9213.pdf

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Quarterly Report Off ice of Tech no logy Assessment October 1-December 31, 1984

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Office of Technology Assessment Congressional Board of the 98th Congress MORRIS K. UDALL, Arizona, Chairman TED STEVENS, Alaska, Vice Chairman Senate ORRIN G. HATCH Utah CHARLES McC. MATHIAS, JR. Maryland EDWARD M. KENNEDY Massachusetts ERNEST F. HOLLINGS South Carolina CLAIBORNE PELL Rhode Island CHARLES N. KIMBALL, Chairman Midwest Research Institute EARL BEISTLINE University of Alaska CHARLES A. BOWSHER General Accounting Office CLAIRE T. DEDRICK California Land Commission House GEORGE E. BROWN, JR. JOHN H. GIBBONS (Nonvoting) Advisory Council JAMES C. FLETCHER University of Pittsburgh California JOHN D. DINGELL Michigan LARRY WINN, JR. Kansas CLARENCE E. MILLER Ohio COOPER EVANS Iowa RACH EL McCULLOCH University of Wisconsin S. DAVID FREEMAN Tennessee Valley Authority WILLIAM J. PERRY Hambrecht & Quist GILBERT GUDE Congressional Research Service CARL N. HODGES University of Arizona Director JOHN H. GIBBONS DAVID S. POTTER Genera I Motors Corp. LEWIS THOMAS Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer C-enter

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CONTENTS I. DIRECTOR'S STATEMENT A. The Quarter in Review 1 II. COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS A. Summary of FY '84 Completions, Ongoing Work, and New Starts Through December 31, 1984 2 B. Products Delivered During the Quarter 1. Formal Assessment Reports 3 2. Other: Technical Memoranda, Background Papers, Staff Papers or Letter Memoranda, Workshop Proceedings, and Committee Prints 5 3. Testimony.............................................. 8 c. Other Communication with Congress 1. Briefings, Presentations, Workshops 9 2. Informal Discussions --Topics 10 D. Projects in Process as of 12/31/84 (including formal assessments, responses to TAB, and Committee requests) 1. Descriptions and Requester(s) 13 A. In Press as of 12/31/84 14 B. In Progress as of 12/31/84 20 E. New Assessments Approved During the Quarter 52 III. PUBLICATION BRIEFS OF FORMAL ASSESSMENTS DELIVERED IV. SELECTED NEWS CLIPS ON OTA PUBLICATIONS AND ACTIVITIES

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I I. DIRECTOR'S STATEMENT The Quarter in Review. Part of the first quarter of each fiscal year is devoted to preparation of OTA's Justification of Estimates, writing our Annual Report, and laying plans for the coming year. Common to all of these activities is OTA's annual senior management retreat for planning and evaluation. After a variety of preparatory analyses and ad-hoc task force efforts, about two dozen of OTA's key staff meet for a working retreat, beginning at Thursday dinner and ending on Saturday afternoon. At this year's meeting we concentrated on OTA-wide issues and plans in order to forge links within the agency and solve common problems across OTA Program lines. The retreat (our third) also gave senior management a chance to examine the work of the agency as a whole, in its efforts to serve the diverse analytical needs of Congress. The results have been better perspective, greater cooperation, and increased productivity. Visit to China. In January 1983 I was invited by the Academy of Sciences of the People's Republic of China to visit their country and discuss with leaders of the Academy and other professional groups their various technical problems and how OTA's methods might be adapted to China's needs. I scheduled my trip for mid-October 1984, a quiet time on the Congressional calendar, and, as it turned out, and an especially opportune time to be in China because the decisions about restructuring their economy (toward a more market-oriented one) were being made while I was there. Interest in OTA is intense, and I believe OTA's dialogue with Chinese scientists, engineers, and social scientists will be fruitful for both sides. Deliveries. OTA published three Assessment Reports during the quarter: Federal Policies and the Medical Devices Industry, Protecting the Nation's Groundwater From Contamination, and Civilian Space Stations and the U.S. Future in Space. We also published a Background Paper, Human Gene Therapy, and four Case Studies on medical devices that supplement the Assessment Report on that subject. OTA staff also testified on agricultural policy and risks posed to veterans by service in Vietnam.

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-2 -II. COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS A. Summarz of FY '84 Completions, Ongoing Work in FY Through December 31, 1984 FY '84 Products Released Total Formal Assessments 17 Other Technical Memoranda 4 Background Papers, Case Studies, or Workshop Proceedings 6 Testimony 42 Staff Memos or Substantial Letter Memoranda 18 Administrative Documents 6 Projects Approved Assessments 19 other ( Scope Changes; Special Responses Over 30K) Projects in Process as of December 31, 1984 1. In Press .fil. 3 0 5 2 1 4 0 5 '85, FY Assessments 9 Other (TM's~ Background Papers, etc.) 3 2. Under TAB Review O 3. In Progress Ass~ssments 26 Other 15 and New Starts '85 fil.

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-3 -II. COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS B. Products Released During the Quarter 1. Formal Assessment Reports FEDERAL POLICIES AND THE MEDICAL DEVICES INDUSTRY -This assessment fills some of the gaps in the basic information about the medical devices industry and analyzes implications of alternative Federal policies. The study developed information about the nature of firms that manufacture medical technologies, conducted case studies of selected medical devices, and examined present and proposed Federal policies that influence the medical devices industry and, in turn, the cost and effectiveness of medical devices. Interim Deliverables (Case Studies): Six medical devices were selected for detailed case study: Boston elbow (11/84), contact lenses (12/84), hemodialysis equipment (12/84), nuclear magnetic resonance (9/84), technologies for managing urinary incontinence, and wheelchairs (11/84). These devices perform different functions in medicine (diagnosis, treatment, and rehabilitation) and relate to different areas of policy (research and development, patents, premarketing approval, third-party payment, and government procurement). In addition, a Technical Memorandum, Procurement and Evaluation of Medical Devices by the Veterans Administration, will examine the policies of the Veterans Administration regarding the evaluation and purchase of medical devices. (Request: same as for full assessment.) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Chairman Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs Hon. Alan K. Simpson, Chairman Hon. Alan Cranston, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Jane E. Sisk, 6-2070 PROTECTING THE NATION'S GROUNDWATER FROM CONTAMINATION Groundwater contamination that can be attributed to human activity is being detected nation-wide and with increasing frequency, and it. can have serious and long-lasting impacts on human health, the environment, and local and regional economies. Because the conditions that have been identified as giving rise to groundwater contamination are so pervasive, there is a growing national concern about the amount of contamination that has yet to be detected and the vulnerability of this national resource to still further degradation. This study provides a comprehensive technical framework to assist the Congress in understanding and addressing the major groundwater contamination issues facing the nation. These issues relate to the "process" of contamination, from its occurrence and

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4 detection, to its associated impacts, mitigation, and/or management. Issues examined include determining the extent and nature of the nation's groundwater contamination, characterizing the transport and fate of contaminants, monitoring, information management, and mitigating g~oundwater contamination. Key federal policy options are also addressed. Request: Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Hon. Robert T. Stafford, Chairman Hon. Jennings Randolph, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Paula Stone, 6-2004 CIVILIAN SPACE STATIONS AND THE U.S. FUTURE IN SPACE Wi.th completion of the pre-operational phase of the Shuttle program, NASA is now actively considering another major civilian space program: a space station or permanent presence in space. Such a program has been described as the next logical step in space for the U.S. The quarter century since the space age's commencement has seen fundamental changes in the public perception of and ambitions for our continuing civil presence in space -changes brought about to a great extent by the extradordinary success of earlier space programs. Therefore, it is important that Congressional debate on any such program not only draw upon sound and comprehensive scientific and engineering information, but that financial, economic, international, and broad national security factors also be given careful consideration in the context of today's circumstances. This assessmemt was designed and conducted to illuminate all of these important considerations so as to help ensure that the debate will be well informed on all important contemporary issues. Salyut: Soviet Steps Toward a Human Presence in Space (Technical Memorandum) (December 1983) -A discussion of the development, current status, and future development of the Soviet Salyut Space Station Program. (Requester: Same as the full assessment) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Appropriations Hon. Jake Garn, Chairman, Subcommittee on HUD-Independent Agencies (endorsement) Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation Hon. Bob Packwood, Chairman Hon. Howard N. Cannon, then Ranking Minority Member Hon. Harrison Schmitt, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Technology and Space House Committee on the Budget Hon. James R. Jones, Chairman House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon. Ronnie G. Flippo, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Space Science and Applications Project Director: Tom Rogers, 6-2175

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5 II. B. 2. Other: Technical Memoranda, Background Papers, Workshop Proceedings, Committee Prints, and Administrative Reports CASE STUDY #28: INTENSIVE CARE UNITS: COSTS, OUTCOME, AND DECISIONMAKING --This case study was prepared as part of OTA's project, Medical Technology and Costs of the Medicare Program. It provides an overview of the development of intensive care units (ICU) and their rapid diffusion into medical practice. It presents information on their utilization costs and reimbursement. It also describes various measures of outcomes of intensive care and reviews the outcome literature. Finally, the intricacies of decisionmaking in the ICU are discussed, and policy implications are presented. CASE STUDY #29: THE BOSTON ELBOW (Case Study) (November 1984) --This study looks at how distribution of the Boston Elbow --a battery powered and myoelectrically controlled artificial arm --is affected by public policy, especially the design and implementation of disability benefits programs. CASE STUDY #30: THE MARKET FOR WHEEL CHAIRS: INNOVATIONS AND FEDERAL POLICY (Case Study) (November 1984) -Wheelchairs, for many disabled persons, are essential medical devices for work, mobility, and recreation. The characteristics, prices, and durability of these chairs are critical both to the quality of life of their users and to the costs incurred by the users, insurers, and government agencies. This study focusses on how federal policies affect innovations in wheelchair characteristics. CASE STUDY #31: THE CONTACT LENS INDUSTRY: STRUCTURE, COMPETITION, AND PUBLIC POLICY (Case Study) (December 1984) --This study presents an analysis of the contact lens industry in the United States, emphasizing the role of economics and public policy in shaping past and future development. CASE STUDY #32: THE HEMODIALYSIS EQUIPMENT AND DISPOSABLE INDUSTRY (Case Study) (December 1984) --The manufacturers of hemodialysis equipment and disposables belong to an unusually dynamic industry in which federal policy plays a critical role. This case study looks at reimbursement procedures for dialysis care, the federal contribution to research on end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and the practice of "reuse" of dialyzers. HUMAN GENE THERAPY (Background Paper) (December 1984) --This study investigated the political and legal implications of using recombinant DNA technology to treat human diseases. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Albert Gore, Jr., Chairman, Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight Project Director: Robert Cook-Deegan, 6-2034

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-6 -EMPLOYEE HANDBOOK (Update) (September 1984) ASSESSMENT ACTIVITIES (Update) (November 1984) ABSTRACTS OF CASE STUDIES IN THE HEALTH TECHNOLOGY CASE STUDY SERIES (Update) (November 1984) PUBLICATIONS LIST (Update) (December 1984)

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-7 OTA Staff Papers or Letter Memoranda Date 12/12/84 Subject Possible long term health effects among veterans exposed to nuclear radiation Related OTA Work Ongoing work in the Health program (mandated report)

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-8 -II. B. 3. Testimony Date 10/02/84 10/03/84 Committee/Chairman Joint Economic Committee (Senator Roger Jepsen) House Committee on Veterans' Affairs, Subcommittee on Hospitals and Health Care (Congressman Bob Edgar) Subject/Person Testifying Issues in Emerging Technologies, Public Policy, and Structural Change in American Agriculture (Michael J. Phillips) Review of the Centers for Disease Control Study, "Vietnam Veterans' Risks for Fathering Babies With Birth Defects" (Michael Gough and Hellen Gelband)

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-9 -II. C. Other Communication with Congress 1. Formal Briefings, Presentations, Workshops (With Committee Staffs) Committees of the House Agriculture o Farm Bill o Technology exchange with LDCs and low-input agr~culture for Africa Energy and Commerce o Study of children's mental health Foreign Affairs o Tropical forestry assessment Science and Technology Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Agriculture Research, and Environment o Study of technology and U.S. aid to Africa o Sustainable agriculture in less developed countries Ways and Means o Status of the Prospective Payment Assessment Commission and OTA's oversight role Select Committee on Children, Youth, and Families o Study of children's mental health Select Committee on Hunger o Study of technology and U.S. aid to Africa Committees of the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry o Study of biological diversity Environment and Public Works o Groundwater report findings Finance o Status of the Prospective Payment Assessment Commission and OTA's oversight role Foreign Relations o Tropical forestry assessment Labor and Human Resources o Study of children's mental health Other Senate Children's Caucus o Study of children's mental health

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10 -II. c. 2. Informal Discussions --Topics In addition to briefings and presentations, informal discussions take place continually, as requested by Members and staff. OTA staff members give updates on ongoing work and provide information that Members and Committees may need relative to legislation pending or under consideration or for hearings and related testimony. Topics International competitiveness of U.S. agriculture New construction technologies Leisure and recreation industries Nuclear proliferation Nuclear power Electric power R&D New electric generating technologies Energy tax policy Natural gas production enhancement Surface mine reclamation on prime farmlands and abandoned mine lands Coal surface mine reclamation in the West Waste and wastewater systems Energy and materials projects Physics projects Natural gas Advanced materials Acid rain Displaced workers Reemployment of displaced workers Oversight on JTPA Plant closing notifications Displaced homemakers and vocational education Superfund reauthorization Advanced materials workshop Strategic materials report status Trade and economic displacement Effects of nuclear war Landsat Technology transfer to the Peoples' Republic of China, the Middle East, and Japan Ballistic missile defense and anti-satellite weapons ICBM accuracy Human gene therapy Science and human rights Alzheimer's disease --research, long-term care, home care, and financing Medicaid process patents Novel reproductive technologies Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS)

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11 Federal regulatory review of animal welfare Federal funding of research in reproduction Animal welfare and testing Reproductive health hazards in the workplace Community-based health care of the elderly Prevalence of chronic disease Intergenerational financing issues related to health care of the elderly Sustainable agriculture systems in LDCs Tropical forestry issues Update on drugs in livestock feed study Small scale agriculture needs in new Farm Bill Use of pesticides overseas Medicare and research Outpatient coverage for surgical procedures Impact cost containment on blood banks Polygraph monitoring Effect of prospective payment on hospitals' purchases of blood and blood products, and the effect this has on blood center research and training programs Methods of identifying projects and funds for clinical research AIDS research and funding Indian health care CDC birth defects study Study of technologies for determining mutation frequencies Intentional release of genetically engineered microbes Bhopal disaster Carcinogen regulation Study of Medicare and diagnosis related groups Review of HCFA's Part A data systems Medical technologies with significant impact Vaccine production and distribution Parenteral nutrition Norwegian health care system Deliberate release of genetically modified organisms ProPAC Child health/preventive technologies Cost effectiveness of prevention Computer technology Computer models Social security computers GPO telecommunications Polygraph Congressional computers Computer security Intellectual property Groundwater report findings Protection of private drinking water supplies Toxics Safe Drinking Water Act National Groundwater Commission

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-12 -State groundwater-related activities EPA groundwater protection strategy Radioactive waste International cargo policy Trade and shipping Employment in maritime industries R&D and industrial policy Virgin Islands ferryboat Navy's manufacturing technology program Tanker accidents and oil spills Offshore petroleum development Antarctica Release of genetically engineered organisms into the environment Effects of air pollution on forests Acid rain control costs Oceans waste disposal Science policy issues Superconducting Supercollider (SSC) Future transportation research assessment Transportation of hazardous materials assessment High-technology development Federal-State relations in science and technology Technology transfer mechanisms Stevenson-Wydler reauthorization U.S./Soviet science and technology cooperation (space and nuclear winter) French/Soviet space cooperation and technology transfer issues U.S./East German science and technology cooperation European and Soviet views of U.S./Soviet cooperation Space station infrastructure Educational testing Airport system development

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-13 -DESCRIPTIONS AND REQUESTERS FOR CURRENT OTA ASSESSMENTS AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1984

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14 -II. D. Descriptions and Requesters of Projects A. IN PRESS AS OF 12/31/84 POTENTIAL U.S. NATURAL GAS AVAILABILITY -This study estimated, for the U.S. lower 48 states, the production potential of conventional and unconventional natural gas over the next 20 to 30 years and analyzed the technical f~ctors that would affect this potential. The study produced a series of projections of the recoverable resource base and year 2000 production potential for conventional gas and three sources of unconventional gas: tight gas, Devonian Shale gas, and coal seam methane. Each projection was expressed as a range, reflecting technical and economic uncertainties, and these uncertainties were evaluated and extensively explained. A number of government and private sector projections of resources and production were evaluated. The potential effect of price decontrol on gas recovery from the nation's older fields was calculated; publication of the OTA analysis on decontrol appeared to resolve the controversy that had surrounded this specific issue. This report, in draft form, has been used extensively in the debate over natural gas pricing. U.S. Natural Gas Availability: Conventional Gas Supply Through the Year 2000 (Technical Memorandum) (September 1983) -This Technical Memorandum describes and evaluates alternative estimates of the conventional natural gas resource base of the lower 48 states; describes and interprets past and current trends in discovery and production of this gas resource; and projects a credible range of potential (conventional) gas production for the next 15-20 years. (Requester: Same as for full assessment) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Hon. Pete Vo Domenici, Chairman, Subcommittee on Energy Research and Development House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman, co-signed by Hon. Philip R. Sharp, Chairman, Subcommittee on Fossil and Synthetic Fuels Hon. Gary Hart, Senator from Colorado Project Director: Steven Plotkin, 6-2110 STRATEGIC MATERIALS: TECHNOLOGIES TO REDUCE U.S. IMPORT VULNERABILITY -(Released January 1985) This study focusses on technical opportunities to reduce our vulnerability to interruptions in supply of strategic and critical imported materials in the longer term (S to 25 years) through, for example, substitution (including materials, process and product substitution), improved mining, processing and recycling technologies, and more efficient fabrication and design. The study also identifies

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15 -major changes in materials vulnerability that are likely to occur over the next 25 years because of advances in such fields as electronics, energy, and transportation. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Bob Packwood, Chairman Hon. Howard Cannon, then Ranking Minority Member Hon. Harrison Schmitt, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon. Doug Walgren, Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Research, and Technology Hon. Dan Glickman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Transportation, Aviation, and Materials Project Director: Lance N. Antrim, 6-2008 INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AND COMPETITION IN CIVILIAN SPACE ACTIVITIES (Summary published July 1984) This project evaluates the current status of international competition and cooperation in key areas of space technology in space science, and for educational and scientific exchange. It investigates ways in which space technologies and their products could be used as instruments of U.S. foreign policy, and examines military space activities insofar as they affect civilian programs and international commercial and political relations. UNISPACE Conference (Technical Memorandum) (March 1983) -Evaluates the technical and economic issues that arose in the United Nations Conference on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UNISPACE '82) in August 1982, where many of the important issues were discussed in an international context. (Requester: Same as for the full assessment) Remote Sensing and the Private Sector: Issues for Discussion (Technical Memorandum) (March 1984) -Explores the major issues that private ownership of remote sensing raises and identifies potential requirements or conditions the government may wish to impose on private sector offerors in order to preserve existing public benefits of remote sensing. (Requester: Same as for full assessment) Request or Affirlllation of Interest: House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon. Larry Winn, Jr., Ranking Minority Member Hon. Ronnie G. Flippo, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Space, Science, and Applications Hon. Harold C. Hollenbeck, Member Joint Economic Committee Hon. Roger W. Jepsen, then Vice Chairman; now Chairman Project Director: Ray Williamson, 6-2209

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16 -PREVENTING ILLNESS AND INJURY IN THE WORKPLACE The assessment includes: 1) discussion of workplace safety and health in the U.S.; 2) data about workplace injuries and illnesses; 3) major workplace health hazards and diseases; 4) a description of technologies .for evaluation and control o.f occupational health and safety hazards; 5) supplemental tools for occupational safety and health (e.g., occupational medicine, epidemiology, education, and training); 6) the roles of OSHA and NIOSH; 7) an analysis of the impacts of OSHA standard setting and enforcement; 8) the uses and limits of economic analysis in decisionmaking for occupational safety and health; 9) strategies for control of workplace safety and health hazards; 10) reindustrialization and occupational safety and health; and 11) safety and health in the workplace of the future. Case Study Deliverables to be combined in a single Background Paper (Spring 1985) 1) OSHA Health Inspection Data 2) The Role of Economic Analysis in Health and Safety Regulation 3) New Technologies for Controlling Cotton Dust Exposure 4) The Effects of the OSHA Lead Standard 5) Controls for Silica Exposure 6) The Cause, Diagnosis, and Treatment of Carpal Tunnel Syndrome 7) Safety and Health Hazards in the Office Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Chairman House Committee on Education and Labor Hon. George Miller, Chairman, Subcommittee on Labor Standards House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Project Director: Michael Gough, 6-2070 STATUS OF BIOMEDICAL RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY FOR TROPICAL DISEASES The assessment examines the status of biomedical and epidemiological research and related technology development in the area of tropical diseases. The traditional tropical diseases --malaria, schistosomiasis, trypanosomiasis -are covered, as well as other conditions which, while not confined to the tropics, pose major public health problems in those areas. The natural history, epidemiology, and health effects of each disease is described and the status of prevention, diagnosis, and treatment assessed. Contributions of the fast-moving fields of immunology and microbiology are highlighted. The role of development in the prevention and spread of disease is included. The assessment focusses on the importance of tropical disease research to the U.S. population. It analyzes data on the diseases' prevalence, on the burden posed by them, and on sources and levels (both U.S. and foreign) of research funding. The assessment was designed to define research priorities. It examines the status of research and

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17 -technology in the major disease areas, identifies areas of promise for continued or increased funding, and presents a series of options for making decisions about research funding, technology development and testing, and other policies regarding tropical diseases. In addition, the assessment develops specific information on Gorgas Memorial Laboratory research areas and accomplishments. Quality and Relevance of Research and Related Activities at Gorgas Memorial Laboratory (Technical Memorandum) (August 1983) -OTA examined the quality and relevance of research at the Gorgas Memorial Laboratory (GML) in tropical public health. GML is the functioning unit of the Gorgas Memorial Institute of Tropical and Preventive Medicine, Inc., a private, non-profit, currently federally funded corporation. The Laboratory is located in Panama, and has operated since 1928. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Appropriations Hon. Mark Hatfield, Chairman Hon. Lowell Weicker, Chairman, Subcommittee on Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education. Project Director: Hellen Gelband, 6-2070 BLOOD POLICY AND TECHNOLOGY -Technologies affecting the availability, uses, and risks of blood products are assessed. New technologies are assessed in the areas of (1) blood collection, processing, storage, and distribution; (2) identification, isolation, production, and use of blood components; (3) blood substitutes; and (4) identification and prevention of blood-transmitted diseases and other risks. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Project Director: Larry Miike, 6-2070 TECHNOLOGY AND AGING IN AMERICA -(Summary published October 1984) Improved health care and increased understanding of the physiology of aging, as well as applications of computers, robotics, and telecommunications in the home and workplace, may increase the life expectancy, independence, productivity, and quality of life for the aging American population. This study assesses the role of technology in the health and life sciences, employment, housing, and long-term care services. Where appropriate,. international comparisons of responses to elderly populations (within the industrialized world) were made to suggest options for Congressional consideration.

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18 Impact of Neurosciences (Background Paper) (March 1984) Because several mental and organic brain disorders, such as depression, insomnia, and Alzheimer disease, become more.common with age, and because the population itself is aging, neuroscience research into these and other disorders will become increasingly important. This paper reviews the status of basic neuroscience research into these disorders and explores some of the broad social and ethical issues that might arise from such research. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Special Committee on Aging Hon. John Heinz, Chairman Hon. Lawton Chiles, then Ranking Minority Member House Select Committee on Aging Hon. Claude Pepper, then Chairman; still Member ~on. Matthew Rinaldo, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Edward R. Roybal, current Chairman House Committee on Education and Labor Hon. Carl D. Perkins, Chairman Project Director: Robert Harootyan, 6-2095 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT: CRITICAL TRENDS AND ISSUES --Assesses future patterns of research and development in information technologies to: 1) characterize current information technology R&D activities by U.S. and selected foreign entities; 2) analyze impacts of expected changes in industry, Federal policy, competition and technology on U.S. R&D; 3) assess the effects of changing R&D patterns on future U.S. competitiveness; and 4) identify alternative Federal policies for encouraging R&D in the information technologies. Requesters: House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon. Larry Winn, Jr., Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chairman Hon. James T. Broyhill,,Ranking Minority Member Hon. Timothy E. Wirth, Chairman, Subcommittee on Telecommunications, Consumer Protection, and Finance Project Director: Rick Weingarten, 6-2240 MANAGING HIGH-LEVEL COMMERCIAL RADIOACTIVE WASTE (Summary published; Final Report scheduled for publishing in February 1985) Analyzes the techniques and procedures for the safe disposal of commercial high-level radioactive waste and evaluates a range of disposal strategies.

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19 -Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Howard W. Cannon, then Chairman Hon. Ernest F. Hollings, then Vice Chairman, National Ocean Policy Study; now Ranking Minority of the Committee Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Hon. Henry M. Jackson, then Chairman House Committee on Foreign Affairs Hon. Clement J. Zablocki, then Chairman House Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries Hon. John B. Breaux:, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Oceanography House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Project Director: Tom Cotton, 6-2132

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20 -B. IN PROGRESS AS OF 12/31/84 Energy, Materials, and International Security Division EFFECTS OF TECHNOLOGY ON THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC TRANSITION -New technologies, growing international competition in markets once dominated by U.S. suppliers, and dramatic changes in the cost and availability of oil and other critical resources may lead to a fundamental change in the structure of the U.S. economy. These changes could also change the utility of major classes of public policy. The analysis conducted for this project will describe ways the national economy may change during the next two decades, explore the ways these changes may alter prospects for employment and profitable investment in different major classes of economic activities, describe how the changes may alter critical aspects of the quality of life in America, and examine the implications of these changes for national policy. The analysis will be constructed around seven tightly integrated projects. Six of these will be designed to explore plausible ways the economy may move to meet basic market requirements during the next two decades and the nature of the employment and investment opportunities created. The areas covered will include: the health industries, agriculture and food processing, construction, transportation and communication, education, and "leisure-time" industries. At least two possibilities will be considered i~ each case: (1) an extrapolation of current trends, and (2) an analysis of ways the market could be met assuming that new technologies were introduced with no market "imperfections" except those explicitly introduced where markets clearly are inadequate (e.g., regulations designed to protect the environment). This analysis of "potentials" will not be a forecast in the conventional sense but would be designed to illuminate the range of possible impacts of new technologies. When the "potential" analysis differs significantly from projections based on trends, the work will provide a convenient basis for determining whether or not the divergence results from poorly designed federal programs. A separate project will examine basic manufacturing and service industries not covered elsewhere. Each of these projects will result in a separate publication and an evaluation of specific policy problems identified in the sectors covered. The components will be combined systematically using a simple accounting procedure developed for the project. Where relevant, the results will be compared with major macroeconomic models developed elsewhere. The integrated analysis will be used to examine major national policy issues affecting capital formation, employment, international competition, investments in infrastructure, research and development priorities, and other areas of major national interest. International Competitiveness of U.S. Agriculture (Technical Memorandum) --Within the past decade, exports have become the key to the economic vitality of U.S. agriculture. For example, exports now comprise about one qua~ter of U.S. corn production, half of all wheat

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-21 -production, and 40 percent 9f soybean production. As the Congress faces the task of reauthorizing basic farm legislation in 1985, America's prospects as an agricultural exporter will be a matter of great Congressional interest. This Technical Memorandum will inform the Congress about factors influencing America's competitive status in world markets for raw agricultural commodities and high value agricultural products. A concurrent OTA study of the effects of technological change on the structure of American agriculture (Technology, Public Policy,and the Changing Structure of American Agriculture) will provide information about emerging agricultural production technologies in the United States and their likely effects on productivity. The Technical Memorandum will compliment the structure study by examining how the transfer of technologies developed in the U.S. to production conditions elsewhere, and how such transfers could affect our competitive position. The study will also help identify areas of theoretical and empirical uncertainty in the understanding of the competitive environment for U.S. agriculture. (Requester: Hon. Roger Jepsen, Chairman, Joint Economic Committee) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon._ Bob Packwood, Chairman Hon. Ernest Hollings, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Larry Pressler, Chairman, Subcommittee on Business, Trade,, and Tourism Senate Committee on the Budget Hon. Pete V. Domenic!, Chairman Hon. Lawton Chiles, Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman House Committee on Post Office and Civil Service Hon~ William D. Ford, Chairman House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman House Committee on Education and Labor Hon. Carl D. Perkins, Chairman House Committee on the Judiciary Hon. Peter W. Rodino, Chairman House Committee on Public Works and Transportation Hon. James J. Howard, Chairman House Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs Hon. Fernand J. St Germain, Chairman Hon. Chalmers P. Wylie, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Henry Kelly, 6-3960 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: Summer 1985 LOAD MANAGEMENT AND GENERATING TECHNOLOGIES FOR ELECTRIC UTILITIES IN THE 1990's -Electric utilities are more constrained in their choice of

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-22 -generating technologies than they were a decade ago when they engaged in a massive construction program of large powerplants. In the early eighties, with depleted financial reserves, and faced with uncertainties in electricity demand forecasts, utilities are avoiding commitments to complex, long-lead time, large powerplants. The Federal government, through a portion of its research and development funding, renewable tax credits, and regulation encouraging the purchase of power from dispersed sources, has directly and indirectly encouraged the development of a series of new technologies that have in comm.on the small size and short lead times which in theory offer greater flexibility to utilities. Such new technologies include: utility-controlled load management, fuel cells, advanced coal and gas combustion technologies, photovoltaics, solar thermal power, wind and low.head hydro. The purpose of this assessment is to determine if utilities perceive these technoloiges as in fact being of likely practical significance in providing more flexible generating capacity. Do utilities anticipate problems in planning, constructing, maintaining, dispatching, and controlling these technologies that will hinder their use? Are these technologies likely to be adopted in significant numbers by non-utility-users which will then sell power to the grid? Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Project Director: Peter Blair, 6-2133 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: February 1985 TECHNOLOGIES FOR SURFACE MINE RECLAMATION ON WESTERN FEDERAL LANDS -In the seven years since enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA), coal companies have made significant improvements in reclamation technologies and methodologies, and the prospects for the success of surface mine reclamation have brightened. Yet considerable doubts still exist among most parties in the surface mining debate as to the ability to reclaim certain types of land or mitigate particular types of impacts. In particular, concerns have been raised about the costs of, and the short-and long-term prospects for, revegetation and reclamation on lands with: limited precipitation and/or high evapotranspiration rates, slopes exceeding 40 percent, a lack of adequate topsoil material, saline or alkali soil structures (or sodic conditions resulting from lack of topsoil), or a high potential for wind erosion. Debate also continues on the most successful methods for mitigating impacts to the hydrologic regime, to archaeological and paleontological sites, and to wildlife resources. This study will assess the effectiveness of current mining and reclamation technologies and methodologies, and the fairness and effectiveness of Federal programs and policies, in fulfilling the statutory mandates for environmental protection on Federal lands in the West. Methods for evaluating the success of reclamation practices, including the levels and kinds of uncertainty, will be studied, as will the relative costs and benefits of various reclamation techniques. An important part of

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23 the study will be an evaluation of the techniques for reclaiming abandoned mined lands. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs Hon. Morris K. Udall, Chairman Project Director: Jenifer Robison, 6-2134 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: June 1985 TECHNOLOGY AND STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT: REEMPLOYING DISPLACED ADULTS This study is examining how estimates of adult worker displacement are made and how uncertainties in the estimates could be reduced. Reemployment and retraining programs, domestic and foreign, will be evaluated as to their ability to reduce unemployment and provide reasonable opportunities to displaced adults. Alternatives to displacement, such as continuing education for adults, plant conversion, and worker buyouts, will be assessed with respect to their ability to avoid displacement problems. Structural factors affecting the success of reemployment programs, including the rate and type of job creation, changes in patterns of international trade, and changing technology, will be examined. The role of technology in changing the skills that workers will need will be evaluated and the place of advanced educational technology in retraining adults will be assessed. Preliminary OTA work on how the effects of changing technology are incorporated into BLS labor force predictions are being used as background material by the Subcommittee on General Oversight and the Economy of the House Committee on Small Business in its attempts to make the projections more useful to the Congress. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Finance Hon. Bob Dole, Chairman Hon. John Heinz, Chairman, Subcommittee on Economic Growth, Employment, and Revenue Sharing Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin Hatch, Chairman Hon. Dan Quayle, Chairman, Subcommittee on Employment and Productivity House Committee on Small Business Hon. Parren J. Mitchell, Chairman Hon. Berkley Bedell, Chairman, Subcommittee on General Oversight and the Economy Project Director: Julie Gorte, 6-2205 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: June 1985

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24 CLEANUP OF UNCONTROLLED HAZARDOUS WASTE SITES UNDER SUPERFUND The major objectives are to: (1) perform a comparative analysis of available and emerging cleanup technologies to reveal their advantages and disadvantages, costs, effectiveness, and R&D needs; (2) examine site and cleanup technology selection processes; (3) examine current procedures and future needs for setting cleanup goals; (4) assess how active and perhaps permitted waste management facilities may become future uncontrolled sites; (5) examine how the technical qualifications of personnel and Federal-State coordination affect the effectiveness of cleanup implementation; and (6) examine a number of economic issues and develop legislative options combining different choices for cleanup technologies, goals, and costs. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon. James H. Scheuer, Chairman, Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Agriculture Research, and Environment House Committee on Agriculture Hon. George E. Brown, Chairman, Subcommittee on Department Operations, Research, and Foreign Agriculture House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chairman Hon. James J. Florio, Chairman, Subcommittee on Commerce, Transportation, and Tourism Project Director: Joel Hirschhorn, 6-2089 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: February 1985 INTERNATIONAL COMPETITION IN SERVICES --The services have become mainstays of the U.S. economy, both in terms of domestic employment and foreign sales. Many are driven by new technologies. The U.S. balance of payments position depends heavily on income from foreign sales of intangibles to counterbalance, if only in part, merchandise deficits. Exports of technology-intensive manufactures --commercial aircraft, power generating equipment, electronic systems --are frequently tied to training and maintenance contracts. New developments in many of the service industries stem directly from technical advances. Increasingly, the Western European nations and Japan offer strong competition in international markets for technologically-based services. The analytical approach in this assessment will be based on that developed in past OTA studies of competitiveness: three to five service industries will be selected for detailed analysis based on business strategies as affected by technological developments, industrial structure, and government policies.

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-25 -Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Hon. Charles Percy, Chairman Hon. Charles McC. Mathias, Jr., Chairman, Subcommittee on International Economic Policy Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Hon. William V. Roth, Jr., Chairman House Committe on Small Business Hon. Parren Mitchell, Chairman Hon. Berkley Bedell, Chairman, Subcommittee on General Oversight and the Economy House Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs Hon. John J. LaFalce, Chairman, Subcommittee on Economic Stabilization Project Director: John Alic, 6-2012 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: May 1986 I STRATEGIC COMMAND, CONTROL, COMMUNICATIONS, AND INTELLIGENCE (C 3I) SYSTEMS -Will assess the technical capabilities and vulnerabilities of present U.S. c3 I systems with special emphasis on additions to the system that could usefully be made in the near term with available technology. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Hon. Ted $tevens (then Chairman, OTA Congressional Board) at the request of the Hon. Paul Laxalt, Chairman, Subcommittee on Military Construction, Senate Committee on Appropriations House Committee on Appropriations Hon. Joseph P. Addabbo, Chairman, Subcommittee on Defense Project Director: Bruce Blair, 6-2015 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: February 1985 NEW BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE TECHNOLOGIES --President Reagan's "strategic defense initiative" (SDI) calls for a greatly accelerated program of research and development of ballistic missile defense (BMD) systems, with the avowed goal of "eliminating the threat posed by nuclear ballistic missiles." The Defense Department has responded with a plan that would alter existing policies in three major ways: 1) it shifts R&D emphasis from relatively conservative technologies to relatively high risk but potentially high payoff technologies, including spacebased directed energy weapons; 2) it calls for a substantial increase in funding, especially in FY '86 and thereafter; and 3) it implicitly calls into question our commitment to the 1972 ABM Treaty. Although the President intends to keep R&D activities within the bounds set by the Treaty, deployment of these systems would certainly require extensive modification of, or withdrawal from, the treaty.

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-26 The study is developing criteria for assessing potential BMD systems and their components by identifying a range of possible objectives for a deployed system and translating these into performance requirements. Assessment criteria will also be developed for evaluating the effects of potential BMD systems on crisis and arms race stability, arms control, alliance relations, and foreign relations generally. The assessment aims at identifying performance levels that can reasonably be expected in specified time frames, and assessing proposed technologies and systems on the basis of feasible rather than ideal levels of performance. It will also examine their likely cost and technical risk. The project also includes analysis of anti-satellite (ASAT) systems, since ASAT and BMD technologies are inherently related -advanced BMD systems would almost certainly have ASAT capabilities, and ASAT systems are among the critical possible countermeasures to a BMD system. The project will produce two reports, one on BMD technologies, and a smaller one on ASATs, plus several classified documents providing technical back-up for the published reports. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Armed Services Hon. Melvin Price, Chairman Hon. William L. Dickinson, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Les Aspin, Member Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Hon. Charles H. Percy, Chairman Hon. Claiborne Pell, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Larry Pressler, Member Hon. Paul Tsongas, Member Project Director: Tom Karas, 6-2014 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: March 1985 Health and Life Sciences Division TECHNOLOGY, PUBLIC POLICY1 AND THE CHANGING STRUCTURE OF AMERICAN AGRICULTURE During the past three decades, technological change and innovation in biological systems, labor-saving mechanization, transportation, and agricultural chemicals have played an important role in increasing agricultural productivity. They have also contributed to changing the very nature of agriculture. Today, farm operators account for only 3 percent of the U.S. population. Twenty percent of all farms now produce 80 percent of the food and fiber in the United States. Increased capital and kinds of skills are needed to sustain farms. Such changes have important implications for society. Technology is only partly responsible for these changes. Public policy has also played a role. However, little is known about which policies in conjunction with technology adoption have speeded up, slowed down, or reversed the trends in structural change~

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27 -This assessment is focussing on future and emerging technologies in other animal, plant, chemical, mechanization, and information areas and their implications for agricultural structure. The possiblity of developing technologies for different kinds of agriculture structures will be explored. The assessment will explore linkages between policy and structure so policymakers can have a clearer understanding of the factors that influence the evolution of the agricultural sector. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman, co-signed by Hon. James H. Scheuer, Chairman, Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Agriculture Research, and Environment House Committee on Agriculture Hon. Tom Harkin, Chairman, Subcommittee on Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Hon.George E. Brown, Chairman, Subcommittee on Department Operations, Research, and Foreign Agriculture Hon. Charles Whitley, Chairman, Subcommittee on Forests, Family Farms, and Energy Senate Committee on Small Business Hon. Larry Pressler, Chairman, Subcommittee on Small Business: Family Farm Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Hon. Jesse Helms, Chairman Joint Economic Committee Hon. Roger W. Jepsen, Chairman Hon. Lee H. Hamilton, Vice Chairman Hon. James Abdnor, Chairman, Subcommittee on Agriculture Project Director: Mike Phillips, 6-2189 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: April 1985 TECHNOLOGIES TO MAINTAIN BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY -Maintaining biological diversity of plants and animals is both a matter of insurance and investment necessary to sustain and improve agriculture, to keep open future options for medical discoveries, and as the raw material for industrial innovation and genetic engineering. Agricultural development needs wild plants as a source of new genes to increase yields, to improve disease resistance, and to increase the ability of crops to withstand extreme environmental stresses. Wild plants are used by the pharmaceutical industry as sources of valuable compounds that, once discovered in nature, sometimes can be synthesized in the laboratory. Animal physiology affords many clues to the origins and nature of human ailments. For example, the cotton-topped marmoset, a species of monkey susceptible to lymphatic cancer, is helping to produce a potent anticancer vaccine. Genetic engineering, an emerging technology with great potentials for agriculture, depends on biological diversity for the raw material to engineer. Thus loss of diversity could reduce the potential opportunities that.this technology offers. But while the importance of diverse biological resources is receiving increasing

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-28 -attention, diversity appears to be declining and valuable reservoirs of germ plasm are disappearing. In order to identify opportunities to maintain biological diversity, OTA will: 1) assess the status of biological diversity and its rates of change; 2) assess the economic, social, ecological, and political implications of a decline in biological diversity; 3) assess technologies (both in situ and ex situ) to maintain plant and animal biological diversity; 4) assess the role of institutions and U.S.-funded agencies (e.g., U.N. and World Bank) in developing and transferring beneficial technologies for maintaining biological diversity; and 5) identify policy options that will facilitate the development and use of such technologies to maintain biological diversity. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Hon. Jesse Helms, Chairman Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Hon. Claiborne Pell House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman House Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries Hon. Walter Jones, Chairman Hon. Joel Pritchar~, Ranking Minority Member Hon. John B. Breaux, Chairman, Subcommittee on Fisheries and Wildlife Conservation and the Environment Hon. Don Young, Chairman, Subcommittee on Fisheries and Wildlife Conservation and the Environment House Committee on Foreign Affairs Hon. Dante Fascell, Chairman Hon. Don Bonker, Chairman, Subcommittee on International Economic Policy and Trade Hon. Gus Yatron, Chairman, Subcommittee on Human Rights and International Organizations House Committee on Agriculture Hon. E. de la Garza, Chairman Project Director: Susan Shen, 6-2256 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: September 1986 INTEGRATED RENEWABLE RESOURCES MANAGEMENT FOR U.S. INSULAR AREAS --U.S. insular areas in the Caribbean (Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands) and the Pacific (Guam, American Samoa, Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas, and the Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands) have experienced considerable historical land resource degradation. Freshwater supplies may be highly variable and tropical soils and waters can be relatively infertile, requiring special management consideration. Today they rely heavily on food imports, and many local food production technologies and incentives have been lost. The U.S., Hawaii, and territorial governments have voiced commitments to greater food production diversity and self-sufficiency. Activities in Hawaii provide models of these developments.

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-29 The small size and limited resources of these insular areas require that land planning consider the capability of sites to sustain agriculture and aquaculture; the probable impacts of development on other resources; and alternatives to traditional management schemes that may be more appropriate to the economies and ecologies of these areas. Technologies designed for temperate, continental agriculture and aquaculture --frequently dependent on relatively low cost energy supplies, large capital outlays, and well-developed markets --typically are not suitable for tropical insular areas. Reaping sustained benefits from food production developments requires technologies appropriate to resource characteristics and incentive schemes appropriate to cultural settings that encourage integrated development and management of island resources. In order to assess technologies for insular renewable resource management and development, OTA will: 1) review data on freshwater demands, supplies and uses and assess water supply enhancement and conservation technologies; 2) assess agricultural technologies given the availability and quality of water and land supplies; 3) assess aquaculture technologies alone and in combination with agricultural technologies; and 4) assess maricultural technologies for their suitability in the insular settings; 5) identify integrated land capability analysis technologies appropriate to island resource development; and 6) assess certain opportunities in case studies that include implementation action plans. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Comm,ittee on Energy and Natural Resources Hon. James A. McClure, Chairman Hon. Spark Matsunaga House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs Hon. Morris K. Udall, Chairman Hon. Antonio B. Won Pat, Chairman, Subcommittee on Insular Affairs Project Director: Alison Hess, 6-2198 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: March 1986 EVALUATION OF AGENT ORANGE PROTOCOL -As mandated by PL 96-151, reviews epidemiologic studies regarding long-term health effects of veterans exposed to dioxins in Vietnam. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Mandated by PL 96-151. Project Director: Michael Gough, 6-2070 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: Indeterminate

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30 -MEDICAL TECHNOLOGY AND DIAGNOSIS RELATED GROUPS: EVALUATING MEDICARE'S PROSPECTIVE PAYMENT SYSTEM --In order to control the rapidly rising costs of the Medicare program, the Social Security Amendments of 1983 mandated a new Medicare hospital payment system: prospective payment based on Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs). The new system is radically different from previous ones. Plans must be made for a comprehensive evaluation of its effects, and assumptions about its implications must be explicitly tested. One of the key areas of impact will be on the development and use of medical technologyQ The OTA study will not be the evaluation itself; rather, it is to be a complete layout of the critical, medical technology related issues that need addressing. It will: 1) identify the range of possible effects related to medical technology and its use; 2) identify evaluation measures; 3) identify ongoing or planned monitoring and evaluation activities; 4) identify shortcomings and gaps in these activities; 5) develop an overall design for evaluation, including timing, methodology, priorities, and the role of current or planned efforts. Examples of issues relating to medical technology are: rates of development and adoption of medical technology, changes in quality of care, effects of the DRG system on various types of hospitals, ability of the DRG system to account for severity of illness, whether the DRG system adequately reflects best medical practice, and cost shifting (e.g., from Medicare to other payers). Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Finance Hon. Bob Dole, Chairman Hon. Russell B. Long, Ranking Minority Member Senate Special Committee on Aging Hon. John Heinz, Chairman Hon. John Glenn, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Judith Wagner, 6-2070 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: February 1985 TECHNOLOGY AND INDIAN HEALTH CARE: EFFECTIVENESS, ACCESS, AND EFFICIENCY -Despite some improvement, the health status of American Indians and Alaska Natives remains substantially below that of the general U.S. population. Because of the Federal Government's special responsibilities for the delivery and financing of health care for nearly one million of the 1.5 million Indians in the U.S., Congress continues to be concerned about th~ quality, appropriateness, accessibility, and financing of such care. This project will be a comprehensive examination of health technologies and services provided to Indians and of whether those technologies and services are appropriate and adequate in view of the health problems of Indians. The assessmment will: 1) analyze the quality and adequacy of data on Indian health status, including trends over time, 2) identify the types and distribution of technologies and services available through the Indian Health Service and other providers, 3) determine the desirable range and methods of delivery of health-related technologies and services, given

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-31 -our conclusions on health status, and compare this range to the current situation, and 4) develop policy options to improve the selection, provision, financing, and delivery of technologies and services to Indian populations. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chairman Hon. Henry A. Waxman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment Senate Select Committee on Indian Affairs Hon. Mark Andrews, Chairman Hon. John Melcher, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Larry Miike, 6-2070 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: December 1985 PHYSICIANS AND MEDICAL TECHNOLOGY: USE, COST, AND PAYMENT METHODS -Physicians directly or indirectly account for an estimated 80 percent of expenditures on medical technologies. Efforts to control the use and cost of medical technology have concentrated on hospitals, as evidenced by the current approach under Medicare to pay hospitals according to diagnosis related groups (DRGs). But attention is increasingly turning to physicians, because as gatekeepers, they control much of technology use and because technologies may move out of locations where payment is constrained and into physicians' offices and other ambulatory sites. And Medicare expenditures on physician services have been growing more rapidly than hospital care. In accordance with a provision in the Deficit Reduction Act of 1984 (Public Law 98-369) the Office of Technology Assessment is examining alternative methods of paying physicians under the Medicare program, with particular attention to the use and cost of medical technology. Congressional committees are interested in relative fees for different technologies and different physician specialties, incentives for the use of primary care and other technologies, moderation of increases in Medicare expenditures, participation of physicians in Medicare, access to care by Medicare beneficiaries, and quality of care provided. This study will examine current patterns of physician expenditures and use, identify areas of inefficient or inequitable technology use for Medicare beneficiaries, and develop options for physician payment under Medicare to address the problems identified. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Select Committee on Aging Hon. John Heinz, Chairman Hon. John Glenn, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Jane Sisk, 6-2070 Projected Delivery Date to TAB:. January 1936

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32 -TECHNOLOGIES FOR DETERMINING INTERGENERATIONAL MUTATION FREQUENCIES IN HUMAN BEINGS --Mutations are permanent changes in the genetic information contained in chromosomes and DNA of cells. When they occur in germ cells --egg or sperm cells --they are passed on to succeeding generations. Always a concern in public health, mutations are becoming a policy issue because of claims that they have been caused by exposures to radiation and chemicals. Little is known about the frequency of human mutations, and evidence is insufficient to decide whether or not external factors contribute in any significant way to the frequency despite the reasonable ~ontention that they probably do. Technologic breakthroughs may make it possible to determine mutation rates directly. The new methods require drawing blood and analyzing proteins or DNA or a particular gene for genetic changes. The assessment will: 1) detail the status and limits of knowledge about human mutations and mutation frequencies; 2) review the current methods used to study human mutations; 3) describe methods now under development and being considered; 4) estimate when each of the new methods might be available for studying human populations and the size of the experiments that would be necessary to produce useful results; and 5) develop policy options to spur the research and application of appropriate methods. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs Hon. Alan K. Simpson, Chairman Hon. Alan Cranston, Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Project Director: Mike Gough, 6-2070 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: September 1985 ALTERNATIVES TO ANIMAL USE IN TESTING, RESEARCH, AND EDUCATION -Approximately 70 million animals are used annually for both toxicity testing and biomedical and behavioral research. tn a large percentage of cases, these animals are killed during the course of, or following the completion of, the experimental protocol. Toxicity testing and biomedical and behavioral research are two very distinct disciplines, and animal use and its possible alternatives must be examined in light of their differences. This assessment is examining the current patterns of acquisition and use of animals in the distinctly different disciplines of toxicity testing and biomedical and behavioral research. In addition, the feasibility and cost of developing technologies that could potentially substitute for animals in either of these areas is being evaluated. Since toxicity testing employs about 20 percent of all laboratory

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33 -animals used annually, OTA is also analyzing regulatory testing requirements in both.the United States and selected foreign countries to determine whether they can be made more uniform in their acceptance of non-animal test results. Finally, this study will briefly summarize the ethical issues concerning animal use in order to help understand the reasons for the current controversy. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin Hatch, Chairman House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Doug Walgren, Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Research, and Technology Senator Alan Cranston Project Director: Gary Ellis, 6-2099 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: April 1985 REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH HAZARDS IN THE WORKPLACE Today there are nearly 60,000 chemicals in use in the United States with an additional 700 to 1,000 introduced into the marketplace each year. The production of synthetic chemicals is increasing faster than our knowledge of the relationship between chemical exposures and chemically induced diseases such as cancer and birth defects. Concern over reproductive hazards in the workplace is increasing not only because more chemicals are being produced that can affect the reproductive capacity of men and women but also because more women are entering the workplace. In 1982, there were 48 million women workers; the projected number is 57 million by 1990. The reproductive hazards of some agents, such as smoking, alcohol, anesthetic gases, and lead, are well known. However, the effects of many chemicals are only partially understood from animal studies and many remain to be tested. The available data on the level of reproductive impairment in the population are difficult to interpret because of different definitions of the reproductive endpoint and differences in the ease of ascertaining that endpoint. Two examples are the difficulty of ascertaining the incidence of spontaneous abortions and the problem of measuring the prevalence of birth defects because of differences in definition. A major issue in reproductive hazards in the workplace is the differential treatment accorded males and females. Males, females, and the developing fetus have different susceptibilities and different rights. How to treat female workers has an added dimension because the fetus is biologically dependent on the female. Through legislation, both research and regulatory agencies have been established to ascertain the level of potential hazards, evaluate

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34 -scientific evidence, and set standards for permissible levels. One important question is the relationship of setting process to the level of scientific knowledge. issue is the relationship between these two and recent litigation. exposure the standard Another important and past This assessment will evaluate the current scientific knowledge base with respect to reproductive hazards in order to outline policy options for the management of reproductive hazards in the workplace. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Rous~ Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman House Committee on Agriculture Hon. George E. Brown, Jr., Chairman, Subcommittee on Department Operations, Research, and Foreign Agriculture Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Chairman Project Director: Louise Williams, 6-2082 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: February 1985 LIFE-SUSTAINING TECHNOLOGIES AND THE ELDERLY --Recent technological advances in the treatment of chronic disease and acute illness, combined with greater access to such care, make it possible to keep persons alive who might never have survived in the past. One result is that more older persons than ever before are surviving to the oldest ages (75 and over). These advances, however, are accompanied by complex legal, ethical, and financial issues concerning the definition of death, appropriate use of life-sustaining technologies, quality of life, patients' rights, surrogate decisionmaking, and the allocation of federal resources. Data indicate that up to 30 percent of all Medicare reimbursements (more than $57 billion in 1983) are made for care of older Americans in their last year of life; half of all nursing home costs are paid by federal Medicaid dollars. This assessment will examine these technological advances and their implications for the elderly. It will: 1) provide a classification of life-sustaining technologies and describe their development, including prospects for the future; 2) evaluate different technologies that are now applied in different situations and settings (e.g., end-stage renal dialysis (ESRD), resuscitation, ventilation, alimentation, etc.); 3) describe the elderly subpopulations that are affected; 4) review ethical problems in different settings and situations (hospital, nursing home, residence); 5) evaluate the ethical issues related to patients' rights; 6) present data on attitudes toward life-sustaining technologies and patients' rights (professional associations, groups representing the elderly, surveys of the public and health care providers, etc.); 7) review methods for determining mental competence and surrogate decisionmaking for the demented elderly; 8) evaluate federal and State laws regarding patients' rights, surrogate decisionmaking, living wills, etc.; and 9) review data and issues

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35 -concerning federal and other public costs related to current and potential applications of life-sustaining technologies. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Special Committee on Aging Hon. John Heinz, Chairman House Select Committee on Aging Hon. Edward R. Roybal, Chairman Project Director: Robert Harootyan, 6-2095 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: April 1986 DISORDERS CAUSING DEMENTIA --The economic, social, and health problems associated with disorders that cause deterioration of mental function (dementia) are growing rapidly. Current estimates of the cost of providing long-term care nationwide are approximately $30 billion annually for nursing homes and another $14 billion for other forms (1983); with $12 billion derived from Federal sources (Medicare, Medicaid, Veterans Administration, etc.). Disorders leading to dementia are estimated to account for over half of these costs. These figures, and the other costs associated with dementia (emotional distress among friends and family, costs of acute medical care, including diagnosis, and income lost due to the disease) threaten to rise rapidly as the proportion of very old people (over 80) in the population continues to increase much faster than other age groups. This assessment will consider Federal policy relating to two major Federal functions: 1) support of research intended to provide treatment or means of prevention, and 2) financing and monitoring of long-term care for those who have dementia. The assessment will survey the status of basic biomedical research and health services research, and will evaluate the methods for providing long-term care of those who develop dementia. The assessment of long-term care will include discussion of various options: home care, day care, respite care, adoptive care, and domiciliary care, in addition to nursing home care. Particular attention will be focused on evaluating methods for optimizing care of demented patients in the various settings (including Federal and private responsibilities for financing and assuring quality care.) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Chairman Senate Special Committee on Aging Hon. John Heinz, Chairman Hon. Larry Pressler Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs Hon. Alan K. Simpson, Chairman

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Senate Committee on Finance Hon. Bob Dole, Chairman Hon. Bill Bradley 36 House Comittee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon. Larry Winn, Jr., Ranking Minority Member Hon. Albert Gore, Jr. Hon. Joe Skeen House Select Committee on Aging Hon. Edward R. Roybal, Chairman Project Director: Robert Cook-Deegan, 6-2034 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: July 1986 Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES AND THE OFFICE Increasing use of word processing systems, desktop computers, optical disk filing systems, teleconferencing, and other ~orms of office automation are likely to significantly affect public and private sector office environments. Widespread utilization and integration of information and communications technologies are likely to change the organization of the office, the structure of office occupations (and their inherent skill levels), the location of work, and the numbers of individuals employed. OTA will identify plausible trends in office automation over the next decade, examine the social and economic impacts of its use and analyze the effects of Federal policy options on the further development and use of office technologies in the public and private sectors. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Chairman House Committee on Education and Labor Hon. Carl D. Perkins, Chairman Hon. George Miller, Chairman, Subcommittee on Labor Standards House Committee on Small Business Hon. Berkley Bedell, Chairman, Subcommittee on General Oversight and the Economy Project Director: Vary Coates, 6-2240 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: July 1985 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY: CONGRESSIONAL OVERSIGHT AND CIVIL LIBERTIES --The U.S. government, already a major user of

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37 computerized information systems and other information technology, is at the threshold of a major transition to the next generation of this technology. For example, the number of federal computer systems is expected to increase from about 18,000 in 1983 to between 300,000 and one million in 1990. Current government use of these technologies has already generated questions about their impacts on government; the dramatically increased future use will further affect government administration, provision of public information, civil liberties, and the balance of power among branches and levels of government. This study will evaluate computer and communication technologies relevant to government information systems, profile current and evolving federal systems, and assess the impacts and policy implications of such systems in key areas of concern to Congress. The study will determine, to the extent possible, where and how computerized systems are fundamentally changing the administrative process and/or outstripping the existing framework of legal and procedural safeguards to civil liberties and mechanisms for congressional and judicial oversight. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Hon. William V. Roth, Chairman House Committee on the Judiciary Hon. Robert W. Kastenmeier, Chairman, Subcommittee on Courts, Civil Liberties, and the Administration of Justice Project Director: Fred Wood, 6-2244 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: September 1985 INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS IN AN AGE OF ELECTRONICS AND INFORMATION This assessment will identify and analyze trends in the development of the new information technologies to determine those areas where there might be gaps in the laws and practices of intellectual property; it will examine how their widespread deployment and use might alter the value of information and thus affect the future creation, production, distribution, use of, and access to information and knowledge based products; and it will identify and evaluate policy strategies -legal, technological, economic, and social -for addressing intellectual property issues in an age of electronics. Examples of some of the issue areas that might be included for analysis are: 1) the legal and institutional issues resulting from rapid technological change; 2) the technological issues that result from the impact that intellectual property law might have on technology; 3) socio-political issues arising from the public/private aspects of information; 4) the economic issues arising from the enhanced value of information and information services; 5) the international issues resulting from the increased flow and value of information across national boundaries; and 6) the ethical issues arising from the conflict between public laws and private practices.

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38 -The report should be especially useful to Congress as it seeks to adapt existing intellectual property law, and to create new laws, to provide for the new technologies. Requesters: Senate Committee on the Judiciary Hon. Charles McC. Mathias, Chairman, Subcommittee on Patents, Copyrights, and Trademarks House Committee on the Judiciary Hon. Peter Rodino, Chairman Hon. Hamilton Fish, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Robert W. Kastenmeier, Chairman, Subcommittee on Courts, Civil Liberties, and the Administration of Justice Hon. Carlos Moorhead, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Courts, Civil Liberties, and the Administration of Justice Project Director: Linda Garcia, 6-2245 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: September 1985 TECHNOLOGY FOR DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS RESOURCES IN HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTS Most of the U.S. offshore oil and gas resources are expected to be found in: (1) Alaska, and (2) deepwater of the continental shelf and in the Gulf of Mexico Oceanic Basin. Up to onehalf of the undiscovered recoverable hydrocarbons are expected to lie in deepwater between 668 to 12,888 feet. Operating in arctic and sub arctic regions requires technologies to withstand ice conditions and high winds and waves. As the petroleum industry moves into hostile environments, questions arise regarding the adequacy of Federal procedures to deal with oil and gas development. These questions include: (1) are procedures adequate for encouraging high-risk development by the industry; (2) can environmental and personnel safety be ensured; (3) is there sufficient information on resource and engineering factors, ice movement and wave and wind conditions to safely administer Federal offshore leasing; (4) are there technological factors that may affect the pace of offshore leasing; (5) are there economic factors that will affect the rate of resource development; and (6) are changes needed in the statutes and regulations to encourage industry's development of offshore resources and protect the environment. Requesters: House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs Hon. Morris K. Udall, Chairman Hon. Jim Weaver, Chairman, Subcommittee on Mining, Forest Management, and Bonneville Power Administration House Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries Hon. Walter B. Jones, Chairman Hon. Norman D'Amours, Chairman, Subcommittee on Oceanography Hon.Carroll Hubbard, Jr., Chairman, Subcommittee on Panama Canal/Outer Continental Shelf Project Director: James Curlin, 6-2077 Projected D~livery Date to TAB: February 1985

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-39 -TECHNOLOGIES FOR DISPOSING OF WASTE IN THE OCEAN -Due to lower disposal costs relative to other alternatives, and increasing public opposition to land-based disposal alternatives, it is likely that pressure to use the ocean for waste disposal will continue-or increase. As coastal areas of the United States have become more developed, the amounts of sewage sludge generated from municipal treatment plants and of dredged _material from ports and harbors have increased. Disposal of both waste types, especially sewage sludge, at ocean dumpsites has been controversial but also has increased markedly in the last few decades. There also have been proposals to use the oceans for the disposal of different.types of nuclear waste and for at-sea incineration of hazardous synthetic organics such as PCB's. The assessment will examine the different technologies used or proposed for disposal of different types of waste in the ocean. Primary emphasis will be placed on sewage sludge, dredged material, low-and high-level radioactive waste, and some industrial wastes that are compatible with ocean disposal. The study will address policy issues related to the role of the oceans within an overall waste management context, alternative strategies for managing.these wastes in coastal areas, the pretreatment of wastes prior to disposal, and research and development priorities. The environmental, economic, international, and institutional implications of different policy options will be evaluated. Requesters: House Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries Hon. Walter B. Jones, Chairman Hon. Edwin B. Forsythe, then Ranking Minority Member Hon. Mario Biaggi, Chairman, Subcommittee on Merchant Marine Hon. Norman D'Amours, Chairman, Subcommittee on Oceanography House Committee on Public Works and Transporation Hon. James J. Howard, Chairman Hon. Gene Snyder, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Robert A. Roe, Chairman, Subcommittee on Water Resources Hon. Arlan Stangeland, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Water Resources Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Bob Packwood, Chairman Hon. Ernest Hollings, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Bill Barnard, 6-2045 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: October 1986 HAZARDOUS MATERIALS TRANSPORTATION: TECHNOLOGY ISSUES --Transportation of hazardous materials and wastes has been of increasing concern for some time. The most commonly reported estimate of the quantity of hazardous commodities shipped annually is 4 billion tons; however, there is no reliable documentation to support this estimate. Given the large estimates of the quantities shipped, these numbers are not large. However, greater damage does occasionally occur. Therefore, a primary

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40 government concern is to ensure public and environmental safety while facilitating movement of these commodities vital to the nation's economy. This assessment is directed toward two fundamental issues: 1) the adequacy of containers used in the transportation of hazardous materials; and 2) the adequacy of the information systems for tracking commodity transport to permit adequate planning. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Bob Packwood, Chairman Hon. Ernest F. Hollings, Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Government Operations Hon. Cardiss Collins, Chairwoman, Subcommittee on Government Activities and Transportation Project Director: Edith Page, 6-2214 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: March 1986 SPECIAL RESPONSES AN ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF ENFORCEMENT AND REPEAL OF SECTION 3 OF THE FEDERAL COAL LEASING AMENDMENTS ACT OF 1976 (Staff ~emorandum) --This special response will update and expand work done for OTA's report, Assessment of Development and Production Potential of Federal Coal Leases. Information acquired during OTA's extensive analysis and data collection efforts for the mandated coal leasing assessment will provide the basis for the requested analysis. Under Section 3 of the Federal Coal Leasing Amendments Act of 1976, after August 4, 1986, the Secretary of the Interior may not issue any lease under the Mineral Leasing Act of 1920 to a person or business that holds a federal coal lease and has held that lease for more than ten years without producing commercial quantities of coal from it. Enactment of Section 3 was prompted by Congressional concern over the large number of nonproducing leases and over possible speculation in Federal coal leases. OTA estimates that leaseholders of about half of the federal coal leases issued before 1976 might be subject to a section 3 penalty in 1986 or shortly thereafter. Because of the possible widespread impacts of this provision, OTA was asked to assess the effects of both enforcement and repeal of section 3. OTA will examine: (1) how many leases and lessees might be subject to a nonproduction penalty, and why; (2) options and constraints for lessees in avoiding section 3 penalties; (3) economic impacts on federal mineral leasing revenues and potential for windfall gains to leaseholders, and (4) effects on competition for coal leases and other federal mineral leases. The study will also discuss how alternatives, such as use of advance royalties, might be used to promote timely production from federal coal leases. OTA will hold a workshop for

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41 -industry, government, and other interest groups to obtain their views on the effects of enforcement and repeal and to solicit their suggestions for alternative pro4uction incentives. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs Hon. Morris K. Udall, Chairman Hon. Jim Weaver, Chairman, Subcommittee on Mining, Forest Management, and Bonneville Power Administration Project Director: Karen Larsen, 6-2212 AFRICA TOMORROW: ISSUES IN TECHNOLOGY, AGRICULTURE, AND U.S. FOREIGN AID -Sub-Saharan Africa faces severe food problems. This is the only region in the world where per capita food production is declining, despite large increases in foreign aid. The U.S. Agency for International Development alone spends more than $350 million in several programs. Agricultural output is the single most important determinant of economic growth here and its decline underlies problems such as widespread poverty, unemployment, and growing debts. Rapid population growth, other demographic changes, and loss of renewable resources exacerbate these conditions. Experience has shown that technical assistance to the smallest African farmers is key to increasing food production. Few programs have been developed for this group, however, or for the different conditions farmers will face in the future. For example, today's new agricultural technologies will not have substantial effects on food production for 10 to 15 years. The population of Africa is expected to increase from 520 to 850 million people during this period and urbanization will be pronounced. This OTA project will examine demographic trends in Africa over the next 15 years as a basis for understanding future food needs, especially as they relate to the smallest and poorest farmers. It will provide a preliminary analysis of 1) sustainable technologies and technical assistance programs to meet these changing needs, 2) the characteristics of successful technology transfer programs, 3) the extent to which U.S.-funded agricultural assistance exhibits such characteristics, and 4) the potential role of nongovernmental groups. In addition, this special response will help OTA identify key issues and prepare for a follow-on technology a,ssessment. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Select Committee on Hunger Hon. Mickey Leland, Chairman Hon. Marge Roukema, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Phyllis Windle, 6-2265

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42 -TECHNOLOGIES TO BENEFIT AGRICULTURE AND WILDLIFE --Agricultural technologies such as cultivation, grazing, and tree harvest profoundly affect the quality and quantity of wildlife habitat, and thus wildlife itself. These effects are not necessarily detrimental to wildlife. Technologies exist that simultaneously enhance wildlife habitat and increase agricultural production, allowing each to benefit the other. The application of these technologies would enhance the complementarity of agriculture and wildlife. A workshop will be held to identify examples of technologies that will maintain wildlife while maintaining or increasing economic benefits associated with different agricultural land uses. Constraints and opportunities for the use of these technologies will be examined. In addition, OTA will analyze the Farm Bill to identify opportunities where changes can be made to foster the development and adoption of such technologies ~or the benefit of both agriculture and wildlife. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Hon. Roger Jepsen, Chairman, and Hon. Howell Heflin, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Conservation, Forestry, and Environment Project Director: Susan Shen, 6-2256 NURSE PRACTITIONERS: COST AND PAYMENT STATUS (Background Paper) --This study will analyze the extent to which various Federal health care programs and private industry insurance plans provide for the reimbursement of practitioners as independent providers. It will pay special attention to certified nurse-midwives and also the extent to which credible studies have determined the cost-effectiveness and quality of nurse practitioner and nurse~midwife services. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Appropriations Hon. Mark Hatfield, Chairman Hon. Daniel K. Inouye Project Director: Gloria Ruby, 6-2070 REVIEW OF THE PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE RESPONSE TO AIDS --This Technical Memorandum will be a broad overview of the way the Federal government has responded to the current AIDS crisis. The memorandum. will emphasize events and plans developed since the discovery of the agent that causes AIDS.

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43 -Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. Henry Waxman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment House Committee on Government Operations Hon. Ted Weiss, Chairman, Subcommittee on Intergovernmental Relations and Human Resources Project Director: Larry Miike, 6-2070 MENTAL HEALTH SERVICES FOR CHILDREN (Background Paper) --This study will assess the approximate mix of mental health services for more than 3 million children and adolescents believed to be at risk. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Appropriations Hon. Mark Hatfield, Chairman Hon. Daniel Inouye Project Director: Denise Dougherty, 6-2070 PROSPECTIVE PAYMENT ASSESSMENT COMMISSION -The Commission is an independent advisory committee mandated under the "Social Security Amendments of I 983" (Public Law 98-21, Section 601) which reforms the Medicare program payment method. Under the Statute, the OTA Director was charged with selecting the Commission members and completed this task in November 1983. OTA is also required to report annually to Congress on the functioning and progress of the Commission. A fact sheet on the Commission can be found on the last two pages of this section. Project Director: Anne Burns, 6-2070 PACIFIC BASIN TELECOMMUNICATIONS WORKSHOP --Some important international telecommunication issues will be explored in the context of policy for the Pacific Basin region. A staff paper will explore policy implications in such areas as facility planning and the effects of new satellite and cable services on international communications. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. Timothy Wirth, Chairman, Subcommittee on Telecommunications, Consumer Protection, and Finance Project Directbr: Chuck Wilk, 6-2252

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44 u.s./u.s.s.R. COOPERATION IN SPACE -This Technical Memorandum will explore potential areas of cooperation in space, advantages and disadvantages of working together in those areas, history of cooperation, and methods of cooperation as well as areas of research. On September 13, the document produced by the May 8 workshop of U.S. space scientists was released at a hearing of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. The Chairman of the workshop, Professor Bernard Burke of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, also provided testimony as part of a panel of experts. Areas of potential value for cooperation as well as suggestions for approaching projects of increasing complexity and interaction were identified. The Technical Memorandum itself will be released by the requesters after the adjournment of Congress. In addition to space sciece, OTA has included analysis of space applications cooperation, cooperation in other scientific areas, and some work on the questions of technology transfer. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Hon. Charles Mee. Mathias Hon. Claiborne Pell Hon. Spark Matsunaga Project Director: Nancy Naismith, 6-2214 THE STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF STANDARDIZED TESTS AS MEASUREMENT TOOLS FOR FEDERAL EDUCATION POLICY (Technical Memorandum) --Fiscal constraints and public concern about the quality of education have led recently to increased emphasis on the use of standardized tests in public elementary and secondary schools, including the widespread introduction of minimum competency tests. While responsibility for the administration of such testing rests mainly with state and local agencies, the Executive Branch and Congress are now considering greater reliance on tests to: 1) set performance standards for students and teachers; 2) increase accountability for public education programs; and 3) increase the number of educational indicators which can be compared among schools, states, and between the U.S. and other nations. This Technical Memorandum will explore the use of student tests to achieve these policy objectives. It will describe current testing policies (mainly state and Federal), and assess the strengths and weaknesses of major test technologies as policy tools. Empirical and technical analysis will be limited to match current Congressional interests.

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-45 -Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Chairman Hon. Edward Kennedy, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Richard Thoreson, 6-2263 REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT FOR SCIENCE/ DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACTS/ SCIENCE AS INVESTMENT (Technical Memoranda) --The House Committee on Science and Technology established a bipartisan Science Policy Task Force in June 1984, to initiate a comprehensive review of national science policy issues. This review, prompted by the changing nature of Federally supported science and the changing environment in which science endeavors occur, draws primarily upon the resources of the Congressional support agencies. The Chairman of the Committee and the Task Force, Don Fuqua, and the Committee's Ranking Minority Member and Vice-Chairman of the Task Force, Larry Winn, Jr. (retired), requested OTA to assist the Committee's effort by preparing three Technical Memoranda on specific science policy issues. The three studies composing this special response focus on the regulatory environment for science, demographic influences on science, and the economics of research. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon. Larry Winn, Jr., Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Nancy Naismith, 6-2214

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52 II. E. New Assessments Approved During the Quarter Technical Memoranda o The Strengths and Weaknesses of Standardized Tests As Measurement Tools for Federal Education Policy (December 10, 1984) o Science Policy Task Force Memoranda (December 10, 1984): Government Funding of Research as an Investment The Regulatory Environment for Science Demographics: Human Resources for Science Change in Scope o Federal Government Information Technology: Congressional Oversight and Civil Liberties (December 10, 1984) Special Response o An Analysis of the Effects of Enforcement and Repeal of Section 3 of the Federal Coal Leasing Amendments Act of 1976 (Staff Memorandum) (December 10, 1984)

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Publication Briefs

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OTA REPORT BRIEF October 1984 Federal Policies ,and the Medical Devices Industry The Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) regula tion of marketing and the Medicare program's payment policies have had the most influence of all Federal health policies on the development and use of medical devices. Such products range from simple, inexpen sive items, such as bandages and stethoscopes, to sophisticated, expensive equipment, such as computed tomography ( CT) scanners. The Medical Device Amendments of 1976 signifi cantly expanded FDA's authority to regulate medical devices for safety and efficacy. Evidence indicates that, despite regulation, medical device companies have continued to be profitable and innovative, and new companies are entering the field. But major portions of the Medical Device Amendments have not been im plemented by FDA and some may not be workable. As implemented so far, the regulatory process has posed the greatest problem for small manufacturers of contact lenses. The purpose of the Medical Device Amendments is to protect the public from unsafe and ineffective devices. However, information &om FOA's voluntary reporting system has been ipadequate for assessing the huards associated with devices and the law's effec tiveness in consumer protection. The medical devices industry has grown from less than $1 billion in 1958 to more than $17 billion in 1983. Medicare a"d other health insurance programs have st,imulated growth in the medical devices industry by providing a secure and growing market for health care products. B~tween 1960 and 1982, the share of total medical expenditures paid by third parties rose from 4S to almost 70 percent. As a result of payment policies, the market has rewarded te~hnological sophistication but not cost consciousness and has fostered devices used in acute care rather than in prevention and rehabilitation. Medicare's new method of paying hospitals prospec; tively on the basis of diagnosis related groups (DRGs) / has the potential to make hospitals, and hence device manufacturers, more cost conscious. Medicare's DRG hospital payment method also raises some concerns: assurance of quality when providers have financial in centives to minimize the use of devices and possible inefficiencies if device use shifts to locations less finan cially constrained than hospitals. Congress has several options to improve regulation of medical devices. One option is to retain the basic framework and intent of the 1976 law and provide guidance to FDA on priorities in its implementation. A second option is to narrow the scope of the law to reflect FDA's current priorities in implemention. A third approach is to exclude certain types of devices from regulation on the basis of their potential risk. Congressional options in the payment area include encouraging Medicare to develop payment methods that are more neutral with respect to providers' deci sions to use devices and that encourage physicians to select the least costly setting of use. A broader approach would be to encourage Medicare to set overall limits on the amount to be paid for care and to permit providers and patients to determine the use of specific devices and other technologies within that limit. In addition to policies pertaining to payment for health care and regulation of marketing, OTA' s report examines Federal policies pertaining to support for research and development, regulation of medical pro viders, and the development and procurement of devices for veterans. Policy options are provided in each of these areas. Copies of the OT A report, "Federal Policies and the Med ical Devices Industry," are available from the U.S. Govern ment Printing Office. The GPO stock number is 052-00300965-0; the price is $7. 00. Copies of the report for congres-sional use are available by calling 4-8996. Summaries of reports are aoailable at no charge from the Office of Tech nology Assessment. The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress whose basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OTA, U.S. Congress, Washington, DC 20510. Phone: 202/224-8996. John H. Gibbons, Director.

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OTA REPORT BRIEF October 1984 Protecting the Nation's Groundwater From Contamination Contaminants are being found in the groundwater of every State and are being detected with increasing frequency. Although the quality of only a small por tion of the Nation's total groundwater resource may now be impaired, the potential risks of this contamina tion are significant. Many substances being found in groundwater are linked to human health hazards including cancers and damage to the liver, kidney, and central nervous system. These substances can also have serious en vironmental, social, and economic impacts. Adverse effects can be expected to increase because demands for groundwater and the likelihood of exposure to con taminants are growing. Groundwater is now used for drinking by about one-half of the Nation's population; supplies many industrial, agricultural, and domestic requirements; and recharges streams and lakes. Despite increased Federal and State efforts in recent years, our ability to protect groundwater against con tamination is limited. For example, there is no explicit national legislative mandate to protect groundwater quality. In addition, laws and programs vary in the ways they address groundwater; responsible institu tions are not coordinated; and programs to protect groundwater and surface water are not integrated. If groundwater quality is to be better protected, laws and programs must be broadened to include sources of contamination, contaminants, and users of ground water not now covered. Most programs now focus on contamination from "point" sources, especially land fills and other activities associated with hazardous wastes (as defined by Federal law). Not generally covered are non-point sources (e.g., pesticide and fer tilizer applications) and sources associated with non hazardous wastes (e.g., residential disposal) and non waste products (e.g., leaks and spills from storage tanks). Also, over 200 individual substances have been detected in groundwater, but mandatory Federal water quality standards have been established for only 18 of them. And existing programs are primarily con cerned with protecting public drinking water supplies; at least 11 million rural households-as much as 20 percent of the Nation's population-rely on private drinking water wells. Adequate and sustained Federal support to the States is also required to protect groundwater quality and will involve a balancing among activities to detect, correct, and prevent contamination. This support must be flexible enough to respond both to the site-specific nature of contamination problems and to variations among the States' priorities and capabilities. Federal support could include funding, technical assistance, and research and development. At present, no Federal program earmarks funds for groundwater. As a result, all water quality programs are competing for State grants, some of which have recently been reduced or eliminated. And because groundwater protection activities are expensive, funds a.re needed by the States for both program develop ment and implementation. The kinds of technical assistance that Congress may want to consider include: 1) Federal support for train ing programs to provide an adequate supply of tech nical personnel; 2) development of criteria and/ or guidelines to ensure that detection, correction, and prevention activities are technically sound; and 3) ef ficient information exchange both to provide the States with information that they require (e.g., about health impacts) and to enable the States to benefit from each other's experiences with protection programs. Key areas for research and development include the toxicology of individual contaminants and of their mixtures; hydrogeologic investigations in fractured rock; the systematic and efficient analysis of water quality samples; chemical and biological transforma tions of substances in the subsurface; the prospects for treating contaminated groundwater; and options for prevention. Copies of the OTA report, "Protecting the Nation's Groundwater From Contamination. are available from the U.S. Government Printing Office. The GPO stock number is 052-003-00966-8; the price is $7.50. Copies of the report for congressional use are available by calling 4-8996. Sum maries of reports are available at no charge from the Office of Technology Assessment. The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress whose basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OTA, U.S. Congress, Washington, DC 20510. Phone: 202/224-8996. John H. Gibbons, Director.

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OTA REPORT BRIEF November 1984 Civilian Space Stations and the U.S. Future in Space After 25 years of experience, the United States has the capability to succeed in virtually any civilian space venture it chooses. The Nation is now poised to make a major decision on the future direction of its publicly funded civilian space program: whether or not-and how-to proceed with the acquisition of a "space sta tion." Such a decision can be made only in the con text of nationally agreed upon long-term goals. Al though there are important reasons for acquiring advanced space infrastructure elements, the lack of clearly defined goals argues against committing at this time to the specific "space station" concept proposed by NASA, the related time-scale, or the currently sug gested method of funding. Without a clear consensus on goals, the "space sta tion" program could become an end in itself, rather than a means to achieve objectively important program goals. The National Commission on Space, created by the 98th Congress, could initiate and spon sor the broad national debate necessary for gaining acceptance of clearly formulated, long-range goals and specific objectives designed to address them. OT A suggests some broad goals as a starting place for discussion, for example: reduction of the unit cost of space activities, direct involvement of the public, increased international cooperation and collaboration, and broad exploration of the solar system and the universe. Specific objectives to address these larger goals might include a global natural hazard warning serv ice; a lunar settlement; medical studies of potential di rect benefit to the public; direct investigation of asteroids; large numbers of the public visiting space each year; and a global direct audio broadcasting serv ice. All could be attained within the next decade or two, and within currently anticipated appropriations. There is no such thing as "the" space station, and NASA's proposal is only one alternative in a wide range of options. These range from modest, low-cost extensions of current capabilities to ensembles of space station elements more sophisticated, capable, and cost ly than NASA is now suggesting. NASA's "space station" would be of a broadly gen eral-purpose nature, to be used to support over 100 conceptual uses. Few of the proposed activities have been sharply defined or have gained wide acceptance as important objectives of the space program. The best defended are the conduct of life and materials sciences experiments and satellite servicing. OT A also examined opportunities for reducing the unit cost of space assets and activities, the importance and opportunities involved in greatly enlarging the role of the private sector, and the possibility of different roles for foreign nations in cooperative work. All these issues require attention if the commitment of dollars, technology, and professional manpower likely to be requested for a "space station" is to be fully justified. However, traditional NASA management practices, internal needs, and historical roles inhibit such a thor ough reexamination of these issues. NASA should place relatively less emphasis on accomplishing itself those things that the. private sector or other friendly nations can do, including production of much of the technology and facilities envisioned for the "space station.If Rather, NASA should pursue cutting-edge technology and undertake exploration and discovery that only it can do. Some policy options for congressional consideration include: 1. agree, in principle, with NASA's proposal, ac cepting its $8 billion and 7-to 8-year estimate; 2. ask NASA to present estimates of costs, sched ules, and procurement strategies for providing specific major space services, and select elements and strategies from these; 3. decide that obtaining any large amount of new long-term, in-space infrastructure is premature; or 4. simply approve an average annual expenditure rate for acquisition of any in-space infrastructure and let NASA select the elements, acquisition schedules, and procurement strategies based on relative cost and value. Copies of the OT A report, "Civilian Space Stations and the U.S. Future in Space," are available from the U.S. Gov ernment Printing Office. The GPO stock number is 052-00300969-2: the price is $7. 50. Copies of the report for congres sional use are available by calling 4-8996. Summaries of reports are available at no charge from the Office of Technology Assessment. The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress whose basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OTA, U.S. Congress, Washington, DC 20510. Phone; 202/224-8996. John H. Gibbons, Director.

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Selected News Clips on OT A Publications and Activities The following is a representative sample (a little more than 3 percent of the clippings received during the quarter. These clippings refer to some 28 OTA pub lications. Members of Congress participated in the public release of 3 of the 11 publications issued this quarter. Completed Assessments: Civilian Space Stations and the U.S. Future in Space Protecting the Nation's Groundwater From Contamination Federal Policies and the Medical Devices Industry Technology Transfer to the Middle East U.S. Vulnerability to an Oil Import Curtailment: The Oil Replacement Capability Effects of Information Technology on Financil Services Systems Environmental Protection and the Federal Coal leasing Program Wood Use: U.S. Competitiveness and Technology Technologies to Sustain Tropical Forest Resources Technology and Aging in America (Summary Published) International Cooperation and Competition in Civilian Space Activities (Summary Published) Technical Memoranda: Scientific Validity of Polygraph Testing: A Research Review and Evaluation Salyut: Soviet Steps Toward Permanent Human Presence in Space Background Papers: Directed Energy Missile Defense in Space Human Gene Therapy Update of Federal Activities Regarding the Use of Pneumococcal Vaccine Case Studies: Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Imaging Technology The Contact lens Industry The Market for Wheelchairs The Boston Elbow Ongoing Work: Prospective Payment Assessment Commission Strategic Command, Control, Communications, and Intelligence Systems Alternatives to Animal Use in Testing, Research, and Education Technology, Public Policy, and the Changing Structure of American Agriculture Federal Government Information Technology: Congressional Oversight and c;ivil Liberties OTA's Work in General

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Congress Study Says ~urrent Plans Are Not Justifiable By PHILIP M. BOFFEY 5pec1a1111 n.e ,.._ v11r1: 11mia :WASHINGTON,Nov.13-Thespace l ; agency's current plans for an $8 billion space station are not Justlfled on scientific, economic or military pounds and al'e not apt t9 produce the best facility, a Congressional study asserted today .. I : 1be Congressional Office of Tecb bology Aslessment said .tbat "a per-suasive case can be made" for putting some structures 1nto orbit. but at found : no compelling reason for obtaining all : tfiat the National Aeronautics and Space Administration bas In mind. ... Because the nation does not have '. ~y formulated long-raage gqa1s aljd objectives for its civilian space ac tj:rities," the study said; proceew11ag : tcnealia the present NASA space tion concept is not likely to nsult In the facility most appropriate for advanc: big U.S. interests Into tbe quar. : ter-century of' the Space !,,ge ... -;nie ftnd1ngs -of the two-year study ,;rere aet forth in a 234-pap report; '. !'~vilian Space Stations and the U.S. Future In Space," released at a news conference here today. :i,.f_ i 'l ~ ., l -~ -,; Narrow Group or PUumen CJted : ; Inae report said current conc:epts for a:~t1y ~am,ed station :to .be ',\:. f>ut in space in tbei early 1980'sbad beelf. ; iftveloPed by a oanow pip~of aclmiD,:, latrators, scientists: and,engi.....,... rather t11an by t11e broad public. : The driving force bas &een NASA, wbidt the study said bad Its own inter--nal reasons for pursuing~ large,. bigb-tecbnology program, namely :a desire to Its engineers occupied and its budset high. Tbe space agency, : -~ tum, luls aolicited Ideas flom aero spacecompanlesUd wdftndty&l'QUPlil ;that are closely aligDed ~th the : ,agency as to what a pee station "might be used for. nae result, the study said, bas been a .: !Christmas-tree pn:iposal" in whidt ~ASA seems to be planning a ~' : =that could support more than 100 ......... :1 of space activity with little attempt to define those activities well or deter-mine whidt are most Important. .. miere is no necessity for obtaining an ; ; .'.of this particular a.nay soon," the re-: fort concluded. Wi1Uam J.. O'Domlell, a NASA ... said tbat both the Prest-: :dent and Congress bad determined that .. -( space station should be the .. next )Dajor steppiqstoae ill space, but he -8llkf he was not prepared to respond to '. 'the assertion tbat NASA might build an : ~~te space station._ :.:~Thomas F. Rogen, director of the :Gongressiooal study, 5'id a "dd case : ,cjm be made" for putting structures In -ce to support experb:pents in the life : -4iences and matertals acteaces and :..-j;an perform maintenance work OD -~. : "f.,.81Jt tbe0 report found "no compellina, Gbjective" case for acc:epdng the costs, :'.timetable or full array of space faclli ties under consideration :
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=1='1-, :1iJ1! ;11,u :i,Pt:1;?:;; i;!i''t Ui1i: iili1Jiil'l,1'f --, n1r ;. ; t,I fU1th h.tfH ild =t! ind hlull !i,lsf Euals-5 d. ls I; .tsll n {Jl f lfjPJS,t !fUllf -~ ""CS~ r ': 11 tip1 '!. O\l -e,1111 .. ns:f i t !iii~11I ifaJ,al en. :: Ii 1'11,,11 I s liI J!i, a!l,,. i. 1 1 !; fE! 1111 E -i:, f 1;,t1i ii 11 if~~ .s. Q r:11 -i lsfi i! n) : thleHh hlf.h Sl .. fl~. :a:Ja ~;1,,, ... !li :isz__ ~. e ...... i 1:1' .-. o R 4111 en 'a tl! "' Et. :;; i:!'aa '"I 1a~l~1tj: ~ 1Ji';IsJ. Ii igf ~i_ ;4-_ { 8-2,~~ ,I.I !"' ... f -i~1&:1 i: ~; 1 1' '~-" ", I IQ V -~,;:,,

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RADIO lV REPORTS, INC. 4701 WILLARD AVENUE. CHEVY CHASE, MARYLAND 20815 (301) 656-4068 FOR OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT ABC World News Tonight STATION WJLA-TV ABC Network DAlE November 13, 1984 7:00 P.M. cnv Washington, D.C. SUBJECT Space Station not Justified PETER JENNINGS: Not all is good news for NASA today. There's a Congressional study critical of NASA's current plan to build a space station. The report says that NASA's idea is only one alternative in a wide range of options. The report says there is no immediate justification for the cost, the timetable, or most of the physical structures in the current space station plan. CBS Evening News STATION WDVM-TV CBS Network DAlE November 13, 1984 7:00 P.M. 01Y Washington, D.C. SUBJECT Space Station Not Justified DAN RATHER: As the shuttle orbits above, a two-year Congressional study concluded today that NASA's proposed $8 billion space station cannot be justified on scientific, economic, or military grounds. The Office of Technology Assessment also suggests that the American public have a greater role in determining long-range NASA goals. OFFICES IN: WASHINGTON D.C. NEW YORK LOS ANGELES CHICAGO DETROIT AND OTHER PRINCIPAL CITIES Matetiol SUPPiied bv Radio Tl/ Reports, Ire. mav be used ro, file and reference P
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RADIO lV REPORTS, INC. 4701 WILLARD AVENUE, CHEW CHASE. MARYLAND 20815 OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT ABC News DATE November 13, 1984 5:00 P.M. SUBJECT Space Station (301) 656-4068 STATION CITY WMAL Radio ABC Network Washington, D.C. BOB SCHMIDT: Some Congressional investigators who specialize in science are asking pointed questions about th-e next big leap President Reagan wants the space program to take. Here's a report from ABC's Vic Ratner. VIC RATNER: Do we really need a permanent space station in orbit? And if so, why? And when? Those are the kinds of questions Dr. Thomas Rogers of the Office of Technology Assessment thinks you and I ought to be discussing right now. Dr. Rogers' Congressional study said it's important that: THOMAS ROGERS: The general public play a much broader and active role in the articulation of program policies. RATNER: President Reagan has proposed building a space station before 1990 at a cost of about $8 billion. OFFICES IN: WASHINGTON D.C. NEW YORK LOS ANGELES CHICAGO DETROIT AND OTHER PRINCIPAL CITIES _., It t be ~uced SOid o, publicly demonslloted o, exhibited. Molerlol supplied by Radio IV Reports. Inc. may be used lo< file and relerence putp0S8S may no ,.....,~

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RADIO lV REPORTS, INC. 4701 WILLARD AVENUE. CHEVY CHASE. MARYLAND 20815 ( 301 ) 656-4068 OFFICE OF TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT PROGRAM NBC Nightly News STATION WR C T V NBC Network DATE November 14, 1984 7:00 P.M. CllY Washington, D.C. SUBJECT OTA Study TOM BROKAW: John Chancellor is here for his commentary now, and tonight he's talking about what's right with the space program. JOHN CHANCELLOR: There's a study out this week that says that NASA should ask John Q. Public before it commits itself to expensive projects in space. The study comes from the Office of technology Assessment, an arm of the Congress. It says the government can no longer justify big-money ventures in space that don't concern or interest the public. NASA's annual outlays are a bit less than seven billion. The study says, for most of us, seven billion a year is a great deal of money. Well, sure. But most of us aren't the Federal Government, which this year will spend about $845 billion. NASA's share of that is well under one percent. And what's this about asking the public what it wants done in space? The public doesn't know. The truth about participatory democracy these days is that the public can't participate in a lot of things because the world has become just too complicated. We send people to the Congress and pay them about 70 thousand a year to do that kind of thinking. And the Congress thinks NASA is terrific. One reason for NASA's success is that it does not ignore the mood of the Congress or the public. Example: Brave astronauts with the right stuff are not as salable as they once were, so NASA has switched to capitalism. OFFICES IN WASHINGTON D.C. NEW YORK LOS ANGELES CHICAGO DETROIT AND OTHER PRINCIPAL CITIES fvkltorKJI supplied Oy Rooo rv Reports. Inc mo"' be used fol tile and referef'!Co purposes only It may not be r&t>rOOucG>
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2 The shuttle trips now look as though they've been ordered by the Daddy Warbucks strictly-for-profit Space Development Corporation. Example: Jake Garn, the Senator in charge of NASA's appropriations, has been chosen for a ride in space. NASA may be one of the newer federal agencies, but it wasn't born yesterday. Besides, NASA's work is one of the few things the government does that makes us feel good. Isn't that worth less than one percent of what they spend in Washington?

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' I NEWARK.NJ NEWARK STARLEDGER D. 424,224 SAT. 393,594 NOj11J~~4 i .. .. rsao .. ,anel .41;: --,7;~--9 .. P. I' .'$t.~:~i:;~ \ '. .... l .,' t1't,'.:J!,J -~-', QtJ~ : < oeiav.. U" : I .1 I. IGIIVIIII .--,,-.,,)!"'"'---.,.,,--,.,,-,,,--.-. p ~'-~!&r'' : ,1_,i'.-~~!~ !l"~M~ "!,I''! ..... ,....., ~), _,-_ ~~$1 ~,:fjtg'~~~se~--J: u_-~f ~~}j:_ iuF,J~toma!tioniii.iisl ~ E a m;~ a h d .. d .. th. bbons ...... 9 need rge au new progr m .' fl .J. I '. .,, ,re)faaed; )eslerday the past year: ,~gers a . I. ,at '. JoJui B. Gi 111)'8 is DI, begun immediately .. the stud'/ sasays., 1;. 'A,,,. 'i...f11 ,:"" 'lde. moatofttiesctentif~ex~,c~-: .. toeommit"atthistlme .. to NASAs ... '.~l' ,.,. 'itat=don't r~ pla_.~~J~r thespa~e,~tlon. selleduleorf-,scheme. The O!ernmentsboul~nt settle, ,_u, Wlon' 'iliein_ lsougbt. P.8 .. ~IJ!ed.. in~ _s~tlQD. -~. ,i* ,,mJaauary. ~resld.tt_ .Reagan on any pfan before deci.dlng what it N~ll~l!!ll A ,. -ties~; .. ce -.a .coat a _fourth of. what-;i,~i la '_. db'ectecLN~ito devel~P. :I space sta-wants do .or where it wants to go in .... ... m~i'l:(~~*'_~r~ -1 __ .. D!,_ ._._._,: f ,_ 1 .1;1. ;(:_;.1,, ,,tlQnJhat,CQU)d IM:.in Ofl>lt. IJi the early Spa~ OVef the next 2$ ,,rs Or more, Jit. '"' ~ti*/" :' -~elop-.... :The ~port Is .Uk,ely -~ a 1990s. Congress liter pprov~ $150 the report says. _: ":''1 : 7_, ~, .: :~ acqlli-, key arl'lDl_ ent for those w~ OP.pose. .million .for the. agency. to begm early OT A suggests that the new Nation. ~tetelements-";:&:n~ develo~t. of a~ staUoq 8' f~y,or deMgn eoncept& '. al C!>inmlssion on Space create4 this 11111' ~-}l,'\Uj;ic,. malil cheaper,_ less ambifious alterna_. m,~. : .. ,1 _' Al. though,tbe project.a first-year year bv Congress could take the lead in >11. .... ':f~_,,_ .... _JQ. -~_ .. _.~11iere-' ., The i~". year 1_ was_~i:ed. f!llldlng.was approye_d qulcl by~-a "national debate on the future direc-' ,; acmowleilm .< -~-hi ;, ; by Jloers ~-*'* OTA stag,1~-,,;INIUt-:opponepts and SU rs alike tioll of US. space activiUes." .< : H ~Ro'n ~"'1i( .:--:-, 1 "because _With the help advlsoijJMlnel expec~ resistance as t ~ annual re' : .. di tfinot~ 'formu-~f sc;ien~tsand eng1llfJel'8 f~ arou,nd)qaests J-.'888,to $1;bill1on and more As a starting place for the d~~. Qea ,toiig!iaii"V.Jand :ljecuves the cou_ ntry. The p~nel incbcle4_ ... :~ch .. ~-. _ad ~-. urea on Congress_ to cut the OTA suggests ~veral "broad goals. m, ; li'rJtij!lvm.17. \ijtlvities ro-. noted spa~ authonUes as. James A. ,-,~ budget deftell ,,, .--,, eluding reduction of unit _cost ofspace -,tp~,J,~-presem k~A v_ u, .ol the a"4 as-,; u;n Amqng -the, ~ve ~Uonale activities, .~rect 1a_,o_ lve~ent. of. the ,. ,,, _,..;,;tkui;iiar-.;F is noflltel to trGnofnY: at tlie Ulil~ty llited ~y-OTA for a less ~~'!8 sta~ DUbllc, ~reaset.l bitemaUonal pera-. ,_ ,,,, .;~ ~r1-.. 1 .ou~a. ~Carl an. dll'.8e'9r of >: tio1ta1' ita potential lor life sctences lion and collaboration, and exploraUon !!t'!~,.::.n~~ :CorQeU-Yoiv~-~ty':at!boratort~ifor ex~riments and satellite servicing. of the solar sys_, tem and the um_ verse. i~t of th s ~~ry St~es. '::'l'!aefaclJily mighhiso. be used to store N~ also should look.at reducing ~Mt-" q _,_ .;; .. ,,~1 e pace The study was req~ted In l~Z duel.and supplfes..lnl~te. ']ages to .costs by altering Its traditional pro,. 't~,. ; ,, .. -.~ '' ions al-by ke con onalcomm1~t tbe nt(M.)11 or elsewllere, and low the ~urement procedures to spu\' reater 'rea:.M,, .. ,!~ O"'A's .,, = sent io con~en .-ID?,P!ce trial, of new lnstru nts and mvolvement-and bivestrnent-~y for f "' ~- "i(. i~'.vql,, 0 Y -~ 1 along wltli copies of the report,. enU-, adlvitles. .. eign governments and private Interests, -l.~o:: ~ .,:11r;,~i~g-Ills t~tl-; tied "Civllian __ ~pace Stations ancJ the .''A persuas~~e case can also be according to the report. ,,..,,.,..._,j ~-;-, .. ,.," ,. ',., ,,

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RADIO CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM ', ,1:, I '\/OH I 1-ic I/ I[.) AV/. NU/ I IVING:0 ;l)N 'VI W .!/Hl,i 0 'c) t
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J ) ) I, :s s. ,n .. ~AJ Planned Space Station Unjustified, Report Says Nation Must.Co~ider Aims, Hill _Told ",ssociated Preas O'Donnell said the agency would The kind of space station NASA have no comment until i(has stud-is planning cannot be justified on ied th e report. scientific, economic or military The report characterizes the nagrounds, according to a study pretion's goals in spaceas shortsighted 1 and narrow, reflecting the views .s pared for the congressiona commitonly of the science and technology ,t tees that fOntrol._;th e ~ountry's communities and not of the general ,. space program. public, which foots the bills. Not just Congress, but the entire It asks, "How can the U.S. people THOMAS F. ROGERS ,, nation, ought to consider what the nd f "important activities" overlooked country. wants to do in the second a government justi Y, today, con tinuing to make such truly great quarter
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I I I m,r ([ lttrinn-1Lti'ltw JACKSON. MISS. '.) S9.S55 ~! 1i \/ 1 4 1 () Q 4 1\ V 1 J v Bu~~s /NASA space station proposal blasted Gamiel1 News Service WASHINGTON The National Aeronautics and Space Administration may have "bet the company" on its proposed maMed space station for the 1990s at the expense of the agen cy's other research activities, the congressional Office of T!!(!hnology ~meot said Tuesday. The non-partisan OT A, completing a two-year study of the space station, urged Congress to delay funding pending fur ther studies. "Persuasive cases have not been made for all the things the government wants to do," said Thomas F. Rogers, director of the OT A study. NASA is seeking a $2 billion annual budget to develop the space station for a variety of research and commercial en deavors. OTA said the NASA plan lacks "clearly formulated long range goals and objectives," which made it nearly impossible to "judge objectively whether or not most of the (space sta tion) elements proposed to date ... are truly appropriate." The report also said NASA's plan was too heavily laden with scientific goals, and failed to consider more practical "human objectives" in space. like medical research, civilian moon travel and worldwide warning systems for natural haz ards, It raised an "ethical concern of whether or not scientists. engineers, and managers should be paid so very well by the public to spend additional large sums of public funds each year to do such things as take photographs of distant planets." NASA officials declined comment until they can study the report further. The report, completed at the request of four House and Senate committees, warned that the financial drain of th proposed NASA program could cripple all other explorator; space efforts. It proposed that NASA look more aggressively for other funding sources, including private industry and foreign nations. The report also: Dodged any recommendations on President Reagan'} so-called "star wars" defense proposal. Rogers said only that civilian and military space efforts should be "balanced." Recommended that the new National Commission or Space conduct a public assessment to define the "appropriat( character" of the new space program.

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Sp~c~:sfqtion plan .-i -. -\'!; ~,.,.....i,. :J'. \ runs .. irit.o..-criticism -. ~" ''' S REIDY . 'Sentinel c,~ en" WASHIN'QT9:N ....;:.Mall-out commltment by NASA to developa manned space station may not be the wisest allocation of resources and brainpower, concludes a two-year congressional study. In seeking to. help devise a national space 'agenda for the rest of the century, the Office of \ Technolol. Assessment said the space station .. ;wii}d s9oij6polizf! '8~'.energles of the scientific 'community and'lts available funding that other, "ppssibly m~.)mpo~t priorities could be ne;J~~ ... -,:,;~~i":_; ;,r -.. -::~_}'}_:Thfj. ,,:l~l!~~ )'~sterday, describes the contty'';'IJ.!.'ffi.t'-~~~ce ais short-sighted and t:' S&l$ ~Y renec~,the of the science and .. ~logy communiUes and not those of the ?Jseneral public. '!,. ,';-_ t~How can .the U.S. people and government -Justlty, today;-,;;continuing to make such truly :. great and continuing public expenditures on :. 'space-rela~"~~~ .. during an extended period .o(. ~8!,nationaHin.ancial stringency?" Presldent .. Beagan has made construction of a manned space station wiUun the next 10 years a national goal. Under one plan, NASA would assemble the $8 billion orbiting outpost $2 bllllon for each of tour sections with compo nents ferried up by space shuttles. The total.cost ofthe station would be many times that figgre. The Office of Technology Assessment is a !l~-pa~san support agency created by Con gress and governed by a board of six senators and six rep~ntatlves. Its mission is to analyze scientific and technological issues and to suggest policy options. The report, titled "Civilian Space Stations and the U.S. Fut~ in Space," covers 234 pages. Civilian priorities that might take prece dence over a space station, the study said, in clude additional exploration of the solar system What is $2 billion? $2 billion would: Or: $Zllilllloll .. ..,.. ... _lpllll """"""'fer ..... lhutlle .....,,,_,. ..,..,. __ fer-ot lour artivei,msurlNtlGIi NASA's ....,....i ..... atallan._ e ,........,,10,000 ..... fer 30.000 ,_.. ----child In Allllla $5,000 car e1ns111111s,_......., ---- l'aJferUllllulldfaaota -,... ... New Y"'11'1 ...... WarldT ... C.AP chart and increased cooperation among friendly space faring nations. The priorites advocated by the study would encourage more involvement by the private sec. tor and more participation by the public. Those priorities might come at the expense of NASA, whose spokesmen said they were preparing an official response to the study. A news release that accompanied the study stated that the office had "concluded that while there are important reasons for acquiring ad vanced space capabilities (for a space station), there is no necessity for committing at this time to the specific technical concept proposed by NASA, the related time-scale or the currently suggested method of funding." The release stated later that NASA's pro postd space station is "only one alternative in a (See SPACE, Page A-4) /) RIVERSIDE, CA PRESS-ENTERPRISE (EVENING) 34,505 NOV 14 984 .i'!_'t(i..~-U.E'S -~ V ,~pace ... _K (From Page A-1) wi~; range of options" for a na tional space policy. The study maintains that 1984 is a critical year in space devel opment because Congress would not be compelled to reach any irrevocable decisions on funding or on setting objectives for 18 months to two years. Such a breather, the study suggested, is the ideal time to initiate a national debate to sort out priorities and to try to strike an equitable balance between the competing Interests of military and civilian objectives. Congress approved $155 mil lion this year for initial work on the space station design. In September, NASA asked private industry to bid for contracts to come up with preliminary de signs. Four "work packages" will be awarded on April 1. Final de sign and development is sched uled to begin In 1987. During a news conference to unveil the study, project director Thomas F. Rogers said, "The re port says that it's now very Important that the United States rearticulates its thoughtful and broad interests in and activities in space." The study focused its analysis on civilian objectives KNT News Wire

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lil1r iijuuhmtilr ID'imts HUNTSVILLE, ALA. D. 55,527 SAT. 48,267 SUN. 63,594 NOV 14 1984 !l!ttfREU.PS Salyut~Type Station Seen for $2 Billion By DAVE DOOLING. Times Science Editor C.,,"'2... '17 t.1ll HOUSTON'-''1 A "USA Salyut" space station could be built for about $2 billion and meet about a third of the objectives that NASA has outlined for the space station, the Qffice of Tecbnolo&Y... Assessment analysis of the space station has concluded. OTA did not recommend .specifically that such a space station be built, but used it as a point of reference with the Soviet Union's successful space station. It has been able to support crews for as long as eight months, with periodic resupply and visits by other crews, and is small enough to fit within the Space Shuttle's cargo hold. It is roughly between the NASA's Skylab and the Air Force's Manned Orbiting Laboratory ( which was designed but never built). "In summary, a 'USA Salyut' that approximates the Soviet Salyut 7 could be assembled using essentially existing or currently under development technology, i.e., Spacelab modules and a service module composed of EURECA or Leasecraft-type power and attitude controls," OTA wrote. EURECA is the European Retrievable Carrier satellite~, Leasecraft is a commercial satellite-for-hire being developed by, Fairchild Space Co. OTA based this analysis partly on a "minimum. cost" space station studied in 1982 by Marshall Space Flight Center. Such a Cl'aft "would provide sound and useful infrastructure, but would be of modest dimensions in comparison with .NASA's present aspirations. : This would be ba'sed on adding modified Spacelab modules~ the Space Platform. Among the alternatives that OTA outlined for "low-Earth orbit independently operating infrastructure" are extended-duration shuttle orbiters that would operate for 20 to 50 days with a five-man crew; and a free-flying Spacelab with a three-man crew that would operate with resupply every 60 to 90 days. NASA studied the extended-duration orbiter in the late 1970s -Marshall Space Flight Center's space platform started as a 25-kilowatt power module for such work -but dropped. the concept because it would tie up a vehicle that the agency feels is better used for hauling cargo up and down. A SO-day orbiter could be developed in five to 10 years at a cost of $1.5 billion. Another $1 billion a year would be required for 12 dedicated month-long missions.

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THE CHARLOTTE NEWS CHARLOm, NC 0. 42,552 NOV 14 1984 BV{LJfELJ.E'S :$a billion sps,~ ,~tatlQp "*ilS)to et,,.iU.fHtl~s .no:d ., ... ::>.> ,. :. g .P.. .. ... .. .. .. .. t~.1;0~~$8.iNt~ttONAt.' .. w.:~g:~:;e~!~!:1r:O inappropriate way ~o advance Uie United States's role In space and may be aimed at perpetuating the agency, a congressional advisory panel warns. Tbe Office of Technology As,essmentsiifd-,.uesaay "Uiat ar.: tttt>Ullf Jtmerlca must progress in space/there is no immediate justi fication for the cost, timetable or most of the physical structures proposed In the space station plan. "Overall, the. considered devel opment of space through the ~ed acquisition of appropriate elements of space infrastructure is a key to maintaining America's lea~ershlp in space," the congres sional panel said in a special re port. ~However, because the nation does not have clearly formulated long-range goals and objectives for its civilian space activities, proceeding to realize the present NASA 'space station' concept. is not likely to result in the facility most appropriate for advancing U.S. Interests into the second quarter-century of the Space Age." ,,.... I President ReagJ~ co~mltfed Justification for the space station the United States .to building a include the necessity of keeping habitable space station In his Stat_e up with Sovletadvances In long of th'lt Uni: !l44l'~ lut;Januaw,.;: t~nn orbit, the .need for a permaNASA has esumateit lt will cost nerit space laboratory., manu about $8 billion over the next 10 facturing f~ilities and a launch years to build one. ing platform for miisions to Mars, The agency hopes to launchthe the niOQn and asteroids. station early In the 1990s, using Another reason appears to be the space shuttle to ferry compoNASA's attempt to perpetuate nents into near-Eartb orbl\; current staffing and budget levels, But the Office of Technole>gy the report said. Assessment, which aids Congress The space agency's program, with research o~ complex and said the report, cold become an technical issues, said there is no end in itself Influencing the such thing as "the" space station. nation's civilian space program NASA's proposal is just one alfor decades rather than a way ternative in a series of options to achieve important goals. ranging from 1t10dest extensions The report suggested that a Naof current capabuttles to ensem-_ tlonal. Comqilqto~,-o_. n Space, ere hies of space station elements ated by tbeJas.! ~ngr spobsor more sophisticated and costly a broad national debate to define than NASA now suggests, the reand ensure public acceptance of .. port said. long-range space goals. The space stat\on proposed by The report said that NASA. NASA Is a general purpose unit should put less emphasis on acthat could support over I 00 PQ_teri complishing tasks tha~ should be; tial uses, few of which have been performed by. p,rlvate industry or defined, the report said. The best other nations. Instead, said the re def ended ones, said the report, port, NASA should pursue ad seem to be experiments Involving vanced technology research and life and materials, and servicing exploration and discovery -of satellites. tasks that only the agency is The report said reasons cited_ as equipped to accomplish.

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ITI ft....._,.,.. r J-J} 77/'n es: ;l/!Lj/~f llos,Anaetee .._ Study Urges Clear Goals for Space Station Plan By MARLENE CIMO NS, Times Staff Writer WASHINGTON-The National Aeronautics and Space Adminis tration needs to adopt clear, long-term goals for a civilian space station program before it proceeds with the project, a report to Con gress recommended Tuesday. Moreover, it is important that the American public-and even other countries-become more involved in the national debate over the program, according to Thomas F. Rogers, director of the two-year study by the nonpartisan Office of Technology Assessment. 'Clearer Picture' The report does not oppose the concept of placing a manrted space station in orbit within the next decade, as was directed by Presi dent Reagan in his State of the Union message last January. But it calls for NASA first to begin work on "specific space objectives to address over the next 20 to 25 years." With such objectives, the study said, the nation would have a "clearer picture" of the kind of technology and amount of time needed to build the space station, which Is estimated to cost $8 billion. Among 10 possible objectives, the report proposed a global warning system for hazardous natural disasters such as earthquakes; a transportation system from Earth to the moon; exploration of Mars and some asteroids; transmission of electrical energy, and short trips into space by private citizens. These objectives, it said, could have a "great impact" on "a broad spectrum of public, private, profes sional and international interests." "We've been spending $7.5 billion a year, every year. We can do anything we want to do," Rogers said at a news conference. "It's great. It's exciting." But. he continued, "we're miss ing large numbers of important activities by allowing all this to go on under technological 'drive' -not policy drive, economic drive, social drive, the way everything else is done in this country at that level of public expenditure." Of the suggestion that citizens be sent into space, the report said: "Only when a large number of our citizens, representative of a broad cross section of our society, begin to experience 'the space adventure' directly wilJ the space domain and space activities gradually begin to move into the mainstream of our national Interests and concerns." Rogers also urged that other nations be enlisted to join in a cooperative effort to reduce some of the costs from the space station. Data on Natural Hazards He said, for example, that a global service transmitting data on natural hazards would prove valu able to "all the world's leaders who have the need for that informa tion." While scientists from many nations study "pieces of it," he said, no one has thought to create a system that "(looks) at the world as an entity." Leon Perry, a NASA spokesman, said the agency had no "direct response" to the report but issued a statement that he described as a "reaffirmation" of existing goali for the space station. The station now is intended to repair satellites in orbit, manufacture drugs and me tallic alloys that cannot be made on Earth, conduct scientific experi ments, initiate flights to the moon and other planets and keep up with the Soviets, whose own station is already aloft. "The President has clearly de cided that the space station represents the next major steppingstone in the development, disciplining and utilization of space," the NASA statement said. NASA is working to carry out the direction of the President and the Congress to get the space station built, launched and operating, and to detelop the active participation of nations in different parts of the world, which also have a vital stake in harnessing the characteristics of space." .......

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MtDOLETOW:;, N. Y. TIMES HERi:U) RECORD D. 73,9!5 \:) :.i _:.., ..... :; t.) i-;. BUB(tEI.LE'S Are-mariri8d Space flights good policy? ~"Wrestling a satellite." EDITORIAL "Spacewalkers haul in satellite." Visions of Buck Rogers come to mind reading those headlines in Tuesday's paper. On Monday, astronauts Dale Gardner and Joe Allen had snared the wandering Palapa B2 satellite and, because a brace couldn't be clamped onto it, manually stowed and f~tened tf:te sa~ellite onto space shuttle Discovery's cargo deck. We can do nothing but marvel at the sight of an unteth ered astronaut >Zipping about in his white spacesuit, d~zzling in the unfiltered glare of the sun. Once agam, America's space technology is second to none. But a report issued by the congressional Office of Tech nology Assessment (OTA) Tuesday takes some of the luster off these achievements, an4 should give the country's science establishment pause. The non-partisan, two-year study ~ain~i~ that ~e National Aeronautics and Space Adn11n~trat1on s goals m ;.; space are short-sighted and narrow. It questions the pro priety of spel14ing billions ~f dollars of. taxpaye~' money during a period of financla:1 belt-tightening. The report points out graphically the magnitude of the money spent. The $2 billion allotted annually for space shuttle and space station development would allo~ ~ch of 30,000 families to purchase'a $70~000 house ~utrigbt; or And now, President Reagan nas maae building a space it could be used to. make a 10 per~ent down payment~. station of o~ own a national goal. 300,000 houses costing $70;000 each. >;.:! But the idea of a $8 billion space station was made Aside from the report's criticism, h~w_ ever, there seems ven more necessary because of the failure of the space to be no clear NASA plan as to America's space futpre. huttle so far to provide a cheap and reliable space That has caused NASA to_paint itset9nto !' comer. reigb~r. The ;easoning seems to be, "Now that we havej ; In the earl>: 1960s, puttin~ a man m orbit was_ nece~7 a space ferry, what do we do with it?" to take the sting out of getting beat by the Sov~et Unions~ NASA should read the OTA report, which suggests / Sputnik. Evecythlng was directed toward President John mong other things that it increase the efficiency of its Kennedy's goal of getting a_ man on the moon by the_ en,d pace flights, reduce costs, involye the public. in flights :_ of the decade, and that ac~1evement boost~ the nation s and direct their work to provide more sc1entif 1c, ecoi confidence at a time when it sorely needed it. nomic, social and political benefits. : Since then, whether influenced by the success of the NASA should start with the manned space station. An Apollo voyages to the moon, or American'_s love for the iunmanned space station could be just as effective as a / rugged individualist tackling the last fro_ntier, NASA -~as lmanned station. I been. carried away by manned space fbght. ~verythmg OT A's _suggestions will not necess~rily cramp NASA's I has beeir directed. at the spa~e shuttle, a machine whose istyle. If adopted, they will sharpen its f~us. We do not work, experience proves, can be done much more cheaply !need to leap ahead blindly into the last frontier. : and reliably by expendable un~anned i:oc.kets. -

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/.lr:AnSP/H:i: n411 v WA::H!~m!r.t!, !J~ n:.JL':' NO~ lb 1984 BUl(f:!.EJ.J..E'S .. _:: 1JTyEXPLORES ALTERNATIVES TO NASA's SPACE STATION CONCEPT There important reasons for acquiring some advanced space capabilities that could be realized _tm'6ugh a space infrastructure but there is no need for committing at this time to the specific technical space station concept proposed by NASA, the related time-scale or the currently suggested method of funding, according to a report prepared by the congressional Office of Techno}Qgy Assc::1Sment. OTA, in the report released Tuesday titled Civilian Space Stations and the U.S. Future in Space, points out that NASA's space station program could become an end in itself, influencing the nation's civilian space program for decades to come, rather than a means to achieve objectively important program goals. It maintains that there is no such thing as "the" space station and notes that NASA's proposal is only one alternative in a wide range of options from low cost extensions of current capabilities to ensembles of space station elements more sophisticated, capable and costly than those the agency is currently suggesting. The National Commission on Space, promulgated under legislation passed by Congress last year, says OTA, could initiate and sponsor a broad national debate needed to gain acceptance of well formulated long-range space goals and specific objectives designed to address them. OTA believes that Congress can make a fully-informed decision about the specific space station proposal only in the context of nationally agreed upon long-term goals and suggested the following as some broad goals as a starting place for discussion: reduction or unit cost of space activities, direct involvement of the public, increased international cooperation and collaboration, and broad exploration of the solar system and the universe. Larger Goals Specific objectives to address these larger goals could include a global nature hazard warning service, a lunar settlement, medical studies of potential direct benefit to the public, large numbers or the general public visiting space each year and a global direct audio broadcasting service. These objectives, OTA says, could be attained within the next decade or two with currently anticipated appropriations. The report also examines opportunities for reducing the unit cost of space assets and activities, opportunities afforded by enlarging the role of the private sector and the possibility of different roles for foreign cooperation. NASA should place less emphasis on accomplishing itself those things that the private sector or other friendly nations can do, including production of much of the technology and facilities envisioned for the space station and instead pursue "cutting-edge" technology, according to OTA. OTA concluded that two important activities that NASA could undertake today, and for the indefinite future, would be to reduce the unit cost to the private sector of conducting activities in space, and to ''be of assistance to them in making productive investments in space." It notes that the private sector's particular concern for cost reduction can be anticipated to result in ''lowered costs in public space activities also." ln the report, OTA said that NASA has yet to give sufficient thought to establishing "the kind of multi-national, interleaved, development and production program of the type often entered into by the Defense Department in NATO and elsewhere, and by some of our large private sector organizations and their analogs in other countries." It is not beyond imagination, OTA says, that a "major international" colloborative civilian space station prQgram could be negotiated that, among other things, could "lighten the total burden" on taxpayers by as much as $2 billion-$3 billion. "This is not the approoch to dealing with other countries on any space station program that is now being taken by NASA," OTA says. The present approach is one of asking other countries to add funds to the U.S.' estimated and anticipated commitment of $8 billion. While NASA's space station would be of a broadly general purpose nature to be used to support over 100 conceptual uses,. OTA contends that few of the proposed activities have been "sl111rply defined" nor have they gained wide acceptance as important ohjectives of the spacf' progrnm. OTA perceives the hest defended as the conduct of life HJH1 m11teri11ls seien<'P. -,xrwri111cnts 11110 snl
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OTA (Cont.) OTA
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NORFOLK. VA VIRGINIAN-PILOT n. 138,800 s. 214,865 ,.~,..., t;;;. Soaring in space /.1 1 ,/ ED!TOR!AL Inspiring pictures and words depicting the space shuttle Discovery's daring and resourceful salvage deeds contrasted this week with a report from the Congressional Office. of Technology Assessment that tossed colowateron high-flying NASA at its apogee of public appreciation. The space administration's high-fron tier goals "for advancing U.S. interests into the second quarter-century of the Space Age" are not justified on scientific, economic or military grounds, the report asserted. It asked: "How can the U.S. people and government justify, today, continuing such truly great and continuing public expendi tures on space-related matters perceived by most of our general public as lying well outside of the mainstream of their personal interests and concerns?" The answer can be found in a couple of questions for the authors of the OTA report: Where do they get the idea that most Amer icans are uninterested and unconcerned about space research? Not from public opinion polls. A Harris survey, for example, reported a year ago that 70 percent of those sampled saw positive benefits in establish ing a permanent space station, NASA's next steppingstone in space. And what are those "truly great and continuing public expenditures" the OTA report writers criticize? The $2 billion spent annually on space shuttle development is less than half of I percent of the total federal budget. And what does the nation indeed, the planet receive for that comparatively small investment? The easiest to quantify are space spinoffs like pocket. calculators, which were on the market by the time the first man, an American, walked or. t.,11' moon, a feat made possible by the numbe, crunching power of navigational computers. Now, desk-top versions store for the aver age office worker what 16,000 brain!< an remember. Meanwhile, top-of-the-line, state-of-the-art computers can perform 100 million operations a second, and in a de cade the average computer will be perform ing 8 billion operations a second. 1 Less easy to quantify are the space firsts that shuttle missions routinely achieve first woman in space, first black in space and, soon, the first teacher or congressman in space ( a sort of space race within a space race). Who can know how such symbols inspire young citizens of the world? Or who can know how modern satel lite communications benefit primitive cul tures? Surely they are among our best foreign-policy instruments. The authors of the OT A study do allow iat a solid case can be made for NASA plans. But their conclusions come off sounding like the latest screed from The Flat Earth Society. They should be reminded that President John F. Kennedy was ad vised just before the history-making .1961 blastoff of Cmdr. Alan B. Shepard Jr., the first American in space, that "manned space flight will be man's most expensive funeral." The president gambled and won. Now, we know more and gamble less and benefit more. The OT A ignores the fact that history especially space history has a trajectory all its own.

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RADIO N REPORTS, INC. 4701 WILLARD AVENUE, CHEVY CHASE, MARYLAND 20815 ( 301) 656-4068 OFFICE Of TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT PROGRAtvl Good Morning America STATION W J L A r V ABC Network DATE November 15, 1984 7:00 A.M. CITY 'tlashington, D.C. SUBJECT OTA Study DAVID HARTMAN: It's been a week of mixed blessings for the space agency, NASA. There were cheers, of course, when the a s t r on au ts on th e sh u t t 1 e d is cove r y 1 au n ch e d two s ate 11 i t es now have successfully rescued two other ones. But there has been some criticism for NASA, as well. A Congressional study says that NASA's planned $8 billion space station cannot be justified economically, scientifically, or militarily. James Beggs is the Administrator of NASA, and he's joining us from Washington this morning. You know, you had this very successful mission, with launct1 two, bring two back, and so forth. And then a report comes o.ut yesterday saying you can't justify this $8 million space station on military or scientific grounds. Wnat's your reaction to the report? JAMES BEGGS: Well, my reaction to the report is that we have studied the space station, studied future goals for NASA for a long, long time. As a matter of fact, space statians have been in our study effort for about 25 years. And we have justified them, I believe, both to the Administration --and the President is thoroughly behind the station --and to the Congress. We've gone through the first budget session in the Congress and the budget has been approved for that station. And as far as the other recommendations of the report, I find much that I could agree with. HARTMAN: How do you --how do you account for that kind of criticism, saying you can't justify that eight billion bucks for the space station, it's a Christmas-tree proposal, and that OFFICES IN WASHINGTON DC. NEW YORK LOS ANGELES CHICAGO DETROIT AND OTHER PRINCIPAL CITIES Matenoj suppbac:1 by fladK> IV Reports. Inc mov be used fOf me and ret8fence purposes only It may no, be <8P<
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2 you're not sure what you're going to do with it, and so forth? If everybody's approving it and saying it's terrific and the money's there, then why are they criticizing it? BEGGS: Well, I think that this is the same kind of critici~m that we've had over the history of our space program -that is, there always is an element that feels that the money can be better spent for other things. Suffice to say, from our point of view, the money that we've spent --I like to characterize it as invested --in space has paid back big for this country. And I t h i n k th e p u h l i c u n d e r s t a n d s th a t T h e s u p p o r t o f t t1 i s program, from the point of view of both budget and what we are doing, the activities we're conducting, has never been higher. As near as I can read the polls, well over 70 percent of the American public like what we're doing. And indeed, the most recent polls, if you read them, suggest that the American public likes the idea of a space station, as well. HARTMAN: Well, how do you proceed, then, now? do you narrow the definition of what you're going to do? change some of the plans to satisfy a report like this? I mean Do you BEGGS: Indeed, that's what we are up to. The next two years, the coming two years, we'll be engaged in what we call Phase B studies, or the conceptual studies that will lead to the design of the station. And we will be working with the industry and with the scientific community and with the other customers, the commercial customers that will be using the station, as well as folks who will be using the station for other activities, such as our foreign friends. And we'll be working with all of those people to involve them in the design of the station'so as to insure that what we come up with --that is, the final design of the station --will meet the needs of everyone who wants touse it. And it will have a very broad use, from the scientific community to the foreign community, our friends abroad, to the commercial community. And indeed, I think the communications satellite industry and other industries that have grown up around space research will take part in that design. So, we will formulate that in a two-year study effort. And everyone, including, of course, most importantly, our committees in the Congress, will have a chance to take a look at the results of those studies.

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GRAND RAPIDS, Ml PRESS o. 131,538 s. 161,485 NOV 15 Buq~Eu.rs Study .. Says Public, N ,, ii !1'.iM';'. ... ,,,,:::'l~T: ,; /"\''. ., -~et1s.:r ... o~e,t,-,,~~~ in Space ~pendi~g l:,~ Co\'\ t' . .., WASHINGTON (AP) A conspace station .. to be used to support gressional study says It's time that over 100 conceptual few of the general public, which foots the which have been sharply defined bills, had a bigger say in bow the or gained wide. ac~eptance as Im United States spends the billions of portant objectives of the space pro dollars it invests in space projects. gram." The report, published by the The report spells out the kinds of non-partisan OffJce Qt Technol~ goals the nation should set for it-~ment, says the government self: caii1io" longer justify "truly great Increase the efficiency of and continuing public expendi-space activities and reduce their tures on space-related matters" costs. that are seen by the public outside Involve the public; have scienits Interest and concerns. title, economic, social and political :-The study points outthat NASA benefits. budgets exceed $7 billion a year. Increase international cooper"For most of us, S7 billion per ation. year is a great deal of money," the "Spread life, ln a responsible repor.t says.. "Well beyond these fashion, throughout tbe' solar sys kind of considerations is the ethi tem." cal concern of whether or not sciIt suggested a number of objec entists, engineers, and managers tives. such as a global warning sys should be paid so very well by the tem of potentially hamrdous natu public to spend additional. large ral circumstances;. a sums of public funds ~ch year to transportation service from Earth do such things as take pllotograpbs to the moon and .. a modest human of'distant planets." presence" on the moon; medical The study, .. OvillaJI Space Sta studies of direct tnt~,and short I lions and the U.S. Future in visits to-space by the general pubSpace,'" was prepared for the conlie. gresslonal committees that control It does not opp6se .a space stathe country's space program. tton, per se. saying a persuastve Thomas F. Rogers, director ot case can be made for acquiring the two-year study, explained the some long-term.-tafrastructure In focus on. greater public participanear-Earth space,. some of which ti~~ would allow a human work force to We ve been spending $7.5 bilbe retained there for extended lion a year. every year; we can do periods." an?tl1,ing we want, to do," be-said. NASA reacted to the report by Its great, its exciting but saying President Reagan "has we're missing large numbers of lm portant activities by allowing all clearly decided that the space statbis to go on under tecbnologtcal Uon represent:9 the next major drive not policy drive, economic stepping stone in space. drive. social drive, the way everyReagan bas made the building of thing else is done in this country at a space station a national goal and that level of public expenditure," the space agency Is in the process be said. of deciding what such a faciUty, The kind of space station that costing about $8 billion in 1984 dolNASA is now planning cannot be lars, should include. justified on scientific, economic or "He made that decision and the military grounds and should be Congress concurredin it because viewed as "only one alternative in be foresaw the benefits that would a wide range of options," the study occur for this country and :its says. adding: friends in this next great venture," "There Is no compelling, obJecsaid William O'Donnell, speaking tive, external case" for building a for the agency.

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HIE CANTDN 'iEPOSITOIW CANTON.OM 0. 62,490 SUN. 78,800 ~ 1,,. ;"i \I :1 X 4 NASA under fire desP,ite triumph r uJqr--1 In the midst of another U.S. space triumph, a shuttle flight in which two satellites have been snagged from orbit so they can be repaired, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration is being blistered by a congressional study for pursuing goals that have little public support. Zeroing in on NASA's plans to have a manned space station in earth orbit by the early .1990s, the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment has concluded that the proposed uses for the space station cannot now be justified. The Office of Technology Assessment's complaint is with the lack of public participation in NASA planning. The report charges that NASA is being run by a narrow group of administrators, scientists and engineers whose goals include finding ways to keep NASA's annual budget fat and its engineers employed. NASA now spends about $7.5 billion per year. This sounds like NASA has primarily a public relations problem. Congress should scrutinize NASA's obj~ives before handing the agency a purse full of cash, but NASA also should be able to find a better way to convince the public that its programs are worth the risk and expense. Part of NASA's job, frankly, .is to find out what is possible and worry about applications later. For instance, who can now foresee the value ,five or 10 years from now of the weightless manufacturing techniques that NASA is now test ing? We're bullish on space flight and experimentation in space 1 because it represents a frontier in which the United States 1 has no rival in the world. We also believe that the public including the business community requires a little time to realize the advancements in earthbound technology that become available whenever a NASA engineer solves a partic ular space-fli~ht problem. We hope the Office of Techno!~gy Assessment report fires up NASA officials and causes them to do a better job of convincing the public that their programs will pay dividends to society even though those dividends are sometimes not immediately apparent.

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;-1Hrh11u111ll [inn.; Ui!;patd1 fl!CHM!WIU, 1W':i!'!li\ D 1:'!5.468 SU:'l. 225.38? NOV 2 ,: l 98 4 /l.v.tgtfA:t.Lf:S The ing the pages of this success.story so quickly ~s been l1We criticism of its objectives of.late that it's difficult to keep up with it There frj,m the citizenry to date. Too, the recent presi. a'ra~ not many superlatives left to describe. the df1tial election presented a clear choice on : df'i)its, the continual success of which may spce development: Walter Mondale, who deridsomeday cause. us to call them "routine." e4 high-tech defense as "Star Wars" during the On this, the 14th shuttle trip in less than 4. : ~paign and who as a senator voted against years, Discovery recovered two malfunctioning l the space shuttle every chance he could; and 'satellites from space, and put two new commuRonald Reagan who supported both ideas and, '.nications satellites in orbit The owners of the over-strong objections from some of his Cabinet damaged satellites stand to bene&t since the memben;, called in his 1984 State of the Union latter can now be repaired and relaunched. More ; ~ress for a permanent space station. important, the mission is yet another show of the : .1 It Is important to know that that a space shuttle's potential in the exploration of space, l, stauon cou'd house labor:atones that -ould play 'and the entire nation can expect to benefit from ., the information gained there. ( an important role in improving the nation's techUnfortunately, NASA may find it easier to :. nological and medical fkills. A study released retrieve stranded satellites in space than to get ; last month by the National Center for Policy approval on Earth for its ambitious plans. Just Analysis says space labs will enable the United days before Discovery's landing, the congres.States to produce: "space crystals" that would sional Offl.~ of_ TeguJ!_~-~~q~.re!~ ,allow supercomputers to perform billions of a scathing report on the nation's space program, computations a second, beta cells that could which. OTA insisted, was shortsighted and nar~t more than 3 million diabetics, interferon row. The report said NASA cannot justify "truly ;with the potential to help 20 million people by great and continuing public expenditures on ;lnllibiting viral development, and skin-growth space-related matters" such as a permanent pi:Oducts for another l million burn victims. manned space station which lie outside the : ... ':Tile NCPA study war:ns that this~ no time for mainstream of the general public's interest. the country to lose its commitment to the devel-OTA is not opposed to the space program ojment of space. Other countries already are itself, just critical of NASA's priorities. Rather rifoing ahead with plans for shuttles and space than the space station, said the report, the space stations of their own. Plainly the sky is no limit agency should be pushing for, among other in .the quest for knowledge. We hope U.S. govemthings, a transportation service from Earth to inent agencies won't limit it either.

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AVIATION WEl:K & SPACE TECHNOLOGY NEW YORK, tlX W. 103,500 NOV ~6 lY84 -~ 1 S~ECHNOLOGY ~) C -essional Report Attacks NASA's Justification for Station By Jay C. Lowndes Washln11ton-:-Congressional Qffice of Techn5 Assessment questions wheth~ 7'1ie'!i:auonal Aeronauilcs and Space Administration has justification for an immediate commitment by Congress lo the sit.cc station technical concept, related schedule or method of funding as pro posed by the agency. "NASA's space station program could become an end in itself, influencing the nation's civilian space program for decades to come, rather than a means to achieve o~tively imporiani program goals," according to the asses.,ment office. In a report, commissioned by the Senate Commerce, Science and Transporta tion Committee, the House Science and Technology Committee, the Senate Ap propriations Committee and the House Budget Committee, OT A said: "Only in the context of nationally agreed upon long-term goals can the Congress make a fully informed decision about the specific proposal known as space station." Permanent Facility Thomas F. Rogers, director of the assessment, said that a solid case can be made for permanent facilities in space for life sciences, materials processing and sat ellite servicing at a cost one-half to onethird as much as the initial operating capability proposed by the agency as cost ing S8 billion. Justifications are sound for allowing human activity as part of the infrastructure, Rogers said. "This need not be an all up and all out activity," he said. "You can buy infrastructure by the yard." Prior to heading the study as a consultant to the as=sment office, Rogers was a physicist and electronic communications engineer employed by Harvard University, Bell & Howell and the Air Force Cambridge Research Center. He demonstrated space relay of video signals at Massachusetts Institute of Technok,gy's Lincoln Laboratory and served as deputy director of defense research and engineering in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Current activity nn spm;e statiun in volves 412 advanced tc-chnology cont rncts and K-10 advam.:ct.f dctinition -.:ontracts the agency c.lccms nccL-s~o1ry for opc1ations in orhil hy 19'12 (AW&SI Sep!. 17. p. If>). Roger~ '-1H1 l!. 1.i. lll\"t',11111:nh in lhc prnjL'l'I h:1vt.;" hcL'11 u,t.fol, rhc hudgt:1 11f ~Jcio million a yl"ar ,, \\l..'II ,pc1H on ,111dtl-,, ,11ul th1.. 11aHn11 ha, nttl' ,1ml ,t h;11f 01 Rogers said. The U. S. already has invested 5200 billion in technology; "we have the capability to do anything we can as pire to do." The assessment office questioned as pects of the space station project plan including: Government-funded development and deployment of core hardware such as life support and power systems. "The private sector is very competent and prepared to take a more active role in space infrastruc ture," Rogers said. "If a public utility could develop the capability to deliver power in orbit, why not let them do it and let the government pay for what ii used. NASA should do the mllli difficult, far thest-out things." The report identified bi propellant engines and the reusable orbital transfer vehicle as examples of suitable advanced development for .NASA. Rogers sees no decrease in the agency's budget as the private sector takes over more and more projects. International participation as an add on to the core 58-billion initial operational capability. OT A wants international cost sharing rather than cost additions to the basic infrastructure. The three-segment Columbus module propo,o:d as Europe's participation in the space station project is to cost an additional $2 hillion (AW&ST Oct. 22, p. 97). Technology development, the agency's specialty, as principal reason for the project. "The alternatives have not been evaluated," Rogers said. "If the nation had goals, we could measure the station's capability and schedule against them." Rogers sees the National Commission on Space created by legislation enacted in July as a mechanism for public debate on national space goals. Presidential appoinlments to the commission are expected this 11,onth,._and a report is due in a year. The Office of Science and Technology Policy is 10 sub mit nalional space goal recommendations 10 the White House Senior lnteragency Group for Space within 60 Jays after re ceiving the commissions report (AW&ST Aug. 27. p. 14). '"The time has cnme for the general public 10 he involved in spa .... e," Rogers said. We're missing out if\\<..: allo" lhis 10 go on ;1 lcchnolo~ical bash mstcad of a polic.:y ha!-.i .... The a!-,~..,smt:I ullkc-('Ollductcd a poll of potc-ntial 1 1 a ... 1rudurc l1,cr, 1ha1 ~,1ahli,hcd the 10:-. 111,.'allnn for hi\. .., .. :i1.t.l...,. mah:ri.al, prot..t.'!-1 .,nu and ,al~,llik '-'..'I \'h."llll! i'lh: poll id 'llllild \0() decide what we want to do with the sta tion first." Rogers said. Civilian and military goals in space should provide for a balanced program, according to Rogers. There is only so much talenl out there," and total space funding is likely to remain constant. In creases in military expenditure could be subtracted from civilian funding, he said. "Both should be healthy." Rogers warned against jeopardizing the schedule of operational capability for pri vate and international participation. Philip P, Chandler, deputy director of the assessment, said Europe and Japan have mature capability in space. "Officials in those nations are tired of being placed in the learning mode. NASA has dis cussed with them but not seriously considered bringing them in on infrastructure. The position that they should not be given a critical element is disingenuous. They can handle it." Chandler estimates possi ble European share of infrastructure at SU billion. Multinational Effort The report said that international part ners could reduce the U.S. cost by $2-3 billion and cites the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's solicitation of international participation in maintenance and improvement of Earth remote sensing capability in space as capable of gaining half the funding for such hardware from overseas. NOAA expects that funding or contributions in kind from oth er nations would reduce the cost of maintaining a two-spacecraft polar orbiting meteorological system and insure that full global coverage such as that provided by the U. S. and shared with other nations for 20 years will continue (A W&ST May 14, 1984, p. 76). The report suggests a number of alter na1ive goals including: Global natural hazard warningEarthquakes, tsunamis, ownosphere perturbations. severe storms. environmental pollution, the carbon dioxide greenhouse elfect and volcanic effluvia were cited in the report as targets for the sensing and distribution network to probe near-Earth space. 1he planet"s almoScphere and surface as well as below the surface of the land and sea. 1.unar culoni.r.ation-A lra11._portation ,crvtl.01.!' i.:m1ld he t.'~tahli..;hct.l to a11d from !hi.! E:.1r1h._ Moon. and a mode,1 human pn:-,t:lll'l' l',lahli~hcd then. li,r "1.-1 l.'l!lllll' ,!IHI ollll'I Lll11L1I ,md 1'l't111n111h

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sible objectives include habitat construc tion and oxygen production from lunar material for lire support and propulsion, recovery of water/ice from the lunar poles and production of food on the Moon. Exploration of Mars and some aster oids--A near-term goal would be the acquisition of information and experience using space probes for future planning. "Early programs to develop and use lower cost transportation, housing and people related services in establishing low-Earth orbit and lunar residential and work places could all keep analogous Mars ob jectives specifically in mind," the report said. "Over the next 10.20 years, crewless space probes, with characteristics specifi cally reflective of our intention to have some of our men and women visit the surface of Mars early in the next century, could be sent there." Medical research----Possible subjects include hypertension, osteoporosis (a cal cium deficiency causing brittleness and loss of mass in the bone that is highly prevalent in older women), osteo-arthritis, weight control, energy metabolism, diges tive function and body fluid balance. Physiological changes experienced by as tronauts that are similar to changes asso ciated with aging are atrophied muscles, brittle bones and decreased cardiovascular and respiratory capacity. Flights by members of the publicThe report raised the possibility of estab lishing lodge/habitats in low Earth orbit for short stays in space by hundreds of persons each year conducted as a commer cial enterprise with little or no net out-of pocket cost to the government. Short-wave broadcasting--"A global system employing sophisticated and pow erful direct broadcast satellites c:ould re place most of today's individual country short-wave stations well within a decade," the report said. "Developed as an interna tional common-user system, use of its ser vices could allow broadcasters throughout the world, regardless of their size, loca tion, or political persuasion, to reach audi ences in other countries clearly and reliably, and at relatively modest cost." 1-.-., fl/AW ...... Broad availability of space-derived data-"By designing spacecraft to allow direct readout of the space signals trans mitted from them and/or by providing the ~ata promptly and generally from central collection points," users with computers at home, at work and at school could use the products of space, according to the report. One shuttle/Spacelab flight gener ated 20 million video frames, 900 frames of film and 2 trillion bits of data. "The market could well prompt the creation of service-added organizations that could prepare various educational packages with a wide variety of users in mind." Transmission of electrical energy in space--"Defense programs are now antici pated that would see at least 10 megawatts transmitted through the atmosphere and/or space via collimated and directed microwave and optical electromagnetic beams," the report said. "Use of such methods and means might allow electric ity to be distributed usefully across space. Energy sources could be located in geost~ tionary orbit and/or on the lunar surfi. --... --

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and the energy transmitted to the Earth's been NASA's responsibility to meet any surface. When such technology is reliably given national space objective by itself; in and economically in hand, it could be the future, it should be NASA's responsi used to supply electrical fuel to spacecraft bility to see that the objective is met That on voyages to and from the Moon and is, NASA should now aspire to th~ much farther," broader role of seeing that others :in ourj: Space transportation cost reduction-private sector and throughout the world The initial objective could be to reduce do much more of what it does today." D the cost per pound for transport between f'tl eftp ,.,. the Earth's surface and low Earth orbit by : an order of magnitude, according to the report. "It will cost well over $1,000/lb. in 1984 dollars to place human and equipment payloads into 200-mi.-high Earth orbit, in an era when, near the Earth's surface, they can be transported by aircraft over IO times the distance at onethousandth of this cost." Commercial/industrial space sales"One of the most important civilian space objectives now could be that of seeing that procurement of more and more of our space assets, and the conduct of more and more of our space activities become com mercialized." Global person-to-person satellite communications--Satellite applications now pending at the Federal Communications Commission are pushing for increased global competition and Earth stations that are smaller and closer to the end user, including a device called the Personal Sat ellite Phone (AW&:ST June 25, p. 181). The report estimates the total cost of accomplishing the suggested objectives at $40-60 billion over 25 years not including 10 shuttle ftights to low Earth orbit a year with the bulk of the cost occurring in the next 15 years. "If the funding previously spent on shuttle development (approximately $2 billion a year) is continued but reallocated towards the initial objectives, and if the NASA appropriation (approximately $7 billion a year) is augmented by a real growth of 1% a year, and if truly collabo rative cost-sharing international agree ments could be reached whereby other friendly countries would contribute an ad ditional amount equal to one-third .of the total, we could look forward to approxi mately $100 billion being avl}ilable," the report said. Two Objectives The report said prov1s1on of the infra structure needed to pursue two large ob jectives such as the Moon settlement and medical research could accommodate most of the needs of the others, and no government development of free-flying platforms is called for owing to the poten tial for private investment. Power requirements, at an initial capital cost of $10,000 per watt, would be on the order of 20 kw. for the infrastructure, according to the report. "NASA may well have to make certain fundamental shifts of attitude and opera tion," the report said ... ln the past, it has RA v1AT1nN" wFFI< & SPACF TECHNOLOGYINovembe

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AEROSPACE DAILY WASHINGTON DC DAILY NOV 26 1984 Bv.tf.@,(cS' ----.J ~ / ,;. .:iC,-tf OTA REPORT MAKES CASE POR SPACE STATION, BEGGS SAYS The substance of the recently released Qffi f civilian space stations and the us future ce ,& Technglggx Assessment report on space station program, according t~ NASA A~!-8\>4;;\ m J.es a "very compelling.,case" for the Beggs in a Nov 15 I tt inJS a or ames M. Beggs. programs, S:.id he finck "muc: ;rthto the cha1ri::en. of several <;ommittees that oversee NASA expressed conc~rn that the "aPP!ll'e:t =:z;~~ c:~~: ::1:%~~e~t:~~plete agreement," but execu~ anS:'d1~~i!!:!y b~:;::: t~a;~n mitiating the space station program, both "the includes the correct t 0 government have undertaken a program which same time laying the :.=nJ!o~kai:1o1:': u_ds. leader~ipf fn civili!n space activities while at the OTA th wi e range O uture national space opportunities." specific t.:C:!tca~ :~;t~ta~Tmtained that there is no need for committing at this time to the on concept proposed by NASA, the related time-scale or currently (Continued On Follow!~~) SPACE STATION (Cont.) suggested method of funding. It also held that Congress can make a fully-informed decision about the specific space station proposal only in the context of nationally agreed upon long term goals, something it said Is lacking (DAILY, Nov. 15). The development of a permanently m8Jllled space station is the "cornerstone of the President's future civilian space program and will lay the groundwork for U.S. leadership in civilian space activity in the next decade and beyond,11 Beggs said. 'l\iming to a comparison of some options for low Barth orbit independently operating infrastructure outlined in the OTA report that compares the capabilities and reasons for the various options, Beggs said, "In every important respect, including the maintenance of U.S. space leadership, I believe the case for a space station is illustrated therein," Beggs also contends in the letter that the space station capability that NASA is defining addresses elements the OTA report deemed necessary for a longer-term space infrastructure. The four elements OTA identified are a low-Barth orbit capability to assemble and check out large and sophisticated satellites and space structures; low-Barth orbit human residential and working space; a transportation staging facility, and a low-Barth orbit storage facility. Beggs said, "'lbe space station capability which we are defining addresses all of these capabilities as well as others. n Other aspects of the OTA report Begg& discusses in the letter relate to initiatives for expanded private sector and international involvement in acquiring space infrastructure. Beggs pointed to President Reagan's space policy, which includes the development of a permanently manned space station as well as objectives of expanded private sector involvement in space activities and the promotion of international cooperative activities in the national interest, He said, "We are aware of the potential advantages of such initiatives and are pursuing both objectives aggressively in the space station program." NASA's space station program office, he said, is working with its new office of commercial programs "to foster and enhance private sector involvement. We are also actively discussing meaningful participation in the program with government agencies in Europe, Japan and C&nada. n Beggs also had comments on OTA's contention that it caMot judge objectively whether the current infrastructure elements NASA is proposing are appropriate or worth their substantial cost. He pointed out that while the agency has established a "reference configuration," this is only a point of departure for contracted studies. "'Ihe actual hardware elements NASA will propose for development will be defined during the two-year study period and could vary significantly from the reference configuration; further, the specific participation by Coreign entities will also be clarified over this two-year period," As for the appropriateness of the infrastructure, Beggs said that NASA has studied space station concepts for over 20 years and believes this step "to be the logical follow-on" to the t r-H .-" .. .,.,. ... ,.,.,... nnn",,-,.c, ..:-oiA hnt thn ~tfrrt\nt it~ hiJlion p:c;tim,:,tfll rf"'Jr An

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rr.s: Nl:WS AND WORLD REPORT WASHINGTON, DC w. 2,199,340 OCT 1 1984 Bunnnte Latest Size-Up of The Race in Space Two autumn exploits heightened the competition between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. for supremacy in space. On October 2, the longest manned orbital flight in history ended when three Soviet cosmonauts who had spent nearly eight months in space returned in their Soyuz descent capsule. Thirteenth shuttle flight marks beginning of NASA's mission-a-month schedule. Three days later, the U.S. launched its 13th space shuttle, and officials plan at least one mission a month. October's shuttle carried a crew of seven-five men and two women-the most ever. The events spotlighted differences in the space race. The Soviet to and from their Salyut space stations since 1971. Giant rockets. Moscow is developing launchers that can put 400,000-pound payloads into orbit. The Saturn 5 rock et used in America's Apollo moon flights could lift 230,000 pounds. Shuttle vehicles. The U.S. Union's 237-day flight was a major step toward the goal of a permanent manned sta tion. The U.S. craft serves scientific, commercial and military purposes. ,.~ ..::....~"> ,,,r,."'fr 'fR ;; will have four shuttles by early 1985 and will make 24 flights a year by 1987. The Soviets have tested a vehicle that could carry cargo and crews to space stations. Although the Soviet space budget tops Washington's by as much as 4 billion dol lars a year, the congressional Office of Technology Assessriierit reports theu.s. ahead in space development. Here is how analysts see the competition' ; --1.\W~ ,, Commercial uses. The U.S. is far ahead. Its commu nications satellites earn 2 billion a year. Manufacture of drugs and materials in space may be worth 30 bil lion a year by the 1990s. Space weapons. Both na tions are trying to build or biting lasers that can down spy satellites and spacecraft. Space stations. The U.S. is spending 9 billion dollars to put a permanently manned station in orbit by 1992. SoCosmonauts end 237 viet cosmonauts. have gone days In space. Space exploration. U.S. 1 planetary probes ended in '\ 1977 but will resume in I 1986 with unmanned flights to Jupiter 'and the launch of a space telescopeo The Soviets flew several unmanned ships to Venus and will send instruments toward Halley's comet in 1986. 0

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GARY, IN POST TRIBUNE 0. 80,880 s. 92,988 ocr 2s 1984 BU!!(?E.U.E'S ,StUdy: Dump S'ites ,,th.re&ten ._, :. .. : /,. I lgr~,~ .. ,. ... -Witter i_;"': ". -; ,_. -l .WASHINGTON (AP) -Underground water 'supplies, the source. of drinking .waterfor half of :America's population, face a srowing, problem of chemical ,co!1~a.mination. thJlt,J.,\~)l~'1Y. 4,iis {ti_pteac;Uo every state m the nation in(I 1sexpectec;l:to grow worse, according to.a congressional reportreleased JOO,.if .. study. -~y ffi~; :ri~fi~e o-~--:J:y's:b~lb,~ Assessment, a' non-partiialrapalylrca~,agency.o coiigress;-said that while only,a,sm~ll percentage of tJOOUndwater is now impaired, the problem already 1s found in every state and the threat is enormous. This is because of the _EPA sa, .. ys huge reliance by t~e United States on groundwater -system set up more than 90 billion gaUons a .day is pumped to the to monitor surface and because of toxic leakage the natu~ of the contamination, the OT A said; is not working. Meanwhile, Environmen. tal Protection Agency offi. cials say in a draft report that its system for monitoring groundwater contamination from haz. ardous waste dumps is not working vecy well. The draft EPA report, requested by the White House Office of Management and Budget; said the agency ''has only a rough idea of the number of facilities subject to monitoring requirements" under'the 1976 Resources Conservation and Recov.,~"f.E~~;s policy of tuming th~ RCRA ~p~griim over to the )S!ates as SOOD ,as 1)0.Sible. ~8St1:8!1Ulted.-0in-; authonzmg many states tht were' 1ll~prepared to implement the program," according to tne draft report. It also said several state. hav:e. a "very lax" enforcement policy on preventing seepage of hazardous wastes into the: groundwater and that EPA "for several administrative reasons, bas (Jeclined to enforce or pursue cases involving the major performance standards." The 1976 law outlines bow waste sites are to be operated but leaves most of the enforcement to the states. "Most states have severe technical staffing problems due to insufficient fiscal resources an an inability to attract experience
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--------------------------------------~-Water threat ... from Page A 1 ) ;_j Because information from the performance, through a Freedom is not reflected in wilting trees or groundwater. Duren berger noted monitoring is required to get final of Information request. dead fish." that groundwater is the only permitsfor p~cessing or s~ori~g Fran?is Z~enig, the group's But, burenberger added, "it is water resource not specifically the wastes, the EPA report said, executive director, called the a matter of human health. We are protected by federal law. only a few hundred of the 6,500 report "a total indictment of the dealing with a resource that "The OTA study points out the known hazardous waste sites had groundwater program." supplies drinking water to oneneed for more than a patchwork obtained the licenses. Groundwater does not disperse half of this nation's population." even an improved patchwork EPA fourid tht 20 J)ercent of contamination easily or quickly, He said that 39 public wells in -of federal and state laws," :~tile sites it surveyed did not even the study noted, meaning California serving 400,000 people Durenberger said. "We are -be.ve any sampling and analysis contamination that would be had to be shut down because of lacking a national policy, a -plans; For those _that did have a diluted on the surface can remain contamination by an industial comprehensive Jegislati ve plan, 56 percent of the~ were in dangerous concentrations solvent, while 681 wells ~n mandate, to protec~ ?,Ur ijuldequate, the report said. underground. Florida were found to con tam underground water supplies. -:The final version of the EPA And groundwater cannot be pesticides. Durenberger, chairman of the report is not scheduled for cleansed except at great cost Public wells have been closed Sen ate Environment p~blication:until January. Hagan sometimes tens of millions of in 22 cities in Massachusetts, 16 subcommittee on toxic Thcimp_s~ri:'a spok,e.srpan for.the dollarsforasinglesite-ifitcan in Connecticut, 25 in substances_. s~.id he expects "a agency; said toclay that portions be cleaned at all. 'Pennsylvania and 22 in New flurry of bills on groundwater of it are being revised. but added "Groundwater pollution ls not York, he said. And 500 private protection to be introduced when _that he did not know the extent yet a fashionable issue," said wells were recently closed on Congress reconvenes next ofthe revisions. Sen. David Durenberge'r, R-Long Island, he added. January. The draft report -w:as obtained Minn., who released the Office of The OTA re ort said existin He said he hoped Congress from BPA by Environmental Technology Assessment report. t t d f 1 law an~ would enact a program to test for Safety; a Washington~based "The nation doesn't know much s a e an he.1e~a 5 contamination and to prote.ct h' h crograms W le 1mprovmg, are d d )' f group t at monitors t e agency s about 1t. Its effects are less 't d 'th b'l"t t. r te t un e~roun water supp ies rom -ft t. d b h ,: f 'd I 1m1 e m eir a 1 l y O p O C 11 t on rn orcemen pra~ ices an o v1ous t an tnose o ac1 ram. t po u 1 l t

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TV CLIPS DAT TIME NETWORK PROGRAM DATE TIME STATION LOCATION PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD I LIVINGSTON I NEW JERSEY 07039 (201} 992-6600 I (800) 631-1160 October 25, 1984 7:00-8:00 PM PBS MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour Jim Lehrer, host: ACCOUNT NUMBER 6 2 9 7 Y A scary report came from Washington today on drinking water: A two hundred and forty-four page study by the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment says chemical c-ontam:ination of underground water is getting worse and could eventually threaten the water supplies of half the nation's population. The report said neither federal nor state laws are adequate in protecting such water. The report was released by Republican Senator David Durenberger of Minnesota who predicted it will become the principle environmental concern for the rest of this decade. October 25, 1~~4 11: 00-11: 30 PM WDVM-TV(CBS) Channel Nine Washington Eyewitness News Bob Althage, anchor: Fire offic~als.have h~lted remodeling work on the Hungerford Exxon station in Rockville. They're trying to find the s~urce of_ga~olinc l~aking into a pit once used for the service stations gasoline storage tanks. Officials fear the leak cou~d contam~nate some of the area's groundwater. The Cqg_gr~_s_s.io_f!a_l OfJice of Technology Assessment is warning that the nation's groundwater is in serious jeopardy because of le~ks_from gasoline storage tanks. Groundwater supplies drinking water to half the nation's households. Video cassettes are ;,v,:,1lable on ,:,ny torm.,1 from our aff, 11111e VIDEO ,l.~ITORING SERVICES Of AMERICA, INC, for a perood of four weeks from air dote Call 212-736-2010

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RADIO CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM CATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD AVENUE I LIVINGSTON I NEW JERSEY 07039 (201) 992-6600 I (2 I 2) 227-5570 I (800) 631I 160 October 25, 1984 3:00-3:05 PM MT NBC News Mike Maus reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 6797 Y The underground supplies from which many communities draw their drinking water are not adequately protected from chemical contamination according to a srudy by the Federal Office ofJ~chnology A,ss_essment. Senator David Durenberger ... Durenberger: The OTA's study points out the need for something more than patchwork, or even improved patchwork of federal and state laws. In this country we lack a national policy; we lack a comprehensive legislative mandate to protect underground water supplies. Maus: In fact, Durenberger, a Republican from Minnesota, says groundwater is the nation's only water resource that is not adequately protected by federal law. October 25, 1984 9:00-9:05 AM MT CBS News Christopher Glen reporting: CBS News, I'm Christopher, Glenn. Increasing contamination of the nation's underground water supplies makes it likely that the rates of cancer, liver and kidney disease, and other health problems will rise. That's the gist of a report from the Congressional _Q_ffic;~_.9_:(__ __ Technology _AssessmenJ: out today, released by Minnesota Senator Dave Durenberger. Durenberger: All of these, the solid waste, the toxic waste, the chemical underground storage tanks, all of these sources of pollutants are there to so-called prove the lot of mankind through chemistry, and the folk that have had the value of that improvement are going to have to expend some resources via taxation, in some cases to clean up these resource contaminants. Glen: The report says that groundwater contamination has been found in every state, and is on the increase.

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RADIO CLIPS C)ATE nME NETWORK PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD AVENUE I LIVINGSTON I NEW JERSEY07039 (201) 992-6600 I (212) 227-5570 I (800) 631-1160 October 25, 1984 5:00-5:05 PM MT ABC Direction News Marsha Saulter reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 6297 Y The top story is about the water we drink. A new study shows chemical contamination of underground water supplies is going to be a long-term problem affecting the supplies of half the nation's population. A report by the Csmgres~.A~mc1,l __ Q~ti9_~_ of Technol9gy__~s_;se..~_sm~_!'lt says every state in the nation is affected and the problem is getting ~orse. Minnesota Senator David Durenberger, a Republican, says groundwater contamination is going to be the principle environmental concern for the rest of this decade. Dur.Emberger: You can't see this problem when it comes out in your drinking water for half the people in the country. You can't see it in the aquifers themselves because they're all underground. So not being able to see the problem the politicians of this country, who have to allocate resources to its solution, are ducking the problem. Saulter: Durenberger says groundwater contamination isn't a fashionable issue yet, but he says it's a matter of human health that is going to require action.

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TV CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD I LIVINGSTON I NEW JERSEY 07039 (201) 992-6600 I (800) 63f-1 f60 October 25, 1984 8:00-9:00 PM MT Cable News Network CNN Evening News Bernard Shaw, anchor: ACCOUNT NUMBER 6297 Y Turning on the kitchen faucet for a glass of water--it's a reflex action by so many Americans, but now we may have to think twice before taking that drink of water. The reasoncontaminants are seeping into the groundwater, increas ing the risks of cancer and other illnesses. Sissy Baker reports a new study prepared for Congress concludes the problem is getting worse and that no part of our country has been spared~ Baker: About one half of the U.S. population depends on ground water as its source of drinking water. A report, published by the Office of Technology Assessment, concludes groundwater contamination has been found in all fifty states. Paula Stone directed the non-partisan Congressional study. Stone: I think the important message of th~s report is that it is not a pessimistic situation, but it is an urgent one. While it's generally believed that only a small portion of the nation's groundwater is now affected, no matter how small this portion may be, the potential risks of it are significant. Further additional pressures ar.e being placed on the groundwater resource, and with these pressures, the likelihood of exposure and potential risks also increase. Baker: The report says many of the contaminants found in groundwater pose potential health hazards, including various forms of cancer and damage to the central nervous system. It adds, there is evidence contaminated water causes liver and kidney damage. The contamination comes from such things as hazardous waste sites and landfills. Pollution seeps into the ground and eventually reaches the underground water supply. Farm related products, such as pesticides and fertilizers, can foul the water also. Residential disposal and leaks and spills from storage tanks can also be a culprit. The report concludes that state and federal laws are not adequately protecting groundwater supplies. For Video cassettes a,e available in any format from our affiliate VIDEO MONITORING saMCES Of AMERICA, INC, for a penod of IOI.If weeks from air date Call 212-736-2010

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TV CLIPS 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD I LIVINGSTON I NEW JERSEY 07039 (201) 992-6600 I (8001631-1160 instance, of more than two hundred substances that are fourrl in groundwater, only eighteen are currently covered by federal testing standards. David Durenberger (Senator, Republican, Minnesota): The OTA study, which we are releasing today, points out the need for something more than patchwork or even improved patchwork of federal and state laws. In this country, we lack a national policy. We lack a comprehensive legislation mandate to protect underground water supplies. Baker: The Environmental Protection Agency is working on a similar report. It concludes that key programs established by the government to monitor and fight contamination problems aren't working,and adds, something needs to be done soon to get underground water pollution under control. Sissy Baker, CNN, Washington.

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ALBUOUEROUE1 N.M. TRIBUNE D. 45,000 OCT 25 1984 Bu_~ _,~--(!ti q:g e't be Io w: f ri;,~;f ~7s'l 'r:::'mrt 9;:~;~ater ~AStbGTON (UPI) -Cancer, liver and the information that is available is sufficient ...__..,,. __ ... kidney damag~ and other health proble~s "Public health concerns "to justify nat~onal action to protect are likely to mcrease because of growmg groundwater quality." contamjilatio~ of underground water suparise because some conAt the federal level, OT A said, there are at plies,a:t;<>ngressionaHepQrtsu~gestedt~day. taminants are linked to least 1_6 statutes relat~~ to .~undw!,lter The repQrt.by.ithe congressional Office of protection but "no explicit national leg1slaTecbnology Assessment said feaeral and cancers, liver and kidney tive mandate" to protect it. stale laws do n~t,adequatai:ly protect damage and damage to Of about 200 substances found in groundwagroundwater against contammat1on by h I ter, only 18 are currently covered by federal chemical and other hazardous wastes. t e centra nervous syswater quality standard~ the report said. Th,e st:udy,wa~:~~-~oSfay by ~en; Dave tem II the report said. OTA said groundwater contamina~ion Durenberger, R-Minri:, chairman of the Sen' comes not only from hazardous waste sites, ate toxic substances and environmental over-----------------but also from sources such as septic tanks, sight subcommittee. landfills, pesticides, fertilizers and leaks Alsopresenttoreportonthestudy'sfinding cancers, hver and kidney damage and}amfrom storage tanks and pipelines. was OTA Project D:ector Paula Stone. age to t~e central nervous system, the While existing federal and state programs The report, notil)g that about half the U.S. report said. are aimed at protecting public drinking water population is dependent dn" groundwater for But the study also sa1~ there ~ere _added supplies, the report said about 11 million drinking water, said contaiination is on the uncertainties because informati?n is not rural households are dependent on private inc~ and has.bee114eteci~ in every state currently ava_llable on the _health impacts of wells that are not monitored. often near hea~y-~pulated areas. .. ,, so!Pe contammants found m gr_oundwater. Existing progr~s, it ~d, should be Altbough OTA ,said 'only a small portiOn E~sure can occ~r unkno~gly ~cause broadened and a national policy developed to of the total groundwater supply is believed to even if groundwater 1s contammat~. _it ~Y deal with groundwater problems. be con~ted now, the potential effects. be odorless, colorless and tasteless, tt sat~. "A major function of the federal govern are "significant and warrant national atten"Exposure can occur ?Ve_r many years an~ m ment would be to provide adequate and tlon." many way~ -,,bY dnnkmg, eatmg, bathing sustained support to the states for detecting, "Public health concerns arise because at).d b~athmg. correcting and preventing groundwater consome contaminants are individually linked to Despite the uncertamties, the report said, tamination," it said. r '.

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Jt:J)-z-b/d4-hl'~Tl)A 7tw,eS (j-~ 3A BRIEFLY / Capital Water supply not pure, says study Sen. Dave Durenberger, R-Minn., warned yest-,r day that underground water supplies are being con taminated by hazardous chemicals. He said he will seek legislation in the next Congress to prevent the problem. Sen. Durenberger, chairman of the Senate Toxic Substances and Environmental Oversight Subcommit tee, made the pledge when he released a congres sional study that indicates groundwater is being contaminated by the seepage of chemical and oth-,r hazardous wastes. The 240-page report of the congressional Office of Tuchnology Assessment warns that growing contami nation of groundwater is increasing the risk of can cer, liver and kidney damage, damage to the central nervous system, and eye and skin irritation. 2 studies call water programs inadequate By caro1 Stevens USA TODAY Federal programs don't adequately protect the USA's underground water from pollu tion, say two studies released Thursday, but states that depend heavily on groundwater are taking protective steps. Half the population depends on groundwater for drinking water -about 90 billion gal lons a day. The rest depend on rtvers, lakes and reservoirs. A report by Congress' omce of Technology Assessment says groundwater contamination detected in every state is raising the risk of cancer and other serious illnesses. And an Environmental Pro tection Agency draft report says federal programs to moni tor groundwater contamination aren't working. But in Florida, With 92 per. cent of Us drinking water from groundwater, "We're pretty progressive," says the state De partment of Environmental Regulation's Kathy Cavanaugh. Officials are developing a computer data bank charting groundwater problems stateWide. A 1983 law sets strict standards to protect groundwater from leaking haZardous waste landfills and underground fuel storage tanks. Sen. Dave Durenberger, RMinn., said be will can for fed eral groundwater protective legislation next year. Elsewhere: In California, leaking toxic solvents from tanks in Silicon Valley prompted a 1983 law requiring owners of underground tanks to monitor existing tanks for leakage and install double walled tanks at new facilities. Eight states have stricter groundwater testing standards than the federal government:. New York, Virginia, Maryland. Montana, New Jersey, Missouri. New Mexico and Wyomtna.

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i!ln el1rr11L'Jlllrl ii:iml'! ,fll!(VEPORT, lA ,, ..,, 11;; ~utt 1 n.O'W\ 1r ~, \'l84 : / 0 .1 fl@,~ Study: Pollution threatening water supplies Bv WILLIAM KROI\IIOLM The Associated Press WASHINGTON Chemical con tamination of underground water sup plies has closed more than 1,000 water wells. affects every stale in the nation ,, nd. over the long run. threatens the water supplies of half the nation's population, a new study said Thursuay. The report by the congressional Of fice of Te~IJn9lQU.1\SSJ:Wnent saia' the problem, a hidden and gradual pol lution that seldom makes headlines, Is bad and gcttinc worse because state and federal laws and programs do not adequately protect underground water supplies. Sen. David Durenberger, R-Minn., who released the report, said he believes groundwater contamination "will be the principal environmental concern for the rest of this decade." "Groundwater pollution is not yet a fashionable Issue," he said. "The na-lion doesn't know much about it. Its e(. feclS are less obvious than those of acid rain. It is not rerteded in willln& trees or dead fish." But, Durenberger added. "it is a matter of human health. We are deal ing with a resource that supplies drinking water lo one-bait ol this na lion's population." The OT A report adds to a growing file ol studies indicating that groundwater pollution is fast becoming one of lhc mos! Important pol lution threats facing the United States. Early this month, the House Gov ernment Operations Committee re leased a study concluding that groundwater is among the most v11I nerable to contamination of ;ill natu, rat resources. and that "significant portions of it are being damaged and its usefulness destroyed" by man made pollution. Rep. Mike Synar. D-Okla., chairman of the Government Operations en vironment subcommittee. said then that the solution lo a coming water crisis "may be more elusive and ex pensive than the energy crisis." And the Environmental Protection Agency, in a draft report scheduled for release early next year. says states are failing in their responsibility ~o ensure that toxic waste dumps are monitored for groundwater con tamination, The draft report, obtained Thurs day, says EPA's desire to delegate monitoring responsibilities to the states "bu resulted in authorizing many states that were Ill-prepared to implement the program." But the new, 244-page report by OT A, a non-partisan analytical arm ol Congress, provides perhaps the most comprehensive summary of the prot,.. }em and of the challenge of dealing with It. The resources affected are lhe buge underground water reservoirs. called aquifers, that underlk! much of .the 11:ountry and which now provide more than 90 billion gallc,ns or water a day to surrace users. More than hall the nation depends on croundwater for its drinking waler, iocluding more than 80 percent of rural families. But !hos~ aquifers are increasingly becoming contaminated, Durenberger said In releasing the re port. vdth ~omc cases of contamina. lion now reported in every Slate in the nation. In the San Gabriel Valley of Cali fornia, 39 public wells serving 400,000 people had to be shut down because ol contamination by trichlorethylene, an industrial solvent that causes cancer and aflects the liver. kidneys and ner vous system. In florida, Durenberger said, 681 wells were found lo contain the pesticide ethylene di bromide, a potent carcinogen. State officials in Tai lahassee told The A:;sociated Press on Thursday that the list has since ex panded to 724, and residents have been advised not to drink water lrom those wells. i Public wells bavc been closed In ?2 <"ities in Massachusetts, 16 in Con n<'clicut, 2~ in Penn~ylvania and 22 in New York, Durenberger said. Some ~00 private wells w<>re recently closed on Long Island, aw 150 In Minnesota. One 1983 study identified 2,820 wells nationwide 1hat have been dosed or affected hy contamination. he said. The Cont esslonal Research Service. in an car r report, said more than UOO priva public and Industrial wells have been closed or damag ed because of contamination. Despite those figures, OTA said it believed only a small portion ol the na lion's total underground waler sup plies are contaminated perhaps I to 2 percent. But ii added that detailed ~stimatcs ol the extent of pollution "are not now, and probably never will be. available: That is because groundwater, flow ing only a few feet a )'ear through porous rock, sand or gravel, does not disperse pollutants quickly. Thus. monitoring wells can miss a toxic "plume" of pollulion by a few feet, showing pure water when an aquifer in fact is being contaminated. When pollution is discovered, there is little that can be done, OT A said. Corrective actions generally are limited to containing the pollution, such as by building underground walls around the contamlnanl, or pumping the water lo the surface, purifying it and then re-injecting il. The options are expensive, OTA said, sometimes rUMing to tens of millions of dollars per site. .. U groundwater quality is lo be bet ler protected, programs must be de veloped and implemented to detect, correct and prevent contamination." the OT A said. "Efforts must be broad ened lo include the sources of con tamination, contaminanl.5 and users ol groundwater not now. covered." Such programs would be COP lrovel'$ial polilically, whatever the merits, because the range of activities that would have to be controlled goes far beyond the obvious toxic waste dumps and industrial discharges. Agriculture contributes to the pol lution, through the use of pesticides, and farmers might be told what they can use on their fields and when. Septic tanks contribute. too. The Izaak Walton League. an environmen tal group that lobbies on waler issues, says some 19 million septic tanks dis charge about 3.~ billion gallons of wastewater into the earth each day. Underground storage tanks at the neighborhood gas station also are part of the pr,oblem. EPA has estimated that 11 million gallons of gasoline a year may be leaking from as many as 100,000 corroded storage tanks. Besides the issue of regulating everyday activity. groundwater protection plans also have been op posed in the past by some western states, who (ear federal legislation in the area will affect state laws govern ing water rights. A groundwater protection plan was approved earlier this year by the !louse as part ol its reauthorization of the Safe Drinking Water Act. But the bill died in the Senate because of op position to the groundwater plan by the Reagan administration. Durenberger. who opposed the House. groundwater plan lor (ear it would draw a veto ol the entire bill. said he hoped ihe administration would support a groundwater protec tion plan in Congress next year.

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The Federal Triangle Chemicals Taint Ground Water In Every State Underground water supplies, the source of drinking water for half the American population, face a grow ing problem of chemical ~tamination that has spread to every state and is expected to grow worse, iccontinJ to a study by the Offlee of Technology Aue,ameat released yesterday. The study said that although only a small percentage of ground water supplies are impaired, the threat is enormous. Meanwhile, the laviromneatal Protection A1ency said in a draft report that its system for monitor ing ground-water contamination from hazardous waste dumps is not working very well. The draft EPA report, requested by the Office of Management aad Budpt, said tlie agency "bas only a rough idea of the number of facilities subject to monitoring requirements under the 1976 Resources Conservation and Recovery Act. '"EPA's palicy of turning the RCRA program over to the states as soon as possible has resulted in authorizing many states that were ill-prepared to implement the program: the draft report said. It also said that several states have a "very lax" enforcement policy on preventing seepage of hazardous wastes into ground water and that the EPA, "for sevenl ad ministntive reasons, has declined to enforce or pursue cases involving the major &>eri9nnance standards." The 1976 law outlines how waste sites are to be opented but leaves most enforcement to the states.

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SAN JOSE MEflCURY-NEWS SAN JOSE1 CA D. 290,1u9 01.T 2n 1984 Contamination --\ of ground water railed growing peri) Starr and Wire Reports The chemical contamination of underground w!ter supplies, already the leading environmental concern in the South Bay, is quickly earning that same reputa tion throughout the nation, accord ing to a new congressional study. Contaminated ground water has closed more than 1,000 water wells, affects every state in the nation and, over the long run, threatens the water supplies of half the nation's population, according to the report by the con gressional Office of Technology Assessment. The report describes chemical contamination of ground water as a hidden and gradual pollution that seldom makes headlines, that is bad and getting worse because state and federal laws and programs do not adequately protect underground water supplies. The report's authors said they believe that only a small portion of the nation's total underground water supplies are contaminated perhaps 1 percent to 2 percent. But they added that detailed esti mates of the extent of pollution "are not now, and probably never will be, available." That is because ground water, flowing only a few feet a year through porous rock, sand or gravel, does not disperse pollutants quickly. Thus, monitoring wells can miss a toxic "plume" of pollu tion by a few feet. showing pure water when an aquifer in fact is being contaminated. Sen. David Durenberger, R-Minn., who released the report, said he believes ground water con tamination "will be the principal environmental concern for the rest of this decade." Ground water pollution has had no trouble making headlines in the Bay Area, where almost 100 under ground tanks have been found to be leaking chemicals into ground water supplies. In Santa Clara County alone, state officials have identified 73 leaking underground storage tanks. Those same officials have esti mated that as many as 1,200 more leaking underground tanks may be discovered. In most cases, the chemicals are contaminating underground water supplies, known as aquifers, that are close to the surface and are not used as drinking water supplies. The Office of Technology Assess ment's latest report on ground water pollution was a likely follow to a study it released in April that concluded that the Environmental Protection Agency's rules for mon itoring and controlling hazardous wastes are inadequate to protect underground water supplies. William Sanjour, an EPA offi cial who helped the congressional I researchers prepare the report,' said when it was released, "Ground water is being contaminated because the regulations to protect it are largely cosmetic." Early this month, the House Government Operations Committee released a study concluding that ground water is among the most vulnerable to contamination of all natural resources, and that "significant portions of it are being damaged and its usefulness destroyed" by man-made pollution. Rep. Mike Synar, D-0kla., chairman of the Govern'ment Operations environment subcom mittee, said then that the solution to a coming water crisis "may be more elusive and expensive than the energy crisis." And the EPA, in a draft report scheduled for release early next year, contends that federal and state attempts to control ground water pollution have been all but stopped by bureaucratic red tape, sloppy testing procedures and lax law enforcement. --~-

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THE CINCINNATI POST CINCINNATI, OH D.135,585 OCT 26 1984 ~BJ, .....----t Groundwater -y. -. strategy criticized By Jomes W. Brosnan Sa/ppHfowtlrd Staff Reporter WASHINGTON -Protecting the nation's groundwater will be the "principal environmental concern for the rest of the dec ade," Sen. David Durenberger, R-Mlnn., said T-hursday ln releasing a new congressional study of the problem. The report by the Office of Technolo~ Assessmenj. bactts up crlUcs n he environmental move~ent who charge Congress and federal and state bureucrats with moving too slowly to protect underground water sources, which supply half the (' nation's drinking water. Durenberger himself stalled a House-passed extension of amendments to the Safe Drink Ing Water Act that would have targeted groundwater protec tion for the first time for federal funds, $35 mllllon. But he said he did so In ord.er to pass next year a more comprehensive measure aimed at setting out a national policy for groundwater. Durenberger also was critical of EPA's current groundwater strategy, which he said would sa.crlftce some underground aquifers to contamination. Part of the problem with protectlng groundwater Is "that nobody can see it," unlike the damage ca.used to tree leaves from acid rain, said Durenberger. The OTA study found that groundwater contamination has occurred ln every state and Is being detected with Increas ing frequency. Although only a small portlon-1 percent to 2 percent-of the groundwater supply may now be contaminated, the potential health effects of the contamination are significant because coritamlnatlon Is often near heavily populated areas. l" ,-_. -1

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LEWISlON. 1JiAINE SUN D. 34,960 .,. oC1 26 1984 jPHREl.l.l'S ..._ ___________ ---------~----------------------.,,/o--';7,,, .. .,_-_ V GrO'u.ndwater called environmental focus of '80Sv WASHINGTON ProtdJtfn\\ie which he said would sacrifice some concentrated on known sources of scription of the nation's groundwater face water, which can by cleansed in ation's ground water will be the underground aquifers to contamicontamination storage tanks, landquality may never be attainable. part by currents and sunlight. "principal environmen~l_ concern for nation. fills, pipelines, factories and septic -Of 200 substances found in Lhe res~ of the decade," Sen._ Da,vid Part of the problem with protecting tanks but only a handful of states ground water, only 18 are covered by Dure~ger, R-Min"1,, said 'nl,1-p'S. ground water is "that nobody can see have looked at "non-point sources" federal water quality standards. day in''releasing a new congres,io,ial it," unlike the damage caused to tree such as the impact of pesticides and Nothing is known about the toxicity of _'ltudy of the problem. leaves from acid rain, said Durenfertilizers applied to land that makes more than half the chemicals and al The report by the Office of Technolberger. up the "recharge area" of an undermost nothing is known about the inter>gy Assessment ,backs up crmcs""lh The OTA study found: ground ac~ifer. action of those substances. Such ~he environmen~l movement who Groundwater contamination has Grouildwater quality is not easily chemicals are more often more con:::harge Congress and f~eral an
PAGE 101

illht Qllurhm-ilil'UlWr JI\CKSON, MISS D S9.'.J5!: Ot;T 26 1984 llY.i/fEU.E'S Groundwater programs faulted Supplies inadequately protected, congressional report says Gannett News Ser.ice WASHINGTON -A patchwork of state and federal programs inadequately protects the nation's groundwater sup plies from the threat of chemical contamination, a congres sional study says. "In releasing this report we are launching the environmen tal issue for the rest of this decade," Sen. David Durenberger, R-Mi111n., said Thursday. Co~' Q~fi~_!)fJ'~M.OJ!)gy ~ment completed its report to the Senate Environment and Public Works committee with a recommendation for a comprehensive national groundwater policy. "Despite growing state and federal efforts, programs are still limited in their ability to protect against contamination," the OT A study said. Durenberger agreed with the O!A..r.ecommendation, say ing, "We are lacking a national policy, a comprehensive legislative~ mandate, to protect our underground water supplies." The OT A findings parallel those of a draft EPA report re leased by an environmental group Thursday that said the agency was "ill-prepared" to monitor chemical leakage at hazardous waste disposal sites. A spokesman for the group, Environmental Safety, called the reports "a total indictment of the groundwater program." More than half the nation's population depends on under ground sources for drinking water supplies. Since 1950, groundwater use has nearly tripled to an estimated 90 billion gallons per day. Despite legislative efforts to protect the commodity, the OT A report said water supplies continue to be threatened by leaking landfills, underground tanks, septic tanks and agricultural runoff. The OT A report also concluded that: Existing programs have a "narrow focus," are concerned with selected sources of contamination, and often deal with the problem after the contamination has been discov ered. The report said corrective action at a single site can cost as much as $15 million. Federal drinking water statutes exist for just 22 pollutants, despite the fact that over 200 natural and synthetic con taminants have been detected in groundwater supplies. Groundwater protection programs are not coordinated : among separate agencies. In one state, seven separate agen-j cies deal with groundwater issues. I In some cases, federal law has amplified the problem by : emphasizing surface water quality lakes, rivers and, streams while failing to recognize potential groundwater problems.

PAGE 102

2 studies, call water programs inadequate By carol Stevens USA TODAY Federal programs don't adequately protect the USA's underground water from pollution, say two studies released Thursday, but states that depend heavily on groundwater are taking protective steps. Half the population depends : on groundwater for drinking water about 90 billion gallons a day. The rest depend on livers, lakes and reservoirs. A report by Congres.c;'s Of ~ of !~~Otg)'._~~l:f!! .. groun er contamma-tion detected in every state is raising the risk of cancer and other serious illnesses. And an Environmental Pro tection Agency draft report i says.federal programs to moni / tor groundwater contamina tion aren't working. But in Florida, with 92 per. cent of its drinking water from groundwater, "We're pretty progressive," says the state Department of Environmental Regulation's Kathy Cavanaugh. Officials are developing a computer data bank charting groundwater problems statewide. A 1983 law sets strict standards to protect groundwa ter from leaking hai.ardous waste landfill~ and underground fuel storage tanks. Sen. Dave Durenberger, RMinn., said he will call for fed eral groundwater protective legislation next year. Elsewhere: In California, leaking toxic solvents from tanks in Silicon Valley prompted a 1983 law re quiling owners of underground tanks to monitor existing tanks for leakage and install doublewalled tanks at new facilities. Eight states have stricter groundwater testing standards than the federal government: New York, Virginia, Maryland, Montana, New Jersey, Missou rt, New Mexico and Wyoming. USA TODAY WASHINGTON, DC crnc. t ,332,974 OCi 26 1984 .lli!!i/1..',t/CS

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mt,t ilttroit 1'frtt ,rtss DETROIT, MICH. D. 631,989 SUN. 771.A183 OCT 27 1984 BU'ffffff'S .WELL WATER;neiaW;Ii cleanup plans can he unhealthy and costly. l,Pt7f \'., THE SCARY PART of this week's About half the state's residents depend congressional rep.ort on our underground on wells -individual and municipal water supplies was this: When pollution is I for drinking, cooking, cleaning and growdiscovered, there ls little that can be done. Ing food. Admirably, Gov. Blanchanl' has And the few possible corrective actions offered an extensive plan to clean up and, are highly expensive. .more importantly, prevent groundwater_ The report, Issued by Congress contamination. of Tec,a~Q&Y and Assessment, is part of a The governor says his plan would cost newiii ISID8.ymg1foi,-ofsfudies. A U.S. $20 million a year. ls that enough? Can H~use committee says that, of all natural that mpney be spent effectively? Will the resources, groundwater is among plan work In every aspect? On these most vulnerable to contamination. Yet questions, Michigan needn't wait for the i ~tes aren't ensuring that water supplles ponderous federal bureaucracy. Gov. are safe from toxic waste dumps. says a Blanchard's proposals deserve full and federal Environmental Protection Agency immediate ~xaminatlon by the Legisladraft report. ture, by our university experts, by public The problem fsclose to home. There are interes~.groups and by Industry's analysts. 1,000 places In Michigan where ground Every week that passes without action water contamination h'IS been confirmed;means '.a more expensive situation later. There niay be 50,000 other sites where the For those whose very health .depends oil water supply has been fouled, Department clean well water, the damage may be of Natural Resources officials estimate. Irreparable. I\

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NEW ALBANY, IN LEDGER-TRIBUNE SUN. 10,993 :JCT 23 19,~4 Bft.1.U"S F;;o;,,r._~ashingt~~ !Jureau Reports ~~~Undwater P_o:flution Grows By~ FERRI The report ~1d not,suggest ~pecific to help states do the job, they were op-Tribune Washlngton Bureau laws to deal with the issue, ~t mstead posed by agricultural and industrial WASHINGTON Contamination of urged more federa~ ~rch mto ways lobbies, Western lawmakers worried the nation's groundwater, while not yet to detect, momtor and correct about possible I~ of water sub .. a widespread hazard, is growing ingroundyiater problems. It also offered sidies for their farmer constituents .creasingly dangerous as state and fed-no estimates on what groundwaterand the Reagan Administration. eral lawmakers. practically :ig11ore the protection programs,.; would cost the Durenberger, a leading Republican i '.problem, according to Congressional taxpayer. ~: critic of the administration's. en-.. researchers. About half of all AmenC:-ns ~nd vironmental ~icies, complained Echoing com-on groundwater for their drinlung about Reagan aides' continual calls for plaints from water. Tl!e ~emand for it is increasing, more study of pollution p~ems such water-supply ex-too; 90 bilbon gallons of ~water as groundwa~r contammation and perts over recent per day were ~for drinking m_ 1980, acid rain, despite geheral agreement years, the non~.OTA study said,~ with 34 among experts that measures are partisan i billion gallons per day m 1950. needed to correct them. T e c h n o o I~ The report,. which. took more than a The second-term. senator also Assessment i s to c;omplete, sai4.that every ~te. recalled that the: administration ob-week 1ssUed, a ID the country has problem with jected to the legislation on the basis of report warning groundwater pollutian. Many con-cost that stricter antitami!)8nts ~;:in groundwater Durenberger said that "ground-.-: pollution laws are linked to cancer ~da~ge to the water pollution is not yet a fashionable must be enacted to central. nervous system, bver and issue," such as acid rain, and keep groundwater kidneys. the report said. therefore is often ignored by politi-r ro m being FERRI The crux of the pro1'lem IS that of 200 ciaos. However, he contended that the ultimately undrinkable. contaminants .found.pin groundwater OTA report raises "a public issue that The report maintained that mere supplies by the researchers, only 18 will be the principal environmental stringent laws are needed to protect are covered by f~ anti-pollution concern for the rest of this decade." water supplies from the effects of aglaws .... Jc He pointed to recent highly publiciz.ricultural chemicals, leaks from The problem is co~pounded by the ed contaminations of groundwater underground storage tanks 'and even fact that while the.1 n!ltion's public throughout the Northeast, Florida and common residential wastes. water supplies are IJJOllltored by gov-his home state of Minnesota. He also Those substances tend to get lost in ernment agencies, the private wells noted the recent closing of 39 public tJte shuffle when federal and state s~ng 11 million rural households wells serving 400,000 residents of "legislators draft environmental legisnot. California 'l San Gabriel Valley, lation which more often addresses At a news conference to announce the because of contamination by an in-. ;more' dramatic pollution problems report's finding~.~ Sen. David durstrialsolvent. : -caused by toxic wastes and large landDurenberger
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THE CHARLOTTE OBSERVER CHARLOm,NC D. 176,977 SUN. 250,638 NOV 1 1984 flUBREJ.J.E'S Pure/W~ter eorr;Al ) )~ Cdn N. C. Resident~ Be SU;~e :i:,:A series of authoritative studies "This study has document~ the\ -the latest was released last week by detection of over 200 substaces I the nonpartisan 01!.i.~ o1 To~llDQlogy both natural and synthetic -in .4:'sessment (OTA) -points to the groundwater. Yet the federal govern-1 neea o detect, co~rect and prevent ment has established only 2Z ma~da~i;Qntamination of the nation's valutory water-quality standards, 18 of .able underground water supplies, which are for specific chemicals." i ,cemmonly called 0groundwater." In light of suc.h facts, the only rea! < .. .,;such steps are especially important son North carolina isn't experiencing in North carolina, where more than mass hysteria, and shouldn't, is that 'J'tillf of all residents get their drinking experts think that only 1~2% of water from wells that tap the water groundwater supplies are actually ~\rapped in rocks deep below the contaminated. But they also believe ]and's surface, and 80-90% of rural that pollutants leaked from septic r.esidents drink groundwater, most of tank systems, sanitary landfills, haz~ it untreated. ardous-waste landfills, waste Ia-But N.C. officials, while expressing goons, accidental spUls and leaks, un toncern, say they haven't had the fi. authorized dumping, agricultural op, nancial resources or the expertise to erations and pipeline and sewer leaks .wnitor groundwater as carefully are moving, unseen and unde'.)in4>1iegul~ly .as studl~J; .sch as the .tect~ beneath.the earth's sm-tace ~TA's,Jlidicate are needed. what may have prevented a disas1 Several passages from the OT A reter so fuJs .. that., these contaminants *'rt underline the urgency of the sit movE{\,ery slowly and, to som~~-,Jation: tent, are.,dispersed and diluted, ~fore :,. ''The extent to which people reaching:'. drinking water. < .,, :1~lying on privat~ wells are being.exBut unless something is don~;),peo:p)sed to groundwater contaminants pie are going to start getting sick and ;i)S unknown, and .data are generally dying from groundwa~er. pollution. ,.Jiot being collectedto find,out." The state,shouldn't waitforthat kind : : "Even if groundw~ter is conof evidence of. a problem before it ~minated, it may be odorless, colortakes action. When the legislature less and tasteless." meets next year, it should give state ;. "Public health concerns arise environmental agencies the mandate ~ecause some contaminants are indiand the money for the laboratories vidually linked to cancers, liver and and scientists to detect and prevent kidney damage and damage to the contamination of North Carolina's uncelitral nervous system (brain)." derground water reservoir.

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GARY, IN POST TRIBUNE D. 80,880 S. 92,988 NOV. 2 1984 BV/tR.E'l.LE'S Where's the poUution policy? f Two recent happenings point out the flaws in the Reagan administration's insistence that air a~d water pollution is a problem for the states and local governments to handle. The first is that most states are simply not doing anything. Our opinions In 1982, responsibility for maintaining clean air switched from the national park system to the states. Now, the Environmental Protection Agency, which is back on a better track since William Ruckelshaus took over as director, is rescinding that local authority. It seems that only two of the 36 states involved have done anything at all. Now the federal government will have to approve any expansion or maintenance of operations that pollute public lands. The second involves nature's disregard for art$,cial borders acid rain and contaminated water know no city, county or state lines -and exemplifies the need for a national policy on hazardous waste disposal. In the early 1970s, people started -;burying chemical wastes instead of dumping them in lakes and rivers. Now a new government study shows the country has simply transplanted its chemical waste problem. Surface water is cleaner, but underground drinking water is slowly, but steadily, becoming polluted. Groundwater is the only water resource not specifically ;,.; protected by federal law. Atthough the Qffice_~ 9f Te~hn~!!l8Y .b~Jt~s_snient study estimates that only 1-2 percent of the nation's underground water is contaminated now, it calls this a major pollution problem because 1) the pollution is continuing to accumulate and once contaminated, the water is likely to stay that way; 2) underground water supplies are the source of drinking water for half the nation's population; 3) known corrective actions are expensive, running to tens of millions of dollars per: site. The study states that at least 1,000 drinking water wells have been declared unsafe for humans already and thousands more have measurable levels of chemical pollution. The House approved a groundwater protection plan earlier this year as part of its reauthorization of the Safe Drinking Water Act, but the bill died ) in the Senate because .of opposition to 1 the groundwater plan by the Reagan I administration. 1 Congress and what~ver administration is in power must start taking a long-term look at the pollution problems this country has created for itself. There already is evidence of potential water shortages in some parts of the country. The country can't afford to waste its water resources. A firm and effective national policy is the only chance for controlling pollution in the future

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SCIENCE NEWS WASHINGTON, O.C. W. 190,000 NOV 10 1984 B/LlfP,EU.FS Leaks in groundwater protection tection last April, it is limited to coordinat ing EPA activities. And, says OTA, while EPA acknowledges the need for com prehensive resource management, its strategy does not fully provide (or it. In releasing a recent report from the Congressional Office of Technology As sessment (OTA), Sen. Dave Durenberger (IR-Minn.) said, "I believe we are launching a public issue that will be the principal en vironmental concern for the rest of this decade.The issue is groundwater con tamination, now detected in every state. The OTA report warns that the risks of groundwater contamination by organic and inorganic chemicals, radioactive ele ments and microorganisms will probably increase because current federal and state laws are too narrowly defined to ade quately protect against contamination. According to OTA, groundwater is the source of drinking water for about half of the U.S. population, and supplies 40 per cent of the nation's irrigation needs and 80 percent of water used in rural environ ments. Withdrawals of U.S. groundwater have grown from 34 billion gallons a day in 1950 to 90 billion gallons a day in 1980. fects of many other substances and mix tures of substances are not known. According to Paula Stone, director of the study. many of the chemicals now showing up in groundwater entered com mercial production just after World War II. But because they move slowly in ground water, and because awareness of their po tential impacts is fairly recent, these con taminants are just now being looked for and detected. "Historically, the scientific community has believed that soil and subsurfale processes had the capacity of assimilating these contaminants, of somehow neu tralizing their effects," says Stone. "'It's only in recent years that we've begun to recognize the limited capacity of the soil processes ... to do that." As a result, groundwater has not re ceived the kind of protection that surface water has. There is no explicit national leg islative mandate to protect groundwater quality, says the report Although the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) established an Office or Ground-Water ProOTA also notes that only 18 or the re ported 200 substances found in groundwa ter are covered by federal water quality standards. And, says the report, "These Federal standards, developed under the National Interim Primary Drinking Water Regulations of the Sale Drinking Water Act, are inadequate.According to OTA, government pro grams tend to focus on point sources of contaminants such as landfills while ig noring more diffuse sources such as the use of fertilizers. Moreover, government efforts are directed at the protection of public drinking water supplies while as much as 20 percent of the U.S. population may rely on private wells for drinking water. Ourenberger said that the OTA report gives Congress its marching orders on environmental action. and he expects a flurry of bills in the next Congress to patch up the leaks in government protection of groundwater. -S. Weisburd Only a small portion, I to 2 percent, of the nation's groundwater resource is thought to be contaminated. But OTA maintains that this estimate is probably low because there has been no compreg hensive or uniform testing of all groundj water sources. Moreover, concludes OTA, :i the increased usage of groundwater and i the proliferation of a wide range of coni laminating sources from septic tanks j L_,;.-~J-~~!nc::::=jt=~~j:::=.;'i=============:::! and pesticide spraying to uranium mining c .............. will probably lead to increased human "'"" ...... ...., exposure to contaminants. Some of the contaminants have been linked to cancers and damage to the liver, kidney and cen tral nervous system, OTA reports. The ef-----M...-.nt OI ............. CCIM-l!Nrlon -~---eon,,,_ a,qu1Mt owa:k,an o,aunc,.at.,, Depending or, the soun::e, pathways of groundwater contamination can vary.

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WASHINGTON, D.C. THE WASHINGTON TIMES DAIIV No; 12 1984 {JU~l?l'LLC MILTCOPULOS It's safe todrink that glass ofwater! Enough already! Jlllt when It looked like Wuhlncroa wu ':ti: to qui"t .,_ "~ h" ... T ,.--, .... ~, :0, w lie, t e doomuyer1 an dema1011e1 decided to violate the relative tranquility of the moment. So. inatud of enjoyln1 a bit ol peace and solitude, the nation la again IUl\ll~ by the c:1arioll er,. of calami~. y The lateit bit of "1ky-il-falllnc" rhetoric c:ome1 from the Office of irhnoloJY Assessment;"wliim le I u1 we are all In 1mnuneat clan 1er of beinc po~ by the water from our t1p1 OI' at least that's what It sounds like when edited down to a 45-second apot on the nlahtly n,w,. A more careful examination, thouah, tel11 a 1iiahtly dilrerent story. There are a number of areas wbere the 1roundwcer may become polluted if step1 aae not taken to protect it. Moreovei, there are a number of fresh-water wells that already allow evilence of pollution. Now, certainlJ the anurance of pure drinklncwater l1 a reasonable concern, but why the 1Care ,rum Even the OTA 1tudy (released Oct. 25)acknowledaes that a small percentaae of groundwater 11 affecre by pollution. Further, there 0111 laws which require monltorina of the leakage of toxic substancel Into an,undwater that's how OTA waa able to get data on the subject in the first place. More imponant, those laws provide for individual states to implement the procrams to deal with the problem and enfOl'ce the relevant perform ance standards. OTA ays the stares aren't doinc a cood enough job, but fails to recognize that this 11 a prob lem that will take a long time to solve and one which only recently baa pmered much public atten lion. What is most bothersome about the whole affair. though, is that It is one more example of trying to frighten the pants off the pub lic without Rood reason. The simple fact is: there is little chance that if you drink a glass of Mill Copulas is director qf energy water from your faucet, you are studies .it the Heritdge Foundation likely to keel over dead. It's not even ;"' -----"' likely that you'll keel over if you drank two or three. But to listen to the news reports on the OTA study. you'd think the stuff would take the paint off your car. That's not only silly, it's another example of blowin11 a modest problem all out of proportion to"make" 1 story where none exists. Of course, theres a reason why OTA and its Capitol Hill allies want 10 make an issue of drinking water afety. Ifs a 11reat way to frighten people into accepting a greater fed eral role in their lives, while creat in11 a vast new area of pork for the proverbial barrel. After all. if the states aren't doing the job, and you're being poisoned by your own tap water. shouldn"t the federal gov ernment move in? When it does, ahouldn't there be programs to pay for c:leanups of 1111pected sources of pollution, and the refurbishing of water systems s111pected of possibly having been at one time maybe subject to con lamination? And what about paying for all sorts of compensation 10 vic tims of groundwater pollution? (Never mind that among the benefi c:iaries of the compensation will be the self-styled "public-interest" lawyers who take 40 or 50 percent of any damage award or settlement fortheir"se,lfless" efforts on behalf on the poor beleaguered con sumer.) Well, certainly. It's the American way, isn't It? At least in the eyes of the professional envi ronmentalists. As for the rest of us. all we have 10 do is foot the bill. lnterestinsly, this isn the first shot out or the gun on the question of groundwater pollution. Earlier !his year, during the "Superfund'" debate, the House of Representa tives tried to llip a provision into the reauthorization bill tbat would have mandated a federal program to pay for the replacement of any water system located near a toxic waste spill. There didn't have to be evidence that the spill created a health hazard, merely the fact that a spill had taken place. Moreover, there was no need to prove it was a result of negligence, or that it came from a toxic waste dump. In other words, if, for example, a tanker truck carrying a toxic-waste sub stance was hit by a passenger car. and a small amount of the sub stance leaked onto the roadway, the community in which it occurred most likely would have qualified for a new water system even if the old one was perfectly all right. Scare tactics like those con tained in the OTA announcement help create the environment that allows such legillation to pass which, fortunately, it didn"t. So. no matter what you may have heard or read in the news recently, go ahead and take a drink from your faucet. It really is safe to drink the water<

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THE NEW YORK TIMES NEW YORK.NY D, 970,051 SUN, 1,023,115 SAT. 70~,QQO NOV 20 t984 r plies" (news article, Oct. 25) cites the are now seeing an. anlllogous situation mous value of this resource. It ~Environmental Protection Agency's in the R.C.R.A. program. sents 96 percent of the nation's fr:ashnew report, which states that provi-The Office of T~~.!~Swater supply; it was used at a ra:n, of sions of the Resource Conservation .~ report on ground-water pro90 billion gallons a day in 1980.:,0ne and Recovery Act (R.C.R.A.) of 1976, tection, released Oct. 26, stated: half of the U.S. population and 95,perrequiring monitoring of ground-water "Contamination of ground water has cent of rural America depend uponit contamination, are being routinely occurred in every state and is being for drinking water. ,, .. violated. Specifically, the study says detected with increasing frequency The threat to the resource is equally less than 20 percent of the hazardous-... contaminants found in ground impressive; over 200 substances-have waste-disposal sites known to1be subwater are associated with adverse been detected in ground water,,yet ject to monitoring requirements are in health, social, environmental and E.P .A. has established only 22 mandac.ompliance with the law. economic impacts public health tory water-quality standards. TwentyThis comes as no surprise to me or concerns arise because some connine percent of the drinking water,supprobably to the rest of Congress. In taminants are individually linked to plied for large cities by ground water fact, the poor performance of the cancers, liver and kidney damage is contaminated with volatile organic E.P.A. in implementing and enforc-and damage to the central nervous chemicals. A. ing the key components of R.C.R.A. sysfem .. as experience with haz-Most important with regard,.to led to strong bipartisan support and ardous wastes has shown, the cost R.C.R.A.,27,000ofthelSl,OOOsurface passage of an R.C.R.A. reauthorizeto clean up contamination can impoundments are known to conwn ; tion this year. This strengthens subbe enormously greater than the cost toxicand/orcarcinogenicchemicals. stantially provisions of the program to prevent contamination." Thirty-five percent of the ind~al and mandates deadlines for E.P.A. impoundments are unlined, and 30 implementation. Continued E.P.A. percent sit directly over gmmdinaction will now trigger automatic water sources with no barrier be-alternative requirements, such as tween the hazardous wast& and bans on certain disposal praetices. ground-water supply. '' Unfortunately, &P.A.'s poor perBecause of E.P.A.'s failure lo act formanceon its statutoryresponsibilresponsibly, .Congress has ,'iJee~ ities is not restricted to R.C.R.A. Conforced to be more prescriptive, and gress learned from a General Aclimit the agency's discretion by:lnan. counting Office investigation and dating actions, instituting deadlines I hearings in 1983 that over 146,000 and legislating automatic alterruu.i.ve violations of the Safe Drinking Water requirements when the agency.does Act occurred in 1980 alone, and the not meet statutory deadlines.,,For E.P.A. has referred only 21 cases to the sake of our country's natural the Department of Justice for enresources and the health of our peoforcement action in the entire history pie, we look toward real proglll!SS in of the act over the last 10 years. cleaning up pollution and preventing No enforcement action has been at-further environmental contaminatempted by E.P.A. in any state that tion. DENNISE. ECKART has been granted primary enforce- Member of Congress, 11th Dist:, Ohio ment responsibility, even though the BobGale Washington, Nov. 8,,1984 -.. _:

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WASHINGTON, D.C. THE WASHINGTON TIMES OAltV NOV 23 1984 BUHR El.LE'S I 1Letters,. Maybe one should not drink a glass of water Milt Copulos's Nov. 12 column, "It's safe to drink that glass of water," suggests that the press reports on the Office of Technology Ass~.'l1U.t report on grot.iiidwater contamination is hype, a story where one does Aot exist. I am not making any apologies for the exu berance of the press, but one may infer from the column that Mr. Copulos does not think much of the OTA report, nor does he seem to believe that groundwater contami nation is an important issue. He is wrong on both counts. Consider the source of the report. The Office of Technology J\s.s~.~!llfil1t Ts a rninpartisan sup port agency to the U.S. Congress. As such, OTA examines the best available information on selected issues and reports its findings, which first must be approved by a. group of selected outside experts. For Mr. Copulas to suggest that the OTA findings have been dis torted by the press is one thing. But to disregard a significant report on this basis is to ignore the facts. Pro tecting groundwater is important to our future. and the growing number of reports of its contamination should be sufficient reason to study the problem. Groundwater is the primary source of drinking water for nearly half of the American population. We are luckv that most of the nation's groundwater is of good quality; nevertheless. we ought to pay attention to keeping it clean. As Mr. Copulas noted. only a small percentage of the nation's groundwater seems to be contaminated-only 1 to 3 percent, according to the Envi'ronmental Protection Agency and some groundwater experts. That is. at least, they think so. No national survey of groundwater quality has been taken, therefore, at best, the experts can only make educated guesses about its overall quality based on known cases of contami nation. ., Mr. Copulos seems to feel that the laws protecting groundwater are adequate. I assume he is talking about the groundwater monitoring requirements of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act, the federal law that provides the 1 authority for regulation of hazardous waste storage and disposal facilities. Each of these operating facilities is supposed to monitor the groundwater underneath their sites to ensure that chemical wastes are not leaching downward into the wat-er. Although the requirement exists, compliance with it is a different story. Recent studies by EPA and the General Accounting Office ( a nonpartisan congressional agency) show that about 64 to 80 percent of the facilities surveyed were not complying with the mon itoring requirements. At a majority of these facilities we don't really i know whether groundwater sup plies are threatened by contamina tion. And maybe one should not drink a glass of that water either. DONALD V. FELICIANO Congressional Research Service Library of Congress Washington

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1!11N tiilSPI f AL PUHt;ll,\SINlj NEWS Mr.L!:/\N. 1!i\ ~.10Mf!ll 't i'1'~_,, r !I '.) /., 1 i (. _BV!J!JE.u.E'S study blames advances tor inflation WASHINGTON The use of new medical devices, machinery, drugs and .. ,dvanced procedures a~e to blame for .. 1pproximately one-third of annual increases in Medicare costs, m:cording to a recent ~tudy by the Congressional OHice ol Tec~~ology Assessment. The report found that Medicare e~-penses increased 107% per ben~hciary from 1977 to 1982, 30%_ofwh1ch could be attributed to medical tech nology. Specifically, the study notes that: When Medicare began paymg for home parenteral nutrition, only tO patients per year were expected to use it. As of 1979, the num?e_r was about 880, at a cost of $28 mtlhon. Tlie kidney dialysis program which began at about $250 million I 0 vears ago now costs $1.8 billion. Research on intensive care units show that the sickest patients con sume a disproportionate share of ICU costs. The study warns that unless some action is taken to "bring about more cost,.effective use of both ~ew,_and e~ isting medical technologies, Medi care will continue to face large cost increases it cannot control. Among the office's recomme~dations were to limit the number of sites where high technology medicin~ is practiced, let the program c~ns1der cost as well as medical effecuveness, and cut back on hospital reimburse-. ment for capital equipment. (l THESUN BALTIMORE, Mil (MORNING) D. 185,500 SUN. 394.GOO DEC 4 1981 BU/f,.(fs.t.1.rs Medical progress: linked to U.S. health insurance WASHINGTON (AP) Federal \ health insuraJlce programs have led to a dramatic rise in use of medical devices that were once prohibitively expensive, from .artificial hip joints to computerized blood tests. a con,ireaional report said October 11. -~,0'Jt~~l~li'&~ "iiicr the medical devices in= bad l'OWD from less than $1 billion in sales in 1958 to more than $17 bil lion in ltlS, and had revolutionized medical practice while improving or prolonging people's lives. '. Artificial lli.p joints, for eumple, have enabled elderly people with crippllq disabilities to walk and live independeDtly, it said, and other devices, such aa, pacemakers, have extended lives. Computerized scanners and"ultralOIIDd devices have replaced more dangerous, painful and costly diag nostic procedures sucb aa aplorator:, surcer:,, the report said. Innova tions in needles, sutures and microscopes have greatly improved cataract nrpry, it said. The agency said the federal Medi care program for the elderly and the Medicaid program of health care for the needy, establisbed in 1985, have greatly IDcreued health insurance c:overaee and apanded the market for medical devices. "'nae purpoee of health insurance PfOll'8IDI sucb as Medicare Is to permiJ people to obtain needed medical can without risting financlal ruin," the report said. "But there Is diseretioa involved in the use of medical tecbnology, and' for many devices, insurance coveraee bas re1 duced the importance of cost as one of the few facton that.motivate dis cretion." Congress amended the Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act bl 1976 to extend government regulation to a wide variety of medical devices, based on the degree of potential risk. The Food and Drug Administration bas authority to require businesses to register and 6st their devices, to obtain prior clearance for marketing and ensure the safety and effective ness of devices.

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... ,1, :.:_ ... .,,. ~. --..;-:. ,: ,r.. ,. / WASHINIHUN, U.G. w. 153.000 &r;r:n FDA Hit on Device Regulation What do Band-Aids. contact lenses, cardiac pacemaken, and nuclear magnetic resonance machines have in common? They are all medical devices. according 10 federal law. Judging the safety and eft'ectiveness of these four products and 41,500 other medical devices is the job of lhe Food and Drug Administration (FDA). But for a variety of reasons, says a government report released last week, federal regulation of medical devices is beset with major problems. As a result, little information is available lo determine whether medical devices, which are becoming increasingly sophisticated, are safe and work as intended. In 1976. after several reports of hazardous medical products were investigated by Congress. federal lawmakers passed legislation lhal significantly broadened FDA s authority to regulate medical devices. Since then. however, FDA "has not implemented major portions of the law ... according to a report by the Office of Technology. Assess ment t_QTA), "Federal Policies ancf the .Medical Devices Industry. The comprehensive. 2-year study examined federal policies. including FDA regulations, that aft'ecl the thriving $17-billion medical devices industry in the United States. The report says that while there do not appear to be any obvious, major risks that are not being addressed by FDA. this situation may reftec:t either a true lack of sipificanl risks or lack of knowledge about hazards that do exist. The weaknesses in current regulation of medical devices stem from two faclon. lhe study suggests. There are inherent problems with the 1976 legislation that limit FDA's ability to monitor these products. But the agency itself is to blame for many of the deficiencies as well. The 1976 legislation sought lo strengthen consumer protection while ensuring that the law would not overburden a young and growing industry. With this latter goal in mind, Congress passed a sipificant provision that exempt ed a large number of medical devices from immediate stringent regulation. The OT A report suggests that this exemption has greatly restricted FDA 's authority to collect safety and eft'ecliveness data on medical devices. The legislation divided medical devices into two catego ries, those marketed before 1976 and those marketed after 1976. All products lhal pose potentially high risks, such as cardiac pacemaken, are required 10 pass strict standards. But according 10 the exemption, high-risk devices marketed after 1976 that are "substantially equivalent" to a pre1976 device do not require FDA approval before they are marketed. In essence, companies are only required to submit safely and efficacy data when FDA classifies a device as posing a potentially high risk, and by lhal time. ii may have been on the market for years. Congress reasoned that a double standard would exist if a new device. which was similar 10 an earlier version. must be approved by FDA before marketing. Legislators were also concerned lhal, without the exemption. a monopoly would be created for the company manufacturing a pre-1976 device. While the reasoning may he legitimate. the OTA repurt explains. an overwhelming majorily of devices have come on lhe market in lhe past K years under lhis exception. As a result, there is u paucity of data ahoul the polenlial hazards of lhese devices and whe1her they work as intended. Between fiscal }'car 1977 and l91C I. FDA received 17 .IHNI notices of new medical devices of which only 300 were nol deemed equivalent 10 earlier products. FDA' s method of classifying devices based on risk has also contributed 10 delays in the gathering of safety infor, mation. FDA set up a three-tiered classification system; according 10 potential risk-high, medium. and low. Con: sumer groups and the medical device industry agree ihal the agency created a cumbersome system. The OT A report points out that FDA still has not finished classifying many devices. The agency has not yet developed standards 10 evaluate products in lhe medium risk category and they have, in eft'ect, been regulated as if' they are in the low-risk category. the report says. This is by far the largest category of medical devices and "as a practical matter. there is little possibility that [perform ance! standards can be formulated .... Even when FDA completes the classification task, man ufacturers of pre-1976 products will still have additional lime to submit safely and efficacy data lo lhe agency, thanks to Congress. The 1976 legislation allows these manufacturers a grace period of at least 30 months-once their product is classified-to supply the information to FDA. Under the Reagan Administration, the agency also 1 proposed to give funher leeway to companies that manufactured potentially high-risk devices before 1976. FDA has suggested that these companies be allowed 10 apply for an experimental permit so that the device could continue to be used. The proposal would, in eft'ec:t, let companies continue to sell their potentially high-risk devices even if they cannot provide the necessary information, the OT A repon says. "1be rationale for this use of the [permit) is weak," notes the report. "Manufacturen have had years to prepare" the necessary data for their devices. Until recently. companies submitted data about hazards associated with their marketed products on a voluntary basis. Although Congress vested FDA with the authority to require these data, it has declined to do so. Late in th,: Carter term, FDA proposed rules for mandatory reporting, but the plan languished after the change in administration. Shonly before a House hearing was held last month lo investigate the malfunction of anesthesia machines, how ever, Secretary of Health and Human Services Margaret Heckler announced that FDA would now require manufac turers to report hazards associated with their products. The OT A repon notes that the voluntary system was "not an adequate substitute" for mandatory reporting. Few companies voluntarily supplied FDA with data. Many of lhe reports of hazards of a panicular product originated from a competing company, the study says. In some cases. the manufacturers report device problems "only after a product recall or other remedial action is completed. The report says that Congress may need 10 revise the 1976 legislation 10 narrow the scope of FDA's task. II represents the second government study that has recently criticized the regulation of medical devices. The other report was issued in September 1983 by the Generdl Accounting Office. Despile prolllems with existing law. says OTA stalf analyst Lawrence Miike. some lcsisla1ors are reluctant lo propose any changes for fear lhal it would he vulncrahlc to radical change in the current ;;1n1ircgula tory cnvironmcnt.-MAAJORlE SUN

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,... ,. Ql~r &alt Eukr illrthunr SALT LAKE CITY. UTAH o. 101,183 S. 123.975

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LOS ANGELES, CA DAILY NEWS Valley Edition D. 132,936 SUN. 152,512 SAT. 119,818 Or.T 12 1984 Study asks whether expensive. l'hedicaf deVi~iS used' wi~ely .,. ', .-. WASHINGTON (UPI) third parties such as Medicare Medicare and private health in'and private health insurers r.ose surance make expensive medical from 45 percent to almost 70 per devices available to the average cent. consumer, but a congressional "Policies of third-party payers study released Thursday queshave encouraged the use of ex lions if the techvology is being pensive and sophisticated devic used wisely. es for acute care," the report The medical devices industry said. "In contrast. devices associwith products ranging from ated with prevention and reha simple,. inexpensive items like bilitation, which are less likely bandages and_ stethoscopes, to to be covered by insurance. may sophisticated. expensive equip-be underused." ment such as ultrasound devices Hospitals have traditiqnally -'has grown from less than$! been paid according to the billion in sales in 1958 to more charges they have billed or the than $17 billion last year, reportcosts they have incurred, en ed the Office of Technology Ascouraging the adoption and use sessmept a nonpartisan analytiof expensive medical technolo calagency that serves Congress. gies and discouraging cost conDuring that time. the share of tainment. total medical expenses paid by OTA:reported that Medicare's' --~~~-w >',',v~:C ;;_,,:~_~'.~ ~;l~. ~:::::-~~~-~~t .. ,~ ., .: /l!!Q/fEi.~LrS Insurance leads to costly medical_ devices Fed~ health insurance programs have led to a dramatic nse In use. of once prohibitively expensive, medical devices, rrom artUlcial hip joints to computerized blood tests, a congres.,ional report said Thursday. The Offlce...,gt...I,ecbQQJo&,Y' ~ment, a research arm of Congress. said the medical devices industry has grown from less than $1 billion in sales in 1958 to more than $17 billion in 1983, and has revolutionized medical practice while improving or prolonging people's lives. Medicare and Medicaid have greatly expanded the market for medical devices, the agency said. f -'.: riew irtethoc(oi paying h6spi~s, prospectively on the basis of .di agnosis-related groups has the! potential to make hospitals, and consequently devices manufac turers, more cost conscious. At the same time;. Medicare's hospital payment method for di. agnosis-related groups raises some concerns: how to assure high.quality patient care when health-care provi(lers have fi: nancial incentives,t to minimize : the use of expensi,re devices. I The Medical Device Amend ments of 1976 es~blished regu".' lation of devices based on the degree of potential risk. In general. FDA now has the authority to require businesses to register an~,~t their.Jevices. .i.

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BUSINESS MARKETING CHICAGO, IL MONTHLY 35,983 DEC 1984 II OT A reports on Mid East exports WASHINGTON-A new federal report foresees a slowing of sales of U.S. technology to Arab nations. The study from the congressional Qffice. .. o.f J'echnology Assessment {OTA,} looked prfmal'tly-llt"lh'iffutore o(American exports of petrochemical and nuclear power facilities, telecom munications systems, commercial airline support services and medical ser vices to Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Domestic suppliers have courted Saudi Arabia and Egypt with far more success than. the other four Arab nations. "The Middle East will remain an important market for technology trade. in-the-.. ,. years ahead," the OTA concludes, "but the explosive growth of years past will probably not be repeated." The easing of frenetic economic growth in these Arab nations partly .; explains why their cash registers will ring less frequently. Oil revenues may grow as little as 5% annually in real terms, OTA predicts, a good bit slower than the near-20% rates of the 1970-82 period. The OT A holds out little likelihood that U.S. companies will maintain export. volumes by expanding market share. The reason: American exporters face intensifying competition from Western European and Japanese com panies whose governments help build ', \ \ trade bridges to the Middle East. Moreover, the U.S. government en forces a battery of export restrictions that often make it difficult for high technology exporters to ship to the Persian Gulf and elsewhere. Perhaps coipcidentally, a few days after the OTA report was issued in September, the Department of Com merce announced the latest loosening ofrules governing multiple export shipments of strategically-important technologies. More than $20 billion worth of goods are shipped each year under this program to a wide swath of countries, according to Commerce. ,The rules were expected to become final in mid-November. In response to pressure from indus try, Commerce will no longer require .exporters.to certify that their over seas customers will not re-export-the goods without U.S. permission. In place of that and other prohibitions, companies wiUhave t9 keep records of where exports go, thereby providing the Commerce Dept. with an audit trail should it want to sniff it down. These kinds of initiatives are bound to help high technology exporters who have seen their share of the Middle Eastern market (the OTA analyzed 14 countries for this segment) for machinery and equipment drop from 23% in 1970 to 20% in 1982. ....... ~-:-.;' .. :, .. 'BUSINESS WEEK NEW YORK, NY W. 900,26() PHONE WATCH WHY THE U.S. IS SLIPPING IN THE MIDUST I n the decade since the 1973 oil price hikes, many Middle E~te~ coui_i tries .. have_ been-~busily .spen. ~m. g ~e1r petrodollars on odem telecommum~ations .. systems. But U.S. '.comP,3,mes have been losing out to their /apanese and European rivaliicin_.the ba.ttle.for the region's _fat contracts. A.new re port from ~e congressional .Office of Technology AseW!jpt found that ~o.s. manufacturerscaptured only 15% ofthe,$3 billion spent on satellite and telephone gear, in. the Middle Ea.st in 1982, down from 19%-in 1971. Japanese companies,. by contrast, increased their sharefrom,;13%.,-.. ;,,c:. One,reason'' w$1"thai: .European''and Japanese coinpaniei,oft.en offered pur' chasers more attractive financing, sometimes with help from their gov ernments. A less .visible handicap for u. s. companies,. charges ,.c~arles Wohlstetter, chairman of Continental Telecom Inc.; is the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, which/ prohibits U. S. companies from payillg bribes or agent fees abroad. "I remember one case where we were prevented from partici pating in a consortium that won a $7 billion contract because we were un able to pay a fee," he says. "We're the only country in the world that conducts business at that level. We gave the .. .bloody ball game away over there."

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ELECTRONIC NEWS NEW YORK, N. Y. W. 71 .81.n n r, T l I r ., A .} I\ 'I ll!tgBELLE'S :,;I ( See Mid-East Telecom. Mkt. WASHINGTON (FNS) The Middle East market for sophisticated telecommunications equipment and services is projected by U.S. analysts to continue to expand, partly as a result of cooperation, as demons~ated by Arabsat, a regional satellite system but the U.S. share is more likelyto shrink than to grow. More than $3 billion in telecommunications equipment 'is sold in the Middle East annually. Ac cording to a new study bf the Congressional Office of Technology Assepng\1 Japan became the leading supplier by 1980. U.S. firms have been major suppliers of satellite and multiplex equipment, but fi~ from Western Europe and Japan have provided most of the telephone and telex systems that have. been the central focus of Middle Eastern telecommunica tions expansion. OTA advised the House Science & Tecbnol~ Committee considering technology transfer that U.S. companies have maintained about 20 per cent of. Middle East macbinecy and equipment market over the past 10 years, but : face the prospect of market share reduction. The Middle East, OTA reports, will remain an important P, (. ~;.

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PLASTICS ENGINEERING BROOKFIELD CENTER, CT MONTHLY 22,800 OCT 1984 BufWffG ..... -~~--~----'Editorial Forestalling energy dependence ~)4{y After eating a satisfying dinner, most of us are reluctant to think about the next meal. Not to worry. In a society as well organized as ours, food is nearly always available, and prices are generally within predictable limits. While the oil pipe lines are full and our energy appetites sated, again we tend not to think about tomorrow. But unfortunately, the same logic does not hold for our consumption of hydrocarbons. Whereas we can feed the world from our annual record agricultural bounties, we cannot hope to eliminate a large and lengthy cunail ment of oil impons, according to a recent report by the Congressional Office of Technology .-\ssessmcnt; but, OTA says, we can do much to narrciw the gap over the next S years if we move quickly. And now the OTA scenario: Right now, we import 4.8 million barrels of oil a day to supply a total daily demand of l S.8 million barrels. Over a 5-year period, we can replace up to 75 percent of our imports (3.6 million barrels per day) with other energy technologies. Given price inflation following a shortfall, there would still be a decline in the gross national product even if there were total replacement, but the decline would be 40 percent less than one brought about by a SO-percent replacement. Employment losses would be 30 percent less and increases in oil prices cut in half by the competitive pressures of rapid alternative energy technology. By contrast, a SO-percent replacement schedule could result in a severe 6-percent GNP loss for the same period. What are some of the replacement technologies open to us? For starters, we can increase the efficiency of oil used in heating and steam generation and simultaneously replace oil with alternative fuels (natural gas, coal, wood). Secondly, we can increase the fuel efficiency of motor vehicles. But really, we must stimulate the development of new technology by encouraging investments in new projeets. Rising oil prices following a shortfall could be investment stimulus enough; otherwise the government would need to step in with incentives ranging from information and technical assistance to economic motivation and the repeal of investment-inhibiting regu lations (price controls and fuel-adjustment clauses). To remove uncertainty, the government would have to announce that it would intervene if the market is too cautious. Is the necessarily close relationship between business and govern ment disconcerting? In his new book, The Tbtrd Revolution, Irving S. Shapiro, Du Pont's previous chief executive officer, writes that there must be a new contract between business and government, each becoming more responsive to the needs of society at large. He reasons that each entity is not an end in itself, but exists only to benefit the nation. In an industrial society such as ours, a reliable and economical energy supply is the sine qua non of our existence. There could be no beuer opportuni1y chan the energy question for trying the Shapiro thesis. Q(!J_Svu amq':; I

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-~~. I.; .-.., < OTA report Telecommunications and the financial services industry / .. \;t,.~-1 :-{:~~-~-. \~i~.:.; ;_:;;4~'.;-<:.Y\~'.. t~ _, ~it,: This ariicle'ofi::me;,folei ''~\16~-fias I eff7j: ,-' )j. --~ .. ,, -~-~~.:~. I~ f,,. ... 'er ,,. p -~ ... ,..-.. in the rapidly chailgingJi 'ervices industry;J~ndf 1 the challenge posed by tho ;, ,.,,ariges fof t eoefal ,,,c t policy, has been adapted front a short pape1;}by the:-: Office of I.ec.h.o,Qlogy Assessroctll(OTA)', which summarizes a detailed reportJlte OTA made on 'the. financial services industry. The OTA is a non-partisan analytical agency of the U nit:ed States Congress whose work helps Congress deal with technical issues. The report was written at the request of the House 1 Committee on Banking and released last month at a hearing held by the committee. INFORMATION PROCESSING and communication technologies, to gether with consumer response and economic, legal and regulatory fac tors, have dramatically transformed the financial service industry in the last IO years and challenged the prem ises of current federal policies rooted in the 1930s. Because telecommunications is a key component of financial service delivery, fundamental changes now underway in the telecommunications industry will directly affect the price and the mix of financial services that will be offered. Today's financial service industry, particularly its competitive structure, differs markedly from the industry, and its structure, in the 1970s;and it is expected to continue changing at a significant rate at least through this decade. Reliance on advancing tech nologies to deliver services and products-such as credit, deposit-taking, investment and insurance-has increased rapidly. Even the smallest firms can afford the key technologies and can compete with larger firms in providing sophisticated services. Automated. teller machine networks have reduced the significance of geographic restrictions on bank operations and have offered oppor-TELEPHONY/October 1, 1984 ......... tunities for new entrants, such as food and merchandise retailers. Sys tems providing access to funds from virtually any place in the nation, re gardless of where the funds are de posited, now are being developed and are likely to be in use in the next few years. They will be based on ad vanced communication technologies, including satellite relays, video cable, fiber optics and cellular radio. Banks, savings and loan associa tions, and credit unions probably will concentrate on processing transactions and place less emphasis on gathering deposits and providing financing. In the future, branches will be dominated by a variety of ma chines, with institutional personnel serving more of an advisory role than actually handling transactions. Many financial services will be delivered to the customer at a convenient loca tion, possibly on their business or home terminals, with little need for visiting a service provider's office. Hard questions The rapid transformation of the struc ture of.the financial services industry raises significant questions for Con gress about whether much of present public policy will be relevant and ap propriate for an increasingly auto-mated industry. Although fundamental policy objectives, such as fostering institutional stability and integrity or protecting consumers, may remain the same as in the past, the focus of future regulation may well be different. Policies that assume _a specific structure of the industry or service mix seem to be particularly vulnera ble to unanticipated effects when new technologies are introduced. For example, th~ assumption that only banks would take deposits and, thus, need regulation to protect depositors was undermined when firms other than banks used technology to offer similar services such as money mar ket accounts. Changes in the financial service in dustry will both benefit consumers and create problems for them. New delivery systems are designed to be more convenient, but consumers will have to be better informed to under stand and to choose among the wider range of available options and ser vices. Because financial service providers now can use price as an instrument (or competition, more and more services will be priced explicitly. Customers mtlY be offered an increasing range of choice and pay only for services used. Though consumers may not per ceive the differences between the of ferings of various financial service providers, the existing legal and reg ulatory structure does not always cover the activities of non-traditional providers. These unregulated ser vices often do not provide the same protections to consumers. Public policy issues stemming from the changing nature of the finan cial services industry involve access to services, system security, privacy and effects of fundamental changes now underway in the telecommunica tions industry. Despite the broader choices avrul Continued on page /90 153

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TELEPHONY CHICAGO, ILL. w. 36,111 1 OCT 1984 .. ,, .... .. ;.. ..... ----Continued from page 153 able for most consumers, some con-' sumers may find their options more constrained. For example, pressures for electronically transmitting pay rolls directly into a deposit account and the increasing role of the credit card as evidence of a person's finan cial responsibility are making it diffi. cult for individuals to avoid interaction with a financial service institu tion. Yet some people prefer not to deal with financial institutions altogether, and others have not been accepted as customers. Lack of access to some electronic financial services may im plicitly limit or deny access to other goods and services. Over the long run, guarnnteed access to some minimal level offinancial services may be essential for all people. Increasing use of electronic sys tems for delivering financial services i heightens potential threats to indivi dual privacy. Existing law provides some protection from intrusion on fi nancial data by the federal govern ment, but virtually none from the use of this information by states and local governments or private parties and I organizations. In addition, the pri. vacy policies of some other countries are more stringent than those of the United States. Restrictions on inter national transmission of data could lead to problems for American finan cial service firms doing business overseas. Recognition of the problems of systern security and integrity is becom. ing more widespread. It is clear'iliat providers of financial services have become so heavily dependent upon information processing and telecommunication technologies that the failure of automated systems under some circumstances could be very serious. However, the true magnitude of security problems is not known and additional information is needed before public policy alter natives are developed. 0 Co11ie.\ of till! report. "EJJec:ts of ht(ormt1tio11 Teclmology of/ Fi11t111cial Seriic:es Svstems," are maile1ble to the pubii<: at the U.S. Govemment Printing Office (GPO), Superintendent of Documents, Washington, D.C. 20402. The GPO stoc-k number is 052.()()3-0096/-7. <."opiesfor Congressional use may be obtained by calling the OT A publi:rhinR office at 4-8996.

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C0!'.1:!-':.; r:::~"./~!:: .. D FRAMIIJ! .1Ar,1. ;y;1t YI. : v~.; JU Study covers DP impact on banks-WASHINGTON, D.C. Computers and communications technology are fostering rapid and dramatic change in the financial services industry, but a period of stability can be expected, according to a recently released con gressional report. The report, "The Effects of Infor mation Technology on Financial Service Systems," was issued by th.J2t; fiffi o~echnolop; Assessment, wichonns. research for congressional committees drafting legislation. ; Congress has been struggling to re: write banking laws to reflect the shifting roles of banks in light of competing services being offered by brokerage houses, credit card con cerns and the _savings and loan indus try. Main"8Cluaion" Themain''conclusion of the report was that information processing technology has already caused rapid change; such -as making it possible for banks; to handle 37 billion checks annually' ''tor credit card companies to process mote than 3.5 billion credit carcJ drafts and fpr brokerage houses to_ 'n,,gtster more than 30 bil lion securities trades annually. However, the report noted, "Rapid and dramatic change in the financial service industry will not persist in definitely. There will be a period of stabilization, probably over the com ing decade." The major change the report pre dicted was the offering of new finan cial services by a wider variety of providers such as grocery stores and other traditional retail outlets that accept cash payments. See REPORT page 121 ----:

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: .;: i~ <~l .. .~ :~:{~ ~l ~~1~!} ff}(~ ~EPQRJ,..lrompqefl2 =;f :fie~~~-~ .. -~-.PQ~r con-wi~h~n!i;,':,':t~~!i:{;the largest / The report said the principal influtained in large m~frames, the re. banks and data processing services ence information p~ocessl.ng and tele-;~,.po~. predicted. ~. "'.' -~1';lainframes with harc;iware and software already communications .. technology,,. will :,wjlh~; .needed 1ippori' appJica.. in' place are actively maintaining pro have on services will tome in the con-don$ such as imag ~ssi:ilg for se-cessing of large numbers of financia! nection between processing; net.curity' checks art~-0:;'ieice-initiated -transactions. Most banks' check pro works, such as automated teller ma;. payment applicati
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' ........... '!- .. .. ~ ,., ,. ._. ) __ ... --~-' FLORENCE.AL TIMES DAILY. D. 28,014 SUN. 29,455 SEP q 1984 Bl(R(!ELU:'S .. -~ ., ....... ~li()pp4Ig at home .,.,_ ...... A ccording to recent studies by the Q,ggrrpiMi! Office of ,, TffllookJr Nnsm economic development efforts ~especially high tedu;iology 4evelopment-standsmoreoi a ehanceofb8ing_~ifthey are iutiatalandim~locaJbr. : Qbvjously, but a report by the group also found that tbefoDowing factors oouJd contribute.to efflcimf ~mdefbts:'~' developmentstra--and bnproved Jlnb.between~ Jocal ~andbusmess--. .~.: .-':. 'l!"" ~ o---I ,. OTA pointed out that-state and local ,. eeonomic clevelopmentpoUcies are at ~=rJ:,.has_ ) .ium e:91 -,-~ti:ttoamore ... .. -. '-i'-!~f;, __ __ ._., ~-. ...:-.u. d._...,;;;,: ., .. .-~;;...;.~~ .. ~1:: .. '.;:~>;.~:" -~--____ _..., ., ... ..... : Tbenetresultsoftboaeeffort.&.are:t:.--'. unproved Jinks amcng the ftnanelaJ;' pdemic and business communiti,es: Increased entrepreneursbi; and an Overall improvement in the sdentiflc aiil~baseoflocal ecaaomies.. ._;., ... : 'lbose findings c:oncurwith much of what bas been happening lately in the Shoals. : -~ "souklearcbmg" for the past couple of years, it appears that serious .. efbtsarebegimring to take p1ace for 4 approach to development in :=-~~~by )~. trea offic:ials bas been OD improving tlie relationships that are mentioned in fhe OTA report. : ~yearsofdrifting, it ~~~SboaJsis ma path that Could take it to prosperity.

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ENERGY STAMFORD CONN. 5 Tl. A YEAR 5,000 FALL 1984 puqHfrl=ID Environmental Protection Must Continue in the Federal Coal Leasing Program The basic framework of the Federal coal leasing program -the legisla tive mandates and the concept of a tiered structure of land use planning, activity planning, and mine permitting -is still workable and capable of ensuring environmental protection, according to the Congressional OtfJst!,_9.f ~'!_notoSJH...8.SM:URUent. ttowever, recent policy shifts haue in creased the risk of adDerse environmental impacts. Following a decade of public debate, consensus was reached In 1979 on a Federal coal leasing program considered adequate to ensure protection or the environment upon developmenl of leased tracts. The basic framework of that program-the legislative man dates and the concept of a tiered struc ture of land uS4! planning, activity plan ning, and mine permtlting-are still workable and capable of ensuring en\11ronmental protection. However, 1982 shifts In the policy underlying the leas ing program-as evidenced by changes In the Implementing regula tions-have shaken that consensus. While the Congressional Office of Technology Asseument did not dis cover any ftfatal Rawsw that would ab solutely preclude mining on recently leaoed tracts, It concluded that the re cent policy changes very likely have raised the cost and difficulty of ensur Ing en\llronmental compatibility, and have Increased the risk of adverse en \llronmental Impacts should those tracts be developed. As a conse quence, public conftdence In the en\11 ronmental soundness of the Federal leasing program has decreased. The planning processes during which tracts are continuously evalu ated for their acceptability for leasing have become too unpredictable and unsystematic lo assure compliance with the environmental mandate. There are two basic aspects of the re cent policy and program changes that contributed to this unpredictability. First, the high leasing rates-the large quantily of coal to be offered for lease combined with lnftexlble lease sale schedules-of the past three years taxed the resources of the Bureau of Land Management (BlM) beyond the point where they could adequately as sess the acceptability of the tracts pro posed to be offered. Even without comt ~,.,,p,.,d fJ,,,n I n,'4,.mm,ntul #"rt1tf',ti10n ;11 ,;,,.. ,, ,i,,.,I <.,tal l ..... si"11' P.-nqmm. tlffi, ,,1 r .. ,-tmul"tJ\ -\.,..,,.,._ m"of.M.tv:I0.1lffl'1 pressed planning and analysis sched ules, BLM's assessment capability al ready wa, taxed by field personnel ro tations and turnovers, which resulted In a loss of nstitutlonal memoryw and contributed to inadequate data and analyses. Consequently, decisions about acceptability have been deferred past the land use and early activity planning stages, where they are scheduled to be made, to the Secretarial de cision or mine permitting stage. Tracts have been canled forward to the lease offering without adequate data and analyses to make a fulli, informed decl slon about their environmental com patlbtllty. Decision defenals also have led to overuse of lease stipulations (conditions placed on a lease) to ad dress uncertainties about impact mill gallon requirements. In some Instances, tracts were removed prior to sale by mechanisms that were unre lated to the leasing process. Further, the quality and quantity of data and analyses vary widely among regions, among tracts within a region, and be tween sales within a region (Table l). Second, cbanges In prO!Jfam regula llons in 1982 reduced the effectiveness of the environmental protection mea sures that contributed to the consen sus on the 1979 Federal coal leasing program. The 1982 regulations no longer require-prior lo the environ mental Impact statement-the use of a threshold" concept for determining whether potential cumulative impacts are severe enough to wanant dropping tracts from further consideration for leasing. In addition, most regulatory stan dards for the adequacy of data and analyses were eliminated, adding lo the uncertainty about the acceptability of proposed tracts. Preparation of Re source Management Plans (required under the Federal land Polley and Management Act of 1976 and the Fed eral Coal leasing Amendments Act of 1976) was given lower priority when tbe 1984 deadline for their completion was eliminated, allowing indefinite reliance on existing land use plans pre pared under earlier legislative man dates, and updated or amended to meet the 1976 requirements. The lat ter do not constitute the sort of fresh start" comprehensive land use plan nlng en\llsloned In the current statu tory framework. Their continued use Increases the risk of adverse environ mental Impacts occurring If a leased tract Is developed, and adds to the per ception that BLM data and analyses have been Inadequate to support plan ning and leasing decision. PTosr Improvements An environmentally (and economic ally) sound leasing program is an Im portant part of the Nation's energy fu. lure and of public land management policy. Unless reasonable public ex pectations about soundness" are sat islled, however, an effective and pre dlctable Federal coal leasing program ls not likely. The recent actions taken by the De partment of the Interior to review the leasing program are a positive step toward decreasing environmental risk and regaining the public consensus about the soundness of the program, and priority should be given to their rapid completion and Implementation. However. there are a number of other measures identified by OTA that also can help to ensure environmental pro tection and compliance with the exist Ing statutory mandates, reduce the environ~ental risk of leasing decisions, maintain a predictable and stable leas ing process, and restore public confidence in the environmental soundness of the leasing program. energy Fall Issue/ 1984

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l.011Jer but steady leasing rates would make the land area that has to be evaluated for coal leasing in a given period of time more manageable, re duce the number of tracts to be offered at one time and therefore the probabil ity that environmentally sensitive tracts would be leased, and allow all participants in leasing, including the industry and affected communities, to plan more effectively for leasing activ ities. Decentralbilng declalonmalting autlaority on tracts and tonnages to be offered and on what schedule to the Regional Coal Team or BLM State Office level, and reorganizing leasing regions to match State boundaries, would improve the sensitivity of leas ing decisions to State and local needs and priorities. lmproulag tfae effectiveness of pbllc participation through efforts to increase public awareness and un derstanding of, and involvement in, the planning and leasing process also could improve the environmental soundness of, and public confidence In, the leasing program. It is very important to accommodate the environmen tal and socioeconomic concerns of special interest groups such as Indian Tribes. States and communities, and farmers and ranchers when carrying out lease planning activities and eventual mine development. Completion of adequate Re source Management Plans by BLM (and the Forest Service) would ensure that comprehensive areal land use planning is completed before activity planning for a lease sale and is adequate to support informed decisions on tract acceptability for leasing. It also would help ensure that preliminary cumulative impact assessments are in corporated in general land use plan ning decisions. In this context, it is important that BLM planning be coordinated more closely with that of the Forest Service and other federal agencies, and with State and local plans, to ensure that coal leasing does not undermine the goals of other pro grams. The data and analyses that support planning and leasing decisions also must be improved before environmental risk can be reduced and public confidence restored. Compila tion of a comprehensive data base, evaluation of the amount of data and analysis needed at each decision stage, and expansion of ways to use data and analyses from industry and other participants in leasing are some ways such an improvement could occur without significant increases In BLM resources. Continued research on mitigation and reclamation techFigure 1 Approximate Overlap Between Coal L-sing Regions, National Forests and Other Special Federal Management Areas c:J Coat teasing regions fa .-~;:;:-) National toresl lands E:;::::::::J Other speciaJ Fedel al areas (National partcs. recreation areas, grasstandsl nlques and on the use of the threshold concept for cumulative impact analy sis also would make planning more ef fective. In addition, greater encourage ment and incentives for experienced, qualified personnel to remain in the field could significantly improve the quality of data and analyses. Gldellnes and standards for tlae adequacy of pre-sale data and analyses at all stages in the leasing process should be incorporated in the program regulations. Regulatory stan dards and guidelines would be more predictable, would provide better guid ance, and would be more intelligible and accessible to other participants in the leasing process than the current guidelines, which reside primarily in BLM internal memoranda. A workable threshold concept for estimating cumulative im pacts should be developed and Included in the regulatory requirements for evaluating tract acceptability dur Ing land-use planning and for tract ranking, as well as in the environmen tal impact statement. Policies and procedures /or e/ fectlvely Ing lease exchanges to protect environmentally sensitive tracts should be established. It is nec essary to clarify when such exchanges, which can be a useful tool for reducing environmental risk, can be under taken. Policies and procedures for leasing coal lands where tfae /ed eral government does not own or manage the surface (split estate lands) need to be evaluated to resolve the uncertainty about the effectivenes of land use and pre-lease environmen tal protections on such lands, and to ensure that BLM procedures balance public concerns and surface owner in terests adequately. Procedures /or enuironmental assessment of Preference Right Lease Applications need to be eval uated to determine if they provide ade quate environmental protection and they are consistent across regions. It is Important that the Department of the Interior give priority to estab lishing an effective, predictable, and stable leasing program that reduces the environmental (and economic) risk of leasing decisions, and that allows the industry to plan confidently for ac quisition of coal reserves, the environ mental community to be confident that leasing decisions will be in accord with legislative requirements, and, most importantly, the owners of the resources-the citizens of the U.S.-to be confident that federal lands are managed well. D 13

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I I -_,,. .. -. ~... _,. JGIJIINAL Lif HJHi:STHY BETliESD/\. MO MOIi f Ill. Y '.;'l.1100 [ New INFOllMATION I ~In\/ g WDot:> VS Can the u.S.,~ompete? U.S. COMPETITIVENESS AND TECHNOLOGY. U.S. Congress Ojff-ce. of Technology Assessmen.,t_. ix + 2$0 p., illus. OTA-ITE-210. 1983. Froe. The U.S. Senate Committee on Ap propriations asked its Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) to evaluate technologies for growing and using U.S. timber and to determine the cur rent and potential role of wood in the U.S. economy. OTA responded by seek ing answers to the following questions. 1. What is the status of technology for increasing the efficiency of wood use in manufacturing, for increasing forest productivity, and for recovering a larger proportion of timber during harvest? 2. Do USDA Forest Service projec tions of demand and supply accurately account for likely improvements in technology? 3. What is the status of worldwide timber demand and supply, and how will global conditions affect U.S. wood markets? The main conclusion of this timely report is that the United States could probably greatly expand its forest products trade with the world over the next decade and become a net exporter of solid wood and paper products. Although the United States has been a net importer of wood over the past 30 years, exports have grown faster than imports and in recent years the trade deficit has narrowed. Several indepen dent estimates suggest that global de mands for many wood products are growing rapidly; the most promising trade opportunities for U.S. producers are in paper products. The best out lets for U.S. wood products will be in western Europe and Japan. [n six chapters the report develops bases for the following conclusions: The U.S. forest products industry has distinct advantages over foreign competition. It is the most productive and efficient in the world, and it is based on a vast and productive domes tic forest resource. The United States and Canada will ~/ remain the world's most important trading partners in wood products. Continued U.S. imports of newsprint and ~ow-quality lumber could allow U.S. producers to export linerboard, paper, and high-quality lumber where the United States' competitive position is strongest. Although the responsibility for de veloping foreign _markets rest:; with in dustry, government action is needed to reduce trade barriers, including non tariff barriers that diminish competi tiveness overseas. Success in foreign markets also depends on potential buyers viewing p.s. producers as reli able suppliers. Too often they have turned to foreign markets only when domestic demand was falling. Past concerns about a domestic timber shortage no longer seem justified. Past estimates of future timber de mands, especially for housing, have probably been too high. At the same time; the effects of more intensive timber management and adoption of new harvesting and wood utilization tech nologies (which can use more hardwood and residues) have allowed wood sup plies to exceed estimates of their abil ity to meet demand. OTA believes that if the trend toward more intensive management continues, domestic needs probably can be met without large price increases. A doubling of timber output over the long.term appears pos sible through adoption of intensive management techniques such as ap plied genetics, fertilization, and better harvesting systems. However, an investment of $10 to $15 billion is re quired over the next 30 to 50 years to reach this potential. Several factors could constrain future timber supply. These. include a shrinking forest land base. lack of management for timber production on private nonindustrial forestland, and continuation of increased use of fuelwood, especially if fuelwood removals compete with timber removals. Commercial timber production is only one of many uses for forestland. Although intensive forest management is required if future dom,stic needs are to be met and foreign markets developed, OTA recognizes that forests must also be managed for other values. Intensive management may result in increased soil loss, changed wildlife habitat, reduced water quality, and lower soil productivity. Additional re search is needed on the environmental effects of intensive forest management in order to understand them and to select among trade-offs. Major changes in federal programs and policies are probably not required to ensure that forest-products needs will be met. However, OTA lists five kinds of governmental action that could do much to increase industry's compet itive position: Establish national objectives for management and use of U.S. forest resources (not presently provided by the Resources Plan ning Act). Encourage research, devel opment, and transfer of man agement and utilization tech nologies. Increase the ability of U.S. forest-products companies to compete in foreign markets. Improve the quality of infor mation available in order to formulate forest policy. It is most important to obtain up-to-date forest survey information and to reconcile divergent forest re source estimates by the USDA Forest Service and the USDA Soil Conservation Service. Improve systems for identi fying timber management needs. OTA suggests several congressional strategies, which range from disman tling the Forest Service's current planning system and returning to de centralized management, to requiring more federal support in expanding U.S. timber potential and developing overseas markets. This last strategy, which OTA favors, would work to improve RPA planning by upgrading re source information available in order to formulate a wider range of program alternatives, aid the forest products industry to build overseas markets, -:...,(

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', and expand U.S. timber supplies. The federal government would increase support for research, give greater technical assistance to private forest ry, and intensify management of fed eral commercial forestlands. The OTA report is a scholarly and well-documented analysis of major problems. These problems must be ad dressed if the United States is to meet future domestic demand for wood prod ucts without significant increases in timber prices, and if overseas markets are to be developed. If anything, the report probably un derestimates the savings of softwood timber that are possible with wide adoption of new harvesting and utiliza tion technology. Recent analyses show that large savings are possible in the long term if new technologies are adopted by industry. I ~,-INFORMATION I Also, government cannot provide a panacea for industry's marketing ills. In order to develop foreign markets, U.S. producers of lumber and panel products will probably need to make a greater effort to meet overseas per formance standards-rather than try to change foreign construction meth ods to fit U.S. manufacturing stan dards. -I.I. Holland Urbana, IL 61801 'fropics Primer TECHNOLOGIES TO SUSTAIN TROPICAL FOREST RESOURCES. U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment. 344 p. U.S. Government Printing Office, Superintendent of Documents, Washington, DC 20402. GPO stock no. 052-003-00943-9. 1984. $10. (Summary available free from OTA, Washington, DC 20510.) This document is the result of a two-year study of the tropical forest resource and efforts to manage it on a sustained-yield basis. The purpose of the study was to provide options to Congress in support of tropical forest resource management. The intended audience was nonforesters, persons not expert in tropical land managementspecitically, members of the Congress and their staffs. The report will, however, prove useful to a much wider audience. Foresters not familiar with the tropics will find it a good primer. The. report is well written and is a valuable contribution, given its pur pose and the intended audience. It offers little new information, but pre sents a good review of the current -------------------------------, situation. Some information is pre-SOUTHERN JOURNAL ~OF,t APPLIED FORESTRY Institutions Individuals SAF Memhers U.S. $32 __ $22 __ $15 __ Foreign $37 __ $27 __ $20 __ Check appropriate space. Number of copies ordered __ Amount due $ __ Make check 11ayable to SAF-5/AF PLEASE PRIN1' name address city stall! Subscribe Now zip SAi' Member _Yes __No I i I I I I I S,\f ID No. Return Order Form with payment to: Society of American Foresters 5400 Grosvenor Lane Bethesda, MD 20814 sented in new ways, leading to original conclusions. Other reports are more brief and to the point (for example, the report by the Inter-Agency Task Force on Tropical Forests), but the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) report offers valuable background material lacking in other, more concise reports. OTA relied heavily on numerous experts for this study, including several named specifically and many referred to anonymously. In most cases the authors made good use of this material and melded it into a readable, coher ent package. Authors of commissioned papers, however, may feel otherwise. After they spent a great deal of work, and after several editorial reviews, OTA made little apparent use of the papers. The flaws in the report are generally minor compared to its overall value. One flaw, however, is the failure to recognize and deal with the custom, in many tropical nations, that land not being used or managed in an obvious way is considered available for "improvement" (i.e., conversion). Another major error is the claim that the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has recently been

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increasing its funding of forestry pro jects. In fact, dollar amounts have gone up slightly but funding in real dollars has decreased. FA.O's forestry spend ing has dropped from 8.5 percent to 4 percent of the overall budget; the agency has been deemphasizing forestry in relation to other programs. The United States has been urging the FAO director-general to rectify this situation. The flaw of too much detail was overcome by publication of an adequate summary. Most readers will prefer the summary. The entire document and the summary would have benefited from final editing by tropical forestry experts. OT A is obviously suggesting that tropical forest management worldwide would be enhanced by more involve ment by appropriate U.S. agencies. However, most agencies have recently been reducing their programs rather than adding new ones. Presumably. few will heed the OTA message unless Congress provides funds specifically for tropical forestry. The idea of an agency cutting elsewhere to fund tropical forestry projects will not solve the problem. OTA lists 22 options for Congress to enhance tropical forest management worldwide. Many of them are excel lent; they include: authorize and fund an associate expert program. review incentives and disincentives to federal employees willing to take overseas as signments, fund the U.S. Man and the Biosphere Program, and designate and fund centers of excellence at the USDA Forest Service Institute of Tropical Forestry (Puerto Rico) and the Insti tute of Pacific [slancls Forestry ( Hawaii). Ob,iously, federal agencies in the United States cannot manage tropical forests in other nations: that must be done locally. But U.S. technical sup port can make the difference between failure and success. If Congress takes OTA.'s options seriously, it can provide an important incentive to resolving the issues of rural po\'erty and natural re source management in de,eloping ttop-I MwLvPoiutATION I ical nations. The OTA report serves to explain why such action might well be in the best interest of the United States. -J.L. Whitmo1e International Forestry Sta(( USDA Forest Service Washington, DC t00/.1

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j .1 A grayer world is in the making ~}: / The youth boom that has been moving through our population over recent years is going to play out i~ role in an elderly boom over the next 40years, the congressional Office of. Technology AsSIJlmlt reports. .. ti The _ag~~ reports:."'t P_OOple over;~ now outn~be~~teen--\m .th~ U~@States and~ byps, the)'atio.will mcrease to 2 to 1. The'elderly population in theU~S. has grown from:14 percent of the total iii 1900 to more Uiaii 11.5-ml~ and willrlse to 14 percent by.?010, it ri~. Elderly people now num_ber 26 million, but will increaseto 39million by 2019, a~: cording to.the survey whi_ch attributes the -i changes to advances in technology ~nd .b,,ealth developments lengthening lifespans and lowering mortality rates_. "Death rates fell more sharply dunng '.' the past 15 years than during any like :. period in U.S. history," the study says, ,noting that more than half of the improve ;ment in life expectancy fo~ the elderly ,tnce 1950 has occurred m the past ( de. Four-fifths of all babies born this ~r can expect to five to age 651 com? with only twerfifths born in 1900. .,:: : ~qgrap~c-.. chllng~ bas gr:8t ce:to~1health
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'' .!l!t!1.lfE.l..l.FS 'f'~. ~7::, J \y_&L\ (Report s~ys healin gainskey to longevity of older Ai;nericans Associated Press since 1900, chang~ whose pace is between 1980 and 200Q, the report WASHINGTON Americans over accentuating,''therj!port,'Technology said. an~ Aging in America,' said. It said the 65 .now outnumber teen-agers because "technological revolut~n has major ''Potential changes incl.ude changes of major health gains and declining implications for all aspects of inthestructureoffamUies,~oreolder fertlitiyratestbat"aged"theU.S.popsocie.ty." persons living alone (fout-fifths of ulation, a congressional agency says. them women);moreol~erworkers,.and The office. of Technolog Assess:Atmostfour-fifthSofallbabiesbom agrowirigmarketforset'Vicesandpro--. megt p;oofted yesterday mat Sy ffie. thlsyeatca11expec~tolivetoageG5,'' it ducts to the elderly," it said. "In genyear 2025, there. will be two elc;lerly sat~. "Only two-fifthS:of babies born in eral\ this profound demographic Americans for every teen-ager. 1900 could expect ~do so: tr:anstormation is likely to change both "The'elderly population has grown Recenttechnologtcaladvanceshave the resoui-ces older persons have to fromfourpercentofthetotalin 1900te helped reduce mortalit~ rates among. offer and the allocation of resotirces more than U.5 percent now: the theelderW offered to thern: agency said in a report. In the last 15 year.,s;. ~-~. arp reductions It-'.said changes that are Hkely to "The number of th~ over~5 is 'pro-in,,de!lth rates fronr~art disease Jnd result include: jetted to grow from today's 26 million stroke have caus~;-mortality. rates. Chronic illnesses among-_: the to itn estimated. 39.3 million by 2010.. amongthe elderly to.drop. More than elderly will be more common: when they will constitute almost H half of the improvem.e11t in life expec0 The need for long-term care for pe~cent of t~e 11ation's ~p,ulation," it ,taneysin~l950hasoccure~linthelast -chro~ic conditions will grow, as wiU said. '. deca' d' e.Ul~.re'po, ~e' '.' ( ,'' thed~than~fot.treatme,nt.ofae11teill~ More sigmficanuy, between :010 ~enLqiortatit,y,:rate;,1 "mdi~te nesses: and 2030. the older populaUon is th1,.H~is9:cceleratingpaceofimprove Significantchangesfreexpected expeti.ed to increase by more than 12 m~nt in l,if_e expectancy at older ages in family structure. living arrange million, when the first wave of the will continue for the forseeable ments and the. housing for the baby-boom generation becomes the future," it said: ;, elderly. elderly boom of the fut1n. .. The media~ age;,_ot ~11. Americans. More older people willUve alone, ~''.l'hese demograp~ic trends are due which ro~ only.0.6 yea~ between 1960 and peopJe ov,~r55 ~ill be tjloreli~ely in large part to t~hnological ~hariges and 1980.1sex~t~tqriseby3.3 year:s. to have a very-<1la parent.still aliv.i!.

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RADIO CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM DATE TIME STATION LOCATION PROGRAM /201) 9~J,?.ff((1(/ f;} f',, ,_ {.:, ;1,'(_) 1.: I' ,;c October 2, 1984 5:00-5:05 PM MT ABC Direction News Bob Schmidt, anchor: ACCOUNT NUMBER 6297 Y A prediction of long life in the latest report from the Congressional 9JJ_;i,ce of Technology Assessment. It says Americans sixty-five years old or older, now outnumber teenagers for the first time. By the year 2025, it says the margin will be two to one. M9re from ABC's Tony Sargent. Sargent: The report says the elderly should be encouraged to develop habits and lifestyles that will help keep them healthier into the very old age that more Americans are reaching these days. The study also says, more needs to be done about the side effects of drugs, especially when more than one medication is taken at the same time. The study points out, better designed living spaces would minimize the help older persons need, and it says, those who don't need full-time nursing or medical help often could be cared for more affordably outside hospitals, in a range of facilities including adult day care centers. Tony Sargent, ABC News, Washington. October 3, 1984 12:00 Noon-12:30 PM WRC-TV(NBC) Channel Four Washington Channel Four News Pat Lawson, co-anchor: ACCOUNT NUMBER 6297 Y Americans over sixty-five now out-number teen-agers in this country, mainly because of major health gains and declining fertility rates. The Congressional Office of Technology Assessment reports that by the year 2025 there will be two elderly Americans for every one teen-ager. Recent technological advances have apparently helped reduce mortality rates among the elderly. The report says almost four-fifths of all babies born this year can expect to live to the age of sixty-five, Contrast--in 1900 only two-fifths of the babies born could expect to live that long.

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_______________ congressional clearinghouse on the future TOMORROW'S AUSTRALIA Tomorrow's Australia. a marketplace study of Ogilvy and Mather's Futures Division, asked a cross section of Australians their attitudes toward home, work, government, and what the aims of the country should be for the next ten years. "Understanding what people want to change and what they hope will stay the same is vital for a decisionmaker," according to the study. It is important to understand current values aqd aims because they are key determinants of behavior; Australians are generally dissatisfied with today and are looking for changes. They see first priority as solving unemployment problems and also want more federal spending on pensions, benefits, and other allowances, especially more assistance for the needy and aged. Australians are unwilling to accept a lower standard of living to benefit the poorer nations of the world. Compared withthe Americans, the British, the French, the West Germans and the Japanese, Australians scored highest in confidence for major companies, but varied in level of confidence for all institutions. Americans have the greatest confidence in all their institutions, businesses and others combined. In a question on attitudes toward work, Australians and Americans claimed greater pride in work, 83 percent and 84 percent respectively, than West Germans with 15 percent and France with 13 percent. For Australians, having a job that is interesting, that provides a sense of ac:hievement, and that has pleasant co-workers is more important than a job with good pay. Of all nationalities surveyed, Australians consider job pay least significant. The relatively unimportant aspects of a job are being one's own boss, having very little pressure, and having a boss of the same sex. The first edition of Tomorrow's Australia is an international comparison on values in relation to family, home, work, religion, and leisure. The second focuses on attitudes toward large companies, wealth generation, new technology and R&D. Further editions will look at factors behind optimism and pessimism and the differences between the female and male market perceptions. For more information contact Colin Benjamin, Futures Division, Ogilvy & Mather Pty. Ltd., 566 St. Kilda Road, Melbourne, 3004; (03) 51 8521. pl' COMPUTERS FOR HOME HEALTH CARE A computer-smart baby boom generation will find information technologies playing an increasingly important role in their home health care. A new OTA report, "T~chnology aoct Aging ir. America" looks at ways in which technology can assist the elderly "maintain their independence and enhance their quality of life." Some examples follow. Computer-assisted health instruction. Home instruction can be provided to the elderly with specific needs, for example, diabetics or stroke recovery patients. In addition, computers can regulate home heating and cooling, maintain security, and remind the elderly to take medication. -Computer-assisted monitoring of at-home patients. Using microprocessors and sensors, it may be possible for health care providers to remain in the hospital and measure body temperature, blood pressure and pulse rates of patients, living at home. In addition, such a system may include voice chips for providing self-care instructions. Already, prosthetic te~bnologies have been developed to assist those elderly suffering from chronic disease and severe disabilities. Such devices include voice-sensit~ve robots to serve the needs of paralyzed persons and programmable wheelchairs. With over half a million elderly confined to bed and another three million requiring assistance in performing day-to-day tasks, there is tremendous potential for information technology in elderly self-care. Currently the cost of home computers and software prevents these aids from becoming more popular. Some elderly may find it difficult to work with systems designed for regular family use. However, with trial computer technologies introduced in nursing homes and with continuing research, technology may soon play an important role in self-care. Summary copies of "Technology and Aging in America" are available at no charge from OTA publications, 600 Pennsylvania Avenue SE, Washington, DC 20510; (202) 224-8996.

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Dallas Times Herald DALLAS, TEXAS D. 269,410 SUM. !56,751 OCT 14 1984 8UIIJVLL'S -r-, t V ---...._J 8,_o{~ll' is growiflg grayer, EOITOl11Aa 1. '<./Few problems promise to bedevil that sufficed whel) only a tiny fraction of f American society more in the next half-centhe population was old won't work :tury than old age. That point is made abun~ymore. ... aantly clear a new report by ;ihe Con-. Society, in fact, may have to stop treat-1 gressional Office of Technology Assessment.; older people as a special group .. Certain-The -.,. that the elIf will ljave to -both.the prividerly population is growing at a inuch l they lreceive and the restrictions they faster pace than the general populati011. f The (:ountry will be unable to afford .People 65 or older now ~t :tor 12 .. per-+eeded. ~ty. ~older Pf:OPle~s self-_ ,.:cent of all Americans, c:omparedwi~ Qlili4 ~-. wffl:.d~,~ equality of. treat-_ --t and ~ty percent at the. beginning ~-.::this .cen~. ,. Defusing this dertlographic time bomb And as medical advances allow people to i be Bu if ,live longer and the "baby boom't generatk>n t ~.:'~:be sure. ~-1tums gra this f &-....: ..... wm~.....,,;,.. .. p :::off. ~-aboul:! the problem until y. aging O &M~f'iG' "ne,ct' !,c,iti.iry ,~t\im!tig;toofa~~u tinue probably into the ~~-~a'.iryf: f" :, -~-,f' t-,~:,:,.(, \.,t~.-~; '-The agency says that the ~cierly;,rill:com1 ,pd~ -i~}~ ,:~~~"-'<.-.,, ,-; .. 14 t f the pulatian b ;~Uf ~ ~Oa,y;d10 as not 'to.tplace -~. -_pnse pen.-en' 0 po y .... .. ....1 ..... .. .,_. . :.-...--1-.. i ue -....--~ on anyone... im~lication of the --~~-_ '.;: Fortunately~the people who.,,will be :~port _is obvious: The elderly's ~-. m, .aff~'by,~pc,pulati01:1.shkt~to'tionate numbers ~ten to strain, if not :))Ul1' a4ults have :begun~~~ ,exhaust, public pnvate resources in ~e inti> positions of power and infll..ience,.;~y ,. ~!!::,~--~ 8'>1De~~ :!~~ t:i :'1 :=v::::f:f;, rtions isi~~.~voided. ti~ to the problem. But they aJso must Traditionally a nation strongly orientdevelop the will. -~ toward,:~~ the Unite_d ~tates will t~ ':fh~re(is little tirn~ to waste. A3 the need new pnnoples and gwdelmes about congress1orial report pomts out, each day I ~ow an older society governs itself. Ideas the country is getting older. \ -..... '~-..

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REAL ESTATE MAGAZINE CHICAGO, IL w. 10,500 Oc.,l '] 1984 l 8Ulf./(EJ.U"S \ Capitol Co,nmenl Select Committee on Aging. If expected demographic trends continue, the aging of the population will accelerate and the older segment will have notably larger proportions in the highest age groups-7 5 to 84 and over 85. OTA defines technology broadly as both a collection of sophisticated devices or simple gadgeis, and the development of knowledge or an organizational system. Thus, technology can range from CAT scanners and stair safety treads to bio-medical research and longterm care delivery systems. By EDWIN L. STOLL But what are the specific challenges Washington-Scrambling in_ early and possibilities seen for the real estate October to wind up their current and building industry in this far session so they could head home to beat ranging report? the bushes for votes, members of the Equity-based financing Congress, ensnarled in money bills, "Federal policy has concentrated on pork barrel amendments and major construction and subsidies for elderly policy disputes, played out one of their rental housing, but more attention is incomprehensible scenarios that even needed to coordinate community-based shut down most of the government for services with such housing programs," half a day. says OTA, a nonpartisan analytical Largely ignored in those final chaotic agency that serves the Congress. hours was the release of an important "New design standards for interiors summary report indicating that the of units occupied by the elderly can help Congress is finally becoming fully them remain self-sufficient. Low cost aware of the aging population and its modular construction technologies make challenge to the nation. Part of this retrofitting of existing units more report prepared by the Congressional feasible, especially for the construction Office of Technology Assessmei:t~ conof an accessory apartment within an tained broad-range implications for the existing single-family house. real estate and building industries. "Shared housing, residential care Basically, the report pointed out that facilities, and other housing options technology has been the major factor in could also be encouraged by federal the growth and increased longevity of policies. New forms of equity-based the population and can help mitigate financing that produce monthly income some of the negative impacts of aging. for the financially-pressed older home Older persons can remain vital and owner should receive further attention active for many years after normal by Congress." retirement age. National awareness Outnumbered teenagers Another evidenc.e of the mounting For the first time older persons national awareness of the elderly and outnumber teenagers in the United the need to address their requirements States, and by 2025 will outnumber was the recent publication of a helpful them by more than two to one, said brochure, Housing Options for Older OTA in the report released by Sen. Americans! by the American AssociaJohn Heinz (R-Pa.), chairman of the tion of Retired Persons. Senate Special Committee on Aging, This explodes the common concep a nd Rep. Edward R. Roybal tion held by some that when people (D-Calif.), chairman of the House retire, they move-or should. move. But .,. ,, ., -:. .. ~ .... ----,.-----------------,---.------. ,, ~. : .... :: ". -studies and census data refute the notion that America's older population is highly mobile. "A more accurate picture," according to Leo E. Baldwin, coordinator of housing programs for AARP, "is that older people change their living ar rangements only when their needs change, and as long as they're able, older people prefer to make adjustments within the home they already occupy. "Put simply, most older people want to stay put. They tell us they're reluctant to give up their homes of many years because they're comfortable in the neighborhood, secure in the knowledge that they're near familiar stores and dose friends. "However, 30% of older persons do move some time after they reach their 65th birthday. Yet only 3% buy or rent new homes, and only about 4% move out of the state in which they lived the day they reached 65." Living arrangements The brochure then goes on to spell out the pros and cons of staying put or moving and explains some of the living arrangements the elderly may want to consider, such as condominiums, retire ment communities, accessory apart ments a_nd ECHO housing. Some' 6f the points are of particular interest to those in the field of housing production: Construction of new retirement communities has slumped in recent years. It is predicted, however, that by the end of the decade they will represent one of the fastest growing segments of the nation's housing industry. An estimated 25% of older persons live in rental housing units. People who have been renters in earlier years tend to continue to rent, just as homeowners continue to prefer homeownership. However, especially after age 70, an increasing proportion of the elderly population finds that renting suits their needs. Anyone may obtain a copy of the brochure, Housing Options for Older Americans, at no cost by directing the request to AARP Fulfillment, Box 2400, Long Beach, Calif. 90801.

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ELECTRONIC NEWS NEW YORK, N. Y. w. 71,826 NOV 12 1984 ll!4rn,ug .. 'Telecommuting' Predicted By Congress Tech Office WASHINGTON (FNS) Greatly expanded computerized work-at-home opportunities for older workers are predicted in a new study by Congress' QWce of_ TecJmQ}9.8Y-~.me,nt (OTA). The analysis, "Technology and Aging in America," observes that the possibility of doing today's jobs in tomorrow's "electronic cottage," or computer-based office at home, may provide good prospects for older workers who want to work on a part-time or flexible basis and/or avoid daily travel to a workplac.e. Such work at home has also become known generically as "telecommuting." OTA cited projections indicating that by the year 2000, employ ment in service occupations will account for about 85 percent of all jobs. Jobs in manufacturing will have declined to about 11 percent of the total. Meanwhile, OTA pointed out, as technologies evolve, many jobs in declining industries are either being re placed by automation or disaPpearing. Jobs in the manufacturing, farming and private household service sectors, which have high proportions of older workers, are shrinking most rapidly. Workers age 45 and over pre sen tly may be particularly vulnerable to changes in the work force, OT A said. Many are employed in manufacturing, which is on the decline. Although there was said to be no direct evidence that significant numbers of older workers have been displaced by workplace tech nologies, "there is concem that future cohorts of older workers, now aged 35 to 45, will face such possibilities. Recent advances in medical technologies, computers and robotics, OT A reported .-.t,.::,,; e ieo to th~ ~elopment of new occupations from which older workers are likely to be excluded due to lack of appropriate skills. And, it is added, despite the prospect of using the "electronic cottage" to provide work at home, older workers will still have to compete with younger ones who may seek similar flexibility in their job arrangements. The continuing influx of women into the labor force also promises to intensify the competition for \"telecommuting." LLOYD SCHWARTZ ,,...

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AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY NEW YORK, N.Y. W.103,500 SEP 3 1984 Aerospace's Two-Way Street -FdtiJ'IJn~ 1. Civil Laurii:h~Se ices Chari9e U. S. Governmen ~:.Role Washington-The emergence of foreign and domestic launch services means the U.S. government will have to reassess its role in providing such services to com mercial users, the congressional Office of Technology Assessment has saTcl. --The u. s. can favor either the shuttle or private expendable launch vehicles to meet foreign competition, the OT A said, but a choice will have to be made because demand is unlikely to increase enough in this decade to realize the commercial suc cess of both. It called Administration poli cy ambiguous. Growth of a competitive U.S. expend able launch vehicle business probably would requirci limiting the shuttle mainly to government payloads or substantially increasing its prices for commercial ones, the OTA said. Current shuttle prices decrease the chances for competitive private services, it said, although they allow the shuttle to compete with the European Space Agency Ariane "while earning some revenue and supporting other imt,brtant national space goals." \,_ It said Congress shoulcf'designate lead agencies to regulate pa~ular technol ogies as they mature toward commercial use in space because thei'.National Aero nautics and Space Admi,stration is not equipped either to choose :ipecific technol ogies for commercial exploitation or to foster new space industri~ These findings came from an OT A study released at a hearing of the House Science and Technology subcommittee on space science and applications. The study, which is titled International Cooperation and Competition in Civiliap Space Activities, was issued in summary form. It said two primary problems dominate organization and execution of U. S. civil ian space policy: There is no national consensus about long-term objectives. The political and economic dimen sions of space activity exceed the purview of any one government agency. Aviation Week & Space Technology, September 3, 1984 The OT A said that although President Reagan declared in mid~1983.that govern ment would facilitate commercial expend able launch vehicles (ELVs), he also called tbe0shuttle the primary government launch vehicle, available both to domestic and foreign commercial. use~. This would encourage open competition but "leaves the government-subsidized shuttle as the main competitor to the private sector's efforts to market ELV services," the OTA said. "If the demand for launch services were to increase dramatically, both kinds of vehicles might succesl!fully offer commercial launch services; but since a dramatic in crease seems unlikely in the 1980s, the United States must choose which course it intends to follow," the report said. It said agencies other than NASA should be given primary oversight respon sibility for particular technologies and that the Transportation Dept.'s designa tion as lead agency for private transporta tion services was a guide in this area. The U.S. is hampered in pursuing for eign policy objectives through cooperative space ventures, the OTA said, because re sponsibility is divided among four agen cies: the State and Commerce depart ments, NASA and the Federal Communi cations Commission. It said the State 229 Dept. haslittle~expertise,which~ .Administration,..J'the ~ .. \ ,: .. i: ,.._ ; have .te !;!11atged.,iftJte U.S. wants to might be at cress-~ and if le~ .. ;:s:!!~Addnu~~t";... ~eo~CJ'9,D&Utics and use Civilian space programs for more agti "gh be .. "':-. r-LUDW.A lvur mmerce Dept gressive pursuit of foreign policy interests. alon nu t n~ !<> Jurisdictionconflict was nothing compared with th; Full commercial use of space will retift':nflicts, Ray Williamson! of the OTA conflict between NASA and the Office of h'tes ed that such concern had not been a Management and B d t quire direct involvement of those agencies focus of the study He sai ~however, that "Now Co :a:e h versed in domestic commerce and regulas~ch probl~ l~! possibc~es new condi. resnnJlSib. ilitvn:.~..,..de. !owe comnstttut1onal ., tion, international 'trade and foreign af-taons em...--,,n ........ ,.,..com dtha""_..s1~-""""'-..,'e,'.~ ~-uch money fairs, ir"'wd:.....,~ ,. legisl~tio;;~te 11 ag~cies fo; :i;~ to to~ sf:t onbcomwhat_purposes," The director of the State Dept.'s Office particular technologies mi t theret1 be tha e su mtttee, "and of Advanced T~ology, O~o E. Eskin, advisable ... :1;:.. ore t t .~d of ISSUC really underlies a lot of told the subcommittee that his resources Another OT A official 1 Sharfm his. and ~pertise were being strengthened and said that underlying a l~t p,nflict w~:: ~harfman. also said there is no clear that mteragertcy units involved in civilian in the Executi'+'e Branch .. ve bee natt~nal policy agreed to by both the Exspace issU;~~~are functioning eft'ecti_vely.'~---agreements about how in.uch m"ont :ut1ve Branc~ an~ Congress "as to ~o_w Asked 1f the study had found evidence should be spent on the civilian space Y uch money .18 gomg to be spent on c1vtl-that the National Aeronautics and Space gram." ,. proran space act1v1ty over the next IO or 15 years." D Aviation Week & Space Technology, September 3, 1984 ...... ~,... _.,,,.. t 231 i I l

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:. ,. ~-~ : : ... ... $ECtlRlT'f MANAGEMENT WASHINGTON, D.C. MONTHLY 18,788 I ocT 1n4 Fairness, I Personnel Security, 8'. the Polygraph IN I 978, THE US SENATE SELECT COMMITTEE on Intelligence issued a report that con cluded "there has been a major failure on the part of government to take action in leak cases ... even where a leak clearly violated an existing statute and caused serious harm to national security." Since that time, there has been a growing con cern over personnel security programs within US government defense and in telligence organizations. Evaluation of this problem has created the impression among many security officers that, due to general changes in society and specific changes in the law regarding personal records and increased access to govern ment files, the traditional background in vestigation is no longer as effective as it once was. In response to these concerns, the Reagan administration issued Na tional Security Decision Directive 84 (NSDD-84), which in part proposed an expanded use of polygraph testing in per sonnel security investigations of persons holding and seeking high-level govern ment security clearances. The increased use of polygraph testing for personnel security in the defense and intelligence communities was supported by a 1980 Central Intelligence Agency study that found polygraph testing to be the most productive of all background investigation techniques. Nonetheless, there has been considerable public op position to increased polygraph testing of government employees. Representa tives of government employee organi zations have expressed concern, as have some members of Congress. The Wash ington press corps also voiced opposi tion, and several nationally syndicated columnists ridiculed the use of poly graph, depicting it as unfair and inef fective. This resistance to its use focused OCTOBER 1984 BY DONALD R. WARREN attention on polygraph testing and insti gated debate on its effectiveness, proper use, and accuracy. The House Commit tee on Government Operations held a hearing on the matter and requested the Congressional Qffk.e..ot:Ie..chnology As sessment (O'TA) to evaluate the accuracy orpolygrapntesting. OT A approached this task by review ing and assessing the available research literature on the validity of polygraph testing. Based on this evaluation, OTA concluded that while there is scientific evidence to support the validity of poly graph testing in specific issue criminal investigation testing, there is no scien tific evidence to establish the validity of polygraph testing in general screening investigations used for security clearance matters. OT A did not suggest there was evi dence to indicate personnel screening polygraph testing was not accurate, but simply that there was a lack of scientific evidence on this issue. OT A correctly recognized that the term "polygraph testing" actually refers to a considerable variety of interviewing and physiological recording procedures used to evaluate a person's truthfulness, and that these pro cedures are complex in nature. Due to the variety and complexity of testing pro cedures, the scientific validity of poly graph testing is very difficult to evaluate. At least partly as a result of this fact. there has been very little research on the use of polygraph testing for personnel security screening. OT A did not conduct any field or laboratory research program of its own, but based its conclusion on a review of the available literature and the advice of its consulting staff. As a result of this effort, OT A ex pressed concern to the House Committee on Government Operations that poly graph testing for personnel screening could incorrectly label a significant number of innocent persons as untruthful, resulting in unfair suspicions and the misdirection of government security resources while adversely affecting employee morale. In addition, it was suggested an increased use of polygraph testing could lead to a false confidence about security, and eventually US national interests would be seriously damaged by persons able to beat the polygraph test. The concern that polygraph testing would create a false sense of confidence regarding personnel security is a totally misplaced and unfounded fear. Poly graph's most ardent supporters never even dreamed personnel screening. by way of the polygraph would replace other per sonnel security measures. Rather, poly graph testing was intended to enhance other personnel security measures al ready in use. No knowledgeable security officer would ever consider polygraph testing as the total answer to a personnel security program. However, even if an untruthful person occasionally passes the polygraph screening, it would be foolish to eliminate what the 1980 CIA study labeled the most effective background investigation technique, simply because it is not perfect. The primary issue in evaluating the accuracy of polygraph testing for per sonnel security screening basically comes down to an issue of fairness and whether a significant number of truthful persons would unfairly be labeled liars. While OT A was correct about the lack of sci entific evidence to support the accuracy of polygraph screening tests, a consid erable amount of practical everyday evi dence indicates polygraph personnel 67

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Flexible fibers can bend and see around corners. This FO 170S is 3 feet long. Some items for concealment of surveillance TV cameras are EXIT signs, radios, television sets, emergency light fixtures and other items custom designed to fit into any office, llotel, or business decor. VISUAL l:!::JMETHODS INC. 35 Charles St.; Westwood. N.J. 07675 (201) 666-3950 Telex: 642175 screening is very ..iccurate and that fears of numerous inaccurate judgments about truthful persons are unfounded. First of all. both the Central Intelli gence Agency and the National Security Agency have administered polygraph screening programs for a number of years, and these apparently have been very suc cessful. OT A acknowledges that both CIA and NSA have found polygraph testing to be a useful personnel screening tool. Because these programs have been in place for some time. it seems reasonable to assume the management of these two agencies have not found polygraph test-. ing unfair to their employees or detrimen tal to employee morale. Outside govern ment. the American business community has made extensive use of polygraph testing as a personnel security tool. De spite the lack of any centralized quality control on the selection of polygraph ex aminers or the procedures used. as exist in the federal government, there is no evidence to indicate any significant num ber of truthful persons is incorrectly judged as untruthful by these polygraph tests. This point can be focused on more closely by looking at experience in Wis consin, which has no licensing require ments or regulations establishing poly graph examiner qualifications. In May 1980, a law regulating use of polygraph testing in employment-related investi gations went into effect in the state. This law prohibits a prospective employer from rejecting a job applicant solely on the results of a polygraph examination. The law further requires that prior to the ex amination, the persons being tested be informed both orally and in writing that they may not be denied employment based solely on the results of the polygraph test. The person being tested must also be informed of the test results at the com pletion of the examination. If a person wishes to file a complaint regarding the use of polygraph in an employment sit uation, procedures have been established for these complaints to be investigated by the state's equal rights division. From the time this law went into effect in May 1980 until December 1983, six complaints of unfair preemployment polygraph testing were filed with the Wisconsin Equal Rights Division. The Wisconsin Polygraph Association esti mates that in the same three and a half years, more than 12,000 preemployment polygraph screening tests were admin istered in Wisconsin. After the equal rights division's initial investigation of the complaints. it ruled that in only three of these cases was there even probable cause .. _.--.. to believe the complaint was justified. In not one of these cases was it even alleged the polygraph cxmniner's judg ment of the applicant's truthfulness was in..iccurate. These complaints basically alleged employment had been denied be cause of test-developed information ir relevant to job performance. But none of the complaints alleged the applicant h..id been questioned about prohibited areas such as religious or political be liefs, marital relationships, sexual activ ities. or union involvement. In the period under consideration, then, complaints of unfair preemployment polygraph testing were filed in approx imately .05 percent of the tests actually administered. and half these complaints were ruled unfounded. But perhaps most significant is the fact that in not one case was it even alleged the polygraph examiner's judgment of the job applicant"s truthfulness was inaccurate. In addition to this basic absence of complaints about preemployment poly graph testing, there is some very positive supportive information about preemployment polygraph testing. During 1981 one of the firms that administered poly graph preemployment screening tests in Wisconsin had 220 consecutive job ap plicants answer a questionnaire about their polygraph tests (Security Management, August I 983.) All those questioned had completed their polygraph screening test and been informed of the test results. In response to the questionnaire, 89 percent indicated they found the test fair, and 96 percent said they would voluntarily sub mit to testing in the future to cooperate with an investigative effort. While this information does not establish the scientific validity of polygraph personnel security screening. it does indicate that based on practical experience, there is every reason to believe it is a fair and accurate investigative pro cedure. Due to the complexity of the issue, the academic debate over the va lidity of polygraph personnel will be lengthy. Over the long run. this deb..tte will be beneficial and probably result in improved testing techniques. However, in the meantime. let us not get side tracked by an academic argument and allow it to limit unduly or prevent the use of a personnel security tool that has proved itself not only effective but fair to those on whom it focuses. I "s" I About the Author ... Donald R. War ren is an attomey in the Dallas, TX. law Jirm of Strasburger & Price. His practice includes both personal injury d,fenl'l' a11d commercial litigation. SECURITY MANAGEMENT

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SAN DIERfl, Ct\ DAILY TRANSCRIPT ft, fJJ;1'i I q ;~ /l \' I _.,. -~ r"Soviets Getting Better At ~~!:!:?~:s, ~~l,1:~ mm,wcy ~viets are getting better in many released in the Soviet Union. areas of space exploration, and a Russia's Venera Venus Exjanel of American scientists says ploration program has been the 1i):iat improvement has been ~ccommost impressive of all that nation's janied by a partial lowering of space probes, the American scien-~recy barriers. tists said. : Not only are Russian scientists Soviet landing craft have surtelling their western counterparts vived in the extremely hot, highly more of what they are learning,. but corrosive atmosphere of Venus for the Soviets are discussing future more than an hour while radioing plans more and even are willi~ to ba~k pictures and colajuctmlf:_soU .:.-1-t th "l ... .. r,t. -.i. "''"'"J',tb ~,. lw 'K.:/'p_ .,.....1 eir ,a1 ures. -1o-.:,;~ti',~ ,,f~'. ~na" e sc .. .... i "This change in attimile-"-ha9'~~; ;;;z \t$~tell~~e not yet been expressed in official "demonstrated a'host of advanced siolicy, but it is noticeable on in-capabilities." i&vidual level," said a Congres"Although the ind~vidual ii>Dal Office of Technology Assesstechnologies employed on Venera l iiient report on a meeting of. 13 o_f orbiters are all well withuu:urrent !;ii'erica's top space scientists. U.S .. capabilities, ii' is.nonetheless I S They were called together at true that they will not all be lie request of OTA to assess. the employed together on a U.S. misioientific advantages and disadsion until 1988," the report said. iiotages of U.S.-Soviet cooperation Harold Masursky, a senior ia:Spa~ science .. planetary scientist with the .U.S. E "The general consensus among Geological Survey and a particithe space scientists at this pant in the OTA workshop, said ii,rkshop was that the stronger pictures from the Venera 15 and 16 Sviet capabilities in space science satellites have helped the United &come, the more the Soviets are States redesign and improve the imm~ to provide in the way of radar experiment that will fly on ditailed information about their the 1988 Venus mission. 'P!ans and results," the report said. The Soviet Union is preparing :.::-: "While there was some to launch two spacecraft called ii;e&greement over the extent
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U.S.-Soviet space cooperation that is due for completion in late October; the workshop findings were officially released on 13 September in hearings before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. The 13 workshop participants, chaired by radio astronomer Bernard Burke of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, were chosen for their experience in scientific collaboration with the Soviets. They agreed that past exchanges have been quite fruit ful, especially in such areas as space medicine, where the Soviets have shared data on bone loss and cardio vascular deconditioning in long-term manned spaceflight; and lunar and planetary studies, where one nation's data has helped the other to plan its subsequent spacecraft missions. In May 1982, however, the Reagan Administration retaliated for the decla ration of martial law in Poland by refusing to renew the 10-year-old agreement on U.S.-Soviet space cooperation. Since then, according to the workshop participants, the inter changes have declined steadily as previous arrangements are concluded. Although some important inter changes have continued-a prime ex ample being the synthetic aperture radar imagery of the surface of Venus from the Soviet Venera 15/16 mission-and although Soviet scientists consistently express a desire to coop erate further, little can be done without a formal framework. At the same time, the consensus of the workshop was that Soviet prow ess in space science has been im proving rapidly. Venera 15/16 was planned and launched in 18 months, far faster than the U.S. missions are mounted. The Soviets have also taken the lead in the exploration of Hal ley's comet in 1986 with their Vega spacecraft. The United States will not even be sending a spacecraft. The workshop participants also noted that with the Soviets' increased capabilities in space science, there has come an increased openness and self-confidence. Numerous joint mis sions and hosted experiments have been flown with France and West Germany, and there is talk of international missions to both Mars and Venus. The biggest stumbling block to re newed U.S.-Soviet cooperation ap pears to be the concern over technol ogy transfer. While the workshop par-21 SEPTEMBER 1984 ticipants felt that the concerns were exaggerated in the case of space sci ence, they agreed that so long as suspicions remain high, the most workable exchanges will continue to be joint discussions, data analysis, and planning of separate missionswithout an exchange of hardware. -M. MITCHELL WALDROP / SCIENCE WASHINGTON, D.C. w. 153,000 SEP 21 I 9 8 4 BVtMEJ:..l.J!YS OTA, St':'dif3s U.S.-Soviet Space Cooperation Worries about "technology trans fer" and a "one-way street" to the contrary, cooperation with the Soviet Union_ on space science has greatly benefited the United States i11 the past ~nd. could prove even more produc tive 1n the future, according to a panel of scientists recently convened by the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA}:--_ _, _______ ............ -s-, '" In fact, the danger may lie in not cooperating: the panel members pointed out that the Soviets have been improving their capabilities so rapidly-and have been pursuing non-U.S. partners so vigorouslythat the Americans might one day find themselves isolated in space science. The Workshop on Possible Future U.S.-Soviet Space Cooperation, held on 8 May at OT A headquarters, was actually part of a larger OT A study on SCIENCE, VOL. 225 I

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THE SUN BALTIMORE. MO (MORNING) D. 185.500 SUN 394.6/)() NOV 24 1984 ~ft~'S .Star Wars \;"' C/\'-) IN a ba~kground report titled "Directed Energy Missile Defense in Space," released earlier this year by the Conl{!essional Office of Te~h!l!>l.ogy_A8&.l!1.~!!!e~~1_the autlior, Ashton B. Carter of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, a former Defense Department analyst with full access to classified data on such matters, concluded that "the prospect that emerg ing 'Star Wa(S' technologies, when further de veloped, will provide a perfect or near-perfect defense system ... is so remote that it should not serve as the basis of public expectation or national policy." Based on our assessment of the technical issues, we are in complete agree ment with this conclusion. In our view the questionable performance of the proposed defense, the ease with which it could be overwhelmed or circumvented and its potential as an antisatellite system would cause grievous damage to the security of the United States if the Strategic Defense Initiative were to be pursued. The path toward greater security lies in quite another direction. Although research on ballistic-missile defense should continue at the traditional level of ex penditure and within the constraints of the ABM Treaty, every effort should be made to negotiate a bilateral ban on the testing and use of space weapons. It is essential that such an agreement cover all altitudes, because a ban on high-altitude weapons alone would not be viable if direct-en ergy weapons were developed for ballistic-mis sile defense. Once such weapons were tested against dummy boosters or reentry vehicles at .low altitude, they would already have the capa bility of attacking geosynchronous satellites without testing at high altitude .. ... the (recent] U.S. interception of a Min uteman warhead over the Pacific shows that both sides [U.S. and Soviet] .now have a ground-based antisatellite weapon of roughly equal capability. Hence there is no longer an asymmetry in such antisatellite weapons. Only a lack of political foresight and determination blocks the path to agreement. Such a pact would not.permanently close the door on a de fense-dominated future. If unforeseen t.echno logical developments were to take place in a re ceptive international political climate in which they could be exploited to provide greater secu rity than the current condition of deterrence by threat of retaliation provides, the renegotia tion of exiating treaties could be readily achieved. Hans A. Bethe, Richard L. Garwin, Kurt Gottfried and Henry W. Kendall, in Scientific American.

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-'';.r. By ~OLD .i. SCIIMECK Jr. ~q:~ a such treatments. but when trials in patients should begin, according to a report released yesterdaJ by the Congressional Office of Teclmology Assessment. Gene therapy designed to treat in dividual patienta without 'causma cbanps that pould be Inherited la just an utension of coaveational medical science and technology and does not nme new ethical 1ssues. the report said. "The factor that moat distinguishell., it from other medical tedmo1ogies is its c:oaspicuousness In tJlE! public eye. the report said. Some critics have 'asserted that IUdl treatments would be the begiomng of misguided attempts to redesign the human race. The type of gene therapy under moat ac:tlve nsearch Is the introduction of a normaI' gene. produoed in the laboratory. to serve a function lacking in the patient's comparable but defective gene. For example, cells containing a transplanted gene for a Yitai eDZyDl4' ."might a. dl8eale caused by .the patient's natund Jack of that emyme. The document made public yesterday made a sharp distinction between treating individual patients' to cope with their own poetically based disorders and treatment that could I cause changes tranalilissible to the I patients' children and succeeding generations. Inheritable changes presumably could 6e made only by tn,.nsplaoting genes into the patients reproductive cells. : Such treatment Is not practical to day, mayor may not prove possible in the future, and would require much further evaluation and public discussion before it Is ever attempted, the report said. The 1~ document was described as a baclwound paper p.,_ Continued on Page C3 t. !"I i :1 i f g -<' :a, = f r .... JIO ....

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Panel~\Say. ~s Gene T. herapy lnitnfnent :;b~blologlcalgul~~ -, of cells.~ modified vi. 1 ruses have no effects other than that :i1.>." : ,, .;.:\<,,, ; the trea~ ~e maqow to tllat pa. dves in dealing With complex tecbniof delivering the new genes they COrltinued F,.,,..: ~.Cla. tient. ;:, .. ..,cal Issues that confront society. The carry. . ~i.. Such attempts are.expected first 1n' background paper on gene therapy ltisexpectedthatlelJ8tberaPYwill ,! ;. two ~cetic diseases thatleave was requested"by Senator-elect Al-first be performed on patients who oared to help ecm,i-eaa JD oomnderlng tbeir vi immunologically crip. bert Gore Jr., Democrat of Teimes-: have no other prospects for treatment future po1i pied. -The diseases ate called adenosee, when he was chairman of an in. and who suffer from devastating disA few~ at human.....-.. tber sine deaminase deficiency and purine vestigations subcommittee of the eases that. are llkely to be rapidly made ..,.... -nucleosidepbosphorylasedeficiency. House Science and Technology Comfatal. 1Pi = :=a. ~~lier, Only about 50 cases of the first dismittee. For the forseeable future, _only disou were II--.. .......... .._ exease, known as ADA deficiency, have eases that. are known to result from ~rts the attemplB premature. been reported in the world, the report Wi~ the past few years, interest the failure of single genes will be the :.mce tbm. the "1ce ofi'l'eclmology said. T6e other disease is even more ID human gene therapy has intensisubject of such treatment. Genetic .\ssessmmt report ~'knowledge rare. No conventional cures are fled-as I'.' result of improved methods diseases that result f1'.0Dl defects in :md tecbnology baw~ ~-.~P. known, and the patients usually die for the actual ~plantation of genes more than one gene appear to be be-idly. .. 'I young, into Ihm& cells. yond the capabilltles of geDe trans-Experts sat ~e gene.,,. ,.lner"'disease however thegene 1be most promising techniqUe Is plantationtoday. herapywill beettml~lbjm,-1! ,... the use of genetically engineered vi-Whether tbera of the kind l --.la Mt: .... ~-i;-;;:.Mll$ fl~ve ID the patients is ._-.. ........ ....... ... gene PY Y as ~. .;; 5~---~0 ~-,1 .,,,._ 1he equivalent .normal ruses'"" tatry .._ genes .un, n envisioned today will indeed prove, ;uch atteliqft tdlit11eae by genes have been grown in the taboraruses are modified ~te the (:Ul'lltive in many cases is still unemovq ,a IIUb)ilel_ patient's tory. .,,.-~ foreign genes and to m~e the virUs known, but~ are hopeful that xme mamnr, t1at1111 to fnsert The Office of Technology Assessparticles harmless to the cells they some carefully chosen patients may a pae ltiat is clefec. ment was set up by Congress to aid penetrate. benefitareatlyfrom the treatments. ;ive ID the~tl~ imd the Sella~e and House of RepresentaThe modified viruses are little In addition to the two lmmwte defi; .. ciency diseases that are the most likely candidates for early trial, there are many other single-gene disorders that might be attacked by .gene ther-apy Chae candidate is likely to be acJls order called Lesch-Nyhan disease that has serious ill effects on the cen tral nervous system as well as the rest of the body. The normal counter part of the gene that is defective in this disorder has been identified and grown in the laboratory. Another promising case is pbe nylketonuria, a cause of serious mental retardation in patients who are not put on rigorous restrictive diets very early in infancy. In the long~ range, such blood diseases as thalassemias and perhaps even sickle cell anemia might be responsive to gene therapy. But experts said much more research on the bi,91-ogy of the human blood-forming sys. tem will e needed to make these serious and widespread dts,ues ameria-. ble to gene therapy.

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Congress Reports on Gene Therapy The first authorized attempts at cor recting genetic defects by use of human gene therapy are expected to take place sometime in 1985, assum ing that approval from the Natipnal Institutes of Health (NIH) and Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is forthcoming. An experimental protocol for using genetically-engineered orga nisms in patients with Lesch-Nyhan syndrome has already been approved by the local Institutional Review Board (IRB) at the University of California at San Diego. A proposal to try human gene therapy in the treatment of aden osine deaminase (ADA) deficiency, the immune disorder that afflicts socalled bubble children, is also expected to be among the first to be passed up to NIH and FDA for approval at the national level. Anticipating the advent of human gene therapy, Representative Albert Gore, Jr. (O-Tenn.), asked the con gressional Office of Technology As sessment (OTA) to conduct an analy sis of the scientific and ethical issues inherent in medicine's advance into the treatment of certain generally rare diseases by the repair or replacement of defective genes. The OTA has just released its report, a remarkably lucid document that clearly distinguishes between gene therapy for somatic or body cells that will only affect the patient being treated and germ line therapy that would lead to heritable changes. The report, which has been en dorsed by Gore, who won a seat in the Senate in the recent election, sees no unique ethical obstacles to somatic cell therapy, provided that consider ations of safety and some reasonable expectation of efficacy are met. as they must be for any new experimental medical procedure. According to the report, "Because cells that are used in reproduction are not involved, gene therapy [in somatic cells] is quite similar to other kinds of medial therapy, and does not pose new kinds of risks. When considering gene therapy that does not result in inherited change, the factor that most distin guishes it from other medical technologies is its conspicuousness in the public eye; otherwise it can be viewed ( -j ;, I q SJ/ as simply another tool to help individ uals overcome an illness." On the subject of germ line experi mentation, the OTA report is much more cautious. "There is," it says, ". no agreement about the need, technical feasibility, or ethical accept ability of gene therapy that leads to inherited changes. [Therefore, it) should not proceed without substantial further evaluation and public dis cussion." The OT A report was based on ma terial gathered from hearings Gore has held on human applications of genetic technology, as well as conclusions from a specially convened ad visory panel comprised of scientists, attorneys, representatives of groups of patients with genetic diseases, reli gious leaders and others. It was chaired by LeRoy Wafters of the Kennedy Institute of Ethics at Georgetown University. The OTA evaluation, which includes extensive discussion of the real and perceived moral ques tions that surround biotechnology, is noteworthy in its support of somatic cell therapy for the treatment of appro priate diseases. -BARBARA J. CUWTON

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RADIO CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD AVENUE I LIVINGSTON I NEW JERSE:. Y 07039 (2011 992 6600 I (212) 22 7-5570 I /800) 631-1760 December 17, 1984 4:30-6:00 PM MT National Public Radio All Things Considered Lori Walkenschmidt reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 6297 Y The Office of Technology Assessment, the scientific research arm of Congress, today released a report on the use of genetic engineering in curing human illness. Michael Richards has details. Richards: There are two to three thousand genetic diseases, and right now we can only treat a handful of them, but the Office of Technology Assessment report says many more treatments are being developed. With these new discoveries the report finds new ethical issues. Chief among these, should genetic thera:?y affect only an individual patient or should it also eli~inate the faulty genes altogether for succeeding generations. Representative Albert Gore heads the House science and technology panel that commissioned the report. Gore: We have to accelerate the development of a new bioethical set of understandings that will help us take into account the effects on future generations in addition to just the individual involved. Richards: Gore wants a national commission established to set up ethical guidelines to help society deal with the flood of new genetic possibilities. For National Public Radio, this is Michael Richards in Washington.

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. I I r NATION'S l!Ei\LT II Wi\Si!INGTON. D.C MflNflllY :15rl'H1 I () ., I' 1 / r) \ flJL!J/f.E'I.I.E'S Infectious Disease Pneumococcal-Vaccine':' For three years Medicare has paid for pneumo coccal vaccination of the elderly, but only about one-quarter of those over 65 have received the vaccine, proba bly because neither the beneficiaries nor physicians are attuned to prevention, the Off.~2.LT!!.shnQ.!~gy Assessm~~t has said. in a recent memo. The agency finds that the government should do ~ore to pro mote the vaccine possibly by va~cinating patients as they leave hospi tals or by funding state gran~-_T_he t "Update of Federal Act1v1ties repor 1 Regarding the. Use of Pneumococca Vaccine,". GPO~tock n~o. 052-003-00955-2, is availabl~ _for $2.50 from: Government Pnnting Office, Washington, DC 20402. .......... ...... .. HOSPITAL FORMULAHY NEW YORK. N.Y. ~,, n r-1 j n v ~' 7 r:, l n rrp ,) ~-. Hospit~I re-admissions reduced 'th Or H wt use of pneumonia vaccine Increased use by hospitals of pneumococcal vaccines for highrisk patients could decrease subsequent admissions for all pneumonias by 10%, said the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA), based on a report prepared for the Public Health Service's Immunization Practices Advisory Committee. The OT A noted that the pneumococcal vaccinations could be provided through hospitals since Medicare still covers this service, even though it is excluded from the current diagnosis related group (DRG) payment system. Funding through state grants administered by the Centers for Disease Control would be another means to promote the vaccina tions. OT A said. nrn INDIANAPOLIS NEWS INDIANAPOLIS, IND. D. 136,654 NOV 28 1984 /l!L14eug Intensive care units (JCOs) m h0sp1ta1:s are the best American medicine has to offer but the price is high. the Congressional Q.!fi.c~ of Technology Assessment reports. -A typ1caTICtr~tmrarr average -of two and half times as much as a regular hospital bed charge $408 a day compared to $167. The study says ICU beds represent only about 6 percent of the total hospital beds in this country, but account for 14 to 17 percent of the total hospital budget, or between $13 and $15 billion. Lou Hiner Jr. is chief of The News Washington bureau.

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llOSPIT Al WEEK CIIIC;\GO, IL W[Ff
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' '. THE WASHING'tONPOST l ..... .. Study :_Eyes Popularity of Contact Lenses i Asaociated Press Newer industry-figures in the re~ the market in 1978. but were es~ore Americans than ever will port showed that about 120 miUion timated to have faUen to about 15 stfe in the new year through contact people-or 51 percent of the total percent in 1982 and are projected lenses. and such lenses could even popuJation-=were using eyeglasses to decline to only 5 percent by displace eyeglasses as the nation's by 1982, compared with between 1987, the report said. Industry figchief answer to vision problems be-. 16.3 million and 18 million-or ores showed that soft lenses rose tore too long, a congressional agenabout 7 percent-using contacts. from 49 percent to about 75 per <:y says. Yesterday's report said one reacent in the same period, while a Not only has the price been comson for contacts' gain is that their third type-gas-permeable con ing down, but expected scientific prices "are now about half of their tacts-were rising from zero to 20 advances should help the spread of mid-1970 levels, as a result of vigpercent or more of the market. contacts, said yesterday's report orous competition among dispensHard-lens contacts, according to fnm the congressional Office of ers and manufacturers of lenses." the report, are light and safe but ~logy A~men~. And it added, "This. competition is have the disadvantage of being imther: potential _develop-likely to continue _and prices_ will permeable to oxygen, interfering liel_lt, at 18 at ~ceavable to pro~bly contine to decline." with the flow of oxygen to the eye's (~ ) displacement of The report a1so suggested that cornea and limiting the usual daily as the domanant method the.. f h wearing -to between eight and rrecti he .two .... re<:ess10. ns o t e early 16 hours. co then ant said~t~too1980s kept,pns smaller than they Softer lenses that can be worn ture, would have been. The authors' rea-~'!!J~~~~-.. .is.Ji~~~---eoQ&:New-contact_._.lenseestill tend_ longer are growing in popularity. ,~ government and : ume .,,. ;....... _,.;_-.1. .. ;.. ,.;; .. ,;. .. .,..., and However, theteport said, they can, Ec:s-~=gdifferences:~-,-~~=~:~~:;con'' ~'::~-;-in:.,~-: any measure. conventional tac~ becaused,tey like. th e ~ay ther. likelihood of eye infections from' sses are still far ahead of con-look, rather ~n for medical reahandling and wearing. The third tJtts-the small, transparent discs ~~s-factors. th. at might ris_e 0 r fall type, gas-permeable, combine some +i directly over tm, eyeball. But in tmportan!=E .te someone who has of the superior optical and "easy-= are gaining. lost his job and salary. care qualities of hard lensd_,with t 1igures showed the There has been a. big change the comfort:of soft lenses; .. :; l people 3 years and within the contact-lens category it. The re~ stated that gaS:per
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THE DALLAS MORNING HEWS DALLAS.TX 0. 335,670 s. 417,474 OEC 8 l984 f!!#!REUS'S Ironic business of medicine t( DANIEL GRIINBIIIG WASHINGTON, D.C. For an insight into the basic irra tionality of the supposedly rational business of science and medicine. look away from the wondrous mechani cal heart to an old and mun dane medical device the wheelchair. When it's needed, ~othiug else will do. About 1.2 million Americans per year make permanent or temporary use of wheelchairs. Over 300,000 are sold annually, with sales estimated around 5125 million, half from the federal government. A similar amount is spent on repairs. Thus, the wbeelchairrepresentsa flour iShing business tied to a humane~ that's heav ily underwritten by the'-federal treasury. Given that combination, it might be expected that the United States would excel in wbeelcliair technol-6gy. But it doesn 'to ~-~.~::::~: ----~-Most American wheelchairs are stri'ppecf'. down, basic models, selling for a few hundred dollars. They can't cope with rough surfaces or hills, and they're so flimsily constructed that, within a few years, re pair costs usually exceed the purchase price. Though powered, easily maneuvered models quickly achieved 25 percent of the U.S. market following their introduction in '1983, Europe remains far out front in inventing and providing wheelchairs that dramatically enhance-mobility. The most valu able feature is the curb-climbing chair, a marvelous European innovation that's not available from Amer ican manufacturers. The curb climber also can climb hills and safely travehnow and ice. To invoke old and new laments: If we can put men on the moon and replace hearts with machinery, why can't we excel in wheelchair technology? The subject is examined in a new congressional report that should be required reading for high-tech ,.mthusiasts who aspire to ever-greater feats:usually .remote from human needs. Produced by the ~l \ Technolog~~.:5smem1 Congress' o_wn think tank, The Market for Wheelchairs: Innovation and Federal Policy confirms that there's a lot of serious, badly needed technological mopping up on earth to do before we move on to faraway glittering adventures. A major cause of backwardness in wheelchair technology is the dearth of federal research money for the subject. Though the federal government spent S5 billion on health research in 1982, it spent all of Sl.3 million on wheelchair research. Industry claims to have spent SS million on research for better wheelchairs. But the number is suspect, since federal an,d private insurers discourage innovations by generally refusing to pay for any but the cheapest wheelchairs. .. As manufacturers have difficulty selling a higher-priced, higher-quality, manual wheelchair," the congressional study .observes. "they probably have little reason. to produce one." "Spinoffs" to the civilian economy are often claimed as one of the benefits from.lederal support of advanced research. Whether the benefits are worth the price is arguable, but the congressional study found no scientific flow toward the wheelchair industry. "Many people in government research centers," the study declared, "believe that current high tech nology is not being fully utilized by the wheelchair industry. The survey found no instances of high technology transferred to wheelgiairs." There's no Nobel Prize for wheelchair research and no ~conomic reward in it either. Obviously, it's an extraordinarily useful and usually indispensible device for vast numbers of people. But the wheel chair lacks glitter and glory. And unfortunately they're what's impo~tant for commanding the wherewithal for research. Daniel S. Greenberg is the editor and publisher of Science & Government Report, an independent, Washington, D.C.-based newsletter. Words IJy Wire

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,t_ .. _.,.., based on the relatively high cost and low usage associated with the device, an Office qf Technology Assessment case study suggests. The report, issued Nov. 30, states that only about 100 of the estimated 30,000 to 40,000 above-elbow amputees in this country wear the Elbow, a myoelectrically controlled artificial arm with a moveable elbow joint. Factors such as the cost of the device compared with other prostheses, its design as a ''worker's arm,'' and certain public policies regarding disability benefits may contribute to its limited use,-the report suggests. / .,,/ / The Boston Elbow costs $3,500. An additional $6,000 is needed to make it part of a complete artificial arm and fit it to an amputee. According to the report, an engineer at the National Institute of Handicapped Research describes the Boston Elbow as 'essentially overkill,' i.e., an unnecessarily complex technology at a correspondingly high price." Supporters of the Elbow and similar myoelectrically controlled arms, however, "assert that the enhanced innateness of the devices more than justifies their high price," the report notes. The Boston Elbow was developed and is manufactured by the liberty Mutual Insurance Company, a "major provider" of workers' compensation insurance, the study says. The battery-powered prosthesis differs from many others in its ability to imitate the "flexion and extension" of a natural elbow, the report states, especially in its ability to move at speeds "proportional to the intensity of the amputee's muscle contraction." The Elbow offers features that are useful in the workplace, such as the capability to "lift a relatively heavy object, and ... the capacity for simultaneous movement of the elbow and terminal device (hook or hand)," the report states. There are three other prosthetic alternatives to the Boston Elbow, the study notes. The conventional, body-powered elbow prosthesis costs about $400, with another $1,100 for fitting to the amputee. A Veterans Administration switch-controlled electric prosthetic elbow costs $900, plus an additional $1,100 for fitting. The third alternative the myoelectrically controlled Utah Arm is described by OTA as a "more attractive pr,osthesis" than the Boston Elbow. The Utah Arm, which is not marketed as a "worker's arm," carries a base price of $ I0,000, with another $10.000 in charges for fitting to the amputee. (Morel D t "b tion of the Boston Elbow, and of other prosthetic devices, is "in part a function 15 n u f d" bT b ft "th e ort of public policy, especially the design and implementation o 1sa 1 1ty ene 1 s, _e r P_ states. For example, a veteran receiving a prosthesis through the Vet~rans Ad~1mstrat1~n would probably not receive a Boston Elbow, both because of the VA s commitment t~ its own elbow and because the VA has not yet approved the Boston Elbow for VA fundmg. The fact that the Boston Elbow was developed by an insurance company al~o may i~hibit its widespread distribution, the report suggests. ... Liberty Mutual may hesitate to d~ffuse the device to competing workers' compensation insurers," the report stat:s. :one L1~erty Mutual official describes the situation as 'touchy,' one ~ha_t evokes the _firm s mixed motives: to diffuse the Elbow and to protect its distinctiveness. Similarly, other insurers have _not ~;en willing to buy the Boston Elbow; that would make them customers of a competitor. The Boston Elbow case study was prepared in connection with OTA's project on Federal Policies and the Medical Devices Industry. The report, prepared by San~r~ Tanenba~m, P~D, of Brandeis University's Health Policy Center, ~oes not ser_ve an official OT A, v1cwpomt. Copies of the report are available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. (Jovernment Printing Office, Washington, D.C. ..

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MOOERN HEALTHCARE CHICAGO, ILL MONTHLY 65,000 S(P l984 As(Wf(fP Washington ---------------------------------Commission's ready to begin work refining Medicare payment system Cynthia Wallace Washi11r,ton Editor The Prospective Payment Assessment Commission is beginning to get its teeth into some substantive issues as it works to develop suggestions on how Medicare's prospective payment system should be refined. The 15-member commission plans to meet every six weeks beginning in September to develop a report for the Dept. oC Health and Human Services. The report, due in April, will contain recommendations on updating Medi care payments Cor fiscal year 1986. Congress mandated that the commis sion recommend percentage changes in the rates annually to the HHS sec retary. Focus for debate. Donald A. Young, M.D., executive director of the com mission since March, said he knows there's always the chance that the commission's recommendations won't be heeded by HHS. The law only spe cities that the HHS secretary con sider the panel's recommendations, But no matter what happens to the commission's recommendations, its reports will contribute to the prospec Commiaslon dlltll can fuel debaw: Young commi1111ion. The group's members will write the actual report. Last year, the congressional Off1'Hf ... Technology Assessment appoTiitecl" these members-an health industry leaders. The commission ia chaired by Stuart H. Altman, Ph.D., dep oC the Florence Heller Schoo~ Bra'6deis Uni versity, Waltham, MA. Although the commission's report will Cocus on DRG payments for 1986 Group gets rolling. The commission was designed in theory to be independent oC both HHS and Congress. The commission has a 14-person stare, which works a few blocks from HHS headquarters and Capitol Hill. A budget of $2.4 million has been proposed Cor the commission in 1985; it also has another $700,000 left over Crom its 1984 budget that it will use next year. The commission has met three times already. Dr. Young character ized these meetings as ones in which the panel learned about its role and defined its policy. Now, the commis sion is moving into a discussion of the substantive issues," Dr. Young said. During the summer, commission members formed two subcommittees, one on hospital productivity and cost er. fectiveness and another to investigate medical and therapeutic practices. After the subcommittees consider these topiea, a report will be submitted to HHS. Each subcommittee has defined ito pursue. The Cull commission will begin discu1111i111 these and other issues at its meeting planned for Sep tember, Dr. Young said. the payment de-----------------------------The subcommittee on productivity and cost effectiveness is considering questions related bate, Dr. Young l..,lieves. "The data and the reasons and analyses that led The commission has formed two subcommittees-one to took at hospital productivity and the other to assess the safety and effectiveness ofmedical devices to their recommendations can be widely used ... and debated," Dr. Youn!( said. The report will be of value Car beyond the simple bottom line of what goes to the secretary .... That information can sene as a focal point Cor discussion and debate in the future." We've known all along that Cor the first )ear report there's not a lot we could have done in terms of original research and data l(athering," Dr. Young said. "The report might have to be written with a progress note on the direction in which we're heading." Before Dr. Young joined the commis sion, he was a deputy director of the Bureau of Eligibility, Reimbursement and CO\eral(e in HHS' Health Care Fi nancinl( Administration. There, he \Vas inrnhed in writing the prospective 11ay rulrs. In his current rol,. Dr. Youn!( is a ..;.taff nwrnl~r 1tro\idin~ i~uitlanc-{ tot ht1 and beyond, its members are being brought into the debate about HCFA's proposed changes in 1985 rates. HCF A has lowered multipliers, called DRG weights, which reflect the complexity of procedures. HCF A made the adjust ments to ensure hospitals didn't get too much reimbursement as they improve the coding oC DRGs. Hospital industry ofCicials belie,:e these adjustments were unfair. They argue that HCFA shouldn't have changed the DRG system until 1986, when it could react to and perhaps enact the commission's recommenda tions. Dr. Young doesn't think the com mission will have a role in the de bate about proposed 1985 payment rates, however. The statute outlin ing the commission's duties cites a 1986 date for recei,ing the first rer omnwnrlation~ from the l(roup. to productivity, other states' rate-set ting and prospective payment sys, terns, the hospital "marketbasket" Ca measure of hospital prices used to up, date Medicare payment rates! and the concept oC budget neutrality (keeping total Medicare expenditures under the prospective payment system at or below the level they would have been under previous reimbursement rel(U lations). The subcommittee on medical prac tices and therapy is considering the safety and effectiveness or devices. It's trying to identify other groups doing the same thing. The commission also is expected to assess technological advances and their impact on the classification sys tem. The panel will propose changes in DRG reimbursement in response to those advances or chanl(es in thP way care is delhered in hospitals. i 1--

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Rocky Mountain News DENVER, COLO. n. !ltS.!i.?4 s. 365,99.? NOV 28 198.4 B((./i{ffi.J.K:.S 1N:a11acJ(~mayfi~itrteriat1tSrl;'v,t1r.;, and Con~fof Nuclear F.... ',:J_' aliout 6 feet of earth, can be knocked out During thosdew nunutes, the command. By_ FRANK MORRIN~ Jr. -.. 10 the. late ltlOs.or early lttOs, -~hen >by either electromaP,etic pulse or disrupauthority would have to verify that an Scripps-Howard Staff Writer b:J41Y o the Soviets have ~'~(~e bugs ircmed ~on of ~rth's magnetic field, a phenom: attac~ was -.oder way, launch the bombers out qf their system,.we rQaj be fa~ for non known as the magnetohydrodynarmc a_nd aarborne comm~ and communica-WAS~INGTON Control o~er U.S. nuthe fnt time with a simliltaneousnuclear effect. tions p~. and decide ho~ to~clear m1SSiles and bombers durmg a nuclealert\ : :.' ., i\ __ In the su~mer of 1982, Blair noted, a The president must authonze retaliati~ Jr attack would be tenuous at best, say two Bia ho t. hiss"fied t cl Of strong solar storm generated enough of a and release the codes that make retaliastuclents of strategic warfare, who warn ir, w wro e aie I s O Y magnetohydrodynamic effect to knock out lion possible. that so much vital i~formation nows f~ild, con~ -anc: ~i;:m~~f a long line between Illinois and Idaho for But a nuclear expl~i~ high over the through vulnerable buned telephone ca-.ca ore ice O about 10 minutes. During. a nuclear exUnited States at .thebegimung of an attack bles that the president might not be able to Tec'lf0100 Assessm,!, aid th e C!>mm~change, 10 minutes is an eternity. could knock out:the criUcal long lines, order retaliation if the Soviets attacked. mca ~ns imp!:vemen ., known 10 ~ih".' ... Blair also said the loss of the cable "blinding" the. con:oand authority by cutThe Soviets have even greater problems :ry lingo as~ cubed rt 1 ~t :esi~ent 1 "' knocked. out contact between Washington, ting communi~tions with ~e command with nuclear control, said Paul Bracken eagan prom as pa O is m ermzaD.C., and communications and strategic ers of the nuclear forces. and'_ Bruce Blair, but they arel steadily t!';:!s U.S. nuclear forces have ~t mate-_,, command centers in Nebraska,. Colorado Blair said the wlnerability of the nuclesolvmg them. t I ria 1 and elsewhere, according to Umted Press ar control system~ led_some_experts to The danger, says Bracken, is that for the "In all likelihood, a Soviet st~1ke would International. fear that the Soviets might figure .they first time, the two superpowers could severely degrade and possibly block In a seminar sponsored by the Arms could "decapitate" a U.S. retaliation l>y "rachet up the alert level" in a crisis -U.S. retaliation," Blair said. Control Association Blair outlined the disrupting communications between the each side responding as the other readies The"problem, Blair said; is that most off .. ~ps that must taken to retaliate command authority and U.S. nuclear more planes and missiles. the critical data the "national command:'' should the Soviets attack. forces. "What has happened in the nuclear age authority," including the. president, needs~ In the case. of intercontinental ballistic That possibility is viewed by some-~ so far is that we jump the alert level one to launch a retaliatory strike travels via missiles launched from the Soviet main' destabilizing the'-IJ:dance of terror that or two notches in our system, and basically vulnerable underground telephone cables land, the command authority would have prevents nuclear war. thr So-:riets roll over and play _dead as far, owned by A~erican T~lephone & Tele-_ a~u~ 30 minutes from launch. to impact. Bl~ir estimates ~t it would cost f~ as_ their nuclear forces are concerned, graph Company. ; M1ss1les launched from submarmes off the $30 btlllon to $50 billion over the next five said Bracken, author of "The Command These AT&T "long~,. buried under coasts.would cut that time in half. years to make the,systei,i less wlnerable.

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. / FDC REPORTS WASHINGTON, D.C. Rose Sheet WEEKLY SEP 24 1984 BtmRIU.li'S 8 The Rose Sheet September 24, 1984 / OTA ANIMAL ALTERNATIVES IN TESTING STUDY TO ADDRESS "POTENTIAL CONSTRAINTS" to the adopfr ;1. '17 y tion of such alternatives, according to OIJj~.2.t}:~c.h..!!.Qk!n.A~~U!!lSN .. (OT Al Biological Applications Program Pro ject Director Tim Hart. In its study, OTA will consider "the potential constraints and conclusions regar ding the appropriation of alternative technologies, including against a general measure of benefits, drawbacks, and capabilities of application," Hart told an OTA advisory panel that met Sept. 18 10 review a partially completed draft report of the study. OT A will compile a "list of agencies" in the U.S. that require some type of hcal!h or safety testing, and will specify "types of testing protocols (used) ... specifically on food additives and chemicals," Hart continued. The section of the report devoted to testing will also describe the state-of-the-an in "descriptive" and "mechanistic" toxkology and will survey potential alternatives to animal use in testing, including "modified whole animal approaches, in ,itro culture techniques, microbes, plants and invertebrates," Hart said. The OTA assessment, requested by the Senate Labor & Human Resources Cmte .. is investigating the use of, and potential for, alternatives to animals in both testing, research and education. It will also e,cplore computer-based information resources as an aid to reducing numbers of animals used. public and private alternative development research and related ethical, cultural and economic issues. OT A divides the section devoted to animal use in research into three major areas biomedical, behavioral, and veterinary and identifies 32 separate disciplines in biomedical research, 15 in behavioral research, and 20 in veterinary research. "It is our hope that by splitting [lhe areas) ... we'll be able to actually identify discrete areas of research where alternatives may be available or may not be available," OT A Congressional Fellow/ Analyst Gary Ellis said. OT A will also include in this section a "re,iew of the policies of scientific societies and professional organizations on animal use and care" that will address the extent and ade quacy of self regulation, Ellis said. The potential for computers 10 aid in the prevention of unintended duplication of ex periments will also be addressed in the OT A assessment. As a basis for this section, OT A will "explore in detail" the reasons for the failure of the Laboratory Animal Data Base, a computer system containing experimental testing control data that operated from 1980 to 1981. Ellis said. Coalition to Abolish the LD,. Test Director and panel member Henry Spira told the advisory group that the Cosmetics, Toiletries& Fragrance As,n. has developed such a system that "works very well." Rep. Toricelli (D-NJ) has sponsored legislation that would require full-text literature sear che,, to pre, ent duplicative experimentation. prior to NIH funding of any research proposal that would use lhe animals. The bill is pending in the Energy & Commerce health subcmte The OT A assessment comes at a time of increasing pressure on ,cientists to justify the use of animals in re,carch and testing. Both the House-passed (HR 2350) and pending Senate ,wsion (S 7i3) of the NIH reauthorization bill would encourage rc,carch into the dcvclopmcnl of ahernatiw research methods and would require a study 10 a,,ess the extent of use of animal, in re,carch. Legi,lation introduced by 5cn. Dok (S 6:-71. "hi,h contain, amend rntnt, to the Animal \\'clfarc Act, also "ould cn..:,,uragc mcthou, lu rt'ducc unncc:cssary c.\ pt i111cati,111 and d,:,dop altcrnati,e,. Rep. Br,mn ID-Calif.),, ,p,,,ts,11 of a ..:ompanir>n 111. .... 11 ,-, 1 I t R -~' 1

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JACKSON DAILY NEWS MISSISSIPPI Oct. 7, 1984 Expert sees demise\of medium: By JIM DRINKARD "The present direction ls clear. H the of surplus supply, then clearly some TIie Amoclaled P1ftl trend continues tlie result will be a dual farms will not survive,'' said Phillips. WASHINGTON American agriagriculture: few super-size famis and those most likely to survive will be the culture is headed for a dual existence many small-size, part-time farms," larger ones which can adopt new tech split between "superfarms" and "mini-Phillips told the Joint Economic Comnologies and lower their production farms," with the medium-sized oper-mittee last week. costs per gallon of milk. ationthathasbeenitsmainstayfordec-The most immediate changes will Currently, a farm must have a cow ades gradually fading from sight, says come in the dairy sector, he said, where herd of at least 300 to break even using a congressional expert. the area long known as the dairy belt of embryo transplant technology to inrhat trend has important impl~cathe Un.ited States will fade from promi-crease the number of offspring from tions for congressional policymakers nence by the tum of the century and the the most productive cows, OT A said. who will be faced next year with writ-Southwest _and Southeast will take its : Fanns that si7.e are most common in ing a new four-year package of agriculplace. Arizona, New Mexico, California and ture legislation, said Michael J. PhilTechnological advances have the poI-iorida, where herds average 500. In lips, a food project director for the.DI::.. tential to increase per-cow milk proMinnesota and Wisconsin, and in the fi~gLtccbuolaa ,A,sv;ssmPQt,: duction by 43 percent by the year 2000, Northeast, herds average 54 cows, alThe pace 1:>f technological change on according tQ .ao..Ql"A --~men( But tugh there are far more fanns. the farm the use of computers and milk demand has been virtually un!~echnology and economics will be genetic engineering, for example changed since 1977, and no sudden in-major factors in shifting dairy produc will speed the demise of medium-size creasesinconsumptionareforeseen. tion to the 1,600 dairy farms in the farms as their operators are forced to So increased surpluses are inevita-Southwest by 2000/' said Phillips. either get big or get out, Phillips said. ble, Phillips said; and f11t!J,re .~ price "Many of the 60,000 dairy farms in the Already, the l percent P,f farms that support costs; if policy rema~ns unlake-states and Northeast will not be are the nation's largest account for 60 changed, could dwarf the $Z.6 billion aDletosurviveby2000~onincome percent of its net farm income, he notcost of the program in 1983. d~rived solely from the dairy oper-ed. "Ifindeedthenear-termfutureisone ation." -sizedf 4rming operations The scenario sketched out fof the olitons, then you've got to come up Still others are suggesting ,that the dairy industry is not unique, he said. It with something other than what we government abandon all attempts to likely will sliow up in other commodity ha~ today "he said. control production and support prices, areas as well, with the hog sector the experts and lawmakers have instead allowing the_ mar~4:1 to work next likely capdklate. adped the problem during early and weed out those inefficient operCommercial-si:t.e fanns which pro-. di .. ions a.bout the shape of next ations. They say efforts to save the traduce 85 percent of U.S. food output now y .s fann bill. ditional farm are nothing more than an number about 300,000, and are defined Roger Jepsen, R-Iowa, said at expensive exercise in romanticism and as those with sales of $100,000 or more I week's hearing that perhaps the nostalgia. a year. The bulk of those -ionie fa yfarmneedstoberedefmed,per-Allowingcurrenttrendstocontinue, 275,000 fanns are in the range of mi~g some super-sized farms into li Id b -00 $100,000 to $500,000 in annual sales. th .. tegory. After all, he reasoned, the Phil ps notes, wou nng a ut greatThe remaining 25,000 ranns, some of t= logy that contributes to growth er efficiency and possibly lower food costs and greater competitiveness in in-them parts of corporate conglomera :.makes it possible for a family to ternational markets. It would also ates, sell upwards of $500,000 a year: run.a much larger operation than it bring costs in the form of decline of ruWhile policymakers, at least in their usea;t!). ral quality of life and possibly adverse rhetoric, continue to sing paean.s .. of $nner Agriculture Secretary Bob effects on water availability and soil praise for "the family farm," current Beri)and bas proposed a system of tarconservation. policies are apparently contributing to geted aid to middle-sized farnlS to preits demise, Phillips said in an interview. serve that vanishing way of rural life. Policies will have to be changed if Farms with gross incomes between lawmakers want to b. lunt the tecluic>; a~;, $25,000 and $200,000 would be logical and economic changes that"pro-.. eli le for price supports. he suggest pel the push toward bigness.he said. ; .. ed, : ylng smaller ones are "hobby "H you think there are some non-eco-fanqs" and larger ones generally don't nomic benefits to these ~crate-sized need financial help. "Even though many view a farm bill debate as only short-run adjustments or concern with level of farm income in the next few years, in reality these deci sions have much longer-run implica tions on the future of U.S. agriculture;," said Phillips.

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~.: .... DATA SYSTEMS NEW YORK, N.Y. Bl-MONTHLY 18,251 OCT 1934 #1(1!/NLLE'S ~_ '.,.., -.. ,, ... ,_ .,/ Management Update by Robert V. Head OTA Looks At Computers It's another study of Federal information technology-a six to nine month effort. But are the right Issues being emphasized? W hile most of us are still ttying to digesc the Grace Commission's recommendations on improving ADP and offia automation, the Office of Technology Assessment ( 0 I A) lias ldclceif'offyeiaooiher study' one on "Federal Government Information Technology." The impetus for the Grace Commission review came from within the Reagan administration; the new survey has been initiated by the legislative branch. The work is being done by OT A, a legislative agency, at the request of Senator William Roth, Chairman of the Senate Govemtnental Affairs Committee. It was unanimously approved by OT A's Board of Directors, which includes such prestigious mem bers as Representative Morris K. Udall and Senator li.dward M. Kennedy. The methodology for the OTA assessment will be markedly different from that employed by the Grace Commission, which relied on the voluntary efforts of private sector automation experts. OTA expects to field a team of a dozen people working intensively over six to nine months. Sotne of these researchers will be full-titne OT A staff members and others will be expens drawn in as needed. OTA has also empanelled more than score of academicians and consultants to advise the staff on how to proceed. At the initial advisory panel meeting 111 H.uh,rt V, lfr.,d ,~ ,, uutnlmtmi: 1/,/nr ,I ( ,, 11 ,,,,r,,tf / 1,/f I \ 1,,tv111, Washington in July, the members were given background briefings covering four key investigative areas: Governmem aclminisuation. This has to do with infonnation technology management, security and vulner ability of information systems and impact of technology on the admini strative process and on the policy making process. Civil liberties. Issues here extend to data protection and privacy, computer profiling and matching, surveillance and access to the dem ocratic pr~. Balance of power. This covers execu tive/ legislature relationships as well as Federal government relationships with state and local government entities. Governmen1 provision of public in formation. The concerns here are over public and private sector roles, public awareness and use of govern ment information and the impact of govrrnment information technology on the roles of traditional providers of information. A dozen issue papers were circulated to the panel further delineating these topical areas. Strictly advisory At its initial se~sion, the panel engat!lJ 111 a spirited dlscu,!o,ton of the iswes. l"htv will met>t ;1~.tm ,II h.P,f twin c\.-..r the next year to review progress on the study arid critique drafts of the final OTA report. It was made clear, though, at the outset, that the panel's role is ad visory in nand that the content of the final report is the responsibility of OT A. In fact, in seeking a diversity of views, OTA does not expect the advisors to achieve consensus. The members of the panel are well pedigreed, but it is curious that the people who presumably know the most about the problems, namely executive branch information managers, have been spe cifically excluded. A few did show up at the meeting in the role of invited Mobservers." In this respect, OT A is following the model of the Grace Com mission which also excluded executive branch information experts. Presum ably this will assure "objectivity," in that the subjects of the investigation will not influence the results, but it can hamper the work of the study team. The Grace Commission Task Force on ADP/OA tried to compensate for their lack of insider knowledge by informally consulting with this writer and a few other Federal computer people; OT A intends to hold "workshops" during the course of their study with Federal information resource managers. The Chairman of the Advisory Panel, Dr. Ted Lowi, Professor of American Institutions at Cornell, disclaimed at the outset his lack of expertise in the technology, commenting that he had \,:nrf(n ., p:lflt'f' on tht' .,,ut,ft'("f "1me

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:, -. .. ';;, ... _, J ----------------------------------,. It Is curious that the people who presumably know the most about the problems, namely executive br(l'rach information managers, have been specifically excluded. dozen years ago. He was ably sup ported in the chair by OT A staff, who helped out with a definition of "infor mation technology" embracing both computers and telecommunications. Al though OT A acknowledges that these two categories are becoming "increas ingly intertwined," a system is consid ered in the "computer" category if its primary purpose is to process, modify, store or display information. Computer systems are considered synonymous with ADP equipment, the favored term in Federal jargon. "T elecommunica tions" refers to systems whose primary purpose is to communicate information. The OT A working papers do a good job of summarizing the background and the issues. They confirm the fact, already widely reported elsewhere, that nobody really knows how many computers are in the government's inventory. The GSA tabulation of mainframes and minis has always been understated, and when it comes to micros it's anybody's guess. OT A cites an estimate from 0MB that the Federal government will have 500,000 personal computers Installed by 1990, a prognosis which in this writer's opinion is way on the low side. 0MB figures on fiscal year 1983 Federal gov ernment computer spending are also referenced, the total being Sl0.S billion. Capital investment is estimated to be 13.4 percent of this total. Omissions and trends In looking at the bibliography of previous ADP studies and efforts put together by the OT A staff, one is temp ted to question whether what is really needed is yet another study rather than some action on the voluminous recom-mendations of previous-study-projects." Curiously, neither the Grace Commis sion report nor the work of this writer published by the Brookings Institution were cited. Technology trends noted in the working papers include: Networks. The increasing use and sophistication of networks, which are making it much easier for computers (of the same or different brand} to routinely exchange information and to operate in a network using 12 shared resources. Personal computers, which are be coming more powerful, cheaper and easier to use. Here, the Federal gov ernment is.following private industry in rapid expansion in the use of small computers. Cost of computing power. There is a continuing decline in the cost of com puter capability that is expected to continue through the 1990s, resulting in a decrease of perhaps another or der of magnitude in the cost of semi conductor storage devices. Artificial intelligence. Al studies are beginning to mature and could provide the foundation for knowledge based systems that are powerful and natural for humans to use. Given these technology trends, how are Federal information system applications likely to evolve and what will be the ef fect of this evolution in the four study areas we have noted. Alas, few answers were forthcoming from the panel. What are the issues? In the opening discussion, the civil lib ertarians, led by such luminaries as Alan Weston, Professor of Public Law and Government at Columbia, quickly seized the initiative. Giving short shift to most of the issue papers, they bored in on potential problems of personal privacy, as epitomized by the executive branch's penchant for computer match ing. The Privacy Act of 1974 was vigor ously invoked, along with ringing refer ences to t.he first amendment, while the Brooks Act of 196S and the Paperwork Red@n ~ct of 1_980, the key statutes affecting Federal information process ing, were scarcely mentioned. It soon became dear that there were no defenders of computer usage to control "fraud, waste and abuse," in attendance or, if present, they were intimidated by the privacy advocates. In fact, at one point Jerry Berman, Legislative Counsel for the American Civil Liberties Union, felt impelled to acknowledge that there was, after all, another point of view on (\ the role of government information systems in law enforcement and nation al security that was not being adequately presented during the discussion. Clearly, a follow-on workshop should pit OT A's panelists against a thoughtful spokesman for the executive branch IGs such as Charles Dempsey of HUD. When the panel got around to other as pects of information processing, it dis played a disquieting lack of sophistica tion regarding the nature of the govern ment's ADP problems. The Social Secur ity Administration was characterized by one panelist as being just barely able to get the monthly checks out on time while another, Carl Hammer, a retired Sperry computer expert, rejoined that at least he was receiving his checks reg ularly. The problems of SSA are, in fact, well documented in GAO reports and in the public statements of top offi cials like Assistant Commissioner Mar shall Mandell, who recently described the systems under his care as "geriatric." In the opinion of this writer, one of the most important issue papers, covering the implications of computers for the administrative process, did not receive adequate scrutiny. Among the important policy questions raised in this paper are the following: Will the quantitative changes made possible by new information technol ogy, i.e., increased speed and extent of information retrieval and dissemi nation, produce important qualitative changes in the administrative process? How will the organizational structure of agencies be affected by informa tion technology? How will i.,.n_fo_rm_a,_d_o_n_t-ec-~nolo;; ai~. --( feet the decision-making process? : How will information technology affect the flow of information? Sure, privacy issues are important and likely to become more so as systems ca pabilities increase. But let us hope that some of the key managerial issues will receive more attention as the OT A study unfolds. CJ GOVERNMENT DATA SYSTEMS ___ /

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ST, LOUIS POST-DISPATCH ST. LOUIS, MO 0. 230,025 s. 454,565 NOV 22 1984 /!ge9EU.E~s r The OTA Under Attack ~Indulging in the age-old habit of killing the messenger, the Heritage Foundation, the New Right's leading think tank, is out gunning for a bearer of bad tidings the Office of Technology Assessment The OTA is. a highly respected, nonpartisan adVisory research agency that was established in 1972. Its job is to provide expert knowledge and scientific advice to Congress on -new technologies and programs:' Its. professional reputation for honesty and soundness of research is first rate. Why then are the New Right and the Defense Department charging the OT A ,with .. numerous errors," .. false conclusions," being "influenced by political considerations" and pcmibly compromising U.S. national security? Because the OTA spilled the technical beans on President Reagan's multiblllion dollar -Star .Wars" space-based missile defense program. In a detailed background paper issued last April, entitled "Direct Energy Missile Defense in Space," the OTA spelled out why "Star Wars" won't work. The OTA's bottom line was that an anti missile defense based on direct energy weapons was "so remote that it should not serve as the basis of public expectation or national policy." The Pentagon was particularly angered at the OT A's release of technical data on the "Star Wars" gystem to Congress and the public; that is where the charge of compromising U.S. security tomes from. The Heritage Foundation wants to "reform" the OTA. The agency, however, 1 doesn't need reforming. But the OTA may 1 need the protection of its bipartisan fl congressional supporters to ward off tile New Right militants who are out to bend tlie..J agency to their will.

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THE ARIZONA REPUBLIC PHOENIX, AZ 0. 273,fi61 s. 409,939 NO\/ 18 1984 /lflBBELl.PS t" REFORM~--, ,, Asse'siri=The As$essors f. -1 S the Office of Techn~~ :?&sessm~nt c4,htrols the agency through the Technology playing politics wifFi science. epublic Apessment Board, which is composed ,or 12 would like to know. l~akers, evenly divided between the two I~ a report prepared r or The Heritage Pfrties and the House and Senate. Foundation, consultant Michael Warner charges lSut there can be many a hitch between.theory that the bipartisancongressional research group a\1(1 practice, and problems are said to exist with has become politically motivated. t.. "balance and objectivity" of OTA back.; ; Warner contends recent OTA ~views of the g~und papers and other analyses. Reagan administration's proposals show that [That being the case, it strongly suggests that PTA "not only is influenced by political _boa __ rd is not exercising P_ roper control over considerations (but) may have compromised. qf A, thus thwarting evenhandedness. U.S. national security." fbne.remedy. as proposed by Warner, might be : The case against OTA, Wa~er: says, -is t&revise OTA's operating procedures "to ensure aupported by. th~ release or classified Jriforma-adequate safeguards and oversight. well as on in an April 1984 OTA background .paper bi)anceto review OTA's ~ous applications of technology~ Congress ppformanc~}.~t'call:shouldbe heeded.'/, .. ~.:

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JOURNAL Hi:BALD DAYTON,011 0. 102,360 1\i(1iJ : (, l ()0 4 I\ 1..l r ;_ :. ,..) () f!!!!J{JEl.l.S Congre~,i~r,.pl group partisan? A study by the Heritage Foulation Partisan? Come, come. It could be ; concludes that the Office of Technology pure coincidence. Besides, everyone f Assessment, a congressional research everyone in Washingto11, at least 1 group, is heavily involved in partisan knows the Reagan administration depolitics. fense proposals are simply mad. That's i Technology Assessment reviews of several key Reagan administration de fense -proposals ha,e been critical, to say the least. I\ right, utterly mad. After all, what's the administration done lately other than get its labors endorsed by all those stupid voters "out there" in the hinterlands?


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