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- Title:
- Quarterly Report Office of Technology Assessment, April 1 - June 30, 1984
- Series Title:
- Quarterly Report Office of Technology Assessment
- Creator:
- Office of Technology Assessment
- Publisher:
- Office of Technology Assessment
- Publication Date:
- 1984
- Language:
- English
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- Technology assessment ( LIV )
Budgets ( LIV )
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- federal government publication ( marcgt )
- Spatial Coverage:
- Washington, D.C.
Notes
- General Note:
- Quarterly report detailing the progress and budget for the Office of Technology Assessment.
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- University of North Texas
- Holding Location:
- University of North Texas
- Rights Management:
- This item is a work of the U.S. federal government and not subject to copyright pursuant to 17 U.S.C. §105.
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- IUF:
- University of Florida
- OTA:
- Office of Technology Assessment
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PAGE 1
Crr:\ Quarterly Report Off ice of Tech no logy Assessment April 1.-June 30, 1984
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. Office of Technology Assessment Congressional Board of the 98th Congress MORRIS K UDALL, Arizona, Chairman TED STEVENS, Alaska Vice Chairman Senate ORRIN G. HATCH Utah CHARLES McC. MATHIAS, JR. Maryland EDWARD M. KENN EDY Massachusetts ERNEST F. HOLLINGS South Carolina CLAIBORNE PELL Rhode Island CHARLES N. KIMBALL, Chairman Midwest Research Institute EARL BEISTLINE University of Alaska CHARLES A. BOWSHER General Accounting Office CLAIRE T. DEDRICK California Land Commission House GEGRGE E. BROWN, JR. California JOHN 0 DINGELL Michigan LARRY WINN, JR. Kansas CLARENCE E. MILLER Ohio JOHN H. GIBBONS (Nonvoting) Advisory Council JAMES C. FLETCH ER University of Pittsburgh S. DAVID FREEMAN Tennessee Valley Authority COOPER EVANS Iowa RACHEL McCULLOCH University of Wisconsin WILLIAM J. PERRY Hambrecht & Quist GILBERT GUDE Congressional Research Service DAVIDS. POTTER General Motors Corp. CARL N. HODGES University of Arizona Director JOHN H. GIBBONS LEWIS THOMAS Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center
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CONTENTS I. DIRECTOR'S STATEMENT A. The Quarter in Review .................... 1 II. COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS A. Summary of FY '83 Completions, Ongoing Work, and New Starts Through June 30, 1984 2 B. Products Delivered During the Quarter 1. Formal Assessment Reports 3 2. Other: Technical Memoranda, Background Papers, Staff Papers or Letter Memoranda, Workshop Proceedings, and Committee Prints 5 3. Testimony.............................................. 8 C. Other Communication with Congress 1. Briefings, Presentations, Workshops 10 2. Informal Discussions --Topics 11 D. Projects in Process as of 6/30/84 (including formal assessments, responses to TAB, and Committee requests) 1. Descriptions and Requester(s) 14 A. In Press as of 6/30/84 15 B. Undergoing TAB Review as of 6/30/84 23 C. In Progress as of 6/30/84 25 E. New Assessments Approved During the Quarter 46 III. PUBLICATION BRIEFS OF FORMAL ASSESSMENTS DELIVERED IV. SELECTED NEWS CLIPS ON OTA PUBLICATIONS AND ACTIVITIES
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-1 -I. DIRECTOR'S STATEMENT A. The Quarter in Review Deliveries. Reflecting the intense activities of Committees, OTA was kept very busy with delivering information drawn from current and recently completed assessments and special responses. As usual, the subjects covered were as varied as they are controversial. Probably the most noted issues were Ballistic Missile Defense and Acid Rain. In the former case, OTA is only in the early stages of a major assessment, but a Background Paper designed as a primer on boost-phase defense received an extraordinary amount of attention. Although generally praised, the Paper was criticized by the DOD as seriously technically flawed. (This allegation has turned out to be unsubstantiated.) In the case of acid rain, OTA's formal Report provides a thorough account, not only of the potential seriousness of the problem, but also the costs implied by different levels of clean-up. OTA's analysis methods enable Congress to examine on a state-by~state basis the likely effects of different abatement schemes. Because of this policy-relevant analytical capability, the Committees continue to make extensive use of OTA as they search for satisfactory solutions. Appointments. Mary Procter was appointed Director, Congressional and Public Affairs. Mary's past outstanding performance at OTA and her diverse background provide her with an excellent base of experience from which to grow in this key position. Concurrently, Eugenia Ufholz was assigned major additional responsibilities in helping assure the quality and extent of OTA's many relations with Committee members and staff. Visitors. OTA has long been characterized as a mixing ground, where stakeholders of all types converge to provide the agency with critical guidance in its work. On top of this activity, we continue to receive requests from foreign dignitaries for briefings on how we work as well as for the results of our work. During the quarter, for example, Foreign Minister Genscher (Federal Republic of Germany) spent more than an hour with us to discuss implications of biotechnology and also to examine the potential for OTA as a model for technology policy analysis in Germany. Similarly we had visits from delegations of the North Atlantic Association and the United Kingdom (Parliament). This broadening interest in OTA encouraged Pergamon press to contract with Professor Franklin Zweig (University of Rhode Island and University of Maryland) to write a comprehensive book about OTA. To assure that the work will be authoritative, accurate, and complete, OTA has pledged close cooperation with Dr. Zweig in providing full access to (unclassified) records. TAAC meeting. The Technology Assessment Advisory Council met on May 29/30. The format of this meeting focused on review (retrospective, current, and prospective) of two of OTA's nine program units. Since Programs represent the kernels of OTA's technical expertise and institutional memory, they provide a very convenient way to examine OTA's work. At the conclusion of the meeting, TAAC seemed unanimous that this format is clearly the most satisfact~ry yet devised, so we intend to follow this procedure in the future. It might also provide TAB members and staffers with a convenient opportunity to examine OTA's strategic approaches to specific areas of technology policy.
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-2 -II. COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS A. Summar1 of FY '83 Completions2 Ongoing Work in FY '842 Through June 30, 1984 FY '83 FY Products Released Total .9.!. Formal Assessments Other Technical Memoranda Background Papers or Case Studies Testimony Staff Memos or Substantial Letter. Memoranda Administrative Documents Projects Approved Assessments 11 7 10 33 19 6 11 Projects in Process as of June 30, 1984 1. In Press 3 2 0 10 6 2 4 Assessments 14 Other (TM's, Background Papers, etc.) 1 2. Under TAB Review 2 3. In Progress Assessments 22 Other...... . . . . 10 5 1 1 14 6 2 4 and New Starts '84 Q3 3 1 3 11 4 2 5
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-3 -II. COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS B. Products Released During the Quarter 1. Formal Assessment Reports ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION IN THE FEDERAL COAL LEASING PROGRAM The recent controversy over federal coal leasing has focused on the fair market value of the leases and whether the leases will be developed in a manner compatible with current environmental laws and regulations. The principal concern is whether the tracts that have been leased or offered for lease over the past two and one-half years, as well as those that will be considered for upcoming sales, have physical characteristics that would prevent them from being developed in compliance with the existing statutes, or have features not necessarily covered by these statutes that might cause some questions about the adequacy of the reviews carried out prior to sale by the Department of Interior. Specifically are the data and research on which their environmental reviews are based adequate? Do these reviews effectively account for cumulative impacts for coal development? This analysis examines the physical nature of the leased tracts to consider environmental problems that may arise when developed, and reviews the pre-sale analysis used by DOI to evaluate environmental impacts. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Mandated Study. As directed in the conference report accompanying the Interior and Related Agencies Appropriations Bill for FY 1984, this study was requested by the Senate Committee on Appropriations with support from the House Committee on Appropriations, Subcommittee on Interior. Project Director: Jenifer Robison, 6-2134 COMPUTERIZED MANUFACTURING AUTOMATION: EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION, AND THE WORKPLACE -This study assesses trends and the state of R&D in computerized manufacturing technologies over this decade; the development of industries producing computerized manufacturing equipment, software, and services; the potential utility of computerized automation for various categories of manufacturing industries that might use it; impacts on employment --job loss, job creation, job redefinition; new skill needs; and workplace quality; and implications for education and training, for general technological literacy, for specialized vocational skills, and for scientific and engineering expertise. It also analyzes the impacts of Federal policy options on the development and use of computerized automation systems in U.S. manufacturing. Automation and the Workplace: Selected Labor, Education, and Training Issues (Technical Memorandum) (March 1983) -(Requesters same as for full assessment) -Discusses concepts for evaluating the impacts of manufacturing automation, and describes the conduct of education, training, and retraining for persons seeking or holding jobs in manufacturing industries.
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-4 -Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation Hon. Bob Packwood, Chairman Hon. Harrison H. Schmitt, then Chairman, Subcommittee on S~ience, Technology, and Space Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Chairman Hon. Dan Quayle, Chairman, Subcommittee on Employment and Productivity Joint Economic Committee Hon. Roger W. Jepsen, then Vice Chairman, now Chairman Hon. Henry S. Reuss, then Chairman House Committee on Education and Labor Hon. George Miller, Chairman, Subcommittee on Labor Standards House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Project Director: Marjory Blumenthal, 6-2182 ACID RAIN AND TRANSPORTED AIR POLLUTANTS: IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC POLICY -Develops a range of impact scenarios of the social, economic, and environmental consequences of atmospheric changes caused by long-range transport of air pollutants, e.g., acid rain, and photochemical oxidants. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Hon. Robert T. Stafford, Chairman Hon. Jennings Randolph, Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Hon. Henry A. Waxman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health and Environment Project Director: Robert Friedman, 6-2131
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-5 -II. B. 2. Other: Technical Memoranda, Background Papers, Workshop Proceedings, Committee Prints, and Administrative Reports SPACE-BASED DIRECTED ENERGY BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE (Background Paper) -This paper draws upon previous OTA work on ballistic missile defense to provide an introduction to the technologies proposed for this purpose, and explores how one can evaluate their promise for various national defense missions. The Background Paper is unclassified. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Hon. Larry Pressler Hon. Paul Tsongas Project Director: Peter Sharfman, 6-2020 ARMS CONTROL IN SPACE WORKSHOP (Workshop Proceeding) -This workshop was preparatory to OTA's current work on ballistic missile defense technologies. The primary goal of the workshop was to facilitate exchange of ideas and viewpoints on all issues connected with control of anti-satellite weapons. The work is unclassified. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Hon. Larry Pressler, Chairman, Subcommittee on Arms Control, Oceans, International Operations, and Environment Project Director: Peter Sharfman, 6-2020 IMPACT OF NEUROSCIENCES (Background Paper) Because several mental and organic brain disorders, such as depression, insomnia, and Alzheimer disease, become more common with age, and because the population itself is aging, neuroscience research into these and other disorders will become increasingly important. This paper reviews the status of basic neuroscience research into these disorders and explores some of the broad social and ethical issues that might arise from such research. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Special Committee on Aging Hon. John Heinz, Chairman Hon. Lawton Chiles, then Ranking Minority Member House Select Committee on Aging Hon. Claude Pepper, then Chairman; still Member Hon. Matthew Rinaldo, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Edward R. Roybal, current Chairman House Committee on Education and Labor Hon. Carl D. Perkins, Chairman Project Director: Robert Harootyan, 6-2095
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-6 -REVIEW OF POSTAL AUTOMATION (ZIP+4) TECHNOLOGY (Technical Memorandum) The U.S. Postal Service (USPS) has begun implementation of a program to further automate mail processing through the use of a new generation of mail sorting equipment and a 9-digit zip code (ZIP+4). USPS decisions to date have generated questions about the evaluation and selection of ZIP+4 technology. This study reviewed the technology selected by USPS and the assumptions underlying that selection to determine, to the extent possible, whether and how different technology and related assumptions might affect overall evaluation of the postal ZIP+4 automation program. This study was closely coordinated with GAO, which conducted a related but different study. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Rouse Committee on Post Office and Civil Service Ron. William D. Ford, Chairman Ron. Mickey Leland, Chairman, Subcommittee on Postal Personnel and Modernization Ron. Robert Garcia, Chairman, Subcommittee on Postal Operations and Services Project Director: Fred Wo~d, 6-2244 LIST OF PUBLICATIONS --Update, May 1984 WHAT IS OTA --Update, June 1984
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-7 -OTA Staff Papers or Letter Memoranda Date 04/06/84 05/08/84 05/10/84 05/21/84 Subject Groundwater Protection Standards for Hazardous Waste Land Disposal Facilities: Will They Prevent More Superfund Sites? Review of the Air Force Health Study (Project Ranch Hand II) Baseline Morbidity Results Tamper-Proof Nature of the New Social Security Card OTA Comments on Proposed Revisions to Department of Defense Directive 5210.48 Related OTA Work Cleanup of Uncontrolled Hazardous Waste Sites Under Superfund General Health Program activities General Communication and Information Technologies Program activities Scientific Validity of Polygraph Testing
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8 -II. B. 3. Testimony Date 04/03/84 04/11/84 04/25/84 04/26/84 06/07/84 06/12/84 06/13/84 06/14/84 06/14/84 Committee/Chairman House Committee on Energy and Commerce, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment (Congressman Henry A. Waxman) Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs (Senator Alan Simpson) Senate Committee on Foreign Relations (Senator Charles H. Percy) Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, Subcommittee on Energy Regulation (Senator Frank Murkowski) House Committee on Agriculture, Subcommittee on Department Operations, Research, and Foreign Agriculture (Congressman George Brown, Jr.) House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs (Congressman Morris K. Udall) House Committee on Science and Technology, Subcommittee on Science, Research, and Technology (Congressman Doug Walgren) House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on Human Rights and International Organizations (Congressman Gus Yatron) House Committee on Post Office and Civil Sevices, Subcommittee on Postal Operations and Services (Congressman Robert Garcia) and Subcommittee on Postal Personnel and Modernization (Congressman Mickey Leland) Subject/Person Testifying World Population and Fertility Planning Technologies (Louise Williams) Scientific Research on Alcoholism Treatment and Rehabilitation (Denise Dougherty) New Technologies for Defense Against Strategic Ballistic Missiles (John H. Gibbons) U.S. Natural Gas Resources (Steven E. Plotkin) Issues in Food and Agricultural Research (Michael J. Phillips) Environmental Protection in the Federal Coal Leasing Program (John H. Gibbons) Development and Diffusion of Commercial Technologies: Should the Federal Government Redefine Its Role? (John Alic) Technologies to Sustain Tropical Forest Resources (Bruce Ross-Sheriff) Postal Automation (Fred B. Wood)
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06/20/84 06/20/84 -9 -House Committee on Government Operations, Subcommittee on Manpower and Housing (Congressman Barney Frank) House Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries, Subcommittee on Merchant Marine (Congressman Mario Biaggi) Occupational Safety and Health (Karl Kronebusch) Shipbuilding Technology (Peter Johnson)
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10 II. C. Other Communication with Congress 1. Formal Briefings, Presentations, Workshops (With Committee Staffs) Committees of the House Committee on Agriculture o Changing structure of American agriculture Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Africa o Technological alternatives to food aid Subcommittee on International Security and Scientific Affairs 0 Technology transfer to the Middle East Committee on Science and Technology o Computerized manufacturing Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Agriculture Research and Environment o Wilderness, land capability, and coastal zone issues o Changing structure of American agriculture Select Committee on Hunger o Sub-Saharan Africa food problems Committees of the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Subcommittee on Soil, Water Conservation, Forestry, and Environment o Wildlife issues Subcommittee on Foreign Agricultural Policy o Technological alternatives to food aid Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation o Land capability and coastal zone issues Committee on Foreign Relations Subcommittee on African Affairs o Technological alternatives to food aid
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11 -II. C. 2. Informal Discussions --Topics In addition to briefings and presentations, informal discussions take place continually as requested by Members and staff to be updated on OTA work to provide.information that Members and Committees may need relative to legislation pending or under consideration or for hearings and related testimony. Topics Alternative electric power generation demonstration projects Ethanol fuels and gasahol Gas pricing legislation Coal leasing Surface mine reclamation Electric generation technologies Energy use in federal buildings Energy policy Building thermal envelopes Cogeneration and coal slurry pipelines Road and bridges technology Energy conservation Nuclear power Technology transfers BLS projections of employment and projection methodology Technological displacement, employment, and minimum wage Female employment in services Jobs displacement in Frostbe~t International trade and employment in U.S. firms Technology and job creation Educational technologies Apprenticeship Economic opportunities resulting from development of advanced materials Stringfellow acid pits RCRA regulations Superfund waste sites Conclusions of the study on technology transfer to the Middle East International cooperation and competition in civilian space activities Landsat legislation National Commission on Space New ballistic missile defense technologies Food and Renewable Resources Program capabilities Pesticide manufacturers Arid-lands crops, new crops, and biotechnology Tropical deforestation and reforestation/international organizations Water resources Environmental pollution and fish tumors Native plant chemicals and conservation of genetic resources International environmental programs Wildlife
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Indian health assessment Physician payment 12 Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome Regulation of the release of R-DNA organisms into the environment Physicians and technology Medical malpractice Cancer policy Communiation disability devices Prevention and health promotion Blood banking Polygraph DRG study VA procurement/NMR Long-term care Alzheimer disease Environmental release of genetically altered organisms Bioethics oversight Arthritis and NIH Privacy of genetic information Risk assessment Emerging biological issues Human gene therapy Biotechnology Office automation project Science policy institutions in the federal structure Intellectual property Export of computer technology International telecommuniations Supercomputers Computers and education Potential application of interactive videodisc technology in education Status of the financial services assessment Polygraph Zip+4 Government information systems Industrial control costs (acid rain) Rural air pollution monitoring Offshore oil and gas development Arctic oil and gas technology Shipbuilding productivity Petroleum production technology Trade policies UN conference on trade and development Maritime R&D Computer-aided design Manufacturing technologies/production Aquaculture/fisheries technology Soviet Merchant Marine Groundwater report and corrective action Underground storage tanks Radioactive waste
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Airport system development Civilian space stations Transportation research Educational testing Science policy -13 -Transportation of hazardous materials US/USSR cooperation in space Status of technology and regional development report
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-14 -DESCRIPTIONS AND REQUESTERS FOR CURRENT OTA ASSESSMENTS AS OF JUNE 30, 1984
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15 II. D. 2. Description and Requester(s) of Projects A. IN PRESS AS OF 6/30/84 U.S. OIL REPLACEMENT CAPABILITY --Analyzes the capacity of various technologies to respond to the demands of the economy under conditions of a major oil d~sruption, including both national aggregate questions and regional analysis. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Hon. Charles H. Percy, Chairman Project Director: Tom Bull, 6-2127 INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AND COMPETITION IN CIVILIAN SPACE ACTIVITIES -This project evaluates the current status of international competition and cooperation in key areas of space technology in space science, and for educational and scientific exchange. It investigates ways in which space technologies and their products could be used as instruments of U.S. foreign policy, and examines military space activities insofar as they affect civilian programs and international commercial and political relations. UNISPACE Conference (Technical Memorandum) (March 1983) -Evaluates the technical and economic issues that arose in the United Nations Conference on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UNISPACE '82) in August 1982, where many of the important issues were discussed in an international context. (Requester: Same as for the full assessment) Remote Sensing and the Private Sector: Issues for Discussion (Technical Memorandum) (March 1984) -Explores the major issues that private ownership of remote sensing raises and identifies potential requirements or conditions the government may wish to impose on private sector offerors in order to preserve existing public benefits of remote sensing. (Requester: Same as for full assessment) Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon. Larry Winn, Jr., Ranking Minority Member Hon. Ronnie G. Flippo, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Space, Science, and Applications Hon. Harold C. Hollenbeck, Member Joint Economic Committee Hon. Roger W. Jepsen, then Vice Chairman; now Chairman Project Director: Ray Williamson, 6-2209 TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER TO THE MIDDLE EAST -This study assesses patterns of competition in technology transfer to the oil-rich nations of the region, investigates the capability of these nations to effectively
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-16 -absorb Western Technology, evaluates likely future trends in technology transfer to the Middle East, and examines the implications for U.S. foreign and international economic policy. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Hon. Jake Garn, Chairman Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Hon. Charles H. Percy, Chairman, Subcommittee on Energy, Nuclear Proliferation, and Government Processes Hon. John Glenn, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Energy, Nuclear Proliferation, and Government Processes House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon. Larry Winn, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Albert Gore, Jr., Chairman, Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight Hon. Roberts. Walker, then Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight Project Director: Martha Harris, 6-2016 MEDICAL TECHNOLOGY AND COSTS OF THE MEDICARE PROGRAM The costs of the Medicare program have been rising rapidly, and medical technology is a prime component of this increase. The project analyzes a broad range of mechanisms to reduce or limit Medicare costs related to medical technology --from changes in reimbursement mechanisms to control of particular technological services. Interim Deliverables The Effectiveness and Costs of Alcoholism Treatment (Case Study) (March 1983) Examines the evidence on alcoholism treatment in a variety of settings (in-patient care, out-patient hospital care, community based treatment centers, etc.) as well as the effectiveness of various methods of treatment (chemical aversion therapy, group therapy, and Alcoholics Anonymous). (Case Study published March 1983) (Requester: Senate Committee on Finance, Subcommittee on Health) The Implications of Variations in Length of Hospital Stay (Case Study) (August 1983) Examines the evidence on how variations in length of hospital stay affect patient outcomes and the implications of changes in length of stay for quality of care, access, and Medicare/Medicaid program costs. (Requester: Senate Committee on Finance, Subcommittee on Health) The Safety, Efficacy and Cost Effectiveness of Apheresis (Case Study) (July 1983) -The conditions for which the benefits and risks of therapeutic plasmapheresis (a costly procedure which is being used to treat an increasing number of medical conditions) have been demonstrated were determined. (Requester: Senate Committee on Finance, Subcommittee on Health)
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17 Diagnosis Related Groups: Implications for Medical Technology (Technical Memorandum) (July 1983) -This Technical Memorandum examines DRG's, their potential use in the Medicare payment system, and the potential impact on medical technology use. It also describes New Jersey's experience with diagnostic related groups, a method of prospective hospital reimbursement, and the cost implications for national implementation. (Requester: House Committee on Energy and Commerce, and the Subcommittee on Health and Environment) The Efficacy and Cost Effectiveness of Continuous Ambulatory Peritoneal Dialysis (CAPD) (Case Study; due Summer 1984) -This Case Study will assess the growing use of CAPD in terms of its costs, risks, and benefits. (Requester: Senate Committee on Finance) Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Hon. Henry A. Waxman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health and Environment Senate Committee on Finance Hon. Bob Dole, Chairman Hon. Dave Durenberger, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health Hon. Max Baucus, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Health Project Director: Anne Kesselman Burns, 6-2070 HEALTH AND SAFETY CONTROLS IN THE WORKPLACE -The assessment includes: 1) discussion of workplace safety and health in the U.S.; 2) data about workplace injuries and illnesses; 3) major workplace health hazards and diseases; 4) a description of technologies for evaluation and control of occupational health and safety hazards; 5) supplemental tools for occupational safety and health (e.g., occupational medicine, epidemiology, education, and training); 6) the roles of OSHA and NIOSH; 7) an analysis of the impacts of OSHA standard setting and enforcement; 8) the uses and limits of economic analysis in decisionmaking for occupational safety and health; 9) strategies for control of workplace safety and health hazards; 10) reindustrialization and occupational safety and health; and 11) safety and health in the workplace of the future. Case Study Deliverables to be combined in a single Background Paper (June 1984) 1) OSHA Health Inspection Data 2) The Role of Economic Analysis in Health and Safety Regulation 3) New Technologies for Controlling Cotton Dust Exposure 4) The Effects of the OSHA Lead Standard 5) Controls for Silica Exposure 6) The Cause, Diagnosis, and Treatment of Carpal Tunnel Syndrome 7) Safety and Health Hazards in the Office
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18 -Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Chairman House Committee on.Education and Labor Hon. George Miller, Chairman, Subcommittee on Labor Standards House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Project Director: Michael Gough, 6-2070 FEDERAL POLICIES AND THE MEDICAL DEVICES INDUSTRY -This assessment fills some of the gaps in the basic information about the medical devices industry and analyzes implications of alternative Federal policies. The study developed information about the nature of firms that manufacture medical technologies, conducted case studies of selected medical devices, and examined present and proposed Federal policies that influence the medical devices industry and, in turn, the cost and effectiveness of medical devices. Interim Deliverables (Case Studies): Six medical devices were selected for detailed case study: Boston elbow, contact lenses, hemodialysis equipment, nuclear magnetic resonance, technologies for managing urinary incontinence, and wheelchairs. These devices perform different functions in medicine (diagnosis, treatment, and rehabilitation) and relate to different areas of policy (research and development, patents, premarketing approval, third-party payment, and government procurement). In addition, a Technical Memorandum, Procurement and Evaluation of Medical Devices by the Veterans Administration,_ will examine the policies of the Veterans Admi_nistration regarding the evaluation and purchase of medical devices. (Request: same as for full assessment.) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Chairman Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs Hon. Alan K. Simpson, Chairman Hon. Alan Cranston, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Jane E. Sisk, 6-2070 TECHNOLOGY AND AGING IN AMERICA Improved health care and increased understanding of the physiology of aging, as well as applications of computers, robotics, and telecommunications in the home and workplace, may increase the life expectancy, independence, productivity, and quality of life for the aging American population. This study assesses the role of technology in the health and life sciences, employment, housing, and long-term care services. Where appropriate, international comparisons of responses to elderly populations (within the industrialized world) were made to suggest options for Congressional consideration.
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-19 -Impact of Neurosciences (Background Paper) (March 1984) -Because several mental and organic brain disorders, such as depression, insomnia, and Alzheimer disease, become more common with age, and because the population itself is aging, neuroscience research into these and other disorders will become increasingly important. This paper reviews the status of basic neuroscience research into these disorders and explores some of the broad social and ethical issues that might arise from such research. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Special Committee on Aging Hon. John Heinz, Chairman Hon. Lawton Chiles, then Ranking Minority Member House Select Committee on Aging Hon. Claude Pepper, then Chairman; still Member Hon. Matthew Rinaldo, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Edward R. Roybal, current Chairman House Committee on Education and Labor Hon. Carl D. Pe.rkins, Chairman Project Director: Robert Harootyan, 6-2095 EFFECTS OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ON FINANCIAL SERVICES SYSTEMS -This study: (a) describes the cur:rent status of the financial services industry, (b) forecasts the technologies that may be used for delivery in financial services, (c) analyzes the potential impacts of the applicable technologies on the evaluation of the financial services industry, and (d) identifies the mechanisms through which policy relative to the financial services industry could be implemented. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs Hon. Fernand J. St Germain, Chairman Hon. J. William Stanton, then Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Hon. James T. Broyhill, Ranking Minority Member Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Hon. Jake Garn, Chairman Hon. Donald w. Riegle, then Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Zalman Shavell, 6-2036 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT --Assesses future patterns of research and development in information technologies to 1) characterize current information technology R&D activities by U.S. and selected foreign entities; 2) analyze impacts of expected changes in industry, Federal policy, competition and technology on U.S. R&D; 3) assess the effects of changing R&D patterns on future U.S. competitiveness; and 4) identify alternative Federal policies for encouraging R&D in the information technologies.
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-20 -Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon. Larry Winn, Jr., Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chairman Hon. James T. Broyhill, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Timothy E. Wirth, Chairman, Subcommittee on Telecommunications, Consumer Protection, and Finance Project Director: Rick Weingarten, 6-2240 MANAGING HIGH-LEVEL COMMERCIAL RADIOACTIVE WASTE (Summary published; Final Report scheduled for publishing in July 1984) Analyzes the techniques and procedures for the safe disposal of commercial high-level radioactive waste and evaluates a range of disposal strategies. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Howard w Cannon, then Chairman Hon. Ernest F. Hollings, then Vice Chairman, National Ocean Policy Study; now Ranking Minority of the Committee Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Hon. Henry_M. Jackson, then Chairman House Committee on Foreign Affairs Hon. Clement J. Zablocki, then Chairman House Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries Hon. John B. Breaux, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Oceanography House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Project Director: Tom Cotton, 6-2132 PROTECTING THE NATION'S GROUNDWATER FROM CONTAMINATION Groundwater contamination that can be attributed to human activity is being detected nation-wide and with increasing frequency, and it can have serious and long-lasting impacts on human health, the environment, and local and regional economies. Because the conditions that have been identified as giving rise to groundwater contamination are so pervasive, there is a growing national concern about the amount of contamination that has yet to be detected and the vulnerability of this national resource to still further degr~dation. This study provides a comprehensive technical framework to assist the Congress in understanding and addressing the major groundwater contamination issues facing the nation. These issues relate to the "process" of contamination, from its occurrence and detection, to its associated impacts, mitigation, and/or management. Issues examined include determining the extent and nature of the nation's groundwater contamination, characterizing the transpo'rt and fate of contaminants, monitoring, information management, and mitigating groundwater contamination. Key federal policy options are also be addressed.
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-21 -Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Hon. Robert T. Stafford, Chairman Hon. Jennings Randolph, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Paula Stone, 6-2004 AIRPORT SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT -This study assesses the technologies to be applied to increase capacity or improve service at airports as well as the funding and institutional mechanisms by which the technologies can be deployed and brought to bear on the problems of civil aviation. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Public Works and Transportation Hon. James J. Howard, Chairman Hon. Norman Y. Mineta, Chairman, Subcommittee on Aviation Senate Committee on the Budget Hon. Pete V. Domenici, Chairman Hon. Ernest F. Hollings, then Ranking Minority Member; still Member Project Director: Larry Jenney, 6-2177 CIVILIAN SPACE STATIONS -With completion of the pre-operational phase of the Shuttle program, NASA is now actively considering another ~ajor civilian space program: a space station or perm.anent presence in space. Such a program has been described as the next logical step in space for the U.S. The quarter century since the space age's commencement has seen fundamental chans,es in the public perception of and ambitions for our continuing civil presence in space --changes brought about to a great extent by the extradordinary success of earlier space programs. Therefore, it is important that Congressional debate on any such program not only draw upon sound and comprehensive scientific and engineering information, but that financial, economic, international, and broad national security factors also be given careful consideration in the context of today's circumstances. This assessmemt was designed and conducted to illuminate all of these important considerations so as to help ensure that the debate will be well informed on all important contemporary issues. Salyut: Soviet Steps Toward a Human Presence in Space (Technical Memorandum) (December 1983) -A discussion of the development, current status, and future development of the Soviet Salyut Space Station Program. (Requester: Same as the full assessment)
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-22 -Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Appropriations Hon. Jake Garn, Chairman, Subcommittee on HUD-Independent Agencies (endorsement) Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation Hon. Bob Packwood, Chairman Hon. Howard N. Cannon, then Ranking Minority Member Hon. Harrison Schmitt, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Technology and Space House Committee on the Budget Hon. James R. Jones, Chairman House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon. Ronnie G. Flippo, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Space Science and Applications Project Director: Tom Rogers, 6-2175
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-23 B. UNDER TAB REVIEW AS OF 6/30/84 BLOOD POLICY AND TECHNOLOGY -Technologies affecting the availability, uses, and risks of blood products were assessed. New technologies were assessed in the areas of (1) blood collection, processing, storage, and distribution; (2) identification, isolation, production, and use of blood components; (3) blood substitutes; and (4) identification and prevention of blood-transmitted diseases and other risks. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Project Director: Larry Miike, 6-2070 TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION, AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT -This assessment investigates the role of fast-growing "high-technology" industries in regional economic development. These industries, engaged in the systematic development and commercialization of new products and processes, are an important factor in U.S. competitiveness and a major source of new manufacturing jobs. The study (1) determines where hightechnology firms are appearing and the factors that affect their creation and growth; (2) identifies and evaluates the effectiveness of State and local initiatives to encourage innovation and high-technology development; (3) explores the changing opportunities presented by emerging technologies such as robotics and bioengineering; and (4) addresses the appropriate Federal role in affecting the conditions for such growth in the future. Census of State Government Initiatives Programs for High-Technology Industrial Development (Background Paper) (May 1983) The paper identifies dedicated State government programs for high-technology firms. Encouraging High Technology Development (Background Paper) (February 1984) -Presents information on the role of State and local hightechnology development programs, and university and private sector efforts to foster high-tech industrial development. It discusses survey results bearing on the design, effectiveness, and transferability of selected State programs. It also explores economic theories of regional development and business location as they relate to high technology.
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24 -Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon. Doug Walgren, Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Research, and Technology House Committee on Small Business Hon. Parren J. Mitchell, Chairman House Task Force on Industrial Innovation and Productivity Hon. Stanley Lundine, Chairman Joint Economic Committee Hon. Henry S. Reuss, then Chairman House Committee on,Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs Hon. Fernand St Germain, Chairman Hon. John J. LaFalce, Chairman, Subcommittee on Economic Stabilization Project Director: Paul B. Phelps, 6-2173
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25 -C. IN PROGRESS AS OF 6/30/84 Energy, Materials, and International Security Division EFFECTS OF TECHNOLOGY ON THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC TRANSITION -New technologies, growing international competition in markets once dominated by U.S. suppliers, and dramatic changes in the cost and availability of oil and other critical resources may lead to a fundamental change in the structure of the U.S. economy. These changes could also change the utility of major classes of public policy. The analysis conducted for this project will describe ways the national economy may change during the next two decades, explore the ways these changes may alter prospects for employment and profitable investment in different major classes of economic activities, describe how the changes may alter critical aspects of the quality of life in America, and examine the implications of these changes for national policy. The analysis will be constructed around seven tightly integrated projects. Six of these will be designed to explore plausible ways the economy may move to meet basic market requirements during the next two decades and the nature of the employment and investment opportunities created. The areas covered will include: the health industries, agriculture and food processing, construction, transportation and communication, education, and "leisure-time" industries. At least two possibilities will be considered in each case: (1) an extrapolation of current trends, and (2) an analysis of ways the market could be met assuming that new technologies were introduced with no market "imperfections" except those explicitly introduced where markets clearly are inadequate (e.g., regulations designed to protect the environment). This analysis of "potentials" will not be a forecast in the conventional sense but would be designed to illuminate the range of possible impacts of new technologies. When the "potential" analysis differs significantly from projections based on trends, the work will provide a convenient basis for determining whether or not the divergence results from poorly designed federal programs. A separate project will examine basic manufacturing and service industries not covered elsewhere. Each of these projects will result in a separate publication and an evaluation of specific policy problems identified in the sectors covered. The components will be combined systematically using a simple accounting procedure developed for the project. Where relevant, the results will be compared with major macroeconomic models developed elsewhere. The integrated analysis will be used to examine major national policy issues affecting capital formation, employment, international competition, investments in infrastructure, research and development priorities, and other areas of major national interest. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Bob Packwood, Chairman Hon. Ernest Hollings, Ranking Minority Member
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-26 -Senate Committee on the Budget Hon. Pete V. Domenici, Chairman Hon. Lawton Chiles, Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Ho~se Committee on Post Office and Civil Service Hon. William D. Ford, Chairman House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman House Committee on Education and Labor Hon. Carl D. Perkins, Chairman House Committee on the Judiciary Hon. Peter W. Rodino, Chairman House Committee on Public Works and Transportation Hon. James J. Howard, Chairman Project Director: Henry Kelly, 6-3960 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: Summer 1985 POTENTIAL U.S. NATURAL GAS AVAILABILITY -Will help determine domestic (lower 48 states) natural gas availability over the next few decades, and will help understanding of the factors that affect this availability (resource base, production rates and costs, future technology trends, R&D needs, and institutional and policy issues). U.S. Natural Gas Availability: Conventional Gas Supply Through the Year 2000 (Technical Memorandum) (September 1983) -This Technical Memorandum describes and evaluates alternative estimates of the conventional natural gas resource base of the lower 48 states; describes and interprets past and current trends in discovery and production of this gas resource; and projects a credible range of potential (conventional) gas production for the next 15-20 years. (Requesters: Same as for full assessment) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Hon. Pete V. Domenici, Chairman, Subcommittee on -Energy Research and Development House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman, co-signed by Hon. Philip R. Sharp, Chairman, Subcommittee on Fossil and Synthetic Fuels Hon. Gary Hart, Senator from Colorado Project Director: Steven Plotkin, 6-2110 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: August 1984
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-27 -LOAD MANAGEMENT AND GENERATING TECHNOLOGIES FOR ELECTRIC UTILITIES IN THE 1990's -Electric utilities are more constrained in their choice of generating technologies than they were a decade ago when they engaged in a massive construction program of large powerplants. In the early eighties, with depleted financial reserves, and faced with uncertainties in electricity demand forecasts, utilities are avoiding commitments to complex, long-lead time, large powerplants. The Federal government, through a portion of its research and development funding, renewable tax credits, and regulation encouraging the purchase of power from dispersed sources, has directly and indirectly encouraged the development of a series of new technologies that have in comm.on the small size and shortlead times which in theory offer greater flexibility to utilities. Such new technologies include: utility-controlled load management, fuel cells, advanced coal and gas combustion technologies, photovoltaics, solar thermal power, wind and low head hydro. The purpose of this assessment is to determine if utilities perceive these technoloiges as in fact being of likely practical significance in providing more flexible generating capacity. Do utilities anticipate problems in planning, constructing, maintaining, dispatching, and controlling these technologies that will hinder their use? Are these technologies likely to be adopted in significant numbers by non-utility-users which will then sell power to the grid? Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Project Director: Peter Blair, 6-2133 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: February 1985 TECHNOLOGIES FOR SURFACE MINE RECLAMATION ON WESTERN FEDERAL LANDS -In the seven years since enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA), coal companies have made significant improvements in reclamation technologies and methodologies, and the prospects for the success of surface mine reclamation have brightened. Yet considerable doubts still exist among most parties in the surface mining debate as to the ability to reclaim certain types of land or mitigate particular types of impacts. In particular, concerns have been raised about the costs of, and the short-and long-term prospects for, revegetation and reclamation on lands with: limited precipitation and/or high evapotranspiration rates, slopes exceeding 40 percent, a lack of adequate topsoil material, saline or alkali soil structures (or sodic conditions resulting from lack of topsoil), or a high potential for wind erosion. Debate also continues on the most successful methods for mitigating impacts to the hydrologic regime, to archaeological and peleontological sites, and to wildlife resources. This study will assess the effectiveness of current mining and reclamation technologies and methodologies, and the fairness and effectiveness of Federal programs and policies, in fulfilling the statutory mandates for environmental protection on Federal lands in the West. Methods for evaluating the success of reclamation practices, including the levels
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-28 -and kinds of uncertainty, will be studied, as will the relative costs and benefits of various reclamation techniques. An important part of the study will be an evaluation of the techniques for reclaiming abandoned mined lands. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs Hon. Morris K. Udall, Chairman Project Director: Jenifer Robison, 6-2134 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: June 1985 TECHNOLOGIES TO REDUCE U.S. MATERIALS IMPORT VULNERABILITY The focus of the study will be on technical opportunities to reduce our vulnerability to interruptions in supply of strategic and critical imported materials in the longer term (5 to 25 years) through, for example, substitution, including materials, process and product substitution, improved mining, processing and recycling technologies, and more efficient fabrication and design. The study will also identify major changes in materials vulnerability that are likely to occur over the next 25 years because of advances in such fields as electronics, energy, and transportation. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Bob Packwood, Chairman Hon. Howard Cannon, then Ranking Minority Member Hon. Harrison Schmitt, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon. Doug Walgren, Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Research, and Technology Hon. Dan Glickman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Transportation, Aviation, and Materials Project Director: Lance N. Antrim, 6-2008 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: July 1984 TECHNOLOGY AND STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT: RETRAINING ADULT DISPLACED WORKERS -This study will examine how estimates of worker displacement are made, how uncertainties in the estimates could be reduced, and what degree of uncertainty is unavoidable. Retraining programs, both domestic and foreign, will be evaluated as to their ability to reduce unemployment and provide reasonable opportunities to displaced workers. The study will assess the extent to which policies other than retraining may be useful in reducing unemployment.
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-29 -Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Finance Hon. Bob Dole, Chairman Hon. John Heinz, Chairman, Subcommittee on Economic Growth, Employment, and Revenue Sharing Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin Hatch, Chairman Hon. Dan Quayle, Chairman, Subcommittee on Employment and Productivity House Committee on Small Business Hon. Parren J. Mitchell, Chairman Hon. Berkley Bedell, Chairman, Subcommittee on General Oversight and the Economy Project Director: Julie Gorte, 6-2205 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: March 1985 CLEANUP OF UNCONTROLLED HAZARDOUS WASTE SITES UNDER SUPERFUND The major objectives are to: (1) perform a comparative analysis of available and emerging cleanup technologies to reveal their advantages and disadvantages, costs, effectiveness, and R&D needs; (2) examine site and cleanup technology selection processes; (3) examine current procedures and future needs for setting cleanup goals; (4) assess how active and perhaps permitted waste management facilities may become future uncontrolled sites; (5) examine how the technical qualifications of personnel and Federal-State coordination affect the effectiveness of cleanup implementation; and (6) examine a number of economic issues and develop legislative options combining different choices for cleanup technologies, goals, and costs. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon. James H. Scheuer, Chairman, Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Agriculture Research, and Environment House Committee on Agriculture Hon. George E. Brown, Chairman, Subcommittee on Department Operations, Research, and Foreign Agriculture House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chairman Hon. James J. Florio, Chairman, Subcommittee on Commerce, Transportation, and Tourism Project Director: Joel Hirschhorn, 6-2089 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: September 1984
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30 -STRATEGIC COMMAND, CONTROL1 COMMUNICATIONS, AND INTELLIGENCE (C 3I) SYSTEMS -Will assess the technical capabilities and vulnerabilities of present U.S. c3 I systems with special emphasis on additions to the system that could usefully be made in the near term with available technology. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Hon. Ted Stevens (then Chairman, OTA Congressional Board) at the request of the Hon. Paul Laxalt, Chairman, Subcommittee on Military Construction, Senate Committee on Appropriations House Committee on Appropriations Hon. Joseph P. Addabbo, Chairman, Subcommittee on Defense Project Director: Bruce Blair, 6-2015 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: Indefinite NEW BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE TECHNOLOGIES --President Reagan's "strategic defense initiative" (SDI) calls for a greatly accelerated program of research and development of ballistic missile defense (BMD) systems, with the avowed goal of "eliminating the threat posed by nuclear ballistic missiles." The Defense Department has responded with a plan that would alter exist1ng policies in three major ways: 1) it implicitly calls into question our commitment to the 1972 ABM Treaty, for although the President intends to keep R&D activities within the bounds set by the Treaty, deployment of these systems would certainly require extensive modification of, or withdrawal from, the treaty; 2) it shifts R&D emphasis from relatively conservative technologies to relatively high risk but potentially high payoff technologies, including space-based directed energy weapons; 3) it calls for a substantial increase in funding, especially in FY '86 and thereafter. The first phase of OTA's study would develop criteria for assessing potential BMD systems and their components by identifying a range of possible objectives for a deployed system and translating these into performance requirements. Assessment criteria will also be developed for evaluating the effects of potential BMD systems on crisis and arms race stability, arms control, alliance relations, and foreign relations generally. The assessment would aim at identifying performance levels which can reasonable be expected in specified time frames, and assessing proposed technologies_ and systems on the basis of feasible rather than ideal levels of performance. It would also examine their likely cost and technical risk. The first phase wuld also include analysis of anti-satellite (ASAT) systems, since ASAT and BMD technologies are inherently related --advanced BMD systems would almost certainly have ASAT capabilities, and ASAT systems are among the critical possible countermeasures to a BMD system. The second phase would be a more detailed assessment of the specific technologies delineated in the Fletcher Committee report and would identify policy options.
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31 -Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Armed Services Hon. Melvin Price, Chairman Hon. William L. Dickinson, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Les Aspin, Member Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Hon. Charles H. Percy, Chairman Hon. Claiborne Pell, Ranking Minority Member Hon Larry Pressler, Member Hon. Paul Tsongas, Member Project Director: Tom Karas, 6-2014 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: March 1985 Health and Life Sciences Division TECHNOLOGY, PUBLIC POLICY, AND THE CHANGING STRUCTURE OF AMERICAN AGRICULTURE -During the past three decades, technological change and innovation in biological systems, labor-saving mechanization, transportation, and agricultural chemicals have played an important role in increasing agricultural productivity. They have also contributed to changing the very nature of agriculture. Today, farm operators account for only 3 percent of the U.S. population. Twenty percent of all farms ~ow produce 80 percent of the food and fiber in the United States. Increased capital and kinds of skills are needed to sustain farms. Such changes have important implications for society. Technology is only partly responsible for these changes. Public policy has also played a role. However, little is known about which policies in conjunction with technology adoption have speeded up, slowed down, or reversed the trends in structural change. This assessment will focus on future and emerging technologies in other animal, plant, chemical, mechanization, and information areas and their implications for agricultural structure. The possiblity of developing technologies for different kinds of agriculture structures will be explored. The assessment will explore linkages between policy and structure so policymakers can have a clearer understanding of the factors that influence the evolution of the agricultural sector.
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32 -Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman, co-signed by Hon. James H. Scheuer, Chairman, Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Agriculture R~search, and Environment House Committee on Agriculture Hon. Tom Harkin, Chairman, Subcommittee on Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Hon. George E. Brown, Chairman, Subcommittee on Department Operations, Research, and Foreign Agriculture Hon. Charles Whitley, Chairman, Subcommittee on Forests, Family Farms, and Energy Senate Committee on Small Business Hon. Larry Pressler, Chairman, Subcommittee on Small Business: Family Farm Joint Economic Committee Hon. Roger w. Jepsen, Chairman Hon. Lee H. Hamilton, Vice Chairman Hon. James Abdnor, Chairman, Subcommittee on Agriculture Project Director: Mike Phillips, 6-2189 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: April 1985 EVALUATION OF AGENT ORANGE PROTOCOL -As mandated by PL 96-151, reviews epidemiologic studies regarding long-term health effects of veterans exposed to dioxins in Vietnam. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Mandated by PL 96-151. Project Director: Michael Gough, 6-2070 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: Indeterminate STATUS OF BIOMEDICAL RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY FOR TROPICAL DISEASES The assessment will examine the status of biomedical and epidemiological research and related technology development in the area of tropical diseases. The traditional tropical diseases --malaria, schistosomiasis, trypanosomiasis --will be covered, as well as other conditions which, while not confined to the tropics, pose major public health problems in those areas. The natural history, epidemiology, and health effects of each disease will be described and the status of prevention, diagnosis, and treatment assessed. Contributions of the fast-moving fields of immunology and microbiology will be highlighted. The role of development in the prevention and spread of disease will be included. The assessment will focus on the importance of tropical disease research to the U.S. population. It will analyze data on the diseases'
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-33 prevalence, on the burden posed by them, and on sources and levels (both U.S. and foreign) of research funding. The assessment is being designed to define research priorities. It will examine the status of research and technology in the major disease areas, identify areas of promise for continued or increased funding, and present a series of options for making decisions about research funding, technology development and testing, and other policies regarding tropical diseases. In addition, the assessment will develop specific information on Gorgas Memorial Laboratory research areas and accomplishments. Quality and Relevance of Research and Related Activities at Gorgas Memorial Laboratory (Technical Memorandum) (August 1983) -OTA examined the quality and relevance of research at the Gorgas Memorial Laboratory (GML) in tropical public health. GML is the functioning unit of the Gorgas Memorial Institute of Tropical and Preventive Medicine, Inc., a private, non-profit, currently federally funded corporation. The Laboratory is located in Panama, and has operated since 1928. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Appropriations Hon. Mark Hatfield, Chairman Hon. Lowell Weicker, Chairman, Subcommittee on Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education. Project Director: Hellen Gelband, 6-2070 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: August 1984 MEDICAL TECHNOLOGY AND DIAGNOSIS RELATED GROUPS: EVALUATING MEDICARE'S PROSPECTIVE PAYMENT SYSTEM --In order to control the rapidly rising costs of the Medicare program, the Social Security Amendments of 1983 mandated a new Medicare hospital payment system: prospective payment based on Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs). The new system is radically different from previous ones. Plans must be made for a comprehensive evaluation of its effects, and assumptions about its -implications must be explicitly tested. One of the key areas of impact will be on the development and use of medical technology. The OTA study would not be the evaluation itself; rather, it is to be a complete layout of the critical, medical technology related issues that need addressing. It would: 1) identify the range of possible effects related to medical technology and its use; 2) identify evaluation measures; 3) identify ongoing or planned monitoring and evaluation activities; 4) identify shortcomings and gaps in these activities; 5) develop an overall design for evaluation, including timing, methodology, pri9rities, and the role of current or planned efforts. Examples of issues relating to medical technology are: rates of development and adoption of medical technology, changes in quality of care, effects of the DRG system on various types of hospitals, ability of the DRG system to account for severity of illness, whether the DRG system adequately reflects best medical practice, and cost shifting (e.g., from Medicare to other payers).
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34 -Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Finance Hon. Bob Dole, Chairman Hon. Russell B. Long, Ranking Minority Member Senate Special Committee on Aging Hon. John Heinz, Chairman Hon. John Glenn, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Iudith Wagner, 6-2070 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: February 1985 TECHNOLOGY AND INDIAN HEALTH CARE: EFFECTIVENESS, ACCESS, AND EFFICIENCY -Despite some improvement, the health status of American Indians and Alaska Natives remains substantially below that of the general U.S. population. Because of the Federal Government's special responsibilities for the delivery and financing of health care for nearly one million of the 1.5 million Indians in the U.S., Congress continues to be concerned about the quality, appropriateness, accessibility, and financing of such care. This project will be a comprehensive examination of health technologies and services provided to Indians and of whether those technologies and services are appropriate and adequate in view of the health problems of Indians. The assessmment will: 1) analyze the quality and adequacy of data on Indian health status, including trends over time, 2) identify the types and distribution of technologies and services available through the Indian Health Service and other providers, 3) determine the desirable range and methods of delivery of health-related technologies and services, given our conclusions on health status, and compare this range to the current situation, and 4) develop policy options to improve the selection, provision, financing, and delivery of technologies and services to Indian populations. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chairman Hon. Henry A. Waxman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment Senate Select Committee on Indian Affairs Hon. Mark Andrews, Chairman Hon. John Melcher, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Larry Miike, 6-2070 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: December 1985 PHYSICIANS AND MEDICAL TECHNOLOGY: USE, COST, AND PAYMENT METHODS -Physicians directly or indirectly account for an estimated 80 percent of expenditures on medical technologies. Efforts to control the use and cost of medical technology have concentrated on hospitals, as evidenced
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35 by the current approach under Medicare to pay hospitals according to diagnosis related groups (DRGs). But attention is increasingly turning to physicians, because as gatekeepers, they control much of technology use and because technologies may move out of locations where payment is constrained and into physicians' offices and other ambulatory sites. And Medicare expenditures on physician services have been growing more rapidly than hospital care. The assessment will: 1) describe current patterns of physician use of technology, by specialty, location, and payment method; 2) analyze the factors responsible for these patterns and the likely effects of recent changes in hospital payment; 3) identify areas of inefficient or inequitable technology use, especially for Medicare beneficiaries; and 4) develop policy options to improve physicians' use of technologies, with particular attention to payment methods under Medicare. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Select Committee on Aging Hon. John Heinz, Chairman Hon. John Glenn, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Jane Sisk, 6-2070 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: January 1986 ALTERNATIVES TO ANIMAL USE IN TESTING AND EXPERIMENTATION -Approximately 70 million animals are used annually for both toxicity testing and biomedical and behavioral research. In a large percentage of cases, these animals are killed during the course of, or following the completion of, the experimental protocol. Toxicity testing and biomedical and behavioral research are two very distinct disciplines, and animal use and its possible alternatives must be examined in light of their differences. This assessment will examine the current patterns of acquisition and use of animals in the distinctly different disciplines of toxicity testing and biomedical and behavioral research. In addition, the reasibility and cost of developing technologies that could potentially substitute for animals in either of these areas will be evaluated. Since toxicity testing employs about 20 percent of all laboratory animals used annually, OTA will also analyze regulatory testing requirements in both the United States and selected foreign countries to determine whether they can be made more uniform in their acceptance of non-animal test results. Finally, this study will briefly summarize the ethical issues concerning animal use in order to help understand the reasons for the current controversy. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Labor and Hum.an Resources Hon. Orrin Hatch, Chairman
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36 -House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Doug Walgren, Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Research, and Technology Senator Alan Cranston Project Director: Timothy Hart, 6-2282 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: April 1985 REPRODUCTIVE HAZARDS IN THE WORKPLACE Today there are nearly 60,000 chemicals in use in the United States with an additional 700 to 1,000 introduced into the marketplace each year. The production of synthetic chemicals is increasing faster than our knowledge of the relationship between chemical exposures and chemically induced diseases such as cancer and birth defects. Concern over reproductive hazards in the workplace is increasing not only because more chemicals are being produced that can affect the reproductive capacity of men and women but also because more women are entering the workplace. In 1982, there were 48 million women workers; the projected number is 57 million by 1990. The reproductive hazards of some agents, such as smoking, alcohol, anesthetic gases, and lead, are well known. However, the effects of many chemicals are only partially understood from animal studies and many remain to be tested. The available data on the level of reproductive impairment in the population are difficult to interpret because of different definitions of the reproductive endpoint and differences in the ease of ascertaining that endpoint. Two examples are the difficulty of ascertaining the incidence of spontaneous abortions and the problem of measuring the prevalence of birth defects because of differences in definition. A major issue in reproductive hazards in the workplace is the differential treatment accorded males and females. Males, females, and the developing fetus have different susceptibilities and different rights. How to treat female workers has an added dimension because the fetus is biologically dependent on the female. Through legislation, both research and regulatory agencies have been established to ascertain the level of potential hazards, evaluate scientific evidence, and set standards for permissible exposure levels. One important question is the relationship of the standard setting process to the level of scientific knowledge. Another important issue is the relationship between these two and recent and past litigation. This assessment will evaluate the current scientific knowledge base with respect to reproductive hazards in order to outline policy options for the management of reproductive hazards in the workplace.
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-37 Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman House Committee on Agriculture Hon. George E. Brown, Jr., Chairman, Subcommittee on Department Operations, Research, and Foreign Agriculture Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Chairman Project Director: Louise Williams, 6-2082 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: February 1985 Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES AND THE OFFICE -Increasing use of word processing systems, desktop computers, optical disk filing systems, teleconferencing, and other forms of office automation are likely to significantly affect public and private sector office environments. Widespread utilization and integration of information and communications technologies are likely to change the organization of the office, the structure of office occupations (and their inherent skill levels), the location of work, and the numbers of individuals employed. OTA will identify plausible trends in office automation over the next decade, examine the social and economic impacts of its use and analyze the effects of Federal policy options on the further development and use of office technologies in the public and private sectors. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Chairman House Committee on Education and Labor Hon. Carl D. Perkins, Chairman Hon. George Miller, Chairman, Subcommittee on Labor Standards Project Director: Vary Coates, 6-2240 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: April 1985 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY: ADMINISTRATIVE PROCESS AND CIVIL LIBERTIES --The U.S. government, already a major user of computerized information systems and other information technology, is at the threshold of a major transition to the next generation of this technology. For example, the number of federal computer systems is expected to increase from about 18,000 in 1983 to between 300,000 and one million in 1990. Current government use of these technologies has already generated questions about their impacts on government; the
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38 -dramatically increased future use will further affect government administration, provision of public information, civil liberties, and the balance of power among branches and levels of government. This study will evaluate computer and communication technologies relevant to government information systems, profile current and evolving federal systems, and assess the impacts and policy implications of such systems in key areas of concern to Congress. The study will determine, to the extent possible, where and how computerized systems are funaamentally changing the administrative process and/or outstripping the existing framework of legal and procedural safeguards to civil liberties and mechanisms for congressional and judicial oversight. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Hon. William V. Roth, Chairman House Committee on the Judiciary Hon. Robert W. Kastenmeier, Chairman, Subcommittee on Courts, Civil Liberties, and the Administration of Justice Project Director: Fred Wood, 6-2244 Projected Delivery Date to.TAB: September 1985 INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS IN AN AGE OF ELECTRONICS AND INFORMATION -This assessment will identify and analyze trends in the development of the new information technologies to determine those areas where there might be gaps in the laws and practices of intellectual property; it will examine how their widespread deployment and use might alter the value of information and thus affect the future creation, production, distribution, use of, and access to information and knowledge based products; and it will identify and evaluate policy strategies --legal, technological, economic, and social --for addressing intellectual property issues in an age of electronics. Examples of some of the issue areas that might be included for analysis are: 1) the legal and institutional issues resulting from rapid technological change; 2) the technological issues that result from the impact that intellectual property law might have on technology; 3) socio-political issues arising from the public/private aspects of information; 4) the economic issues arising from the enhanced value of information and information services; 5) the international issues resulting from the_ increased flow and value of information across national boundaries; and 6) the ethical issues arising from the conflict between ~ublic laws and private practices. The report should be especially useful to Congress as it seeks to adapt existing intellectual property law, and to create new laws, to provide for the new technologies.
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39 -Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on the Judiciary Hon. Charles McC. Mathias, Chairman, Subcommittee on Patents, Copyrights, and Trademarks House Committee on the Judiciary Hon. Peter Rodino, Chairman Hon. Hamilton Fish, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Robert w. Kastenmeier, Chairman, Subcommittee on Courts, Civil Liberties, and the Administration of Justice Hon. Carlos Moorhead, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Courts, Civil Liberties, and the Administration of Justice Project Director: Linda Garcia, 6-2245 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: September 1985 TECHNOLOGY FOR DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS RESOURCES IN HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTS Most of the U.S. offshore oil and gas resources are expected to be found in: (1) Alaska, and (2) deepwater of the continental shelf and in the Gulf of Mexico Oceanic Basin. Up to onehalf of the undiscovered recoverable hydrocarbons are expected to lie in deepwater between 668 to 12,888 feet. Operating in arctic and subarctic regions requires technologies to withstand ice conditions and high winds and waves. As the petroleum industry moves into hostile environments, questions arise regarding the adequacy of Federal procedures to deal with oil and gas development. These questions include: (1) are procedures adequate for encouraging high-risk development by the industry; (2) can environmental and personnel safety be ensured; (3) is there sufficient information on resource and engineering factors, ice movement and wave and wind conditions to safely administer Federal offshore leasing; (4) are there technological factors that may affect the pace of offshore leasing; (5) are there economic factors that will affect the rate of resource development; and (6) are changes needed in the statutes and regulations to encourage industry's development of offshore resources and protect the environment. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs Hon. Morris K. Udall, Chairman Hon. Jim Weaver, Chairman, Subcommittee on Mining, Forest Management, and Bonneville Power Administration House Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries Hon. Walter B. Jones, Chairman Hon. Norman D'Am.ours, Chairman, Subcommittee on Oceanography Hon.Carroll Hubbard, Jr., Chairman, Subcommittee on Panama Canal/Outer Continental Shelf Project Director: James Curlin, 6-2077 Jrojected Delivery Date to TAB: February 1985
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40 -TECHNOLOGIES FOR DISPOSING OF WASTE IN THE OCEAN -Due to lower disposal costs relative to other alternatives, and increasing public opposition to land-based disposal alternatives, it is likely that pressure to use the ocean for waste disposal will continue or increase. As coastal areas of the United States have become more developed, the amounts of sewage sludge generated from municipal treatment plants and of dredged material from ports and harbors have increased. Disposal of both waste types, especially sewage sludge, at ocean dumpsites has been controversial but also has increased markedly in the last few decades. There also have been proposals to use the oceans for the disposal of different types of nuclear waste and for at-sea incineration of hazardous synthetic organics such as PCB's. The assessment will examine the different technologies used or proposed for disposal of different types of waste in the ocean. Primary emphasis will be placed on sewage sludge, dredged material, low-and high-level radioactive waste, and some industrial wastes that are compatible with ocean disposal. The study will address policy issues related to the role of the oceans within an overall waste management context, alternative strategies for managing these wastes in coastal areas, the pretreatment of wastes prior to disposal, and research and development priorities. The environmental, economic, international, and institutional implications of different policy options will be evaluated. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries Hon. Walter B. Jones, Chairman Hon. Edwin B. Forsythe, then Ranking Minority Member Hon. Mario Biaggi, Chairman, Subcommittee on Merchant Marine Hon. Norman D'Amours, Chairman, Subcommittee on Oceanography House Committee on Public Works and Transporation Hon. James J. Howard, Chairman Hon. Gene Snyder, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Robert A. Roe, Chairman, Subcommittee on Water Resources Hon. Arlan Stangeland, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Water Resources Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Bob Packwood, Chairman Hon. Ernest Hollings, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Bill Barnard, 6-2045 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: October 1986
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-41 SPECIAL RESPONSES AFRICA TOMORROW: TECHNOLOGICAL ALTERNATIVES TO FOOD AID -Sub-Saharan Africa faces severe food problems. This is the only region in the world where per capita food production is declining, despite large increases in foreign aid. The U.S. Agency for International Development alone spends more than $350 million in several programs. Agricultural output is the single most important determinant of economic growth here and its decline underlies problems such as widespread poverty, unemployment, and growing debts. Rapid population growth, other demographic changes, and loss of renewable resources exacerbate these conditions. Experience has shown that technical assistance to the smallest African farmers is key to increasing food production. Few programs have been developed for this group, however, or for the different conditions farmers will face in the future. For example, today's new agricultural technologies will not have substantial effects on food production for 10 to 15 years. The population of Africa is expected to increase from 520 to 850 million people during this period and urbanization will be pronounced. This OTA project will examine demographic trends in Africa over the next 15 years as a basis for understanding future food needs, especially as they relate to the smallest and poorest farmers. It will provide a preliminary analysis of 1) sustainable technologies and technical assistance programs to meet these changing needs, 2) the characteristics of successful technology transfer programs, 3) the extent to which U.S.-funded agricultural assistance exhibits such characteristics, and 4) the potential role of nongovernmental groups. In addition, this special response will help OTA identify key issues and prepare for a follow-on technology assessment. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Select Committee on Hunger Hon. Mickey Leland, Chairman Hon. Marge Roukema, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Phyllis Windle, 6-2265 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: December 1984 ANALYSIS OF THE NUCLEAR WASTE POLICY ACT OF 1982 -This effort is a response to a request for an analysis of the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 from the perspective of the findings of OTA's study of commercial high-level radioactive waste management. This analysis will review the major provisions of the Act, using as a framework the key elements of a comprehensive nuclear waste management policy identified in the Summary of OTA's assessment published in April 1982. It will discuss the implications of the findings of OTA's study for the implementation of the Act, and will identify and discuss those issues that remain to be resolved through the oversight process or subsequent legislation.
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-42 -Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Rules Hon. John Joseph Moakley, Chairman, Subcommittee on Rules of the House Project Director: Tom Cotton, 6-2132 u.s./u.s.s.R. COOPERATION IN SPACE -The purpose of this technical memorandum will be to explore potential areas of cooperation in space, advantages and disadvantages of working together in those areas, history of cooperation, and methods of cooperation as well as areas of research. On May 8, OTA sponsored a workshop of American space scientists who have worked with their Soviet counterparts in space science projects. These scientists provided initial information on the types of projects and areas of research that are promising as areas of exchange. They identified areas in which Soviet research is now ahead of U.S. development, so that there would be clear gains to the U.S. from collaborating in these areas. They also identified barriers to cooperation, and the relative importance of the agreement itself in relation to work between scientists. The summary of the workshop will be presented to the Foreign Relations Committee on June 6 in testimony. In addition to space science, OTA would like to include analysis of space applications cooperation, and some work on the questions of technology transfer. A specific look at the actual gains or losses of the Apollo-Soyuz Test Program would add materially to the value of the study. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Hon. Charles McC. Mathias Hon. Claiborne Pell Hon. Spark Matsunaga Project Director: Phil Chandler, 6-2051 PROSPECTIVE PAYMENT ASSESSMENT COMMISSION The Commission is an independent advisory committee mandated under the "Social Security Amendments of 1983" (Public Law 98-21, Section 601) which reforms the Medicare program payment method. Under the Statute, the OTA Director was charged with selecting the Commission members and completed this task in November 1983. OTA is also required to report annually to Congress on the functioning and progress of the Commission. A fact sheet on the Commission can be found on the last two pages of this section. Project Director: Anne Burns, 6-2070
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-43 -HUMAN GENE THERAPY --This study will investigate the political and legal implications of using recombinant DNA technology to treat human diseases. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Albert Gore, Jr., Chairman, Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight Project Director: Robert Cook-Deegan, 6-2034 PRIVACY OF GENETIC INFORMATION -This study will investigate issues surrounding the increase in the amount of genetic information available about individuals. The central issue described is the balance of the privacy of individuals versus the rights of others (family, insurance companies, employees, government) to that information. Project Director: Robert Cook-Deegan, 6-2034 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE WORKSHOP --A workshop will be held in Fall to explore trends in machine intelligence in application areas such as expert systems and robotics. Workhop participants will explore the long term social, economic, and political implications for the U.S. of widespread use of intelligent computer systems. Project Director: Linda Roberts, 6-2246 PACIFIC BASIN TELECOMMUNICATIONS WORKSHOP --Some important international telecommunication issues will be explored in the contect of policy for the Pacific Basin region. A workshop will be held early in 1985 to explore policy implications in such areas as facility planning and the effects of new satellite and cable services on international communications. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. Timothy Wirth, Chairman, Subcommittee on Telecommunications, Consumer Protection, and Finance Project Director: Chuck Wilk, 6-2252
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44 -The Prospective Payment Assessment Commission Commission Description Composition of the Commission Duties Functioning Funding OTA's Role Appointment of the Commission For Further Information The Commission is an independent advisory committee mandated under the "Social Secuiity Amendments of 1983" (Public Law 98-21. ) which reforms the Medicare program payment method. The Commission will consist of 15 members appointed for 3-year terms. Initial appointments may be for staggered terms. Members of the Commission will have expertise in the provision and financing of health care; in the conduct and interpretation of biomedical, health services, or health economics research: or in the research and development of technological and scientific advances in health care. The Commission makes recommendations to the Secretary of Health and Hu man Services (HHS) concerning the appropriate payment rate under the new ly passed Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs) system for hospital services in Med icare. The Commission also has broad powers to assess medical technology and the appropriateness of medical practice patterns. The Commission is empowered to collect and assess information on hospital costs and productivity, technological advances, and cost effectiveness of hospital services. It is required to use existing information where possible, but is also given authority to carry out research and to award grants and contracts. It is empowered to empioy up to 25 staff members. The bill provides funding for the work of the Commission from the Federal Hos pital Insurance Trust Fund (85 percent) and the Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Fund (15 percent). The bill also provides that the sums neces sary shall be appropriated. The OT A Director has the responsibility to select and appoint the Commission members. OTA is also required to report annually to Congress on the function ing and progress of the Commission. OT A solicited nominations widely. A large number of professional. technical. public. and labor and industry groups were asked for nominations. and a notice was sent to the press. OT A appointed a special panel of outside experts to review the qualifications of nominees and to provide a recommendation to the OT A Director on who should be appointed to the Commission. OTA is developing a formal process for review and selection, including criteria for selection. Nornina~ tions are now closed. More than 400 nominations were received.For information on the Commission. call Clyde J. Behney, Health Program Manager, on 202/226-2070; or write to: U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment. Washington, D.C. 20510. ATTN: Health Program. ( over)
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-45 -Excerpts from the Socia! Security Amendments of 1983 (Public Law 98-21). From title VI. sec. 601: (2) "f!'e Direct~r of th~ Congre_ssiOnal Office of_ Technology_ Asseument (hereinafter in this subsection referred ro as the 'Director and the Office. respecttvely) shall.provide for ~ppo1ntment of a Prospective Payment Assessment Commission (hereinafter ,n this su~o!' referred to as the Com~15510n l to be composed of independent experts appointed by the Director. (6) (Al The CommlJSIOn shall consist of 15 tnd1v1duals. Members of the Commission shall first be appointed no later than April 1. 1984. for ~.term of three years. except that the Director may provide initially for such shorter terms as will insure that (on a continuing basis) the terms of no more than seven members expire in any one year. "(Bl The mem:,ership of the CommisSlon shall provide expertise and experience in the provision and financing.of health care. including physicians and registered professional nurses. employers. third parry payers. individuals skilled in the con duct and interpretation of biomedical. health services. and health economics research. and individuals having expertise in the research and deve!C?pment of technological and scientific advances in health care. The Director shall seek nominations from a wide range of groups. including-"(i) national organizations representing physicians. including medical specialty organizations and registered professional nurses and other skilled health professionals; "'(Iii national organizations representing hospitals. including teaching hospitals; .. (iii) national organizations representing manufacturers of health care products: and "(iv) national organizations representing the business community. health benefit programs. labo.r. and the elderly. COMMISSION MEMBERS The appointees to the Commission are: Stuart H. Altman of Brandeis University, Chairman; Karl D. Bays of the American Hospital Supply Corporation in Evanston; Illinois; Harold A. Cohen of the Maryland Health Services Cost Review Commissio~; John w. Colloton of the University of Iowa Hospitals and Clinics; Yvette Francis of the Sickle Cell Center for Research in Brooklyn, Ne~ York; Sister Sheili-~yne of Mercy Hospital and. Medical Center in Chicago; Barbara J. McNeil of Harvard University Medical School; Richard J. Mellman of the Prudential Insurance Company in Newark, New Jersey; James J. Mongan of the Truman Medical Center in Kansas City, Missouri; John C. Nelson of Salt Lake City, Utah; Ernest W. Sawar~ of the University of Rochester; Steven A. Schroeder of the University of California, san Franc~co; Bert w. Seidman of the American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations in Washington, D.C.; M. Keith Weikel of the Federation of American Hospitals in. Washington, D.C.; and Irwin Wolkstein of Health Policy Alternatives; Inc., in Washington, D.C.
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46 -II. E. New Assessments Approved During the Quarter Formal Assessments o Technologies for Surface Mine Reclamation on Western Federal Lands (June 21, 1984) o Physicians and Medical Technology: Use, Cost, and Payment Methods (June 21, 1984) o Technology and Indian Health Care: Effectiveness, Access, and Efficiency (June 21, 1984) o Technologies for Disposing of Waste in the Ocean (June 21, 1984) o Hazardous Materials Transportation: Technology Issues (June 21, 1984) Special Responses o Agricultural Technology and Food Aid for Africa (June 21, 1984) o Renewing u.s./u.s.s.R. Cooperation in Space (June 21, 1984) Changes in Scope o Technology and Structural Unemployment: Retraining Adult Displaced Workers (June 21, 1984)
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Publication Briefs
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OTA REPORT BRIEF May 1984 Environmental Protection in the Federal Coal Leasing Program The basic framework of the Federal coal leasing program-the legislative mandates and the concept of a tiered structure of land use planning, activity planning, and mine permitting-is still workable and capable of ensuring environmental protection. However, recent policy shifts which accelerated the rate at which tracts were made available for lease, and other changes in the program's regulations-while not producing any evidence of "fatal flaws" that would totally preclude mine development on recently leased tracts-have increased the risk of adverse environmental impacts if some of those tracts are developed. An environmentally (and economically) sound leas ing program is an important part of the Nation's energy future and of public land management policy. Unless reasonable public expectations about "sound ness" are satisfied, however, the likelihood of an ef fective and predictable Federal coal leasing program will be re.duced. In particular, the planning processes during which tracts are continuously evaluated for their acceptability for leasing have become too unpre dictable and unsystematic to assure compliance with the environmental mandate. Further, the high leasing rates of the past 3 years have taxed the resources of the Bureau of Land Man agement (BLM)-already strained by field personnel rotations that have resulted in a loss of "institutional memory" -beyond the point where they could ade quately assess the suitability of the tracts proposed to be offered. As a result, data and analyses have been inadequate for making fully informed decisions about the environmental compatibility of the tracts. Recent actions by the Department of the Interior to review the leasing program are a positive step forward. However, OT A has identified a number of measures that could help ensure environmental protection and complianc:e with the existing statutory mandates, maintain a predictable and stable leasing process, and restore public confidence in the leasing program. These measures are: 1. Reduce and stabilize leasing rates to make the land area to be evaluated in a given period of time more manageable, and allow all participants in leasing, including the industry and affected communities, to plan more effectively. 2. Decentralize decisionmaking authority on tracts and tonnages to be offered and their scheduling to the Regional Coal T earn or BLM State Office level, and reorganize leasing regions to match State boundaries. 3. Improve the effectiveness of public participation in planning and development activities, accommodating the concerns of special groups such as Indian tribes, States and communities, and farmers and ranchers. 4. Complete adequate Resource Management Plans by BLM (and the Forest Service), coordinating more closely with ot}:ier Federal agencies, and with State and local plans to ensure that coal leasing does not under mine the goals of other programs. 5. Improve data and analyses that support planning and leasing decisions. 6. Incorporate guidelines and standards for the ade quacy of pre-sale data and analyses into the program regulations for all stages in the leasing process. 7. Develop a workable threshold concept for estimating cumulative impacts and include it in the reg ulatory requirements for evaluating tract acceptabil ity during land use planning and tract ranking, as well as in the environmental impact statement. 8. Establish policies and procedures for effectively using lease exchanges to protect environmentally sen sitive tracts. 9. Evaluate policies and procedures for leasing split estate coal lands (where the Federal Government does not own or manage the surface). 10. Evaluate procedures for environmental assess ment of Preference Right Lease Applications to deter mine if they provide adequate environmental protec tion and are consistent across regions. Copies of the OTA report, "Environmental Protection in the Federal Coal Leasing Program," are available from the U.S. Government Printing Office. The GPO stock number is 052-003-00954-4; the price is $5.50. Copies of the report for congressional use are available by calling 4-8996. The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress whose basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OTA, U.S. Congress, Washington, D.C. 20510. Phone: 202/224-8996. John H. Gibbons, Director.
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OTA REPORT BRIEF May 1984 Computerized Manufacturing Automation Increased use of computer-based automation in manufacturing will aggravate regional unemployment. It can improve manufacturing productivity, product quality, and working conditions. It might have an enormous long-term impact on the number and kinds of jobs available, but it will not generate massive na tionwide unemployment over the next decade. In the near term, automation's employment effects will be concentrated principally in the East-North central and Mid-Atlantic regions and among certain occupations, for example, metal-working machine operators. Use of automation will gradually alter the mix of occupations and skills needed by manufacturers, and may consequently limit the mobility of manufactur ing employees. In addition, automation equipment producers employ proportionately fewer production workers than do traditional metal-working industries. Many production workers may not have the skills to move from jobs where automation is used to jobs where it is produced. Thus, there is an immediate need for retraining and job counseling geared to affected persons and regions. In the long run, overall demand will rise for engi neers, technicians, maintenance personnel, senior man agers, and technical sales and support staff. Demand will fall for machine operators, laborers, lower and middle managers, and clerical personnel. Use of automation is likely to improve physical working conditions, but its effect on psychological aspects of work will depend on how the technologies are implemented. For example, automation has had negative effects such as decreasing employees' degree of autonomy and creative input. On the other hand, automation could also improve jobs by increasing the variety of tasks and challenges. U.S. exploration of automation's effects on working conditions has barely started. The new types of automation that include the use of computer and communications technologies are be coming increasingly common, but most manufacturers have only begun to explore their potential. The rea sons for this include lack of standard techniques for programing and linking computerized devices, high costs of capital, lack of know-how, and, in particu lar, organizational resistance to change. New approaches to education, training, and career guidance will be needed to accommodate long-term changes in skill requirements. Successful programs have involved close cooperation between educators, industry, labor, and government. A strong foundation of basic reading, science, and mathematics skills appears increasingly important for all occupations, but estimated levels of functional illiteracy suggest that many prospective employees will not have that foundation. The lack of appropriate curricula, shortages of equipment and technical faculty, and other factors sug gest that on the whole, the U.S. instructional system may not now be geared to accommodate potential de mands for skills relevant to an age of programmable automation. In addition, few companies or institutions help workers develop the multiple skills often needed for successful use of programmable automation. There is a wide range of policy options for Congress to consider. Congress could choose to continue cur rent Federal roles. Alternatively, further actions could be taken to: strengthen computerized automation re search and development (especially in areas of generic research, human factors, and standards); raise employ ment levels and facilitate mobility among occupations and jobs; assure that automation enhances working conditions or guards against downgrading of work ing conditions; and make the instructional system more resilient and responsive to demands arising from the spread of automation and the changing occupa tional mix. The overall success of automation-related policy will depend on the health of the economy and the broader context of macroeconomic policy. Whatever the level of Federal involvement, the most effective strategy would balance actions regarding technology development, working conditions, and em ployment and training. The uses and impacts of auto mation are only beginning. It is essential that planning for the future start now. Copies of the OTA report, "Computerized Manufactur ing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Work place," are available from the U.S. Government Printing Of fice. The GPO stock number is 0S2-003-00949-8; the price is $14.00. Copies of the report for congressional use are avail able by calling 4-8996. Summaries of reports are available at no charge from the Office of Technology Assessment. The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress whose basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OTA, U.S. Congress, Washington, D.C. 20510. Phone: 202/224-8996. John H. Gibbons, Director.
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OTA REPORT BRIEF June 1984 Acid Rain and Transported Air Pollutants THE PROBLEM Acid rain, ozone, and fine particles such as airborne sulfate are endangering U.S. resources. These air pol lutants have harmed lakes and streams, lowered crop yields, damaged manmade materials, decreased visi bility, and may be threatening forests and even human health. However, finding an equitable solution is a major policy challenge. Controlling these pollutants will in volve substantial costs-higher electricity rates, and in some cases, fewer jobs for miners of high-sulfur coal and financial strain to utilities and industries. Until recently air pollution was considered to be a local problem. Evidence now indicates that winds carry air pollutants hundreds of miles, often crossing State and national boundaries. For example, sulfur pol lutants that are deposited over most of the Eastern United States, have typically traveled about 200 to 600 miles. These "transported" air pollutants are n?t directly covered by the Clean Air Act, the main Fed eral air quality law. OT A has synthesized what is known about pollutant emissions, movements, and effects, and presents estimates of potential damage to resources if pollutant emissions are not curtailed. In addition, OT A focuses on the public policy implications of the acid rain problem-the geographic distribution of risks and costs, as well as the potential effectiveness of various control options. Acid deposition, commonly called "acid rain," oc curs when sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides-released primarily from burning of fossil fuels-return to the earth as rain, snow, fog, dew, and as dry particles and gases. Acid deposition is high in most of the States east of the Mississippi as far south as Tennessee and North Carolina. Enough acid pollution is deposited throughout this area to harm aquatic life in lakes and streams located in geologically sensitive watersheds. OT A esti mates there are about 3,000 lakes and 20,000 miles of streams, scattered throughout the Eastern United States, that are extremely vulnerable to acid deposi tion or already are acidic. Also, sulfur pollutants accelerate the deterioration of many economically important materials, including iron and steel, zinc, paint, and stone. Sulfate particles in the air are the single greatest factor in reducing vis ibility in the Eastern United States, responsible for about half of the decrease in visibility annually and even more during the summer. Though research on the effects of current levels of airborne sulfates and other fine particles on human health is not yet conclusive, there is a reasonable risk that these pollutants may increase mortality rates by a few percent. Some researchers believe there is a negligible effect while others find _a signi~icant asso ciation, primarily among people with cardiac and respiratory problems. Ozone is produced when nitrogen oxides interact with hydrocarbons. High ozone concentrations extend from the mid-Great Plains States to the East Coast, overlapping much of the region exposed to high levels of acid deposition. Ozone is causing about a 6 to 7 percent loss of U.S. agricultural productivity, overall. Reducing ozone to natural background levels would increase yields of corn and wheat by a few per cent, soybean yields over ten percent and peanut yields by one-fourth. Over the past 20 to 30 years, productivity of sev eral species of trees has decreased in parts of the East ern United States and Europe where high levels of air pollution prevail. Acid deposition, ozone, or a com bination of both, as well as other stresses, such as climate fluctuations and disease, are being investigated as possible contributors to this problem. During 1980, about 27 million tons of sulfur dioxide and 21 million tons of nitrogen oxides were emitted in the United States. Approximately 80 percent of the sulfur dioxide and 65 percent of the nitrogen oxides came from the 31 States bordering on or east of the Mississippi River. If energy use patterns and current laws do not change, both sulfur and nitrogen pollutants will remain high for at least the next half century -long enough to be significant to natural ecosystems. Most of the control programs proposed in recent ses sions of Congress have aimed at reducing sulfur di oxide emissions by 8 million to 10 million tons per year below 1980 levels. This level of reduction is likely to protect many sensitive aquatic resources in most areas. Risk of damage to forests, agriculture, materials and health would be reduced, and visibility would im prove. However, in areas receiving the highest levels of deposition, some damage may still occur. Such programs, however, are not without cost. Electric utilities account for about three-fourths of the sulfur dioxide emitted in the Eastern United States. Therefore, electricity consumers would ultimately pay a large share of the costs of an emissions control program. Electricity rates would increase an average of 2 to S percent-rising as high as 10 to 15 percent in a few Midwestern States under the more stringent pro posals. If restrictions are not placed on control meth ods, about 20,000 to 30,000 jobs could shift from Eastern high-suHur coal producing regions to Eastern and Western regions that mine low-suHur coal. (over)
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CONGRESSIONAL OPTIONS Transported pollutants pose a special problem for policymakers: balancing the concerns of those who bear the risk of damage with those who will pay the costs of control. Scientific uncertainty about many aspects of the problem complicates the decision of whether or when to control. Unfortunately, additional scientific research will not provide an unambiguous answer in the near future, nor will it ever resolve value conflicts. Four approaches for congressional action on acid deposition and other transported air pollutants are dis cussed in the report: Mandating emissions reductions to further con trol the sources of transported pollutants. Liming lakes and streams to mitigate some of the effects of acid deposition. Modifying the current Federal research program so it provides more timely guidance for congres sional decisions. Modifying existing sections of the Oean Air Act to enable the Environmental Protection Agency, States, and countries to more effectively address transported air pollutants. Legislation to address the problem of transported air pollutants could include options from any combina tion of the four approaches. If Congress chooses to further control pollutant emissions, a number of interrelated choices must be made, including which pollutant emissions to reduce, from l'l(hat sources and regions, by how much, and over what time period. Congress must also choose methods to implement the reductions, allocate the costs, and address any undesired secondary conse quences of the emissions controls. Sulfur dioxide would logically be included in any control program, since sulfur compounds contribute twice as much as nitrogen compounds to acidic rainfall in the Eastern United States and are more strongly implicated with adverse effects. Because most of the air pollutants are emitted and deposited within a 20to 30-State area of the Eastern United States-with sensitive resources distributed throughout-any control program must at least encompass this area. For a na tionwide control program, both sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides should be considered. A modest sulfur dioxide control program-eliminat ing 2 million to 5 million tons per year-could be achieved for about $1 billion per year. This would off set expected emissions increases from utility and in dustrial growth, and might decrease emissions by a few million tons by 2000. A large-scale program, reducing emissions to 8 mil lion to 10 million tons below 1980 levels, would cost about $3 billion to $6 billion a year. Such emissions reductions would protect many sensitive resources, though some risk of damage would still be present. If larger reductions in emissions are desired, costs will increase markedly. While the "polluter pays" philosophy is the tradi:. tional approach to environmental regulation, some have suggested that the costs of control be spread to a larger group through such mechanisms as a tax on electricity or emissions. This would lighten the finan cial burden to the heavily industrialized Midwest. To minimize shifts in coal-mining jobs, controls that allow continued use of high-sulfur coal could be subsidized or mandated .. Direct control costs, however, could increase by as much as 25 to SO percent. Copies of the OTA report, "Acid. Rain and Transported Air Pollutants: Implications For Public Policy, are avail able from the U.S. Government Printing Office. The GPO stock number is 052-003-00956-1: the price is $9.S0. Copies of the report For congressional use are available by calling 4--8996. Summaries of reports are available at no charge from the Office of Technology Assessment. The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress whose basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OTA, U.S. Congress, Washington, D.C. 20S10. Phone: 202/224-8996. John H. Gibbons, Director.
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Selected News Clips on OTA Publications and Activities The following is a representative sample (about 6%) of the clippings received during the last quarter. These clippings refer to more than 20 OTA publications. Members of Congress participated in the public release of eight of the ten publica tions issued during the quarter.
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Zip +4
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DAILY HEWS RECORD HEW YORK, N.Y. D. 25,001) tlUN 18 1984 BU.REU.E'S 'APPAREL TECHNOLOGY Electronic Mail's Major Impact 15 Years Away: Congress Tech Unit WASIIINGTON 1FNS1--Whil< electronic mail is a strong com petitor or postal automation. its major impact probably will he delayed al least 10 lo 15 years, the Con_fressional Office of 'f.l-c_hnol~ ssessment reported. Ac cor7ngly. it concluded. "there is a window of opportunity for further use or paper-based auto mation technology" in lhe Postal Service. OTA, assessing USPS's pro gress in moving lo 9-digit Zip Coding through use or single-line Optical Character Headers IOCRs>, took note of industry suggestions that the current "in1 formation revolution" promises lo replace the tradilional paper i media on which information has ; been carried with electronic media. But OTA told the House Post I Office Committee that, while there are electronic, magnetic and mechanical alternatives to i optical character recognition, none are both readable and read [ ily and cheaply available as a substitute. In the final analysis, OTA sug gested that. al least fothe U.S. mail, "ii is as yet difficult to improve on the information car rying ability. read-ability and cost effectiveness of printl~I charackrs on paper. As long as lhili is the case. then optical char.1 . along with adoption or the extended 9-digit Zip Coding for volume mail users, It has developed a national 9-digit Zip Code directory and since October 1983 has been encouraging busi ness mailers to add the four extra digits. When they do so, mailers qual ify for a discount of o. 5 cents per piece on OCR-readable presort first-class mail in batches of 500 or more pieces_ For 9-digit Zip Coded non-presort first-class mail;they receive a discoun_t of O. 9 cents per piece when OCQ.-readable and mailed in batches of at least 250 letters. Use of 9-digit Zip permits USPS to sort letters down to the city block, building, or post office box. By contrast, 5digit coding permits sorting only to the level of the smaller post office zone or a geographical area within a larger post office zone. USPS already has bought 252 OCRs and 248 BCSs in Phase One of the automation procurement at a combined cost of $234 million. It has just received bids on an additional 403 OCRs and will be soliciting bids on an ad ditional 452 BCSs. constituting Phase Two. USPS has allocated $-150.2 million for this procure ment, of which $363 million is for capital exllfndilur" llowever. OTA found thal lht current postal aulomalion strategy. while tL>chnically feasible. is not likely lo achieV<' the greatest projL-cled economic return to USPS when the uncer tainly in Zip usage is taken into account." USPS has based its strategy on achieving !JO per cent expanded Zip Code use among large busi ness mailers within five years. and 'l:l per cent after one year. OTA's own judgment is that the first year-t984-will fall for short or the USPS projections. with further shortfalls thereafter. It recommended that USPS proceed with its Phase Two single-line OCR procurement but simultaneously begin release-loan testing, and related R&D, on_ single -to multi-line conversion, and then convert all sing_le-line OCRs to multi-line as soon as possible, regardless of the level or 9-digit Zip Code ii:1,, ~, U11r11 U:11111 NEW YOlli( NV u. !lln.:i 1a s11:~ 1.~:1\11:1 'il\l lil.11w .. illN l,1 l3ll-4 Bu_t!{(EU.E'$ \ WASHINGTON TALK Briefing __ To Zip or to ~1 TI Poatal Servke la trying to c:aavert _.. or the ma11 to a u1ne4111t ZIP code, linown as ZIP plul 4, but 80 far die Idea baa 111.i about as popular with the public as clop are wltb mail canters. Now comes a atudy by the Office otlechnology ~. an annol Coiithat what the Postal Servk:e really needs Ill not just a looger ZIP code but new malJ.aort. 1118 equipment that can read an entire addrma. Tllo study, to be released today by the a-Post Office Committee, doee not sugest dropping ZIP plul 4, but It RYii that -of the IOnger code la unlikely to .. fast .. predicted and that, ID the meantime, the Poetal Servke could save money by replado8 118 Bhlgle-llne optleal ebar acter -. wblcb read enly the c:lty, state and ZIP aide, with a new ,muJWtne scanner that reads and post office boa lines u well. As sometimes la the case, this new technology WU helped along by CmgresslooaJ politics. Representative Mart14 Frost, Democrat of Texas, asked tor the study In behalf of a constlc-t ClDlllpany, Recopltlon Equipment Inc. of Dallas. The Postal Service appears to be open-minded about the new machines. It bas In vested $80 million In reseaidl and development contracts with the com. pany, and four of the multlllne scanners are operating In posl offices.
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1..,11~ ~::i1n!i:.Uun lJn!.it !'. '-1 r, {' 9-Digit Zip Code Meeting Strong Resistance Bv Michael lsikoff WlidnlOijton Pa&t Stat! Wrt!A!'r The U.S. Postal Service's attempts to encourage use of the ninedigit zip code have met strong resistance from the iJusiness community and only a handful of large mailers have used the system so far, according to two new reports by congres sional auditors. The Postal Service began its "ZIP + 4" program last October, projecting that it would be used on 11 billion pieces of mail accounting for 27 percent of large business mailings by .I the end of 1984. More than 90 percent of all mailings would carry nine digit zips within five years, the service predicted. But as of yesterday, only 54 com panies in the entire country had converted to nine digits, a Postal Service spokesman acknowledged yes terday. Studies by the General Acrount ing Office and tha congressional Office of Technol
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Acid Rain
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U:~r 3hrnrm1l of
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Thursday, June 21, 1984 THE FEDERAL TRIANGLE Curbs on SuHur Dioxide Are Evaluated by OTh The Office of Technology Asse11ment said yesterday that permitting utilities to devise their own strategies to control sulfur dioxide-a key component of acid rain-instead of imposing mandatory technical controls could sa\re hundreds of millions of dollars. The report said utilities in the 31 easternmost states would use 1ow-sulfur coal, either by itself or blended with higher-sulfur coal; coal washing, and wet and dry scrubbers on smokestacks, if left free to reduce emissions the cheapest way possible. Several bills in Congress require mandatory technical controls such as wet scrubbers, ac. cording to the 323-page report, which took four years to prepare. If a stringent control program were enacted, allowing utilities to choose their own controls could cost them as little as $4.2 billion a year, but forcing them to in ; stall stack scrubben and other t technical controls could cost alrmoet $6 billion, the report said. ,1 The report was prepared for r the House Energy and Com~'.merce Committee and the Sent'ate Environment and Public ~'Works Committee. 1" Sulfur dioxide is a principal ~precursor of acid rain, which hnany scientists say is killing ttrees and aquatic life in the flNortheast and Southeast. Coal&~uming utility plants account for ~,bout 70 percent of the nation's f~ulfur dioxide emissions more 26 million tons, of which 22 SIJnilbon tons arises in the 31 t~~tes east of the Mississippi r;River or bordering the river on jthe west. f:... The report also: Repeated OTA's controver-81~ 1982 assessment that air pol )ution could be responsible for 51,000 early_ deaths each year in United States and Canada. Estimated that, in the Northeast, about 30 percent to percent of 5,000 lakes and 10 percent to 20 percent of 65 000 miles of streams could be ex. tremely vulnerable to acidification, even though only a small number so far are known to have deteriorated to the point where fish cannot live. Said ozone probably is re sponsible for a 6 percent to 7 percent shortfall in U.S. agricultural productivity over what it would otherwise be Gave the fnt estimates of the relative importance of faraway versus close-in sulfur dioxide sources. In the Midwest and central Atlantic, 30 percent to 50 percent of acid rain originates more than 300 miles away, while in New York and New England 50 percent to 80 percent of acid rain originates in that range.
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RADIO CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD AVENUE I LIVINGSTON I NEW JERSEY 07039 (20 I) 992 6600 I (2 r 2) 227 5570 I /800) 631 1160 June 23, 1984 5:00-6:00 PM MT National Public Radio All Things Considered Lee Thornton, host: ACCOUNT NUMBER 6 2 9 7 Y There's a new report on acid rain, the pollutant that threatens many North American lakes and forests. The congressional Office of Technolgy __ Assessment says action is needed now, because any delay in pollution control will mean a lot more damage. The report will not please many members of Congress who want to put off action on acid rain, at least, until after the November election. NPR's Daniel Zwerdling reports. Zwerdling: First of all, the report suggests people who talk about postponing acid rain controls for a few more years are fooling themselves. Even if Congress passed a tough acid rain law tomorrow, the report says, it would take almost ten years before power plants cut back dramatically on their sulfur pollution. The Congress will give them that much time to phase in new controls. So, says study Director Bob Friedman, if Congress delays passing an acid rain law for another few years, as President Reagan and many legis lators would like, then it would really be about fifteen more years before the nation reduces the amount of acid rain falling over the eastern part of the nation. And OTA researchers have concluded that the lakes and rivers in certain parts of New England and Appalachia and the Deep South and the Upper Midwest are so vulnerable to acid rain, their chemistry makes their water so fragile that another fifteen years of acid rain fall may cause serious damage. Friedman: Now, ten to fifteen years is a time span that is about equal to the time scale that ecosystems can change, you know, that can be important to natural resources. It is possible that a further resource damage might occur over that ten to fifteen year time-scale. Zwerdling: The report says, the evidence is still too sketchy to predict how all this will effect trees. So far, this is good ammunition for advocates of tough acid
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RADIO CLIPS 75 EAST NOR THFIE/.O AVENUE I LIVINGSTON I NEW JERSEY 07039 (201) 992 6600 I (212) 227 70 I (800) 631 1760 rain controls, but the report has also come up with some findings that will be painful for them to hear. Many advocates of a tough acid rain law have been trying to downplay talks of the economic impact, but OTA report concludes that the program will have severe costs. Now, Congress has been thinking about forcing power plants to control sulfur pollution in two ways. It can either order them to install expensive pollution control devices on their smokestacks, called scrubbers or it can let the power plants cut back on sulfur pollution any way they want, which means many plants will simply stop burning high sulfur coal and start burning low sulfur coal instead. Now, if Congress picks the first way, the pollution control devices, then OTA says it will hike electricity bills in some Midwestern states by at least ten to fifteen percent and that's a lot higher than some other researchers have predicted. Bob Friedman: Friedman: We're talking about average rates. A particular utility may be even higher than that. Some consumers, for example, might see a twenty percent increase, something like that and that is enough to notice. Zwerdling: Of course, Congress could force consumers in other states to help pay to ease the burden which some legislators have suggested. OTA says it will be a lot cheaper to let power plants forget the pollution control devices and burn low sulfur coal instead. But that strategy, says OTA, would put up to thirty thousand miners who now mine high sulfur coal out of work. The report also explores other kinds of air pollution beside acid rain. New evidence for instance concludes that ozone pollution is cutting crop yields and major crops by an average of six percent compared to what they'd be without all that ozone. If society could eliminate ozone pollution in the Midwest, OTA estimates, soy bean yields alone would go up more than ten percent. Carl Baggy, president of the National Coal Association, says he's encouraged by the new OTA report. Baggy says he was a specially interested in sections of the report that concluded that various pollutants such as ozone and tiny particulates seem to play a complex role in affecting how acid rain forms and how it moves through the atmosphere and that tells him, Baggy says, that any programs to cut down on sulfur pollution
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RADIO CLIPS 75 AST NORTHFIELD AVENUE I LIVINGS TON I NEW JERSEY 07039 (201) 992-6600 I (212) 227-5570 I (800) 631 1160 coming out of power plants alone, is a waste of time until Congress also passes new laws to fight ozone and particulates, too. Friedman: I'm hoping that the report will be interpreted as it's intended to show that the oversimplified knee jerk simplistic response that the Senate gave it and that the House and the Waxman/Sikorski Bill and the House would have given it if it had succeeded,has to be relegated to the junk heap and they have to start anew, looking at the entire scope of the problem. Zwerdling: But study Director Bob Friedman says, the evidence clearly shows that cracking down on sulfur pollution alone, right now, will go a long way towards solving the acid rain problem. I am Daniel Zwerdling in Washington.
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RADIO CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM 7S EAST NORTHFIELD AVENUE I LIVINGS TON I NEW .JERSEY 07039 (201) 992-6600 I /212) 227-S570 I (800) 631 1160 June 21, 1984 7:00-7:05 AMMT United Press International News Howard Deikas reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 6 2 9 7 Y Now an update on acid rain. UPI radio's Robert St. George reports this morning that a new study, this one a massive study undertaken by Congress, warns a vast potential for acid rain damage. St. George: A major report to Congress.warns that most states east of the Mississippi River are vulnerable to acid rain damage. The long-awaited study by the congressional Office _9_!_ Technology Assessment estimates that about three thousand lakes and twenty-three thousand miles of streams are now what it calls extremely vulnerable to further acid rain damage. President Reagan has refused to support even a limited air pollution cleanup program aimed at controlling acid rain, arguing more evidence is needed on its precise causes and effects, but congressional study concluded that the atmospheric chemistry creating acid rain is so complex it's unlikely scientists would in the next decade will be able to link sources of the pollution to specific damage points. It concludes that policy decisions to control or not to control such emissions would have to be made without the benefit of such precise information. Robert St. George, Washington. i I'
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JHn i.Lllllrtl'l-. .1JL111rtt.il \OUl~VIL'..L. KY ll ,-,,) JI\ Report advocates uttli~ies he -free to cut emissions ~297v BJIGUY DARST The report also: AIIIHlatN Pnta ..., Repeated the controversial W ASBINGTON Allowing utnl1982 assessment of the technology Ues to devise their own strategies to otnce that sulfates and other fine control sulfur dioxide a key comparticles lo the atmosphere C9uld be ponent of acid ram instead of Imresponsible for 51,000 early deaths pos111g mandatory. controls could eacti year 111 the United States and save hundreds of mlllloils of dollars, caaada. :.:ngresslooat reP'!rt said yester-..., Estimated that about 30 percent The report by tile Office of Tecllto 40 percent of tile 5,000 lakes and no~ Assessment sa@ uUJMes In 10 percent to 20 percent of the t6era1 easteriiiiiost states, if left free 85,000-mtles of streams_in the North to reduce emissions lo the cbeapest east could be extremely winerable way ..-bl would use low_'ftlfur to acldiftcatton, even. thougll only a .,....... ... small number are known to bave decoal. either by itself or blended with tertorated so tar to tile point wbere bigller-sultur coal, coal washing and ftsl1 cannot live. scrubbers on smokestacks. But several bills lo Congress re-..., Said another pollutant formed quire sucb mandatory technical conID the atmosphere ozone prob trols as wet scrubbers, noted tile 323-. ably Is responsible for a 8 percent to page report, wbicb was four years in -1-percent, sbortfall lo-U.S. agri~ltur1 preparaUon. ~!:O~ty over,wllat it would One poln~ of tegislaUon that re-If ozone were at natural concenqutres technical cootrols is to keep tratlons, the report said,_ corn yields utlllUes from tbrowlng miners ln would be 2 percent greater, Wlleat low-sulfur coalfields, sucb as lo Eastyields would be 5 percent bigller, ern Kentueky, out of work by swltcb-soybean yields would lDctease, 13 Ing to. bigll-sulfllr ..coal,.. wllic4 Is pro-percent and peanut yields would In duced, among other places, lo W.estcrease 24 percent. ern Kentueky and southern Indiana. ..., Gave tile first estimates of far --If a stringent program were en-away vs. close-in sulfur-dioxide acted, allowing uuuues to cbose sources. their owncontl'ols-could as little In tile Midwest and Central Atlanas $4.2 bllll~n:. a year, but forcing uc, 30 percent to sopercent of acid them to install stack scrubbers and rain originates more than 300 miles other tecllnical controls could cost away, wbile lo New York and New almost .I_ b~on;-the report said. England, 50 percent to 80 percent of .. Tli.e, report was -prepand for the acid ratn originates more than 300 Bouse Energy and Commerce Commiles away. mlttee and the Senate Environment Just what the so-called "least cost" and Public Worts Committee. opUon would save depends on llow It isn't the ftrst: time low-cost mucll sulfur dioxide must be recleanup altemaUves have. been promoved. posed. -One of many analyses In the tecllTbe Clean Air Alliance. wbicb repnology office report looked at vary resents several railroads and low-sultng levels of reductions that Con fur coal pl'Ciducers, has been pushing gress could require and assumed tile approach for yean. So does a that Congress would limit the presidential acid-rain commission, amount of sulfur that could be emit wllose flDa1 report Is due this sumted per mlllloo BTUs lo tile coal. mer. A 4.8 million-ton reduction would Sulfur dioxide Is a key _component cost $600 mllllon to $900 million If of acid rain, Wllicb many ~tenttsts uUllties were free to choose, but $1.4 say Is ltllling trees and aquatic life ln billion under required_ stack conthe Northeast and Southeast. trols. Coal-burning uUllUes account for The largest emission reduction about 'ZO percent of tile nation's sulconsidered, 11.4 million tons, would tur-dloxlde .pl'Ciductlon, more than 28 cost $4.2 billion to $5 billion under million tons, of Wllich 22 mllllon tons tile free-cllolce opUon, but more are produced lo tile naUon's 31 easthan $5.9 billion lf stack controls tenunost states. ....._~ were required, tile report said.
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The Knoxville News-Sentinel KNOXVILLE,. TENN U. 100,006 SIJN 1'61.,1$1 I ti N _;, \ l lJ ~I :1 !!!/4,B!E: fI ""---~ New Acid Rain Re~,1 urges Prompt Atfacf
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Causes and Environfflental Effects of Acid Rain Transoort & Transformation: Prevailing winds; complex chemistry .. .. ,. .... .. At Risk: Lakes and s1reams, forest, crops, materials, visibility, tunan health Acid continued from page one plants subject to more stringent regulation under the Clean Air Act. Hpw much more damage to the en vironment this will cause is impos sible to determine, OT A says. ; On the other hand, if controls are mandated by Congress, the country would spend $3 billion to $6 bUlion a year -a 5 percent to 10 percent increase in total pollution CQntrol spending. That translates into a 10 percent to 15 percent in ci:ease in monthly electric bills for many Midwestern consumers. '. The coal and electric utility in dustries which would be greatly affected if controls were put on the sulfur emissions of coal-fired power plants, a chief cause of acid rain insist that the country does not yet know enough about acid rain to de cipe competently what to do about it; : And they are angry that they are spending hundreds of millions of d9Jlars on research at the same time tll.e OTA is saying that Congress al ready has enough information on acid rain to decide what to do. : The Environmental Protection Agency, the federal government's lead agency on acid rain, says that it'. will be a couple of years before there's enough information avail aJ;,le to acL A spokesman for the National Clean AirCoalition, the umbrella group for environmentalists who want a 50 percent reduction in sul fur emissions, said the report basi cally supports their position that acid rain is no longer a scientific de bate but now is a public policy issue. The National Coal Association reacted angrily to the repqrt, saying it is premature and overlooks a recent report by 12 federal agencies that says more study is essential. Bill McCollam, president of the Edison Electric Institute, a trade group for utilities, said, "Current knowledge does not support enor mously costly new control pro grams over and above the effective program already in place under the Clean Air Act." The OTA report says Congress could do nothing about acid rain or: it could adopt one or several courses or action: Order utilitres to reduce sulfur emissions. Lime lakes and streams to re duce the effects of acid rain. Modify the federal research program to provide more timely guidance for Congress. Change the Clean Air Act to give the states and EPA authority to curb air pollutants that travel from one region of the country to another. The report warns that 50,000 deaths each year in the United States and Canada may be caused by air pollution. The study concludedthat emis sions coming mainly from coal burning power plants and industries mixed with other airborne pollu tants -could be causing thousands of "premature" deaths. The bipartisan agency, which in vestigates scientific and technical issues for Congress, admitted there is widespread disagreement about the health risk posed by airborne sulfates particles produced by sulfur oxide emissions Such emissions, which are also linked to acid rain, combine with other minute pollution particles in the atmosphere and may be inhaled deeply into people's lungs, worsen ing heart and respiratory problems. "This study concludes that a reasonable estimate or the magni tude of health risk posed by current levels of sulfates and other particu lates (pollution particles) is about 50,000 premature deaths per year in the United States and Canada," the reoort asserted.
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CHICAGO SUN-Tl MES CHICAGO. ILL. D. 651.580 SllN. 677f\RI APR 16 _i 984 /J!uf.fiLL,E?S 1 I t h u s d ts_ 1me t_-e.i~: :Jo1ne 1,tl',,_~yanti-acid~rain club I Suppose the United av DOUG.''-As United States to join in the States agrees to reducesul. __ L worldwide drive. phur emissions by at least LAMONT The Reagan administra30 percent in the nextdee~. tion Has not agreed to join ade, and thus curb the en;; the 30 percent club: the vironmental damage from The U.S. anti-acid rain club. acid rain. Here's the imO(ficg .o( .Ter_l:ioology~_estiRather, it wants to study pact on Illinois: mates that such a cleanup the issue more. It doesn't High-sulphur content will cost between: $2.5 bilwant to ask Congress to coal mines will close in lion and $4.7 billibn a year approve more costly pollusouthern Illinois. between now and 1990. -. tion controls for factories At least 125 miners ':"ill The Canadians: estimate and to force more coal minbe out of work. that they will !have to ers out of work. Downstate counties will spend between $600 million The issue is clear-cut: lose $3 million in wages. and $1 billion each year Clean air for the Midwest, The state will lose over the same period of eastern Canada and the $165,000 in taxes. time. Factories in Ontario, Northeast will put coal Throughout the Mid-Canada, are responsible for miners, steelworkers and west, from southern Ohio, about half of the, acid rain other Midwesterners out of Indiana to western Ken-that falls in tlie United work. If the U.S. joins the tucky, many mines that States. They spew out into anti-acid rain club, our de. produce dirty coal will the air the same sulfur pressed region will fall fur close. Their local econodioxide and other toxic ther behind in lost wages, mies will be devastated. wastes that come from retail sales and taxes. And the steel mills, powAmerican factories. Nevertheless, the Cana-er plants, petrochemical fa. Canada, along with Ausdians are correct on this cilities and tire factories tria, Denmark, West Gerissue. from Akron, Ohio, to Chimany, Finland; France, the It's time the United cago will be forced to shift Netherlands, Noi')Vay, SweStates joins Canada's 30 to low-sulfur Western coal. den and Switzerfand, have percent club and brings an Tliese polluters must invest agreed to reduce sulfur end to acid rain by 1990. in coal washing, fuel blendemissions by at! least 30 Douglas Lamont is an ing, scrubbing, fluidize bed percent in the next decade. international investments combustion and limestone They hope they can get consultant and a contribinjection to bring an end to Luxembourg, Belgium, the uting columnist for the acid rain. United Kingdom and the Sun-Times.
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Coal Leasing
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Ollft J.lutmrnl ut iliu111111rrre N~W YORK. N.Y, 11 ;/ l 11 MAY 31 I 984 BV(f~E,l,U'IS I Congressional Report: S19,~ Down Cnal Leasing b; 1 J../ PrN lnt9fflational Value Policy. The panel made more WASHINGTON -An independent than 30 recommendations on such report to Congress Wednesday called matters as upgrading methods for for leasing of federal coal at a far appraising coal tracts and forcing slower and steadier pace than was fmns to share financial data with the done under former Interior Secretary government. James Watt. Mr. Watt's successor, Interior SecThe study by the Congressional retary William Clark, promised Con-Office~~~l);~,!tt gress l~t week he would not lease wmed that leasing massive amounts e:rcess1ve amounts of government of coal on federal lands in the West coal reserves and favors "smaller significantly increases the environmore frequent" sales than Mr. mental risk from mining activity. Watt. "Lower but steady leasing rates But Mr. Clark declined to set a would make the land area that bas to specific limit on the amount of coal to be evaluated for coal leasing in a be' leased -a position that has met given period of time more manageawith criticism from conservation ble," the report found. groups. This would reduce ''the probability Key recommendations of the Ofthat environmentally sensitive tracts fice of Technology Assessment study would be leased," it stated. Such a include: policy would allow'"industry to plan Improve the effectiveness of confidently for acquisition of coal public participation in planning and reserves (and) the environmental development activities, accomodatcommunity to be confident that leas-ing the concerns of special groups ing decisions will be in accord with such as Indian trbes, states and legislative requirements." farmers and ranchers. The report, "Environmental Pro Establish policies and procetection in the Federal Coal Leasing dures for effectively using lease Program," was ordered by Congress exchanges to protect environmental-last October. It follows a broader, ly sensitive tracts. separate study by a federal coal Conduct "resource management leasing commission that made simi-plans" by the U.S. Forest Service and Jar recommendations in a report to Bureau of Land Management to Congress last February. assure that comprehensive land use Mr. Watt, who resigned late last planning_}s completed in ?,rder to year, pushed for the leasing of billions support 1~formed decisions on the of tons of federal coal as part of a aCCE:ptab1lity of individuals tracts for plan critics labeled a "fire sale" of leasmg. government resources during a peri-od of depressed energy prices. Congress, in response, last year imposed a lengthy moratorium on government coal leasing and created the Commission on Fair Market
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ALBUQUERQUe, N.M. TRIBUNE D. 48,000 MAY 3 O 19B4 Bv_l'{/fEu.E"S Recomrriendation on coal leasing quality could harm San Juan air -l:)07\I TrllNme WuldactN --WASHINGTON Althoug)i conceding it could harm the air quality in the-region, a federal report said today that prompt processing of "preference right" coal lease applications in the San Juan Basin would reduce the need for competitive bidding. The Congressional Office of Technolog Assessment, which prepared e report, said the action 0should be included as an alternative to competitive leasing in regional lease sale environmental impact statements. However, at another point, the office report noted that the second draft environmental impact statement for the San Juan Basin "indicates that development of the preferred leasing alternative could violate air quality standards ... The agency recommended uni form procedures for environmen tal evaluation of preference right lease applications. In preparing the report, the office appeared to be strongly in fluenced by the controversy gener ated by the Bureau of Land Man~ agement's sale of coal leases in the Powder River Basin in 1982 during Interior Secretary James Watt's tenure. At the time, House Democrats charged that the leases were sold at less than fair market value. Their accusation was later sup ported by an independent panel which held that the leasing pro gram had been managed poorly by Watt. Coal leasing has been suspended 11lt ... is very Important to accommodate the environmental and socioeconomic concems of special interest groups such as Indian tribes ... when carrying out lease planning activities and eventual mine_ development. 11 Congressional .report in the San Juan Basin pending an Interior Department revamping of leasing procedures. Jenifer Robison, director of the report, said BLM had more problems collecting adequate data in the basin than in any other leasing region in the West. ''Anything that might give you a leasing problem occurs in the San Juan River Basin," she said. The report recommended that the Navajo tribe and Laguna and Acoma pueblos be given greater participation in decisions involving the leasing program in the San Juan Basin. ''In this context, it is very impor tant to accommodate the environmental and socioeconomic concerns of special interest groups such as Indian tribes ... when carrying out lease planning activities and eventual mine develop ment," it said. Under the Navajo-Hopi Reloca tion Act, the Navajos are entitled to 35,000 acrees in the basin, and therefore have a vested interest in the area. The Navajos are seeking an agreement with Interior on which part of the basin they will receive. All three tribes complained that their feelings hadn't been consui ered in the San Juan Basin decision-making process. Rep. Manuel Lujan, senior Republican on the House Interior Committee, said the tribes should be consulted before decisions are made. Lujan didn't share Office of Technology Assessment's concern over the effects of competitive bidding in the basin. "OTA obviously doesn't want them (mineral leases) up for com petitive bidding," he said. "But there is need for both (including preference right leasing)." Lujan also questioned whether BLM could process all pending preferena! right applications. "Some are located in wilderness and wilderness study areas, and they can't be processed," he said. Preference rights applications in the basin are believed to contain one-half to two-thirds of the surface minable coal. .r
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ENERGY TOl'J/1 y WASHINGTON DC HM!-MONTHL y MAY .30 19R4 Bu~u,s COAL LEASING/ENVIRONMENT Controversial Reagan Administration policies, now being reviewed, have p~obably raised the cost and difficulty of ensuring environmental safeguards un~er the Federal coal leasing programs, but there are no "fatal flaws" that would absolutely preclude mining on recently leased tracts. The Congressional Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) reaches these conclusions in a maJor new !m!I:1S:I:!! "<51S ~E!!!'.f?i<'"pdlfe!es in five Western coal regions. "The basic framework of that program -the legislative mandates and the concept of a tiered structure of land use planning, activity planning and mine permitting --are still workable and capable of ensuring environmental protection," OTA finds. "However, 1982 shifts in the policy underlying the leasing program as evidenced by changes in the implementing regulations --have shaken that consensus. The planning processes during which tracts are continuously evaluated for their acceptability for leasing, legislators were told, "have become too unpredictable and unsystematic to assure compliance with the environmental mandate." OTA pointed to difficulties in the high leasing rates of the past three years, taxing the resources of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to make fully info~i::ned decisions. In addition, the new study states, changes in program regulations in 1982 reduced the effectiveness of environmental protection measures. Under these changes, it's explained, there's no longer a required "threshold" concept for determining whether potential cumulative impacts are severe enough to warrant dropping tracts from further consideration. In addition, most regulatory standards for the adequacy of data and an:vses were eliminated. 'L ', -~ OTA does agree, however, that recent Interior Dept. actions to review the leasing program are a "positive step" toward decreasing environmental risk and regaining the public consensus about the soundness of the program. "It is important," OTA concludes, "that the Dept. of the Interior give priority to establishing an effective, predictable and stable leasing program that reduces the environmental (and economic) risk of leasing decisions, and that allows the industry to plan confidently for acquisition of coal reserves, the environmental community to be confident that leasing decisions will be in accord with legislative requirements, and, most importantly, the owners of the resources the citizens of the United States --to be confident that Federal lands are managed in the Nation's best interests." (Environmental Protection in the Federal Coal Leasing Program, S/N 052-003-00954-4, available at $5.50 from Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing Office, Wash., DC 20402. A summary is available without charge from OTA, Publishing Off., Congress of the US, Wash., DC 20510. Telephone: 202/224-8996.)
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TV CLIPS CATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD LIVINGSTON NEW JERSEY 07039 (201) 992-6600 (800) 631-1160 May 30, 1984 2:30-3:00 PM Financial News Network Market Watch: Commodity Fraud II Scott Ellsworth, co-anchor: ACCOUNT NUMBER 6297 Y An Office of Technology Assessment study says the gov ernment must slow down its coal leasing schedule. The study released to Congress today warns that leasing mAssive ~mounts of coal on federal lands in the west significantly increases the environmental risk for mining activity. The report says lower but steady leasing rates would make the land area more manageable. The report was ordered by Congress last fall-follows a separate study made last February with similar re sults. Congress imposed a lengthy moratorium on goverhment coal leasing last year, after that Secretary James Watt pushed for massive leasing of coal. Video cassettes ire <'!Vailable ,n any format from our affiliate VIDEO MQi-,TORJNG SERVICES OF IWa'ICA, INC., for a per,od of fOJ weel<:s from air dllt11; Call 212-736-S!:>10
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Arms Control Workshop
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NAV~ TIMt:S WASHINGTON, D.C. W. !,0UO MAY !8 1984 Bufl~ Space Rules Seen Defu_sing War With Soviets 'J1 on past U.S. dealings with the Soviet Union! ByLEONAROFAMIGUETTI f1 -~,r .. ~.. the Soviets would agree to "IOllle genera ___ (,.'.i(f ., ', ,;: f"~ nde of behavior" ror ASAT and other space WASHINGTON -International "rulesof-the-road". for llPACC could defuse potai....,.. tially dangenus altmiU-"lhat could"lead ,2 to war Wlhe United Stales and lhe t,, / a.,= operations. Some OTA participants concluded that a .<: set of International rules. simUar In princl :. pie lo those used ror eonduct by natlolis OD the blgh seas, could reduce dangerous situ-Soviet Union. Short of a bu weapons tn space and related military activities there, lhe ndes "would allow each party to continue Its use of space without unnecessarily threating the other," members or a workshop on "Arms CGntrol In Space" llave cuncluded. In addition, the ndes (a Utilization of Space Agreement) could Include related ground activities and create a r-by which "questionable (space) activities could be cllscassed," daus malntatntng an open line.or COlll-"1unicat1ag;.obetw~ ,,. ~. two super powers. 'l1le proceedings el the worbhop, con ducted earlier this year, were released this month by Sen. Larry Pressler (R-S.D.), who supports American-Soviet negotiations as an alternative to the two powers' deploy tng weapons In space. Pressler is chairman of the Senate Arms CGntrol Subcommittee. Douglas Miller, Pressler's legislative director, told Nav, flmes that the senator would rather see the United States and the Soviet Union enter Into some type or agree ment than run aa expensive :space arms race. Miller said that there is growi1ig mterest within the administration for limitations (something short of a "treaty" or "ban") on space weapons, despite the current chilled relationship between the Soviet and American national leadership. The workshop was sponsored by the.!!!!.!: .,. ~;.......,...,_a._ Ecslonal Office of Tec:hno~s-; (The OTA report does. not attribute state-itiidl ia1d tlii meeting to-. 'meats to specific ~.Instead, It con-gether (zt) technical, diplomatic, nu1itary ilenses the viewnf those who participated. and policy experts to discuss antisatellite f Proressor McGeerge Bundy of New York weapons and arms coutrol." The group 1. University served as chairman or the work contained no active duty military leaders, I shcpp, which was organized Into panel al~ an tnvltation,was extended to the. sessions.) administration In hopes that the military :;, While workshop participants had various would be represented, an OT A spokesman f Ideas on how to control or limit arms in said. 1 space, there was a concensus that, based ations in space. "Similar bans could be applied to space activities," the report said .. "However, alnce the 'rules-or-the-road' on the high seas as they currently exist do not keep ships out of lethal range of each other, aim Har rules woaild not be sufficient to ban space mines. New measures would be re quired Ir It were desired to eliminate the threat or space mines by keeping .satellites apart by more than a lethal distance." Nevertheless, with some form or space rules, the report noted, "certain activities which might be provocative could be pro-, lliblted, or they might be required to be i accompanied by an explanation, perhaps tn advance, which had IIOllle basis for betng believed" by the other power. Such rules on space behavior could re duce the "ambiguities" related to space weapons and other &Race systems. They agreed t1!t nll,arms control agree! ment would ellmmate all ASAT capabilities or the United States and Soviet Union, but said that It could do much to keep space peaceful. The report indicated that future U.S. and USSR space activities will have the potential for creating uncertainty and misunderstanding between the two countries. Those in the workshop noted that the two countries will continue to exploit space, and that the activities will be viewed mutually as provocative in most situations.
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l.!-l!r :.\rn1 1jl1rt; l.!...1111n; NEW YUIii{, N.Y. il. 8/3.?'i', SIIN. 1:1 ,O.:J!i-8 j ,, '( ,'/ r\ 10 1984 PLAN FOR WEAPONS IN SPACE IS TOLD General Describes a Timetable for System to Defend U.S. From Missile Attacks By WAYNE BIDDLE Special 10 The New York Times WASHINGTON, May9-Lieut. Gen. James A. Abrahamson of the Air Force today gave the first description of the Reagan Administration's timetable for developing space-based weapons. The plan he outlined included fielding weapons in space to protect strategic missiles instead of populations. In testimony before the House Appro priations Committee's military subcommittee, General Abrahamson, director of the space-based weapons program, presented a four-stage schedule that would use a "transition phase" in the 1990's for "incremental" deployment of defensive weapons "in conjunction with" offensive weaporuJ. It. was the second time this month that a I top Administration official had alluded to the possibility of building relatively small, space-based systems to defend from missile attacks. Such systems are j limited by a 1972 treaty between the United States and the Soviet Union. Last week in a speech before the Na tional Press Club, Secretary of Defense Caspar W. Weinberger said that al though the "ultimate goal" Qf the space-weapons program was to pro vide "thoroughly reliable defenses" for populations, this would "not preclude any intermediate deployment that could provide defense of the offensive deterrent forces." New Short-Tenn Goal Suggested Until recently, the Administration had cast its proposed space-weapons program in terms of someday putting lasers or other directed-energy devices in orbit to protect populations agains~ attacking nuclear missiles. But the new statements by General Abraham, son and Mr. Weinberger suggest a! short-term goal of using such weapons to protect American intercontinentalrange missiles in their silos, a matter, of intense technical and political de-: bate for more than a decade. General Abrahamson told reporters at a Pentagon briefing Tu~y that "my specific charge is to exam~ne the possibility of early deployments m case there is a breakout of the anti-ballistic missile treaty on the part of the Russians." At the House subcommittee session today General Abrahamson gave this breakdown of the Administration's $1.78 billion request in fiscal year 1985 for space-based weapons research: $721 million to study how to target enemy missiles, $489 million for lasers! and other directed-energy devices, $356, million for kinetic-energy devices such as interceptor missiles and hyperve locity guns, $122 million to study how to: protect the system itself from attack and $99 million to study how to control it. $2S_ Billon Estimate General Abrahamson said that even without the initiative announced by President Reagan last year, the Penta gon had planned to spend between $15 billion and $18 billion on space-based weapons in the next fi~e years. P~tagon officials now estimate spending about $26 billion over the same period. "I'm hoping we'll make substantial reductions in the 1985 request,'' said Joseph P. Addabbo, Democrat'Of Queens, the subcommittee chairman. "It's a new start that could wait." Meanwhile, in the Hparate but re lated area of anti-satellite weaponry, the Congressi~ce of Tectm.ology Assessment rel today the pro ceedings of a recent panel study of arms control issues. "Although an arms control treaty 1 could not eliminate every threat to United States assets in space, it could reduce the threat from sophisticated weapons designed specifically to de stroy satellites," the technology office said in a statement released with the study. Verification Problems Cited In a letter to the Congressional leadership on March 31 concerning antisatellite weapons, President Reagan said that "no arrangements or ag~ ments beyond those already governing military activities in outer space have been found to date that are judged to be in the overall interest of the United States and its allies." He cited the problems of verification compliance with any treaty that might attempt to ban such weapons as a primary diplomatic impediment. The technology office panel, head~ by McGeorge Bundy, a_ former p~1i dential adviser on national secunty, consisted of 25 experts from Government academia and industry. Its proceedhlgs were part of a wider _study of military activity in space bemg conducted by the technologr._ office. Referring to antisateuue weaporu; the published proceedings said: "Th U.S. air-launched ASAT weapon nov undergoing testing is clearly techni cally superior to the present generatim of Soviet ground-launched ASAT's.' Nonetheless, the report added, "th( idea that the United States needs ru. ASAT weapon in order to deter enemi ASAT attack was not strongly support: ed" by the panel members. "A ban on testing ASAT weaporu would greatly increase the difficulty ot developing a high-confidence, high; quality" system, the proceedings said0 "P.anelists thought it would be very dW ficult to develop and field a highly capable new system with no detectabk tests.'' Administration officials have main tained that even a minor violation of an antisatellite weapon treaty would hav~ serious consequences for national ses' curity. c
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r May t O, 1984 Defense Daily Page 59 PARTICLE BEAM (Contd.) Despite Edward's remarks that he thinks confidence in this program is important, and Abrahamson's ndmission thAt he is "n little dismayed at some of the critics who say it can't be done," it was evident from this latest congressional encounter that the former Air Force Manned Orbiting Laboratory astronaut and F-16 and Space Shuttle leader may not have experienced the last of his disheartening moments in seeking acceptance and support for his Strategic Defense Initiative program. PRESSLER SAYS OTA REPORT SAYS ASAT BAN VERIFIABLE Sen. Larry Pressler (R.-S.D.) yesterday released a 64-page report by an Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) workshop which he said refuted the Administration's March 31 report that a comprehensive ASAT ban is unverifiable (Defense Daily, April 3 &: 4). In particular, he told a press conference in the Capitol that the experts at the OTA conference say that the current Soviet ASAT, which is launched on a version of the SS-9 ICBM, can be verified with "high confidence.11 The report, "Arms Control in Space," gave however, a somewhat different view, with a number of points concerning ASAT bans agreed to and a number in disagreement. Concerning verification of an ASAT ban, the report said: "The verifiability of an ASAT accord can only be assessed for a specified set of restrictions and measures, and any discussion of the verifiability of a particular provision ought to include consideration of the significance of potential violations of that provision. "The panelists did not evaluate in detail, partly because of security classification restrictions, the verifiability of compliance with the various kinds of arms control agreements that were discussed. It was clear that the standards of verification required for effective ASAT arms control are highly controversial. Panelists agreed, however, that bans on testing would require less extensive verification measures than bans on possession, and that compliance with some ASAT arms control provisions could be verified with high confidence.11 The report also said the panelists agreed that "no arms control agreement can eliminate all antisatellite capability. Some systems not designed to be ASATs (ICBMs, manned spacecraft, etc.) nevertheless have some ASAT potential. making some de facto residual ASAT capability inevitable." ASAT ban supporters said this capability would be minor compared to extensive ASAT or "space mine" effort, while opponents of the ASAT ban said the residual capability might "post a significant threat to U.S. satellites." FMC GETS ORDER FOR 406 INFANTRY FIGHTING VEHICLES. FMC Corporation of San ,Jose, Calif., yesterday received a $289.1 million contract for ~Ot1 i\12 Infantry Fighting Vehicles, 194 M3 Cavalry F,ighting Vehicles, and 78 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) carriers from the Army Tank-Automotive Command. NAVY RECEIVES 11TH LOS ANGELES SUB. The Navy has received its 11th Los Angeles class attack submarine from Newport News Shipbuilding, Salt Lake City (SSN-716). It will be commissioned and will officially enter the fleet May 12th. during ceremonies at the Norfolk Naval Station.
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RADIO CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM 15LASTNORTl-iFIFLOAVENU/_ L!'!!Nr;s:,w "II \IV.II !JS/, /l'()Jq 120!)992-6600/(2/2;2;!7 /() tHU/1,it,_; June 18, 1984 12:00-2:00 PM MT ABC Direction Talkradio Michael Jackson Michael Jackson, host: ACCOUNT NUMBER 6 2 9 7 Y My name is Michael Jackson, and this is Talkradio. Charles DeGaulle once said that since a politician never believes what he says, he is surprised when others believe him. * (Jackson introduces his guest, Senator Allen Cranston, and they take callers, the present caller is Steve.) * Steve: Hello, I have a question on the recent vote of June twelfth on the--relaxing the limits on anti-satellite tests. and I was just curious to know how much of the information presented by the administration backers of the Senate did Senator Cranston feel was truthful or rather slanted towards the point of view that the administration would like the senators to see? I've been following the issue for some time and I'm just curious to know how much of the information, how much did they use in the background paper presented by the Office of Technol2gy Assessment and other sources. Cranston: We had a closed session of the Senate where secret information was revealed and discussed, and between that session and other sessions and information available to senators, I think we had a balanced presentation of the pros-and cons of--preceding with anti-satellite efforts and moving towards war in space or not, and I think senators who choose to be informed could be well informed and were aware of the Office of Technology Assessment and were able to cast an intelligent vote. Jackson: I hope that answers. Thank you for your concern Steve.
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: Star Wars
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FRED KAP:LAN-'Star Wars' in earnest .. WASHINGTON It may .seem odd, but: the officers in charge of President Ronald : Reagan's "Star Wars" program have been hurled into a state of panic by a 29-year old MIT research fellow trained in medieval history and physics. Ashton Carter ts his name, and it's considered something akin to polson weed among those in the Penta. gon whose careers are chained to the fate of the Strategic Defense lnlttattve, the offl-: ctal title gtven the President's ambitions to build weapons that can, in the event of nuclear war, shoot down enemy missiles in outer space before they explode over US: sou. Three months ago, the Office of Tech nology Assessment (OT A), a research branch of Congress, released an 82-page "background paper" written by carter, entitled "Directed Energy Missile Defell8e In Space." The report has set off alarm bells tn Washington circles, for it con cludes, "The prospect that emerging 'Star Wars' technologies, when further devel oped, will provide a perfect or near-perfect defensesystem ... ls so remote that it should not serve as the basis of public ~ pectation or, national policy The report also makes clear that the author Is no mere academic punching out guesswork calculations on a pocket calculator. The tntroductlon states: "This paper is based on full access tb classified information and studies performed for the Executive Branch." carter was a Pentagon systems analyst In the first two years of the Reagan Administration, examining space weapons, tntelllgence technologies, command-con trol-communicatt01111 systems anc:J ballistic missile defense. Hecould not be dis-missed as a meddling amater. Says carter, "The report was a painful one for them.It"s natural they would react defensively. Ninety percent of it is Just_ their desire to. get this monkey off thelr back." In May, Lt. Gen. James Abrahamson, director of the Star Wars program, gave reporters a nine-page statement, which attacked Carter's study for containing "technical errors, unsubstantiated as sumpttons" an,.d other inaccuracies. A few l weeks later, carter iss1:1ed an eight-page rebuttal to Abrahamson's rebuttal. Last month, the Star Wars office released a 68-page rebuttal to the rebuttal to the rebut-_ tal. carter then submitted a OT A yet another rebuttal. ;/2e.-Suvi~ ~io lo-e. 7/8/8F ro~ f>69 Says Joh11Pike, a spaee-warf'are specialist (and star Wars critic) at the Feder ation of American Scientists. "This is go ing to tum into a soap opera. We're going to have a new episode every day." Here's the latest: Inside sources say the Pentagon recently urged OT A to retract Carter's original paper. OTA director John H. Gibbons asked three very senior defense analysts to examine carter's pa per and all the .rebuttals. The three analysts were Glenn Kent, Willlam Perry and Charles Townes. These men are ha~dly doves. Kent is a retired Air Force general who in the mid-19608 wrote some of the most highly regarded analyses of nuclear-defense systems ever conduct ed. Perry was undersecretary of defense for research and engineering in the carter Administration. Townes is a Nobel laure ate-physicist who early in the Reagan Administration led two presidentially ap, polnted panels on how to base the MX missile. The verdict of all three, say several sources, vindicates carter. They each in dependently told Gibbons that' he, should not retract the carter paper as an OTA posttton-. Says Kent, "Sure, Carter's paper has a few errors, but ... If you were to ask me which is more balanced, carter's paper or the [Pentagon] critique, I'd say Carter wins hands down." Carter argues, among other things, that an effective defense against Soviet missiles would require hundreds of battle stations in outer space, which would themselves be vulnerable to attack, and that the Soviets could devise countermeas .ures to foll the defense more cheaply than the United States could build measures to defend against the countermeasures. The Pentagon claims that Carter's numbers and assumptions are wrong, some by a factor of 10 or 100. Carter re sponds that the Pentagon Is exaggerating and that, even If its claims were true, they would not alter his conclusions. But this is much more than an intellectual quarrel. It is, from the Star Wars managers' point of view, a mortal strug gle. They worry that carter's report and its official stai;nptng mtght endanger a stilJ-new, controversial and uncertain en deavor -and thus their own careers as well. Outside the Pentagon, weapons labs and consulting firms with a stake In Star Wars also are concerned. The lengthy re buttal released by the Star Wars office was, In fact. written by Ed Gerry, presi dent of W. J. Schafer & Assocates, a firm that develops and tests laser weapons: Wayne Winton, president of Sparta,_ Inc., which has contracts with the Army and Air Force to analyze laser weapons and other antiballistic-mlsslle systems: and Greg canavan of Los Alamos weapons lab. The Pentagon versus the professor is shaping up to be one of the most intense, 1't arcane, weapons battles o_f the decade. > T
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Dl'.I l'NSF FOCI IS/MICIIAl'I I{ (iORDON Star Warriors Last year, members of the Defensive Technologic.,; Study Team privately voiced their views about the prospect of achieving an effective antiballistic missile (ABM) defense. The team of scientists and weapon specialists, popularly known as the Fletcher Commission arter its chairman. James C Fletcher. former head of the National Aeronautics and Space Adminis tration (NASA). had been given the task of examining ABM technology and laying out a research program for the Pentagon. By dint of their professional commitments to. research in various ABM technologies, the panel supported strong research efforts for President Reagan's .. strateg~c defense initiative." But retired Air Force Maj. G~. John C. Toomay, who helped manage the study. recalls thai the assessments were a shade on the pessimistic side. The panel. tended to be. "'pessimistic whether these technical objectives could be realized but felt that on balance, the research and engineering was well worth doing," Toomay said in an interview. The difference between the group's qualified assessment and its recommendation to proceed with ABM research, he said, was "like the difference between the horse you bet on and the sentimental favorite." Other members offered a different reading. Wallace D. Henderson saw the majority as optimistic but noted there was "a large minority who were skeptical" that some aspects would work, particularly space-based systems. Alexander H. Flax, the former president of the Institute for Defense Analyses who oversaw the panel's group on counter measures and tactics. said. "My view was that there were some promising areas to pursue, which had applications to ABM as well as to other things. and it was not unreasonable to see how far one could go." While underscoring that he was not speaking for the panel as a whole, he said some members were "optimistic in the sense that we believed there was potential to move. I would not interpret that optimism to mean that we will get a definite positive result on a leakproof system that many read into the President's ( March 1983 "Star Wars"] speech." In submitting its report. panel members drafted a conclusion that papered over their differences: "We took an optimistic view of newly emerging technologies and with this viewpoint con cluded that a robust. multitiered ballistic missile defense system 'can eventually be made to work. The ultimate utility, effective ness. cost, complexity and degree of technical risk in this system will depend not only on the technology itself," but on Soviet cooperation and arms control. What makes this recital of history relevant is the emotional nature of the Star Wars debate,. in which the qualified views of Fletcher Commission members have been oversim plilied and given a political spin. In a February address at the Brookings Institution. for example. White House science adviser George A. Keyworth 11 said that the panel had concluded that the "President's objec tive is not an unrealistic go:11. and ... probably could be at tained." And in a May 11 speech at the National Press Club, Defense Secretary Caspar W. Weinberger said that the commis.~ion "found the dream to be indeed possible. after a study of 1316 NATIONAL JOURNAi. 7f-7/)l4 about a year." If Weinberger was referring to Reagan's vision of a world in which nuclear weapons arc .. obsolete," his account of the commission's views is, to put it charitably, simplistic. A more recent exaggeration came in a Pentagon rebuttal to a report on "Directed Energy Missile Defense in Space" that was prepared for Congress's Office of Technology Assessment (OTA). That study, by Ashton B. Carter. a former Pentagon specialist on ABM and space programs and currently a research fellow at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, concluded that the prospect of a perfect or near-perfect defense system "is so remote that it should not serve as the basis of public expectation or national polic.y .... In its rebuttal, the Pentagon reported that the Fletcher Commission had "concluded that effective discrimination of decoys from warheads could be accomplished in mid-course," after the warheads had been released into space as part of a nuclear attack. But that assessment was considerably more optimistic than that of the Fletcher panel, which noted possible technologies for making such discriminations without asserting their feasibility. "The DOD response was kind of foolish," said a commission member. "What it said in effect was that we had all the answers. If we had all the answers, we would not be embarked on a research program." In contrast to such bullish statements, some Pentagon ac counts of the new systems have been more careful, such as testimony by Lt. Gen. James A. Abrahamson, in which the director of the Star Wars program said that research "might" enable the development of defensive systems. Unofficial protestations in behalf of the strategic defense initiative have been wilder. In an ill-informed article, conservative columnists Rowland Evans and Robert Novak quoted a Pentagon memo ostensibly written by William B. Shuler, deputy associate director for military applications at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. which assailed the OTA report as inconsistent with recent scientific thinking. Shuler, who disagrees with some of Carter's calculations on the feasibility of space-based defensive systems, said in an interview that he was not the author of the memo and that, in fact, his judgment of the OTA report was "more supportive." He said he agrees with the gist of Carter's conclusions, including the extreme improbability of a near-perfect defense. That proponents of Reagan's strategic defensive initiative must be sorely tempted to exaggerate its prospects is not hard to understand. The Pentagon has sought a 71 per cent increase in funds for ABM-related programs for fiscal 1985. and popular support for large research budgets cannot be easily sustained by even-handed assessments that the research may not yield major breakthroughs. The Star Wars research program can also be used to partisan advantage to blunt concerns about the absence of any progress in arms control. But experience is likely to show that the cost of overzealous Star War boosterism is loss of the credibility that the program is still striving to achieve. D
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---------------NEWS-'-'-IV~lf~T_VfZ~t __ J_u M_t::'_'J l-t-1_.,_J_'. ~9=-> ~...::.._,_i/_. ___ .. .. _. W capons in space ABM test persuades US Senate Washington LAsT week's interception of one Minuteman missile by another at an altitude of more than 100 miles was a feat of exquisite political timing. The successful test was an nounced by the Department of Defense at the beginning of a week in which the Reagan Administration's plans for testing a new antisatellite (ASAT) weapon and stepping up research on the proposed "star wars" nuclear defence system faced major congressional hurdles. In the event, the Republican-controlled Senate agreed to give the ASA T test an amber light. And Congress now seems certain to give the ad ministration much if not all of the $2,000 million it wants in 1985 for research on ballistic missile defence. Of the two space weapon initiatives, the more pressing from the administration's point of view is the ASAT test. The Air Force has already developed a sophisti cated aircraft-borne satellite interceptor (see Nature 308, 516; 1984), but the House of Representatives voted last month to block tests against targets in space for a year or for as long as the Soviet Union con tinued a moratorium on tests of its own weapons. In both houses, there is strong feeling that talks on an ASA T ban should be resumed, despite the administration's insistence that no such ban could be ade quately verified. And in a piece of deft tim ing of his own, Soviet President Konstantin Chernenko again urged the United States to negotiate an ASA T ban before it was "too late". To discourage the Senate from following the example of the House, President Reagan's Senate allies arranged a closed session in which senators received intelli gence briefings on the state of Soviet ASAT technology. They are said to have been told that, in addition to its well-publicized ASAT interceptor, the Soviet Union now has the means to cripple US satellites with a laser beam from an Earth station or by jamming their radio communications. A day later, the Senate voted by 6 t votes to 28 to allow the ASA T tests to proceed provided only that the President shows that he is trying to negotiate 'the strictest possi ble limitations on antisatellite weapons consistent with national security interests of the United States". The effect of the Senate resolution, which will have to be reconciled with the position of the House in a conference com mittee, is to require some action by the ad ministration that demonstrates a wish to prevent an arms race in space. But it is clear from the mood of the debate that a sym bolic gesture will suffice. As long as Mr Reagan certifies that the ASAT tests are vital to national security, and will not represent an "irreversible" block to negotiation, he will be allowed to test the new weapon. Whether the President will take up the option in a hurry is another matter. The ad ministration is becoming uncomfortably aware of growing public concern about the prospect of an arms race in space. So is the Democratic Party; its national chairman, Mr Charles Manatt, said last week that the presidentialdection in November will give voters a chance to ponder the "frightening choices" entailed in the administration's plans for the militarization of space. Presi dent Reagan is under pressure from his own party to show some flexibility on arms con trol before the election; by the end of last week the administration was already hint ing that it might be willing to discuss some limitations on ASA T development. The short-term ASA T question has not entirely distracted attention from "star wars". While Congress appears still to be willing to underwrite the preliminary research called for in the 1985 budget, organized opposition to the concept is gathering pace. A "national campaign to save the antiballistic missile (ABM) treaty" was launched this week by a committee of senior politicians and scientists, including former President Jimmy Carter and former defence secretary, Robert McNamara. In an opening statement, the committee claimed that the expanded star wars testing programme requested by the administra tion will "soon collide" with the restric tions imposed by the ABM Treaty. Meanwhile, in a bizarre coda to the political debate, the technical debate over the feasibility of the star wars programme is becoming increasingly unfriendly. Deputy Defense Secretary Howard Taft has taken the extraordinary step of asking the Office of Technology Assessment to withdraw a technical memorandum on the subject written by Dr Ashton Carter of the Massa chusetts Institute of Technology (see Nalure309,48S; 1984). Mr Taft claims that the memorandum, which said the prospect of a near-perfect defence against nuclear attack was "remote", had subsequently been criticized on technical grounds by four independent review groups. The Pentagon clearly expects last week's Minuteman interception to cut some ground from under the feet of those who doubt whether a defence against ballistic missiles is feasible. However, most critics of the star wars concept have already acknowledged that the interception of nuclear warheads in midcourse is feasible. Their objection is that a nuclear attack would involve so many missiles and decoys that such defences would be overwhelmed. The Office of Technology Assessment study therefore focused on the prospects for destroying missiles in their boost phase, before they could spawn their mutiple war heads. It concluded that most of the novel technologies required could be countered with relative ease. Peter David
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Wl~1 1 Wurh W lt1m1 NEW YORK. NY D, 910,538 SU,N. 1.52:!. I l!:l SAT. /0?.<16() JUN 13 1984 ~E.l.t.PS """"E-D-IT~O:-::R~IA~-_..,_ r issile Is No Magic Bullet : /!J:be Pentagon's timing is every bit as wondrous mere impact causes destruction. The anti-satellite as its marksmanship. Just as the Senate was about missile being developed by the Air Force works on to debate anti-satellite missiles and consider cutting the same principle the $1.7 billion ,budget for the Star Wars program, It's an ingenious technology, sweet to its inven-!tie Defense Department announced the successful tors and builders, and attractive to all who prefer a 'test of a new space warfare device. A defensive mis-shield to the naked terror of deterrence. B'!lt the idea sile in~, and destroyed a dummy nuclear of ,a shield remains wis&ful, not wise, and the.antt. warhead by deploying a 1Uoot metal spiderweb in satellite device will make the world more danger its path. ',"Weizeally tried to bit a bullet with a bullet ous, not less. and it. worked," an Army official exulted. The Air Force's homing vehicle is far more soThe test Is certainly an acbievem~t, but the In-pbisticated than the erratic anti-satellite missile so ferception has much less relevance to Star Wars far tested by the Russians. Yet once the ,Air Force than to whining money from Congress. Surely the : ., has tested its device, Mos~-will feel compelled t9 Senate, as it scrutinizes the Star Wars venture for 1 improve its own system. The ensuing race will, tlie first time, will kliow better than to be swayed by among other things, make American satellites less a~single shot. secure. That, in turn, could endanger the means to -~ detect and reply to a Soviet attack. Prudently, the : Intercepting one missile with another when Senate has made the Air Force's testing program both are traveling at thousands of feet per second is conditional on efforts tc,linegotiate st;ic:t llmits on indeed like "hitting a bullet with a bullet." But that anti-satellite systems. W feat was first achieved 20 years ago before construeThe Army's homing vehicle, meanwhile, is a ~on of the Safeguard antiballlstic missile system in ; minuscule part of what would be needed for a full. North-Dakota. -. scale defense against Soviet missiles. Will .such a Safeguard was abandoned, after an expenditure defense ever be feasible? The prospect is "so reol morethan $5 billion, as it became clear that an at-mote that it should not serve as the basis of public tacker could easily overwhelm-its "bullets'.' by a expectation or national policy," in the dispassionate shotgun blast. Thequestionmr since has been how verdict of the Congressional Office at Tecbuo to hit a blast with a_shotgun blast. Assessment. Even the Defense Department doesn't The Army is no nearer solving that problem, expect to diclde whether to deploy a Star Wars debut it has made a definite improvement over the fense until 1990. Safepard system~ To compensate for lack of acYet the Administration wants to spend $1.7 bilfuracy, Safeguard's interceptor missiles carried lion on Star Wm research this year. What's the clear warheads. The new interceptor, known as a hurry? The technology to launch a perfect shield homfngvehicle, senses the heat of an incoming war-agaiost enemy missiles isn't even in sight. The only head, and positions itself exactly in a head-on colli-thing promised by a crash program to launch half path. Nq_ explosive is necessary; at that speed, tested ideas is, like Safeguard, another crash. i
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Military Space -June I I, 1984 SDI rebuttal discloses major assumptions The Defense Dept. 's Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) office has compiled the most detailed unclassified analysis yet about the technologies and effectiveness of proposed SDI systems in its rebuttal to a recent Office of Technology Assessment's "background paper" on the initiative (MS 5128). The rebuttal also highlights a surprisingly aggressive and sophisticated approach by SDI manager Lt. Gen. James Abrahamson to criticisms of his program that have captured political support in Congress. OTA's report, drafted by Ashton Carter of Massachusetts Institute of Technology, was released by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in late April. Abrahamson's response, sent recently to select congressional committees, concludes, "so serious are the errors contained within the report that it should not be taken seriously by anyone attempting to understand either the design approach to multi-tiered ballistic missile defense systems or the potential effectiveness of such systems." Highlights of DO D's rebuttal follow: ..,.The SDI office claims Carter's baseline analysis includes a grossly inefficient constellation of space-based defenses that leads to large "absentee ratios" (out of position satellites) and linear dependencies upon system variables. Realistic deployments would have absentee ratios 2-10 times smaller and "square root" dependencies upon system variables. "This error alone" can account for difference factors of 10-30 in the answers proposed by Carter's examples ..,. The OT A study ignored intercepts of post-boost vehicles, concentrating primarily on booster destruction. DOD's rebuttal: Bus tracking and destruction is feasible and is a very critical engagement phase of its own. The bus, moreover, cannot be "responsively hardened" to offset U.S. space defenses due to weight limitations ..,. Carter treated directed-energy weapons (DEW's) simplistically, emphasizing range to target as a criterion rather than time on target. Thus the OT A analysis presumes that laser satellites just beyond a presumed lethality range d_o not participate at all in a defensive battle. This modeling rule leads to very large, inefficient constellations with large absentee ratios. DOD notes, though, that satellites outside the immediate battlespace participate by holding their spots on targets two to four times longer than satellites centered right over ICBM launching areas. This also makes such OTA-presumed Soviet countermeasures as salvo launches from concentrated ICBM deployment zones much easier for a space defense to handle ..,. Carter views present chemical laser programs as too low-powered, restricted to ground testing, too hard to make, easily damaged in a battle environment, and requiring perhaps 10 million kg of laser chemicals. DOD's rebuttal: The Alpha laser for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) chemical space laser,program (Triad) "is being built at the lowest possible power level...to minimize the cost of vacuum pumping facilities for the laser exhaust... while still retaining the physics appropriate for higher power lasers." The 2.4 meter mirror for NASA's new Space Telescope was successfully fabricated to 0.01 micrometers of the desired final shape, while a similar mirror for a chemical laser would only need a 0.12 micrometer final accuracy, according to the report. It is also feasible to hook up multiple lasers by aligning their wavefronts. The SDI office also notes that only 300,000 kg-of laser fuel would be needed for a competent network configuration -30fo of Carter's requirement.
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. ..,. Carter argued that an X-ray laser could not be optically focused using mirrors, and therefore was an inefficient weapon whose beam output would have high divergence angles. DOD's response: "X-ray optics have actually been developed ... which enable one to perform the same sort of optics with X-rays which are done at longer wavelengths." Carter also presumes a geosynchronous constellation of X-ray laser satellites to back up a lower orbit constellation of chemical laser battle stations. But DOD thinks they're unnecessary. Also, Carter proposes an X-ray laser shield deployed from missiles in boost phase that could deflect X-rays, which DOD believes is a nonexistent prospect. ..,. The OT A study identified in-space power generating requirements for free-electron and excimer lasers, neutral particle beams and electromagnetic rail guns as a basic constraint. DOD's response: One shuttle engine produces 10 gigawatts of flow power, which can be conventionally converted to electricity at efficiencies approaching 50%. Thus, power requirements are well in hand ..,. Carter states that 125 megajoules of energy, achievable with a 10-kg projectile, is needed for kinetic-kill of boosters if a defender is using rail guns. DO D's response: Carter is off by a factor of 10-100, since the target's velocity itself provides enough kill energy that only a I -kg projectile is needed. "All the (projectile) has to do is maneuver in front of the booster." ..,. Carter sized his midcourse defense around 28,000 midcourse interceptors and his terminal defense around 1,000 or more sites that he assumed to be on Soviet target lists. But DOD claims space sensors can be used to "precommit" midcourse interceptors (launching them and then assigning them targets in flight), dropping the number needed to 1400-2800. Also, DOD posits 100 defended sites, given our highly concentrated targets and realistic Soviet targeting requirements. Their defense would require only I% of Carter's presumed terminal defense force, given his postulated effectiveness for both boost phase and midcourse defenses.
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f1 Strategic Defense Group Speeds f Organization streamlining, accelerating management and procurement processes, emphasizing industry innovation By Clarence A. Robinson, Jr. Washington-The Strategic Defense Ini tiative Organization is streamlining and accelerating management and procure ment processes for ballistic missile defense technology programs. Emphasis is being placed on industry innovation and on speed in contract completion as well as the quality in contractor performance. This procedure for ballistic missile de fense could lead to major procurement changes in the Defense Dept. with less cumbersome requests for proposal in other technology areas. Lt. Gen. James A. Abrahamson, director, Strategic Defense Initiative Organiza tion, said last week that he will seek to use a blanket determination and finding to cover the ballistic missile technology pro gram in its entirety in contracting with industry as opposed to specific elements. He explained that this would permit the services to reference the blanket determi nation and finding when issuing requests for proposal, greatly reducing the adminis trative process and time. Abrahamson also said he plans to use a "race horse" request for proposal-a 1015-page document that lays out the pro-Defense Dept. Asks Withdrawal of Study Washington-The Defense Dept. is asking Congress to withdraw an Office of Technology Assessment study on directed-energy missile defense on grounds that it is technically flawed. The study by the Office of Technology Assessment was released as a background paper and almost immediately stirred controversy. In letters to House and Senate members last week, Deputy Defense Secretary William Howard Taft, 4th, asked that the report be withdrawn because of serious errors. Four independent groups were asked by the Pentagon to study the report released by the Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee on arms control, oceans, international operations and environment. The independent evaluations of the congressional study "were unanimously critical," according to Taft. The paper was prepared by Ashton B. Carter, and, according to Taft, was not reviewed before release by either the congressional board or advisory council. Members of the board and council took part in the Defense Dept's Defensive Technologies Study Team that prepared the technology roadmap for the Strategic Defense Initiative Program. James C. Fletcher, who headed the strategic defensive study team, according to Taft, "has personally expressed his dismay at both the technical errors and the lack of competent review the report received." Fletcher is a member of the advisory council. In asking that the report be withdrawn, Taft said that central to all the arguments in the report are the analyses of the number of weapons in orbit needed to counter a postulated threat. He added that the report postulated inappropriately short ranges for directed-energy weapons, incorrect calculation of "absentee ratios" (the ratio of the total number of satellites in orbit to the number needed to negate a given threat), poor choice of orbital placement of satellites and false conclusions drawn concerning the promise of new ballistic missile defense technologies. "The combination of these errors lead to an estimate of in-orbit constellation size and weight, wrong by at least a factor of two and in some cases a factor of fifty," according to Taft. Letters from Taft dated June 4 were sent to Rep. Morris K. Udall (D.-Ariz.), chairman of the congressional board for the Office of Technology Assessment, and Sen. Ted Stevens (R.-Alaska), vice chairman. Defense Dept. officials are concerned that the report will impinge adversely on potential Senate amendments that could curtail strategic defense initiatives. At least one probable amendment would demand negotiations on a comprehensive ban on space weapons, including a unilateral ban on space weapons testing during negotiations, and would require the Administration to seek a comprehensive treaty on atl space weapons. The amendment, according to Defense Dept. officials, would gravely damage the U. S. ability to respond to a Soviet Union breakout of the ABM Treaty. It would, as an example, prohibit the Army's homing overlay experiment to demonstrate intercepting an object in space. gram objective. The concept is to solicit industry's approaches to resolving techni cal issues as opposed to detailed specifica tions from the Defense Dept. Once contractors respond to a specific request for proposal, a group will be se lected for parallel competitive work with the competition continuing as long as it is cost-effective, Abrahamson said. Basic plans already have been devel oped by the organization in three of the five principal areas of the strategic defense program, and the other two are in prepa ration. Abrahamson anticipates releasing re quests for proposal to industry this sum mer for overall system-level architecture studies with emphasis on alternatives and tradeoff's. The accelerated procurement process is expected to be used in issuing the requests for proposal. Industry Expertise "We will emphasize the speed of com pletion as well as the quality of the work in source selection," Abrahamson said. He added that the strategic defense organiza .. ton wants to take advantage of expertise in industry, seeking innovative concepts instead of issuing detailed requests for proposal. Since being appointed the director in April, Abrahamson has been trying to stave off significant Congressional funding cuts in the $1.7 billion being sought for Fiscal 1985. Over the next five fiscal years the pro gram is a $26-billion effort. At the same time, he has been organiz ing a management cadre on an interim basis, establishing system studies in each of the five principal areas of defensive technolgies and seeking to sustain the mo mentum of programs already in progress. Technical Areas The Strategic Defense Initiative Program has been divided into technical areas that are: Surveillance, acquisition and track-ing. Directed-energy weapons. Kinetic-energy weapons. Systems analysis and battle manage ment. Support systems. The House has cut $407 million from the Fiscal 1985 strategic defense initiative program, and the Senate is moving toward a $150-million reduction in its authoriza tion markup this week. Of great concern, however, is an antici.e pated amendment on the Senate floor that could terminate the triad laser program 16 Aviation Week & Space Technology, June 11, 1984
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NA l\lRl \'01 .. )UII 7 JUNI IW4 tJ ---------------NEWS-------Sakharov Star wars US academy Sceptical report from OTA cancels visit Washington MOUNTING anxieties about the hcalthof Dr. Andrei Sakharov and his wife Yelena Bon, ncr have forced the US National Academy of Sciences to postpone a planned visit to the Soviet Union next week. Dr Frank Press. president of the National Academy of Sciences. announced last month that he planned to deliver new proposals for resuming formal research links with the Soviet Academy of Sciences. The US academy decided to suspend the links in 1980 as a protest against a Soviet Govern ment decision to condemn Dr Sakharov to internal exile in the town of Oor'kii, some 250 miles cast of Moscow. An academy spokesman said the visit was now in abeyance but the condition of the Sakharovs was being monitored daily. In a telegram sent joindy with the Royal Society of London. the Academic des Sciences de L 'lnstitut de France and the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, the US academy at the end of May called on its Soviet counterpart to "act as effectively as possible to help Academician Sakharov and his wife in getting the health care they require and request". The sudden crisis over the Sakharovs could hardly have come at a worse time for the academy, which had already come under criticism from some quarters for its decision to seek a resumption of tics with the Soviet academy. In an interview on 23 May. for example, Dr George Keyworth, President Reagan's science adviser, said he was "rather surprised" by the decision. Dr Press has consistently refused to pro vide details of the proposals he would be taking to Moscow, but apparently hopes to revive the relationships that existed 20 years ago. when distinguished scientists from both countries took part in exchange programmes. Since the US and Soviet academies established a formal exchange programme 25 years ago. SOO scientists have travelled in each direction, but the volume of exchanges dwindled after the US academy declared a moratorium over the Sakharov affair. During 1983, there were a few individual exchanges; 26 Americans visited the Soviet Union for a total of 38 months while 13 Soviet scientists spent a total of 31 months in the United States. Reaching a new agreement with the Soviet Union may prove difficult even if the political controversy surrounding the Sakharovs abates. Although the US academy is keen to resume links, it wants to change the way Soviet scientists arc selected for visits to the United States. US scientists have often complained that under previous exchange agreements, too many junior scientists were being selected by the Soviet Union for visits to the United States. Peter David Washington THE Reagan Administration has respond ed with unusual ferocity to a report by Con gress's Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) that casts doubt on the ability of the United States to build a space-based "star wars" defence against nuclear auack. Lieutenant General James Abrahamson, former shuttle director and newly appointed head of the star wars initiative. has told Congress that the report contains "technical errors, unsubstantiated assumptions and conclusions that arc in consistent with the body of the report". The OTA study. published at the end of April, is the only detailed technical analysis of the star wars idea yet to be published by a neutral government body with full access to classified research data. Its author, Dr Ashton Caner of the Massachusetts In stitute of Technology, concluded that the prospect of being able to develop a .. ncarperfect" defence against nuclear missiles was so remote that it should not form the basis of public policy. Although they cleared the report for publication, a number of high-ranking defence officials have complained privately that it contained sensitive details of pro gress in research that should not have been disclosed. A Republican congressman, Henry Hyde of Illinois, has threatened to launch an enquiry into OTA's "alleged security breaches" and to propose legisla tion making semi-autonomous bodies like OT A "more accountable' in handling sen sitive information. OT A, however. dismisses the allegations of a possible breach of security. Dr Carter. a former DOD analyst specializing in anti ballistic missile systems. maintains that the report discloses next to nothing about the current state of US research on any of the sensitive technologies. And in a point-by point rebuttal of General Abrahamson's technical criticisms. OT A insisted last week that its report was technically correct. Because they arc hamstrung by secrecy requirements. neither side in the debate has been able 10 substantiate its technical criticisms and rebuttals. Much of General Abrahamson's report, for example, con sists of simple assertions that OT A based its conclusions on outdated information and was therefore 100 pessimistic. In response. OT A has been able 10 say only that it is familiar with all the latest work and that its conclusions arc fair. One of the main technical quarrels is about the use of new fast-burn missiles which, OTA believes. might thwart a star wa.rs defence because their rockets would burn out while they were still in the Earth's atmosphere. The administration's initiative stresses the importance of intercepting missiles during their boost phase. while they can be easily detected by their exhaust plume and before they deploy their multiple warheads. Fast-burn boosters would be vulnerable for a much shorter time and the atmosphere would help to shield them from several futuristic weapons such as neutral particle beams and X-rays. General Abrahamson, however, rejects OTA's view that the deployment of such boosters by the Soviet Union could prove a "potent, even decisive" countermeasure against directed energy weapons. It woukl, he says. take many years and a lot of money for the Soviet Union to deploy a large frac tion of its arsenal on such boosters. Even then, their use would reduce the payload and accuracy of their missiles by between 70 and 90 per cent. OT A counters that "nothing like" a reduction of that magni tude would be necessary: it believes fast burn boosters could be designed 10 deploy heavy payloads accurately enough 10 destroy US missile silos_, and certainly cities. OTA and DOD also disagree about how well lasers, X-rays and particle beams could perform as star weapons. General Abrahamson says OTA underestimates the effective range of chemical lasers and disregards promising (but secret) progress in the range of X-ray lasers and neutral par ticle beams and their ability to penetrate the atmosphere. According to the general, new advances enable a "modest" constellation of beam weapons to "negate most ballistic missile threats". And he dismisses OTA 's argument that satellite battle stations and the other space-based paraphernalia of a star wars system would be extremely vulnerable to attack: he says a number of effective means have been developed to en sure that satellites could survive an attack. General Abrahamson's response to OT A may well have been unusually sharp because it was published before it could be reviewed by the national laboratories most closely involved with star wars research. In subsequent reviews, the general claims. experts at the laboratories found the report full of technical flaws. Even this claim, however, is in dispute: Dr Carter says many scientists al the laboratories support OT A's conclusions. Whatever its merits or defects, the report has made its mark in Congress. The House of Representatives' subcommiucc on inter national security and scientific affairs cited it in a critical report last month on the ad ministration's space arms control policy. The report said Congress had received no "conclusive" evidence that a perfect or near-perfect defence is technically feasible. It added: "As has been the practice be tween the superpowers in the nuclear age, the practice of each side developing a countermeasure to the other side's systems could continue unabated under the US and Soviet strategic defence programmes." Peter David
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....... ----..... -~-..... .,-THE WASHINGTON POST, WEDNESDAY, MAY 16, 1984 _____ ...:__-. ---~----. RowlalJd Evans and Robert Novak: ,~-: Do~'t Give Secrets to a Rogue Elephant Lt. Gen. James A. Abnhamaon. newly ap'I1ie pl here la t.o brine down the Star W111 pro-aaid the tint be knew of the Carter document waa pointed director of ~t Reagan'a -Star gram. 'I'he or-,. "Bacbround Pal.f" by MlT re,, whea be read about it In the newapapem. Demo-Wm" miaaile. defenee p~ could ecarcely be--aearch Aaht.on e.earter (a former Ol'A em-cratic Rep. Morris Udall. now chairman of the rotat,. lieve hfa eyes April 2S _when he read ID that morn-ployee) derided Star Wan iemote that lt 1Pg boud, told ua Carter'a paper never had been ap-ln(a Washington PCllt a ll8WI account that 11-. ahould -* NM the baaia of public expectation or proved becauae_ it waa not an official uaessmen f1ected the congreulonal mon of a rogue e1e-national policy." 'I1ie In-page document also ClOll-Actually, the atudy by the MlT proleaaor waa pbant rampaging at will oa Capitol HIIL. tainlid wllat Pentagan oftidala inalst ill the meet de-cooked up by Sbarfman and hfa CYrA c:ol1eaguea t.o "How the bell dkl thla lVlf pt Into print'r' Abratailed deimptlon IVlf pubUahed of the eo-called Ex. ftncl out more about the Pentagon program. "We hama exploded t.o Mid, Gen. & R. Heibelg m. hia c:alioor" ayiteln for~ an anti-miaaile defense by didn\ bow enough about the aubjec:t t.o diacuN it project~. He referred t.o a publicly i1leaaed harneaaqthunergyof anuclearexpblon. wisely, Sharfman told ua. "We couldn\ even uk document by the congreeaional Office of.TechnoJoo The '1rA'a Sharfman told ua the repod waa ee-the righl ~Backed by~ a11-A11 vrmt (efenaeDeby the Army. Heiberg'a May 1 memorandum to Wm mood, the m'A ataff gave Carter carte pertmentdefined as aec:udty lnf~ Abrahamaon (In anawer to how the hell" auch in-blanche to prowl the ~oetaecret nuclear Jabe. Heiberg'a memoiandum bade t.o Ahrabamaon a formation :got into print) contained thia explana-Not aired for pubrac conaumption waa thia week Peta'..J. manager of of why CYrA dia 1~ohak for aecurity clearance devaatatlnr rlpoete to Carter ID a Pen~ memo the Ol'A'a intemabal, aecurliy cUvialoa. and fl'Olll theP~tagon'a top brua: When I asked Mr. from Dr. W. B. Shuler, a top weapona engineer at quoted Sbufman Iii uying that~ doea not Sharlman why he had notgone to the Offke of the CaJifomJaa Livermore lab: wrbe author has fell ~; 1'-. P.entagon ~. '1W looeena ~tuy of -~ for aecurity dearanc:e. he adopted a pejorati~ a~ litterec! wi_th about IIIUing mi1ab1e to the Soviet Union new uid:'Weaskll'yonewepleaae.'11 nuendo UlCOD811tent wath current thinking m tecbnoqy in_ the race _fer anti-miaaile apace defense In a legal aense, Sharlman was correcL Security the defenae technical community." la Jed conservatM Republican aenatora to requeat rules are mainly preaidential executive ordera and Reagan' attempt to create a workable apace-an FBI at: of aec:urity breachea. have no legal atanding In the legislative branch. based clefenae against an enemy'a nuclear ballistic The iaaue CIODC8l'lll aemi-aut.onomoua But in the broader aenae, aecurity leaka on Capitol miaailea ia not going to fall on a alngle CYrA backorganr,atiorw,. as the Ol'A. that have aprouted in Hill can undermine tht national Interest. ground paper. B11t if Congraa aJ1owa I aemi-au-tbe gmwth cl the ID88IIM bureaucracy. CYrA. much praised in the past for aome cl ita re-tonomous agency to probe at will from whatever 'Ibey aometimea reeemble the fabled rogue elephant, search papen. auppaied to be governed by a con-ideological blaa happens to be ascendant. a worth apewing cut reporla without repnl for aecurity rules greasional board. But Sen. Ted Stevens, Senate Re-while experiment ia threatened with abortion. in order to punue their own policy int.ereata. publican whip and vice chairman of the ~A Board, G...,NnaOn1upC111c110.lnc. wa &M~~ tbsf /WtJw~ I JWJ ?1 1981 In our Mat 16 column, we attnbutecf to W.B. Shuler ot '. Livermore Lab I quotation from Roliert C. Sepucha of w.-s. J, Schafer Aslociatea. Bodi acientiats criticued ID Offtce.i; cl TedmololY Aaaestmeol atucty, of Prelicle.Pt Reapa'r, ''Stir Wld' propoulL We repet tmerror.i .. ;.' O-NIWOlllllfClllcllllt,IM -t A23 ..
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THE W ASIIINGTON POST Space Secrets? Nonsense! Rowland Evans and Robert Novak allege that the congressional Office of Technology Assessment has attacked President Reagan's space-based derense L proposal and published a paper that contains "security information" {"Don't Give Secrets t.o a Rogue FJephant," op-ed, May 161. As members of the congressional board that ovenees the operation of OT,\ we feel that these allegations must be answered. ..,r~ As a support agency of Congress. OTA is prohibited from proposing specific policies for Congress t.o Q follow or t.o awid. lta aole purpose is t.o asaess available t.echnologies and present options to Congres.,. It does not "spew out reports with out regard for security rules in order t.o pur-sue their own policy interests," as Evans and Novak CIOlltend. On the CXlrltrary, OTA rarely initiates assessment.a other than those request.eel by congressional committees or the chainnen and ranking ffli:nority members of such committees; and the assess ment now under way of the Strategic Defense Initiative set forth by the president was undertaken based on such requests. Members of Congress may ask OTA to provide pre liminary information on subjects of interest before a full assessment is completed. Such is the case with Dr. Ashton Carter's background paper on space-based defense systems. It was not the goal of either OTA or Carter to "bring down the Star Wan program," as re ported by Evans and Novak. As a matter or fact, the inside _of the front cover of Carter's background paper ,; bears 1n large letters the statement, "This is an OTA background paper that has neither been reviewed nor approved by the Technology Assessment Board." Dy Wallmey,er OT A provided. this badcground paper t.o membets of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, at their re-quest, for use at a hearing on space-based defenses. Since the release of this document, it ha been misinterpret.ed as a dermitive statement of OTA by both those who op pose Star Wan concept and by those who support it. It astrue that Carter's paper was commissioned by OT A in an attempt t.o learn more. about space-baaed defenses. In March, the OT A board approved an asaessment requested by the House Armed Services Committee and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for a study of New Ballistic Missile Defense Tech nologies. The preface or Carter's paper specifically states that it "will serve as one point of departure" for the full assessment. This paper was never intenHed to be an ob;,ctive analysis of all options for a space-btied defense. This is the purpoae of the full assessment, which will consider many differing options and points of view, including thoee of the Reagan administration. With regard t.o security allegations, OT A staff com. plied with the security procedures established by the Defense Department prior t.o the release of Carter's paper. It is-important t.o note that the Evans and Novak column did not specifically state that security had been breached by OT A or that proper procedures had not been followed, only that some offices in the Pentagon had not seen the paper before its release. This is an internal matter within the Pentagon, not a violation by OT A. The implication that OTA disregards security procedures is without basis in fact. The statement that Congress does not reel bound by Pentagon secrecy reflects the fact that over the years some members or Congress. not OT A, have released classified material. We do not condone the release of classified material for political purposes and will con tinue to ensure that OTA follows established proce dures regarding such material. The idea that OTA is "playing to an emotional anti Star Wars mood" or that it could give anyone "carte blanclie to prowl the most seaet nuclear labs" is absolute nonsense. It is a great disservice to Congress to imply that it should not be allowed to conduct its own impar tial analysis or highly complex and controversial issues. -John D. Dingell and Cooper Evans John D. Dingell is a Democratic representative from Michigan. Cooper Evans is a Republican representative from Iowa.
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Rciigan 'StarWars' effort raises issue of nucleat'stability By Brad Knickerbocker Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor President Reagan y~rday rold. ;-~ri~t!':S:T91:e \ Unit.ed St.at.es Air Foree Academy they are standingon "America's next frontier ..;., the vast frontier of space.'' But military men ~d women looking at the strat.egic possibilities. of space also are standing on the threshold of considerable controversy over the Reagan adminis tration's plans for that frontier. This is the continuing public and political unease over weapons designed to destroy satellites or ptot.ect agaiitst the threat of nuclear missile warheads. ... '.' .. ,,;; Discomfort over such 'ttdvanced ''Star Wais'~ sys tems is reflect.ed in recent congressional action. The House of Representatives by a 57-vote margin has vot.ed to continue a moratorium on the testing of antis.atellite / (ASAT) weapons against targets in s~ The House Anned Services Committee also cut the administra tion's $1.8 billion request for antiballistic'missile're search by $407 million. cc' Lawmakers were reacting to a recent Congressional : Budget Office report on the administration's long-range' plans for strategic defense spending; Annual .funding. would jump nearly fourfold over the neit two years; the CBO report.ad, with $26 billion to be spent over the next six years. And this, the CBO added; may not include re lat.ed expenses tucked. elsewhere in the Pentagon's budget. Members of Congress voting against the administra tion also were swayed by a backgrowid paper prepared for the Office of Techno~ Assessment, a congres sional agency. Written by s ton B. ~of MIT, this report concluded that "the prospect that emerging 'star wars' technologies, when further developeq.. will provide a perfect or near-perfect defense system .. '. is so remote that it should not serve as the basis of public expecta tion or national policy about ballistic missile defense." Aside from concerns about the cost and technical feaC.., Please see STABIUTY next page Tiu! Christian Science 1\lonitor BOSTON, MASS. 0, 144,833 MAY :n_ 1984 I /l!(Blf.EL.U:"S I j STABILI1Y from preceding page sibility of re~ring nuciear weapons "impotent and ob solete," as the President has called for, serious questions have been raised about the administration's intent in seeking such a capability and also abo~t the effect of space weapons on superpower stability. Air Foree Lt. Gen. James A. Abrahamson, director of the new strategic defense initiative organization within the Pentagon, says he recognizes the technical difficulties in developing foolproof missile def ertses. :. "The system must not be regarded as a 'papei:: tiger' by the Soviets if it is (;o serve as an effective deterrent t.o nuclear war," he told a congressional panel recently. "Therefore, its credibility must be based,on a demon strated capability .t.o manage the surveillance, tracking, and intercept actions over the multitiers ofthls complex system." . But General Abrahamson also says that the goal re mains "to provide security for the people of the Unit.ed St.at.es and our allies." And he notes that strategic defenses would not elimi I nate the need for offensive nuclear weapons, at least for the foreseeable future. One who takes sharp exception to this view is Robert M. Bowman, a retired colonel who once headed space ) weapons programs forthe Air Fori=e and now is preside1:; of the Institutefor~pace and .w:ity;~~~-,, .. .. To p~~e an eJtttemely efff?Ctive. _de~~~ve, .. shield [ whije retaining offensi~ weapons .cames. an: ~enormous danger of p'rovokirig war;or causingon~,:bf,accldent, whil~'yielding very little hope of providingsuffi~pro~ t.ection to enable the nation ro survive,'' he argues,:., ;;/ The US has plenty C>f nuclear retaliatory capability. to deter a Soviet fll"St strike, Dr. Bowman sa~ ~thout needing ro violate the Antiballistic Missile(ABM) Treaty by deploying space-based systems. Such a,systems could never be "leak-proof," he maintains, and in conjunction with accurate new offensive weapons like the MX, Per shing II, 'and advanced Trident missiles could be viewed as part of a fU"St strike. Instead, Bowman says, the US should enhance deter and increase stability by providing "point defense" protection for land-based ballistic missiles (the most vuI nerable leg of the strategic triad). The ABM Treaty al. lows the Soviet Union and US to deploy 100 ground based intercept.or missiles to defend against nuclear attack. The Soviet Union has 64 such rockets; the US dis mantled a similar system some years ago.
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_,,.,. _____________________ QPINIQN-------------.;._r,,":..;..':..;..l'_Kc.;.. .;._(c.:.''-::.:.IIH;::__:1.;..1 :.:.:MA:.:.~:...:.:::::'Jll4 star wars unworkable President Reagan's best friends should tell him that his star-wars scenario is an illusion. PRESIDENT Ronald Reagan's plan for a system of "star wars" defences against nuclear attack will not work. The scientific community, which the president asked a little over a year ago to invent the means of rendering nuclear weapons "impotent and obsoiete", knows that it wiil not work, and has said so. The president's advisers, including his science adviser, Dr George Keyworth, know it too, but are afraid to say so. Instead, they have invented a different and more plausible version of what Mr Reagan wants in the hope that nobody will notice the difference. They will of course be found out; the danger is that they might get away with it for long enough to do substantial mischief to the cause of arms control. Revisionism The revisionist version-of the star wars idea goes something like this: yes, it does seem rather difficult to think of a way to defend theUSpeopleagainstanuclearattack,butthereisi:J.oneedtolook for a near-perfect defence right away. As a rust step, the United States might construct a star wars system that could shoot down a fair proportion of Soviet intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) launched against the United States in a nuclear war. Thus the degree of confidence with which the Soviet Union could launch a preemptive attack on US missiles would diminish; since they would have reason to fear American retaliation, deterrence would be strengthened. Later on, perhaps, the defei:J.$ive system. might enfeeble strategic nuclear weapons so much that they would become too unreliable to be used. What is wrong with this argument? Plenty, as it happens. But the first thing to say is that it virtually no relation to what President Reagan actually said in his star wars speech 14 months ago. In that speech, the president did not propose a defensive system as a means of preserving the ability of the United States to retaliate against a Soviet preemptive strike, but as a way to make retaliation unnecessary. Here is what he said. Up until now we have increasingly based our strategy of deterrence upon the ~reat of retaliatic,-i. But what if free people could live secure in the knowledge that their security did not rest upon the threat of instant US retaliation to a Soviet attack; that we could intercept and destroy strategic ballistic missiles before they reached our own soil or that of.our allies? There is nothing ambivalent about that; what the president proposed was a shield through which so few nuclear missiles could leak that the United States would not even have to threaten the Soviet Union with retaliation in the event of a nuclear aitack. Is it feasible? Almost certainiy not, for reasons that have been fairly and lucidly explained in a new report from the Office of Tech nology Assessment The OTA study is especially signifi cant because it was prepared with the benefit of full access tQ classified data by a body which is traditionally careful to avoid partisan stances. Even so; it found the prospect ofa near-perfect defence "so remote that it should not serve as the basis of public expectation or national policy". Pessimism The reasons for pessimism are clear. At least part of a successful defensive array would have to be based in space, where it would itself be hopelessly vulnerable; even if it could somehow be protected, the defensive system would have to shoot at so many boosters, warheads and decoys that its data-processing require ments would be far beyond what is presently imaginable; none of the weapons yet proposed are based on mature technology, whereas countermeasures are; to destroy Soviet missiles before they could deploy their multiple warheads would require such an instant response that a decision to activate the system might have to be taken by machines rather than people. The biggest flaw, however, is that the principal characteristic of nuclear weapons -the ability of tiny objects to cause massive destruction continues to make a nonsense of the notion of a "near-perfect" defence. There are, and there always have been, some respectable arguments for defence. Aft.;r.1111, the difference between an attack in which 250 megatonnes were detonated over the United States and an attack in which only S megatonnes (about one two-thousandth of the Soviet arsenal) got through cannot be ignored. While the former could kill half the population and injure most of the rest, the latter, if cities were preferen tially targeted, could kill several million people and injure 10 million more. The scores of millions saved by the successful inter ception of the 245 megatonnes-would have reason to be grateful, but c_ould hardly regard the destruction of the most great cities and the death of millions of their fellows as a near:-perfect defence. The temptation to retaliate -and the need to deter would remain. So the president's vision of a future in which a leakproof defence makes nuclear weapons obsolete and the threat of retaliation unnecessary is a vision that cannot be given technical expression, The taxpayers of the United States employ people whose job it is to li:eep the president informed about the limits of technology. Dr Keyworth is one of them. Sadly, there is no evidence that he is willing to give Mr Reagan the bad news; indeed, there are dis4uieting signs of a witch hunt against those scientists who have spoken out honestly. Some have been accused of defeatism, others of disloyalty. It is, however, an entirely misguided sense of lo~ that has persuaded the revisionists to fudge the issue by arguing that if "star wars" cannot defend everything they can at least defend our ability to retaliate. That is a travesty of the promise President Reagan held out in his speech on 23 March, and an f argument that will da' him no good politically. Neither Congress nor the general public will be pleased to discover that the pailacea in which they have been asked to invest billions of dollars is intended as the strategic equivalent of a hardened silo. I Dishonesty Tht is why the revisionist argument is dishonest. But is it wise? There is in general something to be said, as Fr~an Dyson argues in his recent book, Weapons and Hope (Harper & Row, New York and London), for the moral superiority of defensive wetpons; Here the arguments for star wars and for civil defence converge; it is worth trying to save the lives of some even if it is not possible to ~ve the lives of all. The snag is that no policy or action in the domain of nuclear weapons takes place in a vacuum: each increases or diminishes the likelihood of a war being fought with nuclear weaporis. There is unfortunately little reason to believe that possession of star wars defences will diminish the likelihood of war. and some reason to believe, it will increase it. That is because neither side, faced with the development of a defensive shield by the other, will acquiesce iil the president's aim of making nuclear weapo~'I "impotent and obsolete". Instel!,d, by deploying a defensive shielctof impressive but imperfect cal"bilities, each side gives the other an extra reason to strike first; the shield will b~ less effective against an unexpected massive first strike than it will against a ragged retaliation by the survivors of an attack. Nor will the shield necessarily save lives. A superpower confronted with a star wars defence could decide to aim a higher proportion of its missiles at cities to preserve its ability to deter. Fmally, the development of a star wars system makes the chances of reducing the number of nuclear weapons increasingly remote; if your enemy has a shield you need more arrows. It is argued by some that even if the defensive notion turns out to be neither feasible nor desirable, there is no harm now in pursuing the research that will keep the United States' options open in the future. The harm, of course, is in allowing the quest for rational progress on arms control to be delayed by the search for technical panaceas; in believing that the next weapon or gadget you invent will make its predecessors redundant. Vide Dr Keyworth testifying on star wars research to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee last month: "While I see absolutely no need to violate any provision of existing treaties while we investigate these options, I am very leery of entangling ourselves in future treatiesuntilweknowmore". D .. -I
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Ml'P. m" w::i:)( r, SPACf 1'iGHNOLOGY NEVf, '; :~~-_N.'1. \.\P.,V 1 qP,.l. '/ Aifni;hfstration Defends ABM Program By Whitt Flora Washinjlton-The Administration pressed the merits of the SDI research program. While the Soviet Union might devel for its antiballistic missile defense research Furthermore, independent authorities op ''fast-burn" boosters for their ballistic program last week with a rebuttal to a have found that the paper contains techni missiles to counter U. S. defensive efforts, critical report and .a defense of the procal errors, unsubstantiated assumptions "fast-burn boosters would result in signifi gram before a key congressional funding and conclusions that are inconsistent with cantly reduced payloads, fewer warheads, panel. the analysis in the body of the report." have less accuracy, and be lesi; capable of The new direcwr of the program, Air The Defense Dept. statement continued: countermeasuring against later phases of Force Lt. Gen. James A. Abrahamson, "It is basic to any assessment of the strate the ballistic missile defense. The reduction has defended the strategic defense initia-gic defense initiative to evaluate it as a of 70-90% in total RV [reentry vehicle] tive (SDI) before the Senate, and the conresearch program exploring technologies payload and greatly reduced decoy paygressionaL~ ut~S!iQ91.gu__.~,''!."1!!!:. that are not intended 10 be exploited for load is equivalent to a 70-90% effective ment (OTA) issud a report saying the many years. Yet the paper challenges the boost-phase defense against current boost st6:bmion research project did not have a SDI based on a capability of current de ers." good chance of producing usable weapons fense technologies to counter offensive ca The OT A report overstated the num( A W&ST Apr. 30, p. 21). pabilities that are at least 20 years in the her of space-based laser weapons needed Earlier. the House Armed Services future. to destroy Soviet ballistic missiles, accordCommittee cut back the Administration's "It also misleads the reader concerning ing to the statement, and the report's budget for start-up funding for the project the goals of the current research program, "choice of laser weapon parameters is by $3 l 7 million from the Fiscal 1985 re-which are to provide future leaders with such that the result is an extremely short quest of $1.7 billion (AW&ST May 7, options for decisions they may have to lethal range. This error causes the number p. 22). make to strengthen deterrence with effec, of laser weapons to be so large as to raise Last week, the Defense Dept. issued a live strategic defenses." questions on the practicality of this ap,1atement on the report that said the OfThe Defense Dept. rebunal also made proach. The fact is that the weapon pa lice of Technology Assc,;sment document these specific points about the Office of rameters would be optimized to result in a actually addresses neither 1he goals nor Technology Assessment report: minimum number of weapons necessary ...._ ---------------------===,,/,-,_I ~\ "-..___..;,., ----1 to provide t~;.:: cov(!ragc an_d target hanCommenting on Che Defense Dept. 's redling capability required." butt al report, Abrahamson '"id the OT A On the OTA's evaluation of neutral report was "not in proper perspective. I particle beam weapons, the Defense Dept. believe that it is possible to build some said: "Contrary to statements in the rething-perhaps a long-rattge system-to port, neutral particle beams with achievgive us enough protection to reduce the able beam energies can penetrate any threat of ICBMs by reducing the value of conceivable ballistic missile target. When offensive we-Jpons. these errors are corrected, a very modest Abrahamson then sent the rebuttal to constellation of such devices could negate the defense subcomminee of the House most ballistic missile threats. This technolAppropriations Committee. This panel ogy is advancing very rapidly and is comhas control over bills that provide funding parable to laser technologies in promise." for the Defense Dept. The OT A report also overstated the In 'a hearing, subcommittee members number of space-based kinetic kill weapclosely ques1ioned Abrahamson about the ons needed for defense, the Defense Dept. costs of both the SDI research effort and said. "When these errors are corrected the the eventual costs of building space-based number of systems required is 4-5 times weapons. less than reflected in the report." ---=------- OT A overstated the effectiveness of \ I possible Soviet counlermeasures, according to the department, and the "Fletcher panel [a presidential advisory board for this program} has identified ways to I counter every countermeasure the offense may choose to make. Whether these de fensive measures are cost-effective or technically feasible is a major research ob jective of the SDI. To provide just one example. the proposed 'booster decoys' which would proliferate targets for a boost phase defense are neither cost-effec tive nor likely." The Defense Dept. rebuttal concluded: "The view expressed in the report that the problems are nearly insurmountable is not supported by the technical data nor by the technical experts most familiar with the technologies involved.'' The subcommittee's chairman, Rep. Jo seph P. Addabbo (D.-N. Y.), said he had heard es1imates that a full-scale space based weapons system ~ould cosl from $200 billion 10 $1 trillion, bul Abraham son said it was not possible to give a linal cost estimate. Addabbo asked about the start-up costs: we spend the dollars. okay'! What will that buy us? "Basic research," Abrahamson replied. '"Twenty-five billion dollars is not buy ing a system, then," Addabbo said. Rep. John P. Murtha (D.-Pa.) suggest ed lhut the Administration consider stretching out its five-year request for $26 billion in SDI research funds. adding: "I see a real problem next year with the request of $3. 7 billion. Maybe you ought to consider stretching out the money over to yeurs. You could haw tremendous funding probkms down the road. If' we change presidents, this whole program could change dramatically." Rep. Norman D. Dicks (D.-Wash.) was also critical of the funding for the pro gram, and said: "We see big problems in conventional weaponry that are not bemg met." Ahr.ahumson also deal"! with another i!'t.sue thar had caused controversy in Senati: hearings: whether a mechanized system would trigger and operate a space-based defense because there would nm be time for a president to order a defense into action. Abrahamson said such a system would have built-in safeguards to keep it from reacting when the Soviets were merely testing a missile or launching a satellite. "There are ways to have reasonable human intervention in a system. Let's let people know that it's not inevitable to turn it over to a machine ... The House is set to vote in the next fo" weeks on a bill authorizing funding for the program, and the subcommittee will begin work on another measure to actually approve spending _the money. D ...--
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IN THE NATION T-wo Spacey Schemes By Tom Wicker ,What is this Congressional Office of Mr. carter called the result "a conTechnology Assessment? And where sensus among informed members of does it get off with these contradicthe defense technical community" ti.ons of President Reagan's expertise that a successful missile defense was on weapons? "so remote that it should not serve as Take the ASAT, the anti-satellite the basis of public expectation or na weapon that Mr. Reagan says we have tional policy." And such a defense to build because the Russkies are would be susceptible to countermeas atiead of us in this field, and because ures that would permit the Russians we, wouldn't be able to catch them "to retain a degreee of penetration cl\eating on a treaty to ban ,;uch weapwith their future missile arsenal." ons. Not true, says the upstart O.T.A. Richard D. DeLauer, the Under 4nd this same outfit had the nerve to Secretary of Defense for research, teJI Congress that Mr. Reagan's "Star outlined Administration plans to WMS" scheme to knock down incomspend $25 billion in five years to find i.gg_missiles looks like a pipe dream. out "whether and how to proceed" Keep that up and people might get with this scheme. That's $25 billion idea the President doesn't know merely to find out if Star Wars can w.htlt he's talking about. work -surely the costliest prelimi, O.T.A. was set up by Congress to nary inquiry in history; and Mr. gtye nonpartisan advice to legislators DeLauer conceded that no one could oa,_ new scientific and technological now say how much it might cost actu projects. In the case of ASAT's, the ally to build such a system. O,T.A. report was developed by a Evenassumingsomedegreeoftech panel of 25 experts from Government, nicaleffectiveness, would a Star Wars iit~try and the academic world, defense be desirable? Gen. James A. headed by McGeorge Bundy, forAbrahamson, the director of the merlythenationalsecurityadviserto project, told Congress that the U.S. l;l).'esidents Kennedy and .Johnson. and the Soviet Union would have to -Mr. Reagan and his military advisagree to limit their offensive missiles, ers contend that the Soviet Union has if such a defensive system were not to operational ASAT and is ahead of be overwhelmed. He based this star tke U.S. in anti-satellite technology. tling qualification on the assumption Ip.a letter to Congress on March 31, that the Russians would also deploy a the President rejected the idea of nedefensive system; then, he said, Mos gQtiating an ASAT ban with the Soviet cow and Washington would see the fu l;Jqion, on grounds that such a treaty tility of building more missiles. COllld not be verified. Skeptical senators, including Sam ,.Jilow, however, the O.T.A. panel has Nunn of Georgia, an authority on cenfirmed what several nongovemmilitary questions, pointed out that ment groups have argued -that the each side, watching the other building A,rperican anti-satellite weapon now a defensive system, would be far being tested "is clearly technically more likely to build more, not fewer, 1t1,tperior to the present generation of offensive missiles. Even General Soviet ground-launched ASAT's." So Abrahamson conceded that that if-.the U.S. is not lagging behind the would be the first reaction of "a pruSQV'iet Union in such weaponry, a dent military planner." treaty banning ASAT's would not Thus, proceeding with Star Wars, teaye the U.S. at a disadvantage, as even if it promised some technical ef-. tJt~ Administration contends. fectiveness, actually would be one .As for verification, "panelists more chapter in the same old story ~ght it would be very difficult to whatever weapons one side develops, develop and field a highly capable the other matches or tops, escalating new system with no detectable tests." the arms race to ever higher levels. Thus, a treaty banning the testing of And even when defensive systems ASA T's would be verifiable, and in were in place, a Soviet-American arms the panel's view "would greatly incontrol agreement would be required crease the difficulty of developing a to allow the new technology to work. high-confidence, high-quality" ASAT Why not, a prudent military planner 'bf either side. But the Administration ought to inquire, just go for the arms wants the weapon, not the treaty. control agreement now-particularly 'riie o.T.A. report on "Star Wars" sinceproceedingwithStarWarswould w~ a background paper for a put an end to the ABM treaty, the most TSriiader study, written by Ashton Carsuccessful arms accord yet reached? tet'"of the Massachusetts Institute of Where's the sense in sacri!icing that Technology. He had access to the treaty in order to build a dubiously ef classified studies prepared for Mr. fective missile defense, oniy to have to Reagan, and an O.T.A. spokesman seek another treaty in some vague fu-' said his paper had been reviewed by a ture of huge new costs and vast new number of outside_ experts. weapons deployment?
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f--------Essay~-----~ The Case Against Star Wars Weapons T he esoteric yet immensely important national debate over how to avoid nuclear war has suddenly been focused like a laser beam on one issue: Should the U.S. develop and deploy a space-based system for defending itself against Soviet missiles so as to deter Moscow from ever contemplating such an attack? Slightly more than a year ago, President Reagan surprised the nation, and many experts in his own Government as well, by calling for an all-out program, along the lines of the Manhattan Project, which developed the atom bomb, to build a defense sys tem in space. He envisioned a network of orbiting sensors that would detect a Soviet attack as soon as it was launched,.then trigger giant remote-control ray guns that would destroy attacking rockets or their warheads before they could do any damage. The idea had been planted in Reagan's mind by his friend and frequent adviser Edward Teller, the Hungarian-born superhawk, often de scribed as the father of the hydrogen bomb, whose bold and controversial ideas have occasionally led some of his fellow physicists to moan, "E.T., go home." Tell er's brainstorm became Reagan's dream, and the dream became national policy. In a speech in March 1983, the President asked, "What if free people could live se cure in the knowledge that ... we could intercept and destroy strategic ballistic missiles before they reached our own soil or that of our allies?" In December, with no fanfare, Reagan approved $26 billion over the next five years for research into a Strategic Defense Initiative. Last week the program came under close scrutiny by two high-level groups on Capitol Hill, and it was found wanting. The Congressional Office of Technology Assessment released an extremely nega tive report warning that a comprehensive antiballistic-missile system was so un promising "that it should not serve as the basis of public expectation or national policy." At the same time, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee subjected five Admin istration witnesses, including the President's science adviser, George Keyworth, and the newly designated director of the pro gram, Lieut. General James Abrahamson, to withering skepti cism. Among the doubters were moderates like John Glenn as well as liberals like Massachusetts Democrat Paul Tsongas. Lest there be any doubt that the issue will figure in the presi dential campaign, Democratic Front Runner Walter Mondale last week denounced the plan as "dangerously destabilizing" and called for a freeze on military uses of space. The Democrats be lieve that the President's embrace of antimissile weapons will fan fears that he is a trigger-happy nuclear cowboy. That charge is not only unfair-it misses the point that there are substantially more legitimate doubts about the wisdom of this policy in particular and about the President's approach to complicated national security issues in general. Reagan has of ten been drawn instinctively to simplistic, gimmicky solutions to problems that entail layers upon layers of historical background and technical complexity. Reagan's early fascination with sup ply-side economics in its least sophisticated form and his advo cacy of a two-China policy are but two examples. He abandoned both during the crash course in realism that comes with being President. But he has clung more stubbornly to the idea of space-based defenses. He has done so for reasons that are as straightforward and sincere as they are wrongheaded. In his March 1983 speech unveiling the scheme, he said he hoped the U.S. could erect an umbrella of impenetrable antimis sile defenses over itself and its allies. By thus rendering an at tacker's weapons impotent, the U.S. would not have to count on ballistic missiles and bombers to deter Soviet aggression or to re taliate against an attack. No longer would "crisis stability" be tween the superpowers have to be enshrined in a suicide pact. In Reagan's view, the scenario for World War III would be come more like an arcade video game and less like a prime-time apocalypse. Instead of mushroom clouds springing up from charred landscapes and families being vaporized in their back yards or dying slow deaths from radiation sickness, the imagery would feature unmanned enemy projectiles being i.apped and disintegrating high above the earth; the planet and its population would remain out of harm's way. What is more, the U.S. would be able to protect itself without the threat of com mitting mass murder. Like Darth Vader spinning helplessly but harmlessly away from the doomed Death Star in his crip pled TIE Fighter, the Soviets would be mightily frustrated in their losing battle with American ingenuity, but they would not be incinerated. Best of all, the Soviets would probably not do anything as foolish as start a fight. If they were to do so, however, they would probably not come back to fight another day: realizing the futility of their earthbased spears against the new, space-based American shield, the Soviets might set down, or at least phase out, their missiles and other weapons of aggression. Follow ing the American example, they too would shift to defense rather than retaliation. The world would be a safer place. Reagan has even suggested that the U.S. might some day share its defensive technology with the Soviet Union. Critics quickly dubbed the Strategic Defensive Initiative "Star Wars." That sobriquet suggested a fantasy-not just a dream, but a pipedream, and a potentially perilous one at that. T he case against Star Wars rests on a cluster of mutually rein forcing arguments. Strictly on technical grounds, experts all across the ideological spectrum doubt that space-based ray guns would work well enough to vindicate Reagan's vision. To pro vide the sort of blanket protection the President and Teller origi nally had in mind, the system would have to offer a 100% guar antee (an untested guarantee at that) of intercepting and disarming an entire huge barrage of Soviet warheads. If even a tiny percentage of the warheads "leaked" through, the devasta tion in the U.S. would be horrendous, and the American leader ship would very likely feel compelled to order a retaliatory strike with whatever remained of its offensive arsenal. After a year of study and refinement in the Executive Branch, the Strategic Defense Initiative now implicitly accepts the impracticality of a leak proof umbrella. Instead it adopts the somewhat more modest "interim" goal of "enhancing," rather than replacing, deterrence based on offensive weapons. The idea is that Soviet plans for an attack would be further complicated by even an imperfect American defense. The President's program remains, however, a radical, unilat... TIME. MAY 7, 1984 Illustration tor TIME by Eugene Mihaesco 81 I l :
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_,_,.;cll_:_'k..:..I_,_,_.,_,_ .. _, -"-'-'-'-""'---------------NEWS------------------------: Star wars Pre-election Congress turning sour Washington THI: militarization of space may yet become a significant issue in November's presidential election in the United States. For the first time, Mr Walter Mondale, the Democratic front-runner, last week promised to order a freeze on space weapons if he is elected President. In Congress, meanwhile, even the Republican( Senate is alarmed about President! Reagan's desire to press ahead with deployment of anti-satellite weapons and research on a "star wars" defence against nuclear missiles. Dr George Keyworth, the President's science adviser, was given a frosty reception when he told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that he opposed negotiating a ban on space weapons lest it blocked the star wars programme. Congressional anxiety can only have been heightened by the publication of a report by its own research arm, the Office of Technology Assessment (QI A}, concluding that the prospect of creating a near-perfect defence is "so remote that it should not serve as the basis of public expectation or national policy". Although detailed criticisms of the star wars plan have been published before -most recently by the Union of Concerned Scientists the new OT A study is the first to be published by a neutral body with full access to classified information. Its pessi mistic conclusions are likely to have considerable influence on the mood of Congress. The report, prepared by Dr Ashton Carter of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, covers largely familiar territory by drawing attention to the difficulties of propagating directed energy weapons with the range and accuracy to knock out a large-scale nuclear attack, and pointing out that for every defence concept proposed so far, simpler and usually cheaper countermeasures have already been identified. One of the most forthright parts of the report, however, points to four common "misapprehensions" about the prospect for a perfect defence. They are: Confusing the successful development of single devices lasers, mirrors, aiming mechanisms and the like with the creation of a successful system. Multi plying by even a million some directed energy weapon will not necessarily give a perfect defence. Equating star wars with past tech nological challenges, such as the Moon landing or the Manhattan Project. The report notes a "vital difference" between working around constraints imposed by nature and competing, in the ease of star wars, with a hostile intelligence bent on sabotaging the effort. Hoping for a technological development that will dispel all difficulties; when perfection of the X-ray laser for example, might turn out to benefit offence more than defence. Expecting to know with reasonable confidence how a complex defensive syslem would perform in reality. Unlike ddenees used in previous wars, this one would have no chance lo learn or adapt. OTA concedes that it might make sense lo construct a star wars system even if it is less than perfect, in order, for example, to protect missile silos or simply to protect as many lives as possible. But it complains that, despite the fanfare with which President Reagan's star wars proposal was announced, its precise aims remain unclear. For that reason, explicit standards against which its technical feasibility can be measured have proved elusive. Peter David
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f!jfifJE.i.i.E'S MISINTERPRET SDI GOALS WEINBERGER SAYS CRITICS yesterday said recent criticisms o~ th~ Defense Secretary Caspar W. bWeitnhbeer~;;ice of Technology Assessment (OTA an I tative program Y f bJ"ectivity" and a Strategic Defense m 1 (UCS) reflect "a lack O 0 f Concerned sc1ent1sts the Union ects .. t rpretation of the goals. concluded that the SDI program's prosp m1sm \'-leinberger said that OTA, which has b s of public expectation" (Defense Daily, h t t should not serve as a as1 also misinterprets the objectives are "so remote t a 1 t ates a lack of objectivity, but A .1 ?S) not only demons r pri l l but as and direction of the program. er reted SDI not as a techmca goa UCS similarly opposed to SDI, m1smt t al Press Club audience. In assessing a system de~loyment effort, Weinberger tol~;S ;:~"numbers that were wrong by a factor the possible capabilities of the SDI system, h of ten, the defense secretary added. he rogram have been confined to "reporting t e He said press reports regarding t p sand the sneers," f l Walter Mondale, who has expressed skept1c1s\;einberger advised Democrat president1fal hope f~re that the Soviets, indeed, already d the heavens or war concern that the U .s. woul o~e: ve the only operational system for defense. use the heavens for warfare an a --,~cii>. '5);;.-/ 3 4' #-{le~ Weinberger points to interim 'star wars' defense By Charles W. Cordd.ry Washington Bureau of Th,e Sun WASHINGTON Defense Secretary Caspar W. Weinberger said yesterday that the United States might deploy a partial "star wars" defense as an interim measure long before it reaches the ultimate goal of a "thoroughly reliable" system for defeating Soviet ballistic mis sile attacks. Defense Department sources said Mr. Weinberger probably was referring to early versions of space-based lasers, as well as ground-based weapons, in suggest ing that bits and pieces of a defense could precede a full system. In any case. Mr. Weinberger gave the "star wars" controversy a new fillip as he told the National Press Club that "yesterday's sci ence fiction is today's reality" and derided headlines calling the de fense scheme "an impossible dream." Attacking former Vice Presi dent Walter F. Mondale by name, the defense chief said the adminis tration's "prudent and focused" re search program will address scien tific concerns about a defense's feasibility, but he was less confi dent about resolving "politically motivated" objections. Mr. Mondale, the defense secre tary said, has contended that the quest for a space-based missile de fense would "open the heavens for warfare." Mr. Weinberger said the Democratic front-runner ignored a Soviet effort at "using the heavens" that dated back to 1967. The Reagan administration, up to now, has stoutly insisted that what it calls its "strategic defense initiative" is a painstaking techno logical research effort to see whether a more-or-less impenetra ble defense against missile attack can be devised by the end of the century. Decisions on whether to go ahead with it would come about 1990. Mr. Weinberger stuck to the re search premise in his speech yes terday but showed his full confi dence in the outcome as he sought to brush aside recent negative reports by the congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Union of Concerned Scientists. The ultimate goal is a thorough ly reliable defense that could "end the dominance" of ballistic mis siles, he said. "This does not preclude, of course, any intermediate deployment that could provide, among other things, defense of the offen sive deterrent forces which, of course, we still have to maintain," Mr. Weinberger said. By "defense of the offensive deterrent forces," Mr. Weinberger meant a system of weapons to knock down Soviet attackers before they could hit U.S. intercontinental missile fields.
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HilLI, ,)l 111'.l:I Jl/lil(1ML 01\l l;\S. r f_X/\S ll l'H '11~ ;~PR 21 ) 1~84 Bug_/f~ I Mondale Scores Space Antimissile Idea, Offers Plan to 'Close Heavens to Warfare' By ROBERT W. MERRY Staff Reporter of THE w ALL STREET JOURNAL CLEVELANDWalter Mondale attacked President Reagan's proposal for a space based antimissile system and offered a plan to keep weapons out of space. In a speech at Case Western Reserve University here, the Democratic presiden tial contender also said if elected he will end U.S. testing of a space-based antisatellite system, or ASAT, designed to destroy ,SOviet satellites. "As president. I will announce a tempo rary moratorium on ASAT testing and chal lenge the Soviets to respbnd in kind-as they say they would," the former vice president said .. He added that the initiative would be part of a five-point plan designed to "close the heavens to warfare." Meanwhile, Congress's Office of TechnolOg)". As.essro~nt.cp,5t doub'torr o.s. anmtrm develop a comprehensive missile-defense system using space-based technology. The office said that in the judgment of most de fense technical experts, the prospect was so remote that it shouldn't "serve as the basis of public expectation or national policy about ballistic missile defense." Mr. Mondale said in his speech that if the Soviets respond to his proposed moratorium he would move toward negotiations on a mu tual ban on such. weapons. Currently, he said, the Soviets have a "primitive" antisa tellite system that ca,n destroy low-orbit sat ellites but can't touch more important U.S. satellite technology at higher orbits. A treaty banning further antisatellite weapons would curb Soviet efforts to threaten U.S. high-orbit satellites, he said, while U.S. efforts to build such a system would merely prompt the Soviets to build more sophisticated and more threatening technology. Mr. Mondale rejected White House argu ments that such a treaty couldn't be veri fied. Mr. Mondale advocated a similar mora torium on testing and development in space of weapons designed to knock out Soviet an tiballistic missiles before they can reach the U.S. And "building on that moratorium," he said, he would move toward a verifiable treaty with the Soviets "blocking weaponry in space." Asked by a student in the audience why he was confident the Soviets would respond to such a weapons moratorium, Mr. Mon I cited President John Kennedy's similar roach on atmospheric nuclear testing in It was such a moratorium that led to the nuclear test-ban treaty that year, he said. The Reagan administration. moving to ward deployment-of an antisatellite system, tested such a system in January. And the administration has asked Congress for increased funding for research and develop ment on a so-called. "star wars" space sys tern designed to shield the U.S. from Soviet intercontinental missiles. Mr. Mondale's fifth point is a resolve to abide by the antiballistic-missile treaty with the Soviets signed in 1972. Mr. Reagan has been criticized for advocating a space-based antimissile system because that treaty would have to be abrogated before the system could be put into place. The report of the Office of Technology Assessment said any of the technologies that might be used in a "star wars" system ulti mately would be susceptible to countermea sures by the Soviet Union. Moreover, the re port questioned the wisdom of relying on a "less-than-perfect" defensive system. The report was released by Sen. Larry Pressler (R., S.D.), who warned that "it would be a national disaster if hundreds of billions or even a trillion dollars were spent in investi gating technological dead-ends."
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---sTUDY CHALLENGES := :_ SP.ACE LASER PLAN -----::~!J.S. Report Calls the Prospect Y ,.. for Success of Antimissile .. --' ... ,t4_ ... .,.. System Too Remote ,._ ..... .., By WAYNE BIDDLE l>'pecial to The Nflw York Times ;_;,:-;,.WASHINGTON, April 24 -A study released today by the Congressional : ;.~Office of Technology Assessment con-~udes that the prospect for success of a space-based antimissile system is 0so "remote that Jt should not serve as the :: '-=6asts of public expectation or national ,. t~'Policy." -~-The Reagan Adminiqtration has ~-~, ~_'quested $1-.7 billion in the fiscal year The New York Times 'Poul H09efl'OI Senaion Larry Pressler, left, and Paul Tsongu conferring on Congre..c stonaJ report on spaee--b~ed las~rs yesterday before riw~s ccnference. l p r\ r V = [ -----1985 forcresearcti on sp.:.ce-based lasers r "':'.::and other directed-enttrgy technology. "The wisdom Of deploying less-than. missile defenses "1-Ie Said it '-"ll.S "imC -----intended to stDJ) attaddng mii::sUe's. ,,perfect ballistic missile defenses-re-possible to esttmat~ ~ow, with. any i:: "'lbe!irstffveyearsofresearchfo,such :mains controversial," the report said. pret.?ision, .the full :i;_ost of developing 2 .. ,-:uystem is expected to cost $25 billion I Such ;def~nses would stili allow the and deploying" a complete s;ystem. t1 according to Pentagon e-stimatoo. Russians to destroy the United States "lf'he technology office report HJ.id ::::.:The ~rt. wr!ttP.?J by Ashton B. Carin a. hugeattack, it added, but might that powerful directed-energy weapor,.s ter, a research fellowat the Massachu-make the effectiveness of smaller would prol;)abJy be develo~ !or other ~" ~~ Institute of Technology's Center ~trikes more questionabl"!. militar; purposes, e,::m if they were -for International Studies, says that. de-"1 n all ,:ases, directoo-1mergy weap. never used ror space-based missile de' -: ~--.. ploying such missile defenses in space oris and other devices" needed tQ defense. ''Defense a:1d ;irms cootf'.I < -: 1s forbidden by a.19'72 treaty with the stroy strategic nuc:ear missiles "have policy will tlrns nr~d t,-'~. :h.;! ,1" ,nt 1 ',oviet Union banning antimi<:,;iJe mis-not yet been built in the laboratory, o1 ~he3e new_weapu11s, irrespL>Ctiw ol l -'Siles. much less in a form suitable" for a real their ballistic missik ddem:e d1men-c In testimony today before a Senate system, the report ~aid. It added, "It is ~ion," the reoort :;:1frl f -~rmed Services .Committee subcom-.unknown whether or when devices with '.There is little 01 ;-: hope that exoti, c -mittee, Lieut. Gen. Jame:; A. Abrathe required specifications can be beam weqponrywm in the future elimi-f hamson, who began duty last week as built natc the threat of 1,udear weapons, director of P~ident Reagan's spaceIn testimony_ before the -Senate said S121nator Larry Pressler, Republit : ':' ; l)ased weapons program, said 'the Armed Services Committee last can of South Dakr-tta, wlto rP.qu~ted thr f. treaty would have to be modified to month. Richard D. Del.auer, Under st11dy with Senator Paul r~onga"', --permit putting such weapons in orbit. Secretary of Defense for ri>,search and l)P!T'(.._rat of Massar:h,s,~1 s "P would c Rejoinder by General engineering, said the Pentagon's cur-~a nnl.iona! disaster if hundred~ ot bil-t' -., .. _,. "S ha d th h rentgnalwastobea!:lletndecidebythellu.-;s or evPn a trWi.mdollarn Wf're ll, :_: _.: ome. ve ma e e C?t1c1sm _t ~t ea_ rly -1990's "an whP.ther and how to I spent in. mvestig,:ttillg teclw ilor,ir:al 1 ~f ., e!fect1ve defense against balhs!Jc proceed witb. devp1oprnent of ballistic dP.Wl \')11ds. __ n11ss1les is technolog1cally unattam'.:: ;,; -able, too expensive. and woulJ only 'lead to another reund of the a rrns ~"rac:~ General Abrahamson said. 'We ''do n:n believe this to be true." M' The general said hi.s research was fo. vcused on defending against 1111 types of '!)allisttc missile.<:, includ~ng short. range tactical and intercontinental~:. range strategic missiles, for a sy:;tell'.l ~that would protect the United ,:States ::1.nd its allies. "--"'--The Congressional report did not rep resen~ a full-fledged assessment by tht' technr;logy oflice, but rn .he.:-was a background paper t<' suppor: a broader, study of space weapons. A technology office official said the report had been reviewed by outside expert!!'. -vho held a range of opinions on the prn_ ?()Sed weapons.The report W'lS based ,m full access. to classified information and studies performe(I.' for the President. Regarding the technical prognosis for a perfect or near-petiect defense based on being able to destroy enemy missiles before they reach their tar-, gets, th_e report said it was "extremely pessimtstic" because of possible Soviel r:ountermeasures-and because such a system would not protect against other means of carrying nuclear weapon~. FiUr.h ;:u:r hnmhPN-l"\T ,...,.,,1~,,, ..... h, :1 ........
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Wednesday, April 25, 1984/Part_. _1 j t $tudy Raises Doubts on ~Technical Effectiveness 'Of 'Star Wars' Defenses By PAUL HOUSTON, Times Staff Writer WASHINGTON-A study done for Congress' Office of Technology Assessment and released Tuesday strongly questions the technical ~feasibility of President Reagan's proposed "Star Wars" anti-missile .,defense system. The study, stressing the likely effectiveness of Soviet countermea~ sures, gives critics fresh anupuni Uon as Co~gress nears. its first legislative showdown over. Rea.:. ;gan.'s space-based weapons pro ~gram. 1r; .. Sens. Larry Pressler (R-S.D.) and Paul E. Tsongas (D-Mass.), in releasing the study, said it. demon strates that "a trillion or more ,dollars" would be wasted in devel:o,P4ig laser-armed space satellites ~and related weapons. to defend Mainst a Soviet missile attack. ~:: Ashton B. Carter, a scientist .at ~the Massachusetts Institute of 'Technology~ was hired to do the ,study by the nonpartisan technology office, 'Yhich said the report would be used as "background for a broader, fujl-fledged" review of new Qallistic missile defense tech-:nologies. General Defends It '. .The report's release came as Democratic presidential front-run ner Walter F. Mondale called in Cleveland for a temporary freeze on ~testing and deployment of such srstems, an9 as Air Force Lt. Gen. James A. Abrahamson, head of the Administrati~n's space. weapons re search program, defended it before acongressjonal subcommittee '. Abrahamson, testifying before the Senate 'Armed Services sub committee on strategic and theater 1)!,.tclear forces, insisted that the ,program should be pursued and ,said, "There is no reason to believe ,that future investment in defensive systems would exceed the invest ment we have made in offensive forces in years past." He conceded, however, that the system proposed by Reagan proba bly could not be deployed without changes in current arms control pacts with the Soviet Union .. Research on such technology is al lowed under the agreements.he said, but modifications in the 1972 Anti:.ballistic Missile Treaty are "the only way we can deploy" a new system. 'Remote' Prospect The study by the Office of Tech nology Assessment concluded that the prospect was .. "remote" that "emerging 'Star Wars' technologies, when furtherde:veloped, wiU pro. vide a perfect or near-perfect de fense. system, literally removing from the hands of the Soviet Union the ability to do socially mortal damage to the United States with nuclear weapons." That is "the consensus among informed members of the defense technical community," the study said. .. All candidates for a future defense of population are known to be susceptible to countermeasures that would permit the Soviet Union to retain a degree of penetration with their future. missile arsenal despite cosily attempts to improve the U.S. defense," the 98-page study added. Pressler, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations arms control subcommittee, said in a statement accompanying the report that "it would be a national disaster if hundreds of billions or even a trillion dollars were spent in inves tigating technological dead-ends." The Administration is seeking $1.75 billion in research funds for \ ~~Preu International Gen. James A. Abrahamson fiscal 1,985, which begins Oct. 1. It says it needs about $25 billion over five years to determine if it ts technically feasible to pursue Rea gan's "strategic defense initiative." The House Armed Services Com mittee has recommended a $400million cut in the $1.75-billion request, presaging major floor fights in the House and Senate in coming weeks. BatUes also are expected over the anti-satellite guided mis sile (ASAT), which is seen as both a technical and symbolic precursor of the "Star Wars" system. Arma Control Talks Senate action is scheduled next month on a Pressler resolution calling on the President to resume arms control talks on space weap ons. In addition, Rep. George E. Brown Jr. CD-Colton) is pushing a resolution that would commit the United States to continued obser ,vance of the 1972 ABM treaty. A w.idely publicized Administra tion report, issued last month, argued that it was militarily necessary to develop the anti-satellite missile and contended that it was not feasible to verify a total ban on all ASATs. Proponents of the weapon are using the report to oppose the Pressler resolution.
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AEROSPACE OAiLY WASHINGTON, D.C. OAIL 'f APR 2ft 1984 .iUB,8.!:!: I DEVELO!t. MENT OF PERFECT BMD SYSTEM ISN'T LIKELY, OTA PAPER SAYS c-;;;.cr1 An Offic ol I~S!UlQ!Q~ .. Ass~_me!1~ (OTA) ba~kground paper ~oncludes that the possibility of developing a perfect or near-perfect strategic defense system 1s remote. The paper, prepared by Ashton B. Carter of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, declared: ''The prospect that emerging 'Star Wars' technologies, when further developed, will provide a perfect or near-perfect defense system, literally removing from the hands of the Soviet Union the ability to do socially mortal damage to the United States with nuclear weapons, is so remote that it should not serve as the basis of public expectation or national policy about ballistic missile defense (BMD)." This judgment, the paper said, appears to be the consensus among informed members of the defense technical community. The paper, preliminary to a full-blown assessment by the OTA on new ballistic missile defense technologies, was released Tuesday by Sens. Larry Pressler (R-S.D.) and Paul Tsongas (D-Mass.), both of whom are opposed to the Administration's strategic defense initiative (SDI). Pressler said it would be "a national disaster if hundreds of billions or even a trillion dollars were spent in investigating technological dead ends." Pressler is author of a Senate resolution which calls on President Reagan to resume arms control talks on space weapons. The resolution is expected to be taken up by the Senate soon. Tsongas said the OTA study "sets down the realities of strategic defense-vulnerability, battle management difficulties, enormous scale and cost, the effectiveness of countermeasures, and most importantly the remote possibility of developing effective technologies." Tsongas sponsored an amendment last year that prohibited testing of an anti-satellite weapon. against targets in space unless the Administration certifies that it is actively assessing the possibility of a treaty banning ASAT weapons. The OTA paper said the wisdom of deploying less-than-perfect ballistic missile defenses remains controversial. The President's goal, the paper continued, in calling for emphasized BMD researchperfect, near-perfect or less-than-perfeet defense against ballistic missiles-remains unclear. In all cases, the paper said, directed-energy weapons and other devices with the specifications needed for boost-phase intercept of ICI3_Ms have not yet been built for the laboratory, "much less in a form suitable for incorporation in a complete defense system." "Moreover, making the technological devices perform the needed specifications in a controlled situation is not the crux of the technical challenge facing designers ," the paper said. "A distinct challenge is to fashion from these devices a reliable defensive architecture, taking into account vulnerability of the defense components, susceptibility to future Soviet countermeasures and cost Carter said it was clear that "potent directed-energy weapons" will be developed for other military purposes, even if such weapons are never incorporated into effective BMD systems. For modest defensive goals requiring less than perfect performance, he said, "traditional reentry phase defenses and/or more advanced mid-course defenses might suffice." He said the paper did not explore in detail the close connection between advanced BMD concepts and future anti-satellite systems. An OTA staffer said the Carter paper had been reviewed by people who favor SDI and l they did not raise technical objections to it. ------------
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RADIO TV REPORTS, INC. 4701 WILLARD AVENUE. CHEVY CHASE. MARYLAND 20815 (301) 656-4068 OFFICE OF TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT NBC Nightly News STATION WRC-TV NBC Network DAlE April 24, 1984 7:00 P.M. CITY Washington, D.C. SUBJECT OTA/Star Wars Proposal TOM BROKAW: In Washington today, Senator Larry Pressler --he's a Republican and Senator Paul Tsongas, a Democrat, made public a report from the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment. The office has evaluated the Reagan Administation's so-called Star Wars proposal for destroying Soviet missiles from outer space. The conclusion of that office? The possibilities that Star Wars will work, remote. OFFICES IN: WASHINGTON D.C. NEW YORK LOS ANGELES CHICAGO DETROIT AND OTHER PRINCIPAL CITIES Material supplied by Radio 1V Reports. Inc. may be used for file and reference purposes only. It may not be reproduced. sold or publicly demonstioted or exhibited.
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. Groundwater
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'.,l_ AIR/WATER POLLUTION REPORT SILVER SPRING MD WEEKLY MAY 7 1984 BV!{_/Uu.PS LAND DISPOSAL STANDARDS WILL NOT STOP gROUNDWATER CONTAMINATION, OTA WARNS Federal land disposal regulations under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act are not stringent enough to prevent groundwater contamination, warns a staff memorandum from the O.t:t:i.c.e of Technology Assessm~ot. The memo concludes that "problems with the RCRA groundwater protection standards are so numerous and serious that the standards cannot compensate for what has been found to be ineffective and unproven land disposal technology." Due to technology and regulatory limitations, OTA staff suggest that land disposal be used only for inert, low-hazard wastes and at facilities where ,groundwater will not be threatened. If these precautions are not taken, there will be a growing number of sites requiring cleanup under Superfund, the memo cautions. Even with these precautions, the memo warns of the threat from the billions of tons of hazardous waste that has been disposed of for decades in what are now interim status facilities. OTA criticizes EPA for not adequately considering alternative standards and for not evaluating more expensive standards in light of the cleanup costs accompanying inadequate standards. EPA's regulatory decisions "have had the effect of keeping down the short-range costs of the regulated community" without regard to the cost of cleaning:.:Up contamination that will result from inadequate regu lation, the memo charges. Regulatory deficiencies found by the OTA staff under RCRA include: less stringent groundwater protection standards at interim status facilities than at new sites; no requirements for stopping leaks or closing facilities with confirmed groundwater contamination; requirement that facility operators cleanup contamination only within facility boundaries; no requirements for financial assurance for corrective action at leaking sites; no monitoring requirements for land between a facility and underground water; no standards restricting facility siting to geologically suitable locations; and no health effects basis for determining acceptable levels of groundwater contaminants.
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OSWEGO, NY THE PALLADIUM TIMES D. 7,790 APR 11 1984 lf4B.E~S _______ 10ur V-iew_ Pay A Little Now, ~ PRy1ALot Later Cleaning up a contaminated dump ~rding to the report, many toxic site is an expensive proposition. The _sites will later require clean-ups at .cleanup of the site ()f Pollution heavy cost. Abatement Services, a former toxic William Sanjour, an official who waste repository in Oswego, worked with the agency that helped demonstrates this point. the Technology Assessment agency The site on the east side of the city write the report, described the closed in 1977. Since then, a total of problem this way in a recent in$1.8 million has been spent to make terview with The New York Times: the area safe under the federally"Ground water is being con funded Superfund program. taminated because the regulations, Despite that considarable sum, it toprotect it are largely cosmetic. is still not clear whether wells at They are like a movie set: They look nearby Smith Creek homes are good from a distance, but when you contaminated. And officials get close you find there is little estimate that the next phase. of the substance." marathon cleanup could add This report's findings are said to another$2.3millfon. conform to those of the EPA's own Obviously,. those costs. would regional offices. never have been incurred if the The report in particular singles dangerous materials had been out toxic waste sites that were disposed of properly in the first operating when Congress passed a place. That is of course a moot point toxic waste law in 1976. Such sites at the PAS site. were placed under less stringent However, that point is of great regulations than ne\t sites. relevance in talking about governAnother problem cited in the ment regulation of toxic waste sites report that hits close to home is the that are still operating. The thing to absence of rules that would allow remember is that it is cheaper cleanup beyond the property (aside from-the fact that it's safer) boundaries of the dump sites to insist on proper disposal in the themselves. Yet homeowners in first place than to correct a serious Oswego near the PAS site know that -problem. water-borne pollution does not It's worth insisting on that point necessarily respect property because it appears that, for all its boundaries. simplicity, it still eludes us as a These and other aspects of the law society. That sad fact was conshould be tightened up. The firmed in a recent report from the dilemma is clear: we can spend a CongressionaLOffice of TecbnnJogy little now to save our health a lot, or ,A$sessmenL we can spend a lot later to save our report concludes that the health a little. Why has this choice federal Environmental Protection been so difficult for us to make? Agency's rules for monitoring and Wba&'s your opinion? Please let a know 1n controlling hazardous wastes are a letter to the edi1or. AD letters mm be d t t t t d d signed. lndltde your addren aad phene ma equa e pro ec un ergroun number -not for publication. but In ease we w~ter supplies. As a result, ac=eed=to::.::::eon==&a:::ct:.i::x.::ou::.'-----===-
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THE MOBILE REGISTER MOBILE. ALA. D. '.l0,86~ SAT. 23.291 APR 10 IJ84 BU(f'fl'I.U"'S Scope of EPA rules is ~ted By GUY DARST Associated Press Writer WASHINGTON (AP) The Environmental Protection Agency's present rules cannot pro tect groundwater from contamination by toxic waste leaking from land.fills, and that is likely to mean expensive cleanups in the future, according to a staff report of the Office of Technology Assessment. "This analysis concludes that, where groundwater is at risk, (waste disposal) groundwater protection standards are not likely to prevent land disposal sites from becoming uncontrolled sites that will require cleanup under Superfund," said the report. The report, dated last Friday, was made available by the office on Monday. Of the 881 sites evaluated for the Superfund priority. cleanup list, 526 had undergone some leakage of hazardous substances into groundwater. More than 8 million Americans draw drink ing water from groundwater potentially exposed from those sites, the report said. Further, the report said, "We are beginning to see cases of land disposal sites leaking after they have received wastes from Superfund cleanups." The Superfund, which is financed by a tax on chemical raw materials, is a revolving fund soon to reach $1.6 billion meant for cleaning up chemical waste dumps. EPA has 546 sites on its priority cleanup list, and has estimated that as many as 2,200 may need cleanup at a cost that could reach $16 billion. The Offlce of 'Iecbllaloa Assesa.metit,,,pre vious estimated that $40 billion would be needed, not counting the costs of correcting whatever problems Superfund may create itself. Landfills should be limited to chemically inert waste. the report said. Bills have been introduced in Coagress that would require wastes going intn landfj)]s t.o rend.er them inert. EPA operates under two main federal laws in the area in question, the 1980 Superfund cleanup law, limited to old landfills, and another 1976 law designed to regulate new land.tiJ1s. An agency spokesmaii did not return a telephone call MOllday afternoon. The agency's regulations are entirely dif ferent in the two .eas, the report found. 1.111: Dfflec oJ '.l:t,clmoln~u,srnent found these problems with the 1 regulations written for the 1976 basic landfill law: -Although EPA requires new landfills to be designed not to leak for 30 years, the agency has no requirement that the landfill be closed until the leak is fixed. There is not even a requirement to find or stop the leak; only that groundwater poUUtion from it be cleaned up "of limited effectiveness when the leaking is allowed to continue." -EPA does net require corrective_ action beyond the property boundary of the landfill. -Some conta.Dlinants regulated under the Superfund law are not regulated under tbf\ basic landfill law. -EPA appeacs to have set tolerances for groundwater contaminants too high, with no cost-benefit analysis to whether a more sensitive but more expensive detection method might save money in the long run by preventing the escalation of cleanup expenses. -The agency's statistical formula keeps down the likelihood of false alarms at the expense of a higher probability of not detecting contamination.
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New York Times /Je,r,J Saturday, jet; 3&ky 7, 1984 Study Finds E.P.A. Noi: Protecting Ground:Water By PHILIP SHABECOFF Mr. Dawson added. however, that There are about 2~0QO of these land-5pec1a111111e Mew Y current regulations ."were deYel fllls, pits,. pioads and lagoons that have W ~HINGTON, April t-'lbe Elm--on the basis of~ best available tech-."already recelved billions of tons .ofroomental Protection Agency's and are deslgned to protect all hazanlous waistes over several dee-. for --~and~ ....... hazard. envfi'onmental .. He said that ades" and are contfmJug to .uavu&----. "asnew~emerges,the~ 'tbem.thenportnoted.. -"-:'''"--ous waste are inadequate to protect un-lations wUl be improved." It also said that many are dergroundwater sappUes. accordiilgto 1be -regulates leak:lng and many others can ~t.,. __ for=. ... _. the MDCUmg lUld~bazardoas pec:ted to leak.~. it sai na a; .. says .,,, .... wastes under the Resource CcJnsenaenvironmental agency-will take years Collgrei$iooa1 Offlceof Tedm.ology As-tion and Reccwery Act of 1978. 1be todecidewbichwill begivenP,ermitsto :::~ =~m:r::o: agency reported in August that 150lnil-coatlnue operatlons. .' cl ___ .... .... the ----Ilea lion metl;ic tons of wastes subject to Mr. Dawson.~ agency spokes~ .,.._,. up ua .,,_,. .. at :vy E.P-4, ~tion wea,f ~lef:I in said that IIOl1l8 of"tbe waste si~ in "G.:........ ter _18 -=-_.__, the United St.a in 1981_._. -:-:;, ~tionwbtJntbelawwaspassedwil1 1.UIIUI& wa .,..... ..........u.u.-1be report conclucled-.that __ ':wbere be-required to close.: natedpcause the regulations .to pro-ground water is at'--~, the ruls Tile report 'DOted.that while E.Px. tect it are largely ~c;'' said Wil-adopted undei' tlie act~'insufftcieat rulesrequire'~bazardous.waste~ liam Sanjour, an offic:ial of the environ-to t landfills.used rot toxic waste posalsitaHobe designecfso tiieydo'not mental ~-who workecl"1rith the f~bec:omulg-~'~trolled sites leak for 30 ye;us, there is.~ n,qutr~ Con~onal office in preparing that will require cleanup under meat that sites" be shut dowlt~ they~ report, 'They are like a movie set. fund," a -~ tc, the Compreheo-leak. . : '. -_ They look_ good. from a distance. but stve EnviMmnental Response, Com:It also pointed out that the 'rules' do when you get close you find there is lit-pensation and Uability Act enacted in not require corrective action for tie substance." 1980 to deatwith unused and abandoned_ ground wat'1'. COQtamination beyond Lack of Natioawhle Maaltorill& waste si. -' the boundaries of'a disposal site, al-, *'-,...... 'lbe report ccinclpdes ii would'be far tboagh underground :~~tamioatlon The ~logy office 8 ..........., are less expensive to monitor waste sites does not respect property lines. ,,. m tine.with internal reports submitted adequately and to protect water sup-Current rules are not based on the ef by offices of the E.P .A., wbicb plies than to clean the water after tt is fects1 of to:xiasr on human llealth and baye satd that _efforts to mooitor polluted. ,. maynotbeadequatetoprotecthumaDS water are inadequate to protect .The inadequate regulations, coupled-against contaminated water, the study pubhc health. with insufficiently devetoped tech'8,id. It also said the regulations were There is no nationwide system for Diques .for preventing ground water designed keep testing costs low, and monitoring undetground water pollucootamhiation, .. are likely to cause as a result ttier, is a high probability tion. Experts agree that once ground serious problems for future genera-' tbatcontaminationmaygoWl.detected. water becomes contaminated, it is dif-tions," the-~ said. Another problem wjtb the rules, ~-) ficult if not impossible to reverse the Of pai:ticular conc:ern, they said, are study said, Is that thel do not require process. About half the nation draws its waste cUsposa1 sites that were in opera-monitoring for toxic leatage in the drinking water from 'subsurface sup-tion when the toxic -waste law was ground between the bottom of a waste plies. passed. They were permitted to con-site and waderground water. This Russell 'A. Dawson, a spokesman for tinue in operation under less stringent IQe8IIS. it said. .that an opportunity is l the agency, said agency offlcia1s bad requirements for. moni~ aod lost to get .an early jramtng' of. leaks =;en~ :9 =~
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Automation
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IDl1c 100hutl1tunton ifo11t WASHINGTON, 0. C. D. 730.000 SUN. 952.540 _M~uek~u~84 l --Study (;itesfCcr,np_~~~~' 1,Jp~t on Jobs .i :BY Peter Perl th~ ;Midwest; in iri;~ ._;~;king fact~kers have a strortg foundation i1_1 w~,-seauWrtter. tories -of the Northeast and Middle jeading~ science, and mathematics, ,L.The; rapidly expanding_ use of ./Atlantic region; arid.in ~aerospace ,OTA said. "But estimated levels of computer-based. automation in :and electronics-mcfustriee'o. the Sun .tun~onal i~teracy suggest that American manufac;turing-".'can imi' Belt. -~-It '"inany prospective employes will not prove productivity and quality,_ but "It will not;. however, .. generate have that foundation" unless the ed wru. aggravate unemployment.hi the massive nationwide -unemployment l ucational system' adapts and im Northeast and Midwest;:and, will over the next decade, the study f proves, it said. have "enormous lqng;t.erm. im~ said.. Marjory Blumen~ .who direci on the kinds of jobs available in the Rep. _I)oug Wn (D-Pa.), who [ t.ed the computer project .for OTA. future. J : -~ / ~-a,,t.ec:hnology subcommittee of :: said. the United Statea baa lagged i Those.:are .. among '.~~-~~&,n:: ._ .the~ .:~nee and Technology r behind Scandinavian countries, Ja: clusionsof a'-~7_1~pagfatudy):ele&*l_ Co~~,' siud the_:,_PTA study ,1 1pan and West Germany in assessing : yesterday by the"c:ongressicmal Office~' -pomts) up' thct ;need for,-:tbeJedetal > how technology can negatively influ-' of Technology Assessmen~. which ~o~emment_ to help re~l the .~u-r ence the quality of work life. also found that while automation cat1onal system and gear 1ob-tram1ng ', i The study said that the effort tocan improve the work.environment, eff~its to specific needs of particular i ward "hwnanization of work" is comit has transformed many jobs into_-~ons. plicat.ed by the conflict between more stressful and monotonous When ,they brought the tractor [management concepts of productiv-/. tasks. ._ : on~ the farms. nobody stopped to r ity and employee' "more complex I i The report; described asthe most ask, how many unempl~yed horses iconcepts of worker satisfaction/'---:--' I comprehensive : attempt to date --to-,_ ~ere were. But., with ~mputers.. 1t seems nobody has asked that assess the impact of' computenzed t bo t h-" 'd Wal the-. ques 10n a u umans, sa1 automa_ t1on on Am_ encan workh_.. d' t ct P'ttsb 1. I all ed gren. w ose IS n 18 m 1 urg ., P a~, gener Y gives .1 ~ix review center of the s~el industry, in which of the new technol~es; Baying that many jobs have been permanently compute1:9 have. ne1~er been a panlost to automation. acea for industrial problems nor. th_e In terms of projected employdreade~ _menace, that_ ~ould ebm1.ment, expanding high-tech indua-. nate millions of Jobs forever. tries will create more demand for OTA :does. not specify the numengineers, computer scientists, up hers of Jobe .lost or _cre:,ted by "pr~ per-level managers, technicians, and grammable. automation (PA). But 1t technical sales and service workers, concludes that all. types of PAOTA.said, But declines are forecast robots, computerized. machine-tools, f 6r m08t' craft workers lower and computer-aided 'designing techniquea .middle management, laborers, clerand other machines"'-will continue ical. personnel, and less skilled jobs. to cause short-term job losses in auto "Achieving the promise" of autoplants and other heavy industry of mation will require that future job-I I
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.. -~ ..... -~ -NASHVILLE, TEN\li, D. 24.759 SUN. 240.362 MAY 13 1984-Bu~eu.e's ~utorriCftion Hurts Some Areas: $tydy \.--.,. ... -. -: By DREW VON B~GEN ,, yalif oroi? and T~a; witn.t~ei~ /' un.1= .:"'OM ubor Reporter x ~er,_<>spac~ and el1:Ctrical!maclqecy It'. ., WASHINGTON (UPI) -:-Robots~ plants,. and other auto~~t~on _in Ameri'?'l's ~'IQ the ~~rt ter.m, areas ~Qt-q~~ ,i P!ants arid factc;mes ~11 lead: to,;\pendent:ron;si11gl~'.firrtls 9(fny_~e~~e~{~~~~i.i neL puter~a1ded techriolog1~\ ,he .s-" .,, These new jobs will reqt1ire edu-. "H9w,e':7ef ;~w6 na:~~.:~i~~~f cational training that the nation's to cons1j:letJth~. f!tiirul~.~l~~eJ:l schools may not able to provid~ .. The;:newfJ~.~!ogt~, W1;~it. ,, quickly enough, ,the report said'., >a, sh1tt,fi::p~,;{~,a_P,~a.!l!-i9.,.~~~r-''= str9ng foundation in :ea';fu~g,, w~rk/~Jor,~apYJ?~~l~;tp~~P.~t :. sc1en~e,,:and m~thematic skllls 1s m-. :Sil1d.-a_ ,nd,Jf !iU.i~~~.J~i(iUJ}.1tf tor~ creasinglyJmportantfor ~11 occupa. people to:i_Qt:\:ome pr'6f1c en~ .at .a,, ;, tions, the reportsaid, but it added,' task ... > ) ;, "Estimated level;, of functfonal illit: 1 ~u.topiat'ton. is likel~. !~ lryiprov~:; ,:;J eracy suggest that many' prospec, phys1c_a,l-wofkmg cond1t10~ the~~ b; tive employees will riot have that portsa1d, but c;oulg_ppq~,~n~gatiY,~-,~), foundation." _, eff~ts ~uch as decreas111g ~Il}pJoy~~; ~ffec~s of automation, the report' ees' ~~gree of at1ton2111(,i:;1~i~f.., .... t.~'.~!> :";ol",-.,:c<: --cc-, _. ,--. said, wtll be concentrated m the. creativity. ;;, ,.J A,,,,;,~:',:,JI\';/ ::.~:. ; New York Times Photo sh:~~~~~i~ci~:~1ir~~~~n. esi~;!~r~s~~~rr~tu1i:~t~:~~:,p!lytqmated :Assembly A Gen~ol Electric Co. pecially Ohio, Michigan and Illinois, pro~esses, and tf md11;5try d~es ~ot :technician in New York City monitors a factory display terminal where the auto and non-electrical desig~ te~~nology which mamtams as dishwashers ore assembled by losers robots and other toQls of machinery industries are concen-the 'hvab1hty' of work, future pro T i trated. ductivity and our quality of life will automation .. his double exposure p~oto shows, in t~e ~ock- Middle Atlantic states, a major clearly not be what could ground, a typncal computer S\'.=reen display of key points in the
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WlJt f(umnw Uiitg unmcu KANSAS CITY, MO.' 0. 2~.210 MAY 15 1984 BU(%JEU.FS -----.,-,... .... .--Automation expected to af f~ect regions b,;' 1-i I The Associated Press WASHINGTON -' The use of com puters to automate the workplace will aggravate regional unemploy ment but will not cause serious un employment nationwide during the next decade, according to the con gressional Office of Technology As-~nL A study by the office said the shortterm effects of automation will be felt most in the East. North Central and mid-Atlantic regions,, especially where metalworking industries are concentrated; The North Central region includes Missouri and Kansas. Automation "can improve manufacturing productivity, product quality and working. conditions, and it might have an enormous long-term impact on number and kinds. of CHICAGO SUN-TIMES CHICAGO, ILL. D. 651.580 SUN. 677681 MAY 11 1984 Jl!@R.ELLFS jobs available,'! the study suggested. .. 'Rep. Douglas Walgren, a PennsylBecause manufacturing workers <; Vania Democ.rat, said the federal displaced by automation may lack.8t,.government should work to balan~ skills needed to find other work.i:f''lndustrys need to automate and its "there is immediate need for retrain-f~ on people. ing and job counseling geared to af .. "Governme,it must start now to fected persons and regions," it said. .!' nnimize the adverse effects of the "In the long run, overall demand: dislocation automation brings,': Mr. will rise for engineers, techni.cians .. i Walgren,. chairman of the Science maintenance personnel, senior man-if and Technology research subcom agers and technical sales and sup.. mittee, said in a statemenL port staff,'' the report said. "De-:' "We cannot deny ~1;15trys mand will fall for machine opera-1 for increased productivity and effltors labol'el"s lower and middle.~ ciency afforded by the new com-, zruu:agers,andclericalpersonnel." ; puter-aided technologies,'' he_~-The study said the public and pri-' "However, we have a responsibility vate sectors should begin planning to\ to consider the human elemenL develop new approaches to educaIt is our responsibility to consider tion, training and career guidance to options for the f~ that meet all of. meet 0long-term changes in skill re. the needs of our SOCJety." quirements." ------------~ ~~v.i~~!e.t~~~~d~!!, still years away a S~limes Bureau the flee of Techn~lo:y ~on,iat!dd ma~hinery in It a~so says "the change .; 'r.'Y1 ~ment, watc ou i &)'. s '1:1 ustr1al schen:e m national employment in. WA.:iHINGTON-Wor-Rep. Doug Wal ren
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Pli"TSf:2 0, MA BEn::s;;::-; EAGLE D. 33, E!J Co~ta, Jaku~owtct~ urge 11.~f{()nal. pohY Of. robots State ~; Frank N. Costa, D-eign manufacturers who are more :J\.dams, bas been joined by State .advancechtn the use of robotics and Rep. RoberfFrank.Jakubowicz, D:to imposcfa: "transaction tax'.' 'on Pittsfield, In sponsoring a resolution foreign and domestic-made robots, r!g Congress to adopt a national the proceeds. to be used for the re c policy to protect American training of displaced workers. and businesses from the impact 'lbe bm. will be refe~ to. the of. the Increasing use of Industrial Letlslature's Committee on Federal robots. : F~cial: 'Assistance for a public They are responding to a call for hearing. action from Joan B. Ellsworth, who Earlier; Rep. Jakubowicz sent a ls bead of the Social Action Com-letter to Paul J. Eustace,. the state mittee of -Local:255-rIUE,.the, pro-0 ~etary. of labor;-urging'bls office duction workers' union, at .Ceneral to, support the recommendations of Electric Co. in Pittsfield. the; ConS!lSional Office of TechThe Costa ~lution calls on Con-nologfAis'essment. gress to ~dopt the recommendations -1 of the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, which following an exploratory workshop called for a national public policy to help ret; rain workers displaced by industrial 1 robots and to create public incen' tives for development of alternate technology designed around human beings. It also called for the creation of public incentives to help domestic employers compete fairly with for. Y2, qo4 M~. .-~ 1 .. ~, flfl.i/JEL.l.E'S INDUSTRIAL BRIEFS IS THE U.S. READY FOR AUTOMATION'S IMPAa? While automation will not cause massive unemployment in the U.S. over the next decade, it will have significant, long-term impact on blue collar, middle-management, and clerical jobs. However, a 470-page study re leased by the cong.r~.siQJUIJ....Qffice.. o{ T.fil:boolo~ Assessment concludes that the U.S., unlike Europe and Japan, has yet to start planning for these effects. It says new approaches to education, training, and career guidance will be needed-and warns that schools are not providing students with the read ing, science, and mathematics skills that will be vital in all occupatio,G1---11
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FOND DU LAC, WIS. REPORTER D. 21,900 S. 22,031 MAY 31 1984 jUf1./1~ 1 Plann,ing, lllU~t he;i, sta~_ed _,r-r ;~~ure w~ik~r~!J>11;l~f ... Fea W'l~JAk~mputer-based The,: :o~:,-:1aut~mati~m, ~utomation will generate' massive ; thi-qgh, '!\teq~ir.e ~a!efulmesh1~g unemployment across the_nation ap-. of _lechm~,J.. esop0,m1~, and social --pear groundless, accordi~g to a new goals, and 'Coop~ratlon amon~ many congressional study. .. jse~tors ol_ ,s'.~o_~1~~y. ""7 pubhc and That's not to. say th_at t?e new _,prfqi-t~~sta~e; ~ew .approaches_ to_ : technolo~y will ~ot_ displace_ \education, training and career / workers; 1t already 1s domg t~~t a_nd ~guida~ce wm be .needed to acefforts need to be mad~ to minimize 'lcommodate .. long-term changes in the effect. But the _net _impact of t~e fakilJ requirements: There may be a technology revolutwn lS llkely tom-\need for tbe((ederai government to crea~e overaH empl?yment. Not .n-~chaiige''the 'way it looks at its own ly will there be new Jobs for retra1r suppo~t~fj~b-tr,aJng;p_r.ograms to ed:wo~kers ,.~ut ~ls.o for th .. peop_e '.~. elp mee.tth~,t~ci:.olog1cal. ~evolu-.-. who will retrai and. cou,nselthem.,.. ...... ion_ .. ~-::: .. /. "-. :-, .. ;. ... :r.; -'. .-. .. : so. ; IL ... ){ : <: .) .~ The Congressional Office ot:4,. Since ''the r\is~l~and ii_npacts .'of Technology Assessm~nt says in a automation are only beginning, it is report released earlier this month essential that planning start now .. that computer-based automation Bchools in Fond du Lac and the area can improve manufact1,1ring produc~are responding to the challenge with tivity, product quality and working courses dealing with computers and conditions. That's great for the t-obotics, but whether the offerings manufacturer and for those who )re getting. to those who need it restay on the job, but holds little solace :mains to be seen. for the worker who is displaced by Planners and '. f orecasJers. will automation .. Still, there is greater ::hav~ to ~ecome:e. ,xtremely acc?rate hopefflr that worker today to :Qn ,. their crystal ball.:gazmgs, receive counseling and retraining J~specially in the ~ducational field, to and step quickly into another oc-_41ssure proper tiinjng in response to cupation. \ :.~he revolution.'
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USA TOOAY TUESDAY.JULY 3. 1984 38' Robot revolution won't steal all the jobs There they are, staling you cold in the face: the black and-w hi te numbers telling you that in six years, 100,000 industlial robots will have eliminated at least 75,000 USA factory jobs -and kept uncountable thousands of other new factory jobs from matertallzing at all. But, says a recent study by Congress' Office of Technol o~ssessmenl, the net c In overall employ ment brougbt on by the robot revolution "will not be mas sive for the remainder of the 1980s." SO there will be jobs lurk ing out there, just different ones. But not the ones you might expect, such as robot repair technicians. The USA's trade and vocational schools "have responded beautifully to the challenge of the robot age," says Walter K. Weisel, presi dent of the Robotics lndus trtes Association. The result We'll have all the electronics and hydraulics technicians needed to repair and run our robots for years to come. "The real shortage is for the upper-level people engineers," Weisel says. Be tween the oil-exploration boom of the 19705, with its need for petroleum and chemical engineers, and the computer boom ot the 19805, with its demand for electron ics engineers, ''The field of industlial engineertng. which is central to factory automa tion and robotics, has gone begging," Weisel says. ''That's where the real demand will be."
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RADIO N REPORTS# INC. 4701 WILLARD AVENUE, CHEW CHASE. MARYLAND 20815 (301) 656-4068 OFFICE OF TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT All Things Considered STATION WET A-TV NPR Network DATE May 11, 1984 5:00 P.M. Cl'TV Washington, D.C. SUBJECT Computer Use/OTA Study DAVID MOLPUS: A new government report concludes that American manufacturers should increase their ~se of computers to remain competitive. But if they do, the increased automation could well lead to higher unemployment in some areas. NPR's Tom Jelton reports. TOM JELTON:_ The Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, OTA, studied things like computers that solve engineering problems, machine tools that cut metal parts automatically, and robots that run automobile assembly lines. These are parts to the automated factory of the future, and the question for the OTA was whether they are good news or bad news for American workers. Doug Walgren, Chairman of the House Subcommittee on Science, Research and Technology, introduced the report at a news conference yesterday. Walgren was careful to say that computerized manufacturing makes industries more productive, but the Pennsylvania Democrat pointed out that the latest developments in factory automation show that we're moving into unexplored territory. REP. DOUG WALGREN: Automation in the past meant increasing the scale of the machine that was being used. Automation in the future is going to be replacing the human control of the process. JELTON: The OTA report, which Walgren endorsed, said that when automation makes industry stronger, workers benefit; but also that computers are not a panacea for manufacturing problems, and it focused on the impact pf automation on OFACES IN: WASHINGTON D.C. NEW YORK LOS ANGELES CHICAGO DETROIT AND OTHER PRINCIPAL CITIES Material supplied by Radio TV Reports, Inc. mav be used tor file and reference purposes only. It mav not be reproduced. sold or publicly demon;trated or exhibited.
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2 employment and the work environment. Republican Congressman Ed Zschau of California's Silicon Valley says he's disappointed the OTA report didn't endorse automation with more enthusiasm. Automation makes American factories more efficient, he says, and that makes them more competitive with foreign companies. REP. ED ZSCHAU: To give you a specific example, the latest computer introduced by Apple Computer is manufactured in a manufacturing plant that is fairly highly automated near my congressional district. And they're able to turn out one computer in less than a minute on a repetitive and consistent basis. So you not only have constant quality, the operations are exactly the same time after time, but you're able to do it with less labor. JELTON: But factories that_ use less labor employ fewer workers. The OTA report said that automation is not spreading so quickly that it will lead to higher national employment [sic] in the short term, but it did warn that regional unemployment problems, especially in the North-Central and Northeastern states, could get worse as metalworking industries in those areas become more highly automated. The OTA also examined the effects of automation on the work environment. Here again it reported a mixed picture. Harley Chaikin, a labor and technology analyst at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, was a consultant on the OTA report. Chaikin says his research on robots in auto assembly plants shows that jobs eliminated by robots are, for the most part, unsafe ones. So the robots do make work less hazardous. But it's also important, he says, to study the jobs that aren't eliminated when robots come on-the scene. HARLEY CHAiKIN: What we did is questioned how the work for those people who remain was affected. And of 19 workers interviewed in this particular study, the overwhelming majority felt that, in fact, there was more machine pacing, there was a faster pace of work, a more erratic pace of work, and, in fact, there was increased stress and dissatisfaction as a result of the system. JELTON: In his remarks yesterday, Democratic Congressman Walgren said the Federal Government should be prepared to help protect workers who lose their jobs to automation. He admitted that it would be politically difficult to advance that idea, however, since American companies have traditionally been left free to introduce technology in any way they wish.
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3 REP. WALGREN: We have therefore assumed that technological change was all positive. But I think we know that it's not. I don't know that that rises to the level.that you prevent it, but you--. but it only makes good sense to be very sensitive to what is going on. JELTON: The OTA report listed several policy options for the federal Government. Walgren predicted that the Democratic candidates could adopt some of the proposed programs as part of their political plBtforms. But Congressman Zschau, who's chairman of a Republican high-tech task force, says the government doesn't need to be involved. REP. ZSCHAU: I guaranty you that if we expand the industrial base of this country by being more competitive and providing better products, there'll be ample jobs. JELTON: In any case, the issue of what to do about automation will probably not be a major one in this campaign season. OTA project director Marjorie Blumenthal said yesterday that only a fraction of American businesses are using computerized processes in their manufacturing opeations.
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Wetlands
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fC.c111 A.n9rll'!1 iii1111'!l l.AR.GESf ,:'tl{(,111Afl0~ '" T)4l" wr:~T LOS l\rifiHfS r:,~1. (), 1.0S2.637 ,IIN. l. V)fl.iJ!J2 !l!{Bll!:!: --:""7-:.~. ,. g Up a Preci~i.is Resource. ".1.i1"-errc:ans are drying up millions. of acres of fl-price' supwrt,, that. enCQurage farhiers to '',v~ds--themarshes, bogsandinl~tnocrucial to !''. wetlands tQ put moreland'into production.Iil \~~.:..more slowly than in f:he l9?0s. But every n 'case do the laws _make a distinction betwe:en :ydr:farmers and developers still drain or fill about v uable wetlands and those that are environmen-'.,~_.000 acresof _wetlands for shopping centers, ~yexpendable. .. ~; farms and other projects. !Fhe Corps of Engin~ has relaxed its efforts in .~ is no imminent ecological disaster, but the recent years to spare wetlan~, and the ,federal )i~~ come to take 'a look at the environmental. gO\'ernment generally has cut,back'onfinanclngfor ~\*)CeS of continuing to fill and drain coutal-zone management and wetlands acquisition. w~iJB so that at least the country will know -;!'he-report notes also that coastal states generally ,wfltoo,:of the surviving we~dsare ecologically r~te the use.of wetlands but that inwld.itates "important and should be the last'togo, and which ddjiot. Yet only about 5,a of the nation~, wetlands ~.~developed without damage. :' ocean inlets; the rest are inland marshes and :'" ,"bafis the drift of. a new report by Washington's &ifimps. Qtilbsof Te:chnoJocx AMearnw that Sen. John H. ~ine wetlands scientists resist the theory that CBaiee (R-}l.I.) says reinforces his case for federal el\9ugh .is known about the role of wetlands in ~liase of threatened wetlands and for subsidies ~ure to manage them or to choose among them, ilo n'eipstates buy wetlands on their own. =y regulating !l()me so that they are spared from ,;.f,~~,.chairman <>t the Se!Jate's subcommittee ,change,-and leaving others-up for grabs. They :~1fi~tal pollution. would spend $50 million all e. for strict protection:, c,t, all wetlands" ~n the ,a.y.,Qver the next 10 years on federal. purchase of tl{eory that even the marginal areas could continue w~~di and a like ~ount for state purchase. to~e some contribution to'life. :;' ;--. -~ his amountsarei high or ,-0\V, the new rtt seems to USthat tlle:most important.contribu ~!certainly support.a; his contention t,Jlat .at a: tion-of the report is'.in calling t,Qe country's attention '~ there s_hould bea uniform policy covering talthe fact that nobody knows the answers because !t,ett:aads that now are treated case by case and nobody has taken a careful-lookat the state of the : cattdl as catch can. ~ nation's wetlands and their future. That being the t ... _P'Qi~1!1ample, the report says, many laws encourcase, anything that comes of Chafee's efforts along ;~e~~-'destruction of wetlands. Theyrange from the-lines of shaping'a uniform wetlands policy will Jn;~Wt credits for developing wetlands to be.all to the good.
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U.S. Wetlands Although the overall rate that the nation's wetlands arc being converted to other uses is not alarming, the continued incremental con version of wetlands, especially in certain in land regions of the country, may have signifi cant adverse ecological effects over the next few decades. A comprehensive report on wet lands, requested by the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, was released recently by Senator John H. Chafcc (R-R.I.), chairman of the Subcommittee. on Environ mental Pollution. The report outlines options for new federal measures that could lead to more cfTcctivc management of wetlands in the United States. Federal efforts to manage ~ctlands could be more effective if they were focused on higher value wetlands, although, because the value of individual wetlands in different re gions of the country have not been evaluated at this time, priorities for protection have not been established. The Office of Technology Assessment (OT A) has called for the federal government to continue or accelerate its ongoing mapping of wetlands, concentrating on areas under the greatest development pressure. The next step, OT A says, involves categorizing wet lands according to their relative values by policymakers in cooperation with regional groups. In this way, existing wetland pro grams can be more effectively focused on higher value wetlands. OT A suggests that Transactions, American Geophysical Union Vol. 65 No. 18 May 1, 1984 Congress could also broaden the scope of ex isting wetland programs so that all of the nat ural values of wetlands arc considered in managing the various leasing, regulat?~ and acquisition programs. At present, decmons about wetlands use are most often based on single values, such as wildlife habitat. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' regula tory program, established ?Y section 4~4 of the Clean Water Act, provides the maJor ave nue of federal involvement in controlling wet land use by regulating discharges of dredged or fill material into wetlands. For Corps-regu lated activities, annual conversions of wet lands were reduced by about 50,000 acres per year, or 50% of the acreage applied for. Conversions of inland, freshwater wetlands for agricultural purposes have been responsi ble for 80% of the wetland losses over the last 3 decades. Since the Corps' 404 program generally docs not regulate these.activities, 95% of the nation's wetlands, which arc locat cd in inland areas, arc not well protected by regulatory programs. OT A notes that most coastal wetlands arc reasonably well protected by a combination of section 404 and state regulatory programs. There arc about 90 million acres of vege tated wetlands remaining in the lower 48 states, with an additional 200 million acres classified as wetlands in Alaska. Between the mid-1950's and the mid-1970's, the annual rate of conversion in the lower 48 states was about 550,000 acres a year. Because rates of agricultural drainage have ~cclincd, OT A es timates that annual conversions arc now about 300,000 acres.-PMB
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Wl11 ttn111ii't1Hn' .~Juunml PROVIDENCE. Ir I i. ,~U XIJ
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Ccft 11tmutt mmtlh MIAMI, FLA. 0. 397,953 SUN. 489.t:OO A.PR 1984 8114..(W,Lff /Wetlands conversion assailed, r ,~ -:: -if/'i1t;\I Jlepo~t cites n~ed. _for nai~onal poHcy -.f t.,~11L_ By .JEFF NESBIT I. s~ News Service WASHINGTON Although the: statistics aren't alarming yet, the corttinued conversion.of wetlands in Florida an(!, the rest of the nation is beginning to devastate the environ ment,. according to a new congre;.._ sional stuc!,y. : .: A.,s a. #OpgaP, .measure, Congress needs to;develop: &'.coherent nation-. al W!!~ds polieySan~~;cGJt~~Jltrate: ()n prgtecting :~~_fgl1err;yaju!!:'~e!, lanc:iI~ liistead'!'6f ~ng to manage. as:'many:as possible-;'the'Qfflce of, IM:bnolqgy ~me;t: said in a 208-page reiiir( the nation's wetlands. ,,.f_r/11,:/J.i:i,1 In Florida~-for~ stan jhe OT A l study said tha(:&.a1tii~we~lands I has 1-.n iinmediate,,effect ,OD' temper atur.es: Drain~ agricultural areas in theiistate "were found to be five de~s :,colder in:1 the winter than werer stTound~ng, u~drainec!,. ar. eas." ... : . .. In a reporfto the U.S. National Park Serviceti,,lk has'. been ,1sugt gested that wetland drainage of'the Everglades may have;: inel'.eas frost action," said the OT A report. And in a study of cumulus clouds. in Florida, "lakes larger than one I mile in diameter exerted a notice-. able; effect on clouds in "the area. It_ has been hypothe~zed that wetl.and drainage could reduce summer thunderstorm activity in Florida ... leading in turn to regional rainfall deficits," 5a:id the OT A report. Although the ramifications aren't exactly new to Florida, which has actively debated the issue of wet lands conversion for years, the OT A study. is probably the first signifi1 cant effort in Washington to forge a national consensus on wetlands 1l01icy. Florida, unlike most states, has made wetlands conversion a vital part of its environmental debate. The. 1984 state Legislature, for instance, is planning to take up a variety of protection measures that would make it much harder for developers to tamper with the Everglades and other state wet lands Yet even Florida's _wetland i>Qli~ ; cies were criticized by the ot A. 1 .. Even for states with wetland;;: regulatory programs,.there may be'; gaps in wetlands coverage. "Floria& provides a good exaatple of a state that does not regulate some of the activites that threaten wetlands the most," with "drainage for agricultural uses a prime exam~ pie, the report said. ,. -~ In South Florida (rom 1972 to 1980, nearly '24,000 acres Qf wet lands were drained and converted to agricultural use while just 655' acres were urbanized, it said State environmentalists have., gued that if much.,more wetlan~s' drainagI'. is allow~ the state's ,fish and wildlife population as weir as its fresh water supply will disap pear au disastrous pace. CurreiitJy, almost a third.of. Florida is covered by water at least part of the year. "'Drainage of wetlands in South Florida has beeb cited as contribut ing to flooding, drought .. saltwa ter intrusion, reduction of fish and wildlife resources and water quality problems in Lake Okeechobee,'' said the OTA study. In addition, Florida's wetlands protect at let5t fiye species on the federal endangered and threatened species -including the Everglades kite, American crocodile and Atlan, tic.saltmarslr snake. In the rest of the United States, wetlands make up about 5 percent of the land mass. Historically, marshes, swamps, bogs, bottom lands and tundra were considered as "wasteland," said the OTA study. \1
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Landsat
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SCIENCE WASHINGTON, O.C. w. 153,000 APR 6 1984 Landsat Sale Nears Resolution The long and bitter argument over the commercialization of Landsat ap pears to be nearing a resolution. A number of administrative and legisla tive efforts have begun to converge, with the ultimate goal of getting the government out of the remote sensing business entirely (Science, 12 August 1983, p. 632). First, the Commerce Department announced last week that seven com panies have put in bids to operate the existing Landsat system, based on a request for proposals that went out in January. Ironically, the Communica tions Satellite Corporation, COMSAT, declined to bid on the grounds that it was overextended with other projects. COMSA T's earlier proposal to take over Landsat and the weather satel lites was what set the current com mercialization process in motion in the first place (Science, 11 February 1983, p. 752}. Next, although the bids are in limbo for the moment as everyone waits for Congress to specify its groundrules for the transfer, that action now seems very near. The House Committee on Science and Technology is putting the finishing touches on a bill {HA 5155) calling for a phased transfer to private contractors, and the Senate subcom mittee on space has begun to consider a very similar bill (S 2292). In the initial phase of the plan, the contractor would not have to buy the satellites themselves but would have the opportunity to educate potential Landsat users and thus to develop the Briefing market, something both NASA and Commerce have done very little of. Then, during a 6-year transition period, the government would subsidize new satellites. Finally, the private op erators would be on their own. Central to the plan is preservation of the so-called "open skies" policy, which guarantees every Landsat user-domestic or foreign-equal access to the data. Open skies is very much in line with a recent report of the Office of Tech nology Assessment {OTA), -which stressed ihe importance of open skies to U.S. foreign policy. The free inter national flow of information is critical in the related area of weather data, for example. Moreover, Landsat has been a potent symbol in the less developed countries that American space activities can be an opportunity rather than a threat; many are suspi cious that proprietary data would be used for economic exploitation. This does go against the grain of some of the potential Landsat opera tors, who maintain that the remote sensing business will not be profitable unless they can sell proprietary infor mation. "[But) we made a philosophical decision a long time ago," says one House staffer. "You could either have narrow dissemination of high cost data, or wide dissemination of low-cost data. We wanted the latter." Commerce Secretary Malcolm Bal drige has said that he would prefer to let the marketplace decide the open skies question but that he is basically quite willing to go along with the con gressional plan. Swift passage thus seems likely. One interesting possibility has been raised by the OTA, however. The na tional security community seems to have discovered the Landsat data only recently. But during the last year or so, it has suddenly emerged as one of the largest single users: the Central Intelligence Agency alone went from 440 scenes purchased in 1982 to more than 5000 in 1983. Most of the uses seem to involve nonclassified projects such as mapping and crop monitoring. But once the Landsats are transferred to the private sector, the national security community may be tempted to launch its own satellites. under government control-which means that Washington may end up paying for a separate Landsat system anyway.-M. MITCHELL WALDROP
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ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH ST. rows. MO. I), 236,888 s. 430,0.~ Science Commercializing satellites ... In March 1983, the Reagan Administration proposed transferring ownership of the Na tional Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's satellites. But in November 1983, Congress enacted legislation to prevent the commercialization of these satellites. A General Accounting Office report discusses how these satellites are used by federal agencies and foreign governments and how users would be affected by private ownership of the satellite. Copies of "Effects on Users of Commercializing Landsat and the Weather Satellites" are free from the GAO, Docu ment Handling and Information Services Facility, P.O. Box 6015, Gaithersburg, Md., 20760. In a related study, the congressional Office of Technology Assessment says that transferring one of the satellites-the Landsat system, which observes land-to the private sector could jeopardize impor tant foreign policy advantages that the existing system has provided. In "Remote Sensing and the Private Sector," the OTA notes that the Landsat system has been used to promote the free international flow of information and to advance U.S. technology. The report summarizes the requirements Congress may want to impose if the Landsat system is transferred to private owners and discusses the social, economic and political benefits of U.S. remote sensing programs. Copies are $6 from the Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.: 20402. -Jennifer Belton NATIONAL JOURNAL 4/14/84 745. ~---ro-Ri~asons Not To Sell Landsat ne of the more suspect proposals that the Reagan administration has put forth is the plan to ,ell to private int,rests the Landsat satellite system. Lanasat is the photo-taking satellite that is used for mapping the earth for commercial purposes. Like the U.S. weather satellites, Landsat has been hailed as one of the prime examples of the peacefUl uses of outer space, and there are many in Congress who rightly question the wisdom of the sale. Critics of the deal now have some additional ammunition: The Offlc.e....oL TechnQ~!rumk the scientific research arm of Congress. has found that selling Landsat would jeopardize such foreign policy objectives as "preserving the principle of free international now of information and helping less-developed countries to see our use of space as an opportunity rather than a threat." The OT A notes that Landsat has advanced technology and is a useful supplement to military and spy satellites. What is perhaps even more important is the OTA's finding that "until the market for remote-sensing data expands substantially subsidizing a private owner could cost the federal government as much as the current operating expenses" of Landsat. Even the proponents of the Landsat sale concede that a long-term federal subsidy would have. to be part of the deal. This raises a germane question: If Uncle Sam is going to be paying most or all of the tab for Landsat, why sell the satellite system in the first place? That is the question Congress should be asking.
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Bus1vit$.S NWF.s 1\yt-i\ (C,)'
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Gas Decontrol
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ENERGY TODAY WASHINGTON, DC SEMI-MONTHLY MAR 26 1984 0 r OLD GAS DECONTROL: SUPPLY RESPONSE? (o:J.2/'1 y Recovery of natural gas from old domestic fields could eventually be increased by lQ percent to 15 percent if Federal price controls are removed. However, decontrolled priceswould be substantially higher than present levels, and the additional supplies would be recovered only gradually, perhaps over 20 or 30 years. These are conclusions contained in a new staff memorandum by the Congressional Of~9e Q.f T;!}polq~-MsfilHi@PtnJ~A~ which examined the dec~ntrol is~ue. 'fhe study was at the request of the House Energy and commerce Committee, which is considering several gas pricing legislation proposals, including total deregulation, which is supported by the Reagan Administration. Currently, "old" gas reservoirs (wells in production before April 20, 1977) which account for most of the nation's proven supplies, are subject to permanent controls under the Natural Gas Policy Act. All other categories of domestic gas production will be deregulated on January l, 1985 under NGPA. Old gas deregulation is under consideration primarily as a means of generating new exploration and production revenues for producers, and of "sending appropriate signals" to gas consumers. But the Energy and Commerce Committee is also interested in knowing how much additional gas could be obtained if old fields are decontrolled. It has been "generally assumed," according to OTA, that the amount of gas recoverable from oil fields is "essentially fixed." This was one reason why Congress imposed permanent controls on old gas when NGPA was enacted. Last year, however, an analysis by Shell Oil company was submitted to the committee indicating that a doubling in the average price of old gas (to approximately $3.50 per million Btu} would "stimulate additional reserves of 52 trillion cubic feet," about an 11 percent increase. The committee asked OTA to make an independent evaluation of the potential supply response of old gas decontrol. The OTA concluded that decontrol could indeed result in a substantial increase in recovery from old. fields, perhaps as much as 65 trillion cubic feet, or more than 3 years' us consumption at current levels. The memorandum also points out, however, that as much as 35 trillion cubic feet of additional gas may eventually be produced even without decontrol because of certain incentive provisions built into NGPA. But OTA urges caution in taking any figures as "conclusive estimates" because of the many variables involved and because there is generally limited experience in gauging the price responsiveness of gas production. -.(Staff Memorandum on the Effects of Decontrol on Old Gas Recovery, available without charge from the Office of Technology Assessment, Congress of the us, Wash., DC 20510. The memorandum is part of an ongoing OTA assessment on us natural gas availability. For further information, contact S.E. Plotkin or R. Rowberg. '1',:,7,:,r,hnno, ?f')?/??t::-?7 7,i I
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~tudy looks at decontrol, old. gas recovery Cc29?/ By CARL REDMAN. exceeds the price a producer can expect: Advocate staff writer for the gas, he is inclined to abandon his well. If gas prices are increased, wen: Thenation's,natural gas reserves are abandonment is often delayed. apparently as llll.lclU function of pdce Infill drilling; Since the well pattern as they are of supply, and decontrol of in an old field will not tap all of the gas.; natural gas prices would.stimulate ii, in the reservoir, putting new wells significant increase.!ri:the recovery of between the old ones can open some. gas from.oldfielda. ... pockets and tap gas that would not have That's one of. the conclusions the staff been produced. of the federal Offi~,,Di.l'.~~ Well stimulations. Certain well Assessment drew in a recent treatments like explosive or memoranauin on the. effects of hydraulic fracturing of the reservoir decontrol on old gas recovery. rock. can open new flows of gas to old Begun as an analysis of a Shell Oil Co. wells. report on the potential for recovery of But the cost of any m.ethod. must be old gas generally gas in reservoirs balanced.against the re".enue that can. tlrat went into production prior to the be. expected from additional: gasNatural. Gu Policy Act of 1978 the recovery,.theO'l'A memorandum said. OT A memorandum went a step.furtherIn its 1983 analysis. Shell Oil and looked at,"the-general. potential for pr~di~ed that full price decontrol of obtaining, additional gas: from the, natural gas would create economic nation's older fields.'' incentives that would yield an Thete.~11 .. he: 11;,u:tet~tiye,'.';~.,~U trilijoa.cubic feetcof gas answer"'t'. :.l~e'que,,tlq1fqf :w!tltt1mtt::'.'ftcnn:nrct~Ul'Cf/$-. decontrol(f!would do to the nation's After reviewing the Shell analysis natural gas reserves _because there. are and. data fr.om a variety of other simply too many variab~es at play; the sourc~. the OT A staff estimated that if Ql'.Areportsaid. otdgas could reach $3.50 to $4 per Thingifliketbe kind. a.pd '.extent of million BTU hy the end of the decade, decontrol. market. conditions and "the potential 'old gas' reserve growtH recovery technology play important from delayed well abandonments, infill roles in any scenaria, the memorandum drilling and well stimulations is about said. 43-65 TCF, or about a 10-15 percent While quantities cannot be pinpoiJlted increase in total gas recovery from the with any accuracy, it is safe to conclude nation's old gas fields." ''that highe_r prices for old gas, over-and A great deal. of those reserte: ... above original contract prices, have additions will be captured under the added to reserves in the past and can ,(;:urrent NGPA pricingS1,5tem anyway, addstill moreiD-the.~; -,: ~:-~~--... :: ,the.OTkstaff said;~:... c __ : :,There aretllree oukmetlloibfor,, ... The .. NGPA; Q'tk :;aid, alrea4J m:overing 1ldditional:pit' f~old:,; '~vides.some price-incentives. that ~,.,,iouftees: ........ .---. ~-~~:-~ Delaying '!ell abandQmn~tr When ~bECONTROL 4K) C, I.!.. the cost of getting gas out of the ground ,, ,. .. '!~., sf-.. ... Jr .t ,, ... .r MORNING ADVOCATE BATON ROUGE LA D. 77,180 SUN. 121.315 APR 29 1984 B~"t.'\'!'-U.rs
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. .. 1,...:. Decontrol---.. ---------~tinued from 1K) In Its report. Shell estimated NGPA could lead to Increased recovery policies would result.in only 3 TCF in regardl~s of w:hether there is full additional old pa reserves, ancl those ~trol of old gas prices: would come from infill drilllllg; NGPA provides for decontrol or Attbeaamettme.Sbellestimatedfull price escalation of most old intriatate decontrol would provide 27 TCF in reserves by 198$. reserves-from delayed abandonment, NGPA provides fordecoatrolby uadditlonal18TCFfromfurtberinfill U85 or 198t ol.~ gas from infiJl wells drilllnl aad 7 TCF from-. well in old intrastate fiel4'aad poutbly stimaJatlon. 'nlat'la total of UTCJ' in .SOJDe infill gu from: unco~tt.9.d addlUonalold gas reservesasa ~of of old interstate.fields., .. full decontrol. according to SleJL ... NGPAprovidefJincelltivepriciesfOt While~ Sllell-! may. have plJlduction enhancement~'* tlle-"8Nne ddltions to'aD equiv~t fl.SO per miJl1on :' &tiat would reaalt ~er,the..NGPA, ;otnserves addect. = there is no doubt tut"decontrotwm,: -!i NGPA provideian 1Dcentlvep1tc,.: addsubstaatlal'newresenes totaeold ofef3.80 per millloa BTU for so-ealled ~resenebue,.9:tbeOTAmemollld. ''itripperas,. gas from welli OTA staffen: .. timated NGPA prod~ less -..10,000 cab&c feet a poUcies WOUid yield: 20-35 TCP in .daz. : add1Uoaal resenei' and that full ; 'However, u much as 19-31 TCJ'of deeontrol would turn up 19-38 TCJ' tu potential (4M5 TCP') additions more. cQUldbe lost.witbout full decontrol or But, -becaue recent upertence Is. some other new npply 1Dcent1ves. limited.it is difficult to guagetbe effect{ .. although this I0111nrillbe reduced iUbe of mcentivesco recovery activity, OTA NGPA'sstripper well and p~ llid.. enhancement lneenUvea prove to be effective ID addmg,aew Nll8I M.!. t,be: -, OTA memorandunuafc~ ... : .. ; .. ;Despite~ NGP,Aolnc:enUve ~'-'.: for lnflll wells .... tJ1aU1. aew weUI<; drilled old fields ~--'ftlbeea!Jlll,::r: a,few infW pro~&Gtlie NGPAT-f 'Jtice eeWnc of#71r~IDill1oll lffltit isn't tbe onlyreasoa foi'U.lactofJafilr.; : '.drilllilg.OTAsald.. :, <:. ,:.:;t>:-ecs::,, .: "ADotller majorbirrterlitllacatriimt :gas surplus. wlaicb:diacoarqes all.bat tbe most promisiaf gu tavatments. tbe memorandumiaid. "Otberpoteatlal. :barrien include producer priortUes;. J)J'Oblems with ot&er producen la Uie ume field who. bave different. :fivnqzan.t plau and op,nn11tt1OD. by. pJpe)lnes." .. --. :--Beca1111it oi'lglnatedU ID_ of the Sbell Olhlecontrol repo~ tile :OTA.memorandum mates coutut ~erences to Sllell-atatemeitl and ~-~~ .:.A.
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Nuclear Power
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WlJt ~rlll \lurk Winw.u NEW YORK, ttY. D, 873,255 SUN. 1,430,358 APR 13 1984 8VllRf{-ff':I I m1r~!Je ... :::1 Does Nuclear Po'Wer Have a Future? f The nuclear industry ts next doo~~ tU~ But the cri~cs' f~recasts could go awry too. De No new-power plants have been ordered liDce 1978, mand for electricity may suddenly shoot up again. and unfinished plants that have already cost billions Coal plants mfiht have to be curbed, or expensively are being canceled. With some notable exceptions, modified, because their emissions contribute to acid utilities are now finding that nuclear plants cost far .:.rain and to the teared climatic warming lmown as more to build .than expected, and operate less effl. tbe &lobal greenbouse eff~. ciently .. Public dlsqutet about nuclear safety condnThere ts, therefore, a strona case for preserving ues unabated. the nuclear option by developing anew 1eneration These troubles may seem terminal, but utilltles of nuclear plants. The present plants, adapted from are more to blame than the technology. Nuclear submarineproputsion units, were conceived 10 to 15 power deserves a second chance. years qo;. they shouldn't be bard to improve on. A tboughtfu1 study by the ar:!onal Office of Technololaa;Alsessment JUUests t new reactors Nuclear power, says a critic, Irwin Bupp, ts,r" eb1ild be safer, 1o as to reptn public .confi-"the Jut pap of 19th-centary mecbanlcal, civil and: dence, as well as cheaper to build and operate. electrical qtneertna. It'a Just applYfnl a lot of Inatitutional mechanisms would need to cbanae steel and .concrete and a lot of beat. .. True, the too. Tbe lea well manapd ut.tltttes miabt have present type of nuclear reactor ts. a dinosaur that service companies run tbatr reactors. Licenstna has surely-breathed its last. After disasters that could be streamlined if reactors were all of a standstretcb.from Dlablo Canygn to Zimmer, from Sea-. ard destp, Instead of custom-builtaa at present. brook to Shoreham, it's bard to envtsap any,utl.Uty. But utillttes have little enthusiasm tor aupport-orderinl another. ma new reactor desiln, Manufacturers worldna on The nuclear industry.bas Iona assumed that its .. new desfana -are doing .so with Japanese utilities~ future lay in the breeder, a reactor that helps ex-_ The Department of Eneray baa for years put the tract from uranium the comiderable energy content bullt of its effort into tbe breeder, and with that left untapped by conventional reactors. That fore, dead, doesn't lmow what to do next. Unless the nu. cast, like so many others about nuclear power, was clear industry can win public su'ppon for a new gen wrong. Acknowledgins that breeders won't make eration of conventional reactors; its resurrection economic sense for another half-century, Congress will take place only in Japan. last year ~led the demonstration breeder at Nuclear power was developed too fast, and Clinch River. some utilities lacked the skills 'to handle it safely So the nuclear induatry now finds itself at a and efficiently. But any technoloo capable of dellvdead end. and its critics would like to leave it there, ering safe, cheap, clean power, which the best ot relying on coal and conservation until the arrival of even the present reactors do, ts too valuable to subtler tecbnoloates Uke solar cells. ~~the trash can of history. _j ..,..
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. Rochester Times-Union ROCHESTER. N. Y. 0. 116.725 MAY 2 1934 8U1'1'ft:U:'S ft :,. -~ > '. : ;,. .... '~ ,,. _! Jnnmy L. Thomas. ,__, TIIOma L. Cllapple. s-.tllty --, Georp J. Daatyck Robert H: Giles J.' Ford Hlifrman Read Kinpbury : Bob and~ Vtctor PublWaer Editor Managi1111 Editor Editor of the Editorial Page Editorial-Page Writers I .... Nuclear. poWer:: .. : Has. it a future:?r nuclear power plant in fiye yeen. The big mistake was going too far with an untested, t.ecbnology. But delay gives us time t.o learn more about nuclear power, and t.o observe the plants already built. ~.' Recently we deplored the debacle at the unfin. OBSTACUS PERSIST also: exorbitant con ished N'me Mile 2 nuclear power plant: the horren-struction -costs. poor management, radioactive :: dous.cost.ovemms, the Jackadaisical 'M'lananahip, waste, lingering. :Questions 11~ safety, Jack of the )apses in safety inspections. . public confidence. Perhaps these problems can't be Utilities all over the country have similar prob-overcome. But there are _ways t.o address them 1ema. Nuclear plants t.hat seemed feesiole 10 or 15 without.making them worse. ye8J'8 ago have become white elephant.a. It must begin, as columnist Jouph Kraft recentSo what should the nation do? Let the 85 ly argued on this: page, by putting the nuclear ezisting planta run through their cycles, then power effort under strong federal leadership. It is pull the plug on nuclear power forever? foolhardy t.o have dew.ens of inexperienced utilities Or is th~ a way tq keep the nuclear option the country dabbling in cust.om-made plants alive, learning from the. plants built too quickly, provtded by various venders. This compounds the trying out new designs on a modest scale and regulation nightmare, and the utilities have shown at a deliberate pace; seeing if, for. all the fault.s, it t.hey simply can't cope witb:the.avalanche of safety may yet have a useful role? requirements. that have followed the Three THE QUFSTION ista because electrical Island bl~ demand IJUlY aurp agaf:8_~ .,...;.,.;;. ... p lanta What could the federal government do? A recent . .. --.. repon q1ogy M@!: of every kind must be rep eventually, because, t ibil'..:..-. c:onservation alon8'may.not~ becauae;otber !!SP _pos!L l1,a:-,, energy aourees also have their drawbacks. 0 The government could take the lead, much as Oil is costly; the oveneas supply is. unpredict,. it has in waste disposal, in researching and"devel able. Coal is extracted at a terrible human price; opinJ safer reactors .. Sweden, for example, is ex when burned, it contn'butes t.o acid rain and the. perimenting with a supposedly "foolproof" design. greenhouse effect:. Solar and wind power 8l'Q still in A standard design would.reduce the time and cost their infancy. of licensing-reviews. Moreever, the moment is propitious for a delib0 The government could make utilities prove erat.e re-examination of nuclear power. Electhey are capable of undertaking a nuclear project. trical demand is alack. Soaring int.erest rates a To further allay public fears, Congress could and construction eoeta have tempered-the utilities' .-mil:tlyJimit themuaber4119W,p)anta. .. .. .. instincts t.o gellop ahead with nuclear plant Fe4eral sent the nation int.o ita giddy construction. There hasn't been a new order for a flirtation _with the power of at.oms. Now strong federal leadersJup is needed. to' see .if. there t anything t.o salvage. a 8
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WASHINGTON. DC. STARS AND STRIPES IEULY APR 12 1984 BVHRf1 Poln-t ot View Nuclear Power Questioned The fate of the nuciear power in dustr;. has been the subject of discussion ever since the accident at Three Mile Island in 1979. Questions about the safet)' of nuclear power still abound, as does skepticism about the credibility of me nuclear power industry. However, behind the questions about nuclear power is the everpre scnt need for the United States LO formulate a long-term policy for the generation of electrical energy. .The Office ofTechnojngy e1'5':SSm$J1t (OT A), an arm of the Uaited Stai.es Congress has reicased a report addressing the status of the nuclear power industry and the likelihood of the increased use cf nuclear power after the year ~To no one's sur;:,rise, the OTA r:ports that unless public perceptions change and unless im orovements are made in the iecnnology and management of ::iuciear power p~ts, no new ;,iants wi!i b~ ordere.i. The oni~new electrical energy generated by nuciear plants will be from nuclear power plants already u."laer construction. The strong public: opposition and numerous regulations have caused utility companies to cancei order$. for new nuclear power plants and even to hait cons!:ucuon on some pia:m ;n which millions of dollars have a.iready been invested. lr. addi:ion. tr.::-uncertain:y abou: how much the demand for cle.:.:ridry wi!'. grow. th:-hi&!: c.:.pita! costs. ar,d operating. prob h::ns have ca.used nu:lear p:ams 10 bec~me unpopula: with utility rna:-l2.g~rs.. The imoonant ouest1on :s. can we By Representative Edwin B. Forsythe afford !O rule out the nuclear power option? The Arab oil embargo, besides driving up the price of oil to unprecec:ientecl levels, illustrated the necessity of a diverse energy ba.~. Coal-fired plants for future elec trical energy gene:-ation are attrac tive i:>ecause they arc easy to operate, have relatively low con struction costs and the United States has an estimated 200-year reserve of coal. Howeve::, coal-fired pl.ants present environmental proolcms as a result of the sulfur oxicies emiaed into the atmosphere. Congressman Edwin B. Forsythe (R-NJ) is the ranking minority Member of the House Merchant Marine and Fisheries Committee. The mos: notable problem is acid rain. Not even scruboers in the emission stacks solve al! the prob lems anc! coal plants are no cheaper to operate than nuclear piants. ;,lants. Oil continues to be expensive~ a fuel for ~nerating electricity and is valuable for other uses, such as automobile and jet fuel and to make petrochemical products. Natural gas is more ,uited to heating or ma.'1ufac:uring. :ises than to generating elec:ric.al energy. And, me alternative eiectrical energy production methods. su:h as solar and winci energ)'. are net a, a stage where the:, couid reliably supply a significant portion ~f :t,c country's ci:-::trical energy necci,. lf the United States i~ -~\er ic move towarC: nuclear energ) .a.gain. it wi!l ::-e because public coniidenc-=has b:er; restored at evejy 1evc! from construction t.'lrough operation and reguiation of the indus:l"). Public confidence will also not return unless ali :ne nuclear powe~ plants in operation ;,crform reliably and safely. The OT A report sta,es that some of the problems ;;laguini; :hr; nuclear power industry tociay resulted be:::ause of :he newness cf the tecitnc!ogr ar.d tri~ underestima,ior: b~ some utilities and contractors abc,u! ,he diffi:ult'. of operating and constrcc:.ing a nuclear ;:m .. er pla.,:. A majo!' .;ornmit.rr.ent tc, :i~!ear power had been made by utilities across the country oefore the first nuclear po~e:pian~ wa: eve;-com plete::!. Thereiore. ex;,ens:vc retroactive changes ha\'~ haj :o be made that could b:-: incor;,o:-a:ed easily in designs for r.ew pi:.nts. If nuc-1:ar power is to play an important role :n ti:;:: fu:ure. some :;i stitutional chang::s :nav have tc :,: made and a soiutior. wH; .:.lso h;ist to be tour,.! for :he ::,orag.e of nuclear was,e. Howc\er, tile func.a':nent.al prob i em of th~ so'.!rce fo~ el~:ric.:.:.: energy generaticr: ::;. th: :\1,ure re mains tc ::,e soivcd. The limid Staie,, has a ;,ower:'..i! incentive :o s:.:.:cessfu!~~ pl2:.. fo:"" ::., fJ:ur:.; "!:1e:g;-neejs ~ecau~:.Q. rehabl: er;:~;y '.)iJPi'i~. free frorr: ,n. te:-nz.~ion:;.. \,\' Z-.ir:-~! a:1C ::rise~, i~ :ritk:al to i:..SS.u:ing a:, ~x:.ar:.cied ar::-: stead) e~ono:n:v and the-s~.::;ri!'.i' 0 oa~ nation. lt ma: be that :iuclca~ energy i, the onlv viable choice. bu! i: wi11 never employed ,dthout p~t:,;;;: acccpta,nce.
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E ncou raging High-Tech no logy Development
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.1ul1TLAND, ORE. JOURNAL OF COMMERCE 0. 5,230 MA.R 19 1984 BU!J..f?EU.E'S --~----,-------H/GH-TECH INDUSTRY :': ., :~i :~(:~OTA gives tips to increase development success T I '". _,\ ~; '' _,: :,.,. state and 1 o ca 1 gov-and technology transfer, f-ma industries. 3r~ments, universities, and usua}ly with. ~,focus on imj 1;,. .~-: ,,: _.. ... '.,,.,: '1 l'a 1 ~, 1 t :-.:Jio'.single factor ~~plains pr1v~te ~ector ~roups a~e ~-pr?vmg. t~ ~nk~ges between lJII .,,, ;,, ,i., 1 1 ., ._, 1 1 whr some com~umttes and commg ~cr~asmg_ly ~ct1ve m ~vers~t1es a,nd mdustry and .. 1111 ;: ., /; r~g1ons h~ve been ~ore suc-promotmg mnovahon and mcteasmgthes~whichrej ~ ~~fuLtban others m nurtur-high-technology industrial de-search. ~sul~ ~ome ;avail-1 ! 1 j 1 ing and benefiting from high-velopment, according to a able to mdustry; technology development, -background paper just re- Human capi~l, including : : according tQ the OTA report. leased by the Congressional improved science and engi-nology-based ~ompanies; improvements, incubator' "-A strong research univer-Office of Technology Assess-neerlng training, special Financial capitaf, both di-facilities ,for entrepr~neu,rs, sity, skilled labor pool, avail fuent. training or retraining pro-rect (in the form of tax or research andsci~ceparks able finaricjng, the presence lJTA. examines a wide grams for technical workers, breaks, industrial,revenue ;,~et ~side for resear<;h or
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)Mayor asks f irme".f or 'J91~~~ jJ9h' By sl'm SCH!ATJ:tER T C h "\ Staff Wrn[!AGEONS :ti Mt' Mayor Henry Cisneros yester day challenged every business In San .. Antonlo to create at least orie new job In 1984 for graduates of the. city's hig!t schools and colleges. ..,_ ... Cisneros announcecFhls 'fJobs for San Aiitonto Grads" idea In: apress conference. at Cltyi HaUt where. he said1he ho~ the city's unemployment rate -would stay steady at 4.5 percent for the rest _. of the year .. '~San Antonio. Is growtng_ and:-' : -~ .. businesses wil~\ have goocE~n ''. YOR HENRY CISNEROS Please turn to NEW /5C Issues challenge New job idea ~i~~i~--;~~~no~.i~ .. c1eve1opinent 1 NEW/lrqm JC t,,-'q~ri;i~isaid the r~port cited to add positioris," Cl~ne_ros said, a~proxim11,tel~ _20 cities nationl. noting that his progr~: c_o_uld. add wide ,fo_r_ -t. he.rr' !fforts__ to attract 10,000 new jobs to the San, Anti>'. high-tech~~logy! jobs. and that nio workforce. i. : : Austl~ ,and. San, Antonio were the The jobs plan is m _:erecf after .. only Texascities Jiamed. :two -~mil.tr' progra 1 ;1_n1 Balti~:} !, C)T~ ''1s\-,ajt,i l!lBency that premore and Delaware, hie~, we~:'. :p11,res 'ba~k'groun'd 'reports on _both successful in red cing unemscientific and-; 'technical matters :~:.ment in those ar~,c1sneros for 'co~gress; '. ; ,. Delaware Gov., rre?.s!ltHi. Th:e "OTA'"'documeil\ sa_j~ 'the font's. program includ jri (agtee{i~~ay'l~s :~,!~t~ti~olb~, pi~n~, the, ment.,_that schools wold improve h1ghtechnology high scl'!ool, the their-training of studepts, so busi-. University. of Texas at San Anto nesses,.would not havel;excuses for nlo!s' engineering .program, the not hirtn'g'. the graduates. :Vista Verde South projec;t, and the Cisneros also cited two encourEconomic De:velopinent Foundaaging_ -~i-gures for Saji Antonio's tlon's-m_ arket.ing efforts _were/ job ptcture. One. w s. the 4.? examples of good p~g~ms: unemployment rate February,-' .,. only the second time\ e rate' has been less than 's pe~ nf. ln four .. years. Two, a state ~udy iiiwed San Antonio with the 's 'ie's second highest_ rate of job er ation _at 4:5 percent;'. Midland had the: highest rate in'l983 at 8 perc t. San Antonio's effoJs to attract high-technolbgy job~(have also been recognized in an...Office..of Technology Assessment report on '1, THE LIGHT SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS D. l?.3,489 SUN. 187.347 APR 1 l984 Bu~~
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AP-R 1984 .... u ........ uu ,. ... States Promote High-Tech States are actively promoting technological innovation and high technology development, according to a study released by the (;.QJ)lt~sional .Office or Technology Assessment (OT A). States are not merely copying each other's activities, but are initiating programs to meet their own needs, the OT A concluded. About one-third or the state pro grams were primarily training pro grams. Many state programs help firms locate seed or venture capital, but few states provide risk capital themselves. Most high-tech initia tives have been launched in the last three years and are too recent to for mally evaluate. States surveyed with high-tech nology programs had growth in high tech employment sufficient to offset what would otherwise be a decline in manufacturing employment, the OTA reported. The OTA examined a wide variety or high-tech initiatives by state and local governments, universities, and private sector groups in Technology, Innovation, and Regional Economic Development, Background Paper #2. It is available from the OPO, Superintendent or Documents, Washington, D.C. 20402, OPO 052-003-00942-1. Texas won out over other states and cities in persuading Microelec tronics and Computer Technology Research Corp. to locate a high technology research center in Austin. Texas Oov. Mark White formed a steering committee from business and other leaders statewide and pledged to raise $23.5 million from ~-businesses, foundations and indi viduals for MCC. The key for North Carolina's economic prosperity rests with ini tiatives to help small businesses, ac cording to Kirsten Nyrop, executive director of the newly-created N.C. Technological Development Author ity. Prospects for North Carolina in high-tech were related by Nyrop in the February issue of North Caro lina. High-tech companies employ about 147,100 North Carolinians accounting for 6 percent of all jobs. State investments in new technology initiatives amount to some $41 million for fiscal 1984-SS. i
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Commercial Biotechnology
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.. ~ BUSINESS WEEK NEWYORK NY "' !;l!'!f'l,28!'.! MAY. 21 1984 Buqgeu.rs REGULATORS 4uut..eij iJlV"-=-1..,l, t.,U\,; t,JUUU\,. .A.iLV1U '-U-..: _tJU-tential hazards of gene splicing, or whether additional legislation is needed. The panel also intends to evaluate the role of the committee at the National Institutes of Health that approves re combinant DNA experiments. The committee oversees safety guidelines for laboratory experiments, but it has no regulatory sanctions over industry, and compliance with its rules is voluntary. The Administration's velvet-glove approach reflects growing awareness that the U. S. lead in biotechnology is threatened by offshore competitors. A report issued by the congressional Qffice of Technolog:x Assessment in ~1!,Jl.Uary, for example,, warned that a real threat ex ists in the rapid development of competi~ tors in. such countries as Japan. At the same time, the government i===================-------------....... ------------= ........ ---t must clearly come up with a comprehen~ sive plan t.o regulate the bioteeh indus-TH E WATCHDOGS-MOVE IN ON :1\tll::ra!1::~c:r::I;~e~xrc~:i:: of environmental. groups-headed by BIOTECH~BUT GENJIV writer Jeremy Rifkin, president of the i-----------,--I._, -----=---=----====1 Foundation on Economic Trends-to For years federal regulat.ors have been eying the fledgling biotechnol ogy industry. Although gene splie ing promises t.o produce a cornucopia of revolutionary drugs and other prod ucts-and a commercial bonanza-there is concern that modified organisms or their novel products could create en, tirely new environmental and health problems. Now the federal government is trying t.o come t.o grips with the regulat.ory problems that the new industry poses. But the traditional adversarial. relationship between government and industry is noticeably absent The Reagan Admin istration is bending over backward t.o avoid regulations that could cost the U.S. it.a leadership among the industrial nations in biotechnology. ''It seems that the Administration wants t.o move ahead briskly but keep the U.S. lead," says Jack Doyle, a researcher at the Environment.al Policy Institute in Washington. l'ROTBCTING THK. PU8UC. In early May the Cabinet Council on Natural Resources & Environment brought together 14 agencies-from the Environmental Protection Agency t.o the State Dept t.o develop a framework for regulating gene splicing. A key function will be t.o avoid "federal actions that could affect the industry's competitiveness," says one Administration official. The new panel replaces a task force that includes the EPA, the Food & Drug Administration, and the Agriculture Dept. That group, which was formed a till year ago by EPA Administrator William D. Ruckelshaus, bogged down in disputes over which agency would take j the lead role. "We .are a little behind THE EPA 'S RUCKEI.SHAUS: HIS PANEL GOT BOGGED DOWN IN INTERAOENCY DISPUTES the learning curve," says Ruckelshaus. The new :'panel will be headed by White House science adviser George A. Keyworth II. It wi1l ~termine whether existing laws and regulations, such as those that "re11:Ulate new dru2a. adechallenge the NIH committee's approval of an experiment by scientists at the University of California at Berkeley. The scientists planned t.o treat a potato field with a modified bacterium that could protect crops from frost damage. Rifkin is seeking an injunction against the ex periment in federal court in Washington. A ruling was expected in mid-May. 'AN EARLY START. The Industrial Biotech nology Assn., a 30-member trade group, has been vocal in its support of some regulation. "The public deserves a cer tain amount of regulation," says Harvey S. Price, executive direct.or of the IBA, which includes gene-splicing startups and drug and chemical producers. But the companies argue that new legisla tion _aimed specifically at biotechnology is unnecessary and that laws already on the books are adequate. They note, f~r example, that the FDA already regufa+~s new drugs, Agriculture oversees pesti cides, and the Toxic Substances Control Act, administered by. the EPA, is sufficient t.o assure-the safety of new.chemi cals. The industry claims the small companies that are the leading innovators in biotechnology could be slowed down by cumbersome and costly regulation. The potential for conflict between industry and government is plain, and the prospect for consensus from 14 disparate agencies is doubtful. Nonetheless both industry and Administration offi cials hope to reconcile regulation wit! the preservation of technological innova tion. Says Will D. Carpenter, genera manager for technology at Monsant<: Agricultural Products Co.: "We have ar early start, and we have an opportunit) t.o do it right this time." Ii
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1:.~~E E R.,~ ~~t<.e.ss A~~\ The European countries are .ot commercializing biotechnology as rapidly as either "the>l:lS. or Japan. However, several large pharmaceutical companies will be competitors >;f?~rfnt~,lected product areas. ,,,,, .. !J'his.t'NJt'erial was prepared by AIChE's Washington Representative, Siegel Houston & Associates, lnc. }AJ'J:/, ~uite80-#,1901 L Street, N. W., Washington, D.C. 20036. Tel. (202) 223-0650 ':::':t;' ... ,:.,--+:r l
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232 TECHNOLOGY REPORTS/ U.s.GOVERNMENI' ANALYSIS INTERNATIONAL COMPRITION SPURS COMMERCIAL ~=NG ."I The 1984 Office of Technol ogy Assessment (OT A) re port, Commercial Bioteclmol ogy: An International Analysis, is likely to be turned to eagerly as a source of information by many peo ple with diverse interests in biotechnology. Legislators, policy-makers, scientists, corporate officials, educa tors, state government officials, entre peneurs, and others all hope to tind msights in the report that will prove useful for their own endeavors. Meet ing such diverse needs constitutes a significant challenge for one docu ment. Not only must the report be accurate-it is likelv to be cited widely-and both comp'rehensible and accessible-it is likely to be used in the ----------_::liO/llCi,r\()tOCY MAf,CH 1984 -,. self-education of many individuals with different backgrounds-it must also convey the complexities of the universe bounded by the term bio technology in a sensitive yet unbiased fashion. Its primary function is, after all, to guide the U.S. Congress in policy-setting. This is a tall order, but one which the OT A report tills rather well if necessary limitations are recog nized bv its readers. From an international point of view, this report is extremely impor tant and unic1ue. It is the first totally international analysis of current and future developments in the commer cialization of biotechnology. The study concentrates on the potential of the technology rmher than actual products and prc~jections; this perspective is critical and gives the report its long term relevance. It is the natural se quel to an earlier study, Impacts of Applied Genetics, produced by the OTA in 1981. Accuracy A high standard of accuracy in technical detail was sought through out the two-year preparation of the report. The OT A extensively used contractors and contacts in a variety of sectors, and the staff, Advisory Panel members, liason "ex officio" members, and experts in pertinent fields cross-checked all information. By and large, the report should ap proach the limit of accuracy achieve able in a document of this magnitude; errors remaining after this iterative reviewing process, although they doubtless exist, should be relatively minor. An even more important dimen sion of accuracy, however, has to do with the nature of biotechnology it self. Biotechnology is evolving: it is changing rapidly, and potential, rather than actual, applications must of ten form the core of even rigorous discussion. Biotechnology is broad in scope: it consists of different constituent parts, such asacademic fields or commercial industries, that may be at different stages in development at any one time. Defining biotechnology is a difficult job at best, and data obtainable on one facet, such as spe cialty chemical product marketing, often is not comparable to available data on, for example, personnel training, without appropriate qualifi cations. The report makes an honest effort to be explicit concerning these and other limitations to the data, whether in figure captions or in ge stalt-setting chapter introductions. If accurate communication is to occur, it is incumbent upon the reader to re spond sensitively to the qualifications and reservations cleliberatelv inserted into the text of the report. Forexam ple, the report uses integration of biotechnology into the pharmaceuti cal inclusu, as a model for the com mercialization of biotechnology. Yet it would be wrong to assume that commercialization will follow the
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234 same pattern in all industries. In this and numen1us other cases, the report demands responsihilitv from its read ers. In a 1en real sense, the acniracv of the report depends 011 the reade1:. Comprehensiveness and Accessibility The scope of the report is ambi tious: wpic sections, which are divided into chapters, include (I) the new technologies employed, (2) U.S. and foreign firms commercializing bio technology. (3) application of biotech nology in various industrial sectors, and (4) factors pertinent to analysis of U.S. competitiveness in biotechnolo gy. The text of the report concen trates on the U.S. competitive posi tion vis-a-vis five other nations: Japan, Federal Republic of Germany (F.R.G.), U.K., France, and Switzer land. These countries were chosen on the basis of their advantages in R&D capability,existing commercialization of traditional biotechnology, and hav ing companies that are likely to achieve early success in world mar kets. Other countries with significant biotechnological capacity are covered in the comprehensive appendices. These include Sweden, Israel, Cana da, U.S.S.R., Brazil, Netherlands, and Australia. Each reader's "shopping list" for topics to be covered will be slightly different and, in theory, the report could have been even longer. As it is, most readers will probably be sated by its 612 pages (the Summary provides a succinct review of the report). Un like its predecessor, this report does not emphasize technical knowledge: only one chapter is devoted to biolog ical and bioprocessing technologies. Furthermore, specialists in any one facet of biotechnology are not likely to find a high level of sophistication in their particular areas. Instead, the report attempts to provide a reason able, intelligent introduction to the whole of the biotechnology enterprise in the U.S. and the world. Seemingly disparate elements-tax laws, graduate education funding patterns, petroleum supply, and cultural tradi tions, to name but a few-are not isolated phenomena, and the report attempts to integrate such elements in the text as thev are interwoven in fact. Because of this integrative approach, the report may be the single comprehensive document that can readilv provide el'en a specialist with a broacl but solid 1iew of biotechnologv. Structure and General Summary The structural framework of the report itself. while a bit unwieldv, should be mentioned because it helps orient the reader. Following the Sum mar\', Introduction, and a chapter intr11ducing the technologies, a substantive chapter surl'e\'s the current situation among firms using biotech nology. The next section incbdes chapters covering six hroadlv defined indust ries-1>harmaceuticals, agricul ture. specialtv chemicals and food ad ditives, environmental applications. commoditv chemicals and energv production, and hioelectronics-dis cussing current and potential im:or poration of biotechnology into these sectors. Once these descriptive chapters have set the scene, Part IV tackles the most elusive component of the report, identifying what constitutes competitiveness in biotechnology. Traditional analysis of market com petitiveness cannot yet be applied to the nascent commercialization of bio technology, so the report identifies an array of factors that could play some role in overall success. These factors are discussed individually and as sessed for their relative importance. The three most important factors that will determine international competitive positions in commercial izins biotechnology are tinancing and tax mcentives for firms, government funding of basic and applied re search, and the availability of trained personnel. The report's analysis shows that the U.S. has the most significant amount of financing and tax incentives, resulting in $1 billion of private sector funding of biotech nology in 1983; R&D limited patnerships raised $500 million in .1983, and are ex peeled to exceed S 1.5 billion by the end of 1984. The Japanese gov ernment offers the most money in direct tinancing for comparries using biotechnology, although the report notes that the amount i~ difficult to quantify. The governments. of the U.K., F.R.G., and France also offer significant public funding. In the area of government funding of basic and applied research, the U.S. is lagging in bioprocess engineering and applied microbiology. Both the U.K. and F.R.G. have excel lent basic research programs and are particularly strong in applied and bioprocess engineering research; Japan also has considerable strength in these latter disciplines. Turning to the availability of trained personnel, the report points out that despite an adequate supplv of basic researchers in the L' .S., there is an inadequate supply of applied microbiologists and bioprocess engineers. Again Japan is the leader in these fields. F1ance is behind in all areas of personnel, and the report notes that manv countries are looking to personnel trained abroad to lill thei1 personnel needs. The report concludes that although the U.S. is currently the world leader in both basic science and com mercial de\elopment of new biotech nologies, its pre-eminence in commercialization is 1101 comple1elv as sured. Quoting from the repon, "t\ well-developed life science base, the availahilit\ of fi11a111:ing for high-risk ventures, and an entrepreneurial spirit have led the L"nited States to the forefront in the commercializa tion of biotechnology ... Howe1e1-, the report also notes that the pace of change has been more rapid than was seen in earlier forecasts, and should be expected to accelerate beyond current expectations. This may shift the balance of competitive advantage and eventually underline and emphasize the differences in advantages among nations. Again quoting from the re port, "The commercial success of spe cific industrial applications of rDNA and cell fusion techniques can aid in the design of more efficient bioreac tors, sensors, and recovery systems. In the next decade, competitive ad vantage in areas related to biotech nology may depend as much on de velopments in IJioprocess engineering as on innovations in genetics, immunology, and other areas of basic sci ence." The report identifies health, safety, and environmental regulation; intel lectual property law; and university industry relationships as factors of moderate importance in commercial ization of biotechnology. The factors deemed least important are antitrust law: international technology trans fer, investment, and trade; govern ment targeting policies in biotechnol ogy; and public perception. These evaluations are based on the current international situation-fluctuation in the relative importance of factors may occur as commercialization pro ceeds. International Attitudes Toward Commercialization The patterns for commercial development of biotechnology will be dif ferent in different countries. In addi tion to its analvsis of the the factors noted above, the report examines na tional attitudes toward risk-taking and commercialization of new tech nologies. The report concludes the U.S. leads the world in its entrepreneurial and commercial pursuit of biotechnology. especially with its many small biotechnology firms. However, Japan is a significant competitor-its biotechnologv tirms have expertise in traditional process tech nology and possess the dynamism co compete with both the new and estab lished firms in the U.S. Funhermore. the Japanese government has identi fied commercialization of biotechnol ogv as the last great industrial breakthrough of the 20th centurv, and sucha declared national poli<.:Y should in 110 wa\' he underestimated. Established companies dominate
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236 comme1Tialization of hiotedmology in Europe. and the report notes that this ma, \mt some European coun tries at a < isad\'antage initial!\'. l-lowe\'el", it also concludes that these coumries are all considered to he competiti\'e in hiotechnology in dil~ ferent ways. For example. the C.K.'s pharmaceutical companies are lead111g manufacturers of biologically produced products, and their exper tise in hioprocessing should not be overlooked. The U.K. also possesses some of the strongest hasic research in interdisdplinary plant sciences, although sU<:cessful commercialization of this research is dilticult to predict. One major conclusion of the report is that while the C.S. position in basic research mav he the strongest, the kev lO commercialization of new bio technologies may well center on ap plied research, its link with bioprocess engineering development for scale up to commerdal produt:tion, and the a\'ailability of trained personnel in these areas. The U.S. is aware that as major corporations and governments abroad recognize the importance of commercial biotechnology, interna tional competitiveness will increase. The level of awareness demonstrated in the preparation of this report may encourage development of a national policy that will allow the U.S. to main tain and develop its leading position in this emerging technology. Complexities If the report is to effectively meet its goals of heing comprehensi\'e, educa1io11al, and analvtirnllv mean ingful, it must comev'w'the reader an appreciation of the complexities inherent in biotechnology. Biotech nology is changing rapidly-it is not a static, readily predictable component of industr\'. Thus the report must cautioush tread the line line between inappro1>riate speculation and realis tic apprnisal of "potential," whether in the form of future product mar kets or relative importance of factors in competiti\'eness. Another inescap able complexitv is the breadth of the impact ofhiotechnology: different in dustries will he affected in different ways, to dillerent degrees, and at diflerem times. Finally. the entirety of bimechnology cannot be distilled into concrete, individual components. Intangible factors such as "entrepreneurial spirit" enter in, and the inter wovenness of components assumes an importance of its own. Usefulness If readers do not ask the report to be something other than what 11 is-it is not a market survey; it is not an up to-the-minute news bulletin; it is not a scientific text-the report should prove to be a useful document. The keynotes of the study are it comprehensively surveys novel biotechnology in comparative world wide terms, concentrating on the fac tors that affect future development rather than describing the present state of the art; it highlights biotechnology's sta tus as a t1rl11111lo,1.,'! with multiple applications that will affet'l manv mdustrial sectors; and it analyles the m~jor art:as of re search and endea\'or, as well as the national policies, oft he countries with the greatest l'urrent and potential strength in commercialiling biotech nology. The report also achieves several specific o~jectives. It provides a base line of informa tion, serving as an t'ducational intro dm:tion to hiotedmology. It is a source of documentable figures, many of which have not been compiled previously. At the very least, such figures con\'ey order-of magnitude relmionships at a particu lar moment in time. It promotes an understanding of the multiple facets of biotechnology and the economic context in which it is evolving. It identifies and orders factors that contribute to the perceived posi tion of strength e~joyed by the U.S. in biotechnology today. Complemen tarities between established and new firms, a well-developed science base, availabilitv of finances. and an entrepreneurial spirit are emphasized as U.S. advantages. It warns against complacency re garding the current leadership posi tion of the C .S. It identifies serious present or potential gaps and prob lems, such as funding needs for re search and training in basic and ap-CONGRESSIONAL ISSUES AND OPTIONS TO IMPROVE THE U.S. COMPETITIVE POSITION IN CO-ERCIAL BIOTECHNOLOGY Due to its bipartisan nature, OT A does not make recommenda tions, but instead provides Congress with a series of legislative policy options. The OT A report on commer cial biotechnology finds that U.S. funding in the areas of bioprocessing engineering and applied microbiology may be insufficient to support rap id commercialization and enumerates options for improving this position. They include funding biotechnology institutes or university/industry coop erative programs and increasmg the capabilities of the National Labora tories. Other options focus on per sonnel training in these fields: in creased funding for graduate train ing grants and incentive programs that encourage engineers to remain in academia. In the area of financing and tax incenti\'es, the options in clude developing limmcing provisions for production scale-up and en couraging continued use of R&D lim ited partnerships. Clarification and modification of certain aspects of health, safety, and environmental regulation and intel lectual property law may be necessary for the U.S. to maintain a strong competitive position in biotechnolo gy. Some Congressional options pro posed in the report: amend the Fed eral Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act to permit export of unapproved drugs and biologics and address the uncer tainties and concerns about the deliberate release of genetically manipu lated organisms into the environ ment. Options for clarification of intellectual property law include passing-a statute spel;fically covering living organisms and related biological inventions and allowing patent own ers to place restrictions on microorganism cultures supplied to third par ties. The policy options in this report are directed specifically at biotechnol ogy, although the report notes there are several general issues that, if ad dressed by the Congress, could have an impact on biotechnology develop ment. These issues include improving science and engineering education, easing antitrust laws to promote re search collaboration among domestic firms, regulating imports to protect domestic industries, regulating the international transfer ot technology, and targeting specific industries or technologies for federal assistance. Nanette Newell was project director for the OT A report on commercial biotechnology; her address is Office of Technology Assessment, U.S. Congress, Washington, D.C. 20510.
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plied scie1Kes (especiallv bioprrn.:ess engineering and industrial microbiol ogv) and sustained availahilitv of fi. nances for new hiolechnologv firms thrnughmll their earlv stages. It iclen1ihes and proposes options for policv issues that have arisen or ma\' arise in connection with the com mercialization of biotechnology. Some issues, such as the economic healthi ness of the plurality and flexibility of firms commercializing biotechnology, are especiallv provocative in that they relate to high technology more generally. It emphasizes, sometimes through its very limitations, the pace and variability of the evolutionary changes through which biotechnology is passing. It also cautions the RISWlCH PAPEI ANAI.YSIS reader !11.11 anv ,,tlid consideration of that elusive ariimal. "competitiveness in hiotechnologv," requires an appre ciation ol' the wav in which diverse elements are inextricahlv interwoven. The OTA repon, c,;1111111nial Bioterh1111lo,1.,ri. 1\11 lnin11alio11al A11ay/.1i.1, is an important and comprehensive document that will he used bv the U.S. Congress to evaluate policy op tions and legislative choices over the next few years. However, its effect and stature may be as great interna tionally as domestically, thanks to its excellent, comprehensive review of each of the major nation's positions and potential for development. The report will become a standard reference work and may prove to be the basis for much decision-making for gm-er11111emal organizations. large commercial groups. and new biotech nologv firms. Laura R, Meagher is with the North Carolina Biotechnology Center, P,O. Box 12235, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, She was on the Commer cial Biotechnology Advisory Panel of the OTA. Wensley Haydon-Baillie is chairman of Porton/LH Inter national, 29 Chesham Place, Lon don, U.K.; he was a contributor to the OT A report, The complete OT A report can be purchased from the Superintendant of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Wash ington, D.C. 20402. The price is $20; the GPO stock number is 052-003-00939-l. BAOERIAL FITNESS AND GENErlC ENGINEERING Ge~etic enginee1:ing. compames may soon hnd It neces sary to hire molecular ge neticists with expertise in the area of microbial evolution. The reason for this lies in the growing interest in the fitness and adaptation of genetically engineered microor ganisms, both in the laboratorv and following release into the en~iron ment. The reproductive fitness of plasmid-carrying bacteria depends on the stability and partitioning of plas mids into daughter cells as well as the "metabolic load" of the plasmids on cellular growth. The stability of sever al cloning vectors has been shown to be due to a partition locus (par) that acts to ensure uniform distribution of plasmids into daughter cells'-3 Recently, the par locus in plasmid pSC IO I has been isolated and shown to consist of a 395 base pair DNA fragment that, although it encodes no proteins, controls the partitioning of plasmids from one cell generation to the next4 The usefulness of cells carrying plasmids containing foreign DNA depends not only on their stable trans misssion during growth, but also on the fitness of the plasmid-carrying cells relative to plasmid-free cells that might arise. If plasmid-free cells are more fit under a given set of growth conditions, the plasmid-carrying cells will be displaced from the population rapidlv. Indeed, this is what one gen erallv finds when plasmid-carrving and plasmid-free s1rains are grown toge1her in chemostals under a \'arietv of limiting conditions. Howe\'er, some reported results raise questions as to the generali1, of this rule. Se,eral groups have demonstrated 1hat /1. lvsogens of Esd1nid1ia m/i reproduce more rapidlv than non-lysogens when strains are grown together in glucose-limited chemostats.i". Recently, Hartl and coworkers have shown that a small accessory DNA element, IS50R, markedly in creases the growth rate of coli in glucose-limited chemostats7 This finding raises the intriguing possibili ty that insertion sequences (IS), which are ubiquitous in the genomes of microorganisms, may, under certain environmental conditions, confer a selective growth advantage that more than compensates for their metabolic burden. In the parlance of evolution ists, accessory genetic elements such as the par locus and insertion sequences may enhance bacterial fit ness, and this may be an important force in the selection of these ele' ments during 1he course of evolution. In this issue of BIO([ECHNOLO GY Edlin and co-workers provide additional evidence for this view. Thev have shown that in glucose,limited chemostats the presence of a 1.8 kb /1. cos DNA fragment in a plasmid in creases the fitness of bacteria harboring such a plasmid to the level of their plasmid-free counterparts. The growth rate of bacteria carrying the cos fragment on a plasmid is 20% higher than the growth rate of bacteria lacking this fragment. It remains to be shown whether the 1.8 kb fragment contains an expressed protein (which seems to be the case for IS50) or whether some non-expressed sequence (the cos re gion itself is 1he most likelv candidate) is responsible for this increased fil. ness. In a practical vein, 1he fitness of geneticallv engineered bacteria may ultima1elv detennine their rnlue as hiotech1111logical tools. A topical case in-point are the "ice-minus" hacteria8 whose usefulness depends on their reproductive fitness vis-a-vis wild type bacteria after being released into the environment. With a number of laboratories now pursuing questions of bacterial fitness, some of the mo lecular mechanisms bv which accesso ry genetic elements 'affect bacterial growth, survival, and reproduction should soon be known. Harvey Bialy, Ph.D., is research edi tor of BIO/TECHNOLOGY. References I. Meacock, P.A. and Cohen, S. ;,.;, 1980. Partitioning of bacterial plasmids during cell division: a cis-acting locus that accomplishes stable plasmid inheritance. Cell 20:529-542. 2. Skogman, (;., ;,.;i(sson, J., and Gustafs son, P. 198:t The use of a partition locus to increase stabilitv of tryptophan operon-bearing plasmids in coli. (;ene 23: I 05-115. 3. Nordstrom. K.. '.violin, S .. and Aa gaanl-Hansen. H. 1980. Partitioning of plasmid RI in r1J/i. Plasmid 4:21 :,227. 4. Miller, C. A .. Tucker, v\'. T. \leacock. P.A .. c;ustafsson. P .. and Cohen. S. :'I/. 198:1. Nucleotide sequence of the parti tion locus of m/i plasmid pSC IO I. Gene 24:309-,11 :j_ 5. Edlin. (;., Lin. L. and Kudrna. R. 1975. ,\-lvsogens of r1Jli reproduce more ra1Jidlv than non-lvsogens. :'\a ture 225:735-7:17. 6. Dvkhuizen. D .. Campbell, J. H .. and Rolfe. B. ( ;_ I !178. The intluence of /..pro phage on the growth rate of. mli. \licrobios 23:!1!1-I I :l. i. Hartl. ll. L. D,khuizen. D .. \tiller. R. D .. (;reen. L. and de Framond. J I 98:1. Transposable element IS:,O im proves growth rate of/:. rn/1 cells wuh oul lransposition. (:ell 35:;iO:l-510. 8. Powledge. T.\I. 198-1. Public education urged to coutller hiote<: nitics. BIO/ TECH'.'\OLrn;Y 2:10-12. ~ll .l 239
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~m~-----------EMPLQYMENT------~--~_An~JRf_j~iL_.~*~K-~=R;~l.~~' An international bio-labour market Richard Pearson* The rapid development of biotechnology is creating a demand for new skills. But the industry matures the emphasis will move towards more traditional skills in bioprocess enginering. SCIENCE has always been an international activity, with a regular interchange of staff and ideas between countries. In most sub jects, however, such job mobility is restric ted to a limited number of senior acade mics, together with a larger flow of post docs seeking training places, chiefly in the United States. By 198.1, more than half the doctorates awarded in engineering in the United States went to foreigners and almost 60 per cent of the postdoctoral students were from overseas. Indeed, it has been estimated that more US Government grants are given to foreign students to study in the United States than to Americans to study overseas. On a smaller scale, the United Kingdom has, for many years, acted as a centre for postgraduate and postdoctoral training, especially for students from the Commonwealth. This interchange of staff is seen to be beneficial to all concerned, providing both training and research assistance, and a cross fertilization of ideas and experience between countries. Occasionally, however, a sudden surge in the commercialization of a particular area of science, or increased allocation of funds in one country, has caused imbal ances in the supply and demand for key skills. As a result, countries with a com petitive advantage in the labour market, most notably in North America, can trigger off a "brain drain" from less advantaged labour markets. Thus, in the past thirty years, the United Kingdom has seen the alarm bells ringing over the brain drain of its doctors, nuclear scientists, electronics specialists and, most recently, biotechnolo gists. West Germany has joined Britain in expressing concern, while France, with a much smaller pool of indigenous skills, is actively encouraging its own nationals working overseas with biotechnology skills to return home. The latest report from the US Office of Technology Assessment (OT A), Commercial Biotechnology (see Naiure 2 February, p.399), provides a valuable international perspective on the rapidly developing world labour market for biotechnology skills. Biotechnology is of course an inter disciplinary activity, embracing diverse skills in biochemistry, biology, microbiology, genetics, medical and veterinary sciences and bioprocess engineering. The scientific side, in lns1itu1e of Manpower S1-udiei. Man,eU Building. Untvenity ofSusse!lli. Hrighton HNI 'IIRl-. l.:t,;._ particular, requires high qualifications; it is unlikely that anybody without at least three years postdoctoral experience would be considered as a specialist in biotechnology. Despite its "newness" and classification problems, some estimates are beginning to emerge of the numbers involved at a professional level. The OT A study estimates that there are about 5,000 people employed by companies in the United States in biotechnology research and development. There are no estimates, however, for the academic world nor the public laboratories. OT A was unable to find any estimates for France, Germany, Switzerland, Japan or the United Kingdom, the main countries with a signifi cant involvement in biotechnology. A report soon to be published by the UK Science and Engineering Research Council puts the total number of professionals in all sectors at just under 2,000, with nearly half in commercial companies. A crude esti mate therefore suggests that the total num ber worldwide may be under 30,000, a smaller figure than for those working in semiconductors, perhaps the most closely analogous sector. The OT A report provides a useful profile of the skills of the 5,000 people in commercial research and development. It shows just over a third with skills in genetic manipulation, and a third related to processing activities. Much of the research and public attention so far has been focused on the advances in genetic manipulation, and the new venture "glamour" companies such as Biogen, Celltech and Cetus have been able to offer highly attractive and well publicized terms of employment, often including equity shares, to attract the best genetics special ists from all corners of the world. Salary levels of up to $100,000 a year have been quoted. At the same time, many of the established industrial companies, notably those in pharmaceuticals, have also been investing and recruiting heavily in this area, both nationally and internationally. Such international mobility, particularly where the flow is not reciprocated, will only be sustained as long as there is a clear im balance in the skills available, allied with differential reward structures between the countries. These rewards of course need not be just monetary; they also include quality of life and environment, research facilities and the freedom to develop new ideas and take risks. Looking internationally, the OT A report says that the United States has the largest number of genetics specialists, and after a period of shortages few companies are now reporting shortages of staff with the basic skills. Similarly, the United King dom and West Germany also seem to have an adequate pool of such skills. The one major exception is said to be Japan, where an earlier lack of investment in basic science did not allow a basic pool of skills to develop. To remedy the situation, the Japanese have started in-house training, sending people abroad to be trained, in cluding five corporate researchers sent to Genex for a three-month course at a cost of $120,000 each. Mobility between companies is also being encouraged, a rare phenomenon in Japan. No attempt has so far been made to attract foreign nationals, although individual foreign consultants, working in their home countries, are being engaged. It is in the bioprocess engineering area, the application of biotechnology, that future international shortages seem most likely to occur. In the United States, it is thought that shortages of these skills may cause a bottleneck to the rapid commercial ization of biotechnology and several US companies are actively recruiting in Europe to overcome such shortfalls. The United Kingdom seems also to have a potential shortage of such skills, as does France, which has an all-round skill shortage, but West Germany has a more adequate supply. Ironically Japan, which lacks the basic skills, is, as in other technologies, well supplied with the applied staff, in this case bioprocess engineers, many of whom have a background in microbial physiology, an area of potential skill shortage in most Western countries. As bioprocess engin eering is still in its infancy, and seems to require more practical experience than the more "academic" genetic manipulation areas, it seems that there will be a premium on anyone with such skills in the future and international mobility could well increase. In its short history, biotechnology has seen one international migration prompted by the rush of investment in genetic mani pulation. As the supply of people with these skills has increased to near-sufficiency in many countries, the flow has abated. The market may have gone quiet for now, but as biotechnology matures; a second international migration could take place as the leading companies seek to recruit in the limited world pool of experienced bio process engineers. D
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TV CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD I LIVINGSTON NEW JERSEY 07039 (201/ 992-6600 I (800/ 631-1160 May 8, 1984 6:00-7:00 AM ACCOUNT NUMBER Entertainment and Sports Programming Network Business Times William Hartley, co-anchor: 6297 Y In our Technology section this morning, Sharon McAuliffe has ferreted out some trends in very different fields that are worth keeping a watch on. Sharon. Sharon _McAuliffe reporting: First, some good news from the Congressional Office of Te_c__hnology Assessment. The U.S. is still the clear leader in biotechnology with the largest, most sophisticated research effort in the world. Last year alone, one billion dollars was pumped into the industry, bankrolling more than two hundred American companies. But watch out, says the report, the U.S. biotech market could just end up going the way of color televisions and semiconductors. Once again, Japan Inc. is moving in fast. As it's done before, the Japanese government has targeted development in this high-tech area as a national priority, putting seventy-four million dollars into basic research in '84--up twenty percent from last year. The real threat, however, comes from the country's dozen or so big food companies. They've been using large-scale fermentation technology to make traditional Japanese products for years--everything from sake to soy sauce. The same basic microbiological techniques go into raising genetically engineered bacteria. Ajinomoto, for example, the big seasoning manufacturer, is using its fermentation know-how to turn out new anti-cancer drugs. And Kikkornan, the soy sauce producer, is branching out into new gene-splice diagnostics and heart disease medicines. Interestingly enough, one thing spurring these companies on is the rapid westernization af the Japanese diet. The demand for traditional foods is way down, and to survive, they're all looking for ways to apply their fermentation skills in new markets. (McAuliffe goes on to report on other new trends in technology") Video~ are availa~ in Ill' format from ou, affiliate VIDEO MONITORING SERVICES OF AMERICA, INC., to, ii period Qf fou, wedls from air date. eau 21v-1JHu10
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Polygraph Testing
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4 ,/ READER'~ Information-the really super se crets-could be required to take polygraph tests on a random basis; i.e., not just when leaks are suspect ed, but any time at all. If an employee refused to take a lie-detector test, he or she could be disciplined or even fired. Yet Congress's Office of Tech nolo Assessment has reported t at there is iioscientific evidence to support the use of lie detectors for screening large numbers of peo ple, as in an investigation for leaks, and that such use carries a high risk of misidentifying many innocent people as liars. Lifetime Vow. But of all the steps taken by the Reagan White House to block the flow of infor mation, the most alarming and out rageous has been its attempt to extend throughout theExecutive branch the lifetime censorship now imposed only on CIA and National Security Agency employees. Direc tive 84 would require that any em ployee with access to Sensitive Compartmented Information must sign a contract pledging to submit for review by a government censor all writings on foreign policy and defense, or anything that might allude to "intelligence activities, _sources or methods," even if the material is not classified. The con tract covers books, novels, maga zine articles, speeches-virtually everything. And it is in force not only while the person is working for the government but also after he or she leaves. It is a lifetime vow. 68
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PARADE'S SPECIAL .... Intelligence Report ~ By Lloyd Shearerc 1984 ~I Can You Beat the Lie Detector? .. <>oeee; .... oeee Ever wonder how easy or he and his staff-after immersing difficult it is to fool a liethemselves for a year in the research detection machine? A review and evaluation of the subject CongreS&ional study titled -concluded that .. there is at present "Scientific Validity of only limited scientific evidence Polygraph Testing" reveals that for establishing the validity of deceptive people who want to. polygraph testing" as a tool in avoid detection can choose from a employment screenings. Wood adds, wide range of countenneasures to however, "There is more validity invalidate or make inconclusive the for the use of polygraph testing in results of a lieQdetector test. criminal investigations.,. For example, tensing one's Even so, polygraphs are widely muscles, biting one's tongue, used by CQtpOrations (mostly banks squeezing one's toes or shifting and~iloudets)forpre-employment position_ will affect the physiological screenings and bY. such federal response. So, too, will tranquilizers agencies as the CIA, the FBI, the or beta-blocking drugs, and National Security Agency and the practicing thought-control or Departments of Justice, Defense and biofeedback also may affect the Treasury. polygraph readings. At this writing. it is against the Fred Wood, the project director law in 19 states and the District of for the nonpartisan Office of Columbia to ask employees to take Technology Assessment, says that a polygraph test. PAGE 14 APRIL 29, 1984 PARADE MAGAZINE
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Miscellaneous-Completed Assessments (and on OTA)
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ENERGY USER NEWS NEW YORK, N.Y. WHKL Y 12.600 1.JUN 4 ll 98'4 !l.!!!!/fE..t.FS .::; :.~t, ..... i;. i .. ~. .. ~GOVERNM'EN,ll.NSIQijlS' .Cr.eant'\of :th.e :_Crop-_),~ ........ ::. ':"\~--~... :,-;)~i~.; j:~ ... ;::. ~. : __ : .. .,. -~_.:: .... : By MITCH. BETl'S '.,;. '. .sectors: paper, .. oil-refming, chemicals, and steel -.. ,:.. .. ...._ ~. -.. It, too, -i~ipublisbed. by Cor,gress' _,()ffi&. oj YIASs1;G~;Ha~ c,{a cieaf-tor you! ~te!t"'f~~]e~~:nc1:ft'!t~-nine top.notchgovemment reports on conserva-. ments, u.s~-Government Printing Office, Wash. tion,. nuclear, natural 'gas and cogeneration .. ~gton. o:c. _20(02.. for '6, as stock number. issues, all for a grand total .. of $55;50. These are ~-003-00915-3. > publications I've collected and judged to be the NATURAL GAS best government energy reports published in the past two years. They are useful, comprehensive, If you're trying to follow and understand this. readable and objective. complex natural gas market, but can't find It is my strongest hope that this concise objective analysis, try these reports from the listing will help you to fill your bookshelf with U.S. Energy Information Administration: the best of the govemmmt reports at a modest Natural Gas: Use and Expenditures. Read cost, and att;me same time help you to battle this report first for a basic understanding of the that affiict~n commonly called "information natural gas market, including commercial and overload." industrial consumption patterns. (This is I maintain that the information in these EIA--0382, which costs $5.50.) reports will helpyou not onlr in a general, straeitm! and Treads fa Natural Gas -weueducational sense, but also-in your day-to-day bead Contracti.:-Take-or-pay contracts, price operations. For exa~le, the ."Energy Efficienescalatorclauses~ market-out clauses and the ex of lluildings in Cities" reJibt(.coritims pageS.'. like_ are all explainect-in,this volume. (This is of conservation ideas arid financing strategies. EIA--0419~-whicbcosts $5;) 4ii In any case, this information belongs in your ~t MarketAdtvfties !)f Ma,or laterscate~. hands. as a. U.S. citizen, not in some dusty Pipeline Compaaies. As the tiUe says, the report.;.,._ warehouse. The researc_h and publism._ng costs ... describes pipeline -actions that attempt to deal", were financed by your tax dollars. with the present,gas -''surplus" and marketing -GENERAL difficulties, incll!(iing-industrial discounts. (Thi_s. ...__.,_ (-6orma,..oa .Dl.;__-ry, This s a. is EIA-G440, which costs $6.) _,; .., IU' ~ (These reports -can be obtained from the-_., valuable telephone directory of st:ite and federal National Energy Informatin Center, EI-20, For" energy experts, fullylndexed, in a slim, 68-page _.. restal Building, Room-lF.(148, Washington D.C. report. You can locate Energy Department 20585. Make checks payable to Superintendent personnel as well as state energy officiats--;.; of Documents.) including the .very helpful state Energy Ex~ cooENERA. TION tension_ Service agents. It's free from the Energy Information Administration. (Published Industrial and Commercial Cogeneratloa. semi-annually as EIA--0205. Telephone the NaThis is a comprehensive and objective look at tional Energy Information Center, 202-252-8800.) the. technical, financial and-political issues .. Co V TION surrounding cogeneration, published by CooNSER A gress' J)fflc!._9.f _t_~glogy..Assessmen.t. (This Energy Efficiency of.Buildingsia Cities. This report canoe ootained from the Superintendent is an excellent primer on building energy conof Documents, U.S. Government Printing Of, servation-the cost-effective technologies and fice, for $8.50, as. stock number 052.(J(l3-00899-8.} financing. Published by Congress' Office of Technology Assessment, it explores t:H@ Hy NUCLEAR lruffllbll hm .. agcw malaa ;Jecisions about" conNuclear Power Inan Age of Uncertainty. A: servation measures. (This report can be obtough, objective report on the present state and tained from the Superintendent of Documents, future of n.eclear power has been published by U;S. Government Printing Office, Washington,' Congress'..Qffice of TechnolO!Q'.~~ It D.C. 20402, for $9, as stock number rates utihtres, discloses their constriictaon costs 052-003-00871-8.) and charts a reasonable path for the future. Industrial Energy Use. This is a primer on
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' I, I ;> .. /Li :J1,(J'::;_ /:.,, Features and News Can Technology Save Tropical Forests? The long-term returns on hydroelectric development, such as the Volta River project in Ghana, depend on the longevity of the reservoir, which in tum depends on watershed protection afforded by tropical forests. (Photo courtesy FAQ by Peyton Johnson) Nine tropical countries will eliminate vir tually all their closed forests1 within the next 30 years. and another i3 countries will exhaust theirs within 55 years if present trends continue. warns a recent report by the congressional Office of Technology Assessment. This loss would seriously affect the people of the tropics. as well as other nations all over the world. In releasing thest.udy. Technologies to Sustain Tropical Forest Resources. US Representative Don Bonker (D-WA). chairman of the House Subcommittee on International Economic Policy and Trade, stressed that the threats posed by unchecked tropical deforestation carry ominous prospects for the future. "Tropical deforestation will be one of the most important sleeper issues of the 1980s and 1990s. Deforestation and poor global resource management are behind the headlines we see all too often on drought in Africa. floods in the Indian 350 subcontinent. or declining agricultural productivity in Central America." says Bonker. "This doesn't seem to be a crisis now but it will be in the decades to come if we don't act." Action never comes as easily as talk. In the last five years, more than 10 major reports2 have documented the damaging consequences of tropical deforestation. This wash of literature has tried to high light the importance of these forestshow tropical forests help maintain the productivity of land that cannot support sustainable agriculture: how they limit erosion. protect soil quality. and regulate water regimes; and how they provide fuel, food, fodder, medicines, building materials. and other goods for local peo ple and for export (see box, p. 352). Some of the reports have enumerated strategies to combat the current, poten tially disastrous trend. Still, significant inroads into the problems of deforesta tion and resource degradation have been slow to appear because there are tremen dous political. cultural. and economic constraints to overcome. What Can Congress Oo? OT A points out that, although many of the actions needed to halt and correct forest resource deterioration can only come from the governments and people of tropical nations. the United States can play an important role in sustaining tropical forests through its foreign assistance policies and scientific expertiso,-1JS ex pertise in research. technology develop ment. resource management. and educa tion could be especially helpful in combating deforestation. In fact, the re port outlines 22 specific options that 'Closed forests are those where trees shade so much of the ground that a continuous layer of grass cannot grow. These forests are typically found in moist areas. Open forests predominate in tropical areas where the climate is relatively dry. BioScience Vol. 34 No. 6 ;;:
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Congress could pursue to support forest conservation. congress is routinely criticized as a reactive institution. quite often justifi ahly. This report otli:rs us the chance to ensure that our government plays a lead ing role. rather than that of reacting to glllhal environmental and natural re,ource problems only alkr they have assumed crisis proportions. says Bonker. The options proposed hy OT A fall into tive areas: expanding and coordinating development assistance activities: en couraging resource development plan ning in the tropics: improving tropical forest research and development efforts: protecting biological diversity: and ex panding US expertise in tropical forest resources and making it more easily available. These options vary in scope. effective ness. and practicality. On an easy-toaccomplish seal~. OT A suggests that Congress continue to hold oversight hearings on the Agency for International Development and multinational assist ance organizations to ensure that US assist.im:e supports sustainable use of tropical forests as mandated by the For eign Assistance Act. That might mean. for instance. more careful attention to the siting of agricultural settlements or industrial development. OTA also sug gests strengthening US Forest Service programs in Hawaii and Puerto Rico to increase US expertise in tropical forestry research and set an example of v. isc forest management on those tropical for cslS actually under US cnntrol. At a hroader level. OTA points out th,1t US tropical forestry expertise is not used clli.:ctively. US experts with knowl edge and experience essential to sustain ahlc development of tropic.ii forest rc,ources are now !'ICUltered .among puhlic. private. and academic institutions. so it i, diflicult for development assistance ugcncie~. flrivute lirms. or other govcrn incnt~ tl; loca1e the experienced person nel or research they muy need. Thus. OTA suggest~ that Congress design.ate 'Thc,c ,uh.ill'' lfh.:hu.lc: lm1,rund (.'tili:a1i,,,, ,,i /,.,,,,, ,,/ 1-.,,,.\f\. :\Ill Jll7X: l'ort'HfV .\i:c tor /:t1,fo \ I',,,,,.,. \\'orh.l Hank ( l.J;7K; I:_.\ \trr11,.t\' ( .,,if,nm ,m /"1rcal Udo,t,trllion. t:S Dcrt. lI Stare.AID l47X: Worl,I Cmr.\t'THllion Su-,11-:,. l "NEP:lt '( N WWF t:NES('O+AO l'IKII: Com,nio,r of .\l,,111 /,.,,,_,n,i F,,, ...,\, NAS l'IHU: /111 Wurl,/', Troti ,1/ 1-,,,.,.\l'c .-\ /'oli, \', .\,uc,s.:L on.J /ro&:ffi/11 Ji,, th, l.'nit,,I S1111,,. t :s ln1.:rag.:n.:y Ta,k Fur.:.: l'IMO: Ht'\f'C'11"'1 />ri11riti-1, b, r,,,,,in,I lliolo1t~, N AS l"IKO~ l-"or1.,1n A, lfriti,, a111/ l1do,c.,1,11iu11 1~rohln,n ill llnd<1titi~ Com111i,,. All> l'IMO: T/w (i/0/111/ JtH/11 H,ort to tlr, /'r,,i,J,. ( 'El) l'lll: 11.'i .'itmt,r C11t1lt-r1H 1 u,r /1,olos:ind /Ji,nit_\'. All} l"KI. 1 ... 1j\0A Barely one-tenth the area of lropical forests cleared each year is reforested. These f=ucalyptus seedlings will be planted on overgrazed land in Columbia. (Photo courtesy FAO by A. lsaya) "centers of excellence "-institutions created or chosen to make tropical forest resource issues their prime concern. Such centers would help focus US expertise and provide more opportuni ties for i:elevant research. educ.it ion. and technology transfer. These centers could he organized hy gcogrnflhic region lone e.1ch for lmpieal Americu. Asia. and Africul. or they could he organized hy ccologic.11 cutegorics ( ,uch as dry open forest. moi~t closed forest. and mountain foresll. OTA also discusses ways lo en courage the private ,ec!Or to develop and implement technologies lo ,ustuin tropical foresh. Technology's Role "'In recent years. we've heard a lot of had new, ahout the tropicul forest~. They arc hcing cleared at alarming rates hy logger,. farmer, and ranchers. and people in need of fuel. And once cleared. these land, often lo,e natural pn,ductivily and l',ecome \va,lcland."' says Bruce Ro,,-Shcritr. project director of the OT.-\ ,tully. But lhcre i, go11d 11,:\\'' too. ( >TA illen1ilie, a numt,cr of existing and emo:rgini: technologie!'I that have the potential tu ,ustain lwpical forc,t pro ductivity. These include farming tech niques that comhine trees with crops or livestock 1agrofore,1ryl, genetic im provement of trees. improved charcoal pr4'duction. helter woodstoves. new apprnachcs h> park design and manage ment. ,md a variety of forest manage ment strategics. Many technologies developed in the United States can he use;:
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Soil becomes a nonrenewable resource to be mined, then abandoned. This prac tice continues because people have no alternatives. Until additional methods are developed that can provide subsis tence for local land users and sustain forests, the forests will continue to suffer. Transferring Technology Getting appropriate technologies into the hands of people who need them can be another problem. Simply having a great idea is not enough; one of the most common problems in technology transfer is that researchers and designers are not in touch with the real needs of intended users-the local people. In trying to un derstand what makes some technology transfer efforts successful, and why some fail miserably, the OT A staff iden tified a number of conditions they feel are essential to the dissemination and adoption of new technologies. These include: Technology is best transferred directly from person to person; local people who are expected to use the techniques need to learn directly from those who have experience applying them. The technology needs to be adapted at the user's end to local biological. physical, economic, as well as social conditions. The people at the source end of a technology transfer must be knowledge able and well qualified, while the people at the receiving end must be receptive to the change and capable of implementing it. Most transfers also require a "facili tator," someone who understands the technology transfer process. including the market for the technology and its products and the political, social, and economic constraints involved. Both users and transfer agents should be involved in choosing the technologies and in planning and implementing the transfer process so the technology meets the actual needs of the people. All parties involved-source. trans fer agents, facilitators, and users-must feel that they are "winners" and must, in fact, be winners if a technology transfer is to succeed. Each actor's self-interests should be identified early in the transfer so they can be addressed. Each participant must be aware of subsequent steps in the transfer process so his or her actions are appropriate to the later steps. 352 Why We Need Tropical Forests For the 2 billion people of tropical nations, forests provide fuel, food, fodder, medicines, building materials, wood for lumber and paper, and other basic needs. Forests help maintain soil quality,. limit erosion, stabilize hillsides, modulate seasonal flooding, and protect waterways and marine resources from accelerated siltation. Tropical forests can also be an important source of foreign exchange and jobs. The benefits offered by tropical forests are not limited to the tropical nations. World trade in tropical wood is significant to the economies of both the producing and consuming nations. The United States is the second largest importer of tropical wood products; from 1974 to 1978, US imports of tropical wood (logs, lumber, plywood, and veneer) averaged $430 million annually. Furthermore, US demand for tropical wood has been growing at rates well above our population and gross national product growth rates. Tropical forests also provide a broad array of nonwood products, such as oils, spices, and rattan, that are valuable for both subsistence and commerce. The annual world trade in rattan, for example, is estimated to be $1.2 billion. World trade in essential oils and spices from tropical plants (including camphor, cassia, cardamon, citronella, and cinnamon) exceeds$ I billion each year. Thus exports of industrial wood and nonwood forest products earn substantial foreign exchange for nations that trade with the United States. In addition, the highly diverse tropical forests contain plants, animals, genetic materials, and chemicals that have great potential value for medicine, agriculture, and other industries. In fact, the tropics are thought to contain two-thirds of the world's estimated 4.5 million plant and animal species, and it is likely that the tropics will provide potentially important resources for pest control, plant breeding, and genetic engineering. Tropical forests provide habitats for many of the world's migratory birds and various endangered species. About two-thirds of the birds that breed in North America migrate to Latin America or the Caribbean for the winter. Some of these birds play an important role in controlling agricultural pests in the United States. These species suffer as their tropical habitats disappear. Forests are also important to the economic viability of US investments overseas and the political stability of developing nations. For instance, US foreign assistance projects can be undercut by flooding, siltation, and other problems associated with deforestation. Moreover, food and jobs-essential for political stability-are reduced by inappropriate deforestation with serious consequences. The flow of refugees from Haiti to Florida is sometimes cited as an example of economic and social disruption caused, in part, by tropical deforestation. The environment for demonstrations of the technology should be similar to the environment that will exist for actual users. Pilot transfer projects should not be unrealistically easy. The initial commitment of resources to the process should be sufficient to carry the technology transfer until it is self-supporting. The transfer process must include ways for all participants to evaluate the process and suggest improvements. Tropical deforestation and resource degradation are certain to become increasingly serious in the future unless efforts to reverse the trend are stepped up. Now. 11.3 million hectares of the earth's remaining tropical forests--an area about the size of Pennsylvania-are cleared each year and converted to other uses. Only one-tenth that amount is re planted in trees. If population in the tropics doubles, as expected, to 4 billion people in the next 30 years. that many more people "fill be relying on signifi cantly fewer forests for the essen_ljal goods and services they supply. -Chris Elfring Copies of the OTA report are available from the Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402. Refer to GPO stock number 052-003-00943-9. $/0.00. Summaries of the report are available free from OTA, US Congress. Washing ton, DC 205/0. BioScience Vol. 34 No. 6
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s/@/s;!VevA";,J Vcvrrud. A DIGEST OF STUDIES, SURVEYS AND BOOKS Business Executive compensation ... After General Motors Corp. paid S 182 million in bonuses to its executives in early May and Ford Motor Co. paid $81 million, U.S. Trade Represen tative Bill Brock heatedly described the bonuses as "unbe lievable." Such large corporate bonuses have raised ques tions about the size and types of compensation awarded to executives. In "From Pay to Perks to Parachutes: The Trouble with Executive Compensation," Mark Green, presi dent of a New York policy institute, the Democracy Project, and Bonnie Tenneriello, a student at the Johns Hopkins University who was a research associate with the project, analyze the compensation given to America's top executives in the form of salaries, stock options, perquisites and sever ance pay. The authors note that while in 1977, only five executives earned more than SI million, by 1983 at least 38 executives exceeded that amount, with 18 topping $2 mil lion. The report suggests ways to reform the executive pay setting process. Copies are $20 from the project, 145 East 49th St Suite 9D, New York, N.Y .. 10017. Economy U.S. productivity ... The American economy is still the most productive in the world although it has experienced sagging growth in recent years, write Sar A. Levitan, an economics professor at George Washington University, and Diane Werneke, a research economist on the staff of Sen. Paul E. Tsongas, 0-Mass in Productivity: Problems, Prospects, and Policies. The United States currently produces about a third more goods per worker than Japan, they say, and at least 10 per cent more than West Germany. But sustained productiv ity g~owth is essential for our continued national prosperity, say the authors, who examine the areas that have caused that growth to lag. Levitan and Werneke also evaluate the reli ability of productivity measurements and current proposals for reviving U.S. productivity. They shy away from support ing an industrial policy as a cure for deteriorating productiv ity and recommend investing in labor and market programs. Copies are $7.95 in paper and SIS in cloth from the John Hopkins University Press. Baltimore, Md., 21218 (ISBN 08018-3038-9: 0-80 I 8-3022-2). Health Medicaid costs ... Efforts to control the rate of growth in medicaid expenditures have dominated the health policy agendas of most states during the early 1980s. Medicaid outlays for fiscal 1984 are expected to approach S38 billion, which is almost 25 times the S 1.5 billion spent during 1966, when the.program first began operating, says a report by the Intergovernmental Health Policy Project at George Wash ington University. And since 1975, with two exceptions, the average annual rate of increase in medicaid expenditures has been slightly more than I 5 per cent. The exceptions were 1982, during which payments increased by 6. 7 per cent, and 1983, when they increased by 9.9 per cent. How much of the recent slowdown in the growth of medicaid expenditures can be attributed to state initiatives as opposed to reduced federal financing? In "Recent and Proposed Changes in State Medicaid Programs, A Fifty State Survey," Richard E. Merritt, director of the health policy project, notes that state officials have singled out cost-sharing requirements as significantly contributing to their ability to constrain spend ing in their programs. The 1983 survey provides a list of costcontainment actions that have been taken by state legislative and executive officials. Copies are $9 from the project, 2100 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington, D.C., 20037. Politics Election laws ... Under federal election laws, corporations are barred from making contributions to and expenditures on behalf of candidates for federal office. They are, however, allowed to contribute to candidates through political action committees (PACs). In "The Election Law Primer For Corporations," Jan W. Baran. a partner in the Washington law firm of Baker & Hostetler, describes the laws regulating PACs and, in particular, the restrictions on contributions to them. Baran, who was executive assistant to the chairman of the Federal Election Commission from 1977-79, also dis cusses the rules governing the use of corporate facilities for political purposes. Copies are available for SJ from Prentice Hall Inc., Information Services Division, P.O. Box 5 I I. West Nyack, N.Y .. 10995. Shaping politics ... What influence do the news media have on the behavior of presidential candidates? In Media Poli tics: The News Strategies of Presidential Campaigns, F. Christopher Arterton, a political scientist at Yale University, argues that because the public receives most of its informa tion about electoral politics through the news media, cam paign coverage has become a major influence on the candi dates, affecting their strategies and campaign organizations. He discusses the ethics and biases governing the behavior of reporters and television producers and how candidates try to influence a news story. Copies are $27 from Lexington Books, D.C. Heath and Co., 125 Spring St., Lexington, Mass 02173 (ISBN 0-669-07504-3). Science Neuroscience ... According to the congressional Office of Technology Assessment, neuroscience, the study of the ner vous system. may off er ways to prevent Alzheimer's disease and other debilitating neurological disorders that afflict at least 50 million Americans. In "Impacts of Neuroscience," the OTA surveys the scientific basis of research on the nervous system, identifies several medical applications and discusses the federal role in neuroscience research. The report notes that neuroscience may also be able to offer solutions for infectious and parasitic diseases, cardiovascular disease and immunological disorders. Copies are S2.50 from the Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 20402. Taxation Current legislation ... The complex House and Senate tax bills approved in April involve more than I 00 provisions to increase taxes and federal revenues. But a few important proposals would reduce taxes. A brief summary of the major provisions of these bills is contained in "Tax Topics Advisory (Dev 84/4)," which has been released by Coopers & Lybrand, a New York-based accounting and consulting firm. It describes major changes that have been proposed in such areas as interest-free and low-interest loans, capital gains, employee compensation and benefits and tax-oriented invest ments. Copies of the summary are free from Coopers & Lybrand at 1800 M St. NW, Washington, D.C 20036. -Jennifer Belton NATIONAi IOIID1'JAI .,. .. ,o, .,._
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DEFENSE DtUL y WASHINGTON, 0.C. DAILY CIIW, N. AVAIL. APR 25 t 9g,1 .iU/{/?_E..U.FS OTA URGES STATION BE USED TO ADVANCE AUTOMATION C2 97 Y The congressional Office of Techn~!'-L~~sessment (OTA) has informed Congress that the NASA Space Station program provides "a unique opportunity" for the United States to advance its capabilities in automation, and recommended that automation opportunities on the station be selected to have clear relevance to applications on Earth. OTA's Nancy Carson Naismith reported that a recent OTA workshop on Automation and Space concluded that advanced automation could play an important role on the Space Station, but that the automation program needs "greatly increased" funding and clearly identified objectives. Machines Cannot Replace Man The workshop also concluded that the development of machine systems "incorporating perception, motor skills, and artificial intelligence comparable to those of human beings requires so many breakthroughs that one cannot rationally predict when, or if, they will be available." However, the automation experts also said that "many of the tasks envisioned for any 'space station' could be performed at lower levels of automated capabilities, especially if human beings are remotely present." The workshop concluded that there already are "real opportunities for introducing useful. automated equipment" for the Space Station and it urged that the original arthitecture of the station be such as to "not preclude the addition of automated systems as they become available," something it said was not done on the Space Shuttle program. The OTA conference also recommended that some long-term goals be selected that are "well in advance of the state-of-the-art," with progress measured with a number of frequent "real world" research and development milestones. "One possible generic goal would be the demonstration of a robotic device capable of assessing an incompletely known situation, drawing upon its own knowledge base, communicating back to a human being on Earth or at another location in space for some advice, and upon receipt of that advice, automatically implementing a complex repair or assembly task," Naismith said. She added that the workshop felt that the appropriate mix of human and automated capbilities should be determined on a case-by-case basis, with automation supporting human capabilities. "The maximum possible level of automation may not be the optimal level," she added. "Human beings have been found to be far more productive workers in space than has been generally expected." The workshop also pointed out that "international competition in automation technologies is a serious threat to U.S. commercial-industrial leadership." Since NASA is a "national resource the 'space station' program would be a good opportunity to help move our R&D efforts in automation onto a faster track," Naismith said. The station program "would provide an R&D incentive to work on research topics that are at once truly advanced and germane to the 'real world.' Possible R&D objectives could include a free flying robot operating under supervisory control to service satellites, ~ran automated system t_o undertake hazardous tasks such as handling cryogenic fuels." ------...... __
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Wlp {Jn1111i'h'lhT .ilnunml PROVIDENCE.. 11. I n. M.lJ'>:' APR l S I 9R 4-.!l!t!gJEu.rs J .. O~ter spac~,!~Jarge e~ol!gh i __ :-for U.-S.-Sov~tfl cooperat1on i r:9e,~it_:,;:o~i~-g- co~petiti-~n '. b~~--~~~-b!e more folg\TW1!ucy __ 1m-: \w-een: the Unrted States wo~kmg _gro~ps of Amencan hand, such as Russif .s program hf ,~_d _Russia~ sc1ent1sts. 4ev,toping. ground-based .. Ja-sers with,_ t: Cooperation could save taxpayers an;:anti-sat~Uite .. capability: By' coiilci-~ 40Jlars. A Soviet orbiting of Mars is dence~'. these lasers liad ,been men-~.heduled for 1986; we are resuming !foned 24 hour~ previously at'a con9ur: Martian studies in 1990. The terence in Cambridge, conducted by Soviets plan a further look at Venus, Harvard University's Russian_ Re-~s well __ as an approach to Halley's s~arch Center. ~omet. Vie: are doing little about the .. ,, .. ; .qomet, but k11ow a lot about the Micha~I Nacht, a Haryard admims:moon, Whi~. the Russians still hope -:!!'tor,;~1d o~ !he ~nns-~n-~pace ra~~\-0, explore: At the least, overlapping :fhe mtensiftca~~-?D -0!-': the u~s.~. and d_upUcation of expensiye scienti.-u~~-S._R. -~~mpet1t1on. _-_ 1s !or _real. f:i. projects might be lessened The~e.d~es_n.t seem ~o be an~ pobtic;:,1 .. ~~rough 'bilateral programs. :will, 1 ~ eit1!;r capital, to. en~ tbi~ ,, .Without compromising national se--compet1t1on; .-: ; .... . Th r d 1 unty one. whit, and without turnmg' ; :: _a_ Stl'. oesn true OU~ ;:OOJ;?~r~~-' -~-~ri~a11cooperatiOQOO and off as a t1~!1 m shared e;"periments. ~ow :~hi~ '.wat:d.:.or punishment, the best intern:nght b~ done 15 ~nder ~tudy by theestsof the United States ~an probably congressional Office of Te~hnol~gx., tl~ promoted by an open.:handed ex-Ass_essment~.Three senators tncludmg cllange of as much space information Claiborne Pell of Rhode_ Island ask~~ is we and the Russians want to for t~e OTA study. A fmal. report is share. The OTA's formal assessment dutii~ ;:s~ ~~!~pie of past ~haring, fJt;~~!f.otent~al will be awaited with / .. --
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,. ;, ,. .; _,..,,. 'c ----------------------------------------GOVERNMENT Technology Transfer Policies Are Still Lacking Washington sees outpouring of studies and hearings on innovation policy; rethinking of federal role in diffusing know-how to industry urged Ideas about the federal role in development of a national innovation policy continue to simmer like a pot of stew. In the economic policy field, there still may be some idle remnants of a "Reaganomics," but what is lacking is a "Reagatechnics" that would involve the government as a partner with industry in diffus ing important, fundamental technology throughout industry. "There is little unanimity," de clares IBM chief scientist Lewis M. Branscomb, "on the effect of current R&D policies and activities, and even less on what kinds of federal _actions will actually help. Few people in government have either the information or the management environment required to operate a pro gram of technology development for commercial use." Lately Washington has seen a fresh outpouring of studies, con ferences, and hearings on technology policy in an advanced economy and a competitive world. One of the leading generators of ideas on the subject is Congress' Office of Technology Assessment. In one of its unofficial staff memorandums just completed by senior analyst John Alic for the House Committee on Banking, Finance & Urban Af fairs, OT A has sounded a call for a rethinking of the government role in diffusing technological knowhow to business and industry. The market target would not be the consumer, for OT A agrees with Rep. uFalce led floating of bill the Reagan Administration that this is industry's role. Instead, the target would be industries themselves, through the concept known as generic technology, a term coined some years ago at the National Bu reau of Standards and urged on Congress by the Carter Administration. "Generic technology development and technology diffusion to U.S. firms are primary needs for strengthening the international position of American industry," OT A says. To begin, OT A suggests removing engineering research from the mainstream of National Science Foundation directorates to form a separate entity inside or outside the agency. As justification, it says industrial technology "has no home within the federal government," and that only 10% of NSF's budget is applied to engineering research. And that amount has only remote relevance to the development of tech nologies geared toward solving immediate problems facing industry. The U.S. Constitution has established, at least in principle, the idea of generic technologies, under the concept of "Internal Improvements." These have included public projects like roads, canals, dams, waterway navigability, and beach erosion controL Without them, the country could hardly have embarked on its preand post-Civil. War industrial revolution. More lately, Internal Im provements ca.me to include funding for sewage treatment plants, air pollution control, atomic energy, and new drug development and testing. In the new thinking, Internal Improvements would include buttressing the development of engineering principles that the totality of industry needs to regain parity with Japan's technological dynamism. On Capitol Hill a group of Congressmen led by Rep. John J. LaFake (D.-N.Y.), chairman of the House Subcommittee on Economic Stabilization, have floated a bill, H.R. 4361, the Advanced Technology Foundation Act. The bill, opposed by the Administration, was just sent to the House Committee on Banking, Finance & Urban Affairs after hearings held last month. Under this proposed legislation, A TF would be an independent agency like NSF and would establish, through loans and grants, centers for the development of these "generic technologies." The bill doesn't specify what these technologies would be, but examples, according to OT A, would include digital systems design, applied research on microelectronic devices, auto engine combustion processes, automobile safety technology, control system models for robot arms, engineering design, lubrication, wear, and structural integrity. Some generic technology centers, privately supported, do already exist. April 16, 196-4 C&EN 23
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Government Semiconductor Research Corp. is one; Microelectronics & Computer Technology Corp. is another. And, of course, there is what might be called an "invisible college" of generic technologists, including engineers employed by the National Bureau of Standards, the private Ameri can National Standards Institute, academic engineering departments, and the many testing laboratories around the country. Not to be ignored is thl role of the state universities in providing, on the agricultural model, technological extension services to small and large businesses in their states. NSF, rather quietly, has established a number of cooperative research centers and small business innovation centers housed in universities. Under these programs, the agency provides modest startup funds for these centers on the condition that industry will come in and keep them going. What exists then, is a more or less unorganized smattering of technology transfer .activities around the country, all in search of a guiding principle. H.R. 4361 is an effort to establish such a principle. The bill would authorize $500 million over the first four years to fund such centers through ATF and would es tablish a Federal Industrial Extension Service that would provide grants and loans to states for tech nology transfer programs. The most obvious model for this activity would be the 125-year-old Agricul tural Extension Service and landgrant research system. What Sl'ems to be nt.t.tild, OT A indicates, is a mon cohesiVl' sense of what these centers, whoever supports tht.m, should bl doing. "Bt. cause technical know-how is l'm bodit.d in people," the OT A nwmo randum says, "a company may not even know that it is missing a pit.n of the puzzll: No l>l1l' with thl' nt.'l'tild ptrspl'ctivl' c;111 bt. found within tht. 11rg,111iz.itio11. Tlw JWl'd is glmrally to bring tlw right !-.ind of knowlldgt to a givl'll pn,bltm .. Thl import,1nt ruh uf govlrnmlnt would lw to cuurdin,ltl' .ind link the nttwork. of nntlrs ,1l nady doing this sort of thing, whilt.-providing p.1rti,1I fund in,; for tlwsl' nntlr~." \V,J f ,t" ... L, \\1.,, l,,,,,,r,,n Federal Alertnew legislation This C&EN listing highlights legislation introduced between Feb. 20 and April 5. Senate and H(mse bills are listed under subject area by bill num ber, primary sponsor, and com mittee(s) to which referred. SENATE Buslnea. s. 2447-Specter (R.-Pa.}. Limits the deductions a corporate shareholder that acquires anothef corporation can take for the dividends received from the acquired cor poration; referred to Finance. S. 2448-Specter (R.-Pa.}. Makes It oolawful for any person to make an offer for more than 20 % of an equity class of a company's stock unless the offerer is the issuer of the security or the offer is a cash offer for all of the outstanding shares of the equity class; referred to Banking, Housing & Urbe.n Af fairs. Energy. S. 2358-Proxmlre (0.-Wis.). Pro hibits U.S. Synthetic Fuels Corp. from mak Ing arr, new financial assistance awards until a comprehensive strategy document Is drawn up and approved by Congress: re ferred to Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs. EnvlronmenL S. 2407-Proxmire (0.-Wis.). Ensures that federally owned or operated hazardous waste sites comply fully with the requirements of the Superfund law; referred to Envtronment & Public Works. S. 2421_-Specter (R.-Pa.). Amends Superfund to allow cleanup of groundwater contaminated by petroleum products. regulation of underground storage tanks; referred to Environment & Public Works. Nuclear. S. 2356-Specter (R.-Pa.). Re quires that an environmental impact statement be filed and given due weight by the Department of Transportation before any truck canying high-level nuclear wastes can be routed through a standard metropolitan area: referred to Environment & Public Works. Research. S. 2525-0uayle (R.-lnd.). Clarifies the status of fundamental engi neering research within NSF. makes engi neering education an agency priority: re ferred to Labor & Human Resources. HOUSE Business. H.R. 4940-Wyden (0.-0re.). Eliminates states ability to impose a unitary tax-treating a company's worldwide income as a single unit and taking a share of the whole unit's income, rather than the income generated just within a state-on business activity that occurs outside the U.S.; referred to Judiciary, Ways & Means. Data. H.R. 5073-Boxer (0.-Calil.). Sets standards tor the government's rights to technical data produced by defense con-tractors, establishes a mechanism to safeguard contractors' rlglts to proprietary data: referred to Armed Services. Environment. H.A. 5084-Wlrth (0.-Colo.). Provides for the control of hazardous air pollutants from stationary and mobile sources; referred to Energy & Commerce. H.R. 5249-Bryant (0.-Tex.). Requires any person selllng a hazardou$ waste site to tell the pu-chaser the type and amount of waste that has been treated and disposed of on the land, the dates when these activities occurred, any closure. removal, Of' remedial action that has been taken: referred to En ergy & Commerce. H.R. 5314-Waxman (0.-Callf.). ReQulres 10 milllon ton reduction In sulfur dioxide emission In the continental U.S places a fee on generated electricity, requires expedited control of hazardous air pollutants; referred to Energy & Convnerce. H.A. 5370-Udall (0.-Artz.). Calls for re ductions of 11 mllllon tons per year In sulfl.r dioxide emission In 31 eastern states by 1996, prohibits furthel' lncrse Inso2 and NO. emissions after 1996;.referred to Energy &Commerce. Health. H.J. Res. 514-Vento (0.-Mlnit.). Expresses the sense of Congress that all workers, not Just~ In manufacturing Industries, have a fundamental "rlglt to know" when they are handling or exposed to hazardous substances; referred to Energy & Commerce. Patents. H.R. 4964-Sensenbrenner (A. Wis.). Places the title to any inventions to the contractors who conducted the federally sponsored R&O which led to 1hem, allows the government to utlllze the Invention royalty free; referred to Judiciary. H.A. 5003-Fuqua (0.-Fla.). Establishes a uniform federal system for management, protection, and utilization of the results of federally sponsored scientific and techno logical R&D; referr8" to Judiciary, Science & Technology. Pfftlcldee. H.R. 4939-Waxman (D.-Callf.). Authofizes EPA 's administrator to revoke an exemption and set a tolerance level tor any pesticide that poses an imminent hazard to public health; referred to Energy & Commerce. Research. H.R. 4501-Rodino (D.-N.J.). Codifies the application ol the rule of reason in all antitrust cases Involving joint R&O ventures, Omits the potential damage expo sure of such a Joint venture to actual dam ages ii the venture has been properly re ported to the antitrust agencies; referred to Judiciary. H.R. 5098-Torricelli (D.-N.J.). Requires the National Library of Medicine to make avail able to all medical libraries the lull text ol published research results. establishment ol a committee to conduct a lull-text literature search prior to the 11..nding of gant proposals Involving the use of live animals to prevent duplicative research; referred to Energy & Commerce.
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