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- Permanent Link:
- http://ufdc.ufl.edu/AA00055597/00025
Material Information
- Title:
- Quarterly Report to the Technology Assessment Board, October 1 - December 31, 1980
- Series Title:
- Quarterly Report Office of Technology Assessment
- Creator:
- Office of Technology Assessment
- Publisher:
- Office of Technology Assessment
- Publication Date:
- 1981
- Language:
- English
- Physical Description:
- 149 pages.
Subjects
- Subjects / Keywords:
- Technology assessment ( LIV )
Budgets ( LIV )
- Genre:
- federal government publication ( marcgt )
- Spatial Coverage:
- Washington, D.C.
Notes
- General Note:
- This is a quarterly report detailing the budget and progress of the Office of Technology Assessment.
Record Information
- Source Institution:
- University of North Texas
- Holding Location:
- University of North Texas
- Rights Management:
- This item is a work of the U.S. federal government and not subject to copyright pursuant to 17 U.S.C. §105.
Aggregation Information
- IUF:
- University of Florida
- OTA:
- Office of Technology Assessment
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PAGE 1
Quarterly Re ort to th ech n logy Assessment oard ARCHIVES COPY DO NOT REMOVE FROM LIBRARY October 1 -December 31, '1980
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TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Assessments in Progress ...................................... 1 II. Financial and Personnel Highlights ....... 4 III. Services to the Congress . . . . . . . . . 4 IV. A. Assessments and Reports Published l. Title . . . . . . ............. 2. Requests for OTA Publications ............. 3. Private Sector Reprinting ...... 4. Sales of OTA Publications ...... ..... 5. Other Activities . . . . ..... B. Communications with Congress Testimony ............................................... Director's Congressional Appointments 1. 2. 3. 4. Responses to Congressional Inquiries Briefings, Presentations, Workshops for Congressional Staff ................................... ....... 5. Subjects of Interaction and Coordination with other Congressional Support Agencies ..... External Activities A. Director B. Staff 1. Presentations ... 2. External Publications 3. Other Activities .. C. Notable Press-Requested Interviews D. Brown Bag Seminar Series .. OFflCE Of iEC,'-~:
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Casi code and assessmenl Energy, Materials, and International Security Division 114 Assessments in Progress, January 1981 (dollar estimates in thousands) Esllmalod TAB delivery 1961 JAN I FEB I MARI APA I MAY I JUN I JUL I AUG' SEP I OCT I NOV I DEC $25oL $259 1982 JAN I FEB I MAR I APA r Solar Power Satellite Systems (1/81)" ...... 120 Alternative Energy Futures ( 10/81) ......... ( $1,000 6 i, ,01v.c::?" $310 L\ $345 120.1 Cities.:.: ...................... r $414 !:::i $380 120.2 Industry .. : .. -. ................. 120.3 Policy._.,._.~--.. ................ $216 6 $200 125 Synthetic Fuels for Transportation (6/81) ... $622 /\ $704 126 Dispersed Electrlc Energy Generation $288 6 $329 Systems(2/81) ....................... $120L\ $63 128 Nuclear Powerplant Standardization (12/80). 413 Development and Production Potential of $800 $918 Federal Coal Leases (1/81) ............. 415 Nonnuclear Industrial Hazardous Waste (6/82) ......................... 708.2 Competitiveness of U.S. Electronics $345 fi $365 Industry (12/80) ....................... 708.3 U.S. Industrial Competitiveness: A Com petri son of Steel, Electronics, and $99 6 $127 Automobiles (1/81) .................... 709 Technology and Soviet Energy $340 6 $321 Availability (5/81) ..................... 710 MX Missile Basing (5/81) ................. $490 6 $565 Dcurrent projection for delivery to TAB. Projected total cost figures on left of triangle are latest TA~:~pproved; on right are latest projection by OT A management. NOTE: Dates in parentheses following assessment title are current projected completion dates as of fourth quarter FY 80 report to TAB or subsequent TAB notifications. aAdditional months to complete the assessment are required as explained below: 708.2: 8 mos.-scheduled slippages primadly due to postponements created by rescheduled hearings by requesting committee and required reallocation of staff time to 708.3 $900 $834 Percent Obllgallons variance lhru of projoclod Dec.31, 1980 cosl +4 ~-40-~' -7 $286 -8 $105 -7 $50 + 13 $536 + 14 $291 -48 $50 +15 $812 -$190 +6 $319 +12 $120 -----4 $231 + 15 $308 ....
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Assessments in Progress, January 1981 (dollar estimates in thousands) Esllmalod TAB delivery 1081 Co:.I collu ,111ll m1:1ou:;111onl JAN I FEB 'MAR I APR I MAYI JUN I JUL 'AUG I SEP I OCT I NOV I DEC Heulth and Lite Sciences Division $350 Li $380 227 U.S. Food and Agricultural Research (3/81). 350 Impact of Technology on Productivity of the $250 6 $260 Land (2/81) ........................... 307 Technologies for Determining Cancer Risks $199 6 $223 From the Environment (1/81) ............ 312 Evaluation of VA Agent Orange Protocol (indelinile)" .................. 313 Strategies tor Medical Technology $325 6 Assessments (9/81) ... : ............... 318 Medical Technology and the $350~ Handicappod (12/81) .................. u~1 l111pacts or Appllud Gonullcti ( 1/11 I) ........ /\ $5113 $!i02 u:32 Tttchnology and World Population (4/81) .... $489 /\ ~546 D Current projection for delivery to TAB. Projected total cost figures on left of triangle are latest TAB-approved; on right are latest projection by OT A management. NOTE: Dates in parentheses following assessment title are current projected completion dates as of fourth quarter FY 80 report to TAB or subsequent TAB notifications. Addllional months to complele lhe assessment are required as explained below: 227: 3 mos.-to allow addilional time for exlernal review of commissioned papers and final report. 350: 5 rnos.-start ol project was delayed until project dlreclor could be recruited; also, extensive review of commissioned papers was necessary lo assure high quality. brhe completion date of this assessment Is enllrely dependent on VA contractor protocol proposal receipt and acceplance. Porconl Obllgallons 1982 va1la11cu lhru JAN I FEB I MARI APA ol projuclod Dec. 31, 1980 co:il +9 $308 +4 $213 +12 $210 $28 $17 -18 $11 -$149 $49 +2 $5~i3 + 12 $449
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Cos I cocto and assessment Science, Information, and Transportation Division i'5ll 650 813 814 815 816 817 520 521 530 531 6 6 10 18 Tt:chnological Innovation and Regulations (2/81) ................... Space Polley and Applications (6/81) ....... National Information Systems (4/81) ....... Telecommunicallons Technology (12/80) ... Impacts of tho 1979 World l\t1ministralive Radio Conference (6/0 I) ............... Patent System and Its Impact on New Technological Enterpris0s (3/82) .... Information Technology and Education (3/82) ...................... Higll-Level Radioactive Waste Management and Disposal (3/81) .................... Impacts of lnadvertant Atmosphere Alterations (3/82) ..................... Freshwater Resources Management (1/81) .. Ocean Research Technology (11/80) ....... Advanced Air Transport Technology (12/80). Air Traffic Control and Airport Sys1ems (5/81) ....................... Assessments in Progress, January 1981 (dollar estimates in thousands) Esllmatod TAB dollvory 1981 JAN I FEB IMAA I APA I MAY! JUN I JUL I AUG I SEPI OCTI NOVI DEC $526/\ $560 $690 L\ $499 $801 6 $811 $3618.,. $359 $300 6 $282 $970 6$1,087 $149 6 $155 $4026 $394 $613D $592 $378 6 $361 Di. Current projection for delivery to TAB. Projected cost figures on left of triangle are latest TAB-approved; on right are latest projection by OT A management. NOTE: Dates in parentheses following assessment title are current projected completion dates as of fourth quarter FY 80 report to TAB or subsequent TAB notifications. 3Additional months to complete the assessment are required as explained below: 520: 3 mos.-unanticipaled delay due to extensive comments from advisory panel members following review of draft report which has necessitated considerable rewrite. Porcont Hlfl2 varlanco Obligations JAN I FEB I MAR I APA ol projaclod lhru cosl Dec. 31, 1980 +6 $500 -28 $159 +1 $749 1 $339 -6 $175 $295 6$218 -26 $23 ..--$271 6$246 -9 $16 +12 $995 $615 6$507 -18 $30 +4 $131 -2 $371 I -3 $575 .. -4 $189 ------------
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-4-II. FINANCIAL AND PERSONNEL HIGHLIGHTS A. We have obligated approximately $2.8M in the fiscal year to date. The Second budget resolution authorized funds only to June 5. This limits our flexibility in using all of the funds remaining in our annual budget. The total amount authorized for OTA from October l to June 5 is $7,326,000, whereas the total funds available for the year would amount to $10,780,000. B. There is uncertainty regarding our supplemental-requests. The pay supplemental request amounts to $370,000. If we have to absorb this amount, it represents a reduction of approximately 7-1/2% in the funds available for salary and benefits. We have also requested a program supplemental of $370,000 for fiscal year 1981. Failure to obtain this amount has the following effects on OTA: (1) $150,000 is scheduled toaccommodatethe expense of shifting away from GAO financial and personnel support. Serious morale problems have developed at OTA because of the inability of GAO to provide timely support. (2) The remainder of the program supplemental, $220,000, is necessary for OTA to restore important scope to some already approved projects. Unavoidable slippage of work in fiscal year 1980 caused the transfer of costs amounting to about $300,000 from fiscal year 1980 into fiscal year 1981. C. We have considerably improved our management and control of funds during the present fiscal year. We have a financial management information system in place that is giving up ample warning of any potential trouble spots in our internal operating budget. D. An audit of our accounts has almost been completed by an outside firm. We are awaiting documentation from GAO in order to reconcile our current year accounts. To date the results and comments by the auditors on OTA's financial management have been favorable. III. SERVICES TO THE CONGRESS A. Assessments and Reports Published 1. Title o World Petroleum Availability 1980-2000: A Technical Memorandum o Implications of Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Medical Technology: Background Papers #3 and #4 o Compensation for Vaccine-Related Injuries: A Technical Memorandum
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-5-o OTA Publications List--repring and updates o OTA Information Brochure, "What It Is, What It Does, How It Works" 2. Requests for OTA Publications During the first quarter of fiscal year 1981 (October 1 through December 31), the Publishing Office received 2,748 telephone and mail requests, averaging 45.8/day; of this total, 692 were requests from Congressional offices which averaged 11.5/day. 3. Private Sector Reprinting Private publishers have expressed interest in several OTA publications. As of now, they have or are in the process of reprinting 11 OTA publications and two publishers are both printing the same publication (Energy from Biological Processes, Vol. II). This is in addition to the sales by GPO and the National Technical Information Service (NTIS). The following is a listing of the commercial publishers and the OTA publications that are being reprinted: o Alanheld, Osmun Publishers, NY --The Effects of Nuclear War --Technology and East-West Trade --Residential Energy Conservation, Vol. 1 o Ballinger Publishing Co., Cambridge, MA --The Direct Use of Coal --Energy from Biological Processes, Vol. I o Friends of the Earch, Denver, CO --Energy from Biological Processes--Summary o McGraw Hill, NY --Enhanced Oil Recovery Potential in the United States --An Assessment of Oil Shale Technologies --World Petroleum Availability: 1980-2000 --Energy from Biological Processes, Vol. II o Praeger Publishing Co., NY --Nuclear Proliferation and Safeguards o Westview Press, Boulder, CO --Energy from Biological Processes, Vol. II 4. Sales of OTA Publications Sales of OTA Publications through the Superintendent of Documents are still proving to be quite popular with the public. According to a Superintendent of Documents spokesman, in comparison with other Federal agencies, OTA reports are considered good
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-6-sellers. They have been selling at a higher and faster volume, they're better prepared than most agencies' reports, and that they appear to be more understandable to the buying public .. ". The Superintendent of Documents had sold 12,131 OTA reports for the period October 1 through December 30, 1980. This figure averages out to 4,00o+ copies a month with gross receipts of $63,465. From January 1980 to December 1980, the GPO sold 48,203 OTA reports for a total gross income of $279,499. Sales of OTA publications through the National Technical Informatio~ Service (NTIS) has also been brisk. NTIS has informed us that they have 20 OTA publications on their best seller list. In addition, the Superintendent of Documents was recently requested by the Peoples Republic of China to exhibit U.S. Government publications in six cities of China in May 1981. Based on the specific interests of the Peoples Republic of China, the Superintendent of Documents chose 24 of OTA's publications for display. The following publications were chosen: o Cancer Testing Technology and Saccharin o Policy Implications of the Computed Tomography (CT) Scanner o An Evaluation of Railroad Safety o Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion o Application of Solar Technology to Today's Energy Needs, Vols. I & II o Assessing the Efficacy and Safety of Medical Technologies o The Direct Use of Coal o Drugs in Livestock Feed: Technical Report o A Review of Selected Federal Vaccine and Immunization Policies Based on Case Studies of Pneumococcal Vaccine o Technical Options for Conservation of Metals: Case Studies of Selected Metals and Products o Gasohol: A Technical Memorandum o Technology and East-West Trade o Environmental Contaminants in Food o Impact of Advanced Air Transport Technology, Pt. 1: Advanced High-Speed Aircraft o Recent Developments in Ocean Thermal Energy: A Technical Memorandum o Ocean Margin Drilling: A Technical Memorandum o Technology and Steel Industry Competitiveness o The Effects of Nuclear War o Materials and Energy from Municipal Waste o Computer Technology in Medical Education and Assessment: A Background Paper o Pest Management Strategies in Crop Protection o An Assessment of Oil Shale Technologies o Energy from Biological Processes o The Implications of Cost Effectiveness Analysis of Medical Technology
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-7-5. Other Activities In a joint effort, OTA, CRS, 0MB, and GAO put together an information kit about each agency and its functions. 100 copies of the kit were used by the Secretary of the Senate for an orientation seminar for the new Senators-Elect and their personal staffs; 200 copies distributed to CBO; 100 copies distributed to GAO; and 1,lOOcopiesdistributed to CRS to be used for their Congressional staffs. OTA served as the coordinator in this important effort. B. Communications with Congress 1. Testimony o House Counnittee on Interstate and Foreign Connnerce, Subcommittee on Energy and Power: Methanol Fuel o Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works: Steel Industry o Senate Committee on Budget, SubcoIIDllittee on Industrial Growth and Productivity: Steel Industry 2. Director's Congressional Appointments o The Honorable Ted Stevens, United States Senate o The Honorable Morris K. Udall, U.S. House of Representatives o The Honorable John w. Wydler, U.S. House of Representatives o The Honorable Larry Winn, Jr., U.S. House of Representatives o The Honorable Edward M. Kennedy, United States Senate 3. Responses to Congressional Inquiries OTA regularly receives inquiries from Congressional offices concerning issues which are the subject of ongoing or recently completed assessments. Responses to such inquiries are provided both orally or in brief written connnunications. Member Topic Congressman Nicholas Mavroules Plant Varieties Act, R.R. 999 Congressman Geroge E. Brown, Jr. Regulating Chemicals Major Issues in the Health Area Senator Bill Bradley Cogeneration, Dispersed Electricity
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-8-Senator Paul Tsongas Congressman Charles E. Grassley Congressman Bill Frenzel Congressman Caldwell Butler Congressman Thomas S. Foley Massachusetts Utilities Gasohol Prices Conservation Marketing Gasohol's Energy Balance Agricultural Water Use 4. Briefings, Presentations, Workshops for Congressional Staff Committee SENATE: Governmental Affairs Energy & Natural Resources Budget Judiciary Commerce, Science & Transportation Labor & Human Resources HOUSE: Agriculture Interior & Insular Affairs Interstate & Foreign Commerce Judiciary Topic Energy Technologies and Oil Supply Disruptions Coal Leasing Technology and Soviet Energy Availability DOE Conservation & Solar Energy Study Economic Growth and Productivity American Industry and Productivity Hearings Patent Study Space Program Technology and Oceanographic Report Patent Study Agricultural Water Use U.S. Food and Agricultural Research Agricultural Water Use Cost Effectiveness Analysis, Risk Assessment National Library of Medicine Methanol Fuel Dispersed Electric Study: PURPA and FUA Patent Study National Crime Information Center and Computerized Criminal History Systems
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-9-Science & Technology Major Issues in the Health Area Renewable Resources Technologies Information Technologies and Education Small Business Ways and Means Patent Study National Crime Information Center and Computerized Criminal History Systems Steel Industry Japanese Industrial Management Policy 5. Subjects of Interaction and Coordination with Other Congressional Support Agencies Agency CBO CRS GAO Topic Medical Technology and the Handicapped Cogeneration/District Heat Petroleum Refineries Inflation in Food Prices and Indirect Cost of Gasohol Production Dispersed Electric Energy Generation Systems Energy and Soviet Foreign Policy Washington Environment Development Group Medical Technology and the Handicapped Security Chapter of Electronic Funds Transfer Systems Information and Connnunication Technologies Coal Export Space Policy and Applications Dispersed Electric Energy Generation Systems Technology and Soviet Energy Availability MX Missile Basing Agriculture and Nutrition Medical Technology and the Handicapped Department of Justice Management Information Systems NSF Research Ship Management Outer Continental Shelf Leasing NASA Remote Sensing and Satellite Communications Program~ Air Navigation Systems
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-10-IV. EXTERNAL ACTIVITIES As part of its responsibility to provide the Congress with authoritative analyses of technological issues, OTA must maintain close and extensive ties with sources of technical and scientific expertise outside the Government. Presentations of OTA's data and analyses at professional meetings and publication in technical journals are among the ways that such contact can be developed and the quality and currency of OTA's work tested. A. Director o Aspen Conference, Energy Committee: Energy Conservation in Residential Buildings o Fall General Meeting of the USAF Scientific Advisory Board: The Air Force in the 80's o Brookings Institution: Perspectives on Coping with Massive Price Shifts o National Science Foundation, Division of Policy Research and Analysis: Technology Assessment and Risk Analysis o Governor Edmund G. Brown, Jr., State of California: National Technical Conference, National Governors' Association B. Staff 1. Presentations Organization Center for Renewable Resources National Gasohol Commission American Association for the Advancement of Science National Highway Transportation Safety Administration American Agronomy Society, Crop Science Society of America and Soil Science Society of America National Grain Dealer's Association Wood Energy Caucus Subject Community Energy Workshop on Cogeneration Dispersed Electric Energy Generation Systems Dispersed Electric Energy Generation Systems Review of Major Energy Issues Biomass Biomass Impacts of Gasohol Biomass
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Organization Quakers -11-National Energy Foundation Ohio State University Institute for Alternative Futures Institution of Electrical and Electronics Engineers and the Association for Science and Technological Innovation New York University, Graduate Business School West Point American Society for Metals Harvard/MIT Joint Center for Urban Studies in conjunction with Transportation Systems Center, U.S. Department of Transportation Cleveland Chapter American Powder Metallurgy Institute Environmental Protection Agency Swedish Royal Institute of Technology Washington Nutrition Group American Public Health Association National Nutrition Consortium 33rd Annual Conference on Engineering in Medicine and Biology Health Industry Manufacturers Association Subject Energy Futures High School Students on EnergyIndustry Energy and Alternative Social Futures Energy and Alternative Social Futures Productivity in Large Organizations Overseas OTA: What It Is; How It Works A Global Strategy for the 8O's -energy panel OTA Materials Program Regional Impacts of Petroleum Alternatives -A Framework for Regional Analysis (emphasis on oil shale as a synthetic fuel) Powder Metallurgy and Steel Industry Steel Industry Steel Industry Food Safety Federal Department of Health OTA Activities in Nutrition OTA, CRS, GAO, CBO Activities in Nutrition Technology Assessment in general Medical Technology
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-12-Organization Food and Drug Administration Pan American Health Organization American Public Health Association Michigan State Medical Society Rockefeller Foundation PAHO, Government of Argentina, and Catholic University of Buenos Aires Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development International Society of Reproductive Medicine American Public Health United Press International Washington Council for Medicine and Health MIT Conference on Biotechnology North American Telecoilllllunications Association Annual Convention George Washington University School of Law National Conference on Computer Related Crime University of Virginia School of Law Goucher College International Conference on Computer Communication Subject Federal Health Care Policies Appropriate Technology for Health The Uses of Cost-Effectiveness Analysis in Planning for Health Technology: Issues and Applications Resource Allocation and Ethical Decisions Resource Allocation and Health Technology Assessment Medical Technology Medical Technology Assessment World Setting for Research in Family Planning and Reproductive Medicine China's New Initiatives in Birth Planning Genetic Engineering Genetic Engineering and Government Genetic Engineering and Government Improving Communications with with Congress Communications Satellite Law and Policy Computer Crime and Congressional Actions Electronic Funds Transfer-Emerging Law Communciation Law Change Proposals in the 96th Congress Electronic Funds Transfer
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-13-Organization Fiscal Policy Council Washington Operations Research/ Management Sciences Council 2. External Publications Subject Innovation and Regulation Transportation: Brave New World or Just More Potholes o J.S. Hirschhorn, "Steel--It's No Loser," Baltimore Sun o J.S. Hirschhorn, "Putting Steel into Steel," The New York Times o S.E. Doyle, "Original Contributions to Concepts of Space Law," Historical Essay submitted to the National Space Club 3. Other Activities Organization Member of Swedish Parliament Member of Canadian Parliament Americans for Energy Independence Panel West German Conference Harvard Russian Research Center Russian Visitor Secretary of the Japan Society Harvard Center for International Affairs Japan Industrial Agency Environmental Protection Agency Symposium Keystone Center Institute of Medicine American Public Health Association Activity OTA and How It Might Fit into the Swedish Government OTA U.S. Oil Supply and Demand Projections to 1980 Political Management of Postwar Economic Change in Japan and West Germany Conference on Soviet Energy OTA Japanese Technology Technology Transfer to Soviet Union and China Industrial Competitiveness Future Steel Technology and the Environment Hazardous Waste Conference Institute of Medicine Annual Meeting Annual Meeting
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-14-Organization National Academy of Sciences Clay Minerals Society Baylor University National Academy of Sciences Farleigh Dickinson University UNESCO National Academy of Sciences Federal Bar Association National Academy of Science American Coalition of Citizens with Disabilities U.S. National Council on International Year of Disabled Persons American Society of Hospital Pharmacists Georgetown University Department of Pediatrics American Health Foundation American Society of Hospital Pharmacists Pennsylvania State University Industrial and Professional Advisory Council to the College of Engineering American Bar Association Yale University Activity Sunflower Oil Fuels for Farming Tractors Annual Meeting Sixth Symposium on Statistics and the Environment Symposium on Nutrition and Public Policy Man and the Biosphere Ad Hoc Diet, Nutrition, and Cancer Connnittee Accountability and the Management of the Regulatory Process Nutrition and the Elderly Underexploited Tropical Plants and Animals for Developing Countries Technologies and the Handicapped Technologies and the Handicapped Annual Meeting J.F. Kennedy Memorial Lectureship Carcinogen Bioassays and Their Role in Regulatory Policy Federal Health Policy Overview on the Quality of Engineering Education Information Privacy Project Transborder Data Flow Issues
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-15-Organization George Washington University Canadian Department of Communications California Space Institute Industrial Research Institute Federal Science and Technology Committee COMSAT Corporation Boeing Corporation Transportation Research Board Activity National Requirements for Education of Engineers Civilian Space Activities Economics, Political Issues, Technology of Extraterrestrial Manufacturing and Mining Material Processing and NASA Technology Transfer Remote Sensing, Commercialization and Communications Commercialization Issue Identifying Important Railroad Safety Related Research and Development Project for the Federal Railroad Administration
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-16-C. Notable Press-Requested Interviews o Approximately 700 press clippings were received at OTA pertaining to its reports and activities (sample clippings are included at the end of this report). o Interview on "Good Morning Washington" (ABC-TV, Channel 7) on Energy Expo '82 o Interview by Roger Peterson for ABC-TV News on Solar and Renewable Energy o Interview by Business Week magazine on energy issues o Interview by Financial Times (London) on CoCom (Mechanisms for trade of military value to the Soviet Union) o Interview by KOA Radio, Denver, Colorado, on cost effectiveness analysis o Interview by producers of NOVA for a program on privacy and security o Interview by TWA Ambassador on societal impacts of computing o Interview by Science '80 magazine on cryptographic policy o Interview by Pat Scherschel of U.S. News & World Report on the status of OTA's ongoing assessment of The Role of the U.S. Postal Service in Electronic Message Systems o Interview by National Geographic Society on oceanographic research ships o Interview by Voice of America overseas radio network on World Petroleum Availability: 1980-2000 Technical Memorandum o Interview by Mutual Broadcasting System (radio nes network) on World Petroleum Availability: 1980-2000 Technical Memorandum o Interview by Chicago Tribune on World Petroleum Availability: 1980-200 Technical Memorandum. D. Brown Bag Seminar Series The OTA Information Center sponsored ten seminars during the fourth quarter: Oct. 10 -Ed Abbott, OTA Energy Program How a Nuclear Reactor Works Oct. 17 -Fred Wood, OTA Telecommunications Program Videoconferencing and Congress
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-17-Oct. 24 -Phil Yeager, General Counsel, Committee on Science and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives The Role of the Office of Technology Assessment in Congress Oct. 31 Duncan Davies, Chief Scientist and Engineer, British Department of Industry Doing More with Less: Technologies, Institutions, & Attitudes Nov. 7 -Richard J. Barnet, Institute for Policy Studies National Security in the 1980's Nov. 14 L. Russell Freeman, LRF Consultants, Incl, Emission Offset Banking: A New Approach to the Clean Air Act Nov. 21 "The Biosphere" Film produced by the National Film Board of of Canada, in cooperation with Environment Canada Dec. 5 Dr. Philip Smith, Associate Director, National Resources and Commercial Services, Office of Science & Technology Policy The Office of Science and Technology Policy: An Overview Dec. 12 -Curt Fritz, Program Manager, U.S. Department of Commerce The Domestic Information Display System
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Selected News Clips --~------------. on OT A Publications arid Activities
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Global Energy
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Christian Science Monitor (P. l) Monday, Oct. 20, 1980
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b:I p:: 0 '"d 11> 0 I-' ::r I-' ,::: 11> 0 ...... Cll Ill 11> 11> rt 1:1 1:1 < 0 .... I-'-1:1 ....... -;;1 _..._ 11> ............. .,_ l:=1 '"d lt '-'O 11> 11> Cll Cll 'Cl z rt c:: r~ Ul 11 1-'I Ill n t::j ...... p. n t1 .... Cl) II> t1 rt I-' n .... 11> II> I-' fj II> 'Cl 'O 11> II> 11 11> p. b:I t-< I-' 0 11> 1:1 n 11> .. II> Cll r:r rt ()Q 0 1:1""' ....... ~--n 0 fl en 11 n I-'
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.Washington Post (P. 5) Monday, Oct. 20, 1980
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New York Times (P. D-1, Business Section) Monday, Oct. 20, 1980
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ChicaJo Trib\lile Oct~ 20, 1980 ,., --,~ .. -.'
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This article also appeared in: Wichita (KS) Eagle and Beacon
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The Wall Street Journal (P. A-2) Monday, Oct. 20, 1980
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Journal of Commerce Oct. 20, 1980 According to OTA Report .-:World's Oil Supply 'Precarious' By DENISE LAMOT more precarious than lndicattion, "we will be in real .,_,..1 o1 C-.lff si.H ed by its mere physical availatrouble in the year ahead." WASHINGTON -Even unbility." He maintains that "serious .der lavorable circumstances OTA says that not only will and sustained efforts to in-. there most likely will be little the United States be unable to crease efficiency and cut or no increase in world oil expect increased imports, but waste in our use of fuel" is the _., ... : the rest of the in the near future will proba only way the country will be P'"\N"._ .. on over able to reduce1 ts depende: century, wanis a report issued bly face much stiffercompeti-u ... at the weekend. tion for available oil supplies on oil in a short amount of The Congress' Office of at even lower levels of foreign time. ., Technology Assessment, in a imports to the rest of the While tlie report indicates technical memorandum preworld. that it may be physically pared for the Senate Foreign Rep. Morris Udall,. P.Ariz., possible-to increase world oil ,. Relations Committee. says chairman of OTA's congres-production. by as.much as 3! :. that the conflict between Iran sional board. sa,-the -study 'by the 1990s, it says and Iraq has emphasized that .,.,. that UDless the United that "no substantial. increases the world's oil supply is_ "far ___ States takes immediate acare likely to occur because the ----countries that mast contribute to an increase of this size have little financial or political incentive to do so." Even U.S. production may decline to a level of 7.2 million barrels of oil -per day as early as. 1985 from current produc-(Continued on Page _) World Oil Supply Seen 'Precarious' _(Continued f~ Page 38) A tion of 10.2 million barrels daily, says the report. :.;,OTA eicpects oil production .in.rihe non-Communist world u a wh to begm fa1liflg bf the mid-19808. The "llOD:Com:munist industrialized tries will see no stgnlflcant :1nerease in production. "am! :may, in fact, e.zpenence I decrease of as mucta as 50 '. percent by the year 2000:: :predicts OTA. ... Meanwhile, Commuatat countries could cease being net exporters of oil earty .. ~-tbe decade, primarily -to decllnes jn; Sovret oil prodac-tion. Ol'A warns -~~(th~~: of Eastern Europaui~ons, and: conceivably the' ~et Union itself, into the world oil market will intensify the sure on world oil prices and ha!e potentially serious implication for U.S. foreign policy. In 1977, says the report, Eastern European countries were 60 percent dependent on the -Soviet Union for their oil suppttes, with another 20 ~cent coming from Iran and Iraq.
PAGE 34
OIi ,~.c.: : .. :e-,2::}.itt'i~~ pru,ie .; ,_; MrTaha 'Yassin Ramadan, told Le -A word from the !:=~~-~.could iastone ye~ t I I ,_ The" OTA ~rt concludes that Opec -' cony~r:1:, 1pn~ :Y ~,1_~e_prciducti_on is~:,nlite1yto rise by more. 7 ~ -: -<:",~-, r :ii:;;.. tbanamthbeiwecnl979andtheendof--.-n. new orthodoxy about futuieoillllq)- _the .ceii~,. even if Saudi-Arabia pro... pliea is summed up by. a report~ published duces at the of its likely capac:. -this' week~ by America's congressional-i ity-and Iraq~ lf~1uchieve (implausibly :. OfflceofTedmology;Asaessment; Draw-,'.-high?}'producti~,levels of Sm-bid and iq heawy on a Rand corporation.study'.;. .. 4m b/41cspective~~ At.least asJikely isa ".'~ o1 worktoil resources, tbe-.OTA~'. '.~ dtup.:or:.~ -; bid in-~ 0pe ~?J --three central problems forllOD.c:om--productioa. as: everyone: throttles back-: maaisi supplies of coil!~~ oil_in ~:: .or simply: failit to invest.the money need,. ; ,_,, .1980aand 1990&,-. :,:/t'.~,;~~%~J)*f:#ttedJi>.-~outputatemting.Jevels. ; -; '.;: Adrop_iaoilprodumon:indeveloped 'Ihirdwodd oil~i$~y to be-impor ~. c:omatries;. caused mainly tJJ: declining ; tant. for iiidivi'dual Im-developed coun. \ Anmican output. Ttn& fall in' American tries;: not sc;;. helpful. for therest of the and-the.~inability~ .. 1of otbet,:-:~WOrld~ Apart~MexicoandOpec, the .. dftdoped countries to iilcreas produc-:_ ldcs,produced.;3;Sm b/din.19-79~ In 1985. timr to offset it~ are mostly consequences. says'~ OTA; they may produce 4.5m. ot geology, rather thmr of government Sm 1,/d and by 20004m-6m bid. Mexico is policy. Economics-also. plays~a part. by likely toadd'3m-4m to those figwu ia radering the deep An:tic seas unaploi -:198.S~ 1.Sm-S:Sm in 2000. ,,_,, -~>.,,, table.at likely oil prices. '..Technology \ Altogether. allowing-for-a possihlll --::: ~ pia,s a role too: the OT A is less optimis--. 'shift_ by C!'Jllnninist coQ!Jtries towards net tiethan it 'i.vu two years. .. ago. that en-: -~ the oil available to the noa,. -~ hanced recovery' .. techniques. will allow. '.comnnmist' cou:ntries in,1985. is likely, oilmen to leave less oil in the ground.. .. ''./says, the OTA; to be:,wiihin 15%-either L 1?' Political c:cilings on 0pec: oil produc-; way of thi19'79evel,.. though the tone of :':'; tion.OeologicalargumentsledtbeOTA: .the rq,ort suggests.the:Jowerfigure ia .. to conclude that. more than baJf tile, monrlikely .-., ;y;:->,:,: _;rj, :'. .:_, :r : world'.s remaininaroil resources lie.in the: ''"Tune= will'-tell. -The,autt,.ors' have,Jeft Middle East.-Yec the.countries that con-' synthetic oif, fromoihhaleorcoal, outol -=: trol these i'eso~ally Saudi' their .adculatioos; And, because they -. ~, Iran, Iraq andKuwait-ar'ec Im--:c" concentrate. ,OD ou,:they may be: Over!--~ '., willing to step: up ~oduction under~-gloomy~ OUJs,-'10t.thiiworld's onlycfuet -> :seat c:ircwnstaoc:e3. '., ;'.' ',;.~.r:.;_~i:,;; ,:/;-,j~'.~ t.ast:wcek:Southem California Emso~ -. ,. m the future, at Ieast.as. long_as_0pec .. lead.int American electricity utility, an,.._ ', holds; together, member countries: nounc:ed that it planned to get30% of us ., may wish to lower production further. supplies from renewable resources; main' And, 'as the -Coulf, wu-shows, political ,' ly solat, in 199(K H the electricity cominterruptions' to oil production can be panics' arc really trying to do without oil~ ezpected, perhaps lengthy on~~ This. ~-or:-nu~e2U"; anythini is possible. "' ,~~:~--~\::-,:e~=~::~:;:lf:1!{;~'.7f;~:; ':;_;:~~---~:--'~ -_ .'!'J;-i ;, ... lfan .. --~" -~ ..... .. ,; '-3.0-, I. .;, ";a,3;0,0 ,. ,_!, '3.0.0 Unitlld Afab:Emirates-. ';:'*'""":'.; ': t.9 .. 1.9.S 1.9.0 K&lweit ._ H,' 2.& r : c::,/,,1.1J.4-' :.,-t.9..4 Other Opeccountriea >_; .s :,, :. 10.7 9.5-10.S : 8.0-10.0 O,.C totat -. 31.4 ... : ... 28.WS.O.,, 27 0-37.0 ----:.-, &_-::~ .:. :-~)J: ~:-;~-.:; ;_,t; .1 '. .. c 1.8 .::.~/;',,-._.,,'3.Q~'4J) .. ,_ .. :;:'.,3.5---5.5 .. ,, .5 4.5-.0 4.0-8.0 .. 5.1 7-ScI.0 ,, .. 7.5-11.5 Net communist exporta (IITlp
PAGE 35
Philadelphia (PA) Inquirer Oct. 20, 1980 Similar articles also appeared in: Springfield (MA) Morning Union Boston (MA) Globe New York (NY) Post Hartford (CT) Courant Montgomery (AL) Advertiser Chicago (IL) Sun-Times Bloomington (IL) Pantagraph Calgary, Alberta (Canada) Telegraph Greenville (SC) News Wheeling (IL) Herald Buffalo Grove (IL) Herald Columbus (GA) Enquirer Augusta (GA} Chronicle Washington (PA) Observer Reporter Easton (PA} Express Florence (SC) News Phoenix (AZ) Business Gazette Wilmington (NC) Star Sidney (MT) Herald Oak Ridge (TN) Oak Ridger Lexington (NC) Dispatch New Bern (NC) Sun Journal Winston-Salem (NC) Journal Brunswick (GA) News Arlington Hgts. (IL) Herald Charlotte (NC) Observer Warner Robins (GA) Sun Uniontown (PA) Herald-Standard
PAGE 36
Similar Articles (cont'd~) Warren (PA) Times & Observer Saratoga Springs (NY) Saratogian Decatur (AL) Daily Talladega (AL) Home Columbia (SC) State Kinston (NC) Free Press Moscow (ID) Idahonian Jacksonville (FL) Times-Union Rock Hill (SC) Herald Camden (SC) Chronicle Charleston (SC) News & Courier Fort Myers (FL) News-Press Anderson (SC) Independent Orangeburg (SC) Times & Democrat Charleston (SC) Post Mt. Prospect (IL) Herald Bridgewater (NJ) Courier News Mesa (AZ) Tribune Reno (NV) State Journal Renton (WA) Record Chronicle Hazleton (PA) Standard-Speaker Hayward (CA) Review Atlanta (GA) Constitution New Iberia (LA) Iberian Reading (PA) Times Sun City (AZ) News-Sun Rolling Meadows (IL) Herald Kent (WA) News Journal Elk Grove Village (IL) Herald Meadville (PA) Tribune Bisbee (AZ) Daily Review Fort Collins (CO) Coloradoan Las Vegas (NV) Review-Journal North Las Vegas (NV) Valley Times Grand Junction (CO) Sentinel Utica (NY) Daily Press Beckley (W.VA) Post-Herald Elmira (NY) Star-Gazette Huntington (W.VA) Herald-Dispatch Roselle (IL) Hoffman Estates Herald Syracuse (NY) Post-Standard Palatine (IL) Herald Chattanooga (TN) Daily Times Colorado Springs (CO) Gazette Telegraph Reno (NV) Gazette Kingman (AZ) Miner Minneapolis (MN) Tribune Davenport (IW) Quad-City Times Topeka (KS) Sunday Capital-Journal St. Joseph (MO) Gazette Auburn (WA) Globe News Bremerton (WA) Sun Boonville (MO) News Bay City (TX) Tribune Houston (TX) Post Mobile (AL) Register Stanford (CA) University Daily Opelika (AL) Auburn News Fort Worth (TX) Star-Telegram Tampa (FL) Tribune Athens (GA) News Poughkeepsie (NY) Journal Portsmouth (OH) Times Brenham (TX) Banner-Press Sierra Vista (AZ) Herald-Dispatch Fresno (CA) Bee Santa Ana (CA) Register Geneva (NY) Finger Lakes Times Glen Falls (NY) Post-Star Tulsa (OK) World San Antonio (TX) Express San Francisco (CA) Chronicle Houma (LA) Courier & Terrebonne Press Roanoke (VA) Times & World-News Sioux Falls (SD) Argus-Leader Pueblo (CO) Chieftain Riverside (CA) Enterprise Boston (MA) Globe Long Beach (CA) Independent-Press Telegram Sacramento (CA) Union Yreka (CA) Siskiyou News Denver (CO) Rocky Mountain News El Paso (TX) Times De~Moines (IW) Register Dayton (OH) Journal Herald Houston (TX) Post Bi:cmingham (AL) Post-Herald Wilmington (DE) Morning News Bluefield (W.VA) Daily Telegraph Opelousas (LA) World Joplin (MO)Globe Monroe (LA) News-Star World Houston (TX) Chronicle Kansas City (MO) Times Omaha (NB) World-Herald Providence (RI) Journal Stamford (CT) Advocate Springfield (MA) Union Waterbury (CT) Republican New Bedford (MA) Standard-iimes Pittsburgh (PA) Post-Gazette Cleveland (OH) Plain Dealer Seattle (WA) Daily Times Los Angeles (CA) Herald Examiner Champaign (IL) News Gazette Norwich (CT) Bulletin Baltimore (MD) Evening Sun
PAGE 37
Oakland (CA) Tribune Oct. 20. 1980
PAGE 38
Similar articles also appeared in: Napa (CA) Register San Jose (CA) Mercury Lawrenceville (GA) Gwinnett News Gainesville (OH) Times Jonesboro (GA) News-Daily Rochester (NY) Times-Union Dublin (GA) Courier Herald Jeannette (PA) News-Dispatch Connellsville (PA) Courier Canandaigua (NY) Messenger Selma (AL) Times-Journal Guymon (OK) Herald Clinton (OK) News Medina (NY) Journal-Register West Palm Beach (FL) Evening Times Dubois (PA) Courier-Express Jennings (LA) News Honolulu Star-Bulletin Cartersville (GA) Tribune News Amsterdam (NY) Recorder Vinita (OK) Journal Jacksonville (IL) Journal Doylestown (PA) Intelligencer Santa Monica (CA) Outlook The Trentonian (NJ) Paterson (NJ) News Tyrone (PA) Herald Waxahachie (TX) Light Oklahoma City (OK) Journal Sapulpa (OK) Herald Erie (PA) Daily Times Simi Valley (CA) Enterprise Sun & News San Clemente (CA) Sun-Post Middletown (NY) Times Herald Record Stroudsburg (PA) Pocono Record Chico (CA) Enterprise Record Monessen (PA) Valley Independent Ellwood City (PA) Ledger Woburn (MA) Daily Times & Chronicle Shreveport (LA) Times Ogden (UT) Standard-F.xamiu~r Morgan City (LA) Review Kirksville (MO) Express & News Rolla (MO) News Blackwell (OK) Journal-Tribune El Reno (CA) Tribune Baltimore (MD) Record Port Jervis (NY) Union Gazette Fairmont (W. VA) Times-West Virginian Plattsburgh (NY) Press-Republican Binghamton (NY) Sun-Bulletin Corning (NY) Leader Parkersburg (W.VA) News Crawfordsville (IN) Journal & Review Cornell (NY) Tribune Cumberland (MD) Times Chicago (IL) Sun-Times Chicago (IL) Defender Harrisburg (PA) Patriot Shenandoah (PA) Herald Waynesboro (PA) Record Herald Garden City (NY) Newsday Minneapolis (MN) Star Flagstaff (AZ) Sun Ellensburg (WA) Record Russell (KS) News Carson City (NV) Appeal Kendallsville (IN) News-Sun Philadelphia (PA) Evening Bulletin Detroit (MI) Free Press Bend (OR) Bulletin Boulder (CO) Camera Philadelphia (PA) Daily News Woodward (OK) Press Kittanning (PA) Leader-Times Rome (GA) News-Tribune Charlotte (NC) News Raleigh (NC) News & Observer Radnor (PA) Iron Age Marietta (GA) Journal Memphis (TN) Commercial Appeal Hudson (NY) Register Star College Station (TX) Battalion Sanford (NC) Herald Raleigh (NC) Times New York (NY) News World Martinsville (VA) Bulletin Eugene (OR) Register-Guard Austin (TX) Daily Texan Dalles (OR) Chronicle Celina (OH) Standard Guthrie (OK) Leader Sacramento (CA) Bee Fresno (CA) Bee El Paso (TX) Herald-Post Roseburg (OR) News Review Dallas (TX) Times Herald Dallas (TX) Morning News Mattoon (IL) Journal Gazette Alexandria (LA) Town Talk Coos Bay (OR) World South Boston (VA) News & Record Minden (LA) Press Herald Delphos (OH) Herald Conroe (TX) Courier Ashland (OR) Tidings Oregon City Enterprise-Courier Klamath Falls (OR) Herald & News Dexter (MO) Statesman Tulsa (OK) Tribune
PAGE 39
Similar Articles (cont.'d) San Francisco (CA) Examiner Alameda (CA) T:f.mes Star Whittier (CA) News New Orleans (LA) Times-Picayune Phoenix (AZ) Republic Denver (CO) Post Auburn {IN) Star Jacksonville (IL) Courier Newark (NJ) Star-Ledger Martins Ferry (OH) Times-Leader Detroit (MI) News Logan (UT) Herald Journal Keokuk (IW) Gate City Atlanta (GA) Journal St. Louis (MO) Post-Dispatch Milwaukee (WI) Sentinel Daily Wakefield (MA) Item Haverhill (MA) Gazette Salt Lake City (UT) Tribune Salt Lake City (UT) Deseret News Provo (UT) Herald Clinton (MA) Item Marlborough (MA) Hudson Daily Sun West Warwick (RI) Pawtuxet Valley Times Lowell (MA) Sun San Jose (CA) Mercury Bryan (OH) Times Ravenna-Kent (OH) Record-Courier Ashtabula (OH) Star-Beacon Pittsfield (MA) Berkshire Eagle Attleboro (MA) Sun Chronicle Winsted (CT) Citizen Monmouth (IL) Review Atlas Delaware (OH) Gazette Wheeling (W.VA) Intelligencer Wheeling (W.VA) News-Register Hutchinson (KS) News Atlanta (GA) Journal
PAGE 40
Chic_ijSQ Tribune Qct, 291 1980 This article also appeared in: Kansas City (KS) Star Detroit (MI) Free Press Colorado Springs (CO) Gazette Telegraph
PAGE 41
Pqrtland Oregonian Oct. 20, 1980 Newark (NJ) Sunday Star-Ledger St. Louis (MO) Globe-Democrat Springfield (MA) Daily News Little Rock (AK) Gazette Worthington (MN) Globe This article also appeared in: Huntsville (AL) Times Clearwater (FL) Sun Syracuse (NY) Herald Journal Jacksonville (FL) Times-Union
PAGE 42
The San Diego Union Oct. 20, 1980
PAGE 43
This article also appeared in: Oklahoma City Times Youngstown (OR) Vindicator Schenectady (NY) Gazette Wenatchee (WA) World Birmingham (AL) News Houston Chronicle Oct. 21, 1980
PAGE 44
Long Beach (CA) Independent Nov. 10, 1980 This article also appeared in: San Antonio (TX) Express San Francisco (CA) Chronicle Springfield (MA) Union
PAGE 45
Atlanta Constitution (P. 11-D) Monday, Oct. 20, 1980
PAGE 46
Asian Wall Street Journal Oct. 22~ 1980 .. .__ ,...... .:.....----~----~-_ _..:-. --~-.....:.---World Oil Output May Drop 20% By 2000, U.S. Senate Study Says ll~'i4l to THS WAU. STuft J008N4L WASHINGTON Political factors and technical hurdles could cause tatal world oil production tD drop as muc.b as 20'ro by the year 1JIOO, according to a report by the Con gn?SSioaa.l Office of Techno~ Assessment. Tbe study, prepared ror-the-Seliafe For eign Relations Committee, is more pessimis tic than some recent projections by other federal agencies and several major oil com panies that world oil production by the end of tbe century 1,Day increase slightly or stay rougbly at today's level of about &2 millioa barrels ai day. The study forecasts that tDtal production. under certain circumstances. could drop as low as roughly so million bar re!s a day, With non-communist countries accounting for most of the reduction. As a result of anticipated tighter slip piies. the report goes on tD say, the U.S. probably will face stiffer competition for oil imports and, in fact. may end up competing With some Communist countries tD buy oil in the Middle East and other areas. The study, entitled "World Petroleum Availability 1980-2000," attempts a country byCOWltl'Y breakdown of future production levels, likelihood of discoveries of new rese"es and major political and economic considerations that may influence output for the next two decades. One of the'major con clusiooa reached by the study is that oil productlOD iD the non-communist world could begin to decline in the next few years and could slump as low as 40 million barrels a day by 2000. The Free World produced around so million barrels a day before the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq war. ,. The low end of the production estimates m report falls below recent world oil production forecasts by Exxon Corp., British Petroleum Ltd. and the Congressional Bud get Office. The study also says that produc tion by members of the Organization of PetrolellJII Exporting Countries in the next 20 years will range around the current level of 31 million barrels a day. The study con eludes that dependence on Arab countries for oil isn't expected to decrease, partly because most of the additions to the world's known oil supplies are expected to come from fields in that part of the world. The report also says that if oil pl'llduction by the Soviet Union slacks off by the 19905. as many predict. a number of East EUropean countries and perhaps Rus.,ia !tsell may be fol'Cl!d to import sizable amounts of oil from non-communist sources. The report doesn't specifically forecast future world consumption levels or what impact they may have on prices. For the U.S .. the study estimates that domestic oil production could drop as low as four million barrels a day by 2000 from the 1979 production level of more than 10 million barrels a day. Separately, the Energy Department re leased a study forecasting a drop in total pe troleum consumption in the U.S. for all of this year of more than 6% from last year to about 17.3 million barrels a day. Net U.S. oil imports for 1980. the study says, are ex pected to decline 18% from last year to about 6.5 million barrels a day. The report concludes, however, that by the middle of 1981, such year-to-year de clines in imports and consumption in the U.S. probably will end, and the !;re: may c~mb sliglltly above current lev ,--J
PAGE 47
Energy User News Oct. 20, 1980
PAGE 48
Oil Daily Oct. 21, 1980
PAGE 49
~latt's Oilgram News Oct. 17, 1980 FREE WORLD OUTPUT STEADY TO t 2000-U .S. TECHNOLOGY OFFICE Washington 10/16-Non-Communist world oil supply, currently 52-m ill ion b/d, won1t exceed 60-m ill ion b/d through the year 2000, according to a "technical memorandum" drawn up by the Congressional Office of Technological Assessment. On the other end of the range, productioncoiilcl drop as low as 45-m ill ion b/ d by 1990 and 40-million b/d by D>O. OT A said the main unknown that will affect production within this range will be the size of potential increases in Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Iraq and the decrease in U .s. production. The OT A memo also made these points: -Production in non-Communist industrialized countries won1t increase significantly and may drop by as much as 50'6 by the year 2000.ln particular, U .s. output could drop as low as 4-milllon b/d by then unless there is extensive new drilling and use of enhanced recovery. -OPEC output through 2000 will not differ significantly from the current 31-m ill ion b/d level. There is little reason to expect Saudi production to increase beyond 12-m ill ion b/d. -The most likely additions to world oil supplies i11 the near term will be from additional recovery in kno\ -'-fields instead of new discoveries. Middle East supplies will remain dominant, since over half of any such additions will come from that region. -Canadian production is expected to remain at the current 1 .6-m illlon b/d to 1 .&-million b/d through 1985. After that, it will range between 1-million b/d and 2-milllon b/d depending on success in the Beaufort Sea and other Arctic areas. This forecast excludes possible tar sands production. -North Sea overall output could reach 4-million b/d by 1985 if government plans allow, but this would necessarily be followed by a decline to as low as 1.7-million b/d in 2000, even with significant new additions to reserves. ----
PAGE 50
Despite Iran-Iraq War Engineering Times (P. 16) December 1980 Oil Companies See Stable World Market in Short Term By Andrew Jacobson Staff Writer Oil company economists are pre dicting possible stability in the world oil market for the short term, despite supply cuts caused by the Iran-Iraq war. Spot market prices, however, have already been pushed upward because of the conflict, and long-term forecasts for world oil production re main dim. "For the time being, without any major disruptions,. real price jumps may be behind us." said Atlantic Rich field Chief Economist David Sternlight, at a world symP.osium on energy this fall in Knoxville, Tennessee. In fact, the recent war has tightened up an otherwise soft market caused by record high inventories, he added. Other oil executives; testifying at recent. congressional hearings, said that because of its high inventories the U.S. is not threatened. The world is in better shape to deal with supply interruptions than prior to the Iranian revolution, according to Brice Sachs, executive vice presi dent of Exxon International. The free world, he said, currently has 500 million barrels of crude and product inventory above the normal 800 million needed for winter demand. In addition, 500 million bar rels in mandatory and strategic stor age exist. If the war causes the loss of four million barrels per day, it would be at least four months before stocks were reduced to normal levels. Washington economist Robert Samuelson also sees some possible stability in world oil markets, mostly due to depression in demand for oil.. "No longer is the world beset by gallofing increases in consumption that, oi cartel or no oil cartel, would have produced a price explosion," Samuel son argues. ( --------------------. Optimistic Assessments All of these optimistic assessments, it should be noted, are accompanied by the disclaimer that a stable market assumes no major Mideast catastro phes leading to major disruptions. But while short-run prospects for U.S. oil needs look sausfactory, the loss of Iranian-Iraqi crude has put pressure on developing nations and has affected the spot market for oil. "This interruption will have a greater impact on some of the less de veloped countries of the worldcountries which are P.roportionally more dependent on od imports and less well equipped to cope with inter ruptions," said former Deputy Energy Secretary John Sawhill-also spe~king at the world energy sym poSium. Most affected have been Somalia, India, and Brazil-all of whom previ ously received a major portion of their oil imports from Iran and/or Iraq. Otherr-including Mozambique, Madagascar, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Turkey--have turned to Saudi Arabia which has agreed to take up the slack. The loss of deliveries has also begun to push up prices of crude on the spot market. While this new pressure on prices for oil not covered by long term contracts has initially hurt less developed countries, West European nations-namely Spain and Francealso expect to feel the price rise. And lest anyone become too confident about the world's oil situation, Congress' ffi e of Technolo As sessment (OTA) remm s us t at even under favorable conditions, there will most likely be little or no increase in world oil production from conven tional sources over the rest of the cen tury. Stiffer Competition Not onlv will the U.S. be unable to expect increased imports over current levels, OTA concluded in a new studv, but it will face much stiffer competition for world supplies at even lower levels of imports. OTA points out that recent esti mates of oil availability for the rest of the century have been more pessimis tic than in the past. Even forecasts by Exxon are more negative than oil company estimates made before the Iranian revolution, said OTA. The OTA report forecasts that world oil production will range be tween 40 and 60 million barrels per day in 2000, while Exxon recently es timated 60 MBD. OTA predicts the U.S. will produce between 4 and 7 MBD in 2000, while Exxon forecasts 6 MBD. By contrast, the L'.S. produced 10.2 MBD during 1979.
PAGE 51
..,, Energy Today (Washington, D.C.) Oct. 13, 1980 -Volume VIII, Number 3 WORLD OIL PROSPECTS October 13, 1980 Planners should consider the "highly likely" possibility that.there will be little or no incr.ease in world production of oil from conventional sources during the next two decades, and output in the industrialized non-Communist world could begin to decline in the next few years, Congress was told. The Office of Tefcbno4,0ay Aument (OTA) offered this _outlook in a report which asserts that although it may be physically possible to increase world oil production significantly -perhaps by one-third -by the 1990s, financial, political and 8practical" problems make this -unlikely. Prospects, however, may not be as grim as they appear. Only conventional sources are included. Production from canadian tar sands, the Orinoco Belt in Venezuala, oil shale or synthetic pro ducts from biomass or coal are not included in the estimates. On the other hand, the report was completed before any assessment could be made on oil from the warring nations of Iraq and Iran. The assumption of political stability in the major exporters leads to an OTA projection of non-Commw between 45-60 million barrels per day in 1985 and 52 MBD in 1979. (Last December, Exxon projected conventional free rising to 58 MBD in 1990 and 60 MBD in 2000, plus synthetic production. British Petroleum forecast crude production would peak in 1985 in the range decline to 40-48 MBD in 2000. The BP study did r. production, which is about 3 MBD at today's rate.
PAGE 52
Energy Resources & Technology / (Silver Spring, MD) Oct. 24, 1980 ,) '. WORLD Oil PRODUCTION SEEN AS UNABLE TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY IN NEXT 20 YEARS I~-a bleak projection of the world oil outlook for the next 20 years, the Congressional Qffice of Technology Assessment this week said there is. likely to be little or no increase in world oil production, while U.S. output could decline to 4-million barrels per day. OTA's report, "World Petroleum Availability 1980-2000," said that under these conditions the U.S. will be unable to expect increased imports over current levels, and will additionally face heightened competition for world oil supplies at even lower import levels. U.S. policies for reduction of dependence on oil should be aimed at preparing the country to meet that future, according to OTA. Assuming political stability in the major exporting countries, OTA's analysis projects non-Communist world oil supplies as ranging from 45-to 60-million bbl/day in 1985 and 40-to 60-million bbl/day in 2000. This compares to a 1979 level of 52-million bbl/day. Physically, it may be possible to increase world oil production by up to 33% by the 1990s, but sizeable increases are highly unlikely because countries t~at could contribute to such an increase have little financial or political incentive to do so and because any attempt to increase production would run into a number of practical as well as political problems, OTA said. OPEC production during.the next 20 years will remain largely unchanged. Outside of Iran, only Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates and Iraq have the capability .to increase production. Substantial dependence on the Persian Gulf "is likely to continue with its obvious implications for foreign policy," OTA said. As a result of increases in Mexican production, output in less developed countries will rise above current levels, but most of this will be offset by increased LDC demand. As for large new discoveries, OTA said promising areas for large finds outside the Middle East are in the Arctic or involve areas of territorial dispute. "There ap pears little possibility that the Middle East oil fields will be duplicated elsewhere," OTA said, and substantial production from new sources is unlikely in this decade. U.S. production is forecast to decline. from its present level of 10.2-million bbl/day (including natural gas liquids), to-7.2-to 8.5-million bbl/day in 1985. Production in the year 2000 may range from 4to 7-million bbl/day, according to OTA. The 7-million bbl/day high estimate for 2000 would depend on annual additions to proven reserves of 1-billion bbl. and extensive utilization of enhanced recovery. Indeed, additions to the world-'s petroleum supplies are seen by OTA as resulting largely from additional recovery in known fields rather than from new field discoveries. More than half of these new additions are expected to be in the Middle East, OTA said,. so the dominance of that region in the oil supply system will not be altered. A I\
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World Oil Outlook Looks Unpr_omising To_ OTA Specialists Chemical Marketing Reporter (New York, NY) World oil production is expected to. show little-or no increase during the next twenty years, according to a somewhat pessimistic forecast released last week by the Office of Tecn~i9G....MS~~ent .!"' agency of the Congress. Of'A nndings were re. ported to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in a. technical memoran. dum. Some of OTA's pessimism derives from its conclusion that although "it.. may be pbysjeally possible to inerease world production of oil significantly (perhaps 33-percent) by the 19908," it is "extremely ~t. ly" that there will be substantial gains In output "because the ~dons capable of contributing to such an Increase have no flaa. cial or; political incentive to do so and be cause a number of practical P,~blems would arise if a significant increase m pn,-duction were attempted." Oct. 27, 1980 ~duded-in the OTA technical memorandum. 'Pat-the no~mmunist warid, oil pniduc. tiun is expected to range between 45 and 60 million barreJs daily in 1985, and between *and 60 ~Ilion barrels in 2000, compared ,....._ ~-)llltfoa of Petmleum Expol'ting Countries is not expected by OTA in the next twenty years to lnerease much above the 31 million ~_of C?~ daily now being Produced._ In particular, the OTA findings cite the Contblred oa Page.JiB V c':' -:. > ,....-.. te about 52 million barrels daily irr 1979. US production of oil, meantime, may -~drop from about 10.2 million barrels daily 1 'llOW to-between &"5 and 7.2 million barreJs a day in 1985,-0TA suggests. The industrialized nations outside of the -., __ ...,.. __ __ -,,: Communist countries, mo~ver, may ex--IAl.'(),..1,1 art ~---~ perience a cut.in production by the year 1,e_ .. .,-,c l lU 11 ,. _.; -, 2000 of as much as sopercent, OTA says in Continued from Page S' .. its ftndfngs. supply situation arising from the Iraqi-IraCommunist countries, meantime, could. Dian w~ now. beingwaged .. This conflict switch from being net exporters of oil. This points up U... poqibility tbat world oil pro,. shift could occur within a few years, and, be ductfoo la-~far more preearfous than indlthe ...,._t ot decreasing production by the ~fed by its mere pllysjcal availability..' So.._ Union, OTA says. -~anuy by eoutry analyses an bl~uctiOll by the nations in theOrgani-
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Energy Info (Dana Point, CA) December 1980 OBSERVATIONS wh soothsayer could in the (1) Much, if not all, of at a was in the eye of the trldi1ional crvs~I bal!t; i:a~:e e!nputer. And though ~is behold-Today~ cry 'ncredibl more sophisticated than its powerful eleetromc tool 11~ 'f no/ all that it foresees is to be mysti~ pre~:i ;: p~mer. 'For example, in grap~ling found ,n the inP11t Id ...., future the computerized i ut nthewor ene.,., I with np O __ ., 1Put alternately soothes and a arms. analyzed and verbal,_.. ou ti released by the Office of T echnoiogy Assess A stUdy recen VU S Congress is not ilkeiy to soothe anyone. ment (OTA), of the d bleak forecast, Rep. Morris K. Udall Summing up the stu Y s Co essional Board warned: (O-Arizona), chainnthan of .~:.~. un':ct States takes fmmediate '"Th report shows at un-action, we will be in real trouble in the years ahead. The only wav we can C1Jt our oil dependence enough in that short a time is through_ serious and sustained efforts to increase efficiency and cut waste in our use of oil." Entitled "WorldPetroleum Availability: 1980 2000," the study critically examines prospects for world oil production, as well related political and economic factors. The range of OT A estimates for such production is much lower than those of other organizations, awn considering the drop in petroleum availability generally forecast since the outbreak of hostilities between Iran and Iraq .. Among the kev points made in the study are these: World petroleum availability from conventional sources in the year 2000 is estimated, at best, to reach 60 million (42-gallonl barrels per day (MBOI. U.S. production, also in 2000, will be 4-7 MBO. (A recent Exxon forecast estimates 6 MBD, and 1979 production was 10.2 MBD.I Though it may be physically possible to boost world oil production as much as 33% by the 1990's, no substantial increases are likely, largely due to financial and political factors. World oil production, excluding the output of the Communist countries, could start to drop by the early 1980's. Also there will be no significant increase in pro duction by the year 2000, and there could even be a decline of as much as 50%. Communist countries, because of decreased Soviet pro duction, may by the early 1980's cease being a net exporter of oil to other countries; the related entry of Eastsm European countries, and possibly the Soviet Union, as buyers on the world market will intensify pressure on oil prices, with potentially serious implica tions for U.S. foreign policy. Although production in non-OPEC countries will exceed present levels, largely due to higher Mexicl'ln output, most or all of the increase will go to meet higher demand in the producing (generally less-developed) countries. Major improvement in known oil supplies is much more likely to come from additional recovery in existing fields than from new discoveries; also, little likelihood is seen for discovery of huge oil fields, such as those in the Middle East, and the dominance of that region as an oil producer is not,expected to change. Another recent energy forecast, issued by Banker's Trust Company of New York {ENERGY INFO, November 19801 was considerably more soothing than was the OTA study. The Banker's Trust study, focused only on the 1980 1990 decade and examin ing the broad energy spectrum, not just oil, saw an improved energy outlook for the U.S. owing to an increase of more than 65% in coal production and a tripling of nuclear power, along with a 17% decrease in oil consumption. Also, the Banker's Trust study saw very substantial conser vation and fuel-conversion programs as contributing to a highly manageable energy scenario which essentially dovetails with the essence of the OTA findings. If his organization's projections prove correct, according to OTA Director Or. John H. Gibbons, the world will have to fuel its future economic growth without relying on the once seemingly limitless supply of oil. "It is this prospect," he noted, "that lies at the heart of the challenge to science and technology in the 1980's."
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PROGRAM DAiE SUBJECT The World This Morning STATION October 20, 1980 7:30 AM CITY Congress Iona I Study on US 01 I Production WTOP Radio MBS Network Washington, DC PETER MAER: A congressional study warns that U.S. oil production could drop by as much as three mil I Ion barrels a day from current levels by the year 2000. The Congressional Office of Technology says Increases In oil production are un-i ikely because oil exporters have little financial or pol ltlcal drive to boost output.
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PROGRAM The D a I I y Dr um STATION WHUR Rad Io DATE October 20, 1980 6:00 PM C:TY Wash I ngton, DC SUBJECT Future U.S. and World Oil Production MARGARET SOMERS: A congressional study has painted a gloomy picture of future U.S. and world oll production. The study, entitled "World Petroleum Availabll lty, 1980 To 2000," was prepared by Congress's Office of Technology Assessment, and shows That U.S. oi I producTlon could drop as low as tour m'II I Ion barrels a day by the turn of the century. According to the study, IT might be possible to boost world production by one-third In the 1990s. But It said Increases are uni lkely because Arab oll-exporTlng nations and Mexico have l!Ttle financial or pollTlcal fncenTlve to boost output. The United States currently produces 10.2 mil I Ion barrels of oil a day.
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PROGRAM News STATION WASH Radio DATE October 20, 1980 9:00 AM CllY Washington, DC SUBJECT 011 Study by Congress's Office of Technology Assessment MIKE CAVANAUGH: The future for domestic oil produc-. tlon In this country Is not good, at least according to a new congressional study which says the output from American oil wel Is could shrink to less than half what we are getting today by the year 2000. Right now, about 10 mil I Ion barrels are produced each day In the United States. But that study by Congress's Office of Technology Assessment says that could sink as low as four mil I Ion a day by the turn of the century.
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PROGRAM Monday Morning STATION WDVM-TV CBS Network DA[E October 20, 1980 1: 00 AM CITY Washington, DC SUBJECT Pessimistic Report on U.S. OIi Production RAY BRADY: In oll, a pessimistic report from the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment. The group says the conventional production of oll --that Is, using the normal methods for pumping oll to the surface --that kind of product! n wll I show little or no Increase over the next 20 years. The group also bel laves U.S. production of oll wll I drop from more than 10 mlll Ion barrels a day now to perhaps to as low as Just over seven mll lion barrels a day by 1985.
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Washington Post (Editorial Page) Wednesday, Oct. 22, 1980
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Christian Science Monitor Oct. 29, 1980 This article also appeared in: Greenwood (SC) Index-Journal Madison (IN) Weekly Herald Goshen (IN) News
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Bastrop (LA) Enterprise Dec. 5, 1980 ~ftilll' .... -~ .......... eaald'"l Jii ---the enel'IY crisis. ; ...,.._, battuftbele pnc ... 1 ;.:.-. .. -.rs fNn-mmen-mt u. bil campanies~ Such developments ,CGllld giw rise' to a: =::1 new aene,ation
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Rexburg (ID) Joumal Oct. 30, 1980 This editorial also appeared in: Gardner (MA) News Jacksonville (IL) Courier Elizabethtown (TN) Star Rome (NY) Sentinel Kennett (MO) Dunklin Democrat Norristown (PA) Times Herald El Dorado (KN) Times Reidsville (NC) Review Brunswick (GA) News Fort Morgan (CO) Times Sandusky (OH) Register Stillwater (MN) Gazette Cumberland (MD) Times
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Kansas City (MO) Times Nov. 11, 1980
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Fayetteville (NC) Observer Oct. 27, 1980
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The Daily Oklahoman Oct. 21, 1980 ~iftl1YliYAr9.~1WitFu:~d~~~,Af~"?;ni~--~~~:1 ,.19.~J;~,-~~~:; fo,:.,tTS~!Jl3'911~.~on~r:., :_,_ ~~~epttng-this, dismal. scf!naF.) ,! :tl0t.:2D~,-><\t.,:{l....;ic;'f,t,y,::,,,,.io for sake of11,rgumen.t,Jt is still ; ~, .. di'$l~:ih_. ~dy:.bem the<._' posaibI~; to. disagree witlt the ba,.; ,; ~, bri~r..~t~~~gressional: :sie ~t of repo~: a~q _the ; ~ce"ot.Technology Assess .. conclusio~,.dra~: from .it-by :: ~mc1t ~Jtsi_pessinilsti concluReli~ :Mortts:-u~~l~ ~Ad%.~ ,,siona wil,lJ:i?l1p~ the: averages ch~n:; of 0TA's congression-'. i~~~;.~;:;i~1i--:,)~ 1J:w!~-~;\,~;;Ji~~;~.i ;au~flt.~dcl'itoitoutp1.ti.rilllt~~:~~1d'."-on1~:t4e :Pmt(!(f'siates 1 JJr.br.' tlle:encl_ of .. the century, -:-'takes immf!diate action, we will ~1~~st'Jmble~t:.~i_il1-re:1l~bl1t}}t th~-ye~~ :Iartr.~--%,~~~~5;)~::.~~:i!ii~:~;:~;~:t t:!,) ) ~:-f~~.t~oarrels.a'daf,..;. anti-oil, liberals that increased ; ,)'.~itUialt ~~:1_.0-mjllio~;;.i)ar, efficiency and conservation iep--::~rre_llt l~~/~.::tr:~:;-. .::-:);7':i,:.:_ -~'.resent-!~the only wa-y'''..to,eope -~ OTA~s ~~ment is,plausibleWith the sitQatfon.'. :,. :_. >~,'cl :/If you accept the study's ~veraJ ... :.Baloney! Get the federal gfM .; ~. e-i1t<~at bo .. t~-QPEC. :: ernm .. ent _o. ut ofthe oil in. dustry's : : ,~~'.c1.t.111:1ni.es..;;..wtth:o;..: hafr:,,:let a: tr:u1Y free mar_ket op-. -'. .. tile largest: reserves will "have'-~ erate. and-we1l find more new : ,little jncentive to boost proqucot1 plus recovering more from: ::,:: don beyond progrimmed: sched-: existing w'1ls through second-1 {lllff:~'Another--is the rising de-' ary and tertiary .recovery' tee~ : f~_tnnit of'l1l!,I'd World <:ountrles. ~ology~ . .. : -_; ,{ :Bot.thee most oaunous factor is And if in20 years this nation. :' :\orJ/s:: ar~ent, -supported by can11ot make mcljor progress in ;/:,..._ reeent---estimates-of.-. out, coal, sbale.aad tar sands conver;rice pressure would be the gy problem is not physical but .. obvi*us result if the Soviet bloc political.. :';, ... ., :, ...... _.. "<'. .:
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Des Moines (IA) Register Oct. 27, 1980
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.~ .. .~,. .:--~,.,.-~ .. =--~.,... .. "_) ;t~-, _-.: Editorials .... : -/, ~-./1 111:bPEC ,sb~fotriic? Tampa (FL) Tribune Oct.23, 1980
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Sunday Capital-Journal (Topeka, KN) Oct. 23, 1980
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Savannah (GA) Morning News Nov. 17, 1980
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Watertown (NY) Daily Times Dec. 4, 1980 .. ~:1;~ :f~Pt .'.i.i'~"..,'l~'"'.""d.c:;;o:c10.?~11~"11~~-k-"--.:.'."lll.,.~-..,_ ....... '111. t-:~t;~?~~~'.rWorl -11 ~u oo -~:>#:~, -~ f k iatest:"projectiqns bn f1I. --. simJs will determjne howiucb oil -~ fureworld supplies of oil, a report Js produce in the en.rgy sourc;~s~i:.including:_our -1990s, .substantial increases a~_. abundant coal0resources~~::;-,. ;::, ;1, extremely unlikely._ because' the iccordmt'iJ/fue study/ th~' nations.~apable of con~b_uting to will-, probaQlY: _be-little or no 1n..:-: such an_mcre~seh~v:e no financial c~ in conventional oil produc.;; or political ~cent1ve to-_do so and tio!t worldwide over tbe: next 20-. because a number-. of _practi~al 1 : wbileAmeriqn production_ .. probl~m~ woul~_arise._ if. a signifi; ~-wil!-slip from lts-c~ 10.2 inil-'_ cant. incre,_ ~,.P~~i~o~:-~!~ __ :. lion barrels a day .. to petween 7.2:~ attemptecL. : "::: .. .-,,::. ~,:. "'l,~, mitlioli and8.;S.milllon barrels.five .:: American oil"procluction wm : from ,1~ow, and eventually, ; qeclirie as wells are depleted. No drop toaboul-lmillion to-7milllon : giant new Americap oil.fields;,are; barrels. aday by :the year-2000.,._ apt to be cf1SCovered:. _The major Those losses could bcf made up: OPEC producers like Saudi Araonfy from _uunconvent~onal'!: bia annot:. spend the money they such as oil shale' and syn-are earning as fast as .it' comes in; ; tbetic: _oil from : ~.-ur study so their incentive is to keep oil in < -said;..,;{, ;-; .. ::: ::: ; ::~-:;?}:l..~',f: : ,;,, : the ground~ not' pump extra sup: .. ___ .-: .-.., .-: : -:-.,, -. ,-,_ ... '"'' ': ,. plies into the world market The nte report recognized that its -.. if:awnates. are, more: pessimistic._ United Sta~es. meanwhile-,.. has i{ ;~ t.lJajl those of. some .gtherprojee- vast ~rves of COalr Developing -<,, Uo~bUtmaintained that geologi.. is where we sh~tu,d, be put.:-j aIUtizltati and llti al dee ting our money .:: -~c: ... L..:: ..,~--~~-' ,_. ~?.? .... ,~ ... ,.,, ,i-:~ ~""*''>~~~-
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Anniston (AL) Star Nov. 9, 1980
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Daytona Beach (FL) News Oct. 30, 1980
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Cost Effectiveness of Medical Technology
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Should health analysts put a value on human life--expressed in monetary or other terms-in order to decide which form of health care is most efficient in saving lives? Should preventive health programs such as immunization or water fluoridation prove themselves cost-effective in terms of health care saved? Should government agencies consider whether a particular procedure, such as heart transplant, is too costly in terms of years of life saved, compared with other procedures? These are samples of the questions surrounding and _.voked by the fast-emerging techniques of "cost-effectiveness" or "cost-benefit" analysis. According to a recent report by the Congressional Office. of Technology Assessment, these methods of comparing ways to use resources are seen by many health policy professionals as a "significant aid" in the attempt to hold down soaring costs and to. put money where it is most effective. OTA notes that health care literature shows rising attention to cost-effectiveness and that health economics are becoming a part of medical school curricula. "The potential of CEA/C BA to con tribute significantly to cost-containment and improved resource allocation seems to be an article of faith to many officials and health policy experts," comments OTA. WHAT IS CEA/CBA? What exactly are the techniques? By the definitions used by OTA, cost-benefit analysis is a process of converting the cost-and on the other hand, the benefits--into dollar figures,, so the two can be compared. In what OTA calls a simplified illustration, an emergency medical system's cost might be compared with the numbers of lives it might save, which would "somehow be valued in dollars." Cost-effectiveness analysis is different in that benefits are not Report to Congress OTA Looks at Nation's Health October 1980 Cost-Effectiveness -----__,,__. -. ... from page 1 expressed in dollar terms, but in years of life saved, or sickness or disability avoided, or other such measures. The final figure states how much money it will take to save a year of live or make some other unit of accomplishment, using the technology being evaluated. A health system that cost $100,000 and would be expected to save two years of life would have a cost of $50,000 per year of life saved. Obviously human beings have always made commonsense judgements about the most effective ways of doing things. But according to OT A, formulized ~ost-effectiveness assessments, in any area of life, have taken place mostly in this century. Interest by the US government was spurred when Defense Secretary Robert McNamara began to apply such techniques to the military during the Kennedy Administration. The recent rapid growth in health care expenditures engendered interest in applying these assessment to the health field. OF VALUE TO HEALTII? But where do they now stand in the health field, and are they truly valid? OTA found that despite the abundance of discussion, methods for doing CEA/CBA are in an immature stage, that there is a lack of data with which to carry out the analyses, and in actuality, there are "relatively few sound applications of CEA/CBA in health resource decision-making." OT A states, "There are, however, increasing numbers of studies being perfo~med, particularly in the applied research field, and the results of these studies are increasingly being disseminated. Although itis difficult to know how much effect this type of information has, there is ample evidence that both the private and public health sectors are increasingly cost-conscious." OT A explored the ideas that reimbursement mtchanisms such as Medicare and Blue Cross/Blue Shield may use more efficiency-based methods in deciding what procedures to cover; Professional Standards Review Organizations might look at efficiency in setting standards of medical care; that health planning agencies may use the techniques in deciding what he al th projects should be certified; and that the Food and Drug Administration has already listened to discussion considering risk-versus-benefit in decisions on whether to take substances off the market. OT A also raised the spectre of a future day when there will be an _overall "budget" for health care: "This is mentioned only as a possibility. Perhaps in the future, health care expenditures may be limited ( or constrained) to a fixed orspecific percentage of gross national product, or to some specified absolute amount of dollars. If this situation ever comes about, or even as an increasing number of individual institutions and programs operate' under budget constraints, the appropriateness of CEA/CBA may increase." The report warned that although some of the problems with these analyses may be solved as the systems mature, there are some
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'----.. OTA Report: Methods Are Lacking for Cost-Analysis problems that are inherent to the methods. For instance, the logical point to analyze a technology is before it is widely diffused, but it is difficult to tell at that point how useful the technology will be. Further, it will be very difficult to use the methods routinely for public decisions since they will likely be too complex and costly. Ennes CONSIDERATIONS What about ethics in such a seemingly cold weighing of human life and health? The OT A report states, ... one common argument is that the use of CEA/CBA may often be unethical if it does not take values and distributional issues into account adequately. But there also seems to be validity to the argument that not considering cost and benefits in decisions on society's resources, espedally in areas so basic as health, is unethical..." From another perspective, however, some health advocates find that this type of thinking may be a threat to prevention and humane social programs. For instance, OTA states that although its discussion is confined to health care, it could apply to environment and other areas. In that vein, current court cases are now leading to discussion of whet her regulators of the workplace must prove that standards for exposure to chemicals will save lives and are worth the cost of applying the standards. However, it may be impossible to prove that a certain number of workers exposed to a chemical will die until, in 30 years perhaps, they do actually die. Dennis Barbour, Director of Prevention Policy of the American College of Preventive Medicine, pointed out that it may be that some preventive measures --for instance, vaccines for elderly people --prove to be not cost-effective in terms of health care dollars saved. Other observers. have noted that it may not be "cost-effective" for society to protect the profoundly mentally retarded. In this regard, the OT A report does set down as one of the basic principles of using CEA/CBA the requirement that the "private perspective" be taken into account: "For instance, the social benefits of elective procedures such as elective hysterectomy, cancer screening and many psychotherapy programs are apt to differ markedly with private benefits." OT A's major assessment of the analyses is that they may be helpful if used as only one aspect of health decision-making. The process, says OTA, "gives structure to the problem, allows an open consideration of all relevant effects of a decision, and forces explicit treatment of key assumptions." The report warns, however, that the bottom-line, cost-benefit ratio, provided by these analyses can obscure aspects that are important. It states: "Such a bottom-line, however, often hides many important value judgements, thus providing a seemingly unambiguous answer that may rest on ambiguous data or assumptions." One technique that might move the analyses away from the over-emphasized bottom-line is a simple listing or arraying of all the aspects that are included in a decision. In this way, says OTA, "Whenever one or more important non-quantifiable variables would be otherwise left out or relegated to a footnote, however, no effort to arrive at a single combined benefit value would be made." A summary of the OT A report, with a listing of the background reports, is available from: Publishing Office, OTA, U.S. Congress, Washington, DC 20510. The full report is on sale for $6.50 from: US Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402. The title is "'fhe Implications of Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Medical Technology." Stock No. 052-003-00766-7.
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Dl:'ug & Cosmetic Industry (New York, NY) October 1980 COST BENEFIT LOSES ONE Cost-benefit analysis and cost-effectiveness analy ses should not be primary determinants of any deci sion concerning health care, concludes th~ttice of Technology Assessment after a two-year study re~by"SenatorTedKennedy, chairman of the Senate Health Subcommittee. The OTA conclusion included market approval of new drugs in its study, noting that in using these determinants "FDA might be extending its role beyond the scope of responsibili ties Congress intended the agency to have. FDA's primary purpose is to protect the public from unsafe and Ineffective drugs and medical devices, as well as unsafe cosmetics, foods and food additives. Thus far, Congress has not asked FDA to regulate the choice of safe and effective products based on economic crite ria during the market approval process." The report continues in this vein: "If a new drug or medical device were not approved for marketing because its cost-effectiveness did not compare favora bly with already approved products, then the new product might never be fully evaluated, particularly In the treatment of medical problems other than the ones studied initially." The value of propanolol in treatment of angina, migraine and hypertension, anti biotics for acne, amantadine for Parkinsonism, and phenytoin in treatment of certain cardiac arrythmias are cited, as well as delayed onset adverse drug reactions. The report also points out that a costeffectiveness analysis would require "extensive re sources, substantial time, and creative application of existing data, both for FDA and the manufacturer."
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Medical Products Salesm&n (Northf,ield lL} October 1980 Hill Panel Cautious On Role Of Costs In Health Regulations ---WASHINGTON Should cost ef fectiveness-and cost benefit be integral parts of government regulatory and legislative decision-making in the health care field? Especially regard ing medical technology? "It is unrealistic to expect that CEAICBE (cost effectiveness analy, sis/cost benefit analysis) in itself, would be an effective tool for reduc ing or controlling overall expenditures for medical care," said the Of fice of Technology Assessment in-its recently released report." However, it added, ''.decision-mak ing could be improved by the process of identifying and considering all the relevant costs and benefits of a deci sion. At present, using the approach or process of CEA/CBA ... may qe more helpful than the rigid and for mal application of CEA/CBA study re sults in health care program deci sions." OT A, the scientific research arm of Congress, conducted a study at the re quest of the Senate Committees on Labor and Human Resources, and on Finance, two panels that had heard much testimony advocating CEA/CBA as a possible means of making the medical care system more efficient in areas such as reimbursement cover age decisions in Medicare. The report carries a cautious tone spelling out the dangers and possibl~ value in instituting CEAICBA. In most areas, the OTA urges conservative use of the still somewhat controversial analysis techniques and methodolo~ie~. The report's advice to Congress 1s hsted under a variety of options. Among them: Market approval for devices and drugs. The report notes that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) deci sion criteria "explicitly do not include costs." A modification of existing laws could require FDA to formally compare the safety, efficacy and costs of a new product with those same characteristics of existing technol ogies. "S~ch an effort would require an ~xtens1ve amount of data, much of which does not currently exist. The analytical capabilities of FDA would ha~e to expand and change markedly to mcorporate the new criterion. The administrative and analytical demands of this option would be enor mous. "Most importantly, the decision of ""'.hether to select this option would hmge on current congressional intent regarding market approval," the report continues. "Past intent as re~ected in the statutes explicitly men t10ns only safety and effectiveness. Approving this option would mean th~t !he intent of Congress regarding FDA s regulatory function has changed. If such is not the case the option is inadvisable. if intent' has c~anged, then the feasibility of the op tion depends on the minimization of the administrative and methodologi cal problems." Medicare reimbursement. Should consideration of a technology's cost effectiveness be considered in reimbursement decisions. To date, says OTA, costs have "not been an explicit consideration." The option's desira bility, says OTA, depends on several factors: Philosophical. Choosing this op t!on would signal a change in the ra tionale of Medicare, which aims to make medical services available to the el~erly. "If, under this option, cost effectiveness criteria are applied to all technologies, the aged and the disabled might be denied reimbursement for technologies still available to other insured populations." Procedural. Local contractors might have to refer a great many cove_rage questions to HCFA for resolu tion, an~ HCFA would have to rely on the Pubhc Health Service for a large volume analysis, OTA says. Moreover the data needed for decisions would not be available for many, maybe m?st, te~hnologies, and the costs en tatl~d here would have to be weighed agam~t potential savings. However, there is no way to estimate confident ly/ either the probability or the am?unt of Medicare cost savings which might result. Neve~theless, says the report, con sideration mi~ht be given to requiring t~at the possible addition of major high-expense technologies or inexpen sive but high volume technologies to Medicare be carefully assessed and th~ir potential impact on the total health budget be analyzed. Tradeoffs between increases in Medicare ex penses and increases in Medicaid benefits or PHS program could then be considered." Copies of the complete document ca11 l: i! obtained from Superintendent of ~cuments, (>vernment Printing Of~1ce, Washington, D.C., 20402. Pnce: $6.50. Stock number 052-00300765-7. Copies of a_ 27-page summary pamphlet are available from Publications Office, OTA, U.S. Congress, Washing ton, D.C., 20510. No charge. O
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Periodontal
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Washington Post Oct. 25, 1980 Hill Study Hails Promising, Cheaper Way to Treat Gwn Disorders By Victor Cohn Wulllnl*OB Poll ~f wrttar A cong?e8'1ional study has given good marks to a cheaper, nonsurgical method of treating the gum disorders that cause millions of persons to lose their t.eeth every year. The method several antibact.erial measures by the dentist and careful dai ly gum and tooth cleansing by the pa tient can replace painful, expensive gum surgeey in most cases, it,s-advocat.es say. If this indeed proves to be the case, the method could often substitut.e $125 to $~00 worth of treatment by any trained dentist for $800 to $2,000 worth of gum surgery. In short, it might virtually idle many periodontal (gum) surgeons. And this could happen at a time when many dental societies are saying that dentist.& in general are lesa busy. Apparently, flu oridation of waw supplies and t.ooth past.es have cut the incidence of trou blesome tooth decay, at the same time that dental schools have been increasing the supply of denasta. The nonsurgical method seems to have worked so far in moat of 190 pa tients treat.ed by 18 Washington-area dentists, according to a study by Congr(,, Office of j'-!hnologr~~e~H-_~!'-, work. I call it monitored and modulated the patient is taught ro combine daily therapy." tooth-brushing. and gum cleaning with This means an analysis first to see daily use of an electric irrigator. The what bact:eria are doing to the troubled cleaning includes applying a paste of gums and the teeth, then therapy modsome of humankind's oldest remedies ified according to the way the patient baking soda. peroxide and (some responds. times) salt -to attack bacteria and The treatment st.arts with scrutiny shrink swollen gums. of the way bacteria have attacked the Periodically, the dentist checks on gums, UBUally eat.ablisbmg themselves the bacteria with the microscope. About in pocketa beneath the gum line. The half the patients aJso need a few weeks 81188Sllment is made in part through a on an antibiotic. And after this treat microacope to observe the bact.erial colment, as after gum surgery, the patient onies. must continue the daily cleansing per-The dentist cleans and scaJea the manently or the bacteria will return. teeth and planes or smootbes some The Washington dentists, say Rovin tooth roots. Most important, however, and Scheffler, treated 190 patients. AI-"Clearly, we need a lot more study, but the results in the Washington area look promising," Dr. Sheldon Rovin of the Uruversity of Pennsylvania dental school said yest.erday. Rovin conducted the
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Similar articles also appeared in: Trenton (NJ) Sunday Times Miami (FL) Herald York (PA) Dispatch Houston (TX) Chronicle Phoenix (AZ) Republic Las Vegas (NV) Review-Journal Seattle (WA) Daily Times San Jose (CA) Mercury-News Sacramento (CA) Bee San Antonio (TX) Express & News Huntsville (AL) Times Cleveland (OH) Plain Dealer Atlanta (GA) Constitution Kansas City (MO) Times
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The Economist (London, England) Nov. 29, 1980 Do you want to keep your teeth? One of the scourges of modern man is gum disease. It is not lethal, to be sme. But it can cause your teeth to drop out. To date, the only remedy in bad cases has been gum surgery-a procedure that in the United States costs at least $8001.,000 if the whole mouth needs atten tion. Now a simple self-care regimen has been pronounced a promising alterna tive by Americ:a's congressional office of technology assessment. All you need is self-discipline and, at most, $170. Gum disease (variously known as per iodontal disease, pyorrhea or pcriodon titis) is caused by bacteria that lurk in the spaces between teeth and gums, building up plaque. So the name of the game is to get rid of the existing plaque and then to prevent fresh build-ups. (If you think you arc plaque-free, ask your dentist for a stain that adheres to and shows up plaque; chances are you will get a nasty shock.) Step number one is a trip to the dentist to get existing plaque scaled off. That done, the regimen developed by Dr Paul Keyes at the National Institute of Dental Research in the United States begins. The recommended equipment includes a robber-tipped "applicator" (in effect, a rounded toothpick), an electric toothbrush and something called a pulsed-water irrigator. This equipment is used to apply (and rinse out) a homely and inexpensive brew of baking soda, salt and the common bleach, hydrogen peroxide. Once a day, every day. The salt shrinks the gums, exposing pockets normally difficult to reach for cleaning. The soda shrivels the bugs while hydrogen peroxide introduces oxygen into the mouth which the offending bacteria find PQisonous. With luck and conscientious persistence, this combina tion will do the trick-although people with an entrenched infection may also have to take an antibiotic (tetracycline) for a couple of weeks. The study that impressed the congres sional assessors was based on the exper ience of 18 dentists working with 190 patients who they would normally have passed on to gum surgeons. Dr Keyes himself has treated about 75 people, with initially severe gum disease, for at least five years at his institute (and larger numbers for shorter periods), monitor ing their therapy by examining scrapings from their mouths with a microscope attached to a television screen. Most of those whose mouths were not already in a hopeless state have kept all ( or nearly all) 9f their teeth. The regimen is not fun. Neither is surgery-even assuming it is successful, which is not always the case. Neither is living with false teeth-even assuming they fit. Take your choice.
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Monterey (CA) Peninsula Herald Oct. 27, 1980 .NeW Gum Disease Treatment Tried By Mlcllael ~oodl -~ Beruuct- Writer .WASHINGTON -An inexpensive, non-surgical treatment for the gum di-, seases responsible for massive tooth loss in millions of Americans over age, 30 has shown "pro~ing" results dur ing early testing by dentists, a new government study says. The new technique makes use of some of mankind's oldest home remedies for tooth problems--baking soda, table salt, and pydrogen perox ide, as well as some of the most re cent-electric tooth brushes and dental irrigating devices such as the Water Pilt. Although so new that its effective ness has not been proven, the technique is atttacting more and more attention as an alternative to unpleasant and cos tly surgical treatment of gum or peri odontal disease. The technique was developed by Dr. Paul H. Keyes and bis associates at the National Institute of Dental Research. Keyes is a well-known figure in the history of dentistry. Years ago, he helped to establish what dentists long had suspected: That bacteria cause tooth decay. Keyes' technique for treating periodontal disease was evaluated by con gressional Offic.e of Technology Assess. ment .. (OTA). The study was conducted by Dr. Sheldon Rovin, chairman of den tal care systems at the University of Pennsylvania school of dentistry, and Richard Scheffler, an economist at George Washington Uruversity. Periodontal disease includes a number of afflictions of the 1UJDS and other structures which support the teeth. The two most prevalent periodontal diseases are gingivitis, an easily reversible inflammation of the gums, and a more-serious condition, periodontitis. In periodontitis, bacteria-filled pockets form beneath the gum line, causing in flammation and destruction of gums, other soft tissue supporting the teeth, and_ even underlying bone. The prime symptoms. of periodontal disease include gums that bleed easily, foul breath, and loose teeth. Indeed, gum diseases are responsbile for more tooth loss than decay and all other den-tal diseases combined. Current treatment for periodontal di sease includes surgical procedures that remove irritating deposits from be neath the gums, smooth the root sur faces, eliminate pockets of bacterial growth, and help the gums reattach to the teeth. The OTA study makes pointed reference to a fact relatively unappreciated by laymen: There is no conclusive scientific evidence.that persons who have periodontal surgery keep their natural teeth longer than those who don't. The 'long-term studies crucial to estab1 Ushing the value of peridontal surgery never were conducted, OTA says. "Until such scientific studies are carried out, objective measurements of surgical effectiveness will have to be tentative at best," the new study notes. The Keyes technique still is in the very early stages of clinical testing. The first data come from only 190 patients who were treated by 18 Washington-area dentists for an average of 14 months. The treatment has resulted in some "dramatic" improvements in key indicators of oral health. At the start of treatment, for example, 99 per cent of the patients bad gums that bled upon probing. After treatment, the figure fell to 34 per cent. The percentage of patients with loose teeth fell from 65 to 9. Before treatment 98 per cent had X-ray evidence of bone loss. The figure fell to 'J.7 per cent after treatment. "These data indicate a significant overall improvement in dental health for our study population,'' OT A concluded. Since the aver;age charge for the Keyes treatment is about. $120 per patient, proof of .its long-term effec tiveness could substantially decrease the cost of peridontal
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Winston-Salem (NC) Journal Nov. 2, 1980 Washingt_on Notebook ,. GUDl Treatment 'Promi~ing' ... .. ...................... WASHINGTON A simple salt~g sada regimen shows promise for treating gum disease as an alternative to the expensive ordeal of surgery, a new congressional report says. The QUk.r._,gL,;ted!J'NWIA, ..Au!"~-while reaching no conclusion. gave a cautious boost last week to the controversial work of Paul H. Keyes, a National Institutes of Health dentisl The congressional research report says that more study is needed but nevertheless calls the alternative treatment promising especially since, it says, gum surgery bas not been proven effective, either. Keyes' method does not please periodontists wbo trim back gums inflamed by disease. He contends that such surgery is unnecessary if patients simply keep their gums free of tbe bacteria that cause the deterioration. The report says that 90 percent of adults have some form of the aiJment, though not all are so serious ~require treatment. -A similar article also appeared in: Richmond (VA) Times-Dispatch
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Dental Economics (Tulsa, OK) December 1980
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Psychotherapy
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MA (American Psychological Association) Monitor December 1980 OT A report says 'hard facts' possible on psychotherapy by Donald Foltz With assistance from a noted panel of authorities in the field, a small research advisory arm of Congress has released an 18month study of psychotherapy intended to convince lawmakers that there is already some evi dence of its effectiveness and that with greater emphasis on cost analysis studies, the field should be able to demonstrate effects and benefits of the prac tice more convincingly in the future. A 93-page background report on psychotherapy released in October by the Office of Tech nology Assessment came at a time. however, when congres sionat"aeoateover the question of psychotherapy's usefulness was chilled by the like! ihood that. legislators probably would not act this year on any meas ures to expand coverage of men tal health care services under Medicare. Nevertheless, OT A's report does suggest that more research in in1:ntal'.:"hcalth"'carefocused on cost effectiveness and cost benefit considerations--an area it -says.: is. the least developed among the research strategies -used on ]'SYChotherapy research to date-could give policymak ers the .. hard facts" they could use to justify expanded mental health insurance benefits and service programs. OTA's review of psychother apy was included in a half-mil lion-dollar study of 18 other health and medical care tech nologies at the request of the Senate Finance Committee two years back when key health sub committee members warmed to the notion that the mental health care field should be able to dem onstrate the safety and effective ness of their services in order to qualify for expanded coverage under Medicare. The psychotherapy study, "Background-raper #3:---rhe Efficacy and Cost Effectiveness of Psychotherapy, .. is among the first of the series or cost effec tiveness reports being released this year and early next year. according to OT A plans. And it is the first_ OT .I\ study in_tc:, rhe area of mental health. Those connected. with OT A's study project mafntain;how ever. that the effort is nofpointed at demonstrating psycho therapy's elfectiCness, but is aimed at providing a basic un derstanding of the research considerations unique to the field. The mes5'1ge OTA's report is conveying to policymakers is that while psychotherapy can and has been shown effective in some instances, more data is needed on t.,e conditions under which therapy works and which aspects of mental health treat ment can be linked with improved health outcomes. The director of the OTA's study on psychotherapy, Boston University social psychologist and evaluation research special ist Leonard Sa.u, figures that the finished repon lays ground for a "logical next step .. -more research. "One of the things we were trying to do -was to deal with the reaction of some people that psychotl'n:rapy is not a tech nology," says Saxe. speaking to both lay persons and his col leagues in research. While sci entists in behavioral aod men tai health research have been often. frustrllted bv sometimes populai::. political ~otioy,.s that oi-ychotherapy should be studied as the Food and Drug Ad ministration studies pills. Saxe indicates that some researchers are equally convinced that the Continued on page 6
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Psychotherapy report Continued from page 1 practice is a process of such complicated components and imprecise variables that it can aever be systematically eval uated. OTA's primary mission in the study was to explore the promise of cost benefit and cost effectiveness analvsis techniQues in psychotherapy research: with the notion that some results down the road could be comprehensible-and useful-to pol icy planners. Saxe. in hand with a paaeJ of advisers that included Morris Parlotf, chief of psychotherapy studies at the National Institute of Mental Health, Vanderbilt researcher Haas Strupp and psychiatrist. Donald Klein. di rector of research at the New York Stare Psychiatric Institute, agreed that there were four are:is central to a basic understand ing of the questions involved: a definition of the process and its complexity. some explanation of the degree to which p5ychother apy can be scientifically ana lyzed: evidence on the record of efficacy: and a presentation of the use of cost effective and cost benefit analytic methods (CBA/CEA) in psychotherapy assessment. Also on the panel were Jer ome Frank. emeritus professor of psychiatry at Johns Hopkins: Gary VandenBos. national pol icy studies director at the Amer ican Psychological Association: Beverly Long, president of the National -Mental Health Asso ciation, and Boston University economist Thomas McGuire. In its effort to depict the .. sci entific basis" for-psychotherapy. the OT A study points out to legislators that "psychotherapies are not distinguishable solely by their .-theoretical bases. In ad dition to the view -Of psycho pathology adopted by the ther apist." says the study, patient variables and treatment settings affect the nature and outcome of treatment. OT A points out of course that past research has explored these facets, which the report indicates has made a qualified case in psychotherapy's favor. But cost data from avail able studies have provided little direction for new policymaking in mental health. according to OT A findings. Some past research referred to in the study was cited for a prirruiry focus-on cost consider ations. including one of the first and few available studies com paring cost effectiveness be tween different professional ther apists. Psychologist Bertram Karon and OTA panel adviser Gary VandenBos studied the treatment of schizophrenics and found that _psychologists were the cheaper care alternative to psychiatrists in these cases when the cost of drugs. hospitalization and repeat inpatient care were considered. But OT A says that most research focusing on cost involved comparisons between treatment settings. In one such study cited by OT A. there was evidence that in one state hos pital the cost of intensive ther apy was about 50 percent less than the expense involved with custodial care. Another study. comparing some600 patients with varying degrees of impair ment, found that cost-lo-benefit ratios were the. most favorable in cases involving less impaired patients, and less intensive ther-
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apy. The implications of that study, says OT A. may suggest that with more severely im paired patients who are more difficult to treat. resources might be better directed to outpatient care. In another study cited by OT A. "parent therapists" with some minimal training and su pervision were shown to cut in half the cost of care for dis turbed children, when compared to the cost of residential care. But some scientists say that cost analysis research encombles the difficulty in an already complicated area of research. "The criteria problem in the field of economics is even more complicated or certainly no less so than in the field of psycho therapy," says NIMH's Parloff. There are concerns that cost based research in mental health may focus most attention on shorter-term therapies where outcomes and benefits are more easily trac:ked. Parloff said that already researchers have become discouraged studying longer term psychodynamic: strategies "I don 't think this econometric model applies to human functioning and I am hesitant to buy into it. passes philosophical considera tions outside the bounds of pure science. And much of the dis agreement among the OTA panelists centered around the application of cost effectiveness and c:ost benefit techniques to the psychotherapy process. Economists define cost effective ness methods as requiring that a c:ost be placed on the amount of resources going into treat ment. while c:ost benefit meas. ures require that a value be placed on both the cost of treat ment and the assumed benefit of care. While in ~neral some say c:ost methods may provide the hard evidence that state and federal governments are looking for in. apportioning health dol lars. others insist that the intro duction of economic: variabl~ to the problem of studying treat ment and outcome factors douwhere assumed benefits suc:h as "reconstruction of the ego" are nearly impossible to measure; Jet alone put a price tag on, he in dicated. In fact, the OT A study con cedes that because of the dif ficulties of measuring psycho ther:ipy 's benefits, "the literature is probably biased toward assessing low-cost treatment. Parloff's concerns are stated more adamantly by Klein, who says that c:ost factors oaiy add another "fuzzy" layer to th: logistics of efficacy research. Calling the OTA report .. tenta tive" overall, Klein says, "I don't think it puts us anywhere closer to an answer.". Klein's critics say he and psy chiatry are content in the comer of psychopharmacology. but others agree that it is an impos ing task for researchers to place a price on "improved quality of life" or the absence of mental illness itself. Vanderbilt's Strupp warns that perhaps questions surround ing cost benefits and effective ness in mental health treatment beg for social and political answers. not scientific ones, and he takes a purist's notion of be havioral research. "I don't think this econometric: model applies to human functioning, and I am hesitant to buy into it." OT A's report documents sev eral reservatwns for cost methods in behavioral research, but raises one possibility for measuring psychotherapy in terms of c:ost benefits with data that may be somewhat more easily generated now the amount of money a client is willing to pay for services. But Klein and others say there are lingering questions over a patient's inc:li.nation or capacity to make a reasoned cost-conscious choice of services. when in acute need of care, especially w}_ten that care c:omes at the expense of third-party insurance payment. And, according to re searchers, there are fundamental problems at pr.csent with sing ling out the effects that can be directly associated with amelio rative c:are. But Klein and Par1otf's c:oncems are qualified. and they don't oppose at least s.>me-ex ploration into cost-based re search. One psychologist who thinks it can be managed is Frederick Newman, a contract consultant to the OT A studv from the Eastern Pennsylvari'ia Psychiat ric: Institute. Newman reports seeing cost effectiveness analysis methods already in place ia a number of setd.ap. He is con sulting with some 20 state. and community mental health sys-
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-------------------------terns on various cost as~essment study projects. How well are they doing? Newmnn admits, by ~Irie! aca demic standards, cost elTeclive ness "is in its embryo stages." But he ~ees growing interesl :itnottt ~late and tocnl health adtttirii!;lralors. OT A's study concedes that CEA/CBA methods arc pres eiJlly lnadequMe for measuring the more psychosocial aspects of behavlotnl and mental health treatment. But It also points out that cost analysis methods in research can, hi tact, bring sci ence to bear on important social questlohS that transcend the palleni/ practlttoher relationship. ''.In _an lmpothlrU sense, the de fenders of the techniques are correct whei;, they nrgue that policy decisions in health care ~re. being ttrnclc daily on shaky grounds anyway,'' nccording 10 the report. "CllA (cost benefit analysi11) is at least an nttcmpt, however imperfect, to ground those decisions on real needs and real pcissibllitlcs." Present methodological limitations aside, the report says that cost analysis "aives ~tri.lcture lo a problem, allows an open consideration of all relevant elfect8 of a decision. and forces the expUcU lreatmeni of key assumptions." i, APA policy ~ludieil director I Gary VamlenBos deCencls the use or cost methods as a forcc rul approach to conrronling many or rite human and social issue~ thal are inherently swept up in lhe health policy ancl plan ning process. ''Right now, we're not pulling tho~e values on the tahle," he says. : And VandenBos is an Implicit sui,110rler of Newman's il1ink ing that more llllcntion to cost nnnlysi!'I in research ,~ likely w force some answers lo lonu slanding professional dilferenc~s in the ncld. Whether the menial henllh re search field is O:ble to bring it self lo some consensus on a re sca~ch design tor efficacy io convince legislators, health 11dmlnis1tnlots and insurers thal there ate some answers, PnrlolT and others renlain convinced that the expense. or such sludy will he enormous; And OT A Cll perts arc split civer the extent to which the government should he Involved. Advisers to the OT A report were cautiously di vided on the S~nalc propo11al for a $20 million federally-ap pointed commission on efficacy i:,taclng the profes~ions and government side by side to answer questiotts that hove not been asked extensively or other health care technologie!I. Indications at present suggest P4t# !,JH M W.U.W:U,4.;0A AC Wt 1$ .4.CW 4JU4WR$WA. WWW "It uJould 1we111 ll1ut iue possess the scientific tools to <1mwss psycliot/1e1apy (lnd lo 11tw tliis i11fo1,ation in 11uding policy
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Nation's Health De~ember 1980 OTA Says Can' Be Cost Effective ls psy.;:hotherapy wor:h the cost? Should it be paid f..,; by ~overnment programs and other :nswers i."l the saoe way other medical care is? A study recently released by the Congressional Office of Te::hnology Assessr.ient s.:ys that despite the complexity involved in the many versions of psychother.apy, it is possible to conduct scientific studies of its effectiveness and that literature over the last 30 years pro,ides evidence that under ''specified conditions," psychotherapy is effective. The OT A was asked to study the issue because of concern in ,.. so:enHi1: mrvrmauor: !.C pre~-'= wh1::~ i:-t:4,:,:ment! are s;?:e an~ effective. OTA co:::.;:ludes. ..;11.,.,~ :.lie evidence's net ~ntireiy .::onvincing. the :urrently availaoii: literature contains a number of good quality :esearch stuu.i~~ which find pc.,sitive o:.1tco:nes for psychotherapy. The:e are also a large number of ,t..idies wr.ich report positiYe ~ffocts. but whose methods or ge..'leralizaoiliry are difficult to assess. The OT A address is the Congres~ of the United States. Office oi Technology Assessmer.:. Washi'l!!t.:-.n. DC :os i ,).
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Nebraska Medical Journal October 1980 W aslJi11gtoN oJes /'-I 1..11'' ,:-< I,. -:,_"-,")'rf..__;.f. \ 1~--~ -"f ,. r-l,1 I "-'\,..,tld .Ji' 1 PSRO. \ The Professional Standards Review Organi zation (PSRO) program for Medicare Medicaid should be allowed to develop to its full potential, the AMA has told Congress. The medical profession has accepted PSRO as a quality assurance program. "Therefore, we feel that it is inappropriate to evaluate the program solely based on a measure of dollars and cents." Alan Nelson, M.D., a member of the AMA Board of Trustees, told the House Ways and Means subcommittee on Health that the PSRO program is a successful example of cooperation between the medical profession and the federal government. Some 167,000 physicians are participating, Dr. Nelson noted. One of the problems with PSRO since its inception in 1972 has been the tendency of administrations, Democratic and Republican, to eye the program as one strictly designed to save money. There have been crisis points in rf"cent years when PSRO was believed to be in jeopardy because of high-level belief that it was costing more than it was saving. Dr. Nelson pointed out to the subcommittee that the PSRO law declares it is designed to "promote the effective, efficient and eco nomical delivery of health care services of proper quality." There have been numerous analyses in recent years of the cost-effectiveness of PSRO. The two most recent, by the Health Care Financing Administration (HCF A) and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), used the same data base but reached opposite con clusions. The CBO said PSRO's were not cost effective. HCF A said that in fiscal year 1978 they saved $21 million. "Because of this divergence in interpreting the PSRO program data and the fact that PSRO effectiveness should be reviewed by means other than just cost-effectiveness, the AMA views such single directional analysis as impractical," said Dr. Nelson. The matter is especially critical now, he added, because the Health and Human Services (HHS) Depart-ment has started to terminate PSROs that it deems to be "poorly performing and cost ineffective." It is premature to attempt to measure the cost-effectiveness of the PSRO program, Dr. Nelson said; adding that "the PSRO program has been consistently underfunded, with some PSRO's not even receiving all of the funds necessary to properly design and subsequently implement the sophisticated review and data collection operations essential to conduct a proper review program. Until the program becomes fully operational, it is a mistake to attempt to ascertain its cost-effectiveness." The AMA witness also urged Congress to guarantee the confidentiality of PSRO in formation. "The effectiveness of the PSRO program is inextricably linked to its ability to preserve the confidentiality of patient, phy sician, and hospital profiles." The AMA also recommended a provision that would subject services performed by or in federally-operated health care institutions to PSRO review and to provide for a more effective administration of the program. The AMA-developed amendments to the PSRO law were recommended. Community mental health. Congress this year is nearing final action on a major extension and expansion of the community mental health center program. The House recently approved a four-year extension authorizing federal aid of $7 8 million next fiscal year, climbing to $200 million by 1984. The states would play a greater role than at present. The Senate has passed a more generous measure. A controversial patients bill of rights pro vision was deleted in the Senate bill. The House measure did not contain such a provision. The bill, approved 277 -15, involves the states more fully in the planning and provision of community mental health services in hopes of attracting more state funding. October 1980 Nebraska Medical Journal 287
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care, the Congr~ssionaLOffice .of...:r'e~~!!O~?P,_ Assessment (OTA) has conceded. An OTA repo'rt fiari.lily discussing shortcomings as well as strengths of economic standards for health care came as something of a relief to the health professions, since the OTA and a federal agency (the National Center for_ He~th_ ~are Technology) have been viewed with llllsgivmgs by the medical profession. The fear has been that strictly economic judgments could be used to discourage valuable technological and other medical methods, such as CAT scanners~ An OT A report on the implications of cost effectiveness of medical technology says the results of CEA and CBA studies "should not be the primary determinants of any decision concerning health care." Contrary to some expectations, the report adds, the use of CEA/CBA, by itself, "will not be an effective tool for reducing or controlling overall expenditures for medical care." However, the OT A asserts that the process of explicitly analyzing costs and benefits "can lead to better decisions in health care, and interest in the use of CEA/CBA is likely to increase substantially." Senator Edward Kennedy (D,Ma.), chair man of the Senate Human Resources Sub committee on Health, said "limitations on resources require that the benefits of medical technologies be weighed against the costs." He said the report "underscores my belief that the simplistic use of cost-effectiveness analysis will not resolve many of our basic dilemmas in health care delivery." Cost Benefit Analysis involves expressing both costs and benefits in dollars, resulting in a net plus or minus dollar figure or in a numerical ratio. Cost Effectiveness Analysis differs in that costs are expressed in dollars but effectiveness is measured in non-monetary units such as lives-saved or life-years-gained. Both CEA and CBA are designed to integrate the economic aiicf health aspects of decisions. The nation's health care bill. The nation last year spent an estimated $212.2 billion for health care, 12.5 percent above 1978, the government has reported. The 1979 health spending amounted to an estimated $943 per person, of that amount, $406, or 43 percent, represented public spending. The latest comprehensive health spending estimates were compiled by the Health Care Financing Administration (HCF A) and show that outlays by Medicare and Medicaid amounted to $29.3 billion and $21.7 billion respectively, combining to pay for 27 percent of all personal health care in the nation. Benefits for hospital care alone amounted to $29. 7 billion for both programs. Highlights: **Expenditures for health care included $54.4 billion in premiums to private health in surance, $60.9 billion in federal payments and $30.5 billion in state and local govern ment funds. **The $85.3 billion bill for hospital. care represented 40 percent of total health care spending in 1979. These expenditures in creased 12.5 percent over 1978. **Spending for physician services increased 13.4 percent to $40.6 billion 19 percent of all health care spending. ** All third parties combined private health insurers, governments, philanthropic and industry financed 68 percent of the $188.6 billion in personal health care in 1979, ranging from 92 percent of hospital care services to 64 percent of physicians' services and 39 percent of the remainder. **Direct payments by consumers reached $60 billion in 1979. This represented 32 percent of all personal health care expenses. Defense & induction examinations. The Defense Department is confident it can handle physical exams in case of a draft without having to seek the aid of civilian physicians. The number of military and recently-retired military physicians are more than adequate to handle the job, a spokesman said. The recently retired group (about 300) are subject to call-up in event of a national emergency. Draft physicals would be carried out in 67 Anned Forces Examining and Entrance sta-October 1980 Nebraska Medical Journal 289
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American Medical News (Chicago, IL) Nov. 14. 1980 WASHINGTON'S WEEII By Ted Lewis Influencing care !any physiciahs are concerned about the accretion of judg ments and authority over strictly aedical matters in Washington, D.C. Outfits such as the National Center for Health Care Technology, the ,. ~' '.~' ,\ \l~ Congressional Office of-Technology Assessment, and the Graduate !edical Education National Advisory Coaaittee (G!ERAC) pose a potential for influencing the conduct of medicine in ways that many physicians might not agree with. G!EHAC recently issued a comprehensive report on the health manpower outlook that predicted surpluses o~ physicians and recommended cutbacks in aedieal school enrollment. considerable controversy has been stirred not only by the report but by an effort to make G!ERAC a permanent statutory bo~y. The presence of a federal and a congressional .center for assessing the merits of health care technology, equipment, and methods, has caused worry over whether their recommendations will be translated into federal decisions that could crimp the use of treatments or discourage innovation. At the Health and Human Services Dept., officials are drawing up regulations that will spell out what constitutes "reasonable and necessary" medical services that can be reimbursed by !edicare and !edicaid. One of the criteria would be the social, ethical, and general ec-onom.ic impact of extending !edicare coverage. The effort followed an BBS decision not to ~eimburse !edicare patients for heart transplants. BBS has refused to open this important process up for professional debate. The CongressionalOffice of Technology AsseF-sment (OTA) recently issued a report which conclud~-.;;hat "psychotherapy is a complex --yet scientifically assessable --set of technologies." It also finds good evidence of psychotherapys positive e~fects. While the conclusion came as some relief topsychotherapists, it also made them wonder whether they should be vulnerable to the report of a congressional advisory panel. The OTA report to the Senate Finance health subcommittee followed introduction of a bill last summer by Sen. Spark !at sunaga (D, Hawaii) to establish a presidential commission to determine which mental health services are safe, effective, and appropriate as factors in federal reimbursement policy.
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People in the psychotherapy field have made great progress over the past decade in extension of insurance coverage for treatment of mental illness, but the providers are conscious ot the fact that when economy. and cost-benefit talk. abound, psychotherapy is one of the first targets for savings. The Blue cross-Blue Shield high option plan for federal employes, for example, has cut back outpatient psychotherapy benefits starting the first of the year,. in part to make room _tor dental benefits. The Blues coverage was the best in the nation, resulting in the Washington area having the highest percentage of psychiatrists in the country. The Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Admin istration is conducting its own survey of treatment and reimbursement policies :f'or psychotherapy where Sla3 billion is spent annually tor the services of 2q,ooo psychiatrists, 2b,ODO clinical psychologists, 31,000 mental health social workers, laO,ODD psychiatric nurses, and 1.0,000 counselors, plus numerous unlicensed people. l recent 11Rew York Times" article on psychotherapy said, 11Soon, the federal government may slow the yeasty activity in psychotherapy with a. strict national health insurance policy that would spell out which practitioners could be reimbursed tor which specific treatments." The Congressional OTA, aware ofthe sensitivity of its mandate, has been circumspect to date. The first report last summer questioned whether eco nomic cost-benefit analyses could be relied upon to/ a great degree.in assessing medical treatments. 2 AMERICAN MEDICAL NEWS NOVEMBER 14, 1980 I
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Biomass
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Greenville (TN) Sun Dec. 9, 1980 ----------------------- Gasohol's Future In The U.S. May Be. Decided By Battle Of The Studies By DavtdF. Salisbury The<.'1lrlsdan Science Monitor News Service Denver Can gasohol play a key role in weaning the United States from dependence on Mideast oil? It depends on whose study youreaci. For several years a lively debate bas raged over the virtues or vices of gasohol, the mixture of one part. alcohol to nitie parts gasoline. rt is one of a number of half-technical and half-ideological fire flgbts that have broken. out in the course of the "Great E~ Polley War" declared following the Arab oil embargo of 19'/3, which continues unabated today. The gasohol flap is instructive because it clearly illustrates a number of difficulties besetting us attempts to arrive at a sensible and coherent energy policy. Perhaps the mast serious of these stem from the fact that energy has become a statistical battleground. Repeatedly in the area of energy, where facts-tend to be limited and the complexity. great, the conc:lusions of many technical studies proceed from the basic assumptions that the analyst chooees~AJld assumptions; often aa not; are rooted in ideology rathertban objective fact. Take the case of gasohol. The controversial analya have centered around the question of whether more energy, particularly petroleum, would be consumed in the production of alcohol than -would be saved by using it as a fuel or as chemical feedstock. From "the beginning, the gasohol debate bas been primarily. political. Support for the idea bas centend in the !lgricuJtural community. Farmers, particularly in the corn. belt, have seen alcohol fuel as a way. to become more energy independent and as a new market for their products. Resistance to the idea has tended to center in the oil and automotive communities. One group of experts, some with oil company ties, have published reports conc:luding that it takes mote fossil fuel to produce alcohol tban is saved by bu.rnmg the alcohol produced. A:t the same time, other experts, often ~tb agricuJturaJ affiliations, .11ave published equally detailed studies that arrive at the opposite conclusion. The result bas been considerable uneertainty among policymakers. As a gaaoho! brief prepared by the national Conference of State Leglslatures coneludes: "It appears that ad ditional resea~h will be necessary before gasohol is widely used." This conclusion wu picked up as ammunition by the opponents of gasohol. It wu severely criticized-by gasohol's proponents. The result wu a spate of more detailed studies. For instance an analysis done by two University of Nebraska scientists, W. ~er and & Mohr, was entitled "Gasoline does, too; mix with alcohol." It came up with a favorable energy ratio. They achieved this by ~tracting the energy in the crop residue from. the total energy mput -an assumption justified only if the crop residue were burned to produce energy, Two Mobil Oil Corporation scientists, however, came to. the opposite conclusion. Using current techno!o; they said, gasohol wu a net energy lmer. Going even further, they argued that even if It could be produced at a net energy gain it would be extremely expensive, costing more than $5 a gallon. Buried in the Mobil analysis were two !Dlportant assumptions. They used energy consumption figures for existing, inefficient distilleries rather tban the more-efficient units on the drawing boards. They also slipped in the assumption that gasohol mileage was 2.7 percent less than that of unleack,d gasoline. Meanwhile, Nebraska scientists were conducting a driving test which that shQwed that gasohol gets 7 percent better mileage than gasoline. The approach used irithis road test has been criticized not only by gasohol opponents but by the. congressional Office of ,m Assessment. It tums out that energy balance are quite sensitive to mileage assumptions. If gasohol Is. uaigned a higher mileage, its energy balance relative to gasoline is easily positive. With a significantly lower mileage, the balance turns negative. With equal mileage; the calculation can go either way. Lab experiments have tended. to show a lower mileage for guohol than for gasoline. Many driving tests have suggested a higher mileage but are considered less reliable. As the debate ____ ...., matured. some experts began questioning just bow im~nt tbe net energy question wu to begin with. Finally, some scientists began analyzing the various analyses. In the first such assessment, a group of University of Illinois researchers concJuded that the results of past studies were ''s~ dependent on assumptions about use of crop residues and the miles-per-gallon rating of gasohol. In terms of total nonrenewable energy, gasohol is close to the energy brealt-even point. On the other band, in irms of petroleum or petroleum~tutable energy, gasohol is an UDJmhiguous energy producer Still the controversy continues, almost with a life of its own. Last January a Louisiana State University scientists concluded that the production of alcohol from sugar cane could be either a net energy producer or consumer depending on whether crop residues or fossil fuels were used for the industrial processing. Last month the DOE issued a report done by TRW researchers that they hop&will put an ell!,i to the net energy debate. They looked at the pr~on of alcohol from corn, sorghum, and municipal wastes; With process. heat being supplied by coal, residual oil, ; natural g~, residues, and electricity; and, assuming that; P~ mileage 1s 4 percent less, equal to, and 4 percent better i than ilnleaded gasoline. I For an efficiently designed alcohol plant located in Illinois they f find a small_ net energy gain in all cases and "impressive" I petroleum gam. -----
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Atlanta (GA) Constitutiofi Oct. 10, 1980 til.lt.ernate Fuels Hold Out ... ... I "Hope But Require Work . .r..,~.,; -.. By Steve Jolmsoa cause an Increase in prices for non-energy Consllluttall 51111 Wl'lrer wood. pEOducts. :: Alternate-fuels are the wild cards or the For wood use-to hiereue significantly ~ergy deck, unconventional fuel ~ources reliable small-scale gasifiers will be needed -WIIOSlfJIOtentials are unpredictable. convert wood cbips to a gaseous product suit-Some, such as wood, alcohol fuels and able for use in industrial and commercial boil-small-scale solar-energy system,, are work-ers. Several prototypes of such:equipmeat are able at present. but must be adopted by already on the market. numerous businesses, industries and homeown-, Alcolaol faels: At the grassroots level, ers before they can have a significant impact probably no other energy sourcJ has such en-the. U.S. ei,ergy supply. ~usiastic supporters as does gasolloL Farmers Otliers; like fusion power or solar photo-m part1cular have rallied to the mixture of voltaic cells, depend on further technological one alcobol with nine parta gasoline as a. deelopment which may or may not be forthway. to mcrease the market for their crops and coming before they can be commercially comto provide a secure fuel source; petitive. But the initial flush of enthusiasm is now .All have been belped toward commercial ~ing tempered with a strong dose. Qf realism. feasibility by the dramatic: lnerease in oil As more and. more large compaaies enter the prices. during the past year and a half.. but field, many small operations are diseovering each still faces its own partic:ulu problems. they. are unable to compete. The following is a brief overview of each: Entrepreneurs promoting unwortable or Weod: When the Georgia state energy of. inefficient: disti:lleey equipment have soured Hee announced recently that it would fund .. some potential mvestors, wbile the long-range studies on the feasiblllt:y of using wood to fuel effect on food prices of using crops for energy industrial. boilers, over 100 compailies re-remains unclear. sponded, including. some of the largest in the The OTA report -recommended that Constate. gress. review its gasohol -incentive programs When the 14 studies were completed, alwhen. distillery capacity reaches 2 billion galmost all showed that an initial expenditure of Ions per year; At that level, "competition be-between $400,000 and $600,000 needed to. con-tw~ food and energy uses for American vert to wood would be repaid in less than two gr~. harvests could. begin to drive up grain years ..,. and even faster if the price of oil or pnces." natural gas Increases, according to energy of~uch a conflict. can be avoided, the report fice director Mark Zweeker. said, ~--farmersprove. willl.ng to s,vitch er.ops Higher oilprices have boosted progress in and bnng new cropland iDto production. developing biomass wood, alcohol and other Over the long term. methyl alcohol from fuels from plants five years abead of sched coal and wood will be cheaper than ethyl a1co,. ule. a federal Energy Department official told hol from crops, the OTA study concluded, but attendees at an International biomass conferdue to big.b ~il prices, there will be a demand ence in Atlanta last spring. for all alcohol fuels. In one of the most detailed-studies of the Solar: In the first four years of the Carter field thus-far,. the.U.S, Qtf~of Te&lology Administration, government funding for all Assessment stated in a-report issued in' Julyi types of solar energy increased dramatically, that by the' year 2000. 20 percent of U.S. debut that support has primarily had a negative mand for energy could be met by biomass, effect, according to some solar experts. with the overwbelmiDg majority. coming from "The government's efforts to create a wood. solar industry have done more to limit a solar Researchers at Georgia Tech have esti-industry than any other factor," ac:cording to mated that as much as 2S percent-of Geor.gia's Paul W. Cronin, a former congressman who is energy needs could be supplied from wood, the newly elected president of the Solar since tbe state is already one of the.nation's E~ergy Ind~ MSOC!ation, the trade associ leading wood producers: ation representing. the natioits solar energy The OT A studyalso pointed out that hatequipment manufacturers and retailers. vesting and' processing wood would stimulate .Cronin's major complaint is. that while growth in rurar areas. But the report cauPresident Carter.~ set ~dmirable goals for tioned that at a certain level, competition to solar energy Congress has passed broad get wood for. energy other uses could -. '( Condaaed 0a Page llA
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--------Alteritatives------f r Continued' From Page .0-A t. I legislation to reach thc;e goals, the federal bli teaucracy has not folloved soil So-called "passive" solar, In which a house is designed to take maximum advantage of sunlight, is prbviilg to be Increasingly popular with the nation's architects and homebuild "We've had lncmpetent demonstration ers. Within the next five years, passive solar days. Adding storage batteries to every house. hold Increases the cost significantly; another option, selling the power to electric utilities and buying it back at night, faces difficulties because ulilitles generally don't need the power during the day when It Is available .. programs, a. constantll changing solar policy, homes could begin entering the .market. at a delays in Issuing regultions, and a failure to rate of 800,000 per year, according to a study complete the supportpromised. to Industry," .. commissioned by the Energy Department. said SEIA spokeswomia Priscilla Brown_ 'But some market for photovoltaics seems Photovoltalcs: Photovoltaic, or solar I assured, perhaps Initially In developing nations Jn addition, pric, controls on domestl-cells are one of the most intriguing of the where electricity is expensive and few transcally produced natura gas at prese~t the possible energy sources. The Idea of mounting mission lines exist. Once demand starts to most popular fuel fo home and hot water a bank of the cells which convert sunlight grow, manufacturers can build automated heating have keptprlces low, dampening ., Into electricity -on the roof ot a house and assembly lines, and prices should drop as a re-solar energy's appeal. then disconnecting all the utility connections Ii suit. . Intriguing to any homt!owner. But not all is glomy In the solar energy . Several oil companies which have bought Industry. In the Nort!?ast, higher prices for But researchers say It will still be several Into the photovoltaic Industry are putting a I lists and r1:5earch laboratories. For example, a magneUc field must be created which can control hot hydrogen gas that has been heated to a temperature l 0;000 times that at the surface of the sun. There are still some scientists who contend that a workable fusion reactor cannot be built, but mosi researchers in the field believe the task is "doable." Test machines have al ready shown .that "ignition temperature" can be achieved, although for only a few moments at present. Fusion could be an almbst limitless energy source at a relatively stable cost. The fuel used Is a variety of hydrogen, the most common element on earth. heating oil the prnary sourc! of heat Iii y~ars before they know whether such a possl substantial amount ot '.'risk" money l1_1to cell the winter In that r~iop h.ate begun U> \ btllt.y Is commercially feasible. Cells are avail-. development, Taylor said. The Energy Depart-. Proponents argue that fusion power umboost sales, according.o Cronin. Several slate t able al present which would produce eleca ment Is confident Itcan reduce prices to its mately would be safer than current nuclear governments h.ave paS!d tax credits and other. trlc!tY at a cost or about $6 per peak wall, but 1985 g~al ,of 70 cents. per peak watt, a_nd : reactors, producing less radioactive waste and incentives for the purcase of solar equipment. addmg the mo~ntlng apparatus, wiring and newer. cells still In the laboratory promise causing less damage in the event of an accl-, ,, ; .. DC-to-AC converter would boost costs to aboQl, .. even lower cost$, . dent. The California Pullc:JJUUly Commlss1ont, $20 per peak wat, ace(lrdlng to Roger Taylor( .... . : has ordered utilities & that state to install .. project managet for. the Electftc, Power. lte' / ll'usloll: Sol!r. enthusl~sts talk of harness-: \. But fusion generating plants would be solar collectors on 30,000 homes. over the search lnstilllte'r photovoltaic program. : Ing the sub for en~rgy; fusion backers want to .massive, expensive llem~. One design 'cur next three years! whn the ,:ennessee. Valley ... In. comparion, the cohstrucUon cost of build thelt ow~ llun right here on earth, dupll-rently envisioned would produce 3,000 megaAuthority bas lmtlatl!t; a similar. but. tmaller coal-fired and tm;lear power plants curn!ntly tatlng ~e process by wh!ch hydrogen. atoms falls of power at a cost of $5 bitron. program. Is running at abdtl fl per peak watt. are fused together, cre3-bng helium and the. 1 I . ; .. prodlgtous energy of the sun and other stars. Community-basedpro-solar groups havfl .. There are ,~er .~robleltis as welt Cells.. .. .. ... ".' There Is still much more research and sprung up around thelation, offering classes i;roduce energ1, _test when sunlight .ts stro~g0 '. ; Sue~ a fromethlan task requires en,1velopment work to be done before the first on the construction olsolar greenhouses and est. and some imlhod must be found Lo store neerlng technH\Ues which strain the capabdmmercial fusion reactor is built. Scientists simple but low-cost sotr coll~~rs. that t!nergy for re at night or on tvercast .. lUes of the,nabon's most accomplished sclen-diet that could occur in the late 1990!1.
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Auburn (NY) Citizen Oct. 30, 1980 NewreJ)ort backs use of gasohol WASHINGTON rude oil for .alcohol by considering a when it is made under few variations of a base case certain conditions: in which coal is used as a Ethan~l. when added to distilling fuel'in a plant using gasoline in a ratio of one part an efficient new technology to nine, makes the fuel called proposed in 1978: gasohol, which has become The study also assumed enormously popular in-farm the ethanol distillery, was belt states .. operating in Illinois. where it "This report should lay to could use locally grown corn rest the ill-founded criticism and locally mined coal. that producing ethanol fi:om The country's largest fuel .biomass consumes more en-alcohol distillery until. ergy than it produces," said recently had been operating Sen. Birch Bayh, D-Ine.; on natural gas. not coal. chairman of the commission Congress' Office of that promotes use of ~l~lsY..Allll~iifhas gasohot warnea that production Critics of massive public levels of 2 billion gallons of subsidies and tax ~reaks -alcohpl could begin putting accordedgasohol often pressure on food prices as charge that alcohol produc-food and fuel compete for tion actually consumes more corn supplies. energy than the end product .i;:iut Bayh's group has diyields as a motor fuel. sputed that, saying food TheTWR study totaled all prices would be unaffected the energy inputs involved in even at much greater levels fuel-grade alcohol making, of production. inclUding fuel used in corn The interim national goal cultivation, harvesting and. is to have the country shipment as well as energy producing 500 million gallons consumed in the distillation of fuel-grade alcohol a year process and shipment of the by 1982-less than two days' ethanol prod.uct." : ., .. -~upply of gasoline at current : It found that _}he ethanol consumption rates. Similar articles also appeared in: Stillwater (MN) Gazette Parkersburg (W,VA) Sentinel Dallas (TX) Times Herald Ridgway (PA) Record Harrisburg (PA) News Danville (PA) News Kingsport (TN) Times-News Bucyrus (OH) Telegraph-Forum New Orleans (LA) Times-Picayune Kittanning (PA) Leader-Times Shelbyville (IL) Daily Union Eldorado (IL) Journal Chicago (IL) Daily Southtown Economist Memphis (TN) Commercial Appeal Miami (n) Herald Springfield (IL) State Journal Register Martinsburg (W.VA) Journal Sharon (PA) Herald
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Tampa (FL) Times Nov. 5, 1980 Of course it's worth trouble and energy t~W~J/&ek on the value of gasohol one part ethanol, nine parts gasoline should boost this means of stretching fuel supplies in the United States. The U.S. National Alcohol Fuels Commission recently released a con sultant's report which effectively puts to rest misleading claims that the pro duction of gasohol wastes more en ergy than it produces. The consultant, TRW of McLean, Va., found that a gallon of ethanol, or grain alcohol,.can actually save .83 gallon of crude oil when produced under certain conditions. A barrier to gasohol production has bee~rlkarning from the Congres sional Qf af ~.Chn.Q.I.QC.. that pro duction levels of two billion gallons of alcohol could begin putting pressure on food prices as food and fuel com. pete for com supplies. However, studies have disproved this contention. In fact, food prices would remain unaffected at even higher levels of production. The commission's national goal is to have the country producing 500 million gallons of fuel-grade alcohol per year by 1982. This is a demonstration that we can make substantial progress in reducing the national dependence on petroleum imports in the near future. Indeed, alternative fuels coupled with conservation, are already contributing to a current gasoline glut and stabilized prices. I r
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Christian Science Monitor Dec. 4, 1980 Gasohol's future in the US may be decided by the battle of the studies By David F. Salisbury Staff correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor Denver Can gasohol play a key role In weaning the United States from dependence on Mideast oil? U depends on whose study you read. For several years a lively debate has raged over the vir tues or vices or gasohol, the mixture of one part alcohol to nine parts gasoline. It Is one of a number of half-technical and half-ideological Ore fights that have broken out In the course of the "Great Energy Polley War" declared following the Arab oil em bargo of 1973-74. which continues unabated today. The gasohol flap is Instructive because It clearly illus trates a number of dlfrtcultles besetting US attempts to arThis conclusion was picked up as ammunition by the oppo nents of gasohol. It was severely criticized by gasohol's prof:'':nts. The result was a spate of more detailed studies. For : ~ce, an analysis done by two University of Nebraska :c en lsts. W. Scheller and B. Mohr, was entitled "Gasoline oes, too, mix with alcohol." It came up with a favorable :;ergy ratio. They achieved this by subtracting the energy In e crop residue from the total energy Input an assumption Justified only If the crop residue were burned to produce energy. '.! Two Mobil Otl Corporation scientists, however cme to the opposite conclusion. Using current technology th~y said gas~hol was a net energy loser. Going even furlh~r. they ar: gue that even tr It could be produced at a net energy gain It would be extremely expensive, costing more than $5 a gallon ti Buried In the Mobil analysis were two Important assump'. rive at a sensible and coherent energy policy .. Perhaps the most serious of these stem from the fact that energy has become a statistical battleground. Repeatedly In the area of energy. where facts tend to be limited and the complexity great, the conclusions of many technical studies proceed from the basic assumptions that the analyst chooses. And these assumptions, often as not, are rooted In Ideology rather than objective fact. Take the case of gasohol. The controversial analyses have centered around the question of whether more energy, par ticularly petroleum, would he consumed In the production of alcohol than would be saved by using It as a fuel or as chemi cal feedstock. From the beginning, the gasohol debate has been primar ily poUtlcal. Support for the Idea has centered In the agrlculMeanwhile, Nebraska scientists were conducting a driv ing test which that showed that gasohol gets 7 percent better mileage than gasoline. The approach used In this road test has been criticized pot only by gasohol opponents but by the congressional Orrt~e of Technology Assessment. It turns out that energy balance calculations are quite sensitive to mile age assumptions. If gasohol ls assigned a higher mileage, Its energy balance relative to gasoUne Is easily positive. With a slgntflcantly lower mileage, the balance turns negative. With equal mileage, the calculation can go either way. Lab experiments have tended to show a lower mileage ror gilsohol than for gasoline. Many driving tests have suggested a higher mileage but are considered less reliable. As the de bate matured, some experts begun questioning Just how im portant the net energy question was to begin with. ~fsi ~j used energy consumption figures Cor existing ln~h en lstlllerles rather than the more-errlclent unit~ on e rawbtg boards. They also slipped In the assumption that ggaso1 h 11 mileage was Z.7 percent less than that of unleaded aso ne. Finally. some scientists began analyzing the various anal yses. In the first such assessment, a group of University or llllnols researchers concluded that the results of past studies were "strongly dependent on assumptions about use or crop residues and the miles-per-gallon rating of gasohol. In terms of total nonrenewable energy. gasohol Is close to the energy break-even point. On the other hand. In terms or petroleum or petroleum-substitutable energy. gasohol Is an unambiguous energy producer. tural community. Farmers, particularly In lhe corn hell, have seen alcohol rue! as a way to become more energy inde pendent and as a new market for their products. Resistance to the Idea has tended to center In the oil and automotive communities. One group of experts, some with oil company ties, have published reports concluding that It takes more fossil fuel lo 11roduce alcohol than Is saved by burning the alcohol pro duced. At the same time, other experts, often with agricul tural affiliations, have published equally detailed studies that arrive at the opposite conclusion. The result has been considerable uncertainty among policymakers. As a gasohol brief prepared by the National Conference of State Legislatures concludes: "It appears that additional research will be necessary before gasohol Is widely used." Still the controversy conllnnes, almost wllh a !Uc of Its own. Last January a Louisiana Stale University scientists concluded that lhe producl.lon of alcohol from sugar cane could be either a nel energy producer or consumer depending on whether crop residues or fossil fuels were used for the Industrial processing. Last month the DOE Issued a report done by TllW researchers that Lhey hope will put an end to the net energy debate. They looked at the production of alcohol from corn. sorghum, and municipal wastes: with process heal being supplled by coal, residual oil, natural gas, crop residues, and electricity; and, assuming that gasohol mileage Is 4 pl:!rcent less, equal to, and 4 percent better than unleaded gasoline. For an efflclentiy designed alcohol plant located In Illinois they find a small net energy gain in all cases and an "Impressive" petroleum gain.
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Gas Industries (Woodland Hills, CA) October 1980 V SUPPLEMENTAL GAS .PROJECT~ Biomass Could Supply 10-20% of U.S. Energy The Congressional Office of Tec~~logy Assessment estimates that by tlie year-oromass could supply 10 to 20 percent of U.S. energy needs. The total could be up to 10 quadrillion (quads) Btu's from the wood and 1-6 quads from plant herbage ~eluding crop residues. For companson, 10 quads annually would displace the en ergy equivalent of 4.5 million barre1:1 per day of premium fuels such as oil and natural gas. The OTA report, requested by the Senate Committee on Commerce, Sci ence and Transportation, admits these figures are a "best case" approach based on favorable conditions. Numer ous major uncertainties are involved, such as trade-offs between environ mental effects, consumer prices, food production, farm income, and the costs and availability of alternate energy. Also required would be many regulatory revisions and extensive government coordination and support. OT A found that the most efficient processes for replacing oil with bio-en ergy are direct combustion and gasification for space heating and process steam heat. Of the two liquid fuels that can be produced from biomass -ethanol and methanol -ethanol would be best applied as an octane booster for gasoline rather than as a stand-alone fuel. Methanol, which is more difficult to mix with gasoline, would probably be better employed as a straight fuel. Biomass, moreover, would be competing with coal feedstock for many of the same markets. Comparing cost and potential values, OT A estimated that coal-based methanol (35 to 56 cents per gallon) would have significant eco nomic advantages over biomass meth anol (65 cents to $1.30 a gallon). This would indicate a much higher priority for commercial development of the coal-based liquid synfuel production.
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Coal Slurry
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Rails, not pipelihe~, sholl,ld carry the ci>al By Wllllam M OemPMY, president of the Auoclatlon of Afflfl'lcan Railroads, In fl'I CJ\rlstlan .Science Monitor because rail unit train-rates were lower; The other; still operating, moves coal at a rate substantially higher tbaD. It has. been clear for several years.. the rail rate for coal to San Antoniothat America's vast coal reserves hold. wbichfsone of tbe most contro,enial the promise of independence froin rail coal rates in the nation. foreign sources of energy. In fact. Thus; the pipeline push for eminent American steam coal seems destined to .domain legislation is nothing more than. fuel bdlers in much of the world. a~=-speclaMnterest legislatitlll. Tbfs baa been a welcome develop,nt., domain rights would glve-ment for the, railroad industry-and pipelliters the .ability to take land for those in the government 'who have regardless of the wishes of the owners. worried about the relatively weak: The certification required fer the finaDcial position of many railroads. exercille of such rights would make it Because railroads are the single moat very difficult for water:poor states to essential element in the nation's freight block the export, by pipeline, of billions. transportation system-and thus plaJ a of gallons of precious water each year. vital role In the Industrial economy Having failed to prove their basic national policy baa been aimed toward' gremises pipeline advocates now are reversing the downward: ffnan:ial saying. that legis.latio~ to reform spiral which bas sent some railroads.. regulation of the railro~ds so,nehow into bankruptcy and' created service provides a new reason dr government, problemsoo others. promotion of pipelines. THE, GROWTH. OF coal, a com-: SUCH A FORMlJLATION,, casts modity already carried in great Congress in the role of an old-time: quantities by rail and one well-suited to ''ward boss'~ dispensing favors~ the mode, bas been. seen as. a way to The intent of Congress in allow railroads to. i.Jnprove their ear-deregulation legislation was to i.Jnprove nings. without the need for massive the earnings of the railroad industrytnpayerezpendltures. because the public will benefit from the 'l'bis silver lining, however, has. been improvements: m. rail service which obscured by a cloud -In the form of better eamlngs can bring.. efforts. to secure government promotion: ... -. It wouldbe hardly logical-'for 4 of coalslwrypipelines. .., ... Congress having ~e this, to frustrate. A coal slurry pipeline ist a single-, its, own intent. by then passing commodity, bigb-vol:wne mode~ legislation to promote the development Whatever its backers may say, the coal of a redundant transportatio11 mode pipeline mode is not designed. to meet' with the potential to drain away bun-any national transportation need. dreds of millions of. dollars of railroad The well-used term "creamtraffic.; sldmmmg'' f.s apt in this connection. PIPELINE ADVOCATE! often point out that railroads would, even if a number of pipelines are. built, still Red Wing (MN) Republican Eagle Oct. 13, 1980 carry most coal tonnage. But the pipelines can only e&ITY the "cream'' the high-volume movement anaJogoua to unit train service-which railroads need to balance against the "skim milk" represented by less, This article also appeared in: profitable traffic that the common-canier obligation requires them to accept... . .. The pipeline push for eminent domain, legislation is based upon two false premise$: that railroads cannot keep pace with national coal. transportation demand and that pipelines cold deliver coal for electric power generation at rates below those of railroads The first premise has been soundly refuted by every independent study; including one done at thebehest of Congress by the Office of Teefmo~ Assessment. It is abundantly clear t ra1ttoad!'are ready, willing, and able to handle steadily growing coal traffic. THE SECOND PREMISE bu no basic except the assertions of pipeline promoters Only two coal sluny pipelines have ever operated in.:the United States.-One ... was shut down Kingsport (TN) Times News
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RLEA testifjes against coal slurrY"Pipeline bill A spokesman for the Railway Labor Executives' Association testified before the House Transportation .Subcommittee that passage of legislation giving codr"slurry pipeline promoters the right of eminent domain wiif divert traffic: from the railroads, resulting in the loss of as many as J 8,000 jobs. James R. Snyder, chairman of the RLEA's Legis lative Committee, told the Congressmen holdil!!,.,, hearings on H.R.4370 that a report issued by the ar. fic;s; of TechnQf.98Y Assessment iDdit'.3tes that iT"coar slurry pipelines are built, "from 1985 to the year 2000 some 12,000 to 18,000 railroad jobs would be lost, while some 12,800 individual employees would be unemployed." Snyder noted that proponents of H.R.4370 c:on Locomotive Engineer (Cleveland, OH) Sept. 12, 1980 tend that coal slurry pipelines will provide con structive competition for the ~lroads and the rates they charge for hauling coal. .. There is no basis in fact for that view," he testified. "First of all, not all mines and utility com panies will have access to pipelines, therefore there can be no competition between the two modes of transport. .. Secondly, the pipeline company would be very selective in its choice of customers and would have a virtual monopoly of coal traffic: with any utility which it contracts to serve ., The immediate result of such a monopoly hold on the most select coal transport, Snyder said, "would be severely adverse to the ability of the railroads to serve their non-coal as well as their coal shippers. .. The ultimate result," he said, "will be weaker railroads requiring f ederaJ funds to survive." Snyder noted that H.R.4370 differs from earlier coal slurry pipeline proposals in that it would es tablish an independent statutory authority in the Secretary of the Interior to grant rights-of-way over federal lands to coal pipelines. aud tu ilisiiC certifi cates of public convenience and necessity conferring eminent domain authority without the concurrence of either the Interstate Commerce Commission or the Department of Transportation .. We respectfuJly submit this departure from the design of earlier legislative proposals is destructive ofa cohesive national transportation policy," Snyder said .. The transportation of coal by rail or pipeline is transportation nonetheless and should be treated as such. Those agencies with the responsibility for im plementing our nation's transportation policy must have authoritative responsibility in the transportation of coal as well as other commodities. Snyder told the Subcommittee members that if pipelines are given the right of eminent domain, railroads will be placed at a severe disadvantage which will handicap their ability to compete. "The only way to avoid the destructive competition which would result from private coal slurry pipeline companies' use of eminent domain authority is to recognize now that pipelines do not off er needs of improved coal transportation," he said, "while at the same time they would undermine the financial stability and service availability of the nation's railroads. "We respectfully submit that that is too high a price to pay for an alternative system of trans portation that can produce no measurable im provement over what can be provided by the existing rail system," he said. .J.
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Wall Street Journal-Newspapers Oct. 13, 1980 -~"".:-~:--.~,:.',111::-:::~.?.~?\~,-t .... ,-~':"':'';7;~ ... ::;:. ~-...... t.; ,r;_::.~--~-~-::,_ .. ; ........ -~. -~ -;-',,,,--~;LL :C .; Thit Case Against Coal' Pipelines .. o~~. th~~acis-dis~wlth-been' airecL but. must-~ co~sidered questhe conclusion reached In the editorial tionable In light of. the fact that a scheme "Coal and the Rails." Sept. 15. involving the construction of treatment There has. never been any support for plants and miles of extra pipeline did not the theory that the introduction of. coal result in a dollar's worth of revision In the slurry pipelines would "foster further depipeliner's aiready: hazy cost estimates. A velopmene of coal reserves nor for the as-. pipeline moving 25 million tons of coal per sertlon that "the coal-hauling netwotk yeat would drain: away more than 6 billion IS being strained ..... Studies:done by anci: gallons of water A railroad can move a ~for the. Office of Technology Assessment llke amount with no special water require-and'. the-..Department of Transportatio11; ment have. concluded that the railroads can e~ Railroad regulation ls aimed at the furily keep pace with]ncreases in demand for:. therance of a national policy that railroads coal: tra:nsportnton:. Nearly-.20%.niore' c~. should be reVitallzed in the public interest moved by raJl iJt 19'19 than in 1978-witll no: r--because the public has a. vital $take in a. ~ Coal.loadings:. have. bee11 consis~-: healthy rail system-and. was supported tently higher. this;. year .than In 1979-with editorially_ by the Journal. Where Is the '. no stran. Thus.the supelimposition-of a' logic in passing-legislation to improve rail newtransportat1011 mode can do-nothing to. earnings and' following up with legislation spur coal pi:oductiou; and use.-A pipeJine--is _;.which will. have~ the ultimate result of a transportation: mode,-:. not-a, product1Qndraining away at least $700 million !n earn mode. ::-,_, : _. :_ < -;, ': ~~,,c;. -; .. ";~: _.-. Jngs?. figu~ is higher than total rail .. ... While.it ls;true that a pipeline can use-, ~ting: mcome In all but two of the la.st cantaminateo water; the plans of most~:. 14 years.. . elude the use of high-quality potable water; .. A. pipeline-will not drive down the mar SChemes for Ul!ing treated sewage-have gjna1. cost. of new coal and energy by ,, .. ,,_.,.,._, .,,_ .. ,, .. ... ~ ~-"''.,._, ., .. ,; .i-''providing.needed. rate competition.'.' The -only competition. will come in the bidding for new: contracts. Once a contract is signed. pipelines will have-what they have won low-cost, high-volume traffic -and railroads will have what' is left, which will -because railroads are true common car riets-Include much traffic that is less de sirable. The railroad response-based on a need to surviv_..., wiil be to raise. rates on all traffic th_atpipelines do not win. The re-. suit Will be. liigher average costs-for coal and for a wide .range of other(rail-carrted commodities : : . -~ There is no' -eyidence' to suggest that pipelines-,really canmove coal at rates lower than rail rates. The. only pipeline currently operating. moves coal. at a rate substantially higher than the controversial .~rail ra,te for,coal to San Antonio. WILLIAM H. DEMPSEY President Association of American Railroads-. Washin~n ..;..,,I
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Oil Shale
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Provo (UT) Herald Nov. 24, 1980 Shale-Oil Workers .. Protectjon Urged DENVER (UPI) Workers at shale-oil opera-things to worry about, just getting the commercial tions on the Western Slope must be protected from operati0m1 going. It's going to be imperative for: the poten*1al health hazards, includmg skin cancer and government and society to !Jlake sure these guys do lung disease, a federal study bas warned. it cleanly." The study, recently submitted to the congresRom said the current state of knowledge about sional OWcaof.!.eebnoloa,~t,_ listed the the bai.ards of. oil shale might compare to the possible hazards as fibrogenic dusts and poisonous asbestos industry in 1910 "when some ~ses gases in the mines, cancer-causing compounds in were first seen and nobody paid any attention." the shale retorts, t.ozic substances in the process--But Merril Coomes, environmental health ing operations ,and "the.. everpreseot danger of life--.. manager for Los Angeles-based Topsco Corp., one threatening accidents-.'' of the pioneering oil-shale firms in Colorado, said -or: William N. Rom of the University of Utah in"we know, more about the chemical composition of Salt Lake City and head of the Rocky Mountain shale oil than we do about petroleum. : ; Center for Occupational and Environntental Health Coomes said some of the most toxic comJ>C?UJJd!I was. the principal researcher In the federal study. present in oil-shale reports also are ftlund i-n od His report concluded the hazards could be refi'neries, where .they are createdin highminimized with proper controls. -temperature cracking processes; "We know we've got hazardous, toxic substances "~e Industry has learned how to handle those _(in oil shale)," Romsiid in a recent interview. materialUafely,"C-oomessaid. "Becausewework"The real challenge. for the industry,is to develop with them every day-, we take it for granted. It's no the technology to control these hazards. big deal. 11 He said refinery workers routinely take "I don.'t think the industry is going to do it volun-precautions to protect themselves from exposure to tarily," he said. "They've got too many other hazardous chemicals. .. ..:...-This article also appeared in: Alamosa (CO) Valley Courier
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Denver (CO) Post Dec. 7, 1980 Oil shale industry spends millions to reduce mining health risks To The Denver Post: !:--; i-'t'/ YOUR FRONT page article in tJ:ie Sun day, Nov. 23 edition of. The. P.ost entitled. ''Federal Report. Oil-Shale Work Poses Health Hazards," demands attention not only because the_ headline is misleaq.ing but because of the biased quotes and statments c9ntained therein. The real thrust of the article was more ac curately reflected by the follow-up headline on page 83, Section E. which stated; ''Results Vary in Oil-Shale Effects on Health; The fact .is that the results of the study discussed in your article do not deserve anywhere near: the attention you attributed by implication from the placement and substance of the front~page headline. The following will illustrate this point: H_aving 1?een involved-~ studies of the pot~ual enVU'onmental and health impacts. of oil shale development for the last six years, and having spent nearly $10 million of my company's money in the proces,s, I resent the quote, attributed to Dr: William N. Rom, "It's going to be imperative for the govern ment and society to ma.Ice sure these guys (m~g the. industry) do. it cleanly:" Lnerally dozens of studies are presently ~eing conducted. on these issues by private industry and private trade organizations at their expense, and by the' Department of Energy l!,Ild EPA, such as the DOE .. s toxicology program. Dr. Rom compared. the oil shale industry to the asbestos industry and is quoted as say ing .... diseases were first seen and nobody paid any attention.'.' I vigorously disagree first with the insinuaiion that ''disease" is prevalent among oil shale workers. and secondly that nobody pays attention to po tential health risks. Let me quote from the June 1980 ,Office o( Technology Assessment publication entitled. "An Assessment of Oil Shale Technologies," -The. report mentions that studies of. occupa tional diseases among oil shale miners in the Untied States have been limited for lack of subjects; the oil shale industry being in its infancy in the United States. therefore inter esting but ... more intriguing than convinc ing ... results of studies done on Estonian miners were discussed. These studies do de scribe occurrences of lung diseases among Estonian workers, but the report qualifies these Estonian studies as follows~ "Because Estonian industrial hygiene standards are not known, the Estonian studies can only suggest an association between oil shale mining and lung disease .. 1 The report goes on t9 caution against the unfounded comparison of Estonian and ~ottish oil shale industry with U.S. opera tions: ''. the interpretation of these results (studies on Anvil Points workers) is compli cated by the fact that most of the oil shale miners had previously worked in uranium vanadium ~es .... An examination by (NIOSH). failed to reveal any association be tween oil-shale exposure and respiratory disease." The data-~s not bear out the charge that ~il shale IDJ:1Ung presents a high degree of nsk. Some nsks are, of course., inherent with any sort of mining._ These are well recognized and_are addressed 111 any modem mining op eration. Perhaps the most disturbing aspect of the Denver Post headline and article is the implic~tion that r~ardless of the small degree of nsk present in the oil shale industry or any other business. it is not worth taking. desp!tt the tremendous potential benefits. The:,t benefits include eventually requcing the billions of dollars the United States spends on foreign oil ($ 130 billion projected for 1981 ). the boost to the United States .and local economies and the improved balance ol trade and balance of paymen~s. It s~e.ms th~t the media are increa,;ingly espousing a philosophy (through the ur'sti fied headlines like the above and through misplaced emphasis in reporting). that soci ety s~ould be free from risk regardless of th~ benefits that go along with the risks. Of co1:1rse. we wouldn't have a society if that philosophy had been followed in eurli~r years. There can be no program without risk. The challenge is to minimize the risk. which the oil sh.ale industry is certianly attempting to do. Denver ROSlELEA GASH Director, Environmental Affairs Rio Blanco Oil Shale Company
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Bloomsburg (PA) Press Oct. 29, 1980 Did. they d~bate energy? AT THIS ~G, we cannot, of course; Colorad9's rtch Piceance basin without predict what Mr:Carter or Mr. Reagan will extensive leasingof additional federal land talk abofit in the television debate which ...:. won highest marks. Such an amount most of you looked at last night. wouldreduce U.S. oil imports by aboqt 6 Surely, A,merica's energy problem came percent and save about $4.2 billion annually up for discussion. U not, it should have, for in the cost of imports .. there are few problems more important facing this. country. In fact, one can tie SUCH FIGURES ARE also sharp remind energy to alm~ every other national ers of. some real limits. Although shale problem including foreign relations and deposits in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming domestic concem toone form of energy -.. may contain)as much as 8 trillion barrels of petroleum. crude shale oil, it is agreed that only a few While Columbia and Montour county hundred billion barrels:-_could be recovered motorists have seen some reduction in with existing technology. And when existing pump prices and fuel oil tickets haven't technology is combined with practical conbeen running as high as anticipated, the straintst only a fraction of that could be experts in the field are still examin_ing produced for domestic consumption .. options to free America from the MideastOTA points out, for example, that air and umbWcal cord. water quality, topography, wildlifeand the helath of workers may be affected by the AMqNG .THE OPI'IONs is development development of a shale oil industry. The. of the U.S. oil shale industry in the West1 potential leaching of" waste disposal areas which ho~ds staggering promises -:. an after; pl~tsare abandoned is a major estimated yield of 400 million barrels. This concem it could imperil the quality of is equival~t to 57 years at current con-the Colorado Rivei: system. The Clean Air sumption lev~_s and more than two and one-. Act could limit production, but because oil half times the estimated oil reserves of shale remains something of an unknown Saudi.Arabia. quantity;' a. number of other environmental But as a report. by the Office of Technolstandards have_ yet to be applied. Spent oil ogy Assessment points out, shale oil cmmot shale has not been classified a hazardous be prodUced without social, economic and waste; __ environmental coi;iseque~ces. While producThe OTA report will-not be the last word ing too little n,.ay make little technological on the development of oil shale. But in or economic sense, the hazards of producfocusing upon some of the-problems of ing too much may outweigh the benefitsdeveloping America's enormous energy and would leave little time to improve and resources, it is a reminder that national control the technology. goals still outpac;e oqr capacities. It is a The OTA study considered four producreminder, too; that although Richard Nixon tion goals for the end of the decade in 1973 hoped for "energy independence" by ranging from 100,000 to 1 million b,arrels of 1980, the. new decade has arrived without shale oil daily. The 400,000-barrel goal even a coherent or satisfactory energy OTA says it could come mostly from policy.
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Greeley (CO) Tribune Nov. 23, 1980 Worker dangers seen in oil shale DENVER (AP) -Oil-shale workers will be exposed to toxic materials as well as to life-threatening accidents as oilshale development gains momentum on Colorado's Western Slope, a federal research team says. _. In a report submitted to the congressional Office of Technology. Dr. William N. Rom, a pulmonary a.9,(1 occupational medicine specialist at the University of Utah, said, "The real challenge for the industry is to develop the technology to control these hazards." The report listed possible hazards such as fibrogenic dusts and poisonous gases in the mines, cancer-causing substances in the shale retorts, toxic materials in the processing operations and the possibility of dangerous accidents. The research team recommended that a "health and surveillance system" be set up to identify new, unknown hazards. One Industry representative admitted that cancer-causing compounds are found in shale oil. But he added that fuel produc~rs would be able to control those dangers with measures already used in the petroleum industry and hard rock mines. But Rom was not convinced the industry would police itself. "I don't think the industry is going to do it voluntarily," he said. "It's going to be imperative for the government and society to make sure these guys do it cleanly." Rom compared the fledgling oil shale industry with that of the asbestos industry In the early 1900s. "Some diseases were first seen and nobody paid any attention." Merril Coomes, an environmental specialist for Tosco Corp., disagreed. "We know more about the chemical composition of shale oil than we do about petroleum," he said. Coomes said many of the toxic compounds found in oil shale also are found in oil refineries. "The industry has learned how to handle those materials safely," he said. "Because we work with them every day, we take it for granted. It's no big deal." i Similar articles also appeared in: Denver (CO) Post Fort Collins (CO) Coloradoan Grand Junction (CO) Sentinel Boulder (CO) Camera
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Other
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DOE _Energy -;Audit Project Draws\Praise By MITCB BE'M'S WASHINGJ:ON-When Con gress' Qffite or Iccbaoloa Assessmenf'qOTA> issued a critique tbiS summer on the Energy Department's conservation programs, it handed out poor marks almost across the board. But in the midst of all the stinging criticisms was one program OTA called "highJy successful": the industrial programs office's Energy Analysis and Diagnostic Centers. Briefly. the program funds six trniversity engineering teams who cooduet free energy audits and <.'OSt-benefit analyses for smalland medium-sized manufacturing finns. The 1115 firms that participated in the program in 1979 are expected to save a total of $1.4 million every year because of conservation measures they adopted as a result of lhe audits. And statistics show the average industrial energy audit carried out through the program can save a firm $66,000 a year in energy costs by pointing out conservation projects that have simple pay-s,.,, /JOI:, l'11p I H Continued from Page One back of about a rear. The OT A's praise of the program stems from impressive statistics showing that more than 50 percent of the time industrial users take the advice of the auditors and actually invest in the suggested conservation meas ures, and the firms' energy savings are ten times greater than the federal government spends to operate the program. In addition tbere is a 99.4 percent annual rate of return on the u,t!II ,onser.ation investment ( including the federal expenditure and the private investment in conservation measures), indicating that virtually all of the federal and private investment is recouped in one year. And, according to the DOE fiscal 1981 budget request, the six auditing centers can be run for $660,000. OT A and the House Science and Technology Committee have both suggested that the program be expanded from six states to a na'tionwide "industrialconserva Unn extension <1Prvice." 1 .. Energy User News (New York, NY) Nov. 3, 1980 Likewise, Rep. Richard L.,Ot tinger ( O-N. Y. l has drafted legislation that would fund the program in all 50 states ( see Sept. 25 EUN, page 4). Perhaps, most important, plant engin~rs who had their operations audited told Energy User News they were "very pleased'' by the program. '"I doubt very seriously we would have paid someone to do an audit, .. said Mike Davis, an engineer at Armstrong Rubber Co.'s small plant in Clinton, Tenn. Even ff we had done an in-house audit I don't think it would have been 'as complete. We don't have experience with large boilers ... and our everyday problems take so much time." Dave Hoexter, who oversees the program for DOE in Washington, is not modest about its success. Asked about the heaps of praise the program has attracte inspection. Prolile Prepared tln the ba!iis of its measurements and ui_1~ervations, the team will take three to four weeks to prepare a Di1.1gnostic Report: a profile or thf! plant's energy use, including specific suggestions for reducing energy consumption, es timates of the amount of money and energy that can be saved by following the recommendations. the cost of implementing them. and the estimated payback. Four to eight months later the firm ls contacted to find out which of the suggestions haw: been, or will be, implementert. Each center provides about 40 to 45 audits a year, Hoexter says, and usually gets more requests than it can handle. "We're only scratching the surface," he adds. The program is aimed only at small-and medium-sized plants. Hoexter says, because "they don't have the expertise in-house and they often don't know where to turn.'' The program generally serves manufacturing plants with less than 200 employees and less than $25 million in sales a Jear. Plant engineers contacte last week said they probably could not have afforded to hire an energy auditing firm. and thus would not have had an energy audit of their plants if not for the govemrnent~ponsored program. 13v the end of 1979, 188 small manufacturing plants in Georgia, Pennsylvania and Tennessee had been audited by the original three centers. or the 105 audits made in 1979, an average audit found that a single plant could save 25.406 million Btus (mmBtusl of energy per year and $65,960 per year by i~plementi~g all of t~e conservation sugg-r ions made m the audit. The fums chose to implement 52 percent. of the suggestions. "In 99 percent of the cases," the reason manufacturers gave for not implementing all the rec ommendations was a lack of capital, Hoexter says. Nevertheless, the 105 firms audited in 1979 wiII spend a total of $1.7 million to implement audit suggestions by the end of 1980, saving them a total of 534,100 mmBtus of energy and $1.4 mil/ Uon every vear.
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/!e"l-~_m_or_d __ f_r_orm_, ----.1/ / Washington Energy Department's R&D Progra,:n Under Fire Again John K. Bowersox, Washington Editor A hly negative report by the c of Technol Assessmel'.lt (OTA), an advisory arm of the Congress, has destroyed the brief respite from congressional and public aitidsm the Department of Energy (DOE) had enjoyed since Charles Duncan succeeded the beleaguered James Schlesinger as Secretary. The product of a study requested. by the House Committee on Science and Technology, and, directed at DOE' s Conservation I and Solar Energy programs (C&SE), the OTA report minces 1 no words: "A strikin~ conclusion I of the (investigatingj panels," it says, "was that C&SE lacks a dear vision of where it is going and how it will get there." Problem areas detailed in the report in clude a failure to set priorities, poor evaluation techniques, in adequate data analysis, overly complex procurement procedures, and insufficient attention to basic research. The result, ac cording to OTA, has been that programs for alternate energy sources with recognized commercial feasibility have languished, and conservation goals with a near-term potential that "dwarfs that of solar'' have been ill defined and poorly ranked. A defective organizational structure that encourages compe tition between the solar program and the conservation program is also faulted in the report. Using C&SE' s buildings program as a case in point, the OTA contends that conservation and solar tend to be treated as "mutually exdusive technologies" when an inte grated approach would dearly produce more cost-effective and energy-efficient solutions. The blame for all of these shortcomings, however, does not rest entirely within C&SE, the re port states at the outset, .but can be attributed in part to the "per vasive belief within and outside of DOE that senior DOE manage ment does rtot really care about the C&SE programs ... Responding to these and other chargesmainly the low level of funding for C&SE as compared to other energy programs Secretary Duncan called the OTA re port "unfair" and "unrealistic:" in view of overall Federal budget re straints. In testimony before a House subcommittee hearing (called' after internal DOE plan ning documents, also critical of insufficient solar funding, had been leaked to Congress and the press), Duncan said the figures were misleading since solar technology is considerably less expensive to test than other technologies such as oil shale commercialization, nuclear reac tors, or coal gasification. Duncan also came under fire beca)ltse a hastily convened Ga~hol Study Group operating under DOE auspices appears to have been structured with a known bias against gasohol. Its largely negative report came only six months after another DOE stu4y had produced positive findings on gasohol feasibility. Both issues have rekindled the long-standing aiticism of DOE's 33 Consulting Engineer (Barrington, IL) October 1980
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Reader's Digest January 1981 Bv J.ucu NAmAM MILLf 't,' .-Which Path. to Our. .. Energy Futufe? The problem is not shortage. Ies how lVC select the best, most economic combination of existing fuels and new technologies to. carry us into a solar /fusion era,just over the horizon, when the world should have all the cheap, clean energy it will ever need. The present synfuels program is ,u>l the answer IT's 'STAGGERING IN ITS SIZE-the biggest peacetime project the United States government has ever undertaken. Jimmy Carter proudly called it "greater than the sum total of the interstate highway system, the Marshall Plan and the space program combined." It's the "synfuels" project, now gearing up to spend at least $88 billion (and probably far more) to create from scratch an industry capable of manufatunn.r America's gas and oil. But there's another way of de scribing this massive effort. It may well be the most wasteful program in the country's hist<~ry, and it could cause the nation to repeat a pro foundly serious mistake in energy planning that we made a quarter of a century ago, whose etf ects haunt us to this day. To understand what's / involved, start with a brief look at what the program is supposed to accomplish. According to its backers, the syn fuels project will make America independent of Arabian oil-a "dec laration of energy independence," in Carter's words. Its $88 billion-if ~Congress appropriates that entire sum-will subsidize industry eff oru j .-9,' j'.j ~i I i I f READER'S DIGEST to synthesize oil and g.u from two .. studies." Even when the first plant is resources that the United States finished, it will produce only 50,000 owns in enormous abun~ancc: coal barrels of oil a day. This means Im and oil shale. By 19871 says the synsuch huge plants will be_ needed to fuels law American companies will meet the 1987 target of a sU1gle quad, produce 1one quad of synfuels a and a host of studies show that just year, and by 1992 an enormous four this fir~t quad'~ worth of_ construc quads. tion will requue one Jlurd of the "There s not a chance of meeting. nation's current industrial construe these deadlines," says Gordon Maction capacity. Donald chief scientist for the Mitre But building the plants is just part Corpor;tion, a leading scienti~c .of the project. Dams will _be ~ceded study group in Washington. Pracuto provtd~ water, an~ p1~l!ncs to cally no one in Washington or in the take the '?ti to rc6n~rtes. Bt!hons of energy industry thinks we can come dollars wdl be required to improve anywhere near the law's production the nation's. coal-handling railroa~s, targets. Consider a few of the prob~ and new highways and towns wall lems involved: have to be built for the 200,000 Several mountain ranges in the: people brought to the sparsely settled Rockies arc saturated with oil-more Rockies to get the project started. oil than tbc Arab nations possess. But What will all this do to the how d(! we get it? A plant capable of region's ecology? A study by ~mining ihe needed quantities of rock rcss' s Office of Tcchnolo Assessand melting out the oil would be one mcnt 'A s ows at tt w1 c of the world's largest industrial fa-1mposs1 c to produce even a quad of cilities. Today, we have only a half oil without violating the area's air dozen small pilot plants. There arc pollution laws. Nor docs anyone thousands of unanswered qucstiom know how many miles of canyon the about how to scale these operations project's piles of spoiled rock will fill up co c9mmercial size. up-or whether it will be possible to It takes at least eight years to build grow back vegetation. Enormous a conventional dcClric-gencrating quantities of water arc required for plant. No one knows how long a shale-oil plants, and ~here ~c al shalc-oil plant will take. Indeed, the ready water-short region wdl get government hasn't even signed a them is another mystery. contract for such a plant; it's just Isn't there a quicker, surer way now beginning to spend hundreds of of achieving oil independcncef In millions of dollars for "feasibility fact, there is, and it's ca,lcd conscr. vation. Every major energy study of !A quad is a quadtillion Bri1iih thermal uniu, the past three years has pointed equal 1o 1hc oil i:anicd by 170 aupcrWlkcn; in to dozens of methods for improving 1979, America' 1oul energy CG1Uwnp1ion i:amc lo 79 quads, and our oil import wulcd 16 quads. the efficiency of our cars, houses, j"O
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offices, factories. Energy experts now agree that conservation could cut our oil imports in half by 1990-an eight-quad saving-and elimi nate them altogether by the turn 1 of the century. i So, should we scrap the synfuels o approach? Critics Jay it should be reduced, not canceled. Synfuels can't g solve the slu>rl-lerm crisis of our de0 pendcnce on Arab oil, but they can help with the /ong-knn problem of declining gas and oil reserves. "What we need now from a synfuels pro gram," says OTA directer John Gib bons, "is not quads but knowledge. We should be scaling up from pilot plants to a few commcrcial-si~ plants to get the necessary engineer, ing knowledge and cost data. When we do have a market for major synfuel production, we'll know how to build the plants in a planned and prudent way, and not in a national .. ' pamc. WHERE, THEN, should WC turn tq resolve 04r energy future? In fact, there: arc several sources to choose from. The most promising inv~lvc technologies that aren't yet per fected; when they are perfected (i~ some cases this is very close), they will produce energy that is clean, virtually free and theoreti cally limitless. But that's at the end of the energy rainbow; to get us there we will have to rely on more conventional fuels. Let's look at WIND FARMS WHEN TttE SUN beats the earth's surface, the warmed air rises and new air is. sucked in Jo res place it. Thi: re sult is wind. At 22 m,.p.h., each ~quare yard of wind carries enough energy to light five 100-watt bulbs; in all, 1 "t".::-.;;. there is an csti'i:f':illiilit ... matc
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FLOWER POWER investment (up to 40 percent cur rently) through tax credits, and still more by sellinc some of the power. During peak sunlight hours, when your rooftop was givJng off more electricity thatl you needed, excess power would automatically feed back to the utility-for which you: d r get credit on your bill. i That's for Phoenix and similar i Sun Belt cities. When the cells get : down to around $1 a watt, they'll be cheaper than utility electricity just about everywhere in the country. When will that bc?That's one of the EViY YEAl, the croplands, pastures and forests of America soak up between l5 and 50 quads' worth of energy through the process of pho tosynthesis. In cf. fect, these anqual charges of energy convert about half the country's land area into gigantic storage battery containing 650 to 1000 quads of energy. How much of this 50-callcd biomass can we turn into fuels? Probably a great deal, but the ques tion of exactly how much b a matter of "on-the-one-hand, on-thc-othcrhottest questions in the whole en~rgy debate, with trillions of dollars at stake, and the answer depends on whom you ask. "I don't know of any' improve ments that arc likely to make photo voltaic systems competitive in the next 15 to lO years," says Or. Chaun cey :;tarr, a spokesman for the dec tric utilities. "Not so," says Joseph Lindmayer, president of the Solarex Corpora tion, the country's largest' cell manu facturer. "We have no doubt we'll be able to make the cells an economic reality for roof-cop in~tallacion in about six years." Who's right? In 1954, when the photovoltaic cell was invented by BellTclephone Laboratories, it cost $moo a watt. Three years ago, the cost was down to $15 a watt. Today several companies arc in a neck-and neck race to perfect an approach that will cut the price to below $1. When that happens, the era of the tireless super cell will be here. hand" speculation. On the one hand, despite all you hear about running our can on al cohol distilled from grain, a mas sive new industry would be required to produce this fuel in significant ~uancitics. Last year, for instance:, gasohol" ( IO percent alcohol, 90 percent gasoline) wanold at filling stations in l8 states-but it replaced less than 0.1 percent of our gasoline consumption. On the other hand, it takes only flalf an acre co produce the alcohol component of enough gasohol to run the average car for a year. This means that we have enough unused farmland (about 50 million acres) to produce all the alcohol needed to fuel rno million cars with gasohol. JJ But on still another hand, nobody knows at what point the: diversion of crops to industrial use would start raising the price of food. So many unpredictables arc involved-popu lation growth, export demand, farm technology, etc.-that economists can't even agree among themselves about the long-term potential. Or consider our forest biomass. On the one hand, dry wood has almost as high a Btu content as coal has been alhmcd only '700 million a year ~r the next two years-about a sixth of the spending rate provided for getting a synfuels industry going. So the best you can say about. bio mass's potential is that on the one haqd it looks good, but on the other we aren't doing enough about it. from western mines. The forest IN TH!, LAST products industry already gets half of DOZEN YEAllS, ar !ts heat and electricity from wood, chitccturc ha$ and there's a great deal more wood gone through a available. furests cover 30 percent of quiet revolution the l.Jnitcd Stares arid many of them in the way it can ;arc serioudv ~vcrcrowdcd with trees. 'use the sun's energy. Today an archi On the oJl,er hand, most of the tect is able to eliminate about 35 available tre~s arc in small, widely percent of a house's future heating scattered sJands, ~r from existing bill without lldding a cent to its roads. Collecting such a dispersed construction cost-mereJy by orient resource would be inefficient coming the mucturc and its main win pared with tapping ~oncentratcd endows to within 15 degree~ of due crgy like coal or oil shale-and the south. When other features are add. economiQ of converting wood to cd-friplc-glazed windows, insular alcohol arc no better known than ing curtains, rock walls that store : those of the synfuel plants. hear ecc;-it may be possible to knock So should we be optimistic about another 35 percent off the fuel bill for biomass? On the one hand, a study only a few thousand extra dollars. published last yc;u-by OTA says This is what's known as "passive" there's much more recoverable biosolar design-passive because it uses mass in the country than generally no moving parts and lets the sun do realized; given strong government all the work. If you take passive support, we could collect a huge 12 to solar house and add water-filleJ 17 quads' worth of energy from our glass panels on the roof, then use forests and farms by the year 2000. pumps and fans to spread the water's On the 01/ur hand, the governheat around to radiators, storage menc is nor promoting biomass with systems, etc., you have an "active" anything like the enthusiasm ic's putsystem. (As with photovoltaic cells, ting into synfuels. In fact, biomass investment in these solar techniques J-f ,tw.JO: P. fOlt8UJIKOllM. 41100.
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produces a 40 percent tax credit.) The long-term savings that could be reaped by putting such tech niques into our homes and offices arc enormous. About 1.5 percent of America's housing is replaced each year, which means a 30-percent cum. over between now and the end of the century. If this 30 percent contained all the new solar techniques, com bined with the best insulation, these new houses alone could save an ~nnual four quads by the year 2000. That's the good news. The bad news is that only two or three percent of our new homes could be called "~olar" in design. "Just go through any new housing de velopment," says Bruce Baccci, a Department of Energy (DOE) solar. design specialist, "and count the houses oriented toward the south. That will give you an idea." What's wrong? For one thing, the building industry is made up mainly of small, old-fashioned contractors; together with materials makers, they fight any changes in archaic building codes that actually outla,w some of the best new materials and design techniques. But the main blame: has to fall on DOE, the agency that's supposed to get the building codes changed and inform both builders and the public about the potential of solar design. Lase year an exhaustive Congressional study concluded that search Institute, "but they won't give us the budget to tel.I anyone." THE. PROCESS that creates new atoms by melt ing them to gether instead of splitcing them apart is FUSION'S FIRE called fusion. We already know how to_ do this, in an uncontrolled way, wtth the fusion bomb. Bue the bomb merely illustrates the difficulty of controlling fusion inside a reactor The heat given off in the bomb ex plosion is between 10 million and 100 million degrees Fahrenheit, and there seems to be no way of fusing atoms without generating these un. i~aginable temperatures. Optimists thmk that a fusion process in which the heat can be contained at a local generating plant may be achieved in the first half 9( the next century. Such a process would give the world a new fuel comparabl1; to solar energy in its abundance. This is because the element deuterium, the most likely substance for triggering the fusion process, can be easily extracted, by thi: billions of c1uads' worth, from sea water. DOE's lack of enthusiasm for conSo IF you look far into the future servation and solar techniques was say1 to the year 2050-what you see is "crippling" their development. "We the end of the energy rainbow: an know what we can do," says one era in which perfeaed solar and official at DOE's Solar Energy Refusion technologies will provide all ,tt010; fHI: OAAkOfft COU.fC110H J_j i the energy the world will need. From that perspective, the present debate takes on a new meaning. It's not over what our permanent fuel will be for the future, but over the choice of a "transitional" fuel or fuels to sran the gap between the end of oi and gas abundance and the beginning of the solar /fusion era. Almost everybody's choice as the key cransitional fuel is coal. niuic acid. The Scandinavians say their acid comes from England's coal burning generators, and the north east p<>llution is blamed primarily on generators in the Ohio River Valley. Even more ominous is a discovery made at an observatQry in Hawaii. Readings of the earth's upper atmo sphere show an alarming buildup of carbon dioxide. Some scientists sus pect much of it comes from coaland oil-burning plants. They also fear that if the buildup continues at its present rate, it could slow down the BLACK GOLD venting of the earth's heat into space THE UN IT E o and, by the end of this century, warm STATES possesses Earth's atmosphere by several degargantuan re;grees. This could mean a noticeable serves of coal-melting of the polar ice cap, leading 6000 quads to raised ocean levels and inunda known to be retion. of coastal areas around the coverable, with a globe. potential for I 5,000 more. And these But whatever its problems, coal reserves can do anything oil and gas will cleatly be a major part of our can do. They can be converted lO a energy future, at least in the decades gas and piped to our stoves and immediately ahead. furnaces, turned into a liquid synfuel to run our transportation system or burned to produce electricity. Now the bad news. Coal has always been our dirtiest fuel from mine to chimney top, and in the last decade scientists have discovered two new pollution problems. In Scandi navia, Canada and the northeastern United States, fish spawns and other aquatic life have been wiped out by rain that's laden with sulfuric and Expcru agree tha1 our oil rcocrvn will continue ro decline. Rcccn! discovcric1, however, indiClllc Ula! we may l,avc w more natural gas than anyone im"ilincd. Tllc,c diu:ovcrics wil! be 1hc subjc.:t ol a future Digc>1 ac1iclc. NEED FOR NUCLEAR DESPITE ITS abun dance, coal alone won't get us across the gap. fur the short term, we will ,, still need the ,:;: ~" nuclear plants we ;);tfu-JJ have today, operat ing under ~he strictest 'safeguards. As anyone who ca_n read a bumper ~c "Ac.id Rain; Scourge from die Skin," page 109. 56 JO, IHOJO; OOUQ.l.A. M. WJL&OHJa!.ACai. 81Aft IOIIOM rttOIO; I. J. Ni\.&OHJattOlh.l AUOC.
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sticker kpows, nuclear energy has a side effects of the choices, what good side and a bad side. The good combination of technologies makes side is that our nuclear plants work the most sensel This brings us, final and ilre competitive with coal plants. ly, to the mistake we made 25 yean The bad side is the much-publicized ago. safety question. And there's an even In 1954, Lewis Strauss, chairman worse controversy brewing for their of the Atomic Energy Commission, future: the battle over a plan to shift said that atomic reactors might to a new kind of atomic plant, the sosomeday produce such an abundance called breeder reactor. of energy that electricity would be The breeder's advantage is that "too cheap to meter." The industry's when it burns uranium it converts trade group, the Atomk Industrial the uranium to plutonium-which it Forum, now admits that many indus can then use as a fuel. Thus it actually try officials felt this was unrealistic. breeds more fuel than it consumes. But they didn't share ihcir feeling The problem is that plutonium is wit,h the public. As a result, Strauss's one of the world's most toxic subphrase-along with safety assurances stances. An invisible speck ~f it from government and industry-con causes cancer in laboratory animals, vinccd Congr-css that nuclear plants and the speck keeps its virulence for were the energy source of the future, .20,000 years. Each breeder would and that they should receive 11inually produce several hundred pounds of all of the governmept's coergy. plutonium a year, which would have research subsidies. to be transported from the reactors After a decade or so, it became to processing plants and back again. apparent that we were subsidizing Moreover, if a terrorist group got an industry with severe problems. hold of as little as 20 pounds of But by that time so many billions of it they'd be able to produce an dollars had been spent that the proc atomic bomb. Opponents say that if ess had become self-fulfilling: Be we t;vcr have to depend on breeders, cause Congress armmeJ chat nuclear we'd find ourselves the prisoners energy was the only new energy of a lethally dangerous "plutonium source worth backing, it hecame the economy." only new energy source. WHEN YOU consider all the energy sow-cc~ available for the long pull, it's obvious that our problem is not an energy ;/wrlagc. On the contrary, we have a whole spectrum of sources to choose from. The critical question is this: given the different economic uncertainties and environmental Were there other new sources Congress could have backed? For one, the phowvoltaic cell was invent ed in the same year that Strauss made his "too-cheap-to-meter" prediction. If Congress had given solar cells a fraction of what it invested in nuclear development, the United States would now possess a solar, 57 I, READER'S DIGEST energy industry rc~dy to expand as rapidly as needed-and unencum bered by the economic and environ mental problems that plague the nuclear industry. The parallel between that chain of events and the present synfuels situa tion is striking. We arc now building a new industry whose economics and technology arc not known and whose effects on the environment could be severe. And while we gear up for this massive commitment, we arc allowing conservation and solar technologies to develop at a far more leisurely pace, even though they show at lease as much economic promise and almost certainly carry fewer environmental risks. In other words, we ~e poised on the brink of another tcff.fulfilling process. Fortuq_atdy, it's not too late' to step back. The synfocls ~rogram has not yet grown big enough to develop an irresistible momentum. Only $20 billion of the proposed $88 billion has been amhorized-and only a fraction of that has been spent. So write your Representative in Washington. Tell him t~at Congress should 1'mmedia1dy begin debate on how to (a) scale down the synfuels program,' and (b) scale up conserva tion and solar programs. It's still possible for America to develop a balanced cner~r p~licy for both the shorHcrm crms and the tong-term problem. The basic ques tion is not whether WC have the fuels co cope with our energy dilemma. It's whether our political system has the foresight to use the fuels we do p scss in the wisest way. .. .fl for information on reprints ~. .. 'QI of this article, see pace 214 n ~ j .. : t ............... i ',, .. Su e~ BlooperJ' .' a~w !Jloopq 1Tu~ ~t s!:.ater', ,=oUe~tio~ of 1V bl~pen: ,: "ST~Y ~NED fo~ an Cl(citing Sunchy afte~noon of NFL football,-frol j:Ountdow9 to kissoffl" '. ,( .... '' ., "' 'i\Fn:1 a heavy day of trading on w.ill Streer, the tickle tape ~seq with blue chop sticks .leading the Dow Jones average}' "W WILL IETIJitN to 'The Urge of Night' in a moment" 1 t,I I "M.uutt ANDEllSON will now sing in this holiday season -of joy-'Oyvcy A Maria/!' ...... ,,. ''SE~ BAIUIM;STIEIS4Nq ~rtrayF~y B.-i~ in fimny Girl" : PN New Year' E~c telcca$t: ''It is almost midnight 50 wi:: now switch you to 42nd Street for a Times $quarc pickup/' -Puhli>~ by C.owa 1 .. -~ :,. t" ''. '; }, : i < l' J~ :
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Washington Report Oct. 6, 1980 Output Decline Linked tc;, Rules Federal healtli, safety and environmenity of the U.~. economy as a whole has tal regulations are responsible for 8 to 15 suffered three successive slumps. No re-percent of the slump-in U.S. productivity, viva! is.in sight." according to a report by Congress's Office Previous studies have credited U.S .. of TechnoloSI,_ Assessment. health; safety and environmental rules with -The Otxstfuly calls for usinga regua 5 percent to 20 percent slowdown in the latoiy budget to control burgeoning fed-nation's ~nomic 'productivity. eral regulation~ Such a device would help "The -.negative etiects of regulation on Congress set priorities forregula.iion. employment. and inflation appear to be Sen. Lloyd Bentsen (D-Texas), chairrelatively small." Cannon says. "Lagging man of Congress's Joint Economic ComcapitaHnvestment, inflation and eco mittee, has introduced a regulatory budget nomic uncertainty, rapid growth of the la measure. in the Senate_ bor fomnnd energy-price increases may Rep. Clarence Brown CR-Ohio), the be moreiimportant causes of the produc; ranking_ GOP. member of the JEC, says~ tivity decline." t 'Tor too long now, government reg\Jlators 'Phe OTA report is part of a broader have bad .tunnel vision, focusing only on Commerce Committee study of the impact the benefits to be derived from regula,tion of goven.unent regulation on industrial without regard to its. cost.. fnno.vation.: j "I support: the use of government regu-~-... ) .....:......;. __________ Iations to meet social and environmental goals, but I also believe we must begin to recognize that. these goals cannot be met .'. without costs. "..c. -:,: The OTA report was drafted by profes sors Robert Haveman of the University:of W'tsconsin, Gregory 0hristiansen of Colby College and Frank Gollop of Bolton Col lege. The study was released by the JEC-and the Senate Commerce Committee: Sen:: Howard Cannon (D-Nev.), Com merce-Committee~,: commented that "In less tBad 1a ttars,! theproductiv-. .,, ~ .--~,._.._;..,...,.. '--u,J", ... .,,-...
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By Ray Morgan Charles Kimball .. heads scie:qce group Dr. Charles N. Kimball, president emeritus of Midwest Research Institute and a major contributor to American science through the institute here. bas been elected to the prestigious job of chairman of the advisory COWJcil_ of the Office of Tecbnoiog t\svssrnenube research agency ottbe u.s. Congress. Kimball. 69, is the fourth cbmman of the important office smce it was estabJlsbed i.n 1972. and succ:elll(ls the current chairman. Dr. Frederick Robbim. Nobel Prize wiJlller for his work on P9lio vaccine. who becomes president of the IDstitute of Medicine. The other two clwnnen have been Dr: Jerome Wiel ner, former president of the Massa~ts Institute of. Technology, who is re~ to serve as vice chair maJYund.er Kimball. and Dr. Harold Brown. who currently serves as the Sec:retary of Defense. In announcing Kimball's appointment. Rep. Morris K.. Udall. D-Ariz., clwrman o! the Office of Technology Assessment's congressional board~ said: we1come the isefection of Cba.ries Kimball and Jerome Wiesner : as chairman and vice chairman of TAAC. Together they will. make-.an extraordinarily effective -team in assisthlg the. Congress to deal with the increasingly " Khnball is no stranger to federal advisory service. paving also served through the years as a member of 1be Department of Commerce Tecllnical Advisory Board~ President Dwigbt Elaenbower's Conference on Research and Development for Small Business. the U.S. Army Scientific Advisory Panel and the Engineer-ing Fowxlation Research Conferences. In his new post. Kimball. who served as president of Midwest Research Institute from 1950 to 1975 and who was honored as Mr. Kansas City-in 1973. will supervise the gathering of comprehensive. in-depth information and expertise in various fields of knowledge and stud '. ies which assess energy, environment. natil>nal securi ty. health, agriculture, telecommunications. transpoi::~ tation and world trade 'for the Congress. Current technology assessments in which the 12 member board is engaged include analysis of alterna tive energy futures, global energy trends and synthetic: fuels for-transportationr disposal of nuclear wastes and technologies for determining cancer risks from the environment. Kansas City Times Oct. 28, 1980
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Executive Memo November 1980 ----~,, Technology Transfer Unstoppable The Congressional Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) finally has agreed, at least in principle, with what export-minded U.S. firms have been telling Government red-tape makers for years. Says a recent OTA report: "There is little the U.S. alone could have done, or can do, to completely prevent the Soviet Union from acquiring civilian technology from the West that it can put to military use;" "Western technology obtained through civilian trade has made some contribution to Soviet military strength ... (but) that contribution probably has been small-al though it is difficult to determine with any precision." U.S. efforts to use controls on trade to compel changes in Soviet foreign or domestic policy thus far have shown "little evidence of success;" in part because the U.S. "is not the sole source of most of the technologies desired by Communist nations." The. report, "Technology and East-West Trade," is at the Government Printing Office. Stock number: 052-00300723-l. Price: $7. / ~/
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Detroit (MI) News Nov. 27, 1980 Doctors voice fears of nuclear .attack By HUGH McCANN be killed and 500,000 injured. Injuries would be New Stan wrner caused primarlly by burns, blast and radiation. Hiatt describes the, experience of a severely burn-ed young man hosp1 alized t.11 Boston. Leaders of the nation's medical community Of the 18,000 hospital beds in and around Dewant to meet as soon as possible with President-troit, no more than 5,000 would be relatively THE YOUTH MAN 1,' -~ ,ed' 281 units of fresh-elect Ronald Reagan to inform him that, If the U.S. undamaged. These could accommodate only one frozen plasma an1. large quantities of other fluids. gets into it nuclear war, doctors could do almost percent of the injured. He had six operations, including much skin graft. nothing for the millions of Injured survivors_ i ing. He required mechanical breathing equipment most of whom would be left to die in agony. IN ANY NUCLEAR attack, Dr. Hiatt pomts out, and many tubes in bis arteries and veins. This disclosure is made by Dr. Howard H. Hiatt, ~everal major cities are expected to be.simultaneDespite these measures, Dr. Hiatt emphasizes, of the Harvard University School of Public Health ous '.targets. Because most of the nation's doctors the man died on his 33rd day in hospital. "His in in the current issue of The JournAJ of the Ameri. and hospitals are cohceatrated in metropolitan j~ries were likened by the person who supervised can Medical Association. In an editorial, taken areas, the casualties and the decimation of medical his care to th. osedescribed for many of thq victims from an address to the AM.A's Board ef Trustees facilities would be felt region wide:..... if not nation. of the atomic bomb that exploded over Hiroshi this fall, he says: "So little ls said about (medical widli. ma." treatment) because so little that ls hopeful can be,. His pessimistic prognosis ls based on thfl>elief After a nuclear attack, says Dr. Hiatt "no one said. that ,_severe burn injuries, w'1ich require I highly c?u~d deliver the services required by 'the burn sophisticated treatmeJ1t, would be the most w4de-. victim in Boston." "IF THI! MEDICAL community breaks the virtual Spread injury, sw-amping _available 'doctors ,nd. ---------------~-~~.:.... silence on this issue, we might help interrupt the hospitals. nuclear-arms race: This, In turn, might help preAccording to the Office ot Technology report, vent what could otherwise be the last epidemic !he co*1bined facilities of !lli U.S. hospitals can our civilization will know ... treat ~q mere than 2,ftOO severe-burn cases. "If our political and military leaders have based hi frder to ttemonstrate the highly sophisticated / strategk planning on mistaken assumptions con-: treatihlmt necessaq to save a burn victim; Dr cernlng the medical aspects of i nuclear war, we 1 have a responsibillty. We must inform them and the American people of the full-blown clinical pie,I ture that would follow a nuclear attack., and the impotence of the medical community to off er i 'meaningful response. ; "If we remain silent, we risk betraying ourselves and our nation." : AT TH! FALL meeting, the AMA board came to the conclusion that the medical situation followIng a nuclear war would be hopeless, and .that the only logical way to treat survivors would be to preventing such a war. Eighteen months ago th~.. ce of Technolo'"' Assessment ef Congress drew tip accounts of e results ofhypothetical nuclear attacks en Detrblt and Leningrad. In the Detroit scenario, 70 squares miles of the city would be destroyed, 250,000 would
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Fort Worth (TX) Star-Telegram Nov. 21, 1980 A1t!Asaysitcouldn't halldleN-war -Chicago-Tribune News-service Recent talk by public figures about our A study by the Congressional Office ~f The American Medical Association Fri-Winning or even surviving a.nuclear war Technolo~ Assessment showed71iitah day indicated it plans to seek a meeting with reflects a widespread failure to appreciate atomic bomb with the force of 1 million tons .President-elect Ronald Reagan to inform the. reality that the medical profession of 'f?l!Twere dropped on Detroit or Lenin~ him ~t the nation's medical community would be virtually helpless, he said. grad it would kill 250,000 people and injure can not cope with a nuclear war. The majority of the nations hospitals and 500,000. Remaining hospitals would be able The AMA' board of trustees decided on d_octors are located in the major popu1-tion to ta_ke care of less than l percent of tbe the action after asses11tng the affects of a centers, "'.hich are the prime targets for surnvors. nuclear war and concluding that me~cine nuclear bombs, and th ey woul d be deMost of the in1ured would b""bum v,:ctims would not be able to h die th mv stroyed in the first attack, Hiatt said. .. and most would die in ::ony. e su ors. Few physicians and hospitals would be andtheircarewouldbehopeless,saidHiatt. There is a myth. especially among many left to treat the millions of severely injured The ~are of just one severely burned pagovernment officials, that injured persons survivors and they would be immediately tient can. tax the resources of a big hospital. could be adequately cared for said Dr. Howoverwhelmed, he said. .he explained. In a recent case a 20-year.old udH.HJatt oftheHarvardSchoolofPubllc Any nuclear war would inevitably cause man suffering from third-degree burns Health. who presented the findings to the death, disease and suffering of epidemic received 281units of fresh-frozen plasma. trustees. .. ;p_roporti~ and without effective medical 147 units of fresh-frozen red blbad cells, 37 "Wemu&tinformthemandtheAmerican help, he said. \ .. ,units of platelets, 36 units of albumin and-peopleotthefullblowncllnicalpicturethat "If. the medical comm'unity breaks the extensive skin grafts. Despite these heroic would follow a n~lear attack ':lld the impo--: virtual silence on this issue, we might help efforts the patient died after 33 days. tence of-~he medical ~.ommuruty to offer~ interrupt the nuclear arms race. This, in "Anobjectiveexaminationofthemedical meaningful resp'?nse, he said in an editonturn. llllght help prevent what could othersituation following a nuclear war leads to al in t}?.e curren~ ISSue of ~e ournal qf the wise be the la:st epidemic our civilization but one conclusion prevention is our only Am~~n Medical Associatum. wilt~o~,"_ said~ ... \ ... recourse," said Hiatt.
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Defense Daily (Washington, D'. C.) Oct. 16, 1980 OTA PLANNING ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL BENEFICIAL SPACE PROJECTS An assessment of potentially beneficial space missions in t~7areas of remote sensing, materials processing, manufacturing in space, possibly satl!llit~ communications and related aspects of space transportation systems is being planned by the Congressional aMce of Iecbaalogy Assessment C.OTA). Contractors interested in participating in the assessment a.re invited to notify the Office by Oct. 31. The plan is to select specific projects in these areas based on their potential benefits to the nation and to the public; to develop a range of program and policy options for each project for the 1980-2000 period; and to assess each option for its societal, political, economic, institutional and international implications; e.g., contribution to U.S. national goals, international cooperation versus competition, and the economic returns from investments in space technology. OTA intends to select projects in part on the basis of current assessments of the existing U.S. position in space, cbara_cteristics of decisions that led to this position, and benefits that have accrued and are. accruing to the public and the nation from civilian space activities over the past two dec~des. /
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Muskogee (OK) Phoenix & Times Democrat Nov. 9, 1980 -. T:-'-"'(" ?' """! t ~.-. ---.,,..--,.-"" :Death _statistics -.: ~SC>b~fing. d,espite saf_ety ~policies_ WASHINGTON (GNS) There are so many grim and sobe~ statistics in a new report from the fed-. eral g~mment that it should be mandatory reading for everyone convisted, of-a dri~g offense~ Especially the drunk ones. The Department of Transportation's "Progress Re port No~_ 3" on. occupant crash protection considers the nation's traffic toll. -~a major public health problem of epidemic. proportioas" and then gets down to the awe some;. mind-boggling count: ; .''The current toll is now over 50,000 deaths and four million injuries eaclryear -The monetary cost to society is now estimated at $50 billion each year." worse still are year-oldfigures..from Congress's.Jlf.-6ce ot Iesbnqlm 4~em~ ~In this century .approximately two million persons have_ died and nearly 100 million have been injured throughthe use of motor vehicles -a-total that is morethan three times the combat losses suffered by the United States in all wars. . -NQn the average, a highway fatalify occurs every 11 minutes an,ran injury every nine seconds." "Progress Report No. 3" deals largely with' occupant proteetion and crash-survival design engineering, pos ing_ in essence_ the, provocative and. certainly logical questions: _.-..... --~-, .. --. :.,:. ... ,. : If the science-of. crash-worthiness'has progressed to the point where_ fragile goods eggs, china, clocks, cameras, television sets and computers can be packaged. and shipped by air, land and sea with little breakage. why not people in automobiles? .Of course, even.with today's state of the art, the auto industry could build cars that are virtually damn fool proof, but the car builderswould be worse off.than they are now. '._,. A similar article also appeared in: Oakland (CA) Tribune
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Satellite News (Washington, D.C.) Oct. 29, 1980 ---:-:=:::-.:.,__..., ... -c::::::-::-, OTA'S WARC '79 STUDY UNDERWAY; ADVISORY PANEL TO MEET IN NOVEMBER WARC '79 is the subject of a major study, now underway by the Of,f,ice ,.of. Te~lmology A~_sessment in response to congressional requests issued about a year ago. The project director of the study, Ray Crowell, has called an advisory panel meeting for Nov. 14 at the OTA offices on Capitol Hill to review the plan to "address impacts associated with the final acts of the WARC '79 Conference." The panel will look at "alternative arrangements" for managing the radio frequency spectrum today and in preparation for future international conferences. In OTA's project proposal for the WARC study, the OTA staff expresses concern over an apparent trend by many of the developing countries "to establish an 'a priori' division of the geostationary satellite orbit and spectrum allocation without regard to need or potential use of these resources." Because of this, OTA proposes to assess "the U.S. posture vis-a-vis other countries and groups of countries," It also plans to look at the workability of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU)--the international body which allocates radio frequencies. OTA will analyze ITU in its present state, in "a modified structure" and will also look at what an alternative to its present 1-nation, 1-vote structure might be. (OTA, 600 Pennsylvania Ave., SE, Washington, DC, 202/226-2240.) ---
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)7 Office of Technology Assessrrienf finishing Up Overview of EFT By JEFFREY KUT\ER WASHINGTON The Congressional Office _of _i:echnology Assess_ment has moved. into the penurtimale phase of its research into electronic funds transfer systems without having convinced either bankers or consumer advocates !hat its final report will be well-reasoned and un biased. The study, under way since early 1979 at the behest of several committees of the House and Senate, re-inflamed some of the hostilities between proand anti-HT forces that had subsided since the National Commission on Electronic Fund Transfers completed its final report in the fall of 1977. Controversies and confrontations bet. ween the two factions, simmering since late last year when the tesearch arm-of Congress was forced by budgetary con siderations to scale down an ambitious study plan, boiled over on July 18 when members of the study's advisory commit: tee met at OTA offices here. Zal ~havell, director of the EFT study, had pledged to be as eveh-handed as possible in developing a report on the status of consumer-oriented EFT systenJs, the salient public policy issues and poten tial legislative options open to Congress. Hoping to complete a draft _repo~t within the next two months, Mr. Shavell faces the difficult if not Impossible task of reconcil ing basic differences in outlook between banking industry and consumer interests. Those differences, Intractable as they appear to be, could conceivably have paralyzed pTA's already much-delayed study proje~t. But it has become a fact of life with which Mr. Shavell and other staff members have learned to live. "lt's,a difficult thing, but that's fine-' as long as all the views are out in -lhe open and nobody feels shut out," the study director commented recently. Jhe July 18 me~tlng was called to discuss an outline prepared by ot A and based on the results of three research studies it had contracted om. Some of the banking in dustrv representatives on the 19-member advisory panel, led by Robert C. Zimmer, general counsel of the Electronic Money Council, had been warning for several. months that the OT A's findings were going to be. highly and unjustly critical of EFT development arid would encourage over reaction and over-regulation by law makers. Mr. Zimmer, Michael A. Levine, vice president of Citibank NA, and Jerome Svigals of lniernational Business Machines Corp; sat at one corner of the rectangular conference table and stood up for what : they ,aw as a procompetitive attitude toward' EFT '-meaning minimal government interference in innovation which should be governed by the marketplace. These articulate spokesmen were the most. vocal 01 about a half-dozen panel members who supported the pro-EFT viewpoint, althougli they would argue that, in reality, they are also pro-consumer. They met their match in ~embers of the academic community who warned of adof two scheduled during the EH study's life. It was that the people who had given of their time and mental energies to par ticipate as advisers to Mr. Shavell were wasting their efforts. Problems from the Start The Office of Technology Assessment has not enjoyed smooth sailing ever since it got involved in the EFT field, which bankers and consumer advocates alike consider to be highly sensitive in its political and economic implicationt The EFT study is just one of three components of a wider inquiry into The Societal Impact of National Information Systems. The others concern the computerized criminal histories maintained by Federal and state law enforcement agencies, and electronic message systems tied in with the future role of the United States Postal Service. The three inquiries are going to be tied together by a_n "overview assessment" because they are interrela_ted. For exam ple, a heavy reliance by consumers on electronic bill payment methods could greatly reduce mail volume which could in verse cqnsequences, especially in terms of security and individual privacy threats, if HT were allowed to develop free of government oversight. James Rule, professor of sociology at State University of New York at Stony Brook, Lance Hoffman, associate professor of computer sdence at George Washingtoi1 University, and Rob Kling, a computer science professor at the Universiiy of California -at Irvine stood up for the consumer-protection role of turn cause the unemployment of many of the unskilled workers now employed by the Postal Service. In addition, privacy con siderations pervade all discussions relating to public policy in the realm of a government. / There was a f.:ird point of view which surfaced during the discussion, the se~ond computer-dependent society. The Office of Technology Assessment is a servant of Congress. It is not partisan and is beholden to a 12-memberboard six from each house of Congress of which Rep. Morri~k. Udall,D., Ariz., is chairman. I t_(See OTA on Page 50)
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Debate for a Decade: Sea Technology (Arlington, VA) October 1980 Ocean Margin The Drilling Progra_l!l by Eric Bender As8ociate Editor If all goes well for the Ocean Margin Drilling Program (OMDP), the converted Glomar Explorer will begin to drill the first hole in three-km.deep waters off western Costa Rica in January 1984, In th~.followingsix years OMDPwilldrillabout one dozen more deepwater holes, most in sediments requiring offshore drilling equipment far more capable than any now in use. The program may dominate marine geology and geophysics well into the 1990s. An aggressive, highly complex, expensive and controversial program, OMDP would split costs estimated at over $400 million (in 1980 dollars) evenly between government and the oil industry. Formally proposed by the National Science Founda tion (NSF) last January, OMDP seems to be gathering the necessary support from Congress and a handful of oil firms. Although billed as a scientific _program, OMOP will also pro vide spinoffs in technology development and some indirect resource assessment. But some prominent scientists say the whole program is radically flawed. Movinc Beyond the Deep Sea Drilllnc Program Since 1968 the Deep Sea Drilling Program (DSDP) drillship Glomar Explorer has obtained deepwater seafloor samples worldwide during over _70 cruises. The Challenger's technical achievements include cores in the deepest water (7,050 m near the Marianas in 1978) and, starting two years ago, deployment of a Hydraulic Piston Corer which opened many doors in paleoclimatology. But DSDP's technical accomplishments are overshadowed by its dramatic scientific discoveries, which rewrote textbooks and made "highly successful" a cliche for the program. DSDP provided the strongest evidence for the plate tect!?nics model now generally accepted as a theoretical framework for crustal dynamics. DSDP both corroborated theories and obtained critical data which otherwise were unavailable. In the mid-1970s, with DSDP in its International Phase of Ocean Drilling (IPOD), planning began for a successor. The Joint Oceanographic Institutions for Deep Earth Sampling (JOIDES), which had sparked DSDP in the early l 960s and acts as scientific advisor, in March 1977 convened a group in Woods Hole, Mass. to make recommendations for the next decade. These were published as wrhe Future of Scientific Ocean Drilling" (FUSOD), the first milestone on the way to OMDP. With plate tectonics well established, marine geologists and geophysicists placed increased emphasis on the study of ocean continent boundaries and crustal dynamics, particularly ocean margins (also called continental margins, depending on pers pective). However, the thick sediments covering margins posed the risk of hydrocarbon deposits. The Glomar Challengerdrills without a riser (a pipe surrounding the drill string which allows circulation of drilling fluids), blowout preventer and other gear required for optimal well control. As the FUSOD report notes, "many otherwise drillable locations had to be passed over because of the hazards of possibly encountering petroleum bearing horizons without adequate protective facilities." The Challenger, not suited for conversion to a riser system, also could not operate in waters with ice or severe environmen tal conditions. The FUSOD report called for an improved drilling vessel, the most likely candidate being the Glomar Explorer. The Explorer, a highly advanced 188-m ship built to recover remnants of a sunken Russian submarine, was then (as now) laid up in California. Still owned by the government, it presumably could be transferred to NSF free. Preliminary engi neering studies indicated that it would be suitable for conver sion to a drillship. The FUSOD report recommended continuing Challenger operations for seven years and, overlapped with this, six years of riser drilling by the converted Explorer. Budget estimates ranged up to $423.8 million for a ten-year program. Presenting this ambitious plan, FUSOD added a cautionary note which would be repeated many times over the following years: drilling should not begin unless adequate funding was assu1ed for a complete integrated scientific program,.including sufficient preparatory geophysical surveys. JOIDES and Joint Oceanographic Institutions (JOI) Inc. (a Washington organization representing ocean research groups) continued to refine this proposal. Additional engineering stu dies examined the proposed conversion of the Explorer. In 1978 an NSF committee chaired by Bruno Giletti reviewed the FUSOD report, endorsing the program but calling for greater emphasis on ocean crust and paleoclimatology research. The National Research Council's Ocean Science Board in 1976 began an investigation, chaired by Shell's Albert Bally, of geology and geophysics research needs on the continental mar gin. The results, finally published in 1979, were not so favorable to the FU SOD option. "Our recommendations concerning sed iment dynamics, domestic traverses, and outfitting modern geophysical vessels have a higher priority and are more impor tant for the healthy growth of our continental-margin research efforts than drilling plans, which we rank as only second priority." A second ("Blue Ribbon j NSF committee also reviewed the proposed program (by now known as OMDP although not restricted exclusively to ocean margins) and in July 1979 enthu siastically recommended it as a national priority for scien tific, technology development and resource assessment reasons. This committee added that costs would bear close scrutiny but were small in terms of offshore exploration ( estimated costs for offshore U.S. drilling from 1977 to 1982 total $39 billion). However, in summer 1979 the budget requirements were high enough to prod the government, under the leadership of presi dential science advisor Frank Press, to talk seriously with industry about cost-sharing. In October 1979 representatives from industry and academia met and designed a model scien tific program which included 11 drilling sites. But revised engi~ neering costs presented at another session later in the month
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American Seaport (Washington, D.C.) September 1980 Spea~ng Tube Paul A. Amundsen From where we sit, it has been perfectly obvious for some time that United States ports are facing an enor mous near-future demand for facilities. The developing economies of an expanded world population have received wordage in this space from time to time in recent years as the basic indicator, along with a general broaden ing of world markets. As I have said before, the many fold increases of the post-WW II era are but a beginning. Now things are getting a bit more specific. Mar Ad expects a U.S. port facilities expenditure of $3.4 billion in the 1979183 period. A world coal study among 16 major coal producing and consuming countries says that capital requirements at U.S. ports for coal facilities could amount to as much as one billion 1979 dollars over the next several decades. The United States is the leading source of world coal. Against coal exports, LNG imports may rise more than 100 percent by the mid-1990s, according to yet another study by the U.S. Office of Technology Assess ment. At issue here is whether LNG terminal develop ment will be permitted a meaningful resumption. It has been brought to a virtual halt by drawn-out regulatory procedures. LNG terminal development is, of course, a supreme example of strangulation by red tape, rivalling the Sohio Terminal Project which died in California from similar causes. And as with gas and liquid petroleum. the world coal people are aware. It is noted in their study that regulatory and institutional factors "could be the most significant constraints to expanding existing ports or con structing new ones". Also aware is the American Association of Port Authorities, which has activated a "U.S. Coordinating Com mittee", centering on the fact that many U.S. ports are having to turn away business because terminal facilities and navigational projects have been delayed by the federal permitting process. The committee notes that many business and labor groups are impacted when a U.S. port authority is unable to develop in a manner necessary to service current and future foreign trade volume. lt will seek legislative relief from developmental constraints as one of its primary objectives. And so, predictably, we are at collision at every level of cargo with a multi-layered regulatory system function ing in restraint of a basic national and world require ment for U.S. port facilities. It is a system without pur pose or meaning. The basic issue of primary port uses has long been settled in our port areas, which are. dedi cated to commerce and navigation. To reaffirm that dedication through each and every individual permit is an exercise in absurdity that should be done away with as promptly as possible, in the public interest.
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OTA (Continued from page 50} C,_., are public policy decisions. Irvine Research, he said, created in its narrative a "technological bogey-man". which it can use to "tell us why it is EFT not credit judgnients, not poverty, not minority status that bears the responsibili(y for future possible equity and poverty problems." Prof. Rule of State University of New York accused Mr. Zimmer of being un ethical in.complaining that Irvine Research was proceeding on the premise that EFT threatens to be a "monolithic, new and dangerous service." Prof. King of Irvine Research defended his product, saying "we came at the equity question in an tin .biased way" and adding "Mr. Zimmer Just doesn't want any ants at his picnic." In the end, Mr. Zimmer ~nd the ElecIronic Money Council wrote Mr. Shavell to thank him for listening to the "spirited ex change" of July 18, but they stuck by their earlier complaints about the equity sec tion. A statement by Mf. McHenry issued before the meeting said that the report is "unresponsive to Ifie mandate for such a study from Congress, inadequate in its assimilation and interpretation of data, and wholly inaccurate in iis conclusions/' Mr. iversity professor and chairman of the EFT is said to place ,;great emphasis" on the McHenry has since promised to "continue advisory panel, praised Irvine Research for EFT study,, which Is heartening to staff to monitor developments in the teport doing "ground breaking" work on equity members: ~nd to communicate any concerns." but he said the report suffered from a high Among members of the advisory panel, The other side had its ~wn gripes. In a '.'level or abstraction" lacking specific exthere is skepti~ism .about the value of written comment, Prof. Rule said the Irvine amples and iliustrations a complaint whatever OT A will produce. Several report on privacy and equity was less somewhat similar to Mr. Zimmer's. representatives of banking industry in"superficial and narrow" than the Imperial terests think it will be of little value, still report.on privacy, However,' both reports Trying lo finish 'overshadowed by the more comprehenfailed to deal with what Mr. Rule sees as .,., Besieged by all of the pros and cons and sive work done by the EFT commission in the overriding social issue associated. with trying to separate the valid from the self( the same areas of concern. The Electronic EFT: "who is to have access to the personal serving, Mr. Shavell, other directors of the Money Council position is that any value information generated by these systems?" National Information Systems studies, staff the study has is likely to be negative. No longer, he'said, do promoters of EFT writers and top management of the Office The,outline Mr. Shavell unveiled in midsay that all payment data would be held _of Technology Assessment are trying to July wa_s described as "a first c1,tt,' not a completely confidential. Intrusions by the complete their fina.l drafts without finished document. It will not survive the Internal Revenue Service and law enforcealienating any c,onstituency represented day/' he said. He was right. Major revisions ment agencies seeking to "search the EFT on the advisory panels -:-unless they truly are in the works, but how close they will networks" raise privacy,'questions, he said. deserve to be alienated. come to what l:MC would like to see is a Jeremiah S. Gutman, a New York civil Mr. Shavell promised from the start to matter for speculation. liberties lawyer, also commented, make an unbiased assessment, hearing all' Mr. Shavell is aiming to complete his "Nowhere did .1 see any discussion of the sides of the relevant issues and "letting the draft in November, then to circulate itcivil libertarian position that information chips fall where they may." In the course within OTA and among outsiders for collected for one purpose should never, of his year and a half as study director, his final comm.ents leading t9 publication of without the consent of the subject and the budget was. cut back, giving him cona formal documer1t next spring. source, be used for any other purpose." siderably less leverage in trying to produce Whatever happens with the EFT study, it Mr. Gutman is a member of the advisory a document acceptable to a broad con_.is merely a "preliminary assessment." This committee but was unable to attend the sensus. On the other har1d, John H. Gibmeans there will be more comp~ehensive July 18 public -meeting. bons recentiy took over as director of the. inquiries ahead. They may help keep the Kent W. Colton, a Brigham Young Un Office of Technology Asse~~menti and he Electronic Money Council in business, a j
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Matters of equity. The question here is whether s6me segments of society might be exduded from access to olc:t or new payment systems as a result of high costs or financial institution marketing policies. Irvine Research Corp.'s answer was : "probably not," but the way it arrived at this conclusion disturbed the bankers. This caused the most heated debate at the July 18 panel meeting. As OTA interpreted it, lrvioeResearch defined equity as "a concept of fairness equality of access to. resources; all users can obtain a-product under uniform con ditions." The researchers had to determine whether there would be discrimination or exdusion of some socio-economic groups as a result of actions of financial institutions in the area of EFT, and whether differences between societal groupings such as rich and poor, at?le-bodied and handicapped are exacerbated by EFT as a measure of status.. ----: ... UbTdy Theory:. ,, The conc~t \,f .equity "does not imply ,.,that all {EFTl .services' will. be universally / available HoweYer~ .. it, may be that. SOIT!e services shour& be universally available, at least on the basis of equity considera tions," Mr. Shavell'soutline said-It went. on to liRen _prospective government regulation of electronic funds transfer facilities to that of telephone and electric power utilities. "At least partially on.-the basis of equity," Irvine concluded, government decided that affordable telephoneand power service should be extended to the most remote parts of the country. Bankers bristled at the sugges_tion of utility-type regulation of EFT. The actual conclusion reached by Irvine, which appeared at the end of OT A's 29page section of the outline on equity, was that "there is likely to be little if any impact onequity from EFT," so [orig as people / have freedom' to choose between alter native payment methods. Those choices are expected to be abundant for the rest of the century because "EFT will not become dominant in any area;" the report said. Although he concurred with the Elec tronic Money ~ouncil's complaints about Irvine'sallege9 lack of objectivity in preparing its hypotheses, Mr .. Levine of CJ!ibank asked for this relatively pro-EFfc:or:iclusion to be more prominently dis played in the front of, the final report. There is a feelingthat harried members of Congress or their staff assistants will not have time to read through the fII report, which could ruri 125 pages. Although-the final conclusion on equity is appa,:ently_ benign, Mr: ZimfT!er said it came at the end of"a brief for retarding EFT-based senrices built upon specious arguments and blatant biases.''. "The senior partner in the Washington firm of Zimmer, Egge and Sisk objected to the "utility pholosophy (which) runs through this entire discussion." He sees EFT as analogous to power lines and phone lines, not to the broad concepts of electric power and telephone availability w_hich C,J.see OTA on Page 53)
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that members of Congress ~9uld take "doomsday scenarios" from the final report and translate them into legislation which could hinder if not destroy the EFT movement. Mr. Zimmer,Mr. Levine and Wendell McHenry Jr., president of the EMC, tri_ed to get their point across to fv)r. Shavell in private discussions and were unable to get assurances that the, study would be broadened. They went public with their complaints after the first requests for proposal went out to-contractors in Sep tember; and they were still upset about the studys direction when Mr. Shavell revised the RFPs in December. Still Seen as Narrow Unchanged was the concentration on three issues security, privacy and equity which could be seen as related to EFT and to. either aspects of the computerscommunication age. -Mien H. Upis, a member of the EFT stucfy's-advisory panel and president of _Electronic Banking lric..of Atlanta, who has been. involved in EFT research projects since-the early 1970s, was asked to prepare' -a--'.'l>aseline study" for--OTA. It projected growth. of automated _teller machine, -~ point-of-sale terminal and. automated clearing house systems through 1995 ac cording. to three alternative_ scenarios: high, moderate and low growth rates. These projections were handed over to OTNs other two contractors. Imperial Computer Services Inc., Torrance; Calif;, did the study of sec:urity_threats in EFT systems. Irvine Research Corp., consulting venture of several University of California professors including Mr. Kling of the OTA advisory panel, was assigned the privacy and equity portions of the assessment. The three outside consultan!S' reports were circulated among advisory committeemembers before they met to discuss theOT A's draft outline, based on the reports;qn July 18. Already, the battle lines were drawn between the consumer ad vocates in the academic community, ._ among_ them Mr; Kling and John Leslie King of Irvine Research Corp., and the electronic banking advocates led by Mr. Zimmer and _Mr. Levine of the Electric ~-. Money Council; with Howard Marr-_ deJbaum of M~nufacturers Hanover Trust Co. and the Electronic Funds Transfer ~ssociation sometimes irt a supporting.' ~&. Th.e day-long panel meeting of July 18 was merel)I a public showdown for what had been expressed previously. Most of the participan,:5 diplomatically look back on ,t as a constructive exchange of -~iews,: but in_fact there was a good deal of 1~v~1ve d~ring the exch!3nges and it is d1ff1cult to imagine how it will influence Mr. Shavell as he draws closer to drafting a final report to Congress. These.were some. o( the points of argu ment between members of the commit tee: Definitional questions, Several of the banking industry representatives criticized how some of theterms were bandied about.. Even the use of "EFT" was a problem. The draft outline followed Irvine Research ~rp.'s tack of considering EFT to be an entirely new service, while Mr. Zim mer ar~ued thar it _is, in fact, a delivery me~ham~m~for services already in place. Calling_ 1t .a new service invites over. regulation, he warned. Forty-five pages of the 140-page-draft outline were devoted to an_overview of EFT and various definitions and it was suggested that this could b~ relegated to an appendix so as not to take co~gressmen's attention away from the mam body of the report. Security evaluations. In the section of the report based on the worlrof Imperial Computer Services anoJohn 8. Benton its s7nior "'.ice president and former executive director of the National EFT Commission opposition _came not from one of th~ bankfng industry advotates but from Donn 8.-tarker, t_he computer security authority affrhated wrth SRI International: Mr. Parker -said ~e c_oul?lls~oot holes throughout the .. sec~rity outline, b,ecause it did not pay at tention to all' aspects of computer crime such as the skills, knowledge and resources available to a computer professional who might be willing to risk breaking the law. Mr. Parker was asked to "edit" the outline to suit his purposes and submit it to OT A as one of the "inputs" into the final section on security.
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so OTA .. .~. -(Continued from page 2) Although it must dig deeply into issues of concern to its masters on Capitol Hill, the OTA never hands down policy recom mendations. Its conclusions are restricted to options available in t~e legislative sphere and scenarios which might follow any of those options. Alt.hough the agency is nominally non political; political considerations are brought to bear on the OT A's activities. In the case of the National Information Systems assessments,. reqh'ests for data came from the Senate committees on Judiciary,_ Commerce, Science and Transportation,: and from the _House co~~ mittees. on Judiciary, Post Office and C1v1l Service, and Interstate ancfForeign Com merce. This orientation neces59rily in. fluenced the direction the EFT study took. Internally, the technology office was not blessed with staff members who were ex pert _iii the intricacies and sensitfyities of the electi-o-nic funds transfer phenomenon .. This-led' r. shavell, _a ,,:chemicat_engmeer by trade, to take his ':: charge from Congress and consult with in-;;:dividuals -and groups inierested: in Efl'._. related issues. Following a meeting of his advisory panel in May~ 1979, .Mt. Shavell came. up with a study design which gave the project a reputation as-a complete _in-. quiry into the implications of EfT, taking up wher.e: the National Co_mmissi?n left . It was an auspicious beginning:.. But OT A has several dozen such projects under way at any given time and limited money and staff resources to carry. them out, -Mr. Shavell's budget was cut severely and the EFT project had to be delayed arid s,!:aled down. By last fall when he sent out re quests .for proposals f~m independent researchers to do contract work for OT A, Mr. Shavell had-only abouf$30,000 to pay them for less than a half-year's work com pared _with the $2 million and two years spent by th.e N~_tioi:ial Commission on EFT. -Enter the EMC Cognizant of who in Congress was seek ing data on EFT, Mr. Shavell and his OT A ~pervisors decided to drop plans to com pile a data ~e o_f E~ ~ro~rams currently _?ffered by financial 1nst1tut1ons in the u ri~ted States, and instead focus on' three issues of speci~I conc~rii to the Judiciary and Post Office committees: security privacy, ~nd equity-of EFT systems. Othe; a_reas of mterest were to be covered if staff tl~e and-.resources could be found, but this was ne~~ considered likely. That d~s,on was made .about a year. ago and 1t was then that Mr. Zimmer and the Electronic Money Council, an EFT ad vocacy group-oased in Washington, began t~ flex their muscles. The EMC _was formed thre~ years ago to educate legislators and the public on the prospective benefits of electronic banking. Ba~ed by Citibank of. New York, First National Ba9k of Chicago and others who thought they had a community of. interest on the matt.er, _the EMC wrote a "con sumer bill of ri_g~ts" which closely followed the National Commission's recommendations, and sef out to com municate those-rights and other positive aspects .of EFT thJough films, advertising and personal appearances by official spokesmen. __ The council's high-budget public educa tion campaign could be financed only if it could attract membership from throughout the banking and equipment manu_facturing industries. Although EMC has signed several big-city and regional banks, IBM Corp. and NCR Corp., its total membership today is 27. BankAmerica Corp. and American Telephone & :e!egraph Co., among others, chose to JOIO the Electronic F-unds Transfer Association, a rival group with a lower budget which concentrated on holding EFT industry conferences and es tablishing a dialog with congressional staf-fers. The Office of Technology Assessment's move to. cut back its EFT research gave the Electronic Money Council an opportunity to assume a new and more visible role as ~dvocate for the electronic funds transfer industry. The group was concerned that the focus on security, privacy and equity issues. would be negative and would unfairly divert attention from the substantive benefits EFT might bring~ to consumers. 1'!1e real danger, they thoug~t, would be
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were just too high. The government then proposed an effort with a total of six holes. This proposal did not fly either but scientists at a December meeting recommended a new research program which began to draw support. OMDP was formally announced as a budget initiative in January 1980, with cost estimated at $700 million (allowing for inflation) split half-and-half with industry. About 80 scientists and engineers from 19 academic institu tions; nine oil companies and three government agencies met in Houston last March and hammered out the backbone of OMDP's present plan. A draft status report based on this was published in July and will be discussed below. However, pro gram managers caution that this draft plan was finished too quickly and will be revised into another plan scheduled for presentation in November. "One of the Last Geolopc Fronden on the Earth" OMPP will both carry on DSDP-type research and emphas ize stW11es _01 ocean margins "one of the last geologic frontiers on the earth .. as former NSF director Richard Atkinson remarks in the draft plan. '"The task of OMDP will be to fill in the gap in our knowledge that exists between the deep-sea floor investigated by the Glomar Challenger and studies of the continental shelves being conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey and the petroleum industry," the draft plan notes. (NSF hopes to acquire some data sets which industry considers proprietary, although some observers doubt much will be available.) The plan divides scientific objectiV!=S into four sometimes overlapping areas: passive margins (formed at divergent tee-, tonic plate boundaries and not associated with significant seismic and volcanic activity), active margins (formed at convergent plate boundaries and associated with intense seis mic and volcanic activity), 0<:ean crust and paleoenvironment. The Pacific is largely surrounded by active margins, the Atlantic by passive margins. A tentative drilling effor.t includes ten sites: off western Costa Rica, mid-Atlantic trench, Weddell Sea (six relatively shallow holes), offshore New Jersey, Moroc can margin, North Atlantic mid-ocean, south central Gulf of Mexico, east of Barbados, offshore New Jersey again and sou theast (}ulf of Mexico. Engineering estimates give a 95% confidence factor for com pleting the entire program within six years. (They note however, that downhole programs which are likely to significantly reduce this percentage cannot be reliably quantified.) On most holes, about 30% of the core length will be retrieved. OMDP's first three holes will be drilled withouta riser. Deepest water depth drilled with the riser system is almost four km, in the south central Gulf of Mexico. The Explorer would take almost an entire year to drill the second hole offshore New Jersey. The tenth and last hole would be finished in 1989, although if the program is successful it presumably will con tinue into the next decade. NSF plans to set up a separate deep sea drilling division (under: the Directorate for Atmospheric, Earth and Ocean Sciences) to manage this ambitious effort. All funds (S3.6 mil lion in 1980, Sl0 million in 1981) will funnel through this division. Industry shares (based on each company's U.S. oil production) wil provide the second half offunding, under coop erative one-year agreeme~ts. At press time, OMDP planners could not name the eight companies which would be the min imum for participation in fiscal year 1981, but expressed confi dence that eight would sign up. Once agreements between NSF and industry are signed, JOI Inc. will formally establish a Scientific Advisorv Committee (continued on page 28) (Continued from paKe 27) (now operating informally) with a substructure often regional and technical Planning Advisory Committees. These committees will include members of industry, academia and government. A prime task in the next year is to synthesize geophysical data for potential drill sites, Necessary additional geophysical surveys will begin late next year. When the program is well underway, NSF hopes to include international "This Is Not A Scientific Program" Despite years of painstaking" preparation and the support of the government's scientific hierarchy. many scientists see severe flaws in OMDP, The reasons lie in a complex maze of questions. ls the program (as billed) primarily scientific?' Are the government funds truly Madd-on" to the NSF budget? What will be the final costs and scientific benefits? What should industrys role be? The U.S, Geological Survey (USGS), which made a well-publicized announcement last year about possible petroleum deposits in a deep east coast reef. is synthesizing its relevant geophysical data for OMDP. Other USGS participation is unclear. The Department of Energy ( DOE) may also play a role but its intentions. if any. remain secret. (One NSF manager remarks rather kindly that "they haven't found themselves yet in this area,"} USGS and DOE will not contribute funds because of an administration decision to simplify management and congressional jurisdictions. .garticipation, Canada, France. Germany, Japan. Mexico and the United Kingdom have. been invited to join. (Russia. a DSDP sponsor. has not.) However. several scientists told ST that other countries are leery of OMDP because of high costs. U.S. slant and possible resource aspects. Drilling Thick Sediments Under Water Four-km Deep The world's record water depth for riser drilling is about two km. OMDP"s greatest water depth drilled with a riser will be almost four km. Greatest seafloor penetration will be six km (as one review noted. "'this penetration is still a hurdle in drilling on dry land,"), So the required ship and planning are not exactly off-the shelf items. The necessary planning began more than five years ago. The best engineering advice says that technical problems will not stop the program if enough time and money is available, In May the congressional _Q({i,.\=_ 2~. Technology Assessment (OTA) -------. (coiiiinuea on page 33)
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V OMDP (Continued from page 28) published yet another OMDP report, this one evaluating the scientific plan and possible alternatives. While the report draws heavily on scientists who previously criticized the program, it points out some widespread concern. The OT A study says that the Houston scientific plan "is a distinct improvement over previous ocean margin drilling plans. The plan is, however, a considered compromise which was developed considering such constraints as the use of an Explorer-type vessel and drilling only in water deeper than 1830 m. While most scientists agree that the compromise is a reasonable one given the constraints, many question the wisdom of the constraints." Potential cost overruns also trouble many scientists. "Engineers and scientists will undoubtedly need to make compromises as the program proceeds which may result in either lowering of the ultimate scientific objectives or significant cost escalations. Both academic and industrial scientists are concerned that additional costs to develop deep drilling technology could be diverted from other science funds, M according to the OT A report. One prominent geologist told ST that verbal guarantees against cost overruns are worthless because the people who made the guarantees probably won't be running the program when the crunch comes. Another noted that cost estimates had crept up almost $ I 00 million in the last year. ("A hundred million here, a hundred million there, and you begin to get into real money.") OT A also summed up the strongest single criticism: "there is not a broad scientific consensus on the present program. ff ST asked a number of well known scientists about such a consensus and discovered (as Exxon's Terry Gardner pointed out) that the question was almost meaningless at the present time. Although many scientists would not make statements for the record, they presented an extremely broad range of views. Several scientists enthusiastically endorsed OMDP. Two others made the same flat statement: "this is not a scientific program". Many researchers expressed concern that OMDP would mean the phaseout of Challenger drilling at a time when excellent scientific problems exist and some breakthroughs are being made. The OTA report's panel members suggested a number of alternatives: slow the program schedule, concentrate drilling on the U.S. margins, start with a multi-year high resolution program for deep seismic profiling. Academic scientists largely backed the recommendations of the Bally report (with their geophysics emphasis), which have mostly been honored in the breach. Industry also has mixed feelings about OMDP and shares similar concerns about scientific approach and cost overruns. Persuading the necessary eight companies to participate apparently is a ticklish job. Most of the major companies are abstaining from the first cooperative year, which begins this month. Exxon, which will participate, currently plans to pull out next year. Joseph Carter, Gulf's Senior Vice President for Exploration and Technology, wrote OT A that "the scope of the Program is too thinly dispersed to add very much to the general knowledge of our country's resource base ... Develop ment of riser technology to drill the abyssal deep within the next ten years is much too soon in our opinion. We do not foresee the industry being anywhere near ready to explore at such depths, must less to have the technology to produce hydrocarbons from them in that time frame." A proposal by Hollis Hedberg of Princeton University has gained much support. Hedberg recommends a cooperative effort among petroleum companies to explore (and develop) out to the base of the continental shelf. Government would lease huge deepwater tracts and give industry "direct on structure drilling on already granted lease acreage which, if successful, could be followed promptly by production devdopment." Government agencies could joint the exploratory consorita as paying members. JOIDES institutions could participate at no cost. "If it's successful, it's well worth the gamble" At press time both Congress and industry seemed ready to assure fiscal year 1981 support for OMDP. But Peter Wilkniss, NSF Ocean Sediment Coring Program Manager, says that "we could still lose everything for the program; we've had a lot of surprises lately. There are some hard decisions coming up this fall.,. Answering critics, Wilkniss pointed out that within the next year crucial progress will be made in both science and technology plans. As far as cost overruns go. Wilkniss maintains that "it is a misconception that 0 MD P is so large. H He points out that through 198 the Challenger effort will cost about $200 million. The federal half share for OM DP will beat the same basic level. If the program looks as if it will intrude into other funds, it will not be approved. Technical program manager Sherwood adds that a careful planning process will avoid overruns and that NSF will maintain options with reduced costs (such as reduced water depth or drilling one less riser hole). Wilkniss also says that fears of stopping Hydraulic Piston Corer (HPC) research are "absolutely wrong." He remarks that the corer, while important, addresses only a certain fraction of marine geology/ geophysics scientific problems and that ~in less than ideal conditions it does not get very good cores". The Explorer will deploy the corer for both scientific and engineering reasons. A string of reports concluded that the Glomar Explorer (with its heavy lift capacity, dynamic positioning and high degree of stability) will be a suitable drill vessel, although conversion may cost about $100 million. Since fall 1979 Santa Fe Engineering Services, Orange, Cal., has been OMDP's System Support contractor, planning for the Explorer's conversion. construction of a drilling system, and other details. Santa Fe is now starting its second year of preliminary engineering designs. Wilbur Sherwood, NSF's technical manager for OMDP, says that the technical program should be fine tuned by next year, with a good baseline design and risk/ cost assessment available by next summer. The Explorer would drill with a maximum drillstring length of IO km. The ship would carry a crew of 134 (32 in the scientific party) and 1,100 cubic meters of laboratory space. It would be strengthened for an ABS Class C ice rating. Normal drilling would take place in up to 4-m waves, 45-knot winds and 1.8-knot total surface currents. Even the Explorer's dynamic positioning system does not meet these criteria. Santa Fe recommends adding four retractable thrusters (two on the centerline at each end of the original moonpool) and fitting the main propellers with Kort Nozzles.
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OMDP's drilling systems will be as conventional as possible. The riser system will include a partially buoyant steel riser, upper and lower flex joints, upper telescopic joint and riser tensioning ring, and riser tensioners (which will handle almost one million kg in standby mode). Each 19-m riser joint, with buoyancy modules, will weight about 15.4 tons. Almost 200 joints will be deployed in the greatest water depths. A free-standing riser disconnect system would allow operators, in sudden storms, to disconnect the riser at a point about 150 m below the ship (this is not at all existing deepwater practice). Early next year NSF will put out Requests for Proposals for a System Integration Contractor (SIC), responsible for final design, Explorer conversion, equipment construction and operations. U.S. offshore operators and perhaps federally-oriented contractors will bid. With RFP replies in by June 1981, OMDP should move into a second phase of conversion and equipment procurement around the start of fiscal year 1982. In the current schedule, the Explorer is delivered in October 1983 and begins operations in January 1984. The draft technical report estimates total program costs through 1989 at $493 million in 1980 dollars, up from previous /\ estimates slightly over $400 million. Managers emphasize, however, that this latest estimate was made under severe time pressure and will be revised. The program will be r"configured if costs remain too high. The $493 million estimate does not include three possible options: three (rather than one) supply vessels ($34.4 million), helicopter crew service ($48.5 million) and completion of the last hole ($13.5 million). Drilling equipment costs are inflating about 2:5% per year at present. Charles Drake, Dartmouth College. reflecting on past successes of the field, with acceptance of plate tectonics and other advances, mused, "How can you follow an act like that?" Perhaps the best quick summary of OMDP was offered by John Ewing, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, who chaired a general scientific pane! at the Houston meeting. After discussing some possible flaws with ST, Ewing said simply that OMDP is a gamble. "If it's successful, it's we!! worth that gamble."
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Land (Mankato, MN) Oct. 23, 1980 Bill to limit antibiotics in feed is considered By Pre8ton Lerner Medill News Service WASHINGTON -Despite language in the Agriculture Appropriations Bill for the last three years prohibiting the Food and Drug Adminisg-ation (FDA} from limit ing the use of antibiotics in allimal feed, a bill to let the agency do just that has been introduced in the House. But both supporters and critics of the bill, written by Rep. John Dingell (D-Mich. ), see no hope for its pas sage this legislative session and predict a protracted power struggle if and when it is reintroduced next year. At hearings held in the Interstate and Foreign Com merce Subcommittee on Human Health in June, FDA officials, with Agriculture Department (USDA) sup port, came out in favor of the bill, while meat, poultry and drug industry officials strongly criticized it. Subtherapeutic antibiotic use, which is designed to stimulate growth and to prevent rather than treat di sease, has been the subject of ongoing scientific controversy for more than a decade. The closest scrutiny has been given to penicillins and tetracyclines, the only drugs specifically mentioned in the bill. Animals consume roughly 40 percent of the ant~ biotics manufactured domestically, according to an_or_-fi~LT.echnological Assessment report. The drugs are used in the feed of nearly all poultry, 90 percent of hogs and veal calves and 60 percent of beef cattle raised in the United States. Scientists familiar with the subject are divided into two camps those who believe widespread subtherapeutic antibiotic use causes immunity to certain drugs in animals and that this immunity can be passed on to humans who eat their meat, and those who say further study is needed to prove this alleged correlation. The bill itself comes down heavily on the alrt>,ady proved-hazard side of the fence. "The continuous use of these (penicillin and tetracy cline) and other antibiotics in subtherapeutic amounts has resulted in the development of pathogenic bac-1 terias in animals that are singly and multipley resistant to such antibiotics," the bill ~ys. "Such pathogenic bacteria are then transmitted to humans where they colonize and cause diseases (such as meningitis, gonorrhea, salmonellosis) for whic~ there is virtually no effective antibiotic treatment," 1t continues. Bu~ oppo;1ents. of the bill accuse Dingell of "over s1mphfymg' the_ issue, quoting reports out of context and "':On~ullx. implying his position is supported by the sc1ent1f1c consensus. O!fice of Tec~ology findings are similar to the con clusions drawn ma National Academy of Sciences re-. port that states "the postulated hazard to human ~ealth from subtherapeutic use of antimicrobials in an imal feed were neither proven nor disproven. Hank_ Dausch, who helped prepare the FDA's hear-1:1g testlmonf, sa~d he doesn't expect any further ac tion on the bill this year, but he's optimistic about its c~ances m ~?e 97th Congress, in which Dingell is con sidered the heir apparent" to the chairmanship of the Interstate and Foreign Commerce Committee. But thoug~ Dingell has expr~ssed his willingness to butt_ head~ with the Appropriations Committee, many Capitol ~11! observers said he first will have to cross swords wtth the House Agriculture Committee which has shown little enthusiasm for the bill. 'Th~ bill was crafted to amend human health provi sions m order to keep it in the Interstate Commerce C~~:ttee :3-nd out,of the Agriculture Committee," one said. But if theres a groundswell of support for it I :,vo1;1ld_ e":pect the Agriculture Committee to claim joi~t Junsd1ct1on over the bill, Thou~h: thi~ ~ig~t not kill the bill, most observers agr_~ J?mt Junsdiction certainly would retard the ratification process. /
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Biddeford (ME) Journal Tribune Oct~ 23, 1980 Can Wall Street cash _in on genes? By RON SCHERER Business and Financial Correspondent of i,,. :::...
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Federation of American Hospitals Review (Little Rock, AK) September -October 1980 "' ... For some reasons which I can't understand, our solution to the problem is regulation rather than approaching the situation head-on and admit that we have not dealt with it intelligently.,., H. David Banta, M.D. Office of Technological Assessement H David Banta, M.D., health group manager of the Congressional Office ofJechnology Assessment(OTA), believes that there is a "fair amount" of inefficient regulation, but regulation per se is not hampering the advance of medical technology now. "However," he said, "if we really use regulation in a heavy-handed way, then I believe technological progress would suffer. "I am concerned about what would happen if we really strengthened the health planning and Professional Standards Review Organization (PSRO) program and if we used the Medicare program as a regulatory device. Then, we would face the risk of hurting the development of medical technology, and, also, we would run the risk of making a lot of mistakes, which would be -or could be -a detriment to the people as a whole." Dr. Banta, who is regarded as an outstanding futurist in the field of medical technology, said: "When you look at the different technologies and the way we use them and how rapidly they have come into use the CT scanner, coronary bypass surgery, etc. I don't have effective constraints on technological development. uncritical, and the incentives are crazy. "Then, for some reasons which I can't understand, our solution to the problem is regulation rather than approaching the situation head-on and admitting that we have not dealt with it intelligently. We must change the way that we pay for medical services. We must limit our budgets, and we must return to some degree of leanness and efficiency." Dr. Banta said that this country's propensity toward regulation as a cure-all should be surprising because of"our tradition of free enterprise." .. Yet," he commented, ''we are very proregulatory as a people. We associate socialized medicine with Europe. In my travels abroad, however, I have found that we are much more regulatory than most of the countries in Western Europe -and the people there see us that way. They think it is peculiar that, with our tradition of free enterprise, we turn to regulation for a solution. "In my opinion, the first thing we should do is question this practice ofturning to regulation for a solution and look for alternatives. I personally don't know what the alternatives might be. But, until we question the idea that regulation is a solution to everything, we are not going to be able to It is still a largely unfettered system. "We do have, however, an effective agency at the marketing level the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which requires proof of the efficacy and safety of the technology before it can be marketed. But once it is on the market, I don't believe there is an effective check from the point. "The FDA is a very blunt kind of instrument, and the FDA people are very well aware that they hold an almost life and death pool over the industry. If the industry can't market its products, it can go bankrupt. I find that the FDA people are very conscious of their role in the system, and I don't think that they are inappropriately tough in approaching those decisions." Dr. Banta, who has been with the OT A since 1975. believes that one of the major causes of the problem of rising health care costs is "how medical services are paid for." The fee-for-service system, he said, is "inherently one that causes more things to be done." "Everyone knows that piece work payment is used to get people to produce more, and there is no reason for physicians to behave any differently. The cost reimbursement system, as it has been developed in this country, is just completely effectively approach this problem." Looking at the other side of the coin, Dr. Banta forsees some dramatic developments in the field of medical technology. .. I believe," he said, "that we are going to greatly expand our capabilities for organ transplants for machine re placements such as the artifical heart and the artifical kidney. "Some of the brain research that is going on now is very exciting. We are going to have the capability of altering moods much more sharply than we can now. Of course, people always have changed their mood with alcohol or other kinds of drugs. But I believe that we can have a happiness pill -or think deeply pill. We likely will be able to manipulate the metabolism of our brain, probably within the next IO to 15 years. "Another area that we really haven't faced up to in health care yet is in the computer. I believe that the computer has so much to offer in terms of obtaining, storing and dissemi nating information, especially for management. In my opinion, the whole health care area actually is primitive in its dealing with information. "l believe that we are going to have a real explosion in this area as computers get smaller. cheaper and better. "O
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Risk assessment's role in regulation debated The difficulty of determining what health or environmental risks, if any, arise from use of a.new chemical has become a real gremlin in the work of federal regulators, chemical com panies, scientists, and even judges. Aside from the troublesome me chanics of risk assessment, however, there are questions, serious ones, about evaluation of risks when ex perts disagree, or when the public's perception of risk is at odds with the apparent facts. Also, once it is deter mined there is a risk, there is the question of which branch of govern ment has the final responsibility for deciding how much of that risk soci ety should bear. Should it be Con gress or the courts? At the Sixth Symposium on Sta tistics & the Environment, held by the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences, a number of people actively involved in risk assessment tried to come to grips with these issues. The program began with an over view of the state of the art of risk as sessment. In an attempt to put ev erything down on paper, the Com mittee on Risk & Decision Making of NAS is preparing a report on methods for risk assessment, and a status re QOrt was presented by Howard Raiffa, Frank P. Ramsey professor of mana gerial economics at Harvard. The re port is expected to be presented to the academy in January. From Raiffa's presentation, it is clear that most of the problems with risk assessment are not with assem bling data, but with interpretation. Raiffa says obtaining value-free re ports from "synthesized" data is very difficult. There.is a tendency to pre judge the data, coloring it with the analys_ts' own perceptions. Raiffa's committee sees the need for "inde pendent, credible assessment groups," to do analysis. The problem with individuals' own !'1sk values sneaking into assessments ~s t~at people ?ften have very subJect1ve perceptions about risks that may bear little or no resemblance to the actual relative risk. Thls is the subject o~ studies by psychologist Baruch F1schhoff at Decision Re search in Eugene, Ore. He cites sev eral studies }ndicating that people's risk per~ep~1ons are colored by their o~ preJud1ces and even the way the risks are presented.. But Fischhoff warns that the pub. be cannot be ignored just because it doE:5n't accept the risk evaluations of a dISpassionate "credible assessment group." It becomes an issue of whether a public institution, such as a regulatory agency, should respond to the public's fears or to expert's facts. Fischhoff reminded the audi ence tha~ the public may act this way because 1t knows _something the ex perts do not. Even if nonexperts do not know anything special but have a deep emotional investme;t in their beliefs, the stress that would be caused by ignoring _those beliefs may have to be a factor 1n forming policy. But _even the experts are by no means m agreement on many issues Panel discussions of several contro~ versial issues found room for consid erable debate. Topics covered were the benzene regulations, banning of diethylstilbestrol (DES), the use of herbicide 2,4,5-trichlorophenol, and chlorofluorocarbons. Although much of these discussions was a rehash of the facts that led to regull;\tory decisions as they stand now, 1t was clear these decisions and the data on which they are based are not the final word. What they showed mostly was that without very clear answers to the question, "Does this chemical cause unacceptable risks in the V:7aY it is used?", regulatory age!l<:Ies face a tough time making dec1s1ons. But people are searching desper ately for someone to make these tough decisions, says Paul Markey Chief Judge of the U.S. Court of Customs & Patent Appeals. He does not want that someone to be the ~ourts. :r am not sure that federal Judges, immune from the political proce:is, should ever be involved, in any circumstances, as arbiters of the ~e~;ee of risk acceptable to the pub lic, Mark_ey s~ys. Chemical & Engineering News Oct. 20, 1980 He maintains that letting the courts, de~ide would preempt the peoples right to govern themselves. Markey fav~rs throwing the entire matter back mto the lap of Congress. What LY;f~rkey suggests as a "trial balloon 1s that technological prob lems be reviewed by a beefed-up Office ?f. Technology Assessment. Ac cording to Markey'~ plan, OT A could assess. any ne;V evJdence regulatory a~enc1es consider m making a decis~o~ and the correctness uf the agen cies conclusions regarding risk. If !mors are found, OT A could hand the I issue back to the agency. If an impass resulted, the matter could then be I s~ttle~ by the people's representat1Ves m Congress. Cl
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