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Quarterly Report Office of Technology Assessment January 1-March 31, 1983
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Office of Technology Assessment Congressional Board of the 98th Congress MORRIS K. UDALL, Arizona, Chairman TED STEVENS, Alaska, Vice Chairman Senate ORRIN G. HATCH Utah CHARLES McC. MATHIAS, JR. Maryland EDWARD M. KENNEDY Massachusetts ERNEST F. HOLLINGS South Carolina CLAIBORNE PELL Rhode Island CHARLES N. KIMBALL, Chairman Midwest Research Institute EARL BEISTLINE University of Alaska CHARLES A. BOWSHER General Accounting Office CLAIRE T. DEDRICK California Land Commission House GEORGE E. BROWN, JR. California JOHN D. DINGELL Michigan LARRY WINN, JR. Kansas CLARENCE E. Ml LLER Ohio JOHN H. GIBBONS (Nonvoting) Advisory Council JAMES C. FLETCHER University of Pittsburgh S. DAVID FREEMAN Tennessee Valley Authority COOPER EVANS Iowa RACHEL McCULLOCH University of Wisconsin WILLIAM J. PERRY Hambrecht & Quist GILBERT GUDE Congressional Research Service DAVID S. POTTER General Motors Corp. CARL N. HODGES University of Arizona Director JOHN H. GIBBONS LEWIS THOMAS Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center
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CONTENTS I. DIRECTOR'S STATEMENT A. Highlights of the Quarter 1 B. "Uncertainty is Certain-at OTA". 1 C. Director's Congressional Visits 2 II. COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS A. Summary of FY '82 Completions, Ongoing Work, and New Starts Through March 31, 1983 3 B. Products Delivered During the Quarter 1. Formal Assessment Reports 4 2. Other: Technical Memoranda, Background Papers, Staff Papers or Letter Memoranda, Workshop Proceedings, and Committee Prints..................... 5 3. Testimony .. 8 4. Media Coverage: Summary and Highlights................ 9 S. Requests for OTA Publications 10 6. Private Sector Reprinting of OTA Publications C. Other Communication with Congress 1. Briefings, Presentations, Workshops.................. 13 2. Informal Discussions --Topics....................... 14 3. Subjects of Coordination with Other Congressional Support Agencies. 16 D. New Assessments Approved During the Quarter.............. 18 E. Projects in Process as of 3/31/83 (including formal assessments, responses to TAB, and Committee requests) Description, Requester(s), and Brief Status Reports of Projects 19 A. In Progress as of 3/31/83........................ 20 B. In Press as of 3/31/83........................... 53 C. Undergoing TAB Review as of 3/31/83 N/A Project Advisory Panel Meetings or Workshops Held.... 61 III. EXTERNAL ACTIVITIES A. External Publications by OTA Staff....................... 62 B. Visits to OTA by Foreign Officials/Groups................ 63 IV. PUBLICATION BRIEFS OF FORMAL ASSESSMENTS DELIVERED 66 V. SELECTED NEWS CLIPS ON OTA PUBLICATIONS AND ACTIVITIES
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-1 -I. DIRECTOR'S STATEMENT A. Highlights of the Quarter Fromthe opening gavel, the 98th Congress has moved with impressive velocity (recall that velocity connotes both speed and direction)! Much of OTA's work is related to fut~re concerns of Congress,.but these days the near-. term relevance of our work to Cong.ressional need seems unusually high. During the January-March quarter, OTA was deeply involved in -~uch topical issues as hazardous wastes; analyses of proposed Clean Air Act amendments; and industrial and commercial cogeneration. In addition, we are still in the midst of the "delivery" phase of our work on high..;level nuclear waste following passage of legislation in December, 1982. B. "Uncertainty; is Certain at OTA" We find that delivery of an OTA Report, signifying the.formal. completion ofan assessment, remains an essential part of OTA's process of Congressional service. However,.we find that the value of such assessments takes on a fuller meaning through a complementary delivery process of briefings, testimony, and special analyses. It is in .these ways that information most effectively flows between technical experts at OTA and decisionmakers in Congress. The extent to which such activities will be required, both during and after completion of the analyses, is difficult to anticipate at the outset of an assessment. There is also inherent uncertainty about the specific topic of future OTA projects. For example, when we undertook our major assessment on hazardous wastes, we anticipated that once the Report was delivered to Congress, the research team might move on to other resource management i$sues As a result of the analysis, subsequent Congressional hearings on the extent of the problem and need to find alternatives to landfill disposal, and other national developments; however, it now appears that there is an urgent need for OTA to assess the technology of treatment and clean-up of hazardous wastes. In addition to getting more business than we can handle from Congress, OTA is currently inundated with non-Congressional inquiries and requests for visits, briefings, and permissionto do research on the Office. One exhausted OTA staffer exclaimed, "Our successes are killing us! One possible explanation for this.situation is that we are doing our job so well that others .would like to emulate us; an alternative explanation is that the number and intensity of tough, persistent problems related to technology is still on the rise. Whatever the cause, the increased interactions with our counterparts in domestic and foreign government, industry, academia, and public interest groups require time and thought but they also reward us in several ways. First, OTA is increasingly linked into the "invisible college" of first-hand information about science, technology, and policy. This improves our ability to improve our role as the eyes and ears for Congress. Second, as a result of
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-2 -these connections, we improve our chances to obtain help from the very best people in and out of government. Third, by seeing ourselves through the critical but constructive eyes of knowledgeable outsiders, we are able to constantly improve our performance for Congress. OTA will best fill its responsibilities to Congress if it is viewed as the gathering place for national and international wisdom about current and emerging technology and its impacts. Therefore, the time wrenched away from our analyses to spend in dialogue with visitors is usually time well-spent, however frustrating when our agenda ts already so crowded. c. Director's Congressional Visits Senator Slade Gorton Senator Claiborne Pell Congressman Cooper Evans Congressman Vic Fazio Congressman Morris K. Udall Congressman Larry Winn, Jr.
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-3 -II. COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ A. Summary of FY '82 Completions, Ongoing Work in FY '83, and New Starts Through March 31, 1983 FY '82 FY Products Delivered Total Ql Formal Assessments 20 Other Technical Memoranda 3 Background Papers or CaseStudies 12 Testimony 49 Committee Prints 0 Staff Memos or Substantial 22 l/ Letter Memoranda Other: Reissue of Summary 1 Administrative Documents 5 Summary without Report 1 Working Papers (Volumes) 2 Projects Approved Formal Assessments 151/ Projects in Process as of March 31, 1983 1. In Press 4 1 0 2 0 3 0 2. 0 0 2 1./ Formal Assessments 7 .!!/ Other (TM's, Background Papers, etc.) 6 2. Under TAB Review 0 3. In Progress Formal Assessments 27 Other. 2 1 1 6 0 2 0 3 0 0 1 '83 _q,! Q4 This figure includes Q3 and Q4 only; Ql and Q2 were not tabulated. Includes two assessments approved in Sepember, 1982, that commenced the first quarter 1983. Both by mail vote. Includes Report of one assessment for which a summary has been published and xerox copies of the full report has been delivered to the requesters [Managing Commercial High-Level Radioactive Waste (4/82)]. ----
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-4 -II. COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS B. Products Delivered During the Quarter 1. Formal Assessment Reports 0 0 INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL COGENERATlON -Studied the economic and technical effects of dispersed electric energy systems on the operation of electric utilities. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee onBanking, Finance; and Urban Affairs Hon. Henry-S. Reuss, then Chairman House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Hon James T. Broyhill, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Richard L. Ottinger, Chairman, Subcommittee on Energy Conservation and.Power Hon. Carlos J. Moorhead, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Ene_rgy Conservation and Power House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon. Larry Winn, Jr., Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Jenifer Robison, 6-2134 TECHNOLOGIES AND MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR HAZARDOUS WASTE CONTROL Looked at four aspects of the hazardous waste problem: the concepts of degree of hazard and risk benefit and analysis; existing dump sites that pose a threat to health and the environment; safe treatment and disposal of presently~gener~ted hazardous wastes; and process and/or product modification to reduce the amount and/or hazard of the hazardous wastes. Nonnuclear Industrial Wastes: Classifying for Hazards Management (Technical Memorandum) (Delivered November, 1981) (Requester: Same as for full assessment) -Discusses the basic issues surrounding a degree-of-hazard classification approach; the potential for incorporating a degree-of-hazard concept through classification in current regulation; various methods for applying the system; and questions to be addressed before the decision regarding incorporating the system at the Federal and State level can be made. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Hon. James J. Florio, Chairman, Subcommittee on Commerce, Transportation, and Tourism Project Director: Joel Hirschhorn, 6-2089
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-5 II. B. 2. Other: Technical Memoranda, Background and Staff Papers,. 0 0 Proceedings, and Committee Prints AUTOMATION AND THE WORKPLACE: SELECTED LABOR, EDUCATION, AND TRAINING ISSUES (Technical Memorandum --A component of the OTA assess~ent, Com uter:l.zed Factory Automation:. Education Employment, and the Workplace -Discusses concepts for evalua-ting the impacts of manufacturing automation, and describes the condu_ct of education, training, and retraining for persons seeking or holding jobs in manufacturing industries. Request or Aff:l.rmation of Int.erest: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation Hon. Bob Packwood, Chairman Hon. Harrison H. Schmitt, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space Senate-Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Chairman Hon. Dan Quayle, Chairman, Subcommittee on Employment and Productivity Joint Economic Committee Hon. Roger W. Jepsen, then Ranking Minority Member, now Chairman Hon. Henry s. Reuss, then Chairman House Committee on Education and Labor Hon. George Miller, Chairman, Subcommittee on Labor Standards House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Project Director: Marjory Blumenthal, 6-2201 THE EFFECTIVENESS AND COST OF ALCOHOLISM TREATMENT (Case Study --A component of the OTA assessment, Medical Technology and Costs of the Medicare Program) Examines the evidence on alcoholism treatment in a variety of settings (in-patient care, out-patient hospital care, community based treatment centers, etc.) as well as the effectiveness of various methods of treatment (chemical aversion therapy, group therapy, and Alcoholics Anonymous). (Published March 1983) Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Hon. Henry A. Waxman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health and Environment
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-6 -Senate Committee on Appropriations Hon. Dennis DeConcini, Member Hon. Gordon J. Humphrey, Chairman, Subcommittee on Alcoholism and Drug Abuse Senate Committee on Finance Hon. Bob Dole, Chairman Hon. Dave Durenberger, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health Hon. Max Baucus, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Health Project Director: Anne Burns, 6-2070 ADMINISTRATIVE PUBLICATIONS (1) Update: OTA Assessment Activities -Revised (2) Update: What Is OTA -Revised (3) Update: OTA List of Publications -Revised
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Date 02/01/83. 03/01/83 -7 -OTA Staff Memos Subject Comments on Air Pollution Cost Models and Acid Rain Articles A National Network for Scientific Research Related OTA Work Impacts of Atmospheric Alterations Computer Based National Information Systems
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-8 -II. B. 3. Testimony Date 02/27/83 03/02/83 03/09/83 03/10/83 03/18/83 03/22/83 03/30/83 Committee/Chairman House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommt"ttee on International Operations (Congress-man Dante Fascell) House Committee on Science and Technology, Subcommittee on Energy Research and Prodction (Congresswoman Marilyn L. Bouquard) House Committee on Science and Technology, Subcommitteeon Energy Development and Applications (Congressman DonFuqua) Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs (Sen~tor Alan K. Simpson) Joint Economic Committee (Senator Roger W. Jepsen) House. Committee on Energy and Commerce, Subcommittee on Commerce, Transportation, and Tourism (Congressman James J. Florio) House Committee on Science and Technology, Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight (Congressman Albert Gore, Jr.) Subject/Person Testifying UNISPACE and International Teiecommunications Union (Ray Williamson) The FY '84 DOE Authorization for Commercial Waste Management (Tom Cotton) Industrial Energy Use and Electrical Energy Demand (Richard Rowberg) Provision of Preventive Services By the VA (Clyde Behney) Manufacturing Automation: Selected Employment and Education Issues (John Andelin) Technologies and Management Strategies for Hazardous -Waste Control (Joel Hirschhorn) Technologies and Management Strategies for Hazardous Waste Control (Joel Hirschhorn)
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-9 -II. B. 4. Media Coverage: Summary and Highlights The appendices of this report contain a 5% sampling from more than 2,000 clips of stories pertaining to OTA from foreign and domestic press and specialized newsletters, and transcripts from radio and television broadcasts. The clips in total discuss or refer to some 31 OTA publications or studies in progress. During this quarter, Time Magazine quoted from four OTA publications: Informational Technology and Its Impact on American Education (''Machine of the Year" cover story); Computerized Factory Automation: Education, Employment, and the Workplace (Technical Memorandum); The Artificial Heart: Costs, Risks, and Benefits (Case Study); and Technologies and Management Strategies for Hazardous Waste Control. Technologies and Management Strategies for Hazardous Waste Control received .the most extensive coverage, with stories appearing in the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, the Christian Science Monitor, and other major dailies, as well as on the major radio and television networks. Education, a quarterly professional publication, carried a lengthy article on Informational Technology and Its Impact on American Education. Parade Magazine, the Sunday newspaper supplement, cited OTA's Report, Alternatives fo~ a National Criminal Computerized History System in a story on the FBI.
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10 -II. B. 5. Requests for OTA Publications During the second quarter of FY '83, the OTA Publishing Office processed 8,797 separate mail and phone requests for OTA publications (averaging approximately 140 requests per day). Of these requests, 1,752 were Congressional an:d 7,045 were non-Congressional (mostly referred .to GPO). OTA's most popular publication for this quarter (within a 15 day period) was Technologies and Management Strategies for Hazardous Waste Control. Several Congressional offices requested multiple copies of OTA's publications. Among the requests were: o Requests for a total of 153 full Reports and/or Summaries of Technologies and Management Strategies for Hazardous Waste Control for distribution to Committee staffs and distribution in district offices. o Request for 200 copies of the Summary of Informational Technology and Its Impact on American Education for distribution to school districts with the Member's Congressional district. o Request for 100 copies of the Summary of Managing Commercial HighLevel Radioactive Waste for distribution at a meeting on nuclear waste disposal. Multiple copies of publications were also requested by other Government agencies and/or private organizations. They included: o Informational Technology and.Its Impact on American Education: 20 copies of the full Report were requested by the Ford Foundation for distribution purposes. o Informational Technology and Its Impact on American Education: 150 copies of the Summary were requested by the Department of Education in Columbia, s.c. for distribution to business education teachers at an Annual Vocational Inservice Conference. Additional requests for this Summary include: o 32 copies requested by the council of the Great City Schools (DC) for distribution to major school districts; and o 100 copies requested by the University of Pittsburgh for distribution to faculty members in various school districts. o Assessment Activities Booklet: 80 copies were requested by the University of Maryland, Department of Industrial Education for distribution to students in a class entitled "Technology and Society."
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-11 -o Technology and Handicapped People, Background Paper #2 -Selected Telecommunications Devices for Hearing-Impaired Persons: 25 copies were requested by the American Association for the Advancement of Science for distribution to health professionals. The Effects of Nuclear War: 125 copies of the Summary were requested by the University of Arizona, Department of Political Science, for distribution to students. o The Effects of Nuclear War; Informational Technologz and Its Impact on American Education: 50 copies each of the summary documents were requested by a school in New Hampshire for classroom use. o Industrial and Commercial Cogeneration: 60 copies of the Summary were requested by the Department of Housing and Urban Development to distribute to the agency's field offices. o The Effecti.veness and Costs of Alcoholism Treatment: 50 copies were requested by the Boston University, Department of Psychology. o Technology and Management Strategies for Hazardous Waste Control: 150 copies of the Summary were requested by the League of Women Voters for distribution to state hazardous waste chairpersons. Additional requests for this Summary included: o 250 copies requested by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (Ohio Regional Office) to be distributed in public advisory committee meetings; o 100 copies requested by SCA Chemical Services, Inc., for general distribution; and o 100 copies requested by Mintz & Levin (law firm) for general distribution. o Radiofrequency Use and Management Impacts from the World Administrative Radio Conference of 1979: 300 copies of the Summary were requested by the Communications Law Program of u.c.L.A. for distributions at U.C.L.A.'s Third Biennial Symposium on Communications Law.
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-12 -II. B. 6. Private Sector Reprinting of OTA Publications To date, 38 OTA publications (in whole or in part) have been reprinted by commercial publishers or private organizations for various audiences. During this. quarter, the following commercial publishers request.ed permi-ssion to reprint OTA documents: o Harwood Academic Publishers, a New York based company, has requested permission to reprit\tin full the Summary Managing Commercial High Level Radioactive Waste. o ERIC Clearinghouse on Information Resources (funded by the National Institute of Education) has requested permission to reprint Chapter "i, Summary, Informational Technology and Its Impact on American Education. o The University of Phoenix has requested permission to reprint the Summary of The Implications of Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Medical Technology. The Summary document will be used as learning material for a course on Professional Communications at the University. Expected first printing will be approximately 400 copies. In addition, several magazines will be featuring articles on OTA and its publications. Among the magazines are: Satellite Communications Magazine (article on S ace Science Research in the United States: A Technical Memorandum, to be published in the April May issue); Compressed Air Magazine (division of Ingersoll-Rand Co.) will do an article on OTA in general; and the Futurist Magazine (article qn Informational Technology and Its Impact on American Education).
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13 -II. c. Other Communication with Congress 1. Briefings, Presentations, Workshops (With Committee_Staffs) Committees of the Senate Appropriations Full Committee Budget o Command, Control, Communications, and Inteligence Systems Full Committee o. Benefits and costs of the National Airspace System Plan Commerce, Science, and Transportation Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space o Status of the biotechnology report Energy and Natural Resources Full Committee o Industrial and Commercial Cogeneration Environment and Public Works Full Committee o Technologies and Management Strategies for Hazardous Waste Control Judiciary Subcommittee on Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights o Follow-up on Alternatives for a National Computerized Criminal History System
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-14 -II. C. 2. Informal Discussions --Topics In addition to briefings and presentations, informal discussions take place continually as requested by Members and staff to be updated on OTA work to provide information that Members and Committees may need relative to legislation pending or under consideration or for hearings and related testimony. Topics Nuclear power _Fusion energy Update on nuclear power study Nuclear licensing reform Coal slurry pipeline Cogeneration Uranium enrichment Effect of price decontrol on natural gas supplies Environmental research and development Housing technology Ocean thermal energy conversion Energy conservation in Massachusetts Coal leasing Love Canal Public physical infrastructure Structural unemployment Domestic and international demand for wood products New methods for financing Superfund Update on technology transfer assessment Industrial poliY and employment Update on the CI study Costs of medical care Controlled clinical trials in medicine Blood technology and blood banking policy Alternatives to animal experimentation Agent Orange Health effects of exposure to radiation Update on safety and health technologies in the workplace Love Canal Validity of polygraphs VA procurement policies Alcoholism Diagnosis related groups Catastrophic insurance Organ transplants
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-15 -Genetic testing in the workplace Biotechnology Aging study Exploration of technology, natural reso'urces, and -American folk art Water,and western agriculture U~S~ agriculture structure Electronic Message:Systems study follow-up Computerized Criminal History Systems study follow-up Technology and the financial services industry study update Polygraph study development Update on information technology R&D study Education systems' ability to provide instruction in high technology Use of programmable automation in manufacturing Update on the computerized manufacturing study Employment forecasting Technology and unemployment Acid rain Federal environmental monitoring EPA contractual procedures for modeling studies Update on coal export study U.S. Territories Energy Conference Virgin Islands ferryboat study Ocean thermal energy conversion Update on the groundwater contamination study Wetlands update High-level radioactive waste Airport system development Update on civilian space stations study Railcar manufacturing and magnetic levitation Update on Technology, Innovation, and Regional Economic Development
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-16 -II. C. 3. Subjects of Coordination with Other Congressional Support Agencies Topic/Description CRS CBO GAO Overall energy project coordination X Electric utility rate-:--making X Alaskan natural gas alternatives X Electricity demand and supply; OTA's nuclear power study X Nuclear power and proliferation X Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion X Massachusetts energy conservation X Housing technology X Coal slurry pipeline reguation X Technical basis of the Love Canal habitability decision X Wood assessment X Forest service timber management costs X Request for GAO study on electronics R&D X GAO study on Saudi military absorptive capacity X GAO study on transfer of consumer supply items X GAO study on private sector AID programs in Egypt X Technical assistance to Jordan X Economic data series X X X Civilian space economics and policies X International economic issues X GAO studies on Landsat transfer to private sector X GAO study on~ basing X GAO study on CI X VA procurement X Evaluation of drugs and medical devices X Health care cost containment X X X Agent Orange X X Premanufacture notices X Medicare X Inpatient versus outpatient procedures X Ambulatory surgery X Medically unnecessary admissions X TEFRA and DRG's X New Jersey hospital reimbursement system X
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Topic/Description OTA's aging project Workshop on long-term care Water production costs 17 -Western farmers' ability to pay for water GAO study ort stockyards GAO study on EPA contracting activities GAO study on OSM and its effects on ~nvironment of Federal and non-federal lands GAO study on alternatives for DOD's purchase.of land around missile sites to control land use Polygraph study coordination Computerized Criminal History follow-up Plans for information studies Information technology R&D GAO audit of the DOD/MANTECH program (automation technology development) Proposed GAO study of infrastructure needs Proposed GAO study of drug and alcohol abuse by transportation operators GAO analysis of the Airport Improvement Program .Proposed GAO study of effects of modal subsidies on the transportation infrastructure and the competitiveness among transportation modes Demand, Economic, and Institutional Considerations of High Speed Rail Coordination of maritime studies Coal market and utility control costs Groundwater contamination NO control reports nof waste management program CRS X X X X X X CBO. X X X GAO X X X X .X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
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-18 -II. D. New Assessments Approved During the Quarter Formal Assessments o Technologies to Measure, Monitor, and Mitigate Groundwater Contamination (02/03/83) Special Responses o Habitability Issues Related to Love Canal (02/15/83) o Scientific Validity and Reliability of the Polygraph (03/18/83) o Analysis of the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 (03/25/83)
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-19 -DESCRIPTION, REQUESTERS, AND BRIEF STATUS REPORTS FOR CURRENT OTA ASSESSMENTS AS OF MARCH 31, 1983
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II. E. 2. _pescription and Requester(s) of Projecte A. IN -f~0GRESS AS OF 3/31/83 Energy, Materials, and Internatiori~l.~curity Division 1. STRATEGIC RESPONSES TO AN EXTENDED OIL DISRUPTION -Will analyze capacity of various technologies to respond to the demands of the economy under conditions of a major oil disruption, including both national aggregate questions and regional analysis. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Hon. Charles H. Percy, Chairman Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: Contractor work on technology comparison and economic analysis continued; the draft Phase One document on supply technologies was completed and reviewed. Work was initiated on a contract to look at technological options appropriate for the State of california. This analysis will be used to indicate the diversity of options both needed and available across the country. The advisory panel met on March 17, 1983, to review project status and assist staff in bounding future work. Project Director: Nancy Naismith, 6-2113 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: June 1983
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-21 -2. POTENTIAL U.S. NATURAL GAS AVAILABILITY -Will help determine domestic (lower 48 states) natural gas availability over the next few decades, and to help understand the factors that affect this availability (resource base, production rates and costs, future technology trends, R&D needs, and institutional and policy issues). U.S. Natural Gas Availability: Discovery and Production of Conventional Natural Gas in the Lower 48 States: (Technical Memorandum) -This Technical Memorandum will: describe and evaluate alternative estimates of the conventional natural gas resource base of the lower 48 states; describe and interpret past and current trends in discovery and production of this gas resource; and project a credible range of potential (conventional) gas production for the next 15-20 years. (Requesters: Same as for full assessment) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Hon. Pete V. Domenic!, Chairman, Subcommittee on Energy Research and Development House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman, co-signed by Hon. Philip R. Sharp, Chairman, Subcommittee on Fossil and Synthetic Fuels Hon. Gary Hart, Senator from Colorado Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: The first draft of the Technical Memorandum was completed and distributed to the advisory panel and several outside reviewers. The second advisory panel meeting was held on March 24, 1983. The panel generally approved of the draft Technical Memorandum and agreed that it was in good enough shape to allow publication within a few months. A workshop on the physical implications of alternative gas resource base estimates was held at the U.S Geological Survey Reston facility on February 4, 1983. The Resource Analysis Branch of USGS had set up this workshop at OTA's request. Project Director: Steven-Plotkin, 6-2110 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: July 1983
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-22 -3. THE FUTURE OF CONVENTIONAL NUCLEAR POWER -This assessment will examine the major technical considerations about the future of conventional nuclear power and how these technologies can affect economic, regulatory, and institutional (e.g., government, industry responsibilities) issues that govern that option. The consequences-of possible changes for licensing, reactor costs, safety, industrial structure, and public perception will be examined. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Hon. James A. McClure, Chairman House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon. Marilyn L. Bouquard, Chairman, Subcommittee on Energy Research and Production Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: The third and final workshop was held February 23-24 in Knoxville, Tennessee. Public acceptance, institutional rearrangements, and utility views of the future of nuclear power were discussed. The first draft of the project report is well underway. The advisory panel will review it at its meeting on April 21. The final versions of most contractor reports have been recieved. We have continued to brief the requesting Committees. Meetings were also held with industry, DOE, and intervenor groups. Project Director: Alan Crane, 6-2151 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: May 1983
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-23 .-----------------------4. WOOD IN THE U.S. ECONOMYWill assess future demand and supply of wood and_.:t'.:e-t.'hnologies for using wood; evaluate future production capability; explore use of wood as a substitute for nonrenewable materials; analyze forest management policies on public lands; assess R&D on technology for wood use and production; and review public policies and identify policy options affecting forest production and the use of wood as a material. Technology and Wood Use: Status and Prospects (Technical Memorandum) -Will include an assessment of the current state of the art of the utilization of wood materials and .the prospect for technological improvements in uses for wood. (Requester: House Committee on Agriculture; Hon. James Weaver, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Forests, Family Farms, and Energy) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Appropriations Hon. Mark O. Hatfield, Chairman, co-signed by Hon. Thad Cochran, Chairman, Subcommittee on Agriculture, Rural Development, and Related Agencies House Committee on Agriculture Hon. James Weaver, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Forests, Family Farms, and Energy Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: During the second quarter, OTA revised and expanded the draft of this assessment. The advisory panel reviewed the draft at a panel meeting on March 31, 1983. Project Director: Jim Curlin, 6-2206 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: April 1983
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-....... ': ~. .. .~ .. -24 -5. TECHNOLOGY TO REDUCE U.S. MATERIALS l&0RT VULNERABILITY The focus of the study will be on technical opport-::!iitites to reduce our vulnerability to interruptions in supply Of strategic and critical imported materials in the longer term (5 to 25 years) through, fer,~xample, substitution, including materi~ls, process and product substitut:f:Qth improved mining, processing and ... recycling technologies, and~mQre efficient fabrication and design. The study will also identify.lllB.Jor changes in materials vulnerability that are likely to occur over.the next 25 years because of advances in such fields as electronics, energy, and transportation. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Bob Packwood, Chairman Hon. Howard cannon, then Ranking Minority Member Hon. Harrison Schmitt, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon. Doug Walgren, Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Research, and Technology Hon. Dan Glickman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Transportation, Aviation, and Materials Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: The first meeting of the advisory panel was held on January 6, 1983, to discuss the general structure and research methodology of the assessment. Drafts of two chapters of the assessment have been prepared. Requests for proposals have been issued for investigations of the.outlook for improvements in exploration technology and for the potential to reduce strategic metal consumption through substitution. Several contractor reports were received, notably a study of the response of the cobalt market to uncertainities of African cobalt supplies from 1978 through 1981. An informal briefing was held for the Government Committee of the American Society for Metals. Project Director: Lance N. Antrim, 6-2208 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: February 1984
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. -25 6. STRATEGIC COMMAND, CONTROL, COMMUNICATIONS, AND INTELLIGENCE (C3I) SYSTEMS -Will assess the technical capabilities and vulnerabilities of present U.S. c3 I systems with special emphasis on additions to the system that could usefully be made in the near term with availa.ble technology. Request or Affirmation of Interest:: Senate Committee on Appropriations Hon. Ted Stevens (Vice Chairman, OTA CongreE?sional Board) Chai~man, Subcommittee on Defense, at the request of Hon. Paul Laxalt, Chairman, Subcommittee on Milttary Construction House Committee on Appropriations Hon. Joseph P. Addabbo, Chairman, Subconnnittee on Defense Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: A second advisory panel meeting held on March 14 addressed a "White Paper" which outlined the contracts and organization fo the final report. The panel also reviewed preliminary research findings and a formal briefing prepared for Congress. The two contractors submitted draft reports for OTA comment and evaluation. Project Director: Bruce Blair, 6-2015 Projected Delivery.Date to TAB: July 1983
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-26 -7. INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AND COMPETITION IN CIVILIAN SPACE ACTIVITIES -This project will evaluate the current status of international competition and cooperation in key areas of space technology in space science, and for educational and scientific exchange. It will investigate ways in which space technologies and their products could be used as instruments of U.S. foreign policy, and examine military space activities insofar as they affect civilian programs and international commercial and political relations. UNISPACE Conference (Technical Memorandum) -Evaluates the technical.and economic issues that will arrise in the upcoming United Nations Conference on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UNISPACE '82) in August 1982, where many of the important issues will be discussed in an international context. (Requester: Same as for the full assessment) Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon. Larry Winn, Jr., Ranking Minority Member Hon. Ronnie G. Flippo, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Space, Science, and Applications Hon. Harold c. Hollenbeck, Member Joint Economic Committee Hon. Roger W. Jepsen, then Vice Chairman; now Chairman Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: Completed Technical Memorandum, UNISPACE '82: A Context for International Competition. (in press) Continued research and writing on the full report and received three .major contract reports. Project Director: Ray Williamson, 6-2209 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: September 1983
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27 -8. TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER TO THE MIDDLE EAST Study objectives include an assessment of patterns of competition in technology transfer to the oil-rich nations of the region, an investigation of the capability of these nations to effectively absorb Western Technology, an evaluation of likely future trends in technology transfer to the Middle East, and an examination of the implications for U.S. foreign and international economic policy. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, r,.nd Urban Affairs Hon. Jake Garn, Chairman Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Hon. Charles H. Percy, Chairman, Subcommittee on Energy, Nuclear Proliferation, and Government Processes Hon. John Glenn, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Energy, Nuclear Proliferation, and Government Processes House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon. Larry Wirin, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Albert Gore, Jr., Chairman, Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight Hon. Robert S. Walker, then Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: A meeting for the project researchers, including outside contractors, was held on March 1, 1983, to discuss research findings. On March 2, 1983, the advisory panel met to review project progress, focusing on interim research findings. Project team members briefed Congressional staff on progress in mid-March, continued research for various segments of the project, and reviewed final reports submitted by outside contractors. Project Director: Martha Harris, 6-2016 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: November 1983
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-28 -Health and Life Sciences Division 9. WATER-RELATED TECHNOLor,IES FOR SUSTAINING AGRICULTURE IN U.S. ARID/SEMIARID LANDS -Will focus on the opportunities of present and emerging technologies to meet long-term sustainable agricultural water demands in arid and semiarid U.S. lands. Water-Related Technologies for Sustaining Arid/Semiarid Agriculture: Selecte~ .Foreign Agriculture Practices (Background Paper) (In Press) -Will highlight a few examples of waterrelated technologies that have been successfully applied in arid and semiarid foreign countries in a manner not being applied in the U.S.: integrated irrigation management in Pakistan, intensive water use planning in Israel, cooperative plant breeding in Senegal, native game ranching in Kenya, and guayule production in Australia. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Hon. James Abdnor, Chairman, Subcommittee on Water Resources House Committee on Agriculture Hon. E. (Kika) de la Garza, Chairman Hon. Thomas S. Foley, then Chairman; still Member Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: The advisory panel final meeting was held on March 29-30. Staff continues drafting final assessment report incorporating comments from widespread outside review. Project director briefed the National Academy of Sciences' Board of Agriculture on the project. Project Director: Barbara Lausche, 6-2223 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: June 1983
PAGE 33
-29 -10. TECHNOLOGIES TO SUSTAIN TROPICAL FOREST RESOURCES -Will investigate technologies that can be used in the tropical regions of the U.S. and in those ~ations supported by U.S. development assistance to sustain a broad range of forest resources. Sustaining Tropical Forest Resources: U.S. and International institutions (Background Paper) (.In Press) --Will describe the state-of-the-art in use of forestry technologies to restore the productivity of tropical lands that have been degraded because of human activity. (Requester: Same as for full assessment.) Sustaining Tropical Forest Resources: Reforestation of Degraded Lands (Background Paper) (In Press) --Will describe government, academic, and private sector institutions in the United States that are developing or implementing technologies to sustain tropical forest resources. (Requester: Same as for full assessment,.) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Hon. James A. McClure, Chairman Se~ate Committee on Environment and Public Works Hon. John H. Chafee, .Chairman, Subcommittee on Environmental Pollution House Committee on Foreign Affairs Ron. Clement J. Zablocki, Chairman House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs Hon. Antonio Borja Won Pat, Chairman, Subcommittee on Insular Affairs Hon. Robert J. Lagomarsino, Ranking Minority Member, Subcqmmittee on Insular Affairs U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Mervyn M. Dymally Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: Background papers are in press, and writing of final assessment report continues. The advisory panel met for final time on March 7-8. Project Director: Bruce Ross-Sheriff, 6-2192 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: June 1983
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. ,,. ..... . ... 30 11. PLANTS: THE POTENTIALS FOR EXTRACTING PROTEIN, MEDICINES, AND OTHER USEFUL CHEMICALS -OTA will conduct a workshop designed to identify technological opportunities and constraints for commercially -developing protein, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and other associated extracts from plants generally and tobacco specifically. OTA will examine the potential impacts that such technologies might have on improving nutrition and food quality by increasing the availability of high quality protein. Issues that will be addressed include: a) quality of current data bases on chemistry of plant extracts; b) status of bioassay technologies; and c) social, economic, environme~tal, and political impacts that such new technologies might generate. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Hon. Jesse Helms, Chairman Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: Peer review of all background papers is complete. The review comments have been returned to each author of the background papers, and their final drafts have been submitted to OTA. OTA staff have made final editorial revisions of each paper. OTA staff are preparing an analysis of the workshop papers and workshop discussions as well as comments from outside reviewers. In addition, a second paper on chemicals from marine plants was commissioned, reviewed, and revised for inclusion in the final report. Project Director: Susan Braatz/Walter Parham, 6-2264 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: April 1983
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" : -31 -12. EV.ALUATION OF VETERANS ADMINISTRATION AGENT ORANGE PROTOCOL -As mandated by PL 96-151, reviews the VA's epidemiologic studies regarding long-term health effects of veterans exposed to dioxins in Vietnam. Mandated by PL 96-151. Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: Federal government activities toward understanding possible long-term health effects resulting from exposure to Agent Orange changed direction in November and December. In response to continued criticism (including OTA's) that the VA was not moving ahead appropriately in its evaluation, the Veterans' Administration agreed to have the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) design and execute the epidemiologic study. Irt January 1983, CDC prep.ared an outline describing how it plans to carry out its responsiblities. CDC's plan differs from previous protocols in calling for two separate, concurrent studies: one study will address the possible long-term health effects of exposure to Agent Orange; the second will look at the more general question of possible health effects associated with the "Viet Nam" experience. OTA received a copy of the outline in February, and submitted a favorable review to Congress in March. CDC is currently completing the planning for the two studies. Full-scale activity on the studies should begin after the full complement of staff necessary for the studies is hired, following approval of the transfer of positions from the VA to CDC which occurred in late March. OTA staff continue to participate as observers in the Cabinet Council Agent Orange Working Group. Project Director: Michael Gough, 6-2070 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: Indeterminate
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.... .... -.. ... -32 -13. HEALTH AND SAFETY CONTROL TECHNOLOGIES IN THE WORKPLACE -Will develop options for:-i.mproving data aboutworkplace accidents and illnesses; aiding developm~nt of appropriate technologies and their diffusion, application and evaluation; and making health and saf~ty _control technologies av&iiable to small firms at a reasonable price. -~Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin G Hatch, Chairman House Committee on Education and Labor Hon. George Miller, Chairman, Subcommittee on Labor Standards House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: Work in-house has proceeded on: evaluation of the effectiveness of personal protective equipment in the workplace, .economic incentives to control workplace hazards, reindustrialization and workplace safety and health, collective bargaining for safety and health, and occupational epidemiology. Contractor reports on a number of topics have been received and reviewed. Reports from three contractors dealing wtih aspects of economic decision frameworks, particularly the role of cost/benefit analysis in occupational safety and health regulation, have been through review and revision. Following advisory panel review, these wll be issued as a separate Background Paper before the full assessment in completed. Reports in progress focus on: the effect of OSHA' s 197 revised lead regulation on worker exposure, ergonomics and worker safety, the recent hi-story of occupational safety and health in the United States, and worker education and training. Project Director: Michael Gough, 6-2070 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: September 1983 ., ,!; ..
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33 -14. MEDICAL TECHNOLOGY AND COSTS OF THE MEDICARE PROGRAM The costs of the Medicare program have been rising rapidly, and medical technology is a prime component of this increase. The project will analyze a broad range of mechanisms to reduce or limit Medicare costs related to medical technology --from changes in reimbursement mechanisms to control of. particular technological .services. Interim Deliverables The Effectiveness and Costs of Alcoholism Treatment (Case Study) Examines the evidence on alcoholism treatment in a variety of settings (in-patient care, out-patient hospital care, community based treatment centers, etc.) as well as the effectiveness of various methods of treatment (chemical aversion therapy, group therapy, and Alcoholics Anonymous). (Case Study published March 1983) (Requester: Senate Committee on Finance, Subcommittee on Health) The Implications of Variations in Length of Hospital Stay (Case Study) Examines the evidence on how variations in length of hospital stay affect patient outcomes and the implications of changes in length of stay for quality of care, access, and Medicare/Medicaid program costs. (Requester: Senate Committee on Finance, Subcommittee on Health) The Safety, Efficacy and Cost Effectiveness of Apheresis (Case Study) -The conditions for which the benefits and risks of therapeutic plasmapheresis (a costly procedure which is being used to treat an increasing number of medical conditions) have been demonstrated will be determined. (Requester: Senate Committee on Finance, Subcommittee on Health) Diagnostic Related Groups: Implications for Medical Technology -This Technical Memorandum will examine DRG's, their potential use in the Medicare payment system, and the potential impact on medical technology use. It will also describe New Jersey's experience with diagnostic related groups, a method of prospective hospital reimbursement, and the cost implications for national implementation. (Requester: House Committee on Energy and Commerce, and the Subcommittee on Health and Environment) The Efficacy and Cost Effectiveness of Continuous Ambulatory Peritoneal Dialysis (CAPD) -This Case Study will assess the growing use of CAPD in terms of its costs, risks, and benefits. (Requester: Senate Committee on Finance)
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34 .;. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Hon. Henry A. Waxman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health an4 Environment Senate Committee on Appropriations Hon. Dennis DeConcini, Member Hon. Gordon J HU.mphrey, Chairman, Subcommittee on Alcoholism and 'Drug Abuse Senate Committee on Finance Ron. Bob Dole, Chairman Hon. Dave Durenberger, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health Hon. Max Baucus, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Health Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: During the second quarter, staff prepared background documents for the interim report to be completed early in the next quarter. The second advisory panel meeting was held on March 22., 1983. A major discussion topic was the draft Technical Memorandum entitled, "Diagnosis Related Groups (DRG's) and the Medicare Program: Implications for Medical Technology," which combined staff work with a case study on DRG's and prospective payment and was supplemented by the description of the New Jersey systems of hospital payment. The final version will be available in the next quarter after revision based on reviews from external experts. Approximately 80 persons received copies of the draft, and reviews are being compiled now. Work has also progressed on the other interim deliverables. The Case Study, Effectiveness and Costs of Alcoholism Treatment, was released by the requesting Committee on March 31. The final draft of the study on The Safety, Efficacy, and Cost Effectiveness of Apheresis has been submitted, and the final draft on The Implications of Variations in Length of Hospital Stay will be submitted shortly. A contract for a Case Study on the Efficacy and Cost Effectivenss of Continuous Ambulatory Peritoneal Dialysis (CAPD) was let. The draft should be ready for review in May. Project Director: Anne Kesselman Burns, 6-2070 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: August 1983
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35 -15. FEDERAL.POLICIES AND THE MEDICAL DEVICES INDUSTRY -This assessment will fill some of the gaps in the basic information about the medical devices industry and analyze implications of alternative Federal policies. The study will develop information about the nature of firms that manufacture medical technologies, conduct case studies of selected medical devices, and examine pre_sent and proposed Federal policies that influence the medical devices industry and, in turn; the cost and effectiveness of medical devices. Interim Deliverables: Six medical devices have been selected for detailed case study: Boston elbow, contact lenses, hemodialysis equipment, nuclear magnetic resonance, technologies for managing urinary incontinence, and wheelchairs. These devices perform different functions in medicine (diagnosis~ treatment, and rehabilitation) and relate to different areas of policy (research and development, patents, premarketing approval, third-party payment, and government procure~ent). In addition, a Technical Memorandum, Procurement and Evaluation of Medical Devices by the Veterans Administration, will examine the policies of the Veterans Administration regarding the evaluation and purchase of medical-devices. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Chairman Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs Hon. Alan K. Sim,pson, Chairman Hon. Alan Cranston, Ranking Minority Member Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: The second meeting of the advisory panel was held March 3, 1983, to discuss the draft status report, which had been sent for their review. ,The draft status report presents the information that has been gathered and the issues identified during the early part of the study. The panel discussion centered on regulation of medical devices by the Food and Drug Administration. After revision, the draft status report will be conveyed to interested Congressional Committees. A separate Technical Memorandum on the procurement and evaluation of medical devices by the Veterans Administration will be prepared as part of the overall assessment. This technical information on the procedures of the Veterans Administration will be used for the sections of the final report that consider policies of the Veterans Administration. Contracts were let for Case Studies on the Boston elbow and on hemodialysis equipment. Proposals were also requested for the four other Case Studies. Project Director: Jane E. Sisk, 6-2070 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: March 1984
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36 -16. COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT OF BIOTECHNOLOGY "Biotechnology" refers to the use of biological techniques such as recombinant DNA technology, cell fusion, fermentation, and enzyme technology to produce chemicals, pharmaceuticals, or other substances, to improve the quality of life. or improve the characteristics of economically important plants and animals. The assessment will evaluate the evolving competitive position of the U.S. with other nations. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Bob Packwood, Chairman, co-signed by Hon. Harrison H. Schmitt, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Chairman House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman, (also expressing the particular interest of Hon. Doug Walgren, Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Research, and Technology, and Hon. Albert Gore, Jr., Chairman, Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight) Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: The majority of the writing of this report took place in this quarter. A complete working draft will be completed on May 1. A briefing on the scope of the a.ssessment to the Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space, of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, was conducted on March 11, I 983. Project Director: Nanette Newell, 6-2090 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: July 1983
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-37 -17. IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY ON AGING IN AMERICA Improved health care and increased understanding of the physiology of aging, as well as applications of computers, robotics, and telecommunications in the home arid workplace, may increase the independence, productivity, and quality of life for the aging American population. This study will assess the impact. of technology on hea-lth -and lifesciences, employment, and housing and public service, and make international comparisons of responses to elderly populations (within the industrialized world). Request or-Affirmation of Interest: Senate Special Committee on Aging Hon. John Heinz, Chairman Hon. Lawton Chiles, then Ranking Mirto~ity Member House Select Committee -on Aging Hon. Claude Pepper, then Chairman; still Member Hon. Matthew Rinaldo, Ranking Minori~y Member_ House Committee on Education and Labor Hon. Carl D~ Perkins, Chairman Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: o Workshop on the Impact of Technology on Long-term Care was held February 16-18, 1983. Co~sponsors include National Academy of Sciences, Project Hope, Inc., and National Helath Policy Forum, George Washington University. o Discussions were held with staff of new Chairmen and Ranking Minority Members of the requesting committees. o An advisory panel meeting was held on January 24, 1983. Project Director: David McCallum, 6-2090 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: January 1984
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38 Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division 18. COMPUTERIZED FACTORY AUTOMATION: EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION, AND THE WORKPLACE The objectives of this assessment will be to: (a) assess trends and the state of R&D in computerized manufacturing technologies over this decade; (b) assess the development of industries producing computerized manufacturing equipment, software, and services; (c) assess the potential utility of computerized automation for various categories of manufacturing industries that might use it; (d) assess impacts on employment --job loss, job creation, job ~edefinition; new skill needs; and wo-rkplace quality; (e) assess implications for education and training, for general technological literacy, for specialized vocational skills, and for scientific and engineering expertise; and (f) analyze the impacts of Federal policy optionson the development and use of computerized automation systems in U.S. manufacturing. Automation and the Workplace: Selected Labor, Education, and Training Issues (Technical Memorandum) -(Requesters same as for full assessment) Discusses concepts for evaluating the impacts of manufacturing automation, and describes the conduct of education, training, and retraining for persons seeking or holding jobs in manufacturing industries. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation Hon. Bob Packwood, Chairman Hon. Harrison H. Schmitt, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Chairman Hon. Dan Quayle, Chairman, Subcommittee on Employment and Productivity Joint Economic Committee Hon. Roger w. Jepsen, then Vice Chairman, now Chairman Hon. Henry s. Reuss, then Chairman House Committee on Education,and Labor Hon. George Miller, Chairman, Subcommittee on Labor Standards House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: 0 0 A Technical Memorandum, Automation and the Workplace: Selected Labor, Education, and Training Issues, was released at a Joint Economic Committee hearing on March 18, during which OTA testified. On March 23, an Automation Industries Workshop comprised of industry analysts discussed issues in the structure and competitive conduct of industries producing programmable automation products. Project Director: Marjory Blumenthal, 6-2182 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: October 1983
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-39 -19. EFFECTS OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ON FINANCIAL SERVICES SYSTEMS The objectives of the assessment are to: (a) describe the current status of the financial services industry, (b) forecast the technologies that may be used for the delivery-of financial services, (c) issues the potential impacts of the applicable technologie$ on the evaluation of the financial services industry, (d) identify the mechanisms through which policy relative to the-financial services industry could be delivered~ Requesters: House Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs Hon. Fernand J. St Germain, Chairman llon. J. William Stanton, then Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Hon. James T. Broyhill, Ranking Minority Member Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Hon. Jake Garn, Chairman Hon. Donald W. Riegle, then Ranking Minority Member Highlights of the Second Quarter 1983: During the second quarter of 1983, substantive analytical work for the assessment was well underway. In-house staff was primarily engaged in developing a description of the retail side of the financial services industry as it e~ists today. Arthur D. Little, Inc., was put under contract to identify the technologies that will be available in the 1988 to 1993 time frame and suggest the financial services that would be technologically feasible in that period. The ICS Group, Inc., has been under contract to develop a pic~ure of the wholesale side of the financial services industry. Draft material from both of these contracts has been reviewed, commented upon, and returned to the contractors for modifications. Briefings on the status of the assessment for all of the requesting Committees have been scheduled for April 1983. Project Director: Zalman Shavell, 6-2036 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: November 1983
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40 20. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT --Assesses future patterns of research and development in information technologies (i.e., telecommunication and computers) to 1) characterize current information technology R&D activities by U.S. and selected foreign entities; 2) analyze impacts of expected changes in industry, Federal policy, competition and technology on U.S. R&D; 3) assess the effects of changing R&D patterns on future U.S. competitivertess; and 4) identify alternative Federal policies for encouraging R&D in the information technologies. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon. Larry Winn, Jr., Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Energy and Com.mer.ce Hon. John Dingell, Chairman Hon. James T. Broyhill, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Timothy E. Wirth, Chairman, Subcommittee on Telecommunications, Consumer Protection, and Finance Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: o The project advisory panel has been formed. Their first meeting was held on February 3, 1983. The scope of the project was defined and major issues were discussed. o Contracts have been awarded in the areas of manpower and governmental roles in information technology R&D, and a technology survey contract is about to be awarded. Project Director: Donna L. Valtri, 6-2240 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: February 1984
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-41 -21. ASSESSMENT OF APPROACHES TO WETLANDS USE -Will evaluate the effects of technological activities on wetlands; options for mitigating undesirable impacts; the functional values of different types of wetlands; benefit/cost of technological activities in wetlands against the functional values of the wetlands that may be lost; and various approaches to wetlands use. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Hon. Robert T. Stafford, Chairman, co-signed by Hon. John H. Chafee, Chairman, Subcommittee on Environmental Pollution Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: The OTA staff synthesized information collected during the study and refined the analysis of policy options that the 98th Congress may wish to consider during this. session. A revised chapter on wetland values and functions was sent to the National Wetlands Technical Council for review and comments. We also met with Congressional staff from the requesting Committee to brief them on the results and findings of the study. The latter part of the quarter was spent preparing testimony for hearings of the 'requesting Committee that are scheduled for April 14, 1983. Project Director: Bill Barnard, 6-2054 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: April 1983
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42 -22. MARITIME TRADE AND TECHNOLOGY -A number of significant changes in Federal maritime policy have been recently proposed or implemented in an effort to reduce subsidies, eliminate unnecessary regulation, and provide a more competitive and productive economic en~ironment. While these goals are broadly supported, it is not clear which methods will be most effective for achieving them, and, at the same time, maintaining an adequate industrial base. This study will analyze the status of the U.S. technology in shipping and shipbuilding and compare trends in maritime trade with national and international maritime policies. Requesters: House Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries Hon. Walter B. Jones, Chairman Hon. Mario Biaggi, Chairman, Subcommittee on Merchant Marine House Committee on Ways and Means Hon. Sam M. Gibbons, Chairman, Subcommittee on Trade Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: The second advisory panel meeting met on February 18, 1983, to.review contractor reports, to discuss the structure and presentation of the final report, and to discuss policy options. The project staff had numerous meetings with sister agencies (CBO, GAO) to exchange data and information that has been developed by each agency. Project Director: Peter Johnson, 6-2066 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: September 1983
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43 -23. TECHNOLOGIES TO MEASURE, MONITOR, AND MITIGATE GROUNDWATER CONTAMINATION -Groundwater contamination that can be attributed to human activity is being detected nation-wide and with increasing frequency, and it can have serious and long-lasting impacts on human health, the environment, and local and regional economies. Because the conditions that have been identified as giving rise to groundwater contamination are so pervasive, there is a growing national concern about the amount of contamination that has yet to be detected and the vulnerability of this national resource to still further degradation. This study would provide a comprehensive technical framework to assist the Congress in understanding and addressing the major groundwater contamination issues facing the nation. These issues would relate to the"process" of contamination, from its occurrence and detection, to its associated impacts, mitigation, and/or management. Proposed issues to be examined include determining the extent and nature of the nation's groundwater contamination, characterizing the transport and fate of contaminants, monitoring, information management, and mitigating groundwater contamination. Key federal policy options would also be addressed. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Hon. Robert T. Stafford, Chairman Hon. Jennings Randolph, Ranking Minority Member Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: This assessment was approved by TAB on February 23, 1983. As a first order of business, the proposed study plan was reviewed by the staff of the requesting Committee. The project staff then began developing contacts and identifying the range of interests that would both affect and be affected by the issues covered in this study. Based on these discussions, advisory panel memebers were selected and met for the first time on March 17 and 18. The panel members reviewed OTA's project plans and identified and discussed key policy issues and concerns. The panel also reviewed a substantive working document prepared by OTA staff in preparation for the panel meeting. The remainder of the quarter, the project staff began the process of formulating and organizing the ~cope and content of this study. Project Director: Paula Stone, 6-2004 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: December.1983
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44 24. AIRPORT SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT This study will assess the technologies to be applied to increase capacity or improve service at airports as well as the funding and institutional mechanisms by which the technologies can be deployed and brought to bear on the problems of civil aviation. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Public Works and Transportation Hon. James J. Howard, Chairman Hon. Norman Y. Mineta, Chairman, Subcommittee on Aviation Senate Committee on the Budget Hon. Pete V. Domenici, Chairman Hon. Ernest F. Hollings, then Ranking Minority Member; still Member Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: The advisory panel has been divided into four working groups: Technology, Planning, Funding, and Airport Operations and Use. Separate meetings with each working group were held in January and February. Close liaison has been maintained with CBO, whose analysis of airport funding needs and financing mechanisms will form an integral part of the OTA final report. The project staff has held several meetings with FAA staff members from the Office of Airport Planning and Programming and the Office of System Engineering to discuss technological developments and the progress of the National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems. Three contracts have been issued for: 1) analysis of technology to relieve airport capacity problems; 2) analysis of air service trends, airline_route structure, and patterns of airport use; and 3) critique of forecasting methodology. Project Director: Larry Jenney, 6-2177 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: July 1983
PAGE 49
45 -25. CIVILIAN SPACE STATIONS With completion of the pre-operational phase of the Shuttle program, NASA is now actively considering another major civilian space program: a space station or permanent manned presence in space. Such a program has been described as the next logical step in space for the U.S. The quarter century since the space age's commencement has seen fundamental changes in the public perception of and ~mbitions for our continuing civil presence in space --changes brought about to a great extent by the extradordinary success of earlier space programs. Therefore, it is important that Congressional debate on any such program not only draw upon sound and comprehensive scientific and engineering information, but that financial, economic, international, military, and broad national security factors also be given careful consideration in the context of today's circumstances. This assessmemt will be designed and conducted to illuminate all of these important considerations so as to help ensure that the debate will be well informed on all important contemporary issues. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Appropriations Hon. Jake Garn, Chairman, Subcommittee on HUD-Independent Agencies (endorsement) Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation Hon. Bob Packwood, Chairman Hon. Howard N. Cannon, t11en Ranking Minority Member Hon. Harrison Schmitt, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Technology and Space House Committee on the Budget Hon. James R. Jones, Chairman House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon. Ronnie G. Flippo, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Space Science and Applications
PAGE 50
46 -Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: Workshops were held on the u.s; experience with Skylab and on the subject of extending the Shuttle Orbiter's time in orbit. Studies now underway deal with: (a) major uses of any space station; (b) the space community's aspirations for space stations; (c) descriptions of basic station technological and operational characteristics; and (d) multinational and international considerations. Most of the assessment's advisory panel members and chairman have been identified and have agreed to serve. Project Director: Tom Rogers, 6-2175 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: February 1984
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-47 -26. TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION, AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT -This assessment will investigate the role of fast-growing ''hightechnology" industries in regional economic development. These industries, engaged in the systematic development and commercialization of new products and processes, are an important factor in U.S. competitiveness and a major source of new manufacturing jobs. The study will (1) determine where high-technology fi~ms are appearing and the factors that affect their creation and growth; (2) identify and evaluate the effectiveness of State and local initiatives to encourage innovation and high-technology development; (3) explore the changing opportunities presented by emerging technologies such as robotics and bioengineering; and (4) address the appropriate Federal role in affecting the conditions for such growth in the future. Census of State Government Initiatives Programs fQP HighTechnology Industrial Development (Background Paper) -Report will identify dedicated State government programs for high-technology firms. State and Local Initiatives for High-Technology Industrial Development (Technical Memorandum) -Report will present information on the role of State and local high-technology development programs, as well as survey results bearing on the design, effectiveness, and transferability of selected State programs. Patterns of High-Technology Industrial Development (Technical Memorandum) -Report will discuss factors affecting creation, growth, and location of high-tech firms and will present statistical data on patterns of geographical distribution in different high-tech industries. Requesters: House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon. Doug Walgren, Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Research, and Technology House Committee on Small Business Hon. Parren J. Mitchell, Chairman House Task Force on Industrial Innovation and Productivity Hon. Stanley Lundine, Chairman Joint Economic Committee Hon. Henry s. Reuss, then Chairman
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48 -Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: The census of State government initiatives for hightechnology industrial development has now been completed and reviewed. The Background Paper incorporating these results is expected to be released in April. Additional studies were initiated on local government and business development initiatives, as well as on policy issues at State and National levels. Results of these studies, along with staff studies of university programs, will be published in June. Project Director: Paul B. Phelps, 6-2173 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: March 1984
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49 27. U.S. PASSENGER RAIL TECHNOLOGIES -The recent announcement by the newly formed, privately chartered American High Speed Rail Corp. of its planned $2 billion high-speed passenger rail corridor between Los Angeles and San Diego has stimulated existing Congressional interest in the introduction of high-speed and other advanced rail technologies, including Magnetic Levitation, in the United States. This interest is also reflected in the growing number of private and publicly funded feasibility studies of these technologies in selected regions and transportation corridors. OTA will assess these intercity passenger rail technologies and the potential impacts of their introduction in the United States. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committe~ on Appropriations Hon. Jamie L. Whitten, Chairman Hon. William Lehman, then Acting Chairman, Subcommittee on Transportation Appropriations; now Chairman Hon. Lawrence Coughlin, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Transportation Appropriations House Committee on Energy_ and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Hon. James J. Florio, Chairman, Subcommittee on Commerce, Transportation, and Tourism Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Bob Packwood, Chairman Hon. Howard N. Cannon, then Ranking Minority Member Highlights for the Second quarter 1983: Three workshops bringing experts from across the U.S. were held in early March, to review information gathered to date and to discuss pertinent issues. Workshop topics included: (1) railcar manufacturing; (2) magnetic levitation; and (3) demand, economic, and instutional considerations of high speed rail applications. A questionnaire was also sent to the states to ascertain their plans for high .speed rail. Information from the workshops and all other sources is now being incorporated into the assessment. Project Director: Lucia Turnbull, 6-2356 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: May 1983
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50 -SPECIAL RESPONSES 28. THE INFORMATION CONTENT OF PREMANUFACTURING NOTICES (Background Paper) -This study assesses the extent to which current premanufacturing notice submissions either fulfill or compromise efforts to perform the preventive health and environmental protection mandate of the Toxic Substances Control Act. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. James J. Florio, Chairman, Subcommittee on Commerce, Transportation, and Tourism 29. HABITABILITY ISSUES RELATED TO LOVE CANAL -In May 1982, the U.S. EPA published a report aobut its $5.4 million hazardous substances environmental monitoring program at Love Canal, New York. Based upon the report, which was reviewed by a multidisciplinary team of consultants for several federal agencies; the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services judged the area to be "as habitable as the control areas with which it was compared." OTA will critically review the habitability decision. OTA has defined five tasks to be carried out in that review. Task I is to assess the monitoring study. OTA will focus on four aspects of the study to determine how well it describes the extent and degree of environmental contamination in the study area. Task II is to assess the remedial action completed or planned for the Love Canal area. This task will focus on potential migration of highly concentrated hazardous wastes from Love Canal. Task III is to assess the potential health effects likely to be caused by exposure to the hazardous materials detected in the study area near Love Canal. Task IV is to assess the habitability decision from the perspective of information synthesized in Tasks I-III. OTA will evaluate the standards of habitability used in the decisionmaking process; where the burden of proof of habitability lies; nd whether best or, at least, adequate information was used as the basis for the decision. Task V will analyze the policy implications of the Love Canal case for other potential Superfund cases. Request of Affirmation of Interest: Hon. Alfonse D'Amato, Senator from New York Hon. Daniel Moynihan, Senator from New York
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-51 -30. ANALYSIS OF THE NUCLEAR WASTE POLICY ACT OF 1982 -This effort is a response to a request for an analysis of the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 from the perspective of the findings of OTA's study of commercial high-level radioactive waste management. This analysis will review the major provisions of the Act, using as a framework the key elements of a comprehensive nuclear waste management policy identified in the Summary of OTA's assessment published in April 1982. It will discuss the implications of the findings of OTA's study for the implementation of the Act, and will identify and discuss those issues that remain to be resolved through the oversight process or subsequent legislation. Request of Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Rules Hon. John Joseph Moakley, Chairman,. Subcommittee on Rules of the House 31. INFORMATION POLICY WORKSHOP -An information policy workshop will be held to help OTA identify and rank a range of issues relating to information policy and to analyze a variety of national institutional arrangements that might be established to address them. Request of Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Doug Walgren, Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Research, and Technology 32. TECHNOLOGY AND ~AST-WEST TRADE UPDATE The Export Administration Act of 1979 expires in September 1983, and must be renewed and/or modified. In support of this effort, OTA has reviewed the application of export controls since 1979 and the new information which has become available regarding Soviet military use of Western technology. The updated summarizes this material and discusses how the policy issues can be framed in the light of these events and this information. Because the update contains a substantial amount of new policy analysis, it is being submitted to TAB for review prior to delivery to the requesting Committee. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Hon. Jake Garn, Chairman Hon. Donald W. Riegle, Ranking MinorityMember
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-52 -33. POLYGRAPH VALIDITY AND RELIABILITY -The purpose of the study is to conduct an evaluation of the scientific validity and reliability of the polygraph. The evaluation will be based on a critical review of all relevant prior research and will identify any gaps in existing research and needs for further research. The study began on March 21, 1983, and has been coordinated with other interested Committees in both the House and the Senate. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Government Operations Hon. Jack Brooks, Chairman Hon. Frank Horton, Ranking Minority Member
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53 B. IN PRESS AS OF 3/31/83 34. INDUSTRIAL ENERGY USE -This project is designed to examine a series of four .American industries (pulp and paper, steel, petroleum refining, and organic chemical production) for their potential to use energy more efficiently, and to predict the impact of selected legislative options on energy use and efficiency within those industries. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Finance Hon. Malcolm Wallop, Chairman, Subcommittee on Energy and Agricultural Taxation House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Hon. James T. Broyhill, Ranking Minority Member Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: The final draft has been completed and reviewed by the Assistant Director and Director. The report was submitted to TAB on March 11, 1983. The report is now in the process of being printed. Project Director: James Ryan, 6-2133 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: Delivered; in press.
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54 -35. IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY ON COMPETITIVENESS OF THE U.S. ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY -Explores the factors that determine the competitiveness of the U.S. electronics industry vis-a-vis Japanese and Western European firms, including among the factors the effects of Federal policies. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Bob Packwood, Chairman Joint Economic Committee Hon. Henry S. Reuss, Chairman Hon. Roger w. Jepsen, Vice Chairman House Committee on Ways and Means Hon. Sam M. Gibbons, Chairman, Subcommittee on Trade Hon. Guy Vander Jagt, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Trade Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: Preparation for publication by the Government Printing Office began with nearly half the report set in type by year's end. We now expect GPO publication in Apri 1. Project Director: John Alic, 6-2012
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-55 36._ U.S. FOOD AND AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH: AGRICULTURE POSTHARVEST TECHNOLOGY AND MARKETING ECONOMICS RESEARCH (Technical Memorandum) -This Technical Memorandum is related to OTA's published assessment on U.S. Food.and Agricultural Research. It examines the role of the public sector. in postharvest technology and marketing research. It describes the development of the public sector research effort; measures the cost, benefits, burdens, and quality of the research; presents guidelines for the public and private research participants; and evaluates the public sector management and policy programs. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Agriculture Hon. E. (Kika) de la Garza, Chairman Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: Technical Memorandum data were updated, all material edited, and it is now in press. Draft has been used by the House Agriculture and Senate Appropriations Committees, and the USDA for determinations of the level of PHT _research in the 1984 budget.
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56 -37. THE ROLE OF GENETIC TESTING IN THE PREVENTION OF OCCUPATIONAL DISEASE-Will examine these controversial techniques proposed as means to identify high-risk individuals and environments where there is exposure to chemicals in the workplace. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman, for Hon. Albert Gore, Jr., Chairman, Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: The report is in press and is projected to be released in May. Project Director: Jeff Karny, 6-2090
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57 -38. PATENTS AND THE COMMERCIALIZATION OF NEW TECHNOLOGY -Assesses the operation (procurement, use, enforcement) and administration of the patent system with respect to its effect on new technological enterprises. Patent Term Restoration Report (Published in August 1980) -Investigates extending patent terms for pharmaceuticals and the impact. on innovation and society. Requester: Hon. Peter~. Rodino, Chairman, House Committee on the Judiciary. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on the Judiciary Hon. Strom Thurmond, Chairman House Committee on the Judiciary Hon. Peterw. Rodino, Jr., Chairman House Committee on Small Business Hon. Neal Smith, then Chairman Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: Printing of this report and delivery to the requesting committees has been delayed due to the departure of the original Project Director before completion of final editing and publication. The report is now expected to be in print by early June. Acting Project Director: John Andelin, 6-2253
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58 -39. MANAGING HIGH-LEVEL COMMERCIAL RADIOACTIVE WASTE (Summary published; Full Report scheduled for Publishing in January 1983) Analyzes the techniques and procedures for the safe disposal of commercial high-level radioactive waste and evaluates a range of disposal strategies. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Howard W. Cannon, then Chairman Hon. Ernest F. Hollings, then Vice Chairman, National Ocean Policy Study; now Ranking Minority of the Committee Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Hon. Henry M. Jackson, then Chairman House Committee on Foreign Affairs Hon. Clement J. Zablocki, Chairman House Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries Hon. John B. Breaux, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Oceanography House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: The project director of this study met with the project director for the GAO annual audit of the DOE radioactive waste management program that was mandated by the Nuclear Waste Policy Act. In conducting this audit, GAO would like to draw upon OTA' s extensive background in waste management. Testimony was delivered to the House Committee on Science and Technology on the DOE radioactive waste management budget. Project Director: Tom Cotton, 6-2132
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59 -40. IMPACTS OF ATMOSPHERIC ALTERATIONS -Develops a range.of impact scenarios of the social, economic, and environmental consequences of atmospheric changes caused by long-range transport of air pollutants, e.g., acid rain, and photochemical oxidants. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Hon. Robert T. Stafford, Chairman Hon. Jennings Randolph, Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Hon. Henry A. Waxman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health and Environment Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: 1. The draft final report, The Regional Implications of Transported Air Pollutants, was reviewed by the Technology Assessment Board and released for final edit and publication. (Now expected about June 1983.) 2. A staff memorandum on air pollution control cost models and several acid rain-related articles were prepared for the House Committee on Energy andcommerce. 3. Continued interest in our work generated several requests for conference talks and informal presentations, including: o Wingspread Conference on Acid Rain o Center for Negotiation and Public Policy Acid Rain Committee Project Director: Robert Friedman, 6-2131
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60 41. TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION AND'HEALTH, SAFETY, AND ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS Weighs whether Federal regulatory policies encourage or discourage private innovation in the achievement of health, safety, environmental and economic goals. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportati.on Hon. Bob Packwood, Chairman Hon. Howard Cannon, then Chairman Hon. Wendell H. Ford, then Chairman, Subcommittee on the Consumer; now Ranking Minority Member Hon. Adlai E. Stevenson, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Technology and Space Highlights for the Second Quarter 1983: This assessment is in the final editing stages before going to press. Publication by GPO is expected in late spring. Project Director: John Young, 6-2060
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-61 -II. E. 3. Project Advisory Panel Meetings or Workshops Held 1 01/06/83 2. 01/11/83 3. 01/24/83 4. 01/25/83 5. 01/25/83 6. 02/03/83 7. 02/17/83 8. 02/18/83 9. 02/28/83 i'o. 03/01/83 11. 03/02/83 12. 03/03/83 13. 03/04/83 14. 03/7-8/83 15. 03/14/83 16. 03/17/83 17. 3/17-18/83 18. 03/22/83 19. 03/23/83 20. 3/23-24/83 21. 03/24/83 22. 3/29-30/83 23. 03/31/83 Technologies to Reduce U.S. Materials Import Vulnerability Airport System Development (Working Group on Aiport Operations and Use) Impacts of Technology on Aging in America Airport System Development (Working Group on Planning) Civilian Space Stations (Skylab Workshop) Information Technology Research and Development Airport System Development (Working Group on Technology) Maritime Trade and Technology U.S. Passenger Rail Technologies (Workshop on Railcar Technology) U.S. Passenger Rail Technologies (Workshop on Magnetic Levitation) Technology Transfer to the Middle East Federal Policies and the Medical Devices Industry U.S. Passenger Rail Technologies (Workshop on Demand, Economic, and Institutional Considerations of High Speed Rail) Technologies to Sustain Tropical Forest Resources Strategic Command, Control, Communications, and Intelligence Systems Strategic Responses to an Extended Oil Disruption Technologies to Measure, Monitor, and Mitigate Groundwater Contamination Medical Technology and Costs of the Medicare Prog:am Computerized Factory Automation, Employment, Education, and the Workplace (Producer Industries Workshop) Policy, Technology, and the Structure of Agriculture U.S. Natural Gas Availability Water-Related Technologies for Sustaini-ng Agriculture in U.S. Arid/Semiarid Lands Wood in the U.S. Economy
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-62 -III. External Activities A. External Publications by OTA Staff Adkins, Douglas L., "Forecasting Transportation Demand for Petroleum: A New Generation of Econometric Models of Highway and Airline Industry Fuel Use," (presented at Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, January 18, 1983). Gibbons, John H., "Technology Assessment Comes of Age," Environment Magazine, January/February 1983. Gough, Michael, "Assessment of Technologies for Determining Cancer Risk From the Environment," J.ournal of American Toxicology, Vol. 2: 19-27, January 1983. .~ Hirschhorn, Joel, ''Mini-Mills: A Future for Steel," The Baltimore ~, February 18, 1983. Weingarten, Fred W., "Information Technology and Privacy: Trends in Products and Services," Human Rights, Vol. 10(3), Autumn 1982. Weingarten, Fred W., "Transborder Data Flow," American Banker, February 3, 1983. Williamson, Ray, "Space Science in the International Community," (paper presented at the 161st Meeting of the American Astronomical Society, January 1983). Wood, Fred B., "The Status of Technology Assessment: Congressional Office of Technology Assessment," Forecasting and Social Change, Nov./Dec. 1982. A. View From the Technological
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-63 -III. B. Visits to OTA by Foreign Officials, Groups Country Australia Brazil England France Finland Germany Hungary Visitors Coleen McMahon Researcher Institute of Health Economics and Technology Assessment Jose Monterio Professor University of Sao Paolo Christopher Karas Special Consultant The Rubber and Plastics Research Association of Great Britain Bertrand Decheeuy Vice President of Telesis, Consultant to EC Commission Jean-Pierre Letouzey Science Attache French Embassy Anne Viret Director of Technology Transfer ANVAR Joana Muurinen Consultant Ministry of Health Dr. Udo Pollvogt Reporter Erno-USA; and Herr Horst Hessler Managing Director Transrapid International Dietmar Frenzel Science and Technology Counselor German Embassy Balazs Botos Hungarian Academy of Science Topic(s) Medical Technology Asessment; Organization and Operation of OTA Coal and Synfuels R&D programs; general overview of OTA Industrial policy Information Technology R&D Patterns of regional technology, innovation, and R&D in France Technology assessment potentials; economic evaluation of medical technology Magnetic levitation Space stations Industrial policy
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Japan Netherlands Nigeria OECD Poland Sweden 64 -Dr. Koichi Iio, Senior Economist, and Mrs. Eiki Shinozuka, Staff Economist, the Japanese Economic Research Center; Mitsutoshi Koyama, Manager, Economic Research Department, The Mitsui Bank, Ltd.; Kohji Shioka, Manager, General Survey Section, LongRange Planning Division, Nippon Electric Company, Ltd.; Ikuro Namiki, Manager, Washington, D.C., Office, and Toshi Nishizawa, Economist, Tokyo Electric Power Company; Mr. Yuiichi Hibi, U.S. EscortInterpreter Shu Ichikawa Mitsui, Inc. Dr. Willem Albeda Dean, Department of Economics, University of Limburg, and Member, First Chamber of Parliament Dr. Sheriff Ajibade Adetunjo Dean, Department of Technology Transfer and Science Education, Federal Ministry of Science and Technology Hans Peter Gassman Head, Information, Computer, and Communications Policy Mr. Jan Brukszo Science Counselor Polish Embassy J. Hannerz AS EA-ATOM Dr. Jonsson Professor, University of Stockholm Peter Dockerty and Members of the Data Delegation, Swedish Commission on Information Policy Changes in the economy as a result of technological advancements OTA's relations with Congress Economics of technology and labor R&D in agriculture; development of science and technology information systems Information policy Automation development and use Ultra-safe reactors Cost-effectivenss analysis Information Policy
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Syria -65 -Dr. Ali Adel Kayali, Chairman, Electrical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Aleppo University; Dr. Salman Najin Al Saghbini, Chairman, Mechanical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Aleppo University; Dr. Ahmed Faisal Asfari, Vice Dean for Academic Affairs, Faculty of Engineering, Aleppo University Technology transfer
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Publication Briefs
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OTA REPORT BRIEF March 1983 Technologies and Management Strategies for Hazardous Waste Control The Envirorunentai Protection Agency's (EPA) regu lations do not assure consistent nationwide levels of protection for human health from the potential effects of massive annual accumulations of hazardous waste. These regulations for hazardous waste management do not effectively detect, prevent, or control the release of toxic substances into the environment, particularly over the longer term. Yet every year 1 metric ton (tonne) of hazardous waste is added to the environ ment for every individual in the Nation. Moreover, financial restraints and lack of technical resources will make it difficult for States to fulfill their increased responsibility for waste management policy. Industry and government are spending $4 billion to $5 billion annually to manage the approximately 250 million tonnes of regulated hazardous waste generated each year. The annual costs are expected to rise to more than $12 billion (in 1981 dollars) in 1990. Some States have stricter definitions for hazardous waste than the Federal program, which regulates about 40 million tonnes annually. As their responsibilities mount, States fear reduc tions in Federal support and seek a stronger policy role. States sometimes cannot raise even the required minimum 10 percent of initial Superfund cleanup costsand they must assume all future operation and main tenance costs. Because there are no specific Federal technical stand ards for determining the extent of Superfund cleanup, and because there is an incentive under EPA rules to minimize initial costs, remedial actions may be taken that will prove ineffective in the long term. Much of the $10 billion to $40 billion which will be needed for cleaning up the 15,000 uncontrolled sites of previous disposals so far identified may be wasted. When Super fund expires in 1985, many uncontrolled sites still will require, attention. It is estimated that only $1.6 billion will be collected under Superfund by 1985 for cleanup of these sites. Inappropriate disposal of hazardous waste on land creates the risk of contaminating the environment, in cluding ground water, which could cause adverse health effects and for which cleanup actions are cost ly and difficult. As much as 80 _percent of regulated hazardous waste-some of which may remain hazard ous for years or centuries-is disposed of in or on the land. -,,---In addition, millions of tonnes of federally unregu lated or exempted hazardous wastes are disposed of in sanitary landfills (meant for ordinary solid wastes) and pose substantial risks. Such exemptions cover all types of hazardous wastes from generators producing less than 1 tonne a month, and other types of waste, such as infectious waste. Current policies are likely to lead to the creation of still more uncontrolled sites which will require Super fund attention. The unregulated burning of wastes as fuel supplements in home and industrial boilers may result in toxic air pollutants. Greater use of alternatives to land disposal could increase industry's near-term costs significantly. How ever, years or decades from now, cleaning up a site and compensating victims might cost 10 to 100 times today's costs of preventing releases of hazardous wastes. Federal policies may reduce industry's costs of land disposal by shifting some long-term cleanup and moni toring costs to government or to society as a whole. The effect may be to retard the adoption by industry of alternatives such as waste reduction and waste treatment. A key policy issue is: Can unnecessary risks and future cleanup costs be eliminated by limiting the use of land disposal, and by making alternatives to it more attractive? The Federal regulatory program for hazardous waste management was established by the 1976 Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA), primarily concerned with the proper management and permitting of present and future wastes; and the Comprehensive Environmental, Response, Compensation, and Liabil ity Act of 1980 (CERCLA), or Superfund, enacted to deal with the many substantiated and potential hazards posed by old and often abandoned uncontrolled hazardous waste sites. The OT A study supports the need for greater integration by EPA of these two programs. (Tum page for policy options and key issues.) The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) is an analytical ann of the U.S. Congress whose basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OTA, U.S. Congress, Washington, D.C. 20510. Phone: 202/224-8996. John H. Gibbons, Director.
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Policy Options OTA has identified four policy options-beyond maintaining the current Federal program-which could form the basis for an immediate and comprehensive approach to protecting human he_alth and the environment from the dangers posed by mismanagement of hazardous waste: 1. Extend Federal controls to more hazardous wastes, and establish national regulatory standards based on specific technical criteria. Also restrict disposal of high-hazard wastes on land and improve procedures for permitting facilities and deregulating wastes. 2. Establish Federal fees on waste generators to support Superfund and to provide an economic incentive to reduce the generation of waste and dis-courage land disposal of wastes; impose higher fees on generators of high-hazard wastes that are land disposed; provide assistance for capital in vestments and research and development for new waste reduction and treatment efforts. 3. Study the costs and advantages of classifying wastes and waste management facilities by degree of hazard to match hazards and risks with levels of regulatory control. 4. Examine the need for greater integration of Federal environmental programs to remove gaps, overlaps, and inconsistencies in the regulation of hazardous waste, and to make better use of tech nical data and personnel. Key Issues and Findings Current monitoring practices and EPA requirements under RCRA-espedally for land disposal sitesdo not lead to a high level of confidence that hazard ous releases will be detected and responsive action quickly taken. There are numerous technically feasible manage ment options for hazardous wastes, but they are not being used to their full potential. On the whole, Federal programs indirectly provide more incentive for land disposal than for treatment alternatives that permanently remove risks, or for waste reduction although technologies are available to reduce waste. States are being given increasing responsibilities by EPA without matching technical and financial re sources. A lack of State funds often prevents Super fund cleanups. A Federal fee system on waste gener ators could also be used to support State programs. EPA should make better use of State data and expertise. Actions that enhance public confidence in the equity, effectiveness, and vigorous enforcement of gov ernment programs may reduce public opposition to siting hazardous waste facilities. Opposition may also be reduced by improvement in the dissemination of accurate technical information on issues such as waste treatment alternatives to land disposal. EPA' s risk assessment procedures for selecting Superfund sites and for developing RCRA regula_tions have serious technical inadequacies that weak en protection of the public. Data inadequacies conceal the scope and complexity of the Nation's hazardous waste problems and im pede effective control. There is a need for a long term, systematic EPA plan for obtaining more com plete, reliable data on hazardous waste, facilities, sites, and exposure to and effects from releases of harmful substances. Wastes can be classified into at least three categories of hazard and, combined with facility classes, might form a technical base for Federal regulatory policies. Copies of the full OT A report are available from the U.S. Government Printing Office. For "Technologies and Management Strategies for Hazardous Waste Control," the GPO stock number is 052-003-00901-3; the price is $8.50. Copies of the report for congressional use are available by calling 4-8996. Summaries of the report are available at no charge from the Office of Technology Assessment.
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OTA REPORT BRIEF February 1983 Industrial and Commercial Cogeneration Cogeneration-the combined production of electric ity and useful thermal energy-could contribute significantly to reduced costs and greater planning flexibility for electric utilities, and to increased energy efficiency in industrial facilities, commercial buildings, and rural/ agricultural areas. But cogeneration' s potentially large market will be limited by technical, economic, and institutional constraints. These include the difficulties in using lower cost solid fuels; competition with con servation measures; mismatches between the ratio of need for electric and thermal energy and the ratios typically produced by a cogenerating unit. The high cost of investment capital will limit opportunities further. To achieve potential long-term benefits for electric utilities, cogeneration systems must use abundant solid fuels and produce high ratios of electricity to steam (E/S). But the available high EIS systems can use only oil or natural gas. Therefore, research and development efforts should concentrate on developing high EIS cogenerators that can bum solid fuels cleanly, and on advanced combustion ana conversion systems such as fluidized beds and gasifiers. Utility ownership could increase the amount of production as well as the reliability of cogenerated electricity. However, such ownership is at a competitive disadvantage because the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (PURP A) limits qualifying proj ects to those in which a utility owns less than 50 per cent equity. If the PURP A limitation were removed, concerns about the possible anticompetitive effects of utility ownership could be alleviated through careful State review of utility ownership schemes. For the near term, natural gas will be the preferred cogeneration fuel where the marginal or avoided cost rates for utility purchases of cogenerated electricity are based on the price of oil, and where natural gas is available. In the long term, however, natural gas is likely to be too costly for natural-gas-fired cogenera tion to compete economically with electricity generated at central station coal, nuclear, or hydroelectric power plants. Cogeneration also must compete for investment capital with conservation, which reduces steam loadsand therefore cogeneration's technical potential-and which often has lower unit capital costs and shorter payback periods than cogeneration. Costs. -The mean capital costs for commercially available cogenerators tend to be 20 to 40 percent low-er per kilowatt than central station generating capac ity. Also, the relatively small unit size and the shorter construction leadtimes of cogeneration systems mean substantial interest cost savings during construction, and greater flexibility for utilities in adjusting to unex pected changes in electricity demand than the over building of central station capacity. Electricity Prices. -Cogenerators have potentially lower unit costs for generating electricity than central station powerplants. However, these savings will not necessarily mean lower electricity rates if the price paid to the cogenerator-based on avoided costs-is higher than the utility's retail rates. A price that is less than the utility's full avoided cost, with the difference going toward rate reduction, would share any cost savings from cogeneration with the utility's other ratepayers, but would not provide the maximum possible economic incentive to potential cogenerators. Interconnection.-The primary issues are the util ities' legal obligation to connect generators with the grid, the cost of the equipment, the lack of uniform guidelines, and the uncertain potential for utility sys tem stability problems. Most of the technical aspects of interconnection are well understood, but additional research is needed to determine whether many cogen erators not centrally dispatched will cause utility sys tem stability problems. If PURPA is not amended to require interconnection, and if utilities do not intercon nect voluntarily, then the cost of obtaining an interconnection order from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission could be prohibitive for many potential cogenerators. Air Quality Impacts.-Cogeneration will not automatically offer air quality improvement or degradation compared to the separate conversion technologies it will replace. Rather, its impact will vary considerably from case to case. Adverse local air quality impacts from cogeneration are most likely to occur in urban areas. Copies of the full OT A report are available from the U.S. Government Printing Office. For "Industrial and Commercial Cogeneration," the GPO stock number is 052-003-00899-8; the price is $8.50. Copies of the report for congressional use are available by calling 4-8996. Summaries of the report are available at no charge from the Office of Technology Assessment. The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress whose basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OTA, U.S. Congress, Washington, D.C. 20510. Phone: 202/224-8996. John H. Gibbons, Director.
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.. Selected News Clips on OT A Publications. and Activities
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AutonJation and the Workplace: Selected Labor, Education, and Training Issues
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:HJ ~r~~hlt: :he, .. ~~jH~. ~):' :/~t ~=~n~:~:-'" lJ1J:tn.::i.1 r:.qu:pm..:_ .. L. ~-..> t" ..... mp~ .... .1"~ 1 s'ou of Jl.S ~, :(KN e:n p1oyees engagec\ : worker re-eaucauon .. ~( the mrnnent -)0 l);gJla, repair and mstail:mon technicians <, ~-actmmistra.i vi;: personnel whose Jobs '.~~;e elimmateci by tecnnological change ., 1 t"1e1n2 u..11crt:d for saie~. ,,;,~;-,,'. D;;.,~, o: \finneapdis has .n,e:,,;.ng ,:> :ne corpo:-ate retraining .;,ess 10, several years. It sel1s a com:-~; ;!nC sdtware system called Plato .. : ,~:s w.:,rkers teach themseives skilis -.-.,...,,. Jr,;m nigi", scho.:.il math to robot--;~;;; ;,lio"-' ...:p with on-the-Job in-: ... :r:i~; ~::~,~~-.insist' Chairr~u.r. \\"illi~m 1':c:-.. -~ 1 ~Y..i .;an t re~rair1 unless you use ~:~r.io:.iters. lt casts wo much for smalJ _,m1.1:i;11cS othe:-v.ise ... Control Da:..as efi .. ,rt ye1 t0 pay off. but the compan: Freebie for the Rich E: \en m a world of "buy one. get one :'~cc. the full-page New York Times ad .... a.s an eye-catcher. The deai: buy an :~;,anment ;n the Viscaya. a new luxury n4,!h-n:.e on Manhattans swanky East Si.Jc. and drive away in a free 1983 Rollsi-{o,.::e Silver Sp1r:t ... If you already own a R.,; ...... ccntmued the ad. we can discuss ..: .,e~r::.,,, Ye options. i ~"" \ 1scaya is what reai estate agents : 1. <:: des.:ri t>e as --very special. Maybe a .: ,, .,, sne;;;:2.L Tne two-.bedroom units .. ~,.:::: :-tl".i r, 1ower start at S582.500 ,:0 :,g,: a, S :.::: miiiion. They ccime .:::-.:. .:.. nt, s:1e~u:.cul;.1r -..e\VS. small --':::':,, :. :;c, .;:o~,.::-: '. marble oat.hs with ---.-.:.:.: ;. :c::-:rhX'L and a roof garden for .:,:-1:c:,, i..Jwner H:::,e.__111 .. '.-~: 'L\~\:--i ., ... ., 'l .., .-~,. ......... .,.-__ ;:~-c,_ : -'.!:7.en~.l::-mau;..: a~:~1..'!:. ~:-.... : 1nc i ..i.;xmese 1nvas1,'! cif lhe ;_ .5. :ri:ifket :">"othe:-s-h::1:. Sn'.. ne h::.~~ de-~;ded tl, stop ~ :he c~n!y r;1a2::.~ :~i.. ...::~t:-:;: ~u !:1e ~Jg:t (~,fl)e;:-!~ -,.:, : .'))e' ';;rn. \, "' v.: ;;: me: '.'lJ;;;;,.,~-~~-~ear .., :or-~e .. Jlci~ion .io~~;~:m:~:~~~~ W" ,;;,,~ : 1f :m.: ;nc:s: d;smayic,, situa--si"up Act. which begins Oct. I. Sevem:, '.iLlP~ nrev.;_;J~ :!, !ht entf\ leic:, w the percentofitsfundswillgotowardinstruc-won; 1orcc. Ma:r.y young peop1e _;ust out tion. During ns first year, the new act is ,,f schooi haYc a stunning la~h of basic expected to provide training for 1 million proficiencies. In Delaware. s,udents can disadvantaged youths and aduits as well graduate from high school W!th just a as 100.000 displaced workers. single credit in math and science. A dif-This latest Government effort. how ferent problem exists w higher educaever, is merely a Band-Aid solution. and ucn. ._,.,here colleges and universities Government money cannot supply any-have been unable 10 beef up the1r engiwhere near the whole answer anyway. As neering and eiectronics faculties fast far as technology and automalion are con-enough to meet the demand. According cerned. suggested the Office of Technol to Pat Choate. a senior policy analyst at ogv Assessment in its repon 1ast week. TR w lnc .. the shortage of new engi-11ffiere IS little evidence that any sector neers amounts w probably 4D.OOO a including private iz1dustry~is seriously year. and there 1s also a sc:m::ity of co:n-considering the Jong-range implications ... pi.Her rrogrammer~ anc syw;:ms :ma-The 1mplicat1ons of that message are lyst.s. Says Choate. "\\e ha\e gc-t w weighty. and the sooner they sink in make sure ,ha: the college offenngs the better. -By Alexander L Taylor II!. meet the projected needs ,,four societ:.. Rer,ortedbyGiselaBolte/Wnhingtonand5ara The Federai Government has hopes White/Boston _,, .. .,., .:1' .,.,~;~. t.a."s parking lot. Since Jan. l. su;:,pllers ar riving in Toyotas and their ilk :1ave had to look eisewhere for a space. The only ex ception: Delta employee~ ..,,.J10 alr~c~ owned Japanese cars. out 'l,'; %3 models. piea:.c Mc,e says tnat the : ,.::ai shi..Y~ -r0('m~ u~ see \\'h3.~ i).."!trciJt r.:~~ :(l o~re:-. \l<>e unv~!S ., C--h~,r-.,iet Lcrv;:i:t:. 01.;t ne adra::z-i. s0n1e\\ ~,rieepish,y. ~l., L"v..n1n~ a 1.\\'t!l\~-~t.!::.r~,.:.: ... : S~.::\ T\. J~ i: ~\er "c2.1s ,~-t.:~. :~~!: ~"l~J~ .::..,meni.::~:~: '\1ea.:1'-\n1Je. \.-h'Y.:s :,rJL.~~.:."ltt':>' g!\'es rL' \.Jti3ner to \i:.itors like ,he ,x,py-mach:ne repairman who groUSt..'Ci about having to park by tne Littk, League rield across rhe street. S,;id Moe: '"lfh: doesni like it. 1et hir:; walk ... The ABCs of Travel The idea seemed as simple as A B C. Republic Airlines introduced a new promotional scheme in January. hoping to lure more passengers during the slow. offpeak season. Under the plan. travelers taking the Minneapolis-based carrier from one smaliish city (Al to another (CJ via a large hub tO\\n like Atlanta (Bl ber fore March. 30 would earn a free pass for a round trip to any of 63 destinations. The passes are good until June 10 A few weeks ago. a travel agent fot:nd an extra txmus in the plan. A customer wanted to fly 140 miles from Valdosta G::: .. to Dothan. Ala. However. the S54 flight includes a stop more than 200 miles 1 from fiither town. in Atlanta. Bingo'. That meant a free pass to California. Word spread fast. The resulti..-ig stampede to Dothan included one high school senior who booked ien seats for hi.n1seif ano mne classmates so that they could take a trip after graduation. Soon people across tl1e country were plotting other short trips to earn free rides. Several Californians even paid $150 apiece. plus carfare to and from airpons. and spent a day flying from Sacramento 1 A) to San Francisco cost. but they think it was \vonh :t. Says Sookesman Redmond Tvier ""The campaign has brought more nationwide atter: tion than ad dollars can buy." And plac~ 1 like Dothan are seeing more strangers in i tov.'ll thaneven th.e most energetic Cham ber of Comme.rce could rustle u;:,. ---------------.... -. ----------------------------5 l
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The New York Times Saturday, March 19, 198] :Job Impact of Robots Debated at Hearing :., By PHILIP M. BOFFEt' Special to The New York nWASHINGTON, March 18 Sena-1lor Lloyd Bentsen told the Congres.sional Office of Technology Assess ment today to stop "hed~ng" and "'come up with some estimates of the magnitude of the "convulsion" that he .predicts. will disrupt the American work force as robots take over many :~,jobs. Citing predictions that robot sales ': wm rise 35 to 50 percent a year. Mr. Bentsen, the ranking Senate Demo crat on the Joint Economic Commit tee, said millions of jobs, conceivably :-s,one-quarter of the nation's factory 1;; work force, could be lost to robots by tn 1990. :.. .The Texas Senator, who presided ,.,over a brief 'hearing on the Issue ,,,today, called for plans and training '.if-.programs to cope with ''a revolution taking place in the work force." However, John Andelin, assistant -.. director of the Office of Technology ...,, Assessment, a nonpartisan re.search -arm of Congress, testified that the em ptoyment impact of robots is ''hard to predict, IJ.lld we lack confidence in those predictions currently publi cized." And Robert U. Ayres, profes sor of engineering and public policy at Carnegie-Mellon University, said the robots would not have a severe impact nationally, but could cause disrup. tions and unrest in states bordering the Great Lakes. Study Under 'way The technology office is cu~ntly conducting a study of automation and the workplace that "'111 be completed this fall. It issued a technical memo randum today that stressed the diffi culties in predicting the impact of robots. Mr. Andelin said that robots were still in only "limited" .use, even though they were introduced into in dustry two decades ago. He cited re ports that fewer than 5,000 robots were~ in the United States in 1981, about two-tenths of 1 percent of the 2.6 million maclline tools used in a single industry, metalworking. Any major impact lies in the future, he said, and predictions of that impact ''should be received warily." Mr. Andelin did say that automation might change the "working environment" by, for example, requiring different tasks from workers and possibly reducing occupational hazards in the metalworking industry. "We are struck by its importance," be said. He warned that there was "little evidence" that any group was seri ously considering the long-ra_nge needs for education and retraining to cope with automation. Existing educational efforts, he said, are "not proceeding in a coordinated fashion." Professional and technical workers tend to participate more than other groups, he said, yet older production line workers may be at greatest risk from automation. Only half the com panies that use automation have for mal training programs for their work ers, he said. Mr. Ayres, ~he Qnly othtlr witness, said that industrial robots have had a "negligible impact" on unemploy ment so far, and in the future would not put large numbers of workers "at risk.'' "On an aggregate national level, the problem should not be too severe," he said. "All the evidence at hand suggests that the numbers will not be very large through the 19/i0's, and that declining net rates of growth of the labor force in the l980's and 1991.l's could easily take care of the problem by attrition." But he argued that overall numbers did not tell the whole story, beca4se robots would have a concentrated im pact on semiskilled workers in the metalworking and other traditional ,. industries in Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois and Wisconsin, a n:gion that is "already economically troublt:d."
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{ I ilitlp11nnh IDime!i-Disatrit RICHMOND, VIRGlNIA D. 132,277 SUN.. 219,532 MAR 19 1983 Hero's welcome UPI Telephoto Actually, Hero is the robot. It pro-Ion University, and Sen. Lloyd Bent vided a light moment in Washington sen, D-'.l'exas. Bentsen, ranking Senfor John Andelin (left), with the.Qt.. ate Democrat on the Joint Economic ti~ a~iwJp~.A~szsmw. RobCommittee, said he plans a hearing ert Ayres, prolessor of engineering to evaluate the prospective impact and public policy at Carnegie-Mel-of r~botics on U.S. job~.
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DATE TIME STATION LOCATION PROGRAM CLIPS March 18, 1983 6:00-7:00 PM KRON-TV(NBC) Channel Four San Francisco NewsCenter 4 Evan White reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 6 2 9 7 Y It looks now like robots, in fact, may be their toughes~ competition. NewsCenter Four's Barton Eckert says some politicians at least are trying to keep hardware from shutting out humans. * (Robots in industrial companies and jobs are d-iscussed.) * Eckert: Bentsen's subcommittee ordered a government report on the employment impact robots may have. The Office of Tech nology Assessment released its findings today. John Andelin (Office of Technology Assessment): We're recommending or at least suggesting that people look rather carefully at the employment retraining, at basic education itself, that some sort of a flexibility with the labor force for the future is very important. Eckert: In essence trying to teach old dogs new tricks? Andelin: Yes! Sure, and the point is that we're all going to be old dogs. * (A university report calling for the use of robots is discussed.) * Vtdeo cassettes e,e available in any formlSt from OJf affiliate VIDEO MONITORING SBMCES Of AMERICA, INC., for a period of four weeks from air dat. c.,n 212Hl!l10
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Technologies and Management Strategies for Hazardous Waste Control
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The National Journal AT A GLANCE BANKING AND MONETARY POLICY Financial senices hearings ... Congress is girding for yet another look at the need to revise the laws governing the rapidly merging banking and securilies induslries. The Senate Banking. Housing and Urban Affairs Committee set April 6 for hearings to deal with a plate of issues: interstate banking. banks' financial services activities, securities firms' banking activities and competition between the two indus tries. Committee chairman Jake Garn, R-Utah, said revi sions in the laws are possible but not likely this year. Financial re-regulation .... Some federal experts are less than enamored of sweeping deregulation of the financial industry. In an article said to reflect the views of Federal Reserve Board chairman Paul A. Voicker, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis president Gerald Corrigan called for a rebuilding of the legal walls separating banking from other financial industries. BUDGET Procedural compromises .... House Budget Committee Democrats made what they consider modest concessionsto chairmen and senior aides of other committees who have complained that the budget process has stepped on their prerogatives. For example, in drafting the enforcement steps for the fiscal 1984 budget targets, the Budget Committee removed language used in recent years that requires commit tees to allocate their available spending among separate functions. Instead, th:e committees will have the discretion to spend the money as they wish so long"as they do not exceed their total. (See this issue, p. 670.) CONGRESSIONAL OPERATIONS Senate GOP on TV ... They may not be ready for prime time, but Senate Republicans have begun biweekly satellite transmission to 500 commercial broadcasters and 4,000 cable television systems of Conference Roundtable, a 30-minute "news discussion" featuring GOP Senators and re porters. It "offers the American people a regular opportunity to know ttie thinking and feeling behind the legislation in Congress," said Sen. James A. McClure of Idaho, chairman of the Senate Republican Conference. DEFENSE MANAGEMENT F-18 plans ... After prolonged internal Pentagon debate, deputy Defense secretary W. Paul Thayer said that the Navy will continue the F-18 program at current production rates but conced~d that it may buy fewer than the 1;377 planes originally planned. The F-18, built by McDonnell Douglas Corp. and Northrop Corp., is intended as a replace ment for the F-4 fighter and the A-7 light bomber._The plane has been criticized for its $22.5 million unit cost and its failure to meet range requirements for its bomber mission in tests by Air Force pilots. The Defense Department plans to buy 84 F-18s in fiscal-1984. (See NJ. 1/8/83, p. 56.) ECONOMIC POLICY PIK participation ... American farmers have promised the government to hold about 82 million of their 230 million 672 :'li.-\TIO~AL .IOt:R "1A!. !16 f!l} March 26, 1983 acres of land out of production this year, the Agriculture Department reported. As a consequence, said Secretary John R. Block, production of wheat and corn should be cut by about 25 per cent. In return, the government will pay farmers in cash or in kind from its vast stores of surplus crops. (See NJ, 3/5/83. p. 507.) ENERGY Gas decontrol ... Prospects for quick approval of natural gas decontrol faded as hearings revealed substantial doubts about the Admi.nistration's proposal. The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee scheduled hearings in Okla homa on March 28 and 29 and postponed voting on a bill until after Easter. The House Energy and Commerce Sub committee on Fossil and Synthetic Fuels completed hearings but made no plans to vote. (See NJ, 3/3/83. p. 519.) Canadian electricity ... The 64 electric companies in the New England Power Pool signed an I I-year contract to import Canadian electricity. The SS biliion deal is expected. to save New England more than five million barrels of oil a year when it begins in 1986. (See NJ, 5/22/82, p. 910.) ENVIRONMENT Hazardous waste .. : The Office of Technoloev Assessmept criticized Environf'!l~ntal Protection Agency rules as inade quate to prevent the release of toxic wastes into the environ ment. In a report to the House Energy and Commerce Committee, OTA said the ''superfund," at Sl.6 billion through 1985, will prove too small to clean all abandoned waste sites. EPA regulations under the I 976 Resource Con servation and Recovery Act, it added, are too loose to prevent the need for more cleanup. (See this issue, p. 659.) GOVERNME1'7 MANAGEMENT Padding the payroll? ... Figures from the Office of Person nel Management show that political appointments by the Reagan Administration have increased more than 40 per cent since September l 98 I while total federal employment has been cut back significantly. Rep. Patricia Schroeder, D Colo., said the Administration "has over 5 per cent more political appointees on the federal payroll than the Carter Administration did at its high point." HEALTH POLICY Life and death ... Dying patients should be given the right to refuse life-sustaining medical treatment without interference from the courts or Congress, the President's Commission for the Stud\' of Ethical Problems in Medicine and Biomedical and Behavioral Research said in its final report. The panel said physicians should have primary responsibility for decid ing treatment for incapacitated patients but encouraged hospitals to set up internal review committees to oversee such cases. h took issue with an Administration rule directing hospitals not to withhold .food or medical treatment for handicapped newborns, saying it would involve government in "bedside decision making," but added that discontinuing treatment should be allowed only when the handicap is .. so severe that continued existence would not be a net benefit to the infant." (See N./, 12/11/82. p. ]/ /9.) r, '1il
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MANSFIELD, OHIO NEWS-JOURNAL D. 37,980 S. 46,890 i!W~IL MA~ 19 1983 A timely toxic waste study Residents of Morrow and Richland counties and other folks living near the proposed Greater Ohio Industrial Community hazardous waste landfill should be particularly interested in the 407-page study on toxic wastes released this week by the congressional (J{{ice ca!Jechnolog~ A~~~ausm~-. The study, while it does not condemn all burial of toxic wastes, nevertheless does criticize federal regulatfons that encourage burial rather than safer disposal methods, such as incineration or treatment to reduce toxicity. An estimated 80 percent of hazardous wastes are now being buried, according to the OT A study. The reason is primarily one of economics. It is cheaper to dump the stuff in a landfill than to dispose of it in safer ways But the OTA study says that if the federal goverment required operators of toxic waste dumps to provide proper safeguards, burial would not necessarily be cheaper than other methods of dispoal. Even producers of toxic wastes concede that burial is less than an ideal means of disposal. A spokesman for the Chemical Manufacturers Association told the House Science and Technology subcommittee last year that there is a "need to reduce depeDdency on landfills,'' which he described as becoming "a last resort" for toxic waste disposal. Other authbrities express even greater concern, about toxic-waste buriaLSamuel S. Epstein, professor of environmental medicine at the University of Illinois Medical Center in Chicago, was quoted in the New York Times this week as saying this about landfills such as the one proposed for Morrow County: "They're not very secure. In fact, they're impractical and unsafe unless you're prepared to spend overwhelming amounts of money to produce hermetically sealed underground caskets with linings that will resist degradation for as long as the chemicals last." Epstein proposes an approach to toxic wastes similar to that voiced Tuesday night at Ashland College by environmentalist Lewis Regenstein: tax the production of hazardous wastes. If high enough, such a tax would accomplish two things. First, it would raise money to pay the high cost of making the disposal of toxic wastes as safe as possible. More importantly, it would discourage the production of toxic wastes in the first place "The moment you start taxing hazardous wastes to reflect external costs and start creating the right mix of economic incentives and regulation, you'll encourage a move to other alternatives and to less use of toxic chemicals," says Epstein. The idea of a toxic-waste tax has not yet caught on in Congress, but the OTA study has already prompted introduction of a couple of bills aimed at tightening control of how industry disposes of hazardous materials. Action on these bills cannot come too soon.
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The Knoxville News-Sentinel KNOXVIUE,. TENN. 0, 101,628 SUN. 157,625 MAR 18 1983 Toxic Waste Disposal 'Irresponsible,' Gore Says Study Shows By DAVID L VONS News-Sentinel Nasnville COrresoondent NASHVILLE -The public is "correct" in its belief that the dis posal of toxic waste has been "irre sponsible," U.S. Rep. Albert Gore said yesterday. Gore presented reporters with summaries of a three-year study of hazardous waste control by th~ ~of. I~_hno~y Ass!!ssment, a reporrre ca1feaa"liiiomM'k st\Iily" of hazardous waste disposal. The report concludes that pro ducers of hazardous waste rely too much on landfill disposal and not enough on recycling, waste separa tion, treatment and incineration as alternatives. Gore has introduced legislation removing some of the regulatory impediments to alterna tive disposal methods. He also called for a "comprehen sive, long term solution,. to hazard ous waste, with more cooperation between federal and state govern ments and private industry. March 30 Gore will hold a congressional hearing in Jackson to discuss the fin~ings of the OTA report and al ternatives to landfill disposaL "Most landfills leak,,. Gore said, justifying public concern over toxic waste landfills. ..The chemicals act like Drano, eating away at liners ;.- and clay barriers.,. Public confidence needs to be restored, Gore said, by separating wastes and preventing the toxic wastes which ''pose a risk of escap ing and poisoning the groundwater" from landfill disposa~ Altering the fee collection sys tem of the federal Superfund act to. wards collection arid. disposal fees would also provide wivate com mercial incentives towards alterna tive technology. "The technology is available to day for alternatives," Gore said. In dustry must be willing to pay the additional cost for separation, recy cling, treatment and incineration to avoid the long tenn cost of cleaning up a toxic landfill. "Are we going to ask future generations to pay 50 to 100 times as much to take care of the problems we created?" Gore asked. Gore sidestepped an opinion on whether the state needs its own hazardous waste superfund if the federal government will be getting deeper involved. But the Representative said his bill would provide.,50 percent funding for cleanup of toxic waste sites on municipal property, and the state's proposed $2.5 million superfund could be used as the local IO percent match if federal funds are available for cleanup.
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I Harnessing hazardous-waste sites Tighte,z laws, report says, or new dumps will outstrip ,clea11ups By Uale Mezzacappa r Inquirer Woslllngton Bureo~ 1. 'r 7 Y m .. Mich.) and James J. Florio m.. said. It urged that the government dust and still others allow burn-N.J. ). restrict the disposal of hazardous ing of waste in industrial boilers ; W ASIIINGTON Unless ~ongress lighten~ laws regulating hazardous wastes and the Environment11l Pro tection Agency changes its enforce ment policies. new and dangerous disrosal. sites will be created faster than the government can clean up existing ones, a congressional report has concluded. i' The O fice no scssmcn t C oun ascd oil a 1rce-1'tar sluily, that 2SS million to 275 million metric tons of hazardous wastes continue to be generated ~ach year. with only 40 million of that coming under existing federpl laws. Most of the rest is regulated by states. but they are increasingly hard-pressed to adequately deal with the waste because of limited techno logical and financial resources. "Newly established federal regula tions for hazardous-waste-manage ment facilities may not effectively detect, prevent or control hazardous releases. .'Specially over the longer term." the OTA report said. The re port was relc:i:-.cd yesterday at the request of U.S. Heps. John D. Dingell The OTA, an analytical arm or the wastes ~n land and encourage rewithout meeting the standards re' Congress. also said the EPA docs-not search into alternative methods of quired of licensed wast1..>-disposal fa-have a uniform or adequate way or disposal. cllities. identifying what is hazardous and The Superfund law. which is cJc-: Also yesterday. U.S. Sens. Dill Bradwhat is not and suggested that the signed to clean up hazardous dump Icy and Frank Lautcnbcrg. both New EPA adopt a system classifying sites. provides no specific technical Jersey Democrats. announced that wastes by degree of hazard. Furtherstandards for determining the extent they would introduce legislation to more. EPA does not coordinate its of cleanup. Because of the W!,lY the e~tend the Supcrfund law for anoth: activities with states very well. the l~w is structured, there is an_ lncen.. er five years beyond 1985. 'I OTA said. ~1~e. under EPA rules to .m~nimi-ze ~r~dley, a prime spon5?r of the 1 "Because there arc no specific fed-m111al costs by s~mply sh1ftmg the ong~nal Supcrhmd law. said that ex1 cral technical standards for the ex wast~ from one site to another and tension of the Superfund was necestcnt of cleanup. and because there is caus1~g more long-range problems sary to ensure a continued c?mmitan incentive to minimize initial than tl solves. ment to cleanup of hazardous-waste costs, r.emedial actions may be taken, Dingel_! 3:nd Flqrio sai? that they si_tc~. The current ~aw provides $1.6 that will prove ineffective in the "".ould inFtroduce legislation de b1lhon, most of which comes from a tong term.'' the report said. s~gned Jo ~orrect some of the dc~ispecial tax on industrial polluters. Dingell. who is chairman. of the ctencics cited by the OTA. Their Bradley and Lautenbergs legislallouse Energy and Commerce Comproposals would close l?Opholes tn 11011. would double t_he. fund to SJ.2 mittce. said that under the current the Resource Conserva~ton an.ct Re.. million and extend It through 1990. system, most of the money that will cover~ Act (RCRA), which regulates Lautenberg, a freshman. seniltor, be net-'
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Dumps. Expanding Report: Waste FRONT PAGE Rules _____ acking Knight-Ridder News Service W ASWNGTON -New hazardous dump sites will be created faster than the government can clean up the old ones unless Congress tightens laws regulating waste, and the Environmental Protection Agency changes its enforcement po. Ucies,. a _c~ongi,:essi.onal report has con~ eluded. Th~ Qt.ti()}.~ ~D.oJ,q~~m~l'!~after-~ three-. year study, said that hazatdous waste IS being generated at a rate of up to 275 million metric tons a year, but that federal laws now apply to only about 40 million tons a year .. Most of the rest is regulated by individual states. which are increasingly bard pressed to deal with the EPA chief can't explain deletions, ~age 6A waste because of limited technological and rmandal resources. "Newly established. federal regulations for hazardous waste management facilities tnay not effectively detect, prevent. or control hazardous releases, especially over the longer term," said the report, released Wednesday at the request of, Reps. John Dingell, D-Mich., and James Florio, D-N.J. OTA is a research agency that evaluates complex technical issues for Congress, with the help of outside contractors and an advisory panel of experts from industry, universities and environmental groups. ITS REPORT said the EPA did not have a uniform or adequate way to identify what is hazardous and what Is not It suggested that EPA adopt a system classifying wastes by degree of hazard. It also said the agency should improve coordination of its activities with the states. "Because there are no specific federal technical standards for the extent of cleanup, and because there is an incentive to minimize initial costs, remedial actions may be taken that will prove ineffective in the long term," the report said. Dingell; chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, said that unqer the current system the estimated $10 billion to $40 billion needed to clean up all the existing sites could be squandered. UP TO 80 percent ot all hazardous waste now is put in landfills, the easiest but potentially most hazardous means of disposal, the OT A study said. It urged the government to restrict land disposal and encourage research into alternatives. The Superfund law, which is designed to clean up hazardous dump sites, provtdes no specific technical standards for determining the extent of cleanup. OTA said that because of the way the law is structured, current EPA rules provide an incentive to minimize initial costs by simply shifting the waste from one site to another, causing more loi!grange problems. tugl.e nu.o ill1-arvn -1 WICHITA. KANS. D. 123,:,45 MAR 1 7 1 no J :; (} 0
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IVIillions of Tons Of Toxic Waste Eiude Regulation e DUMP SITES, From. 1 A" Dingell and Florio said they would introduce legislation designed to correct some of the defi ciencies cited by the OTA. THEY SAID their proposals' would close loopholes in the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act; which regulates the d1sposal ot hazardous wastes. They did not sug gest changes in the Supertund. Florio said that about 40 million metric tons of hazardous waste dumped each year escapes any kind of regulation. About 4 million tons are from small generators, or industries that produce one ton or less of hazard ous waste a month, he said. This loophole exempts more than 92 percent of the nation's hazardous waste generators from any regula tion, allowing them to dump waste into sanitary landfills and open dumps instead of facilities approved for hazardous substances, Florio said. THE REPORT charged that loop holes in regulations allow "potentially hazardous waste to escape proper management and oversight" Dioxin, thought to be 'the most -toxic chemical known. is not even classified as a hazardous waste, the report noted. DingeU Florio that accepted. hazardous waste rrom small generators, "" The Supertund law expires in 1985. Sens. Bill Bradley and Frank. Lautenberg. New Jersey Democrats, said Wednesday they planned to introduce legislation to extend the law to 1990. A SIMILAR indictment of the' long-term hazards of land disposal was Issued Wednesday by an expert committee of the National Academy of Sciences, the nation's most presti gious scientific organimtion. The academy's report on "Management of Hazardous Industrial Wastes": urged industry to revamp its manufacturing processes in order to re. duce the volume of wastes or else treat the wastes to make them less hazardous. "The use of landfills should be minimized," the academy report said, because many toxic cbemlcals According to EPA. more than half the first 115 top priority cleanup sites identified under the Supertund were sanitary lan~fills remain hazardous for more than 500 years and will ''Very likely mlgrate over long periods into ground water."
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RepOrt: EPA rules oh toxic wastes don't protect public BY \\-1WAM E. CLAYTON JR. Chronicle Washington Bureau WASHING TON -Congressional researchers say federal regulations concerning hazardous wastes fall far short of protecting public health. EPA regulations "do not assure consistent nationwide levels of protection for human health from the potential effects of massive annual accumulations of toxic waste," said the report released Wednesday by the~ w.e Qt 'itecbPRIOU Aft~Wfib an agency of Congress Work on t e report was going on long before the confrontation between Congress and the Reagan admini~ration that brought the dismissal of Rita M. Lavelle, manager of the Environmental Protection Agency's t(lxic waste programs, and the resignation of Anne M. Burford, EPA administrator. But the report is almost certain to highlight continu ing debate about effectiveness of basic EPA guidelines, regardless of who is administering them. : "Regulations for hazardous waste management do not effectively detect, prevent, or control the release of toxic substances into the land, air and water, particularly over the long term," the study says ; Part of the problem is that what states call hazardous differs greatly from what federal officials call hazardous. For example, the Office of Technology Assessment study said Texas officials estimate 29 million tons of hazardous wastes are generated each year .in Texas, but tbe EPA estimates the volume at 3 million tons. The difference is that Texas' estimate includes wastes not counted by EPA, including refuse from energy production, industrial ash, wastes from environmental control activities themselves, mining wastes and wastes from demolition. : The Resource Conservation and Recovery Act is one of two major federal laws covering management of hazardous waste. The recovery act is concerned with pres ent and future wastes, and the law setting up the "superfund" is concerned with cleaning up old and often ~bandoned waste sites from past generation of wastes The Office of Technology Assessment said it found these general weaknesses in the "superfund": : "There are no specific federal technical standards for determining the extent of 'superfund' cleanups re quired, and there is an incentive under EPA rules to minimize initial costs by, for example, shifting wastes from one location to another. Thus, remedial cleanup actions costing billions of dollars may prove ineffective in the long run."
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, HACKENSACK, N.J. THE RECORD D. 148,143 SUN. 209,564 tf/'L MAR 17 198 3 N.J. lawmakers sponsor measures Congress may tighten toxic-waste curbs I By Bob Cunningham The Record's Washington bureau WASHINGTON, D.C. Members of Congress are moving to renew and strengthen two laws governing the disposal of toxic chemical wastes. This effort, which includes two bills intro duced yesterday by New Jersey lawmakers, comes as Congress continues to probe the way President Reagan's appointees have enforced existing laws. It also coincided with the release yesterday of a report which said that those laws could guarantee neither the cleansing of old dumps nor the prevention of new hazards. Congress had tried to deal with chemical haz ards with .a two-front attack. The so-called Su perfund was created to clean up chemicals which were improperly dumped in the past. Companion legislation was designed to insure safe disposal of new. wastes. However, the ,W;ljp: ~. TechnoloSX Assess ment {OT A}t a research arm of Congress, con:" 'eluded thai te Superfund was too small to han dle all the old dump sites and that many new wastes were exempted from disposal controls or inadequately regulated. Rep. James Florio,. D-Camden, proposed tightening the law to cover more new wastes and to prohibit burial of the most toxic chemicals, even in approved' landfills. And New Jersey Sens. Bill Bradley and Frank Lautenberg, both Democrats, proposed extending the life of the Superfund and its tax on the chemical industry for an extra five years, which would bring in an additional $1.6 billion and encourage faster action on cleaning up old chemical sites. Sen. Gary Hart, D-Colo., proposed extending the Superfund for 10 years and increasing the tax on very dangerous chemicals to generate an extra $15 billion for cleanups. Bradley said that he might later support some changes like those proposed by Hart but that for now, the most important thing Wi!S quick action to provide a signal that government re mains willing to deal with toxic wastes. "This will say, 'Yes, there are people who care about the cleanup of toxic wastes,'" Brad ley said. He added that Hart's complex proposal could get bogged down on its way through Congress and squander the opportunity provided by headlines about hazardous chemical dumps; "If we don't move now when there is a clear demand for an extension, you can't be sure you'll get it by 1985,'' be said. The Superfund law expires in that year. The OTA said in its report that cleaning up the dump sites that have already been identified as hazards will cost $10 billion to $40 billion, far more than the $1.6 billion currently being ra~sed for the Superfund. Scrimping on the cleanup now will just pass on greater costs to future generations, the report said. It also criticized the current regulations for encouraging the burying of wastes in landfills. Even in approved sites, burial doesn't remove a toxic hazard, it just passes it on to later genera_ tions, the report said. Instead, it said, Congress ought to be encour aging the development and commercialization of techniques to neutralize harmful chemicals or to alter industrial operations to reduce the volume of dangerous byproducts at the source. The report said consumers may have to pay higher prices for some goods if stricter controls are placed on manufacturing processes and on disposal of wastes. But it added: "Years or decades from now, cleaning up a site and compensating victims might cost 10 to 100 times today's costs of preventing release of hazardous materials." Both Florio's and Hart's bills try to discour age dumping -in landfills. Florio would bar dis posal of liquid wastes in landfills, where they could leak into local water supplies. He said that chemicals such as dioxin, which will remain tox ic for generations, should be incinerated. The community of Times Beach, Mo., was evacuated recently when a flood spread dioxin throughout the community. Florio said that, as he reads the current law, there is nothing to prevent the kind of dioxin contamination that led to the evacuation of Times Beach from happen ing again. Dioxin, Florio said, is not even on the EP A's list of chemicals covered by disposal reg ulations. In the 1970's, dioxin-contaminated waste oil was spread along dirt roads in Times Beach to control dust, and flooding last December aggra vated the contamination, forcing the residents to evacuate. The EPA has said it would spend $33 milllion to buy the town. Florio's bill would also extend disposal regu lations to companies which generate small amounts of hazardous wastes and are currently exempted. Those small amounts may add up to big problems if improperly disposed of, he says. Hart's bill would replace the Superfund's tax on the volume of chemicals a plant produces with a tax on the hazardous byproducts. The tax would be higher for extra-deadly chemicals, and would double after the year 1990. The tax would also be higher for chemicals disposed of by less secure methods.
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jFRONT PAGEi N.J. senator_s urge double superfund By.ALAN FRAM WASHINGTON (AP) Toughening the federal superfund program would demonstrate that the government still intends to rid the nation of its worst chemical waste sites, New Jersey's two senators say. With that in mind, Sens. Bill Bradley and Frank Lautenberg introduced a bill yesterday that would double the life and the funding of the superfu~. which is designed to help cltan up the country's toxic waste sites. The two Democrats said that with the controversy swirling around the fed eral Environmental Protection Agency, it is time to try to extend the life of the fund. "What we're saying with this ln tri:xluctlon is that we'll continue the superfund bill and the resources that can be used to clean up toxic waste dumps, and we feel that is a particularl: important signal to send to the people iJ New Jersey," Bradley said. Also yesterday, Sen. Gary Hart, DColo., introduced a bill to expand the superfund almost tenfold, and Rep. James J. Florio, D-N.J., chairman of the House subcommittee in charge of hazardous waste, proposed legislation he said would close loopholes in regu lations regarding the handling of toxic waste. The superfund was created ln 1980 as a five-year, ,1.6 billion progam. It ls administered by the EPA, and its mon ey ls raised from taxes on some chemicals and petroleum products. "lf we don't move now when there is a clear demand for an extension, you can't be sure you'll be able to get it in 1985, Bradley said. The senators said the amount of 5:e Senators, page A'l \\. ,,. SHREWSBURY, N.J. REGISTER D. & S. 31.035 ~L MAR 17 1983 Senators urge double superf ufffl (continued) '") The measure by Hart, who is a de-money now in the superfund is not 'clared presidential candidate; would reenough to even "make a signficant place the. current tax on chemicals and dent" in the country's worst dump sites. petl'.oleum with new levies on the gener. "gven if augmented by fines or con-ators of hazardous wastes. Such a tax, tribut.ions from private parties, the ex-Hart argued, would be an incentive for isting funds could clean up no more than waste producers to find alternatives for an estimated 200 sites," the senators producing and storing chemicals. said :in a statement. "In the state of The Florio bill aims to correct flaws New Jersey alone, we now know that identifiM in a 407-page report by the some 230sites are in need of cleanup." QWr;:e oi ,~l'ecbDWPQ'. A,sessment, a non-Extending the program also would partisan research arm of Congress, have psychological benefits, the senawhich said current laws not~nly are tors suggested. inadequate to stem the flow, but in some "What I wanted to do is send a clear cases may even encourage improper message that you can get an extension disposal. of thisright away," Bradley said. Florio said the study "clearly con-Lautenberg, a freshman senator, firms that there are serious and numer called the superfund extension "urous gaps in our present hazardous waste gent'' for New Jersey. Of the 418 sites regulatory system gaps which must -EPA has said will be cleaned up with be closed if we are to protect public superfund assistance, 65 are in the New health." Jersey, more than in any other state. He cited as an example the so-called Bradley and Lautenberg said their "small generators" exemption under measure was not meant as an alterthe law that allows industries producing native to tht! Hart proposal. But they less than a ton of h?'.'r~..-,.~.':' j;llilt(J-. each said a new law, such as Hart's, could month to be exemp~ uvmTeoeral regu take longer to enact because lawmakers lation. would want to study it more closely. He said 92 percent of all waste gener ators, producing about 4 million tons of toxic wastes each year, are covered by the exemption. The New Jersey Democrat said he planned to begin hearings' on his bill within two weeks. Rep. John Dingell, DMich., chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, is a co-spon sor; and Florio said he hoped to have the bill ready for floor action by mid-May. ,,
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COLORADO SPRINGS, COL SUN D. 30,607 SUN, 31,732 SAT. 30.325 MAR 17 1983 Hlart seeks larger Superfund By Denise Gamino Colorado Springs Sun WASHINGTON A bill to enlarge by 10 times the size of the $1.6 billion Superfund de signed to clean up poisonous waste sites around the country, in cluding nearly 40 loca tions in Colorado, was introduced Wednesday by Sen. Gary Hart, DColo. The bill would provide a $15.2 billion program over 10 years. Hart's action coin cided with the release of a report by the congressional Wf.ise ot ~&hpruogv Assessment concluding that current hazardous waste laws are inadequate, and, in some cases, may encourage toxic dumping. "The current $1.6 billion Superfund program will not be able to clean up even half of the 418 official priority hazardous waste sites, let alone the other 15,000 hazardous waste sites in the country," Hart said. Five hazardous waste sites around the state and 31 toxic radium sites around Denver are on the Environmental Pro tection Agency's priority list. Hart said his bill would enable sites such as the Lowry landfill to receive "remedial atten. tion." The five Colorado sites are the Sand Creek Industrial site and the' Woodbury Chemical Co. site, both in Commerce~ City; the Marshall landfill, Boulder; Argo tun nell, Central City and Blackhawk area; and the California Gulch, Lead ville. It is estimated that more than a quarter billion tons of hazardous wastes are released into the environment each year. The OTA. report, work on whicn began before President Reagan took office, found that federal laws ''1J!ay not effectively detect; prevent or con tfot hazardous releases, especially civer theJonger term. Consistent levels of protection nationwide are not -as sured." Those taxes are sched uled to expire at the end of 1984, and Hart's bill would ~_eplace those levies with new taxes .on the newly created hazardous wastes that are transported, disposed of or stored for more than a year. These taxes would raise about $13.3 billion over 10 years, Hart said, and would be boosted by a feder.al contribution of $190 million annually during, the 10-year peri od. "They would also pro vide a powerful econom ic incentive for the de v e I opme nt of alternatives to continued production and disposal of hazardous wastes," he said. The senator's bill -would set aside 10 percent of the new Superfund for state toxic waste management and clean-up programs.
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The Christian Science Monitor BOSTON, MASS, D. 151,825 ~; MAR 17 1"983 ,--US-toxic-waste laws called weak Washington While Congress rushes to investigate EPA's hazardous-waste cleanup efforts, a just~eased report has concluded that us laws on hazardous waste are themselves inadequate, Monitor correspond~ Peter Grier reports. ; The report, produced by the Cgngresslonal Offia 9.f T!S)!J21Rgy As sessment after a three-year study, says consistent, nationwide protec: tion against toxic substances Is not assured, because federal regulations don't "effectively detect, prevent, or control hazardous releases, especially over the ~nger tenn." We don't really know enough about how much hazardous. waste is produced In the United States every year, or how dangerous that waste is, the report says. In addition, gaps in the law allow several hundred million tons of toxic waste annually to escape control of the Environmental Pro tection Agency. Up to 80 percent of hazardous waste that is regulated ends up in land dumps, says the report, a risky disposal method at best which may just be postponing cleanup costs further Into the future. "Superfund" pays for cleanup at old hazardous--waste dump sites. The report says some progress is being made toward cleaning up the worst of these sites, but there win still be many dirty dumps needing attention when Superfund expires In 1985. The EPA won't even be able to finish scrubbing up the 418 sites on Its priority list. In totaJ, over 15,000 uncontrolled hazardous-waste dumps have now been identified. Possible solutions suggested by the report include simple extension of federal controls, federal fees on waste generators, and a system of / classifying wastes and dump sites by their degree ~! ~rd.
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Bill targets toxic -control loopholes WASHINGTON (UPI) -. The chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee said today loopholes weakening laws governing management and control of toxic wastes must be eliminated. Rep. John Dingell, D-Mich., told a news conference that legislation he and Rep. James Florio, D-N.J., will introduce later today would close the loopholes. Dingell released a study that 'found EPA regulations do not assure protection of human health from the potential effects of mas sive accumulations of toxic waste. The study, by the Qf.f.ice pf Technology Assessment also said erhentage of the 15,000 toxic w_aste dumps around the nation could cost between $10 billion and S40 billion. The "Superfund" for cleaning up hazardous waste through 1985, budgets $1;6 billion. "These regulations for hazard ous waste management do not effectively detect, prevent, or control the release of toxic substances into the land, air, and water, parti cularly over the longer term," the study said. It said about 250 million metric tons of regulated hazardous waste is generated annually, nearly one metric ton "for every individual in the nation." Meanwhile, Sen. Gary Hart, DColo., introduced legislation to ex pand tenfold the Superfund pro gram intended to cleanup the na tion's worst toxic waste dump sites. Sen. Jennings Randolph, DW. Va., said, "The Congress must act promptly to close the gaps in our federal hazardous waste reg ulatory program." The report said cleanup actions costing billions of dollars may prove ineffective, because there are no specific federal technical standards for determining the ex tent of Superfund cleanups re quired. It also noted there is an incentive under Environmental Protection Agency rules to minimize initial J costs by shifting wastes from one location to another. ALBUQUERQUE, ILM. TRIBUNE D. 45.0M MAP 16 l983
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The Pittsburgh Press PITTSBURGH, PA. / 0. 262,760. SUI{. 618,380 -~ MAR 16 1983 EPA Unable To Protect, Report Says By ANN McFEATTERS Scripps~Boward Staff Writer WASHINGTON -Even if the besieged Environmental Protection Agency quickly gets back on its feet, the public will not be adequately protected from hazardous wastes, charges a report for Congress made public today. Aside from questions of conflict of interest and administrati~e incompetence at EPA, tht; ~. Is~p210;,a1 Ass.nt told congress1ona commT eg mvestf iilnF Sandling of toxic chemicals that EPA's recently issued regulations and technical expertise are dangerously inad equate to handle either existing or new waste. More than a ton of hazardous waste for each man, woman and child in the country is added to the environment each year. Hazardous waste is defined as solid waste that causes death, birth defects, irreversible illness or substantial adverse impact on human health or the environment when improperly handled .or disposed of. One problem is that of all the toxic waste generated each year in the United States, the federal government regulates only about 16 percent of it. The rest is exempt from federal regulations. The report also says most states are financiaJ~Y an~ _technically unable to exercise added Jurisdiction over toxic wastes given them by the EPA. It adds: "Because there are no specific federal technical standards for the extent of cleanup and because there is an incentive to minimize initial costs, remedial actions may be taken that will prove ineffective in the long term. When Superfund (the 1930 federal law requiring cleanup of toxic wastes) expires in 1985, many uncontrolled sites still will require attention." The problem is nationwide. An unreleased ~PA study, says OTA, found 80,263 contaminated P.lts, ponds and lagoons. There are more than 1 15,000 uncontrolled dump sites with hazardous wastes. Another. unreleased EPA study found contamination of 29 percent of groundwater j supplying drinking water to 954 cities. It is estimated that anywhere from $10 billion Ii to $40 billion is needed to clean up a fraction of the ~bandoned ~azardous waste dumps (not counting the $4 billion to $S billion industry and government are spending annually to dispose of regulated wastes). Superfund provides for spending $1.6 billion by 1985. So far several hundred million dollars have bee~ spent, n_ot including the amount to be spent buymg up Times Beach, Mo., contaminated by dioxin when roads were sprayed to reduce dust. OTA contends that not all the technically feasible management options for hazardous waste disposal are being used to their full potential. OTA says more federal economic incentives should be aimed at making companies recycle and reduce waste at the source. One suggestion by OTA is that Congress consider a system of fees on generated wastes as a means of rewarding industries which practice the best hazardous waste management. OT A admits there are problems with the fee concept because it can put a heavy economic burden on industry and consumers. reduce competitiveness with international companies and promote illegal dumping. Along with fees, OTA recommends a federal loan program to build more sophisticated waste handling facilities. All the inv~tigations and studies of hazardous waste mamrgement ~o date have indicated the problems are more complex, costly and serious than originally thought. Congress, which does not like to deal with such techni~al is51!es, is not happy at the prospect of reopening the hazardous waste debate. But heads of committees investigating EPA's role in hazardous waste cleanup say the OTA report raises valid issues that must be considered. Rep. Morris UdaU, D-Ariz., chairman of the committee to which OTA reports, said the information would help Congress "deal with the situation" at EPA and help Congress restore public confidence in the ability of the government to protect the public from hazardous wastes. Rep. J~mes Florio, D-N.J., _an author of Superfund, sa1d the report confirms "serious and numerous gaps in our present hazardous waste regulatory system." Rep. John Dingell, D-Mich., chairman of the House Energy Committee,. said the study shows ~hat Congress, the environmental community and 1~dustry must cooperate in finding better ways to dispose of waste. ':
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[RoNTPAGE{ HERALD EXAMINER LOS AUGELES, CAL D, 285,371 SUft. 300.179 :;"r. zzq S?J MAR 16 1983 Just when you thought it v1as safe to drink the water Report to Congress says EPA is lax on pollttters By Vic Ostrowldzkl Hearst news service ASHINGTON The Environmental Protec tion Agency has been sitting on a study show ing 80,263 sites in the nation with contaminated surface impound ments that pose at least a potential threat of ground water contamina tion, a congressional study claims. The (Hfice of TechnolQgi, As s~ent7 est1brfflfmn,y eiltF~s, lurFer contends in hard-hitting criticism of EP A's hazardous waste program that another unreleased EPA study found that of the 954 cities whose underground drinking water supplies it tested, 29 percent were contaminated. All the affected areas had popu lations of more than 10,000. Leach ing of toxic substances from waste landfills is believed to be a contri butory factor in these cases. The OTA study, which did not disclose the names of the cities or the locations of the sites, also charges that the newly established federal toxic waste regulations are failing to protect public health and environment. According to the report, which will be released this week, the directives for regulated hazardous waste management do not "detect, pre,ent or control the release of toxic substances into the land, air, and water, particularly over. the longer terqi." "In addition, millions of tons of federallyexempted hazardous waste disposed in sanitary landfills pose substantial risks," the study contends. The three-year study also warns that financial restraints and lack of technical resources will make it difficult for states to fulfill their increased responsibility for waste management policy "States are being given increasing responsibility by the Environmental Protection Agency without match ing technical and financial resources," the study which will be realeased this week
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DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM T.V. CLIPS -March 16, 1983 8:00-10:00 PM ET Cable News Network Prime News Lou Dobbs reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 6297 Y The controversy over the EPA was fueled by charges that the agency dragged its feet on cleaning up this country's toxic waste dumps. Now, a Congressional re-port concludes that our environmental laws are n6t adequate to deal with the problem. CNN's Nadine Stewart reports on the findings of the Office of Technology Assessment. c .au Stewart: The report paints a discouraging.picture of the Government's efforts to clean up the nation's fifteen thousand toxic waste dumps. It concludes the problem of toxic waste is almost out of control and that the Government cannot hope to solve it with the laws now in the books. ~ndustries spew forth a quarter billion tons of poisoned waste a year--for every person in the country one ton of waste. The EPA Superfund provides 1.6 billion dollars to clean up sites that have already been identified. In contrast, the report says cleaning up.those sites could cost from ten to forty billion,and that's only for sites we've already found. As the recent controversy over Times Beach, Missouri, shows, more are being discovered every year. Even more discouraging is the report's analysis of the present laws that regulate toxic waste cleanup. John Dingell (Michigan): Current monitoring and disposal practices appear to be inadequate. There are many technically feasible management options for handling these hazardous wastes which are not currently being used or not being well used. Neither the states nor EPA appear to have either the technological, the legal, or the financial capabilities of dealing with the problem at this particular time. Stewart: There are no Federal standards for deciding the extent of the cleanup needed under the present Superfund, and there are almost too many loopholes through which polluters can slip. For example: Exempted are so-called Video cassettes arc ~ailable ,n any format from our affiliate \/10EO MONITORING 5MCES OF AMERICA, INC., for a period of four weeks from air date. Call 212-736
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CLIPS small generators, companies that produce less than a ton of hazardous waste a month. Figures show ninety-two percent of our hazardous wastes are produced by these companies. That's a whopping four million tons of waste a year. James Florio (New Jersey): Someone can legally, and this is the defensive point, legally dump up to a ton a month of toxic wastes without going through the regulatory scheme. Stewart: The existing regulations also encourage poor methods of disposal. The report is especially critical of burying the wastes, a practice it concludes is ineffective because even the best landfill will leak eventually, and the report adds that existing laws encourage moving the waste from one location to another instead of the more costly process of cleaning them up once and for all. To put it simply, Congress did not know the extent of the toxic waste problem in this country when it enacted environmental laws in the '60s and '70s. Two bills were introduced today that aim at remedying that problem. The House bill, sponsored by Representatives James Florio and John Dingell,aims to close the loopholes. The Senate bill, sponsored by Gary Hart, would expand the Superfund ten times over ten years. The present fund expires in 1985. Hearings on both are to start soon and are almost sure to continue to fuel the controversy over toxic wastes and the Government's method of dealing with them. CATE March 16, 1983 ACCOUNT NUMBER 6 2 9 7 Y TIME 1 : 0 0 -1 : 0 S PM MT NETWORK ABC Informational PROGRAM News I Kate Dordan reporting: A study done for the Congress by its Qffice of Technology As~e~~m$n~ says we're going ~bout the ~isposal of hazardous waste all wrong. We bury it about eighty percent of the time and the report claims that is just exactly what not to'do if you want to protect the nation'.s water supplies. The report estimates there are over fifteen thousand uncontrolled toxic dumps. In testimony today on Capitol Hill acting EPA director John Hernandez estimated that perh~ps 9ne hundred sites wiil be cleaned up this year.
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CATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM RADIO CLIPS J\ilarch 16, 19 8 3 9:00-9:05 AM MT NBC News Carmeron Swayze reporting: / ACCOUNT NUMBER 6 2 9 7 Y A ton of pollution per person in the United States: That's the estimate of a new Congressional study by the qffice of Technology,_which says the United States generates two tnousand pounds of hazardous waste per person per year. The repoit was released this morning by Congressman James Florio, a Democrat from New Jersey, who heads one of those subcommittees looking into the EPA. Florio says Federal laws are not tight enough to cope with all this pollution. Florio: Someone can legally, this is the offensive part, legally dump up to a ton a month.of toxic waste without going through the regulatory scheme--dump it literally anywhere. Dioxin is not even listed. as a hazardous waste under this whole system. Swayze: The report released by Florio and Congressman John Dingle estimates -that cleaning up most of the fifteen thousand toxic waste dumps in the United States, would cost up to forty billion dollars.
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DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM RADIO CLIPS March 16, 1983 8:00-8:05 AM MT CBS News Judy Muller reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 6297 Y More than a ton of hazardous waste for each man, woman and child in the country is dumped into the environment every year. that according to a Congressional study released this hour. The report by the .Df:f~_c_e of Technolo&y1' Assessme~~ says new Federal regulations aimed at controlling hazar~ous ~aste may not effectively detect, prevent or control those wastes, especially over the long term. Meanwhile the agency designated to enforce the country's environmental laws, EPA, is once again in the Congressional spotlight this morning. The acting administrator John Hernandez is testifying before a committee investigating allegations of mismanagement at the EPA. The panel is expected to ask him about charges that he allowed Dow Chemical Company to alter an EPA report on dioxin contamination. A spokesman for .. Dow, David Buselli says his company did not edit the report. Buselli: We review many papers throughout the year and then following our usual procedure, we contacted the author of the report and we gave him our comments. The EPA told us they would take our comments under advisement in the choice of whether they followed our recommendations or comments, or strictly the author's. Muller: A total of six Congressional committees are investigating the EPA.
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DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM March 16 19 8 3 2 : 0 0 -2 : o 5 PM MT CBS News Dallas Thompson reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 6 2 9 7 Y John Hernandez today made his first appearance on Capitol Hill since he became active EPA administrator last week. He was questioned by a House subcommittee about allegations the White House says are now being examined by the EPA inspector general. Hernandez conceeded that he permitted Dow Chemical Company in good faith, he said, to review a draft study that blamed Dow for dioxin pollution of two rivers in Michigan, but Hernandez denied that he ordered deletion of sentences that accused Dow of primary responsibility for the pollution. A report on a related subject was released in Washington today, summed up now by Sam Ford. Ford: The fice of Technolo Assessment today released a report wh1c says one ton o azar ous waste is added to the environment each year for every person in the United States and it says unless laws are toughened, the number of new dangerous sites is likely to grow faster than government and industry can clean up the old ones. At a news conference, Congressman John Dingle of Michigan and James Florio of New Jersey, announced they are introducing legislation to close loopholes in the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act to stop the trend. Dingle is chairman of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce. Dingle: We don't want it to be thought that we are critical of anyone. It is simply that an attempt must be made to bring this massive problem under control. Current monitoring and disposal practices appear to be inadequate. Ford: The Congressman complained that under current EPA regulations, companies or people who dump less than a ton of hazardous waste a month don't even have to report it to the government. Dingle's amendment would exempt only a tenth that much.
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OATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM March 1 o 1 9 8 3 10:00-10:05 AM MT NBC News Carol Possepski reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 6 2 9 7 Y A government report charges that EPA regulations do not assure consistent protection of human health from the effects of massive accumulation of toxic waste. Robert St. George reports. St. George: A three year study by the Congressional Office of. Technology cA~~e.~_sm.~n_1: warns that each year one ton of hazardous waste 1s a8ded to the enviroment for every person in the United States, but Congressional researchers found EPA's regulations do not effectively detect, prevent or control the release of toxic chemicals into the land, air and water. The report also advises it will cost as much as forty billion dollars to clean up.a substantial portion of the more.than fifteen thousand hazardous waste dumps in the United States. The study adds that current policies are likely to lead to the creation of still more uncontrolled waste sites~
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CATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM RADIO CLIPS March 1 6, 1 983 10:00-10:05 AM MT United Press International News Vickie Kelly reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 6 2 9 7 Y A Government report charges that EPA regulations do not assure consistent protection of human health from the effects of massive accumulation of toxic waste. Robert Saint George reports: Saint George: The three-year study by the Congress iroa JM! '-ll.:U G~ Q.:& TeglJnology Assessment warns that each year one ton of hazardous waste is added to the environment for every person in the United States, but Congressional researchers found EPA's regulations do not effectively detect, prevent, or control the release of toxic ch~micals into the land, air, and water. The report also advises it will cost as much as forty billion dollars to clean up a substantial portion of the more than fifteen thousand hazardous waste dumps in the United States. The study adds that current policies are likely to lead to the creation of still more uncontrolled waste sites.
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LOCATIO PROGRA CLIPS March 16, 1983 12:00 Noon-12:30 PM WTVJ-TV(CBS) Channel Four Miami News at Noon Gordon Stevens reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 6 2 9 7 Y A congressional study released this morning could cause some more problems for the EPA. The report from the Con ressional Off. of h olo Asse sment finds that or every man, woman, and child in America ere is more than a ton of hazardous waste dumped into the environment. And the study contends that the government doesn't fully understand how to control toxic waste. We have more now from Scott Leon. Scott Leon (CNN) reporting: The newly released three-year study of hazardous waste control conducted by the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment paints a disturbing picture reporting that at least two hundred and fifty-five million metric tons of hazardous chemical wastes are put into the environment each year. That is an average of more than a ton per American" It criticizes the government's efforts to detect, prevent, and control hazardous releases over the long term saying new federal regulations do not fully address the problem. The report lists a nightmare of environmental threats: more than fifteen thousand uncontrolled hazardous waste sites already listed with the EPA with more being discovered each year; an unreleased EPA study showing more than eighty thousand sites with contaminated surface water, ninety percent of which believed to be a threat to groundwater supplies; and another unreleased EPA study showing contamination of underground drinking water supplied in twenty-nine percent of the nine hundred and fifty-four cities tested. The study is highly critical of regulations encouraging burial of hazardous waste, but admits alternatives to bury ing could double the industries' costs Video cassettes are availat:,le ,n any format from our affiliate VIDEO MONITORING SERVICES OF AMER~A. INC, tor a penod of lour weei
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DATE TIME: NETWORK1 PROGRAM CATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM l I I RADIO CLIPS ~larch 16, 1983 11 : 0 0 11 : 0 S AM ~IT RKO '.\ehs Dean Shepherd reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 6 2 9 7 Y While Congress talks about what might happen, Congressional investigators say we had better do something fast about what's already.happening. American industry is producing a quarter billion tons of toxic waste every year--that's a ton for every one of us. Hirschorn: Much of that hazardous \,aste that's still being generated is going into the environment. That is, it's being managed in a way which leads to the disposal of the waste on the land. Shepherd: Joe Hirscho1n directed a three-year-long study f Or the Qf f j !t Of Techno J 9 ov s s C.Sm.e..o.-t..He says there are tens of thousands of waste dumps all over the country that.pose a threat to dtinking water, and thousands of other dump sites that aren't even controlled. March 16, 1983 9:00-9:05 AM MT Mutual Broadcasting System News Fred Lowrey reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 6 2 9 7 Y A three-year study of the EPA by the Qffige gf Tech_nology Assessmept concludes that agency regulations are not sufficient to do the job they were intended to do. Joel Hirschorn, who helped to compile the report, says of the EPA regulations: Hirschorn: They are quite ineffective in protecting public health and environment. So I think it's important for people to understand, al.though there may be changes in personalities at EPA, they have left behind a legacy of very in-adequate regulations and policies. Lowrey: Hirschorn's study noted too that the estimated 1.6 billion dollars that will be in the EPA's Superfund by 1985 would be at best ten percent of the total amount needed to clean up existing toxic waste durnpsi tes.
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ffil1r ~,tlt i!:ukr ulrilnutt SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH D. 110,710 S. 176,6~ MAR 17 1983 l New Proposals t Tighten Waste Laws FRONT PA
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m4tJnur1tul nf Olnmuurn NEW YORK, N..Y.. D, 22,_780 MAR 17 198 3~L. ------------Congress Moves to Tighten Waste Rules -----. By LEAH R. YOUNG Journal of Commerce Staff WASHINGTON -A new report by the QtUce Af 3,h201gx Ass;a~we~ has catapu t pro ems o soli '* waste disposal onto the front burner in Congress. Legislation is being introduced in both houses to close loopholes in the Resources Conservation and Recov ery Act to restrict e1emptlons for small generators. of hazardous waste and to prohibit disposal of certain wastes in landfills. Leaders on both sides of the -Capitol announced plans to move on new legislation Wednesday following publication by the congressional re search arm of a new report indicating that only 40 million metric tons of hazardous waste are regulated an nually by federal authorities, although 255 million to 275 million metric tons are produced. "Millions of (metric) tons of feder ally exempted hazardous waste dis posed in sanitary landfills pose substa n tia I risks," the OTA report warns. OTA is recommending that federal controls be extended to more hazard ous waste and that federal fees be imposed on waste generation as a way of funding cleanup and as an economic incentive to reduce generation of waste. On the House side, Rep. James Florio, D-N.J., the subcommittee chairman with purview over hazard ous waste in the House Energy and Commerce Committee, introduced legislation to narrow the definition _of small generators of waste, to restrict disposal of hazardous waste liquids in Dfu fi b 'lls landfills or into underground sources c' ns or new were of drinking water, and to regulate announced following industrial boilers that burn hazardous p bl at, n 0 t waste and waste oils. IC O 'J a But Rep. F_lorio said he will wait congressional report for a congres_s1onally mandated s~dy indicatina that only 40 by the Environmental Protection o Agency.on alternative fees to current million metric tons of Superfund cleanup taxes before de-h d signing legislation to chai:1ge the tax azar ous waste are structure from a tax on chemical and regulated annually petroleum fe_edstocks to a tax on 1th h pt 275 waste generatmn. a oug U o The present concern is plugging. million tons are produced. loopholes because at current waste production and control levels, there hazardous waste sites, let alone the will be more hazardous waste sites other 15,000 known hazardous waste after Superfund expires at the end of sites in the country," Sen. Hart 1985 than were known when the explained. legislation was enacted, Enei;-gy ~nd Between the two alternatives of Commerce Chairmah Rep. John Din. closing loopholes and waiting to degell, D-Mich., told reporters. velop a new tax progrllm, and imme This approach is echoed 'in the diately developing a new tax program Senate in proposals by Sen. Jennings for waste cleanup, is a proposal by Randolph, D-W.Va and Sen. John .the Senate's two New Jersey DemoChafee, R-R.I. This bill would close crats, Bill Bradley and Frank Lautenout the small generator exemption, berg. would require even mixtures with Their bill would extend Superfund small ainounts of hazardous waste to for five more years until 1990, continbe disposed of in hazardous waste uing to levy taxes under current landfills instead of dumps designed., formulas. Thit would double the for garbage, and would ban land resources available to $3.2 billion and .disposal of selected hazardous wastes. let. the public know that cleanup will But~ Sen. Gary Hart, D~Colo., continue, Sen. Bradley told a press introduced legislation Wednesday that conference. would create a new ten-year cleanup Sen. Bradley made it clear that his program with new taxes on waste extension-legislation is designed for generation, as suggested by the OTA quick passage in a period of emergen report. cy. But he does nof see it as exclusive "The current $1.6 billion Superfund from either legislation to close loop program wil not be able to clean up holes in the law or proposals to even half of the 418 official priority change the tax structure. The Hart bill builds on the OT A recommendation that economic incen tives be used to spur development of alternative disposal methods for hazardous waste. The OT A report suggests develop ment of a system that would shift collection of money ,for Superfund cleanup, "including the post-closure liability trust fund to start in 1M3," from feed stock materials "to hazardous waste generators." The Hart bill would impose taxes that vary according _to both the degree of hazard the waste entails and the safety with which it is handled. The fees would range from 50 cents per ton to $100 per ton for the most dangerous wastes deposited "in un-. lined landfills grandfathered from Environmental Protection Agency regulations." The bill envisions doubling the tax in 1990, "to maintain r~venues as landfill disposal and the production of the most hazardous wastes arephased out," Senator Hart says. The taxes would vary bas~ on whether the substance was "extremely hazardous," "highly hazardous" or "non-toxic", on whether the disposal was in a "secure" or "other" facility, and on the transportation distance between generation site jlnd disposal site. Thus, extremely hazardous wastes would be taxed $75 per ton in 1985-1990 for disposal in a secure area. This would rise to $100 per ton for other disposal. Transportation would b. e per ton. This would double in 19 1995. .... ,.___
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Wastes Seep Round the Law While Congress continues to pound the Environmental Protection Agen~ cy (EPA) for its mismanagement of toxic waste programs. the Office of Technology Assessment (OT A) has raised an issue that has more fundamen tal and long-lasting implications. The nation's laws and regulations for dealing with toxic wastes are full of loopholes and will ultimately prove inadequate for protecting public health and the environment. OTA says in one of its more outspoken reports.* In particular. OT A argues that the volume of hazardous waste produced each year is far greater than EPA has estimated. that the cost to the public of cleaning up old dump sites greatly exceeds the resources available under the so-called Superfund program, and that current regulations tend to favor the least environmentally acceptable means of waste disposal. The burden of OTA's message is that, in addition to ensuring that EPA properly enforces the hazardous waste laws. Congress needs to take a hard look at the laws themselves. According to OT A s estimates. some 250 million metric tons (tonnes) of hazardous wastes are generated each year in the United States, yet EPA regulates the disposal of only about 40 million tonnes. The bulk of the federally unregulated waste is material of relatively low hazard. such as fly ash from power plants. But a substantial quantity of highly toxic waste also escapes regulation because small producers-those that generate less than l tonne of hazardous waste per month-are exempted from the federal law. As a result. says OT A. "millions of tons of fedeqi.lly exempted hazardous waste [ends up inj sanitary landfills." where it poses "substantial risks ... Some toxic wastes also slip through EPA s regulatory net because they contain chemicals that, although clea'rly hazardous. are not on EPA s list of materials requiring regulation. Dioxin is a case in point. Par:tlY because of such loopholes. more and more dump sites are likely to. require cleanup in the future. adding to the immense cost of dealing with those that already require action. According to OT A s estimates. it will require between $ 10 billion and $40 billion to clean up a substantial fraction of the 15.000 sites so far identified as being in need of remedial action. The Superfund program is supposed to deal with those sites for which a culprit cannot be identified. But its resources-which are generated by a tax on chemical and petrochemical producers-will total only about $ J .6 billion by 1985. an amount that looks woefully inadequate. The OT A study points out that 80 percent of federally regulated wastes are now disposed of on land. The reason is that less hazardous alternatives such as chemical or thermal treatment are more expensive and federal regulations provide little incentive for their use. The report suggests that one way to encourage more desirable disposal techniques would be to establish a fee system under which companies would be charged according to the amount of toxic waste they generate. with higher fees imposed for wastes disposed of on land than by alternative means. Unlike Superfund fees. which are determined by the volume of materials used rather than the volume of waste produced. such a system would encourage more recycling of hazardous materials. the report claim~. Like Superfund fees. charges based on waste production would be used for cleaning up abandoned dump sites. The OT A study is likely to prove influential in congressional debates over the next few months. Representative James Florio !D-N.J.) has alread) introduced new legislation incorporating many of the report's recommenda tions. and its chances of passage by the House are considered good. Prospects in the Senate are more uncertain. however. Senator Robert Stafford (R-Vt.) chairman of the Senate environment committee last year kept legislation bottled up in his committee. But. given the public attention devoted to the matter this year. the pressures for action will be intense. -COLIN NORMAN "'lcchnoloti1_\ and .\1,11wgcmcnt SrrtllC,l.!ie.,_ti,r lla.-_ord111n \-'\"a.\lt' C,,rurol ((jo\crnmcnl Printing Otlil:e. Wa,,h,ngton D.C.. !9K~J. SK50. Science April 1, 1983 ___ ___ .. _. .... __ .,-::::;
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NEWS OF THE WEEK Chemical & Engineering News March 21, 1983 MANAGING TOXIC WASTES: More stringent rules on the way A bill to close regulatory gaps fo the Resource Conservation & Recovery Act is scheduled to be introduced soon by Rep. James J. Florio (D.-N.J.), chairman of the House Energy & Commerce's Subcommittee on Commerce. The amendments proposed in Florie's bill closely follow a policy option outlined in an Office of Technology Assessment study, "Technologies & Management Strategies for Hazardous Waste Control." This study found that current rules are not protecting human health from the "potential ef fects of massive annual accumulations of toxic waste." Florio's planned bill is similar to one passed by the House last year. He says it "closes the many loopholes in this nation's hazardous waste management system." Among other things, Florie's bill would whittle down the exemption for small-quantity generators to ex-Florio: legislation closes loopholes 6 March 21. T983 C&EN elude from regulation only those which generate one tenth of a ton per month of hazai'dous waste, down from the currently allowable one ton. It would prohibit outright land disposal of certain types of wastes and severely restrict dispos al of hazardous liquid wastes on land. It also would beef up enforcement efforts, and would specifically list dioxins as a hazardous waste as well as other "carcinogen and pesticide waste streams." Not covered by the Florio bill, but strongly proposed as a policy option by OTA is a "tail-end" fee or tax on hazardous waste generated to replace the "front-end" feedstock tax levied against the petrochemi cal industry under the Superfund law. This option, which was offered last week as legislation by Demo~ cratic Senators Gary W. Hart of Colorado and Daniel P. Moynihan of New York, would correct the inequities of the current fee structure, offer an incentive to alternatives to land disposal, and tie RCRA more closely to Superfund, says Joel S. Hirschhorn, OT A project manager. "The structure of the fee on generators would be designed to drive management choices and to be bi ased against land disposal," he says. The Chemical Manufacturers As sociation, which strongly advocated a tail-end fee during the 1980 Superfund debates, says the fee option makes much sense. According to CMA vice president and techni cal director Geraldine V. Cox, "The fee distributes the burden more equitably and creates an incentive for recycling and reuse of wastes." John D. Dingell (D.Mich.), chairman of the House Energy & Commerce Committee, who along with Florio requested the OTA study, stresses the "need to develop feder al programs for ... encouraging Dingell: encouraging recycling recycling, and improving industrial efficiencv to diminish the amount of waste that is produced in the future." Also supporting better waste management is the National Academy of Sciences, whose report, "Man agement of Hazardous Industrial Wastes," states that land disposal should be the management strategy of last resort, and recycling and waste treatment the preferred prac tices. The academy recommends that manufacturing processes be redesigned to capture resources, reduce waste volume, and treat any resi dues to make them less toxic. Though expensive, methods currently exist to treat and dispose of nearly every known toxic waste material, the report states. But as OT A stresses, preventing releases of hazardous wastes today may be IO to 100 times less costly than cleaning up a leaky waste site a decade from now, and compensating the victims exposed to that tox ic release. O
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f Chemical & Engineering News March 21, 1983 -The regulators and the regulated It is far too early to make any final assessment of what has been happening at the En. vironmental Protection Agency these past few weeks. The resignation of Administrator Anne Burford and the firing of other senior agency officials are only the outward manifestations of the bigger issue of this Administration's attitude toward the environment. Charges and counter-charges of cynical political opportunism, of a circuslike approach by Congress, of the placing of political expediency above principle, of inappropriate legal advice to the President and the agency, of the dark influence of environmental extremists and of Jt scare-mongering and rapacious press, of perjury, of conflict of in terest, of undue industrial influence, of mismanagement, of politically motivated manipulation of the Superfund program, of hit lists, and of the shredding of documents will all take a long time to sort out. But at -least one-thing seems reasonably certain. As far as the public is concerned, nobody .has a.mandate to weaken today's pollution control laws. The desire-indeed the-demand-for a healthy environment in which to live and bring up one's children is as strong today as it has ever been. It is not a partisan issue. The public has long seen :adean,healt~environment as a right, not as a privilege, and is willing to pay for it. Those :wno d.oubt.~is,-do so at their peril. Complaints that some of today's environmental regulations are unnecessarily costly, based-0npoorscience, almost impossible to administer, and make no real contribution to ~pro~gthe.environment are, in some cases,seemingly well-founded. Industry is correct innising these objections and pushing for a stronger voice in such matters : than lt had under J:he _previous Administration. But the trick for industry and for EPA jstoban~lesuch-issues in ways that do not undermine, in the public's eye, the role of ..the ,agency .as:the uncompromising-but fair and rational-guardian of a clean and :healthy;environment.It is-failure in this area that has brought on the uproar. The Administration's mistake has been to assume that it had public support for a shift toward a oosening of-environmental controls and that it therefore did not need the support-ofCongress. Industry's mistake has been to put itself in a position where it is perceived ,as being too cozy with the agency.This, in turn, has helped to undermine 'the agency :It-also has seriously set back the progress the industry itself was beginning to make toward an improved public: ~ei>ased on its very major.-l!fforts in recent :years ''to dean up 'a ~;, ; :. .,_ .. ~--';,;;. \.. .. .;.,.: : _-,...~~. >d ... A new ~port ~~pliblisnia ;by the 9'fice of Irtimei2sx AsHmlD,wt~ p~ov~de ._,:;:~~t~~;. bttle t::o?tfort for those who 'Javor less ~latiOI!-(see page 6 ol assue) .. OTA .IS a. '.; ,:-~~:-~-. nonpartisan spp6rt:tgeri9'~rvjng Congressl>y providi~g -analysis.and background / \'/ .;;x,; =-r : .on te~e1oSYbased'iissues.'lthas a solid nputation lorthroughness and objectivity. ;,,i~tt .. ,~The:firs~ two;para.~phs of,~_press .release coveril\g the report~tate:; ., ., _l~~-. '' .. ,. '''"EPA ~tions & not assure consistent ~tionwide levels o(?Qtection for human :. "'l:health 'froin fhej,otenlial ~ffects of massi~ annual eccumulations of .toxic: wastes. :',. :r-.tff-'tC:."i.111i'; --:rhesettgu1ations1or'hu.ardoiis wastemanagement do not effectively det~t, pre. ,lf'f1!~':,-J, ~:,'~$~r..:-:::::.::::::.::::r=~ :i~i:f;J'. as similar:sentiments being expressed on both sides of the aisle _in Congress, regr01:Y) .,~ t;J :_,, : ,?fromlti_ij,ol,itica1 fuiJ'iblings of these past :two years, examine the !Nay it has been 'd~iJ:lg :~::/i:-,;,;7_'!; ":; and quickly adj'!5't fo a~p~~l-~Y;:acceptable arms-le~gt!t rela-. i;;#-:,7<:;~t-i::: .. '"".tionsn'iow1ththe;.a-ncy:thatrevulates1t. ; ... '" !.~ _f:,, ; ... 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Nation Down in the Dumps at EPA partment suit pending over the compa ny's refusal to yield .technical data about its toxic emissions to the EPA. Hernandez was also blasted for block-The White House looks for a successor, Congress looks for dirt ing a voluntary plan by three smelting companies to clean up seriotll!J~ ccm,-:deep,,ersonn~Jandmoneytuts"supportetf!i: 'ta.mirllltion'i:tr'a ~poor; riiostlf"blacltaret'or-.,,ic,: W hen the Administration needed a caretaker for the battered Environmental Protection Agency as it searched for a permanent replacement for departing Administrator Anne Burford. John Hernandez seemed a perfect choice. A water-pollution expert and former dean of engineering at New Mexico State Uni versity. Hernandez had distinguished himself as one of the few top EPA officials not caught in the crossfire of charges about sweetheart deals. political manipulation. confuct of interest and mismanagement. Some of his colleagues caustical ly pointed out that he could credit his dean slate at least in part to his exclusion by Burford, he prepared supplemental Dallas.AnEPAstudyhadrevealeddanger budgets seeking more congressional ously high lead levels in the blood of neigh-funds. He also dismissed EPA Official borhood children. Instead, the EPA simply Louis Cordia, who two years ago com-ordered that residents be given blood tests piled a "hit list" of ideologically suspect and be instructed to "plant grass" to conagency employees. trol the lead dust and to "keep (their] At midweek the "fresh start" fizzled. homes clean." That advice did not satisfy Democratic Congressman James Scheu-many subcommittee members. Said Herer, who heads one of the six congressional nandezinexplanation: "Ifwewentoutand panels investigating the agency, charged started running bulldozers around, we'd that Hernandez personally intervened to end up with even greater hysteria." allow Dow Chemical Co. to edit a July Congressional committees continued 1981 agency report about dioxin contami-to stumble over one another last week in nation of two rivers and a bay near its their sometimes overzealous efforts to Midland, Mich., plant. EPA officials keep "Sewergate" sizzling. Democrats ;J::.l' An exploding cigar. Acting EPA Administrator Hernandez on the defensive before Congress "What we need now is a Afr. Clean. with no ties to industry and no conflicts of interest." from the agencys decision-making echeagreed to Dow's suggested deletions of Jon. He was lucky to get invited to meet-1 critical passages linking the deadly poison ings ... said a former EPA official. to fertility problems and birth defects, as But even such a seemingly safe choice I well as the conclusion that "Dow's dis for acting administrator has turned into an charge represented the major source, if exploding cigar for the White House. By not the only source. of [dioxin) contami weeks end three House subcommittees I nation in the waterways. and the EPA s inspector general were probTestifying before the House Public ing a spate of charges that Hernandez Works Oversight Subcommittee, Heman i made improper decisions benefiting indez acknowledged that he urged Valdas i dustry. Reagan aides. who had hoped that Adamkus, head of the EPA's Midwest reBurford's ouster would provide some gional office. to hear Dow out on the breathing space and subdue the impresreport but denied ordering him to let com i sion that the Administration has favored i pany officials make changes. In a stun polluters. were foiled. Groused one White ning public break with his bosses, howev-1 House official: Every time we tum er. Adamkus testified on Friday that his around. something is screwed up over staffers had been "forced" by Washington there. headquarters to strike out the passages. At first. things seemed to be going Hernandez was angry that the Midwest well. Although his chances were sllm, office had prepared the report in the first Hernandez began actively campaigning place, Adamkus said. and was "denouncto keep his job. signaling the \:Vhite House ing our report and calling the work of our that he coulct improve the agencys tarregional people trash.' Dow was saying nished image. In a sharp contrast to the little. in pan because there is a Justice De-culled EPA documents, looking for a trail of evidence that would lead to the White House. On Thursday the White House, which had long insisted that its files contained no internal reports on the notorious Stringfellow toxic dump in California, admitted that it did have two EPA reports confirming that Burford pn::pared to an nounce a grant to clean up Stringfellow last year but changed her mind at the last minute. There have been charges that the Administration delayed the cleanup in an effort to hurt the Senate campaign of Democratic Governor Jerry Brown. Both Congress and the EPA tried to take advantage of the rising public concern over hazardous wastes. Lawmakers introduced three bills designed 10 tighten federal control of the poisons and close the loopholes detailed in an alarming new congressional report. The EPA weighed in with its own announcement tightening controls on dioxin and other toxic substances. Compiled during three years by the Congressional Office of Techno~ssessment. the new study wariisinaf2Ss mIDion"io21s million tons of chemical poisons are being dumped in the U.S. every year, a ton for every person. It estimates.that it will cost from $ IO bil lion to $40 billion to clean up the waste. The charges against Hernandez forced the White House to accelerate its search for a blue-ribbon successor for the top job. a tricky matter since the nominee must be enough of an environmental advocate to withstand congressional scrutiny and yet fit in with the President's more minimalist approach to regulation. The leading contender was William Ruckelshaus, the first EPA administrator under President Nixon and now a senior vice president of Weyer haeuser, a wood and paper company. But his industry connections may make him suspect to environmentalists. Said Demo cratic Congressman Edward Markey: "What we clearly need now is a Mr. Clean. with no ties to industry and no conflicts of interest." -By,..,_,_Dowd. R,,,_-tedby JayS.a ep,/Was/Mgton -------,,, ___ .... _____ ,._,. --.. ------------------------'------------------
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The Los Angeles Times Friday, March 18, 1983 Toxic Wastes and Leaky Laws ,... ,, .... There is no longer any doubt that the Environ mental Protection Agency has made shoddy work of managing programs designed to keep poisonous chemicals from seeping out of disposal sites into the nation's water supplies. o~~~~~;;.~;.;;...: sugges em d ca an en us ~ement would fall short.because the programs themselves are flawed. Congress would do well to use some of the time that it now spends J:1JIIllllaging around the agency for wrongdoers to tighten up the laws. The report, three years in the making at the agency that specializes in advising Congress about the risks and gains of deploying technology, is a 4.ffl -page series of shocks. The amount of leftover poisons that are stored or dumped into ponds after they are used in various chemical processes in manufacturing is close to seven times as much as the amount that is nominally under federal control regulations. Some 400 dump sites in the nation are considered so dangerous that they are scheduled for cleanup under an emergency Superfund program-the principal recent target of congressional investiga tions. But, according to the new report, there are 80,263 pits, ponds and lagoons into which poison wastes have been dumped; 90% of these pose some degree of threat to water supplies in their regions. And the ultimate cost of the Superfund program could reach $40 billion--well above the $1.6 billion that bas been appropriated for the cleanup. Toxic-waste laws are, themselves, nearly as leaky as some of the dump sites that they are supposed to control. according to the report. Some dangerous chemicals are not even classified as hazardous wastes-Dioxin being the prime example. There is no system for following chemicals from cradle to grave; as a result, nobody really knows how much waste is produced. how many dump sites there are, and how many of those are dangerous. Finally, the report concludes that there probably is no such thing as a leakproof pond or basin for disposing of poisonous wastes, and yet that is how industry gets rid of 80% of its chemicals. The office that produced the report does not make recommendations to Congress, as such, but lays out a menu of options for action. In this case, however, it seems clear that the evaluators think that existing policies will just lead to more dangerous dump sites and that Congress should consider a system similar to regulations already in effect in California that would eventually phase out landfills for most chemical wastes by developing new techniques for disposal. The shift in direction would be more expensive in the short run, but probably would be cheaper in the long run tM!cause it would avoid crash cleanup programs. It also would be safer, and safety-rather than cost-should be the controlling criterion for Congress.
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CLS,. Study Finds Loopholes J~_TOXic _Waste Regulations By PHILIPM. BOFFEY Special to Tbe New Yort TllMI WASHINGTON, March 16 -An au thoritative Congressional study has concluded that Federal regulations gov eming:toxic waste disposal do not as sure "protection for human health" from "massive annual accumulations of hazardous waste." The 407-page report and'suppottirig documents, issued here. today by the Congressional Office of Technology As- sessment, charged that many loopholes 1 in Federal regulations allow ."poten.-. tiiilly hazardous waste to escape proper i management and oversight."'Dioxin, I one of the most toxic chemicals')tnoWn. is not even classified as.,a hazardous waste, the report noted. ,..,..11,, ,,~ ,. Moves are under way in both houses of Congress to "close the loopholes" re ferred to in the technology office-study. The study was initiated at the request of.,the House,. Commerce .Committee three yearsago and has no direct con nection to the latest furor over the Envi ronmental Protection Agency's management of the program to clean up hazardous wastes. But staff members -ofthe technology-office have assisted Congressional committees in their latest investigations of the environmental agency, and the report's criticisms dis close problems in waste disposal that are far more fundamental than the charges of political manipulation in the cleanup program. Warning on Extent of Waste .The study warns that 255 to.275 tnil lion metric tons of hazardous waste are being generated in the United States every year, roughly a ton for every per son. That ~timate is far above previous E.P.A. estimates that 40 million tons are being generated and regulated. The vast discrepancy reflects differing defi, nitions of what constitutes hazardous waste -many states use a broader definition than the environmental ag~ncyand the use by the technology off:ce of more comprehensive and more up-t<>-date information. The report, entitled "Technologies and Management Strategies for Haz ardous Waste Control," was prepared by staff members of the technology assessment office, a research agency that evaluates complex technical issues for Congress, with the help of outside contractors and an advisory panel of ex perts from industry, universities and environmental groups. It appears to be the most thorough and comprehensive review of hazardous waste policies yet published. The report is critical of vittually every phase of the nation's hazardous w:aste management program. ;lt criti cizes Federal and state regulatory progra~s for failing to cope with the immediate hazards posed by toxic waste disposal, and it suggests that the long term strategy of burying toxic wastes in supJX>:ledly secure landfills is apt to backfire because it is "highly proba~le" that "hazardous constituents" will eventually leak out. A similar indictment of the long-term hazards of land disposal was issued tod~y by an expert committee of. the National Academy of Sciences the cow:itry_'s most prestigious scientific or gamzat10n. The academy's report on "Management of Hazardous Industrial ~astes'' urgeft industry to reorganize its manufacturing processes to reduce the volume of wastes or else-treat the wastes to make them less hazardous. Only as a last resort, it said should landfills or underground storage be con sidered. Critical of Landfill Option '.'Th~.use of landfills should be mini mized, the academy report said be cause many toxic chemicals reri-iain ~ous ~or more than 560 years and will. very likely migrate over long peri ods mto groun~water." Toe report said that technologies already exist that are "ca1?3-ble of_ dealing with every hazardi_ndustnal waste in a manner that elun~;1ates. the need for perpetual storage. But_ 1t conceded that many of the t~hnologi~ were prohibitively expensive, and 1t called for more complete ~omic evaluations and research to 1mp~e various treatment and manufactunng techniques. Representative James J. Florio, Democrat of New Jersey, chairman of the House subcommittee that requested the study by the Office of Technology Assessment, said at a news conference hez:e today that he was introducing legislation to "close the loopholes" that allow ."massive amounts of toxic waste~" to escape Federal regulation. He said the legislation, similar to a bill that was passed by the House but not the Senate last year, would deal with the ~hort-term problems identified by the technology office and would leave the longer-term issues tor further study. Sepator Jell!1~g~ Randolph, Democrat of West V1rgm1a, said he and Senator John H. Chafee, Republican of RJlO?e Island, had already introduced a bill m the Senate to "close many of the loopholes described in the O.T.A. The New York Times Thursday, March 17, 1983 _study," 'lbe technology office's study charged that the $1.6 billion program to clean up abandoned hazardous waste sites might prove "bieffective in the long term" be-. cause it generally solved a problem at one burial site by moving the wastes to t another site, where the material was bound to leak out years later. The study also estimated that while $1.6 billion will have been collected for the cleanup b~ 1985, some $10 billion to $40 billion Will be needed to clean up the 15 000 i sites where toxic wastes are known to haw been dumped without controls. BW for $15 Billion Program In an effort to meet this problem Senator Gary Hart, Democrat of ColO: ~d~, proposed a bill for a 10.year, $15 billion program. Ibe technology office .study put most of its emphasis on inadequacies in the regulati~ designed to insUre safe treatment and disposal of newly gener ated wastes. It charged that the program has been "characterized by delay, false starts, frequent policy re versals, and litigation." It charged that E.~ .A.'s definitions of hazard and ana lytical tests to determine toxicity were often"not related" to the "actual haz. ard" of the waste. As an example the i study said that "a number of inmis'trial I w~es contai~g significant levels of d~olClllS, chlonnated organics, or pestiad.es are not now regulated as hazardous wastes and cannot be shown to be toxic by E.P.A.'s test for toxicity." The study concluded that the monitor ing requirements at burial sites and treatment facilities "may prove inade~te to detect leakage before substan tial contamination has occurred.''
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The waehington Post Thursday, March 17, 1983 Policy on Wastes May Create-Risks, Hill Study Finds By Cass Peterson Washt1111ton PosL Staff Writer Hazardous wastes are accumulating in the United States at the rate of more than a ton a year for every resident, and federal controls are inadequate to protect human health from their potential ef -fects, a congressional study reports. Government policies and regulations are even likely to create new risks in the future, according to the three-year study, released yesterday1 by the Office of Technology Assessment. : The assessment office, a nonpartisan research arm of Congress, said Environmental Protection Agency regulations encourage the disposal of toxic chemical residues in landfills, even though the EPA acknowledges thati landfills will leak eventually. It also said federal policies may be reducing the costs to industry of landfill disposal by "shifting some long-term cleanup and monitoring costs to the government or society as a whole." The report was released at a news conference by Reps. James J. Florio (D-N.J.) and John D. Dingell (D-Mich.), who said they would introduce legislation to deal with the regulatory gaps identified in the report. Florio failed to win passage of similar legislation last year. The technology assessment report suggests that the options for dealing with hazardous wastes come down to a choice between an expensive ounce of prevention or an even more expensive pound of cure. By providing economic incentives for technologically advanced waste disposal, such as incineration or recycling, the government may save money in the long run, it said ... ,. --------""'. "Cleaning up a site ... and compensati~g. vie tuns might cost 10 to 100 times the additional costs incurred today to prevent releases of hazard ous materials," it said. The report cited the example ~f ~ew York State's infamous Love Canal, where 1t said d1Spos al of the waste dumped there decades ago woul~ now cost $2 million. The Love Canal cleanup 1s expected to cost more than $10? million, a~d $2 billion in personal damage lawsuits. are pending. Meanwhile, Senate Democrats m~roduced two bills in response to another conc.lu~1on of the report, which said that the $1.6 b1lhon Superfund, created in 1980 to help clean up the worst of the nation's toxic dumps, will not come close to paying for the job. One, introduced by presidential candidate. ~en. Gary Hart (D-Colo.), would create _a $15.2 ~1lhon, 10-year Superfund. A less sweepmg version offered by Sens. Bill Bradley and Frank R. Lautenberg goth New ,Jersey Democrats, would extend the f~nd at the same level until 1990. The report said it would cost from $10 _b1l~on. to $40 billion to clean a "substantial fra~t1on of the more than 15,000 inactive dump sites that have been identified. It also said some of the Superfund ,,cleanups may "prove ineffective in the long term beca~se cleanup standards are vague and "there is an m centive to minimize initial costs." As a result. wastes are often transferred from one land~ll to another, whichJUay require its own cleanup m the future.
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USA Today Thursday, March 17, 1983 I Bill would add billions, teeth to Superfund. ,, .. Spec1al for USA TODAY N ,j -:and. J obn Dlngeil, :oMiclL,:tntroduced legislation to WASHINGTON -The Envi~ close loopholes tliat weake.n, ronmental Protection Agency's laws governing management Supertund would balloon to $15 id control of toxic waste. billion under legislation intro- Tbe EP A's acting head, duced Wednesday, and thEt hn Hernandez Jr.:; was ques-agency would get more muscle t:f>nedsharply by a House sub to shut toxic waste dumps. committee over whether he Sen. Gary Hart, D-Colo., a doctored an EPA report given presidential candidate, sponto the Dow Chemical Co. sored the measure to beef up Hernandez said he let Dow the Supertund over 1 O years. review a study that criticized it The $1.6 billion account, creat but denied he changed it He ed to clean up toxic waste sites, said he ''Was concerned about is funded with a tax on petro-'. the accuracy of the report and leum and chemicals. It's due to: ~e capability of the people to expire in 1985. draw the condusions." AJso Wednesday: A flnal version of the 1981 A study by the congresstodocument dropped all refer nal Office of Technology Asences to Dow's responsibility sesmnent said at least 225 mil tor dioxin pollution in. Michl Hon metric tons of baZardous gan rivers and Lake Huron. ~cal waste -almost a tQn Rep. James Scheuer, D-N.Y., .~-fo. ,rf'ea,~ American ..~,;;;. -@-ijern ... andez,,)Yatkre',UriifS"tnto the enVironmenr ~hstb1ltqr changes lo the:r,~ each year. Some 15,000 waste port ,. I dumps have been found and Dioxin, which can cau. s. e more are listed annually. cancer; is a byproduct of Dow,'s Reps. James Florio, D herbicide manufacturing. ~--.. ~iJ----
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,._.. "' --~ 1: t ... ,,.,.~ ,,. --1~ LUt"""' '-': # --~ ...... -.. ~--NEW YORK, N.Y. D. '173,255 SUN, 1,430,358 JAN 6 198~ Neiv 1fciy~S~ught At Love Canal ,. NIAGARA PALLS, N.Y., iU:. (AP) New York's United States Senators have requested a new Fed eral study to determine if the Love canal area fs now safe for residents. The Senators Alfonse M. D' Amato, a Republican, and Daniel Patrick Moynihan, a ~t said~ey=theaP lit m itimrlll fin-tshed by the spring. .. :Last spring, the United States Pub lic Health Service said the Love Canalneighborhood, the site of a former chemical dump, was as safe as otherindustrializ.echections of the na.. tion. Earlier this week, the State Attor ney General, Robert Abrams, said he would f'lle suit. if necessary, to keep the Niagara Falls Redevelopment Agency from reselling homes at Love Canal without a prior environmental study. ,.
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Managing Commercial High-Level Radioactive Waste
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STAR.and Tribune MINNEAPOLIS, MINN. o. 234,730 S. ?73,800 ~i JAN 21 1983 ., ,. ... ""-~ -~, ,., ;, ... l?isposm~-!~uclear waste, safely. The biggest obs J~clear-waste man-objective criteria. The final test should be cost and agement, _the QUjfe of T~floJZXpssessm' told ,safe.ty~ not who In Congress has the most clout I Congress last spnng, {s e severe eros on of public conf(dence that the federal government Congress did gtve states the right to veto wastein light ot its past performance actually can and dump sites. A veto would stand unless overridden will do the job." Federal pasf performance was by both houses of Congress. federal nonperformance. Legislation to establish a t _. . _.... .. national waste-management system sat in Congress Despite environmentalists' objections, the legtsla. four years. immobilized by parochial bickering. tion also provides temporary federal storage of Last month. however, Congress redeemed. itself. A utility-reactor wastes. Delays In permanent dtsposnuclear-waste bill was whipped into shape and al bavemade temporary federal storage nec~ry. passed during the lame-duck session. President Utilities wlll soon run short of room to hold spent Reagan signed the act Jan. 7. It was about time. fuel at ,their reactors. Congress Imposed rea. sonable time and quantity limits on the temporary The legislation directs the secretary of energy lo storage to ensure that it does not become permachoose five potential sites for the first permanent nenl Moreover, utility fees will finance both temnuclear-waste storage. Possible sites are ln Washporary and _permanent storage, ensuring that those lngton, Texas, Nevada, Utah, Louisiana and Mlssiswho benefit from nuclear power will beat the cost sippi. By Jan. 1, 1985, the secretary must' recomof Isolating and securing.the waste. mend three sites for further study. By March 31, 1987. the president must recommend one site to Congress. By the mid-1990s, the first repository should be in operation. A second storage site must be selected by March 31, 1990. The granite formations of northern Min nesota and Wisconsin are being considered for this second site, along with areas of the eastern United States. To its credit, .congress put down efforts to prohibit nuclear-waste dumps in particular states and legis lative districts. The final bill appears free of such favoritism. The legislation establishes a fair proce-dure for testing all potential burial grounds against I\ The hardest choice still Iles ahead, when the administration and Congress must actually select a site. There seems little question that the technology and geology exist to store nuclear wastes safely for the thousands of years required. While bequeathing nuclear wastes to future generations is unattrac tive, the bequest was assured with the first nuclear reactor, and ts reassured each day as Americans heat their water and llght their homes and businesses with nuclear-generated electricity. Govern ment's responsibility now ts tQ ensure that this toxic bequest poses the least possible risk to humans and the earth. The new waste-disposal plan acknowledges that responsibility. -~
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iG.as J\.ttgeu.a Uiune.s LARGEST CIRCUlATIOJI Ill nfE WIST LOS ANGEL$ CAL o. 1.000.945 s. 1 ,234,115 ~. DEC 24 1982 i lt!>t Garbage .. .. ;; I? .. ; .. : Mahy years after the fact. the United States has a plan f91" disposing of the radioactive waste generated by_tts power planti and weapons plants. 'n)e approach will not satisfy nuclear power's ,everest cri~ because not much will change in the next few. year,s. But it is the first such plan on which Congras has.been able to agree,.and it does follow ~e outlines of the most thorough analysis of the problem to date~ It is, at worst, a case of better late t.ban never, and the plan may well work. i Under the plan, the stockpile of hot garbage that has accumulated~ th~ dawn of the Nuclear Age will be kept above ground in existing or expanded storage tanks at power plants while geologisti look fpr places to bury it. permanently. In niaD)' ways, the nuclear-waste program, one of the few aolid achievements of the lame-duck session of the 97th Conaz:ess, is more a triumph of accommodation than of technology. Geologists have until the year 2000 to prepare vaults that will seal in radioactivity until the year 12,000~ But Congress says it is willing to settle for 100 ye~ of temporary storage above ground in case fJle technicians miss their deadline. Sta~es whose geology makes them prime sites for permanent disposal vaults have broad veto powers under the plan. But the alternative is something akin to a nuclear dictatorship that would give Washington the right to force a nuclear dump on any community. Congress' approach is preferable. The nuclear-waste program is bound to expose the weakness of various interest grQups for finding broad philosophical meaning in essentially minor events. .. The nuclear industry, for example, will interpret the program to mean that the last barrier to expanding nuclear power has been overcome. < ._ 1-' ... .. ., E~vironmentallsts will point to the te~rarystorage feature as evidence that there ts no way to resolve the nuclear-waste ~blem. Neither view is valid._ ;. .. The most important feature of the plan probably is that it acknowledges that the nation has waited so long to settle its nuclear-waste issue that nothing can be done overnight.. . Following generally tlle findings of its own~ pf TosbDP)ggy 6P. Congress would~ power plants store eir7F spent nuclear fuel rods until permanent vaults are ready. That would avoid the. expense of building temporary_ central storage .facilities as well is the risks of. moving the spent fuel around too Jnuch. : I Power plants have accumulated-.S.000 tons of nuclear waste so far, and will generate-16,000 more tons by 1990. The plan ~es that there is room at .most power plants to expand storage facilities until permanent burial sites are chosen. ;: The focus of the plan ts on nuclear waste from power plants. but the disposal vaults would also be used for waste from weapons manufacture unless a President declared the vaults inadequate. The weak point of the bill ts a loophole that opens the way for putting off permanent disposal for as long as 100 years with interim depots for above ground storage. Over the next several years, Congress should emphasize to the energy bureau cracy that will find and build the permanent vaults that it does not plan to use the loophole. The strong point of the bill is that it finally gives federal officials both the authority and the money to get serious about a project that they have wanted to run with for years. That does not solve the nuclear-waste problem. But it makes it possible to try, and that i~ a major step forward. ... : '\ ... ,. __J .. ,...
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Technology and Steel--_.: -~ Industry C~mpetitiveness
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As St el alters Fi ht For Th irSonivalNot in decades has this bellwether industry been so flat on its back. Its future may hinge on how fast it sheds old mills-and old ways. Massive new layoffs by Bethlehem Steel and the closing of one of its large mills are just the latest examples of a painful upheaval that is altering one of ,\merica's biggest, most basic industries. With staggering losses, some of the \Vorld's highest-paid production workers and competition from low-cost producers abroad, virtuaHy all U.S. steelmakers are sheddim; obsolete plants and equipment, trimming their payrolls and diversifying into other businesses. .-\t the same time. the companies are searching for ways to boost productivi ty. control wages and restrain shipments of imported steel, which have c:.iptured 22 percent of the U.S. market. Out of this dark period, the big integrated steelmakers expect to emerge permanently slimmer, but healthier, in much the manner that the auto indus try is being transformed. Instead of producing full lines of products. they are likely to specialize in those that offer the greatest return. "I think our situation is reversible," insists Chairman David \!. Roderick of LS. Steel. "I don't think ing at Bethlehem, which will cease almost all operations this year at its Lackawanna, N.Y., plant and combine some operations in the Johnstown, Pa., mill. In 1982 alone, Bethlehem took steps to sell oi; dose about 20 percent of its $1:eelmaking capacity, while seeking to make its remaining facilities more productive. Bethlehem's latest moves will mean the loss of jobs for 10,000 of its 82,000 employes, 30,000 of whom are already laid off. The bad news. For the industry as a whole, the statistics are grim. More than one third of the country's 450,000 steelworkers are laid off. At least half won t be called back even after a busi ness recovery hits full stride. Not one of the eight biggest steel companies will report a profit for 1982, and their aggregate losses are expected to ex ceed 3 billion dollars. Specialty steelmakers, who make alloys, are being squeezed by imports. The small .. mini mills" that flourished in the l 960s and l 970s by using cheaper labor and scrap metal are severely hurt bv the business slump. Republic Steel alone has idled 14,000 of the 40.000 employes it had at the start of 1982 and put another 4.000 on short workweeks. Bethlehem Steel wants to sell plants it has operated since 1930 in Los Angeles and Seattle. and has cut plans for capital spending next vear lw 7."i million dollars. LS. Steel slashed saLmes of :20,00U manage ment-level emploves-bv up to ,30 percent rn the cas.e of top ext~cuti\es. Wheelmg-Pittsburgh Sted trimmed management pav bv lU percent. With mills operating below 60 percent of capacity for almost a year and under 45 percent since summer, steelmakers probablv will produce less steel in 1982 than in any nonstrike vear since the 1940s. Production rates since late October have dipped to levels of the Great Depression. This period could represent steel's low point--or so top executives hope. But even if order books begin to fill up a bit in 1983, it could be 1984 or later before employment and output perk up sharply again. "I don't think there s any question that steel will again be profitable in the United States: savs Carnegie-Mellon University President Richard \.-1. Cyert. an economist who watches the indus try closely from his position in Pittsburgh. "However. it will never again be as large an industrv as it has been. There will be a lot of plants that never come back, and a lot of labor that will never be rehired. But that will help make it a healthier industrv once de-mand picks up. Adds Joel Hirschhorn of Congresss office of technologv assessment: A couple of years down the lme, I think we're going to have a more modern. more competitive, smaller domestic steel industry. Those who remain are going to be in better shape ... :\ot the least of the industrvs tasks the industry is going to dis :.ippear. I think the indus try has the opportunity to get its legs under it again and get back in the race. Profits Evaporate right now is to d~al with changes in the demand for steel. For example. as Detroit makes cars smaller and lighter. the amount of ,kel going into them drops. from l.fi tons per car in 197(-i to just over a ton now. Todav, onh l.S p~0rcent of all steel is used in the automotive indus trv. compared with almost 24 percent in 1980. By the end of this decade. says Roderick. steelmaking capacity in Ameri ca could be l tl percent below what it was only 10 years before. Some companies rnav fall by the wayside. "It is possible to visualize fewer surviving producers... adds Thomas Graham, president of Jones & Laughlin Steel. .. Inevitably. there will be plant closings and department closings within plants. The industry can t suffer the kind of economic reverses that we are now experiencing a~? 197 19 lW,UJltain the status~ .,..,,----That's what is happen~ .... 1983 S3.5 bil. Losses for all of 1983 could be as high as 3 bllllon dollars. First 9 monlhs. USN&~a.s,c dala: "'""'1can ,roo&Steeil~Fodera/ Traoe Comrni9sion -s1.3 bil." To cope. ,teelmakers arc di\ersifving into other businesses. :\ational Steel now owns a savings and loan institution with bLmches in Culifornia. .'\ew York and Florida. Armco has dropped Steel from its name and aims for carbon steel to account for ont~-29 percent of its as sets by 198,'5, down from 6.3 percent in 1976. l.s. Steers f-i-billion-dol-43
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j ., I lar acquisition of Marathon Oil in 1982 was part of the company's long-range strategy to make itself less dependent for profits on the steel business. Even before the purchase, the steelmaker was redeploying assets and raising cash by selling its cement business as well as timberland and coal reserves. The goal: To make steel account for as little as one third of its revenues, as opposed to two thirds now. "Our company was too steel sensitive," says Roderick. "We. were subject to the most vio lent movements in the economic cvcle. We were way out at the end of the whip.,. Worldwide trends in steel are also a factor. The United States no longer produces more than half of the world's steel, as it did follow ing World \Var II. In stead, it is competing not only with Japan and West Germany but also with such nations as Korea and Brazil, which added new steelmaking capacity to the world market at a time ,e when overall demand was slackening. In short, more steel producers than ever are fighting for a share of a smaller worldwide market. "The world steel industry is overbuilt, prices are likely to be weak for some time and the re turns to investment in steel are simply not there," observes Robert Crandall. a senior fellow at the Brookings Institu tion. "The steel companies, quite rightly I think, are looking to put their mon ey elsewhere, not plow it back into steel assets that simply don't pay off." But steelmakers still will invest in their basic business, if potential gains are attractive. U.S. Steel is constructing a 690-million-dollar pipe mill in Ala bama, and Jones & Laughlin a 160million-dollar steel-casting facility near Chicago. To Roderick, having other business legs to stand on means that steelmakers will be able to make such in vestments in the future with more assurance. ..What the move toward \itarathon does is give us stability and make us financially stronger," he points out. "With our other businesses, we can take that chance on an investment in steel because the total structure of the company can bear it." Lessons from abroad. Another route that steelmakers are pursuing is higher productivity. Today, the American industry is roughly 10 percent behind the Japanese in production effi ciency and is trying to catch up, even if Sad walk home tor Bethlehem worker in Lackawanna, N. Y. Older mills are being closed to cope with biggest sag In output In decades. it means learning from the Japanese. Just this year Armco sent a delegation to Japan to study Nippon Steel's operations-a trip that was followed by two visits by Nippon people to Arm co's main plant in Middletown, Ohio. Out of it all came a 10-inch-thick man ual of Nippon recommendations, many of which have already been adopted. Thin top-surface layers of steel slab, for instance, are now removed entirelv to eliminate rust and rolled-in dirt.....:.im perfections that had been removed spot by spot with acetylene torches. "What thev reallv did was save us from having to. reinvent the wheel," says Donald Keffer, assistant to the Middle town plant's manager. Reaping benefits this way is particu larly attractive at a time when huge financial losses constrain the abilitv to modernize. Jones & Laughlin shaved the number of man-hours needed to make a ton of steel from 6.09 in 1976 to 4.85 in 1982 without major new in vestments. Instead, it focused on new D manufacturing procedures and better employe relations. "Our motives are obvious," notes J&L President Gra ham. "We just don't have the capital to do everything we know how and would like to do." The steel companies may end up gaining far more from such methods than from warfare with the United Steelworkers over wage concessions. Right now, employment costs exceed $23 an hour, or about double those in Japan and Western Europe. Yet some steel executives doubt that labor costs can be brought in line. "About all "ve may succeed in negoti ating is a pause in this otherwise con tinuous upward trend," savs Graham of Jones & Laughlin. "We live in a coun try conditioned to a constantly .rising standard of.living, and steelworkers are in the mainstream of that. Their expec tations are the same." Even so, fears are growing that the industry may be headed toward a strike next August when the current master contract expires. Local-union leaders in mid-November soundlv rejected an early attempt to fashion a new contract that would cut workers' pay temporarily and save the industry more than 1 billion dollars in 1983. A ray of hope. Of late, rhe industry .has succeeded better in arresting the flood of steel imports into the United States. The steelmakers got the Europe an Common Market to limit exports to the U.S. for the next three vears. Still being sought is a similar agre~ment lim iting Japanese shipments. With limitations on imports, a mod est labor contract without a strike and an improved economic climate, U.S. steelmakers believe thev '"'ill enter a brighter era. What they refuse to accept is that the U.S. needs no steel in dustry in the electronic age, or that theirs is a dying business. As Armco Chairman Harrv Holidav puts it: .. The steel industry i; going t~ be smaller, it's not going to be as profit able, and companies like ourselves are going to move into other things. But the United States is going to be the industrialized power of the world for many, many years to come, and steel is going to be a part of it." 0 By C\REJ" W ENGI..ISH
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DEC ., u LU lfb/L. 1982 1 O 000 to loSej()bS in }teel --' lei yQ~S > I ffl;~d ;f~r -~te~i })~~dlKtS, aethleheffi Johnsto~n reor;abizatiOn Will re IHWN l PP.~be Loss An~e C said yesestimates that the U.S. steel indusduce Bet~lehem s ann~a! steelmak ; -Bethlehem tee orp. ted at 31 percent to 35 ing capacity by 3.5 million tons terday that it will permanently lay try opera in December_ e ual to about 15 percent of the off up to 10,000 employee~l early ih!cf:~:!t~r:g!t~e Depression. c~mpany's steel~making capability next year and sharply curtat oper at the beginning of 1982. ation at its Lackawanna. N.Y., and "It's pretty grim," steel analyst Johnstown, Pa., plants, thus reduc.; Richard I. McClow said of the ing its steel-making capacity by 15 Industry. Industry observers have percent. estimated that more than 140,000 A total of 7 .~oo jobs will be lost at Lackawanna when Bethlehem discontinues the plant's integrated steel-making primary mills, hot strip mills and some fini~hing op_er ations that are involved m reducang The move is another attempt by U.S. steel workers f?u: out of the ailing steel industry to cut costs every 10 have lost their )Obs as a n the face of heavy losses brought' result of the slowdown L uv the worldwide recession, ID~ THE LACKAWANNA AND See STEEL, Page A-7 creased imports and reduced de--. -. ~--Steel Continued from Page One cold-rolled sheets. About 1,300' per sons are expected to be working at Lackawanna when the consolida tion -is completed. Between 2,300 and 2,700 jobs will be eliminated at Johnstown. Employment is expected to be be tween 2..600 and 3,000 there at the end of 1983._ The 10,000 jobs affected include 6,600 workers at the two factories who already have been laid off. Bethleh,m has a total of 52,000 working employees and 30,000 em ployees on layoff, a company spokesman said. A SPOKESMAN AT the United Steelworkers headquarters in Pitts burgh said the union had no com : ment on the Bethlehem announce ment. but a union official who oversees the Lackawanna factory said he was surprised. "I'm in a state of shock right now," said Mitchel Mazuca, an elected director for the Steelwork ers based in Buffalo, N.Y. "But knowing how bad the business was going, you are not supposed to be shocked anymore. It looks pretty much like it's closing down." Trautlein said Bethlehem decided to close some operations "due to the losses that we have been exoerienci:g at these facilities and the lack of r~a:.;onahle prospects for their adequate future profitability." .,, ... The reorganization "should have only a limited effect on Bethlehem's revenues and total shlpments_under expected market conditions," he said. ... BETHLEHEM HAD PREDICTED "substantial losses" for the fourth quarter of 1982. The company reported a $322. 7 million loss for the first nine months of .1982, compared with net income of $179.8 million for the same period of 1981. It cannot' predict if It will have to close more factories, a company spokesman said. The 10,000-worker layoff is not the largest in company history, a Bethlehem spokesman said. Bethle hem laid off 12,000 employees as recently as 1977, mainly in Lacka wanna and Johnstown. That cut back eliminated about 2.6 million tons of annual capacity. Industry analyst McClow said Bethlehem is dosing inefficient fa cilJttes, which should improve the efficiency of its remaining operations. The remaining factories are newer, and as a result any future shutdowns probably will be tempo rary, McClow said. But Joel Hirschhorn, project di rector with the congressionaUlf.:. Us;~ rJ .Ie<;11AAI2gv ~e!l~f\enT. sa1 he expects-more'to .. come._,..,.... "I don't think we're done. I think we'll see more from other compan ies... Hirschhorn saip. "There are going to be more pla~ts clos!ng. It's as clear as can ) be, he said. _.J
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SALEM, OHIO NEWS D. 11,035 DEC 18 198 2 Steel FirmS PresSure President OnQuotas '1,;;. 'i7y By Rll'HARD J.MALOv' "If they succeed against Administration won't go along Washington Bureau ,Japan, then. the domestic with them,'' ~aid one industry WA~HINGTON. Th_e steelmakers will try to deal sou~e,~e!e who asked not to Amencan steel industry 1s with the developing countries be 1dentif1ed. trying to pressure the Reagan that sell steel here" added "The Japanese have been Administration into imposing Hirschorn. very careful, very prudent. world-wide qu_otas 1n the The case filed with William The whole target of ll!is ~ase is amount of ~ore1~n s~el that Brock, President Reagan's not. the ,Japa!~ese, ,t_ 1s the can be sold m this country. special trade representative White House, the industry That is the view of industry argues that an agreement by source added. expe:ts in the wake of massive Japan in 1978 to limit steel U.S._ Steel Chairman David unfair trade ,charges lodged imports to the European Roderick, who announced the a~ainst Japanese steelma~ers Common Market caused a trade complaint again~t the this week by the ,:\m,encan massive diversion of Japanese Japanese at a Washington I~on ai:id Steel Institute and steel to this country. It asks a p~ess conference. also met e1,,ht big steel firms. cut of about one third in the six w1tl: congres~men from steel We have. already made a million tons of Japanese steel regions to brief them on the quota de~~ with E!,lropean ste~l imports annually. cas?.. makers, said Albert The case also charges the ~1th the aJd of congressional McCauler, a lawyer .Japanese Yen is deliberatlv allies, the md~stry hopes to ~epresentmg st~el 1m~rters. undervalued to make pr:essul-e ~ri:~1dent Reagan But that deal 1s meamngless Japanese steel and other mto p~otectl~mst steel quotas, unless we can get th~ Japanese products less costly in worJd R~e,r1ck, acknowledged. to agr~ ~o quotas. markets. rt asks President ~': hope our government 1s A similar. reaction came Heagan 10 impose a 25 _percent sens1t1ve enough to take a real from Joel H1rschorn, a steel surcfiarge on imports of steel hard look at th~ case a!"d expert o~ the staff. of thc:i from Japan. ~ccelerate the relief," ~e said. Congress1onal f1 In response to filjng of the If they are sympathetic they :chn?I \ case. a statement by the can m~ve very f~st. If they are _1 quc1 y 11 :s n steel ,Japanese Steel Information not_ sympathetic, they are 1s~?es _before Congress. Office in New York said: saymg they are not overly Thi~ strategy b~ the "Tilere is absolutely no proof ~oncerned about the ~tee! domestic st~elmake~s 1s not of charges we diverted steel 1ndustr~, and our national unexpected: he s~ud of the from Europe to the U.S. or are defens~. ne~ case filed agamst Japan involved in any other practice In t~e p~st, the Reagan which_ seeks to slash Ja~anese to harm the American steel Admm1strat10n has shown no steel imports by one third. industry eagerness to erect protec.,. tionist trade barriers in behalf :he stateme!"t said similar of the steel industry. It tonk a charge~ were fde_d by the U.S. vear for mod<.,st relief in the i;~eel. industry m 1976_ and European case, and a d1sm_1ssed by the pres1~en~ specialty steel case charging special trad~ represent~t1ve m unfair trade will not be decided Januar~ 19,8 as havmg no until 18 months after its foundation. original filing. Industry experts here said As this m'o11U1 got underway, the new unfair trade case filed steel mills were operating al 31 against Japan was phase two percent of capacity, 160,000 of the domestic steel industry's steelworkers were on layoff efforts to curb foreign comand 20,000 more were working petition. They are using a short weeks. Average different legal approach, production so far this year has because they have no proof been only 48 percent of Japanese steel is either subcapacity. sidized or being dumped here However in settling the at below market prices. rec.ent industry complaint "They want to restrain steel against European steel imimports from all sources, but ports, the International Tl'ade the problem is that the Reagan Commission minimized the impact of imports on jobs. Eliminating "unfair" imports would generate, at most, only, 2,500 jobs. one ITC com-! missioner said. I 1
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Informational Technology and Its Impact on American Education
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llm/ultr~ ,, E llu tJ 1,p~
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NEWPORT NEWS, VA. TIMES-HERALD D 41.150 SAT. 39,9~ JAN 2 1983 Computer bites man / ., ,, \j' ;J Time's choi~e of personal computers as Machine of the Year has caused quite a stir. Computers have al~dy displaced many workers and will bump millions more in years ahead. But _who would have figured that computers would also beat out humans for Time's coveted annual recognition? Computers are basically stupid they can count only from zero to one and back again. But once programmed by humans, they become dazzlingly efficient instru ments for accomplishing humane ends. Alas, like most other tools, they can be bent to inhumane purposes also and are. But in terms of influence in the year past. Time's choice surely qualifies. Ameri cans are snapping up ~mputers in record number for family fun and as aids to: household management, personal investing and occupational activities. Children seem to have a natural affinity for them, with the result that the U~ted States is producing the first computer-liter ate generation in history -a generation that is learning the ins and outs of comput ers at home and in the classroom. Reflect. ing a change coming to public schools everywhere, all of the kindergartenthrough-eighth-grade children in Alexandria schools are now learning about everyday uses of computers and how to operate them in courses once available only in high schools. By spring, the PTA at Barcroft Elementary School in Arlington will have donated to its school three computers and a series of six-week computer-training sessions for teachers. "We're doing it because the county has not yet gotten itself together the PTA president says. "This is one ,, train our kids can't afford to miss. These developments are part of a socalled Second In49Strial Revolution. The Congressional Qffice of Technolo~ Assessfl!! {0~, m assessing mr rapidly gmgputer scene, recently reported that Americans who do not "adapt through education and training" to the computer age will not "thrive economically and sociaUy in the world that will be shaped, to a large degree, by these technological devel opments." Since most school districts have yet to incorporate computers completely into their curriculums due to the expense, OT A identified ways in which the government might further mass computer literacy. It suggest ed tax incentives to computer companies to donate equipment to schools; subsidies for development of educational software; direct funding of computer acquisition by schools; and taxpayer support for research and devel~pment of education technology. Meanwhile, computer literacy is being advanced in the U.S. marketplace, but scarcely at all in the Soviet bloc. Countless American.youngsters who don't qualify as geniuses are readying themselves in droves for computer-related jobs. A country where computers have become consumer items will almost surely have a formidable lead over countries where they haven't. A consequence could be further widening of the socioeconomic gap between rich and poor nations, and between free and unfree peo ples. Many things would have to happen in the Soviet Union before personal computers could become playthings for the populace. A society that can't meet the demand for housing, refrigerators and autos is not one with a vast market for family computers. Moreover, word processors and printers are a threat to totalitarians who currently forbid private ownership of printing machines. Meanwhile, the U.S. military relies more and more on high-tech hardware t? compensate for inferior numbers. The Sovi et military is pressuring the Kremlin for high-tech weapons also. But America~ f~ture armed forces will be able_ to recruit young men and women already initiated in high-tech mysteries. The Soviet arm~ forces aren't likely to be so fortunate.
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Colorado must prepare for a high-tech I uture r Tm: 21ST CENTURY is f_ast ~p-1 proaching, and our society JS b~m~ i hurtled down an increasingly sophisti-The Denver Post DENVER, COLO. D. 275,490 SUN. 357,187 SAT, 2'54,485, -~i FEB 15 1983 THIS PROPOSAL, backed by all of Col! rado's industrial leaders, provides an ou standing example of an effort to meet iJ cated high-technology path that is already 1 strewn with bodies of the unemployed, many of whom are unprepared to co~pete for jobs in 19~. and all ~f whom will be obsolete in the Job market m 10 years. Only a full-fledged overhaul of the insti tutional relationships between government, private industry and educati?n ba~ed by a fully aware and_determmed pu~lic-: will avert an educational and economic en-. sis that already threatens to undermine our nation's leadership role in the world. C~~arly the rate of progress toward f~ utiliza ti~n of new technologies is aJready Jeopard ized by the lag in the educational system: POINT of VIEW GENEM. NORDBY Gene M. Nordby, Ph.D., an engineer, is chancellor of the dustrys future needs through a much-nee< ed cooperation between busines: government, academia. The technological revolution is upon u: University of Colorado at Denver But before Colorado and the U.S. can begi the gargantuan task of preparing for th kind of future that lies ahead, we mw math teachers are forced into industry be-meet three great challenges: cause pay is significantly better. We must educate the public about th A recent National Science Founda~on report points to a frtghtening and growing gap between industry's technological ad vances today and the preparedness ?f our work force for jobs in those industries. A two-year Office of :;Ql,_olpj Assesffnent study con'Hudes ill ne owfiig 01 information technology. throughout society ts creating demands for educ~ti;on and training in the United States and JS increas ing the potential ec9nomic and 5?Cial alty for not responding to these demands. AN INCREASING percentage of the cur The notion that only "experts" need to huge gap between the technological worl learn technologically aimed science and ing world and the education needed to b math is "tragic for our society as a whole," successful. in that world. We must deve lo the NSF report emphasized. "In general," a strong public consensus on the impo1 it said, "pre-college mathematics, science I lance of technologically oriented educ, and technology instruction has yet to take I tion. We must forge a sophisticated new C( advantage of the advances in technology 1 alition of educators, businessmen, and go, and behavioral sciences of the past 20 ernment decision-makers who can see years." ways to share information and resource,! How can Colorado begin dealing with and to establish common goals that w1 this pending crisis in education and emwork together to bring our work force int ployment? Can citizens of this state catch I readiness for Colorado's tomorrow. on soon enough to the enormous need to upgrade technological educational opportunity? Can Colorado and the U.S. remain a leader in .the Information Age? I believe we can and we must. _-rent employable work_ force is invol~ed dai-WE MUST BEGIN by creating a new coly in information retneval. processing and alition that joins academia, business and transmission. By the 1990s, more than 75 government in a common goal. One seg percent of all jobs will require competency ment like industry today cannot prog in technological skills. Managers at a~ _levress without the support of the educational els will be required lo make decJSions community and the legal decision-making based on technologically retrieved inf ormastructures of the Tegislative and executive lion. The pace of decision-making itself will branches of government. There are many accelerate as arrays of alternatives and opsmall-scale examples of this kind of coali tions become instantly available through tion but urgency of the pending situation computers. . h de~ands that a broadly accepted coalition Employment opporturut1es wi be fostered. rapidly for those who art:n't technol~gic~lly The Higher Education Council of the educated. Employment m Colorado s high, Colorado Association of Commerce and Ini tech industries jumped 116 percent a year dustry has proposed a far-reaching "action during the second half _of the last deca~e, plan for engineering education" which has while total manufactunng employment mas its focus these goals: 1) Promote the creased only 5 percent a~ually.. growth of desirable high technology and reStill, the Ameri~an pub~c contin~es to lalated employers in Colorado through higher bor under a national misconception that education; 2) coordinate and promote the science and technology don't represent the needs of Colorado industry in higher educa "real world" and ther~fore aren't necestion; and 3) achieve a competitive edge for sary ~xec)?t for the ~c1al few. Colorado-trained young people in high-techThis attitude, which must be changed, JS nology industries. preventing the educational system from responding adequately and rapidly enough to meet future employment ~eeds. ~aditio~-:al science and mathematics curncula fail utterly to generate student interest in high-tech skills. Shortsighted budget cuts in edu ,cation, reinforced by the prevailing attitude, keep schools and colleges from buying needed modern equipment. Sc1en~e and
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,. '/ ,_ l I \. ... I t: f I :/_,., Congressional Report Assesses Uses of Technology Study Says 'Information _Revolution' Will Have Major Impact on Education By Ales Beard W ASHINN-TheCongreeaional Office oC Technology Assessment (O.T.A.) last week released the final version or "Informational 'Il!clmology and Its Impact on.American Education." The doeument Is intended to provide Congressional policy makers with a comprehensive over view of the potential usea oCtecbnology in edw:ation. The tedmalogy office released a brief summary of the tull report's find.inp at a meeting 0 two House subcommittees in September. (See Educatwn Week, Sept. 22, 1982J Report Cont.enlll The final 259-page report in cludes: a more detailed dlseusaion oC the United St.ates as an information society, with a look at the future; projections o possible ahift.s in the oompoaition of the workforce cauaed by the "infonnation revolution," and their implicationa for education and training; etfeeta the emerging technologies could have on the "provi sion of education"; the stata of research and development in educa tional technology; coaditiOIIS that may a.tract the NJ'ther application oC technology in education; -at:udieoof establlsbedprograma in aever al settings, including publicbool systems, libraries, and museume; andadiac:uasionofthefllderalrolein the development oC technology for education. The report includes information on cable-television syst.ems, satel lite communication, digital telephone networks for linkages betw~n computer terminals, direct broadcast and low-power broadcast developments, computers, video t.echnology (including videodlskB), and information services that integrate several of these in one system. "Whether or not the m,w informa. tion t.eclmologies fillfill-their educa tional potential will depend, in part," the report atates, "on the kiMII of actiona that the F&cleral Government takes to assure that these technologies are used eft'ec tively and made .-ible to all. Arguments for Federal Action The report lilt.aargumentaforand against federal action. Among the arguments for federal involvement, the report notas: The anticipated "information society" will create new demands for education and training. Computerbased automation in the manufacturing and service eectors will cre ate a need for workers who can be continually retrained as changes occur and new t.echnologies are developed. There will al8o be a l!J'l)Wing demand for aeientilic and technieal o:perta. The report notm that "even in the cunent economy, the information industry ii growinf ata rate of OYff 20 pen:ent per year. It aiao eitea a study by the Bureau oC Labor Statiatic'$ that ea.ya there will be a need for nearly one million new profeasionala lnined in compu-PII0!0SIY,,.,IIQGEL In O;eford, Mass., computer programs are "delivered" to students in a special bus. ter skills durirlg the next decade. Iu.fon:nation tecb.nology could help IIChoola overcome many probleJDS t.bey ace today, but. without an active federal role eome school could be left behind or could cbooR not to ui,e technology for lack of funds, iaformat.ion, motivation, or dindion. The report augpsts that educa tional uae of technologies will not reach its fiill potential without a coordinated effort, pouibly one led by the federal guvermnent. Amongtheargumentaagai:nstestensive federal involvement, the re port stat.Ill, are: that the private aector Is the place for development of educational teclmology; that esten&ive federal involvement is politically unlikely during times oC general budgetary constraint.; and that. too little is known about the long-term e6ect.a of the new technologies on learning .. Other Potential Barriers The report lillts other potential barriers t6 applying the new development.a t.o education, including the shortage o properly trained teach ers, the lack o adequate aotl.wan, andtbea.t. Although the coat of computer hardware and communicatiOIIS aer vicell is dn,pping, the report atates, investment in technology is still a sub&tantial financial commitment forachoola. The O.T.A. discwlaes eeveral Con greaional optiona: Suhsidbe bard.ware. Congresa could increase direct funding t.ci achoois t.o an-them to pu.n:hase hardware. The o.T.;.. c:aae studies show that many oCthe mostaucc:eastul achools now employing computers uaed ederal limdsaa seed money for their programll, Coagreaa could also 1)8111 leglsla tion that. would give computer com panieB tu writeotfil for hardware donated to public ac.boola. One such bill (the "Apple Bill"), was puaed by At one tra.ini.ng center, iMtructional titrut was increased fwefold with new t.echnology. the Howie of Repreaentativea tbis fall and is pending in the Senate. Subsidize aoftware. The report 118.YB that. many BOftware producers are wary of embarking on expensive development projects for the highly uneertai.n education market. In addition, the report noted, there Is much to leam about how best to uae the new t.eclmologiea in education. The government could speed up the proceas, the report suggests, by providing either tull or partial fillld. ing forthedevelopmentoCsome .ma jor C111'riculum. packapll. Such a policy would allow the government t.o set priorities on cunieu lum. peckage8 for which a clear need exlsta, aw:h aa in mathematics and sciew:e. Another method of support would be to provide educational institutions with the funds to purchase their own choice of sot\waze. AHume a leadership role. "Fl!w teechera oradminiatrat.on are 1nined in the instructional uae of computers or other electronic medi.a,. thereportstatBII, and "unsound deciaiona in implementing technol ogy and selecting cumculum packape could be extremely OOBtly to acboola." While a bad initial u;perience with t.ecl:mology could lead teachers t.o become disillusioned, the O.T .A. case lltudiea show that there is a grat deal oC interest and motivation. -rhis mot.i,ation, if properly intormed and guided, could be an important driving force for the im plementation of educational tech nology. Fede?al policy could addresa the well-CUJDented lhortage of quali fied mathematics and acielllle teachers and the drain of personnel cauaed by competition from the pri vate aector. The government could help im prove the supply o qualified teach era by malting conaactual agreements with teachers -who attend govemment-fimded training programs to asaure their return to teaching and by using pay diffel'l!Dtiala to encourage teachers "with more marketable skills" to stay iQ education. The report alao suggests the cre ation o demonstn.tion and develop ment centera and information clearinghouses. Incorporate technology inf. tiatjves in general education .policy. For example, policymakers in the field of vocational education must take into account the new akilla required by high-technology industry, and thoae in special education will need t.o consider the poten tial of information technology to im prove the access of handicapped studenta t.o "the infurmation stream of U. S. society; the report states. The report also says the govemrnent should conaider three general areaa of the potential im~on society of the new technologies: Implicit choices. Theo.T.A. c:onclutlea that information technolOfO ewld be a powerful tool for lowering
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.,; _, -"/ ~.: ../ .... DECEMBER 22, 1982 EDUCATI01 the coat of inatrw:tion and incnuing tbe quality and variety of education, "If Ill); the report states, "those institutions that are able to adapt to ita u.&e moat quickly will have a sig nificant competitive advantage over tboae that aumot." Depending on the oMds of specific institutions Olla! these changes begin, Congress could influence the competitive balance, the report says. mentation of educational technology could create iaauee of equity; says the report. 'The coat of education may increase beyond the eci>nomic means of some." However, technology could also improve acCllllll of some groups (such as the "homebound") to instruction. tions to atTect the development, edu catioual application, and distribution of information technologies. "But aw:h an approach would address only a single aspect of the problem and may generate Ulldesir able and unexpected side effects. If thia is to be avoided, a broad ap proach, which takes into account the changing needs for education and training, considerations of equity, and changing institutional roles, will be required.. "Fbr ezample,. the report states, "if it were determined that the public schools' lack of access to educational technology put their studenta in a aeverely disadvantaged poei tion, Congress could ... focus policy on public schools in order to strengthen them institutionally." Potential equity lmpacta. o.T.A. fiRmd concern among some e:itperta that the widespread inlple. Long-term educational Im pacts." ... a major societal dependence on information technology could have significant educational and paychological effects on the U. S. population, the report states, but very little is known about what these effects might be. So,,Car, little is known about the subtle effects of technology on learning the con.se quences of extensive long-term use of tecimological devices in school or at work. The report was released at a press conference held by the Subc:ommittee on Select Education of the House Education and Labor Committee. Copies of the report are available for $8 from the U. S. Government Printing Office, Superintendent of Documents, Washington, D. C. 20402. The o.P.o. stock number is 052-003-00888-2. The report c:oncludes: "Congress could take a number of specific acCase Studies Suggest Best Ways To Use Technology AapartciiwfbllreporttoCo~on"lnfi>rmational 'nlclmology and Iwlmpacton Ameriam Education, the Oflieeofnlchaology~t(o.T.A.),undertookseven caae lltudies to learn about auccesslhl applications of technology to education. The case studies were intended to include examples fzom across the country in rural, suburban, and urban school settingB. 'The most important" observation fzom the case studies, o.T.A'areportsays, "is that information technologies can be most effectively applied to educational tasks when they are well Integrated in their institutional environments." 'Eztenarve Development and IDvolvemenf Dorothy Linda Gsn:ia, an o.T.A. atalf member who worked ut.emively on the report, said the case studies ab.owed that "where you aetually have extenstve devel opment and invvmmient at the local level, thia t.enda to overcome many of the institutional barriers" identified in the cue studies. Tbe 0. T.A. perfiJrmed case studies of: The Comput.era in .Education program of the Lexington.; Maas., publichool ByBt.em. Lemigton, an affluent,middle-claM, IDClltlywbit.eauburba.narea near Boston, is located in the heart of the state's high-tecimology area. Many of the district's parenta are employed by nearby technology industries, and 90 percent ofl.exing. t.on parenta send their children to the public schools. Computer-Using Educatora(cl/E) and Computer Literacy Programs in Novato and Cupertmo, Calif. o.T.A. c'-to study Califomia'a Silicon Valley region becau.&e, as "the center of the nation's semiconductor in duatry, the area provides a "critical mass" of educators, acboola, studenta, and parenta involved with technology. cus is a group orpnu.ed by and for K-12 teachera inteneted in computenl in education. Started by 12 teadlera in 1978, the OTpnization tepOrted 3,500 memben in 48 8tatell and 13 foreign countries at the time of thecaaestudy. The Novata Unitied School District is one of the "more rural and leu affluent" districts in Marin County. Apple Computera Inc. is located within the limita of the Cupertino Union School District, in California's Silicon Valley. '"!.'be boys that designed the Apple grew up here," says a Cupertino educator in the report. 'leclmology, Education and Training program of the (b;ford, Maas., public schools. This program was select ed as an example of how a small, rural school district with limited resources can offer up-t.o-date technologi cal education and training through partnerships with private industry and other school districts, the report states. The Computer Literacy Program in the Lyons Township Secondary School District, La Grange, lll. o.T.A. se lected this program, located in the lll)Uthwestem suburbs of Chicago, becau.&e it is a system-wide application of computing that involves the district's entire student population and most of the district's professioual staff in all curricuJar areas. Minnesota Schools and the Minnesota Educational ComputingConsortiwn !M.E.c.c.l. This case study deals with a 5tt.ate aJ:?enC"v that provides a centralizE,.d ~ygt.em, Seven districts were examined in detail. The state has a computer hardware inventory of approximately $44 million, sccording to 1981 figures, and Mi.nnesots classrooms are expected to have 10,000 in structional computing stations by 1984. Minneaota of. fens "the world's largest general-purpoee, educatioual, time-8haring system," O. T .A. reports. M.LC.c. was established in 1973 to provide computer services to students, teachers. and administrators. The program otfen accesa to large computers through a tele communications network. with state subsidies of the communications coat to provide equal access to all systems. lnatructional Computing in the Houston Indepen dent School District. Houston was selected for study becauae it is "a recognized leader in urban education," and because it provides an eumple of"diatrictwide leader ship and coordinatipn through s newly created depart ment of blchnology and the nation's first 8S80ciate SU perintendent for technology." Information Technology and Education in the Stste of Alaska. Alaska is signilicant, the report says, because it is providing extensive applications of computer and communications technology in education, including the inatrw:tional and audi0<0nferencing system known as LEAJtNIALASKA. Work on LEAJtN/AJ.ASXA began in 1980, and by Decem ber 1981, according to the report, 85Alaak.ancommunities were receiving instructional-television programming via satellite dish antennas. The statewide instructional-television channel broadcasts nearly 18 hours of programming every day for audiences ranging from preschool to adult, the report says. <1.T .,. all'O completed c:a.se studi.,,.of educational t>Ch, ,, .... ,' ...,,,,
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omputer ove In By the millions, it is beeping its way into offices, schools and homes ILL SOMEONE PLEASE TELL ME, the bright red advertisement asks in mock irritation, WHAT A PERSONAL COMPUTER CAN DO? The ad provides not merely an answer. but IOOofthem. A personal comput er, it says, can send letters at the speed of light. diagnose a sick poodle, custom-tailor an insurance program in minutes. test rec.ipes for beer. Testimonials abou,nd. Mi, chaerLamb of Tucson figured out how a personal computer could monitor anesthe sia during surgery; the rock group Earth, Wind and Fire uses one to explode smoke bombs onstage during concerts: the Rev. Ron Jaenisch of Sunnyvale, Calif., programmed his mac.hine so it can recite an entire wedding ceremony. In the cavernous Las Vegas Convention Center a month ago. more than 1,000 computer companies large and small were showing off their wares, their floppy discs and disc drives, joy sticks and modems, to a mob of some 50,000 buyers, middlemen and assorted technology buffs. Look! Here is Hewlett-Packard's HP9000. on which you can sketch a new airplane, say. and immediately see the results in 3-D through holograph imaging; here is bow the Votan can answer and act on a telepnone call in 1 the wjddleofthenight from a salesman on the other side of the COWltry; here is the Olivetti M20 that entertains bystanders by drawing garishly colored pictures of Mari lyn Monroe: here is a program designed by The Alien Group that enables an Atari computer to say aloud anything typed on its keyboard in any language. It also sings, in a buzzing humanoid voice, Amazing Grace and When I'm 64 or anything else that anyone wants to teach it. future. home computers will be as commonplace as television sets or dishwash ers. Although they see dangers of un.employmen t and dehumanization. solid majorities feel that the computer revolu tion will ultimately raise produttion and I have-nots. But the prophets of high tech nology believe th" computer is so cheap and so powerful that it could enable underdeveloped nations to bypass the whole in dustrial revolution. While robot factories i could fill the need for manufactured goods. the microprocessor would create myriad new industries. and an international computer network couid bring important agritherefore living standards (67%), and that it will improve the quality of their children's education (68%). The sales figures are awesome and will become more so. ln 1980 some two dozen firms sold 724.000 personal computers for $1.8 billion. The following year 20 more companies joined the stampede, including giant IBM, and sales doubled to 1.4 million 1 cultural and medical information to even the most remote villages. 'What networks unitsatjust ur., __ .,..., '-'"'nn. ...... ,. i of railroads. highways and canals were in another age. networks of telecommunications, information and computerization ... are today." says Austrian Chancellor ,.. n French Editor Jeannal figures ar Dataquesti a more than IC have sold 2.8 1 To be sur "mainframe" an increasing cally everyon century. It pre checks. scrutii tercontinentaJ numerable ot ments and C( has made pc space. It has fought. as the J South Atlantic sophisticated l Despite frame bly, bl specia Now, thanks t con chip. the < so dramaticalJ it is accessi bl~ cade of com:i: their way int< American sch The "informal From Page 22 ,,., Theoretically. all unemployed workers can be retrained. but retraining pro, grams are not high on the nationsagenda. Many new jobs. moreover. will require an aptitude in using computers. and the retraining needed to use them will have to be repeated as the technology keeps improv-inll~ sbilli1f~~~-sis2..Il!U.:'~!l~~?~ents: ''Ufeiongrerrammiisexp&Teato15l!c'8ffli! the norm for many people ... There is already considerable evidence that the schoolchildren now being educated in the use of computers are generally the children of the white middle class. Young blacks. whose unemployment rate stands today at 50%. will find another barrier in I front of them. Such social problems are not the fault of the computer. of co~~but a conse.. ( eibcr. who believes teaching capability rd World's illiteracy l of high birth rates: ~w life that has been LS filled with notable >be. It was a year in pried loose Leonid :rip on the Soviet ropov. the cold-eyed iOk command. It was el's truculent Prime Begin completely re ,fthe Middle East by 1g Lebanon and lian guerrilla forces ampaign was a sue looked with dismav :h bombs on Beirut:s ssacres in the Pales ;. It was a year in :d lhe decline of Eung the Falkland ls ain. led by doughty 1eet the test by tak-As both the Apple Computer adver tisement and the Las Vegas circus indi cate. the enduring American love affairs with the automobile and the teievision set are now being transformed into a giddy passion for the personal computer. This passion is partly fad, partly a sense of how life could be made better. partly a gigantic sales campaign. Above all. it is the end re sult of a technological revolution that has been in the making for four decades and is now. quite inerally. hitting home. ists have long~ ing with it year's major news ,e threat of internaas Ronald Reagan ~line in the L'.S. in .. s. l 982 brought the ;ince the Gr~t DeAmericans are receptive to the revolu tion and optimistic about its impact. A new poW for TIME by Yankelovich. Skellv and White indicates that nearly 80% of Americans expect that in the fairly near The telephone survev of 1.019 recistcred vo:e:; wa, C,.mdUCtL-d 00 Dec. 8 and 9. The ma! g,n oi sampi,ng crrnr1s pllJSor minus 3,;;, Changes in the nu] JA-VpH;; JlVC '111',I WV11\, perhaps even in the way they think. America will never be the same In a larger perspective. the entire world will never be the same. The industri alized nations of the West are already scrambling to computerize ( 1982 saJes: 435.000 in Japan. 392.000 in Western Eu rope L The effect of the machines on the Third World is more uncertain. Some ex perts argue that computers will. if anv thing. widen the gap between haves and p1c:,,:,1u111 u. muuonJoolessl as well as bud get deficits that may reach an unprece dented $180 billion in fiscal 1983. High I unemployment plagued Western Europe as well. and the multibiilion-
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J r'1l The Computer "Man'' of the Year? .... ~~"' l L,:;h:I '.,_;, :::i;;/,,,.' Time magazine expects an av-Trying nevertheless, th~"coft~War alanche of protest for picking the per omce of Technolofl. Assessment corn sonal computer as it's 1982 "Man of the ments:'usasthepnnGngpress,6y Year." As well it might. stimulating literacy and speeding the Besides dismissing the award's title. now of ideas, supported the Renais the choice seems to be an affront, if sance and the transition from a medi unintentional, to the millions of jobless eval society to the age of enlighten Americans whose plight better characment. so the new information systems terizes the year's fundamental con. could profoundly transform the sociaJ cem and political environment of the U.S. Not helping his cause, an editor said and world society!' picking "a nonperson who simply rep-Yet the OTA felt compelled to sound resents a situati<:>n or condition" would an alarm about the potential for evil as not have been satisfactory. The magwell as good in the new technology azine thought otherwise in designating which weds the computer to informa: G.L Joe in 1950, the young in 1966 and tion systems. If the system expands a group of women in 1975, among oth-our information base, as in libraries' ers. Journalistic competitors cited expanding networks, it also facilitates Time's traditional optimistic mindset the invasion of privacy and the kind of during Republican administrations, governmental surveillance that George while sugggesting that .. down" stories Orwell worried about in his book. like unemployment don't "hype" edi"1984." tion sales. It's essential to remember that such If unhuman, the personal computer troublesome duality is not new. We've unquestionably reshaped this year's faced it since the discovery that fire course of events. In numbers alone, 2.8 both cooks food and sears human flesh, tnitlion were sold, up fourfold over two and a hammer drives nails or breaks years ago. Most Americans stand con. heads. vinced the devices will join the car, Taming the computer's vast energies televison and dishwasher as common must be addressed since it's too late to family tnecessities." "uninvent" it. Equal to the exciting Theyre already familar outside the challenge of finding new uses for it is home. Schools require their study, and the need of government to devise pro some college students must buy them. tection for citizens from the abuses to Offices and industry run only when their freedoms and interests. they do. Politicians' eyes light up at the The task demands an awareness possibility of luring "high tech" indusamong the people and the Congress tries. that their vision, imaginations and paSo great is the potential, the computtience will be taxed. A contribution. er's ultimate impact defies prophesy. though backward, Time has made. .-~
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TACOMA NEWS TRIBUNE TACOMA, WASH. 0. 106,100 S.111,145~ DEC 28 1982 I' an of Year' a good choice ( (EonpmAL] -T .. he choice of the computer as Time magazine's :~ "Man of the Year" probably will raise a few eyebrows. "Computers aren't people yet," critics might say. "Don't rush them." On reflection, though, it isn't a bad choice. The technology of computers is doing more to change the world than any person or group. It is changing how we work. It is changing how we play. It is changing how we learn, how we communicate. Observers say the computer revolution is akin to the industrial revolution in the new way of life it will bring. The C n ressional Of Assessmenti in a recen y issue report, pre 1cts, e 1m-pa~t of this revolution affects individuals, institutions and governments, altering what they do, how they do it and how they relate to one another." It also is changing what we need to know, accord. ing to the report: "If individuals are to thrive eco nomically and socially in a world that will be shaped, to a large degree, by these technological develop ments, they must adapt through education and train ing." This points up the irony of the computer revolution. On the one hand, computers off er new ways to make us more productive, and can give us more leisure. On the other, though, they pose a real threat to many classes of workers. The jobs of some will be taken over by the machines. Others will find it necessary to master computer technology in order to keep their means of livelihood. The philosophical challenge here is to accept the computer for what it is: an extension of man's hu manity -or inhumanity, if he chooses to make it that. Computers don't think. They merely calculate and process data which humans give them. They are a tool with seemingly unlimited uses. The computer can be an artist's brush -or a bludgeon. The choice in how computers are used, in the end, falls ultimately I to their users. i Will we rise to that challenge? _..)
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COMMUNICATIONS DAILY WASHINGTON, D.C. DAILY DEC 17 1982 L f.... fects of information technol : Q,u,= a, J;m;;.&m91oi~Se'*5men.t Wed. released study e-ta.Y I ing "impact of information technology on American eli~ron."t"ifi'ong conclusions: Whether new technologies fulfill potential depends in part on actions by federal govt. OTA pointed out that many institutions traditionally responsible for education services may be unable er unwilling to adapt to new educational needs arising from explosive developments in computer & communications technologies. In addition,. many barriers to use of new technology exist, including high initial cost, lack of quality programming and dearth of local personnel with adequate training. Study urges federal action to assure benefits of educational technologies are accessible to public institutions. It also calls for more research into long-term effects on learning when educational technologies are substituted for more traditional teaching methods. Other recommendations: Provide taxincentives for donations of computers to schools, fund teacher training programs, support or encourage production of high quality, economical eu!'riculum software.
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The Future of Conventional Nuclear Power
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The Oak Ridger, March 14, 1981, P 3 'New r8alities' hurt breeder's chanCes, .. Gibson tells Rotary By CATHERINE FOSTER The Clinch River Breeder Reactor Plant project is in big i trouble in Congress. which no 1 longer sees the need (or it. and private industry will not be like ly to pick it up. predicts Jack Ciibbons. director o[ the congres siopal Office of Technology Assessment. When the breeder was begun. everi in times as recent as 1972. there was a strong consensus that the nation was 011 an upward ..J bound. rapidly rising demand for electricity. at perhaps seven or eight percent peqear." Gib bons told a meeting of the Oak ; Ridge Rotary Club at the Holi. day lnn Thursday. "Supplies of natural uranium were quite limited. and a shor,: tage was seen. That's turned out \ not to be true at all. We a!so1 thought that electricity and energy in general was in lockstep with economic growth That turns out to be wrong too. 'l Some new realities have begun 1 to emerge. and the current breeder problem is reflective of that." Gibbons said "The reality is that we are now in a time of vastly lower demand growth [or electricity in the one to two percent per annum rate. Other supplies of uranium have been found. and there are ways to make con\'entional nuclear power more emcient The time that the breeder is needed has receeded into the distant future a future so distant. that it is comfortable to think about decades before you might need that kind of technology, The costs of the breeder also make the thing move into the l ruturc because earlier hopes that this might lead to a lower cost energy technology essen lially disappeared He added. "ltnder a time of tightening resources .for new technology development. it i shouldn't he a surprise that the breeder and the future of CRBR Is really in doubt It's also. it seems to be. a source of explana lion. why the utilities and the Gibbons talks to the Rotary Club Thursday. private comP.anies are also noL going to he interested in it anytime soon Gibbons. long time head of en vironmental programs at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and former physics professor at the (lniversily of Tennessee. now directs the congressional office which studies new technologies lo provide information to members of Congress The Office of Technology Assessment is an agency pro viding information to Congress. Gibbons explained. along with the Congressional Budget Office j and the Congressional Research Service. Science and technology have become an important influence in_ the federal government in re cent years. Gibbons said. poin t~ng out that it has only been since World War II that science has a major factor in govern ment. The first science adviser ti, a president served under President Eisenhower. he add' ed. The Office of Technology Assessment is now ten years old. he said. and has Ileen tackling a number of important questions [or Congress The trick to doing it well. he said. is in deciding early what will be important over the next couple of years For example. he said. OTA on Monday will be issuing a report that has been under study for the past two years. on non nuclear hazardous waste. which includes chemical waste. "The timing couldn't have been more perfect. considering the news now." he said OTA has also recently issued a study on the eHects of nuclear war that showed the Department o[ Defense projections were very underestimated. causing the Defense Department to reevaluate _its. 'projections. he. said. Other studies in'volve about 30 major projects each year cover ing "a wide swath of work;'' Gib bons said, ranging from classified work on strategic command controls and com munications to emerging biotechnology techniques. "We have lo pick carefully ( which questions we pursue I so tltat it represents riot a literature review but a definite advance in the state of knowledge in a given technology issue" While the studies may not resolve conflict. they do provide ; information to help define the conflicts. he said, and it's not unusual for members of Congress on both sides of an issue to quote from OTA report to defend their positions "'I'm used to be ing quoted out of context," Gib bons grinned. "What we hope is that both sides will quote from ; our work."
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-----------------News and c.;omment Ultrasaf e Reactors, Anyone? Science (Jan. 21, 1983) If the U.S. nuclear industry is to climb out of its doldrums and begin building reactors again. it may have to move to a new generation of safer, more efficient plants. according to several analysts. Concepts for ultrasafe reactors are now being studied by government and in_de pendent groups. But American reactor manufacturers are not enthusiastic. They regard the fail-safe designs as exotic and too expensive to be of practical value. The chief apostle for rethinking plant design -is Alvin Weinberg, director of the Institute for Energy Analysis at Oak Ridge, Tennessee. He argues that ultra safe reactors could be the basis of a "second nuclear era" in the 1990's and beyond. Weinberg, a controversial insider of the nuclear brotherhood. leads a review group looking into the possibilities for improving U.S. reactors, with support from the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation of Pittsburgh. The second nuclear era, as he sees it. might arrive 10 years from now. if the demand for nuclear electric ity reappears. Not one new plant has been ordered in the United States since 1978. During the present hiatus. Weinberg says. it would be smart to come up with designs that are virtually free of risk. If some certifi ably safe models are developed and of fered to utilities as standardized designs. public agencies might allow them to be licensed and built more rapidly. It now takes about 12 years to license and build a plant in the United States. as opposed to about 6 years in Japan. according to the Atomic Industrial Forum. Wein berg's goal is to remove some of. the institutional barriers by offering risk-free designs. Several problems have flattened the domestic nuclear industry in the 1980's. The most important is economic. De mand for electricity has grown very slowly in the last 5 years. and. in fact. it declined in 1982. leaving utilities with excess electric capacity. Many compa nies that might have buiit new plants have turned away from nuclear power because of its high initial cost. Nuclear plants outdo their competitors on fuel efficiency. a factor that comes into play late in a plant's life. This fuel advantage The U.S. industry shrugs off proposals for creating a "second nuclear era" based on fail-safe designs has tieen wiped out recently by the re lentlessly inflationary demands of plant construction. by new licensing require ments. and by high interest rates. Thus, Weinberg's research is an effort to find a straightforv.ard technical fix for a com plex tangle of economic and risk-reduc tion problems. Like Weinberg's group at Oak Ridge. the Office of T echnolo Assessment ~rr"eongress,ona y sponsore outfit, also has begun looking into ways to improve reactors. The OT A is making a _broad review of the industry's chances for adaptation and survival as part of a project requested by nuclear power ad vocates Senator James McClure (R--Ida ho) and Representative Marilyn Bou quard (i)-Tenn.). Safety at a price General Atomic's HiRh Temperature Gt1s Cooled Reactors muy he .tc{fer than li~ht watu ret1c1ors. but thcy m<1y cost more and ht1w nor hee11 1,.vrt'd m1 larl{I! scalt'. The nuclear industry is involved in both OTA and Weinberg's projects. and. of course. it conducts research on its own. But industry engineers speak dis paragingly of outside work as "paper studies" oflittle practical value. Spokes men at both Westinghouse and GenerJI Electric seem to regard Weinberg's effort as an academic project. A Westing house official said that designs that have not been reduced to practice. like some in Weinbergs review. must be regarded as riskier than those that have been ,,tested by years of use. The industry's recommendation for improving reactor safety is simple: follow Japan's example and build new pl.lnts using the best avail able designs (see box). The harshest comment came from a federal research manager with 20 years' experience in analyzing fission reactor designs. He asked to speak off the rec ord. Few would voice the opinion he gave, he said. but many in the nuclear field share it. In his opinion. Weinberg's project is "very. very dangerous" be cause it will lead the public to ask "Why do we need to start all over with X billion dollars worth of research unless you guys think something is wrong with the reactors we have?"' There is nothing wrong with existing reactors, he insisted. and he described the second nuclear era studies as "a welfare program for other wise unemployed nuclear engineers." He said that the Clinch River breeder project is the same kind of thing. Only half-joking._ he said the second nuclear era scheme may be an insurance policy for the beneficiaries of the Clinch River program. a means of staying employed if Clinch River is killed. Weinberg is aware that his work is controversial. Even the suggestion that the hiatus in new plant orders may last a decade is anathema. At a recent news conference. Weinberg describee himself as the "in-house antinuke: a disingen uous remark. for he was appearing that day to promote the breeder reactor. But his words reflected the tension that ex ists betw~en the commercial sector and outside reformers. even when the outsid ers are nuclear boosters like Weinberg. The industry is very uncomfortable with
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the unstated premise of the second nu clear era studies: that present reactors may not be safe enough. Weinberg and his colleagues began their study by looking at the accident risk estimates for present-day reactors to see how they tanked. According to a paper by one of Wein~erg's co-workers, A. P. Fraas, they discovered a great variation in the estimated risk that a plant might have a.severe core-damaging accident. Some plants appeared to be 100 times more likely than others to have such an accident. It is possible to lower the risks by adding new safety-compo nents. But this is costly, Fraas says, and sometimes makes the system more difficult to maQage. The most ambitious im provements of this kind mentioned by Fraas would only reduce risks by a factor of 20 to 50. With tinkering of this sort,
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something like a missile silo. Because the entire machine sits in a pool of borat ed water, the cooling system cannot fail. If the primary system breaks down, the fuel core is flooded with the surrounding borated water without human or mechanical intervention. According to Weinberg, the reactor is supposed to be able to cootitselfby natural heat convec tion for at least a week without any mechanical help. "That's long enough to get a fire hose in, if you need it," he says. One last point in PIUS' favor: unlike other reactors, it appears to be invulnerable to sabotage. Alvin Weinberg Ultrasafe reactors could be the basis of a "second nuclear era." PIUS has some obvious problems. Nothing like it has been built, and so it is not clear whether it will work. Its cost is not known but is likely to be higher than that of conventional reactors. Because its concrete shell is buried in the grou_nd, a Westinghouse engineer says, PIUS may be more vulnerable to seismic shock. It may be difficult to develop waterpr-oof control systems. Mainte nance may be awkward. Despite these weaknesses, PIUS may have its value, particularly if its inherent safety makes it easier to license. The fundamental flaw in all of these designs is that they seem to cost at least 20 percent more to build than existing types. Thus, even allowing for improve ments in fuel efficiency, these new con cepts are in many ways less attractive economically. This means that the era of ultrasafe nuclear plants may not come to pass unless an important precondition is met: the economy will have to be far healthier than it is today, and demand for electric power will have to be growing strongly .-ELIOT MARSHALL
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,Ai.-hml:5A~ .. Q>azdtc. LITTLE ROCK. ARK. D. 128.400 S. 154.790 S.1\1. ~;:z 17 OEC 16 19r -[EDtroRtAL] A House Vote on the Breeder ./ (o:l.O, 7 '{ ... Since the birth of the Clinch River Breeder and nuclear nonproliferation but the principal Reactor project in the Nixon administration, the question: before Congress, and the basis of the House.of Representatives, until Tuesday, had ap House vote, is cost. The only money for Clinch proved every funding bill --:_ 15 in all preRiver that sqrvived the vote on Tuesday is $44 sented. to it._ The 16th'~' for construction million that would be needed to start -8hutting funding, fell on a 217-to-196 _vote, and while the down the project. issue is not settled, the vote is a strong indication A harder struggle to delete breeder funds is that Congress finally is recognizing what a. boonexpected lri the Senate, where Clinch River bas clogle the Clinch River plant~ / as its patr~.Majority Leader Howard ~ker. ; Altbough the original cost estimate was $700 The Tennessee senator, with. the. backing of a million, the Energy Departme~t alreadf has new big lah9r-big business coalition, says. be bas spent $LS billion on the preliminary work; and enough votes to block any' attempt to cut off clearing of the site began only three months ago. funds. But it will be recalled that in September The General Accounting Office earlier this year Baker's forces were able to turn back a move to estimated the final cost of $8.8 billion. An~ the delete breeder construction funds by a margin of ~ional Off~ Isfh,of Assessment only one vote. ow4iures that Fers wf n oe ec886hll-Whatever the outcome of the funding in this cally feasible until the mid-21st Century. The lame du4 session, the issue of the Clinch River United States faces a federal budget deficit of Breeder Reactor likely will remain alive for perhaps Si80 billion. In short, on economic some final .dispensationm the next Congress. The groun~ al~ the Clinch River project cannot be House vote, if nothing e~se, has demonstrated justified, and now would be an opportune time that Clinch River is now vulnerable to common for Congress to say "no." sense consideration and it can be a powerful in-The Clinch River Breeder Reactor should be centive for Congress, finally, to say that enough disqualified on other grounds environmental is enough. .. -:-
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_, Impacts of Atmospheric Alterations: Interim Report The Regional Implications of Transported Air Pollutants: An Assessment of Acidic Deposition and Ozone
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MORGANTOWN, W. VA. DOMINION POST D, 19,700 S, 22,480~, DEC 19 1982 Alan Crawford .,v t/ ___ u;;q., It's a dirty h usin ess WASHINGTON f -For three one, since we've lived with its University of Colorado estimates days in early December, the hazards year after year and no that wastes coming out of those House debated legislation to es-one thinks a thing about it. plants weigh twice as much as tablish storage facilities for nu-There's even some evidence the coal going in, and that if the clear waste, with environmentalthat the pollutants that issue coal-fired plants were subjected ists stressing its potential from the everyday coal-burning. to the same regulations of the hazards. plant are at least as dangerous Nuclear Regulatory Commis~ More traditional liberals, like as nuclear wastes, though sion, God forbid, "most would the bill's sponsor, Mo Udall of there's no call -and shouldn't have to be shut down for exceed-Arizona, argued for the need to be -to shut down the industry. ing radioactive limits." pass some kind of law to address The issue, of course, isn't A report by ~he congressional the nuclear waste issue, while whether there are health hazQ~ n, ~Il!llQ~ss~t. pro-nuke Republicans also ralards in nuclear power -there 9to) iwyttfFoqflihed lied in defense of the Udall bill, are health hazards in any energy that the number of premature which the industryitself favors. producing activity but how deaths d~e to air pollution attrib-The House bill passed by voice those health hazards stack up utable. to coal combustion would vote, but it isn't likely that it can against those of exls~ing alternareach almost 50,000 by 1985. be squared with a Senate version tives, alternatives 'Ye should be These are not alarming statis-before the lame duck session is encouraging, not trymg to limit. tics, unless they are viewed in over. This issue has been around isolation -and without taking for some time and will continue "Our principal alternative to ;into account what life would be to be debated for some time to nuclear electricity is burning like without the processes which come. Indeed, had this much coal, and the wastes from coal involve these risks. attention been given to the pollu-burning, better known as 'air tants emitted by most coal-burn-pollution,' are estimated to be The _really un~cc~ptable risk 1s ing power plants. we'd all still be causing about 10,000 fatalities to s~bJect Amer1c8: s energy prosquatting around our own little per year in the United States," ducllon to such ~trict regulations Boy Scout campfires making says Bernard L. ~ohen, a profes-that we starve m the dark. The little Alley Oop. and hightailing it sor of physics at the University fatalities from that prospect back into the cave when the of Pittsburgh since 1958. "There would be really awesome. wooly mammoth herd lumbers is no evidence to suggest that the West Virginians know very by. general public considers this to well that energy production enThis may be an appealing be an unacceptable risk." tails risks and involves hazards vision to some of the flakier When coal is burned, a ton of and should keep those facts i~ ~raduate students in a few_ of our sulfur compounds is discharged, mind as they view the nuclear hbera~ arts colleges, but 1t isn't Dr. Cohen has written, with the power question, too. Of course, likely to warm the cockles of annual effect of 25 fatalities, it's a dirty business. But somemost of _u~ who sort of like our 60,000 cases of respiratory dis-body's got to do it. TVS, Cu1smarts other essen-ease and $25 million in property Mr. Crawford is a former edi-tlals of modern hvmg. damage. tor of the Dominion Post and The coal comparison is a good Dr. Peter Beckman of the now resides in Washington, D.C. /'i
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MONROE, WIS. llMES D,8,258 DEC 21 1932 Drawbacks ~iurround plentiful energy resources rhe United States has me enormous energy sources. But all raise conrns economic, enronmental, or health at limit their use. A prime ample is coal. President Jimmy Carter mted coal to fuel his ooral equivalent of war" energy problems. In 1977, called for coal production rise from just under 700 illion tons a year at .tbat ne to a billion by 1985. While coal was taking over r some imported energy at me, other nations would e its advantages too and y a lot of ours. That would :set some of the U.S. :mey spent on oil. M the end of 1982, those als don't seem to be within l! nation's grasp. Coal pro-duction is about l\50 millions Until almost the middle of could be recovered with curper year, h,1lfw11y to this century, coal was king. rent technology and near Carter's goal, but it hasn't I t f u e l e d r a i 1 r o a d current prices. risen much in \'1e last three locomotives, industry, and At today's use rate, the years. the family furnace. In the proved reserves would last U.S. coal exports are early 1920s, coal accounted for more than 200 years. about twice what they were for more than 60 percent of But coal's problems are in 1977, amounting to about all fuels used nationally. sizable also. More than 12,00 an eighth of production. But That dropped to 18 percent coal miners have died in acthey've not grown much in in 1977 before a modest rise cidents this century; .100 to the last couple of years to the present 22 percent. 200 still do each year. Strip either. The New York Times About 73 percent of U.S. mining tears up the landreports a consensus among coal production nows goes to scape; how much can or will people following the market electric power plants, where be put back together isn't that "American coal sales it is turned in to just over clear. A solid fuel, coal abroad are expected to half thenation'selectricity. presents transport and use decline in the near term." Coal's great attraction is problems that liquids and Not that coal is insignifi-its abundance in this coun-gases don't. It's not usable in cant in the U.S. energy pie-try. The U.S. has about 1.2 internal combustion ture. It's the third most-used tr i 11 ion tons of coal engines. It leaves con source of energy in this resources, 20 percent of the siderable ash. country, with about 22 per-world's known total. About And then there's air pollucent of total supply. (oil 200 billion tons of this are tion. Coal's sulfur content is ranks first and natural gas classed as proved reserves, a major difficulty. That elesecond.) meaning it appears they ment combines with oxygen from the air to form sulfur dioxide and other sulfur compounds. Those and other materials, including r.'itrogen oxides, particulates, and carbon dioxide, create problems which haven't been defined clearly. It's relatively easy to find how much of these come out of a smokestack. Figuring out where they go and what th,ey do there is much tougher. Coal-fired power plant e.missions may contribute substantially to acid rain that harms lakes and vegetation in northern Wisconsin as well as Canada and the northestern U.S. Or those emissions may deserve less blame than they've received. It may be that, each year, sulfur dioxide emissions in the U.S. and Canada cause more than 50,000 people to} die sooner than they otherwise would. A recent report by the U.S. Office of 'tt,c~~o_sr ~.:itmeJll sug gesfectfFal1gure, w1lif e em' phasizing it is by no means firmly established. As the true problems and their causes become known, it's possible that tighter pollution controls will be re quired. More smokestack : scrubbers could be required. Other approaches, like turn ing coal into gas, may have advantages., Tougher controls would make burning coal more expensive. Battles will be fought in balancing dollar costs against other costs. Such decisions, and not the resource itself, will determine how much America relies on coal. Thomas J. Murray is direc- tor of the Energy Infonnation Project in the Energy Research Center, UW-. Madison College of Engineering.
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Alternatives for a National Computerized Criminal History System
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SECURITY WORLD CHICAGO, ILL MONTHLY 3~,6JO FEB 1983 :---IN WASHINGTON Critical policy definitions on computer security and applications stalled in Congress. By David R. Heinly, Washington Bureau Chief ssment a t 1n tan set"Up ana the policy implications of state-of-the-art tech nology, issued a lengthy report on the lack of security measures for comput er--based information systems. The report underscored the ease with which computers and computer infor mation network systems can be used to commit crime. More recently, the QTA released another study, analyzing computers as crime-fighting tools; specifically in establishing a nationwide "Compu terized Criminal History" system. Such a system, the OTA suggests, could offer important benefits. for the criminal justice system and a broad range of non-criminal or non prosecutorial functions such as emplo1yment, licensing and security checks. In a sense, both studies represent two sides of the same coin: abuse of computer information systems. The first study discusses prevention of un authorized use, tampering and sabo tage. The second, known as the CCH sys1cem study, warns of the potential for abuse of a system set up to meet altruistic goals. Both emphasize the essential bot tom line: the need for a policy defini tion on the use and misuse of computer information systems. Lawmakers' reluctance to get seri ous is, in a way_, understandable. The legal, moral, constitutional and ethi cal questions are mind-boggling. "The OTA's report (on the pro posed CCH)," said Senate Criminal Law Subcommittee Chairman Charles Mathias, R-Md., "under scores the policy dilemmas that lie ahead. Verifiable and accessible crim inal history information will improve the efficiency of our criminal justice system ... But (the CCH system) must be safeguarded against improper access and dissemination. "In the years ahead," Mathias said, "Congress will have to make policy choices that balance these con cerns." In December 1982, a Senate over sight subcommittee convened several days of hearings on the practice of computer "matching" by government agencies to detect fraud, waste and mismanagement in government wel fare programs. For example, officials from state and federal agencies de scribed the practice of matching com puterized information on recipients of Social Security benefits to the size of their respective bank accounts. But the hearings also orought out the legal and moral questions in volved in this kind of investigation; questions involving constitutional guarantees of privacy and the pre sumption of innocence. The Need for Oversight Subcommittee Chairman Sen. Wil liam Cohen, R-Me., pointed out that laws, controls and oversight of com puter matching are lacking. Cohen also questioned how far the right of privacy can or ought to be abridged, even in the necessary campaign to prevent fraud and abuse. It's up to Congress to find the answer before a meaningful policy on computer information system security can be defined. As the OTA points out, the hardware exists. The bottle neck is the absence of directives on how to use that equipment. A computer system could be com pared to a handgun in that it can help commit a crime or prevent it. It has emerged as a tool for both the lawbreaker and the law enforcer. As Con gress attempts to define its proper use and minimize potential abuse, one can only hope they have better luck with the computer than they've h~d with handgun controls, D
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Parade Magazine Sunday, Feb. 27,. 1983 be FBI is this country's most famous-and mostfeared law enforce ment agency. But what has and hasn't -it done for us lately? Successes: The FBI has anested and won convictions against 277 Mafia mobsters Ibis year alone. Since 1980. about 20 PhiJadclphia lieutenants and hit-men have been eliminaf.ed. In Cleveland. the FBI has taken on the entire leadership family from top to bottom. The boss of Kansas City has been indicted. The Los Angeles mob is vinually leaderless after a series of convictions. As a result of the biggest FBI inves tigation since the John F. Kennedy assassination. three persons have been convicted in a San Antonio. Tex trial for the 1979 shooting of Judge John Wood. the first_murderof a fed-II eral judge in this century. In an operation called Bancoshares, I the FBI formed a fictitious corpora tion in Aorida with undercover agents posing as brokers willing to launder some of the vast sums of money accumulated by narcotics traffickers. Trans actions, which grew to more than : St million a day. were videotaped. A total of $178 million was Jau~. The FBI seized seven airplanes. 20 vehicles. cocaine valued at $900.000. I a 4600--acre ranch, three residences -~. I and $17 million in cash. More than 60 individuals have bec:nindicb:d. 45 have I been arrested, o have been convicted, and 22 remain fugitives. Failula: A Senate select committee was put togeeberto study FBI undercover tech niques after four Congressmen and a Senator were filmed accepting bribes from .. sheiks" in the FBI's Abscam opntion. No judge or jury found a case for FBI entrapmentintbeAbscanl trials. but in studying FBI files OD Abscam and other undm:ovcr operations, the committee found unclear and inoomplete communications be tween die street agents. their criminal informmusandFBlheadquarters. Outof-con1rol con attists. while OD the -~...,,st ba.Jf of a sa,rople of records sent to police and state agenciesinthe U.S. were inaccurate federal payroll, have worked frauds on innocent people that have left the bureau with a contjnuing legacy of multimillion-dollar lawsuits. In another Congressional investigation of the FBI. Sen. Orrin Hatch's Labor and Human Resources Commit tee has concluded that. at best. the FBl's background investigation of Labor Secretaiy Raymond Donovan was sloppy. Senator Hatch feels that's the only reason he didn't receive all the information the bureau had on Dono van's alleged Mafia ties before his confinnation bearings were held. A recent study by the Office of Teclmow Assessment, an arm-of Congrest'has fM&tb almost half of a sample of criminal history records that the FBI sent to police. state agencies. banks and other institutions throughout the United States were in complete or inaccurate. There were no differences noted between arrests for serious and minor crimes: some records contained no infonnation on whethathepersonarrested was found guilty or innocent; and other records contained inaccurate information on charges and sentencing. Weighing the successes against the failures, is the FBI relevant to current times-and crimes? Yes, it's relevant," says FBI Director William Webster. "Criminal en terprise is today's problem: the orga nized criminal apparatus expressed in organized crime, drugs and various fonns of white-collar crime where you have confidence schemes involving a number of individuals. ... After years of counting stolen auto mobiles and captured fugitives. says Thomas Puccio, a former Justice De partment strike force prosecutor, .. the FBI is going in the right direction, dealing with the things that city and state police don't have the time or expertise for. 1 PARADE talked with dozens of po lice officials. Justice Department lawyers. lawyers from the American Civ il Liberties Union. Congressmen and academics. Everyone agrees: The FBI has never been better. It's never been more professional on the streets. Ifs never been more correctly connected to the political system. And yet. in talking about the FBI. Associate Attorney General Rudolph Guiliani pointed out that the United States has .. a crime rate that is the scandal of the Western World ... Even the FBI concedes that 277 arrests-when the Mafia population is somewhere between 3000 and 5000 -f.ar from rubs out the mob. And while Bancoshares was a resounding 1 success. $1 billion was spent last year to stop the drug traffic. and no more than JO percent of the narcotics entering the country was seized. The Judge Wood case is more typical of the bureau's successes: the thorough. painstaking. carefully documented work that goes into solving and tracking individual crimes and criminals. Why doesn t the FBI have more impact? The bureau is not underequipped. outmoded or badly led. And. as for the agents, .. there s no question in my mind savs the Harvard criminolo gist J~es Q. Wilson. that the aver age performance level is higher in the FBI than in any police department. ne FBI. .. admits Guiliani ... is close to overtaxed. ne FBI," says Wilson .. is overt~ed." 1be bureau made its reputation in the I930s-ridding the land. in daring and bloodv raids. of bank robbers and kidnappeis like John Dillinger. Baby I Face .. Nelson. Pretty Boy'' Floyd. \fa Barker. and Bonnie and Clvd~
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In the midst of the Depression. when local police were undermanned. un derequippedand underpaid. FBI agents knew how to shoot a pistol. subma chine gun. shotgun and rifle. They were the personal creation of young John Edgar Hoover. who had taken over a controversial and corrupt 16-year-old Bureau of Investigation in 1924. Hoover studied the methods of Scotland Yard. the Royal Canadian Mounted Police and the prefecture of Paris and designed the most potential ly effective law enforcement organiza tion in the country. The successful gangster hunts of the '30s introduced Hoover's newly efficient. newly in corruptible FBI to a grateful nation. Which grateful nation. ever since, has turned to the FBI like some Mr. Foot in times of national crises. in war and in peace. 1'he more effective the FBI got ... says a fonner director. William Ruck elshaus ... the more complicated the cases it was given. The more compli cated the cases got. the less efficient the FBI was. In the 1930s. the FBI had about 360 agents and jurisdiction in a half-dozen criminal areas, including bank robbery, kidnapping and prostitution rings. Today. there are 7887 agents and more than 200 classifications of crime that have been declared by Congress as federal offenses--ftom murder on government l~ds to skyjacking. kid napping, auto thefts, bank robberies. thefts from interstate shipments and multimillion-dollar nationally orga nized crimes of fraud and extortion. This year, at President Reagan's re. quest. narcotics was added to the list. At any one time, the FBI is handling 65,000 cases. lt also has a mandate to perform foreign counterintelligence duties-from hunting terrorists working in the U.S. to keeping track of known foreign spies contacts with AmeriI can citizens. The FBI also does backI ground checks on prospective federal employees and runs a national train ing academy for state and local police. "If something heavy happens ... says Director Webster. "it's :Uwavs, 'Get the FBI.' We don't even have Jurisdic tion in the Tylenol case, we didn't in I the Atlanta murders and we didn't in : the Vernon Jordan shooting. The Attorney General asked us to come in on those cases. We have trouble keeping our own priority cases going. ConI gressmen call. officials call. We are I I under stress-. Once the Marine Corps of law en-1 forcement. the FBI today more close;. ly resembles the Pentagon.' .. When I came into the bureau m 1940." says the former FBI agent and director Clarence Kelley, "there were 800 agents. After the war, the bureau ballooned. It is now a difficult place to conttol." The much-vaunted move from quan tity to quality-cases. begun a decade ago, has been painfully slow. Only about 40 percent of the FBI s criminal cases have to do with its announced priorities of organized crime and c?mplicated crimes of fraud and deception. "The guys in the field; says a former agent. *take advantage of headquarters playing bureaucratic paper and policy games to do what they want to do. Take those priorities, for instance. Maybe out of a group of 70 agents.you've got lOhotshots. Thef:C artists who don't want anybody sit ting on their shoulders. The rest of the guys only want to work 9 to 5--no weekends. thank you. Some guys want to QC elsewhere. Some guys can only work the little auto thefts. So you let them. That's how itreallyworks. Maybe Hoover got more out of his agents in the early years. but in the end. he f something heavy happens, it's, 'Get the FBI.' Weare under t ,, s ress. I had lost control too. Webster publicly admits that rela tions between the field and headquar ters are not ideal and privately admits to friends that he is terribly worried that those antagonisms. added to the FBl's entrV into drug enforcement. will strai~s to the breaking point--0ne of the most pri~~of the bureau s images: incorrupt1b1hty. How can we get back control and effectiveness'? continued ffl a
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FBI /continued ~onstantly. says the Notre Dame law professor and fOITner Congressional counsel G. Robert Blakey, ''we won-y about whether the FBI is honest and competent. We never get to the question of whether it is well used. A chaner would get us to that question," says Gary Hayes, executive director of the Police Executive Research Forum, a group of the highestranking law enforcement officials, which encourages cooperation among all the various parts of the countrys criminal justice system. Next year, the FBI will be 75 years old-and still it has no charter. "'A chaner," says Hayes, would define federal. state and local cooperation. It would clarify whom the FBJ works for. whom it is accountable to. and it would set up a policymaking process. Without a charter. bureau crats are left making the decisions. and that's not right in a democracy ... The FBI wrote a charter in 1979 and submined it for approval by Congress-where it has been the victim of a political stalemate ever since. with the conservatives wanting fewer restrictions on the bureau and the lib-, erals wanting more. "Any charter, says Sen. Joseph Biden. the ranking Democrat on the Judiciarv Comminee ... has to do more than list.duties and priorities. It has to have a game plan. a strategy on now to achieve them. What Biden is su1n!estin2 is no less than an overhaul ofthe C.S. criminal justice svstem. we ~eed goals: agrees Professor Blakey ... We need somebod; to a.-;k whether ic"s worth knocking om the Genovese Mafia familv. \!-,'hat" s its effectonprostitution?Gambiing?Racketeering? weve only got 8(}{Xl !-""Bl agents. If it takes 25 agents two years to get one mobster. and that mobster is drawing an average 18-month sentence. is that something they should be putting any time on? What's it worth in the overall national crime picture? If Abscam cost $2 million. was that money well spent? What s the actual cost to the country of whitecollar crime? The Justice Department lawyers, for whom the FBI works. are the core of the problem. I'm a law professor, and these are my people. They are trained in logical analysis and precedent, and they work case by case. Our Depart..'llent of Justice is a late 18th-. earlv I 9th-centurv law office-still directing individuai cases like they did in the Civil War. hoping that that will bring about 'justice.' whatever we mean by that." Nb one believes we can do without an FBI. But is this FBI the best we can do? '"This FBI:' wavs Neil \Vetch. former New York b'i.treau director. "is now just another bureaucratic law en forcement entity. We need to go back and take a lesson from the "30s. \1.e had a few targets at a time. We wenr after them and Ot therr .. The FBI. slimmed down ;fall its bureaucrati.: fat. could be-and should be-a mobi le strike force." were always wa~ing wars ori crime, says Professor Blakey. and yet we have no realistic. long-rem man and resource planning. \Ve don't need new ideas. We dont need another commission on crime. \Ve need a pian. We need goals. We need an FBI correctlv. effectiveh--selecti\'ely-deployed. Were wasting a lot of money with our scattershot apprcach \\,.e re wasting a lot of time. And \\ e are not winning any of our wan: CT crime. The FBI is a superb surpcai tool. not a pipe wrencb. ;\ow how a:-t vou 2oin2 to use it? C:mil we can comeup -with that answer. we have got to expect the bureau s performance to be erratic. rs;
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Many FBI Files Are. Inaccurate, Study Finds Every day, thousands of police departments and state agencies, as w~ll as banks and other employers, ~P. mto the FBI's vast computerized cnmmal files, which contain the arrest records of millions of Americans. A report released by a congressional research team has found that such a syste~, if accurate and well managed, can 1mprove law enforcement. But the same report also found that almost half of the records they sampled for the study were either inaccurate or incomplete. The survey' entitled "An Assessment of Alternatives for a National Computerized Criminal History System," was conducted by researchers at thrf~fice of Technolo5X Assessmept (0 a branch ot Congress. Before Congress approves the pro posed national computerized lib~ar~ of criminal histories, the report said, it should consider the impact the sys~em could have on people's lives if ~e in formation were inaccurate or misused. According to ,the report's princi?al author, Fred Wood, such information has traditionally been controlled by law enforcement agencies. But with the instant accessibility of computers and the difficulty of controlling such a data bank, Congress is considering shifting responsibility to a wider range of government branches. The report found that FBI criminal POLICE MMiAZINE NEW YORK, :'IY 6 Tl. A YR. 30,000 JAN 198f/L records are being used increasingly to determine if an individual should be hired for a job, licensed for a profession or admitted to a training program. The report supported the use of criminal records to screen individuals who might be a threat to co-workers, other citizens or valuable assets. But it expressed concern that people on whom inaccurate files are kept -and there are perhaps 15 million according to OT A statistics -were "pbtentially exposed to employment disqualification because of an arrest record." The researchers concluded that Congress should consider who should have policy control over the system, who should have access, an.cl what standards should be used to determine completeness and accuracy of information. The study was based on 333 files, taken from the millions that were sent out in 1979. Half wer-e drawn from the FBI Identification Division Criminal File, which is the modern equivalent of the manual rap sheet system. Only a third of the data in this file has been computerized. The other samples came from the newer, but much smaller, National Crime Information Center (NCIC) computerized data bank of criminal history records. According to author Wood, only eight states contribute actively to this system. There is no federal law requiring states to contribute. The records were then compared with files from the police departments that produced them originally. The study showed that both FBI systems had problems. In the Identification Division, 29.6 percent of the records contained no final disposition on the cases listed, and an additional 20.2 percent contained information on dis position, sentencing or charges that was inaccurate. The NCIC records were only slightly better, with 27.1 percent without a disposition, and 19.4 percent incorrect. According to Wood, these results are consistent with a survey OT A did of states' disposition reporting systems. They concluded that about one-third of all court dispositions are not being reported to state criminal record depos itories. In 14 states, they found that fewer than 25 percent of court dispositions were being reported. The po tential damage is serious, Wood said. "You want people to be treated accord ing to their true record." This is espe cially important because of the increas ing reliance of employers on these criminal records, he stressed. Through professional associations or state licens ing boards, banks, security firms and other employers with sensitive busi ness can submit names or fingerprints for cross-checking with FBI files. "If they've got ten people and a couple of them have arrest records," said Wood, "forget it." FBI spokesman Calvin Shishido agreed that many of the inaccurate records resulted from the failure of local law enforcement agencies to send in dispositions, updates or corrections. The sheer number of records makes it nearly impossible for the FBI to keep track of the~. According to Shishido, there were, as of last October, 80,192,114 criminal records in FBI files, including many duplications. The study also raised the possibility that such a system may be used to monitor the lawful activities of individuals or organizations. "To understand this concern," the OT A report said, "one must remember that the debate over the national computerized criminal history system ,began in the late 1960's and early 1970's, when the FBI was engaged in domestic political intelligence and surveillance activities .... The report rtoted that last September, the Justice Department agreed to a Secret Service re quest to start files on persons considered a threat to officials guarded by the Service even if those suspected had not been "formally charged with a cri minal offense." Sen. Charles Mathias of Maryland, chairman of the Subcommittee on Criminal Law of the Senate Judiciary Committee, concluded that, "Verifiable and accessible criminal history information will improve the efficiency of our criminal justice system .... But the records of the system must be complete and accurate; they must be safe-guarded against improper access and dissemination; and their contents must be limited to the minimum necessary to accomplish the system's goals."
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ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH ST. LOUIS, MO. D. 236,888 S. 430.030 OEC 16 198? : editorials [ EDITORlf Big Brother Computer With the approval of the. Reagan administration, the Federal Bureau of Investigation is going ahead with an expanded computerized crime information network that has the potential for the abuse of citizens' rights. Jnown as the Interstate Identification Index, the system will be a vastly expanded version of the FBrs current computerized National Crime .Information Center that already links tens of thousands of state and local criminal justice agencies. Testing of the new communications system is scheduled to begin early next year with the enthusiastic support of Attorney General .William French Smith, who maintains that it will help reduce crime. Others including some members of Congress, law enforcement officials and former White House computer experts,are convinced that it will provide no panacea for the crime problem but could be used to deny people jobs and encroach on civil liberties. Previous FBI requests to build an expanded system were turned .down for these reasons by Edward Levi, Griffin Bell and Benjamin Civiletti when they occupied the attorney general's office. And President Ford's telecommunications adviser denounced the idea. The FBI's computer already provides some 64,000 investigative groups with direct or indirect access to information on about nine million stolen items and 190,000 persons actively being sought by law enforcement agencies. But it is now used for the limited purposes of helping agencies to locate stolen property or identify persons wanted for arrest. In its e:ii.-panded version, it would be used to widely disseminate not just conviction records but also arrest records so-called rap sheets. Yet the FBI's current data system is often not up.to-date and its information is sometimes incorrect. A study done for the congressional~ of Technolof@ Assessment found thdt"'oiily one out of our 7hl tB.e r.''Brs records was complete, accurate and unambiguous. The effect of incorrect information is illustrated by the case of Michael Ducross, who was stopped for making an illegal left turn by a California policeman, whose department then communicated with the FBl's computer, which told police that Mr. Ducross was wanted for being AWOL from the Marine Corps: Mr. Ducross spent five months in prison before the government discovered that he had never been AWOL and had in fact been discharged from the Marines. The potential for abuse is especially great with respect to rap sheets. Approximately 40 million Americans have an arrest record in many cases for minor offenses such as disorderly conduct, teen-age pranks or public drunkenness. Be.cause of state permissiveness or laxity, such records are being increasingly used outside the criminal justice system by banks, state licensing boards, employers and institutions. Arrest records, even if there is no conviction, are frequently used to deny people employment or privileges. The chances of such denials, or of wrongful detentions or invasions of privacy will proliferate if information is further centralized and then widely distributed. Congress should impose limits on the FBI before the agency puts its Big Brother computer into operation.
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LOS ANGELES, CAL \ DAILY COl\1MERCE !]. 5.300 I ~--/ DEC 20 1982 r Big Brothe,r_Profe(:J~,t~e President? l -.. By SETH ROSENFELD' .,.,,. .~s~~tlon and notation that SS considers_:,_ -~ .. But a study last October by the g~.QI Pacific News Service them "mentally unstable" or "~rmed and 4fSHWSP~ a congress1onre-. Under pressure to better protect the presl dangerous." Thus, SS could momtor the ac_ se ranc wame that such use of dent ever since the attempted assassination tivlUes of people it deems dangerous, even if NCIC could result in. "unwarranted invaMarch 30, 1981, by John Hinckley Jr., the Sethey are law-abiding citizens who have com-slons of privacy and Improper arrests or decret Service and the FBI have proposed a mitted no crime.tentlon." Other observers charge that the precedent.setting surveillance system that In the aftermath of the Hinckley attempt, plan would tum NCIC inside out :from a is drawing fire from civil libertarians. the plan gained swift approval from the FBI, service which provides law agencies around The proposed system would authorize use the attorney general and the Treasury Dethe country with listings of stolen cars, missof the FBI's. National Crime Information partment, of whichss is an arm. But on Ca. Ing guns and people wanted for serious Center (NCIC), a massive computer netpltol Hill the plan hit a snag. In a letter to SS ... crimes, into a centrallzed.s~eillance syswork of 64,000 state, local and federal crimiDirector John Simpson, Rep. Don Edwards, tern using those agencies to funnel informanal justice agencies, to monitor law-abiding 0-Calif., expressed "grave concerntt about tion to the FBI and SS. citizens, if the Secret Service considered criteria for listing people and what_ data "It would be the_ first time NCIC could be them a threat to Uie president. would be collected and disseminated on used as an intelllgence tool, the first time Secret ~ervice (SS) claims the proposed ======================= NCIC could be used to list people charged program, which could go into. effect early Warn Ing: s. u bJ' ect is a with no crime," commented one congressionext year without congressional approval, is nal staffer. a "potentially valuable tool'' in protecting threat to u .'.s. Sec' ret -.. The American Clvll Liberties Union's legthe president and other protectees from peo... ,. ~, __ ,. .... _. ,. 1s,@~~ye_~.!9t~ ~~.rr:Y Berman, called SS's pie like Hinckley, Sara Jane Moore and s1r.: 5 ''dangerous liidlviduals" list "open-ended." ban Sirhan. ,,.. ervice protecte_e : "They (SS) files are full of derogatory in-But some law enforcement officials say ============================= _formation, unsubstantiated allegations and the plan would be "worthless." And civil them. \' : : charges," Berman said. "We think It would rights advocates compare it to the FBl's po-"While your objective is obvio~y well in-be very dangerous to have that information Utical surveillance in the 1970s and charge tentloned ... it may have the unintended ef-floating around to policemen all over the that lt would be the first step toward using feet of creating an unfavorable precedent country and letting them feed backinto the NCIC as an intelllgence tool..:.. something without the careful review and analysis we system." .. ,... for which it was never intended. prefer,'' wrote Edwards, a former FBI Berman and other observers compared To provide "preventative protection" to agent who chairs the Subcommittee on ~lvil _the SS proposal to the F!U's unauthorized the president, SS currently maintains a comand Constitutional Rights. use of NCIC as a part of its unconstitutional puter list of 25,000 potential assassins. The Secret Service spokespersons declined to and lllegal COINTELPRO to "disrupt and agency focuses on a smaller group of "dan-.. discuss such questions with a reporter, but neutralize" lawful protest during the early gerous indlvlduals" who allegedly have SS and Justice Department memos de1970S. threatened the president.. Every three :'. scribed how the SS determines who qualifies Secret Service claims that use of NCIC months, SS agents interview them, gatheras a "dangerous individual." would have several benefits, allowing agents Ing information on the psychological, crimi... First, ss sifts through the more than 25 reto keep closer track of people on its danger; na1 and political backgrounds. As of last ports of threats lt receives each day from ous individuals list, providing immediate no-Ap~, ss listed 382 "dangerous individuals," "numerous and varied means." If the threat tice of their involvement in "criminal 257 of whom were confined to prisons or was written, or reported by a reliable activity which could be related to protecmental institutions, while 125 had no outsource, two SS agents interview the person tees," and alerting officers that the person standing warrants and were "at large." who allegedly made the threat. If the agents they. are dealing with may be unstable or Under the proposal, SS would place data determine he or she could carry it out, they armed. on these 125 people into the FBl's NCIC data ~end an evaluation of "dangerous,. .to their But even law enforcement officials are at bank. Whenever any of the law enforcement field supervisor. If the supervisor agrees, odds over whether the system would make agencies in the NCIC network had contact : the evalliatlon ls sentto Washington for final the president any safer. SS admits that out of with them, such as during a routine traffic review before approval for the list. the last five attempts to assassinate a presi check, the officer would get a message like Secret Service claims lt takes great care dent, only one would-be assassin, Lynette this over his car terminal, accordiqg to an In who it counts as "dangerous." "Squeaky" Fromme, was on its list of danFBI memo: "We cannot stress enough that the evaluagerous individuals, and she managed to at "WARNING-SUBJECT IS A THREAT tlon of 'dangerous' Is not arrived at lightly tempt to shoot President Gerald Ford TO U.S. SECRET SERVICE PROTECTEE. during an investigation, 0 said Director Sim anyway. IMMEDIATELY CONTACT SECRET psoninalettertoRep. Peter Rodino, D-N.J., "Their hit rate is zero, and my reaction is SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOR FUR who chairs the House Judiciary Committee. that it will always be zero," an official said. THER INFORMATION." In a report the FBI concluded that "the poCongressman Edwards plans to hold hearThe message would instruct the officer to tential effect of this proposed system on the ings on the SS proposal before his subcom make no arrest based on this information. It privacy and other personal or property mittee in the near future. also would give the subject's physical de-rightsofindlvidualswillben_egliJibl~ ....
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Implications of Electronic -Mail and Message Systems for the U.S. Postal Service
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CHICAGO SUN-TllVIES CH.ICAGO, ILL D. 655,832 SUN. 680,940 ~! JAN 19 1983 1 Electronic messa{le-sending: are you r~@IIM fc,r.revolution? The proliferai:ion of ~e Video game I Sy1va Porter and small buameaa m1crocomputera is drastically altering the way we communi cate. M~es sent between computers and with the national accounting firm of Main displayed on video terminals are an everyHurdman: "A company that ia not now day occurrence in many_ corporations and actively planning to expand beyond tradi government agencies. As computer& betional communication technology will be come a part of 'hundrecfs of .thousands of at a competitive disadvantage when the additional homes every year (via video new electronic message systems emerge aa games) and we become more comfortable the cheapest way to move information.,. with them, it will be only a short time Consumers and companies alike are con before we begin to communicate regularly fused on which service ia best, which will with each other through microcomputers.' produce the biggest cost savings. whether Long-distance discounters such as MCI, we even need a system. Here are four which relays calls over its own microwave major areas to consider when deciding circuits, are doing a booming business your needs, says. Mam Hurdman: moving into AT&T's lucrative long-dis- Study the eziating communications sys tance market. tem. The new technology is likely to re But it's not just the phone company place it. that's threatened. The post office ia a Determine the types of messages you target as well. -want to send. Who will_ participate in the In a recent warning to the U.S. Postal new system? Service, Congress' 9iff9 a(. TJ~n2l~ e Eumine eziating work patterns. Busi .t\l!Cp;!rd the v ume 01 papet"ltliF Dess communication is not done in iaola is exp fo fall in the 1990s due to tion. The potential impact of changing increasing competition from computer-toexisting communication habits depends on computer communications. Many r:arms althe degree to which communication ia ready have computers that talk directly to already an. important part of your everyeach other instead. of printing documents day activitia -to be mailed. Ia the system compatible with other No one ia certain when such high-techofiice S}'ltems? Message systems existing nology communications will become really in conjunction with other office activi big business, but the promotora of the ties-whether the system is part of a systems are already aggressively selling. general office project or an enhancement their products. of an existing system. How 't.ill new com In the words, of ~oward Weinberg, a munications ,ystems fit together with 1."0mputer and telecommunications expert word-processlng and data processing?
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ENGU:EERING TIMES WASi-lir~GTON, D.C. MONTHLY 78,525 JAN 19r' ;Battle Grows over Post Office Role in Electronic Mail Delivery Market By Paul Karoff Staff Writer The U.S. Postal Service's fledgling electronic mail system, inaugurated just one year ago, was sharply criti cized by Congress in a recent House committee report. Meanwhile, an...Qi... fice of Technology Assessment stl'icty' cbncluded that makmg electronic mail profitable for the semi-auton omous Postal Service may be the only way to keep rates for conventional mail service from escalating wildly during the next decade. The report by the 1-{ouse Commit tee on Government Operations, en titled "Postal Service Electronic Mail: The Price Isn't Right," scolds the Postal Service's board of governors for being less than candid about their controversial foray into computer assisted mail delivery. The electronic computer-originated mail (E-COM) allows those with compatible computer tenpinals to transmit messages via telephone lines to Post Office computers where they are automatically transcribed into typewritten letters, inserted in enve lopes, and sent by regular mail. E-COM volume averaged 172,000 pieces of mail per week duringJuly. E-COM subsidies? The committee print says, "Postal Service claims that E-COM is an un qualified success" are "based on an all too rosy analysis of certain data." In addition, the report claims that the E-COM service is being subsidized by other postal services, something spe cifically prohibited in the Postal Ser vice's charter. Since the service began, E-COM has drawn strong opposition from private companies plannin~ or already involved in similar kmds of electronic message services. The Postal Service maintains that its charter allows it to promote the most effi cient and cost-effective mail service by taking whatever modernizing steps it deems necessary. Others, on the other hand, complain E-COM is synonymous with the government en tering into competition with private industry. Everyone agrees electronic mail de livery is destined to become a huge market, capable of handling up to two thirds of the mail currently moved by conventional means. As the electronic medium assumes a greater share of the nation's mail load, it will become more and more difficult for the Postal Service to offer the services it currently provides without enormous rate increases. The OTA reP.ort predicts that con ventional mail volume delivered by the Postal Service will peak and then fall below today's level sometime dur ing the next decade. Legal Challenges The question now facing lawmak ers in Washington is how the Postal Service will be able to continue pro viding standard mail service at rea sonable rates in the face of such dras tically declining revenues. To manv, the answer is to allow the agency to get into electronic delivery in a big way. A telecommunications reform bill which passed the Senate earlier this year articulated and strengthened the Postal Service's role in the elec tronic mail area. But a companion bill in the House was scuttled and the provision never became law. Mean while, the Post Office is wallowing in a flood of litigation challenging its right to offer E-COM services. Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska), who chairs a subcommittee with jurisdic tion over Post Office activities, has said electronic mail service offers "the best opportunity to increase in come which can then be used for gen eral operating expenses of the Postal Service." The House panel endorsed legisla tion that would create a separate of fice within the Pn~ial Setvice to man age all electronic mail services. .. -.... -......
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The Implications of Cost-Effectiveness Analysis o~ Medical Technology: Case Study #12: Assessing Selected Respiratory Therapy Modalities: Trends and Relative Costs in the Washington, D.C. Area
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BUSINESS INSURANCE CHICAGO, ILL. w. 36,400 ,--ec,es hoping to eliminate unnecessary respiratory care WASHINGTON-The Blue Cross/~lue Shield Assn. is implementing new cost-containment guidelines that it says could save "hundreds of millions of dollars a year" now spent on respiratory therapy. The association estimates $4 billion a year is spent on respira tory therapy, a type of hospital care whose. popularity has increased since the 1950s. About 25% of all in patients receive some type of respi~ ratory treatment, BC/BS says. However, such therapy may be pushing up health care costs unnec essarily, the Blues say, explaining that hospitals may apply or physi cians may prescribe .sophisticated respiratory therapy techniques without analyzing if the therapy would be effective. To combat unnecessary respira tory therapy, the BC/BS guidelines spell out specific circumstances when the procedures are appropri ate or should be limited. The guidelines also state that, in certain circumstances, reimbursement for respiratory treatment will be refused or limited if it cannot be justified. For example, many hospitals ad minister routine respiratory tests to patients prior to an operation. However, if the patient has no symptoms or history of pulmonary disease, does not smoke and does not have an occupation that might cause exposure to lung contaminants, the guidelines advise that a Blue Cross or Blue Shield plan should not pay for such tests. In cases when oxygen therapy is prescribed, the guidelines recommend that a BC/BS plan require documentation of continued need after a prescribed time period. The association says that oxygen ther apy is often continued .long after it is needed for victims of bean at tacks, pneumonia, pulmonary em bolisms, drug overdose, hepatic failure or other medical emergen cies. BC/BS noted a study by the 0~ -~of T~qgv }.tsessl!l,1,,ri,"a corf resslofutresearcti.~ency' which say~ the increased use of respiratory care services "has oc curred without much scientific evidence demonstrating that they bring about a measurable improvement in the patient's physical con dition." The study also points out that 25% of all patients receiving respi ratory therapy were given a treatment called intermittent positive pressure breathing, or IPPB, at a cost of nearly $1 billion annually. The guidelines will not undermine the quality of care a patient receives but are meant to "raise the level of cost-consciousness of our subscribers, physicians and hospi tals," says Bernard R. Tresnowski, BC/BS president. "Any effort which helps control costs without lowering the quality of care will benefit everyone." Implementation of the guidelines will begin with educational programs to acquaint hospitals and physicians with the new criteria. Ultimately, BC/BS will require jus tification of respiratory therapy in\ return for reimbursement. \ \
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Postmarketing Surveillance of Prescription Drugs
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CHEMICAL AND E~GiNEERING NEWS WASHll~GTON, D.C. w. 115,000 JAN 17 ~Jk_ 198~ Program for postmarket drug monitoring urged {...)..Cf7V Much attenhon has been focused studies voluntarily, and the com-during the past year on finding:ways panies have cooperated. OTA spec to improve the drug approval proulates that some of that cooperation cess, mostly through changing the may result from the companies' fear new drug application procedures of that their drug applications would be the Food & Drug Administration. refused if they did not cooper~te. Another idea getting increased atCosts of doing large postmarket tention is use of postmarketing sur-studies run from $1 million to $3. veillance of drug effects as another, million. perhaps more efficient means of asPostmarket surveillance would not suring a drug's safety and efficacy. A be a substitute for present clinical new report from the~f0ss ~I;~h.-studies, the report says, but a sup~tAssessmen1 .reviews this issue plement. Current rules set up a an efalTs 4w~t1 actions could be methodology that leads to cli_nical taken. tests of at most about 3000 persons Until now, the maih interest in before a drug can be approved. Most improving the drug approval process of these tests are to see ~f there are has been on streamlining and/or alany advers~ effects, the smaller por leviating the effects of the premarket tion to test efficacy of the drug. But testing a drug must undergo. This that small a number does not guar has been exemplified in recent atantee all effects will be found. Pro tempts to extend the patent life of a ponents of postmarketing surveildrug, in a report by a Congressional lance say an effective program would commission on the drug approval be able to spot potential problems process, and in efforts to reinterpret quicker while stiJl delivering im certain statutes by FDA. portant drugs to needy people soon-However, interest in the pos~er. Opponents point out that FDA market monitoring of drugs has been can take only limited legal action building since the 1960s, generated against a drug, once it has been ap then by the thalidomide tragedy. In proved, without substantial evidence Britain, a working postmarket re-it is harmful. porting system already has evolved. If Congress decides that FDA It uses voluntary reporting from should engage in postmarket sur physicians and drug companies to veillance, OTA says there are three find adverse drug effects. main options for action. The first is to Recent incidents in the U.S. have give FDA authority to require dn.ig heightened calls for such action here. companies to do the monitoring. Most recently, Eli Lilly~ Co. pulled OTA says drug companies could be its arthritis drug Oratlex off the expected to resist this idea, without market following its ban in the U.K. some concessions, because of the on the suspicion that the drug was high costs. A second option is to give implicated in some serious health FDA power to restrict the distribu problems, including some deaths. tion, dispensing, and administering Still, efforts to set up some formal of a drug after its approval. This postmarket monitoring procedures would g{ve the agency much better in the U.S. have not gone far. The control over a drug in the first few issue has become more than just that years when adverse effects are most of surveying the effects of new likely to be identified. The third op drugs. The OT A report contends that tion is to change the language of the it has gotten wrapped up with efforts law so that FDA can remove drugs to speed the drug approval process from the market when they are "an and calls for the monitoring of all unreasonable risk to any segment of drugs for effective and appropriate the population" rather than an "im use. Action by Congress is needed, minent hazard to public health." This because, as the law is presently would let FDA pull a drug for any of written, FDA has little legal power to several acceptable reasons without control distribution of drugs after first giving notice to the company they have been approved. and holding a public hearing as is FDA has requested that drug now required. companies do some postmarket Dm,id Hanson, Washington ,,..,-... --. --
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Th~ Pittsburgh Press PITTSBURGH, PA. D. 262,760 SUN. 618,380 ~L FEB 17 1983 !Faster Action Urged To Curb Drugs That Prove Dangerous By DON KIRKMAN Scripps-Howard Science Writer : : WASHINGTON The governm-ent should have the power to move much more swiftly to remove from the market licensed drugs that are found to cause deadly side effects, a congression al agency says.According to a study by the QWCj of a'l]hf/;'li H~nt thf!.,government's e tor o an ada erouHug are hampered by red tape, and newly.licensed pharmaceuticals aren't monitored closely enough. The OTA criticism follows .96 deaths world wide -20 in the United States during the past two years from the anti-arthritis drug Oraflex. Last year Oraflex was taken off drugstore shelves after it was found to trigger liver and kidney damage, gastrointestinal bleeding and perforated ulcers. The fatal effects weren't detected during the drug's tests on animals and humans but began showing up when the chemical was used by thousands of arthritis victims. The OT A report says congressional action is needed because, as the law is now written, the Food and Drug Administration has little control over drugs after they're licensed and moves too slowly when a drug turns out to be dangerous. Oraflex isn't the only drug that has caused deadly side effects. In the early 1970s a chemical treatment for cardiovascular disease, Practolol, killed 2 percent of those who took it. In the 1960s the drug chloramphenicol caused dozens of painful deaths from aplastic anemia, a blood disease. The most famous incident of all involved the drug thalidomide. It killed or deformed tens of thousands of babies whose mothers took the drug during pregnancy. Thalidomide was never li censed in the United States. The OTA study said the FDA asks drug companies to voluntaril)I monitor their new drugs for a number of years after they're licensed. Not all do, however. OT A said Congress should require all drug companies to conduct extensive post-licensing studies to make certain their new preparations aren't causing dangerous side effects. Secondly, the agency urged Congress to give the FDA power to restrict the sale of any drug found to pose an "unreasonable risk" to the public allowing sale only to persons who have no alternative medication. The "unreasonable risk" determination would permit the FDA to ban a drug without the necessity of holding time-consuming public hear ings. An FDA spokesman said the agency is studying the report but hasn't made up its mind about the necessity for new legislation. The Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Associ ation, the lobbying voice of the drug industry, failed to respond to a request for its views on the/ OTA report. --
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LAS VEGAS, NEV. REVIEW-JOURNAL 0. 87.475 SUN. 96,581 SAT. 80,468 DEC 19 19tt~-. ....__.,-gency calls for post-marketing I "\C,-) ... ,. .. .. .,. evaluation of drugs -:. ~' .,...,;_,", ... -1~. ~..:., .. ... ,. ~-.,.,, ,._;.,:_. I( d I I f -By Betty Anne Wil :;.Jlams ;' Associated Press .,, WASHINGTON ProblJms .~ with the arthritis drug Oratlex un '-..derscore the need for increased eval ::, uation of prescription drugs after they are placed on the market, the _Qffic~ of Technology Assessment ,~essional agency said in a report .this week that as more atten tion has been focused on the pre marketing drug-approval process, in terest in post-marketing surveillance : has waned. The OT A called for de :. velopment of an efficient method for Q)onitoring drugs after they become available to consumers. The Food and 'Drug Administra tion, attempting to shorten the time ~twee:n drug development and inar~ keting,: has proposed a variety of changes in the approval process by which a product must be proven safe and effective. : The OTA cited three widely-publicized cases where drugs were withdrawn from the market as examples of why it considers post-marketing evaluations important. The case involving Oraflex is the most recent. Eli Lilly and Co .. of Indianapolis ended worldwide_.sales of the drug in August after it had been available for only three months in the United States and for two years in Great Britain and several other countries. The drug was asso ciated with at least 61 deaths by the time the company decide
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DATE TIME STATION LOCATION PROGRAM T.V. CLIPS December 15, 1982 5:00-6:00 PM WCAU-TV(CBS) Channel Ten Philadelphia Live at Five Deborah Knapp reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 6297 Y A congressional agency said increased evaluation of new prescription drugs should be made before and after they are placed on the market. The Ojfjce pf Technology As~essment statedrecent problems with the arthritis drug, ~ri~iex, is one reason the postmarketing evaluations are needed. Video cassettes are available in any format from our affiliate VIDEO MON.ITORING SERVICES Of AMERICA, INC, for a penod of four weekS from air date Call 212-736-2010
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Genet~c Screening and Cytogenetic Surveillance in the Workplace
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HOUSTON CHRONICLE HOUSTON, TEXAS O. 384.305 SIJN. ~Sri 512 ..... ir.. .... ~, .. ,, t "' _,. /' ., BY RUTH SoRELLE ,.-': Chro_nicle ?,iedical Writer l~ :;-~'l / ,/ '!'he entire matter of genetic testing is a shuttlecock batted} back and forth by the scientific biases of the experts. As of yet, few companies are using it and. n~ one. could identify a particular worker who bad been demed a Job or moved from a job because of it. In a survey of the Fortune 500, 50 major Last utilities and 11 labor unions, the Congressof three ional O.ffitiG .gt; ]#glggy AeW!)eP~ could Fmtr oli!y six companies tHaf ac-'------knowledged they were using such tests. Another 17 said they had at one time and 59 said they were interested. Geoffrey Karny, an attorney-aide for the OTA, says that the responses represented a mishmash of genetic screening, testing for genetic traits and monitoring. "We were looking at genetic testing as it applied to the workplace -where workers are tested to see if they have certain heritable traits on the theory that some of these ~i,ht increase a worker's risk," Karny said. Ee said the six companies that said they performed ge netic testing could have been doing biochemical assays forg,2n1tic disease, pre-employment genetic screening or gPnetic monitoring. The survey did not separate those and d.j no! seek such information. Of the 5fl companies that expressed interest in such testin, for the future, four said they would use the technoiogy in th:: n.::::t 10 vears and 55 said they might, Karny said. : he OT A re!X)rt on genetic testing is still in preliminary phases and Karny was reluctant to comment on it because he had not received the opinions of reviewers across the country. Dr. Marvin Legator. head of genetic toxicology at the University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston, is one of the reviewers. "OT A is a horrible report. It is an obvious atte:npt to discredit the technology. The problems in how to appiy the technology in the workplace are exaggerated." Karny believes his report is a good one, but he cautions that he bases much of it on the opinions of his technical advisors. ''Diseases such as cancer are multifactorial and are complex mechanisms. The report is going to indicate that a risk of cancer is very much an open question," Kamy said. "Our conclusion is that none of the current genetic tests meet established scientific criteria for routine use in an occupational setting. However, there is enough suggestive evidence to merit further research," Kamy told a recent ,. -\ f~ ,: /.':':'. r ,.. r ~ ''"i l ~:pl t..r re t'_.:.~.rv.' _.,i'.! 1,.t..;. ,r;:-."', ~--"' ... [ i ; f ~,). ,, ,I -fl"~-;" ; t. t i : ~/ session of the Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science and Technology. One group, led by Legator, said that genetic monitoring is valid when used as a warning tool and applied only to groups of workers and not to individuals. Excess chromosome breakage in certain groups of workers is a warning signal that there is something bad in the workplace and it must be cleaned up, said this group. It cannot be used to say that one person is more likely to get cancer. Another group, led by industry_ experts, said that genetic testing is not at the point where scientists can say it indicates an}thing other than the fact that chromosomes are abnormal or broken. Dr. John Venable, medical director of Dow Chemical Co., said of his company's experience, "Some of us felt thlt we were not learning enough out of cytogenetics
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whJ s:ifier from rare cnncer syndromes that follow familial l1nes. "There seems to be a correlation between spontaneous chron:osome breaks and cancer. Chromosome breaks are manifest symptoms of genetic instability," Hsu said. Similar problems beset genetic screening .. Most experts Ggre-e that chromosomal screening is not yet at the point where doctors can tell a person he or she is at risk or cannot ha\e a job because of abnormalities found throu~h a micro scope. Testing for certain genetic tr~its, such as sickle cell or e::zy:ne deficiencies, has been perfected, but with few excepti0ns, experts seem unwilling to say that any genetic trait sho'.1id exclude someone from the workplace. Eut even if the science is refined to the point that it is valid and useful, certain ethical issues will remain. Perhaps no one understands the ethical problems better than Hsu, who views them from outside the conflicting view. of industry or scientific advocacy. "Let's suppose the concept is correct. If all the technology and methodology is standardized, you may be able identify who is at risk of getting cancer," Hsu said. "Then the second problem is, should a person who actually shows some kind of (genetic) instability be refused employment? Or should he be advised that it is best for you not to work in this environment because you might be at risk of getting cancer more easily than som?ne else? ''I'm not sure. What if the worker said, 'I don't care. I only want a job. And you cannot refuse me a job because of this meager finding.' "The company may say. 'Now we know you are more s~zsceptible to the environment, and so if you want to work in Jc1r country in this environment, when yo get cancer, don't biame us.' "Can thev say that? I don't know." Peter Bellin, an industrial hygienist with the Worke_r's Insti!ute for Safety and Health, fears that such screening ccu:d lead to a blame-the-victim mentality. "I'm afraid of an attitude where the individual worker is t1::med for bec.oming ill as a result of exP?sure to ".1-'orkplace cr.::micals. It would be better to emphasiie cleaning up the workplace," Bellin said. ''The answer is to insta11 adequate engineering controls, to substitute safer chemicals, to institute administrative cont~0ls 2nd to provide adequate protective equipment as r:c:c-aed to protect workers." Dr. Rafael Moure. an environmental health expert with the Oil Chemical and Atomic Workers Union, said, "Jhe principle' issue that concerns u;; is the is~ue o~ confidenti~lity and protection of workers that would arise with any medical tests conductt-d in a work environment." He fears the impact !)f the tests on job security. If such testing is used routinely as a -job-screening. pre-employmen: tool, Moure said the company could use it as an excuse for refusing employment to workers it finds undesirable fur some other reason. l\foure points out that certain genetic traits for which in dustry can test are concentrated in racial or ethnic groups. "Our concern is that this is a situation that would have a serious social impact," he said. "You're going to mark a person as an untouchable. This kind of information is transmitted from one comp.my to another. You'll create a situation in which u,js person will b-a stopped from getting a job. He will be converted into an invalid. "I don't want a private company to make that decision for me. The burden of proof is not on the person to say that test is no good. The burden of proof has to be on the company to 'prove that their test is scientifically suitable." He fears that the "industry is not interested in pursuing occupational preventive activity. They are trying to say if they weed out workers who are susceptible. then we are not going to need stringent controls there'll be a bunch of superworkers. That would be a substitute to decreasing expo sures." Catherine Damme, an attorney with a master's degree in public health who works in the department of family practice and community medicine for the UT Medical School at Hous ton. wrote in a paper _in the most recent issue of Teratogenesis, Carcinogenesis, and Mutagenesis (a professional journal,. "A notation of a test result in an employee's work or medical record could conceivable transform that worker into an unemployable pariah." Dr. Margery Shaw. director of the medical genetics center for the UT School of Biomedical Sciences in Houston. said she sees no differences between genetic testing and standard medical tests which are u~ed. "It is very useful to have it on a person's record so you would know what their normal (chromosome) bre;;J: r
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DATE TIME NETWORK J:>ROGRAM T.V. CLIPS December 8, 1982 12:30-6:30 PM Financial_ News Network The Business Connection Eva Dyer reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 6297 Y Genetic engineering has not only spawned great controversy, but an industry with a billion dollar potential as well. The U.S. government Office-gifiI@SJ.w;;/JQgv ~s,gssm;pt has estimated that sales fbr retombihant DNA pro ucts in t~e chemical and pharmaceuticalindustry alone will be fifteen billion by the turn of the century. Ddctor Martin Cline, a professor of oncology at the University of California, Los Angeles, is with us to discuss the latest research developments in genetic engineering and the.commercial applications of these developments. * (Eva Dyer and Doctor Martin Cline discuss the uses for recombinant DNA.) Video cessenes are available in any format from our aff,hate VIDEO MONITORING SER\1CES OF AMERICA, INC., tor a period of lour weeks t,0,-, 111r date Call 212-736-2010
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Industrial and Commercial. Cogeneration
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ERO ENERGY RESEARCH DIGEST WASHINGTON, D.C. Bl-WEEKLY ~. MAR 7 1983 ../ ........ .................................................................................... .............................. ............... ,, ... ,, .. ,pn ASSKSSIIS COGKlllllirIOII I After taking a two-year look at cogenera tion, the congressional.Office of ~-~hasb; og~Assessment has reacne3 three prlncipFIDc~nc lus iotis. On the. basis of original analysis and modeli~g done as part of a congeration study issued last week, OTA contends that the potential for cogeneration in commercial buildings is quite limited. CogeneraI t ion R&D efforts should conceiitrate on I demonstrating efficient machines that burn Ii solid fuels cleanly, advanced combustion systems, such as fluidized-beds, and on i gasifiers that can convert solid fuels to I gas at or near cogenerat ions ites, it adds. !;_ (cont. on P 2) : Nllllfl I 1 11h11H I llfUlfUUHINIUIIIUHIUIIN ...... /\ ................................. NbNUI 111
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OTA COGEDJlATIOB UPOR.T (cont. from,~ 1) Finally, the report says, "OTA found that most of the technical aspects of interconnection and integration with the grid are relatively well understood, although some electric utilities still have reservations. Rather, the primary issues related to interconnection are the.costs of theequipment and the utilities' legal obligation to interconnect." In general, the report says, the technical potential for cogeneration is very large--perhaps as high as 200 gigawatt& by the year 2000 in the industrial sector alone, with a much lower potential (3 to 5 GW) in the commercial, residential and agricultural sectors. Its market potential, however, is much smaller for two principal reasons: the fact that cogeneration investments will have to compete with conservation in industries and buildings and, in the longer term, with electricity supplied by coal, nuclear, hydro and other forms of alternate fueled generation capacity, and the inability of most technologies--especially smaller scale systems--to use fuels other than oil or natural gas. Industrial Market. On the industrial front, OTA identified pulp and paper, chemicals, the steel industry, petroleum refining an~ ~~od processing as promising candi~ dates for cogeneration. It adds, however, that c... ,rvation opportunities will strongly dampen growth in steam demand in the chem. l industry if it does not cause it to decline. In the steel industry, new cogeneration capacity will not be. added because most new mills will be minim.ills : use electric arcs and have little or no thermal demand. ''However, if the market for the thermal output could be found, an electric arc minim.ill could use the cogenerated electricity and sell the beat/steam," the report said. "Fin21ly, the food processing industry currently has a small amount of cogeneration capacity which could more than double by 1990, 11 the report says. ''Here the primary limit on the cogeneration potential is the low thermal load factor that results from the seasonal nature of the steam demand." Coaaercial Buildjpg. OTA Project Manager Jenifer Robison said that the conclusions on industrial use were principally drawn from the literature. There was, however, no such extensive literature to draw on when it came to commercial buildings, so OTA undertook what is for it a somewhat unusual move: it conducted its own analysis using a dispersed electricity technology assessment model. OTA researchers conclude: "Cogeneration in commercial buildings has a much smaller potential for growth than industrial cogeneration, primarily due to the low thermal load factors in those buildings. Additional constraints on commercial building cogeneration opportunities include the difficulty of handling and storing solid fuels in and around buildings; competition with conservation for energy investment funds, and with coal or other baseload capacity additions for economic electricity generation; and with coal or other baseload capacity additions for economic electricity generation; and the special air quality considerations in urban areas." The disad. (cont. on p. 3) ..,
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OTA COGERERATIOll REPORT (cont. from P 2) vantages presented by the low thermal load factors in commercial buildings can be overcome to some extent by undersizing the cogenerator and operating it at a high capacity factor to meet the baseload thermal needs and using conventional thermal conversion systems to supplement the cogenerator's output. They add that three specific cone lusions can be made from their analysis. "First, given the assumptions, cogenerated electricity cannot compete with central station, coal-fired capacity. Therefore, in commercial buildings, cogeneration will only contribute to peak and intermediate demands an.d will only operate when it can supply such electricity." They note, however, that lower gas prices could greatly increase the opportunity for cogeneration. "In fact, natural gas prices somewhat above current gas prices would allow c0:gener ation to compete with new, baseload, coal-fired central station capacity," the report says. "Alternatively, successful demonstration of gasification technologies that can produce moderately priced (about $5/million Btu) medium-Btu gas from coa 1, biomass 01: solid waste could expand the competitive position of cogenerat ion." Interconnection Findings. The technical issues utilities are concerned about include maintaining power quality, metering power production and consumption and controlling utility system operation. In order to maintain power quality, the report says, grid-connected cogenerators may need capacitors to keep voltage and current in phasde, over/under relays to disconnect the generator if its voltage goes outside a certain range, and a dedicated distribution transformer to isolate voltage flicker problems. "However, the power quality effectsof interconnected cogenerators often are technology-and site-specific, and not all systems will need all of this equipment. In particular, smaller systems (under 20 kW) may have few or no adverse effects on power quality and may require only limited interconnection equipment," the report says. On the issue of system control, the report says, "although very large cogenerators might be dispatched by a central utility control center {and thus require connection via expensive telemetry equipment), most utilities will treat cogenerators as 'negative loads' by subtracting the power produced by the dispersed generators from total system demand, and then dispatching the utility's capacity to meet the reduced demand. Studies of such negative load treatment indicate that it should work well where the total capacity of the cogenerators is limited compared to the overall system capacity." + + + Copies of the report, "Industria 1 and Commercial Cogeneration," are for sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government fr in ting Off ice, Washington, DC 20402. ___..,.--
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Civilian Space Policy and Applications Civilian Space Stations International Cooperation and Competitiveness in Civilian Space Activities
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The Christian Science Monitor BOSTON, MASS. D. 151,825 ~llelk. MAR 21 1983 Landsat sale may boost satellites' usefulness President Reagan H'ants to sell the us earth resources (Landsat) satellites as well as the weather system. The Communications Satellite Corporation (Com.sat) wants to buy them. This is the last of three articles examining the implications of the Landsat sale. By Robert C. Cowen. Natural science editor of The Christian Science Monitor Land~t experts attending a "results" con ference at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Cen ter were ecstatic. Project scientist Vincent Salomonson called it a "minor miracle." The new high-resolution sensors on Landsat 4 had sent back pictures so sharp you could see boats in the lake off Detroit and trace the taxiways at Dulles Airport outside Washing ton, D.C. But for most users of Landsat data, the "minor miracle" is irrelevant. It's not the fact that the radio transmitter serving this instrument has failed, at least temporarily. that disturbs users. They are concerned that its data cannot easily be com pared with earlier Landsat images. More over, foreign users worry that their ground stations can't process the new kind of data. What users want is assurance that the older type of Landsat data, upon which they rely, will continue to be available. W. Murray Strome of the Canada Centre for Remote Sensing made this clear at the Goddard meet ing .. Although he says he, too, admires the performance of the new instrument, he told his fellow experts, "We have to figure out ways to make sure that the satellite ... data continue to be available." He added, "This is a very difficult problem.,.. The Landsat system now owned and oper ated by the US government offers no such as surance. Happily for users, the Landsat 4 sat ellite does have an old-style instrument as well as the new sharper-eyed thematic map per. But there are no follow-up plans. It is this that concerns users, especially o~erseas users. Gordon Law, a space analyst wtth the cong~essional qtfi<;~echnolo!a issessmenJ. notes that the muc a<1mir t emat1c mapper "is a new thing.;, He adds "It will take at least five years of develop: ment to get anything useful. Meanwhile the question is w!'lat will the follow-on be."' For users, he explains, the name of the game is confidence that resource satellite data useful to them will continue to be available. France seems ready to try to inspire such confidence. Its SPOT earth-resources sate! lite system sh~ld be inaugurated next year. It can deliver images as sharp as, or sharper than, the thematic mapper. It can produce 3-D stereo images as well. And SPOT data will be compatible with the old-style Landsat data. Cornsat, in its proposal to take over Landsat, also outlines plans for an ongoing re source satellite operation. It is an operation that, Comsat says, would enable the US to meet the expected French competition. Thus, from a user's point of view Comsat's takeover of Landsat is the best p;os pect that the US will continue to meet Landsat customers' needs. :;J .~
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As the Soviets secure their position in s1Jace development. Space systems have D ,0 vid Linn v become in~r~asingly i~porta~t ". Yl'J for many m1btary operat1~ns:V1tal areas of U.S. dependency on space based assets include: overThe recent scar-caused by the seas communications, navigation, uncontrolled re-entry of Cosmos verification of arms control 1402, a nuclear-powered Soviet agreements, early warning of nureconnaissance satellite, highclear attack, electronic warfare lights a Soviet space program and weather forecasting. How~vwhich is a:nything but out-ofer, the Soviet program is entirely control. In fact, the Kremlin has different. The Soviets, concerned undertaken a massive effort to with putting too many eggs in push ahead of the United States one basket, have built flexibility in a number of critical, areas in into their program. Because of space technology. The level of the future uncertainty over f}xot this effort and breadth of the ic space weaponry and its poten Soviet space program should give tial effects OQ military doctrine, us pause. In 1981, despite severe the Soviets plan for as many domestic economic problems, the scenarios as possible. The Krem Soviet Union devoted about $18 Jin understands that the nature of billion to space. Proportionally, warfare whether economic or this is five times larger than military -is not static. NASA's current budget. In 1960, John F. Kennedy proA~ross the board, the USSR phetically remarked that "space has 1_nvested_ vast sums to develop. is the new ocean and we must an impressive array of ~I_>~ce sail on it." The Soviets were ~eap~ns and tactical capab1h!ies obviously listening; since the mcludmg:_ laser weapons, parttc!e launch of Sputnik 25 years ago, b~all_ls, killer satellltes,. ballis~tc tremendous resources which m1s~1le defense and ant1-satelhte could have been spent on desperdevtces. These costly systems. ately needed social programs hav~ a dual purpose to enable the were instead devoted to largely Soviets to threaten p.s. syste_ms military space efforts. The Sovi and to protect their emergmg ets took another strategic lesson, commercial space assets. from the brillant American naval The importance of the Soviet strategist, Adm. Thayer Mahan, projection of power in space bewho 60 years earlier concluded. comes more obvious with the that control of the world's oceans. Kremlin's pronouncements that ultimately determines the mili-its airspace reaches to the heav tary. balance on land. The Soviets ens and is off limits to American long ago concluded that control spacecraft. Currently, there is a of the heavens determines the consensus that satellites have the military balance on Earth. right of free passage in space The utilization of space for. without interference, like ships military purposes is not a recent on the ocean. But the Russians may not always accept this America's long-term inter,ests. position. For. 25 years, the Kremlin has Like the space race of the understood the significant eco-1950s, when the Soviets broke nomic and military benefits to be out front; we again lag behind derived from space. the Russians. However, the Most experts agree it is only a stakes have grown enormously. matter of time before the U.S. Co!llpetition for scare~ resources, begins to utilize the commercial strategic locations and foreign potential of space. Although the. markets has always been backed outcome is .not in doubt, there is by military. strength. Therefore, considerable concern the U.S .. why should Soviet motivations may lose its lead in this field. for protecting their trade routes This has raised very real concern and infrastructure in space be that the U.S. space program is in any different? jeopardy. Although Cosmos 1402 may With the continuing squeeze seem .to epitomize a troubled on federal funds due to the adspace program, there can be no ministr(ltion's tax cuts and high doubt this is far from the case. levels of defense spending, the The Soviets have made the necescivilian space program is vulner sary commitments to exploit able. The funding of the fifth space to its limit. Thus far, the shuttle orbiter and of numerous U.S. lacks both this commitment scientific space programs has and a space strategy. been delayed because of these The military nature of the So concerns. However, the failure to viet space program and the comcome to grips with these needs mitment to exploit the commerunderlines the fact that our policial and industrial potential of cymakers and the public are unspace do not bode well for aware of the long-term benefit liJIJt J.rnuih.etttt Jnumnl PROVIOENCE, R. f. D. 80,04-0 SUN. 234,768 MAR 23 1983
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space holds in terms of jobs, productivity and a strengthened international market position. This policy should emphasize for mulating a long-range strategy for commercial space activities, as well as short-term measures Within the international mardesigned to revitalize the U.S. ketplace, the U.S.'s lead is in-space program. creasingly challenged. The Euro-In recent congressional testi peans and the Japanese have mony, Dr. John H. Gibbons, di targeted specific, potentially rector.of the President's.Qffice 2t. profitable ventures for active deTechnolog~ A~ment, identi velopment. Through effective co'fied a num er 01mportant areas ordination of their public and where the U.S. must develop a private sectors, they are begi~strategy. Gibbons said the 1958 ning to supplant the U.S. m National Aeronautics and Space several key areas. This trend will Act should be .reviewed in light only increase if the current lack of technological changes and the of direction and commitment experience in space operations continues in Washington. that the U.S. has acquired since h Explorer I was launched over 20 The real question is: W at can years ago. He concluded that America do to reverse this trend and correct problems caused by a significant new-services and eco-nomic benefits could be derived decade of neglect? Until the from the exploitation of innova~ launch of the space shuttle Co-tions in space technology. lumbia in March, 1981, the U.S. National policymakers need to had not had a man in space since provide the stimulus and guid Skylab, six years before. ance necessary to ensure the full The U.S. government must for-use of the country's resources. mulate coherent space strategy. This includes paying more atten tion to the tangible economic benefits the U.S. can derive from space. The failure of the Soviet recon naissance satellite Cosmos 1402 represents wasted resources and flawed management. But the ab sence of a coordinated U.S. space strategy represents unused re sources and a national leadership which has to date failed to grasp the critical importance of space David W. Lippy is president of The Center for Space Policy Analysis, a Boston-based consult ing firm.
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FORBES NEW YORK, N.Y. E. 0, WEEK 676,500 Viable competition from Europe and bumI bling U.S. policy toward the Third Wor!d are dimming NASAs once bright hopes of JAN 31 1983 keeping the U.S. number one in space. ''We mean business'' By Rosemary Brady and Stephen Kindel QUATllE.. TROIS. Dn,x. UN."The ,_,,_, .. 157foot-tall Ariane rocket, festooned with the decals of 11 European nations, lifts off its launchpad in French Guiana in a cloud of smoke; It's a beautiful takeoff, but 14 minutes into the flight something goes wrong. And 14 minutes into the flight Europe's best tech nological hope plunges quietly into a watery grave. With it, last Septem~er, go two satellites, developed at a cost of $130 million. Finis to Europe's attempts to chal lenge America's hegemony in. outer spacel Don't bet on it. Listen to Rich ard Barnes, NASA's European repre sentative: "I don't know any responsi ble NASA official who doesn't take the Ariane seriously. It is a very credi ble launcher." ~{ \ fi;, .. .l Barnes is not just some government Ariane launcher in French Guiana bureaucrat hyping the news in hopes The right rocket at the right tune. of getting his agency's budget appropriation raised. In space, as in the the U.S. Land8'lt system,. It has al commercial air lanes of the world, the .. ready found favor with many develop U.S. no longer has a virtual monopoly. ing nations, which dislike the Ameri The Ariane, developed by the Europecan policy of selling data on national an Space Agency at a cost of $1 bilnatural resources to any company lion, is well on its way to becoming a paying the processing costs. France's commercial success as well as a tech satellite data will be marketed solely nological success. to subscribing nations. Orders are already in hand worth A consortium formed by British $500 million for launches between Aerospace and the French company now and 1986, and include such cusMatra has begun bidding aggressively tomers as the International Telecomagainst U.S. companies for intema munications Satellite Organization tional satellite contracts, most re (INTELSAT), Western Union, Southcently in Mexico. em Pacific Communications Co. and Ford Aerospace, traditionally a the Arab Satellite Communications prime contractor in building adOrganization {ARABSAT). vanced satellites, is in a subsidiary France's space agency CNES role as subcontractor to Aerospatiale, (Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales) the French aviation giant, in the con has developed a remote sensing satelstruction of the ARABSAT system. lite designed to compete directly with The U.S. is no longer the only game Edited by Stephen Kindel in town. How did the Europeans barge into space? Just as the European air craft manufacturers saw a hole in the market and soared their wide-body Airbus through it in the 1970s, so too has European industry spotted two yawning holes in space, one techno logical and one chauvinistic. Says Michel Bignier, director of the European Space Agency's transporta tion systems, "The first aim of Ariane was European independence." Chauvinism got a helping hand when NASA unwisely raised its charges to the Europeans. Pierre Usunier, director of the space and bal listic systems division of Aerospa tiale, recalls that NASA boosted the estimated launch fee for two experi mental Franco-German satellites by 34% in the mid-1970s. The Europeans grumbled but paid. NASA's highhandedness, though, came at a time when the U.S. space agency was inadvertently opening up a major technological opportunity for the Europeans. That chance was the Space Shuttle. When NASA started work on the shuttle in the early 1970s, it optimistically envisioned that by the early 1980s it would have five reusable orbital vehicles taking off and landing every two weeks. This would mean capacity enough to take care of even the highest growth curve in launches through the rest of the decade. To marshal resources for the shuttle and to create a customer base, NASA decided to phase out its ex pendable Delta and Atlas Centaur rockets, products now directly com petitive with the Ariane. In 1977 the shuttle hit technologi cal snags, and budget cuts slowed its development schedule. This increased demand for rockets, so Ariane, instead of being redundant, was the right rocket at the right time and price. Subsidized financing by the Europe ans made it even more so. Thus NASA was forced to keep shuttle prices low {despite rising costs) to stay competi tive with Ariane and to keep its hopes of maintaining its current U.S. cus tomer base largely intact. While prices for a typical 2,400to-2,800-pound sat ellite launch run at $15 million to $17 million for the shuttle now, they will rise to around $2 7 million in 1986. A comparable Ariane launch will cost around $30 million. With both sides now subsidizing the_ir product, says
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Philip Sclu;1eider, Western Union's vice president in charge of satellites, "The two launchers come very close to each other." Most satellite opera tors approve of European competi tion, he adds, because it forces NASA to keep its prices low. Says Schneider: "We expect the terms to get better and better." How successful has NASA been in countering the European competi tion? "Ariane taught us not to wait for the customers to come to us," declares Chester Lee, director of NASA's cus tomer relations department. Instead, NASA has jolted into action and signed contracts with Indonesia, In dia, Mexico and ARABSA T (also an Ariane customer) for future launches. It has convinced GTE, Western Union and Southern Pacific Co.-Ariane customers, a11.:...to reserve space on future flights. Still, despite what Lee calls a "change in attitude at NASA," senior analyst Gordon Law of the .Congres-sig~ff RUiJH!lX~~ ment comp ams a o lttffl~y and lack of coordination in U.S. space policy. Law blames hard-line Ameri can policy positions on controversial debates about the satellite business in the U.N., at the International Tele communications Union and at the ITU's World Administrative Radio Conference (WARC) in 1979 and sub sequent regional conferences (see diagram above). "The Europeans get what they want by taking a softly-softly approach and talking one-on-one with countries," Law explains, "but the U.S. comes into meetings poorly pre pared and then bellicosely stands by principles ignored by much of the rest of the world." That, he adds, is no way to put money in the bank, especially when potential customers have an al ternative supplier willing to do busi ness on any terms. Particularly irksome to other coun tries has been the U.S. position on the allocation of orbital launch slots in geosynchronous space-that band 22,300 miles above the earth where a satellite's forward speed perfectly matches the orbital rotation speed of the earth, so that the satellite appears to hover over a fixed location. Since the start of the space age, the ITU has allocated these orbital slots on a first come, first-served basis. When the U.S. was the only nation orbiting sat ellites, such a policy was fine. But now that developing nations want to orbit their own satellites, the first come, first-served policy has given way to an international consensus that geosynchronous space is a limited resource that ought to be shared among all of the world's nations. As the U.S. has resisted demands by the Third World for reserved orbital slots in its sector of space, Europe and Afri. ca have settled differences in their portion of geosynchronous space. Lat in American nations, unable to re solve their differences with the U.S., have taken the dubious legal tack of declaring geosynchronous space _to be part of their territorial airspace. Why should the Europeans help out cash-strapped LDCs? Avarice. Europe can offer to launch satellites for devel oping countries in return for the own ership or lease rights to several transponders-and make big money in the process. Consider the numbers: A sat ellite can carry from 6 to 36 transpon ders. Their sale can yield anywhere from $72 million to $432 million !the current asking price for transponders is around $12 million). But the cost of building and launching a satellite comes to only about $150 million. ~urope should ,,b~ able to pay generously for, say, a Congolese satellite and still make huge profits for itself. Who will win in the end? Until 1985 or 1986, both shuttle and Ariane are fully booked. But after that, too many rockets will be chasing too few satellites. That's when shrewd mar keting and the willingness to do busi ness on your customers' terms will pay off. The Europeans don't write off NASA at this stage. They know, only too well, that tough international marketing is something of an Ameri can specialty. But British Aerospace's Peter Hickman throws down the gauntlet: "One way or another, Eu rope will have its market share." ..
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SPACE WOR!.D AMHERST, VJiS. 10 Tl. A '!R. ~::.coo ..I AN 1 ~) 83 U.S. Space Science-Growing Weak at 25 By Dave Dooling (.,::l9?f A quarter-century after the United States .r\Jaunched itself into the Space Age, its space science program appears to be headed for the minimal existenceit had before Sputnik 1. Future flight programs are continually deferred, existing missions. are threatened with prematureshutdown, and available data is given insufficient analysis. New ways of budgeting and managing must be found if the United States is to continue having a viable space science program, the Co11gressional :Qj(jq=; of TechnoloMx Asss@iQJi~has concluded l in a recen y-Issue repo .. Not only have the numbers of mis sions decreased, but there is insufficient funding for important interim activities such as data analysis," it states in Space Science Research in the United States. "Thus, there is an uncertain future, not only for planetary science, but for several subdisciplines which fall under the rubric of physics and astronomy." The OTA report, dated September, is a technical memorandum that does not include the views of those opposed to or uninterested in space science. Its findings represent views expressed in a workshop held on May 5, 1982. plus research by the OT A staff and comments from congressmen, space scientists, and federal agencies. Although the National Aeronautics and Space Administrations budget has increased in the last few years. the space science share has been declining. Additionally, many members 'of the sp~ce science community outside NASA have often claimed that the agency is more interested in large. manned projects than in true space research. But the OT A report notes that large space science projects, such as the Viking Mars landers and the Voyager Jupiter/Saturn probes, also tend to draw money away from the smaller space science efforts. The current NASA space science budget is $682 million. compared to $376 million in fiscal 1964. But, money 13 years ago went a lot farther than it does today. With adjustments for inflation, the fiscal '64 space science budget was almost $}.5 billion in 1983 dollars. In fiscal '74, it was almost $J .2 billion. So, the current space science budget has less than half the spending power of almost 20 years ago. In addition, much of the budget is going to two major projects, Space Telescope and the Galileo mission to Jupiter._ One result is fewer satellites are launched each year. In the 1960s there was a spate of Explorers. Orbiting Astronomical, Solar, and Geophysical Observatories, and at least one planetary encounter a year. That rate is greatly reduced now with theOAO,_ : OGO, and OSO programs cancelled, and Explorer running at half throttle. In part, the problem is caused by successes in space science which require more sophisticated instrumentation to answer the tougher questions raised by each new batch of data. In particular, planetary science has ridden a roller coaster, going from $820 million in fiscal '64, Down to $279 million in 1969, the year that man landed on the moon, then to a peak of $905 million in fiscal '74 (for Viking), then down to today's low of $155 milion (all in 1983 dollars). Planetary scientists like to blame NASA's large manned space projects for their woes. For now, they look forward only to Galileo and possible Voyager 2 flybys of Uranus and Neptune; a revised planetary program still is taking shape. "Recent budget cuts have now called into question the continuation, survival, and future viability of the U.S. planetary science program,"' OTA noted. "In the view of the planetary scientists, the pro gram is in danger of collapse. If the present trend in funding were to continue, the planetary science program would be extinct by the end of the decade." While the planetary program is the most serious bind, it is not alone, and the space science community as a whole is shrinking. Cancellation or indefinite post ponement of several missions in recent years "suggest to many young scientists, engineers, and technicians that the future of U.S. space science programs is now sufficiently uncertain that they should direct their careers elsewhere." And contractors may get out of the bus iness, too. "Increasingly, universities and industry are assessing the opportunities to be so minimal that they will no longer pursue them; as a result, experienced scientists are leaving these fields, and students and new researchers are not entering them," the report said. Among the ways to improve the fund ing problem, OT A suggested that NASA "emphasized the development of disci plines and continuity of operations ratl)er thlm to emphasize new starts." .. A ~ew start" is NASA parlance for b4dget authority to start a new flight pro ject. It "tends to emphasize the space spectaculars and to distort priorities in space science ... Instead, small-to medium-size missions should be part of continuing programs, and new starts requested only for major efforts like Space Telescope, OTA suggested. The Explorer satellite program uses this scheme, although it is suffering from sharply reduced funding as a result of inflation (from $6 t. 7 million in 1964 to $34.3 million in 1983, all in 1983 dollars). The other funding suggestion was to revive small-scale missions patterned after the U.S. Air Force's Space Test Program, or STP, which develops experiments mostly for piggybacking on other satellites. Advantages are minimal documenta lion and review, low-cost, willingness to stand by decisions and to accept a high risk of failure, and the possibility of short turnaround. Disadvantages are that mis sions tend to have narrow orientation, inadequate postflight support, uncertain launch time, and a higher failure rate than NASA has. Problems do not end at launch. though. A serious problem studied by the General Accounting Office and the National Science Foundation (NSF) is poor alloca tion of money for data analysis after launch because NASA tends to concen trate on new hardware. "There is, however, more science to be gained by allocating a small additional percentage of the total cost of the mission to further data analysis." This can be important to university space research groups where postmission analysis "is the lifeblood." Instead, such work on data from Mars, the moon, and subdisciplines such as X
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ray astrophysics "is funded below the level where the activity can remain viable." Greater responsibility on the part of the scientists is being advocated in many areas. The Space Telescope Science Institute, patterned after ground-based observatories, is the largest such undertaking by NASA and the science community. "Another more radical suggestion has been to establish a separate agency, with a structure parallel to the NSF, whose responsibility would be to support large, more costly scientific enterprises such as space science research and high-energy physics." However, that agency would also be a target for budget cuts and would destroy the balance between small and large science projects. Copies of the 50.page report. OT A-TM STI I 9, are available from OT A. Congress of the United States. Washington. DC 20510.
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INTERNATIONAL SPACE REPORT TELCOM HIGHLIGHTS MIDLAND PARK, NJ WEEKLY t$;fL! MAR 2 1983 Chairman Don Fugua CD-Florida) of the House Committee on Science and Technology has released a prepublication draft of an Of~ce of Technolo'y Assessment {OT A) report on UNISPACE 1982, the United Nations Con erence on tAeeaceiul Uses of Outer Space, and on how that conference affected United States interests in space. "Space is inherently international, and many _countries have joined the United States and the Soviet Union in space", said Fuqua. "Many other countries use space technologies for communications, for mapping, and for mineral explor~tion", he continued. UNISPACE 1.982 offered a valuable forum for the United States to advance its interests and ;:,ositions with regard to the pea,ceful use of outer space. The Office of Technology Assessment report, however, finds that the United States attended the conference with a defensive attitude. This report describes a missed opportunity for the United States to show how our pro-grams operate II for the benefit of all mankind11, as legislated in the 1958 Space Act. The report cites three principal difficulties which kept the U.S. from taking maximum advantage of its excellent record of achievement and international cooperation in space. These are: -the absence of a long-term U.S. space policy; -the lack of coordination among U.S. agencies; and Q -the lack of adequate U.S. preparation for UNI SPACE 1982. (Continued on Page 12.) In addition, private sector delegates and advisors could have been better used at the. Conference. OTA warned that "to use the opportunities inherent in international conferences more effectively will require a change in U.S. attitude toward them. Specifically, it will require better preparation, especially for private sector delegates and advisors, and an emphasis on long-term planning". A 430-paragraph report which summarizes the state of space science and technology and identifies the principal needs of the developing countries for space technology was issued at the conclusion of the meeting. OT A noted important issues were left to be resolved at a later date at the U.N. Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space or the U.N. General Assembly. These issues include: -Militarization of Outer Space: This was the most contentious issue raised at UNI SPACE 1982. According to OT A, 11 UN I SPACE 1982 demonstrated that the United States has yet to develop an effective long-term strategy for responding to international concern about the Q
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Miscellaneous
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FROM THE PRESS OFFICE tiU:S, UN, MASS. Bi-M~:
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gun its own now-troubled electronic mail service. Individual reports aside, some critics charge that OTA studies usually take much too long-an average of 16 to 20 months, and up to two years in some cases. OTA counters that the agency cannot do a comprehensive job in a hurry, and that the Congressional Research Service of the Library of Con gress provides legislators with rapid access to information on file. Even so, when he took over the directorship in 1979, Gibbons began releasing infor mation while reports were being written instead of waiting until comple tion. Moreover, OTA staff members testify at Congressiona1 hearings al most weekly. OTA is sometimes criticized for doing its job-which is to inform, not advo-How OTA works cate. In the MX debate, "many Congressmen complained that we didn't tell them what to do," Gibbons recalls. OTA does just that, however, in a recent study on management of high level nuclear wastes: "We produced a road map-with six steps that must be followed to achieve the agreed-upon goals-instead of just discussing the alternatives," says Gibbons. Unlike most government reports, OTA's are clearly written and easy to understand-especially laudable con sidering the complexity of the subjects. Most OTA reports contain a summary and even a summary of the summary, making them useful to readers of vary ing interest levels. OTA is now trying to complement its traditional strength in energy and health matters with improvements in The Office of Technology Assessment is composed of several grcups: a bipartisan board of six Senators and six Representatives; an Advisory Council of 10 experts in science and technology; and an in-house profes sional staff of 80-90, two-thirds with backgrounds in the natural sciences, one-third in social or political science. Requests for OTA assessments usu ally come from Congressional committees, but the director or the board may also suggest studies. When preparing a report, OTA uses a 12to 20-member volunteer advi sory panel representing academia, industry, labor, and public-interest groups. These panel members meet with OTA staff at the beginning, mid dle, and end of a project to offer suggestions on how to make the study fair and complete. The volunteers wield more than a rubber stamp; for example, OTA doubled the budget and scope of its recent study on high level nuclear wastes at the advisory panel's insistence, says OTA director John Gibbons. OTA discharges the volunteers after only one project in an attempt to bring in fresh ideas and opinions. Before a report is issued, it must be approved by the OTA director and by a majority of the Congressional board. The report then is passed on to the Congressional committee that requested the study, and summaries are sent to to all members of Congress and released to the public. OTA deliv ered 20 reports to Congress in fiscal 1982. OTA enjoys an excellent reputation in Congress; indeed, despite the Reagan budget ax, OTA's funding has remained level in real dollars-just over $12 million in fiscal 1983. Recently published OTA reports cover air-traffic control systems, tech nology and handicapped people, civilian space policy, technology and oceanography, and societal impacts of national information systems. In progress are studies on the medical devices industry, the future of conven tional nuclear power, materials technologies to reduce U.S. vulnerability to import cut-offs, civilian space stations, and the effects of information tech nology on financial services systems. For information on the availability of OTA reports, call (202) 224-8996, or write to OTA, U.S. Congress, Washington, DC 20510. its studies of defense issues, which have until now received minimal at tention. The agency also wants to in clude more demographic information in its reports, to better reflect the im pact of technology on people's jobs. In the end, however, politicians will be politicians. Thus, unless Congress bases its decisions more on OTA's infor mation than on political expediency, the agency's work may be fruitless, despite its lofty goals. Says Gibbons: "There will always be a line where the analysis is cast aside and the politics begins."O
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DATE TIME STATION LOCATION PROGRAM T.V. CLIPS December 15, 1982 ACCOUNT NUMBER 6297 y 9:00-10:00 AM WXYZ-TV(ABC) Chanle Seven Detroit Big City News Morning Report Tony Lee reporting: When we think of the high cost of influenza or the flu, we think in terms of illness, suffering, or loss of life. But the flu is costly in other ways, too. Dan Jackson has this report in part two of our series on the flu. Dan Jackson reporting: Influenza can be a killer. It took the lives of more than a half million people in the past twenty years. It can also be a thief. In one seven-year period, it took one billion dollars from Americans in medical care costs, according to a study by the Office of Technology Asses~ment. * (Dan Jackson continues to discuss problems that come with the flu.) Video cassettes are available in any format from our affilillte VIDEO MONITORING SERVICES Of AMERICA, INC, tor a period of four week5 irom a,r date Can 212-736-001-0
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DIAGNOSTIC IMAGING SAN FRANCISCO, CA MONTHLY 26,76~L_ JAN 1983 98th Congress to face 'guns vs. canes' budget battles \.1 i E VEN THOUGH some of the players are new, the 98th -Congress is expected to deliver a season of reruns when it comes to health care proposals. The budget will be the Karen A. Hunt scene for most of the action, with the battle shaping up around "guns vs. canes." The Administration, however, may back down on some of its pro jected Medicare and Medicaid cuts in light of Democratic gains in the House and state governments. Prospective reimbursement is being touted by the Administration as a money saving device, but Hill veterans don't expect it to get far. The scheme is too radical, they say, and Congress won't buy it, even though the 1982 tax bill called tor its consideration. Adding fuel to the argument against adoption of a prospective sys tem is the conclusion of health experts in New Jersey-the only state where the Administration's "diagnostic related group" scheme is in operationthat the system "offers more ques tions than answers about its efficacy." Just how expensive the system is to run hasn't been analyzed as yet and hospitals complain that the paperwork is staggering. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Robert Dole (R-KS) has promised hearings for a review of Part B Medi care reimbursement. Some Hill watchers say it is unlikely that physicians will see any major changes in these policies. "The problem with the idea of mandatory assignment," said one Finance Committee staffer, "is that it could turn doctors away from Medi care and leave the elderly with no one willing to take care of them." He noted further that physician fees "aren't the real problem" in the cost spiral, be cause they've been kept relatively low. Still, staffers on the House side note that "there isn't much left to cut except doctors' fees and patient bene fits." As a Ways and Means staffer pointed out, the Administration is ex pected to ask for double the cuts in Medicare that it did in 1982. "If that's the case, doctors' fees are bound to be hit. she predicted. The catastrophic insurance debate likely will be revived. The Administration is expected to propose Medicare patients be given catastrophic insur ance in return for paying substantially more for their first 60 days of hospital care. As of the first of this month, a patient must pay the first $340 of his or her bill and the government pays the rest until day 60, when the patient is responsible for a quarter of the bill. The proposal calls for the patient to pay the $340 plus between 6% and 10% of the cost of each additional day. The catastrophic coverage would kick in after the patient had paid in the range of $2500 to $3000 out-of-pock et At present, about a quarter of the Medicare population enters a hospital each year. But only a small percentage stay longer than 60 days. Rep. Edward Madigan (R-IL), rank ing Republican on the House Com merce Health Subcommittee, predicts that a competition bill is likely to pass in the 98th Congress. New studies, however, confirm that people would have second thoughts about seeing a doctor under such a scheme, since they would be picking up a greater share of the tab. M EDICAL technology would be adversely affected by two leading proposals to increase co,mpetition, a new study by the~ 9J r~c~gl9'~\~<1LA*5SSment (oTA) foun .-0usenergy ahd Commerce Chairman John Dingle (O-MI) requested the report. The findings, he said, "support my concerns that increased co-insurance will discourage needed services." The report states that "higher levels of cost sharing by patients can be ex pected to lead to use of fewer technol ogies, especially in situations involving laboratory tests and drugs, illnesses of potentially minor nature and certain groups of surgery." The study concludes that "patterns of technology use in hospitals would respond to cost-sharing incentives more slowly than those in physicians' practices. Change would occur more gradually in hospitals because more people are involved in the decision making of a large organization. "An existing piece of equipment might be used until its capacity was approached, when more discussion about its appropriate use and price would surround the decision to replace it or buy an additional unit" The OTA also notes that "another factor restricting a hospital's ability to change is the standards of outside review bodies. Certain tests routinely given to hospital patients and some hospital operating practices fall into thi~ category." The Department of Health and Hu-man Services is cracking down on fra.u<:1 with its new computer program called "Project Rainbow." The intent is to nab physicians for double-billing, overbilling or other financially related offenses. Forty-four computers are screening bills to find questionable practices. Health Care Financing Office offi cials report that several million dollars of billing irregularities turned up during the trial screens at regional offices over the past year. Questionable bill ing was heaviest in the Sunbelt. The d~mise of the National Center for Health Care Technology has been decried by its former director Seymour Perry, M.D. In a New England Journal of Medicine article, ferry said that pressure from the American Medical Association and the Health Industry Manufacturer's Association lead to the death blow. "In the long run," he said, "the most important impact for indus try and the AMA of the Center's abol ishment may be the fact that they have lost the opportunity to have a voice in decisions about coverage in the Medicare program through evalua tions provided by the Center." According to Perry, the estimated savings to Medicare from the Center's six recommendations not to cover a new technology or procedure was be tween $100 million and $200 million a year. "The cost to Medicare of the seventh-plasmapheresis for rheuma toid arthritis-could have reached $10 billion annually if coverage had been authorized.'' The AMA argued against the Cen ter on the grounds that it would inter fere with the practice of medicine. But Perry wonders "how an average prac titioner, conscientious and thorough as he or she might be, could be ex pected to determine the safety and ef fectiveness of such complex technologies as positron emission tomography." 0
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JOBBER roPICS L1NCOLNW00D1 ILL. MONTHLY 75,vOO {b/tL E 1_983~ F B :;TuOY ASSESSES OPPOSITION TO PASSIVE RESTRAINTS A paper prepared for the Congrei$_lo_nal Office of Technolooy Assessment concludes that o'ppos1t1on by Ae automobile ,na dustry is the primary reason the federal government has not adopted rules requiring installation of passive restraints ---air bags or automatic safety belts---in passenger cars. The paper, prepared at the University of Michigan's School of Public Health by Kenneth E. Warner, says it is "decidedly not the casethat the public opposes passive restraints," even though intrusion on individual freedom is one of the arguments mounted against them. The automakers' opposition, according to the paper, is based on concern that these restraints would push new car prices higher and adversely affect demand for new cars, and concern about potential liability for these products. The paper's author feels that at le~st some of the a~t~makers' concern is misplaced. He finds that the add1t1onal cost of air bags, for example, would likely be l~rg71~ offset by greater avai labi I ity and lower costs of 1ab1 I tty insurance, since deaths and injuries would decline and so would auto insurance premiums. Noting thatthe cost of air bags has been estimated over a wide range, the paper concludes that it would cost ?ar owners, al I in al I, no more than $250 to $425 per ve~1cle for the basic air bag ~ystem, and annual costs for air bags would range from $50 to $115. But the pape: estimates that the insurance premiums saved by owners of air-bagged cars would have a discountedvalue of $150 per year. If automatic belts were required, the paper estimates a saving of only $35 over the life of the vehicle.
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t!AClffNf;:"ii:<. t'U. TtlE HL::mw r Eradle'Y compromise on extension u. 148,143 SUN. 209;!:>64 of drug patents rejected .. By Michele Fuetsch Stall Writer Lerner, confirmed that the senator acting on behalf of "representative~ Last-minute attempts by New Jer-of several New Jersey pharmaceuti-sey's powerful pharmaceutical incal firms," suggested to Metzendustry to win passage of a bill which baum that the drug bill, known as critics claim would keep drug prices patent term restoration, become an high failed last night when the U.S. amendment to the gasoline tax bill. Senate's self-appointed watchdog re_ But the compromise did not alter fused a compromise offered by Sen. Metzenbaum's long-standing opposiBill Bradley, D-N.J. lion to the bill, which would allow Ohio Democrat Howard M. Met-drug companies an extension of the zenbaum has vowed that he will fili-current 17-year patent on drugs and buster or amend to death the drug medical devices. The compromise company bill or any other so-called would have cut the maximum exten-special-interest legislation that supsion allowed from seven to five porters try to rush through during years. ~he fin~! h~urs of a Senat~ session by Metzenbaum's rejection may be attachmg it to another b1ll. the final nail in the cotlin of a bill Bradley's press secretary, Dick that has been the subject of intensive ented bdore testing begins. lobbying by lhe pharmaceutical industry, which provides some 42.000 jobs and more than a $1 billion in wages in New Jersey. Bills not acted on will die with the end of the lame duck session. Under patent term restoration, whieh is vigorously opposed by con sumer and senior-citizen groups as well as the generic drug industry, drug companies could maintain sales monopolies on drugs for a longer period of time than at present Supporters of the bill believe com panies should be compensated for time lost while drugs undergo Federal Drug Administration testing prior to marketing Drugs arc patOpponents of patent restoration charge that it is designed to keep inexpensive generic substitutes for preseription brand-name drugs off the market, and that senior citizens will suffer if the bill becomes law because they buy more drugs than olhet age groups. the Wall Street investment lirrn of Mahon, l\ugl'nt and Company. The generic drug industry, which bitterly fought the pafont bill, is concentrated in New Jersey and New York, but its representatives say it is young and not as organized~as the Pharmaceutical Manufact'urers' Association. The minor compromise~ offered by the drug manufacturers were .not really compromises at all, claimed William Haddad, head of the Gener ic PharmacPutical Industry Associ ation. c,,,,1-A study by the Con 1n:ssional H~{JGflUW4'A'.rn eSu-111ate<1 that patent restorat1011 might cost the consumers of prescription drugs as much as 140 percent more for medicines. The average cost of g,,nenc drugs is 5:i to 80 percent less than the original brand-name drug, according to a report eompi!Pd from "They would still have adneved everything llwl the drug 1ompanies 1,ra,11<-d," i,,, said l;i,.;t nieht The patent bill passed the Senate on a voice vote last year, but falle\l by five votes in the House in Septem ber when supporters couldn't muster the two-thirds vote required to cir cum vent the Hules Committee there. After the vote, the bill was senl to the Hules Committee, where opponents have kept it buried ever since. No one 'can say the bill is dead until Congress is adjourned, William V. Corr, counsel to the subcommittee on healt Ii and lhe environment. s:ci1d. But after bsl night, Corr s;rnl. chances of the bill coming up again are slim.
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BIOMEDICAL TECHNOLOGY INFORMATION SERVICE BREA. CA MONTHLY 1,500 FEB 11983 &p__ ._. __ ........ __ _... .... _._.._ ....... _,,..,. OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT DOCUMENTS {, :i.q--..j -~-Teahnology TJ:tansfer at the National, Institutes of Hea1,th: A Teahniaal Memorandum: This technical memorandum i~ the result of an Off15e of tGGbDQJQ9,.AiG$WG:Q..,(OTA) examination of current technology transfer and assessmen act1v1t1es of the National Institutes of Health(NIH). It presents general information on biomedical research and development and its relationship to technology transfer, and on the processes of transferring medical technology and of assessing that technology. The authors' concern is that the flow of technologies from research and development, through eYaluation, to their adoption and diffusion in the clinical environment be fast enough to prevent denial of significant benefits to patients, yet be presented with assurance of the safety and appropriate.conditions and use of emerging tech nologies. According to this study, the most critical-problems in developing biomedical technologi~s are: 1) insufficient attention to the development of the basic science base necessary for development of effective technologies; and 2) insuffi cient attention to the careful, scientific evaluation of the potential benefits, risks, and costs of medical technologies. The memorandum, which has neither been reviewed nor approved by the Technology Assessment Board, provides background information on the process of biomedical science and its relation to technology development and transfer, on the Nation's and NIH's investment in biomedical research, and on the organization of NIH. Its discussion of current technology transfer activities of NIH contains detailed .looks at two specific institutions. The report notes that "substantial congres sional concern" has been focused on the research directions of the National Cancer Institute (NCI), as well as on its activities in bringing technologies to medical practice. In its chapter on NCI, OTA reviews the results of cancer research and its benefits to cancer patients, as well as new programs implemented for technology transfer. The second organization given individual attention is the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, which is recognized as "probably the.single most active institute in technology transfer." Order from GPO (see below) 052-003-00869-6 $6.50 HOW TO ORDER U.S. GOVERNMENT DOCUMENTS GPO: Order from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Describe docu ments by title and Serial Number (S/N) or other code number. Enclose check payable to "Superintendent of Documents" in the amount indicated. (Do not order from Quest Publishing Co.) ~TIS: Order from the t:'Jational Technical (nformation Service, U.S. Department of Commerce, 5285 Port Royal Road, Spring field, VA 22161. Describe documents by title and code number(s). Enclose check payable to "National Technical Information Service" in the amount indicated. (Do not order from Quest Publishing Co.) Published by Quest Publishing Co. as Part IV of Biomedical Technology Information Service. Quest Publishing Co., 1351 Titan Way, Brea, California 92621, U.SA. "' -
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'. ']. ) :-, '~ ;,.,"' -------------------------------------.. 1 t___ ___ /1 !!__t:./-y _.[_IJ -Medicine Death of a Gallant Pioneer Barney Clark: 1921-1983 -N o one could doubt the wisdom of the choice. The dentist from Des Moines, Wash., may have been in failing health, but it was clear from the moment he set foot in the University of Utah Medical Center that Barney Clark was a dauntless spirit. "A rugged old Rocky Mountain sagebrush. Tough. Eager for life." That was how Dr. Chase Peterson, a university vice president, described the man who was to make medical history. Those quali ties, together with his obviously urgent need, convinced the university selection committee that Clark should be the world's first human to receive a permanent artificial heart. "He was a man worth waiting for," said Committee Member Peg Miller. Those same traits enabled Clark to endure the arduous operation on Dec. 1 and to struggle for 112 days through the perilous and uncharted territory of life with a plastic heart. Last week the long struggle ended. with Clark's wife Una Loy, DeVries said, "This courageous man's heart was turned off." Clark was known for courage and fortitude throughout his life. Just. twelve when his father died, he sold hot dogs and did odd jobs to help pay the family mortgage in Provo, Utah. Later he put himself through Brigham Young University and the University of Washington dental school. Father of three, the strapping 6-ft. 2-in. Clark prospered in his Seattle practice and, before his heart began to weaken six years ago, honed his golf handicap to six. 'Tve done everything l wanted t0 do in life: he told Peg Miller. "1'ow if l can make a contribution, mv life will count for i something ... If that meant dying on the i operating table. he was prepared. Shortly i before surgery, Clark reached for the i hand of Una Loy, the high school sweeti heart he had married 39 years earlier. and i said, "Honey, in case I don't see you i again, I just want you to know you ve been .1 a darned good wife.,. There were many moments before 1 and during the operation when it looked as though Clark would not see his wife again. He was in the final stages of cardiomyopathy. a progressive deterioration of the heart muscle. Clark's skin appeared blue from lack of oxygen, fluid was col lecting in his vital organs. and his ravaged heart could pump only one liter of blood a minute, about one-seventh the normal rate. When Clark's heart started fluttering abnormally a day before the impian tation was scheduled, DeVries decided the operation could not wait. His patient, he said, "probably would have been dead by midnight." The surgery was fraught with danger. Years of cortisone therapy, DeVries pointed out, had made the fabric of Clark's heart so delicate that it tore "like tissue paper" during the operation. When the team, working to a recoraing of Rav el's Bolero. finally succeeded in replacing the organ with the mechanical device, said DeVries, "it was a spiritual experience for everyone in the room." But the new heart failed to pump properly, and a standby unit had to be substituted. Final ly, after 7 hr., Clark's heart outpl,)t was normal. he had what was described as "the blood pressure of an 18-year-old," and his bluish skin was beginning to blush Beset by kidney failure, chronic respiratory problems, inflammation of the colon and loss of blood pressure, Clark. 62, died quietly. The official cause of death: "cir culatory collapse due to multiorgan system failure." The heart itself was in good working order at his death, having beat steadfastly nearly 13 million times. In the final days, Clark's doctors debated what steps they would take to preserve the pa tient's life: whether, for instance, it would be medically and ethically appropriate to try kidney dialysis on someone so ill. In the end, however, Clark's rapid deterioration obviated such questions. Said Oark's surgeon, William De Vries: "It was essen tially the death of the entire being except for the artificial heart." Shortly after 10 p.m. on Wednesday, having consulted Clari< is visited by Una Loy, his wife of 39 years, two weeks after surgery Said he: "If I can make a contribution. my life will count for something." 62 TIME. APRIL 4.
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--------------------------~-----------------------~---------------------. k. Still. Di:\nes warned. "there: are n, more hurdle~ ahead_ 1ndecd there were. including a 2~':-hr. sode of convuls1ons one week after sur ). gushing nosebleeds a month later : j the failure cif a valve in the lefl half of : heart. which necessitated replace' :nt of the entire section. In all. Clark .s to make three trips back to surgery to rrect various problems. ln addition. he ffered spells of confusion for three :mths after the seizures. During this pe ,d he sometimes imagined that he was II practicing dentistry in Seattle: at 0thtimes he was lucid enough to complain. ,iy mind is shot.'' But Clark improved. the end of February his confusion had sappeared. and he was able to pedal a ationary bicycle for a few minutes at a me. Only his lungs, weakened by years poor circulation, slowed his recovery. Clark was sustained by the work of a :markable team. DeVries. 39, a lean, -ft. 5-in. former high jumper, is refresh-1gly indifferent to his sudden celebrity. ayshe: "You lose credibility you're too well known." A tther of severi. he sleeps only )Ur or five hours a night to 1ake time for his family and he 16-hr. workday he fa. ors. Typically. DeVries was tanding vigil at Clark's side vhen his patient died. ment. all of which are stored cm a can Total weight of the awkward external sys tem: 375 Jbs. The cost of the heart: $9.050. plu$ $7.400 for the drive system. But Clarks equipment was donated by the manufac turer. Kolff Medical. Inc .. and his doctors waived their fees. Had Clark done well enough to leave the hospital. he probably v.ould have spent $2,700 to equip his home with ramps, wall outlets for air and other fittings. Then there was the hospital bill. At the time of Clark's death. it exceeded a whopping $200.000. to be paid by donations and U.M.C. endowment funds. The cost, the 375-lb. encumbrance and the siege of postoperative ailments have all raised doubts about the use of artificial hearts. Said Dr. Michael DeBakey, the noted heart-transplant surgeon from Houston: "To be a success. the heart must restore the individual to normal life. If all Jt does is keep the patient alive, it has not den, occur. the cost!, :!r:ifi.::1al heart i~ sure 10 raise some difncu!t qucsti.:ms. How much is life wonh1 asks Dr. George Lundberg. tdi1or of the Journal of the American A1edical A.uociarion. "'H0w much is one or more days of longer life worth'l ls every life worth the same amount, and if not, why not?" According to a 1982 study published bv the U.S. Office of Technolol!V Asses~~ent. as many as M.Mb ,Xrnencans a 'yea? might qualify for an artificial heart. should it be approved for general use. Clearly. very few individuals could afford the device. The U.S. Government now spends $1.8 billion a year on Medicare as sistance for the 60.000 Americans who re quire kidney dialysis. If Medicare were to be extended to artificial-heart patients. that could mean an added burd.en to tax payers ofas much as $5.5 billion annually. Dr. Willard Gaylin, president of the Hastings Center, an institute just north of New York City for the study of biomedi cal ethics, points out that such patients $HVE-0'5COVER might be a drain on the nation's health-care system throbghout their lives. Says Gaylin: "We Americans like to think of ourselves as having an open-ended attitude toward health care, the more the better, but we've come to the point where we're running out of resources." The equally dedicated in1entor of the device. Dr. fobert Jarvik. 36, was also Jresent. The son of a doctor, Jarvik designed his first medical invention. a surgical ,tapler. while still in high .chool. His interest in the heart was prompted by his father's battle with cardiac disease. A spare-time sculp tor, Jarvik was able to com bine his artistic and medical interests as a design engineer at Utah's anificial-organ program beginning in 1971; he earned his medical degree there in 1976. Inventor Jarvik, above, Surgeon De Vries, below, and the remarkable pump After sustaining life/or 13 million beats, "the heart was turned off." A better course would be to develop ways of preventing such chronic ailments as cardiomyopathy and coro nary artery disease. "If such work is not done,'' wrote Dr. Lewis Thomas, chancellor of the Memorial Sloan-Ketter ing Cancer Center, "we will be stuck forever with this insupportably expensive, ethically puzzling halfway technology." But preventing heart disease, as Thomas readily admits, is a long way off. Says Dr. William The man who brought Jarvik and DeVries together was Dutch-born Surgeon and Medical Engineer Willem Kolff, 72, who calls himself "the oldest artificial or ganist.'' The founder of Utah's anificial organ program got his start in the field by creating the first artificial kidney, a crude dialysis machine he pieced together from cellophane and other simple materials he found in Nazi-occupied Holland in the early 1940s. He designed his first artificial bean in 1957 when he was at the Cleveland Clinic. It sustained a dog for 1 hr. The heart that Barney Clark received thus represented more than a quarter ofa century of research. Like Kolff's orig inal device, it is powered by air, com. pressed by an external electric pump. Two 6-ft.-long air tubes. which emerge from beneath the rib cage, connect the heart to the pump and to emergency tanks of compressed air and other equipTIME.AF'Rll4, 1983 succeeded." DeBakey and fellow Houston Transplant Expert Denton Cooley there fore favor transplants, which now offer re cipients a 70% to 80% chance of surviving a year and a 42% chance of living five years. The best use of the mechanical heart. says Cooley, may be "to sustain a patient until a donor heart can be found." Clark's experience will undoubtedly help doctors build a better heart. "We have learned more in a few months with Clark than in the past nine years with ani mals.'' says Larry Hastings, a U.M.C. heart-pump technician. Jarvik has already designed a portable drive system the size of a camera .. bag that can run the Utah heart for twelve hours. It may be ready by 1985. Researchers at the Cleve land Clinic, as well as Jarvik, are now working on hearts with implantable mo tors. 1n ten years, the only external appa ratus needed by an artificial-heart patient may be a 5-lb. battery pack Yet even if these technological wonFriedewald, associate director of the Na tional Heart, Lung and Blood Institute: "Of course, our goal is prevention, to have no Barney Clarks in the future, but right now that's pipe-dreaming." Though the Utah team is looking for a second artificial-heart candidate, it plans to proceed slowly. "The artificial heart today isat the stage that the transplants were when those operations began 16 years ago," _says Stanford Cardiologist Philip Oyer. "Then no one knew how a patient would do, and there was a lot of skepti cism." An encouraging note is that the world's first mechanical-heart recipient survived nearly six times as long as the first heart-transplant patient, who lived only J 9 days. And Clark, for .all his suffering, said he would not hesitate to recommend the procedure to others "if the alternative is that they will die.'' Said the gallant pio neer: "It is worth it.'' -ByC/audla Wallis. Reported by Cheryl Crooks/Salt Lake City and Joseph J. Kane/Los Angeles 63 -! i
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,, MEDICAL WOnLD Nf.WS NEW YORK, M.Y. 26 T!. A YR. 117,GOO ff/~' ,I AN l O lo ''..'..l ~V,'J'li~r, 'V'~", '1' _,. SALT iJ{KE' c,W~~~ie wlrld was rooting for Barney Clark, hop ing the "permanent" polyurethane heart substituted for his disease ruined natural one at the Universi ty of Utah here would prove it could provide a real new lease on life. But, surprisingly quickly, crit ics we.re calling the historic im plant premature-and questioning whether such devices should be developed at all. The first challenge came in a let.ter Dr. Denton Cooley fired off to American Medical News before the long-awaited Utah experiment. By a quirk of timing, it appeared in print just after retired dentist Clark got his implant. The Houston heart surgeon contended that Utah's air-driven Jarvik-7 heart isn't "acceptable for long-term im plantation in a human being." In the letter and at a subsequent press conference, he argued that such devices should be used only to boi:.: row time for a transplant. Dr. Cooley, who used the trans plant rationale himself in justify ing the only reported previous clin ical implantations of air-driven hearts, noted the pneumatic de vices have "an impact and recoil that is most disturbing" to pa tients. "The concept of prolonging death rather than life echoes in my mind," sai.d Dr. Cooley, conceding that he himself has gained 'a repu tation for being overly aggressive. After the patient's stormy first fortnight, the New York Times re echoed that gloomy echoing in an editorial headed "Prolonging Death Is No Triumph." Noting that Jarvik-7's left ventricle had to be replaced twice-when it didn't work during implantation and later when it developed a mechanical case of mitral regurgitation-it suggested that "even more" animal testing should have been required "before using a patient as a guinea pig." And since researchers are working on almost fully implant able electrical devices, "why not wait for them?" "What we need more than an artificial heart is the Second Com ing of Hippocrates, with a renais sance of the scientific spirit and rigorous inquiry into the real benefits of medical practices," com mented Seattle cardiologist Thom as A. Preston. "This is a classic case of halfway technology. It's not even a good palliative solution to
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heart disease, and it's being done at the expense of basic research into causes and prevention. "I also think the ethics are wrong," the University of Wash ington professor of medicine declared. "We're putting money into noncurative experiments and not taking care of people we can cure. With Medicaid cutbacks, I know people who can't afford valve replacement-an established use of technology." Another nay-sayer is Brooklyn cardiologist Monte Malach, presi dent of the American Society of Internal Medicine. "We're so cau tious with potentially life-saving drugs, I don't understand how the FDA could approve this experi ment," he says. "And like treat ment of end-stage renal disease, this development could become a fantastic economic burden." Are such efforts reasonable despite the costs? "Absolutely," says Dr. Cooley. "We should focus on the potential good and not j.ust on the money." Many experts support the Utah effort, which was inspired by Dr. Willem Kolff, director of the uni versity's institute for biomedical engineering and inventor of the artificial kidney. Just a quarter century ago, Dr. Kolff implanted the first artificial heart in a dog. Mustering wisdom. Supporters include Dr. Mary Jane Jesse, presi dent of the American Heart Asso ciatjon. "After a certain point, the only way to learn what the bugs are is to try a human implant," says the University of Miami pro fessor of medicine. "Even though we can't answer all the ethical and economic questions now, I think we should continue exploring an artifi cial heart with as much wisdom as we can muster." "I don't think we should restrict the choice of future generations," adds Dr. Suzanne B. Knoebel, pres ident of the American College of Cardiology and Krannert professor of medicine at Indiana University. She def ends the trial as "logical and vital." Houston's Dr. Michael DeBakey, a longtime champion of mechanical hearts, once again differs with Dr. Cooley. "I admire what the Utah team has done. You can do all the animal experiments in the world, but humans react differently," he says. "I know you have to take that big step." Two researchers-the Cleveland Clinic's Dr. Yukihiko Nose and Pennsylvania State University's Dr. William Pierce in Hersheysay they won't attempt to replace a human_ heart until they hav~ completely implantable electrical devices ready for clinical trials. That will be about 10 years from now. But they're picking no quarrels with Dr. Kolff's team. "The philosophical aspects of mechanical hearts have been ar gued to the point of agony year after year at the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute," says surgeon John C. Norman, who worked with Dr. Cooley until recently. Now at the Washington (D.C.) Cardiovascular Institute, he thinks the FDA's approval of Utah's prpposal has broken the ice. (Dr. cooley didn't seek approval for .his two emergency implants.) But clinical proposals must pass a "brutal" examination, adds Dr. Norman, who helped FDA review the Utah criteria. 'Total revelation.' New York lawyer Morris Abram, chairman of the President's ethics commission that recently issued a report on informed consent, calls the proce dures followed in the Clark case "a perfect example of what we recom mended. The patient was fully able to comprehend and give autono mous consent. And there seemed to be total revelation by the medical
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.,. __ ARTIFICIAL HEART conttnUed team of what it planned to do and director of the Congressi?.nal_Qf.'. the possible risks and effects." fice of Technology Asses!jment. The 11-page special consent form "The artificial heart is clearly signed twice by Dr. Clark-with 24 going to get to the point where it's hours for further thought in 1 a reasonable therapeutic proce bet"1een -emphasized what I dure," he says. Then it will land in couldn't be guaranteed or prom; 1 he bureaucratic tangle where ised. It stressed that he could heart transplantation is now-expect considerable pain and disbeing submitted to an extensive comfort and that his life might be efficacy study by the Health Care shortened instead of e:xi:ended. And Financing Administration. among the risks it itemized were "Frankly, the HCFA, study is a three that have already come true: delaying tactic," explains Dr. Banadditional operations, air leaks in ta. "Once it's completed in three the chest, and mechanical failure. years, HCF A will have no choice Barney has the key. The form but to start paying for the operagave Dr. Clark an escape clause, tion. It would take an act of Conthough. It left him free to with-gress to deny payment." draw from the experiment at an\" Just how gigantic the bill might time-with the recognition th~t be was estimated last spring in an doing so after the device was in OTA cost-effectiveness analysis. place could result in death. The air Dr. John P. Bunker, a Stanford compressor running the heart University professor of anesthesio-through six-foot hoses can be logy, and his economist co-author turned off with a locked switch figured that as many as 66,000-"and the key is available to the but more likely 33,000-artificial patient," explained Dr. Robert Jarheart candidates a );ear would cost vik, the de,ice's developer. But how the government between $1 billion the option could be exercised if Dr. and $3 billion annually. Since the Clark became irreversibly braindevice has been developed with injured wasn't spelled oQt. over $160 million in federal funds, As for economics, "the situati(m the government would ha\e to obdously presents a d{Jemma," ensure its equitable distribution, says Dr. Da,id Banta, assistant the study concludes. Presidential ethicist Abrams (left) hailed a 'perfect example' of good informed consent. But the eth!c:s of noncurative experiments' worry cost-conscious Dr. Preston (right J. 14 Utah puts a $16,500 price tag on Jarvik-7. For the first of seven clinical trials approved by the FDA, the university decided not to seek federal funds. Dr. Clark's implant and replacements were donated by a manufacturing com pany set up by Dr. Kolff. Profes sional services were also donated. That leaves a hefty hospital bill including over three times the usu al lab tests done for ICU patientsto be picked up by insurance and contributions to the university. Be fore a second patient gets an implant, the Utah surgeons led by Dr. William DeVries have to submit results of the first case to the institutional review board and again get its permission. Just in time. A brisk retort to charges the trial was premature came from university health sciences vice president Chase N. Peterson. "You'd better ask Dr. Clark. He decided that for his case, it was just in time," said internist Peterson, a Mormon-as are Drs. Clark and De Vries. The patient's Seattle cardiolo~ gist, Dr. Terrence Block, agrees. "For a long while I had two other patients as sick as Dr. Clark. Both are dead now, but he hung on. A week before the implant, which he volunteered for on an earlier trip to Salt Lake City, I told him time was running out. When things went bad after the surgery, I didn't think I'd see him again. But now I'm looking forward to Yisiting him." After battling a seemingly over whelming number of complica tions, Dr. Clark recovered enough to sit in a chair for 30-minute peri ods and make a few jokes. Better than he'd been since weeks before the surgery, he even stood up with support. And his artificially-pro pelled circulation worked so well he didn't even feel dizzy. At least for the moment, talk of prolonging death rather than life seemed cru elly inappropriate. f 1f01CA:... \VORL fl N~\\'$ J, ,,; __ .. ...
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MEDICAL PRODUCTS SALES NORTHFiELD, ILL Motm-1Lr ts,ooo I~ MAR 1983 -I OTA To Issue Status Report On Medical Product Review WASHINGTON -The Office of Technolorr-Assessment (OTX) wih t~s mon! ~efoase a stifus report on a comprehensive review of the medi cal device industry scheduled for completion in the spring of 1984. The J 8-month review begun last October was prompted chiefly by congressional concerns over the effects of regulation on the industry, and a desire to measure the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) compliance with 1976 administrative reforms. According to OT A project director Jane Sisk: "The study has a number of purposes. First, we want to compile more information on the number of firms in the industry, their products and research and development opera tions. We will be looking at the issues in the field by doing about half a dozen case studies for particular de vices. We also will be examining the affects of federal policies on the industry." Specifically, Sisk sai.d staffers at the congressional research agency will look at FDA's adherence to the 1976 Medical Device Amendments, the research funding policies of the National Institutes of Health and the impact of the Health Care Financing Administration's reimbursement poli cies on technology. OTA will also review Veteran Administration procedures for bringing together medical device manufacturers and users. The review is entitled "Federal Policies and the Medical Device Industry." Copies of the status report are available to business and govern ment members through OTA. D
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ONEONTA, N.Y. DAILY STAR D. 18,890 fJ;/tL.. FEB 25 1983 l?arn'lers protest changes soil, water policies lll ALBANY -New York soil conser vation leaders recently met in Washington with Congressional leaders and Peter Myers, chief of the USDA Soil Conservation Service, to discuss changes in policies which may adver selv affect soil and water conserva tio~ programs in New York state. The group visited Senator Alfonse D' Amato, Senator Daniel Moynihan, and Congressman Matthew McHugh to brief them on the concerns for the potential negative impacts these USDA policies may have on New York's agriculture. Arleigh Rice. a dairy farmer from Lawville and president of the New Yor.k Soil Conservation Districts Association. said leaders in New York are concerned that key policy deci sions are being made which unfairly penalize New York and the Northeast region. Under the Resources Conser vation Act of 1977, changes in the USDA conservation program call for activities to be redirected to the geographical areas where the problem, if untreated. would significantly im pair the long-term productive capaci tv of the resource. Rice said "that targeting to these critical areas will leave a base program of only 75 per cent in New York. Coupled with a new formula for allocating funds for cooservation assistance, funding, staffing and assistance to farmers in New York could fall below 60 percent of our 1981 program." The Conservation Districts Associ ation also disagree with the criteria being used for selecting the targeted areas because they are based on gross erosion rates. A recent report to Congress by the con ressional Of fict> of Technolo v Assessmen o mir 01 oss rates are not e same as productivity rates, ... some farms with low erosion and thin soil may suffer more productivity loss than farms with high erosion but deeper soil." The report concludes it is likely the magnitude. of the adverse effect of /'\ erosion is underestimated for some important U.S. cropland areas where the soil is thinner. New York soils have shallower rooting zones than those in other agricultural re gions of the country. According to Rice, "New York soils. particularly those with less than 25 inches of rooting zone, are considered fragile in terms of their ability to remain productive even under moderate rates of soil loss. New York's agricultural productivity is threatened by erosion rates that are much less than those in deeper soil regions.'' This conclusion is confirmed by a new Soil Loss Impact Model (SLIM) which has been developed to assess the effects of soil erosion on cropland in New York. J. Roger Barber, Commissioner of the New York State Department of Agriculture and Markets. raised the question whether any region of the U.S. can be short-changed on conser vation priorities. He told Myers that agriculture was the largest business in New York State and that the State's strong agricultural industry. combined with its natural resources. has the potential to efficiently pro duce quality agricultural products for the large population centers of the Eastern U.S. The Association is also concerned with the narrow definition of water conservation which is limited to irri gation and excludes drainage in the Soil Conservation Service program. Chairman of the Onondaga County Soil and Water Conservation District, Albert Sweetland of Fabius, said, As a dairy farmer. I am concerned with the SCS policy that limits water conservation to irrigation. Our major problems in the.Northeast are to get rid of the excess soil water and the lack of adequate outlets for drainage systems." USDA puts a low priority on drainage because it is considered a production practice. Sweetland said, "I fail to see how irrigation that allows farmers to get six to seven cuttings in the West is any less a production practice than removing excess water from my cropland so I can get alfalfa established. There is a double standard in the system that supports irrigation but penalizes drainage. They are both production practices and both should have equal priority." Another topic discussed with Mr. Myers \vas the Soil Conservation Ser vice's plan not to continue the posi tion of soil scientist at the federal Nu trition Laboratory at Cornell University. Dr. William Allaway re viewed the importance of the work being done on soil-plant nutrition problems throughout the U.S. by this soil scientist and the group urged the continuance of this position at the Nutritional Laboratory.
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THE SUN BALTIMORE, MD. (MORNING) 117,190 '"" '"~ MAR 11 1983 Derell ct on Pest1c1des,___ EOfTOHfJl.fj ,~9~, O~r the years of chemical pesticide use in the U.S. since World War II, pests have developed enough resistance SQ that they now destroy as large a percentage of crops as in the days before the chemicals were used. In other words, the more pesticides used, the more are needed and the more they cost, financially and ecologically. Fertilizers are an ever-costlier chemical habit, too. Farmers need to kick their chemical addictions, or at least reduce them to a manageable minimum. The series of articles on pesticides in The Sun which ends today documents the claims above. It also documents the extent to which the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the Food and Drug Administration, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Maryland State Agricultural Extension Service and virtually every other state and federal agency involved with the pesticide problem has been derelict in protecting workers, consumers and the nation's agricultural bounty. As is the case_ with so many environmental issues, a situation al ready bad when President Reagan assumed office has gotten worse under his administration. But now that he will appoint a new Environmental Protection Agency administrator, he has an oppor tunity to get a handle on pesticide problems. Among them: Citrus and grain handlers breathe cancer-causing ethylene dibromide, a preservative. Poor people who work in Louisiana's sugar cane fields are exposed to dioxin, probably the deadliest poison known to man. Workers and their families suffer severe illnesses, but enforcement agencies excuse unconscionable inaction on the grounds that absolute proof of chemical guilt does not exist. The worst part is that harmless substi tutes for the poisons could have been developed had responsible agencies forced development. There are bright spots. Texas A&M University researchers have worked with Texas cotton farm ers to reduce pesticide use to a tenth of previous levels and at a savings of as much as $100 an acre. Impetus is building, though slowly, for Inte grated Pest Management (1PM), under which many techniques besides chemicals are used to control pests. Organic farming, once a joke, is no longer. Many reputable scientists see it as playing a major role in the nation's agricultural salvation. The ~2QWi9f Of fjs@ g( Imrh.Qaw~ Assess-am warns that t e movement to less ust&rtgrt cultural chemicals is much too slow. Scientists in creasingly understand that chemical farming goes hand in hand with other problems: soil erosion, pollution, ever-larger farms and consequent de struction of farm communities, rural unemploy ment, waste of scarce water and energy shortages. Reforms are needed, soon.
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AIR TRANSPORT WORLD WASHINGTON. D.C. Airport access remains major stumbling block to deregulation MONTHLY 43,000 JAN 1983 ., j, .,, ,;-t. I .' -i Task forces, committees, study groups and special interests multiply and grow stronger, but solutions remain elusive. By Joan M. Feldman. When airline deregulators were framing their vision of the future, the essence of their plan was to ensure freedom for carri ers to enter and exit routes and to price services as they wished. Thft is now a fact of life, effective with the Civil Aeronautics Board's loss of authority over domestic tariffs on Jan. 1 (CAB route authority was eliminated last year). As it turns out, however, freedom to com pete is more complex than simply getting CAB out of the route and ratemaking busi ness. In fact, almost from the day the Airline Deregulation Act became law in 1978, the issue of access to airports for either new entrants, or established airlines wanting to enter new markets, has been the focus of a lot of regulatory debate. Now, it is the sub ject of an industry task force, whose report is due in March. Three years ago~ Congressman .. Elliott Levitas (O-Georgia}, a key participant in writing the deregulation bill and current chairman of the House subcommittee on investigations and oversight, became con cerned over the potential for continuing problems with access. The first signal that competition would not be as simple or free wheeling as framers intended was the gov ernment's involvement in several disputes where new entrants were finding it difficult to gain access. The Department of Trans portation had even sought authority to abrogate incumbent airlines' airport leases if room was not made for new services. Demanding taskmaster At the same time, the Senator was dis~ turbed that the access problem was being exacerbated by noise, congestion and space constraints. He decided that the industry's disparate elements should begin talks to find some solutions. Either that, he warned, or the deregulation act's intent will be subverted. "It seems pretty clear to me, he told an airport operators' meeting, "that anyone who has aspirations of taking advantage of the deregulation legislation must have some assurances of access to airports, as well as airway space, along with all of the necessary prerequisites to the successful operation of an airline. With out such assurances, the chances of new entrants to acquire the necessary capital ization will never materialize,. and all of our legislative efforts will have been for naught." Levitas had wanted the task force estab lished two years ago. But the legislative afl1endment failed to pass at that time. A new airport development program did pass in the last Congressional ~ession, with the task force amendment attached to it. "We qon't expect the proposed solutions to be rigid for the entire nation~" Levitas is a demanding taskmaster. He has given. the task force 120 days from its first meeting on Nov. 10, to explore both airspace and ground-based problems-, and come up with recommendations. we don't expect the proposed solutions to be rigid for the entire nation," he suggests, "but rather that they could be tailored to the needs of specific .regions and localities. Among the issues he deems important are: Obligation of an airport to offer access to its facilities to anyone seeking to provide air service, and what laws might be neces sary to enforce any such obligation; the effect of airport-airline contracts on access; consistency of FAA's regulations with the deregulation act, especially that agency's procedures since the PATCO strike and its administration of slot allocation; whether operational restrictions due to noise, safety, air or ground congestion problems are necessary and, if they are, who should impose them; procedures for allocating operations at congested airports, including examination of FAA's post-PATCO slot system and the longtime use of scheduling committees ar four airports approved by government. The new task force set up to study these items has become controversial, even in its formative stages. CAB Chairman Dan McKinnon heads the group. The DOT was charged with naming the members, but even a member of the DOT staff who is on the task force could not explain some of the appointments. For example, there were two commuter airline presidents from the same city-until one a the carriers, Altair Airlines, went bankrupt. There also is a law yer whose interest in aviation could not be identified. He did not attend the first meet ing in any case. Another member is said to have been named because he is a "ship per. But his interests apparently lie in in creasing usage of Oakland International. While most of the aviation trade associa tions are represented on the task force. the general aviation trade group-the Alfcraft Owners and Pilots Association-is not. There are few recommendations made re garding airline access that do not affect general aviation. And, although new en trants' problems are a key reason for the task force, no new entrant was named. One interesting last-minute addition to the task force is William Baxter, assistant attorney general in charge of the Antitrust Division of the Justice Department. ATW was' told that Baxter, who already had a staff member assigned to the task force, volunteered his membership. His interest lies particularly in anticompetitive pro cedures at airports and noise. All of the members have their own axes to grind when it comes to solutions and rec ommendations. The airlines, for example, do not want to see recommendations that would jeopardize their longstanding and cons1aera01e investments in airport space. Airports and airlines would like to recom mend that the federal government become more active in forestalling noise damage suits. The commuter airlines would like recommendations that somehow will help them gain airport access, something that has often been difficult to obtain in the past, yet put them in a favorable position vis-a-vis new entrants. The general aviation repre sentatives do not want recommendations that might recognize a permanent era of limitations and therefore a shifting of their operations and access to loss attractive airports. Levitas goal requires that all of the different groups leave their prejudices behind in order to come up with system solutions. A good example of the conflicts can be
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Airport access continued seen by reading excerpts from working pa pers submitted by CAB and the Air Trans port Association. CAB points out that, now that the government is removed from entry decisions, the task is in the hands of airlines and airports. As a result, terminal alloca tion policies and practices have much more direct and potentially exclusionary effect than they had in the prior era of extensive regulation. Such practices-long-term leases, majority-in-interest clauses (which permit major carriers at an airport to ap prove significant airport decislons), and air Ii n e negotiating committees, for example-"which may have been perfectly legitimate and even necessary in a regu lated environment, may have outlived their usefulness, or may pose risks of antitrust liability that outweigh the benefits of their continued use, CAB warned. On the other hand, in an ATA draft work ing paper, the association insists, "The fears expressed by some as to discrimination, high fees, long-term leases, majority-in-interest provisions, airline ne gotiating committees and scarceness of fa cilities are more imagined than real." ATA, however, is speaking only for its members. Incumbent carriers have been able to work out deals with fellow incumbents-on the "I' 11-scratch-your-back-if-you-scratch mine premise-but that has not always been the case with new entrants, intrastate carriers or commuter airlines. While ATA writes theoretically that "the host airline (for airport space) has the dual incentive of reducing its costs and staving off allega tions of discrimination, that is not always true in practice. United Airlines, which has plenty of space available at its North Termi nal in San Francisco, understandably de clined to allow Pacific Express to lease space for what would have included com petitive service to Los Angeles. Constrained access Even if the task force participants man age to rise above their own interests, the questions posed are so difficult as to defy solution in four months. For instance, it has been decided that the old, protected, regu lated way will not do for solving com petitive, non-technical problems in airline operations. That may mean that airline scheduling committees for slots will not be allowed. If they are not allowed, then there must either be a government solutionwhich Levitas is trying to avoid and doesn't like much if it's anything like FAA's postPATCO slot system-or a matter of "letting the chips fall where they may, as one Ob server suggested. The latter would be fine, were it not for a matter of other thorny access problems. rhese sometimes involve environmental is sues and are more than a matter of en forcing antitrust laws. For example, John Wayne Airport in Orange County, Califor nia, became the focal point of a major battle over the rights of incumbents versus new entrants. The incumbent airlines already were battling residents who demanded noise"reduction even before der~gulation. Sitting in the midst of one of the most af fluent areas in the United States, the air port was the natural target for still more service applications after route liberaliza tion. Government intervention was required before new airlines gained access. A few miles up the San Diego Freeway is Los Angeles International, whose location in the middle of car-crazy California has resulted in horrendous ground congestion on the airport access roads, and a limit on numbers of passengers, to ensure the con tinuing flow of vehicular traffic. This type of constraint, as well as any noise-related lim its on air service, cannot be solved by either enforcement of the antitrust laws or by "letting the chips fall where they may." Both are access problems born of reasons unrelated to free-market decisions, and therefore defy the same solutions as for anticompetitive problems. Constrained access due to airspace lim its also will be studied by the Levitas group, but less extensively than landside access. In the period between Levitas' original pro posal and passage of the authorizing legis lation last year, FAA Administrator J. Lynn Helms decided that he too would convene a task force to study airport capacity and delay. It is said that Helms created his study group, after FAA issued its multibillion-dollar airspace moder11Jzation plan in January 1982 and critics found too little discussion of airports which most peo. pie view as the critical element in aviation's future expansion. Helms named J. Donald Reilly, executive vice president of the Airport Operators Council International, to chair that group. Its report was submitted in September (about the time the Levitas task force was authorized). It came up with more than 100 recommendations, many of them related to near-term, technical ways of increasing airport capacity. Included in the Reilly report to FAA is the highly controversial recommendation that FAA should support the strongest posi tion possible for Federal preemption of the noise problem and its associated financial liability." Airport operators primarily, and airlines to a lesser extent, for years have been urging the federal government to de crease their exposure to the wide range of noise reduction plans proposed by various airports and to the damage suits filed by citizens against aircraft noise. About a year ago, Helms made a speech at Southern Methodist University indi cating some sympathy with the industry position. In fact, Helms indicated FAA would work on legislation incorporating measures that would provide some de fense against such constraints. Helms ap parently has been silenced since then by both the Justice Department and by a deficit-ridden Administration that cannot afford to take on any more financial re sponsibilities. These two task forces are not the end of the "let's-study-the-aviation-system" craze that has taken hold in Washington. The Olfl w,~gjgg ~:i;at the re es o ongressman an Mineta (D-California), chairman of the House aviation subcommittee, is conduct ing a year-long study of its own. OTA in the last year-and-a-half has issued two other reports assessing FAA's airspace and air traffic control plans. This latest project will concentrate on congested airports, though Mineta's interest includes airport capacity until the end of the century. Three major questions will dominate the OTA's study: (1) What technology is avail able to increase airport capacity? (2) What factors influence airport capacity, for ex ample, noise constraints? And, (3) what will be the costs for needed airport capacity, and where will revenues come frol'I)? Maturing industry Unlike other, industry-dominated stud ies, however, the OTA apparently is taking nothing for granted in its assessment of future airport requirements. That means not accepting as gospel FAA's traffic growth forecasts, which OTA feels have been wildly over-optimistic in the past and continue to be surprisingly high, given the fact that U.S. aviation is a maturing and changing industry in a mature economy. One OTA staffer describes FAA projections as being the result of the "booster club mentality, a natural result of FAA's stat utory requirement to promote aviation. The OTA also intends to look at solutions to current and future capacity problems that don't necessarily require major public works projects in all congested areas. It intends to survey the "quality and extent of existing airport facilities, with a view to using them more efficiently. It cites the re distribution of traffic resulting from deregu lation, with new handling centers such as Dayton and Cincinnati, as an example. Says OTA, "Between 1978 and 1980, the number of large hubs (more than 1 % of total passengers) fell from 26 to 24, while the number of medium hubs (handling 0.25 to 0.99%) increased from 33 to 36. In other words, OTA will not accept the sacred cows of aviation. "This may be un thinkable to say, but perhaps Cleveland (airport) shouldn't be expanded but simply upgraded. Maybe there will never be a need for another airport in Boston," suggests the staff man. In other words, airports should be examined in light of the economic and demographic trends, not the local air port authority's desire for a new project. The aviation "system is never quite the same from one day to the next, or one year to another, as the last few years have shown. If deregulation continues, so will its uncertainty and all that it implies for U.S. aviation. Therefore it will take more than some task force studies to find solutions to access and congestion problems that will satisfy both the nation's antitrust laws and aviation's appetite for growth.
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""fr~:I" ~' .. r,:-,: [. .. I'/.~.''~., .. I k 1 ,., ,,::" '' k kl I. \.:' '&' By JOHN MOULTON New,-Sentinel Stoff Writer One of three national workshops to gather information for a report to Congress on the future of conven tional nuclear power will be held in Knoxville next week. Top nuclear-utility executives from throughout the country are expected ~o attend one session of the two-day workshop at 9 a.m. next Thursday at the Hilton Hotel. Other sessions will be held at the Hyatt Regency Wednesday and Thursday. The workshop, sponsored by the me o echnolo Assessment "1-.A)1 1s emg e ere. m conJuncuon with the WA ITec energy conference. OT A was aslced by the House Committee on Science and Technol ogy to examine major technical and institutional changes neeeded to maintain nuclear power as an op tion to future energy needs. OT A is a congressional agency which analyzes major public policy issues related to scientific and technological change. "Pretty nearly everybo:.iy a~rees the way we're doing nucle,,r power now is coming to an end," said Alan Crane, director of the project for OT A. Crane said the workshop will deal with "different ways of manag ing the whole nuclear option. We h:.ive a broken-up w 9 y of handling nuclear power (now)," he said. Other workshops were l:eld in Septemberand December, Crane said. The study is scheduled to be prese>nted to the OT A board in May and given to Congress by next fall. In addition to the utility executives, other workshop participants include nuclear equipment vendors, f'nergy consultants and representa-The Knoxville News-Sentinel KNOXVILLE, TENN. D. 101,628 SUN. 157,625 FEB 17 198_3 ti:ves of groups opposed to nuclear power. TV A General Manager Bill Willis, vice chairman of WAITec this year and chairman of the confer ence for next year, asked OTA to hold the workshop here and invited other utility executives to attend the special session Thursday. The executives will be asked their views on what it would take to turn around the sagging nuclear in dustry. "The nuclear reactor manufac turing industry is in a period of extreme uncertainties," said Willis in a letter to the utility executives. "Cancellations have exceeded orders every year since 1974, and no new orders are being planned. By the end of the decade, most existing design and manufacturing capabili ties may be lost." Chief operating officers or senior executives in charge of nuclear power for utilities in New York, Illi nois, Michigan, Colorado, North and Sct.:th Carolina, Mississippi. Aia br:ma and Louisiana plan to attend the workshop.
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NATION 1. NEW YORK, N.Y. w. 45,000 JAN 29 1983 {Books AboUt The Boiiib DAVID CORN ci-rrJ. regard for human life than those mon-Recently I overheard a conversters." A proper response is a Strange sation between two middlelovian combination of comic absurdity aged women on a Fifth Ave-11d terror. Scheer does explain that the nue bus. "All seem to read .leaganauts are not lunatics bent on in these days are books and articles about cinerating the. world but "hostages to nuclear war," said one. The other halftheir own rhetoric." This kind evalua nodded in response. "Honestly," the tion is somehow not much comfort. first continued, "I just can't seem to get Nevertheless, Scheer's book provides a enough of it.,. fascinating look at our current crop of We are indeed in the midst of a boom nuclear warriors. of books about nuclear war, most of Across the Atlantic, E .. P. Thompson which fit into one of two categories: the has coined a term for the force that current climate of arms buildup and, in-drives the nuclear warriors: "exter credibly, the war itself. One of this minism, the inertial thrust within the season's standout offerings in the first United States.and the Soviet Union that category [excerpted in The Nation, drives hQth toward nuclear conflict. November 13, 1982] is Robert Scheer's In BeyiJhd the Cold War (Pantheon With Enough Shovels: Reagan, Bush & Books, 198"' pp., $15, paper $5.95), Nuclear War (Random House, 285 pp., Thompson contend~ that exterminism $14.95). Based on Scheer's newsmaking can be halted ont{}a basic reshaping interviews with Reagan, Bush and the of the global political status quo. The now infamous T.K. Jones, Deputy source. of our nuclear dilemma, he Under Secretary of Defense for notes, ts not weapons but the way the Research and Engineering, Strategic cold war has become institutionalized and Theater Nuclear Forces, and the on both sides. In fact, Thompson rest of the whole sick crew, it shows us believes we have only two or three how Reagan and his cronies think (if decades to prevent the predictable out that's the word for it) about nuclear come. ''We have to go behind the mis war. Take Charles Kupperman, a sites to the Cold War itself," he argues. Reagan appointee to the Arms Control Within the context of a continuing cold and Disarmament Agency: "It is possiwar, the freeze and arms control ble for any society to survive" a nuclear agreements are meaningless. war; it "is a destructive thing, but still in Exterminism and Cold War ( N.O.B. / large part a physics problem." Or take Verso, 358 pp., $27.SO, paper $9.SO), our Co~mander in Chief on the Ruswith an introduction by Thompson and sian character: "We have a different a foreword by the editors of New Left Review, consists of responses to David Corn is associate editor of Thompson's thesis by Rudolf Bahro, Nuclear Times. He has written for In the Medvedevs, Noam Chomsky, Alan These Times and New Statesman. Wolfe, Mary Kaldor and others. Taken ------
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as a whole, these essays attempt to understand the arms race within a historical and leftist perspective. Not all the contributors agree totally with Thompson, but the message is clear: nuclear sanity is far away, and nude-. ar war hovers much too close to the present. Thomas Powers also believes that war is close. In Thinking A bout the Next War (Alfred A. Knopf, 155 pp., $10.95), a collection of essays on the arms race originally written for: Com monweal, Powers raises the specter of the next war again and again. His essays, all well written and thoughtful, have a central theme: "We have not sec.:n the last of the big wars, and the next one will probably involve the use of nuclear weapons;" Powers notes, "Since 1945, the United States and the Soviet Union have been preparing to fight each other in a big war, and even tually they are going to do iL" And he relates the next war to the present-how it changes us today, how we live whh it now. Here is his young daughter's description of nuclear war: "It would probably be very smoky, and not many people, and lots of things ruined, and dark." His writing is without cliches or pretensions, full of pessimism and, probably, truth. "One day," he writes, "all the planes will go up at once, and no one will call them back." Powers's .. reflections may not add up to a prag matic program for averting war, but they are valuable for the lucid manner in which they address the subject. We should all be such good thinkers on this issue, especially Reagan and the rest of the gang. Less philosophical but more practical in its approach to the next war is Beyond the Freeze: The Road to Nuclear Sanity, by Daniel Ford, Henry Kendall, Steven Nadis and the Union of Concerned Scientists (Beacon Press, 132 pp., :$4.95), a primer on the arms race and an attempt to present a way out. Written for the U.C.S. 's convoca tion/teach-in, held November 11, 1982, on several hundred campuses nation wide, it has a justifiably urgent tone and makes the familiar arguments against further armament. Additionally, Beyond the Freeze provides a ~orthwhile thumbnail sketch of the history of the arms race. It avoids gruesome de scriptions of nuclear devastation, relying instead on the often wry testimony of established experts. For example, here's Paul Warnke on civil defense shelters: they let you choose "whether you want to be fast-fried or dryroasted." Beyond the Freeze calls for no first use of nuclear weapons and the suspension of East-West suspicions, but it doesn't really tell us much about what comes after the freeze. And in the end, it settles for deterrence rather than disarmament, albeit at arms levels dramatically lower than those existing today. So what about the war itself? When will it begin? August 4, 1985, if we are to believe Gen. Sir John Hackett, former commander of the North Atlan tic Treaty Organization's Northern Ar my Group. In his novel The Third World War: August 1985 and its sequel, The Third World War Revisited: The Untold Story (Macmillan, 446 pp., $15.75), Hackett, aided by a bevy of his NATO pals, predicts that a Soviet inva sion of Yugoslavia (on July 27, 1985, to .be exact) will touch off a nuclear war between us and them. Who starts it? They do. Who wins? We do-except for the inhabitants of Birmingham, England, who are vaporized by a Rus sian nuclear attack. (We respond by blasting Minsk.) In the meantime, a coup within the Soviet Union marks the collapse of Communism and Soviet im perialism. The war ends with the United States in a position to enforce global peace. Not too bad, as long as you don't live in Birmingham or Minsk. Hackett's account runs a far second on accuracy to Meet Mr. Bomb: A Practical Guide to Nuclear Extinction (High Meadow Publishing, 28 pp., $2), a sometimes amusing parody of nuclear war strategy and civil defense pro cedures edited by Tony Hendra, of Na tional Lampoon fame. Here we have the Russians, who have just completed eight hours of drunkert revelry, launch ing an all-out attack on May 1, 1984. Targets include the training rink for the U.S. Olympic ice-hockey team;. Sol zhenitsyn's house; Glen Cove, Long Island; and Charlton Heston's ski lodge. Following the attack, we have the "new subcompact U.S.A." One tank of gas will get you from coast to coast. Mutant-dating and riding 240-pound Shetland roaches are the new fads. Granted, much of Meet Mr. Bomb is in poor taste. But Mr. Bomb's parting message is apt: "Because whatever the devastation, whatever the destruction done to the body of man's knowledge, you can't kill an idea! I'm here to stay. ----~' .. A Winners of the 1982/83 NATIONAL BOOK CRITICS CIRCLE AWARDS Fiction-----Stanley Elkin GEORGE MILLS Dutton General Nonfiction ---Robert A. Caro THE PATH TO POWER: THE YEARS OF LYNDON JOHNSON Knopf Poetry-----Katha Pollitt ANTARCTIC TRAVELLER Knopf Criticism------Gore Vidal THE SECOND AMERICAN REVOLUTION AND OTHER ESSAYS (1976-1982} Random HousH Ivan Sandrof/Board Award-Leslie Marchand BYRON'S LETTERS AND JOURNALS Bulknap Pmss of H,ir,arcl lTni\'l!rs:tv Pr,,ss The NBCC is a non-profit organization of :mo proft;s:~ional critics and hook n,i1:w editors founded in 1974 to enhance standards of c:rit1c1sm and 1nu1uragl' apprt>na lion of quality literature. These are tht? eighth annual :\BCC awards.
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' ; 122 The Nation. Try and 'forget ine---you'll ;learn the shocks-disease and a lack of all vital hard way." : : ; necessities. Finally, its social fabric is Meet Mr.:1Jomb is fantasy of one tomapart,and democracy founders. A sort. Haclcett's "is .fantasy or-:imother, violent feudal, clannish order is on its more dangerouskind. Limited nuclear way~: In. other words, what we sup war is folly, ot, _as Ian-Clark suggests in posedly went to war to prot~t becomes Limited Nuckai War' (Princeton Unic;asu~ty~ .. versity Press~ 266 pp;; $22.50),merely a : ~~\Ve'll .. just have to acclimalise way for th'e strategists 1 0to deny the ourselves to the Post-Nuclear Area," revolutionars, interpretations of war in mutters James Bloggs to his wife, in. the nuclear agc ... And John O.Stocss: When .. the Wind Blows (Schocken inger, in Why Nations Go To War (St. Books, 40 pp., $10.95), Raymond Martin's Press, 226. pp., s12.,s, paper Briggs's cartoon tale about an elderly S6.9S), a useful.study of the major wars couple. living in the English countryside of this century,rerninds us that in "our after the war. Bloggs follows official time, unless the vanquished is completecivil defense procedures and assures his ly destroyed, a victors peace is seldom wife that all will be well. But slowly they lasting. H Theie are two other lessonS""he begin to suffer the effects of fallout. We. draws whic:b should _be kept .. in m_ind, see them waste away in the solitude of es~ally when reading Scbeer''s book: their quaint cottage. Their gums bleed. (1) "With ie,iard to the pro~{~ o,f ~he They.become nauseous. They lose their outbreak. of war~ -~e #di~ inhairand their wits. Arid they die, having dic:ate the crucial importance of,the per-sonalities of the leaders"; (2) "Dis. / January 29, 198: never understood wh~t happened o why. The Bloggs are innocents. Like mos of us. they have no stake in the game o nuclear chicken now played by two op posing ideologies. And they are un aware of the present danger. One ca1 assume that the leaders, generals an( strategists on both sides consider publi ignorance an asset. The recent increas in nuclear-war-related books must b somewhat worrisome for our nuclea cowboys. Reading all these new books i a tiring and frequently depressing task However, passing the word-that nu clear war means inconceivable losses is an essential step toward security. Th growing antinuclear bookshelf is on sign that the word is indeed being passec and that-despite all the pessimisr contained in these recent releases there is still some reason for hope. [ torted view, or the.adversary's cllarac-._ vct .. Ad t ter also help to pr~i,itate a conflict/!. ;-'}~ or1an ven llrers More realistic than Hacketts we-losea-littJe, we-win-a-lot scenario.in dealing DAVID BLACK. with the meanina of nuclear war-is The Day After Midnight:(Cheshire:Books, 143 pp., S7.9S),edit.ed by Michael Rior-: dan and based -on a 1979 -Office of Technol~-lft report udeh simply I 1dsTNuc::lear -War.~, BURTON. AND SPEKE. By William Harrison. St. Martin's/Marek; 420 pp. $17.95. I n the late 1850s, the British .adventurers Richard Francis Burton and John Hanning Speke ounted together fonhe source of the Nile. The two men could not have been less alike. Burton was an extrovert, an intellectual, a lusty, generous bohe mian; he respected alien customs and had little sympathy for British prejudices. Speke ~as an introvert, an anti intellectuai, afraid of and confused by his sexuality, mean-spirited, bloodthirsty and bigoted. Both men, though, felt themselves to be exiles, out of place in their own culture, and both sought relief from that alienation in their quest-as though, like alchemists, by manipulating the external world they could produce an internal change. William Harrison's novel Burton and Sj,eke uses historical material to fashion a narrative that is efficient, compelling and corortex. An alchemist himself, Harrison has selected details and shaped them with such skill that the book ~cc:omes. a search as mythical and significant as that of his two heroes. '_'The.book bcginsin 1854, when Burton and Spekc first meet in Adan, and Long a cult favorite' with the antinuclear crowd. this O.T.A. report is a very straightforward analysis of nuc::Jear devastation, inc::Judins a frightening and detailed look at the effects of various nuclear attacks on Detroit and Leningrad. It provides all the numbers you need. For instance, by using figure 16 on page 99, you can see that in the event of a nuclear attack on selected military targets in the United States (a one megaton ground-burst per ICBM silo, Strategic Air Command base and sup port base. with SO percent .fission and a nationwide P.F. (protection factor) of S-mcaning everyone is protected by 2 inches of steel, 6 inches of concrete or 9 inches of dirt), nearly 9. million people will die imrnedia.tely from the. fallout. That's if the .attaclc occurs in .November. Only 3 million will die if it comes in June. The wind makes the difference: it's more windy in autumn. The Day After Midnighl also offers a look at Charlottesville, Virgilll&i .after, the war. which in this scenario begins onJanuary 8, 1984. Charlottesville has been spared a direct hit, but it suffers a, painful disintegration. It's flooded with David Black's most recent novel is refugees and is .reeling with the afterMinds ( Wyden I Playboy). ends in 1864, with the two about t engage in a debate about the true sourc of the Nile before the British Associ.; tion for the Advancement of Scienct: We watch the slow decline of Burton' prestige over the decade. from its heigt when he becomes the first European t, enter the Arab holy cities of Mecca an Medina to its nadir when. as an exile he escapes to the American West Meanwhile Speke rises from a obscure, eccentric officer in India t the shining light of The Royal Gee graphical Society. Even in an era of compulsive diar) and letter-writing, Burton was unusual! prolific. and a historical novel based o his life alone would be a major unde: taking. Harrison not only gets Burto down on paper; he gives us autho1 itative versions of Speke and at least dozen other characters as well. In fac Burton and Speke is one of the few rece1 novels in which the reader can identif the character speaking purely throug language and tone. Burton's voice is e: travagant and tough. a cross betwee Mr. Micawber and Jake Barnes, whic comes out sounding like Henry Mille He can be airily dismissive, as when l' first sees the famous Amazon wan:io1 of King Gelele of Dahomev: "Twent British charladies armed ,~ith broorr sticks could demolish the whole lot. Or theatrical: "I've seen the upper Nile with rhe goldel'I '..Un of the pharoahs on it! l'n
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