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Quarterly Report to the Technology Assessment Board, October 1 - December 31, 1991

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Title:
Quarterly Report to the Technology Assessment Board, October 1 - December 31, 1991
Series Title:
Quarterly Report Office of Technology Assessment
Creator:
Office of Technology Assessment
Publisher:
Office of Technology Assessment
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Language:
English
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85 pages.

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Technology assessment ( LIV )
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federal government publication ( marcgt )
Spatial Coverage:
Washington, D.C.

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This is a quarterly report detailing the budget and progress of the Office of Technology Assessment.

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Source Institution:
University of North Texas
Holding Location:
University of North Texas
Rights Management:
This item is a work of the U.S. federal government and not subject to copyright pursuant to 17 U.S.C. §105.

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IUF:
University of Florida
OTA:
Office of Technology Assessment

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Quarterly Report to the Technology Assessment Board Oct. 1-Dec. 31, 1991 OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES

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CONTENTS I. COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS A. Summary of FY '91 Completions, Ongoing Work in FY '92, and New Starts Through December 30, 1991 ....................... 2 B. Products Delivered During the Quarter 1. Reports . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 2. Other: Background Papers and Administrative Documents . . . . . . . . . . . 10 3. Staff Memos or Letter Memoranda .......................... 13 4. Testimony . . . . . . . . . . . .13 C. Other Communication with Congress 1. Formal Briefing --Topics . . . . . . . 14 2. Informal Discussions --Topics .......................... 14 D. List of Current OTA Assessments as of 12/31/91 ................ 18 E. First Quarter 1992: Legislation With References to OTA .................................................. 20 F. New Assessments Approved During the Quarter ................... 23 II. PUBLICATION BRIEFS OF FORMAL ASSESSMENTS DELIVERED III. SELECTED NEWS CLIPS ON OTA PUBLICATIONS AND ACTIVITIES

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-2-I. COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS A. Summary of FY '91 Completions, Ongoing Work in FY '92, and New Starts Through December 31, 1991 Products Released *Reports **Other Background Papers Testimony Staff Memos or Letter Memoranda New Projects Approved by TAB Assessments Other (Scope Changes; Special Responses Over Director's limits) FY '91 Total 26 9 47 1 16 0 FY '92 Ql Q2 Q3 7 9 5 1 4 Projects in Process as of December 31, 1991 1. Under TAB Review 2. In Press Reports Other (Background, Papers, etc.) 3. In Progress Assessments Other 0 11 2 33 18 Q4 *Reports now includes full assessment reports and special reports **Other refers to Background Papers and those projects previously named report supplements, case studies, workshop proceedings and administrative documents

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-3-I. COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS B. Products Released During the Quarter I. Reports IMPROVING AUTOMOBILE FUEL ECONOMY NEW STANDARDS, NEW APPROACHES -Congress is again engaged in a vigorous debate about the future of U.S. Energy policy. Key issues in the debate are the ongoing problem of rising oil imports and their effect on national security, balance of payments, emerging concerns about global climate change, and concerns about the health and competitive stance of American industry. A major policy option in the debate, raising the efficiency of the U.S. automobile fleet by increasing new car fuel economy standards, intersects all three key issues: 1) Oil imports and national security; 2) Global warming; and 3) Competitiveness. This report examines the fuel economy potential of the U.S. fleet and hopes to assist Congress in establishing new fuel economy standards. In responding to the request for the assessment, not all issues were addressed. We recognize that a full examination of all options open to Congress should include the examination of a variety of conservation options including gasoline taxes, traffic control plans, gas guzzler/gas sipper taxes and rebates, improvement of competing mass transportation systems, etc. OTA expects to address these and other options in a future study on transportation energy conservation. Requestors Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Hon. J. Bennett Johnston, Chairman Project Director: Steve Plotkin, 228-6275 published October 1991 NEW WAYS -TILTROTOR AIRCRAFT AND MAGNETICALLY LEVITATED VEHICLES Demand for high-speed intercity transportation continues to climb in the United States, but the capacity of the most heavily used airports and airways is limited. Rail service competes with aviation in some corridors, particularly up to 500 miles. Some of this demand could be met, and congestion at airports relieved, if two technologies now in the early stages of development proved technically feasible and economically reasonable compared to alternatives such as high speed rail. These technologies, tiltrotor aircraft and magnetically

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-4-levitated (maglev) trains, would require billions of dollars and substantial Federal support if they are to enter the marketplace. Congress has supported early work on both technologies through various Federal defense and domestic programs. Decisions now facing Congress will determine whether or not these technologies proceed, whether or not versions of the technologies used in the United States are produced at home or in other countries, and what other alternatives (high-speed rail) might prove cost-effective. Analysis is required as to what role the Federal Government should play in relieving intercity congestion, and in selecting and developing technologies. Management, funding decision, and total public costs projected for each system will be critical to wise policy making. The objectives for the study included: 1) evaluating the state of technology development and additional work necessary to make tiltrotor or maglev economically attractive; 2) examining the potential demand for these technologies; 3) comparing maglev and tiltrotor to other similar, but advanced technologies, such as high-speed rail and next generation helicopters; and 4) identifying the Federal, State, and private sector roles for supporting these technologies. Requestors House Committee on Appropriations Hon. Jamie Whitten, Chairman Hon. William Lehman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Transportation Appropriations Hon. Lawrence Coughlin, Ranking Minority Member Senate Committee on Finance Hon. John Heinz Project Director: Kevin Dopart; 228-6937 Published October 1991 BIOTECHNOLOGY IN A GLOBAL ECONOMY The United States government indirectly supports industrial applications of biotechnology by funding basic research in a wide range of relevant disciplines. Congressional interest in both the regulation of biotechnology and its role in economic growth has been evident in hearings and legislation since the early 1980's. International economic competitiveness has emerged as a key bipartisan issue in the 100th Congress. To date, congressional actions related to biotechnology have been primarily focused on regulatory issues, with less consideration of how other industrial policies might conflict with or complement the U.S. competitive position in the industries most affected by these new techniques.

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-5-Biotechnology efforts underway in Western Europe and Japan cover a spectrum of industries. Not all countries are targeting all industries. This assessment of the U.S. competitive position in biotechnology takes into account the extent to which specific countries are posing a significant challenge in the application of biotechnology to particular industrial sectors. Traditional indicators of competitive status (e.g., imports, exports, trade balances, employment) are not yet useful predictors of the U.S. position in biotechnology due to the immaturity of the industry and the unavailability of data. This assessment develops unique criteria upon which a competitive assessment could be made. The assessment 1) identifies current U.S. capabilities in various applications of biotechnology and compares these capabilities to efforts underway internationally; 2) addresses trade, export, and international intellectual property issues relevant to the safe and timely commercialization of products derived from biotechnology; and 3) assesses the feasibility of cooperative ventures between U.S. firms (such as those formed in Japan and Western Europe). Requesters: Senate Committee on the Budget Hon. Lawton Chiles, Chairman Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Hon. Patrick Leahy, Chairman Hon. Richard Lugar, Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Hon. Robert Roe, Chairman Endorser Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Hon. John Glenn, Chairman Project Director: Kevin O'Connor, 228-6683 Published October 1991 U.S. OIL IMPORT VULNERABILITY: THE TECHNICAL REPI.ACEMENT CAPABILITY -Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in August 1990 triggered a long-dormant awareness of this Nation's vulnerability to disruptions in foreign oil supplies. Amid heightened concern over the potential impacts on U.S. oil supplies of prolonged hostilities in the Middle East, the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources asked OTA to update the conclusions of our 1984 report, U.S. Vulnerability to an Oil Import Curtailment: The Oil Replacement Capability. The Subcommittee on Energy And Power of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce subsequently joined in the request.

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-6-This report examines the changes that have taken place in world oil markets and the U.S. economy since 1984 and provides revised estimates of the technical oil replacement potential that might be attained in the event of a severe and long lasting cutoff of imported oil. The analysis focuses on technologies that are commercially available today or will be within the next 5 years and that are among the most cost-effective methods for replacing oil use in a applicable sectors. It also considers the economic impacts of adopting an aggressive oil replacement strategy in a severe oil emergency. The report presents a variety of policy options that could help accelerate the adoption of oil replacement technologies in preparation for, or in response to, a severe supply disruption, or as part of a long-term national policy to reduce import vulnerability. Reguestors Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Hon. J. Bennett Johnston, Chairman House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. Philip Sharp, Chairman, Subcommittee on Energy and Power Project Director: Karen Larsen, 228-6271 Published October 1991 COMPETING ECONOMIES: AMERICA, EUROPE, AND THE PACIFIC RIM (TRADE III) The United States must continue efforts to develop and diffuse manufacturing technology in order to reduce its trade deficit and return to a path of increasing the standard of living of its citizens. But technology is not enough; other countries' trade regimes and market conditions can make it difficult for U.S. producers to compete even if the they produce high-quality reliable products at reasonable prices. The United States holds the view that free markets, domestic and international, are most conducive to improved competitiveness. In contrast, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and to differing degrees, the nations of the European Community are more actively involved in trying to improve industrial competitiveness throught a variety of policies. While all their efforts have not been successful, their many successful policies to improve competitiveness, particularly in East Asia, have led directly to rising prosperity. The assessment report cautioins that, unless the United States develops a strategic approach to building competitiveness, U.S. manufacturers probably will continue to lose world market share and as a result, most U.S. workers and citizens are likely to continue to see their standards of living erode.

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-7-A strategic U.S. approach is much more likel to succeed if it is aimed at improving American manufacturing technology--which would enable improved manufacturing efficiency and productivity, higher product quality and greater reliability--than if it attempts to punish America's trade partners for their own efforts to nurture important industries. This report examines how the economic environment of the United States can be made more conducive to improving manufacturing performance. It considers how Federal institutions, in cooperation with industry, can develop competitiveness strategies for hightech, fast growing industries; and how trade, financial and technology policies could be combined into a strategic competitiveness policy. Competing Economies: America, Europe, and the Pacific Rim is the third major report of the OTA assessment Technology, Innovation. and U.S. Trade. The first in the series was Paying the Bill: Manufacturing and America's Trade Deficit, and the second was Making Things Better: Competing in Manufacturing. Reguestors: House Committee on Finance Hon. Lloyd Bentsen, Chairman Hon. John Heinz (deceased) Hon. Charles E. Grassley Project Director: Julie Gorte, 228-6354 Published November 1991 MINIATURIZING TECHNOLOGIES: CURRENT STATUS, FUTURE TRENDS, IMPLICATIONS -New technologies are changing the nature of electronic and mechanical devices by making them smaller than ever imagined. In the field of mechanics, new techniques developed by American researchers have allowed the creation of motors, gears and levers that are smaller than human hairs. Meanwhile, the demand for smaller electronics is forcing designers to fabricate devices on the atomic scale in order to squeeze more electronics onto a computer chip. Smaller size means lower power, reduced heat dissipation and, most importantly, higher speed. These advantages make miniaturization technology critical to the competitiveness of electronics, computers and telecommunications industries. The technologies are also essential for development of new defense and space applications, such as advanced sensors and smart weapons.

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-8-Despite the promise of these technologies, U.S. industry is facing demands for short-term results from its R&D investments. AT&T Bell Labs, for example, recently terminated its pioneering work in micromotors to pursue more near-term projects. This project provides an overview of current and future R&D in miniaturization technologies. It 1) profiles domestic R&D in miniaturization including achievements to date, current activities, trends, and obstacles; 2) compiles available information about foreign R&D activities in miniaturization; 3) discusses the potential for future applications and provides insights into possible rates for development and utilization; and 4) identifies policy considerations for congressional cognizance or action. Requesters House Committee on Science, Space and Technology Hon. Robert E. Roe, then Chairman Hon. Robert S. Walker, Ranking Republican member Hon. George E. Brown, Jr., now Chairman Project Director: Sunil Paul, 228-6760 Published November 1991 ADOLESCENT HEALTH The report responds to the request of numerous Members of Congress to review the physical, emotional, and behavioral health status of contemporary American adolescents, including adolescents in groups who might be more likely to be in special need of health-related interventions; adolescents living in poverty, adolescents from racial and ethnic minority groups, Native American adolescents, and adolescents in rural areas. In addition, OTA was asked to: 1) identify risk and protective factors for adolescent health problems and integrate national data in order to understand the clustering of specific adolescent health problems, 2) evaluate options in the organization of health services and technologies available to adolescents (including accessibility and financing), 3) assess options in the conduct of national health surveys to improve collection of adolescent health statistics, and 4) identify gaps in research in the health and behavior of adolescents. The assessment was published in three volumes: Volume I, Summary and Policy Options (published April 1991); Volume II, Background and the Effectiveness of Selected Prevention and Treatment Services (published Nov. 1991); and Volume III Crosscutting Issues in the Delivery of Health and Related Services (published June 1991).

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-9Interim Deliverables: Health Insurance for Adolescents (staff paper) (pub.8/89) Indian Adolescent Mental Health (Special Report)(pub.1/90) Reguestors: Senate Select Committee on Indian Affairs Hon. Daniel K. Inouye, Chairman Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation Hon. Nancy L. Kassebaum, Chairman of the Aviation Subcommittee Congressional endorsers: Hon. Orrin Hatch, U.S. Senate Hon. Ted Stevens, U.S. Senate Hon. Charles Grassley, U.S. Senate Hon. Claiborne Pell, U.S. Senate Hon. Edward M. Kennedy, U.S. Senate Hon. Morris Udall, then U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Bob Dole, U.S. Senate Hon. Robert C. Byrd, U.S. Senate Hon. William H. Gray, III, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. James M. Jeffords, then U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Lowell P. Weicker, Jr., U.S. Senate Hon. Quentin N. Burdick, U.S. Senate Hon. John C. Stennis, U.S. Senate Hon. Mark 0. Hatfield, U.S. Senate Hon. Alan K. Simpson, U.S. Senate Hon. Alan Cranston, U.S. Senate Hon. Lawton Chiles, U.S. Seante Hon. Bob Packwood, U.S. Senate Hon. Spark Matsunaga, U.S. Senate Hon. Daniel J. Evans, then U.S. Senate Hon. Arlen Specter, U.S. Senate Hon. Henry A. Waxman, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Daniel K. Akaka, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Patricia F. Saiki, U. S. House of Representatives Hon. Frank H. Murkowski, U.S. Senate Hon. Christopher J. Dodd, U.S. Senate Hon. Dale Bumpers, U.S. Senate Hon. Lloyd Bentsen, U.S. Senate Hon. Daniel P. Moynihan, U.S. Senate Hon. John D. Rockefeller, IV, U.S. Senate Hon. Edwaard R. Madigan, U.S. Senate Hon. Thad Cochran, U.S. Senate Hon. Don Young, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Barbara Mikulski, U.S. Senate Project Director: Denise Dougherty, 228-6590

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-10-I. B. 2. Other: Background Papers, and Administrative Reports MEDICAL MONITORING AND SCREENING IN THE WORKPLACE -RESULTS OF A SURVEY -Screening of prospective employees for health status and certain behaviors and monitoring of workers' health are generally thought to be widespread in American workplaces, but few data exist about either practices. This OTA Background Paper presents the results of a survey of 1,500 U.S. companies, the 50 largest utilities, and the largest unions. The survey was designed to obtain information about the types of medical monitoring and screening done in the U.S. and the extent of their use. Project Director: Margaret A. Anderson, 228-6695 Published 10/91 SCREENING MAMMOGRAPHY IN PRIMARY CARE SETTINGS: IMPLICATIONS FOR COST, ACCESS AND QUALITY -OTA was asked to review the costs and quality of screening mammography in primary care physicians' offices, and also to examine the issues raised by leasing arrangements such as those offered by Spectrascan Imaging Services, Inc. This Background Paper delivers the conclusions of that review. OTA concluded that offering screening mammograms through primary care physicians' offices is not inconsistent with high quality mammography, but the cost and difficulty of maintaining quality in these settings is likely to be greater because they typically have low volumes and the lines of authority over quality control are less clear than in centers or practices run by radiologists. Project Director: Judith Wagner, 228-6590 Published 10/91 HIV IN THE HEALTH CARE WORKPLACE -Recent reports of five cases of HIV transmission within a dental practice have raised issues regarding patient safety and received much public attention. The Centers for Disease Control's reports of these cases and CDC's subsequent recommendations for preventing transmission of HIV and the hepatitis B virus to patients during exposure-prone invasive procedures have in turn led Congress to consider several actions directed at HIV in the health care workplace. This background paper examines evidence of the risk of HIV transmission in the health care workplace and discusses the policy implications of CDC guidelines and congressional actions in response to this risk. The issues discussed in this paper were the subject of a workshop conducted by OTA July 25-26, 1991. Project Director: Maria Hewitt, 228-6590 Published 11/91

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-11-THE 1992 WORLD ADMINISTRATIVE RADIO CONFERENCE (WARC 1992): ISSUES FOR U.S. INTERNATIONAL SPECTRUM POLICY -Today, a host of new technologies and services, such as digital audio broadcasting, high-definition television, and personal communications services, are vying with existing radio-based applications for a slice of the valuable, but crowded, radio spectrum. The radio frequency spectrum is a common natural resource shared by the nations of the world. The World Administrative Radio Conference meeting in Spain in February 1992 (WARC-92) will attempt to reassign the radio frequencies in order to take advantage of these new applications, while still accommodating the needs of existing users. The background paper examines the U.S. preparations process for WARC-92, highlighting efforts to integrate the needs and concerns of various interest groups. It also reviews the forces and trends affecting the U.S. as it approaches WARC-92, and is intended to inform future congressional oversight of the domestic and international radio communication policy process. Project Director: David Wye, 228-6945 Published 11/91 AMERICAN MILITARY POWER: FUTURE NEEDS, FUTURE CHOICES -America's global security environment is changing profoundly, pushing the country toward a fundamental reevaluation of its military requirements and those of the supporting defense technology and industrial base. If U.S.-Soviet relations do not deteriorate, defense procurement could accelerate its present decline though the end of the decade. The Office of Technology Assessment has been asked to conduct an assessment of what form the future defense technology and industrial base might take. This background paper, part of the overall assessment, outlines some of the issues of importance for making choices about the future nature and role of the U.S. armed forces, and suggest how these choices will affect defense base requirements. Project Director: Jack Nunn, 228-6446 Published 10/91 THE FBI FINGERPRINT IDENTIFICATION AUTOMATION PROGRAM: ISSUES AND OPTIONS -This background paper assesses the FBI's strategic plans to modernize and fully automate its fingerprint identification and criminal history record system. The paper focuses on key assumptions that will affect the sizing and procurement of the new FBI system, and on other related steps that appear necessary to ensure complete and up-to-date record systems. These include full implementation of a Federal/State/local partnership for maintaining and exchanging fingerprint and criminal history records; enactment of an interstate compact of

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-12-Federal legislation setting out uniform rules for the exchange of such records; standards and funding for improving criminal history record completeness and disposition reporting; and privacy and security protections for electronic fingerprint and record information. Project Director: Fred Wood, 228-6790 Published 10/91 DIOXIN TREATMENT TECHNOLOGIES -Nearly 100 hazardous waste sites around the U.S. have serious problems with dioxin contamination. Very little actual cleanup has been done at these sites. Plans to incinerate dioxin-contaminated materials at some sites have caused concern in the local communities that has led to public debate about the effectiveness of incineration and the availability of other remediation alternatives. This background paper presents the status of national efforts to cleanup dioxincontaminated sites and the technologies that have been used, proposed and researched. It covers thermal and nonthermal treatment techniques as well as approaches such as stabilization and storage. It discusses the development of these technologies as well as the advantages and disadvantages of their use. Project Director: Peter Johnson, 228-6862 Published 11/91 REVIEW OF A PROTOCOL FOR "A STUDY OF REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH OUTCOMES AMONG WOMEN VIETNAM VETERANS" (Dated July 1991) -This Background Paper is OTA's review of the protocol prepared by the Department of Veterans' Affairs (VA) in partial response to the mandate of Public Law 99-272, which requires study of potential health effects of Vietnam service on women veterans. The study complements two other components, which together make up the full VA response to the mandate. The first was a study of the patterns of mortality among women Vietnam veterans after leaving the service. The second piece is an in-depth analysis of psychological health data collected on women Vietnam veterans in the National Vietnam Veterans Readjustment Study (NVVRS). Project Director: Hellen Gelband, 228-6590 Published 12/91 CATALOG OF PUBLICATIONS -Administrative Document Published 10/91

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-13-I. B. 3.0TA Staff Memos or Letter Memoranda Date 12/17/91 Subject Overview of Options for Meeting for Future Water Demands of Pacific Southwest (Staff Memo) Description Requested by Sen. Stevens and prepared by Oceans and Environment Program based on on-going work I. B. 4. Testimony Date 11/16/91 11/17/91 11/24/91 11/20/91 12/16/91 Committee Subcommittee on Transportation and Hazardous Materials of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce Subject/Person Testifying Maglev and High Speed Rail (Kevin Dopart) Subcommittee on Economic Stabilization Nation's Long-Term of the House Committee on Banking, Energy Future Finance and Urban Affairs (Peter Blair) House Committee on Armed Services Subcommittee on Intellectual Property and Judicial Administration, House Committee on the Judiciary Subcommittee on the Environment of House Committee on Science, Space and Technology Defense Technology and The Manufacturing Technology Resources (Jack Nunn) Patents and Biotechnology (Michael Gough) Biotechnology in a Global Economy (Kevin O'Connor and Margaret McLaughlin)

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I. C. -14-Other Communication with Congress 1. 2. Formal Briefings. Presentations, Workshops (With Committee Staffs) COMMITTEES OF THE SENATE Joint Economic Legislation relevant to conversion of small defense firms to commercial production COMMITTEES OF THE HOUSE Science, Space and Technology Summary and Policy Options of Competing Economies report Informal Discussions --Topics In addition to briefings and presentations, informal discussions take place continually, as requested by Members and staff. OTA staff members give updates on ongoing work and provide information that Members and Committees may need relative to legislation pending or under consideration or for hearings and related testimony. ENERGY, MATERIALS, AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY DIVISION Energy and Materials Program Alaskan Oil Production Alternative Nuclear Reactor Designs Alternative Transportation Fuels Arctic National Wildlife Refuge CAFE Regulations Clean Coal Technology Early Retirement Programs for Autos Electric Utility Transmission Access Electric Vehicles Energy Efficiency Energy Efficiency R&D Energy in Developing Countries Energy Subsidies Ethanol Federal Energy Use Fuel Economy Technology Nuclear Power Plant Life Extension Oil Imports Vulnerability RCRA Bill Renewable Energy Soviet Energy Issues

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-15Industry. Technology and Employment Program American Industry and the Environment study Appropriations for NASA and NSF Engineering Education Environment and the GATT Environmental Regulations and Standards ... International Competitiveness Human Resource Policies Impacts on workers, committees and companies of the Defense Buildown Incentives for Long-Term Investments International Industrial Competitiveness Industrial Extension Service Manufacturing R&D and technology policy R&D Tax Credit Technology Diffusion Trade Policy International Security and Commerce Program Civilian Remote Sensing Defense Industry Base Strategy French Defense Industry National Aerospace Plane Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction Prototyping START Treaty HEALTH AND LIFE SCIENCES DIVISION Biological Applications Program Biotechnology Forensic Uses of DNA Tests Genetic Monitoring and Screening in the Workplace Genetic Privacy Hormone Replacement Therapy Human Genome Medical Testing in the Workplace Substance Abuse and Addiction Food and Renewable Resources Program 1990 Census Data Evaluation on Economic Issues A.I.D.'s use of No-Year Funds Alternative Crops Alternative Development Aquaculture Biocontrol of Cocoa Cocoa study Crop Insurance and Risk Sharing Forest Planning Assessment on Renewability of U.S. Forest Resources Grassroots Organization in Promoting Crop Substitution

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-16-Irrigation Water Costs in the Control Valley Project Noxious Weeds Pacific Yew Tree -Contract & Agreement of USFS REA Borrowers and their procedures for Cash Handling Rural Credit Science and Technology Issues in the_Endangered Species Act Selenium and Health Impacts Social Safety net for Low-Income Families Soviet Grain Exports to USSR countries Timber Sales Tree Growth Rates and Forest Renewability U.S. Farm Bill Zebra Mussels and Duck Mortalities Health Program Clinical Laboratories Defensive Medicine Health Care Reform Health Professions Training HIV and Health Care Workers Lawsuits re Prenatal Care Oregon Medicaid Physician Payment Review Commission Preventive Services Prospective Payment Assessment Commission Single-use Needles to Diminish Spread of HIV SCIENCE, INFORMATION AND NATURAL RESOURCES DIVISION Oceans and Environment Program Aircraft Emissions Building Energy Efficiency Costs of CO2 Emissions Reductions Costs of Tough Scenario DOD Military Base Closures Effects of Climate Change on Forests Findings of Complex Cleanup Report and future studies on DOD Cleanup Follow-up to Complex Cleanup Report Industrial Subtitle D Waste R&D For Climate Change Renewable Energy Supply Technologies Retirement of Nuclear Weapons Role of Transportation in Climate Change Utility CO2 Emissions

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-17~cience, Education and Transportation Program Americans with Disabilities and Bus Transportation Aviation Research Data on Community Colleges Health of Research High-Speed Rail NSF Ph.D. Supply and Demand Data and Analysis Returns on Investment in R&D and "Economic Spinoffs" Tiltrotor Aircraft Telecommunication and Computing Technologies Program 1992 World Administrative Radio Conference Computer Technology Digital Audio Recorders Direct Broadcast Satellites and Digital Audio Broadcasting Findings of Miniaturization Technologies Information Technology in U.S. Competitiveness Intellectual Property Laws NREN Status Patent Procedures Software Piracy Software Reverse Engineering and Decompilation

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ASSESSMENTS IN PROGRESS, December 31, 1991: BUDGET AND SCHEDULE < 1992 Current Projected Date For Delivea To TAB JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL ENERGY, MATERIALS, AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY Energy and Materials 1127 U.S. Energy Efficiency: Past Trends & Future Opportunities 1128 Materials Technology:lntegrating Environmental Goals with Product Design 1129 Renewable Energy Technology: Research Development & Commercial Prospects 1130 Aging Nuclear Powerplants: Life Attainment, License Extension & Decommissioning Industry, Technology, and Employment 1217 Technology Opportunities for Economic Conversion (in coordination with ISC #1318) 1218 U.S.-Mexico Trade, Technology, & Investment 1219 American Industry and the Environment: Implications for Trade & U.S. Competitiveness International Security and Commerce 1318 Managing the Nation's Defense Industrial Strength in a Changing Security Environment (in coordination with ITE #1217 1319 Police Body Armor Standards & Testing 1320 Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction 1321 Earth Observation Systems HEALTH AND LIFE SCIENCES Biological Applications 2315 New Developments in Neuroscience 2320 Cystic Fibrosis: Implications of Population Screening 2321 Research on Risk Assessment of Chemical Carcinogens 2322 Technologies for Understanding the Root Causes of Substance Abuse & Addiction Food and Renewable Resources 2118 Agricultural Alternatives to Coca Production 2119 Non-Indegenous Species in the United States Health 2203 Monitoring of Mandated Veteran Studies 2222 Drug Labeling in Developing Countries 2229 Federal Response to AID's: Congressional Issues 2231 Government Policies and Pharmaceutical R&D 2232 Evaluation of the Oregon Medicaid Proposal 2234 Technology, Insurance and Health Care System 2236 Defensive Medicine & the Use of Medical Technology 2237 International Differences in Health Technology Services and Economies 2239 Policy Issues in the Prevention and Treatment of Osteoporosis SCIENCE, INFORMATION, AND NATURAL RESOURCES Oceans and Environment 3220 Systems at risk from Climate Change Science, Education, and Transportation Technologies for Literacy 3316 3318 3319 Intercity Bus Access for Individuals with Disabilities Aviation Research, Technology Development, & Implementation: Looking to the Future Telecommunication and Computing Technologies 3122 Information Technology and Research 3126 Federal Telecommunications for the 21st Century: Transforming the Delivery of Government Services .. TAB App. = TAB approved budget estimates; X X }( X X X X X X X X X X X X OTA Proj. = OTA projected budget as of 12/31/91; AUG SEP X > $ Thousands TAB OTA% OCT NOV DEC Alm,. Proj. Var. 799.5 799.5 636.4 636.4 (Feb. 1993) 580 580 (Jan. 1993) 359 359 750 750 460 460 (June 1993) 693 693 750 750 279 279 (Oct. 1993) 790 790 (Oct. 1993) 830 830 690 792 +14.78 489 489 (Feb. 1993) 319 319 (June 1994) 706 706 297 300 +1.17 694 694 (mandated) 88 23 NIA 490 582 + 18.73 (ongoing) 280 302 -7.8 547 665 -21.62 135 262 +94.32 (Jan. 1993) 632 632 (Sept. 1993) 797 797 (July 1993) 683 683 123 141 -14.71 (June 1993) 855 855 716 716 (Jan. 1993) 415 415 (Sept. 1993) 562 562 564 564 (June 1994) 585 585 % Var. = Percent variance of projected cost.

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I. D. LIST OF CURRENT OTA ASSESSMENTS AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1991 For further information please call OTA's Office of Congressional Affairs -4-9241 Estimated Cost dellwry to Project Director/ code Project 11111 WI for ravtew contact ENERGY, MATERIALS, AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY DIVISION ENlff,._1'1111......,_: Plllrllllr, Prlt ........ ,HZ71 1126 Fueling dMlopment providing energy SIMCIS for dMloplng countries (In press) Dellwrld Enefgy In dMloplng counlrlls (published 1/91) 1127 U.S. energy lfllcllncy: past trlnds and futur10pportun1tlls Feb. 1992 lndusbtal energy lfflcllncy Jan. 1992 Enefgy lfflcllncy In the fldllal Government (publlslled 5191) Bullclng energy lfllcllncy (In press) .................................................. DelMl'ld 1128 Mal8rllll t8cllnology: lnllgr1lng aronmenlll goalS with product dallgn Feb. 1992 1129 RIIIIWIIIII energy 18Chnology: ..-rcll dMlopment and commen:111 prospects Feb. 1993 1130 Aging nuclear powerplanll: 11ft allalnmem. llceme lldlnslon and dllcomnnslonlng Jan. 1993 flllllllly, Teclllllllf, --1111 Prl..-: a.,na. Prl..--.., H34I 1217 Technology opportunities for economic conwnlon (In coonlnallon with ISC #1318) .. May 1992 Alllr the Cold Wlr. lMng with lower dlflnsl spending (In press) Dellvlrld 1218 U.S.-Mlldco lrldl. 18Chnology, and IIIVlltllllnt May 1992 1219 American Industry and the IIWlronment lmpllcallons for trade and U.S. competllwness June 1993 llllllllllllll....,Cl-.,.......,_:AIIIISlalw,Prlg11mM1111tr,.....a 1315 TIClmologles for START .....,it Vertllcallon 1ICmologles: maures for monitoring compllance with the START traaty (Claslllled report pullllshld 7/90) (unclassltled report publlshld 12/90) Resean:11 and clMlopment for cooperatlw arms control measures {Publlshld 5191) All1al SUMllllnce In lnllmlllonal ag1'8111111111 (published 7191) Monitoring llmltl on a-launched crulll mlssllll (unclasslllld sumnay) (In press) DelMl'8d 1317 Tecllnology against llmldsm: structuring securtty (In press) Dellwred Tecllnology against llmHlsm: the Ftderal effort (publlshld 7191) 1318 Managing the Nation's dlflme lndustltal s1l'lnglll In a changing IICUrity lllVlnlnmlnt (In coonlnlllon with ITE #1217) Mar. 1992 Adjusting to I lft NCWlly envlronnalt the dlflrlll llCll.1ology and lndustrlal ball challenge (badc. paper) (pullllshld 2/91) Amlrlcan mlltary power: Min IINds, Min choices (badc. paper) (publlshld 10/91) Redlllgnlng dlflnsl: planning the transition to the fulure U.S. dlfnl 18Chnology (publlshld 7/91) 1319 Pollcl body armor standanls and 111s11ng ................................................ Jan. 1992 1320 Prollflrallon of W111J0111 of mm dlstructloll Oct. 1993 1321 Earth ollllNallon sysllmS ............................................................. Oct. 1993 HEAIJ'H AND LIFE SCIENCES DIVISION IIIIIIICIIAIIJllclllllllPl'llrla:lllclllll.._Prltlla ...... ,H171 2315 New dMlopmenll In IIIIRICilla: ldlnllfylng and CCllllrOlllng poisons of the l1IMIUI system (pullllshld 4/90) Nell'II repairing the brain and spinal cord (publlsllld 9/90) Blologlcal rhythms: lmpllcatlons for lllt wortcar (publlshld 9191) TIii lllologlcal balls of 111111111 ....................................................... Mar. 1992 2320 Cys1lc 1lbnllis: lmpllcallons of populalon SCllllllng ............ Mar. 1992 6111111c lllllng, and gnac COUllllllors: 1'111.dts of a survey (bade. paper) (Mar. 1992) Genellc testing. and healtll insuren: 1'111.dts of I lllWY (bade. paper) (Mar. 1992) 2321 Rwll on risk mrnent of cllll1*:al carcinOQIIII ........ Feb. 1993 2322 Tachnologltl for undlrslanllng the root C111H1 of SUbs1ance abuse and addlcllon ........... JUIII 1994 ,.. .... n ....... """,_ l'rllllll: Wllllr Plltllll. Prl.,.. ......,, Hl52I 2118 agrlCultunl IICllnology: laull for the 1990s (In press) DelMl'8d Agrlculunl raan:11 and IICllnology transfer pollclas for the 1990s (pullllshld 3/90) U.S. dairy llldustly at a crossroadl: blollchnology and policy cholc8I (published 5191) AQrtculbnl commodltlll industrlal raw matlrlals (pulllllhld 6191) 2117 folllt IIMCI planning: ai:commodall"1J uses, producing oulpull, and sustaining ecosys11m1 (In press) ............................................................... DIIMred Form Service planning: Sltllng sb'ltllQIC clrlcdon under RA\ (pullllshld 7 /90) 2118 Agrtcultural altlmallvll to coca production Af/1. 1992 2119 NOIHndlQlnoUS speclel In the Unillld Slalll .............. Sept. 1982 11111111 Prqrla: Clla ....,, Prltra ...... HIii 2203 Monitoring of mandatlld Yllllrlll studies (mandated ongoing activities) Mlndat8d 2222 Drug lalllllng In clMloplng countrlll-plmll I (ptdlllshld 12188) Drug lalllling In dlvlloplng counbl8t--phase II Jan. 1992 2229 Federal....,.._ to Al>S: eongras1ona11111111 Ongoing Partial listing only: (contact Project Dlllctor for other tlll) -How ta Fedenl rman:11 on AIDSMIY dlseall conblbutlld to olhlr flalds? (staff PII*) (publlshld -WO, Tiil lfflctMIIISS of drug abuse lrlalmlnt (staff paper) (publlshld MIO) TIii dlflnillOn of AIJS (badc. paper) (Feb. 1992) 11V In the 111111b cart worlqlla (badc. paper) (publshld 10,'91) JfrfDunkadty Pellr Blair John Newman Paul Komar GregEyrtng Sim Baldwln Robin Roy Kitty GIiman John Alie Wlndell Ralchlr TomKaras Tony Fainblrg JackNum Mlktcallaham Gerald Epstein Ray WIiiamson David Llskowlky Lama Hal Robyn Nlshini Kathi Hanna Margarat Anderson Margaret Mcl.aughlln Kevin O'Connor f.tklPllllllps RoaGortl PatltclaDurana Phyllls'Mndl Hellen Gelband Bob McDonough/ Hellen Gelband Marla Hewitt Bob McDonough Phone No. 8-6287 8-6260 8-6273 8-6288 8-6270 8-6274 8-6285 8-6353 8-8345 8-8352 8-6428 8-6428 8-64'48 8-6676 8-6698 8-6690 8-6682 8-6695 8-6697 8-6692 8-6521 8-6520 8-6515 8-6533 8-6590 8-6590 8-6590 8-6590

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2231 &o.llfflldt pallcill 1111 plllrmlllCal RID ........................................... Jan. 1992 2232 EvllllllOII fJI Ill Or11D11 111111:1111: PlllfliDIII .1111. 19112 2233 HomllnbMIGllllllllucllllppUmlwdnlgtlllniplll undlrtlll Md:111 pragnm: ~--ICIIIPP IIIM*llllundlrllldll:all{Pulllllllld1CWI) 1111111 ctr111 lllflllllll 1IIIIIIIJ' undlr 1111111:111 (Ill 111111) Dllvllld 2234 TIClllcllalr, llllll'IIID 11111 11111111 Clll s,11111111 Ja. 1983 2231 Olfll..lllllll:llllallllllfll ................................................. -1983 m7 ...._. cllfllll II ... llellmlr-*" llld tcollOIDN .My 1983 2231 Paley.._ Ill 1111 prlt ... _... of ...................................... Mir. 19112 Scrllllilll fm ---.11111 {1111:11:. 11111111) (lllr'. 1912) Pulllc ldUclllDI 11111111 ....... (llll:IL 11111111) (lllr'. 1912) ICIEIICE. IIFORIIATION, AND NATURAL RESOURCES DMSION .................................................. 3219 Uldlcal-llldaiblf ........... salld---Flndlllgtllll\WaallGlllolld:llWIII (publllllld WI) ............................ 11111111) (11111111) 3220 __..1111c,... .... c11111g1 .111111 1983 ......_ I!- .~nm 1,s 111.,..... ...,CIIIII. ,..._ E7I r. Mal 3314 Scftooll. 11111 m- It ........ a, 111111mnt (Ill 111111) Dllvllld 3311 TllCllllcllaglll far' lllra:y JIIIII 1912 3311 lnllll:ly --far ld:Srt t .. J'IIIIAI ....................................... Ja. 1983 3319 -...-_ llldllllllaUdMl1pm1 ... .........,.claalngtDttllftmn Slpt. 1983 Tit .......... CIJ:g, 11 T11t11-......... Cllal, .............. ,. M7II .............. ..... ... 1111 Nlllal: .. ....., _. tdur:alan ,lllWade Mir. 19112 Hlgtl ........ CCIIIII lllgal--lllliUforlCIIIIICl(lllclr._, (pullllnd9Al9) SllldllglCllullanc lllgtl ,-,._ __ ...... (bll:lc. paper) (pullllnd3,9'1) 3124 CGlllpullr .._ 1ctat pniparty: 1111111111111c:1111111g11a, llclllalagtcat clllnll atallll ca11111 {111111111) ................................. Dllvlllll 3121 ,_., llllcamnllllll: ,. .. 21 CIIIMy. llllllfllmlll Ill dllMly af ......................................................................... 1114 DIRECTORAPPROVED SPECIAL RESPONSES DIIIIIIIIA _..__ 1 MDdlt pnJllllliiCli1ladlnllfarttll Foad Nulltlall SIMCII ...,_.11111 ... .....,.. (llllldllld ,... .....,, (JIii. 1912) ........a 1277 NolllCCIIIGllllc lldalDII al 1111111111 W11 11111111 (bll:lc. 1111111) (JI& 1912) (DTP) 1 -....a1oldll'V1Nc111:t111.....,, ............... .. 1111111) (.JIii. 1912) 1 ---........ ............. {1111:11:. 11111111) (FIii. 1912) 1 NASA'I 0lllcl a, Spa Sella al ...... C-IIIINIP IIIIIIIIIIY) ..................... Die. 1111 ........ 2212 ... .. ...,..__._,_,1111,u1111111EC11 11nr(mw IWldClllalftllCIMly) ................. ...,,,... 2211 PIIWllclll ......... CD lllllla(MPttS .... IGIMly) ....................... MII ... 2311 ,_.,palcy .... lltllldli:IIJ -Udl'IIPMfl ~----for,._wftll cllllllllla (bll:lc. 11111111) (FIii., 1111) 211D DlligllalCIII ........ CIIIIIPIII.Gfl......,IIIMttl ........ m-msnara: lllll:lllla ca (bll:lc. 11111111) (.Ill. 1912) --af Clllfflllllgllllllllfun.:llonlpnMdldllJC1Nfflllllllllllllag111Cyllld by--........... (bll:lc. 11111111) (Slllt.. 1912) 2112 81:ady al llannanl l\lPlll:llllllt.....,, .. 11111111) GJ11L 1912) 2114 ldlllllf'JIIII and can1n111111....., ....... (bll:lc. 11111111) (Ja 1912) .................. IIIIIIIIIC 3171 W lllllllrm: lllaclll far 1111 flllllll (11111111) 38IO FtIIIIIYallllllflntnl __ ta,._. toClllfalllla afflllall plpllllll (lllclr. PIP") (11111111) .......................................................................... 3114 ----.......................... camplllc .. PIP") (FIii. 1812) -c:1111111a11....,.. dlllrlll:IIDI .. 11111111) -,., .................................................. ..., .......... ...... ....,......,...._ ---H590 ElalnlPowtr H590 ElalnlPowtr H580 Denlll Daugherty H580 ---H580 8111111'/ H580 KalllMIIIGW H580 Baltfllllaclc H850 ROllallllrblllR Hl45 MlclllllFMr ..,. Undlllalllltl H938 .. ,. Ml39 KNIIDapllt H937 ...Clllla H7ID JolllWIIIIIIII H789 FndWIOCI H7IO MIIQlllttlllDn H359 ~Kallnld H785 SIIMPIGIIIII N27S &llge,rtng H270 --HWI ElllnlPawlr' H580 ...., H590 KIiie ..... H590 KIiie ..... H580 ICIIIIMIIIGw H590 ICIIIIIHIIIIII H882 Hair"* H1J UndlGan:11 H774 .'!Jllll..,w M84I l'lllrJolnon H8l2 l'lllrJallllan H88Z

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I. -20-E. First Quarter 1992; Legislation with References to OTA Legislation Requiring Action By OTA Public Laws P.L. 102-172 Enacted 11/26/91 Making appropriations for the Department of Defense for Fiscal Year 1992 Requires DOD to work with OTA in conducting an examination of Israeli antiterrorism technologies. P.L. 102-190 Enacted 12/5/91 National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Years 1992 and 1993 Requires OTA to conduct a study to determine the effect of regulations issued by DOD on payment of costs of contractors for independent research and development and for bids and proposals. The regulations must be issued by April 1, 1992, and OTA's study is due no later than December 1, 1995. Bills Under consideration Senate Amendment to H.a. 3508 Engrossed November 26, 1991 Health Professions Training and Nurse Education Improvement Act Would require OTA to conduct a program evaulation of the programs, projects, and activities of DHHS to determine their effectiveness in increasing the number of prmary care providers, nurses, and allied health personnel and in improving the geographic distribution of health professionals in medically underserved and rural areas. The study (which is subject to Board approval) would be due no later than Karch 31, 1996. H.a. 3535 Introduced October 9, 1991 USHealth Program Act of 1991 Would require the Director of OTA to appoint the members of a Prescription Drug Payment Review Commission by January 1 of the year following enactment.

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-21H.R. 3603 Introduced October 22, 1991 Family Preservation Act of 1991 Would require the Director of OTA to establish an Advisory Commission on Children and Families. H.R. 3923 Introduced November 25, 1991 Would require OTA to conduct a study to develop a process for the regular review for the consideration of converage of preventive services under the medicare program, and include in the study a consideration of different types of evaluations, the use of demonstration projects to obtain data and experience, and the types of measures, outcomes, and criteria that should be used in making coverage decisions. The study (which is subject to Board approval) would be due no later than 2 years from enactment. S. 1810 Introduced October 4, 1991 Medicare Physician Payment Reform Implementation Act of 1991 Would require OTA to conduct a study of the feasibility and desirability of certain forms of payment for anesthesia. The study (which is subject to Board approval) would be due by March 1, 1993. S. 1872 Introduced October 24, 1991 Better Access to Affordable Health Care Act of 1991 See H.R. 3923 S. 1993 Reported November 21, 1991 See Senate Amendment to H.R. 3508 S. 2000 Introduced November 21, 1991 Prescription Drug Cost Containment Act of 1991 Would require the Director of OTA to appoint the initial members of a Prescription Drug Policy Review Commission by October 1, 1992, and continue to appoint them as required.

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-22-s. 2123 Introduced November 27, 1991 Right to Know More Act of 1991 Would require OTA to conduct a study of all matters relating to the provision to the public of toxic release inventory information. The study would be due within 12 months of enactment.

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-23-I. F. New Assessments Approved During the Quarter Approved at October 26, 1991 TAB meeting Proliferation of Weapons of Hass Destruction Earth Observation Systems International Differences in Health Technology Services and Economies Systems at Risk from Climate Change

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Publication Briefs

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OTA Report Brief October 1991 Improving Automobile Fuel Economy: New Standards, New Approaches The desirability of higher fuel economy standards for new cars is a central issue in an ongoing national debate about energy policy. Several bills seeking to revise the current '1.7.5 mpg standard have been introduced in the 102d Congress. Reasons for this issue's prominence include: 1) the impact of oil imports on U.S. national security, balance of payments, and greenhouse gas emissions; 2) the 39percent share of total U.S. oil consumption due to autos and light trucb; 3) the apparent success of the old fuel economy standards (new car fuel economy doubled &om 1973-90); and 4) the recent leveling off of improvements in new car fuel economy. Choosing an acceptable proposal for boosting fuel economy involves balancing national security, bal ance of payments, global warming benefits, and fuel savings to drivers, with potential negative impacts on consumers and the auto industry (limits on vehicle choice, possible safety compromises, higher vehicle prices, effects on U.S. automaker competi tiveness). Substantial controversy exists about fuel economy improvement potential and costs and rislcs of new standards, especially in the prospect of low gasoline prices. Vehicle safety effects are a particularly contentious issue. Absent new policy measures, U.S. new car fleet fuel economy is unlikely to improve significantly over the next decade, primarily because fuel costs continue to be a modest portion of total auto operating expense and because many auto buyers have responded to this fad by making fuel economy a low priority in their purchase decisions. OTA expects average new car fuel economy to reach about 29 mpg (EPA rating) by 1995 and then to grow modestly thereafter. During this time, the positive effects of increased use of existing fuel economy technologies will be offset somewhat by market trends toward larger, more powerful, and more luxurious vehicles. Under optimistic circumstances (gradually increasing gasoline prices that encourage better fuel economy technology, excellent performance &om this technology, and a leveling off of adverse market trends after 1995) but absent per formance standards, average fuel economy might reach as high as mpg by 2001, but it could easily be considerably lower. New fuel economy standards could raise these levels. Because work on 1996 model year autos has already begun, and opportunities for changes are limited, OTA believes a new fleet target for 1996 (the year targeted in legislative proposals) probably shouldn't exceed 30 mpg or so. H this value seems too modest, Congress' best strategy would be to push back the compliance date to afford automakers sufficient time to accommodate a higher target mpg. By 2001, the second target date of most new legislative proposals, the U.S. new car fleet could achieve substantially higher fuel economy levels fleet averages on the order of 35 mpg or so should be possible, though not without significant costs. And later, by about 2010, with new technologies, fleet targets of 4.5 mpg or even higher could become practical. With fleet fuel economy's dependence on consumer preferences for size and power and other factors and with different congressional views on the importance of oil savings and acceptable levels of cost and risk, there is no "best" fuel economy target Table 1 presents scenarios of fuel economy for 2001 and beyond; note that the scenario assumptions are critiail to the fuel economy results. Although most attention has focused on the issue of how high the fuel economy targets should be, the form of a new standard is just as important. The current uniform standard, because it takes no account of market segment differences among auto makers, places an unequal technical burden on each automaker. The proposed "uniform percentage in aease" approach of S. 279 (each automaker must achieve a fuel economy that is20 percent higher than his 1988 level by 1996, and 40 percent higher by 2001) bases the target on differences in market segments in 1988 but ignores post-1988 market changes, and doesn't account for intercompany variations in fuel economy technology and design in 1988. Proposed standards that base fuel economy targets on the actual (and changing) atbibutes of each company fleet-interior volume, or combina tions of interior volume, performance, and vehicle weight-offer more marketing flexibility to auto makers but are difficult for policymakers to understand, and that flexibility may allow market shifts that move away from higher fuel economy. The The Office of 'lec:hnology .Aseessment (orA) is an analytical arm of the US. Congress. ar.A's basic: function is to help legislaton anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes.

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1111N 1--sc.n.los of AutomotlW Fuel Economy Date 2D01 AaaJCt Plan at RIiing QI Price nonewpallcy lnltlatlveland no radlcal changes In martcat. but hlghsallprtcee ($1.salgalgalOllneln 1991$);alza'pel farnanca.' lu,uy ltable after 1985. tier 2 emlulana standan:11 not ODlllldlnd 32.0 mpg dornNllo 34.8 mpg Imparts 32.9 mpg fleet Maxlnun Cunent"Alcniology fwllletectlialogyaddadregardeeaofmat,si:a'perfcrmanc lu,uyralledla::k11D1987hMll,ncrmalllfecyclerec:pr81M1118 notalowed11Dllmlttechnologype1ietratlonrates,noadvanced '9rhlOloglel 37.3 mpg domeellc 38.9 mpg Imparts 38.2 mpg fleet Fleglllatary~ '9rhiology added that Is COlt-effectMt at $2.00/gal. gas (1991$) w/10.,,coetracavery, slze(perfarmancralled back ID 1980 kMII, tedlwiology penetratlan llmlted by normal llllcyde ........ no advanced tedlwaaloglN 34.5 mpg domeellc 37 .4 mpg Imparts 35.5 mpg fleet FleglllataryPreean above 31.5 mpg dornNllo 38.4 mpg Imparts 37.1 mpg fleet (38. 1 mpg w/2-atroklt) aePA ..... camblned~. pa(adlalcndllataralternatlv9fuel 'NhlclN not caialdered. S0URCE: OfflDeafTeahlOIDgr Mnf.1181;baNdan_...,.by l:Mrgy&ewinNIIIMtlllAMI,-, Inc., 1891. cboice among the various zegalatory forms deses NII considerably more attention than it bas attracted to date. The iNue of vehicle safety bas been linked to the fuel economy debate. The National Highway Traffic Safety Admim8tration (NHl'SA) bas claimed t:bat downsizing vehicles in tbe 1970s and early 19808 cost nearly 2,000 traffic fatalities per year over the number that would hoe &an kilkd bad downsizing never oc:cm:red. NHTSA warns that further downsizing caused by new standards could have a similar negative impact on safety. Rhetoric about the likely safety impacts of new standards bas ranged &om dismissive to nearly apocalyptic. The actual impacts, if any, will depend heavily on the nature of the standards and the safety agenda of the automakers and NHTSA illelf. Since subatantia1 fuel economy gains can be achieved withoatdownsizing (if 11Jfficient lead time is available), safety impacts can be preveilted by avoiding extreme mpg targets or Oftdy short sc:hedules. However, if downsizing is mceuary to achieve standards, the primary danger may be inaeased rollover acddents. mt the vehide-to-vehicle c:ollisions now at the center of attention. Design remedies such as mainte-nance of adequate trade wid~ illcreased head injury protection, and anti.lock brakes to reduce the chance of vehicles leaving the road can reduce rollover danger. If allowable lead times for standard compliance are too short, safety redesigns will not be completed in time to compensate for the need to aell smaller can, and safety will be compromised. The relation between safety, fuel economy,~ weight, and other automotive parameters is more complex than most of the high-visibility arguments have made it out to be, and merits additional thoughtful consideration. Copia of the ,qort for amgraaion,,l ,_ tiff IIDIUllble by arlling 4-9241. Copie,of the Npo,t fornon-a,ngrmional w am '1e on/am from the s~ of Docutnoata, u.s. Gowinn.uat Printing Offia, Nrsllington, DC 20402-9325 (202) 783-.3238. The GPO smd nranbr for the OTA ,qort, '7nqnwinlS NdomobileFua 'Et:tmlmry. Nnl Sltmdlmls,Nt:111 Approt,cha," i, 052-oo3-0l2621. T7u, prit:c ii $5.50. S""'11111ria of rq,orts tn IDlilalM Ill no dm-ge from the Offia of 'lkhnology Ass snrent.

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Ci) OTA Report Brief October 1991 New Ways: Tiltrotor Aircraft and Magnetically Levitated Vehicles Magnetically levitated (maglev) vehicles and tilt rotor aircraft are among the new technologies that could improve passenger mobility in aowded inter city travel corridors less than 500 miles long. Congress has supported military tiltrotor programs and research into maglev technologies, although budget constraints have threatened this funding annually. Both tiltrotor and maglev will be expensive to develop and estab~ and significant additional Federal support will be necessary if either technology is to have a substantial role in U.S. intercity passenger service. Maglev vehicles, which resemble monorail cars or sleek trains, are lifted and propelled above special guideways by magnetic forces and are capable of traveling at top speeds of more .than 300 miles per hour. Maglev designs promise faster speeds, quiclcer acceleration, the ability to ascend steeper grades, less noise, and better energy efficiency than rail at similar high speeds. T'iltrotor aircraft can fly like both a helicopter and an airplane. Pivoting engine/rotor assemblies permit a tiltrotor to take off and land at sites as small as the roof of a parking garage. When the rotors are tilted forward, the tiltrotor can cruise as fast as a propeDer-driven commuter airplane. T'iltrotors would be capable of flying to conveniently located landing areas without runways or of providing feeder flights to airports where runway capacity is saturated. Maglev and tiltrotor have several policy issues in common: they would serve similar intercity markets, expand domestic transportation capacity, com pete with Western European and Japanese technolo gies, and both face institutional and community barriers (see table). The major differences between maglev and tiltrotor, aside from specific technolo gies and safety requirements, stem from infrastruc ture and vehicle economics. To serve equivalent markets, tiltrotor aircraft would cost significantly more to operate than mag1ev vehicles. However, mstalling and maintaining the necessary infrastruc ture would cost substantially more for maglev. Magin and tiltrotor concq,ts an technically feasible. The military V-'12 Osprey tiltrotor design is presently going through preproduction tests. GovPholocredlt: AG ernment-supported maglevresearch programs have long been under way abroad and a Germandesigned,Japanese-financed maglev systen:Lis slated to operate on a 14-mile route in Orlando, Florida, by 1995. Some fonn of Federal fi,umcing will be required if COffllllffCial nuigleo or tiltrotor technologies are to be deoelopcd by U.S. in4ust,y in the next decade. Public and private. investment totaling over $1 billion is requued to develop tiltrotor or a new maglev to the point of being commercially viable. Establishing regional service, such as in the Northeast United States, would cost even more. Given the economic uncertainties, private industry and investors in the United States are not yet willing to commit the substantial funds needed to develop either technology without the assurance of Federal help. If Federal funding is prm,ided for moestigating or deoeloping either technology, the near-term options range from small research programs of $5 to $10 million annually to demonstration and implemen-The Office of 'Jl!c:hnology As8esament (orA) is an analytical ann of the US Congress. OTA's basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes.

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lauN and Requirements for Operatlonal Magin or Tlltrotor Systems 'lllchnology dn9lopmMt lllltary V-22 pragram experience; reduced nolle, IINpfllghtpathll. andcackpit dellgrl tradaoffL lnfralruclul9 Canvlnlenlly located landing areas; suitable air trafflcccmn,I facllltlea, iautN, pracacuee, and Debate nwolllee arOWld whether to d8velop new U.S.deelgnsardevelaporbuyforelgnconcepll. Available and affordable rights-of-way; dedicated guldeways, electrlflcatlon and other lnfrallructln. aqulpnw& l.agll and envl.......-.111 NGIN ltandlrdl; local zanng. Conlbuctlan ffllthodl; cl8valop mare precise canatructlan and operating COit data; CDfflllU1lty and pasaangs acceptance. No Federal pollcy hu been eatabllahed forfundklg maglev QI" hlgh-apeed rail techi1ology dlvelapnnt or lnfrutrucbn. Not yet daYelaped the Federal Railroad Admlniltratlan la-..,g the applcablllty al current statutes and "egl~ for maglev and Meiap(ng waiverl, guidellnel, and paalbly newrwgulatlans. NGIN cblng high apeedl; right-of.way; heafth effacll of electnxnaglietlc f1elda. Compelltlw framework .AlrllM cooperation la 1111ntlal far tlltrolars ID opana. lndlvlcialaldlnN ... welNbltllllhed operatlona In lhart ta,I marlC8la and Ne no beneffl:a In tllbOIDrL Alrtlne markatlng paws could be an aaet ar an amt,.. ID Intercity maglev. Amtrak haa authartty for moat routa proposed for paaaiger rnaglev or hlgh-apeed ralL tation asistaa acadiag $50 to $100 millima pa yar. In 1990, a 2-year Pederal program called the National Mag1ff Initiative (NMI) was crated to ewluate tbe engineering, economic, eavb:oaaientaJ, and safety :resean:h needs for a U.S. maglev syatem. Sustained funding through a,mpletion of NMrs initial phase will be needed if tbe NMI team is to denlop the inbmation Congress must have to decide Oil future Pederal support for maglev. The Federal Aviation .Administration (PAA) and NASA have Jaw-level programs in place to enhance the saiety am:I cmmmmity accept.we of tiltrotms and other VTOL aircraft that a,uJd be accelerated if made a priority. A Federal dedaion for Jarge,ale testing and demomtrationi& vnJike.tyto 1ead to wide implementation of a U.S. maglev technology without a compJemeatary po1k:y to help establish maglev illfrutradme. On the other hand, Federal policies and a dedicated fonding aource, the Airport and Airway Trmt Pund, c:ouJd help establish ti1trotor illfrutradme. hdatd llg,,u:ia TDill ftu:a ""'1itioul ovasiglst -,wpltdory ,espoaibilitia--Mfdy. oa,iro,anrmt,u, :tnUnnic--t1u ""'" ,,. srq,portl if ,ugln, tiltrator, or othr similllr sylfafs ae 11ltu:etl ifl saoia. FAA is well positioned to certify a V-22for civilian test and demomtration purpcaea by 1995 if a spomor requesta it and aircraft are avaiJable, because it bu wodrai cloeely with DOD to collect data from the V-22 flight test program. The p: aentFederalRailmad.Admmistration(PRA) safety and reguJatory framework or c:osmmtiom1 railroads cannot be applied direc:t:ly to maglev or high-speed rail, and FRA's technical Gld regulatory expertise in these areas needs farther bolatering. Tilt,otor llllfl nu,gln systo,g 'IDOUW cq,flllll tlornatk tnrnsportatio,I aq,tU:ity, htno conscnsu msts OIi tM atat to TDltidl thy TDOUld reline /ufwe co,agatio,s or lflllll-use, or 111fffY co,u:au, nor OIi th public policies for tuldnssing t1tae ,roblems. Thus, at present, the broad effects of operating maglev or tiltrotar systems are unclear. Co,of the rqo,t for congrasional w tin tmdlt,l,k by auling 4-9241. Co,of the rqo,t fornn-amg'IWiontll warn Z. orrJawl. from the Sup,rintortlort of 'Doctanenta, U.S. Guw.,w.ent Prlnling Of/it%, Wrshington, DC 20402-9325 (202) 783-3238. The GPO llodc nranbcr for the OTA ,q,o,t, '"Na, Wlys: 7'ilmar Ain:tajt tmtl Mligntttia,lly Ltoittltal Vdsida," ia 052-oo.,..oJ256-l. The ,na ia $3.75. For ft,,rthu inpmotiun anrllu:t OTA's Nliomona Offia. M""-: OTA, U.S. Cong,a,, Wrshington, DC 2051.0-8025 (202) 224-8996.

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OTA Report Brief October 1991 Biotechnology in a Global Economy Biotechnologr-both as a scientific art and com mercial entify'-is less than 20 years old. In that period of time, however, it has revolutionized the way scientists view living matter and has resulted in research and development (R&D) into products that can dramatically improve human and animal health, the food supply, and the quality of the environment (see box A). Still, many early prognostications about biotechnology, seen in retrospect, were premature. To date, most U.S. biotechnology companies have no sales and have been losing money since their inceptions. Products have not been developed and marketed as quiclcly as previ ously thought possible, and many scientific and public policy issues remain unsettled. OTA fi11ds that two prerequisites are necessary for a nation to fully compete in biotechnology: a strong resea,rch base, and the industrial climate to convert the basic research into products. By these measures, the United States remains preeminent in biotechnol ogy, with strong research programs (primarily in biomedicine), well-established pharmaceutical and agricultural industries, and resources of venture capital and public financing that made possible the aeation of hundreds of dedicated biotechnology companies (DBCs). U.S. patent law provides generous ~on for all kinds of biotechnology derived inventions, and laws and regulations to protect the public health and environment are largely in place. The =tiveness of U.S.-developed biotechnology and processes may ultimately depend on broad issues, e.g., protection of intellectual property, the regulatory climate, tax policies, and fair trade practices. The competitiveness of U.S. innwtltion, however, could very well rely on the ability of biotechnology companies to stay in business. Because biotechnology is capital-intensive, staying in business means raising substantial sums of cash. Startup companies' fundamental need for cash, coupled with the desire of venture capitalists to profit from the aeation of high-value-added products based on cutting-edge technology have led to the financial community's substantial involvement in the formation of DBCs. Biotechnology companies had little trouble raising cash in the early 1980s, but several factors, including the 1987 stock BO% A-What Is Biotechnology? Biotechnology is not an industry. It is, instead, a set of biological tecluuques developed through decades of basic research that is now being applied to research and product development in several existing industrial sectors (e.g., pharmaceuticals, therapeutial,agric:ulture,hazardouswastecleanup). The term ''biotechnology'' means different things to different people. A broad definition encompasses both new biological tools as well as ancient uses of selecting organisms for improving agriculture, animal husbandly, or brewing. A second, more narrow definition refers to "MW'' biotechnology: the industrial use of recombinant DNA, cell fusion, and novel bioproc:essing techniques. It is the development and usesof thls new biotechnology that has captured the imagination of scientists, financiers, policymalcers, journalists, and the public. As earlier reports, OTA uses the term "biotechnology," unless otherwise specified, to refer to new biotechnology. market aash, have tightened the availability of venture capital financing. As DBCs attempt to move toward development, testing, and marketing of products (the expensive steps in creating biotech nology-derived products), other forms of financing (e.g., limited partnerships, secondary public offer ings, strategic alliances, consolidation) are likely to occur. Currently, there is insufficient evidence to state that foreign acquisition threatens U.S. commercial interests in biotechnology. As U.S. DBCs move closer to product reality, however, foreign corpora tions with large pools of cash may be more willing to pursue acquisition in order to assure manufactur ing rights. Commercial Activity Although the arrival of products has been slower than expected, the development of biotechnologybased pharmaceutical products is flourishing. To date, 15 biotechnology-based drugs and vaccines are on the market, over 100 are in the various stages of human clinical testing, and many new products are in the pipeline. Revenues in the United States from biotechnology-derived products were esti mated to be approximately $1.S billion in 1989, and $2 billion in 1990. Both DBCs and established, multinational pharmaceutical companies are utiliz-The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) is an analytical arm of the US Congress. OTA's basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes.

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ing the tools and techniques of biotechnology in their drug development efforts. Although biotechnology will not fundamentaUy change the structure of the pharmaceutical industry, it ia likely to be the principal scientific: driving !orce for the discovery of new drugs and therapeutic chemical entities u the industry enters the 21st centmy. The unpad of biotechnology in other industrial secton ia mixed. In agriculture, biotechnology has the potential to inaeue yields, to lower the cost of agricultural inputs, and to contribute to the development of new high-value-added products to meet the needs of ccmsumen and food proc:euors. Potential products illdude seecls, pestiddes, veterinary diagnoetia and therapeutics, food additives, food proc essing enzymes, more nutritious foods, and crops with improved food processi:,g 411aHties-Thus far, RlcI> has focwled on crops and traits that are easiest to manipu)ate, paJticuJa1iy propenies that are controlled by single genes in certain vegetable crops. The potentw profit from new agricultural products depends on a variety of fadon, such u the size of the market, competition with substitutes, rates at which new products and tedmoJogies are adopted, potential for repeat sales using patent or tec:bnical protection,regu)atory hurdles, and amsumer acceptance of new food& Biotecbnology bu ,. limited, though varied, role in chemical production. Produdl e.g., chemicals produced by femieatation md enzymes with al tered cbaraderistict-probably be developed and introduced by major firms without the fanfare that bu aa:ompanied other bioteclmology developments and, like much of cbembl prodw:tion, will remain unknown to tboee outside the industry. The chemical industry's greatest UN of biotedmology may be the result of the industry's expmding investment in pharmaceuticals and agriculture. Thia reB.ecta the industry's shift away from the produc tion of bulk chemicals and toward investment in ~, high-value-added products, the worldwide iDdustry response to oil shocks, recessions, and increasing competition. A:Jthough ~logy _bu ~tential emrm1aNMtaJ~po)hmana:m-tral,mining,andmirmbiallyenhancednilrea,wryamunac:ial activity to dateisminuac:ule. Bioremedi atian, efforts to use biotedmologyforwastecleanup, bu received public attention because of the uae of naturally oa:uning miao-gacrisms in oil-spill cleanups, but the scientific, economic, regulatory, and public perception barriers to use of bioengineered organisms that were apparent a decade ago still exist. Commerdal uae of such OJ"SM'isms (or environmental cleanup is not likely for the near future. bulutritd Policy The U.S. Government bu made 110 deliberate attempt to influence the level and composition of the Natiods industrial output related to bioteclmology. '8rious Federal agencies have formulated policies to encourage growth, innovation, and capital forma tion in all high-tec:lmology industries, but have not drastically changed their practices for bioteclmology. Companies wishing to c:ommerdalize biotechnology products confront many of the same regu)atory, intellec:tual property, and trade policies faced by other U.S. high-technology firms. Developed primarily in U.S. laboratories, many applications of biotechnology are now viewed by compames and governments around the world es esaential for economic growth in several different industries. In general, countries that have targeted biotechnology for government support and encouragement (e.g., Japan,Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan) emphame export-driven In the United States and much of Burope, m contrast, growth promotion is less prnminent and is one of many CO.npem.i& social amcems. The development of regn)atiom 1-8 likewise varied; several Pacific Rim natkms have not developed regu1atiom specifically dealing 1-Yith bioteclmology. Some European countries (e.g., Denmark and Germany) have responded to public pressure to impose laws and regulations specific to biotedmology. Australia, Brazil, France, Japan, The Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States allow the use of biotechnology with some restridions and oversight. Intellectual property law, which provides for ownership of the work of the mind, fosters new mventions. U.S. patent law ia the broadest and most imentor-geneEous statute in the world; in addition to processes. patents have now been issued for miaobes, plants, and, in one instance, a transgenic animal Harmolrivtion. of international patent law Joomsu=challengefor(Oll'llJlffo daJizing ed proc:esaes and prod ucts. Seven policy issues relevant to U.S. competitiveness in biotechnology were identified during the coune of this study. They are: Pederal funding for biotedmology research, bugeting biotechnology development, development of regulations, COOldination of Pederal agencies, intellectual propaty protection, industry-univenity relationships, and tax polides-0,,-of the ,qort for congra,,iontd ,,. 11n llfMUllbk 1,y adlinf 4-9241. Co,-of the ,qort for non-congra,,iontd w am aruntl from the s~ of Doaanorts, u.s. GowilUIIOlt Printing Offia, Narldngton, DC 20402-9325 (202) 783--3238. T7lt GPO ,tad: naonbafor the OTA ,qort, "Biottdrnology in Glolm Eamtnny," ii 052~8-8. The pria ii $13.00. T7lt GPO ,tad: naonbafor the SfltfffflafY ii 052-Q03-01.259-o. n. ,ra i, $1.75. For f,lrthll iRfo,nwtim amllld OTA' Publiamona 0/fb. Mdnm: OTA. U.S. Cong,a,, Washington, DC 2051o-B025 (202) 224-8996.

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OTA Report Brief October 1991 U.S. Oil Import Vulnerability: The Technical Replacement Capability With declining domestic oil production and in creasing demand, the United States faces a future of still greater dependence on imported oil. In 1990 imports supplied 42 percent of U.S. oil needs-7.1 million barrels per day (MMB/D) out of total consumption of 16.9 MMB/D. In less than 20 years, many experts predict that America could be dependent on foreign sources for almost three quarters of its oil. Because oil use remains pervasive and deeply rooted in America's economy and way of life, U.S. dependence on oil imports is of increasing concern. Major and prolonged import (or price) disruptions would bring hardship and deprivation.Historically, even small supply disruptions have triggered dis proportionate economic impacts-the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo and the 1979 Iranian Revolution contnb uted to drops in U.S. real gross national product of 27 and 3.6 percent, respectively. But rising import dependence alone does not translate into a serious threat to energy security. Import vulnerability arises out of the degree and nature of import dependence, the potential harm to the economic and social welfare of a severe disrup tion in physical supplies or prices, its duration, and the lilcelihood of such a disruption occurring. Along with diversifying world petroleum production, and maintaining a viable domestic oil industry, the availability of technologies to replace interrupted or lost imports helps offset the risks of growing dependence on foreign oil and reduces import vulnerability. The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait renewed concerns over U.S energy security. While the United States is less dependent on Middle Eastern sources than Europe or Japan, the global nature of the oil trade and international oil sharing agreements assure that any 'shutoff of Persian Gulf oil will ultimately be reflected in U.S. oil supplies and prices. What could the United States do if events forced an import cutoff that lasted for more than just a few months as in past disruptions? The Strategic Petroleum Reserve, targeted at short-duration disruptions, would quicldy be exhausted in a prolonged, major disruption. These concerns prompted the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee to request that OTA update the estimates contained in the 1984 report, U.S. Vulneraln1ity to an Oil Import Curtailment: The Oi1 Replacement Capability. The 1984 OTA study, which assumed a loss of 3 MMB/D in U.S. oil imports for 5 years, is one of very few that have looked at technologies for responding to a severe, long-lasting oil import disruption. It found that an aggressive program of fuel switching, alternative fuels, conservation, and efficiency measures could replace 3.6 MMB/D, exceeding the shortfall by a sizable margin of safety. But achieving this goal was not cheap or easy. U.S. and world oil market conditions have changed in the 7 years since the first OTA study. A comparable oil disruption scenario set in 1991roughly equivalent to loss of Persian Gulf production-would involve a loss of 5 MMB/D of U.S. oil imports for at least 5 years. However, aggressive deployment of available oil displacement technolo gies over 5 years could replace only about 29 MMB/D of lost imports. The margin of safety in oil replacement technical potential found in 1984 has vanished. Moreover, the expected continuing de cline in domestic crude oil production (resulting in a loss of 0.1 to 1 MMB/D by 1995) reduces the effective net import replacement capability to from 1.7 to 28 MMB /D. Instead of being able to replace lost imports, the United States now comes up short, even after expensive oil replacement technologies have been deployed aggressively. Reliance on oil replacement technologies alone is no longer sufficient to offset the threat of a major and prolonged oil supply disruption. OTA found opportunities for use of oil replacement technologies in all sectors of the economy as shown in the accompanying figure. In the residential and commercial sectors, switch ing to natural gas, electricity, coal, and renewable energy could replace much of the oil now used for space and water heating. Improving the efficiency of the remaining oil-burning equipment could boost total oil savings to about 1 MMB /D. In the electric utilities sector, fuel switching, load shifting, replacing oil-fired generation with natural gas, coal, nuclear, and renewable fuels, and acceler-The Office of 'Ii!chnology .Assessment (orA) is an analytical arm of the US. Congress. OTA's basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes.

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U.S. 011 Replacement Potential 'llchnlcal C8pablllty by Sector, 1991 3.5. IMlllon barrela of oil per day a.~---------1 2.s.~------c 2.+-----1.5. +------: ......,-,,_.,c:/:?:It\'';;c;;; 1. 0.4. } o. 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Tranaportatlon n,,, .. ,., lnduetrlal 11111 Electric utllltlea ReaidentlaJ/ commen:tal SOUACE:aftcecrlT..-.-.Aa111111*11, 1111. ateddemand side management could displace about 600,000 barrels per day (B/D). The industrial aector could cut oil use by about 800,000 B/D through reduced refmery fuel use, switching or converting industrial boilers to natural gas, coal, renewable fuels, or electricity, substituting alternative industrial feedstoc:b where feasible, and implementing oil-saving prccesa c:banges and effidmxy improvements. The transportation sector, tbe largest oil user, is tbe least flexible-in the short ta~ displacing oil. Nevertbelesa, short-term gains in fuel -economy in light-duty vehicles, shifts to alternative motor :vemcle fuels, and improved traffic management could yield an average savings of 555,000 B/D witbin5years. Substantially higher prices following an import cutoff would also be likely to spur additional domestic oil and gas exploration and production. The ll108t attractive near-term opportunities for maintaining or inaeaaing production are continuing development in known fields, accelerating enhanced oil 'teCOVf!r/, bringing shutin or marginal wells into production. and limiting premature well abmdonment. At best, these near-term gaim in oil production can be expecmd to stem the continuing decline in domestic crude output. While there is amaiderable certainty tbat natural gas production could be inaaured rather quickly to meet new demand, capacity c:onstrainta in the i:utast.ate gas pipeline systems and in local distribution and storage networJcs could limit the use of gas to replace oil. Much can be done to counter tbe deeply disturbing projected growth of oil import dependence, but even with relatively heroic meuuns the United States faces a future of high dependence OD imports. No single technology will eliminate oil import dependence and there are DO quic1c fixes to OUI' growing oil import vulnerability. Any significant shift away from oil products cannot be accomplished quickly and may entail substantial capital investment and adjustments in consumer prefer ences and lifestyles. An effective approach will a combination of oil replacement initiatives with other energy and environmental policy measures. OTA presents two strategies for promoting the adoption of oil replacement technologies: 1) replacing oil use in a severe import disruption and 2) reducing oil import vulnerability as part of longtam national energy policy objectives. Both strategies rely on many of tbe same oil replacement technologies and policy initiatives. One critical difference is that some policy options and technologies have fewer implementation problems and offer greater oil savings if adopted as part of a long-term oil replacement strategy rather than as part of a aisis-driven strategy. The prospect of continuing oil import vuJnerabil ity confronts tbe United States with three choices: waiting until a disruption occurs before decid ing OD an appropriate response; anticipating that disruptions will occur and setting in place effective meuuns that enhance OUI' ability to replace tbe lost oil; or crafting a more comprehensive national energy strategy that embraces a Jong-term goal of limiting OUl'reliam:e on oil and other fossil.fuels and does so consistent with other national ..,..u,_ob' ti r--~ ,a: ves. Whichever path is chosen, success in recludng U.S. oil bnportvuJnerability will require a strong Federal example, and the sustained support and cooperation of citizens, bl1siness, and govemment. 0,,of the ,,port for amsrmioMl. ,_ ll1fl trmiltull. by Ollling 4-9241. 0,,of the ,,port for non-amsaidonol,,. am be on/owl from the S,q,ainto,dmt of 'Doaanads, U.S. Gooenunent Pritrting Offia, Wrshinpm, DC 20402-9325 (202) 783-3238. The GPO stock number for the OTA rqort, '11.S. Oil Import Vulnarlbiluy: The Ttdrniad Rqltament Oq,,rbility," ia tm-om-ol26I-8. The ,ma is $8.00. Srannrrrria of rqorts,,,. llf1fli1obl.ano d,arp from the Offia ofThnology Asircssmat. For furt1-, info,nillltion conttu:t OTA' Pllliliaztiom Offia. Addnss: OTA, U.S. Cong,a,, Wrshinpm, DC 205Io-8025 (202) 224-8996.

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OTA Report Brief October 1991 Competing Economies: America, Europe, and the Pacific Rim American manufacturing faces a competitive aisis that could depress the performance of the economy as a whole. The numbers that describe economic performance show clearly that American manufacturers in a wide range of industries, including many high-technology industries, are losing ground to foreign competitors. The most formidable competition comes from Japanese manufacturers, who will probably continue to gain market share at the expense of both American and European firms. Improving competitiveness requires meeting the test of world markets while maintaining or expand ing the real incomes of workers. Over the past two decades, the United States has done neither. Our share of world imports climbed from less than 13 percent in 1970 to 17.S percent in 1986, while our share of world exports dwindled from nearly 14 percent to just over 10 percent. American goods lost ground domestically too. Imports, which claimed 4 percent of U.S. gross national product in 1970, accounted for nearly 9 percent in 1990. At the same time, the living standards of more than 80 percent of American families dropped. All of this happened while the dollar's international trading value fell to a post-World War II low, making U.S. goods comparatively cheaper but reducing the living standards of American workers and consumers. Japanese manufacturers, in contrast, have im. proved world market shares in most industries and maintained their dominance of the Japanese domes tic market, while Japanese living standards have risen at an enviable rate. All this was done as the yen rose. While it would be foolish to blindly duplicate the policies of other nations, no matter how success ful, there are some things to be learned from Japan, and from Korea and Taiwan, which have also managed impressive records of industrial and tech nological development One lesson is that some industries, because of their knowledge intensity, significant economies of scale, and pervasive impact on technological per formance in other sectors, contribute more to economic well-being than others. Many nations have targeted such high-technology sectors for special support and development assistance. While there have been some failures, the successes have been instrumental in fostering high-value industries, rais ing national living standards, and promoting eco nomic growth. Another key is competition. Some nations that have unimpressive results in promoting key indus tries erred in shielding national champions too much from competition. Although some protection from established foreign firms might be justifiable, even a weak infant industry needs the challenge of competing, in some market, with the best firms. While heavily protected in their domestic markets, Japanese, Korean, and Taiwanese firms have been strongly encouraged (if not forced) to compete in export markets as a condition of domestic assistance. In contrast, some European national champi ons have never been adequately exposed to some degree of competition. In the United States, too often government and industry seem to be adversaries. But in fast developing nations, government and industry work as partners to develop aitical industries in the face of foreign dominance. In most successful industrial nations, public and private actors cooperate to develop public policies that favor, rather than frustrate, long-term growth and technological improvement. This means making capital available for industrial development on terms that favor sus .tained investment in research and development and in improving manufacturing quality and efficiency. It also means providing high-quality human re sources through excellent education and competent training; aeation of a system for diffusing technolo gies to small and medium-sized enterprises; and emphasis on fostering long-term, stable relation ships between industrial customers and suppliers all along the chain of production. It sometimes includes protection from dominant foreign competitors. None of the above policies alone has been capable of providing the necessary conditions to promote aitical industries. In nations with the best records of industrial development government, labor, and business leaders all pursue manufacturing excel lence using a variety of actions and policies. Trade protection, in particular, is not a stand-alone fix. Where it has been successful for industrial promotion, it has been only one part of a more comprehen-The Office of 'D!clmology Assessment (Ol'A) is an analytical arm of the US Congress. Ol'A's basic function is to help legislators anticipate and pJan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes.

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sive strategy. Used alone, or as part of an fil-coordinated sb:ategy that lacks commitment from public and private sectors, it is more lilcely to harm competitiveness than to help. This report examines the records of many at tempts at industrial promotion in the United States and abroad. Several c:asee-development of the large c:ommerdal aircraft industry in the United States, Europe, and Japan; Japanese policies to promote a domestic supercomputer industry; devel opment of the automobile and semiconductor industries in Ja~ Korea, and Taiwan-are examinedin greater detail. Case studies show that careful, well-planned strategies that have public and private support have been successful in improving competi tiveness. The report examines a range of policy options for Congress to consider. Measures to aeate a more technology-friendly business environment include actions that lower aapital costs (particularly for long-term investment in technology development), improve the education and training of engineers and scientists, and diffuse technology to small and medium-med businesses. The report explores how government and industry could share the financial risks of developing risky but potentially high reward technologies. Finally, the report examines how Federal institutions could be adapted to take a more proactive, strategic approach to trade and other policies that affect industrial competitiveness. Copia of t1u: rqo,t fr,r congrasional use an amilabk by colllng 4-9241. Copia oft'-rqo,t fr,r non-amgrasional use am be ordenll frtnn t1u: Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Gawmment Printing Offia, Washington, DC 20402-9325 (202) 783-3238. T1w GPO stDdc raanbtlr for the OTA rqo,t, "eam,.ting l:conomia: Amaiaz, Em,,pe,and t'-Pacific Rbn," is 052-oo.3-01.260--0. T1w -pria is $17.00. SUfflfflllt'io of rqorts an 11111rilabk at no dlllrge frtnn the Offia of Technology Asscssnrfflt. For fvrt1u:r in{t,multitm contad OTA's Publialtions Offia. Atldtas: OTA, U.S. Congress, Wuhington, DC 20510-8025 (202) 224-8996.

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(I) OTA Report Brief November 1991 ''Small is Beautiful." The truth of that statement is debated in economic and socioJogical circles, but when it a:,mes to technology, there is no debate; small is beautiful because small is fast, small is cheap, and small is profitable. The revolution begun by e1ectronics miniaturization during World War n is continuing to change the world and has spawned a revolution in miniaturized sensors and miaomechanical deYices. Mmiatmization plays a major role in the tec:hnica1 and ecxmomic rivalry between the United States and its competitors. It translates to market share and competitive advantage for many commercial and scientific products. Those companies and nations that can successfully develop and capitalize on miniaturization developments will reap handsome rewards. Personal computers, portable radios, and camcorden are examples of products that aeated massive new markets through miniatum.ation: they added billions of dollars to the gross national product of countries where they were designed and built. The United States remains strong in research and dnelapment in miniaturization technologies, al though the lead O'Der other nations is less sub stantial than it has been in the past. U.S. researchers continue to innovate and pro duceworld-leading research despite strong research programs in Japan and :Europe. There are some areas where Japanese or European research sur passes the United States in quantity and in a few cases in quality as well. But on the whole, U.S. researchers lead in miniaturization technology R&D. The danger is that U.S. companies will lag other nations in implementing advanced technologies, especially when new technology is driven by a product or market dominated by another nation's industry. The trends in silicon electronics miniaturization shaw no signs of slowing in the near future. Around the year 2000 the current pace of minia turization will produce memory chips (dynamic random access memory, DRAM) with a billion transistors and the capacity to store 1 billion bits (1 gigabit) of information. This compares to today's most dense memory chips, which have about 4 million transistors and hold 4 million bits (4 megabits) of information. Transistors will continue to shrink until the smallest feature is aroum 0.1 micron (one-ten millionth of a meter or four-millionths of an inch). For comparison, today's most advanced massproduced integrated circuits have features as small as 0.8 microns. A human hair is SO to 100 microns in width. Achieving such tiny features will require a huge engineering and research effort. New fab rication equipment and processing techniques must be developed, pushing the cost of chip fabrication plants to over $1 billion, compared to hundreds of millions of dollars for a current state-of-the-art plant. It is likely that despite the high costs, chips having features around 0.1 micron will be manufac tured. However, progress beyond the era of 0.1micron transistors is uncertain because of funda mental physical limits. The technology of semiconductor manufacturing is being applied ta other fields ta create new capabilities. Sensors created with semiconductor nuun,jacturing technology hold the promise of 'I.DWspread applications O'Der the next 10 years. The Office of 'leclmology Assessment (orA) is an analytical arm of the US. Congress. arA's basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of tec:lmological changes.

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Miaolliecbanicalsemonforpressureandaccelera timhawusedsea1iawvludmmar111factnringtedmology for aeveral decades now, but recent hmovationa allow further greater flexibility, and tibility with lldaoelectrcmic A wider range7 aenson can DOW be fabricated using micromec:ballic structures. Bioeenaon and chemi cal aemon that can detect gases and cbernic:aJs 'Vi.th extraordinary sensitivity are being perfected using integrated circuit manufacturing fec1miques and will be uaed in medical, food procealing, and chemical p-ocessing ~pplications. Since hundreds or tbouaanda can be created OD a single wafer, the economics of microe1ec:troni fabdcation will make these new sensors cheap and ubiquitous. Integrating m with electronics pmmiees to inaease the ftl'llldilityoimforCXIIISUDll!l',mecff,;:me,autmnotives, aerospace, and robotics markets. Raetlf'd& in IIUUfflllls tllUl nrfaa sciflla is critical to further abllnCOIOlt of 11ll minitituri%11titm thnologia. In every miniatmization technology &om siliam miaoe1ec:trcmic to quantum elect:ronks, to mic:romechanics and biosenson-bett:er understanding of materials and surface interactions will be a c:ritic:a1 part of further advancement of the tecbnoJogy. Better understanding of manufacturing proceaees will be nec1911ary to make futme generations of miniaturized searicanducton. Making practical bioeemon and cbemic:aJ m will require better understanding of how to bond molecuJes to surfaa!S. Pn>gre98 in mia"cm-ecbanics will depend on how well thP mec:banic,al Uld surface propelties of materials like siliam are understood. Resolving problems in quantum electronics and molecular a,mputing-the frontier of electronics miniaturi-zation-are highly dependent OD improved un derstanding and elegant control of materials and surfaces. Basic research on material propen:ies and --~-;,.,-.,..;.....,._____,.._.;,..n .. 0 nductor -------t--.1 m senncon processing and manufacturing--be necessary for further mimatmization in many tecbnoJogy areas. Ptu:lcaging is playing an int:naingly larger roZ. in miniatlm.Zlltitm of elet:tnmics. Trends in miniaturization are creating pressure in the electronics industry to improve packaging: 1. the proliferation. of electronics into portable devices, consumer electronics, automobiles, and induatrial applications will force more compad and rugged pacbging; 2. miniatmization causes transistors to operate faster, forcing better packaging to avoid excessive signal delay from chip to chip; and 3. u the costs of integrating more and more transiston onto a piece of silicon increase, a1temative ways to integrate transistors into a single paclcage, such u multi-chip modules and surface mount technologies, will become more attractive. o,pi,, of the rqort for amgrasiont,l ,_ 11n lll10ilobk 1ly t:lllling 4-9241. Copie, of the ,qort for non-amgrmiontll ""arn h ordenll from the S,q,,rlntortlent of Doaanent,, U.S. GowllUIIIOd Printing Offia, Wlshington, DC 20402-9325 (202) 783-3238. 77re GPO ,tact ffllllUIO' for the OTA rqort, ''Minitlturi:mti 'Jklmolopa," 052--00S-Ol2Gl-7. 771, pria ia $3.25. For,,,,,,_ info,martion andtld OTA', Publiadions 0/fia. .4dtlna: OTA, U.S. Conrn-, Wlshington, DC 205lD-8025 (202) 224-8996.

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Selected News Clips on OTA Publications and Activities The following is a representative sample (about 2.5 percent) of the clippings received during the last quarter. These clippings refer to 16 different OTA publications. Members of Congress participated in the public release of 8 of the 13 publications issued this quarter. OTA ASSESSMENT REPORTS Miniaturization Technologies The FBI Fingerprint Identification Automation Program: Issues and Options Competing Economies: America, Europe, and the Pacific Rim The 1992 World Administrative Radio Conference (WARC 1992) HIV in the Health Care Workplace Biotechnology in a Global Economy U.S. Oil Import Vulnerability: The Technical Replacement Capability Improving Automobile Fuel Economy: New Standards, New Approaches New Ways: Tiltrotor Aircraft and Magnetically Levitated Vehicles Biological Rhythms: Implications for the Worker Redesigning Defense: Planning the Transition to the Future U.S. Defense Industrial Base Global Arms Trade: Commerce in Advanced Military Technology and Weapons Delivering the Goods: Public Works Technologies, Management and Financing OTA BACKGROUND PAPERS Dioxin Treatment Technologies Medical Monitoring and Screening in the Workplace: Results of a Survey Coping With an Oiled Sea

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j case, where many have argued that Balti more's accused colleague, Thereza ImanishiKari of Tufts University, was treated un fairly. In June 143 scientists, including some eminent immunologists, wrote to OSI com plaining that the agency had done serious harm to Imanishi-Kari's right to defend her self by failing to give her an opportunity to confront witnesses and review evidence against her and by withdrawing her funding before issuing a verdict. "'It is fundamental-you have to know what you're accused of and the details," says University of Massachusetts Medical School geneticist David Parker, a co-organizer of the letter-writing campaign on Imanishi Kari's behalf. "'Otherwise it gets very Kafkaesque." At the least, Parker argues, scientists are entitled to the same rights that they would have in the criminal court system-the right to an attorney, to know details of the charges, to confront the ac cuser during the "trial" or before it. The OSI, however, has taken on a model based on academic committees that investi gate misconduct or review tenure disputeswhere the aim is to get at the truth of the scientific dispute without letting the ac cused confront the accusers or even neces sarily examine the entire body ofincriminating evidence. After a long debate, the advi sory committee recommended retaining the current system, but modifying it slightly to allow scientists a hearing before a final judgment is made on their cases. Those actions left scientists encouraged. "'We're very pleased the committee has shown they're sensitive to these issues," says University of Florida biochemist Robert Cousins, who is director ofFASEB. But he noted that the committee stopped short of allowing scientists to learn the identity of the witness who made the accusations. And it postponed discussion until its next meeting of another sore point for researchersthe "Alert" system at NIH that prevents accused scientists from obtaining public funds while they are under investigation. Which leads to the burning question on most peoples' minds: Will these recommen dations be adopted by the PHS? And if so, when? Bivens says a draft report on OSIR's decision about the new recommendations should be ready by the committee's next meeting in March. "The downer is it looks like some of this is going to drag on for a long time," says Cousins. ANN GIBBONS Seeing Big Things in Miniaturization ~--1,:xe1?--JI -.~9-7/ The wave of miniaturization that swept over the electronics industry over the past 30 years transformed the technology and opened vast new markets-worth $70 billion annually in the case of personal computers alone. Now a second wave of miniaturization is getting ready to break, and it's likely to spill into a host of entirely new and potentially vast com mercial arenas, according to an Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) report re leased to Congress last week.* Unlike the first wave, which was almost entirely restricted to ways of fashioning cir cuitry on the surfaces of silicon wafers, this second wave will include methods for sculpt ing more complicated three-dimensional microstructures into silicon and other materials. The report envisions a menagerie of minus cule optoelectronic devices, micromechanical widgets, and wee sensors (Science, 26 July, p. 387), with uses ranging from shrinking the size and cost of spacecraft to delivering drugs to optimizing manufacturing efficiency and product quality. Even in the electronics in dustry, where the shrinking has been pro ceeding for decades, the report notes that this second wave of miniaturization will be welcome-indeed, it will take on new urgency as old technologies approach physical barriers. Engineers believe that soon after the year 2000 they will be making silicon-based transistors with features as narrow as .1 mi crometer. At that point, silicon-based mi crocircuitry will butt against forms of elec trical resistance and quantum effects that would make still smaller transistors unreli able in their most basic function as dee*Miniaturization Technologies, Office of Technology Assessment; J\'aiiJble from rhe L'.S. Go\'ernment Print ing Office (GPO ,cock number 052-003-01267-7). 1288 Future wheels of commerce? Micro meter-scale turbines. tronic on-off switches. To push miniaturization even further, engineers are looking for ways to exploit research in exotic fields such as quantum and molecular electronics ( see this week's special section on nanotech nology, beginning on page 1300). The question that runs throughout the OT A report: Who will be the first to capitalize on these and other miniaturization efforts? The stakes are high, says the report: "Those companies and nations that can suc cessfully develop and capitalize on miniatur ization developments will reap handsome rewards." If the United States fails to realize that promise, the fault will not lie with its basic science community. "'On the whole, United States researchers lead [ the world] in miniaturization technology R&D," the report says, though in the recent past the United States has often lagged behind other nations, especially Japan, in translating R&D advances in microelectronics into hot-selling commodities like VCRs, computer memory chips, and display technology. In writing the report, the OTA's charge didn't include making policy recommenda tions, so the document doesn't say how the Capitol Hill tribe should help U.S. industry capture as much of the economic spoils of miniaturization as possible. But, says Representive Tim Valentine (D-NC), chair man of the recently formed House subcom mittee on technology and competitiveness, the survey "will help us to identify areas of commercial promise." Karl Hess, an electrical engineer at the University of Illinois, hopes the report will serve as a general wakeup call to the field's potential. Hess, who chaired an OTA-con vened workshop on miniaturization this Feb ruary, wants to tum the attention of policy makers from big science projects like the Superconducting Super Collider and the space station to the less flashy, but more commercially promising, brew of miniatur ization technologies the report describes. "'Even far-out concepts in nanotechnology will have greater economic impact than if I go work on the super collider and hope for spinotfs," says Hess. IVAN AMATO Correction Because of a production error, the photographs of Pierre Chambon and Harald zur Hausen, which appeared on pages 1116 and 1117 of last week's issue (22 November), were transposed. Here's what you should have seen: Chambon is on the left, zur Hausen on the right. ~UE~CI:'. \'OL. ~o-t -

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! ,, COHPUTER\AORLO fRAKit16tll%K, 111% WEEY.LY 12~,000. HOU 181991 r .-. .-~, .. ~'?. ... ; i' ~ ':\:/~)~: :l(. ~. ii!~:drr" ..... -,,:/ ;/;~~\ { :1: f, -------I ... .. -1J7 d ffURREJ.U'$t:.f). I :~-~-i~iY'~. _.: t~-~-~;:_ _______ _Jl...,~o-==!::~~~!!!!!!~!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!~~~~~~:;'~,-~_:.,;.._~.=;~~~-:::...~--------------------------=-~-~ .. '._{ OTA, ~~s7 vfull speed ahead_ on risky fingerprint pro_~ect ::: :!:::~ :::: : ::: ll'~~_ totypes early in 1993. It would -t;,: BY GARY H ANTHES said. But the FBI's existmg sys-hopes to be able to complete as laser scanmng fmgers for ink-like to begin installation in the \ cw siAFF tern is "a partially automated searches in criminal cases within less capture of print images, is spring of 1994 and become fully j l _l system that is technically obso-two hours. .. advanced, but it is the data vol-operational in June 1995. WASHINGTON, D.C. The lete and incompatible with the The FBI estimated it will in-umes and turnaround require-Nevertheless, the OTA said Office of Technolog~ Assessadvanced AFIS used by the vest $600 mllion during the ments that make the project some risk is unavoidable because ment (OTA) of the U.S. Con-states," the congressional think next four years on its fmgerprint risky from a technological point simple extensions of existing gress last week strongly entank said. With postal delays, a rmdernizatioo program, includ-of view, the OTA said. technology may not be feasible. dorsed a plan by the Federal fingerprint check can take as ing $200 million for a new build-The FBI system will process In any case, the OTA said the Bureau of Investigation to over-long as 60 days far too long ing in West Vtrginia. volumes much greater and maincosts of inadvertently releasing haul its semiautomated system for many criminal justice needs, OTA project director Fred B. tain files far larger than exist in repeat offenders, detaining inno-for fingerprint matching, storit said in a 40-page analysis. Wood said the $400 million estieven the largest state systems. cent people because of misidentiage and retrieval, but it cau-mate for systems includes $100 By the year 2000, fmgerprint fication and failing to solve seritioned that the project is fraught Matches In minutes million for 450 specialized mini-"cards" could come into the ous crimes far outweigh with risk. With the FBI's new system, fin-computer-class "fingerprint Clarksburg facility for matching whatever cost savings might acDespite the risks, the OTA gerprint matches will be possible matchers," $100 million for con-at rates as high as 100,000 per company a slower approach. said the FBI should press on in minutes, making it feasible to trolling mainframes and optical day, and the database will hold In a statement, Rep. Don Edwithout delay, citing "the large book suspects and set bail. A susand digital storage, $100 million prints for 34 million people, with wards (D-Calif.) said, "At a time number of criminal justice decipect's fmgerprints can be taken for telecCllllllunications equipeach person's prints using about when increasing reliance is being sions made erroneously each day locally and scanned with digital ment and lines and $100 million IM byte of storage. placed on criminal history recdue to untimely or incomplete images. They can then be sent for computers for related crime ords for pre-employment back-... fingerprint and criminal reelectronically to the FBl's pro-applications. Little room for error ground checks, lawmakers often cord checks." posed identification center in The OTA said the impact of According to the OTA, the proj-overlook the poor quality of exMost states have Automated Clarksburg, W. Va. The results the new system on operating ect is risky because "the autoisting databases particularly Fingerprint Identification Sys-of a subsequent computer costs is not known, but it ac-mation schedule ... is very tight in terms of missing dispositions ,, terns (AFIS), which have proven match, including the suspect's knowledged that the FBI is asand allows little if any margin for and the necessity of using fin-ki : to be faster, more accurate and identity and criminal record, will suming labor productivity will in-error." gerprints to avoid misidentity. I t more cost-effective than manual then be sent back to the local crease by 50% to 100%. The FBI expects to issue a reThis report properly emphasizes g!',1.; fingerprint checks, the OTA law-enforcement office. The FBI Some of the technology, such quest for proposals early next these two areas.'' ) ~----ll'ffllll'l!l'l~""'"""""''-"""""'~~IIPlnlll~~~~~-all!I .... _~~~~---_:___ ----E.~ J~~iii4i!Al&SJ&.ltkk&P.,.WM&.il$#Q A!#,4 ,, ,, 'WriPA411,UUS -

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RJEVIJEW & OUTWOI Das Kapital "Capitalism without capital is just an ism." -JESSE JACKSO!II Though we disagree on many things, we think the Rev. Jackson has .located the logjam in the American .economy. Capital is too expensive, and too bottled up, to promote the ani mal spirits of capitalism needed to get this country moving again. To spur recovery, Washington has to break the capital logjam. The easi est, most efficient way to do that is to cut the capital-gains tax. It's no acci dent that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan yesterday called for exceedin!!'lv "wide and deep" incen ti ves for capital formation while testi fymg before the House Ways and Means Comrmttee. The ideal capital gains rate. he said pointedly, is "zero"; today's top rate is 33%. The other advertised economic cures-from an investment tax credit to middle-class tax cuts-are mere palliatives based on faulty diagnoses. The White Houses latest gimmick, a S300 tax rebate, was best dignified yesterday by Mr. Greenspan's no Comparing Capltal,Galas Tax Rat on Stocks aPl"IIILIIAMI' -TIIMrll IIIIOIIT 'IDII 1.111111-TIIIII Unllld Stl1II 33% % Japan 1 '4 ol sales t,~ ot sales price or20% price or 20% of 1181 a!!!! oflllte!J Aatrllia 47% o17"4;tssel COIi is illdelled ........ Exempt ExemPI Canida 21.8'4 21.S,. fnlllCI 16'% 16'4 a-.., 53'4 Exempt (WIil) Hont1Kan1 Exempl Exemot Italy Exempt Exemr,r. NIIIHll'lllldl Exempt Exam!! SWIIIID. 35% fl.5% 1111111d >%; : \ --ISSll CCII Is asaet-cGlt llldexld illdlrlliJ Soatr:I: Amn:a1 Council 191 Capital fotmltion, All/1IISI IIIIID comment. While these remedies may have some small merit, none can overcome the bone in the throat of the economy that is America's high tax on capital. Unlike the White House. Chairman Greenspan understands the facts re vealed by the accompanying table on capltalgains tax rates In Industrial nations. The fundamental point Is that no other major country taxes capital as punitively as the United States. No other country with a decent economy taxes the in0ated gains built up through inflation. As Colwnbia economist Eytan Sbeshinsld observes for the National Bu reau of Economic Research, "Only the United States and Australia regard capital gains as ordinary In come. I.e., tax these gains at the same rate as earnings." Even Australia, no economicparagon,allowsforlnoatlon indexing for gains on assets beld longer than one year. All other countries either fully ex-rates Jong-term gains (I.e., gains on stocks held longer than a year, or; In Sweden, longer than two years)," adds Mr. Sheshlnsld. In Germany, "long term" Is a mere six months. In Japan. famous for Its supposed Investor patience, short and Jong-term gains are taxed at the same rate. Brit ain has the only other high rate at j 40%, but indexes for gains made after ,, 1982 and exempts gains made before l: that. The supposedly capitalist U.S., :: in short, is least kind to capital. Many other countries also tax interest Income at favorable rates. Where ~-t~ the "competitiveness" freaks when we really need them? This diagnosis, by the way, is hardly radical. It's also central to a recent study by Congress's Office of Technology Assessment. In Its October publication ("Competing Economies: America, Europe and the Pacific Rim"), touted by no less a Belt way eminence than Texas Democrat Lloyd Bentsen, the OTA writes, "Jap anese and German companies have enjoyed much lower capital costs for plant and equipment acquisition and R&D than American ftrms. '' OTA recommends trade protection and industrial policy. two policy fa .vorltes of the Democrats who pay OTA's salaries. But the report also says: "One option would be to create a capital-gains tax that favors long term gains and penalizes short-term turnover of holdings,'' lncludlnf a rate as low as 10%. OTA's "long-term" caveat Is a mistaken bow to the schemes of Democrats who want to fine-tune private Investment, but even It understands the capital logjam. A capital-gains cut Is also a needed incentive because now the rovem ment plays heads-I-win, talls-you-lose on capital losses. Capital gains count \ as "ordinary Income" In the tax code, bwicapital losses can't be deducted : apln!lr'Ordll!arY income beyond 1.1,000 a year. This ls unfair: Wages aren't known to fall beiow zero, but Invest ments can and do decline In value. If losses were fully deductible, in vestors would have an Incentive to realize them quickly. This would pro mote mobility of capital and thus more venture, capital. But since de ductibility for capital losses would be expensive to the Treasury, a lower tax rate for capital pins has Joni been the favorite compromise. It was only purged from the tax code In 1986. as the bribe paid to the likes of Democrat George Mitchell for letting the top Income-tax rate fall. The eco nomic price for Mr. Ml~ll's petu lanct: Is now being pak;l In prolonged recession. With Its timidity, the Bush administration has let the capital-pins de bate fall hostage to the politics of "fairness." But the American puh]lc will not Ignore the merits of the case If someone has the cow-are to make IL U even Jesse Jackson can Widerstand that capitalism requires capital. why can't Congress and the White S /., .jcO.RNA

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A20 MONDAY, NOVE11BER 25, 1991 .... :.: THE WASH, AN INDEPENDENT NEWSPAPER America as Competitor BEYOND THE short-term performance of the American economy and the rising anxi eties about growth in the coming election year lies a much more portentous question. The United States' success as a competitor in world markets has been declining over tlle past decade. The results are most visible in the. average person's earnings, which have been flat since the 1970s. A rising standard of living requires im ptoved competitiveness. The question is how to achieve it. ,This country seems to be coming to the end of its inclination to leave competitiveness mostly to the market. Those Adam Smith neckties are going out of fashion. The erosion oi, the American position in key industries is too ,apparent. A lot of hard thinking is now underway, and some of it is reflected in the reports of Congress's Office of Technology Assessment. The most recent, on the triangular competition among the United States, Western Europe and Japan, appeared on Nov. 13. One attractive idea is to develop more vigorous partnerships between industry and the federal government in research and ,development. Another is a system of industrial extension agents, modeled on farm agents, to nudge companies toward better methods of manufacturing. Ameri can institutions for disseminating new technology, the OT A warns, are weak. How about usiing government procurement of innovative equipmt~nt to build markets for it? That, after all, is how the computer industry was developed. OTA is provid ing its masters in Congress with the background from which many bills will doubtless be drawn. But Congress, like the White House, continues to resist several basic truths that OTA and nearly everyone else writing on these subjects find inescapable. Americans spend too much. They save arid invest too little. Much of the Japanese advantage can be explained by one fact alone: Japan invests twice as large a proportion of its income in new equipment and machinery as the United States does. One reason is that American companies ar.e penalized by the enormous federal budget deficit, which holds interest rates high and discourages investment. As the budget vise tightens, support for education is cut and college tuitions rise-making it harder than ever for students to complete the long and demanding training that produces the engineers and scientists that high productivity requires. Those three threats to economic successhuge deficits, low investment and rising barriers to education-need to be corrected first. Until that's done, nothing else is going to make much difference.

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U.S. Should Alter Its Policies on Trade To Halt Competitive Decline, Study Says By EDUARDO LArm,A Staff Reporter of Tm-: w ALL STREET JOURNAL WASl-fINGTON -The U.S. should re locus its fiscal and trade policies to halt a decline In Industrial competitiveness, a congressional research group said. The Office of Technology Assessment warned that the diminishing U.S. share of world trade and the erosion of U.S. living standards are signs that the country Is fallIng behind international competitors In manufacturing. The office specifically faults U.S. trade policy for being too "reactive," for failing to set "strategic priorities" and for taking too long to help U.S. industries injured by unfair trade. If a U.S. industry is In such trouble, the Immediate response should be to stress domestic relief such as tax breaks and research-and-development support, rather than launching the more uncertain process of trying to open foreign markets for the U.S. producers, the study says. Even under current International trade rules, the U.S. can provide temporary pro-deputy to White House Chief of Staff John Sununu, told Mr. Kemp before his appear ance on CBS's "Face the Nation" last Sunday that the White House preferred that he not publicly air his differences with the White House. Mr. Kemp has been careful not to criti cize Mr. Bush directly and, In fact, has ar gued that he supaorts policies the presi dent already adv ing Committee, said: "Our GoveJllk....: ment has refused to recognize .1'11.~ problem. Are we better off withotit a. strategy, and with a willy-nilly "iilt;~ proach?" ..... And Senator John D. Rockef~. 4th of West Virginia, who is chairniaa .... ......... Congress says Government must:~ ............. ..... re-establish leadership. -. --.... """" -.:--.i,. -:_.__._. ,.,_ 4 ........ .. "'-~ a., ..... .. .,,.....,., ....... ~-t~ of the Commerce Committe's committee on Foreign Commetti!'~ called the report a "clarion call" ,.~.; bold action on trade policy and sph(. "Under the Bush Administration: he~ said, "the situation has gotten w~!e: not better." -.... ..._ 11 Behind the Competition' = ~-.,.., The Congressional report sta!ect flatly that "U.S. manufacturing. ,a.~ falling behind the competition.'~l: !)Oted that America's share of w~lf. imports rose to 17.5 percent in II)~:" from 12.9 percent in 1970, while.;t,e, United States share of world export~ !ell to 10.3 percent, from 13.8 percebt: m the same period. ... Real hourly wages of m~nufa~ui:; ing production workers peaked' .Jfi. 1978 at almost $9.50 an hour, the~port said. By 1990, they had fa11$"-fll" almost $8. ... ... "This does not mean that e9:t,; American industry is uncompet(n~. or is growing less competitive t~ report said.

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Government urged to play active role Govennnent should holster finns The Ofla ol Tedl'IOIOtlY AHHI,,,_,, ,.tudyt~ U.S. government lhOuld .,_. relWCh and devllopment coeta for criti cal lnduatriel, Including electronlcs, computers, preclllon machining, robotlca, woepece and blohlchnology. CO'if:!i~~~rt says and Tom Schmit& : Tbe Bub administration bu rejected such tc. Men:ur,, N ... Staff Writen t..RJcr'l \ f a U lncoasilteat with free.market principJ-. "W ASBINGTON America's hi&b-tecll mama-Wbile tbe OTA report alone II unllkely to chan&e facturers are continuing to fall beblDd their global that, l89en1 oblel vers said it could prove lmporcompetiton eapeclalJy tbe Japane11 and tut in debatea over whether the United Statea they will drq llVinl standardl bere down witb sbould adopt ID indultrial policy. Tax lnaka lh0uld be offwed to reduce COll)Cllate llnanclng coata. should expand technology extenalOn programs to help anal! and medium manutacturwa keep up wtth tectlnologleal lnnovatlona. them unlell the pe11un.nt doel more to belp. "The pnlident bll sboWn lumle1f wil1inl to That ii tbe ,.,.. ... from.a 375-pqe study cbange Ida mind if tbere Is enou.f,J:!~1 l)IWrelewd Wednelday by tbA QffJc,,. of ~ooJ,v sure," said WUfred Conipn, of tbe Umfted protectlan from competition lhould be granted to kay lnduatrlel tr r a respected non-partilan agency of Semk:oadudor Industry Asloclation and chief aCoacr-. ecutlve of LSI Logic Corp. of Milpitas. "It The report's concluaiom ecbo thole of a p,,w-wouldn't surprile me if there wa enougil of a int cborul of SUlcoo Valley encuttvea, policy groundlwe1l that (adminiltratlon offlclala) would ana1,... and polltlcal 1eadera calling oa govern-change their position-:not abruptly, but perbap1 1 they wort,c to llnpr'GW competltMnela. meat to take a more active role in helJ>inl ld&b-(/ See TECH, Back Page -------_;------~-~-. ----~ -~ ... l.J:S. __ shoul~ intervene in high-tech sector, ~port says a ._TECH Tbe openin1 sentences read: "U.S. manufaeturiJII Is falllnl be, fto/n Paoe lA bind tbe competition. The standard over time." of comparilon Is Japan. ... That May help Democrass = If no_tbing eJae, the OT A report major cbaqes in government pollgives Democrats an impressive cles, we upect U.S. manufac-~on-parttsan authority to cite dur-turinl competitiveness to continue mg the coming election year when to sink compared with Japan." charging economic mismanageThat meana Japanese llvtng ment by President Bush. Leading standards are llkely to continue J?emocratic senaton wuted 00 their phenomenal post-war rise, time in seizing that op--1... wbile U.S. living standards will "A week ago,_.:.~ continue to stagnate and decline, sylvania voters sent Waabington a the OTA report says. "Most Ameri-wake-up call. Today we release I cans are not becoming better off, report wblcb conflnm that eco-and moat Japaneae are." nomic policy-makers have, indeed, Stephen Cohen., author of the been asleep at the Switch," said ; book ":t\tfanufacturt Matters'' and Sen. IJoyd Bentsen, D-Tezas, at a l a member of tbe firs Wednesday news conference. commission on competitlvenea, His reference wu to the upeet said be found the report's conclu defeat of former U.S. Attorney sioDI very gratifying; ~URichard.S. Sena Tbornburp for a ( ''We've been writ1n1 this for ......... te seat. more than 10 years," said Cohen, Japan sheJten lndanrte. who allo directs the Berkeley Roundtable on the International Easentially the OTA rpt con-__J Economy. "We're dellgilted that tendl that Japu'I state-directed these themes are being ecboed by capitalilm wora better than the such a pnsUgioul ll"CJUP u the United State, free-martet ap-1 OTA." J)l"OICh. Japan's IOYWDllleDt sbel-Critic bluq re--ten Irey indultries from cutthroat _. competition and often subsidizes However T .J. Rodprs, chief a-their coata, while the U.S. govern. ecutive officer of CypreSI Semi-meat doea not. conductor Corp. of San Joee and a -staunch advocate of laisaez.falre policy, called the report "paeudoeconomics." "The reuon Japanese compa ftrml through Sematech, the chip niea are ao damned competitive manufacturing research consor with us Is they are ao intemely tium in Austin, Texas. Tu breaks competitive with each other," Rod-should be targeted to reduce corpogen said. "Doea anybody really rat. financing costs. believe that (intervention by) our In addition, government should aovemment Is going to make tbe greatly apand its technology a:-0.S. high-tech industry more com-tension programs which operate petitive? I don't." mucb Ute agricultural atension Studies lite the OT A report, \ centen to help tbe United "give .,... in WllbinltoD some-Statel' 350,000 small and medium tbiDg to talk about and spend moo-size manufacturers keep up witll : ey on." be 111d. "It doem't have teclmological innovations. And Um I anytbinl to do wttb real campeti lted protection from competition I tivenelL" should be granted to key industries CrlUcal bldaaiel u they work to improve their competitiveness, the report sug-~: ~!act~ gested. are followinl strategies similar to ~~;.~=~:P:'1.:1; IF YOU'RE INTERESTED "critical commercial industries" To get a copy of "Competing Econo-; whole teclmololiCll advances are mies: America, Europe and the Paclf. I most likely to lift their entire econ-le Rim," send $17 to the U.S. Governomiel and llvinl standards. ment Printing Office, Superintendent Sucb critlcal indultri8I include of Documents, Dept. 33, Wahington, _,___.__1 com.......,.. .....,. ... ,ters, o.c., 20402-9325, or call (202) _,........., ..---. .. ___.783-3238 or fax (202) 275-0019. M software. commanicatlom equip-t.C.d and Visa are accepted. meat, pnclslOll macbiDinl, robot-ics, &ercJIPIC8 and bioteclmology, the OTA report aya. a.. 1J1: The United Statea should forge a ..,an ~oie ~~~r.nttDS similar comprehensive industrial SAN JOSE, CAL. strategy, tbe report urges. Critlcal D. 278,676 =.n. sbou1d be targeted for CA-619 help. Government should share research and development costs, much as lt doea now for computer NOV 14 19 91 Bu~"{.El.~.E'S

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:: ",11(-lmerica as Competitor B EY.-771 NOV 1 7 19 91 g,m.qu.g

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RArito, RECORDS LOS ANGELES, CA WEE.KL V 7, SQQ HOU 15 1991 -5.699 PLftYa MQ t ... .i:c:. .. Report Criticizes Commission And NTIA WARC Procedures ~~'s0fficeofTechnoloiYASSment (OTA) is calling for a restructuring of FCC, NTIA, and State Department roles in setting international telecommunica tions policy to cut down on "turf battles" in preparations for World Administrative Radio Conferences. An OTA report1issued Monday (11/11) criticiUld a "lack of high level attention and inspired policy guidance" in forming U.S. WARC positions. It noted that some analysts have called for creation of a permanent W ARC delegation head to give continuity to negotiations. However, the report also said prep arations for the 1992 W ARC went rather smoothly because "the individuals involved got along well and cooperation among agencies was good." Even so, it said the agencies clashed over where to put DAB. The report. written before the FCC abandoned its support for an I.rband DAB allocation, warned that Pentagon and NTIA opposition to relocating aircraft telemetry users could result in the U.S. refus ing to go along with a worldwide al-location. "This could mean that [DAB] services developed in the U.S. would not use the same fre quencies as the rest of the world the systems would be incompatible," OTA said. Defining Roles OT A called for a clearer definition of the various agencies' roles in forming u .s. policy. procedures for resolving conflicts, and more interaction between agency heads. FCC Chairman Al Sikes was traveling at R&R's deadline and couldn't be reached. NTIA Direc-C Continued on Page 9 .. ----., _____ .... -....;;_,.,,,, --. -Report Cdticizes Commission, ~TIA WARC Proc..!!'!.. .. -.. \ CdlttlnU8d from Page 4 delay or inefficiencies in bringing Janice Obachowskl didn't re-new tecbnolngies h> the public. One turn cans seeking comment cm the example cit.ed: AM stereo. The importance of WARC deci-report. ....... ...a __ .. _, sicDI to U.S. trade ccmpetitiveoess '"lbe lack of a WIIUl:U -radio CODll'J"uricatioo policy, was a key element of the CYl'A re-c:llr.... international spectrum pM. noting the already large ....,. ability to worldwide markets fer radios. telegoa)s, will lmt the U.S.'s V1S1 ons, and cellular phones. negotiate and compete," the OTA report warned. It said the "Stakes are likely to be even coontry's depmde,:e cm market higher in the future as the workl forces to -~ decision-making_ moves toward an information -.....nnnnt11," the report said. bas resulted in a "vacuum m the .,

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COliHUMICATIOHS DAIL'r' WASHitlGTOH, DC DAILY TUESDAY HOU 12 1991 =1~78 BURREUS cc txe a tl .... Expertise wasted ...... --..--OTC SAYS LACK OF PLANNING AND RESOURCES HINDER U.S. WARC PREPARATION D :'l 1 "f l d" t" ., 1 W Id Ad R d" Co '" evelopment of lon&-teOD mtemationa ra 1ocommu01ca 10ns po icy at or n mmistrat1ve a 10 n1erence (W ARC) in Feb. will be undermined by U.S. lack of planning and resources, Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) said in report to Congress. Govt. needs more formal framework, increased staff and funds to bolster its lead ership, study said. W ARC will allocate spectrum for HDlV, DAB, mobile satellite services, satellite-delivered audio services, low-Earth-orbit birds, private and emergency radio services. Domestic WARC preparation process "suffers from a lack_ of high-level attention and inspired policy guidance," report said. Instead, preparations are driven by personal relat10nships of individuals involved from FCC, NTIA, State Dept., OTA said. But dependence on individuals "may ultimately undermine long-term U.S. interests," it said, because staff changes could sour collegial relations or lead to turf battles. U,S, deperuience on market forces to set priorities also creates problems, OTA said. Approach "may give the system the flexibility it needs to adequately meet the evolving short-term needs of both the government and the pri vate sector, but overreliance on such market forces may threaten the effective pursuit of broader longer term goals and priorities," it said. "Vacuum" exists in policy-making because no single federal agency is responsible for planning new radio services and or is designated as leader in domestic and international policy-making, it said. It said federal and business experts are aging, with few younger staff members ready to fill their places. \J iA HOKl ijEEK -~ '.jPAf.F. TECHHOLOGV Nl::lol '(l}RK, l'l't WEEKL'-1 152, l4S NOIJ 10 1991 -638 BURRIUl'S MQ t.e .. o 00 .... HANDS ON NEEDED \ )~Tl UNCLE SAM'S CURR.ENT EMPHASIS----frequency allocations hurts the nation's abilion market ~orces over federal planning in radio Office of Technology ~ent said ty to negotiate and compete internationally, the broadcasting and mobile co m a report to Congrea With new satellite-based of federal planning can dela;:=tJ~ns sjtems co~peting for spectrum, the OT A said, a lac~ The market approach, in place since ~;::d-~:w ser;::: ~d create or perpetuate inefficiencies. short-term allocation decisions, the OT A ackno~ give !J S. regulators ~ore flexibility iJ1 munications policy hostage to ad hoc nal g~. B~t it argued that this leaves telecon11-spec:ialjsts. Scheduling W ARCs perso relat10nships between regulators and industry force-feed policy and lead to im;;:::~~y andakinm~re ~ften, a possibility for the 1990s, might ectSlon m g tn the U. S., the OT A suggested.

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The Houift~ ,;~;~,1 HOUSTON, TEXAS SUN. 370,4411 TX NOV 3 1991 BVREJ.'-FS NATION I WORLD Report mininmes need for mandatory AIDS tests &'-J.(/1 Y. ASSOCIATED PRESS WASHING TON Setter use of infection control procedures will be more effective than vol~ntary test ing in minimizing the nsk of AIDS transmission by health care workers, a congressional report con cluded Saturday. The report, by the Office of _Tech.nology ~sessment, sa,,r-~ risk ofbealtfi care workers passmg along to patients the HIV virus that causes AIDS cannot be estimated precisely but evidence suggests it is very small. Recently adopted guidelines by the Centers for Disease Control, "if widely implemented, are likely to have the intended effect of reducing further the very small risk of HIV transmission in the work place," the Q'.U. report said. The most effective among these guidelines, the report said, is the f1rst, which calls for adherence to infection control procedures, such as hand washing, use of gloves and disposal of needles. Other guidelines call for iden!ification of exposure-prone surg:cal and dental procedures and voluntary testing of health care workers. I Workers who are infected with the AIDS virus should seek the advice ~pert review panel to deter-mine under what circumstances they can perform these procedures. These workers should also notify their patients of their HIV status before they perform any of these procedures. The OT A report said it was un clear whether voluntary testing and use of review panels would help reduce the risk of transmission, "since health care workers' fear of disclosure, potential discrimination and loss of livelihood may provide a disincentive to seek appropriate counseling and testing." OTA agreed with CDC's position that the risk of HIV transmission by health care workers is too small to justify mandatory testing. The CDC is to meet Monday in Atlanta with medical and public health groups to draft a list of expo sure-prone procedures. The agency hopes to publish a list by Nov. 15. Several groups of medical pro fessionals, including the American College of Surgeons, have refused to participate in the effort because they say there is no scientific basis for saying which procedures carry a high risk. Concern about the possible transmission of HIV by health care workers heightened when five patients of an HIV-infected dentist in Florida learned they also had the Vin.JS. t -----------,& Voluntary AIDS teSting challenged US _report says guidelines might backfire by raising new fears Ut~t'. y Dolores Kong transmitting the virus. to _their pa-AIDS. The co~onal study con-GWBE STAFF tients. Parts of the gwdelines have eludes that those measures, too, may Federal guidelines calling for voluntary AIDS testing of health care workers could backfire, leading some to avoid testing out of fear of disclosure and discrimination, a congressional report being released today concludes. The report comes a day before the federal Centers for Disease Control is scheduled to convene a meeting in Atlanta on its guidelines for preventing infected workeni from met with increasing resistance from not help reduce th,e risk of transmisbroad segments of the health care sion. community. "Fear of disclosure and resulting In the report, the Office of Techdiscrimination may act as a disincen nology Assessment also questioned tive for health care workers to seek the effectiveness of other CDC rec-counseling and testing," said a state ommendations that infected health ment issued by the agency, which care workers notify their patients of completed the report at Sen. Edtheir status and that expert panels ward M. Kennedy's request. be convened to supervise patient The report supported CDC's emcare by health workers who are posi-phasis on slH:alled universal precau tive for HIV, the virus that causes tions as the primary way to prevent ,, BOSTON SUHOIIY 61..0BE BOSTON, NA SUNDAY 791,605 NOU 3 1991 3' BV!frfU.E'S PW .IC OC .a .... transmission of the disease to pal tients. Such precautions call for health care workers to wear latex gloves and sterilize medical equip ment properly. The congressional report also backed CDC's stance I against mandatory testing, since the available scientific evidence indicate~ there is an almost immeasurably small risk of a health care worker transmitting HIV to a patient. These portions of the CDC guidelines, "if widely implemented, are likely to have the.intended effect of reducing further the extremely ~mall risk of HIV transmission in the workplace," the report states. Some state health officials and professional groups have balked at having to tell patients that health care workers are infected with the AIDS virus or at having to come up with a list of "exposure-prone" procedures that HIV-positive workers should avoid. They say universal precautions are the best approach.

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RADIO CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM Bu~!l~~~E1S -;r N('R rHFIE.l tJ ROAD LIVINGS roN / NEW JERSEY G 1039 c ~-~vJ 11 992_r;600 t:' '..!l 227-5610 / (BOOJ 6J1-116u November 1. 1991 11:00-11:05 PM MT NBC News Paul Henderson reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 10/6297 Y A report by the Con~essional Office of Technology Assessment says more effective infection-control procedures would be better than AIDS testing to reduce the transmission of AIDS by health-care workers. Dr. Don Des Jarlais of the National Commission on AIDS says stricter infection controls makes sense. Dr. Don Des Jarlais: Even if you had testing of all patients and testing of all health-care workers, you would still want to have--follow the universal precautions anyway. Henderson: The congressional report says the risk of AIDS being transmitted by health-care workers is too small to justify universal testing. Labor Letter h~CZ'l V A Special News Reptrt on People And Their Jobs an Offices, Fields antr actories [_RON:JP~ THE AIDS VIRUS ID health workers is a very minor risk for patients. A report by the congression~ ..... w...J""-+ .Iecboalae:x Ag;essroeot agrees With the fed eral Centers for Disease Control that the danger an infected health-care worker would transmit the human immunodefl ciency virus to patients is extremely small. But analysis is too tricky to support or dis prove the CDC's estimate that 13 to 128 pa tients may have been infected during dental and surgical procedures in the past 10 years, the OT A says. The five patients infected by a Florida dentist are the only known cases of HIV transmission to patients, excluding transfu sions. the OTA says. It agrees that manda tory testing of health-care workers isn't jus tified. CDC guidelines for precautions are helpful, but some may deter uorkers from seeking counseling or testing, the OTA says. 10 Clips ~All STREET JOURHAL (ijESTE?K EOITIOK) RI'JERSIOE, CA O~ILV 402,Jl7 TUESO~Y HOU 12 1991

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Biotechstill living off its prg_(~~ promise., WASHINGTON (Reuters) The United States leads the world in biotechnology, but finding commer cial applications for the industrys products is a slow-going process. according to a study released yester day. ''To date, most U.S. biotechnology companies have no sales and have been losing money since th~ incep tion," said the report by the Office of Technology Assessment, which researches technology issues for Congress. .. "Only one-fifth of biotechnology firms surveyed in 1990 were profitable." Since the industry burgeoned in the early 1980s, 15 biotech drup and vaccines have emerged on the mar ket. Revenues from those products last year hit an estimated $2 billion. But 100 biotecb products DOW in human clinical trials will cost $5 billion to $10 billion to bring to market. Biotedmology, tbe engtneenng of genetic material to crate drap and Pia# -...JJIOTECB: .u-~ Cal. zK SAM DIEGO TRIBUNE SAN on:eo. CA. OAU.Y llS,673 TUESDA.Y OCT 29 1991 S84 BunREfff1 JQ .. ae .==ii:=i=m=i==' b .... BIOTECH: Still a promise Caatillaed From AA-1 I( other products, is expected to be the driving scientifie: force for the dis covery of new medicines in the 21st century, according to OTA. The 1987 stock market crash virt. ally halted public stock. offerinp ill biotech companies, which did not re sume until early this year. The re port says nearly $18 billion of new stock was sold between January and May, the biggest. flve-montla S1IQl ever for the industry. The United States maintains a biotech stronghold with 403 firms de voted specifically to biotechnology and 70 major corporations with in vestments in the field. The report attributes U.S. dominance to a strong research base and the industrial capacity to convert basic research into products. Japan, a major biotechnology rival, suffers from a lack of strong research, "which has led firms to seek access to research and training abroad, especially in the United States," the report says. Japan's pharmaceutical industry, sheltered from international competition, has only recently refined drug development, testing and marketing, the report says. The merger of Genentech, the largest U.S. biotech firm, with Swissowned Hoffmann-LaRoche has increased concern about foreign acquisitions of U.S. firms, according to OTA.. But "currently there is insufficent evidence to state that U.S. commer cial interests in biotechnology att threatened by foreign acquisition," the study says. ___ f

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RADIO CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM .iq~!J.~UFS !5 EAST NORTHF1Et O ROAD Ll\tlNGS TON; NEW JERSEY 0,039 (20 rJ 992-F;fj()() /212) 227-5570, 1800) 6J ,. "60 October 29. I l)l) l 7:00-8:00 AM MT Business Radio ~etwork BRN News Jack Lott reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 10/6197 Y A new study shows the t,;nited States leads the world in biotechnology. But as Joe Carlton reports. findinll commercial applications for the industry's products is a .slow-,rowinli! -process. ::-. Joe Carlton reporting: The report by the Office of T echnoloi}' Assessment. which researches techno logies issues for Congress. says that most U.S. biotechnology companies ha\"e no sales. And have been losing money since their inception. Since the industry burgeoned in the early sos. fifteen biotech drugs and vaccines have emerged on the market. Revenues from those products last year hit an estimated two billion dollars. But one hundred biotech products, now in human trials. will cost five to ten billion dollars to bring to market. According to OTA. biotechnology is expected to be the driving scientific force for the disco\'ery of new medicines in the :?1st century. That report attributes U.S. dominance to a strong research base and the industrial capacity to convert basic research into products. I'm Joe Carlton. !(1 Clip~

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Briefings edited by CONSTANCE HOLDEN Minorities Need More Nurture A new AAAS survey suggests that despite all the talk about getting more women and minor pities into science and engineer ing, colleges and universities aren't trying very hard. The survey, described in the report "Investing in Human Potential,"* looked into programs designed to assist minorities, women, and people with disabilities by query ing 276 institutions. The authors concluded that the results "paint a bleak picture." For example, only 10% of the programs surveyed are directed at the recruitment and retention of women-and most of these charge fees for participation. Only half of the institutions sur veyed calculate graduation rates for these groups of undergradu ates, even though they are at higher risk for dropping out, said Marsha Matyas of the AAAS Directorate for Education and Human Resources, speaking at a 28 October press conference in Washington. Matyas added that about 30 campus officials. called upon receipt of the question naire to ask what was meant by "attrition rate." Data are particularly poor on students with physical disabili ties, said Daryl Chubin of the Office of Technology Assess ment, who noted that the pas sage last year of the Americans with Disabilities Act "will be putting a lot of pressure on universities." And as for minorities, despite a multitude of special programs, blacks are still doing much better at historically black colleges and universities than elsewhere. Carol Fuller of the National In stitute of Independent Colleges and Universities suggested that they have more options in such schools: "At [ a predominantly black school] you can come in copies ofAAAS report #91-395 can be purchased for $9.95, plus $4 shipping, by calling 301-645-5643. 796 1.6 .. la 1.4 :g -a 1.2 0 1.0 I o.8 -a 0 0.6 8 0.4 ii 3 0.2 GI z 0.0 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 (May) Blotech rollercoaster. Investors lost interest in biotech-related companies following the stock market crash in October 1987. But by early this year the market had hit record levels despite a sluggish economy, with more than $2.5 billion worth of new stock sold between January and November. Now the market appears to be cooling again, ;ording to a new report, "Biotechnology in a Global Economy,"* from the IICC St V I 199)( ftetT-111e 283-page report discusses biotechnology in agriculture, the p armaceutical and chemical industries, and environmental applications, as well as policy and regulatory issues. It says that although the development of pharmaceutical products is flourishing, cash problems are becoming more acute as start-up companies move toward development and marketing. Available tor S13 from the U.S. Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402-9325. with no math at all and still be a science major." The biggest problem for all three groups seems to be the absence of a "nurturing" environment-leading many stu dents to feel that "nobody re ally cares whether you're there or not," said Shirley Malcom of AAAS. Jules Lapidus, president of the Council of Graduate Schools, added that this prob lem is especially striking at re search universities, where the atmosphere is more one of "weeding" than of nurturing, and where faculty, preoccupied with grubbing for funds, have "almost no time for students any more." As might be predicted, the survey found that the best pro grams "are also the most costly and staff-intensive." Other hall marks of effective programs: using "hands-on" approaches; continuous, multi-year involve ment with students; activities that include parents and teach ers, and commitment to such programs on the part of depart mental leadership. Gloomy Words From Soviet Physicist When Soviet physicist Sergei Kapitsa recently gave a public lecture in the Soviet Union about accelerators, he was at tacked by a man brandishing an ax, who accused him not only of being an architect of the Cher nobyl disaster, but an "enemy of the people" and a "Judomasonic conspirator." To Kapitsa, who is a lab head at Moscow's Institute for Physical Problems, an expert on accelerator design, and head of the Soviet Physical Society, the attack was a symptom of the tide of irrationality sweeping the country. During a visit to the AAAS last week, on his way to the World Bank to offer advice on how to help the USSR join the world economy, Kapitsaexplained that the disintegrating nation is facing a poisonous brew of ap.tisci ence sentiments, superstition, and extremist political thinking. With the dissolution of tradi tional authority, he said, antisci entific ideas are rushing into the ~acuum. The ideological cci 1s more profound in its 0 quences than the econom military collapse, he added ing "a loss of reference fo; dreds of millions of people. eruption of antiscientific 1 has "become a very acutes of that crisis. Kapitsa said that althow popular press and 1V no; freedom, they have abru responsibility. "Magazin contributing 10 times space to astrology than ence." He added: "We whole horde of people pro ing the idea of cold fusion comer of the world." Ev levels of government a immune to the mad1 Kapitsa said Boris Yeltsin dent of the Russian repub reportedly responded fai to a group asking 20 1 rubles for a method "to f heat from rocks." Kapitsa went on to : that the situation for SOI ence is going to get a lo, before it gets better. "I rl are heading toward a pn crisis .... At huge instil thousands of people will placed." Comparing d lapse of the USSR with1 of a major war, he said Germany's experienc1 World War II is any g will be decades before S( re-established on a fin ing. German science now coming back" as w1 ence, he said. "Sciencer twice as slowly from ; national catastrophe economy." New Canadian Medical Head The Medical Research ( MRC) of Canada hill president: Henry Friese of physiology and proi medicine at the Unive Manitoba, who was ap on 20 October by ther of National Health at fare. The MRC, whoscl bers serve without rcr tion, is one of three agencies supporting 1 SCIENCE,

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HOUSTON CHRONICLE~ HOUSTON, TEXAS 0.437,267 TX OCT 29 1991 BgtfREUPS U.S. biotech firms unprofitable despite ~!~g world's best century, according to the Off1ee of Teclmology Assessment. WASHINGTON The United States leads the world in biotechnology, but finding commercial applica tions for the industry's products is a slow-going process, according to a study released Monday. "To date, most U.S. biotechnology companies have no sales and have been losing money since their incep tion," said the report by the Office of Technol Assessment, which rees ogy for Con-gress. "Only one-ftftb of biotechnology rmns surveyed in 1990 were profitable." Since the industry burgeoned in the early 1980s, 15 biotecb drugs and vaccines have emerged on the market. Revenues from those products last year hit an estimated $Z billion. But 100 biotecb products now in human clinical trials will cost $5 billion to $10 billion to bring to market. Biotechnology, the engineering of genetic material to create drugs and other products, is espected to be the driving scientific force for the discovery of new medicines in the 21st --' The 1987 stock market crash virtu ally baited public stock offerings in biotech companies, which did not resume until early this year. The report says nearly $18 billion of new stock was sold between January and May, the biggest five-month sum ever for the industry. The United States maintains a ( biotech stronghold with 403 firms ._. devoted specifically to biotechnology and 70 major corporations with investments in the field. The report attributes U.S. domi_-t nance to a strong research base and the industrial capacity to convert ii" basic research into products. f Japan suffers from a lack of strong research, ''which has led firms to seek access to research and training abroad, especially in the United States," the report says. Japan's pharmaceutical industry, sheltered from international compe tition, has only recently refined drug development, testing and marketing, the report says. But the Japanese have an edge in producing amino acids and industrial enzymes. ---... 1 t

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I U.S. Biotechnology lndustry)s &rowth Is Hindered by Bottlenecks, Study Finds By UDAYAN GUPTA Sta.ff Reporter of THE w ALL STREET JOURNAL Lack of capital, as well as regulatory bottlenecks, are slowing the commercialization of U.S. biotechnology, a government report said. The study by the Office for Technp)ngy Assessmen~ited biotechnology "one of the keys to U.S. competitiveness during the years ahead," but acknowledged that many early claims about the industry were "premature." It emphasized that the competitiveness of U.S. innovation could very well rely on the "ability of biotechnology companies to stay in business." The study estimated that as much as $5 billion to SlO billion may be needed to develop the 100 or so biotechnology products currently in human clinical trials. "A bottleneck is developing as start-up companies attempt to move forward toward development, testing and marketing-the expensive part of the process," the study said. Capital for Later Stages Asked to comment on the conclusions, John Wilkerson of the Wilkerson Group, a biotechnology consultant, said, "The issue isn't start-up capital; it is capital for the later stages of development." "There's never any shortage of founders, but investors for follow-on rounds are hard to find," he said. As companies get closer to clinical trials and to the actual manufacture and marketing of drugs, their needs escalate enormously, he added. To be sure, biotechnology companies this year have raised an estimated $2.7 billion through stock and debt offerings, an amount that has more than met the industry's short-term needs, said Stelios Papadopoulos, a managing director of PaineWebber Inc. "The funding gap was far more severe nine months ago," he added. Still, Mr. Papadopoulos believes that new biotechnology start-ups and new products will create an even greater need for financing in the future. "Capital will continue to be a valuable and scarce resource for the industry," he said. Concern Over Foreign Investment Many new biotechnology companies in their search for capital will face mergers or acquisitions, the OTA study noted. "What concerns some observers is the role that foreign acquisition and investment will play in the fate of many of these vulnerable firms," the study said. However. it added that "there is insufficient evidence to state that U.S. commercial interests in biotechnology are threatened by foreign acquisition.'' The study noted that the patent application backlog at the Patent and Trademark Office, domestic and international uncertainties regarding what constitutes patentable subject matter. procedural distinctions in U.S. law and the spate of patent infringement litigation all are unsettled areas that could affect incentives for developing new inventions. "Biotechnology companies largely confront the same regulatory, intellectual property and trade policies faced by other U.S. high-technology firms ... but to date federal agencies have not seen the need to revolutionize their practices for biotechnology," the study said. Moreover, mechanisms established to provide federal coordination of activities related to biotechnology instead have become the center of interagency ideological disputes over the scope of proposed regulations, the study contended. FDA Resources A recent survey by the Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Association found that 21 new biotechnology drugs have completed clinical trials and are awaiting approval. An additional 111 are currently being tested in humans. But the trade group and other industry observers say that resources at the Food and Drug Administration-both in terms of scientists and funding-are not adequate.to "provide expeditious approval of important new drugs.'' The biotechnology research pipeline is on the "brink of a bottleneck," said Thomas L. Copmann, assistant vice president at the association. While it is true that the FDA lacks the resources to devote all the necessary attention to critical new drugs, "they have, nonetheless, worked out methods to grease the pipeline for dramatically effective therapeutics,'' said Roger Longman, editor of In Vivo, a Norwalk, Conn., biotechnol ogy newsletter. The success of Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. s Videx is one such example, he noted. Mr. Longman is convinced that the FDA is not the problem that the study makes it out to be. There's no question that the FDA could be further streamlined to make the regulatory process less onerous and less costly, he said. Still, he believes, "many companies are not doing all that they can do to approach the regulators nor are they crafting the most effective financing strategies to carry them through the process." i J I

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1NSI-DE BIOTECH U.S. leads in biotech research Money lacking for production By Sally Lebrman -,..J, OF THE EX.-el Sf/,ff t..4J.q~ U .S. BIOTECHNOLOGY leads the world, but ita preeminence depends on the ability of young companies with expensive ideas to stay in business, reports a new congressional study. The young industry has revolutionized acience and medicine and potentially will do the same for ag riculture. Actual product.a, howev er, have been slow to come, accord ing to the analysia by the~ T,rbnnloa Assessment, a re search arm of Congress. The report questioned the via bility of biotechnology as the figurehead for U.S. competitiveness in the world. "It's becoming difficult to pin point what is competitiveness in biotechnology," said Kevin O'Connor, who led the 2-yearproject. BIOTECH INVESTMENTS Venture capitalists have shied tlNS'J from biotechnology firms, Investing only a small portion of their funds In such companies. Total venture capital investments D Venture capital investments in biotechnology companies $4,000 -k [ qee BIOTECH, D-5] L-------=EXAMINER::-:-:::=:::GRAPH!CS:::::;;' _, ---.... -*lair~~to~ -SAN FRANc1sco cXE C~g2 0. 136,346 O 1 (crntrtf?. NOV 6 1991 ~
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REPOSITORY CANTON, OH Di\D.Y 59,200 ~y OCT 301991 50 8/f@LLE7 RL ... bk Scary loo~ into future \i,i!'lq,J The Office of Technology Assessment has peered into I this nation's oil future and has seen something scary. f-At present consumption rates, the OTA estimates that ]he United States will be importing three of every four /barrels of oil it uses within two decades. This means the nation will be vulnerable to political and economic black mail. The report was released just as the Senate is to begin deliberations over a national energy program. Here are some of the things the OT A, a source of technical and scientific advice for Congress, says can be
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.}.,~' I 7V CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM BV~!l,E~.u'S 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD/LN/NGSTON/NEW JERSEY 07039 (201) 992-6600 I (800)631-1160 October 29. 1991 12:00-1 :00 PM EST Cable News Network NewsHour Bobbie Battista. co-anchor: ACCOUNT NUMBER NIELSEN AUDIENCE 10/6297 Y N/A Well. a congressional report says the U.S. is growing increasingly dependent on imported oil. The report released Tuesday by the Office of Technology :\:-sc:--sment is urdni.! the C.S. to t~ke stc:ps to prot1.;ct itsdf against further supply disruptions. -The OTA says with U.S. production continuing to decline and demand increasing. the U.S. will probably import three-quarters of the oil it uses within two decades. Republican Senator Malcolm Wallop says the U.S. has placed itself in a dangerous situation. Senator Malcolm Wallop ( Republican. Wyoming): And it's absolutely inconceiv able that a nation so rich and blessed with a variety and multiplicity of energy resources that we have. would have allowed itself to become so deperi'dent on oil--imported oil as an energy source. No other country in the world would have allowed that to happen to itself. And those decisions have been essentially political. \Ve have coal. we have more domestic oil, we have uranium. we have natural gas. None of these things have been utilized to their full exte11t in the energy mix of America. Battista: The Senate is set to be1rin considering a broad reaching national ----------------~-"-' '-' energy program in the next few days. One key area of contention is the provision of a bill that calls for opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in northern Alaska to oil and gas drilling. Manv senators and environmental groups ha,e rnwed to block the bill from reachi~g the Senate floor because of that provision .:.i Clips \'ideo Cb~ette, Jre ;iY::t1L1ble in Jn, f,,rm:it for J peril1d l1f four week~ from :iir dJte from l,ur 3ff1li::tte: \ 11,s-() \'()'(]T(H/1'\(: -..:f1nwF-..: ni:-.l._\lH'.!C-l. 1....,-,-,:1:,.,~n-:n,11

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lnour -Time for the U.S. to adopt -reali~nergy policy /;.2C/1Y EDITORIAL For too long, the has-and production patterns continue. DESERET NEUs SALT LAKE cny. UT DAILY 60.ns WEDNESDAY OCT 301991 HE been without an energy policy, mereThat kind of dependence on for ly living from year to year and crisis eign supplies would be like living to crisis with no coherent, organized with a gun being held to the nation's plan for meeting needs for the energy bead by unstable Middle East king-that keeps the nation functioning. doms, friendly and otherwise. Earlier this year, President Bush Whatto do? unv~iled _a proposed ~ergy ~liey. Bush's program would dramatical. While an improvement, 1t eontained a ly increase domestic oil drilling, in, number of flaws. Co~ has not yet eluding environmentally vulnerable .. acted. areas such as the Alaskan Wildlife: Any detailed energy policy --.the Refuge and offshore oil fields, now only kind that .will be any good is closed to oil exploration. The presi certain to bring many beliefs and life: dent also would put more emphasis styles into conflict. Developers. enYi'!->on nuclear power and the develop. ronmentalists, the auto industry, mo,.i. ment of alternate energy sources. All torists, ~e coal industry. ~tilities and iot those approaches need to be pur others will all have their own views sued, but that's not enough. and agendas. l'he president appears to belong to Basically, the confrontation will be the lifestyle-as-usual camp since he between people who think Americans has been less enthusiastic about concan continue to live in the energyserving energy and has opposed high. profligate fashion they have in the er fuel economy standards for the past and those who realize that enerauto industry, even though transporgy resources are running out anc:l that tation is responsible for 63 percent of fundamental changes must be made. all U.S. oil use. The problem is that many politiBut conservation offers the fastest ciaos, and many ordinary Americans and biggest savings in reducing oil for that matter, refuse to think seriuse -and reducing the balance of ously about a potential until it is on payments deficit in the process. -'.'. 1 the doorstep. This is particularly true For example, more use could be of something that requires sacrifice made of natural gas and coal for utili or a change in basic lifestyle. ties. This could save up to a million 1 As the U.S. Senate prepares to con-barrels of oil a day. An auto fuel stan ~sider a far-reaching energy program, dard of 40 miles per gallon would ~. the Office of Technology Assessment save 3 million barrels a day. Taking ., released a.reiliort this week showing public transportation to work once a .how quickly e United States is run-week instead of driving equals a near -Ding out of domestic oil and how 20 percent cut in oil use. ~ heavily the country will have to deConserving energy makes good pend on foreign suppliers. sense in saving fuel, helping the envi ..,: In 1990, imports supplied 42 perronment, saving money and bolster cent of the country's oil needs, or 7.1 ing the nation. But the time to act is million barrels a day out of 16.9 mil-now. Every delay only brings an evenlion barrels being used. That 42 pertual crisis that much closer. Any nacent will rise to 75 percent in another tional energy policy should reflect two decades if current consumption that urgency. j

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. HOIJS i UN GHHUNIGLE HOUSTON, TEXAS 0.437,267 TX OCT 30 1991 Bw_lJRl'S .. ---~eport sees future _:oil threats to u .s. tmport reliance expected to increase ; ;qA'1'1Y . .. r,teuters News Service ~n ~ting dependence on foreign oll rtsa~ f' :iWASHING TON The United :~tes is losing its ability to respond -to disruptions in oil imports. making Jhe nation more vulnerable to a atoff in supply, a government re: ,art said Tuesday. i ,; The report by the Office of Tecb-noJogy A_Yssrneot which re; .aearches technology issues for Con: gress. said the country continues to ; grow more reliant on imported oil as domestic production declines and '. demand for energy increases. It said that within 20 years the United States may rely on imports : for as much as 75 percent of its oil 'needs, up from 42 percent last year. Tbe report, which updated a 1984 : agency study, said the country would lose about 5 million barrels of oil a day if Persian Gulf imports were cut off. Tbe United States consumes about 16.9 million barrels of oil daily. During the Persian Gulf crisis, the world lost 4.3 million barrels a day. The agency did not specify the amount of imports the United States lost during the crisis, but said Washington made up for the declines by using oil that was in transit and held in reserve. Reliance on oil replacement tech nologies is no longer enough to offset the threat of a major and prolonged disruption to oil supplies, the report said. "As the current world surplus in oil production capacity is reduced. the U.S. could face serious difficulties in responding to major oil supply dis. ruptions that persist for more than a few months," it said. Strategic oil reserves and advance preparations for possible supply emergencies must play a bigger role The U.S. strategic petroleum re serve had 586 million barrels at the end of 1990, or the equivalent of 83, days of petroleum imports. It is authorized to hold 1 billion barrels. In its 1984 study, the agency asTHE MOBILE REGISTER MOBILE, ALA. Al-147 D. 57,478 NOV 1 1991 YLt.~ sumed a disruption of imports would cost the nation 3 million barrels ot oil a day. It found that conservation., efficiency and use of alternati~ fuels could more than make up f the loss by generating 3.6 milli w -- ."\ d / t" "'"' / barre!s a day within five years. arlllflg JgDOfe .... ~. '.: '-:;;(:' The Senate Energy and Natura: ..,t Resourees Committee asked tht 'c.. rt ti agency to update the report after th "!'e hope all membersfof the (!,S: Sendate1:ire !1 d of~e ~Tportd e~~~1er 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait raisec this week ~hat wa~ed o a ~ontmumg ec mt: m. omes 1c O( pro uc ion renewed concerns about U.S. energ) coupled with ever-mcreasmg demand that will likely ~e~ult m ~e ~mted security. States having to import three of every four barrels of 0111t uses within two ta~ rzear th e Pnirts Sta~ obi d~~:~arning was not from industry, but rather from a congressional i m. o71irm& agency, the Office of Technol~Assessment. It was a timely report, or;ign dacounthe ': :.d. 00 coming only days before the nate plans to begin considering a re a u Y broad-reaching national energy program. And re~ce on forei"1 oil appean We hope it convinces enough senators that ~e do_ mdee~ have to st1:p to be growmg. In the third quarter~ up our domestic production wherever possible, mcludmg an Arctic 1991, the United States import refuge In Alaska. petroleum p~ucts at an ~. The OTA study said that although increased dependence on imports ~ate of $56 billion, up from $54 ~illioq does not itself translate into a serious national threat, the country's m th e secoDd quarter, according ability to replace foreign oil in event of a long-term disruption of the Commerce Department. imports is more precarious today than it was seven years ago. Thf: new report said current tech While imports supplied 42 percent of U.S. oil needs in 1990 -or 7.1 nologies could make up for about 2. million barrels out of a total daily consumption of 16.9 million barrels milli~ of the 5 ~Ilion barrels lost they are expected to account for 75 percent by the year 2010 if current a Pel'SlaJI Gulf-lik!! scenario. But m! consumption and domestic production patterns continue, the report domestic produc~~n fal~ the re.i estimated. placement capa.bi~ty would fall tc The OT A, which provides technical and scientific analysis for as low as 1.7. million barrels a day Congress, said several steps could be taken to lessen dependence on th e report said. foreign oil, including increasing automotive fuel efficiency and pushing It sai~ that domestic for the development and use of alternative fuels. production and_ improvmg replaceBecause transportation accounts for 63 percent of total U.S. 011 use, 1t ment tec~ologies would ~elp l~ "offers the largest potential opportunities for oil savings," the OT A ~d. vulnerability to a .~P~0n of im~ adding that among cars and small trucks "there is substantial potential ports, as would d~versifymg world for further fuel economy increases through purely technological petroleum production. means ... "But even with heroic efforts to exploitthese opportunities, the United States faces a future of high dependence on imports," the OTA added Americas reliance on oil imports, especially from the volatile Middlt East, prompted renewed efforts early this year in Congress and withir the Bush administration to develop a new long-term energy strategy That strategy should emphasize exploration of potentially oil-rid areas of this country from Florida to Alaska.

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i,anjf'ranmto SAN FRANCISCO, CAL D.136,346 CA-592 OCT 3 0 19 911 Bu&gEUIS l I 1New adriionition to save oil Study warns of U.S. energy dependen~ By Jamea R. Owen I n'o--~ '"\ notably Energy and Natural Reported oil," said Karen Larsen, sources Committee Chairman J. chief author of the study. "Major Bennett Johnston, D-La. op-and prolonged import disruptions pose mandated conservation meawould bring hardship and deprivasures. tions." Environmentalists have made In the event of another oil dis-defeat of the Alaskan driffing proruption like the one caused EXAMINER WASHNGTON BUREAU V WASHING TON .:_ Unlesa~ vision of Johnston's energy develyear following the Iraqi invasion o Americans increase energy conseropment bill their top legislative priKuwait or the Iranian oil boyco vation or find new domestic ,Lrity. They back a proposal that in 1979 -"We would really hav sources, the United States will be would increase gasoline mileage to scramble," Larsen said. forced to import more than 75 permandates 40 percent by 2001. Examiner news services cent of its oil within 20 years, a The OT A report stressed that tributed to this report. congressional study said Tuesday. while growing oil-imports depenThe Office of Technology Asdence is not a serious security seseroent, a congressional research threat in itself, the nation's capaci agency, said the nation needs ty to replace foreign oil has greater energy conservation mea-dropped considerably since the sures and increased energy producmid-1980s, which could pose probtion to counter reliance on foreign leme in the event of a crisis. oil. To counter U.S. dependence on The United States now imports foreign oil, the OTA study recom about half of the 17 million barrels mended: of oil consumed daily. Inc~ing fuel efficiency of Th OT A study leased automobiles. just ~ys before the ;s:a.:: is ex-U:rs. More efficient use of oil by all pected to act on controversial enerShift. gy legislation that would allow oil mg m.ore re~1dential, d tr th .._ commercial and mdustrial energy ~g in e ni-ctlc National users to other fuels such as coal Wildlife Re~, man~te that fednatural gas or renewable fuels. eral and pn~ate vehicle fleets use Accelerating th tr 'ti to some non-oil fuels, restructure al e 8?81 on l t tilty gutat d temat1ve transportation fuels e ec nc. u 1 re 1ona an such 88 natural gas. streamline the licensing process for "If a crisis lasts ti yth' nuclear power plants. or an mg more than a few months, it's going Both the Bush administration to be tough to come up with doand some influential lawmakers mestic replacements for that im\

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PATRIOT HARRISBURG, PA DAILY 56,571 THURSDAY OCT 311991 l J /hffl.'lf'l l F'9 ZG )C .bk f:_ \_ v energy imports F C9,15.~rvation begets independence H ~'s'rdoA Y'S BASIC ecothey also helped create the oil glut N nomlcs problem: If Import-that pushed prices back down from Ing 45 percent of our oil in their highs in the late 19708 and tile 19708 led to skyrocketing pricearly 1980s. and long lines at the gas pumps, But the country is going back what will the year 2010 be like ward, not forward, on fuel savings. ilhen 75 percent of our petroleum Accordlns to the U.S. Envtronmen- comlns from abroad? tal Protectlon Asency, the fuel 1 This is the projection of the..0.f:. economy of 1992 model cars Is tee_ of __ Technology Assessment, an down, the sixth year In a row in arm of Consress. It should come u which there hu been a decline. ao surprise. ID recent months, the Congress Deeds to raise fuel econo; tlmted States has been lmportbls my standards rather than permit much u 50 percent of Its oil and tins them to continue to fall. there is no reason to suspect that that trend will do anythlns but continue upward. Domestic production of. oil Is on a Ions slide. While recent discovertu of major new oil reserves in -. water In the Gulf of Mmco. Shell, Exxon and Conoco sugdlt that siplflcant deposits of do aaestic oil remain to be dllcovered, tiaere Is almost no expectation that -.w finds will keep up with the tlecllne of America's old oil fields. Ito territory in the world has been iltc)re thoroushly explored and dnlled than the United States. ;.~, The or A study is particularly tl.mely In that It comes u the U.S. Senate considers energy le8fslation that depends Iarsely on increued dqmestlc production, lncludlns drilBii,1 in America's last Iarse expanse Qf true wilderness, the Arctic Na UpDal Wildlife Refusee. The study aotes that development of this and other "frontier'' areas would have Dttle relevance to possible oil clisruptiou in the next decade, since ttiey would require at least that Ioag to brins to production. There are policies, however, that would extend the nation's oil supply and leave the country far less vulnerable to supply disrup tions from abroad and the kind of international blackmail attempted in the 1970s. At the head of the list is conser vation. The fuel economy standards enacted in the 1970s have not only saved an enormous amount of oil, THE NATION needs, u well, to,., provide greater incentives and en-i ; couragement to alternatives to th81 petroleum-powered automobile. Pennsylvania and elpt other East, em states are to be commended for Jointns tosether in adoptlns the f California standard for cleaner cars, a move that requires by the end of the decade that a percentage of cars be powered by batteries and other alternative fuels. Commuters also need alternatives to the automobile in the form of mass transportation._ including creation of a lipt-rall system in Central Pennsylvania with Harris burs u its hub. This and existing under-funded. mass-transit systems could be financed throup a modest increue in the state auonne tax -perhaps five cents on the gallon which also would serve to encour ase further conservation. Such a au tax Increase is not unreasonable lfven that, when adjusted for inflation, gasoline prices currently are within a few cents of their all-time low, even accountins for recent excise-tax increues. There is no reason why 2010 or even sooner hu to loom u a kind of enerlY doomsday. Actins now to require Increased fuel efficiency, sreater enerlY conservation gener ally and by promoting nonpetro leum alternatives can avoid the dis ruption and panic-induced solutions that are inevitable unless the nation implements wise policies to end its oil gluttony.

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I 1 Jbiludpbia Jnquim PHILADELPHIA, PA. 0.519,895 PA-475 OCT 30 19 91 Bvmuu.rs j U.S. may have to import 75% of its oil, study says By H. Josef Heben 0 J4 t""/ \) "frontier production," such as in the increased dependence on imports Auoc1a,..., ,,.... J refuge, but by drilling in existing did not in itself translate into a seriW ASHINGTON The United States fields, enhancing oil recovery and reous national threat, the country's Will have to impon three-fourths of opening shut or marginal wells. ability .to replace foreign oil in its oil within t\\!O decades Without "Remote areas such as tile Alaska event of a 1Qn8"term disruption of increased domestic production and National Wildlife Refuge and fronimports is more precarious today better conservation, a congressional tier offshore areas even if they than it was seven years ago. study con~luded yesterday. were opened to exploration and com The ~A, which pr~vides technical The,.Offlce of Technolop: mercial quantities of oil or gas were and scientific analysis for Congress, ment repart siua1lie percentage of found_ would be of little relevance suggested several steps to lessen de011 commg from abroad could inin responding to a significant oilpendence on foreign oil, including:-: crease from 42 percent now to as impon disruption Within the next Pushing for more efficient use of much as 7S percent by the year 2010. decade,'' the OTA study said. oil by all users. A broad program of c~n~rvation, Johnston acknowledged thatactiv Shifting more residential, commer1 inclu~ng more fuel-efftc1ent ca~, ity on existing oil fields should be ciat,. and industrial-energy users to j factones and homes, and domesuc increased, but he maintained that other fuels such as coal, natural gas 1 prod~ction Iner~ would only industry at current oil prices is not or renewable fuels. marginally affect i~pon levels, the likely to do so Without government Increasing cars' fuel efficiency. OTA researchers said. t i ti h' h Co has A 1 ti th t t t 11 "Even with heroic efforts to exax ncen ves, "'. ic ngress cce era ng e :r:ansi 10n o a ploit (conservation and production! given no indication of providing. ternative transponauon fuels such opponunities, the United States races The OTA study said that although as natural gas. ---._) a future of high dependence on imports," the OTA said. The study was embraced yesterday by key supponers or a broad-ranging energy bill that the Senate is ex pected toconsider Within days. While including some conserva tion measures, the bill, depends heavily on increased production, in cluding opening an arctic refuge in nonhern Alaska to drilling. "This study is as good an argument (for the energy legislation) as you Will get," said Sen. Malcolm Wallop CR., Wyo.), a key sponsor or the en ergy package. Sen. Bennett Johnston (D., La.), another principal crafter of the bill, also cited the OTA findings as proof that any energy package must in clude expanded domestic produc tion, including taking oil from the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. At least eight senators have vowed to block the Johnston-Wallop energy bill from getting to the floor because it calls for oil development in Alaska. Critics of the measure noted that although the OT A study cites the need to increase domestic oil production, it also concludes that the answer to curbing the growth of imports over the next 10 years is not in developing

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,...: .-1;:. ~lllt,i,l,,ii~~-=-::----.....c--NEIi YORK, NY OAILY 23,270 FRIDe\Y NOV 11991 791 B:YQRftfG .a BF' Report: US May Import) 75 of Its Oil by 2010 ; .. ~--=:' .. ,,~ .. By ANNE REIFENBERO 1 Congress swiftly authorized develop-~= E:~_:-:J:.~ ~f~,1;; ., its oil abroad by 2010 if it doesn't haps as many as 12. : .. :,,~:-: '.]_< -Jesa and produce more, accord"For the nearer term, the belt -,u. ~.:=-: ~s.:; ~=!;5 }/ji~~~:L, Tbe~ !ySJtffl&&"port~ :ffJ!IY~~:'1~~.~~-a~-di-'. ,_,,-.,.,:: _:':;,::,:. ,iiii---.li ty," released Tuesday, conconcluded, referring to ex1st1na claded that the nation's 42% fields that are made to yield mo~ .,1..tence on.foreign crude and pe-through horizontal drilling,~ tre1e11m products could rise to 75% recovery and other methods: .... la tlie mst 20yean if there are not The report also empflasized stepl fg if at gains in conservation and other than production that the DiP I 1tie oatpat. tion could take to reduce its dependii "Ba wea with heroic efforts to ence. on imports. They include -,lllit tlaele opportunities, the Unit-switching commercial and industri,al ....... faces a future of high deusers of oil to coal, natural gas 01; 11111 ee on imports: the report renewable fuels; accelerating die lllill,: '"Dramatic and sustained ef-tramition to alternative transpo~~ llltll -id be required to hold down tion fuels such as natural gas; an4 overto athleve elne: increasing motor vehicle fuel --...,.. ........ ciency. ~--, ~-Because the transportation sector TIit CYrA Is a congressional agen-accounts for 63% of all U.S. oil ua, cytllal pnrides technical and scien-the report said~ it "offers the largest ti&_.,.. for both the House and potential opportunities for oil sa.v: ....._ ings." It noted that "there is sutista. Slftpurten of the enerc bill tial potential for further fuel eco~ ...., by President Bush were my increases ttfrough purely ..-le_ parade the OTA report as technological means now availabl~ Jn1f tliat Congress should allow deto manufacturers of cars and trucb: I Id in the coastal plain of the However, the energy bill befori National Wildlife Refuge in the Senate does not.propose that f~ Alalla.. efficiency standards be increasedt "Tlfi' study Is u good an argudue to strenuous opposition from tile .._-. JOO will gt!t." said Sen. Mal-Bush administration, which has a1!" eella Wallop, R-Wyo. He ls a co-gued that the ailing domestic au~ .,_ of the energy bill that would industry could not stand the ec~ opea die plain to oil and gas leasing. nomic blow of being forced to Pl"O.':' SUD. tile report noted that even if duce more-efficient models. .. /

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RADIO CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD i LIVINGSTON/ NEW JERSEY 07039 (201J 992-6600 I (212) 227-5570 I (800) 631-1160 October 30. 1991 8:00-9:00 AM MT Business Radio Network BRN News Sandra Johnson reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 10/6297 Y A government report shows the United States is losing its ability to respond to disruptions in oil imports. Joe Carlton has more on the study by the Office 0f Techm,lm~v A~se.,._ment. Joe Carlton reporting: The report says the country continues to grow more reliant on imported oil as domestic production declines and demand for energy increases. It says that within twenty years the U.S. may rely on imports for as much as seventy-five percent of its oil needs. up from forty-two percent last year. The report. which updates the 1984 agency's study says the country will lose about five million barrels of oil a day if Persian Gulf ports are cut off. The U.S. consumes about 16.Q million barrels of oil daily at this time. The report says reliance 1.m oil replacement technologies is no longer enough to offset the threat of a major and prolonged disruption to oil supplies. It says strategic oil reserves and advance preparations for possible supply emergendes must play a bigger role in limiting dependence on foreign oil. rm Joe Carlton. Hi Clips

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... -~---' J lt~it~~ !iii{~ ~--J. ... ~:.. LAWRtNCtVILLt, GA DAILY ",059 THURSDAY OCT 311991 l.58 BVM.f~~E'S -.cd XL __ ,_ u nleainedlesSOil .. E ~~q,i~ What's that old say\ng about the unlearned lessons of history doomed to repetition?' Such seems the case for our continued dependence on foreign oil. Domestic production continues to decline and demand to increase. The United States probably will import three of every four barrels of oil it uses within two decades, a congressional agency predicted this week : The Office or Technology Assessment t.eleased its report only days before the Senate plans to begin considering a broad-reaching national energy pro gram. The OTA study said that although mcreased dependence on imports does Jiot itself translate into a serious national threat, the country's ability to replace foreign oil -in event of a long-term disruption of imports -is more precarious today than it was seven years ago. Here are the figures. Imports supplied 42 percent of U.S. oil needs in 1990 and are expected to account for 75 percent by the year 2010 if current consumption and domestic production patterns continue, the report estimated. It doesn't have to be that way: :_ The OTA, which provides technical and scientific analysis for Congress, says several steps could lessen dependence on foreign oil, including: -r Our dependence on foreign oil lurks as potential danger~ Pushing for more efficient use of oil by all users. r~ Shifting more residential, commercial and industrial energy users to other :. -r fuels such as coal, natural gas or renew-able fuels Increasing the fuel efficiency of automobiles. Accelerating the transition to alternative transportation fuels such as natural gas. Will any of these things happen? It doesn't seem likely. And even if they did, neither greater auto fuel efficiency nor opening the refuge to oil production would likely reduce U.S. dependence on imports for years. Americans have been shocked at least twice -once in the mid-1970s and again in this year's war with Iraq -by our dependence on a resource controlled by others. It doesn't seem we learned our lesson, however, which probably means we'll suffer it again. ~7_ --~~~--,..,,,.,..........., _______ ___._____ ________

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Betroit .lf ree !)ress DETROIT, Ml. DAILY 636,182 Ml-79 OCT 18 1991 A!l6.1JRtrs Study :; "'.,.1 ha I ,.,,,:. C z-~ .. ; '!~ mil ~ eage::! ... ,, !: ~t -~ Free ~Staff "Im Wires :~ WASHINGTON -A major study contending cars can be siw. nificantly more fuel efficient out being much smaller or less saW appears to shoot holes in.~ the auto industry's criticism~ tough federal mileage Pl'Ol>Osar.3 The congressional Office TechnologL Assessmen Thursday tliat its study sho automakers could average miles per gallon for new vehicl the year 2001 without major cuts or safety problems. The report comes as the prepares to begin debate week on various mileage bills. :.,, -The nation's Big Three a makers and their foreign com tors have long maintained major fuel economy improv: cannot be achieved without cars smaller. But the OTA_study said, w given enouglt""time, automak6 can significantly improve economy without down-sizing -~ though with some weight reduo: tion." ,< The congressional resear~ countered the scary rhetoric of~ Big Three and the Bush a~ tration about the potential safdt, impacts of increased fuel effici&-, cy. The auto industry has funding TV and newspaper ad& that feature a U.S. Department'.d; Transportation test showin& ; a: head-on collision between a and large car. :::~ In contrast, the OTA said primary danger of any car-si7.e cutir. to attain higher mileage levelr would be from cars rolling ave(; "not the vehicle-to-vehicle sions now at the center of pub&: attention." And such rollover dip,: gers could be mitigated by bet1l!rt design and brakes, the OT A The report indicated, it also would be wrong to there are little or no po safety risks from higher mile-, levels. "Assertions OD both sides debate .. are frequently flaweti misleading," the OTA said. : ._ The Nadonal Highway T Safety Administration said it not yet reviewed the report possible comment But in a statement, General Motors, Fi and Chrysler said the OTA re was not balanced and has new infonnation." The OTA did not consider sumer trends and the indus financial condition as much as, should have, the Big Three The OT A mileage forecasts of m.p.g. or more for the year 20 "are pure speculation. No one cia reasonably forecast fuel pri market conditions and techno ical developments that far into future,'' the automakers said. The current federal mil requirement is an average of 2 m.p.g. for each automaker's fleet of cars. Seo. J. Bennett Johnston, La., wants to increase mileage ti, certain percentages to an es ~. ed 30 m.p.g. by 1996 and 35 m. by 2001. Percentage incr proposed by Sen. Richard B~ D-Nev., would result in even high,.' er levels, of 34 and 40 m.p.g.

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.-" 'Buttalo News BUFFALO, NEW YORK D. 308,714 NY-123 OCT 21 1991 8U~REUJ!'S Safety and economy possible C
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VHlLAUELPHlA L~ijLJLkt~ PHILADELPHIA, PA DAILY 519,895 FRIDAY OCT 18 1991 475 ~U.E'S PI e.aa .a .... Cq~ can burn less fuel, bcit~tay sol(!, report says 11';'~~TON -~J,;\Qjbould ~~le 't: build more fuelefftcrent V)lhicles by the year 2001 Without affecting passenger safety, said a new government report. Given time to develop new designs. automakers could either build moreremcent large cars or build smaller cars that are nevertheless safe, s,Jd testerday's report by the Office of TecbnoloSsAssessment. The report said that although tuelonomy standar should irdt exceetl 30 liailes per gallon by 199d, automakers could meet standards of about 35 m.p.g. by 2001 and 45 m.p.g. or higher by 2010. Passenger safety could be affected, the GAO said, if tougher mileage standards were required "over ,i period too short to allowsubstantial redesjp -::: forcing manufacturers to try to sell a higher percentage of small cars of current design." Slid the arA, a nonpartisan agency t;bat STATEN ISUND ADVANCE STt\TEN ISl.t\ND, NV DAILY 76,006 THURSDAY OCT 171991 belps-O>naress understand highly technical issues. -Automakers Dt>~ are required to maintain a corporate avenge fuel S61. Bvm~ economy..:... or OWE-or at least '11 .S m.p.g. for the overall fleet of cars ( '. -:-1. BJ they iell 'i,itlie country. But a btll heading to the Senate shortly would ( require the Transportation Department to set new CAFE standards. f f ff -Sen. BeJlDettJobnston (D., La.), cbairman ofthe Energyand Natunl ue e fCfency ga,n need ot Reso~~Committee, who requested the report, said be would in~ n duce aii. atnendment calling for specific CAFE numbers-30.2 m.p.g. f f C byA~:s~::e:~:~ :,~3:o standards sharply. sacr1 ice SQ ety, ongress told They .HY t;at they would have to make cars smaller and_ less safe \ ASSOCIATED PRESS b.1..'?"'1 (./ and tliit copsumers do not want smaller cars. V could be improved over time. "To reach the higher levela, something must be done to make consumWASHl.~GT_ON Significant By 2010, with the employment ers want the cars," said Ron Defore, a spokesman for the Coalition for I future gams in automobile fuel of new technologies, fleet targets VebiOMt Choice, which opposes tougher mileage standards. economy can be made without of up to 45 mpg or even higher If ~on'lakers must build smaller cars to meet new standards, the making cars substantially smallmight be achievable and practiprim~ danger would be more rollover accidents-not collisi;ons, the er and less safe than they are cal, the report said. OT A ~-.However, the report said, better tires, bead-injury protection I now, the co=onal Office of p d 1 and l!Dtt-lock bnkes could reduce the chance or rolloven. Tecb&1olo,.v _____ m?::-, .,~ en mg egislation pending 15,1 -iUU...W~ould require each auto maker to ., .. improve efficiency by 20 percent, Auto makers and other critics to about 34 mpg, by 1996 and an of attempts to make substantial additional 20 percent, to about 40 / improvements in fuel economy mpg, by 2001. standards have consistently said OT A said a fleet target for 1996 that further significant fuel econ-probably should not exceed 30 omy improvements cannot be mpg, given the four-to-five year achieved without making cars lead time required to produce new I s~~ller. and more dangerous. automobiles. If given enough time, auto makers can significantly improve But it said U.S. cars could fleet economy without down-siz-achieve a substantially higher ing though with some weight fuel economy level by 2001. reduction and probably without "New fleet averages on the oran adverse safety impact," an der of 35 miles per gallon or so OTA report said. should be possible," it said. / The National Highway Traffic The report said the debate over Safety Administration, said it had the relationship between fuel not seen the new report and thereeconomy and safety has at times fore was not ready to comment on "become overheated. it. "Assertions on both sides seek-The current fuel economy stan-ing to demonstrate the magnitude dard for new cars is 27.5 miles per of risk are frequently flawed or gallon. hut the report said this misleading," it said.

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f cJ./On 7V CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM BU~!l,EUPS 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD/LNINGSTON/NEW JERSEY 07039 (201) 992-6800 I (800)631-1160 October 19. 1991 1::nn Noon-1:llO PM The Monitor Channel Money + You William Bruce Dredge. host: ACCOUNT NUMBER NIELSEN AUDIENCE 10/6:97 Y N/A lt appears the domestic car industry is still stuck in neutral. Figures for the first ten days of October indicate a sales drop of more than eleven percent. despite the lure of l Q9: modds. Industry analysts say consumers still don appear confident enough in the economy to pay higi1er prices on the newer models. Automakers may ha\'e to add rebates or cut production in the fourth quarter to keep inYentories from building up. Another factor is the absence of large-scale t1eet buying by car rental companies and corporations. Meanwhile. Chrysler is investing one billion dollars to bolster its position and better compete globally. The number three automaker has opened a billion dollar tech center in Detroit designed to reduce the time it takes to develop and manufacture new cars. :.: ::: :: {Dredge continues to report on Ch0sler's new tech center.) Dredge: Meanwhile. the Congressional Office of T echnolo~y Assessment says carmakers can make major gains in fuel economy without making vehicles substantially smaller or less safe:!. Car manufacturers have disagreed with such findings in the past. but this latest study says. with the use of new technologies. it should be possible for cars to get forty-five miles per gallon by the year :o 10. up from the current twenty-seven-and-a-half miles per-gaUcn standard. Already at least one hpanese carmaker is touting a new engine design that dramatically boosts fuel efficiency. plus marketing analysts say they expect fuel efficiency to become a key selling point for cars in the '90s. October 17. 1991 6:55-6:59 AM MT ABC Contemporary News Gil Fox reporting: Auto makers could get an average of thirty miles per gallon by 1996 and thirtyfi\'e MPG by :oo 1 with no change in current size or performance of cars, !-n says a new study hy the Offics-of Technology Assessmen.1. That study is expected to have a big impact on the upcoming senate debate on energy legis lation. Auto makers have told members of congress that pushing the current standard of twenty-seven and a half miles per gallon would compromise vehicle s:1fetv. j

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RADIO CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIEW ROAD I LIVINGSTON I NEW JERSEY 01039 1201 J 992-6600, (212! 221-5510 I 1800) 631-1160 October 2 l. 1991. 10:00 AM-12:00 Noon NPR Morning Edition Bob Edwards. host: ACCOUNT NUMBER 10/6297 Y This week Congress is expected to take up proposals that would require a drastic impnwement in the fuel efficienl'Y of new cars sold in the United States. Cur.rent law requires that each automakers fleet average "27 1/"2 miles a !Z.ailon. Tilt: Se11ak wiU ~onsid~r b-.10s:in.:: th~1t to more that -W miles a gallon. American car companies argue that such an increase would force them to build smaller cars and thereoy sacrifice passenger safety. But a new government study refutes that claim. From Detroit. Don Gonyea reports. Don Gonyea reporting: Automakers :icknowledge that there is room for impro\ement in the fuel efficiency of the cars and light trucks they build. But they suggest a time table that would have them increase mileage by 10 percent. or about three miles per gallon. o\er the next decade. That. howe\er. is not nearly good enough for Ne\'ada senator. Richard Bryan. who wants to see corporate average fuel economy standards increase nearly 13 miles per gallon by the year "2001. Now the Con~ressional Office of T echnologv Assessment has come up with some recommendations of its own. Researcher Ste\'e Plotkin. Ste\'e Plotkin t Resean:her): A middle ground estimate for the year 200 l is something in the order of around 35 miles per gallon. which is about a 25 percent impnwement o\er what we ha\e today. Gonyea: Plotkin says e.ising the strict requirements of the Bryan proposal would allow ~1utomakers to implement design changes more gradually. which. he :-,ws. wou!,.;I .1i\ow them to build hiirh~r mil..::.:ige cars without making the vehicle sn1aller and less safe. -tSUMtvlARY: Gonyea's report on the fuel efficiency and safety of future cars continues "ith further comments from Plotkin.) "21 Clips

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~t ~tlanta 3f ourna{ ATLANTA, GA. 0.191,811 GA-30 NOV 13 1991 ._/ -~ I fOreign~ 111oving ahead, of U.S. in mass transport ~~hnology .. ... I BJ Jeff Nesm1th ~c 1 / WASHINGTON IURIAU ': -WashiftBton -.High-speed, clean running magnetic leYitation trains cbuld be whooshing through America's most coniested transportation corridors in the next decade -but chances are they wilfnot be made in America. Companies in Japan andGennany, are positioning themselves to control the 21st century market for "maglev'' vehicles, as th budding industry is :.ialll!d, a congressional report says. __..,___ -.. The QM'AIIJllrin also are working on tiltrotor aircraft, which take off like helicoptersand fty like. airplanes, and. see the United Sta~ as a key market fol,' both technol according ,~o the {:9n gressional Assessment (OTA). A similar_~dy was toi. issued tooay by the National Academy of Sciences. "In fact, U.S. research activity foa;all mass transportation declined steadily through the 1980a,u the OTA. report ,. said. From SQ-milJioaia.1-. Federal Railroad Administratioa outJaya for re-' : ~h. bad dropped to about S7 million in 1989. Lack of federal support of maglev.train&has given Japan and Germany a five-to 10-year lead in bringing the ve., hkles to Ille market, the OTA said. --~ead of steel wheels, maglev trains are propelled on a cushion of JIU,1gnetic forces and travel several hun dred miles per hour. Because they are powered by electricity, they are not de pendent on petroleum, the source of 97 percent of U.S. transportation energy. The new technologies could find po tential markets in Atlanta, Chicago _and Denver, which have the country's most. congested air terminals, and in ground transportation loops in F1orida. Califo~nia, Texasand the Northeast, 1the"OTAi report said. A German consortium, Transrapid International, has invested more than $1 billion on a maglev prototype and will begin construction of the first i:ommer cial U.S. version next .year in Orland~ Although many financial ~uestions remain unanswered especially the.cost of acquiring rights of way and building magnetic track "guideways" for the trains -the advantages of hill -speed, quick acceleration, quiet tion,.enel'ff .,_fficiency and the,abilit, !O move enormous numbers of peop}eha~e been suffici~nt.to cause concern amQng possibie 'competitors, the OTA said~ : ~: For,exam~e. Southwest Airlines. has lobbled~ against using ~ublic .~ds ~o buil4 high-speed raiil lin~, s1milat; so~ way&,J t~ maglev trams, betw~n~ central Texas cities where it opera~~--. The Uhited States essentially tenJII~ nated government support for magl8!, technology in 1975, OTA said. .: r l

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! PITTSBURGH PRESS PITTSBUR8H, PA DAILY 231,910 TUESDAY OCT 15 1991 443 llE:R(WllE'S ZR e.09 .a .... V --. -j. Report says maglev study requires more aid By Lee B011D1an Tb9 Pi. ttsbargb PreH "'~ '/ 7)1 WASHINGTON Magnetic-levitation train travel is technically feasible between cities up to 500 miles apart, but the cost of building guideways may limit commercial use, according to a congressional report. Developing a full-scale maglev prototype within the next decade will require between $800 million and $1 billion in federal aid, more if support for research into a "next generation" of American-made technology is included, said the congressional Office of Technology At~~Dl~f!L m a study releasea uuay. "Maglev requires further devel opment and local demonstration before it could. enter intercity ser vice in this country," the report said. The OTA suggested that compet ing Japanese and German maglev technologies, as well as high-speed trains using rails, be given equal consideration for research and de velopment fundini from the federal government. OT A, an ann of Congress that reviews scientific matters, was asked to study ma~lev last year by the House Appropnations Commit tee, as well as by the late Sen. John Heinz, R-Pa. The study also reviewed the feasibility of using tilt rotor aircraft, like the Navy's V-22 Osprey, to carry intercity passengers. John Kapala, head of Maglev Inc., which wants to build a demon stration maglev system between Downtown and Greater Pittsburgh International Airport, said the re port, based on drafts he has seen, "is more favorable than not." But he expressed concern that tilt-rotor and maglev were lumped together. "The government has spent billions of dollars in developing tilt rotor planes, but scarcely a dime on maglev. _When they've spent that kind of money on the trains, then they can compare them." Kapala said he understands the pressure to regain an American technological edge on maglev, but "our approach has been that we support demonstration of existing technology now, vs. spending bitlions on development for another decade." For next year, Congress has allocated $12 million for maglev, including a $500,000 plaMing grant for the Pittsburgh project. But the $12 million is about $3.5 million less than the Bush administration sought. Kapala said he was particularly encouraged that the report urges Congress to make rights-of-way for high-speed trains more available and affordable. Ultimately, the report said, some standard type of guideway for all maglev trams will have to be devel oped, no matter whether German, Japanese or American-made vehi cles are used. Prototype systems developed so far are incompatible. Joseph Vranich, vice presidfnt for public affairs with the High Speed Rail Association, said the report "is a step in the right direc tion toward better understanding of high-speed trains." But in a response to a draft of the report, he complained that it "could give Americans the erroneous impression that no U.S. conidor has the travel conditions or transit con-nections likely to make high-speed train systems successful." The report said a ma~lev route charging fares competitive with airlines would need 3 million to 5 million passengers a year just to cover the cost of the guideway over 20 years. "It is not clear that either of these types of services will provide enough relief for intercity conges tion and delays to serve as a cost effective investment for federal transportation dollars," the report said. "However, without some public willingness to finance infra structure, neither technology will be realized as an option." \

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,. .:o,upporrers 01 ~-speea CaJ! see great leap m ~ple-movmg WlJc. 7i~ /0-3/-'1/ By David Field ll4E ~TON TIMES High-speeci'rail'pajsenger trains are coming. n-ue believers have been chanting 1t for years. but now it's a lot closer to hap pening. High-speed trains,. using a variety of technologies, could cut a Washington-to New York trip from two hours 20 minutes on the futest Amtrak Metroliner to less than an hour. They're also envisioned as an efficient tool to link close city pairs su,;h as W&shington and Baltimore or Dallas and Fort Worth. Bacms of high-speed rail, who met here iast week, cite the following inside the-Beltway milestones: The Senate last week passed a bill to develop high-speed technologies. Increased money for research sur vived in the tranSportation spending bill. A three-agency project on magnetic levitation for trains is already starting studies. gineerinlf,-'tracts. The project is the first atep', in. a planned SS.7 b111ion, 6:zo.mile $Jltawide s,stela. .,. Clwl..,Pu~llllO-~ "High-speed rail was not even on the Waahington radar screen two years ago," says Donald M. Itzkoft', a longtime proponent of rail travel who is now a key staft'er to the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and 'Ihmsportation. More than S4.3 million in research contracts have been awarded. Out in the real world, there's progress as well: A short but" crucial test project in Orlando, Fla., is close ID beginning con struction. Several cities in Ohio and Southern California have official backing for proj ects. "The Qlllcept has withstood the reces-'lion, which is testimony to the power of the idea;' Mr. Itzkoff told the High Speed An ambitious S2.1 billion, 256-mile 'lllxa8 project has awarded its first en-As the states grow more intereated, Ill does Congress. RfilS From page Cl Rail Association. Like other backers, he's pleased that on Oct. 22 the Senate passed its most far-reaching bill on high-speed rail. The measure -orders the 'Ihmsponation Department, along with the Energy Department and the Army Corps of Engineers, to decide by the spring of 1993 what technol ogy should be used. The three agencies have already begun working together under a research grant in last year's budget, and the DOT's Federal Railroad Ad ministration has awarded 27 contracts worth S4.3 million tor tech nical studies. Among the contract winners is a unit of Bethesda-based Martin Marietta Co. "This is not a competition be i-en cono:epts;' but a way to deter mine what is available and what will work best, says Stuart Kissinger, an Army Corps of Engineers official who is deputy director of the Na tional Maglev Initiative, as the proj ect is known. By 1993, the initiative will have to address the problems of competing high-speed technologies, foreign dominance in rail manufacturing, seed money and local land-use oppo sition. Rail industry suppliers and high tech companies are major backers of high-speed rail, but they are split between traditional trains and mag lev. Maglev, short for magnetic levita tion. is a generic term for electri cally powered trains that are lifted above a specially designed guideway by magnetic forces. A train's move ment is created by the magnets within the vehicle opposing the magnets within the guideway. Because the maglev cars and guideways do not actually touch, there is no resistance and very high speeds -up to 400 mph -are pos sible. As a comparison, Amtrak Metro liners reach 110 mph. With maglev, an hour's rail trip could be cut to 15 minutes. The 275-mile trip between Las Vegas and Anaheim, Calif., could be made in 83 minutes. accordine tn Trar"-;ran1d f""unit of a German high-speed-rail group. Although maglev requires its own roadbed and can't be used on existing rail lines, it requires far less room than either regular train tracks or highways, and can be ele vated above the ground. Some traditional rails have achieved very high speeds. 1be TGV line in France, which links Pans and Lyon, exo:eeds 135 mph, but has bro ken records on test runs. In Japan, the famed Bullet trains regularly op erate at 127 mph. The Swedish-built X-2000, which tilts to maintain high speeds on curves, will be tested on Amtrak's washington-New York-Boston line next year. In Pittsburgh, industry, labor and local governments have created a consortium that would manufacture maglev systems in Pittsburgh and build a system that would make travel time between Pittsburgh and Harrisburg, Pa. 245 miles -around 80 minutes. Another consortium wants to build a line between Baltimore and W&shington; Sen. Barbara Mikulski. Maryland Democrat, wants the cities linked with a maglev test route. The congressional Office of Teel> .nplos Assessment,llld ID a report issu last week that maglev is one of two leading methods for improv ing "passenger mobility in crowded intercity travel corridors less than 500 miles long." OTA identified tilt-rotors, or com bination helicopter-airplanes, as the other quick travel method. Although both would be very ex pensive to start, the maglev technol ogy has one competitive advantage over tilt-rotor, says OTA: Airlines have a vested interest in the shorthaul routes that tilt-rotor craft would be serving. Some airlines have already ex pressed interest in cooperating with maglev as a way to relieve airport Stt RAILS, page CIO congestion by oft'ering high-spee, links from crowded cities to outly ing, less congested airports. But, notes OTA. the United State: has a five-year lead in tilt-rotor tech nology, but lags far behind the Ger mans in maglev development. Money for maglev remains a problem. Federal Railroad Administrator Gilbert Carmichael says he thinks private money and non-federal fund ing will be crucial to high-speed rall, maglev or not. "This is the era of the empowerment of the state departments of transportation," he says. Peter Rogoff', counsel to the Senate Appropriations subcommittee that sets spending levels for transportation, says, "It's likely that the first high-speed-rail project to go will be with public-private dollars," possibly Japanese or German. In fact, the project that's closest to becoming a reality, a line from Orlando's airport to the entrance to Disney World ( 13.S miles), is backed by German manufacturers and a JapaJJese consortfum that includes banki-and insurance companies. Some onCagilQ}.Hill are less optimistic. "Many of us are sympathetic but ambivalent; says Geni L Hall, who works for the Republican side of the Senate Commerce Committee. "Many are still concerned with how to pay for what we already have," such as Amtrak, before more money is spent, she says. But Joseph Vranich, who heads the Washington oft'ice of the High Speed Rail Association, is not cowed. "Sure, some folks on the Hill are a little down because they see how hard it is to get money for federal projects, but we are farther along than we have ever been;' he says. "We have bills, a tidal wave, all over the Hill, and the Senate bill that passed without objection is farther than we have ever been. High-speed trains are coming." .. I, V p I

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-UM.L STREET JOURtW. (EASTERN EDITION) WMHINBTON, DC DAD.V 797,779 TUESDAY OCT 151991 37 Bug~ .u.oo .a .... 1 Labor Letter A Special News Report on People And Tl.eir Jobt in Offices, Field. an~ f.rtmr L.3 YI v t '~ SLEEPLESS NIGHTS: Worklnc o than standard daytime hours takes a toll. "I don't feel quite as aggressive and rested and at ease as I did working the day," says Jace Carrington, a 55-year-old shift supervisor for Texas Instruments. Another supervisor, 33-year-old Cleon Smith, says working odd hours made him "dysfunctional as a parent," and he lost weight because he missed "the big, right meals." Panduit Corp. supervisor Owen Beeken says marital problems are prevalent among night-shift workers. One in five Americans-20 million peo ple-now work nonstandard hours. The con gressional Office of TechnoJogy Assessment says scientists have confirmed that such work schedules disrupt biological rhythms. But because little research has been done to apply such research to the workplace, workers generally are on their own to find ways of coping. Stein Printing Co. graphic artist Steve Turner, who uses short naps and six cups of coffee to get through the night shift, can't fall asleep in the morning without a cup of coffee first.

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M0-277 OCT 28 1991 8U(!8EUl'S ;. ,, '/ Congress Studies Modern Concerns By Robert Sanford Of Ille Post-Dispatch Staff (;;} 'f 7 'f Does the fact that the secretary of state spends hours in airplanes leap frogging time zones subject him to continuing queasy feelings of jet lag? Does it affect his ability to reason? What is the effect of long hours of overnight work on resident physicians in hospitals? Does it slow down their thinking? What are the effects of night work on airline pilots? On shift workers? These questions come under the category of biological rhythms, a topic explored recently by an arm of Congress, the omce of Technology Air sessment. It also has been exploring disarmament. greenhouse gases, adolescent health, automated stock market trading, sr .e junk and technology to combat tt>rrorism, among other subjects. John H. Gibbons, director of the OTA, said biological rhythm concerns are products of modernity. He was a speaker Monday at Washington University, delivering the third annual Elvera and William Stuckenberg Lecture at the School of Engineering and ~pplied Science. "An old country maxim was to work during daylight and sleep at night." he said. "That won't get the job done anymore. As business becomes more competitive, more and more people are working odd hours. Congresmonal committees asked OTA to put together the facts." From the old practice of planning the size of counties so that a person could ride a horse to the county seat and back in a day, we have graduated to problems that have been national, international and, now, planetary, he said. Congress has interests at ail levels. Global problems such as concern about holes in the ozone layer and the warming effect of greenhouse gases could have a centrifugal force, demanding that attention be spread over large areas, Gibbons said. But. at the same time, there is a centripetal force demanding attention at the center where there appears to be a le& of confidence in centralized government. Gibbons is a physicist who has been director of the OTA since 1979. The office was established by Congress in the early 1970s to advise Congress on technical matters. Topics of study are suggested by congressional committees and subcommittees, of which there are about 75. Experts at OT A have been able to testify on some topics in as short a time as two days, but usually take two months or up to two years to write reports and books, he said. The average citizen doesn't have time to study complex mues, he said, being swept up in the task of surviving from day to day. The task is made harder, he said, because average income has been falling for more than a decade, which is another problem. ..

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.. IV\).,,//ll I HECHANICAL ENGINEERING NEW YCRY., NY i'IOtlTHL V 120 JOO OCTOBER 1991 -uas BuM~ t.a .. o-lil!iiiiiiii\!i~eg. NR ,, .. rjllllllll---------------------------------~ WASHINGTON WINDOW The Future of Defense Spending (o-;)~ A the Soviet Union crumbles and a noncommu oist Eastern Europe emerges, the United States JS having to rethink its defense policies. Events uch as Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and the abortive coup in Moscow suggest to policymakers that any military reduction must be carefully planned, but the U.S. military of the next century will be quite different from that of the Cold War years. Lacking competition from a vigorous Soviet military program, the American defense infrastructure will be smaller and will acquire new weapons systems at a slower pace. This will mean signifi cant change for U.S. industry and for engineers em ployed in defense-re lated activities. To advise Congress on policies needed to ensure a healthy defense industrial base under these conditions, the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) prepared a report, "Designing Defense: Planning the Transition to the Future U.S. Defense Industrial Base," released in August. The report notes that overall defense spending is likely to continue to decline as a proportion of gross national product over the next five years, with substantial decreases in the procurement of large weapons systems. These changes will have a major impact on the de fense industry and the employment of engineers. More of the defense business will be for maintenance of and retrofits to existing weapons systems rather than produc tion. Fewer companies will remain in the industrial base, either as prime contractors or as subcontractors and suppliers. PreNl'Vlng R&D Defense research and development will also be strong ly affected. The OT A report notes that "direct funding for defense research and development is expected to fall 23 percent" between now and 1996, and (since so much defense research and development is directly linked to weapons systems acquisition) private-sector defense R&D funding will continue to drop as well. Despite this expected decrease, the OT A report said that the preservation and advancement of defense re search and development capability are "the highest pri ority [for maintaining the defense technology industrial base) over the next decade ... This will require that pro portionately more defense funds go to R&D and that R&D funding be less dependent on weapons production programs. Under such a research strategy,'' the focus of R&D activity will change from develop_ing systems for totypes, and engineering for potential production. "The challenge ... will be to maintain an R&D capabili ty that hedges against technological surprise while con centrating on evolutionary developments," the OTA re port says. Only those designs providing a significant operational advantage will be carried through to manufacture. A capability for continuous design and prototyping will be central to the defense base, but this will be difficult to maintain when fewer new weapons systems are being produced. In addition, reduced procurement levels will limit resources for de sign and prototype development. Among the tech nologies that the OT A report says can be considered "core competencies" for the defense technology industrial base are electronics, propulsion, advanced materials, and computer software. Such areas should receive adequate R&D support from the federal government to remain strong. If cuts are needed in defense R&D spending, they should be made in specific research programs rather than across the board, the OT A report says. Across-the board cuts can reduce efforts below the minimum needed for serious accomplishments. In some cases, civilian R&D efforts can provide needed improvement in perfor mance, and Department of Defense-funded programs could be abandoned. In defense electronics, for example, projects aimed at increasing the speed and reducing the size of microchips could be left to the civilian sector, with the defense sector concentrating on hardening circuits against radiation or developing circuitry for elec tronic warfare. Looking at the Near Tenn For a number of years, ASME has provided input to Congress through its federal government relations pro gram on the annual budget prop_osals for the Department of Energy, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Beginning this spring, the Society's In tercouncil Committee on Federal R&D plans to address the concerns of mechanical engineers in the federal funding of defense R&D as well. As a beginning to that effort. ihe Committee is spon soring a session on December 3 at the 1991 Winter An nual Meeting, "Engineering Research in the Department of Defense ... Speakers will include senior Defense De partment officials who oversee engineering research programs.

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DEFENSE Ot\ILY IMSllIN8tOM, OC OAILY FRIDA'I HOU 11991 ; I I ,. I t J -. 4121 BVRNUE'S MW tlCAI Q Wt/ I U.S. WEAPONS DEVELOPMENT TO BE DRIVEN BY ALLIES--OTA f.t;;.J..'1' 1 i The quality of future U.S. weapons may be driven by the performance of the systems built by the country's allies, or at least those weapons they are willing to sell abroad, according to a background paper prepared for Congress by the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment (OTA). The study, "American Military Power," argues that the international arms market may change the benchmark by which the U.S. measures the performance of its weapons systems. Previously, U.S. weapons were judged against those of the Soviet Union. But "improvement in weapon performance may be harder to achieve because the total number ofeach type of weapon will probably be smaller, and smaller production runs do not justify as large investment in development (and, in the long run, research)," OTA says in the study which was released yesterday. OT A also predicts that large gaps in procurement cycles will increase the problem of holding design teams together. The weapons of the U.S., its allies and the Soviet Union continue to outclass by far those of any other producer. In addition, "foreign markets may help support the U.S. defense industrial base, but selling weapons to nations that may later use them to fight against the seller is clearly counterproductive in the long term." The solution, a sellers' cartel, may prove difficult to arrange, OT A says. "In any case, a very careful cost/benefit analysis must precede any decision to support the U.S. defense industrial base by encouraging arms exports." The report concludes that the choices the U.S. makes about its future force requirements will have implications for defense technology and the industrial base. For example, if the U.S. chooses to reduce military personnel drastically, high-performance weapons may be needed to maintain military capability. But depending on smaller numbers of high-performance weapons exacerbates the problems and costs caused by very limited production runs, the report says. [OTA-BP-ISC-80] * ,.r .. t

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Anew study suggests Congress review arms cooperation with Europe, to prevent another Iraq. Meanwhile, the House wants to do away with export licensing (see page 2) Vol. S,),/3 Nov 4, 1991 Middle East Defense News MEDNEWS is mailed bi-weekly to se lect subscribers at the rate of S600 for 24 consecutive issues. Payment by check to MEDNEWS, 10, rue de l'Unlon, 78600 Malsons-Laffltte, France. Tel: (331) 39 62 68 30. Fax: (331) 39 62 59 05. Copyright If> 1991, Mednews. Unauthorized reproduction forbidden U.S.-European Rift Widens, New Study Shows A recent study by the U.S. Congress into the global arms trade calls for a sweeping review ofU .S. arms export policy and of the controls exercised by Congress. The study, perfonned by the Office of Tech nology Assessment (OT A), also warns that the long standing positive climate of U.S.-European defense cooperation could be over, and that Congress could seek to .. consider restricting future defense industrial collaboration with Europe" if satisfactory guidelines covering defense transfers are not negotiated and upheld by European anns exporting nations. Until recently, the United States favored technology transfers to West Europebecause that they benefitted mutual security in the face of a massive Soviet threat. But with the end of the Cold War, other considerations have become more impor tant. The most dramatic exrunple of these is the growth of potential security threats in the Third World. The arming of Iraq by France is cited repeat edly by the OTA as a warning of things to come. .. Countries with whom the United States has collaborated extensively in the past may in fact transfer weapons and technology to nations that oppose U.S. security and economic interests ... Al though they were not used effectively in the Persian -{::=:\\:}\f\/ .. ::.:::::/:-\::::::::::::=::::/_.;.;:: --/ .. =::::::;::.::::-:: =::111:::i:1i1:111,:1:1~1;m.~ni:::~n~:::if::,ef:gri1:1::f ::~i~st:::\r 1:1111riJ.!Il~!&li~t~11:1:11M:::~:i;;i;1 :1i:;;(;:1:::::1:::: ie:J~!~I9:t!n~I!9t:~~t~!::::t-::=::Jrdi~-:: -_. li;f JHt~ti!*ii~!rs>i' Gulf War. some of the most sophisticated weapons in the Iraqi arsenal were made in France. It is not impossible that U.S. soldiers will agaia face Euro pean weapons on the battlefield, weapons that may even incorporate innovations first developed in the United States. If the European nations and the United States are unable or unwilling to harmonize their defense export policies, then Congress may wish to consider restricting future defense industrial col laboration with Europe," the study says. Technology transfer: The proliferation of anns manufacturing technology and design exper tise should be controlled just as carefully as the sale of finished weapons systems. the study argues. since many major arms sales today are detennined by which competitor is willing to sell the best manufac turing technology at the lowest price. "The United States and other major exporters are gradually losing control of the weapons trans ferred as well as the technology and industry neces sary to produce and support them," the study says. "There can be no assurance that the weapons we and our allies make available to our friends today will not be used against us tomorrow." Thanks to Western technology. many devel oping nations have already become significant anns exporters, making it even more difficult to control the flow of advanced weapons systems. In addition to Brazil, South Africa and Israel, which have been exporting vigorously throughout the 1980s, Pacific rim countries such as South Korea. Taiwan, and Indonesia are joining the export ranks. India is also expected to become a significant arms exporter in the coming years.

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Nov. 4, 1991 Page 2 10, rue de l'Union 78600 Maisons-Laffitte France. Tel: (331) 39 62 68 30. Fax: (331) 39 62 59 05. Economic outlook: With world defense spending on the decline since 1987, and a with global overcapacity in defense manufacturing, competition will intensify in coming years. European companies would appear to be more flexible to adapt to the changing marlcets of the future, the OT A argues, since they depend far less on defense sales than do their U.S. counterparts. A survey of the top twelve arms manufactur ers in the U.S. and Europe showed that European companies depended on arms sales for an average 17% of yearly turnover, as compared to 40% for the American finns, and should therefore suffer less from a downturn in defense spending. Furthermore, many of the top U.S. companies McDonnell Douglas, Lockheed, General Dynamics, Martin Marietta depend on defense sales for more than 70% of their total turnover. This compares to British Aerospace (40% of corporate sales were defense related), Aerospatiale (44%), and Thomson-CSP (65%). For large diversi fied groups like Daimler-Benz or Fiat, the percent age of defense-dependence is minimal. Conversely, the most diversified of the prime weapons contracts in the U.S. United Technologies relied on govern ment work for $5.5 billion out of S 19 billion in sales in 1989 (29%). U.S. exports: The defense downturn at home has put increasing pressure on U.S. defense contrac tors to step up their international sales. In this, they would appear to have gained support from the Re agan and Bush Administrations, which in the late 1980s began to emphasize the purely commercial aspects of arms transfers, shifting away from the long-term belief that arms sales should be used solely as an instrument of foreign policy. The study argues that the U.S. has recently adopted a European approach to arms exports, sell ing front-line weapons systems to the highest bidder, instead of using arms sales as a means of bolstering U.S. friends abroad. Purely commercial arms sales may be neces sary in order to maintain production lines for systems suchastheM-1 Abrams tank,ortheF-15 fighter.and U.S. defense contractors are arguing that political resb'ictions should be dropped from potential sales to the Middle East. However, OTA concludes that a .. policy and indusb'ial structure that depends on foreign sales to make the manufacture of defense systems profitable (or even possible) would create strong pressures on DoD and the State Department to approve foreign sales that could not stand on their own merits." U.S.-European competition: Despite the downwmd economic trends, the U.S.isexpectedtomaintainitscurrentathree-tO-One edge over Europe in defense R&D spending. In 1988, for instance, the U.S. government spent $38 billion on defense research, development, and testing, while the comparable figure for Western Europe stood at $8.4 billion. "This suggests the difficulty that European firms face in remaining competitive across-the-board in military technology. and the need for a "niche" strategy as they seek new marlcet oppor tunities," the study says. With the Single European Act of 1992, Europe's defense industry should stand "'poised to in crease their share of civilian markets" and to benefit from the economies of scale resulting from the cur rent spate of mergers and acquisitions. "Further, since European governments united or separately do not appear ready to allow U.S. defense firms to compete on an equal footing for procurement con tracts, European companies can continue to enjoy protectionist walls. Indeed, they can benefit from protection not only through greater profits, but by de manding collaborative, technology-sharing agree ments with American firms that seek market access; in short, the Europeans are taking a free ride on U.S. military R&D expenditures." While European manufacturers will certainly dispute these findings, they are indicative of mount ing pressures on the U.S. Congress to focus more critically on what used to be known as the "Two Way Street" in defense cooperation. Congress will want to make sure that U.S. defense dollars are wisely spent in the future to defend U.S. interests. And these interests are sure to be more narrowly defined in the future, especially if the 1992 elections retwn a Democrat to the White House. Global Arms Trade: Commerce in Advanced Military Technology and Weapons. Congress of the United States, Office of Technology Assessment, Washington, DC. 1991. 192 pp, $9.00. House wants an end to Export Licensing system Legislation which comes before the House this week would gut what remains of the export licensing system, freeing fiber optics and advanced telecommunications equipment for export to the USSR ( or what is left of it). and dropping all licensing requirements within COCOM. The Omnibus Export Amendments Act of 1991, sponsored by Represen tative Sam Gejdensen (D, Conn), is a hodge-podge of measures which experts in Washington believe would be distratrous. By allowing license-free re export of U.S. goods from countries such as Sweden, Switzerland and Austria, the new bill would guaran tee that U.S. supercomputers, advanced machine tools, and electronics wind up in countries like Libya or Iran, effectively obviating what little leverage American diplomats currently enjoy in limiting Third World ballistic missile, CW, and nuclear weapons programs. President Bush has promised to veto the bill if it becomes law.

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R&D Can Make Public Works Work Better 0 2-q -,., .. Bridges, roads, trains, sewers, water systems-the critical infrastructure-"are wearing out faster than we can repair or replace them," says the Office of Technology Assessment. Yet the national laboratories-:-Universities and industry research departments have developed "countless new technologies" that could help, OT A says in a recent report to Congress, Delivering the Goods: Public Works Technologies, Management, and Finance. OTA identifies these technologies as nondestructive evaluation equipment, information and decision systems, communications and positioning systems ( for traffic management, for example), field construction technologies, and new materials that protect against corrosion and other damage. These technologies could be helpful, "with some adaptation," OTA says. But it cautions that they are often expensive and require trained people to use properly. Moreover, new technologies "inevitably bring new and unforeseen difficulties with them." OTA's report points out that few government grant programs for public works provide money for purchasing hardware or technology. And changes in any technology "must be accompanied by the appropriate policy change, or the benefits may not be realized." OTA calls upon "every level of government" to pay more attention to education and training. It notes that most university civil engineering departments-where many public works managers are trained--do not teach about nondestructive testing or maintenance management, "which will C I RESEARCH TECHHOLOGY KAHAGEKEMT WASffINGTON. DC BI-KOMTHLV 4,300 HOV-DEC 1991 -saoo Jl!t.@Li.'S. MW 1.KII Q 1.n -c. eventu.ill) lk basic tools for public works departments." It suggests that Federal support of university engineering programs could require courses in these technologies. "Inadequate" is how the OTA characterizes the Federal investment in R&D for addressing the condition and capacity problems which face public works providers. It calls for "substantial additional Federal resources for R&D," with a focus "on both immediate problems and long-term alternatives." OTA suggests that Congress require a percentage of Federal grant monies be allocated to R&D, particularly into technologies for maintenance. And OT A would like the Department of Transportation and the Environmental Protection Agency to develop better systems for collecting data and doing research on public works programs, "especially on the impacts of transportation on the environment." Delivering the Goods is S 12 from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402. Request Stock. No. 052-003-01229-4.

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J -~ ... -SI LOUIS POST-DISPATCH St LOUIS, MO. 0. 382,381 NOV 28 1991 B1f-Dl'3 L .... ,.;.. .............. _, ... :, .Study Backs Incineration Of Dioxin 1 ; By Bob Adams \o?.Lt J chemicals Into the air. able technology that U.S. regulatory agencies Post-Dispatch Washington Bureau Chief Gephardt, however, said be was encourdeem acceptable for treatment of dioxin WASHINGTON Incineration remains aged by the reiteration that other possible contaminated materials," the report said. :the only proven way of eliminating large methods existed. "This Independent study "Other technologies are promising, but amounts of dioxin although other. possible confirms my belief that some destruction none bas been sufficiently developed or tedlnologies ~xlst, a new study said alternatives are very promising and worth shown In tests to be adequate for routine, Wednesday. further attention," Gephardt said In a statecurrent cleanup work." The study, by the Congressional Office gf ment. "I will work to ensure that they get It." The report said that "a more aggressive Technolofo ftQlent, was done at me reJim Hawley, a legislative ~lstant to Gep-government program to develop and prove : quest of ouseaJorlty Leader Richard A. hardt, said there bad been no decision by alternative dioxin treatment technologies Gephardt, D-St. Louis County. Gephardt Gephardt's office as to which alternatives to would ~1st In evaluating their real poten ; asked for the study because some residents pursue or how much they might cost. Hawley tlal." But It said that at present, the develop ; of southeastern Missouri objected to a curpointed to the section dealing with a process ment of such alternatives "Is moving very rent plan to bum the dioxin-contaminated called dechlorlnlzatlon, In which the oxygen slowly, and any new solutions to treating i soil at Times Beach and other sites. atoms are taken out of the dioxin, rendering dioxin contamination appear to be a long way i Tfie conclusion appeared certain to dlsapthe chemical harmless. off." I point those who sought an alternative means The report Indicated that private Industry The new report essentially confirmed what : of cleaning up the 92,000 cubic yards of was unlikely to develop the alternative techexperts had said previously: that alternative : contaminated soil at Times Beach and 26 nologies. Hence, It said, more federal money methods had worked In laboratories on small ; other sites In Missouri. Some had expressed would be needed. amounts of dioxin, but that more research J ~oncetn that Incineration might release toxic "At present, Incineration Is the only avail-was needed. \ r

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! r-1, 1l-ndu'l/.lD"l Fort Worth Star-Telegram FORT WORTH, TEX7\S SUN. 334,270 TX-220 -Employers colltemplate gellet1C'testing About 42 percent of personnel officen surveyed say employment could hang on the ability to get health jnsur-1Dce. \f+tl\ 1 BY DEBORAH MF.SCE The Aaociated Prea WASHINGTON Few compa nies are screening employees or ap plicants for genetic susceptibilities, but rising health insurance costs for workers and their families could change that, said a congressional re port released yesterday. A large majority of employers consider genetic testing not to be cost-effective, according to a survey by the Office of Technology~ ment, a research arm oi Congress. about half the employers sur veyed believe that it's acceptable to use genetic screening or monitoring in the workplace, the survey found. Genetic testing involves exami nation of the basic biological fabric of a person to detect specific traits and susceptibility to various dis eases. Such information about a per son's genetic makeup could reveal otherwise unidentifiable health risks and has raised many privacy questions. The tests cost between $200 and S 1,000 or so, far more than the typi cal blood pressure test or chest X ray. But health risks are becoming more important to employers as the cost ofhealth insurance continues to spiral, the report said. More than a third of the compa nies surveyed reported that they assess the health insurance risk of job applicants routinely or sometimes, and 9 percent said they assess the health risks of dependents of job applicants. Also, 42 percent of personnel offi cers surveyed said there is some chance that the health insurance risks of a job applicant would reduce the likelihood that the applicant would be hired. "The growing concern among em ployers over the rising costs of em ployee health insurance, and the in creased efforts to reduce those costs to the employer could increase the scope of health insurance screening in the workplace," the report said. The report is based on a 1989 survey of 1,500 of the nation's larg est companies, 800 of which re sponded, including 330 of the For tune 500 companies. The Office of Technology Assessment conducted a similar survey in 1982 on a smaller sample. 1 In the 1989 survey, 12 Fortune : 500 companies reported current use of genetic monitoring or screening 'and eight others said they had con ducted these tests at some time since "The growing concern among employers over ; the rising costs of : employee health insurance, and the increased efforts to reduce those costs to the employer could increase the scope of health insurance screening in the workplace." Office of Technology A~ment 1970. In the 1982 survey, six compa nies reported current use and 12 companies indicated past use. "At this stage, it's clear compa nies do not find genetic tests to be cost-effective," said Margaret Anderson, an Office ofTechnology As sessment analyst who directed the project. "Perhaps, as these tests get more cost-effective over the next decade or two, companies may view them differently, and if you pair that with their concern over health insurance risk, it could become more likely." Genetic screening is a one-time test to determine whether someone carries specific traits. Genetic moni toring involves multiple tests over time to determine whether work place exposures are changing em ployees' genetic material. Genetic tests are available to de tect sickle cell anemia, cystic fibro sis, Huntington's disease, hemophi lia, Duchenne muscular dystrophy and other diseases. Future tests could screen for such things as hy pertension, dyslel\ia, Alzheimer's disease and cancer. The survey found that nearly 60 percent of large employers require all or most job applicants to undergo health exams before they are hired. The survey was conducted before the Americans with Disabilities Act was passed. Beginning in July 1992, employers cannot require pre-em ployment medical examinations un less they are job-related. ---~ --....... ---.,.._ ...... -,-----. ---

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-Halter Unveils Advanced Vessel Des~' for OU Spill Response A W~J "tlssel called the Halter Combo-60 offers an effective system for stopping the spread of spilled oil and recovering it quickly, efficiently, and cost-effectively, according to its maker, Halter International, New Orleans. Halter, a subsidiary of Trinity Indus tries, cited the 1990 congressional Office o.f.T~chnology Assessment (OTA) re:" port .. Coping with an Oiled Sea: An Analysis of Oil Spill Response Tech nologies," as its motivation for build ing the vessel. The report concluded that all exist ing technologies-including skimmers chemical dispersants, burning, and bio2 remediation-were of limited effectiveness, recovering at most 15 percent of a major spill unless conditions were perfect. OT A researchers also stressed the crit(cal nature of getting the right ~~u1~ment to an accident rapidly, while 1t s still manageable, and having opera tors who are specially trained to han dle spills. Halter says its new system meets all those challenges. The centerpiece of the system is the Halter Combo-60, a vessel whose design far exceeds the limits of all existing oil recovery technology, according to the company. Its design is so innovative the com pany has applied for a patent on the entire vessel, from bow to stern, the first such patent since the turn of the century. Halter offers in-depth operator trainSEA TECHHOLOGV ARLINGTON_. 1.,1~ MONTHLY 22,SOO OCTOBER 1991 .. \/ ing with the vessel, done by a subsi diary, RREDI Corp., and a computer based rapid deployment system to speed a fleet of Halter Combo-60s to an accident site. The vessel has a top cruising speed of25 knots. It provides unlimited stor age by pumping recovered oil into floating polyurethane-coated nylon bladders that can be replaced with an empty one. The Combo-60 can handle every thing from light spills to heavy slicks by using four types of pumps. The same jet pumps that speed the vessel to its destination can pump oil at 32,000 barrels per hour. The boat also offers Halter Sea Sled, an oil-gathering device that floats in front of its bow. In tests, the boat has shown it can fight fires, patch damaged vessels, back wash oil and debris off shorelines, supply water to land-based fire engines, drain flooded areas, and dredge shal low bottoms. It's fast enough to serve as a patrol, crew, or supply boat and small enough to be a lifeboat. 1s11

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ELECTRONIC LEARNING NEW YORK, NY 8-TIHES/YEAR 43,480 ,, SEPTEHBER 1991 -6016 Bu_'W{UE'S HH c.e .. a u .... L :},~// H""'~---------------------~---------------------, Educators of the Decade: 10Who Made A Difference The magazine you are holding is Electronic Learning's 10th anniversary issue. EL first appeared in Sept. 1981. In celebration of this anniversary, earlier in the year we asked readers to nominate educators or industry people who in the last decade significantly advanced educational technology. Reader nominations were judged by a distinguished panel of national judges: Gordon Ambach, l executive director of the Council of Chief State School Officers, Mary Futrell, senior fellow at George Washington University and past president of the National Education Association, and Alan November, technology 1 consultant for the Glenbrook High Schools, Glenview, Ill. Awards were presented at the National Educational Computing Conference in Phoenix, Ariz., on June 18, 1991. Lindi Roberts, Senior Asaoclate, U.S. C....., Office of TecllnoloO A11111ment (OTA), walllington, D.C. The 1988 release of the OTA report, Power On! New and technology consultant Roberts' equally success Tools for Teaching and Leaming, was a pivotal event In ful study on telecommunications, linking for education. Up until its publication, there had been no Leaming: A New Cmme for Education, led OTA dlrec comprehensive study on the state of educational tor John Gibbons to say of both her reports: "They technology in America, and its descriptions of innovahave greatly improved the knowledge base and the tive programs offered new hope to technology-using understanding that will enable the country to opti educators. Giving the report its voice and vision was mize technology in our educational system." Roberts Llnda Roberts, who brought to the OTA a rich back-believes that "the quality of education Is now a ground as a teacher, university professor, researcher, national issue. We have an opportunity to be bold." --


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