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',,, 1:;.'-.,f) ._.i I : ~ t.-~ t ... ~,. '(. .-.. Quarterly Report to the Technology Assessment Boar Apr. 1-June 30, 1988 ,.._i-9 ,1.-..n:s co"'c,.~ .,., ... ,. CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES ; : Offlce of Technology Assessment o.,. ~~"',! Washington DC 2051 0 -8025 "'C"lf~OLC>U' ,...,
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Office of Technology Assessment Congressional Board of the 100th Congress MORRIS K. UDALL, Arizona Chairman TED STEVENS, Alaska Vice Chairman Senate ORRIN G. HATCH Utah CHARLES E. GRASSLEY Iowa EDWARD M. KENNEDY Massachusetts ERNEST F HOLLINGS South Carolina CLAIBORNE PELL Rhode Island WILLIAM J PERRY, Chairman H&Q Technology Partners DAVIDS. POTTER Vice Chairman General Motors Corp. ( Ret. ) EARL BEISTLINE Consultant CHARLES A. BOWSHER General Accounting Office House GEORGE E. BROWN JR. JOHN H. GIBBONS (Nonvoting) Advisory Council California JOHN D. DINGELL Michigan CLARENCE E. MILLER Ohio DON SUNDQUIST Tennessee AMO HOUGHTON New York S. DAVID FREEMAN Lower Colorado River Authority JOSHUA LEDERBERG Rockefeller University MICHEL T HALBOUTY Michel T. Halbouty Energy Co. NEILE. HARL Iowa State University JAMES C. HUNT University of Tennessee Director JOHN H. GIBBONS CHASE N. PETERSON University of Utah SALLY RIDE Stanford University JOSEPH E. ROSS C o ngressional Research Service
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CONTENTS I. COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS A. Summary of FY '87 Completions, Ongoing Work in FY '88, and New Starts Through June 30, 1988 2 B. Products Delivered During the Quarter 1. Formal Assessment Reports............................. 3 2. Other: Technical Memoranda, Background Papers, Staff Papers or Letter Memoranda, Workshop Proceedings, and Committee Prints 12 3. Testimony 16 C. Other Communication with Congress 1. Formal Discussions --Topics 19 2. Informal Discussions --Topics '.'.O D. Projects in Process as of 6/30/88 (including formal assessments, responses to TAB, and Committee requests) 1. Descriptions and Requester(s) 24 A. In Press as of 6/30/88 25 B. In Progress as of 6/30/88 29 E. New Assessments Approved During the Quarter 60 F. Third Quarter FY 1988 Action on Bills Mentioning OTA..... 61 II. PUBLICATION BRIEFS OF FORMAL ASSESSMENTS DELIVERED III. SELECTED NEWS CLIPS ON OTA PUBLICATIONS AND ACTIVITIES
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I. -2 -COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS A. Sur.1mary of FY '87 Completions, Ongoing Work in FY '88, June '30, 1988 FY '87 FY Products Released Total .9l. Formal Assessments 11 2 1 Other Special Reports 6 1 2 Report Supplements 0 Technical ~emoranda 3 Background Papers, Case Studies, or Workshop Proceedings 6 3 1 Testimony 29 9 6 Staff Papers or Letter Memoranda 19 6 5 Administrative Documents 5 2 1 '.'Jew Projects Approved by TAB Assessments 15 2 7 Other (Scope Changes; Special Responses Over 30K) 0 Projects in Process as of June 30, 1988 1. In Press Assessments 5 Other (TM's, Background Papers, etc.) 3 2. In Progress Assessments Other 30 18 and New Starts Through '88 5rr 10 5 1 29 3 1 4
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-3 -I. COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS 8. Products Released During the Quarter 1. Formal Assessment Reports MAPPING OUR GENES: GENOME PROJECTS --HOW BIG, HOW FAST? --The assessment is an early warning project likely to be of great interest to authorizing committees, appropriations committees, science agencies, and the general public. Each human cell, except sperm and egg cells, contains 46 chromosomes. The chromosomes contain an estimated 50,000 to 100,000 genes encoded throughout a sequence of some 3 to 3.5 billion DNA base pairs. Technologies to rapidly determine DNA sequences have been developed over the past decade, and have recently been automated. Techniques to identify "landmarks" on each of the human chromosomes are well underway,and the number of such landmarks is roughly doubling each year. These emerging technologies have led to speculation that the Federal Government should mount a special effort, estimated to cost in the range of $3 billion over 5 to 10 years, to generate the entire human DNA sequence. A concurrent debate centers on alternati~e means of usefully mapping the human genome, not necessarily resulting in a complete DNA sequence. The Japanese are mounting a major gene sequencing project, and the Howard Hughes Medical Institute (HHMI) -with its $5 billion endowment -is heavily invested in gene mapping. Policy implications arise from several sources. First, the expertise to perform the sequencing resides in several different executive agenceis, primarily the Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH). Funding and coordination would thus be complex. Second, this could be among the first "big science" projects in biology, requiring substantial resources over a sustained period. Third, the technologies to do the sequencing and gene mapping would have signficant clinical applications, scientific consequences, and industrial spinoffs for biotechnolgoy. Fourth an international effort to map the human genome would have to contend with conflicts between free exchange of data and technololgy, on one hand, and propriety and nationalistic interests on the other. Requester: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chairman Endorsers: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Edward Kennedy, Chairman House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Hon. James H. Sc:1-2L;er, Chairman, Subcommittee on Natural Resources, ~~ricul:ure Research and Environment :'roj,~ct Director: Rub~,rc:: C::ulJk-2e'32.:rn, 223-6679 (Published l,/Bd)
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-4 -BOOK PRESERVATION TECHNOLOGIES -This assessment reviews the appropriateness of the technology selected by the Library of Congress to halt the acid deterioration of books. Acid deterioration makes books published since 1859 unusable over time. Already, millions of books in the Library of Congress' collection are too brittle to circulate. The Library has been, since the mid-1970's, working to develop the Diethyl Zinc (DEZ) Mass Deacidification process to protect the books in its collection. A pilot plant is currently being designed and tests are scheduled to begin in the Fall of 1987. However, concerns have been raised about the technological effectiveness, safety, toxicology, environmental impact, and cost effectiveness of the process. Alternative methods are being used or developed by a few other libraries around the world, though not at the scale planned by the Library of Congress. Requesters: House Committee on Appropriations Hon. Jamie L. Whitten, Chairman Hon. Silvio Conte, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Vic Fazio, Chairman, Subcomittee on Legislative Branch Hon. Jerry Lewis, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Peter Johnson, 228-6862 (Published 5/88) TECHNOLOGY AND THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC TRANSITION --New technologies, growing international competition in markets once dominated by U.S. suppliers, and changes in the cost and availability of oil and other critical resources may lead to a fundamental change in the structure of the U.S. economy. These changes could also change the utility of major classes of public policy. The analysis conducted for this project describes ways the national economy may change during the next two decades, explores the ways these changes may alter prospects for employment and profitable investment in different major classes of economic activities, describes how the changes may alter critical aspects of the quality of life in America, and examines the implications of these changes for national policy. The analysis was constructed around seven tightly integrated projects. Six of these were designed to explore plausible ways the economy may move to meet basic market requirements during the next two decades and the nature of the employment and investment opportunities created. The areas covered include: the health industries, agriculture and food processing, construction, transportation and communication, education, and "leisure-time" industries. At ~east two possibilities were considered in each case: (1) an extrapolation of current trends, and (2) an analysis of ways the market could be met assuming that new technologies were introduced with no market "imperfections" except those explicitly introduced where markets clearly are inadequate (e.g., regulations designed to pro:cct the environment). This analysis of'\ --~ ds" is not a forec::,st i:: the con'1entional sense but is d,~s;a;:---
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-5 -illuminate the range of possible impacts of new technologies. When the "potential" analysis differs significantly from projections based on trends, the work will provide a convenient basis for determining whether or not the divergence results from poorly designed federal programs. A separate project was examining basic manufacturing and service industries not covered elsewhere. Each of these projects resulted in a separate publication and an evaluation of specific policy problems identified in the sectors covered. The components are combined systematically using a simple accounting procedure developed for the project. Where relevant, the results were compared with major macroeconomic models developed elsewhere. The integrated analysis will be used to examine major national policy issues affecting capital formation, employment, international competition, investments in infrastructure, research and development priorities, and other areas of major national interest. Interim Deliverables: A Review of U.S. Competitiveness in Agricultural Trade (Technical Memorandum) (Published 10/86) Technology, Trade. and the U.S. Residential Construction Industry (Spe:ial Report) (Published 9/86) U.S. Textile Ind~stry: A Revolution in Progress (Special Report) (Published 4/86) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Bob Packwood, then Chairman, still member Hon. Ernest Hollings, then Ranking Minority Member, now Chairman Hon. Larry Pressler, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Business, Trade, and Tourism Senate Committee on the Budget Hon. Pete V. Domenici, then Chairman, now Ranking Minority Member Hon. Lawton Chiles, then Ranking Minority Member, now Chairman House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman House Committee on Post Office and Civil Service Hon. William D. Ford, Chairman House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, then Chairman House Committee on Education and Labor Hon. Carl D. Perkins (deceased), then Chairman House Committee on the Judiciary Hon. Peter W. Rodino, Chairman House Committee on Public Works and Transportation Hon. James J. Howard, Chairman House Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs Hon. Fernand J. St Germain, Chairman Hon. Chalmers P. Wylie, Ranking Minority Member Project Direct~r: Henry Kelly,223-6300 (published 5/88)
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-6 -INFERTILITY PREVENTION AND TREATMENT -Infertility affects one in six American couples. About one million of these couples seek the help of doctors and infertility clinics each year. The health-care costs of infertility have been estimated to be at least $200 million annually and may be closer to $1 billion, virtually all from the private sector. A majority of infertile adults can be effectively treated with newly developed microsurgical techniques and/or fertility drugs. In addition, artificial insemination results 1n the birth of some 10,000-20,000 children each year in the U.S. Since 1978, other new techniques of conception have brought hope to childless couples. Societal custom, law, and regulation are largely unequipped to handle the rapidly changing, novel social and biological opportunities and relationships offered by innovative reproductive technologies. This assessment covers six principal areas: (1) Technologies to prevent infertility. The assessment describes causes of infertility and approaches to prevention. Existing and anticipated technologies to prevent infertility are addressed. (2) Technologies to diagnose infertility. The report describes the diagnostic technologies and techniques used to identify the existence and cause of an individual's infertility. Anticipated advances in infertility diagnostics is al:) discussed. (3) Technologies to treat infertility, (e.g., therapeutic drugs, microsurgery, artificial insemination, in vitro fertilization, embryo transfer, surrogate motherhood, freezi~g of germ cells and embryos), as well as ancillary reproductive technologies (e.g., sex-selection). (4) In addition, the report discusses the effect of Federal policy on the quality and/or availability of infertility therapies in the United States. (5) Veterans' issues. (6) Other issues. State laws governing a child's legitimacy, custody, inheritance rights, support, and adoption is addressed insofar as some types of infertility treatment raise special issues. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs Hon. Frank Murkowski, then Chairman, now Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Government Operations Hon. Ted Weiss, Chairman, Subcommittee on Intergovernmental Relations and Human Resources Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Hon. Albert Gore, Jr., then Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on the Civil Service, Post Office and General Service Project Director: Gary Ellis, 228-6681 (Published 5/88) SEISMIC VERIFICATION OF NUCLEAR TEST BAN TREATIES -For nearly JO years, a ban on the testing of nuclear weapons has been a major objective of arms control. Although the past five administrations have sought to achieve this goal, it has remained unattainable due in large part to the technical question of whether such a treaty could be adeuately ~erified. This question has becJm~ part~cularly pronounced i~ ~ie~ of the administration's ~~nding that the So,iet
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-7 -Union is likely to have violated the Threshold Test Ban Treaty by exceeding the 150 kiloton testing limit. The specific concern is that seismic methods used to verify test bans may not be able to distinguish between earthquakes and certain relatively small nuclear explosions. In addition, the monitoring network could perhaps be evaded by muffling explosions in large underground cavities, or by masking explosions during naturally occurring earthquakes. Recently, there have been a number of technological achievements in the field of seismology and assertions have been made that they will significantly improve our capabilities to monitor underground nuclear explosions. Some of these new discoveries may also provide effective methods for countering the possible evasion ploys. This study will examine the nature of these new technologies and assess their potential for improving our seismic verification capabilities. Request or Affirmation of Interest Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Hon. Dave Durenberger, then Chairman Hon. Patrick Leahy, then Vice Chairman House Committee on Foreign Affairs Hon. Dante Fascell, Chairman House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence Hon. Lee Hamilton, then Chairman Project Director: Gregory E. van der Vink, 228-6446 (Published 5/88) THE QUALITY OF MEDICAL CARE: INFORMATION FOR THE CONSUMER --OTA examined whether valid information on the quality of medical care could be developed and made publicly available to guide consumers' choices of physicians and hospitals. Recent changes in how physicians and hospitals are paid have raised concerns that providers facing restricted budgets and low payment rates will skimp on services to the detriment of patients' hea(th and that thirdparty payers will seek low-cost providers without sufficient attention to the quality of care. Advocates of better quality-ofcare information expect that individuals and organizations would use it to select _hospitals and physicians, thereby exerting leverage on these providers to improve their performance. After examining various ways to measure the quality of care, this OTA report concluded that several of the possible indicators can provide useful informaiton to guide individuals and organizations in selecting physicians and hospitals. Although none of the possible measures can conclusively evaluate quality across the full range of medical care, several could be used to flag areas of concern that warrant further investigation. In evaluating a specific physician or hospital, OTA advises consumers to combine information from more than one indicator and to draw information from more ~han one year. The report identified se~eral deficienci~J in the fi~'.d 0~ quality assessment and de:eloped aptions that
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-8 -Congress could adopt to improve quality assessment techniques, to ensure the quality of assessments, to improve the availability of required data, and to make quality-of-care information more available tJ the public. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Hon. Henry A. Waxman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment Hon. James H. Scheuer, member, Subcommittee on Health and the the Environment House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, then Chairman Hon. George E. Brown, member Hon. James H. Scheuer, member Senate Special Committee on Aging Hon. Join Heinz, then Chairman, now Ranking Minority Member Hon. John Glenn, Ranking Minority Member, still member Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Al Gore, Jr., Chairman Subcommittee on Consumer Project Director: Jane Sisk, 228-6590 (Published 6/88) SDI: TECHNOLOGY, SURVIVABILITY, AND SOFTWARE --This project attempts to meet mandated study objectives by carrying out three major tasks: 1) update of the 1985 OTA Report on New Ballistic Missile Defense Technologies with respect to the technologies currently being researched under the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI). The work of the earlier report was not repeated, but rather special attention was given to filling in gaps in that Report and to reporting on technical progress made in the intervening two years; 2) examination of the best currently available information on the prospects for functional survival against preemptive attack of alternative ballistic missile defense system architectures currently being studied under the SDI; and 3) analysis of the issues involved in the question of whether it is feasible to develop reliable software to perform the battle management tasks required by such system architectures. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Mandated by P.L. 99-190 Project Director: Tom Karas, 228-6430 (Published 6/88)
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-9 -GRASSROOTS DEVELOPMENT: THE AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT FOUNDATION -In 1980, Congress established the African Development Foundation (ADF). Evaluations by the U.S. Agency for International Development (AID), the World Bank, and other donors had revealed persistent gaps and weaknesses in U.S. agricultural and other technical assistance and Members hoped that ADF could contribute to more successful U.S. approaches. Now, after several years of funding, ADF supports approximately 100 projects in 19 African countries, e.g., ones that improve local water supplies, provide small-scale credit, and expand vegetable and fish farming. Although ADF's history is brief, Congress has asked a fundamental question: is the Foundation having an impact? And what can be done to improve this innovative approach to self-help development assistance? This assessment examines ADF's funding of agriculture and renewable resource projects to: 1) assess the degree to which ADF achieves its legislated purposes to support participation of the poor in development; 2) assess the extent to which ADF efforts are sustainable and replicable; 3) examine the degree to which people's participation has led to social and economic development; and 4) identify lessons learned for ADF, AID, and other donors. Requesters: House Committee on Foreign Affairs Hon. Dante B. Fascell, Chairman Hon. Howard Wolpe, Chairman, Subcommittee on Africa House Select Committee on Hunger Hon. Mickey Leland, Chairman Endorser: Senate Foreign Relations Committee Hon. Paul Simon, Chairman, Subcommittee on African Affairs Project Director: Phyllis Windle, 228-6533 {Published 6/88) ADVANCED MATERIALS BY DESIGN --Development and use of advanced materials such as high performance ceramics and polymer composites promise dramatic changes in many aspects of our economy. The unique properties and design features of these materials provide the opportunity for greatly increased performance in many products in use today, enhanced manufacturing productivity, and new types of products. Composites used as structural members in aircraft and ceramics in machine tool bits already have demonstrated some of these large performance gains. The promise of these materials has caused other nations to embark on major development programs. This nation's ability to maintain long term economic growth and remain competitive will depend to a large extent on how well we take ad~antage of the opportunities presented by these materials. To do sci. howe~er, requires that many technical problems and ~on-tec~nica! barr~~rs te o~ercome.
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10 This assessment defines the many opportunities for high technology ceramics and polymer composites over the next 15 to 25 years. It determines the principal technical and related problems that need to be overcome if timely expansion of the commercial use of these materials is co take place. Finally, the study analyzes the broad implications of these high technology materials to future U.S. economic growth and competitiveness. Interim Deliverable: New Structural Materials Technologies (Technical Memorandum) (Published 9/86) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. John C. Danforth, then Chairman, now Ranking Minority Member Hon. Ernest F. Hollings, then Ranking Minority Member, now Chairman Hon. Slade Gorton, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology He~. Don Fuqua, then Chairman He~, Manuel Lujan, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Dan Glickman, then Chairman, still member, and Hon. Tom Lewis, Ranking ~inority ~ember, Subcommittee on Transportation, Aviation, and Materials Project Director: Greg Eyring, 228-6270 (published 6/88) EDUCATING SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS: GRADE SCHOOL TO GRAD SCHOOL -This Report examines the factors that affect the future supply of scientists and engineers, especially the formal education system from elementary and secondary schools through graduate school. Students' career aspirations plans to attend college, intentions to major in certain fields, the numbers that earn baccalaureate degrees, and, for those with a research career in mind, the proportion that enter graduate school and eventually receive a Ph.D. respond to various influences. The Report analyzes these and other relationships. It concludes that policy can help create a larger pool of prepared students to satisfy market demand for technical knowledge and skills. Students are lured to or deterred from pursuing a career in science or engineering by highter education opportunities, the health of universities, the support of R&D, the attractiveness of an academic career, popular images of life and work as a scientists or engineer, and of course, family iniiuences. Two Federal management issues and 12 policy issues related to the education and supply of future scientists and engineers are identified. They fall under two strategies that, though seemingly :1:n~ous, have not been pre~i,uS~/ cour.L::,ltc:'d: (l) r,:odu,.::-.: 1ttriti,:1 _,c both the undergraduate an,: ,(r1ciu:-1.c: ',-,-;,(-; (shirt.--::-,::11 ,.,c:,~:~L::,~, .,-~d (~) enlarge the ;:iooL ,)~ id-0r~c_ 1~ ,,_ <: :-~,:c0,-: 0~c;i --~ ,... ---L --ne '.it )
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11 -Interim Deliverables: Elementary and Secondary Math and Science Education (Technical Memorandum) (September 1988) Higher Education for Science and Engineering (Technical Memorandum) (October 1988) Requester: House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, then Chairman Hon. Doug Walgren, Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Research, and Technology Project Director: Daryl Chubin, 228-6933 (Published 6/88)
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12 I. B. 2. Other: Technical Memoranda, Background Papers, Workshop Proceedings, Committee Prints, and Administrative Reports ELECTRONIC DELIVERY OF PUBLIC ASSSISTANCE BENEFITS: TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS AND POLICY ISSUES (Background Paper) Requested by Subcommittee on the Handicapped of the Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources, this paper discusses the technological options available for use in an electronic system to deliver public assistance benefits, the privacy and security implications of such a system, and the programmatic effects of changing to an electronic delivery system. The paper built on reserach conducted for two earlier OTA studies, Federal Government Information Technology: Electronic Records and Individual Privacy (June 1986), and Defending Secrets, Sharing Data: New Locks and Keys for Electronic Information (October 1987). Project Director: Priscilla Regan (Published 4/88) FIELD-TESTING ENGINEERED ORGANISMS: GENETIC AND ECOLOGICAL ISSUES (Special Report) The third in a series of reports on New Developments in Biotechnology, OTA analyzes some of the scientific and public opinion issues surrounding the planned introduction of genetically engineered orga~isms into the environment. This report illustrates a range of opt~ 1ns for congressional action in three major areas of public polciy relaced to this application of biotechnology: 1) The critera for review of planned introductions for potential risk; 2) the administrative mechanisms for applying such review criteria; and 3) the research base supporting planned introductions. Project Director: Gary B. Ellis (Published 5/88) CRIMINAL JUSTICE, NEW TECHNOLOGIES AND THE CONSTITUTION (Special Report) In honor of the Bicentennial of the United States Constitution, OTA is conducting a study of Science, Technology and the Constitution. This report (the third in the series) looks at new technologies used for investigation, apprehension, and the confinement of offenders, and their effects on the constitution protection of these rights. These technololgiecal innovations offer social benefits that respond to the current pressures for reduction of crime, the just and equitable administration of justice, and relief of prison overcrowding. However, technology throughout history has been a double-edged sword, equally capable of enhancing or endangering democratic values. This report describes the new technologies being used in criminal. justice and, as 1n all of the reports of this series, addresses that delicate balance to be maintained between the national interest and individual rights. Project Director: Vary T. Coates (Published 5/88)
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13 -ARE WE CLEANING UP? 10 SUPERFUND CASE STUDIES -(Special Report) -Four committees of Congress asked OTA to assess how Superfund is being implemented under the 1986 Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act. They asked OTA to examine a number of technical issues that arise near the beginning of the complex Superfund Process. The study was to assess the impacts of statutory provisions and program policies on environmental effectiveness and economic efficiency. During the asssessment we realized that we could learn much by finding out how sites progress through the Superfund program and how-and when-critical decisions about their cleanup are being made. This special report presents 10 case studies of recent Superfund decisions at sites which OTA believes, from surveying over 100 recent cleanup decisions, to be representative of a broad range of contamination problems and cleanup technolgies. Project Director: Joel Hirschhorn (Published 6/88) COMMERCIALIZING HIGH-TEMPERATURE SUPERCONDUCTORS -(Special Report) -Less than two years ago, superconductivity--total loss of resistance to electricity--could be achieved only at temperatures near absolute =~r10. Since the discovery of high-temperature superconductivy (HTS) r~search laboratories around the world have pushed the temperature lcmits steadily upward, opening the way to commercial applications with potentially revolutionary impacts. The scientific race is becoming a commercial race, one featuring U.S. and Japanese companies and one that the United States could lose. The Senate Committess on Governmental Affairs, Energy and Natural Resources, and Commerce, Science and Transportation, together with the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology requested the assessment on HTS; one part to focus on research and development needs for applications, and the other on commercialization issues. This special report examines on the adequacy of Federal institutions, and processes and policies to facilitiate, in a mnner competitive with other nations, the transition from invention to marketable product. Project Director: John A. Alic (Published 6/88) PAYING THE BILL -MANUFACTURING & AMERICA'S TRADE DEFICIT -(Special Report) OTA has prepared this special report as part of a comprehensive assessrr2nt of Technology, Innovation and U.S. Trade. In the 1980's, the United States has experienced large current account deficits, particularly in manufactures trade. This special report analyzes the causes of the deterioration in America's trade performance and examines the importance of U.S. manufacturing in helping the nation improve its position in international trade.
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14 -A weaker dollar has helped to increase exports of U.S. manufactures in the first quarter of 1988, but counting on the lower dollar alone to sell American manufactured goods is a shaky strategy with risks of painful adjustments. Changes in fiscal and trade policies will be needed. Additionally, improved manufacturing competitiveness -the ability to make high-quality goods at reasonable costs, without sacrificing our standard of living to get costs down --will be crucial for the United States to eliminate the trade deficit. Project Director: Julie Corte (Published 6/88) ASSESSMENT ACTIVITIES (Administrative Document) (Published 4/88)
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-15 -OTA Staff Papers or Letter Memoranda Date 04/13/88 04/18/88 06/02/88 Subject A Treaty-Complaint Accidental Launch Protection System Urban Ozone and the Clean Air Act: Problems and Proposals for Change How Effective is AIDS Education? Related OTA Work Ongoing work in International Security and Commerce Prosram Ongoing work in the Oceans and Environment Program Ongoing work in the Health Program
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-16 -I. B. 3. Testimony Date 04/11/88 04/14/88 04/20/88 04/20/88 04/20/88 04/21/88 04/28/88 04/29/88 05/08/88 05/10/38 Committee/Chairman Subcommittee on Environment, Energy and Natural Resources, House Committee on Government Operations Subcommittee on Superfund and Environmental Oversight, Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight, House Committee on Public Works and Transportation Subcommittee on Aviation, Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation Subcommittee on Environmental Protection, Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Subcommittee on Transportation, Tourism, and Hazardous Materials, House Committee on Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Wheat, Soybeans, and Federal Grains and Department Operations, Research, and Foreign Agriculture, House Agriculture Committee Subcommittee on Agricultural Research and General Legislation, Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Subcommittee on Transportation, Aviation and Materials, House Committee on Science, Space and Technololgy Subcommittee on Select Education, House Committee Education and Labor Subject/Person Testifying OTA's Superfund Implementation Assessement (Joel Hirschhorn) OTA's Superfund Implementation Assessment (Joel Hirschhorn) OTA's Superfund Implementation Assessment (Joel Hirschhorn) Safe Skies for Tommorrow: Aviation Safety in a Competitive Environment (Edith Page) Protection of U.S. Estauries and Coastal ~aters (Howard Levenson) Reducing Generation ot Hazardous Waste (Joel Hirschhorn) Previews of Findings from OTA's Study on Grain Quality (Michael Phillips) Previews of Findings from OTA's Study on Grain Quality (Michael Phillips) FAA's Research and Development Programs (Edith Page) Technology and Disabled People (Barbara Boardman)
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Date 05/ll/88 05/12/88 05/12/88 05/12/88 05/18/88 05/19/88 05/20/88 05/20/88 05/26/88 06/01/ 88 06/02/88 17 Committee/Chairman Subcommittee on Energy Research and Development, Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Senate Committee on Veteran's Affairs Subcommittee on Energy and Power, House Committee on Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Energy and the Environment, House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs Subcommittee on Energy Research and Development, Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Subcommittee on Surface Transportation, House Committee on Public Works and Transportation Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space, Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Subcommittee on Handicapped, Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Subcommittee on Energy and Power, House Committee on Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Regulation and Business, House Committee on Small Business Subcommittee on Aviation, House Committee on Public Works and Transportation Subject/Person Testifving Commercialization of New Technologies on Proposed DOE Act #S.1480 and Proposed Amendement (1627) (John Alic) Orange Disability Benefits Legislation (Hellen Gelband) Nuclear Standardization (Alan Crane) Transportation of Spent Nuclear F'uel (Edith Page) Conservation and Renewable Energy Research and Developme:1t (Peter D. Blair) Transportation of Hazardous Materials (Edith Page) Advanced Materials for Design (Gregory Eyring) Technology and Disabled People (Barbara Boardman) Acid Deposition (Robert F'riedman) Infertility: Medical and Social Choices (Gary B. Ellis) Safe Skies for Tommorrow: Aviation Safety in Competitive Environment (Edi.th Page)
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Date 06/06/88 06/08/88 06/08/88 06/28/88 06/28/88 06/28/88 06/29/88 06/30/88 18 -Committee/Chairman Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Agriculture Research and Environment, House Committee on Science, Space and Technology Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Subcommittee on Hospitals and Health Care, House Committee on Veterans' Affairs Subcommittee on Science, Research and Technology, House Committee on Science, Space and Technology Subcommittee on Arms Control, International Security and Science, House Committee on Foreign Affairs Senate Committee on Government Affairs Subcommittee on Science, Research and Technology and the Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Agricultural Research, and the Environment, House Committee on Science, Space and Technology Subcommittee on Energy Research and Development, House Committee on Science, Space and Technology Subject/Person Testifying The Quality of Medical Care: Information for Consumers (Jane E. Sisk) The Effectiveness of AIDS Education (Jane E. Sisk) Current Knowledge of Vietnam Veterans' Health and Exposure to Agent Orange (Hellen Gelband) Educating Scientists and Engineers: Grade School to Grad School (Daryl Chubin) Seismic Verification of Nuclear Testing Treaties (Grego~y E. Van der Vink) Release of report: Commercializing High Temperature Superconductivity (John H. Gibbons) Remediating Global Warming: Technical Potential and Commercial Availability of New Energy Technologies (Peter Blair) Conservation and Renewable Energy Research and Development (Peter D. Blair)
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19 -I. C. Other Communication with Congress 1. Formal Briefings, Presentations, Workshops (With Committee Staffs) COMMITTEES OF THE SENATE Environment and Public Works o Urban Ozone COMMITTEES OF THE HOUSE Science, Space and Technology Subcommittee on Transportation, Aviation, and Materials o Aircraft Technologies and R&D Ways and Means Health o Optometry Services Under Medicare OTHER CONGRESSIONAL OFFICES Senators Inouye and Kassebaum o Adolescent Health Assessment Representative Houghton o Nursing Shortage Biomedical Ethics Board 0 Biomedical Ethics Advisory Committee OTHER OFFICES/ORGANIZATIONS Presidential Commission on the Human Immunodeficiency Virus Epidemic o Laboratory Quality Control and Regulation
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-20 -2. Informal Discussions --Topics In addition to briefings and presentations, informal discussions take place continually, as requested by Members and staff. OTA staff members give updates on ongoing work and provide information that Members and Committees may need relative to legislation pending or under consideration or for hearings and related testimony. and Materials Program cool Fuels rti National Wildlife Refuge 0 and Energy Futures Ceramics and Composites Coal Mine Subsidence Copper Industry Competitiveness Copper Technology Deregulation of Electric Utilities Electricity Energy Efficiency Energy Subsidies Energy System Vulernability Federal Coal Leasing Royalty Reductions Federal Mineral Activities (Oil, Gas, Coal, Oil Shale and Land Exchanges) Infrastructure R&D Mineral Leasing Mine Waste Nuclear Proliferation Oil/Gas Mineral Royalty Management Plutonium Security Research and Deve1opment Budgets Solar Energy Surface Mining Superconductivity Industry, Technology and Employment Program Advance Notice of Plant Closing Commercializing High Temperature Superconductors Employee Provided Training Government Programs for RD in Superconducting High-Temperature Superconductivity International Trade National Laboratory Role in HES Public/Private Partnership in Training Super fund Training in the Workplace
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-21 -International Security and Commerce Program Arms Control and Verification Defense Industry and Technology Impacts of Navy EMP Testing Issues of Classification Review NATO Conventions Defense SDI Seismic Verification Soviet Domestic Changes affecting U.S.-Soviet Relations Soviet Views of the Conventional Balance in Europe Space Transportation U.S. Soviet Conventional Balance 1n Europe Biological Applications Program Alzheimer's disease research funding Animal Welfare Artifical Insemination Practices Biomedical Research Policies Biotechnology and Economics Fetal Tissue: Transfer and Use Genetic Testing Genome Mapping and Sequencing Infertility Success Rates In Vitro Fertilization Costs and Clinics Long-Term Care Neural Grafts Plant Biotechnology Prescription Drugs and the Elderly Public Perceptions of Biotechnology Reproductive Research Conducted by NIH Reproductive Health of Veterans Special Care Units Technology and Aging U.S. Investment in Biotechnology U.S. Competitiveness in Biotechnology Food and Renewable Resources Program Agriculture and Groundwater Quality Biological Diversity Legislation Flood Control and Reservoir Operations Food Safety Forests and Parks in Samoa and Puerto Rico Grain Quality Assessment Low-Input Agriculture Pesticides in Food Role of U.S. Universities 1n Development Assistance Study Technology and Developing Countries Tourism and Renewable Resource Management in Puerto Rico and Samoa U.S.D.A. Wic Program U.S. Farm Policy
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Health Program Agent Orange AIDS Airliner Air Quality -22 -Alternative Ways of Paying for Drugs Asbestos in play sand Blood Transmitted Infections Breast Implant Safety Carcinogen Regulation Catastrophic Health Care Children's Health Care Clinical Trial Data and Scientific Fraud Cost of Drug R&D Drug Export Bill Drug Labeling in Developing Countries Drug/Alcoholism Tax Drug Treatment and AIDS Education Effects of Smoking in Airplanes Effectiveness of AIDS Education Mammography Medical Tests Medicare Policies Needle Exchange Programs Nursing Shortage Polygraph Prescription Drugs Prescription Drug Payment Review Commission Prescription Drug Payment Under Medicare Preventive Services for Elderly Quality of Physicians and Hospitals Rural Health Care Technology-Dependent Children Unorthodox Cancer Treatments Urine Drug Testing Toxic Substances Control Act Vietnam Veterans Health Workplace Health and Safety Co1DDunications and Information Technologies Program Communication for an Information Age Assessment Update Electronic Publishing Desktop Publishing Federal Information Dissemination Federal Information Policy Governmerit Printing Office High Definition Television Home Copying Information Technology Forecasting Intellectual Property Scientific and Technical Information Service Stock Market Issues Supercomputers
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Oceans and Environment Program Acid Rain Ash Management Book Preservation Technologies Climate Change Coal-fired Utilities Defense Nuclear Waste Domestic Shipping Policies Drought Energy Conservation Forest Fires Infectious Wastes Low-Level Radioactive Waste Marine Pollution Ozone Depletion Offshore Drilling Rights Urban Ozone -23 -Science, Education and Transportation Program Air Safety R&D Aviation R&D Air Safety -Federal Aviation Administration Changes in Funding for Educational R&D Distance Learning Educational Technology --International Comparisons Fellowship Program Tar6eted to Women in Science and Engineering Fraud & Misconduct in Science Funding for Educational Technology R&D Infrastructure for Transportation Near-Term Air Traffic Control Improvements Technology and At-Risk Students Technology and Bilingual Education Technology and Chapter 1 Programs Technology and Limited English Proficient Students Technology and Special Education Needs for Teacher Training Truck Safety
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ASSESSMENTS IN PROGRESS, June 30, 1988: BUDGET** AND SCHEDULE 1988 JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN 1989 FEB MAR $Thousands APR MAY JUN TAB OTA % ENERGY, MATERIALS, AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY Energy and Materials ~~Var. 1121 1122 1123 1124 1213 1214 Technological Risks and Opportunities for Future U.S. Energy Supply and Demand o Increased Competition in Electric Power Industry ________________________ o High-temperature Superconductors: Research, Development, Applications o Oil Production technologies and the Artie National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) __ o Industry, Technology, and Eaployaent Technology, Innovation, and U.S. Trade:.,_ ______________________________ __;o Superfund Implementation o International Security and Commerce 0 1312 Advanced Space Transportation Technologies ________________________________ ___; 1313 Maintaining the Defense Technology Base:,_,,.,....~---=--=-------,--,,.-------=-----::-:--------------------_; 1314 Monitoring and Preventing Accidential Radiation Release at the Nevada Test Site o 0 HEALTH AND LIFE SCIENCES 2112 2113 2114 2203 2219 2222 2223 2224 2225 2226 2311 2314 2315 2316 Food and Renewable Resources Technology and Public Policy to Enhance Grain Quality in International Trade o Technologies to Detect Pesticide Residues in Food ______________ o Agricultural Approaches to Reduce Agrichemical Contamination of Groundwater in the U.S ____________ (September 1989) Health Monitoring of Mandated Veteran Studies---=-~---------------------------------(indeterminate) Unorthodox Cancer Treatment: Information, Evaluation, and Policy ___________ o Drug Labeling in Developing Countries -----=-------------------------------------:~(August 1989) Federal Response to AID's: Congressional Issues (indeterminate) Preventive Health Services under Medicare o Adolescent Heal th (December 1989) Rural Health Care (October 1989) Biological Applications New Developments in Biotechnology __________________________ o Methods for Locating and Arranging Health & Long-Term Care Services For Persons with Dementia o New Developments in Neuroscience _________________________________________ __,_ (July 1990) Genetic Testing in the Workplace (November 1989) SCIENCE, INFOIIMA.TION, AND NATURAL RESOURCES eo-nication and Information Technologies 3115 3116 3117 3119 3121 3212 3214 3215 3216 3307 3308 3309 Informing the Nation: The Future of Federal Electronic Printing, Publishing, and Dissemination Communications Systems for An Information Age o Science, Technology, and the Constitution in the Information Age o Copyright and Audio Tapin.--,-----------,---------------------------------0 Information Technology and Securities Markets (December 1989) Oceans and Environment Prograa New Clean Air Act:,----,-,-------------------------------o Municipal Solid Waste Management ---------------------------------------,----0 Managing Low-Level Radioactive Waste:_ ___,,,......,,,,.....,,_ ___________________________ o Climate Modification: Ozone Depletion and Global Warming o Science, Education, and Transportation Educating Scientists and Engineers: Grade School to Grad School ______ o Power On! New Tools for Teaching and Learning Safety in the Commercial Aviation and Motor Carrier Industries _______ o ** TAB App. z TAB approved budget estimates; OTA Proj. = OTA projected budget as of 06/30/88; % Var. Percent variance of projected cost 353 354 500 500 417 417 252 168 850 850 450 450 1,035 1,035 887 887 35 35 395 420 130 130 370 370 88 37 412 374 490 490 291 291 310 310 501 501 481 481 776. 5 892 310 310 690 690 420 420 554 632 690 730 390 375 335 335 686 686 545 545 543 543 228 228 285 285 524 522 558 595 699 660 Approved by TAB (June 21, 1988) ______ o = current projected date for delivery to TAB + .3 -33.3 + 6.3 -N/A--9.2 +14.9 +14.1 + 5.8 -3.8 -0.4 + 6.6 -1.4
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24 -DESCRIPTIONS AND REQUESTERS FOR CURRENT OTA ASSESSMENTS AS OF JUNE 30, 1988
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25 -I. D. Descriptions and Requesters of Projects A. IN PRESS AS OF 6/30/88 ENHANCING AGRICULTURE IN AFRICA: A ROLE FOR U.S. DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE --Most people in developing countries are subsistence farmers who cannot obtain or afford the expensive fertilizers and pesticides upon which the high-yield (Green Revolution) technologies are based. Thus, as populations grow and fuel prices rise, low-resource agricultural technologies are receiving increased attention from donors and researchers. For example, international donors such as the Peace Corps and the World Bank are giving high priority to research and development projects that enhance rather than replace low-resource, traditional farming methods. This is particularly true for programs in Africa where subsistence farmers hold the key to increasing food production and where the continuing need for massive food aid demonstrates the failure of many past agricultural, development assistance and resource protection policies. This OTA assessment builds upon the results of a previous Technical Memorandum, Africa Tomorrow: Issues in Technology, Agriculture, and U.S. Foreign Aid. By examining low-resource agricultural technologies world-wide, OTA hopes to help Congress evaluate programs and formulate policies related to both U.S. agriculture and foreign policy. This assessment: 1) determines which of these technologies can increase African food production 1n socio-economically and environmentally sustainable ways; 2) identifies the U.S. role in technology development and transfer; 3) assesses actual and potential benefits to the U.S. from participation in international agricultural research on low-resource methods; and 4) evaluates certain aspects of the Sahel Development Program as a case study in U.S. public and private assistance to Africa. Interim Deliverable: Continuin the Commitment: Report; published 8 86) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Technology Assessment Board Hon. Morris K. Udall, then Vice Chairman, now Chairman Hon. Edward M. Kennedy Hon. Orrin G. Hatch Hon. Cooper Evans, then U.S. House of Representative Hon. Claiborne Pell House Committee on Agriculture Hon. E. (Kika) de la Garza, Chairman House Committee on Foreign Affairs Hon. Dante B. Fascell, Chairman (endorsement) House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, then Chairman Hon. James H. Scheuer, Chairman, Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Agriculture Research, and Environment
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-26 House S~lect Committee on Hunger Hon. Mickey Leland, Chairman Hon. Marge Roukema, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Phyllis Windle, 228-6633 COMPETITIVENESS OF THE DOMESTIC COPPER INDUSTRY --Copper historically has been an important part of the domestic mineral industry and has contributed significantly to the economy, particularly in the Western United States. Iri recent years, however, a number of factors have combined to reduce the demand for domestic copper in favor of foreign sources of supply. The domestic costs of copper mining, smelting, and refining have risen at a time when there was a surplus in international copper supplies and a decrease in demand due to materials substitution. When combined with the effects of a strong dollar and foreign industry subsidization, plus relatively low domestic ore grades, these cost increases and market conditions have significantly reduced the ability of the domestic industry to compete with copper imports. This study better defines the relative importance of the various technical and economic issues that contributed to the decline in competitiveness of the domestic copper industry, and identifies possible future market trends, including the potential for further substitutions and/or new markets. It assesses, 1n the context of future market trends, advanced technologies and managerial strategies with the potential for reducing costs in copper mining, smelting, refining, and byproduct utilization. Finally, the study develops constructive alternativess that could help revitalize the domestic copper industry. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Technology Assessment Board Hon. Morris K. Udall, then Vice Chairman, now Chairman Hon. Orrin G. Hatch Congressional Copper Caucus Hon. Barry M. Goldwater, then U.S. Senate Hon. Jim Kolbe, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Max Baucus, U.S. Senate Hon. Carl Levin, U.S. Senate Hon. Chic Hecht, U.S. Senate Hon. Barbara F. Vucanovich, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Manuel Lujan, Jr., U.S~ House of Representatives Hon. John McCain, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Howard C. Nielson, U.S. House of Representatives Project Director: Jenifer Robison, 228-6279
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-27 -MEDICAL TESTING AND HEALTH INSURANCE --Tests to identify individuals who are likely to develop serious diseases are being rapidly developed. Some of these tests are directed at genetic diseases for which there are no known therapies, thereby raising questions over the social consequences of identifying susceptible persons. Use of the test for detecting antibodies to the AIDS virus is already a highly controversial issue. The use of diagnostic tests by health insurance companies, self-insured businesses, and health maintenance organizations may lead to substantial costs to government if private insurance becomes very costly or unavailable. This assessment 1) identifies the tests in use and under development; 2) identifies how such tests are used and might be used by health insurers and employees; and 3) identifies methods for regulating the use of such tests and methods of providing health insurance for persons who might be denied private insurance because of such testing. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chairman Hon. Henry A. Waxman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment House Committee on Government Operations Hon. Ted Weiss, Chairman, Subcommittee on Intergovernmental Relations and Human Resources House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Hon. James H. Scheuer, Chairman, Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Agriculuture Research and Environment House Committee on Ways and Means Hon. Fortney H. (Pete) Stark, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health Hon. Daniel K. Inouye, endorser Project Director: Larry Miike, 228-6590 POWER ON! NEW TOOLS FOR TEACHING AND LEARNING --The application of computers in elementary and secondary education has been growing dramatically. There are now more than one million computers being used for instruction in over 85 percent of U.S. public and private schools. In many cases, computer-based systems are coupled with other advanced telecommunications and video technologies. These systems have the potential to deliver instruction, reinforce basic skills, overcome physical and linguistic handicaps to learning, and enhance educational program effectiveness. OTA analyzes the wide range of instructional technologies currently found in American schools, and.focuses on those factors that most strongly influence effective and equitable implementation: the role of federallyfunded programs for educationally and economically disadvantaged children, the effects of various approaches to teacher training, incentives and/or barriers to development of appropriate software, impacts of state and local as well as private sector initiatives, and the need for ongoing research and development. The study considers public policy options designed to make the best possible uses of educational technology in realizing the critical goal of improved learning and preparation of our youth for productive futures.
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28 -Requesters: House Committee on Education and Labor Hon. Augustus F. Hawkins, Chairman Hon. James M. Jeffords, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Pat Williams, Chairman, Subcommittee on Select Education Project Director: Linda Roberts, 228-6936 SAFE SKIES FOR TOMORROW--Over the past decade, the commercial aviation industry has restructured substantially, and most of the new airlines starting business in the wake of economic deregulation have now merged with established carriers. Intense market competition between the surviving carriers has forced airlines to become more efficient and control operating costs. This study examines the changes in industry operations and the commercial aviation safety records over the past 20 years. The effectiveness of FAA safety programs and oversight in addressing issues raised by changes in industry operations is assessed. Policy options include programs to improve aviation safety, address airport capacity issues and enhance FAA safety activities. Requesters: House Committee on Public Works and Transportation Hon. James J. Howard, Chairman House Committee on Government Operations Hon. Cardiss Collins, Chairwoman, Subcommittee on Government Activities and Transportation Endorsers Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation Hon. Ernest F. Hollings, Chairman Hon. John C. Danforth, Ranking Republican Member Hon. Wendell H. Ford, Chairman, Subcommittee on Aviation Hon. Nancy Landon Kassebaum, Ranking Minority Member Hon. J. James Exon, Chairman, Subcommittee on Surface Transportation Hon. Robert W. Kasten, Jr., Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Edith Page, 228-6939
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29 -I B. IN PROGRESS AS OF 6/30/88 Energy, Materials, and International Security Division TECHNOLOGICAL RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR FUTURE U.S. ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND -Congress is now being presented with a series of energy demand and supply forecasts that are radically different from those of just a few years ago. A common theme includes greatly moderated oil prices into the early 1990's followed by a possible return to OPEC dominance of oil markets, rising oil prices, and greatly expanded U.S. oil imports by the late 1990's. This study will evaluate current views of the U.S. future energy outlook, identify key technical uncertainties and risks that affect the validity of these views, and identify and evaluate energy policy options for dealing with these uncertainties and risks. In the first phase of the study, OTA evaluated the implications for U.S. energy policy of volatile #ummary published July 1987) Interim Deliverable: U.S. Oil Production: The Effect of Low Oil Prices (Special Report) (published 9!87) Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chairman Hon. Phillip R. Sharp, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Fossil and Synthetic Fuels House Committee on Government Operations Hon. Jack Brooks, Chairman Project Director: Steve Plotkin, 228-6275 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: August 1988 INCREASED COMPETITION IN THE ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY -Many economists, regulators, policymakers, and others are promoting increased competition in the U.S. electric power industry as a means of improving the economic efficiency of electricity supply. In this context increased competition generally refers to expanding the choices for electricity supply available to utilities and, in some proposals, customers. The recent trend toward increased competition in the industry is typified by a number of proposals by utilities and other organizations to construct generating facilities and provide other energy supply and conservation services outside the regulatory purview of local public utility commissions, as well as by implementation of the Public Utilities Regulatory Policies Act (PURPA) of 1978. PURPA, in particular, has prompted rapid growth of nonutility cogeneration and small power generation facilities in some States.
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30 -Accompanying the trend toward increased competition are pressures on utilities to provide "wheeling" services for other utilities, retail customers, and non-utility power generators. Wheeling is a utility's provision of power transmission service for a third party, i.e., another utility or a nonutility customer. Proponents of increased competition view mechanisms for increasing access to transmission services as essential to achieving a more efficient electric power supply system. Opponents to increased transmission access argue that the present voluntary system of permitting access on a case-by-case basis has worked well and that the extreme case of mandatory transmission access could compromise system reliability as well as, in effect, eliminate a utility's territorial franchise without relieving it of the obligation to serve all customers in its service territory. Thus, by allowing some customers to ."shop around" and purchase power from sources other than the local utility, the fixed costs of generating capacity planned and installed to serve all customers would be borne by the remaining "captive" customers. A number of OTA assessments have focused on some of the issues associated with increased competition in the power industry. They have addressed the future of nuclear power, cogeneration, and new electric power generating technologies. This assessment responds to Congressional requests that OTA focus on the technological factors constraining as well as encouraging competition in the electric power industry. This assessment will focus on the wheeling issue outlined above as well as a number of other issues, including the impact of dispersed generation on system operation, control, and planning. Also of concern are the associated regulatory, environmental, and economic questions. Interim Deliverable: Alternative Scenarios for Increased Competition 1n Electric Power Industry (Background Paper) (July 1988) Requesters: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Hon. Norman F. Lent, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Alan Crane, 228-6427 Project Delivery Date to TAB: November 1988 HIGH TEMPERATURE SUPERCONDUCTORS: RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT, AND APPLICATION/COMMERCIALIZATION The availability of high-temperature superconducting materials offers potential for many fundamentally new technological and market opportunities in computers, transportation, electric power, and other applications. Since early 1987, technical advances have been announced literally weekly and progress over the next two decades is likely to continue to be rapid on both scientific and commercial fronts.
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-31 -Two parallel and highly coordinated efforts on high temperature superconductivity are underway at OTA. One, on research and development needs for applications (Energy and Materials Program), will evaluate the U.S. research and development agenda for these materials, the technical and economic barriers facing potential applications, and the processing/manufacturing requirements for delivering products using these materials. The other, on commercialization issues (Industry, Technology, and Employment Program), focuses on the adequacy of Federal institutions, and processes and policies to facilitate, in a manner competitive with other nations, the transition from invention to marketable product. Requesters: Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Hon. J. Bennett Johnston, Chairman Hon. James A. McClure, Ranking Minority Member Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Hon. John Glenn, Chairman Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Ernest F. Hollings, Chairman Hon. John C. Danforth, Ranking Minority Member Hon. John D. Rockefeller Hon. Lloyd Bentsen Hon. Ron W. Riegle, Jr., Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Space and Technology Hon. Larry Pressler, Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Hon. Robert A. Roe, Chairman Hon. Manuel Lujan, Jr., Ranking Republican Member Project Directors: John Alic, 228-6345, and Greg Eyring, 228-6270 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: Phase I: Commercializing High-Temperature Superconductors (Published 6/88) Phase II: High-Temperature Superconductors: Research, Development and Applications November 1988 OIL PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGIES AND THE ARTIC NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE -Congress has been asked to decide the future development status of the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), an area that combines high wilderness and wildlife values with significant prospects for the discovery of supergiant oilfields. Alternative choices for ANWR include wilderness status and opening the Refuge to full scale oil and gas exploration and development at the extremes, and a range of intermediate strategies 1n between. A key argument for allowing ANWR to be opened to leasing is that the successful discovery and development of petroleum in the Refuge can serve to mitigate the anticipated decline in total Alaskan oil production and maintaining oil flow through the TransAlaskan Pipeline (TAPS). This study will examine recent projections of future Alaskan oil production, to the extent possible evaluate the accuracy of these estimates, and evaluate the potential for shifts in future production rates with technology development
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32 and changing economic conditions and regulatory requirements. As part of this evaluation, OTA will examine the evolution of technology for Arctic onshore and offshore oil exploration, development, production, and transportation over the past 15 years and project how the state of the art might evolve over the next several decades. Such changes might in turn change the economics and technical feasibility of oil production, altering the production potential of oilfields feeding into TAPS. Requesters Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Hon. J. Bennett Johnston, Chairman House Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries Hon. Walter B. Jones, Chairman Project Director: Steve Plotkin, 228-6275 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: July 1988 TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION, AND U.S. TRADE --Rapid and widespread international diffusion of technology has meant that competition from a growing number of countries, in a widening array of products, has cut into the market share of U.S. manufactueres. One result is an unprecedented trade deficit, which exceeded $160 billion in 1986. The trade deficit, caused in part by macroeconomic forces, also reflects a loss of competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing industries. Declines in productivity and quality of American manufactured goods, compared with those of our most adept competitors, may be due partly to the emphasis placed on the development of commercial technologies by foreign governments~and business, and partly to the reluctance of some U.S. manufacturers to invest in new product development and commercialization. The study will access how technology coupled with strategic responses by U.S. firms could restore the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing and reverse the erosion of our market shares. The study will also identify possible policy responses of the U.S. government, with particular emphasis on policies that could stimulate U.S. producers to invest in technologies for development and commercialization of new products, policies that could aid industrial and technological development in industrializing nations without unduly harming U.S. manufacturers, and trade policies that go beyond traditional "free trade or protection" arguments. Interim Deliverable: Pa in the Bill: Manufacturin and America's Trade Deficit (Special Report) (Published 6 88) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Finance Hon. Bob Packwood, then Chairman, now Ranking Minority Member Hon. John Heinz, then Chairman, Subcommittee on International Finance and Monetary Policy Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Hon. Jake Garn, then Chairman, now Ranking Minority Member
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33 House Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs Hon. Fernand J. St Germain Project Director: Julie Gorte, 228-6354 Deputy Project Director: Katherine Gillman, 228-6353 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: December 1988 SUPERFUND IMPLEMENTATION -In 1981 the Environmental Protection agency began the Superfund program to clean up the Nation's worst hazardous waste sites. About 26,000 sites have been identified, of which 18,000 have been removed from consideration following preliminary analyses (PA) and site investigations (SI). About 6,000 sites have not yet received a PA. There may be many more sites; EPA has not systematically looked for uncontrolled hazardous waste sites. Thus, the full extent of the cleanup task facing the Nation is ill defined, and there is great uncertainty about future Federal spending. Only a handful of sites have been cleaned up, according to the EPA, and there is disagreement over these decisions. This study is analyzing the critical early phases of the Superfund program to address such questions as: Do current actions assure that all potential Superfund sites will be discovered and, once discovered, promptly assessed and acted upon? Are technologies available for more effective immediate actions that can reduce community concerns and improve the economic efficiency of the whole program? The HRS methodology will be examined. The technical quality of the RI and FS phases will be examined. In particular, the implications of the technical decisions in these phases for effective cleanup will be assessed. An analytical framework has been designed to describe how the Superfund program has changed over time as a result of actions by Congress and EPA. OTA is examining if improved management and permanently effective cleanup technologies are being used to deliver effective environmental protection. Interim Deliverable: Are We Cleanin U? 10 Su erfund Case Studies (Special Report) (Published 6 88) Requesters: House Committee on Public Works and Transportation Hon. James S. Howard, Chairman Hon. James L. Oberstar, Chairman, Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chairman Hon. Thomas A. Luken, Chairman, Subcommittee on Transportation, Tourism, and Hazardous Materials House Committee on Government Operations Hon. Mike Synar, Chairman, Subcommittee on Environment, Energy, and Natural Resources
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34 -Senate Committee ori Environment and Public Works Hon. Frank Lautenberg, Chairman, Subcommittee on Superfund and Environmental Oversight Hon. Ike Skelton, U. S. Representative Project Director: Joel Hirschhorn, 228-6361 Deputy Project Director: Kirsten Oldenburg, 228-6356 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: December 1988 ADVANCED SPACE TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGIES -Recent executive branch reports have identified ambitious civilian and military space goals, many of which could only be met by achieving significant advances in space transportation technology. Whether or not this nation chooses to pursue these specific goals, Congress needs credible information regarding the relationship between space goals and space launch technology and the feasibility of achieving critical technical and cost milestones. Although some technology research will be "generic," the launch needs of NASA, Air Force, SDI, and the U.S. private sector are not identical. If this nation chooses to invest in advanced launcher technology, it will be important to ensure that launch vehicle requirements are met without unnecessarily dissipating scarce national resources on duplicative or unproductive research. In light of these concerns, OTA's assessment will: 1) identify launch systems capable of serving the plausible range of demand for space transportation over the next 20 years; 2) identify and evaluate key technologies -including low-cost, low-technology systems -that might increase the performance and reduce the cost of space transportation while contributing to U.S. industrial competitiveness; 3) evaluate the time and cost of development of these technologies; 4) determine how changes in spacecraft design and operations will influence launch technology; 5) analyze techniques and incentives that could reduce the operations and maintenance costs of new technologies; 6) examine alternative roles for the private sector; 7) assess the state of advanced launch research in other countries; and 8) discuss the adequacy of existing institutions for carrying out an aggressive R&D program to meet the needs of diverse users. Interim Deliverables: Reducing Launch Operations Costs: New Technologies and Practices (Tech. Memo) (August 1988) Launch Options for the Future: Buyer's Guide (Special Report) (in press) Low-Cost, Low-Technology Space Transportation Options (Staff Paper) (August 1988) Requesters: House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Hon. Robert A. Roe, Chairman Hon. Manuel Lujan, Jr., Ranking Minority Member
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35 -Senate Committee on Commerce, Science,and Transportation (99th Congress) Hon. John C. Danforth, then Chairman, now Ranking Minority Member Hon. Slade Gorton, then Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Richard DalBello, 228-6428 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: January 1989 MAINTAINING THE DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY BASE The security of the United States relies to a great extent on the technological superiority of our military systems over those of the Soviet Union. In recent years there has been a growing concern over the health of the defense technology base, the indispensable underpinning of this qualitative superiority. First, the speed and efficiency with which new technologies are exploited for defense purposes appears to be declining. Second, Defense Department access to high technology and high technology products could be limited as leadership in vital areas of technology shifts to other nations due to losses in domestic and world market shares by U.S. high technology industries. Finally, there is a downward trend in the proportion of the defense budget used to support and renew the defense technology base. This OTA assessment will explore these concerns, assessing their validity, their causes, and options for Congress to address them. In particular, the study will: 1) analyze the factors behind these and other outstanding concerns; 2) describe and analyze how the defense technology base is managed and how relevant policy is made, and identify options for Congress to improve this process; 3) describe and analyze the relation between defense and commercial sectors of selected high technology industries; 4) describe and analyze how R&D investment decisions are made in other government agencies, selected major companies, and selected foreign countries, and deduce what DOD might find useful in these approaches; and 5) identify the strengths and weaknesses of the defense technology base, suggesting policy options to exploit the strengths and remedy the weaknesses. Interim Deliverables The Defense Technology Base: Introduction and Overview (Technical Memorandum) (published 3/88) Requesters: Senate Committee on Armed Services Hon. Sam Nunn, Chairman Hon. John Warner, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Jeff Bingaman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Defense Industry and Technology Hon. Phil Gramm, Ranking Minority Member, Subcomittee on Defense, Industry and Technology Project Director: Alan Shaw, 228-6443 Project Delivery Date to TAB: March 1989
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36 -MONITORING AND PREVENTING ACCIDENTAL RADIATION RELEASE AT THE NEVADA TEST SITE -A major objective in the underground testing of nuclear weapons is to ensure that radioactive material is not released into the atmosphere. Recent incidences of small leaks into the tunnel system and the unexpected formation of a collapse crater have created concern over whether adequate safeguards are being maintained. This study will address the technical aspects of preventing and monitoring the accidental release of radioactive material during nuclear testing. In particular, the study will examine: 1) whether current geologic considerations are sufficently conservative to ensure that rock fractured during a nuclear explosion does not result in the release of radioactive materials, and 2) whether the monitoring networks are sufficiently capable to assess radiation leaks at levels that might cause health effects. Requesters: House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs Hon. Morris K. Udall, Chairman Hon. Wayne Owens Hon. Orrin G. Hatch Project Director: Gregory E. van der Vink, 228-6446 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: August 1988 Health and Life Sciences Division TECHNOLOGY AND PUBLIC POLICY TO ENHANCE GRAIN QUALITY IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE --U.S. agriculuture is beginning to show signs of declining international competiveness. For U.S. grains, the major component of agriculutral exports, quality is becoming a growing reason for this decline. Complaints from foreign buyers have surged in recent years and Congressional concern is growing about the poor quality of U.S. grain. Grain producers already are having difficult financial times and the loss of sales for quality reasons adds to their further problems. In Congressional debate of the Food Security Act of 1985 legislative proposals were discussed on how best to improve U.S. grain quality. It became quite apparent that little is known about this area, so Congress amended the Food Security Act to direct the Office of Technology Assessment to conduct a study on grain-handling technologies and export quality standards. The study is to provide information on: 1) competitive problems the U.S. faces in international grain markets attributed to grain quality; 2) the extent to which U.S. grain-handling technologies and quality standards have contributed to declining grain sales; 3) differences in grain-handling technology and export quality standards between the U.S. and competitor countries; 4) consequences to exporters and farmers to changes in grain-handling technologies and quality standards; and 5) feasibility of utilizing new technology to better classify grains.
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37 -Request or Affirmation of Interest Mandated in Food Security Act of 1985 House Committee on Agriculuture Hon.Ede la Garza, Chairman Hon. Edward R. Madigan, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Berkley Bedell, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Department. Operation, Research, and Foreign Agriculture Joint Economic Committee Hon. James Abdnor, then Vice Chairman Project Director: Michael Phillips, 228-6510 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: July 1988 TECHNOLOGIES TO DETECT PESTICIDE RESIDUES IN FOOD --The United States and many foreign countries rely on pesticides in producing agricultural crops. Some of these pesticides adhere to raw food products and others accumulate in the edible parts of plants. Some pesticides may be further accumulated in processed foods. In any case, residues may ultimately be harmful to the consumer's health. Thus knowing the quantity and kind of pesticides and their associated breakdown products present in various food products in fundamental to protecting U.S. consumers. Classicial analytical methods used currently by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the principal Federal agency that tests food for pesticide residues, can detect less than half the various pesticides that may appear on food. Development of new or improvement of existing analytical techniques would increase the government's ability to assure the safety of the food supply. Certain new biological anaylsis methods seem to hold potential for complementing classical methods, but none has received official validation. Similarly, computer-assisted automation of pesticide analysis holds promise (e.g., increase number of samples tested) but needs further development. This OTA project will conduct a workshop to examine 1) existing and emerging techniques for residue analysis of high health hazard pesticides and their breakdown products in food, 2) techniques for automating such analyses, particularly those techniques that are inexpensive, and 3) methods for validation procedures, and 4) possible combinations of techniques that the government, in particular FDA, could use to improve its ability to identify and quantify pesticide residues and associated breakdown products in food. Requesters: House Committee on Agriculture Hon. E (Kika) de la Garza, Chairman Hon. Leon B. Panetta, Chairman, Subcomittee on Domestic Marketing, Consumer Relations, and Nutrition Hon. George E. Brown, Chairman, Subcommittee on Operations, Research and Foreign Agriculture
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38 House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations Hon. Thomas J. Bliley, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Hon. Patrick Leahy, Chairman Hon. Richard Lugar, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Susan Shen, 228-6526 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: July 1988 AGRICULTURAL APPROACHES TO REDUCE AGRICHEMICAL CONTAMINATION OF GROUNDWATER IN THE UNITED STATES -Groundwater supplies drinking water to fifty percent of the conterminous U.S. population and to roughly ninety percent of the rural population. As monitoring efforts and testing methods have improved over recent years, increasing numbers of agrichemicals (fertilizers and pesticides), some of which are known carcinogens, have been found in drinking water supplies. In some cases, public health concerns have dictated that wells be capped and environmental concerns have led to controversy over the use of wildlife refuges as irrigation tailwater disposal sites. Because known groundwater clean-up methods are largely beyond the financial reach of families or communities, and assignment of liability for "nonpoint source" pollution such as agriculture is extremely difficulty, methods to minimize continued introduction of agriculturally-related contaminants to groundwater supplies are the focuse of current protection efforts. In order to assess agricultural technology that may reduce groundwater contamination, OTA will 1) review data and literature on extent, types and sources of agrichemical contamination: 2) review data and literature on hydrogeological, crop type, and cropping system relationships with contamination; 3) identify agricultural technologies with potential to reduce introduction of agrichemical contaminants into groundwater; 4) assess likely impacts of these technologies, especially on the environment, farm economics, rural communities, and the structure of agriculture; and 5) assess current and potential roles of Federal, State, and private organizations 10 the development and implementation of technologies. Requesters House Committee on Agriculture Hon. E (Kika) de la Garza, Chairman Hon. Edward R. Madigan, Ranking Minority Member Hon. George Brown, member Hon. Pat Roberts, member
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39 House Committee on Public Works and Transportation Hon. James J. Howard, then Chairman (now deceased) Hon. John Paul Hammerschmidt, Ranking Minority Member Endorser Hon. Charles Grassley, U.S. Senate Project Director: Alison Hess, 228-6516 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: September 1989 MONITORING OF MANDATED VIETNAM VETERAN STUDIES --Studies of possible long-term health effects stemming from aspects of military service in Vietnam were mandated in 1979 (Public law 96-151) and 1981 (Public Law 97-72). Both laws require the approval of study protocols and monitoring of approved studies by OTA. The Centers for Disease Control were given responsibility for designing and carrying out these studies in 1983, and, with OTA approval, have been engaged in two studies -the Vietnam Experience study and the Selected Cancers Study -since then. CDC has stated and OTA concurred that a large-scale Agent Orange study is not feasible. OTA will continue to monitor the two ongoing studies. A recent law (Public Law 99-272) contains a mandate for a study of women Vietnam veterans, and OTA is to function similarly in regard to this study. Thus far, no protocol has been approved. Similar responsibilities have been mandated to OTA by legislation (Public Law 98-160) related to "atomic veterans," military personnel exposed to atomic weapons testing. Interim Deliverables: Workshop on NAS Medical Follow-Up Agency (Sept. 1988) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Mandated by PL 96-151. Project Director: Hellen Gelband, 228-6590 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: Indeterminate UNORTHODOX CANCER TREATMENT -Nearly a million Americans will be diagnosed with cancer in 1988; about half of them will die of their cancers within five years. Conventional cancer treatments, even when successful, can be painful, disfiguring, and of long duration. Each year, thousands of U.S. cancer patients turn to methods of treatment that are not recognized as effective by orthodox medicine, and for which there is, in general, inadequate information on which to judge them. This assessment includes: 1) a description of the range of unorthodox cancer treatments generally available to U.S. citizens; 2) an examination of the roles of public and private sector bodies in evaluating and providing information about unorthodox cancer treatments; 3) a description of the information network through which patients with cancer find out about unorthodox treatments; 4) a critical review of the existing
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40 literature, both from mainstream science and from the proponents of unorthodox treatments; 5) legal and ethical issues related to unorthodox cancer treatments; 6) an examination of the potential for conducting evaluations of unorthodox cancer treatments; and 7) a discussion of guidelines for planning such calculations. These specific topics will be supplemented by related background material; e.g., a description of the ways in which medical interventions are evaluated in the orthodox systems. In a case study under this project, OTA is responding to a Joint request of more that 40 Members of Congress to evaluate a particular unorthodox cancer treatment, Immune-Augmentative Therapy (IAT), a treatment available in the Bahamas. OTA determined that existing information about IAT is not sufficient to determine its efficacy or safety, and are therefore developing a protocol for a clinical trial of this treatment. The trial, if undertaken, would be the first step toward finding out whether IAT is an effective treatment for cancer. OTA's aim is to design a protocol for a study that is feasible and that will be credible to the medical profession, the alternative cancer treament community, the public, and the Congress. Interim Deliverable: Immune-augmentative Therapy (Case Study) (Dec. 1988) Request or Affirmation of Interest House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chairman Congressional requesters and endorsers: Hon. Guy V. Molinari, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Alfonse M. D'Amato, U.S. Senate Hon. James Howard, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Robert A. Roe, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Bill Chappell, Jr., U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Mario Biaggi, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Jim Leach, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Gary L. Ackerman, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Raymond J. McGrath, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Thomas J. Downey, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. John Myers, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Dan Glickman, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Barbara A. Mikulski, then U.S. House of Representatives, now U.S. Senate Hon. Denny Smith, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Bill McCollum, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Edolphus Towns, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Charles E. Schumer, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Frank R. Wolf, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Robert J. Mrazek, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Robert C. Smith, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. James A. Traficant, Jr., U.S. House of Representatives
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41 Hon. Jim Lightfoot, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Patrick L. Swindall, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Norman F. Lent, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. James Abdnor, then U.S. Senate Hon. J. Bennett Johnston, U.S. Senate Hon. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, U.S. Senate Hon. William Lehman, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Frank Horton, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Beverly Byron, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. James H. Quillen, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Douglas Bosco, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Don Young, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. C.V. (Sonny) Montgomery, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Berkley Bedell, then U.S. House of Representatives Hon. David S. Monson, then U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Peter H. Kostmayer,U.S. House of Representatives Hon. James Weaver, then U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Charles E. Grassley, U.S. Senate Hon. Robert J. Lagomarsino, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Matthew J. Rinaldo, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Guy Vander Jagt, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Alan B. Mollohan, U.S. House of Representatives Project Director: Hellen Gelband, 228-6590 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: September 1988 DRUG LABELING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES The U.S. pharmaceutical industry is a major supplier of pharmaceuticals to the world, including many developing countries. The industry has been criticized heavily 1n the past for "mislabeling" of certain drugs sold in those countries. Labeling problems have been of two basic types: inclusion of indications for a drug's use that are not justified by scientific studies, and failure to include adequate warnings of a drug's side effects or contraindications. Leaving aside the question of past claims, the request for this assessment asks whether such labeling is occurring today. This continues to be a contentious issue in the Congress and between the pharmaceutical industry and public interest or consumer groups. Despite this attention, there has been no objective, broadly-based evaluation of this issue. In Phase I, methdology for the study was developed and tested; we determined that it would be possible to produce valid information bearing on the question of whether U.S. companies provide approporiate and adequate information for their products to be used effectively and safely in a sample of developing and newlyindustrialized countries. Analyses of labeling from Panama and Brazil were begun, based on material supplied by the manufacturers. In Kenya, representaives of government, industry, public interest and health care professionals, were interviewed by OTA staff, and labels and package inserts from U.S. products were collected.
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42 -Phase II will continue the analysis of labels from Panama, Brazil, and Kenya. A trip to a Southeast Asian country is being planned, which will follow a similar pattern to the Kenya experience, with the addition of collecting promotional material distributed and displayed by U.S. company representatives. Requesters: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Edward M. Kennedy, Ranking Minority Member (now Chairman) House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chairman Hon. Henry Waxman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment Project Director: Hellen Gelband, 228-6590. Projected Delivery Date to TAB: (Phase I) -August 1988 (Phase II) -August 1989 THE FEDERAL RESPONSE TO AIDS: CONGRESSIONAL ISSUES The growing impact of AIDS on the Nation's health continues unabated, despite the optimism generated by the discovery and rapid approval of the first palliative drug against the AIDS virus and prelminary testing of possible vaccines. Preventing the spread of the AIDS virus is the primary strategy that is available, but is dependent on as yet unresolved differences on when testing for infection is appropriate and on how to alter the behavior of high-risk groups. The nation's, and even many other countries', social, economic, legal, and political systems have all been affected to some degree by the appearance of AIDS, and controversies over AIDS have begun to affect international relations and comity among nations. Congress has responded with rapid increases in federal funds for scientific and medical research and for research and services in preventive education, and has begun to grapple with the difficult issues involved in financing AIDS-related health care. These diverse issues warrant a different approach from the usual OTA assessment, and would be oriented toward a monitoring and advisory capability within OTA to assist the increasing number of congressional committees.that have AIDS on their agendas. Interim Deliverables: Do Insects Transmit AIDS? (staff paper) (published 9/87) AIDS and Health Insurance: An OTA Survey (Staff Paper) (published 2/88) How Effective is AIDS Education? (staff paper) (Published 6/88) Impact of AIDS on the Northern California Region of Kaiser Permanente (Staff Paper) (Published 7/88) Requesters: Technology Assessment Board, with encouragement from the House Appropriations Committee Project Director: Larry Miike, 228-6590. Projected Delivery Date To TAB: Indeterminate
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43 -PREVENTIVE HEALTH SERVICES UNDER MEDICARE -Interest in health promotion and disease prevention strategies for the elderly has grown in the last ten years as a result of the search for ways to moderate the rising costs of health care in this growing segment of the population. There is a strong belief among those involved in service delivery for the elderly that preventive strategies can delay death and reduce morbidity and disabiltiy in this population. This project would bring together what is known about the effectiveness and costs of selected preventive strategies that could be implemented by Medicare. The project would emphasize clinical services (immunization, screening, and counseling). Four services have been selected for in-depth analysis, each comprising an anaylsis of the literature regarding its effectiveness or costeffectiveness in the elderly and, as appropriate, a workshop of experts to present and discuss the current state of knowledge about the service. Services with the greatest promise of impact on the health status of the elderly or on savings in Medicare or health care costs would be selected with the assistance of experts in the fields of gerontology, preventive health services, and health services evaluation. A key issue in the effectiveness of preventive health services in the elderly is whether and under what conditinos they will use the services. As part of the project OTA is examining the evidence on the use of preventive srvices by the elderly and the effect of financing and organizational factors on the rates of use or specific services. Requesters: House Committee on Ways and Means Hon. Dan Rostenkowski, Chairman Hon. Pete Stark, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health Hon. Bill Gradison, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Health Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Judy Wagner, 228-6590 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: April 1989 ADOLSCENT HEALTH Adolescence is a significant period for physical, psychological, cognitive, and social development, and thus an important time for health interventions. Violence and trauma, substance abuse, suicide, teenage pregnancy, sexually transmitted diseases, and chronic physical disabilities and handicapping conditions are among the critical health problems faced by adolescents. This project will assess the health status of adolescents and identify factors that put adolescents at risk for health problems or protect them from such problems. These factors include racial and ethnic backgrounds, socioeconomic status, gender, and developmental stage. The project would address the special needs of rural youth
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44 -and racial and ethnic minorities. Particular attention will be paid to the availability, effectiveness and accessibility of health services for adolescents, including financing, coordination, and legal aspects of access. Available data on adolescent health status will be assessed for their usefulness, and the nation's agenda for research on adolescent health and behavior will be critically reviewed. Requesters: Senate Select Committee on Indian Affairs Hon. Daniel K. Inouye, Chairman Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation Hon. Nancy L. Kassebaum, Chairman of the Aviation Subcommittee, Congressional requesters: Hon. Orrin Hatch, U S. Senate Hon. Ted Stevens, U.S. Senate Hon. Charles Grassley, U.S. Senate Hon. Claiborne Pell, U.S. Senate Hon. Edward M. Kennedy, U.S. Senate Hon. Morris Udall, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Bob Dole, U.S. Senate Hon. Robert C. Byrd, U.S. Senate Hon. William H. Gray, III, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. James M. Jeffords, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Lowell P. Weicker, Jr., U.S. Senate Hon. Quentin N. Burdick, U.S. Senate Hon. John C. Stennis, U.S. Senate Hon. Mark O. Hatfield, U.S. Senate Hon. Alan K. Simpson, U.S. Senate Hon. Alan Cranston, U.S. Senate Hon. Lawton Chiles, U.S. Senate Hon. Bob Packwood, U.S. Senate Hon. Spark Matsunaga, U.S. Senate Hon. Daniel J. Evans, U.S. Senate Hon. Arlen Specter, U.S. Senate Hon. Henry A. Waxman, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Daniel K. Akaka, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Patricia F. Saiki, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Frank H. Murkowski, U.S. Senate Hon. Christopher J. Dodd, U.S. Senate Hon. Dale Bumpers, U.S. Senate Hon. Lloyd Bentsen, U.S. Senate Hon. Daniel P. Moynihan, U.S. Senate Hon. John D. Rockefeller, IV, U.S. Senate Hon. Edward R. Madigan, U.S. Senate Hon. Thad Cochran, U.S. Senate Hon. Don Young, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Barbara Mikulski, U.S. Senate Project Director: Denise Dougherty, 228-6590 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: December 1989
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45 -RURAL HEALTH CARE The special problems of health care in rural areas have long occupied a special niche in policies designed to advance the Nation's health. Programs for recruitment, training, and deployment of health care personnel, for constructing health care facilities, and for financing health care, often have included special provisions for rural areas or attempts to mitigate the negative impacts of rural areas of policies primarily designed for and responsive to urban areas. However, rural areas continue to have high numbers of hospital closures, have had limited success in recruiting and retaining health personnel, and have difficulty in providing new medical technologies now commonly available in urban areas. This study will review and evaluate past and current rural health care efforts; examine how medical technologies have been and might be diffused into rural areas; and identify policies that might improve the quality, affordability, and accessibliity of rural health care. Requesters: Senate Rural Health Caucus Hon. Quentin N. Burdick, Co-Chairman Hon. Bob Dole, Co-Chairman Hon. Dave Durenberger Hon. Daniel K. Inouye Hon. John McCain Hon. Paul Simon Hon. John Danforth Hon. Charles Grassley Endorser: Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin Hatch, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Larry Miike, 228-6590 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: October 1989 NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN BIOTECHNOLOGY --In a series of five reports, OTA addresses the ongoing revolution in biological technology -that is, biotechnology. Each among this growing cohort of technologies carries its own scientific benefits and risks, and allied social, economic, legal, and ethical issues. A brief description of the reports follows: 1) Ownership of Human Tissues and Cells analyzes the legal, ethical and economic interests of the human sources of tissues and cells, as well as those of the physicians or researchers who obtain and develop these biological materials. The report also describes the potential of three biotechnologies for manipulating human tissues and cells to yield commercially valuable products; 2) Public Perceptions of Biotechnology is based on an OTA commissioned national survey of the state of public knowledge and opinion concerning issues of genetic engineering and biotechnology; 3)
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46 -Field-Testing Engineered Organisms: Genetic and Ecological Issues analyzes genetic and ecological issues raised by environmental applications of genetically engineered organisms. The report describes the present regulatory approach, relevant aspects of public opinion and problems of risk assessment and research support; 4) U.S. Investment in Biotechnology addresses several broad questions relating to federal, state and industrial funding of biotechnology research, including: areas of research being funded, factors influencing investment by individual states and by industry, coollaborative research arrangements, and training; and 5) Patenting Life reviews United States law relating to the patentability of micro-organisms, plants, and animals. Interim Deliverables: Ownership of Human Tissues and Cells (Special Report) (published 3/87) (Contact Gladys White, 228-6697) Public Perceptions of Biotechnology (Background Paper) (Published 5/87) (Contact Robyn Nishimi, 228-6690) Commercial Development of Tests for Human Genetic Disorders (Staff Paper) (published 2/88) (Contact Val Giddings, 228-6682) Transgenic Animals (Staff Paper) (Published 2/88) (Contact Val Giddings, 228-6682) Federal Re ulation and Animal Patents (Staff Paper) (Published 2 88) Contact Kevin O Connor, 228-6692) Field-testin En ineered Or anisms: Genetic and Ecolo ical Issues (Special Report) (Published 5 88) (Contact Val Giddings, 228-6682) U.S. Investment in Biotechnology (Special Report) (In Press) (Contact Kathi Hanna, 228-6683) Patenting Life (Special Report) (Sept. 1988) (Contact Kevin 01Conner, 228-6692) Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, then Chairman House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Senate Committee on the Budget Hon. Lawton Chiles, then Ranking Minority Member, now Chairman Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Hon. Dave Durenberger, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Toxic Substances and Environmental Oversight Project Director: Gary Ellis, 228-6681 METHODS FOR LOCATING AND ARRANGING HEALTH AND LONG-TERM CARE FOR PERSONS WITH DEMENTIA Growing awareness of the large number of persons affected by dementia, the difficulties involved in the1r care, and the lack of appropriate services for them in most communities has led to public and private efforts to establish the necessary services. Attention has focused so far on particular health and
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47 -long-term care services needed by persons with dementia and their families. Less attention has been paid to methods of locating and arranging the necessary services. Some States and localities and some private agencies have established information and referral and case management systems to help families and others obtain services for persons with dementia. In some communities, local voluntary groups, usually associated with the National Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders Association, provide information and assistance to families in locating needed services. In most communities, however, the existing information and referral and case management services fail to meet the needs of persons with dementia and their families. As a result, families and other caregivers are referred from one agency to another in a haphazard, lengthy, and sometimes fruitless search for needed services. This assessment would describe, compare, and evaluate existing methods of locating and arranging health and long-term care services for this patient group. It would identify methods that are successful in some communities and may therefore serve as models for other communities. It would focus on methods that coordinate services already provided by Federal, State, and local government programs and private agencies and on methods that support rather than supplant the efforts of private voluntary groups. Requesters Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Edward M. Kennedy, Chairman Hon. Howard M. Metzenbaum House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Hon. Henry A. Waxman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment Hon. Charles Grassley Hon. Olympia J. Snowe Project Director: Katie Maslow, 228-6688 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: November 1988 NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN NEUROSCIENCE -Neurological disorders affect 50 million Americans every year. These disorders range from simple disorientation resulting from jet lag to loss of sensation or movements in an arm or leg to the total mental and physical incapacitation that results from degenerative conditions like Alzheimer's disease. Estimates of the costs of care, treatment, and loss of productivity due to neurological disorders run as high as $300 billion per year and are expected to increase as the population ages.
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48 -In an effort to treat and prevent these disorders, scientists study the function and structure of the brain and nerve function in both health and disease. This broad area of scientific endeavor is known as neuroscience. The importance of this area of research 1s underscored by the fact that 25 Nobel prizes for medicine and physiology have been awarded to neuroscientists during the last twenty five years. Recent advances in neuroscience research have enormous potential to improve the lives of millions of Americans. A number of topics in neurology that have the greatest potential to impact our society in the next decade will be examined in this project. These topics will include: 1) Neural transplants and nerve regeneration. The state-of-the-art in research and efficacy of this technology will be examined. Legal, ethical, scientific, and regulatory issues related to sources of material for neural tranplantation will be evaluated. 2) Biological rhythms and shift work. Basic and applied research in biological rhythms and new applications to worker's scheduling, particularly in occupations overseen by the Federal Government will be described. In addition, the impact of chronic disruption of sleep-wake cycles of worker health, safety and productivity will be examined. 3) Heurotoxity. The current hazard of neurotoxins, the practices for neurotoxicity testing by private and public organizations, and the efficacy of these practices in indentifying neurotoxicity will be analyzed. In addition, this analysis will identify areas where new advances in neuroscience research may be applied to neurotoxicity testing. 4) Biochemical bases of mental illness. This examination will include review of the current level of research in mental disorders. The scientific, legal, and ethical implications of new discoveries such as genetic markers for mental disorders will also be assessed. Development and efficacy of new pharmaceuticals to combat these conditions will also be addressed. Requesters: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chairman House Committee on Veterans Affairs Hon. G.V. (Sonny) Montgomery House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Hon. Robert A. Roe, Chairman House Committee on Appropriations Hon. Silvio O. Conte, Ranking Minority Member Endorser: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Edward M. Kennedy, Chairman Project Director: Tim Condon, 228-6677 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: July 1990
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49 -GENETIC TESTING IN THE WORKPLACE -Genetic testing, as used in the workplace, encompasses two activities: screenign and monitoroing. Genetic screening involves a priori examining employees or prospective employees for certain inherited genetic traits. Genetic monitoring involves periodic testing of employees to evaluate possible changes in their genetic material that might have resulted from workplace exposures. IN 1982, OTA surveyed industry and unions to determine the extent of employer genetic testing. Despite finding that "non of the genetic tests evaluated by OTA [met] established scientific criteria for routine use in an occuapational setting," OTA foudn that companies were testing employees, and the results indicated that such testing would increase. In the intervening years, rapid advances in recombinant DNA and human molecular genetics have enormously increased the ability to identify individuals at risk for or susceptible to a variety of conditions, including thalassemias, alpha-I antritrypsin deficiency, manic-depressive disorders, heart disease, hypertension, and some neoplasias. Both the number of applications and the technical capability to detect disorders have increased. With these advances, various concerns have surfaced about new consequences positive and negative -that the new genetic technologies may have for both employers and employees. This assessment would: 1) examine the state-of-the-art (e.g., efficacy, accuracy, cost) of technologies used by empoyers for genetic screening and monitoring; 2) survey, at a minimum, the 500 largest U.S. industries, SO largest utilites, and 11 major unions to determine the current (and future) nature and extent of employer testing; 3) analyze the impacts genetic testing may have had since the 1982 OTA survey; 4) discuss ethical issues pertinent to worker testing, including worker involvement in testing decisions; and S) examine legal issues, including employment discrimation, and the role of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH). Requesters: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Ernest Hollings, Chairman Hon. John Danforth, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Albert Gore, Jr., member House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chairman House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Hon. Robert Roe, Chairman Endorser Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Edward M. Kennedy, Chairman Project Director: Robyn Nishimi, 228-6690 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: November 1989
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50 -Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division INFORMING THE NATION: THE FUTURE OF PUBLIC ELECTRONIC PRINTING, PUBLISHING AND DISSEMINATION Use of information technology -such as electronic document filing, computer-aided surveys, computerized databases, optical disks, electronic mail, electronic remote printing, and electronic bulletin boards -is already affecting and could ultimately revolutionize the public information functions of government. However, the use of such technology is complicated because of tensions involving public information, management efficiency and cost reduction, and private sector cooperation and competition. This study will: identify and describe the current institutional base for federal dissemination of public information; assess the current technological base and relevant future technological developments; evaluate present and future public information needs and how technology might help meet such needs; and identify and analyze key issues and options. These will include, for example, possible future public information roles of the Government Printing Office, executive agencies, libraries, and private firms; policies for public access to and dissemination of federal information, including policies on the depository library and statistical systems; and opportunities for innovative use of information technology in, for example, electronic remote printing of federal reports, electronic access to federal data bases used in decision support systems, and scientific and technical information exchange. Requesters: Joint Committee on Printing Hon. Charles McC. Mathias, then Chairman Hon. Frank Annunzio, then Vice Chairman, now Chairman House Committee on Government Operations Hon. Glenn English, Chairman, Subcommittee on Government Information, Justice, and Agriculture House Committee on Science, Space and Technology Hon. Robert Roe, Chairman Project Director: Fred Wood, 228-6760 Under TAB Review COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEMS FOR AN INFORMATION AGE Recent advances in information storage and transmission technologies, occurring in a newly deregulated and intensely competitive economic climate, are rapidly reconfiguring the Nation's communcations networks. The revolution in computers and communications technology has already transformed the regulation and market structure of the industry, dramatically changing the way in which information is created, processed, transmitted, and made available to individual citizens and institutions. These technologies hold promise for a greatly enhanced communications system, which can meet the changing communcations needs of an information-based society. How these
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-51 -technologies evolve will depend the public and private sectors. for evaluating these decisions, the proper Federal role. on decisions being made now in both This study will provide a context and will help Congress to decide on The assessment will explore the role the Federal Government might play in this area, with particular emphasis on the issues raised by technological advances. This study will 1) characterize the new communication technologies and explore the intricacies of coordinating them; 2) identify their potential for meeting changing communications goals and needs; 3) discuss conflicts that might stem from their development and use; and 4) examine new communications systems abroad and their potential relationships to the U.S. system. Requester: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Project Director: Linda Garcia, 228-6774 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: October 1988 SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND THE CONSTITUTION IN THE INFORMATION AGE The two centuries of American constitutional history have seen accelerating scientific advance and technological change, penetrating virtually every facet of American life. The social effects of these changes are reflected in interpretations of basic constitutional principles by Congress and the Federal courts. Several recent OTA assessments have analyzed challenges posed by new communications and information technologies to provisions related to rights of property, privacy, and freedom of speech. Characteristics of advanced technologies --such as their scale, power, speed, and unprecedented capabilities --may raise new questions about fundamental powers and constraints on goverment embodied in the the Constitution. This study will complement other bicentennial activities by focusing attention on the role of science and technology in our society, and the opportunities and challenges that they may create for democratic governance in the future. It will provide a context for discussion by public policy makers, legal and judicial scholars, scientists and engineers, and the public of the values of Constitutional stability and flexibility as we move into a third century of technological change. New technology often calls for constitutional interpretation. For example, public and private use of aerial and satellite reconnaissance capabilities may raise First and Fourth amendment questions. Genetic screening may raise questions of due process. Communications systems can enhance Federalism through decentralized governmental services, and support democratic representation by improving the flow of information between citizens
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52 and their representatives. These examples point to the need to anticipate advances in science and technology, examine the ways in which they may either raise challenges to constitutional provisions, or offer new ways of achieving constitutional goals. Interim Deliverables: Science, Technology,and the Constitution (staff paper) (published 9/87) Science, Technology,and the First Amendment (Special Report) (published 1/88) Criminal Justice, New Technolo and the Constitution (Special Report) (Published 5 88) Biology, Medicine, and the Constitution (Special Report) (July 1988) Requesters: House Committee on Judiciary Hon. Peter W. Rodino, Jr., Chairman Hon. Hamilton Fish, Jr., Ranking Minority Member Hon. Robert W. Kastenmeier, Chairman, Subcommittee on Courts, Civil Liberties, and Administration of Justice Hon. Carlos J. Moorhead, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Courts, Civil Liberties, and Administration of Justice Project Director: Vary Coates, 228-6772 COPYRIGHT AND AUDIO TAPING According to some, unauthorized duplication of copyrighted works in the home deprives copyright holders of revenue and may, in the long run, undermine the economic viability of copyright-dependent industries. Although copyright is traditionally a private right, privately enforced, Congress has, for the last five years, been attempting to formulate solutions to the perceived problem of unauthorized duplication. Although the main focus of this study is on the impact of home audio taping on the recording industry, it will also examine other copyright-dependent industries (e.g., video, computer software) that either are, or will soon be, facing similar issues. This study will build on the findings of a 1986 OTA assessment,Intellectual Property Rights in an Age of Electronics and Information, which documented fundamental problems for the law of copyright in accommodating to new developments in communication and information technologies, and which anticipated the spacific issues now facing the recording industry.
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-53 -Requesters: House Committee on the Judiciary Hon. Hamilton Fish, Jr., Ranking Minority Member Hon. Robert W. Kastenmeier, Chairman-Subcommittee on Courts, Civil Liberties, and Administration of Justice Senate Committee on the Judiciary Hon. Dennis DeConcini, Chairman -Subcommittee on Patents, Copyrights, and Trademarks Project Director: Karen Bandy, 228-6771 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: February 1989 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND SECURITIES MARKETS -Fundamental changes are taking place in the securities and related financial markets. They will affect the structure and operations of the exchanges, the links between markets, the nature of the products traded, and the strategies by which they are traded. This project will explore the role that information technologies (computers, telecommunications) play in these accelerating changes. It will examine the implications of further automation for current, proposed, or potential regulatory or oversight mechanisms. The study will use workshops and interviews with a broad range of experts, stakeholders, and public interest groups to develop and test alternative scenarios of the evolution of securities and related markets. The project is not intended to provide another diagnosis of the events of October 1987, but it will use those events, where appropriate, to illustrate trends and forces acting on the markets. Requesters: House Committee on Government Operations Hon. Jack Brooks, Chairman Hon. Doug Barnard, Jr. Chairman, Subcommittee on Commerce, Consumer, and Monetary Affairs Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman, Committee on Energy and Commerce Project Director: Vary Coates, 228-6772 Projected Belivery Date to TAB: December 1989 NEW CLEAN AIR ACT ISSUES --This OTA assessment will focus on air pollution concerns that are among the most contentious issues facing Congress in it attempt to reauthorize the Clean Air Act. The first is urban ozone. Currently the health-based air quality standard for ozone is being exceeded in about 70 urban regions, areas in which about one-third of the population of the United States lives. EPA estimates that about half of the areas will still not be in attainment by the 1987 deadline required by the Act. Second, the assessment will address the closely related problem of regional oxidants (primarily ozone), pollutants that can lower the productivity of agricultural and forested regions and contribute to violations of health-based ambient air quality standards in urban areas, often far from the sources from the sources from which the pollutants are formed. Next, while evaluating the cost-effectiveness of controlling various sources of hydrocarbon emmisions for lowering
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54 ozone levels, the assessment will also identify which of these hydrocarbons might also be toxic air pollutants. Finally, the assessment will update our ability to analyze new options for controlling acid rain, the major focus of an earlier assessment. Interim Deliverables Urban Ozone (Staff Paper) (Published 4/88) Requesters: Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Hon. Robert T. Stafford, then Chairman, now Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Hon. Henry A. Waxman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment Project Director: Robert Friedman, 228-6855 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: September 1988 MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT -Early in 1987, a barge loaded with garbage went on a long odyssey in search of a home for its cargo. This infamous voayage focused attention on a growing problem, the managment of municipal solid waste (primarily from residences, businesses, and institutions). Currently, 85 percent of municipal solid waste is sent to landfills. Some landfills, however, have been closed, and many more will reach full capacity during the next decade. Developing new landfills has been difficult because of lack of available land, environmental risks, public opposition, rising disposal costs, and increasing regulation. Muncipalities are considering other options, particularly incineration and recycling. Public opposition to incineration has increased, however, because of concerns about costs and health risks. Some people contend that it should only be used after reduction and recycling programs are fully implemented. High rates of recycling, however, have not been achieved on a widespread scale, and little effort has been devoted to waste reduction, particularly how to remove those pollutants or products that can cause harm when incinerated or landfilled. OTA will evaluate how different technologies for reducing and managing municipal solid waste can be used in an environmentally and cost-effective long-term strategy. The assessment will consist of seven tasks: 1) composition and amounts of municipal solid waste; 2) opportunities for waste reduction (i.e., reducing generation of muncipal solid waste or eliminating harmful pollutants from its components; 3) technologies and capacities for recycling, incineration, and landfilling; 4) economics of different options; 5) Federal, State, and municipal programs; 6) international experiences; and 7) the future of municipal solid waste policies (policy options).
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, -55 -Requesters: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Hon. Norman F. Lent, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Thoms A. Luken, Chairman, Subcommittee on Transportation, Tourism, and Hazardous Materials Hon. Bob Whittaker, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Transportation, Tourism, and Hazardous Materials Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Hon. Quentin N. Burdick, Chairman Hon. Robert T. Stafford, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Max Baucus, Chairman, Subcommittee on Hazardous Wastes and Toxic Substances Hon. Dave Durenberger, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Harzardous Wastes and Toxic Substances Hon. Robert A. Roe, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Paul E. Kanjorski, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. James H. Scheuer, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Tom Lewis, U.S. House of Representatives Project Director: Howard Levenson, 228-6856 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: March 1989 MANAGING LOW-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE -This project will analyze the Federal effort and state progress in implementing the Low-Level Rradioactive Waste Policy Amendments Act (LLRWPAA). THe LLRWPAA identifies Federal activities that are needed to help states meet milestones for developing disposal facilties. Several of these activities center around understanding alternative disposal technologies of low-level radiactive waste. Shallow-land burial is the disposal methods that has been used at all existing LLW disposal sites in the United States. Environmental problems have, however, been encountered at several sites, particularly those in humid regions. Several states are therefore interested in using alternative disposal technologies. Concerns have been raised, however, about the technical merits of some disposal facililty designs, including designs that would meet Federal regulations for waste that is both radioactive and defined as hazardous by the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act. In addition, it is very unclear how DOE intends to fulfill its responsibilities for disposing of waste whose radioactivity is at the upper limit of low-level radioactive waste. OTA's study will analyze the technical and institutional issues surrounding different disposal technologies for low-level radioactive waste. It will assesss DOE's range of options for managing GTCC waste. A status report of state progress in fulfilling the LLRWPAA and developing new disposal facitlites will also be given.
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-56 -Interim Deliverables: Managing Greater than Class C Low-Level Radiactive Waste (Staff Paper) (July 1988) Requesters Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Hon. Quentin N. Burdick, Chairman Hon. Robert T. Stafford, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Gretchen Hund McCabe, 228-6852 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: May 1989 CLIMATE MODIFICATION: OZONE DEPLETION AND GLOBAL WARMING -In the 1970's, widespread concern about depletion of the ozone layer around the earth's upper atmosphere led to a ban on chloroflurocarbon use in aerosols in the United States (as well as Sweden and Canada). The issue retreated from the public view until 1985 when British researchers identified a hole in the ozone layer over Antaractica larger than the continential U.S. At the same time, concern over global warming--the "greenhouse effect"--was gaining attention. New sophisticated Global Circulatio~ Models reaffirmed concerns that increased levels of carbon dioxide (CO2), combined with rising concentrations of other gases (methane, cloroflurocarbons, and nitrous oxide), are likely to raise temperatures between 1 and 4C by the middle of ~he next century. Such warming will result in a rise in sea level and shifts in rainfall patterns, affecting both marine and terrestrial environments. Until recently, stratospheric ozone depletion and the "greenhouse effect'' were treated as separate issues. However, many gases participate in both phenomena. There is now general scientific consensus that human activities are affecting global climate. While many ongoing national and internatinal efforts are underway attempting to quantify the magnitude and timing of these changes, policy responses that can be implemented to deal with such changes are still disputed. OTA proposes to characterize, economic sector by sector, the major contributors to climate modification. To the extent possible, we will identify areas where gains in efficiency, product substitution, conservation or other options can ameliorate ozone depletion and/or temperature increase. We will develop a matrix of possible short-term, medium-term, and long-term policy responses to these problems. As well, relative ease and expense of implementation will be evaluated.
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57 Requesters Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Hon. Quentin N. Burdick, Chairman Hon. Robert T. Stafford, Ranking Minority Member Hon. George J. Mitchell, member Hon. John H. Chafee, member Hon. Max Baucus, member Hon. Dave Durenberger, member Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Ernest F. Hollings, Chairman Hon. John C. Danforth, Ranking Minority Member Endorsers House Committee on Foreign Affairs Hon. Dante B. Fascell, Chairman Hon. William S. Broomfield, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Gus Yatron, member Hon. Daniel A. Mica, member Hon. Mervyn Dymally, member Hon. Chester G. Atkins, member Hon. Lawrence J. Smith, member Hon. Benjamin Gilman, member Hon. Connie Mack, member Project Director: Rosina Bierbaum, 228-6845 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: May 1989 GEARING UP FOR SAFETY -Speed, flexibility, and cost-effectiveness have made motor carriers the dominant means of commercial transport. Numbers of trucks and the miles traveled have increased annually, and so have the number of accidents. This report examines the commercial motor vehicle safety record and Federal safety regulations and programs to determine whether changes are necessary to improve highway safety. The economic impacts of safety requirements on different parts of the trucking industry are identified. Policy options include safety improvements in vehicle technologies, roadway design, and driver programs. Requesters House Committee on Public Works and Transportation Hon. James J. Howard, Chairman House Committee on Government Operations Hon. Cardiss Collins, Chairmwoman, Subcommittee on Government Activities and Transportation Endorsers Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation Hon. Ernest F. Hollings, Chairman Hon. John C. Danforth, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Wendell H. Ford, Chairman, Subcommittee on Aviation Hon. Nancy Landon Kassebaum, Ranking Minority Member
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58 Hon. J. James Exxon, Chairman, Subcommittee on Surface Transportation Hon. Robert W. Kasten, Jr., Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Edith Page, 228-6399 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: July 1988 SPECIAL RESPONSES WORKSHOP ON SOVIET VIEW OF THE CONVENTIONAL BALANCE OF FORCES IN EUROPE (National Defense Authorization Acxt for 1988-89 established a Conventional Defense Study Group to examine issues related to the balances of forces of NATO and the Warsaw Pact. The Comptroller General of the United States requested OTA to convene a Workshop on Soviet Views of the Conventional Balance in Europe.) Project Director: Nancy Lubin, 228-6432 Projected Completion Date: August 1988 PHYSICIAN PAYMENT REVIEW COMMISSION ACTIVITIES -(Mandated by Public Law 99-272.) Project Director: Gloria Ruby, 228-6590 Projected Completion Date: Indeterminate PROSPECTIVE PAYMENT ASSESSMENT COMMISSION -(Mandated by Public Law 98-21, Section 601.) Project Director: Elaine Power, 228-6590 Projected Completion Date: Indeterminate INSTITUTIONAL PROTOCOLS FOR MAKING DECISION ABOUT LIFE-SUSTAINING TREATMENT -(Special Report) -(Requested by Senate Special Committee on Aging, Hon. John Heinz, Ranking Minority Member, and the House Select Committee on Aging, Hon. Edward Roybal, Chairman) Project Director: Claire Maklan, 228-6687 In Press ARTIFICIAL INSEMINATION: MEDICAL AND SOCIAL CHOICES -(Background Paper) -(Requested by Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs, Intergovernmental Relations and Human Resources Subcommittee of the House Committee on Government Operatins, and the Subcommittee on Civil Service, Post Office, and General Services of the Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs.) Project Director: Alta Charo In Press
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59 -TECHNOLOGY AND DISABILITY -(Staff Paper) Committee on Labor and Human Resources, Education and Labor and House Committee Technology) Project Director: Barbara Boardman Projected Completion Date: July 1988 (Requested by the Senate House Committee on on Science, Space and MEDICAL APPROPRIATENESS OF OPTOMETRISTS VS. OPHTHALMOLOGISTS IN PROVIDING CERTAIN SURGERY-RELATED SERVICES -(Staff Paper) -Requested by Subcommittee on Health of the House Committee on Ways and Mean, Hon. Fortney Stark, Chairman, and Hon. Bill Gradison, Ranking Minority Member) Project Director: Barbara Boardman Projected Completion Date: July 1988 OPPORTUNITIES AND PROBLEMS CONCERNING DISSEMINATION OF FEDRAL SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL INFORMATION (Staff Paper) -(Requested by House Committee on Science, Space and Technology, Hon. Robert A. Roe, Chairman) Project Director: Fred Wood, 228-6760 Projected Completion Date: Fall 1988 AN ANALYSIS OF "BUY AMERICA" PROPOSALS FOR OFFSHORE DRILLING RIGHTS AND PRODUCTION FACITILITIES (Technical Memorandum) -(Requested by Senate Committee on Appropriations, Hon. Robert C. Byrd, Chairman, Subcommitee on Interior and Releated Agencies; and House Committee on Appropriations, Hon. Sidney R. Yates, Chairman, Subcommittee on Interior and Related Agencies.) Project Director: Peter Johnson, 228-6862 Projected Completion Date: July 1988
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-60-I. E. New Assessaents Approved During the Quarter Full Assessments* o Drug Labeling in Developing Countries Phase II o Adolescent Health o Rural Health Care o Information Technology and Securities Markets Approved at 6/21/88 TAB meeting
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-61 -F. Third Quarter FY 1988 Action on Bills Mentioning OTA Public Laws P.L. 100-360 To amend title XVIII of the social Security Act to provide protection against catastrophic medical expenses under the medicare program, and for other purposes. (Signed into law 7/1/88) Requires the Director of the Office of Technology Assessment to appoint an 11-member Prescription Drug Payment Review Commission by January 1, 1989. Introduced S. 2068 To amend the Marine Protection, Research and Sanctuaries Act to protect marine and near-shore coastal waters through establishment of regional marine research centers. (Placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders on 6/29/88) Cites a finding from OTA's report, Wastes in Marine Environments, that the overall health of coastal waters is declining or threatened as partial justification for the proposed act. H.R. 2668 To amend the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and for other purposes. (Referred to the subcommittee on Telecommunications and Finance on 6/29) Requires the SEC to appoint a panel of experts to investigate the adequacy of federal securities laws and rules and regulations for protection of the public interest and the interests of investors, and authorizes OTA to assist the panel in the performance of its function. S. 1966 To amend the Public Health service Act to improve information and research on biotechnology and the human genome, and for other purposes. (Referred to the Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Agricultural Research, and Environment 6/29) Establishes a National Biotechnology Policy Board and requires OTA to give the Board such information as it requires. Also establishes a National Advisory Panel on the Human Genome and directs it to utilize OTA's report, Mapping Our Genes. Establishes the New Products Research Board and directs that one member shall be appointed by the director of the Office of Technology Assessment. H.R. 1720 To replace the existing AFDC program with a new Family Support Program which emphasizes work, child support, and need-based family support supplements [and for other purposes]. (Received in Senate on 12/17; passed Senate on 6/16 with S. 1511, which does not include requirements for OTA, as a substitute after the enactment clause) Requires OTA to develop model performance standards suitable for application to employment and training programs carried out under the act and to consult with the executive branch as the actual standards are developed.
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-62 -S. 2478 To provide for a 2-year Federal budget cycle, and for other purposes. (Introduced 6/7) Requires OTA to cooperate with Committees as they review the programs under their jurisdiction. H.R. 2508 ands. 1265 To amend the Public Health Service Act and the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938 to provide minimum health benefits for all workers in the United States. (Referred to the House Subcommittee on Commerce, Consumer Protection, and Competitiveness on 5/28; reported in the Senate on 5/25) Requires Congress to analyze proposed additional health benefits and estimate the economic and health impacts of proposed benefits prior to imposing requirements on employers, and names OTA as a possible institution to perform such an analysis. H.R. 4647 To provide for the establishment of the National Commission on Natural Resources Disasters, to provide for increased planning and cooperation with local fire fighting forces in the event of forest fires, and for other purposes. (Referred to the Subcommittee on Forests, Family Farms, and Energy 5/23) Directs OTA to provide the Commission with information it requires and to furnish personnel and support services when mutually agreeable. H.R. 4471 To amend the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 with respect to the activities of the Overseas Private Investment Corporation, to make supplemental authorizations of appropriations for the Board for International Broadcasting, and for other purposes. (Received in the Senate 5/17 and referred to the Committee on Foreign Relations) Expresses the sense of the Congress that OTA should perform and independent evaluation of the African Development Foundation. (See Grassroots Development: The African Development Foundation, published 6/88.) S. 533 To establish the Veterans' Administration as an executive department. (Reported on 5/12) Establishes a National Commission on Executive Organization and Management and requires OTA to prepare briefing papers for the Commission within 120 days of when this act takes effect. S. 2282 To require reauthorizations of budget authority for Government programs at least every ten years, to provide for review of Government programs at least every ten years, and for other purposes. (Introduced 4/14 and referred to the Committees on the Budget and on Governmental Affairs) Directs Committees, as they review programs, to coordinate their efforts with OTA and the other congressional agencies.
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-63 -Of Interest R.R. 4587 Making appropriations for the Legislative Branch for the fiscal year ending September 30, 1989, was passed by the House with a mark of $17,505,000 for OTA, and passed by the Senate with a mark of $18,203,000 for OTA. CR B2346, 4/21/88 OTA's reports, Technology and Structural Unemployment and Plant Closings, were cited frequently in the debate on the advance notice provisions of the trade bill.
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Publication Briefs
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OTA REPORT BRIEF April 1988 Mapping Our Genes-Genome Projects: How Big? Hovv Fast? A genome is the total DNA in each cell of an organ ism. The genome contains the genetic blueprint for the organisms form and function. Genome projects use techniques of molecular genetics to map the structure of all or part of an organism's genome. The goal of genome projects is to collect information systemati call v about the genetics of entire organisms and to de velop nev, technologies for doing so. Genome projects wouid lay a foundation for human genetics research in the 21st century. They include several components: improvement of genetic databases and linkage among them; genetic linkage maps-sets of markers on chromosomes to locate genes of interest for further study; ordered sets of stored DNA segments that cover large expanses of chromosomes; new technologies to handle, detect, clone, se quence, and purify DNA pilot projects to determine the sequence of DNA in chromosomes or large regions of chromosomes; and EARTH CHROMOSO-, ... FRAGMENT :/1 ////c/ NUCLEOTOE BASE PAIRS new computer software and hardware for analysis of genetic map and sequence information. The principal justifications for genome projects are scientific, although technological spinoff will also result. Genome projects will produce, for example. genetic tests for human diseases. instruments widely useful in biotechnology. and information to deveiop pharmaceuticals based on knowledge of human genes. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the C.S. Department of Energy (DOE) have special genome programs. NIH's projects, projected at S28 million for 1989, will develop new methods to study the genetics of complex organisms and new tools to analyze result ing data: biological methods, computational methods, and other resources. DOE proposes, in its 198 budget request for S18 million, to generate sets of DNA representing human chromosomes. to develop meth ods for computer analysis of genetic data, and to de vise instruments for molecular genetics. NIH funds the largest fraction of genetics research. a large majority of genetics researchers. and most ot the relevant research infrastructure. DOE develops instruments, manages large-scale projects. has extensive computer expertise, houses the DNA sequence database, and funds the national laboratories. DOE was the first agency to commit its resources to genome projects explicitly. The National Science Foundation (NSF\ is developing several biologv centers nation wide. has genetics and instrumentation .s:rJ.nt ;:,,02:-;i:;i, comparabie m size to DOE s. and nas a ie;,:1siJ.t1\"t: :-:--,a:, date to coordinate science amcng Federal agencies. Are Genome Projects Big Science i Genome projects would be larger and more directed than most research in biology. but small in scaie compared to high-energy phvsics proiects and space programs. Genome pro1ects will require sustained com mitments oi substantial resources. with more centra: coordination than 1s usual in genetics research. A C'OE advisorv committee and a committee ot the \:at:ona; Academv ot Sciences have recommended annuai b1.:Jgets ot 5200 million oe:-\e.:i:-tor genome pro1ec:s ~enome pro1ects would be direct!\iinic.ed to ongoin~ re search in genetics and would produce usetui resuit, long beiore they were completed. \iew tacilit1es dedi cated to genetic mapping and sequencing may or mav not prove necessary: technologies yet to be developed will determine the need for such facilities. The Office ot Technology Assessment 1OTA1 is an analytical arm ot the C.S. Congress. OTA:s basic f.unction is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OTA. U.S. Congress, Washington, DC 20510-8025. Phone: 202.'224-9241. iohn H. Gibbons. DirectL0r.
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Each agency thus has a distinct contribution to make to genome projects. Attempts to consolidate author :ty at a single agency might simplify some manage :ne!1t problems. but '.he difficulty or choosing which .1~encv :nignt delay work. threaten the aggregate bud get. and would not solve problems ot coordination with foreign and private sector efforts. An alternative option is an interagency working group composed of academic scientists, government agency representa tives, industrial scientists, and other experts. Are Genome Projects Important? The importance of databases, computer analysis, new technology development, and various types of gene maps is undisputed. These have been called "high priority normal science," because they address criti cal research needs and promise to make research more efficient by doing once systematically what would otherwise be done piecemeal. The value of massive sequencing remains in dispute and can be resolved only by pilot projects. Gene maps and DNA sequence data will be most useful if the entire research community has access to them. This will require special planning by Federal re search agencies. Policies of Federal agencies can also affect the rate and magnitude of commercial applica tion. Patent policies of NIH, DOE. and NSF can ex pedite commercialization of products resulting from rederally funded research. Copies of the OT A report. "Mapping Our GenesGenome Projects: How Big? How Fast?" are available from the Superintendent of Documents. U.S. Government Pnnr:ng Office. ',\!ashin~on DC 20-J02-
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.,1:ATUco\o; '~*~' OTA REPORT BRIEF -,,,. -~ ... -:r ... ----May 1988 r, .. L ,.,, Book Preservation Technologies Even in today's high tech society, books are the prin cipal records of human civilization. Over the centu ries, books have become the most reliable and perma nent records available, but, in the last century, that reliability has been threatened by the use of "modem" acidic paper, which becomes brittle and unusable in a relatively short time. Books printed since the mid1800s are deteriorating en masse in libraries the world over. The U.S. Library of Congress initiated a major pres ervation program in the early 1970s and developed a mass deacidification process that is now being tested at a pilot plant. Planning is underway to design and construct a full-scale facil ity that could treat about 1 million books per year. --------------..,..;..~ OTA's findings include: The diethylzinc (DEZ) mass deacidification proc ess developed by the Library of Congress produces effective and uniform paper deacidifi cation, and leaves an adequate alkaline reserve on treated book papers. While substantial life extension benefits of DEZ mass deacidification are generally accepted, more quantitative testing is needed to determine spe cific benefits to the Library's collection. The DEZ deacidification system can be safely operated but some hazards are inherent in that .:i,-,oro :rea,r: :..1:Jrarv J' :.;n9.-ess process and risks will always be present. Safety practices will al ways require caretul. consistent top man agement attention. Of those processes for which OTA had suffi cient data, no other mass deacidification system meets as many of the Library s cri teria for ease and ef fectiveness as does the DEZ process, but two alternatives :ner:t The Library's process is unique and effective but also presents some new engineering and safety con cerns because it makes use of a highly reactive chemical-diethylzinc-as the de acidification agent. OT A's technical review of this program indicates a high ?Otential tor success in meeting the library's stated goals. However, the proBrittle book from the Library of Congress collection ~ome cons1aerJ.~~l'r: 1Wei To and Book keeper I, The effective gram is still in the developmental stage with difficult and complex tasks ahead. Despite the credible pilot plant program currently underway, additional work is needed to determine accurate costs for a full-scale plant and how such a plant will be managed. Also, the apparent competition among several firms and in stitutions for the best deacidification process would make continued evaluation of the relative costs and effectiveness of alternate deacidification processes prudent. ness and other aspects of these alternatives must be more carefully checked if they are considered, but present indications are that these alternatives could be lower cost than the DEZ process. Copies of the OTA report, 'Book PreserJation Technol ogies, are available from the Superintendent of Documents. U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington. DC .:0-102-.:;32,5 r 202! 7"83-3238. Tire GPO stock number :s os.:-J0301103--l: the pnce is 55.00. Copies or the revort or congres sional use 11re avaziable by cailirzg -1-SO
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,:it~ OTA REPORT BRIEF .. -,\fay 1988 Technology and the American Economic Transition: The American economy has entered a period of fundamental change. During the next two decades, new technologies, rapid increases in foreign trade, and the changing tastes and values of Americans are likely to reshape virtually every product, every service, and every job in the United States. These forces will shake the foundations of the most secure American busi nesses. Eight congressional committees asked the Office of Technology Assessment to take a broad look at the opportunities and risks created by the new environment. OT A's response describes the economy as a set of complex networks that convert the skills and savings of Americans into amenities like health, food, edu cation, and recreation (see figure). It also develops a set of specific hypotheses about the way economic networks could operate in the future. The analysis makes no attempt to forecast the future. Instead, it attempts to provide the clearest possible description of the avail able choices and their implications. It measures progress both in tenns of income growth, the quality of amenities, and the number and quality of jobs. The networks emerging in the economy are likely to be relatively decentralized and able to deliver products and services tailored to comparatively small, fast Choices for the Future moving markets. Imported products will be used throughout the economy. The economic networks are also likely to be less dependent on natural resources and much more dependent on the intellectual and interpersonal skills of people. They are likely to depend criti cally on the ability of the Nation's educational system to produce people with versatile skills, and to maintain and upgrade these skills. The study identifies many of the changes that have already occurred because of this ongoing economic transition. The number of lawyers, scientists, and dataentry clerks needed to supply Americans with food, for example, is now roughly equal to the number of farmers. The mix of purchased goods and services. as well as unpaid personal time. used by Americans to achieve recreation, health and other amenities has also changed. Most of the new jobs created in the last sev eral years have been in managerial. professional. sales. and technical occupations. In addition, there has been considerable growth in the purchase of services by American businesses and households. Services once provided at home by house hold members. such as care of children and the elde!+1. are now purchased. Decline of free time. especially by women as they continue to enter the work force. has Jobs Required To Provide Amenity in 1984 =ca a -m @,ill@l@j -aus1ng aW anscorrar,on -E ~H M "981tn Minmmm @J -'.W -g !. :::9rs C:ar9 -ll Im! Wm'1 '::,car.cr %1 ::9,, ::,.: _:,.,"' -E -H ra : '. ; ,, r 9 -E@ ~mm :;[] :,;."--'=" --E(~:rn :J :9r59 -~~HE! @fil ':, CCC'.S -E ~li if@@ J o '5 ... 1ac~1ne 3. -.r.3,:s::c.r:.3.r on .:cer:3.rors. Lacorers, .3na -::r..,..~rs ::,.gc:s1or. ;; .. oouc~.cn ,',or ... 13,s ::':":':':: ='Joe ::,gcarWO:"".?. =-... ~, 5er. ,;e :1cr~,grs = ~s_.~ --.:., -:-~--"-BBREVIATIONS: Clotn,rG !, Pers. Care Clothing & Personal Cara. Pars. 8us1. !, Comm. = Personal Business & C.:immunicat1on ., e.c. = ,at e1sewnere c1ass1tiea. The Otfice ot Technology Assessment iOTAJ is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress. OTA's basic function is to help legi,,!ators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Addre~,: OT.-\. L .S. Congress. Washington. DC 20510-8025. Phone: 202, 22'1-IJ241. lohn H. Gibbons. Director.
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also meant, for example, that more meals are eaten outside the home. At the same time, some services once purchased. such as movies, can now be provided J.t b.or:1e :hrough VCRsi. These and other shitts in c2nsumpt:on. production. and employment patterns w11l continue and perhaps accelerate as changing tech nology. trade and tastes further influence the shape of the future economic networks. The changes before us offer unprecedented opportunities for growth, but they also contain the seeds of potential stagnation and decline. It is not dear, for ex ample, whether the majority of Americans will be able to find attractive opportunities for work, or whether only a credentialed elite will enjoy such opportunities. Failure to take advantage of emerging technologies and to grasp the new rules of international trade could leave America bypassed by nations that have discov ered better ways to profit from innovation. While fundamental change is underway, few fea tures of the change are inevitable. The Nation's future has probably never been less constrained by the cost of energy or materials or the limits of human strength, dexterity, or memory. Much less depends on physical limits to what can be done and much more on what Americans choose to do. One of the most critical issues is whether the flexi bility and dynamism essential to progress in the emerg ing economy will come at the expense of individuals, or whether individuals themselves will become more flexible because of continuous opportunity for learn ing and growth. In the past it seemed necessary to make a Faustian compact with technology: efficiency could be improved only by sacrificing individuality. Efficiency demanded mass production of uniform products. and a reasonable income often required acceptance of a constraining and narrowly defined occupation. Emerging technology may make it possible to avoid making such choices. Can America operate a dynamic and growing economy and navigate a transition to a new, more flexi ble, economic structure without falling into any potential traps? Specifically, can the nation develop a set of marketplace rules that bring private and public goals into greater harmony without stifling the innovation and entrepreneurship needed to reach these goals? Can [ Structure of the Analysis vaIue-Aaaea 5av1ni;a1 1n.,,.t'T'lenl 11. Proauctlon ::lecloe t ii ~raae \ ;:-.-:. .... ---.. .... \ 3ooas ano Ser '1Ic9s both workers and investors be given sufficient incen tives to undertake major changes in production sys tems? Can a major transformation be managed so that unavoidable trauma will not uniformly be borne by a single group 7 The assessment argues that the answer to all these questions is yes-but only given an unflinching reex amination of some of the most cherished notions about the way businesses are managed internally, the .vay networks of enterprises work together. and the wav government sets the rules under which businesses and individuals make their choices. One feature of the transformation seems particularly clear. Returning to an economy like that of the 1960s is not one of our practical choices. Copies of the OT.4. report. Technology ,md t/11? ..\mer ican Economic Transition: Choices for the F:tture. are a,:azi able from the Superintendent of Documents. U. 5. Govern ment Printing Office. Washington, DC 20402-9325 1.::0.2J 783-3238. The GPO stock number is 052-003-01096-8: the price is 520. 00. Copies of the report for congressional use are available by calling 4-8996. Summaries of revorts are available at no charge from the Office of Technology Assessment.
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,, ,t,rES r,.,,.,.. ....... ~ ;;ft~ OTA REPORT BRIEF May 1988 Infertility: Medical and Social Choices Americans spent an estimated S1 billion on medi cal care in 1987 to combat infertility ( defined as a cou ple's inability to conceive after 12 months of inter course without contraception). As many as half the infertile couples seeking treatment are ultimately un successful. despite trying various avenues of treatment. 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 Married Couples and lniertillty, 1965-82 (11.2%) lnfenile couples, 1965-82 (percent o1 married couples with female age 15 to 44) (8.5%) Among those seeking treatment, 85 to 90 percent are treated with conventional medical or surgical ther apies, which are still the most successful and widely used approaches to overcoming infertility. This cate gory includes ovulation induction, surgery, and arti ficial insemination. Two new, noncoital reproductive technologies-in vitro fertilization (IVF) and gamete intrafallopian transfer (GIFT)-offer hope to infertile couples who could not be successfully treated other wise. These two techniques are being practiced with increasing frequency, but proficiency varies widely. 0 .___,_ ________ ......, ___ ....__ ___ ,....__ ... 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 Physician Office Visits for Infertility, 1966-84 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 Intertility affects an estimated 2.-1 million married couples I data from 1982). Although there has been no increase in either the number of infertile couples or the overall incidence of infertility in the population, the number of office visits to physicians for infertility serv ices rose from about 600,000 in 1968 to about 1.6 mil lion in 1984. Concomitant increases occurred in the memberships of the American Fertility Society and other professional organizations for physicians who ::eat intertile patie!1ts. American Fertility Society Membership, 1965-86 10,000 7,500 5,000 2,500 Preventing infertility is difficult. Nevertheless, an estimated 20 percent of infertility in the United States -that resulting from chlamydia, gonorrhea, or other sexually transmitted diseases-is preventable. o.__ ........ ___ ...._ ________ ..__ __ _..._ __. Surrogate motherhood is more a social solution to infertility than a medical technology. An estimated 100 1965 1970 1975 Year SOURCE: Office of Tecnnology Assessment. 988 1980 1985 Some Causes of Increasing Requests for Infertility Services in the 1980s \lore couples mth :::nmar, nter~1l1tv .i.g,ng Jf :ne ::aoy ooom ::ieneratIon Delayea cn1I0bearing; more oeopIe ,n nIgner risk age groups Ch1I0bearing condensea into shorter intervals Delayed conceptton due to prior use of oral contraceptives Increasing proport10n of ,nfertile couples seeKIng care Jecreasea suppIy oi infants available for aooption Heightened expectations Larger number of people in higher income brackets with infertility problems Larger percent of infertile couples are primarily infertile increasing number of ohysIcIans provIaing ,nfert1l1tv services Greater ::iemana 'ram private patients More sophIstIcated diagnosis ano treatment At least 169 sites In the United States offering in vitro fertilization or gamete intratallopian transfer \lore conaucIve soc,aI -n,iieu 3apy.noom generation expec:s :o control their own fertility ?roiam1ly movement Increased dIscussIon of sexual matters due to the AIDS ep1aemIc Extensive media coverage :=1,olut1on ,Jr new -eprocuc:ive :ec~noI0G,es ~rt1t,c1a1 ,serr1"1arc0 Surrogate mothernooa in vitro 'ert1I1zat1on ,IVF) Gamete ,ntraiaIloP1an transfer .GIFn Cryopreservat1on SOURCE. Aaa01ea ;,om S.O .i.ra1 ana W. Cates. Jr .. The Increasing Concern With Infertility: Why Now"" ;ourna1 of rne American .wea,cal Assoc1at1on 250:2327-2331 "983 The Office of Technology Assessment IOTA) is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress. OTA's basic function rs to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes .l.,_:d~P,, (ff .l._ T. c:: (',,rq,PSS '-'-'1"t'i!'1'2'("' ~c :::'.0510-8025 ~1.,,,ne :o: ::-t-.J:-t:. r,+!'1 H'. GiH-,>[1" c,:,_,,-"
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surrogate mother arrangements may be concluded an nually in the coming years. The legal status of these J.rram;ements is today unsettled. althougl). legislation .1...iciressing some J.spects or surrogacy has oeen ;:,assed m :..ouis1ana. Arkansas. '.\ievada. and Kansas. State court decisions have consistently found surrogacy con tracts to be unenforceable, even though they have split on whether the contracts are legal. In addition to offering hope to some infertile couples, in vitro fertilization permits researchers to view for the first time human reproduction in progress. Un derstanding the interactions between egg and sperm has potentially broad application not only for concep tion. but for contraception as well. Researchers seek ing Federal funding to work in this area, however, have faced the stifling effects of a de facto moratorium since 1980 on Federal funding of research involving human in vitro fertilization. U.S. public policy related to infertility is difficult to establish because of a wide range of sometimes con flicting ethical views. Concerns focus on three prin cipal ethical issues-the right to reproduce, the moral status of an embryo, and research with patients. At least eight other nations (Australia. Canada, the Federal Republic of Germany. France. Israel. :he :\iether lands. Sweden. J.nd :he Cnited '.
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... :~--&;, OTA REPORT BRIEF \lay 1988 Seismic Verification of Nuclear Testing Treaties Technologies that :vere ong1nall_v developed to studv earthquakes :nay now enable the L"nited States to verify a treaty with the Soviet L"nion to further limit the testing of nuclear weapons. Cnderground nuclear explosions release their energy 1n less than one-millionth ot a second, ,;aporizing rock and creating vibrations that travel through the Earth as seismic waves. By recording and analyzing these waves, seismology plays a central role in verifying arms control agreements that limit the testing of nuclear weapons. Present treaties limit the U.S. and U.S.S.R. to test ing underground and at yields no greater than 150 kilo tons. (One kiloton is approximately the explosive power of l. 000 tons of T~T: the bomb dropped on Hiroshima was approximately 13 kilotons I kt). I Al t.hough these treaties have had positive environmental and arms control impacts. they have not prevented the -.:e:elcpme'.lt N '.lew :-ombs and .varheads. CJnse--~~e:::i:: ;,;uOlic interest in J co~ple~e test 2J.n or 1 :1:ucn :cnver :.hreshold remains strong and each ::ear a :.umber or proposals are brought before the Con-5ress to turther limit the testing ot nuclear weapons. Principal Findings \fonitoring :::e'.-::-~:c ~(_";',:~,_,,ri:-1'2 ::e~.vorks are :;c\v ex:re~el~: sc)~r:s:;uteci .1nci :~c:l\e re;;1.:1r;.-._.1oie c.:ipaodit;es .. -\ '.':l'"rl c;u.:iiitv network could detect .:ind :dentify with confi ciec1ce nuclear explosions well-below 1 kt, if no attempt were made to muffle the seismic signal or spoot the seismic network. The figure on the reverse side, for example, shows. the signal of a l 4 kt explosion recorded from a distance of 3,800 km. However, a country attempting to test clandestinely would presumably use every means to reduce the size of the seis :nic signal created by the explosion and tool the mon :tonng :1etworK. For example. a ;:,orential evasion :-:-:e,hod would be to ::1uifle J. small clandestine nuclear -:x;iiosion 's,v setting it oii in a l.:irge :.inderground -~J\:~: .-1nJ JttnOcte ~re ~L:.ifled :,;;ignals :(~ __ 1 '.J.rs.:e __ ..... ,2:-:-':c:1! ,:>".:'i .. :si.()'."', ~:-.J.t :s s;r::.' ... :.:J.:"'.e,-.:1J.si: :::c: :r~ _::--. Se!smic monitoring capability ;s :imited by our abrl itv to demonstrate that all credible evasion scenarios could be defeated. \!onitoring small explosions is more difficult because there are more met.hods ot evasion and ;;iore innocent signals I e 6 ., earthquakes and large quarry blasts! from which such a :est .voulci :ceed :o be distinguished. Countering evasion scenarios should be approached through a combination oi seisr..1c rr.eth ods, treatv constraints, and other monitoring methods. Cons~quently, the capabilities ot anv give!l seis mic monitoring network will depe!ld on how :he tasK is approached and what supplementary provisions are negotiated within the treaty. Ultimately, there will always be a limit to the capability of any given monitoring network, and hence there will alwavs be a threshold below which the uncertainty of any monitoring system will increase. Determining the level that cannot be adequately verified is a political judgment of the point at which the risks of a treaty outweigh its benefits. How Low Can We Go? Treaties with low-yield testing :imits '.:ou'.~: ~e,.:;:..::re seismic stJ.tions :hroughou~ ~he )(1\:e~ !-:""' :1-n ::---:,~:> s~ur.s e.g. ~utiticati(.:n, 1._)~si:e .~srec:.c:: -_, ~...,_J:-".,~.e large che:nical explosions .:ind stri:-,gec1t :est::-.g restr;c tions to limit opport:mit:es tor -::':aciir:g :~e ::-:,Jrc;:or ing network. If such restrictions could be :.egotiated. most experts believe :hat a high-quality. sell-run ::etwork ot internal stations coulci cor-.t:C:e:'t:; :-::on;:or a :hreshold ,lf around 5 !(t. Expert ooin1on .:ibout :he lmvest ::ields '.hat could ~eiic.1blv ::-e :-::c:'.::,_-,ec~ ,J:c..::e~ ~:-CJ~ :-,) ~12 :,: _:~~':':'.~~::-:~ ':-"', :...:.~c..::--::e~:~ ... :.~ :ec:--:n:c..11 ~rov1s1ons CJ.rt C'e ~e~ct:J.:ec .. '\'-. :-:-::...:.c:--. :;--_e use of high frequencies ',vii! ,mprove our c:i~Jc,;:::. and what levels or confidence are :-iecessar:: :o ensure that the Soviet Union would not risk :esting above :~.e threshold. Lower thresholds or even a complete ban could still be considered verifiable it. taking both se:s rnic and non-seismic r:iet.hods into account. :he sigrnri cance or i..tndetected violations should :he: o~cur, would be outweighed 6y the '::,e:1erits ,Jr sue, .:i :::-e:i::: Soviet Compliance r 1. I c.xrens1\e s~J.t1:sti.CJl st:..rL1tes :-:J.\'t:' e., .:1r:---:: ....,_e~: ~:-:e-_:,::,-~ribucion l_,r est1~.Jted 1. :elGs or '='<-~!L'~i1__':-'.~ _:.~ )t_,::e~ L:Jr.s1sce~: .1, 1::: -=-=--r::~il..1rce ',\:::--."'"'t: :_5,:: :,: .::--:~ 'r--~e Tb.reshoic T esr Ban T :-e.Jty. L~e jist:-:2L::0r. ---::1._,\:e~ :ests indicates :~at JCout 10 L~ut 0r \J\e!" .::c S\...,~::ec explosions since '.he signing or :he Ti-,resnoic:: Test 3c.1n Treaty in 1o74 could have estim.:iteci '::elds .\1,h cen tral values above the 150 kt threshold limit. c:epend ing on how the estimace is macie. :-l:owe:er. .:ill ot these T:-:e Ottice ot Technology .-\ssessment 10TAJ is Jn Jnalvtical arm or the L.S. Con,::,,s. ,.::-~.-. ::-.1s1c :.::--,c::cr. .s to ne!p '.egisiators .rnt:c:pate .1.r.d plan tor >he positive Jnd negJtive impacts o-l techr"' ,,~1:.1. changes -\ddress: OTA. L.S. Congress. Washington. DC 20510-8025. Phone: 202 22-1-02-11. r.:rn C :Ccons. ,~re',-:,,,
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Verification of the TTBT and the P'.'JET The 197-! Threshold Test Ban Treaty and the 1976 Peaceful >iuclear Explosions Treaty remain unratified in part because of concerns that the size of Soviet ex plosions cannot be measured with adequate confi dence. As a solution to the problem of uncertainty in vield estimation, the use of an on-site hydrodynamic ~ethod. called CORRTEX, has been proposed. The drawbacks compared to seismic methods are that CORRTEX requires pre-notification and full cooper ation of the host country to the extent that foreign per\ ~lield treat'v and :--:.o~e ror .Jetec~in2 ::a:--:-:t:st:~e ~c:5:::-:.:: Ii the Soviet test site sere seism(cally caL8rareci J.:1-ci advanced seismic methods ,vere utilized. :l--.e :..::1ce, tainty in seismic yield estimation could be reduced :o a level comparable to CORRTEX and fufill the other functions as well. CORRTEX could be used to com plement seismic methods by confirming the yields or the calibration shots. Copies of the OTA revort Seismic 1/2r:"ic,it:on _,; .\:,clear Testing Treaties. are a..'ailable 'rom :he 5ul'.)er:nte~ dent of Documents. U.S. Go,.'emment Printing Of+'zce. ~'/asizington. DC 20402-9325 1202) 7'83-3238. T;ze GPO stock number is 052-003-01108-5: the price is 57. 00. Copies of the report for congressional use are available by calling .;-8996. Signal From Semipalatinsk 20 30 .. o ::C r;me ,.seconas1
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OTA REPORT BRIEF June 1988 The Quality of Medical Care OT A examined whether valid information on the quality of medical care could be developed and made available to the public to guide their choices of physi cians and hospitals. Recent changes in how physicians and hospitals are paid have raised concerns that providers facing restricted budgets and low payment rates might skimp on services to the detriment of patients' health and that third-party payers will seek low-cost providers without sufficient attention to the quality of care. Advocates of better quality-_oh:are informa tion expect that individuals and organizations would use improved consumer information to select hospi tals and physicians, thereby exerting leverage on these providers to improve their performance. After examining various ways to measure the qual ity of care, this OT A report concluded that several of the possible indicators can provide useful information to guide individuals and organizations in selecting phy sicians and hospitals. Although none of the possible measures can conclusively evaluate quality across the full range of medical care, several could be used to flag areas for further exploration. In evaluating a specific physician or hospital, OT A advises consumers to com bine information from more than one indicator and '.o draw intormation from more than one year. An accompanying table lists the potential indicators of quality that OT A evaluated and summarizes the strengths and weaknesses of each indicator (see re verse). Although OT A attempted to select the most promising indicators, the ones evaluated may not in clude the best measures for consumer use. Of the indicators examined, formal disciplinary ac tions by State medical boards provide the most valid information about poor-quality physicians. In addi tion. the results of hospital accreditation, physicians' practicing in the area of their training, and patients' ratings of the interpersonal aspects of their care have 6ood validity. OTA places high priority on improving information on indicators that are already being disseminated and Information for Consumers used, namely hospital mortality rates, adverse events, sanctions of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) based on recommendations by peer re view organizations (PROs), and physician specializa tion. OT A also gives higher priority to efforts to iden tify and to improve the quality of physicians and hospitals whose performance falls below acceptable levels than to efforts to distinguish among good-quality providers. In the course of evaluating the indicators, OT A identified several deficiencies in the field of quality assessment. Current techniques do not adequately ad just for patient and environmental factors than may influence patients' health and satisfaction independ ently of the quality of care. There is also a dearth of necessary data and a lack of uniform methods to code. collect, and report data. Further. although some in formation, most notably hospital mortality rates. is becoming available to the public, other relevant qual ity information, such as the results of hospital accred itation, is regularly compiled but not publicly avail able. Finally, how individuals and organizations use quality-of-care information and how information can most effectively be communicated remain largelv un explored. OTA developed policy options :hat C.0:c gress could adopt to improve quality assessment tech niques, to ensure the quality of assessments. to improve the availability of required data, and to make quality-of-care information more available to the public Copies ot the OTA report. Tire Quality or .\lt'dicai C.m: Information for Consumers. are armiable tram tlze Siwenn tendent of Documents U. 5. Gorenm1ent Pnntzng Ot+:c.: Washington. DC 20.J02-cl325 r 202) 7"83-3238. Tize G?O stoc.~number is 052-003-01111--4. :lie unce :;; :5:-i.JO C~-ui.:s -, the report _ror congressional use .ire .1;:aiiatiL ,11:1 ..1i:rn, .; :3906. Summaries o,f reports are ,1-:.'ailahie at 110 "liar's<' ~on1 the Office of T!!Clznology Assessment. The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress. OTA's basic tunction is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OTA, U.S. Congress, Washington, DC 20510-8025. Phone: 202/224-9241. John H. Gibbons. Director.
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Summary of Key Findings on Quality-of-Care Indicators Evaluated by OT A Strengths Hospital mortality rates: .i. suostant1al ;:iercentage of hoso1tal deaths are ;:ireventable. -:-:,ere nas been some limited validation of the association be tween high mortality rates and poor performance. L1m1ted information is now publicly available. Adverse events, such as hospital-acquired infections: Weaknesses Techniques and c1in1ca1 aata :o ad1ust 'or ;:iat1en:s :sK :;re -.c: available. Using this indicator to measure quality may result 1n many 'a1se negatives and false positives. Many lay and medical people lack sufficient knowledge to ,nterpret the data. A substantial percentage of adverse events are preventable. Case finding of nosocomial infections is unreliable across hos- NosocomiaJ infections have been partially validated as indicapitals. tors of quality. No two-stage system, including the generic screens used by Infections of surgical wounds can be measured more reliably PROs, has been completely validated for evaluating quality than all infections. across hospitals. Two-stage systems of screening for adverse events and audit- Using adverse events as quality indicators results in many false ing medical records are already in widespread use in hospitals; positives. the cost of implementing the use of adverse events as quality If use of adverse events as an indicator depends on providers indicators would be low. reporting adverse events, there is a high potential for gaming. Formal disciplinary actions by State medical boards against physicians: The indicator gains credibility from the rigorous due process The precision of the grounds for disciplinary actions varies used. among State medical boards. Grounds for disciplinary actions extend beyond incompetence The indicator does not identify all poor-quality physicians: there to felony, fraud, and impairment from drug abuse; if one accepts are many false negatives. these grounds as relevant to quality, formal disciplinary actions Information on formal disciplinary actions is not well publicized are valid indicators of poor-quality physicians. in most States. Information on formal disciplinary actions is already available. PRO/HHS sanctions: The PRO/HHS sanctioning process is a rigorous one. Most grounds for sanctions relate to incompetence and in appropriate care. Malpractice compensation: Malpractice compensation indicates patient dissatisfaction. Multiple jury awards justify attention. The PRO/HHS sanctioning process is new. evolving, and sometimes unclear. The grounds for sanctions may relate to improper documentation by providers. which some may not deem to be related to the quality of care. Single incidents of malpractice give little 1ndicat1on of :ec:in1cal quality. Many factors unrelated to merits of a malpractice case affect its outcome. Evaluation of physicians' performance for a specific condition, such as hypertension: Evaluations that combine explicit criteria and implicit judgment The validity of experts' criteria and standards has not been to review the medical care process. perhaps with patient outevaluated. comes to target review, hold promise as an indicator of qual- The generalizability of results to other settings and conditions ity, but are not well evaluated. is low. E,aluations across a range of medical conditions are promis- Explicit review of phys1c1ans ;:ierformance raises :he :::ro:::1er"" ing, though not well evaluated. of false negatives. and implicit review raises the oroblem or :ne reliability of physicians' judgments. Volume of services in hospitals or performed by physicians: Lower hospital volumes have been associated with higher rates of poor patient outcomes for certain services, mostly surgical. Data on hospital volume are readily available from claims or hos pital discharge abstracts: extra cost of data collection would be low. External standards and guide/Ines for scope of hospital services: Standards and guidelines developed by external experts are a reasonable means for assessing minimum acceptable resources to manage certain conditions. Some information on the indicator is collected and publicly available. A relationship between volume and outcome has not been documented for services performed by physicians or for all services in hospitals. Studies have not linked lower volume with poor performance. Using volume of procedures as an indicator of quality would give providers an incentive to raise volume by relaxing standards of use. The use of the indicator to measure quality has not been ,ali dated through process or outcome measures. Information on the indicator 1s difficult to obtain. Physician specialization as measured by specialty board certification or by practicing in one's area of training: Practicing in one's area of training has good validity as an indi- The association between practicing 1n ones area of tra1n1ng and cater of the quality of technical aspects of care. providing better quality care is not generalizable across spec:al- Information on the training of board-certified physicians is readties or procedures. ily available. Data on the training of non-board-certified phys1c1ans are net Patients' assessments of their care: Patients' ratings are a valid indicator of interpersonal aspects of inpatient care and of physicians' ambulatory care. Patients' assessments of technical aspects are promising, espe cially for physicians' ambulatory care, but have not been val idated. SOURCE: Office of Tecnnology Assessment. 1988. readily available. Board certification is not a valid measure of quality. Potential bias in assessments may result from patients prefer ences or other characteristics. Special surveys are required to collect data.
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'-' _t,rES, ''\,. \t;:. OTA REPORT BRIEF rune 1988 SDI: Technology, Survivability, and Software The ultimate goal of the Strategic Defense Initiative (501) is to create defenses effective enough to "elimi nate the military threat" of nuclear ballistic missiles and perhaps lead to an arms control agreement with the Soviets to eliminate the missiles themselves. In mid-1987, the SDI Organization (SDIO) proposed taking the first steps toward developing and deploy ing a "phase one" ballistic missile defense (BMO) sys tem in the mid-1990s. Elements of a Phase One Strategic Defense System High-altitude satellites intended to detect and track ballistic missiles as they rise from their launchers A few thousand space-based interceptors (581) located on a few hundred satellite "garages" or "carrier vehicles" in low-earth orbit. in tended to collide with missile boosters and warhead-carrying stages (called "post-boost vehicles") An infrared sensor system, either based on sat ellites or launched from the ground to high al titides during an attack. intended to detect and track missile warheads and decoys Several hundred ground-based interceptors in tended to collide with missile warheads betore they reentered the atmosphere If phase one worked as planned, it might protect a substantial" fraction of certain kinds of targets, such as ICBM silos. SDIO officials say that by reducing So viet attack capabilities, this system would significantly enhance nuclear deterrence. Such a system might also ofrer general protection against small or accidental bal listic missile attacks. The second and third phases ot BMD development and deployment are less well defined. These additional phases, however, would be essential to retain the ca pabilities of phase one in the face of future Soviet coun termeasures and to extend BMD protection to urban and industrial targets. Possible Elements of Phases Two and Three Additional and improved space-based inter ceptors Ground-based interceptors designed to attack reentry vehicles inside the atmosphere "Interactive Discrimination" devices, perhaps neutral particle beam accelerators, to help dis tinguish between decoys and reentry vehicles disguised as decoys Directed-energy weapons, such as lasers to attack future missile boosters too fast to be reached by space-based interceptors Principal OT A Findings 1. Many years of BMD research have led to impres sive technical achievements. but important technical issues remain to be resolved before the feasibility of reaching SDI goals can be determined. The S010 has initiated programs to address most. if not all. of these issues. 2. The effectiveness of a first-phase BMD system in the mid-to-late 1990s would depend on several uncertain factors, including: affordably producing the system proposeci: deploying the system on the schedule ;:iroposed: the effectiveness of likely countermeasures by the Soviets; and the numbers of Soviet weapons that exist by then and the Soviet attack strategy. 3. The feasibility of modifying and adding to the phase one system to meet a changing Soviet threat in the year 2000 and beyond will remain uncertain for some time. Commitment in the early 1990s to full-scale development and deployment of a phase one system would occur before most of the experimental evidence on succeeding phases is complete. Thus, a major is sue will be whether Congress has enough confidence in the second and third phases of the system to com mit to development and deployment of the first phase. -t. The survivability of a space-based BMD system is hard to estimate, because it would depend on the /over! The Office of Technology Assessment 1OTAJ is an analytical arm of the LJ.S. Congress. OTA's basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OTA, LJ.S. Congress. Washington, DC 20510-8025. Phone: 202. 22-1-92-11. John H. Gibbons. Director.
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specific weapons attacking it, the countermeasures against those weapons, the tactics used by each side, and the inevitable uncertainties of battle. For exam;:-ie 'luclear-armed anti-satellite .ve.:ipons launched ~,om :he ,!:round couid seriouslv threaten a tirst-phase or second-phase BMD system. 5. OT A found little analysis of space-based threats to BMD system survivability. SDIO analyses have generally assumed that U.S. BMD technologies would remain superior to Soviet technologies. The SDIO and its contractors appear not to have studied seriously the possibility that the United States and the Soviet Union would both field comparable BMD systems. More over, the Soviets would not need to achieve BMD ca pabilities to begin to challenge U.S. control of, or even access to, space, since most BMD weapon technologies would have anti-satellite applications before they reached the levels of power and precision needed for BMD. 6. Because of the nature of software and past ex perience with large, complex software systems, there may always be irresolvable questions about how de pendable BMD system software would be. Moreover, no adequate models exist for the development, pro duction, testing, and maintenance of full-scale BMD software systems. The relatively slow rate of improvement in software engineering technology makes it appear to OT A unlikely that questions about BMD sys tem software dependability would be resolved in :he foreseeable future. SDIO officiais. f1owe:er ar~:.;e :'.',J.t soitware programs '.vii! be :nanagea6ie anc.:i :ha, ,,:;-~: lation testing to permit sufficient coniidence in :he svs tem will be possible. 7. There is broad agreement in the technical com munity that significant parts of the research being car ried out under the aegis of the SDI are in the national interest. Disagreement, however, centers on whether this research is best carried out within a program that is strongly oriented toward supporting an early 1990s BMD deployment decision and that includes system development as well as research elements. OT A prepared this report in response to a provision 1n the fiscal 1986 defense appropriations bill ( Public Law 99-190). Copies of the OTA report, "SDI: Technology, Surviva bility. and Software," are available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Washing ton. DC 20402-9325 (202) 783-3238. The GPO stock number is 052-003-01084-4: the price is S12. 00. Capzes of the report for congressional use are available by calling -l-8906. Summaries of reports are available at no charge ~ram :lie Office of Technology Assessment.
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OTA REPORT BRIEF The African Development Foundation (ADF) is a small U.S. development assistance agency faced with a big task: supporting grassroots development in Africa. Congress created ADF in 1980 to "enable the poor to participate in the process of devel opment." Congress hoped that this approach would be more suc cessful than other U.S.-funded development assistance programs because the lack of people's participation was often cited as a critical reason for their failure. ADF's purposes are to support local self-help activities for community development, to stimu late expanding participation of Africans in their development. and to encourage the growth of African development institu tions. The Foundation opened its doors in 1984 and its appropri ations grew to $7.0 million by 1988. OT A's assessment confirmed the validity of the assumptions on which ADF was created and found that most ADF-funded projects were doing reasonably well. While identifying a num-June 1988 ber of areas for improvement, OTA concluded the Foundation's reauthorization is justified. ADF would need additional fund ing, however, if it is to implement the recommended improve ments without reducing the funds available for new grants. Between 1984 and 1987, ADF awarded grants to 114 projects in 19 countries, distributing a total of S10.3 million. Individual grants ranged from $700 to $250,000, and most commitments are for 2 to 3 years. Projects average approximately $90,000. Two-thirds of the projects have agricultural activities as a ma jor component; some support other rural activities, such as pota ble water supply; and one-fifth provide aid to urban organiza tions. Funded groups use ADF money to repair wells, build small-scale irrigation systems, plant vegetable gardens and or chards, improve animal health, rent tractors, raise chickens, form cooperatives, and conduct many other activities. In addi tion to funding grassroots groups, ADF funds support organi zations, enabling them to provide services such as training, credit and technical assistance to grassroots groups. In 1987. :-\DF evaluated 10 of its projects. The first grants for research ,.-.:,.-:e awarded to Africans in 1986. Promoting participation is an explicit part of ADF's mandate. ADF also strives to achieve results that are sustainable J.nd replicable because of ADF's obligation to foster social and ;ceonomic development. Selection of technologies affects proiect per formance in each of these areas. OTA teams visited a t,Jta; .'r 12 ADF-funded projects in 6 countries in west, east. and south ern Africa. OT A's major findings about project performance re lated to these four critical issues-participation, results, sustaina bility, and replicability-are: OT A judged that one-half of the 12 African groups visited by OT A teams have a high degree of overall participation in the ADF-funded activity; one-third, however, rated low on participation. Generally, participants were representative of the community, agreed that the project addressed a need, and shared equitably in costs and benefits. On the other hand, par ticipants usually did not take part in evaluation and financial decisionmaking and women rarely participated in project man agement. A third of the projects rated low on participants acceptance of the proposed technologies, their share in proiect management, women's access to the project. and participatory provision of technical assistance. Since most projects were in an early stage of development. future results had to be estimated. Ten projects were judged likely to have a positive impact on the social and economic development of the poor in the locale, but the level of impact ranged from significant to negligible.
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INSIDE ... OT A REPORT BRIEF Grassroots Development: African Development Foundation CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT WASHINGTON. D.C. 20510-8025 OFFICIAL BUSINESS PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE. $300 POSTAGE AND FEES PAID OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT 379
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,-'~, OTA REPORT BRIEF June 1988 Advanced Materials by Design: New Structural Materials Technologies '.\1aterials account for as much as 30 to 50 percent of the costs of a wide range of manufactured products. '.\:ew advanced" structural materials that can reduce production costs and improve performance can give :he C nited States a competitive edge in many prod ucts. including aircraft. automobiles, industrial machinery, and sporting goods (figure 1). The value of components produced in the United States from these advanced materials has been projected to grow from about S2 billion in 1988 to nearly S20 billion by the year 2000. However, despite its strong position in advanced materials technologies :developed largely as a result of military programs), whether the United States will lead the world in commercializing these materials is uncertain. The technol ogies are still in their infancy. and cost-effective use or advanced materials and fabrication processes has :cot ::-een der:i.onstrated in large-scale commercial ap~lications. Potential C.S. commercial end users believe that major use of these materials will be not be profita ble for about 10 to 15 years. and have adopted a "wait and see attitt.:de. In contrast. end user companies in several countries. :1otabiy in Japan. have :nitiated more aggressive pro.::r:1~ls ~o cor.i.~.erciJ.iize ~heir cvoiv:ng ~.:iter~als ~ech-:.~.--::-~:es ..1.r.li ~.a,:e ~L.CC2t:Gt:i.i ::i or::-,~::-1~ ;c~t:: J...i,:a:1ceG '."'.1atenal ;:,roduc:s to ,he market years in advance or cor."'.parable C .5. products. The manutacturmg experi ence gained by this aggressive approach is likely to give these companies a significant competitive advantage in the growing world markets for advanced materials. A.dvanced materials can be classified as metals, cer amics, polymers. or hybrids icompositesJ derived from these : rigure 2 l. They offer superior ;Jroperties such as -;trength at !-iigh temper:it-..ires. high stiffness, and ::11;::t .veight compared :o traditional metals such as :;:eel c1nci aluminum. In some cases. :hey make ;:,ossi::-re e:cc:rel:: :1ew ;Jroduc:s J.nd ciesign approaches :hat .:(11...:il.1 :--:ct :'e ~eas1t:'le .vitb exisr:ng ~ater~ais. OT.-\ ~o-' I _..:~cs.;~. ::--.ree ;'r\:'~~::;i~~ .:J.~e~or:t=s .__,r ~~:-:..:...::~r.J1 :er:ais: ceramics incl1..:Jing ceramic :-:1atrix comros::es ;:-ui:::c:er :-::atr:x composices. J..nd ~.etai :-r:acrix cor:1posites. The Federal Government directly afrects the development ot advanced materials :hrough fonding ot c-asic rese:irch, technoiogy demonstration programs. and military and aerospace procurement of these ma terials and structures. The U.S. Government currently spends about S170 million per year for R&D CH, str..:c tural ceramics and composites. more :han an\ ,)t:-.er nation. The Department of Detense sponsors abot.:, :::C percent of this totai 'see table l .'. Congress and the Reagan Administration have disagreed on the appropriate Federal role in establishing goals for advanced materials R&D. The Congressional view expressed in the National :viaterials Act of 198-l: is that advanced materials policies can be viewed as a group having generic importance to :nany federal agency missions and commerc:al uses, but separ:icle from them. Hence, in that Congressional ::ew. :-:1ace rials R&D priorities are appropriately designed a, :he national level. The Administration :iew ~as :-ee:--. ::-.ac R&D priorities for advanced maceriais ca:--.,,ct ::-e -e:::-' .. . aratec rrom appt1cat1ons and.. r.ence. are :::e5, _,,c:-:;;,,s:;c..: by establishing priorities at the incii-:idual ?eier::.1 agency level. \\"hile a national policy approach '.c' J.<.1':a,.ceci :-:1.1-terials R&D could provide a foe.is :or :nC:i\J:..:.ai ..;.,:e:1cies and tor collaborative gover!"lment J.r.J ::ic::.:srr:: pro~ects. :t :s diffic,..iit :o J.ddress spec:::c (.:~t 1:--.J :-e;-::;t..:ch ~n ..1rproac!1. In par:~cuiar. ~t ~J.:: ~J.:~ :1.~ ;'rc"C:..:ce materials or ;:-recesses :hat are economicJ.il:: J.t:r:i.c:::e to C.S. industry. So far. the poiic:: deoace '.'.as s;.;rtereci from a poor definition ot its objectives. 1n many respects. the competetive cha;Jenges ~acing U.S. advanced materials industries are J. :-:1:c:-0cosm of the challenges facing the C .5. ma:1uiac::.:n:1g sector as a whole. Therefore. advanced :ciater:als ;-oii cies cJ.nnot !:-e viewed as a totailv -erar.:;:e :ss:.:e. ""'.""'.,e most efrec:ive .vay :o J.dciress :hese ?'-'iic:es :; J.S ,':--.e tacet ui 1 !"'.1gh-;evei high-?rior:t~: ;'Clic~.--"r ~::-e~.:::::--:e!"!in~ \:J.t:o~:; e!1t:re :nd:..:st~:.1! :'aie .:--.c::. .. ....:~:--:..: ...:iere!".se ~ec~.:'\L~lc"''2'\' l L,,ier1:-uri~ :1at10r.J.1 ~c1~c~: ;;e:a1s ~t~:--.11...::.1:--.cet..: :-:~...::e-=-~ais is ~ore dif!ic:..:it ~han tor ~ore ::-J.G:::l"':-':J.~ .::-::: cal :::1ateriais :-:1ostly :-:1inerals .vb:c:-. ~ene::-.:;;;,.-~evolve around conservation or stoc;._;:,ilin;:: ~'r :;orce elements. This difficulty is due in ;car: :o :~e ~:-eat diversity ot advanced materials and their :.:ses. ,rnci :n part to the fact that the technologies :e!',d to ::-e i,:\e!"'. -:-he Ofrice ot Technology Assessment OTA.1 :s J.n J.nalvticai J.r:n ,1r :he : .. :.S. Cong:-ess. OT.-\ s ::-J.s,c ::.:ncic'!l :s :o heip legislators anticipate and pian tor the positive and negative impac:s ot :ec:mol0gicai c:,anges -\ddress: OT.-\. C.S. Congress. Washington DC :::os10-so:::s. Phone: :::02 ::::..; .J:-1,:. form H. Gicccr,s 2:.c-::,'r
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Figure 1.-Relative Importance of Cost and Performance in Advanced Materials User Industries ::.--:: 8r13SiS on cost Construction .~.u tcmo t1'1e Commercial aerospace Military aerospace Biomedical ----Emphasis on performance ____ .,.. Barriers to the use of advanced materials decrease from upper left to lower right. SOURCE. :echno1ogy '-Aanagement Associates. 'Industrial Criteria !or Invest 'Tient Jec1s1ons ,n R&O anCI ?roaucnon -=ac11it1es. ::ontractor ~eoort 'or OTA, January 987 by the specific performance requirements determined by specific uses. OTA identifies four key Federal policy objectives that could accelerate the commercialization of advanced materials technologies in the United States: 1. Encourage potential end users to make long-term capital investments in advanced materials: ., Fac1iitate government. university industry collaboration in R&D for low-cost materials fabri cation; 3. Facilitate more effective commercial exploitation of military R&D investments where possible. -. Build a strong advanced materials technology in frastructure to permit rapid exploitation of re search results. Figure 2.-The Family of Structural Materials Metals Includes ceramics. polymers, and metals. Reinforcements added to these materials produce ceramic matrix composites (CM Cs), polymer matrix composites (P\.1Csl, ano metal matrix composites iMMCs). Materials in the shaded regions are cis cussed in the assessment. SOURCE. Office at -ecnno1ogy .l,ssessment 988 Cnnes of the OTA report AJ,.:anc2,1 .\I,.r2,ais :,;, 22-szgn: ,\Jew Structural .vfater.ais T2dznoiogies. are .. ;:mhwie .from the Su_verintendent of Oornments. U.5 Co;.:ernmen= Printing Office. Washington DC 20"402-.J325 202.' -:33_32313 Tt?e GPO stock Y?u.rnber :.s J5~-l_;o_-;,_,)20C~-] ~J:t.~ ~r-~ ... -t.' :2 Sl"4.00. Cornes o_f the reoort or congressional use .,rs .,::ui able by calling "4-89. Summar:2s ~'' 't'1Jc>rl5 .ire .,::11:.wie ~1.t r10 _-_l!i-?r?-2 ..:.,..'.Jm ~he 1:J~~:::2 .... t -:-:..''....<:.~:::-:'_ .... "'"'~-----._..:_:.:t:.'~3"'.:::'}::Table 1.-U.S. Government Agency Funding for Advanced Structural Materials in Fiscal Year 1987 (millions of dollars) Agency Department of Oefensea. Decartment of Energy ............ National Aeronautics and Scace Adm1n1stration National Science Foundation National Bureau ot Standards Bureau of 1i1ines iJecartment of Transoo~at1on --:ia1. Ceramics and ceramic matrix composites $21.5 36.0 7.0 3.7 3.0 2.0 Polymer matrix comcosites $33.8 5.0 3.0 0.5 0.2 3.12. 5 Metal matrix composites $29.7 5.6 1.0 326.3 Carbon/carbon composites $13.2 2. '. Total S 98 2 36.0
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~ --...... ... -,, -~---.. ,., .... ....,_ .... ,.,_ .. _...-~ .. -, ... ----.--.. ,,--:-----~-----~~~~-""9"'!~~~~--.,.,.,.. .... ,----:!i---~-~-OTA REPORT BRIEF ,:;_,. .. ,' .,,.._l' ... ~-..; '1.rLl'-'' l1 _,-+---, I ... The national goal of maintaining and invigorating a produc tive science and engineering work force demands efforts on three fronts. First, capable young people must be sought out and wel comed throughout the school years. Second, their individual ta lents must be nurtured by elementary and secondary schools and institutions of higher education. Third, they must perceive that there will be good, fulfilling jobs available when they graduate. OT A finds that college students majoring in science and engi neering are not only those who display early interest. high achieve ment, and drive: data indicate that one-quarter of them come from outside the academic (college-preparatory) curriculum track. Encouragement, preparation, and career opportunities can attract students into science and engineering even after they en ter college. The job market is too unpredictable to target specific personnel needs, so the goal of higher education, including that for science and engineering, should be to prepare students for an June l-?88 uncertain future by imparting a range of skills. The education of scientists and engineers must be both specialized enough to satisfy the ongoing demand for faculty and industry research ers, and general enough to allow students and recent graduates to respond to changing or unexpected national research pri orities. Supply Trends America is unusual in that a majority of high school gradu ates attend college. In large part this is made possible by government and private financial aid that is awarded without regard to field of study. College students shift majors partly in response to perceived changes in the job market. Most shifts of science and engineering majors, however, are within these fields, rather than into or out of science and engineering altogether. Science and engineering baccalaureates have maintained a remarkably constant share (30 percent) of total baccalaureates (20 percent if only natural science and engineering baccalaureates are considered) for the past 30 years. While many of these grad uates take science and engineering jobs, few attend graduat: school. The proportion of baccalaureates in science and enginePr:"' who go on to earn Ph.D.s, however, has never been con:'',,,. Graduate enrollments reflect the availability of fellowship and assistantship funding, and at the doctoral level, the outlook for research and development funding and employment. Elementary and Secondary Education Science and mathematics education are embec:dec in '.~e .--..:~-, ican system. Good teachers are critical. They are only as stror.~. however, as their preservice and inservice training, support, and working conditions. Curricula, textbooks, testing, and track ing are all part of our mass education system; that system resists change and serves the aspirations of some students better than others. Over the past 20 years, special programs have been used to encourage children's interest and proficiency in academics, espe cially in mathematics and science. These programs spark inter est in ways that most classrooms do not. Based in the commu nity or in the schools, with strong role models and individualized programs, they support students who often do not succeed in the regular classroom. Intervention programs such as these en rich the experiences and attitudes of minorities and ~er.ial-:c~ toward science and mathematics. Some programs draw on Llr:: versity experts and the latest in testing and computer technol ogies; many more work on shoestring budgets with egg cartons and volunteers. While there is no single model of success. inter vention techniques have been shown to be effective. If these tech niques could be more widely applied in schools, a larger and more diverse population of students might pursue science and engineering as careers.
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INSIDE ... OT A REPORT BRIEF Educating Scientists and Engineers: CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT WASHINGTON. D.C. 20510-8025 OFFICIAL BUSINESS PENAL TY FOR PRIVATE USE. $300 Grade School to Grad School POSTAGE AND FEES PAID OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT 379 ~ -U.S.MAIL _,
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OTA REPORT BRIEF \-!av 1988 Field~Testing Engineered Organisms: Genetic and Ecological Issues To date, genetically engineered organisms have been field-tested about two dozen times in at least 12 States and four foreign countries. Additional field tests will occur in coming months; increasing numbers are ex pected in the future. With recombinant DNA techniques, genetic mate rial can be either added to or deleted from organisms to make them serve a wide range of purposes: vaccines to protect against human and animal diseases; agri cultural crops with increased resistance to disease, in sect pests, or herbicides; crops with increased growth rates, improved nutritional qualities, taste, or en hanced tolerance to environmental stresses; and mi crobes that reduce crop losses to frost or improve envi ronmental quality by degrading toxic wastes (see table on reverse). While some of these applications may raise concern and questions of safety for public health or environ mental quality, adequate review of planned introduc tions is currently possible and most problems can be anticipated and prevented. The small-scale field tests proposed or probable within the next several years are not likely to result in an environmental problem that would be widespread or difficult to control. Indeed, realistic small-scale field tests may be the only way to evaluate potential risks from commercial-scale uses of genetically engineered organisms. Results from these field tests will help improve general capabilities for risk assessment and prediction. If small-scale field tests do not identify areas of significant concern, there would be no scientific reason not to proceed with larger-scale field tests or applications. Planned introductions of genetically engineered organisms into the environment are not, however, without potential risks. Virtually any organism delib erately introduced into a new environment will have a small but real chance of surviving and multiplying. In some cases, an undesirable consequence might fol low. Because even simple ecosystems are very com plex, the precise prediction of such events and of their consequences is difficult. With further experience, agencies regulating the re lease of engineered organisms (principally the Environ mental Protection Agency and U.S. Department of Agriculture) should be able to move from the present case-by-case examination of each proposed field test. to a more streamlined system in which specific pro posals are assigned to the appropriate level of review (e.g., low, medium, and high). OT A identified options for congressional action in three major areas of public policy related to this prom ising new application of biotechnology: criteria for review of planned introductions for potential risk. administrative mechanisms for applying such re view criteria, and the research base supporting pbnned i::trc ductions. This special report is the third in a series of reports on New Developments in Biotechnology. Copies of the OT A special report, ''Field-Testing Engineered Organisms: Genetic and Ecological Issues," are available from the U. 5. Government Printing Office, Washington DC 20402-9325. tel: 1202) 783-3238. The GPO stock number is 052-003-01104-2: the price is 57. 50. Copies of the report for congressional use are available by calling -4-8996. The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress. OTA's basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OTA, U.S. Congress, Washington, DC 20510-8025. Phone: 202/224-9241. John H. Gibbons, Director.
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Some Representative Pending and Potential Environmental Applications of Genetically Engineered Organisms MICRO-ORGANISMS Bacteria as pesticides. "Ice-minus" bacteria to reduce frost damage to agricultural crops. Bacteria carrying Bacillus thuringiensis toxin to reduce loss of com crops to black cutworm. Plant symblonts. Nitrogen-fixing bacteria to increase ni-o trogen available to plants, and decrease need for ferti I lzers. Mycorrhizal fungi to increase plant growth rates by im proving efficiency of root uptake of nutrients. Toxic waste disposal. Bacteria engineered to enhance their existing abilities to degrade compounds found in sludge in waste treatment plants. Bacteria engineered to enhance their abilities to degrade compounds in landfills, dumps, runoff de posits, and contaminated soils. Heavy metal recovery. Engineered enhancements possible to several species of bacteria now used to recover metals from low-grade ores (e.g., copper and cobalt). Pollution control. Possible increased utility of bacteria in purifying water supplies of phosphorus, ammonia, and other compounds. Vln,saa as pesticides. Insect viruses with narrowed host specificity or increased virulence against specific agricultural insect pests, including cabbage looper, pine beauty moth, cutworms, and other pests. Myxoma virus modified so as to restore its virulence against rabbits (which became resistant during early biocontrol ettorts in Australia). Viruses as vaccines. Vaccines against human diseases including: -hepatitis A and B -polio -herpes simplex (oral and genital) -malaria -acquired immunodeficiency syndrome -rabies -respiratory syncitiai virus Vaccines against animal diseases including: -swine pseudorabies -swine rotavirus -vesicular stomatitis (cattle) -foot and mouth disease (cattle) -bovine rotavirus -rabies (cattle, other mammals) -sheep foot rot -infectious bronchitis virus (chickens) -avian erythrobiastosis -sindbis virus (sheep, cattle, chickens) Multivalent vaccines. Vaccines possible for antigenically complex diseases such as: -malaria -sleeping sickness -schistosomiasis SOURCE; Office of Tecnnology Assessment. 1988. PLANTS Herbicide resistance or tolerance to: Glyphosate Atrazine Suifonyturea (chiorosuifuron and sulfometuron) lmidazolinone Bromoxynii Phosphinotricin Dlsaasa resistance to: Crown gall disease (tobacco) Tobacco mosaic virus (and related viruses) Potato leaf roll virus Pest resistance BT-toxin-protected crops, including tobacco (principally as research tool) and tomato. Seeds with enhanced anti-feedant content to reduce losses to insects while in storage. Enhanced tolerance to environmental factors, including: Salt Drought Temperature Heavy metals Nitrogen-fixation enhancements Noniegumes enhanced to fix nitrogen, independent of association with symbiotic bacteria. Engineered marine algae Algae enhanced to increase production of such compounds as B-carotene and agar, or to enhance ability to sequester heavy metals (e.g., gold and co balt) from seawater. Forestry Trees engineered to be resistant to disease or herbicides, to grow faster, or to be more tolerant to environmental stresses. ANIMALS Livestock and poultry Livestock species engineered to enhance weight ga,n or growth rates, reproductive performance, disease resistance, or coat characteristics. Livestock animals engineered to function as producers for pharmaceutical drugs, especially of mammalian compounds that require post-synthesis modifications in the cell. Flsh Tripioid salmon produced by heat shock for use as game fish in lakes and streams. Fish with enhanced growth rates, cold tolerance, or disease resistance for use in aquaculture. Triploid grass carp for use as aquatic weed control agents.
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OTA REPORT BRIEF May 1988 Criminal Justice, New Technologies, and the Constitution-New technologies can improve the criminal justice process and make law enforcement more efficient and effective. Some may also infringe on the rights of peo ple accused of or convicted of crime-specific rights guaranteed by the Fourth, Fifth, Sixth, Eighth, and Fourteenth Amendments to the U.S. Constitutionand the rights of all Americans. Electronic technologies and technologies based on the biological and social sciences are rapidly entering police work-enhancing capabilities, but also increas ing opportunities for deliberate or inadvertent misuse. Electronic surveillance technologies challenge the ef fectiveness of Fourth Amendment protection against unreasonable searches and seizures because informa tion is no longer necessarily embedded in "persons, houses, papers, and effects" as in 1789, and because new technology modifies what the Supreme Court has called "the reasonable expectation of privacy." Biologi cal technologies-such as identification by means of bodily conformations, fluids and tissues, or mental processes-raise similar questions. Computer databases and computer matching have enormously ex panded the capability of government to gather and use information about individuals. The use of conventional weapons by law officials may be challenged as an unnecessary use of deadly force if less-than-lethal weapons, not yet satisfactory for most law enforcement purposes, become highly reliable. What is judicially permissible can change when technology changes. Criminal justice officials are increasingly using so cial science research. predictive models. simulation, expert systems, and other computer-assisted techniques to make decisions about arrests, pretrial release, sen tencing, probation, and parole. More consistent deci sionmaking can support the constitutional values of due process and equal protection of the laws. But sci entific techniques derived from the behavior of groups and populations, may, when applied to individuals, be unconstitutionally discriminatory unless used with great discretion. Pressures to alleviate prison overcrowding encourage the search for alternatives to prison. Today these in clude privately-run prisons, home arrest monitored by electronic bracelets, and treatment of some offenders with drug and hormone therapy or behavior modifi cation. Some of these may be challenged as cruel and unusual punishments or as violating rights to privacy or due process. But others are clearly preferable to prison, especially since AIDS has been added to the risks already found in prisons. To the extent that these alternatives are dependent on having a job. fixed abode, or steady income, as some now are. they may be challengable on the grounds of equal protection of law. As records-keeping and -sharing become even more essential to the administration of justice, issues related to data quality and confidentiality become more important. Neither law nor constitutional precedents in this area have yet accommodated to the problems of the information age. Technological innovations promise significant ben efits in reduction of crime and more equitable admin istration of justice. But some may widen the net of so cial control and chill the exercise of constitutional rights. Justice Brandeis once said, "Experience should teach us to be most on our guard to protect liberty when the Government's purposes are beneficent.'' The benefits of these technologies should not be lost through fear of potential abuses; those abuses can be avoided through the diligent attention of citizens, lawmakers. courts, and criminal justice administrators. Copies of the OTA report. "Criminal Justice. New Tech nologies. and the Constitution." are available from the Superintendent of Documents. U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington. DC 20402-9325 (202) 783-3238. The GPO stock number is 052-003-01105-1: the price is 52. ;"5. Copies of the report for congressional use are available by calling 4-8996. Summaries of reJ;Jorts are available at no charge _from the Office of Technology Assessment. The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress. OTA's basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OTA, U.S. Congress, Washington, DC 20510-8025. Phone: 202/224-9241. John H. Gibbons. Director.
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June 19S8 Special Report: Are We Cleaning Up?-10 Superfund Case Studies Are we cleaning up the mess or messing up the cleanup? In the eighth year of Superfund, this central question is still being asked. These 10 case studies illustrate how the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is implementing the Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA) of 1986. OTA has examined a great many more sites and believes these case studies are representative. This report examines two fundamental questions about the technology to clean up toxic waste sites. First. is the Superfund program consistently selecting permanently effective treatment technologies which, according to SARA, are preferable because they re duce "toxicity, mobility, or volume" of hazardous wastes? OT A finds that it is not. Second, are land disposal and containment, both im permanent technologies, still being frequently used? The answer we find is yes. Future cleanups are likely for wastes left in the ground or placed in landfills. The Superfund program promised a lot. People's ex pectations have been high, perhaps too high for such a new, complicated. large-scale effort. Frustration ,,rten :nakes it difricult to see real Supertund accom plishments. Since its inception at the end of 1980, Superfund has received over S5 billion to clean up the :'-J'ation' s worst toxic waste sites. But OTA' s research, analysis, and case studies support the view shared by most observers-including people in affected commu nities and people in industry paying for cleanupsthat Superfund remains largely ineffective and ineffi cient. Technical evidence confirms that, all too fre quently, Superfund is not working environmentally :he way the law directs it to, This finding challenges all those concerned about human health and the envi ronment to discover what is wrong and fix it. Whether Supertund will work cost-effectively over the long term depends on how cleanup technologies are evalu ated, :n.::itched to cleanup goals selected and imple mented, and how permanent the cleanups will be. Too much flexibility and lack of central manage ment control are working against an effective, efficient Superfund program. In principle, flexibility can lead to benefits. But the case studies show the Superfund program as a loose assembly of disparate working parts: a system with responsibilities divided and oper ations dispersed among EPA regions and contractors -all with a great amount of autonomy, There are no mechanisms to assure consistently high-quality studies, decisions, and field work or active information trans fer. The need for cleanups, the newness of the tech nological challenge, and the growth of Superfund mask the inexperience and mobility of the work force. Program managers have not offset inexperience in tech nical areas and management with tight management controls and intensive educational programs for government and contractor workers. Over-simplified "bean counting" of results instead of evaluations of what those results mean technically and what they ac complish environmentally provides too little incentive for quality work. The current decentralized system also does not assure higher levels of program efficiency over time, even though some workers and offices may become much more effective and efficient. A widespread belief among Superfund workers is that "every site is unique." There is a kernel of truth to this belief. Yet uniqueness has been carried :o an extreme and has blocked nderstandim, ,.,i c,,r:-c:T.1e11t ,"":11,ln~ Office, Washington. DC :::o.;02.u325, :::02.< -:"83-3238. 7"'!12 GPO stock number is 052-003-01122-1. the price is :53. -s. Copies o.f the report for congressional use are cll'Llliuble by calling -l-8996. The Office of Technology Assessment 1OTA) is an analytical arm of the CS Congress. OTA s basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OT A, CS Congress, Washington, DC 20510-8025. Phone: ::02, 22"1-92-H. lohn H. Gibbons, Director.
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10 Case Study Sites Wi~h Capsule Findings Case Study 1 Chemical Control Corp., Elizabeth. :--iew Terse: :::'.--\ :,e:;10n :: :\PL rank: :23 out of 770 Estimateci cost: 57.-l million Unproven solidification (chemical fixation) technology was selected to treat in situ highly contaminated subsurface soil. which previous removal actions had left below the water ta ble and covered up with gravel. No treatability study was used. The cost of incineration was overestimated. The cleanup will leave untreated contamination onsite. Case Study 2 Compass Industries, Tulsa County, Oklahoma EPA Region 6; NPL rank: 4831770 Estimated cost: $12 million Capping (containment) of waste was chosen over incinera tion. Capping was called a cost-effective, permanent cleanup even though it does not provide permanent protection com parable to incineration. No commitment was made to treat contaminated groundwater. Case Study 3 Conservation Chemical Co., Kansas City, Missouri EPA Region 7: NPL rank pending Estimated cost: $21 million Capping of the site and a hydraulic containment system to pump and treat some contaminated groundwater were cho sen over excavating and treating contaminated soil and bu ried wastes, which was recommended in an EPA study and bv the State. Water treatment cannot remove all the diverse c~ntaminants at the site. The ROD said that no estimate could be made for the duration of the cleanup. Case Study 4 Crystal City Airport, Crystal City, Texas EPA Re~ion o: \iPL =639 770 Est1m.i.ted cost: 51.o million Excavation of contaminated soils and wastes (which were buried in a previous removal action) and their disposal in an unlined landfill with a cap over it were selected over inciner ation. No treatability study supported the conclusion that the selected remedy is permanent on the basis of the adsorption of diverse contaminants to site soil. Major failure modes for the landfill were not examined. Case Study 5 Industrial Excess Landfill, Uniontown, Ohio EPA Region 5: \iPL ..-164, 770 Estimated cost: S2 million Prnvidin~ alternate water to houses that have or are likelv to have contaminated wells was a satistactory mterim reme dial action. However, actions to address the source of con tamination and to stop and treat contaminated groundwater are long overdue. Case Study 6 Pristine, Inc., Reaciin~. Oh10 EP.-\ Region S: :\PL =531 770 Estimated cost: 522 :mllion In situ vitrification was developed originally for radioactive soils, but its use for chemically contaminated sites is still un proven. In situ vitrification was selected-without treatability test results-chiefly because its estimated cost was about half that of onsite incineration. But the estimated cost for in cineration is probably high by a factor of 2. Incineration offers more certainty and probably would cost no more than the chosen remedy. Groundwater will be pumped and treated by air stripping and carbon adsorption. Case Study 7 Renora, Inc., Edison Township, New Jersey EPA Region 2; NPL +3781770 Estimated cost: Sl.4 million The selected remedy makes use of offsite landfilling for soils contaminated with PCBs. Also, biological treatment was selected for soils contaminated with diverse organic compounds and toxic metals and for contaminated groundwater. but no treatability study supported its selection. Case Study 8 Sand Springs Petrochemical Complex Tulsa County, Oklahoma EPA Region 6; NPL ,+761/770 Estimated cost: $45 million EPA originally said that solidification technology was in effective for the high organic content wastes and that 0ns1te incineration was effective. EPA then reversed itself and selecteci solidification for most of the cleanup, which the responsible party had claimed effective based on its treatability study. Incineration is to be used if solidification technology is not successfullv demonstrated o; fails after solidified material :s landfilled ~n the floodplain site, but criteria for failure are c1n specified. Case Study 9 Schmalz Dump Site, Harrison. 1\'isconsm EPA Region S: NPL ..-190,770 Estimated cost: 5800,000 A simple compacted earth cover over the soil contaminateci with lead and chromium was selected. Solidification, stabili zation treatment was rejected. although this was a textbook example of appropriate use of the technology. Voluntary well abandonment and monitoring was chosen over pumping and treating contaminated groundwater. Case Study 10 Tacoma Tar Pits, Tacoma. Washington EPA Region 10: >JPL ..-3~7 770 Estimated cost: S3.~ million No treatability study results supported the selection L't che:n ical stabilization. Si,;nihcant amounts ot untreated c,,ntar:1: nants as well as the treated m.i.tenals will he !ert 0ns1te. ~:,e effectiveness ot the treatment is uncertain. Incineration .v;:is said to offer no better protection and was rejected because of its higher cost.
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OTA REPORT BRIEF Commercializing High-Temperature Superconductivity The race to commercialize high-temperature superconductivity 1HTS) is on. Recent discoveries of superconductivity ( total loss of resistance to electricity) at record high temperatures open up the possibility of dramatic new applications ranging from ultrafast computers to magnetically levitated trains. Although the United States is strong in the science of HTS. Japanese firms are pursuing commercial applications more aggressively. The U.S. Government. for its part, is promoting HTS in its tradi tional way: support for science, coupled with R&D funded by the Defense Department and other mission :i,:enc:es. OT:\ s analysis indicates that this approach .v1ll likeiv be insufficient to meet toreign competition. Industry Strategy: By and large, Japanese compa nies have been more active in pursuing the commercial potential of HTS. They have more people at work, many ot them applications-oriented engineers and business planners charged with thinking about ways to -~et HTS into the marketplace. Japanese managers c1re contident that mvestments now will pay off-some ::;;-.e Jnc ,,Jme wav. vVith several notable exceptions, U.S. firms have been reluctant to commit people and dollars to HTS at comparable levels, given its uncertain prospects. American managers-under pressure to show shortrun profits-have been inclined to wait and see what the laboratory yields. As the scientific race becomes a commercial race, Japanese firms could quickly take the lead. Indeed they may already be doing so. Government Response: Firms in both countries look :o =!Overnment R&D for a technology base that can :-.eip support commercialization. The C.S. Gover:1-me!"\t .vdl put c1bout 505 million into HTS R&D durn:c: :,sc.:;1 ~-JS8. substant1ailv more :han :he lapanese Cover:-iment. T:1e Departments ot Detense I DoO\ c1nLi Ener:sy DOE. will spend about three-quarters oi th.:it. the :\at1onai Science Foundation about 15 percent. This approach, typical of postwar Federal technolo~y policy. has put the Cnited States in a strong posi-tion in the science of HTS. But it may weil leave :his country behind Japan in commercialization. :\either DoD nor DOE can be expected to provide broad support for industrial R&D-thafs not their job. And little R&D support is going to industry, still less to firms that expect to compete in the civilian marketplace. HTS technologies stemming from DoD R&D may eventually find their way into the commercial market. but spinoffs are less likely today than in earlier years. The Broader Problem: The pattern already ev1de!".t in HTS resembles that in other troubled American industries. The United States dominates in science. and American companies often make the maior technologi cal breakthroughs. But as industrv moves along :he learning curve, the competition quickly comes ..::own to engineering and manufacturing, where Japanese firms excel and U.S. firms continue to lag. The Federal Government's traditional. rnissionbased approach to supporting technology development worked well for several decades. But the world :-ias changed .\!ilitary technologies have grown steziJilv more specialized. :he dete!",se ~ec:or :nore s,0!a[e,..: '.~,,~ the rest ot the economv. It L'oD R~D tunding .vas e':e, a cornucopia for C.S. industry. it is :10 longer Measures designed to stimulate commercial innovation indirectly-through tax policy, or relaxed antitrust enforcement-have not proved to be an adequate response to new international competition. Although such policies have been in place since the earlv l 080s, U.S. industry invests proportionately less in R&D than West German and lapanese firms. Indeed. the gap has widened. Alternative Policies: OT.-\'s report :inalvzes :o ~c~licy options and three ~ederal strategies :;ee ,he ozici-; or :his ?age'. C.Jlt!S ,_H :ht? OT.-\ ... 2,!}L..,"rt c...,~Jnrner:..~:~1h::~;x :-::.s;i-~(_'lf!-:..JE:?rature 5u.t:..1f:!rci.:n1t.iiu.~:::ity .ire .r .. :aziabit: '"ron1 ~he ~U!.'t_'"':.~> tent.L-:?nt ot Ooc!,met1ts -.r 5. Co:run12nr ~~,,.:nr:n'-< ~-.... :;._~, Wusizmgron. DC .::o-.w.::--!3.25 202) -33_3_::33 -;:1e c7'o 5,L,L;,. number is 052-003-01112-3 ,lie !.Jnce :s :53.tJO. C.Juies L,r ,lie report for congressional use ,ire ,i~azlabie 0y c,ii!i11's -i-:Nuc The Ofticeot Tec:rnology Assessment 1OT.-\1 is an analytical arm ot the C.S. Congress. OT.\ s basic :unct10n :s to help le~1slators ant1C1pate and plan :or the positive and negative impacts ot technological changes -\ddress: OT.-\. C.S. Congress, Washington. DC 20510-8025. Phone: 202. 22-1-.:i2.n. John H. Gibbons. Director
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POLICY OPTIONS OTA. s report c1nalyzes 20 policy actions for deaiing with the problems oi HTS ;ind '.ec:-moiog:: policy :nore ge!lerally. Three examples roll ow: Issue Stop-and-go tunding has ~een a common problem for U.S. science and technology policy-and a sen ous one-in part because of yearby-year budgeting for Federal R&D. A period without newswor thy research results could lead to a dry spell in HTS R&:D budgets. \-lost of the incentives ,n American universities reward those who pur sue conventional research careers; few encourage facuity members to cross disaplinary boundaries. Smaller U.S. companies may not have the resources to kff? up with fast-breaking developments in Japan. While the Japanese have offered foreign firms opportunities to partlopate :n govemment-spon sored cooperative pro1ects, the re sponse to date has been tepid. A j01nt venture or an organization such as a protess1onal society or ~rade association :night be abie to spread the costs and heip American maustry ~am access to r apanese HTS R.&D. Options ior Congress OPTION 3. Direct the Administra tion to expenment with a 2-year funding cycle for HTS-possibly beginning with a pilot program at NSF. (Section 201 of Public Law 100-119 encourages congressional committees to experiment with multi-year authorizations and 2-year appropriations.) OPTION 10. Direct NSF. along with other agencies that fund post doctoral fellowships, to establish programs specifically for scientists and engineers who choose to move to a related field for a year or more of research. OmON 18. Provide a seed grant to a profesaional society or trade association for an office in Japan to morutor developments in HTS. with funds sufficient to operate the office for perhaps 5 years. A non profit organization such as the American Institute of Physics. the American Chemical Society, or the Federation 6f \1aterials Sooeties should be an acceptable vehicle in Japanese eyes. Advantages U ncertamtv over iunding for HTS during 1987 and early 1988, and particularly over the prospects for new money, made it hard for research groups in government, universities, and industry to plan. and delayed some projects. Such problems cannot be totally avoided in a fast-moving field like HTS. But a Z-year budget cycle would help keep R&:D on a steady course. According to the National Research Council. such fellowships "would facilitate communication among disciplines and 'seed' the faculty with individuals who are experi enced in the cross-disciplinary ap proach." One way or another, the United States should take the Japanese up on their offers to cooperate in HTS research. In addition to serving as liaison to forums like the New Su perconductivity Materials Research Association. a professional society or trade organization could help screen the latest scientific and tech nical information in Japanese. iden tifvm,; HTS research reports ior translation and distribution. This tunction could complement the cur rent etfort, quite small, by the Commerce Department under the ;apanese Technical Literature Act. STRATE GIES FOR COMMERCIALIZING HTS Disadvantages in the aOsence oi :mprovemen.ts m mechanisms for estaolishing R&D priorities. a 2-year budget cycle would do little to overcome the fundamental budgeting problems posed by competition for limited funds. To some extent, a 2-year cy cle might reduce the flexibility of the system. wtth potentially serious consequences ,n periods 0f rapid technological advance. Without compiementarv changes in the university enVlronment. such moves might hurt the career pros pects ot those accepting fellow ships. Japan might gain more than the United States from cooperation m HTS. \1uch of the U.S. work will take place m uruvers1ties. where rt wt!l be relatively open: much oi Japan s work will take place in :n dustriai laboratones. OTA's report also analyzes three strategies through which the Federal Governme!lt :night taster commercialization oi HTS: Flexible Response: This is the de facto U.S. strategy toward HTS. characterized by support for science and defense technology development. It builds on the notable strengths of the U.S. system, including high-quality university research, and unmatched resources for promoting advanced technologies of military importance. Its major weakness is the dearth of funds going to firms that expect to compete in the civilian market for HTS. Aggressive Response: This strategy would differ in three major ways from current policies: 1) NSF would have more money for HTS-in essence, an insurance policy against missed opportunities in basic science; 2) the Federal Government would share in the costs of industrial R&D consortia. so as to promote long-term, high-risk ventures; and 3) a working group of experts from industry, universi ties, and government would help shape industry consensus on the R&D agenda and allocate funds to those proposed consortia willing to make the longest time commitments and self-finance the highest fraction of R&D costs. A Federal Technology Agency: The report analyzes three variants: 1: a caoinet-levei science Jnci :ech nology agency; 2) institutional changes that would suostantially raise priorities for engineering research: and 3) direct support for civilian, commercial technologies. Although none of the alternatives under this strategy offer near-term support for HTS, the second two could hold promise for future technologies.
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Special Report June 1988 Paying the Bill: Manufaduring and America's Trade Deficit Many U.S. industries have fallen behind foreign competitors in manufacturing technology. The weak performance of American manufacturers is one of the most important underlying forces behind the large trade deficits of the 1980s. The United States has to improve its manufac turing performance if it is to prevent further erosion in living standards. A Manufacturing and Service Economy. The decline of U.S. manufacturing is worrisome. America is not a post-in dustrial economy in which demand for goods is giving way to demands for services. American consumers, businesses and government now devote over 30 percent of their spending to manufactured items ( other than food and fuel), compared to 23 percent 30 years ago. Perhaps more important, manufacturing and services are interdependent. The prosperity of many service industries depends on the health of manufacturing, and vice versa. Also, manufacturing is an important employer. Nearly 28 million Americans-about one-quarter of the work force make their living from manufacturing, either directly or in providing services or materials to manufacturing. The Trade Deficit: In What and To Whom? The U.S. trade deficit is mostly in manufactured goods. Of the $161 billion current account deficit in 1987, 85 percent was in manufacturing trade. Japan accounted for 36 percent of the U.S. merchandise trade deficit in 1987 -about $57 billion. The United States also runs large trade deficits with Taiwan, West Germany and Canada. U.S. Trade Deficits by Country, 1987 YextCO 1aly Hong ,
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American manufacturers have responded to the chal lenge in a variety of ways, but the competition is moving -1nead rapidly. So far. ,.\.merican manufacturers have not :n:iJc :.rp enough of the Jifference in productivity md qu:1lity to cut the trade deficit substantially 'Nithout further Jcvaluation of the dollar. Climbing Out From the Trade Deficit. In the first part of 1988, a weaker dollar has helped to increase exports of U.S. manufactures. But counting on the lower dollar alone to sell American manufactured goods is a shaky strategy, and one that would mean painful sacrifices for consumers and businesses. Changes in fiscal and trade policies will be needed. Improved manufacturing performance-the ability to make high-quality goods at reasonable costs, 'Nithout sacrificing our standards of living to get costs down will be crucial for the United States to erase the trade deficit. OTA has prepared this special report as part oj a com prehensive assessment of Technology, Innovation and C.5. Trade. 111e Jidl assessment .. .:iii anafr:e :he cc,mi ,i .-J.mencan manujaauring companies in ,ien::uprn-,z a:,i A:-piying new product and process :echnologies. ;q,Ji pc.;nzc:,,J.r emphasis on how we have lost or could bolster tech1101og,.ca, advantages. In addition, the full assessment ;vii/ e.xamine how the macroeconomic, trade and technology poiicies of both the United States and foreign governments affect C.5. manufacturers' access to foreign markets and their ability to compete in the U.S. market. Copies of the OT A special report "Paying the Bill: Manufacturing and America's Trade Deficit" are :i.vailabk from the U.S. Government Printing Office. The GPO stock number is 052-003-01124-7; the price is $4.00. Copies of the report for congressional use are available by calling -+-8996.
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Selected News Clips on OT A Publications and Activities The following is a representative sample (about 2.5%) of the clippings received during the last quarter. These clippings refer to 22 different OTA publications. Members of Congress participated in the public release of 12 of the 17 studies issued this quarter. OTA ASSESSMENT REPORTS Paying the Bill: Manufacturing and America's Trade Deficit Commercializing High-Temperature Superconductivity Educating Scientists and Engineers: Grade School to Grad School Are We Cleaning Up? 10 Superfund Case Studies Advanced Materials by Design SDI: Technology, Survivability, & Software The Quality of Medical Care: Information for Consumers Seismic Verification of Nuclear Testing Treaties Criminal Justice, New Technologies, and the Constitution Infertility: Medical and Social Choices Technology and the American Economic Transition Book Preservation Technologies New Developments in Biotechnology: Field Testing Engineered Organisms: Genetic and Ecological Issues Mapping Our Genes: Genome Projects --How Big, How Fast? The Defense Technology Base: Introduction and Overview Healthy Children: Investing in the Future Plant Closing: Advance Notice and Rapid Responses OTA TECHNICAL MEMORANDA, BACKGROUND PAPERS, AND OTHER DOCUMENTS How Effective is AIDS Education? AIDS and Health Insurance -An OTA Survey Electronic Delivery of Public Assistance Benefits Passive Smoking in the Workplace: Selected Issues Scientific Validity of Polygraph Testing: A Research Review and Evaluation Miscellaneous
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Foli~ Debt Rises 36.8 Pct., Keeping U.S. in the Top Spot Administration Seeks to Put Best Face on Slide By Stuart Auerbach Wuhin&ton l'1lll Slalf Wnllff America's total foreign debt climbed to $368.2 billion last year, a 36.8 percent increase over the 1986 total. as the United States solidified its position as the world's largest debtor nation, the government re ported yesterday. terday that the United States should.not be considered in a class with such large Third World debtors as Brazil. Mexico and Argen tina. "Foreigners are voluntarily participating in our economy because they find it attractive. I think this is a much fairer description than 'America is a debtor nation.'" said Ortner, the Commerce Department's chief economist. Administration officials, apparently sensi tive in this election year to the political implications of the report, sought yesterday to put the best face on the nation's slide from creditor to debtor status in 1982. "We are not in the debtor position of Mexi co, Brazil, Argentina and a few other countries are in ... The United States govern ment didn't borrow money the way Mexico and Brazil did to finance imports." In the first press briefing the government has held on the U.S. debt status, Commerce Undersecretary Robert Ortner argued yes-Those nations now are having trouble rais ing the dollars they need to make interest pay See DEBT. G2, CoL 3 THE WASHINGTON l'OST Foreign Debt Of U.S. Rises 36.8 Percent DEBT, From Gl ments on their foreign debt-which must be repaid in dollars because foreign lenders would not accept repay ment in the debtor nations' shaky currencies. The United States-unlike the Third World debton--can print dollars to repay debts. "We are nowhere near getting into trouble [liltel Mexico and Brazil. Ortner continued. But he acknowledged that the U.S. debt is nothing to cheer about. "I'm not talking about good news," Ortner said. "l am trying to argue that it is not terrible news.. Congress' Office of Technology Assessment (OT A) and private econ omists took a far lesa aangwne view of the U.S. debtor status. noting that the dollars required to meet obliga tions to foreign aders will reduce the funds available in this cowitry for government services. buainesa in~tment and COIIIUD1p-.. tion, and could lead to decreases in American living standards. "We are consuming ourselves into the international poorhouse, chalking up a debt our children will take years to repay," said Sen. John Heinz (R-, Pa.), who released the OTA report. : .. As the United States sinks deep-I er into debt, the OT A concluded, "foreign investors and creditors will' be less inclined to commit ever-increasing amounts of capital to a $4 trillion economy on a spending spree." In that event, U.S. interest rates would have to rise to attract sufficient foreign investment, economists predict. Lawrence Chimerine, president of the WEFA Group, an economic consulting firm. said in an interview that the large increase in the U.S. over seas debt is hurting the economy. -We are losing control over our own economy and our capital markets. This money does not come free. 1ne debt servicing needs will suck income out of the country. The figures released yesterday showed that theUnited States' in ternational debt increased by $99 billion last year from the 1986 total of $26SJ.2 billion. U.S. aaaets over. seas grew by $96.3 billion while for eign investment in the United States inaeaaed by $195.4 biJli0n. ------------------------
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r A cube ef magnetic material hangs in midair, showing how superconductors repel magnetic field. Sti1dy Says U.S. J\llay Be Behind Japan In Commercializing S11perconductors By John Burgess ~c f vf W:1shington P08t Staff Writer 7 / (J The United States may already have fallen behind Japan in the race to commercialize potentially revolutionary materials known as superconductors, a federal government study released yesterday concluded. U.S. companies are spending $260 million annually in the field, compared with Japan's $160 million, according to the study by the Office of Technology Assessment (OT A). But the United States may fall victim to Ja pan's skills in finding money-making applica tions for new technology and to its willing ness to work hard on new products even if no profits are in sight. "The winners in this race to commercial-ize are going to be those who commit them selves to a sustained effort" of 10 years or more, OT A Director John Gibbons told a hearing held yesterday by the Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs. Superconductors, now la~ely limited to the realm of the laboratory, channel electric ity with virtually no resistance and loss of en-, ergy. If they became generally available, the potentials would be enormous for virtually anything that uses electricity: Computers could be built to run faster, trains that run by magnetic levitation above a track could become commonplace and electric motors could run with more horsepower. Research breakthroughs in 1986 led the See SUPERCONDUCTORS, G2, CoL 4 ---
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U.S. IVIay Be Behind Japan In Supercondi1ctors: Study SUPERCONDUCTORS, From Gl United States and Japan to step up government and private spending in the field. However, debate continues on Capitol Hill and elsewhere as to the future direction of the U.S. in dustry. Commissioned by several con gressional committees, the study said Japan's effort is not a monolithic, government-directed crash program in the style of "Japan Inc." (The Japanese government provides about a quarter of research and de velopment funds, as opposed to one half in the United States.) But com pared with the United States, it said, there is generally more cooperation between government, universities and companies and a greater stress on commercialization. Long weak in basic research, Ja pan is catching up in the field and has a world-class team at work oi:i superconductivity, the report found. "If technical developments ... proceed as rapidly over the next two or three years as during 1987, Japa nese firms will be in better positions to move toward commercial applications than American companies," the report said. The United States traditionally has led the world in basic research but in recent years has stumbled in marketing products based on its dis coveries. The videocassette recorder is a prime example. One problem, the report said, is that U.S. companies are too con cerned with quarterly profits. Because commercial applications of su perconductivity are probably years off, it said, many U.S. companies are standing aside and letting others do the work. Military programs by the Defense and Energy departments account for most federal research into supercon ductivity, which reduces the poten tial for commercial spinoffs, the re port said. The study also questioned the fed eral government's longstanding phi losophy of funding only basic research and leaving development of commercial applications to the private sector. Saying the current approach "seems unlikely to provide adequate l support," the report posed two other options: Increasing government funding and sharing costs of joint research and development by the industry. A working group of experts would be set up to help shape consensus. Creation of a "Civilian Technology Agency" that would take a direct federal role in devising commercial applications. At the hearing, parts of the report were criticized by Dr. William Gra ham Jr., President Reagan's science adviser. In an interview earlier, Graham cautioned against assigning too big a role to the government, saying the United States' strength in the race is the diversity of its research community. Picking winners or losers in the marketplace, he said, "is not the government's strong suit." Also testifying yesterday was Dr. Richard Quisenberry, director of re search at Du Pont Co. He assured the committee that his company, which is doing superconductivity re search along with such major firms as International Business Machines Corp. and American Telephone & Telegraph Co., does have the longterm outlook praised in the OT A re port. ,, -"Our company would not be where it is today if earlier managers had adopted such an expedient" short term outlook, he said. --
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I U.S. Agency Sees Japanese Finns Ready To Win Superconductor Products Race By Boe DAVIS Staff Reporter of THE w ALL STREET JOURNAL WASHINGTON Japanese companies are poised to commercialize superconduc tor technology well ahead of their U.S. ri vals, despite the U.S. lead in basic re search, according to a draft report by the Office of Technology Assessment. The office, a research ann of Congress, recommends that the government establish a Commercial Technology Agency. with an annual budget between $100 million and $500 million, to aid high-risk research and solve technical problems hindering U.S. efforts to commercialize new technology. The agency would be modeled after the Defense Department's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, which explores next-generation technology that might aid the military. The technology office is preparing a fi nal version of the report, which it expects to release June 28 to coincide with hear ings scheduled by the Senate Government Affairs Committee. The conclusions in the final report are expected to mirror the draft report. But the final report's wording may be more guarded, reflecting the con-I meting opinions of agencies and individ uals who have reviewed the draft. The report is bound to be controversial beca.u.54! of its optim1Sm about how quickly electronics are pursuing superconductor research with an eye to marketplace appli cations. "Japanese R&D managers see HTS (high-temperature superconductors) as a truly revolutionary technology, one that promises radical change in their busi ness," the report says. "The skepticism common In the United States is nowhere to be found." The technology office's report chides U.S. businesses for expecting the military to find the first applications of supercon ductor technology, which would then lead to commercial spin-offs. Superconductor products for the military will differ widely from likely commercial products, the report says. For Instance, U.S. nuclear sub marines want small high-speed generators, while commercial utilities want vast, rela tively low-speed generators to power homes. The draft report says a "civilian tech nology agency" could give non-defense companies a boost in exploring advanced technology. But it cautions that the agency could well become a captive of contractors looking to shift risk onto the government. Nevertheless, it says that without govern ment help, superconductor technology could follow the pattern of the videocas sette recorder: U.S. companies developed that technology, but Japanese companies built better products and made fortunes from them. superconductor products will reach the market. In addition, it could draw fire for its criticism that excessive reliance on de-1----------------1. fense applications could slow the p~ of commercial superconductorprojects and for Its advocacy of bigger government. Superconductors are materials that conduct electricity with practically no loss of current. The materials fonnerly were Im practical for most applications because they required extremely low temperatures to work. But in the past few years, scien tists have discovered superconductors that work at higher-though still frlgid-tem peratures. Boosters of superconductor technology say that some day It will be used to build superfast computers, floating trains and power lines that don't waste electricity. But experts sharply disagree about when laboratory advances will yield useful prod ucts. The technology office's draft report concludes that Japanese companies are better positioned to commercialize superconduc tor technology because they believe it will lead to a plethora of products in the next decade. As a result, it says, they will con sistently invest in product research, while U.S. companies are taking a "waitandsee attitude" toward superconductor products. Japanese companies have the lead in developing superconductor-based trains and may well pull ahead in motors, the draft report says. It says the U.S. leads in medi cal equipment, though. The report lauds the work of a few U.S. companies such as International Business Machines Corp. and American Telephone & Tel~pb Inc. But it says a dozen huge Japanese multinational manufacturers of such diverse products as glass, steel and Wltt-t-51-')OU/2.NIJapan may take lead in conductivity By John Hillkirk USA TODAY Japan is, once again, threat ening to capitalize on a break through by USA scientists. The discovery of magical ce ramics that become supercon ductive -carry electricity with no loss of energy -earned two IBM researchers the 1987 Nobel Prize. Such ceramics could lead to computers 100 times faster than today's and trains that fly 300 mph on a cushion of air. But a study out Tuesday says the USA may blow its lead, just as it did in VCRs, color TVs and semiconductors. The congres sional Office of Technology A. ses.5ment study says: II> In 1lscal 1988, Uncle Sam will spend $95 million on super conductor research. But nearly half will go to defense, mainly for the "Star Wars" program. Japan is spending $70 million all commercial. II> Japanese firms are throw ing more money and people into efforts to actually build su perconductive products. USA firms except IBM, Du Pont Co. and AT&T -are sticking more to research, taking "a wait-and-see attitude." II> Pentagon research spurred growth of the USA's computer, semiconductor and laser industries. But that trick le-down to commercial appli cations won't work any more. The rest of the world has become too competitive.
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TV CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD LIVINGSTON NEW JERSEY 07039 201) 992-6600 ,BOO) 63 160 June 23. 1988 b:30-8:30 AM Entertainment and Sports Programming Network Nation's Business Today :vleryl Comer. co-anchor: ACCOUNT NUMBER NIELSEN AUDIENCE 101c1297 Y N/A When the Soviet Union launched Sputnik in 1956. the United States began a five year crash program to increase the number of American scientists and engineers. More than thirty years later this country may again be on the verge of a shorta:;e of th~se profe~sionals. Nation's Business Today Correspondent Dan Kush has this report. Dan Kush reporting: A new educational crisis of great importance to the business community appears to be on the horizon. The United States faces a potentially serious shortage of scientists and engineers in the 1990s. Daryl Chu bin ( Office of T c"chnologv Assessment): Rect:'nt trends. declining birth rates. more ethnic and racial minorities and slumping intt:'rests among college freshmen in these careers have raised doubts about the future supply of talent for the science and engineering work force. Kush: The Office of Technology Assessment. in a report to Congress. recommends that a new national commitment must be made now to encourage more students to become scientists and engineers. Representative Walgren (Democrat. Pennsylvania): We \\ill need research s..:ientists, science and engineering teachers. science and engineering professionals, as well as technically skilled workers for industry. Kush: Members of Comrress are worried that a dc"dine in the number :rnJ influence of scientists and engineers could further hurt U.S. competitiveness. Representative George Brown (Democrat. California): I should point out that in both Japan and Europe a far larger percent proportion of the top policy makers in both business and government comes from the fidd of--fields of science and engineering. Kush: All the experts agree. we need more scientists and engineers to compete successfully. to compete in the international trade scene. Yet the Challenger disaster and the cutting back on America s space program have discouraged students from entering these critical professions. For Nation's Business Today. on Capitol Hill. I'm Dan Kush. 302 \Vords 25 Clips Video .:a,,ette, are J\'Ji!Jbk in :inv r,,rmJt 1,,r J period ,,f fuur ,,eeb frnm Jir dJte fwm uur :1ft'i11Jte: VIDEO !\lONITORING SERVICES OF .\.c\lERICA INC. \212)736-2010
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SATIJRDAY, JUNE 18, 1988 A3 Superfund Denounced As 'Largely Ineffective' Some Oeanups Are Failures, 0' Finds By Michael Weiaskopf Washington Post Staff Wnter The Superfund toxic-waste pro gram remains a "largely ineffective, inefficient" colossus in which managers reject permanent solutions in favor of short-term fixes and select technologies for multimillion-dollar cleanups that have never proved successful or have failed at other sites, the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) repcu-ted yester day. In a hard-hitting, detailed evaluatioo of 10 Superfund sites, tre OTA concluded that eight years and $5 billion after Superfund was es tablished to help clean up the tens of thousands of contaminated U.S. sites, the program "is not working environmentally the way the law di rects it to." Superfund, administered by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), is plagued by a "lack of cen tral management oversight and con trolsn that causes "inconsistency leading to confusion, unnecessary costs and, for some sites, ineffec tive cleanup," said the OT A, a non partisan, scientific office that re ports to Congress. "Lack of consistency among hun dreds and eventually thousands of sites is not an academic issue," the report warned. "Harm to human health and the environment, loss of public confidence in government and wasting money are what's at stake." Superfund, created in 1980 in re sponse to the emerging public health and environmental crisis caused by industry's dumping of toxic waste, has inspired criticism from the start. But the comprehen siveness of the OT A study is ex pected to give new ammunition to Superfund's detractors in Congress and environmental groups. ] Winston Porter, the assistant EPA administrator in charge of Su perfund, called the 76-page report a "cheap shot" and "inside-the Beltway, armchair quarterbacking" that cannot compete in quality with the judgments of the EPA' s profes sional engineers. "We have thousands of people out there working on 850 real projects, and these guys look at a handful of projects," Porter said. "I'll put my engineers up against them any day." The report is especially critical of the EPA's failure to heed Congress' stated preference for "permanently effective" cleanups, such as exca vation and incineration of wastes. Instead, the OT A said, officials have continued to bury or cap and wall in wastes, which have proven capable in the past of forcing their way out of such barriers. At a site in Crystal City, Tex., contaminated by high levels of can cer-causing pesticides and arsenic, the EPA rejected incineration, which would have cost $15 million, in favor of burying the wastes un treated and capping them with a clay cover for $1.6 million. To the report's criticism that such short-term remedies defy Congress and eventually will fail, Porter noted that the law also requires the EPA to select cost-effective remedies. As an example of the EPA's choice of costly, unproven technol ogies, the report points to the $45 million chemical stabilization of a badly polluted site in Tulsa County, Okla. The process of digging up wastes, mixing them with concrete or clay and burying the hardened product is considered experimental by the EPA. The report emphasizes that chemical stabilization was chosen in Oklahoma and at a site in New Jersey last year, even though the same technology failed to contain hazard ous waste at a Missouri site in 1985. Many mistakes could be avoided if the EPA tried out technologies on site materials in advance, said the report. But in the rush to complete decisions to meet fiscal-year quotas or to respond to public pressures, the testing of technologies fre.. quently comes after they are select ed, the OTA said. The report said that the EPA's cost-effectiveness analyses often are distorted by inaccurate or con tradictory estimates by private cleanup contractors. In the same EPA region, for ex ample, the contractor estimates for incinerating waste ranged from $186 per cubic yard at an Indiana site to $730 per cubic yard at an Ohio site. Officials, facing incinerator costs al $51 million in Ohio, selected an ex perimental approach for $22 million. If they had received the Indiana bid, however, they could have had incin eration for $15 million. --
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1 1 L c::::, ::::-= a... :=> :z:: -=c: -::I c..::> < a..: -0 C: "' cu e cu "8 en ~i;' f~ti! ,~et~~ ~~EJ t~u;tie 11, :c -0 en ::, V~~-W~t; i]" -"'~f~11 $!jt~~J! 0i! st~Jt8i iJi I.., l!ft ~~:.:.~ --i.!! ll .. ., )ii: l Et: .,..,0 Co:l'I ,,-gc.!b,e 1;;11-"" "~;,se .c~~-e :r ~o!S~,;fe-_.,.! l!t~ir!!.,1! ~t j~;;,glj; !~li1~~i~~1:~~~-;~st i ~es1!~l i c si~1~11~,~.!!!:3!~i!Je(mit:il!i_t1 !I: ....: ... 0 ... -cu Cl) :=> ...... c;;r.2 c,::r l~E-cc:: -::I c;.:, :=> :Z:,c:c: c:>r:;.s;_ c:..::, -cs:: === :z:; c:, o:: 0 u.. ::::E Cl) u lo:: u 3: .:!! "' ::, CT cu -0 "' -0 "' e 0 go ....: ... u 0.. "' ....I D.!z""'ii""ii:1-.,-gii .. ; ~1!1 '\!.c.!! J10 <.c11-~E--- ., =J~l1~~'.li!~P.!;iat5;~J a. zc.lt-2~:l'l"B!jil~i"81t-~i:! : ~~~~~~~~<~g~jx.!!s!J~ <'" e.,>,ej~t:.,!"'~1!! R .. ;,;~t~5!~~~~5;--IS: ~lst;;8 lii~~-;s:.,15~fi f ~; ~;; = i. :i.!l~'.!i! !-~~!!-,:..; :! "'><..:.!:l-.!!f-lS ,,, s~,:J .. ,~!l ~'v.c;~o~8 >-6~~>,=: i~.,~ .., '.li!.o-e"'=,g, tii~!j..r-:,i.,,~!!E!!'j!~ ..,ns .... a;! 4>-5t o P-:>-C.--~~;l.,_ N-ti~ "'-~--~ 'r --~ u tongress Report Faults E.P.A.'s Efforts to Deal With Wastes f: ;i ----------------------------------------------------------t, u Continued From Page I and even rrom site to site, even where I At stake the 'L -----the problems were similar. The report t~ that cleanups be. permanent and said this was due In part to a lack or that residents or communities near the centralked direction from Washington. !. "We round Inconsistency to a degree I sites be provided Information so that that Is mind-boggling," Joel S. Hirsch I ~hey could participate In deciding what horn, director ol the study project, said ltlndofcleanupwasapproprlate. In an Interview. "The biggest probl'V II SltP!I Studied lem," he said, "Is an Incompetent work force" The Congressional study was based I on an examination or documents preTwo Caae Studies pared by the environmental agency In One or the places studied by the Con-[d!cldlng what kind or remedy to use at gresslonal office was the Chemical [each site. The authors looked at Control -Corporation site In Elizabeth, records lnvolvjng 100 such sites and N.J. According to the report, the envl le focused on the JO, two or them lh ronmental agency elected to 11se chem New York suburbs of Elizabeth and lcal treatment to clean up contamlna1900 Township, N.J., that they reh lion of .the soil there, even though the t Illustrated the "disturbing method was unproved. Having over trends." estimated the cost or Incinerating the The study found that the agency, In wastes, the agency did not pursue this an effort to kl!ep co~ts low. frequently option, the studisaid. Ignored the Congressional mandate to At another site, at Crystal City 1elect melhOds that would assure a (Tex.) Airport, the agency decided to permanent cleanup, and that regional put j)esticlde wastes in an unlined land admlnstrator!' decisions about what to rm and cover them over. The reporl do varied greatly from region to region said the agency could not support the effective cleanup of 25,000 such sites. conclusion that this remedy would be permanent and had not examined the various ways that burylnl! the poison ous chemicals could ultimately endan ger the public. The study did note some sites where, It said, the E.P.A. prepared good plans for dealing with abandoned waste dumps, particularly In the agency's New England region. But It said these amounted to a "small fraction" of all such siles. The study said that the agency often chose unproved remedies simply be cause they were cheap. In cases where the Government achieved an agree ment from polluters to pay for the cleanup, It fOUhd, tM agency is permit ting lower-cost, less~ffectlve remedies Instead of applying the best remedy and then forcing the polluter to return the cost to the Government. And because the states are required by law to pay JO percent of the cost of cleaning any site within their borders, the alil'llty hit al!III deferred to the states' desire for less expensive solu tions, according to the Ill Udy. 'Not a Happy Pletul"t!' "This report does not present a happy picture," said Representative Dennis E. Eckart, Democrat or Ohio, an author of the 1989 toxic waste amendments. "We Sl!e repeated exam ples of Inconsistent remedies, leek of sufficient Information, Inconsistent costs and lack of attention to the cleanup standards and preference for permanent solutions established by Colngress. "At this point we think the law Is sound, but the agency's performance Is marginal," Mr. Eckart said. But Mr. Porter or the E.P.A. said that the authors of the report "ought to read the law." "Cost effective remedies are right In of there with permanent treatment," he m said. "It says that states have to pay JO th percent, which means they have to con-"I cur. There has to be community Input sp In all decisions." While there may be lnconslstendes In the remedies ch~n. "lhat Is not all 11. bad," Mr. Porter said, adding that "no tal two sites are :e" and that different states and communities may want dlf ar, rerent remedl~. He al!lo said that the tor agency "ls under pressure from two ag, sides In Congress," with Its environ-rl@ mental committees pushing for the 1 most comprehensive cleanups whlle enl the appropriations committees de-re, mend the most "cost effective reme"p dies." In~ "We have professional people out In lot the field making II hap~n," Mr. Porter la, said, "90 I am really annoyed that a th< small group of people ~n the technology ha office do a superficial, very academic ln1 analyls." ag
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TV CLIPS 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD LIVINGSTON : NEW JERSEY 07039 (201) 992-6600 (800) 631-1160 DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM June 20. 1988 6:J0-7:00 P\-1 PBS The Nightly Business Report ACCOUNT NUMBER NIELSEN AUDIENCE 10/6297 Y N/A Dean Shepherd. co-anchor: A study of ten toxic waste sites being deaned up under the federal superfund program is critical of the E:wironmenr:11 Pr0tection Agency's management of that program. At a n.:\vs conforc11cc today Sc.:nator Frank Lautenberg said that report conuuc.:teJ by the Office of Jechnok1uv Assessment shows that the EPA is _l)in;; Y,ith d,c chc:ap1..:,L .:i1:,iilUf1 ,11.:d,._,,._:c 1.:.111:r tha11 the r,H,st dfective. Lautenberg: But the fact is that \\e wam t:1 get tho::"m on track. spend the taxpayer's money wisely. get tht! job dune. rdievc the community of the an.xieties, remove the health threats that can come from these things and do what the bw asks them to do. Shepherd: The-EPA responds that tt is required by law to LISI:! the most cost dfecti,e methods in toxic waste ckanup ;rnJ says the study is flawed because it examined only ten toxic w:iste sites. HETALUORKIHG MEYS NEW YORK, NV WEEKLY HAY 30 1988 BVRREUFS -7683 NL Hig~ T~flnol_ogy_Termed a Must U.S. mdii'stij, ~st invest m advanced materials and new technology, and government should not hinder -those investments in its policy-making, according to Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D., W. Va.). Announcing the results of a report by the Congressional Office of Teehnn)ggy Assessment, Rockefeller said, "While U.S. commercial end-users have placed themselves in a relatively passive, or reactive, role with respect to advanced materials, their competitors, notably the Japanese, have adopted a more aggressive 'technology push' strategy." Regulations by the federal govern ment that affect the industry "should work to the benefit of U.S. companies, not to their detriment" Rockefeller said he favors a combined effort by busiA S nesses, universities and the government to develop advanced materials.
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TV CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM DATE TIME ~ETWORK PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD LIVINGSTON NEW JERSEY 07039 (201)992-6600 (800)631-1160 June 7, 1988 3:00-4:00 PM MT Cable News Network Newswatch Lou Waters, co-anchor: ACCOUNT NUMBER NIELSEN AUDIENCE 10/6297 Y N/A New questions are being raised about President Reagan's anti-missile program, the Strategic Defense Initiative, popularly known as Star Wars. A study by the Congressional Office of Technolo'1Y Assessment says the Soviets could knock out one proposed version of the Star Wars program with anti-satellite nuclear rockets. In addition, the complex software needed to run the SDI computers might fail the first and only time they are used. There's no immediate comment from the Pentagon on this report. The OTA study was released even though the Pentagon had refused to declassify three chapters of it. Those chapters dealt with ways the Soviets could beat the program. June 7. JlJSK 2:00-2:05 P:v1 ~IT CBS '.'Jews Christopher Glen reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER .--\ report from the Congressional Office nt TelhnolnL'\' .--\s-.essrncnt raises new questions about Prc.>sidcnt Rc.>agan's Stratc.>gic Ddcnse Initiative ur Star \V;1rs program. The director of the: study. Thomas Caras. daims the.' proposed space shidd is vulnerable. Thomas Caras: Suppose you're trying to defend our cities and industric-s from a nudear attack in the way the president said he was envisaging. weU then, it evc:n tt:!n percent ot Soviet missiles get through. you might have hundreds of thousands ot nuclear weapons landing on the. on L.S. cities. .--\ml that would be catastrophic. 109 Words 9 Clips Video cassettes are available in any format for a period of four weeks from air date from our affiliate: VIDEO MONITORING SERVICES OF AMERICA, INC. (212)736-2010
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NEWS PHILAOELeHIA. P~. D. 252,150 SU~. 174.110 ,JUN 8 1988 .i!!4tJ.J.E1S /4 Is 'Star Wars' Too Big towork? Study Group Says Complex System Would Fail in Real War \ Associated Press G -91 't' -------------to SlSO billion to build a phase onE WASHINGTON The electronic The study's harshest system comprised of ground-basec ........_ ~rains behi~d President Reagan's criticism was reserved for rockets ~nd spacf:-based "gara~es Star Wars anti-missile system th t full of missiles which could be fired would be so large and complex that e computer sys ems at attacking Soviet missiles. there is a "significant probability" which would be needed for The phase one proposals call for they would fail, a congressional 'battle management 'the basically using existing technolog) study says. Pe t g tenn for rather than the exotic, futuristic The report by the,..congressional. n a on technologies such as lasers and beam Office of Technology Assessment is tracking and targeting weapons that were a focus of earl} the latest m a senes of scientific Soviet missiles. SDI research. I studies to criticize Reagan's Strategic -------------But the OTA report said the Soviet: Defense Initiative, as the 5--year-old could use nuclear-tipped anti-satelprogram is formally known. lite weapons that could knock out a The study's harshest criticism was real analysis, and are based primariphase one SDI system. The Soviets reserved for the computer systems ly on extrapolation from past experialready have an operational ASAT which would be needed for "battle ence as opposed to the potential of system. management," the Pentagon term for the newer technologies becomi~ The Soviet ASATs "would pose tracking and targeting Soviet mis available in SDI research and in the significant threat to all three d, sites. computer industry." fense system phases, but particular! "In OT A's judgment, there would The statement also said, "The OTA to the first two," OTA said, "Sue; be a significant probability (i.e., one assertion that strategic defense softweapons deployed in quantity, espl large enough to take seriously) that ware cannot be tested sufficiently cially with multiple decoys (to co; the first (and presumably only) time for operational confidence, short pf fuse the U.S. system) would threate1 the BMD system were used in a real war, is already at variance with sevto degrade severely the performanc, war, it would suffer a catastrophic eral decades of developing strategic of a first-or second-phase" SDI sys failure," said the report. BMD stands warning and today's offensive miir tem, the study said. for ballistic missile defense. sile deterrent systems." The report said it was unable t, It added that there is no effective Reagan said he wanted his proestimate, with a "precise degree, way to test such a system and "no gram to have a goal of making nu-how well the U.S. system could sur adequate models for the developclear weapons obsolete, but the Penvive a Soviet attack because th ment, production, test and maintetagon and SDI backers have pushed would depend "on the tactics er nance of software for full-scale BMD for deployment in the mid-19908 of a ployed by each side and on the evit .. systems exist." "phase one" Star Wars shield that ble uncertainties of battle." The Pentagon-based Strategic De-. would have a much more limited Congress has consistently cut Rt fense Initiative Organization issued a goal. gan's requests for SDI spending. Tl statement which said the concluPentagon officials last year estiprogram receives SJ.9 billion in tt sions reflect "opinion rather than mated that it would cost S7S billion current fiscal year.
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-., ,-Gfl ft ....,,._4U,'-,OJ NEWYORK,N.Y. J. 1,056,924 SUN. 1,545 :50 SAT. 818.235 .!l!~ 8 Report Sees Countermaves By Soviets on Missile Shield By JOHN H. CUSHMAN Jr. L). '11 '-{ Spec1al to The New York Times WASHINGTON, June 7 United In a written response to the report, States deployment of anti-missile dethe Pentagon saia today that recent re fenses in orbit would prompt rapid search. including the results of some countermeasures by the Soviet Union. experiments. indicate that the system, spurring a race between the superpowwhich is under the direction of the ers to exert military control over Strategic Defense Initiative Organiza space, the c;:ongressional_ Office of ion, "as now envisaged, could operale Technology Assessment said today. effectively even in the presence of all 7rpredicfeathaf the Soviet Union, ticipated Soviet countermeasures ail:! rather than moving immediately to dudirect attacks on the system. : plicate a missile defense system like "We agree that more work is nece1the one envisioned by the Reagan Ad-sary," the Pentagon added. ministration, would deploy weapons The military's statement empha-1 using similar technologies for an sized that the Pentagon and the tech-1 easier task, attacking the space-based nology office are in "complete agree weapons and sensors of the American ment" that progress on the anti-missile system. system cannot meet current schedul The report said, "We should expect without large increases in its budget, from the beginning of ballistic missile which have not been approved by t!Se defense space deployments an intense Congress. competition between the superpowers f I ior control of near-earth space.'' Some O Report's Findings I The 281-page technical review pubAmong the central conclusions of the I lished in unclassified form alter two report: years of research in which the ConqA defensive system meant to progressional agency received extensive tect American cities from nuclear de secret briefings from the Pentagon, struction "seems infeasible" unless the said that proceeding with the anti-misSoviet Union agrees to reduce the si:ae site system at the pace proposed by the of its offensive forces. Administration "could drive a race to qA decision on beginning deploj control access to space as soon as posments of space defenses in the middle Sible." Some Flndlnp Unpublished U.S. satellites and sensors would be targets. That competition would find each side building weapons for destroying the other's satellites while protecting its own. At the same time, the Soviet Union would be seeking other ways to overwhelm the American defense, for example, by proliferating its missiles, firing them with high-speed booster rockets, and equipping them with of the 1990's would mean building a decoys or maneuvering warheads. limited defense that would be made o~ The report said that the effectiveness solete by countermeasures, but whose of these countermeasures is a crucial later replacement by more advanced factor in weighing whether the antisystems would nor yet be proven feasi-1 missile program is feasible. but tnat t>le. 1 they have not been adequately studied 'iThe United States could not be s,H-e j by the Pentagon. that the complex software for a iull Although some of the study's concluscale defense against missiles woula sions have been known for several work under real operating conditions.~ weeks, most of its details became pubDespite tnese relatively pess1m1stll;' lie today for the first time. The release findings, tne Office of Technology A/I! of the report is expected to fuel debate sessment did ruirmake any aosolute on the aftli.missile issue in the Presirecommendations. denual campaign and m Congress. And its report conceded that given which is considering budget and reenough money and a fast enough pace strictions for the program. of research, the type of firsr-ohase sysSome important findings of the re-1 tern projected by the Reagan Admims-. port remail'! unpublished. because the tration for the next 15 years or so Pentagon has refused w aeclassify 'might be technically deployable." three chapters containing t:xtensivP 'discussion of countermeasures against I anti-missile defenses. r Release Coincides With Review The report comes at a ttme wt:,en Congress 1s considering how ,nucn money to spend on the "Star Wars" program, and what restrictions ,o place on the testing and deployment of its initial phase. A conference commit tee of House and Senate members tbis week began to work out a compromise version of bills on military progra{l'IS that the two chambers passed in Mar.. At the same time, senior Pentagon officials are in the midst of a review of the first phase of the program. Toe first phase is an initial deployment that would include interceptor missiles and sensors based both in space on tile ground. Its deployment, which would occur about the turn of the century, would cost $100 billion or more. 'he Soviet Union, rejecting the Reagan Ao ministration's broad interpretation ot rhe 1972 Antiballistic Missile Treatv. has condemned the plan as violation o( the pact. -, ,. The review of the first phase, offi-' clals have said, is likely to result in re structuring the program, delaying the the deployment of weapons in space but adopting an incremental approach l that would move steadily in that direct don. I The report issued today isamong the. most comQrehensive technical anal~ ses of the 'first phase deployment ever published, and the only one produceci' outside the Pentagon by scientists witll~ extensive access to secret details about the program. An earlier study pub'1 lished by the American P~cal-Soc1-I ety dealt primarily with futuristic tech nologies such as laser wea~at are not part ot first-phase si.r'ategic tte1 tense system. :_ __ "Our sense is that Phase-One is one step down a very long road," Thomas H. Karas. the project director, said at a news conference today. According to the report, ihe most im mediate Soviet response to deployment of interceptor missiles in 'Space would be to modify existing, nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles or air defense mis siles, turning them into anti-satellite weapons that could destroy the Amer ican satellites. More exotic technologies, including the beam weapons being explored by both sides for anti-missile applications, would also be useful against satellites. the report said. ..._,,
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THE SUN BALTIMORE, MD. (MORNING) D. 221.941 SAT. 363,710 S. 466.339 ,JUN 8 1988 I Capitol Hill study CB.sts do~~~~~~~,Plreliability By Charles W. Q>rddry cy's unduly pessimistic" concluWashtngton Bureau of The Sun slons, saying they were not S!Jbstantlated by conv1nctng evidence. WASHINGTON -The congres sional Office of Technology Assessment raised sertous questions yes reioay about the feasibility of a "star wars missile defense, arguing that Soviet rockets might be able to blow it up and that Its computer software might fail the first time It was used. Vulnerability to anti-satellite at tack and doubtful dependability of all-Important software combined to put a huge Q_TA_ru.testlon mark over President Reagan's goal of defenses that would make nuclear missiles obsolete. The Defense Department quickly challen~ed the congressional agen-In a 218-page report on Its two year study, the OT A said there had been "impressive technical achieve ments" that might someday" form the basts of a highly effective de fense. "For now. however, many quesj ttons remain about the feasibility of meeting SDI goals. the study said. Most "questionable, It was Indi cated, was the ability of envisioned groundand space-based defenses "to stay ahead of an ever-changing Soviet threat and to meet the goal of "eliminating nuclear missiles as a c.. See SDI, I SA. Col. 5 1 Congressional study questions reliability of 'star wars' system, V SDI, from IA deleted from the non-secret, published version of the report. ,; military threat. Rather than an end to offensive missiles, the study foresaw a con' tlnuing competition In weapons and countermeasures between the Unit ed States and the Soviet Union. The survivability of defenses -a key factor that Congress wanted studied would depend on the outcome of that race. the OT A said. The OT A argued that Soviet nuclear ant1-satell1te missiles. shot straight up from the ground. "would pose a significant threat to all phases of "star wars defenses now on the planning board. In the first phase. now planned for the late 19908 but subject to change In new Pentagon studies, there would be groundand spacebased defenses using kinetic-energy weapons that destroy on Impact. This phase could cost $75 billion to $150 billion. by Pentagon estimates. The next two phases. coming In the first 10 to 15 years of the next century. would use the directed-en ergy weapons lasers and particle beams -that gave star wars Its name. The space-borne defenses would be threatened by space-based Soviet weapons as well as ground-launched rockets. the OT A study said. The Pentagon's SDI Organization and Its contractors, according to the report. "have conducted no sertous study of the situation ai which the United States and the Soviet Union both occupy space with comparable [missile-defense) systems. Such a situation could place a high premium on strtktng first at the other side's defenses." In one of its "strong exceptions to the report. the Pentagon said its own "analysts and some recent expert ments Indicate that each phase of strategic defenses, as now envis aged. could operate effectively even In the presence of anticipated Soviet countermeasures and direct attacks on the system. At Defense Department Insist ence. three chapters dealing with de fense against countermeasures were Thomas H. Karas, who dlrecmd the OTA study, said the Pentagan had not explained Its action oot must regard the matertal as "not suitable for public debate. From the beginning of the Strate gic Defense Initiative In 1983, onem the most controversial issues has been whether It would be possible to wrtte the millions of lines of computer instructions that such an unprec edented, global defense net would tequire. The Offlce of Technology Asseslil ment left no doubt about its skeptt ctsm that computer-run detectloa, sorting, analyzing and weapons-fir Ing systems could be achieved. In Its judgment, the OT A's report said, "there would be a significant probability (I.e., one large enough 'lo take sertously) that the first (and presumably only) time the sys tem were used In a real war. It would suffer a catastrophic failure. Mr. Karas, aware of the OTA, Pentagon animosity that this asser tion had caused, made a counterbalancing point at a news conferenee yesterday: that the Soviet' Union would have to assume that there was a "significant probab!llty that the software would work. The Pentagon said the OT NB opinion on software development was at vartance With several cleji ades of developing strategic warn1'1g and today's offensive missile deter rent systems. As its officials have done before, the OT A warned yesterday that the feasibility of future beam weapons should be reasonably assured befoie the first-phase system is deplo~ with lesser weapons. The first phase could lnterce~t anywhere from a few up to a modest fraction of attacking Soviet mts stles, the report said, noting the PeR tagon 's view that that would add to deterrence of attack. :: vtet offenses. the OT A said. But more defenses would soon be needed to sustain even that level of defense against increased or more advanced. "but clearly feasible, ,T --.. I
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The Christian Science Monitor BOSTON, MASS. D. 150,807 ,JUN 8 1988 BURREU.FS r StudY highlights. Ullcertainties on 'star wars' By Peter Grier Staff writer of The Chnst,an Science Monitor 1,._~qn washlngton Conshlerab1e uncertainties remain about the cost, effectiveness, and survivability of "star wars" defenses against ballistic missiles, according to a inajor congressional study released Tuesday. The report by Congres.,'s Office of Technology Assessment (CYI'A) concludes that computer software could be the weak point in the Strategic Defense Initia tive (SDI). There is a "significant prob ability" that .software would fail cata strophically in the system's first battle, says CYI'A project director Thomas Karas. "It looks very difficult" to reach intial "star wars" technical goals by 1994 or 1995, according to Mr. Karas. SDI officials have long said their ~ob is to provide data allowing a decision on "star wars" deployment in the mid-1990s. The CYI'A study is only the latest in a string of recent studies calling SDI goals and structure into question. Last month, the Pentagon's own Defense Science Board recommended that the program be replanned, aiming toward a number of small initial deployment steps rather than a major Phase One system. These small steps would begin with a limited number of interceptor rockets based on the ground at a single site. Surveillance and weapon capability would be gradually updated as technology matured. In this way "star wars" could proceed despite uncertainties about technology, funding, and political acceptability, according to the Defense Science Board. Such a gradually emplaced system would not make it "virtually impossible" for nuclear warheads to hit the United States, a goal President Reagan reiterated at the Moscow summit. Its value, accord ing to SDI officials, would be to disrupt Soviet attack plans, making an attack less likely to be launched in the first place. According to the long-awaited CYI'A report, even after a number of these small steps had been taken, only a "modest fraction" of attacking warheads wou,ld be shot down. A "star wars" system'with interceptor rockets based in space would shoot down about 2,500 of 10,000 incom ing reentry vehicles, according to a rough CYI'A estimate. CYI'A also points out that the Soviets could frustate space-based interceptor rockets by the relatively simple expedient of gradually increasing the lift-off speed of their ballistic missiles. Thus, space interceptors "would face fairly predictable obsolescence, says CYI'A. Lasers and other directed energy weapons would be necessary for an SDI system to retain its effectiveness. Among the technologies CYI'A says still need much work are sensors for discrim inating between warheads and decoys, communications and computers, and weapons to defend the system itself against Soviet attack. Project director Karas said he was "surprised" at the lack of attention the SDI organization has given to defending space-based SDI platforms. Three chapters in the CYI'A report on possible Soviet countermeasures to SDI were withheld, as the Pentagon has refused to declassify them. ,.,
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'\'.\LL STREET JOt !~l\L i~.v Y'.:':lK, 'l ( ~-=::::n :":f!cn l < l ,-~;:; .!l\N 8 Bu&.~ .r--Star Wars System Could Be Foiled, U.S. Study Finds l.'}/17 j TI:'
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TV CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD I LIVINGSTON I NEW JERSEY 07039 /201) 992-6600 I /800) 631-1160 April 2-+, 988 5:00-5:30 PtvI 0-fT NBC NBC Nightly News Garrick Utley. anchor: ACCOUNT NUMBER 10/6297 Y NIELSEN AUDIENCE: N/A A two year secret congressional study has concluded that President Reagans proposed Strategic Defense Initiative, or Star Wars program. would suffer a catastrophic failure the first time it was used to protect the United States. The study is printed in today"s Washington Post which says an unclassified version of the document has been heid up from release to the public for seven months by the Pentagon. Jim iv[ikbszewski in Washington has more on this. Jim M i!Jaszewski reporting: In the toughest official criticism to date, the congressional report concludes that the Star Wars defense system will prnbably never live up to its promise: to provide a shield against nuclear attack. In a two-year secret study obtained hy the Washington Post, the Office of Technologv Assessment concludes that SDI. the Strategic Defense Initiative. could suffer a catastrophic failure. The report predicts the SDI computerized weapons would be overwhelmeu by the thousands of Soviet warheads and decoys launched in an ail-out nuclear attack, and that no svstem to handle such an onslaught could be produced in the foreseeable futu~e. Defense Secretary Frank c;rlucci disputes the finding as shortsighted. Defense Secretary Frank Carlucci: That"s about like saying ten years before \\"e had helicopters th,1t helicopters were doomed to failure. This is a program that we are currently designing. It has not even entered the developmental stage. r--.tiklaszewski: The report also predicts that Star Wars would be vulnerable to So, iet cuun:ern1ea:.;ures or .. .rnt,:,,1tid.:k. .ind criticizes SDI official:, for ,,il but ignoring the problem. Star Wars critic John Pike. John Pike: If we don't understand ,vhat they could do to shoot it down. if we don t understand what they could do to fool the defense. I wouldn't have much confiuence in that defense being workable. Miklaszewski: Despite the controversy, some m Congress believe it's too earlv to declare Star \Vars dead. Senator John Glenn (Democrat. Ohio): It will still be a controversy probably for the next ten or fifteen years while we. while we invent perhaps the systems that would even make us have the option of whether we go ahead or not. We don't know whether it'll ever work. Video c3sserres are av3ilable in am format for a period of four weeks from air dare from our affiliate: \'IDEO r-.lONJTORfNG SERVICES OF A1\fflUC-\. INC /212\736-20!0
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1li11r. Attgdr!l Wtmr!i LARGEST CIRCULATION IN THE WEST LOS :l.NGELES C,\l. D 1.086 656 S:l.T 992,331 ~1 IN l -::.,1~ ')Q;; APR ?8 !988 .iUR,._f?..ELLE'S C~t~tfo,phic Failure The United States has spent $27 billion on tion for nearly a year. After a summary of the missile-defense research since 1972, when it report was printed in the Washington Post last agreed with the Soviet Union to put strict limits on Sunday, the Pentagon-in a display of hubris such defense systems. The Soviet Union has made uncommon even in Washington-said that some of a big investment of its own in defense experiments the more damaging criticisms of Star Wars were and a missile-defense ring around Moscow. based on old information. Washington must spend billions of dollars Because a Star Wars network would be the most more-at a current rate of $4 billion a year-before complex system ever built, the report said, it may it can decide whether to build a primitive shield never be possible to depend without fear of failure over the United States in response to President on the computer software that would make it run. Reagan's dream of a so-called "Star Wars" system Certainly there is no sign that the software can be that will make nuclear missiles impotent and relied on in the foreseeable future, it said. obsolete. It would then need hundreds of billions of That is the answer to the question Reagan posed dollars to actually construct and launch some to scientists in 1983: Has the nation reached a level combination of sensors and weapons to shoot down of technology where it could keep nuclear missiles incoming missiles. from reaching its soil? It is not the one he wanted, Now the Office of Technology Assessment says but it still is the answer. The obvious next steps that after all of that work and money there would should start with a reduction of the Star Wars be a very good chance that the defense system budget from nearly $4 billion to $2 billion or less, would "suffer a catastrophic failure" the first and enough for basic research to make certain the only time it would ever be needed: if Soviet Soviets do not get ahead in the field but not enough missiles were fired at the United States in anger. to support the razzle-dazzle public-relations stunts The report is not the last word on Star Wars, that are keeping the program alive in these days of only the most recent indication that the harder tight budgets. people outside of the Star Wars bureaucracy look After that, American negotiators in arms-con-at the project, the less they think of it. It has been trol talks in Geneva should join with Soviet clear for some time, for example, that Reagan's negotiators in putting strict limits on how far or vision of a leak-proof shield is beyond reach. fast either country can proceed with programs that OT A, a think tank reporting directly. to Conwould lead to a separate new arms race, this one in gress, spent two years of research and analysis outer space. That would not get back the $27 reaching its conclusions, which then were turned billion that has already been spent on missile over to the Pentagon for security clearance. defenses. But it might be a small price to pay for a The Pentagon, obviously put off by the report's move that would clear the way for deep superpowdismal conclusions, kept the report out of circula-er reductions in intercontinental missiles. 1
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\ l j .1 SDI Faulted In 2-Year Hill Study --k --i-:' ~1 'Catastrophic Failure' \ Likely if Ever Used, Scientific Group Says By R. Jeffrey Smith Wllhinlton Poot Staff Wnter President Reagan's proposed missile defense system ]kelx_would "suffer a catastrophic Tailure" the first-and therefore only-time it was used to protect the United States against a Soviet nuclear at tack, the congressional Office of Technology Assessment (OT A) has concluded after a study of almost two years. The nonpartisan scientific group, taking sharp issue with Reagan's vision of the Strategic Defense Ini tiative (SDI), said in a report not yet released to the public that the detailed computer instructions needed to destroy thousands of warheads streaking towards the United States probably cannot "be produced in the foreseeable future." It also said that the timetable for missile defense deployment in the mid-1990s established by SDI of ficials requires "an act of faith" in assuming that the system could indefinitely stop a substantial portion of Soviet missiles because there is no scientific evidence to date to support that assumption. The conclusions are among the principal findings of a 900-page re port on SDI prepared by OT A's staff, which was given access to classified SDI data and drew advice from an expert panel containing SDI supporters and opponents Public release of an unclassified version of the report has been with held for seven months by Pentagon officials, who say it contains sensi tive information. Although three of the report's chapters remain in dis pute, SDI officials last month cleared nine others, including a summary chapter obtained by The Washington Post. The Pentagon is pursuing a planned first phase missile defense deployment at an estimated cost of $150 billioa. Conareu has already alaalm die Reqaq administration's annual requests for SDI funds by See SDI, AH, Col. 1
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Hill Told SDI Would Be 4Catastrophic Failure' IDU.,.Al ....,...nly JO perteftt and barred ell~ ,1q1t al till apace ....,na --.led Ir 1111 lllitill aneimiulle odlelne. Reapa ~eel that tlN pre> ,mm caa altimltely be a ..-runty ~Id" for the lJ ,S, IIQlllt~,ion. and hu ""'9ted tffom by -~ Sov1t'ts to r"'stnct ,t~ tit'Vt'lop._.,, as part 'II a tuturt 1rm9 !rl'UY -,u, th"' Sovlf't l:naon. The Sovlf'ts' 'lrffland for such rtttncuons waa ~,eratll'd durm1 Moecow rntet1np weeil betWftll Secn!tlry at Sute Georae P, Shultz and Soviet ~lldtt Mikhail Gorbachrv, The OT A report's overall con ,,_ 11 that, dnplte five yan .nd SI 2 btlhon worth ol teientlfic ,..-arm. many quntlOf'la remain bout the feu.abd1ty ol mttt1n1 SOI i<>ils." which 1ncludr at the out!et wauntaal d1srupt1on of a Sov,,,.t !TUSUle attack and in later 5tall~ ~t1on ol the thrtat poaed" by Sov,r{ IIUllllies. :-Ootlllf that the natlOII "would not ant to baae a m.1,or chanae ,n 111 ~uclrar 1tnte1Y on 1 (nuu.le de,_, 111 whlCh at had little con !mnce." the OT A report cautioned .11 1he s~em'1 aheer complelU!Y sugnted "there would always be ,1Te901vable questions about how ~ble (the computer! toltware was. OT A ooted that exisung (nul t.rv or c1v1h.anl systems must op enu autooomoualy in the fau ol Ole1lbente memy attem~ to de-ttroy thffll." makin1 the delil" ol SDI softwar, an unprecl!dented chali.nce. wtth proat of IUCCftl impos llbil!, Extnpolatin1 from past u~ nrnce ,t apl)l!an to OTA that the complni!J' of l~lhstic m1s.1111! dl!f-1. tht' uncenaanty, .. of th, requ1r,ments 11 must mttt. and the nov,,.lty of the tKhnoio&Y at must ,:ontrol would impose a 5151mfican1 pmhlib1hty of softwu~1nducl!d catutropnic failure III the syst,m's f1l"t r,al battle." the r,port ~id. The OT A report said m!Ulle de tense 5C1entist1 and ,n1lllffn have produced "imprMS1v, thnical achiev,m,nts" ov,r the pat 30 )'l!Us and rently identified "mo1t ol the IIP9 between tcxl.ly'1 technolon and that nttded for h111hly .......:tiv"' ballistic missile defenses," It ,-aid "ther, IS broad aerttm.:nt ,n 1he tKhmul community that sie. nificant parts ot the research bean, carnl!d out und,r the SOI !proanml att ,n th, natlOllal interest." and did no< ent1r,ty rule out that "such xh1evements may tomeday !acjcu muiall! to form the basis (or a h11hly ,,.ff....:tive n11,.,.1le defense syltem," But the, report allO cxpresaed skepticism that the remairuna tKh nacal problema could eventually be 10lvl!d and called fresh att,nt1on to a host ot poienual Sov11!1 measur" to counter a bal11111c nu:t.llle d4!fense. wtuch 11 said had no( been adtquall!ly ~~eil by SDI m.anaaers. oo...an P Judd, the chief ~1enti11 for SDI. Yid ynterday that '"while 11 IS no't our pracuce 10 com-Ex~ts From OT.\ Report 1-tlw Offe of T.,,OU///D Asaanw11t rwflOrl a11 tJw Strr1J4,c /111tw,t1w: "After JO years of (mi!i:iile '3eferu.el research the dctl auon and mirenuuy ol thou sanda ol U.S. toentlllll and en lJneet'I have produced many lffl ;,reauve tedwcaJ aduevemenu Por now, bowever, m.1ny quesuona renwn about tbe (e1-11bility of acluevvl1 SDI ao,Ja." -~ now know, how to alcwate. let alone demonatrate to the Sotll whether the auenoa ol coal ettuvtne11 ll tile mar11ft' hu been met by any propoaed (nuaaile defensed syaem_ "In ,eneral, many ICltntllls 111d eqmeen woninc Oil tbe SOI have creed that (Soviet! counlenlle&lur may well be feu&b6e 111 tbe near term. However, bodl wutun and outaide SOIO. there ii 10m1 ""t on tbe pocentaal type, qual,ty, number, 111d dei,ioyment '-9 ols-et COUlllffllleU-.u.. "There II Wldetprud asreeimal lhll mudl mare eiq,en ~tioa ia llMded oa .. (wv11eadl det::a,a. v.., little SOI tDGDeY bu,.._ IO (dleirf deup. COIIICnactiaa, 111d talllll." Ther, has been uttl, anal ys,s oi any kind o( space-based threats to .. system 111rvivabduy ,, In particular. SDIO and 1ti comracton have con du.::te ume tbe bal1iauc: 11111-u delenae IYl(em wen uaed 111 1 raJ war, it wouJd tufter a awc,ophicfail111e.~ m,nt on reporu before they are r,tHsed. the SDI Or1aniution be heves the r,nt OT A r,port re flects a decidedly more constnictive aSSl!ssment than prev10ua r,ports by OT A on the program, Judd. who ,erv,d on th, .11udy'1 advisory 11roup befor, he came to SDI from the Loe Alamos National Laboratory 1n Albuquerqu,. w11 appart'ntly refemna to a 1985 OTA tudy statm1 that an ,ffecllve U.S m1ss1le shield could not be dev1!ed ,f th, Sovlll!t1 are dl!t,rmmed 10 deny 11 to u1." Judd said "in some areas. we find some o( the (OTA! rtport'1 conclu 11ons to be unduly pe111m111ic." but he dechned to comment mor, IP' c1hcally unul it II formally r,leated next month. One ol the reporl's principal themes II that potenllal S.met i:ountermeaaures to I U.S. 1pacebated m1111le defenae could be Ina challencin1 and leM coatly to dewl op than the exotic space-baaed weaponry and auociated stl\lOrl currently on Dc:fenae Department drawm1 board,. "Every part of the complex di! velopment, production and deploy ment scheme lfor an mu1al m11111I, defensed wouicl have to work well and on schedule." the report said. "Otherwise, the Sovie11 could be well on the way to neutralwn(' at before 1t waa completed. But the difficulty, accordma to OT A. is th.at the proposed ltartint point for (ullIClle develo9ment ot an 1mtial mllllle defenae 1y1t,m ia so early that SDI man11en will have no way ol enaunn1 !hey could, in efft, neutnlm WleJy SoVlet countermeuuree with man effec. uve weapona liter on. Exotic, ,pace-hued laaen and particle buma, which could poten tially defeat early Soviet countermuaures 111 the third phase of an SDI deployment, will not be proven feasible for al least a decade, the r,port said. As a result. U.S. comm11ment an the mid-19901 to phaseone deployment would rtquire an act of faith th.alt ph.ue chree would prove f,asible." The OT A report said potential Soviet countl!rmeuurea include finnc miaai1a arryu11 nuclear warhead.a at U.S. IC)l(e weapona orbit 1111 overhead, llunchin1 thouuncls o( warhead rep!icu or decoY1 and deliberately .iammia( U.S. radan. The repOrt IUd that, despite SDI clauna that thete Uld ocher threa11 have been atudied in depth, a ae1rch ol SOI and conlractor file turned up "lame 11111ytia ol aay kind" ol Sov1et 1p1C9 weepone thac could be uaed IO a!Uck a U.S. miuue deteue, ,wittlr de1ndin1 ita effecuveneu. OT A said SOI otflCWI maintain th.Ir U.S. epace WU'100I could be de111ned to IUlViw a duecc nuclear attack. Bue tbe lavatlpcon concluded inalead that audt Ill attack -Would poae a IIIIUftCUt threat co all three defenae IYl(effl phue_. enviaioned by the Pentaeoa for cte= p1oyment betweee 1995 111d 2oi5. If the 5oieta wanted IO, dwy could ream"t CO Madi Ill lttadl "liefore the luutiaJ) IYl(tnl WU fuD, deployed: when it ii maec vulner aole, ~, P,"91Wq ~ ffl!ion, tbe Noo,t ....
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i ASBURY PARK PR[SS ASBURY PARK, NJ DAILY 139,585 FRIDAY L. JUlt 3 1988 299 llif1J.1JELifS XE Some hospitals,~ doctors bad for consumer's health ... IJIUDYlaMU Press Staff Writer U2 )Cf7 Y HOSPITAL DlsA TH rates and infection The two-year study looked al eight catego ries of quality information consumers could use lo evaluate the quality of health care provided by hospitals and physicians. rates and disciplinary actions taken against The study concluded that consumers physicians by state medical boards are among should use information from several of the the items consumers should have access to categories when choosing II hospital or a physi when choosing a hospital or a physician, accordcian except that much of the information is not ing to a report by the Q>!'~onal Offise..J!L readily availabl~ to the public, is considered nchnology Assessment. confidential or 1s not even collected by state "There are good hospitals and there are heal th departments. bad ones, just as there arc good and bad The report recommended that hospitals doctors," said C,ongressmaq James H. Scheuer, receiving Medicare and Medicaid funds be D-N. Y., when releasing Ille report yesterday. required to provide public access to hospital "Consumers have a right to know which health inspection reports, infection rates, mortality care providers have good IJ'ack records and rates and the numbers and types of procedures which providers could be dangerous to their penormed at the hospital. The report also health." recommended that similar information be made available about individual physicians practicing at the hospitals. "When it comes lo informing consumers about the quality of medical care they receive, we remain in the horse and buggy age," Scheuer said. "Information necessary for health care consumers to make rational decisions regarding the hospitals and doctors they use is inacttssi hie, inadequate and incomprehensible." A spokesman for the Medical Society of New Jersey said the organization did not lllOCivc advance notice of the study and would have no comment on it. New Jersey Hospital Association IIJ)Obl. man Ronald J. Clajkowski said that while he has not seen the report, anything 1ha1 sugest.a looking at quality from several different aspecll is certainly "worth looking al and that is what we are going to do." He added that the associalion has generally objected to efforts to evaluate quality of care by looking only at hospital mortality rates. Quality indicators mentioned in the study include: Sanctions against hospitals by the Joint Commission on Accreditation of Healthcare Organizations (JCAHO) and federal inspection asencies: There are "strong" indications that IODIC hospitals and physicians arc providing care that is "well below minimum aca:ptable levels of quality," the report uid. JCAHO refutes to aa=lit 2 percent of all hospitals it inspects, and 90 percent of the hospitals are cited for deficiencies during the inspection process. Mortality and infection rates for both hospitals and physicians: Up to 33 percent of all hospital deaths and infections may be preventa-blc, the report said. Pennsylvania has already passed a law that requires newspaper publica tion of statistics that compare hospitals and physicians on mortality, morbidity, infection and readmission rates. Disciplinary action taken apinst physi cians by slate licensing boards: 11IC9C actions provide the most valid infonnation about poor quality physicians, the report said, but consum ers have limited acttSS to the inlonnation. -The volume of medical and surp:al procedures penonned at a hospital: Studies show that for 10me procedures, such u coro nary artery bypass surgery and total hip replace ment sul"ICI)', hospitals that pelform fewer procedures have higher mortality rates or other adverse patient outcomes than hospitals that pelform many of those procedures, the report said.
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... ~ ,... ~.... J; n~ -.... :. '-r~ . ., l-i /---\~ !_., / \ __ / DATE TIME ST.ZI..TION LOCATION PROGRAM .I une
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Group Disputes Administratio~ On Soviet Nuclear Pact Violations By R. Jeffrey Smith W..tiinwton Plllt Slaff Wrieer Soviet test site and detailed knowledge <;i the canister in which Soviet bombs are placed before the blasts. A nonpartisan congressional scientific But the OTA report outlineda simpler group yesterday said it has found no credmethod of employing the cable for a few ible evidence that the Soviet Union has likeblasts to calibrate the Semipalatinsk test ly violated a 197 4 treaty banning extremely site in south-central Siberia, then returning powerful nuclear weapons tests, contrary to to the far less intrusive seismic system. longstanding Reagan administration claims. This method could be used to estimate the An official of the Office of Technology yield of Soviet blasts as reliably as the proAssessment (OTA), reporting on a l-year posed U.S. cable method. study of public and classified documents on '"It is conceivable the administration baa nuclear. testing, said that '"the evidence is some piece m information we are unaware fully consistent with the Russians not havof, the defense officials we talked to .are ing cheated" on the unratified Tbreshokl unaware of and the seismologists we talked Test Ban treaty. to are unaware ot: said Peter Sharfman. an The Reagan administration in 1984 first OTA official who coordinated the study. alleged a likely Soviet violation of the pact "But in all of the evidence we have seen and and reaffirmed it two months ago after we know to exist, we do not see a basis for fresh study, despite suggestions by some the [administration's) conclusion" that the administration officials that the charge be Soviets likely violated the testing treaty. dropped. The administration has cited the OT A officials noted -that, because of = alleged infraction repeatedly in justifying its certainties of existing seismic monitoring, demand for new measures to verify the 14some Soviet blasts would appear to exceed. year-old treaty and its decision to postpone 150 kilotons and some would appear new negotiations on a comprehensive nusmaller even if every blast was exactly at clear testing ban. the treaty's limit. But in fact, "all of the es,. President Reagan and Soviet leader timates of_ Soviet yields are within the 90 Mikhail Go bache plan percent confidenc:e level that one would r v to sign an agree-expect if the yields were 150 [kilotons] or ment next week establishing procedures for 1ess, their report said. two special nuclear blasts to test a new verU.S. officiaJs have long said the level of. iflcation measure backed by the United unc:erta:inty surrounding seismic monitorinl States. The two leaders are also expected techniques was a "factor of two,,, rneaniq: to sign an agreement incorporating the new that detonation of a Soviet bomb with an. verification measure in a related U.S.-Soexplosive force of 300 kilotons could be viet treaty governing so-called "peaceful" misinterpreted by the U.S. intelligence nuclear explosions that was signed in 1976 community as falling within the treaty limit. but never ratified. But Gregory van der Vink, a director cl U.S. and Soviet negotiators have long the OTA study, described this claim aa .. _,. disputed whether the new measure, which solete because new methods of seismic' involves burying a cable containing elecanalysis can reduce yield uncertainties to a tronic sensors at the explosion site, is more factor of 1.3 to 1.5, roughly the same un accurate than the existing method of moncertainty associated with the proposed U.S.. itoring nuclear explosions by recording the measure involving electrooic cables. resultant seismic waves that travel great The report not~ that "most experts beiiistances through the Earth's surface. lieve that a high-quality, well-nm network" The administration has maintained in ne-of seismic stations in the Soviet Union couJd gotiations with the Soviets that the cable monitor a treaty banning all blasts with aai should be used to monitor every blast exexplosive force of five kilotons, despite the pected to exceed a force of 50 kilotons so it difficulty of distinguishing small nucleai can verify compliance with the treaty limit blasts from those caused by conventional of 150 kilotons. Fifty kilotons is roughly explosives. equivalent to 50,000 tons of TNT. The report noted, however, that the.ver-The Soviets have opposed the cable mon-ification method proposed by U.S. official8 itor method in part bt:cause it would require has only '"limited application for monitoring a virtually continuous U.S. presence at the such a treaty .fl\. ,11 wMi+~-1 /1"'1 :;-:;, 19,ra J 17-A~
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SCIENCE KAGAZlKE WASMIMGTOM DC 0 WEEKLV 156 50 JUK 3 1988 ~ljEJ.~ ti)( -6048 =--~ News & Comment I OTA Disputes U.S. Policy on Test Ban Report says thre;hold test ban treaty is verifiable seismically and the Soviets have not cheated; a 5-kiloton limit could be verified with seismic stations within the Soviet L'nion FOUR YEARS AGO, the Reagan Administra tion accused the Soviet L: nion of commitang "a likelv violaaon" of the 1974 Thresh old Test Ban T reatv bv conducting a num ber of underground nuclear tests with vields greater than 150 kilotons, the limit specified bv the treaty. The charge has been repeated several times since-mduding as recently as last December. And the Administration has used the accusation to msist that a new and intrusive method is required to ensure chat the Soviets do not nolate the treat\'. Last week_ however, the Cong~essional Office of Technology Assessment 1OTAl rele;sed a srudv condu-dmg that "the Sonets are obser:ing a \'ield !imTr (Ons1stent with compliance., with the trean. The authors oi the srudv, who renewed both classified and unclassified information, also concluded that the monitoring technique favored bv the Administration, known as CORRTEX, is not essential for ensuring compliance, and that a limit as low as 5 kilotons could be adequatelv verified. The srudv was put together with the help of numerous experts, including scientists from the national laboratories and the De partment of Detense. who reviewed the dratts. According to Peter Sharfinan, an OTA olfic1al involved in the srudv, its prin cipal conclusions "have the assent of the overwhelmmg majority ofth1s commun1tv." The srudv is cheretore likelv to be influential in future debates not onlv on the threshold trearv but also on the possibility of negotiat ing a more restrictive pact that would limit explosive viclds in underground tests to a verv low level. The Administration has insisted chat com pliance problems with the threshold test treatv be cleared up before it will even contemplate moving toward a more restric tive agreement. The treatv has never been tormallv ratified bv the l.Jnited States, aJ. though both sides have pledged to keep their testing programs within its limits. Earlv last vear, Reagan submined the treatv to the Senate for ranfication along with. a second treat\'. a similarlv unranfied 1976 pact limitmg peaceful nuclear explo sions to less than 150 kilotons. Because of the Administration s concerns over alleged Soviet cheating, however, Reagan asked the l JUNE 1988 o -r<'T'esecorcs1 How low can you go? Seumff ~-i~nals .from .1 Slllllt't rest l,,-o 25 k,locm, re(Mded hy J Je/Snllt .UT.l}' in .\'orway, 3800 kilometers _!T(1m the !esr _,1te. Senate to attach a "reservation" to the treatv stipulating that it would not take etfect until it is ''etfectivelv verifiable" 1 Smn,e, 2~ Apnl 1987. p. 383.) The term etfectivelv ,entiable meant use of the CORRTEX te~hn1que. The .-\dminis tration .1rgues th.1t it providt:s J. mort: ..icr..:u rate assessment of vields than the use of seismometers set up outside the Sonct Union to measure the shock waves generated by an explosion. The Administration has ins,sted chat the Soviets agree to the use of CORRTEX for any explosions above 50 kilotons before the L: nited States will for mallv accept the threshold treatv. The CORRTEX technique involves plac ing a cable in a borehole alongside the shalt containing the nuclear device. The shock wave !tom the explosion crushes the CORRTEX cable. producing a signal chat can be used to measure the vield. Because it would require an armv oiU.S. technicians at the Soviet test site to install and operate. the use of CORRTEX would be highlv intrusive. ~tanv independent scientists have argued all along that seismic techniques are perfrct lv adequate and that CORRTEX is not needed, however. The OTA srudv concludes th.It seismic momtors (.lll mdet:d pro\ide .1dcqu.1tc n:riricanon of the threshold cn:.1ty. pronLkd the Soviet nudeJ.r tc~r ~ire 1~ .1de-4uarclv cahbrated. CORRTEX. 1r sa,s. would pro\'!Je J useful mdcpendcnt mcJ"ure L1f the \"lclds of one or n1,.o (J!ibrJnon ..,hots, bur bevond thJt 1r 1~ nor c .... ~cnrui. In tJ(t, Rc.ig.m ..1nd Gorb.i(hc, h..1Yc ..1in.:.1J\ ..1gn:ed to ..... permit ..,u,h ~hots Jt c,.Kh otht:r:s test "ires -\s for allegations of past Smict cheanng:. the OTA report savs that about IO out oi more than 200 Smiet tests conducted smce the threshold treat\' was signed "i,,11/d ha,e vields above the 150-kt threshold limit. depending on how the estimate 1s made." However, it points out that about the same number of L'.S. rests would appear to be above the limit if the same estimating tech nique wt:re used. OTA's own conclusion is that "all of the csnm .ues of Soviet .md C .S. rests Jre within the 90 percent confidence bel rhar one would expect if the vields were 150 kt or !css." Sh..1.rtinJ.n SJ\"S '"on tht: h.1s1s lH ..1ll the mtOrm.u10n we have rer..:ei\"(:d ...1.nd .1ll the mtOrmation we haxe been JWJre uL rhc: So\"lets hJ\'e been in compli.mr..:e with rhe threshold rest ban rrean." -SEWS & COMMEr,.,.'T 1:06\
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~an Jlranrt11rn <6~rontrl, THE VOICE OF THE WEST SAN FRANCISCO. CALIF f1 '-."ii r,4'-, '41 '-100 747 On che question of how low a limir could he adequately monitored, rhe srudy con cludes char a treary limiting explosive yields down to 10 kilotons "can be readily moni tored with high confidence" using seismic .1rr.1.,s outside the Soviet Union. "The seis mic "g:n.ils produced by explosions of this n1Jg:nirude J.re discernible and no method of ev.1.dmg J. seismic monitoring network is credible." For .1 limit below 10 kilotons, a seismic network within the Soviet Union would be required to detect explosions and discin );.'1.lish chem with confidence from legitimate chemical blasts and small earthquakes, the srud, concludes. According to Gregon van der \"ink, who directed rhe study for OTA, there was a strong consensus among rhe experts who participated in the etfort that a treary banning all nuclear explosions with an explosive force greater than 5 kilotons could be adequately monitored and that cheating would be readily detected. works within its borders by agreeing to a private exchange agreement between rhe U.S. Narural Resources Defc:psc Council and rhe Soviet Academy of Sciences, under which monitoring stations have been estab lished in both countries. The report notes that "there will .ilwa\'s he some threshold below which seismic monitoring cannot be accomplished with high certainn." A complete ban on testing might still be considered desirable "if rhe advantages of such a treaty would outweigh the significance of anv potential clandestine testing below the monitoring threshold," the report notes. The srudv did not address the military significance of verv low-yield tests, however. Van der Vink notes that CORRTEX would plav no role in monitoring a verv low-level threshold treaty or a comprehen' sive test ban. It is only useful for monitoring blasts greater than about 50 kilotons, and because it requires prior notification that a shoe will take place, it is useless in detecting MAY 77 l 988 Jl!!/tflLCS The Soviet Union has already accepted the principle of se1sm1c monitonng netclandestine testing. COLIN Noa.MAN ; Seismic Study May Affect Arms Pacts New Optimism on Detecting Atomic Tests L, 1-I \J 811 Oar,d Perlman I since 1963. wbell the first treaty wu agreements that limit the testing or The congressional panel Includ-e~""''''' .<;,-1,,.,. ,..,,,,_ ratified barring nuclear tests In the nuclear wPapons." ed scientists lonR divided over the The United States and the Soviets nn sharply lower treaty limlls on the explosive power or underground nudear weapon~ tests and still detect any cheating "wllh high confidence," a go,ernment panel or seismic experts and intelligence special ists declared yesterday. The study, by the nonpartisan Congresslonal_Qll!.c.~ of Tecluloll!IY Assessment. concluded that seismic anafyiii shows that tbe Rustans have not cheated. It uld nuclear tests with yields above 10 kilotons the force or 10,000 tons of TNT -can be "readily monitored" even If a nation tries to hide the hints. The report I~ expected to have a major effect on renewed debate In Con11ress and the White House over attempts to let'k a step-by-ttep ae ries or agreements that could lead to a total ban on all nuclear weapons ll.'!its hy the two superpowers. Con Rres., wants new limits on testlnll, hut the Reagan admlniltraUon bu argued that tbe tests are needed to develop new weapons and to UIUl'e the reliability of tbe nuclear weap, OD stockpile. The report wu releaed yeller day u President Reagan wu In Hel slnld en route to tbe MOICOw meet Ing with Soviet leader Mlkha1I Gor bacbev. They are apected to lip two alJ'ftlDellta establllblll& proce, dures for U.S.-&met ftriflcaUoa experiments tllll IWlllllft' at test sites In Nenda and SemlpaJatlnllt. atmosphere. in space and in the i~uP or Sovit't compliance wtth d oceans. Another trNty signed In Detecting u nderground blasts isling trtatil'5 and the possibility of 197.f limitted tbe power or underuSlng instruments Similar to those ..,,,n easier cheating If the ~\ ground tests to 150 kilotons -equal that mPasure the magnitude or thrl'Shoid is lowered. to 150.000 tons or TNT and hoth earthquakes has already hefon used nations ha,e ai1reed to abide by it experimentally In the Soviet L'nion Willard J. Hannon or the La,.: even thuuizh tbe treaty remains unand the Llnited Statl.'!i. rence Livermore !'.atlonai Labota-: ratirlerl hy the IJnited States. Last year. a nongovernment :~~~t:; :~~1:: The Reagan administration. team or American sfismic expert., od Ii I b I rrom the Natural ~urces Des to assure comp ance w t ow-howe.er. bas continually charged ered test thresholds. lie served on that Soviet nuclear tests have deiibrense Council successfully tested all four or the study panel's worktheir ability to detect tiny nonshop<. Hannon has directed Liver,. nuclear explosions with instrumore's seismic monitoring te U.S. experts detected tiny blasts in Soviet central Asia rnents placed near Semlpalatlnsk In search. and in published sclentUII! Soviet central Asia. articles he bas contended tbat a ae'I; Earlier this month. selsmolowork of 30 American monltorffif Rists from the Soviet Academy of stations Inside the Soviet Union Sciences detected similar small could not detect low-yield undei;-biasts in Nevada with Instruments ground tests. In California's Owens Valley 250 ",<. miles away. On tbe other side, Jack Even den or tbe US. Geological Survey Ill Government teams of Soviet Menlo Park bu published many D and American scientists are scbedentific papen on tbe ability of _... erately Pxettded the yield set by uled to begin monitoring experimic methods to measure low-yteld the treaty. ments at each other's te,;t site< this nuclear tests accurately. He w summer. th nuclear hia515 11:cnermember of three workshops. Evern alinR the si11nah. The So,1ets will den. together wtth Lynn Sykes of u.w seismic instruments. but the Columbia Unlventty wbo Is allCi a Americans wtll test a controvenlal member of tbe sctentlrte panel. m system called CORRTEX, which anargued that no more than 15 audi al1zes signals from a cable lowered stations outside the Soviet borderjl Into a abaft directly next to tbe excould readily Identify blalll dOft Yt'Slerday report declared that althougb blasts from underground tests with yields between 1 or 2 k~ and 10 kilotons might be muffled in large underground cavities. DIClll selsmJe experts be lieve that a ll9J.naJl network of ael5-mtc IIICIGitmtag statioal In each eowauy cauld det.ect any sucb at tempt at "decoupling" tbe bluts. pioding nuclear device. to 10 kilotons or less. The report crlUctzed tbe ays-Among other members of tm tem. uytng: "CORRTEX bu Umlted congrellional panel were Walter Ali appllcatton for monltortlll a low-varez. a geology profeaor at tbt yield treaty and none for detectlnc University or California In Ber clandestlne testing. and IO would ley; Karen McNally, director ol th i I A eompttbenslve test ban bas "SellmoloCY DOW pnmdes a meaDa to~ anderground DUdear e1~ down to low yteldl," tbereportald. "eftll wbea IUeD-allmlpll are made to ewadetbe-ttortncl)'ltema.By doln& IO.~ playt a central not Improve our ability to momtor seilmoloCY laboratory at UC Suda I low-yield te11t1nC tbrellbolclL The adCruz, and Wolfgang K. IL Panofby, vantage of aelllmk: methodl II that a director emeritus of tbe Stuf""1 coattnued presence of foretp per-Linear Accelerator Center, wao soanel at a test site woiald not be helped negotiate the first Um1te1S .._rv_" test ban treaty In 1983. ::: ""-.. A-a~.-t ..,_.1 ftf hnth wtinna ..,..._ i.. ....,..,.. annc rnntrnl
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~-o:, > i ::s ro 00 Ir!, g::st:l 0 ::rs. ~-C/l ... ::s: o."d e.c: <-~ I~ C: p) ::, 0 :::l "I\ ::I. 0 "'1 r+ ("') I ,0 ::sr;ra"'1. ~o I,~~ IJQ .... IJQ .... ::, --l> r+p,gd .Y'Ot'.!1 I L....I< ::1""'1~--c::-1 r-0 0 ... 'v, IJQ \ J (0 ::, 10 Pl ::r CD ::r 'v.> 0 C:: C: O 0. Iv, o CD :8Qr+O I 0 "'1 O r+ .o 0. O a ~ci fl .a er o .... H') r+, nr, p),,... = (i.!"1 ',,-.. '1"4 0 ~J IJQO. rso .... a~ '7~ "d p) 0 "1 rs~ ::, ,....._ a o ..... >'-o~ viC::o 4.;....,v-Or+>-1~ o 0 VI O ~s:-p) "'1 L, V, 0 g z C: .... v,00::, .a~ ~~=--o 9~ ,...o ot::i =--v,r+::1"~"'1"'1 .... ..... ::rp) 0 -O.or+::r~Pl~ g ~p,t::::: r+()~ 0 ::ro~oo.cr'~ p,3.0-s a~ cno o5 \ i>< ~ 0.,.. .... ..... ~-----v .... p,--1 "1 tj o''< 0 ,: 0 p O "'1 ,. B!lo. -vi -F,;;::r 8 ~ 00 .... p)_:_ o.o. ... tn =as:-~ 5 o .... c=;o ..... ::r t'.l,.oo;no P r,OH> PlC: ::T'::, Ul "-' Pl O ::, Ul O o:;?.~ooo ... "d ~'<~0 ;. ~-"1 .... 0 0 t::. 0 = r+ 0 (JQ I-' = 0 ~5~c::; v,r+O ::,o v,nvi-1.-+I C::'< :::r v!' ::::f :::r ,Q ::s .... 0 0 0 ...., 0. v," a: > Cl (I) "" ::x: ..., H oz :i>G) H-4 "" 1'"0 -c:z Cl :J> 0 n 1he Christian Science Monitor BOSTON, MASS. ll. 150,807 JUN 10 1988 _U{Jfi.LL' ---Two_ -~ore treaties .~o ratify c.' uU//Y : .. ,,TOR!AL' T HE US Senate has another opportusigned at the recent Moscow summit. nity to contribute to progress in arms Of arguably greater long-tenn import is control: It should ratify the Threshold the treaty provision that puts each nation on Tust Ban 'lreaty of 1974 and the Peaceful record as working toward an eventual ban Nuclear Explosion 'lreaty of 1976. on nuclear testing. The treaties set a 160-kiloton ceiling on In 1982, President Reagan put compre-the explosive force of nuclear-test devices, hensive test ban talks on ice until better roughly 10 times that of the two bombs used ways to verify compliance with the existing on Japan during World War II. though unratifted treaties could be develThe Threshold Test Ban 'lreaty was deoped. In the meantime, the administration signed to steer the US and Soviet nuclear has consistently held that the Soviets have arsenals away from multimegaton warrepeatedly violated the 160-kiloton limit. heads. By putting a 160-kiloton cap on J.ibr years many members of the science nonmilitary nuclear explosions, the Peaceful community have correctly called Mr. Rea Nuclear Explosions 1\-eaty closed a potential gan's plea for improved verification a red loophole that might have allowed each counherring. That view received added weight try to test more powerful devices under the recently from the congressionaLQfflce.. of guise of using them for civilian applications. '{echnolo&Y As.'iffi'\roentIt made two broad Though both treaties are important, of points: (1) Existing data show that the Sovigreater interest is the Threshold Test Ban ets have been faithfully adhering to the ex 'lreaty. Up to now, the United States and the isting testing limits; (2) seismic technology Soviet Union have adhered to the pact, so most often used to measure earthquakes why ratify it? can monitor tests with a high degree of Some hold that ratification would set in confidence down to about 6 to 10 kilotons. motion the verification procedures, which The administration should support rapid include swapping detailed data on each ratification of these two treaties. Indeed, it country's test sites. This would improve the would be a fitting close to Reagan's tenure accuracy of monitoring efforts. That is a not only to receive credit for working togood reason, although the two countries are ward cuts in existing strategic and medium getting ready to, in effect, exchange test-site range nuclear weapons, but to reopen talks data anyway, the result of an agreement on a comprehensive test ban as well. _,.,-I It C ff .:& \
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HORNING NEWS TRIBUNE TACO"A, WA OAILV & SAT 104,100 168_ THURSOAV NAY 19 1988 Bu~~ r FK High-tech tacfiCs for fighting crime raise rights issues Los Angeles Tlmes L y f1 ,f New high-tech methods for solv ing crimes and punishing offenders may endanger many constitutional rights, according to a government report being issued Thursday. Sophisticated electronic tech niques for surveillance, for exam ple, may impinge on an individual's right to privacy, according to the Office of Technolol Assessment, wfilcfi sfuifies SCleD lC lSSUes foi' the U.S. Congress. "Technology has often forced us to re-eJamine what we mean by constitutional rights," said Vary T. Coates, director of the Office of The job of Congress will be to provide for legitimate needs ... while protecting individuals from technology abuses., -Rep. Robert Kastenmeier Technology Assessment group that prepared the report, called Criminal Justice: New Technologies and the Constitution. "Electronic wiretapping, for ex ample, has been found to violate those rights, while the use of breatbalyzers and blood tests for monitoring alcohol consumption do not. The new study offers no recom mendations about bow rights can be preserved, but it concludes that "the benefits of these technologies are clear and should not be lost through fear of potential abuse." "The assistance such technologies can provide to overburdened law en forcement agencies is substantial," Rep. Robert W. Kastenmeier (D Wis.), chairman of the House com mittee that requested the report, said in a prepared statement. "The job of Congress will be to provide for legitimate needs ... while protecting individuals from technology abuses." One area in which new legislation most urgently is needed is electron ic surveillance, where "technology is far outstripping the law," said Thomas Smith of the American Bar Association, who was one of the re port's reviewers. Descriptions in the laws regulat ing wiretapping are "inadequate" to take account of such new technolo gies as night vision systems and image intensifiers, computer usage monitors, cellular telephone inter ceptions and electronic mail moni tors, Smith said. Recent court decisions "seem to say that, given more and more pow erful surveillance technology, there will be fewer and fewer places or circumstances in which one could reasonably expect privacy," the re port said. But new laws are also needed to help police, Smith added. He said, for example, that many criminals are able to evade wiretaps by using call forwarding, in which calls to their phones are automatically rout ed to other phones. "Because the forwarding occurs at the phone company's office, the call never reaches the home and the tap in stalled there," he said. Another anti-crime technology that rapidly is being adopted is elec tronic monitoring to allow convicted offenders to serve sentences at home rather than in prisons. An electronic bracelet might be attached to the offender's ankle, for example, and connected by radio to a telephone unit that automatically would notify authorities if the pris oner left the house. But most such programs require the offender to have a home and a telephone line and to pay the costs of the program. Criminals without financial means or with no fixed homes thus would be denied access to the program and, hence, equal protection under the law, the report! said. r ----------r
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~as j\ng.el.e!i wtws LARGEST CIRCULATION IN THE wm LOS ANGELES CAL. D. 1.086.656 SAT. 992.331 ~11,1 1 Ho ~oi; MAY 10 1988 Bu~eu.rs lJigh Tech .----..Civil Rights i /?, l)q~ l/~EmDti'tTOlmRlouiAliti : In the last 20 years po1ice departnien : out this country have embraced a wide variety of -new technologies aimed at improving the investi: gation of crimes. the identification and apprehen: sion of suspects and the gathering of evidence. : These techniques-which include electronic sur;veillance, the use of Jaaers to detect fingerprints. : personal identification through DNA typing, and ; the use of computers to match and share infonna tion-have made law enforcement more efficient and more effective. According to a new report from the Office of Technology Assessment, this "technological revolution in : criminal justice" al8o imperils individual rights and protections guaranteed in the Constitution of the United States. The list of new technologies available to police is long, and will get longer. In the area of electronic surveillance alone the OT A fOlllld that federal and state police agencies already use closed-circuit television, light vision systems and image intensi fiers, parabolic microphones, miniature transmit-1ers, electronic beepen, phone taps and recorders, pen registers. computer usage monitors, electronic mail monitors, cellular radio interception, satellite beam interception, pattern recognition syitems and intruder detector systems working on vibra tions, ultrasound and infrared radiation. These "technologies have repeatedly challenged the scope of protection against 'unreasonable searches and. seizures' ( Fourth Amendment), because information ii no longer necessarily em bedded in 'penons, places, papers, and effects' aa it wu in lffl, and because technology re peatedly modifies what the Supreme Court bas 'called 'a reasonable expectation of privacy,'" the (!r A's report concludes. "When police capabilities are enbaDCM, the possibility that thole capabilities will be misused -either deliberately or inadvertently-is al8o increased," the report warns. "Lawmakers and courts may need to noenmtne both the scope of __.-constitutional Umitatiom OD police power and their application to parUcu)ar activities and pro-. cedures." The full report, emlunat JUltice: New Technologies and the Constitution," descrfbes in detail the extensive use of a wide variety of technologies and their potential for infringing rights that are guaranteed in the Fourth, Fifth. SJnb, Eighth and 14th amendment& Sbaulcl electronic bracelets for parolees be permitted? Should rapi8ta be required to undergo hormone treatments? If lesa-tban lethal weapons can subdue mspects, do conventional weapons become an impermiasible use of deadly force? These and many other troubling questlons are properly raised by the report. It ii up to Congress, state legislatures and the courta to grapple with these issues and decide_ on the right answer& No doubt there ii a benlfit to aociety in helping the police prevent and solve crimes. There ii al8o a danger in giving the police more power than society wants them to have. This is not a new problem. Technology bas presented it before. Wiretapping became possible early in this century, but it took several decades before the Supreme Court decided that a wiretap without a warrant wu an unconstitutional search. Now the new technologies are more powerful, more invasive and more pervasive. We should not have to wait decades for answers. Legislatures and courts need to decide what is acceptable and what is not. -\ .,,
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TV ~LIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM TV ;LIPS DATE TIME STATION LOCATION PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD LIVINGSTON, NEW JERSEY 07039 1201 I 992-6600 18001 631-1160 \IJ\' 21. II.JI->~ 12jo.1:llO P:\I ABC The Health Show Paula Zahn. host: ACCOUNT NUMBER NIELSEN AUDIENCE ln other news. American couples are spending a billion dollars a year on infertility treatments with only a fifty-fifty chance that effort will pay off. That's a..:cording to a :-.tatus report released this week by the Congrc'ssional Office of T c'd1110\01;v Asses:-.ment. w o2lJ7 Y 2. 1 -:-2. 7lJll Gary Ellis ( Office of T echnolo!:-'Y ..\ss..:ssmc'nt): would ask th:1t you adopt the perspecti,e of the infertile ,,rnple for ,,horn ha\'ing :1 child may be..:ome their \'ery highest priority. :ind for that couple. they may be' quite ,, illing ro spend Jown aU their resources. e, en for a fifty pc'rcent ch:.ince. Zahn: The report estimates about three million infertile couples each spend frnm i..l fc'\\ hundred to twent\ tlwusand dollars for dia..:no:-.is and trc::1tment. For the most part. con, cntil1nal medical :rnd ~urgicd therap::, has been more reliable tha:1 high-tech rnethl1ds like te-;t tube fertilization. Ellis: For onh a minorit~ uf couples arc the-11(:'\\ reproductive' technologic's rc:Jlly applicabie. Z:1hn: The report recommends more public edu..:ation ahl1ut sexuall\' transmittc'd di'.:.c'asc'. which is the most prc:,entable t.:aLlsc' of infc'rtilitv. \lay 17. 1981) 6:00-6:.:;o P\1 \VPLG-TVtABC) Channel Ten Miami Evc'witness '.'l"ews .-\rt C1rbon. i:o-:rnchor: ACCOUNT NUMBER NIELSEN AUDIENCE lll / b2l); y 26-UlOO The husincss of comhating fertility is at best a ch:mcy proposition. a..:cordin!:! to the .I0Vernment. The Otfo:e Of T edrnok)g',' ..\-.~cs-;ment reported today th~t ...\mc'ri(ans spent one:: billion dollars last year trying to ovc'n.:ome infertility. but only half c'ndeJ up concei, ing: ,1 chilJ. The: report \'-c'nt on to say that couples seeking answers to whether so-..:aUed test tube fertilizario~ is experimental or prmc'n therapy simply ('annot expe..:t a blanket answer m l l)88. What's more'. access to infcrtilitv ser,kes is lar>!eh determined bv how much mone~ peL,plt! have' and \\ h~thc'r thc:y live ;c'~r univc'rsities or i:ities that otfcr sophistic:Hed .:arc'. \'1d<'Ll (;l"<'fll.'< Jr.: J\ .11J:1bk In :,m f11rm;Jt f,,r a pl'riud Llf f11ur Wi:d,~ fr,,m Jif llatl.' fr,,m 11llf Jftili:H," \ IDl:U \IO~ITUR(NCi Sl-'RVILES OF .-\..\11-:RIC.-\. !NL. 121.~l~.,b-2\llll
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RADIO CLIPS DATE TIME STATION LOCATION PROGRAM RADIO CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM ... 5 E~ST '-1CRr:.....t=:fLOAVE.'-JUE i.._.l'/l:\/GSTC.\1 ~JfN)EPSE'f0.""039 21)' j]26600,,212)227-S5~D1 3C016J1 : 160 \L1\ 17. l')SS 3:3ll-3::i9 P\I WCBS 880 ..\\1 Nt'w York Nc:'WS Rita Sands rt'porting: ACCOUNT NUMBER ...\ new report out ot Congress concludes that nc\\' techniques to assist couples who have nor been able to have children bur do \\ant them, have so far had little> sucL'c:'SS. The srPrv from \fi~o:: Hc1mm.-,r in \V:1shingt,rn. \like I-Limmer reporting: One> of the:' authors of a Congrc:ssional rc:port on fcrtility says for most l'ouplcs trying unsuL'l:cssfully to ha\c:' ..:hildrcn. the: chancc:s ot sohing that prohlem arc no hettcr than rhc:y \Vere ti\c years ago. Gary Ellis of the C'ongression;1l Office of T cL'hnologv ...\ssc:s-;mcnt says thc l1e\\' in-\ itro ft'rtilizarion tc:'..:hniquc:' of ft'rtilizing thc t'gg in a bbor:1rory Lan hdp some:' couples but that the O\ t'r:1!1 sul'..:t'ss rate is c:'.\trt'mcly lo,, ,md th:1t L'L)Uplcs should look into the: success ratc of the dinic theyrc using. Gary Ellis: Some:' dinil's ,,ill quote n..ition..il statistics--a\c:'ragc:' statistiLsand that's not sufficient. Hammer: The report finds that last yc;ir ...\rncricrns spent about :1 billion dollars trying to fight infrrtility. \like Hammc:'r. C1pitol Hill. \lav 17. !L)88 5:00-5:05 P\f .\lT C..ible >it'\\ s >id\\ ork >lcWS \li..:ah Johnson reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER The gm ernrncnt rcpL)rtS ..\rneric:rns spent one hill ion doLLir'.'> Li~t yc>;1r IL) l'Llrnh;tt inft'rtility. ho\\c:'\er unly half of tht:'m cmlt:'d up ..:uncc:'i,ing :1 ,:hild. Gary ..\lice. spokc:'sm:m for :ht' OffiLe ot T t'chnulo~\ ..\sse-.,-,mcnt. Set\ s must Llf the monev isnr being spent L)l1 -.p;1t:c: age rrc:trmc:nr,; Gary ..\J.ii..'e: Those:' l1c:'\\ in itro--thusc new rt'producti\ c:' tc:,:hnologies like:' ll1 vitro frrtilization ..ire used by only a small. small pt'rcent:tgc of infertile:' ..:ouplcs. \,lost infertility treatments consist of traditional rnediL-;tl or surgic1l procedures. h,,rnrnne rre:Hrncnts. L)r ~urgic:tl rcpair for in:--t:1t1L'e of a blockc:'d fallopian tube:'.
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NATURE t.DNOIJI<, Ell ~EEKLY ~a.aca JUH 2 1988 ... ~(jffe,ifS -~c,a US in vitro fertilization in limbo ~ccording to OT A Washington -' o/ 7 1-f Secretary Patricia Harris let it expire. The INFERTILITY therapy hai become big board had become politically contentious business in the United States. According because of its suggestion that certain types to a new report by the congressional of research on [VF might proceed without Office of Technology Assessment ( OT Al., review. which caused uproar from the US spending on medical treatment to potent US anti-abortion movement. The combat infertility amounted to $1.000 Reagan administration has not re-estab million in 1987. But. for a varietv of social lished EAB. although technicallv it is and legal reasons. US research on treatrequired to do so by HHS regulations. ments to improve reproductive success Without a functioning board. the has not kept pace with the growing National Institutes of Health (NIH) can demand for the technology. not make grants for IVF research. Under The number of infertile couples in normal circumstances. ',j[H reckon they the United States is estimated to have would receive 100 grant applications a remained constant over the past 15 vears vear for !VF-related research. NIH have at about 2.4 million. defined as those who iried several ways of breaking this legal have not conceived after 12 months of logjam. including reviewing of IVF intercourse without contraception. The report also says that about 20 per cent of all infertility is caused by sexually transmitted diseases. If the percentage of infertile couples has not changed, the numbers seeking treat ment have increased substantially. In 1968. there were 600.000 physical office visits for infertility services. but by 1984 the number had increased to l.6 million. Cunvenuonal medical and surgical treatme'lt still seems to be the most .;om mon approach. But new non-coital tech nology, specifically in virro fertilization ([VF) and gamete intrafallopian transfer (GIFT). are gaining acceptance, wit nessed by the growing number of clinics providing these services. But the OT A points out that the federal government has virtually no role in supporting their devel opment nor in monitoring their success. Private organizations such as the American Fertility Society and the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists have supported some evaluations of [VF clinics. but OT A con cludes that there is no way at present to tell whether [VF is an experimental or proven medical therapy. Part of the explanation goes back to the 1974 National Research Award Act. which set up the National Commission for the Protection of Human Subjects of Biomedical and Behavioral Research. That commission instituted local reviews of experiments involving human subjects by means of Institutional Review Boards. and also called for an ethical advisorv board (EAB) within the Department of Health and Human Services ( HHS). EAB was given authority to review grant appli cations for !VF research projects on a case-by-case basis, without which grants would be prohibited by HHS. But EAB disappeared in 1980, as its charter came up for what should have been routine renewal at the end of the Carter administration and the then HHS -----~ 00 .... = ,.... .... ,.... .... .... = .... research propo,als before passing them on to HHS for approval by the non-existent EAB. So iar. 'ilH have had no ,uccess. But the Congress mav be read, to intervene. in part b'ecause ,;f the OTA report. The House of Representatives subcommittee on regulation and business opportunities of the Small Business Committee began hearings on I June on the commercialization of reproductive tech ---:1 nology. emphasizing the need to offer at least some protection to consumers of !VF services. As health insurance coverage for !VF is uneven at best, it is an expensive gamble. OTA estimates that. on average. !VF can provide a baby for one couple in ten at an average cost of some $22,000. Joseph Palca lnferttlily: ,\1ed1cai and Social Choices. CS Conl{ress. O~fice of Technoiar:y A.sst"ssmenr. Ulashml{Wtl. DC /W/8.
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t~f~r-:. An~WDIQJDA1, MAY 1a, 19ss THI l'A!IIING'l ; ementt~ $ JJglion Spent to Combat lnfertiliiy-m,.37 .nf uples Involved Succeeded in Conceiving, Hill Reports .. ..... ,_ lore Br, Aalaated Press untary professional guidelines, qual ity of care varies widely. porting of chlamydia, the most com mon sexually transmitted disease, which can da'mage the female re productive system. Acconttn1 to c:ntics, JI rages finns' quarter!y ,rts aren't all that belpfu nerally offer onJy sucJt arks of comparison as e return on Treasury I utinely teJI customers er has done compared ,1mended by the firm. Americans spent $1 billion last year to combat infertility, and half of the couples involved conceived a child, the congressional Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) re _ported yesterday. Nearly half of the 169 U.S. clinics doing in vitro fertilization have not achieved a live birth, the report said. Even for clinics with the best success rates, the OT A report calculated that tl)e cha,!lces of taking home a baby as the result of an average course of IVF treatment is only about 1 in 10. "Efforts to prevent infertility are not well coordinated within the fed eral government," the report said. There's a reason for inhart, who heads Shea ients have a tendency 1en they see another r ming their own, even t ve deliberately chosen mager in the first plac er may lag the field in a OT A said couples can spend from a few hundred dollars to as much as $22,000 on infertility diagnoses and treatments. It said that many private health insurers do not cover infertility but that doctors often bill their patients in ways that enable them to qualify for insurance payments. The report said 2 million to 3 million U.S. couples are infertile, and it faulted the government for failing to keep an accurate count. The agency said Congress could require more data collection and sponsor development of voluntary professional guidelines or extend consumer-protection laws to selected infertility services. Access to infertility services is largely determined by people's wealth and whether they live near universities or cities that offer sophisticated care, OT A said. weJI in protecting clie ar market.) OTA said there is no federal regulation of fertility clinics or treatments and, although. there are volIt said the government collects little data on factors contributing to infertility and does not require reMr. Reinhart adds, ho, justed comparisons are est. And brokers Insist 1:;,n:11....-.nn d If a change in managers is war nted. 1stomer Demand The 1987 stock market crash, while hob ng many aspects of the brokerage busi ss. has only slightly slowed the growth In magermatching programs. "I think 're going through a period right now in 1ich most investors don't trust their own jgment," says Ashby Frayser, an invest ~nt management cmsultant at Paine'bber Inc. "They're looking for man ers who are conservative and not too ;k-oriented."' Shearson Lehman Hutton Inc., Dean 1tter Reynolds Inc. and Drexel Burnham tmbert Inc. are among the firms now of nng the arrangement PaineWebber ms to start a wrap-fee program soon. 1ke several other finns. it already ttches investors with managers, reapuas tdlng commis.,ions for its reward:.l ritiaJBache Securities Inc., wMefl1tly matches pension funds with rnalllF. ers, will unveil its version for lndJvtaF !s in August. And though MerriH Lynclt ~o. won't comment, competitors and for r employees say it, too. has a wrap-fee igram on the drawing board, to be mar ed under the name Elite. Of course. the growth in the number of 1lS offering such progrrur,.s isn't entirely response to customer demand. Brokers .eciaJly have reason to promote their ns. The annual fees provide them with a >endable source of income at a time en commission business from individ s has slowed to a trickle. For a bro "this is like an annuity," says Victor Rosasco, a senior vice president at Pru 1tial-Bache Securities Inc. "He's build an underlying stability to hiS busi;s." -...:Jtuuy vite:s LacK or ~uccess With In Vitro Fertilization By ALAN L. OrrEN Slaff Reporier of THE WALL STREET JouaHAL WASHINGTON -A nonpartisan congres sional research agency cautioned infertile couples to be aware that many in vitro fer tilization programs now operating in the U.S. have low success rates. Use of these techniques, often referred to as test-tube fertilization, is increasing, but "proficiency varies widely" among the 169 programs offering these services; many "have had little or no success to date," the Office of Technology Assess ment says. In fact, says OT A proJect director Gary Ellis, "most couples come away from an lVF clinic without a live baby," despite ; outlays of $22,000 or more per couple. No Recommendations Several congressional committees had asked the research agency to study the problem of infertility in the U.S. The resulting 402-page report made no specific recommPndatwns. OT A estimates that betwepn two and three m1ll10n American couples want to have a baby but Pither need medical help to have one or wII! rPmam unable to have one. It says that while ttiere has been no increase in the overall incidence of infertll ity in recent y,,1rs. demand for infertility services-mostly convent10nal medical and surgical ther:1 rY rather than IVF or othi?r new technolo)[Y has steadily increased, with between 300.000 and one mlllion cou pies annually seeking help. Still. as many as half of the couples seeking tre:itrnent for infertility w111 ultimately be unsuccessful. OT A says. Americans spent about S1 biJlion on medical care to combat infertility in 1987, according to the agency. Less than 1% of all couples seeking infertility treatment try IVF. OTA says; there were some 14,000 at tempts at IVF in 1987, involving about S66 million of the SI billion outlay. Preventing infertility is extremely diffl cult since so little is known about many of the causes. the report emphasizes. It sug gests that infertility resulting from sexu ally transmitted diseases-an estimated 20% of all cases of infertility"is the most preventable" type. Success With GIFT The report's remarks about IVF also cover a slightly different technique known as gamete intrafallopian transfer, or GIFT. IVF involves the removaJ of mature eggs from a woman's.ovary, fertilization in the laboratory with a man's sperm, and then transference to the woman's uterus. GIFT removes the eggs from the woman s body and then reintroduces them. together with male sperm, through a catheter threaded into the fallopian tubes, where 1t is hoped that fertilization will take place. OT A says some TO to 80 U.S. medical teams "have established a record of some success with IVF. and proficiency with GIFT is increasing." However, It cautions. the remainder of the 169 !VF GIFT progra.'115 in this country have produced com paratively few babies. Although the large, well-known rlinics provide 800 to 1,000 treatments per year, OTA says, some pro grams perform fewer than 50. :.. .l ----
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563 NEUSOAV LONG ISLAND, NV DAILY 582,388 TUESDAY HAY 311988 Bu~.E'LLFS T BQ (YOUH HEALTH The Experts' Advice on Infertility lJ,,t7Y ------;----------------as IV~' in which th<' Pm-....,.------,,------..,-,.------,~-~-" By Judith E R d I w1thnut contraception. So an a bryo is transferred from 1t 1s often reasonable not to 0 N JULY 25, Louis" Hrown, the first person the laboratory into the give up on the simpler ther-. d I b t d. I b uterus does not. '1, apie -care'ul t1m1ng of ever conceive !n a a ora ory _is 1, WI e h '' Ill years old. Smee her birth 111 England T ere ure olher considintercourse to coincide with abnut 5,000 such "test-tube hahies" have been born erations for infertile womthe monthly release of a around the world. Yet fewer than half the 169 U.S. en. One is th ut both methwoman's egg, for example centers that offer in vitro f,.rtilization the techniods entail surgery "nd the -until a year or, in some cal term for this procedure -have had any success use of potent drugs to cases, more has passed with it at all, and for every IO women who undergo timulate the ovaries, without conception. it, only one goes hmne with a child. which can have unpl,as-Belween the simpler This information is from "lnfortility: MPdical and ant and even risky sid<' ef-'lliW"""~ therapies and IVF or GIFT, Social Choices," a new Congressionalillli.re are quickie cnursrtility anxious and impatit>nl, say Uw t.xpcrts. NonPttwlPss, For a copy of the congressional report, ask for it by ccntt>rs offer GIFT Besidts, it nquin!s a woman to the medical definition (1f infi:rtility is "thP inability of titl1 and sPnd $16 to the CTovernnwnt Printing ()f. hav( i-11 least one tube in good worki11g onlPr, where a couple to conceivl' afllr 11 months of inhreoursl' fkl', Washinl{ton, I) C. 20402. 111
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I I SCIENCE ilEUS iJASHIHGTOH, DC ~EEKLV lo0,000 HAY 211988 BU(JJ?E.l..l.E'S -6049 -----11S OTA finds infertility a $1 billion problem ;-,;,.;T / I Ten y~rs al er the birth of the world's first "test tube baby," helping infertile couples make babies has become big business. says an Office of Technology Assessment ( OTA) report released this week. In the United States. infertile cou ples spent about $I billion last year on medical treatments aimed at conception. But half may remain childless, says the report, which calls for greater emphasis on prevention of infertility and better evaluation of the latest reproduction technologies. The report also criticizes the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) for what OTA calls a failure to address some of the more emotional issues involved, including funding for research on fertilization in the laboratory. An estimated 2.4 million U.S. couples suffer from infertility the inability to conceive after one vear of intercourse without contraceptio'n. Not all seek treat ment. and more than half already have at least one biological child. But fertility problems will place an increasingly heavv burden on U.S. health care. accord ing to the new report. Between 1965 and 1982, the number of infertilitv-related visits to a physician rose from 600.000 each year to 1.6 million. although the overall number of infertile couples re mained about the same. As a result of these visits, as many as 200,000 babies -or 5 percent of the total -are born each year. Most of these "assisted reproduc tions" result from now-standard pro cedures, such as surgery to open blocked tubes and artificial insemination. At technology's leading edge, however. are such emotion-laden issues as surro gate motherhood and in vitro fertilization (!VF). In the future, predicts the OTA report. roughly l00 "surrogate mother arrangements" will be made each year, despite present confusion over these con tracts' legality. Although half of the 169 IVF programs in the United States have poor records and only I in lO lVF patients becomes pregnant during treatment. the report predicts improving success rates. Costing $4,000 to $6,000 per treatment. IVF would still exclude the poor. Government inaction has stymied !VF research. says Gary B. Ellis. the OTA project leader. Federal regulations man date that. in order to receive public funding, proposals on human IVF re search must be reviewed by an HHS ethics advisory board. In a 1979 report. such a group found this research eth ically acceptable and concluded that "a broad prohibition of research involving human !VF is neither justified nor wise." The next year, however, HHS officials allowed the board to expire, essentially creating a moratorium on human !VF research that still exists. Ellis. who calls the situation "a blockade of research," said in an interview his agency regards HHS as "living in violation of its own regulations." Among the options for Congress. the report lists the appointment of a new board and the expansion of federal sup port for both IVF research and male infertility. The report also notes that eight other countries. including Great Britain and Australia, have directlv ad dressed the ethical and legislative i~sues involved in reproduction technologies, whereas the United States has not. Ellis says OTA officials consider the prevention of infertility one of the more important issues to be addressed. be cause so many cases are "eminently preventable." The study found about 20 percent of infertility cases are due to treatable causes such as sexually trans mitted diseases. Ellis. who stresses that OTA's function is merely to "lay out op tions," says the government could classify common, infertility-causing chlamydia! infection as a so-called reportable disease, making it easier to track. D. D. Edwards --J .. --------
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-~-------------COVER STORY The sound is 9ospel-true and red hot By James T. Jones IV USA TODAY WASHINGTON Regina Belle stands before a sea of at tentive faces at Howard University, trying hard to dellne soul music: "Well, um ... it's something you feel. Yeah, dlats it. It makes you say, .._-:---." ,.. A few laughs. A lot of puz~-zled looks. Belle tries again: "If a sinser isn"t sweating, sbe ain't sinaing souL" With that, she begins bellowing Donny Hathaway's We Need You Right Now. Belle weaves tr0ffl side to!lde. Eyes squeezed shuL Head bobbing with the rhythm. Voice bending notes and slicing tbrou8b octaves. N~cropbone. No amps. Just her gospeltiqed voice and a piano. At the end: applause, a bow, a dripping forehead. It must be soul. ~d, boy, is it hot Not since the 'SOs have soul singers been so popular from newcomers like Belle and Bert Robinson to soul survivors-like Gladys Knight and Smokey R!)binson. Please see COVER Sl'ORY next page~ ... .. -------------SOUL MUSIC REVIVAL 10 HIPPER, COOLER STARS EMERGE COUPLES SPEND SIi TO BEAT IIHRTILITY 10 WILTINI REVEWSRII WILLOW' 10 BJ flaDlrt Dlullcfl. USA TODAY REGINA E.LE: Soul is 'SClffl8lf'*lg you feel,' 10 The billion-dollar infertility biz By Dan Sperling USA TODAY Would-be parents in the USA spent $1 billion last year for infertility pro!> terns, but only half the couples will conceive, the gov ernment said Tuesday. Tbe repon, by the Con gressional omce of Technology Ass e s!lment, said as many as 200,000 babies each year 5 percent of the 3.8 million born annually in the USA-are conceived with the aid of fer tillty services. A couple can spend as much as $22,000 on treat ment and diagnosis of in fertility, which is succes. ful about half the time. "Much of infertility re mains a mystery; in many cases the causes are poor ly understood," says OTA's Gary Ellis. But some think the odds are better. "I think today probably 70 to 75 percent of infer tile couples can achieve a pregnancy with a full eval uation and appropriate treatment," says Dr. WUli8Jn Andrews, American Fertillty Society medical director. Tbe report stresses that as many as a Mth of all cases of infertility are pre ventable, particularly thme caused by sexually transmitted diseases that lead to pelvic Inflamma tory disease in women. PIO can cause blocking or scarring of the Fallopian tubes, says Ellis, and sometimes has no symptoms. A technique offering hope to some infertile cou ples is in vitro fertilization, in which the ea is fertil-11.ed in a culture disb and implanted into the motber's womb. But only about l in 1 o couples are successful baving a baby with this method, says Ellis. i. ; i t ;, i
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.. ~~8DC eoi= ss~ ~~G~cs:r~ D~-~ C'D~8> alai:~~1 5[a$2;~~51i1i~~;~:Ea~m~~~a~E <"'3 t:;:1c:oii;~e;~ .. !".;;!:l;;J.!"0.'1.""'~-3 $-os-=g.!"Q$ 0.i:-:1> : Bj ~~a is-;.c la:;; .fl'8 :rii i~a5 ~i: a c.~.>-~ 1-a :el~ h8i"s!1iiji'Bi -~:.i> ~if::1!..,,:p(i;i &:;-!1$1!.ii3~[c.;'8;;i8asz ~fUi~,.i'Jr;[~i~ei.~ 2 hlls.f$~~~ali~~ii~Jd~;jij~j~ ''.0"'<>'0<11.;"i;"$':, .., .,...,., ,. lli,a-._~ .,15:1 .. -;;i--cr::,-0.., n -'< ;"--~[ ... S;:-.c.~fi";-"'-2; ct 00.r1 r,-::,-c= ~(l)-~re:;~(lj(JQ3 :r::,-g 3[1.8 ,.._;.~ :~ .-8 oli;"'"'[5.!g~~ 5-'<~555-;::;~f::lig~ ii:~-:::; !. E~ ~[8_ l!ii:l ~-:,!.=: "'iioo ~<>9'"'~~!!!:Sa:ii.Qo :..-;~ "c.i n '0-c~ s c::r!~s-c.~:,:,..,lllQ.:,(b25 :ra > ~iag[ ~:[; ij:. ~~g'~sg~~-[~~-~g!~~~g[~;;i ~s-l~ :i;~ .. ~::T-= <11-, ~~:,5-S-~~q m-.oa~., .... _5 gg. i"'-v .... cp C'D ::s ""1 -0) -' 0.~ C'D I :r O (I) .., .... tn Ill .... 3 0 I ,... ___ ..,. ~~t"\fo'!r---""l'ftr'!.::'("') ::3 ;-~'O i!?-:T,g ~g~>:is"':;;i ::,rti!:tgn~ ~g.ror11 rtl' =-~::r~ g_o.;~~ ms-~:! sfl~C.n 5-~ rr ;-~-o-g S ;"l ... 3~ a.se.:,6: ~~9-cn ~;, ,1 "' (') .. a,'O O'. it g.saaF~g[~; "'3g"'::.!!!50.~~ "gct1i:t.1~:::stDl'Dc.Q-m = g ~-ji "'!.m., _!i:; ::sos-& ~~'8~~~0.~ai;i g" a._ a ... I;; --Cl'l Q) Q. ("') iil!.&a!!:6'-o s o !; :-o:,"' i;l:, E.$ .., rtl -o(IQ 'Tl-,(10 J:'D:i -vi'< ~-:l CD JD i &oa 3 5-0~: ~~iii ii'!J s~ ~" a2.as~.Q ~g~]_g ... 5! :,< ::l (/l ::*0.5 g~ noonrt~D:lc. ~~~~il[t:,8 -:P: t\. Ul ~t en~ ~~Cb J' Cll" Cll Cb ..... !:j ...... to ..... ...... 0 !:j '"1 :::t-. ...... ,.j i:11 $1 billiOilttf ;ar sPJt in fighting infertility with 3 nnllion, or 11.2 percent, in By Robert Engelman SCRIPPS HOWA.AD NtWS StAVICE About 2.4 million American cou pies spend $1 billion annually to beat infertility, but half remain childless despite the effort, a congressional report said yesterday. However, infertility does not seem to be on the rise among U.S. couples. the Office of Technology Assess ment said in a 420-page report on the issue. "For most couples it's probably not any easier today to have a baby than it was five years ago;' said Gary Ellis. project director for the OTA study. "For a very small number of couples there are new ways to help them conceive a child." A decade ago, in-vitro fertilization (IVt') produced Louise Brown, the world's first "test-tube bahy:' Mr. Ellis said a recent survey of 41 !VF clinics found that despite spending an average of $5,000, only 6 percent of couples attempting the procedure are successful in any given attempt. An addit10nal 4 percent succeed later. Success rates are considerably higher with conventional therapies to reduce infertility in men and women, but rarely exceed SO per cent. IVF is used with women whose ~'allopian tubes are irreversibly blocked. Working with 1'182 figures, the au thors of the study found that aboul 2.4 milhon coupleH, 11r 8.5 percent. were infertile in 1982 -not counting those surgically sterile -compared 1%S Despite the decline in mfertility, the number of physician visits has soared in the same period, from about 600,000 per year in 1965 to 1.6 million in 1982, the report found. Success rates for IVF vary widely with mdiv1dual reproductive clinics, Mr. Ellis said. lie recommended that couples visiting a clinic press its doctors to reveal the indivi~ual clin ic's rate. not national averages, wluch he said they often dte. Another new reproductive tech nology, gamete intrafallopian trans fer. or (;[F'l'. has success rates vary ing from IO percent to 56 percent. Bui many climes practicing the pro cedure have had linle or no success, the report found The (;[1-'i' procedure involves in Jccting sperm and egg together in the Fallopian tubes. where fcrtihza 111111 occurs. In IVE an egg is exposed lo sperm ma petri dish, and the em hryo 1s then transferred to the uterus The report called allention to the fact thal the federal government, be cm1sc of the controversy over expl.:r1mcntation with fetuses. discour ages research on I VF by refusing to fund any. The report also stressed that ahout one in five cases of infertility n:~ults from sexually transmitted d1s9sc~ prindpally gonorrhea a11J chlamydia -and could be redw .:cd hy national programs to cumhal such Jiscascs ...... """
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Fort Worth Star-Telegram FORT WORTH, TEXAS O. 127 .682 SAT. 261,135 SUN '<()6 "--18 MAY 20 1988 BvegEu.cs \Changing world r L U.S. mustadaptorpayconsequences 0 U~1l\.\ The winds of-cbange are blowing, and United States will have to make fundaAmericans had better adapt to the mental changes in the way it operates, changes or suffer the inevitable conseincluding altering the tax laws and many quences. government regulations that currently in. That is the upshot of a report by the hibit rapid reaction to changing events. Such alterations may challenge longcongressional Office of Technolog1 As. s~~nt after a four-year study of new chenshed principles held by people on all technological developments. The OT A sides of the political spectrum, but such is said that the next two decades will be a frequently the cost of social and economic evolution. time of prodigious change that could result in great improvements in the United The world is changing quickly' and this country must either change with it, States, but only if Americans are willing to through unprecedented cooperation be-change with th e times. tween public and private sectors, or be left The report said that, in order to take full in the dust by those iations that recognize advantage of emerging technologies, the opportunity when they see it. i .--... 'I
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\ er 1 n:: r ST. LUUtl ru::>1-111:>t'Al\.n ST. LOUIS, MO. D. & SAT. 308,279 SIIN 51 l.f>fi'l ~ASAZ ( MAY ln 1988 U(J/3.ilifl ~----'---___J 2tanges From page one <:ure American businesses." "With each opportunity for prog ress, there are opportunities for serious misstep," the study says. "Change can create an America iri graceless decflne, fts living sutndards falling behind those of other world powers." The report Is titled "Technology and the American Economic Transi tion.'' Eight congressional committees ordered researchers to take an ln-itepth look at the forces now at work on society and what the impli cations were for policy-makers. "We know that we are moving away from an economy heavlly de-. pendent on raw materials, where mom businesses were Isolated from 1nteniatlonal trade," said the project director, Henry Kelly: As'one example of how change has already reshaped the country, the study says that the number of Iawye~ bankers, scientists and accourt. tan'8 needed to supply Americans with food was now roughly equal to thenumber of farmers. ln fact, only four out of every 100 jobs In food production are on the farm. More than half the jo~ In food prOt'h.ictlon are held by sales people, precision craftsmen, managers and data entry clerks. The study says that for the country to take full advantage of emerging technology,. Congress should consider making fundamental changes In Its tax laws and various government regulations. "Regulations designed to protect consumers may have outlived their usefulness In areas ranging from banking to_ housing to electric utilities," the study says. In the tax area, the study urges reducing or abolishing the tax on capItal gains and revl91ng or abolishing the corporate Income tax. The report says these taxes reduce needed In vestment to boost U.S. productivity. The study also says that the deduction for housing Interest should be limited to a fixed amount because It made little sense to encourage Invest ment savings In the form of home purchases but not permit the complete deductibility of educational expenses because this discouraged In vestment In human capital. Among the report's predictions about the future are: New technology for collecting, storing and manipulating Information has the potential to revolutionize the economy. Businesses are already spending 40 percent of their Invest ment dollar on computers and other 1 "Information" machines, double the share from 1978. "The potential productivity gains In this area the movement and organ ization of Information are at least as great as those produced (by) tbe first Industrial Revolution," the study says. Increased foreign competition was Inevitable with the post-World War II recove~ of Japan and West. ern Europe and the etiiergence of sophisticated production In places like Korea and Taiwan. Undisputed U.S: economic leadership may be lost, but the change does not necessarily mean that U.S. living standards will decline. Living standards In Britain r6se steadily for a century after It lost Its dominant position In the world economy. Consolidation of farm ownership Is likely to continue so that by the year 2000, the 14 percent of farms with annual sales higher than '$250,000 will account for between 80 percent anl;I 90 percent of total sales. Likewise, groceries will continue get.. ting larger, So-called superstores with 200,000 square feet of ~pace offering 20,000 products now account for 28 percent of all grocery sales. The U.S. housing industry, to combat the decline in home owner ship, may follow the trends of Sweden and Japan, moving toward prefabri cated homes built on assembly lines, sold In showrooms and then put together on the site. The nation's edu~atlonal system Is on the brink of major technological changes through the use of computers. The changes will make learning more productive and fun while allow Ing teachers more time to spend with Individual students. .._ t.i:i a II ls c:-..a 'o l{l .9 ti a s .!, J!l 01>.,j :si QI ci> o ~uo~-Qlo >Ql01> c:1~c:1::s a.~~-< u o t al QI~ = :-te-f .e :a e i-... ,-...,.Jjl'tl!"o~:a gsta ~:s!~~_g~~-~r~ i~~&: ,._ '"'A) ~c:1-ci! ~Oc= Q1::S.:IQ1~l:0111f ._ ...... .._ s: Cl ~ii ~el! g_ QI ~i g ~-s. g f,E ~; c:s __,oec:1,:n;i: I.I~ .. "8a~g,j-gofj "'~-t., C:S z t QI "'.c1 -o o 1.a i:' a~;, QI .g ... es si O z c .... ...._ -g~:.>-S .S:! 8,ii-;;j i.SQl.ut-95.!!~-5 -~.a~< -. c.., ..., i1u ll; :i u ls "o e t .g 1 ?. ... ,g o ZmQl.c1-~.,,,,,, -?. E!\!tll-G>c:1 E~iii~m QI rr, ,-..,_ ~';:&::~-i.Soft;c.S-iii~ 0 .'ci Ql.:!1111~~';!-g QI ".I. ""AJ = Ul' -~ QI .. 000. QI .cc:I ~i(C1SC1,;2 ... Q1::S{I) ....__ ... _,__ < a QI .,, 1111 o. ll QI v s QI t:QI = t .:, .sa :si = QI e ,ih:i -1111 o 1--.,. == -rf.,::,.oo~Qld. ,cl -~ 1111c:1-::st0. ::,Ql::sc:1-= -.J c,"J~P-.0::,~~~s~Ql~(O Q1Ct0fO~ri-g>,o.~tOQI mcu5o~~ -s~e -9.S-SQl~Ql~"'~f ~-9
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'l'H.1 SUN ... BALTIMORE. MD. (MORNING) O. 221.941 SAT. 363.710 S..
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DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM May 14, 1988 7:007:05 PM MT ABC Information News John Deignan reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER The U.S. economy, at a critical high-tech crossroads--that's the finding of a study by the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment. Details from ABC's Tony Sargent in Washington. Tony Sargent reporting: 10/6297 Y The study tries to look at the choices to be made by American consumers. workers, investors, and Uncle Sam, based on complex new networks that deliver goods and services like health care, food, education. and recreation. It says rapid changes are taking place that shift old patterns. For example. supplying Americans with food now requires just as many lawyers. scientists and data processors as farmers. The study says changes like that provide more opportunity for well-trained people. but less than ever for those with skimpy education and training. It warns the United States risks being bypassed by nations that find better ways to use their new technologies. Tony Sargent. ABC News. Washington. May 23. 1%8 7:00-8:00 Atv! Financial News Network World Businl:.'ss Report Update: Eye On Washington Paul Strassels reporting: Strassels: And this from the Congressional Office of Technolo!!v Assessment. within the next twenty years \irtuaily !:.'very product. servil'e and job in the country will be substantially reshap~d. ;\Iany ne\\ jobs will be l'reatcd and old ones_ will b~come_ ubsolett!. Em.::rging technologies and rapid change will shake the foundation ot the most sec~rt! American businesses. Pirms that anticipate the latest high-tech advances will prosper. whil!:.' those who conduct business as usual will undoubti:dly be:-ldt behind. With .in c\'e on Washinl!ton. rm Paul Strassds. -,
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TV CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD i LIVINGSTON I NEW JERSEY 07039 (201) 992-6600 I /800) 631-1160 Mav 31, 1988 5:00-6:00 PM Financial News Network FNN Evening News Doug Ramsey. anchor: ACCOUNT NUMBER 10/6297 Y NIELSEN AUDIENCE :N/A American corporations aren t doing enough to retrain employees and the educ:nional system itself isn't doing the job either. Those are just two of the conclusions in a wide-ranging new study by the U.S. Congress' Office of TechnolOLT\' Assessment. Joining us to discuss that problem and what to do about it, from our Washington studio. is project director Henry K,dly. i\.fr. Kelly, thanks for joining us today. Henry Kelly (Senior Associate. Office of Technology Assessment): Good to be with you. Ramsey: I'm afraid I can't hear you. I'm hopeful that you can hear me. First question would be. what do you think is the big problem from the perspective of corporations in addressing the training issue'? Kelly: Well. I think that they've got two kinds of problems. One is the education levels of the people who are entering the work force. A large number of them are going to be people who are from minority groups or ,vho have. at least in the past. been disadvantaged by the educational system. I think both they and the corporations could benefit from upgrading their skills as they enter the work force. Second, they've got to worry about what to do about retraining the people that are already in their work force because jobs throughout the economy are changing at a very rapid rate and companies who are unable to have people that adapt along with their production systems are going to be in very bad shape. Ramsey: In your study, did you find out that there are certain companies in certain industries which are immune to the problem or is it extremely widespread? Kelly: It's quite widespread. It affects everything from manufacturing to insurance companies to the educational system itself. The people have reacted to it in two different ways and that's the distinction that we've tried to worry about in our report. As these new production systems involving communications, computers. robotics and other things enter the work force you don't have any particularly obvious way of using this in new production systems. And there have been two strategies that are possible. One is to try to design around the assumption that the--a large number of the workers are going to be poorly trained, have to be trained very quickly to fairly rote tasks and then simply be fired, laid off or disposed of whenever they're no longer needed. Another strategy is to try to make the workers themselves flexible, giving them the skills that are needed to learn the new equipment as it comes in. to be able to figure out where the company is going and to help the company grow. And one of challenges of public policy and of corporate Video cassettes are a\"ailable in am formm for :i period of four weeks from air dare from our affiliate: VIDEO MONITORfNG SERV!CtS OF AMERICA. INC. (212)736-2010
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TV CLIPS 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD! LIVINGSTON, NEW JERSEY 07039 (201) 992-6600 I (800) 631-1160 policy is to try and make sure that we move rn the second direction rather than the first. Ramsey: Your office, of course, is part of Congress--of the congressional arm of government. Do you see government as having a role in promoting this type of retraining and education in the workplace? Kelly: It certainly has a role. One of the questions that we raised in our report is whether the idea of educational entitlement needs to be expanded beyond primary and high school education and community colleges and state supported schools and have--moved into a system that more broadly follows people through to their careers and also provide some kind of training for people who aren't going to go to college. Ramsey: And would you--is your report essentially favoring that type of entitlement or just raising the question? Kelly: We can't recommend anything since we--our main object in our reportwe're a non-partisan organization--is to raise these questions in order to clear terms. I think there's no ambiguity about the fact that a problem of training the U.S. work force is a very real and a very compelling one. Probably the most important issue we face is we're looking to the future to find out how we can become competitive on international markets and how we can use technology to the advantage of American consumers. There are a lot of different ways in which this clear problem can be solved. Part of it is giving the appropriate incentives to private firms so that they can engage in their own retraining. Part of it is providing information to people so that they know how to retrain. what kind of programs they can engage in retraining on their own. and partly it's a question of finding the highest leverage of public funding. Ramsey: Henry Kelly, m Washington, D.C., thank you very much for joining us today. Kelly: Thank you. 775 Words 65 Clips
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f3d,A_c ,,_,rfc ,At I J_,:_/ I '-; I .... H,gll / The~ of the Fuue: More Jom fcN' the Educated -L.-......,....--,----,---,---,-' -ol t=~==::i:::=i:=-_j_-i_-4--J ail -,o 15 20 2S 30 l5 > '6 _, .. lllillr.-C:::Jr1 SOUACE: Offlce of Technology Asaesament Under 'tramfonnation scenarios' projected in federal study, the proportion of jobs held by coDege-educated workers would grow substantially, while jobs for the least educated would decrease. r I -\._/' New Technology Seen as Charting 2 U.S. 'Futures' Education Will Dictate Choice, Says Agency (;L'ro/yilliam Snider WASHINGTON-The impact education policy will have on determining the quality of life for American workers may be far greater than its overall contribution to economic growth, a massive new federal study concludes. Though the two outcomes are related, the report says, how much trust U.S. busin esses put in the capabilities of the workforce will affect what direction economic development takes during decades of rapid techno logical change. And the choice, it says, could produce fun. damentally different futures. On the one hand, pressures to improve efficiency and flexibility could result in the use of the emerging~hnologies in ways that tap the creative capacities of a welltrained-and suitably compensatedworkforce. But on the other hand, the report envi sions "a system where a well-educated elite enjoys a majority of the benefits, while the costs of flexibility are paid by workers forced to take temporary jobs with narrowly defined tasks monitored by electronic sur veillance." The two scenarios are contained in the .most ambitious undertaking to date by the Office of'Tuchnology Assessment, a nonpar tisan research agency established by the Congress in 1973 to help lawmakers grap ple with the increasingly complex issues raised by new technologies. In Technology and the American Transi tion, the o.T.A. for ~e first time stepped I~ Continued on Page 16 ,:::::\ '1 1
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EDUCATION IIEEK WASHINGTON, DC 42-TIKES/VEAR ~o,ooo ttAY 18 1988 BuJJ~EUFS -2230 Managers & Professional Specialty Technicians & Sales Service Occupations Prec1S1on Production, Craft. J & Repair J Operators, Fabncators, & Laborers Farming & F'orestry -10 10 20 30 50 r The Growing Demand for Education (% of jobs for indicated lev_,. of education) 45 40+-------35-+--------30 -+--------25 .,.. _______ Undor4yrs.HS 4 yrs. HS % of all 1972 jobs % of all 1986 jobs Percent of all jobs G::::J % of 1980-1986 job growth -All jobs in 1986 DJobaadded1~ New Technology: A Choice Between Contrasting 'Futures' Continual from~ I V'"' Mna in inlernational mar/rm. "People moot likely to prosper in for better-edw:at.ed workers, the n,. maJ edw:ation and ~cal ma _;,.,,) Thegapoeparatingthe productiv theae networkaareprotean," itsaya. portnota, they 8f1alaa "mak[ing] it tery o{ a subject." back from ita usual detailed analy-o{ specific -and taken a broad ioolr. at the combined impact ol t'-developmentaonAmerican1Dciety. The 501._ report, which "'1111 llcheduled to be reieued May 15, makes no predictions about the like ly outcomes of current trends, but irurtead "attempta to provide the clearest po,mble deecriptjon of the available choiaia an,,I their implica-tiona." Using a complu: model of the economy, the report eumines how curnmt ti'l!llda and policy choices ripple in,,..... ways tbn,qbaut each -olU. _, iDdllA-ing food, bouoiag, i-Jth, tnmportation. clothing, communicationa, and recreation. But unlike similar reporia by eco nomic-6recaatin finna. the O.T.A. report ala conaidera nonquantift. ablew:ton, such aaconaumertastes and pre&n,nces and the quality o{ iifeatyiM that economic changes ooul.d produce. N-techooingiel muld reiDmrce the trend towarda maa-produced guoda and IWYices, the report or they ooul.d help build an -hued Oil the tailoring af prodw,ta ta apecialimd ............ -. "The iaue ia whetber the llaibil ity and dynamiaD -'>al lie pr,>_ in the~-,rill oome at the -o{ individuala, or whether individuala tbemaehea will become more flmible becauaeol continuoua ~-I.ming and growth, it contenda. ForcmMw.tr. The report describea four m*1r ron-.....twas ta reshape the u .s. ...-y: Tlw capahililia gained ~It -~-porli,ctdarly tJue .... to-~. The altent.. in the -andpsb,nana,oltbe-yt,,.. ing wrought by technology have "]Jnl\'eD tobe-ting"to ..... sure, aa:ordinc to the lludy. "Some evidence af the alltaDiabing impact ol the new technoioa, how ever, can be _,, in the fact that o""" 40 percent o{ all new inmenta in plant and equipment are now in a category called 'inlilrma tion t.echnolocf-ten, copy ing machinM. and the like,. the ..... port states. '"!bat ia double ita ahant in 1978." TM _loa_a,f_~~~a!' pn~miity lew,la in the Unit.ed States and in '"nle talenta nealed are not clever po,mble to conaider real improve-..._...__ the 'U-.urable' the countries that are ita ~r in bands or a strong back but rather menta in the prodw:tivity of both -temational competiton hu been the ability to uncieratand inatnJc. teaching and leaming." cutinhalfduringtheputlOOyean, tiou and poarly written manuala, aa:ording to the report, a develop-ask queatiou, aaimilate unfamil. ment that bu caused "a conver-iar infunnation. and work with unOnly corporationa and the mili tary have moved rapidly t.o exploit the advantages of new instructional technologies 1uch as microcom puten, videodiac:a. and sophisticat.ed training oimulaton, the report saya. gena, in living standarda, incomes, familiar teama. and labor roots. The availability of such broadly c~ in 1M re/alio,uhip be-edw:at.ed worken will be a m.,.-TDOun:a and productivity. factor in determining how buai-The limit.ed supply of natural n,. ,_ respond to the changing ecollOW'C0!9 haa cauaed American indua-namiccoaditiona, theatwiypredicta. "niia ia due in part to a different style a{ management,. it maintaina, "and in part to the fact that since ti-Ol'(&llizatiou pay the sa1arie11 a{both atudenta and teacben, they are aa int.enated in the productivity o{ a atudent' time aa the prodw:t;;y. ity of the teacher's time." tries to "learn to m.a.ke mere with "Will.,,.._ch,mgeandgrow 1-, according to the report, with under the uawD!llion that worken the l'MU.it that "far fewer tlrma are will be well eclucat.ed and inteJlectu. conatrained by iaclo: al-. ally 8mble, or will they plan with The report adda, ho-, that tbuumpuon that worken will be inatural-resource iuuN will ipanDt, uatninable, and unrelia "The talents needed are not Technology will not have a impact OD the nation's public achoola, the report wams, until edw:aton and policymaan exhibit "a willingnem to r,,oi,ape what is taught, where it ia taught, how it ii taught, the point in a penon'a ....-when it is taught, and the ,_ of talenta Meded by the !Mdlingltd" clever hands or a strong back." -ledallacJ ad ... A-*-1'rllllida continue ta have a m*1r impact on economic ~ty: the availabil ity a{petroleum and the limita olthe environment's ability to abaorb TlwftJOlutiono( AnwnaJ11 vaI,,a and-. Chanpa in th-spheres &ave had "dramatlc and oometimM compies inO,... in pattema ol coaawDm' expenditure and in labor marua, ,.. the report. '"l'here bu clearly been a ch,mge in the behavton that Americana find acceptable, and a conaequeat inaeue in the range of choicea available for individuala, it aaya. '"1beoe come on top of an underlying pattern of demographic: of no small co~uena,, 'Stronc Backa' Not Needed These cban-. the teporta aaya. have led to the formation of "elaborate production network.a" that tie such divene sec:ton of the economy aa communicatiana, transportation. marketing, and sales in ever more complex wayw to the actual produc tion oi guoda. These new networks "an, not only changing the reiationahips between they are alao changing the relationahip between the mar ket economy and the unpa.id work done by family members, the report states. ble?" it aaka. "Another way o{ aakinc t.hia qua. The way. in which technology tion ia wbetlMr people will be able ta might coatribute to t.hia reabaping find a variety of altnctive oppartu-will depM,d ti.Yily OD pubw>poli,:y nitiea 6Jr work. or whether only the the report saya, outlinms credentialed elite will eDjoy i,uch op-two lltark altemativea: partunitim." "Tbe.,-couldchangeina way Given the unemployment pat-tbatmaualearmngman,pl'Odudne tamaolthe put 20yean, the report and6m whileallawincteM:bmwman, aya, the evidence ia dm the leut-time ta ape,,d with individuala aa educated membenaf lDCiety will lie coadim or tut.on. It ooul.d put man, tiJreed to bear the la..,part;,.. of pc,W9' in the haadaofthe i..n.,, taithe c:oota o{uncertaintJ an,,lc:iump, kr llllllzw:tion to eachlewl "We have waiteot too IOIII" tan,-olun
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Rethinking Technology's Role in Econotnic Change Ambitious effort to evaluate the role of technology in the U.S. economic future indicates need for regulatory reform, shifts in business practice, and emphasis on education ABOUT 40% of all new invesrment in plant and equipment in the United States now goes to purchase infor mation rechnology-.::omputers, telecom munications devices, and the like. J use 10 vears ago, the share was only 20%. That startling jump is one of the tew concrete measures of a fundamental transformation under wav in the American economy that is "likely to reshape virtually every product, every service, and every job in the United States," according to a new study by the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA).* The study, one of the most ambitious undertaken by OTA, is a 4-year effort aimed at understanding the complex interplav be tween technology and economic change. It is nor the usual extrapolation of trends dressed up as forecasts. Rather, it is an attempt to analyze the networks of produc ers and consumers, which together make up the American economv, in a way that looks at the qualirv of the products, services, and 1obs involved. This approach is very differ ent from the usual economic analyses that examine isolated slices of the American economv such as "agriculture." It was not an easy task. "It turned out to be verv difficult to get academics to think in the way we thought necessary," says Henry Kelly, who directed the study. What emerges from the effort is that the American economy is being reshaped by three principal forces: new technologies, a rapid in crease in foreign trade, and changing tastes and values. Information technology, says Kelly, "has fundamentally changed where to look for economic growth." It has also c;hanged no tions of efficient production because many emerging technologies can reduce the size at which enterprises can be economically com petitive. This teature has already trans formed the telecommunications business and the environment for regulated monopolies, and in theory should make it profitable for businesses to fill small market niches. If there is a single take-home message Ttchnolog:, and the Amencan Eamomie Transition (OTA, Washington. DC 20510-8025, 1988), $20. 20 MAY 1988 from the voluminous study ( 500-plus infor mation-packed pages), it is that the economv "is at a crossroads" and its future course rests on a disparate set of conscious choices. Whether the economy moves on a path leading to stagnation, rising imports, and growing unemployment, or on a path of rapid growth and technological change, will require "an unflinching reexamination of the way businesses are managed," and a thorough reassessment of the rules, regulations, and incentives adopted over the past few decades, the report indicates. In short, the report suggests that ability to respond quickly to changing consumer tastes will place a premium on flexibility and should force corporations to move awav from the centralized economic management and mass production that has dominated the industrial scene for much of the 20th century. At the national level, too, "prescriptive government planning [ appears to be] less desirable.'' And in areas ranging from corpo-Percent (constant 1982$) 50~--'------'--------~ 40 30 20 10 1955 1950 1965 ,970 1975 ,980 1985 Information society. Chart shuws investment in information technology as percent of aJl investment in producer durables. Share has doubled in less than JO vears. 0 Percent unemplcyea 1970 1972 197 4 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 4 or more years of D of n,gn scnool 1-3 years of college less tnan 4 years of n1gn scnoOI Winners and losers. Unemployment according to educational level. Technical change will demand more educated work force. rate income taxes ( a case can be made for abolishing them) to labeling of consumer goods ( informed consumers may make bet ter choices), reforms are needed, the report says. In the regulaton arena, technological changes "mav increase the need for regula tions to protect the health. safrn. and priva cy of individuals,'' but there is a crving need for a thoroughgoing reassessment of the confusing and often inconsistent mass of environmental regulations. A central theme that leaps out from much of the analvsis is that education, broadlv defined, wili play a pivotal role in the co~ing economic transition and its impact on individuals. The changes already under way in the economy are placing an unprece dented demand on the intellectual skills and knowledge of American workers," the report states. About 45% of the job growth between 1980 and 1986 was in profi:ssional and managerial occupations, and almost 50% of the new jobs created between 1983 and 1986 went to people with at least 3 years of college education. The report notes that previous economic transformations were closelv associated with major public invesrment in infrastructure such as railroads, canals, electric lines, and highwavs. In the coming economic transi tion, an equivalent infrastructure will be an educated population. It is not an area in which the United States is doing very well. But the potential for applying new technology to the learning process is enormous and barely tapped. The report urges a major commirment both by the tederal government and industry to research on understanding how people learn and to the development of new educational technologies. "If the fraction of gross expen ditures invested in research were the same for education as for the average privately owned business in the United States, about S9 billion a year would be spent on educa tion research. This is 60 to 90 times more than the present allocation." The studv also indicates that ''the Nation's future has probably never been less con strained by the cost of natural resources." A decade or so after the economv went through wrenching change in the wake of wild fluctuations in oil prices, that conclu sion may seem surprising. It stems from the observation that future areas of growth are likely to come from the application of tech nologies that require few natural resources. Indeed, ''optimal use of new technology could result in a 40 to 60 percent decline in the use of natural resources, even when there is rapid economic growth," the report states. That is a far cry from the "limits to growth" philosophy of the early 1970s. COLIN NORMAN NEWS & COMMENT 977
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---1 The Big Problelll ~f Brittle Books Sr:,f1vcE-f A, a-v J.-I ; \ i)J-1 /it Preservationists use high-tech, low-tech methods to fight the culprit-acid paper ALONG the corridor of chemical plants east of Houston, where the production of petrochemicals and plastics is the norm, the Library of Congress is running an unusual set of experiments in a pioneering attempt to rescue millions of books from oblivion. The challenge at the Texas Alkyls, Inc., plant in Deer Park is to develop a reliable method for removing acid chemicals that are slowly eating away the printed knowledge of the world. Some experts believe the Li brary's experimental process offers substan tial hope, but the technology is still unproven on a commercial scale. The process has been suspect because a previous experiment with the process ended in spectacular failure when a major explosion damaged a pilot plant in Maryland. ::-Iext month, the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) isexpected to release a report evaluating various methods to com bat the acid in paper. Although the findings will not be officially disclosed until then, Peter Johnson, project director of the OTA report, said in an interview that the Library's process "is the most reasonable choice" among the current alternatives to neutralize acid paper. But he notes that the current plant is only a pilot and that a full-scale facility will require additional design, con struction, and a "shakedown" period. The task of preservation is urgent because tens of millions of books, manuscripts, and documents are literally crumbling to dust in libraries and archives around the world. Since the mid-1800s, vinually all publica tions worldwide have been printed on highly acidic paper, which begins to disintegrate rapidly 50 years after publication. The decay of books and documents due to acid paper "has been a hidden problem," says Patricia Battin, executive director of the Commission on Preservation and Access, a nonprofit group devoted to saving the infor mation in brittle books. But now preservationists are pressing state and federal authorities, publishers, and industry to help put out what they call the "slow fires" that are destroying books. Librarians, conservators, and archivists are promoting the transfer of information from 598 brittle books onto microfilm and optical disks, and they are urging the use of acidfree paper by book publishers. Last month, for example, the National Library of Medi cine began a campaign to encourage medical publishers to print on alkaline paper. Until recently, "preservationists weren't as organized as they are now. They really have been beating the drums," says Faye Pladgett, assistant staff director of Con gress's Joint Committee on Printing, which has a strong influence on the types of paper purchased by the government. But they face a long, uphill battle. Lack of funds and inadequate technology hamper their efforts. The sheer quantity of works embrittled or endangered is staggering. Progress is "incremental," Pladgett says. As a result of preservationists' efforts, she says, in the next 2 months the Joint Com mittee on Printing will issue a purchasing standard for "permanent" acid-free paper for important federal documents. The major problem at present, however, is the huge volume of books and documents already in print. In the United States, 25% of the collections at old, large research libraries-or 76 mulion books-will crumble into confetti if handled, according to esti mates by the preservation commission, which was created by the Council of Library Resources, major American universities, and others. At the National Archives and Records Administration, more than a half billion sheecs of paper are at "a high risk of loss," according to Archive estimates, and the number is rising at a rate of3% annually. Rare items already get kid glove treaonent bv the small cadre of conservators at the Library of Congress, the Archives, and elsewhere. But this labor-intensive treaonent is reserved for the most valuable works ( see box). Peter Sparks, a senior preservationist at the Library of Congress, says that conserva tors at the turn of the century predicted the enormous problem. But "it's taken more than a half century to get ... big enough to get the attention of people." The root of the problem is that paper just is not made the way it used to be. Since its invention in China almost 2000 years ago 7 until the mid-l 800s, paper was made mainly from linen and cotton, which forms a long lasting web of cellulose fibers. (Among paper purists, Egyptian papyrus sheets do not count as the first paper because the fibers were not separated and reformed.) But in the 1850s, as the demand for mass information mushroomed internationallv, papermakers turned to wood as a chea~r source of fiber. Unfonunately, manufactur ers must add alum and rosin, which are aluminum sulfates, during processing to prevent ink from bleeding or feathering on the paper. The sulfates eventually turn acidic. The switch to wood as a fiber source "was the start of the demise," Battin says. Once a book is embrittled, the paper is probably beyond redemption, to the chagrin of the many scholars who prefer to use books rather than microfilm, preservation ists say. ("People go bananas when they have to discard a book.," Sparks says.) A few new promising methods exist to strengthen the old paper, but none is widely used. Microfilming or using optical disks is expen sive. The Council on Librarv Resources savs that if duplication among the 76 milli~n fragile books is eliminated, and the lisi win nowed to the most valuable titles ( a \ough task in and of itself), about 3.3 It!rlhon books would be left. The costs to process and record the information of these selected books alone is roughly $380 million, says Robert Hayes, dean of the Graduate School of Library and Information Science at the University of California at Los Angeles. This month, the preservation commission asked Congress to appropriate an additional $200 million over the next 20 years to broaden preservation activities by the National Endowment for the Humanities, but the commission's clout is untested. So far, however, "we're only chipping away at the brittle book problem," says Tamara Swora, who helps direct microfihn ing at the Library of Congress, one of the leaders in the effort. Swora notes, for example, that 11,000 volumes at the Library are photographed annually although an addi tional 77,000 start to disintegrate during the same period. The Library of Congress, the world's larg est library, has worked hard to pertect a deacidification cure for its own unique hold ings. Already, 3.5 million are too fragile for handling. The Library receives 6000 new books dauy, virtually all printed on acid paper. The ideal method for the Library, Sparks says, is one that treats lots of books at a time and "requires no previous thought'' in selecting what items can be treated. "You want to be able to take books, maps, docu ments, and posters in a wholesale way, move .-i SCIENCE, VOL. 240 -
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them into a black box, so to speak, and remove the acid," he explains. The treatment should also leave an alkaline residue on the paper to act as a buffer against any remain ing acid and environmental pollutants such as sulfur dioxide. Treatment could extend the life of a book three to five times, he says. From the outset of its search, which be gan 25 years ago, the Library of Congress has focused almost exclusively on one chemical method to neutralize the acids. Early on, researchers at the Library discovered that thev could deacidifv a handful of books by subjecting them to ~apors of diethyl zinc ~r DEZ in a pressure cooker. But the system is still not refined, and the Library has been criticized for pursuing the DEZ method exclusively at the expense of other tech niques. The Canadian Librarv and Archives rou tinelv uses a method known as the Wei ro proc~ss to deacidify books, which relies on different chemistry from the DEZ process. It treats 150 books at a time. The Librarv of Congress aims to deacidify 3500 at once. The Canadian process also requires that books be carefully sorted, adding substantial time and expense to the process. The Library of Congress, meanwhile, has suffered some embarrassing setbacks. In 1982, it enlisted the help of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration ( NASA) and Northrop Services, Inc., to set up a pilot DEZ plant at the Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland because Goddard had big vacuum chambers to conduct the tests. The recipe for DEZ treatment is as fol lows: books are put in a vacuum chamber, dehydrated, permeated with gaseous DEZ, and then rehydrated to restore flexibility to the paper sheets. DEZ and its by-products are not considered toxic, chemical experts say. But as Sparks, who has headed the Library's mass deacidification project for 10 years, notes in an interview, "DEZ needs special handling'' because, in liquid form, it ignites spontaneously with air. It also reacts vigorously with water, quickly forming eth ane gas. In early December 1985, the vacuum chamber at the pilot plant caught fire during a test run because water was accidentally mixed with liquid DEZ. The blaze caused significant but not major damage. Two months later, on the afternoon of Valentine's Day, a researcher opened a valve in the system and, within seconds, an explo sion occurred, blowing apart the walls and two doors to the equipment room, accord ing to a 1986 report by a NASA investiga tion board. Brine had been mixed inadver tently with liquid DEZ, leading to a tremen dous buildup of pressure of ethane in the 29 APRIL 1988 -Rare Treatment for Rare Items Of the millions of items ever printed or drawn, few are chosen for individual conservation. But when they are, preservationists will go to great lengths to save a paper treasure. With painstaking care, the conservators, who combine the skills of a chemist and the creativity of an artist, restore books, maps, manuscripts, music scores, documents, and photographs. At the Library of Congress, for example, an old book may get a new binding : done bv hand aiid a custom made box with a small bone hook for a closure. The ti-rtle may be done in calligraphy. On a recent afternoon, single sheets of a book had been dipped into an alkaline solution to neutralize the acid in the paper and dried individually on racks. Small, new boxes constructed by hand from acid-free paper board encase a series of children's books, called "Big Little Books" from the 1930s. Other jobs are impressive because they simply represent a big effort. Last year, the Library encapsulated in clear polyester sheets all of the 1917 editions of Iz11estiia, the first year of publication by the Soviet newspaper. At the National Archives, a team of conservators in the basement tend to the na tion's most valuable historical documents. To restore small holes in an old Civil War document, they make a patch that blends invisibly with the original by actually making the paper to match its weight and tinting the new paper with water colors to correspond with the original. A black-and-white photograph by Margaret Bourke-White is torn, missing a half-inch square spot on the side. A conservator re creates the missing chunk with just the right amount of gloss and grays. The federal government's most elaborate and costly conservation effort is cen tered on the Charters of the nation-the Bill of Rights, the Declaration of Indepen dence, and the Constitution. The Charters were written on parchment, which is made of animal skin and has been quite durable over the centuries. Thev are stored in a helium-filled cabinet sealed in 1952. But the Archives uses a new $3.5-million space-age tool to help monitor their condition. A high-resolution camera coupled with a computer, developed in col laboration with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, measures minute changes in the documents. The camera can move as little as l millimeter at a time and converts the image into a million byres of data, which are then fed into the custom-built com puter. Alan Calmes, the preservationist in charge of the Charters, says, "We're look ing for changes in the image." On the first page of the Bill of Rights, for example, Calmes is tracking the first "e" of "We the people. The ink of the letter has flaked off ever so slightly over time. The dream of preservationists at the Archives, like those at the Librarv of Con gress, is the broader use of acid-free paper. Kenneth Harris, director of ilie Ar chives' preservation policy and services, notes that today's pens don't help preserva tionists either because vircually all of them use acidic inks. "Most pens today are junk," he says. M.S. NEWS & COMMENT 599 ;q I I
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-pipeline. (No books were in the chamber and no one was injured in either accident.) After the explosion, NASA authorities deemed the pilot plant so unstable-because it could not account for all the DEZ still believed to be in the system-that they ordered the $574,000 unit demolished. Li branr of Congress officials argued against such a drastic action, contending that the pipes could be tapped to locate the DEZ. But a week after the accident, the Army Corps of Engineers was called in by NASA authorities to "disassemble" the plant with explosives, the NASA report said. The February accident "was a comedy of errors,'' said George Cunha, who wrote a lengthv technical report last year on mass deacidification techniques for the American Libranr Association. The accidents rocked the library commu nity and confirmed their worst fears-that the DEZ process was dangerously unstable. The Library did not help itself by withhold ing details about the explosion soon after it occurred, Cunha notes. The project was denounced in an editorial in the Library J ournai, a major trade publication. Senior editor Karl Nyren, in a 1986 piece entitled "It's time to dump DEZ," compared the accidents to the failures of the Sergeant York gun and the Challenger disaster. Sparks asserted in an intenriew that the explosion "wasn't_ such a big deal as it was blown up to be. That's not a pun." Daniel Boorstin last vear noted in testimonv before a House education subcommittee, prior to his retirement as the Librarian of Congress, that the deacidification program was ''a pio neer project, and like all pioneer projects, is subject to risks.'' But the NASA accident report revealed serious flaws in the management of the experiments. For example, project research. ers initially said that 30 pounds of DEZ were shunted into the svstem before the accidents occurred, but investigators later discovered that more than 700 pounds of 600 --Crumbling to dust Millions of books are at risk because acid is eating awa_v the paper. DEZ were actually fed into the pipelines. The crew failed "to follow good practice in the development and implementation of op erating procedures," the report said. "The Board obsenred that a certain amount of improvisation occurred during the opera tions which preceded these mishaps." William Welsh, deputy Librarian of Con gress, acknowledged last year at a House appropriations hearing that "collectively, NASA and Nonhrop Senrices ... did not have ... expertise in chemical processing." Sparks savs that "it was a mistake on our part to stay with NASA. We should have gone to the chemical industry for help [ from the start]." Now all eves in the libranr communitv are on the progress of the si.2-million pilot plant run by the Texas Alkyls, which has produced DEZ for 20 years for chemical polymerization. Two chemical engineering firms have collaborated on its design and construction and an industrial chemical en gineer serves as Library staff adviser. Johnson of OTA says that the plant is "well designed and well operated on a pilot scale. I don't know of any major problems." Eight of 18 experiments have been com pleted to date, says plant manager Joe Ligi in an interview. Ligi says, "There is nothing that we've been confronted with so far that we had not anticipated," but he would not elaborate. Sparks has barred reporters from the plant since it went on-line earlier this year "in order not to disturb the experi ments," he says. ''What would you want to see? It's like watching grass grow." Sparks estimated that a commercial-size plant could be designed within a year. The big plant would process up to a million books a year for 54 to SS per volume, he predicts. Until now, the Library had planned to build its own facility at Fort Dietrick, Mary land, near Washington, says Sparks, who has a large banner hanging on the wall outside his office, "Fort Dietrick by 1990 or -Bust." But in a major shift, this month Sparks has begun advocating that the Library sign a long-term contract with a com pany that would build its own DEZ deacidi fication plant on the East Coast. ''Fort Die trick is not the heart of the chemical indus trv," Sparks savs. The companv would license the patented DEZ technologv from the Library and sublicense it to others. "That's a wonderful change of events," says Carolyn Harris, head of preservation at Columbia Universitv's Butler Libranr. ''The Library of Congress doesn't need to be in the chemical business." Johnson comments that the new plan "is a good approach." The Library has already received an unso licited proposal from the parent company of Texas Alkyls, Akzo Chemicals, Inc., to build such a commercial plant. The ultimate solution to prevent the acid paper problem in the future is to convince book publishers to use alkaline paper. Manv university presses publish on acid-free pa per, but this accounts for onlv a modest portion of total book publishing. Several factors in the paper market dis courage wider use or availabilitv of acid-free paper. Alkaline stock is generally re~araed as more expensive than acid paper, at least according to conventional wisdom,'savs Battin of the presenration commission. ".-\.lka linity is just one factor that goes into the pricing of paper," she explains. In addition. mills have little incentive to change because book paper accounts for onlv about 5% of the total 11-million-ton market for printing and writing paper, according to James Hutchison, a vice president at the American Paper Institute. Converting a paper mill to produce alkaline stock is expensive. On the other hand, plants making alkaline paper produce less pollution than acid paper manufacturers. And in some cases, alkaline paper is competitive in price with acid stock. Ironically, successful operation of a large deacidification plant could leave publishers merely with what Sparks terms "a moral incentive" to shift to acid-free paper. Other companies besides Akzo are already beginning to see book deterioration as a commercial opportunity. One of the nation's biggest book binding companies, In formation Consenration, Inc., in Greens boro, Nonh Carolina, established a conser \'ation division last fall to restore books and other materials, for example. It hired Don ald Etherington, who was a consenrator at the Libranr of Congress for the past 10 years. Etherington says he preters to restore rare books, "but we need to tackle consenra tion on a larger scale." Cunha says, "I think the ice has been broken. People are starting to pay aJtention." MAR.JORIE SUN SCIENCE, VOL. 240
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1..u" u", c.n WEEKLY jQ,000 )t o.d-u.--t.R, HAV 5 1968 BU!!5EU.E'S -'699 er Changes in environmental release laws possible OTA submits report to Congress Tiered risk assessment proposed ., "7 / Washington u -~ o/ '1 OPTIONS for the regulation of the deliber ate release of genetically-engineered or ganisms were presented yesterday to the US Congress in a report* from the Office of Technology Assessment rOTA). Al though the report avoids making specific recommendations, its conclusions sug gest that a shake-up in the regulation of biotechnology is necessary. Congressional interest in deliberate environmental release has been spurred by gaps and overlaps in the regulations of the various agencies given responsib lity for biotechnology under the Coordi nated Framework for the Regulation of Biotechnology. The Coordinated Frame work. set up in I 986. is a patchwork of earlier regulations drawn from the Envi ronmental Protection Agency ( EPA). the Department of Agriculture. the National Institutes of Health and the Food and Drug Administration. Overall coordina tion is provided by the interagency Bio technology Science Coordinating Com-mittee ( BSCC). But the a;encies have yet to agree upon the definition of "ge netically-engineered organism. and what is an environmental release. Congressional efforts to force the agencies to tighten their regulations. and to confer statutory authority to the BSCC have failed so far. The current OT A report recommends the creation of another coordinating body with suffi cient muscle to direct the preparation of review standards for field-tests among the various agencies. Currently, proposals to field-test ge netically-engineered organisms undergo case-by-case review by the appropriate agency -a process that is likely to be swamped once the number of biotech nology products increases. OT A sug gests a stratified scheme whereby only organisms that contain genes from a pathogen or which pose a chance of disrupting the ecosystem into which they are introduced would be subject to rigor ous review: other field-tests would be evaluated by comparing them to previ ous ones. Adequate assessment of the risks posed by field-tests will depend upon better data on the movement of geneti cally-engineered organisms in the envi ronment. according to the OTA study. Such research overlaps disciplinary boundaries. and would be encouraged by the creation of an interagency task force .. or an increase in the level offunds for the study of natural selection. says OTA. Despite the suggested changes. the OTA study concludes that "'the adequate review of planned introductions is now possible". Even so. the report is more cautious than a similar assessment pre pared by the National Academy of Sci ences (see Nature 328, 653: 1987). Con gress s reaction to the report will be gauged by whether the committees that requested it go on to submit legislation -a move that will probably be opposed by the biotechnology industry and the scientific community. Carol Ezzell New Developments in Biotechnolol!v-Fie{J-Te.\tlnl! Enf,!1-neered Orf,!amsms Genetic unci E,,,to{!trnl h.1ut'~ Office/ Technology .-\sse~sment. Wa-,hmgton DC. I 4i'!~ ,.. ) --, ....
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&ntt ll!ruttri!1rn Qrqrnniru THE VOICE OF THE WEST SAN FRANCISCO. CALIF. o ,'i\ 'i4'i Si\T 500.747 MAY 9 1988 B1.1PffiL'S r ,-I Biotech ~~eld Tests Don't Scare the Expert! l,l-1'1'f B11 Dcwla Perlman The report notes that several Modoc County supervisors and envismall but real chance of survivin c_,,. Sclc11ee EdJlor tests releasing genetically altered ronmental protests held the project and multiplying." The field testing of geneti cally engineered microbes de signed to improve crops, live stock and human heaJth 19 un likely to disrupt the environ ment, and Its benefits should be substantial, an authoritative government report deelares. Although open-air experiments call for caution, common-sense reg ulations can assure that tests involv ing the release of the engineered organisms are conducted safely and can yield information for future de ,elopment5 in agriculture and med icine, the report says. The dNiled analysis of policy lssues in biotechnology wu Issued last week by the Office of Technolo gy Assessment. a nonpartisan agen-:Y that adVISeS Congress by moblllz log International. expert& to review :iew development5 In the appllca t,on of scientific discoveries. The government's current methods for reviewing field tests of ttie newly created organisms are 'adequate to anticipate and prevent most potential problems," the rei;ort declares. Scores of genetic engineering flrml are already operating In Call fornla. and controversial field tests of their products have either been completed or are planned In such varied projects a., protecting sens! tive plants against frost. making cnpe resistant to pesticides and diseue, and improving the growth and reproduction of farm animals. Because some tests have met with widespread publlc resistance and lawsuiu that have delayed them for years, the congrt!S!ional report Is expected to have a major Impact on smoothing the cumber some regulatory machinery that now involves federal, state and even coanty agencies. bacteria Into the environment have up for four years. When the bacter already yielded "a large body of re-ia-treated potato tubers were finally assuring data" about the !&fety of planted. vandals uprooted them. the experiments. Similar reallstic field tests, in fact, are the only way that potential rillks for commercial use of the genetically engineered organlsms can be evaluated, the re port notes. In any event, the report con cludes, "serious ecological prob lems" are unlikely from any of the proposed small te!tS that Involve In traducing newly created organlsms into the environment during the next several years." Opi11IN Suneys The congressional agency commissioned several opinion surveys to assess the public's concerns over genetic engineering and the openair tests. Thoee surveys found that although 82 percent of the public approves of small-scale tests of ge netically engineered organt,ms, only 53 percent approve of largHCale experiments. "Americam seem to be pragmatic in Judging genetic engineer A similar furor arose In Contra Costa County In 1985 when scien tist5 at Oakland-based Advanced Ge netic Science!, Inc., received a per mit from the .Environmental Pro'There are reasons to be cautious, but there is no cause foralann' tection Agency to spray an engi neered bacterial product trade-named "Frostban" on straw berry plants. The county supervi sors banned the experiment for a year and It was conducted last April. OtllerTests ing," the report says. "They are conElsewhere In the nation, how cemed about the morality and -.aleever, field experiments met far less ty of these new developments, but opposition, and In Mississippi two are willing to greet biotecbnolog-~years ago a major chemical compa with optimlsm if reuonahle precauny tested genetically engineered tiona are taken." bacteria designed to protect tobac The same feelings, of coune, are not necesurily shared by peo ple In the communities where the test5 have actually taken place. The report describes in detail the furor that hit Tulelake in Call f ornia after the government's Na tional Institutes of Health approved a Untvenity of Callfornla project to spray a small potato patch with ge netically engineered bacteria de signed to prevent lethal frost from forming on the sprouting plants. Lawsuits, resolutiom by the co plants from leaf-eating caterpillars without opposition. Even members of the local Sierra Club chapter agreed that the test seemed ''Valid and safe," the federal report said. Releasing organisms endowed with new genetic trait! Into the environment may carry potential risb, the scientist! who developed the report conceded, because my organllm deliberately Introduced Into a new environment bas "a ,..... .. But those organisms are un1lk ly even to survive in their new em ronments, and so the report's maj( conclW1ion Is that ''there are re sons to be cautioWI, but there is r cause for alarm" about the ne technology. That technology la already re olutionizing medicine with new g netically engineered drugs, va ctnes, hormones, antibodies and e zymes. But the major impact Is me likely to be in other areas, the r port says. Bacteria can be altered to used as pesticides. or to make cro resistant to diseases, pests, droug or temperature extremes. In a. mats, milk yields of cattle can increased, poultry growth rates c be Increased and fish made me suitable for aquaculture. OIi Eaten Bacteria have already been c ated that can digest petroleum in spills, and others are being design to degrade toxic wastes or to pur water. "It is important to note U modifying organisms for spec! human ends is not new,'' the stu says. "Selective breeders of pla: and animals have heen tnnsferr genes for millenla, often creat forms through centuries of sel tlon that differ from their origi stocks more than the forms > duced by recombinant DNA me ods." The 15().page analysis bu b<' presented to a subcommittee of House Science, Space and Techn< gy Committee, and congreato hearings will examine the need new, streamlined regulatiom such federal agencies as the E. the National Institutes of Hei: and the Department of Agrlcult1
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--= ~~\ia~11 ~~~:"N!Jllfl'J.~ :~;:; il!!!i.~r-_1111!,Jf~hll!!r,~---..... -...------------~--.--Report Boosts Biotechnology Experiniellts Risks of Small-Scale 'Jests Outdoors Called Minimal By Malcolm Gladwell W......,PaotStdWrits Biotech companies looking to introduce man-made life fomis into the environment received a boost yesterday with the release of a congressional report that said the risks associated with small-scale field tests of bioengineered organisms are minimaJ. "Nooe of the small-scale field tests pro posed or probable within the next several years are likely to result in an environmental problem that would be widespread or difficult to control," the long-awaited Office of Technology Assessment study said. The report's conclusions are similar to those reached by a National Academy of Sciences panel last year and echo what some scientists and biotechnology officials have long maintained. But the OTA findings, the result of three years' research, represent the most comprehensive look thus far at the issue of environmental. release. The study could prove pivotal in the efforts of agricul tural biotechnology companies to loosen federal regulations that so far have hampered the pace of the industry's research and de velopment. "The OT A has substantiated what the technical people and scientists having been telling us all along," said Jerry Caulder, president of California-based Mycogen Corp. and a pioneer in the agricultural biotechnology field. "They're saying. 'Let the science go ahead."' OTA officials werecarefa--.tbat the study does not give 311-mr: t I& ID f 'adorsement to all outdoor biota:L aJlL ot:.-"This is not a red light, hlllilfaj a green light either," said Val Giddiap;director of the group that produced the study. "This ii a flashing yellow light It says proceed with ca~ tion." OT A officials said that the key environ mental concerns associated with introducing artificial life ford into tha environment that the organisms could multiply and spread far beyond their point of application, or interSee RILEASE, E4, Col 1 UMTtD PADS IH1'RMTI(N Advanced Genetic Sciences employee sprays genetically altered bacteria bl tefl lu& year.
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-:::::w::::: n, Q) t:r.2 .... .c: t:r.2 Cl:: I-E-E-co :z:: c.r.l (.) "So :::>~ 0 <::> E-0 f..> c.r.l c;..:) LLJ -(I) t:::::. E->-~ 0 ;;:: t:::::. z::: Q) :::> en e-,. c..=, 0 -"O":l z: 'tf I .,._ 0 II II >, >, >, ,._ .,. i .,. '0 ,._ C "' II C C 11 <1>-.c-e.:::oa ;,-.~-c>>-!!<1>;,9-5 oec _,._!!loc.c,:;<1>cufrll-<1>ill as wf u ~11uo C 11111111:,i-5>< N w o"' ... 111 c111111-c=asc~-CII _,o :::,51111----0 11>~ f.110 .e c::, :5! :a 5 .!fil CII ,:j "'c ; CII C cc jl .g 5 ... ui !le u 8.~ ill 'iii CII -g .c E a !:i E 5 :: ~: u:: gi ;;e E -:c ii C: -::s-uu&>5L.--11 -5&;.-CII C CCII "1:11 <1>"'Ea,-111-c... ..u_. 'OoCII ... -~e 1115!,._ f ii~ ,~ii e-l i ls f~ i-~ i a i jj i i -~ i: ~fl~ s s I t ~; g .... ... :l 8 Ill -8 s :,:, 8 Ill -~ e 8 "' a 5 g ~-c ...: :i ; 8 ... Ill Ill C i< :g ; .s ::, E ... t = c "' fl 0 'ii e C 9 0 0.-, CII -= 8. ~i i, .!!! a oc~ : -a -8 8. -~ ij ,2 -~ 8 gr [.~ -~ < .8 !:i c -5 --~ -~ ~e-. a e ~illl ,:, rJ _g j ;5 : l gi .E .5 e Is: e g r-~ e >< ); CII ii! i .5.,. ,._ U ::l 0. 0.-' ._ CII ill CII u, S 8_..,. Z Ill i:, 00 C u, f tj = ., r) C C Cw ._ w. 111-C11 __ C u, 111 ,( 11 Ill U en -z;j)iil ~i ~,~.ii t;-~ ~! !~-~"' e~ j~li l!~-s S 5 ~; .. fli 2! 1 ~[~} it~~ ~.i!l'Ki!l~ f g ~la8.~J!l.5E DD~ 111:;1~'3 CII !ll g-:S; g:g CII g '-t;: .. z i 2l I ,.,)~ t:~~aE;,ai I e rr~~ Ill g: t O !J:~ ~,:j -~ ~~ii;~ li1ii-1t!:! ;feiil ~!;.!l~1ii!~!li U Ul't!iliii! Jt~f if l!!~ ,Jii~~]s.-~ I_ fl) l'G i:, U c C Ill~ IJ l!J ii a, -5 OC.c O 0 l >, C Ill U f C11 "C .5 6 1 r~!-Ill QC C CII ._ c., $ ti iii)! .... Q i C 0 3 Ill. as l 8. en ~fiei ~-~J;cj 8:: s'ifilJ~j i ~~i~ijti111~ :E ~sJii~;t~i!e t:! !)lilh~ ~tieli !~gi -....._____ ~.~oco.11cn !!aso ... iiloa.;-a.~ 0.;;::E.Sic: ;;::.,,l;Ht..cuc.E cE .5.~.0.800c0.-g -0111 .co.aoJ!O ... > ... 11 w \ti ~, .... ..,. E4 THURSDAY, MAY 5, 1988 ..,.,,...., .... .,.., .... THi t.uRINC1' O'IJ\. Report Boosts Outdoor Biotech Tests RELEASE, Fiom El fere excessively with the ecological balance-are potentially more seri ous with respect to large-scale tests or commercial applications ifld were not the subject of their analysis. But the theme of the report was clear. On the first page was a quotation from Sophocles-"One must learn by doing the thing, for although you think you know it you have no certainty until you try"-and that note was sounded throughout. "Realistic small-scale field tests are likely to be the only way potential risks from commercial-scale uses of genetically engineered organisms can be evaluated," the report stated. Offlcia1s of the biotechnofogy in dustry welcomed the OTA's find ings. Although a wide variety of firms have sought Environmental Protection Agency permission to field-test genetically altered microorganisms designed to do everything from im proving crop production to teplacing chemical pesticides, early efforts to conduct tests faced strong opposition. Last April, after years of legal troubles, Oakland, Calif.-based Ad vanced Genetic Sciences Inc. be came the first U.S. biotech firm to conduct an authorized, outdoor re lease: spraying genetically altered bacteria on a field of strawberry plants in northern California. Two other biotech firms have followed, and a fourth, Hanover, Md.-based Crop Genetics International Corp., is likely to win final approval to test a pesticide designed to protect corn later this month. "This is a real boost," said Richard Godown; president of the Industrial Biotechnology A!IS<>Ciatlon. ''The dis cussion has now moved to what level of regulation is reasonable." The flew debate, environmental and industry sources say, will center on a number of attempts by the EPA to streamline the regulatory proce dure for outdoor release applications. One possibility, rumored in the trade press, is that the EPA would be gin to give biotech firms planning small-scale tests of bioengineered organisms the same exemptions from federal overview that some companies planning tests using con~ntional chemicals are currently given. Handin-hand with that proposal ia another, being forwarded by the EPA, to allow. local environmental review .committees to assume some of the responsi bilities of federal officials in alJl)rOWll genetic test applications. -' I ,G llolh sugeotlono, l;. I bkely to be fought by en ists, many of whom are c:aia& new regulatory framework biotechnolQgy on the feder leveL 11 "There isn't any reaaon to. becom6 complacent about field tests, 11id Jack Doyle, director of the atricul tural resources project at th!! Envf... ronmental Polley Institute in Wash ington. "We've been dealing with fairly simple changes, and fairly small organisms. We shouldn't tJke this as an automatic sipl that everything is okay." .. i -c .m j c,S_, ... :::i
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SCIENCE MAGAZINE WASHINGTON, DC WEEKLY 156,500 HAV 6 1988 Bu~ -l,0~8 HS r t I I i V Field Test Data Inadequate, OTA Says 1 .. -l 'lTY More research must be conducted to supment of Agnculture, and other tederal re-port risk assessment evaluations of outdoor search agencies consider targeted research tests of genetically engineered organisms, initiatives covering interactions between savs the Office of Technology Assessm~gt competing organisms, gene regulation, and ( OI_ A). "To dispel speculation, increasing related issues affecting microorganisms. the general knowledge base about organAlong with this effort there also is a need for isms intended for environmental applicagreater interdisciplinary research among mi tions is paramount," says OTA. Not only crobiologists, geneticists, plant pathologists, will this bolster public confidence, the agenagronomists, ecologists, and evolutionary cv says in its latest report on biotechnolobiologists, savs OT A. gy, .. but additional data also should lead to "Specific data and basic, broad-based in-some relaxation of federal regulations. formation ... to develop capabilities for ge-The findings are part of an overview neric risk assessment and management strat prepared at the request of Congress on the egies are lacking," observes OT A, whii;h use of engineered organisms in agriculture suggests that tederal regulation of the bi,i and for tackling environmental pollution. technology industrv could benefit from ~-OTA 's report examines historical introducter data. "With manv commercial applica tions of new and modified organisms and tions of biotechnology reaching the field test plants as well as recent field trials. stage," the agency comments, "regulators The study should serve as a useful referneed clear risk assessment and risk manage ence for members of Congress and the genment guidelines." era! public trying to make sense of the As more data are gathered regarding vari conflicting statements of social activists and ous classes of organisms, regulation of some industry. The report concludes that: field tests can be relaxed, if not abandoned. With adequate review, the small-scale "It should be possible now, or become field tests that occur in the next several vears possible in the near future to sort planned are not likelv to pose an environmental introductions into broad categories for problem that cannot be controlled. which low, medium, or high levels of review Small field experiments are likely to be are appropriate," says OT A. the only way potential risks from some The current regulatorv mechanism set up proposed commercial uses of genetically enby the Biotechnology Science Coordinating gineered organisms can be evaluated. Committee (BSCC) in June 1986 is inade- There are reasons to be cautious bequate, OT A says. The BSCC, which is part cause significant areas of uncertainty exist, of the O_ffice of Science and Technology especially in the realms of microbial ecology Policy, "lacks the power to impose its deci and population dynamics. sions" upon regulatorv agencies such as the ., In addition, OTA recommends that the Environmental Protection Agencv or the National Science Foundation, the DepartDepartment of Agriculture, the agency Field Testing Engineered Organisms: Genetic and Ecowg,,al. Issues 1s the third of a series titled "~ew Developments m Biotechnologv." Copies of the report iOTA-BA-350) J.re available from the L'.S. Government Pnnting Office. notes. As a result, OTA adds, there are inconsistencies in the regulatory approaches used bv executive branch agencies. MARK CRAWFORD SCIENCE, VOL. i,+O I .,-
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DAILV COHffERCIAL RECORD DALLAS, TX OAILV TUESDAY HAY 10 1988 l little risk seen in moving genetic tests FR By Robert C. Cowen Christian Science Monitor News Seryiee ~2.7.en field tests have already been carried out in 5 countries, including the US. Many more are planned. Tosting involves medical and veterinary trials of vaccines and other treat ments derived through genetic engineering. But the main concern in field tests is with the ecological risks of releasing modified -plants, animals, and especially microbes for agricultural purposes. These organisms are intended t.o be come part of the living community of crops and livestock. If they evolve in un expected ways or escape t.o become part of the wider biological commu"lities be yond the farm, experimenters and regula t.ors want t.o be sure they do not cause significant ecological harm. Altered microbes are being studied for many purposes such as pest control, en hanced nitrogen fixation, and even frost control in the case of the so-called ice minus bacteria that help prevent frost formation when living on plant leaves. The report notes that use of such or ganisms offers many benefits, including replacing chemical pesticides with more benign pest-control bacteria But, the agency emphasizes, the key to getting these benefits is building the base of ecological knowledge on which t.o set up a regulat.ory system in which people : can have confidence. -
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TV CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD LIVINGSTON, NEW JERSEY 07039 ,2011 992-6600 1800) 631-1160 \l:lv .23. 191:)8 5:30-6:00 P~I \1T CBS CBS E\'ening News Dan Rather. anchor: ACCOUNT NUMBER NIELSEN AUDIENCE In Washington. the feder:-11 go\'crnment wrnorrow is expected to ,tpprlwc a \,[aryland company's propm,,tl to test an alrered gene in a cornfield. This liL().297 Y 15 .2-5.7.20 would be only the fourth time an engineered gene has been approvc'd for tt:sting outside a laboratory. lt is 3 technl,lOr)' l'f ):!re:n r,romise .ind frightening pronlems. Dehnr:th Potter reports;. Deborah Potter reporting: These scientists belie\e the\'re m,1king history, but thevre also ra1s111g fears of a te,.:hnologv that i:ould soon -be out of \.'Ontroi. Thev've con;e up \\ ith a wav to \'acl'inate -'-:orn plants ;.igainst a \.'ommon pest bv alkiing a gene that cont~~ins an insecticide:. t--Peter C1rlsl,11 (Crop Genetics Internation,d): .--\nd the rc'sult L)f gc'netic ern:.ineering is a balterium that \\ill ]i'.e in the plant and prudl!i:e ,1 protein aC~\e against caterpillars. Potter: The corn actuallv kills insects that trv to eat it. but bb tesb found that it's harmless to humans. It the process works in the field. it could eliminate the need for toxic pesticides. helping to ,.:le,m up the environment and s,wine: f:mners miliil1ns of dollars :i \'e;1r. Scientists alreadv ha\'e tested l)ther pron;ising tc'chnologies like ,tltereJ h,1-:rc-ria designed to help pbnts resist frost. ..\nJ tht' g.uvc>rnment is 110\\ reb.\ing the' ruks to permit more tidd tests. ...\t le;ist two Jozt'n arp!il.'ations are pending. Val Giddings l Offae of T e'-h1wlogv Assessrnc.'nt ): With the researd1 prngrams th:1t ar,~ pres1::ntly undc->,,::iy ir\ '.'<:i"~ cFffiuilt re, ~-,_,ncc'i, t' A ,1 credihlr. scenario that would redul.'e--produce a problem. an environmental prohlem that would he widespread or difficult to control. Potter: But some critics warn that it mav not be safeto take experiments like this out of the lab. hecause no one knows \\hat could harpen \\hen a biologist's dream is let loose in the en\'ironment. \'1.:ko ,Js;.c"ttcs .He J\ ;1iL1bk in .111, formJt fc,r J JJcri,,J ,,f r,,ur "eeks 1r,1m .,1r ,Lite: t'rct111 ,,ur .1fftl1dtc \ lDl:O .\!ONlTOlZf:'J(j '>FK\ lCl:S OF .-\.\11:KlCA. !'.'-JC !212)73u-2lllll
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~AOtO :LIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM .iU~.(1_ELLE"S 75 EAST NORTHFIELD AVENUE I LIVINGSTON I NEW JERSEY 07039 (201) 992-6600 I (212) 227-5570 I /800) 631-1160 .\Liv -+. 1088 11 :00-11:05 .--\'.\1 '.\,IT CBS News .\like .\fous reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER Theres a ne\V study from the government's Office of Technolo~v Assessment which concludes it probably is OK to conduct small field tests of genetically engineered organisms. The study. according to Representative Claudine Schneidt!r of Rhodt! island. finds littlt! risk to tht! t!nvironmt!nt. Cbudine Schneider: It l!i,es us a c::rntionarv l;!o-ahead. It's not. vou know. zoom ri1,d1t aht!ad; but it-dot!S sav. 'Ht!rt! are ;ome l!Uiudint!s. ask tht!St! 4uestions. Jo tht!se risk-asst!ssmt!.nt analyses. and th~n move ahead. lO,!b.297 Y Maus: Schneider says most of the experiments related to this study will be in agriculture in the nt!xt frw years. 101 Words 8 Clips
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JOURNAL OF COMMERCE NEW YORK, Wt' 0AILY 23.000 APR 29 1988 BVJfJ?E~~s Gene Mapping Researc~ K~.~~ to !.~~~!~.,.H~l WASHINGTON Tbe Office of Medical Institute and other organl. Technology Assessment recently zations. In order to create ar(d estimated that the projected costs maintain resources that can be of all planned gene mapping and used by all, a task force could moii sequencing genome in the United itor all these projects, obtain scien States will he worth $40 million to tific advice, foster communication $50 million the first year, with adand make recommendations to ditional research increasing the Congress. value to $200 million to $250 mil-Tbe task force could be estat,.. lion a year over the nezt three to lished by mutual agreement among five years. agencies or through legislation, and Tbe OTA suggested that an incould be composed of academfo teragency task force would be the scientists, representatives of gov best way to coordinate the many ernment agencies, industrial scien research and technology developtists and other experts, the OTA meat projects aimed at mapping said. and sequencing genes. Tbe suggesOver the last three decades, new tion came during testimony methods of manipulating and anaWednesday before the House ComJyzing DNA have enormously u mittee on Energy and Commerce. panded current understanding of The OT A said the immediate genetics. goal of these projects is not to Genome research is most likely completely understand human geto be conducted by SJnall groups netic information,. but to create and a few specialized centers. rathtools and lay a foundation to underer than at a single facility. Accord stand. human genetics in the 21st ing to the OTA, genome projects century. currently proposed are too Special genome initiatives are small-scale to cause significant unway or planned by the De-shortages of scientific and technipartment of Enerv, National Insti-cal penonne1.
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Research News (~1~----l)'-'.. J.-<.A. !) Geri6fil~il Projects Ready to Go A third major report on the human genome project has just been published as momentum zn research is growing; the time now seems ripe far decisive action THE Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) this week released its report on the Hwnan Genome Project, the principal aim of which was to map and sequence the entire complement of hwnan genetic material. The report is the third major publication by governmental and nongovernmental agencies on the topic, the first being that by the Deparanent of Ener gy (DOE) last April and the second by the National Research Council (NRC) in February. The OTA's document brings a further development in the maturation of discus sions about the enterprise: specifically, in further broadening the goals, to encompass advances in genetic analysis in general, not just focusing on the hwnan genome. In addition. the new report adds a de gree of sophistication in Washington ways absent from previous publications, so that it is able to outline various options of how the, project might be ad.ministered. Of the several possibilities available, the one most fa. vored is an interagency task force that would direct and coordinate activities in the key agencies involved, namely the National In stitutes of Health (NIH) and DOE. The chief advantage of this arrangement, notes the report., "is that it builds on existing research programs and planning efforts in different agencies and docs not require a single lead agency." Congressional interest in the genome pro ject has been swelling of late. For instance, earlier this month the Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources reported out a bill that would establish a National Biotech nology Policy Board and Advisory Panel. The Senate Energy Committee is likely soon to give approval to a similar bill. However, for reasons of intcrcommittcc politics, not lack of interest, prospects for these bills in the House arc uncertain. Meanwhile, the House Committee on Energy and Commerce held hearings this week which addressed "the scientific and technical needs of the genome project, its funding and coordination, and ethical and social issues." In addition, the hearings marked the formal release of the OT A report. "We are ready to make some decisive moves," notes OT A's Robert CookDeegan. The genome project began life almost 3 6o2 years ago, the brainchild of Charles DcLisi, director of the DOE's Office of Health and Environmental Research. Initially conceived of as a goal-directed endeavor aimed ulti mately at charting the complete sequence of the 3 billion nucleotides in the hwnan ge nome, the project excited both enthusiasm and fear among biologists. Enthusiasm, be cause it seemed to promise access to the very basis of Homo saptms-thc "holy grail of biology," as Harvard's Walter Gilbert once put it. And fear, because such a massive project seemed to threaten to divert man power and financial resources from other areas of biology. Three areas of concern developed, and were aired at seemingly countless public and private gatherings. First, what should the scope of the enterprise be? Second, how should a project of this scale-Big Sciencebe organized? And third, how would it be financed? As mentioned earlier, the scope of the project has been gradually broadening as technical reality and practical utility dawned. Various approaches to genetic and physical mapping have been encompassed, and the drive for a complete sequence tempered. Most significant, Homo sapims is no longer the only experimental subject in the project: other organisms arc now included too. This shift of emphasis already was evident in the NRC document and is fully developed in the latest report. As the OT A report makes dear, "There is no single human genome project, but instead many projects.'' Maynard Olson of Washington Cniversity regards this altered perception as crucial. "If we could analyze the hwnan genome bv the dose of the century, the real significance would not so much be in the database irselt: but in the capability of doing it,., he savs. "This would have a profound impct on .tll of biology." By including other organisms 111 the ge nomc projects, the genetic data from Homo sapims is placed in wider biolo!cm:.tl conrext. To some, this is a more scic:nntic. Bur to others it robs the project of its most 1~11:,le and politically attractive appc:.i.l. .1 pomc rhJc exercised members at a recent Ad Ho.: .-\d\ 1 sory Committee on Complex Genomes, convened by NIH. "The human di:mc::nc 1s .1 natural centerpiece to the project," ut-sc:r1c:s Olson, "but, alone, it stands ver1 poorh." The second area of concern, that of urga nization, has also undergone consu.krable evolution, not least because the pro1c:ct 1s rapidly moving to de facto unplcmc:nmion. Recognizing that an enterprise of this great scope would require extensive coordm.1c1on. some proponenrs urged that it should l:,c: the Maynard Olson --------"If we could ,inai_v::,e rlu human genome b_v the close of the centurv, the real significance R'ouid not so much be in the database itself, b11t m the capabiliry ~(doin_a zt. This R'ould have a profound impaa on ail of bioiog_v." SCIENCE, VOL. 240
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property of the DOE, which is well experi enced m managing large projects .Moreover, the enterprise had been conceived in that agency, and several projects were alreadv u:1derway. Others considered that NIH would be more appropriate, mainlv because human genetics fits narurallv within the agencv's mandate, but also because peer review was felt to be better developed there. Perhaps not surprisingly, in its report last year th_e DOE concluded that the agency would mdeed be well suited to running the ~roject. The NRC report agreed that a smgle agency should take the lead, but it was specific about neither which agencv nor exactly how the system would operat~. The OTA report recognizes that Congress could ~esign~te a single lead agency and notes that NIH 1s the natural choice for lead agency." Its mandate and extensive involvement in genetics research are cited in support of such a conclusion. Although there would be clear advantages in the single lead agency arrangemen; "accountability through clear authoritV'' there are disadvantages too. Not leas't of these is that "researchers supported by DOE, NSF, and other organizations have important contributions to make," notes the report, "and some projects fall outside the mainstream of research supported by NIH" The OT A report repeatedly emphasizes the pluralistic nature of the research and its products, which is cogent argument for a broadly organized approach: namelv, an inceragency task force. "This type of :m-ange ment would certainlv be the most flexible structure," says Cook-Deegan. It also recog ruzes that several different agencies are al ready actively involved in different aspects of the work. The chief disadvantage, however, is that "no one agency is accountable for the conduct of the genome projects." Such a task force could be constituted like an interag_e1_1cy _committee, with principals from parnc1panng agencies, notes the report. In addition, it would include scientists and, ~ibly, ethicists. Such a group is wntten mto the provisions of the Biotech nology Bill that recently went through the Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources. NIH might already be a step ahead in this direction, as a result of the recent meeting of its ad hoc committee. The committee considered and unani mously approved a proposal, drafted bv NIH director James Wyngaarden, that Office of Human Genome Research be established within the director's office. The office will have close links with DOE and other agencies and, notes CookDeegan, could provide the focus for establishing a broadly based committee of the sort envisaged in the OT A report. 29 APRIL 1988 Although the structure implied by the mteragency task force concept builds on established activities, and recognizes the pluralism of genome research, it leaves unat tended some of the worries alreadv expressed. Specifically, as Leroy Hood ~f the California Institute of Technology notes: "There is still a strong concern about how DOE spends its funds. The national labs have still not got the required skills in molecular biology, and the issue of peer review has not been settled to the satisfaction of many people." DOE recently made a commitment to submit all such research to peer review, both intramural as well as extramural. Nevertheless, there is still some skepticism about how well this will work. The third area of concern is that of fund ing. A frequently expressed sentiment is that, important though the genome project is, it should not bleed other areas of biology in sustaining itself. In fact, this was often used as an argument for having DOE, not NIH, run the projects. New money, this was what was required. "The difference between old monev and new money is not meaningful in th~ political context," observes CookDeegan. "These projects will be funded as line items in the budget year by year, so long as Congress is persuaded they are valuable. You can't insulate budgets into the future, no matter which agency they are in." Researchers have seen biomedical research funds diverted into the AIDS effort, and the same thing is probably inevitable with the genome pro jects. Previous estimates on the overall cost of the genome project have varied from S3 billion co several hundred million, depend ing on assumptions about advances in tech nology. The OTA report gives estimates for the first 5 years, which begins at S47 million for the first year and rises steadily co $228 million for year five. Unlike the NRC panel, which projected costs over 15 years, the OTA group argued that unceminties be yond 5 years were just too great to extrapo late further. The figure of $47 million is, incidentallv, very dose to independent, approved budg~ requests by NIH ($28 million) and DOE ($18.5 million). Both agencies are therefore clearly pushing ahead. One difference is that the prime mover behind the project at DOE, DeLisi, has recently left the agency and is yet to be replaced. Meanwhile at NIH the estab lishment of the Office of Human Genome Research gives that agency a sigrtiiicant boost. No name has vet surfaced as head of the office, but the choice will be crucial if ~H is co establish itself as the de facto if not actual lead agency. ROGER. LEWIN
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MATURE LONOON, Ell WEEKLY J0,000 APR 28 1988 BV!!!JEU.l:'S -4698 CI ~-A~T~l-R_E_,_o_L_._;_3: ___ '8_A_P_R_1_L_1_o~ _____________ NEWS-------Another report smiles on human genome sequencing project Washington t,, ;L f ;J.y difficult ethical and social problems. For CoNGREsss own research agent .. _,Jhe example. genetic mapping will undoubtOffice of Technology Assessment (OTA). edly provide more effective diagnostic __ last week produced at a congressional tools for the detection of disease, but hearing a reflective report on the project diagnostics seems inevitably to precede to map the human genome. While the development of effective therapies. applauding the project. the report differs Eugenic issues will also need attention as a from many other on the topic in exploring better picture of genomic organization hitherto neglected ramifications of the emerges. project. The lack of progress in resolving these Although the OTA effort began life as issues has prompted biotechnology critic the human genome project', the report Jeremy Rifkin to form a coalition pushing makes it quite clear that other than human for more congressional attention to the species will ultimately play a role in undersocial ramifications of genome projects. standing the genetic information gleaned Rifkin's coalition. drawn from a wide from mapping projects. spectrum including ethics specialists. OTA also seeks to defuse the contenlabour leaders, members of women's tious notion that a genome project would health organizations. insurance watchdog be solely concerned with constructing a groups and disabled rights groups. intends complete sequence of the 3,000 million to work for a human genome policy board nucleotide base pairs that make up the to advise Congress on the implications of human genome. Although this may be an genome research. ultimate goal. the OT A report points out Congress has already taken up this issue that physical maps. genetic linkage maps. ( see below). but so farnot especially effec clone repositories and genetic databases lively. Rifkin says he has no objection to will all become available as a result of the spending money on mapping and sequen project. and will have immediate utility cing efforts. so long as public concerns for the biological sciences. about the project are heard. The report also says that genome proLeRov Walters, direcJ:M of the centre jects are not in the same category as big for bioeihics at the Keiinedy Institute of science projects such as the Manhattan Ethics and chairman of the OTA advisory Project or the Apollo programme to land panel on mapping the human genome. a man on the Moon. The component parts agrees that scholarly ethical research must of genome projects do not require the proceed in tandem with biological work. same scale of spending, and the technical Otherwise. Walters says, ethical problems goals are not nearly so sharply focused. will be upon us before we have decided Congress will probably find the section how we want to cope with them. in the report on organization the most Joseph Palca useful. In unusually forthright terms. the In typical bureaucratic style, Congres report says that the appointment of a sional interest in the mapping and sequen single lead agency to run the project cing of the human genome has spawned would be fraught with problems. OT A proposals to create panels and review warns that the process of selecting a lead boards to evaluate and manage the pro agency "would delay progress and dimi, ject. Legislation to focus the organization nish overall funding". of the project and direct its role in Instead, OTA seems to lean towards an enhancing national competitiveness' interagency task force to coordinate the has been entered in both houses of Con various efforts of the National Institutes of gress. But what of ethical issues? Health. the Department of Energy and To fill the gap. plans have been laid in the National Science Foundation, each of Congress to resuscitate a Biomedical which would support some component of Ethics Board originally set up in l 985 to the project. In this respect, OTA differs wrangle with issues such as fetal research from the National Research Council's and genetic screening. The board of six report on the human genome project. Senators and six Congressmen has been which advocated a single lead agency (see languishing for the past two and a half Nature 331,467;1988). years, divided over the composition of its The report also raises some difficult advisory committee and its stance on the issues relating to patents. copyrights and issue of abortion. The selection of com technology transfer that will arise as primittee members was completed three vate companies and foreign governments weeks ago. join federally supported research laboraWhether the board finally will get off to tories in working on the project. a start by grappling with the ethical quesThe report also says that there will be tions posed by the human genome proiect '\4apping our Genn: Th, Geno~ ~fttts: How Big, How remains to be seen. [,' F.ut.' Office of Technology Assev.mcnt. Washington DC. 1988. Carol E zell ....
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HEIJ SCIEHTIST LONDON E~ ~EEKLY 77,200 I b?. 9., fJS should avoid grand plan for gene mapping f GENE n1appers iri the US offered a new from yeasts to humans. that mapping will engender discrimination plan this week to keep efforts to map The OT A proposes in its report, and even eugenics unless the public the human genome from sinking under Mapping Our Genes, that this figure should intervenes. their own weight. "There will be no single rise to about $200 million a year by the fifth The OT A seeks to cool the debate by event such as the Moon landing or the year of a concerted effort. The figure is calling for a continuation of small-scale space shuttle launching", wrote a commitmodest compared with the billions of projects aimed at honing the tools for tee of scientists at the Office of Technology dollars needed for full-scale sequencing of mapping and, eventually, sequencing Assessment (W Nor will there be any every piece of the genome. genomes, human or otherwise. new multi-bi on dollar facility for countAcrimonious debate has in the past often A similar study from the US National ing out the chemical bases of genes like so dogged efforts to proceed with genetic Research Council (New Scientist, 25 many grains of sand. mapping, the OT A says. Some scientists February, p 30) emphasised the same .....::-Instead, says the OT A, which advises have wanted to start immediately on the approach. Scientists who advised the Congress on how to spend its money, a task huge task of sequencing every chemical NRC have warned against a huge project force of experts from government, indusbase in the human genome. Others, now run by civil servants in Washington that try. academia and the public should the majority, want far more leisurely could suck scarce funds away from other organise what is already being done. mapping of significant parts. biological research. Sequencing might Government laboratories and the Howard Bureaucrats have debated who should begin, said the NRC's report, when the cost Hughes Medical Institute, a private centre, run the government's efforts. And camcan be cut tenfold to about 20 cents per are spending about $40 million trying to paigners, such as the author Jeremy Rifkin, base (there are about six billion bases in a I map the genomes of various organisms, have stoked the controversy with claims human). o ---------I ,.. C'1 a) ,.. ,~ C ,,, ,,, :z: n ::io:,,, = ~-= ,,, Ii :a: -< 1-1 0 r, ,c, ::> r-UI 0 :z: 0 -< ,,, 0 ::00: 0
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CHEMICAL t ENGINEERING HEYS WASHINGTON, OC WEEKL V 13:S, 000 APR 111988 Bumf6U.1rS--l372 r NL Study finds defense basic research falling behind The Departmen~J~J~se science billion in 1964, $1.0 billion in 1984, and technology program is a com-and $0.9 billion in 1988. Funding plex and sometimes bewildering for exploratory development (6.2) array of 160 program elements fell dramatically from a high of $4.6 encompassing thousands of individ-billion in 1964 to about $2.5 billion ual projects. The Pentagon views in 1984 and to $2.0 billion in 1988. the program as a crucial source of Funding for advanced development future technology. Yet the program's (6.3A) rcise from $0.9 billion in 1964 ,~-_ success is often difficult to judge, to $1.7 billion in 1984 and then fell and its funding has remained esto $1.5 billion in 1988. sentially constant over the past This shifting pattern, with an quarter of a century, despite the de-emphasis on the downward trend, fense buildup during the Carter and may well repeat itself. As OTA notes, Reagan administrations. funding for technology base pro-Those two unsettling conclusions grams is particularly vulnerable come from the Office of Technology during times of tight budgets, such Assessment's first report from an as now. The contribution of today's ongoing study of the U.S. defense research programs to future militechnology base. The object of the tary products and technologies "is report, according to OT A, is to lay not obvious, cannot be quantified, out the significant technology-based and is extremely difficult to render problems now facing the nation and in explicit terms," OT A says. It is, discuss the issues Congress will however, comparatively easy to confront in dealing with them. argue that a particular weapons Suggested solutions will be ad-system would enhance national dressed in later reports. security. Thus, technology base pro-One of those problems is funding grams are particularly vulnerable to of the science and technology pro-"raiding" to support procurement grams. This "issue has generated a programs or programs in the later great deal of confusion even among stages of development. persons generally knowledgeable in Congress, OTA says, will have to defense matters," OTA says. It adds determine what it thinks are the that in its discussions it "found that proper levels of funding for the many persons mistakenly believe technology base programs. This may that funding for basic research was entail acting as an advocate for substantially increased during the technology base funding when DOD Carter-Reagan defense buildup beseeks to reduce it. The optimal level cause they knew that funding for of funding is difficult, if not imposresearch, development, testing, and sible, to gauge accurately. However, evaluation had increased almost OTA believes that funding that fluc100%." tuates widely from year to year is By DOD's definition the science inefficient and disruptive. OTA and technology program encom-concludes that Congress faces the passes three budget categories: 6.1 very difficult decision of whether it for basic research, 6.2 for exploratory should be actively involved in the development, and 6.3A for advanced selection of technology base protechnology development. (For its grams and the determination of study OTA calls the three categories specific funding levels, or whether\ technology base programs.) Funding it should give DOD managers wide for all three categories, excluding latitude to construct programs withthe Strategic Defense Initiative in agreed overall funding levels. (SDI), has either been relatively staCopies of the OTA report, "The ble or down over the past 25 years. Defense Technology Base: Intro-For example, constant-dollar fund-duction & Overview," are available ing for basic research has been rela-from the U.S. Government Printing tively stable over the past 25 years Office, Superintendant of Docuand has not benefited substantially ments, Washington, D.C. 20402. The from recent increases in defens~ stock number is 052-003-01099-2, spending. In constant 1988 dollars, and the price is $5.00. category 6.1 funding totaled $1.2 f anice Long, Washington --------
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THE SUN BALTIMORE, MD. (MORNING) 0. 221,941 SAT. 363,710 S. APR 14 l 988 f I 1Bottom. Line on Infant Deaths -: x,, \r1 ') iv\'<\'~ Despite ifiedica.Iadvanc~ and a broader awareness that too many American babies die before reaching age 1. little progress is being made. A study by the Office of Technology Assessment warns that Improvements in the nation's infant mortality rate during the 1970s slowed in the 1"'980s to the point where infant deaths now must oe'considered a wmajor health concern." ~.;_:The OTA reported that 40,000 American ba bies die before their first birthdays each year t~.6 out of every 1,000, a full 1 percent of all births in this country. In impoverished urban nr)ghborhoods, as many as 25 to 30 babies die for e'!t:ry 1,000 born a rate competitive with Third World nations. J Part of the reason for the slowed improvement rate In U.S. Infant deaths Is an Increase during the l~~t decade In the number of babies weighing less than 2 pounds at birth. Advances In obstetrical management account for some of these. but a good deal more can be traced to the 300,000 women ij~h year who get little or no prenatal care during t}:leir pregnancies. Their babies alone account for two-thirds of all Infant deaths. The report notes that throughout the 1980s federal aid for health programs for the poor has been cut while the number of women and Infants li~~g In poverty has risen from 18 percent of I -------- r'"''TOR!AJ, the population in 1980 to 24 percent-now. It Is no coincidence that progress in lowering Infant death rates has slowed during these years. The OT A reaches the obvious conclusion: all women should get adequate prenatal care and their infants should receive quality medical attention. To accomplish this, the report recommends that Congress require all states to offer Medicaid coverage to poor, pregnant women: that more fed erally subsidized clinics and health programs be established: that Medicaid fees be boosted, and payment procedures be streamlined to encourage doctors to treat poor people. The price tag on these recommendations may be high, but these are more than tax-and-spend proposals designed to ease liberal guilt. There is a sound utilitarian argument for moving ahead. The average underweight Infant spends roughly 20 days in intensive care. at a cost of as much as $1,000 per day. At least 20 percent of low birth weight babies must be rehospitalized within the first year of life and frequently need costly surgery and medical care. Even when society neglects them, poor people cost taxpayers a bundle. We should be spending less on Medicaid and special-education programs by spending more on prenatal and pediatric care. That ought to win favo~ .. with bottom-line politicians of both earttes, ...
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(.;Nl\;A\:i!U SUN-TIMES CKICAGO, ILL O. 812,688 SAT. 421).501 SUN. 625,935 APR 25 1988 Bue,_~ r Illinois must cut its infant __ mortality rate\ ... )C\.~ ., By Richard J-. Durbin who accept low-income patients. Although the average cost of a de livery in Illinois is $1,200, the stateset reimbursement rate is only $44 7 (the national average is $475). T he American infant mortality rate has become one of the highest of any advanced na tion on Earth. Skyrocketing medical malpractice insurance rates, which are pushing many doctors out of obstetrics. A growing number of uninsured parents who cannot afford prenatal care. Over half a million American We are near the bottom of the class when it comes to keeping our newborns alive. This year, about 40,000 babies will die in America before they reach their first birth day, a mortality rate of almost 11 deaths per 1,000 live births-roughly 1 percent of all births. PERSONAL VIEW That puts us 19th in the world, behind such nations as Spain and women go through childbirth each Singapore. year without health insurance, addThese findings come from a reing $2 billion to hospital losses. cent study by the Ch)ldren's De-What can be done? fense Fund. They are supported by Long-range solutions are to exa separate report issued by the pand health insurance for the poor congressional Office of Techn~y and resolve the medical malprac. Assessment_ [Gur children reiilly tice crisis. A more immediate an \are our future, then these reports swer is to raise the state reimburse-nre warning signs of a genuine merit rate. for Medicaid patients, emergency. ending the disincentive for doctors Illinois has earned its own medal to treat low-income patients. This of shame: It ranked 41st in infant should draw support from fiscal mortality out of the 50 states, with conservatives, since preventive a 1985 death rate of 11.7 per 1,000 health care is so cost-effective and live births. In 1986, that rate inthe expense of public care for lowcreased to 12.1, according to the birthweight infants is so highstate Department of Public Health, every $1 spent on prenatal care the highest of any Northern state. saves $3.38 in later hospital cost5. The statistics also reveal stark But the most simple step is to let racial differences. In Illinois, black low-income women take advantage infant5 die at twice the national of existing programs designed to average and close to three times the help them. As our hearing found, rate of white babies. Illinois ranks many mothers-to-be simply don't among the five worst stat.es in know that help is available or how terms of over-all black infant morto get it. tality and low-birthweight babies. This is something we can act on Why is this happening? quickly. In my part of central IlliBecause a growing number of nois, we have targeted a seven-counwomen-especially low-income ty region with series of radio, TV women-cannot afford to obtain and newsletters that promote a tollthe medical attention they need free maternity hotline operated by before their babies are born. For the state health department. The many mothers, the first time they number (1-800-545-2200) helps see a doctor is in the hospital women find affordable prenatal care emergency room during labor. The in their local communities. result often is premature, impaired So far, state officials report a or low-birthweight babies who are "very respectable" increase in caJls far more likely to have major from the region. Our next goal is to health problems or die than norinvolve other members of the IIJimal-weight infants. nois congressional delegation and In Illinois, CDF found that less the news media to mount a similar than half of all pregnant black initiative across the state. women received adequate prenatal While this may seem like a simple care in 1985, compared to 73 perstep, it is a crucial one. Ignorance is cent of white women. as much a problem as money, and There are several factors behind can be found even while the policy this problem. The U.S. House Sebattles drag on. To improve the lect Committee on Children, Youth survival rate of babies in Illinois, we and Families, which held hearings need to get out the word about at my request in Springfield and prenatal care to those who so desChicago last Oct.ober.., identified perately need to hear it. I these: ~:.1,rnrealis~cally.~ Me~d .;-U.$, R~p. !Jic.ha. rd,J.., Drin 1 cr111!UJllrsememiat:e,paid to doctorlt'.--ff.Qtlf -8pring/_ield.,,, .. : ,. :: ~-__ ... ::. \-,r.n~t::\ .-1r.:;..-~ -...iat..."" ~-~: .... ". ,..,,.,... -..... --~ .....
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i.. I Repoi't: What We Could Do To Make Children Healthier r: ... from page one. child care in terms of improved health outcomes. Thus, says the agency, one option is to pay higher rates but limit visits to those required for immuniza tions, the element of well child care I NATIOlt'S HEALTII WASHIN8TON, DC lO-TDIESIYEAR 2',000 APR 11988 Bu~J?.EU.rS !.~ _____________ _;.; .. hospitalizations, rehospitalizations, and Jong-term care costs. Also, some indeterminate number of infants' lives would be saved, the report says. In connection to the report, Rep. which has been proved very effective. Conccn:es 8 Is Told. Child Restraints in Motor Vehicles: The federal government 11X Henry Waxman (D-CA) and Sen. Bill Bradley (D-NJ} introduced bills to ex pand Medicaid to make coverage for pregnant women and children and women mandatory. through its highway funding, could U_S Could Do Much More encourage states which have less stringent child restraints laws to To Make Children Healthier tighten those standards. ~-:) "i? y nr PAGE In examination of other strategies OTA said: General Medicaid Expan sions: Research shows, says OTA. "For poor children, the availability of adequate health insurance makes a big difference in whether they get care they need .... And yet, as ofl986, less than half of children under 13 living in poverty were covered by Medicaid. In addition, children under Medicaid are more likely to receive care at a hospi tal or public clinic than a private doctor's office, because oflow fees paid to physicians through Medicaid. To help remedy the situation Congress could require that all children under nine in poverty be covered by Medicaid; that states increase Medicaid payments to physicians; or that Con gress increase subsidies to providers such as community health centers, maternal and child health projects, and other programs administered by state and local governments. School-based clinics: Although it is too early to know whether school based clinics help prevent adolescent pregnancies, the evidence looks good, and Congress could consider expand ing Medicaid and other funding for the clinics, says OTA Newborn screening: Screening of newborns for congenital diseases could be better coordinated to insure accuracy and universal coverage and it could be expanded to screen for dis eases not commonly tested now, says the agency. Federal grants could en courage states to develop coordinated programs and research could be funded to determine the effectiveness of various newborn tests. Home Visitor Programa f~ Prevention of Maltreatment: AIThe US could be doing much more though interest in preventing child to improve the health of its children abuse has exploded in the last two through cost-effective prevention decades, there has been very little rig-strategies: the Office of Technology orous evaluation of what kind of interAssessment (OTA) has told Congress. ventions--work. Some studies have '-
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..:..:.:::-.... ,At.:;,,:, ..,_ ;,'t ... ,t'-". -~ -:,, -~-DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM April U. 1%K .5:00-LJ:OO AM !\IT National Public Radio l\forning Edition Bob Edwards reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER ~~'".,,. ........ -,-. --.,,,<1~~-... ._. ----:.,-. ~,::"":'!' "i>1'~~-;-,,~-:r Else\\here on Capitol Hill. congressional committees hope to agree on a trade hill lw the end of the \\'eek. Jr then would c:o to the full C()nc:ress for a vote. But the negotiators are struggling. umler a threatened p;esidential veto if certain provisions are not removi:d. One such amendment would require companies with more than a hundred employees to notit\ workers sixty days in ad\:1nce of a pbnt closing or :1 rn:-issi\e layoff. Right nmY. ad\ance notice is voluntary. NPR's Barbara Mankll reports on this controversv. Barhara ~fantell reporting: (The e:-.:ample of a Whirlpool plant in St. Paul \\hich g.;1\ e :1 year's notice before closing is given as ho\\' such notice c:111 he \erv beneficial.) !'vLrnrell: ...\d\'ance warning coupled with a good assistance program nwam J11()fe than just shortening the time that \\Orkers find themsel, es het\\een jobs. according to Julie Fox Gou rte. Gou rte works for the Office of T eL'hnolnc:v .-l..ssessnwnr. a research division of Congress. which analyzed assistance programs. Julie Fox Gourte: People that parti1..ipate in reemployment programs ,,ill typically get hetrer jobs than people \\ho dont participak. In other words. theyu be able to get better \\ages at--on rheir Ile'\\ jub. >iL,\\. thar doesn't mean they'll get better wag.es than their old job. Thcyu just get better \\ages than the people didn"t participate in the program. \bntell: Gourte sa\s earl\ contact with \\L)rkers is essenti,il in getting their participation in job ~earch workshops. She cites a Philadelphia stud). Gourte: When joh search \\orkshops are gi,en hefore l,1yoffs. se\enty to eighty pen:ent of the workers \\ ill participate than if you \\ait until after the layoffs. the workers ha,e actually lost their jobs. The partilipation rate drops off to less than twenty percent.
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~4!13.-6-.r.--:-:._l -_~-:::!~:; ".f.J". ~. -=-<~-.-: ... :;:..,: .. ;-;, "" ,t Ji~.-\ i.._.-' ~~.. I ',.-, _, ---(Details of the legislation are given. and local officials \\arn that companies \\on't give notification unless forced. A srudy on the low rate of company notification of lavoffs and closures is cited. A USX official and other business representatives say compulsory notifo.:ation guidelines are too strict.) Mantell: If you add up all the costs. Daymurh contends that firms \\ ould react to a mandatorv advance notice law lw hirinl! fe\\er workers during an economic expansion bec,iuse it would be more expensive to get rid t'f them-during an economic contraction. and that leads Daymuth to the dramatic condusion that if a mandatory advance notice law had b-7en in place in the United States since 1CJ82. there would have been four hundred and si_xty thousand fe,,er jobs by the end of 1986. The problem is that this kind of cost analysis for a law that dosent yet exist is very difficult to do: in fact. the General .-.\ccounting Office disputes Daymurh's conclusions and criticizes his assumptions and methodolo~v. Julie Fox Gourte from the Office of Technolo~ Assessment sa\'S her office tried to get around the problem by going to C1naLL. where advance notice laws do exist. Gourte: \Ve reallv. real!\ tried tL, find evidence of costs in Canad:1. then we just didn't find th,it there had been a lot of resistance Or :1 lot of L'LJSIS. And the other thing you have to bear in miml is that a lot of the companies that we talked to in Canada were affiliates of U.S. parents. now. so they \\ere American companies operating in Canada and doing very different things on both sides of the border. saying. for example. in the United States. Oh. you can't do it. it's too costly. it's. you know. it's not proper to mandate such things. it's the heavy hand of government." and complying with relati\ely little problem--in fact. no problem that \\e could find. in Canada. l\lanteU: Gourte savs that doesnt mean that costs don't e\ist. Her ottice just couldn't find them. And it's not clear that Canada"s experience \\"OU!d parallel the U.S. (The future of the debate owr the bill i~ considered.) (,56 Words 55 Clips
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~"lcwsd~1 ,.'Ii} '.1 \~O. _; ;,., ,1. 1 ilJIEREU.E'S I NATION Effect of AIDS Effort 'Unknown' I 1','_ ,., ~)/ By Laurie Garrett their high-risk behaviors. Indeed, the The federal government is spending report said no one knows exactly what tens of millions of dollars on AIDS educonstitutes high-risk behavior for he ca tional efforts without knowing terosexuals or how many Americans whether any of the campaigns are may be participating in such activities. working, according to a new study by There are no clear American exam the Office of Technology Assessment, a pies of a group of people at high risk for support arm of Congress. AIDS changing their behavior because The report said that while state and lf a specific educational campaign. For federal agencies disseminated informaexample, it i3 impossible to tell whether tion quickly at the outset of the AIDS heroin addicts were steered away from epidemic out of a sense of urgency, they using the drug because of a government didn't create ways of evaluating how pamphlet, information from the mass the public was receiving or using that media, the AIDS-death of a friend or information. any of a number of other factors. And while Americans have been del- So many federal and state agencies uged with messages about acquired im-are involved in A.IDS education that mune deficiency syndrome since the there is massive duplication and intera early-1980s, Office of Technology Asgency contradiction. sessment report author Jane Sisk said, -;-. "It is astonishing the extent to which 1 we do not know what works and what 1 foes not work in terms of actually af. 'ecting people's behaviors. Sisk testiied yesterday before the Senate Gov-irnmental Affairs Committee. According to Dr. Leonard Weiss, staff lirector of the Senate Governmental Af 'airs Committee, the federal governnent will spend more than $305 million .his year on AIDS education, with that rum scheduled to double in the coming rear. "The key problem here," Weiss says, 'is determining if that money has been veil spent. The committee feels that here have to be gystems built into edu ation programs that allow us to evalulte their success.'' Few AIDS campaigns have been eval1ated to determine whether people .-ere actually moved to change the be ,aviors that put them at risk for expo ure to the HIV virus. In addition, the eport found that: It is difficult targeting heterosex als who may be at risk for AIDS be ause no reliable information exists on --, "One thing is clear, that people in the federal government do not seem to know exactly what is going on, and there has not been a systematic approach to funding AIDS education or coordinating ef forts between government agencies," the report said. Nearly all federal AIDS education ef forts are coordinated through the Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta. Fred Kroger, acting director of that ef fort, agreed with the bulk of the new report, saying that it is difficult to figure out how to build in evaluation mechanisms, given the confidential nature of most AIDS counseling efforts. For example, the surgeon general re cently sent a mailer on A.IDS to 107 million households at a cost of about $17 million. Kroger says there is no way for the government to know what sort of reception it got. Citing the British experience, the new report said there is good reason to be concerned about how the public ab sorbs information from mass mailings and government advertising campaigns. In 1986, the British government conducted a massive and, according to critics, alarming ad campaign. Initially, it appeared to have had the desired impact. But last year, British government studies revealed there were no changes in condom use patterns as a result of the campaign, and there may actually have been a backlash from some who felt the government was crying wolf. ,... ., z g ... ,. r-:z: < :z: ,. ., "' 0 ., "" "' :,: a:, .... ... ,0 2> :z :z 2> ;,c "' 0 ;,c
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TV CLIPS DATE TIME STATION LOCATION PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD LIVINGSTON NEW JERSEY 07039 1201 I 992-6600 1800) 631-1160 June 8. 1%8 6:\l0-7:00 P'.\l \VCSA-TV(CBS) Ch:rnnel ;--.;ine Washine:ton Eyewitness News '.\Iaureen Bunyan. co-anchor: ACCOUNT NUMBER 10 029"7 Y NIELSEN AUDIENCE 32S.Ollll With no cure tor AIDS and no \'accine to prevent the fatal disease, public health officials sav thev are left onlv with educ:nion as their barrier to the ,pread of ).JDS. ~O\\: the q1-1esriot{ j., bc"int,'. ,1!--ked. i:, education ::lL'tually changing the way people at risk for AlDS behave: Don Torrance reports. Don Torrance reporting: The federal AIDS booklets are out and phone calls to the AIDS hotlines are up. AIDS public service announcements are getting more air time. Efforts are heing made to reach minority communities hit disrroportionately hard hy the eidemic--communities L\11led difficult to read1. But the misconception:, ;1bout AIDS ersist. First C nidentified Speaker: now hear you can get it from toilet seats. Second UniJentified Speaker: I just think that it's something that's not going to happen to me. Jane Sisk (OTA): A persistent misconception is that one can become infected by donating blood. Only about twenty-five percent of people now know that donating blood can definitely not tr:rnsmit the \irus. Torrance: A Senate committee was told todav theres no wav of telline: if the government's number one weapon against AIDS is hitting the mark. ( On screen: Dirksen Sen. Off. B!d~.) The pr0hlem, says the Go,ernment Accounting Otfo:e. is that there is no rc:liable w:w to measure the effectiveness of the education campaign. Eleanor Chelimsk.y (GAO): Although we believe the people in the tield are pursuing the right goals and using reasonable methods to achieve them. still. we don t know \\ hether the programs work. Torrance: An Otfice of Technology Assessment report out today says the Centers tor Disease Control don't ha\e the staff to manage their AlDS c:ducation acti\ itic:s and savs states don't have the inform:~tion on levels of AIDS knowledge in their towns to give the: CDC proper guidance. One witness, singer and health activist. Dionne \\'arnii:k, savs education isn't only the governn;ent"s responsibility. Dionne Warwick: I would specifically like to see more gO\ ernment and private-sc:ctor partners.hips. and funding for AIDS education and prevention \dL'll c':.J.:tt.:, :1r.: d\:11Libk in :in, ti1rm:1t r,,r :.J p.:r:LIU .. r fLlllf \\c'L'K> frum :m d:1tL' tr,,m ,1ur ,dlil1,llL' \IDEO ~!0;\/ITORfNG SERVICES OF _-\..\!FRIC.~. INC (212)736-2010
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HEIISMEEK NEW VORK, NV WEEKLY 4,143,252 APR ll 1999 Bug~ -, <> l' I r T 'r JUSTICE Who Will Pay the AIDS Bill? Not the insurance companies, if they can help it C.)._'f 7 V B efore the Jreat Republic Life Insurance Co. would renew its health policy for David Hurlbert, a gay San FranciBco business consultant, the firm insisted that he an swer a few extra questions. Among them: in the past six months, had he su1fered from a "sexually transmitted disease" or "immune disorder?" Salesmen had been told by the com pany to put these questions only to "single males without dependents ... in occupations that do not require physical ex ertion," including waiters, dec orators, florists and people in the fashion business. Hurlbert refused to answer and together with the National Gay Rights Advocates tNGRAJ sued Great Republic for $10 million on the ground that it was discriminating against gay men. A state court ruled that an insurer could be held liable for bias based on sexual orienta tion, and the case will resume this month. Great Republic's lawyer, John Chakmak, says the company "was not discrimi nating against gays. It was attempting to discriminate against the disease." To NGRA lawyer I Guardian Life Insurance Co. decided to Benjamin H. Schatz, that is a distinction stop covering hairdressers. Last month in withoutadifference. "Insurers must not be Washington Mauro A. Montoya Jr., a law allowed to decide which diseases they like : yer who has represented AIDS patients, and which diseases they don't like." sued the Connecticut Mutual Insurance In fact, health insurers make no secret of Co., claiming it denied him coverage betheir wish to screen out new applicants cause be is gay. And a recent report by the with AIDS, just as they refuse applicants Congressional Office of Technol~ Assess with cancer and other fatal illnesses. With ment found that nearly one-t!ir of the the costs of AIDS care expected to rise to largest commercial insurers consider sexu $16 billion by 1991, the gay community al orientation in issuing policies. has had little success in challenging that Other battles involve the AIDS test. Gay basic reluctance. Instead, AIDS patients groups have been largely unable to stop and their lawyers are pressing scores of insurers from testing applicants. Though cases across the country to stop what they California and the District of Columbia see as the industry's effort to single out prohibit such screening, most states, defertheir illness by abusing standard screening ring to the insurers' wish to weed out high processes and refusing to pay the AIDS risks, permit it. Applicants in New York bills of people who already have insurance. and WiBconsin have sued insurers who perAccording to activists. antigay discrimiformed the test without consent. And sev nation is a routine part of the screening era! who tested positive have collected procesa.InacasemuchlikeHurlbert's,Nudamages from companies that failed to Dawn Hair Cutters of Greenlawn, N.Y., treat their results confidentially. In one claims it was denied a policy because the New York case, the Prudential Insurance /\ Co. settled out of court with a man who claimed he did not know he had the virus until Prudential tested him without consent and brashly sent him the results. By far the bitterest cases involve gay men who already have coverage and then find that insurers will not pay AIDS bills. A number of self-insured businesses that finance coverage out of pension plansand, unlike commercial insur ers, are not subject to state regulations-are flatly refusing to pay AIDS claims. One man in Florida discovered that his policy limited AIDS benefits to $5,000 a year, with a $15,000 lifetime cap, though its cap for cancer and heart disease was the industry's standard $1 mil lion. Another firm in California covers care only for children with AIDS and people who got it from blood transfusions. SNIIIIII pnt11ta: Even more common, according to AIDS lawyers, are cases involving in surers that justify their refusal to pay on the basis of AIDS patients' prior health histo ries. New York lawyer Mark Scherzer describes what he says is a typical case: a compa ny that would not pay a client's hospital bill on the ground that his insurance application did not disclose that he had once had gonorrhea. The company insisted it would not have issued the policy if it had known. Scherzer challenged this and the insurer settled out of court. though not until after the client had died. AIDS lawyers say that companies are now scour ing gay men's records for pretexts to refuse or delay payments. Says Schatz of the NGRA, "Insurers are betting that people with AIDS will be too demoralized. too ill, too frightened to fight them in court. Either that, or they hope the life span of the suit will be longer than the life span of the person with AIDS." The industry in sists it must protect itself against gay men who try to buy insurance after they learn they have been exposed to AIDS. With the legal battles growing ever more angry, there is little common ground on which insurers and AIDS patients might meet. Meanwhile. the costs of AIDS mount. raising urgent questions about who will pay. There is a range of options: state-run risk pools, national health insurance. a public-hospital crisis or changes in the pri vate-insurance system. But in the long run. either through higher premiums or increased tax rates, the rest of the population will surely shoulder the costs of AIDS. TA.IIIAll JACOBY SEWSWEEK c APRIL tv.rffl 7._}
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IDhr firs ffinturs 1Rrgtntrr DES MOINES, IOWA D. 221.869 S. 364.727 APR 28 1988 BUB/JEL.LEfS -Harkin sees plastic cards iin future of aid programs By JOHN HYDE 1-11\ Of The Re9ister's Washington Bureau WASHINGTON, D.C. Senator Tom Harkin (Dem., Ia.) has seen the future and it is: Plastic. A decade from now, Harkin said Wednesday, participants in govern ment programs will be using small plastic cards -similar to today's credit cards and automatic teller cards :..... to receive their benefits. : : "It is inevitable that within the next 10 years !)r so, federal assistance programs, such as Food Stamps and Medicaid, will move to some form of electronic deliv ery system," Harkin said. A report on the implications of this development, prepared at Harkin's request by the congressiona_l Office of Technology Assessment, will be released today. p Such electronic delivery systems hold the prospect TOM of greatly cutting down waste, fraud and abuse in gov-HARKIN ernment programs, Harkin noted. "An electronic system can reduce counterfeiting, increase security, and enhance the Food and Nutrition Services' accounting system, which is currently ineffective," he said. -r. "~ .. ,>-<,-.>"'"-' .. ,.,,,,,;,.;,,-.~~::--)<.e:,~~>ioi\',;;;,"''.,;,~~~ However, the cards could also be used to invade the privacy of government recipients, the OT A report said. If all government programs were linked to the same card, the system would in effect become a universal identification number for all citizens -a suggestion Congress has re peatedly rejected because of its "police state" overtones. The report also noted that numerous federal, state and local agencies are currently involved in pilot projects using electronic delivery cards, = or are in early planning stages. . The result, OT A said, could be a costly and haphazard mess. "Failure to provide coordination going in may leave us down the road ~ with a jumble of remote systems" ranging from the existing magnetic stripe cards to the newly-developed microchip "smart cards," Harkin : said. : Harkin requested the OT A report in his capacity as chairman of. the :: :Senate Labor and Human Resources subcommittee on the handicapped. ~.~~;..-.....
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TV CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD I LIVINGSTON I NEW JERSEY 07039 (201) 992-6600 I (BOO) 631-1160 May 16, 1988 7:00-8:00 PM MT Cable News Network Larry King Live Larry King, host: ACCOUNT NUMBER 10/6297 Y NIELSEN AUDIENCE N/A There's no smoke without fire, as the saying goes. Today that fire was aimed at the tobacco industry, as Surgeon General C. Everett Koop released the twentieth report on smoking. The conclusions of the report: that your habitual. after-dinner cigarette could be an addiction, like cocaine or heroin. Could millions -of Americans be nicotine junkies? If so, how can they break that habit? C. Everett Koop. is this tradition that we have this annual tobacco report'? ( Koop continues to discuss the addictive properties of nicotine. Calls are taken.) C. Everett Koop: I think it's very. very important--is to treat people who are smokers the same way they treat people who are on hard drugs or who are using alcohol. As you probably know. most of the insurance plans will pay for treatment for alcohol abuse or for the addiction to hard drugs. but they will not do that for tobacco. Now, it seems to me that when the Office of Technology Assessment says it costs this country sixty-five billion dollars a year because of smoking, that if insurance companies, including the government with HIKFA. were to pay for. for treatment, we'd be way ahead m cost benefit. (The discussion on smoking continues.) 217 Words 18 Clips
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Newsday LONG ISLAND, N'( o. 582,388 SUN. 64J,4N MAY ?.7 l9~8 Bu8=R.E:i:fl Cop.gress Agrees at Last That Polygraphs Do Lie y!. ~r; By Daniel S. Greenberg I N A CLASS with astrology, another great cita del of crackpot faith is the cult of the poly graph, or lie detector a technically crude device that has thrived on the illusion of scientific infallibility. But now, after a long struggle between ra tionality and voodoo, Congress is about to out law several widespread uses of the contraption, including most screening of job applicants and random testing of employees. The pity of it is that a residue, about 15 percent of current usage, will be permitted, mainly for in vestigations of thefts in the workplace. The myth of the polygraph as a scientifically re liable indicator of lies and truth is a tribute to the insecurity of our era and the hustle of the clever 'Total banishment is long overdue, but as a first step, the new restric tions are welcome. peddlers who market it to naive managers in government and business. But in the absence of reliable data to support the claims of the lie-detector business, federal and most state courts regard polygraph evidence as inadmissible. That doesn't. prevent the federal government and state and local law enforcement agencies from using the lie detector as an instrument of intimida tion and fright, but it does limit the damage that the unreliable device might produce. Polygraph technology is based on the simplistic assumption that, in the test setting, deviation from Daniel S. Greenllerg is a longtime commenta tor on science and health issues and is editor and publisher of Science & Government Re port, a Wa.shington newsletter. the truth will be accompanied by telltale changes in breathing, blood pres sure and perspiration. In accord with this faith, the person under scrutiny is wired up to measuring devices for these three phenomena, neutral and sensitive questions are mingled by the examiner and the results are automatically recorded in ink lines on pa per tape. Oh, so scientific! But it did not turn out to be so at all five years ago when the _Qff~ Technology Assessment, a congres sional researdi agency, collected and evaluated reports of the scientific re search that has been performed on the polygraph. The QIA study was inspired by the Reagan administration's move toward wholesale use of polygraph tests as an antidote not only to espionage but also to press leaks and whistle-blowing by federal employees. Since that study was conducted, nothing has come along to shore up the polygraph's reliability. Alter poring over all the available research reports, the congressional reviewers concluded that "the available research evidence does not es tablish the scientific validity of the polygraph test for personnel security screening." In criminal investigations, they re ported, the polygraph performed better than a flip of the coin, but it still Neweday Thomas R. Koenige made a lot of mistakes by flagging the innocent was unable to duplicate that experiment. and exonerating the guilty. OTA cautioned that But overall, OTA concluded, the chances of de national security could be especially endangered tection may be reduced by ''physical countermeasby an erroneous clean bill of health. ures," drugs and mental exercises. The review of polygraph research also noted People who combined an understanding of the that no great skill is required to fool the maworkings of the polygraph with countermeasures chine which means that persons coached in "were detected significantly less than subject, polygraph techniques can easily emerge unde-without such training," according to OTA. tected while true innocents might be falsely Total banishment of the polygraph is long overidentified as liars. due, but as a first step, the new restrictions al'! One researcher, OTA reported, "found that welcome. when subjects press their toes towards the floor National security, lawfulness and honest deal they were able to reduce the probability of detecings are not assisted by quackery decked out a, tion from 75 to 10 percent." Another researcher science.
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\ /IS S,.Tl7.~)lun9 eti;zI 9961 NOC 000'6 /\1)133ft If/I '013I.:19NUldS -----SJHH ltl?f303J .. ----. -.. -------. Small, Influential Office Guides Congress Into Space-Age By::;:a:,, Pre,;dent Reagan:~:: Ythe nation by announcing he had directed military planners to def velop a space-based "peace shield" capable of defend ing the U.S. against a strategic nuclear attack. Reagan's planned "Strategic Defense Initiative," dubbed Star Wars, immediately drew offensive strikes from all over, including segments of the Defense com munity where anti-ballistic missile systems had been considered and rejected numerous times. But despite the technical reservations, Reagan used his then-high reserve of political capital to propel the ; program forward, costing the Pentagon substantial I manpower and the Treasury billions of dollars. Congress, which had to okay the funds for develop-I ment, basically went along for the ride for a while. But lawmakers, groping for dispassionate analysis of SDl's feasibility, soon turned to the shop they created in 1972 to provide technical information to delicate political questions like SDI. Meet the Office ofTechnolo~ Assessment, whose experts weighed our present~ay technical all.ilities against the administration's nebulous plan and con cluded, essentially, that Reagan was kidding himself and the rest of us. Under John Gib bons, OTA Is credit ed with having matured' Into the scientific heavy weight whose assessments can mean llfe or death for technical programs In the appropriations process. FederalTI,,_,, Doug ............ scientific theories stand little chance of winning status as conventional wisdom on Capitol Hill. SDI "might be plausible for limited purposes, such as defense of ICBM silos or complication of enemy at tack plans, but not for the more ambitious goal of assur-I Non-Partisanship Assured mg the survival of U.S. society," the report said. With that concise statement, OTA managed to do what thousands of opponents and their million-001lar campaigns had been unable to accomplish tilt Wash ington political opinion against SDI. The program has been on something of a funding tightrope ever since, and in March the Pentagon announced plans to scale it back massively. The revised goal is a system that can provide limited defense of mil itary-only targets close to what OTA suggested. The SDI story is a prime example of the substantial I clout the technology office has amassed in its young life. It also illustrates that without OTA's nod, leading How is it that such an agency can have this kind of status? And tnat it can sustain the clout even though positioned, necessarily, where the scientific method meets the political road? Part of the reason seems to be the elaborate steps congressional drafters went through to ensure OTA would be objective and non-partisan. The office is run by a 12-member board consisting of six Democrats and six Republicans (Including three each from the House and Senate). The chair, currently held by Rep. Morris Udall, D-Ariz., alternates between party and body in succeeding Congresses; Udall took the reins from Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, for the 100th Congress, while Stevens remains vice chairman. The board decides whether requests for study will be pursued, usually based on resources, though board members can and have rejected requests determined to be politically oriented. Studies are undertaken only for congressional com mittees; individual members of Congress may not use OTA for their own purposes. Also, the board by major ity vote can withhold the results ofa study. Another apparent reason for OTA's clout is that it doesn't overextend itself. Only about 30 assessments are under way at any given time, and only about 15 to 20 studies are released eaclr year, a marked contrast to other Hill study groups such as the General Accounting Office and Congressional Research Service. An OTA report typically take 18 months to produce. They run 300 pages or more and cost taxpayers about $500,000. But the most striking feature of OTA is the staff size: the fiscal 1988 staff ceiling is 143 full-time equivalent (FTE) employees, a little more than a hundred of whom are professionals. They staff nine OTA program areas ranging from energy and materials, to oceans and envi ronment, to food and renewable resources. By comparison, there are nearly 5,400 employees at GAO, Congress' non-partisan accounting wing. The technology office also relies heavily on private sector resources, and 40 to 60 on-site contractors typi cally participate in ongoing projects. Rocky Beginning Yet although OTA is now regarded as a high-priest in the legislative process, the ordination was a rocky affair. The 1972 Technology Assessment Act grew from Con gress' increasing reluctance to rely on outside informa tion to make political judgments on technical issues that were becoming increasingly more complex. C See Technology, Page 18
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Technology FromPage2 (._ But many worried that Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Mass., who spearheaded the law's enactment, would mold OTA into a liberal think-tank that would rubber-stamp his agenda As a result. OTA did not get off the ground, or even get its first director, until 1974. And the first two direc tors, who collectively served fewer than five years, spent more time dousing political brushfires than p~ ducing scientific analyses. In 1979, John Gibbons, who had impressed many in Congress when he "led the White House Office of ~ergy Conservation in the midst of the energy crisis in 1973, took the reins. And under his stewardship, the office is. credited with having matured into the scientific heavyweight whose assessments can mean life or death for technical programs in the appropriations process. Gibbons is fond of saying the agency is well-posi tioned in its small, red-brick. colonial-style building six blocks east of the Capitol on Pennsylvania Avenue. The location keeps OTA far enough from daily firestorms but close enough to be an integral part of the legislative process, the di rector says. He also mentions often his goal of keeping OTA at the "cutting edge" of technological issues, even when it means letting the chips fall on political toes. A sampling of recent studies by the office corresponds closely to issues considered to be major ones in the coming presidential eleetion. On trade, for in stance, the office has rendered assessments on "Com petitiveness of Domestic Copper," "Technology Trans fer to China" and "International Competition in the Service Industries." On education, OTA recently opined on "Educational Technology: An Assessment of Practice and Potential." Even the most delicate political issues like "Life-Sus taining Technologies and the Elderly" have come under OTA review. In OTA's early years, such sensitive probes would have been overshadowed by suspicions about the source. But attacks against the office's propriety are becoming less frequent. as OTA gradually wins accep tance as the dispassionate scientific observer Congress intended it to be. And now that it is more than 15 years old, at least one thing is clear: in a town where unimpeachable sources are oh-so-hard to come by, OTA has managed to secure a position near the top of the list .. .,. i
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