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Quarterly Report to the Technology Assessment Board, April 1 - June 30, 1990

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Title:
Quarterly Report to the Technology Assessment Board, April 1 - June 30, 1990
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Quarterly Report Office of Technology Assessment
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Office of Technology Assessment
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Office of Technology Assessment
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English
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91 pages.

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Technology assessment ( LIV )
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federal government publication ( marcgt )
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Washington, D.C.

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This is a quarterly report detailing the budget and progress of the Office of Technology Assessment.

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University of North Texas
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University of North Texas
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This item is a work of the U.S. federal government and not subject to copyright pursuant to 17 U.S.C. §105.

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University of Florida
OTA:
Office of Technology Assessment

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Quarterly Report to the Tech no logy Assessment Board Apr. 1-June 30, 1990 OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES

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Office of Technology Assessment Congressional Board of the 101 st Congress EDWARD M KENNEDY, Massachusetts, Chairman CLARENCE E MILLER, Ohio, Vice Chairman Senate ERNEST F HOLLINGS South Carolina House MORRIS K UDALL Arizona CLAIBORNE PELL Rhode Island GEORGE E. BROWN, JR. TED STEVENS Alaska ORRIN G HATCH Utah CHARLES E. GRASSLEY Iowa CHASE N. PETERSON, Chairman University of Utah JOSHUA LEDERBERG, Vice Chairman Rockefeller University CHARLES A. BOWSHER G~neral Accounting Office LEWIS BRANSCOMB Harvard University JOHN H GIBBONS (Nonvoting) Advisory Council MICHEL T HALBOUTY Michel T Halbouty Energy Co. NEIL E HARL Iowa State University JAMES C HUNT University of Tennessee HENRY KOFFLER University of Arizona Director JOHN H GIBBONS California JOHN D DINGELL Michigan DON SUNDQUIST Tennessee AMO HOUGHTON New York SALLY RIDE California Space Institute JOSEPH E ROSS Congressional Research Service JOHN F M SIMS Usibelli Coal Mine, Inc. MARINA v N WHITMAN General Motors Corp.

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CONTENTS I. COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS A. Swnmary of FY '89 Completions, Ongoing Work in FY '90, and New Starts Through June 30, 1990 ........................... 2 B. Products Delivered During the Quarter 1. Formal Assessment Reports ................................. 3 2. Other: Special Reports, Technical Memoranda, Background Papers, Staff Papers or Letter Memoranda, Workshop Proceedings, and Committee Prints ................ 6 3. Testimony ................................................ 10 C. Other Communication with Congress 1. Formal Briefing --Topics ................................ 12 2. Other Major Issues Being Tracked ......................... 13 D. List of Current OTA Assessments as of 06/30/90 ................ 17 E. Third Quarter 1990: Legislation Assigning Responsibility to OTA ................................... 19 F. New Assessments Approved During the Quarter ................... 23 II. PUBLICATION BRIEFS OF FORMAL ASSESSMENTS DELIVERED III. SELECTED NEWS CLIPS ON OTA PUBLICATIONS AND ACTIVITIES

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I. -2-COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS A. Summary of FY '89 Com12letions, Ongoing Work in Through June 30, 1990 FY '89 Products Released Total Ql Formal Assessments 8 4 Other Special Reports 3 3 Report Supplements 0 Technical Memoranda l Background Papers, Case Studies, or Workshop Proceedings 13 1 Summaries Testimony 35 7 Staff Papers or Letter Memoranda 16 2 Administrative Documents 6 1 New Projects A1212roved by TAB Assessments 14 2 Other (Scope Changes; Special Responses Over Director's limits) 1 Projects in Process as of June 1. Under TAB Review 4 2. In Press Assessments 4 Other (TM's, Background Papers, etc.) 4 3. In Progress Assessments Other 25 30 FY '90, and New Starts FY '90 Q2 Q3 Q4 2 3 4 5 4 1 13 19 5 4 1 1 1 6 30, 1990

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-3-I. COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS B. 1. Products Released During the Quarter Formal Assessment Reports ACCESS TO SPACE: THE FUTURE OF U.S. SPACE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS -Recent executive branch reports have identified ambitious civilian and military space goals, many of which could only be met by achieving significant advances in space transportation technology. Whether or not this nation chooses to pursue these specific goals, Congress needs credible information regarding the relationship between space goals and space launch technology and the feasibility of achieving critical technical and cost milestones. Although some technology research will be "generic," the launch needs of NASA, Air Force, SDI, and the U.S. private sector are not identical. If this nation chooses to invest in advanced launcher technology, it will be important to ensure that launch vehicle requirements are met without unnecessarily dissipating scarce national resources on duplicative or unproductive research. In light of these concerns, OTA's assessment: 1) identifies launch systems capable of serving the plausible range of demand for space transportation over the next 20 years; 2) identifies and evaluates key technologies -including low-cost, low-technology systems -that might increase the performance and reduce the cost of space transportation while contributing to U.S. industrial competitiveness; 3) evaluates the time and cost of development of these technologies; 4) determines how changes in spacecraft design and operations will influence launch technology; 5) analyzes techniques and incentives that could reduce the operations and maintenance costs of new technologies; 6) examines alternative roles for the private sector; 7) assesses the state of advanced launch research in other countries; and 8) discusses the adequacy of existing institutions for carrying out an aggressive R&D program to meet the needs of diverse users.

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-4-Interim Deliverables: Reducing Launch Operations Costs: New Technologies and Practices (Tech. Memo) (published 9/88) Launch Options for the Future: Buyer's Guide (Special Report) (published 7/88) Big Dumb Booster: A Low-Cost, Space Transportation Option (Staff Paper) (published 2/89) Round-Trip to Orbit: Alternatives for Human Spaceflight (Special Report)(published 8/89) Affordable Spacecraft: Design and Launch Alternatives (Background Paper) (published 2/90) Requesters: House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Hon. Robert A. Roe, Chairman Hon. Manuel Lujan, Jr., Ranking Minority Member Senate Committee on Commerce, Science,and Transportation (99th Congress) Hon. John C. Danforth, then Chairman, now Ranking Minority Member Hon. Slade Gorton, then Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Ray Williamson, 228-6448 (Published 4/90) HIGH TEMPERATURE SUPERCONDUCTIVITY IN PERSPECTIVE The availability of high-temperature superconducting materials offers potential for many fundamentally new technological and market opportunities in computers, transportation, electric power, and other applications. Since early 1987, technical advances have been announced literally weekly and progress over the next two decades is likely to continue to be rapid on both scientific and commercial fronts. This assessment focuses on research and development needs for applications, the U.S. research and development agenda for these materials, the technical and economic barriers facing potential applications, and the processing/manufacturing requirements for delivering products using these materials. An earlier report, delivered in June 1988, on commercialization issues (Industry, Technology, and Employment Program), focused on the adequacy of Federal institutions, processes and policies to facilitate, in a manner competitive with other nations, the transition from invention to marketable product.

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-5-Requesters: Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Hon. J. Bennett Johnston, Chairman Hon. James A. McClure, Ranking Minority Member Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Hon. John Glenn, Chairman Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Ernest F. Hollings, Chairman Hon. John C. Danforth, Ranking Minority Member Hon. John D. Rockefeller Hon. Lloyd Bentsen Hon. Ron W. Riegle, Jr., Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Space and Technology Hon. Larry Pressler, Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Hon. Robert A. Roe, Chairman Hon. Manuel Lujan, Jr., Ranking Republican Member Project Directors: John Alic, 228-6345, and Greg Eyring, 228-6270 Phase I: .Commercializing High-Temperature Superconductors Project Director: John Alic, 228-6345 (Published 6/88) Phase II: High-Temperature Superconductivity in Perspective Project Director: Greg Eyring, 228-6270 (Published 5/90) PHYSICAL VULNERABILITY OF ELECTRIC SYSTEM TO NATURAL DISASTERS AND SABOTAGE Lengthy disruptions in the supply of electricity, natural gas, and refined oil products can cause huge economic losses and serious threats to the public health, safety and convenience. There are many points in the complex systems for producing and delivering energy which are vulnerable to disruption, whether by hostile action or massive natural disaster. Terrorist activity is quite low in this country, but that could change rapidly, and major earthquakes and other disasters are inevitable. The major concern of policy makers appears to be that such issues may not be adequately considered in planning and operating energy facilities, resulting in an unnecessarily high level of vulnerability. If this turns out to be a concern of significant importance, it is possible that improved design of specific facilities reduce vulnerability. In addition, alternative system concepts could be more sensitive to such concerns and therefore the overall reliability and durability of our energy system enhanced?

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-6-A number of OTA assessments have addressed the technologies integral to the Nation's energy-delivery systems and the proposed assessment would draw heavily on that experience. Both industry and the executive branch have been addressing this issue for the past several years. This assessment identifies the points of greatest vulnerability, particularly in electric transmission systems, and evaluates ways to reduce the vulnerability or mitigate the consequences. The focus is on measures that can be accomplished at low cost and minimal interference to the operation of the systems. Reguestor: Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs The Honorable John Glenn, Chairman Project Director: Alan Crane, 228-6427 (published 6/90) I. B. 2. Other: Special Reports. Technical Memoranda. Background Papers. Workshop Proceedings. Committee Prints. and Administrative Reports ARMING OUR ALLIES: COOPERATION AND COMPETITION IN DEFENSE TECHNOLOGYThis Report is the first product of the full assessment International Collaboration in Defense Technologies. This review comes at a time when the U.S. has lost its monopoly advantage in the development and production of sophisticated defense systems. Three centers of rough technological and economic parity now dominate the globe--the United States, the European Community, and Japan. As a result, overcapacity and real competition for shrinking defense markets among the different national and regional defense industries has become evident. It provides an overview of the subject and analyzes the impact that changes in the environment of defense technology and reduced East-West tensions will exert on defense industrial cooperation and associated alliance relations. Project Director: William Keller, 228-6434 (published 5/90)

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-7-RECOMBINANT ERYTHROPOIETIN: PAYMENT OPTIONS FOR MEDICARE The Report responds to a request by the House Committee on Ways and Means, Subcommittee on Health, to evaluate alternative Medicare payment policies that might control expenses related to Recombinant Erythropoietin (rHuEPO) without sacrificing quality of care for beneficiaries. Recombinant Erythropoietin, a new product of biotechnology, treats anemia associated with chronic renal failure--a degenerative kidney disease that eventually requires continuous dialysis or transplantation to maintain life. By increasing the body's production of red blood cells, rHuEPO may correct anemia and reduce the need for blood transfusions. However, Medicare law prohibits coverage for self-administration of rHuEPO. People who receive dialysis at home must now travel to their physicians' offices or dialysis centers to be covered. Extending coverage would reduce these patients' personal expenses, but would raise those of the Medicare program. Project Director: Jane Sisk, 228-6590 (published 5/90) NEUROTOXICITY: IDENTIFYING AND CONTROLLING POISONS OF THE NERVOUS SYSTEM -This Report, the first of the neurosciences series, discusses the risks posed by neurotoxic substances--substances that can adversely affect the nervous systems--and evaluates the Federal research and regulatory programs now in place to address these risks. One finding of this report is that considerably more research and testing are necessary to determine which substances have neurotoxic potential. Neurotoxic effects can often go unrecognized because symptoms are varied and may not appear for months or even years. Adverse effects range from impaired movement, anxiety, and confusion to memory loss, convulsions, and death. Another important finding is the need for greater public awareness. Neurotoxic chemicals constitute a major public health threat; the social and economic consequences of excessive exposure to them are potentially very large. Minimizing exposure requires action not just by regulatory and other public officials, but also by individual citizens who can take steps to avoid these substances both at home and in the workplace. Project Director: David Liskowsky, 228-6676 (published 4/90)

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-8-ENERGY USE AND THE U.S. ECONOMY This report tracks the changing relationship between energy use and the economy and provides analysis of the 1972-85 period when U.S. energy use remained level, but at the same time the economy grew by 40 percent. This was a sharp departure from post World War II trends when growth in the two factors appeared to be in lock step. The study identifies the causes for this apparent separation of energy use from economic growth, and aims to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the relationship between the two. Project Director: Andy Wyckoff, 228-6289 (published 6/90) BIG PICTURE: HDTV & HIGH-RESOLUTION SYSTEMS The Report is a primer of High Definition Television (HDTV) technology and its relationship to high-resolution computer systems. During 1989, HDTV moved from obscurity to center stage in the ongoing debate over the role of the Federal Government in U.S. industrial competitiveness. HDTV and related High-Resolution Systems (HRS) technologies in the computer and communications sectors may significantly impact U.S. electronics manufacturing, accelerate fundamental restructuring of the U.S. communications infrastructure, and provide a host of valuable services. Project Directors: James Curlin, 228-6787 & Audrey Buyrn, 228-6348 (published 6/90) BENEATH THE BOTTOM LINE: AGRICULTURAL APPROACHES TO REDUCE AGRICHEMICAL CONTAMINATION OF GROUNDWATER This summary of the full Report scheduled to be published in August 1990 highlights the fact that protection of the Nation's groundwater resources has become an issue of pressing concern to the public, to Congress, and to many Federal, State, and local agencies. Agencies and organizations at all levels are undertaking programs designed to affect a farmer's choice of technology, and thus the potential for introduction of agrichemicals into groundwater. Such programs include extensive efforts in data collection and management, research and development, extension and education, and regulatory actions. Several primary conclusions derived from the analysis covered in this assessment have clear policy implications. First, agriculture is a national, strategic resource, options that severely reduce the U.S. capacity to produce food to feed the domestic population are clearly adverse to the interests of society. Second, protection of environmental quality is high

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-9on the public lists of societal goals. Certain agricultural technologies; in nutrient and pest management; in crop, soil, and water management practices; in data analysis and planning; and in design of farming systems--show considerable promise for reducing the potential for agrichemicals to enter groundwater. Project Director: Alison Hess, 228-6516 ASSESSMENT ACTIVITIES (Administrative Document) OTA Staff Papers or Letter Memoranda (published 5/90) (published 5/90) Date 04/90 04/90 04/90 05/90 Subject How Has Federal Research on AIDS/HIV Disease Contributed to Other Fields? (Staff Paper) Proposal Pressure in the 1980's: An Indicator of Stress on the Federal Research System (Staff Paper) OTA's Review of National Research Council Report Health Effects of Exposure to Low-Levels of Ionizing Radiation (Staff Paper) Carson River Mercury Superfund Site (Staff Paper) Description Fifth Paper in OTA's series of AIDS-related issues reviews results of survey of distinguished biomedical and social scientists. Prior and on-going work in Health Program Examination of stress in research system. On-going work in the Science, Education and Transporation program Comments based on past and on-going work within Health Program's monitoring of Mandated Veteran's Study OTA examines feasibility of cleaning up mercury contamination in Carson River, Nevada, based on past work within ITE program

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-10-I. B. Testimony Date 04/03/90 04/04/90 04/05/90 04/25/90 04/25/90 04/26/90 05/08/90 05/10/90 05/15/90 05/18/90 Committee Subcommittee on Natural Resources Agricultural Research and Environment, House Committee on Science, Space and Technology House Committee on Veteran's Affairs Subcommittee on Commerce, Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation Subcommittee on Health and the Environment, House Committee on Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Science, Research and Technology, House Committee on Science, Space and Technology Subcommittee on Policy Research and Insurance, House Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs Subject/Person Testifying Pollution Prevention Research Needs and Consideration of H.R. 3693 "Pollution Advancement Act" (Joel Hirschhorn) The Centers for Disease Control Selected Cancer Study (Hellen Gelband) Product Liability and Manufacturing Competitiveness (Julie Gorte) Response to Global Change -What You Can Do (John Andelin) OTA Reports on Fertility and World Population and Fertility Planning Technologies (Gretchen Kolsrud) Copyright of Federally Developed Software (James Curlin) Public Works: What are the Needs and How Can We Finance Them? (Edith Page) Subcommittee on Water Resources, Coastal Pollution Problems House Public Works and Transportation (Howard Levenson) Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Subcommittee on Procurement, Tourism and Rural Development, House Committee on Small Business Small Communities and Environmental Protection (Edith Page) Defense Industry (Alan Shaw)

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Date 05/22/90 05/24/90 06/01/90 06/12/90 06/14/90 06/24/90 06/28/90 06/28/90 06/28/90 -11-Committee Subcommittee on Health, House Committee on Ways and Means Subcommittee on Transportation, Aviation and Materials, House Committee on Science, Space and Technology Select Committee on Aging, House of Representatives Field Hearings, Torn Rivers, NJ Subcommittee on Defense Industry and Technology, Senate Committee on Armed Services Subcommittee on Health, House Committee on Ways and Means Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Subcommittee on Commerce, Consumer Protection, and Competitiveness, House Committee on Energy and Commerce Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Subject/Person Testifying Preliminary Results of a Study of Cost-Effectiveness of Screening for Colorectal Cancer in Elderly (Roger C. Herdman) Oil Transportation Safety (Peter Johnson) Preventive Services for Medicare Benefits (Judy Wagner) Defense Collaboration (Bill Keller) Medicare Payment for Recombinant Erythropoeitin (Roger C. Herdman) Federal Coordination in Science and Math Education (John Andelin) Municipal Solid Waste Issues and H.R. 4942 (Howard Levenson) Physical Vulnerability on Electric Systems to Natural Disaster and Sabotage (Alan Crane and Robin Roy) Subcommittee on Superfund, Ocean and Public Health and Marine Water Protection, Senate Committee on Waters Environment and Public Works (Howard Levenson) (written testimony)

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I. C. -12-Other Communication with Congress 1. Formal Briefings. Presentations, Workshops (With Committee Staffs) COMMITTEES OF THE SENATE Environment and Public Works Subcommittee on Water Resources. Transportation, and Infrastructure o State and Public Works Financing and Management Governmental Affairs o The Basic Research Study and Peer Review COMMITTEES OF THE HOUSE Public Works and Transportation Subcommittee on Surface Transportation o State and Local Public Works Financing and Management Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs Subcommittee on Policy Research and Insurance o State and Local Public Works SPECIAL COMMITTEES Competitiveness Caucus o Manufacturing Competitiveness Democratic Competitiveness Caucus o "Making Things Better" Report Task Force on Trade and Competitiveness o "Making Things Better" Report

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-13-2. Other Major Issues Being Tracked In addition to briefings and presentations, informal discussions take place continually, as requested by Members and staff. OTA staff members give updates on ongoing work and provide information that Members and Committees may need relative to legislation pending or under consideration or for hearings and related testimony. Energy and Materials Program Alternative Fuels Automotive Fuel Efficiency CAFE regulations Changing Structure of U.S. Economy Electric Power Competition Electric Power System Vulnerability Energy Efficiency Energy in Developing Countries Energy Storage Energy Technology in Developing Countries Energy Use in the U.S. Ethanol Health Effects of Electric & Magnetic Fields Materials Recycling Methanol New Electric Power Technologies Nuclear Power Power System Vulnerability to Terrorism Quality of Economic Statistics Reformulated Gasoline Social Costs of Energy Use Superconductors Industry, Technology and Employment Program Advanced Technology Programs in NIST Brio Superfund Site Carson River Superfund Site Commercial strategies for R&D Economic Conversion Industrial Extension Japanese Government Assistance to small business Making Things Better Report Manufacturing and Training Manufacturing Competitiveness Resources for Training Consortia Restoring U.S. Leadership in Manufacturing Rights of Striking workers

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-14-Superfund Program Issues Technology Extension Programs in Japan Technology Policy Trade Policy Training of Workers for Improving Manufacturing Competitiveness International Security and Commerce Program Affordable Spacecrafts Defense Collaboration Defense Production Act Requirements DoD Investment Strategy START Verification Technology and Terrorism Biological Applications Program Aging Asbestos as a Health Hazard Biotechnology Demography Forensic Uses of DNA Tests Human Genome Projects Infertility Food and Renewable Resources Program AID's money pipeline Alternative Crops for Bolivian Coca Crops Animal Drug Residue in Milk Supply ASCS Disaster Assistance to Farmers; how rates are determined BLM and Scottsdale, AZ determination of land use BLM and water projects in the Central Valley Project Bureau of Land Management and Rangeland Case Study on Bottled Water Corp. of Engineers Flood Control work in the Sound Deficiency Payments on Cotton in USDA Program Development Fund for Africa DoD's procurement of beef for its commissaries Economics of Timber Industry Environmental Treaties Farmer Income Programs and Cost of Production Foreign Assistance to Panama Forest Service Plan Groundwater Study International Agriculture Trade Policies and Impact on Health and Food Safety New Forestry Plague of Locust report

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-15-Quality of Food Safety Inspection Programs Quality of U.S. canned meat Salmonella in Food Summer Food Service Program Act Timber Management Investments Timber Prices in the Northwest U.S. Agriculture Policy Health Program AIDS Costs Asbestos Assessing Quality of Medical Care Breast Cancer Screening Clinical Practice Guidelines Disability Policy and Technology DTP Vaccine Economics of Prescription Drugs Home Health Care Medicare Payment for EPO New Methods for Technology Assessment Oregon's Medicaid Proposal Organ Transplants Prevention and Elderly People Prospective Payment Assessment Commission Rural Health Data Treatment of Drug Abuse Unconventional Cancer Treatments Vietnam Veterans Health Communications and Information Technologies Program Automated Firearm Purchase Checks Computer Software Critical Connections Forthcoming Securities Markets Report Government Printing Office GPO Improvement Act of 1990 Information Technology and Policy National Technical Information Services Paperwork Reduction Act Scientific and Technical Information

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Oceans and Environment Program Acid Rain Antarctica Barriers to Recycling CFS's and Global Warming Clean Coal Technologies Farm Bill Forest Service Plan and CO2 Gas Leaks Hazardous Waste Labeling of Consumer Products Methane and Agriculture Montreal Protocol Natural Gas Supply Nuclear Waste Oil Spill Cleanup Old Growth Forests and CO2 Packaging Paper Preservation Tanker Safety Tax on Virgin Materials Urban Ozone Zebra Mussels -16-Science. Education and Transportation Program Basic Research Study Bill on Science Research Protection Act of 1990 Bill to Form an Interagency Council on Science, Math and Technology Education Computers and Math and Science Education Distance Learning Educational Testing Faculty-Scholar Fellowship Programs Federal Management for Public Works Immigration Policy for Science and Technology Impact of Federal Research Funding on Graduate Education Integrity Testing K-12 "Hands-On" Experiences in Science Literacy NIH Funding: New Starts vs. Continuing Awards NSF Funding Data OSTP and NSF vis-a-vis Science Education Projected Shortage of Science/Engineering Ph.D. Faculty R&D Spending by Sector Science Education Transportation -Magnetic Levitation and Tilt Rotor Vocational Education Reauthorization

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ASSESSMENTS IN PROGRESS, June 30, 1990: BUDGET** AND SCHEDULE 1990---------------------------------1991---------------------------> $ Thousands Current Projected Date For Delivery To TAB TAB OTA % ARI!..... Proj. Var. ENERGY, MATERIALS, AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY Energy and Materials 1121 Technological Risks and Opportunities for Future U.S. Energy Supply and Demand .................................................................... X 1126 New Energy Technologies and Developing Countries ............................................................. X 1127 YU.S. Energy Efficiency: Past Trends and Future Opportunities ................................................................. (Feb. 1992) 353 755 799.5 Industry, Technology, and Employment 1216 Europe 1992(expansion of cost code 1213) .................................................... X 260 1217 *Technology Opportunities for Economic Conversion (in coordination with ISC #1318) .............................................. (May 1992) 750 1315 1316 1317 1318 International Security and Commerce Technologies for START Agreement ....................................................................... X International Collaboration in Defense Technologies ................................................................ X Use of Technology in Countering Terrorism ........................................................ X *Managing the Nation's Defense Industrial Strength in a Changing Security Environment (in coordination with ITE #1217) ......... (Mar. HEALTH AND LIFE SCIENCES Food and Renewable Resources 2115 U.S. Universities and Development Assistance ....................... X 2116 Emerging Agricultural Technology: Issues for the 1990's ....................... X 2117 Renewable Resource Planning Technologies for Public Land Use ........................................... X Health 1992) 2203 Monitoring of Mandated Veteran Studies ................................................................................. (indeterminate) 2219 Unconventional Cancer Treatment .................................... X 2222 Drug Labeling in Developing Countries ........................................ X 2224 Preventive Health Services under Medicare .................................... X 2225 Adolescent Health ................................................. X 2229 Federal Response to AID' s: Congressional Issues ....................................................................... (indeterminate) 2231 Government Policies and Pharmaceutical R&D ............................ '. ....................................................... X 2232 Evaluation of the Oregon Medicaid Proposal ...................................................... X 2233 YHome Intravenous and Immunosuppresive Drug Therapies Under the Medicare Program ......................................... X Biological Applications 778 759 534 750 155.5 412 486 88 523 490 310 501 280 547 135 218 2315 New Developments in Neuroscience ............................................................................................. (Oct. 1991) 690 2318 Biotechnology in a Global Economy ................................................................................ X 2319 Policy Issues in the Prevention and Treatment of Osteoporosis ............................................................... (June 1991) 3121 3122 3123 3124 3216 3218 3310 3313 3314 SCIENCE, INFORMATION, AND NATUBAL RESOURCES Communication and Information Technologies Securities Markets and Information Technology ..................... X Information Technology and Research ............................... X Information Age Technology and Rural Economic Development ...................... X *Technological Change and Global Competition in Intellectual Property Protection for Computer Software ........................ (Oct. 1991) Oceans and Environment Program Climate Change: Ozone Depletion and the Green House Effect ....... X Cleaning Up the Nation's Defense Nuclear Waste ................................ X Science, Education, and Transportation Infrastructure Technologies: Rebuilding the Foundations Basic Research for the 1990' s ............................................................................... X Schools, Kids, and Measurement: Technologies of Assessment ................................................................ (Sept. 1991) 571 422 686 564 447 630 380 915 1,085 419 594 **TAB App. -TAB approved budget estimates; OTA Proj. -OTA projected budget as of 6/30/90; % Var. Percent variance of projected cost. Approved by TAB at 6/28/90 meeting *Approved by TAB at 5/10/90 meeting 370 + 4.8 755 799.5 270 + 3.7 750 778 759 534 750 155.5 412 486 24 576 490 310 569 280 547 135 218 690 571 422 665 520 447 630 402 892 986 410 594 -N/A-+10.1 +13.5 -3.1 -7.8 + 5.8 -2.5 -9.1 -2 .1

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17 -I. D. LIST OF CURRENT OTA ASSESSMENTS AS OF JUNE 30, 1990 For further information please call OTA's Office of Congressional Affairs -4-9241 Esllmllld Cost dllMry to Pn,fect Dlractor/ Codi Project tllll TAB for r9Vlew contact ENERGY. MATERIALS, AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY DIVISION ElltlffMa1n1a,,....:P11w11111r,,,.....-..,HZ11 1121 Tedlnologlcal rlslls and opportunlllll for fubn U.S. energy sllPl)ly and demand ............. Jan. 1991 Rll)lacing gasoline: alllmalMt fulls for light duty whlcles (spec:la report) (under TAB rlVlew) ............................. Dellllered Automollw full economy (spedal npart) ............................... Sept. 1990 1128 Nlw energy 1lcllllOlogiel and dMklClino counb1II ....................................... Fell. 1991 Fulling dMlopment 1ss1a and QIIIIOl1UnlllN Qnllrtm l'lpOrt) ................ Aug. 1990 1127 U.S. nrgy eftlclency: past binds and fubn opporlunlllea ................................ Fell. 1992 llldllllry, Tlcllllllff, Ell=III ~Al*ly..,.., Pre..-....... H14I 1215 'M>rbr training: c ng in 1111 ,_ intemallonal economy (undlr TA8 mtew) ............ Dellvered 1218 Europe 1992 (Dl)lllllon of COit codl 1213) .......................... Nov. 1990 1217 Tedlnology oCll)Oftunlllll for econom1C cOMllion Qn coonlnalon wtll'I 1SC 11318) ................................ May 1992 -...1111111ca1y1111c.. .. Pre..-:Allllllw,,....._ ..... ,HMI 1315 TICllncllogill for S'MT IQINllllll ..................................................... Jan. 1991 Verltlcalon lldlnologlls: 1111M1n1 for monitoring COffll)llancl wllll 1111 SlMT treaty Ontlrlm Sl)ldll npart) (undlr TAB rlVlew) ........ Dellwfld 1316 lnllmllonal COIIIIIOfallon In dlfllm flChnOIOgllS ...................................... M.-. 1991 Anning our 11111: coopllltlon and COffll>IIIIIOn In dlfense llehnology (spedal IIPOrt) (pulllllbldS/90) 1317 UII of IICllnology In counllrlng ""1lltsm ............................................... Dec. 1990 1111 of llctlllalogy In counlll1lnoftsm (spedal npart) ........................... July 1990 1318 Managing 1111 Nallon's -...1ndultrlal s1llngtll In a chlnQlng securtty envll'Ollffllflt Qn coonlnalon wllh E&M 11217) .............................................. Mar. 1992 tEADH AND LIFE SCIENCES DIVISION FIM IH R .... 11 RIii ,_ F.....-: lllllr,.._, Pre....... HIZI 2114 8111111111111 bOttOm HIii: agrtcultural aplJl'OICheS to l'ldUCI agrtchlmiCal contamlnalon of groundWatlr On press) .............................................. DIIMred 2115 U.S. univlrsitlls and dMlopmlnt asslstancl: tachnical slJIJl)Oft for agricult1119, natural moun:es, and IIMronmenl (spedal report) ................................... July 1990 2116 Emerging agrtmtu111 llctilOlogy: ilsun for 1111 1990s ................................... Nov. 1990 AQrtcutturat l'IRll'dl and llchnology tlansflr pollcllS for 1111 19905: special report for 1990 Fann 811 (publlslled 3'80) (DTP) 2117 Renewallll resoun:e pllnning tecllnolOQlls for publlc land use . . . . . . . Jan. 1991 Forest Slrvlcl planmng: Sllllng strallglC clncllon under R~ (speclal report) (pulllllhld 7 /90) HIID Pre..-: Clya :-ic:.s Pre.............. 2203 Monitoring of wtaran s1ldls (mandalld ongoing actMtles) ..................... lldlllrmiialla 2219 Unconwnllonal canctr trlllmlnlS ............................................. July 1990 2222 Drug lablllng in dMiolJlng counlrlll-plmt I (publlshld 11188) Drug lablllng In dMloplng counlltel IJMll 11 .......................... July 1990 2224 PrMntlw S1MC1S for Mldlclfl lllnllldartls: policy and l'IRll'dl Issues (spedal report) (publlllld 2/90) ScrNnlng for Olm'IRQII glaucoma In 1111 lldlrly (staff paper) (publlshld 10188) UII of prMnlM SIMCII (staff 1111*) (pullllshld-Cllollltlnll SClllling for1111 lldllty (sllff 1111*) (pullllshld .WS) Clrvlcal CIIICII' SClllling (lllck. PII*) (putlillllld 2/90) (DTP) Coknclal CIIIClr WlilQ (staff PII*) (Sept. 1990) (DTP) 2225 Adalllclllt 1111111 ..................................................................... July 1990 lndlln --111111111 1111111 (tpldll npart) (pullllshld 1,9)) HIIIIII IIIIUIIIICI for lllallanll (111ft' 1111*) (pulllllhld 8189) 2228 Rn 1111111 C111 On !MIii) ............................................................ 0IIIWfld Dll'*IG nnr-arm: Impact on 11111111 cart po11cy and lllllldl (lllff 1111*) (pullllnd SIii) Rn lfflllVIIICV fflldcal-*" (pullllnd 12189) 2229 Fldlrll !llpOlm to AIJS; COIIQlllliOnll ._ .............. llldllll,11 Do IIIICll 1ranlmlt Al>S? (sllff paper) (pullllsllld 9'87) AIJS and 1111111 IIIIUIIIICI: an Ga 111MY (staff paper) (publlshld 1188) HcM lfflcll'II II AIJS lducllon? (111111111*) (publlshld 8A8) Impact of Al>S on 1111 Northlm Callfonu Region of Kaiser Pennanentl (staff 1111*) (pullllshld 7/88) 1111 lfflctl-of 1lldng drug lddldlon and 1111 Sl)llld of AIDS virus (staff 1111*) (Slcll 1990) (DTP) How Im Fldlfll man:11 on Al>SMIV dlllm contrtbulld to other flllds? (staff paper) (publllhld4190) PIiar Blair StM Plotlcln StM Plotlcln Joy Dunkartay PIiar Blair WlndlllRetcher JuHIGortl Kitty GIiman TomKaas WlllamKllllr Tony fllnblrg JactcNum Alison Hiss Tld MacDonald t.tkePhillips Ross Gorte Helen Gelband Helen Gelband Hdln Gelband JudyWlgner Denlsl Dougharty 8al111Powlr Marta Hewitt Mirta Hewitt Jani Sisk Jani Sisk .a Edin Jani Sisk .mEdln Phone No. 8-6280 8-6275 8-6275 8-6267 8-6260 8-6352 8-6354 8-6353 8-6'430 8-6434 8-6429 8-&MS 8-6516 8~518 8-6521 8-6520 8-6590 8-6590 8-6590 8-6590 8-6590 H590 H590 8-6590 H590 8-6590 8-6590 8-6590 8-6590

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-19-I. E. Third Quarter 1990: Legislation Assigning Responsibilities to OTA H.R. 3 Passed by the Senate April 24, 1990 An Act to authorize appropriations to expand Head Start programs and programs carried out under the Elementary and Secondary Education Act of 1965 to include child care services, and for other purposes. Requires the Secretary of Health and Human Services to consult with OTA in preparation of a national study on child care standards. H.R. 4443 Introduced April 3, 1990 A bill to promote economic development in sub-Saharan Africa and the Caribbean Would require OTA to produce a report on AID's administration of the Act within 3 years of enactment. H.R. 4528 Introduced April 18, 1990 A bill to promote the conservation and enhancement of wetlands and to offset or prevent the loss of wetlands. Would require OTA to conduct a study of all incentives under law for protection and management of wetlands, modifications to federal law to improve their effectiveness, and ways to encourage state and local governments protect wetlands, and to deliver it within a year of enactment. H.R. 4636 Reported in the House April 26, 1990 (failed of Passage in House; but see to S. 2364) A bill to authorize supplemental economic assistance for fiscal year 1990 to support democracy in Panama and Nicaragua, and for other purposes. Would require OTA to conduct an evaluation of the performance of the Agency for International Development in carrying out the Act and make a report to Congress within 3 years of enactment. H.R. 4715 Introduced May 2, 1990 A bill to provide for the formation of an industry run, Government chartered, nonprofit corporation for research, development, and manufacturing activities in the strategic high technology sector, and for other purposes.

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-20Would require OTA, in consultation with GAO, to submit to the Congress and the President a report detailing the range of alternative traditional and innovative assistance options that could be available to the Technology Corporation of America, along with an assessment of the desirability of each such option, within one year of enactment. H.R. 4864 Introduced May 17, 1990 A bill to amend the Public Health Service Act to establish and coordinate research programs for osteoporosis and related bone disorders, and for other purposes. Would require the OTA Director to appoint members of the Advisory Panel on Osteoporosis and Related Disorders. S. 1630 Passed the Senate May 23, 1990 A bill to amend the Clean Air Act Requires the Administrator of EPA with the participation of OTA to study whether or not further reductions in emissions from passenger cars and lightduty trucks should be required. S. 2364 Passed the House May 24, 1990 An Act to authorize supplemental economic assistance to support democracy in Panama, Nicaragua, and sub-Saharan Africa, and for other purposes (do pass with the following Amendment): Would require OTA, within 3 years of enactment, to evaluate AID's performance in carrying out the act. S. 2614 Introduced May 11, 19.90 A bill to amend the Public Health Service Act to establish and coordinate research programs for osteoporosis and related bone disorders, and for other purposes. Would require the OTA Director to appoint members of the Advisory Panel on Osteoporosis and Related Disorders. S. 2765 Introduced June 21, 1990 A bill to provide for the economic growth and industrial revitalization of the U.S. by establishing tax-exempt industrial recapitalization funds for manufacturing industries, by providing investment and savings incentives, and

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-21-by promoting worker training and research and development, and for other purposes. Would establish a National Technology Policy Coordinating Council on which OTA's Director, or the Director's designee, would serve. References to OTA P.L. 101-280 To make technical changes in the Ethics Reform Act of 1989. Designates the Senate Committee on Ethics as OTA's supervising ethics office for purposes of administering financial disclosure and outside employment requirements of the law. P.L. 101-286 To provide for the establishment of the National Commission on Wildfire Disasters, to provide for increased planning and cooperation with local fire fighting forces in the event of forest fires, and for other purposes. Calls for OTA and the other congressional support agencies to assist the Commission, with information, staff, or other services, to the extent possible. H.R. 3030 House incorporated this measure in S.1630 as an amendment May 23, 1990 To amend the Clean Air Act Calls for OTA to cooperate with GAO's efforts to conduct a yearly report on the incremental human health and environmental benefits, and incremental costs beyond current clean air requirements of the new control strategies and technologies required by the act. S. 29 Placed on the Senate Calendar April 20, 1990 A bill to provide for a 2-year Federal budget cycle, and for other purposes. Would require OTA and the other congressional support agencies to provide assistance to standing committees of the House and Senate in carrying out their responsibilities.

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-22-S. 1224 Reported June 11, 1990 A bill to amend the Motor Vehicle Information and Cost Savings Act States that, "[OTA] and [DOE] agree that increased fuel efficiency is possible utilizing currently available technology and without significant changes in the size mix or performance of the fleet. With maximum use of conventional technologies, it is estimated by various experts that the fuel economy of the entire new car fleet could range from 33 to 38 miles per gallon by 1995." S.J.Res. 57 Referred to House Committee August 2, 1989 A joint resolution to establish a national policy on permanent papers. "Whereas some publishers such as the National Historical Publications and Records Commission, the Library of Congress, and many university presses are already publishing on acid free permanent papers, and the Office of Technology Assessment has estimated that only 15 to 25 percent of the books currently being published in the United States are printed on such paper;" Congressional Record, May 8, 1990, El427 Representative Schuette introduced legislation to amend the Low Level Radioactive Waste Policy Act of 1980 and cited OTA's report, as having reported that the volume of radioactive waste generated in this country has been reduced by half in the past decade and is expected to further decline. Congressional Record, June 25, 1990, H4119 Representative Luken introduced the Waste Reduction Act citing OTA's 1986 and 1987 reports on waste reduction to the effect that, "[OTA] projected that source reduction techniques using existing technology could reduce waste currently generated by as much as 50 percent over the next 5 years. Furthermore, OTA concluded that a modest Federal investment in waste reduction information collection and a grant program to the States for technical assistance to aid industry would more than pay for itself in a few years." Mr. Wolpe also cited OTA's reports.

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-23-I. F. New Assessments Approved During the Quarter Approved at TAB meeting May 10, 1990 Technology Opportunities for Economic Conversion Managing the Nation's Defense Industrial Strength in a Changing Security Environment Technological Change and Global Competition in Intellectual Property Protection for Computer Software Approved at TAB meeting June 28, 1990 U.S. Energy Efficiency: Past Trends and Future Opportunities Evaluation of the Oregon Medicaid Proposal Home Intravenous and Immunosuppressive Drug Therapies Under the Medicare Program

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Publication Briefs

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OTA Report Brief April 1990 Access to Space: The Future of U.S. Space Transportation Systems Legislative Options for Space Transportation Space Program Futures Congress could choose to support the development of one or more of many different types of space transportation systems. To determine which of these alternatives is most appropriate, Congress must first make some broad decisions about the future of the United States in space. A commitment to key space program goals will entail a similar commitment to one or more launch systems. If Congress wishes to: Then it should: Limit the expansion of NASA and DoD space programs: Develop the capability to launch smalland inter mediate-size payloads quickly and efficiently to support.DoD and civilian needs: Deploy Space Station Freedom by the end of the century, while maintain ing an aggressive NASA science program: Continue trend of launch ing heavier communications, navigation, and surveillance satellites and/or pursue an aggressive Strategic Defen sive Initiative test program: Deploy a full-scale space based ballistic missile de fense system and/or dramatically increase the num ber and kind of other military space activities: Establish a permanent base on the Moon or send humans to Mars: Maintain existing launch systems and limit expenditures on future development options. Current capabilities are adequate to supply both NASA and DoD if the present level of U.S. space activities is maintained. Continue to support the development of small and intermediate capacity launch systems. The U.S. private sector has the financial and technical capacity to develop such systems on its own if a market for launching small payloads exists. Continue funding improvements to the Space Shuttle and other existing space transportation systems and/or begin developing Shuttle-C: The existing Space Shuttle can launch the Space Station, but will do so more effectively with improvements or the assistance of a Shuttle-C. Although Shuttle-C might not be as economical as other new cargo vehicles at high launch rates, it would be competitive if only a few heavy-lift missions are required each year. Commit to the development of a new cargo vehicle for use early in the 21st century. Although existing launch systems could be expanded to meet such growth in payload weight, if demand is high, new, advanced systems would be more reliable and cost-effective. Commit to the development of a new cargo vehicle such as the Advanced Launch System. Current launch systems are neither sufficiently economical to support full-scale space-based ballistic missile defense deployment, nor reliable enough to support a dramatically increased military space program. Commit to the development of a new cargo vehicle(s) (Shuttle-C, Advanced Launch System, or other system) and continue funding advanced, crew-carrying launch systems. Any major initiative beyond the Space Station involving humans in space will require new launch systems. The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress. OTA's basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. John H. Gibbons, Director.

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Improving U.S. Space Transportation Systems Whichever broad program goals are selected, if Congress wishes to continue to improve the safety, reliability, performance, and/ or economy of U.S. launch systems, it has a number of possibilities from which to choose. Several are listed below; they are not mutually exclusive, nor is the list exhaustive. Congress could decide to proceed with one or more from each list of options. Because of the long lead times for the development of space transportation systems, some decisions will have to be made in the next year or two. Others can wait until the middle of this decade or later. If Congress wishes to: Improve cargo launch system reliability or performance: Improve Space Shuttle sys tem safety, reliability: Maintain a sustainable Shut tle launch rate of 9 to 11 launches per year: Reduce risks to successful Space Station assembly: Develop the technology base and plan for building new crew-carrying launch systems: Provide for emergency crew return from the Space Station: If Congress wishes to: Build safer, more reliable crew-carrying launch systems: Improve cargo launch system reliability and reduce costs: Increase operability: Near-Tenn Decisions Then it could: Fund development of technologies in the Advanced lAunch System and other programs. Fund development of Liquid-fueled Rocket Boosters (LRBs). Fund continued development and improvement of Advanced Solid Rocket Motors (ASRMs) and alternate turbopumps fur the Space Shuttle Main Engines. Fund installation of built-in test equipment in the Shuttle and more automated test equipment in launch facilities. Fund the purchase of at least one additional orbiter to be delivered as soon as possible (1996), and direct NASA to reduce the number of Shuttle flights planned per year. NASA could reduce Shuttle flights by: a. postponing or cancelling some planned Shuttle launches; or b. relying more on cargo-only launch vehicles, such as Titan IVs. Direct NASA to develop and use Shuttle-C to carry some Space Station elements to orbit. (This would reduce the total number of flights required.) Continue to fund planning and technology development and test effurts such as: a. the Advanced Manned lAunch System studies; b. the National Aero-Space Plane program (NASP); or c. the Advanced Launch System (ALS) program. Fund a program to develop a U.S. crew emergency return vehicle. Support joint development with Space Station partners of vehicle fur emergency return. Far-Tenn Decisions Then it could: Fund development of safer, more reliable launch systems to augment or succeed the Shuttle. These might include: a. a Personnel lAunch System (PLS), or b. an Advanced Manned lAunch System (AM.LS), or c. vehicles derived from the National Aero-Space Plane (NASP) program. Fund development of launch vehicles or systems (e.g., ALS engines) that could be manufactured, integrated, and launched /Jy highly automated methods with improved process control. Fund development of vehicles designed for quick turnaround, such as those considered fur an Advanced Manned lAunch System or possible successors to the proposed National Aero-Space Plane test vehicle (X-30). Copies of the OTA report, "Access to Space: The Future of U.S. Space Transportation Systems," llrt! aoailable from the Supmntendent of Documents, U.S. Gm,ermnent Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402-9325; (202) 783-3238. The GPO stock number is 052--003.01177-8; the price is $4.75. Copies of the report for congressional use are az;,ailable by calling 4-9241. Non-congressional requests for the report can be ordered from the U.S. Gm,ernment Printing Office or for further information, co,itact OTA's Publications Office. Address: OTA, U.S. Congress, 'Mlshington, DC 20510-8025; (202) 224-8996.

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OTA Report Brief May 1990 High-Temperature Superconductivity in Perspective No scientific discovery during the 1980s generated more excitement-and hype-than that of high-temperature superconductivity (HTS) in 1986. By early 1987, it was widely predicted that the new materials would revolutionize everything from elec tronics to energy production, and this touched off a worldwide explosion of research and development activity. The United States was seen to be in a heated race with Japan to translate this scientific discovery into commercial products. In 1990, a more realistic view has taken hold. Although progress in research has certainly been encouraging, this new kind of superconductivity is still not m1derstood, and most observers agree that it will be a decade or more before HTS can become economically important. In the meantime, the more mature low-temperature superconductors (ll'S) will be the only feasible option for applications such as magnetically-levitated transportation (maglev), elec tric power generators, and large-scale integrated circuits. Superconductors are materials that lose all resis tance to the flow of electric current when cooled below a critical transition temperature (Tc). In principle, superconductors can be used in a wide variety of applications, e.g., to make electric power production more efficient, or to make computers smaller and faster. But Wltil 1986, the highest Tc that had been observed was only 23 K (-418 F), requir ing that superconductors be cooled with liquid helium-impractical for many commercial applica tions. With the advent of HTS, superconducting devices could for the first time operate in a cheaper and more accessible temperature range, cooled with liquid nitrogen at 77 K (-321 F). The U.S. Competitive Position in HTS The Federal HTS R&D budget grew to an estimated $130 million in FY 1989, substantially larger than the government funding for HTS in any other com1try (see table 1). As a result, the United States currently has a research program that is second to none. But despite a creditable Federal effort so far, there is a serious question as to whether U.S. Table 1-Estlmated National High-Temperature Superconductivity R&D Efforts in Various Countries, 1989 Country United States ............ Japan ................. .. West Germany .......... France .................. United Klngdom .......... Italy .................... Netherlands ............. Soviet Union ............. China ................... Government HTS budget (millions) $130 >70 35 30 20 >15 >2 SOURCE: Office of Technology Assessment, 1990. Full-time researchers (all sectors) 1,000 1,200 500 300 200 200 <100 2,000 1,000 companies have the staying power to capitalize on it. An OTA survey revealed that: Japanese companies invested at least 50 percent more in HTS R&D ($107 million) than U.S. companies ($74 million) in 1988, and their investment in L'IS R&D was three times larger (see figure 1). 20 Japanese companies were spending more than $1 million of their own funds on HTS, compared with 14 in the United States. Among these big spenders, the Japanese companies had broader superconductivity pro grams-both in terms of types of materials being developed, and the scope of research. Japanese firms reported more resources de voted to basic research than did U.S. firms. Asked when their company would market its first HTS product, Japanese firms projected a later "first year-to-market" (average year: 2000) than U.S. firms (average year: 1992) in all product categories. The fact that Japanese companies are willing to spend so much on R&D even though the payoff in commercial products is at least 10 years away underscores their long-term commitment to HTS. OTA identifies three key issues that policymakers need to address if the United States is to be competitive in HTS in the future: The Office of Technology Assessment (OfA) is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress. OTA.'s basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes.

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Figure 1--Comparlson of Industrial Superconductivity Research Efforts In the United States and Japan, 1988 Internal R&D funding ($ million) 200~, ______ ....;;_ __________ __, 1110.: I 100 150 O-'---United States Japan HIQhlempwature D Low-temperature eupen:onductlvlty euperconductlvlty In 1988, U.S. industry internal fundng for HTS was about $74 million, with 440 full-time researchers, compared with $107 million and 710 full-time researchers in Japan. NOTE: The data in this figure are adjusted to include OTA's estimate of rNeen::h efforts not captured by this survey. SOURCE: Office at Technology Assessment, 1990. e U.S. companies are investing less than their main foreign competitors in both lowand high-temperature superconductivity R&D. This is by far the most serious problem, and it can only be solved by increasing the supply of patient capital available to U.S. industry. e University research on HTS merits a higher priority than it presently receives. Conversely, Federal laboratories may be receiving a disproportionately large share of the Federal HTS budget. Coordination of the Federal superconductivity R&D effort can be made more effective at the national level. A standing advisory committee of supercon-ductivity experts could assist policymakers in forging a balanced, coordinated program in an era of tight budgets. There is one important point that relates to all of the above issues: funding stability is essential to meaningful progress. In the past, erratic funding both by Federal agencies and companies has caused disruption of superconductivity programs, and has made it difficult to maintain a pool of U.S. engineering knowhow in areas such as superconducting digital electronics, rotating electrical equipment, and maglev systems. Moreover, virtually the entire Federal HTS budget is money taken from promising research areas in other fields. As the initial euphoria over the discovery of HTS wears off and its political visibility is eclipsed by other more urgent priorities, pressures will build to shift funds away to other projects. HIS remains a promising field, but it has become a test case-not so much of the United States' ability to commercialize a new technology rapidly-but rather of its ability to look beyond the immediate future and sustain a consistent public and private R&:D effort over the long term. Copies of the OTA report, "High-Temperature Superconduc tivity in PerspectiDe," are ll1Jllilable frum the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, T;\bshington, DC 20402-9325 (202) 783-3238. The GPO stock number is 052--003~1187-5; the price is $6.S0. Copies of the report fur congressional use are available by calling 4-9241. Non-congressional requests for the report can be ordered frum the U.S. Government Printing Office or for further information, contact OTA' s Publications Office. Address: OTA, U.S. Congress, v\bshington, DC 20510-8025; (202) 224-8996.

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@ OTA Report Brief July 1990 Physical Vulnerability of Electric Systems to Natural Disasters and Sabotage Destruction of critical electric system equipment by sabotage, earthquakes, or hurricanes could cause widespread power outages. Major metropolitan areas and even multi-state regions could lose virtually all power if three to eight key facilities are damaged. In most cases, however, at least partial power could be restored in a matter of hours. If a large amount of equipment has been destroyed, full restoration could take many months. In the interim, customers would be faced with frequent, short-term blackouts and voltage reductions. The economic and social costs of blackouts are very high. The 1977 blackout in New York City and Westchester County was estimated to cost almost $300 million even though it lasted only 25 hours. Impacts include lost production and sales, damaged equipment and data, and public health and safety threats. Even if no blackouts occur, damage to a transmission network that isolate the most economical generating plants will result in much higher power costs (several hundred thousand dollars per day for each large nuclear or coal plant idled). Utilities and the Government are working on reducing vulnerability, but these efforts could be accelerated. Measures such as improved coordina tion and emergency planning need not cost much. Protecting key facilities and establishing a stockpile of transformers would be more expensive, but such investments would still prove worthwhile if they prevent massive damage or speed recovery. No large scale attacks on electric systems have occurred in the United States. Other countries have suffered much worse and more frequent damage. Terrorist attacks in this country have not been a major problem over the past decade, but that could change rapidly. Terrorists could select electric sys tems as targets if they want to cause substantial economic disruption. Efficient selection of targets would require more sophistication than has yet been shown by terrorist groups in the United States, but the required information and expertise are availa ble. The most problematic sites can be protected against casual attacks or would-be intruders who are deterred by barriers, detection systems, and alarms. The initial cost would be a few percent of the replacement cost of the facility. Protection against a large, sophisticated attack would be extremely expensive and not necessarily very effective. Even if key facilities are protected, there is little that can be done to protect transmission lines against a saboteur with a high power rifle. It is easy to destroy insulators on a transmission tower or the line itself. Such damage can be repaired quickly, but the saboteur can repeat it even more quickly else where. Keeping transmission lines down for long periods would have the same effect as destroying substations. Natural disasters also can have a devastating effect on electric systems, but of a more random nature. Hurricanes affect distribution systems much more than generation and transmission. Restoration may be a monumental task, but replacement parts are readily available, and utilities are experienced. However, the lingering, local blackouts following hurricane Hugo demonstrated that greater efforts (planning, stockpiling, arrangements for emergency crews, etc.) may be warranted. Earthquakes are capable of destroying generation and transmission equipment that could take months or years to replace. However, it is unlikely that an earthquake would destroy more than a few key pieces of equipment except in potentially seismically active regions in the Midwest and the East where utilities have not built facilities to the same standards as in California. Large transformers are particularly critical be cause of their vulnerability to sabotage and the difficulty of replacing them. Few spares are nor mally available. Design and manufacture of replacements usually require over a year. If several major substations are lost for this long, the economic losses could total billions of dollars. The recovery period could be greatly reduced if more spares can be made The Office of Technology Assessment (OIA) is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress. OIA's basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes.

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available. One way would be to use those spares utilities normally consider necessary for their own reliability but which are not actually in service at the moment. Legislation to relieve utilities of liability over potential blackouts resulting from the absence of this equipment may be necessary. Alternatively, a stockpile of at least the most common transformers could be established. A stockpile might entail initial costs about of $100-200 million for the step-down transformers used to lower transmission voltage for use on a distribution network. The transformers at generating stations would be more difficult to share or stockpile because of the varieties of voltages and physical layouts for the high current connector from the generator. Manu facture of these transformers (or of non-standard step-downs) could be reduced to about six months by using pre-existing designs and stockpiled materi als. Normally, replacement transformers are custom designed for a particular application and to take advantage of improvements in the state-of-the-art. The use of suboptimal transformers, whether stock piled or manufactured generically, would entail a long-term loss in efficiency that would be quite expensive. Using stockpiled, standard materials (special copper wire, core steel and porcelain) could also result in a suboptimal transformer. Hence these transformers would be used only to expedite power operations while custom-designed transformers are being produced. Copies of the report for congressional use are available by ailling 4-9241. Copies of the report for non-congressional use ain be ordered from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Gaoernment Printing Office, TAilshington, DC 20402-9325 (202) 783-3238. The GPO stock number for the OTA report, "Physical Vulnerability of Electric Systems to Natural Disaster and Sabotage," is 052-003-01197-2. The price is $3.50. For further in{orrnlltian contact OTA' s Publicatians Office. Address: OTA, U.S. Congress, TAilshington, DC 20510-8025 (202) 224-8996.

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(@ OTA Report Brief May 1990 Arming Our Allies: Cooperation and Competition in Defense Technology New security and economic relations are rapidly supplanting the established order of the Cold War period. The future of NATO and the Warsaw Treaty Organization is clouded, as are the evolving political systems of Eastern Europe, the Soviet Union, and future superpower relations. What is certain is that the reasons the United States collaborated with its allies in defense technology are not as valid as they once were, and U.S. policies on armaments cooper ation ought to be reconsidered. The United States transferred military technology to its allies, both in Europe and in Asia, to build up their military capabilities for mutual defense against the Soviet Union and other communist powers. That policy succeeded. In a few decades it contributed to the development of sophisticated centers of defense technology among our allies across Western Europe and in the Western Pacific. The policy also led to both significant peacetime overcapacity in the defense industries worldwide and to intense international competition for sales of high-technology weapons. Superiority in military technology over potential adversaries has been the explicit foundation of U.S. national security policy for 40 years. Continuing U.S. technological leadership has been implicit in that policy. That superiority is declining, in part because of our efforts to assist our allies. The loss of technological supremacy may be an unavoidable long-term cost of maintaining strong security alliances. It could also be the price of gaining access to foreign defense technology in the future. Cooperation in defense techology is accelerating this process and helping to undermine the U.S. national security posture of designing and fielding defense systems at least a generation ahead of the competi tion. However, the changing nature of the military threat makes this an appropriate time to reevaluate our basic national security strategies and goals. If tensions associated with trade and technology competition between the United States and Japan continue to escalate, the traditional separation between economic affairs and U.S.-Japan security affairs probably cannot be maintained. This became evident in the controversy over the transfer of F-16 fighter technology to assist Japan in building its new fighter aircraft, the FSX. For the first time, military and trade issues were intertwined in an open, and sometimes acrimonious, public debate. It became clear in the course of this debate that the U.S. Government lacks a coordinated policy or institu tional mechanism by which to address specific cases like the FSX, or to resolve general questions arising from armaments collaboration with its allies. In Europe, maintaining cohesion within the NATO Alliance has always been a balancing act, even in the face of a common threat from the East. Collaboration with our Allies in military technology has had important political benefits. But as the 1986 Nunn-Roth Warner amendment programs have demonstrated, a codevelopment involving many governments is difficult to bring to a successful conclusion. As the perception of the Soviet threat to Western Europe diminishes, perhaps in concert with conventional force (CFE) reductions now being negotiated in Vienna, the military, economic, and political interests of the United States and its European NATO Allies may diverge significantly. Such divergence may well be exacerbated by increased competition between the U.S. and European defense industries for shrinking defense fund ing. U.S. defense exporters look to European mar kets as a safety valve against anticipated steep declines in the U.S. defense budget, and European firms seek to further penetrate the U.S. defense market, which is still by far the largest and most profitable in the world. International collaboration among defense companies appears to be increasing at a time when transatlantic intergovernmental cooperation in defense technology has become increasingly problematic. Interdependence of the United States for access to the best defense technology is fast becoming a fact of life. Concurrently, competition between U.S. and European defense companies will escalate as they seek to export sophisticated weaponry to maintain revenues and keep production facilities open in a declining market. As U.S. influence over European military sales to the Third World decreases, differ ences in the political and economic interests of the The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress. OTA's basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes.

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United States and its NATO Allies will become more important It is possible, for example, that the United States will need to project power against forces that have weapons from a variety of Euro pean sources. In that case, the United States will have to design its weapons systems to match European standards, and the question of what defense technology is transferred to Europe will become crucial. The interests of the U.S. Government and its defense companies may differ in important respects. Large U.S. companies that can operate internation ally are entering into strategic market alliances and other business arrangements with European and Asian firms, transferring U.S. technology and sub contracting with foreign supplies for portions of U.S. weapons systems. Although defense collaboration can make business sense for individual companies, it may ultimately create unacceptable dependence on foreign suppliers, erode parts of the U.S. defense industrial base, and undermine U.S. foreign policy goals. International collaboration also gives the Department of Defense access to foreign defense technology that may be superior to that produced in the United States. Extensive procurement from foreign suppliers, however, coupled with a failure to support U.S. sources, could damage domestic de fense companies. But a policy that guaranteed domestic sourcing from particular companies (or for a specific technology) would, in time, degrade domestic capability because there would be no foreign competition and, therefore, less incentive to innovate and to make investments in R&D. As defense companies restructure their opera tions in response to overcapacity and declining defense budgets, there will be some winners and many losers. The United States could end up with a defense industrial structure inadequate for the defense of the Nation. But it is also possible that the United States will not need anything approaching the level of defense industrial capacity that it has built up over the past three decades. The challenge will be to convert the defense industries to an appropriate peacetime posture and still retain the capacity to mobilize in a crisis. Copies of the report for cangressional use are available by calling 4-9241. Copies of the report for non-congressional use can be ordered from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, v\bshington, DC 20402-9325 (202) 783-3238. The GPO stock number for the OTA report, "Arming Our Allies: Cooperation and Competition in Defense Technowgy," is 052-003-01189-1. The price is $5.00. For further information cantad OTA's Publications Office. Address: OTA, U.S. Congress, v\bshington, DC 20510-8025 (202) 224-8996.

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OTA Report Brief April 1990 N eurotoxicity: Identifying and Controlling Poisons of the Nervous System Neurotoxic substances, those chemicals which adversely affect the nervous system, are present in a wide variety of substances to which Americans are exposed at home and in the workplace. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) has reported that millions of U.S. workers are regularly exposed to neurotoxic substances and has identified neurotoxic disorders as one of the Nation's 10 leading causes of work-related disease and injury. In the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) 1989 Toxic Release Inventory, a listing of the most prevalent pollutants released by industry into the environment, 17 of the top 25 substances listed have neurotoxic potential (see figure 1). In addition, a large percentage of the 600 active pesticide ingredients registered with EPA are neurotoxic to varying degrees. The extent of the health risk posed by neurotoxic sub stances, however, has been underestimated in the public consciousness as well as in current regulatory and research frameworks. Symptoms of damage to the nervous system range from impaired movement, anxiety, and confusion to memory loss, convulsions, and death. Effects may be evident immediately, or may not surface for months or years. Oasses of potentially neurotoxic substances include industrial chemicals, foods, food additives, cosmetic ingredients, abused drugs, therapeutic drugs, and naturally occurring substances such as lead and mercury. The adverse effects on health depend heavily on the toxicity of the substance and the degree to which individuals are exposed. Indeed, many substances that have neurotoxic potential appear to be harmless at low doses. Certain groups of individuals, including those with developing and declining nervous systems such as fetuses, children, and the elderly, are more susceptible to the effects of neurotoxic substances than other groups. Recent research findings suggest that the public should be more concerned about the health risk posed by neurotoxic substances. Exposure to small amounts of MPTP, a compound sometimes created during the illicit production of synthetic heroin, has been shown to induce the symptoms of Parkinson's disease (e.g., tremors, loss of muscular control) within 1 to 2 weeks. Evidence also exists that increases in motor neuron disease, primarily amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (Al.S), and Parkinson's Figure 1-Neurotoxic Substances Are Prominent Among the Toxics Release Inventory's Top 25 Chemicals Emitted Into the Air in 1987 Millions of pounds 350 -r--------------------------, 300 250 200 150 L1stldasanturo1oicsuost,1nceov tor nllUfotO~C SllflSlilllctS CJ -.oi11s1eaasa11turotocsuos1nce AM TO hll! AC 1T MK XY CO 01 CH AO ET FA HA TA PA GE NA TE ST BE Ml CL CS SA ....... Am!noni, ro Toluen, l,IE l,l111W101 ~c ~on T 1 1 rncnlOl"Oelnan1 'Ak lffl,r,1 Etl!y( ,C,flont 1.V X.Vllne lrTNH(I ISOITlfflf CD Caroon .)s111ha. JlDicnlOfometnan :H ~Moru,,e ,1,0 .1.1uminum U11ot FAFreon113 >1A '""-,Orocnionc At10 rA r11cn!OfMlnv~A ~gyitnt ~E IJl'fCQI l:trli,r1 'IA 'H3uty! A1cono1 re r,1racnt0roecnv1tnt ST Styrent 3Eenzen, \It -.. .. inv1 1 soaurv1 ~e1011e :L CnlOfOform :s :.uoonv1 S11mo, SA S111!1.1ric At10 I I SOURCES: Data obtained from W.K. Anger and B.L. Johnson, "Chemicals Affecting Behavior, Neurotoxicity of Industrial and Commercial Chemicals, vol. 1, J.L O'Donoghue (ed.) (Boca Raton, FL: CAC Press, 1985), tables 1 and 2, pp. 70-141; TSCA sec. 4, 52 FA 31445; TSCA sec. 4, 53 FA 5932; 54 FA 13470; 54 FA 13473; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Pesticides and Toxic SUbstances, The Toxics Release Inventory: A National Perspective, 1987, EPA 560/4-89-006 (Washington, DC: 1989). The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress. OTA' s basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes.

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disease in the elderly over the past two decades may be due to environmental agents. Thus, the development of some neurological or psychiatric disorders is linked to toxic agents in the environment. Recent studies indicate that thousands of infants are suffering permanent neurological damage due to drug abuse by their mothers. Babies born to mothers who abuse cocaine may suffer abnormal development of the nervous system, impaired motor skills and reflexes, and seizures. Indications that neurotoxic substances may adversely affect intellectual development in children are particu larly troubling. Exposure to lead during early childhood is associated with lower vocabulary and grammatical skills, poorer hand-eye coordination, and lower class standing in high school Even a drug such as phenobarbi tal, frequently prescribed to young children to prevent seizures, may interfere with cognitive development. Current Research and Regulatory Efforts Neurotoxicity research and testing programs are conducted primarily at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Administration (ADAMHA), the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), and the Food and Drug Administra tion (FDA). In some cases, neurotoxicity programs within these agencies have been expanded as a result of in creased concern, but in general Federal programs are of insufficient size and scope to address the problems created by neurotoxic substances. NIH expenditures on neurotoxicology-related research in fiscal year 1988 (excluding projects related to alcoholism and cigarette smoking) totaled approximately $33 million. This figure is 0.5 percent of the total NIH research budget. The number of substances that pose a significant risk to public health and the extent of that risk are Wt.known because the potential neurotoxicity of only a small number of chemicals has been adequately evaluated. Yet the costs of greater testing for neurotoxicity may be small compared to the costs of caring for those injured by neurotoxic chemicals, workers' compensation claims, and litigation resulting from injury. For example, an EPA report estimated that the total health benefits of reducing the neurotoxic effects of lead on U.S. children would amount to more than $500 million annually between 1986 and 1988 alone. The major regulatory programs addressing public exposure to neurotoxic substances include the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) and the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA), admini stered by EPA; the Federal Food Drug, and Cosmetic Act (FFDCA), administered by FDA; and the Occupational Safety and Health Act (OSH Act), administered by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration. TSCA regulates chemicals used in commerce in the United States; FIFRA regulates pesticides; FFDCA regulates food additives, drugs, and cosmetics; and the OSH Act sets standards for contaminants in the workplace. These laws address the majority of toxic substances, but more than a dozen additional acts focus on other substances or sources of exposure. OTA found that Federal programs are of insufficient size and scope to adequately address the problems created by neurotoxic substances. The Federal response is fragmented by differences in scientific judgment and inconsistent regulatory activities. The programs of some agencies require routine testing of all chemicals submitted for review while the programs of other agencies must establish some probability of unacceptable risk before the manufacturer can be required to submit data. Neurotoxic potential is difficult to predict, and any regulatory scheme that does not routinely test for neurotoxicity may offer insufficient protection. In addition, OTA found that Federal research and regulatory programs are not well coordinated. Representatives from several Federal agen cies met at an OTA/EPA sponsored workshop in the spring of 1989 and took initial steps to organize a Federal Interagency Committee on Neurotoxicology to foster increased interaction among Federal agencies responsible for research and regulatory programs. Federal regulations contain provisions exempting certain U.S. products prepared for export from the requirements that apply to products sold for use in the United States. In particular, pesticide manufacturers can legally export banned, severely restricted, or never-registered substances that cannot be sold in the United States. Sometimes these pesticides are used on food crops that are imported back into the United States, completing what may be termed a "circle of poison." Congresssional Policy Options If Congress chooses to take action, it could encourage more research in neurotoxicology and further control the extent of public exposure to neurotoxic substances. Specific policy issues relate to the following: the Federal regulatory framework, Federal research efforts, interagency coordination of Federal research and regulatory programs, Federal education policies and programs for ensuring an adequate number of research and health care professionals to address neurotoxicity con Cen'IS, the adequacy of information received by workers and the public to make informed decisions about exposure to neurotoxic substances, and international regulatory and research programs related to neurotoxic substances. Cqpies of the OTA report, "Neurotoricity; Identifying and Controlling Poisans of the Neroous System," are llTJailable from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, 'Nzshington, DC 20402-9325;(202) 783-3238. The GPO stoclc number is 052--003--01184-1; the price is $15.00. Copies of the report for congressional use are llTJailable by calling 4-9241. Summaries of reports are llTJailable at no charge from the Office of Technology Assessment. Non-congressional requests for the report can be ardered from the U.S. Government Printing Office or for further information, contact OTA's Publications Office. Address: OTA, U.S. Congress, Washington, DC 20510-8025; (202) 224-8996.

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OTA Report Brief May 1990 Agricultural Approaches To Reduce Agrichemical Contamination of Groundwater Reports of groundwater contamination by agrichem icals have increased over the last two decades: to date, 46 different pesticides have been found in groundwater in 26 States and nitrate contamination is much more common. Fifty percent of the U.S. population uses groundwater for drinking water, 40 percent of imgation water agroecosystems. Agriculture can be characterized by its inherent diversity and thereby presents a variety of obstacles to the easy prevention of groundwater contamination from agricultural practices. Technological opportunities exist to reduce agrichem ical contamination from both point and nonpoint sources.Point-source con trols focus largely on techdraws from groundwa-ter supplies, and the move ment of water between subsurface and surface bodies raises implications for broader environmental contamination. Considerable uncertainty exists about the extent and implications of agrichemical contamination of groundwater. Substantial concern has arisen because groundwater is largely beyond the reach of remedial ac tions and contamination is essentially irreversi ble. It is important, then, to prevent contaminants from entering groundwater. Mitigating agrichem ical contamination will depend on design and adoption of innovative technologies,management practices, and farming methods. No simple formula to reduce groundwater contamination is likely to be appropriate for all agricul-tural production systems. Definitions An agrichemical is any chemical compound ap plied in agriculture with intent to enhance plant productivity or to prevent loss of productivity caused by disease or by pests, or a byproduct of agricultural production (e.g., byproducts from live stock manures or crop residues, pesticide rinsate). Only nitrate and certain categories of pesticides are believed to be signi.ficant groundwater contami nants. An agroecosystem refers to the blend of physio chemical and ecological parameters as modified by agronomic practices. Groundwater is water stored below the land's surface in saturated soils and rock formations. Groundwater is not necessarily drinking water, nor is it necessarily suitable for other uses due to naturally high salinity or low withdrawal volumes. Therefore, in some cases, agrichemical contamina tion of groundwater may have little immediate impact on current groundwater uses, but may preclude future use as the demand for groundwater changes or as the contaminants migrate into drinking water sources. Groundwater contamination refers to the measura ble presence of an agrichemical or its breakdown products in groundwater, regardless of the level of concentration or the current or projected uses of the water. Thus, it does not necessarily imply the existence or absence of a threat to human health or the environment. niques to improve agri chemical handling such as: 1) improving on-farm agrichemical storage, mixing, loading, and residue disposal methods; and 2) improving livestockwaste management. Re d uction of nonpoint sources of contamination, such as normal .field application of agrichemicals, is far less simple. Improving nonpointsource control may be achieved through enhanced agrichemical ef ficacy and application ef ficiency to reduce the amount, mobility, toxic ity, and persistence of applied chemicals. Selective use and timing of applications also holds promise for reducing groundwater contamination potential. Additionally, nonchemical methods exist to control pests and supply plant nutri-ents (e.g., pest-resistant crops, biological pestcontrol, crop rotations). Agroecosystems and farming systems are complex and vary greatly across U.S. agricultural regions; and producers are disparate in terms of personal goals, skills, and motivations. Similarly, impacts from agricultural practices vary significantly among However, such opportunities commonly require more sophisticated operations and intensive management efforts. Ad.option of technologies and farming systems that reduce potential agrichemical contamination of The Office of Technology Assessment (ar.A) is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress. OI'A's basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes.

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groundwater largely depends on effective informa tion delivery and technical assistance programs designed with an understanding of the factors influencing producers' decisions. Although eco nomic factors are key in defining what is financially possible, a variety of personal, social, and environmental factors also shape decisionmaking. Commercial fertilizers and pesticides have been widely accepted given their time, labor, and productivity benefits; alternatives to their use likely will have to impart similar benefits. Organizations at all levels of govemmentCongress, Federal, State, and local-and the private sector are or could become involved in groundwater protection through various regulations, policies, and programs that affect a farmer's choice of agricultural technology. Actions to gain needed knowledge, to develop technologies with potential to reduce contamination, and to increase adoption of such technologies already are underway. However, interrelationships among these institutions seem likely to hinder development of an integrated, comprehensive approach to reducing agri~emical contamination of groundwater or to reducmg the adverse impacts of agriculture on the environment. Policymakers might first focus on the institutions involved, and then on the actions of tho~ institu tions. This will involve reconsidering institutional roles and goals, and aiming policies and programs in directions specifically designed to reduce poten tial contamination. Because losses of agrichemicals to the environment represent lost investments as well as potential costs to society, reduction of "waste" in agricultural production may provide an organizing principle for directing program efforts. Transition to a productive, waste-minimizing agriculture likely will require national attention to agrichemical management and potentially substantial changes in traditions and practices in hydrogeol ogically vulnerable areas. Modifying agricultural production systems and practices to reduce waste without generating unintended adverse impacts will require considerable knowledge on the part of policymakers, researchers, and practitioners. Be cause of the extent of site, farming system, and farm variability, developing the knowledge base on which decisions will be made likely will require substantial and long-term investments in data collection, infor mation management, research, and education and extension programs. Prevailing production schemes are highly influ enced by Federal agricultural policies and programs, creating certain incentives and disincentives A Strategic Approach for Protection of Groundwater From Agrichemical Contamination 1. Clarify institutional roles and establish clear goals for integration of agricultural production and environmental quality. 2. Build the knowledge base to support improved decisionmaking on agriculture, agrichemical use, and the environment. 3. Redirect Federal agricultural programs to re move disincentives and create incentives to adopt groundwater protection practices. 4. Foster a national effort to reduce agrichemical DUSIIW1agement and waste by agrichemical appli cators. to use of specific technologies or production prac tices. Some of these programs may directly cause intensive agrichemical use, or they may conflict with other programs indirectly leading to inefficient ~e. Modifications in these programs to remove conflicts within and among commodity production, risk reduction, and resource conservation programs may help remove barriers to improved agrichemical management or reduce agrichemical use. A stronger national commitment to reduce agrichem ical mismanagement-improper mixing, inappropriate timing of application, excessive application rates, and mixing or disposal in areas at high risk of contaminating water sources-is needed to help reduce agrichemical contamination of groundwater. This need is in part addressed through applicator training and certification programs, which are required for application of restricted-use pesticides. No similar programs exist for fertilizer applications, n'br are fertilizers regulated in any way by EPA. Inconsistencies in State programs result in highly variable levels of management skills. At this time, only summaries of the OfA report on Agricultural Approaches To &d~e Agrichemical Contami~tion of Groundwater are available. The full report IS scheduled to be published in August 1990. To order copies of summaries for congressional use, call 4-9241. To order copies of the SlllIUI1MY for non-congressional use, contact the U.S. Government Printing Office, Wash ington, D.C. 20402-9325 (202) 783:-3~8. The GPO stock number is 052-003-01191-3. The pnce IS $4.00. For further information contact OTA's Publications Office, U.S. Congress, Washington, D.C. 20510-8025 (202) 224-8996.

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Selected News Clips on OTA Publications and Activities The following is a representative sample (about 2.5 percent) of the clippings received during the last quarter. These clippings refer to 26 different OTA publications. Members of Congress participated in the public release of 9 of the 10 publications issued this quarter. OTA ASSESSMENT REPORTS Physical Vulnerability of Electric Systems to Natural Disasters and Sabotage Beneath the Bottom Line: Agricultural Approaches to Reduce Agrichemical Contamination of Groundwater Neurotoxicity: Identifying and Controlling Poisons of the Nervous System Access to Space: The Future of U.S. Space Transportation Systems Arming Our Allies: Competition and Cooperation in Defense Technology High-Temperature Superconductivity in Perspective Indian Adolescent Mental Health Coping With an Oiled Sea: An Analysis of Oil Spill Response Technologies Rebuilding the Foundations: State and Local Public Works Financing and Management Agricultural Research & Technology Transfer Policies for the 1990s Making Things Better: Competing in Manufacturing Critical Connections: Communication for the Future Rural Emergency Medical Services Linking for Learning: A New Course for Education Catching Our Breath: Next Steps for Reducing Urban Ozone Facing America's Trash: What Next for Municipal Solid Waste Book Preservation Technologies OTA TECHNICAL MEMORANDA, BACKGROUND PAPERS, AND OTHER DOCUMENTS The Big Picture: HDTV and High-Resolution Systems Energy Use and the U.S. Economy Recombinant Erythropoietin: Payment Options for Medicare Proposal Pressure in the 1980's: An Indicator of Stress on the Federal Research System How Has Federal Research on AIDS/HIV Disease Contributed to Other Fields? Computer Software & Intellectual Property The Costs and Effectiveness of Cervical Cancer Screening in Elderly Women Advanced Vehicle/Highway Systems and Urban Traffic Problems Biological Effects of Power Frequency Electric and Magnetic Fields

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U.S. Power Vulnerable To Terrorists Multi-State Regions At Risk, Report Says By Thomas W. Lippman w.....-hltSlaff,Wrilar The nation's electric power net work is vulnerable to terrorist attacks that could black out large sections of the country, the congres sional Office of Technology Assessment reported yesterday. The report said what energy ex perts have long known but have been reluctant to discuss for fear of encouraging attacks on the power grid by terrorists or vandals. Sen. John Glenn (D-0hio), who released the report, said one chapter had been withheld "based on objections from the Department of Energy and other security agencies that it pro vided too clear an analysis of bow to damage the power system." "Major metropolitan areas and even multi-state regions could ,Jose virtually, all power" in simultaneous attacks on remote substations and unguarded transmission lines, the report said. In one small area of North Dakota, for example, not far from the Canadian border, transmission lines from six power plants that serve several midwestern cities march across the landscape in unguarded isolation, approachable. t from any direction. Attacks on power pylons and sub stations are standard operations in guerrilla wars such as in El Sal vador, but they have been rare in this country. Earlier this year, how ever, an attack on a transmission line in California cut off power to 92,000 households. Pacific Gas and Electric Co. later offered a reward for information about possible sus pects. No arrests have been made, a company spokesman said yester day. Glenn, chairman of the Govern mental Affairs Committee, said that "no one is advocating a Maginot Line" around electric generation and transmission facilities. But he said the report convinced him that not enough has been done to ensure safety of the powet grid. John J. Easton Jr:.; assistant sec retary for international affairs and energy emergencies, said "govern ment and industry perceive the present risk to be low" anclthat "an existing multi-state sabotage threat has not been identified." 1 He cautioned against Sl)f!:!nding, more money on fences, security guards and standby facilities than the level of threat warrants. But he endorsed efforts by the utilities, some state governments and a fed eral interagency planning group to assess the threat and develop plans for coping with an electricity shut down. He said he agreed with the report's observation that "before ad ditional security measures are ta ken, utilities and [state] utility com missions will have to agree" on how much should be spent and who should bear the cost. ... l t

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""'~ a,~u mvn" ~guu.iiDES MOINES, IOWA D. 210,042 1,t,-JSO JUN l BUfi..lJ~ 1 Our poJ!uteg0~r C The solution to grouUdl.lter mental Geology for the l lution, like the only practical soluIowa Depa_rtment of Natural Re i tion suggested for everything from sources, thinks part of the answer i the drug crisis to unemployment, lies i~ fine-tuning ~se of farm is education. If farmers knew the chemicals through soil tests, better optimum amount of fertilizer neeequipment. and careful <:81ibra~io~. 1 essary for top profits, they It starts with a late-spnng sotl-m1 wouldn't waste money or poison trogen test, Hallberg said. After I wells by dumping on more. the heavy spring rains have passed But determining just how much a~d the com is_ up, a ~ro~r ~aml is enough, and applying that pl!ng of c~mf1elds will 1nd1~te 1 amount where and when it will do with considerable accuracy Just I the most good, isn't that easy. howmuchnit~gens~?ul~beused I Hence too much nitrogen fertilizer for most effective fertilization. is applied, with the ex~ providFine tuning can be equally im-1 ing cheap insurance against low portant in use of pesticides. Both production. Almost inevitably, weeds and insects can develop resome of that excess shows up in sistance to chemical weapons. groundwater, where it can cause That means it takes more to kill severe health problems, even them, unless a new poison is devel death for infants. oped. And heavier applications An 18-member panel of prof esmean more contamination. I sionals assembled by the CongresCareful identification of areas of sional Office of Technology As-infestation can help farmers draw ~s~_e_f.!~~ lf!clu4j~ four Iowans in a bead on their targets so they such varied disciplines as geology aren't wasting so much ammo. and genetics, reports that contamiCrop rotations can help reduce or I nation of the groundwater is "es-wipe out insect pests that can't toll sentially, irreversib_le." The da!'lerate a change of diet. l age can t be eastly or readily But besides the means, farmers undone. The pollutants hang need a motive. That comes from : around until ~hey dissipate naturalpotential dollar savings on chemi-1 ly or lose their potency. cals and avoiding polluting their I "Only an estimated I percent of own water supplies. Evidence such applied farm pesticides reach the as the OT A report on pervasive : de_sired target," the OTA rePort pollution should strengthen th~t I said. That means 99 percent winds motive. The alternative 1s up in places where it doesn't heavy-handed controls on chemi-1 belong, such as in your lemonade. ca) use which should be as un. George Hallberg, supervisor of necessary as they are undesirable. CHEMICAL MARKETING REPORTER NEW YORK, NY WEEKLY 16,000 MAY 28 1990 -1376 fl!!ff_(?ELL'S N, I Groundwater Protection Needs Broader Approach, Study Says (o-). q, \,\ Protection of vft'al US groundwater ventmg chemical contammants from en~erresources requires a broader approach ing groundwate~ r~sources and says _w1~~-. It l od spread concern 1s likely to ca~alyze s1gmf!-t? agncultu_re, as agncu ~ra pr ... u~ cant.changes in traditional agncultural pohhon and env1ronmental quality are mhcies programs and practices. mately and i~extricably linked,''. says~ N~ single tactic to reduce groundwat~r new congressional report on agr1chemi-contamination will be appropriate to all agncal contamination of groundwater. cultural production systems given the variGroundwater contamination, notes Qffice ability among agroecosystems and farming o_f Technology Assessment, refers ~o the ~ressystems, says OT A. "The i~herent features of ence of measurable levels of agnchem1cals US agriculture pose a vanety of obstacles to and does not necessarily imply the existence easy prevention of groundwater contamina or absence of a threat to human health or the tion from agricultural practices," the report environment. notes. Reports of groundwater contamination by However, OTA says a variety of technolo~agrichemicals have increased over the last ical opportunities exist than ca~ reduce ag_n two decades: to date, at least 46 different chemical contamination potential from pomt pesticides have been detected in g~ou~dw~and non point sources. "Such opportunities foter in 26 states and nitrate contammatwn is cus on improving agrichemical handling and far more common, says OTA. efficacy, application efficiency, and encourThe research arm of Congress reports that aging selective use and timing of agricul use of energy-intensive agrichemicals intural inputs and use of nonchemical methods creased 15 percent between 1974 and 1985. In to control pests and supply plant nutrients," 1986, pesticides and commercial fertilizers says the report. were used on approximately 57 percent and 75 percent, respectively, of US farms. OTA states that a stronger national comDespite considerable uncertamt~ abo~t mitment to reducing agrichemical misman the full extent and implications of agnchem1agement and waste is neede~. Because losses cal contamination of groundwater, OTA says of agrichemicals to the env1ronment repre substantial concern exists because groundsent lost investments as well as potential water is largely beyond the reach of remedial costs to society, the report says red~ction of actions and contammat10n 1s essentially irre-"waste" in agricultural productwn can bl provide an organizing pnnc1ple for d1rect~ng vers1 e. The report stresses the importance of preprogram efforts. May 28, 1990 CHEMICAL MARKETING REPORTER (\.__

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Ground-water pollution seen ~.J~~~versibl"~ By GEORGE iTHAN TM R19111W'1 WHlllne!M IVrMu Chief WASHINGTON, D.C. -A new report by a national panel, 9!.,ciq~erts portrays the nation's grolfnd-water :ontamlnation problem in grim terms and emphasizes the complex technical, economic and political barriers to ~ding solutions. The Con'iressional Office of Tecb'!2!.QU,2tvffl..rff~m S P@portlles' agri cultural practices solidly to contami nation of the water supply on which half the nation's residents depend for drinking. Ground water, the report says, "is largely beyond the reach of remedial actions and contamination is essen tially irreversible." Thus, contaminants must be prevented from entering water resources. But this course presents a host of problems which neither Con-' gress nor the Bush administration has begun to effectively address, the report makes clear. OT A, which advises Congress on scientific and technical Issues, as sembled an 18-member panel, includ ing Donald Duvlck, recently retired (_..., WATER Please turn to Page lOA -~ i .,~ .l.i~t,ttt DES MOINES, IOW~ I), 210,042 MAY 31 Pollution of ground _WATER ., Continued from Page One (_, as vice president for r~ch at Pioneer Hi-Bred International: Richard S. Fawcett, a consultant from Hux ley, Ia.; George Hallberg, Iowa state geologist, and Dennis Keeney, direcplied agricultural pesticides reach the desired target," the report says, "implying that nearly 99 percent then may be lost to the environment." Also, it said, there is a lag time in chemicals moving slowly through soil to appear much later in water, there is a lag time in research leading to eftor of the Al~o L~pold Center at fective prevention measures, and Iowa State Untversity. there is a lag time in adoption of such OJA blames much of the pollution practices. of ground-water supplies on wasteful and inefficient application of agricul tural chemicals by commercial applicators and farmers who lack ade quate training. There are no effective national standards for training and testing of .-:hemical applicators, OT A said. and ,~ate rules vary widely. "Only an estimated 1 percent of apThere have been major improve ments in recent years in pesticide ef ficacy, OTA says, but "little advantage is gained in developing and using products with greater efficacy if the smaller amounts applied per acre do not arrive at the target pest." Chemical application equipment and technology have "not kept pace," the report continues, since large farm water in Iowa is-,called irreversible ,,only an estimated 1 percent of "pplied agricultural pesticides reach the desired target .. 1 equipment manufacturers don't conider this to be an important market segme.:it. ... This is despite strong evidence that direct injection of fertilizers and pesticides into the soil shows promise for Improving efficiency, for cutting ,olume and for significantly reducing environmental damage. The ll'Ound-water contamination Office of Technology Assessment report to Congress issue has resulted in increased atten tion focused on agricultural practices by a wide range of environmental, conservation, consumer and scientif ic groups. The House and Senate agriculture committees, in writing a new farm bill, nave moved haltingly to address the problem. The Senate committee bas adopted a plan by Senator Tom Harkin, D-Ia., under which the feder-al government will help farmers de velop management plans calling for more efficient and presumably less use of chemicals. But both committees have rejected calls for a tougher, regulatory ap proach to farm chemical use. Also rejected so far are calls for mandatory gathering of data on farm chemical use and on well-water quality. Yet, only a massive, well co-ordi nated and financed national program of data gathering, education, train ing, research and regulation can offer hope of eventually reducing the level of contamination without damaging crop productivity, the report says. "Prevention or minimization of ground-water contamination from agricultural sources is fraught with barriers," it says. The pollution comes from tens c thousands of points where farr chemicals are used and stored. Cror ping and tillage practices var widely. And what happens to chem cals once they're applied depends t some extent on weather and on tl: environmental and ecological factor peculiar to the site. Also, pest populations go throu~ different cycles, the report notes. "The overarching question beggir answer is how management of wate crops, soil, nutrients and pests can t integrated" to cut pollution witho1 reducing productivity, it says. Because agriculture is so diverse the United States, "no one strategy likely to be adaptable to farms of a types." There is no technologic. "black box" that can be universal adopted.

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---------THE WALL STREET JOURNAf:THURSDAY, MAY IT, 1990 83 U.S. Fails to Adequately Monitor Risks Of Many Toxic Chemicals, Study Finds By KENNETH H. BACON Staff Reporter of THE w ALL STREET JOURNAL WASHINGTON-Despite growing con cern about possible links between exposure to chemicals and degenerative nerve dis eases such as Parkinson's, the U.S. fails to adequately monitor the neurological risks of chemicals used in farms and factories, a congressional study concludes. "Neurotoxic chemicals constitute a ma jor health threat; the social and economic consequences of excessive exposure to them are potentially very large," warns John Gibbons, the director of the Office of Technology Assessment, the congressional research agency that issued the report. The government's current system for testing chemicals and pesticides focuses primarily on determining cancer risks. But "adverse effects on organs and organ systems, particularly the nervous system, may pose an equal or greater threat to public health," the report says. "Conse quently, it is important to devise risk-as sessment strategies to address non-cancer health risks." The impact of toxins on the nervous system can range from dizziness to death. Some recent scientific studies have linked an increased incidence of two degenerative nerve diseases-Parkinson's and amyotro phid lateral sclerosis, commonly known as Lou Gehri.g's disease-to environmental factors. In addition, some researchers speculate that prolonged exposure to some chemicals may help cause Alzheimer's dis ease. But the report stresses that "no link between a toxic chemical and the disease has been conclusively demonstrated." Th~ Environmental Protection Agency, which monitors some 65,000 toxic chemi cals. is currently drafting new neurotoxi city guidelines for pesticides. The Office of Technology Assessment suggests a number' of other steps the government could takeincluding stepped-up research efforts and improved coordination among the EPA, the Food and Drug Administration, the Oc cupational Safety and Health Administra tion and other agencies that regulate pesti cides, industrial chemicals, cosmetics and pharmaceuticals. Increased testing for neurotoxicity could be expensive for industry. The OTA calculates that it could boost currently re quired testing costs by as much as 240%. Such increases wouldn't have a large im pact on the already high costs of developing new drugs and pesticides, but it could significantly boost the costs-and therefore reduce innovation-of developing low-vol ume, specialty industrial chemicals, the report says. Over the last six years, both Congress and regulatory agencies ha 'le grown more concerned about the impact of toxins on the nervous system. The OT A report, which is entitled "Neurotoxicity: Identify ing and Controlling Poisons of the Nervous System," is likely to stimulate more activ ity In that area. "It's time we develop new tests for neurotoxicity, promote research Into the causes and treatments of neurotoxic effects, and use our regulatory pro grams to reduce human and environmental exposure to neurotoxic chemicals," says Rep. Robert Roe (0., N.J. ), chairman of the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology. fr{JfVJ ; 1/4~ ?rtss o/11 Sjl'lj9e:-' I ax control of toXIDS a health 'gamble' By Tim Friend USA TODAY Mllllons of people are ex posed daily to chemicals that da.mqe the nervous system, yet the pernment is doing little to protect the public, a con gressional report charges. The health threat is "every bit as large and as tragic as cancer, yet almost nothing is being done about it," says Sen. Albert Gore Jr., D-Tenn. Neurotoxic chemicals include pesticides, pollutants. cosmetic ingredients, food ad ditives and illicit and prescrip tioo drugs. Exposure can cause symptoms ranging from Impaired movement to memory loss, conwlsions and death. The report, prepared by the Office of Technology Assess ment, suggests exposures play a role in Alzheimer's, Parkin son's and Lou Gehrig's disease. Infants and the elderly face the highest risk, says Gore, who commissioned the report. Among the lndings: IJll, 17 of the most prevalent industrial pollutants have neurotoxlc potential and many of the 600 pesticides registered with the EPA are neurotoxi~ IJll, Few of the 65,000 toxic-. chemicals listed by the EPA are tested tor neurotoxic ef fects, yet the agency's request for $1.5 million to do more test ing was denied by the Office of Management and Budget Says Mark Schaefer, OTA project director: "Each time we introduce a new chemical that hasn't been adequately tested we spin the roulette wheel and gamble with the public health." Gore called for increased funding for testing and will introduce legislation this week to stop the export of toxic chemi cals used on foods overseas and imported back to the USA

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The Chri~!i;m 2dcr :e Monitor BOSTON, MASS. 0.186,195 MA-26 M AJ,,uii.tl~~ 0 U') U) H U) ::> co ..J HO :=>n :z: 0 U) ::,,: u :z: O> (I) ..J :,c :,c u L&J . >,_c V'.lU-0 C::VlV't cno'-'l ou .!. v .:!l ... c -b .a u a e 00 c ;,iii, -;;; II) 8 e -II) c: ;:l lib ... t>O :s.:: ,,, ,.... "..c: ~..c: ... o.e "'a .3-5-o o] II) ;:l ~. 0 1.3 1 ::= .!!l 0..C: ;:l "-" ~tOOVlv >f---~ .... V)::, 0 QJ ........ v..c::V CU .... Vl t:: s::-L.i 0 id :::1 e .... .. II) "' >, ..c: o ... c c "' :.::i ..... c: u c: "' II) c .,, ;;; II) :::1 (lJ O :::: o fJ .:!l II) > -~ -5 :.::i o ..a o Eo o E u "' i: e o... u : 8 g 5 u t>O C/l (lJ C/l ro (lJ C/l 1"""'4 ""d ,.... ..c: ... II) .... >, ;::: V E ... ... ... II) -0 0 II) E "' <1l -0 .... 0 ... ... C u ;:g E o==..c:_g E "'.,,.::: <+--oi'" t; -St: c 8 u ..c: II) ;q ij..c: vi ;;..c: c ~cc ::, V) o v::3 o u~ en ....,0 .... o ,, 1 "' ;:, 0 < -5 <+--a 0 ... > >< !iii o C .t ... tt > ... ro.:,,::::1:,.-0 -0~<11 "' "' II) o ,..J e a o. c o ..c: .... -o ...., c:: L.. CQ C'.S O ,;: "O t...,;.. ""O (IJ c:: V) .... u bO .... 0-1-, C. ....., ...., 0 C: 0 <+-o o II) r:J u "' ..:..: II) ,O -o o. .... rn -o -o ::: .,, o ~--.... ce-'"' ..c:-<'3 ... oo oec II) c:: c::-I ,, ... II) -o 0 ::! ::, -5 o ... ... C til ;:, oo. > .... c5 ... <1l ..c: II) .o .:a -~-1-, -w~ mu .... ~~....,v,~-J.-c '-4--40 ~co~~a!>:.g]til~.5~ -5"E5lll)~e8 ~.sbo~;fl t.!f~~ rn ,._; "'e .!:! u aJ ti) e .0 ;; >, "' e ;:g -5 ] b .,; .,.; "' e -~ 0 II) :a ij g, II) .,.J II) E := ::,E "' o. ..c: "' > -~ ;a co ...... t:l u c:: .iii -o "' ..c: "' II) "' U ,, '"' c:: -o "' "' oo "' o c:: "' ;:, "' <+--;:, c ,.-0. .... II) C e a <1l II) C II) ti) ro til c:: .0... 0 0. bl).:,,: "' .,, e ,..o Q,io c:: .a 0 ..:..: o ci -s !;b o .... e ,.2 >, fJ c:: u -~ -g :::1 -o bl) u s. "' f! .. t .,; u @ <11 O <~<1--g
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.. '.II ... ~r1t ~tsmi :roar~ MIAMl,FLA. 0.437,233 FL-148 r .: ....... .. ~'.:"~ _!'. .. : .. .... ( ..... ... --: ,,, ..-: r,, < :;r ;~. -~-~,_._ ;: ,.... ; .. ,... .. ~{ .:._;;: .... ,. ~.(,,.'t:: .. ..,. '_I Chemi~fl safety steP~ labeled -~oor ~r j WASHINGTO~-tP) '":. Attempts to safeguard the public against toxic chemicals that attack the nervous system have been fragR h c h Id id --~,.:' : mented and ineffective, raising con-esearc ers say ongress S OU cons er: :;: 1 ~.:I .. cer n a bout the health of mi'llions of Increasing spending on research into the of toxic a chemicals on the nervous system. -;i;~'.:. .. -i~ : .Americans; congressional research More funding for toxicity testing and monitoring of people i 1\1 eis said Wednesday: ; exposed to certain chemicals. .,. .J .... : A study by the Office of Technol A more coordinated federal regulatory program for neuro-1 ;_ ogy Assessment on the health toxic substances. ., -, ilireat from neurotoxic substances 'concluded that the government .__ _________________________ _. : 4 should devote more research to the ., risks posed by such chemicals and develop a coordinated program to { regulate them. ., While. the government has ;; focused on the cancer risks posed by .-: many toxic substances, "the .. adverse effects [of such chemicals] : \ on organs and organ systems, par ticularly the nervous system, may < pose-an equal-or greater threat to :~" The findings by OT A, a technical -~' public health," said the report. :,,: research agency of Congress, sup;1+ ; port the need for increased funding ,_-l for research into the dangers of neu, ,.,. .. ~-'.i ; rotoxic chemicals and the need to _:: : t develop a better program to regu~t late them. :1'.. ; "Chronic neurotoxicity presents a : health risk every bit as large and as < :-~r.agi: as cancer, yet a~Il!?st 1_1othing .. :>,: 1s bemg done about 1t, said Sen. .. : ., i': Albert Gore,. D-Tenn., chairman of .-, :?1,i; the Senate subcommittee on sci~ ". '. /: ence, technology and space. "Our iregulatory system is virtually blind .., ... .:,i to this risk." ." f. The report said more than 65,000 P toxic substances and chemicals are ': ;, in use and many can damage the ; nervous system, causing or contrib. ~1 uting to such disorders as Parkin:J~~>/:j~{.; ,' :-.~-;\,' : -: son's .disease, Alzheimer's diseas~ and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, known as Lou Gehrig's disease The_ neurotoxic substances range from industrial chemicals and drugs to food additives and ingredients in cosmetics. On Tuesday, a citizens group crit'. icized the chemical industry for not moving fast enough to curb toxic releases. It said 42. percent of all such pollution comes from chemical plants and four of the top five pollut;. ers are chemical companies. J "Millions of American workers Citize~ Action ~it~dstatistics are exposed to neurotoxic subreleased last month by the Environ; stances in the workplace, but illness mental Protection Agency showing : stemming .from these exposures that 4.6 billion pounds of toxic it often goes undetected and industrialchemicals were released'" untreated," the OT A report said. by industry in 1988. :~ "It's time for polluters to take-+ I responsible action," said Robert M.~ Brandon, vice president of Citizen" Action. i -J Because of inadequate research, it said, little is known about the potentially adverse effects of thou sands of these chemicals on the ner vous system. "The number of sub stances that pose a significant risk to public health and the extent of that risk are unknown," it said. Senate subcommittees have been holding hearings on _the regulation of neurotoxic substances with an eye toward developing new legisla tion. "The regulatory safety net that is intended to protect the public from toxic chemicals is in need ofrepair," said Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev ,,.. .. Jeffrey Van, a spok-esmen for theChemical. Manufactiu:ers Associa~:; tion, said member companies-, already are committed to making-\ significant reductions fa hazardous 1 releases. :1 r.... .. .; "The public has spoken. People-\ say the numbers are too high and l they want them down," said Van.: He said some large companies are t planning emission cuts substantially_: greater than 50 percent in the,t 1990s.

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11/Report w8rns of brain-damaging c~emicals D A federal panel says the risk of more nerve 1 diseases grows with the increasing, unregulated use of toxic substances lo~<.:fl'I By OZ HOPKINS KOGLIN of The Oregonian staff sional Office of Technology AssessPeter S. Spencer, director of the ment was released by Sen. Albert Center for Research on Occupation Gore Jr., D-Tenn., chairman of the al and Environmental Toxicology at science, technology and space subOregon Health Sciences University, committee of the Senate Committee ; is chairman of the New Develop on Commerce, Science and Trans: ments in Neuroscience Advisory portation. Panel, which made tl:ie report. "Chronic neurotoxicity presents The advisory report emphasized a health risk every bit as large and that the connection between expoas tragic as cancer; yet, as this sure to toxins and the development report reveals, almost nothing is of some neurological disorders is not being done about it," Gore said. "As well understood. The panel said Thousands of industrial chem-of today, that will change. All more research was needed to clarify icals, cosmetic ingredients, Americans must be immediately the apparent relationship. therapeutic drugs, foods and made aware of the hidden danger, Spencer is co-editor of the first food additives pose an unknown and our federal regulatory systems textbook on neurotoxicology and threat to public health, according to must be redesigned to focus atten.directs the first university-based a federal report released Wednestion on this grave risk." research program with a primary foday. He said 5 million Americans -10 cus on the adverse effects of chemiAn advisory panel found evi~ times as many as were affected at cals on the nervous system and dence sugge~ting that many of these' the turn of the century suffer de-behavior. substances are toxic to the brain and mentias such as Ahheimer's dis-He said scientists had uncovered nervous system, and may be respon-:-ease:.Gore--said it was startling to evidence that disease resulting from 1 sible for recent increases in Alz-,. consider that those illnesses may be chemical exposure may remain hidheimer's disease, amyotrophic associated with toxic chemicals. den for years or decades before ill lateral sclerosis or Lou Gehrig's ~Your regulatory system is virness results. It appears that old peo-disease and Parkinson's disease. tually blind to this risk. Action is ple and fetuses with developing ner'l'he panel's report to the congres. urgently needed," Gore said. vous systems are at special risk for the adverse affects of chemical sub stances. Also, some industrial and agricultural workers are vulnerable because they can be exposed to rela tively high levels of chemicals. Adverse health reactions to sub stances depend strongly on the toxicity of the substances and the degree to which people are exposed, according to the report. Many poten tially neurotoxic substances appear to be harmless at low doses, but determining safe levels of exposure is often difficult. For example, scientists have repeatedly lowered the levels of lead they believe can adversely affect the developing ner vous system. "The brain is clearly extraordinarily susceptible to a range of chemicals, whether they be natural chemicals or synthetic chemicals," Spencer said in an interview. "There is such a great abyss of ignorance that we need to fill in the understanding of the way chemical agents are able to attack the nervous system before we can even begin tO' --.J-----------design rational methods to screen for these adverse effects," he said. The brain is vulnerable because damaged nerve cells in the brain do not grow back. In addition, certain parts of the brain lose cells as they age, so an older person becomes progressivly more vulnerable to cer tain types of chemicals. The groups of nerve cells that undergo changes with age are the same cells involved in the 'major neurodegenerative diseases: Alzheimer's, Parkinson's and Lou Gehrig's, Spencer said. The report, "Neurotoxicity: Iden tifying and Controlling Poisons oi the Nervous System," found that thl actual number of potentially danger ous substances is not know1, because most chemicals on the mar ket have not been tested to deter mine whether they adversely affec' the nervous system. i) Please turn tc TOXIC, Page E1 1n:{i<: ,:~gontan \''JfHLAND, OREGON D. 3?.7,603 t .., 1 n"'n

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TV CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM BU~tl,E~.l.FS 15 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD I LIVINGSTON I NEW JERSEY 01039 (201) 992-6600 I (800) 631-1160 ,\,lav 16. 1990 -1-:00-5:00 PM MT Cable News Network The World Today Bernard Shav.. co-anchor: ACCOUNT NUMBER NIELSEN AUDIENCE 10/6297 Y N/A There are claims the federal government is doing a poor job of protecting Americans from crim--cht=micals that i:ause grave neurological damage. That's the conclusilin oi a new congressionai repon. The srory from CNN's EJ Garstt!n. Ed Garsten reporting: There are chemicals that help us look better. chemicals that go in our food. on our walls and in the air. More than sixtv-five thousand different chemicals containing: toxins that i::111 att,Kk the nervous s,stem. There are chemicals that are known to cause or rnntribute to neuroloe:ical diseases: Parkinson's disease. Alzheimer's disease and ALS or Lou Gehrig's disease. A new study by the Office of T echno!O)!\' Assessment says government attempts to protect Americans from so-called neurotoxins are disorganized and ineffective. Senator Nbert Gore ( Chairman. Si:ience. Technology. Space Subcommittee): I think we should be prepared to move swiftly on this. this is not some hyped-up scare. this is a real problem that has just escaped attention and awareness up until now. Garsten: Solving the problem is not all that simple. Paul Hollenger (Toxicologist): The problem is that we will not have been able to identify all of the compounds that could be neurotoxins. Another thing th:H we> d0n't know is. nnLe we\'t' idc>ntified them. hnw do thev act--how do they act? Garsten: The report urges Congress to opens its purse strings and spend more for research. testing and monitoring of potential victims and better federal regulation of the chemicals. (The chemical report is discussed further.) 250 Words 21 Clips Vidc:0 c:i,
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BUSH SETS. TARGET. FOR MARS LANDING He Seeks to Send Astronauts to Planet by Year 2020 By JOHN NOB.LE WILFORD President Bush declared yesterday that the United States should send as tronauts to Mars in the next 30 years as the long-term goal of a "new age of ex ploration." It was the firsftime Mr. Bush had set a timetable for human expeditions to Mars, a goal that he proposed last July on the 20th anniversary of the first Apollo landing on the Moon. He did not give-any estimate, then or now, of how much the program would cost. Nor did hediscuss whether the mission would be meunted-alone or with international partoers. But Mr. Bush said he considered the Mars timetable to be an integral part of a program to assure the nation's leadership in space in the ne~t century aad to "revolutionize" new technolo gies and industry. In a commencement address at Texas A&I University in Kingsville, Mr. Bush s.iid: "Thirty years ago, NASA was founded and the space race began. An~ 30 years from now I believe man.will stand on another planet. Arid. so I am pleased to return to Texas today to announce a new age of explora tion with not only a goal but also a timetable: I believe that before Apollo celebrates the 50th anniversary of its lancU,tg on the Moon; the American flag should be planted on Mars." Ea..U.r Crldclsm for Vqueness Last July, the President announced his intention to support "a sustained program of manned exploration of the sola:r system and the permanent settle ment of space." He specifically called for a program to explore .and occupy the Moon and also to send humans to Mars. Critics said the proposals were vague since they made no mention of timing or costs. The Administration said the speech yesterday was the logical next step in elaborating Mr. Bush's long-term vision for space el(J)loration. Mr. Bush outlined his proposals for Mars exploration in the context of his Administration's goals for reviving interest in science and improving education In this country. He also empha sized that the program would '.'revolu tionize everything from computers to communications. from medicine to metals. regaining and retaining Amer ica's high-tech competitive edge." Any effort to expand the space pro gram is certain to encount~r Congres sional opposition, particularly in view of pressures to cut spending. The Administration's proposed 1991 budget for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration would be $15.2 billion, 23 percent more than current spending. But Congressional leaders have already threatened to trim at leut Sl bil-l-
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RADIO CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD I LIVINGSTON I NEW JERSEY 07039 (201) 992-6600 I (800) 631-1160 \'fay 11. 1990 7:007:05 PM MT ABC Entert;iinment News Bob Hart reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER Here's the latest from ABC News. I'm Bob Hart. 10/6.:?97 Y Almost thn.:c: decades ai.?.o. Pr.:sid~,1t Kcnn~dv committed the U.S. t0 a manned l;inding on the moon. Today. President Bush set a timet;ible for a manned landing on Mars. (President Bush describes his space-program goals.) Hart: The president did not indic;ite where the money would come from. He figures thirty years is a long time to figure that out. ABC's Jim Slade says a study group in Congress figures two things ought to happen before the nation commits itself to any more manned missions to the stars. Jim Slade reporting: The Congressional Office of Technologv Assessment says before anyone plans to go to the moon or Mars. they ought to first make certain that's what the country wants to do. and second. make sure once and for all that there's a way to pay for it. In 3 report commissioned by the House Committee on Science. Space. and T echnologv. researchers said there s still a lack of a dear future course for U.S. space activities. And this makes it almost impossible to build the right kinds of launch vehicles to do the job. The office said there are plenty of options if Congress decides to go forward. including buying more shuttles. but those choices should be made in the next couple of years. The report did not rule out extensive cooperation with other countries. including the Soviet Union and Japan. to cut costs. Jim Slade. ABC News. Washington. '257 Words .:?l Clips

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RADIO CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD I LIVINGSTON,' NEW JERSEY 07039 /201) 992-6600 (800) 631-1160 Mav 11. 1990 12:00-12:05 PM MT CBS News Mike Pulsipher reporting: CBS News. I'm Mike Pulsipher. ACCOUNT NUMBER 10/6297 Y A lot of talk tod:1y nbout the future of the U.S. '-pace program: Presidc::>nt Bush told an audience at Texas A&l University in Kingsville that he envisions American astronauts on the red planet within thirty years. President George Bush: I believe that before Apollo celebrates the fiftieth anniversary of its landing on the moon. the American t1ag should be planted on Mars. Pulsipher: Apollo 11 set down on the lunar surface in July. 1969. Mr. Bush says he's proposing a twenty-four percent budget bump for NASA--up to a total of more than fifteen billion dollars for fiscal 1991. A report by the government's Office of T echnologv Assessment suggests a bigger problem than money is planning. The OTA report calls for development of a detailed plan for future U.S. space exploration. It also contends there are safety problems still in the space-shuttle program. Chairman Albert Gore. of the Senate subcommittee on Science Technology in Space. says that issue must be addressed. Albert Gore: We need to take steps to reduce the risk of another shuttle tragedy by focusing even more intently on some of the systems that need to be improved in order to avoid another tragedy. Pubiphcr: Dc-:claring th~ odds of another shuttle being lo:;t in the next few years at fifty-fifty. the OTA report calls for consideration of building an additional space craft. 232 Words 19 Clips

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The Houston Post HOUSTON, TEXAS 0.322,193 MAY 12 1qqo BUJfflEU.FS Report boosts NASA argument to build another space shuttle BY JUAN R. PALOMO ID 'J.'1'1Y POST WASHINGTON BUREAU WASHINGTON For years, NASA has tried to get the White House to go along with a request for a fifth space shuttle only to be turned down every time. Friday, a congressional report gave the space agen cy's desire a boost, arguing there's a good chance another orbiter will be lost before assembly of the space station begins. The report, by the Office of Technoloi)i Assessroeot (OTA), a congressional research agency, urged legisla tors to decide on the course of U.S. space exploration before it picks the best space transportation system. A new shuttle, like the one being built to replace Challenger, would cost $2 billion to $2.5 billion. Robert Crippin, NASA's shuttle chief, said recently he intends to seek funds next year for a new shuttle to go into service in the late 1990s. Crippen said a fifth orbiter is needed to take the place of those taken out of service for technological upgrading. The OT A said NASA's goal of 14 launches a year poses increased risks to astronauts.and that the sched ule could be limited to flights requiring human crews, or about eight to 10 launches per year. "The actual reliability of the shuttle system is unknown, but may lie between 97 percent and 99 percent," the report said. "If reliability is 98 percent, -the nation faces a 50-50 chance of losing an additional orbiter in the next 34 flights." If shuttle reliability is 98 percent, the report said, "launching shuttles at the rates now planned would make it unlikely that space station assembly could begin before another orbiter is lost." OT A said the United States can make do with its launch systems until the next century if it follows the current course of steady growth in civilian and military space activities. But, if Americans want a permanent lunar base, missions to Mars or a space-based defense system, the government should be prepared to spend $10 billion to $20 billion in development costs alone for new launch systems, the report said. The report also said the risk to the shuttle fleet would be reduced by developing a heavy-lift launch system, known as Shuttle-C, that would replace the orbiter with a cargo container. Shuttle-C would cost $1. l billion, plus $400 million for each launch, NASA said. Congress, the OT A said, should decide whether to develop a rescue vehicle for astronauts aboard the fpace station that will be in orbit late in the decade. i The report said Congress should look to developing two new launch systems: a personnel carrier-launch ~em that would carry little cargo and be launched atop an expendable rocket, and a larger, advanced, manned launch system using a reusable vehicle. -l

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578 !:iAN DIEGO DAILY TRANSCRIPT ~AN OIE:GO, CA OAILV 10,000 HONDAV HAY 14 1990 8Ufl/?U.E~s GI Congressional Report Suggests NASA Buy More Sp~ji~les ByHAR~OSENTHAL ~Pr-.Writer WASHINGTON NASA should buy at least one more space shuttle because there's a 50-50 chance a craft will be lost in the next several years, a congressional report suggests. A new shuttle, like the one being built to replace the destroyed Challenger, would cost $2 billion to $2.5 billion. The Office of Technology ~ssessment said NASA's goal of 14 launches a year poses increased riska to astronauts and that the schedule could be limited "to a regular, sustainable rate of eight to 10 launches" by limiting flights to payloads requiring human crews. "The actual reliability of the shuttle system is unknown, but may lie between 97 percent and 99 percent," the report said. "If reliability is 98 percent, the nation faces a 50-50 chance of losing an additional orbiter in the next 34 flights." The Challenger explosion in 1986, which killed seven crew members, happened on the 25th shuttle flight; there have. ~en 10 missions since. The loss of Challenger left three shutt_les in the NASA fleet, Discovery, Atlantis and Columbia. A new shuttle, to be called Endeavour, will be finished next year and flying in 1992. OT A, a congressional advisory group, said in its report that the nation can make do with existing launch systems until the next cen tuey if it follows the current course of steady growth in civilian and military space activities. But if the United States wants a permanent lunar base, missions to Mars or a space-based defense J \ system, the report said, it should be prepared to spend $10 billion te $20 billion in development costs alone for new launch systems. "Because the nation cannot afford to invest in all the good ideas proposed for improved or new launch systems, Congress and the administration will have to choose from a wide range of options," the report said. "Some choices must be made in the next two to three years. Others can wait longer." The rnost immediate choices are making improvements in expen dable rockets that are based on 1950s and '60s designs, limiting shuttle flights, buying more orbiters and paying for shuttle im provement program. "Much like the B-52 bomber, which has steadily grown more capable and remained operational for over 30 years, the ability of the shuttle orbiters to stay in service can theoretically be extended for another two decades," the report said. NASA is improving the shuttle's main engines, has begun a pro gram to build more reliable, higher capacity advanced solid rocket motors, and is installing new computers more tolerant than the ones built in the 1970s. The report also said: The risk to the shuttle fleet would be reduced by developing a heavy-lift launch system, known as Shuttle-C, that would replace the orbiter with a cargo container. NASA estimates the Shuttle-C will cost $1.1 billion, plus $400 million for each launch. Congress should decide whether to develop a rescue vehicle for astronauts aboard the space station that will be in orbit late in the decade, the report said. It would coat $1 billion to $2 billioq.

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ELECTRONIC EHGIHEERIHG TIMES HAHHAS!lET, NV WF.E'KLV 103,0oO IIAY 211990 DI OT A: Rethink tech 'superiority' lvJ-q1Y BY BRIAN ROBINSON WashingtonThe United States may have to radically rethink its 40year-ol~ policy of maintaining tech nological superiority in favor of closer collaboration with its allies if it wants to preserve close security alliances, a congressional report warns. With changing circumstances in both Eastern and Western Europe, and the increasing uncertainty of NATO and the Warsaw Pact, the Office of Technology Assessment said, the reasons the United States collaborated with its allies in de fense technology are not as valid as they once were, and policies on cooperation must be reconsidered. The recent OTA special report is a preliminary document. A final report in May of next year will lay out the detailed policy options that will likely form the basis for con gressional action on defense tech nology collaboration. The OT A is the analytical arm of Congress. Superiority in military technol ogy over potential adversaries has been the explicit foundation of U.S. national security policy since the end of World War II, the report points out. Technology lead ership over U.S. allies has been implicit in that policy, but that superiority is now declining. However, far from being a threat, that decline may be the price the United States has to other business arrangements with pay to gain access to foreign de-European and Asian companies, fense technology in the future, transferring U.S. technology and the OT A said. subcontracting with them for por-There have been signs that tions of U.S. weapons systems. some elements in Congress and That collaboration may make the administration have already business sense for individual com reached that same conclusion. panies, the OTA said, but it may When the Department of Defense ultimately create unacceptable released its 1990 Critical Technoldependence on foreign suppliers, ogies Report in March, Sen. Jeff erode parts of the U.S. defense Bingaman, D-N.M., chairman of industrial base, and undermine the Senate Armed Services SubU.S. foreign policy goals. committee on Defense Industry The OT A, concurring in part and Technology, said it was not in with what Bingaman said, contend the cards that the United States eel that part of the problem lies in would catch the Japanese in all of the need in the United States to the technologies in which they are accept the fact that the leading ahead, particularly semiconductors edge of technology does not always and photonics. That could force reside in the defense industries or collaboration with Japan and other even in the United States. allies, he said. Increasingly, it said, internation-Some movement Around the same time, the admin istration announced an agreement between the United States and Japan to cooperate in research in three military technologies in which the United States was deemed to be behind, with col laboration on as many as seven -others being considered. The issue is complicated by the differing visions of U.S. industry and the government, the report said. Large U.S. companies that can operate internationally are entering into strategic market alliances and alized patterns of industrial devel opment make much of the debate in the United States over defense production irrelevant. If the DOD pursued a strict policy of procuring only from U.S. companies, it said, it would be difficult to specify ex actly what a U.S. company is. Finally, the OTA said a new policy on export controls will have to be fashioned, balancing the eco nomic concerns of U.S. companies against U.S. foreign policy con cerns. Controls on some military technologies may have to be tight ened, while those on other technol ogies will have to be relaxed.

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l)EFENSE NEWS SPRINGFIELD, VA WEEKLY 22,UOO MAV 14 1990 -7769 BUB_{?ELLE{S NO _;_;.: l ~i ""~-'\1 ... :;;rr -~J, __ ,d~~u i -~ ': BU{!/?Eli.E'S ,; _; --~ rKeep defenc~ .American' :..: 1 ; .; WASHINGTC5N"?.i'.. The United '.; States may be mortgaging its future 2 defences by not limiting collabora-e. ;tion with allies in high-tech weap-; ;_ ons development, says a congressio; nal study. The practice may make the United States too dependent on; ; foreign suppliers, said the report re~ leased yesterday by the Office 0 Tt;h.Jlology_Assessment. iOTAStudy Urges U.S. to Reconsider 1 Defense Technology Cooperation Policy J By GEORGE LEOPOLD _; Defense News Staff Writer !.tJ-:) q 7 ,j 1 WASHINGTON The United States must re 1 think its policy on defense technology coopera -i tion in the face of declining military spending, in j dustrial overcapacity and stiff international 1 competition spawned in part by 40 years of de "l fense collaboration, according to a congressional -;l study. :1 "With our help, our allies have become our competitors," concludes the study, "Anning Our ; Allies: Cooperation and Competition in Defense i Technology." Released last Friday by the Office ;~ of Technology Assessment (OTA), a nonpartisan :j agency that analyzes policy and technical issues for Congress, the study was commissioned by the 1 Senate Anned Services and House Government ;J Operations committees. 1 The study notes that the U.S. postwar policy of -~ transferring military technologies to its European -~ and Asian allies for mutual defense has succeed'.1 ed. But the policy also has led to "significant -j peacetime overcapacity in the defense industry j worldwide, and to intense competition for sales l of high-technology weapons." Another major result has been the erosion of J U.S. technological leadership. "The loss of tech ; nological supremacy may be an unavoidable -j long-term cost of maintaining strong security alli J ances," OTA concludes. "It might also be the 1 price of gaining access to foreign defense tech nology in the future." U.S.-Japanese defense collaboration is a major focus of the OTA report. It identifies last year's stormy congressional debate over codevelop ment of Japan's Fighter Support Experimental (FSX) aircraft as a turning point in U.S. policy on defense technology cooperation. According to OTA, the debate exposed the lack of a U.S framework for addressing specific cases like FSX or resolving general questions arising from de fense collaboration. ... It is probable that the FSX controver.,y will be revisited the next time a major codevelop ment program is proposed with an ally," OTA predicts. In assessing U.S. arms cooperation with NATO, the report gives low marks to a NATO co operative research and development effort launched in 1986 under the sponsorship of ~n Sam Nunn, D-Ga., chainnan of the Sen.ate Anncd Services Committee. Despite recei,ing about $512 million in congressional appropriations over four years, the results of the s!,p<'n;Llly Japan must focus more Oil t_echnolo,L!ll'S with both military and ci\ilian applwatlon.s a.s \H'il i, development of weapon subsystems.

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NATURE 1.0NOON, F.N WEEKLY 3~,000 NAY 10 1990 -4699 Bu~E,U.E'S CI HIGH-TEMPERATURE SUPERCONDUCTIVITY----------US exposes same old faults c::; I Washington ""' r 'y As visions of levitated tra;fis and cheap electricity from superconducting genera tors have faded, research into high temperature superconductivity, now four years old, has settled in for the long haul. But the initial ballyhoo caught the imagination of politicians as well as the public in the United States. and coming along with fears of Japan's rising technical prowess, it propelled the notion that high temperature superconductivity could be the vehicle for new policies that might help tum basic research into marketable products. Now, says a report from the congressional Office of Technology Assess ment iQJA). the research is going well but the policy derailed some time ago. Total spending on high-temperature superconductivity research in the United States and Japan is about the same. In 1989, the US government spent $130 million, and the Japanese about $70 million, but for spending by industry the figures are almost reversed. The quality of the research seems to be on a par: the OT A report describes US research as "second to none", while in the March 1990 issue of Science Watch two of three 'hottest' (most cited) papers in physics concern high-temperature superconduc tivity and both from Japan. But although equal now, differences are set to emerge. Almost half the high-temperature superconductivity money from the US government has gone to the Department of Defense, while Japan's spending is all aimed at commercial, not military applica tion. In addition, the remainder of the US federal research support goes predomi nantlv to the national laboratories. which have a poor track record in technology transfer to industrv. In Japan, a big ;uccess by MIT! (Minis try of International Trade and Industry) was the establishment in 1988 of !STEC (the International Superconductivity Technology Center). a consortium of industrial contributors (including a handful of US and European companies) who each pay about $100.000 annually to support high-temperature superconducti vity research. Although ISTEC is the kind of government-led effort that generally inspires fear and envy in the United States, the OT A report plays down its significance. arguing that it is occupied entirelv with basic research of the kind that is adequately supported. but in differ ent ways, by the US goverment. The bigger threat to US supremacy. according to OTA. is the much greater level of support by Japanese industry. and the more patient thinking that lies behind it. In a survey of US and Japanese industries doing high-temperature super conductivity research. US respondents said. on average. that they expected to see the first commercial products on the market in 1992. whereas the Japanese companies saw the likely date as 2000. Given the fairly equal base of research in the two countries. the difference is pre sumed to reflect more favourably on Japanese persistence than US optimism. David Lindley High-Temperature Superconduct1v1ty ,n Perspective -1 OTA--440. Apr,/ 1990.

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RADIO CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM :'5 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD LIVINGSTON NEW JERSEY 07039 1201 I 992-6600 18001631-1160 :\ la\' 2b. 1990 3:03-3:0.i AM MT United Press International Science and You Jim Lud,\ in reporting: Science and You. rm Jim Lud,vin. ACCOUNT NUMBER 10/6297 Y Pri,ate industrys failure ro support superconductor research raises douht<; o,er whether the United States can win the race to develop practical uses for superconductors. :-\ Congressional report says that the United States surpasses Japan and other leading industrial nations in the amount of government funds spent on research into high-temperature superconductivity. But the report found that Japanese companies invested about fifty percent more in such research than did U.S. companies in 1988, one hundred seven million dollars compared with seventy-three million. In addition. the Office of TechnolO)' Assessment study found that twenty Japanese companies spent more than a million dollars each on superconductor research compared with fourteen U.S. companies that spent a million dollars or more. On the average. Japanese businesses did not expect to see returns on their investments until the vear .2000. That"s eie:ht vears after the 1992 date set by the Americans. I'm Jim Ludwin. 159 Words 13 Clips

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.... -. T' : ': 1 ;: ... ,; <"':? BV.1f(fS America is losing superconductivity race By Daniel S. Greenberg \..f) :).. q 7 There's another saga in the making of Japan outracing the United States in competition to tum scientific discoveries into marketplace winners. For the U.S., this one may be sadder than most, because it involves a home-grown field of science in which the eventual industrial payoff is foreseen as boundless. Remember the excitement over high-temperature superconductivity? Discovered in 1986, it was the scientific breakthrough of the decade, promising enormous energy savin~ and new technologies throu~ the use of ceramic compounds that transmit electncity with little or no loss of power. Previous research has shown this could be done when the materials were expensively chilled to extremely low temperatures. The SE>-Called high-temperature findin~ pointed to the distant possibility of superconductivity at economical room temperatures. The discoverers, working in an IBM laboratory in Switzerland, shared the 1987 Nobel physics prize-, and their work was promptly advanced by university researchers in the U.S. Futuristic imaginations conjured upvisions of an end to energy crises. extraordinarily rapid magnetically levitated trains, and computing power beyond anything possible today. Still ahead, though, was the extremely difficult task of transforming the new scientific knowledge into marketable products, a daunting process that has left many bright ideas stillborn in laboratory notebooks. And thus began a fierce competition in which the industrially advanced nations have been investing hundreds of millions of dollars. How's it going? Not well for the U.S., according to a review of superconductivity research in the U.S., Japan and Europe by Congres.1's own think tank. the Office of Technol~.1rumt. It reports that Amencan industry is wary of the large costs and long commitments needed to bring superconductivity to the commercial stage. In 1988, American industrial firms Daniel S. Greenberg is editor and publisher of Science & Government Report, a Washington-based newsletter. spent about $73 million on high-temperature superconductivity research, but their time horizon for getting to market was an unrealistic 1992. ~n. contrast, OTA found, Japanese firms_~nt $107 million on high-temperature superconductlVlty as well as substantial sums on low-temperature research, but they did so with patience, looking to the year 2000 as the debut date for their products. The U.S. government is also spending heavily on high-temperature superconductivity research, some $130 million a year. But half of the federal money comes from the Pentagon, OTA notes, and is focused on military rather than commercial problems. There are also reasons to doubt the staying power of federal agencies in this field of research. OT A points out that the federal government ran up an erratic record in low-temperature superconductivity research prior to the 1986 breakthrough, finally terminating its support in the late 1970s and 1980s, and then plunging back in after the Nobel-winning discovery was announced. Reporting to Congres.,, OT A states that the "finding that Japanese industly is investing about 70 percent more than the U.S. in superconductivity R&D would not be so disturbing if it were not part of a ~er pattern. But across a broad spectrum of emergmg technologies-advanced ceramics, optoelectronics, robotics, etc.-the story is the same. And Japan is not the only country where investment in these technologies is rising faster than in the United States. "The common characteristic of all these technologies." the OT A report continues, "is that they involve long-term. high-risk investment. Oeady, these kinds of long-term investments are becoming more and more difficult for U.S. managers to make." The report concludes that failure to win the race to the. superconductivity marketplace will not reflect any failing on the part of American scientists and engineers. Rather, says OTA, the blame lies with government policies and commercial values that discourage long-term commitments and put a premium on fast riches, which are not to be had from the complex science of superconductivity. 1990, Dant81 S.

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iuperconductor llustrates woes >f U.S. technology IFRONtmE] agle Washington bureau WASHINGTON -Back when U.S. Industry dominatd every new technology from the llgbt bulb to plastic rnp, few people could have Imagined a day when so laDY advances translStOrs, semiconductors, compact ars, video recorders -would have slipped thro~ the lstracted ftngers of corporate America. Now another new technology ls at hand. promising to llange life slgnlflcantly as It spreads through society In 1e next century. And already, critics of U.S. industrial ollcy say there are signs that this new tool also will fall 1to the hands of others more willing to devote time and 1oney to Its research and development specifically, 1ose past masters of Industrial patience, the Japanese. The new technology Is b.igll-temperature superconducvlty, the remarkable capacity of certain new synthetic iaterials to do something profoundly simple: conduct lectridty without losing any energy along the way. The nations and Industries that harness superconducvlty eventually could preside over and proftt from major transtonnatlons In everything from the sl1.e of 1onthly electric bills to modes of mass transportation, lgll.,cipeed computation, precise medical diagnosis and ther applications no one has even thought of yet. American scientists still appear to be ahead of the See CONDUCTOR, Page 1=fil i tag1t .VICHITA, KANS. SIIN 193,502 '.tC:..?~1'1 MAl,u1JLJ 990 ,_ CONDUCTOR FrQ{'l Page IA r> international competition In exploration into superconductivity, but critics say America's scientific abilities never have been the problem. The central failing. they say, lies with government and industry leaders who sometimes lack the money, the creativity or the toughness to find the market potential in scientific dlscOYery. It was only three years ago that American, Japanese and Chinese researchers almost simultaneously announced development of ceramic compounds that could superconduct electricity without being cooled to the ultra-low temperatures of earlier materials. Scientists don't even know yet why the materials behave as they do, and It will take years of further research and understanding before superconductors are In broad use. But as the congressional Office ot Technology Assesnent notes In -a. new report, the long.term research commitment required by such a fresh and mysterious technology ls not something American government policy bas encouraged, nor something American Industry has embraced. In the words of OTA director John Gibbom, high-temperature superconductivity "is a test case, not of the U.S. ability to commercialize a new technology rapidly, but of its abiltty to look beyond the Immediate future and sustain a consistent R&D effort over the long term. As such, IITS poses a difficult challenge to government policymakers and in-. dustry managers alike." So far, the policymakers have. been spending a substantial amount -$130 million In 1989, compared to the Japanese government's $70 mil lion and West Germany's $35 mil lion but the work Is fragmented among at least five agencies pursu ing their own separate lnteresls. And In the private sector, Amertcan corporations Invested less than three-quarters of what Japanese in dustry spent on high-temperature superconductivity research In 1988 -$73 million compared to $107 mil-lion. Most important, the public and private Japanese efforts are coordinated through the government's prime economic body, the Ministry of International Trade and Industry. In the United States, the public and private hands of research don't know nearly as well What each other is doing. The reasons American efforts are such a hodgepodge lie partly In longo,tandlng lneffldenctes that didn't seem as important before, as well as current polltks and economics. Some of the factors noted by the OTA in Its superconductor study: Many' American corporations that might be expected to pursue superconductor research are so pressed by the need to impress investors with steady, sbort-term profits that they appear to be waiting for someone else u-do anything that doesn't bring quick returns. "Our economy Is 40 percent larg er than the Japanese, but their in dustry is spending 50 percent more on a breakthrough technology that is going to dominate in the next. century," says Rep. Robert Torricelli, D-NJ., chairman of a House subcommittee promoting superconduc tor development The federal government's $100 billion-plus deftdts pusti up the priceof money and further discourage corporate research expendi tures. Today the Japanese can borrow money at roughly half the Interest rate charged to U.S. compa nies. Even if a company wanted to do long-term Industrial research, says Rep. David McCunly, D-Okla., former chairman of Torricelli's sub committee, "tbe federal consumption of the capital of thls world is soaking up our abl'lity." As a result, the iedera1 government is left by default as the onl source of financing for such larg long-term projects as supertondu, tor research, and that product more problems. For reasons ranging from nation; security to self-aggrandizement, ti: U.S. government keeps a lot of i research money In-house, and th; is not necessarily the most effecti\ place for it About half the superconductc money is controlled by the Defeo, Department for mostly military a plications, and about half the r search ls being done in governme! laboratories notorious for their i. ability to show busiQess and lndustI the value of what they have don American university researcJ ers, who have a much better recor of technology transfer In collabor. tton with Industry, often lose fundiI: to the federal labs. Though many c the advances In superconductor ri search have come out of univers ties, they are receiving only 30 pe cent of current defense and dvllia superconductor research money. McCurdy looks at this tangle c programs, approaches and obstadt and says the obvious: "We need long-term plan. We need a cataly ing consensus." It ls a call that has been sounde for years by those who think th United States needs to adapt its go ernmental and private Institutions t compete With other, more centrall planned forms of capitalism abroac Some call for tax incentives fc long-term Industrial research, or t long-term Investors in such com!){ nies. Some call for closer relatlor: between business and governmer In targeting opportunities in th marketplace. Torricelli critld7.es recent pres dentlal administrations for doln. nothing and at best relying on ai outdated, rugged-Individualist, free market policy. "Fairly charactet 17.ed," he says, "ifs 'Every man to himself.' In an Increasingly technc logical world, that philosophy has n place." -----------------------,--a-._.,. ---~ t ... ~., ..... .;.;~~.;.,,..; ..., QiW1t I ti fflLM <-'!"',, f,""""" _-,,., ..... '""""~;.-:-_-, ~~.V-:.~-:.--'

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209 FINANCE I COHHERCE HINNEAPOLIS, HN DAILY FRIDAY HAY 4 1990 fJUfl.fi.ELLE'S GS --U.S. Firms Lagging in Superconductor Research BY REBECCA KOLBERG WASIIINGTON UPI ,'. 1 1 J!'rfu~l" Private industr upport superconductor research raises doubts over whether the United States can win the race to develop practi cal uses for superconductors, a congres sional report warned Thursday. The United Stales surpasses Japan and other leading industrial nations in the amount of government funds spent on re search into high-temperature supercon ductivity. But the report found Japanese firms invested about 50 percent more in such research than did U.S. companies in 1988 $ 107 million compared with $73 million. In addition, the Office of Technology Assc;s~mc;nt study found 20 Japanese firms sp_cnt more than $1 million on super conductor research compared with 14 U.S. firms that spent $1 million or more. On the average, Japanese businesses did not ex pect to sec returns on their investments until the year 2000-eight years after the average 1992 date set by the Americans. "This report raises the question ... as to whether U.S. firms have the ability to capi talize on the federal effort. We lack the commitment to take these technologies and translate them into commercially competitive items,'' said Rep. Dave Mc curdy, D-Okla., who requested the study when he served as chairman of a House Science, Space and Technology Subcom mittee. "While the United States wins the Nobel prizes, the Japanese win market share,'' McCurdy said. The Oklahoma congressman pointed out that U.S. federal spending on super conductivity research may also appear deceptively high, noting that 45 percent of the $130 million allocated in fiscal 1990 went to researchers in the Department of Defense. Superconductivity is the ability of a material to conduct electricity without resistance when chilled to low tempera tures. In 1986, IBM scientists discovered an entirely new family of high-tempera ture ceramic superconductors that worked at minus 406 degrees Fahrenheit much higher than had previously been thought possible. That finding and subsequent dis coveries of materials that could supercon duct at even higher temperatures touched off a worldwide race to develop practical uses for superconductors, such as levitating trains, rockets launched by electromagnetic force and computers that could calculate at the speed of light. But so far, commercial applications like simple microwave devices and magnetic field sensors appear at least five years away, and most will take 10 to 20 years to develop, the report said. McCurdy said both the U.S. govern ment and industry must abandon their em phasis on short-term results if the nation hopes lo translate its current research edge in the supercomputer field into worldwide commercial leadership. ''This is not a sprint; this is a marathon," he said. On Tuesday, superconductivity pioneer Paul Chu of the University of Houston revealed his team has made a major step toward applying the technology to in dustrial uses. Chu is not releasing details of the advance until results arc published in a scientific-journal within a few weeks. Authors of the new report said they did not know what Chu's achievement might be. In addition to encouraging private com panies to invest more in snperconductor research, the Office of Technology Assessment recommended universities, which now receive about one-third of federal superconductor research funds, be given a larger piece of the pie. The report also recommended the federal govern ment establish a standing advisory com mittee to assjst policy makers in making decisions about the direction of supercon ductor research. The Office of Technology Assessment is a non-partisan agency that advises Con gress on technical issues.

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AHERICAH HETAL MARKET NEW YORK, NV DAILY 10,683 I t1AVrn9 BunfMu.E~s -340 ..::::::= M -\ -u~ sets R&D pace in HTS OTA~~ian shows 'superior capabilities' in several areas By MARILYN WERBER WASHINGTON-The United States is leading in the global research and development race for high-temperature super conductivity (HTS) technology, although it shows signs of slip ping from that position, according to a new government report. In a study commissioned by Congress, the Office pf Tecbnp)pgy Assessment found that a long-term basic research effort is needed to discover ways to take commercial advantage of HTS. "If we don't begin-to show some vision and demonstrate a commitment to long-term de velopment of our scientific re search, we will turn into the per ennial loser in the high-tech marketplace," Rep. Robert Torricelli (D., N.J.) said in releasing the study. Torricelli is chairman of the Transportation, Aviation and Materials Subcommittee. According to the agency, Japan has emerged as the Unit ed States' strongest competitor in this field and has demon strate,;l "superior capabilities" in several areas, including synthesis and processing of high quality materials. "Moreover, Japan has shown the ability to sustain long-term investment in I materials research, with a strong commitment from its major cor porations. Federal funding for HTS grew to an estimated $130 million last year, which was "substantially larger"than government funding in any other country. But as far as industry spending is concerned, Japan far out paced the U.S. Japanese companies invested at least 50 per cent more in HTS research and development at $110 million than U.S. companies at $75 million in 1988, and investment in low-temperature superconductivity (LTS) was three times larger, the agency re ported. "Among the big spenders, the Japanese companies had broader superconductivity pro grams, both in terms of types of materials being developed and the scope of research." Japanese companies, however, predicted that they would -Superconductivity R&D Efforts Country Gowmmellt HTS budget Full-time United States. .. ~--"'-----$130,000,000 70,000.000 35,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 15,000.000 re111rchera 1,000 1,200 500 300 200 200 100 Japan. .......................... ....... -----West Germany .... ................................ Franca ................ .. ,m .............................. United Kingdom----: ............. .. ttaty ______ ., __ ........... .... -----.;. Nelhertanda..---~-t(""--------.._ Soviet Union.-......-..------2,000,000 2.000 1,000 Chtna... ___________ ... -........ Sao.-Olllaell#Techrll*lgJ"'i .. -lllt'lt ..... not see the commercial payoffs of the R&D until around the year 2000. "The fact that Japanese companies are willing to spend so much on R&D even though the payoff in commercial products is at least 10 years away under scores their long-term commit ment to HTS specifically, and to industrial development gener ally,''the agency reported. It identified three key issues that policy makers need to ad dress if the U.S. is to be competitive in HTS i~ the future: CAPITAL-The supply of lowcost capital available to the U.S. industry would have to be in creased. U.S. companies are re ported to be investing less than their main foreign competitors in both low-and hightemperature superconductivity research. "This is by far the most critical issue affecting the future U.S. competitive position in superconductivity and in many other emerging technologies," the report said. UNIVERSITY RESEARCH -Research would have to be shifted somewhat from federal lalioratories to universities. The agency reported that in 1988 uni versity research received only 30 percent of federal HTS re sources compared with 45 per cent for federal laboratories, "and many innovative research proposals continue to go un funded." The funding shortage "affects young investigators entering the field most severely, but even proven contributors have had difficulty getting ade quate support," the report said. -ADVISORY COMMITTEE-A standing advisory committee of experts and stakeholders would be necessary to assist policy makers in forging a "balanced, coordinated program in an era of tight budgets," the report said. Although several advisory committees have been appointed during the past three years, including the "Wise Men" advisory committee established by Presi dent Reagan and the National Commission on Superconductivity established by Congress, "these committees were given only a temporary mandate and cannot provide the longterm technology monitoring and analysis called for in the National Superconductivity and Competitiveness Act," the report said. Currently, superconducting metals and alloys are being used in a variety of commercial appli cations in electronics and medi cine, but it took a long time to come about The phenomenon of superconductivity was dis covered in 1911 but practical superconducting materials were not found until the 1960s. Over the past three years the "intense worldwide research effort on HTS has produced re markable progress," the agency reported. And although contending that HTS continues to be a "promising field where diligence and patience could yield great dividends ... a longterm, basic research effort is needed to avoid wasting large sums on premature development i projects." -....J f

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( Mental Troubles I j Hit .. Indian Teens I I i AtHia 1. -:&Y11y By Chris Casteel Washington Bureau :.WASHINGTON -Indian adolescents have more serious mental health problems -including developmental disabilities, suicide and alcohol and drug abuse -than youths of other races in the United States, a government report released Thursday says. : The report by the Office of Technology Tg: sessment says the causes o~ higher ,rates of mental health problems can not be pinpointed, but it suggests several factors related to health conditions and home life may be contributors. ; Among those factors are recurring ear infections in infants that lead to heari.Qg losses and, subsequently, to learning disabilities; fetal alcohol syndrome; physi; cal and sexual abuse and. neglect; parental alcohol. ism; family disruption and poor school environments. "In addition, because of their developmental need to establish their own identities, Indian adolescents often feel particularly caught between two cultures," the report says. The technology assessment office says the Indian Health-Service has too few mental health providers to deal with the problems, noting that there is only about one provider for every 20,000 Indian youths. Oklahoma City has one mental health provider trained to work with children, the report says. Dr. Scott Nelson, who heads the mental health division of the Indian Health Service, said the division's national plan i calls for 550 mental health staff members for children and adults nationwide. New funding for this fiscal year will give the division a staff of f about 330, he said. Nelson said the study was consistent with the_ health service's own findings. He said he hoped it would help educate pub~ lie policymakers and Indian tribes about the seriousness of the problem. J.R. Cook, executive director of United National Indian Tribal Youth Inc. in Oklahoma City, a group that tries to help Indian youths overcome various problems, saig See INDIANS, Page 2 A THE DAILY ( J\' Lt\llOM/\N OKLAHOM/1 en Y, OKLA. 0 2.P?H rw 1o::;1 MAR JO 1q10 .iU(j.f?ELLE,.S -._,Indians I\ From Page 1 Thursday he was not surprised by the study's conclusions. "It seems you can look at a lot of the social problems -they just seem to be worse in most instances (among Indian children)," Cook said. Cook said the problems in Oklahoma are basically the same as those cited nation wide, though suicide may not be as prevalent. He said solutions to the problems won't be simple but added that he is alr-eady seeing some encouraging signs that negative peer pressure is helping reduce alcohol abuse among adolescents. Still, Cook said, alcohol abuse by parents is a major ..,/ problem. "There are so many youth who really do not have a stable home where they can rest and study because alcohol continues to destroy so many. homes," he said. The study was conducted at the request of the Senate Select Committee on Indian Affairs, which is considering legislation to enhance mental health services for Indians. Among the findings: v The. frequency of learning disabilities among public school students was greatest for American Indians (5.28 percent of all Indian students, compared with 4 percent for_ all minorities on average and slightly more than 4 percent for Anglo students); v In 1986, the suicide rate for 15-to 19-year-old Indians was an estimated 26.3 per 100,000 population. The figure for the same age group for all races was 10 per 100,000 population. Suicide deaths for 10-to 14-year-old Indians were approximately four times higher than that of all races; v At least 10 surveys conducted during the last 30 years show dropout rates for Indian students ranging from 15 percent to 60 percent; the range for non-Indian students is 5 percent to 30 percent; v A total of 22.5 percent of Indian adolescents surveyed in a recent Minnesota study said their parents had a drinking problem, while 14 percent of non-Indian adolescents thought their parents had a f drinking problem. /

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OAILV CHALLENGE HEW VORK, NV OAILV & SUNDAY 110,000 TUESOAV APR 10 1990 94 .iU(tflEL.L.E'S gy I -Indian kids have more emotional problems BjKAREN TIMMONS G. \ ""1 W ASHI GTON -The 400,000 Indian adolescents living on American r~serva tions suffer a higher rate of emotional problems than white children, but only 17 mental health professionals are avail able to help them, according to a report released last week According to the Off\ce of Technology Assessment report, Indian adolescents face a higher rate of suicide, substance abuse, stress, depression, anxiety and neglect than their white counterparts. They are also more likely to be physically and sexually abused, to have alcoholic parents or disrupted families and to have school related stresses. But despite the high rate of emotional distress, the report said the federal Indian Health Service funds only 17 mental health professionals train ed to serve children and teens, one-tenth the number needed. The report, "Indian Adolescent Health," notes that data on the emotional problems of Indian children and the professionals available to aid them is scarce. "The information that does exist makes clear, however, that mental health ser vices for Indian adolescents are inadequate." The 17 health professionals cited by the report serve 12 Indian Health Service areas, each covering from one to 11 states. The Billings IHS area, with more than 12,000 Inidan adolescents in Montana and Wyoming, has the most mental health care providers with nine. Five of the areas, together serving about 80,000 Indians in 16 states, have no mental health professionals trained to treat children and teens, according to the OTA report. Denise Dougherty, project director for the report, said data from a variety of studies on the frequency of various mental health problems among American teens was used to conclude that the Indian adolescents have a higher rate of emotional ills than whites, aged 10-17. "You have to piece together the the data from studies and other sources," she said, noting suicde figures show the 1986 mortality rate for Indians age 15-19 was 26.3 per 100,000 while the rate for all other U.S. races was 10 per 100,000. In the 10-14 age group, Indian suicides were four times higher than all other races combined. Doughtery said there are no figures available on the rate of mental health professionals to adolescents of other U.S. races, but the study concluded the rate shoudl about4 to 5 profession als per 10,000 adolescents. Based on that assump tion, she said, the number of professionals serving Indian reservation adolescents should be increased from 17 to about 200. The report concludes that the reasons for the high rate of emotional probelms among Indian children "are not known with ceJtainty, (but) the life situations of many Indian adolescents are filled with stressors that can lead to emotaional distress and serious mental and behavioral problems." Among these are high rates of fetal alcohol syndrome and its consequences for mental retar datibn, physical and sexual abuse and neglect, parental alcoholism and family disruption and poor school environments. "In addition," according to the report, "because of their developmental need to establish their own identities, Indian adoles cents often feel particularly caught between two 1 cultures." -. 1

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l DAILY HE~S ANCHORAGE, AK DAILY SS,567 TUESDAY APR 3 1990 BUR/fELLFS GW Cle~"UD. limits Prevention is~s~rving of emphasis ;: A recent Office of Technology Assessment had some unpromising tliings to say about oil spill cleanup technology. The office suggested that if we are to depend on cleanup measures to protect our shorelines and wildlife, we are in for repeats of the Exxon Valdez spill. 11 For one of the key lessons of the Exxon Valdez tragedy is that cleanup measures fail. Contingency plans are ignored. Mistakes are made in preparation. Readiness gets lax. Equipment breaks down, becomes lost or is simply not up to the task. Weather confounds attempts to deal with oil. The OTA study foresees no dramatic improvements in the tools skimmers, containment boom or chemical dispersants for dealing with spills. Large spills, such as the 11 million gallons bled from the Exxon Valdez into Prince William Sound, will remain immune to cleanup methods. The report predicts that any major improvements will stem from top-of-the-line equipment strategically located. Increasing the speed with which techniques could reach spilled oil would be the central component of such a plan of attack. Yet even with the best equipment able to get quickly to a spill, the OTA report foresees as little as one gallon in 10 spilled would be recoverable. This is roughly the same recovery rate anticipated with cleanup methods currently available. All of which once again reinforces the central lesson of the Exxon Valdez spill: Spill prevention is far and away the best means of approaching the entire question. As the Alaska Oil Spill Commission concluded following its study of the spill, "Prevention of major oil spills must be a fundamental goal in the oil trade since cleanup and response methods remain primitive and inadequate." Much is being done, most of it good, to better prevent oil spills. Changes in regulations and laws should improve the quality of tankers, tanker crews and escort vessels. Had these been in place March 24, 1989, the Exxon Valdez spill may never have occurred. Research into cleanup technology should be encouraged. But we deceive ourselves if we place to much confidence in it. We can, though, rely on sound spill preyention measures and these give us the best chance of preventing another Exxon Valdez. J

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OIL t GAS JOURNAL TULSA, OK WEEKLY 62,015 APR 23 1990 ButsBEL.L.E'S .. L -5015n ,..,,/ OTA: No improvement in U.S. spill cleanup response ;,, ;.f'7V The congressional Qffj~~ ToQbn_ology Assessment reports that U.S. capability to effectively respond to marine oil spills has not improved in the year since the Exxon Valdez accident off Alaska. OT A reported that improve ments in cleanup technology although they are not likely to be dramatic-and better organization of response efforts could reduce the risk of significant damage from a major oil spill. Sen. Ted Stephens (A-Alaska) said, "This report will be used to urge further investment in research and technology. Much more must be done to develop that technology if we are to avert disasters like the one in Prince William Sound." He said Con gress also should consider changing tax laws to give the oil industry more incentive to develop oil spill technology. OT A recommended that envi ronmental regulations be waived or streamlined to allow a more rapid, efficient response to oil spills. The agency also recommended development of dual purpose vessels for work on large spills. It said Army Corps of Engineers' dredges, for example, could be designed or retrofitted with oil spill recovery equipment and be on call to fight spills as needed. No perfect solution OT A's report said short of elim inating tankers, there is no per fect solution to the problem of offshore oil spills. OT A said they will occur' again, and the cata strophic ones will never be cleaned up satisfactorily. So pre vention of major spills must be a high priority. OT A cited mechanical contain ment and recovery as the main U.S. oil spill response method. But the effectiveness is limited, and only small percentages of oil have been recovered from major spills. "Current mechanical contain ment and recovery technology is not usually effective in waves greater than 6 ft, winds greater than 20 knots, and currents greater than 1 knot," OTA said. "Improvements in mechanical recovery technologies that can be expected from stepped up research and development efforts are unlikely to result in dramatic increases in total oil recovered from a catastrophic spill. "In general, improvements that are likely to offer greater effec tiveness for large offshore spills involve larger, more costly equipment, strategically located for a quick response." Dispersants, burning OT A noted concerns about the toxicity and effectiveness of dis persants but said available dis persants are less toxic than the oil they disperse. "But dispersed oil can be toxic until it breaks down or is diluted sufficiently, and it will impact a greater fraction of the water col umn." OTA said there is no reliable method to test the effectiveness of dispersants in field operations. In situ burning of spilled oil appears to have merit in certain situations, especially if the oil can be contained and thickened with the use of fireproof booms. This technique is not currently an important oil spill countermea sure but is being investigated further in the U.S. Some experi ments have resulted in high burn percentages and thus high removal rates. "Nevertheless," OTA said, "burning probably is limited in its applications. Igniting and keeping a slick burning may be a problem in some circumstances. In oth ers, burning may jeopardize the stricken vessel and any oil remaining on board." .. r/ {) .)

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oa11 Ull UI-IIIIIJg; Stale can't afford a mistalie 5 / )..t/ 7 j January President Bush has not By TOM LEWI I.V yet anno'unced a decision regarding We Floridians have little doubt oil exploration and drilling off the about the devastating effect an oil Florida coast. spill would have on our state. ExHe should immediately and per perts have studied the potential manently put this issue to rest by impact of oil spills and the extraorbanning oil and gas exploration dinary problem of cleaning them activities off our coast up, and have confirmed our fears. Details of the report from the In fact, a recent report from the president's Outer Continental Shelf x:=nal Office of Technology Leasing and Development Task t states that less than 10 Force have not been released, but percent of the -------, given the risks, it is hard to imagine oil has been rehow the president could decide to covered from "":'* allow oil exploration off southern large ocean Florida. spills usually At stake in his decision is the much less. fate of Florida's uniquely beautiful Floridians beaches, as well as the undersea know, too, that environment that sustains an array any significant of plant and animal life unknown oil spill would anywhere else. And the potential most surely oil resources to be gained from wash up on our R L drilling? Between 36 and 62 days' beaches. ep. ewis worth of U.S. consumption, accordSpills are not the only danger ing to the Interior Department. posed by offshore exploration and The precious natural resources drilling. Anchoring, pipeline place-we take for granted may not sur ment, and rig construction would vive attempts to recover one or two cause physical disruption. months' worth of oil Depending on the type of dnllIt is no wonder tat Florida's ing rig used, one-tenth to one-half public officials present a united acre of ocean bottom would be front on the question of oil and gas crushed at each drilling site. activity in Florida waters. The risk Operational discharges from is just too great for too little poten drilling also would have a damagtial gain. ing effect. An estimated 5,000 to The economic health of South 30,000 barrels of drilling fluids Florida depends on the intrinsic may be released from each explorbeauty of the region and the preser atory well drilled. vation of its resources. Obviously, AltholJib he received a task tourists will have little .interest in force report on the issue ba/lck in walking_ along dirty, tarred beach es, or fishing in or exploring polluted, lifeless waters. PALH BEACH POST WEST PALH BEACH, FL DAILV 152,143 TUESDAY APR 17 1990 268 SK With a majority of Floridians living and working in our marine and coastal areas, any significant spill would seriously damage al most every facet of the state's economy. The character and quality of life in Florida might never recover. President Bush can and should declare a permanent ban on oil and gas exploration off Florida's coasts. Floridians should be able to rest easy in the knowledge that -such activity will not be allowed to jeop ardize the future of our state and the Floridian way of life Tom Lewis is a Republican congressman from Florid.a. He wrote this article for The Palm BeachP~

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~A0/0 CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD I LIVINGSTON I NEW JERSEY 07039 (201) 992-6600 I /800) 631-1160 \larch 30. 1990 6:55-6:59 P\,1 MT ABC F.\-1. ~ews David Leslie reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 10/6297 Y One year after the big oil spill in Alaska. more dead animals are turning up in the area of Prince William Sound. And the Coast Guard has ordered Exxon to re-establish its s,stem for recoverin(! oih' wildlife. And accordinl! to the Office of T echnologv Assessment. state-of-the-art technu!O~''Y is inadequate for deaning up major oil spills and has improved little since the Alaska accident. .-\.bska Senator Ted Stephens told reporters what dse the office concluded. Ted Stephens: The report concludes that regardless of the technology used. the most effective response is one that is rapid. is undertaken by a profes sional. well-trained response team. Leslie: l'm David Leslie. ABC News .\,larch 31. 1990 2:U0-2:05 A\,f YlT CBS :,,;ews Betsey Rosenberg reporting: In the year since the nation's worst oil spill in Alaska. little has improved in the way of cleanup capability. A congressional study by the Office of Tech1w1L,~,-.-.\s:,,essment condudes the oil industry has o, ersold iLs ability to fight major spills. confirming that a catastrophic accident. such as the Exxon Valdez disaster. is beyond the reach of human control. A.t three past the hour. this is CBS News. 116 Words 10 Clips

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~;: --:1 t -:'"Jct'31~ 1,FA .. _;ti;.30 l 99 0 BV!f.~EUFS Oil spills inevitable, report says Seattle Times (od-ql\"o -------------provide some of what the report WASH.INGT~N The only way '1\T t / r +', t found wanting, including quicker to stop 01! spills IS to Stop transport l VO On y a e JU Ure federal response to spills and better ing oil at sea, a grim new congres-spills inevitable, but training of cleanup personnel. sional report warns. "P f h i b'll Id t h l assage o t e 01 -sp1 1 wou Not only are futur,e spills m~"'.1ta-ec no ogy ZS SO implement many of the OTA's sugble, but technology IS so mefflc1ent t'ne++',t'cient that only gestions," Stevens said. that only 10 to 15 percent of a large :JJ spill ever gets cleaned up, says the 10 t 15 p t ,f Hqwever, Mik~ Webber of the report by the Office of Techno!ogy O ercen OJ a C~nt'er for Manne Conservation Assessment. made public Friday. larue spill ever gets said other steps could be taken to The repor,t by Congress' techniO increase safety. cal researcH staff was prompted by cleaned up, the report Webber said that 29 U.S. ports last year's spill in Alaskan water.s ~y should receive updated radar-trackthe EJC?COn Valdez, the largest spill m says. ing systems to allow the Coast U.S. history. -------------Guard to monitor tanker traffic. "If The report did not take a stand on we didn't have a modern air-traffic whether the Exxon Valdez spill was Attempts to restore shoreline control system, none of us would be preventable but said the accident areas once spills have occurred have boarding aircraft," Webber said. shocked the nation from its complanot been very successful and in He also said the Coast Guard cency on oil spills. some cases have actually caused should take control of ship move-Both houses of Congress last year more environmental damage. ments in heavily trafficked areas, passed legislation stepping up oilAlaska Sen. Ted Stevens said oil-rather than just making suggestions s~ill response plans and oil-tanker spill bills pending in Congress would to skippers. safety requirements. However, the. _:._ technology office's report left little optimism about future spills. Among the findings: Mechanical containment of spills and recovery of oil, the principal U.S. cleanup method, is largely ineffective. "Even using the best technology available and assuming a timely and coordinated response effort, it is not realistic to expect that a significant amount of oil from a major offshore spill could be recov ered, except under the most ideal conditions." Dispersants may help in some cases but are limited because of con cern over toxicity. Proposals by the oil industry to locate regional response centers could aid capacity but would require close monitoring by government. 'C 3 nl n, CD ~ac :, --"' -:rg goe::e. -E. ;:r "' Q. I s:gs. C/l C --"' (1) ~-C '< iil ~-g OQ Q. =~ iii< -(1) 03 :, I

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Fort Worth Star-Telegram FORT WORTH, TEXAS D.141,!l68 MAR 26 I 990 !t.i.!1~ Crumbling systems :Local taxpayers face another challenge : -~'11 '-ii The ~ugetrud~i~WBMdelakesoutoC point that its role becomes less significant local government buagets t1itoughout the each year. Federal grants for public works United States may soon be matched, or shrank from 11 percent of the federal even exceeded, by the expenditure of budget to 5 percent during the decade just funds necessary to prevent the nation's ended. h_ighways, bridges and sewer systems from deteriorating beyond repair. 'If a new report by Congress' ~e of fechnology Assessment is anywhere near accurate and there is no reason to believe that itis not-maintenance of the national infrastructure represents the :it"ext major financial challenge that state ahd local governments will face. The time tif reckoning is near. The report, submitted to Congress last week, warned that many roads, bridges ~nd waste-management systems are in poor condition and, in many instances, repairs will be made only if state and/or local governments are willing to pay for tliem That is because the withdrawal of the federal government from financial in 'f~lvement in such projects, which began ouring the 1970s, has accelerated to the .. The situation is going to get worse. Three weeks ago, President Bush an nounced a national transportation policy that would shift still more of the cost to state and local taxpayers. "All levels of government will inevitably have to raise taxes or fees to cover (the cost ofrepairs) or they will have to elimi nate or reduce programs or services," the report said. That spells it out quite clearly. With the federal government unwisely and ir responsibly phasing out its participation in maintaining the nation's vital infras tructure, a much heavier burden will fall upon local taxpayers. If they prove to be unwilling or unable to pick up the tab, the country's transpor tation system could be in serious jeop ardy

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1tbt IDt.s :motn4'.s ~g ts~ DES MOINES, IOWA SUN 356 016 APR ll!!!i..HFI tF"S April 1, 1990 ----\-l _____ J GEORGE AITON "Second, ap'iculture ii enterin1 a new tectmoloetcal era -the biotech noloey and information technolou era -that holds ,reat promile for enhancing productivity, producin1 a safe food supply, and s111tainin1 the environment." However, OTA continues, "concern is 1rowin1 that the traditional re. search and extension system, if un changed, may be bypaued by the broadenin1 research base and emercinl technologies." The private sector, the report cau tions, "could surpua a wen ap'icul ture research and extension ayatem." "Mlulen-ortented,. Ag extension n emphasizes a "strona. mission. k oriented" public system II needed to system SID Ing soive key agrtcultaral problems anc1 to ensure that farmers and their aup-WASHINGTON, D.C. America's. port industries can quickly apply new vaunted agriculture research and ex-methods and technologies. tensiou system, wbicb hu given III a Already, says OTA, at least wide variety of food productl at very one-third of federal financing of agrilow prices and b.u kept our farmers cultural research, especially in bioamon1 the world's moat efficient protechnology, is comin1 from agencies ducen, ii becominC a bit creaky and outside the U.~. Department of Atrt lookin1 worse for wear becaUH of culture. lack of investment and direction. The USDA, the report continues, This system, long the envy of the "lacks a statement of goals" for its world, increasin&ly is ipored at science and extension prop-ams and home. ., expr only "vap plans and pti-Congress and several administra-orities." tions have refUNd to increaN flnancFor eumple, the report notes, ing, while states and U.. privai. sec-....._ there Iii no effective national strategy tor are lnvestin1 more of tbeir for. dealing with envtromnental c:hal-resources outside this system. -~-. )m,es and the losa of bioloeical and The extension and researeJI net. 1eaetic diversity resultinl from cur-w'>rk itaelf b.u no& kept up witJa D8W rent')r'Oduction practices. developmenta and CODCerDI, contbla-Further-, the OT A reports increasin1 to focua malnly on chemical-in inl competitioa and dlYilioa among tensive ways to euance production the USDA agencies wit.II roles in sci-and boost efficiency. ence, education and ext,enaion. Meanwhile, the public is payin1 Many colle1es of a,riculture, acmore attention to such issues u food cordin& to the report, rarely coopersafety and environmental quality. ate with otller collepl, IUCfl u arts Problema Pinpointed and IClencea, within* SUM uinr-Tbe Con Office of Techslty. nol~ Asseamen as w a report pmpointinl problems faciq the researcll and utemion system. Apiculture, states OT A, ''II chaqinl in at leut two diltinct ways: "First, a,ricultural research is broadeninc beyond ita traditional f~ cus on production. and man recently OD compeUtiYelMla, to allo address ilsaea of food safety and eDYtromntn tal quality. "As biotechnology is becoming more important in research," the re: port says, "considerable sums of ven ture capital have been invested in pri vate biotechnology firms for development of new products." "Oat of the Loop" Thus, the report adds, extension "has been left out of the research and problem applications loop." An "unstructured and uncoordi nated" system of ensurin1 that re search and technology is transferred to people who can use it, says the OT A, "will pose a serious risk to the current all'fculture research and extension system." The United States cannot afford to have a public sector research and ex tension system falling behind the pri vate sector and "relegated to a role of simply reacting to, reviewin1, or second-guesaing private sector research," states the OT A. All this ls apinst a backdrop of a pronouncechlowdown in U.S. agricul tural productivity, the report says, a development that endangers the sec tor's role in bolsterin1 the laUin1 overall economy. The OT A provides seYeral options for Congress, includin1 maintaining the status quo. However, tile options that make the most sense include substantial boosta in competitive ,rants for agricultural research and extension, while con tinu.tnc levels of ,uaranteed federal aid to experiment statioaa and land-irant colleces. (1

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FARMER'S ~XCH~NGE NEW PARIS, IN WEEKLY lS,000 APR 6 1990 -2525 fl!!f1{1ELLET,S MH I Extension Service Is Hurt by a Lack of Funds and Direction './ 4'/'i tJ "'1 l Des Moines Register America's vaunted agriculture research and exten sion system, which has given us a wide variety of food products at very low prices has kept our farmers among the world's most efficient producers, is becoming a bit creaky and looking worse for wear because of lack of investment and direction. Tnis system, iong the envy of ihe worid, increasingiy is ignored at home. Congress and several administrations have refused to increase financing, while states and the private sector are investing more of their resources outside this system. The extension and research network itself has not kept up with new developments and concerns, conti nuing to focus mainly on chemical-intensive ways to enhance production and boost efficiency. Meanwhile, the public is paying more attention to such issues as food safety and environmental quality. The Congressional Office of Technology Assess ment has issued a report pinpointing problems facing ffieresearch and extension system. Agriculture, states OT A, ''is changing in at least two distinct ways: "First, agricultural research is broadening beyond its traditional focus on production, and more recently on competitiveness, to also address issues of food safety and environmental quality. "Second, agriculture is entering a new technological era-the biotechnology and information technology era-that holds great promise for enhancing produc tivity, producing a safe food supply and sustaining the environment." However, OTA continues, "concern is growing that the traditional research and extension system, if un changed, may be bypassed by the broadening research base and emerging technologies." The private sector, the report cautions, "could sur pass a weak agriculture research and extension system." It emphasizes a "strong, mission-oriented" public system is needed to solve key agricultural problems and to ensure that farmers and their support industries can quickly apply new methods and technologies. Already, says OT A, at least one-third of federal financing of agricultural research, especially in biotechnology, is coming from agencies outside the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The USDA, the report continues, "lacks a statement of goals" for its science and extension programs and e,tpresses only "vague plans and priorities." For example, the report notes, there is no effective national strategy for dealing wit_}t environmental challenges and the loss of biological and genetic diver sity resulting from current production practices. Further, the OT A reports increasing competition and division among the USDA agencies with roles in science, education and extension. Many colleges of agriculture, according to the report, rarely cooperate with other colleges, such as arts and sciences, within the same university. "As biotechnology is becoming more important in research," the report says, "considerable sums of ven ture capital have been invested in private biotechnology firms for development of new products." Thus, the report adds, extension "has been left out of the research and problem applications loop." An "unstructured and uncoordinated" system of ensuring that research and technology is transferred to people who can use it, says the OT A, ''will pose a serious risk to the current agriculture research and extension system." The United States cannot afford to have a public sector research and extension system falling behind the private sector and "relegated to a role of simply reac ting to, reviewing or second-guessing private sector research," states the OT A. All this is against a backdrop of a pronounced slowdown in U.S. agricultural productivity, the report says, a development that endangers the sector's role in bolstering the lagging overall economy. The OT A provides several options for Congress, in cluding maintaining the status quo. However, the options that make the most sense in clude substantial boosts in competitive grants for agricultural research and extension, while continuing levels of guaranteed federal aid to experiment stations and land-grant colleges. .... l

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American Auoclatlon for the Advancement of Science Sc,ence serves its readers as a forum for the presentation and discussion of important issues related to the advancement of science. 1nclud1ng the presentation of minority or con fhctrng points of v1ew. rather than by pubhshmg only matenal on wh,ch a consensus has been reached Accord1ngty. all ar ticles pubhshed m Sc1ence--1nclud1ng ed1tonals. news and comment. and book reviews-are signed and reflect the 1nd1v1dual views of the authors and not off1c1al points of view adopted by lhe AAAS or the InstItu1Ions with which the authors are afhhated Publisher: Richard S Nicholson Editor: Daniel E Koshland, Jr News Editor: Ellis Rub1ns1e1n Managing Editor: Patricia A Morgan Deputy Editors: Ph1l1p H Abelson (Engmeer,ng and Applied Sciences), John I Brauman (Pnys,cal Sciences) EDITORIAL STAFF AHlstant Managing Editor: Monica M Bradford Senior Editors: Eleanore Butz, Martha Coleman, Barbara BUSINESS STAFF Fulfillment Manager: Marlene Zendell Bueln-Stall Manager: Deborah R,vera-W,enhold ClaHlfled Advertising Supervisor: Amie Charlene King ADVERTISING REPRESENTATIVES Director: Earl J Scherago Traffic Manager: Donna Rivera Trllfflc Manager (Recruitment): Gwen Canter Advertising Salea Manager: Richard L Charles Marketing Manager: Herbert L. Burklund Employment Sales Manager: Edward C Keller Sales: New York, NY 10036 J Kevin Henebry, 1515 Broad way (212-730-1050), Scotch Plains. NJ 07076 C Richard Callis, 12 Unam, Lane (201-889-4873): Chicago, IL 60914: Jack Ryan, 525 W H,gg,ns Rd. (312-885-8675), San Jose, CA 95112. Bob Brindley, 310 S. 16th St. (408-998-4690), Dorset. VT 0525t Fred w Dieffenbach, Kent H,11 Rd. (802-867-5581), Damascus, MD 20872 Rick Sommer, 11318 Kings Valley Dr (301-972-9270), U K Europe Nick Jones. +44(0647)52918: Telex 42513, FAX (0647) 52053 Information for contributors appears on page XI of the 22 December 1989 issue Editorial correspondence, including requests for permission to reprint and repnnt orders, should be sent to 1333 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20005. Tele phone 202-326-6500 Advertising cor~dence should be sent to Tenth Floor, 1515 Broadway, New York, NY 10036. Telephone 212-730-1050 or WU Telex 968082 SCHERAGO, or FAX 212-382-3725 13 APRIL 1990 SciENCE I/' f\d) 13 APRIL 1990 VOLUME 248 NUMBER 4952 The Lost U.S. Excellence in Manufacturing Americans are accustomed to thinking of their country as leading the world in technology. But when they do, they are living in a dream world. "American manufacturing has never been in more trouble than it is now." The quotation is the first sentence of a report issued by the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) detailing factors contributing to a continuing decline in U.S. manufacturing capabilities.* The toughest challenge in manufacturing technology is coming from the Far East. Korea and Taiwan are newly strong competitors. But Japan's record is unique. It has led all major countries in productivity growth for decades. It has become preeminent in important industries that were once dominated by Americans. The Japanese success is attributable largely to great competence in manufacturing technology. They have been alert to opportunities to improve existing products and have made the necessary capital investments to create or obtain superior production equipment. They have been skilled in using equipment., organizing work, and managing people to make the products. The United States has most of the world's best universities and some of the best industrial laboratories. It excels at making scientific and technical discoveries. But foreign companies and especially the Japanese have repeatedly beaten U.S. firms in getting new and improved versions of products to market while keeping quality high. The reasons for inferior performance in the United States are many, and they are described in the OTA report. Weaknesses include deficiencies in capital markets, labor, government, and management. A major deterrent to essential investments in technology and equipment is very high U.S. capital costs. To obtain funds necessary to meet federal budget deficits requires high interest rates. Correspondingly, the rates for industrial capital investments are even higher. The behavior of financial markets has also been detrimental. Pressures are exerted on companies by the stock market, particularly by instirutional investors and takeover raiders. For many companies the most important furure consider ation is the bottom line for the next quarterly report. Educational deficiencies constitute another handicap for American companies. On the earlier production lines, the workers used their hands, not their heads. But needs have changed. Workers who cannot cope with math or problem-solving are a liability in advanced manufacturing. In the 1960s our students performed in math as well as srudents anywhere, but now the performance is comparatively mediocre. Future excellence in manufacturing technology is likely to be dependent on applications of microelectronics. In this fast-moving field leadership in using the best in new capital equipment is usually decisive. In the past two decades U.S. industry has become steadily more dependent on foreign manufacturers for the production machinery. Japanese suppliers dominate the market for computer numerically controlled machine tools. American producers of semiconductor production equipment are fast losing the lead to Japanese rivals. Ten years ago, U.S. firms held more than three-quarters of the world market for semiconductor production equipment. By 1988, the U.S. share was down to 47% and dropping. Losses in the status of the U.S. equipment are a handicap for U.S. semiconductor producers. For some critical production equipment, U.S. users say they can only buy the latest model from Japan after it has been in wide use by Japanese producers for months. Producers of supercomputers in the United States also risk dependence on Japanese suppliers of components. The highest performance memory and biofocal logic components come only from Japan. Cray, a U.S. manufacturer of supercomputers, has at times been told that the latest and best of these components are "not yet available for export from Japan." They are, however, available to Japanese supercomputer manufacturers, and the resultant Japanese supercomputers are ready for export. Japanese skills in improving technology, in production, and in marketing are admirable. But often they engage in forms of economic warfare that have weakened this country. The United States must take steps to improve its skills and to avoid overdependence on crucial items from others.-PHILIP H. ABELSON *Office of Technology Assessment, .Wakin.~ Things Betrer: C.,mpeting 111 .\/,1n11fact11ri11g (Gmernment Printing Otfkc. Washington. DC, February 1990). EDITORIAL 125

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RADIO CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM ~5 EAST 1\/ORTHF!ELO ROAD LIVINGSTON 'NEW JERSEY 07039 ,201)992-6600 (800)631-1760 :\larch 20. l l)l)Q C:00-2:00 A~l ~ff In Touch Business Week Riley Helsinck reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 10;6297 Y You are tuned to In Touch. the radio newsstand for visually and physically print-impaired individuals. This ... Neil Farbor reporting: I\ eil F arbor, Helsinck: ... and Riley Helsinck. continuing with Business Week from March nineteenth. 1990. (A number of books are reviewed and several editorials are read. An article concerning rarnrnents.'' it says. "should boost programs to spread out of the--to spread state-of-the-art manufacturing technology among the nation's three hundred ~ind si.xty thousand small manufacturing companies. And the government should consider subsidiz ing the leasing or purchase of new machine tools to ~timubte sales of domes tic machine tool makers." Says Senator John Heinz. Republican of Pennsylvania. "OTA makes a convincing case that the government has helped turn industries into winners in the past. and that it must continue to do so." (Another article is begun.) 216 Words 18 Clips

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\ N.ew Congr~ssional Study War~s US -May-For~close Policy Options c~ t {:;;J..C/7 ..J WASHINGTON -A new stCdy, re~!II...__ cently released by the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment (OTA}._urges US lawmakers to move quickly to address outstanding telecommunications policy issues or risk letting the technology make the deci sions for them. The study, Critical Connectir vantage; equal access to comm~nica tions-based enhanced information services; the effect of new communi-_ cations technology on the democratic process; problems affecting theUS po; licymaking appar_atus; .and the;Jteroperability question. TV ---- I_~

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r-. From the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment 6 -'J. '-1 7 )"' Rural Emergency Medical Services: The average US resident will need am bulance service at least twice in his or her lifetime, and for some of these pa tients delays in receiving emergency care will contribute to death or perma nent injury. The one fourth of Ameri cans who live in rural areas, which occupy four fifths of the country's land area, face special problems in receiving emer gency care. Some rural areas have high numbers of hospital closures, problems in recruit ing and retaining health personnel, and difficulty in providing medical technol ogies commonly available in urban ar eas. Mounting concerns related to rural residents' access to health care prompt ed the Senate Rural Health Caucus to request that the OTA conduct an assess ment of these and related issues. The OTA's special report entitled Rural Emergency Medical Services was prepared in connection with this assess ment. The report is based in part on a May 1989 Rural Emergency Medical Services Workshop (cosponsored by the Department of Transportation and the OTA). Emergency medical services (EMS) include the personnel, vehicles, equip ment, and facilities used to deliver medical care to those with an unpredicted immediate need outside a hospital and continued care once in an emergency facility. The EMS systems are usually organized at the state or regional level to provide coordinated delivery in an ap propriate geographic area. Comprehen sive EMS systems have been shown to save lives and reduce disabilities. Among the EMS system components that are required are the following: quick public access, on-the-scene emergency care personnel, rapid transportation, physicians trained to provide EMS care and supervise prehospital care, different levels of hospital care for the treatment of patients with emergent conditions ranging from ''urgent care" to life-threatening trauma, EMS surveillance systems to facili tate system evaluation. A well-organized rural EMS system may enhance health care access, but evi dence suggests that not all states have developed EMS systems that have ex-JAMA, April 25, 1990-Vol 263].io. 16 tended to rural areas. What are some specific problems of rural EMS systems? Many rural areas have sparse and dispersed populations that are far from care. Poor roads, or the absence of roads, can delay EMS transport. Public access to EMS is compro mised by antiquated communications equipment. Universal access to EMS by telephoning 911 is desirable but lacking in many rural areas. Some rural resi dents must make long-distance tele phone calls to obtain emergency assis tance. Some rural areas do not have telephone service. Radio "dead spots" and crowded radio frequencies interfere with essen tial communications between rural am bulance crews and hospital-based physicians. There are shortages of prehospital care providers, many of whom are volunteers. Available rural prehospital care providers often have a less ad vanced level of training than their urban counterparts. Training and continuing education opportunities are not avail able in many rural are11'l. Rural EMS providers have difficulty maintaining specialized skills because of a relatively low volume of EMS calls. There are few innovative teaching strat egies being used to overcome this problem. There are few rural physicians trained to provide medical supervision oflocal EMS operations. Rural EMS providers often rely on old ambulances and ambulance equip ment. Air medical transportation to access specialized care rapidly is not readi ly available in some rural communities. Rural hospital emergency depart ments' physicians and nurses often do not have advanced EMS training. Rural hospitals may not have developed EMS protocols that designate the roles and responsibility for EMS among rural EMS providers. The role of the commu nity or local hospital within regionalized systems of special care, such as trauma systems, has not been well established. Rural areas often lack the mone tary resources needed to address EMS problems. Injury-related deaths would probably decline among rural residents if there were improvements in rural EMS sysJOURNAL Of AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION (JAMA) CHICAGO, IL WEEKLV 600,000 APR 25 1990 But1BELLE'S HX -3652 =---terns. Death rates from unintentional injuries are twice as high in remote rural areas than in the largest cities, and the chance of dying in a rural area, if severely injured, is three to four times higher than in urban areas. While some of the problems associ ated with delivering EMS care in rural areas to widely dispersed populations may seem intractable, many rural EMS problems can be resolved with addition al targeted resources and effective plan ning and management. Federal EMS expenditures have de clined sharply since the mid-1970s and EMS services have increasingly become a state and local responsibility. In 1988, more than 80% of state EMS funds were derived from state and local sources, either general revenues or special funds for EMS (eg, motor vehicle registration fees). Per capita expenditures for EMS in 1988 ranged from a low of 2 cents in Ohio to nearly $14 in Hawaii. (These estimates of state EMS system expendi tures include federal, state, and local sources, but exclude reimbursement for EMS services from third-party payers.) The federal role in supporting state EMS programs has waned in recent years, but evidence of serious impedi ments to quality EMS care in rural areas argues for an increased federal role. Federal resources have never been suffi cient or consistently available enough to rely on for EMS operations, but limited federal resources might successfully be used to accomplish the following: promote training of EMS providers, facilitate the development of na tional consensus guidelines or stan dards for prehospital EMS providers and EMS facilities, provide technical assistance to states, support EMS-related research and demonstration projects, provide incentives for states to implement planning efforts. It is in these areas that states contin ue to need federal leadership. -by Maria Hewitt, Study Director OTA Health Program Edltor'a Noc.: Inquiries may be directed to Roger C Herdman, MO, Assistant Director, OTA, US Congress, Washington, DC 2051 O: telephone (202) 228-6500 From the COTA 2159

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CLASSROOH COHPUTER LEARNING SAN RAFAEL, CA 8-TIHES/VEAR 80,989 APRIL 1990 BU1/?ELLE~S -1461 --11V \.._.../" r OTA RELEASES REPORT ON DISTANCE LEARNING .:1-ny In 1987 fewer than ten states were actively promoting distance learning Yet today, 1ust three years later. distance learning activ1t1es are taking place In all 50 states. and most state departments of education are prov1dIng local districts with planning and funding support. It isn't surprising, therefore, that the latest report from the U.S. Con gress OJ!.!~ qf Technology Assess ment Is dedicated to distance learning 1nl<-'12 education The new report. called Lmkmg for Learnmg: A New Course for Education, Is the OTA's first follow-up to Power On! New Tools 14 CLASSROOM COMPUTER LEARNING APRIL 1990 --------WASHINGT!Jt,J. [IC Q-7IMES/YEAR 1 794 029 MAFICH 1990 BU~!JELLE~s -460.,....Leaming Via ~~~1l!iobJ~ fic;c of Technolop Assessment reports that in 1988-89 U.S. K-12 students were offered 3.50 courses via satellite or other telecommunications link. Here's the break.down by subject. MV for Teaching and Learning, the September '88 landmark assessment of educational technology. Lmking for Learning describes several common distance learning technologies including fiber-optics, satellite, microwave, cable. Instruc tional Television Fixed Services (ITFS), and computer-based connections. According to the report, most pro1ects underway today combine two or more of these technologies and typically rely on the technology resources most readily available to the pro1ect sites. Startup costs for distance learning transmission systems can run several hundred thousand dollars. with most of this expense going to creation of the infrastructure (e g., transmission towers, cabling, etc ) needed for remote communications. In-depth project descriptions appear through out the report. and a state-by-state profile of distance learning plans and pro1ects Is included. Is distance learning effective? Linking for Learning's authors report that "little research exists that spec1f1-cally addresses K-12 distance education." However. some generali zations can be made based on the scope of the projects highlighted In /\ \ .. the report For instance It Is clear that the real power of distance learning lies not in electronically delivered lectures The most effective distance learning pro1ects seem to tap the technology's potential to provide a range of InteractIve learning experi ences that would otherwise be educationally unattainable For example, the Jason Pro1ect. led by the Woods Hole Oceano graphic lnst1tut1on and profiled In the report. uses a variety of satellite based technologies to enable students In many different locations to participate In real-time sc1ent1f1c exploration. Through the Jason Pro1ect last May, some 250.000 students in grades four to 12 explored the floor ot the Mediterranean Sea with Dr. Robert Ballard, discoverer of the sunken Titanic. This year students are traveling with the Jason pro1ect to explore Lake Champlain and Lake Ontario. To order a copy of Lmkmg for Learning, phone (202) 783-3238 or send $9 with a request for GPO stock number 052-003-01170-1 to the Superintendent ot Documents. 1 Government Pr1nt1ng Office. Washing\ ton DC 20402-9325 -0 EK l --119 Mathematica and 11Cienc:e 110 Humanities (English, art, composition) 89 Political scienc:e and history 19 18 Vocational education 9 Social studies 8

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WEON~DAY, MAY 30, 1990 A21 Robert J. Samuelson Why the War on Smog Is 'laking So Long The war against smog is one of those slippery affairs that confounds Americans. We want our government programs to be noble crusades that end with resounding triumphs. Fighting smog doesn't fit the mold. It's. a war of attrition. We are making grudging gains, but total victory is nowhere in sight. Don't expect the new Clean Air Act-now being fashioned with much fanfare by Congress-to change matters much. Still, it's real progress. Since the aean Air Act of 1970, there have been some sweeping environmental success; es. Lead has' virtually disappeared from the air. Particulates (smoke, soot) are down by : more than half. Smog is another story, precisely because it's a consequence of our mas: sive dependence on fossil fuels and petro chemicals. When hydrocarbon and nitrogen oxide emissions react with sunlight and heat, they produce ozone (molecules composed of i three atoms of oxygen). This is essentially the bar.e we call smog. I Unless you're a pollution junkie, it's easy to be misled about bow well or poorly we're doing against smog. You'll hear that about 100 metropolitan areas, with more than 110 million people, still violate the government's ozone standard. But you'll also hear that controls have sharply cut tailpipe emissions from new cars since 1970. Hydrocarbon emis sions are down 96 percent and nitrogen oxides are down 76 percent. Which statement is true? Well, both. More impressive, the average day in Los Angeles is getting better. The California Air Resources Board has evaluated smog's total severity and duration, including days when the standard is-and isn't-met. On this basis, the improvement since the late 1970s is about 50 percent Contrary to popular wisdom, tailpipe emis sions from cars and trucks aren't the main source of the pollutants that cause smog. Cars and trucks generate about a third of all hydro carbons, down from 40 percent in 1970, althou~h their share tends to be higher in places where smog is worst. But here's the Perhaps halt the cities violating the ozone catch. Only about a third of these emissions standard may ultimately be brought into com now come. from the tailpipe. The rest come pliance by changes required by the new law, from gasoline that evaporates while cars are says Robert Friedman of the Congressional traveling, fueling or simply standing. Office of Technolo ssessment. The other The upshot is that the new Clean Air Act still won't make it. They've got too far to will shift the government's tactics against go, and gains will be offset by more cars, smog. For two decades, the emphasis bas people and production. As cars get cleaner, been on strict tailpipe standards for cars ind the remainder of the smog problem also gets new controls for industry. Tailpipe standai-ds tougher to solve. A quarter of hydrocarbon will be tightened once again, but the legislaemissions, for example, come from common tion's, real focus is on the fuel itself: J:iow chemicals used by businesses and households: gasoline is made, stored and sold. ; paints, solvents, inks and cleansers. OT A Oil companies will be required to prod~ce ; doubts that the technology now exists to ordinary gasolines that don't evaporate so ; eliminate all smog. easily. (In technical jargon, the gasoline will be The "dirty" environment is one price we pay less '"volatile.") This change should prodp for the benefits of a prosperous economy. the bill's biggest reductions in hydrocacbons, Although we can use some of our wealth to far greater than the tightening of tajjpipe limit pollution, obliterating it entirely is often standards. In areas with highsmog leve~. gas impractical or prohibitively costly. It's an am stations will probably be required to install biguous exercise, but we should not deny our special nozzles on pumps to recapture 1umes gains. Our war against smog is not a failure while cars are being fueled. '. : even though it isn't yet a complete success. The most controversial measure, is "t'efor- mulated gasoline. Simply put, that's gasoline whoee chemical constituents have been altered so that it pollutes less. A few branGS are already being sold that achieve about a 10 percent reduction in emissions. The Senate version of the1 Clean Air Act specifies a 15 percent cut by 1992 for gasoline sold in the nine smoggiest cities. The House version requires a 15 percent cut by 1995 and raises that to 25 percent by 2000. No one knows preciaely .what's doable at a reasonble cost. "Reformulated gas' pits the oil lobby against the farm lobby. Each is correct about the \ Growth of cars, people and. production has tended to neutralize cleaner vehicles and fac tories. There are more than 180 million can and trucks today, up from 108 million in 1970. The nation's groea national product is about 70 percent higher. But the gains against pollution are not phony. "The real teat. iJ what t.binp would have looked like if we hadn't made changes in 1970: says econoauit Paul Portney of Resources for the Futlu'e, a Washington think tank. "The answer is Mexico City: other: As the farm lobby says, the oil compa, nies have come late to less-polluting fuels. But the oil industry accurately accuses the farm lobby of wanting the law written to force the use of ethanol-which can be made from com and other crope-in gasoline. The House-Senate conference committee that will set the Indeed, we've achieved ~mething better than a standoff against smog. Flunking the government's ozone standard means being out of compliance for a few days a year. hi some cities that don't comply, smog levela have receded. Consider Los Angeles, the country's smog capital. It misses the air quality standards about 160 to 175 days a year (about three times more than Houston.. 13 times more than New York and 25 times more than Chicago). But this represents an improvement since the late 1970s, when the standard was violated nearly 200 days annually. law's final language should reject that approach. The Clean Air Act shouldn't be turned 1 into farm relief. The law should set standards and let the oil companies meet them as inex-pensively as possible.

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~:: A'Y <1 i rJ 1,) 0 .iU.R_~ELLFS --. ---~-... PAPER VS. PLASTIC Answer 17ot in ~he bag ":~:-nil EDITORIAi i PAPER OR PlASTIC?-That:-question is asked countless times every day at grocery-store checkout counters across the nation. Trouble is, from an environmental standpoint the answer is still unclear. Many people assume that paper bags are environmentally preferable. But most paper bags are made from virgin, not recycled, paper which means more trees must be cut to produce them. Paper bags decompose rapidly in the open air but take up to six times as much space in landfills. If buried, they decompose slowly and release methane gas which contributes to the greenhouse effect. Also, they may carry names or advertisements printed with inks containing toxic heavy metals which leach into the soil. Pfastic bags are made from petroleum products, which means oil or natural gas must be drilled for, refined and transported with accompanying environmental risks. The additives, solvents and catalysts used to produce them are also pollutants although polyethylene, used for most such bags, is considered the most benign of plastics. The bags decompose slowly but they take up a lot less space in landfills. If incinerated in waste-to-energy plants, they bum as well or better than paper. "I have been thinking about this (paper vs. plastic) for two years and I haven't made up my mind yet," Howard Levenson, who did a report on garbage for the congressional Office of .Technolo~ Assessment. told The Washington Post. What's the best solution? Buying your own canvas bag and carrying it along every time you go to the store is now being, recommended. But what if you buy six bags of groceries? For the environmentally conscious shopper, life is a series of difficult tradeoffs.

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RADIO CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD LIVINGSTON NEW JERSEY 07039 ,2011992-6600 18001631-1160 \-id\" 22. !9CJO 8:00-9:00 AM MT In Touch New York Times Science Times s, J\'ia Levenson reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 10/6297 Y And now Science Times from the New York Times for Tuesday, May twenty-second. Your readers for today are ... William Layton reporting: ... William L1vton. ( The) read articles from the paper. Lavton begins reading an article entitled. "Nation's Libraries Call on Che'mists to Keep Books From Turning to Dust.") Layton: "Some questions about the method were raised by a House of Representati\'es paneL and these led to a review of book-treatment technology by the Con~ressional Office of T echnolo~ Assessment. In a 1988 report, scientists at the agency office concluded that the DEZ method seemed to offer major ad\',rntages over competing systems. but that comparison tests by independent laboratories were needed. "The congressional agency said increasingly stringent government limitations of the production and use of Freon solvents would affect the methods based on liquid solvents. Freon solvents. used in air conditioners and foam plastics, ha\ e been indicted by sciemists as harmfui ro the stratospheric ozone layer that protects life on Earth from dangerous solar ultraviolet rays." ( He finishes reading the article.) 180 Words 15 Clips

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" l\ r f; Backers of HDTV Counterattack To Overcome Bush's Opposition f n s V t r By BoaDAns Slaff Reporter of THE w ALL STREET Jot.:RNAL WASHINGTON Proponents of high-definition television, bloodied from battles with the Bush administration, are launching a counterattack to promote U.S. development of the technology. As part of that strategy, the House Democratic leadership plans to unveil a package of legislation as early as this week to boost U.S. commercial technology, including HDTV. The bill, according to lawmakers and staffers, would create a national commission to plot a strategy on HDTV and provide $50 million in Pentagon funding for the technology. In addition, the package earmarks $100 million for a new Commerce Department program in such advanced technologies as HDTV, and $200 million in loan guarantees for small businesses doing high-technology work and for U.S. firms exporting technology products. The technology jnjtjatjve, put together by House Majority Leader Richard Gephardt, m., Mo. J, and Rep. Norman Mineta m., Calif. l, packages a variety of bills and budget resolutions that have already been Introduced, but haven't become law. For instance, a House-passed bill that encourages the formation of joint production ventures is part of the package. "If you have seven separate bills, the president can pick you apart," says Rep. Mineta. "If you have one bill, he may like six parts, and it will be harder to veto." Nevertheless, the funding sought in the bill will likely be pared back because of expected administration opposition and be cause of pressure on the appropriations committees to reduce spending. Meanwhile, the HDTV counterattack advanced on two other fronts yesterday. The Office of Technology Assessment, a research arm of Congress, released a report calling HDTV crucial for "a number of technologies that will be important to fu ture generations of computer and communications equipment." Another report by Lester Thurow, dean of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Sloan School of Management, railed at the administration for failing to invest in HDTV and other commerrial technologies. "If the administration persists in this attitude," Mr. Thurow wrote in a report released by Rebuild America, a group tied.to Rep. Mel Levine. 1D., Calif. l, "the U.S. could be a second-or-third-rate industrial power in the year 2000, and President Bush will be remembered as the Herbert Hoover of U.S. industrial competitiveness." HDTV refers to a host of new technologies aimed at producing video displays with super-sharp images and sound. The first sets are expected to go on sale in Japan next year and cost at least SS,000. They would be marketed in Europe after that, and in the U.S. in the mid-19905. Prices would surely drop as sales pick up. Offshoots of the technology would be used to make wall-sized displays and computer screens. The technology also has come to sym bolize an increasingly bitter debate over the proper role of government in nurturing commercial technology. The administration has taken a hands-off approach, fig uring that U.S. companies should decide how to invest funds without guidance or money from tile government. But critics consider that view naive, given that Japanese ancf European governments are spending heavily to protect their electronics and other high-tech industries. The OT A report and an unpublished study by a Pentagon manufacturing panel detail the heavy HDTV investment made abroad. While the U.S. government and industry have probably spent about SlOO million on HDTV research, Japan Broadcasting Co. and other Japanese government agencies have invested S-tOO million in HDTV research, and private industry has added between $670 million and Sl.3 billion, the Pentagon report estimates. Japan Broadcasting has divided HDTV research pr'ojects among Japanese firms, while other government agencies have provided low-interest loans and tax breaks. Moreover, the OTA report says, the Japanese government has a new $100 million initiative, called the Giant Electronics Project, to develop a -tO-inch video display by 1996 that's not much thicker than a picture frame. The Pentagon report estimates that Japanese firms are spending Sl.3 billion developing flat-panel displays of various sizes. Electronics analysts in the U.S. and abroad consider the development of big flat paneis to be crucial for the suec~ss of HDTV because the bigger picture size shows off the technologys detail. In Europe, countries have banded into an HDT~ venture called Eureka Project 95. The first phase of project, which ended in December, cost S318 million, the OTA report says. European governments chipped in 40% of the cost. Japan has been pushing to get its system adopted as a world standard, with Eu rope so far successfully blocking its attempts. Politics is more important than technology in this effort. An international technical group organized by the Soviet Union recently compared Japanese and European systems for producing HDTV programming. In an interim report, dated June 4, and provided to this newspaper, I the Japanese system was rated superior "mainly because it was free from large area flicker." Further tests are planned. 1 The Soviet Union organized the test to help it decide which system to choose. In the U.S., meanwhile, the HDTV ef fort has been fractured, with the Bush ad ministration repeatedly turning back ef forts to increase funding for research. Congress recently freed S20 million in addi tional HDTV funding for the Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (Darpa 1, on top of S10 million already approved. But that small victory has as much to do with pork-barrel politics as with technology policy. Rep. John Murtha, ID., Penn. 1, chairman of the defense appropriations subcommittee, pushed for the additional funds largely to help a smaJI Pittsburgh company, Magnascreen Corp., congressional staffers say. !\fagnascreen has already been awarded a $1 million Darpa contract to produce a flat-panel TV, and according to Pentagon documents. could win as much as S9.5 million of the additional funds. But turning the U.S. into an HDTV com petitor would take far more money than that. Darpa has said it could use S100 mil lion annually to research flat-panel displays, and the Pentagon report recommends that level of funding. But the administration has fought to keep HDTV funding to a fraction of that, and the Pentagon ousted the Darpa director. Craig Fields, who lobbied for big increases. rr

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TV CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM June 13. 1990 7:.,0-8:00 AM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD LIVINGSTON NEW JERSEY 07039 (201) 992-6600 /800) 631-1160 ACCOUNT NUMBER NIELSEN AUDIENCE C1hle News Network Headline News Service CNN Headline News Don Harrison. anchor: 10/6297 Y N/A High-definition television--it's the latest in viewing pleasure. but a congressional report says the U.S. isn't doing its part to help finance development of the new kchnology. Eugenia Halsey reports. Eugenia Halsey reporting: High-definition TV--TV that combines movie theater images with compact disc quality sound. the wave of the future or just a pretty picture? James Curlin (Office of TechnolO'' Assessment): If we look at TV--at HDTV only as an enhanced version of the TV for a couch potato. we're missing the point significantly. Halsey: A new congressional report says HDTV's importance goes well beyond home entertainment. It says there could be all kinds of electronic spinoffs useful in schools. the military and space. but the congressional study and another report from a bipartisan group pushing investment in American industry says the U.S. is way behind Japan in promoting HDTV and other technologies. It says the government must quickly do more to support commercial research and development. The pro-industry group. which calls itself Rebuild America. is critical of the Bush administration s hands-off policy toward commercial ventures. Rep. Mel Levine (D-California): The administration seems to be in an economic time warp. but policies that worked in the l 950s won't work in the 1990s. Halsev: MIT economist Lester Thurow singles out for criticism Chief of Staff John Sununu. Budget Director Richard Dar'inan and economic adviser Michael Baskin. (SUMiVlARY: Halsey continues to report on HDTV. interviewing Lester Thurow, economist; Robert Mosbacher. commerce secretary; and Edward Hudgins, Heritage Foundation.) 250 Words 21 Clips \'1detl c::issenes ::ire av::iil::ible in anv format for a period of four weeks from air date from our affiliate: VIDEO .MONITORING SERVICES OF .-\.,\!ERIC.-\. INC. \212)736-2010

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! D Has Times Herald DALL.AS, TEXAS 0.222.147 .JIIN High-defmition TV development lags in U.S., study says THE ASSOCIATED PRESS V z.q.., j WASHINGTON -The United States lags behind Japan in development of high:de(mition tele vision, a technology that could boost innovation in other industries, a report to Congress said Tuesday. "Japan considers HDTV to be an important step into the future information society," the Office of Technology Assessment said in its report. ---The agency, a research arm of Congress, said new consumer electronics had long spurred ad vances in other fields. High-definition television promises motion pic ture-quality images and compact disc-quality sound. Proponents say its development could help re-energize U.S. electronics and computer indus tries. The Japanese have been selling studio equip ment for high-definition television since 1984 and are gearing up for large-scale production of HDTV sets for consumers, the report said. Similar efforts are being made in Eu.rope, but little work has been done in the United States on developing HDTV .. The little work done on HDTV in the United States has largely been by or for foreign-owned consumer electronics firms or by small, under funded university programs and entrepreneurs," the report said. A Pentagon agency charged with HDTV devel opment, the High-Resolution Systems Task Force, received $10 million this year for advanced TV re search. The task force has sought $100 million a year.

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OIL OAILV WASHINGTON, DC DAILY 5,DOO WEDNESDAY JUN 13 1990 .iUR(fELLE~ -'5019 = HL Non-Energy Imports Limiting Growth of Foreign Oil, Report Says fLJ/fZ {JII Nick Snow WASHINGTON The United States actually consumes more energy than statistics indicate if fuel required to produce rising non-energy imports is included, the congressional Office of Tech nology Assessment suggests in a new report. OTA estimates that U.S. gross energy use would be 9 percent higher if energy embodied in nonenergy import items was included. "Energy is increasingly being consumed indirectly, embodied in non-energy products, while the growth in the direct use of energy has been relatively small," it points out in the report, Energy Use and the U.S. Economy. It says that of the energy use increase between 1972 and 1985 due to spending on all products, only 8 percent was due to direct purch ases of products like gasoline and heating fuel. "The remaining 92 percent of the increase in energy use due to spending was indirectly induced by the purchases of non-energy products that embody energy like clothes, tires and automobiles," OTA continues. Stronger Service Demand It indicates that the bulk of the indirect energy use increase be tween 1972 and 1985 came from de mand for services. "Although the energy intensity of the service sector is low, its size and rapid growth have meant that its total energy use is larger than manufacturing's," says OTA. It identifies households as the source of much of this indirect energy demand, where such de mand outpaced direct consump tion by a foctor of three from 1972 to 1985. OTA suggests that statistics which show a leveling of domestic energy consumption fail to reflect indirect U.S. energy consumption through non-energy imports like cars and steel. "As the trade deficit has deepened, so has this indirect energy use," it points oul Higher Dependence Rate OTA estimates that the United States consumed roughly 7 quad rillion BTUs of energy during 1985 in such non-energy imports. It calculates that when this is added to direct energy imports, U.S. de pendence on foreign energy that year comes out 50 percent above commonly accepted statistics. "In terms of recognizing our dependence on foreign sources for energy or our global contribution to problems like climate change, it is important to include estimates of the energy associated with non energy imports," maintains OT A. "Failing to make this adjust ment, it would be easy to show de clining energy use simply by importing energy-intensive final products and intermediate inputs from abroad," it goes on. Once such an adjustment is made, the 39 percent drop in inported energy from 1977 to 1985 drops to 21 percent, OTA discloses. The report further concludes that: Energy savings also can be achieved indirectly. Nearly a fifth of the energy use reduction achieved from 1972 to 1985 from changes in business production processes came as less energy-intensive inputs like plastic were substituted for more inten sive inputs like steel, according to OTA. It adds that almost all of these savings took place in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Even excluding energy imbodied in non-energy products, energy product imports still make up a significant U.S. trade deficit componenl OTA says that while the portion of all imports that are energy (rep resented in the petroleum and products category) dropped from a 1977 peak of 42 percent to 18 per cent in 1988, "oil imports are still a higher fraction of constant dollar imports than autos, all consumer goods, or all industrial supplies and materials (excluding oil). "Of the major mechandise trade categories experiencing a trade deficit in 1988, oil represented almost a quarter of the total and its share seems to be increasing," it continues. "The share of oil that comes from imports has risen to 44 percent, almost matching our highest level of dependency set at 46 percent in 1977." A leveling of U.S. energy use from 1972 to 1985 was not solely due to improvements in energy efficiency, but was also caused by structural shifts in the economy. Nearly two-thirds of the declin ing factors that offset the higher energy use due to economic expan sion was the result of improved energy efficiency, OT A says. But it identifies a realignment of the eco nomy's industrial composition as the force behind the reamaining third. "The output of the economy shifted toward less energyintensive industries such as ser vices," it explains. "This shift was caused by changes in the mix of what consumers demanded and by technological improvements." OTA calculates that ifthese 1972-8.5 structural changes had not hap pened, the energy used by the United States in 1985 would have been 9.5 quads, or 13 percent, higher than it was. The trend of level energy use established from 1972 to 1985 was broken from 1985 to 1988 when energy use increased 5.7 quads, or 8 percent. OTA says that much of that increase can be traced to strong eco nomic growth (U.S. gross national product grew at a rate of 3.6 per cent yearly, compared to 2.5 per cent in the 1972-85 period) and a shift in the mix of consumption toward more energy-intensive products. "Of the 10 major sectors of the economy, manufacturing increased its share of total ship ments the most from 1985 to 1988, growing from 32.9 percent to 33.8 percent of all shipments," it notes. OTA adds that this increase halted a downward trend that had pre vailed since 1972. But OTA also emphasizes that economic growth is not necessarily contingent on using more energy. "In fact," it says, "slow economic growth (between 1972 and 1985) tended to cause changes that impeded strides toward improving energy efficiency." Economic growth rate predictions suggest that energy use will increase less in the future than it did between 1976 and 1988. OTA says that while the annual growth in U.S. GNP was 2.9 percent during those 12 years, the Labor Department's moderate economic growth scenario for 1988 to 2000 assumes a 2.3 percent growth rate. "The manufacturing sector is predicted to benefit from in creases in exports as the trade de ficit narrows, while being hurt by decreases in defense spending as efforts are made to decrease the budget deficit," OTA's report suggests. It indicates that while manufac turing's output share is predicted to climb, much of that growth will be in high-technology products that have relatively low energy intensities.

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HOOERH HEALTHCARE CHICAGO. IL WEEKLY 82,000 ttAV 28 1990 BUB.BEU.E'S -4454 -G 2 9 7 Y' CAPITAL biciUT HOUSE, SENATE TO CONSIDER MEDICMP ,_ AllON Legislation aimed at protecting the elderly from dupicat:ive ano costly Medigap insurance policies has been introduced in both the Senate and House of Representatives. The proposals would prohibit insurance salesmen from selling plans that duplicate existing coverage and would require insur ance companies t.o return at least 70 cents in benefits for every dollar paid in premiums. The proposals also would limit sales commissions on the Medigap policies, require insurers t.o guarantee renewal and direct the National Assn. of Insurance Commissioners to develop a simplified, uniform package of benefits. Medigap plans pay expenses not covered by Medicare. REPORT CRITICIZES PAYMENT POLICY FOR DRUG. Medi care patients who get kidney dialysis treatments at home can't take advantage of a new anemia-fighting drug because of re-strictive government payment policies, according to a new report from Con~I,f;' Office of Technology Assessment. Epogen, a g manufactured by Thousand Oaks, Calif.-based Amgen, gained Medicare approval last year, but the approval only applies when the drug is administered in a physician's office or in a dialysis center. If coverage were extended beyond those treatment sites, Medicare's total costs for the drug would rise but patient expenses would drop, the report said. An annual supply of the drug costs $5,000 to $6,000 a year for the 114,000 Medicare patients who reeeive kidney dillyaia, tee raport said. In February, Medicae paid $13.5 milllD a aums for 31,000 patients treated in dialym een&aw. :, Q ,; f' er. I .:.:; "...! c:n ...J ...-4 z ...-4 <;> ...-4 <: ....; -~I z:
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I -------1~:-:ROMICL~: 1JF H [Grit:R EDUCATION 1~Ai:iHINGiON, DC ,a-i!MES/YEAR 79,052 ~:!'lu l" 1sno : !111 D .... 1 -~ 1431 BU{l.RELt.E~s i1', .,.-\.__./ l A new study has documented a common complaint by scien tists: that demand for federal research dollars is growing much faster than the s~yply of money to meet it.' t..,, r The study, a background paper from the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, concludes that the compet1t1on for re search support has grown dramati cally keener in recent years as the number of research proposals sub mitted to major federal research agencies has continued to grow. And the proportion. of research proposals that actually receive support has gone down. Federal re search budgets have not been going up fast enough to keep pace with the extra demand. "If competition continues to grow, creative energies will flow into proposal writing, rewriting, and review rather than the conduct of research," the report states. "Many scientists argue that this is already the case." The National Science Founda tion, for example, reviewed 14,499 proposals in fiscal 1977 and sup ported about 46 per cent of them. In 1988, the agency reviewed 26,802 proposals and ended up sup porting about 28 per cent of them. The paper is a prelude to a more exhaustive study on the outlook for basic research in the 1990's. That study is also being conducted by the Office of Technology Assess ment, which advises Congress on scientific and_ technical issues. Copies of the paper, "Proposal Pressure in the 1980s: An Indicator of Stress on the Federal Research System," are available free from the Science, Education, and Trans portation Program, Office of Tech nology Assessment, Washington 1 20510-8025. -<:OLLEEN CORDES 1 I I / CHEMICAL t ENGINEERING NEWS WASHINGTON, DC WEEKLY 135,000 MAY 7 1990 I I I I BuMELLE~s -1372 NL f L--Acadennc research funding ~ed inflexible lo'l.. <-r7 Big changes are inevitably in the offing for the university research system, under threat from a growing monster known as "proposal pressure," according to a paper just issued by Congress' Office of Technology Assessment. The study is part of an ambitious top-to-bottom assessment of basic research's economic and social environment. Its project director is sociologist Daryl Chubin. Proposal pressure is the number of research proposals submitted to an agency compared with the number actually funded. Everyone doing or funding academic research knows about it and its causes, in agonizing detail: young, promising researchers not getting funded, funds channeled according to geography rather than talent, Congress meddling with the peer review system, economic competitiveness stresses distorting the goals of basic research, and research dollars being wasted away by overhead costs. As OT A documents, the proposal pressure ratio is going up and up. OTA surveyed several agencies and reports that in the case of National Science Foundation, the number of proposals reviewed increased from 14,499 to 36,802 between 1977 and 1988. But the proportion actually funded declined from about 46% to 28%. More or less the same decline held for the Veterans Administration, National Institutes of Health, and the Air Force. "The system that appeared flexi& May 7, 1990 C&EN /\ .. v' ble and di.-erse is now being tested," says OT A. "Scarce resources require choices. And choices attenuate the flexibility and diversity that have undergirded the unparalleled creativity of U.S. science. This study finds evidence of an overburdened research system. How to cope in the 1990s may be as much an organizational as a fiscal challenge to the federal government." The paper ends up suggesting that the university "management mechanisms and models" of the soaring 1960s may no longer be "sufficient or appropriate" for the 1990s. It says that if competition for research funds continues to grow, "creative energies will flow into proposal writing, rewriting, and review rather than in the conduct of I research. Many scientists argue that this is already the case .... A frame work for weighing alternatives, making research choices, and plugging them into the political process [is] lacking." I i i Wil Lepkowski i -----__ J

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TV CLIPS 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD I LIVINGSTON I NEW JERSEY 07039 (201) 992-o600/ (800) 631-1160 DATE TIME NETWORK. PROGRAM May 4, 1990 ACCOUNT NUMBER 5:00-5:30 PM NIELSEN AUDIENCE Cable News Network Headline News Service CNN Headline News Videotext Report: Qt{Ji:eggo tr:tihutte CHICAGO, ILL IL-208 0.758,464 APR 18 199 0 BU(j,f!ELLFS An Office of Technologv Assessment survey shows .J8o/c t"Jf scientists think too much research money is spent on AIDS; 44o/c disagree. .1Amount':ot\:AIDS.;runc1srd~ x~a_'-,. > ::-.-ts' .., ';' II -i ~~;,<~ct~J~r ~:~: I WASHiN,GTON -_(AP'rt-Exfunding; for 6incer,. de;pite. the perts ; are. almost evenly,. divided much. greater. number of death$ j 'about ~~e~er the federal g0".em-: ._,from these latter diseases;" the I ment IS taking ~oo much money> Office of Technology Assessment away frorri: cancer, heart disease:.said It said about 10 percent of and other' medical studies to sup:: the total National Institutes of port AIDS research, according to Health _1990 budget goes to HIV a survey by the Office of Tech. funding .. _, ;.:. no)ogy Assessment .. . ,>. 1:; < ;~ '. To' d~te~~!. -the' f~deral' I '!he ,survey, released Tuesday,'. ;AJDSspending 'is'.affectingother t SfUd most of the expe~ also. be-. biomedical '.fields, :the Office of' I _lieve. ~s research has_ .m~de:. Technology 'Assessm.'ent sent ,many_un~rtant ~ntnb~~onsto questionnaires. to_ 400 scientists, advan~ m 1_the b1omedical. lffi.d :( arid received completed replies i. behaVI~ral_.:SCien~'.' and_tha~ "}l"-<,:,froml48. :'/.: ; ,: ): ,1 :tually-; every_ medical speciality 'f:"1 ,.,,, :.1 ... ,, :-: ,~ ,.:---, i l has benefited;:to .. some degree,--. '.Forty-eight percent. of .those l from money spent on A.IDS _whq re~ponded to the survey l --~tu~~ki:j~i~dihi.,~or ~~i~;,\;~c~r r:}~~~{~ili~g t:. t and prevention of.acquired im-: been .div_erted to AIDS reseaIT.;h 1 mune deficiency syndrome totals from ,?~er, fields. F9rty-four J?erl about $2.9 billio_1_1 for the fiscal / cent ~sagre~ or stron!?,Y d1sa year that ends _this October. Re,.greed_,'Y1.~-~s ~~tement .. ... l search into the human im.';Asked to evaluate' federal 'i munodeficiency virus, which spending for AIDS research, 45.7 e:auses. ~?. -.~'\is: '.11'0. -~t. $ L~ 6:. b. ii.. : pe~cent. of the. sci.entis. ts ~~rveyed lion. ,,.;, .... ..... ..... 1 said the amount was about 10/6297 Y N/A :' "Critics_pf.iing ~expenditures right," 18:1 percent' said i~ was on HIV di"3SO."point OUt that too !ugh, 31.2 pen:ent said" wasj j HIV funding has exceeded fundtoo low and 5.1 percent had no ,, ing for_ heart disease and rivals opinion. :, -weeks from air dare from our affiliate: 1/".'-.. A, INC. (212)736-2010

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'/,,,.! _) NEW$"-) AIDS RESEARCH FUNDING--------------------------Budg~t division disputed dents thought that AIDS research had led to advances in a broad range of medical disciplines including oncology, neurology, haematology and pulmonary medicine, and to a better understanding of dementia and multiple sclerosis. Washington O o< "17 V THE long-standing and so~imes heated debate over whether the US government spends too much of its biomedical budget on AIDS continues to split researchers into two almost equally large camps, according to the results of a survey released last week by the US Office of Technology Assessment (OTA}'-But regardless of their views on11iebudget shareout, most researchers agree that the assault on AIDS is leading to advances that spill over into other biomedical re search fields. Almost half (48 per cent) of the 148 people who responded to the survey "agreed or strongly agreed" that "too much research funding has been diverted to AIDS research from other fields", while almost as many (44 per cent) "dis agreed or strongly disagreed" with the statement. Although the majority of those who strongly agreed with the statement were not receiving funds for AIDS research, more than 40 per cent of AIDS researchers also agreed with it. Government funding for the study of AIDS has soared since AIDS was first diagnosed in the United States. The total budget now stands at almost $3,000 million and the National Institutes of Health this year will spend about 10 per cent of its $7,100 million budget on AIDS-related projects. Although the pace of budget increases seems set to slow, with the Bush administration requesting only a 7 per cent increase in the AIDS budget for 1991, funding for research on AIDS already exceeds that for heart disease and rivals that for cancer, despite the greater number of deaths from those diseases. Critics of the high level of AIDS funddisciplinary lines", a view endorsed by the OTA survey. More than half its respon dents thought that AIDS research had led to substantial advances in fields such as virology, immunology and molecular biology, and more than one-third felt that AIDS research had "contributed substan tially" to advances in diagnostics and drug development. On the other hand, genetics, pathology and biochemistry were fre quently cited in the survey as having received "little to no" contributions from AIDS research. At least 40 per cent of survey responLast year, Congress made the first moves towards developing a more flexible system of funding for AIDS research. The appropriations committee responsible for the National Institutes of Health budget gave institute directors the power to shift money earmarked for AIDS research to other fields, as and when they consider it advantageous to do so. And according to Fauci, the extra flexibility is already pro ducing research dividends. David Conca, HATURE LOHOOH .,. WEEKLY r..H 36,uoo APR 26 1990 -4698 AHA NEIJS CHICAGO, IL 50-TIHES/VEAR 45,000 CI ing have been particularly scathing about APR lS 1990 the practice adopted by some agencies of proposals when they feel they are receiv-3207 HX actually requesting AIDS-related grant I BURHELLPS ing an insufficient number of them. This ..__ practice can 1ead to funds being siphoned ,- h tal h Ith,... bl ms away from the poo1 avai1ab1e for unsolicir OTA report details Indian yout s men ea .. ro e ted grant propos~ls of highe_r quality. G :'.l. 9 ? y ( Yet the dc_,minant sentiment of ~he Higher rates of suicide;fieglect and sexual abuse contribute to the mental health problems of OTA survey is not that AIDS spending dol tN !iv Amer"cans accorclingtoareportbytheOfficeofTechnology~ssessme~t(OTA). should be cut nearly three-quarters of a escen a e 1 al co with h" her rates researchers felt that federal spending on Compared with their white counterparts, adolescent Native Amencans SO pe 19 AIDS was about right or even too low. of depression, anxiety, physical abuse, substance abuse, stress and emotional proble~s. Anthony Fauci, director of the National "We have learned that, in a number of categories, Indian adolescents have more senous mental In_stitiute o~ Allergy and Infectious health problems than any other group in the U.S. population," said Sen. Daniel K. Inouye (D-HI), Diseases, be~1eves that the message of the chainnan of the Senate Select Committee on Indian Affairs. OTA report 1s that more money should be h alth rke trai"ned to rk "th dl"ldren or adolescents spent on biomedical research in general. "In this entire country, only 17 mental e WO rs WO 1 "Rather than being concerned about are available to address the needs of more than 400,000 Indian youths, he added. "'!aking the slice of t_he _pie for AIDS so Inouye said that 200 more mental health workers are needed to achieve parity with the mental ?g, per~~ps the pie itself should be health care provided for the country's non-Indian population. increased he says. th OTA vid 21 rcy options for congressional consideration and a set of Fauci also contends that the benefits of In its report, e pro es po 1 AIDS research have "transcended inter-recommendations for expanding the mental health seMceS available to Indian youths. . The OTA report is available from the Government Printing Office. Call 202/783-3238. l

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SCIEHCE l1AGAZIHE WASHINGTON, DC WEEKLY 153,192 APR 27 1990 BU{J/?EU.PS -6043 111 Spinoffs from AIDS Research '<<(1 y Conventibnal wisdom says the war on cancer may not have cured the disease, but it gave a tremendous boost to a broad spectrum of biomedical research. Will there be similar spino!ls from the billions of dollars the government is spending on AIDS research? Yes, according to a survey sent to 400 members of the Institute of Medicine by the Congressional Qlfu:c:_CJfTecl11.2_o~gr_ Assessment. I --. Of the 147 respondents, more than halffrlt AIDS research had "contributed substantially to the basic science fields of virology, immunology, microbiology, and molecular biology." Nearly half felt federal spending on AIDS is at about the right level, while about one third. thought it is too low. But, as the chart shows, opinion was sharply divided on whether too much money had been taken from other fields for AIDS research. How representative is OTA's sample? That's hard to say. Just under half reported. they ,0,.----------------. had no external funding, ,, and 16% were presently receiving federal sup-port for AIDS research. The respondents were primarily physicians ( 64% ), mostly over 50 (79%), and 56% de30, ,:,o, scribed fCSCarch as their o .. Strongly 1gri~dious diseases; 4:i perunt said it has increasl'd insights 011 cancer and about per Cl'nt i11dicatecl it had imprond u11dt>rsla11ding about till' blood. tlw brain and the lungs. Till" Off1cP of 'll_clrnolog\' i\ssess111e11I. an a11alvtical agencv that serves Congress. rn11-duct~d the written surve\' in Fchruar\' at the request of a House Government Op,rations subcommittee. About :l7 percl'nt of tlH' l(J(I scientists who recl'iYed tlH' poll Ii\ mail [l'Sp(llllkd

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I r ELECTROHIC 8USIHESS NEWTON, 14A 23-TntES/VEAR ~3.6SQ APR 30 1990 -2268 BU(j/JEU.FS DI SOFTWARE Will Conm-ess tighten software copyrights? lP~'fiY PRFSSURE IS BUILDING on ability of software; who controJs Congress to pass stronger intellec-ownership; reverse-eqineering, tual property laws to safeguard the and international standards. U.S. share of the world software But don't expect Co~ to act market. The nonpartisan congrestoo swiftly on all of thJS. The last sional Office of Technology Asmajor event in the 200-year his,. sessment (ofA), 1n posmg a senes tory of U.S. copyright and ~t of questions to Congress to ponder laws was the passage of the-Copyon software, concluded in a recent right Act of 1976; before ttiat: report that action is warranted. 1909 when copyright duration and According to the OTA paper, renewal proviS10ns were changed.. "Computer Software & Intellec-More than a decade has paSICd. tual Property," "The overwheJmsince Con~ confumed -die ing lead the U.S. holds in the copyrightability of computer pro global computer software market grams with the Computer Softmay be at risk without effective ware Copyright Act of 1980. intellectual property laws." The Indeed, alludes a source on the United States dominates the world subcommittee, the-legislative software market with a 7()11(, mar-process of evaluating U.S. soft ket share, producin~ $60 billion ware protection is in the "formaannually in domestic sales and tive stage. The (OTA) report. raises services, the OTA report says. a lot more questions than it an-The report was the focal point swers." The specific questions the of an oversight hearing before the report raises deal with.-software House Judiciary Subcommittee on definition, industry structure and Courts, Intellectual Property and enforcement. the Administration of Justice. The OTA report is available Emerging from the March session from the Government Printing Of. and one held last fall were four fice in Washington. key software issues: the patent MARVIN GREENE i I ...

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Epidemiology Cervical Cancer Age Barriers Are Obsolete For Pap Smears, Report Says The increased incidence of invasive disease in older women underscores the need for regular screening. Washington--A government study has affirmed cancer experts' contention that Pap smear screening affords pro tection against cervical cancer regardless of a woman's age. A report released by the Office of Technology Assess~~t concluded that -Pap smears represent a cost-effective preventive measure for elderly women. The Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1989 has mandated Medicare coverage for triennial Pap tests for beneficiaries, beginning July l. HHS Secretary Louis Sullivan has the op tion to authorize more frequent screening for women considered at high risk for cervical cancer. The OIA study found that Pap smears would result in a $1,453 cost per year of life saved if done every five years, rising to $5,956 for triennial and $39,693 for annual screens. According to the report, the costs are in line with other mandated preventive services for the elderly, such as mammography and pneumonia vaccination. For high-risk women, the cost per life-year saved would be about $1,000 with annual screening, and less frequent Pap smears would save money-a rarity with any preventive procedure. The OTA researchers concluded that just one test for each of the estimated 1 million American women aged 65 would save 14,400 years of life. The OTA's literature review re vealed that screened women have a twoto 10-fold lower risk for cervical cancer than do unscreened women. The difference held up across all age groups. The study lends credence to Pap smear guidelines adopted by the American Cancer Society, American College of Obstetricians and Gyne cologists, and National Cancer Insti tute. Spokeswomen for the ACS and ACOG told MWN that their groups and the NCI recommend Pap smears for all women beginning at age 18 and for sexually active women of any age. After three normal annual tests, screening can be done less often at a physician's discretion. The recommen dations have no age cap. Disease pattern. Women aged 65 and older account for 25% of all new cervi cal cancers each year. However, they are more likely to have invasive disease and advanced invasive cancer at diag nosis, according to the report. The OTA researchers suggested that the disease pattern in elderly women may reflect a significantly low er rate of screening. In previous stud ies, estimates of the number of elderly women who have never had Pap smears have ranged from 11 % to 61 %. A lack of awareness about Pap smears or cervical cancer is not in evidence among elderly women seen at the University of Texas M.D. Ander son Cancer Center in Houston. Gyne cology chairman Taylor Wharton told MWN that his older patients have a great deal of interest in their health and how to maintain it. His work with low-income and minority patients has left him with the same impression ... I have not seen any great lack of aware ness. The service issue in many cases is that the patient can't afford it." -CHARLES D. BANKHEAD MEDICAL UOQLD NEWS SAN FRANCISCO. CA 122 1JOO APR 9 19qn

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I Solving Urban-Traffic Problems ~' _...,' 0 I Smart cars and smart roads can reduce congestion, cut down on harmful emissions, and improve highway safety, according to the United States Office of Technology Assessment (OT A). Advanced vehicle/highway sys tems (A VHS), an umbrella term for several interdependent vehicle and road technologies, include technol ogies for collision warning and avoidance, automatic vehicle iden tification and billing, driver informa tion and route guidance, weighing vehicles in motion, advanced traffic operations flow management, and automatic vehicle control. If employed with adequate atten tion to human factors, driver infor mation and collision avoidance technology can speed travel by pre-FUTURIST BETHESO~. HO BX-MONTHLY 30,000 MR-APR 1990 venting accidents and congestion and improve safety by warning motorists of hazardous road and traffic conditions so they can respond accordingly, says OTA in a new report, Advanced Vehicle/Highway Systems and Urban Traffic Problems. Sufficiently advanced auto matic vehicle control technologies can respond even when appropriate action is not taken by mo torists. In the area of commercial and fleet operations, technologies for automatic vehicle identification, weighing in motion, automatic vehicle classification, and auto matic vehicle location have already been shown to improve efficiency by reducing administrative stop times and enabling effective distri bution of fleet vehicles. If implemented, existing infor mation-level A VHS technologies could increase the number of ve hicles that highways can accommodate by 10%-20%, says OTA. However, if road capacity is in creased and road travel made more desirable, more motorists can be expected to take to the roads, coun teracting some reductions in con gestion. Other strategies, then, such as car pooling, high occu pancy vehicle (HOV) lanes, use of alternative fuels, congestion pric ing, and other forms of transporta tion management, must also be pursued aggressively. A VHS technologies pose no con flicts with these other strategies and can be used in conjunction with them, according to QTA. Moreover, A VHS can bring about improvements in road safety and traffic flow regardless of future changes in urban living and work ing habits. The multiple benefits from ad vanced vehicle/highway systems argue for immediate further investment in research, development, and operational testing, says OT A. Extensive public-private partner ships are necessary for the development of these safer, more-efficient road-transportation systems. Source: Office of Technology Assessment, U.S. Congress, Washington, D.C. 20510-, 8025. 1 t

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I A22 THE NEW YORK TIMES NATIONAL WEDNESDAY, MAY 23, 1990 U.S. Sees Possible Cancer Tie to Electromagnetism By PHILIP SHABECOFF Special to The New York Times WASHINGTON, May 22 A draft report by the Environmental Protection Agency says there is a possible link between cancer and low-level elec tromagnetic fields generat~d by common appliances and power lines. In particular, the agency's survey of existing human health studies and laboratory tests on animals found that children exposed to such radiation seemed to face a higher than normal risk of developing leukemia. Adults do not appear to be unduly affected by electromagnetic fields created by appliances like electric blankets or toasters, which emit low levels of radiation, the survey found. 'J3ut it also found preliminary evidence that workers who are exposed to such fields throughout the day from equip-.... :c C3 :z: H 0-._ -.0 I ...., >N 0 ....I :z r-:: ....I a, :::, -.0 0") ::0 :z >-,.... 0 q ::z: ,-.:::i :::, :c :z r.... :.n q 0 :I: ::c ..:,> > :z -l
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