Citation
Quarterly Report to the Technology Assessment Board, October 1 - December 31, 1981

Material Information

Title:
Quarterly Report to the Technology Assessment Board, October 1 - December 31, 1981
Series Title:
Quarterly Report Office of Technology Assessment
Creator:
Office of Technology Assessment
Publisher:
Office of Technology Assessment
Publication Date:
Language:
English
Physical Description:
210 pages.

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Technology assessment ( LIV )
Budgets ( LIV )
Genre:
federal government publication ( marcgt )
Spatial Coverage:
Washington, D.C.

Notes

General Note:
This is a quarterly report detailing the budget and progress of the Office of Technology Assessment.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of North Texas
Holding Location:
University of North Texas
Rights Management:
This item is a work of the U.S. federal government and not subject to copyright pursuant to 17 U.S.C. §105.

Aggregation Information

IUF:
University of Florida
OTA:
Office of Technology Assessment

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Quarterly Report to the Technology Assessment Board

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OFFICE OF CONTENTS I. DIRECTOR'S STATEMENT A. Highlights of the Quarter................................. 1 B. Forecasts and Projections 1 c. Director's Congressional Visits........................... 2 II. COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS A. Products Delivered During the Quarter 1. Formal Assessment Reports 3 2. Other: Technical Memoranda, Background and Staff Papers, Proceedings and Committee Prints........ 4 3. Requests for OTA Publications......................... 5 4. Private Sector Reprinting of OTA Publications......... 5 5. Testimony............................................. 7 B. Other Communication with Congress 1. Briefings, Presentations, Workshops................... 8 2. Informal Discussions --topics........................ 8 3. Subjects of Coordination with Other Congressional Support Agencies 10 C. New Starts During the Quarter 12 D. Projects in Process as of 12/31/81 (including formal assessments, responses to TAB, and Committee requests) 1. Budget and Schedule --formal assessments 14 2. Brief Status Reports on OTA Assessments 17 3. Description and Requester(s) of Projects a. b. c. In Progress as of 12/31/81 In Press as of 12/31/81 Undergoing TAB Review as of 12/31/81 42 52 N/A 4. Advisory Panel Meetings Held 56 III. EXTERNAL ACTIVITIES A. External Publications 57 B. Visits to OTA by Foreign Officials/Groups 58 IV. PUBLICATION BRIEFS OF FORMAL ASSESSMENTS DELIVERED 60 V. SELECTED NEWS CLIPS ON OTA PUBLICATIONS AND ACTIVITIES

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I. DIRECTOR'S STATEMENT A. Highlights of the Quarter Because seven new assessment projects were approved at the September meeting of TAB, no additional new starts were requested during the first quarter of FY '82. During the quarter, three Reports were published, along with one Technical Memorandum and four case studies. Between October 1 and the December recess, OTA testified eleven times before five Senate and six House Committees. On October 6, Senator Howard Cannon was appointed to TAB, succeeding Senator Stevenson. The Technology Assessment Advisory Council met in October to review current and recently-completed work as well as to discuss areas for future interest. At the end of the quarter, twenty-nine assessments were in process. Simultaneously, twelve products were in final stages of edit and printing, with delivery to Congress in the second quarter. In response to comments by several individuals we have begun sending brief status reports on current assessments to requesters and endorsers. These have also been included in this report to TAB, immediately following the budgetary information (pp. 17 to 41). During the quarter, the GPO reprinted three OTA documents which had sold out. Thirty-two OTA studies have now been reprinted by the commerical press. One report, Impacts of Applied Genetics, was selected as Book of the Month by the Library of Science Book Club. Visits by foreign dignitaries continued to be heavy. During the quarter, OTA responded to requests for meetings with high-level visitors from Den.mark, France, Netherlands, Soviet Union, Sweden, United Kingdom, and West Germany. B. Forecasts and Projections One of OTA's responsibilities to Congress is to help provide a sense of the future with respect to science and technology. A large fraction of issues faced by Congress have major long-term implications. Thus current policy dec.isions have embedded in them important implications for the future. One approach to getting a sense of the future is forecasting (predicting) what the future is likely to be, based on any of a number of methods including, for example, reading tea leaves, sophisticated econometric modeling, judgments of individuals or groups, or projections based on trends in science, technology, and social behavior. The ultimate result is a prediction about what the future will be like. Such predicutions are more often wrong than right. One reason is because of the inherent complexity of things. Nils Bohr, who predicted the structure of the atom, said that" making a successful prediction is extremely difficult, especially if it's about the future!"

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-2 -Another approach to gaining a sense of the future is to identify and analyze-the factors that have --and will --affect future conditions, including science and technology, economic and population change. When the influence of different factors is understood to some extent then one can project alternative sets of futures that could logically follow from alternative explicit assumptions about separate influential factors. This method doesn't predict the future but can be used to indicate the different paths that would be plausibly taken in response to different conditions along the way. Such a procedure can be very helpful in systematically examining the implications of alternative current actions on the future state of things. If the future were fully predictable, present life would be pretty uninteresting even if less complicated. For one thing, it would imply that we cannot affect the future by actions we take between now and then. On the other hand, it is clear that a "sense" of the future --what we can do to affect future conditions --is not only desired by people, even if obtained at some loss of freedom and diversity, but also increasingly imperative in terms of economy and national security. OTA does little or no forecasting but continues to utilize projection methods in its analyses. C. P. Snow said: "A sense of the future is behind all good politics. Unless we have it, we can give nothing --either wise or decent --to the world." c. Director's Congressional Visits Senator Spark M. Matsunaga Senator Paul S. Sarbanes Congressman Thomas B. Evans, Jr. Congressman Walter B. Jones Congressman Paul Simon Congressman Robert S. Walker Congressman William C. Wampler Congressman Howard Wolpe Staff of Senator Lowell P. Weicker, Jr.

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-3 -II. COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS A. Products Delivered During the Quarter 1. Formal Assessment Reports (see also Publication Briefs, p. 60) o Computer-Based National Information Systems: Technology and Public Policy Issues Report, September 1981 Summary, October 1981 The Report is an overview on the use of computer technology in national information systems and related public policy issues. It provides a general introduction to computer-based national information systems, a framework for understanding computer and information policy issues, a state-of-the-art survey of computer and related technologies and industries. Requester: Hon. Peter W. Rodino, Chairman House Committee on the Judiciary o Technology and Soviet Energy Availability Summary, November 1981 Report, November 1981 Analyzes and identifies various levels of availability of U.S. and other Western energy technology. The Report examines the impact of availability on Soviet energy production to 1990 and discusses the policy options available to the Soviets by way of other Warsaw Pact countries, the Western importers of Soviet energy, and the Middle East. Requesters: Hon. Clement J. Zablocki, Chairman, House Committee on Foreign Affairs Hon. Jake Garn, former Ranking Minority Member and now Chairman, Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Hon. William Proxmire, former Chairman and now Ranking Minority Member, Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs o Development and Production Potential of Federal Coal Leases Summary, November 1981 Report, December 1981 An independent analysis of all outstanding Federal coal leases that includes 564 developed and undeveloped leases and 172 preference-right lease applications. The study also analyzes 1 all mining activities on Federal leases, assesses the present and potential value of the outstanding leases, estimates revenues to the Federal government and examines the feasibility of using deepmining technology in leased areas. Requester: Mandated under PL 94-377, Federal Coal Leasing Amendments Act of 1976

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4 2. Other Technical Memoranda, Background and Staff Papers, Workshop Proceedings, and Committee Prints o Nonnuclear Industrial Hazardous Waste: Classifying for Hazard Management Technical Memorandum November 1981 Discusses the basic issues surrounding a degree-of-hazard classification approach; the potential for incorporating a degree-of-hazard concept through classification in current regulation; various methods for applying the system; and questions to be addressed before the decision regarding incorporating the system and the Federal and State level can be made. Part of OTA's ongoing assessment, An Assessment of Nonnuclear Industrial Hazardous Waste Requester: Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman, House Committee on Energy and Connnerce o Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Medical Technology. Background Paper #2: 17 Case Studies of Medical Technology Case Studies The following case studies were published this quarter: #14 The Costs and Effectiveness of Orthopedic Joint Implants #11 The Costs and Effectiveness of Medical Interventions: The Case of Cimetidine and Peptic Ulcer Disease #15 Elective Hysterectomy: Costs, Risks and Benefits #17 Surgery for Breast Cancer September 1981 September 1981 October 1981 October 1981 (The last two case studies are scheduled for delivery next quarter. Seep. 53.) o OTA List of Publications (update) December 1981

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5 ,. 3. Requests for OTA Publications During the first quarter of Fiscal Year 1982 the OTA Publishing Office processed over 7,100 separate mail and phone requests for OTA publications (averagingover 108 requests per day). Of these requests, 726 were Congressional and 6,381 were non-Congressional (mostly referred to GPO). OTA's most popular report for this quarter was Computer-Based National Information Systems including over 435 referrals to GPO. Several Congressional offices requested multiple copies of OTA's publications. Most notable: 0 0 0 0 Request for 50 copies of the full report and 100 copies of the summary of Computer-Based National Information Systems for use in a Congressional field hearing. Request for 24 copies of the full report The Effects of Nuclear War for use in hearings. Request from a Member for 150 copies of the summary An Asse~sment of Development and Production Potential of Federal Coal Leases. Request from the Congressional Research Service for a total of 350 copies of the summary Impacts of Applied Genetics. Multiple copies of publications were also requested by other Government agencies and private organizations. They include a request for 30 copie~ of the summary Technology and Soviet Energy Availability from the American Institute of Merchant Shipping; 25 copies of the summary Technology and Oceanography from the National Academy of Science~/Marine Board; and 20 copies of the OTA List of Publications for use in teaching a course at UCLA's Graduate School of Library Sciences. In addition, the Government Printing Office went back to press on several OTA publications because of increased interest and demand. Among the publications reprinted during this quarter were: The Effects of Nuclear War (6,000 more copies); Computer-Based National Information Systems (1,000 more copies); and CEA, Background Paper #2, Case Study #11: Benefit and Cost Analysis of Medical Interventions: The Case of Cimetidine and Peptic Ulcer Disease (500 more copies). 4. Private Sector Reprinting of OTA Publications The National Association of Medical Directors of Respiratory Care requested the camera copy for CEA, Background Paper #2, Case Study #12: Assessing Selected Respiratory Therapy Modalites: Trends and Relative Costs in the Washington, D.C., Area. This Association, based in Arlington, VA, anticipates reprinting approximately 600 copies of this case study to be distributed to its local and national association members. To date, 31 OTA publications (in whole or in part) have been reprinted by commercial publishers or private organizations for various audiences.

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6 Also, it is interesting to note that the United States International Communication Agency requested permission to publish an abridgement of Chapter 2, Introduction "Concepts of Appropriate Technology" from OTA's publication An Assessment of Technology for Local Development in a magazine published threetimes a year in both Spanish and English for distribution in other countries on a non-profit basis.

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5. Testimony Date 10/5/81 10/6/81 10/7/81 10/16/81 10/29/81 11/9/81 11/l2/81 11/16/81 11Y18/81 11/24/81 12/10/81 -7 Committee House Committee on Science & Technology, Subcommittee on Energy Research and Production Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources and the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, Subcommittee on Nuclear Regulation House Committee on Science & Technology, Subcommittee on Science, Research, and Technology Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources Senate Committee on Environment & Public Works Works House Committee on Energy & Commerce, Subcommittee on Fossil & Synthetic Fuels and the House Committee on Interior & Insular Affairs Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs House Committee on Energy & Commerce, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations Senate Committee on Veterans Affairs House Committee on Government Operations, Subcommittee on Commerce, Consumer and Monetary Affairs House Committee on Science & Technology, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations Subject/Person Testifying High-level Radioactive Waste Management and Policy Act and R.R. 1993: The Radioactive Waste Research, Development and Policy Act (Tom Cotton) High-level Radioactive Waste Management and Policy Act and R.R. 1993: The Radioactive Waste Research, Development and Policy Act (Tom Cotton) Use of animals in medical research and testing in cancer (Michael Gough) S. 1544 The State and Local Energy Block Grant Act of 1981 (John Gibbons) Proposed legislation related to acid precipitation control -S. 1706 and S. 1709 (Robert Friedman) Alternatives to the Alaskan Natural Gas Transportation System (Richard Rowberg) The West Siberian Gas Export Pipeline (John Gibbons and Ronnie Goldberg) Hazardous Waste Sites (Audrey Buyrn and Joel Hirshhorn) Agent Orange Study (Michael Gough) Santa Fe International Energy Technology Transfer (Richard Rowberg) Soviet Energy Availability (John Gibbons)

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-8 -B. Other Communication with Congress 1. Briefings, Presentations, Workshops, and Informal Discussions -Topics o House Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs, Subcommittee on Housing and Community Development (Majority and Minority staff) -(energy retrofit of buildings) o Environment and Energy Study Conference (attended by miscellaneous Congressional offices)(Briefing on organization and objectives of OTA Wood Assessment) o House Committee on Government Operations, Subcommittee on -Commerc-e; Con:sumer-and-Mone-taryAffafrs (Santa Fe International) 2. Informal Discussions In addition to testimony and other formal briefings and presentations, numerous informal discussions take place continually on updates of OTA work and information that Members and Committees may need relative to legislation pending or under consideration or for hearings and related testimony. Below are topics of some of these informal discussions during this quarter. Soviet-West Europe natural gas pipeline Electronics Space warfare Submarine technology Strategic weapons tech-nology BMD technology Strategic weapons basing OTA wood assessment (several) OTA nonnuclear hazardous waste study (several) U.S. steel industry Santa Fe International sale to Kuwait Nuclear insurance Industrial energy Nuclear proliferation Nuclear power future Coal use and imports Cogeneration Building energy retrofit Alaskan natural gas pipeline alternatives OTA Health Program work Efficacy of phychotherapy and policies toward psychotherapy Technology transfer at NIH Immunization and medical devices Food safety issues Immunization and influenza vaccine Nutritional supplements and renal disease Medicare reimbursement policy concerning medical technology Use of sickle cell test in occupational settings Surgical rates of open heart surgery Workplace practice portion of OTA genetic screening assessment

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-9 -Biotechnology in the USSR and the Eas~ern Socialist nations OTA agricultural water assessment Monitored retrievable storage for nuclear waste Numerous mee~ings on costs of acid deposition control Long-range transport air pollution models Review of (non-OTA) acid rain testimony delivered to the Connnittee Assistance in technical portions of NRC report on acid deposition Numerous requests for technical information about acid deposition Assistance in 1-day workshop and hearings on acid deposition Transported air pollutants Cost of acid deposition on control bills Pollution control marketable rights Task Fo~ce on Regulatory and Congressional Reform OTA Air Service to Small Connnunities assessment OTA Air Traffic Control study (several) OTA Patent study Dispo$ition of the title to patents arising from federally funded R&D OTA National Crime Information Center study re FBI appropriations hearings. OTA National Information Systems Overview Report Electronic Funds Transfer study-review of OTA draft reports OTA World Administrative Radio Conference study Robotics Educational technology Direct Broadcast Satellites (DBS) Remote sensing from space Space policy (sev_eral) Cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination and childhood immunization University-industry relationships in biotechnology Biotechnology Biotechnology--occupational genetic screening Health. preventive technologies--R&D and technology transfer OTA Patent Term Extension/ Pharmaceutical Industry study OTA Telecommunication study OTA Electronic Message Study/ U.S. Postal Service hearings

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10 3. Subjects of Coordination with Other Congressional Support Agencies a. Congressional Research Service Together with GAO, assistance to House Science and Technology Connnittee (Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Agriculture and Research) with a workshop and hearings on acid deposition. Together with GAO, interagency seminar on water Together with GAO, participation at OTA panel meeting on biotechnology Together with GAO, participation at OTA panel meeting on genetic screening CRS provided draft of glossary items relating to OTA technology and handicapped people assessment Shared information on medical rehabilitation research facilities Service on MEDLARS advisory panel (Nation Library of Medicine report under OTA Strategies for Medical Technology Assessment study) Together with CBO and GAO, natural gas studies Together with CBO and GAO, oil disruption study workshop Nuclear Proliferation Conference Discussion of OTA wood assessment OTA International Security and Commerce Program discussion of future coordination OTA briefed CRS on OTA assessment of Technology and Soviet Energy Availability Together with GAO and CBO, planning for large coordination meeting on national security Briefing and discussion of British Petroleum's latest energy forecasts Various space issues Discussions on Technologies for Sustaining Tropical Forest Resources b. Congressional Budget Office Assistance to Senate Committee on Environment and Public works on interpretation of models for predicting utility control costs. Met with staff of House Committee on Energy and Commerce and Utility Air Regulatory Group to discuss costs of acid precipitation control bills.

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-11 -Discussion about ongoing analysis by CBO of data from Federal E;mployees Health Benefits Program relating to OTA Strategies for Medical Technology Assessment study Together with CRS and GAO, natural gas studies Together with CRS and GAO, oil disruption Together with CRS and GAO, planning for large coordination meeting on national security c. General Accounting Office Together with CRS, assistance to House Science and Technology Committee (Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Agriculture and Research) with a workshop and hearings on acid deposition. Together with CRS, interagency seminar on water Together with CRS, participation at OTA panel meeting on biotechnology Together with CRS, participation at OTA panel meeting on genetic screening University-industry relationships in biotechnology OTA Health program coordination with GAO HMO's GAO's cost recovery analysis of the National Library of Medicine's pricing policies Together with CRS and CBO, natural gas studies Together with CRS and CBO, oil disruption Together with CRS and CBO, planning for large coordination meeting on national security Routine progress briefings on OTA coal leasing report and GAO related work Possible coordination re project in national security Review of GAO defense programs Wetlands and oil/gas activity in Alaska Air traffic control automation Discussions on Technologies for Sustaining Tropical Forest Resources

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12 -C. New Starts During the Quarter 1. Formal Assessments (Approved by TAB 9/22/81) o Potential U.S. Natural Gas Availability (p. 43) o Wood: The Material, The Resource (p. 44) 0 0 0 0 0 Strategic Command, Control, C~mmunications and Intelligence Systems (CI) (p. 45) Comparative Assessment of the Commercial Development of Biotechnology (p. 47) Health and Safety Control Technologies in the Workplace (p. 47) Genetic Screening and Cytogenetic Surveillance in the Workplace (p. 48) Assessment of Approaches to Wetlands Use (p. 50) 2. Special Responses 12/81 Technology Transfer at the National Institutes of Health (seep. 48 for description)

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13 D. Projects in Process as of 12/31/81 (includes formal assessments, responses to TAB, and Special Responses) 1. Budget and Schedule of Assessments in Progress, December 31, 1981 .......... 14-16 2. Brief Status Reports on OTA Assessments ..... 17-41 3. Description and Requesters -All Projects "in Process, December 31, 1981 o In Progress. . . . . . . . . . . 42 o In Press. . . . . . . . . . . . 52 4. OTA Advisory Panel Meetings Held.......................... 56

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Cost code and assessment Energy, Materials, and International Security Division 1102 Alternative Energy Futures ............. 1103 Energy Efficiency of Buildings in Cities (in press) 1104 Industrial Energy Conservation Use (7/82) 1106 Synthetic Fuels for Transportation ....... Future Potential of Electric and Hybrid Vehicles-Background Paper (in press) 1107 Industrial and Commercial Cogeneration Assessments in Progress, Dec. 31, 1981 Budget and Schedule (dollar estimates in thousands) Estimated TAB delivery 1982 JAN I FEB I MAR I APR I MA y I JUN I JUL I AUG I SEP I OCT I NOV I DEC $730 A $608 $622 A $715 $288 A $321 1983 JAN I FEB I MARI APR 1109 Strategic Technologies for an Oil $472 ..&. $472 Disruption ......................... 1111 Potential U.S. Natural Gas Availability .... 1205 Nonnuclear Industrial Hazardous $900 $935 Waste .... ......................... 1206 Wood: The Material, The Resource ....... 1. Technologies for Improved and Expanded Wood Utilization (tech. memo) : 2. Technologies for Improved Forest Management (tech. memo) 1301 Competitiveness of U.S. Electronics I $418 A Industry ........................... 1305 Strategic Command, Control, $392 ... $392 Communications, & Intelligence (See status report, p. 25.) Systems ......................... .A. Current projected date for delivery to TAB. Projected cost figures on left are TAB-approved budget estimates; on right are latest projections by OTA management as of Jan. 12, 1982. $450 A $450 $618 ,A. $618 Percent variance of projected cost -16.7 +15 + 13.5 --+3.9 -+14.8 -I-' .p.

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Assessments in Progress, Dec. 31, 1981 Budget and Schedule (dollar estimates in thousands) Estimated TAB delivery 1982 1983 Cost code and assessment JAN j FEB j MARI APR I MA vi JUN I JUL I AuGI SEP I 0c1 I Novj DEC JAN I FEB I MAR I APR Health and Life Sciences Division 2103 Water-related Technologies for Sustaining Agriculture in U.S. Arid & Semi-Arid Lands ................... 2104 Technologies for Sustaining Topical Forest Resources .................. 2203 Evaluation of VA Agent Orange Protocol .......................... 2204 Strategies for Medical Technology $423.A. $454 Assessment ....................... Post-Marketing Surveillance of Drugs (2/82) Medlars and Health Information Policy ., (1/82) Strategies Under Competitive Proposals (3/82) 2205 Technology and Handicapped $350.A. $364 People ............................ 2206 Health and Safety Control Technologies in the Workplace ................... 2304 Comparative Assessment of the Commercial Development of Biotechnology ..................... 2305 Genetic Screening and Cytogenetic $138 $143 Surveillance in the Workplace ........ A Current projected date for delivery to TAB. Projected cost figures on left are TAB-approved budget estimates; on right are latest projections by OTA management as of Jan. 12, 1982. 8 The TAB delivery dale of this assessment Is dependent on VA contractor protocol proposal receipt and acceptance. $497 $493 A $411 $412 .. (indefinite)a $88 $65 $445 ... $294 (7/83) $657 $729 Percent variance of projected cost -1 --26.1 + 7.3 +4.0 -34.0 + 11.0 +3.6 I-' vi

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Assessments in Progress, Dec. 31, 1981 Budget and Schedule (dollar estimates in thousands) Estimated TAB delivery 1982 1983 Cost code and assessment JAN I FEB l MAR I APR l MAYl JUN I JUL l AUG I SEP I OCT I NOV I DEC JAN I FEB I MAR I APR 3 3 icience, Information,. and Natural Resources >ivision ,102 Airport and Air Traffic Control System .... ,102 National Information Systems (NIS) ..... -" National Crime Information Center Electronic Message Systems-Background Paper (2/82) Electronic Funds Transfer Systems-Background Paper (2/82) 105 Patent System and Its Impact on New Technological Enterprises ....... 106 Information Technology and Education ... 201 High-Level Radioactive Waste Management and Disposal ....................... 202 Impacts of Atmospheric Alterations ...... 205 Assessment of Approaches to Wetlands .......................... 301 Space Policy and Applications .......... 902 Impact of Advanced Air Transport Technology ........................ Financing and Program Alternatives-Staff Paper (1/82) $378 $389 $801 _.\ $920 $295 ... $323 $271 JA. $271 $970 _A $1,116 $675 4, $679 .A. $690 $554 .Ii... $613 $651 Acurrent projected date for delivery to TAB. Projected cost figures on left are TAB-approved budget estimates; on right are latest projections by OTA management as of Jan. 12, 1982. $433 .Ii.._ $388 Percent variance of projected cost +2.9 + 14.9 +9.5 -+ 15.0 +0.1 -10.4 -19.7 +6.2 I-' 0\

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January 1982 17 -ASSESSMENT: INDUSTRIAL ENERGY USE Highlights The objective of the project is to assess the effect of selected legislation as it affects the energy use, capital investment, and employment in four energyintensive industries, i.e. steel, chemicals, paper and petroleum refining. To carry out these assessments, OTA is using a trio of analytical methodologies, among which are corporate case-studies, computerized economic analysis, and consultant evaluation. Over the past six months, OTA has visited with the senior management of Champion International Corporation, Cities Service Refining Company, E. I. du Pont de Nemours, Inc., and Inland Steel in order to learn first hand the corporate implications of such legislation as accelerated depreciation, energy investment tax credits, energy taxes, and subsidized or increased capital availability. The OTA staff has held three workshops in Washington to review the results of our consultant evaluation, computer modeling and case-study visits. The one remaining workshop on the steel industry will be held in mid-February. To date, OTA preliminary results indicate that corporate strategy plays an important role in energy-related industrial decisions, and that government policies are most effective when they are in close agreement with corporate strategies. Current Estimated Delivery to OTA Congressional Board: July, 1982 Project Director: James Ryan (6-2133)

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Highlights January 1982 18 -ASSESSMENT:. SYNTHETIC.FUELS.AND.INCREASED.AUTOMOBILE.FUEL EFFICIENCY: ALTERNATIVES FOR"REDUCING u~s~ OIL"IMPORTS In June, 1981, workshops wereheld on the costs of increased automobile fuel efficiency and of synfuels. Amo_ng others, members of the Department of Transportation's Transportation Systems Center attended the auto workshop, while people involved in synfuels at the Department of Energy attended the synfuels workshop. Following the workshops, a complete draft of the report.was prepared and sent to the Advisory Panel and other reviewers in early September. At an Advisory.Panel meeting on October 16~ the draft was reviewed with the emphasis on the policy options, issues and findings, and executive summary. Based on the reviews, these chapters were modified extensively and sent for a second round of reviews. The technical and economic analyses of increased automobile fuel efficiency were als~ re-examined and modified. As part of the re-examination, an OTA staff member visited several automotive engineers at GM and Ford in Detroit. OTA staff is currently incorporating review comments and other changes into a complete draft _report Current Estimated Delivery to OTACongressional Board: Early February, 1982 Project Director: Thomas Bull (6-2127)

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January 1982 ASSESSMENT: INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL COGENERATION Highlights The draft report has now been revised based on Advisory Panel comments on the first draft. The revised version is now being reviewed by Panel Members and others. These comments will be incorporated and that draft will be forwarded to the Assistant Director and Director for final internal review prior to submission to the Technology Assessment Board (early March 1982). Project Director: Jenifer Robison (6-2134)

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January 1982 20 -ASSESSMENT: STRATEGIC RESPONSES TO.AN EXTENDED OIL.DISRUPTION Highlights Two workshops have been held on this study. On September 23, representatives of various industry groups and others met at OTA. This informal meeting was designed to assist in issue identification, and areas of research. A more structured workshop was held December 2, attended by people doing research and analysis on oil disruption~ The purpose of this meeting was to revie~ OTA's approach to the topic, to discuss possible methods for analyzing the economics and public policy questions involved, and to share information on current work. Participants from both Congressional Budget Office, the Library of Congress and the ~eneral Accounting Offices have been part of the early work, and have been helpful in exchanging information on related studies. Staff is considering eliminating the Technical Memorandum originally scheduled for publication early in 1982 in favor of moving more quickly toward the report itself. Current Estimated Delivery to OTA Congressional Board: December 1982 Project Director: Nancy Naismith (6-2113)

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January 1982 -21 -ASSESSMENT: POTENTIAL U.S. NATURAL GAS AVAILABILITY Highlights The proposal to undertake this study was approved by the Technology Assessment Board in September 1981. Due to unexpected delays in completing other projects, staff has not been available to do more than preliminary background work on this study since TAB approval. During this period, a meeting was held with the other three Congressional support agencies, at which the various natural gas studies underway by each agency was discussed. It was reaffirmed at that meeting that no overlap exists between the OTA study and those of the other agencies. Current Estimated Delivery Date to OTA Congressional Board: February, 1983. Project Director: Steve Plotkin (6-2110)

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January 1982 22 Assessment: NONNUCLEAR INDUSTRIAL HAZARDOUS WASTE Highlights: In November, 1981 a Technical Memorandum entitled "Nonnuclear Industrial Waste: Classifying for Hazard Management" was delivered to Mr. Dingell, Chairman of the Committee on Energy and Commerce, who requested the interim analysis. The Technical Memorandum was then released publicly. Testimony for the record was also delivered to Mr. Dingell's Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations. The subject of the Testimony was a critical analysis of EPA's methodology to rank abandoned and uncontrolled waste sites for remedial action under Superfund. Both the Technical Memorandum and Testimony have received a substantial amount of media coverage. On January 6, 1982 a meeting of the assessment's advisory panel took place. The principal business was the first stage of review of a number of contractor reports as well as status reports by OTA staff on inhouse activities. The assessment has completed the bulk of the anticipated contractor studies and the emphasis is now on inhouse analysis and writing. Project staff are interacting more with other organizations examining hazardous waste issues, including the American Society for Testing and Materials, the Association of State and Territorial Solid Waste Management Officials, and the National Academy of Sciences. ,,, A reassessment of the project's completion date is now being-carried out. Current Estimated Deli very to OTA Congressional Board: June 1982 Project Director: Joel Hirschhorn 6-2089 ...

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January 1982 23 Assessment: WOOD: THE MATERIAL, THE RESOURCE Highlights: The assessment of wood began in late September of 1981, and since that time, several contracts to perform technology appraisals have been awarded, one panel meeting has been held, and two project staff members hired. Contract work is progressing on wood materials science and utilization technology, on the demand/supply future and on future silvicultural and harvesting technologies. Preliminary work on the nonindustrial private forest sector in the Lake States has been completed. Work on land use trends and the possible effects on timber production is almost complete. In October, Julie Gorte was hired as permanent full-time OTA staff and is now the assistant project director. The first advisory panel meeting was held the sixteenth of December in order to review the project proposal, the initial results of the land availability study, and discuss the findings of the nonindustrial private forestland work. The panel meeting went well, pointing up a few areas where OTA can make contributions that are now lacking, and suggesting a few areas where existing project_ directions could be changed to provide more useful information to the Congress. In particular, the panel recommended taking a new approach to the nonindustrial private forestland sector, which is the largest single class of ownership of timberland in the nation. The project staff has held three informal briefings with Congressional staff so far. Two of these were with the staff of the House Subcommittee on Forests, Family Farms, and Energy. Two contracts have emerged from these briefings: Greg Skillman, legislative assistant to the Hon. James Weaver, Chairman of the abovementioned House subcommittee, and Dick Fritz, staffer to the ranking minority member of the subcommittee, Mr. Marlenee of Montana. In addition, the project staff briefed a member of Senator Hatfield's staff on the objectives and progress of the study. However, this staffer, Dick Grainger, has since returned to Oregon, and the project staff has not yet made further contacts on Mr. Hatfield's staff. The other requestorof the study, Senator Cochran, is heavily involved in budget and appropriations, and his staff has indicated that they have no time at present to be briefed on the wood study. Other informal briefings conducted by project staff have included several interested technical and lobbying groups, including the National Forest Products Association, The Natural Resources Defense Council, Resources for the Future, the Society of American Foresters, the Audubon Society, and Friends of the Earth. The project staff has maintained fairly close contact with Bob Wolf of CRS, and expects to use information generated by CBO on the effects of certain forestry activities and harvest levels on housing prices and demands as it begins working on supply/demand issues. No major changes in scope, completion schedule, deliverables, or budget is anticipated at this point. Current Estimated Delivery to OTA Congressional Board: March 1983 Project Director: Jim Curlin (6-2269)

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January 1982 24 -Assessment: IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY ON COMPETITIVENESS OF U.S. ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY Highlights: Drafting of the final report is proceeding, with the final meeting of the Advisory Panel --for reviewing a complete draft --anticipated by the end of March. Current Estimated Delivery to OTA Congressional Board: April 1982 Project Director: John Alic 6-2012

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January 1982 25 Assessment: STRATEGIC COMMAND, CONTROL, COMMUNICATIONS, AND INTELLIGENCE ~c3I) Highlights: The Project Director has left OTA for a position in the Department of Defense. A revised schedule is being worked out with the requesters. Current Estimated Delivery Date to OTA Congressional Board: See above Project Director: Peter Sharfman 6-2020

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26 ,.. Assessment: WATER-RELATED TECHNOLOGIES FOR SUSTAINING AGRICULTURE IN U.S. ARID AND SEMIARID "LANDS Highlights: Jan~ary 1982 The.project director. and a research analyst travelled.extensively through the Western U.S. in September, contacting people who are interested in and would be helpful to the assessment process. During this travel period, they also held three technical workshops--dryland agriculture (Denver), rangeland agriculture (Salt Lake City), and irrigation agriculture (San Francisco)--to identify issues and potential authors for the assessment. The first meeting of the advisory panel was held in October to review the preliminary work; generally recommend the broad paper topics, and identify author possibilities. Since then, four technical work groups have been organized along the broad categories: dryland, rangeland, irrigation, and social science issues. Work group meetings to devise outlines for the papers and prioritize author preference were held in Washington and in Denver, in November and December. Staff has been in contact with sister agencies, congressional offices, and private sector. Offical liaisons from the Forest Service, _Agricultural Research Service, Department of Interior, and State Experiment Stations have been named. Embassy briefings-are planned for January and early February! Staff is in process of contracting with authors to write the commissioned papers. Current.Estimated Delivery to OTA Congressional Board: April 1983 Project Director: Barbara Lausche. -6...:2223

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January 191}2 -Assessment: TECHNOLOGIES FOR SUSTAINING TROPICAL FOREST RESOURCES Highlights: The first of three advisory panel meetings planned for this project was held in January. Official liaison from the Agency for !nternational Development, Department of Interior, and the Forest Service attended, as did staff from CRS, GAO, and the House Foreign Affairs Committee. OTA staff has been in direct contact with sister agencies, (CB0, CRS, and GAO) congressional offices, and the private sector. An OTA briefing is being prepared for February for science attaches and science councilors of embassies in Washington representing tropical countries. Interviews have begun with scientists and other informed individuals on tropical forest issues as these individuals pass through Washington. As extensive network of experts in tropical forestry has been identified and is being involved in identification of key issues that the study will address. Current Estimated Delivery to .OTA Congressional Board: April 1983 Project Director: Bruce Ross 6-2192 I

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-28 TECHNOLOGY A5SESSMENT BoARD TEO STEVENS, ALASKA. CHAIRMAN MORRIS K, UDALL. ARIZ., VICE CHAIRMAN ORRIN G .. HATCH, UTAH GEORGE E. BROWN, J11., c:AUF, CHARLES MCC. MATHIAS, J1t., MO, JOHN O. DINGEi.i... MICH,
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January 1982 29 Assessment: STRATEGIES FOR MEDICAL TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT Highlights: The final draft of the Report is being prepared to submit to the Technology Assessment Board in mid-February. The main Report will be published as Volume I. The Post-Marketing Surveilance of Drugs component of the project has been upgraded to full report status at the request of staff from the House Connnittee on Energy and Connnerce, a first final draft is now being prepared. This component will be published as Volume II of the overall assessment. Another component of the study, currently titled "MEDLARS and Health Information Policy," is nearing its first draft stage. A specially-appointed advisory panel met on January 7, 1982 to review a partial first draft and to provide guidance for the final stages of the project. No further panel meetings are scheduled. This component of the project will be published as a Technical Memorandum. The last component of the "Strategies" study, titled "Medical Technology under Competitive Proposals," is well underway,and will also be published as a Technical Memorandum. Two meetings of a specially-appointed advisory panel are scheduled, one on February 26, 1982 and one in April 1982. Current Estimated Delivery to OTA Congressional Board: Project Director: Bryan Luce 6-2070 February 1982 (Main Report)

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January I982 30 Assessment: TECHNOLOGY AND HANDICAPPED PEOPLE Highlights: The draft report of this project is being prepared for review by the Assistant Director and Director and then submission to the Technology Assessment Board. The comments from the wide~scale external review of the draft report have been very favorable. We have been approached by people who wish to print sections of the report in an upcoming source book on rehabilitative technology and by others who want to put at least the summary chapter into a "computer bulletin board" (a network of disabled users with home computers and telecommunications devices use this on-line service). Several people have suggested that the report be made available in braille cassette, perhaps by the Library of Congress. Current Estimated Delivery to OTA Congressional Board: February 1382 Telephone Contact: Clyde Behney 6-2070

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January 1982 31 Assessment: HEALTH AND SAFETY CONTROL TECHNOLOGIES IN THE WORKPLACE Highlights: Each year the.re are sQme_ 2~J00, 000 dis.ab.ling inj.u:i;:ies aud 13~200 :leaths. in in the workplace and perhaps 100,000 people die from job-related diseases in the United States. To a major extent efforts to reduce this toll are directed at developing and applying control technologies--engineering controls, worker education programs, and personal protection devices. New industrial plant construction and modernization of existing plants is expected to result from interest in increased productivity and reduced energy consumption. Such construction may offer opportunities for installing new technologies to reduce workplace health and safety hazards. The assessment will develop information about research and development, diffusion, application, and evaluation of workplace control technologies. Congressional options are expected to address: (1) improving data about workplace accidents and illnesses; (2) aiding development of appropriate technologies; (3) making control technologies available to small firms at a price they can afford. The Assessment was approved at the September 1981 OTA Technology Assessment Board meeting. The project director and two project staff are on-board. One or two additional contract staff will be hired. The advisory panel is being assembled, and the first panel meeting will be held in March or early April 1982. Note: Full-scale initiation has been delayed because the project director and one project staff member are engaged for two months on a short-term study of Technology Transfer at the National Institutes of Health. Current Estimated Delivery to OTA Congressional Board: March 1983 Project Director: Michael Gough 6-2070

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Assessment: Highlights: 32 -COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT OF BIOTECHNOLOGY January 1982 This assessment was initiated October 1, 1981. Its fundamental objective is to evaluate whether the United States is likely to be competitive in biotechnology with other na~ions in the years ahead. An eighteen member advisory panel has been formed and held its first meeting on 9 November 1981. Besides panelists and OTA staff, the meeting was attended by representatives of other Congressional and Executive Branch agencies and by Congressional staff. Presentations were made in the morning session by two panel members. One covered developments in biotechnology in other nations. The other described factors influencing international trade and the development of high technology industries using semiconductors as a case example. In the afternoon questions basic to the assessment were discussed. Areas covered included: measurement of "competitiveness" and the importance of this measure; factors influencing competitiveness; the value of a survey of the U.S. biotechnology industry; what might be learned by studying the development of other high technology, rapidly developing new industries and what countries should receive emphasis in the study. Contractors and consultants have been identified or are being sought to undertake the following studies: 1) state of the art of the technology in agriculture, monoclonal antibodies, and fermentation and support technology; and 2) case studies of biotechnology in Japan, Brazil, Germany, France and England. Developments in the USSR and China are being investigated. An inhouse study of university-industry relationships is underway and staff have been working with Congressman Gor.e' s staff and GAO personnel to develop a questionnaire on this topic. Additional areas in which work will begin shortly include European and Japanese patent law, health and safety regulations in other countries, capital formation and technology licensing and transfer. Current Estimated Delivery to OTA Congressional Board: July 1983 Project Director: Gretchen S. Kolsrud 6-2090

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Assessment: Highlights: 33 GENETIC SCREENING AND CYTOGENETIC SURVEILLANCE IN THE WORKPLACE January 1982 The assessment began on October 1, 1981, and the first advisory panel meeting was held on November 24, 1981. Several invited experts from other agencies also attended. The staff presented the panel with the proposal, a draft outline of the report, and draft work statements for the principal contracts. Much was accomplished. The panel helped us clarify and improve the assessment methodology and revise the work statements. In addition, many suggestions were received on potential contractors. Presently, the assessment is near completion of its next major phase-awarding contracts. Two contractors have begun an assessment of the state of the art, and another has begun an analysis of ethical issues. A contract is expected to be awarded for a survey of workplace practice within a week and a contract for an analysis of legal issues within two weeks. Two other small contracts also will be awarded in this time period. Current Estimated Delivery to OTA Congressional Board: June 1982 Project Director: Jeff Karny 6-2090

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. January 1982 34 -Assessment: AIRPORT AND AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS Highlights: o William ~ills becomes project director (replacing Jerry Ward) on October 1, 1981. o Workshop on Airport Capacity Alternatives (August 13, 1981) Members of the airport capacity committee of the Transportation Research Board met with us to review chapter V of the ATC report. They offered sources for some new information, corrected some errors, and suggested reducing the amount of technical detail on some subjects. o Advisory Panel meeting (November 16, 1981) The draft of the assessment was sent to the panel before the meeting. Some members of the panel suggested that we had presented alternative viewpoints without sufficient emphasis--failing to show which have gre~ter following or greater merit--and that more discrimination would make the report more useful to Congress. o House Committee on Appropriations staff person, Tom Kingfield, briefed on the status of the assessment (12/21/81). o Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation staff person, John Warner, briefed on the status of the assessment (12/28/81). Current Estimated Delivery to OTA Congressional Board: February 1982 Telephone Contact (Project Director): William Mills, 6-2200

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Assessment: Highlights_ 35 -NATIONAL CRIME INFORMATION CENTER AND COMPUTERIZED CRIMINAL HISTORY SYSTEM January 1982 The draft report was circulated to the project advisory panel and selected outside reviewers in late August and September. The FBI and the Department of Justice provided detailed comments and substantial supplemental material in October and November. OTA staff attended the December meeting of the NCIC Advisory Policy Board, at which criminal justice officials from across the country expressed a strong interest in the OTA study and a desire to participate in review of the revised draft. The results of the Interstate Identification Pilot Project were made available to OTA. Based on all comments and material received, a revised draft report is nearing completion and is scheduled to go out for final review in midFebruary. A cross section of interested Federal, State, and local criminal justice officials will be included in the final review process. Current Estimated Delivery to OTA Congressional Board: March 1982 Project Director: Fred Wood 6-2240

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-36 -Assessment: The Patent System and New Technological Enterprises Highlights: The climate for generating new technologically based enterprises in the United States has worsened during the past ~ecade. Economists differ in their appraisals of the exact contribution such firms make to innovation, employment, and economic progress; however, it is possible that the contribution level is high and that tehcnologically based enterprises are essential to the growth and revitalization of our society. Fledging entrepreneurs and independent innovators are frequently dependent on, and influenced by, the patent system to a much greater degree than are large, established firms. In almost all aspects of the patent system --e.g., prosecution, interferences, licensing, litigtion --small firms and individual investors face far more difficult obstacles and economic choices than do the large firms. The importance of new technologically based firms to the future economic vitality of the United States underscores the need to assess the impact of the patent system on the generation and stimlualtion of such enterprises. The study of the Patent System and Its Impact on New Technological Enterprises is in the report drafting stage. The final Advisory Panel meeting was conducted on September 22, 1981. The purpose of the meeting was to review contractor and internal reports which comprise the major input for the report. The efforts expended in preparing the report on Patent-Term Extension and the Pharmaceutical Industry (released August 24, 1981) have had an effect on the progress of the Patent Study; however, we anticipate that the report will still be able to be delivered by the originally scheduled date of April, 1982. Current Estimated Delivery Date to OTA Congressional Board: April, 1982 Project Director: Norman L. Balmer (6-2165)

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January 1982 -3] Assessment: Information Technology and Education Highlights: Over the last decade, pressures have grown on the educational system to provide for a variety of new needs and to do so on a constant or even shrinking budget. The Federal and state governments now require that schools provide equal educational opportunities to groups traditionally outside the mainstream, such as the handicapped. Changing needs for job skills and changing demographic conditions also present new demands for education and training beyond the age group traditionally considered to be in their educational years. Information technology potentially provides opportunities for the education system to improve its productivity, to improve the quality of instruction, and to offer more flexibility both in content, and in the time and place of offering. Previous attempts to enlist technology in education programs have had mixed outcomes, but the markedly lower cost and increased capability of new and projected computer technology, coupled with advances in telecommunication services, implies that a new look at education uses of these technologies is in order. All contractor work has been completed, and the assessment is now in the report drafting stage. The final panel meeting is scheduled for March 5, 1982. At this meeting, contractor and staff reports will be reviewed along with a first draft of the assessment. We anticipate that the report will be delivered by April, 1982. Current Estimated Delivery Date to OTA Congressional Board: April, 1982 Project Director: Fred W. Weingarten (6-22~0)

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January 1982 -38 -Assessment: HIGH LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE MANAGEMENT AND DISPOSAL Highlights: Testimony to House Committee on Science and Technology, Subcommittee on Energy Research and Production. June 18, 1981. Testimony to House Committee on Science and Technology, Subcommittee on Energy Research and Production. October 5, 1981. Testimony to Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, and Nuclear Regulation Subcommittee of Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works. October 6, 1981. Draft summary of assessment sent to advisory panel on December 10, 1981. Draft has received very favorable reviews f"rom all parties, with the result that few changes are contemplated before submission to the Board (expecte.d before the end of February). Current Estimated Delivery to OTA Congressional Board: February 1982 Project Director: Thomas Cotton 6-2132

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January 1982 39 Assessment: IMPACTS OF ATMOSPHERIC ALTERATIONS Highlights: Draft staff paper on Long-Range Transport Air Pollutants distributed to the requesting committees for review. The staff draft includes discussions of: the issues surrounding transported air pollutants; the current state of scientific understanding; regulatory and economic aspects; and the risks of controlling versus not controlling transported air pollutants. Twenty appendices provide more detailed information on individual areas of concern. Testified twice before the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works: June 30, 1981, on the topic of "Interstate Air Pollution"; and October 29, 1981, on "Proposed Legislation (S. 1706 and S. 1709) Related to Acid.Precipitation Control". Changed the scope of the assessment to address transported air pollutants only (e.g., acid deposition and ozone), thereby eliminating the portion of the assessment on climate modifiers (such as carbon dioxide and chlorofluorocarbons). Delivery date has been changed to June 1981. Both actions approved by the Technology Assessment Board in December, 1981. Current Estimated Delivery to OTA Congressional Board: June 1982 Project Director: Robert Friedman 6-2131

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January 1982 40 Assessment: ASSESSMENT OF APPROACHES TO WETLANDS USE Highlights: The first three months of OTA's wetlands assessment involved many discussions with Congressional staff and Executive Branch agencies. Informal briefings were held with staff of the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works and with the House Subcommittee on Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation of the House Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries to explain the nature and scope of the study. We also exchanged information with the CRS and. GAO personnel on our respective studies dealing with wetland issues. We have established a network of contacts with the Corps of Engineers, Environmental Protection Agency, National Marine Fisheries Service, Coastal Zone Management Program, Fish and Wildlife Service; Justice Department, as well as environmental, industry, and state groups that have been involved with wetland programs. Current Estimated Delivery to OTA Congressional Board: January 1983 Project Director: William Barnard 6-2130

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January 1982 41 Assessment: CIVILIAN SPACE POLICY AND APPLICATIONS Highlights: The Assessment will be ready for delivery to TAB. The last Advisory Panel meeting was held on October 5, 1981. The Panel felt that though the first draft of the report was "on target," it needed extensive editing before being released. It also recommended adding a full chapter on civilianmilitary space program relationships. This recommendation was followed. The report has now undergone two rounds of review in the Panel and with outside reviewers, and suggested revisions have been made. Both the requesting committee and the endorsing committee have commented on interim drafts of the report and their views have been taken into account in the revision process as well: In addition, the staff has: o Briefed Congressman George Brown on the study (Dec. 9, 1981) o Had significant interaction with NASA and with NOAA during the course of the study and the review process. NASA has reviewed the Executive Summary and Chapters I and II. Current Estimated Delivery to OTA Congressional Board: Delivered Jan. 29, 1982 Project Director: Ray A. Williamson 6-2209

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2. -42 -Description and Requester(s) of Projects a. IN PROGRESS AS OF 12/31/81 Energy, Materials, and International Security Division 1. ALTERNATIVE ENERGY FUTURES -Following an initial analysis of major issues involved in alternative energy futures, a number of separate but related studies have been initiated. Work on the future potential of Liquefied Natural Gas Imports has been completed. The second major effort, Energy for City Buildings, is under TAB review. A third major effort is a study on Industrial Energy Conservation. Energy Efficiency of Buildings in Cities (Report) (In Press) -Outlines the technical and institutional aspects of retrofitting residential and commercial buildings in urban areas to achieve greater efficiency in energy use. Requester: Hon. Fernand J. St Germain, Chairman, House Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs Industrial Energy Use (Report) -This project is designed to examine a series of four American industries (pulp and paper, steel, petroleum refining, and organic chemical production) for their potential to use energy more efficiently, and to predict the impact of selected legislative options on energy use and efficiency within those industries. Requester: Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman, and Hon. James T. Broyhill, Ranking Minority Member, House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. Malcolm Wallop, Chairman, Subcommittee on Energy and Agricultural Taxation, Senate Committee on Finance 2. SYNTHETIC FUELS FOR TRANSPORTATION AND ADVANCED AUTOMOBILE FUEL EFFICIENCY -Explains and compares in detail the technology and related issues concerning synthetic and conventional fuels for transportation, and increased automobile fuel efficiency. The Future Potential of Electric and Hybrid Vehicles (Background Paper) (In Press) -A contract report to the assessment on synthetic fuels and increased automobile efficiency. This paper discusses the technology and economics of electric and hybrid vehicles, their potential for oil savings, and possible consequences for the electric utility industry. A summary of this paper, along with the principal conclusions, will be included in the main assessment. Requester: Same as for full assessment

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43 Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. Bob Packwood, Chairman, Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation 3. INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL COGENERATION Studies the economic and technical effects of dispersed electric energy systems on the operation of electric utilities. Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman, and Hon. James T. Broyhill, Ranking Minority Member, House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. Richard L. Ottinger, Chairman, and Hon. Carlos J. Moorhead, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Energy Conservation and Power, House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon Don Fuqua, Chairman, and Hon. Larry Winn, Jr., Ranking Minority Member, House Committee on Science and Technology (endorsement) 4. STRATEGIC TECHNOLOGIES FOR AN OIL DISRUPTION -Will analyze capacity of various technologies to respond to the demands of the economy under conditions of a major oil disruption, including both national aggregate questions and regional analysis. Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. Charles H. Percy, Chairman, Senate Committee on Foreign Relations 5. POTENTIAL U.S. NATURAL GAS AVAILABILITY -Will help determine domestic (lower 48 states) on-shore natural gas availability over the next few decades, and to help understand the factors that affect this availability (resource base, production rates and costs, future technology trends, R&D needs, and institutional and policy issues). Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman, Committee on Energy and Commerce, co-signed by Hon. Philip R. Sharp, Member, House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. Pete V. Domenici, Chairman, Subcommittee on Energy Research and Development, Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources (endorsement) 6. ASSESSMENT OF NONNUCLEAR INDUSTRIAL HAZARDOUS WASTE -Will look at four aspects of the hazardous waste problem: the concepts of

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-44 -degree of hazard and risk benefit and analysis; existing dump sites that pose a threat to health and the environment; safe storage and disposal of presently-generated hazardous wastes; and process and/or product modification to reduce the amount and/or hazard of the hazardous wastes. Nonnuclear Industrial Wastes: Classifying for Hazards Management (Technical Memorandum) (Delivered November, 1981) (Requester: Same as for full assessment) -Discusses the basic issues surrounding a degree-of-hazard classification approach; the potential for incorporating a degree-of-hazard concept through classification in current regulation; various methods for applying the system; and questions to be addressed before the decision regarding incorporating the system at the Federal and State level can be made. Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman, House Committee on Energy and Commerce 7. WOOD: THE MATERIAL, THE RESOURCE -Will explore use of wood as a substitute for nonrenewable materials; assess future demand and supply of wood; evaluate future production capability; analyze forest management policies on public lands; assess the national technology for wood and forestry R&D; and review public policies and identify policy options affecting forest producti~n and the use of wood as a material. Technologies for Improved and Expanded Wood Utilization (Technical Memorandum) -Will include an assessment of the current state of the art of the utilization of wood materials and the prospect for technological improvements in the development of new and better uses for wood. (Requester: Same as for full assessment) Technologies for Improved Forest Management (Technical Memorandum) -Will assess the prospects for increasing the production of wood from the nation's forests through forest management technologies and identify opportunities for improving harvesting practices and wood recovery to improve efficiency of utilization in the forest industry. (Requester: Same as for full assessment) Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. Mark O. Hatfield, Chairman, Senate Committee on Appropriations, co-signed by Hon. Thad Cochran, Chairman, Subcommittee on Agriculture, Rural Development, and Related Agencies, Senate Committee on Appropriations.

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45 8. IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY ON COMPETITIVENESS OF THE U.S. ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY Explores the factors that determine the competitiveness of the U.S. electronics industry vis-a-vis Japanese and Western European firms, including among the factors the effects of Federal policies. Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. Bob Packwood, Chairman, Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Henry S. Reuss, Chairman, and Hon. Roger w. Jepsen, Vice Chairman, Joint Economic Committee Hon. Sam M. Gibbons, Chairman, and Hon. Guy Vander Jagt, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Trade, House Committee on Ways and Means 9. STRATEGIC COMMAND, CONTROL, COMMUNICATIONS, AND INTELLIGENCE (c3I) SYSTEMS ASSESSMENT -Will assess the technical capabilities and vulnerabilities of present U.S. c3 I systems with special emphasis on additions to the system that could usefully be made in the near term with available technology. Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. Ted Stevens, Chairman, OTA Congressional Board, and Chairman, Subcommittee on Defense, Senate Committee on Appropriations, at the request of Hon. Paul Laxalt, Chairman, Subcommittee on Military Construction, Senate Committee on Appropriations Health and Life Sciences Division 10. WATER-RELATED TECHNOLOGIES FOR SUSTAINING AGRICULTURE IN U.S. ARID AND SEMI-ARID LANDS -Will focus on the opportunities of present and emerging technologies to meet long-term sustainable agricultural water demands in arid and semi-arid U.S. lands. Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. E. (Kika) de la Garza, Chairman, House Committee on Agriculture Hon. James Abnor, Chairman, Subcommittee on Water Resources, Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works (endorsement) 11. TECHNOLOGIES FOR SUSTAINING TROPICAL FOREST RESOURCES -Will investigate technologies that can be used in the tropical regions of the U.S. and in those nations supported by U.S. development assistance to sustain a broad range of forest resources.

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46 -Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. Clement J. Zablocki, Chairman, House Committee on Foreign Affairs Hon. James A. McClure, Chairman, Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Hon. Antonio Borja Won Pat, Chairman, and Hon. Robert J. Lagomarsino, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Insular Affairs, House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs (endorsement) Hon. John H. Chafee, Chairman, Subcommittee on Environmental Pollution, Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works (endorsement) Hon. Mervyn M. Dymally, U.S. House of Representatives (endorsement) 12. EVALUATION OF VETERANS ADMINISTRATION AGENT ORANGE PROTOCOL -As mandated by PL 96-151, reviews the VA's epidemiologic studies regarding long-term health effects of veterans exposed to dioxins in Vietnam. Mandated by PL 96-151. 13. STRATEGIES FOR MEDICAL TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT -Analyzes the appropriateness and validity of existing methods of assessing medical technologies with the intent of identifying alternative strategies of assessment. Post-Marketing Surveillance of Drugs (Vol. II) The report provides a background of present FDA drug regulatory activities, presents the rationale for a post-marketing surveillance program, assesses PMS approaches and analyzes policy implications. MEDLARS and Health Information Policy Report Reviews the Library's indexing and retrieval processes, the Regional Medical Library Program and the Extramural Grant Program. Examines the policy implications of the Library's bibliographic data bank creation and vending activities vis-avis similar activities in the private sector. Requester: Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Chairman, Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources. Strategies Under Competitive Proposals Report -Analyzes the technology assessment information requirements in a pricesensitive environment and assesses the effects that a competitive system may have on the innovation of medical technologies. Requesters: Same as for full assessment, and Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Chairman, Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources.

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47 Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman, and Hon. Henry A. Waxman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment, House Committee on Energy and Commerce 14. TECHNOLOGY AND THE HANDICAPPED PEOPLE Examines technology that prevents or ameliorates handicapping conditions along with the processes to assure the appropriate development and use of such technology. Status report delivered June, 1981. Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Chairman, Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources 15. HEALTH AND SAFETY CONTROL TECHNOLOGIES IN THE WORKPLACE -Will develop options for: improving data about workplace accidents and illnesses; aiding development of appropriate technologies and their diffusion, application and evaluation; and making health and safety control technologies available to small firms at a reasonable price. Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman, House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. George Miller, Chairman, Subcommittee on Labor Standards, House Committee on Education and Labor (endorsement) 16. COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT OF BIOTECHNOLOGY -"Biotechnology" refers to the use of biological techniques such as recombinant DNA technology, cell fusion, fermentation, and enzyme technology to produce chemicals, pharmaceuticals, or other substances, to improve the quality of life or improve the characteristics of economically important plants and animals. The assessment will evaluate the evolving competitive position of the U.S. with other nations. Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. Bob Packwood, Chairman, Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, co-signed by Hon. Harrison H. Schmitt, Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space, Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman, House Committee on Science and Technology, (also expressing the particular interest of Hon. Doug Walgren, Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Research, and Technology, House Committee on Science and Technology, and Hon. Albert Gore, Jr., Chairman, Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight, House Committee on Science and Technology)

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48 -17. GENETIC SCREENING AND CYTOGENETIC SURVEILLANCE IN THE WORKPLACE -Will examine these controversial techniques proposed as means to identify high-risk individuals and environments where there is exposure to chemicals in the workplace. Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman, House Committee on Science and Technology, for Hon Albert Gore, Jr., Chairman, Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight, House Committee on Science and Technology 18. TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER AT THE NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH (Technical Memorandum) (Special Response) -Integration of issues discussed in OTA work on efficacy and safety, cost effectiveness of medical technology, strategies for medical technology assessment, and technologies for handicapped people. Will cover the types and effectiveness of NIH's activities related to developing, assessment, and transferring technologies arising from its biomedical research function. Requester(s) Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman, House Committee on Energy and Commerce. Letter co-signed by Hon. Henry A. Waxman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment, House Committee on Energy and Commerce Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division 19. AIRPORT AND AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM -Studies alternative technological and operational ways to improve the airport and air traffic control system over the next 30 years and examines their respective impacts and policy alternatives. Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. Jamie L. Whitten, Chairman, House Committee on Appropriations Hon. Howard w. Cannon, former Chairman and now Ranking Minority Member, Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. 20. ASSESSMENT OF THE SOCIETAL IMPACT OF NATIONAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS -Explores the societal implications of three national information systems. Computer-Based National Information Systems: Technology and Public Policy Issues (Delivered September, 1981) Examines the

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49 -current state and future trends in computer technology and the information industry. Provides an overview of some of the most significant information policy issues likely to arise over the next decade. National Crime Information Center and Computerized Criminal History Systems Report -Provides a review of the history and current state of criminal history record systems, an analysis of the use, management and record quality of such systems, and an assessment of the impacts and issues of a wide range of alternatives for a national computerized criminal history system. Requester: Same as for full assessment and Senate Committee on the Judiciary Role of the U.S. Postal Service in Electronic Message Systems (Technical Memorandum) -Survey of current and projected electronic message systems and technologies, an analysis of alternatives proposed for a U.S. Postal Service Role in. electronic message systems, and an assessment of potential impacts on mail volumes, revenues, and labor requirements. Requester: Same as for full assessment and House Committee on Post Office and Civil Service Preliminary Assessment of Electronic Funds Transfer Systems (Background Paper) (In press) -Provides a survey of current and projected electronic funds transfer technologies and services, a framework for understanding electronic fund transfer-related public policy issues, and essays on selected issues including privacy, security, and equity. Requester: Same as for full assessment Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. Peter W. Rodino, Chairman, House Committee on the Judiciary 21. THE PATENT SYSTEM AND ITS IMPACTS ON NEW TECHNOLOGICAL ENTERPRISES -Assesses the operation (procurement, use, enforc:ement) and administration of the patent system with respect to its effect on new technological enterprises. Patent Term Restoration Report -Investigates extending patent terms for pharmaceuticals and the impact on innovation and society. Requester: Hon. Peter W. Rodino, Chairman, House Committee on the Judiciary (published August, 1980) Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. Strom Thurmond, Chairman, Senate Committee on the Judiciary Hon. Peter w. Rodino, Jr., Chairman, House Committee on the Judiciary.

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50 22. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND EDUCATION Examines the potential education impacts of new developments in ~omputers on worker productivity, government manpower, and special education programs. Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. Carl D. Perkins, Chairman, House Committee on Education and Labor H9n. George E. Brown, Jr., Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Research and Technology, House Committee on Science and Technology (endorsement) 23. HIGH-LEVEL RADIO-ACTIVE WASTE MANAGEMENT AND DISPOSAL Looks at the techniques for the safe disposal of commercial, high-level radioactive waste and evaluates a range of disposal strategies. Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman, House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Howard w. Cannon, former Chairman and now Ranking Minority Member, Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation (endorsement) Hon. Clement J. Zablocki, Chairman, House Committee n Foreign Affairs (endorsement) 24. IMPACTS OF ATMOSPHERIC ALTERATIONS -Develops a range of impact scenarios of the social, economic, and environmental consequences of atmospheric changes caused by long-range transport of air pollutants, e.g., acid rain, photochemical oxidants, and potential global climate modifiers. Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman, House Committee .on Energy and Commerce 25. ASSESSMENT OF APPROACHES TO WETLANDS USE -Will evaluate the effects of technological activities on wetlands; options for mitigating undesirable impacts; the functional values of different types of wetlands; benefit/cost of technological activities in wetlands against the functional values of the wetlands that may be lost; and various approaches to wetlands use. Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. Robert T. Stafford, Chairman, Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, co-signed by Hon. John H. Chafee, Chairman, Subcommittee on Environmental Pollution, Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works

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-51 -Interest: House Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries, Subcommittee on Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation, and House Committee on Public Works and Transportation, Subcommittee on Water Resources 26. SPACE POLICY AND APPLICATIONS Examines alternative future national space policies and considers the important emerging space technology applications for the balance of this century. Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. Bob Packwood, Chairman, Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Howard W. Cannon, former Chairman and now Ranking Minority Member, Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation 27. IMPACT OF ADVANCED AIR TRANSPORT TECHNOLOGY -Explores the impacts of introducing or not introducing second-generation SST's into our commercial fleet (including financing and management alternatives) and the likely futures of low density (commuter) air service and air cargo operations. Advanced High-Speed Aircraft (published in April, 1980) Examines economic, environmental, energy, societal, and safety impacts of advances in the technology of high-speed aircraft. Financing and Program Alternatives (Background Paper) Examines the alternative means of financing and managing the development and production of an advanced supersonic or subsonic commercial air transport. Air Service to Small Communities (Report) -An inquiry into recent trends in air service to small communities and the possible influence of advances in commuter aircraft technologies upon this service. (In press) Air Cargo (Background Paper) -Studies the role, importance, and impact of advanced aircraft technology on the air cargo system (In press). Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. Bob Packwood, Chairman, Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman, House Committee on Science and Technology

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-52 -2. IN PRESS AS OF 12/31/81 28. ALTERNATIVE ENERGY FUTURES -(Seep. 42 for listing and description of two other parts of this assessment.) Energy Efficiency of Buildings in Cities Report -Outlines the technical and institutional aspects of retrofitting residential and commercial buildings in urban areas to achieve greater efficiency in energy use. Requester: Hon. Fernand J. St Germain, Chairman, House Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs 29. SYNTHETIC FUELS FOR TRANSPORTATION AND ADVANCED AUTOMOBILE FUEL EFFICIENCY The Future of Electric and Hybrid Vehicles (Background Paper) -A contract report to the Assessment on synthetic fuels and increased automobile efficiency. This paper discusses the technology and economics of electric and hybrid vehicles, their potential for oil savings, and possible consequences for the electric utility industry. A summary of this paper, along with the principal conclusions, will be included in the main assessment. Requester: Hon. Bob Packwood, Chairman, Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation 30. IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY ON PRODUCTIVITY OF CROPLANDS AND RANGELANDS -Explores the impacts of current and emerging technologies on the sustainability of U. s. croplands and rangelands as productive resources. Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. Robert T. Stafford, Chairman, Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works 31. TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION AND HEALTH, SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS Weighs whether Federal regulatory policies encourage or discourage private innovation in the achievement of health, safety, environmental and economic goals. Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. Bob Packw~od, Chairman, Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation

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53 -32. U.S. FOOD AND AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH -Evaluates the U.S. agricultural research efforts and public policy options for making the most of our research potential. Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. Jesse Helms, Chairman, Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Hon. Thad Cochran, Chairman, Subcommittee on Agriculture, Rural Development, and Related Agencies, Senate Committee on Appropriations (endorsement) Hon. E. (Kika) de la Garza, Chairman, House Committee on Agriculture (endorsement) 33 BACKGROUND PAPER #2: CASE STUDIES OF MEDICAL TECHNOLOGIES -Part of OTA assessment, The Implications of Cost-Effectiveness of Medical Technology (August, 1980), that weighs the technical feasibility and usefulness as well as the social implications of applying cost-effectiveness analysis to medical technologies. Four of the 17 case studies comprising Background Paper #2 have been published this quarter (seep. 4). Two others expected in the next quarter are: # 9: The Artificial Heart: Costs, Risks, and Benefits #13: Cardiac Radionuclide Imaging and Cost Effectiveness Delivery to: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Senate Committee on Finance 34. WORLD POPULATION AND FERTILITY PLANNING TECHNOLOGIES: THE NEXT TWENTY YEARS Looks at birth planning technologies and the factors affecting their development and use, primarily in the Third World. Request or Reaffirmation: OTA Director, with approval of the OTA Congressional Board. Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman, House Committee on Science and Technology (endorsement) 35. COST-EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS OF INACTIVATED INFLUENZA VACCINE REPORT -Study using a similar model to that used on pheumococcal vaccine in OTA's Report, Review of Selected Federal Vaccine and Immunization Policies.

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54 Delivery to: Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman, House Committee on Energy and Commerce 36. ASSESSMENT OF THE SOCIETAL IMPACT OF NATIONAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS -Explores the societal implications of three national information systems. (Seep. 20 for description of other parts of this project) Preliminary Assessment of Electronic Funds Transfer Systems (Background Paper) -Provides a survey of current and projected electronic funds transfer technologies and services, a framework for understanding electronic fund transfer-related public policy issues, and essays on selected issues including privacy, security, and equity. Requester: Same as for full assessment. 37. RADIO FREQUENCY USE AND MANAGEMENT: THE ADMINISTRATIVE RADIO CONFERENCE OF 1979 -Will assist in determining the implications of the Final Acts which are a treaty instrument setting forth a worldwide plan for use of the radio spectrum. Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. Bob Packwood, Chairman, Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation 38. FRESHWATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT, PLANNING AND POLICY: AN ASSESSMENT OF MODELS AND PREDICTIVE METHODS -Evaluates the wide range of computer models and methods to predict the work of water resources projects and regulations. Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. Morris K. Udall, Chairman, House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs 39. IMPACT OF ADVANCED AIR TRANSPORT TECHNOLOGY Air Service to Small Communities Report -An inquiry into recent trends in air service to small communitites and the possible influence of advances in commuter aircraft technologies upon this service. Air Cargo (Background Paper) -.Studies the role, importance and impact of advanced aircraft technology on the air cargo system. (Seep. 51 for description of other parts of this assessment.) Request or Reaffirmation:

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-55 -40. TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION AND HEALTH, SAFETY, AND ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS Weighs whether Federal regulatory policies encourage or discourage private innovation in the achievement of health, safety, environmental and economic goals. Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. Bob Packwood, Chairman, Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Technology 41. ISSUE SUMMARY AND REPORT ON AN EXPLORATORY WORKSHOP ON THE SOCIAL IMPACTS OF ROBOTICS (Workshop Proceedings) -On July 31, 1981, a workshop was held to examine the state of robotics technology and examine whether it presented significant public policy issues of potential interest to Congress. Issues discussed included impacts on employment, on the work environment, the potential for improving industrial productivity, and the impact on international competitiveness. This publication is the proceedings of the workshop. Request: Hon. Henry S. Reuss, Chairman, Joint Economic Committee 42. GLOBAL MODELS, WORLD FUTURES AND PUBLIC POLICY (Technical Memorandum) -Comparative analysis of global models and their usefulness to the policymaker. Request or Reaffirmation: Hon. George E. Brown, Jr., Member of OTA Congressional Board

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56 D.3 Advisory Panel Meetings Held Date(s) 10/2/81 10/5/81 10/22-23/81 11/9/81 11/16/81 11/.19/81 11/24/81 12/16/81 Description Technology and Handicapped People Civilian Space Policy and Applications Water-Related Technologies for Sustaining Agriculture in U.S. Arid and Semi-Arid Lands _Comparative Assessment of the Commercial Development of Biotechnology Airport and Air Traffic Control Synthetic Fuels and Automobile Fuel Efficiency Petroleum Briefing Workshop--Industrial Energy Project Genetic Screening and Cytogenetic Surveillance in the Workplace Wood: The Material, The Resource

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-57 ""' III. External Activities A. External Publications by OTA Staff Alic, John; Caldwell, Martha; and Miller, R.R. "The Role of Engineering Education in Industrial Competitiveness," Engineering Education, January 1982, p. 269. Banta, David, and Behney, Clyde, ''Policy Formulation and Technology Assessment," Health and Society (Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly), Fall 1osn. Hirschhorn, Joel S. "Keeping Up With Japan,'' The Baltimore Sun (November 17, 1981). Hirschhorn, Joel S., and Pirages, Suellen. "Hazard and Risk Assessment Compared," Hazardous Waste Report (December 28, 1981). Hirschhorn, Joel S. "Hope for the Steel Industry,'' U.S.A. Today (November 1981) Hirschhorn, Joel S. Book review, "The U.S. Steel Industry in Recurrent Crisis," Challenge (November 1981) (also in 33 Metal Producing (October 1981). Karny, Geoffrey M. "Regulation of Genetic Engineering," University of Toledo Law Review (Fall, 1981). Karny, Geoffrey M. "Regulation of Genetic Engineering in the Food and Agriculture Industries," Recombinant DNA Technical Bulletin (NIH)(December 1981). Karny, Geoffrey M., "Ownership Rights Jn Biological Inventions," Genetic Engineering News (December 1981) Weingarten, Fred W. "The Financing and Governance of Information Networks of the Future: The Public Sector," in Strategies for Meeting the Information Needs of Society in the Year 2000 (Libraries Unlimited, 1981). Weingarten, Fr~d W. "Educational Technology: The Congressional Perspective," Technology and Education (Institute for Educational Leadership, 1981). Weingarten, Fred W., "Public Cryptography: The Academic View," Speech reprint and connnentary in Communications of the ACM (December 1981) Williamson, Ray, "The Global Implications of Space Activities," Insight (December 1981).

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58 -B. Visits to OTA by Foreign Officials/Groups Country Denmark Visitors ~Topic Federation of Danish'Mechanical Engineering Microelectronics and Metalworking Industries Sven F. Thomson, Director General Erik Ohrt, VP, Dept. of Technology Peter A. Friis, Chief Economist Patil Scheuer, Public Relations Lars Moller, First Secretary, Royal Danish Embassy France Central Office of Public Hospitals Health policy and Francois-Pierre Jamet, Assistant costs Gilbert Chodorge, Assistant Hospital Necker Michel Magnier, Chief of Clinical Surgery Central Office of Pharmacy and Drugs, Ministry of Health & Social Security Ms. Marie-Paule Sere, Civil Administrator Ministry of Health Felix Gerard Mayer, Armament Engineer Antoine Georges Picot, Civil Administrator University of Lille Martine Vasselin, Ass't in Plastic Water Resources and Forestry Services Phillipe Yvergniaux, Engineer Ministry of Industry Jean Cheval, Planning Office Netherlands Health Council Mr. Verheul, Secretary General Mr. T. Evers, Science Attache, Embassy of the Netherlands Arts Soviet Union Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Academy of Science of the U.S.S.R. Dr. Alexander A. Dynkin Institute of U.S. Studies Ergeny Miklailov, Sr. Research Fellow Overviewof OTA Management of technology evaluation at OTA and the Health Council Science Policy: Technology Assessment Forecasting Energy efficiency of buildings

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Country Sweden United Kingdom West Germany -59 -Visitors Ministry of Industry Nils G. Asling, Minister of Industry Johan Martin-Loof, Special Ass't to the Minister Nils Starfelt, Science Attache, Embassy of Sweden Delegation from the National Swedish Board for Energy Source Development National Swedish Board Lemmart Steinberg, Member Department of Industry, Great Britain Duncan Davies, Chief Scientist and Engineer John Thompson, Science Attache, Embassy of Great Britain Department of Energy David Cope Intermediate Technology Development Group Ltd., Great Britain George McRobie Freie University Hans-Dieter Jacobson Steftung Wissenschaft und Politik, Ebenhausen Friedemann Muller Topic International competitiveness U.S. energy issues Biotechnology U.S. technology policy Coal Agriculture, nutrition and appropriate technology U.S. policy vis-a-vis Soviet energy development

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Publication Briefs

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Volume IV, ls~ue 10, October 1981 1 ;J )':Ji'm .:a .J Computer-Based National Information Systems Computers have become a major technological tool of American society during the last quarter of a century. Recent developments in computer and communication technology promise within this decade an even more radical revolution in the way that information is collected, stored, used, and disseminated. These advances offer new op portunities, for example, to improve productivity in the manufacturing and service sec tors of the economy. The development and use of computer-based national information systems-such as those already integral to air traffic control, military command and control, and elec tronic funds transfer-will be accelerated by major continuing advances in microelec tronics, computer programing, and data communication. Small computers will become common in the home and business. Corporations will compete intensively to provide computer-based information services. The number and size of computer networks link ing users and data bases anywhere in the country or the world will expand dramatically. At the same time, computer-based information systems are generating public policy issues at a rate that may be outstripping the ability of the Federal Government to respond. The United States appears to lack a coherent "information policy" to guide the updating of the numerous laws and regulations, some overlapping and some poten tially or actually conflicting, that affect the operators and users of information sys tems. Responsibility for setting policy is diffused throughout various agencies of the executive branch and committees of Congress. Continued innovation in information technology is a prime requisite for a healthy information industry that is competitive in the world market. It also offers the tools for improving the productivity of many sectors of the economy. Innovation depends on support for research and development on civilian applications of computer technology, vitality of academic computer science, and support for research on the impact of com puters (e.g., the impact on employment). New computer applications-such as an automated securitie$ exchange, in-home information services, electronic publishing, and electronic mail-may introduce policy issues over secondary use of personal information, surveillance, and the possible need for new approaches to the protection of individual privacy. Also, the increasingly com plicated systems now being designed and built will magnify the need for adequate pro tection of Federal information systems and vital non-Federal systems, and for the de vefopment of improved data security and cryptographic capability. Large-scale information systems may also affect Federal decisionmaking (the "automated bureaucracy"), constitutional rights (especially first, fourth, and fifth amendment rights), computer-related crime, international negotiations over the trans border flow of information and regulatory boundaries and definitions for computer based devices and services. Copies of the full OTA report, "Computer-Based National Information Systems: Technology and Public Policy Issues," are available from the U.S. Government Printing Office. The GPO stock number is 052-003-00852-1; the price is $6.50. Copies of the full report for congres sional use are available by calling 4-8996. Summary copies are available at no charge from the Office of Technology Assessment. The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) is an advisory arm of the U.S. Congress whose basic function is to help legislators antic;ipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OT A, U.S. Congress, Washington, D.C. 20510. Phone: 202/224-8996. (OTA offices are located at 600 Pennsylvania Ave., S.E.) John H. Gibbons, Director.

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~. ~. Volume IV, Issue 11, November 1981 "' .-:;, ? :;;,,;/,C,D.'.'.\',,.,.,.,,; Technology and Soviet Energy Availability No U.S. policy of restricting Soviet access to energy technology is likely to suc ceed unless U.S. allies change their present views of their interests in this matter. A policy intended to bolster Soviet energy production would not succeed without signifi cant changes in Soviet economic policy. A course of action seeking maximum commer cial advantage for the United States in energy equipment sales would be aided by mak ing the export licensing process more predictable. The vast majority of the U.S.S.R.'s energy-related imports of technology are des tined for its oil and natural gas industries, but it obtains most of these from sources outside the United States. There are a few energy technologies solely available from the United States, and a few instances in which U.S. equipment is preferred. But except for advanced computers, the U.S.S.R. is either not purchasing these items, is on the way to acquiring domestic production capabilities, or has demonstrated that such im ports are not essential. Moreover, the United States does not produce the large diame ter pipe that constitutes the U.S.S.R.'s single most important energy-related import. Western technology has been and will continue to be important to Soviet energy development. In the long term, Western exploration technology and equipment may be crucial to the oil industry. But the most vital area for such Western assistance is equip ment for the construction of large diameter gas pipelines. This is the only area in which Soviet energy-related imports might be described as "massive." Contrary to common belief, oil is not the key to Soviet energy performance in this decade. The relevant question is not how much oil the U.S.S.R. can produce by 1990, but how much energy. Predicting future Soviet energy production is a tenuous exer cise, but to the extent that plausible outcomes can be identified, the Soviet's own goal of a small rise in oil output by 1985 is reasonable. On the other hand, prospects for the Soviet coal industry are poor; even the relatively modest 1985 targets are excessively optimistic. Soviet targets for nuclear power are overly optimistic-not because of lack 1of know-how-but because of shortcomings in the efficiency and capacity of produc-1ing the required equipment and constructing power stations. OTA also found that po tentially large savings through energy conservation are not likely to be achieved. Gains in total energy production will therefore have to come from gas. Proven Sovi et gas reserves may be likened to the oil reserves of Saudi Arabia. This is the energy sector with the best prospects and performance record, and Soviet planners have ac corded it high investment priority. Gains in gas output could more than compensate-both in energy value and in hard currency earnings-for slowing growth in oil production. It is therefore highly unlikely that the Soviet Union itself or the Soviet bloc as a whole will become a net energy importer in the 1980's. The extent to which the U.S.S.R. can capitalize on its tremendous gas potential will depend on its ability to substitute gas for oil, i.e., to convert to gas in boiler and in dustrial applications, and to add to the gas pipeline network. The rate of construction of new pipelines, both for domestic use and for export, is the most important determi nant of the extent to which Soviet gas can be utilized. Energy availability is a critical factor in the growth of the Soviet Union's domestic economy; energy exports provide over half of Soviet hard currency receipts; and subsi dized energy sales to Eastern Europe are vital tools of Soviet influence in that region. From the perspective of Japan and some countries in Western Europe, Soviet energy industries are important customers for equipment and technology and a source of energy supplies. Copies of the full OTA report, "Technology and Soviet Energy Availability," are available from the U.S. Government Printing Office. The GPO stock number is 052-003-00858-1; the price is $10.00. Copies of the full report for congressional use are available by calling 4-8996. Sum mary copies are available at no charge from the Office of Technology Assessment. The Office of Technology Assessment (OT A) is an advisory arm of the U .S, Congress whose basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OT A, U.S. Congress, Washington, D.C. 20510. Phone: 202/224-8996. (OTA offices are located at 600 Pennsylvania Ave., S.E.) John H. Gibbons, Director.

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Volume IV, Issue 13, December 1981 UBLI ATIO RIEF Development. and Production Potential of Federal Coal Leases Coal production from mines that include currently existing Federal coal leases ("Federal mines"*) could incr~ase from 138 million tons in 1979 (about 15 percent of national production) to between 410 million tons to 500 million tons by 1991. Whether or not coal production will ac tually rise that far depends both on overall market demand and on competition from non-Federal mines and production from new Federal leases. The extent of increased market demand, not the availability of leased coal reserves, Is expected to determine the amount of coal that will be produced from existing Federal coal leases. The rate of growth in demand for electricity will probably be the single most important fac tor affecting demand for Western coal. Other major factors are coal transportation availability and cost and the growth of nonutility markets for coal, such as for industrial use, synfuel pro duction, and foreign exports. Over 50 percent of the coal produced in 1979 from mines with Federal coal leases came from the Powder River basin of Wyoming and Montana, which has 56 percent of the Federal reserves under lease. In 1979, Federal mines in the Powder River basin had the capacity to pro duce an additional 75 million tons over what was actually mtned. Demand for Powder River ba sin coal is likely to increase significantly over the next decade. However, capacity from existing Federal leases and non-Federal coal properties in the basin could also.increase substantially. As a result, there is potential for continued significant overcapacity in the Powder River basin over the next decade. Consequently, there is considerable debate about the timing, extent, and location of renewed large-scale leasing of Federal coal lands in that region. In contrast, little overcapacity is expected in the Southern Rocky Mountain coal regions during the same period. During the 1990's, demand for Western and Federal coal may grow rapidly, particularly if coal based synfuels and exports of coal to foreign countries become important. The Federal Government owns about 60 percent of the coal reserves in the Western States. By 1980, a total of 812,000 acres and over 16.5 billion tons of recoverable coal reserves in 14 States had been leased. More than 99 percent of these leased Federal reserves are in Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Utah, and Wyoming. The OTA report focuses on potential production from the 548 leases in these seven States. In 1980, 189 of these 548 leases, with 7.4 billion tons of recoverable reserves, were part of active mines. Another 118 existing leases (2.5 billion tons) with proposed mine plans pending approval could begin producing in the mid-1980's. No mine plans had yet been submitted for 241 leases. However, 75 of these leases (3.6 billion tons) are likely to be in production by 1991; another 65 leases (2.3 billion tons) could begin by 1991 contingent on markets for coal, in cluding demand for synthetic fuels, and on railroad construction. There are 101 leases, with about 5 percent of the reserves, that are unlikely to be developed because of poor reserves, remote location, or environmental problems. Less than 1 percent of currently leased Federal reserves are likely to be prohibited from mining because of environmental regulations concerning air quality, water resources, alluvial valley floors; return to approximate original contour, and wildlife. Mining of between 5 and 10 percent of leased reserves could be delayed because of unresolved environmental questions, but available evidence indicates that most can be mined. See the reverse side for a graphical summary of potential capacity and production and likely demand through 1990. Copies of the O.TA report, "An Assessment of Development and Production Potential of Federal Coal Leases" are available from the U.S. Government Printing Office. The GPO stock number is 052-003-00851-3; the price $10.00. Copies of the full report for congressional use are available by calling 4-8996. Summary copies are available at no charge from the Office of Tech nology Assessment. coal fro'!' !" ederal coal leases is referred to as Federal coal. A mine that includes a Federal lease is called a Federal mine. Often, for the sake of eff1c1ency of recovery or economy of operations, Intervening Slate or private coal is mined with Federal leases(s) In the same mine. Thus, many Federal mines produce both Federal and non-Federal coal. Th~ ?Hice of Technology Assessment (OTA) is an advisory arm of the U.S. Congress whose basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OT A, U.S. Congress, Washington, D.C. 20510. Phone: 202/224-8996. (OT A offices are located at 600 Pennsylvania Ave., S.E.) John H. Gibbons, Director.

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Figure 1.-Potentlal Production From and Planned Capacity of Federal Mines Summed Over the Six Major Federal Coal States 600.--------------------500 400 : ,.. ... 8. .,, 300 s 0 ., 200 j 100 Llkely 1990 demand range for all coal from the six major Western Federal coal States ----. Lessees' planned annual capacityb from all Federal mines, including presently undeveloped leases 1979 1986 Year 1991 Potential annual production:b A: Lessees' planned annual production from Federal mines in currently approved mine plans only B: Lessees' planned annual production from Federal mines in currently approved and pending mine plans C: The sum of B, above, plus estimates of potential production from presently undeveloped Federal leases &wyomlng, Montana, Colorado, Utah, New Mexico and North Dakota. bp1anned capacity for a given year is the upper limit to potential production in that year (although an even higher total capacity might be attainable in a very strong market far coal). In many cases (e.g., currently approved mines in the Powder River Basin in 1991), the lessees' production plans call for them to pro duce at or near capacity. tn other cases. even optimistic production plans fall short of using plan11ed capacity to the full. Some mines, particularly newer mines in the Southern Rockies will not attain their planned maximum capacity until the 1990"s. In all cases, however, the capacities planned for 1986 or 1991 were used in deriving fig. 1, above, not the higher numbers for planned max imum capacities in the post 1991 period. For most Federal mines in the Southern Rockies, the planned productions for 1986 and 1991 are close to the planned capacities for those years. Explanallon of ranges C: 92 million tons per ye"ar range in 1991 65 mty = Dominant uncertainty is the development of markets for the coal 22 mty: Dominant uncertainty is the construction of two railroads: one to the Kaiparowlts Plateau in Utah (1-t mty) and one to the Siar Lake-Sisti area of New Mexico (8 mty) 5 m1y: Dominant uncertainty Is the schedule of synfuels development 0: 22 million ton per year range ,n 1991 Dominant uncertainty is the construction of the two railroads mentioned above, under C. SOURCE: Office of Technology Assessment.

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Selected News Clips on OTA Publications and Activities In response to the interest of the OTA congressional board in receiving a sampling of media reports on OTA activities, the following samples received during the quarter are attached. Approximately 1,250 clips were received.

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Computer-Based National Information Systems '} \ 01

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE The Washington Post Tuesday, Oct. 27, 1981 Study Hits Federal Inf onnation Policy By Merrill Brown Washington PosI St.a.ff Wrller The federal government has failed to develop an adequate information policy and, as a result, the development of new applications of computer technology may be slowed, a congres, sional study warned yesterday. The Qffis:e of Tes;bD.o,l.Q&)'. ~in a report published yestercfay7 suggested that the government must address the the "confusing array of laws and regulations". within some overall framework. The report found "neither a strong trend nor sentiment at present among policymakers in favor of a uniform federal inf ormation policy." It said that "continuation of the present situation could inhibit many socially desirable applications of information systems or create more intractable policy problems in the future." There also is a need to devel~ op protections against abuse of computer data bases in banking, medicine, credit, insurance &nd criminal justice, said the OTA, which is an arm of Congress.' Although the policy debate in the 1970s on privacy issues centered on how to protect informa tion yielded by citizens, the issues are shifting sharply. "Individuals will increasingly be encountering computerized systems that collect and store information about them without their knowledge or consent. "Very little law exists pertaining to the ownership or disposition of such information, even whe'n its. use may be contrary to the indivi~ual's perception of his or her interests," the OTA. said. Not only is there a need to govern abuses of private data, but the government needs to tighten its own controls, the report said. The Social Security system disburses $2 billion a week, and energy resource and monetary policy information in other federal data systems could be used to make fmancial decisions, for example. "Still others contain sensitive information relating to personal privacy or national security," the report said. "All would be highly attractive to theft, manipulation, or eavesdropping." Further, the new technologies are raising issues of constitutional rights, particularly the ability of computers to record information such as listings of the books a person checks out of a library. The data could be used to assemble a "compelete dossier on that person's reading habits," the report warned. Rep.\ George Brown Jr. (DCalif.), a member of the OTA's congressional board, said the re port underscores the urgency of developing policy on these issues "before the rush of events forecloses some of the options now available for developing and managing information science and technology,"

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The Christian Science Monitor October 29~ 1981 Study: computerized information will remold society By Robert C. Cowen Natural science editor of The Christian Science Monitor The growing pervasiveness of computers, coupled with modern communications, is a leaven at work in the United States and other industrial societies that "will have pro found long-term effects as dramatic as those caused by the invention of the printing press." So prophesies the congressional Qffice of Technolo A.ssessmept (OTA) in a major study of what it calls "~om puter-based National Information Systems." "Just as the printing press, by stimulating literacy and speeding the flow of ideas, supported the Renaissance and the transition from medieval society to the age of enlightment," says OTA, "so the new information sys tems could profoundly transform the social and political environment of US and world society.'' There is potential here, OT A warns, for great good and great evil. The printing press facilitated commerce and expanded educational horizons. It also made propaganda and dicta torial control easier. The new information technology can open even broader horizons, such as the growing ability for individuals to tap electronic encyclopedias and other large information bases. But it can also make' possible new invasions of privacy and enhance "Big Brother" surveillance. Using an apt, but disquieting metaphor, OTA warns of the dangers of a "glass house society." It notes: '.'There appears to be a trend toward a society in which ir\forma tion about a person's finances, medical and educational histories, habits as a consumer; daily movements, and communications with others through the telephone or the mail will be collected, stored in a computer, possibly sold to others, and used in ways over which the individual may have little or no control. There may be many benefits in terms of the productivity and efficiency of institutions, and in terms of broadened awareness and choices avail able to individuals as citizens and consumers. But the long-term social and. political benefits of this trend beneficial and adverse -are still largely unknown." Thus, OTA the agency that analyzes major techno logical developments for the US Congress adds its warning to thoi,;e made by a number of other studies and analysts. The new information technology is fast trans forming US society, it says, and neither the legal struc ture nor established governmental policies and traditions are equipped to deal with the implications. OTA points out the information sector of the economy now accounts for over half of the US work force. Some feeling for the immensity of the change OT A foresees is gained when one realizes that the US is already an information-based society. As OTA points out, the in formation sector of the economy now accounts for over half of the US work force. This sector includes all who generate, manage, and sell information, including ac counting and inventory data, plus manufacturers of type writers, word processors, communications satellites, and other information-handling hardware. In other words, information is as vital to the function ing of the US economy and society as is energy. if not more so. Now the scope, ease. and means of generating and using information are rapicly being transformed. OTA foresees this affecting many major areas of law and governmental regulation with which Congress and citizens generally will have to deal in this decade. They include protection of basic rights of privacy, freedom of information, freedom of speech, and constitutional guar antees against unreasonable search and seizure, which become all too easy when computers do the searching and seizing of one's supposedly personal computerized information. New questions of freedom of the press are raised when newspapers become electronic data-bases, as some already are doing -a medium that may come under reg ulation by such agencies as the FCC. Copyrights are easily infringed in such data-bases, too. To what extent will electronic mail be merely another form of letter mail, and hence within Post Office purview, and to what extent will it be a new entity rightly developed by private enterprise? Such issues, already beginning to be hotly deb.ated and legally contested, will demand a new legal framework for their resolution, OTA says. At the same time, it warns, care must be taken not to stifle the creation of new forms of communication and information use by premature, dull-minded regulation. And, as a new concern for a society already troubled by inequities among its citizens, there is the prospect of what OTA calls the "information gap." It warns of "the possi bility that some individuals or groups would be denied access to information services vital to their survival in an information society because of technological illiteracy, lack of economic resources, or other reasons." As these issues become more concrete and insistent over the next five to 10 years, OTA notes, both Congress and citizens generally should realize that US society faces rapid, revolutionary change. A great deal of vision, inven tiveness, and adaptation to a new way of life will be needed to make the transition at all smoothly.

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE ~uu lR'rttutbit.O ixumbtrr SAN FRANCISCO, CAL. r:i. iGa.ao1 OCT 271SaJ Warning about computers that will snoop on people By\Judith Randal \"ew York Daily News WASHINGTON -A congressional re port warned yesterday that because com puters can be used to snoop on people without their knowledge, society's growing dependence on them could lead to invasion of privacy and abuse of consititutional rights. The report was prepared by the of Technology Assessment, a researctfffi of Congress, and releas"M yesterday. It examined. public-poliey in1plications of computer networks that can be tapped with or without a search warrant from anywhere in the world. According to the report, the new information technologies "blur the line between public and private activity." For example, an ordinary postal inspection of mail involves only the examination of what is on the outside of an envelope. But the use of electronic mail systems makes inspection the equivalent of a wire-tap because the address and the message itself usually are not separate. The report said the use of electronic .funds transfer systems for banking and .bill-paying transactions will make it possi ble secretly to collect data "of a highly personal nature" without actually putting people under personal surveillance by following them around. "There is no doubt that access to computerized information could assist law enforcement in detecting crime and in prosecuting offenders," the report com ments. "Consequently the benefits afford ed cri!ninal justice will be a compelling argument." But no less compelling will be argu ments citing the potential police-,,tate dangers of widespread uncontrolled in formation surveillance of individuals. Ultimately, the information technology would permit both the tools and the opportunity for widespread surveillance of most sdde ty." Besides drawing the attention of Congress to the privacy issues posed by computer-based data systems, the report also focused on other problems created by this rapidly developing techriology. For example, it pointed out that continued innovation in this field will make it increasingly hard to protect the information in computerized systems from theft and sabotage and that there is a very rP.al possibility that this sort of automation will put people out of work In additon the report warns that existing laws and regulations were never intended to deal \,ith the new methods of collecting and processing information. (

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1 Federal report calls computers threat to privacy Advancing technology potentially jeopardizing through concealment, access to personal records BY NORMAN BAXTER Chief, Chronicle Washington Bureau WASHINGTON -M, computer. technology advances, so do threats to personal privacy, a congressional group reports. On the market, according. to the Congressional Qff~e of .. T.~U9l.QQ;,.Ass~.~.t. ment is an eas11yeoncealed, poclfot-s1ze that measures the stress in a person's voice to determine if they are telling the truth. Within a few years, the office says in a report released Mond~y, units the size of a wristwatch, which are of unproven reliability as lie detectors, wm be available. People could be subjected to lie detector tests without their knowledge. This is one result of advances in microprocessors, or miniature computers, cited by the office in advising Congress "the potential now exists" for development of a wide variety of devices that could be used "for the surveillance of individuals without their consent." The Office of Technology Assessment made no recommendations but said Congress will be the forum in.which technological conflicts with privacy will have to be resolved. ''There appears to be a trend toward a: society in which information about a person's finances, medical and educational histories, habits as a consumer, daily movements and communications by phone or mail will be collected, stored in a computer, possibly sold to others, and used in ways over which the individual may have little or no control," the office predicts. It said a "substantial legislative effort will be required (by Congress) to catch up with current computerized recordkeeping practices." An immediate concern, the office says. is the development of privacy rules for computer applications in banking, medicine, social research, credit, insurance and criminal justice records. Concern also was expressed about po litical mailing lists. The office says those lists may contain information about what organizations a person belongs to, religious beliefs, charitable contributions, income, and history of support for vari-: ouscauses. "This type of information can be used to predict the likelihood that a person would support a particular political candidate or cause and is therefore useful in compiling, a targeted mailing list," it says. Such information, often collected without consent of the subject through the exchange or purchase of mailing lists or access to open sources of information, "assumes the character of a political dossier." The office says, "It is not clear that existing controls, either over the use of such data systems for purposes beyond computing mailing lists or over the origi-nal collection of the information, are adequate to deal with the increasing capability modern technology offers to collect. data and compile such lists." It says modern technology will make it easier in the 1980s to collect personal data and instantaneously distribute it across the nation. The Office of Technology Assessment claims with computers a person's purchase in a store could produce records showing what was purchased, the trans action's exact time and location, and possibly the consumer's financial status. The information could be sold by the store to another computer system, such as a mailing list. Also available security systems, which Houston Chronicle October 27, 1981 use magnetic cards and microproces~r; based locks, allow an employee to keep detailed records of the whereabouts of' anyone in a plant or building. : If there are abuses in the use of such systems, the office predicts, arguments about the rights of employers to monitor. employees, or stores to watch customers, will arise. The report says social and political scientists suggest "The computer repre,. sents to the public the growing power of, government and other organizations over. their daily lives. ,. "Thus, as the use of these information; systems.grows, the public's apprehension is also expected to grow, as will pressures.; on public officials to control or even stoi:t certain types of computer applications." '" j

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE Newark (NJ) Star-Ledger October 27, 1981 Computer technology and the Constitution I WASHINGTON (AP) A study prepared for Con-'. gress on the impact of forthcoming technology asks: When computers can accurately predict who is most likely to commit crimes, should society closely watch those people? Deny them jobs? Jail them? The study, published yesterday by the Qlfice Q( T.ecboatgg;-: ~!:~Jll~ni ~OTA), said computer technol ogy already in use and a~ vances on the horizon raise a host of similar questions that must be answered soon. "These technical advances are generating public policy issues .at a rate that may be outstripping the federal government's ability to respond," the OT A s~id. Tile office is an analytical agency of Congress and made no recommendations for answers to most of the questions it raised. Study q'uest,ons Asm~re personal data about potential jurors be. comes available, computer-based predicting will be, . come more exact, the report said. pofent,a, for b As a result "the entire concept of an 'impartial' ::. a US6 juryas required by the 6th Amendment may be chal. : lenged," the study said. e_lect~onically delivered mail where.there.is no dis-, _An~th~r r~ght -~he 5th Amendment right against tinchon between the outside envelope and theinside s~lf-mcr1mmation -1s challenged by voice stress demessage and to the person's financial transactions vices that seek to determine whether someone is lying recorded. through electronic funds transfer systems'.. by meas~ring the stress in his voice. "much more data, som,e of it of a highly personal nature, Unllke someone who knows he is undergoing a lie could be collected in secret,1' the report said. . detect~r test and ~an refuse to submit, the person tested Congres~ must someday d~cide, it sa~d, "wh~ther bythese new devices_ !Jlatbe iiven te~ti~ony against suchtransact10ns are to be considered publl~ or pnvate himself an unwitting v1olabon of his Fifth Amend-behayior." ment right against self-incrimination. ."Psychology~based" uses .of computers includ. Rep: George Brown Jr. (D-Calif,), a memberof the Constitutional rights are being jeopardized by new technology, the report said, especially by the enhanced, ability 9f computers to record people's activities and interests and to fredict their future behavior. ing their use t.~ predict behavior -raise other questions. House Sc.ience a~d Technology Committee, said the reThe r~port sa,id: port persuaded him of the urgency of the need "to better "Much research has been done on the application of understand and plan for the changes to come before the computer-based social science and statistical models to rush of events forecloses some of the options now availfiles of personal data and the result of psychological able for developing and managing information science tests in order to predict behavior. Techniques are being and technology as a vital national resource." studied for detecting tendencies toward Juvenille deli.-~ For example, with a device .that records what books someone checks out from a library "an accurate profile of an individual's jnterests and attitudes could be provided by a complete dossier on that person's r.eading habits," t~e report said. 1 Information that is now unrecorded will become collectable in computer data banks, the report said. "Electronic mail and electronic point of sale systems (which record a customer's purchases), for exam, ple, collect and store more data than the systems they :replaced." : Under existing law, police are permitted to watch 'daily public activity without a warrant. Even the envelopes of the mail someone gets can be studied. Ifthe observation is extended to survei~lance uf quency, drunken driving or violent anti-social behavior 1 and for security checks by the government." .: .B~sinessesm_ay some i)ay use such comp~ter-based .. j pred1ct10ns to decide whether to,extend credit or insur, arice to people or give-them jobs. ''On the other hand, society cannot imprison ~ person who a computer model predicts may someday rob a ~ank," the report said. "But should that knowledge be "r.easonable cause' to monitor such a person closely or deny employment?" Computers already are used by lawyers and prose; cutors in compiling dossiers on potential jurors and se_ekingto predict how they will react in the jury room. This article appeared in approximately 120 newspapers across the country,

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE San Diego Evening Tribune Noyemb.er 3? 1982 S11oopi11g c(,rr1pt1ter may peril rights, Cort~{~~s warned WASHINGTON (UPI) -Law-abiding citizens beware: computers may one day deny you free speech, due pro .. cess, an uncensored press and other constituti9nally protected rights. That, at least, is "':hat Congress's D~cJ:Ln.ology --~ssessment war!j,ed m a report released last week. Advanced computer technology, while enhancing law enforcement efforts in detecting crime, raises constitu tional questions involving privacy, surveillance and search and seizure, the report said. The .office-said although computer technology has en. tered every aspect of American life from criminal records to mail, phone calls and shopping habits there is little legal precedent for applying constitutional law to issues raised by computer-based information systems. The implications, the report said, could affect freedom of speech and press, protPctions ;igainst unreasonable search and seizure and self-incrimination, guarantees of due process of law, the right to a trial by impartial jury, due process and equal protection of the laws. In addition to helping law enforcement officials gather and store information on crimes and criminals, it said computers may eventually be used to predict criminal tendencies. "Techniques are being studied for detecting tendencies toward juvenile delinquency, drunken driving or violent antisocial behavior and for security checks by the government," the report said. Computer-based predictions could also be usep to approve credit, determine insurability or hiring and pro .. rooting employees, it said. "Essentially, individuals may be denied rights, privileges and benefits based, not on past performance, but on a prediction of future tendencies."_ Freedom of speech, as defined in the First Amendment, is open to threat by surveillance by government and pri vate organizations that could, "in fact, suppress or chill freedoms of speech, assembly and even religion," it said. "National information systems may provide mechanisms for surveillance that penetrate more deeply into an individual's privacy than was previously possible," it said, .. thus threatening rights guaranteed under the Fourth : Amendment. The report said the use of an electronic funds-transfer system to gather information on shopping habits "would be far more intrusive, since much more data, some of it of a highly personal nature, could be collected in secret." Finally, the computer itself has the potential for becoming an instrument of crime of the future, the report said. "Customers of organizations using electronic billing, funds transfer, or calculating aids (such as supermarket : scanners) may simply be defrauded," the report said. /\ This article appeared in approximately 25 newspapers across the country.

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Con1j,uter Use To Bring Abuse? WASHINGT-ON (UPI) Advanced computer technology, while enhanc ing law enforcement efforts in detecting crime, raises constitutional ques tions involving[rivacy, surveillance and search an seizure, a congres sional report said. The Office of Technology: Assess ment said computer technology fias 'fflered every aspec7 of life from criminal records to mail, phone calls and shopping habits, yet there is little legal precedent for applring constitu tional law to issues raised. by com puter-based information systems. The 166-page .report said areas of. constitutional rights that may be affected include: -Freedo1:0 j>f spe~c~ and press. -Protection against unreasonable search and seizure. .. -Protection .against self-incrimi nation and guarantee of due process oflaw. -Right to a t_rial by impartial jury. --State guarantees of due process Wheeling (W.Va.) Intelligencer November 3, 1981 .and equal protection of laws. In addition to helping law enforce ment officials to gather a_nd store information on crimes and criminals, computers may eventually be used to predict criminal tendencies. "Techniques are being studied for detecting tendencies toward juvenile delinquency, drunken driving or violent antisocial behavior and for security checks by the government," the report said. Computer-based predictions also could be used to approve credit, determineinsurability or hiring and promoting employees, the report said. "Essentially, individuals may be denied rights, privileges and benefits based, not on past performance, but on a prediction of future tendencies," it said. Freedom of speech, as defined in the First Amendment, is open to threat by surveillance-bygovernment and private organizations that could, "in fact, -suppress or chill freedoms of speech; assembly and even reli-gion, 'I it said. Computer -t'ecords of books bor.;' rowed from public libraries could create "an accurate profile of an individual's interests and 3ittitudes ... by a com1'lete dossier on that person'.s reading habits," the .report said. "National information systems may provide .mechanisms for surveil-, lance that penetrate more deeply into an individuaP-s priv.acy than was previously possible," it said, thus threatening rights guaranteed under the Fourth Amendment. "Informati_on tecp.nology," it said, "blurs the lme between public and private activity," The report said the use of an electronic funds transfer system to gather information' on shopping habits "would be far more intrusive, since much more data, some of it of a highly pers9nal nature, could be collected in secret." Advanced computer technology also threatens the sanctity of jur-y selection, the report, said, with the ability to gather "far more personal da~a about_ r,otential jurors ... legally or 1llegally. "Furthermore, there is a suffi ciently sound social scientific .basis underlying this type pf use to suggest that predictive techniques will, be likely to improve in effectiveness," the report said. "If so, the entire concept of an impartial jury as required by the Sixth Amendment may !>e challenged." Finally, the computer itse.lf has the _potential for becoming an instrument of crime of the future, the report said. -1 '.'Customeri;. of organizations using electronic billing, funds transfer or calculating aids (such as supermar-ket scanners> may simply be ~efrltuded," the report said. _J~

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE The National Journal Nov. 7, 1981 Economy Latin American economies ... The economy of Latin Amer ica has generally had "a satisfactory growth rate" because of increased productive capacity in recent years, according to the 1980-8 l report of the Inter-American Development Bank, "Economic and Social Progress in Latin America." The bank found that the gross domestic product of the region grew by 5.4 per cent during l 980, compared with a growth rate of 5.8 per cent in 1979 and 4.7 per cent in 1976-78. In some cases, the report said, this economic growth "has led to improvement in the material conditions of life of broad segments of the populations." The report reviews economic trends affecting the region and surveys economic conditions in each of the 24 countries there. The report's chief negafr1e economic finding is that the regional balance of payments deficit has grown to $3.6 billion in merchandise and $24.5 billion in the services account, chiefly because of increased imports. Copies of the report are available from the bank at 808 17th St. NW, Washington, D.C., 20577 (ISBN 00952850). Energy The rich v. the poor ... In both the United States and Canada, most raw energy comes from thinly populated western regions and most consumption takes place in thickly populated eastern areas. This causes strains in both nations over the distribution of wealth and raises questions about what role the central government should pay as tax collector and dispenser. Last" April, a diverse group of U.S. and Canadian citizens gathered to talk about how they try to deal with these matters. The result is packaged in a booklet, "Regional Issues in Energy Development: A Dialogue of East and West," published by the University Consortium for Research on North America and Harvard University's Center for International Affairs. One theme is that regional shifts in wealth may be less worrisome than the plight of the poor wherever they are; as a participant said, "In the Sunbelt, there are still many poor people in the shade." The booklet includes analyses by Belden Hull Daniels, Christo pher K. Leman and Neal R. Peirce and summaries of the discussions. Copies are $3.95 from the University Consor tium for Research on North America, Harvard University, 1737 Cambridge St., Cambridge, Mass., 02138. Federalism Growth pains ... In the 1980s, the United States will experience slower growth-both economically and in population-and that will mean tougher choices for government. So conclude the authors of Regional Diversity, Growth in the United States, 1960-1990, a report of the Joint Center for Urban Studies of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard University. "As total growth slows, regional differences begin to mean that one region gains only when another loses," the report points out. That means a shift in the federal decision-making role from one of allocating increased benefits to the more difficult one of allocating diminishing resources. The report also predicts that some of the regions currently perceived as winners in the competition for resources may suffer reversals in the coming decade. The Pacific states, particularly California, and the South Atlan-2004 NATIONAL JOURNAL I I /7 /8 I tic states may experience a "slamming on of the brakes" on further growth, writes George Masnick, one of the report's authors. Among the areas seen as losers, New England and seven Great Plains states may experience a resurgence in growth. Copies of the report are available from Auburn House Publishing Co. Inc., 131 Clarendon St., Boston, Mass., 02116 (ISBN 0-86569-107 X). Housing Neighborhoods in decay ... If sufficient federal housing assistance isn't provided to enable poor people to live in standard housing-and it's not likely to be forthcomingsome neighborhood deterioration is necessary if the poor are to find housing they can afford, concludes Anthony Downs in his latest Brookings Institution study, Neighborhoods and Urban Development. Downs argues for building this deterio ration into city planning but recognizes the political diffi culty of marking off certain sections for decay. Downs also sees the resurrection of almost all decaying cities when the price of the land eventually drops to the point of competitive ness. But that might take a long time, he says. The study is available for $22.95 in hardcover, $8.95 in paperback, from Brookings, 177 5 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C., 20036 (ISBN 0-8157-1919-1). Tax Policy Tax breaks ... Since 1960, states and cities have enacted hundreds of millions of dollars worth of special tax breaks for the private sector in an effort to attract industry and commerce. Hardly a legislative session goes by without some new incentive proposal being debated and quite frequently adopted. By and large, however, the tax incentives have been ineffective in creating jobs or investment in a state, accord ing to a study by the Council of State Planning Agencies. Taxes and Growth, by Michael Kieschnick, a West Coast economist, finds that most companies making investments never consider any other state than their final choice, seldom know about available incentives and, where they do, rarely attribute any importance to them. In most industries, Kieschnick concludes, the level of state business taxation has an undetectable effect on private business decisions. Copies are available for $14.95 from the council, Suite 291, 400 North Capitol St. NW, Washington, D.C., 20001 (ISBN 0934842-09-4). 1:,, Technology The computer society ... Almost half the U.S. work force is engaged in generating or processing information, and an increasing amount of that work is being done by computer. Yet neither government nor private industry has addressed many of the thorny social and technical problems posed by the rise of computer-based national information systems, concludes the congressional Office of Technology Assess ment, In a 166-page report, the office takes a look at future of computers, such as the growing trade in "electronic mail," and examines 14 major areas of law or regulation relating to computers that need further study. Copies of "Computer-Ba~1;,d National Information ~ystttms: TswboQ.1.:_ ~;n:t>~ri:k!i~~o~~cfs~~~e~0~r6s~~~~J~o 8 ~ 2~~). Govern-

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I \ November 9, 1981 &i.m CoMPUTOWORlD Page 37 OT A Sees .. Federal Policy at Risk Study W ams Policymakers to Focus on DP Issues By Jake Kirchner CW Washington Bureau WASHINGTON, D.C. Society will not be able to take full advan tage of the growing number of na'" tional computerized information sys. terns unless federal policymakers focus more attention on the emerging issues related to computer usage, warned a major congressional study released last week. The Qffice ot.,T~fhnolog:r,,,b~~~~!n~ (OTA} said, "There appears to 6e neitfier a strong trend nor sentiment at present among policymakers in favor of a uniform federal infor mation policy that would encompass all the problems that could arise from the many possible uses of data systems." Ihe Q.Ih~Jyqy~sunputer-Based _!'lational Inf';1!!!l~t!~~~~~h.. no!~~na f<:>liIT=lssues," said 4nereTs~alacltol 1ocuson1nforma tion policy as such and consequently the emerging issues are not being directly addressed." OTA commented that "continuation of the present situation could inhibit many socially desirable applica tions of information systems or could create even more intractable policy problems in the future." The report, the product of several years of research, is intended, OTA said, as a "broad introductory exami nation" of national information sys tems and related public policy issues Congress is likely to face over the next few years. It was also planned as the foundation for further OTA study. Nearing completion are related reports on the policy implications of three major uses of computer-based information systems: the criminal justice systems of the FBI's National Crime Information Center, electronic message ser vices planned J>y the US. Postal Ser.:. vices and national electronic funds transfer (EFT) systems. Directed at Policy Issues The report released last week, OTA said, was directed at the policy issues raised by a variety of public and private sector systems, including the FBI systems, the Federal Reserve's EFr network, the Fed,eral Aviation Administration'.s computerized air traffic control system, nationwide computer-based credit card and check authorization services and the Defense Department's military command and control systems. ~As these computer-based systems become more and more important to American society, particularly for government admj,nistration, they create corresponding public policy issues," OT A noted. The study identified and discussed more than a dozen areas of law and regulation that affect information systems or are affected by them, including: privacy, freedom of infor mation, various constitutional rights, communications regulation; propri etary rights (pat.ent, copyright and trademark), antitrust, taxation, government provision. of i,nformation and government procurement of in-formation systems. "There are numerous laws and regulations, some overlapping or actual; ly conflicting, that directly and indi rectly affect the operators and users of information systems, the consum ers of information services and the subjects of personal information data. banks," the study said. Noting there is no movement toward a uniform information policy, OT A said it was not suggesting "that there is or should be a single, uniform policy governing all the uses of information systems in both the public and private sectors. In fact," the study said, "no .. such policy exists, nor does one appear to be likely." OT A did suggest; however, "the need for consideration of the cur rently confusing array of laws and regulations ..,.. and their strengths, overlaps, contradictions and defi. ciencies --. within some overall poli cy issue structure or framework." The study examined in depth the national issues expected to be most important and likely to warrant con gressional attention during the next few years: Innovation, productivity and employment. Security. Protection of government computer systems will become a more important subject as agencies, both civilian and military, increase their already considerable depen dence on computer systems. Government management of ~ta processing. The government is los ing opportunities to use the latest technology for greater efficiency and effectiveness, while overburdened support systems and antiquated management procedures lead to increased costs. OT A also noted there are potential societal questions related to increased automation of the bu reaucracy. Society's dependence on information systems. Constitutional rights. Regulatory boundaries. National information systems raise numerous questions about federalism, interstate conflict of laws and antit'rust, OTA noted.

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE U. S. MEDICINE WASHINGTON, D. C. ~EMI 1\10NTHLY 27,650 r NOV 15 1981 Government Technology 'Lag.ging' w ASHING TON-The federal govern ment has not kept pace with the state of-the-art in computer technology, a report by the congressional Office of Te_ch.!1:,9logy Assessmel!~ asserts~--~ "It appears that, in general, the fed eral government is rapidly falling behind the private sector in its use and management of up~to-date computing 'technology," the OT A report states. Specifically, the report notes, the trend in private industry is toward min icomputers and microcomputers and high-level languages. In addition, it states, the government appears to be lagging in "computer expertise itself." "A principal drawing card for tal ented programmers is the opportunity to work on state-of-the-art systems," the report says. "The job of maintaining a decade-old operating system on an out-of-date computer, even if very highly paid, is unlikely to attract an experienced and talented programmer." The report predicts there will be a continuous increase in the "direct use of computers by non-experts." "Improvements in programming lan guages will allow users to communicate more easily with the computer. "Historically, programming and sys tem control languages have been com plicated and time-consuming to learn. They often require understanding how a computer operates. "N ew, easy-to-learn but powerful languages will increase the number of p~ople who will use computers directly without recourse to an intermediary expert." The r_eport notes that "many compu ter and industry experts" have called the "software bottleneck" the biggest obstacle in computing today. "Microtechnology is making possible enormous increases in computational power through the creation of new hardware structures from clusters of small computers chips," it states. "Technologists know how to physi cally construct such combinations, but not how to use them as effectively as their potential would suggest." Emphasizing software development may be the key to retaining the lead in computer technology for the United States, the report suggests.

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE NOV ELECTRONICS NEW YORK, N.Y. E.O. WEEK. 94,600 3 1981 Congressional report hits lack of U. S. data pollcy ... as absence of software R&D Is criticized Despite the explosive growth of U. S. computer technology and the information systems that use them, the Federal government has failed to evolve a national policy to monitor and protect the interests of builders, users, and consumers of such systems, much less the individual subjects of data banks. That warning to Congress by its Office of TeS,huql,ogy Assess gw,nS,. highlights a recently issued 166-pag~sfocty:--rcomputer-Based 'National Information Systems." Not only is there "neither a strong trend nor sentiment among policymakers in favor of a uniform Federal informa tion policy" that would encompass all the problems in the 14 principal areas of law and regulation that could arise from the use of data systems, says the OT A, but there is also "a lack of congressional focus on information policy as such, and consequently the emerging issues are not being directly addressed." Nevertheless, "there are numerous laws and regulations; some overlapping or actually conflicting." During the 95th Congress in 1977-78, the study notes, "74 new public laws emerged dealing with some aspect of information law and policy," while the most recent listing, in August 1980, showed nearly 100 computer and telecom munications projects going on or completed in the preceding six months by four congressional agencies. The analysis by the Office of Technology Assessment also expressed concern over the absence of broad-based Federal research and development support for computer technology and the concentration of the bulk of that funding within the Department of Defense. It also decried the limited attention being paid by the Government to what it called "the software bottleneck," while an increasingly competitive Japan has assigned that problem a high priority. "An important issue is whether research in the applications of computer technology to problems in the civilian sector-in such areas as education, health, transportation, environmental quality, and job safety-is receiving adequate Federal support," says the OTA study. Moreover, "eliminating software bottlenecks may be the key to main taining the [U. S.] lead in computer technology in the coming decade. In ,Japan, for example, the software problem has now been given a very high priority for R&D. In the U.S., although a few defense agencies are investing in research to solve some of the problems, Federal R&D budgets for computer science and technology have not accorded software a similar priority." Citing private industry as the source of most software activity in the U.S., the OTA notes that "reportedly, one third of the research at B'ell Labs is devoted to the software problem." I I I I I

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Rocky Mountain News (Denver, CO) November 28, 1981 --------Government policie's notably absent--------Social, legal snarls are computer booin price I.. J)r)hy ~OB FRENCH computers; he says, "but only a tiny amount is mation poor because of. a lack of access to OTA, an advisory agency, was created by Scnpps-Ho~a rd s1~rr spent on trying to avert social problems." computer system~. Cong~ess 10 years ag() in order to anticipate The comput~r bu~mess _1s boommg. ~ut Kling sees the increasing use of computers My ow~ feeling !S _t~at go~e~nment 1s not technical change_s under ".Vay ~s compute~s every boo_m has its price m ter~s of social as a boon to those who are in the professional domg any~h!ng to anticipate this, he says. ma~e the1r w~y m~o Am~rrcan hfe. By momcosts, legal proble~s and ~conom1c co~ts and managerial segments of society. But othIn add1tJon, the gap_ between !he manpowe_r tormg the rapidly mcreasmg technology, OTA and the computer industry 1s no exception to ers, such as the elderly, less educated or handi-n_eeds of a co~puter-?nented society and quahh_opes to be able to alert lawmakers to poten-the rule. capped, may find life more difficult and frusf1ed .. workers ~s growmg, Smythe ~_ays. ha! problems before they a~ise. Government characteristically acts only trating in using the machines for ordinary You ca_n t take any ~Id unsk1~,led worker. ~ew ~omputer ~pphca~1o~s such ~s elec-afler the problems are established, and the business. and make him a computer hacker, he s~y~. !romc m'.3Il, elect~o~1c pubhsh!ng and 1~-home electronic revolution is proving to be no excep'If an error is made it will be more diffi-Who runs the sy~tem of networks lmkmg m~ormahon services !Day ra,~e questions ~f tion. There is no uniform policy governing the cult for them to detect it and correct it," he ~omputer systems will also have to be examprivacy a~d how that mformahon 1s transmit-growth of computers in the nation's way of life. says. me~; . ted. ~or mstance, control of the content of Regulations that do exist are scattered among As...,_a result, there may be a skewing effect I~ the guy with the biggest fmancial mus-what 1~ sent out _over cables t_o home computa variety of agencies. Bills before Congress in society between those who can easily use cle ~omg ~o pull the rest of the world around? e~s raises questions abou~ ~1rst Amendf!lent have been relegated to a hodgepodge of com-and understand thecomputer systems and Or will gove~nment standards b;,set up to ngh,~ of _the p~ess transm1tt~ng news stones. mittees and subcommittees. those who can't. make access available to everyone. Smythe Durmg this decade we II have to make No single strategy has been formulated to Kling says legislation is needed for con-ask1e said the country must adopt a long somCe ?f ~hesle decisfi.ons," Wteingartenh sayfs. d deal with social and economic changes that t 1 h d. f r,mma uses O compu ers, sue as rau s~mer pro ~c ~~n. sue as prov, mg m ?rmarange view and develop a strategy for handling or organizing vice rings, will remain covered may come with an mcreasmg network of com-tion about hab1hties, as well as the ~~nef!ts, of problems that may come about in a computerby criminal law, says Roberta Weiner, staff puters. the compute~ systems and p~ovidi~g easy ized society. aide for the House subcommittee on telecom. Rob ~ling, a professor in ~he department ~f meth0ds for fmdmg and correctmg m_is~akes. But says Hick Weingarten, a project direc-munications, consumer protection and finance. mfo~mat10n a~d co_mputer ~ciences at the Um Hob Smy~he, prof~ssor. of slatlsttcs at tor of the congressional_ Qffi!c Techn~!QgY U.S. Rep. Timothy Wirth, D-Colo., the sub vers1ty of Cahforma at lrvme,. says one of the George W~s~mgton-Umvers1ty and a former 't"~$~.~.!l1e~!J9!~2, "It's hard to work in arific1committee's chairman, has said that governleast understood problems with computers 1s consultant with the House Science and Tech-pat1on ,vnen no one has been harmed yet and ment must do for the telecommunications in the ~~ial aspect_ nolo_gy Committee, belie~es the electro_ni~ revit's hard to motivate politicians to make pre-dustry now what should have been done for a Each year billions of dollars are spent on olution may create a social class that 1s mfor-ventive laws." national energy policy 10 years ago. Similar articles also appeared in: The Knoxville News-Sentinel The Pittsburgh Press The El Paso (TX) Herald-Post

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE INFOSVSTEMS WHEATON, Ill MONTHLY 110,300 OCT 1981 DP applications seen vital to telecommunications growth A Congressional study suggests that the development of government regulatorr policy in the years ahead will be the major factor determining the direction of technological telecommunications advances. Indeed, according to the report by the Congressional Office of _T$chn<~losr Asses;.;~~! ((?T "any new technology that w1IT's1grnf1cantly impact telecommunication in this century is in all probabiUty known today and available, at least to some extent." The single possible exception, it adds, "could be breakthroughs in software technology." The OT A assessment is intended to help Congress deal with issues concerning the future structure of domestic telecommunications. Discussing technological advances, it notes a dramatic reduction in costs of datacomm, accompanied by an increase in processing speeds. As a result, it says, "The cost of computer power is a small fraction of what it was two decades ago." Peering ahead into the coming two decades, the OT A sees among anticipated trends and developments: Increased use of digital techniques and very-large-scale circuit integration to expand and improve services. Accelerated use of computer programming to administer telecommunications systems. Need for new policies and mechanisms to monitor the nature and rate of use of new technologies, if applications and their impacts are to be adequately measured and assessed. (

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DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM T.V. CLIPS October 26, 1981 6:00-8:00 PM Cable News Network Primenews 120 Bill Zimmerman reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 6 2 9 7 Y According to a report to eongress, computer technology is growing so fast that constitutional rights of individuals are being jeopardized. The report was published by the Q!!,,S~f'J~~l!n.9-logx Al2~~~~t. It sees the day when compti?ers can compile highly detailed dossiers on the lives of just about everybody. This could be done, the report said, by using such reference material as library cards, credit cards and legal documents. The study also foresees the day when computers can accurately predict who is most likely to commit crimes, who should not be extended credit and who should sit on a jury. The study says technical advances now are outstripping the government's ability to respond .. The report warns that questions about computer technology must be addressed soon.

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE Lpng Beach (CA) Press-Telegram November 1, 1981 lf you're innocent, ~11 it to. a Computer can make good guesses about which = puter technology offers children are likely to turn larcenous ..,. 1a-=that or violent. Prison wardens can make I p IIUIIS In Cflffl& war good gueSS8S about Which Of their tshou. Id resist to preserve departing guests will resume their acy.and individual battle with the law. We could now nity. .. engage in surveillance, electronic or P otherwise, of a great many potential eering ahead to 1984t a l,aw violators with considerable gain federal agency has advised to law enforcement and 1 Congress that America will considerable loss to the liberty of all }$ie to decide whether to watch of us. or .eve?) jail --people picked by : H we attempted to use a central c~U1puters as likely to. commit data bank to let computers make c imes. 'ii the guesses, we might snare some At the Offict of Techngloq children who fooled their teachers ssessmeWE_ ~Ii!~#. posed-mar and sQme criminals who had ciety of control over the inputer program to see if alarm, collection and \188 of-personal ~fls go off. That question was iriforn:iation. As one unhappy side qapdsomely answered 200 years ago effect, we .might all start making \lQ8D America decided to have a decisions and adjusting OU?' de~ocracy based on the dignity of beliavior to create a good image for the:individual. That dignity would the datacollectors. e.'v~j:,orate if America now yielded to Unquestionably, Congress needs ~e'. crime-prevention enticements to COJ.1Sider the problems. It should of ~chnology. do so with an eye toward a federal I Nor does technology add all that code of fair information pl'actices ipuch to our ability to predict that would protect privacy and due cpminal ~ctiyity. Schoo~teachers process _.,_ .,.a1,, ,.. ,' :~---~-.: ..,..,.,_ ...... .. ... ,. -----~-----,: ... ,.,, ~-_...,.

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE NOV 11981 Who 'II watch Big Brother? ED!TORIAL t,A recent y issue s u y prepared fo_r Congr~ss by its (~i-\.~.~fJ:~~lg&,Y,.~smeqJ raises the specter of a computer society with 1 ominous powers. The report should not be taken lightly~ Some troubling questions are posed, in cluding: Should computer predictions be used by law enforcement officials to monitor persons who are judged potential criminals~ Just how much of a person's daily life is to be considered public information? Already there are claims that computers are being used in violation of the Constitu tion: Lawyers are using printouts to aid them in selecting jurors, raising the question of whether the constitutional guarantee of trial by an "impartial" jury has been abrogated. The key line of demarcation is separating computer pr_edictions f~om records of past occurrences. In present applications, computers have contributed immeasurably to a better society. Work is done fastet and more accurately with the aid of computers. Tlreir development has opened up to the world a revolution of new products. Yet up until now, government has spent little time addressing the philosophical ques tions of computer use. In an age when technology seems to move years ahead in the space of weeks or mont-hs, the future uses of computers as "spies" on the population could be dangerously close. It all sounds frighteningly similar to Or well's novel, "1984," and the book's haunting reminder, "B"ig Brother is watching." Among computer personnel, a popular bit of shop talk is, "Computers don't make mis takes. The people who use them do." And that kernel of truth is reason enough to give the OTA study immediate attention from law makers, government officials, scholars, psy chologists ~nd anyone who might be affected by computer spying; which is to say, everyone.

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE Deseret News r 1 T LAKE CITY, UTAH n 7n ~,11 NOY ml ., C ? : omRuters .vs. crime. C,. [ :EDITOR'IA~ J The Offke of Technolo~ Assess; men1, an arm of Congress, fias just completed a study of the impact of new technology, including the possibility that computers may be able to predict which persons are most likely to commit crimes. Watch out, America. Congress is trying to plan ahead again but this time a computer is involved. The study raises some potentially troub~ing questions. When such persons are singled out by computer, what should society do next? Just keep on eye on them? Refuse to hire them? Insist on psychiatric treatment even if they don't want it? Put them behind bars? Or what? It's easier to ask such questions than to answer them and no answers have been forthcoming from the Office of Technology Assessment. Let's hope Congress remembers that computers haven't yet been able to figure out the stock market, predict which horse is going to win the Kentucky Derby, or tell which contestant is going to win the Miss America Pageant. Clearly, the computer has a long way to go before it qualifies to rule the world or even to run the police department.

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FROM THE PRESS OFFJ:CE BEAUMONT, TEXAS JOURNAL D. 13,406 NOV 41981 I !Computer problems T~ accelerating rush of hav~ even suggested that new computer technologies the government monitor is creating previously uni-the activities of anyone magined situations that" whom a computer model will pose many new probpredicts would be likely to lems for our society. break the law. Many recent or prospec tive computer innovations make it possible to record and store information that had not been collectable be fore. Some of these records tnay constitute invasions of our privacy or threats to our constitutional rights. .. A study published recent ly by Congress' advisory cfa;r~tq~t~nt~ fo some of the possibilities in information retrieval : that may affect public poli : cy. : : For instance, with a de : vice t}J.at records what books someone checks out : from a library '' an accu rate profile of an individu : al's interests and attitudes could be provided by a com : plete dossier on that per :son's reading habits." : The use of computers to :analyze psychological .characteristics and to :.predict behavior raises a :host of questions : Businesses have ):eport :edly shown interest in using :these behavior profiles in :deciding whether to em :ploy, insure or give <'redit :to people. Some analysts The proliferation of these new computer capabilities will sorely test our open so ciety's capability to adapt. The intrusive reach of new technologies may be grow ing faster than we can de vise legal safeguards to protect our rights. The situation is complicated by the fact that all these advances are legitimate, important innova tions in a thriving industry that is itself crucial to many other businesses. Leaders in both. business and government need to de vote much attention to how the needed progress in pro cessing information can be maintained while safeguarding the freedoms e&isential to all our lives

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE Arl~ns'ti,Y~(Jazeue. LITTLE ROCK, ARK. D. 129.274 S. 154,56!J S-~T. 122 .. 817 NOV 2 2 1981 ,,J TJ,e ~~ttittof Computerization It is not just r 1magma ion hat is causing the unease about computer in' trusion into your life, but a genuine threat to your privacy a)\1d constitu tional rights. This is the inescapable conclusion in a report on advanced computer technology released last week by the congressional QUiSC.Jlf. Technology Assessment. Common sensi deiiiaiiasiliaf flie"repbrt be taken seriously. Consider, briefly, some of the points in the alarming OTA study, which also notes that although computer technology has entered into all facets of American life, there is little legal precedent for applying constitutional law to issues raised by computer-based information systems. The implications, according to a UPI summary of the report, could affect adversely freedom of speech and press, protections against unreasonable search and seizure and self-incrimina-tion, due process, the right to a trial by an impartial jury andequal protection of the law. One danger is that there are two sides to the computer coin. For example, computers help law enforce-ment by storing massive information on crime and criminals, but the -same technology may_ be used in the future to predict criminal tendencies and these predictions in turn could be used to ap-prove credit, determine insurability or even to hire and promote employes. "Essentially," says the OTA report, "in-dividuals may be denied rights, priv-ileges and benefits based, not on past performance, but on a prediction of fu-ture tendencies." Inft.rmation technology, according to the OT A. "blurs the line between public and private activity," adding that the use of an electronic funds-transfer system to gather information on shopping habits "would be far more' intrusive, since much more data, some of it of a highly personal nature, could be collected in secret." The ability of computers to handle large amounts of personal information and new predictive techniques, in the OTA finding, could easily damage the Sixth Amendment concept of an impartial jury. Certainly .the list of warnings and findings make a compelling case for American society to build more safeguards for basic constitutional protections into what is clearly a computerization of America. Congress, in any event, has been alerted by its own ,study agency to some of the dangers that lie immediately ahead. / r J

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE Des lVloines Tribune DES MOINES, IOWA D. 80,709 NOV 131931 .\ too-fet~ view A three-year k!Jf ~essional OfUcuLJ:~hlU?!9~~rneJ?!,has produced a 166-page report on the problems and issues arising from "computer-based national inf ormation systems." As might be expected, the report catalogs numerous fears and threats posed by increasing reliance on computers an~ the growth of data banks controlled by public and private agencies. It is a well-done summary of many of the issues Congress and state legislatures will have to address. But, like the news media, the Office of Technology Assessment can be accused of focusing too much on the bad news. For example, the report notes," ... Society.cannot imprison a person that a computer model predicts may someday rob a bank. But should that knowledge be 'probable cause' to monitor such a person closely or deny employment?" That provocative question raises the specter of "Big Brother"something that any selfrespecting study of computers must do. But a better question might be, "If a computer model can predict anti-social behavior, what steps should society take to deal with the causes of that behavior?" Unfortunately, the OTA report, like many public officials, turns first to prisons and police action as the response to criminal activity and not to social programs that might strike at the cause of such behavior programs that, even today, are being cut right and left.

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE ELKHART, IND TRUTH D. 29,920 SAT, 3f,15S NOV 31981 Comp Eo,~oR,AL Goblins WATCH OtJT or the gn-out slips. Protection lies not in get you, Such is the theme of a the absence of technology, but on post-Halloween horror story based agreement, enforced through law on a report from the congressional if that became necessary, on the Office of Technology Assessment. uses to which particular kinds of The report worries tliat compiittrs information will be put. run amok might gobble up the Bill of Rights and strip Americans of Uses of statistics present a dif-their privacy and individual liberferent sQrt of danger. Life insur-ty. ance, .for example, has a statistical 'It could even happen, if we did not take enough care to guard constitutional liberties. But the exist~nce of_ new technology isn't reason enough in itself to assume that free people would willingly surrender to its misuse. Maintaining liberty against prejudice and the misuse of power is a running battle in every age. In the day, of the computer, it means insisting on respect for the individ ual. Because computers hold much information about individuals that can be sorted and recovered easily, there is risk this information will be exploited for improper purposes. A bizarre example from the Technology Office report sug. gests public library records could be used to put together a file of somebody's interests on the basis of books borrowed. But if a librar~ were willing to cooperate in such an act, it could. be performed also with old-fashioned A basis. People pay according to cat egories, such as age, sex, some times occupation, that affect life expectancy. For any individual the prediction is inexact, but clearlythe statistical basis is appropriate for the purposes of insurance, to spread the risk in a given group. -Just as clearly, statistics can't claim to predict behavior. Although : a computer might churn out the information_ that more cars are stolen by people under 25, that gives no justification to treat everyone in that age group as a car thief. Individuals always have had to set thems~lves against stereotypes of race, religion, age and sex in order to maintain the rights pro mised by the Constitution. Asser tions of individual rights will have to be made anew against the incursions of computers. Technology will present these threats in new forms, but the battle is as old as American liberty, fought in thE circumstances of every age.

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I f I I I I I i-i I FROM THE PRESS OFFICE f.AYETTEVILLE. N.C. TIMES D. 21,222 NOV 21981 .... ;.,:;::-...-.. ; __ ... :::.:: .. ::, .. :_-;;,; ,..::;:; ,;,, ...... .. ,.. .. ~11:11:ii::EBifBri:;, G~rh1ageAL n The modernistic world is full of dangers, no doubt. about it. You'll pardon us, however, if we say "ho hum" to the warnings that computer technology may handcuff our freedoms, read our mail and reveal our innermost thoughts to the common herd: ha~~:s~:d~:~~~~~a!f~f~~~a;~~A%t~f w1~iri]~~ "technical advanaes (in computers) are generating, public policy issues at a rate that may be outstripping the federal government's ability _to respond." Constitutional rights may even be' put in jeopardy by an all-seeing computer that could scan your library check-out record and come up with "an accurate_ profile of individual interests a.nd attitudes" by Government agencies scoring the books you read. might put you. on a lookout-list if you showed up as a "psychological risk" on computer-fed employment data ban~s. In the private realm, your creditors could keep a more accurate check on your debts, and even predict if you were gonna pay in the first place! S~ what else is ne~? Given the time and the energy to fmd out these thmgs, you are as open to these matters right now .as you will be in the next decade of compute~ time. Throughout the ages; in fact, given the time and energy, the truth will out, the facts will be known, those things that are hidden will be revealed, about our lives. It may be hard to believe when confronted with the capacity of a modern computer, but there is still truth in the ancient maxim that, when it comes to the lives of me11, there is nothing new under the sun. Computer technology _is NOT a new god. It is simply a fasterway of getting at the inf~rmation which exists about each of us. The basic remark about computer technology is profound. It goes: "Garbage in, garbage out." Only those who have something to hide need worry that the computers are their enemy. For congressmen looking for ne~ fields of policy to harvest, warnings about the dangers of computer technology may be.a growth business. For the mass of us, computer technology opens vistas of better com.. r muni_cations and more_ opportunities for cooperation \ through shared information. ....----,--,---,.-1

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Technology and Soviet Energy Availability Note: These clips are presented in reverse chronological order.

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December 11, 1981 OT A Predicts Growing Soviet Energy Trade Congressional study recommends that America drop its opposition to the Siberian pipeline, cooperate with Europe While the Reagan Administration and France, in factories which would struggles to define its policy on high otherwise be starving for business. technology trade with the Soviet Union, Although the OT A makes no explicthe congressional QJpce,_ .ofT,!!chnolqgy_. it recommendations for U.S. policy on Assessment (OTA) has taken a long look energy trade, the one option described ~estion"'aiia decided that the new most favorably is called "the commerpolicy, whatever it may be, will not have cial perspective." Barring a breakdown much impact on Soviet energy develop-in relations of the kind that would obviment. ously occur after a Soviet invasion of The OTA found that the Soviet oil and Poland, the OTA says, a relaxation of gas industries are the only ones that rely trade restrictions seems to make the to any significant degree on foreign immost sense. "Given the relatively limited ports. And the OTA concludes, in a 397-opportunities for the United States alone page report released on 17 November,* to significantly influence Soviet energy that the Soviets will continue to develop availability in the present decade, and their oil and gas fields at a fairly steady given the difficulty which would certain pace, with Japanese and European as-ly arise in attempting to persuade Ameri sistance, regardless of what the United ca's allies to. curtail their own energy States does. relations with the U.S.S.R., U.S. policy Although the OT A suggests that a comakers might well chose not to expend ordinated trade boycott among all the political 'chips' ... by making Soviet industrialized nations might delay the energy development an area of contendevelopment of large gas fields in Sibe-tion." It would be more profitable the ria, whose output is critical to Soviet economic plans for the l980's, there is no evidence that such a boycott would succeed if attempted. The effort to cut off sales of high technology goods to the Soviets after the invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, the OTA claims, penalized chiefly American exporters. It did not dis courage French, German, or Japanese companies, which actually increased their sales to the U.S.S.R. during 1980. U.S. firms clearly have something like a monopoly control of a few specialized types of petroleum-related technology. But the OT A report concludes that these goods-such as high-capacity submers ible pumps and computerized seismic data collection systems-are not essen tial to the Soviets' development plans. Soviet managers may adapt by using inferior substitutes or simply go without. The pace of development may slacken, but will not halt because of a U.S. boy cott. The one item supplied by the West which is essential and unavailable from domestic Soviet factories-56-inch steel pipe-is not even manufactured in the United States. It is being made by steel forgers in West Germany, Japan, Italy, *"Technology and Soviet Energy Availability." U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, project director Ronnie Goldberg. The Reagan Adminis tration has not yet formed a coherent position on the prickly issues involving Soviet trade. OTA suggests, to concentrate America's suasive powers on a program to reduce the risks of European reliance on Soviet oil and gas. The United States could aid Europe in building stockpiles, opening new sources of supply, and installing dual burning capability in furnaces so that Europeans would be able to substitute oil for gas in the event of a supply cutoff. The Reagan Administration has not yet formed a coherent position o'n the prickly issues involving Soviet trade. Al though Administration spokesmen de scribe Soviet behavior in the harshest terms, the President himself decided in April to lift the embargo on sales of American grain to the U.S.S.R., 1m-1216 0036-8075/8l/121 l-1216$0l.00/O Copyright !981 AAAS posed in 1980 after the Soviets invaded Afghanistan. In justification, Commerce Department officials say that the grain was available from other sources and that the embargo punished American farmers, not Soviet generals. The President has upheld the Carter Administration's ban on sales of certain industrial items-particularly oil indus try technology-imposed initially in July 1978 to protest the mistreatment of Sovi et dissidents. At the same time the Com merce Department has been ordered to speed up the granting of export licenses to firms wishing to ship products to the U.S.S.R. As department officials explain it, petroleum hardware may be exported; technology may not. The distinction is not always clear, but the terms are meant to distinguish industrial goods from the machinery and expertise that would per mit the Soviets to produce the goods themselves. The Commerce Department boasts that since January, the backlog in unprocessed export licenses has dropped from 2000 to 200. The Administration is still divided on what should be done about oil and gas technology, which is of greatest interest to the Soviets. U .S.-Soviet trade in this area, if permitted, could grow signifi cantly in the 1980's. At the moment, each proposed sale is reviewed individ ually. If the proposal does not amount to a transfer of technology, and if hardware of the same general description is avail able from other countries, a license is usually granted. The OT A notes that the Soviets have also been cautious about ordering goods from the United States, for, like Americans, they do not want to become overly dependent on a poten tially hostile supplier. According to the OTA, the United States exported less than 10 percent of the $3.4-billion worth of energy-related goods shipped to the U.S.S.R. in 1979. Officials in several government depart ments say the President has on his desk an option paper on trade policy, the latest of several such documents drafted by the bureaucracy. In the words of one State Department aide, "We've given him papers before, but they always come back the same: none of the boxes are SCIENCE, VOL 214, l I DECEMBER 1981

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checked." Defense officials, led by As sistant Secretary Richard Perle, are pressing for a more restrictive policy while others in State are asking the Ad ministration to permit U.S. firms. to ex pand business with the Soviets. The President has not chosen sides, and aides cannot predict when he will. Under Sec retary of Commerce Lionel Olmer told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on 14 October that within 2 or 3 weeks the Administration would have some guidelines for export controls. No policy has been decided on yet, and a staff aide at the National Security Council says, "I've given up predicting when it will happen." One of the Administration's greatest concerns, voiced by both Olmer and Perle, is that the Soviets will develop their energy resources rapidly and accu mulate a large cash surplus from exports. This income, it i!i argued, could be used to purchase critical supplies from the West, compensating for the failures of the Soviet economy. One National Se curity Council (NSC) staff member ar gues that the more foreign income the Soviet Union has, the greater its freedom to indulge in global intrigue. He said, for example, that Soviet support for the Cu ban economy depends in part on the amount of surplus foreign currency available. The NSC official added that the White House is undertaking a general review of the risks and benefits of engag ing in economic war with the Soviet Union, and he hoped that a comprehen sive policy would be announced "soon," meaning sometime before the spring. After reviewing the most recent data on Soviet oil and gas, the OT A reached a couple of important conclusions. First, the Soviets will find it difficult to main tain oil production at a steady !_eve! during the late 1980's, but they probably will not find it as difficult as the American Central Intelligence Agency has predict ed. The OT A report finds it unlikely that the Soviets will have to buy oil on the international market to rriake up for fail ures of. domestic production. (That is what the CIA predicted in 1977 and reiterated in a slightly modified form this year.) In fact, the OTA found that the CIA's forecast for Soviet oil production was the lowest of nine credible estimates recently made by Western experts. The CIA may have leaned too heavily on the assumption that Soviet waterflooding techniques were destroying oil reser voirs. The OT A concludes that although American technology has been and could continue to be very helpful to the Sovi ets, it is not essential. For example, the OTA reports that the Soviets have done quite well for 3 years without replacing some valuable American pumps pur chased between 1974 and 1978 and con sidered to be without equal in efficiency and durability. The pumps were thought to have been responsible for increasing oil output by I million barrels a day. Because the United States refused to allow the manufacturer to train the Sovi ets in repairing the machinery, and be cause all the pumps would require re pairs by now, the OT A assumes that they have been junked or duplicated domestically. In any case, no drop in oil production has been noticed. It is unlikely that the_ Soviet Union will encounter an oil supply crisis, the OTA concludes, but neither will the Soviets be able to increase production dramatically. Second, the OT A believes that the Soviets will be able to increase natural gas output, perhaps boosting it by as much as 40 percent from 1980 to 1985. This will be possible only if other nations are willing to export the steel pipe, com pressors, and flow-control equipment that Soviet factories cannot produce in sufficient quantities. While U.S. firms may control some of the more sophisti cated varieties of oil technology, many nations can produce the less specialized equipment required to tap the huge and relatively unexploited Soviet gas fields. There is a large incentive, too. As the OTA says, the Soviet Union is the Saudi Arabia of natural gas, holding proved reserves equivalent to well over 200 bil lion barrels of oil. Several western European nations have essentially agreed to finance the construction of new Soviet gas lines to Siberia in return for long-term gas supply contracts (Science, 27 November, p. 1004). Although the Reagan Administra tion is trying to stop the deal, OT A says it must be regarded as a fait accompli. The OT A report notes that if the project proceeds as planned, it will bring about a quantum leap in European-Soviet inter dependence: "The value of the equip ment needed for the pipeline is double the value of all the exports of the indus trial West to the U.S.S.R. in the year 1979," the report says. Europe may cut its dependence on OPEC but will increase dependence on the Soviet Union. Many observers esti mate, for example, that West German use of Soviet gas will grow from 16 to around 30 percent, although some say the figure will rise to 40 percent by the end of the century. it is difficult to judge how this will affect overall energy reli ance on the Soviet Union, for it is likely that Soviet oil exports wili decline. The central question, according to the OT A, is not whether the Soviet gas deal can be stopped. That appears unlikely, given the Europeans' interest in selling steel and finding non-OPEC energy sup pliers. Furthermore, the OT A claims, there is no attractive substitute for Soviet gas in this decade. The important question is, "Whether the Western na tions can act to limit the risks involved" in trading with the Soviets. It will be much easier to cooperate on reducing risks, the OTA says, if the United States realistically confronts the fact that Euro/ pean-Soviet energy trade will flourish in I the 1980's.-ELIOT MARSHALL i

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE Forbes Magazine December 7, 1981 The Soviet fuel future How much oil will the Soviet Union, the world's biggest producer, be pumping in 1985? The answer de pends on whose numbers you read. Western estimates run from 10 mil lion to 11 million barrels a day, the choice of CIA analysts, up to 14 mil lion barrels daily, the figure used by The Economist's intelligence unit. The official Soviet plan calls for 12.5 mil lion to 12.9 million barrels and actual output for 1980 was 12 million barrels a day. Taking a broader view, Con gress' Qffii::.e" of .Ieclmalog ... Asse~c--..m.e.i;i,t,, say~ Soviet coal production is virtually stagnant and 9il is not likely to increase quickly, so that in its view "gas is the key to the Soviet energy future in this decade." Gas reserves in the U.S.S.R., fhe OTA says, may be compared with Saudi Arabia's oil, use ful in replacing oil in domestic consumption and as a hard-currency ex port. The importance of the role of gas, the OTA adds, will depend on how fast the Russians can build pipe lines to carry it.

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE CHEMICAL AND ENGINEERING NEWS WASHINGTON, D. C. w. 115,000 DEC 7 1981 I Gas reserves key to Soviet energy future The agreement signed late last month between the U.S.S.R. and West Ger many's Ruhrgas A.G., which is ex pected to clear the way for construc tion of a 3600-mile natural gas pipe line from western Siberia to delivery points on the Czechoslovakia-West German and Austrian borders, bol sters the conclusion of a recent .Qt. fice of Techn .ssm.e.Di.study at 1t 1s ighly unlikely that the Soviet Union itself or the Soviet bloc as a whole will become a net energy importer in the 1980's." According to OT A, oil is not the key to Soviet energy performance in the 1980's, despite declining growth in that country's oil production. Rather, the key is how much energy it can produce. And although pros pects for increased energy from coal are poor, and projections for nuclear power overoptimistic, OT A believes the Soviets' own goal of a small rise in oil output by 1985 is reasonable. However, gains in total energy pro duction will have to come from gas, where the Soviet Union has huge proven reserves. And here OT A says the rate of construction of new pipe lines both for domestic use and for export is the most important determinant of the extent to which Soviet gas can be utilized. OTA, at the request of three Con gressional committees, studied the questions of whether, how, and to what extent the U.S., either itself or in concert with its western allies, could affect the energy future of the Soviet Union. OTA basically found that a U.S. policy that tried to re strict Soviet access to energy tech nology could not succeed without the cooperation of Japan, West Ger many, France, Italy, and the U.K., all of which export energy technol ogy to the Soviet Union and, in turn, import energy supplies from the So viet Union. These relationships are unlikely to change. Acting alone, the U.S. could not deter Soviet energy development be cause it is not the predominant, let alone sole, supplier of energy equip ment and technology. In fact, the U.S. does not even produce the large diameter pipe that is the U.S.S.R.'s single most important energy-related import. On the other hand, a U.S. policy to bolster Soviet energy production also would not succeed, OT A says, primarily for the same reasons that a deterence policy wouldn't work. D

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE DEC ENGINEERING NWs. RECORD NEW YORK, N! \'. w. 104,800 3 1981 i Soviet gas to Europe West Germans sign deal tor deliveries by 1984 The Soviet Union has scored a victory in its effort to build a 3,500-mile, $10billion natural gas pipeline from western Siberia to Western Europe. A West Ger man gas company has signed an agree ment with the Soviets that calls for deliv eries of 370 billion cu ft per year of Siberian gas beginning in 1984. The Soviets are next expected to sign final delivery agreements with French and Italian gas firms. Although the Reagan administration opposes construction of the pipeline on the grounds that U.S. allies may become overly dependent on Soviet gas, it has been unable to slow the project's momen tum (ENR 10/29 p. 28). A report pre pared by the congressional Office of T~hnologx.,.bs~!!SS!J;_!;,TUjOTA) l'1nds that the U"s:i:s unlikely to be able to exert any substantial pressure to stop construction by placing an embargo on sales of U.S. equipment or materials the Soviets might seek, largely because many such items are available from foreign suppliers. The OTA report also notes there are only a few pieces of equipment-other than a unique computer. used for deep drilling of oil-that the Soviets could not buy elsewhere to support their production of other fuels such as oil and coal. In fact, OTA points out, the U.S. does not even produce the large-diameter pipe the Soviets will need for building the line to Western Europe. The Soviets are negoti ating with the Japanese for steel pipe that is believed intended for the gas line. "West Germany, France and Italy all look to Siberia as a way to increase and diversify energy supplies while at the same time increasing exports of energy equipment and technology," OTA says. o

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE United Press International Business & Finance Wire December 1, 1981

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A ro~,r~~orr; WILL MOST i.rJ':,OSii\ \'}' ')A~A~1rT 1:? I'll ~::n: ?;vrp' f'.'"", 1 '' '. _,.. '. ., -~ t AS CAV 3 15 )J ..;MI u-? '1, 12~01::::s1 ...

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE NEW YORK, N.Y NEWS WORLD D. 72,510 DEC 1 1981 1 Danger to free world a S t ha ve no sa~ Sen.JakeGarn,R-Utah,chairmanoftheSenateBankingCommit-0 \ tee and a longtime opponent of strategic technology exports to t_he. Soviet Union, termed the multibillion-dollar pipeline deal a "maJor s E'' foreignpolicydefeat"fortheUnitedStatesandonethatposesdanger' ln o i\11.et u r ope "tothesecurityoftheentirefreeworld." Garn blamed the Carter administration for "acquiescing" to the pipeline project when it was still in the formative stages in the d II mid-1970s, and said 'the Reagan administration's efforts to block the e \ nergy ea 1ngs dealatthellthhourwerenotcredible,. . "The [Carter] administration did nothing while the enemy gath-ered bis forces," Garn said at a hearing last month on the pipeline project. -. Co rnig n "President Reagan sounded the battle cry at [the] Ottawa [ecort I c., nomic] summit, but our ar'my never seemed to have mustered," he n 1 added. Finally, when a U.S. delegation. did travel to Bonn just weeks r O icy,--. before the deal was due to be finalized, the project was too far .down R theroad. epO rt "According to the reports, we looked rather foolish," Garn noted .... ____ ;..,__--,;._..:.... ___ _;..______________ The OTA, an arm of Congress, says in its new report that Soviet gas By Ted Aqres WASHINGTON The United States will be unable to have any effect on the Soviet Union's access to and supply of _energy'to this decade meaning that the Kremlin will be able to ent~me West Euro-, pean allies in its energy projects with virtual impunity. A new report by the om~~ 9( Tscbnrlo~~ ~ssessm7nt staies that U.S. efforts to restrict Soviet energy w1Uai1, Iackin~ stipport fr?m the Western allies. And the allies, the OTA notes, consider the Soviet Union an "important customer" for sales of technology and equipment and a source of energy supply_as we~l.. And because the Soviet bureaucracy 1s so r~g1d and ~entra~1zed, any U.S. effort to bolster Soviet energy is likewise certam to fall, the OTA states. d i1 The implications of the new report are that the Umte States wi be forced to take a back seat position and watch the Sovie~s d_evelop their natural gas supplies by involving West European allies m con-struction of new gas pipeline projects. The Reagan administration has already wa~ned alhef -prmc1' pally West Germany and France agamst mvolver_nen~ m construction of the Soviet .,trans-Siberia or Yamal pipeline. Th~ ~3,000-mile pipeline could suppl)_' up to 25 percent of Europe s natura:I gas needs when completed, by 1990. .. The administration has warned that Europewould fac~ the risk of political blackmail by the Kremlin should those c~untr1es become dependent on Soviet supplies of natural gas. The alhes have refused to listen to Washington's warnings and last month concluded the financing aspects of the pipeline deal, which would cost between $15 billion and $45 billion when completed. reserves "are tremendous andmay be likened to the oil reserves of Saudi Arabia." The rate of construction of new gas pipelines, both for dom.estic use and export, isconsidered the most important factor for developing and using Soviet natural gassuppries, OTA states. "Gains in natural gas output could more than compensate-both in energy value and in hard currency earnings ...... for slowing growth in oil production," OTA reports. "It is therefore higbiy unlikely that the Soviet Union itself or the Soviet bloc as a whole will become a net importer in the 198Qs'1despite a projected shortage of domestic oil and coal supplies. Yet a_nother policy failure In written testimony before Garn's committee hearing, Dr. Anthony Cordesman, a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars, said the Yamal pipeline "marks yet another major crisis in East-West trade which somenow 'snuck up' on the U.S." Allowing the pipeline to go ahead "follows in a grand tradition of being unready to manage our grain sales and a grain embargo, of faltering efforts to control technology transfer ... and of dealing with the problem of strategic mineral exports on a haphazard and episodic basis," Cordesman complained. Despite this gloomy assessment, Garn stated he did not believe "things have gone too far." "The Yamal pipeline was conceived half a decade ago. It was: brought to life during the previous administration. Had the United States done something about it then especially in light of the inva sion of Afghanistan -we would not be in the difficulty that we find ourselves now," Garn saiQ:..:.........

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE Coal Industry News November 30, 1981 Soviet Coal Industry Beset with Big Problems By STEVE MARCY WASHINGTON An ever more decrepit Soviet coal industry that recently lost one of its chief mentors faces difficulty maintaining current production, yet has been called upon for increases as part of the 11th Five Year Plant. Most of the country's highquality, easily recoverable reserves have long since been mined, leaving remote, lowquality reserves of lignite as the primary basis for any new production. In fact, the lower quality of the remaining reserves means the Soviets could increase production and still experience a decline in the amount of energy extracted, the Cgngressi?.!1~! _QW.t;;. -<>{ Technologfi\ss~SJilJ;IJl con cluded in a new report on Soviet energy availability. Dwingling high-quality coal reserves coupled with a slowing of oil-production growth makes natural gas the fuel of the Soviet future; the country's relationship to the rest of the world in gas may rival that of Saudi Arabia in oil. Only with a huge investment could the Soviet Union expect to significantly increase its coal production. Mining equipment, transportation, labor productivity and the ability to use the lignite type coals of Siberia would all have to be upgraded. The one-time preeminent posi tion that coal enjoyed in the country's energy consumption and investment plans may have died with Alexi Kosygin, the late premier. The OTA study says that the high-priority, that coal once enjoyed in the coqntry's investment plans may have been owed to his influence. OTA says, however, that Soviet litarature indicates the 1981-85 period could be a period of preparation after which production will take another upsurge. Possible preparation would in clude upgrading of surface min ing capacity, coal processing capacity, the stock of surface mining equipment and rail improvements. But even the modest production increases that the Soviets are planning in the next five years are impossibly high, OTA says. The most that could be realized is about 765-million tons annually compared to Soviet goals of 770 to 800-million tons. But even if the modest, but probably impossible, goal is only a respite before new production is planned, the Soviet coal industry will continue to suffer from serious "systemic" problems OTA says. OTA's 765-million-ton estimate inay be too optimistic it says, noting that some analysts peg out put at 20-million metric tons lower. The Soviet industry suffers from its heavy reliance on labor. Although less coal is produced than .in the U.S., the Soviet industry employs over 1-million while the U.S. in 1972 employed only 159,000. The Soviets lag from a lack of mechanization; over 50 percent of the mine labor force is engaged in manual labor. Much of that is engaged in mine repair, roof holding and coal and rock loading._ The mining industry suffers from the same inherent marketing and other inefficien cies that are rife throughout the Soviet system, OT A says. While centralized planning is capable of marshalling resources, shifting those resources throughout an industry to meet changing condi tions is impossible. Especially bothersome are pricing and productivity policies, OTA says. OT A concluded that the Soviet Union must "fine tune" its in-dustry to remove its obstacles, but the inherent nature of its economy made this a probably impossible task. The Soviets must rely more heavily on surface mining, even tually having it account for at least half of all coal production. As this type of mining becomes more prevalent, the Western countries still will be able to exert little influence over the Soviet industry. A trade embargo, for in-, stance, would only inconvenience .: the Soviets their present truck factories c_ould buUd large capacity haulers. Also, they have under construction a new factory near Kansk-Achinsk to manufac ture heavy excavators. Likewise, a commitment by the West to step up exports of surface mining technology would not boost production immediately nor solve their problems in tran sporting coal and transporting it efficiently.

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE Oil & Gas Journal Nov. 23, 1981 U.~:,won't tryJ(} block Yamal gas line ::.... ...;.~~!1~5,r-:/l~ : :{.'..-~;. -: ~:::.--. .a.~;Jt: .. -~~~--._:.:~.-.-:i.. --= .. ;..,. :;:?f)~~\:Jr--:~ ~r~'lt '. ""' '6ffioais.tIDl~s~'-fi~tKECJrnn; __ -.:e / J,"'1 b,ill try to reduce effects of proposed Soviet gas fine t; ~~sterri Europe ratheF'.'.tJiiin block it. Key questions for U.S.: Whether to let U.S. firms help the project and how to negate European dependence on Soviets. The U.S. government. will try to re duce the effect of the Soviet Union's proposed Yamal gas pipeline on west ern Europe instead of trying to block construction of it. Testifying at a Senate banking com mittee hearing, government officials said the administration is examining whether to allow U.S. firms to aid the project and what can be done to negate Europe's dependence on Sovi et gas. No formal action-beyond the pos sibility of a resolution blocking American participation in the line-is ex pected by the Senate. The 3,100 mile project wouid carry gas from western Siberia to western Europe (OGJ. Nov. 2, p. 57). Robert Hormats. assistant secretary of State for economic and business affairs, said the U.S. has proposed alternatives to the pipeline to its al lies, "but thev have been firm in characterizing energy alternatives as supplementing-not replacing-in- creased pipeline imports of Soviet gas." John Gibbons. director of the con gressional Office of Technologv As sessment, said. "foe West Siberian p1pe!ine project must be regarded as a iait accompli in the absence oi anv cataclysmic international political or economic developments. "From rhe perspective of each or the allied ;1ations there are important energy, economic, and political factors which have led to the assessment that the benefits of the project outweigh its potential risks.,. "Under current conditions, predispositions in western Europe and Japan would preclude the success of any attempt to limit or delay the project. A more fruitful approach, therefore, would be to develop mechanisms for anticipating and ameliorating any negative consequences for the western alliance which this project might engender." Sen. Jake Garn (R-Utah), who chaired the hearings, termed the Soviet gas line an economic Trojan horse ,, that would boost the Soviet Union's foreign exchange, control over eastern Europe, energy production, and efforts to "sap the vitality out of the NATO alliance." Garh said the U.S. faces "a.major foreign policy defeat in a battle that we. di~ -not begin to fight until the victor wasalready carrying off the spoils..,.The,,past administration did nothing while the enemy gathered his forces~ President Reagan sounded the battle cry at Ottawa, but our army never seemed to have mustered." The u .. s:s late. attempts to block the. pipeline have made the nation look "rather foolish," the senator said. Hormats stressed U.S. opposition to the project stems from the country's "serious concern about its implica tions for European vulnerability to Soviet pressure and the economic bene fits it provides to the Soviets." He said the Europeans are develop ing an emergency preparedness mechanism to guard against possible gas supply interruptions, including a "surge" in Dutch gas production ca pacity, increased used of dual fired boilers in electricai power generation so oil or coal could be substituted for gas in an emergency. signficantly ex panded gas storage, and better inte gration of the European gas grid. Equipment exports. Hormats said the administration is conducting a "high level review'' of its policy regarding oil and gas equipment and technology exports to the Soviet Union. He said the Carter administration prohibited exports of equipment, such as computers, that might have uses other than oil production, generally refused to allow exports oi equipment and technology specifically for oil and gas exploration and production, and permitted sales of nonstrategic equipment. Hormats said the Reagan adminis tration's decision to approve export of 100 Caterpillar pipelayers stipulated that they could not be used on the Yamal pipeline. He said the U.S. can't do much to stall the pipeline unilaterally, and the countries participating in the project will be willing and able to supply any needed equipment. "A U.S. embargo on equipment for the pipeline could serve to delay the pipeline's completion, but we expect that delays will occur in any case, with or without a U.S. embargo. "A unilateral U.S. embargo of equipment for the pipeline could spawn or speed up the creation of alternate suppliers of equipment in whicll the U.S is currently the world leader. Nevertheless, this is a policy option open to us.". Richard Perle, assistant Defense Secretary for international security policy, said the U.S. should withhold American technology from the pipe1 ine "in every case where such action will underline qur opposition and make available (energy) alternatives more attractive. :, "If we fail and the pipeline is built, we will have to redouble our efforts to contain the diffusion of advanced technology to the East that is certain to flow from the greatly increased hard currency the Soviets will find at their disposal (from sale of their gas)." U.S. lacks leverage. OT A relea~ed a studv that concluded the Soviets don't depend enough on American technology for the U.S. to effectively block the pipeline project. The report said that in 1979 the Soviet Union devoted about 22% of its trade with its major western trading partners !about 53.4 billion) to ener gy-related technology and equipment. "The vast majority of these pur chases-about 52.7 billion-was destined for the Soviet oil and gas sector, and most of this was for pipe and pipeline equipment." OH field equipment purchases never have been particularly large, the study said. "The one area in which Soviet petroleum equipment and technology purchases might be de scribed as 'massive' is large diameter pipe and other equipment (compres sor stations and pipelaying equip ment) for the construction and oper ation of gas pipelines. "There is no evidence that reliance on the West in this area will lessen in the decade. Indeed, given the crucial importance of increased gas produc tion and gas exports to the short and medium-term Soviet energy future, there is reason that such dependence will increase.'' OT A said the U.S. is not the domi nant supplier of most petroleum-relat ed items imported by the U.S.S.R.

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U.S. can do little to affect Soviet energy production A U.S. trade policy aimed at restricting Soviet access to Western oil technology is most likely to have limited effects, according to a new study just released by the C.Ongr~tof!!l mti"-.8'.IechPSW!&.Y Assessment (OT Ai. The report attributes this condition to a hick of dependence on American technology by the Soviet Union and to willingness on the part of Western Europe to sell the Soviets needed equip ment in exchange for oil and natural gas. The report, Technology and Soviet Energy Availability, concludes that the Soviet Union should be able to expand its energy sector as domestic demand and requ1rements for export dictate. What is important to success, the OT A says, is not how much of one energy source is produced but what total energy output will be. Oil is not, as previously has been assumed, the major energy factor in the Soviet Union today. It will be natural gas that fills the demands of the future. This source will more than compensate for the energy gaps of the next decade, includ ing any shortfall caused by the stagnation or decline in the production of oil. The factor most critical to natural gas output and energy production as a whole is the speed of pipeline construction. The bottleneck is not in locating 3'd tapping the new gas fields but in the delivery of this energy resource to Soviet industrial centers and to export markets. It is in this sector that Western assistance is most needed. The OT A study emphasizes the limited dependence the Soviet Union has on Western technology in general. The Soviets can produce almost any piece of equipment themselves except for advanced computers used primarily in exploration. To import certain products is merely pre ferable to its manufacture in the Soviet Union due to cost and efficiency. The Soviet Union is not expected to desire a great deal from the United States. American technological advantages are quickly diffused throughout the world through subsidiaries of U.S. corporations. Furthermore, the most important product sought by the Soviets from the West, large diameter gas pipelines, is not pro duced in the United States. The OT A report looks closely at each source of Soviet energy production and its prospects for the 1980s. Natural gas will become increasingly the resource to which the highest priorities are placed and the highest growth rates obtained. Its production will most _likely equal that of oil in energy content by 1985. Goals set for oil output in the current Five Year Plan are not seen as unreasonable given the best case situation, according to OT A. The Soviets, however, have had difficulty in achieving even these modest goals. Production in the first nine months of 198 l showed an increase of leis than l percent over 1980 and Harvard University's Russian Research Center noted that production figures for September were equal to those of September 1980. The Russian Research Center maintains that "Soviet (oil) production may indeed have reached its peak.'' Coal will decrease significantly as a source of energy and even modest Soviet predictions are excessively optimistic, according to the OTA. Nuclear power, along with natural gas, will be given major emphasis in Soviet planning but OT A estimates that the goals set for nuclear output are also overly optimistic. The shortfall in nuclear energy will be due not to a lack of adequate technology but to a difficulty in producing an adequate quantity of equipment and to construction delays. The OT A report examines several trade policy options open to the United States and the effects they may have. The study refers to the use of a total technology embargo as "economic warfare" and says that the United States will find it difficult to mobilize world support for it. In the opinion of Robert Russell, staff director of the International Subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, the United States may do "irreparable harm to its alliances'' by asking our allies to restrict their trade with the Soviet Union. The effectiveness of a policy of linkage between the availability of U.S. technol ogy and Soviet good behavior is also con sidered limited by the OT A, for many of the same reasons as those against the use of an embargo. As the Soviets have no overriding need for American technology, the United States can offer little to the Soviets to control their political behavior. Conversely, a program of unrestricted Soviet access to U.S. technology would also have limited impact, acording to the OT A. Without significant changes in the Soviet economic structure little more can be accomplished in energy development with foreign technology than is already planned or underway. Limited quantities of credits and foreign exchange for the Soviets would also impede further im portation of foreign technology. Soviet Business & Trade November 21, 1981 The report does say, though, that a policy of cooperation would benefit all parties in removing the issues of Soviet energy from the arena of conflict between the United States and its West European and Japanese allies. However, the Reagan administration is likely to implement a restrictive policy, according to Eugene Lawson, deputy assistant secretary of commerce for East-West trade. -1. Brad Ivie

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE The Florida Times-Union November 19, 1981 Report shatters theories on Soviet energy supply Two ~eories on "dealing with the So-of large diameter pipe for the Soviet viets" that have been commonly acUnion's planned 10,000 miles of addition, cepted, indeed by many as basis for al natural gas pipelines. The report policy formulation, now are contradictnoted: ed by the same recently released con-"From the perspective of Japan and gressional study. Western Europe, Soviet energy indusMany in high U.S. circles have long tries are important customers for techassumed that: no logy and equipment and a source of (1] D~ger of u.s.-u.s:s.R. confronta-, energy as well" (italics ours). tion in the Middle East would rise in the In those last words lie the gravest ( al. later 1980s and thereafter because the beit seemingly distant) danger in the Russians would be running low on oil, entire affair. When a shopkeeper sells a hence competing head-on with the West gun for today's profit he may never exf or Mideastern oil supplies. pect to be held up -a considerably non-[2] The U.S. should not sell the profitable transaction with that same U.S.S.R. energy technology, because gun in the distant future. this would strengthen its chief adver. This is what could happen to our alsary, enable it to divert more attention lies; today the supplying of pipeline ma to military buildup and, hence, be an terials and technology to the Soviets even greater threat. (who would indeed be crippled in this However, 9 study made for ,Congress project without it)-is an economic plus by the :Ow!i;~ ~f Assessm,e4t to the West: found tJia nei1iero~ese long-lield asBut once the pipeline is in place ( an sumptions are accurate because: estimated decade or sp hence) the [1] While the Soviets (currently the Western customers might well become world's largest producer of oil) will dependent upon it as much at the make no new gains in oil production, mercy of the Soviets as U.S. motorists their gains in natural gas production were at the mercy of the Arabs back in will more than make up for it. the 1973-74 embargo. "Proven Soviet gas reserves are treOn balance, the myth-shattering ef-mendous and may be likened to the oil feet of the study seems on the plus side; reserves of Saudi Arabia," the report certainly the predicted lack of addition concluded. "It is therefore highly un-al pressure on the beleaguered Middle likely that the Soviet Union will become East is to be desired. a net energy importer in the 1980s." This would seem to match, if not [2] The U.S. "could not hold back enovershadow, the difficulties, and dan ergy development in. the Soviet Union gers of increased dependence of Westby restricting Soviet access to U.S. tech-ern European nations on the Soviet nology" even if it tried to do so, the reUnion as a prime energy source. port concludes. In fact, this danger could be mitigatThat's because "while Western teched by careful planning to be fore nology plays an.important role in Soviet warned is to be forearmed. energy production, most of that technolA reserve supply (such as the U.S. is ogy is supplied by countries other than slowly building in oily could help by the United States countries that mitigating the effects of a sudden oil would not be willing to halt trade." cut-off hence making such a ploy a Currently the most vital area for less valuable weapon for the Soviets to Western assistance lies in construction use against the West.

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE St. Louis Globe-Democrat November 18, 1981 Soviets fall short of goals In ma1or economic areas MOSCOW (AP) The Soviet Union fell short of production goals this year in agriculture, coal, iron and steel, the chief economic planner reported Tuesday. He indicated the U.S.S.R. would aim for the low end of its overall targets in the current five-year plan, which ends in 1985. Nikolai Baibakov told delegates to the Soviet Parliament that "it was not possible to fulfill the (1981) plan" in those areas, but did not specify how wide the gap was in any of the areas. PRESIDENT LEONID I. Brezhnev told the Supreme Soviet Monday that the economic planners were to blame for a "poor crop year," and food remained the nation's central problem. Of particular note in Baibakov's speech, Western experts said, was the announcement that capital investment during the five-year period was projected to grow by 10.4 percent during the five-year plan. Last March, it was projected at 12 to 15 percent. .-..be experts sa~ the reduction meant the Soviet\ ii would be putting off construction projects and speculated that money saved from cancellation of the work would be used to help meet consumer needs, or be given to the military. MEANWHILE, A U.S. congressional study released Tuesday says U.S. efforts to either restrict or bolster energy development in the Soviet Union would have little effect. The study by the_ Office of Techngjogy A~i.~sment comes at a time when there is debate over wllethe'i u .s. policy should seek to keep ertergy technology from the Soviets since they are the chief adversary of the United States or to aid them to try to. improve the U.S. export picture and increase world oil supplies. The study by the investigative arm of Congress said that without help from its allies, any American effort to restrict Soviet energy development would fail because the United States is the sole supplier of only a few items crucial to the { u,.s.S.R.'s oil and gas industary. ,, ___ .............,,

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE The Pittsburgh Press November 18, 1981 Natural Gas ~nergy Key for Soviet's By DOUG HARBRECHT Scripps-Howard Staff Writer WASHINGTON Natural gas, not oil is the ace in the Soviet Union's long-range 'energy plans, and there is little the United States can do to blunt Russian development of its tremendous reserves for export. So concludes a 15-month report by the Office of T~hnolO~;); Assessmep~ the research. arin of Congress, re easea{oaay y three committees of the House and Senate. The report takes issue with a 1977 CIA report and subsequent other reports that have warned of growing Sovietdomestic oil shortages that could force the Russians into the Middle East in search of crude, Instead, the OT A researchers contend that the Soviet Union is gearing up to boost production of natural gas, with adequate reserves to meet its own needs and to sell to othernations for profit through 1990. The report offers little encouragement for Reagan administration efforts to steer Western Europe away from the pro~d 2,200-mile Ya ma_I natural gas pipeline project with the Soviet Umon. Soviet President LeonidBrezhnev and West German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt are expect ed to reach a final agreement next week. The pipeline will pump Russian gas into the homes and factories of NATO allies, and could provide the Soviet Union with. a financial windfall. \Yhile the Carter administration pursued a pohcy of helpmg the Soviets develop their energy resources to prevent a showdown in the Middle ;ast, President Reagan has taken a tougher line. Since January, the Energy and State depart ments have been wrestling with a policy on restricting U.S. sales of oil and gas technology to the Russians to prevent them from getting an energy stranglehold pn U.S. allies. Earlier this year, the United States approved the sale of 100 pipe-laying Caterpillar tractors, but only under the condition that they were barred from use for laying the Yamal pipeline. The ruling caused skeptics to snicker. OTA project director Rhonda Goldberg also said the U.S. approach makes no sense, since the Russians easily can get all the pipe and technology they need from Germany, Japan and Italy and shift their construction equipment around any way they wish. In any case, they don't buy that much. "The only area in which Soviet energy-related imports might be described as 'massive' is purchase of 56-inch pipe ...,.. a size the United States dbesn't produce," -the study notes. While members of the House and Senate involved in the report embraced it as a "first step" in dealing with Soviet energy moves, not all were willing to concede the Yamal pipeline deal is unstoppable. "OT A may have decided that we are limited in what we can do, but that doesn't mean we should swallow hard and go home," said a s~kesman for Sen. Jake Garn, R-Utah, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee and author of a Senate resolution urging the Reagan administra tion to offer the Europeans a alternate energy package to the Russians. With only 15 cosponsors, it bas gone nowhere, however. Senate Majority Whip Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, said the report gives "graphic examples of the high priority .which the Soviet Union places on energy development. ]n contrast, the United States for five years has pondered construction of 4,800 miles of pipeline to deliver natural gas from the Arctic," while the Soviets aready have 6,000 miles of pipe installed for frontier-gas delivery.

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE Chicago Tribune, Wednesday, November 18, 1981 Section 1 5 Soviets to be OK on. energy: study By John Maclean Chicago Tribune Pr8$8 Service WASHINGTON -The Soviet Union bas the capacity to produce enough natural gas to compensate for any slowing of growth in oil prQduction over the next decade, according to a study by the Con-g:ional What the study means is that the Soviet Union is likely to be energy independent through the end of the decade, arid it rues in thefak of earlier Central Intelligence Agency estimates that the Soviets would be an energy importer by then. 'Proven Soviet gas reserves are tremendous, and may be likened to the. oil reserves of Saudi Arabia," the study said. fore the end of the dkade. "The attention surrounding the Soviet oil production controversy has until re cently obscured.the significance o( gas in the Soviet energy future," the congres sional study said. "The key question for Soviet energy availability in the present decade may not be whether oil production is about to decline, but rather whether the u.s:s.R can exploit its tremendous gas reserves qui~kly." THE SOVIET UNION contains about 40 per cent of the world's proven gas re serves. Estimates vary from 25 trillion to 33 trillion cubic meters, which the report said are the "equivalent in magnitude to Saudi Arabian oil reserves." The soviet_ Union has enormous problems in developing its gas resources, A. KEY QUESTION that long has been however. Most of the. reserves .lie in a United States policy problem is Siberia, far from any market. whether the Soviets will compete directly "Western large diameter pipe and for Mideast oil. This study would seem to pipeline compressors have made dram indicate that the Soviet Union does not wic contributions in the past, and there is need to get at J.14ldeast oil to satisfy its I every indication that continuation of such own needs, altough it may try to do so to imports will be crucial throughout the hinder the U.S. decade," the report said. It noted that The study found there is little the U.S. most of that equipment cotnesfrom West cal\ do acting alone to help or hinder' Germany, Japan, Italy, and France. soviet energy production. A policy of reOne way or another, the Soviets are '.. stricting Soviet access to energy technollikely to lay a gas pipeline to :Western ,. ogy will fail without the participation of Europe, the study said. Although the U.S. allies, who have been reluctant to Soviets temporarily have delayed conjoin such efforts in the past, the study struction of a pipeline from the Yamburg said. field to Western Europe, the report said Any U.S. bid tokeep the Soviets out of eve)! American diplomatic efforts prob the Middle East by helping: with their ably cannot, stop some suc)l line from energy problems would run up against being built. another obstacle, the need to build a "West Germany, France, and Italy all natural gas pipeline network. The U.S. look te> Siberia as a way to increase and does not manufacture the 56-inch diame, diversify energy supplies while at the ter pipe the Soviets require, but Western same time increasing energy equipment Europe does. and technology exports," the report said. "THERE ALREADY HAS been a ".WEST GERMANY has a vital interest lengthy debate on the.theories conerning .in.providing the U.S.S.R. with incentives the appropriateness and advisability of to modrate. its behavior in Europe and to technology trade with the Soviets," said help foster .improved relations with East Rep. Albe~ Gore Jr. (D., Tenn.), who Germany. Japan looks to its trade and asked for the study as a member of the energy relations with the U.S.S.R. as an House Science and Technology Commitimportant counterweight to its growing tee. He has scheduled a hearing on the relationship with the People's Republic of report Dec. 10. China." The controversy began in 1977 when a The U.S. has few policy alternatives, CIA report said Soviet oil production the report corlcluded. Any effort. to em~ would drop to su~h a low point by 1985 bargo oil and gas technology probably that the Soviets might have to import oil. would have to result from some crisis, The CIA has raised its projectio11S since, &t\d might have to include guarantees for but the CIA still predicts that Soviet oil energy supply alternatives to American output will peak and declie s~rply beallies. This article also appeared in: Dallas Times Herald Baltimore Sun St. Paul (MN) Pioneer Press Beaumont (TX) Enterprise-Journal Honolulu Advertiser New London (CT) Day

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE Financial Times Wednesday Novemb~ 18 1981 U.S. 'has limited leverage over .'f... Soviet energy' 8Y OUR WASHINGTON CORRESPON'bENT THE U.S. has limited leverage Soviets have made a big effort over the Soviet Union in the to make many sophisticated energy field and could only energy related items them succeed in restricting Sov~et selves or to do without. access to energy technology in Japan and West Europe are conjunction with its Nato allies, willing suppliers because according to a Congressional Soviet energy industries are report released yesterday. important customers. for techThis cautionary conclusion nology and equipment and a from a 400-page study by-Consource of energy supply aswell. gress' Offi f Te 1 A as maJor ,mp 1ca-;Releasing ,fhe report, repretions or t e Reagan Administra-sentative Albert Gore warned tion. yesterday that w-e .should make The Administration has every effort to work with our promised a tougher line on Western allies; to ensure that sensitive technology exports to our choice on projects like. the the Soviet Union but not yet Yamburg pipeline. do not place laid'out new.guidelines. There us.at a disadvantage~., ... --' are also important implications ".'The rever$e. side of the coil\ for the U.S.-W. European dis-to .limiteii .U.S., leverage over pute over participation in the Soviet energy' is that washing planned Soviet trans-Siberian ton eould do little to boost gas pipeline. Soviet production,. as some' Washington bas suggested to analysts urge in order to mini its .Nato allies in Europe that mise Soviet interest in the they would be better off relying Middle East oil fields. on more U.S. coal imports and ,. But the OTA believes that' it faster oil extraction from the is highly 'unlikely that tpe North Sea as alternatives. to Soviet Union or the Soviet bloe taking more Soviet natural gas as a whole. will become a net through the pipeline from energy' importer in the 1980s. Siberia. . Proven Soviet gas reserves But U.S. allies have so far are tremendous and may .be resisted this argument, and a likened to the oil reserves of major portion of the pipeline Saudi Arabia, the study says, project-to be built with heavY more than offsetting proble~s European financial and techin Soviet coal production and nical involvement-is expected very modest increases in Soviet to be finalised when President oil output,: "', ......... Leonid Brezhnev visits Bonn Senator Ted Stevens saw in early next week. the report a lesson for his own The OTA study notes that the state of Alaska and the U.S. in only energy-related product general. "The Soviet :union which Moscow has been import has laid roughly 6,000. miles of ling in ..massive quantity is 56-inch pipe for frontier gas 56-inch pipe, a size which -is delivery; with 10,000 additional not even made -in the U.S.miles planned. .. ;. : : though it is true that some "In contrast, 'the U.S ... bas pumping equipment which the pondered for five years the <:on Soviets intend to buy for the struction of 4,800 miles of pipe gas pipeline from West Europe line to deliver naturalgas from is made under licence to U.S. the Arctic. There is a lesson companies. .. here-I hope it is not missed." While some advanced com-He was referring to the long puters for oil exploration are wrangle over financing and available only in the U.S.,. the building the joint U.S.-Canadian OTA study says that the Alaska gas pipelin~. ,i 1_...: i,' -. ----... ,_. -; .... -

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE LOMDDN,ENGlAND DAILY Tlfv'IES DAILY NOV 181981 Warnin1g on pipeline The Rl;!agan Administration is being urged to soften its position on the proposed Soviet gas pipeline to Europe following the release yesterday :of a new report indicating that an Ameri can policy hostile to the pipe line would only damage American companies. The report, by the Con gressional Office of Technology A~~~sment; warns fha(' t1fi! Umtec:rstites can do nothmg to prevent the project without total support from its.European allies. It concludes,. therefore, that United States companies ought to be allowed to participate, since the Russians will have ready access to the technology they need from Japanese and European companies. 'J4tlttbt4t4ta llU{lt~tf P.HILADELeHIA, PA. D. 6-2.'5.871 SUN. 82,4.,.._.6 NOV 181981 -Soviets ar~ likely to be energy inde-. pendent through the 1980s. Despite 1977 intelligence estimates that the Soviet Union would be an energy importer before 1990, a study released yesterday by the Congres sional Office of Technology _lJ!.!lllt repo'fts*that the S6v1ets have the capacity to produce enough n~tu ral gas to compensate fo~ any slow~n~ of growth in oil production. Even 1f 1t wanted to the report said, the United States co~ld not hold back Soviet energy development by restricting ; as_cess to U.S. techn~. '"' --i,

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE Houston Chronicle November 17, 1981 FR~porf says techn~logy emba~go by U.S. would not hurt Soviets 1Jy WILIJAM E. CLAYTON. JR. .,/Chronicle Washington Bureau rect military applications," and an embargo would take cooperation from allies. President Carter tried something like that after Soviet troops invaded Afghanistan w., and found "unenthusiastic response" from West Europe :: i WASHINGTON -A policy that either stopped sales of and Japan, the office said. tJ'.S. energy technology to the Soviet Union or linked The "linkage perspective" has influenced U.S. trade Jhem to policy concessions would probably have little policy with the Soviets since Richard Nixon was presi-::.~ffect, the Congressional Office of Technolqgx Asses:. dent, the office said, but "no final determination of its .:meways. success or failure can be made." One factor is that the office, an arm of Congress, put out a 405-page United States is the sole supplier of only a few items of :report Monday on technology and Soviet energy pat-interest to the Soviet oil and gas industry. W'here the ''terns. United States is a preferred supplier (of pipe-laying ;,:, The study's main quest was the policy options open to equipment, for example), the Soviets can turn else''fhe United States. Its principal conclusion was that not where, the office said. ;9ne of the main policy choices open to the United States "The limitation of linkage is well illustrated by the "is likely to have impact. fact that the import most crucial to Soviet energy devel-One sidelight of the conclusions was the Soviet Union opment in the present decade large-diameter pipe -ls giving natural gas production a high priority. This is not produced in the United States," the report said. '?seems aimed at balancing the leveling, or perhaps the Those who speak of energy cooperation assume both ''b'oming decline, in Soviet oil production, the office said. that U.S. technolo~ and equipment could contribute ... .,. '.'90ntrary to common be_lief, .o_il is not the key to much toward avai.ability of Soviet energy, and that oov1et energy performance m thIS decade," the report such a development would be in U.S. interest, in cutting _said. "Gains in total energy production will have to dependence on various oil-exporting nations, the Office --come from natural gas, to which Soviet planners have ofTechnology Assessment said. accorded a high investment priority. "OT A's findings suggest that a~though American tech-""' ''Gains in natural gas output could more than com-nology 9nd equipment have assisted the Soviet petrole-_pensate -both in energy value and in hard currency um industry, the United States is notthe only-indeed, earnings for slowing growth in oil production. It is perhaps not even the most important Western nation therefore highly unlikely that the Soviet Union itself or. to provide such assistance. For U.S. exports to make the Soviet bloc as a whole will become a net energy much difference would require willingness in the United importer in the 1980s." States for massive sales to the Soviets on attractive As for U.S. leverage in the sale of oil and gas tecbnol-terms, but also willingness by the Sovietsto buy in large ogy to the Soviet Union, the report said tha.t does not amounts and allow greater U.S. hands-on training and loom large, particularly without concerted effort with participation in Soviet energy projects,'' the report said. {! ___ .Tsh. a,!=-""'-'*f"'""" -~ ... ,...,,w;, .. --.. .. ... ..fill.b. --~,f!:n!!Y.1J~$.,,'.,'&E.IJ:.~,~i,?~r8~ti\~_)~J~ .. ~,l!liktehly __ .-' e"pvu'-J ultl:'llli:U vi::,, LUI;: u1rn,;i;: u1:,CU:,:,t:u'were:1.n to rmgenougu iraue tO' uave any direct 1mpac1 on e. :outright embargo -of U.S. technology sales to the Soviet overaff foreign trade or competitive position of the ~union; a policy of carrot and stick much like the present United States," the report said. The policy based on ;policy; energy cooperation; or "commercial perspecseparating trade and politics might have its biggest ;tive'' in which trade and politics are separate. impact on individual companies, which may rack up "' Those who talk of embargo often say "that helping the significant sales, it said. One valuable side effect, the ,-;.s.S.R. to develop these (energy) resources is helping office said, would be the "potential political benefits .,bolster the economy of an adversary nation," the office derived from removing the issue of Soviet energy from :Sai_d_. But it said it "found that very few items of oil and the arena of conflict between the United States and its'\' ;ga,s, technology and equipment could be diverted to di-allies." .. -~ ..

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE Helena (Mont.) Independent Record November 17, 1981 Technology ban ~ould not hurt ~viet energy WASHINGTON (AP) Even if it wanted to, the United States could not hold back energy development in the Soviet Onion by restricting Soviet access to U.S. technology, a congressional study said today. The study by the ~Ql,l:~~,!!~~sme~t found that it would take a concerted e i:>rt fjy_ the tlnited States and its allies to block the Soviets from getting the equipment they need to .develop their energy sources. Those who oppose U.S.-Soviet trade in energy equip ment have argueq that such trade strengthens America's chief adversary by providing access to strategic energy sources. But the congressional study found that while Western technology plays an important role in Soviet energy _pr~ction, most of that technology is supplied by countries other than the United States countries that would not be wilijng to halt trade. "From the perspective of Japan and Western Europe, Soviet energy industries 'are i~portant customers for tectinology and equipment and a source of energy as well," the l'eport said. The report said the most vital area for Western as sistance was in construction of large diameter pipe for the Soviet Union's planned 10,0()0 miles of additional natural gas pipelines. Howeyer, the United States does not produce the 56inch pipe the Soviets will be importing, the report said. .. The report also projected Soviet energy production tlu:9ugh the rest of. this decade. It said that even though the Soviet Union is currently the world's largest producer of oil, this production was expected to show oniy" slight "gains in coming years while natural gas production was expected to make large increases. Some U.S. analysts have warned that Soviet needs for oil in the future would intensify Russian pressurein the Middle East. This article appeared in approximately 50 other newspapers across the country.

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE l\fottd1: Jrtsn 3f ufl BUS!NESS & FINANCE WIRE NEW. YORK. N.X. PAlL~ NOV 1 7 1981 _---1,, ---,,y,::-~.c--.,,-.. .-:, ;'"".:;:,_:1<""', :,r,,": ,,,,~,:-,1'."'''',""',' ,~,'''''"'"""''"': ~~~~-,,.\"'.:{,; r F 130R ,F ,. f2 . .. /. cl..!Pl ll 17-:-SJ. 06:4'5 PES ,';<' .' ,,,...._ '-_

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE PLAITS OILGRAM NEWS NEW YORK, N. Y. DAILY NOV 171981 ks:EQUIPMENT CAN'T SWAY SOVIET JENERGY COURSE-TECHNOLOGY OFFICE Washington 11/16-By itself, the U.S. has little ability to restrict Soviet access to energy technology nor to help bolster Soviet energy production, according a studyt released by the \J,:S :J?~fic1~woJ .;$&UIJS?IOJtY .Ruessmen o 2The a.~. isn't the predominant supplier of most of the petroleum-related items imported by the USSR, the study noted. While there are a few items of oil/gas equipment and technology available solely from the U.S. or for which the U.S. is the preferred supplier, "the USSR is either not purchasing these items, is on its way to acquiring the capacity to produce them itself, or has demonstrated that they are not essential to its petroleum industry." With the exception of advanced computers, the USSR can and does obtain most of what it needs for continued oil/gas development from outside the U.S., OTA reported. "Indeed, the U.S. does not produce the largediameter pipe that constitutes the USSR's single most important energy-related import." Difficult Goals Regarding U .s. efforts to encourage its allies to rely less on Soviet energy resources (ON 11/13), OT A said success would require "a dramatic change in the political climate as well as a major policy initiative on the part of the U.S. (which) might have to include concrete suggestions for energy supply alternatives to Soviet gas." .. And U.S. efforts to bolster Soviet energy production as a way to relieve pressure on world energy markets cannot succeed without significant changes in Soviet economic policy. "The rigid, centralized nature of the Soviet economic system not only makes domestic solutions to its energy problems more difficult, but also limits the extent to which the USSR is willing or able to turn to the West for assistance," OT A said. The report noted that Soviet gains in gas output "could more than compensate for the apparent slowing of growth in oil production" in this decade. It added, "The rate of construction of new pipelines, both for domes tic use and for export, will be the most important parameter in determining the extent to which Soviet gas can be utilized." The report, "Technology and Soviet Energy Availability," is available for $10 from the U.S. Government Printing Office (GPO), Superintendent of Documents, \. Washington, D.C. 20052 (Stock No. 052-003-00858-1).

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RADIO N REPORTS# INC. 4701 WILLARD AVENUE. CHEW CHASE, MARYLAND 20015 656-4068 FOR OFFICE OF TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT Good Morning America SfATION WJLA-TV ABC Network DATE November I 7, I 981 7:00 A.M. 01V Washington, o.c. SUBJECT U.S. Opposes Eutopean Dependence on Soviet Gas STEVE BELL: The U.S. is battling the Soviet Union on another front in Europe. The U.S. wants to keep European nations from becoming dependent on the Soviets for energy. But a report to be released this morning by the Office of T~-~pnology 1~~~~sment says the U.S. may be fighting a losing battle More on that from David Ensor. DAVID ENSOR: The report tel ls Reagan Administration officials here to stop trying to convince the Europeans not to sign a natural gas pipeline deal with the Soviets, and to start looking tor ways to keep Europe from being blackmafl~d by the Soviets in the future. The congressional watchdog report says the Russians will have a lot of influence over energy-hungry Europe because of gas reserves equivalent in magnitude to Saudi Ar ab i an o i I reserves MAN: We need to prevent the Western European countries from becoming dependent on the Soviet Union in a way that lays them over for intimidation in the future. ENSOR: Just last week, Myer Rashish, Undersecretary of State, was in Europe pleading against the pipeline deal. But he did not convince anyone. And when Soviet President Brezhnev visits West Germany this Sunday, sources say, a multibillion-dollar gas deal may be privately agreed on. It would mean a pipeline stretching from Soviet Siberia to West Germany, France, Ho I l a n d Be I g i u m l ta I y a n d A u s tr i a A n d by I 9 9 O t he G er m a n s would be getting a third of their gas from the Soviets. Russian pipe I ine workers have used American_equipment in the past, and the Administration has approved its use for the OFFICES IN: WASHINGTON O.C. NEW YORK LOS ANGELES CHICAGO DETROIT AND OTHER PRINCIPAL CITlES Malallal IUPJ)lled bv Radio 1V Reports. Inc. mav be used b flle and l8lerance puipoil8I oniv. It mav not be iapl0duced. act er publlcl'f Clam0I haled er eichlbltad.

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Siberian pipelin.e. are sti 11 hoping to through, fearing it influence. 2 But at the same time, some officials here somehow stop the pipeline deal from going wi I I put Western Europe under more Soviet But other officials agree with the congressional report the pipeline deal's inevitable, and it's time to set up emergency alternatives for Europe so the Soviets don't gain a blackmail weapon.

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE Oil Daily Nov. 17, 1981 /study Say~ USSR Energy Imports Unlikely io 1980s By S. LawrJii 'p~'ti'6on Oil Daily Staff Writer w ASHINGTON -It is highly unlikely that the Soviet Union or the Soviet bloc as a whole will become a riet ehergy importer in the 1980s, a study by the congressional g;cn., of TechnoloSX Assessment iYS, 'The OfXltudy slid gams in natural gas output could more than compensate both in energy value and in hard currency earnings for slowing growth in oil production. "Proven Soviet gas reserves are tremendous and may be likened to the oil reserves or Saudi Arabia," the report said. It noted that the rate of construe, o.~ 3) tion of new pipelines, both for domestic use and for export, is the most important determinant of the extent to which Soviet gas can be utilized. The OTA report said that while._ Western technology will play an important role in this gas production, the Soviets expect to obtain most of what they need from sources outside the United States_; From the perspective of Japan and Western Europe, Soviet energy industries are important customers for technology and equipment as well as a source of energy supply; the report noted. Cooperation Needed Therefore, a U.S. policy to res trict Soviet acce~s to energy technology is unlikely to succeed. with out the participation of U.S. allies, the report said. On the other hand, the report said, a U.S. policy to bolster Soviet production would not succeed without signiticant changes in Soviet economic policy. The OTA said that the rigid, centralized nature of the Soviet economic system not only makes domestic soluti9ns to its energy problems more difficult, but .also .limits the extent to which the USSR is willing or able to turn to the West for assistance. The report found lhat the majority of the Soviet Union's energyrelated imports are used in its oil and natural gas industries, with the most vital area for Western assistance being equipment for construction of large-diameter pipelin~s. It said the only area in which Soviet energy-related im ports might be described as ."massive" is purchase of 56-inch pipe, a size the United States does not pro duce. Available Technology ; There are a few energy technologies available only from the United, States and a few instances in which U.S equipment is preferred the }eport_ said. However, except for advanced computers used primarily in oil exploration, the Soviets are either not purchasing those items, are on the way to acquiring production capabilities, or have demonstrated that such imports are not essential. T~e ~eport said that although pr0Ject10ns of Soviet oil production span an enonnous range the Soviets' own target of a small increase in oil ,output by 1985 is reasonable. The OTA said prospects for the Soviet coal industry are poor, .and even the Soviet's relatively modest 1985 targets are excessively optimistic. Also overly optimistic are Soviet ~uclear power targets, the OTA re port said. It said this is not because oflack of know-how but because of shortcomings in the efficiency and capacity of producing the required equipment and construction of power staons. OTA alsQ found that potentially large savings through energy conservation are not likely to be achieved, in part. because of the rigidity of the .Soviet political and eco'rioniic,&triuwil!, I,.,;.,,:,,:,

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Volume IX, Number 6 November 17, 1981 SOVIET ENERGY DEVELOPMENT Short of economic warfare, there is little the us can do to affect the course of Soviet energy development, according to a major new Congressional study which comes at a time when the Reagan Administration is actively considering just.i;uch a step. The Congressional Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) concluded, i~"'-i"''"4(i5:p~g~'i:'ertew;~that US 'I technology exports can have only a limited impact, one way or the other, on Soviet oil and gas production. The Reagan Administration has already learned, to its dismay, that it won't be able to persuade Western European allies to back off from a massive gas pipeline deal with the Soviets. The next move could be a decision imposing even tighter controls on us shipments of gas and oil equipment. But OTA found that, with few exceptions, "adequate quantities of the energy equipment sought by the USSR are produced and available outside the us, and that the quality of these foreign goods is generally comparable to their us counterparts." The most important of these exceptions for oil, (./4,? J, c/ ---.. .. /'} \ --' .. c./.i// ._;c..-\ ) Congress was told, are electric submersible pumps and sophisticated seismic exploration equipment. However, OTA stressed: "It does not necessarily follow that obtaining the items from US firms is so critical to the USSR at this time that the threat of their being withheld would result in significant Soviet policy concessions. Nor is it clear that tpe fate of Soviet 'petroleum production in this decade is entirely or even largely dependent on them." On equipment for .gas, which OTA sees as the most important Soviet energy source in the future, the USSR is "quite dependent on the West." But the key items are large diameter pipe which is not even produced in the us, andcompressor stations, which are available elsewhere. The apparent failure of Administration atte.~pts to block the-gas pipeline pact with Western European government and industries highlights another OTA finding: "The chances of the United States persuading its allies to join it in an energyrelated policy of leverage against the USSR are as small as those of obtaining agreement to an energy equipment and technology embargo." (Technology and Soviet Energy Availability, Summary, available without charge from Congress of the US, OTA, Wash., DC 20510. The full report will be available at $10 as SN 052-003-00858-1, from Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing Office, wash., DC 20402.) (A Congressional hearing on the report is scheduled for Dec. 10 .. Contact Rep. A. Gore, (D-TN), Cbmn., Subcommittee on Investigation and Oversight, Committee on Science and Technology, US House of Representatives, Wash., DC 20515.) (Continued)

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\ SOVIET ENERGY DEVELOPMENT (Continued) ... (A market research report finds that energy production and conservation are expec to consume a large share of Eastern European investment in the next five years, giving US companies good prospects for exporting equipment and know-how. Potential for Exports of Energy Development Equipment and Technology to Eastern Europ available without charge from Publications Officer, Rm. 4816, us Dept. of Commerc, Wash., IX 20230. Telephone: 202/377-5494.) ... (A report on Energy in Soviet Policy, prepared earlier this year by the Congressional Research Service, is available without charge from Chmn., Joint Economic Committee, Congress of the US, Wash., IX 20515.) ... (The text of a proposed joint Congressional resolution urging the Administration to block any participation in constr~ction and financing of the Soviet's Siberian natural gas pipeline project is available from Sen. J. Garn, (R-UT), Chmn., Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, US Senate, Wash., IX 20510.) .... (Administration testimony on Soviet-West European Natural Gas Pipeline is available without charge from Dept. of State, Bureau of Public Affairs, Wash., DC 20520. Request "Current Policy No. 331.") (A Defense Dept. Task Force Report on US Versus Soviet Synthetic Fuels Technology Assessment is available without charge from Chmn., Subcommittee on Economic Stabilization, US House of Representatives, Wash., DC 20515.) GEOTHERMAL RESOURCES .. Estimates of the world's geothermal resources should be revised to take account of better data and new geological findings, according to researchers at Los Alamos. They developed new estimates for 107 countries and found, among other things, that the total world-wide geothermal resource base stored in rock is about five times greater than the amount stored in water. (Geothermal Resource Base of the World: A Revision of the Electrical Power Researc Institute's Estimate, LA-8801-MS, available through DOE/contractor channels, or at $8 from NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce, Springfield, VA 22161.) INNOVATION/COMMERCIALIZATION The Federal government has long played a significant role in the commercialization of new technologies such as nuclear power, satellite communications and antibiotic But some economists have questioned whether most of the benefits may be going to large firms which have the necessary financial and marketing capabilities to make a product or process successful --a trend which may now be underway in photovolta synfuels and other areas. The issue was formally raised by the Federal Trade Commission staff in energy department activities related to Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) contracting, and was the subject of a special conference last October. A Conference swnmary, with a list of potential research issues, is now available. a,..(The Competitive Implications of Government-Assisted Comrrercialization Programs, available without charge from FTC, Office of Special Projects, Bureau of Competit" Washo, DC 205800)

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Federal Coal Leasing

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE The Washington Post Monday, December 21, 1981 Energy and/ or Wilderness J : T HE STRUGGLE between Interior Secretary cent of oil and gas reserves lie in the wilderness. The ..... James Watt and members of Congress over study used oii and gas estimates made by the U.S .. .'-vhether to encourage energy development iri Geological Survey. The Department of the Interior wilderness areas has advanced a step with a decision strongly disputes the-results hut has offered no spe by _U.S. District Court Judge W. J. Jameson; The cific criticisms. The differences need to be thrashed case stemmed from the Houseinterior committee's out and a consensus reached. ,declaration of a state uf emergency in the Bob MarThe Senate energy committee has been debating .. ; ,shall Wilderness in Montana, in order to stop Mr. whether to expand leasing rights for oil shale
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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE The Journal of Commerce December 15, 1981 Coal Lease Output Pegged to Demand By DENISE LAMOT Journal of Commerce Staff WASHINGTON Although coal production from mines that currently hold federal leases could triple to 500 million tons in 1991, any incr~se will depend on overall demand for coal and on competition from non-federal mines, says a new Congressional Office of Technolo~ AssesLIJl re port. According to the 'report, "the extent of increased market demand, not the availlfbility of additional A general contract for construc tion of the Magnolia Coal Terminal in Plaquemines Parish, La., formerly called the lnternationalMatex Coal Terminal, is expected to be awarded early next year. The 575 million facility, grqund for which was broken last month, is located 40 miles south of New Orleans. See Page 13A. federal leases, is expected to determine the amount of coal that will be produced." Production froni existing federal leases >Vas 138 million tons in 1979. The congressional agency said the rate of growth in electricity demand "will probably be the single most important factor affecting demand for Western coal." Other major factors the report, released Friday said, include coal transportation availa!>ility. and the growth of non-utility markets for coal. These potential markets include industrial use, synthetic fuels produc tion and exports. According to the agency, more than 50 percent of the coal produced from federal mines in 1979 came from the Powder River Basin of Wyoming and Montana. This basin has more than 56 percent of the federal coal reserves under lease. The agency's report forecast de mand for Powder River Basin coal is likely to increase substantially over the next decade, but warned there is a "potential for significant overcapaci ty in the basin" since both federal and non-federal mines foresee increased demand for their output. The agency pointed out that during the 1990s demand for coal in general and Western coal in particulS;r ~may grow rapidly, particularly if coal based synfuels and exports to foreign countries become important" The technology office found that less than one percent of currently leased federal coal reserves are likely to be prohibited frolll mining due to environmental regulations. But it added that some 245 federal leases with about 9.5 billion tons of reserves are likely to meet the dilligence regulations requiring production of 2.5 percent of the lease reserves by 1991. The federal government owns about 60 percent of the coal reserves in the western states. By 1980, 565 coal leases covering 812,000 acres with more than 16.5 billion tons of recoverable coal reserves in 14 states had been leased. The congressional agency also found the patterns of lease ownership between 1950 and 1980 "show little evidence of concentration of holdings by any single firm or individual." In 1950, said the office, the four largest leaseholders controlled 32 percent of all the land under lease, while in 1980, the largest eight controlled 34 per cent. Meanwhile, added the report, in 30 years the number of lessees doubled, the number of leases increased six fold and the .acreage under lease rose nearly 20 times. The major leaseholding categories in 1980 were electric utilities and energy companies, while in 1950, independent coal companies and indi viduals controlled the most leased acreage.

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE Houston Chronicle Dec. 14, 1981 ~:,, --.....___,,.,-~-- .. ,,,,v" 1 ~oal_ produdion from federal leases cou,ld triple in 12 ye~rs, :.-, report says BY',WILLIAM E. CLAYTON JR. Chr6Dicle Washington Bureau W ASlllNGTON -A research branch of Congress repor.ts that coal production from federal leases could triple iil the next 12 years, even without a single new lease; The conclusion came from the ql ARH; ~whose board is made up of mem rs o report's conclusion is sure to be debated by those who argue. about whether. the federal government needs to make IUGtl! land available for coal leas!::f,. The general thrust of ~gan aclministrati9n p<>J!cY, carri ou~. bY ~~f'.i~r-~.~ James G. Watt, ts to open more areas for kwtng to producers of. coal as well as other minerals and fuels. .. "Coal production from mines that include currently existing federal coal leases ('federal mines') could increase from 138 million tons in 1979 (about 15 percent of national production) to : between 410 and 500 million tons by 1991, '' the OT A report said. The reportsaidtbe main factors in whether.its predictions are. met include overall demand for.~. competition from non-federal mines and production front~ federal leases. ... The report covered coal statistics. in seven westel"l') states, .where virtually all the production from federal leases exists ... ,Eastern coal areas, by contt;ast1 contaJ!! little federal land. The ~tes surveyed 1by the report were wi,oming, Montana, produce a. specified amount oflt_ie-estfinated coal reserve by a Colorado.. Utah, Oklahoma, North Dakota and}lew Mexico. given date. '. __ .J Federal coal land leases resumed last January following a 10. year moratorium on all but special-purpose leasing. There is The report said most leases seem able to beat the production considerable interest in opening new areas to coal leases, ooun-~t said 189 coafl I~, with estimated rdeseredrve~ of 7.4 tered by ~ute from some political and environmental groups _billion tons, az:e part o act1~ mines._ One hun e1ght~n to essentially limit production to current leases. leases mi.Qing plans awaiting app~val and could begm .. . .. production.ma few years, the report estimated, and 241 leases Among' :the iss_ues in the leasing_ debate are whether the have yet to submit. mirie plaris. Of the latter, .101 are unlikely to governm~_ t has offered the most promising land~ a~ whether be developed fo~ various reasons, the re~rt said.. _;~~~~i;e~~-~~e~u~~.~!:1 11;~

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE t!frJON, NJ. D. 74,0DO .. This article has appeared in over 70 newspapers across the country. DEC 141981 f,/L 'Western coal, lands may be busy Need for power-is key, not environmental issues WASHINGTON (AP) Electricity demand not environmental constraints will be the major factor governing growth of Western coal development, accord ing to a congressional report released yesterday .. The OtfJGG et ltlG?DP!QPi ~11ess~ent forecast that coal production from ~eraffeases, ocaitl primarly in seven Western states, could more than triple in the next 10 :years. IN 1979, 138 million tons of coal were mined from federal land, about 15 percent of total U.S. production. The report said this total could zoom to 410 million to 500 million tons in 1991 if the demand is present. "The principal markets for Western coal are utilities in the West, Midwest, and South-Central states," the report said. ''The electrical growth rates. in these regions will probably be the single most important factor affecting demand for Western coal." Contrary to complaints by coal companies, the report found that the g~>Vernment's environmental regulations raised few impediments to expanded production. The OTA estimated that less than 1 percent of leased land would be barred from production because of environmental constraints. An earlier Interior Depart ment study had predicted that up to 10 percent would fall victim to environmental problems. In addition to electrical demand, the report said growth of overseas; markets; particularly in Japan, and non~utility markets such as synthetic fuel production would affect demand. TRANSPORTATION costs also will play a role, the report said. Such costs now account for up to 70 percet of the price on out-?f-state coal shipments. According to the OT A, over 50 percent of coal produced on federal land in 1979 came from the Powder River Basin of Wyoming and Montana. Ninety-nine percent of all federal coal reserves are located in those two states and Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota; Oklahoma and Utah. 1n addition to those seven states, small leases are held by companies in the states of Alabama,,Alaska,_California, Kentucky, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Washington.

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE Deseret Ne,vs S/\LT U\:
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RADIO CLIPS DATE December 13, 1981 TIME 9:00-9:06 PM MT NETWORK ABC Informational PROGRA News Bob Windsor reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 6 2 9 7Y A coal boom is predicted for Wyoming and Montana and five other Western states if demand for electricity increases fast enough in those regions over the next ten years. The Congressional_Offtce of Technolo~ ~~,s.s~menf says that's, the major actor in Wester Coaleve opment, not environmental rules. More on the story from ABC's Tony Sargent; Sargent: The report looks at over five hundred leases for mining coal on federal land in seven Western states. It estimates coal production at those mines could rise from one hundred thirty-eight million tons two years ago to as much as half a billion tons by 1981. The study done for Congress, concedes a lot will depend on market demand for coal through the 1980s. The halfbillion-ton estimate would take good growth in electricity use. It would also need plenty of coal-hauling ~apacity and expansion of some side uses for coal, like production of synthetic fuels. Tony Sargent, ABC News, Washington.

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RADIO lV REPORTSI INC. 4701 WILLARD AVENUE, CHEW CHASE, MARYLAND 20015 656-4068 FOR OFFICE OF TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT PROGRAM Morning Edition STATION DATE December 3, 198 I 8:45 AM OlY SUBJECT Coal Leasing Pol icy WAMU Radio NPR Network Washington, DC BOB EDWARDS: After much controversy over al lowing the exploitation of oi I and gas reserves on ml I I ions of acres of federal land, the Interior Department is now planning a controversial lease sale for coal development. NPR's Daniel Zwerd Ii ng has the story. DANIEL ZWERDLING: The Interior Department plans to offer more than two bi-Ilion tons of government coal for lease In the Powder River region of Wyoming and Montana. And that means major energy companies could gain control of the largest, s I n g I e c h u n k o f p u b I i c co a I o f f er e d i n US h i st o r y ~BOB LAWTON: It reflects the free market operating ZWERDLING: Bob Lawton is Assistant Director of Interior's Bureau of Land Management, which controls coal leas.ing. Lawton says the planned lease sales reflect Interior Secretary Watt's strategy to let private industry decide where and when to develop America's resources. LAWTON: So what we're going to do is offer the land that they have declared Interesting, and It's up to them. That's this Administration's position, ls let's let the market dictate demand for a I I the energy resources, a I I m I nera I deve I opment. ZWERDLING: But an unpublished government report raises questions about Watt's coal leasing pol Icy. The report is by the ~~{~l.~i2-~t~ni~~f~i,~'o/~~"~"la}}~~~'g;x;B-ti t I:~: J y s :~ ~: trol far more government coal than the country can po~sibly use for years. OFFICES IN: WASHINGTON D.C. NEW YORK LOS ANGELES CHicAGO DETROIT AND OTHER PRINCIPAL CITIES

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2 Most of these companies leased large tracks of federal land in the '60s. That was back when everyone thought America had an uni imited appetite for electricity. But the demand for electricity is hardly growing anymore, and today there's a huge surplus of western coal. As a result, industry doesn't even have plans to mine more than 40% of the coal it already leases from the federal government. Geologist Russell Bolding(?) wrote key sections of the congressional report. Bolding says that if companies in the Powder River region would simply begin mining the land they already have RUSSELL BOLDING: We would not reach a point where we needed new production somewhere in the year 2000, 2010. ZWERDLING: The congressional report concludes, quote, "There is no clear need for significant new leasing before 1985.11 And Bolding says that conclusion would cost BOLDING: In the Powder River Basin, specifically, there is absolutely no need at all to reach at new blocks of federal coal in the next ten years, certainly and possibly not even in the next 20 years. ZWERDLING: The question then is what's to be gained or lost by leasing even more federal coal now. Chris Farrend (?) is Vice President of Peabody Coal Company. Peabody owns more federal leases than any other company in the country. Much of it is undeve I oped. But Farrend acknow I edges that companies Ii ke Peabody have more than enough coal right now. CHRIS F ARREND: The demand for the coa I is just not there at this time. ZWERDLING: But Farrend says companies I ike his need to begin planning coal production not just 10 or 20 y~ars ahead, but as far as 40 years into the future. FARREND: To say that we have enough coal to satisfy the market for the next 19 years is really not adequate at al I. ZWERDLING: Farrend also argues that it won't hurt anybody if companies I ike Peabody lease large amounts of federal land and then decides not to mine it. FARREND: If you overlease it doesn't hurt anything. ZWERDLING: Because unti I and unless the companies actually begin to mind that coal, Farrend says, farmers and ranchers can continue using the surface. FARREND: So it's not as if we're al I out there raping

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3 the land, even though there's no market for it. The cattle sti I I continue to graze, the deer, and the other animals there. Nothing happens physically to that land while it's being held by leasee (7). ZWERDLING: But some critics say the Reagan Administration's western coal leasing plan say the nation's taxpayers wi I I be hurt. David Olbersworth (7) represents the western organization of Resource Councils, the coalition of farmers and ranchers in major coal states. DAVID OLBERSWORTH: The publ le basically has been gyped out of some very valuable resources. ZWERDLING: Here's their argument. To get those coal I eases next spring companies w i I I have to b Id for them at a government auction. But since the Western coal market is saddled with such a. surplus, Olbersworth says, the companies are I lk_ely to offer the government mi I I ions of dollars less than they would in another decade when the country might need the coal. OLBERSWORTH: The pub I le wl I I not be getting as much a return on the sale of that coal as they would if the federal government would hold on to It untl I a later time when perhaps there is more of a demand for It. TED SCHWINDEN: Wei I, the taxpayer who is the loser. think the harm Is national, that It's ZWERDLING: Ted Schwlnden Is Governor of Monfana. SCHWINDEN: I mean, I just don't believe in turning over federal reserves of energy to the private sector a~ bargain base-ment prices. I'm Daniel Zwerdl ing In Washington.

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Energy & Minerals Resources December 18, 1981 INTERIOR PROPOSES MAJOR REVISIONS IN FEDERAL COAL LEASE MANAGEMENT PROGRAM Interior Secretary James Watt's proposal for implementing the Administration's plan to subst_antially revise and revamp the federal coal leasing program was released this week, and as expected, it proposes to give industry a greater say in determining which lands should be developed and how quickly that development should take place. The plan, parts of which appear in the Wednesday, Dec. 16 Federal Register, has already drawn fire from public interest groups which take exception to the sections that ease environmental restraints and speed up leasing. Those groups further charge that the plan will also reduce local control over leasing levels. The fear of less state and local control stems from a primary feature of the plan which ends federal attempts to set regional production and leasing targets based on expected coal demand. An announcement accompanying release of the plan called such federal activity "anticompetitive and inflationary." Under the proposal, it will be up to industry to select what areas in any given region should be leased and up to coal companies to choose the sites with the greatest economic potential. The plan will also change the schedule for determining whether a particular region is unsuitable for mining because of environmental or natural beau_ty reasons. While that decision is currently made before an area is opened for lea$ing, the new plan proposes to hold the decision until the final mining license application review period. Also, environmental sensitive areas could be leased prior to the completion of an impact statement. At the same time, the O,ffic;;e i;2f,. I~r,;.b.1.lQ}.,Q,g~ ,A.~~-~~--tll_~!L~-Ahas 'released a new report which concludes that coal production from mjnes on federal leases, in the six major Western states containing coal reserves, could increase from the 138-million tons in 1979 to between 410-and 500-million tons by 1991. Whether or not production can rise that far will depend "on overall market demand and on competition from non-federal mines and production from new federal leases," report says. Rate of growth in electricity demand, report goes on, will probably be the "single most important factor affecting demand for Western coal." As of late 1980, there were 565 federal coal leases, of which 502 were in Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Utah and Wyoming.

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The Denver Post December 18, 1981 1Coal-Leasing Expansion Criticized I '! cl 7 ,J .. b >-/ .,/ '. By JACK COX Denver Post Environm.ent Writ![lr ment of Energy. "But our projecplanning could risk violations of director for onshor~ energy anct tions have been and continue to be federal environmental laws. minerals, said the expanded leas that the market demand will stiff- Larry Kehoe, a member from ing program would help meet an A Reagan administi:ation plan to en toward the latter part of the New Mexico, suggested that the anticipated long-term increase in open more of the nation's coal. 1980s and the early 1990s." i}roposed expansion in leasing demand by the synthetic fuels inreserves to. mining was criti~izect The new coal policy was anwould be as unwise as offering to dustry and a growing export mar Thursday by representatives of nounced earlier this week by Intesell huge amounts of timber at a ket. several_ Western ~t~tes ~ho ~~id r~or Se~re~_ry James Watt. It ":'as time fhen _the housing industry That vi~W was challenged, how-the policy would limit their ability discussed 1? Denver, at a meetmg couldn t. use it. . ever, by Dave Alberswerth, a to control where and when devel-of t_he national federal-state coal : The federal plan was defende~ Washington-based representative opment o~~urs. advisory bo~rd, a_ 22-member by Sandra Blackstone, deputy diof the Western Organization of Re-The cntlcs _also _ques~oned the groul? that g1ves guidance to the rector of the ~ureau o~ ~and Man._ source Councils, a coalition of runeed !or a ma~or expans~on of _fed-. Interior Depa_rtment on .coal develage~ent, which admJIDSters the ral citizens' groups in Wyoming, eral_ coal le~smg at time when opment questions. leasmg progr~m. She called Montana and North Dakota. the mdustry 1s operatmg at.a level .. Bree Cooke, a member from Kehoe's scenano "an extreme . far below capacity. They' noted Utah, expressed concern that leascharacterization.of what may hap-He noted that th~~l!&!:~.SIO!ll\1 that demand for the fuel has de-ing additional federal reserves pen:" _Office o{.,l.(}lplology Asses~~~n! .. clined as the use of electrical powwould limit "our ability to disperse Blackstone also maintained that in a report issued this week on IhJ er has leveled off. development through the state." a plan to let industry help deters qevelopment potential of federal Federal officials responded by He saidfhe InteriorDepartn,.ent mine the amount of coal land to be coal leases, estimated that 3 billion saying that the proposed changes proposals would lead to more min. leased would reduce government tons of 'coal could be mined ecoin leasing rules were designed to ing in the Wasatch Plateau area, intervention in the marketplace, 'no~ically in the Powder River promote competition and ensure which is having problems handling ''We don't feel it's the' governBasm alone. that the coal would be available the development it already has. ment's job to say what the market "Our question is, why should we when market forces changed. Cooke also warned that the de-is going to be for coal five or 10 be leasing 2 billion additional tons "T __ he de1:1and may b. e soft now," partme~ts pro~osed _changes in years hence," she said. at a time w~en !his is not being de-} admitted Tim Foley of the Departregulations dealing with land-use Robert Lawton, assistant BLM veloped?" he sa~d.

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U.S. Industrial Competitiveness: A Comparison of Steel, Electronics, and Autos ';;_.,,:

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE Last of a serie1, By Jane Seaberry Washington Poat Start Writer In the 1950s and '60s when the "Made in Japan" label brought laughter, not layoffs, few Americans imagined evet drinking Brazilian orange juice with breakfast and eating .Argentine steak at night, driving Korean Pony cars to work and wearing suits from Singapore. But if current trends continue, upstart countries such as Brazil, Korea and Singapore could be 'to the world in the' next decade what Japan is to the United States today. Not only will U. S. ill'Dls face competitive pressure in tangible goods, but in the swiftly growing area of services such as banking and insurance as well. Countries will become more economically interdependent, making it no longer unusual for Americans to buy pharmaceuti. cals made in Japan or for Scots to wear,American-made woolens. Although American business is still generally the No. 1 producer \ for the world, global competition is getting keener and the question arises, will the United States be able to compete? "Internationally there have been all these alarms that we can't compete," said C. Fred '']lIE IMPORT Flooo Bergsten, former assistant Treasury secretary now with the Institute of International Economics. "Our ~ompetitiveness has been extremely good. We've done enormously well." However, a recent study by the federal Qffise of Technolo Assessment pamts a gloomier THE WASHINGTON POST (Sunday, Dec. 6, 1981) Trade Trends Promise I A. Str~gle for U.S. picture. The,United States must accept the reality of a highly compet itive global marketplace in which America will no longer dominate as it did in the 1950s, the report said. "Markets in the United States are the largest in the world. This is a strength for domestic industries, but makes an attractive target for other countries." A lot will depend on Reaganomics, exchange rates and policies of governments here and abroad. Already the less developed countries of a decade ago are successfully challenging the United States in automobiles, steel, textiles and the glamour ind~tries of the next decade semiconductors and computers. Al ready American businesses are run nip;g scared, seeking government pro ,tection from imports. I(the American public perceives a slippage in U.S. competitiveness in industries such as steel, electronics and automobiles,. they "are basically correct," the OTA rei;1 said. In abso1ute terms, "much O American industryremains efficient and inno~ vattve, although in relative terms it may', have declined' with respect to othex countries." The United States is expected to dominate high technology in the fu. tt.ire. But Japan is quickly catching up~. "Where I .think you've got to wouy is in the area of highertechnology stuff," said Robert Hor rriat&, assistant secretary of State for economic and business. affairs. "In semiconductors, the JapaneSE! are m~king a major effort_ to penetrate the. u. s. market." ];fut the Hg problem lies not in this generation-of technology, Hormats said, but in the next generation. Japan and niany other Asian nations, which are particularly efficient in producing high-technology goods, receive more savings and investments from their citizens than the United States does and they also get more help from their govern. ments .. They are able to build u~ capital and gain an advantage in de-veloping the next generation of high technology. In addition, Japanese firms don't have to worry about paying quarterly dividends to stockholders the way U. S. firms do, Hormats said. "Japanese firms don't worry about div idends.' They can plow almost their money into research and development." Asians "have very high savings rates and manage to keep wages very low and they work hard," Hormats said. But even the Japanese may see increased competition in the future. For examplei 10 years ago the bigiest textile imports in the United States came from Japan, Bergsten said. But the efficient textile production has shifted to Korea, Taiwan and the even lesser countries of Singapore, Hong Kong and Indonesia, he said. Although Americans this year were concerned about Japanese imported cars, "a good deal of auto production may be in Brazil and other countries", Bergsten continued.' Japan will lose. some of its U.S. market to perhaps the K'\lrean Pony or new Brazilian models. And Mexico "has a big ambition to develop an auto industry," Bergsten said. Some U.S. labor unions complained that once technology is developed here it is sold to firms in other countries who quickly copy and improve on U.S. ideas. "People are going to find out that what they thought were the new industries of the future aren't here anymore," said Elizabeth Jager, an economist with the AFL-CIO. "The rest of the world is capable of developing new or using 6~ te_chnology." "We invented robots," Jager continued, "and we sent the robots over : .c..-:

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to Japan," which is becoming a leader in the use of industrial-robot tech-nology. "Less developed countries have become significant exporters of manufactures quite recently and quite suddenly," said a report by the National Planning Association. "The very suddenness of the emergence of the phenomenon is undoubtedly part of the problem." Between 1972 and 1977 imports of goods from less-developed countries by the United States and the European Economic Community have i.ncreased 2.8 and 3.0 times, respectively, the NPA study said. United States imports of manufactured goods from less-developed countries increased seven times from 1970 to 1977 and in footwear and leather goods "there were thirteenfold and threefold increases, respectively." However, fewer than 10 l;ss. deveioped countries have: made a significant dent in the U. S. market and their impact has been in selected products, the NPA study said. Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea took 48 percent of the export business, and Brazil, India and Mexico had the rest. Most of the exports were concentrated in textiles, clothing and electronics. and electrical machinery, the NP A study said. Less-developed country exports to the United States were almost nonexistent in pharmaa ceuticals, chemicals, plastics, perfumes, transport equipment and nonelectrical machinery, the report continued. The competitiveness of these growing countries in world markets is expected to increase while U. S. manufacturers "will experience a continuing decline in [their] market share of world exports in the next decade," according to a recent report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies at Georgetown University. Slow growth of U. _S. manufacturing exports since 1975 is attributed partly to the similar lagging growth elsewhere, particularly in European markets, where U. S. goods were traditionally shipped. In addition, many U. 'S. firms, capitalizing on low wages paid in many developing nations coupled with the advantages of capturing their new markets, often built plants there .. Many American designers send their clothing to Hong Kong to be cut and assembled. A large number of fashionable ~weaters ordered by Garfinckel's, for example, were imported from Korea, said Garfinckel's President Hanne Merriman. Despite how efficient and industrious these foreign firms may seem, they often didn't grow and prosper by themselves. Many received, and continue to get from their governments, protection from import competition and subsidies to develop new products and export them at low cost. Some of the firms are owned outright by their governments. Will the United States be able to compete in the future? What will determine which industries will be successful? Some economists say in dicators will ~: Labor costs. Foreign firms that are competitive wi'th U.S. businesses often pay wages lower than those in the United States. However, labor costs are only an advantage when productivity is also high and enough technology and capital are being used. In the next couple .of decades wages in less-developed countries such as Korea and Taiwlln are expected to rise as, demand for their products increases. Exchange rates. Since most developing countries peg their exchange rates to the dollar this becomes particularly important in competition with Europe, Japan and Canada. If the dollar continues to rise in value compared with those three areas, U. S. exports will become more expensive and less attractive to foreign markets. However, if the dollar's value drops, exports will become more competitive. Reagano_mies will play a large role here. Government statiiiity; ~ome natio~s are .plagued by instability of th e1 ~ g<;>V~rnments which cause fluctuations m economic conditions and poor _Planning. South Korea's swiftly gr~wing economy was halted in midstr1de ~Y political instability that ~egan With the assassination of Pres ident Park Chung Hee in October 1979. Sou~h K~rea's export-oriented ~conomy 1s trying to rebound from 1 its unus~al slump by increasing its exports and controlling inflation and upwardly creeping wage rates. "Everything's focused on manufacturing goods," said International. Trade Commission Chairman Bill. Alberger. "Tariffs aren't really a big barrier to trade anymore. Now we're' talking ,about trade in commodities that you can't monitor anymore." Service industries employ 71 percent of nonagricultural employes and generate 65 percent of the gross national product. A conservative estimate of U. S. export earnings for services in 1979 was $36 billion, but it. could have been twice that because only sketchy information is available. For many of those services there are no international trade agreements. Countries do whatever they want, although some indirect services related to the goods trade are covered under bilateral or other agreements. The Reagan administration is pushing for multilateral discussions on services trade to iron out some technical wrinkles in this relatively new ar~a of commerce. For example, how would the federal government 1 monitor trade in insurance which is regulated. by states? "Insurance would have to be federali7ed," Alberger said, which neither the Reagan administration nor the insurance industry wants. "Maybe eventually we will be 'in trouble" in the services industry the way the United States is in other areas, Alberger said. "It's definitely a trade issue of the 80s." Government policies. Many foreign governments .are tightening export requirement! while providing. their industries with exwrt credits and other incentives to export. Some governments have local content requirements, meaning few if any com, ponents of a prod1,1ct manufactured 'in that country can be imported. U. S. negotiators are attempting to break down these nontariff barriers, but_ as poor economic conditions persist world-wide, governments will be more and m_ore inclined to protect their industries. : Miscellaneous occurrences: Bad I weather in Florida can cause an in1 crease in vegetable imports from Mexico. Or, for example, domestic labor strikes can often give foreign firms headway into U.S. markets. : Imports of bicycles, generally the high-quality, expensive multi-speed types, rose 55 percent in the first three months this year because of sharp jumps in demand for models exceeding $180 and a labor strike from October through February that

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forced a major U. S. bicycle firm to replace lost production with imports, mostly from Japan and Taiwan. On the other hand, labor strikes in Poland and Australia helped the growth in U.S. coal exportsfrom 16.1 million short tons valued at $807 million during the first three months of 1-980 to 23.9 million short tons worth $1.2 billion this year. A lot also depends on President Reagan's economic policies. If U. S. interest rates remain high, the dollar will remain overvalued, meaning American-made goods will be expensive in overseas markets as will tour ism here. In addition, business needs tax and other incentives to inve/lt in new equipment. And if the economy doesn't get rolling, American .con sumers won't be able to buy, But one area in which the Unfted States has a clear lead is in services, including such professional service fields as law, banking, insutance, health and engineering, and llduca tional institutions, hotels, real estate, transportation and utilities.: The Reagan administration is pushing exports in services and also is attempting to 1set up a trade regulation system similar to that provided :for trade in goods. ,. The largest service sectors. selling overseas through affiliates were banking, advertising, insurance, transportation and communications, according to the Gerorgetown. study. Many of these services lead ,to. follow-up exports. For example, :construction work by an AmericanJirm might lead to purchases of; other U. R supplies. But as other: countries 'are learning to perform these services they are pushing U. S. firms otit of the picture. Often they. or neighboring countries have companies that can do the work cheaper than Americans can. Already the United States has slipped somewhat in the foreign contract contruction area, the Georgetown study said. Between 1976 and 1978, the U. S. slipped from first to fourth place in overseas construetion, the study said.

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,-'), \i PITTSBURGH BUSINESS TIMES ... PITTSBURGH,PA. FROM THE PRESS OFFICE WEEllLY SEP 71981 J;fLTfeport shoWs industries weak in foreign markets BOOK REVIEW By JAMES K. MORRIS U S. INDUSTRIAL COMPETITIVENESS: a Comparison of Steel, Electronics, and Automobiles. By the Office of Technology Assessment. Government Printing Office. 206 pp. $6. Last year candidate Ronald Reagan, while touring the depressed automobile in d :1stry in Detroit, promise-! to bring v,gether leaders in business, labor, govern rc,ent and academics to make recommenda t.r,ns for a new" American strategy of comp:1titiveness. With the publication of U.S. Industrial Competitiveness, the Office of 'l'echnolog)' -~~sm~nt (a branch of Congressl Iiji!I' 'save '"'@iii the trouble. If read by members of the administration and Congre~s. the report promises to Nonetheless, the United States will have significantly elevate the national debate to accept the reality that the world is not as over the co1'!1petiti":e~ess of American. in-it was in the 1950s. The global market dustry. It will do this if ~,>nly by correcting place is fiercely competitive, and the U.S .. many of the assumptions held by the public of American industryis ability (o _no longer expect to d~m1nate 1t as 1t compete internationally. did m the past. The study is concerned with three For example, the domestic electronics in domestic industries-automobiles, steel and dustry, once the world leader, is barely able electronics. Two of the three have been to hold on to its own domestic market by beset with competitive problems while the virtue of import restrictions. Additionally, third, electronics, a relative newcomer, has f th d t f t h k f many o e omes 1c manu ac urers ave alreadfy lot st its consumer mar et to ore1gn resorted to assembling their products manu ac urers. The public's perception that the overseas, further aggravating the im country's comp~titiveness in manufacturbalance. ing has slipped is basically correct, con-But aside from a changing world, what is cludestheOTAreport. to blame for the United State's decline in -competitiveness? The authors of this study niake more conclusions as to what is not to blame. Government regulations, for instance. are not the culprits industry would like us to believe. In the steel industry, regula tions providing for protection of the environment have required large outlays of capital. "But the money spent in ineeting regulatory standards would have been in sufficient to maintain U.S. competitiveness even if directed entirely at modernization and productivity improve. ment," concludethe authors. In the case of the automobile industry the report concludes that "regulations have seldom put the U.S. industry at any disadvantagemany regulations are more burdensome for imports than for domestic producers.''

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Only in the case of the steel industry does the study admit that the combined expense of meeting environmental and workplace safety standards, an expense not matched by foreign competitors, has the cost been disadvantageous. If regulations are not to blame, what about rising wages? Again, in the steel industry the report finds rapidly rising wages to only be part of the blame. Wages did increase faster than productivity, but the industry was at fault for not having ''modernized rapidly enough to give efficiency improvements that would keep pace with rising wages." Interestingly, the authors note, that the traditional "jawboning" which presidents have resorted to over the past two decades to moderate increasing steel prices has had little effect. Only price controls, between 1971 and 1974, decreased the industry's profits. The study' s authors also remained un convinced that reductions in corporate tax rates will restore vitality to American industry a claim which gained special credence during last year's campaign. While this objective, and others such as regulatory relief, might be appropriate, in themselves they "would be insufficient to ensure future U.S. competitiveness.'' What is needed, according to the OT A report, is a "macroindustrial policy." In other words, a well thought out policy against which the government can weigh its actions. In the absence of such a policy, argue the authors, the government will continue to take ad hoc, often.reactive; ac tion. In a market economy, according t.o the report, there are always winners and losers. Losers with grievances, if powerful enough, will attempt to use the political process to reverse their losses. A policy for competitiveness, as _OTA en-. visions it, would include among other things, an emphasis on retraining and educating workers for new jobs, emphasis on technological improvements, on creating incentives for capital formation, energy efficiency, productivity, open trade and competition ii:i domestic markets so as to strengthen domestic industry's hand in the international markets. Specifically these findings give support to a number of efforts presently underway in Congress. The sad thing about the book is that it was written by government officials. Sad because they have made it hard work to gar.ner the worthwhile points. But aside from the "governmentese" which overtakes the book, the authors choose the worst of all W ashii:igton solu tions to the problem-a call for a new policy. While it might be a desirable goal, it is hardly likely that an increasingly parochial Congress would be able to hammer out such a thing. Getting representatives from Pittsburgh and Detroit to agree on the in gredients to such a policy is about as likely as getting the Steelers to quit sacking the Lions' quarterback.

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Impact of Applied Genetics: Micro-Organisms, Plants, and Animals / /, ... ., [,' -

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE Christian Science Monitor Tuesday, Oct. 27, 1981 Genetic engineering: hopes for high profits mount; ethical and social questions persist PJ1:A$'r.tN A SERIES "f't. < < / .,s. rt, Aabert C-Cewen ::&atui:aI scle'nce ditor of the Christian Science Monitor maiic61101~gHs as. orct as tai art of making bread tor your toast or vinegar for you,r salag dressing. It also is as new as the four to five' dozen ~ompanies fQrmed over the past half. decade to. exploit thewon(lers of genetic engineeri~. The a\VeSQine ability to rewrite an organism's genetic instructio~ ---: fo give it capacities nature never intended promises. to b0G0me the spearhead of therevolution sweeping through biQtechno!l'>gf today. The revolution is being driven as much by rising oil costs as by ne,w prospects for directly re'-"Titing the genetic. ''programs" of microl:>es. Many basic industrial chemicals that have been made from Ra,tural gas and oil now can, or soon will be, made more econotrril:i~aUy by microbes .using wood cellulose, organic wastes, or oth~r so-ca.lied' 'biomass.'' ''l'J:le major economic impact of genetic engineering will be evell. greater in the chemical and energy industries than in the health-care field," says Edward Lanphier of International Re source Development Irtc. (IRD). This is in spite of the fact the micr0bes have already taken over much of the pharmaceutical in dustry over the past four decades. Antibiotics worth $4 billion to $5 btllioq have been produced worldwide SQ far. IRD has projected a $!3 bil!Honannualmai:ket by 1990 specifically for drugs produced by genetically redesigned organisms. However, the mu)tibillion-dollar market for microbe-made moo,icifials pales beside IRD's projection of trillions of doUars of savings and goods produced through more extensive applications of biotechnology in the chemical and energ_y industries. By allow intf energy-intensive che~ical reactions to take place at relatively l0w tem.peratures and pressures, biotechnology can cut industrial ener~ use significantly. It can aid secondary and tertiary recov ery oi some 200 billion barrels Qf domestic oU worth over $6 trillion by1 for example, supplying xanthum gum to help push oil out of wells: By helping farmers become le.ss dependent on oil-derived chemicals for .fertilizers and pesticides, biotechnology can substan tially benefit agriculture; IRD believes. Such an assessment is not mere hyperbole from promoters. Several recent reportsfrom diverse sources also see biotechnology burgeoning. The congressi_onal Office ofJ~9lJJ12L~-4ssfl.i;;Sment
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Hes1ctes producing chemicals, biotechnologists also foresee ne"''. ways to control pollution. For example, Anand~ M. ~hakrabarty of the University of Illinois, who patented an 011-eatmg bactenum while working for the General Electric Company, now is clc"> ing bacteria that can eat toxic chemicals. "In the future," he say:s, "instead of banning chemicals ... we'll be able to develop our own antidotes." Harking back to a technique believed used by the Romans, min ing engineers anticipate using microbes more extensively to re cover valuable metals from poor ores. Already, bacteria of the genus Thiobacillus are used commercially to win ~opper an? ura nium from low-grade ores. By breeding or genetically des1grnng bacteria to be more resistant to heat and acids and more tolerant of metal poisoning, it may be possible to expand their role as miners. Such is the vision of the biotechnical revolution. However, ge netic engineering has raised questions of ethical and social resptm sibility since it first gained public notice in the early 1~70s .. Put in its simplest term&, these techniques allow biologists botlh to read the genetic instructions that control the development ar nature of a specific organism and, t~ lil!it~r t:h()6e instructions. For example, the appropruate g1,i1,1t1Is.~mQ,~ ~;es of organism that ptoduces a certain Chemical ~bH:ilo~mwoo~ s9:y the genes "code" for the chemi~al) can be g,iyen to~ J.1>,a,.ttt~num. typically Escherichia coli, which then can prodHce tl\\e fue""'1 appreciable quantity. In this way, _ba.cteri~ ha.~e OOWll el1Ulibwcl make such natural human biochermcals as insulin @r a. !fl'~lll 1'0 : mone using the actual human genetic instructions, 'J'.he msulm gene, 'which is fairly short, was synthesized and then given to the bacterium. In the case of the growth hormone, the human gene itself was copied directly and inserted. The developing ability to transfer genes between different b~ological species, genera, and even k~ngdoms acr?ss the ~ast ~10: logical distance between human ~mgs a:id bacteria raise?, '-on cern in the mid-1970s that biologists might be t~mpted to. play God" and repopulate Earth with their own creations. For_m1aable techflical obstacles. including lack of much fundamental b1ol~gical knowledge, bar such hubris. There is a worl~ of d~fferenc_e between reprogramming E. coli to make certam b1ochermcals and redesigning the human race. As this has been more widely realized, the concern about ti~:kering with earthly life has moved into the backgroun?, altho~gh It h~s not faded away. It remains as a backdrop to the b10techmcal re\'o lution. As the OTA noted last spring: "Genetics and other areas of the biological sciences have in common a much closer_ rela tionship to certain ethical questions th~n do m?st advances rn the physical sciences and engineering. The mcr~asmg contr?l o~er th~ characteristics of organisms and the potential for altermg ml~n tance in a directed fashion raise again questions about the relauon ship of humans to each other and to other living things." Molecular biologists hope that local communities will recognize that the supposed dangers of their work are much less than had been thought. Concern about public safety has been mor~ persistent. Again i~ the mid-1970s, biologists worried that they might create novel m1 crobes that were dangerous life and that might escap~ from the lab. They urged strict volunteer guidelines to ensure nothing_dangerou_s was let loose. In 1976, they were formulated as t~e ~at10nal Insti tute of Health (NIH) guidelines, which became bmdmg on federal agencies and grantees but remained voluntary for ot~ers. Some communities, such as Cambridge, M~ss_., ~ss~rt~d their own au: thority to control DNA work within their J~nsd~c~1ons. Safety co~1 mittees were also established at umvers1ties to supervise recombinant DNA research. Except for some concern that the NIH guidelines were not gen erally bmding on industry. there was wide agreement that reason able public safeguards had been established. Dangerous experi ments with such things as pathogenic organisms were either banned or very strictly controlled. Much other research had to be done under tight laboratory conditions. It became apparent that biologists had been overly cautious. Most, if not all, of their bacterial rejiggering was no more exotic than what occurs naturally. Even E. coli with the ability to make human growth hormone is believed to pose no threat, for it would not be likely to survive outside of the carefully controlled environ ment of laboratory glassware or industrial vats. This has led l,iolo-. gists to seek a relaxation of the guidelines which many of them now consider needlessly restrictive and even alarmist. M0st other countries with biotechnical research have alnady come to this conclusion. In Britain, for example, only the most potentially dangerous experiments need prior approval. Now the NIH Recombinant DNA Advisory Committee (RAC) u.r:ges relax ation in the US. On Sept. 9, by a vote of 16 to 3 with one abstention, the RAC gave preliminary approval to a proposal originally put forward by David Baltimore of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Allan Cambell of Stanford University. Guidelines now mandatory would become xoluntary, Conditions for working with redesigned organisms would be relaxed. Only two dangerous types of experiments would continue to be banned those 1,1:Sing genes able to synthesize extremely toxic poisons and those which would transfer drug res.ista.'lce if this were deerriir.d d@trit'.li!P.aj,al to public health., It remains to be seen whether or not the RAC ree:rted1y acknowledged that past .fearsha(d been exaggerated.. Also. local communities with recombir:iant '!NA fadl,ities woutd likely be uneasy with any weakening in the. u,.,.,_ Boston, for e'll':ample, now has an ordinance to compel compliance witti.current standards and Cambridge has toughened its 1977 law to control privately funded DNA work more closely. Molecular biologists hope that local communities will recognize that the supposed dangers of their work are much less thari had been thought and will not reimpose restrictions that NIH now is prone to relax. Nevertheless, many of those workingin this new biological field do recognize the importance of public partici~tion in resolving this issue. "We need to provide an established, avail able, open forum for consideration of these issues over the next five years," says Mr .. Baltimore, "so the pub!ie-..Qan understand ... their concerns have not been forgotten." Meanwhile, back on campus, new ethical issues have arisen as the lure of big money reaches into academic laboratories. This is not just a matter of university professors being enticed into indus try. A number of them are staying on campus but dividing their time and loyalty with outside companies, some of which they have helped establish. Another factor is the inflow of industrial money to set up special arrangements for priority access to discoveries in exchange for research funds. In July, for example, the Du Pont chemic
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publication. Even more damage has been done to the informal routes of communication that characterize most vigorous fields of basic biologi.cal research." Notfng that the problems brought by big money in the commer ciaUzation of biomedi~al research are harbingers of what will hap pen in other areas of the new biology, Kennedy has called for a conference. to lay down some ethical guidelines, just as biologists once met to establish safety guidelines. At this writing, he has had no takers. Indeed, th.e thinking in regard to ethical standards for universities in this matter is in disarray. Meanwhile, there is the question of the public's interest in the kuits of research that has been funded largely by tax money. At a hearing on this issue before subcommittees of the House Science and Technology Committee, Rep. Albert Gore Jr. (D) of Tennessee expre,ssed a widely held concern when he said, "My gut feeling is that the taxpayers are not being given sufficient consider..ation.'' He said he felt "uncomfortable with the arrangement with Hoechst" which he thought would allow foreigners to tap knowledge paid for by US citizens. For their part, both universities and the companies involved pciint out there will be a rich return fromtaxes paid on any profits. For example, J. Leslie Glick, president of Genex Corporation says, "We project the financial return to the public [as cost savings and corporate taxes} in the year 2000 on worldwide bulk sales of pro ducts whose manufacture will have been affected by recombinant DNA technology to be $4.7 billion." The ethical issues are far from being resolved. They hang as a smallbut dark cloud on the otherwise bright horizon of biotechnology. Also on that horizon is the question of how far scientists should go in tinkering with organic life. Biologists and the rest of society will have to face up to that one someday. Tomorrow: Microbes in industry

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE SECOND IN A SERIES By Robert C. Cowen Natural science editor of The Christian Science Monitor Chemists, awed by how easily lowly m~crobes outperform test tube wizardry, express their envy in the "Organic Chemist's Ode": I fall upon my knees And pray that all my syntheses May no longer be inferior To those conducted bybacteria. Actually, chemists have been involved with microbes for a long time. US industrial.micro~i~logy turns out a mix of products worth some $10 bithori a year; The pharmaceutical industry, in .p;;i:rticular, has transformed itself over the past four decades to become highly dependent on organic prope~ses to create medicinal products. However, followmg the ecooomics of using cheap oil as a raw materi~. the chemical industry h.is stuck largely witluynthetic; energy,-intensive processes, ... / Now oil is.no longer cheap and energy must~ conserved. Economics is turning.against. the chemisfs syntheses and in favor of doing things t~emi crobe's way. New prospects for genetieallty redesigning microbes to be more efficierit on tbejQb enhance the trend. Industrial chemistry as a whole is ripe for transformation into a biologically based industry on a scale never before known res i fice otI~~MS~s-men ma majors u y~iiial15lotec O ogy "will cut across the entire spe<;trum of chemical groups: plastics and. resin:-matenahs, flavors and perfumes materials, syntheti_c rubber; me dicinal chemicals, pesticides;. and the primary pro ducts from petroleum that serve af! '. .. raw materials .... It notes: ''estimates of tlie e:11; pected economic impacts are in the_ billion~ o! dol lars per year for dozens of chemicals within 20 years." . Many of those billions won't represent new pro ducts or new markets for the industry so much as new ways of producing established materials. OTA looked at over lOO cheJllical compounds in 17 prod uct categories with a present annu.al market value of over $27 billion. rt found that ''Within 2oyears all these products could be manufactured usin, geneti cally engineered microbial strains on .a. more. eco normcal basis than using today's conventional technologies.'' There are also billions of dollars to be made with products th,t probably wouldn't be available at all without the help of microbes. These will include medicinals, such as human insulin, which a bacte riwn has now been designed to make; or alcohol for fuel. Geilex Corporation estimates that markets for wholly new products and expansion of markets to absorb increased production of established pro. ducts could total $26 billion by the end of the century. All such estimates of future markets are uncer tain. What is clear is that the modern chemical industry, which now satisfies over 90 percent af its raw material needs with oil, has valuable partners CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR Wednesday, Oct. 28, 1981 in microbes that can transform wood, organic wastes a:nd other "biomass" to meet certain needs. The' basic chemical process involved is fermen tation the transformation of organic compounds using enzymes, usually those made by microbes. Enzymes are proteins that ease otherwise difficult chemical reactions. Each reaction has its specific enzyme. The chemical facility of microbes in deed .of all living cells lies in their ability to produce thousands of these enzymes as needed, and in the amounts needed, to smooth the processes of organic Ufe as directed by the genetic instructions each species carries. .People have used.fennentation for millenniums. Yeast was usedto break down sugars to form car bon dioxide and leaven Egyptian bread over 6;000 yearsag-0. Out of more than 100,000 species of microbes on Earth, only a few hundred are likely to be directly usef~l to l,ileople. They .include yeasts, molds, bacte ria, and the actinomycetes (which make antibiot ics). Neverth~less, while this may be a sm.all part of IDal'th's microbiota, they produce some 200 com mercially u,sefl,ll matetjals, 011ly a few of which in d!.:t:stcy makes biolagically today. This suggests the w.tustrial growth potential of the ancient art now the science of using fermentation. Sometimes the industrial chemist dispenses with the microbe and uses an .enzyme or enzymes di rectly. The role of the microbe is reduced to s11pplying the enzyme initially. This is what has happened in one Of those quiet little revolutions at the grocery store that sometimes slip by unnoticed. A few years ago, bread and soft drinks were sweetened with cane sugar. There. were outcries from consumers when the cost of sugar shot up. Now, a corn syrup sweetener is taking over; Large scale production offructose (a sugar) by fermenta tion fromcorristarcMhreatens the doD1inance of su~ crose (beet and cane sugar). ', Production of fructose syrup is approaching. 3 rmllion tons a year.. According to estimates by in vestment analysts at L. E. Rothschild, Unterberg, Twbin, the annual worldwide sweetener market is some $14 billion, including $5 billion in the United States alone. Thus the stakes are high to continue development of. this technology, which is already producing a sweetener at costs competitive with canesugar. In terms of. the number of patents held and cur rent industrial applications, Japan leads the world in enzyme technology, according to Daniel Thomas and Gerard Gellf .of the Technological University of Compiegne in France, who recently published a worldwide review of the field. But considerable work is also being done in the US and the European Economic Community. France has made biotech nology a national priority. Several other countries, including the SovietUnion, are showing interest too. Industrial use of enzymes has been hampered by technical difficulties of working with these useful molecules in chemical solutions. They can be over come somewhat by tying the enzymes dQwn to a solid substrate while the substance they are to ,, transform washes over them, as is done in making fructose syrup. n ~.,"' "oncept that was originally studied in Ber lin in the l950s: Twelve years ago, Tanabe Seiyaku

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Company in Japan made the first satisfactory in dustrial use of it to produce certain amino acids __:_ the building blocks of proteins. More than 2,000 re search papers have been published about the idea in the past few years. Speculating about future uses, Thomas and Gellf note that rennin for making cheese is becoming ex pensive. If that enzyme could be immobilized, cheesemakers could reuse the expensive material several times. Looking further ahead to a time when more-complicated enzyme systems can be as sembled, they foresee such things as removal of pesticides from water, nitrogen-fixation for fertil izer using immobilized living cells, and even pro duction of hydrogen for fuel by splitting water mole cules in a photosynthetic reaction. Meanwhile, microbes themselves are finding wider applications. Their utility lies only partly in the kinds of products they can make. Equally valu able is the fact that they can use a variety of materi als arid perform chemical reactions at low tempera tures and pressures. This contrasts to energy-intensive, nonbiological processes that typi cally need high temperatures and pressures. Noting that the chemical industry had been seduced by cheap oil to abandon fermentation technology used early in this century, OTA observes that "the chemical industry's constant search for cheap and plentiful raw materials is now about to come full circle." Coal will provide many substitutes. "Nevertheless," OTA says, "economic, environ mental, and technical factors will increase the industry's interest in biomass as an alternative source of raw materials. .. Biology will thereby take on the dual role of providing both raw materi als and a process for production.'' This is clearly evident in the production of ethyl alcohol or ethanol. Quite apart from its prospects as a fuel, ethanol already has major industrial uses as a solvent, extractant, antifreeze, and basic material for other products. Only about a third of the current US annual production of around 300 million gallons is used for fuel. This proportion could change radi cally over the next two decades if alcohol becomes a substantial substitute for oil-derived gasoline. About 70 percent of US-ethanol is made syntheti cally from oil-derived raw materials. A number of microbes, however, including the same yeast spe cies that leavens bread, can do the job. Rising oil costs are pushing industry toward alcohol biosyn thesis even without the gasohol incentive. In the US, surplus grain could provide something like 2 billion gallons a year or less. But there is no need to be restricted to grain as a raw materia'I. or to divert any food material to such use. Organic wastes, such as cornstalks, could be used if the more complicated biochemis:trv involved were de-veloped. Charles Cooney of the Massachusetts Insti tute of Technology, one of a number of biochemists working on ethanol fermentation around the world, insists that the real value of the process is the oppor tunity it offers to use a variety of cheap, abundant biomass materials in place of oil. However, while people have been fermenting grain for thousands of years, wood is more difficult to work with. Of its three main constituents cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin only cellulose is readily fermentable today. In his laboratory, Pro fessor Cooney and his colleagues have bred two strains of bacteria to perform a direct fermentation from ligno-cellulose biomass to alcohol. Cooney calls it "a kind of cellulose yogurt." So far, he has used selective breeding rather than the more exotic techniques for rewriting genetic instructions directly. Nevertheless, as the re search advances, he foresees not only alcohol pro duction, but direct fermentation of wood to such other basic organic chemical materials as acetic or lactic acids. "The possibilities are limited only by the imagination," he says. Some other basic industrial chemicals, such as propylene oxide, widely used in the manufacture of plastics, also seem ripe for bioproduction. In fact, Cetus. Corporation expects this to happen before 1990 and forecasts global sales worth $2 billion to $3 billion for biologically made propylene oxide. Beyond such basics, there are many end products which biotechnology. can help manufacture. These will even include upgraded oil products such as lubricants made by biological processing of heavy oil and residuals. Developing the "bugs" to do the job is only part of what will be needed. Elmer L. Gaden Jr. of the University of Virginia points out in reviewing indus trial microbiology in the magazine Scientific American that "a biologicaLprocess can attain its full utility only when adapted to a context of produc tion." He adds that "both the environment and the technology [for fermentation] are generally pro vided by a system of vats, pipes, pumps, valves, and other devices. It follows that genetic engineering is only one factor in the success of a biological industry. The microbe and the chemical engineer are both needed to make the new biotechnology work. Yet without modern techniques of intensive selective breeding and the ability to rewrite an organism's genetic programs, much of what is forecast here would be impractical. It is these new capacities that make possible what British geneticist David Hopwood calls "the selection or construction of freak organisms, genetically programmed to make a nor mal metabolic product in amounts that would be a disastrous drain on a wild organism's resources." The genetic breeding methods enable industrial chemists to anticipate what microbiologist Douglas E. Eveleigh of Rutgers University describes as "the rational design and synthesis of enzymes." Such are the fruits of genetic science. As OTA observes, "several decades of support for some of the most esoteric basic research has unexpectedly provided the foundation for a highly useful technology." Tomorrow: Designer genes on the farm

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE Christian Science Monitor (Thursday, Oct. 29, 1981) LAST OF THREE ARTICLES By Robert C. Cowen Natural science editor of The .Christian .science Monitor "Our research leaves no doubt in my mind that today's genetic engineering threshold can only be compared to the splitting of the atom," proclaims market analyst James Murray. They think big in Chicago, capital .of the US agricultural heartland, where Enrico Fermi got the first atomic reactor running 39 years ago. Last May, Policy Research Corporation, the consulting firm that Dr. Murray heads, joined with anllther.such firm, The Chicago Group Inc .. to publish what they m-0destly called '' An Assess ment of the Global Potential of Genetic Engic, neering in the Agribusiness Sector." It sells for the equally modest price of $1,250 a copy. At the time, Murray told the press it was my" opic to emphasize medical and pharmaceutical applications in reporting on genetic engineering. He said he is convinced that "the dollar value of the agribusiness applications could be 10 times that of medical applications. Agribusiness applications have a market potential of $50 bil lion to $100 billion, medical applications only $5 billion to $10billion by the year 2000." Other prophets of 'agrigenetics are somewhat less sanguine. "The potential tantalizes the imagination," says H. 0. Kunkel, dean of the College of Agri culture at Texas A&M University. "But," he adds, "remember that our agricultural system has been evolving for hundreds of years and it will be a while before 11enetir technology can be incorporated." His colleague Page Morgan compares cur rent speculation about genetically engineered crop plants to thinking about _going to the moon 20 years ago. "The engineers said they had the capability, but at the time they hadn't developed the equipment to make the trip pos sible. That's about where we are today [with genetic engi neering on the farm]," he says. As was the case when President Kennedy set the na tional goal of putting astronauts on the moon, some critics are downright skeptical. Thomas N. Urban, president of Pioneer Hi-Bred, a major seed supplier, has said: "Ge netic engineering techniques cannot simultaneously work with large .numbers of genes, which' is a prerequisite for most hybrid and variety improvements .. Plants have some 10;000 genes, and very few of their characteristics are con trolled by a single gene. The new techniques-will be helpful in speeding up our work .... But they won't change conventional breeding methods." /i;lomewhere along this spectrum, between the extremes of euphoria and doubt, lies a realistic prospect for at lea$t a minor agricultural revolution. But to what extent it will be propelled.by the exotic techniques of ge netic. engineering rather. than by more conventional breeding and how fast it will develop are at present unclear. ''The complexity of plants and animals presents a greater challenge to advances in applied genetics than tha~ posed by microorganisms,'' says the gngfes~i
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The work on nitrogen fixation (NIF) of B_rill and others illustrates the kind of challenge agrigenetics involves. If plants could pick up nitrogen from the air, it would reduce the need for chemical nitrogen fertilizer. One way to gi\ e corn, for example, the NIF chararcteristic, is to induce microbes that have the capacity. either naturally or artifical!y, to cuddle up to corn the way they do to legumes. But making microbes work in the field. if they don't already do it naturally, is far different from using them in the chemical or pharmaceutical industries where they are held in carefully controlled vats. In the field, they have to live rough and get along ,vith their neighbors. Brill calls this subtle question of the interaction of microorganisms with one another and with the biosphere as a whole" one of the major stumbling blocks in agrigenetics. He recalls an early experiment in which he innoculated a soybean field with a strain of bacterium de veloped in the laboratory to have higher NIF ability. It failed to perform, unable to compete with the bacteria naturally present. 'Brill and his coworkers have gone on to develop strains of bacteria that can work in the soil. He is trying to de velop strains of NIF bacteria that will bind to co.rn plants. One such bacterium, Azotobacter vinelandii looks promis ing. Corn now grown in the US won't support this bacte rium. Through selective breeding of varieties from other countries, Brill's associate, Stephen W. Ela, has begun to overcome this limitation. They now have corn that can get about 1 percent of its nitrogen from the air. Brill says they are "sufficiently encouraged by our results to try to improve that percentage." Another way to give grain crops NIF capacity might be to introduce the necessary genes to the plants themselves. This is especially difficult. There are 17 different genes that have to be transferred and made to work together. This involves overcoming a major biological barrier. Bac teria are what are known as "prokaryotes," their cells have no nuclei. All higher organisms, from yeasts to humans, are "eukaryotes" having cells with nuclei. While single genes, including human genes, have been transferred from eukaryotes to bacteria and made to work, it is uncertain that a complex of bacterial genes could be transferred across this great biological gap and be made to work in eukaryotes. Researchers at Cornell University, the Pasteur Insti tute in Paris, and the University of Paris have managed to transfer all 17 NIF genes from a bacterium to a yeast. But, as of this writing, that gene complex had yet to ex press itself. Commenting on this in a recent review of plant genetics, E. C. Cocking and colleagues at the University of Nottingham, England, called the possibility of these NIF genes being expressed ''remote.'' Even if the NIF genes were able to work in yeast this is no guarantee that they could be transferred to corn or wheat and be expressed in those plants. Again. if this were accomplished in the laboratory, there still would be the challenge of turning'the laboratory tissue culture into a viable crop plant. Broadly speaking, agricultural genetic engineers have two types of technology to work with. They can fuse cells of different species to produce hybrids with a mixture of genetic characteristics. Or they can insert copies of genes directly into the genetic instructions of a target species. That is how the "sunbean," which made headlines last summer, was formed. It was an experiment in which a French bean protein gene was transferred to a sunflower. One way to introduce such a foreign gene is to use a natural carrier. Geneticists have been studying the bacte rium Agrobacterium tumefaciens as such an agent. It is able to infect plant cells. Biologists at the Max Planck Institute in Cologne. West Germany. last year reported using A. tumefaciens to implant specific genes. But they couldn't propagate whole new plants carrying the gene. Last spring, Marc Van Montagu of the Free University of Brussels announced that his laboratory had cleared that hurdle. Whole new plants carrying an inserted gene were grown. Then on June 29, US Secretary of Agriculture John R. Block announced similar work being done by a Depart ment of Agriculture-University of Wisconsin team led by USDA biologist John Kemp. They used A. tumefaciens to insert the gene that codes for a specific protein of the French bean into sunflower cells. However, noting that the payoff from suc'1 research would likely come in the next century, Secretary Block also reported that the re searchers had only a mass of sunbean tissue culture. They had yet to induce this to form viable plants. Turning plant cells into mature plants is an uncertain business. This is another major barrier to agrigenetic en gineering. "In microorganisms, the changes made on the cellular level are the goals of the manipulation. With crops, changes made on the cellular level are meaningless unless they can be reproduced in the entire plant.'' OT A explains. It adds, "Therefore, unless single cells in cul ture can be grown to mature plantsthat have the new. desired characteristics -a procedure which, at this time. has had limited success the benefits of genetic engi"' neering will not be widespread.'' Such are the technical difficulties that make experts cautious in predicting the impact of genetic engineering on agriculture. In animal husbandry, there is little fore seeable benefit to be gained from the exotic new genetic techniques at this time, except for new pharmaceuticals for veterinarians. Even with crop plants, where long-term possibilities are more evident, traditional selective breeding remains the key technology. Genetic engineers will have to cooper ate closely with the plant breeders. "The new technologies may provide potentially useful tools, but they must be used in combination with classical plant breeding tech niques to be effective," says OT A. That is why the International Plant Research Institute (IPRIJ, a genetic engineering firm, has gotten together with Davy McKee Corporation, a major breeder, to ex plore the commercial use of plants not now grown as crops and commercial crops that have been improved by genetic engineering. Among other projects, they will try to double the yield of the cassava (tapioca) plant without having to use fertilizers. IPRI hopes to improve the plant's genetics. perhaps by inserting foreign genes for disease resistance. by improv ing protein content, or by genetically eliminating the toxic substances the plant produces and which now must be re moved by special processing. Davy McKee, for its part. will design a processing plant to turn cassava starch into the sugar fructose or into ethanol.

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In this venture geneticists, plant breeders, and process engineers will be working together to plan the best way to harvest some of the fruits ofthe new biotechnology. Meanwhile, if classical plant breeding is so important. some biologists are concerned that its basis is being eroded as the spreading extinction of wild plants narrows Earth's genetic resources. Winston Brill points out that according to some estimates, the extinction rate is run ning as high as a thousand species a year. Such losses to the gene pool are not likely to be made up by genetic engi neering. Moreover, mankind could be losing valuable plant traits of which it is unaware, as well as narrowing the genetic reserves to maintain the health of present crop species .. Not all experts agree with OT A's statement that 'it is uncertain how much genetic variation for improvement exists" in crop species. Thomas Urban, for one. says. "We have yet to discover any legitimate research data confirming the fears that genetic potential has plateaued. Nevertheless, a wide range of genetic resources are needed. OTA notes: "A wild melon collected in India ... was the source of resistance to powdery mildew and prevented the destruction of California melons. A seemingly useless wheat strain from Turkey ... was the source of genetic resistance to stripe rust when it became a problem in the Pacific Northwest. Similarly, a Peruvian species contributed 'ripe rot' resistance to American pep per plants, while a Korean cucumber strain provided high-yield production of hybrid cucumber seed for US farmers." Genetic engineering is not yet ready to match the natural wealth of genetic diversity, and thus, to meet such challenges. In spite of some efforts to build seed banks, such as the US National Seed Storage Laboratory at Fort Collins. Colo., experts believe that too little is being done to pre serve even the gene pool of established crop plants. Genetic engineering has opened the prospect of a dra matic new approach to crop improvement. Yet as OT A points out, Earth's "lost genetic diversity is irreplace able." This could turn outto be the biggest genetic chal lenge of all.

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MX Missile Basing

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The Christian Science Monitor BOSTON, MASS. D. 172,470 SEP 2 9 1981 fiA-FROM THE PRESS OFFICE MX choices for Reagan full of flaws, risks, ,experts say. Congressional advisory unit, dovish research group both find fault with every siting plan and 550 missiles in 12,500 shelters by 1995," it asserts. Moreover, the report states that MPS basing would have a severe social, economic, and physical impact on the "deployment region and could result in the loss of thousands of As Congress nears a decision on deployment square miles of productive range land. of the MX missile, this article explores two Adding antiballistic missile (ABM) defenses, major assessments of various basing proposals. specifically the low-altitude air defense system, By Stephen Wehbe to an MPS system could force the Soviets to at-{-' ). I )Staff correspondent of tack each shelter with two warheads, it adds. But The Christian Science Monitor both the MX and the ABM system would have to Washington be concealed, and the ABM would have to funcThere is noway to base the MX missile that is tion amid exploding warheads. "It is not now free of "serious risks," declares the-rmce pf certain that these conditions can be met," the T~s;hno\ogy Assessment (OTA). report declares. The deployment of an effective "Ateastao different Mk i,asing plans have ABM system would be impossible without been proposed and not one is without serious amending or withdrawing from the Soviet liabilities," chimes in the Center for Defense American ABM treaty of 1972, it adds, warning Information ( CDI). of the risk of a Soviet counterdeployment. Reports from both organizations the for-Basing MX missiles in silos and launching mer an advisory arm of the US Congress, the them before they could be destroyed, a concept latter a dovish research group reveal how the known as launch-under~attack, is technically MX missile is confronting President Reagan feasible the OTA says. "However, the conse with one of the severest strategic dilemmas ever quences. of errors could include a successful So-. faced by a US commander in chief. viet first strike or an accidental nuclear war,'' it Essentially, say experts, he has inherited a warns, adding that current ABM technology is hugely destructive missile that cannot be based not yet able to protect silo-based missiles. simply and effectively. "This [MX basing option) Though the OTA seems relatively enthusias is a question of what is the least rotten apple in a tic about deploying the MX dn small submarines, bafl'el of rotten apples," declared Dr. Seymour it warns that future Sqviet developments in zeiberg, deputy undersecretary of defense for antisubmarine warfare might make this risky. research and engineering, earlier this year. The OTA, which advises Congress on technol-At the moment the Defense Department ogy, finds air mobile basing of the MX "highly seems to be leaning toward deploying 100 MX survivable" as long as the planes take off imme missiles in 1,000 shelters in southeastern diately after an c1ttack warning is received. But Nevada, a: concept known as multiple protec-if the Soviet Union bombarded all the airfields 1 tive shelter (MPS) that echoes the Carter adwhere the planes could refuel, "the United States> ministration's plan to shuttle 200 missiles around would have to 'use or lose' air-mobile-based MX 4,600 Shl:llters there and in utah. missiles within the first five to eight hours of a In its newly published report, the OTA exam-war,"it claims. ines U ways to base the MX and concludes that Moreover the aircraft, like the US B-52 five of them seem to offer "survivability and. bomber force, would be vulnerable to a.surprise performance criteria." But each has "serious missile assault from Soviet submarines lying off. risks and drawbacks" and none could be operthe US coast, the OTA adds. ational "much before 1990," it claims. "The fact that the administration is still The survivability of an MPS-based MX destruggling to develop an acceptable basing mode pends on successfully concealing the location of at this late date is evidence that none of the many a few hundred missiles among thousands of she!proposed options are workable or cost effec ters, the report notes. But confidence in US abiltive," declares retired Rear. Adm. Eugene J. ity to.do this, it maintains, will be limited until Carroll Jr., deputy director of the Washington MX prototypes have been tested. based Center for Defense Information, which If the Soviet Union continues to expand its would like the MX program abandoned. strategic missile forces, the OTA report ob-In a just-published CDI report entitled "MX: serves, the United States will need more missiles The Weapon Nobody Wants," Admiral Carroll and shelters to counter the threat. "To ensure claims the controversial missile is a first-strike the survival of 100 MX missiles, 360 missiles hidweapon intended to destroy the Soviet Union's den in 8,250 shelters could be required by 1990, 1,400 intercontinental ballistic missiles.

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Thursday, October 1, 1981 THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MOOITOR --Reagan decision 1.ikely to rHe both MX critics, backers By Stephen Wehbe Staff correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor Washington If President Reagan announces a plan Oct. 2 to base 100 MX missiles among 1,000 shelters in the West, he almost certainly will draw fierce criticism from those who support and oppose the deployment of the controversial missile system. Specifically, say observers, opponents will blast him for not scrapping it and supporters will complain bitterly that the plan is insufficient to meet the burgeoning Soviet threat. Defense Secretary Caspar W. Weinberger Sept. 30 cast doubt on the credibility of reports that the President will announce such a plan when he said he had "never seen so many errors" in press coverage of the purported MX decision. There are also indications that some MX missiles may be placed in Minuteman silos at Grand Forks Air Force Base in North Dakota, where the Safeguard antiballistic system was briefly operational in 1975. According to MX opponent Gene LaRocque, a retired rear admiral and director of the Washington-based Center for Defense Informa tion, nobody except the President, his advisers,. and senior Air Force officers knows exactly what the MX decision will entail. Nevertheless, strategic warfare experts who are pre pared to comment on the President's reported intention to deploy 100 MX missiles among 1,000 shelters (rather than shuffling 200 missilies around 4,600 shelters, as the Carter administration planned to do) contend that some form of ballistic missile defense (BMD) would be essential to protect the system. Others, Admiral LaRocque among them, insist that any BMD system could be overwhelmed by a massive Soviet ICBM assault. "One hundred MX missiles in 1,000 shelters don't begin to address the nature of the Soviet threat," says Dr. Keith Payne, a defense analyst at the Hudson Institute, which is well known for its studies of US national security issues. Dr. Payne .claims that such a deployment provides an "ample rati_onale" for an accompanying BMD system. According to the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA), an advisory ar3:i of Congress, Tie so-calied low-altf! tude air defense system (LoADS) which is currently being developed by the Air Force would have a high probability of shooting down the first warhead aimed at eachMX missile. But it emphazies that both the location of the MX mis siles and the LoADS units will have to be unknown to the Soviets and that the latter would be required to endure 'It's too little for some people and too much for others,' says Admiral LaRocque, who claims that the Soviet Union could knock out a thousandshelter deployment despite the installation of a BMD system. He predicts the MX system will never be built 'because it's militarily unsound.' nearby nuclear blasts "of a severity unprecedented for so complex a piece of equipment." The difficulty of maintain ing the necessary deception, the OTA observes, would be compounded by the fact that each LoADS unit would have to be concealed in a shelter and be indistinguishable from the MX and 900 decoy missiles designed to confuse Soviet strategists. Without a BMD system, a deployment of 100 missiles in 1,000 shelters would be vulnerable, &ays Rep. David F. Emery (R) of Maine, a member of the House Armed Services Committee. He estimates that only 415 of the 1,000 MX warheads (10 per missile) would survive a 6,000-warhead as sault by the Soviet Union. If 2,000 BMD interceptor missiles were added to protect the MX, the entire system would cost $53 billion. "These are astronomical costs to even be dis cussing in an era of fiscal restraint," declares Congressman Emery. Herbert Scoville, president of the Arms Control Associ ation and a noted foe of land-basing the MX, concedes that BMD technology has improved since the Safeguard system was installed at Grand Forks, but still maintains that the Soviet Union could saturate 1,000 shelters with a missile salvo. "After all, we've always admitted that 4,600 shelters were not enough to deal with the Soviet threat," he exclaims. Dr. Scoville, who believes the MX would be best de ployed on small submarines, characterizes the President's anticip;ited basing antjouncement as a "purely political de cision which ignores the security aspect," a reference to Reagan's campaign vow not to deploy the system on the scale that President Carter had envisaged it. He maintains that the President will "catch hell" from those on both sides of the MX debate who will inevitably1be disappointed with his decision. "It's too little for some people and too much for others," says Admiral LaRocque, who claims that the Soviet Union could knock out a thousand-shelter deployment despite the installation of a BMD system. No matter what the Presi dent announces tomorrow he predicts the MX sytem will never be built "because it's militarily unsound.'' The National Campaign to Stop the MX plans to fight on if the President does announce a decision to deploy MX ,,! tomorrow. But if the shelters are built on federal land in Nevada, environmentalists will not be in position to com plain as stridently about the missile deployment as they have in the past, observers say. When the President reveals his MX decision Friday,.he is also expected to announce the building of 100 B-1 bombers at a cost of $197 million apiece.

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE The New York Times Editorial Page (P. A-34) Thursday, October 1, 1981 The Clouded Missile 'Window' President Reagan is said to have decided to build at least some MX missiles and B-1 bombers and to announce it only after he meets the press today. He would be wiser to heed John Kennedy's example and ditch the "missile gap" oratory that helped elect him. But if he means to deploy these weapons he ought to field the serious questions they raise. How would limited numbers of either the MX or the B-1 close the so-called "window of vulnerability" in this decade? The military advice to both the Carter and Reagan Administrations has been that the nation needs 200 M)C's shuttlmg around 4,600 shelters in Nevada and Utah. Moreover, that counsel reck oned with treaty limits on. the number of accurate Soviet warheads. And it assumed the MX would sur vive a first strike only after half the system was coqipleted, about 1988. So what if the Russians refuse, in new SALT talks next year, to give up the big weapons that theo retically threaten 'existingMinuteman missiles in their silos? Without treaty limits on Soviet warh~ads, the safety of the MX would require not the already unacceptable 4,600 shelters in the Southwest, but 8,500 by 1990 and more than 12,000 by 1995. As the authors of these estimates in the C,2ngressi2ni} Office gt lechnology Asessment point out, the Russians can a ways acqwre warheaas faster than America can build landscape-scarring shelters. Even if the United States then scuttled the major ac-complishment of arms control and managed to build an effective antimissile missile system to defend the MX, it could not close the gap. As for the B-1 bomber,. what conceivable contri bution can it make to the invulnerability of land mis siles or the penetration of Soviet air defenses? It will be obsolete before it is deployed, according to former Defense Secretary Brown, and confined to threatening to lob cruise missiles from a distance -a role the B-52 can play to the end.of the century. If a window of American vulrterability is about to open, none of the proposed weapons will close it. But is it even ajar yet? No rational S9viet leader can pos sibly believe that he could soon destroy most Minute. men in a single assault-and avoid a devastating retaliation from sea-based and airborne forces un. less, that is, American panic persuades him that he could. All this anxiety.about open windows can only frighten allies and make Russians reckless; without providing any new margin of safety. The United States will not soon be vulnerable to a sneak attack if the Soviet Union expects to survive. A prudent President who also recognizes the threat of a strained economy woul9 resist the rush, try negotiating SALT and take the time that still exists to find missiles that could survive the still more accurate and perhaps more numerous weapons of the future. At the least, he would not avoid these obvious ques tions before he leaps. : ,,::..--

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE The Los Angeles Times Editorial Page Thursday, Oct. 1, 1981 MX: It Needs More Thought For years,. concern has been growing among President Reagan, who inherited the MX issue, has d~fense planners over how much of the land-based apparently come to a decision that takes this polit U.S. intercontine,:ital missile force could survive a ical opposition into account. Reagan is said to be Soviet attack. The Russian ICBM arsenal is more ready to announce this week a go-ahead on an MX than ample to target each one of the 1,052 missiles system, but one that would involve only 100 misthe United States has in hardened silos. More to siles to be deployed among 1,000 shelters. In short, the point, the accuracy of Soviet missiles has a smaller system, at less cost and with fewer politi improved greatly, adding to the vulnerability of cal problems. American ICBMs. The problem facing successive But an effective system? Almost certainly not. Presidents has been how to improve the surviva-What is likely, rather, is a system whose obsoles bility of these intercontinental missiles, and in so cence would be assured from the start. doing lessen the possible temptation to the Soviet This is the conclusion of the Office of TechnoloUnion to try to de~oy them all at once. gy Assessment, which prov.ides .technical analysis The land-based MX. missile has been offered as toCongress. What the office found was that "if the one answer. Though. the MX could be based in Soviets continue to expand their ICBM forces at silos, it could also be mobile; This ability to move the same rate as they did in the 1970s," then the the missile around from launch site to launch site United States would have to have 360 MX missiles would greatly increase the potential number of hidden in 8,250 shelters by Jl}OO to assure the sur targets the Soviets would have to hit if they hoped vival of 100 MX missiles in an attack. By 1995, to wipe out the land-based U.S. strategic deterthere would have to be 550 missiles in 12,500 shel rent. The Carter Administration proposed building ters. In other words, the Russians, if they wanted 4,600 MX shelters in the deserts of Nevada and to, could target each new shelter. as it came along. Utah, and 200 MX missiles that could be secretly The United States would spend vast sums of mon shuttled among them. The trick for the Russians ey and tear up a lot of desert land. only in the end would then be to figure out which shelters held the to find it had made no strategic gain. missiles. The odds against their doing that, it wa:s There are not now and never have been any theorized, would assure the survivability of many easy. answers to the question of how to deploy the MX missiles. MX or what to use in its place. But an absence of But powerful opposition developed to the Carter easy answers is no reason to choose a bad answer, plan. The MX system as envisaged would cover and the land-based MX system Reagan is said to immense desert territories, and its construction have chosen is a bad answer. The MX issue needs and maintenance could lead to major social and more thought. There has to be a better y;ay to do environmental problems in the states affected. what defense planners say must be done.

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE SEP 28 1981 DANIEL GREENBERG The ,forgotten MX option WASHINGTON As a curtain of implausibility falls on the prefabricated "window of vulnerability," a look at an MX solution that was ignored tells a lot about missile politics in the Pentagon. When the Air Force originally raised fears about the Soviets obliterating all 1052 of our land-based missiles with new, around-the-world Wi,liam Tell accuracy, the -shell-game-in-the-desert Cherne wasn't the only offered solution. Two phy slcists with solid records of high-level advi-sory service to the Defense Department, Sidney Drell of Stanford University and Richard Garwin of"IBM, pushed their own proposal: midget submarines, each carrying two missiles and operating within a thousand or so miles of shore, which would provide ample concealment ~rea and nearby protection against hf)stile craft., The scheme, known as SUM (for Smallsub Underwater Mopile), wouldn't cut into the Air Force's role, ~ince that ser vice would retain its siloed Minutemen and Titan missiles, as well as its nuclear armed aircraft two legs of the nuclear tri ad strategy. Nor would SUM affect the Navy's deepwater missile role, since the big ocean going Poseidon and Trident submarines would still be in service. Without impinging on any part -of tfie triad, SUM would directly respond to the "window" threat by providing conceal ment far more than the desert shelters could for 200 ace-In-the-hole missiles of high accuracy, and at comparable. or lower cost, than competing land-and-air-based schemes. But the Pentagon never gave the pro. posal serious consideration. Why? The answer ls suggested in a report re ce~tly issued by Congress' own "think tank," the Qf(lce g[ Ifchnology Assess under whose direction an expert panef examined various MX basing pro-: posals. In the take-no-sides style that Congress has prescribed for its nonpartisan research organization, the.report ma~es no recommendations and states no ch01ces. lt simply sets out what it takes to be the facts of complex technical issues'. though now and then it provides cautiously word ed interpretations. In. respect to the SUM, the verdict was that it met all the criteria that the Penta gon had specified for MX basing. Address ing the often-stated fear of an antisubma. rine-warfare breakthrough. the panel said none is known or foreseeable. Submarines are safe for the Indefinite future, the panel concluded, noting that the Navy's heavy investment In the costly Tr.ldent fleet shows confidence. in that Judgment. The main shortcoming of SU. would g!rie,that it would take longer than other r.. systems for completion of the whole. 200missite force. But since SUM c;ould come in _service boat by bo<;it, whUe thousands of 1concrete shelters wo-uld have to be com;pleted before the land-based system was .,operational, the pa~el concluded that ''submarine basing might well a_chieve 'survivability sooner than any of the other i basing modes.' "fhe fatal flaw, then, is not technical. Instead, in the words of the panel, in, that '.'changing the relative weight of land-and sea-based forces would create institutionai problems for both the Air torce and the Navy," which may account for the fact that "the Navy has shown little interest in small-submarine basing of MX 3;nd the Air Force opposes it." The report leaves the rest to the imagination, but not much is required to see that the Air Force would be appalled at the prospect of the nation '.s top-pf-the-Ii ne m1s sile being assigned to sea.duty: nor is it difficult to see the world-ranging Navy ap palled by the prospect of a mere coastal fleet of basic, stripped-down subs as carri ers of the superweapon. Next could co~e a cost-cutting Administration, that might conclude that coastal subs are all that's needed. Like missile gaps of yore, the "window" is losing credibility, especially Since envi ronmentally tender Nevada and utah ob Ject fo being paved over for what might well be the biggest concrete-pouring enterprise in history. The neglect of the sensible SUM propos al leaves us something to ponder: ls it misc site survivability or share of the market that motivates missile politics in the Pentagon? I Daniel S. Greenberg ts editor and pubc ltsher of the independent, Washingtonbased newsletter Science & Government Report.

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE Christian Science Monitor Friday, Oct. 2, 1981 Nevada split over MX on eve of decision By David F. Salisbury Staff correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor Carson City, Nev. Nevada is a state divided by the MX. Commercial interests, particularly in the urban areas like Las Vegas and Reno, have looked favorably on the economic advantages of basing the $30 billion plus project in their backyard. Speculators have been buying up land in Las Vegas in anticipation of the com ing boom. On the other hand, the state's rural population its ranchers and farmers and a growing number of its ordinary citizens tend to oppose the massive project because of the potential disruption of their way of life. No matter what the details of President Reagan's decision on the controversial missile system (which is expected to be announced today), some Nevadans will be angry, others will be pleased. A poll conducted last winter by the Behavior Research Center found that 46 percent of the state's popu-Nevada split over MX Already two Utah state senators and a Nevada assemblyman have filed suit against the project. The judge has delayed action on the case until the President makes his decision. Nevada concerns over the massive mis sile system run the gamut. If, as is quite likely, the Presi<;Ient decides on a reduced system, the impacts to Nevada might be: Less open land. The deployment area would cover 12,000 to 15,000 square miles, an area the size of Pennsylvania. Only 60 square miles would be required by the facili ties and 122 square miles for roads. The Air Force policy is to allow public access to the rest of the area, but state officials are con cerned that after the system is built the Pen tagon would decide that area-wide security would be necessary and put the whole region off.limits. Socioeconomic impact. OTA estimates that accommodating the as-~as-300,000 people who may move into the area due to the project, could cost local cities, counties, and the states involved as much as $7 billion. Less grazing. The Air Force maintains that MX deployment would only reduce grazing in the area by 1 percent. However, the W report points out that the sites wou e"on prime grazing lands and the effects on livestock operations "would be dis proportionately great.'' lation favored siting the advanced missile system in the Great Basin area, which includes western Utah and most of Nevada. But 48 percent opposed it. More recent state surveys have shown the pendulum of popular opinion swinging in opposition to the project as its size and side effects become more apparent. A July poll taken by the Nevada State Journal found that 69 percent of Nevadans now oppose MX, the same per centage that favored it two years ago. Despite recent White House claims of being in close consultation with Nevada Gov. Robert List and Sen. Paul Laxalt (R) of Nevada, Governor List remains "firmly opposed to the MX in any form in Nevada," says his press secretary. Earlier this year Governor List was leaning toward the MX. But his views changed dramatically following the release of the environmental impact statement. "It's one of the worst impact statements ever pre pared," states Steve Bradhearst who heads Nevada's MX field office. Please turn to Page 12 Oil and gas leases. Geologists now be lieve that the Overthrust Belt, the hottest oil and gas "play" in the continental US, may cut across the Great Basin where the MX_ would be deployed. A number of companies have oil and gas leases in the area under the Mineral Leasing Act of 1920. The companies may sue if their activities.are restricted. Minerals. The area is also the site of considerable mining activity. Deposits of gold, silver, copper, molybdenum, uranium, and a number of other value minerals have been found. Under the 1872 Mining Act pat ented mining claims are private property even though located on pub1ic land. Water. Because it is available in such limited quantities"' water is a particularly controversial issue. The MX would consume a total of 310,000 to 570,000 acre-feet of water for construction and a 20-year lifetime. The Air Force has proposed taking unclaimed groundwater, but the hydrology of the area is so complex that the results of such an ac tion cannot be predicted. Environment. Construction of shelters and roads could disturb as much as 4,000 square miles of arid land. To revegetate this land would require more than 3 million acre feet of land. Not only would this be extremely expensive, but it would greatly increase the water problem .. If not done, however, airborne dust levels in the area would be increased 10 to 20 times, to levels that violate the Clean Air Act standards.

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE OCT 4 '981 Reagan right to scrap MX '~hell game'. y 1 P;esident .. Reagan announced late last week that the complex missile-basing method involving 200 MX missiles and 4,600 silos in Nevada and Utah was being officially discarded. The missiles would have been shuttled underground between silos in an eUort to confuse the Soviets. The MX decision is perhaps the most im sportant development in the administration's newly announced defense policy. THE SHELL-GAME basing system suf fered from a fatal flaw. If the U.S. attempted to construct the 4,600 silos in Nevada and Utah, the Russians could have built an equivalent number of missiles with which to destroy them by the time they were opera. tional. Thus, our land-based missiles still would be as vulnerable as before. And that is as suming that the Russians would: be unable to detect where each missile was hidden. Last March the Qffice of Technology WSffient sent a report to Congress which concuded that the Soviets probably could develop a detection system even before the MX was fully deployed. The cost of this vast shell-game would have been a minimum of $50 billion. And apart from military or cost considerations, the water needs for construction and opera tion would be around 120 billion gallons over a 20-year period, enough to seriously jeopardize water availability in those states~ INSTEAD OF 200 MX missiles, each with ten warheads, Reagan proposed building 100, and basing them in greatly hardened existing silos currently being used by outmoded Titan and Minuteman III missiles. These are located in Arizona, Arkansas, and Kansas. Hardening these silos would protect the missiles from everything except an absolute direct hit by a Soviet missile. Inasmuch as accuracy tests have never been conduct. ed over the polar route that would be used in actual combat, Soviet military authori.ties could not count on targeting that accurately. Hardening existing silos would be far less costly, and provide sufficient protection during that period ref erred to as the "win. dow of vulnernbility." In the meantime, fur ther study would be condticteaon-otherbas-. ing-options, including putting the missiles in aircraft, or in deep,underground silos. Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger told newsmen that proof of the success of the U.S. defense proposals would be if they. never had to be used. ,. Under the circumstances, we would pre fer the scaled-down 'deployment system c-::in the hope it never will be used to the vast, costly, ineffective, and now discarded, shell-game formerly proposed. : Summary: Reagan made a wise move in abandoning the missile~shuttling system for basing the new MX missiles.

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE Springfield (OH) News Oct. 1, 1981 By Lind Or Ai.:, MX Best Served At Sea Submarine-based MX missiles will be less vulnerable to a Soviet first strike than a desert "shell-game" system. The word comes from a congressional research team which studied MX basing proposals and from the U.S. ,af; _fic,~f Ieswi21p~ 6~essmen~. ree prmc1pa pomts are made: 1. There is no way to base the MXs "without serious risks or drawbacks." 2. Placing four missiles each on 51 diesel-electric-powered subs poses "no critical technical problems." 3. The controversial plan to hide the MXs by moving them secretly among underground shelters in Nevada and perhaps also Utah could make it more difficult for the United States and the Soviet Union to negotiate nuclear arms control. Orginally, the Carter administration proposed deploying 200 missiles among 4,600 shelters in Utah and Nevada. The Reagan administration is said to be considering a scaloo down plan involving 100 missiles and 1,000 shelters in Nevada. The researchers say that if the Soviets continue to expand their missile arsenal, even the more extensive Carter administration approach would be inadequate to protect the MXs from a first strike. More than that, the 100-missile plan would be almost useless in enabling the MX network to survive a Soviet attack. The Office of Technology Assessment estimates ''con, servately" that 8,250 MX shelters would be needed by 1990 and 12,500 by 1995 if the present Soviet buildup of missiles and warheads continues. Now to the fine print. The OTA says it cannot identify any technology offering the Soviets a breakthrough to im prove their ability to destroy submarines at sea. It adds that future sub-based missiles would be accurate enough to knock-out any military targets. Last February, Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger said a sea-based MX system was "a very long shot." He has advocated placing the missiles in aircraft, but a White House spokesman said in August that President Reagan was learning toward land basing. There's another problem. The complexity of a multiple shelter system. would raise serious arms control negotiat ing problems. Although Reagan has repudiated the SALT II treaty negotiated by the Carter administration, he has promised "meaningful negotiations" toward a limit on nuclear arms. The multiple-shelter approach would radically alter the arms control negotiating environment because of the difficulty of verifying the number of warheads. Such a system would create a need for arms control negotiations to become ever more deeply and intimately involved in the specification of detailed procedures of weapon system deployment and peacetime operation. It would appear the MX would be best "served up" at J sea. i

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t~S VBGfiS, f!tV. SUN D. 57,655 S. 60,005 <;~T S4 O?~ SEP 2 ?.1981 $J.&AF Plan Would Have Missiles Stored1n:Mouhtain Caverns Nevertheless, the OTA noted, "it could play a: By GARY C. GERARD.. useful part in the overall strategic nuclear force a$! SUN Staff Writer a secure resen-e force. The Air Force is considering an interesting, and ''Post-attack e11durance might very good,. somewhat unusual, concept for basing the MX after perhaps a year orlonger. Furthermore, it, could have the initial deployment of 100 nuclear missi~esJg the a stabilizing effect. and. sen-e as a deterrent to war desert West. ... .. .. due to its high survivabiUty to nuclear attack," the The congressional Office of Technologt Asss;a: report said. .Wtl]Ja.in its_ recent 33~page HQ! Missile Basing" "Much work on the detailed concept, research and: study, referred to the alternative as "deep under development,, and validation of design. would be ground." needed." And Defense Department planners, called it"hard And construction delays "could be expected, as tunnel," ".central arsenal". and "citadel" deployment experience in previous underground excavation pro-, in their report, "ICBM Basing Optits," released jects ,indicates unexpected geological conditions .that December 1980; hamper progress." The plan has missiles stored in mountain caverns, ; The OT,.__ review staff, however, was not about to thousands of feet under the surface. shelve the plan. . On command, tunnels would be bored through the .. They told Congress that "excavation experience IS -rock. Transporter trucks would then move the misavailable from many commercial and dvil projects. siles above ground. where they would pop from their Land area requirements are ukely to be relatively launch. canisters and blast toward distant military small." targets. Their report listed two candidate. locations fOl' The OT A report said, "This method of launch hollow mountain missile bases: One in the area of would not be rapid. due to the 1lengthy excavation Grand Mesa, Colo.; and a site in southern Utah. process, and could take a period of days to perhaps The Defense Department was less kind. weeks." .. "Construction costs are very high. For example; Deep underground deployment, then,. "would not the estimated cost of constructing a 25-foot wide be suitable as a quick-response force for tim~urgent tunnel in hard rock is from $20 million to $40 million missions after the initial attack -a major stated per mile of tunnel,'' the Pentagon report said. requirement for the MX missile." The superhard "dig out" concept has the advaqtage '; T., .. 'I -~ ;. of "high survivability, excellent post-attack en-i durance, independence of .warning, low environmen-i tal impact and a safe separation from the public." 1 But ,there would be "great difficulty of assuring' survivable commur,ications into the tunnels after attack. Unless there were a very large number of antennas, the antennas would be very high value ,_ ,, "'~ r ,,;(:t, ;= ''S ''. ::;:.: targets themselves/' ; ii! T. he report;' sa_ .. i._d,_ "Another_. diffic_ ulty is hardn~_-. ~assessment. It may .be impossible to specify a SQ$ vivabie design with 'confidence unless there atmospheric nuclear tests," which are banned by t}1!! Treaty Banning N:uclear Weapons Tests in the M! mosphere, Outer Space and Underwater. !" + _:_ ___ An additional dra_ wb_ __ ack is t.b e _slow reaction urii_il ___ "The missiles caonot be launched quickly, and utitE a major, technol':lC. _de~onstration .program is. CQQl1 ducted, the egress, time cannot be confident
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THE NASHVILLE TE~.1NESSEAN NI\SHVIL[E, mm, D. 131,895 SUN. 242,630 SEP 2 1 t981 Scaled-Down MX Version Is Still Illogical Plan ,~ 7"'"'"' DEFENSE Secretary Caspar Wein berger, after pondering various options tor months, has recommended a scaled-down version of the MX missile system to be located in Nevada. Mr. Weinberger recommended having 100 missiles scattered among 1,000 shel ters. The original plan was to spread 200 of t~e missiles among 4,600 shelters in Utah and Nevada. The congressional Office ot Technology estimated the cost at $43 bill~on. The object of this race-track, shell-.. game system was to give the MX a de gree of protection from Soviet missiles which are sairl to become increasingly accurate. But the scaled down version is no more appealing than the first plan and the cost will still be high with little or no indication that the natio~al security will be any better off. Recently the (lfflce of Issbu0i0~~ sewzmeot. an independent agency web. does scientific studies for the Congress, issued a report on the plan that was ad vanced by Mr. Weinberger. Its report said that .. in order to insure the survival of 100 MX missiles against the probable increase fn Soviet missUes, the U.S. would have. to deploy 360 missiles and 8,250 shelters by 1990 and a total of 550 mis siles and 12,500 shelters by 1995. The OTA study also considered four other basing ideas had serious problems in terms of costs and technical prob lems. In short the OT A study seems to have taken a very dim view of the whole idea of MX basing. \ The Pentagon's argument has been that its Minuteman missiles are becoming increasingly vulnerable to a Soviet first strike, which would leave the U.S. with the choice of absolute destruction or surrender. From a practical standpoint the idea doesn't hold much water. The U.S. has other missiles than the landbased Minuteman submarine borne missiles that are constantly on the move. It would be relatively impossible for the Soviet to find them instantly if lt launched an attack. Such a first strike by the Russians would certainly be followed by retaliation from the U.S. and the 4amage to both countries wol,lld be so awesome and lasting that even an at tempt on the part of the Soviet would be a case of utter madness. It is curious that the Reagan adminis tration seems not to have given thought ful analysis to linkage between pressing on with rearmament and the possibility for arms control to keep down the num bers in the nuclear arsenals. Mr. Reagan said at one point during the campaign that the only way to bar gain with the Soviet Union on arms con trol was to bargain from strength. Both sides now have enough missiles in their nuclear arsenals to destroy half the world and leave a vast atomic waste land. At some point rationality has to come to the fore If there were any guarantee that a hundred MX missiles racing around a drag strip in the western U.S. would give it even a degree of invulnerability~ it might be worth the costly undertaking. There is none. And while the U.S. should modernize its missile forces as fast as reasonably possible; the MX system is a costly illusion. .J, I

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DILLON CO. THE SUMMIT SENTINEL "' 3,000 SEP 18 19S\ 4 _______ ..... __.... ............ ......The MX shell game President Reagan is finally conceding that his sup ply-side economic program is a recipe for inflatiqtl. But his paltry $13 billion cuts from a $639.3 billion defense budget over the next two years won't stop in. flation and the national deficit from rising. And now he plans to continue this shell game by building the defenseless MX missile system at an initial cost of $43 billion, with an eventual cost of $80 billion, plus an additional $200 billion for bombers to protect the MX missiles. THESE STAGGERING figures addedup represent more than the entire budget deficit over the next four years. Plus, there are many experts, including the Con ressional ffice I that have deter mine at t e proposed 100 missiles shuttled between 1,000 underground shelters in Nevada wouldn't sur-. vive a Soviet attack in any case. By the time the U.S. completes construction of the sites, the Soviets will have enough missiles to knock out all l ,000 silos. Clearly, ,Reagan's decision is a boondoggl~ for defense contractors, and the construction companies that will build the underground tombs, the massive network of roads (alm~st as many miles as the entire Interstate system nationwide), and lay the railroad tracks 'to shuttle these multi-headed anti-ballistic monsters from shelter to shelter. Ultimately, the mobsters who own the casinos in Nevada will pick up a good portion of this inflationary cash flow. The missiles will be installed just ,outside of Las Vegas. The state of Nevada now supports the MX. The odds are in their favor, while Utah and the Mormon Church still op pose the system, blocking construction there. SINCE THE SUMMIT is a major s~pplier of water to the Colorado River, where some of the massive amount of water needed to construct the project will come from, we have an added concern. This use of a precious life~giving cornrnl;ldity for unneeded in struments of death increases our costs dramatically. The entire nation will suffer from the inflationary and arms race spiral it causes. Even if one spports the concept.of a new missile ; system to get ahead in the arms race, the MX is a waste of money and adds little, if anything, in the form of "protection." Bu~it will bring us closer to the brink or' economic collapse, military annihilation, while drying up precious71~tural resourc7s. :. ,,_ ... __ ,,..

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The Implications of Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Medical Technology I -\

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE Reduction~~!r, Use of /PPB Found Safe, Cost Effective WASHlNGTON -1 A g6vei'iiment ing the 1970s received respiratory more effective than simpler and less lives of critically ill patients for exstudy has shown that the use of costly therapy. One-fourth of these patients costly therapy, such as oxygen, aeroample, those suffering from paralysis mechanical breathing devices in hoswere given intermittent positive pressol and chest physiotherapy. of the respiratory muscles or chest pitals can probably be reduced with-sure breathing (IPPB) therapy the The agency based its findings on a wall injuries -has been well estab-out sacrificing patient care. use of a machine that pumps air into survey of five teaching hospitals in lished, the OTA study said IPPB is not The Congressional J~Sh-;. the lungs at rhythmic intervals -the Washington, D.C. area which always more effective than other 119logy Assessmei;iL(OTA) study indimaking IPPB the most widespread showed a sharp decrease from 1976 to treatments. cated that betwe;;n 25% and 30% of method of treatment. 1979 in the use of IPPB treatments. It In many cases IPPB therapy is used all patients admitted to hospitals dur-But OTA concluded that IPPB is not said these centers had moved in the to deliver an aerosol medication into HPN HDSPITAIJ vPURCHASIMG, !MEW~ WASHINGTO~, D.C. MONTHLY ,, / DEC 1981 '*'1 'i\ ), ( i' direction of using less costly treatment methods without government regulations and with little or no plan a patient's lungs to treat bronchial in fections. But OTA said two other de vices -the ultrasonic nebulizer and the simple aerosol generator have been found to be just as effective as ning. While the effectiveness of mechani cal breathing devices in saving the Continued on page 30. Reductions From page 1. an IPPB machine for aerosol therapy. The incentive spirometer was also found by OTA to be a suitable alternative to the IPPB. Used to prevent lung collapse, it requires the patient to breathe deeply, raising a plastic ball. According to the OTA study, in some instances the spirometer has been shown to be more effective than an IPPB machine. In its study of the Washington area hospitals, OTA found that the number of IPPB treatments per 100 admis sions decreased about 70%, and ultrasonic nebulizer treatments, approximately 75%. On the other hand, the number of simple aerosol treatments increased over 300%, and incentive ~pirometry treatments, more than 100%. According to OTA, the multiple treatments usually required by respiratory therapy patients were "sub stantially less costly" when the incen tive spirometer or simple aerosol generator were used, as opposed to both the IPPB machine and the ultrasonic nebulizer. The OTA study estimated that the substitution of simple aerosols or in centive spirometers for half of the decrease in IPPB treatments could produce annual cost savings of approximately $400,000 for the hospitals sur veyed. The agency stressed, however, that the estimate would require further study to completely validate its accuroc~ 0

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE Medical Products Sales November 1981 Hospital Savings Seen In /PPB Alternatives WASHINGTON -Hospitals can reduce the cost of relatively routine respiratory therapy by using aerosol generators and incentive spirometers in many cases rather than intermittent positive pressure breathing equipment, according to the congres sional Office ,qf,.;I'ec~ology :J\ssess; ment .(OT A). '" In a report titled "Assessing Selected Respiratory Therapy Modali ties: Trends and Relative Costs in the Washington, D.C. Area," the OTA said, "Many comparative studies have concluded that intermittent positive pressure breathing (IPPB) is not more ef fective than simpler, less costly treatments." Though the report ac knowledges IPPB's ability to provide effective routine therapy and its im-portance in saving lives of critically ill patients (such as those suffering from paralysis of the respiratory muscles or chest wall injuries), "for some other purposes, IPPB does not appear to be more effective than other treatments." The effective but less expensive treatments cited in the report were aerosol therapy and treatment to pre vent lung collapse, particularly during the postoperative period when the patient's breathing is hindered by medication, anesthetic or pain. Aero sol generators or incentive spirometers are just as effective and less cost ly than IPPB for such therapies, the report said. "For example, IPPB therapy is often used to deliver an aerosol medicaindication, health care institutions are learning that fact. The survey found that the number of IPPB treatments per 100 admissions fell by 70% from 1976 to 1979. During that same period, the number of aerosol treatments rose by more than 300% and incentive spirometry increased by more than 100%. "As an illustration of possible cost savings due to the increased use of less costly treatments, the case study estimates that the substitution of sim ple aerosols or incentive spirometers for half of the decrease in IPPB could produce an annual cost savings of ap proximately $400,000," the OTA said, emphasizing the figure was an estimate that should be subject to further investigation. The OT A conducted the study in re sponse to a request from the Senate Committees on Labor and Human Resources and Finance. For copies, contact the Government Printing Office, Superintendent of Documents, Wash ington, D.C. 20402. The report has a GPO stock number of 052-003 843-2, and costs $2.50. D tion into a patient's lungs to treat bronchial infections. Two other de vices -the ultrasonic nebulizer and the simple aerosol generators have been found to be just as effective as an IPPB machine for aerosol ther apy," said OTA. Likewise, IPPB has been used to prevent post-operative lung collapse, but, "an. alternative device is the incentive spirometer ... According to the case study, in some instances, the spirometer has been shown to be more effective than IPPB machines." Not only can hospitals provide ef fective therapies if they use alternate devices, they can save money, the report continues. And, if the five.Wash ington, D.C., teaching hospitals that comprised the study's scope are any

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE Nurst practitioners give MD income big boost Nurse practitioners are very cost effec t~ve-they can bring in a lot of extra in come to physicians who employ them. So concludes a recent report by the congressional Qllice of Te9,rno!r9,~ f.\~ssment.LOTA) ?,~ th~ ef'rtc o "physician exTenclers, 1nclud1ng prac titioners and physicians' assistants. Money is usually the doctor's primary RR DRADEU.:, N.J. MONTHLY 269,000 NOV 1981 mottve in hiring nurse practitioners, the OTA found. In one California study, the average annual net revenue of a nurse practitioner was $18,653 in a solo rural medical practice, resulting in an in crease in the employer physician's income of more than a third. Although expenditures for practices that employ physician extenders are 19 to 24 percent higher than those for practices without them, the extenders can increase patient volume by 50 to 60 percent, thereby raising revenues. Nurse practitioners also increase pa tient access to medical care, the OTA study found, ''The increase in medical care expenditures associated with physician extenders may be outweighed by the benefits their presence brings through increased access," notes its report. Despite their cost-effectiveness, however, nurse practitioners face an _uncertain professional future, the OTA study concludes, due to the rapid escalation of medical school enrollments and the pro jected boom in physician supply. Although the current supply of nurse practitioners-about 13,000-will more than double by 1990, doctors will -still outnumber physician extenders collec tively by 10 to one. This could shrink employment opportunities for nurse practitioners and other physician ex tenders. "Physicians may be recapturing pri mary care responsibilities that not so long ago they considered delegating," notes the report. Prepaid group health plans such as health maintenance or ganizations (HMOs) appear to offer nurse practitioners the best job future because administrators of these plans have an incentive to deliver services cost-effectively, reports the OTA.II

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE JOURNAL OF PRACTICAL NURSING NEW YORK, N. Y. MONTHLY 39 000 NOV DEC 1981 &ft& Booklet on Health Care Cost Effectiveness The Of.1J~..C1:~chnology -".'-ss;~s~~-~t.(OTA), which 1s a nonpartisan group of researcners who work for Congress, has just published the latest in a series of booklets on the cost-effectiveness of new medical technologies. This new booklet is called "The Costs and Effectiveness of Neonatal Intensive Care." Using data from a University of California study, OTA notes that in 1978, 16,000 babies weighing under 1,500 grams at birth survived and will likely lead normal lives, because they were cared for in neonatal intensive care units. Not too long ago, most of these babies would have died. But 350 babies in the same weight range who were also placed in the special units survived, only to be severely handicapped. The OTA writers concede that it is difficult to judge the cost effectiveness of neonatal intensive care, particularly for those babies who became severely handicapped, since there "is no way to judge the quality of life these individuals will attain." However, they warn that there is real doubt about the wisdom of trying to save very low birth weight babies (those born at under 1,000 grams). Not many people outside Washington know OTA exists, although its papers are excellent. If you're interested in the care of preemies or are doing research in this area, you will want a copy of OTA's study, which is valuable for the bibliographies alone. Write to the Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Send a check or money order for $3.75 and ask for publication #052-003-008845-9, giving the title. D -:..:

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Cheaper Respiratory Therapies Effective In Hospital Patients International Medical News Service WASHINGTON -Simple aerosol and incentive spirometry treatments are as effective and considerably cheaper than ultrasonic nebulizer and intermittent positive pressure breathing therapies for hospitalized patients who need respira tory therapy, according to a background paper by the Congressional ~!S.,._Qf ~:~1?1\~1~Jil6~6t~~e cheaper methods in hospitals could lead to a substantial savings without any reduc tion in the quality of care, the paper says. In a study of the 26 responding Washington area hospitals that offer respiratory therapy, the OT A discovered that 44 of every l 00 patients admitted to hospitals received some form of re spiratory therapy, a dramatic increase over past treatment patterns. This increase occurred despite the lack of proved efficacy of some of the procedures for some of the conditions on which they were used; studies on the subject are woefully inadequate, it says. Private, for-profit hospitals were re sponsible for more than their share of this increase, particularly in the use of the more expensive, higher technology intermittent positive pressure breathing and ultrasonic nebulizer therapies. They gave far more total treatments per 100 patient admissions, far more treatments per patient, and far more treatments with the expensive technol ogies than other hospitals. This occurred despite the lack of evidence indicating that the more ex~ pensive methods were any more effica cious than simpler, cheaper methods, the paper says. A review of relevant reports indi cates that several minutes of supervised hyperventilation may open clogged airways as well as intermittent positive pressure breathing treatments. Delivery of a medication by a simple aerosol generator may be as effective as deliv ery by an ultrasonic nebulizer. The prevention of lung collapse in patients is another frequently invoked reason for using intermittent positive pressure breathing; most studies on the subject fail to show measurable FROM THE PRESS OFFICE Family Practice News Nov, 151 1981 benefit from this treatment, however. Government hospitals used respiratory therapy, particularly the. more ex pensive technologies, the least of all hospitals surveyed, the OTA says. At the five teaching hospitals in the study, physicians seem to have already gotten the message that costlier is not necessarily better. The number of intermittent positive pressure breathing treatments used in these hospitals declined 70% during the 1976-1979 period, and the number of ultrasonic nebulizer treatments declined by 75%. During the same period, the use of simple aerosol treatments rose by 300% and the use of incentive spirometry treatments increased by 200%. If one~half of the decline in use of the more expensive methods was re placed by use of simple aerosol and incentive spirometry treatments, an an nual savings of $408,000 could be real ized, the paper says. From 25% to 30% of all patients admitted to hospitals in the 1970' s re ceived some form of respiratory therapy. More than one-fourth of these re ceived intermittent positive pressure breathing, the single largest respir~tor-y treatment modality. Respiratory therapy cost Americans $700 million in 1975 and more than $1 billion in 1979. If the trend towards cheaper respira tory therapy modalities that was ob served in the teaching hospitals occurs in other hospitals, important reductions in the costof health care could be the result The paper, which is not a policy statement by the OTA, was prepared for the Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources. It also was submit ted to the Senate Committee on Fi nance.

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Nation's Health October 1981 New Technique May Be Effective Against Gum Disease According to one of the case studies recently released by the Of.!i~9f.,,'rechnology As.s~~m!:l~ a new technique for controlling gum disease may be effective, but it is still too early to determine whether it works over the long-term. The Keyes technique, devel oped by Dr. Paul Keyes at the National Institute of Dental Research, substitutes a combination method of home oral hygiene for oral surgery. The treatment includes microscopic examination of bacterial activity in pockets beneath the gum line, a combination of daily tooth brushing and gum cleaning with use of an irrigation device, massage with a paste of baking soda and hydrogen peroxide to attack bacteria and shrink swollen tissues. In some cases a salt solution to tighten loose gums and an antibiotic may be used. Total cost is $120 as compared to $800 to $1,000 for oral surgery. The OTA case study, "Periodontal Disease: Assessing the Effectiveness and Costs of the Keyes Technique," is available at the US Government Printing Office, Superintendent of Documents, Washington, DC 20402. The GPO stock number is 052-003-00817-3. The price is $2.75.

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE I : OT A Analysis Claims Endoscopy Costs Excessive WASHINGTON Two new studies of the cost effectiveness of medical technologies have been released by the Congressional Offic~. ?f ,.Te,~,9lQgy,_A~ste/lt (OTA). The studies look at upper gastroin testinal endoscopy, bone marrow_ transplants and the way in which new technologies become part of the health care system. They are part of 17 papers which form Background Paper #2 to the OTA's "The Implica tions of Cost Effectiveness Analysis of Medical Technology," a project res quested by the Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources. The study on upper gastrointestinal endoscopy found an excess in cost and volume for the procedure. Its au thors recommended that physician re imbursement be lowered to a level closer to the actual cost of perfc,rm ing the procedure and that the pro vider community develop guidelines governing which physicians perform the procedure and which symptoms should be evident before it is per formed. Prepared by Jonathan A. Show stack, MPH, and Dr. Steven A. Shroeder, both of the Health Policy Program at the University of Califor nia, San Francisco, the study estimates that approximately 500,000 en doscopies are done annually in the U.S. at a cost in physician charges of $122 million. The procedure, which involves lowering a flexible fiberoptic endoscope through the throat to look at the upper gastrointenstinal tract from the esophagus to the upper por tion of the small intestine, is usually done for diagnostic purposes. How ever, the study contends that there is little evidence the procedure either improves treatment or changes reco very rates, although it does provide a more precise diagnosis. Using data from Blue Shield of Cali fornia, the authors estimate that the oooooonnnnnnnnnftftftAAAA~----AAAAAftftftftftftOOOOOOOQQOOOOOOO. c\ t" MPS MEDICAL PRODUCTS SALES NORTHFIELD1 ILL. MONTHLY 19.240 SEP 1981 -----.. ". i 'f.\ ,.',l "' .. ,, average cost to a physician for per forming a routine endoscopy ranges from $41 to $83 depending on volume. The median charge in California for physician services for this procedure was estimated at about $240, or three to six times higher than the actual cost. It is for this reason that the study concludes that reimbursement should be lowered and that guidelines be set to limit the number of physi cians who do the procedure and the number of patients who undergo it. The study on bone marrow transplant therapy for the treatment of aplastic anemia and acute leukemia also suggests general policy options to strengthen controlover the way in which new medical technologies be come part of the health care system. Prepared for OTA by Dr. Stuart L. Schweitzer and C.C. Scalzi, RN, both of the School of Public Health at the University of California, Los Angeles, the study notes that the widespread diffusion of certain new medical tech nologies has contributed to rising health care costs because, coupled with the widespread availability of third party payment, it has greatly increased demand for services and made both consumers and providers less sensitive to cost. Transplanted bone marrow can re place diseased bone marrow in the same way that a transplanted kidney can replace a diseased kidney. Acute leukemia and aplastic anemia patients who do not respond to conven tional therapy are potential candidates for BMT therapy. The study uses data from the UCLA bone-marrow transplantation program, which does about SO a year and is the second ~1-~ largest of the six centers in the country which perform this delicate proce dure. One hundred and seven patients who received BMT therapy were compared with those who received con ventional therapy. The mean total cost of the BMT treatment was estimated at approximately $67,772, compared with $21,729 for conventional therapy for aplastic anemia and $30,105 for conventional therapy for acute leukemia. Based on an observed three-year survival rate, the study concluded that BMT therapy yields an important average life extension, while conventional therapy does not significantly improve patient out come. However, the quality of life is an important factor, since many of the patients who survive treatment continue to be seriously ill. Thus the cost-effectiveness of the treatment varies significantly per life saved or extended, depending on the group of patients to which it is applied. The study notes that new decisions have to be made regarding new tech nologies in the interests of cost containment, particularly by third party payers who may have to decide which services to cover and for whom. The study also suggests that insurers may have to specify Jhe locations in which a procedure can take place as well as the characteristics of those patients entitled to coverage. It also suggests that third-party payers define new procedures as either treatment or re search, with the implication that new procedures will be considered research until their effectiveness and costs are demonstrated to be accepta ble. D 1

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FDC !REPORTS WASHINGTON, iO.C. A1Uu-NOV 9 1981 / TAaAMET PATIENTS SPEND MORE DAYS ON JOB THAN PLACEBO PATIENTS, TRIALS SHOW; OTA COST/BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF CIMETIDINE: DRUG COULD REDUCE NATL. ULCER COSTS I Tagamet-treated gastric ulcer patients averaged significantly more days on the job than placebo patients in two randomized clinical trials, the Congressional Office of Technologx Assessment (OT A) reported in a recently released "background paper" on the cost/benefit analysis of ci~etiJine as a medical intervention. OT A, summarizing the results of one trial comparing maintenance cimetidine with placebo, said that ''the cimetidine-treated patients reported to work an average of approximately 36 more days per patient during the year of the study." During the study, OT A noted, "1 of 32 patients taking cime tidine did not report to work for 79 days, and 23 of 26 patients taking placebo did not report to work for a total of 1,405 days because of symptoms." Another trial cited by OTA involved 37 cimetidine and 27 placebo patients. That trial showed that "compared to the number of days lost from work during the week prior to treatment, the group receiving cimetidine averaged significantly more days of work in weeks one, two and four (p <0.001) and in week six (p< 0.05) following the initiation of treatment." Although cimetidine treatment v. placebo improves work attendance, ac cording to the results of the two studies, OTA pointed out that "the effec tiveness of cimetidine compared to other treatments, such as antacids, in enabling patients to return to work is not addressed in any of the controlled trials we have reviewed." The OT A cost/benefit analysis of cimetidine as a medical intervention is one of a series of case studies of medical technologies prepared by the Congressional research arm. The study consists of a comparative analysis of the costs of cimetidine in treating peptic ulcer against the costs for other treat ment, such as surgery or antacids. The paper also examines the relationship of cimetidine therapy to overall health care co!lts. The study also concludes that "a typical patient can expect to pay no more, and possibly somewhat less, for cimetidirie than for a therapeutically equivalent course of popular, brandname ant acids." In reaching that conclusion, OT A compared the costs of Tagamet with Maalox and Mylanta II. Assuming the consumption by an ulcer patient of four 300 mg tablets of cimetidine at a cost of "ap,. proximately 25 to 30" per tablet, OTA said "the daily cost of cimetidine i~ $1 to $1.20.'' OT A reasoned that "if we assume administration of the same amount of antacid as used [in clinical studies], (seven daily doses, each with approximately 120 mEq of buffering capacity), the daily cost would be approximately $1.58 for Maalox (seven 45 ml doses) and $2.22 for Mylanta (seven 30 ml doses). If patients who are prescribed cimetidine consume three or four additional doses of an tacid daily, their medication costs would still be comparable to those of patients who follow an intense antacid regimen." ..,. In an analysis of the "social resource implications" of cimetidine, OTA discussed a study sponsored by SK&F Labs, entitled "The Impact of Cimetidine on the Natl. Cost of Duodenal Ulcers" conducted under contract by Robinson Associates. The study estimated, OT A said, "that if cimetidine had been used in 800/o of duodenal ulcer patients in the U.S., 1977 natl. health care costs for duodenal ulcer disease would have been reduced by $645 mil. (290Jo of that study's estimated total expenditures for duodenal ulcer)." The figure represents a $271 mil. savings in medical care costs (a gross savings of $305 mil. minus $34 mil. in drug costs), OT A explained. The $305 mil. is comprised of hospital care ($258 mil.) and surgeons' fees ($30 mil.). "In addition to the $271 mil. net savings in medical expenditures, the study estimated that $373 mil. would have been gained from increased productivity."

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE Nature Magazine October 8, 1981 Technology assessment wins new friends Washington Two years off its tenth birthday, the United S(ates Congress's Office of Tech nology Assessment (OT A) at last seems to be coming of age. By adopting a more pragmatic outlook OT A has generated a political and scientific credibility that makes its prospects more secure than ever before. The change has its critics. "OT A is turning out good craft pieces that serve the interests of clients, but there is still a latent demand for something which is more policyand futures-rich" says Du.Joseph Coates, who was among the original staff members and recently left to establish his own consultancy firm. But evidence of the new-found stability, which broadly coincides with the reign of OT A's present director, Dr John Gibbons, previously head of the Energy, Environ ment and Resources Center at the Univer sity of Tennessee, was shown last week by the willingness of a Republican-dominated Senate, in a time of reduced federal spending, to increase the OT A's budget by 7 .5 per cent next year to $12 million. Even though this will barely allow OT A to keep up with inflation, it compares with the budget to which the office has been held between 1980 and 1981. When OT A was established by Congress in 1972, finally coming into being in November 1973, many saw it -with some justification as a vehicle through which Democrat legislators hoped to challenge the scientific and technical decisions of the Nixon Administration following the demise of the Office of Science and Tech nology and the President's Science Advisory Committee. OTA's new-found friends, however, mclude conservative Republicans such as Senator Paul Lax.alt of Nevada. Senator Lax.alt is said to have been impressed by a recent study carried out by OT A compar ing different basing modes for the MX missile which point out the advantages and drawbacks of each without endorsing a particular design, issues directly pertinent to the debate about placing the missiles in his home state. The importance of such friends emerged two weeks ago, when they helped to head off an attempt by Senator Mack Mattingly, chairman of the Senate appropriations subcommittee responsible for legislative affairs, to kill future funding for the OTA on the grounds that its studies duplicate the work of other bodies such as the Con gressional Research Service. It was a charge that was strongly denied by Dr Gibbons in hearings on the OTA budget earlier this year. He pointed out that-the cases quoted by Mr Mattingly for example of consulting firms carrying out the same work for different agencies were several years old, and that with a tighter management structure and more narrowly defined missions, OT A was now beginning to demonstrate unique value to Congress. Much to OTA's relief, Senator Mattingly did not take his case to the floor of the Senate, and OTA's 1982 budget is now secure. "I presume it did not come up because a lot of people on both sides of the aisle have come to see OT A as a useful and important analytical tool", said Dr Gibbons last week. Much of the recent work, both long-term and short-term, has impressed OT A's con gressional clients. "Some of their stuff is really excellent, particularly in the energy field" says one staff member of the House Science and Technology Committee. A recent report, Impacts of A12olie!: J;ienetics, an analysis of the economic and commercial implications of genetic engineering applied to microorganisms, plan ts and animals, has been widely praised and recently reached the "top ten list" of government publications. One secret of OT A's survival seems to be its greater awareness of the limits within whi~h it can safely operate. The genetic engineering study, for example, avoided all discussion of the human apllicatio~ as "beyond its scope", and the MX study, while studying the "socio-economic" implications of the weapons' deployment, did not discuss political factors such as the full implications of local resistance. Dr Gibbons explains this pragmatically. '"Our job is to narrow the issues that must be fought out rather than to tell the politicians what they should do'', he says. He talks of breaking problems down into "bite-size" pieces, referring, for example, to recent OT A studies on energy utilization and demand. Dr Gibbons is currently trying to forge closer links with the National Academy of Sciences, as well as discussing ways of complementing the policy orientations of the Office of Science and Technology Policy. Drawing technology assessment more closely into the traditional nexus of political decision-making may have dis enchanted some of its earlier enthusiasts. But it has proved to be a formula for political survival. David Dickson

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NEWSWEEK NATIONAL AFFAIRS October 5, 1981 -----------------------Thinking the Unthinkable T he first warning would be the flare or the engines as the Russian m1ss1les hft off, an incandescence visible to sensors on satellites poised 22,000 miles above the In dian Ocean. The message would flash to the North American Aerospace Defense Com mand (NORAD) in Cheyenne Mountain, Colo., to Strategic Air Command head quarters in Omaha, to the Pentagon and 10 the White House: confirmed launch, desti nation not vet known, half an hour to im pact. Withi~ minutes the computers would be at work. spitting out precise targets of the Soviet attack: military installations, not cities-a gamble on limited war. At fifteen minutes to impact, the President, already en route to an ai-rborne control center, would face his few grim choices. He could retaliate in kind, escalate or surrender. Fourteen minutes to impact ... Even though the world has lived with the bomb for nearly two generations. the idea of an actual nuclear war between the super powers--or between two other nations for that matter-still defies comprehension. How could it possibly begin? And how would it end-in the global holocaust of science fiction or in a limited exchange of weapons that leaves population cen ters largely intact? The Soviet Union has based its nuclear policy on the sec ond option for nearly twenty years, and Controls for guiding a nuclear bomb Herman Kokc1an-B1ack Star now U.S. strategic planners are being forced to respond._The result, reflected in Ronald Reagan's effort to bolster America s nuclear arsenal. is the acceptance of the theory of limited war: that the onlv credible deterrent to a nuclear war is the ~illingness to fight one. Signaling the new attitude over a year As the superpowers talk of a 'winnable' nuclear war_, the world becomes a more dangerous place. ago, George Bush spoke of emerging "a win ner" in a nuclear exchange-and more re cently, Administration officials have talked of surviving a limited war in better shape than the other side. Many critics believe that mere discussion of'winnable" nuclear war increases the chance of one occurring and button. The strategy became known as "Mutual Assured Destruction," MAD for short. Nuclear war was declared unthink able, and so it remained-in the popular mind-for nearly two decades. But by the 1970s U.S. strategists had begun to question the underlying assump tions of MAD. Just because the United States believed war ro be unthinkable, the reasoning went, it did not necessarily follow that the Russians agreed. In fact, some strategists argued, the Russians-spotting softness in U.S. resolve-might launch a limited nuclear attack at American militarv targets and reserve sufficient strength to deter a response. As Richard Nixon put it in 1970, "Should a Presidet'lt, in the event of a nuclear attack, be left with a single option of ordering the mass destruction of enemy ci vilians, in the face of the certainty that it would be followed by the mass slaughter of Americans?" If the onlv choice was be tween surrender and national suicide, an enemy might rationally assume that the President would prefer surrender. The logi cal conclusion, said the strategists, was that MAD invited the Russians to roll the --_, -fl!x~~ __ Sygma The new breed: Testing a cruise missile inevitably escalating into full~scale conflict. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists agrees: at the end of 1980 its famous "doomsday clock" was moved.up three notches to just four minutes before midnight. The notion of a survivable nuclear war marks the end of a long evolution in Ameri can strategic thinking. Under Eisenhower, the United States enjoyed a virtual monopo ly on nuclear weapons largely because of its superior delivery system, the B-52 bomber still in use. As a consequence, U.S. nuclear doctrine was based on the threat of "mas sive retaliation" to punish Russian adven turism in areas deemed vital to the West. Then. when the Soviet Union developed long-range bombers and the Sputnik flight demonstrated Russia's technoloeical abili ty to deliver warheads long distance. with missiles. the strategy turned to deterrence. At that point the only imaginable outcome of a nuclear exchan 11:e was reciprocal devas tation. city for cit:i,-. Johnny for. Ivan. Nuclear weapons became deterrents to their own use: if the price of vaporizing Washington was the incineranon of Moscow, and vice versa. neither silie would dare push the no dete_rrent at all. Military intellectuals at think tanks like the Rand Corporationhad said for Sea trials: Trident sub off Florida Scott MacCla Tooa

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years that the United States should emulate the apparent Soviet willingness to wage a limited war. but government officials usual ly reJected such an idea. Many, perhaps most. continued to believe that a first use of nuclear weapons by either side would inexo rably lead to escalation. There also were budgetary considerations: limited-war ca pability, requiring pinpoint-accurate mis siles-and high-technology weapons like the radiation-enhanced neutron bomb, is ex pensive. Beginning in the midl 970s, war planners. led by then Defense Secretary James Schlesinger, came to believe that the United States should have other options than MAD .. You have to be able to plan for other contingencies than the one where you trash the cities ... says Kevin Lewis of Rand. "This doesn't say you want to fight a limited war, but it is essential you be able to." The trend continued in the Carter Administration with Presidential Directive 59, another step in the retreat from MAD to the flexible response strategy of limited war. The most talked aoout limited-war scenario takes the form of a "counterforce" attack-a strike at military targets such as missile fields and bomber bases, rather than at cities and industries (page 36). The idea is to cripple the other side's ability to wage war without killing so many civilians as to -:ncourage retaliation. According to the the ory, a credible counterforce capability re quires missiles accurate enough and in quantities large enough that the attacker has enough firepower in reserve to deter a second strike by threatening a third. According to some strategists, the Soviet Union now has this capability while the United States does not-an imbalance thev regard as dangerous. Says Colin Gray, di rector oi national-security studies at the Hudson Institute: "We're much less likely to have a war if the Soviets see us with an ability to fight a war at every level." 'BOOB Attack': Still, preparing for limited war might make it more likely, and the modem world is filled with opportunities for touching off such a conflict. Some strategists fear that the vulnerability of U.S. missile fielcls bv itself invites attack. In practice. howevir. most analysts discount the likelihood of what has been called a BOOB attack"-a bolt out of the blue. a rabbit punch without warning. Any strike would almost certainly be preceded by a period of rising international tension, and would probably be related to some already existing armed conflict. One popu lar scenario, daborated in the book The Third World War" bv a team of British military men and NATO advisers, imag ines the Russians provoking conventional war in Western Europe as a means of de flecting unrest among th-:ir satellites. As thev begin to lose that war. th-: Soviets lau;1ch ~1 desperate nuclear strike at a Western population center-in this case Birmingham. England-in an attempt to ~:un a more favorable settlement. \norher hvrothes1s t'ocus,~s on the: vu!nerability of \V
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' I -HOW-THE FALLOUT WOULDtSPREAD ( I After an attack on U.S. ICBM bases, prevailing winds (themap shows those typical in March) would carry fallout eastward. Casualties would soar ff even some of the SAC bases were also attacked. \ + Sa~+ frlnt1$CC + \ --------------r-----_,..,,. ----, 50 PERCENT KILLED 50 PERCENT + STRATEGIC HOSPITALIZED AIR COMMAND BASES +-i Scenario for a Limited War Most war-gamers do not believe that a "limited" nuclear war would stav that wav for very long. But even if a Sdviet strike were limited to U.S. intercontinental-bal listic-missile bases. the damage would be staggering. One view of what might happen: Thiny minutes after the Soviet SS-18s roared out of their silos in central Russia, they would begin raining devastation on the six Minuteman-missile bases in Mon tana, North and South Dakota, Wyoming and Missouri and the four Titan-missile bases in Arizona, Arkansas and Kansas. To maximize the destruction, the Soviets would throw two I-megaton warheadseach with 80 times the firepower of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima-against each of the 1,052 U.S. ICBM'sin their silos. One warhead in each pair probably would burst in the air, the other on the ground, spreading extensive fallout. Each surface blast would dig a crater 200 feet deep and 1.000 feet wide. with temperatures at ground zero approaching those on the sun. 'Popcorn': In a 2-mile radius around each crater, the heat and pressure would in cinerateall livingthingsand pulverize most brick, wood and swne buildings. Up to 4 milesaway, anyone who survived the initial blast would receive third-degree burns and exposed objects would burst inw flames. Within a 7-mile radius, the blast pressure would hurl an adult against a wall at two or three times the force of gravity and send debris flying at speeds up to 100 mph. Nine miles away, people outdoors would receive second-degree burns, the heat would ignite dry leaves and windows would explode in a "popcorn" effect. People up to 30 miles away could be partially blinded from a single glance at the fireball, which would rise 8 miles into the air. Since U.S. ICBM bases are located in sparsely populated areas, casualties from the initial blasts would be relatively small. The greater threat would come from ra dioactive fallout, as debris churned up by the blasts became ionized in the mush room cloud and settled back to earth. The fallout would drift in cigar-shaped pat terns downwind from each base, spread ing i,000 rem of radiation (more than twice the median lethal dose) over an area 200 miles wide and 650 miles long for a period of four days (map). Life or death for millions would tum on which way the wind was blowing and at what speed. After an attack on Whiteman Air Force Base in western Missouri. for example, a westerly wind at 20 mph would carry radiation to Indiana; a 60 mph wind-not uncommon in the troposphere. where the particles would travel--could spread fall out to Washington. D.C. Rain would be another deadly variable. since raindrops would collect radioactive particles in the clouds. Deaths would increase after the strike on Whiteman if it were raining in ihe St. LOUIS area (population: 2.4 million) 200 miles awav. In all, fatalities in the first 30 days would range from 2 mil iion to 20 million, depending in part on civil preparedness. the Congressional Office of Tech-_noJogv Assessment has eso mated. Most experts believe that a bolt-from-the-blue nuclear strike is unlikelv, an,: heightened political t~nsion, before the attack might prompt some evacuations. But fallout patterns would be difficult to predict. With only a few hours' warning, most people would scramble to whatever shelter they could find. Not just any basement would do. An effective fallout shelter would require concrete walls 16 inches thick and a filtration system to keep out poisoned air. Each shelter also would need food. water and sanitary facilities to sustain occupants for 30daysthe average period radiation levels would remain danger ously high. Given the current status of shelters, the OT A estimates that 14 million Americans would die."' Manv of the victims would suffer slow, painful deaths from radiation sickness, which starts with nausea, vomiting and diarrhea. Two weeks after exposure, vic tims would experience internal bleeding, ulcerations of the lips and loss of hair: eventually their immune systems would break down, rendering them helpless against disease.Even in the best shelters diseases such as typhoid and cholera could run rampant. Waste disposal would beprimitive; medical care would be marginal, and many bodies would decompose long before they could be buried. Most shelters wp.uld be dark, cold and cut off from out side communications; an erratic electro magnetic pulse from the blast could de stroy radio transmitters. Crowding, panic and uncenainty would heighten the ten sions. Latecomers could spread contami~ nation, and acute psychological shock would be contagious in the close quarters. Millions more people would suffer dis figuring burns and fatal injuries from flying rubble. Hospitals and other emer gency centers would be destroyed in the blast area, and those in the fallout zones the United States retaliated with a similar strike against Soviet ICBM's, Soviet casualties would ran~e from 4 million to 28 million, according 10 OT A estimates, The Soviets reportedly have an ambitious civil-defense program with extensive fallout she!rers. though many U.S. experts doubt ilS cffeclivenc-ss. More condilionc-J than Ameril"JnS lO hardships and shortages, So\"Jet 'c11,zc11s might pro\'e hardier in 1heaftermath. Rur Soviet agricuJture. inadequate even under normaJ cin:umstances, would be deastated, and Soviet.leaders nught t>t pressed to start recovery operations sooner. risking moren~term fatalitie:-.

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probably would be closed. It would be weeks before outside rescue workers could venture safely into the areas. Even then the nation's medical facilities would be sorely overtaxed. There are only 2,000 burn beds in the United States, for example-many of them usually filled. Burn patients re quire extensive surgery and transfusions, and the need for blood would far outrun the supply. The available physicians would set up massive triage systems, allowing many victims to die without treatment. Meanwhile, fires would rage uncontrolled around the blast zones before volunteers could risk contamination to douse them. Insects: Agriculture could suffer stag gering losses, depending on the time of vear. An attack after the fall harvest would not directly affect that year's crops. Some commodities, such as wheat and corn, are unharmed by radiation levels fatal to humans. But fallout particles-such as strontium 90, which can cause leukemiawould settle into the sail. Some experts believe,thatagricultural production would be Jost for at least a vear in the area from southern Canada to Oklahoma and from eastern Wyoming to Ohio-the breadbas ket for the nation. Livestock would be killed or contaminated, and meat would become a luxury. Radioactive isotopessuch as iodine 131, which can cause thy roid cancer-would settle into exposed water systems. Radiation would become more concentrated, and more dangerous. as it passed through the food chain. Low level radiation could cause increased deaths from cancer and genetic diseases for as long as 40 years. The effects on the ecosystem would lin ger even longer. The devastation of many plants and animals might alter the balance of nature. Cockroaches and other insects, which have a high tolerance for radiation, would thrive in much of the fallout area. The multiple blasts also might damage the earth's ozone layer, weakening its protec tion against the sun's ultraviolet rays. As a result, the incidence of skin cancer would probably rise around the world. Most of the industrial, political and financial centers in the United States would remain intact-but the attack still would hobble the nation's economy. Commerce through the fallout areas would be-halted for months. Resources would be severely strained as recovery efforts began, and sur vivors might refuse to work. Thousands might try to flee the surrounding states, overrunning interstate roads. Even in the unaffected states and cities, survivors might lose all trust in authority and the legal and financial systems. There could be runs on banks; martial law might be im posed. As the magnitude of the human loss settled into the nation's consciousness, the psychological impact can only be sur mised. Psychiatrists speculate that the re maining Americans might alternate be tween periods of extreme emotional withdrawal and blind panic-with some people running aimlessly in the streets. Survival: Even with a maximum loss of 20 million lives, the United States would survive. The Soviet Union suffered as many casualties during World War II; Japan's economy has rebounded dramatically since an estimated 200,000 lives were lost at Hiroshima and Nagasaki. But the sudden annihilation of one-tenth of its population and the contamination, even temporary, of one-tenth of its land would rend the fabric of American society. The nation's psycho logical resilience would depend heavily on the circumstances that preceded the warand whether, despite the carnage, Ameri cans believed they had won. MELI:-.;DA BECK with DAVID C. MARTIN in Washington. MARILYN ACHIRON in New York and bureau reports Hiroshima after the blast ( 1945): Staggering strains on sanity and the social fabric Magnum f'\VSWEEKI< >Cf()BER 5. I NATIONAL AFFAIRS known as .. decapitation, an att~mpt to crumble the other side's chain of command and control by attacking the physical loca tion of its political leaders. In most cases this means striking the capital city, with all the attendant civilian deaths. In the case of Washington, whic.;h could be reached in less than ten minutes by missiles launched from submarines offshore, a single I-megaton ex plosion at ground level, centered on the White House, would level most of down town and kill 98 percent of the people in that area-hundreds of thousands on a normal work day, As far away as National Airport, half the people would die from the immedi ate effects of the blast. The death toll from delayed effects like fallout would depend on such factors as wind direction and speed. An attacker might make a single symbolic launch against an industrial center like Detroit (map, page 38): many strategic ana lysts discmmt this pos.sibility, but it is sub stantially the same as the one envis.ioned in the British "Third World War" scenario. More likely, perhaps. is a strike against a vital industry, such as oil refining. The Con gressional Office gf Tetnology l55es,5. ment, m tts studv "The ffi cts of N the Russians were to attac as many refineries as they could reach with a force limited to only ten SS-18 missiles, each carrying eight I-megaton warheads. To maximize the damage to the American economy, the attack would be concentrated in areas con taining many refining operations, and these tend to be in or near large metropolitan areas like Philadelphia and Chicago. The Gulf Coast of Texas and Louisiana is espe cially vulnerable, with one-fourth of U.S. refining captcity located in the few hundred miles between Houston and New Orleans. According to OT A calculations, the single wave of ten missiles would destroy more than 60 percent of the refining industry and cause the deaths of 5 million people. 'Use'emorLose'em':Methodsofdefend ing against limited war create dangers of their own. Counterforce strategy, for exam ple, has called into existence a defense con cept known as .. launch on warning," in which one side, informed by computers that its ICBM fields are under imminent attack, launches the missiles before they are de stroyed in their silos, without waiting for actual proof of impact. use em or lose 'em." is the way the military sometimes describes this policy. But this raises the pos sibilitv of nuclear war bv mistake, which, though remote, can ne;er be completely dismissed. In the early 1970s a spy satellite detected a missile launch from the Soviet Union and predicted it would land in Cali fornia: the Strategic Air Command went into high alert befo-re it discovered that the launch" was onlv a test. In October l Q7S, rh.: satellites sav,_-a suspicious flare in the Soviet Union: this was itlemified as a fire in a narnrai-~as p1peiine. but not before the ana-

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NATIONAL AFFAIRS lysts began to worry. In Novc.:mberof I 979 a NORAD computer transmitted a tape simulatingaSovietattack. whichothercomput c.:rs in the system took to be the real thing: some fighter planes actually scrambled before the alarm was recognized as false. Launch on warning also could become a crucial cog in the mechanics of escalation. a limited war spiraling upward into the Ar mageddon that is the nuclear ages most vivid nightmare. As former Defense Secre tarv Harold Brown testified, even while supporting the flexible options strategy of Presidential Directive 59: "I am not at ali persuaded that what started as a demon stration, or even a tightly controlled use of 1he current Depu1y Linder Secretary of De fense for Strategic and Theater Nuclear Forces. and a leiding advocate of limited war strategy, says th;t the Russians would probably choose military targets, inviting the United States to call off its bombers and missile-carrying submarines before the fi. nal, fatal steps were taken. But that would !eave the Soviet Union relatively unscathed and the United States shorn of its ICBM's and much of its conventional forces, and this could prove psychologically and politi cally intolerable for an American President. At bottom the problem lies, as everyone recognizes, in the large number of uncer tainties: nuclear war is not so much un thinkable as it is unknowable. Nor do the scenarios-"pencil-and-paper wars,'' as DEVASTATiON OVER DETROIT A 1-megaton warhead detonated on the ground would level most downtown build ings and instantly kill at least 220,000 people-and far more if the attack occurred during work.ing hours. ;:;ENA1SSANCE I-MEGATON,. CENTER NUCLEAR BOMB ;;~-:--;;,;, COBC.1 -~.-'~i~"i _-,_ _~, flli! \""'-s lry~ ::;ij COBO HALL ARENA .,~ -~,,.,-., ,,...., j''~ 1,:-,,;,, ~! ,, DETROIT WATERFRONT SEEN FROM THE DETROIT RIVER -.:: whole thing turns out to be a mistake. t;.~ big planes can be called home. On the 01 her hand. if the Soviets were simultaneouslv to fire submarine-based missiles at the 13-52 bases, they would arrive twenty minutes ahead of the ICBM's, giving the President proof positive of the attack and a great enough margin in which to get American missiles aloft. Fratricide?: There might be insurmount able technical difficulties as well. Some strategists believe that Soviet missiles ar, now--or soon will be-accurate enough tn destroy 90 percent of U.S. missiles in their silos, but others are not so sure. Neither side has ever tested its ICBM's in the flight path that would actuallv be used--over the North Pole, where gravitational and mag netic forces and atmospheric conditions could throw mis siles sufficiently off course to render them useless against a "hardened" target like a Min-From .6 miles to 1.3 miles from A Rim of radioactive soil, ground zero, only outside walls Impact Crater--t 2,000-feet.indiameter, is uteman silo. There is, more over, the potential problem of "fratricide" -the explosion of one warhead knocking other warheads off course or even de stroying them. Theoretically. a multiwarhead bombardment would also generate both atmospheric and electromag netic turbulence, with un predictable effects on accura cy. Advocates of counterforce capability scoff at such objec. tions, but the fact remains that no ICBM has even been tested of some strong buildings remain. 1,000 feet wide, 200 feet deep thrown up around crater. i-.---Within .6 miles of ground zero, everything Is totally-destroyed. I in anything like real battle conditions. Still, says Pentagon planner Thomas K. Jones, the" successful space flight of Voyager proves that American ve_ Source: The Congressiona!Office of TechnOlogy A~nt the strategic forces for larger purposes. could be kept from escalating into a fullscale thermonuclear exchange." Oppo nents of the policy are blunter. ''Planning on limited nuclear war is like planning to be a little bit pregnant," says H. Jack Geiger, a member of Physicians for Social Responsi bility, a group protesting the arms race. Electronic Roulette: As the British sci ence writer Nigel Calder has noted, launch on warning--or "launch under attack," as it's also known-is a form of electronic roulette. Not only does it require that a nation place its trust in satellites. radar and computers: it also provides an incentive for the original attacker to launch his second wave of weapons before they are destroyed. If a Soviet counterforce attack were to trig ger a launch of American ICBM's. target;d at remaining Russian missiles. the Kremlin would be st;ongly tempted to get them ou1 of their silos first-to use them or lose them. Bur there would be no American missiles left on the ground to destroy, and probably no operational bombers either. This would leave the Soviets onlv two targets: conven rional military forces.and base;--or civilian >. lb Oh~$S0n-NEWSW'Efl( former CIA director William Colby once called them--offer much guidance. Real wars take place in the world of bad weath er. technical failures and unpredictable personalities. Soviet intentions toward the United States are murky, and to the Sovi ets the reverse is doubtless true as well. The tactical difficulties surrounding a counterforce strike are formidable, and not much is known about getting around them. For an attack to make anv sense at all, the Soviets would have to eliminate both the land-and the air-based legs of the Ameri can nuclear triad,"* but this probably cannot be done. As William Perry, a former Under Secretary of Defense for Re search and Engineering, points out: "It's not possible to work the timing sequence out right." The 30-minute warning the United States would receive in the event of a Russian missile launch provides plenty of time to scramble the bombers, which SAC would certainly do since it entails no risk; if the The triad consists of three legs: land (ICBM"s), air (long-range bombers!. and sea ( missile-launching subma rines). ln an attack on the command center for the trlad. l..cm1rol W(~uld ras~ 10 airhon1~ SAC "Looking G!a-ss~ 707" ~-.-;--,:l, ,.: ;....._ :-.! '.~?,r ... -,.,1 ,,:: .. ,.,. hicles can fly an untested trajectory with high accuracy, and it would be prudent to. expect the same skills from the Russians~ "One might think that Ivan has got some subtle, undetected screw-up in his guidance systems," says Jones, "but I wouldn't want to bet the security of the United States 0n a rather flimsy hope." Enough uncertainties surround the de bate over counterforce strategy to cast < doubt on whether the Russians would ever;'" risk a strike. It might fail for technical rea-~ sons, and even if it succeeded, it would leave. enough of the U.S. nuclear arsenal intact to wreak enormous damage on the Soviet Union. Jimmy Carter once pointedly noted that each Poseidon submarine carri.es.. enough warheads to destroy every medium size city in the Soviet Union-and about half of the 34-vessel ballistic-missile subma rine fleet is at sea at any given time. As the new Trident submarine is phased in. Ameri ca's near-invulnerable sea leg of the nuclear triad will become even stronger. At present. however, missiles launched from under water are onlv accurate enough for use 0n cities. and a~ American President, given the civi!i:rn d, .. .,h,: h,., wnuld cause. might be

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rductant to use them. But the Russians can never be sure. Some strategists maintain that the Rus sians are stoic enough to contemplate a nuclear strike on their cities without blink ing. They recovered from their devastating losses in World War 11---more than 20 mtl lion dead-and they would expect to recover from a nuclear war causing human destruction of the same magnitude. These analysts argue that the Russians are serious ly planning for survival. The Soviet Union spends $2 billion annually for civil defense-compared with $128 million in the U.S. budget for fiscal 1982-and has adopted detailed schemes for sheltering both peo ple and heavy factory equipment. John Hodder-Observer 'The Last Epidemic': This theory tends to overlook the qualitative difference be tween a nuclear war and a protracted con flict like World War II, when it took six years of grim combat, siege and deprivation to kill 20 million. In the nuclear age, the same body count could come in hours. That is a fact of great psychological significance as only the Japanese can fully appreciate. Moreover, the long-range effects of nuclear war would be sinister: it might be a war that goes on long after the warheads have stopped exploding, not only in the form of radiation sickness, increased cancer and genetic defects, but also in che form of suspi cion of others and hostility toward authority. Because radioactive fallout in some ways resembles a man-made plague-"the last epidemic,,. says Howard H. Hiatt, dean of the Harvard School of Public Health-it might unravel the bonds of community. Anti-nuclear protest in England: /Joes preparing.for litnited war ,riake it more likely? It is possible that Soviet and American nuclear strategies are and always have been based on fundamentally different premises. The West, putting its faith m mutual deterrence. assumed the East had done the same. Regarding nuclear war 1s not winnable in any meaningful sense. American!> supposed the Russians ,hared that view In fact. :laim~ t. >llf1 (.ra, ,f JSf ,r :1111~11i1 it f11side the Looking Glass 411 airhome r.omma11d post fnr 4merica \ 11udear triad rlerman Ko"o1an-.a1ack ::itar political goals when the opportunity might arise. Nuclear weapons could be used under a variety of circumstances, in a wide range ,if places. That was the principal reason. the theory went, why the Russians have put years of etfort and billions of rubles into a diversified missile arsenal with multiple warheads and ;tate-of-the-art missile guid ance systems They don't (hink of nuclear war as a wo-shot affair. .. -;ays Jones at the Pentagon. They look at it like a chess game, m which low-level nuclear ex -:hanges might go on for a considerable penod Jf ume. Catch-22: As a consequence. Pentagon strategists decided to acquire much the ,ame kmd~i.)fflexibilitj 1argely through the de\elopment .)f the ,;ruise and the highly .1ccurate M X missile rhat Reagan 1s expect ed to '1eploy fhough intended by the Unit :d 'ltates tc bt' a jeterr,~m. this system will :,e practt..:all} mdistingu1shable from one w1th a first .. ,trike capability-at least when ,1ew~d fmm 1'v1oscow fhis is rhe Carch-22 it he agt" ,t ,rnss1k accurac} \\hat .me side ,ntends a~:\ Jeterrent. rhe other side regards 1s an itfensive weapon. Cntics argue that it 1s ar inherent!\ unstable situation. and a ,Jangernus 1ne oan1r.:ularly m rhe absen('e ll SA!. 1 ncgnt1ar1ons \,\ i11~n .ill he ,cenarios are played out ro he h1trl'r .:nd hev ,eem ;omehow implau.,1hle ,: .~ 1101 wnl11n che human imagination 1c :i1mpas~ ,n mur.:h death. But ,hen. wars have ,fr,~n ,;tared for ;mplausihle reasons: "h<; ,v
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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE Chemical & Engineerin~ Me~s Noy .. 30, 1981 i~ ~Jngre~5 Cjilil~' ,~fJ!~ 1 s,:s~n~i'l', whiyh usu.all.\ Dends. o.ver ;rncKwards to t)e non.1ue1gmental. 11a;.; liia,-ted the Environmentnl Protection Agency"s efforts to date to implement superfund, particularly its efforts to rank the hazards posed b> individual abandoned and uncontrolled hazardous waste sites (C&EN, Nm. :L page 6!. In testimony prepared at the reque:-t of the House Commerce Subcommittee on Oversight & Investigation. which is looking into what EPA ha,-cione so far. OTA savs that EPA r1as begun to implement: a policy for sunerfund t and mav devise a similar one for regulation's under the Re :-ource Conservation & Recovery Act) that: Provides little assurance of pro tection for public health and the en\ironment from hazardous wastes :,;ites in situations where there is a low population density close to the sites. Does not correlate verv well the protection for the public with the level of hazard from waste sites near high-population-density areas. The level of hazard actually varies greatly because of differences in waste char acteristics, such as toxicity, pathways for release, and movement of waste constituents. Does not adequately account for the potential high hazard posed by relatively small, up to 20 tons, but highiy toxic wastes even in high pop ulation densitv areas. OTA contends that an improved approach to ranking sites would not necessarily require much more data and could lead to obtaining greater protection, with the limited funds available and without substantial delay, for more people who are at greater risk. In fact, OTA says, marked improvement could result just from a separate assessment of the hauu-d for sites and estimation of the total population at risk and level and type ofrisk posed by sites. One way to accomplish this would be for EPA to design and implement a degree-of-hazard classification sys tem that could identify with greater certaintv those wastes that most se verely threaten human health and environment and to use management technologies that reflect the differ ence in potential hazards. ASTE SITE .BANKlffG BLASTED Work still needs to be done, but degree-of-hazard classification system would produce benefits Work to be done Monitoring priorities Information on waste Liability classes Types generated Expedient permitting Effects on public health and lnduS!ry environment Priorities/goals for waste reduction Management options Cost-effective management options Technologies (existing and future) Development of more technology Sites (criteria and availability) options Classification criteria States Scientific justification Accurate assessment of landfill Standardized tests needs Hazard/risk assessment Policy analysis Opportunities within existing reg ulatory structure for adoption Analysis of costs and benefits Establish needs for institutional support Reconcile federal and state needs and programs Possible benefits Regulatory requirements Waste/facility/siting standards Source: Office of Technology Assessment OTA currently is doing an assessment of nonnuclear industrial waste scheduled for completion next year. But at the request of the subcommittee it presented along with its testi monv a technical memorandum on the potential use of hazard classification in regulating nonnuclear industrial wastes. According to the memorandum, an effective degree-ofhazard classification system would \ need to incorporate a number of I technical criteria such as estimates of potential genetic impairments, measures of acute and chronic toxic ity, degree of persistence and hioac cumulation, and estimates of poten tial concentrations in waste. Other factom that would have, to be considered in determining the threat I posed by a hazardous waste site in clude distance to nearest population and drinking wells, distance to nearest surface water, amount of precipi tation, and soil permeability. A number of degree-of-hazard classisfication systems have been de veloped to date incorporating some or all of these factors. but OTA has found none of them to be completely Scientific basis tor different types of facilities Better information for local govern ments and public Uniformity with other states Financial sector Limits to liability, appropriate rates Reduced uncertainty for capital investment Public Greater protection of health and environment Better information Reduced economic costs and risks satisfactory. A lot of work still needs to be done, but it says that its analysis finds that a well-designed degree of-hazard identification system might provide a strategy for cost-effective management of nonnudear industrial hazardous wastes. o .. ;;_-

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE Houston Chronicle November 20, 1981 Waste classific'ation said feasible : OTC warns grading system no panacea for industrial hazard_s )W WILLIAM.E. CLAYTON JR. decision on whether or not to use a degree-of-hazard Chronicle Washington Bureau classification system for implementing the mandates of ;, RCRA. Moreover, such a s~m shoufd not be regarded :WASHINGTON -Grading the hazards from indus-as a panacea for the national problem posed by industritiys wastes on the order of their severity is a .feasible al hazardous waste." method but no panacea, the 2Jfice of Iechnol?& As; One benefit of such a classification system is that mB!ltsays. regulators can concentrate on the worst wastes, the !1fiieofA is an arm of Congress. It issued a report CYfA said. Another is that money spent on controls can 'l)ursday saying the Environmental Protection Agency be spent more efficiently, and priorities can be set for decided, when the main waste management law was handling, disposing or recycling wastes._ passed in 1976, not to classify wastes beyond merely, Draw6acks include costs of developing such a system, 'hazardous" and "non-hazardous." the relative paucity of information available, and ,:"Non-nuclear industrial waste ranges from being whether states can come up with consistency in their l'fi!latively harmless to being so extremely hazardous. classification systems. tflat it must be completely isolated from humans and Another law called the "superfund" law covers inac-the environmerit, destroyed or detoxified," the OTA tive, or abandoned, hazardous waste sites. In the pre~port says. .. liminary work it has done to identify the worst sites in :For that reason and others, it says, "A well-deslgned the nation, including four in Texas, the EPA has applied degree-0f-hazard classification system could provide a at least one fonn of classification. This prooess will lead ~rategy for cost-effective management'' of such to decisions on how to spemrthe superfund to clean up\. wastes. hazardous waste sites abandoned by previous O~.,;_t .. : Texas has one form of such a classification system, i'.> ~OTAnoted. But it said the Texas approach has some drawbacks: i_ It does not include some characteristics of potentJclllY harmful waste, such as genetic harm or persisteJtce. It does not consider the dose level at the source of ~re to the wastes, when, "It is the concentration at the+time of exposure that has the greatest influence on tfie&everity of any adverse effect." r It does not list hazards comprehensively enough to ~" all potential non-nuclear industtjal hazardous 1a~es. .-The federal law that covers "active" sites that create sprd.e hazardous wastes is the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (ltCRA). The QTA says, "The Jhl;ent slate of knowredge does not lead to,an easy .i;J .>:",~~lc;; ,.1:.",:1.:;:,,,~.n:~ ; .; ... ,,'*~~,;,:,~-., ',, :"--

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE The Washington Post Thursday, Nov. 19, 1981 EPA's Cutbacks Ar~-Overstated,. Gorsuch Says By-Joanne Omang Waahlngton Post Staff Writer The Environmental Protection Agency's budget and personnel cuts for 1982 are not nearly as large as widely reported, EPA administrator Anne M. Gorsuch said yesterday to congressional critics worried that the agency may not be able to do its job. The budget has been cut only 16 percent rather than 25 percent and -personnel will be reduced by only 2 percent, nQt 10 percent, she said. The higher figures are "paper world" calculations rather than "real world" numbers, Gorsuch told the House E!)lergy oversight subcommittee. Chairmah John D. rnngeli (D. Mich.) said EPA may have trouble no matter now the cuts are calculated, and will have to rely more on outside contractors. "Both effects are unacceptable," he said. Gorsuch; under ~ntinuing fire in Congress for her reductions, responded that increasing state authority for sQme programs .will ease the burden in Washington. Charges of hoge cuts from former president. Carter's budget and personnel levels Ignored the fact that Carter's proposals were never realized, she added. "Such rumors are not even arithmetically correct," she said. In testimony submitted for the record, the Office 2L'.~bg~ ses!~nt,1 an arm of ~ngress; said 'me computer models EPA uses to grade the danger at a toxic waste dump rely too heavily on population density in the area and not heavily enough on the risk to individuals of highly toxic materials.

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE wl1r ,8,nlt i!Jait:e (iJ'rtbuur SALT LAl
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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE Oil Daily November 10, 1981 By S. Lawrence Paulson of the plant Oil Daily Staff Writer But t}J.e success of such a plan, WASHINGTON The costs of Row berg said, will depend on combuilding a plant to convert Alaskan petition with methanol derived natural gas to methanol are compa~ from coal, and it does not appear rable to current estimates for the that Alaskan methanol will be less cost of the Alaskan gas pipelin syscostly than the coal-derived tern, an official_ of the QffiGe of, alternative. ~fflmf~S.4~.s:,pme~t said Since marketability will ultiRichard Rowberg, manager of mately determine whether an OTA's energy program, told a joint Alaskan methanol concept would hearing of the House Fossil and succeed ....;. as indeed it would for Synthetic Fuels and Energy and Alaskan natural gas itself the fuEnvironment Subcommittee that it ture of synthetic methanol from could cost $23 billion to $32 billion coal will have strong effect on the to build /a methanol facility on the ultimate financial success of any North Slope. Alaskan methanol project," Row:: '. .But Rowbefg 'said '.converting : .~erg said. ,; Alaskan gas t,o methanol oJfers: .:Another witness, George Dorsome 'lapparent advantages". over. ineus, senior planning coordinator the proposal to build the gas pipe-for Atlantic Richfield Co., said his line. "First of all, it.can be donefrt company studied the methanol crementally," he said. "Although alternative but concluded that the we have calculated costs .for the cheapest way to move"Prudhoe Bay entire system, it is not necessary, of gas to U.S. markets is by the prop course, to. build the entire facility osed gas pipeline. at once. Such an approach would best fit in with developing metha-Doremus attributed this to the nol fuel markets. "fundamental inefficiency of the .. . (methanol) conversion process, Seco~d,_ 1t ~an use the ~xisting which in effect defivers 35 percent crude 011 p1p~lme,,system with only less energy per unit of feed." Also, modest additions, Rowberg noted: he said, the preliminary nature of Other Factors its methanol analysis plus the In adtlition, he said, "favorable physical problems of building the developments in construction tech-conversion facility "would delay niques for chemical plants on the the completion date of the metha Alaskan North Slope, such as sue-nol system beyond the projected cessful delivery of barge-mounted 1986-87 gas pipeline system startup assemblies. ('ould lower the costs .by four or more years."

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE AMERICAN JOURNAL OF HOSPITAL PHARMACY WASHINB o.c. IIONJHLY NOV 19s1 F OTA Relea1res Report on Patent-Term Extension for Pharmaceuticals Additional incentives for pharmaceutical research and de velopment would be provided by patent-term extension for drugs, but it is not certain that those incentives alone would appreciably increase pharmaceutical innovation. That was the conclusion reached by the Congressional Offi@ of Tech;g2jogv Assessment (OTA) in a study of the effects of patent-termex tension for products subject to federal regulations before mar keting (e.g., drugs, medical devices). OTA conducted the study for the House Judiciary Subcom mittee on Courts, Civil Liberties, and the Administration of Justice, which is considering a bill that would extend the life of patents for these products by the amount of time (up to seven years) that the federal government takes to approve marketing .. The bill, introduced in the Senate by Charles McC. Mathias (R-MD) and in the House by Robert W. Kastenmeier (D-WI), has passed the Senate and was being considered by the House at press time. The OTA researchers found that pharmaceutical-industry profits have remained high, revenues have increased steadily, and that research arid development expenditures have increased rapidly enough to offset inflation in biomedical costs. This contradicts claims by pharmaceutical manufacturers that re search has become less profitable because of shorter patent terms, government encouragement of generic drugs, and higher research costs. OT A did state that the full effects of government regulation in these areas may not be apparent yet. Other points OT A made in its report were: Patent-term extension would increase the attractiveness of research on drugs for large markets but not for small markets. Increases in ~esearch activities would probably not begin until the 1990s when patent-term extension would first generate substantial additional revenues, of which 8-9% would be spent on research and development. Drug prices would be higher during the extension period than they would have been without the extension, and el derly and chronically ill patients would be affected more than others. Patent-term extension would prevent marketing of generic drugs in some cases. This would occur when the extension reduced the market value of the drug remaining after the patent had expired to a level too low to justify mar keting. ::.....-

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE 'WELLSVILLE, N.Y. DAILY REPORTER DAILY OCT 51981 j-H .---==. -E ---A L T H & ;L 1?.Y' By The International Medical Tribune Syndicate Patents extended ,100 million per yea~. The .critics say that the measure ,will limit competiWASHINGTON (IMTS) An. tionandraisedrugprices. unreleased government report says The OTA report -a complete copy that a patent extension proposal of which was obtained by IMTS -is unanimously passed by the Senate an attempt to explore the bill's will have unpredictable results if.sign-"impllcations," project officer Nor-ed into law. man Balmer said in an interview: The report by the congressiona~ But it cannC>t "predict" whether the Je, 9f_Iechno~~looks extended patent life on drugs will at a 1iiif recent&lntrodiiceamfo the boost new drug research and developSenate by Sen. Charles Mee. Mathias ment,. and in many places simply ,, (R.-Md.). The bill will extend patents restates conflicting views of those for on certain products to compensate for and against the measure. time lost during prolonged federal It confirms that Food and Drug Adtesting. ministration testing of proposed new Paten!S anrgranted for 17 years, up drugs takes up to seven years, leaving to seven of which may be swallowed about 10 years of patent.life to protect up during federal premarket testing. the product from rnanufac~rs .of Drup and medical devices would look-alike, or generic, drugs. primarily be affected by the bill, That -is 3;..7 years less than which its sponsors say will generate developers of other types of "signifi revenue that will spur lagging cant innovations" can expect, the research into potential medical report states. breakthroughs. "That in itself is good reason to pass Drug companies are pushhlg for the the bill," says a Mathias aide who bill's passage because it will give asked not to. be identified. "We are them needed time to recoup money giving the inventor back the full 17 spent on research and development of year patent life that 100 years ago new drugs, particularly costly losses Congress said he is entitled to.'' on drugs that never win FDA ap-He added that the oTA report "is a proval. balanced report, a fair report that ex-. Critics of the measure charge that plains the nature of the problem. In i_the bill would extend a virtual the long run, it will.help tbe bill'f monopoly of select companies over chances of passage by underscoring one of the most pro. fitable sectors of that 8 years of patent. life is lost on a/ American businessin which it is not new drug and 3 years on a new 11DCOJJUD(!D to have sales higher than device." ,.,.., ,.,1,-' : :. -,c<;.o:,,;: .. :~ ..

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH ST. LOUIS, MO. D. 252.,193 s. 433,817 SEP 191981 f Fair Patent Life For Drug~ The House conilal @l::L begin some types of drugs those aimed at a large hearings on a bill to extend the patent life of market. Prices for new drugs may be higher pharmaceutical products should find useful a under the extended patent term, but recently released study by the Bfficf of competition is still likely to have a l);GbpoJggx MIIIIWmh Patent aws are moderating effect as the patent does not bar designed to protect innovators from marketing variations of the new drug. And it competition for 17 years. Because it takes is possible that more and better drugs may time for tests to ensure safety and efficacy, be developed if the patent term were the effective patent life for drugs is often protected from dilution by the necessary much shorter than 17 years. Hence bills are FDA review. being considered in Congress to exclude up to The number of n~w. drugs introduced seven years of the Food and Drug annually in the U.S. has been declining over Administration's approval period from the the last 20 years, and the length of time patent life. required for FDA approval has increased. The OTA analysis presents pluses and The Patent Term Restoration Act could lead minuses for the proposal. Drug industry to more medical breakthroughs because of profits have remained high and research and incentives for research and development. It development expenditures have not de.dined also would grant drug companies nearly the despite the short effective patent terms. But, same patent protection other types of the OTA notes that patent extension would companies receive. Hence, the bill deserves make increased research more likely on favorable consideration. I This editorial also appeared in the Warrensburg (MO) Star-Journal. -

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE HY ANNIS, MASS. CAPE COD TIMES D. 37,416 SUN. 42,982 SEP251981 Scattered research E (o;tq 1 \J Considering the amount T of federal money being poured into ocean research, it's remarkable that as yet there is no comprehen sive effort to plan and coordinate these programs. Last year, the government spent $2.5 billion on a variety of oceanic research pro jects, the results of which are scattered among eight agencies. Earner this month, the congressional fice of Technolo Asses;fflent (OT A). prepared a report showing e 1vers1 y o se 'lffl)gra s:.;_; some~~o in all which appear to be suffering from the lack of a method of collating information once it has been collected. The research ranges from the oceans' effects on weather and climate to deep-sea mining of minerals. Despite this intensive effort, however, the report notes that American ocean-engineering capabilities are inadequate and that the development of important areas of marine technology is being ignored by. several key federal agencies. In light of the enormous potential of the world's oceans as a food and mineral resource, this lack of coordinated research seems to be something that needs congressional attention. Yet, notes the OTA study, proposals Jor a central ocean technology organization so far have received little support in Washington. Oceanographic programs require long-range planning, considerable funding and the coordinated efforts of a number of organizations whose functions and research sometimes overlap. This could be accomplished by the creation of a central research agency, as OT A suggests. A vast amount of knowledge about the oceans has been collected at public expense. But unless this information can be organized in such a way that it is readily available to the priv~te sector, its usefulness is severely limited.

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The Cousteau Society IMPRESSIONS IS OCEAN SCIENCE SINKING? .\mong the topics discussed when Captain Cousteau met, with President Reagan at a private White House lunch la~tJune was the future role of the United States as a leader in oceanic research ac tivities. Since Benjamin Franklin published his map of the GulfStn.:am and '.\lat thew Fontaine \laurv of the L: .S. :\'an, establish~d the re lationship.betvveen currents and oceanic weather. the C.S. has been one of the dominant forces in marine science. Cnfortunatelv, however. oceanography i; an expen sive science to pursue. The ornithologist can learn a great deal using only a pair of binoculars. but the oceano~apher or marine biologist often needs a cost!v vessel just to reach thF site of his inouirv and expensive equipmen and instmmentation to pene trate the opaque surface of the sea and retrieve clues about animal behavior or the geology of the sea floor miles below. Even laboratorv work can be expensive. since cer tain investigations may require the simulation of condi tions in a habitat that features extreme pressure or temperatures or other nonterrestrial circumstances. In a time when budget cutting consistently leads the evening news stories, we fear that U.S. marine science could suffer setbacks just when there should be acceler ation of programs to study energy from the sea, fisheries management, aquaculture, marine pollution, and many other topics. Thus we read with great interest a report just published bv the L' .S. Oflice of Technology Assessn;!~!;1,t that analvzes U.S. Federal tech nologies for ocean research and monitoring. Here are a few of OT A's findings: The C.S. Federal research and survev fleet is facing a shortage,ofship operating funds. The National Science Foundation may be forced to layup ships now in the academic fleet. Ships are not being ade quately maintained, espec ially those in the deepwater academic fleets. Over the next 20 years, the Federal fleet of about 80 ships will require replacement or major rehabilitation. The replacement cost for these ships is about $1.5 billion in 1980 dollars. The two largest fleet groups are the :'\OAA fleet and the academic fleet, which is op erated bv ,arious oceanographic [nstitutions. The 7\iOAA fleet is generally older and may require earlier attention. Toda, onh one manned. deep-ciking. submersible, the Afrin (\\'o()cls Hole), is federally supported for nonrnilitan' research. though these Yessels are in-~ valuable for carrying scientists to the deep ocean. The report points out that there are no dedicated oceanographic satellites in nrbir wday that prO\ide coverage of the \\orlds oceans with modern sensors. The .\'1mbus series that nn)\ides coastal zone d;,r,i is being phast:d out. If the new ~oss program is supported, onlv part of the Nimbus and Sea.sat capabilities will be reinstated. There are positive points, LOO, such as the future pro mise of increasing sophistication of microelectronic technology in instrument systems. But generally the OT A findings suggest the need for S'>mt liolslcring of the U.-S. o,Tan research enterprise, ilrhe(of'rt-n monctarilv rewardi11g) unraveling o'r lflt' S(';J\ lm'Stl'r ies is to pronTd. The findings also suggest the importarHT of IH m-Fcd eral oceanographic institutions, which an indqll'ndent of both polirics and thl' need to seek "practit al" IT wards for induslr\' in :uw explorations. Th,;t can r~strict the stud\' ofs11d1 "itn practic'al" qul'~I ions as I h<' sea's health or I ht' I wha\ior of noncomnHJTial a11i111al species. Onl' such imt ttu.tion is Tlw Co11stcau So11wrsi bles, and. of course. l'xpn ienced divers and t'n-". T,'> us, the OTA ITJH>rt nwans that our work is likd\' 1" become l'\'l'n IIH>n iinport ant in the fururc ..\11d dw rt"nort ;~h.;n nn1i1Hl~ ,,.._ h,,"'" i~portant is di!' supp"rt from the llll'llllltTs of The Cousteau Socict \'. whc is, interest and co1H,,-r11 :rnd donations keep ali,T I lw operation that lirst dc-s cended with i11s1n111w111s and cameras int" tilt' s,a, to u~derstand ir. t(l !iring its beautv b,tck IP all of l;umanity, ~nd now. l(l pro tect it.

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE Technology Review Nov.-Dec. 1981 Cutting Technology Down to Size An Assessment of Technology for Local Development U.S. Congress, Office of Technology As sessment, 1981 '!lli~s!"'" Reviewed by Judith Wagner Because technology pervades our lives throughlanguage, conceptual forms, com munications, health care, transportation, and many other daily encounters, it has become inextricably woven into the fabric of our society. Technology is expected to produce solutions to all major problems, even those generated by other technologies. It is traditionally considered the mill wheel of the entire economy, a vital organ in the national economic body. But since the 1950s, when some noted scientists began actively opposing the stockpiling of nuclear weapons, another view of technology has been advancing. The superiority of technology in its com mon large-scale, mechanized, and energy consuming manifestations has been chal lenged, particularly by environmentalists, who argue that much of today's technology is doing irreparable damage to natural systems. The energy crisis provided new impe tus for these debates: over the past ten years the arguments for controlling tech nologies and reshaping the modes, appe tites, and even the purposes of technologies have sharpened. Inherent in these argu ments are many assumptions about the need for smaller-scale life-support systems, more direct control of technology by peo ple for their immediate needs, decentraliza tion of basic economic and service systems, and a reordering of priorities for the entire society. Throw in the foreign-policy issues related to energy, and the discussion becomes even more complex. Less Is More In the early 1970s, E.F. Schumacher, a maverick British economist, proposed the value of what he first called "intermediate" and later "appropriate technology." In Small Is Beautiful he cites appropriate technology as a guiding principle for the solution of the economic problems of poor countries. The concept is attractive, for it suggests ways to improve local economies through a compromise between outmoded indigenous practices and sudden full-scale November/ December 1981 conversion to a capital-intensive, industrial economy. The concept offers respect for local societies along with strategies for improving basic econo!Jlic conditions. However, Schumacher's followers quickly transferred these ideas to conditions at home and began asking whether the idea of tailoring technology to each situation could help counteract the disturbing trends of more industrialized countries. It is this broader interpretation of suit able technology and a more literal use of the ,word "appropriate" that hold great potential for even highly technical econo mies. The question becomes "What is appropriate to the task at hand?" The answer is to design systems that meet spe cific needs without relying on large-scale, centralized systems (such as electrical gen erating facilities) that, while they might eventually do the job, often waste consider able resources or produce many undesira ble side effects. We should stop, as Amory Lovins has put it, cutting our butter with a chain saw. The concept of appropriate technology has become so familiar that the congressional Office of Technology Assessment recentcy published a report entitled An As: sessinent of Technology /or Local Devef oemeni. Appropriate technology is defined as that which "involves an attempt to tailor the scale and complexity of a technology to the job that needs to be done on the basis of human values as well as purely economic values; it tries to be sensitive to the needs, desires, and resources of the people who will use the technology." Such technolo gies, the report explains, ideally emphasize "resource efficiency, environmental soundness, community control, and labor rather than capital intensiveness." The report goes into considerable detail about more ambitious goals for appropriate technology such as answering the complex problems of economic growth, promoting national and domestic equity, and balancing government regulation and citizen participation. It also provides case studies of "promising new technologies ... that may provide an alter native and possibly more effective ap proach to community regional develop ment." More Than Nuts and Bolts The report offerS-a very satisfying summa ry and sample of the more interesting attempts to design alternative methods for fulfilling many community needs. Even for those familiar with standard designs for things such as superinsulated structures, bio-gas digestor sytems, or small-scale hy droelectric systems, this collection offers enough statistical tidbits, sketches and pho tographs, and technical information on per formance to be a valuable resource. To gether the case studies (necessarily a bit superficial individually) offer a useful look at the variety of problems-both technical and otherwise-thatpeople confront in im plementing alternative systems. Appropriately, the report also spenas considerable time on the social and com munity influences on each project. As many advocate~ of appropriate technology have pointed out, the choices are not only among specific technologies but also (and possibly more importantly) among social and political structures. However, several features of the study are puzzling and, ultimately, disappointing. The introduction suggests that the report will critique each experiment on the basis of a rather elaborate set of goals for solving social, economic, and political problems. But a number of the projects, while differ ent from conventional systems, do not offer any demonstrated advantage, particularly in terms of political and social criteria. The report's conclusions and recommen dations seem to stop short of promising sig nificant changes in technological applica tions. One of the most frequent recommen dations is that there is no need for new federal programs or agencies to support appropriate technology, yet this ne,::d is obvious to anyone who has had experience with existing programs-such as the Na tional Center for Appropriate Technology and the Department of Agriculture's Coop erative Extension Service. These programs Technology Review 13

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are certainly in need of an overhaul or replacement if appropriate technologies are to significantly affect local communities. Short-lived projects and badly managed demonstration programs do not explore the full potential of the technologies being tested. [n its announcement of this report the Office of Technology Assessment states that if widely duplicated, projects such as those described could "play a significant role in meeting pressing national needs." However, the question. remains whether such projects will simply become "accepted" technology or whether they will be applied to promote some of the fundamen tal societal changes necessary for local con trol of human development. D Judith Wagner, a graduate of M.I. T. 's Urban Studies Program, is former codirector of Boston Urban Gardeners. Inc. ,;

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE Bioscience September 1981 OTA Assessment: Cancer Risks From The Environment The U.S. Office of Technology Assess ment estimates that 60% to 90% of all cfncer is associated with the environ ment and therefore is theoretically pre ventable. The "environment" by defini tion, includes all influences except inborn genetic factors. In its recent re port: Assessment of Technologies (oI 12.&fermininR Cancer Risks from th.e Environment, OTA identifies cigarette smoking as the cause of more cancer than any other known environmental agent. Occupational exposure to asbes tos and some chemicals, certain drugs, alcohol consumption, and exposure to radiation were found to cause significant but smaller proportions of all cancers. Cancer strikes one out of four Ameri cans, kills one out of five, and claimed 400,000 lives in the United States in 1979. Anatomic cancer sites that lead the mortality figures are: Lung, trachea and bronchus-24%; Colon-11.1 %, Breast-8.7%; Prostate-5.5%; and Pancreas-5.2%. Summaries of the report are available free of charge from the Office of Tech nology Assessment, U.S. Congress, Washington, DC 20510; phone 202/224-8996. Copies of the full 240-page report can be purchased at $6.50 from the Su perintendent of Documents, U.S. Gov ernment Printing Office, Washington, DC, 20402. GPO Stocknumber: 052-003-/ 00832-1. l _,,,----~

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE OTA Study .,/ A study by the Congressional~ ofTechn~ssess~ tt tirrfflt:i'f'fus ffln~ ngress wish The OT A paper points out that tech nologies other than dredging that facilitate coal exports will probably be ap proached with caution by established industries because they are not per-"Sizeable increases in US coal exports are achievable if government and the private sector cooperate." to promote US coal exports, it is imceived as near-term options. The most portant to reaffirm US commitments important ot twaltemative technolto increase domestic coal production, ogies are c~al slurry pipelines, mid improve the coal transportation netstream transfer of barges or ships, work, and encourage export trade." barge-carrying ships, pneumatic pipeThe resulting political climate would lines, and shallow-draft, wide-beam reassure importing nations as they asships. sess US reliability as a future coal While the Federal Government does trade partner. not appear to have a major role in de-Excerpted from an article in the American Import Export Bulletin (September 1981) entitled "Export Coal Prospectus: Washington's Role --The Capitol Connection," veloping or promoting coal export technologies other than dredging, the OTA paper says federal action with re gard to dredging could affect the pri vate sector. The OT A analysis indicates that "sizable increases in future US coal ex ports are achievable if the federal government and the private sector cooperate in encouraging these ex ports, and if developments in other countries do not dramatically alter present trends." OTA's study warns, however, that "without a coherent, positive policy, the United States risks losing a large share of the market to other coal-producing nations. Coal Export Financing The policy on coal export financing includes private sector financing, in vestment assistance services, and for eign equity investment. Private interests in the coal, energy, railroad, banking and other fields are expected to provide funding for coal production, transportation, and port facility improvements. Such invest ment will be to the industry's advantage and will be facilitated by various aspects of the coal export policy. Foreign coal buyers have indicated some willingness to participate finan cially in developing and exporting America's coal. This will benefit both parties, allowing buyers security against economic fluctuations while freeing American capital for other purposes. Following traditional American policy, this Administration welcomes such foreign participation, consistent with state and federal law. Consistent with state and federal laws, the Cqmmerce Department will facilitate foreign investment and joint ventures in the development of US coal mining, processing, transportation, and port facility improvement. In addition, the policy states that the United States intends to maintain a solid international reputation as a reliable supplier of coal. Contracts are enforceable in American courts, and the US government has never restricted coal exports, even during strikes that have reduced domestic supplies .. The Administration will not interrupt coal trade under contractual commitments unless forced to do so by a severe national emergency. In sum, the outlook for the Ameri can exporter of coal is very good. Con1 gress and the federal government are working to solve problems. Foreign countries want American coal as long as it is competitive in price-they like its quality. However, there are con siderable barriers to maximum coal "exportability" which need to ~e over come, This will take time. ;,l 0

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The Washington Post (P. D9) Friday, Oct. 16, 1981 The Reprogrammable, .Multifunctional,' Man' By Thomas W. Lippman Wllhln&tOD POl$8lltt wrtter YONKERS, N.Y.-In a spotless, high-ceilinged white room that loob more like a laborat.ory than a facto: ry, 10 mechanics and techniclans from General Electric Co. and the Pratt & Whitney Aircraft Group of United Technologies Corp. are learn ing how t.o use the new t.oo1s of their trade. Thick technical manuaJs are piled_ on tables. Pieces of disassembled machinea clutter the floor. On a table in the comer, an armlike steel projection, painted bright orange,. moves, st.ops, climbs, descends and turns over in response t.o commands programmed int.o a cassette tape. -We're not just some guys off the, street,. We're trained technicians, but there is still a lot t.o learn," says Nicholas Toretta, a master mechanic; at Pratt and Whitney. "That thing moves at incredible speed, and it's relentla." The "thing" is industrial robot, ,: a t.ool 88 far removed from wrench and blowtorch 88 the computer is. : from the adding machine. Toretta and his colleagues, whose employers have ordered robot.a for their production lines, are learning how t.o operat.e, program and maintaining a major supplier of robot.a t.o the U.S. market. '"Operating a robot is like driving a car," says Joseph Bianco, training director at ASEA's facility here. "It's easy t.o talk about it, but once you put a penon in there, it's different." -We have no prereqwsites," Bianco said. "The student.a in this coUl&e could be degreed engineers or working technicians." But the stu dent.a say the work is difficult be_ cause it requires. an adjustment of their entire concept of the werk. place-"complete retraining," one said. It's not just the technical adjust.:-. ment t.o metric measurement.a, European symbols in the manual$ and t.ools that measure force1in Newtons ~tead of foot-pounds that compli utes the training. It's tlie need t.o understand the complexities of the -t.ool it.self, it.a potential functions in the manufacturing process,_ and the relationship of the robot.a t.o the human beings in the factory. In two weeb the student.a learn everything from basic functions of the robot, such 88 picking up and putting down objec,t.s, the machine's inner workings so they can take it apart and put it back togeth-er, according t.o Bianco.: them. The training is provided by .. ASEA Inc., the U.S. arm of the Swe dish industrial giant that is becom-"Robot.a are new t.o industry;" says .. ASEA President Ame Mark. "It is See ROB~TS, D10, Col. S \ --

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It ~nds, Drills, Dips, Imcards and Deburrs .. ROBOTS, From D9 essential .that people know what they can do with them and what they can expect. They have to be as familiar with these animals as possible.",. The reference to "animals~ is ; Mark's little joke. The kind or robot he is talking about is qot an unit.ation human, an R2l)2, "but a sophis ticated tool that is rapidly becoming a prominent feature of the industrial work place. The training ,program here, in which almost aJ1 of ASEA's customers J>artjcipate, is part of ASEA's efforts ro increase its share of a growing market. In tot.al salesASEA is a small force in th,e $150-million-a-~ u.a market tor industrial robots, far behind the Ununation aivision of .Condee and Cincinnati' M"JJacron, which 'between them have 70 percent oftlie ~ mar~ But Mark said ASEA's ro bots are "the most sophisticated and the most expensive," arid ASEA aims to challenge the leadem when a new factory opens near Milwaukee next 1 year and it no longer needs to -.im .. port its robots from Sweden. "There. is an exciting-future for robot.a here< in the U.S.," Mark said. -., The, kind of training that the technicians and en~rs from the automobile, electronic, appliance iuid engine factories undergo in programs ;~ "' such as ASEA's is as much a part'of ;the ch,..nge in the iJfdustrial. ,work, :.;,-place u the introduction of the ma' '.chines ~mselves. 1 .. The ropots do tedious, ixmng,; _gdangeroua and exhausting jobs that .~ ~/ once were performed :by huinari ne:...;: ings of the blue..collar1'1Jld lunch.pail .. worlt ;fbrce. In the words of ]~engt .J ..,,, .Johanssen, an instructor here, %--" -bots don't displace .~rkers; theyrequire them to do different kinds;e>f;:,'. jobs.,, / ~_~. :j-, ~J ;~---J~ An industrial robofis not a; ,toy~ As defined by the Robot Institute of America, it is "a repl'Qg181Dm&ble, multifunctional manipulator de. signed to move material, parts, to<>ls or specialized devices "through Vari able motions for the performance of :i a variety of tasks." Depending on th(_, kind of tool or bit that ls att.ached to' the robot's operating "wrist," the ma. chine can paint, grinq, polish, lift, insert, cut, drill, weld, dip pieces into li "d 1 discard d k .. qw se a,p __ ~t!l~ -~ ~.:. -~ Equipped with laser beams Or0 television cameras, the most ad~ vanced models can "see" or "feel" t.o ; perform specialized tasks such as smoo~ the inslde of forged parts o! select~ IDlong objects of varying Sizes. Tliey can perform more than ... one functi~n in. a sequence,. moviJlg and stoppmg m endless. ~iOll ; with no _human hand at the contro~ :: .L Student.a at ASEA's trAining fa~ /'cility. said. 'retraining ~t only ~-.: (88~ JObs. roho!s enter th~ factory"l \b~ also unproye -th, working con". ,ditioJ!S on ~' shop floor~ In response :: to a .,question about t.ential h, 1:1 ':,the"' : ,' l?O .J9 ;, __ ,,. ,:_ cialW over Johansse~ -; their Swedish instructor, and nodded in agreement as he argued -that ro bots ate good forthe; WOlk force. "In Sweden the :trade unions have actually demanded the installation of more robots, because they do the jobs the workers don't want to do, and they always do it right," he said. :ASEA engin~ demonstrated a robot they have programmed to do a job that they said would be both tedious and dangerous a human ~ing. The robot picks up forged steel parts for Volkswagen brake as _semblies, reject.a. those not precisely the right size, moves them t.o: a pol iihini wheel that sinQOtbs the out side,: tranafers them t.o :another grinding wheel that. ~d"eburrs" or sinootD the inside; and then tit.acks ,them jp a !Kl~ ~dy fofah.ipment. ,The ,robot: CUl-perfonJ{ t,he same tasks endlessly, ignoring the noise and flying sparks and met.al shards, for ~t 40,000 hours, they said. -Actording to a recent consultant's _;report to Co!ita' Office 'nf h:nology. AsieMfueii~,-ne,arJi l,ioo Sucnmacfunes are m use in U;S. lac ~ries, largely in the autombilJ in'dusti'y. ,Japan,.which-leads the world in productimnmd use of the robots, has about 10,000 on line .. ... "There is. no doubt that robots \viJl .:revolutionize~ the wodt place," .said the report by Eli S. Lust.g~n of. Pain& Webber, Mitchell Hutchins Inc. The report said that the tech nology. of the machines i"s-fu more ~~~~.~the;~~ing of tbe 1n;iplicatio11s of l'Qbo'&.: on ~the '.social system ofthefactQry."' No,t~ that,''upwards of 20 million mqustrial jobs around the world' could be replaced by robots," Lust.garten wrote. that "retraining is the. major s~al problem createdby rapid robotiz4tion, :'hotunemploy' men~,,. Hesaid that the jobs created by widespread use of robots and unmanned man~ program. mers, technicians; engineers -.. for the 1!1,~ parj;;reqqire a &igh degree of teclinical training," unlike the jobs _ofthe wel4ers !llld painters they re.. place. As !e9ult, "Massive training programs _will be 11~edto ,prevent the creation of an .~rsitpply of workers whose' skill$ haw' become .,obsof~te and simuU:aneQus fiho..taes "'"" 0.eligmeers and techniciaril.!. .,_ :'" '9Ml~ lal>or unums are underftmdably apprehensiv& lbout the f ;;impact of robotiiation oh their mem-,Mark, AS~'s president; ar gues that "robot, have created nrore new jobs qian ~eyhave ~uD)~ted. :nie questi~n",~-~t hap~t1$1 to JO~>'-~~; it,we don t go to ro"h;ir!ll: tli~-. equntry? The Japa-:; !i1C~f!Fustry~d~::: il 1)81;&;".{ ::> < ', \' < .,-' ~. A. .. AOPhisticated robot can cost d ~~;i~_$10Q,OOQ. MIQ'k .. said he J lies not~ any reliable'.1:-~-~ on how~the. '"IS'"-' '. c '' : y' save ot how much they;~~. roductivit .. "'~~,Re.,-,. J,-,,i.

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.. ( ....... : In ,1 E DA -Weekly Slue .F.../'1. report An Jnsidc Washington Publicotion An exclusive report on the U.S. Environm~ntai Protection Agency I ; Vol. 2 No. 45 Nove,:ber 6, 1981 .,OTA SAYS MITCHELL ACiD RAIN BILL CUTS MORE SO2, COSTLIER THAN MOYNIHAN'S An Office of Technolo Assessment staff analysis of the acid deposition control bills recently introduced by Sens. George Mitchell (D-M and amel Moynihan (D-NY) indicates that the Mitchell bill would reduce more sulfur dioxide emissions but at a higher cost than the Moynihan bill. OTA's senior analyst Robert Fried man specifically telling the Senate Committee on Environment & Public Works last week that Mitchell's bill would reduce 2-million tons more sulfur dioxide per year, but at a cost up to $LS-billion more than the emission reductions costs under the Moynihan bill. The assessment; requested of OTA (a congressfonal research arm) by the Senate Environment & Public Works Committee and the House Committee on Energy & Com-. merce, presents one of the first detailed comparisons of two controversial acid deposition control bills. Fried man, director of OT A's ongoing study on the Impact of Atmospheric Alterations, re~ied heavily on draft results from his study .to prepare the analysis for the Senate and House committees.' The Mitchell bill (S. 1706), introduced Oct .. 5 and cosponsored by Environment'& Public Works Com mittee chairman Robert Stafford (R-VT), would require that the levels of sulf~ dioxide and nitrogen oxides emitted from 31 eastern states and the District of Columbia not exceed the amount of each of these pollu~ tants emitted from the region as of Jan. 1, 1981. And in addition, the bill calls for, wlthin}0 years, sulfur dioxide emissions from the eastern region to be reduced to IO-million tons_less than that emitted in 1980 (a 45% reduction). The Moynihan bill (S. 1709), introduced Oct. 6, instead calls for an 85% emissions reduction from current sulfur dioxide emissions levels, but from only the largest electric-generating plants (those emit ting in excess of 50,000 tons of sulfur dioxide in 1980) which OTA estimates to include about 60 plants in about half of the 3.1 eastern states. Differences between the Mitchell and Moynihan bills. Friedman's analysis shows major differences be tween the two bills on the levels of emissions reductions and allocations of the reductions among the eastern states. Fri~dman contends the Mitchell bill would result in about a 10-million ton reduction in su}fur dioxide emission levels from 1980 levels, while the Moynihan bill would result in about an 8-million ton reduction both calculations including all other state and federal laws regarding emissions reductions. Friedman says the Mitchell bill would allocate emissions reductions to almost all the states in the eastern U.S., whereas the Moynihan bill would reduce emissions in about half of the eastern states. For example, Friedman says, "[ u J nder _the Mitchell bill, sulfur dioxide emissions are reduced from 22.5-million tons per year to about 12.5-million tons, or by 45%"; "the Moynihan bill reduces emissions to 14.3-~illion tons,.-which is a 36% reduction in eastern sulfur dioxide emissions." .. Similarities between the Mitchell and Moynihan bills~ Friedman notes that both bills calculate emissions reductions from similar source categories and allow state"flexibility in obtaining reductions. For example, Fried man says, ~'though both bills calculate emission reductions by considering electric utilities only, they allow the .states to obtain emissions reductions a) from any source within the state,'b) by obtaining emission reductions .. from other states, and c) by substituting nitrogen oxide emissions.reductions from sulfur dioxide." In addition,

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"'"'""'" .... -:r;, ........ ,. ""~" VW,,1' .i.pi.1,,1.J.)' ;>r,,:v.,;;s";;;v,;;:, ..,~,l.'.J.~/lJ.U n;u~1~.1.v1.15 JY ii, ;;,;;,rrr,,1,1,;,a ::,asec, or., ':.:le rar.e or su,:Jiur dioxide emissions," which means that .. states with electric generating plants emitting at the highest rates wtll receive the largest share of emission reductions." But,, Friedman warns that, under both bills, calculating reductions "with.the accuracy required for regulation is a difficult task, and thus it may present implementation problems." Regional costs under both bDis. Friedman estimates that in the first ye;u, annualized costs incurred by the Mitchell bill could be almost double those incurred under the Moynihan bill Friedman estimating the first year costs under the Mitchell bill wo.uld range from $3.3 to $4.1-billion per year, while the costs associated with the Moynihan bill would range from an estimated $2.2 to $2.6-billion per year. Friedman notes that these figures "do not include the costs for emissions reductions required under current law" and that the rariges represent the upper and l~wer cost estimates, taking into consideration such mechanisms as intra-state trading, but not interstate trading. But, Friedman says, with an analysis using "the least-cost strategy of achieving reductions in the entire 31-state region through interstate trading," the "emissions reduction targets of the Mitchell and Moynihan bills could be achieved at a cost of $3.1 and $1.7-billion per year respectively. The total cost for utility air pollution control in the United States in 1980, according to Congressional Budget Office estimates, was abou~ SS .8-billion, Friedman said. JOHN TODHUNTER WAS APPROVED'AS EPA ASST. ADMINISTRATOR FOR TOXIC SUBSTANCES Nov. 3 by the Senate.Environment& ?,lblic Works Committee on a iJ-O vote and.sent to the Senate floor for what is expected to be an early and routine confirmation .vote. Th~ committee approved the Todhunter nomination along with the nominations of Robert Jantzen as director of the Interior Department's Fish--imd Wildlife Service and-of Carlos C. Campbell to be assistant secretary of economic development for the Commerce Department. Only Campbell's nomination provoked the slightest concern among Committee m_embers con sidering the vote, with ranking Democratic member Jennings Randolph of West Virginia expressing concern that the Reagan Administration is nominating. someon.~ "to pr.~side ov_er abolisln~nt o~ the Economic Develop-ment Administration, a matter of some concern." -' HERNANDEZ ACCEPTS SAB CALL TO EXEMPT SOME DATA FROM PEER/AGENCY REVIEW EPA deputy administrator:John Hernandez has decided to relax the agency's proposed peer/agency review policy in step with recommendations. made by the Science Advisory Board during their committee meeting last week -SAB members having expressed deep concern that the extensive policy proposed by Gorsuch for peer review and agency review of documents might be used as a means to limit information exchange on issues relating to key agency policy decisions. Specifically, SAB {with Hernandez's backing) called for Gorsuch to: 1. exempt all articles submitted to peer review journals from internal review procedures; and 2.exempt con. tract reports and contract proceedings paid for by EPA from iriternal EPA review requirements, instead attach-ing a "disclaimer" to these documents saying the information does not netessarily reflect EPA policy. Similar criticisms of Gorsuch's i:ecently proposed agency review procedures were echoed by industry observers present at the two-day SAB meeting, one industry attendee telling SAB me,nbers: '.'You have to ensure that even studies not consistent with agency:policy are available for outside distribution.'' SAB members reportedly expressed concerns that Gorsuch's policy could spur "censorship," with one member reportedly warning Hernandez the policy "could chase out the scientists from the agency," and another saying, "this process is l!}ce swatting a fly with a hammer." Gorsuch ~s p~~posed policy, outlined in an October 9 ~t o~der, establishes agency policy on reviewing scientific and informational materials, setting up both extensive peer review and administrative review procedures. Documents subject to the review requirements, Gorsuch said, include "all factual, scientific, or informational documents designed for public distribution and created by an EPA employee, contractor, grantee or con sultant," with a few exceptions. The laundry list of documents included published or unpublished books, manuals, and research reports; publications by EPA employees proposed for outside journals_including those for peer review; published proceedings resulting from agency sponsored conferences, workshops and seminars (including papers by 'non-EPA employees); and contributions to publications by interagency working groups where "authorship is to be attributed to EPA or its employees." "Peer review," Gorsuch says, "is designed to identify weak, :doubtful, ambiguous or unsupp~rtable state.ments or conclusions." STATE, LOCAL GOVERNMENTS ASK SENATE TO DROP LAE~, RELY ON BEST CONTROLS. Six state and local government groups November 2 urged the Senate Environment & Public Works Committe~ to eliminate the Clean Air Act's provision for lowest achievable emission rate (LAE~) in rionattainment areas and to rely instead on best available control technology (BACT) in both noriattairunent and prevention of significant deterioration areas. The groups said also that they largely agree that PSD classes II and Ill should be eliminated, wit~ states able to retain class II areas if they want to, and they. said PSQ class I protections INSIDE E.P .A. November 6, 198f .. r-~ ... ~:::::::: .-~-_ __. ( ......

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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE COAL WEEK WASHINGTON, D.C. WEEKLY NOV 2 1981 ENVIRONMENT Bills faulted as ineffective against acid rain, punitive to coal states Bills forcing speedy reductions in sulfur dioxide emissions in the eastern US would severely impact the high-sulfur mid western and Appalachian coal-producing regions and their electric utility consumers, witnesses told the Senate Environ ment & Public Works Committee. But the bills' effect on acid rain, which they are supposed to mitigate, is unknown, witnesses say. ./ Chris Farrand of Pellbody Coal said his firm's study of S 1706, sponsored by Sen. George Mitchell (D-ME) shows many utilities would substitute lower sulfur coal or oil rather than retrofit their generators with scrubbers. The bill would halt or reverse New England coal conversions, he said. Consumers in eight states Alabama, Georgia, Illinois, In diana, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio and Pennsylvania would pay in excess of $200-million/y more in utility bills by 1990. The figure would go higher if utilities' scramble for low-sulfur fuels pushed up their prices. Coal mining would lose 75,000 jobs Farrand said the move away from mediumand high-sulfur coals would cost more than 75,000 coal mining jobs in the decade, with more than 10,000 jobs each lost in the states of Il linois, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Some 307-million tons of coal production would be displaced. The bill's economic consequences are "punitive" and the bill bears "no assurance that any commensurate reduction in acid rain will occur as a result." v Robert Freidman of the Q!Jj1,1; gf lei;.lu1ol!i)il' AW~Jl.)fQl, said effects on utilities could be mitigated somewhat because utilities contribute only about 700Jo of sulfur dioxide emissions in the eastern US. Reductions in industrial and other sources could be ordered in each state. OTA estimates the IO-million ton reduction in annual SO2 emissions Mitchell's bill requires by 1990 will cost utilities $3.3to $4.1-billion/y exclusive of costs already budgeted to meet existing emission requirements. Sen. Daniel Moynihan's (D-NY) bill requiring reductions in the largest polluters in the eastern states would net an 8.2-million ton reduction and would cost less, about $2.2to $2.6-billion/y. It would fall disproportionately on some states. Tennessee, Ohio, Missouri, Kentucky and Indiana utilities would have to reduce their SO2 emissions by more than 600Jo but some other states would have to take no action. Kathleen Bennett, assistant Environmental Protection Agency administrator for air programs, reiterated EP A's op position to any new emission requirements until the pheno menon of acid rain is better understood. More certainty will be possible in three to five years, she said. I ; I

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