs and availability, and the emphasis foreign manufacturers place on agressive marketing and distribution, domestic manufacturing, long-term gains rather than short-term financial performance, and the effective use of human capital. High American wages, while clearly a factor, reflect our high standard of living, which few would be willing to compromise in order to compete with offshore production. The study will examine how changes in the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing industries affect the ability of the U.S. economy to create new jobs in various sectors. The study will also assess how technology, coupled with strategic responses by U.S. firms, could reverse the erosion of our market shares. Possible policy responses of the U.S. government will be identified, with particular emphasis on policies that could stimulate American producers to invest in technologies for development and commercialization of new products, policies that could aid industrial and technological development in industrializing nations without unduly harming American manufacturers, and trade policies that go beyond traditional "free trade or protection" arguments.

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-26 -Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Finance Hon. Bob Packwood, then Chairman, now Ranking MinorityMember Hon. John Heinz, then Chairman, Subcommittee on International Finance and Monetary Policy Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Hon. Jake Garn, then Chairman, now Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs Hon. Fernand J. St Germain Project Director: Julie Corte, 228-6354 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: December 1988 SUPERFUND IMPLEMENTATION -In 1981 the Environmental Protection agency began the Superfund program to clean up the Nation's worst hazardous waste sites. About 26,000 sites have been identified, of which 18,000 have been removed from consideration following preliminary analyses (PA) and site investigations (SI). About 6,000 sites have not yet received a PA. There may be many more sites; EPA has not systematically looked for uncontrolled hazardous waste sites. Thus, the full extent of the cleanup task facing the Nation is ill defined, and there is great uncertainty about future Federal spending. Only a handful of sites have been cleaned up, accor~ing to the EPA, and there is disagreement over these decisions. The National Priorities List (NPL) now has 951 sites slated for a permanently effective cleanup. The Hazard Ranking System (HRS) used to decide whether a site is placed on the NPL has often oeen criticized and is being revised now. Only about 40 of the NPL sites have a remedial action underway. The majority (over 500) are awating remedial investigations (RI) and feasibility studies (FS) and about 400 NPL sites are being studied. This study will analyze the critical early phases of the Superfund program to address such questions as: Do current actions assure that all potential Superfund sites will be discovered and, onced discovered, promptly assessed and acted upon? Are technologies available for more effective immediate actions that can reduce community concerns and improve the economic efficiency of the whole program? The HRS methodology will be examined. The technical quality of the RI and FS phases will be examined. In particular, the implications of the technical decisions in these phases for effective cleanup will be assessed. An analytical framework will be designed to describe how the Superfund program has changed over time as a result of actions by Congress and EPA. OTA will examine if improved management and permane~tly eifective cleanup technoiogies are being used to deliver effective environmental protection ac least cost.

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27 Requesters: House Committee on Public Works and Transportation Hon. James s. Howard, Chairman Hon. James L. Oberstar, Chairman, Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chairman Hon. Thomas A. Luken, Chairman, Subcommittee on Transportation, Tourism, and Hazardous Materials House Committee on Government Operations Hon. Mike Synar, Chairman, Subcommittee on Environment, Energy, and Natural Resources Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Hon. Frank Lautenberg, Chairman, Subcommittee on Superfund and Environmental Oversight Hon. Ike Skelton, U.S. Representative Project Director: Joel Hirschhorn, 228-6361 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: July 1988 SEISMIC VERIFICATION OF NUCLEAR TEST BAN TREATIES -For nearly 30 years, a ban on the testing of nuclear weapons has been a major objective of arms control. Although the past five administrations have sought to achieve this goal, it has remained unattainable due in large part to the technical question of whether such a treaty could be adequately verified. This question has become particularly pronounced in view of the administration's finding that the Soviet Union is likely to have violated the Threshold Test Ban Treaty by exceeding the 150 kiloton testing limit. The specific concern is that seismic methods used to verify test bans may not be able to distinguish between earthquakes and certain relatively small nuclear explosions. In addition, the monitoring network could perhaps be evaded by muffling explosins in large underground cavities, or by masking explosions during naturally occurring earthquakes. Recently, there have been a number of technological achievements in the field of seismology and assertions have been made that they will significantly improve our capabilities to monitor underground nuclear explosions. Some of these new discoveries may also provide effective methods for countering the possible evasion ploys. This study will examine the nature of these new technologies and assess their potential for improving our seismic verification capabilities.

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28 Request or Affirmation of Interest Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Hon. Dave Durenberger, th~n Chairman Hon. Patrick Leahy, then Vice Chairman House Committee on Foreign Affairs Hon. Dante Fascell, Chairman House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence Hon. Lee Hamilton, then Chairman Project Director: Greg van der Vink, 228-6420 Under TAB Review and Classification Review ADVANCED SPACE TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGIES -Recent executive branch reports have identified ambitious civilian and military space goals, many of which could only be met by achieving significant advances in space transportation technology. Whether or not this nation chooses to pursue these specific goals, Congress needs credible information regarding the relationship between space goals and space launch technology and the feasibility of achieving critical technical and cost milestones. Although some technology research will be ''generic,'' the launch needs of NASA, Air Force, SDI,.and the U.S. private sector are not identical. If this nation ch)oses to invest in advanced launcher technology, it will be important to ensure that launch vehicle requirements are met without unnecessarily dissipating scarce national resources on duplicative or unproductive research. In light of these concerns, OTA's assessment will: 1) identify launch systems capable of serving the plausible range of demand for space transportation over the next 20 years; 2) identify and evaluate key technologies -including low-cost, low-technology systems -that might increase the performance and reduce the cost of space transportation while contributing to U.S. industrial competitiveness; 3) evaluate the time and cost of development of these technologies; 4) determine how changes in spacecraft design and operations will influence launch technology; 5) analyze techniques and incentives that could reduce the operations and maintenance costs of new technologies; 6) examine alternative roles for the private sector; 7) assess the state of advanced launch research in other countries; and 8) discuss the adequacy of existing institutions for carrying out an aggressive R&D program to meet the needs of diverse users. Requesters: House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Hon. Robert A. Roe, Chairman Hon. Manuel Lujan, Jr., Ranking Minority Member Senate Committee on Commerce, Science,and Transportation (99th Congress) Hon. John C. Danforth, then Chairman, now Ranking Minority Member Hon. Slade Gorton, then Ranking Minority Member

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29 -Interim Deliverables: Space Launch Operations: Technologies for Cost Reduction (Technical Memorandum) (March 1988) Future Space Transportation Options (Technical Memorandum) (March 1988) Low-Cost, Low-Technology Space Transportation Options (Staff Paper) (March 1988) Project Director: Richard DalBello, 228-6428 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: January 1989 MAINTAINING THE DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY BASE The security of the United States relies to a great extent on the technological superiority of our military systems over those of the Soviet Union. In recent years there has been a growing concern over the health of the defense technology base, the indispensable underpinning of this qualitative superiority. First, the speed and efficiency with which new technologies are exploited for defense purposes appears to be declining. Second, Defense Department access to high technology and high technology products could be limited as leadership in vital areas of technology shifts to other nations due to losses in domestic and workld market shares by U.S. high technology industries. Finally, there is a downward trend in the proportion of the defense budget used to support and renew the defense technology base. This OTA assessment will explore these concerns, assessing their validity, their causes, and options for Congress to address them. In particular, the study will: 1) analyze the factors behind these and other outstanding concerns; 2) describe and analyze how the defense technology base is managed and how relevant policy is made, and identify options for Congress to improve this process; 3) describe and analyze the relation between defense and commercial sectors of selected high technology industries; 4) describe and analyze how R&D investment decisions are made in other government agencies, selected major companies, and selected foreign countries, and deduce what DOD might find useful in these approaches; and S) identify the strengths and weaknesses of the defense technology base, suggesting policy options to exploit the strengths and remedy the weaknesses. Interim Deliverables The Defense Technology Base: Introduction and Overview (Technical Memorandum) (February 1988) Requesters: Senate Committee on Armed Services Hon. Sam Nunn, Chairman Hon. John Warner, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Jeff Bingaman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Defense Industry and Technology Hon. Phil Gramm, Ranking Minority Member, Subcomittee on Defense, Industry and Technology Project Dir'-''_ ,r-: Alan Shaw, 228-6443 Project Deliver-y Date to TAB: March 1989

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30 SDI: TECHNOLOGY, SURVIVABILITY, AND SOFTWARE -This project will attempt to meet mandated study objectives by carrying out three major tasks: 1) update of the 1985 OTA Report on New Ballistic Missile Defense Technologies with respect to the technologies currently being researched under the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI). The work of the earlier report will not be repeated, but rather special attention will be given to filling in gaps in that Report and to reporting on technical progress made in the intervening two years; 2) examination of the best currently available information on the prospects for functional survival against preemptive attack of alternative ballistic missile defense system architectures currently being studied under the SDI; and 3) analysis of the issues involved in the question of whether it is feasible to develop reliable software to perform the battle management tasks required by such system architectures. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Mandated by P.L. 99-190 Project Director: Tom Karas, 228-6430 Under Classification Review jealth and Life Sciences Division AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT FOUNDATION -In 1980, Congress established the African Development Foundation (ADF). Evaluations by the U.S. Agency for International Development (AID), the World Bank, and other donors had revealed persistent gaps and weaknesses in U.S. agricultural and other technical assistance and Members hoped that ADF could contribute to more successful U.S. approaches. Now, after several years of funding, ADF supports approximately 100 projects in 19 African countries, e.g., ones that improve local water supplies, provide small-scale credit, and expand vegetable and fish farming. Although ADF's history is brief, Congress has asked a fundamental question: is the Foundation having an impact? And what can be done to improve this innovative approach to self-help development assistance? This assessment will examine ADF's funding of agriculture and renewable resource projects to: 1) assess the degree to which ADF achieves its legislated purposes to support participation of the poor in development; 2) assess the extent to which ADF efforts are sustainable and replicable; 3) examine the degree to which people's participation has led to social and economic development; and 4) identify lessons learned for ADF, AID, and other donors.

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31 Requesters: House Committee on Foreign Affairs Hon. Dante B. Fascell, Chairman Hon. Howard Wolpe, Chairman, Subcommittee on Africa House Select Committee on Hunger Hon. Mickey Leland, Chairman Endorser: Senate Foreign Relations Committee Hon. Paul Simon, Chairman, Subcommittee on African Affairs Project Director: Phyllis Windle, 228-6533 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: January 1988 TECHNOLOGY AND PUBLIC POLICY TO ENHANCE GRAIN QUALITY IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE -U.S. agriculuture is beginning to show signs of declining international competiveness. For U.S. grains, the major component of agriculutral exports, quality is becoming a growing reason for this decline. Complaints from foreign buyers have surged in recent years and Congressional concern is growing about the poor quality of U.S. grain. Grain producers already are having difficult financial times and the loss of sales for quality reasons adds to their further problems. In Congressional debate of the Food Security Act of 1985 legislative proposals were discussed on how best to improve U.S. grain quality. It became quite apparent that little is known about this area, so Congress amended the Food Security Act to direct the Office of Technology Assessment to conduct a study on grain-handling technologies and export quality standards. The study is to provide information on: 1) competitive problems the U.S. faces in international grain markets attributed to grain quality; 2) the extent to which U.S. grain-handling technologies and quality standards have contributed to declining grain sales; 3) differences in grain-handling technology and export quality standards between the U.S. and competitor countries; 4) consequences to exporters and farmers to changes in grain-handling technologies and quality standards; and 5) feasibility of utilizing new technology to better classify grains. Request or Affirmation of Interest Mandated in Food Security Act of 1985 House Committee on Agriculuture Hon. Ede la Garza, Chairman Hon. Edward R. Madigan, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Berkley Bedell, chen Chairman, Subcommictee on Deparcmenc. Operation, Research, and Foreign Agriculture Joint Economic Committee Hon. James Abdnor, then Vice Chairman Projec )irector: ~ichael Phillips, 228-6510 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: June 1988

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32 -TECHNOLOGIES TO DETECT PESTICIDE RESIDUES IN FOOD --The United States and many foreign countries rely on pesticides in producing agricultural crops. Some of these pesticides adhere to raw food products and others accumulate in the edible parts of plants. Some pesticides may be further accumulated in processed foods. In any case, residues may ultimately be harmful to the consumer's health. Thus knowing the quantity and kind of pesticides and their associated breakdown products present in various food products in fundamental to protecting U.S. consumers. Classicial analytical methods used currently by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the principal Federal agency that tests food for pesticide residues, can detect less than half the various pesticides that may appear on food. Development of new or improvement of existing analytical techniques would increase the government's ability to assure the safety of the food supply. Certain new biological anaylsis methods seem to hold potential for complementing classical methods, but none has received official validation. Similarly, computer-assisted automation of pesticide analysis holds promise (e.g., increase number of samples tested) but needs further development. This OTA project will conduct a workshop to examine 1) existing and emerging techniques for residue analysis of high health hazard pesticides and their breakdown products in food, 2) techniques for automating such analyses, particularly those techniques that are inexpensive, and 3) methods for validation procedures, and 4) possible combinations of techniques that the government, in particular FDA, could use to improve its ability to identify and quantify pesticide residues and associated breakdown products 1n food. Requesters: House Committee on Agriculture Hon. E (Kika) de la Garza, Chairman Hon. Leon B. Panetta, Chairman, Subcomittee on Domestic Marketing, Consumer Relations, and Nutrition Hon. George E. Brown, Chairman, Subcommittee on Operations, Research and Foreign Agriculture House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations Hon. Thomas J. Bliley, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Hon. Patrick Leahy, Chairman Hon. Richard Lugar, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Susan Shen, 228-6526 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: June 1988

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33 MONITORING OF MANDATED VIETNAM VETERAN STUDIES -As mandated by PL 96-151, reviews epidemiologic studies regarding long-term health effects of veterans exposed to dioxins in Vietnam. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Mandated by PL 96-151. Project Director: Hellen Gelband, 228-6590 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: Indeterminate UNORTHODOX CANCER TREATMENT In 1986, it is estimated, more than 900,000 Americans will be diagnosed with cancer, and about half of those people will die from their cancer within five years. Conventional cancer treatments, even when successful, can be painful and disfiguring, and of long duration. Each year, thousands of American cancer patients turn to methods of diagnosis and treatment which have not been assessed through the standard scientific process, and for which there is inadequate information on which to judge their safety and effectiveness. Many healthy people use nontraditional methods, also unproven, which are claimed to prevent the development of cancer. The Federal Government has not taken a direct role in evaluating or controlling most nontraditional cancer treatments, although both the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the National Cancer Institute (NCI) have acted in certain instances. State legislatures have passed laws legalizing the use of treatments that have not been approved by FDA. For instance, by the mid-1970's, laetrile had been legalized in more than 25 states. More recently, in 1981, Immune-Augmentative Therapy (IAT) was made legal by the Oklahoma legislature, and the Florida legislature passed a law (repealed in 1984) allowing the use of IAT and other unconventional therapies. In the private sector, the American Cancer Society has been most active in gathering information about nontraditional therapies and disseminating it to the public. Professional societies and patient advocacy groups have also participated in critically informing medical professionals and the public about these treatments. Proponents of unconventional treatments also have information networks through which they disseminate information. The proposed assessment would 1) examine the role of public and private sector bodies in evaluating and providing information about nontraditional treatments; 2) critically review the existing literature, both from mainstream science and from the proponents of nontraditional treatments; 3) estimate, if possible,the number of Americans who avail themselves on these treatments and the financial impact on individuals and on health insurers; 4) examine the potential for conducting evaluations of nontraditional treatments that would meet the same standards of evidence required of mainstream treatments; and 5) develop objective guidelines for planning such evaluations. IAT would be used as a case study for the development of guidelines.

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34 -Interim Deliverable: Immuno-augmentative Therapy (Case Study) (June 1988) Request or Affirmation of Interest House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chairman Congressional requesters and endorsers: Hon. Guy V. Molinari, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Alfonse M. D'Amato, U.S. Senate Hon. James Howard, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Robert A. Roe, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Bill Chappell, Jr., U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Mario Biaggi, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Jim Leach, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Gary L. Ackerman, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Raymond J. McGrath, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Thomas J. Downey, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. John Myers, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Dan Glickman, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Barbara A. Mikulski, then U.S. House of Representatives, now U.S. Senate Hon. Denny Smith, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Bill Mccollum, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Edolphus Towns, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Charles E. Schumer, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Frank R. Wolf, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Robert J. Mrazek, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Robert C. Smith, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. James A. Traficant, Jr., U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Jim Lightfoot, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Patrick L. Swindall, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Norman F. Lent, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. James Abdnor, then U.S. Senate Hon. J. Bennett Johnston, U.S. Senate Hon. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, U.S. Senate Hon. William Lehman, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Frank Horton, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Beverly Byron U.S. House of Representatives Hon. James H. Quillen, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Douglas Bosco, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Don Young, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. C.V. (Sonny) Montgomery, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Berkley Bedell, then U.S. House of Representatives Hon. David S. Monson, then U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Peter H. Kostmayer,U.S. House of Representatives Hon. James Weaver, then U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Charles E. Grassley, U.S. Senate Hon. Robert J. Lagomarsino, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Matthew J. Rinaldo, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Guy Vander Jagt, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Alan B. Mollohan, U.S. House of Representatives Project Director: Hellen Gelband, 228-6598 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: June 1982

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35 THE QUALITY OF MEDICAL CARE: INFORMATION FOR THE CONSUMER -The general public relies on physicians and other medical providers for advice about medical technologies and referrals. But lay people still face the problem of evaluating the quality of care delivered by these providers. Public concern about this situation has grown as Federal and State governments, private insurers, and employers have increased efforts to moderate medical expenditures. There is concern that appropriate use of technologies and quality of care could be sacrificed as providers and plans in turn intensify activities to constrain their costs. More information is also important to enable the health care market to work efficiently. This study would evaluate possible techniques for assessing quality of care to ascertain whether valid information could be developed and made available to the public. Quality and its possible measurement have multiple dimensions. Technical aspects of quality matter to medical providers, consumers, and society, but consumers may place more emphasis than providers on interpersonal aspects. At the societal level there is interest in equitable distribution of medical technolgies and public health benefits of care. These dimensions of quality can be described and assessed by indicators of the structure, process, and outcome of care. The OTA study would examine available methodologies and develop criteria, such as validity, to evaluate measures of quality. OTA would then use these criteria to evaluate possible quality indicators for hospitals, physicians, and health plans. In its policy options, the study would consider the availability and costliness of data, organizational responsibility for quality assessment and information dissemination, and the use of quality assessment results. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Hon. Henry A. Waxman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment Hon. James H. Scheuer, member, Subcommittee on Health and the the Environment House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, then Chairman Hon. George E. Brown, member Hon. James H. Scheuer, member Senate Special Committee on Aging Hon. John Heinz, then Chairman, now Ranking Minority Member Hon. John Glenn, Ranking Minority Member, still member Project Director: Jane Sisk, 228-6590 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: March 1988

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36 -DIAGNOSTIC MEDICAL TESTS: IMPACT ON PUBLIC AND PRIVATE POLICIES TOWARD HEALTH CARE --Tests to identify individuals who are likely to develop serious diseases are being rapidly developed. Some of these tests are directed at genetic diseases for which there are no known therapies, thereby raising questions over the social consequences of identifying susceptible persons. Use of the test for detecting antibodies to the AIDS virus is already a highly controversial issue. The use of diagnostic tests by health insurance companies, self-insured businesses, and health maintenance organizations may lead to substantial costs to government if private insurance becomes very costly or unavailable. While the Federal government plays an important role in financing health care, the regulation of health insurance is largely a State function. This assessment would: 1) identify the tests in use and under development; 2) identify how such tests are used in setting insurance rates for employees and their dependents or in excluding such individuals from coverage; 3) estimate the number of people who could be affected; 4) estimate the health care costs for treating or caring for affected invididuals; and 5) develop policy options vis a vis the Federal role 1n relationship to State and private sector actions and responsiblities. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chairman Hon. Henry A. Waxman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment House Committee on Government Operations Hon. Ted Weiss, Chairman, Subcommittee on Intergovernmental Relations and Human Resources House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Hon. James H. Scheuer, Chairman, Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Agriculuture Research and Environment House Committee on Ways and Means Hon. Fortney H. (Pete) Stark, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health Hon. Daniel K. Inouye, endorser Project Director: Larry Miike, 228-6590 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: March 1988 DRUG LABELING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES The U.S. pharmaceutical industry is a major supplier of pharmaceuticals to the world, including many developing countries. The industry has been criticized heavily 1n the past for "mislabeling" of certain drugs sold in those countries. Labeling problems can be of two types: inclusion of indications for a drug's use that are not justified by scientific studies, and failure to include adequate warnings of a drug's side effects or contraindications. Leaving aside the question of past claims, the request for this assessment asks whether such labeling is occurring today. This has been, and continues to be a contentious issue in the Congress and between the pharmaceutical industry and public interest or consumer groups. Despite this attention, there has been no obJ~~=l~e, ~roadly-based evaluation of this issue.

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37 The central issue is not simply one of whether there are differences in labeling between those drugs sold in developing countries and those sold in the U.S. (or other selected industrial nations) but whether any such differences are significant in terms of what is known about the efficacy and safety of such drugs. The major goals of this assessment would be to evaluate (for a selected list of representative drugs) not only whether differences in labeling are occurring presently, but also whether such differential labeling is appropriate in light of knowledge about the drugs. To this end, the assessment would: 1) identify possible candidate drugs whose labeling is to be evaluated; 2) collect samples of such labeling from a minimum of eight developing countries (five such countries specifically indicated and at least three at OTA's selection); 3) evaluate the labeling of the drugs by comparing to information from the scientific literature and any other relevant and expert sources. Requesters: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Edward M. Kennedy, Ranking Minority Member (now Chairman) House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chairman Hon. Henry Waxman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment Project Director: Larry Miike, 228-6590. Projected Delivery Date to TAB: (Phase I) April 1988 THE FEDERAL RESPONSE TO AIDS: CONGRESSIONAL ISSUES The growing impact of AIDS on the Nation's health continues unabated, despite the optimism generated by the discovery and rapid approval of the first palliative drug against the AIDS virus and prelminary testing of possible vaccines. Preventing the spread of the AIDS virus is the primary strategy that is available, but is dependent on as yet unresolved differences on when testing for infection is appropriate and on how to alter the behavior of high-risk groups. The nation's, and even many other countries', social, economic, legal, and political systems have all been affected to some degree by the appearance of AIDS, and controversies over AIDS have begun to affect international relations and comity among nations. Congress has responded with rapid increases in federal funds for scientific and medical research and for research and services in preventive education, and has begun to grapple with the difficult issues involved in financing AIDS-related health care. These diverse issues warrant a different approach from the usual OTA assessment, and would be oriented toward a monitoring and advisory capability within OTA to assist the increasing number of congressional committees that have AIDS on their agendas.

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38 -Interim Deliverables: Do Insects Transmit AIDS? (staff paper) (published 9/87) Effectiveness of Educational Programs to Prevent AIDS (Staff Paper) (Summer 1988) AIDS and Health Insurance: A Survey (Staff Paper) (February 1988) Requesters: Technology Assessment Board, with encouragement from the House Appropriations Committee Project Director: Larry Miike, 228-6590. Projected Delivery Date To TAB: Indeterminate NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN BIOTECHNOLOGY --In a series of five reports, OTA addresses the ongoing revolution in biological technology -that is, biotechnology. Each among this growing cohort of technologies carries its own scientific benefits and risks, and allied social, economic, legal, and ethical issues. A brief description of the reports follows: 1) Ownership of Human Tissues and Cells analyzes the legal, ethical and economic interests of the human sources of tissues and cells, as well as those of the physicians or researchers who obtain and develop these biological materials. The report also describes the potential of three biotechnologies for manipulating human tissues and cells to yield commercially valuable products; 2) Public Perceptions of Biotechnology is based on an OTA commissioned national survey of the state of public knowledge and opinion concerning issues of genetic engineering and biotechnology; 3) Field-Testing Engineered Organisms: Genetic and Ecological Issues analyzes genetic and ecological issues raised by environmental applications of genetically engineered organisms. The report describes the present regulatory approach, relevant aspects of public opinion and problems of risk assessment and research support; 4) U.S. Investment in Biotechnology addresses several broad questions relating to federal, state and industrial funding of biotechnology research, including: areas of research being funded, factors influencing investment by individual states and by industry, coollaborative research arrangements, and training; and S) Patenting Life reviews United States law relating to the patentability of micro-organisms, plants, and animals. Interim Deliverables: Ownership of Human Tissues and Cells (Special Report) (published 3/87) (Contact Gladys White, 228-6697) Public Perceptions of Biotechnology (Background Paper) (Published 5/87) (Contact Robyn Nishimi, 228-6690) Field-testing Engineered Organisms: Genetic and Ecological Issues (Special Report) (Feb. 1988) (Contact Val Giddings, 228-6682) U.S. Investment in Biotechnology (Special Report) (Feb. 1988) (Contact Kathi Hanna, 228-6683) Patenting Life (Special Report) (June 1988) (Contact Kevin O'Conner, 228-6692)

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39 -Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, then Chairman House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Senate Committee on the Budget Hon. Lawton Chiles, then Ranking Minority Member, now Chairman Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Hon. Dave Durenberger, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Toxic Substances and Environmental Oversight Project Director: Gary Ellis, 228-6681 MAPPING OUR GENES --The proposed assessment will be an early warning project likely to be of great interest to authorizing committees, appropriations committees, science agencies, and the general public. Each human cell, except sperm and egg cells, contains 46 chromosomes. The chromosomes contain an estimated 50,000 to 100,000 genes encoded throughout a sequence of some 3 to 3.5 billion DNA base pairs. Technologies to rapidly determine DNA sequences have been developed over the past decade, and have recently been automated. Techniques to identify "landmarks" on each of the human chromosomes are well underway,and the number of such landmarks is roughly doubling each year. These emerging technologies have led to speculation that the Federal Government should mount a special effort, estimated to cost in the range of $3 billion over 5 to 10 years, to generate the entire human DNA sequence. A concurrent debate centers on alternative means of usefully mapping the human genome, not necessarily resulting in a complete DNA sequence. The Japanese are mounting a major gene sequencing project, and the Howard Hughes Medical Institute (HHMI) -with its $5 billion endowment -is heavily invested in gene mapping. Policy implications arise from several sources. First, the expertise to perform the sequencing resides in several different executive agenceis, primarily the Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH). Funding and coordination would thus be complex. Second, this could be among the first "big science" projects in biology, requring substantial resources over a sustained period. Third, the technologies to do the sequencing and gene mapping would have signficant clinical applications, scientific consequences, and industrial spinoffs for biotechnolgoy. Fourth an international effort to map the human genome would have to contend with conflicts between free exchange of data and technololgy, on one hand, and propriety and nationalistic interests on the other. Requester: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chairman

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40 -Endorsers: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Edward Kennedy, Chairman House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Hon. James H. Scheuer, Chairman, Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Agriculture Research and Environment Project Director: Robert Cook-Deegan, 228-6679 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: January 1988 METHODS OF LOCATING AND ARRANGING HEALTH AND LONG-TERM CARE SERVICES FOR PERSONS WITH DEMENTIA Growing awareness of the large number of persons affected by dementia, the difficulties involved in their care, and the lack of appropriate services for them in most communities has led to public and private efforts to establish the necessary services. Attention has focused so far on particular health and long-term care services needed by persons with dementia and their families. Less attention has been paid to methods of locating and arranging the necessary services. Some States and localities and some private agencies have established information and referral and case management systems to help families and others obtain services for persons with dementia. In some communities, local voluntary groups, usually associated with the National Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders Association, provide information and assistance to families in locating needed services. In most communities, however, the existing information and referral and case management services fail to meet the needs of persons with dementia and their families. As a result, families and other caregivers are referred from one agency to another in a haphazard, lengthy, and sometimes fruitless search for needed services. This assessment would describe, compare, and evaluate existing methods of locating and arranging health and long-term care services for this patient group. It would identify methods that are successful in some communities and may therefore serve as models for other communities. It would focus on methods that coordinate services already provided by Federal, State, and local government programs and private agencies and on methods that support rather than supplant the efforts of private voluntary groups. Requesters Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Edward M. Kennedy, Chairman Hon. Howard M. Metzenbaum House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Hon. Henry A. Waxman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment Hon. Charles Grassley Hon. Olympia J. Snowe Project Director: Katie Projected Delivery Date .:'.23-6688 :,Jember 1988

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41 -Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division TECHNOLOGY, PUBLIC POLICY, AND THE CHANGING NATURE OF FEDERAL INFORMATION DISSEMINATION -Use of information technology -such as electronic document filing, computer-aided surveys, computerized databases, optical disks, electronic mail, electronic remote printing, and electronic bulletin boards -is already affecting and could ultimately revolutionize the public information functions of government. However, the use of such technology is complicated because of tensions involving public information, management efficiency and cost reduction, and private sector cooperation and competition. This study will: identify and describe the current institutional base for federal dissemination of public information; assess the current technological base and relevant future technological developments; evaluate present and future public information needs and how technology might help meet such needs; and identify and analyze key issues and options. These will include, for example, possible future public information roles of the Government Printing Office, executive agencies, libraries, and private firms; policies for public access to and dissemination of federal information, including policies on the depository library and statistical systems; and opportunities for innovative use of information technology in, for example, electronic remote printing of federal reports, electronic access to federal data bases used in decision support systems, and scientific and technical information exchange. Requesters: Joint Committee on Printing Hon. Charles McC. Mathias, then Chairman Hon. Frank Annunzio, then Vice Chairman, now Chairman House Committee on Government Operations Hon. Glenn English, Chairman, Subcommittee on Government Information, Justice, and Agriculture Project Director: Fred Wood, 228-6760 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: February 1988 COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEMS FOR AN INFORMATION AGE --Recent advances in information storage and transmission technologies, occurring in a newly deregulated and intensely competitive economic climate, are rapidly reconfiguring the Nation's communcations networks. The revolution in computers and communcations technolgoy has already transformed the regulation and market structure of the industry, dramatically changing the way in which information is created, processed, transmitted, and made available to individual citizens and institutions. These technologies hold promise for a greatly enhanced communications system, which can meet the changing communcations needs of an information-based society. How these

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42 -technololgies evolve will depend on decisions being made now in both the public and private sectors. This study will provide a context for evaluating these decisions, and will help Congress to decide on the proper Federal role. The assessment will explore the role the Federal Government might play in this area, with particular emphasis on the issues raised by technological advances. This study will 1) characterize the new communication technologies and explore the intricacies of coordinating them; 2) identify their potential for meeting changing communications goals and needs; 3) discuss conflicts that might stem from their development and use; and 4) examine new communications systems abroad and their potential relationships to the U.S. system. Requester: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Project Director: Linda Garcia, 228-6774 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: September 1988 SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND THE CONSTITUTION IN THE INFORMATION AGE The two centuries of American constitutional history have seen accelerating scientific advance and technological change, penetrating virtually every facet of American life. The social effects of these changes are reflected in interpretations of basic constitutional principles by Congress and the Federal courts. Several recent OTA assessments have analyzed challenges posed by new communications and information technologies to provisions related to rights of property, privacy, and freedom of speech. Characteristics of advanced technologies --such as their scale, power, speed, and unprecedented capabilities --may raise new questions about fundamental powers and constraints on goverment embodied in the the Constitution. This study will complement other bicentennial activities by focusing attention on the role of science and technology in our society, and the opportunities and challenges that they may create for democratic governance in the future. It will provide a context for discussion by public policy makers, legal and judicial scholars, scientists and engineers, and the public of the values of Constitutional stability and flexibility as we move into a third century of technological change. New technology often calls for constitutional interpretation. For example, public and private use of aerial and satellite reconnaissance capabilities may raise First and Fourth amendment questions. Genetic screening may raise questions of due process. Communications systems can enhance Federalism through decentralized governmental services, and support democratic representation b'l improving the flow of information between citizens

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43 -and their representatives. These examples point to the need to advances in science and technology, examine the ways in which they may either raise challenges to constitutional provisions, or offer new ways of achieving constitutional goals. Interim Deliverables: Science, Technology,and the Constitution (Background Paper) (published 9/87) Science, Technology,and the First Amendment (Special Report) (in press) Criminal Justice, New Technology and the Constitution (Special Report) (February 1988) Biology, Medicine, and the Constitution (Special Report) (March 1988) Information Technology and Constitutional Governance (Special Report) (May 1988) Requesters: House Committee on Judiciary Hon. Peter W. Rodino, Jr., Chairman Hon. Hamilton Fish, Jr., Ranking Minority Member Hon. Robert W. Kastenmeier, Chairman, Subcommittee on Courts, Civil Liberties, and Administration of Justice Hon. Carlos J. Moorhead, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Courts, Civil Liberties, and Administration of Justice Project Director: Vary Coates, 228-6772 COPYRIGHT AND AUDIO TAPING According to some, unauthorized duplication of copyrighted works in the home deprives copyright owners of revenue and may, in the long run, undermine the economic viability of copyright industries, which as a whole rank second in contribution to GNP and earn a trade surplus of $1 billion a year. Although copyright is traditionally a private right privately enforced, Congress has, for the last five years, been attempting to formulate solutions to the perceived problem of unauthorized duplication. This study will analyze technological trends in home audio reproduction, private copying behavior and economic implications for music producers Requesters: House Committee on the Judiciary Hon. Hamilton Fish, Jr., Ranking Minority Member Hon. Robert W. Kastenmeier, Chairman-Subcommittee on Courts, Civil Liberties, and Administration of Justice Senate Committee on the Judiciary Hon. Dennis DeConcini, Chairman -Subcommittee on Patents, Copyrights, and Trademarks Project Director: Karen Bandy, 228-6771 Projected Deli'1 :_1 Date :o TAB: February 1989

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44 -NEW CLEAN AIR ACT ISSUES --This OTA assessment will focus on air pollution concerns that are among the most contentious issues facing Congress in it attempt to reauthorize the Clean Air Act. The first is urban ozone. Currently the health-based air quality standard for ozone is being exceeded in about 70 urban regions, areas in which about one-third of the population of the United States lives. EPA estimates that about half of the areas will still not be in attainment by the 1987 deadline required by the Act. Second, the assessment will address the closely related problem of regional oxidants (primarily ozone), pollutants that can lower the productivity of agricultural and forested regions and contribute to violations of health-based ambient air quality standards in urban areas, often far from the sources from the sources from which the pollutants are formed. Next, while evaluating the cost-effectiveness of controlling various sources of hydrocarbon emmisions for lowering ozone levels, the assessment will also identify which of these hydrocarbons might also be toxic air pollutants. Finally, the assessment will update our ability to analyze new options for controlling acid rain, the major focus of an earlier assessment. Requesters: Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Hon. Robert T. Stafford, then Chairman, now Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Hon. Henry A. Waxman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment Project Director: Robert Friedman, 228-6855 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: September 1988 BOOK PRESERVATION TECHNOLOGIES -This assessment will review the appropriateness of the technology selected by the Library of Congress to halt the acid deterioration of books. Acid deterioration makes books published since 1859 unusable over time. Already, millions of books in the Library of Congress' collection are too brittle to circulate. The Library has been, since the mid-1970's, working to develop the Diethyl Zinc (DEZ) Mass Deacidification process to protect the books in its collection. A pilot plant is currently being designed and tests are scheduled to begin in the Fall of 1987. However, concerns have been raised about the technological effectiveness, safety, toxicology, environmental impact, and cost effectiveness of the process. Alternative methods are being used or developed by a few other libraries around the world, though not at the scale planned by the Library of Congress.

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45 -Requesters: House Committee on Appropriations Hon. Jamie L. Whitten, Chairman Hon. Silvio Conte, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Vic Fazio, Chairman, Subcomittee on Legislative Branch Hon. Jerry Lewis, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Peter Johnson, 228-6862 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: February 1988 MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT -Early in 1987, a barge loaded with garbage went on a long odyssey in search of a home for its cargo. This infamous voayage focused attention on a growing problem, the managment of municipal solid waste (primarily from residences, businesses, and institutions). Currently, 85 percent of municipal solid waste is sent to landfills. Some landfills, however, have been closed, and many more will reach full capacity during the next decade. Developing new landfills has been difficult because of lack of available land, environmental risks, public opposition, rising disposal costs, and increasing regulation. Muncipalities are considering other options, particularly incineration and recycling. Public opposition to incineration has increased, however, because of concerns about costs and health risks. Some people contend that it should only be used after reduction and recycling programs are fully implemented. High rates of recycling, however, have not been achieved on a widespread scale, and little effort has been devoted to waste reduction, particularly how to remove those pollutants or products that can cause harm when incinerated or landfilled. OTA will evaluate how different technologies for reducing and managing municipal solid waste can be used in an environmentally and cost-effective long-term strategy. The assessment will consist of seven tasks: 1) composition and amounts of municipal solid waste; 2) opportunities for waste reduction (i.e., reducing generation of muncipal solid waste or eliminating harmful pollutants from its components; 3) technologies and capacities for recycling, incineration, and landfilling; 4) economics of different options; 5) Federal, State, and municipal programs; 6) international experiences; and 7) the future of municipal solid waste policies (policy options).

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46 -Requesters: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Hon. Norman F. Lent, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Thoms A. Luken, Chairman, Subcommittee on Transportation, Tourism, and Hazardous Materials Hon. Bob Whittaker, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Transportation, Tourism, and Hazardous Materials Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Hon. Quentin N. Burdick, Chairman Hon. Robert T. Stafford, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Max Baucus, Chairman, Subcommittee on Hazardous Wastes and Toxic Substances Hon. Dave Durenberger, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Harzardous Wastes and Toxic Substances Hon. Robert A. Roe, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Paul E. Kanjorski, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. James H. Scheuer, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Tom Lewis, U.S. House of Representatives Project Director: Howard Levenson, 228-6856 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: March 1989 SUSTAINING THE NATIONAL TECHNOLOGICAL BASE: EDUCATION AND EMPLOYMENT OF SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS -This study will identify and analyze factors affecting the education and employment of scientists and engineers over the next two decades. The objective of this analysis is to describe the dynamic interactions between public policies, private actions, and the nation's changing research work force. The first part of the study will review supply and demand data, models, and projections for individual scientific and engineering disciplines. Key trends and factors shaping supply and demand for scientific and engineering disciplines will be identified. These factors will be analyzed in detail in the second part of the study. The analysis will focus on the education "pipeline'' from precollege through early career; on the institutions that recruit, channel, and certify students in science and engineering; and on academic and industrial needs for faculty and researchers. Requester: House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, then Chairman Project Director: Daryl Chubin, 228-6933 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: February 1988

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47 -EDUCATIONAL TECHNOLOGY: AN ASSESSMENT OF PRACTICE AND POTENTIAL --The application of microcomputers in elementary and secondary education has been growing dramatically. There are now more than one million computers being used for instruction in over 85 percent of American public and private schools. In many cases, computer-based systems are coupled with other advanced telecommunications and video technologies. These systems have the potential to deliver instruction, reinforce basic skills, overcome physical and linguistic handicaps to learning, and enhance educational program effectiveness. OTA will analyze the wide range of instructional technologies currently found in American schools, and will focus on those factors that most strongly influence effective and equitable implementation: the role of federally-funded programs for educationally and economically disadvantaged children, the effects of various approaches to teacher training, incentives and/or barriers to development of appropriate software, impacts of state and local as well as private sector initiatives, and the need for ongoing research and development. The study will consider public policy options designed to make the best possible uses of educational technology in realizing the critical goal of improved learning and preparation of our youth for productive futures. Requesters: House Committee on Education and Labor Hon. Augustus F. Hawkins, Chairman Hon. James M. Jeffords, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Pat Williams, Chairman, Subcommittee on Select Education Project Director: Linda Roberts, 228-6936 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: February 1988 SAFETY IN THE COMMERCIAL AVIATION AND MOTOR CARRIER INDUSTRIES --Over the past eight years, the commercial aviation and motor carrier industries have restructured. The increased number of carriers and the freedom to set rates have brought intense competitive pressures to keep costs down. The study will examine whether transportation safety continues at an appropriate level within the new industry structures. Questions to be addressed are: What new or existing technologies can be utilized to improve safety? Is sufficient safety data available and is that information analyzed in an appropriate manner? Are Federal safety standards appropriate, and are these standards being adequately enforced? The OTA study will analyze both aviation and truck safety separately, but simultaneously, and will result in two final reports, one for each of the two modes.

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48 Requesters: House Committee on Public Works and Transportation Hon. James J. Howard, Chairman House Committee on Government Operations Hon. Cardis Collins, Chairwoman, Subcommittee on Government Activities and Transportation Endorsers Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation Hon. Ernest F. Hollings, Chairman Hon. John C. Danforth, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Wendell H. Ford, Chairman, Subcomittee on Aviation Hon. Nancy Landon Kassebaum, Ranking Minority Member Hon. J. James Exon, Chairman, Subcommittee on Surface Transportation Hon. Robert W. Kasten, Jr., Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Edith Page, 228-6939 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: Aviation (Vol. I), March 1988 Motor Carriers (Vol. II), June 1988 SPECIAL RESPONSES PHYSICIAN PAYMENT REVIEW COMMISSION ACTIVITIES -(Mandated by Public Law 99-272.) Project Director: Gloria Ruby, 228-6S90 Projected Completion Date: Indeterminate PROSPECTIVE PAYMENT ASSESSMENT COMMISSION (Mandated by Public Law 98-21, Section 601.) Project Director: Elaine Power, 228-6590 Projected Completion Date: Indeterminate INSTITUTIONAL PROTOCOLS FOR MAKING DECISIONS ABOUT LIFE-SUSTAINING TREATMENT (Special Report) (Requested by the House Select Committee on Aging, Hon. Edward R. Roybal, Chairman) Project Director: Claire Maklan, 228-6687 Projected Completion Date: February 1988 SURVEY OF ARTIFICAL INSEMINATION PRACTICES IN THE UNITED STATES (Background Paper) (Requested by Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs, Intergovernmental Relations and Human Resources Sobcommittee of the House Committee on Government Operations, and the Subcommittee on Civil Service, Post Office, and General Services of the Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs) Project Director: Alto Charo :-:ject~d Completion Date: June 1988

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49 -OSHA RULEMAKING PROCESS -(Staff Paper) -(Requested by Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources, Hon. Edward Kennedy, Chairman; Project Director: Barbara Boardman Projected Completion Date: June 1988 TECHNOLOGY AND DISABILITY -(Staff Paper) Committee on Labor and Human Resources, Education and Labor and House Committee Technology) Project Director: Barbara Boardman Projected Completion Date: May 1988 (Requested by the Senate House Committee on on Science, Space and MEDICAL APPROPRIATENESS OF OPTOMETRISTS VS. OPHTHALMOLOGISTS IN PROVIDING CERTAIN SURGERY-RELATED SERVICES -(Staff Paper) -Requested by Subcommittee on Health of the House Committee on Ways and Mean, Hon. Fortney Stark, Chairman, and Hon. Bill Gradison, Ranking Minority Member) Project Director: Barbara Boardman Projected Completion Date: March 1988 ELECTRONIC DELIVERY OF PUBLIC ASSISTANCE BENEFITS: TECHNOLOGY ALTERNATIVES AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS -(Staff Paper) -(Requested by Subcommittee on the Handicapped of the Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources, Hon. Tom Harkin, Chairman) Project Director: Priscilla Regan Projected Completion Date: February 1988 OPPORTUNITIES AND PROBLEMS CONCERNING DISSEMINATION OF FEDRAL SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL INFORMATION (Staff Paper) -(Requested by House Committee on Science, Space and Technology, Hon. Robert A. Roe, Chairman) Project Director: Fred Wood, 228-6760 Projected Completion Date: Fall 1988 LOW-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE DISPOSAL -(Staff paper) (Requested by the Subcommittee on Nuclear Regulations of the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works) Project Director: Gretchen Hund, 228-6852 Projected Completion Date: June 1988

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-so-II. E. New Assessments Approved During the Quarter Full Assessments* o Technologies to Detect Pesticide Residues in Food o Municipal Solid Waste Management Approved at 10/27/87 TAB meeting

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,-i..t;~ OTA REPORT BRIEF October 1 Hospital Information Systems at the Veterans Administration If the Veterans Administration is to implement at least a minimum level of automation in its hospitals within the next 2 years, it has no reasonable alternative to its current approach-the Decentralized Hos pital Computer Program (DHCP). VA has little choice in the near term because it has not thoroughly tested and studied alternative approaches. DHCP may adequately serve VA's near-term information needs, but it may have limitations that could make it unable to support new features that will be offered by other hos pital information systems in the 1990s. Hospital information systems can provide timely ac cess to information on laboratory test data, pharmacy orders. medical history, and other patient data used by care givers to make decisions, diagnoses, and in terventions. These systems can also aid in hospital and agency management by integrating information on re sults of treatment, resource use, case mix, and other factors that affect the cost and quality of care. VA officially began its DHCP initiative in 1982. Since then, VA programmers have been writing a ser ies of computer software packages (or modules) that are intended to eventually become a full-scale, in tegrated information system. VA has begun procuring computer hardware to deploy DHCP in 164 hos pitals. Some software is already in use, but several of the modules that form DHCP's basic system are still under development or test. At congressional direction, VA also installed commercially-developed information systems at three hos pitals. The purpose was to determine whether software already developed by commercial vendors could serve VA better than the software now being written in house through DHCP. Contracts with the vendors contained options for VA to buy additional quantities l1f the vendors systems if they proved better than DHCP. Cnfortunately. this test was not designed in .:i way that .:illowed VA to make a good comparison of the features .:ind costs of the vendors approaches. Even though the commercial systems have some use tul features th.:it DHCP does not. it would increJse costs or delay implementation or both if \'A 1,vere to switch from DHCP to a commercial system ,1t the present time. It would be expensive for VA to exer cise the options to buy additional systems under the current contracts; costs and approaches to installing hardware have changed since the contracts were writ ten. But reopening the bidding process would delay automating the hospitals for two years or more. VA faces technical and economic risks in choosing to remain with its self-developed software. Some of the DHCP software is still under development and may not work as planned, especially in hospitals with high transaction volumes. In addition, problems of integrat ing new modules may be more severe than VA has an-ticipated. DHCP may be adequate for VA's near-term hospi tal information needs, but possible limitations related to the system architecture, database structure. and programming language may make DHCP an unsuitable platform for building the information system VA will need in the late 1990s and beyond. VA's current planning process does not explore needs, opportunities, and alternative options for the next generation of hospital information systems; its sole focus is further development of DHCP software. If VA wishes to benefit from technological change. it needs to examine a variety of approaches for its next generation of hospital information technology. It also needs to institute a rigorous and comprehensive stra tegic planning process to determine how hospital automation will evolve, and to track and take advantage of technological and institutional changes in medical practice and information technologies. There are two ways that VA might approach plan ning and exploring alternatives for the next generation. One is to install its basic DHCP system (called "Core Plus 8") at all hospitals and then delay writing addi tional software modules until alternatives to DHCP have been thoroughly explored. The other is to carry out the long-range planning process as a parallel et fort while it is deploying Core Plus 8. The tormer ap proach runs the risk ot delay; the latter. the risk or failing to explore all responsible alternatives. In either case, user involvement will be critical in the planning process-whether the next system is to be purchased. built in-house. or a hybrid. The user group program that VA has successfully employeu in the past should be expanded to include groups con cerned with long-range agency goals and with intor10,.:er1 The Ottice ,,r -:-echnolllg\' .-\ssessment OTA, is .1n .1nJ.J\'t1c.:il J.rm of the l .S. Cllngress. OTA s basic function 1s to help :eg1si.:itors ~nt1op<1te .md pi.:in tc'r '.he ros1t1\'e .1nd negative impacts of !echnological changes -\cicire~s: OT.-\. L".S. C.rngress. \\.1,rrn1e;:-.:,n. DC 20.310-.:3025. Pl-ione: 202 22-lc-.:i2.n. lorrn H. Gibbons. Oircctc,r.

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mation system integration and evolution. Advisors from outside the agency would also be helpful. Continuing congressional oversight will be needed to ensure that VA's deployment of the DHCP system remains on target and that the agency creates and uses a suitable long range planning process. Most important, if Congress wishes to participate in decisions affecting VA's future costs and quality of patient care, VA must defer the decision to move into production of its next-generation hospital information system until the agency has done a full assessment of the costs and risks of each alternative. Copies of the OT A special report. "Hospital Information Systems at the Veterans Administration." are available from OT A by calling (202) 224-8996.

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OTA REPORT BRIEF ~,.,,~OL()Gi tr,. October 1987 Defending Secrets, Sharing Data The influence of defense and intelligence interests on Federal policy for the security of unclassified in formation in communications and computer systems has become highly controversial. Representatives from U.S. industry, scientific and librarians' associations, civil liberties organizations, and the Department of De fense (DoD), for example, have expressed a number of contrasting concerns for the effects of recent pol icies on commerce, the free flow of information, and national defense. These concerns point to a need to reexamine Federal policy and its formulation; and they underlie legislation now moving through Congress. Government at all levels, businesses, and individ ual citizens have become vitally dependent on the secu rity of electronic communications and computer sys tems. Government policies have played an important role in determining how privacy and security of data in these systems are achieved and the responsibilities of civilian v. defense-intelligence agencies in achiev ing them. National security interests are making a noticeable and controversial impact on broader national interests. Disagreements have arisen as a result of two major trends. One is a growing concern for potential access to and misuse of U.S. sensitive, unclassified electronic information by foreign governments and others; the second is the broadening demand for various kinds of information security by the private sector and civil ian agencies, demands that generally are unrelated to national security, but include common technologies such as encryption and personal identification. The conflicts posed by these trends will become even more intense as information technology continues to spread throughout society and as more valuable information is processed and communicated electronically. The historical responsibility of the DoD for com munications security, coupled with the broadened def inition of national defense interests, has raised a ma jor policy debate: To what extent should the DoD, particularly the .\/ational Security Agency (NSA), be in volved fr1 providing the technology and exper tise for and in controlling the use of information security products in the private and civilian gov ernment sectors; Trends in Information Security: Widespread use of communications and computers has increased the need to provide safeguards for electronic data to reduce fraud, embezzlement, and errors; to cut the cost of operations; and to protect proprietary and private data. Security is increasingly important in business, government, and personal affairs, in applications rang ing from banking, auto manufacturing, to wholesale grocery businesses. Manufacturers and innovators are developing vari ous products and techniques-from cryptographic sys tems and audit trail software to biometric personal identifiers-to satisfy the needs for safeguards in a market that has yet to stabilize. Innovators in the United States and abroad are developing methods to keep messages confidential, to authenticate messages, and to verify the identities of their senders. The pri vate sector is increasingly developing technological ca pabilities that dia not exist until recently, or were the exclusive province of defense-intelligence agencies. Defense-Intelligence Interests: NSA has had responsi bility for the security of Government-classified com munications for decades and, more recently, has been assigned similar responsibility for computer systems. It has become the preeminent source of technical ex pertise in the United States in cryptography-based safe guards, virtually all of which are classified. NSA also has the mission of collecting foreign signals intelli gence, a mission that could be damaged by the dissemi nation abroad of valuable U.S. safeguard technology. In recent years, attention has focused on the role of NSA in developing safeguard technology and stand ards for nondefense use. A civilian agency, the Na tional Bureau of Standards (NBS), has the (legislated) responsibility for developing standards for computer security for civilian agency use. NBS published a widely used national standard for cryptography, the Data Encryption Standard or DES, in 1977. NSA, however, recently announced its intent to provide a secret substitute for DES. This announcement caused concern among U.S. banks and others, partly because of restrictions on the export of the new device and added cost. DoD announced its intent, in 1986, to take steps to monitor or control access by foreign agencies and others to sensitive, but unclassified information in some C.S. commercial and Federal databanks. Some critics were concerned about prospects for a new level of classification and the effects of restrictions on pub lic access to unclassified information. The cor.troversy raises many important issues that transcend information security policy, such as the separation of powers between the executive and legisla tive branches, and the process for balancing different national interests. (over; :-he Office ot Technology Assessment (OTA) is an analytical arm cf the U.S. Congress. OTA's basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and n~gative impacts of technological changes. Address: OTA. C.S. Congress. Washington. DC 20510-8025. Phone: 202, 224-0241. John H. Gibbons, Director.

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Policy Options: The basic options for policy center around the relative roles of NBS, NSA, and the pri vate sector. Congress could centralize Federal activi ties for safeguarding unclassified information in Gov ernment electronic systems under NSA; continue the current practice of de facto NSA leadership for com munications and computer security; or, separate the responsibilities of NSA and NBS for the development of safeguard standards along defense and nondefense lines. The latter option is essentially that of HR 145, the Computer Security Act of 1987, which passed the House in mid-1987. Each option has shortcomings. Essentially, the choice depends on whether policymakers prefer to tolerate greater tensions, a blurred division between defense-intelligence and civilian matters, and more constrained private sector technical capabilities. or to accept risks that intelligence capabilities might be com promised by the proliferation abroad of U.S. safeguard technology. Copies of the OT A report. Defending Secrets. Sharing Data. are available from the Superintendent of Documents. U.S. Go1..'ernment Printing Office. Washington. DC W402-9325 1202) 7"83-3238. Tlie GPO stock number is 052-00301083-6: the price is 58.50. Copies of the report _for congres sional use are available by calling cl-8996. Summaries .:if reports are available at no charge from the Office of Technology Assessment.

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OTA REPORT BRIEF October 1987 Starpower: The U.S. and the International Quest for Fusion Energy Fusion energy could be an attractive source of elec tricity because it has potential environmental and safety advantages over other major energy sources and has an essentially unlimited supply of fuel. However, it is too early to tell whether fusion energy can be economically produced. Even if successfully developed, fusion will probably not provide a significant fraction of the U.S. electri city supply before the middle of the 21st century. Al though fusion researchers have made a great deal of progress in the last three decades, at least three more decades of research and development will be required before a prototype commercial reactor could be oper ated and evaluated. Fusion's widespread use would take several decades beyond that. The near-term goal of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) magnetic confinement fusion program is to complete the research and development needed to design such a prototype fusion reactor by the early part of the next century. However, the U.S. fusion budget currently falls far short of what is needed to meet that goal independently. OOE's schedule requires either substantially in creased U.S. budgets or an unprecedented level of col laboration between the United States and the other ma jor world fusion programs-those of Japan, Western Europe, and the Soviet Union. Fusion research has a long history of successful and mutually beneficial international cooperation. If this tradition can extend to a much greater level, the coun tries with major fusion programs can share much of the cost of developing fusion power. Large-scale collaboration between the United States and foreign part ners will require sustained support at the highest levels of government and the resolution of a variety of po tential difficulties. International collaboration cannot substitute for a strong U.S. research program. Sacrificing the domes :ic program to support international projects would undermine :he reason for collaboration and com promise the ability to conduct it successfully. Potential problems with fossil fuels and nuclear fis sion provide incentives to develop alternate energy technologies. Unlike fossil fuel powerplants, fusion re actors would not produce various air pollutants, nor would they produce carbon dioxide gas, whose ac cumulation in the atmosphere could affect world cli mate. Unlike nuclear fission-the process used in ex isting nuclear powerplants-fusion should not produce high-level, long-lived radioactive wastes. Also, the safety of an appropriately designed fusion reactor should be easier to demonstrate than that of a fission reactor. However, both coal and nuclear fission have fuel supplies adequate to provide energy well into the next century and beyond. The prospect of future energy shortages alone does not justify a crash program to develop fusion power. Therefore, fusion will not be commercially used unless it is clearly better. It would be unwise to emphasize one fusion feature-environmental or safety advantages or economics-over the others before we know which aspect will be most important for fusion's eventual acceptance. After growing more than tenfold in the 1970s, the U.S. fusion program budget has been declining in re cent years. Including the effects of inflation, present funding is about one-half of its peak level of a decade ago. Cuts in the program budget have not resulted from poor technical performance or pessimistic evalu ations of fusion's prospects. Rather, a much-reduced sense of public urgency, coupled with the mounting Federal budget deficit, has tightened the pressure on fusion research budgets. Choices made over the next several years can place the U.S. fusion program on one of four fundamentally different paths: 1. With substantial funding increases, the U.S. fusion program could complete its presently mapped-out research effort independently, per mitting decisions to be made early in the next century concerning fusion's potential for commer cialization. 2. At only moderate increases in U.S. funding levels, the same results as above might be attainablealthough possibly somewhat delayed-if the United States can work with some or all of the world's other major fusion programs at an un precedented level of collaboration. 3. Decreased funding levels, or current levels in the absence of extensive collaboration, would require modification of the program's goal and delay U.S. evaluation of fusion as an energy technology. -1:. Eliminating funding for fusion research in the Cnited States would foreclose the possibility 0t developing fusion as an energy technology do mestically. Work would probably continue abroad, although possibly at a reduced pace. Resumption of research in the United States at a later date would be possible but difficult. Copies of the OTA report, "Starpower: The U.S. and the International Quest for Fusion Energy, are a.:ailable from the Suverintendent of Documents. U.S. Government Print ing Office. Washington, DC :W402-93251202) ;"83-3238. Tlze GPO stock number is 052-003-010i9-8: the price is 510.00. Copies of the report for congressional use are a,:ailable by ccziling 4-3996. Summaries o_f reports are a,:ailable ,1t no charge _,:rom the Office of Technology Assessment. The Office uf Tecnnology Assessment lOTA) is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress. OT.-\'s basic function is to help lt!'?,idators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. '..J...: ____ tYT, r c t'_" ____ .,...~,... ~H ....... t..~-........... nr .,f"\C:::1f'I_W."""'::: ni,r'l."o ...,rr, ..,..,---1_.J.,.11 T""'h" rl r:ihhnn, .r-Fror"nr

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~.,, The D T Fusion Reaction and a Fission Reaction ---o--_,_concu,-. ,..,...,, :emoera1we. :1.,... 0 -,._,_ + MtlitUffl ii!' l.5 .. ev -.. \ o-"'-SOURCE: Adaoted from Pnnceton Plasma Physics l.al>Oratory, Information Bulletin NT-1: Fusion Power, 1984. p. 2 (fusion,; Office of Technology Assessment (flss1on1, 1987. Historical Magnetic Fusion R&D Funding, 1951-87 (in 1986 dollars) ,--------------------------.. -ICC) .... -I .. ,oo ,-.... I I I-oo i .... --i I-n-nr -I I I _nnn I I -,g70 ,g7'5 -SOURCE. U.S. Jeoanment of Energy, Office of Energy Researc~. ,atter ro OTA ~ro1ect staff Aug. '5. 1986. ...

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The Denver Post DENVER, COLO. D. 227,105 SUN. 425,454 NOV 15 1987 '.\!~ful IX?~ from nuc~ear fqfjon BvTheAsaoei~Pr__ still 30 years. In future :w~SHINGTON Seien' tists will need higher re: : search budgets and anoth,er 30 years to determine whether :nuclear fusion, the process that ;Po_wers the sun,. can fulfill its .~ghterung promise as a safe and :virtually unlimited source of ener;gy on E~, according to a major ,congreSS1onal study. :: The _Office of Technology As~ssment, m a comprehe11S1ve re :i'iew of the nation's once-secret fu-sion researcn program, concluded that "it is likely although by no means certain that the engineer ing work necessary to build an electricity-producing fusion reac tor can be completed successfully" early in the next century. But the 30-year timetable, the OT A said, will require either "sub-' stantial" increases in research funding, currently about $320 mil lion per year, or "moderate" increases coupled with better collal> oration with fusion programs in Europe, the Soviet Union; and Japan. Some scientists view fusion ea,. ergy as the panacea that could. quench the world's thirst for elec trtcity as conventional fuel supplies as well as those for nuclear fJ& sion reactors dwindle. Their ex citement dates to the discovery in 1938 that fusion is the energy se cret of the sun; explaining why it been able to shine for n~arly 5 billion years while using only about half of its original fuel. ~uclear fusion is the process by which the-nuclei -or central cores -of two atoms are combined., or fused, during which a tiny portion of the original mass is released as energy. In w_ay, i_t is the opposite ~f nuclear f1SS1on, m which energy IS released when a heavy nuclei splits into smaller pieces. The big problem is that a fusion reaction, using hydrogen gas as fuel, requires temperatures exceed ing 100 million degrees centigrade and no materials on Earth are capable of containing fuels at such h~ The answer then, is to con tain the reaction in a magnetic field. When the fJJsion program started under the code name Sherwood Project in 1951, some physicists predicted then they could build such a reactor within 30 years the same timetable now cited by the OTA. But the OTA, the non-partisan arm of Co~gress that advises the House and Senate on technical is sues, said much progress has been made in recent years. "Experi ... ments now built or proposed should, over the next few years, reso~ve r:n.ost of the r_na,or remaining sc1entlf1c uncertainties regarding the fusion process," the OTA said. Barring major surprises, the tech nology to build a prototype com mercial reactor is "likely." The OTA consulted with scores of physicists and other scientists before compiling its 238-page re port, entitled "Starpower."

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ENERGY OAIL.Y WMHINBTON. DC DAnY TlESDAY OCT Z7 1987 Buerua -7819 -N:J Fusion: $20 Billion And Half A Century Away, Says Report BY BILL RANKIN (pd)._ q '7 5(: The U.S. research and development budget for t"Gsion energy must be greatly increased or international pro grams must collaborate more closely if the world's first fusio~reactor is to be built by the early 21st century, th~ Office of Technology MCM111f"t (OTA) says in a report released on Monday. But even under the "most favorable circumstances," OTA says, "it does not appear likely that fusion will be able to satisfy a significant fraction of t"e n11.ti~~s.clt.tidt1.deJnU.d.,before .. the middle. of the 21st century." It will cost an estimated $20 billion to solve remaining technical questions .and take until early in the next cen tury before a decision can be made to build the first com merci~ fusion process, OTA says. U.S. funding levels are inadequate to meet this goal, says the report: Starpower: The U.S. and the International Quest/or Fusion Energy. As a result, the U.S. must either increase its fusion research budget or begin a "wide-scale collaboration among the world fusion programs." The European Com munity, Japan and the Soviet Union are among countries heavily involved in fusion research. The allure of fusion energy _is that it could be an unlimited source of electri!=ity with environmental advan tages over other generation technologies. In a fusion reaction, the nuclei .of light, hydrogen atoms are fused together. The kinetic energy released in the reaction of two hydrogen isotopes (deuterium and tritium) can be converted to heat, which in turn can be used to make steam to drive a turbine to generate electricity. But in order to fuse hydrogen nuclei, they must be heated to about 100 million degrees Celcius. When this occurs the fused matter, which is called plasma, becomes a state in which atoms are broken down into electrons and nuclei. Keeping the plasma hot enough for a long enough period of time and effectively confining it are crit.ical ,hul'dles,,for .. fusion power~ .. It is anticipated that in 1990 a "breakeven" test will be conducted. If successful, scientists will have reached the. point atwhich the fusion power generated in a plasma equals the amountof heating power that must be added to the plasma to sustain its temperature. U.S. funding for fusion energy research soared in the 1970s to more than $650 million (1986 dollars) in I 977. But since then, funding has dropped to last year's level of $327 million. The U.S. R&D program is carried out by the Department of Energy. Decreased funding for fusion over the past decade has not been the result of poor performance, OT A says. 'On the contrary, the program has made substantial progress." What has dampened the nation's enthusiasm for fusion has been "the disappearance of a perceived need for near-term commercialization.'' -An important next step for fusion will be the develop~ ment of a conceptual design for an engineering test reac tor, called the International Thermonuclear Experimen tal Reactor (ITER). Building the reactor could cost billions of dollars, OTA says. This would be "far more than the U.S. fusion program has spent on any one facility in the past and is too expensive for the U.S. to under take alone without substantial increases in fusion funding." The conceptual design phase of the test reactor will oc cur between 1988 and 1990 and cost up to $200 million. The U.S. share of the undertaking is projected to be bet ween $15 million and $20 million annually over the three year program. International cooperation on the scale required for the experimental reactor is "unprecedented" for the U.S., the study says. A presidential decision probably will be necessary to commit the U.S. to stick with the project over its lifetime. ''At this time, DOE considerifoternatioiiafco1iabora; tion on the scale of ITER to be crucial," OT A says. "Given the seriousness of the obstacles, however, it is possible that such collaboration may not occur. In the event that no major collaboration takes place, either the U.S. fusion program will have to be funded at a higher level or i~ schedule will have to be slowed down and revised." Hlstorlcal M.,,,,.tlc Fusion Funding, 1951-117 (198tl dollars/ .. C: ""' ... ~... lf!i! IN,Q 191,!f 1970 197!1 l'IID I'll'\ __ ... __ Year .. -=--~ .. -:. __ :__ SOURCE: U.S. Department of Enarvy, Ofllce of Engy ANearch Some in Congress do not think highly of the proposed international effort. "I remain skeptical about the net benefits for the U.S. from international cooperation on a large fusion project such as an engineering test-reactor," said Rep. Marilyn Lloyd (D-Tenn.), chairman of a House subcommittee that will hold a hearing this Wednesday on the OT A report. Addi Rep. James Sensenbrenner (R-Wisc.): "Recent events have shown this country how vulnerable our technology is to illegal tranter to the Soviet Union .... Unless the U.S. has complete confidence that sensitive fusion technologies which could affect our national security and our competitive position in the world can be protected, this country should not be too eager to collaborate more closely with other nations on the next generation fusion reactor." I

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CHRONICLE OF HIGHER EDUCATION WASHINGTON, DC WEEKL V 73 000 110U 4 1987 Bufflf(tD _,.-:a, International Cooperation Urged in Fusion Research 1. Cl\ 1 r" w ASHINGTON ry. Four years later, financial supsearch to replace the Energy DeThe high cost and complexity of experiments to determine how to generate power from nuclear fu. sion make international coopera tion imperative, according to a Congressional report released hen: last week. But such collaboration, the re port adds, should not be a substi tute for a strong domestic re search effort. The report, Starpower: The U.S. and the International Quest for Fusion Energy, underlines the concerns of fusion researchers about reduced support for their programs at universities. In keepin1 with its emphasis on the importaoce of domestic re search, the report also lends sup port to the idea of construction of the Compact Ipition Tokamak, a S360-million experimental fusion device that the Reapn Adminis tration bas asked Congress to ---start this year at the Princeton P!asma Physics Laboratory, op erated by Princeton University for the Department of Energy. As a relatively clean and virtually inexhaustible source of ener lY of the kind that powers the sun and stars, nuclear fusion bas Iona been considered an attractive al ternative in the distant future to nuclear fission, which bas a limit ed fuel supply and produces much huger amounts of radioactive waste than does fusion. In 1980 Congress passed a law requiring the Department of Ener lY, which manages the U.S. fu. sion-research proaram, to take steps to determine whether a commercial reactor could be built in the early part of the next centuport for fusion research began a precipitous decline, caused by di minishing public concern about the prospects of another oil short aae and the sharply increasin1 costs of Iarae fusion experiments. The fiscal 1987 level of S345-mil lion is half what federal support for the research was at its peak a decade aao, the report notes. The Office gf Technology Assessment compiled the report at the request of the House Commit tee on Science, Space, and Tech nolOIY-lncrHlld 5uPIIOl't Needed The report concludes that Con gress cannot possibly meet the schedule set forth in the 1980 law unless it substantially increases support for domestic fusion re search and encouraaes collabora tion with other countries in new projects, some of which could cost in excess of SI-billion. It notes that about 70 per cent of the country's fusion-energy re search is conducted at national laboratories, many of which an: operated by universities for the Energy Department. Another 11 per cent, it adds, is carried out at universities and colle1es that "historically have been a major source of innovative ideas as well as scientific and technical ad=vances" in fusion research. Most of the universities' fusion research programs have annual budgets of less than SI-million, the report notes. Such proarams have been seriously impaired by the recent budget cuts, it says, be cause "there are no other sources of federal funds for fusion re/'\. partment' s appropriations." "Since 1983, two-thirds of the university and colle1e fusion pro grams have reduced or eliminated their proarams," the report says, althou(lh Energy Department offi cials have made efforts to main tain university support. In any case, fusion is no panacea for the world's future energy problems, the report emphasizes, since it is not known whether it can compete economically with other energy technoloaies. Althooah fusion reactors could be made safer than current nucle ar-fission reactors, they would still generate radioactive waste. And even. if Coqresa were to sharply increase its support for fu. sion research, it would still be decades before useful energy could be produced. "Research aimed at developing fusion as an energy source bas been viaorously pursued since the 1950's, and, despite considerable progress in recent years, it ap pears that at least three decades of additional research and devel opment will be required before a prototype commercial fusion re actor can be demonstrated," says the report. "Even under the most favor able circumstances," it adds, "it does not appear likely that fusion will be able to satisfy a sianificant fraction of the nation's electricity demand before the middle of the 21st century." Copies of the report are avail able for SIO from the U.S. Gov ernment Printing Office, Superin tendent of Documents, Washing ton 20402. -KIM McDONALD

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RADIO CLIPS DATE TIME STATION LOCATION PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD AVENUE I LIVINGSTON I NEW JERSEY 07039 (201) 992-6600 I (212) 227-55 70 I (800) 631-1160 December 2. 1987 6:00-6:45 PM WQXR 1560AM New York Science and Technology Times John Noble Wilford reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER Fusion energy probably cannot provide a significant fraction of the American electricity supply before the middle of the next century. This is the 10/6297 Y conclusion reached by' the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment. It's discouraging news. but hardly surprising. Fusion is the same thermonuclear process employed in the hydrogen bomb. and is the energy source of the sun. Fusion could be an attractive source of electricity because it has potential environmental and safety advantages compared to normal nuclear power. Also. it has a centrally unlimitied supply of fuel, the hydrogen from water. The congressional study based on the assessments of many scientists concluded that it will take another thirty years of concentrated research to determine whether nuclear fusion can fulfill its promise of low cost. safe energy. The thirty-year timetable will require either substantial increases in research funuing. or about three humlreu twenty million uollars a year in this country. or it will take moderate increases coupled with better collaboration with fusion programs in Europe. the Soviet Union. and Japan. The big problem is that a fusion reaction necessitates temperatures exceeding a hundred million degrees. The only way to contain such heat is in a magnetic field. The congressional group said it's still too early to tell whether fusion energy can ever he economically produced. This is John Noble Wilford of the New York Times. ::;1 Words 19 Clips

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(=-------------ever, magnetic fusion, too, has military The road to connections. I t fu ? Rep. Ralph M. Hall (D-Tex.) queried the magne IC s1on. c,;_, 257/' willin~ness ?f the Soviets to _collaborate. Epstein replied that the "Soviets are very Controlled thermonuclear fusion interested in collaborating" and added promises to supply a significant portion that much of the initiative for the agree of the world's electricity by the middle of ment came from Mikhail Gorbachev himthe 21st century, according to Starpower, self. a report issued last week by the Office of Rep. Marilyn Lloyd CD-Tenn.) sug Technology Assessment (OTA), which adgested that we "might be giving more vises Congress on scientific and techthan we intend to give," pointing out that nical matters. up to now the main goal of the Soviet However, to maintain progress toward fusion program has not been the produc that goal, the report concludes, the magtion of electrical power, but fuel for their netic fusion program that the United fission reactors. Clarke replied that in States has pursued for the last 40 years as recent months. since Chernobyl, the Somainly a national project will have to be viets are starting to look at fusion as an internationalized. electricity source. "They realize they've The U.S. Department of Energy, which got a real problem with their fission administers the fusion program, agrees. reactors." According to John F. Clarke, associate The next step for ITER is for the four director of the agency's Office of Fusion research agencies that negotiated the Energy, the United States concluded an agreement to get the legislative approval agreement in Vienna, Oct. 18 and 19, with of their governments. If approved, ITER the world's three other major pursuers of will have a four-person council represent fusion research the European Coming each of the partners. of which Clarke munity, Japan and the Soviet Union, for will be chairman. Somewhat unusually, it the construction of the next large step on will operate on the basis of unanimous the way to a practical fusion reactor. decisions. This project will be called lTER, for Commenting on this, Hall said: "I think International Thermonuclear Experi-what you propose is ideal. I'm not sure it mental Reactor, Clarke testified at a hear-will work. You've got a tremendous job on 1 ing by the Subcommittee on Energy Re-your hands. Don't give away the store." search and Development and the -D.. Thomsen Subcommittee on International Scientific ---1 Cooperation of the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology. "My friends who know Latin tell me that iteris the Latin word for road," Clarke told the representatives. "This seems to be the road for magnetic fusion." Also testifying at the hearing, Gerald L. Epstein, project director of OTA's Energy SCIENCE NEIJS and Materials Program, said OTA had identified three possible future roads for the magnetic fusion program: a contin ued national effort. which would require WASHINGTON, DC substantial increases in its budget; inter nationalization; or cancellation. Budget problems, particularly the deficit, make the first option unlikely, he said. The third is undesirable. That leaves internation alization. The committee members seemed to accept the idea of internationalization. but they expressed concerns about such things as technology transfer. secrecy and the touchy politics of managing a joint project among such disparate partners. There are two main approaches to fusion. Inertial-confinement fusion uses pellets of solid fuel that receive blasts of laser light or accelerated particles to induce fusions in them. It is closelv related to weapons research and is not part of the contemplated international program. The other approach, magnetic fusion, tries to induce fusions in a hot plasma, an ionized gas. contained and compressed by a magnetic field. HowWEKLV 180,000 NOU 7 1987

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research FUSION OTA sees no big impact until mid-21st century (;2 'I) f With the world's major fusion pro grams maneuvering toward the forma tion of a joint magnetic confinement de sign effort that could lead to a construc tion project. the U.S. Office of Technol ogy Assessmen!_has released a report on fusion prospects that expresses overall optimism for the technology-and doubt that it could contribute significantly to the United States energy supply before the middle of the 21st century. The OTA, an agency of the U.S. Congress, foresees at least three more decades of developmental work before a power-pro ducing prototype fusion power plant can be built, operated, and evaluated. The report adds that if the fusion program cannot gain and sustain higher budget al locations. or work out extensive. cost sharing international collaborations. fu sion power will arrive much later, if it ar rives at all. The report, issued publicly on October 26, is titled Starpower: The U.S. and the 700 600 500 ;; 400 0 ., 0 e 300 200 100 ,--..... -,. --... -,. ,. __ nnn 1955 1960 1965 International Quest For Fusion Energy (OT A-E-338). It is generally quite upbeat. citing the potential abundance and environmental benignity of fusion power. The report opines that the remaining sci entific uncertainties in the practicality of fusion will probably be resolved in the next few years, on research devices now in existence or proposed. The OT A be lieves. however, that it is too early to tell if fusion reactors (in whatever final form they take) will be economically competi tive with other energy sources. In its 238 pages, the report also includes a fusion primer. a history of work in the field, and separate views of fusion from the standpoints of research and energy. Copies of the report are available for $10 each from the Superintendent of Docu ments. U.S. Government Printing Of fice. Washington. D.C. 20402-9325; the GPO stock number is 052-003-01079-8. The favorable view of fusion prospects is not as likely to catch the eyes of the OT A's congressional clients as the esti mates of how long it would take for fusion to emerge from development and provide significant energy. In an era of tightening budget squeezes-likely to '"' ,. ... --,. -,. -... --1970 1980 1985 Vear Historical magnetic fusion R&D funding, 1951-87 (1n 1986 do11ars I Source U S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Research, letter to OTA proiect staff. Aug 15. 1986 NUCLEAR NEWS I DECEMBER 1987 NUCLEAR HEYS LA GRANGE PARK, IL 15-TIHES/VEAR 14,000 DEC 11987 BUR/?ELL,es -4920 NB tighten further in the wake of sharp oscil lations in the stock market in late October-Congress will not take kindly to the notion of boosting fusion funding back to its late-1970s level (it has slipped to about half that amount since then, in inflation-adjusted dollars) and keeping it there for the next 30 years or more. with no return on the investment for another 30 years beyond that. The only alterna tive may be international collaboration on major new fusion devices. This has been the subject of empty platitudes for years. but the time may have finally come for the idea. The OT A report notes that the "[Department of Energy] now sees more extensive international cooperation as a financial necessity." The focus of the revived four-party exploration of a joint development de vice is the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER). One week before the OT A report was re leased, representatives of the L'nited States. the European Community. Japan. and the Soviet L'nion signed an agreement that formed the ITER Group (N,V, Nov. 1987. p. 151). For now. ITER will be limited to the creation of a con sensus design. but unlike the earlier four party effort ( the International Tokamak Reactor. or INTOR). the ITER Group at least admits the po,,ibility that the four could eventuallv hutld. and ,hare costs on. an actual machine. The OT .\ report looks at the DOE"s expectatwns on ITER. and notes that whtle the C.S. has never been involved m a 1omt pro1ect on such a ,;cale. there 1, <.:xpenence clse where-part1cularlv 1n Europe. through the .::omtruct1on of the J,11nt European Torus iJET) The OT.-\ report. :mJ the prn,pccts for ITER. were among the ,ub1<.:ct, ,1f ,1 heanng held 101ntl\ nn Octnber 2~ bv mo ,t;hcommltlec, ,if the H,1u,c C,1mm1ttee ,10 Sc1enc<.:. Space. ,rnJ T <.:chnologv: Energv Resear.::h and Devdopment. a~;j lntern-at1onal Sc1.:nt1f1c C,Hlperatllln. ITER 1s not <.:xpectcJ tn hav<.: ,mollth ,ailing in Congrc". because of the reluc tance of some leg1slators-and of some Defcn~c Depart~ent ,1ffic1als-to allow the SoVJct Cnion into a proiect offenng acce,, to anv high technologv ( not neces sanly related di;ectly to fu;.-on). 85 //

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LOtllllJN I Ul I H)N'.i I.I: I r M(1NH,,1;;;1 I Ni' WHKLY :-i, IIOIJ HOU ZJ 1907 D~~~~~kso~9ptl!1!~~.0,~!~~ {~iyil!:J!. "P,ef ense Data Security WASHINGTON -The Conr,emai_n: Should the Natim:ial tugged on both ends of the na-NSA decided to_ d_eve.lop its gressional Office of Technol-Secur_1ty_ ~g~ncy, or NSA, tional security blanket. ow~ cryptographic code for ~n-qgy Assessment has made the have JUnsd~ct10n over non-de-The House of Representa-d_ustry. and government agen-latest eniryin the debate over fense secunt~ standards, and tives intervened by passing c1es ahke, _n<_lted .. th~ report. civilian and defense agency can the National Bureau of HR 145 the Computer Securi-. This dec1s10n raised som_e data security. Standards,_ or NBS, _N_SA ty Act of 1987 The bill-now m~ustry conce_rns becau~e 1t In its recently released re-spht sec~nty respons1b1l,1t1es. awaiting its fate in the Senn:i1ght result m the ~estnc-port, "Defending Secrets, Shar-Accord_mg to the OTA s re-ate-would put the NBS _in ~10ns on_ the us~ .of ~Jmpment ing Data: New Locks and port; neither the NS~ nor charge of computer secunty embodymg th.m,e dLstgns: ~nd Keys for Electronic InformaNB? sho~ld alone p~ov1de s~standards for civilian agencies it might also allow NSA itself tion," OTA concluded that c~~1ty gmdance._ While the c1-and private industry and leave eav~sd~op o?, cor_porate CX?mCongress should propose a v1han and pnvate sectors 1 'fied d t th I d f mumcatJons, said th'"eUTA t ., II d d t' fid c ass1 I a a In e 1an s o t d C t -d process "for weighing compelrp1_ca y nee a a con I ei:ithe NSA. s u y. ongress mus cons1_ er ing national interests" betiahty, the m1htary sector 1s Th OTA rt T .zed th these Issues as well as tree tween the civilian and defense concerned with national secuC e t res po _cnt icAi t fi e flow of data and the vulnert d "fi t Ir ompu er ecun y c or b'tt f t d t sectors. n y an ore1gn m e 1gence fi T to ddre "th bTt a 1 1 y o sens1 1ve a a, ac-gathering," according to the at mg a 88 e '?1P3 1 1 Y cording to the OTA. The Department of Defense and civilian agencies have been clashing over tl,e handling of sensitive data ever since former National Security Adviser John Poindexter issued the nowdefunct national security policy tl1at added a category of 'sensitive but unclassifle,l' data to government information in 1986. report. to sup~rt u nclassified re-The House Committee on "This difference is one reasear~h 10 safeguard technol-Government Operations and son why some of the business ogy. the House Committee on the community has been reluctant Addmg th1 s ele~e~t would Judiciary requested the OTA to accept safeguard technol-strengthen the ability_ ~f the study. "There is no question ogies based on NSA's assess-pnvate sector. to sati~fy its that the federal government ment of needs or that are own_ needs for mformation semust act forcibly to counter tightly controlled by NSA," cunty and reduce ~ependence the growing threat of foreign said the OTA report. 0,n the government, ~aid OTA. exploitation of our computer-The Department of Defense Congress must provide a pro-based information systems," and civilian agencies have cess to Judg~ _confli~tmg pnsaid Rep. Jack Brooks (D-Tex-been clashing over the han-vate ~nd military mtercsts, as), chairman of the House dling of sensitive data ever accordmg to the report. Committee on Government since former National Securi-The _NSA was gra~ted the Operations. ty Adviser John Poindexter isa_uthonty ~o develop mforma-However, he added, "We sued the now-defunct national tion secunty standards under cannot let our efforts to defend security policy that added a N'.1tio~al Secur!ty Decision our national security interests category of "sensitive but unDire~tive _145, signed by the unduly limit or hinder this exclassified" data to government president m 1984. In 1986, the change by creating a 'Big information in 1986. -------------Brother' atmosphere, with the Although Poindexter's confederal government looking troversial order was later re-over everybody's shoulder." / scinded by his successor, <'rank Carlucci, it put the fear of"Big Brother" into the private and civili,m sectors. Since then,

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., FightLooms Over Control OfU.S.Data BYTEDAGRES WASHINGTON-A quiet battle is being waged here to win control over certain types of unclassified information, including scientific data, despite the Reagan adminis tration's decision earlier this year not to broaden such control The decision last March not to create a new category of "sensitive but unclassified" information has not stopped the Pentagon's Na tional Security Agency from con tinuing to set policies for defining and prot.ecting classified information. Nor has the administration revised the policy directive that gives NSA the lead role in such an effort. At the same time, a new re port from the congressional Office of Technology Assessment questions whether "a defense agency should control matters that are central to civilian interests." continued on fJOle 2

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2 THE SCIENTIST NOVEMBER 30, 1987 SECRECY continued from page I "There have not been any more visits by the CIA and FBI to com mercial data base companies," said Kenneth Allen, senior vice president of government relations for the Information Industry Associa tion. Allen was referring to past at tempts to limit or license access to such sources of information as Mead Data Central, which owns Nexis/Lexis. "But apparently the government has not given up its concern over the issue," he added. The NSA, he said, is continuing "on its own" to develop security standards for computer systems. "I predict the next definition of 'un classified but sensitive informa tion' will be itself classified" by NSA, he said. A spokeswoman for NSA, Cynthia Beck, declined to comment on any aspect of the con troversy, claiming "these are still outstanding issues." The administration proposed the new definition, according to government officials, to prevent foreign intelligence agents from piecing together national security secrets in a "mosaic" obtained from unclassified bits of informa tion maintained in various com puter data bases. But the language' was perceived by many in Congress to be the first step toward the Pen tagon's gaining control over all computer systems in the country. The new definition would have subjected some academic research papers to government review as part of a continuing effort to re strict the flow of militarily signifi cant high-technology information the Soviet Union. Civilian Control The House has passed a bill, the Computer Security Act of 1987 (HR 145), that would give respon sibility for developing computer ac cess guidelines to the National Bureau of Standards within the Commerece Department. It defines unclassified but sensitive informa tion, in part, as material "the loss, misuse, unauthorized access to, or NEWS modification of which could ad versely affect the national inter est." NSA would retain its over sight of classified information. The bill, introduced by Rep. Dan Glickman (D-Kan.), passed by voice vote in June following hear ings before subcommittees of the House Science, Space and Tech nology Committee and the Government Operations Committee. Newly designated Defense Secre tary Frank Carlucci, at that time National Security Council adviser, assured committee chairman Rep. Jack Brooks (D-Texas) in a letter that the directive that created the policy to safeguard information systems (NSDD 145) would be re viewed by the NSC to reduce or eliminate NSC's role. White House Chief of Staff Howard Baker also wrote Brooks and offered the administration's support for HR 145. That letter re versed White House opposition to an earlier version of the bill. The problem, according to administration and congressional sources, is that many in the private sector believe that NSA's activities will lead to new restrictions on un classified information. The chances of that happening are less, they argue, if NBS is given jurisdic tion over civilian data bases. "NSA is encroaching again on reclassification of federal informa tion," said one congressional ana lyst. "They've been busy over the past two years and are not waiting for passage or defeat of the bill by Congress." Issues to Be Aired Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), chair man of the Judiciary Committee's subcommittee on security and law, plans to hold a series of hearings on issues raised by NSDD 145 and HR 145. "These will focus on broad government information policy, in cluding international competition, intellectual property rights as well as the information security issues," said a subcommittee staff member. A new report by the Office of Technology Assessment notes that the "core issue" of the information security debate "goes to the question of whether or not a defense agency should control matters that are central to civilian interests, such as commerce and the free market, constitutional rights and principles of open science." The OTA report, "Defending Se crets, Sharing Data," evaluates the various options of NSA and NBS jurisdiction over setting standards for computerized information. No single solution will totally satisfy the competing national interests of security versus open access to in formation, it states. But "centering policy-making in the Department of Defense alone, and in particular NSA, would make that (process] difficult," the report concludes. a Agres is assistant managing edi tor of The Washington Times and a veteran science writer. A copy of the OTA report, "Oefendin& Secrets, Sharing Data: N-locks and Keys for Electronic Information," is available for $8.50 from the Superintendent of Documents, Govemment Printing Otllce, Washington, D.C. 20402-9325. Refer to GPO stock number 052-003-01083-6.

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OTA Cautious on Security Interests BY VANE.~SA Jo Gtt1MM GCN St.&tf Neither the defcn!>e community nor civtl ian intere~ts should be allowed to dominalc policy decisions concerning computer secu rity mailers, the Otlice of Te.:hnology A6-sessment recently concluded. While once the government only had lo balance the inlereols of the defense and ci-, vilian agencies, federal policy-makers now mUBt figure in the concerna of privale UBer:J and vendors, OTA aaid. In a report lo Congress, the lechnical research organization found that "Excessive accommodation of either commercial (civllian government and industry) or defense and intelligence concerns could prove damaging lo overall U.S. inleresls." OTA appeared lo be giving a nod 1'> leg1slat1on now being considered by Congress. Thal bill, HR 145, would swilch authonly for security of information in civilian com puler systems from the Notional Security Agency lo the National Bureau of Stanclarda. The House pasaed the bill in Ju11e, but the Senate hao yet lo act on it. "A process for weighing competing na tional inlerests is needed," OTA found. "Centering policy-making in the Depart ment of Defense alone and, in particular, N!:iA would make that difficulL" Besid .. splitting the control between the two agenciea, OTA lisW two additional op tions: Centralize aecurity authority within NSA or continue the current NSA leader ohip with NBS support. While OTA leaned toward parceling out the authority, it did so with some hesita tion. Using the 'on-the-one-hand, on-otherhand u,chnique common lo OTA reports, ii acknowledged a downside lo split authority, noli11g that it would reduce NSA control of industry innovation. The report also nou-d that HR lt5 foils 1'> adequately address infom)ution in that gray area often labded "sensitive but uncltlSSified." The government must eventually deter mine the appropriate balance of national inlerests, OTA concluded, regardless of the fate of HR 145. Government Computer Newa November 20, 1987 21 6 November 6, 1987 Government Computer Newa NEWS VA Moves Ahead With Buy After OTA Report By VAN ESSA Ju GHIMM GCNSt.aff The Veterans Administration is proceedmg wtth procurement of equipment for its automuted hospital computer sy!item, now that the congressiom,I OJfice of Technology A:.!,cssmenl has given the project a green hghl The VA requested bids lo supply equip ment for its Decentralized Hospital Com puler Program (OHCP) months ago, but the move to begin obligating funds comes J11sl recently anrl follows a series of scuttles u1 Congress over the future of the project. Congress had directed the VA to wail on spendmg $:l5 million in fiscal 1987 appro riHtiom, until the release of the OTA report The VA hopes lo award the contracls soon hut hos not finished evalu.1:1ting the proposab, according to an agency spokesman The VA pluns lo purchase up lo :12.fXlO lerminals, which VA officials have kst1fied are desperately needed in ils hospilHls 'l'lw special OTA report, bused on a 1hrcem11nth review of DHCP, gave the sys lem a short-lerm thumbs up. The VA's llllCI' will he tine fnr UKiay but insufficient lo n1rry 1L-. 17:l ho~tals into the next gent'H.111011 of mcd1ntl computing, according lo 1he OTA. The report's bottom line: Stick with DIICP for the initial automation ef fort but hegin parallel yet separale planning for automation beyond DHCP'o e>pected 10-year life. "If VA is lo implement al least a mini mum level of automation in all its hospitals within the next year or two, OTA finds no re8"0nable allernstive lo the Decentralized Hospital Computer Program," the report concluded. "To con.oider a switch lo a com mercial system at this time would increase cosls and delay implementation in the hos pitals." OTA's Report The OTA prepared the report for Con gress, where Veterans Affairs and Appm priations committees have been dueling over the direction of VA hospital automa tion. The OTA by default became the arbi ter in the political stalemate. The Veterans Alfuir., committees of both houses have consistently backed OHCP, an in-house developed syslem installed lo some degree in 169 VA hospitals. Members of tht: Appropriations committees have leaned toward three commercial systems, all known as the Integrated Hospital Syslem (IHS), that are now running experimentally in three VA hospitals. The IHS piloL'i are similar to systems being consid ered for use in the Defense Department's hospilals. House Veterans Affairs Committee chairman G. V. "Sonny" Montgomery (D. Miss.) ha led the pro-DIICP forces in the House Committee staff member Jack G. Md lomII suul of the OTA findings, "We don't tlunk the report's as unbiased as is typirnlly true of OTA reports." The report favors the commercial systems, he said. Although the report backs current IHICP funding, McDonell said, a caveat in the report would allow Congress to make additional DHCP monies dependent on de-ploymenl of the syslem 's core function modules and on planning for the nut gen eralion. "] guesa we can live with it," he said. While House Appropriations Committee sta/f were wary of diacuasing poasible fur. ther action, a member of its Senate counlerpart said, "My gut feeling, based on that report, is that I don't see any reason lo hold up the funding any longer." Before the report' release, committee staff members had aaid that unless OTA lambasted OHCP, the VA could begin obli gating the $35 million. VA officials said the agency is going ahead with the procurement and has heard nothing from the committee& about holding off any longer on the contract award. The OTA report confirmed I hat the VA'a current procurement would provide enough computer capacity for running Lhe full set of core, enhanced and comprehensive mod ules in all 172 hospitals. The report noted that the lime lo con sider !HS had pasaed and lo replace DHCP with HIS now would be the most costly and disruplive alternative. The OTA concluded, as have previoUB reviewers, that the three lest systems could not be sufficiently or fairly compared lo DHCP. "Once the agency had elected OHCP, it is difficult lo imagine how an unbiased test could be carried out while the development was going on: VA was put in the position of being both a contestant and a judge at the same time," OTA reported. "Compariaon.o are best made before alternatives have been selected." The report recommended that Congress )earn from current decisions and ensure that options for the next generation of VA hospital computers be completely reviewed a.nd tested before moving ahead on any one strategy. "In this case, VA management has made up its mind quite firmly in favor of DHCP, and this decision is not unreasonable in the short run," the OTA report found. "It may be wiae, in this cue, lo let the decision stand, but alao lo create conditiona under which future deciaiona mwot be based on a thorough and unbiased examination of alternatives." Easily Upgraded While OTA aupported continuing DHCP over the short haul, the reviewers concluded Lhat the system could not be easily upgraded lo incorporate unforeseen medical or technological advances. The report also noted concern among OTA reviewers that DHCP's order-entry/resulto reporting function, which is used lo tranomit lab information lo hoepital wards, is loo clumsy and slow. Additionally, t!lr VA has failed lo con duct a risk assessment of the system lo de termine DHCP's security vulnerabilities, OTA reported. Lastly, OTA pointed to poaoible integration problema with the loading of the remaining DHCP moduleo. FTS SWITCHES tram Page 1 gel them up and running," he said. The GSA action in making the lease awards has fueled further speculation that the installation of ITS 2000, already slowed by several protesls and bid deadline postponements, might be delayed consider ably longer than the 1990 date still adhered lo hy agency officials, The lalest stoppage is due lo an agree ment between GSA Administrator Terence C. Golden and congressional critics of GSA, led by Rep, Jack Brooks (0-'lexas), chair man of the powerful House Government Operations Comm1ttte. The agreement specifies that the original rrs 2000 procurement order will be split into two parts, allowing at least two prime contractors to provide the contract service~. At press time, CSA had not announced how it plans to make the division. Recipients of the competitively awarded contracts for leased switches and the locations in which they WlU provide service are: AT&T Co. Los Angeles, Kansas City, St. Louis, Chicago, Detroit, Bell Atlan1ic -Washington, D.C.. Philadelphia Patific Bell --San Francisco. Soulhern Bell -Allanto, New Or leans. e U.S. West Information Systems -Minneapolis, Seattle. GSA is now leasing equivalent services from AT&T in the same lo,c.1:1tions via :W day filed tontfa, Fiser said.

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Your desktop computer-thot little snitch-may be wotching you, telling your boss how productive a day you've had. lHSCOVl:R N~ ~I YClf-1{, IN l~UNT: ll_ Y i'l~O, llfJQ aEN BAD OR GOODt~ 11 t1 I IT KNOWS IF YOU'VE Worked hard at the office today, didn't you? Sure, but it says here that you also made three personal phone calls, spent two hours away from your computer terminal, and, when you were working, made six unnecessary keystrokes and 17 typos. Welcome to the age of the electronic supervisor. A new study by the federal of Technology Assessment re veals that the days of the clipboard wielding, finger-wagging office man ager may be coming to an end; running the show instead in more and more of fices is the see-all, tell-all computer. The study, commissioned by Con gressman Don Edwards of California. indicates that as many as 6 million work ers nationwide are now scrutinized bv computers for all or part of their work-1 day. Those whose jobs involve desktop : terminals are the most vulnerable: cen, tral mainframe computers keep track of I input speed, time spent working. mis takes made-indeed. every single key stroke. Bank tellers. mailroom em-, ployees. and other away-from-the-desk \\orkers ;.ire at risk. too: check-process ing machines and package-sorting bins are n, '" '.'cmg outfitted with comput, erized counters to determine how much work is done in an eight-hour shift. New technology has also led to abso lutely silent telephone monitoring that permits bosses to eavesdrop on tele phone solicitors and operators. Before long, the report warns. professional and managerial workers may be monitored as well. The report addresses a number of troubling issues raised by all this. in cluding the damage computer overseers could do to office morale. the possibility that the new systems could lead to worker stress and stress-related illness. and, most important, the question of whether electronic monitoring is an in vasion of employee privacy. of all the things we don't want. the last is a surveillance society. says Ed wards ... But it appears were headed m that direction."' Edwards has submitted legislation re quiring telephones equipped with snoop ing systems to emit a warning beep whenever a third party drops in on a conversation. But he believes many other bills will have to be passed before the plug can be pulled on computer supervisor, .. The problem is distressingly large. Edwards says ... At the moment it ap pears to be out of control."

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HORTH JERSEY HERALD & NEUS PASSAIC, N:J DAILV & SUNDAY 61,066 SATURDAY OCT 3 1987 BUfftfEUFS ~ XK Computer surveillance f n~, lJ ~DITOR!AL1 A.ltfCENT kovernment report enwhere employee morale dropped titled. "The: Electronic Supervisor: :and turnover rose to 80 percent after 'NewTechnology, New Tensions" electronic surveillance was institut claimsthat. computers keeping tabs ed. ori more than 7 million American. The report said that computer workers add to job stress and may monitoring tends to re~uce workers' lead.to,more frequent illnesses. "feelings of job involvement" and to Rep. Don Edwards, D-Calif., who increase managers' control over how requested the study, called computand how much work is done. "This er monitoring of job performance an lack of personal control, in turn, invasion of workers' privacy and a places workers at significantly greatthreat .to their dignity. Edwards said, er risk of ill health," the study con "We have occupational health and eluded. safety laws to protect workers' bod-It is legitimate for government to ies .No.w Co.ngress needs to respond protect people's mental health on to t~hnological threats to their dig-the job by protecting their privacy nity and privacy." and preserving their dignity. A sociAssuming the validity of the study ety that allows workers to be dehu by the Congressional Office of Tech-manized by employers is as ,nology Assessment, there is reason undemocratic as one in which the for concern.. Just as laws governing government exploits the people. But working hours and working condione study should not a law make. tions were needed to protect workers at the onset of the Industrial Revolution, new.-regulations maybeneeded to protect work'ers--tt' the computer age. Computers are used in some industries to monitor job production, use ot the telephone; presence at the work stadot.a and frequency of er rors:-Sucli on-the-job sttrvei'Hanceby a computer is most common in cleri cal positions where computer termi nals are used. But the report notes that the management technique is spreading to other, more complicated work. What causes worry is the damage such. job monitoring by computers can do to workers. In many cases the mere presence of electronic moni toring created stress, the report said. It cited one mail-order operation The use of computers is revolu tionizing many areas of our lives. 'J'heir benefits are countless-inclu iing steadily increasing gains in the productivity of workers who use them. And supervisors who use computers to depersonalize relation ships with. workers probably did so wjth other te~iq,1,4es before com puters came along. I Still, if the evidence is compelling that computer suveillance invades workers' privacy and threatens their dignity, as Edwards claims. Congress must limit the practice in a way that won't further strangle C.S. in dustries. Individual rights are so fundamen tal to our way of life, neither govern ment nor business can be allowed to trample them. ----

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~AD/0 CLIPS DATE TIME STATION LOCATION PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD AVENUE I LIVINGSTON I NEW JERSEY 07039 (201) 992-6600 I (212) 227-5570 I /800) 631-1160 :--.i(wember 15. 1987 11 :llo Al\1-12:lHl ~oon W\\'J 95U A.\.1 Detroit .'.'le\\S Rauio 95 Dave Ross reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER lll/6297 Y The 1:omputer you use l'an do a lot more than a,.:,:ept your keystrokes. Congress Offil'c> of Tc>chnologv .\s,c>,,mc>nt has just i..'omplc>tc>d a rc>port callc>d "The> Elc>l'tronic Supenisor: :---:c>w T cl'hnology. New Tensions." on the use of i..'omputers to monitor c>mployc>c>s. In ottices whc>re pc>oplc> type l'rc>dit card transactions into rnmputers. for c>xample. the computers don't just process the data. they keep track of ho" fast the employee typeu it in. .\.lanagement kno,, s how many transactions were pro.:essed per hour and the -:ost per keystrpke. But how far should this go'.' The computers coulu abo he programmeu to uete.:t "hen an operator lea,es the uesk or to examine an employee's typing rhythm to determine whether he's at his best that da\' or not. The report suggested that sin.:e te.:hnology \\ ill 1.ontinue to 1.hange. any l.l\\ s passed should be generi1. b,, s that define ,, orker's rights. Therc>s no federal le\!islation rid1t 1w,, sa, in\! that a data entl": ,,orker h;1s the ri!!ht to know he\ being m-onitored. .The federal report found no e, iden-:e l1f people a-:tually being fired by thc>ir nosc>y 1.'l1mputers. But some> l1rganiz;1tions think sud1 monitoring goes far beyond the> normal supef\i,ion ot \\l1rk ;ind they w:int limits. The Ccimmunications \\'c1rkers of .\meri1.a has started .1 -:amp;1ign -::tiled "Don't Bug \le." on hehalt ot 1.)perators .rnd -:usromer sen i-:e pet,ple ,, ith the phone l'l,mpany ,, ho are suh_iect to horh electronic e::i\'esdropping hy supef\i!'>ors and automatic supef\ision hy computers. They say the ,, ay to ~llfkf\ i!'>e employees is to disl'U!'ls !'ltanuard!'I ,, ith them tirst and not to start runnin~ !',Orne cfti.:ien...:, :,,~,fr,,.1re thc1t 1.u!l,:1.b inf,,rm.itiun L,ehind tl11.: t.:rrq1lu).:<:~ -l,.1\.'k .. Thi:-. i~ D.i,c R0Y:,. :-1 \\ ords l'lip~

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THE SUN BALTIMORE, MD. (MORNING) D. 221,941 SAT. 363,710 S.. 465.339 OCT 23 1987 monitored to the point of spiritual destruction ln 1930s and. refined to its ultimate by the 1960s.
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65 ARIZONA DAILY STAR TUCSON, AZ DAILY 75,955 FRIDAY OCT 2 1987 HC Electronic bosses ;_} ,, ~. >;)"\-, ; r -.~ ~--~ ~:.,.i. ... Qualltv s~m,filldet' Coinputel'surveillance ~-~----. Years ago, tJle t1rst computers-were en-. puter-fs blind to perhaps the most imporvisloned bJ&b-tech slaves time-saving tant work habits: patience. friendliness-. maclllnes that would free people for more persistence. valuable pursuits. What's happening, A smile just doesnf compute. tbougb.,. is the reverse. Computers do not Frighteningly, the number of "unbllnk-tree some-workers. They rob them of indiing eyes" is expected to gro-, as employers vidllallty and privacy at work. try to increase worker productivity Aooitt half~ of the 13 million Americans through such monitoring. '. ._ who work with computer terminals in their -This. despite evidence that surveillance-Jobs. laber under computer scrutiny. Com-, can. adversely affect work habits; studlesputen evaluate and even define work: have found that monitoring has increased standarils for groups as diverse as clericaf worker stress and employee turnover workers, telephone operators, groceryrates. Error rates aJsc> have increased. as store cashiers and management workers. workers struggle to keep up with their More than 7 million Americans now work electronic taskmaskers. under such Orwellian conditions, according Despite such damning evidence, the govta a recent government report. prepared ernment report failed to take a tough stand by the Congres:uonal Office of TechnoJoiY on computer surveillance. It noted simply Assessment that monitoring had "a propensity for re. The computer supervisor is the ultimate ducing working feelings of job involvement d~ionate-boss. It measures productlvand may in this way increase worker dis-ity narrowly, in terms of numbers: number. tress." of seconds taken to answer a telephone This lack of concern reveals a society call, number ot minutes away from a work increasingly losing its grip on the concept station 8IMl number of errors made in a of privacy. day. Along with increased drug testing, AIDS Evaluating an employee based on. electesting, background checks and the like, tronic analysis alone. is obviously fraught computerized supervisors reveal a numbed with potential for misuse or misundersociety tragically accepting surveillance as standing. For all its advances, the coma way of life.

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COHPUTERUORLO FRANINGHAN, 11A WEEKLY !25,000 SEP 28 1987 Bu~ ~----_QL,_ Computer monitoring seen as potential labor problem l,~ C/7 ef BY MITCH BETTS come under mcreasmg pressure cw STAFF to take action. WASHINGTON, D.C. -An es timated six million Americans have their work monitored by computer systems. a situation that could flare up as a major labor relations issue unless han dled properly by management, according to a congressional study released last week. "The Electronic Supervi sor," a report from the-1l.S.. Congress' Office of Technology Assessment (OTA), noted that many workers and their labor unions claim computer monitor ing is an invasion of privacy and increases job stress. Computer monitoring can take the form of electronic sur veillance of the keystrokes made by data entry personnel, moni toring the records of digital tele phone systems and spot inspec tions of personal computer diskettes. The OTA' s report concluded that the issue boils down to a bal ancing act between employers' rights to improve their facilities' efficiency, productivity and se curity and workers' rights to maintain privacy and dignity. The report hinted that unless managers defuse the problems, the federal government will "Electronic monitoring is most likely to raise opposition among workers when it is imposed without worker participa tion, when standards are per ceived as unfair or when performance records are used punitively,'' the OTA reported. A growing threat Rep. Jack Brooks (D-Texas) and Rep. Don Edwards (D-Calif.) re quested the study. Edwards said Congress and the state legisla tures should respond to the "growing threat" of computer monitoring. "With computers, employers can monitor the most minute de tails of their employees' lives on the job," including how long em ployees are at their workstations and how many keystrokes they make, he said. A statement by the Computer and Business Equipment Manu facturers Association (CBEMA), which stressed the positive as pects of computer monitoring, called the OT A report a balanced assessment of the issue. In its statement, CBEMA called for the "sensible use" of computer work measurement to avoid negative reactions by em ployees. SEPTEMBER 28,11987 HEUSUEEK NEW VORK, NV WEEKLY 4,143,252 OCT 5 1987 Bu~ -4859 --_QL t..-----------~~~ i 'Big Brother' in the Office I .,)..C(1V 1 warning: ydur computer may be watch-1 ing you. I For many American workers that's not just a paranoid fantasy. Last week the congressional Office of Technology Assess ment (OTA) re.ported that computers are oeing used to keep tabs on as many as 6 million workers, from government employees to bank tellers. In some cases, em ployers monitor productivity by program ming the machines to record how many keystrokes users make per hour. Comput erized phone systems track how many calls workers make or operators handle. 1 They can also be rigged to listen in on conversations. "It's Big Brother at its worst," says Democratic Rep. Don Ed-1 wards of California. Some industry spokesmen and produc-1 tivity experts contend that computer sur, veillance provides a useful, objective tool in measuring performance. But critics counter that monitoring is creating "electronic sweatshops" and adding to job stress. Edwards and Sen. Paul Simon, the Democrat-ic presidential candidate from Illinois, have introduced legislation that would curb one form of intrusion: the bugging of computerized phone lines. The measure would require that an audible tone signal when a line is being monitored. "Just because you get a job," says Edwards," doesn't mean you lose your constitutional rights." { --l

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PRESS-ENTERPRISE RIVERSIDE, CA SUNDAY 138,132 OCT 25 1987 Buzrf:f'ff ro Th*J.,dilemma of living wills and right tctdie Sooner or Y1ater, most of us face the dilemma of whether to allow a critically or tenninally ill Over 50 loved one to be maintained on life-support equipment or to with hold that support and let the person die. And many of us have put ourselves in the place of the paHarry Rosenthal !lent: to be kept alive by artificial means or to be allowed the dignity of a peaceful death? Three decades ago, it was relatively rare to be confronted with such a decision. But tile ad vances In life-sustaining medical technologies nave been dramatic and their availability and use have become widespread. Once"extraordinary" means of keeping a person alive have become com monplace. That raises profound legal, ethical and economic questions. Doctors. nurses and others who provide health care often seize on the distinction between withhold ing rnot starting) and withdrawing stopping) life-supports. Children of a terminally ill patient worry whether to subJect that ill parent to live on a machine. And they face the distressing dilemma of having to consider their own fi nancial future m making such a decision. Many people make such deci sions easier by signing a "Living Will" that spells out their choice about life-sustainmg treatment should they become incapable of chOosmg when the time comes. By last count. 38 states and the District of Columbia had enacted laws establishing requirements tor livmg wills. Three years ago, the House and Senate Aging Committees wanted to know the implications of these new technologies. The committees were concerned that elderly persons' rights as patients and dignity as citizens might be jeopardized by unwanted aggres sive treatment or m reverse by financial bamers to treatment. The ~ional Office ot Tech n~_Assessment completed that study recently and submitted a report or nearly 500 pages. "Many people belteve that life. whatever its quality. Is sacro sanct." the report says. "Under this view. tile poss1b1l1ty or sus ca1mng lite Jusunes. or even die t.ires. the use of all potentially effective means. "In contrast. many other people belteve that the present 3nd expected future quality of life are alld, even essential. cons1der .1t1ons m dec1s1ons about whether or not to apply 11/e-susramm~ ,rearments. Included with the report. which Is titled "L1fe-Sustammg Technologies and the Elderly." '-'US this !1st of principles for decI ,Ion-rnaking drawn up by the ,tudy's 20-member advisory board "An adult patient who Is capable of making decIs10ns has the right to decline any form of medical treatment or interven tion. However, an individual does not necessarily have a right to unlimited medical treatment or intervention." "Decisions regarding the use of life-sustaining treatments must be made on an individual basis and should never be based on chronolog1ca1 age alone ... How ever. said the panel. age may be taken into account in deciding what methods are appropriate. "Diagnosis alone 1s a poor cntenon for decisions about tile use of life-sustaming technologies. Because of tile great vanab1lity among patients with the same di agnosis. patient assessment must also include measures of function al impairment and severity ot illness." The ability to comprehend, remember. reason. and judge in formation sv-called wgnitive function -"is an important marker of the quality of life: IJsually, the courts should not be "making decisionsabout the use of life-sustaining technol ogies or for resolving the dilem mas these technolog1es may cre ate." There is little need or room for federal laws settmg out the starnng, withholding or stop ping of specific life-sustaining technologies. "There is a major need for a clear. workable definition of tile appropnate role of surrogates (people speaking for tile patient) In health care decis1on-makmg, including the nature of their re sponsibility or their su1tab1llty to make decisions: "There ts a need to recog nize that .1 process exists. or ,hould exist. for m3king dec1s1ons -1bout the use of l1fe-sustammg technologies .. A phys1c1an or other health professional who does not ''-Unt to follow the wishes of a patient "ho Is capable of making Jeri,Ions re~urdmg his or her treatment ,hould wrthdraw from rhm c::tse.'' "Soc1oeconom1c -.;t;,itus ,hould nor be .J harrier rn he3Ith cure. Incluct1ng l1fe-sustJinmg tn terver.r1on~ ... 'There Is -1n :mportant need f1lr education of \he pubilc Jnd heulth care pro,Iders reiiard mg the nature .Jn
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BURB,E./FS ). \ <:_-1 \ \ \ \ 1'15 I .. ROBERT C. COWEN ~. \ I IL ; Mappi,ng the Nation's Underseas Wealth FOUR years ago, when President Rea gan asserted U.S. sovereignty over the zone stretching 200 miles from the nation's coastlines, some observers compared the annexation to the Louisiana Purchase. The 1803 acquisition doubled the country's size. The offshore area, known as the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), is 86 percent as large as the nation's land area. As the congressional Office of Tech nolggy Assessment (OT A) emphasized in a study issued last July, it's time the United States found out what it has gained. Belief is widespread that the undersea territory, which was annexed in accord with com mon international law, has vast mineral riches that might make the country self sufficient in such critical elements as co balt, chromium, manganese, platinum, and gold. But just a "minuscule portion" of this frontier has been explored, OT A points out. "Little credence should be given to estimates of the economic value or tonnages of seabed minerals inferred by some observers." A host of military, bureaucratic, eco nomic, and legal problems are preventing the United States from learning details about the minerals in the EEZ. The nation needs a modem offshore minerals law that calls for an effective research and mapping program. Until now, the vision of a seabed bo nanza has been based mainly on specu-1 at ion fueled by a few intriguing discoveries. For example, crusts up to four inches thick containing manganese, co balt, nickel, copper, chromium, and plat in um are believed to cover tens of hundreds of square miles in places, espe cially off such Pacific islands as Hawaii. (Twenty-one years ago the Reynolds Sub marine Service Co.'s submersible Aluminaut hyped a manganese deposit off the southeastern United States by wheeling along an underseas "highway.") Scientists also know that the EEZ in cludes beds of phosphorite, useful as fertilizer, and "placers"-loose accumu lations of sand and gravel containing gold, ROBERT C. COWEN IS SCIENCE EDITOR OF THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR AND FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE NA TIONAL ASSOC/AT/ON OF SCIENCE WRITERS. ILLUSTRATION, PAUL MOCK /\ :--. .r .. ft,s high tim the United States 'learned Jww much wealth lies alnng the coastlines an the ocean fioar. platinum, and other metals. As OT A states, these hints of undersea treasure pose an "immediate challenge" to "gain a better understanding" of the sea floor and to inventory its minerals. Echo sounders and other modem instruments can produce comprehensive data banks. Computer processing can transform the data into detailed, three-dimensional, top ographic maps of the seafloor to aid pros pecting in addition to oceanographic research. The trouble is that such maps can also help enemy submariners figure out where to hide their craft. The navy has long wanted to keep underseas maps fuzzy. It has even suggested deliberately distorting the data in a random fashion, according to OTA. The government's civilian EEZ mapping and resource-cataloguing efforts to date hardly threaten the position the Depart ment of Defense (DOD) has taken. The most extensive work, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is just a small start. And the 10 or so other agencies involved with EEZ exploration are making matters more confusing. They don't always archive information care fully, so not all of it is readily available. Industry might have pressed harder for better mapping years ago if the economics of seafloor mining were more favorable. But the sea is generally a more severe en vironment in which to work than the land. "The commercial prospects for developing marine minerals ... appear to be remote for the foreseeable future," the OT A report states. This is especially true for min erals in the deep-water portions of the EEZ. Nevertheless, developing the capacity for mining is still important, in case po litical or military conditions suddenly change. DOD-which depends on equip ment that uses critical minerals-should encourage accurate mapping. In addition to economics, legal uncer tainties may be holding up the exploitation of EEZ minerals-and therefore forestall ing a big drive for thorough mapping. While the 34-year-old Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act ( OCSLA) now regulates EEZ rnining, it is oriented toward sulfur, oil, and gas because knowledge of hard min erals on the seafloor was scant when the document was written. Would-be pros pectors want regulations that address their interests in hard minerals specifically. Rep. Mike Lowry (D-Wash.) has intro duced legislation to do this. His National Seabed Hard Minerals Act would also start systematic research to map the EEZ and assess its mineral wealth. To assuage coastal states that might think they have a right to some of the action, the act would require that miners share royalties with them. The bill's fate was unknown as of mid-September. The Reagan administration, which dis likes the revenue-sharing aspect and some other provisions of the bill, opposes it. Through the Department of Interior, the administration has been finishing its own hard-minerals regulations. But since they will be based on existing law, they will not substitute for Lowry's minerals act. Like the Louisiana Purchase, the EEZ challenges the United States' capacity to plan ahead. Large-scale payoffs from EEZ minerals probably could riot come until the next century. But the country must start laying the legal and scientific foun dation for mineral exploitation now. D TECHNOLOGY REVJE~

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HOUSTON CHRONICLE HOUSTON, TEXAS o. ~.lY,041 SUN. t.118,679 OC1 2 \987 Pf!!i11EU.~~~ Congt'b\s~onal office suggests establishing oil floor price WASHINGTON (UPI) -A tort by said, has been "federal intervention" to floor, deliberately set below prices pre"It is therefore quite conceivable that congressional analysts raised the possi-stabilize domestic production. vailing at the time of enaction, designed the net domestic oil price could eventubilily Thursday that a "price floor" for "Advocates of governm~ction to to guard agl\inst future price drops and ally be lower than it would have been in oil as an alternative to controversial slow the decline in u.s. oifr orr
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THE ATLANTA CONSTITUTION ATLANTA, GA. D. 255,636 OCT 6 1987 Bu~MZU'S -V' OiJ-pri~ floor is worth a careful look. _, t .. +-'1'7 ~D:ro~kt The con ional Offi of Technology nasty side effects of a str import fee Assessment as crunc some num rs and such as inflation and job losses. And it extracted yet another option in the long might be more palatable politically to the struggle to-prevent Energy Crisis II. The import-dependent Northeastern states. idea is a variation on the import-fee theme Unfortunately, there is one thing the and'it is worth considering. floor would not do: It would not prompt us It would work this way: Instead of a plain import fee, Congress would establish a floor on imported oil, a provisional tax that kicks in when the price falls below a certain point A floor at $15 per barrel, say, would mean a $3 per barrel import fee should the market price fall to $12. Advantages? It would assure domestic producers of some stability. Investors will be. more likely to ante up exploration money if they are reasonably certain they will not lose tbeir shirts. Moreover, the floor would protect our industry from another predatory squeeze by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). If prices t~k a sharp dive now, OPEC could emerge with a drastically reduced roster of competitors. The cartel would then be in a fine position to spring a new price trap on Americans. The price floor might also reduce some to curbour appetite for this finite resource. That is a considerable drawback. Until we moderate-our demand for petroleum, we will always be vulnerable to the whims of outside suppliers. Lately, our willpower has been almost non-existent. In the first 1 O months of 1986, North America increased its use of heavy fuel oil: by 14 percent. Japan, meanwhile, reduced its use by 10 percent. A straight import fee no matter the market price would prompt us to stop fiddling and get ready for the inevitable reckoning. Oil prices will go UJt. The only questions are: I) When will they rise? and 2) Will we be prepared for the jolt? For now, the prognosis is anything but encouraging. A price floor and its likely stimulation of. domestic production would help. A straight import fee its downside notwithstanding would be better. But a compromise is better than nothing.

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SALES & HitRKETING HANAGEHENT NEW VORK, NY 16-TIHES/VEAR S0,000 SGNIFICANT .TRENDS OCT 11987 LOOSE THINKING ON THE SERVICE SOCIETY The popular rationale that airily dis misses manufacturing sector problems on the grounds that we are becoming a services society overlooks two salient facts: One, the manufacturing/services question is not an either-or proposition; two, service industries will face the same international competitive forces that have impacted domestic manufac turing. How. this flawed thinking bears on marketing is spelled out in a new re port, International Competition in Ser vices, by the CongressioruJ Office of, Te_chnology Asl?e@!nent (Qt A). "In ternational competitiveness m high-val ue-added manufacturing goods depends on knowledge-based services, says OTA. "To maintain a society with high living standards and large numbers of well-paying jobs, the U.S. must remain competitive in both high-value-added goods and knowledge-based servicescomputer software, engineering, bank ing and finance, and business services of all kinds. Domestically, as well as internationally, services and manufac turing depend on one another. Any view of the future that sees the ser vices taking the place of manufacturing has pushed the distinction between them too far. Competitive ability in pro ducing services has become a powerful factor in detennining international com petitiveness in manufacturing." Although the U.S. is well on the way to becoming the world's first ser vices society, with more than 70% of employment and more than half of gross domestic product services-based today, there is no assurance it will remain king of the hill. Countries the world over are trying to accelerate the shift from manufacturing to services and thus sharpen services competition on a world stage. Indeed, as the Hudson Institute observes in its Workplace 2000 study for the Bureau of Labor Statistics, "The shift to services has become so pervasive that it is a reliable barometer of the stage of industrial advancement that a country has achieved." The OTA study concludes: "Internationally, the U.S. maintains a competitive advantage in most services althouizh it varies a great deal among these industries." The future competi tive prospects of U.S. industry in world markets will depend to a great extent on information technology services. That's because, as OTA sees it, "tele communications and computer software are most important for U.S. competi tiveness in other industries. Multina tional integration depends on global communications. Computer software helps firms in all industries control costs and develop new business strate gies." According to OTA, U.S. leadership in data processing and information services will coutinue over the short to medium term. Telecommunications and software, however, "will be a good deal more volatile. As foreign software firms move away from custom pro gramming [and] cost pressures drive countries like Japan toward the stan dardized application packages pioneered by American suppliers. it could prefigure a challenge in computer soft ware not unlike past challenges in microelectronics." Benjamin Rosen. one of the com puter industry's savvier venture-capi talists, who was instrumental in the founding of Lotus Development and Compaq Computer, is not as dourful. Speaking at a Software and Data Ser vices Industry Investment Conference sponsored by L. F. Rothschild & Co. last month, he expressed doubts that Japan, despite its ambitious fifth gener ation computer project, will overcome its software weaknesses. "PC software is one of the few computer industry sectors that does not have to worry about a challenge from the Far East," he says. In the last analysis, and a point that is often overlooked, much of the U.S.'s competitiveness in world-based services will depend on its human re sources. As the OT A pointedly observes, "International competitiveness in services depends heavily on human capital. Production of knowledge-based services and goods requires skills and abilities, know-how and judgment, all of which will be supplement ~d but not re placed by emerging comi:,uter and tele communications technologies. To the extent that the U.S. labor force re mains a source of well-educated em ployees with skills needed by service firms, the nation is likely to remain internationally competitive in most of the knowledge-based services. Some are not convinced the critical human capital will be available. A report, Nurturing Science and Engi neering Talent, by the Research Roundtable, a forum of scientists, engi neers, administrators, and policy mak ers operating under the aegis of the National Academy of Sciences, warns that the U.S. "will soon face a potentially serious problem in the quality and quantity of technical personnel," the very people who are involved in the research and development that under lies our industrial strength. Noting that the number of 22-vear-olds will de crease 25% by the end of the century, the report contends "to simply keep up ,,.,,th the 1985 level of 22-vear-olds earning science and engineering bacca laureates, the degree award rate would have to increase by 30 percent by the mid-1990s." Achieving that increase, the report adds. will be extremely difficult because of "the shortages of competent science and math teachers in secondary schools and a disturbing lack of achievement of U.S. students in mathematics, a core skill for science and engineering.

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.... ~ew York Jersey Bight symbol of water woes _U' t_}C{l '1 8y Robert ngr~ ()ffi~ of Technology regions. WASHINGTON The New York-New Jersey coastal As;essmenl. says the research documented that the overall The marine experts say the New Yorit-New Jersey coast waters are among the nation's moot polluted, suffering from tie.:iTih of tiie nation's estuaries and coastal waters is "declining regularly receives industrial and municipal discharges, raw raw sewage, toxic chemicals, industrial waste, constrnclion or threatened." sewage, urban and agricultural runoff, sewage sludge, indus-, debris and other materials. The same study concluded that more damage will occur in trial waste, and construction debris. This summer, ha.pi\al But federal experts say the New Jersey-New York Bight, many estuaries and coastal waters around the country in the waste, garbage, lumber and other debris washed up on fhe which stretches from Montauk, NY., to Cape May, NJ, is not next few decades unless additional protective measures are shore and caused numerous beach cla.ings. alone. taken. In Puget Sound, scientists have found an area near Tacoma, ''The Bight symbolires all of the problem., faced by the Much of the str<'SS on the marine environment will come Wash, with high concentrations of toxic metals and organic nation's estuaries and coastal waters,'' says Howard Levenson, from continued development along the coasts, Levenson says. chemicals. And there are several hundred municipal and a congressional marine environment expert. Al-cording to the (',erums Bureau, more than 70 percent of the industrial pipelines discharging significant quantities of pollu-"The Bight is in the center of a highly urbanized and US population wiU live within 50 miJ,,., of the coastlines by tants into the sound. expanding area,'' Levemon says. "It gets every material possi1990. ble dumped or discharged into it. It is a microcoom of the The OT A study found there are more than 1,300 major problems occurring all around the country." industrial and almost 600 municipal facilities discharging Charles Ehler, directoc of oceanography and marine assess-wastewater directly mto the nation's estuanes and coastal Authorities have found diseases and abnonnalities, including liver tumors, in bottom-dwelling fish because of toxic contamination, and they have been forced to close large number of commercial shellfish beds because of the bacteria contaminament for the federal government's National Oceanic and waters. Thousands of industrial and municipal facilities also Atmoopheric Administration, agrees. dump contaminants into rivers that eventually flow into the lion. "There is a lot of factual inforn1ation that documents the estuaries and the ocean, and serious problems have been San Francisco Bay receives substantial pollutants from steady decline in estuaries throughout the country,'' Ehler says. caUS<.>d by contaminated runoff from farms and cities. industrial and municipal discharges and from the rivers that "It is not just New York and New Jersey. These problems are Besides the New York-New Jersey coast, scientists say drain pesticides and other contaminants from the agricultural OCL'llITing in m
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-TV CLIPS DATE TIME STATION LOCATION PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD LIVINGSTON I NEW JERSEY 07039 1201) 992-6600, (800) 631-1160 October 21. 1987 11:00-11:30 PM WJAR-TV(NBC) Channd Ten Providence. R.l. News Watch 10: The 11 :00 Report Doug White. co-anchor: ACCOUNT NUMBER NIELSEN AUDIENCE 10/6297 Y 95.000 Ocean pollution and the harm it l..'auses was the topic of discussion at today's session of the National Saving Our Ba~s. Sounds and Great Lakes Conference going on in Warwick. Patri1.e Wood. co-and1or: Emironmental Reporter Jett Lathum was there. He sa\'s those at the l..'onference saw some grim reminders of \\ h:H unchecked pollution c:iuses. Jeff Lathum reporting: The week-Ion!:! conference beinl:! held :it Our Lad\' of Pro,idence Seminar. in Warwick has 7rnracted t'l1\"ironri1entalists from all 00\'t'f the' countr.. and \\hilt' the setting may be plt"asant. the topi1: of toda~ s discussion was disturbing. How:ird Lt'\'emon from the' Offo:e of T t'chnolo~ .-\ssessment talked about marine pollution. Howard Levenson ( Offo:e of Te1:hnolo~y Assessment): l think some of the prohlems are--are ery apparent. We\e got a ge--1 think a general trend of de!:!red:ition in estuaries and co:1st:1I w:1rers :1round the countr.' :1s a whole. This is rt"flectt"d in a lot of difft'rent kinds of impacts that \\ t'\e set'n. induding dosures of shellfish beds in about a third of our productin: art'as around the country. Lathum: To help make his point. Levt"nson ::.ho\,ed ::.lides of fish kills. harbor :;luJge aml Ji:;ea:;eu floumler. BL!t perh:1ps no,, here h:.is the:: problem of marine pollution become more apparent recently than in '.\ew Jersey. Cindy Zipf ( Clt"an Oct'an .-\L'tion. :'.\i"J): In :\lay \\ t' ::.tartc'd off with sludge:' balls \\hi1:h ,,ere beige ball-type things--hair on the outside. fo.:al matter on the' inside. Then in June \\t' had heaches closinl:! hecause ot raw se\\agt'. Those--those he:ich closes continued rhrou!!hout the summer. but then in addition to that. in July ,, t' had--tht' dolphins bt"gan ,, ashing up on short'. Perhaps the most i~ual problem ,, as the bet,, een t,, o h undr~u .md thrt"e hunurt"d tons of hospital \\ask that ,,:1s--th:1t washed up along ~ew Jersey's heaches.

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UORCESTER TELEGRAM WORCESTER, 11A DAILV 58,199 110NDAV HOU 30 1987 !!_~ 262 PQ r~Medicare Mammograms i;)..'11'j .. fDIT_QRIAY Breast cancer is the second most frequent cause of cancer deaths among American women, with women over 65 at the greatest risk. Treating cancer is very costly. Those facts explain why a congressional agency devoted to financial analysis has recommended that Medicare begin paying for mammograms. The Office of T~h.m~lQ~.:. ~ent says that it would cost about $1.5 billion if every female Medicare patient had the screening test for breast cancer, but that as many as 5,200 lives could be saved. The report, commissioned by the Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources, estimates that about 30 percent of the women over 65 would actually take advantage of the mammograms, so the actual cost of detection would be about $185 million. In addition, early detection would save money by reducing treatment costs. Medicare, like many private health insurance plans. now pays for mammograms only when ordered for specific medicai-reasons, such 4as a lump in the breast or past breast cancer history. Only about 16 percent of the women over 50 undergo annual mammograms, which cost between $125 and $150 each. Yet risks of breast cancer increase with age. It will cause the deaths of 41,000 women of all ages in the United States this year alone. It is difficult to put dollar signs on lives or the agony of breast can cer patients and their families. But it does make economic sense for the health-care system to provide for early detection of breast-cancer while it is in the most curable stage. From a medical standpoint, mammograms can save lives. As a fiscal policy, the Office of Teclm.Ql.Q.fusayAssessment says Medicare's reto pay for mammograms makes no sense. The agency's recommendation on Medicare mammograms deserves to be considered by public and private health insurance programs alike.

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STAR and Tribune MINNEAPOLIS, MINN. D. 378.981 SUN. 616.248 NOV 27 1987 Mammograms under Medicare considered New York Times ~:2.97'/ New York, N.Y. Payment for mammograms of older women by Medicare would save hun dreds of lives and reduce medical costs for some women, a new con gressional study shows. But it ultimately would cost the Medicare system S 1.5 billion a year. The study by the Co~onal Office of Technology Assessment, con ducted for the Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources, con cluded that annual mammograms re duce by 20 percent the chances of an older woman dying of breast cancer. Medicare does not cover the cost of mammograms, but the study estimat ed that 30 percent of the nation's elderly women would undergo annual tests if the procedure were covered. About 5 percent of women over 65 ~ave annual mallJJ110grams, accord ing to the American Cancer Society. The study estimated that these examinations would result in earlv de tection of 2.500 cases ot "":.1st .i.n~.:r a year m the 1-:i._,,~ ,., .. ,~,<-:,undreds of Ii ves. But Dr. David Eddy, a Duke Univer sity statistician who worked on the study, said the cost savings from early detection in some women would be greatly surpassed by the overall expense of a screening program .. You have to screen an awful lot of ~ealthy women and you only get sav ings from those women who were destined to get the disease," he said. He said the incidence of new breast cancers in women over 65 was three per thousand. Eddy said Medicare records showed that there is a savings of $2,000 in medical costs when a tumor is detect ed before it has spread. Only if the savings for each tumor detected was 100 times higher would it be enough to surpass the costs to the Medicare system of financing extensive screening. Of course, Eddy emphasized, .. just because something doesn't save money does not mean that you shouldn't do it." Whether Medicare should pay for screening "is a value judgment," he said. Mammograms can cost from $40 to $200 or more, according to the Office of Technology Assessment. The tests, which use low doses of X-rays to find tumors, are recommended annually for all older women. The method allows radiologists to pinpoint tu mors when they are too small to be felt. All women with suspicious lesions in their breasts, however, must have biopsies to ascertain whether ':c '_ -;:o : e malignant. -\ mammo;:a!"1 ,:.:te<::.?d Sancy ~eagans breast ,an~er :a,; :,10nth.

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WhJ1-1JJ ~TDAJ ?o'T Coverage or Mammograms? IJ/~/8'1 -M...."-1! .. ewcare :_Agency SaY6 Deo,ths Could Be Cut 22% for 11.5 Billion a Year By Suaan Okie W~ ....... flllCS&affWrilH Providing Medicare coverage of yearly mammogram, for all women over age 65 could reducebreast cancer deaths by 22 percent by the year 2000, but would raise the cost of the federal insurance program by about $1.5 billion annually by that year, according to a new report by the congressional Office of Tech. nology Assessment. The OTA report. commissioned by the Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources. is the latest contribution to a debate over whether finding more breast cancers at an earlier and more curable stage would save money by reducing treatment costs. The report concludes that expanding Medicare coverage for the special breast X-rays would raise rather than lower health care costs, but would save about 5,200 lives a year if all eligible women had the test as currently recommended. Breast cancer is the second most frequent cause of cancer deaths in women, with approximately 41,000 women expected to die of the dis ease this year. It is 50 percent more common in women over 65 than in younger women, yet studies indicate those in the older age group are less likely to have regular breast examinations and mammograms. Because studies have shown that the test can reduce mortality by detecting cancers earlier than is possible with a physical examination, routine mammograms are recommended every one to two years for women over 40 and annuaJly for women after age 50~ Medicare does not pay for the test unless it is ordered for specific medical reasons, such as a lump in the breast or a past history of breast cancer. That is because the program, as created by Congrese in the mid-19608, was designed to pay for treatment rather than preventive care, said Ross Anthony, asso ciate administrator for program development at the Health Care Financing Administration. "There's absolutely no question from a medical point of view that this test is appropriate," he said. ... But let's face it, we're under a very tight budget situation today." Anthony said only about 16 per cent to 18 percent of women over 50 undergo annual mammograms to screen for breast cancer. The OTA report said it is unlikely that all Medicare recipients would have the test yearly. It estimated that if 30 percent of women over 65 on Medi care had the test annually, the death rate from breast cancer would be reduced by 3.5 percent in the year 2000 atan annual cost of about $185 million. which ia less than one-twentieth of 1 percent of total Medicare expenditures. The report said that the savings achieved by reducing breast cancer treatment COlt8 would be more than offset by the expenae of the annual X-rays and of performing additional tests, includin& biopeies. in approximately 2 percent of mammogram recipienta who have "faJse positive" results-testa suggesting that can cer is present when it is not. The Senate version of the recently passed bill on catastrophic health care coverage allows the cost of an annual mammogram to be counted toward an $1,850 annual cap on individual out-of-pocket health care expenditures. The House version contains no provision on mammograms, but a number of bills to ex pand Medicare coverage of mammograms have been introduced in both houses, according to Rose Kushner, director of the Breast Cancer Advisory Center in Kensington. Kushner said a mammogram costs an average of $130 in the Washington area.

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JOURNAL Of COHHERCE NB! YORK, NV DAILY 23,000 HONDAV HOIJ 9 1987 BU!j_~ELJ.E1S -ius Report Cites Lack
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Potential carcinogens are under regulated says OT A report Washington 6' a<. '1' 7 '1 A KIND of paralysis see"\5 to strike federal agencies when it comes to regulating carcinogens. According to a new report' by the congressional Office of Technology Assessment (OTA). regulatory agencies have set standards for fewer than half the chemicals listed in the government"s Annual Report on Carcinogens. Although Washingtons bureaucratic jungle ha; always made setting regulatory standards difficult. the report identifies new hurdles added bv the Reagan administration that have further ~lowed the process. Since 1978. the National Toxicology Program has been collecting data on potential carcinogens. So far. it has te~ted more than 300 compounds. and on the basis of interagencv discussions concluJe, that there is si'iificient evidence that some 1~8 oi these should be listed as carcinogen, m its :.mnual report. A staggenng alphabet ,oup of federal agencies is respon,ible for regulating the,e compounds. The Environmental Protection Agencv (EPA). the Food and Drug Administraiion (FDA). the Occupational Safety and Health Administra-tion (OSHA). the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA). the Consumer Product Safety Comm1s,ion (CPSC) anJ the Office of '.'vtanagement and Budget ( 0MB) all have a ';-ole in establi,hing ,afety guidelines for exposure to carcino genic ,ubstances. Overlapping jurisdiction, are not uncommon. EPA may ,et environ mental ,tandards for a particular ,ub,tance for emi,sion into the atmo,phere. but OSHA may have different standards for acute expo,ure in the workplace. Given the potential for bureaucratic tangk,. it 1, of little ,urpnse that .QB. found apparent gaps in regulator~ CLner age. A, an example. OSHA ha, determined that it ha, regulatory rc,pon,1biht\ tor l llJ carcinogen, li,ted m the rcp(>rt. hut ha, ,ct standard, for only l 7. Le,, than ,inc month after he hH1i-. ulfice. Prc,1dent R..:agan "gncd ctn c,..:cu tl\C urdcr r..:4uirmg O'.\tB to r<.:\IC\\ .di n<.:\\ r..:gulation,. and ,tat1ng that r..:guL1-t,1n ;1ct1on ,hall not he tak..:n unk,~ th.: put..:nt1al hcncfit, to "'ctct\ Im the rc~ul.1-uon ,1ut\\c1gh the potcnual c,1,h 1 he idea wa, to relic\ e 1ndu,tn lrom nccdk" mtcrfcr..:ncc from \\'a,h1ngton. hut cnt1c, havc ;1rgucd that not nnl\ Joe, th 1, ,I, m thc r..:gulatory procc,,. hut 1t 1, inapl'' 11-pnatc for 0MB to u,urp thc authont\ ,,t other fcdcral agcnc1c,. 1'.Ml 1'.wnch;,ch. pnman authur, ,t t1,, ld1'llflf~1ni:,u11l rn:ulut111i:1 ,,n 1rr1,i,:t t 'l ( 'l'J.!f.._ .. ,, 1 i1t,, ILLhnol,11!\ \, .. l,.,,m~nl ()f .\-KP 11--l: l ", '"''L'rl'T' Prmtin~ I 11111.~ "J,hm~tPn I)(
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HATIOH'5 HEALTH WASHINGTON, DC 10-TIHES/VEAR 29,000 DEC 11987 .OTA Hits Inconsistency in 'l~ffi~~~li~81!.!~.~!~!!?u~~ or ment recently report,ed to Congress these ingredients have not be can ~the manner in which carcinogens celed. are regulated -or ndt regulatedin The Toxic Substances Control Act this country is a maze of uncertainty, was pass~ in 1976 to regulate both variation and often inaction or ex-new and existing chemicals for toxic tremely slow action. ity. But only a small minority of new For example,accord!ng to the report, chemicals qave test information pre under the laws regulating pesticides, sented abot cancer, birth defects or about 81 active cancers causing ingremutagens in their premanufacture review notice In addttiorl, actions on elisting chemicals ltave been limited, under the act. Even though the statute pro vides broad authority to restrict or ban substances; the ErivironmeRtal Protection A.gency has banned or pro posed to ha$ only four substances. In other examples, since the passage of the Occupational Safety and Health Act 16 yeatJ,~, ~e_Naijona\ Insti tute for 6ceupational Safety and llull!dli1 -~~ined 71 different chemicals or protes~s to t>e oan,cer causing and has made recommencla~ tions on co,itrolling them. However, the Occupational Safety and Health A Set Many ... page 30, r Many Known Carcinogens Are .. ( Unregulated, Agency Stresses ... Am page 1. OTA, "Finally, there probably are Administration has addressed only 19 cases in which the necessary data of these. have been collected,the analyses have Most cases of cancer, the OTA notes, been performed, and the agency staff are not caused by exposure to the are simply waiting for decisions environmental carcinogens that these whether to regulate." agencies regulate. Lifestyle factors, What is the answer for the future? most obviously smoking, seem to be Congress might pass a law requiring the greatest causes for cancer. How-the agencies to regulate these carcino ever, OTA states, "those carcinogenic gens or at least publicly respond to chemicals that can be identified speinformation that a substance is a car cifically and can be controlled as imcinogen, OT A says. portant for those very reasons: they On the other hand, says OTA, "Conare avoidable .... Furthermore, the po-gressional deadlines and mandated tential for introducing new potent carlists may force action, but also may cinogens is very real." divert regulatory agencies from In some cases where substances chemicals and regulations more in known or suspected to be carcinogenic need of regulation." are not regulated, (Yl'A points out, the The report is identifying and Regu regulatory agencies have determined lating Carcinogens," and it is for sale that the risks are low and that there is for $11.00 from the Government no need to regulate. In other cases, Printing Office,Washington, the agency is stil1 gathering toxicity DC20402-9325. GPO stock number is data and other information. But, says 052-003-01080-1. ; __ J

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-336 -H2 CHICAGO, IL WEEKLY 310,000 OCT 2 1987 .iuo!(U.:S HS \Insects found unlikely to spread AIDS / 'Th~gretical' possibility of transmission outlined Do insec~ transmit AIDS? of the "interrupted feeding" type of of HIV-transmission by insects. The report summary concluded that Probably not, according to a report retransmission, the report said, because the According to the report, 13 of the 76 concerns about insect-transmitted HIV cently issued by the l) .S.,._Qffice of Techinsect would have to transfer an amount AIDS cases reported in the area between infection "should be addressed through _n2logy Assessmen! _(OT A). of the virus sufficient enough to infect 1982 and 1985 had no identifiable risk studies of selected human populations." Acknowledging tnat the possibility is someone, and the amount an insect is factors, but 10 of these people died be-It recommended that surveillance ac-one repeatedly raised by members of the capable of carrying on its mouthpiece is fore epidemiological investigations were tivities take place in areas "where condipublic, the report emphatically stated only equivalent to about 'r'""'"' of a milli-completed. lions most conducive for insect transmis-that "there is no evidence that insect liter of blood. sion occur, such as in densely populated transmission is occurring." The report said that "only rarely does IN AN ADDITIONAL 17 cases, the only urban areas in the tropics or subtropics, It conceded, however, a theoretical the HIV-infected person have a blood virisk factor present was having been born with high percentages of HIV infections possibility of transmission, and outlined rus level that might contain enough infec-in Haiti. Added together, 39% of the 76 in the exposed population." the two methods in which biting insects tious HIV for insect transmission." cases had no known risk factors. It suggested looking for insect transmis-could transmit the human immunodefiThe city of Belle Glade, Fla. with its "However," the report states, "it does sion within households (looking at bed-ciency virus (HIV). high incidence of acquired immune definot follow that insect transmission must bugs and mosquitoes), in small neighbor-In the first case, a blood-sucking insect ciency syndrome and significant percent-be the cause." The findings also were hoods (looking at mosquitoes and biting "feeding" on an HIV-infected person age of HIV-seropositive individuals with consistent with sexual transmission, in flies), and among populations with heavy would have to reproduce the virus and no identifiable risk factors has been that there was an absence of infection in exposure to biting insects, such as mi-inject it into uninfected people it subse-mentioned repeatedly as a possible site younger and older age groups. grant farm worker~. quently bit. Diseases such as malaria are known to be transmitted in this "biologi-cal" fashion. In the second instance, the bloodsucking insect would have to begin "feeding" on an HIV-infected individual, get interrupted, and quickly move on to another (uninfected) individual, transfer ring the fresh (and infected) blood. THE OT A STUDY said experiments in which insect cells were cultured with HIV and fed high concentrations of infected blood have indicated that the AIDS virus does not multiply in insects. If any such HIV transmission does occur, the study said, it would have to occur during the "interrupted feeding" mode described, as opposed to the "biologicdl" mode (i.e., the method in whilh mal,iria is transmitted). There is an extrf'mely low probability

PAGE 97

~rm tf urk Qttty wrilnuu NEW YORK, NEW YORK D. ?t.500 SEP 17 1987 &frtes C-01lgI'9 Swats Mosquito-to-Man Theory Of AIM Infection-'Extremely Improbable' ~1-\,v 1 ment and released today, was based on BY ROBERT FuRLOW a July meehnn of 18 scientists involved 771r~J',ws --e in the is.,ue, including two Florida WASHINGTON, Sept. 16 It is "extremely improbable" that AIDS can beS(X-ead from penlOD to person by IIl09QUitoes, a study prepared for Con gress reports, but it sugested further research into whatever possibility there might be. The replXt, prepared by the 4m:_ gressgal Offic;c of In:buokv ASll'l'Ee ~--~-. -------.-..-. ~--! 1 I researchers who have suggested that AIDS -acquired immune deficiency syndrome probably is transmitted by mosquitoes. The study quoted objections by Marie Whiteside and Caroline codirectors of the Institute of Tropical Medicine in NorthMiami Beach, Fla., to previous dismissals of their contention that mosquitoes have contributed to a an:enaation of AIDS cases in and around Belle Glade, Fla. However, the new report did not embrace their arguments either. It said, in line with declarations by the federal Centers for Disease Control and the U.S. surgeon general, that for the AIDScausing virus "the major routes of transmission. in the United States are clearly related to sexual practices," to intravenous drug use or injections of blood or .blood products or to infected mothers in the cases of some infants. Experiments designed to show whether the AIDS virus known as "haw that it is theoretically poaib)e," the study said. However, so many conditions would have to be present that "the probability of insect trailsmission. of HIV is ex tremely low," it said. Other studies have noted that no cases of such spread have been proven. The new report said, "If insect transmission is occuning at all, each case would be a rare and unusual event" It said that no HIV virus replication takes place in mosquitoes, meaning the only infected blood the mosquitoes could pass along would be the small amount on their mouth parts, or per haps regurgitated blood Also, the report said, "feeding exper iments show that detectable levels of HIV are present in mosquitoes and bedbugs for a short period of time." In experiments, ~er of infection has not taken place despite the presence of detectable levels of HIV in these insects [even though] the feeding exper iments generally involved HIV concentrations much greater than would be achieved under natural conditions of feeding on HIV-infected humans. "While the data from insect studies indicate insect transmission of HIV infection is extremely improbable, situations may exist in which some insect transmission might occur," it said Human Immunodeficiency Virus, or "If so, insect transmission is likely to filV can survive long enough in a occur in limited areas with unusual blood-sucking insect to be transmitted environmental characteristics."

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Office of Technology Assessment examines dramatic impact of advances in science and technology on constitutional principles and takes a long-range look at current and possible Mure advances. Page7

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[Ip! Atlanta Jlournal .~TL.J,NTA, GA. D. 185,375 Bu~Eu.E'S Report: More Agent Orange studies pointless By Steve Sternberg l, '!, ):): Sc1ence1Medtcine Writer ,, \ A new congressional review of Agent Orange, the herbicide sprayed over the Jungles of Vietnam, con cl udes that so few ground troops were exposed to the chemical that further studies of their health would be pointless. The review by the congressional Office of Technolog}'__ Assessment ( o:r A Us the latest in a flurry of controversial studies conducted two decades after the spraying began and eight years smce 250,000 veter ans claimed m court they were sick ened by the chemical and entitled to compensation. The OTA assessment supports a recent study by the national Centers for Disease Control (CDC) that con cluded the agency could find few veterans who had been exposed to excessive levels of Agent Orange. The oft-delayed CDC study, mandated by Congress 10 1979, found no difference between Agent Orange levels 10 Vietnam veterans and veterans who never were in Vietnam. The COC report also concluded that the agency could not carry out a large-scale ep1dem1ological study because it cannot find enough veter ans who were exposed to the herbi cide, and that levels of dioxin found in the veterans were lower than federal health standards. The study, based on review of the veterans' rrulitary records, ltin dled new controversy among veterans' groups and 10 congressmen [ illU'.!.i-JlirJttmtr :IE.'/ :,,E,:;13 ,~ ~:,: 13 3,:-.r ~u:J. ~1, SEP 30 1987 fl.f{E,~fU.FS The CDC report is convincing evidence that there was little exposure among the vast majority of Vie_t nam veterans. What we're saying to Congress 1s the study they mandated in 1979 is not an impor tant question any more. who already have written outraged letters demanding more research. "The only thing the COC is say ing is that the one way it tried to find people who were exposed to Agent Orange didn't work," said Barry Kasinitz of the Vietnam Veterans of America. "There are other models out there: not trymg to use them doesn't make sense." But Hellen Gelband, author of the new 10-page OT A review, said the American public should be told: "There cannot be a general study of Agent Orange effects on ground troops. "The assumption that a lot of people had a lot of exposure just doesn't hold up," Ms. Gelbaod said Tuesday. "The CDC report is convincing evidence that there was little e:r~ sure among the vast majority of Vietnam veterans," she said. "What we're saying to Congress is the study they mandated in 1979 is not an important question any more." Ms. Gelband noted, however, that other questions about the health effects of Agent Orange may yet emerge. Hellen Gelband Office of Technology AHesamanl The CDC study focused on more than 573 men who were likely to have severe exposure to Agent Orange, according to their military records. The congressional agency called the COC's research "convincing well-designed and well-car ried out" "In both groups, the levels are generally within the 'background' range expected in the U.S. popula tion," said the OTA review, obtained Tuesday by The Atlanta JournalConsutution. Rep James Florio r.D-N.J l has charged that the COC spent. $63 mil lion on a study that was mconclu sive. However, Don Diefenbach. an agency spokesman, said the CDC spent only $7 .5 million on the expo sure study of a total of $40 mil lion that the agency has received for exhaustive studies of the "Viet nam Experience" and its effects on veterans' health. In the meantime, IO congressmen have petitioned the Atlantabased agency to find other ways t~ study d1oxm's effects on veterans health. But Diefenbach said the dec,sion to comm1ss10n future studies rests in the hands of the adm1mstra t,on s Domestic Policy Council and Con gress. Agen~ 9Fange study is unfeasible, report says o 1987, The New Yoril: Tim WASHINGTON A congres s10naJ agency has agreed that no lar1;e-scaJe study of the effects of Agent Orange on ground troops in Vietnam can be conducted because too few troops were actually exposed to the chemical. That Judgment by the C.mgres-_ ~ional Office ,,f Technology_ :\gsessment concurs with one -reached las month bv the federal Centers for Disease C.mtrol. The CDC had been tr.,ng to ,unduct a congressionallv irdered study of .-\mencan ground troops who might have come into con~ tact with the chemical. .\11 the existing data support the fact that most round troops in Vietnam did not have heavy Agent Orange exposure, and that those who might have would be exceptions," the technology oifice said in a report to Congress. "No future studies should be contemplated without a clear acceptance oi this. If studies are proposed, they should be narrowly focused on specific. testable hvpotheses and cannot have the aim of generalizability to all or most ground troops."' the report said. The technology office had been ordered to monitor and revlew the vanous federal mvest1gat1ons mto the effects of Agent Orange. including the CDC's efforts to conduct a large-scale study of ground troops. The technology office's review of the CDC's most recent findings was delivered to congressional leaders late last week. Agent Orange was a herbicide sprayed by G.S. forces in Viet nam to defoliate jungle areas used by \'iet Cong guerrillas and '.'iorth Vietnam forces. Dioxin, a contaminant of Agent Orange. has been found to be h1ghJv toxic in some laboratorv anim81s but experts disag-ree about the threat :,J f1:1rnans bv low levels ,if dioxin L'nntaminat-ion. The Environ mental Protection Agencv classi ties dioxin as a posS1blehuman .:arcinogen. The technology ()ffice endorsed l small-scale studv bv the CDC of iround troops t-hai conc!eded that no large-scale study was pos sible. Scientists measured the levels of dioxin in the blood of ',~1 \'iet nam veterans and in ~8 ,eter;rns who had not ser.ed m \:etnam. according to an analvsis th,n is almost complete. .\s it turne ,1,.pr. the amount ,}!: ri11ixir. :, .!~ri. .n individual \'ielr:r1m.., e'.er:1:-:~ ..::ner:iHv hnre n1. relatHJ!l ~!) >IJ!r estimated expo:::ure tu r~.e, ~::11-cal.

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... ARTHUR OCHS stJLZBBRGBR. Publia/wr ,,.,--MONDAY, NOVBMBBR_ 3'. 19M / MAX FRANKBL. Ezutiw Editor ARTHUR GELB. M"""6in6 Editor / lbt Jt\tJ Uork lmtts JAMBS L. GREENFIELD, A#iNMl M"""6in6 Editor WARREN HOGE, hai,tant Manain, Editor JOHN M. LEE. Aaiatant MGNllifll Editor ALLAN If; SIBGAL.Aaiatant~Editor JACK Editorial POl}II Editor LBSLIB H. GBLB. /Nputy &litorial I'D# Editor FOfMIIINin 1861 ADOLPH S. OCHS.Puilliwr 1896-19"6 AJl'fttUll HAYS SULZBBRGER,Pllblwler 1935-1961 ORVIL &. DRYPOO& Pr,l,lu/wr 1961-1963 A. M. ROSENTHAL, Aaociau Editor ARTHUR OCHS SULZBERGER JR..Aaiatant /lublulwr LANCE R. PRIMJ8, &. V.P, Gawral Mana,er RUSSELL T. LBWIS. Sr. V.P., Circulation BRICH G. LINKER JR., Sr. V.P, Adwrti,~ J, A. RIGGS JR., Sr. V.P, O,,.,Otiotu HOWARD BISHOW, V.P,EmploYffRdatiotu JOHN M. aBRIBN, V.P., CJntrolJn BLISB J. ROSS. V.P, Sy,-.. A Treacherous Paradox: AIDS Tests Present tests for the AIDS virus antibody are highly accurate. Yet if applied to the population at large, they could falsely brand nine people infected for every true case identified. The President's AIDS commission had better be sure it understands this treacherous paradox if it intends to recommend the widespread testing favored by some Administration officials. Applied to groups at high risk for AIDS, like gay men.and drug abusers, the tests are highly reliable, and the minute number of false positives is dwarfed by the large number of true positives. The testing of prostitutes, as suggested last week by Stephen Joseph, New York City's health commissioner, is worth considering because 20 to 60 percent may be addicts, and the proportion of false positives would probably be minute. But that's not true of groups at low risk, among whom the very small number of true positives can easily be less than the number of false positives. If a low-risk group -like blood donors in Peoria, for in stance were screened for AIDS by the Elisa test, with its positive results confirmed by the Western blot test, 89 people out of 100,000 would be labeled as carrying the virus. But the real incidence of AIDS infection among this group probably is 10 per 100,000. The tests would miss one of the 10, catch the other nine and falsely describe 80 other people as carriers of the virus, according to new estimates by Lawrence Milke of the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment. Such scree"1iing programs can easily do more harm than good, needlessly devastating dozens of lives for every case of infection detected. The Army has been testing military recruits, a low-risk group, for two years. Its chief tester, Col. Donald Burke, believes that the rate of false posi tives is less than one in 100,000 people tested. At a recent Congressional hearing, Colonel Burke urged mass screening to identify almost every infected person in America. But t;lle Army is able to insist on unusually rigorous standards from its testing laboratories. States and local authorities setting up mass screen ing programs would reap many more false posi tives. Not only is the Western blot test for AIDS anti bodies very difficult to perform, but there is not yet a generally agreed way to interpret jts results. The slightest inaccuracy or sloppiness -a notorious problem with medical laboratories quickly leads to more false diagnoses than true. Commercial laboratories recently given nega tive samples to test by the College of American Pa thologists reported nearly 2 percent as positive by the Elisa test and 5 percent as positive by the Western blot. This joint error rate, according to the Office of Technology Assessment, means that in screening a low-risk population, up to 90 percent of people confirmed by the two tests as infected will not be. People infected with the AIDS virus risk loss of jobs, insurance and housing. What responsible government could assume the burden of falsely telling nine people they were infected for each true infec tion identified? The cost of screening low-risk popu lations could be over $50,000 for each true positive detected. In states that seek to reach infected indi viduals for counseling, there is an innocuous and cheaper alternative tracing the sexual and needle contacts of those already diagnosed. Several members of the President's AIDS com mission have indicated a predilection for testing various groups at low risk for AIDS. One, Cory Ser vaas, pressed the American Medical Association last week to say why it wasn't urging doctors to test all their patients. If the commission advocates widespread screening without insisting on far more accurate testing than is now available, it will create a program for shattering more lives than it saves.

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Devastating findings Withpublic-health officials and politicians thrashing out who should be tested for infection with the AIDS virus and how the test results should be used, the accuracy of the test itself has been nearly ignored. But last month, a study by Congress's Office of Technology AMess-~J,roke this drought of informa uon. Using data from the College of American Pathologists, the study found that the tests can be very inaccurate indeed. For groups at very low risk for AIDS-people who don't use drugs intravenously and don't have sex with gay or bisexual men-9 in 10 positive findings are so-called false positives, indicating infection where none exists. For high-risk people, on the other hand, the test produces false negatives about 10 percent of the time, meaning that 1 in 10 of these people are told they're not infected when they are. The main reason for the inaccura cies, th,~found, was that many labs perform the Western blot-the second of the two tests routinely used to detect AIDS infection-very poorly. Says the OTA's Dr. Larry Miike,, who conducted the study: "Many labs are doing a good job, and a few bad labs may be causing the problem.'' Because some 7 percent of the U.S population has gotten the test, the study suggests that hundreds of people, possibly thousands, believe they have the virus when they don't, or think they're not infected when they are. Says Dr. Mervyn Silverman, pres ident of the American Foundation for AIDS Research: "These mistakes can have devastating emotional and pub lic-health consequences.'' Large state run and accredited labs that do thou sands of the tests are very reliable. Even so, health officials say the OTA study strengthens the argument against mass, mandatory AIDS screening, because of the risk of error. If you plan to get the test, ask where it will be processed. If you've already been tested. and your result falls into one of the OTA's problem areas, you may want to contact the doctor or clinic that did the test to discuss its accuracy. U.S.NEWS.& WORLD REPORT, Nov. 23, 1987 ---.... ,-

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NEIISUEEK NEW YORK, NV WEEKLY 4,143,252 OCT 26 1987 &e!1'ew -4859 DL Bad AIDS Test? G...l.f 7 V The Reagankdministration's I call for routine AIDS testing of low-risk groups-such as hospital patients and couples seeking marriage licensesw1!1 receive a major setback this week on Capitol Hill. A new study by the Office of Technology Assessmerif.tooe released at House subcommittee hearings, raises serrnus questions about the reliability of AIDS test ing by commercial laboratories across the country. If mass test ing were begun now, according to OTA's analysis of the labs' performance ratings, nine out of 10 low-risk individuals notified they had tested positive for AIDS actually would be free of the antibody. The data is '"over whelming," says a subcommit tee statfer familiar with the study. Thesubcomm1tteechair man. Democratic Rep. Ron Wyden of Oregon, plans to explore opt10ns for tightening federal regulat10n of AIDS testing procedures. U.lJt :WasiJitt!\bttt l",faat WASHINGTON. D. C. 0. 748.019 SAT 7fl3.6211 SUN. 1,073 U OCT 27 : ~. J 7 f ,! ,) B~ Study Faults Labs' Accuracy In Testing for AIDS Infection -1 --..._ IJ' By Susan Okie Ji ,.i:.mgt,.;n r'.,~1 ::i....r. Wn:er L aboratones testing blood for evidence oi AIDS have such a high error rate that in some low-risk groups, nine out of 10 positive findings would probably be wrong, a new government analysis has found. Such a !ugh rate of these so-called "false posit1ves-in which people without the AIDS V111lS wrongly appear to have it-would cast grave doubts on the reliability of massive screenings. The analysIS was done by the congres.;;1onal Office of Technology Assessment and presented last week at a hearing of the subcommittee on regulation and bu.,iness opportunities oi the Hou,e Small Business Committee. It was based f,n rei:ent re~ults cf profioency testillg 0i approximately 700 U.S. !abor;,,tones by the College of American Pa thologi,ts (C.\P). Rep. Ron Wydc111D-Ore.), .:!'iainnan of the subcomnuttee, said :n an lllterview that he found :he :.:.bs' error rates "mind boggling." In addition to the false positives, the data suggest that labs may be reporting falsely negative blood test results on as many as 10 percent of individuals who are really infected with the virus. "Both the fa: ;e ;:iositives and the false eg:1tives !1av,-inghtening social unplications," W ydcn said. False negatives are people who think they're well and spread L".e V111lS. False positives have the potential of just causing social chacs," becau.;e '1lllllfected individuals might base decisions about marriage, .:hildbearing and careers on an erroneous!} po~1t1ve test result. The standard blood tests currently available to detect infection with the AIDS virus are the enzyme immunoassay (ElA or ELISA) and the Western blot. The ElA, performed initially as a screening test, detects protein antibodies produced by an infected individual's immune system against particles of the virus, known as human unmunodefic1ency virus, or HIV. The more accurate and expensive Western blot 1s done as a confirmatory test If the ElA ,s positive. Poor-quality Western blots are the mam reason for the laboratories' high ialse-positive and falsenegatlve rates. Because donated blood is discarded even If positive only on the initial EIA test, these findings do not suggest that miected blood 1s any more likely than previously believed-1 in 10,000-to pass through undetected. When they are perfectly perlormed, both the EL.\ and the Western blot are highly sensitive, providing positive results in miected indi,1duals in 99.6 percent oi cases. They are also highly specific, gi,,ng negative results in uniniected persons in at least 99 percent of cases. But the pathologists' \ PERCENT OF POSITIVE TEST RESULTS LIKELY TO BE 'FALSE-POSITIVE' GROUP IDEAL ACTUAL TESTING TESTING QUALITY QUALITY HIGH-RISK (Urban 0.04% 0.79% gays, I.V. drug users) TEXAS MARRIAGE 06 96 LICENCE APPLICANTS MALES IN 30 34.9 MILITARY FEMALES IN 7.6 59.3 MILITARY U.S. BLOOD 11.1 69.0 DONORS PEORIA, ILL., 33.3 899 BLOOD DONORS NOTE: The lokelohood of a false IJ()SltJVe test result is greatest an groups with a low incidence of AIDS 1ntectJon. SOURCE. Office of Technology Assessment proficiency testing program, in which laboratories were sent a series of "unknown blood samples to test, showed that the error rates in laboratories around the nation are considerably higher than these ideal figures, especially for the technically more complicated Western blot. The CAP' s proficiency testing of laboratories during the period from July 1986 through June 1987 showed that the overall false-positive rate for the Western blot was 4.7 percent. The theoretical false-positive rate, if the test is properly perlormed, is 0.5 percent. The laboratories' overall false-negative rate was 9.3 percent, compared with a theoretical false-negative rate, if the test is properly perfonned, of only 0.4 percent. Some laboratones aclueve performance standards close to the :deai rates, while others have even iugher error rates than the averages cited Ill the CAP data. But consumers having the blood tests, and doctors ordering them, often have no way of Judging an individual laboratory's performance, the subcommittee was told_ In large-scale AIDS testmg program,. false-positive results make up a greatec proportion of all positive results when the group being tested is at low ri,k oi infection with the V111lS. In contrast, false-negative results assume greater unportance when a high-risk group 1s tested. The OTA analysis used the laboratones' periorma:1ce record to predict the outcome oi testJn It 'n ,m different populations for whom some estimate of infecaon with the .-\lDS 1rc, was available. For example, Ill a program to test 100,000 lugh-nsk patients at a ,;,;xua.ll'transmitted disease cluuc. the OT..\ predicted that 984 oi an est1IIlatcd 10,000 infected individuals would be. rrussed because of a falsely negaave blood test, wlule 72 unmiected peop1c would test falsely positive. On the other band, if 100,000 blood donors were tested in Peoria. Ill., a group with a very low frequency of miection, 80 of the 89 pos1ave blood tests, or 90 percent, would be false positives, the OTA analysis predicted. Other experts te,mf;,ng before the ,ubcomnuttee echoed the concerns raised by the OTA report. Diiferem laboratories use different cntena to identify a pos1uve W ,;stem blot, and national standards have not been established for the test', periormance. interpretation or quality, said J=es R. Carlson, director of the .-\lDS V l!1.IS Diagnostic Laboratory at the L' ruvers1ry of California at Davis. Of 19 commercial laboratories sent "blind" samples by the U.S. Army to test their performance uf the Western blot, l 0 failed the test, some oi them repeatedly, said Col Donald S. Burke, who directs the Army's mv screening program_ Most doctors who order AIDS blood tests assume they are accurate and know little about variations Ill laboratory performance, said Patncia Watson .\tartin, director of product development at Epitope Inc., a clinical laboratory and diagnostics firm based in Portland, Ore. "Because the opporturutles for makmg profit from HIV antibody testJng are ,;o vast .. we must act qwckly to ?Ut controls into place to insure the quality of testing," she told the subcomnuttee. Wyden said he plans to press for stronger federal oversight of the rapuily growing HIV-testing industry. "You can be pro or con testing, but as a prerequisite to a national testing policy, we're going to have to deal with this accuracy issue, he said.

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WALL STREET JOURNAL CHICAGO, IL Midwest Edition D. 547,190 OCT 21 1987 Ji:F AA 's lnspedion Program Remafns :'.Inadequate-and Outdated, Agency Says _: 0~7Zj By LAURIE McGINLEY the agency has beefed up its inspections of Staff Reporter of THE w ALL STJucrr J ouBNAL airlines and increased its inspector work : WASHINGTON-The Federal Aviation force Administration's airline-inspection proSince the end of 1985, he said, the : gram, overhaul~ in ~ent years to damp agency has conducted about 30 in-depth iB :criticism, remains inadequate and. outspections, including one of Eastern Air. dated, according to a congressional lines that resulted in the airline's payment : agency. of a record $9.5 mill1on fine for alleged : Nancy Naismith, program manager at safety violations. In addition. he said, the the Office of Technoltfe' ... !!!!:_l?ld number of inspectors has risen to about a House panel that e FAA's ~ti~n 1,900 currently from 1,475 two years ago program has failed to adjust to a ~or m-The earlier actions came partly in re?ustry change: the ~e by many airlines of sponse to congressional criticism that the contractors for mamtenance work. FAA had allowed the size of the inspector ''Most Qf.QT,.~on_cerns about the ad~ work force to shrink at a time when the quacy of FAA mspect1on programs aren t number of carriers w;i.s growing because I : new; they have been well documented," of deregulation. ,/ _J she said. "Unfortunately, they persist de-___ y spite public airing." : The technology office, at Congress's re : :quest, is investigating whether federal aviation-safety policies and regulations are adequate. The project won't be completed until next sprtng, but Ms. Naismith gave '. .the agency's preliminary views on the fed eraJ inspection program at a hearing con. ducted by the House Public Works and Transportation Subcommittee on Investi gations and Oversight. Ms. Naismith told the lawmakers that since airlines were deregulated, many car riers, to reduce costs. have contracted ~th other airlines or maintenance companies to perform maintenance. Because of that, she said, ensuring the quality of maintenance is more difficult for the airlines because "the companies PtOviding maintenance don't have primary re sponsibility in the case of an accident or violation of safety standards, so they may not have the same motivation to do the highest quality work." Moreover, she contended, the FAA's inspection program hasn't adjusted enough "to assure that the federal role is respond ing to these industry changes or is meeting new needs." Ms. Naismith said that FAA inspection procedures, standards and record-keeping vary from region to region. In addition, she said, the FAA's training program for inspectors, centralized in the FAA facility in Oklahoma City, is "widelx considered unsatisfactory. But FAA spokesman John Leyden de fended the inspection program, saying that

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THE KANSAS CITY STAR KANSAS CITY. MO D. 220.7~.q S. 1~ 1~7 NOV 4 1987 /!f!!J.~ELLE'S :Breast exams ;:are proposed ~forMedicare ;'BY The AsS()!:ia~ Press (y,)(/] ,/ ;w asliington-A House sub. committee chairman : says the government should start of(ering breast can cer screening to Medicare partic ipants even though ~e estimated it would cost $200 million a year. Rep. Pete Stark, Democrat of California, chairman of a Ways and Means health subcomittee, said Tuesday that it's time for Medicace to start covering some preventive health care s~rvic_es. ,,He bas introduced legislation that would. add mammography Jcreenings to the M_edicare pro; .gram. ,, An official of the Office of :. Technology Ass,essmenfesfimal-=7eodd, D-C~nn., suc~eedjust-completed study by the save the government money ed in amending the Senate's cata Offlce of Technol~ Assessment, The costs of preventive health strophic health bill three weeks a research ~rm of Congress, conmay become a major roadblock ago to include Medicare benefits eluded that lf 30 percent of_ women for efforts to switch the focus of covering annual checkups to de-65 to 74 years of age receiv~ an-federal health programs from tect breast cancer, cervical cannual_ m_ammography screenmgs, simply paying for treatment to cer prostate cancer and glaucobeginning now, breast cancer also providing coverage for reguma' deaths would drop by more than lar medical tests designed to avoid 5,000 in the year 2000. Some costlier illnesses later on. The fate of these preventive 24,000 women are exJ,t:.-cted to die For instance, Medicare has health measures now rests in the of breast cancer this year. been spendiug $1.5 billion yearly hanJs of a House-Senate cunft-1 But mammography screenings for heart bypass operations withence committee assigned to w11fk of less than one--third of women in out any debate over this coverage out differences in the searate this age bracket would cost Medi-Yet, attempts to extend coverage bills passed by eaeh chamber

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./ --BIOSCIENCE WASHDIGT0M, DC MOMTHL V 12' 000 HOllftlBER 1987 }lological diversity and public policy Recent report presents congressional options l:J.-9'7/ lot long ago the term biological diversity had meaning only to biologists. However, iferences, publications, and con mal hearings increasingly high:he issue, the term is gaining ition among policy makers as s the general public.1 Today, ical diversity means far more mpiy a tally of the number of md animal species. According 1gressional Office of Technolo (OTA) report released th,2 the term has become a ndenominator for various in nups concerned with the loss >;cal entities, including eco ,;pecies, and genes. Although ~ction is the most dramatt of this problem, it by no ;a complete description. Dilso includes variability within and among the ecological es in which thev live. ling to OTA, biological dienefits a varietv of interest These groups i~clude those d about genetic raw mateririculture and other commer,rises, those wishing to pre integrity of ecosystem ..1nd the ecological and evo-dynamics that support se interested in researching 1ty of life forms, and those thetic or ethical sensibilities loss of species. oad range of interests is 1thesix congressional com11 requested or supported study. The Senate and culture committees, for exconcerned about the nar gtnetic diversity for agri-ien 1187 I\ A major barrier to addressing the loss of biological diversity is the uneven quality of data on the topic culture and other commercial enterprises. According to Representative E. (Kika) de la Garza (DTX), Chairman of the House Committee on Agriculture, "we must be concerned about the preservation of the genetic pool that must be drawn on by plant and animal breeders look ing for improved performance." The Senate foreign rc.lations and House foreign affairs committees are worried that the loss of species and habitats in developing countries may have disastrous consequences for those nations' economic development. Biological diversity is essential to the economic development of the Third World, according to Repre sentative Gus Yatron (D-PA), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Human Rights and International Organizations, which has jurisdiction over global environ mental issues. Although most discussions of bio-1For example, a National Forum on B1od1ver my held last September in Washington. DC, sponsored by the Smithsonian lnsmunon .ind :--lanonal Academv ot Sciences, was well at tended .ind rece;ved considerable public1tv ,Bi0Sc1ence 36: ..,08-711; 715). The report, Technolog1es to .\lamtJm Btolog,cJI Dwersttv, 1s available for$ 15.00 from the US Govern~ent Prmnng Office, Superintendent of Documents. Washington, DC 2.lH02. Tel: 202.,'."83-,238. The GPO stock number 1s 052.-003-0105-. -. logical diversity focus on the tropics, the House Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries is concerned about the loss of species and habitats in the United States. The House Committee on Science, Space, and Tech nology is interested in the role US science and technology can play in conservmg biological diversity worldwide. The OTA study is more than a Nocturnal roosting aggregation of zebra butterflies (Helicomus charitonius) m Florida. Photo: James L. Castner. .A 709 I g h c 0 ;s l ()

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Rocky Mountain News DENVER, COLO. D. 327,357 S, 367,487 DEC 7 1987 Bu~EU.FS Federal government can enhance safety federal, state and local rules hinder government regulation of hazardous-waste shipments. That was the conclusion of a 1984 report by the Office of Technology Assessment, a non-partisan congressional agency. Two Colorado lawmakers have a plan to expand and rationalize the oversight system. For safety's saJte, legislation proposed by Sen. Tim Wirth and Rep. Ben Nighthorse Campbell deserves a sympathetic hearing. The issue hits home with special force in Colorado. Beginning next October, an estimated 1,200 truckloads of nuclear waste will move annually through the state on I-25 to a new "waste isolation plant" at Carlsbad, N.M, according to Ralph Knull, chief of tranportation utilities for the state Public Utilities Commission. U a national nuclear-waste dump is sited in Washing ton or Nevada, Colorado could become a cent:-al eastwest thoroughfare for dangerous substances. The state has experienced first-hand the threat in hazardous-shipment trucking. Three years ago a truck load of Navy torpedoes overturned at the Mousetra.,1 interchange at Interstates 25 and 70 in Denver. Emergency efforts were slowed because it was unclear whether the torpedoes were armed or not. Last session the legislature established a new pro cess for state-wide routing that will promote safety. But such efforts by individual states only go so far. Truly substantial risk-reduction will require a broader commitment by Washington as well. Wirth and Campbell want to establish certain nation al standards to supersede what Campbell calls ''a patchwork of state regulations." The danger is great 2nough to justify impinging on state autonomy e::pecially because so many of the shipments in ques tion move across state lines. Among the provisions in the legislation is a require r:;,::nt that truckers r-~ .. oroad range of hazardous ,1aterials carry detailed papers describing ~heir load ,:1d i1ow to handle 2mergenc1es. -:'':ere would also be new funding for training 0f ,T,ergency teams a pressing need. T"le measure would also require and help fund :he .:es1gnation by local governments of saie rou,es Jr:d parking sites. lt .s ,mportant that .,11y such r~quirement allow ior ::'.:ix::,~ 2m ::il ,::put: ,0cals know their ,eginns ;out ::t>E-s rnd obstacles best. Similarlv. in putting -s,!y :-:e., DJperwork requirements on shippers. Con~re:-:s ,i:ould go no further than necessity dictates. The Wirth-Campbell proposal recognizes Washing :.cms responsibilities in reducing the hazards in hazard ous-waste trucking. Congress as a whole should join in d, 1 t recognition.

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HOTEL VOICE NEW VORK, NV WEEKLY SEP 211987 -3220 ll!!limn H7-S~f fo';J of Polygraph Legislation The followi~g is the statement issued out of the New York State Attorney I General's Legislative Program. It is in support of polygraph legislation and it is published in connection with the most recent efforts in the New York State I Legislature to outlaw lie detector tests as a condition of employment (see Vito i Pitta's column). Members are urged to read it and contact their State Legis-1 lators to urge ful(support for enactment of the bill (A-6767). I Each year, hundreds, If not thousands, of New York workers are branded as liars and denied employment because employers use the inaccurate and intrusive polygraph to screen or discharge employees. Each week, the Department of Law receives several complaints from individuals who have been forced to take lie detector tests by employers or prospective employers or fired or denied employment for refusing to do so. In November 1983, the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment (OTA), after an exhaustive review of available data, concluded that "the available research evidence does not establish the scientific validity of the polygraph test for personnel security screening" and stressed its "special concern" that such screening may result in "the incorrect identification of innocent perl?ons as deceptive." The OT A report, which found accuracy rates as low as 17%, was the sixth congressional inquiry in the last 19 years to conclude that the polygraph's validity or reliability in differentiating between truth and deception has not been d~monstrated. The vast majority of courts refuse to admit polygraph reports as evidence. Twenty five states, including New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts, have enacted laws restricting employer use of polygraph examinations. The abuses inherent in the invalid test are illustrated bu complaints to the Oepart.rnent of Law: A woman with no criminal record was refused a job because, her employer said, the test showed she had a felony record; a long time store employee refused, along with JO others, to take a polygraph test. All Were summarily fir~d. She has been unable to find employment since becasue sn_e tp.ithfully replies in job appilcations that she was fired for refusal to take a polygraph test. Another woman morally opposed to drug use was denied employment because, according to her employer, the test showed her to be a heavy drug user. Frequently, thefts result in the polygraphing of several. employees, each of whom, or several of whom, are fired, though they could not More often, employees who are dismissed after taking a polygraph test are refused an explanation or an opportunity to review test results. A prospective employer might easily -if incorrectly-assume that the employee was dis honest and was thus terminated. Pre-employment polygraphs usually ask if the applicant has ever failed a polygraph exam and a "yes" answer generally ends the possibility of obtaining employment. Furthermore, as a Federal interagency and a 1977 Presidential Commission have already recognized, the use of the polygraph "is an unreasonable inva sion of personal privacy ... Employers who use polygraphs as a screening device are not interes~ed in "lie detection" as such but in a prospective employee's background. Congressional reports have warned of the "inherent chilling effect" of the examination and complaints to the Department of Law confirm that questions often relate to lifestyle, union activity, therapy and family problems. Employers often claim that they need the polygraph to control inventory theft loss. However, the OTA report noted that this claim's validity had never been established, and inventory theft does not appear to be growing at a greater rate in states which have banned the polygraph. In 1978, New York State banned the for employment use one limited type of he detectors known as the Pscychological Stress Evaluator. This device measures only vocal fluctuations, and because it could be used over the telephone or by making a hidden tape recording, it was frequently used without the subject's knowledge. This bill would cover all devices which purport to detect deception. This bill expressly prohibits polygraph and lie detector testing on employees or candidates for employment as well as the use of polygraph records in any manner relating to employment. In addition to providing criminal penalties, the bill allows aggrieved employees to sue for damages and other appropriate relief including reinstatement, expurgation of polygraph records, lost compensation, and attorney's fees. This bill has been approved in the past by the Committee on State Legisla tion of the Association of the Bar of the City of New York, and is supported by the New York Civil Liberties Union and the AFL-CIO.

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CHEMICAL "EEK NEW YORK, NV WEEKLY 50,000 HOU 4 1907 Butt,qEUPS -1381-_ _DC ~PA decides on fiery l ~leanup for Love Canal Com~u:i~/ 'tll waste sites will be l~g closely at a decision last week by the Environmental Protec tion Agency (EPA) to incinerate dioxincontaminated sludge from the creeks and sewers of the Love Canal site at Niagara Falls, N. Y. "This is welcome news for other communities with Super fund sites," says the area's congress man, Representative John J. LaFalce (D., N. Y.). "It shows that EPA is choos ing destruction over landfilling." However, J. Winston Porter, EPA's hazardous waste chief, downplays the decision as a precedent. "These are site specific decisions based on a lot of different factors," he says. Porter acknowledges that he faces the same basic options in an upcoming decision on how to clean up dioxin-laden wastes at Times Beach, Mo. Under the Love Canal plan, EPA will burn an estimated 35,000 cu yd of contaminated materials in a mobile inciner ator to be placed on site, at a cost of $26-31 million. The decision will not af fect the 21,800 tons of chemical wastes originally dumped at Love Canal; EPA says it would be too risky to excavate that material at this time. Instead, the agency will permanently remove and destroy dioxin from sediments collected when local sewers were cleaned this fall and from a planned dredging of two contaminated creeks in the area. Lafalce wins. The decision to inciner ate the wastes is a victory for LaFalce, who fought a 1985 EPA plan to store the wastes at a landfill on the site. LaFalce challenged the agency and got the congressional Office of Technolo Assessment TA) to agree wit im t"fiat the wastes cou d be incinerated. EPA then wrote a new feasibilitv study proposing to incinerate all waste~ containing one part per billion or more Lafalce welcomes EPA's decision. of dioxin. But LaFalce objected to that as well, saying that it would be
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NOtJf110CR 1987 i!gB8c:n COHHERCIAL CARRIER JOURMAL RAONOR, r~, ~8 GIJ f10NTliL V J7, 000 -----WASHINGTON REPORT OTA study will determine impact of major truck safety factors Vl.:t 1 'i' If you havJ an untrained or poorly trained driver speeding down the highway in a heavy truck with de fective brakes, you've got trouble in River City, baby. That's the preliminary conclusion of a new congressional study of truck safety by the Office of Tech nology Assessment (OTA). It doesn't take a high-powered study to reach those conclusions. But the importance of the study, after it's completed and published, will be how much weight to give to speed, driver and faulty equipment. Edith B. Page, OTA director for the project, told a House Surface Transportation subcommittee that her agency's study has shown that about 40% of heavy trucks involved I in accidents are exempt from feder! al safety regulations because they are operating in commercial zones (CZs). That's music to the ears of Thomas Donohue, president of American Trucking Associations (ATA), who has been leading the fight to end commercial zone exemptions. CZs have become a dumping ground for bad equipment and bad drivers, he told the same House subcom mittee. Donohue told the panel: "Some trucks should not be on the road. I'll tell you where they are. They are in commercial zones, where nobody can get at them. And the drivers that we're trying to get rid of are in commercial zones, where nobody can find them." Most frequent accident factor Page zeroed in on speed as a main culprit. "Speed is the most frequent factor in serious truck ac cidents," she said. There's a "need to focus on speed limits as well as human factors and technologies re-By NEIL REGEIMBAL Washington Bureau Chief 202-662-8960 lated to controlling speeds," she added. Controlling speed brings up the question of brakes, which Page called a "mind-boggling problem." Current truck brake systems, she told the subcommittee, perform ad equately if "properly installed, well maintained and frequently adjust ed. "However," she continued, "the OTA has found in the industry that misunderstanding and misinforma tion about truck brakes are so widespread that these three pre requisites are rarely met. "Standard procedures for main taining and adjusting brakes and education and training programs to disseminate accurate information are key components," she said. Page indicated that OTA is sup porting speed governors on heavy trucks as one method of reducing accidents. But the agency is not overly fond of truck speed record ers for that purpose. Support for testing on-board truck monitoring devices is slowly increasing among some fleets and associations such as the Private Truck Council of America (PTCA) and the National Private Trucking Association. However, Page pointed out, if management doesn't pay attention ..__ c ..... - -' to the devices, they're "not going to stop a driver from speeding." Since owner operators are their own management and unless the information collected by their on board computers is read regularly by an enforcement arm, the de vices probably won't have an im pact on reducing owner operators' speed or violations of hours of ser vice regulations -a topic Page did not address. In all discussions about truck safety and maintenance, the de bate invariably centers on the prob lem of large fleets that have good maintenance and the smaller oper ators who often do not. Donohue pointed out to the con gressional subcommittee that many trucking companies are small entrepreneurs with only two or three trucks, and the owner or driv ers perform the maintenance. Issu ing regulations that the large oper ators can meet may not help the small owners or lead to improved maintenance of their vehicles, he said. Hours-of-service problems The hours-of-service issue as a factor in highway safety is getting a new and confusing look from various sources. The gadfly Insurance Institute for Highway Safety told the subcom mittee that a new study it commis sioned shows that drivers at the wheel for more than eight hours at a stretch are nearly twice as likely to be involved in a crash as drivers who have been at the wheel less than two hours. Studies by other groups, includ ing the Federal Highway Adminis tration, show a disproportionate number of accidents in the first and second hours on duty when fatigue is presumably not a factor, says the PTCA. PTCA wants a "comprehensive review of the role of fatigue in truck-involved accidents" before newly mandated equipment has to : be installed on trucks. Maybe we need another study. c:


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