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Quarterly Report to the Technology Assessment Board, January 1 - March 31, 1991

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Title:
Quarterly Report to the Technology Assessment Board, January 1 - March 31, 1991
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Quarterly Report Office of Technology Assessment
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Office of Technology Assessment
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Office of Technology Assessment
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English
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69 pages.

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Technology assessment ( LIV )
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federal government publication ( marcgt )
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Washington, D.C.

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This is a quarterly report detailing the budget and progress of the Office of Technology Assessment.

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University of North Texas
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University of North Texas
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This item is a work of the U.S. federal government and not subject to copyright pursuant to 17 U.S.C. §105.

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IUF:
University of Florida
OTA:
Office of Technology Assessment

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Quarterly Report to the Tech no logy Assessment Board Jan. 1-Mar. 31, 1991 OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES

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i;'J Office of Technology Assessment Congressional Board of the 102d Congress GEORGE E. BROWN, JR., California, Chairman TED STEVENS, Alaska, Vice Chairman Senate EDWARD M. KENNEDY Massachusetts ERNEST F. HOLLINGS South Carolina CLAIBORNE PELL Rhode Island "" :'.1 House MORRIS K. UDALL Arizona : --~ a~JOHN D. DINGELL __ Michigan CLARENCE E. MILLER Ohi~ 1 .. --: .. ._, ORRIN G. HATCH-~Ii-;:l. br..::. Utah ? ., l :J:~DON SUNDQUIST:~ ; CHARLES E. GRASSLEY .; -' -, -Iowa Tenne~!ieeri.._, ;:, ... f: :-. : AMO HOUGHTO~' New York JOHN H GIBBONS (Nonvoting) CHASE N. PETERSON, Chairman President Advisory Council MICHEL T. HALBOUTY Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer Michel T. Halbouty Energy Co. SALLY RIDE Director, California Space Institute University of California-San Diego Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of Utah Salt Lake City, Utah JOSHUA LEDERBERG, Vice Chairman Professor Rockefeller University New York, New York CHARLES A. BOWSHER Comptroller General of the United States Washington, D.C. LEWIS M. BRANSCOMB Director of Science, Technology & Pub/Jc Policy Program Albert Pratt Public Service Professor Harvard JFK School of Government Cambridge, Massachusetts Houston, Texas NEILE. HARL Professor Department of Economics Iowa State University Ames, Iowa JAMES C. HUNT Chancellor Health Sciences Center University of Tennessee Memphis, Tennessee HENRY KOFFLER President University of Arizona Tucson, Arizona Director JOHN H. GIBBONS LaJolla, California JOSEPH E. ROSS Director Congressional Research Service The Library of Congress Washington, D.C. JOHN F.M. SIMS Vice President, Marketing Usibelli Coal Mine, Inc. Fairbanks, Alaska MARINA v.N. WHITMAN Vice President & Group Executive Public Affairs Staffs Group General Motors Corporation Detroit, Michigan

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CONTENTS I. COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS A. Summary of FY '90 Completions, Ongoing Work in FY '91, and New Starts Through March 31, 1991 .......................... 2 B. Products Delivered During the Quarter 1. Reports.:: ................................................ 3 2. OtherT'Background Papers and Administrative Docunients . . . . . . . . . . . 10 3. Staff .. _Memos. or Letter Memoranda .. ....................... 11 4. Testimony -~ . . . . . . . . . . . 11 C. Other Communication with Congress 1. Formal Briefing Topics . . . . . . . 14 2. Informal Discussions --Topics .......................... 15 D. List of Current OTA Assessments as of 03/31/91 ................ 18 E. Second Quarter 1991: Legislation With References to OTA .................................................. 20 F. New Assessments Approved During the Quarter ................... 24 II. PUBLICATION BRIEFS OF FORMAL ASSESSMENTS DELIVERED III. SELECTED NEWS CLIPS ON OTA PUBLICATIONS AND ACTIVITIES

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I. -2COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS A. Summaa of FY '90 Completions, Ongoing Work in FY '91, and New Starts Through March 31, 1991 FY '90 FY '91 Products Released Total Ql Q2 Q3 Q4 *Reports 28 3 5 **Other Background Papers 42 2 2 Testimony 49 5 14 Staff Memos or Letter Memoranda 15 1 New Projects Approved by TAB Assessments 12 4 2 Other (Scope Changes; Special Responses Over Director's limits) 0 Projects in Process as of March 31, 1991 1. Under TAB Review 2. In Press Assessments Other (Background, Papers, etc.) 3. In Progress Assessments Other 0 7 4 39 29 *Reports now includes full assessment reports and special reports **Other refers to Background Papers and those projects previously named report supplements, case studies, workshop proceedings and administrative documents

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-3I. COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS B. Products Released During the Quarter 1. Reports ENERGY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES This report is the first product of the assessment entitled Fueling Development: Energy and Technology in the Developing Countries. OTA was asked to examine the extent to which technology can provide the energy services that developing countries need for economic and social development in a cost-effective and socially viable manner, while minimizing the adverse environmental impacts; and to evaluate the role of the United States in accelerating the adoption of such technologies by developing countries. The report examines how energy is currently supplied and used in the developing countries and how energy is linked with economic and social development and the quality of the environment. The-emphasis is primarily on the present status of developing countries, and concerns about current emery trends. This report is intended to provide an introduction to the problems, challenges, and opportunities associated with providing energy services for economic and social development in the developing countries. These issues are examined under four broad topic areas: energy and economic development; energy services; energy supplies, and energy use and the environment. Associated Publications: New Energy Technologies in Developing Countries May 1991 Reguestors Senate Governmental Affairs Committee Hon. John Glenn, Chairman Hon. Joseph Lieberman House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Hon. Norman F. Lent, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Philip R. Sharp, Chairman, Subcommittee on Energy and Power Hon. Carlos J. Moorhead, Ranking Minority Member

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-4-Endorsers: House Select Committee on Hunger Hon. Vic Fazio House Committee on Foreign Affairs Hon. Howard Wolpe, Chairman, Subcommittee on Africa Hon. Gus Yatron, Chairman, Subcommittee on Human Rights and International Organizations House Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs Hon. Walter Fauntroy, Chairman, Subcommittee on International Development, Finance, Trade and Monetary Policy Hon. Jim Leach, Ranking Minority Member, Congressional Competitiveness Caucus Hon. Claudine Schneider, Co-Chairwoman Project Director: Joy Dunkerly, 8-6267 published 1/91 CHANGING BY DEGREES: STEPS TO REDUCE GREENHOUSE GASES -In the 197O's, widespread concern about depletion of the ozone layer around the Earth's upper atmosphere led to a ban on chlorofluorocarbon use in aerosols in the United States (as well as Sweden and Canada). The issue retreated from the public view until 1985 when British researchers identified a hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica larger than the continental U.S. At the same time, concern over global warming--the "greenhouse effect"--was gaining attention. New sophisticated Global Circulation Models reaffirmed concerns that increased levels of carbon dioxide, combined with rising concentrations of other gases (methane, chlorofluorocarbons, and nitrous oxide), are likely to raise temperatures between 1 and 4 centigrade degrees by the middle of the next century. Such warming will result in a rise in sea level and shifts in rainfall patterns, affecting both marine and terrestrial environments. Until recently, stratospheric ozone depletion and the "greenhouse effect" were treated as separate issues. However, many gases participate in both phenomena. There is now general scientific consensus that human activities are affecting global climate. While many ongoing national and international efforts are underway attempting to quantify the magnitude and timing of these changes, policy responses that can be implemented to deal with such changes are still disputed.

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-5-OTA characterizes, economic sector by sector, the major contributors to climate modification. To the extent possible, OTA identifies areas where gains in efficiency, product substitution, energy conservation or other options can ameliorate ozone depletion and/or temperature increase. OTA develops a matrix of possible short-term, medium-term, and long-term policy responses to these problems. Linkages to other environmental and economic concerns are highlighted. Relative ease and expense of implementation are also evaluated. Associated Publications: An Analysis of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete Ozone Layers (Staff Paper) (Published 12/88) Requesters Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Hon. Quentin N. Burdick, Chairman Hon. Robert T. Stafford, then Ranking Minority Member Hon. George J. Mitchell, member Hon. John H. Chafee, member (now Ranking Minority Member) Hon. Max Baucus, member Hon. Dave Durenberger, member Senate Committee on Commerce, Science~ and Transportation Hon. Ernest F. Hollings, Chairman Hon. John C. Danforth, Ranking Minority Member Endorsers House Committee on Foreign Affairs Hon. Dante B. Fascell, Chairman Hon. William S. Broomfield, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Gus Yatron, member Hon. Daniel A. Mica, member Hon. Mervyn Dymally, member Hon. Chester G. Atkins, member Hon. Lawrence J. Smith, member Hon. Benjamin Gilman, member Hon. Connie Mack, member Project Director: Rosina Bierbaum, 228-6845 published 2/91 COMPLEX CLEANUP: THE ENVIRONMENTAL LEGACY OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS PRODUCTION -Since the 1940's, production of nuclear weapons has generated radioactive and hazardous waste. Today there is a large backlog of high-level, transuranic, low-level, hazardous, and mixed waste at the fifteen facilities in the Department of Energy's (DOE's) nuclear weapons complex. Thousands of inactive sites and hundreds of surplus

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-6-structures within the complex are contaminated. There is increasing public concern that these conditions pose unacceptable levels of risk to human health and the environment. DOE estimates it will take more than twenty years at a cost of $50-100 billion to process and dispose of the waste, clean up contaminated sites, and decontaminate and decommission surplus facilities. Specific goals, priorities and strategies for addressing these problems have yet to be established. OTA's assessment focussed on approaches for defining and ranking the problems and identifying effective solutions. The following tasks were performed: (1) evaluate immediate problems and needs that could benefit most from additional emphasis and resources in the near term; (2) assess technologies for waste management and minimization and for environmental restoration; and (3) investigate methodologies for setting priorities and allocating resources. Associated Publications: Long Lived Legacy: Managing High-Level and Transuranic Defense Waste at DOE Weapons Complex (background paper) (In Press) Cleanup Work Health Risks (background paper) June 1991 The Regulatory Framework for DOE Weapons Complex Cleanup (background paper) June 1991 Requestors: Senate Committee on Armed Services Hon. Sam Nunn, Chairman Hon. John Warner, Ranking Minority Member Hon. J. James Exon, Chairman, Subcommittee on Strategic Forces and Nuclear Deterrence Hon. Strom Thurmond, Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries Hon. Walter B. Jones, Chairman Hon. Mike Lowry, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Oceanography Hon. Gerry E. Studds, Chairman, Subcommittee on Fisheries and Wildlife Conservation and the Environment House Committee on Interior Insular Affairs Hon. Morris K. Udall, Chairman Project Director: Peter Johnson, 228-6862 published 2/91

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-7-FINDING THE Rx FOR MANAGING MEDICAL WASTE The adequate management of medical wastes first became a major focus of public attention when medical wastes (with other debris) washed ashore on the East Coast in the summer of 1988. In October of that year, as part of OTA's assessment of municipal solid waste management, OTA issued a background paper entitled Issues in Medical Waste Management. That study provided an overview of medical waste disposal practices and potential risks associated with them, and discussed the need for further Federal involvement in managing medical wastes. The present report evaluates medical waste in the broader context of a waste management policy for the Nation. Waste reduction and recycling options for medical waste management, as well as incineration and non-incineration treatment alternatives are examined. Associated Publications "Non-Hazardous" Solid Wastes (background paper) April 1991 Requester House Committee on Science, Space and Technology Hon. Robert Roe, then Chairman Hon. Maunuel Lujan, Jr., then Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. Thomas A. Luken, Chairman, Subcommittee on Transportation and Hazardous Materials House Committee on Small Business Hon. Ron Wyden, Chairman, Subcommittee on Regulation, Business Opportunities, and Energy Project Director: Bob Niblock, 228-6850 published 2/91 TECHNOLOGY AGAINST TERRORISM: THE FEDERAL EFFORT This summary of two reports for the assessment examines the state of R&D applicable to countering terrorism. It identifies promising lines of work for further exploitation, and assess the effectiveness of translating successful technology into actual protection of U.S. citizens, officials, and property. In addition to obvious areas of interest such as technologies related to explosives detection, access control, and incident response, OTA also considers possible future terrorist threats and potential means of dealing with them.

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-8-Marked by the bombing of Pan Am 103, 1988 witnessed a large increase in the number of U.S. casualties to terrorism. But terrorists have been active throughout the 1980's, staging hijackings, kidnappings, airplane bombings, and car bombings. Death tolls have been high: as an example, over 800 died in the three worst aircraft bombings between 1985 and 1988. Threats from various officials of foreign governments (e.g. Iran) and sub-national groups (e.g. Ahmed Jibril's Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine/General Command) indicate a policy of escalating attacks on U.S. targets, including civilians. In general, on a global level, U.S. interests and U.S. citizens have been the frequent, although no means unique, targets of attack. The U.S. possesses one distinct advantage in its response to this challenge: its high level of technological expertise and its excellent technical resources. While technology cannot provide foolproof protection of American lives and property from terrorists, it can play an important role. The OTA assessment will provide Congress with an analysis of the potential effectiveness of this tool for the near-and mid-terms. Policy options regarding research and development and the transfer of useful technology the field are included. Associated Publications: Use of Technology in Countering Terrorism Reguestors Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Hon. John Glenn, Chairman June 1991 Hon. William Roth, Jr., Ranking Minority Member Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Hon. John Kerry, Chairman Hon. Mitch McConnell, Ranking Minority Member Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation Hon. Ernest F. Hollings, Chairman Hon. John C. Danforth, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Wendell H. Ford, Chairman, Subcommittee on Aviation Hon. John McCain, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Tony Fainberg, 8-6429 (published 2/91) FEDERALLY FUNDED RESEARCH: DECISIONS FOR A DECADE The American system for initiating and managing basic research was developed in the period of economic growth and optimism following World War II. Basic research was generally understood to underpin

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-9the growth of knowledge and technical innovation, but was "best left to the scientists." For many years, this approach served the Nation well, and Congress asserted a strong national commitment to Federal research funding. As America enters the 1990's, clarity about the purpose and appropriateness of the Federal basic research system, and much of its ability to be flexible, has been lost. While still generally considered to be robust, the system is showing signs of stress. Competition for Federal monies is intense, young researchers face daunting career obstacles, and facilities are deteriorating. Calls for economic competitiveness, research priority-setting, and improved science education grow louder. In this changing environment, the Federal "research system" the funders, managers, performers, and consumers of research is not well understood. Concern over the size, nature, and distribution of research funding is voiced increasingly by Congress. Perhaps most importantly, Members are raising new questions about the goals and processes of basic research in order to make wise choices about priorities. OTA has identified four challenges to the Federal research system in the 1990's: 1) setting priorities at all levels of the Federal Government for the support of research; 2) coping with rising research expenditures; 3) adapting education and human resources to meet uncertain and changing future needs; and 4) refining data collection and analysis to improve research decisionmaking. Policy issues related to these four challenges are discussed. Associated Publications Research Funding and Proposal Pressure in the 1980's: Federal Agency Trends (background paper) (published 4/90) Reguestors: House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Hon. Robert A. Roe, Chairman Hon. Robert S. Walker, Ranking Republican Member Endorser: Hon. Charles E. Grassley Project Director: Daryl E. Chubin 228-6933 published 3/91

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-10-I. B. 2. Other: Background Papers, and Administrative Reports ADJUSTING TO A NEW SECURITY ENVIRONMENT: THE DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY AND INDUSTRIAL BASE CHALLENGE -background paper The paper is the first product of a study, requested by a number of Congressional committees, to assess the current U.S. defense technology and industrial base and to suggest options for adapting the base to emerging global security conditions and fiscal constraints. This paper outlines the complex defense technology and industrial base challenges that confront the Nation in adjusting to a new security environment while setting the context for another related report, due in a few months, and the final report due in 1992. Associated Publications: Future Directions for U.S. Military Force Structure (background paper) June 1991 Planning the Transition for the Future Defense Technology and Industrial Base May 1991 Managing the Nation's Defense Industrial Strength in a Changing Security Environment March 1992 SEEKING SOLUTIONS: HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING FOR SCIENCE background paper -This paper is the second publication from OTA's assessment entitled Information Technology and Research. The background paper explores the role of highperformance computing in maintaining the pre-eminence of the United States in science and technology. Supercomputers are important tools for maintaining the competitiveness of U.S. industry and contribute substantially to our defense and security. Many of the massive world problems that we face, such as global environmental change and weather and crop forecasting require high-performance computers. Our greatest scientific challenges, like mapping the human genome, exploring the origin of the universe, and modeling complex molecules would be nearly impossible to tackle without the assistance of supercomputers. This Background Paper assesses the historical role the Federal Government has played in promoting the development and supporting the use of high-performance computing. It assesses current programs and projects the needs for the future. Finally, it considers the value of a national research and educational network that can link researchers in far flung locations through out the United States with supercomputers and information systems.

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-11-Associated Publications: High Performance Computing and Networking for Science (Background Paper) (Published 9/89) Networking the Nation: The National Research and Education Network July 1991 Project Director: Jim Curlin, 228-6760 ANNUAL REPORT Administrative Document ASSESSMENT ACTIVITIES Administrative Document published 3/91 published 3/91 published 3/91 I. B. 3.0TA Staff Memos or Letter Memoranda Subject Description 01/31/91 Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Policy Options (Letter Memo) I. B. 4. Testimony Committee 01/31/91 01/31/91 02/20/91 House Committee on Science, Space and Technology Subcommittee on Terrorism, Narcotics and International Operations of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations House Committee on Public Works and Transportation Response to Sen. J. Bennett Johnston regarding Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards for automobiles based upon on-going study in the Energy and Material Program Subject/Person Testifying Implementing the Recommendations of the Augustine Report (Ray Williamson and Mike Callaham) Summary of OTA's report Technology Against Terrorism (Anthony Fainberg, Edith Page and Alan Shaw) Surface Transportation: Indispensable for Intermodalism (Edith Page)

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Date 02/20/91 02/21/91 02/26/91 2/26/91 02/28/91 02/28/91 03/07/91 03/07/91 03/13/91 -12-Committee Subcommittee on Energy and Power of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Health and the Environment of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Subcommittee on International Development, Trade, Finance and Monetary Policy of the House Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs Senate Committee on Energy and and Natural Resources House Committee on Science, Space and Technology Subcommittee on Energy and Power of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on the Environment of House Committee on Science, Space and Technology Subcommittee on Civil and Constitutional Rights of the House Committee on the Judiciary Subject/Person Testifying Energy Policy Context for 1990's: Considerations for a National Energy Strategy (John H. Gibbons) Controlling Carbon Dioxide Emissions (Rosina Bierbaum) Summary of OTA's report -Technology Against Terrorism (Anthony Fainberg, and Alan Shaw) Energy in Developing Countries (Peter Blair and Joy Dunkerly) Improving Corporate Average Fuel Economy: Comments on S.341, The Natural Energy Security Act (Steve Plotkin) Context for U.S. Energy Policy: Current Paths and Opportunities for the 1990's (John H. Gibbons) Electricity Overview: Some Issues Facing the U.S. Electric Utility Industry (Peter Blair) DOE's Environmental Cleanup Program (Peter Johnson) The FBI Identification Division Automation Program (Fred Wood)

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Date 03/20/91 03/20/91 -13-Committee Subcommittee on Science of the House Committee on Science, Space and Transportation Senate Committee on Energy and and Natural Resources Subject/Person Testifyin~ Federally Funded Research: Decisions for a Decade (Daryl Chubin, Nancy Carson, John Andelin and Beth Robinson) Estimating Feasible Levels of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (Steve Plotkin)

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I. C. -14-Other Communication with Congress 1. Formal Briefings, Presentations, Workshops (With Committee Staffs) COMMITTEES OF THE SENATE Foreign Relations, Environment and Public Works and Energy and Natural Resources Committees Changing by Degrees Report Environment and Public Works Subcommittee on Water Resources.Transportation and Infrastructure Infrastructure and Highway Reauthorization Commerce, Science and Transportation Subcommittee on Surface Transportation Truck Safety and Highway Reauthorization Finance Committee Oregon Medicaid Proposal COMMITTEES OF THE HOUSE Energy and Commerce Oregon's Medicaid Proposal Changing by Degrees Report Appropriations Subcommittee on Labor, Health and Human Services Education National Center for Human Genome Research Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations OTA's Biological Applications and Health Programs projects Public Works and Transportation Infrastructure and Highway Reauthorization Armed Services Complex Cleanup Report

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-15-2. Informal Discussions -Topics In addition to briefings and presentations, informal discussions take place continually, as requested by Members and staff. OTA staff members give updates on ongoing work and provide information that Members and Committees may need relative to legislation pending or under consideration or for hearings and related testimony. ENERGY, MATERIALS, AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY DIVISION Energy and Materials Program Alternative Fuels ANWR CAFE DOE Laboratories Electric Utility Regulation EMF Health Effects Energy Conservation in Buildings Energy Efficiency Energy in Developing Countries Energy Outlook Energy Policy/Strategy Energy Use in the U.S. Economy Federal Energy Efficiency Green Product Design HDTV Materials Waste Reduction National Energy Strategy New Electric Power Technologies Nuclear Power Oil Replacement Potential Oil Supply Disruption PUHCA Revision Recycling Setting Energy Policy Goals Industry, Technology and Employment Program Policy Options for Portable Training Questions on Training Policy Technology Diffusion in Manufacturing Competitiveness Trade Impacts of Environmental Issues U.S. Free Trade Agreement and Employment Impacts with Mexico International Security and Commerce Program Defense Industry International Collaboration in Defense Technology Preliminary Findings START Verification Terrorism

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-16-HEALTH AND LIFE SCIENCES DIVISION Biological Applications Program Biotechnology Cystic Fibrosis Forensic DNA Testing Genetic Monitoring and Screening in the Workplace Genetics and Insurance Hormone Replacement Therapy Human Genome Project Immunotoxicity Neuroscience Research Women's Health Food and Renewable Resources Program Agriculture Water Use and California Drought Biotechnology and Exotic Species Drought and Water Supply Endangered Species Listing Process Farmer Adoption of Groundwater Protection Practices Financial Practices in American Samoa Food Inspection and Testing Forest Management Grazing Fee Formulas Nitrate Contamination of Groundwater Puerto Rican Nutrition Program Status of the Forest Planning Study U.S. & Donor Needs in Eastern Europe Development Health Program Health Care Workers and Transmission of AIDS Health Insurance and its relationship to Health Status and Outcomes Juvenile Delinquency Oregon's Proposed Medicaid Demonstration Pharmaceutical Labeling Practices Preventive Services Rural Health Care Status of Home IV Drug Project Structural Change in Health Care

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-17-SCIENCE, INFORMATION AND NATURAL RESOURCES DIVISION Oceans and Environment Program Antarctica ANWR Bioremediation Climate Change Report Complex Cleanup Report Dioxin Cleanup Health Effects of Radioactive Wastes Oil Spills Science. Education and Transportation Program Assessment of Educational Testing Computers for Literacy Programs for Adults and Families Dedicated Education Satellite Educational Technology Transfer Evaluation of NSF Education Programs Federal Laboratories Federally Funded Research Future of Science Research Funding High Speed Rail Literacy and the English as a Second Language Population Literacy and the Workplace Magnetic Levitation Vehicles Railroads Reauthorization of the Higher Education Act Science Education Television arid Adult Literacy Needs Tiltrotor Aircraft Truck Safety Use of Fiber Optics for Distance Learning Use of Satellites for Distance Learning Telecommunication and Computing Technologies Program Automated Firearms Purchaser Checks Computer Software and Intellectual Property FBI Identification Automation Miniaturizing Technology Study National Research and Education Network National Technical Information Service Radio Spectrum Study Rural Telecommunications

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ASSESSMENTS IN PROGRESS, March 31, 1991: BUDGET"" AND SCHEDULE <----------------1991-----------------> <-----1992-----> Current Projected Date For Delivery To TAB ENERGY, IIATERIALS, ARD INTERNATIONAL SECUlllTY Energy and Materials 1121 Technological Risks and Opportunities for Future U.S. Energy Supply and Demand X 1126 New Energy Technologies and Developing Countries X 1127 U.S. Energy Efficiency: Past Trends and Future Opportunities 1128 Materials Technology: Integrating Envirollllental Goals with Product Design Industry, Technology, and l!llployaent 1216 Trade Ill (expansion of cost code 1213) 1217 Technology Opportunities for Economic Conversion (in coordination with ISC fl318) lntemational Security and Commerce X 1315 Technologies for START Agreement X 1316 Global Defense Business and Arms Proliferation X 1317 Use of Technology in Countering Terrorism 1318 Managing the Nation's Defense Industrial X Strength in a Changing Security Envirollllent (in coordination with ITE fl217) 1319 *Police Body Armor Standards and Testing HEALTH AND LIFE SCIENCES Biological Applications 2315 New Developments in Neuroscience 2318 Biotechnology in a Global Economy X 2320 Cystic Fibrosis: Implications of Population Screening Food and Renewable Resources 2116 Emerging Agricultural Technology: Issues for the 1990's 2117 Renewable Resource Planning Technologies for Public Land Use X 211! Agricultural Alternatives to Coca Production 2119 Exotic Species in the United States liealth 2203 Monitoring of Mandated Veteran Studiea 2222 Drug Labeling in Developing Countries X 2229 Federal Response to AID's: Congressional Issues 2231 Gover11111ent Policies and Pharmaceutical R&D X 2232 Evaluation of the Oregon Medicaid Proposal 2233 Home Intravenous and Immunosuppresive Drug Therapies Under the Medicare Program X 2239 Polley Issues in the Prevention and Treatment of Osteoporosis SCIENCE, INFORMATION, AND NATUllAL USOUllCES Oceana and Environment 3218 Cleaning Up the Nation's Defense Nuclear Waste X 3219 Medical Waste and other "Non-Hazardous Solid Waste Issues X Science, Education, snd Transportation 3314 Schools, Kids, and Measurement: Technologies of Assessment 3315 New Ways: Tilt Motor Aircraft and Magnetically Levitated Trains X 3316 Technologies for Literacy 3317 Federal-Aid Highway Program in the 1990's X Telecommunication and Computing Technologie1 3122 Information Technology and Research 3124 Computer Software and Intellectual Property: Meeting the Challenge of Technological Change and Global Competition 3125 *Miniaturizing Technologies: Current Status, Future Trends, Implications X X X X X X X X (Kay 1992) X (Apr. 1992) (Sept.1992) (undated) (ongoing) X (June 1992) X X X s Thousands 353 406 755 820 799.5 799.5 636.4 636.4 260 288 750 550 778 534 759 492 534 316 750 750 279 279 690 755 571 574 489 489 412 412 486 459 297 297 694 694 88 19 490 501 280 238 547 510 135 144 218 174 422 421 915 892 +15.0 -8.6 +10.9 -31. 3 -35.2 -40.8 + 9.5 + 0.5 -5.6 -N/A + 2.2 -15.l -6.8 + 6.8 -20.0 -0.2 2.5 135 148 + 9.6 594 561 6.7 92 83 9.9 716 716 138 104 -24.6 564 582 + 3.2 630 621 1.4 90 80 -10.0 ""TAB App. -TAB approved budget estimates; OTA Proj. -OTA projected budget as of 03/31/91; % Var. -Percent variance of projected cost. *Approved by TAB bv mall hallot l/91

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-18-I. D LIST OF CURRENT OTA ASSESSMENTS AS OF MARCH 31, 1991 For further information please call OTA's Office of Congressional Affairs -4-9241 ENERGY, MATERIALS, AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY DIVISION Entrn---PT..,.a:Pllerll*,,,.... ...... HZ71 1121 Technologlcal rtsks and OIJP(lrtuntllll for Min U.S: energy sUlll)ly and dlmlnd ............. A(Jf. 1991 Repladng gasollll& allllmllM fulll for~ Ylllk:lel (publlsllld &-, ................ Autllmollw full economy .......................................... . . . . 1991 1128 New energy lldlnoioQIII In dlwloplng countrlel .................. : ...................... May 1991 Energy In dllllloplnQ countl1II (publllfted 1191) ..................................... .. 1127 U.S. energy efllcllncy: pat trlndl and fubn opportunltlel ................................ Ftb. 1992 lndustrtll energy lfflcllncy ...... : .................................................. July 1991 Energy lfllclency In pernllllllt ...................................................... July 1991 Residlnllll and CClfflllllldll energy lfflcllftcy .......................................... Aug. 1991 1128_. Ma1lrtlll 1lc:hnology: lnllgl'llng 8IWirollmentll goall with pn1duct dNlgn .................. Feb. 1992 ~2~~.., f=~~.=~i.:a~"'T21~~-~-~ -~-.~~!~~:~ .......... -1991 1217 TechnolOgy oppo,111111111 far ICCIIIOffllc COIIWl'llon (In coonlllialkln Miil ISC 11318) May 1992 lltlnllllllll a.-tly ... c.. .. 1'1'111-= Ala ..................... NWa 1315 Technologill for START agrNllllllt Veilbloft l1ch110IOQIN: -far fflOllltDih;u c:ompllancl wi1111111 STMT naly (claalftld report pullllnd 7l!IO) (undalsfflld report publlsllld 12/90) Rewn:11 and dMI.-. far coooeratlVI arms conlrol .....,. (In pna) ..... Dellvtrld Ae1111 SUIVlllllnce and anna conlral .................................................. Apr. 1991 Alan Crane StMPlotlcin StM Plotkin Joy Dlll1klrtl'f P911rBlalr JohnNewna Rollin Roy PmKomor GregEyring Ju11Gor11 KIily GIiman lbmKara Phone No. 8-6427 8-6275 8-6275 8-6287 8-6260 8-6273 8-6285 8-6288 8-6270 8-8354 8-6353 8-6430 Monllaltng 11111111 on ......,.. cruise mlalls (daafflld) (unctaslffled 1UIMIIIY) A(Jf. 1991 1318 Global dlflml bustnell and arms prollflratlon ........................................... A(Jf. 1991 Wlllam Kalllt 8-M34 Arming cu alllel: cQOPlflllOn and compelltlon In dtfensa tldlnolOgy (publlslled 5"90) 1317 Ute of llehllOlogy In ~ng llrnlrllm ......................................... J... 1991 Tony FalnlllrO 8-6429 Tac:hnalogy IQllllll 1ln'Orllm: 1111 Ftdanl llfort (In prm) ............................. D11v1rN 1318 tlll Nalloft's dlfllafndulbtal s1rlllgth In a~ -.dyllM'OIIINllt (In coonllllllan Will 1TE 11217) ..................................................... Mir. 1992 Jadl Nana 8-6448 AdJusllng to a new semtty IINinlnmlnt tlll dlfllwe W.IOlogy Md lndUllrtlt lllle dlalllngl (bd. paper) (pulllllled 2/91) Futu11 cllldlons for U.S. mlltlryfon:e strucbn (Ila. paper) (Junl 1991) Planning tlll tnnllllon to tlll fubn dlf9me llchnology and llldulbiat blN ............... May 1911 1319 *Pollcl body armor standlnll and tlstlng ................................................ Jan. 1992 t.tkt Clllaham 8-6428 HEAIJH AND LIFE SCIENCES DMSION ......... llcallwl'rltla: .......................... M171 2315 New dMloprnlntl In nuOldlacc ~: and coi...,...nlr""ollln.._lQ poilonl ol thl lllMIUI sys11m (putlllshld 4/90) Neural grafting: repllrlng thl bnlln and spinal CORI (special report) (putllllhed 9lllO) BlolOQlcll rhylhl'III and shift work .................................................... July 1991 TIit bloloQlcal 111111 of 111111111 llnlll .................................................. Mar. 1992 2318 BIOClcllnology In a globa 1C011CNRY A(Jf. 1991 2320 Cystic ftbnllll: lmpllcallonl of popullllon scr-*'11 ..................................... Mir. 1992 ftNIINl 11---11 ..... ,....._ ..... ,.._, Prltra ...... Hal 2115 U.S. unlwfsltla and dMlc,pment mi111nc1: (ta:k. 1)11111) ~n pna) (DTP) Dellwred 2118 Emerging agrtcullulll 1lcllnoloQr. --for tlll 19901 .................................... May 1991 AQrtcutllnl l1lllldl and llet,llologytllnlfW polldN for tlll 19901 (publlltlld 3IIIO) U.S. daky lndullly at I crOllfOldl; Wmovt and policy cholcll (In pna) ........... DellVlfld AQl1clllllnl commadllll aa llldulbiat raw "'*1111 (Ila. 1)11111) (In prm) ............. 2117 Renewallll l'IIOUn pflnnlng lldlAGloglll far pubic land UN ............................. A(Jf. 1991 ForNt Slrw:e pulling: S111nO strltlglc cllldlon undlr R~ (putJIIIMd 7/m) 2118 AQrtcullulll *11111 to c:oca production .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . .. .. . 1992 2119 Exotic species In thl Ulilld Stllll ...................................................... Sept 1992 HaNII Prltrla: CJydt .._,, ,...._ ..... ..... 2203 Monttortng ot mandafid veteran studies (mandated ongoing adMtl) ...................... Mandated 2222 Drug labelng In dMIOl)lng countrlel-9hasl I (published 12188) ......................... Drug labeling In developlng coulltrtN--pllase II .......................................... Sept 1991 2225 Adolescent health ~n press) ............................................................ Dellwred Summary and Polley OplloM (Vol. I) 8acko,ound and Ille etfldlwness of selected prevention and trealment servtcas (Vol. II) Crossclltllng iSSUN In thl cf'""Y at health and related S8MC8I (Vol. Ill) lndlan adolelclnt mental helllll (published 1/90) Health Insurance for adolesclnll (staff paper) (published 8189) Fedent l'ISl)Olllt to AES: congrmlonal lssu8I .......................................... Ongoing Partial Osting only: (contact Project Director tor othw lltles) 2229 How effldM Is AIJS educalloll? (staff paper) (published 8AS8) David Uskawlky 8-6678 DMIUskawlky 8-6678 Daond UslcDwsky 8-6678 LauraHal 8-6698 Kevtn O'Connor 8-6692 Robyn Nlshlml 8-6690 Alison Hell H516 ~PtilUps H521 Martt'Nllstl 8~28 RossGortl H520 Patrtcla Durana H515 Pflyllls Windle 8-6533 Clyde Behney 8-6590 8-6590 Bob McDonough Denise Dougherty 8-6590 8-6590 8-6590

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.., ,_ Ftdlla ,....._Al>SMV _contnbUlld to otlllr lllldl? (stiff paper) (p,mlllllll .... 111.lffd-afdrugalNallNlllnllt ( .. ...., (pulllllllldMIO) (DTP) 1111---ADS(lla.Pll*)(--1911) HIia cat.....,. ... bWI--,i 11V (Ila. 111111') (W 1811) 2231" Gav1r11111111 pCllldll 11111 pilllinWIIIICIII RID -1911 rm ew."'1111 01111111 11111C:1111 ,r...-. .. . . .. . . . . . . ...... J& 1112 2233 Homtlnlr.-llld~--------IIIIMtdclllsin,ara ..... ------.......... dnlgl --Md:111...................... 1911 Home drug lnflllall tlllllpy llldlr Mldll:III ................... J 1911 2231 Poley,__ lallll p.wtl --11-af omopo,OIII .............................. Sept. 1911 SaNlllng far omopo,OIII (Ila. 111111') (Jm, 1991) PuDlc ldUClllall .......... (ba. Pllllr) (IUIIIIMr 1991) SCIENCE, INFORMATION, AND NATURAL RESOURCES DIVISION O...l!PllealllPl'lllla: 1111 ,....._ ..... ,HIii 3218 Compllx dalllp: 1111 IIMIOIIIIIIIIII IICIICY" nudllr weapons production (pulllsbld 2111) Dlllvlrld Lang,lwd fflllllCllng hlgft IMII and1nlaanlcdlfWWIIII atUII DOE WIIPGlll conipla (Ila. paper) (Apr. 1991) ClanupWC11111rllllllltrlllll(lla.Pl9*) (June 1911) 1111 rlQllllllll) ,....._farDOEWIIPGIIICOfflllla--. (Dal:k. PIPII') (J-1911) 3211 W-and .._"nolHmlnlolM"salldWlltl ..._ Alllng 1111 11z far 1111111!111111 IIIIIICII WIIIII (puDlllftld W1). ......... dDiil9 said W11111 (Ila. 111111') (Apr. 1981) .............................. .. ...... ,. ...... 1' -~....,caw. ....... ,, .... ... 3310 DlblrfnQ 1111 gaadc pulll'I: warlll. tldlnaloar, IIIIIIIQlffllllt ~n 1)1111) DIIIWlld Rlllul'dnl 1111faundllancSidi111111oaC pu111c wora 11m11:1ng and fflllllGIIIIIII (pulllllftld3'80) Adllllll:ld~ .... ---11d: p,abllml (lflff PII*) (pulllllllld9,111) 3313 Ftdlralyfundld r-= dlallolll far I dlcadl prm) ...... .. .... DellvllN ,....... tund'IIG pnipaC pram In Ill 1all: Fedlrll IQllll:Jtllndl (stlffPIPl')(pullllnd.WO, 3314 Scllooll. lddl, and lWlfflllt lldllNlklQIII assmment ............................. Sept 1991 3315 NIW ays: ralDr am:111 and IIIIQl...., llvllllld tralnl M1J 1991 3311 TICIIINlklQlll fal' llllrlcr ............ JIIII 1912 3317 Ftdlrll .ijd Hlgllway Pnlgrmn far llll 19IIOI ............................................. JIIII 1911 Tll111a-l11IN _. CB .... Tl t 1 Pl'lllla:.1111 Cldl. ,,.._ ES 111', N7II 3122 l11fomilluA lldiiidogy and .....:11: HIQ'I pirfamaDCGmlll*I ........ rtCN-ltlllM-lg farsdla (Ila. PIP") {pllll'llllld.., Sllldllg lGlulanl: IIIQII pafarmllm mmpu11ng far sdlnr:I (Im. PIPII) (palllllftld 3111) NllWaddl1111111,..._ 1111 _._. 1'111.:11 and acalklll llltwadc ..................... J... 1an 3123 Rln' Amlrtclatllll a...SC nllWCIINIIQ farllll l'ulln ~n pr9II) ....................... o.r.ld 3124 Compallr saAWlll llld b111111.ur pn11111ty: 111111Cng 1111 c11111111g11 lllcftllaioglcl dllllgl and QIDOII __.. ........................................... Oct. 19'1 3125 ......... flcllnaloglll: can.-~ fulall llllldl, mplcadanl ........................ Jm, 1991 DIRECTOR-APPROVED SPECIAL RESPONSES .,........ 1291 Mada l)lfformlncl ltllldardl farllll FOOC' and Nulltllan S.W. lffllllO,nllnl llld 11111*11 prag1a (lllllldllld anga(ng (Mly 1911) .............................. MIi ... 1277 --IDllllc llldcllln ndCIIIIC WII bllng (Ila. paper) (Aug. 1991) (DTP) 1 u..- 1984 al l'lllaplan (Ila. 111111') < 1911) ...................... .. 1-111 RtfClnnu'aa gllClllnl: a ---tul' (Ila. PIPII) (Jim 1991) ..................... .. 1C Rll'lalnl aldlr\'INcllc tul' .-..., I emlaloa lldllc1lon blnllll (Ila. Pl9*) (Apr'. 1911) 1 Compartsan 11111111111 and,.....,.. ..... Moon and Min (Ila. PIPII) (Apr'. 1911) a..., 2212 "Pllll(lld-"""wtPly!.;Ill 11 t-co....-(._.,_ OIIQCllno actMly) Mandalld 2211 Plynlt AMR, Cclllllllllaal { ...... onaai10 ll:ICvtly) ....................... Mandalld 2381 rtdlrl' paley-IDllll dlllllDPllll? IIII i..-..""**'C111111111 far ptllCIIII wlll dlnml!I (Ila. PIP") (Mly 1911) 2314 1111t caaa'IIIIIIICIDdc IIIDltlllCII (bal:IL PIP") (II PIIII> 2381 SU.WV ... -----prallct (Ila. paper) (May 1991) 2880 DtllQII" CIII IIIIIIQlll*II ...- a fldlnllly mandllld I~ lllllllglllllllt CIII praanm:. ..................................................... .. Sellcllng CIII nmllQlffllllt (Ila. pa-, (May 1991) 1nt11111:1 cm IIIIIIIQIIWtfuncllonl provldld llycau IIIIIIIQIIINllt agancyand llySll't'lcl pravldn (Ila. pa-, (Aug. 1991) 288Z Study hOnnClnl ,......-tlilnlpy (Ila. Pl!*) (Dec. 1991) ........................ .. 2984 ldlnalytnQ and canlnllllllg pulnlanuy 1mi:antl (bade. pa-, (Jan. 1992) DhlaaC 3178 Product...,. and lntlmallclllll c:Gffll)IIIIIWw (bade. Pie*) (Oct. 1991) 3411 Allocallna 1111 radio frlqulncy sc,ectrum (bade. l)IPlr) (June 1991) 348.1 RIIQIIPrint ldllllfflcalud MltDmdon (bade. 1)11111) (summer 1991) ....................... .. 3484 AulDmmd ftram pwdlalr dlldll (bal:i. 1111*) (summ 1991) : 3818 lllorlmldlalloA for lllll1nl al spllll (bal:i. ,.._,, (In prm) ........................ 3888 TedmalOQIIII for trllllng dlolda conllmilldoll (Ila. (June 1991) BailNllka H850 KdlyCGx H858 EdlliPIQI H9.1I Dalyl~ H933 ,....,... 8-6934 IC8vlna.,t H937 UndlRClblrtl H938 EdlliPIQI H8.1I .IIIICIIIII H780 UndlGudl H774 JoanWlnltDII H789 SumlPIIII H780 Mll'Qll'lttllan H359 a.....Kollnld H785 Plllr .. H260 SIM PlotldD H27S SIM PICllllln H27S Raywaamsan H448 BalnlPowlr H590 Q)dllllftnly H590 KafltMIMaw H590 HalyGwln H104 Mll'Qll'ltAndlnon 8-6695 KafltMallaw H590 KalllHanna 8-6882 HallyGwln 8-61-40 UndlGan:il 8-6774 DawiWyt 8-69'CS Ftld'Mlod H790 Ftld'Mlod H790 .'Malrnllyw 8-6341 PlllrJoftlllOII 8-6882

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I. E. -20-Second Quarter 1991: Legislation with References to OTA Mandating Activities for OTA H.R. 251 To promote the conservation and enhancement of wetlands ... Introduced January 3, 1991 Would require OTA to perform a study of all incentives under federal and state law for the protection and management of wetlands, modifications that can be made to existing laws to improve their effectiveness, and ways for the federal government to encourage additional state and local protections. The study would be due within 1 year of enactment. H.R. 404 To Amend the Federal Water Pollution Control Act ... Introduced January 3, 1991 See H.R. 251. H.R. 1161 To promote greater equity in the delivery of health care services ... Introduced February 27, 1991 Would require the Director of OTA to appoint an Advisory Panel on Osteoporosis and Related Disorders within 90 days of enactment. H.R. 1212 To Amend the Public Health Services Act ... Introduced February 28, 1991 See H.R. 1161. H.R. 1300 Entitled the "Universal Health Care Act of 1991" Introduced March 6, 1991 Would require the Director of OTA to appoint the members of a Long-Term Care Payment Review Commission. Would require the Director of OTA to appoint the members of a General Health Care Payment Review Commission. Would require the Director of OTA to appoint the members of a National Advisory Board to the Secretary of Health and Human Services.

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-21-H.R. 1303 To Amend the Communications Act of 1934 Introduced March 6, 1991 Would require a representative from OTA to participate on a study panel set up to prepare a report to Congress on public use programming in cable television and related markets. H.R. 1601 To Amend the National Historic Preservation Act ... Introduced March 22, 1991 Would require a representative from OTA to participate on the Preservation Technology Board, which would oversee the activities of a National Center for Preservation Technology. S. 1 To Amend Title 38, United States Code Introduced January 14, 1991 Would require OTA to evaluate each annual report of the Veterans' Administration on the results of examinations and treatment of veterans for disabilities related to exposure to exposure to certain herbicides or to service in Vietnam. OTA would be required to report on its evaluation to the VA Secretary. S. 127 A bill to increase the rates of compensation for veterans .. Introduced January 14, 1991. See S. 1. S. 488 To Amend the Public Health Service Act ... Introduced February 26, 1991 See H.R. 1161. S. 504 To Amend the Standing Rules of the Senate ... Introduced February 26, 1991 Would require OTA to prepare a prevention impact evaluation for each bill or joint resolution that relates to health, authorizes expenditure of more than $10,000,000, and is favorably reported by a committee. It would also require an annual report on OTA's activities related to prevention impact evaluation. S. 514 To Amend the Public Health Service Act ... Introduced February 27, 1991

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-22-See H.R. 1161. S. 662 A bill to increase the use of natural gas in the United States. Introduced March 14, 1991 Would require OTA, in conjunction with DOE, to: 1) study and report to Congress on the global trends of production, usage, and transportation of natural gas and the ways in which these trends can affect domestic energy policy and the U.S. natural gas industry; and 2) identify, study, and report to Congress on state and locally imposed institutional and regulatory barriers to increased natural gas usage, and make recommendations as to the establishment of a uniform national policy to enhance the use of natural gas. S. 684 To amend the National Historic Preservation Act ... Introduced March 19, 1991 See H.R. 1601. S. 737 To require a comprehensive analysis of [coastal and marine environments] Introduced March 21, 1991 Requires NOAA to prepare a report to Congress and have it reviewed by OTA (among others) before submitting it. S. 742 To promote cost effective energy efficiency improvements ... Introduced March 21, 1991 See S. 662 Public Laws Citing OTA's Work S. 279 To Amend the Motor Vehicle Information and Cost Savings Act ... Introduced January 29, 1991 Section 2(12) states that, "[OTA] and the Department of Energy agree that increased fuel efficiency is possible utilizing currently available technology and without significant changes in the size, mix, or performance of the fleet."

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-23-S. 554 To establish an Interagency Committee on Degradable Plastics Introduced March 5, 1991 Suggests that the committee established by the bill should consult with OTA in carrying out its duties. Potential Administrative Impact on OTA H.R. 461 To provide for greater accountability for [travel] ... Introduced January 7, 1991 Would require OTA to establish a foreign travel supervisor to control foreign travel and report, to the agency and to GSA, on OTA's foreign travel activities. H.R. 1488 To amend the DOE Organization Act Introduced March 19, 1991 Would identify OTA employees as individuals who could be appropriately notified if an individual felt that DOE contractors were taking retaliatory personnel actions against their "whistle-blowing" employees.

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-24-I. F. New Assessments Approved During the Quarter Approved by TAB via mail ballot March 1991 Police Body Armor Standards and Testing Miniaturizing Technologies: Current Status, Future Trends, Implications

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Publication Briefs

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OTA Report Brief January 1991 Energy in Developing Countries This report is the first product of the assessment "Fueling Development: Energy and Technology in the Developing Countries." The report examines how energy is currently supplied and used in the developing countries. In addition, the report explores how energy use is linked with economic and social development and with environmental quality. A subsequent report wi1l evaluate improved technologies for providing the energy services for development and examine ways in which Congress can help promote the rapid adoption of such technologies. Developing countries need energy to raise pro ductivity and improve their living standards. Yet supplying energy to achieve these goals, with their current patterns of production an~ use, raises serious problems-financial, institutional, and en vironmental. The magnitude of these problems underlines the need for more efficient and sophis ticated production, conversion, delivery, and use of energy in developing countries. Improved efficiency could moderate the expansion of energy supplies otherwise needed, while still providing the energy services needed for development These issues are of global concern. The develop ing countries contain most of the people in the world. The ways in which they meet their energy needs affect not only their own, but the world energy situation and the global environment Inter national efforts to solve problems in these areas depend on the participation of the developing countries. Consumption of commercial energy--coal, oil, gas, and electricity-by developing countries could triple by 2020 and increased supplies of "tradi-Figure 1-Per-capita Commercial Energy Consumption GigaJoules per capita 250r------------------, 200 150 100 50 Developing regions D Industrial regions tional" biomass fuels-fuelwood, animal dung, and crop residues-will also be required. While per capita levels of energy consumption in the develop ing world are and will continue to be far below that of the industrial countries (figure 1), the share of developing countries in world commercial energy consumption will rise from 23 to 40 percent over the next three decades (figure 2). Factors contributing to rapidly rising energy consumption in developing countries include. Population growth. Unless family planning support increases markedly, over the next three decades the population of the developing world will increase by nearly 3 billion-to almost 7 billion total-while that of OECD countries will increase by only 100 million-to 850 million total. Rising living standards. Securing higher living standards for a growing population requires rapid economic growth, further increasing the demand for energy. This demand is augmented by structural changes inherent in the development process, especially urbanization, substitution of commercial for traditional fuels, and use of Figure 2-0eveloping Country Commercial Energy Consumption as a Percentage of the World Total Percentage 100.------------------~ 75 50 40% 25 0 1973 1985 2020 SOURCE: World Energy Conference, Global Enerpy Perspectivn 2000-2020, 14th Congress, Montreal 1989 (Paris: 1989). The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) is an analytical arm of the US. Congress. OT.A's basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes.

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energy-intensive material such as steel and cement needed to build commercial, industrial, and transportation inirastruc:ture Omsumer detrumd. Modem m&lufacturing techniques and improved materials have sharply lowered the real cost of consumer goods-radios, remgeratms, television-in recent years, and global distribution systeuad have inaelU'ed their aa:essibility. People in developing countries can thus purchase these goods at a far earlier pomt in the development cycle than did people in today's industrial countries. Efforts to supply these increasing demands for energy will face many contraints, including: Financial cost1uinls. Capital intensive electricity generating stations and petroleum refineries al ready account for a large part of all public investment budgets in developing countries, with electric utilities taking the lion's share. Yet, annual power sector investments would have to double to provide adequate supplies. This would take up virtually the entire projected annual iDaease in developing countries' GNP, leaving little for other pn!S8ing development needs. A large part of the investment in capital equipment for energy facilities and in fuel to operate them must be paid for in sc:arce foreign exc:ban~ which is aheady under pressure in many coun tries to service foreign debt. In addition, there is often. a shortage of local cutrency to pay for energy development due to inadequate revenues f.rom existing operations. Out of concern for the rural and urban poor and to aid development of key sectors such as agricultme, ere.gy price&includmgtbatofkerosene, diesel,andelec:tridfyare often kept too low to fmance the expansion of new fadJities. Institu-tional CI.JhStN-ints. The power sectors in developing countries frequently experience a wide range of institutional problems, includmg excessivestaffing, inadequate management, weak planning, poor maintenance, deficient fiwrndaJ monitoring, and few incentives to improve efficiency of operation. This raises questions about the ability of this key sector to continue expanding rapidly even if fuvmdal resources were available. Enrn1wunenal impacts. Modem energy tedmologies, by substituting cleaner modern fuels for smoky traditional biomass fuels; improving agri cultural productivity and land use; and powering envuomnenta1 control system:, such as sewage treatment:., can improve environmental quality. But energy use also contn.1,utes to the accelerating rates of environmental degradation now occurring in developing countries. Fossil fuel com bustion in modern industry, transport, and electricity generation causes air polludon-already often higher in developing country cities than .in most industrial country cities. Energy produc:t:ionr such as hydroelectric or coal mine develo~ can cause the loss of agricultural land and displace local populations. Energy use .in developing countries is also of global eimronmenta1 concern. For example, tbeir share of world eurisaions of carbon dioxide the most significant greenhouse gasfrom the burning of fossil fuel is projected to rise f.rom 25 to 44 percent .in 2025. If the carbon dioxide impacts of tropical deforestation are included, the developing countries' share of world carbon dioxide emi8frimw rises significantly. These problems underline the need for using energy efficiently. Th.ere are many opportunities for gzea.t1y improved efficiencies in energy production and use .in the developing countries. Modem cookstoves, for example, are four times more fuel efficient than traditional stoves. Integrated iron and steel plan.ts in Cuna and hulia use nearly twice as much euagy per metric ton of crude steel produced as state-of-the-art plants. In the developing world's energy supply .industry, thermal powerpJants often operate far below design capacity and efficiency. Raising these efficiencies could moderate the expansion in energy supplies while still providing the energy services needed for development. The importance of factors other than technology must be recognized in securing energy efficiency improvements. Rational decisions made in a com plex maze of regulatory and economic incentives and disincentives often lead to ''meffic:ient'' results. For example, .in Indiar large agric:ultmal subsidjes for migation pumping have lead to inefficient use of electricity in such applications. In Brazil, highly efficient refriget:ator components are manufactured for export but are not used domesHcalJy as these units cannot tolerate the voltage fluc:tuations found in the domestic electric: supply system. Industrial users copmg with antiquated machinery, lack of spare parts, mappropriate pricing and allocation systeu:w, and erratic fuel supplies of unc:ert:ain quality, find it difficult to improve energy efficiency. The second report of this assessment, scheduled for release .in the fall of 1991, will evaluate ways of better providing energy services for develo~ mcludmg technologies (more efficient consumer appliances, industrial processes, and transport sys tems, as well as new and improved .mergy supply systeu:w) and the institutional and policy mechanisms that determine their rate of adoption. Based on this analysis, Ou\ will e,cau:Jine the role of the U.S. Government .in promoting the transfer of improved energy technologies to developing countries. Car,ia of the rqo,t far amgressitm,,l use 1ft tmlUllbllt by calling 4-9241. Car,ia of thtl rqo,t far non-amgressitm,,l use am be ardattJ. fnnn thtl S~ of Documents, U.S. Gawmmmt Printing Offia, Wrshington, DC 20402-9325 (202) 783-3238. T1w GPO stodc manbmfar tha OTA rq,ort, "'Energy in Dt!adoping Cauntrio," ia 052-003-01219-7. T1w -pria ill $7.00. For fvrl info11natiw1 ambu:t OTA's Publiaztiona Offia. .Add7as: OTA, U.S. Congnss, Nrshinpm, DC 2D51
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OTA Report_ Brief February 1991 Changing by Degrees: Steps To Reduce Greenhouse Gases The United States can decrease its emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2 ) to as much as 35 percent below 1987 levels within the next 25 years by adopting an aggressive package of policies crossing all sectors of the economy. Such emissions reductions will be difficult to achieve and may be costly, but no major technological breakthroughs are needed. OTA iden tified a "Tough" package of energy conservation, energy supply, and forest management practices to accomplish this level of emissions reductions. OTA also presents a package of cost-effective, "Moderate" technical options, which if adopted, would hold CO2 emissions to about a 15-percent increase over 1987 levels by 2015. In contrast, if the United States takes no new actions to curb energy use, CO2 emissions will likely rise another 50 percent during that time. CO2-the major "greenhouse gas"-accounted for an estimated 55 percent. of the global warming commitment caused by human activities over the last decade. Greenhouse gases trap much of the heat from sunlight, potentially leading to significant changes in the Earth's climate. The United States is the single largest contributor of greenhouse gases. With only S percent of the world's population, the United States accounts for 20 percent of the world's warming commitment. OTA examined a suite of technical and policy measures that could be adopted in four sectors of the U.S. economy-buildings (commercial and residential), manufacturing, transportation, and energy supply. We modeled about 100 discrete, energy related technical options-including relatively quick retrofits to existing equipment and, in the long term, introduction of more efficient technologies to re place wom out equipment and satisfy a growing economy's needs. OTA also identified steps to increase carbon uptake by U.S. forests and thereby offset CO2 emissions, as well as methods to control emissions of other greenhouse gases, primarily from the food sector. No single option, nor focus on a single sector of the economy, can achieve major emissions reduc tions alone. Of the CO2 reductions possible under OTA' s Tough scenario, about 30 percent would come from commercial and residential buildings; Carbon Emissions Under the Base case, Moderate, and Tough Scenarios a 2.0 .,.....----------------, 150"' : ] :.::~:'n.. -,, CJ tram 2015 12 5,i, CD 5 baH : : cl 0 1. CD .. ::I Ill t 100"' a ... 1.0 s Off from -----t_ i 75,i, :g CD 50,1, 3 ii' _g .. toraatry ........ ,.. (,0 jo.5 C 25,1, g (,0 ai 0.0 1987 2015 2015 2015 Base Base Moderate Tough Buildings Transport D Industry m Electric utilities NOTE: The boxee outlined with dashed lines represent the reducl/ons in carbon emissionsassociatedwithcontrol memures applied in each of the three demand-side sectors (I.e., buildings, industry, and transportation) and electricity supply (electric utllitlas); additional carbon offsets afforded by forestry memuras are also shown. Tha boxN outllned with solid II nee rapreeant totll/ emissions from each demancHide sec1Dr. Emissions asaociated with electricity genera tion haw bNn alocated to the thrH demand-side sectors. SOURCE: Office of Technology ~ment, 1991. about 25 percent from manufacturing; between 15 and 20 percent each from transportation and electric utilities; and about 10 percent from forestry. A variety of Federal policy initiatives will be required to achieve large reductions in U.S. CO2 emissions. Such policy actions will have to include both regulatory "push" and market "pull" mechanisms-including performance standards, tax in centive programs, carbon-emission or energy taxes, labeling and efficiency ratings, and research, devel opment, and demonstration activities. To achieve lasting reductions, government signals (e.g., pricing and regulatory policies) need to be consistent and reinforcing. Otherwise, we are likely to see reversals as in the 1980s, when energy prices decreased, Federal attention lapsed, and U.S. fossil-fuel consumption started climbing again. A 35-percent reduction in U.S. CO2 emissions during the next 25 years would not, by itseli, stop global warming. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the U.S. Environmental Protec-The Office of Technology Assessment (OI'A) is an analytical arm of the US. Congress. OI'A's basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes.

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Selected Options To Lower U.S. carbon Dioxide Emissions ....,,,_ that atftlt:t all sectors: Promising polk:y options: efficiency standards, carbon eml881on Prornslng poUcy options: tlghterfuel efficiency standards forc:ars limits, and/or moratorium on new coat carbon em1881on tax and trucks fired powerplants lll8lk8tablepermHsfarcamanemillllons gasoline tax RD&D for noncarbon energy sources RD&D for noncarbon energy sources transportation control measuras {e.g., Forestry: and ~-efficient technologies hlgh-occupancyvehic:lelanesandpark-11Jchnlca opllons: Buildings: 7iK:hn/cal options: Ing management), better mass transit, lncreulng proctuctlvtty of forests and Improved urban design planting trees on marginal croplands, Batter Insulation, windows, and Im proved constructfon methods to lower Manutacturtng: other nonforested rural lands, and In Tec:hnk:al options: urban areas heating and caoflng needs cantfnulng process Improvements growing short-rotation woody crops for especially for Iran and steel, chemluse aa biomass fuels more efficient furnaces, air conditioners, and appllances cals, paper, and petroleum /lronulng polcy options: Increased cageneratlon at electrtclty lnc:reue existing Federal forestry u Improved lighting, eapeclalJy In commen:181 buildings and heat slatance prcgrams Pronnlng po/Icy options: lmpnMld electrfc motors expand Conaarvatlon R888Mt Ptagnlll fuel swtllchlng from coal ID gas tax lncentlws for fora8t managament. efflc:lency standards such as tighter appllance standards and building energy codes for new conatructlan Pronaing po/Icy options: tree plantlnv carban em1881on tax Food: demand-side managenwtt" programs by efectrfc and gas utilities to fadHtata lmprcMHnants In 8lllstlng buildJngs joint lndustry/utlllty programs for "de-1lilchnlca/ options: mand-slde management'" decntasellvestockmethaneemlsslons marketable carbon emission permits lnc:reueefflc:lencyofnltrogen fertilizer use ID raci,ce nitrous oxide emissions Information programs such as energy audits and home energy ratings as a raqutrement for mortgages E1:trlt:lly generation: take margfnaJ aoplands out of production and rotate aops Technical options: Increased use of nonfoaail sources PronuJng polcy options: Transportation: (e.g., hydro, wind, solar, nuclear) 7iK:hn/cal options: co-firing existing coal-fired plants with lna-8888 research funding ID evaluate efficacy of mathane-tedudng practices fuel efficiency Improvements natural gas Increased use of maas transit, van l'8tlrlng eldatlng fossil-fuel-fired plants pools, and carpools after 40 years require farmers ID adopt environmentally sound agrlc:ultural practices as a prerequisite forrecaiving Federal price and Income supports more efficient vehicle operation Promising pollcy optJons: through meaauree ID raduce congee. l'l"Brlatatlle carbon emission permits continue to remove disincentives to crap ratatlons tlon. raln8tate 55-mph speed limit carbon em1881on tax tion Agency suggest that stabilizing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will require a 50to SO-percent reduction in cei emissions from oment levels 'll10ridfl1ide, as well as significantreductionsin theother greenhousegase&chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), methane, and nitrous oxides. Thus, a global effort would be needed. Internationally, the United States c:ould work towards a worldwide agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, similar to the Montreal Protocol that phases out CFCs, the second largest contnbutor to global warming. Several other industrialized countries have called for either a freeze ar 20-percent reduction in cei emissions by 2000 ar shortly thereafter. All industrialized countries cur rently account for about two-thirds of the greenhouse gases. Also, the United States could help developing countries control their greenhouse gas emissions while maintaining needed economic growth. A similar goal is appropriate for the U.S.S.R. and Eastern Europe, where institutional obstacles such as centrali7.ed planning and highly subsidiz.ed energy resources have led to energy-inefficient societies. The United States could encourage emissions reductions in all of these countries by placing more emphasis in its foreign aid policies on, for example, switching to nonfossil fuels, developing energyefficient technologies, sustainable use of forest and agricultural resources, and adopting international fme,tzy protocols. For developing countries, more over, the United States must also consider popula tion growth and foreign debt issues. Ultimately, nonfossil energy sources such as solar technologies and/ ar a new generation of nuclear power must replace fossil fuels if the world hopes to keep emissions &om rising under continued economic growth. The Tough options identified by OTA not only can reduce emissions in the short they can also help the U.S. economy (as well as others) make the transition to anonfossil fuel future. To be poised for this transition, inaeased funding for researchr and demonstration is needed to help bring the non-greenhouse gas emitting technologies on line. ea,;. a/ thll rqorl fur congrtssiJmAI """ an amilllble by calling 4-9241. ea,;. a/ tJu, rqort and SU1llffllllY fur nan-consressional """ am br orrierr.rl from thll Supt!rintendent a/ ~. U.S. Gooe,: hmclft Printing 0/fia, Wlshington, DC 20402-9325 (202) 783-3238. 11w GPO stodc numbtrr fur the OTA report, "Chtmging by DegrOIII: Stqa 1b Rtrlua GratUIIIUIM GluJa," ia 052~1223-5. 11w price is $16.00. 11w GPO stocJc manber fur the is 052--003-o1224-a. 11w price is $2.75. For fvrther in{omuztion amtad OI'A's Publiaztilms 0/fia. Address: OTA, U.S. Cong,as, Wzshington, DC 20510-8025 (202) 224-8996.

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OTA Report Brief February 1991 Complex Cleanup: The Environmental Legacy of Nuclear Weapons Production For nearly a half-century, nuclear weapons--a key element of US. defense strategy-have been produced at facilities run by the Department of Energy (DOE) and its predecessor agencies. The facilities that comprise the Nuclear Weapons Com plex have generated waste, much of it toxic, and have released vast quantities of hazardous cheini cals and radionuclides to the environment. Radioac tive and hazardous wastes have been buried through out the Complex, and local contamination of soil, sediments, surface water, and groundwater is exten sive. The scope and complexity of the waste and contamination throughout the Complex present unprecedented challenges. Public concern about these problems has reached major proportions, and environmental laws have finally forced the direction of attention and resources toward the goals of environmental restoration and safe waste manage ment. DOE, other Federal agencies, and the States are attempting to carry out their responsibilities toward achieving these goals. The OTA Findings Progress in cleaning up the waste and contamination at the Complex is being hampered by a paucity of. data and qualified personnel, lack of ready technical solutions, and public .skepticism toward government agencies in general and the Department of Energy in particular. Moreover, the current approach to cleanup does not include a coherent and comprehensive strategy for evaluating off-site Department of Energy Nuclear Weapons Complex Lawrence Uvermore National Laboratory Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) Sandia National Laboratory Waste Isolation PIiot Plant (WIPP) SOURCE: Office at Technology Asaeament, 1991. The Office of Technology Assessment (orA.) is an analytical arm of the US. Congress. orA.'s basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes.

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human exposure to Weapons Complex contamina tion, and for investigating potential health impacts due to the contamination. As a result,. no reliable basis or public confidence exists for 1U1.derstanding md identifying public health risks, addressing community concerns about health impacts, and setting health-based cleanup priorities and standards. DOB has prepared a Five-Year Plan (first issued in 1989 and updated in 1990) that describes its goals, strategies, and specific programs for assessment and cleanup of contaminated sites and facilities. The 1990 rive-Year Plan calls for expenditures totaling more than $30 billion on environmental restoration and waste management activities for fiscal years 1991 through 1996, but this represents only the initial phase of a program that could ultimately require hundreds of billions of dollars. The DOE goal stated in the Five-Year Plan and elsewhereto clean up all weapons sites within 30 years-is not based on meaningful estimates of the work to be done or the level of cleanup to be accomplished at the end of that time. Some of the sites may never be restored to a condition pemtltting unrestrided access md use; thus, cleanup goals would need to be revised. The environmental restoration program underway at the Weapons Complex is in the very early stages, and little actual cleanup work has been done. At a few sites, some. simple containment and stabilization activities have been performed by "capping", or by removing contaminated soil and storing it elsewhere in a more controlled form. Technologies that could effectively remediate cer tain sites either are not available or cannot be applied with the resources now contemplated. It may be impossible with cunent technology to remove contaminants from certain groundwater plumes and deeply buried soil or, even if possible, it may be extremely expensive or require prolonged periods of operation. The most promising new technologies will require many years of researchr development, md testing at specific sites. The cleanup of the Weapons Complex is being conducted in the context of State and Federal environmental laws and regulations that have been developed during the past two decades. EPA is attempting to use the interagenczy agreements negotiated with individual States and the DOB facilities to resolve jurisdictional overlaps and disputes, and to serve as a timetable for cleanup actions. But acceptable cleanup levels have yet to be determined for many DOB weapons sites. Although no consensus has been reached on how or where to dispose of it,. most of the waste generated in the past and much of the waste yet to be generated is clearly destined to remain at the site of generation-for the indefinite future. This in cludes the most hazardous and toxic materials in storage or being generated-espedally high-level radioactive waste, tramuranic waste, and nuxed radioactive and hazardous waste. Until safe geo logic disposal capabilities are available, there will be an increasing need to store these wastes safely on-site. Policy Initiati'Des OTA has concluded that effective cleanup of the Weapons Complex in the next several decades is unlikely unless aggressive policy initiatives are taken. These initiatives should be direded toward improving the performance of DOB and other involved Federal and State agencies, and toward enhancing the credibility and public acceptability of the decisionmaking processes for waste management and environmental restoration. Policy initia tives outlined by OTA include inaeased congres sional oversight over agency activities to assure that needed agency personnel are developed, standardsetting is accelerated, and cleanup technology is developed. Initiatives also include site-specific and national mechanisms for involving the public in decisions about waste management and environ mental restoration objectives, priorities, and activi ties. Other policy initiatives involve substituting independent, extemal regulation for the present DOB self-regulation over radioactive waste management; and enhancing the strudure and process for assessing potential health impacts. Although the cleanup will be a long and difficult task, OTA' s analyses indicate that these policy initiatives could significantly improve the prospects that sound and a-edible cleanup decisions will be achieved. Establishing site-specific and national advisory bodies to provide independent policy and technical advice could improve prospects for open, credible, and cooperative dedsionmaking on key aspects of the cleanup. Substituting independent regulatory auth~rity for DOB's self-regulation in radioactive waste management activities could en hance the quality of waste management decisions. And, the direction and coordination of site-specific health assessments by an independent and authori tative entity could improve prospects for achieving sdenti:fkally sound as well as publicly acceptable evaluations of possible off-site health impacts, re solving community health concerns, and developing health-based cleanup priorities. Copio of the report fer amgrasumal 11st: are tmta1able 1,y mlling 4-9241. Co,no of the report fer non-amgressumal 11st: am be urdertd from the S~ of Docummts, U.S. Gm1mnnmt Printing Offia, Wlahington, DC 20402-9325 (202) 783-3238. ThaGPOstodcmanbo-ferthd OTA report, "Comple:i:C!eanup: T1re Emnronmental ug,u:y of Nuclear W!apons Production," is 052~1222-7. The pria is $10.00. Summaries of rq,orts an amilable at no charge from thd Offia of Thchnology Assasment. For further infanruzti.m contact OTA' s Publiaztions Offia. Addnss: OTA, U.S. Congress, 'Nlahington, DC 20510-8025 (202) 224-8996.

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OTA Report Brief February 1991 Technology Against Terrorism: The Federal Effort The last three decades have witnessed wide spread terrorism on a global scale. Aircraft have been hijacked or exploded in flight; hostages have been taken and held to extort political, monetary, or military concessions. Individuals have been killed, buildings bombed, and cruise ships attacked. The hallmark of most of this terrorist upsurge has been the taking of innocent human life for political motives. And the United States, its citizens, repre sentatives, and economic assets have been prime targets around the world. Current threats from Iraqi officials and their terrorist allies, arising from the Gulf War, make the threat even more immediate. Technology can provide the equipment to help defend the Nation and its citizens against terrorism. Of course, no technological panacea exists to halt all such attacks. But technology is one of an array of tools to use in the fight; it is also an area in which the United States has a distinct advantage over both terrorist groups and their state sponsors. However, Federal R&D programs in support of counterterrorist technology need higher priority. At present the level of support for research is small and, in some cases, dwindling. The goals of this research may be as important to our national security as work in other areas of defense that are much more visible and receive vastly more funding. Several projects identified as potentially valuable have been seriously delayed by insufficient or intermittent funding. The broadestinteragency group in charge of addressing the terrorist problem has been handicapped by a steadily declining R&:D budget: starting with $10 million in 1986/1987, the funding level has dropped to $2 million per year for fiscal years 1990 and 1991. This interagency body, the Technical Support Working Group (TSWG) of the Policy Coordinating Committee on Terrorism, is responsible for funding counterterrorist research that is needed but not being carried out by any of the agencies because it falls into the gaps between adjacent missions and jurisdictions. In particular, there is little effort outside TSWG that addresses a potential major component of tomorrow's terrorist threat attacks with chemical or biological agents. The TSWG research and development budget should be increased and stabilized. OTA also addresses the problem of detecting attempts to smuggle explosives onto airplanes. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has estab lished a rule that eventually would require the use of explosives detection systems (EDS) to screen checked (but not carry-on) baggage in many airports serving U.S. carriers. The thermal neutron analysis (TNA) system is the only system thus far approved by the FAA. However, because of questions about the equipment's effectiveness, OTA believes it is premature to mandate the widespread acquisition of1NA. Many other lines of research are being pursued, many under FAA auspices, to produce more effec tive means of detecting small bombs that are clandestinely introduced aboard commercial air craft. The various techniques range from nuclear diagnostic methods. (among them, 1NA), to x-ray imaging, to vapor detection. Given the current state of the art, a combination of different technologies would seem to present the most robust system for countering this terrorist threat. OTA suggests that an independent board of experts might evaluate all detection devices proposed as part of an EDS under the FAA rule. The National Institute of Standards and Technology is one agency that could do this. Further, more work in the area of human factors would be useful. In areas such as passenger profil ing, inspector training, ergonomics, and better man agement, improved human capabilities can supplement and, sometimes, substitute for complicated equipment. The application of this field of study to airline security has been comparatively neglected in the United States; in a few other countries, notably Israel, more use has been made of the human element in security systems. Copies fur congressumal US4 are flTNlilable by calling 4-9241. The full OTA report on "1echno'/ogy Against Terrorism: The Federal Efft,rt" will be aoailable after declassification; only a summary has been released at this time. Copies am be be ordered frmn tM Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Gaoernment Printing Offia, 'Nzshington, DC 20402-9325 (202) 783-3238. The GPO stock number is 052--003--01226-3. The price is $1.00. For further in.frmnation contact OTA' s Publiaztions Office. Address: OTA, U.S. Congress, 'Nzshington, DC 20510-8025 (202) 224-8996. The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress. OT.A's basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes.

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OTA Report Brief April 1991 Federally Funded Research: Decisions for a Decade Research provides extraordinary benefits to soci ety. Through the aeation of new knowledge and the training of scientists and engineers, research helps to achieve national goals ranging from public health to national and economic security. Because the reach of science is great, decisions about research funding (both basic and applied} are intertwined with many Federal activities. OTA finds that given the exceptional strength of the U.S. research system and the character of scientific research, there will always be more opportunities than can be supported, more qualified researchers competing than can be sustained, and more institutions seeking to expand than the prime sponsor-the Federal Govemment-canfund. The objective, then, is to ensure that the best research continues to be funded, that a full portfolio of research is maintained, and that there is a sufficient research work force of high caliber to assure scientific progress. In the decade ahead, the Federal Govemm.ent will make hard choices, in guiding the research system, even beyond matters of merit and constricted budgets. Whatever the nmding level, Congress, the executive branch, and research performers must converge on issues of research planning, manage ment, and progress toward national goals. ISSUE 1: Setting Priorities in Support of Research Research priorities are set throughout the Federal Government at many levels in both the executive and legislative branches. However, these efforts fall short. F'll'St, criteria used in selecting various areas of research and megaprojects are not made explicit, and appear to vary widely. This is particularly a problem at the highest levels of priority setting, e.g., in the President's budget and the congressional decision process. Second, there is currently no formal or explicit mechanism for evaluating the total research portfolio of the Federal Government in terms of progress toward national objectives. Third, the principal criteria for selection, "scientific merit" and "mission relevance," are, in practice, coarse filters. Taking the development of human resources as well as regional and institutional capacity into account will build future research capability with-out compromising the quality of today's research. While not every project or agency will attend to these criteria equally, the total Federal research portfolio should reflect these concerns. Priority-setting mechanisms that cut across re search fields and agencies, and that make selection criteria more transparent, must be strengthened in both Congress and the executive branch. Congress should insist, at a minimum, that the executive branch present the criteria or rationale underlying budget choices. Other criteria may be considered in congressional decisions. Since megaproject costs affect the initiation of new projects within an agency's budget, megaprojects (e.g., the Supercon ducting Super Collider and the Space Station) are chief candidates for crosscutting priority setting. ISSUE 2: Understanding Research Expenditures Federalfundingforresearchincreased from.roughly $8 billion in 1960 (1990 dollars) to over $21 billion in 1990. During this period, the number of researchers grew steadily, at least doubling. Salaries of senior investigators and reimbursement for indirect costs account for the largest, fastest growing shares of The Office of Technology Assessment (OIA) is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress. OTA's basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes.

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Federal research expenditures. Many claim that increases in the "costs of doing research" outpace increases in Federal research funding, but the nu merous, sometimes inconsistent meanings of "costs," and the lack of a suitable measure of "research," make this claim all but impossible to evaluate. Specific research activities generally become cheaper to complete over time, due to increasing productiv. ity, for example, of computers and other technolo gies. However, advances in instrumentation and knowledge allow deeper probing of more complex scientific problems. Because success in the research environment depends heavily on "getting there first," there is clear advantage to having the finan cial support for additional staff and cutting-edge technology. Thus, competition drives up demand for funding. In this sense, the costs of research will continue to outpace any increases in Federal funding. Greater cost-accountability could be encouraged by the executive branch and Congress. In particular, the Federal Government should seek to eliminate the confusion around allowable indirect costs, and develop better estimates of future expenditures, especially for megaprojects where final costs can be well above initial estimates. ISSUE 3: Adapting Education and Human Resources To Meet Changing Needs Three issues are central to education and human resources for the research work force: 1. OTA analysis shows the value to the Nation regardless of employment opportunities in the research sector--of motivating students in science and engineering a<-12 through undergraduate), and of preparing graduate students for career paths in or outside of research. 2. The opportunities and aspirations of groups presently underparticipating in science and engineering (e.g., women and minorities) must be confronted. New legislation, "set-aside" programs (which offer competitive research grants to targeted groups), and mainstream programs can increase the participation and sustain the diversity of people and institutions in the research system. 3. Research in many fields of science and engi neering is moving toward a more "industrial" model, with larger teams, specialized respon sibilities, and the sharing of infrastructure. While acknowledging these changes in the provision of centers and block-grants, the Federal Government should also encourage universities to examine their policies concerning the organization of research and opportunities for nonprincipal investigators. ISSUE 4: Refining Data Collection and Analysis To Improve Research Dedsionmaking Data collected on the health of the Federal re search system in some areas-science and engineering funding allocations, degrees granted, and work force characteristics-are extensive. However, in other areas, data and indicators are scarce, especially concerning the research work force, the re search process, and outcome measures. In addition, most of the research agencies, with the exception of the National Science Foundation and the National Institutes of Health, devote few resources to internal data collection. Additional information could be collected for different levels of dedsionmaking, concentrating in areas of policy relevance for Congress and the executive branch. Refined in-house and extramural data, analysis, and interpretation would be instructive for dedsionmaking and for managing research performance in the 1990s. Copia of the summary fur congressional use are available by calling 4-9241. Copia of the summary fur non-congressional use can be ardered fram the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Goaernment Printing Office, Wishingtan, DC 20402-9325 (202) 783-3238. The GPO stock number is 052-003--01232-4. The price is $2.50. Copies of the report "Federally Funded Research: Decisions fur a Deau:le," will be amilabk in late April 1991. For further information contact OTA's Publications Office. Address: OTA, U.S. Congress, Wishingtan, DC 20510-8025 (202) 224-8996. 1iN1slons In the Federal Research System Centralization of research planning Plurallstlc, decentralized agencies Set-aside programs -Mainstreaming c:rtterla in addition to scientific merit and program relevance (e.g., ethnicity, gender, principal inves tigator experience) Peer review-based allocatlon Other funding decision mechanisms (agency manager dlsaetlon, congressional earmarking) Concentrated excellence Regional and institutional development Dollars for facilities Dollars for research projects Large-scale, multlyear, capital-intensive, high-cost Individual investigator and small-team, 1-5 year projects per-investigator initiatives Training researchers in the model of their mentors (and aeatlng Encouraging a diversity of career paths (and easing competlmore competition) tlon for funds) SOURCE: Offlca of Technology ~ent, 1991.

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Selected News Clips on OTA Publications and Activities The following is a representative sample (about 2.5 percent) of the clippings received during the last quarter. These clippings refer to 8 different OTA publications. Members of Congress participated in the public release of 7 of the 8 publications issued this quarter. OTA ASSESSMENT REPORTS Technology Against Terrorism: The Federal Effort Finding the Rx for Managing Medical Wastes Complex Cleanup: The Environmental Legacy of Nuclear Weapons Production Changing By Degrees: Steps to Reduce Greenhouse Gases Energy in Developing Countries The Use of Integrity Tests for Pre-employment Screening Health Care in Rural America Worker Training: Competing in the New International Economy

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RADIO CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM .iU~.(1,ELLFS 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD LIVINGSTON NEW JERSEY 07039 r2011992-6600 1800! 631-1160 F cbruarv 26. 1991 -l:30-5:00 PM American Public Radio Monitor Radio Rob Nelson. host: ACCOUNT NUMBER Months ago. as the danger of war with Iraq escalated. U.S. go\'ernment agencies began to prepare the nation for the possibilities of terrorism. Security measures were strenl!thened at ~o,ernment offices. airoorts and other nott:'ntial targets. and as expected. the ,oiume of terrorist ::ittacks against Ameri~ans rose as the war began. Correspondent Jane Leuters reports from Washington that the Bush administration is now having trouble pushing their anti-terrorism package through Congress. Jane Leuters reporting: While Americans remain comparati\'ely untouched by terrorism. m~rny recall vividly and with horror the downing of P::in Am Flight 103 in December of 1988. (Leuters reports on a task force report on terrorism. Maurice Busby. who worked on the task force. shares his views.) !< :,: :; Leuters: 1:\lso today the Office of T echnolo~ and .\ssessment released a report entitled "Technology Against Terrorism." The report claims that terrorists weapons are getting smaller and more dangerous e,ery year. and \\ arns of the increased possibility of terrorists using chemical and biological weapons on U.S. soil. Anthony Fainl.,c;>rg. who released the findings of the report. sa, s the U.S. must technologically keep up with terrorists. Fainbere:: Currentlv. the bombs in terms of size are small enoul!h and lethal enough.I don't think therl:'s going to be any great impro,eme11t from the bomb-maker's point of \'iew in that regard. (SUMl'v1ARY: Fainberg comments on possible future technologi.:al de,elopments. Leuters reports on the task force's criticism of the lack of funding for development and research. Fainberg cites lack of congressional support as a major reason for this.) 21 Clips

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l Mut:ffi-;r ~1 t<7/?/ :. U.S. Faulted onAntiterronsm. ~ding Congress Told New Airport Bomb-Detection Devices Are Too Touchy By George Lardner Jr. W ...... PIIIC Staff'Rrilmr Despite the dangers of terrorist reprisals in the aftermath of the Persian Gulf War, there is still no machine that can detect the kind of bomb that blew up Pan Am Flight 103 without touching off too many false alarms, a Senate committee was told yesterday. The fmding was made by the congressional Office of Technology As sessment (OTA) in a special study that criticized the low level of fede~ funding for research and devel opment of new counterterrorist technologies. Although international terrorist incidents since the start of Oper ation Desert Storm are three times the normal rate, witnesses from OTA and government agencies told the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee that only $70 million a year is allocated specifically for counterterrorist research and development and it is scattered among 20 different federal agencies. The only government-wide program, administered by the State Department, gets $2 million, a fifth of what it got when it was set up in 1986. Pan American Flight 103 was blown up over Lockerbie, Scotland, on Dec. 21, 1988, by a plastic explosive device hidden in a radio cas sette and packed in a suitcase in the forward baggage hold. All those on the jumbo jet and 11 residents of Lockerbie-a total of 270 peoplewere killed. Since then, the FAA has issued a rule that eventually will require use of an explosives-detection system to screen checked (but not carryon) baggage at many airports serving U.S. carriers. The only approved system is a thermal neutron analysis (TNA) device that costs more than $1 million each. The FAA has purchased six and has been testing three of them at Dulles and Kennedy airports in the United States and Gatwick airport near London. OT A officials, who said their full report has been held up at the Transportation Department for "security review," warned the committee that mass acquisition and installation of the TNA devices at this time would be "inadvisable." Reaffirming conclusions reached by the presidential commission that investigated the Pam Am 103 crash, Anthony Fainberg, a senior international security analyst at OT A, said that current TNA machines produce such "high false alarm rates" when tuned for sensi tivity to Pan Am 103-size bombs that it might be just as well to search checked luggage by hana. Fainberg urged more attention to other, less expensive technologies such as vapor-detection 'devices. He also criticized. the FAA rule for failing to cover-carry-on baggage. "Ironically," he "the"The FBt in particular, is unable to pursue many promising research projects, especially in the area of explosives detection, because of the minuscule amount of resources available (less than $100,000 per year)." -Office of Technology Alaeaament TNA system might be more effective for screening carry-on baggage than checked luggage, because the interference from innocent baggage articles would be less." Lynne A. Osmus, acting policy and planning director at the FAA for civil aviation security, said OTA had "understated" TNA's capabilities, especially in light of recent tests at Gatwick that reflect improvements in TNA software. She said "specific results are classified,,. but false alarm rates have gone down in the last six months and the device had been doing better in tests "using considerably smaller amounts of explosives." Fainberg told reporters after the hearing that the improvements still don.'t justify mass. acquisition. He said the dispute stems in part from disagreement over acceptable false alarm rates and in part over the weight of the plastic explosive, variously estimated at three-quarters of a pound to more than a pound, that blew up Pan Am 103. The OTA study, made public in summary form, said the $70 million in funding for a>unterterrorist R&D was 7 percent of equivalent De fense Department R&D work and 3 percent of this, year's appropriation for the space station. "The FBI, in particular, is unable to pursue many promising research projects, especially in the area of explosives detection, because of the minuscule amount of resources available (less than $100,000 per year)," the report said. Under questioning by Committee Chairman John Glenn (D-Ohio), witnesses from the State Department, the FBI and other agencies said that counterterrorist R&D is a constant target for department budget cutters, the Office of Management and Budget and congressional appropriations committees. Morris D. Busby, coordinator for counterterrorism at State, said he has "despaired" of getting enough money from his department and credited committee member William S. Cohen (R-Maine) for pressing the Defense Department to seek more in its budget. As a result, Busby said the fiscal 1992 budget request includes $10 million for the government-wide program, which is what it got in 1986, and should "al low us to complete on-going projects and start essential new ones." Offering one example, Busby showed the committee the proto type of a lightweight hood that will fit in a coat pocket and offer 20 to 30 minutes of protection against "all known chemical agents." It was developed for $100,000 and is expected to be produced for government VIPs later this year. "I've been to a number of con~ional hearings where I wish l had one of those," Busby told the committee. Ditto for meetings at the State Department, responded Glenn.

PAGE 47

hs fngdes -Whnes LOS ANGELES, CALIF. CA-352 0.1,122.952 FEB 27 1991 f!!!!L~ ~mc.cr.1t an~ 111:hrcntci~ ROCHESTER, N.Y. NY-587 0.127,720 I MAR l 1991 __ ..;a.;;v;@;!R.;!e:.;UF.;;;;~:s------------------------- EDITORIALS ~ ., ,I _'.., I Arm now for the next Y!!r T err~fi~ now on the ~ong 20 federal agenoies. <... TheFBI, for example, receives less nse, IS a real threatthan $100,000 8: ~ar leaving it_ una~le b to pursue promwng research project:s m etter get ready now exploaives detection. Perhaps only a killjoy would choose this day of national rejoicing to write about the danger of terrorism. But there's news that's too important to be lost in the cheers of victory. This week a special study on terrorism by the congressional Office of Tec~Aseessment waa made public., The fiiidings are alarming. Since the start of the gulf war, the number of terrorist incident.a has tripled. The end of the war may increase that. "There has been an aftermath of terrorism to every conflict in the Middle East for the last three decades," says the State Department's coordinator for counter-terrorism. Yet only $70 million a year is being spent to develop new counter-terrorist technologies, and the money is scattered ---------------/'\ Meanwhile, airports still have no machinM for detecting the kind of bomb that blew up Pan Am Flight 103 in 1988. The mast promising~ which Ull88 thermal neutron analysis, is so sensitive that it touches off too many false alarma--and caet.a more than $1 million apiece. Inatalling such maehines at every major airport. would cause long delays at enormous cost. You'd do just as well to search all luggage by hand. Clearly, the answei::is more attention to counter-1:errorism ~and more money to fund new technologies. The. slaughter of Iraqi troops and the civilian carnage in Baghdad will leave a legacy of hatred in the Arab world for years to come. Since we'll be the targets:J. we'd better start arming ourselves now. -. .. ... __ J. .. i '\... U.S. Skimps on Terrorist Defenses, Senate Told Security: Incidents are expected to increase after the Gulf War, experts testify. But funding to combat them has been cut bac~ ~. an \y~\ I~ By WILLIAMJ. EATON TIMES STAFF WRITER WASHINGTON-The threat of terrorism is expected to increase if the Gulf War ends in humiliating defeat for Iraq, but the U.S. government is skimping on the money to develop counterterrorist technology, experts told a Senate hearing Tuesday. A top State Department official reported a sharp upsurge in terrorist incidents-more than three times the usual number-since the start of the war against Iraq. Most of the incidents primarily have resulted in property damage. "The threat of terrorism will continue in the future," said Morris D. Busby, coordinator for counterterrorism. "There has been an aftermath of terrorism to every conflict in the Middle East for the last three decades, and although we hope it will not be the case in this one, we must assume and plan for the worst." Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (D-Conn.) agreed, saying: "Terrorism is the coward's weapon. After humiliation. terrorists strike back. so in the aftermath of the Gulf War, we should toughen our defenses against terrorism." Sen. John Glenn (D-Ohio), who as chairman of the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee presided at Tuesday's hearing, said chemical and biological agents soon may be employed in terrorist attacks against the United States. "The increasing number of terrorist threats is not the only story here-the weapons that terrorists use are getting deadlier each year," Glenn said at the outset of the hearing. But the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) said the government was sharply reducing money for a key coordi nating agency-the Technical Support Working Group-in anti-terrorism research. From a peak of $10 million in 1986-87, the office reported, Congress provides only $2 million a year for the working group, delaying development of devic es that could improve bomb detection at airports and thwart chemical or biological attacks. "This steady and drastic reduction in funding is ill-advised," said Anthony Fainberg, director of th~ agency's project on counterterrorism research, who recommended a return to the $10-million level for the interagency group. Busby, speaking for the Bush Administration, agreed that more money should be allocated to speed development of anti-terrorism technolo gy. But the experts reported that no sure-fire method has been found to detect small quanti ties of the type of plastic explosive used in the bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, in December. 1988. "OT A finds no technological 'silver bullet' that will protect against the introduction of bombs onto airliners," said Alan Shaw, the agency's manager for international security. "Rather, we should seek to devise a system with multiple complimentary parts that together provide greater breadth of coverage than any single detection method can. There are many promising areas of technology ... but no one that can do the job alone." The OTA report said it now was rnadvisable for the Federal Aviation Admimstrauon to require airports to install a large number oi costly devices using thermal neutral analysis for detecting bombs in checked baggage. "The utility of this detector for finding bombs of the size that caused the Lockerbie crash has been widely questioned." the report said. It also said a series of tests have confirmed that the device causes too many false alarms for practi cal use in a busy airport. The agency noted that the special equipment. which is bulky and time-consummg to operate, costs more than $1 million per machine. Until better technology is available, the agency recommended other steps, mcluding hand rn spection of all suspect baggage and better passenger screening, to improve airline secun. ty. But Lynne A. Osmus, acting director of the office of civil aviation security policy anc planning for the FAA, defended the devices a; "the most promising [explosive detection sys tem) to date," adding that performance tests a' Gatwick Airport in England have been prom1s ing.

PAGE 48

_2/oP? I 9/ rmiHJJWY~ffMBS NAYI -A :BO.MB SCANNER GETS MIXED REVIEW. Two Federal Agencies at Odds Over Accuracy of Machine to Detec;t Explosives--... -----'. ..-; .. BOIII DETECTlllllt NMr atrpmt bomb-detection devices have lmAtoved hi tile past six montbs, and now can llnd smaller amoun1S of explosives with fewer false alarms, the FAA said Tuesday. But the coogre!!Sional Oftlce of Technol ogy A...-ueot slid the new thermal neutron analysis or TNA detecton-used at three international airportt-are flawed and no more should be ~-Toe report was ftni8hed in' September. But its releue wu del~ until today while -GooNa nmeat agencies checked for classified data. 'ther 111adilnes' use low-energy ne'l,liotrons to produce interactions With the nuclei of the nitrogen atoma, which are typically found at hip levels ia-uplosives. The interactions produce gamma radiation. which can be de tected and identified, potentially ... ing to the hiding place of a bom~. The F.A.A. is usq the machines tQ. check lugpge at Gatwick.. Dulles International Airport neu.. Washingua and Kennedy International Airport iq;_ New York City. :~. Three other machines are awaidna installation elsewhere.

PAGE 49

J ,._..... \ 'J STAR-LEDGER NEWARK, NJ DAILY 461,083 HONDAV FEB 251991 169 f!!!!J/SEU.FS XF ~:r i Medieal :Wash! p~Olic~: is criticized as chaotic l l,e~f sbrrOIIR ;; 0 dri h Sh lie. In 3ddiUon, more infonnatlon ,, { ; :;;;;~;~~~;::tion'S Uf~,Y OW,(. e _, rlS at f e ore ~~t~~i1a~s~~!~:. that ls gen~ J 1=~ ~:!1~::~rrn!~~;~ has led to incohsist ent regulation Jerse~iv;!~nd~~~:n~f~~~1ih~n m~f-' despite efforts by federal, state,and . ;, cal waste found on beaches did not ilocal regulators to establish to1'ber .. .. come from primary generators, such as ti~ standards, a uew congressional New .Jerwey ud elsewhere In 1988. conslstent definitions of medical: hospitals, clmics and doctors offices. lstooy says. Rep. Robert Roe (D-8tll Dist.); tie j wastes. ~eal with waste reducllon and ,A medical waste-tracking system, t The congreilsionaLOffl~.of~ chairman of the House Pu~llc Worb', recycllnf, encourage standards _for put in place on a trial basis in New /_ilol9J!._~meat.(O'..tA).saJd in its W. a,id Tra~pottatlon Committee,. said 1 treatmen. of various types of medical Jersey and several other states by the : es report on medicaJ .wa,ste d~l states acting alone cannot solve tie. waste and require states to devel~ Environmental P~tection Agency, sue! thAt"balc lnflh'l'Jtallon as well a ton, problem. J. . medical wastemanagement plans, ceeded in hamessmg the medical waste sen9'iif on smne _fund~ tasues re::.:, t Roe; who requested-the _OTA re-"Congress," the report said, "could stream from these principal genera-. l maia absentfnmj the efforisto fonnu--.port, sallf a 9elilrate, continuing study move ~d. tbe current approach t~ tors, officials said. I )l~te an ade9uate national medlc'aJ. medical waste disposal in New Jermedical waste man~gement and dffine They suspect that the waste found 1raste policy.' sey also shows that problems persis_l a rnore cornprehen~ive approach.'' on beaches came from in-home genera! ~~ertain,Iy tnore is knowh aboitt. He ~ailed for a broader approach for The repo~ ~id tr~atment technotors-legitimate dru~ users such as dia, ~urrent medical waste management dealing with medical waste. logies, such as mcmeration, will con~lil-belies and illegal mtravenous drug ,prilctlees than' prior to ... 1981. Yet, .. ''The N~w Jersey project has ue to be needed, but waste reduction users. From the homes, officials be,much of the confusion and in~nmtenshown that tfle_ problem of medical -techniques could help limit the waste lieve, the stuff gets Into the surf cy associated with medical waste pol~aste tracking cannot be sol.ved by It-. st_rearn. In ad~itlon, the report said, through sewer overflows, storm sewer icy~~." the ,eporhild. dividual states. One state'.s efforts fo souri:e separation-seg~egahng infecdrainage and waterfront landfills. 16e OTA i'eport>comes nearly track waste from gene,ation todlsposal. tious waste from chemical waste, for Despite the attention focused on 1 tbr~ J~rs aftt!t mt!dical waste-in-can easily be andermined if a neighbor-example-ls also needed. the problem and the action by Con-:c!uding used sytjnges; 'blood baO and mg !:1te Jails to Impose similar con-fncinera~ion, the report said. is gress, the report said little has changed v,als'-first aplleared on New Jersey trols, Rqe said. likely to retnam the most po~ular treat-. on the national level since 19881 when beJcbes. Spurred by tbe New Jersey in-. In its tepon, the OTA satd nation~ iment ~thod, though authontles should the OTA did its first study of the tSSue. 'cidents. Congress enacted a medical al medical ,waste disposal policy could 1examtne newer technologies such as "OT A's 1 9 8 8 background waste tracking bill and .tbe state. put be dealt with as parl of t&e Resource ,steam sterilization, microwaving and paper ... said that no federal regula new controls In place. Conservation add Recovery Act; which :mechanical or chentlcal disinfection. tlons exist that comprehensively ad-Still, according to the OTA, lbere Collgrea is slated to reauthome this '. The report also called f~t greater dress the handling, transyortation, are no guarantees tltat the 1991 tourist year. public education about the risks posed treatment and disposal o medical ,seuon will not bring a recurrence of. As part of the law's,reautborif.aby medical waste to health care workwaste. This ls still true today," the re1 the incidents that closed beaches In tlob, the report said. ConlfflS could set ers, other high-risk groups and the pub-port said.

PAGE 50

1tlJt ~n IUego ltuton SAN DIEGO, CALIF. 0.268,450 CA~ FEB 27 1991 !l!LJ{./lfu.E'S fl. ....... -1 Po edi al .nm.~. c waste E 4)d-9 l~'I~=:~ Hospitals in. the n1 ms have been doctunented for only to hospitalsrand physiciam States will dispose of more than a long time. But the situation but also dental offices. la~-3 million tons of infectious gained national attention three tories, veterinarians and funer waste this year. Most of it will .years ago wh~ used ~er:.al homes. be disposed of properly. But mic needles, vials <>f contami~ ''The only generator of medisome will be mishandled, subnatecl blood and ;tissue, and ca1 waste. that tsexdacfed: from ''.' jecting the public to an unnec-other: medical detiri:s. washed I coverage, uilder tnit new 0talti-. 1 essary health hazard. ashore at beaches in California; fornia 1aw is the military, A new study by the congres.-New Jersey, New York and which is exempt from most :sional Office of Technology As-elsewhere. On the East Coast, state regulations. Consequent-.' sessment recommends the fed-the problem was so bad that ly, the only way to. eniure that eral government develop a several miles of beaches were the. military-c;onfonm to propcomprehensive policy for .. closed temporarily. er standards ;of. waste disposal disposing of medical waste. At Infectious waste also turned is to insist that it be-covered by present, federal rules for hand-up on beaches in San Diego and whatever policy is developed at ling medical waste are issued the federal level. Orange counties. In fact, 40 sep-.on an ad hoc basis by various arate incidents were reported Considering the dangers .agencies. in Southern California. The posed by improper medical The Environmental Protec-exact source of this debris was. waste disposal, one federal tion Agency, the Centers for never determined positively. agency should be given a lead Disease Control in Atlanta and But at least some of the items role in setting down uniform the Occupational Safety and were traced to Navy ships and guidelines and enforcing comHealth Administration share pliance. And the military serother military sources. responsibility for regulating vices should be covered by the medical waste disposal. The In response, the Legislature uniform rules. There should be OT A study suggests that one of passed a measure last year that no repeat of the summer of these three agencies should tightened state regulations. The 1988, with used hypodermics take the lead role in monitoring new law imposes detailed reand vials of contaminated blood the practices of hospitals and strictions on the tramfer, treat-on beaches, before the federal other medical facilities. ment and disposal of wastes. It government is spurred to acMedical waste disposal probalso extends the regulations not tion.

PAGE 51

! f1ila~clpfJia l/nquiur PHILADHPHIA. PA SUN. 1,010,530 PA-4750 FEB 24 1991 BU(L~ Coordinated effort on medical waste disposal urged By Jane E. Allen t O } q () 'f agency to agency, the repon said. York, New Jersey, Connecticut, the medical waste Is going," he said waste tracking cannot be solved by Air emission standards for medical ,,..,,..,,4 '"'' \JI "Applying a more comprehensive Rhode Island and Pueno Rico requirFriday. individual states," said Rep. Robert waste Incinerators, which the Envi-WASHINGTON-Congress enpcted waste management approach to medIng manifests to be kept whenever "Obviously, there are going to be A. Roe (D., N.J.). "One state's effons ronmental Protection Agency Is exleglsi.tton In 1988 to keep mEl!lcal teal wastes, spch as has evolved for labs or medical facilities discarded situations when medical waste ends to track waste from generation to peeled to develop by 1992. refuse from turning up on public municipal solld waste and hazardous Instruments, Infectious wastes and up in an improper location, like a disposal can easily be undermined if Better public and government ac-beaches or In garbage bins, but a waste, could help ensure environtissues, blood products and animal dumpster In a city street," Hagerty a neighboring state fails to Impose cess to information on waste treat government study says there still ls mentally sound and economically wastes. Facilities In the test areas said. "The beauty Is If any Identifysimilar controls." ment technologies, Including alterno comprehensive plan to dispose of feasible waste practices," It said. began specially packaging and label Ing marks are found on the Illegally OTA suggested more recycling and natives to Incineration. the waste properly. Congress Implemented legislation Ing waste, keeping records of Its disposed materials, we can backwaste reduction before burning or Development of workplace prac"Much of the confusion and lnconto document the path of medical movement. track." chemical processing. It also said that tlces for health care and sanitation slstency l890Clated with medical waste from the hospital to the lncln-The Environmental Protection Robert Confer, chief of the Bureau separating wastes at the source helps workers to minimize hazards of banwaste policy persists," the congre&erator after syringes and vials Agency was authorized to Impose of Special Waste Planning for New match specific materials to the most dllng medical wastes. !!l2_Q~~hnol~ washed up on beaches In New York fines of op to S25,000 a day for each Jersey, said the state had levied more efficient treatments. As the demonstration tracking proment said In a repon releatay. and New Jersey In 1987 and 1988. civil vtol1tlon and $50,000 a day for than S250,000 In medical waste penal-It also cited a need for: gram In New Jersey nears Its two----mi( the report said, oonfuston could But the Medical Waste Tracking each crimJnal violation. ties. According to.Confer, about 60 Better definition of medical year run, the state Is developing a beellmlnatealfCongreaswoulddeslgAct was only a Orst stef to control John Hagerty, spokesman for the percent of the regulated medical wastes, based upon the potential statewide strategy based upon an ftate an ~CJ to coordinate and Irresponsible disposal o the wastes New Jersey Department of Environwaste generated In New Jersey ts helllth risks they pose. analysis of who generates the waste, clarify the federal government postand protect public health. mentlll Protection, said the system shipped out of state; the rest Is man More precise Information on the where It comes from and how It 1 tlon on medical wute Issues." The act, which became effective has ~n working In New Jersey. aged In-state. amount and disposal of medical should be managed given new tech-; Disposal standardt vary from state June 22, 1989, established a two-,ear "The bottom line Is that at any "The New Jersey project has wastes, ,ianlc. ularly by sources be-nologles like pulverizing and chemllo state and even from federal demonstration program In New given point, we can track where all shown that the problem of medical sides hospitals. cal disinfection, Confer said. --' -,.--.... ,.

PAGE 52

los lugdts 1tf1ats LOS ANGELES, CALIF. SUN. 1,400,603 FEB 24 1991 BuRREUIS Study Calls for Medical Waste Policy li~q 1 'r By DAVID G. SAVAGE doctors' offices that incorrectly threw their syrinTIMES STAFF w111TER ges and other waste mto the trash. Later, the WASHINGTON-The summer of 1988 was ruined for many beach-goers by reports of hypodermic needles, syringes and other medical wastes w&shing ashore, particularly in New Jersey. But nearly three years later, the nation still lacks a comprehensive or clear policy for regulat ing the disposal of medical waste, according to a congressippal study to be released today. The Office of TechnologY Assessment said the nation's response to the medical waste problem is marked by "confusion and inconsistency." No single federal agency has been put in charge of regulating medical waste, it said, and officials disagree on the most effective means of disposing of the debris generated by hospitals, doctors' offices and medical laboratories. The Environmental Protection Agency estima~E;tt that h!2Wils generate 3 million tons of infe~tious waste each year. Most hospitals properly dispose of their waste, usually by incinerating it. Officials suspect that most of the waste that is not handled properly comes from small facilities, such as medical labs and doctors' and dentists' offices. And because of the AIDS epidemic, the hazard posed by contaminated blood or infected needles has grown immeasurably. The medical debris that washed ashore in New Jersey was believed to have originated at labs or material apparently fell into the' water as ,bjH'ges from the New York area hauled the trlfsh to landfills. "We believe it was mostly the mishandling of ordinary trash," EPA spokeswoman Robin Woods said. The EPA is in the midst of a two-year study in 10 states, mostly in the Northeast, to identify the sites where medical waste is generated and the methods used to dispose of it. In addition, many states have stepped up their own regulation of medical waste since 1988. But the congressional study says a single federal agency should be charged with setting a clear national policy. Currently, the EPA, the federal Centers for Disease Control and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration have some responsibility for regulating or studying the medi cal waste problem. "Any remaining confusion over government positions could be eliminated if Con gress designated .a lead agency to coordinate and clarify the federal government's position on medi cal waste issues," the report says. The report also recommends that medical facili ties look into disposal methods other than inciner ation because of concerns over air pollution. It notes that infectious waste can be steamed or "microwaved" as an alternative to incineration.~ II~ "Tl ,.,, a, N~ c:n : I ~?: u::, t.0 .,. I~ C", !: = ~

PAGE 53

Energy's 'Mountain Building Up' Super Collider, Qeanup Costs Likely to Shortchange Other Programs .:z-/'J--1/ By Thomas W. Lippman ___ ,... __ As Energy Secretary James D. Watkins pointed to the colored charts he used in his fiscal 1992 budget briefing last week, he said he was most worried about the costs depicted by the purple streak and the red wedge. The purple streak represented money to be laid out for construction of the Superconducting Super Collider, an $8.3 billion experimen tal particle accelerator the Energy Department is planning to build near Dallas. On Watkins's chart, the purple section showed the annual cost rising from $243 million in fis cal 1991 to a proposed $534 million in 1992 and still more in subse quent years. The red wedge showed the cost of cleaning up the nuclear and toxic wastes and restoring the environment at the department's huge, 12state nuclear weapons manufacturing com_plex. The costs of the cleanup vary according to which Energy Department activities are included. but by current calcula tions the price tag has risen from $2.3 billion in 1990 to $3.5 billion in the current year to a projected $4.2 billion next year. The costs will ap proach $5 billion a year by 1996. Waste cleanup and construction of the collider are by far the fastest. growing components of the Energy Department's $18.6 billion budget request-"a IDOlllltaiD building up,# Watkins called them. Because they will continue to rile in future years while overall spending remains relatively flat becaUle of the spending cap negotiated in last year's budget agreement, Watkins said, all the other programs, such as energy research, are likely to be short changed. "I'm not going to discuss '93," he said. "I don't know how to handle '93 right now. If we have to trim science and research projects, the nation will be the loser." But even at the fast-rising rate projected by Watkins, spending on waste management and environmental restoration at the weapons complex is lagging what critics say is needed-and what the Energy Department proposed to spend when it released a five-year cleanup plan last summer. By their caiculations, the depart ment is planning to spend as much as $1.1 billion less on environmental cleanup next year than projected in the five-year plan. The proposed budget "shortchanges environmental restoration and waste management by more than $ 1.1 billion less than the ... five-year plan indicated would be needed," said Sen. Timothy E. Wirth (D-Colo.), a leading congresDEPARTMENT OF ENERGY WEAPONS COMPLEX sional critic of the Energy Depart ment's cleanup efforts. "We want to make sure the money is appropriated that's called for in the cleanup plan and that's not what's happening," said Michelle Merola, executive director of Concerned CitiJeas far Nuclear Safety of Sauta Fe, N.M., ooe group in a nationwide chain of organizations mon itoring the weapons plant cleanup. Energy Department officials, including Watkins and cleanup direc tor Leo Duffy, have argued that they are spending money as fast as they can usefully do so. They say theY' are reluctant to commit money to unproven technologies and that a shortage of trained waste manage ment and environmental waste per sonnel makes it difficult to acceler ate the pace of the cleanup. Critics of the Energy Department have been complaining that funds budgeted for environmental cleanup are actually being used to bring some of the troubled bomb factories back into production. Duffy has rejected that charge, say mg that money spent on safe retrieval and disposal of plutonium, americium and other dangerous wastes is essential to cleaning up the plants as well as to operating them. No one disputes the fact that the task of disposing of the nuclear and toXJc wastes at the nuclear plants, cleaning up the soil and water around them and restoring the en vironment represents a huge fiscal time bomb. The Energy Department has said the task will take 30 years and cost many tens of billions of dollars. Stephen I. Schwartz, legislative director of Greenpeace, said last week that "next to the bomb factories' cleanup, the savings and loan bailout will soon look like loose change.# The cleanup involves such tasks as disposing of radioactive and toxic liquids fermenting in huge, corroding tank.s at the Hanford, Wash., reservation and removing plutonium from fuel storage pools: stopping the underground migration of radioactive substances into drinking water supplies near some of the plants; and removing toxic metals such as chromium and mercury from the soil at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. In a report released yesterday, the congressional /)ffice of Tedloolwc Asse~ent md bluntly that the Energy partment may not be the right agency to manage this huge task, partly because of its shortcomings and partly because the public does not trust it. The department's "stated goalto clean up all weapons sites wrthm 30 years-is unfounded because it 1s not based on meaningful estir.iates 0i the work to be done or rhe level Ji cleanup to be accomplished at end of that time," the report said. It said the department lacks s(i entific evidence to support its con tention that the factories present no imminent public health danger, adding that "the technical and mgutu-' tional resources and processes to make and implement sound, publicly acceptable decisions are not m place. Watkins said the OTA report confirms what he has been saying all along: "This is a problem of enormous proportions and will require yet unavailable technology and trained personnel to resolve it." -

PAGE 54

It ATLANTA :JOURNAL ATLAMTA, GA OAILY 1~4,583 infmmSCOClmltde SAN FRANCISCO, CALIF. 0.558,198 CA-691 FEB 11 1991 BuRREU.FS .. HOHOAY FEB 111991 Bv~!!Dr.'-D 2 \ I Nuclear Waste Sites 30 Atomic plant cleanup Face Longer Cleanup is too m b DOE It could eventually cost $200 billion uc ,or w.......:: Cf 11 ,__ ..... legislative study says .......................... .. Fromstaffand~feJs 1 / estimates." 1 ~-=~l~~;.::)'== :it &ha yur 20le," &he report The analysis acknowledged I muell loager Uwa. th 38 )lean In addltiOll to the stag1ertn1 WASHINGTON -A congres-that the Energy Department's projected by the Of,arttealln1ca.l problem, of tbt cleanup sional study says the govern.: weapons plant cleanup effort, 1nent, and some sites may nel'ef and permanent dlsponl of nuclear ment's effort to clean up atomic which is only in its second year be restored suffteieatly to permit WUIII, the Office of TecllDolol)' weapons plants is being ham-has hardly begun. But the study publte lft1!II, aeeordlnl to I eon-AaMmtbC concluded that pubUC pered by a shortage of resources said that even in the early stages greaiodlt 11tud1 to IN! reltlMd tc,. concerns over health and envlJ'ono and la<:k_ ~f public,c~bility, the department appears not t~ I day. = :::::.v yet to be ad and 1t cnticizes the ~ergy Dehave established clear enough The ConatelliObAl ~t of partment for understating the priorities to target those facili-.. Tecbml~~~tcon uded. Tb& Entrgy Department, I& health threat. ties that pose the greatest threat. after u mooii lnv..upt1o11 =.:u:n~c~eth!r::::SZs ':; The report also warned that The report, which had been ~ttotbe ~~4Nlt bU deal witb tht problem,, Moreovtr ~e department ha_s no ~tegy requ~sted by th~ House Armed ~~th=:mt~deandc:'~t:~ "sublt&nuaJ crediblllty and publle to evaluate potential off-Slte huSel'Vlces Co1D1D1ttee, suggested ing up-wutes and eontamtmttl acc:1pt.anca ptoblema continue to man exposure" to the vast that the cleanup efforts not be from more than tOUr decades : hinder progresa." am~ts of radioactive !rl,ghleft: exclusively to the Energy weapons productton. Among tfte clliaf recommenda ly c wastes at the facilities.. Departm~nt, which for 40 years In sum, the EnerQY Depart-. tiona Of t,Se 212-page report, r The Ene_rgy Department said operated its plants under almost me1:1t "bas neither the capability quenecl by the Stnate Armed Ser ~t agreed with many of the findtotal secrecy. or credibility" for the task. said vices Committee, is that regulation mgs and that report con"Despite recent laudable et-Robert. Nlblocle of tile omcei'I of nuclear waste management be firmed the seventy of the cleanforts at changing the DOE cul-oceans and envtronment program taken out of the Enerrzy oepan. up task and the shortage of ademanager. ment. quate tt:Chnology to deal with =li;:~~!~ ~1= ::.,': Unotticial esii~tes of the "Subltitutlng independent reg. some of 1t. . ev..Uual cos\ of the cleanup and ulatory authority for DOE' self. The Bush administration 1S ~!u:e:rt~nder progress," said entdronmenial reetoratlon run to regulation in radioactive waste asking Congress for another $4.4 as mucll u '200 billion. A five-rear management," it said, "could en. billion for the task next fiscal The investigators recomprojection made bJ the Energy Dehance the credibility and quality / year. mended that Congress create an parillleat last year put the ~st of of waSt e management." --.J Overall, the job has been estiindependent commission, or deswork ai $34.'1 billlon thtougJUiScal. mated to cost more than SlS0 bilignate another federal agency l9GI. lion over as long as 30 years. like the Environmental ProtecIn its bud&et sent to Consreu mut the report by Congress's tion Agency, to monitor the last week, tbe administration ask~,;:, of Tecbnolosx AC cleanup effort. It also urged ere-ed tor $4.4 billioa lbt cleanup ac!lWJ! to he published today, conation of citizen advisory boards tiviUa in the coming lilcal year. eluded that the cleanup requireto participate in the cleanup. n. chief problema include ments are so vast and complex permanen, dilposttion of millioWJ it's impossible to say when they Cleanup at the Savannah Rivof gallona of liquid waaie. in tam will be completed and how much er Plant at Aiken, S.C., near the porary storage tanka at HanfOl'd, they will cost. Georgia border is expected to Wash., and Savannah River, s.c .. "Many [ weapons] sites may cost an ~stimated S4.8 billion and the cleanup of plutonium-con never be returned to a condition over. the next six years, Energy taminated 90tl at the RockY Flaw. D artm f.,, a1s laboratory outside l>tnver. suitable for unrestricted public ep ent o uCl say. access," said the OTA investigaBut environmental groups intors. They added that the 30-year sist the site is more seriously target for completing the cleancontaminated than government up "is not based on meaningful officials say~ They 11ao Include uramum pol,, lutlon at Fernald, OhiO, alld dan gerou, wanea dumped ln tile ground at the Idaho National Engi neerin& Laboratory and tbe Oak Rldlf National Laboratory in Ten,. neaee. "In many lnaunc:e1, ceru.tn waste and contammat1on now ''t"O~OT"t "lt f'\("\"J;" C';+~c ,,.;,11"'\1111'\ ... "I.

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_j () l'\j\..X.I I POST ~TANDARD SVRACUSI::, NV OAILV 82,915 HONDAV FEB ll 1991 BV(lt!M, QH Oeanup of Nuclear Waste Assailed ~~?'f S d S 00:c' lu sum. the Department of also include uranium pollution at tions of the 212-page report, tu Y ays ~ Energy "has neither the capability Fernald, Ohio, and dangerous requested by the Senate Armed or-credibility'' for the task, said wastes dumped in the ground at the, Services Committee, is that regulaLacks Capability Robert W. Niblock. OTA's oceans Idaho National Engineering tion and oversight of nuclear waste and environment program man-Laboratory and the Oak Ridge management Ile taken out of the ager. National Laboratory in Tennessee. Department of Energy. Los~ Times Unofficial estimates of the even-"In many instances, certain WASHINGTON The cleanup tual cost of the cleanup and environwaste and contamination now pres of massive radioactive pollution at mental restoration run to as much ent at DOE sites will probably the United States' nuclear weapons as $200 billion. A five-year re~ there considerably beyond laboratories may take much longer projection made by the Department the year 2019," the report said. than the 30 years projected by the of Energy .last year put the cost of In addition to the staggering Department of Energy ~nd some work at $34. 7 billion through fiscal technical problems of the cleanup sites may never be restored suffi1996. and permanent disposal of nuclear ciently to permit public access, In its budget sent to Congress wastes, the OT A concluded that according to a congressional study last week, the administration asked public concerns over health and to be released today. for $4.4 billion for cleanup activities environmental impacts have yet to The ConRrffSional Office of in the coming fiscal year. be adequately addressed. The 1:echnololll_~t concluded The chief problems include perDepartment of Energy, it said, still afteran 18-month investigation manent disposition of millions of lacks the necessary expertise and that the Department of Energy is gallons of liquid wastes in tem-the organization to deal with the yet to reach a realistic assessment porary storage tanks at Hanford, problems. Moreover, "substantial of the mapitude and cost of. cleanWash., and Savannah River, S.C., credibility and public acceptance ing up wastes ancfcontamination andtheclean11pofplutoniwn-contaproblems continue to hinder from more than four decades of minated soil. at the Rocky Flats progress." weapons production. laboratory outside Denver. They Among the chief recommendaSG1v~ 121 OAYlOH DAILY MCMS OAVTON, OH OAlLV 188,728 l'll.lHOAV FEB 111991 BvRRELU"S RP "Substituting independent regu latory authority for DOE's self-regulation in radioactive waste man agement,: it said, "could enhance the credibility and quality of waste management." It suggested that Congress consider establishing a new, independent national commission for the assignment, or possibly vest responsibility in the Nuclear Regu latory Commission or the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board. The NRC currently has responsibil ity for civilian nuclear power regu lation and the safety board monitors some activities at Department ot Energy weapons laboratories., Waste cleanup called beyond Energy's ability _...,.. .... WAIIHINGJOKBURE'AU wASdJ-i-61 i The u.s. En-erg Department Jacka the tech nologyneeded to clean up toxic and radioactive co11tarntnation at it.a. nuclear weapons !acilities na tionwide, according to congressional investigators. LlWe actual cleanup has begun at the 14 sites acrosa the country Including MJamlsburg's Mound Plant which make up the department's nuclear weapons complex, according to aaudl.released today by the Office of Technology Assessment. Efforts are al8o being stymied by a lack of quallfled personnel and Inadequate attempt.a at assessing the health risk to the public. As a result, the Energy Depart ment's goal of ftniahfng all cleanup within 30 years is unfounded, the study said. Cleanup will begin at Mound, however, in 1994 or 1995 even In a worst-case scenario, according to Mound's environmental health and safety manager Dick Neff. "We're well within.that 30-year window," he said "We're really small potatoes for the Department of Energy," Neff said "We don't tend to have prob lems as signtftcant aa some of the sites." Contamination has been con lmned in ground water and sur face water in and around Mound, as well as in the sediment at the plant, according to the report. Neff said 125 sites have been identifted at the plant where radioactive or hazardous mater: might have been released. Th have been grouped into ei units. Work plana for cleanui: three of the units have alre been submitted for approval regulators, Neff said. "Our current estimate to be cleanup is in '94 or '95," he s. "That's If all 125 sites tum out need cleanup. When you coll data, your conclusion may be t the risk from a certain numbe sites ts not grellt enough to sp, the taxpayers' money."

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-~~e, cost~ pro.fee~~ iitedfor: nucleat!cleanup job : : /l tJl1~ ,.. ~-,. ,..~ (;A :11 C. ---------Houston ChrOnickt NeWe'Ssvtces ,. 'ln.many instances, -~ WASHINGTON Cleaning up the certain Waste and ,. massive radioactive pollution at the nation's nuclear. weapon. labor.ato: contam1nation .. now. nes may ta1tt: much tonor than the '. present at DOE sites 30 years proJected by the Depart. : ment of Energy, according to a WIii probably : =~-study ta-be releasa remain _there:r Some sites may'nnefila restored considerably beyond : sufficiently to-permit public access, the year 2019 the study says. The ConmssiQnal Office of Tech-.. -GllllflHailOllal noloa Assessment concluded alter Can.,.aalonal ....._ an Ui=montb investigation. that the Department or Enera:llii. yet to -reach a realistic assessment of the tional Laboratory in Tennessee. ''-' magnitude and cost of cleaning up "ID many instances, certain wasre contamination ftom more than foar anct contamination now present at decades of weapon production. .. DOE.sites ... will probablt remailr-lD sum, the Department.of Enero there considerably beyond the year "has neither the capability or credi 2019l' the report said. .. bility" for the task. said Robert W. ID addition to the staggeriq tedNiblock, ~s oceans and eitvfroa-:. nlcal' problems of the cleanup and ment prolfBID manager. permanent disposal of-nuclear The Energy Department, respond,. wutes, the OTA concluded that puts;. ing to the report, said it agreed with. lie concerns over health and~ many of the findings and said tbe mental effects have yet tc,: t. act. report confirmed the enormity of tbe. quately addressed. The Departmeift cleanup task and tbe shortage ot ot Energy, it said, still lacb tlM adequate teclmology to deal witb. necessary upertise and the orgam,. some of it. zation to deal witb the probleml. "The OTA report adds independerlti, Moreover, "substantial credibili~ confirmation of the fact that this is a and public acceptance probleJ9:l problem of enomwua.proportioa ailc17. continue to binder progress." .:. will require yet unavailable teclmolAmong the chief recommendll:. ogia and trainect perso11D9' to. ;.:' tioas of the -page report, solve it,!' Aid. .. l:neru -~ qo~ bf. tile Senate' .Armed Sc : James Watkins.in a staterpeat. vices Committee, is that regulaticiii : Uneffldal estimates. of -t.11a:...a= and dverstglit of'nucl~ waste mar'~ tua1 coatof.the-.daanu,iland.eiimonn; ag~t, be tak~_ aw!y frym tr, meutal.l"eSp,rltiQDn,n.to:.'8~....-Department of &iergy.. -$200 billion. A five-year,,pnjeetiall,,, The. report .suggested that eoJi: made bJ. the.J)e~t qf.~ gress consider 8$tablishing an indff lastyearput-thecostof.workat-7\'. pendent national commission, billionthrougb fiscal.199L. ..... ... possibly. gjy.e th~ responsjbility In its budget sent to. COlllfl!SI Jui;.-, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission' week, the administratioaasked for-. or the Defense Nuclear Faciliti.P' $U billion for cleanup activities ia;. Safety Board. -.-: the coming fiscal year. Although the report was critical 9t The chief: problems include: perthe Department of Energy's proi..'. manent disposal of millions of gal-;.. ress so far, it noted that DOE 11& Ions of liquid wastes in temporarymade "laudable efforts" at brinM storage tanks at Hanford,. Wah., and about "cultural" changes in the labA the Savannah River Plant. ill South... ratory complex. .:.: Caro~ the cl~anup oflJilltoniumBut Tara O'Toole, a senior OTA. contaminated Sf?d at the R~ky Flats .. analyst, said there continues to t>,.'. labo~tory outside Denver; urani~ concern that far too little informa,. pollution at Fernald, Obio;-and-dati tion is being made available aboui gema.wuteadu11;1pecUn~ wh~t.contaminationexists at tlJI! at the Idaho National, EngiJ1eerind vanous sites and its possible efl~ Laboratory and the Oak Ridge .N~. on health. __ ,n ,_.... ............ 'it HOUSTON CHRONICLE HOUSTON, TEXAS D.413,518 1X-281 ~~)Ji\ FEB 11 1991 BuRRELl.E'S

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RADIO CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM RADIO CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD LIVINGSTON NEW JERSEY OC039 ,2Ofl 992-6600 ,BOO/ 631' '60 Februarv l l. l lJl) l 8:00-9:30 P\1 :--IPR .All Things CLlnsiderc>d Corey flintolf. ne\\ ,.;a,tcT ACCOUNT NUMBER Nuclear weapt,ns pl.,nr, .,-1,," the c',,untry ,1re he.wily contJmin:11<:d \\ irh r,,\i.: wastes. and J ne,, c'c'l1~rc,,i,n,d r,p,,rr ,!aims the go,ernment i, ,rill n,,r fuUy prcpart:>1 to .. ~k.'.!1 ;~ ~:1. !)l<_', \lkh:!-:d Sko!er h3~-t~;Cr'=-The nuclear \\ eapl1n, ,,,mpk.\ j, .1,1 en, iron mental mess. The go,ernment :1gc>nc, responsible for it. the Department ,,f Energy. says it may take up to one hundred fifty hllion dt1ll.ir, .111.I rhirt~ years to clean up all the bl1mb-m,1k1ng plants. But that c,,uld L,1: ,111 un,kr,t.1tc>mc>nt. according to today, rc1wrr tr,,111 the Cqngressi0nal Oftic<' ,,t T c,hn,,lc'\-"' Assessment. The report ,1rguc>, rhar the waste problem is still ,,, 1,,,,,rl> ,tudicd and the cleanup tec:hniques ,c, limited that the gO\crnment c>,timat<' i, 11c, nwrc> than a guess. The congressional ,tudy .11'l, ".1rn, that c,en after cleanup some sire, m,1~ never be s,1fe for the public ,tnd ,riti,izcs the Energy Department for m,r studying seriously cm1ugh ,, hcthcr the' contaminated weapons sites might burr people living near them. The Encr,,.y Department ,1dmits it is still ,truggling to get a handle on the .:le:inup ,,1.111,. plans that will cost o,er tour biU1t1n dollars next year alt,ne. Thi, j, \ I ichael Skoler in Washington. 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD UVNGSTON NEW cERSEY 07039 992-0600 8001 631-1160 February 10. I 1)9 1 9:00-9:05 PM .\H CBS News Nick Young reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER A congressional report ~.iys the federal go\'ernmenrs attempts to dean up nuclear weapons plant~ are suffc'ring from two major drawbacks. Peter Johnson: They h.i,e nut be<'n able to. to bring the correct resources together. and they are Jbo suffering lrom an inabilir, to convince the general public and the c:ommunities in the. in the ar~as around the weapons plants that they'\'e done the c-rediblc investigations that need to be done. Young: Peter Johnson of the Offic> of T c'chnology Assessment. The Enen .. Department says it agrees with many of the report's findini?s. In a sratemenr. Secretary James W,:tkins said the report underscores the scope of the deanu and the shortage ot adequ,He technolo!e'Y to cope with it.

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WINSTON-SALEM JOURNAL WINSTON-SALEM, NC OAIL.'l' 92,8.49 MONOA't' FEB 18 1991 191 BuRl'lEU.E'S sv rNUCUAR CLUNUP /l. V "=~~---..... ~, ~ : -' I ,~ -A Classic Horror Story E ,_,~t"\ '{ After decades of lying about the envilonger and, even then, the possibility of ronmental and health hazards posed by returning the sites "to a condition suit nuclearweapons plants, the governable for unrestricted public access" is ment in the last several years has finally doubtful. come clean-so to speak. From Sawn-C 'nle Energy Department has done nah River in South C&rolina-to Fernald, little so-far to get on with the promi8ed Ohio, ~d from Rocky Flats, Colo., to cleanup. It has not even identified the He.Q:ford, Wash., the bomb factories most dang~ sites and given them polluted America. priority. But coining clean is a far cry from C Part of the reason for the delaJ_Js cleaning up the the troubling fac mess left behind. ------------that the departThe Energy De-ment "lacks the partment has been The problem is so big and necessary penon-:,~ur;;f ~~gt:::~ so bad that no one knows ::e~ tnfrastruc-0~e:~:rui; how much danger the plants ho~~ i;::!:! congress' respectpose, how to clean them up, are spent, t may ed Office of Techh I 'II k h be imposmble with_ nolo'ii Assess-OW Ong It WI ta e Or OW our current techment putes the much it will cost. nology to remove rosyscenarios. ____________ contaminants According to from ground water this evaluation, and deeply buried the problenris so big and so bad that no soils.'' one knows how much danger the plants These are sobering conclusions that pose, how to clean them up, how long it ought to prompt action on the cleanup will take or how much it will cost. fro~t and hesitancy about creating The report reads like one of those more contaminated sites, yet neither is classic horror movies of the early '50s the case. The administration is taking a about the unpredictable effects of unbusiness-as-usual approach to cleanup locking the secrets of the atom. requesting just $4.4 billion for the C So far, there is no strategy in place task, about a week's worth of Persian to measure how much exposure to Gulf spending. dead]y radiation the populations surAnd, speaking of horror-show seerounding plants have endured. narios, the administration plans to proa Cleanup may not even be possible mote commercial nuclear-power plants with present technology. aggressively and open more nucleara The Department of Energy claims weapons sites even though the ef that it might cost $150 billion and take fect.s on health are unknown, a safe way 30 years to clean up the plants ar.e "not to dispose of waste is still unavailable based on meaningful estimates." The and a method for cleaning up existing cost could be far higher and time frame contamination has yet to be found. I

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,... a;: er A20 __ ~-___ -vu Ill a ... --WP-.,... a THE NEW YORK TIMES NATIONAL MONDAY, FEBRUARY 11, 1991 di SQ Report Criticizes Cleanup at Atomic Arms Plants year, has hardly begun. But u said that even m the early stages the depart ment appears nol 10 have es1ablished clear enough pnorities lo lake aim al the mstallalions lha1 pose the greatest threat. mtsston, or designate another agency, like the Env1ronmenlal Prolecuon Agency, lO monitor the cleanup. II also urged creallon ol Ctllzen advisory boards to partic1pale tn the cfforl. data. Among the report's other main con cluswns were these: WASHINGTON, ~eh Ill -A Co11 gress1011al study !:mys lhc t;overument 's effort lo clean up alouw .. weapons plants JS bcmg hampered by a shorlagc of resources and a lack of public cred1lul11y, and 11 cnt1ci,es the l:.nergy Department for understating 1he health threat posed by the plants. The report, prepared by the Olflcc ul Ti!drnologl(:al Assessment and to be hiade public on Monday, also warned lhal the department has nu strat(gy :')u evaluate putenual oll-sue human C)(posure" to the vast J.mounts u( rM.d1oac11ve and highly toxic wa:-.tcs at Jhc plants. The Energy DcpJrtmcnl. re~o11d1ng lO lilt I l'j)tll I J.i:,I Wl ck, ~.HJ II agreed with m.1ny or ttw l111dmgs and said the rcpo1 t conl1r111t.J 1he ~evenly of lhc cleanup ta:-.k anti the shonagc of te(hnulogy lo lieal wllh some uf ll nu. repo1 l ,u..hb mdt~pt>rn..lent ronhrmauon uj lht fall 1ha1 tlu~ 1s a problem or Pnurmou~ propunum and will re4u1n~ ye1 unavuilJ.hle ll'l hnulog1es and tramed ptrsonntI to re:..ulve 11," saul Energy Set n:tary Jd111e:.. 0. Walkms Ill a ::.t.Jtement Whilt ltuust Seek~ More Money I tu1 q)t)n conw~ ,,~ 1tw Uu::.h Adrnm,~lr,,uon 1s ..i~kmg Congress for an uthe1 $-j -i h1llwn for tht' deanl1p for 1he next fiscal year. Over all, the J0b has been estimated to cost more than $150 b1lhnn over as long as 30 years. But the report concluded that the cleanup requirements are so vast and complex that ii is impossible to say when they will be completed and how much they will cost. "Many sites may never be returned to a cond1uon suuable !or unrestncted publtc access," said the report, addmg that the 30-year target for completing the cleanup "ts not based on meanmgf ul esumates." The rerun acknowledged that the Energy Department's weapons plan1 deanup, which 1s only m us second Wider Effort Is Suggested The report, which had been requested by the Sena1e Armed Services Commillee, suggesled that the cleanup not be left exclusively lo the Energy Departmenl, which for 40 years operated the planls under almost tolal se crecy. "Desplle recent laudable efforts at changing lhe D.O.E. culture, subs1an lial credtbilily and public acceplance problems continue lo hmder progress," the report sa!d, The mvesltgators recommended that Congress creale an independent com"A key queslton is whether the money is bemg utiltzed in the right way and whether it's directed toward the most senous problems," said Peter Johnson, lhe Offtce of Technology Assessment's projecl manager for the re port. The report said that too Jillie mformation was available aboul the specific wastes involved and what health effects the contamination bas on people Uving near weapons plants. The Energy Department's view that there is no imminenl health threat "ts largely unsubstantiated," Mr. Johnson said, because of a shortage of health qThal the Energy Qepartmeqt "lacks the necessary personnel and inlrastructure" needed to set cleanup; priorities. -qThal desplle the spending of b1lliens of dollars "ii may be tml)Olisible will!' current technology to remove contaipi,; nants from ground water and deepllf, buried soils near many of the jns1aH1" lions. .. qThat there is a need for broaaeC: pubhc mvolvement in ldentilyilJB' health risks and selling prlorjtie.s I~ dealing with the risks. : "ll is unlikely that the cleanup as ii 1+ bemg conducted now will achieve tl;i,I credibihty ol thc public," Mr. Jol\n~ said last week. I The only air/in that rwnzwm:r : 717? a

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l3bila~dpbia :Unquirtr PHILADELPHIA, PA. PA-4lS D. 500,136 FEB 11 1991 BU!Jt?ELLFS '---------. '~J~~t}~ f loo~[,. ~preq~!~~~u P.,~ st!!?InIC !!:~~roR~.~~~J.'.: WASHINGTON -A congressional study says the government's cleanup of atomic weapons plants is hampered by a shortage of resources and II lack of public credibility, and may take much longer than the 30 years projected by the Department of Energy. The report also said that the department had no strategy "to evaluate potential off-site human exposure" to the vast amounts of radioactive and highly toxic wastes at the raclli ties. The congressional Office of TechnoloiY Assessment concluded after an 18-month in vestigation that the Energy Department had yet to reaUstically assess the magnitude and cost of cleaning up wastes and contamina tion from more than four decades of weapons production. In sum, the department "has neither the capability or credibility" for the cleanup task, said Robert W. Niblock, OTA's oceans and environment program manager. ate Armed Services Committee, recommends Unofficial estimates of the eventual cost of ble to say when they would be completed a9~ ., that regulation and oversight of nuclear the cleanup and environmental restoration h~.w much they would cost. : ... :~ waste ma,nagement be taken out of the de-run to as much as s2oo billion. A five-year Many fweapo~sl site~ may never be ,e-.: partment s hands. projection made by the Department of Enturned to a condltlon sultable for unrestr{et-- It suggested that Congress consider estabergy last year put the cost of work at $34.7 ed public access," said the OTA lnvestigat
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FEB 12 1991 Bu,._~~ Nucle ______ ....... aste ideas The Co~;le~~fun fffiWJ\l~! Technology Assessment has made two recommendations that merit adoption on how to proceed with cleanup of federal nuclear installatiops such as Hanford. An OTA study of the Department of Energy's efforts to organize itself into an enyironmental cleanup agency pamts a bleak picture that suggests little likelihood of success if the DOI<: is left to muddle through alone. Two years into the cleanup program, the agency still lacks a credible strategy for stabilizing, storing, and cleaning up the wastes, as the stalled Hanford cleanup clearly demonstrates. So the OTA says that the cleanup should be supervised by someone other than the Energy Department, perhaps the Environmental Protection Agency, or an independent body created to move the cleanup into high gear. Another worthy suggestion by the ~TA is that citizen advisory bodies be created td participate in the cleanup. The DOE's first attempt at bringing the puulic formally into the dialogue and decision-making on Hanford cleanup with a now-disbanded blue ribbon panel established by former Hanford manager Mike Lawrence generally was successful. If residents of this state are to have any hope that their grandchildren will live with a benign Hanford, they can't assume that their governor or Legislature will exert the necessary hardnosed pressure on federal nuclear bureaucrats. It's time to get earnest citizen involvement back into the nuclear cleanup game to help level a playing field that tilts steeply downward from the Potomac to the Columbia. AKRON, OHIO 0. 152,929 ;~ FEB 19 1991 Bu!L~ Weapons plants Dawdling over waste cleanup ~? 'l, i Fru, \'.'.. IN ANOTHER tlme, tlie scandalous plex and could take as long as 30 condition of the nation's atomic weapyears. For instance, at the Fernald ons plants would have made regular plant, near Cincinnati; the depart-appearances on the front pages of ment has yet to come up with a cleannewspapers and in the early minutes up plan, althoqgh the original dead-of the evening news. But this is the line passed last fall. era of the savings and loan fiasco, the In fact, the U.S. Environmental gulf war and Mikhail Gorbachev. Protection Agency has imposed a fine Even a $200 billion mess can escape of almost $300,000 on the department attention. for its tardiness at Fernald and other And that's too bad because, as the sites. A fine, of course, would amount Office of Technolof't Assessment reto little more than moving federal ported last week, te cleanup ot the money from one agency to another. plants is going poorly. The OTA, Still, it's encouraging to see the EPA which is the investigative arm of Con-poking a department that bas long gress, sharply criticized the Departconsidered itself above close scrutiny. ment of Energy, arguing that it Perhaps the most disturbing thing hadn't even established which plants about the OTA report was the conclu-pose the greatest threat and should sion that not only is it difficult to be cleaned up first. estimate the cost and timing of the For 40 years, the plants operated cleanup, the Energy Department in almost total secrecy, manufactur, doesn't have the technology to do the ing radioactive materials for nuclear job, which includes removing toxic weapons fuels. Years of neglect, how-and radioactive waste from ground ever, left them in such a deteriorated water and deeply buried soils. condition that by the late 1980s they Is it any wonder the OTA also conceased to function. eluded the department lacks credibilWhat remains is a monumental enity with the public, especially in Fer. vironmental problem and potential nald and other affected communities? health risks for those who worked in The Bush administration has prothe plants, as well as those who simposed another ,$4.4 billion for the ply lived in surrounding communities. cleanup in its new budget. Money, Even the Energy Department adhowever, won't buy c~billty. Only nuts it hasn't made much progress on a commitment to setting priorities a cleanup that is both vast and comand taking aggressive action willJ

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to II whisper. Fishermen 1 full loads of salmon last year. ,people who flayed Alyeska 1e Service Co. for its slow !sponse two years ago warmpliment the company's new -;cotts: reco\"ery process, after the f aJtnost 11 million gallons of s cost Exxon Corp. more than :lion in cleanup and compen More than 36,000 water it least 1.016 sea otters and '1ald eagles died along with other animals. ,versation ha!\ moved to topics 1s the proposed road to Cor1 vibrant fishing village 00 the or Ooris and Tom Lopez's ~by daughter from Romania. iust broke my heart" to see t,appened to the Persian Gulf, lichelle' Hahn O'Leary. a Cor isherman, but "Prince William 1 is doing much better." iness was so brisk at Sea Seafoods, a fish processing iny directly across from the lil tanker terminal here, that Ray Cesarini could have used big difference," Cesarini said. Relieved of worries about fishing restrictions and oil cleanup, two of the most outspoken fisherman critics of Exxon have turned their at tention to a sudden family addition. Doris Lopez, a visible presence at many post-spill news conferences two years ago, flew to Romania in November and returned with twomonth-old Maritsa, a dark-eyed, dark-haired playmate for the family's two small sons. Her husband, Tom, had not been happy about her six-week absence, but when he saw the result he pronounced the trip, with a wry smile, "Doris's mission from God." In Cordova, Michelle O'Leary joined her husband, Michael, on the local ski slope this winter. Last year, she ruined a knee carrying heavy baggage through airports on trips to lobby about spill recovery and had to stay off her feet. The O'Learys also joined the renewed debate about whether to connect their little waterside town, accessible only by foot, boat or airplane, to a highway. New Gov. Wal-reporters "to discuss how the spill has affected them. All have been involved, as have most people on the sound, in private and government claims and lawsuits against Exxon and Alyeska, although many claims have been settled and the future of the suits is difficult to predict. O'Leary said salmon fishing and herring roe harvest for her and her husband returned to normal last year. The only major annoyance was sharing the roe harvest waters with herring fishermen, which O'Leary said is not likely to happen this year. Last summer, the Lopezes en countered no sigriificant barriers to fishing, although waters near some oily beaches were off-limits. Tom Lopez said thet grossed $250,000, before taxes and salaries to his four crew members. That was a drop from their $428,000 gross in 1989 when they hired out one boat for cleanup work, but crew expenses were lower this year and the -Lopezes were delighted to be free of Exxon's dirty work. Fisherman Westin Fields on contaminated beach after 1989 Exxon Valdl'z 11pill. "I did nothing but fish last year," Tom Lopez said. "It was great. I got a lot of fish, just not as much money for them." Lopez and Cesarini both praised Alyeska's new $50-million-a-year Ship Escort Response Vessel System (SERVS), even if the dozens of new SERVS employees have put further pressure on the tight Valdez housing market. Michael Williams, the Alyeska vice president of environment and contingencies, said one of the system's four 210-foot oil recovery ships and one of its four tugs escort every loaded oil tanker out of the sound, a hedge against spills and a check on dangerous maneuvers such as the sharp turn that resulted in the Exxon Valdez running agro1;md and leal
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3 c;F f ) ~, ,, 1 1 9 '.'. ~ugfQ.r_-s._tl'(je..U~5.~,-, a-q1.qa.lV\St a.\a!ooO 1.t.lii"I 11\./ Sy GEORGE LOBE~Z \J c.,l iU1SHINGTON (\ir'll -Forty-01,1, s11n;-t:,r~ 11rgt-d i'r11~1ci1ir.\ :i\usr. H"1r'!>dav \Cl co1111it to ruts ir, greer,ho1:~r' g;,ses, citi;,g a ne,,; congressional studv that found-the United States could reduce heat-trapping carbo~ dioxide eissions by J5 percent within 25 years. As delegates to a United Nations conference met in a Virginia suburb to discuss possible resp~nses to the global warming threat, the senators introduced a resolution calling on the administration to drop its opposition to polluticn-r~durtion deadlines. The resolution s;,v~ the United States should agree to specific reductions in greenhouse gases by a set date, including action by :ndustrialized nations to cut carbon dioxide, the main pollutant of concern. The re~olution was introduced by Senate Democratic leader George Hitchell of Maine, who delhered i bli"ster-ing attack on the aj~inistration's recently announced 'action ag2nd~ to co~bat global warming. The agenda "is i~ reality an inaction plan, ~itchell said in remarks on the Senate floor. He said the administration's policy stat2ment, released at the U.N. conference Monday, wa~ ~othi~g more than a "glossy brochure an i!iustr~ted ju!tification fer ~cing nothi~g." ln its statement, tne administration said the United States already was taking ?oi:ution redu:tion actions that would result in U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in the year :ooo being equal to or below 1987 : eve! s. Amon; other actions, U.S. offic!als said the nation already was reducing emissions of chlorofluorocarbons under a treaty to protect the o:one layer. CFCs both destroy o:one and trap heat in the at 0os?here. However, environmentalists said t~a~ while the administration was trying to "doubl~ count" CFC redu~tions, its plan would allow U.S. 1c~rbon dioxide uissions to rise 15 ?ercent. In ~ontrast, several European nations already have committed to a :o percent reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2000 or :005. They are pushing at the U.N. ccnference for an international treaty that would establish that goal for all industrialized nations. Supporters of the 2~ ~ercent reducticn ;cal cite a 1990 U.N. study that warned temperature increases of 2 to 10 cegr22s Fahrenheit are possi:ile in the next century due to rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dio~ide and other industrial ?:ll l utants. Those gases act li~e the glass walls of a greenhouse in that they allow sunlight into the atmosphere, ~ut then trap heat raoiating back up from the Earth that oth~rw~se would escape into space. Administration officials have argued t~e 20 percent cut is not warranted ;i~en continuing uncertainties about the agnitude of likely warming and the huge economic costs of cutting carbon dioxide, which is generated by the burning of oi 1, coal and other fossil fuels. However, a report released by the congressio~al Office of Technology Assessment Thursday said the United States conceivably could save money and cut i~s carbon dioxide emiss1~ns bv 2015 by up to :s percent ~e!ow 1987 levels. The OTA, which evaluates technical issues for Congress, said such pollution reduction could be achieved through e~isting energy-efficiency technology; greater use of clean energy scurces such as natural gas and nuclear power; and improed forestry practices tc take adantage of trees natural absorption of carbon d1o~!de through photosynthesis. The report ,a:d that that tough" combination of measures would be 'difficult to achieve (but) major technological breakthrDugns .re not ne!!ded." The OTA said cost est:~ates for its "tough" scenario ranged w!d~ly, fro~ a savi~gs of 520 billion a year to cost of about $ISO bi!!1on. !i:tchell said t~ GH. report r~i.ed the possibility the U.S. e~ono~,y actually could bEn~f1t ~rom reduction of carbon dioxide emissions, largely through i~proved efficiency ano reduced energy costs. But he .aid t~e repcrt also poi~ted out t~e c~st oi doing nothing -a prc1ect1cn ~hat ~.3. ~~rb~n oic.:i~2 e~1ss1ons ~111 ~~Ee ~y ~O ~ercent ~~er :~e next 25 years ~n~er i ~us1ne5s as U$ual~ sc~~i~lo.

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'""."'-, ..,. fft,.:r 1',i I..J capabilities, as well as providing time on a mainframe for completing the d.lta analysis back on the ground. The data analysis was J.lso facilitated by computer programs devel oped by gcoscientists at the Free University of Berlin (West). In addition, the Free Uni versity mJ.de a 'Cessna 207 research plane a,ailable to the collaborators, thus giving them more flying time. The team began testing their new system I.1st fall. In a standard nm, the temperature data obtained in the air are put through the Western mainframe to generate a visual profile of temperature changes. This is then comp.1rcd with video film of the territory sc.11111ed to elimin.1te known he.1t sources, such as hou~es, factories, and so forth. "If a factor shows up on the conventional map, then we know where the heat is coming from," says Nopirakowsk.i. The team also accounts for natural ground variations, such as the presence of water, sand, or clay, and any known geothermal sources that may affect the infrared profiles. Ground crews are then called in to take a: closer look at areas showing any unexplain,ed: temperature increases. 1 The team's first test flights, made over the greater Berlin area last November, gave promising results. The flight team scanned known trash dumps, and, while the video images showed green fields, the infrared profile picked up heat emissions from the buried sites. \Vhen mounted on a plane flying at an altitude of 1000 feet, the scanner's array of 128 sensors can, the researchers found, e,.i.luate a 400-meter-wide strip of land in a single pass, picking up temperature changes as 6mall as 0.1 C. :Sow that the initial stages of the infrared project have proved successful, the collabo rators are hoping for additional funding that will enable them to expand the work. But for the eastern p.i.rtners, time may be running out: The Institute for SpJ.ce Studies, until reunification p,1rt of the East German Acad emy of Sciences, is undergoing a credibility evaluation by an international scientific com mission charged with reunifying German science. So far, Nopirakowsk.i is optimistic. Chances arc good, he says, that the institute will be incorporated into the unified German scien tific community when the commission m,1kes its recommendations in ,\farch. At stake are -l:00 jobs at the sp.1ee institute alone, .rnd the fomre of research projects like the remote sensing coll.1boration-one that is certainly nccdcd gi,en the l.lrge task th,1t the Germans "dl h.1vc in tinding the eastern zone's old dump sites. A..'IDREA CEZEAUX .4.ndrea Cezeaux is a free-lance writer based lll Berlin. H.P.Rt: \RY l9'Jl ')_/ t /1 / Cooling tlie Greenhouse Cheaply As representatives from 130 nations gathered near Washington this week to p!J.n an attack on the greenhouse problem, the U.S. Office ofTechnology .\sscssme11t issued a report that otfrrs just such a plan-actually two pl.ms: J. "moderJ.tc" rnd a "tough"-for the United States. In the moderate s..:enJ.rio, the nation c.rn subst.n tially reduce its own contributions to global warming over the next 25 ycJ.rs while avoiding any net cost-J.nd the country would even reap side bendits such JS J. cleaner environment. Then there's the tough scenario: If the united StJ.tes followed the ambitious example of other nations that have already pledged to reduce c.irbon dioxide emissions, the costs could be considerable, according to the report, tho.1gh not unbearable. In this second scenario, the OTA pn:dicts costs of up to S 150 billion per year, as much :is is spent already to reduce all forms of pollution. So far, the Bu,h :\dministr.irion ha~ refused to n1.1kc: c1c11 .1 mild co111rn1rr11ent to cut back on carbon dioxide just for the s.:ike ofavoiding J gn:cnhouse cff~Lt. It obiccts that the scientific cJ.se for t.i.king such action is not clearly established. But whether the case has been proved or not, OTA's Changing by Degrees: Steps to Reduce Greenhouse Gases finds that carbon dioxide controls are technically feasible .i.nd need not cripple the economy. OTA, an agency of Congress, has released these findings at a key moment, just .i.s the UN-sponsored Intern.itional Negotiating Committee begins deliber.i.tions in Chantilly, Virginia, on an international climate convention. The agreement, sched uled to be ready for signing in June 1992, would include or shortly lead to numeric.ii goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. But many countries arc .i.lready setting their own targets. Germany is planning to reduce emissions 30% below the present level by the year 2005, for example, and the European Community is .1iming at a more modest goal-holding emissions at the current level by the end of the century. These countries are likely to propose similar targets during the negotiations. In contrast, without new legislation, U.S. carbon dioxide emissions will incrc.i.se 50% by 2015, according to the report. If the United States were to pursue the tough emissions control scheme, warns the report, it would have to use most of the techni..:al options available now or likeh to become available early in the next century. The report lists such steps as impro,ing the insulation of buildings, m.i.king motor vehicles .i.nd industri.1I motors more efficient, and increasing the use of nonfossil electricity generating pl.mes. However, even in its tough scenario, OTA is not counting on miracles. ~o technologic.i.l breakthroughs would be required, nuclear pO\n:r would not make J. big comeback, solar-based electricity generation would not be pervasi, e, .i.nd most people would not be driving SO-mile-per-gallon cars. :\.nd OT.-\ did n0t c1cn consider technical options that would necessitate "loss of comfort or con, enien..:c." All told, OTA's tough approach to emission control would yic:ld ,1 20,, t,i 33 ':, reduction in greenhouse gases by 2015. The report is less specific .1bout (o;r,. ".-\ rough estimate of the cost range ... is J. savings of S20 billion [per yc.1r] to a (mt of about $150 billion per year (in 1987 dollars),'' s.1ys the report. If this pill seems too bitter, Congress might prefer OTA's moderate scc:11.1no. In it, cogeneration of heat and electricity would be minor, increases in motor chick efficiencies would be modest, and no nonfossil fuel electric unlines woulci h.11c: ro come on line. Existing nuclear p!J.nts could contribute, however, by incn:J;ing the proportion of time they are producing power from the current 50% to 75'&. C.1rbon dioxide emissions would be held to .1 15% to 22% increase by 2015 .i.s comp.1rcd 111th the 50% increase that would occur without controls. If the goals of this appro.1(h .ue modest, so is the price. OTA concludes th.i.t this significant reining 111 of cnm,,un, would more than pav for itsclt~ .issuming that oil will be S50 per b.un:l : in 19::!7" dollars) by 2015. The technical means .1re there, s.1ys OT:\, but gettmg .-\meric.111s to me thc:m 11 ill bt: a d1.1lknge. The report rct:omnu:nds .1 v.iriety of new regul.1tions .md nurkcr rnc-.:hJ. nisms, ranging from perform.rncc sun,ilrds to tax inccnci,e program,. Thi, .c:,.--nrt ,,11, you ..:ould redu..:c c.1rbon dioxide emi;;ions," savs Rosin.1 Bit:rb.ium. OT.-\ ,r, :c~: director, "but it won't happen without a strong signal tl1.1t thi~ i, n.1tio11.1i ,,.,i,(:" ~oting tl1.1t L'.S. energy consumption froze in thc 1970s when <.>ii bc..:.1111c ,:c:.,r. ,:,c ob,ef\es thJ.t "we ccruinlv t::in do it if there's .1 1,ill." R.!CH,\RD .\. Kc.KR ',: .,...,

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::cr:linNGTON', F,b. 7 (AP}-0Jt : "SUcb emiaion reduct1ona Will be ~-can-sharply reduce dlttk:ult to achieve and coukl be coaa,. ~t~ienti&ta say would con~ ly,'.' said the study, whicb had been reuWQioU1_.,..,.,..oba11.1-111l warmtna. but not wttbout queued by several Congressional com expeme and dramatic mittees, but it added that the reduc1n how Americans uae eMl'IY, tiona would require no major tecbnoirCCl!!IJl* Wional study reported,today. lop:al breakthroughs. report estimated that subatan-The report saicl the CClll waa dUficult ~ttma emisaiona of one of tbe to-estimate. Eneru savtnp would ln...-.;carbon dioxide, could eventually c,_. beeaule of camervadon. aad cog g,,e economy as much u $U50 bll-fuel effldencia. but tbe coat of apptlllmi ~r. about what Americana now anc:es, automobllla and bGulN, would l1IY.1llr compliance with all emuna en. moat lilcely lncreaa -' ~laWL The report saicl predk:tiou Oil bow ~'IM study by the Congreutonal Of-. much it would COit to deal...-&lobal fk:a4l Technology Assesament comes warmin& vary widely. from avtna the a,, delepte1 from 130 natiOna economy money to costtna u much u meetin8 near here to wort toward a $150bllliona.,_..teca&carbcadlmdde wql;lcll,tde treaty Oil global Warm.in& It emtuiml alonabJ'tMyeu-2111. pressure from some mem-Envtronmental&ta luMf......--Cbat bep._o( COnareu to commit the United at the-very IeMt.. lndulb'lal Stai.to specific goala to reduce pses must reduce cartardlmdd-tdldall tha~ ton&ribute to global WatmuJ&, by 2t percent W, ba-. QY llafNof SOmetbina the SWIil Adminiltration n!ftraing thetrend:: toward uamlalf sa~acil:1.!::'!:i~ sdentiat ~-eui-over UM extent, and indeed the exia~ carbon diexide emillDIJ. 'IIIQWd. t'e'. enee, al global warming. Bu& many quire eneray coo t UIM ......... sciea&llt-l believe that giobal tempera-be taken by ~---ol u Jlln!J.::will rise because inel"e'8iJll economy. inctuctma,~ -~ lMreWlf cartJon dioxide and other man-manufacturill&.. t~ and inf.(lf:.sases wUl trap and retain beat en8!'1YlndustrilL A', from. 1he sun In a procea similar to Eneqy Tua Coal ae NeedlMI ~ppens In a greenboua SUdl a ~trend could cause sea levels Tbe energy savtngs moat likely UiJIIL cause severe droulhts anct woul4 have-to-ba braul,bt about stonR& amf.. severely cHsprupt the tbrouah miX&Ure ofy -rgy taxes. btolo&ical systems, fiDancial lncenUves and government ~, -. reawauan. the study canduded. ----.MunbuofGaNllawlVed.. 1be Conpeaional ICUdy did not eo-nr..p11enomeuon bas been att11buted done any specific approach or suggest to'l"IJtmber of..-. lncludinll cbloro-what kinda of enera taxes or incen ffueticarbona anc:1, methane. ht-lives might be preferred. But it sugbc:ift~. primarily from the bum-gested that tougher eneray efficiency 1na-Ol fouil fuels. accounts for more standards would haw to be developed ot."lbe--paee-idenUfled u for commercial buildings as well as for U.. p a ta1 effect.. And homes, appliances, heating and cooling belllH....lian1flcant cuta In systems, windows and other elements .,_ dfi&lldd9, ....... wiB reQUB'e of coutruction....___ .. In the bunmll at foe-- It c;_itec!.tl1'..~ f.9r more energy-ef-1_ lfl--Qil.-c:oal and wood. fleienf transportatiCJn sys"tlma, lnchld f,i~~ IIUdy concluded that cartii:ii Intl steep tncreuee In automobile fuel ; _. ndW:tions of 35 percent are economy standards, more incenUvee r .. lliillll1cwer the next 25 ~rs In the towarct ~ent of maaa transit Uffl._.Sta.tes with tbeitadol)Uon ot and perhaps lWin&tituting the 55-mile-strlapnt energy-saving policies. an-hour speeo limit nationwide.

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THE CC\C11iERCIAL APPEAL r1~EMPHIS, TENN. D. & SAT. 209,205 TN-94 -!,. ,,'<-~~'.I';', / ; i=-:, 1991 fl!{BlfEUFS Gore urges 'tough' steps on warming By James W. Brosnan The Commercial Appeal 1 / Washington Bureau WASHINGTON Sen. Albert Gore Jr. Thursday endorsed "tough" options to control glo bal warming that a new report says could cost up to $150 billion or save $20 billion annually, de pending on future fuel costs. The Office of Te.clul_ology As-~sment report, released by Gore (D-Tenn.) and four other congressmen, came as 41 sena tors rged the Bush administra tion to specify a date by which it would reduce emissions of car bon dioxide and other green house gases. A United Nations conference on global climate change in Chantilly, Va., is considering a treaty to reduce the greenhouse gases believed to cause global warming. President Bush contends that the science is too uncertain to commit to a costly reduction in carbon dioxide emissions. But the OT A report said the reduc tions may be achievable with ex isting technology, and, Gore _said, "in a reasonable economic way." The OTA report offered three s~enarios for reducing emis sions: The "do-nothing" option by which carbon dioxide emissions increase 50 percent by 2015 over 1987 levels. The "moderate" option, which would hold carbon diox ide emissions to a 15 percent in crease through improved ener gy conservation. Th~ ''.tough" option, reduc ing emiss10ns 25 to 35 percent below 1987 levels through an energy tax and government support for electric cars and other fossil fuel alternatives. A ... ;: 'n : I'~ : _.,,\J.; L, 1.,4,.,\.,U ,:_,, BURLINGTON FREE PRESS BURLINGTON, VT DAILY l SUNDAY Sl,820 MONDAY FEB 111991 ll PT i ~Controllin~ CO2 ::::,/ Not a moment too so n, t~e ~ush administration has finally agreed that global arnnng 1s a serious enough threat to merit immediate policy action. The policy shift came at a 130..nation conference on global warming that opened last week, the first of five that will be held to draft an international treaty to control greenhouse gas emissions. Unfortunately, given the widespread international support for emission curbs, Bush's policy changes appear to be more of a public relations ploy than a genuine effort to solve the problem. In fact, with the exception of the United States, nearly every industrialized nation has already committed to limiting greenhouse gas emissions. All 12 nations of the European Economic Commu nity, as well as Japan, New Zealand and Australia, have set goals for reducing emissions. The treaty that conference delegates hope to forge will unite industrialized and developing countries in economic, environmen tal and scientific tactics to curb wanning. Most of the policy changes outlined in the American strategy are changes that have already been agre~d to in other international treaties. And U.S. representatives told the conference the United States would still allow emissions of the chief greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, to increase. That's both irresponsible and unnecessary. The United States emits 21 percent of the world's greenhouse gases. Scientists say the world must reduce emissions of carbon dioxide by 50 to 80 percent to stabilize the atmosphere. If the United States doesn't act responsibly, there's little hope of reach ing any significant level of reduction. In the past, Bush administration officials have said that reducing carbon dioxide emissions would be too difficult _<}'tld too costly. Congress disagreed and asked the non-partisan OJ11~.2f TechnQlpgy Assessment to study the problem. Coincidentally, the OTA report was released last week. Ana lysts concluded that with aggressive policy changes and govern ment incentives, the United States would be able to reduce emissions by up to 35 percent by the year 2025 using existing technology. Analysts said estimates on costs to implement such an aggres sive policy varied widely from saving the economy money to costing as much as $150 billion a year. But the report concluded what the Bush administration needs to understand: Even without the pressures of global warming, the nation needs to begin shifting the U.S. economy away from its fossil-fuel dependence. Jj

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Group says U.S. has means to cut greenhouse gases (_, '")..;>..._ 'i\. 'i FIGHTING GLOBAL WARMING: A return of the greenhouse gas will increase by SO 1992. The talks are being held in Chantilly, to SS-mph speed limits, better fuel percent in that time, the researchers said. Va., a Washington suburb. c d ffi Carbon dioxide is produced by combusOutlining strategies for dealing with economy ior cars an more e cient tion and is the gas scientists say is chiefly regreenhouse gases, OT A said that with a re-lighting and heating are urged. sponsible for trapping heat and causing the turn to SS-mph speed limits, higher fuel By Jett Nesmith ;ournal-Corst1tut1on Wash1~gton Bureau earth to grow gradually warmer. The United economy requirements for new cars, effi States is responsible for about one-fifth of cient lighting and heating, and other meas the global output of the gas. ures it described as economically tough. car-WASHINGTON The United States could sharply reduce emissions of air pollut ants responsible for global warming in the next 2S years with existing technologies, congressional researchers said Thursday. An aggressive package of policies to en courage better insulated buildings, cars with better gasoline mileage, and development of alternative energy supplies would reduce the country's output of carbon dioxide by more than one-third between now and 201S, said the Office of Technology Assessment (OT_.(\). The OTA report, hailed by congressional bon dioxide emissions in the_ Untied States leaders. was released at a time when U.S. would be reduced 3S percent m 2S years. delegates to talks on framing a climate "The U.S. representatives to the interna change treaty were resisting pressure from tional negotiations now under way in Virgin European allies for stiff cutbacks on greenia would be well served if they reviewed this house gases. report and its conclusions," said Sen. Albert Delegates from Germany, the NetherGore Jr. (D-Tenn.). lands and Italy have oeen at the forefront of Sen. John H. Chafee of Rhode Island, efforts to draft a treaty that would require inranking Republican on the Senate Environ dustrial countries to begin cutting back on ment Committee, said the negotiations "rep carbon dioxide emissions. resent a perfect opportunity for the United Ontlie other hand, if nothing is done to change the current trend, annual emissions The United States has called instead for a States to present this new data and join the treaty in which specific targets for reduction rest of the world in an a~reement to reduce/ would not be included until sometime after emissions of carbon dioxide. A 18 WEDNESDAY. JEBRUA_RY 20, 1991 4J)t ~osQington !lost Looking for the Thermostat CAUTIOUSLY but unequivocally, the United States has committed itself to negotiating a worldwide agreement limiting emissions of carbon dioxide. The nature of that limit is still unclear, but it will affect all combustion of fossil fuels. Most of the world's governments have become deeply concerned about the prospect that the Earth will grow steadily warmer as the density of carbon dioxide rises in the atmosphere. More than 100 countries were represented at the recent Chantilly conference that began work on the agreement. If the United States had refused to support it, the whole effort would have collapsed there. But as it turns out, the world is embarked on its first serious effort to get control pf the greenhouse effect. For itself, the United States has pledged to hold its emissions of the greenhouse gases in the year 2000 to the levels of 1987 or lower. That ought not be hard. Michael R. Deland, chairman of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, pointed out that this country's contribu tions of carbon dioxide have been stable over the past 15 years while the economy has grown by more than 50 percent. But no one really knows what it would cost to make substantial reductions. That was one of the reasons the administration until now had shied away from all talk of carbon dioxide limits. Reputable estimates of costs run all the way from very high figures to claims of net benefits pro duced by rising fuel efficiency. And yet, among all the uncertainties there are two things that are clear beyond any reasonable doubt. While it can't be proved that the greenhouse effect has already begun to change the Earth's climate, it will certainly do so if the world continues to pour into its atmosphere the present volume of greenhouse gases-of which carbon dioxide is the most important. Second, there can be very long lags between the causes and the effects of climate change. Ocean temperatures, for example, respond only slowly to changes in air temperature. Congress,'., Office of TechnologY Assessment recently ob served that stab1hzmg the present output of greenhouse gases wouldn't go nearly far enough to stabilize the climate. That would require huge cuts, perhaps as much as 80 percent, in the current emissions of the industrial countries. By finally deciding to support a world agree ment, the Bush administration has taken a pru dent and necessary first step to protect the climate. A great deal now depends on the next decision-whether and how much to cut the present production of the greenhouse gases. -----ATLANTA C~Hi7iTUTiCN ,HLANiA, ~A DAILY :]2,6~2 FRICAY FEB a 1391 .8UB/f.EU.'S ---..,...----JE

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VJJ' t,r\J.,u,_, .. ,.~,.. SANJOSE. CALIFORNIA 0.277,0IO C,Wtt JAN 22 1991 BumuLt.FS Washington News lnbrlef 3rd World use of energy cuts o~gains A ra .. in enera de-mand in developin1 countries tbrlatall to undarm1ne their frag-ile ecoaomtaa and neaat:-~ matal pa 1D the lnd ...... MU&MU natiom, accord1na to. an-ana}yu a.ti! ~al ofllciJ,t. Tee-iiiLTllreport _!.!W the dilemma fac-ln& manyof tbe worlcl'I pooNlt and mo1t deuely populated nattom: Tbe man their people' pin ac:c:lllt to mo..~= Diad farm equipment th have to ==~ :ta a: impcnof. _:;.a oil and the veater the rtllC dep'adatlOlt But ~rovtdlnl thon servtcea meana buylna oil and buildlnl Janta in countrtea alreadf g:r_:s by debt, dlmm1n1 Tffll'I and lnundatmc farmland ,~ Jlydroelectrlc facillU. and burn1nl mON coat: Unreatrained UM ol .COAi. l1oal with .lncreued urban bul fletta and tbl. burnmc of wood tor fuel in the pc>On!lt countrieli contrtbutel to worldwide of ,.._ believed to be respomib for ,iobal wannlq. -THE COM?vffiRCIAL APPEAL MEMPHIS, TENN. D. & SAT. 209,205 JAN 4 1991 il!tt.fsEUFS (,-.~~'.'!'.':'.'."'~-~-=:".'.:'."'~:--....... ......., j .. ...--~.;~---/\ ~t}Jy are your federal tax dollars gJng? In a continuing series, The Commercial Appeal is highlighting a different federal agency, showing its appropriation for Fis cal Year 1990, for Fiscal Year 1991 and the percentage increase or de crease in its budget. Agency; Office of Technolo~ information gat -ering arm of Congress) Fiscal 1990 budget $18.3 million Fiscal 1991 budget $19.S million Increase: 6.S percent

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t I I I THE WASHINGTON POST I Rising Third World Energy Demand Imperils. Economies, Environment Report Outlines Dilemma of Poorest, Most Crowded Nations By Thomas W. Lippman Wlllliqtaa Pait Stiff Writer A rapid increase in energy demand in developing countries threatens to undermine their fragile economies and negate environmental gains in the industrialized nations, according to a new analysis by the congressional Office of Technology Assess ment. The report dramatizes the dilemma facing many of the world's poorest and most densely populated nations: the more their people gain access to motor vehicles, mechanized farm equipment and modem appliances, the cerned Scientists. "You can't ask these countries to forgo devel opment, so you have to make it possible for them to develop in a more environmentally friendly way .... You don't want them to follow the fossil fuel model." "Concern about this was deader than dead when we were formed in 1984," said Deborah Blevis, executive director of .the Washington-based lntemational Institute for Energy Conserva tion. "All the ar~ts we have been making since '84 are com.mg out now." Blevis said most pr~ more they have to spend on powThe ,l baJ er plants and._imported~d the. '. g,o areater the rilk of mVJl'OQIDeDtal ,,1 bat degradation. warming ue e '"Energy services are essential has b fi -for economic growth (and] im-egun to 'OCUS proved living -standards." said the ftport, part of a. study of Third attention on '. World energy ''))l'Oblems nd ,,questt:
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THE ENERGY DAILY Wednesday, January 23, 1991 3 :..:::=-:::..:.::=.:..=..::--=.:..::=::..:.. ___ ..:.:., __;~---------------------Developing Countries' Global Energy Use To Triple By 2010 Third World Energy Costs To Soar Developing countries now account for 30 percent of global energy use, and energy consump tion is projected to triple in the next 30 years, according to a study released last week by the Office of Technology Assess ment, the non-partisan technical arm of Congress. Meeting that additional demand will mean higher bills for imported oil, in creased debt from building new power plants, and even more en vironmental damage in developing countries, OT A predicted. Explosive population growth and rising living standards are the primary reasons for thtt~ in creased energy appetite, OT A wrote. More than 90 percent of world population growth is taking place in lesser-developed countries, where population will jump from the current 4 billion to nearly 7 billion in 2025, said the study, Energy In Developing Countries. Rising standards of living will mean higher farming productivity, more manufacturing, building public works infra structures, more urbanization and increased transportation. Commercial energy consumption typically rises faster than eco nomic growth once the de velopment process is underway, OTA said. But LDCs also face major energy supply constraints. In vestments in the commercial energy sector already account for more than 30 percent of public investment budgets, with electric utilities accounting for ''the lion's share" of the investment, OTA wrote. The World Bank estimates that providing adequate supplies of electricity will require a doubling of annual in vestments, to $125 billion per year. "This figure represents vir tually the entire annual increase in the combined gross national product of the developing coun tries," OT A pointed out. In the past, about SO percent of energy supply investments were supplied by foreign sources, but high debt levels will make it difficult to in crease borrowing from abroad, OTA said. In most countries of the de veloping world, the electricity sector is government-owned. But government ownership can hurt least-cost procurement and in vestment decisions, keep man agement salaries to low civil service levels, and promote excessive staffing, OT A said. Price con trols in developing countries "help to make energy more af fordable, [but] also result in a level of revenue inadequate to cover costs and finance future supply expansion," the report continued. Nearly two-thirds of the people in poor countries live in rural areas, which rely heavily on bio mass-firewood, charcoal and animal and crop wastes-for eaergy, OT A said. Biomass demand will continue to rise to meet the domestic needs of urban and rural poor, and in the case of Brazil, modern industry. Brazil uses charcoal for steelmaking and ethanol for automotive fuel. Rising biomass use will, in turn, exacerbate deforestation problems, decrease agricultural productivity and increase levels of toxic smoke, the report said. Combustion of fossil fuels has led to some of the highest levels of air pollution in the world in some developing countries' cities, OT A continued. The transporta tion sector is the worst polluting sector in many cities, but oil and gas use by electric utilities, factories, and households also spews out varying amounts of nitrogen oxides, particulates, sulfur dioxide, carbon dioxide, carbon monox ide, and hydrocarbons. "With expanding populations, rapidly increased energy use, and assuming the absence of control measures, the developing country share [of annual global energy sector carbon dioxide emissions] would increase to 44 percent of annual energy sector emissions by 2025," OTA said. And deforestation could be the source of between 7 to 35 percent of total annual CO2 emissions, the research arm added. The Third World needs to in crease its efficiency in energy production and use, OT A said. Energy supplies in many coun tries are unreliable and expensive, and energy efficiency varies widely from country to country. India and China, the two largest developing country energy con sumers, rely on industrial processes ''that are a generation or more behind the state of the art,'' OTA added. Third World thermal power plants frequently operate far below design capacity and effi ciency, and electricity trans mission and distribution losses frequently exceed 15 percent. In the U.S., transmission and distri bution losses are 6 to 7 percent in dense urban areas and 9 to 10 percent in rural areas .. "The existence of wide differences between operational effi ciencies in reasonably standar dized operations (e.g., cooking, steelmaking, electricity genera tion and petroleum refining), both among developing countries and between the developing and industrial countries, suggests that dramatic improvements in effi ciencies are possible," OT A said. "More efficient ways of providing energy services for development, including both tech nologies and the institutional and policy mechanisms determining their rate of adoption, will be presented in a later [OT A] report," the research arm said. "Developing countries at the beginning of the development process may be able to capitalize on technology to develop toward modern economies without the high energy growth that earlier characterized the path to industrialization," OT A con cluded. -DANIAL LE WEA VER

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\__\}-, v -NBlSOAY LONG !SLANO, NV DAILY 582,388 TUESDAY HAR 5 1991 /l. !563 BVlfREU.E"S BK I QuestiOning Worker Tests Abrams proposes law to bar companies from using honesty exams ~-')..q-r)' By Ronald E. Roel STAFF WRITER Integrity test.a that m~ worker attitudes toward stealing, drug use and other counf.erproductive behavior should be banned in New York State, Attor ney General Robert Abrams said yesterday. Abrams has proposed legislation that would outlaw the use of written integrity test.a to screen prospective employees, as well as prohibit companies from retaliating against employees who refuse to take the tests. The test.a have become increasingly popular in the three years since Congress banned the use of lie detectors in job screening, saying such test.a were an inva sion of privacy and they also were unreliable. Experts say an estimated 5 million integrity or honesty test.a are given each year by 5,000 to 6,000 companies nationwide. Abrams, who was joined by Assemb. Frank Barbaro (D-Brooklyn) and several other groups supporting the proposed bill, said integrity test.a "raise serious ques tions of privacy, confidentiality and discrimination." Last fall, a report by the CongressjonaJ Office 0 ( Technology Assessment found that research on integrity test.a wu inconclusive, neither supporting nor refuting claima that these test.a could accurately predict dishonest behavior. The report said, however, that some studies found that 73 percent to 97 percent of those who failed the test.a but were still hired did not end up lteal.ing from their employers~.studfes have-found that 30 percent to 60 percent of those who take the test.a fail. While testing firms and industry groups acknowl edge that some integrity test.a may be faulty, they insist others are valid tools for job screening. "There's no reason for singling out these tests from other personnel test.a used successfully in [employee] selection," said Wayne Camara, director of scientific affairs for the Ameri&ln Psychological Association, a Washington, D.C.-based trade group. "It is premature to propose any legislation that takes a broad sweep at an entire classification of tests," Camara said. On Thursday, the psychological qsociation is releasing its own report on integrity testing. Businesses will probably be opposed to the legisla tion. "We think this bill puts restrictions on businesses' ability to select a quality work force," said Robert Ward, spokesman for the Busin Council of New York State, an industry group. Massachusetts and Rhode Island already have statutes prohibiting or re stricting the use of integrity test.a. _.., .-'J ..------~-------

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I MEDICAL ECONOMICS ORADELL, NJ 25-TIMES/YEAR 1)3,000 JAN 211991 Bu~ -4202 M~ What will stop the erosion of rural health care l"J.q 7 y Without an infusion of money from state and federal governments, the prospects for rural health care are "grim," according to the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment. An OT A study found, for example, that 111 counties-with a total popwation of 325, 100-had no physicians at all in 1988. What's more, half a million rural residents live in counties with no physicians trained to provide obstetrical care, and 49 million live in counties that have no psychiatrists. Here's how states are trying to alleviate their manpower shortages. Number of states using method Placement servlces .................................................................................................. 29 Other* ................................................................ ............................ 23 National Health Service Corps .................................................... 23 Loan-forgiveness or loan-repayment programs ....................... 16 Service-contingent state scholarshlps ................................ 15 includes travel allowances for prospective physicians, bonuses for relocating, tuition reimbursement, paid malpractice insurance. and low-interest loans. Source: Health Care in Rural America, Office of Technology Assessment ~-~;,. -. .. ,.

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RADIO CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM 20' 992-6600 8CC "52' : 6: \,larch 22. I 99 I 7:50-S:00 AM American Public Radio Marketplace: The Morning Report Jim Angle. host: ACCOUNT NUMBER The nation and the economy ha\e a hig prohlem. The educational "' ,rem i" having a hard time turninl! out students who med the needs of ...\meri1.:an business. But in this edition of Think Tank. prndu .. :ed in collaboration ,, ith tht: "Harvard Business Re, iew." B_L)ston correspc,ndent .\laJge Kaplan repons that business also has a problem with \\ orkers who :ire already on the job. \ladge Kaplan reporting: You'd never izuess it from all the handwrimrinl! o,er the educatiL)n 1.:ns1s. hut American students perform about as \\ell toda~ ;, ... they did twenty years agL). The problem is that's no longer good enough. "Haf\ arJ Business Re', ie\\" Editor '.\/an ~tone has been studying this problem and she says more jobs than e\ er. especially service and manufacturing jobs. require the ability to understand and manipulate abstract inform.1tion. tStone relates a personal situation that occurrc'd in an .1irport. K.1pl.1n reports on several programs adopted by bw,ine,,c's in answer to this need.) Kaplan: According to the Federal Office of T e,:h1wlL)' Assessment. t\\ enry to thirty percent of C.S. ,,orkers cant read or ,Hite ,,di. much less h;111dle the complex skills needed to perform their jobs. Right nL1\\ some employers discover this the hard ,,ay as in the case ot one manuticrurer. ,: :,,: :-: (SCM'.\L.\RY: Kaplan .. :ires a study rhat finds just h;df of one per .. :enr l,t ,1U C.S. employers accounting for the estimated fort:, l"illiL,n dollars spent L'll training annually. Stone compare" the ..\meri1..-:1n ... iru.1ri,1n wirh th.1r in J.1p:111 and Germany. suggesting that ...\m~rican educar .. ,r-. .111..I employ~r-. ..t,, !ik.e,\ i-.e. l 21 Clips

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