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Quarterly Report Office of Technology Assessment January 1-March 31, 1986 ARCHIVES COPY DO NOT REMOVE FROM LIBRARY ~"",..~o.., LIBRARY OtflCE OF TECHNOLOGY AS ESSMEN CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES V SHlr'~TON, D. C. 20510 ;;;."-CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES \ j Ollce ol Tect.nalagy A11111m 0.. ,_, Wallington, O. C. 20510 ~"
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Office of Technology Assessment Congressional Board of the 99th Congress TED STEVENS, Alaska, Chairman MORRIS K. UDALL, Arizona, Vice Chairman Senate ORRIN G. HATCH Utah CHARLES McC. MATHIAS, JR. Maryland EDWARD M. KENNEDY Massachusetts ERNEST F. HOLLINGS South Carolina CLAIBORNE PELL Rhode Island WILLIAM J. PERRY, Chairman H&Q Technology Partners DAVIDS. POTTER, Vice Chairman General Motors Corp. (Ret.) EARL BEISTLINE Consultant CHARLES A. BOWSHER General Accounting Office House GEORGE E. BROWN, JR. California JOHN D. DINGELL Michigan CLARENCE E. MILLER Ohio JOHN H. GIBBONS (Nonvoting) Advisory Council CLAIRE T. DEDRICK California Land Commission JAMES C. FLETCHER University of Pittsburgh COOPER EVANS Iowa DON SUNDQUIST Tennessee MICHEL T. HALBOUTY Michel T. Halbouty Energy Co. CARL N. HODGES University of Arizona S. DAVID FREEMAN Lower Colorado River Authority RACHEL McCULLOCH University of Wisconsin JOSEPH E. ROSS Congressional Research Service Director JOHN H. GIBBONS LEWIS THOMAS Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center The Technology Assessment Board approves the release of this report. The views expressed in this report are not necessarily those of the Board, OTA Advisory Council, or individual members thereof.
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I. DIRECTOR'S STATEMENT CONTENTS .......................................... Page 1 II. COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS A. Summary of FY '85 Completions, Ongoing Work in FY '86, and New Starts Through March 31, 1986 2 B. Products Delivered During the Quarter 1. Formal Assessment Reports 3 2. Other: Technical Memoranda, Background Papers, Staff Papers or Letter Memoranda, Workshop Proceedings, and Committee Prints 8 3. Testimony ...................... 13 C. Other Communication with Congress 1. Briefings, Presentations, Workshops 14 2. Informal Discussions --Topics 15 D. Projects in Process as of 3/31/86 (including formal assessments, responses to TAB, and Committee requests) 1. Descriptions and Requester(s) 18 A. In Press as of 3/31/86 19 B. In Progress as of 3/31/86 23 E. New Assessments Approved During the Quarter 46 III. PUBLICATION BRIEFS OF FORMAL ASSESSMENTS DELIVERED IV. SELECTED NEWS CLIPS ON OTA PUBLICATIONS AND ACTIVITIES
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-1 -I. DIRECTOR'S STATEMENT Record Deliveries to Congress During the second quarter of FY86. OTA's deliveries to Congress reached a record rate across a wide diversity of subjects (see pp.3-13). Each delivery of a written document is usually accompanied by briefings, testimony, and other avenues of communication between OTA's professional staff and their counterparts in Congress. Clearly the quarter can be described as focused on delivery. A scan of these activities, or for that matter, of OTA's current work agenda, shows that our work focuses on some of the most central issues being faced by Congress. During the commercial Press. hardcover volumes were: quarter five OTA assessment reports were published by the Such publishing broadens access to OTA's work and provides required by most library collections. The publications Preventing Illness and Injury in the Workplace (UNIPUB) Information Technology Research and Development (Pergamon Press) Managing the Nation's Commercial High-Level Radioactive Wastes (UNIPUB) Ballistic Missile Defense Technologies, and Antisatellite Weapons, Countermeasures, and Arms Control (published as a single volume by Princeton University Press). International Awareness and Recognition The growing perception of OTA's utility in government is most recently evident by the scheduling of senior delegations from the United Kingdom and the Federal Republic of Germany, who will meet with OTA staff in early April as part of their formal efforts to establish some institution like OTA in their countries. Senior members of the delegations included: Dr. Sir Gerard Vaughan, MP; Sir Trevor Skeet, MP; Mr. Ian Lloyd, MP; Dr. John Bleby; Dr. Richard Horton (Great Britain); and Dr. Josef Bugl; Hans Matthofer; Dr. Joachim Muller; Prof. Dr. Jurg Bullinger; Dr. Otto Ullrich; Dr. Thomas Petermann; Han-Joachim Munchmeyer (Federal Republic of Germany). TAAC Members Reappointed At the March meeting, the Technology Assessment Board reappointed two members of the Technology Assessment Advisory Council to four-year terms: Mr. William Perry, Partner, H&Q Technology Partners; and Dr. David S. Potter, General Motors Corporation (retired). Mr. Perry is Chairman of TAAC; Dr. Potter is Vice Chairman.
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II. 2 -COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS A. Summarz of FY '85 Com:eletions, Ongoing Work March 31, 1986 FY 185 Products Released Total Formal Assessments 17 Other Special Reports 2 Report Supplements 2 Technical Memoranda 5 Background Papers, Case Studies, or Workshop Proceedings 11 Testimony 24 Staff Memos or Letter Memoranda 20 Administrative Documents 7 New Projects Ap:eroved by TAB Assessments 6 Other (Scope Changes; Special Responses Over 30K) 5 Projects in Process as of March 31, 1986 1. In Press Assessments Other (TM's, Background Papers, etc.) 2. Under TAB Review Assessments Other (Special Reports, TM's, etc.) 3. In Progress Assessments Other 5 3 0 0 21 20 in FY 186, and New Starts Throu~h FY '86 Ql Q2 Q3 Q4 4 5 l 2 0 0 1 2 0 3 7 8 11 5 0 2 4 4 0 1
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3 II. COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS B. Products Released During the Quarter 1. Formal Assessment Reports TECHNOLOGY AND STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT: RETRAINING ADULT DISPLACED WORKERS --The problems of displaced adults have received increasing attention in the 1980's, as social, technological, and economic changes have altered the worklives of millions of Americans. This assessment identifies the reasons for adult displacement, including trade and technology factors, assesses the likely effects of these and other factors on displacement in the future, evaluates existing programs and projects to assist affected workers to find new jobs, examines ways to avoid or reduce displacement (through, for example, preventive retraining, or early response to large layoffs), and identifies options to improve service to displaced workers. The work also examines how new technologies are affecting the skills needed in the workforce and how new educational technologies could help in training and retraining of adults. Preliminary OTA work on how the effects of changing technology are incorporated into BLS labor force predictions was used as background material by the Subcommittee on General Oversight and the Economy of the House Committee on Small Business in its attempts to make the projections more useful to the Congress. Interim Deliverable: Dis laced Homemakers: Pro rams and Polic (Interim Report; Published October 1985 Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Finance Hon. Bob Dole, then Chairman Hon. John Heinz, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Economic Growth, Employment, and Revenue Sharing (Subcommittee now defunct) Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin Hatch, Chairman Hon. Dan Quayle, Chairman, Subcommittee on Employment and Productivity House Committee on Small Business Hon. Parren J. Mitchell, Chairman Hon. Berkley Bedell, Chairman, Subcommittee on General Oversight and the Economy Project Director: Julie Gorte, 6-2205 TECHNOLOGY, PUBLIC POLICY, AND THE CHANGING STRUCTURE OF AMERICAN AGRICULTURE -During the past three decades, technological change and innovation in biological systems, labor-saving mechanization,
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-4 -transportation, and agricultural chemicals have played an important role in increasing agricultural productivity. They have also contributed to changing the very nature of agriculture. Today, farm operators account for only 3 percent of the U.S. population. Twenty percent of all farms now produce 80 percent of the food and fiber in the United States. Increased capital and kinds of skills are needed to sustain farms. Such changes have important implications for society. Technology is only partly responsible for these changes. Public policy has also played a role. However, little is known about which policies in conjunction with technology adoption have speeded up, slowed down, or reversed the trends in structural change. This assessment focuses on future and emerging technologies in other animal, plant, chemical, mechanization, and information areas and their implications for agricultural structure. The possibility of developing technologies for different kinds of agriculture structures is explored. The assessment explores linkages between policy and structure so policymakers can have a clearer understanding of the factors that influence the evolution of the agricultural sector. Interim Deliverable: Special Report for the 1985 Farm Bill --(Published March 1985) Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman, co-signed by Hon. James H. Scheuer, Chairman, Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Agriculture Research, and Environment House Committee on Agriculture Hon. Tom Harkin, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Hon. George E. Brown, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Department Operations, Research, and Foreign Agriculture Hon. Charles Whitley, Chairman, Subcommittee on Forests, Family Farms, and Energy Senate Committee on Small Business Hon. Larry Pressler, Chairman, Subcommittee on Small Business: Family Farm Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Hon. Jesse Helms, Chairman Joint Economic Committee Hon. Roger W. Jepsen, then Chairman Hon. Lee H. Hamilton, then Vice Chairman Hon. James Abdnor, Chairman, Subcommittee on Agriculture and Transportation (now Vice Chairman of the full Committee) Project Director: Mike Phillips, 6-2189
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-5 -PAYMENT FOR PHYSICIAN SERVICES: STRATEGIES FOR MEDICARE --Physicians directly or indirectly account for an estimated 80 percent of expenditures on medical technologies. Efforts to control the use and cost of medical technology have concentrated on hospitals, as evidenced by the current approach unde~ Medicare to pay hospitals according to diagnosis related groups (DRGs). But attention is increasingly turning to physicians, because as gatekeepers, they control much of technology use and because technologies may move out of locations where payment is constrained and into physicians' offices and other ambulatory sites. And Medicare expenditures on physician services have been growing more rapidly than hospital care. In accordance with a provision in the Deficit Reduction Act of 1984 (Public Law 98-369) the Office of Technology Assessment examined alternative methods of paying physicians under the Medicare program, with particular attention to the use and cost of medical technology. Congressional committees are interested in relative fees for different technologies and different physician specialties, incentives for the use of primary care and other technologies, moderation of increases in Medicare expenditures, participation of physicians in Medicare, access to care by Medicare beneficiaries, and quality of care provided. This study examines current patterns of physician expenditures and use, identifies areas of inefficient or inequitable technology use for Medicare beneficiaries, and develops options for physician payment under Medicare to address the problems identified. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Select Committee on Aging Hon. John Heinz, Chairman Hon. John Glenn, Rapking Minority Member Project Director: Jane Sisk, 6-2070 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: January 1986 ALTERNATIVES TO ANIMAL USE IN TESTING, RESEARCH, AND EDUCATION -Approximately 17-24 million animals are used annually for both toxicity testing and biomedical and behavioral research. In a large percentage of cases, these animals are killed during the course of, or following the completion of, the experimental protocol. Toxicity testing and biomedical and behavioral research are two very distinct disciplines, and animal use and its possible alternatives must be examined in light of their differences. This assessment examines the current patterns of acquisition and use of animals in the distinctly different disciplines of toxicity testing and biomedical and behavioral research. In addition, the feasibility and cost of developing technologies that could potentially substitute for animals in either of these areas were evaluated. Since toxicity testing employs about 20 percent of all laboratory animals used annually, OTA analyzed regulatory
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-6 -testing requirements in both the United States and selected foreign countries to determine whether they can be made more uniform in their acceptance of non-animal test results. Finally, this study briefly summarizes the ethical issues concerning animal use in order to help understand the reasons for the current controversy. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin Hatch, Chairman House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Doug Walgren, Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Research, and Technology Senator Alan Cranston Project Director: Gary Ellis, 6-2099 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY: MANAGEMENT, SECURITY, AND CONGRESSIONAL OVERSIGHT --(This report is Vol. II of the OTA assessment of Federal Government Information Technology: Congressional Oversight and Civil Liberties.) The U.S. Government the largest user of computer equipment of any single organization or government in the world --is critically dependent on information technology. Rapid advances in technology --such as microcomputers, computer networking and modeling, videwconferencing, and electronic information exchange --have overtaken much of the policy previously established by Congress to control, oversee, and encourage the management and use of Federal information technology. OTA identified ways that information technology could improve the collection, maintenance, and dissemination of government information through technologies that could revolutionize the public information functions of government. OTA also identified significant unrealized opportunities for congressional use of information technologies in conducting oversight, including: 1) access by congressional committees and staff to agency electronic files, where appropriate; 2) use of computer-based modeling and decision support; 3) videoand computer-conferencing; and 4) electronic tracking of agency and executive actions. Additional Deliverables: Vol. I --Electronic Surveillance and Civil Liberties (Report; published 10/85) Vol. III --Electronic Record Systems and Individual Privacy Vol. IV --Information Technolo and the Social Securit Administration Background Paper)
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7 Requesters: Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Hon. William V. Roth, Chairman House Committee,on the Judiciary Hon. Robert W. Kastenmeier, Chairman, Subcommittee on Courts, Civil Liberties, and the Administration of Justice Project Director: Fred Wood, 6-2240
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-8 -II. B. 2. Other: Technical Memoranda, Background Papers, Workshop Proceedings, Committee Prints, and Administrative Reports POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF SECTION 3 OF THE FEDERAL COAL LEASING AMENDMENTS ACT OF 1976 (Special Report) --Over 19 billion tons of Federal coal have been leased with 16.2 billions tons leased before 1976. About 500 of the more than 600 existing coal leases are over 16 years old, and almost half of the pre-1976 elases remain undeveloped. Section 3 of the Federal Coal Leasing Amendments Act of 1976 condicttions future eligibility for new Federal onshore mineral leases on commercial production from any Federal coal leases held over 10 years. Despite the potential for significant impacts on indvidual firms from disqualification, OTA expects that Section 3 will have minimal effects on competition in the oil and gas industry. Similarly, impacts on coal leasing and production are unlikely to be large. OTA examined a range of alternative legislative options for modifying Section 3 and encouraging the timely development of Federal coal leases including allowing nonproducing lessees to keep their eligibility by paying an annual holding fee. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs Hon. Morris K. Udall, Chairman Hon. Jim Weaver, Chairman, Subcommittee on Mining, Forest Management, and Bonneville Power Administration Project Director: Karen Larsen, 6-2212 TRANSPORTATION OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS: STATE AND LOCAL ACTIVITIES (Special Report} --More than 180 million shipments of hazardous materials are made in the United States each year, about 500,000 each day. Accidents involving hazardous materials occur at least weekly in major metropolitan areas. Concern about the risks involved has motivated public demand for improved emergency response capabilities and strong enforcement of safety rules. OTA looked at the activities that State and local governments are engaged in to help prevent accidents and protect public safety. To plan for accident prevention and to improve their emergency response, States and localities need to know what types of hazardous materials accidents might occur in their areas, which locations have the highest risk, and what types of materials are most likely to be involved. OTA found that the most pressing national need in emergency response is finding an effective way to train first responders to handle different types of hazardous materials. No national guidelines are currently in place, and some of the programs are inadequate. National guidelines are needed to ensure adequate training, and financial assistance for training and for maintaining emergency response capabilities is needed by many localities.
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9 Requesters: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Bob Packwood, then Chairman Hon. Ernest F. Hollings, Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Government Operations Hon. Cardiss Collins, Chairwoman, Subcommittee on Government Activities and Transportation House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. James J. Florio, Chairman, Subcommittee on Commerce, Transportation, and Tourism House Committee on Public Works and Transportation Hon. James J. Howard, Chairman Project Director: Edith Page, 6-2214 MARINE APPLICATIONS FOR FUEL CELL TECHNOLOGIES (Technical Memorandum) Fuel cells --devices for directly converting the chemical energy of a fuel, such as hydrogen or hydrogen-rich gas -may offer advantages for certain marine uses, especially those requiring quiet operation or where power demands constantly change, and for small submarines. However, the marine market is not in itself large enough to drive fuel cell technology development. Fuel cells hold great promise for utility industry applications, but are not expected to be able to penetrate comercial marine markets until they become firmly established in commercial utility or cogeneration applications. Requesters: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. John C. Danforth, Chairman Project Director: Peter Johnson, 6-2066 THE REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT FOR SCIENCE (Technical Memorandum) --In this study, OTA looked at the entire "regulatory environment" for research, analyzed the structure and mechanisms for regulation, and identified emerging policy issues that may require Congressional attention in the future. OTA concludes that the environment in which science is performed today has changed substantially from the environment or postwar times, and even from the 1960s. New issues will continue to emerge that may require the attention of Congress in considering the relationship of research to society. Requesters: House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon. Larry Winn, then Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Nancy Naismith, 6-2214
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-10 -GRASSROOTS CONSERVATION OF BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY IN THE UNITED STATES: BACKGROUND PAPER #1 (Background Paper) --Biological diversity encompasses the full array of plants, animals, and microorganisms on earth. This paper highlights and assesses specific "showcase" examples of grassroots individuals and groups maintaining biological diversity in the United States. These private sector activities are a vital part of U.S. efforts to maintain biological diversity. Frequently grassroots groups undertake activities that the Federal or State agencies cannot or do not address; in other cases, they complement government activities. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Hon. Jesse Helms, Chairman Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Hon. Claiborne Pell House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman House Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries Hon. Walter Jones, Chairman Hon. Joel Pritchard, then Ranking Minority Member Hon. John B. Breaux, Chairman, Subcommittee on Fisheries and Wildlife Conservation and the Environment Hon. Don Young, Subcommittee on Fisheries and Wildlife Conservation and the Environment House Committee on Foreign Affairs Hon. Dante Fascell, Chairman Hon. Don Bonker, Chairman, Subcommittee on International Economic Policy and Trade Hon. Gus Yatron, Chairman, Subcommittee on Human Rights and International Organizations House Committee on Agriculture Hon. E. de la Garza, Chairman Project Director: Susan Shen, 6-2256 MICROELECTRONICS RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT (Background Paper) -Increasing pressures on the U.S. microelectronics industry from international competition and market fluctuations may cause cutbacks in private sector spending for research and development (R&D), at a time when R&D is especially important for the United States to remain competitive. Therefore, U.S. companies are looking to the Federal Government for R&D support, either through direct funding or through Federal policies that ease the way for private support. If both the public and private sectors continue their active research and development programs, technological factors will not limit overall progress for the microelectronics industry for at least 10-15 years. In the next two decades, the primary technological trend in microelectronics is likely to be continued miniaturization of integrated circuits made of silicon; the trend will level off when the minimum dimensions are about one tenth of the smallest size currently in production.
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11 -Requesters: House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Project Director: Arati Prabhakar, 6-2240 SUPERCOMPUTERS: GOVERNMENT PLANS AND POLICIES (Background Paper) -Supercomputers (the name given to the most powerful computers available at any particular time) will continue to be vital to U.S. economic strength and international competitiveness. Supercomputers are vital to basic research and development in the aerospace, automotive, chemical, pharmaceutical, and microelectronic industries. In the past 2 years, the Federal Government has expanded its programs to provide U.S. researchers with broader access to these machines and to encourage the growth and development of advanced scientific computing. Members of the scientific and research communities are concerned that the amount and breadth of applications software necessary to support U.S. research and development are lacking. OTA also found that limited human resources is also a critical factor in the success of government agency programs. Requesters: House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Project Director: Prudence Adler, 6-2240 SECOND REPORT ON THE PROSPECTIVE PAYMENT ASSESSMENT COMMISSION (PROPAC) (Administrative Document) ANNUAL REPORT FOR FISCAL YEAR 1985 (Administrative Document)
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-12 -OTA Staff Papers or Letter Memoranda Date 01/ 13/86 02/10/86 02/18/86 03/07/86 03/24/86 Subject Effects of Replacing Lead with Aromatic Versus Alcohol Octane Enhancers in Gasoline Response to the Centers for Disease Control Critique of OTA's Evaluation of Agent Orange Protocols OTA Staff Analysis of the Final Report of the Advisory Commission on Alternative Means of Financing and Managing Waste Facilities Review of the Concept of Orbit Transfer Vehicles Carrying Materials and Crew from Earth and Mars Response to Theories on a Possible Link Between Chlorine Exposure and Cardiovascular Disease Related OTA Work Ongoing and completed work 1n the Energy and Materials Program Ongoing Health Program Evaluation of Agent Orange Protocol Managing High Level Commercial Radioactive Waste and ongoing work in the Oceans and Environment Program Ongoing and completed work 1n the International Security and Commerce Program General background work 1n the Health_ Program
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13 II. B. 3. Testimony Date 02/18/86 02/19/86 02/20/86 02/21/86 02/24/86 02/26/86 03/11/86 03/19/86 Committee/Chairman Senate Select Committee on Indian Affairs (Senator Mark Andrews) House Committee on Science and Technology (Congressman Don Fuqua) House Committee on Armed Services, Subcommittee on Research and Development (Congressman Melvin Price) House Committee on Energy and Commerce, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment (Congressman Henry A. Waxman) Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, Subcommittee on Energy Research and Development (Senator Pete V. Domenici) House Committee on Science and Technology (Congressman Don Fuqua) House Committee on Armed Services, Subcommittee on Research and Development (Congressman Melvin Price) Senate Committee on Foreign Relations (Senator Richard G. Lugar) Subject/Person Testifying Indian Health Care (Larry Miike) Demographic Trends and the Scientific and Engineering Work Force (Eugene Frankel) Ballistic Missile Defense and Anti-Satellite Technologies (Tom Karas) Indian Health Care (Larry Miike) Renewable Energy/Fuel Cell Systems Integration Act of 1985 (Peter Blair and Peter Johnson) The Regulatory Environment for Science (Marcel La Follette) Conventional Defense Initiatives (Alan Shaw) Biological Diversity and the Problem of Tropical Deforestation (Susan Shen)
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14 -II. C. Other Communication with Congress 1. Formal Briefings, Presentations, Workshops (With Committee Staffs) COMMITTEES OF THE SENATE Finance o Report on Technology and Structural Unemployment o Health Issues Labor and Human Resources o Health Issues COMMITTEES OF THE HOUSE Education and Labor o Occupational health OTHER CONGRESSIONAL OFFICES Senate Majority Leader o Biomedical ethics,. Prospective Payment Assessment Commission, health issues
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15 -II. C. 2. Informal Discussions --Topics In addition to briefings and presentations, informal discussions take place continually, as requested by Members and staff. OTA staff members give updates on ongoing work and provide information that Members and Committees may need relative to legislation pending or under consideration or for hearings and related testimony. Topic Opportunities for structural ceramics Fusion research and development Reclaiming prime farmlands after surface mining Section 3 and federal coal leasing Cogeneration Assessment of the competitiveness of the copper industry Reclamation of Western surface mined lands Electric power wheeling Fuel cells Energy outlook Utility deregulation Oil supply and demand Electric power technologies Advanced materials Clean coal technologies Reemployment report and options Advance notice of mass layoffs Trade adjustment assistance Treatment technologies for hazardous waste Technology transfer to China NATO conventional defense Strategic Defense Initiative Seismic verification Military remote sensing Hearings on appropriate technologies Grain quality study Wood stoves U.S.-Israeli research Fish farming in Nigeria Food irradiation Game ranching Current and upcoming issues in health Prospective Payment Assessment Commission Medical malpractice insurance changes Use of medical screening tests for health/life insurance Treatment costs for AIDS Indian health care issues ESRD dialysis rate reduction and effects on facility operations Dialyzer reuse
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Agent Orange Atomic veterans Export of drugs Causes of cancer 16 Preventive services for the Medicare program Esophageal Reflux prosthesis Quality of health care Extent of occupation-related disease occurring among beneficiaries of the Medicare program Medical computing VDT exposure and reproductive health Drug/alcohol testing in the workplace Cholesterol and coronary artery disease Employee notification of health risks in the workplace Liver transplantation Organ Transplant Task Force Technology dependent children Impacts of the Prospective Payment System on health care quality Paying for capital under Medicare Polygraph Carcinogen regulatory policies Physician payment under Medicare Childhood immunizations Long-term impacts of increased life expectancy at older ages Hearing impairment in the elderly Differential impact of air pollution on the elderly Bias against older patients in computerized medical decisionmaking systems Issues of withdrawal of nutrition support; new cause of death thesis Animal experimentation New reproductive technologies Biotechnology Life sustaining technologies and the elderly Genetically engineered organisms in the environment --scientific questions and legislative approaches New reproductive technologies Infertility Bioethics Social Security information systems management Possible study of the constitution Supercomputers Computer security Management of federal information technology Information technology management and planning Computer modeling and decision support Government foresight Electronic information dissemination National Security Directive 145 on protecting sensitive information in computer and communications systems Automated monitoring of workers' use of computers in the workplace Government whistle blowers
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Outercontinental shelf issues Ocean policy Drug interdiction -17 -Subseabed disposal of high-level radioactive waste Acid rain control costs Hazardous air pollutants Trends in scientific manpower Role of women and minorities in science Private sector/public sector conflicts 1n transportation assistance Deregulation and airline safety Transportation of hazardous materials Aviation safety Water infrastructure Teacher training Access and equity 6 computer use for 'high risk' learners Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of educational technologies Applications of technology for the handicapped Telecommunications and the delivery of instruction to distant sites
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18 DESCRIPTIONS AND REQUESTERS FOR CURRENT OTA ASSESSMENTS AS OF MARCH 31, 1986
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19 -II. D. Descriptions and Requesters of Projects A. IN PRESS AS OF 3/31/86 WESTERN SURFACE MINE PERMITTING AND RECLAMATION --In the seven years since enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA), coal companies have made significant improvements in reclamation technologies and methodologies, and the prospects for the success of surface mine reclamation have brightened. Yet considerable doubts still exist among most parties in the surface mining debate as to the ability to reclaim certain types of land or mitigate particular types of impacts. In particular, concerns have been raised about the costs of, and the short-and long-term prospects for, revegetation and reclamation on lands with: limited precipitation and/or high evapotranspiration rates, slopes exceeding 40 percent, a lack of adequate topsoil material, saline or alkali soil structures (or sodic conditions resulting from lack of topsoil), or a high potential for wind erosion. Debate also continues on the most successful methods for mitigating impacts to the hydrologic regime, to archaeological and paleontological sites, and to wildlife resources. This study assesses the effectiveness of current mining and reclamation technologies and methodologies, and the fairness and effectiveness of Federal programs and policies, in fulfilling the statutory mandates for environmental protection on Federal lands in the West. Methods for evaluating the success of reclamation practices., including the levels and kinds of uncertainty, were studied, as will the relative costs and benefits of various reclamation techniques. An important part of the study is an evaluation of the techniques for reclaiming abandoned mined lands. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs Hon. Morris K. Udall, Chairman Project Director: Jenifer Robison, 6-2134 TECHNOLOGY AND INDIAN HEALTH CARE: EFFECTIVENESS, ACCESS, AND EFFICIENCY --Despite some improvement, the health status of American Indians and Alaska Natives remains substantially below that of the general U.S. population. Because of the Federal Government's special responsibilities for the delivery and financing of health care for nearly one million of the 1.5 million Indians in the U.S., Congress continues to be concerned about the quality, appropriateness, accessibility, and financing of such care. This project will be a comprehensive examination of health technologies and services provided to Indians and of whether those technologies and services are appropriate and adequate in view of the health problems of Indians. The assessment: 1) analyzes the quality and adequacy of data on Indian health status, including trends over time, 2) identifies the types and distribution of technologies and services available.through the Indian Health Service and other providers, 3) determines the desirable range and methods of delivery
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20 -of health-related technologies and services, given our conclusions on health status, and compare this range to the current situation, and 4) develops policy options to improve the selection, provision, financing, and delivery of technologies and services to Indian populations. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chairman Hon. Henry A. Waxman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment Senate Select Committee on Indian Affairs Hon. Mark Andrews, Chairman Hon. John Melcher, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Larry Miike, 6-2070 TECHNOLOGIES FOR DETECTING HERITABLE MUTATIONS --Mutations are permanent changes in the genetic information contained in chromosomes and DNA of cells. When they occur in germ cells --egg or sperm cells -they are passed on to succeeding generations. Always a concern in public health, mutations are becoming a policy issue because of claims that they have been caused by exposures to radiation and chemicals. Little is known about the frequency of human mutations, and evidence is insufficient to decide whether or not external factors contribute in any significant way to the frequency despite the reasonable contention that they probably do. Technologic breakthroughs may make it possible to determine mutation rates directly. The new methods require drawing blood and analyzing proteins or DNA or a particular gene for genetic changes. The assessment: 1) details the status and limits of knowledge about human mutations and mutation frequencies; 2) reviews the current methods used to study human mutations; 3) describes methods now under development and being considered; 4) estimates when each of the new methods might be available for studying human populations and the size of the experiments that would be necessary to produce useful results; and 5) develops policy options to spur the research and application of appropriate methods. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs Hon. Alan K. Simpson, then Chairman Hon. Alan Cranston, Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Project Director: Julie Ostrowsky, 6-2070
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21 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY: ELECTRONIC RECORDS SYSTEMS AND INDIVIDUAL PRIVACY -(This report is one component of the OTA assessment of Federal Government Information Technology: Congressional Oversight and Civil Liberties.) The U.S. government, already a major user of computerized information systems and other information technology, is at the threshold of a major transition to the next generation of this technology. For example, the number of federal computer systems is expected to increase from about 18,000 in 1983 to between 300,000 and one million in 1990. Current government use of these technologies has already generated questions about their impacts on government; the dramatically increased future use will further affect government administration, provision of public information, civil liberties, and the balance of power among branches and levels of government. This study evaluates computer and communication technologies relevant to government information systems, profiles current and evolving federal systems, and assesses the impacts and policy implications of such systems in key areas of concern to Congress. The study determines, to the extent possible, where and how computerized systems are fundamentally changing the administrative process and/or outstripping the existing framework of legal and procedural safeguards to civil liberties and mechanisms for congressional and judicial oversight. Interim Deliverables: Information Technology and the Social Security Administration (Background Paper) Electronic Surveillance and Civil Liberties -(Report; Published October 1985) Management, Security, and Congressional Oversight -(Report; Published February 1986) Request: Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Hon. William V. Roth, Chairman House Committee on the Judiciary Hon. Robert W. Kastenmeier, Chairman, Subcommittee on Courts, Civil Liberties, and the Administration of Justice Project Director: Fred Wood, 6-2240 INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS IN AN AGE OF ELECTRONICS AND INFORMATION This assessment identifies and analyzes trends in the development of the new information technologies to determine those areas where there might be gaps in the laws and practices of intellectual property. It examines how their widespread deployment and use might alter the value of information and thus affect the future creation, production, distribution, use of, and access to information and knowledge based products. It also identifies and evaluates policy strategies -legal, technological, economic, and social -for addressing intellectual property issues in an age of electronics.
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22 -Examples of some of the issue areas included in the analysis are: 1) the legal and institutional issues resulting from rapid technological change; 2) the technological issues that result from the impact that intellectual property law might have on technology; 3) socio-political issues arising from the public/private aspects of information; 4) the economic issues arising from the enhanced value of information and information services; 5) the international issues resulting from the increased flow and value of information acro5s national boundaries; and 6) the ethical issues arising from the conflict between public laws and private practices. Requesters: Senate Committee on the Judiciary Hon. Charles Mee. Mathias, Chairman, Subcommittee on Patents, Copyrights, and Trademarks House Committee on the Judiciary Hon. Peter Rodino, Chairman Hon. Hamilton Fish, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Robert W. Kastenmeier, Chairman, Subcommittee on Courts, Civil Liberties, and the Administration of Justice Hon. Carlos Moorhead, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Courts, Civil Liberties, and the Administration of Justice Project Director: Linda Garcia, 6-2245
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-23 8. IN PROGRESS AS OF 3/31/86 Energy, Materials, and International Security Division EFFECTS OF TECHNOLOGY ON THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC TRANSITION --New technologies, growing international competition in markets once dominated by U.S. suppliers, and changes in the cost and availability of oil and other critical resources may lead to a fundamental change in the structure of the U.S. economy. These changes could also change the utility of major classes of public policy. The analysis conducted for this project will describe ways the national economy may change during the next two decades, explore the ways these changes may alter prospects for employment and profitable investment in different major classes of economic activities, describe how the changes may alter critical aspects of the quality of life in America, and examine the implications of these changes for national policy. The analysis is constructed around seven tightly integrated projects. Six of these are designed to explore plausible ways the economy may move to meet basic market requirements during the next two decades and the nature of the employment and investment opportunities created. The areas covered include: the health industries, agriculture and food processing, construction, transportation and communication, education, and "leisure-time" industries. At least two possibilities are being considered in each case: (1) an extrapolation of current trends, and (2) an analysis of ways the market could be met assuming that new technologies were introduced with no market "imperfections" except those explicitly introduced where markets clearly are inadequate (e.g., regulations designed to protect the environment). This analysis of "potentials" is not a forecast in the conventional sense but is designed to illuminate the range of possible impacts of new technologies. When the "potential" analysis differs significantly from projections based on trends, the work will provide a convenient basis for determining whether or not the divergence results from poorly designed federal programs. A separate project is examining basic manufacturing and service industries not covered elsewhere. Each of these projects will result in a separate publication and an evaluation of specific policy problems identified in the sectors covered. The components will be combined systematically using a simple accounting procedure developed for the project. Where relevant, the results will be compared with major macroeconomic models developed elsewhere. The integrated analysis will be used to examine major national policy issues affecting capital formation, employment, international competition, investments in infrastructure, research and development priorities, and other areas of major national interest.
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24 -Interim Deliverables: International Competitiveness of U.S. Agriculture (Technical Memorandum) --(Requester: Hon. Roger Jepsen, then Chairman, Joint Economic Committee) --Contact Ken Cook, 6-3967. New Construction Technologies (Technical Memorandum) --Contact Bob Gold, 6-3966. Leisure Industries (Technical Memorandum) --Contact Bob Howard, 6-3964 Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Bob Packwood, then Chairman Hon. Ernest Hollings, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Larry Pressler, Chairman, Subcommittee on Business, Trade, and Tourism Senate Committee on the Budget Hon. Pete V. Domenici, Chairman Hon. Lawton Chiles, Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman House Committee on Post Office and Civil Service Hon. William D. Ford, Chairman House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman House Committee on Education and Labor Hon. Carl D. Perkins, then Chairman House Committee on the Judiciary Hon. Peter W. Rodino, Chairman House Committee on Public Works and Transportation Hon. James J. Howard, Chairman House Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs Hon. Fernand J. St Germain, Chairman Hon. Chalmers P. Wylie, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Henry Kelly, 6-3960 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: June 1986 HIGH TECHNOLOGY STRUCTURAL CERAMICS AND POLYMER COMPOSITES Development and use of advanced materials such as high performance ceramics and polymer composites promise dramatic changes in many aspects of our economy. The unique properties and design features of these materials provide the opportunity for greatly increased performance in many products in use today, enhanced manufacturing productivity, and new types of products. Composites used as structural mem~ers in aircraft and ceramics in machine tool bits already have demonstrated some of these large performance gains. The promise of these materials has caused other nations to embark on major development programs. This nation1s ability to maintain long term economic growth and remain competitive will depend to a large extent on how well we take advantage of the opportunities presented by these materials. To do so, however, requires that many technical problems and non-technical barriers be overcome.
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-25 -This assessment will better define the many opportunities for high technology ceramics and polymer composites over the next 15 to 25 years. It will determine the principal technical and related problems that need to be overcome if timely expansion of the commercial use of these materials is to take place. Finally, the study will analyze the broad implications of these high technology materials to future U.S. economic growth and competitiveness. Interim Deliverable: Future Opportunities for Advanced Materials (Technical Memorandum) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. John C. Danforth, Chairman Hon. Ernest F. Hollings, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Slade Gorton, Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon, Manuel Lujan, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Dan Glickman, Chairman, and Hon. Tom Lewis, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Transportation, Aviation, and Materials Project Director: Greg Eyring, 6-2151 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: March 1987 TECHNOLOGIES FOR PREHISTORIC AND HISTORIC PRESERVATION --In recognition of the importance of preserving our prehistoric and historic heritage, Congress over the last eighty years has enacted a variety of laws to protect and preserve U.S. cultural resources. This assessment will provide an overview of technologies for cultural resource management. It will: 1) identify and discuss the most effective current technologies for prehistoric and historic preservation; 2) evaluate the most promising new technologies that could be applied to the problem; and 3) suggest areas for further research and development. To the extent possible, the assessment will also discuss the costs of the technologies and examine any nontechnical constraints on their use. The assessment will focus o~ technologies for: 1) locating, identifying, surveying, and evaluating historic structures and sites and their contents, including archaeological sites; 2) preserving buildings, structures, and landscapes; and 3) measuring the effect of changes in the environment on historic structures, artifacts, sites, and landscapes. It will not discuss the preservation of paintings, books, and other artifacts, except insofar as technologies used in their preservation are applicable to structures and sites. To the extent pertinent to historic preservation, the study will also consider technologies for storing, sharing, and retrieving historic preservation information.
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-26 -Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs Hon. Morris K. Udall, Chairman Hon. Don Young, Ranking Minority Member Hon. John F. Seiberling, Chairman, Subcommittee on Public Lands Hon. Ron Marlenee, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Public Lands Project Director: Ray Williamson, 6-2209 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: July 1986 MAGNETIC FUSION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT --Thermonuclear fusion, the process powering stars and hydrogen bombs, offers the prospect of providing a source of energy having an effectively unlimited fuel supply. Fusion power might turn out to be both safer and more environmentally acceptable than nuclear fission. Great progress in harnessing fusion has been made to date, but a great deal of additional work is required. The Magnetic Fusion Energy Engin_eering Act of 1980 envisaged, but did not appropriate, 25% real increases in fusion research funding for each of the following two years, and a doubling of the overall effort within seven years. By FY 1986, however, the magnetic fusion budget had fallen, in real terms, to two-thirds of the peak value it reached in FY 1977. Shrinking funding profiles are forcing a major reanalysis of the Department of Energy's magnetic fusion research program. OTA will examine the choices which need be made concerning the fusion program, including: 1) how resources might be re-allocated between fusion and other national programs intended to meet some of the same goals (long-term energy supply, stimulation of technology, international scientific prestige, etc.); and 2) how the fusion program could be structured, including the role of international cooperation, once the program's goals and priority have been decided. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon. Manuel Lujan, Jr., Ranking Minority Member Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Hon. James A. McClure, Chairman Hon. J. Bennet Johnston, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Pete V. Domenici Hon. Wendell H. Ford Project Director: Gerald Epstein, 6-2184 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: March 1987 .COMPETITIVENESS OF THE DOMESTIC COPPER INDUSTRY --Copper historically has been an important part of the domestic mineral indsutry and has contributed significantly to the economy, particularly in the
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-27 -Western United States. In recent years, however, a number of factors have combined to reduce the demand for domestic copper in favor of foreign sources of supply. The domestic costs of copper mimin#.S. balance of payments position depends heavily on income from foreign sales of intangibles to counterbalance, if only in part, merchandise deficits. Exports of technology-intensive manufactures --commercial aircraft, power generating equipment, electronic systems -are frequently tied to training and maintenance contracts. New developments in many of the service industries stem directly from technical advances. Increasingly, the Western European nations and Japan offer strong competition in international markets for technologically-based services. The analytical approach in this assessment will be based on that developed in past OTA studies of competitiveness: three to five service industries will be selected for detailed analysis based on business strategies as affected by technological developments, industrial structure, and government policies. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Technology Assessment Board Hon. Morris K. Udall, Vice Chairman Hon. Orrin G. Hatch Congressional Copper Caucus Hon. Barry M. Goldwater, U.S. Senate Hon. Jim Kolbe, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Max Baucus, U.S. Senate Hon. Carl Levin, U.S. Senate Hon. Chic Hecht, U.S. Senate Hon. Barbara F. Vucanovich, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Manuel Lujan, Jr., U.S. House of Representatives Hon. John McCain, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Howard C. Nielson, U.S. House of Representatives Project Director: Jenifer Robison, 6-2134 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: September 1987 INTERNATIONAL COMPETITION IN SERVICE INDUSTRIES -The services have become mainstays of the U.S. economy, both in terms of domestic employment and foreign sales. Many are driven by new technologies. The U.S. balance of payments position depends heavily on income f~om foreign sales of intangibles to counterbalance, if only in part~ merchandise deficits. Exports of technology-intensive manufactures -commercial aircraft, power generating equipment, electronic systems --are frequently tied to training and maintenance contracts. New developments in many of the service industries stem directly from technical advances. Increasingly, the Western European nations and Japan offer strong competition 1n international markets for technologically-based services. The analytical approach in this assessment will be based on that developed in past OTA studies of competitiveness: three to five service industries will be selected for detailed analysis based
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-28 on business strategies as affected by technological developments, industrial structure, and government policies. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Hon. Charles Percy, then Chairman Hon. Charles McC. Mathias, Jr., Chairman, Subcommittee on International Economic Policy Senate Committee on Governmental_ Affairs Hon. William V. Roth, Jr., Chairman House Committee on Small Business Hon. Parren Mitchell, Chairman Hon. Berkley Bedell, Chairman, Subcommittee on General Oversight and the Economy House Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs Hon. John J. LaFalce, Chairman, Subcommittee on Economic Stabilization Project Director: John Alic, 6-2012 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: May 1986 REDUCTION OF INDUSTRIAL HAZARDOUS WASTE --The generation of hazardous waste by industry poses a range of environmental risks and increasingly high costs. About one metric ton of hazardous waste 1s being generated annually for every person in the nation. Only within the past decade has it become clear that the land disposal of hazardous waste is fraught with risks, particularly to groundwater. Waste management is undergoing major changes as a result of government regulatory programs that are making land disposal much more expensive and more restricted. But, to a large extent, there are major uncertainties about how the regulatory program will be implemented and enforced. Liabilities associated with the hazardous waste disposed of in the past are also influencing industry decisions. Cleaning up uncontrolled toxic waste sites by the Superfund program, industry, and the states may require hundreds of billions of dollars over many decades. Current costs to industry to manage its newly generated hazardous waste is probably about $6 billion annually. There is general agreement that reducing the generation of hazardous waste is necessary both from the environmental and the economic perspective. However, the role of government and particularly government regulations to induce industry toward waste reduction is not clear. Government regulation of waste management is shifting away from and "end of the pipe" approach to examining industrial processes and company operations; this shift is of major concern to industry. Thus it is becoming more important to learn how to use non-regulatory approaches (e.g., technical assistance, information transfer, and R&D support) to complement regulatory ones. This assessment will examine and review the technical options to substantially reduce the amount and hazardous nature of industrial hazardous wastes, only some of which may be regulated under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act and state
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-29 -programs. It will also identify and analyze current efforts in waste reduction and will examine the full range of technical, economic, and institutional impediments facing industry in these efforts. The assessment will analyze Federal and state policies and programs which affect waste reduction efforts; and it will identify and evaluate both regulatory and non-regulatory options that Congress can consider for enhancing the extent and pace of waste reduction efforts while avoiding undesirable impacts on employment, profitability, and the international competitiveness of industry. One option that will be considered is the possibility that no further Congressional action may be needed in the near term. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Chairman Hon. Edward M. Kennedy, Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Small Business Hon. Charles W. Stenholm, Chairman Hon. William S. Broomfield, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Nicholas Mavroules, Chairman, Subcommittee on General Oversight and the Economy Hon. Silvio o. Conte, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on General Oversight and the Economy Hon. Ike Skelton, Chairman, Subcommittee on Export Opportunities and Special Small Business Problems House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Hon. James T. Broyhill, Ranking Minority Member Hon. James J. Florio, Chairman, Subcommittee on Commerce, Transportation, and Tourism Hon. Norman F. Lent, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Commerce, Transportation, and Tourism House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Project Director: Joel Hirschhorn, 6-2089 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: June 1986 TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER TO CHINA --The People's Republic of China {PRC) is introducing major changes as it rapidly modernizes its economic system and seeks improved global relationships. Imports of technology and scientific expertise and the encouragement of foreign investment are key elements. This presents economic and strategic opportunities and risks for the United States. China could become a major market for U.S. exports, and technology transfer could enhance economic growth for both countries. Technology transfer could also be a major factor in improving relations and' strengthening China's role in Asia. However, technology transfer can also lead to problems. If relations deteriorate between the U.S. and the PRC, we may regret having provided technology that would strengthen their military. For instance, computers and telecommunication equipment, even if sold for commercial use, could be redirected, or the expertise developed in using them employed in independently
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30 -producing military equipment. Another concern 1s that they may import only enough technology to get a start, and then expand commercially to become a competitor in world markets. This assessment will examine the role of imported science and technology in the plans of the PRC; the technology the U.S. and other nations can supply; the impacts of policies, both for control and promotion,on these transfers; and the security and commercial risks involved. Interim Deliverable: Energy Technology Transfer to China (Technical Memorandum) (Published September 1985) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Hon. Jake Garn, Chairman Hon. William Proxmire, Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chairman Hon. James Broyhill, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Al Swift, Chairman, Special Subcommittee on U.S.-Pacific Rim Trade Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (endorsement) Hon. Dave Durenberger, Chairman Hon. Patrick Leahy, Vice Chairman Project Director: Alan Crane, 6-2105 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: December 1986 ALTERNATIVES FOR IMPROVING NATO'S DEFENSE RESPONSE Recent initiatives to improve NATO's defenses have focused on "follow-on forces attack" (FOFA), a tactical interdiction mission that aims to defeat an invasion by attacking enemy forces while they are moving toward the battle area, and a related interdiction mission that would support FOFA. U.S. programs to develop a capability for deep interdiction may be able to substantially increase NATO's nonnuclear defense capabilities. Central to these programs are new "smart" conventional munitions. The U.S. presently spends hundreds of millions of dollars annually on research on weapons and support systems for interdiction; eventual procurements could total hundreds of billions. Yet there exists to date no comprehensive study of interdiction and its implications for NATO. This OTA assessment is developing a comprehensive appraisal of the military and technical risks and opportunities of applying various alternative technologies to the "deep interdiction" capability in NATO, with particular attention to possible implications for Alliance cohesion and cooperation. The study 1s focused on comparing alternative new munitions to the existing munitions, and other issues such as aircraft and missile platforms and target acquisition systems will be reviewed. Unsolved technical problems will be identified and assessed. Soviet doctrine and U.S. and Allied strategy and doctrine will be reviewed to assess the
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-31 -military value of various approaches to interdiction, and possible Soviet responses. Finally, the project will identify and assess possible U.S. policy options for developing this capability. Interim Deliverable: Technologies for NATO's Follow-on Forces Attack Concept (Special Report) (Classified version submitted to Committee 2/86; unclassified version forthcoming) Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Foreign Affairs Hon. Dante Fascell, Chairman Hon. William S. Broomfield, Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Armed Services Hon. Les Aspin, Chairman Hon. William Dickinson, Ranking Minority Member Senate Committee on Armed Services (affirmation of interest) Hon. Barry Goldwater, Chairman Hon. Sam Nunn, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Alan Shaw, 6-2018 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: December 1986 STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE SURVIVABILITY AND SOFTWARE --This project will attempt to meet mandated study objectives by carrying out three major tasks: 1) update of the 1985 OTA Report on New Ballistic Missile Defense Technologies with respect to the technologies currently being researched under the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI). The work of the earlier report will not be repeated, but rather special attention will be given to filling in gaps in that Report and to reporting on technical progress made in the intervening two years; 2) examination of the best currently available information on the prospects for functional survival against preemptive attack of alternative ballistic missile defense system architectures currently being studied under the SDI; and 3) analysis of the issues involved in the question of whether it is feasible to develop reliable software to perform the battle management tasks required by such system architectures. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Mandated by P.L. 99-190 Project Director: Tom Karas, 6-2014 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: June 1987 Health and Life Sciences Division TECHNOLOGIES TO MAINTAIN BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY --Maintaining biological diversity of plants and animals is both a matter of insurance and
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32 -investment necessary to sustain and improve agriculture, to keep open future options for medical discoveries, and as the raw material for industrial innovation and genetic engineering. Agricultural development needs wild plants as a source of new genes to increase yields, to improve disease resistance, and to increase the ability of crops to withstand extreme environmental stresses. Wild plants are used by the pharmaceutical industry as sources of valuable compounds that, once discovered in nature, sometimes can be synthesized in the laboratory. Animal physiology affords many clues to the origins and nature of human ailments. For example, the cotton-topped marmoset, a species of monkey susceptible to lymphatic cancer, is helping to produce a potent anticancer vaccine. Genetic engineering, an emerging technology with great potentials for agriculture, depends on biological diversity for the raw material to engineer. Thus loss of diversity could reduce the potential opportunities that this technology offers. But while the importance of diverse biological resources is receiving increasing attention, diversity appears to be declining and valuable reservoirs of germ plasm are disappearing. In order to identify opportunities to maintain biological diversity, OTA will: 1) assess the status of biological diversity and its rates of change; 2) assess the economic, social, ecological, and political implications of a decline in biological diversity; 3) assess technologies (both in situ and ex situ) to maintain plant and animal biological diversity; 4) assess the role of institutions and u.s.-funded agencies (e.g., U.N. and World Bank) in developing and transferring beneficial technologies for maintaining biological diversity; and 5) identify policy options that will facilitate the development and use of such technologies to maintain biological diversity. Interim Deliverables: Grassroots Conservation of Biolo ical Diversit in the United States (Background Paper #1; published 2 86) Assessing Biological Diversity in the United States: Data Considerations (Background Paper #2) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Hon. Jesse Helms, Chairman Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Hon. Claiborne Pell House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman House Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries Hon. Walter Jones, Chairman Hon. Joel Pritchard, then Ranking Minority Member Hon. John B. Breaux, Chairman, Subcommittee on Fisheries and Wildlife Conservation and the Environment Hon. Don Young, Subcommittee on Fisheries and Wildlife Conservation and the Environment
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-33 House Committee on Foreign Affairs Hon. Dante Fascell, Chairman Hon. Don Bonker, Chairman, Subcommittee on International Economic Policy and Trade Hon. Gus Yatron, Chairman, Subcommittee on Human Rights and International Organizations House Committee on Agriculture Hon. E. de la Garza, Chairman I Project Director: Susan Shen, 6-2256 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: September 1986 INTEGRATED RENEWABLE RESOURCES MANAGEMENT FOR U.S. INSULAR AREAS --U.S. insular areas in the Caribbean (Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands) and the Pacific (Guam, American Samoa, Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas, and the Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands) have experienced considerable historical land resource degradation. Freshwater supplies may be highly variable and tropical soils and waters can be relatively infertile, requiring special management consideration. Today they rely heavily on food imports, and many local food production technologies and incentives have been lost. The U.S., Hawaii, and territorial governments have voiced commitments to greater food production diversity and selfsufficiency. Activities in Hawaii provide models of these developments. The small size and limited resources of these insular areas require that land planning consider the capability of sites to sustain agriculture and aquaculture; the probable impacts of development on other resources; and alternatives to traditional management schemes that may be more appropriate to the economies and ecologies of these areas. Technologies designed for temperate, continental agriculture and aquaculture --frequentfy dependent on relatively low cost energy supplies, large capital outlays, and well-developed markets --typically are not suitable for tropical insular areas. Reaping sustained benefits from food production developments requires technologies appropriate to resource characteristics and incentive schemes appropriate to cultural settings that encourage integrated development and management of island resources. In order to assess technologies for insular renewable resource management and development, OTA will: 1) review data on freshwater demands, supplies and uses and assess water supply enhancement and conservation technologies; 2) assess agricultural technologies given the availability and quality of water and land supplies; 3) assess aquaculture technologies alone and in combination with agricultural technologies; and 4) assess maricultural technologies for their suitability in the insular settings; 5) identify integrated land capability analysis technologies appropriate to island resource development; and 6) assess certain opportunities in case studies that include implementation action plans.
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34 -Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Hon. James A. McClure, Chairman Hon. Spark Matsunaga House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs Hon. Morris K. Udall, Chairman Hon. Antonio B. Won Pat, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Insular Affairs Project Director: Alison Hess, 6-2198 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: August 1986 LOW-RESOURCE AGRICULTURE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES --Most people in developing countries are subsistence farmers who cannot obtain or afford the expensive fertilizers and pesticides upon which the highyield (Green Revolution) technologies are based. Thus, as populations grow and fuel prices rise, low-resource agricultural technologies are receiving increased attention from donors and researchers. For example, international donors such as the Peace Corps and the World Bank are giving high priority to research and development projects that enhance rather than replace low-resource, traditional farming methods. This is particularly true for programs in Africa where subsistence farmers hold the key to increasing food production and where the continuing need for massive food aid demonstrates the failure of many past agricultural, development assistance and resource protection policies. This OTA assessment will build upon the results of a previous Technical Memorandum, Africa Tomorrow: Issues in Technology, Agriculture, and U.S. Foreign Aid. By examining low-resource agricultural technologies world-wide, OTA will help Congress evaluate programs and formulate policies related to both U.S. agriculture and foreign policy. In order to do this, OTA will: 1) determine which of these technologies can increase African food production in socio-economically and environmentally sustainable ways; 2) identify the U.S. role in technology development and transfer; 3) assess actual and potential benefits to the U.S. from participation in international agricultural research on low-resource methods; and 4) evaluate certain aspects of the Sahel Development Program as a case study in U.S. public and private assistance to Africa. Interim Deliverable: Continuing the Commitment: Sahel Development Program (Special Report)
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-35 -Request or Affirmation of Interest: Technology Assessment Board Hon. Morris K. Udall, Vice Chairman Hon. Edward M. Kennedy Hon. Orrin G. Hatch Hon. Cooper Evans Hon. Claiborne Pell House Committee on Agriculture Hon. E. (Kika) de la Garza, Chairman House Committee on Foreign Affairs Hon. Dante B. Fascell, Chairman (endorsement) House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon. James H. Scheuer, Chairman, Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Agriculture Research, and Environment House Select Committee on Hunger Hon. Mickey Leland, Chairman Hon. Marge Roukema, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Phyllis Windle, 6-2265 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: June 1987 EVALUATION OF AGENT ORANGE PROTOCOL --As mandated by PL 96-151, reviews epidemiologic studies regarding long-term health effects of veterans exposed to dioxins in Vietnam. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Mandated by PL 96-151. Project Director: Hellen Gelband_, 6-2070 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: Indeterminate TECHNOLOGY AND CHILD HEALTH --This project will bring together the current evidence on the effectiveness and costs of health care technologies in promoting and maintaining children's health. It will examine current patterns of availability of these technologies and barriers to their appropriate use. The role of Federal policies, including Medicaid, Maternal and Child Health, and the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) program, in providing access to preventive and therapeutic technologies will be examined. A range of illness prevention and therapeutic technologies is available at every phase of childhood and the prenatal period. Some, applied in the prenatal period, can reduce the risk of neonatal mortality and morbidity; others, applied later in the child's life, may prevent illnesses that typically manifest themselves in adulthood. New medical technology has also transformed formerly fatal childhood diseases into serious chronic illnesses, whose victims remain technology-dependent for extended periods of time. It is often feasible for these children to be cared for in the home, provided the financial and supportive resources are available. The availability of these life saving
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36 -technologies raises questions about the private and public financing and organization of services for this small but growing population. This project will emphasize study of illness prevention _technologies, including non-medical technologies such as promotion of safe behavior (e.g., seat-belt use) and improved nutrition. Among the preventive technologies to be considered will be prenatal screening, monitoring, and care; infant screening; immunizations; and early-childhood screening. Therapeutic technologies will include neo-natal intensive care and pediatric home care for technology-dependent children. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Hon. Henry A. Waxman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment Hon. Edward R. Madigan, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment Hon. Thomas J. Tauke Senate Committee an Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Chairman Senate Committee on Finance Hon. Bob Packwood, Chairman Hon. Russell B. Long, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Judith Wagner, 6-2070 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: March 1987 LIFE-SUSTAINING TECHNOLOGIES AND THE ELDERLY --Recent technological advances in the treatment of chronic disease and acute illness, combined with greater access to such care, make it possible to keep persons alive who might never have survived in the past. One result is that more older persons than ever before are surviving to the oldest ages (75 and over). These advances, however, are accompanied by complex legal, ethical, and financial issues concerning the definition of death, appropriate use of life-sustaining technologies, quality of life, patients' rights, surrogate decisionmaking, and the allocation of federal resources. Data indicate that up to 30 percent of all Medicare reimbursements (more than $57 billion in 1983) are made for care of older Americans in their last year of life; half of all nursing home costs are paid by federal Medicaid dollars. This assessment is examining these technological advances and their implications for the elderly. It will: 1) provide a classification of life-sustaining technologies and describe their development, including prospects for the future; 2) evaluate different technologies that are now applied in different situations and settings (e.g., end-stage renal dialysis, resuscitation, ventilation, alimentation, etc.); 3) describe the elderly subpopulations that are affected; 4) review ethical problems in different settings and situations {hospital, nursing home,
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-37 residence); 5) evaluate the ethical issues related to patients' rights; 6) present data on attitudes toward life-sustaining technologies and patients' rights (professional associations, groups representing the elderly, surveys of the public and health care providers, etc.); 7) review methods for determining mental competence and surrogate decisionmaking for the demented elderly; 8) evaluate federal and State laws regarding patients' rights, surrogate decisionmaking, living wills, etc.; and 9) review data and issues concerning federal and other public costs related to current and potential applications of life-sustaining technologies. Interim Deliverable: Surrogate Decisionmaking (Background Paper) (shared effort with Disorders Causing Dementia) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Special Committee on Aging Hon. John Heinz, Chairman House Select Committee on Aging Hon. Edward R. Roybal, Chairman Project Director: Robert Harootyan, 6-2095 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: April 1986 DISORDERS CAUSING DEMENTIA --The economic, social, and health problems associated with disorders that cause deterioration of mental function (dementia) are growing rapidly. Current estimates of the cost of providing long-term care nationwide are approximately $30 billion annually for nursing homes and another $14 billion for other forms 0983); with $12 billion derived from Federal sources (Medicare, Medicaid, Veterans Administration, etc.). Disorders leading to dementia are estimated to account for over half of these costs. These figures, and the other costs associated with dementia (emotional distress among friends and family, costs of acute medical care, including diagnosis, and income lost due to the disease) threaten to rise rapidly as the proportion of very old people (over 80) in the population continues to increase much faster than other age groups. This assessment is considering Federal policy relating to two major Federal functions: l) support of research intended to provide treatment or means of prevention, and 2) financing and monitoring of long-term care for those who have dementia. The assessment is surveying the status of basic biomedical research and health services research, and will evaluate the methods for providing longterm care of those who develop dementia. The assessment of longterm care will include discussion of various options: home care, day care, respite care, adoptive care, and domiciliary care, in addition to nursing home care. Particular attention will be focused on evaluating methods for optimizing care of demented patients in the various settings (including Federal and private responsibilities for financing and assuring quality care.)
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38 -Interim Deliverable: Surrogate Decisionmaking --(Background Paper) (shared effort with Life Sustaining Technologies and the Elderly) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Chairman Senate Special Committee on Aging Hon. John Heinz, Chairman Hon. Larry Pressler Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs Hon. Alan K. Simpson, then Chairman Senate Committee on Finance Hon. Bob Dole, then Chairman Hon. Bill Bradley House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon. Larry Winn, Jr., then Ranking Minority Member Hon. Albert Gore, Jr., then Member Hon. Joe Skeen House Select Committee on Aging Hon. Edward R. Roybal, Chairman Senator Howard Metzenbaum Project Director: Robert Cook-Deegan, 6-2034 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: July 1986 NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN BIOTECHNOLOGY --In the past 10 years the growth of biotechnology has been explosive. Large and small firms have invested billions of dollars in the technology across a broad array of applications. Advances in basic research are equally impressive. A number of new techniques are in development or have reached the market that will improve the detection of cancer and a variety of genetic diseases; others will improve the treatment of these diseases. For example, a diagnostic test for the genetic disease Huntington's Chorea is close, and Factor VIII,~ blood clotting factor, may soon be available to treat hemophiliacs. Agricultural applications include improved resistance to plant pests and pesticides, and nutritional enhancement of existing food crops. Biotechnology has great promise for numerous applications both now and in the future; there is also concern about the potential consequences of these applications. This assessment will focus on several interrelated areas: the directions in which the technology is developing including environmental and medical applications; the social utility of these applications; and the implications of the technology for intellectual property law. Although separate areas, assessment of each is dependent on background knowledge in the others; hence they are combined in one assessment.
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39 Several questions with regard to environmental applications need to be answered. Are the environmental ramifications of the deliberate or accidental release of genetically engineered organisms being adequately reviewed under the existing regulatory structure? How well can the levels of risk be predicted? How much and what kind of research is being done by regulatory agencies, the academic community, and industry? What regulatory criteria should be used to evaluate risk? Closely tied to this issue is public perception. How do people perceive the risks of biotechnology? What kind of information is widely disseminated? Is information targeted to specific groups? Is there a need for specific changes in education? What are the economic and social impacts of the patterns of development of biotechnology? Has the need for capital and the types of firms developing products influenced the types of products, especially in agriculture? Is the technology being transferred in a manner that will benefit not only highly developed nations but also lesser developed countries? How can the Federal government encourage the development of products that could directly benefit the third world and individuals with diseases of rare occurrence? New techniques for diagnosing inherited diseases are being developed. What is the status of these technologies? Are there special problems associated with their use because of the time lag between the ability to diagnose and the ability to treat diseases? The adequacy and limit.ations of intellectual property law vis-a-vis biotechnology need assessment. Do present criteria for utility patents apply to all living organisms produced by biotechnology? Are there special considerations in the deposit of these products? How long should they be stored? Who should have access? When is experimental use of the products infringement? Is Public Law 96-517, the patent law that allows research institutions to apply for patents on research results, equitable to all parties concerned? Are patient rights in experimental and clinical settings being adequately protected? Interim Deliverables: Genetic Issues in Environmental A lications of Geneticall Altered Organisms Background Paper) (Contact Val Giddings, 6-2289) Commercial Development of Tests for Human Genetic Diseases (Workshop) (Contact Tony Holtzman, 6-2070) Human Biological Materials in Research and Commerce (Background Paper) (Contact Lisa Raines, 6-3393} Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Senate Committee on the Budget Hon. Lawton Chiles, Ranking Minority Member
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-40 -Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Hon. Dave Durenberger, Chairman, Subcommittee on Toxic Substances and Environmental Oversight Project Director: Gary Ellis, 6-2099 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: April 1988 Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division NEW COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY: IMPLICATIONS FOR PRIVACY AND SECURITY -The Federal Government, the largest single user of information technology equipment, is facing major changes in the nature and uses of communications technology. New generations of products --such as local and wide area networks, software-controlled switching, digital communications integrated with computers, and satellite and fiber optic transmission --each bring much greater capability to managers and users for accessing, manipulating, and transmitting information. In addition, the government, like the private sector, is rapidly expanding the number of ways in which it uses information technology to accomplish its business. These new capabilities and uses challenge the integrity of the government's information system. This study is evaluating two sets of these challenges that are essentially oppJsite sides of the same coin; the implications of increasingly advanced telecommunications systems for the ~rivacy of workers; and the security and vulnerability of these systems to unauthorized use. The study examines new and prospective capabilities of communications technology, assesses their impact on privacy and security, and analyzes how the combination of technical, administrative, and legal safeguards can cope with privacy and security implications. Requesters: House Committee on Government Operations Hon. Jack Brooks, Chairman House Committee on the Judiciary, Subcommittee on Civil and Constitutional Rights Hon. Don Edwards, Chairman Project Director: Charles Wilk, 6-2240 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: September 1986 WASTES IN THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT: THEIR MANAGEMENT AND DISPOSAL --Due to lower dispo1>al costs relative to other alternatives, and increasing public opposition to land-based disposal alternatives, it is likely that pressure to use the ocean for waste disposal will continue or increase. As coastal areas of the United States have become more developed, the amounts of sewage sludge generated from municipal treatment plants and of dredged material from ports and harbors have increased. Disposal of both waste types, especially
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41 -sewage sludge, at ocean dumpsites has been controversial but also has increased markedly in the last few decades. There also have been proposals to use the oceans for the disposal of different types of nuclear waste and for at-sea incineration of hazardous synthetic organics such as PCB's. The assessment is exam1n1ng the different technologies used or proposed for disposal of different types of waste in the ocean. Primary emphasis is on sewage sludge, dredged material, low-and high-level radioactive waste, and some industrial wastes that are compatible with ocean disposal. The study is addressing policy issues related to the role of the oceans within an overall waste management context, alternative strategies for managing these wastes in coastal areas, the pretreatment of wastes prior to disposal, and research and development priorities. The environmental, economic, international, and institutional implications of different policy options will be evaluated. Requesters: House Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries Hon. Walter B. Jones, Chairman Hon. Edwin B. Forsythe, then Ranking Minority Member Hon. Mario Biaggi, Chairman, Subcommittee on Merchant Marine Hon. Norman D'Amours, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Oceanography House Committee on Public Works and Transportation Hon. James J. Howard, Chairman Hon. Gene Snyder, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Robert A. Roe, Chairman, Subcommittee on Water Resources Hon. Arlan Stangeland, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Water Resources Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Bob Packwood, then Chairman Hon. Ernest Hollings, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Howard Levenson, 6-2132 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: October 1986 TECHNOLOGIES TO CONTROL ILLEGAL DRUG TRAFFIC -Control of illegal drugs entering the United States from foreign countries is an important part of federal drug law enforcement efforts. The detection and seizure of drugs at U.S. borders depends on a number of advanced technologies, including radar and other sensing devices and specialized ships and aircraft. The Customs Service and the Coast Guard, the two agencies with primary responsibility for monitoring U.S. borders, are devoting an increasing share of their resources to intercepting illegal drugs. A number of other federal agencies -including the Drug Enforcement Administration, the Border Patrol, the Federal Aviation Administration, and the Department of Defense --assist interdiction programs. Technical and organizational improvements could increase the effectiveness of drug interdiction efforts. There are proposals to purchase additional equipment for Customs Service and Coast Guard programs; to develop
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42 -and introduce new, more sophisticated technical systems; and to increase military assistance through the loan of military hardware and greater participation of armed forces personnel in drug control act1v1t1es. This assessment is evaluating current and proposed technologies for drug interdiction, their cost-effectiveness, and their most appropriate use in controlling illegal drug traffic. Requesters: Senate Committee on Appropriations Hon. Mark O. Hatfield, Chairman Hon. John c. Stennis, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Alfonse M. D'Amato Hon. Paul Laxalt Hon. James Abdnor Hon. Mark Andrews Hon. Ernest F. Hollings Hon. Lawton Chiles Hon. Dennis DeConcini Hon. Daniel K. Inouye Project Director: Peter Johnson, 6-2066 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: December 1986 TECHNOLOGIES FOR EXPLORING AND DEVELOPING SEABED RESOURCES IN THE EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONES --The United States assumed control of ocean resources within 3 billion acres of the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) seaward 200. miles in 1983. Prospects for petroleum and non-fuel mineral resources within the EEZ are considered to be high, but little is actually known of the seabed resource potential within this vast area. Exploration and survey of the EEZ requires highly sophisticated remote sensing both above and below the ocean. The job is enormous and is expected to be very expensive. Several questions are key to the assessment and development of living and non-living resources and the protection of the marine environment: 1) What is currently known about marine resources and their associated environments in the EEZ; 2) What are the current act1v1t1es in charting, surveying, exploring, and conducting research in the EEZ; 3) What technologies are required to explore and develop marine resources; 4) What would be needed to ensure environmental protection in the event of seabed development; 5) In what economic context should the marine resources of the EEZ be placed in reference to world markets and the economy; and 6) Are there international implications for developing seabed resources 1n the margins of the EEZ. Requesters: House Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries Hon. Walter B. Jones, Chairman Hon. Barbara A. Mikulski, Chairwoman, Subcommittee on Oceanography Hon. Mike Lowry, Chairman_, Subcommittee on Panama Cana/Outer Continental Shelf
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43 -House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Project Director: James Curlin, 6-2077 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: April 1987 HAZARDOUS MATERIALS TRANSPORTATION: TECHNOLOGY ISSUES --Ensuring public safety during transportation of hazardous materials and wastes has been of increasing concern for some time. Undocumented estimates of the quantity of hazardous commodities shipped annually range to 4 billion tons. Given the estimates of the large quantities shipped, the safety record is good. However, great damage does occasionally occur. A primary government interest is ensuring public and environmental safety while facilitating movement of these commodities vital to the Nation's economy. This assessment is directed toward three fundamental issues: 1) the adequacy of containers used in the transportation of hazardous materials; 2) the adequacy of the information systems used to track commodity transport and keep safety records for planni~g purposes and regulation; and 3) the appropriate levels of training for personnel responsible for the transportation of hazardous materials emergency response. Interim Deliverable: State and Local Activities in Trans ortation of Hazardous Materials (Special Report; published 3 86) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Bob Packwood, then Chairman Hon. Ernest F. Hollings, Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Government Operations Hon. Cardiss Collins, Chairwoman, Subcommittee on Government Activities and Transportation House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. James J. Florio, Chairman, Subcommittee on Commerce, Transportation, and Tourism House Committee on Public Works and Transportation Hon. James J. Howard, Chairman Project Director: Edith Page, 6-2214 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: April 1986 SPECIAL RESPONSES ADVANCE NOTICE FOR PLANT CLOSINGS AND MASS LAYOFFS (Workshop/Staff Paper) --(Requested by: Congressman William D. Ford, Congressman William Clay; Congressman Silvio O. Conte; and Senator Orrin G. Hatch)
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44 -Project Director: Julie Gorte, 6-2205 Projected Completion Date: June 1986 U.S. GRAIN HANDLING TECHNOLOGIES AND EXPORT QUALITY STANDARDS: PART I) --(Mandated by the Food Security Act of 1985) Project Director: Mike Phillips, 6-2189 Projected Completion Date: June 1986 NURSE PRACTITIONERS, CERTIFIED NURSE MIDWIVES, AND PHYSICIANS ASSISTANTS: QUALITY, ACCESS, ECONOMIC, AND PAYMENT ISSUES (Case Study) --(Requested by: Senate Committee on Appropriations, Hon. Mark Hatfield, Chairman; Hon. Daniel K. Inouye.) Project Director: Gloria Ruby, 6-2070 Projected Completion Date: April 1986 MENTAL HEALTH SERVICES FOR CHILDREN (Background Paper) --(Requested by: Senate Committee on Appropriations, Hon. Mark Hatfield, Chairman; Hon. Daniel Inouye.) Project Director: Denise Dougherty, 6-2070 Projected Completion Date: April 1986 PROSPECTIVE PAYMENT ASSESSMENT COMMISSION (Mandated by.Public Law 98-21, Section 601.) Project Director: Anne Burns, 6-2070 Projected Completion Date: Indeterminate MONITORING OF AIDS-RELATED ACTIVITIES -(Requested by: Hon. Henry A. Waxman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment, House Committee on Energy and Commerce; Hon. Ted Weiss, Chairman, Subcommittee on Intergovernmental Relations and Human Resources, House Committee on Government Operations. Project Director: Larry Miike, 6-2070 Projected Completion Date: Indeterminate FEDERAL CARCINOGEN POLICIES (Technical Memorandum) --(Requested by: House Committee on Government Operations, Hon. Jack Brooks, Chairman, and Chairman Weiss, Subcommittee on Intergovernmental Relations and Human Resources) Project Director: Karl Kronebusch, 6-2070 Projected Completion Date: November 1986 HEALTH EFFECTS OF PASSIVE SMOKING (Staff Paper) --(Requested by: Senate Committee on Government Affairs, Hon. Ted Stevens, Chairman, Subcommittee on Civil Service, Post Office, and General Services) Project Director: Hellen Gelband, 6-2070 Projected Completion Date: April 1986
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45 -ARTIFICAL INTELLIGENCE R&D (Staff Paper) -(Requested by: House Committee on Science and Technology, Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman.) Project Director: Fred Weingarten Projected Completion Date: June 1986 MACHINE TRANSLATION OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL INFORMATION (Background Paper) -(Requested by: House Committee on Science and Technology, Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman, and Hon. Manuel Lujan, Ranking Minority Member) Project Director: Fred Weingarten, 6-2240 Projected Completion Date: April 1986 THE STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF STANDARDIZED TESTS AS MEASUREMENT TOOLS FOR FEDERAL EDUCATION POLICY (Technical Memorandum) -(Requested by: Senate Committee qn Labor and Human Resources, Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Chairman, Hon. Edward Kennedy, Ranking Minority Member.) Project Director: Nancy Naismith, 6-2214 Projected Completion Date: June 1986 RESEARCH FUNDING AS AN INVESTMENT: CAN WE MEASURE THE RETURNS? (Technical Memorandum) --(Requested by: House Committee on Science and Technology, Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman, Hon. Larry Winn, Jr., then Ranking Minority Member.) Project Director: Gene Frankel, 6-2173 Projected Completion Date: Completed, in press.
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46 -II. E. New Assessments Approved During the Quarter o Magnetic Fusions Research and Development (3/13/86) o Com etitiveness of the Domestic Copper Industr (3/13/86) o SDI Survivability and Software (3/13 86; mandated study) o Part I: U.S. Grain Handlin Technolo ies and Grain Qualit Standards (3 13 86; mandated study) o Technologies for Exploring and Developing Seabed Resources in the Exclusive Economic Zone (3/13/86)
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Publication Briefs
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OTA REPO.RT BRIEF February 1986 .Technology and Structural Unemployment: Reemploying Displaced Adults Millions of American workers are losing their jobs 0<>rh !'':!ar because of structural changes in the U.S. and world economies. Some of them-especially younger workers with skills in demand or the right education al backgrountl-get right back to work in new jobs. Others remain out of work for months, even years. Many of the displaced are middle-aged unskilled or semiskilled manufacturing workers, with long and stable job histories. Mechanisms for worker adjustment-such as job training programs and education for adults-have not kept up. Over the S years from 1979 to 1984, 11.S million American workers lost jobs because of plant shut downs or relocations, rising productivity, or shrinking output, according to a 1984 survey by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). In 1984, one-quarter of those who had held their previous jobs for 3 or mdre years were still unemployed. Of those who found new jobs, at least half took cuts in earnings. Although manufacturing now accounts for less than 20 percent of U.S. employment, nearly half of all workers displaced from 1979 to 1984 worked in manufacturing industries, especially those hard hit by international competition. The service jobs that the U.S. economy has created in the past few years are not equivalent to the old manufacturing jobs. The pay is not as good (average hourly pay in the service sector was $7.52 in 1984, compared with $9.18 in manufac turing), and the better service jobs require skills or edu cation that most displaced workers do not have. Given the incentives leading U.S. firms to invest overseas and take advantage of cheap labor, or to use less labor at home, displacement is bound to continue. Manufacturing jobs-especially production jobs probably will continue to decline. Within manufactur ing, the most vulnerable jobs are those of unskilled and semiskilled production workers. These jobs are not only the easiest to automate, they are also the easiest to move overseas. In all sectors of the economy, service as well as manufacturing, manual labor and rou tine mental tasks are vulnerable to computer-based technology. The Federal Government has supplemented its tradi tional employment programs with new assistance for displaced workers, mainly through Title III of the Job Training Partnership Act of 1982 (JTP A). Reports on the first 2 years of operation show that JTP A programs are helping displaced workers find new jobs. However, it is likely that no more than S percent of those eligi ble are being served. It appears that vocational skills training is not strongly emphasized. Retraining in basic educational skills is mostly neglected, although about one-fifth of all adult workers probably need improve ment of their basic skills to get jobs with good possi bilities for advancement. To help provide the skilled work force that American industries need to maintain competitiveness in the world economy, the program will have to reach many more displaced workers, and emphasize training-particularly basic skills training-more strongly. Educational technologies offer considerable promise in helping adults overcome basic skills deficiencies. Another group of displaced people, with especially difficult problems of finding adequate jobs, is displaced homemakers. These are women whose main job has been home and family, but who now must support themselves because of divorce, widowhood, disabili ty, or long-term unemployment of their spouse, or loss of eligibility for public assistance. The population of displaced homemakers is 2.2 to 4 million, and the number is growing. Federal assistance to displaced home makers recently was substantially increased in the Carl D. Perkins Vocational Education Act of 1984. Yet sup port for the programs serving this group is still small in relation to their numbers. Barriers to employment are higher for displaced homemakers than for mainstream displaced workers. Policy options include congressional actions that could bring prompt effective services to workers in plants that are dosing, enhance both vocational and basic education and training in JTP A and other pro grams, improve delivery of assistance to displaced homemakers, improve labor market and occupation al information, encourage em.ployers to offer workers chances at both vocational and basic education while they are still employed, and emphasize research on the effects of technological change on jobs. Copies of the OT A report, 'Technology and Structural Unemployment: Reemploying Displaced Adults," are avail able from the U.S. Government Printing Office. The GPO stock number is 052-003-01017-8: the price is S15.00. Copies of the report for congressional use are available by calling 4-8996. Summaries of reports are available at no charge from the Office of Technology Assessment. The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress whose basic function is to help legislators anticipate and p~an for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OTA, U.S. Congress, Washington, DC 20510. Phone: 202/224-9241. John H. Gibbons, Director.
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OTA REPORT BRIEF February 1986 Payment for Physician Services: Medicare expenditures for physician services are one of the fastest growing components of the Federal budget. During the 1980s, total Medicare expenditures for physician services rose an average of 16 percent per year, reaching an estimated $19 billion in fiscal year 1985. Unless steps are taken to moderate it, sim ilar growth (14 percent per year) is expected through fiscal year 1990. Most of the annual increase in ag gregate Medicare expenditures for physician services over the past decade has been due to higher prices for services (48 percent) and more services per beneficiary (39 percent); only 13 percent has been due to in creases in the number of beneficiaries. Since 1978 and especially since 1982, Medicare per capita expenditures for physician services have risen more rapidly than overall U.S. per capita physician expenditures. Medicare's payment policies play an important role in rising program expenditures for medical care. Like many other payers, Medicare pays physicians and cer tain other providers a fee for each service performed. Fee-for-service payment gives these providers a finan cial incentive to perform additional services as long as the additional revenue exceeds their costs. Because medicine is not an exact science, physicians have much opportunity to exercise discretion and recommend ad ditional visits or procedures within the bounds of ac cepted medical practice. Moreover, Medicare's method of determining pay ments to physicians is inherently inflationary. Under Medicare's customary, prevailing, and reasonable (CPR) charge-determination process, payments are based on what physicians have charged in the past. Medicare approved charges to individual physicians are limited by the Medicare Economic Index, but the effect of the index varies by specialty and type of serv ice. Charges for primary care areas, such as office visits, have been more constrained than charges for radiology and general surgery. Another concern, apart from rising expenditures, is the substantial variation across the country in certain aspects of Medicare payment for physician services. Medicare payment rates for urban, specialist, and in patient services are typically higher than those for ru ral, generalist, and ambulatory services, and some ob servers consider the differentials excessive. Payment rates also tend to be higher for procedural services such as electrocardiograms and surgery, which are heavily Strategies for Medicare dependent on the use of medical devices, than for non procedural services such as historytaking and coun seling. Differentials in Medicare payment rates for cer tain services give physicians financial incentives to favor and perhaps overuse the more generously reim bursed services. Assignment rates, the rates at which providers agree to accept Medicare's approved charges as payment in full, have ranged from 17 percent of charges in South Dakota to 87 percent in Rhode Is land. These variations may indicate problems pertain ing to access to care, quality of care, or efficiency, al though there is little consensus about whether specific variations indicate problems. To help restrain increases in Medicare expenditures for physician services, the Deficit Reduction Act of 1984 froze physician charges to Medicare beneficiaries for 15 months beginning July 1, 1984. The 1984 act also mandated OT A to study alternative methods of paying for physician services under Medicare. OT A examines four alternative Medicare payment strategies for Congress to consider: 1) modify present payment arrangements, while retaining CPR as the mainstream payment method; 2) base payment on fee schedules, with a predetermined payment rate for each service; 3) explore moving to payment for packages of related services; and 4) adopt capitation payment, a fixed payment per person per month for covered medical care, for all Medicare beneficiaries. The effects of each strategy are difficult to predict because of uncertainty regarding physicians' behavior and the changing medical marketplace. Capitation payment for all beneficiaries is most likely to be able to control Medicare expenditures without increasing beneficiaries' expenditures. But since techniques for set ting capitation rates for different categories of benefi ciaries are not well developed, the rate structure could unintentionally contain incentives for capitation plans to seek some beneficiaries as enrollees and to avoid others. Payment based on fee schedules would give Medicare greater control over the prices of individual services, but might not constrain total program ex penditures. That would depend on changes in the vol ume and types of services as prices were more re stricted. Lowering Medicare's approved charges or continuing the present freeze on providers' charges under CPR might initially reduce the growth in Medi care expenditures, but this effect would be unlikely to (over) The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress whose basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OTA, U.S. Congress, Washington, DC 20510. Phone: 202/224-9241. John H. Gibbons, Director.
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be sustained because of changes in billed charges and in volume and types of services. Payment for pack ages of services could theoretically enable Medicare to limit expenditures for packaged services, but total expenditures would depend on the extent to which re lated services were used outside the packages. More over, little or no experience exists with payment for packages that include the services of different physicians. Assuring quality of care is a concern under all the payment alternatives, but the focus of concern differs for specific alternatives-from overuse of services with CPR and other fee-for-service alternatives to underuse of services with payment for packages of services and capitation payment. The effects of payment reform on quality would also depend on the levels of payment and on the extent to which services are now being used appropriately. If lower payment rates and more global payment methods lowered the use of_ services overused in the past, quality could be improved. On the other hand, quality could decline if lower payment rates led to reductions in necessary services and to delays in diagnosis and treatment. Specific problems regarding beneficiary groups' ac cess to care have not been documented to date. As signment rates have been rising since 1976 and reached 67 percent of all charges in fiscal year 1985, the first year of Medicare's participating physician program (under which a physician may agree to accept assign ment on all Medicare claims). Assignment rates and beneficiaries' access to care have increased with. higher Medicare payment rates and have decreased with lower rates. If Medicare payment rates for physician services were set too low, physicians might increas ingly refuse to accept assignment or might try to avoid certain types of cases or beneficiary groups. However, Medicare payment reform that lowers the level of payment or limits the revenue to providers would encourage the development and use of cost saving technologies and of less expensive sites of care. Regionalization of expensive technologies would also be expected, perhaps reducing beneficiaries' geographic access. Expensive new technologies, such as magnetic resonance imaging, might be adopted more slowly. Congress could consider, in addition to the four pay ment strategies, options to improve controls over the volume of services billed, to reduce differentials in Medicare payment rates for certain services, and to increase assignment rates. These options address issues that have arisen under CPR payment and that would also be of concern under payment based on fee sched ules or payment for packages of services, but these op tions would also be consistent with eventually mov ing to capitation payment. Another option is for Congress to establish a physician payment commis sion to examine and help implement alternative pay ment reforms. Copies of the OT A report, "Payment for Physician Sem ices: Strategies for Medicare," are available from the U. 5. Government Printing Office. Tfze GPO stock number is 052003-01020-8; the price is 59.00. Copies of the report for con gressional use are available by calling 4-8996. Summaries of reports are available at no charge from the Office of Technology Assessment.
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OTA REPORT BRIEF February 1986 Alternatives to Animal Use in Research, Testing, and Education For most areas of scientific experimentation, totally replacing animal use with nonanimal methods, espe cially in the short term, is not likely. More likely prospects are reducing the number of animals used and making procedures more humane. OT A reviewed alternative technologies to animal use in three areas: research in biomedicine and be havior, testing for toxicity, and education in the life sciences. Alternatives vary according to the different uses of animals in each area. Research, and to a lesser degree, testing, will con tinue to require live animals for observing complex in teractions of cells, tissues, and organs. In testing, some whole animal methods are being replaced by nonanimal methods, as the new tests are validated. Federal regulatory agencies have recently indicated a willingness to accept data from alternative test meth ods. Chick embryo membranes, for example, are a promising alternative to rabbits' eyes for determining irritancy qf chemical substances. Other test methods use cells, tissues, and organs in culture, and chemical and physical models. In education, far fewer animals are used than in research or testing, yet animal use in the classroom plays an important role in shaping posi tive attitudes about living animals. Although the Federal Government supports areas of research and testing that generate alternative tech nologies, it has not directed funding towards the de velopment of alternatives per se. Research areas most likely to contribute to alternatives include cell-, tissue-, and organ-culture technology; animal health; under standing mechanisms of pain, pain control, and pain perception; and computer simulation of living systems. For example, computer simulations of living systems can replace or complement some animal use, especially in education. However, use of animals is a prerequi site to the development of ever more sophisticated simulations. Computerized dissemination of research and testing results also could reduce some animal use. Although reduction in numbers of animals used is also a principal alternative, data currently available on animal use are very poor. Any estimate of animal use is a rough approximation. The best available data suggest a minimum of 17 to 22 million animals are used annually in the United States. Included in these figures are 12 to 15 million rats and mice. Current data per mit no statement about any trend in animal uses through recent years. Ethical considerations are affecting the search for alternatives. The principle of humane treatment pro vides common ground for all, despite disagreement on exactly how the principle should be interpreted and applied. At one end of a broad spectrum is the view that humans may use animals in any way. At the other end is the view that an animal has the right not to be used for any purpose not directly benefitting it. Most parties agree that action to conserve animals is part of humane treatment. Federal regulation of animal use in research and test ing facilities occurs chiefly under the Animal Welfare Act, the Health Research Extension Act, rules of the Environmental Protection Agency and the Food and Drug Administration on good laboratory practices, and the policies of the Public Health Service and the National Institutes of Health.* The Animal Welfare Act is applied to dogs, cats, rabbits, guinea pigs, ham sters, and nonhuman primates, but not to rats and mice, the most common laboratory animals. Most State laws focus on matters such as procurement of animals rather than the actual conduct of experiments. Institutional and self-regulation occur via local review committees that include lay members and whose pur view is expanding beyond traditional concerns of ani mal care to include aspects of animal use. The overwhelming majority of animal users are (or will soon be) subject to local committee oversight. For this study, OTA defines animals as nonhuman vertebrates: mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, and fish. Other creatures customarily included as animals-invertebrates such as insects and wormsare excluded by this definition. OTA did not examine animal use in food production; harvesting organs, anti bodies, and other biological products; and sport, en tertainment, and companionship. Copies of the OTA report, "Alternatives to Animal Use in Research, Testing, and Education," are available from the U.S. Government Printing Office. The GPO stock number is 052-003-01012-7: the price is $16. 00. Copies of the report for congressional use are available by calling 4-8996. Sum maries of reports are available at no charge from the Office of Technology Assessment. in 1985, Congress enacted three laws citing alternatives to animal use: the Health Professions Educational Assistance Amendments of 1985. the Health Research Extension Act of 1985. and the Food Security Act of 1985, which amended the Animal Welfare Act. The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress whose basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OTA, U.S. Congress, Washington, DC 20510. Phone: 202/224-9241. John H. Gibbons, Director.
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OTA REPORT BRIEF February 1986 Federal Government Information Technology: Management, Security, and Congressional Oversight The U.S. Government-the largest user of computer equipment of any single organization or government in the world-is critically dependent on information technology. Improvements in management could give the government a much higher return on its substantial investment in computers, telecommunications, and re lated personnel and services, conservatively estimated at $60 billion over fiscal years 1982 through 1986. Rapid advances in technology-such as microcom puters, computer networking and modeling, videocon ferencing, and electronic information exchange-have overtaken much of the policy previously established by Congress to control, oversee, and encourage the management and use of Federal information technology. These advances are generating many new uses, opportunities, and issues that need congressional at tention. One cause for concern is iJ.'.lattention to the security of Federal information systems. Federal agencies are not fully implementing appropriate security measures. For example, about 40 percent of agencies responding to an OT A survey have not conducted a security risk analysis for at least 5 years, 25 percent do not perform background checks on personnel with access to Fed eral computer systems containing sensitive information, and about 60 percent do not have and are not develop ing contingency plans for use if mainframe computers are disrupted. Also, 75 percent of agencies do not have an explicit policy for security of information in Federal microcomputers. In addition to technical and administrative security measures, protection against computer crime requires criminal laws to provide disincentives for potential vio lators and facilitate prosecution when crimes occur. Though 45 States have passed computer crime laws, determining appropriate State jurisdiction can be diffi cult because many computer systems are located in more than one State or use data communication networks that routinely cross State lines. Thus, extending the ex isting Federal law to cover interstate computer crime is warranted. If the Federal Government is to realize the full poten tial of information technology for increasing its effi ciency and effectiveness, other specific areas need im provement: strategic planning for Federal information tech nology; the scope and quality of information available to Congress, and to the agencies themselves, on key Federal information technology trends and appli cations; mechanisms to encourage innovation in use of in formation technology by agencies; procurement of large computer systems; evaluation and use of computer modeling to support agency dedsionmaking; and government foresight, including the monitoring and analysis of longer term trends. Although many of these needs could be met by the executive branch acting alone, Congress can facilitate, encourage, and, where necessary, require these actions. One vehicle available to Congress is the Papenvork Re duction Act of 1980, which is overdue for reauthoriza tion and could be amended to provide a more detailed congressional mandate. OT A also identified ways that information technol ogy could improve the collection, maintenance, and dissemination of government information-for exam ple, via interactive data networks, electronic bulletin boards, and electronic printing. These technologies could revolutionize the public information functions of government. Further evaluation in this area is needed, and, ultimately, Congress is likely to be called on to update existing public information laws. Finally, OT A identified significant unrealized oppor tunities for congressional use of information technol ogy in conducting oversight, including: 1) access by con gressional committees and staff to agency electronic files, where appropriate; 2) use of computer-based mod eling and decision support; 3) video-and computer conferencing; and 4) electronic tracking of agency and executive actions. Pilot tests are needed to assess the benefits, costs, and problems. This report is the second component of the OT A assessment of "Federal Government Information Tech nology: Congressional Oversight and Civil Liberties." Other components include Electronic Surveillance and Civil Liberties (published in October 1985) and Elec tronic Record Systems and Individual Privacy (forth coming 1986). Copies of the OTA report. "Government Information Tech nology: Management. Security. and Congressional Over sight," are available from the U.S. Government Printing Office. The CPO stock number is 052-003-01026-7; the price is S7.50. Copies of the report for congressional use are avail able by calling 4-8996. The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress whose basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OTA, U.S. Congress, Washington, DC 20510. Phone: 202/224-9241. John H. Gibbons, Director.
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OTA REPORT BRIEF March 1986 Potential Effects of Section 3 of the Federal Coal Leasing Amendments Act of 1976 Over 19 billion tons of Federal coal has been leased with 16.2 billion tons leased before 1976. About 500 of the more than 600 existing coal leases are over 16 years old. While the number of leases that are produc ing or being developed has increased significantly in the past decade, almost half of "old" (pre-1976) leases still remain undeveloped. With continued low growth in energy demand, excess capacity in existing mines, and the large inventory of undeveloped lease reserves, most of th-i!se old leases, 6.2 million tons of coal, will not meet their lease production obligations even as suming the most diligent efforts at developing and mar keting the coal. To encourage coal production and deter speculation in Federal resources, section 3 of the Federal Coal Leas ing Amendments Act of 1976 conditions future eligi bility for new Federal onshore mineral leases on com mercial production from any Federal coal leases held over 10 years. Section 3 was aimed at the idle holdings of major oil companies, large coal companies, and other energy conglomerates. Holders of old leases have three op tions to avoid the no-new-leasing penalty: mine the reserves, sell the lease, or return the reserves to the government. Noncomplying lessees, their parent cor porations, subsidiaries, and other related firms will be barred from further leasing of onshore oil, gas, coal, and other minerals after December 31, 1986. OT A estimates that of 489 old leases in Western coal States, 189 leases will comply with section 3, 56 leases with compliance difficulties risk short-term disqualifi cation, and 244 leases will not comply. As a result, more than half of the 220 present coal lessees could become ineligible for new onshore leases. Over 65 percent of leased Federal coal reserves are controlled through various arrangements by 20 lease holders. Fifteen of these leaseholders hold 75 percent of the potentially noncomplying pre-1976 reserves and face disqualification. Despite the potential for significant impacts on individual firms from disqualification-most of the largest noncomplying leaseholders are actively in volved in onshore oil and gas leasing-OT A expects that section 3 wiil have minimal effects on competi tion in the oil and gas industry. In particular, major oil firms would probably sell or relinquish noncom plying coal leases rather than risk any extended ineligi bility for new Federal onshore oil and gas leases. Many potential oil industry lease applicants will be unaffected by section 3, and noncomplying firms can acquire oil and gas leases by assignment. Also, most Federal oil and gas leases are not awarded by competitive bid ding, but through the noncompetitve "lottery" system. Similarly, impacts on coal leasing and production are unlikely to be large. Coal production should be essentially unaffected, as few producing mines are ex hausting their Federal reserves and many producers have ample production capacity available to meet any shortfall. The impacts on lease competition and coal leasing revenues are likely to be limited because there are normally few bidders for any given coal tract and the statutory fair market value requirement. if strongly administered, can assure that acG:eptable bids reflect a fair return. However, disqualifications could reduce the number of potential bidders creating an incentive for the remaining participants to bid less. Fewer new coal tracts may be leased if the most likely bidders are disqualified. Section 3 implementation could encounter admin istrative bottlenecks. First, the Department of the In terior delayed issuing final section 3 policy guidance leaving many lessees only about a year to complete all the administrative steps necessary to avoid disqual ification. Second, other leasing programs could be dis rupted and lease issuances contested if the Department does not prepare quickly and effectively to implement section 3 for all leasable minerals, especially for the thousands of new oil and gas leases issued annually. Legislation to repeal or modify section 3 has been introduced but could undercut a basic policy that Fed eral coal leases should be developed promptly. Because of policy changes made by Interior Secretary James Watt, section 3 remains the only penalty imposed on most nonproducing lessees before the mid-1990s. OTA examined a range of alt.ernative legislative op tions for modifying section 3 and encouraging the timely development of Federal coal leases including al lowing nonproducing lessees to keep their eligibility by paying an annual holding fee. These nonproduc tion payments could generate additional Federal rev enues and, perhaps, recapture a portion of value of old leases originally sold at very low prices. Copies of the Special Report. 'Potential EHects o_f Section 3 of tlie Federal Coal Leasi11g Amendments Act of 10:-0." are available from the U. 5. Government Printing Office. The GPO stock number is 052-003-01029-1: the price is 57.00. Copies of the Special Report for congressional use are m)ail able by calling 4-8996. The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress whose basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OT1\ U.S. Congress, Washi~gton, DC 20510. Phone: 202/224-9241. John H. Gibbons, Director.
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OTA REPORT BRIEF March 1986 Technology, Public Policy, & the Changing Structure of American Agriculture As America enters the era of biotechnology and in formation technology, agricultural productivity will increase significantly and the structure of agriculture and of rural communities will change forever. Approx imately 1 million farms will disappear between now and the year 2000, mostly moderate-size and small farms. About 50,000 large farms will then account for 75 percent of U.S. agricultural production. The main beneficiaries of the new technologies will be the operators of large farms. Operators of small and moderate-size farms, the traditional "backbone of Ameri~an agriculture," will be less competitive, partly because they will be unable to adopt many of the new technologies. Generally, 70 percent or more of the larg est farms are expected to adopt emerging biotechnol ogies and information technologies, compared to only 40 percent for moderate farms, and about 10 percent for the smallest farms. Intreased productivity from emerging technologies will be needed for American agriculture to regain its competitiveness in international trade. If the United States cannot compete with other countries, reduced exports will exaggerate the structural changes that U.S. farmers and rural communities are facing. Large farm operators naturally tend to concentrate their living and business activities in larger communi ties. The disappearance of farm operations from small towns will have repercussions on other businesses in rural communities and on the labor pool in general, which must absorb those workers whose livelihood once depended on agricultural production. Although technology was found to be an important force in changing the structure of American agricul ture, it is not the only force. Public policy, institutions, and economics have had and will continue to have important roles in shaping agricultural communities. In particular, if current farm programs of the Federal Government remain in force, they will accelerate these changes in the structure of agriculture ~nd rural com munities that support farming. Farm programs, which include the Commodity Credit Corporation purchases and price and income supports, have major effects on farm size, wealth, and incomes of commercial farmers. The net worth of large farms is increasing significantly more than that of moderate-size farms under current farm programs. Large f~rms receive a very large proportion of the pro gram paymen_ts, although most of these farms would survive and prosper without farm programs. To assure a diverse, decentralized farm structure, where all sizes of farms have an opportunity to com pete and survive, different policies and programs would have to be developed for each of the three farm segments-large, moderate-size, and small farms. Large-scale farms (above $250,000 in sales) do not need direct Government payments and/ or subsi dies to compete and survive. Rather, they need a relatively stable economic environment so they can sell what they produce, and they need a base of public and private research whereby they can maintain their competitiveness. Moderate-size farms (having $100,000 to $250,000 in sales) require farm programs to survive and be successful. In particular, income supports provide significant benefits to moderate farms. Targeting income supports to moderate farms could prolong their survival. To aid this group, the risk of oper ating in an open market environment could be reduced, new technologies that have the poten tial for adoption could be made more available to them, and opportunities for employment out side agriculture could be created for those who are unable to compete. The Extension Service could play a significant role in providing this aid. With few exceptions, small/part-time farms (hav ing less than $100,000 in sales) are not viable eco nomic entities in the mainstream of commercial agriculture-nor can they be. However, a small increase in the income of each farm in this group could have a significant multiplier effect on the local economy because of the large number of small farms. For the small/part-time farmers who either have a substantial outside income or who have found a niche in the market, the Government's role would be severe _ly restricted. However, small subsistence farmers, w.ho have limited resources and often limited abilities, represent a genuine problem for which public concern is warranted. These indeed are the rural people left behind. Price and income support programs can do little to solve their problems. U.S. Department of Agri culture and land-grant universities have a special responsibility to serve their needs. Copies of the OTA report, "Technology, Public Policy, & the Changing Structure of American Agriculture," are available from the U.S. Government Printing Office. The CPO stock number is 052-003-01019-6: the price is 513.00. Copies of the report for congressional use are available by calling 4-8996. Summaries of reports are available at no charge from the Office of Technology Assessment. The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress whose basic function is to he!~ legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OTA, U.S. Congress, Washington, DC 20510. Phone: 202/224-9241. John H. Gibbons, Director.
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OTA REPORT BRIEF March 1986 Transportation of Hazardous Materials: Accidents involving hazardous materials occur at least weekly in major metropolitan areas. Although a large urban jurisdiction that has had many such ac cidents may have a trained hazardous materials re sponse team, about three-quarters of the Nation's first responders are not adequately trained to deal with hazardous materials. The most pressing national need in emergency response is finding an effective way to train first re sponders to handle different types of hazardous ma terials. Despite the existence of many training pro grams, no national guidelines for them are currently in place, and some of the programs are inadequate. National emergency response guidelines or standards are needed to ensure adequate training. Furthermore, financial assistance for training and for .maintaining emergency response capabilities is needed by many lo calities. More than 180 million shipments of hazardous ma terials are made in the United States each year, about 500,000 each day, according to Department of Trans portation figures. These shipments contain a wide va riety of dangerous and unfamiliar substances: more than 2,400 chemicals, explosives, wastes, and radio active materials are listed as hazardous materials in the Code of Federal Regulations-and the list is growing. Gasoline and petroleum products account for more hazardous materials transportation accidents, injuries and damages than other classified commodities, be cause they are the most frequently transported hazardous cargo. Additional safety measures and train ing programs for drivers and handlers could reduce the incidence of such accidents. Although most hazardous materials accidents do not cause deaths, they often cause serious injury and sub stantial damage in addition .to being frightening and spectacular. Concern about the risks involved has motivated public demand for improved emergency re sponse capabilities and strong enforcement of safety rules. To help prevent accidents and protect public safety, State and local governments have restricted the routes that hazardous materials shippers use or the hours that shipments are permitted. They may also require licens ing, registration, or permits; advance notification of shipment or other special procedures; and escorts for State and Local Activities hazardous materials movements. These requirements and restrictions vary from State to State, leaving trans porters unsure whether they are complying with local regulations. Many industry representatives as well as State and local governments strongly support establishment of a national truck driver's license and uniform guidelines for registration, permit, and shipment notification re quirements. They also feel that penalties for violating regulations should be consistent across governmental and jurisdictional levels and substantial enough to dis courage future infractions. Continued Federal support for States' hazardous materials enforcement activities is important, since Federal inspection forces have been reduced annually for several years. To plan for accident prevention and to improve their emergency response, States and localities need to know what types of hazardous materials accidents might oc cur in their areas, which locations have the highest risk, and what types of materials are most likely to be involved. Because of the lack of a reliable national hazardous materials transportation database, State and local governments are performing their own studies to determine what is transported near, within, and through their communities. These data collection and planning activities serve to coordinate and improve communication between the numerous separate groups that are concerned with hazardous materials transpor tation and emergency response. Information accompanying hazardous materials is often faulty or insufficient, posing additional problems for public safety personnel. State enforcement officials have found that 25 to 50 percent of placards on haz ardous materials shipments are incorrect. Shipping papers are sometimes incomplete or inaccessible. Emer gency crews must assess the risks of the hazardous ma terial and make decisions on how to respond based on information that may or may not be accurate. The wrong response to a hazardous materials accident en dangers both emergency personnel and the neighbor ing communities. Copies of the OT A report. "Transportation of Hazardous Materials: State and Local Activities." are avaihible from the U.S. Government Printing Office. Tlze GPO stock m11n ber is 052-003-01016-0: tlze price is 53. i'5. Copies of tlze report for congressional use are available by calling -1-SCl96. Swrzmaries of reports are m.,ailable at 110 clzarge from the Office of Technology Assessment. The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress whose basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OT A, U.S. Congress, Washington, DC 20510. Phone: 202/224-9241. John H. Gibbons, Director.
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elected. News Clips '" 'rt OTA Publications 'ifJ; .. ,,j'i,1l1 and Activities ,;{f' :,::,j:!t:: :.. . . '"' 1,,-' + ,,. 1. '~ i~,f ': ~i.;r;r-l,}i;f f;'.j~t!,, ; . .. folio ........ $,11irepresentath/EfSample (e,bout 4%) of the eUppings received .... {t,e 1ast q1,.ta:rtlt. These clippings refer to 25 different OTA publications. Mem~ :$1Qf ~ongre$,g 'ip~fticlpated in the public .rel~ase ofJtof the 12 studies Issued S'"qil~~er; > .:.l:~;t!.::ci:it ... ... hiert(R b,vered .. ... ~~logyrrf'ubJici'QJk:y; and.the Changing Structure of American Agrkufture r~I:qovernment lnfbrmatlon Technology: Management, Security, and Congressional ves,~ht .. :;(bt+, < .. c, efitfor Pnysiciarf'.S~rvice:s:.Strategies for Medicare > .. .. htiO'logy and Sth,idtura.1 Unemployment: Retraining Adult'Oisplaced Workers f'mitlyes ,tp:Anima~ '.Use in J"estjligf R~search, ancl Edqcation .. urof 'Biomedical ~esearch ahd Related Technqlogy for Tropical Diseases . .. k~rfts Prqs'pect;jve: Payment System~. Strategies for Evaluating Cost, Quality,. and Medical ecfi:hology J:~,.,Jr)ti:: <. ,:: "r~1.covemmenf'1Jnfo'rmatkm Technology:. Electronic Surveillarrce and ,Civil Liberties rnlttitin:.ot An,efie.1' i?Offices .. ''erttji,~(1life,{a~4 tr1}Ury in the Workplace uctive'.Hazardfin1the Workplace . 'efHt~!WEi!pon\;Couhtermeasures, and Arms Control .\.\~is'.sile C>efery~e:Jre~hnologies ff thfe'Natronrs Groundwater :from Contamination :jrial '6iotehriol~gy; An lnteroational Analysis .. i .. ,... '<,+ ., .. < p'orfati()flof H.atardou i\1.iterials: Stateand Local Activities (Sped al "Repbrt) .. .. 'nJ~iifMemi,a~ti~~ ilatkground Papers, an4 Other l}()tunients Referenced T pplicatiqnsf:9r Fue1 C~ll l'echnologies {Technical Memorandum) hi,'trendS''IJft1J,hlie Scientific and Engineering Work Force {Technical Memorandum) ttology Ttan~'fertb China (Technical Memorandum) .. < .. .... '. .. C~nserv~if:on\of ~rologicalDiversity in the United States '(Backgroond Paper) ~i:fj(fl~hro:lji~~ Resare;h and Oeyelopment (~ackground Pap~r) : .~ diflys1s Eqttip'meqt and Disposable Industry (Case Stgdy) :.. .. ;' :J .. gt'.'timeF~rtnfandfahd:Other High-Qualiv/Cropland~'afterSurface Coal Mining (Staff ~')!'tt,,;> ;i~~::::t!~~f;,:>.;:~J.\,~-)i;,, ~_>{:-.::__ ; ., ,' _. '..: .. ,' ':Ref~t~ tJeitfif~~flfFinancial Costs (Staff Paper) :: : . etf@rat lnttrest .. .' ... . tCoi>pelEvans '<~eRart9re from the House of Re:presentatives) f mbrqce Technology Assessment : ,,-./ Ji:f/.
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---~-~V _____ -----------------THH_NEW YORK TIMES, TUESDAY, MARCH !.12_1966 __ .:: Technology Advances Could Hurt Small .Farms, Report Says culture has moved through this cen-more than twice as many as todai. "If efficiency is the criteria that we tury. Each produced vast productivity Every American has a stake in the judge agriculture by," said Mr. Philo! the century, thanks to a genetically gains and caused fundamental strucoutcome of the biotechnqlogy era, the lips, "then we should-leave the policy engineered growth hormone. tural changes In agriculture. report said. For exan:iple, the authors alone and Jet things continue as they Continued From Page.Al -11 1 1 j In the mechanization_ era, from 1920 worried that the technology would hasare. Our policies now are driving sma 11 I :=.'. c~~~l=~J':.snsg:n': s~r;::;= :n':;::~\':, to !950, farmers made the transition ten the trend toward increasing con-farmers out of business. from mule power to gasoline and diesel solidation of food production by levier "But if we want to save the small ,, reditary material from different speand fewer farms Today accord1'ng to engines. When It began, America had farm, then we must help them gain ac-I cies into corn, wheat, soybeans, cotton well over six million farms. When it Department of Agriculture figures, cess to this technology. The large and fruit crops. ended, there were a million fewer. roughly 700,000 farms produce about 80 1 d 't eed G But such benefits could also exact a percentofthenation'ssupplyoffood. armer oesn n overnment help. fearsome price on small and medium11te second, the chemical era, began The small farmer does, and right now size farms, which will not be able to lnl950andcontlnuestoday. Farm proLawmakers on theSpot he Isn't getting any." pay for the equipment or finance the ductivlty was Increased by the ability Maintaining corppetition in the food. Many ~cientlsts at the Department of __ changes In farm practices Deeded to to control pests, Improve nutrition and production sector, according to the Agriculture said they had not seen the make the technologies work effectivefight diseases with a number of petrostudy, depends largely upon the will-report, and would prefer not to make a ly. The report predicted that more than chemical products. When the chemical ingness of lawmakers to change farm comment until they had thoroughly ~-, a million small and medium-size era began there were 5.4 million farms, policies as biotechnology takes hold. studied it. farms, of the nation's total of 2.2 mil I============================================== lion, would disappear by the year 2000. I And 75 percent of the food supply will .' come from Just 50,000 farms, it said. The authors argued that unless the Government fundamentally restruc tures the nation's farm policy to specif. ically aid small and medium size farms, while leaving large farms to compete withoui Government assistance, the agriculture depression wUJ 1 grow even worse, and produce a rural landscape dominated by immense farms and ghost towns. "It's a good news, bad news report," said Michael J. Phillips, the 41-year-old agricultural economist who directed the study. "Biotechnology and information technologies will help make our -agriculture competitive again. Technology is our strong suit and we should use it. "But many farmers will not benefit. Biotechnology will quicken the rate of fam, failures unless we restructure the policy to help the medium and small farmers. This study says we can have a lean, efficient agriculture, and we can also maintain moderate ancj small farmers if we have programs 'to help them." Prediction Is Questioned ., Other authorities today disagreed with some of the study's findings, Dr. 1 William L. Bro_wn, the chairman of the Board on Agriculture, a unit of the Na tional Academy of Sciences; said the rate of farm failures the researchers predicted was much too high, though he did say that current trends Indicate far fewer farms in the 21st century than I there are today. "If we do reach a situation where we have just one mil-, ,I lion farms and 50,000 produce all the food, it will be much longer than 14 years, Dr. Brown said. He also said a ram, policy that would help small farmers, while ignoring large ones, was probably not practical. "I don't know if Congress will go for that kind of idea because It's unfair," he said. Wayne Rasmussen, a historian at the Department of Agriculture, said he did not believe the United States could ever pmduce 7.5 percent of its food on just 50,000 farms. "We'll sUII have problt>tnS that we cannot control with tech-1 noloRYlike the weather," he said. I Hiotechnology is the third major lichrwlogicul era !hat Ameri,c8n agrt~ --------. ____________ .,._.,._ ____ ,~ ~-----------------,..., !TECHNOLOGY GAINS! { MAY HALVE FARMS Report Sees Mixed Blessing in Expensive New Methods By KEITH SCHNEIDER Special to The New York Times WASHINGTON, March 17-Genetic engineering and other emerging tech nologies, often cited as cost-cutting tools that will help save small and mediupl-size farms, could instead raise costs and cut the number of farms in half, a Congressional report pre dicted today. The two-year study, "Technology, Public Policy and the Changing Structure of American Agriculture," was conducted by the Congressional Office of Technoiogy Assessment. It is the first thorough analysis of the conse quences of an array of new biological, mechanical and management tech nologies for agriculture, research insti tutions and the rural economy. The report's authors predicted that these technologies will help the largest and wealthiest farms realize significant gains in productivity and efficien cy, enabling them to regain price and quality advantages American farmers used to enjoy in the world market. The avera,ge cow, for instance, will bear more calves because dairy farmers are using advanced hereditary techniques to produce superior em bryos and then artificially implanting them in the womb. The same cow will produce twice as much milk by the end Continued on Page AH, Column 1
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24 PAGES' . : .. : _: -:;~ ;:,:i ster to allow him to land ,be the first person ever to ,side down. cri 19a.e JOURNAL-STAR PTG. co. 1 million farms seen as vanishing by 2000 WASHINGTON (AP) -A congres sional office said Monday that about 1 million farms now in prodUction will dis appear by the turn of the century, an attrition rate that was disputed by an Agric~ Department economist. The Office of Technology ~ent said that U.S. agriculture "is entering a new technological era at a time when the character of agriculture is c~ rapidly." If the present trend continues, it is likely that the number of fanns will shrink to. about 1.25 million in the year 2000 from 2.24 million counted in the gov ernment's 1982 agricultural census. "The number of small and part-time farms will continue to /ieClllle, but will still make up about 80 percent of total farms," the report said. "The large and VerJ large farms will increase substanr tially in number. Approximately 50,000 of these largest farms will account for 75 percent of the agricultural production by year2000." THE REPOR'l' ,SAJB moderate-si7.ed farms will decline in number and In proportion of total farms, and will have a small share of the market and a dectin ing share of net farm income. "These farms comprise most of the fanns that depend on agriculture for the majority of their income," the report said "Traditionally, the moderate-sized farm has been viewed as the backbone of American agriculture. These farms are failing in their efforts to compete for their historical share of farm income." Alden C. Manchester, senior econo mist in the national economics division of usoA's Economic Research service, said he does not think total farm numbers will decline as rapidly between 1982 and 2000 as the congressional report indicates. "Somewhere in the 1990s, I figure it's going to kind of bottom _out," Manches-ter said in an interview. FARM SliMBERS peaked during the Depresson of the 1930s and have been declining filllce then in general al though there are occasional blips in the trend, sometimes due to changes in the government's counting meUm. "Hut it hasn't been going down nearly as fiSt in the '70s and the '805 as it had beet doing back when people were sort" of lushing to leave the rann in the '50s and the '60s," Manchester said. If the slowdown continues_ and "a bunch of ifs" are involved the number o[ farms will flatten out completely be fore the turn of the century, he said. One reason, Manchester said. is the apparent popularity of part-time farming by people \ho have outside income. The number.. of small, part-time farms could decline for the next 5 to 10 years and than level off. he said. Manchester said there also has been a slowdown in the decline of full-time commercial farms and that those could become stabilized "somewhere in the Turn to: Farms, Page 11
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\ ~ : .., > '90i('~a~~lnoUnudi~r than now: ~Otdce of Teehnology Assessment repof\ 'tffl!a} was released by Rep. Cooper Evans, R-Iowa, defined small ra.rm.u.s those having sales of $20,000 or 1~~.J~--~ 1982, those farms ac counted Jor l!0.6'percent or the nation's 2.2.t,pilliQn fanns. Part-time farms were in the $20,000 to $99,000 category, accounting for 25.9 percent; moderate-sized farms sold $100,000 to $1t9,000 a year, accounting for 8.1 per Ct?nt .' large fanns sold $200,000 to $499:&M> a year, representing 4.2 percent; and.very large fams, $500,000 and over, 1.2 perc:enl BY THE YEAR 2000, the report said the most likely projection shows that, of the 1.25 million total fanns, small and part-time farms will account for about 1 million units or about 80 percent of the totaL compared with about 1.94 million or 86.5 percent for the combined categoFrom Page 1 ries in 1982. Moderate-sized farms in 2000 were projected 75,000 units or 6 percent of the total. compared with 180,700 units and 8.1 percent of the 1982 total Large.and very large farms together were projeeted at 175,000 units, representing,14 percent of the turn-of-the-century total, compared with 121,700 farms in 1982. wh.ich were 5.4 percent of the total. The largest farms are expected to adopt the greatest amount of new technologies. the report said. And "the farm of the future will be treated financially like any other business -it will have to demo1tStrate profitability before a bank will finance its operation." Federal policy should be concentrated on creating a stable economic environment for agriculture and on helping the moderate-sized farms, the report said. With few exceptions, small farms "are not viable economic entities in the main stream of commercial agriculture, nor-, can they be made so." The report concluded that large-scale farmers do not need government subsi dies to compete and survive.
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f7 ? /q THI:: S!Jli TUESDAY, MARCH 18, 1986:-' About half of U.S. farms expected to vanish by 2009 Knl!lhl -Hler of farms ha!! been under WilY almost i.lncc the nation uegan -but the rnngrcsslonal sllllly said lhe new flvc-ycar farm law, passed last Decc111bcr, accelt:rnted the demise of 111;111y family farms. we spent a year trying to dcclllc ,, We spent a year tryfng to decide on the course for agriculture .... The decision has gone against the smpll and medlumjarms. And I doubt the decision ls going to change.,, REPRESENTATIVE COOPER EVANS on the course for agr1culture," said Representative Cooper Evans. R-lo wa. at a news conference held to announce the t1ludy. "The decision .has gone ogalrn1l the small and medium farms. And I doubt the deci sion Is going lo change." The new farm law helps larger farms because It generally lowers farm prices. Large producers can survive declining p1ices heller than smaller and medium-sized fanners, the study said. Ml'. Evans recommended lhal lhe owners of small and mid-size fanns consider an off-farm Job lo provide !hem with extra Income, "or they best seek retraining and get Into another line of work." Alden C. Manchester. senior economist In ll\e national economics division of the lJSOA's Economic Research Service, said he did not think total lann monbers would decline as rapidly between 19B2 and 2000 as the congressional report Indicated. "S!>mewhere In the 1990s, I ngure It's going to kind of bottom out," Mr. Manchester said In an Interview. u hasn't been going down nearly as fast tn the '70s and the sos as It had been doing back when people were sort of mshlng lo leave the r~m1 In the '50s and the '60s; Mr. Manchester said. The rapid decline In farm num bers will cause an economic crisis for many rural communllles. Hardhit towns may need government help lo attract new businesses nod __,., to develop labor retraining P,ro-grams. lhe study lndlcakd. The farm law also wastes govern mcnl payments on large farms lhat do nol need the money to survlvu. said Mike Ph"llllps. research director for the study. 'These 50.000 !largest fannsl will be around no matter what." he said. -rhcy will be able to do II on lhdr own. They won't need government. You can pretty much turn them loose." Large farms currently receive 21 significant proportion of govern ment payments, the study lndlcukd. The cost of farm subshlles Is estimated to total $24 billion In I 086 and more than $70 billion over 1hr nexl four years. Mr. Phllllps said that by treating all farms the same. goven11nc11I fann progrnms overlooked the dllkrencc between lhe needs of small and mid-size farms and those of brt;C producers. Programs designed to eual.JII' small farmers to lake full adva11lc.1~t of advances In farm technology. 111-cludlng greater use of cornpull'rs. could help them survive. he said .. 7 ~----,-------------~-" '-~-,;;;.;;;=;:=;:;:
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ASAT'S and Countenneasures c1 By Edgar Ulsamer, SENIOR EDITOR (POLICY & TECHNOLOGY} OTA says that the range of Soviet space weapons is greater than previously esti mated and that both the US and the USSR are capable of fielding a new generation of antisatellite systems. Washington, 0. C., Nov. 4 Soviet antisatellite weapons (ASATs) appear to be capa ble of attacking US satellites and other space assets at al tituQes as high as 5,000 kilometers (or some 3,000 statute miles), according to a recently re leased report by Congress's Qttlce of TtchrtQI09X...~$.$.Ssment (OTA). Pre vious testimony before congressional panels had pegged the altitude reach of this coorbital Soviet space weapon at around 600 miles. The OTA study, carried out with the assistance of an advisory panel consisting of ranking military and scientific experts, pointed out that Soviet ASATs, at present, are confined to two launchpads at the Tyuratam spaceport and are only effectiw against low altitude US military satellites. If existing Soviet space weapons (kept grounded since August 1983 under a. self-imposed Soviet test moratorium) were mated with larger boosters, they might be able to reach vital US early warning and communications satel lites at geosynchronous altitudes. While the OTA study found no evi dence suggesting that the Soviets might soon be able to deploy directed-energy weapons with an "aU altitude, instantaneous-kill" capabili ty against US spacecraft, the report asserted that the USSR could "attack low-altitude satellites with its nuclear ABMs, ICBMs, and SLBMs." The OTA study warned that, with some modifications, "these nuclear assets might also be used to attack satellites in 24 higher orbits." The study found fur thermore that the Soviets have "the technological capabilities to conduct electronic warfare against space sys tems." Both the US and the Soviet Union appear capable of dewloping and de ploying a "new generation of highly capable ASATs," including space mines, high-power radio-frequency weapons. high-energy laser weap ons, neutrat particle beam weapons, and kinetic energy weapons. Space mines, or "fellow-travelers," the OTA assessment suggested, could be de ployed within lethal range to trail their targets continuously. Using a conwn tional or nuclear exploshie charge, a space mine could destroy its quarry almost instantly on command or, when "salvage-fuzed," if approached by a threatening space object. :' OTA's catalog of future ASATs-and of technologies that can disable hostile spacecraft by other means-in cludes the closely held field of highfrequency weapons. According to OTA's analysis, these devices produce intense. damaging beams of electromagnetic radiation that could be used at fow. power lewis to jam com munications and radar systems or to owrload and bum out satellite electronics at higher power levels. Dividing the high-energy laser field into space-and grouno-based designs, OTA suggested that the latter category "weuld have infrequent opportunities to attack satellites but, unless at tacked themselves, could shoot inex~ pensively and repeatedly," especially if space-based reflectors were used ~o direct laser beams from the ground to individual targets. The advantage of space-based ti rected-energy weapons, on the other hand, could be the ability to attack several satellites in quick succession. Space-based X-ray and gamma-ray lasers could do even better, since th,v are deemed capable of attacking sev eral satellites instantly and simulta neously. Senior Administration officials believe that "bomb-pumped X ray lasers" will potentially have pervasive military importance in the de cades to come. The OTA report pointed out that the Department of Energy has succeeded in demonstrating "lasing," the emis sion of coherent light, by a nuclear explosion-powered X-ray laser in an underground nuclear test site near its facility at Jackass Flats, Nev .. Nuclear explosive pumping holds great promise for future space weapons, accord-ing to OTA, because "even if only a small fraction of the energy of a nu clear explosion could be comierted, 1 into X-ray laser beams, they would bet lethat at great distances." X-ray.laser weapons could be of relatively simple design, using thin fibers of lasingmateriaJ powered by intense, putaecf ra,. diation from a nuclear burst. Otbet- nuclear-explosive-powered directed energy weapons (NDEWs) under In-, wstigation in the Department of Ener gy's weapons program include kinetic energy weapons, visible-light weap ons, microwave weapons, and neutral charged particle beam weapons. While the OTA report suggested that future space-based, nucleap powered, directed-energy weapons might be effective over ranges of up to 40,000 kilometers, it also pointed out that each type of ASAT weaport ap pears to be vulnerable to counter measures that reduce or negate its effectiveness. Included here are vari ous forms of protection against gam ma and other radiation, magnetic shielding, and the use of faulHoler ant electronics to reduce vulnerabill ty to system-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP). Also, sophisticated space warfare capabilities on one side would almost certainly be met by "shoot-back" measures by the other power, the OTA study suggested. As in the terrestrial environment, however, many weapons capable of shooting back would themselves be subject to such at tacks, "making the effectiveness of shoot-back highly dependent on the types and numbers of ASAT and other weapons deployed and on the incentives for preemptive attack that AIR FORCE Magazine / December 1985 L1-I\ -
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f)r [ASATs vulnerable to preemptive at tack] could create." Such NOEWs as X-ray laser weap ons. which can only fire simultaneous, multiple bursts before they themselves are consumed by the nu clear detonation that powers them, obviously cannot be deterred by the other side's shoot-back capability in space. OTA. therefore, classifies these weapons as playing the role of a hair trigger; either they shoot first, or they are vulnerable to preemptive attack, first and foremost by hostile weapons of their own kind. The risk of preemptive attack on one side's ASATs by those of the other creates, in and of itself, a degree of instability. This instability would be intensified if these weapons were "salvage-fuzed," the OTA analysis suggests. Whilesalvage-fuzing would reduce the risk of preemptive attack. it creates "the risk of space war break ing out by accident. For example, if a meteoroid destroyed a satellite, it might set off a chain reaction of sal vage-fuzing that would destroy all sat ellites." Passive countermeasures appear to provide the most effective protection against current and perhaps future Soviet ASAT weapons. Key players in the passive arena are decoys and "stealthy, dark" spare satellites, or even decoys of such "spares," according to the OTA analysis. Spare satellites could be predeployed in or bit. where they could remain dormant except for occasionally reporting their status. In general, they would require little power generation, cooling, attitude control, or exposure of anten nas and could be made harder than operational satellites. Their armor, the OTA study suggested, could have a simple shape, "easily mimicked by inexpensive decoys." As a result, "proliferation of on-orbit spares would work more efficiently in con junction with hiding, deception, and hardening measures." Because nuclear-armed ballistic missiles and ballistic missile defense weapons have an intrinsic ASAT capa bility, OTA suggests that across-the~ board ASAT bans appear neither en forceable nor verifiable. In addition, modern technology offers a range of nondestructive ASAT capabilities, such as electronic countermeasures (ECM), electro-optical countermeasures (E-OCM), and spoofing. The OTA analysis found merit in ne gotiating a set of "rules of the road" for space operations, including "keep-out zones." Specific rules con cerning space defense might include defended keep-out zones, provisions governing the rights of inspection, IN FOCUS and limitations on high-velocity flybys or the trailing of foreign satel lites.
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Congressman LEE HAMILTON REPORTS FROM WASHINGTON l r -The,, ruU:ie of/ the unratified SALT II Treaty, which has limited U.S. and Soviet nuclear forces since 1979, is unclear. The Reagan Administration is divided. Some officials want to scrap SALT II, but the President announced last June that the U.S. would follow a "no undercut" policy of adhering to treaty limits so long as tl).e Soviet Union "exercises comparable res traint." This is still official pol icy. The President also said that the U.S. would study "propor tionate responses" to what it views as the military consequen ces of Soviet violations of arms agreements. After the expiration of SALT II on December 31, 1985, the U.S. may decide to pursue arms programs that breach treaty limits. Such a decision could end all restraints on U.S. and Soviet nuclear forces. There are several reasons why the U.S. should continue to adhere to the terms of SALT II. This conclusion is shared by a recent study by the Arms Control Association, "Countdown on SALT II." First, SALT II establishes equal limits on bombers and mis siles and freezes the number of alowed warheads per missile. It established restrictive sublimits on Soviet land-based missiles, those which concern the U.S. the most. Every time the Soviets intr_oduce a new missile, they are i obligated under SALT II to retire one as well. According to the Arms Control Association, the Soviet Union removed 1007 land-based missiles and 233 sea based missiles from its active force and dismantled l 3 sub marines during the period 197285 in order to comply with SALT II limits. Past Soviet practice suggest that without SALT II, much of this hardware would still be in operation. Second, SALT II, is in the U.S. interest because Soviet mis sile production lines remain open. According to open testimony by the CIA, the Soviets could add 12,000 new warheads by the mid-I 990's-more than doub ling the size of their present force-if they break out of SALT U. The Soviets could also put up to 20 or 30 warheads on each of their "heavy" missiles, giving them a much greater capacity to attack U.S. targets. It is unlikely that the U.S. should keep pace w\th such a Soviet build-up without enormous, further in creases in defense spending. Third, the end of SALT II and a renewed missile race will likely eliminate the chance for the U.S. successfully to develop a space-based missile defense, regardless of present assess ments ofits feasibility. This is the judgment of the C9neressiooal Office of _Ie~ A.ss.ess.-. J:rut!J!.. The Reagan Administra tion implicity acknowledges this conclusion when it proposes deep missile cuts at the Geneva anns talks as part of its proposal for an unrestricted Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI). With out missile limits, SDI cannot work; without SALT II there would be no limits. Fourth, the end of SALT II would free the Soviets from the obligation to permit the unimpeded operation of U.S ... national technical means,., which monitor Soviet military activities. The Soviets could adopt camouflage and deception techniques now prohibited by the treaty. Finally, there are likely to be serious political consequences if NORTH VER NON, IN SUN w. 5,258 FEB 2 5 1::.i:;5 Bug_l?EL.L.;;v SALT II is abandoned. The Geneva talks would suffer a big setback. So would the broader U.S.-Soviet relationship, which the Administration has spent the past two years trying to improve. The end of SALT II would be deeply divisive in Congress, and would lead to serious differences within NATO. Playing into the hands of Soviet efforts to split the Alliance. The crux of the argument against SALT II focuses on alleged Soviet violations of the treaty. First, the U.S. contends that the Soviets have introduced two new types ofland-based mis siles, the SS-24 and SS-25, whereas SALT II permits only one. The Soviets declare that the SS-25 is a permitted moderniza tion of the SS-13. The U.S. dis putes this, and claims further that the Soviets have violated SALT II by concealing SS-25 tests. This question is unresolved. Second, the U.S. accuses the S?viets of encoding missile test flight data necessary for verifica tion purposes. This charge is certainly true, but the U.S. has refused to specify the missile test data it needs for verification fearing possible compromise of intelligence sources and meth ods. This violation is, therefore. less than clear-cut. Third, a new U.S. charge is that the Soviets have deployed launchers in excess of SALT II limits. Others question this, since the U.S. has delayed working out agreed procedures under SALT II for dismantling Soviet bom bers: A further U.S. charge,concernmg the banned SS-16 mis sile, has been downgraded in view of Soviet steps which seem to have resolved the issue. It is my belief that the Soviets have pu~h~d the SALT II treaty to the limit. Charges of Soviet non-compliance are serious mat ters concerning gray areas of treaty interpretation, but they do not constitute massive violations which suggest a Soviet effort to break out of the treaty. Our res ponse should not be to renounce SALT II but to draft more careful treaty language in the future and to press our present concerns through the private diplomatic channels of the Standing Con sultative Commission specifi cally created for this purpose. We should pursue our complaints_ in a manner that keeps the treaty mtact. Compliance issues must be handled with accuracy and care because, if exaggerated they will destroy any prospecti for a new agreement and under mine all existing agreements. Sticking with SALT II serves U.S. interests, as the curent debate demonstrates. Without SA~T II, we are likely to ex perience an accelerated arms race, greater uncertainty about Soviet intentions. and an escala tion of tension between the super po~ers. We will be less secure. With SALT II, we will be able to preserve important constraints on_Soviet weapons, improve our abil(tY to reso_lve questions about Soviet comphance. and increase prospects for future arms agree ments at Geneva. Few choices are so clear cut.
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DEFENSE/DAILY WASHINGTON, DC DAILY MAR,/l2/l986 6LHffULt'$ OTA SAYS BREAKOUT ONE SOVIET OPTION TO SDI One option that the Soviets have to U.S. Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) R&:D under the Strategic Defense Initiative-and one for which contingency plans should be made by the U.S.-is breakout from the ABM Treaty with deployment of a BMD system of their own, Dr. Thomas Karas, project director for the Congressional Office of Techn._~-~~.filrl~.nt~ said yesterday. Karas -noted that while the Pentagon states that the Soviets "may be preparing an ABM defense of its national territory," the "intelligence community ... has not predicted that the Soviets will do so." Nonetheless, "at least in the near term, the Soviet Union is better prepared than the U.S. to deploy a nationwide, if only modestly effective, BMD system," he told the R&:D Subcommittee of the House Armed Services Committee. "If and as we move toward our own deployments, we need to consider the implications of this asymmetry-in particular, the potential strategic disadvantages it could pose for the U.S." I Other threatening Soviet options to SDI, he said, include: 1) increases in the number of ballistic missiles or reentry vehicles; 2) deployment of new or additional strategic delivery vehicles-such as low-flying cruise missiles-that are "not vulnerable to attack by BMD systems;" and, 3) deployment of weapons designed to attack components of the U.S. BMD system, particularly those based in space. ...._!,. --
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----22 'This series is keyed to 1.he New YOased Foreign Poliey Associat,on's ~erut ~ program, which 1s designed to help Americans become be"8r informed about cntical IQfe1gn Policy issues. The anicles will appear on Thursdays trom Jan 30 thr<>ugh March 20 The sub1ects are How for-ecn polcy lo madr. The case of Central Amenca it-2-,' usta, w ..... and the Geneva T.al<.o: wnat tu1ure lo, arms control? .3-Democncy in Latin Amen:.a: Focus on Argentina and Brazil .4-lntemational tvroriMn: In search of a respense -S, Eur-, Community and lheUS: Friction among friends ,6-Thlnl-worid devoiopment Old problems, new stral~ies' .7 .,.,... and the US: Fnendship and discord ... lleldon ln lnbemltional poltics: Why the resurgence? --~~---------~-~--THE CHRIS. 'Star wars' and arms control The US faces several policy choices over how to proceed with President Reagan's Stategic Defense Initiative, a defen sive system against incoming missile attacks. These options give various degrees of impor tance to arms control. But will the final decision, whatever it is, promote stability or increase the risk of nuclear destruction? By Elizabeth Pond Statt 'Writef" of Ttte Christian Science Mon110t STAR wars could be the greatest impetus to arms cont.rol in a dozen years. Or it could be the greatest barrier. It all depends on what happens next. So far, President Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative ISDI. or "star wars"I has been a con spicuous incentive to arms control. Judging from the vehemence of Soviet attacks on it. it seems to be the major prod that got the Soviets back to the negotiating table after they stalked out in 1983. At the same time, though, the Soviets are insisting that no agreement on deep cuts in nu clear offensive weapons is possible unless the United States gives up any notion of a spaceand land-based defense against Soviet intercon tinental missiles. And what is the lesson of this? To hard-liners in the Reagan administration primarily Pentagon civilians and Air Force officers directing the SDI program the Soviet opposition proves that SDI is a good thing and should at all costs be preserved intact. To moderates in the administration. it shows that SDI could be a valuable lever to extract for the first time in the nuclear age major reduc tions in nuclear weapons rather than just ceil ings on huge existing arsenals. To sort out the conflicting points of view, sev era! issues must be addressed: What SDI options are technically feasible? What would be the effect of each of these on nuclear stockpiles and the threat of nuclear holocaust? What policy alternatives or what com binations of SDI and anns control are there? Fuslbi',ty In the four decades of the nuclear era. no physical "defense" against an enemy's attack has thus far been possible, simply because of the scale of nuclear blast. The 10 or 30 or even 50 percent attrition of enemy planes that was ef fective in halting air raids in World War 11 has no meaning, when a leakage of even 1 percent of l 0, 000 strategic nuclear warheads through today's defense lines would bring the devastation of 1,000 Hiroshimas, Thus, in the past four decades. prevention of nuclear war "deterrence" has replaced physical "defense" as the central military mis sion. And both sides' inhibitions against attack ing the enemy have rested precisely on the knowledge that. since no defense is possible, any attack would call forth an intolerabk reprisal. Will technological advances change this and once again make physical defense conceivable? Last fall's report on "Ballistic Missile De fense Technologies" by the Congressional Of. fice of Technology Assessment (available for $12 from the Superintendent of Documents. US Government Printing Office. Washington. D.C. 20402) tries to answer this question by assess ing four potential SDI programs. These range from a modest protection of. some land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles to a very am bitious defense of civilians in cities. The last goal was what Mr. Reagan originally envisioned in his speech launching SDI in March 1983. Administration spokesmen have since low ered their sights, however. and are now aiming for a system that would be only partially effe<> tive: strategic defense combined with targeted cuts of 50 percent in the superpowers' offensive weapons. Such a combination could increast Soviet uncertainty; it would not actually repulse an attack. The OTA study says that the most modes1 option that of defending some ICBMs ii highly feasible "with technologies now fair!)
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--------flAN SCIENCE MONITOR THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 6, 1986 well understood." A middle goal of protecting all major military installations would be much more demanding and would "require major technological advances." However. a defense "of all or nearly all US cities in the face of unconstrained Soviet nuclear offensive forces does not appear feasible." In brief, the reasons for this judgment run as follows: A full defense is theoretically possible in terms of abstract physical laws and even the needed gigantic "improvements in hardware performance" are conceivable. The likelihood is remote, however, of designing the 21st-century computer software that would be sufficiently fast. reliable. and survivable in a hostile envi ronment to command the complex "star wars" hardware especially since the JO million lines of program instructions could never be coher ent.ly tested and debugged prior to the ultimate test of Armageddon itself. In addition, the nee essary space-based sensors and other compo nents tend to be more vulnerable to attack and countermeasures than are tht missiles they would be trying to hit. Some SDI advocates fault the OTA study for being too skeptical of SDI. Some SDI crit ics. on the other hand, are far ]D()re mistrustful of official optimism about SD! feasibility than is the"CQ'A especially in light of recent charges that k~SDI tests havi been contrived to produce positlvl? "84~lts. Impact of SDI on the nuclear slmdoff Reagan's longtenn goal forSDI is to inau gurate a new nuclear era in .tiich '"defense" would supplant "deterrence" .a produce "as sured security" instead of "assured destruc tion." But in the two decades r so that it will take to get from here to there, tae stated Ameri can policy is in fact to shore ll "deterrence" and rescue it from the uncel"UutY that befell it in the 1980s. when fixed land-b6ed missiles be came theoretically vulnerab, to a "first strike." Basically, the combination multiple war heads on a single launcher andiew accuracies gave the giant Soviet SS 18s an other missiles the capacity to destroy some 80 percent of American ICBMs in any surpl'1! attack ("first strike") in which the America missiles stay put in their silos for half an hou: This was what the incoming Reagan adminisudon decried as a "window of vulnerability." As the new. highly accurat.tAmerican Tri dent II and MX missiles now one on line. the Soviet Union in tum faces a "wdow of vulner ability," The US, too, is acquii1g the theoreti cal capacity to destroy Soviet :nd-based mis siles in a first strike thec?tical because everything would have to wonperfectJy in a mass firing never before tests and in polar trajectories never before tested,"he prospect is far more threatening to the So\t Union in the late 1980s than it was to the 6 in the early '80s. The US has only a fourtl>f its strategic warheads in this vulnerable beng mode, but the Soviet Union has three-fou.J\S of its strate gic warheads in this mode. Thus, even if the US lost all cits land-based missiles in a surprise attack, th,-fourths of its arsenal would still survive on ,mes and sub marines to retaliate against the iviet Union. If the Soviet Union lost all of its Jldbased mis siles in a surprise attack, hower. only one fourth of its arsenal would surv, to retaliate. l lence the Soviet objection i,t SDI threat ens to overthrow, at least temporily, the rough strate1,>ic equality of the past de1de and a half and to restore the American s11riority of the late 1960s, At the November s~rpower sum mit in Geneva, Communist PM General Sec ---------------------retary Mikhail Gorbachev complained to Reagan that SDI, despite its billing as purely defensive, could be used for attack and a few American scientists have in fact recently been speculating about a future offensive capability of SDI space lasers to ignite fire storms on earth More fundamentally. perhaps. Soviet spe cialists have been complaining that a "leaky" American strategic defense the only feasible version at this point makes sense only as an ominous guarantee of an American first strike. That is, a "leaky" American strategic defense that could not possibly protect the US against a Soviet attack with all 10,000 warheads might prove highly effective against only 2,500 resid ual Soviet warheads after an American first strike. Soviet retaliation -and Soviet ability to deter an initial American attack would no longer be assured. SDI enthusiasts would be quite happy with this disparity. And they argue that a final equi librium in which both sides possessed extensive strategic defense would also be satisfactory, be cause the two superpowers would then cancel out each other's capabilities. SDI critics, on the other hand, believe that this disparity would make the nuclear balance highly "unstable." especially in any crisis. The Soviets can be expected to imitate an American !trategic defense (probably with a lag of some five to eight years). The result, critics say, would be a leaky strategic defense on both sides for another two decades or so. This balance for a Soviet decision to escalate a crisis to a cen tral nuclear war might not be to gain a clear po litical or military objective: Instead, it may be to reduce what they fear could be a severe loss. In time of crisis we would not want the Soviet leadership to calculate that its least bad option was to start a nuclear war." The most ardent SDI enthusiasts dismiss these concerns by arguing that American tech nological exuberance and dynamism so far outshine Soviet innovation that Washington can always stay ahead of Moscow and domi nate confrontations. The arms control options The spectrum of SDI and arms control choices that now face the superpowers ranges from unhindered strategic defense and no arms control. a course American hard-liners could support, to offensive arms limits but no strat.e gic defense whatever, the course Moscow cur rently espouses. In between are various poten tial trade-offs of mutual cuts in offensive weapons against mutual restraints on strategic defense. The first extreme all SDI and no anns control is the probable result if the US con tinues to insist that SDI is non-negotiable. In the most comprehensive unclassified study of Soviet reactions to date (an Adelphi Paper of the International Institute for Strategic Stud iesl, Stephen Meyer of the Massachusetts Insti tute of Technology argues that the Soviets will never agree to deep offensive cuts unless SDI is The idea of using American technological genius to develop a system to protect us against nu clear missiles is meral and in the fundamental interests of our allies and the cause of peace. Ronald Reagan, Oct. 16, 1985 ['Star wars'] would not mili tarize space, but help demilitarize the arsenals of Earth. Ronakl Reagan, Jan. 22. 1985 would be highly "unstable." they believe, espe cially in any crisis. They reason that although partial defenses on both sides could not ward off an initial attack, whichever side shot first could ward off a weak "second strike" from the enemy. Whoever waited to fire second would suffer a disadvantage. Presumably neither side would be so rash as to gamble on a premeditated surprise attack but each would worry that the other might launch a panicky preemptive attack. In a crisis in which confrontation was escalating, with missiles poised, the pressures would be enor mous to "use 'em or lose 'em." Trigger fingers would be itchy. The structure of the nuclear bal ance which once would have permitted delay and allowed rational assessment of computer reports of an incoming attack would increase nervousness and compel an instant decision to launch or not to launch. This would be particularly true if space based elements of an SDI battle management system were preprogrammed to react within three to five minutes of even an ambiguous sig nal as they would have to be if they were to begin destroying enemy missiles in the crucial initial boost phase. Thus. as the O'. \ study put it, "The motive curtailed. This impasse would lead to open ended proliferation of offensive systems by both sides as the cheapest and quickest foil to the adversary's developing strategic defense, Hard-liners would view such an outcome with equanimity. They argue that the US would win this race. since the US is almost twice as rich and leads the Soviet Union in almost all categories of technology important for nuclear weapons and defense (according to Pentaton listings). The moderates in Washington primarily some activist ex-officials, the St.ate Depart ment, and. on ocasion, members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff are far less convinced of this scenario. They point to a Central Intelligence Agency study indicating that the Soviet Union would quickly outpace the US in unrestrained production of missiles because of ready Soviet assembly lines and the traditional Russian fe tish of quantity over quality. Political culture. too, would work against the US in an unconstrained arms race, given Americans' cyclical preference for butt.a:r over guns and the ability of the authoritarian Kremlin to im pose sacrifice on Soviet citizens. In the defensive race that would accompany the offensive race, virtually everyone agrees ,, ----------------------------
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READER'S DIGEST PLEASANTVILLE, NY MONTHLY 17 MIL. 2 MAR/0.l./.l.SBS Afl8lf P.Lff 5713 I ,--------1r I!} Our Toxic-Waste TiII1e Bolllb Condensed from TJME Some 60, ooo potentially hazardous chemicals are being used today in the United States. These chemicals have long been dumped or buried, because people were unaware of the extent and seriousness of the toxicity problem. That ignorance has proved tragic. And so far our efforts to cope with the growing public-health problem have been inadequate. The following is an update on this poisoning of America and what must now be done. THE GREAT toxic-waste mess began oozing into the na tion's consciousness about six years ago. "An environmental emergency," declared the Surgeon General in 1980. "A TIME {OCTOll!IER 141, '85), C J985 BY T1MI INC., TIMI: 4 LIFIE ILDG., AOcKE,ELlER CINTIA, HEW YORI(, N.Y.10020 ticking time bomb," warned the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The reaction was typically all-American: Congress created a grand-sounding "Superfund," a $1.6-billion, five-year crash pro gram designed in large part to clean up thousands of contaminat ed sites. During its early years, the Super fund dribbled away most of its money on a mismanaged effort that, accors ing to critics, did not adequately focus on the enormousness of the task ahead. Last September 30 its funding expired, and the Senate and House haven't at this writing com-1LLusTAAr10N: MICHAE\. IJ.AR\.ANO
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\} OUR TOXIC-WASTE TIME BOMB promised their differences over how many billions of dollars are to be authorized for the next five years. Meanwhile, fears about toxic wastes continue to grow. Each day, more and more communities dis cover they are living near dumps or atop ground that has been contami nated by chemicals whose once strange names and initials-dioxin, vinyl chloride, PBB, PCB-have be come household words. "We have a far bigger problem than we thought when Superfund was en acted," cautions Lee Thomas, the third director of the scandal-tar nished EPA during the Reagan Ad ministration. "There are far more sites that arc far more difficult to deal with than anybody ever antici pated." Says Barry Commoner, the environmental gadfly, "We arc poi soning ourselves and our posterity." The Office of Technology As sessment{OTAT,arescarch afm of Congress, contends there may be at least 10,000 hazardous-waste sites in the U nitcd States that pose a serious threat to public health. These dumps, where steel drums have been left to rust and leak, letting poisons seep into the earth for decades, arc scattered in virtually every county of every state. The cleanup cost, OTA estimates, could easily reach $100 billion for the federal government and $200 bil lion for local government and in dustry. Yet between 1980 and 1985, EPA put or proposed putting only 850 sites on its national priorities 182 list. Of these, it managed to clean up just 14 sites-and not very thoroughly at that, critics protest. However, EPA counters that it has cleaned up some 350 emergency sites. Why has so little been accom plished? "If we're looking for peo ple to blame, the woods are full of them," says William Ruckelshaus, who helped launch EPA as its first director during the Nixon Admin istration, and was recalled by Rea gan in 1983 to try to improve the agency. "The government had nev er dealt with anything like. this before. The fact that there were mismanagement, false starts and mistakes was inevitable." But even he admits that the EPA's toxic waste performance "didn't have to be as bad as it was." OTA claims that when EPA tackles a waste site, it seeks only a stopgap solution to the chemical seepage. One clump's wastes are often shifted to other locales better equipped to handle them, "which themselves may become Superfund sites," a 1985 OTA report says. "Risks are [thus] transferred from one community to another and to future generations." Some critics contend that delaying the expensive cleanup effort will mean greater expense in the future. "Delay not only prolongs the time that people arc exposed to toxic hazards," says Michael Pod horzer, director of the National Campaign Against Toxic Hazards, "but every day it means that more toxic chemicals are released into the. /\
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CAMDEN. TN CHRONICLE w. 5,300 JAN 2 9 1986 BU~t?ELLE'S ,i?ederal Law Must-Protect Our Groun;;;ter { .I. \0 }J}/\\.\. \ Ground~ater is the single most 1mpu1 icim muurai rquuH,,.. un ullll planet. Without an adequate supply of groundwater, we simply could not survive. Tennessee depends on clean groundwater. Fifty-one percent of all Tennesseans rely on groundwater for their drinking water. Our rural population depends almost exclusively on it. In parts of the state, par ticularly West Tennessee, all public water supplies come from the groundwater. Memphis, the largest city in our state, is totally depen dent on groundwater. Groundwater constitutes 960/o of all the fresh water in the United States. Mc;>re than 500/o of the entire U .S, population relies on ground-, water for its drinking water. And approximately 950/o of rural house-. holds nationwide depend on groundwater for drinking water, Yet we have allowed and continue to allow our precious ground:., water to be unnecessarily contaminated. The Congressional Office of: ~-_, .. .. ... Techno~r Assessment has estimated that over 200 contammants caq '' currentlyoefoun3mour groundwater supplies. Reckless epvirpnmen~, tal practices in the past, including hazardous waste disposal and ottierj dangerous activities, have caused some groundwater supplies acro$S th~\ country to become irrevocably contaminated. Nearly one-fourth of all!'. municipal drinking water systems show some contamination. Natioq-' ally, an estimated one to two percent of the total groundwater suppff is contaminated to some extent. Saddest of all, this groundwater contamination doesn't ha~e to happen. Indeed, most of it can be prevented. The key is to know what to do --and then do it. Once contaminated, groundwater cannot b~ cleaned up -at least not without tremendous expense. For that rea son, we must focus on prevention, to develop programs that will keep our groundwater from being oolluted in the first place. m October of this year, I cha1rea a con lerence m Nashville on Reporting To Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr. groundwater protection po11c1es wr rennessee and the Tennessee Valley region .. I heard first-hand from state and Jocal officials, represen tatives of business, scientists, and interested citizens, voicing their concern about the need for federal groundwater standards since no such standards currently exist. I have taken their ideas and suggestions and am now drjifting legislation to ensure the protection of our ground water supply. Currently there are sixteen federal laws that have some impact on groundwater protection .. But none of these laws has groundwater pro tection as its primary objective. Instead of a viable program, we have a hodgepodge of environmental statutes. It is a patchwork system that fails to protect our precious groundwater supply. The legislation I am drafting will likely include uniform quality standards for all parts of the country. Since Tennessee borders on seven states, more than any other state in the Union, and groundwater ig nores state boundries, we must develop uniform stand;uds for everyone. Groundwater is far too important to ignore any longer. Even though it is out of sight, we can't afford to let it be out of mind.
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I /'. -:e / America's budding biotech industry offers new hope against old ailments, from cancer to the common cold suPOnlrugs from genetic secrets It may be the greatest tonic for the heart since love and roses. While it won't cure the lovelorn, Tissue Plas minogen Activator is expected to be a godsend for the 1.5 million Americans victimized by heart attacks each year. Even more important, however, the revolutionary blood-clot dissolver known as TPA is likely to be the first blockbuster drug produced by the fledgling biotechnology industry. From medicine for heart attacks to treatments for dwarfism and cures for some forms of cancer, drugs that have been created through genetic manipula tion in the lab are being brought to market. More powerful and, in some cases, safer than conventional cura tives, they represent lucrative business opportunities for start-up companies and major pharmaceutical firms alike. According to the Congressional Qfu.. of Technology ..:1sessment, biotech dn:rg saleflWITTeacn $15 billion a year by the end of the century. Although the groundwork for the new drugs was done in the mid-l 970s, translating the new technology into useful products has not been easy. But in recent tests, TPA has been found so effective on humans that researchers at the National Institutes of Health have decided to bypass standard medical procedures in testing the drug's efficacy and are conducting clinical trials that are reserved for only the most promising medications. In another unusual endorse ment, the California chapter of Blue Cross announced last fall that it would pay pa tients' costs for using TPA even though the drug was still in the testing phase. Says Kathleen Behrens, a biotech analyst at the investment firm Robertson, Colman & Stephens: "This is the first biotech product that looked ., "''' ;'' every bit as good and maybe better once it hit the clinic." Another potential biotech blockbuster is a group known 54 BUSINESS: backing cancer-killing drugs onto an MAB that is designed to seek out cancer cells. When perfected, this would allow an MAB to deliver a much dead lier dose to the cancer itself than is currently possible with chemotherapy, while protect ing healthy cells nearby. Genentech's new biodrugs give that company a shot at the big time. Competitors can't lure the firm's scientists away at twice their pay Of all the new biodrugs, none has stirred more inter est than the agents known as interferon and interleukin. Laboratory-created versions of these substances, which are found in minute quanti ties in the body and are known to play a role in regu lating the immune system, could help treat everything from cancer to the common cold. One form of interferon currently is being considered by the Food and Drug Ad ministration as a treatment for a type of leukemia that claims about 10 percent of leukemia victims. The drug also may help treat Kaposi's sarcoma, a cancer often asso ciated with AIDS, and even help baule the virus that ac counts for 40 percenL-of all colds. as monoclonal antibodies (MAB's). The technology, which is based on cloning antibodies that can home in on specific trouble spots, was first applied in diag nostic kits in 1980. These kits, which test for everything from acquired-immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) to preg nancy, already generate $200 million in annual sales. But the greatest potential for the technology is as a treatment against cancer. Scientists at several com panies already are working at piggy-In recent tests with a ver sion of interleukin at the National Institutes of Health, 11 of 25 patients suffer ing from advanced forms of cancer reacted positively to the drug. Says Dr. Edward Bradley, director of clinical bi ology at Cetus Corporation, which is the industry leader in interleukin, "Be hind the hype are impressive responses to a wide variety of tumors." Several other biotech drugs are expected to hit the market soon. They include vaccines against malaria and o U.5.PlliilO'S Iii lMlftLD REPORT. March 24, 1986
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EASTON, PA EXPRESS o. 46,286 s. 4B,ono MAR ll 198n !l!!!?/fEL..t.E~s Study faults unit tra1n1ng on hazards ~sJ1ucatiqOQAGE~s urged _, By DAVID GOELLER terials moving daily on highways, Associated Press writer rail lines and waterways. WASHINGTON Police and Page told a news conference that firefighters urgently need more a joke among hazardous-response training so they can respond proppersonnel is that you bring tennis erly to accidents involving trucks, shoes and binoculars to an accident trains and barges carrying nuclear using the shoes to flee to a safe mater i a 1 s and hazardous distance and the binoculars to read chemicals, congressional re-the placard. searchers say. "Then you call for expert help," she said. ''This is often said in "Three-quarters of the first rejest, but there's a strong element sponders are not adequately of truth in it." trained to deal with hazardous subThe agency said that while some stances," according to Edith Page, states and metropolitan areas have who directed an Office of Technolgood response programs, "most ogy Assessrr1~ntsfudy"critical of first responders in smaller urban the nation's accident response abiland rural areas have not been ity trained to deal with hazardous ma" Additional training for public ter~a!s, d~pite many existing safety personnel in hazardous matrammg programs. terials emergency response is ur-"No national standards for gently needed," the agency, a nontraining programs are currently in partisan congressional research place, leading,. to the independent body, said in the study released development:i
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SAN DIEGO, CA DAILY TRANSCRIPT D. 8,645 MAR 11 1986 Bu_~.Ei.i..Ers 1 Police, Firefighters Lack Toxic Accidents' Skills (_p;;)C:7 1/ WASHINGTON (UPD -Many police and firefighters do not know how to handle accidents involving transportation of hazardous mate rials, and the nation lacks stan dards to teach them, congressional researchers said yesterday. A report by the congressional Offie of Techn,2!,ogx Asses~m,~!_l.~ sa1d finding an effective way to train police, generally the first to arrive at an accident scene, is "the most pressing national need in emergency response." Training efforts are uneven, the report said, with local authorities in major metropolitan areas often well equipped to handle accidents. "However, most first responders in smaller urban or rural areas have not been trained to deal with hazardous materials, despite many existing training programs," the researchers said in a summary of their findings. "Moreover, no national standards for training programs are currently in place, leading to the independent development of different training programs, some of which are inadequate," they added. "National guidelines or training standards ... are needed to en sure adequate training.'' In many cases, local governments need financial assistance for enforcement and emergency response training and planning, -the report said. It suggested the states or federal government pay, or that cooperative programs with industry or user fees might provide the funding. Safety information included with between one-quarter and one-half of the shipments is incorrect, the report said, am. shipping papers are sometimes incomplete or unavailable. "Emergency crews must assess the risks of the hazardous material and make decisions on how to respond based on information that may or may not be accurate," the researchers said. Informational placards should clearly state the nature of the haz ardous material, they said, and how to respond in case of an accident. The study found gasoline and petroleum products -the most frequently transported hazardous materials -are involved in the most accidents. They also account for more injuries and more damage than other hazardous substances. Besides petroleum products, hazardous materials include more than 2,400 chemicals, explosives, toxic wastes and radioactive substances, the report said. It estimated more than 180 million shipments of the materials are made each year, or 500,000 a day.
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THE COMMERCIAL APPEAL MEMPHIS, TENN. 0. 230,666 SUN. 289,0ffi MAR 12 1986 Bv~Eu.FS Gore plans legislation on transporting-waste (o;).C,'l t "One of the principal findings Washington Bureau of this study bas been that while : WASHINGTON Sen. Albert I Gore Jr. (D-Tenn.) plans to in troduce a bill to set up a federal clearinghouse to help state and local governments pl
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11 l f .SPOKANE, WA THE SPOKESMAN-REVIEW D. 82,711 S. 139,690 MAR 13 1986 Hazardous materials def yf resp~~P~t~ams "Bring tennis shoes apd binoculars tial to a spill of toxic or nuclear materials Last March, Richard Sweetland, as the shoes to help you get a safe dissistant chief of the Spokane Fire De-'tance away quickly and the binoculars partment and head of the region's only to help you read the placard on the full-fledged hazardous materials re truck." sponse team, said Spokane was as preThat joke is making the rounds pared as it could be, given the imper among emergency-response personnel, feet state of the art. Kootenai (Idaho) according to the director of vnew Fire District 1 Capt. Don Donart said study on the transportation of hazardthen that Kootenai County, which has ous materials. The study, done by a more than 60,000 people, most of nonCpartisan congressional agency, the whom live within a few miles of Inter Oftice of Technqlqgy Asu~mAAt, constate 90, was not well-prepared for duaes thattfiree-fourtlis or the nasuch emergencies, primarily because tion's police and firefighters are inadeof a lack of proper equipment. quately trained to respond to accidents They're not strangers to the issue of involving hazardous materials. improper labeling, either. It was at That comes as no surprise to offiabout that same time that inadequate cials of Inland Empire emergency-relabeling and difficulty in finding solid sponse units, who readily admitted in information on bow to proceed delayed interviews a year ago that they were cleanup of a spill of hazardous materi inadequately equipped or trained to als on 1-90 near Coeur d'Alene Lake. deal with spills of hazardous materials The description was legally adequate on highways and railroads. but sufficiently vague that it took time Even if the team on the scene has for officials to determine exactly what the training, the new study says, imthey were dealing with. proper labeling of the vehicle's conToday, Sweetland and Donart say tents could produce an incorrect, danthey've made some training improve gerous response. ments. They include the sending of adAdoption of federal training reditional personnel to the National Fire sponse standards to replace the assortAcademy, updated radiological moni ment of state requirements is one of toring training for the Spokane depart the study's recommendations. Others ment and acquisition of a hazardous include continued federal support for materials vehicle and development of state enforcement programs and betan ongoing training program in conter training and national licensing of junction with a Spokane team for the operators of vehicles carrying hazardKootenai unit. ous substances. But neither Sweetland nor Donart There are 500,000 daily shipments of thinks that's enough. hazardous materials on U.S. highways, "I don't think anybody ever gets to rail lines and waterways, the agency tally prepared," Sweetland said. "The says. more you learn, the more you realize The U.S. Transportation Department you don't know." says there was a yearly average of Donart said he would not say his de11,462 accidents involving hazardous partment personnel are as trained as materials between 1973 and 1983. But they should be. They are "trained as the Office of Technology Assessment well any other departments in the disputes department figures indicating area, but to what standard?" the number of accidents involving hazImplementation of the Office of ardous materials is decreasing, claimTechnology Assessment's recommen ing poor data collection and substandations would answer that question.'\
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TV CLIPS DATE TIME STATION LOCATION PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD ; LIVINGSTON NEW JERSEY 07039 (201) 992-6600 1 (800) 631-1160 March 10, 1986 10:00-11 :00 PM WTTG-TV(Ind.) Channel Five Washington The 10 O'clock News James Adams, co-anchor: ACCOUNT NUMBER NIELSEN AUDIENCE 10/6297 Y 162,000 And only about one-quarter of the nation's police and firefighters are properly trained to respond to accidents involving hazardous materials. That is the conclusion tonight of a new study by the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, a research arm of the Congress. It says local governments must develop better ways of training safety personnel to deal with accidents. Edith Page (Office of Technological Assessment): Although large urban jurisdictions, like Houston and New York, that have had many such accidents may have a trained hazardous materials response team, about three-quarters of the nation's first responders are not adequately trained to deal with hazardous materials. Adams: And in the Washington area there are no hazardous material control units in Arlington, Anne Arundel, Howard, Loudoun and Prince William counties. 129 Words 11 Clips Video cassettes al'e available in any fol'mat fol' a pel'iod of four weeks from ail" date from our affiliate: VIDEO MONITORING SERVICES OF AMERICA, INC. (212)736-2010
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Where Superfund's turf ends Last week. the l:. S. Supreme Court took the middle ground in the debate over the extent to which the 1980 Su perfund Act curbs a state's power to impose its own chemical spill taxes. The justices, in a 7-1 vote, refused to abolish the excise tax that New Jersey has levied since 1977 on its chemical and oil plants, but they did limit the ways in which the state can use the proceeds from that tax. "We're pleased," says Peggy Ball man, assistant director of the Chemical Justice Mar.shall: Taking the middle ground. Industry Council of New Jersey, "that the court upheld our original positionthat you can't tax companies twice for the same purpose." Jim Staples, a public information officer at ~ew Jersey's Dept. of Environ mental Protection. savs that even after the court's ruling, the department will have little trouble spending the spill-tax money. He estimates that it now gener ates about :iil million/ month. As for financing waste cleanup work. Staples notes that the state has set aside about SlOO million in general reve nues for that purpose, in case Superfund monies run out. Those funds. he says, would be used only to finance pro jects that have already been authorized under Superfund. In the Supreme Court case, the key issue was the meaning of a section of the 1980 federal Superfund law referred to as the "preemption provision." It states that "no person may be required to contribute to any fund, the purpose of which is to pay compensation for claims for any costs of response or damages or claims which may be compensated" by the federal fund. The oil refiners and chemical companies insisted that this provision meant that New Jersey had to ; stop collecting the tax, be: cause some of the monev would go for the kind of cleanup mentioned in the federal statute. New Jersey argued that it could collect the money and use it for any cleanup job not paid for by Washington. Stand. The high court bought neither argument. but instead took a moderate stand fashioned around the interpretation offered by the Justice Dept. Associate Justice Thurgood Marshall. who wrote the majority opinion, says that money raised by a state's special purpose taxes cannot be used for any cleanups of the kind that Superfund might cover, regardless of whether Superfund actually pays for the job. onethe less, he says that there are expenditures for which :S-ew Jersey can continue to tax selected industries. They include picking up the state's 10% share of Superfund projects, reimbursing third parties for cleanup costs, compensating those dam aged by hazardous substance dis charges, conducting research, and pay ing for administration and equipment. "It seems clear," Marshall writes. "that the decision to enact a preemption provision resulted in part from Con gress'::; concern about the potentially adverse effects of overtaxation on the competitiveness of the American petro chemical industrv. That consideration. whether wise or not, cautions against our concluding that Congress would not have wanted to hinder state attempts to clean up hazardous substances in anv wav." The high court's decision :;ettles the debate over the legitimacy of ~ew Jer sey' s tax collections until Sept. :30. 1985, the date Superfund's authorization expired. What remains to be seen is what type of preemption provision, if any, the new Superfund law will contain. In ver sions of the replacement legislation passed by both the Senate and House, the preemption provision has been omit ted. But now that the Supreme Court has given a definitive interpretation, the lawmakers may take a second look at the omission. 0 DAlVIEL B .'r!OSKOWITZ in Washington. with Daniel Katzenberg OTA looks at hazards in chemical transport I....,_ :,-f With"' Congress facing an Oct. 1 deadline to reauthorize the Hazardous Materials Transportation Act, it is gearing up to review the Dept. of Tran:iportation's (DOT) regulation of the 500,000 ship ments of chemicals and other potentially dangerous substances that are hauled daily by truck, train, barge or plane. There is plenty of grist for the congressional mill, according to a new report from the Office of_ Technology Assessrrtent (9TAL"Tnonpartisan congressional research agency. The report highlights lack of training and inaccu rate labeling of shipments as problems encountered in T.:'. S. programs for haz ardous substances transport. 'An effective wav to deliver hazard ous materials training to first respond ers is the most pressing national need in emergency response," OTA says, noting the need for nationwide training program standards. ..\.bout three-quar ters of the police and fire officials who respond first to hazardous materials accidents are not sufficientlv trained to deal with them, says Edith B. Page, OTXs project manager. She adds that some existing training programs "are simply inadequate." On training, "I would endorse the OTA findings whole heartedly," says Clifford J. Harvison, managing director of the )." ational Tank Truck Carriers, a trade group that rep resents man\' truckers. Trucks carrv at least half of all chemicals and hazard ous materials in the C. S. Inaccurate. ..\nother big problem, Page says, is that because of ignorance or carelessness. many shipments carry inaccuratemarkings. although often not March 19. 1986/ihsrn,cal Week 11
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\.,./ deliberately. Based on state surveys, she adds, placards that identify sub stances being transported are incorrect on 25-50% of the shipments. However. Richard M. Doyle, associate director for distribution programs at the Chemical Manufacturers Assn. (OIA), says that OTA's figures on markings are "mis leading." The figures, he says, include instances in which one of the four plac-ards on a tank comes off, or in which a tank carries a quantity of a hazardous substance that is below the level requir ing a placard. evertheless, the chemical industry has expanded its safety efforts. In 1984, in conjunction with truckers, CMA devel oped a system that allows shippers to monitor carriers' safety programs. In March 1985, CMA established a program under which chemical plant managers set up contingency response plans in their neighboring communities. Leaming resources. CMA also has developed a multipronged Chemical Response and Information Center, which includes its 15-year-old CHEMTREC emergency response hot line, another 800 number to answer the public's health and safety questions about chemicals, and a program set up last November to get other chemical industry rep resentatives to the scene of a spill, if the shipper is out of reach. The plan also includes a lending library of train ing films for local fire and police depart ments, established last September, and a film demonstrating the right and 12 Chemical Week/March 19, 1986 wrong ways to approach a spill scene. The number of hazardous materials incidents declined between 1981 and 1984, according to DOT statistics. However, Page questions the DOT data. 'We're not sure whether [the trend is] getting better or worse," she says, because accident information "is so poor." The OTA report notes that a large number of incidents are not reported to DOT. The costs associated with those that are reported, OTA says, "appear to be greatly underestimated," maybe by a factor of 10. Information on injuries and fatalities "is probably very good," Harvison says. However, he suggests that information on "incidents that involve only product release. particularly for common petroleum products, are probably underreported." More research. In addition. OTA plans to have a broader studv on hazardous materials transport ready for Congress this spring. In February, a DOT task force released a report that recommends beefing up the department's enforcement and rule-making efforts. A separate, DOT-appointed hazardous materials advisory group-including repre sentatives of industry and government-is expected to submit a report this month to Transportation Dept. Sec-Fire fighters hone their skills in responding to hazardous materials accidents, a concern in OTA's report on hazardous materials transport. retary Elizabeth H. Dole. One major recommendation: setting up a federal emergency response fund to be fl. nanced by shippers, producers and car riers. Observers are sanguine about the transport situation. "I think hazardous materials transportation is safe, and I think it's getting safer," says Harvison. "On the grand scale," Page says that materials are being hauled safely, but she feels that more needs to be done. CMA's Doyle concurs. "We think improvements can be made," he says, "by stepping up enforcement and by provid ing a coordinated approach to improv ing emergency response training." D TOM ICHNIOWSKI in Wa.,hi'ngton, with Susan R. Jones. ... ----Aiming for increased exports After a hiatus of several years, the U. S. Commerce Dept.'s International Trade Administration (ITA) is revving up a program designed to help U. S. manufacturers boost exports. ITA is working with 10 trade shows this year to help international buyers and sellers get together in fields that hold ,;signifi cant export potential." The new look was unveiled last week in Atlantic City where some 30,000 delegates flooded through 750 exhibits of the latest advances in analytical industry instrumentation. About 1,000 of the visitors came from overseas in direct response to the new program. "We have had delegations from the People's Republic of China, Japan, Germany, England, Sweden and France," says Michael Frisby, director of marketing development for the Commerce Dept.'s U.S. Foreign and Commercial Service (lTSFCS), Washington. D. C. Sophisticated market The delegates were shopping at the Pittsburgh Conference and Exposition, the premier showcase for instrumentation in the field of analytical chemistry. The sophisticated devices for that market include robots, lasers, mass spectro meters and an expansive array of other computer-controlled equipment. Last year, the U. S. exported $1.3 billion worth of optical and analytical instruments, according to Commerce Dept. figures. Routine laboratory appa-I
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LAWRENCE, MA EAGLE-TRIBUNE ll ,;~,S,f _Technolo~~el>$JDeDt. OT A, which advises lawmakers _on scientific and technological matters, said state officials also are hampered in their enforcement duties because 25 percent to 50 percent of the placards used to identify hazardous products in s~pment are incorrect. More than 4 billion tons of hazardous products and waste in niore than 2,400 varieties are transported throughout the United States annually. Each year there are about 11,500 accidents, a rate of 1.25 incidents for every 10,000 shipments. Haulers of gasoline and petro leum products account for half the hazardous-materials accidents and most of the injuries, the report said, but only five states require anything more than an ordinary trucker's license for those drivers. "The nephew or the son of the owner can drive the vehicle," said Edith Page, a principal author of the OT A report. Three-quarters of the public safety officials police, highway patrol, firefighters -who would respond first to such accidents have no specia\ training in how to deal with the hazardous material, said OT A. M~ Page said any person who might have to respond to such an emergency should have at least two days of training. The report called for uniform stan dards for training of special re sponse teams. The report also said the Depart ment of Transportation wasn't doing enough to encourage unifor mity among the states. One trucker told OT A he had to make 20 calls in five different states before he started on a trip. DOT has been able to persuade 25 states to adopt uniform regula tions and encourage training through $3 million in grants but funding ends this year. The report goes to the Senate Commerce Committee, which is considering hazardous-materials and truck-safety legislation, includ ing a bill by its chairman, Sen. John Danforth, R-Mo., for a nation al license for truck drivers Danforth's bill will get another boost in a few weeks when a DOT advisory committee formally recJ ommends the department devise a I national test that states could give to haulers of hazardous materials.
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RADIO CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD AVENUE I LIVINGS TON I NEW JERSEY 07039 (201) 992-6600 I (212) 227-55 70 I (800) 631 7160 March 11, 1986 5:00-9:00 AM MT National Public Radio Morning Edition Bob Edwards reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 10/6297 Y Major reforms are needed in transporting hazardous waste across state lines: That's the conclusion of a new Congressional report. The story from NPR's Bonnie Erbe. Erbe: Each day, half a million shipments of hazardous waste are made across the U.S. and a report by Congress's Office of Technology Assessment says truckers and shippers are in a quandary about what safety procedures they have to follow because they vary so much. OTA's Edith Paige: Paige: State and local governments have restricted the routes that hazardous material shippers use or the hours that shipments are permitted. They may also require licensing, registration or permits, advanced notification of special shipments or other special procedures, and sometimes even escorts for especially hazardous materials movement. Erbe: Paige says uniformity is needed. She also says the first people to arrive on the scene of an accident involving toxic chemicals are local police or fireman. In many cases, she says, they aren't properly trained to deal with toxic substances. The OTA report says there should be uniform national training programs set up and the federal government should help pay. I'm Bonnie Erbe. 189 WORDS 16 CLIPS
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./ Hazardous Transport Study ol ~!Js Spill Crews Inadeq11ate ,.,,... By DAVID M. CAWTHORNE pared at the request of the Senate and LEO ABRUZZESE Commerce Committee. Journa1 01 Commerce statt --~..,,. ,,-:~ The major hazardous materials WASHINGTON Fire depat t :.Jtransportation problem involves the ments and emergency response amount of training for fire departcrews need better training and more ments that clean up toxic spills, the data to handle hazardous materials study will conclude. transportation spills, an Office of The problem is not as severe Technology Assessm_ent study to be where chemical plants are concenreleased next week reveals. trated or along main transport corri-Tbe report also indicates that dors, OTA said, since fire depart-government estimates about the ments are aware of the chance of number of accidents involving hazspills and usually are trained to fight ardous goods which range from them. tank carloads of chemicals and raThese plants are concentrated in dioactive shipments to common the Gulf Coast areas of Texas and items like butane lighters are far Louisiana, in the Midwest around below actual levels. Chicago and in Michigan and in the The report's conclusions are ex pected to receive attention from Congress when government funding for these programs comes up this year. The OTA analysis was pre-Middle Atlantic states. Training is the top priority for improvement in this area, the report will conclude, especially for weSEE HAZAROOUS, PAGE7 A
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L l ,-< :' Bv~liU.E'S Hazarious Transport Study Calls Spill Cre,vs Inadequate 111g the type of commodity hauled. CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1 A Police and fire departments refer to fighters. policemen and others who have to handle such spills. The major problem is in areas where the mdustry is not concentrat ed but where trucks use interstates, freewa)'ll and other key roads to ban dle the goods. "They often don't know what to do and often don't have the training to know that water or foam are not effective on some commodities that are spilled, a source familiar with the report said. The fire department also may not have the right type of protective gear to use to fight the spill, the source added. For example, firefighters cleaning up a recent spill bad their booU eaten away whe11 benzine spilled on them. In another incident, a commodity congealed on a police man's trousers and llamaged the trooper's lungs when bis car heater vaporized it "Tbey have to be aware that some of these spills must be ap proached with caution, the offlc.tal added. The situation is aggravated by improper placarding of vehicles by shippers and carriers. Federal law requires that trucks hauling ~d-01111 materials bear placards mdicatthe placards to figure out how to handle a spill. Tbi.S information is quite important since different strategies must be followed for different shipments. For e:tample, spraying water or foam on some spills might not work while other chemicals have such low flub points that it is safer just to let them burn out. The study also indicates that be tween 25% and 5-0% of all shipments are mi.Sidentiiied, which can create major problems. The amount of information 011 hazardous materials acddents also is not complete, the report will con clude, since public statistics are based on Department of Transporta tion accident records, wbicb also have gaps. The hazardous materials problem may be considerably more severe th.an in the pa.st, the source said, but it is far from a horror situation. But the N!pOrt will cooclude that only about one-third of hazardous materials shipments are actually re ported to the DOT and the impact of many that are may be understated. Federal law requires that only shipments spilled in interstate com merce be reported. a source familliu' with industry actions in thiS area said, so accidents involving goods moving within a single state's border may not be reported. The DOT rules also require that reports be filed within two weeks after an accident occurs, which may result in their impact being under stated. Several government agencies be sides the DOT have power to act in this area. which also creates a re porting problem since their rE!<]mrements differ. Agencies acuve 111 this area include the Environmental Pro tection Agency as well as the Nucle ar Regulatory Commission and the Department of Energy, which get involved in nuclear fuel or waste ship ments. But business is moving on its own to deal with some of the problems, and that is having a significant im pact on the transportation industry. For example, some companies have decided to reduce the s12e of their inventory so hazardous materi als do not have to be stored on the plant site. This has resulted in a major drop in the amount of traffic for tanker barges. which usually haul the largest shipments of these goods. Some manufacturers also have staned to switch orders tram far away corporations to companies that have facilities closer to the destina tion. This significantly reduces the distance a .;h1pment must travel.
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TIFTON, GA GAZETTE 0. 9,353 MAR 17 1986 Allll..n,cs I l~adequate __ ,l;. /q,'J:-i 7. f : :~. "" : fDlTORIAL There 1s s~metrung in :: .. The., s1t\lation dangerously how our society handles the complicates the task of. police c movement of hazardous and firefighters when a train'.. materials. . or truck carrying hazardous The present system. does not,,, susbstances is involved'. in an adequately deal .with this1~'-:_:accid~nt Not knowing wl)at a problem, a fact confirmed by_a:,;~. ruptured tank-or other tanks report from the congressional nearby -: contains may leaq. to Office of e c hn o log~:.~;;. a critic~y wrong response. 1 ,Assessment:. It 1S .ehillliig a .. -.. .,. best to realize that 'all sorts of !. A. further comphcation poisonous and-or., explosive_: .. perhap~ .th~ ___ most. serio~~:.of 1 stuff ~avels through populous: all -:hts, m le~mng.th~t. '!5:: areas m trucks and tank cars percent of. t~e n,atlon. s .. The chill is deepened by firefighters and-police-offi;~rs.: information that many su~h _:-haye npt __ ~n-offer~ct.suf~ shipments are wrongly ,".fic1ent traunng to penmt thent labeled. In the event of acto respond~ safely. to-su~h -3:ccident, this could have. cide~ts.. ~. : ,;::: :. \; disastrous consequences. 'rr,~ining programs..surely~, Shipping documents, the. must be stepped up;. the report denotes, often ar-e ( :, labeling mess cleaned up, and, "incomplete or inaccessible.".;,-; .. most of all, the.entire attitude From 25 to 50 percerit' of tmr,: of handling hazardous waste required identification materials perked up. To do placards on hazardous anything less will continue to material shipment$:,' ~re in:9. expose unsuspecting citizens to l correct, .. ,, ,: ., a potential disaster beyond Thi$ is intolerable~, .. .imagination. -..
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OCEAH COUHTV OBSERVER T01i5 RIVER, HJ DAILY 26178 ; >> .J. MAR/18/1986 _QJ!.{~..1:..~ I -, --. S~~y,:. ,Fuel-cell powered boats far in future -.,.,,.. I 'I The scream of powerboats on While the cells, which convert technology development, according applications,'' according to the OTA. Barnegat Bay will not be quieted chemical energy into electricity can to the Congressional Office _<>f The cells directly convert chemical anytime soon by the use of fuel cells, power a boat, the marine market ls Technology Assessment. energy of a fuel, like hydrogen ot a federal study predicts. not large enough to propel fuel cell Th~ cells could be used where quiet ~ydrogen-ri.ch gas, and a? oxi~ant operation ls necessary where power mto electncal energy. 1 hey also demands vary widely, or in small produce heat. submarines the OTA study found. ';l'~e c~lls hold great pro~mse for the utility mdustry, accordmg to the Fuel cell technology is "one of the OT A. most promising of the new electric Commercial marine applications power technologies being developed are not expected until the technology but to date almost no attention has becomes an established part of utility been given to potential marine and cogeneration operations.
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American Association for the Advancement of Science Science serves its readers as a forum for the presentation and d1scuss1on of important issues related to the advancement of science, including the presentatiOn of minority or conflicting points of view, rather than by publishing only material on which a consensus has been reached. Accordingly, all articles published in Science-including editorials. news and comment, and book reviews-are signed and reflect the indi vidual views of the authors and not official points of view adopted by the AAAS or the institutions with which the au thors are affiliated. Publisher: William D. Carey Editor: Darnel E. Koshland, Jr. Deputy Editors: Philip H. Abelson (Engineering and Applied Sciences); John I. Brauman (Physical Sciences); Gardner Lindzey (Social Sciences) EDITORIAL STAFF Managing Editor: Patricia A Morgan Assistant Managing Editors: Nancy J. Hartnagel, John E. Ringle Senior Editors: Eleanore Butz, Lawrence I. Grossman, Ruth Kulstad Associate Editors: Martha Collins, Sylvia Eberhart, William Greaves, Barbara Jasny, Katrina L. Kelner. Edith Meyers Letters Editor: Christine Gilbert Book Reviews: Katherine Livingston, editor: Linda Heiser man Thia Week In Schlncr. Ruth Levy Guyer Chief Production Editor: Ellen E. Murphy Editing Department: Lois Schmitt, heact: Caitilin Gordon, Stephen Kepple. Lisa McCullough Copy Desk: Isabella Bouldin, chief; Mary McDaniel. Sharon Ryan, Beverly Shields Production Manager: Karen Schools Graphics and Production: John Baker, assistant manager; Holly Bishop, Kathleen Cosimano, Eleanor Warner Covers Editor: Grayce Finger Manuscript Systems Analyst: William Carter NEWS STAFF News Editor: Barbara J. Culliton News and Comment: Colin Norman, deputy editor; Mark H. Crawtord, Constance Holden, Eliot Marshall. A. Jeffrey Smith, MarJQrie Sun. John Walsh R-rch News: Roger Lewin, deputy editor; Deborah M. Barnes, Richard A. Kerr, Gina Kolata, Jean L. Marx. Arthur L. Robinson, M. Mitchell Waldrop Europeen Conespondent: David Dickson BUSINESS STAFF Chief Business Officer: William M. Miller, Ill Business Stall Supervisor: Deborah Rivera-Weinhold Associate Business Supervisor: Leo Lewis Membership Recruitment: Gwendolyn Huddle Member and Subscription Records: Ann Ragland Guide to Biotechnology Products and Instruments Editor: Richard G. Sommer ADVERTISING REPRESeNTA TIVES Director: Earl J. Scherago Production Manager: Donna Rivera Advertising Sales Manager: Richard L. Charles Marketing Manager: Herbert L. Burklund Sales: New York, NY 10036: J. Kevin Henebry, 1515 Broad way (212-730-1050); Scotch Plains, NJ 07076: C. Richard Callis, 12 Unami Lane (201-889-4873): Chicago, IL 60611 Jack Ryan, Room 2107, 919 N. Michigan Ave. (312-3374973); Beverly Hills, CA 90211: Winn Nance, 111 N. La Cien ega Blv. (213-657-2772); San Jose, CA 95112: Bob Brindley, 310 S. 16 St. (408-998-4690); Dorset. VT 05251: Fred W. Dief fenbach. Kent Hill f'ld. (802-867-5581). Instructions for contributors appears on page xi of the 20 De cember 1985 issue. Editorial correspondence, including requests for permission to reprint and reprint orders, should be sent to 1333 H Street, NW, Washington. DC 20005. Tele phone: 202-326-6500. Advertising correspondence should be sent to Tenth Floor. 1515 Broadway, NY 10036. Telephone 212-730-1050. 7 MARCH 1986 SciENCE Sources for New Scientists 7 MARCH 1986 VOLUME 231 NUMBER 4742 G ovemment reports can be hazardous to one's wakefulness. Many seem to consist of mo~n~ains of glittering generalities, interrupted only by murky ~nd distantly related stat1st1cs. The recent Office of Technology Assessment report on scientific man power* is an exception. It has real numbers that relate directly to the words in the text. For those of us who heard warnings only a few years ago that the United States was overproducing scientists, the report causes instant alertness. The long-term demographic trends described point to a shortage of scientists. The peak in the 18-to 23-year-old age group of approximately 30 million occurred in 1982; there are expected to be 24 million in that age group in 1995. This could lead to a 12 to 16 percent decrease in college enrollment. The problem will be compounded if, as many believe, the furure need for scientists becomes more acute. Since women and minorities are underrepre sented among practicing scientists, it would be both advantageous for those groups and prudent for the country to consider ways to increase not only the number of young people entering college but also the ratio of those choosing science as a career. Two model programs are addressing the need to expose disadvantaged youths to careers in science. One is Project Seed, sponsored by the American Chemical Society. This program, admirably stripped of bureaucratic red tape, allows chemists around the country to receive approximately $750 for the hiring of a disadvantaged high school srudent for a 10week laboratory job. More then 200 students took part in this program last year and that number is growing steadily as foundations and private donors provide additional funds. A National Science Foundation program in the division of biological sciences allows profes sors to receive small grant supplements for the same purpose. This project, too, requires a minimum of red tape: since the scientist is already accredited by having received an NSF grant, only a brief request containing minimal information is required for a stipend similar in size to that of Project Seed. 0,. These programs should be expanded in other agencies and with other sources of funds. Government agencies could well follow the NSF formula; private groups could pattern programs on Project Seed. Let us scientists not wait, however, but lead the way with good programs without red tape. The opportunity to give disadvantaged srudents exposure to science in a friendly environment can be effective at an early and formative stage in their lives. My participation in a local disadvantaged youth program once resulted in the challenge of devising an appropriate summer program for a junior high school srudent in a working biochemistry laboratory. Many tasks necessary in a laboratory designed for graduate srudents become boring, but can be a revelation for a junior high srudent. Our young co-worker toiled diligently beside us throughout the summer, and everyone in the laboratory enjoyed recalling past excitement as we saw old chores through his eyes. At summer's end the student said, "Now I understand why one should work to get good grades in high school." These words have affected my thinking ever since, because many srudents from disadvantaged homes do not realize the importance of academic performance until it is too late. Those who want to contribute to the current efforts can contact Project Seed at the American Chemical Society or the National Science Foundation. Often local organizations provide similar opportunities. Also, professionals with experience in this area say that the head of a laboratory can simply phone a local high school, speak with the principal or a guidance counselor, and select an appropriate student, even in the absence of a formal sponsoring organization. The NSF and ACS projects are not the only programs of intervention occurring, nor are they a substitute for improved instruction in the public school system, but-for simplicity and effectiveness-they deserve encouragement. They can be implemented almost instantly without the need to work through large supervisory machinery. In an era of emphasis on "more bang for the buck," the output in this case could be a very big bang for some very small bucks.-DANIEL E. KoSHLAND, JR. *Office ofTcchnoloizy Assessment, "Demographic trends in the science and engineering work force" (OTA-TM-SET35, Government Pnnting Office, Washington, DC, December 1985). EDITORIAL 1053
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, Panel Reports Sex DisQarity wASIIINGTON. [){-c. 25 (AP) NOi .,.,1y arc women who an: scientists and ... ~inet:rs paid less and receive fewer ;,rumotiuns lhan !.heir male counter~rts. but they are also discouraged :ivm taking such jobs in the first place. ... congressional survcy'says. S,ex discrimination and stereotyping 41~l men into the sciences and ..o1nen into nursing. education and rei.,,1.-d fields, according to a report re-s~ Tuesday by the Office of Tech...,._)gy Assessment. tn a survey of college freshmen in ~. the report said, 20 percent of the enefil6 of their 111ves1ment in science and engineering education cr(xied by potential unemployment and underutilization in the work force ... Demo1c:raphlc Trends Over all, the agency round that two significant demographic trends could afft_-ct the supply of scientists and engi neers First, it said there will be a decline in the college-age population over 1he next decade. The number of IS.. 10 24-year-olds is expected to drop from a peak of 30 million in 1982 to about 24 million in 1995. Labor market special isls estimate this decline could lead to a drop in college enrollmcnl-5 of 12 p.:r cent 10 16 percent. Second. there will be an increase 111 the fraction of the IS10 2i-year-0lds that will be drawn from minority populations. including the black, Hispanic or Asian-American. The first two groups have historically panicipated less actively in sci<:nce and engineering eduction than non-Hispanic whiles. the repor1 said.
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PITTSBURGH POST-GAZETTE PITTSBURGH, PA 0. 173,8313 SAT. lll2,556 .l.~N 71 ll)~f, BU!J..~ Salary differences Agency studies trends on scientific work force le,) C'f1'/ WASHINGTON (AP) Senior everyemployn_ient sector and at.~mparable and engineering that require major women scientists and engineers levels of expenence," OTA says m its 145educational and labor force commitments," often receive lower salaries than page report. the report says. their male ~ounterp~rts, although "In academia, men are far more likely But Frankel says t~ese ~roblems ~ome in :oth sexes entered their professions at the than women to hold tenure-track positions, to the context of dfamatlc gams made m t~e last ,ame wage level, a government analys~ says. be promoted to tenure, and to achieve full decade, and which appear to be continuing. "Newly hired women have salaries closer professorships. From 1972 to 982, the _percentage ~f to men," Eugene Frankel of tb!tOffit~Qf: "The differential treatment of women in women who ~e1ved a science or engmeering Tec~lo.Jl.A~m~nt says. "The difference the work force most directly violates the baccalaureate mcreased from 28 P?rcent to in salaries widen as seniority increases. So, as principle of equality of opportunity because it 36 percent; those who got a masters degree women climb higher and higher in the affects people who have established, by virtue went from 18 percent to 28 percent; and corporate hierarchy, equal treatment drops of obtaining an advanced degree, the right to doctorates rose from 15 percent to 29 percent, away." pursue a scientific or en_gineerin, career., he .~ays. F k 1 oTA port lso says women are .. based solely on the quahty of theu-work. Befo~e. 1972, science and engmeenng was ran_ e s re a . -not a legitimate career for women," Frankel bet~g ~u~aged from seekmg science and It also has a significant d1SCOuragmJ says. "But changes in women's selfengmeenng Jobs because of ,ender-e~fec~ on female students in the ~ucabo~l perceptions were brought about by the stereotyped caret;r expectations and a smaller p1pelme, who see the future benefits of their women's movement and by the elimination of chance of promotion than men. investment in science and enfineering formal discrimination." The non-partisan analytical age~ was -education e~ed by potentia unempl~pnent He restates, however, that the dual factors asked by the House Committee on Science and and underutibzaUon in the work force. __ of salary discrimination and job promotion Technology's task force on science policy to Another crucial impediment to women's remain an inhibiting force in their careers. examine the long-term demographic trends on participation in science and engineering is the In a 1984 survey of college freshmen, the the scientific and engineering work force. feeling that those careers may be "men's OT A says 20 percent of the men questioned In the process, OTA was asked to consider work." listed engineering as their field of choice, the barriers to, and future trends in, "As long as women expect to assume the while only 3 percent of the women picked that participation of women and minorities in major role in housekeeping and childrean.ng, career objective. those occupations. and to sacrifice theirlrofessional interests to By contrast, the OTA says only 4 percent of "Women's salaries are signficantly lower those of their husban they will be less likely the men, but 21 percent of the women, listed than men's in almost all fields of science, in than men to select occupations like science education, nursing or occupational and physical therapy as their preferred major. Overall, OT A found that two significant demographic trends could affect the future supply of scientists ands engineers. There will be,a decline in the college-age population over the next decade. The number of 18-to 24-year-olds will drop from a peak of 30 million in 1982 to about 24 million in 1995. Labor market specialists estimate this decline could lead to a drop in college enrollments of 12 percent to 16 percent. Secondly, there will be an increase in the fraction of the 18-to 24-year-olds that will be drawn from minority populations, including blacks, Hispanics and Asian-Americans. These groups, with the exception of AsianAmericans, have historically participated less actively in science and enitfneering education than whites, the OT A says. "Some businesses are very supportive of getting more women in science and engineering because they see this decline in the college-age population and realize they will be drawing from a smaller pool," Frankel says. But Frankel says once those bright young women enter the field they still might have trouble moving up the ladder, if mind-sets remain the same.
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I I SCIENCE KAGAZIHE ~A!:iHINGTOH, DC WEEKLY lSoSOO MAA/01/l.986 Buq~ SciENCE Sources for New Scientists .\!ARCH r986 Vou:ME ,11 NUMBER++~ G ovemment reports can be hazardous to one's wakefulness. Manv seem to consist of mountains of glittering generalities, interrupted onlv bv murky and distamlv related statisocs. The recent Office of Technology Assessment report on scientific man power is an exception. It has real numbers that relate direetly co the words in the text. For those of us who heard warnings only a !cw vears ago that the l! nitcd States was overproducing scientists, the report causes instant alertness. The longtenn demographic trends descnbcd point to a shortage of scientists. The peak in the 18to 23-year-old age group of approximately 30 million occurred in 1982; there arc expected ro be 24 million in that age group in 1995. This could lead to a 12 to 16 percent decrease in college enrollment. The problem will be compounded it: as many believe. the future need for scientists becomes more acute. Since women and minoriocs ,re underrepre sented among practicing scientists, it would be both advantageous for those groups and prudent for the country tO consider wavs to increase not onlv the number of young people entering college but also the raoo of those choosing science as a career. Two model programs are addressing the need to expose disadvantaged vouths co careers in science. One is Project Seed. sponsored bv the ,\men can Chemical Soc1ecv, This program, admirably stripped of bureaucratic red cape. J!lows chemists around the country to receive approximately $750 for the hiring of a disad,antaged high school srudent for a JOweek laboratory job. More then 200 students took part in this prognm last year and that number is growing sceadilv as foundations and private donors provide additional funds. A National Science Foundation program in the division of biological sciences allows protcs sors to receive small grant supplements for the same purpose. This project, roo. requires a minimum of red cape: since the scientist is already accredited by having received an NSF grant. only a brief request containing minimal information is required for a stipend similar in size tO that of Project Seed. These programs should be expanded in other agencies and with other sources of funds. Government agencies could well follow the NSF formula; private groups could pattern programs on Project Seed. Let us scientists not wa,t, however, but lead the wav with good programs without red cape. The opportunity tO give disadvantaged students exposure to science in a thend.Jv environment can be elfective at an early and formative stage in their hes .\!" parricipation in a local disadvantaged youth program once resulted in the challenge of gy :\sscssmenc, "Demogt'3.phic trends in the sciencc-Uld engmcmng work t6rcc'' 10TA-TM-SET-35. Government Pnnong Office:. W .ishmgron, DC. December l 985).
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RADIO CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM 72 WORDS 6 CLIPS 75 EAST NORTHFIELD AVENUE I LIVINGSTON I NEW JERSEY 07039 (201) 992-6600 I (212) 227-5570 I (800) 631-1160 December 25, 1985 5:00-9:00 AM MT National Public Radio Morning Edition Carl Kasselle reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 6 2 9 7 Y A new congressional survey shows that female scientists and engineers are paid less then their male counterparts. Not only that, the survey shows they receive fewer promotions. The report, from the Office of Technology Assessment, concludes that sex discrimination and gender stereo typing are rampant on the job market. I'm Carl Kasselle, National Public Radio in Washington. Audio cassettes are available in any format from our affiliate VIDEO MONITORING SERVICES OF AMERICA. INC., for a per10d of four weeks from air date. Call 212
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THE W~..-iHiNGTON POST WASHINGTON, DC D. 728,857 SUN. 1.o:n.2rn I Fe,v Won1en Seeli Science Jobs Report Cites Discrimination, Stereotypes :. "\ :'.'1.--,,\ By ,Janet Staihar .h:,1}c.:1nt1!it Pn ,-., Women nre being discouraged from seeking science and t~ngineer ing jobs because oi di,;cnrnination in the work force aud ,-,tereoryped ca reer expectations, a congressional agency report said Tuesday. The Office of Technol()gy Assess ment' s survey said femnle scientist,; ;1r1d engineer,; generally receive lower salari.-s and have a smaller ,:ilance ui promotion than mtm. The nonpartisnn nnalytical agencv was asked bv the Huuse Committee on Science and Technology's rask force on ,;c1ence policy to ex amine long-term dPmogrnphic trends in the science-engineering field. In the proces,-,, OTA wa:; a:;ked to consider the barriers tn participation of women and minor ities in the field. "Women's salnrie:; are :--ig11ificmtly lower than men's in almost all fields oi :il:ience, in ewry em ployment :-,ector and at comparable kvels of experience," OT A said in its 1'15-pnge report. "In academia, men are far more likely than women to hold tenure track po:-;itions, to be promoted to tt.~nurc and to achieve full professor.-.hips," the report said. "The differential treatment of women in the work force most di rectly violates the principle ()f equality of opportunity because it affects people who have e:-;tab lished. by virtue of obtaining an ad vanced degree, the right to pursue a scientific or engineering career based solely on the quality of their work," said the report. "It also has a significant discour aging effect on fomale students in the educational pipeline, who s<::e the future benefits of their invest ment in science and engineering education eroded by potential unemplnyment and underutilization in the work force," it said. ,\nother impediment to women's participation is the feeling that those careers may be "men's work." "As long :is women expect to ns,,u n\\' the major role in housekeeping and childrearing and to s,\cniice tfwir professional interests to thm,e of their husband, they will be less likely than men to select 0ccupa tions like science nnd engineering that require major educational and labor force commitments,'' said the rt:port. In a 1984 survey of college freshllll)!l, the OTA said :w percent ot the men and only :3 percent of th<' wnmen listed engineering as their field ot choice. By contrast, the OT A said only 4 wrcent of the men, but 21 percent nf rhe women, listed education, nursing or occupational and physical therapy as their preferred major. Overall. OTA found that two sig nificrnt trends could affect the :,upply ot :-;cienti:;ts and engineen,. The number of 18to 24-ye,irnld,-, will drop from a peak of :w million in 1982 to about 24-million in l 9DS. Specialists estimate that this could reduce college enrollment:; hy 1~ pt'tTl.mt to 16 percent. Sernndly, a higher percentage ot the l~Ho 2!-year-olds will come trnm minority populations, includin).( hi.irks, Hi,;panic,; and Asia11-,\mtnca11,-,. Tlw,,e groups, with tile exception of 1\:-;ian American::;, have heen less .1ctive in sci<::nce and en,gmeering education th,m have white:-, ,;;1icl the OTA.
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SAN JOSE MERCURY-NEWS SAN JOSE, CA D. 246,226 SUN. 302,201 .JAN 2 4 19 8 6 BU1f..lf~ Not just nerds [EOITQRlAL] l'J.C;Ji s EVEN percent of U.S. college stu dents graduate as engineers and sci entists as opposed to 40 percent of German and Japanese college students. Is it any surprise that German and Japanese prod ucts are a little better engineered than Ameri can products?" asks Lester Thurow, professor of economics at MIT, in the most recent issue of the World Policy Journal. Assuring an adequate supply of engineering and scientific workers involves many prob lems, but perhaps the most fundamental is: Where will the engineering students come from? After all, children of the baby boom are getting past college age. Colleg~ enrollments may fall 15 percent in the next decade. And it's pretty hard to shift in mid-career from, say, teaching history to designing electrical circuits. A major part of the answer will have to involve an expanded vision of who engineers are. Consider the stereotypical engineering nerd: too-short pants, white socks, heavy rimmed glasses, greasy hair, showered last week, white and male. Changes in clothing and grooming are nego tiable, but the nation needs to train women, minority, and foreign students for its science and engineering work force, according to a technical memorandum recently released by the Office oL'techm~k,_gy Assessplent. Historically, women have received less than 5 percent of the bachelor's and master's degrees in engineering and the physical sciences. That figure climbed through the 1970s and early 1980s, and is now roughly 15 percent. That growth notwithstanding, the OT A con cludes, "Gender-stereotyped career expecta tions and differential treatment of women scientists in the work force are the two major factors discouraging women from entering science and engineering. "Women's attrition rates from science and engineering careers are 50 percent higher than men's and the unemployment rates are more than double," the OT A explains. "Women's salaries are significantly lower than men's in almost all fields of science, in every employment sector and at comparable levels of experience. "In academia men are far more likely than women to hold tenure-track positions, to be prom?ted to tenure and to achieve full profes sorships, even when academic age field and quality of graduate school attend~d are' con trolled for." Blacks, Hispanics, and American Indians get science and engineering degrees at less than half the rate of white students, and are paid less once they graduate. The main rea sons, according to the OT A, are greater pov erty, weaker families and other problems leading to weaker academic performance. Intensive catch-up programs have had some success in helping minorities into sci ence and engineering careers. Both the OT A and a report from the National Academy of ScienC:e last summer con~lude that although there 1S not yet enough evidence to rigorously evaluate these programs, they are promising enough to be pushed forward. Foreign students are taking greater advan~ge of AmE:rican educational opportunities; m many science or engineering graduate schools, they are a third or more of the students. But the OT A memorandum reflects a social ambivalence over this trend. The country needs engineers and scientists, but American engineers and scientists aren't wild about for eign competitors for jobs. A recent House Republican report on high t~, headed by Rep. Ed Zschau, R-Los Altos, tn~ to s~addle that line by saying that fore1~ e?gmeers were welcome, as long as they didn t take a job an American engineer was willing to take. That's cute, but evasive. We believe that if talented, trained workers want to help build America's high-tech future, the nation should be glad to have them. Silicon Valley firms pride themselves on their enlightened business and labor policies. There's some truth in that, but it's also true that the patterns of discrimination and expec tation that shut too many women, minorities and foreigners from participating in high-tech culture are visible here as well. For example, consider the predominantly white, male man agement of local companies. Just as new products start here, so can new attitudes. Greater breadth of participation in science and engineering means even more than upholding standards of equal opportu nity. America's future technological prowess and that of Silicon Valley may depend on it.
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sc:~ 1 WAS:-1!Nc-. D.C. I W. 15::. r~CJ .JAN 17 1936 6!lfS/!G.J.J..E~s _., OT A Optimistic About Scientific Work Force As the post-baby boom generation moves into the 18-to 24-year-old age group, col lege enrollments will drop by 12 to 16 percent by 1995. But, says the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) "it is entirely possible that the supply of people rrained in science and engineering will not decline at all." In an analysis ordered up by the House Task Force on Science Policy, Dmwgraphic Trends and the Scientific and Engineering Work Force, the OT A finds no cause for alarm in the coming contraction of the work force. It says "career choices and market forces have a greater impact on the supply of scientists and engineers than do demographic trends." The data show that "there appears to be no direct relationship between the number of Ph.D.'s in science and engi neering and the size of the graduate school age population." Thus, "a slight increase in the rate of selection of scientific and engi neering careers ... could more than com pensate for the decline" in enrollments. The 145-page "technical memorandum" goes on to emphasize, however, that the composition of the entering work force is changing-27 percent of college students will be minority members by 1998-and that it is especially important now to en courage minorities and women to study science. Blacks, Hispanics, and American Indians go to college at half the rate of whites, and those who select quantitative fields ( engi neering, mathematics, and computer sciences) do so at 1/2 to 3/4 the white rate. Social class and parents' educational levels are among the most powerful deterrents co progress for minorities, says the report. Although blacks and Hispanics in science and engineering earn lower salaries than do whites, "analysts consulted by the OTA did not report strong evidence" that discrimina tion by employers was a significant problem. The situation is somewhat different for women: "gender-stereotyped career expecta tions and differential treatment of women scientists in the work force are the two major factors discouraging women from en tering science and engineering." Women are still not particularly keen on engineering, for example, and enrollments have leYeled off after the surge of recent :"ears. This does nor seem to be a result of a conditioned aversion to quantification, howeYer, since women have obtained over 40 percent of bachelor's degrees in mathematics since 197 4. Although women have a 50 percent high er attrition rate than men, the report savs men are more likelv than women of compa rable experience to be promoted and hired NEWS & COMMENT 215
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I RESEARCH OE.l.iELOPMrn1 BARRINGTON, IL HONTHLY 118000 FEB/01./1.986 SCIENCE POLICY Work force changes on way for R&D \_,; : < As THE population of the U.S. undergoes demographic changes in the coming years, considerable alterations in the sci entific and engineering (S&E) work force can be expected. Of special concern is whether the supply of trained scientists and engineers will keep up with anticipated demand, given the numerical decline in the college age population during the next decade. According to a report prepared by the congressional Office __ qf T ~chnology Assessment (OTA), "'Demographic Trends a:rid the Scientific and Engineer ing Work Force," the OTA estimates that college enrollments will decline from 12 to 16% between now and 1995 as a result of the decline in the number of 18-to 24-year-olds in the population. But OT A also says, "It is entirely possible that the supply of people trained in science and engineering will not decline at all, despite the drop in the college-age population." It cites several reasons for this. First, the anticipated drop in college enrollment may not occur, since higher percentages of women and minorities are enrolling in higher education than pre viouslv has been the case. Second. there could be increases in the rate at which college students choose to major in S&E. A slight increase here "could more than compensate for the de cline in 18-to 24-year-olds projected for the 1982 to 1995 time frame." Third, workers in S&E can be ob tained from the existing talent pool of those with current S&E baccalaureates. Fewer than two thirds of such degree holders in recent years have become part of the S&E work force, the report notes. OT A is of the opinion that "there is no national market for scientists and engi neers as a group. Rather, there are specific markets for graduates trained in par ticular disciplines." These markets can and do experi ence very different conditions at the same time. For instance. the demand for elec trical and aeronautical engineers and for computer specialists has been growing in recent vears, while there have been sig nificantly fewer openings for biologist;, chemists, geologists, physicists. and chemical, civil, and mechanical engineers-leaving a surplus of degree hold ers in these fields. On this point OT A concludes that "career choices and market forces have a Demographic changes In the U.S. wlll af fect the science and engineering work force, but the gaps will be filled, says the Office of Technology Assessment. greater impact on the supply of scientists and engineers than do demographic trends," noting that undergraduate stu dents appear to be very responsive to po tential job opportunities after college. The OT A does predict, however, that the decline in student enrollments will lead to a weakening of the academic market for new PhDs in the coming dec ade. This can be expected to be followed by an upsurge in academic hiring between 1995 and 2010. The demand in industry for PhD sci entists and engineers should continue to remain strong through the next decade, the report states. This could draw, to industry, many of the PhDs who normally would seek positions in academia. But, if so, "by the year 2000 industry and academia could be in stiff competi tion for new science and engineering PhDs." With the coming shortages in college enrollment, OT A suggests that increased attention be paid to population groups, particularly women and minorities, which traditionally have had weak participation in S&E. "Gender-stereotyped career expec tations and differential treatment of women scientists in the work force are the two major factors discouraging women from entering science and engineering,'' according to the report (see accompany ing story). And among other minority groups, blacks, Hispanics, and American Indians have historically received degrees in quantitative fields at less than half the rate of whites. Much of this is due to so cioeconomic faetors and the quality of secondary education. "There is considerable evidence that well-designed intervention programs can assist these groups in obtaining access to science and engineering careers, .. OT A concludes. It further notes that the National Sci ence Foundation has been mandated by Congress to take a leadership role in this area. but has not done so to date. -Ted Agres = OTA confirms gender limits R&D careers DISCRIMINATION in the workplace and gender stereotyping in expectations for careers are discouraging women from seeking jobs in science and engineering, according to a report by the Office of Technology Assessment. This analysis emerged as part of an OT A examination of long-term demo graphic trends in science and engineering occupations (see accompanying story). "Women's salaries are significantly lower than men's in almost all fields of science, in every employment sector, and at comparable levels of experience," the report states (R&D May, p 100). "In aca demia, men are far more likely than women to hold tenure-track positions, to be promoted to tenure, and to achieve full professorships. "The differential treatment of wom en in the work force most-directly vio lates the principle of equality of opportu nity because it affects people who have established, by virtue of obtaining an advanced degree, the right to pursue a sci entific or engineering career based solely on the quality of their work," the report adds. This type of discrimination has a real effect on women's expectations, or lack thereof, for scientific careers. "It ... has a significant discouraging effect on female students in the educational pipeline who see the future benefits of their investment in science and engineer ing education eroded by potential unem ployment and underutilization in the work force," the report states. 0 RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT-FEBRUARY 1986 39
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affect scientist supply minimally Demograplc trends do not have so Science Policy of the House Com great an impact on the supply of mittee on Science & Technology. scientists and engineers as do indiThe committee wanted to better vidual career choices and market understand whether demographic forces, although some disciplines trends could be used to help antici could experience occasional shortpate changes in the requirements ages of experienced personnel. Rathfor education and training of scien er, the most serious effect of a detists and engineers. The task force dine in the college-age population also asked OT A to examine the efprojected for the next 10 years fects of the "growing interest on will be a marked weakening in the the part of women and minorities" demand for new college faculty in pursuing scientific careers and members in many, though not all, the "barriers to such participation fields. and the means for lowering them." These are two general findings OTA's 145-page report, "Demoof a report issued recently by Congraphic Trends and the Scientific gress' Qfficuf_}"e~h~?!OSI. Asse!sand Engineering Work Force/' is m.tm.t. It was prepared oy Ont at the response to these directives. In the request of the Task Force on the report, OTA notes that it did /"\ /'\
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find two significant demographic trends that could affect supply of scientists and engineers. One is a decline in the college-age popula tion in the next decade, with the number of 18to 24-year-olds dropping 22% from a peak of 30 million in 1982 to about 24 million in 1995. Second is an increase in the frac tion of the 18-to 24-year-olds coming from minority populations, including blacks, Asian-Americans, and Hispanics-groups that, with the exception of Asian-Americans, have participated less actively in sci ence and engineering education than whites. Among other findings by OTA related to demographics in general: Levels of graduate enrollment and Ph.D. production in science and engineering appear to be largely independent of general demographic trends. A combination of faculty and student demographics will lead to the weak academic market for new Ph.D.s over the next decade, fol lowed by an upsurge in academic hiring between 1995 and 2010. Long-term projections of supply and demand for scientists and engineers in the economy as a whole are inherently unreliable. Labor markets adjust to supplydemand gaps. The federal role in alleviating potential shortages of technical per sonnel appears limited to assistance for education and retraining. Addressing opportunities for women, OTA determined that gender-stereotyped career expectations and differential treatment of women scientists in the work force are the two major factors discouraging women from entering science and engineering. The gender stereotyping, OT A notes, is most dramatically mani fested in the major field preferences of college freshmen. For example, 20% of the men, but only 3% of the women, in a 1984 survey listed en gineering as their field of choice. By contrast, only 4% of the men, but 21 % of the women, listed edu cation, nursing, or occupational or physical therapy as their preferred major. Another aspect of gender-stereotyped career planning involves Ideas for Creative Chemists 0 0 If I] CH3 C NH CH2 C CH3 HOOC Qo AMIOOKETONES O N\ 1 1/ CHj \._ CH2COOH I yv PYRROUOONES~ H2NCH2COOH ~XAZOLONES 6 PYRROLIOINE DIONES N-METHYLENE AMICO GLYCINES Start your next new product with HAMPSHIRE~ Glycine. Pharmaceutlcals Hert>icides Polymers Chemical Intermediates Cosmetics Dl8CCMI' a wortd of Amino Acid Chemistry. Write tor our Idea packed, 28-page brochure. GRACE Organic Chemieals Division, WA. Grace & Co. 55 Hayden Avenue, Lexington, MA 02173 (617) 861-6600 CIRCLE 40 ON READER seRVICE CARO The Primary Source: Spectrometric Standard Solutions SRMMecats 2121 CadmiUm, Ll!!ad, Silver, and Zinc 2126 Anamony. Arsenic. Sl!!lfflium. and Tin 2122 Banum. Calcium. Magnesium. and Strontium 2123 Li!hiUm. PorassiUm. Sodium. and Ru0idiUm 2124 Cooalt. Copper. Iron. and Niekl!!I 2127 Aluminum. Be,yllium. PhosphOrus. and Silicon 2128 Gold. Ml!l'CU,Y, Palladium. and Platinum 2129 Titanium. Tungsten. VanadiUm. and 2irconiUm 2125 Boron. Chromrum. Mangalll!!SI!!. and Molybdenum Tefl!!phonl!!: (3011921-2045 Office of Standard Reference Materials Room B-311. Chffl!lstry Building Natrona! Burl!!au of StandardS Garthl!l'S0urg. MO 20899 CIRCLE <42 ON AEAOER seRVICE CARO Jenl.-y 13, 1988 C&EN 31 .. _,
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\ / .3~=--------------------Sc/ence young women's expectations of how they will be able to allocate their time during adulthood between participation in the labor force and work in the home. One study, for example, finds that the more the young women expect continuous labor force participation during adult hood, the more their occupational goals approximate those of their male counterparts. Women's experience in the sci ence and engineering work force also is decidedly different from that of men, the OT A report points out. Women's attrition rates are higher, their unemployment rates significantly higher, and their salaries significantly lower than men'salthough, the report notes, recent female entrants to the science and engineering work force are doing considerably better than their more senior counterparts. On minorities, OTA points out that blacks, Hispanics, and Ameri can Indians are affected by a. vari-L I\. ety of socioeconomic factors that lead to poor academic performance and an inability to remain in the science and engineering eduational pipeline. It notes, however, that despite those factors, there is consid erable anecdotal evidence that well designed intervention programs can assist these groups in obtaining access to science. and engineering careers. OTA concludes that despite the various problems, women's partici pation in science and engineering has increased dramatically in all fields and at all levels. There appear to be no inherent reasons, it says, why these increases should not continue. However, according to OTA, for blacks and Hispanics the causes of low participation are so deeply entwined with larger social and cultural factors that the prospects for further improvement without dramatic societal intervention do not appear very bright. Already, it notes, the rate of increase in par- Glycine Ethyl Ester HCI ETHYL GLYCINATE HCI ETHYL AMINO ACETATE HCI Use: Intermediate For Tranquilizers IIIIS'lln __ ...,,,, Austin Chemical Company, Inc. 8410West Bryn Mawr Ave .. Chicago. IL 60631 (!11~\ '.IQQ..MQft TS:I IIIY '>lln'!lA'> ticipation among these groups has slowed significantly since the dra matic improvements of the mid-1970s. The OTA report is available from the U.S. Government Printing Of fice, Superintendent of Documents, Washington, D.C. 20402, fo:3$6.00. The GPO stock number is 052-00301014-3. C ACS to latDlch new energy, fuels journal The American Chemical Society plans to launch a new journal covering the area of energy and fuels research. Initially the journal-as yet unnamed-will be publishedevery other month beginning in January 1987. "Our notion is to try to create a core journal in the fuel and energy area," explains John W. Larsen, professor of chemistry at Lehigh Uni versity, and editor of the new jour nal. Larsen also has a part-time appointment doing fuel chemistry research at Exxon Research &: Engineering's corporate research labo ratories in Clinton, N.J. The new journal will publish re search papers and possibly short re views in a broad range of areas re lating to fuel and energy research, Larsen explains. Areas that he ex pects it to cover include petroleum research, coal chemistry, tar sands, C1 chemistry, and methane research. The journal, Larsen explains, is not intended to replace specialized journals that already are providing a forum for research findings in particular aspects of this field. Rath er, he says, "Anyone who is engaged in work in fuels science or fuel chemistry should be able to track the research frontier of the whole field in this one journal." The strengths of the new journal, as Larsen sees them, will be several. One will be its breadth. Another will be its affiliation with ACS, which likely assures that it will be well-reviewed and -edited and able to publish research findings rela tively rapidly. A third will be what is expected to be a low subscription . .. .. ..
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Energy Technology Transfer to China Will Benefit the U.S. China's need for foreign energy technologies ls illustrated by the fact that, in spite of abundant energy resources, the country is experiencing electricity shortages so severe that at times 20 to 30% of its industrial capacity remains idle. Imports of foreign technology could provide the avenue to accomplish what would take many more years if China had to go it alone. U.S. firms have been leaders in developing most technol. ogles that China needs, though other countries can also supply them. Technology acquisition has been a central feature of China's energy pro grams for many years, but until 1980, direct sales of equipment and even en tire factories were far more important than technology transfer. The Chinese petroleum industry has decided It is le costly and more effective In the long run to procure technology directly. Petrol .. m exploration, production The offshore oil exploration projects have stimulated petroleum technology transfers, including training, Joint technical services, and joint manage ment. Many ofthe smaller U.S. oilfield service companies are now participat ing. Contracts for licensing to manu facture equipment have been rare for offshore technology production, largely because the market is limited (only 19 rigs were active in 1984, and this number will not grow In the next year or two). The situation Is reversed onshore, where foreign participation has been limited to specialized services and equipment supply. Onshore activity Is much greater, with about 800 to 900 active rigs. All of China's production has been onshore. Ucensing arrangements have been more attractive than for offshore technology, especially as a way of gaining access to the market. The prime example is the drill bit fac tory established under a licensing contract by the Hughes Tool Co. Hughes was paid a fee for the transfer and still receives royalties for the production. In addition, It Is allowed to sell large quantities of U.S.-made drill bits In China because far more are needed than the factory can supply (although some appear to have been exported). The total commercial value of tech nology transfer and training programs in the 1980-85 period Is estimated to be $100 to $125 million. While this may appear small compared to the Sl billion spent by foreign companies for exploration offshore, or the $250 mil lion imports of equipment and services for the onshore market in 1984 alone, the technology transfer component has major long-term Implications. Furthermore, contracts signed but not yet Implemented are not included, and there are many contracts being negoti ated, a long-term process itself. Estimated values for the next 5 years are $500 to S900 million, as shown In Table 2. Key items are likely to be: advanced geophysical technology such as seismic equipment and computer hardware and software: manufacturing technology for land drilling rigs, downhole completion equipment, and pressure control equipment; steam Injection and enhanced recov ery technology; and Instrumentation. U.S. companies will be In a strong position to compete for this business (which may diminish in the 1990s as the Chinese Increasingly master the technologies). Petroleum refining, pctrochemlc.ala China Is a net exporter of refined pe troleum products, including S300 mil lion of gasoline to the United States In 1984. (This may drop to zero next year because the phasing out of lead in U.S. gasoline makes the low octane Chinese gasoline useless even for blending. The Chinese are likely to re sent the loss of a major market.) The need to earn additional foreign ex change (which is crucial to the purchase of more foreign technology to continue the modernization program) is a strong motivation for accelerated technology acquisition to improve re fineries. Import substitution Is the motivation in the case of petrochemi cals and fertilizer. China spends about e-,c.,i from Enagy Tllnolos,, Tra...,_. to Clllna. A Tllnlca/ Memorandum, con....-i Of8ce olTechnoloa, s.i.-11n 1985. $2 billion annually In foreign exchange on these Items. Ucenses for chemical processes are now increasing because SINOPEC, the corporation with control over China's refineries and related facili ties, is engaged In a $3 billion refinery modernization program. If production of offshore oil starts, construction of coastal refineries is likely, possibly un der joint management or even as joint ventures. The worldwide glut of refin ing capacity argues against any near term construction of much additional capa<;ity, however. Ucense agree ments have been signed for the manu facture of various pieces of equipment for chemical plants, but the combined value of the licenses Is probably only about S5 million. Specific technologies of. interest include: secondary refining technology, such as hydrocrackers; process licenses for specialized pe troleum products, pesticides and agricultural chemicals, and synthe tic materials such as elastomers; and engineering and construction tech nology for plant design and pipe lines. U.S. companies have a long record of involvement in this area of the Chi nese market. They are likely to make significant sales, perhaps $50 to S100 million over the next 5 years, not in cluding sales of equipment. Coal mining, tranportation China produces almost as much coal as the U.S., but its coal mining technology continues to lag. U.S. companies are becoming involved In every level of the Chinese coal industry including large mine development, engineering contracts for mines and transportation, and licenses for mining and beneftciation equipment. U.S. technology transfer for coal de velopment has generally lagged be 21
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hJnd that for oil. despite the consider ably greater importance of coal In China's energy system. This is because coal exports create relatively small for eign exchange earnings ( $500 million In 1984, or 10% of the earnings from oil exports) and because coal technol ogy is not as esoteric. Another reason for delays in coal technology transfer Is that the mines that will be opened by U.S. companies are the subject of pro tracted negotiations, as ls much of the foreign Investment in China. Meeting the goal of 1.2 billion tons of coal by 2000 will require an expan sion of capacity of about 50% or about 30 million tons per year. On the aver age, at least one very large mine, sev eral medium-sized ones and a lot of small local mines must be added each year, as well as a vast infrastructure of beneftcfation plants. transportation systems and port facilities. Technolo gies that are already being imported or discussed include: engineering for large open-pit mines; slurry pipelines and unit trains: mine safety technology; manufacturing licenses for equip ment; and beneftciation technology. U.S. companies have an edge on surface mining and sh9rt wall under ground mining equipment and beneft elation plants. Most long wall mining equipment is still made In Europe. To tal value of technology transfer from the U.S. over the next 5 years may be SSO to $100 million. Electric powr U.S. technology transfer In the elec tric sector has been concentrated In a few large contracts for modem gener ator and boiler technology. These licensing contracts are Intended to Im prove the efficiency and Increase the size (from 250 to dS much as 600 MW) of China's standard generating plant. China has also begun importing elec-22 hie transmission technology from U.S. firms, and this Is likely to in crease as the voltage of the lines In creases. Important technologies are likely to Include: boiler retrofits and other thermal efOciency technology; design and engineering technology for large powerplants and particu larly for hydropower stations ( and also tidal powerplants); high-voltage transmission and switchgear and control systems: and pollution control equipment. U.S. companies will be competitive In these markets. Total value could be $100 to $200 million from 1986 to 1990. Nuclear power technology is also a possibility. Coaervatioa Technologies to improve the efficiency of energy use can be sold In their own right or as part of a larger package, such as a steel mill, a power plant, or an oil refinery. The largest gain in efficiency comes when a com pletely new plant Is built, Incorporating the best of modem technology. This Is also a very capital-Intensive approach which normally cannot be Justified simply on the grounds of energy efficiency. As demand for production in creases, however, new manufacturing facilities will be required, and effi ciency will improve, but most gains In the near-term will come from retrofits. China's program to increase effi ciency has had considerable success, but after the easy housekeeping meas ures (simple Insulation, adjusting com bustion conditions, cleaning steam traps, etc.), Identifying opportunities and Implementing solutions becomes much more difficult and costly. This next stage of energy conservation may provide many opportunities for the sale of equipment and the transfer of technologies. Some of the technolo gies are: monitoring equipment; air pn!heaters and heat recuperators: process controls; cogeneration equipment; high efficiency motors and pumps; energy management techniques and systems, Including Instrumentation and control equipment; energy auditing techniques and anal ysis; and high efficiency lighting. No estimate Is available for the po tential value of such technology trans fer because It covers such a wide range. and each sale might be rela tively small. In some cases no single company has enough vested Interest In the technology to warrant marketing it in China, or there is no clear custom er. In many of the Industrial applica tions, however, U.S. companies would be competitive. Solar pbotovoltala The only solar technology that is likely to be at all significant Is photo voltaics. At least one U.S. company is discussing the possibility of setting up a manufacturing plant in China. Other solar technologies are either not com petitive or are already being Imple mented In China (e.g., Oat-plate col lectors). The technology that has been developed in the U.S. over the past 10 to 15 years would probably be helpful, but It is not clear if it will be economi cal for Industry to provide It to China. This may suggest a greater role for the Department of Energy. China Is also exploring the possibility of tapping its geothermal resources. This could be a significant area in the future, since the U.S. has done considerable R&D as well as limited exploitation. Probl with tchnol0911 traaafu China's ability to choose technolo gies wisely, assimilate them, and dlf. 6e'11J' Winter ... / 1986
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, fuse them are questions which have concerned students of technology transfer to China. Fl-c. China's energy sector remains severely under-<:apttaHzed In spite of the fact that it receives 45 % of industrial Investment. This affects China's ability to solve the technologi cal needs of Its energy sector through technology transfer. While the energy industry Is a foreign exchange earner, reportedly only 10% of the foreign ex change it generates is reallocated to the energy sector for its foreign pro curement uses. Thus, financing is an important constraint on energy devel opment, but it is one with a differential impact. Chinese investment decisions favor foreign exchange earners, and exportable energy sources oil and coal also have attracted private funds from abroad. Financing is a greater constraint in the electric and hydropower areas, where the Chinese have sought and are receiving conces sionary loans from abroad. llfanpoaoer. In contrast to many de veloping countries, China has an es tabbshed energy industry, and an ex tensive R&D network. Thus, in the en ergy area, all sectors have research, design, and educational Institutes which typically have more than 25 years of experience. Ironically, the existence of an estab lished energy supply industry and R&D system at times works against technology transfer. The domestic Industry has a vested interest In domes tic supply, and thus China is faced with .. make or buy" questions which would not trouble other developing countries. In addition, China's domes tic industry has had trouble converting the results of its research Into serially produced new products. Moreover, there has been a resistance to Innova tion on the part of Chinese managers. These problems, and the more general relative technological backwardness of the domestic Industry. provide op portunities for the foreign suppliers of technology at the present time. It Is likely, however, that effective Interna tional techmology transfers will also stimulate the domestic industry to Im prove Its capacity for indigenous inno vation. Decflonlrlng. China's economic system has over the years p Mat c:oal 0rooucin9 r9010ft1 )( Mator nydroatectnc pra~ta Ml,fOtCtlid Soun:e: Ofllce ofTechllOlogy ~ment structured Incentives in such a way that decisionmakers are often risk averse. Individuals have been unwill ing to make decisions without collec tive consensus. The resulting delays in decisions are costly to foreign compa nies who face high daily expenses to maintain representatives in China. The current economic reforms promise some Improvement in declsionmaking, however. Proposed nuclear cooperation agreement China has a strong interest in devel oping nuclear power to supplement its coal and hydroelectric resources. Overall, nuclear power is an energy option at least as reasonable for China as it is for many nations that already have reactors. However, some of the causes of the worldwide slowdown in the growth rate of nuclear power may affect China's plans. Plans have been announced to build a total of 10,000 megawatts (MW) of nuclear power in China by 2000, a goal that Is ambitious but not impos sible. Currently, China has 81,000 MW of generation capacity from all sources. To meet expected demand, this capacity will have to Increase to 250,000 MW by 2000. The addition of 169,000 MW in 15 years, however, would be a substantial achievement. This tripling of supply would match ex pected economic growth. Since most developing countries have experienced electrical growth considerably higher than economic grc,wth (as was the case in the U.S. prior to 1973), a con siderable Increase in the efficiency of use is implied in the projections. The only firm commitments for nu-clear plants at present are for a 300 MW plant under construction near Shanghai (the 728 project), and for an imported plant in Guangdong. The former, growing out of China's naval pro pulsion program and analyses of foreign units of similar size, will be pro duced largely indigenously. The first large plant is to be built at Daya Bay In Guangdong province near Hong Kong using two 900 to 1,000 MWe units. Most of the power would be sold to Hong Kong, and the plants would be ft. nanced largely by foreign investors. It was expected that the nuclear compo nents for the plant would be supplied by France (with the generators coming from the United Kingdom). However, despite protracted negotiations and re ported near agreement, no contract has been signed, and recently, China solicited competing bids from West Germany. It is not yet clear if tnis indi cates a major problem with the French bid or is a tactic to wring more conces sions. Sites have been chosen for two follow-on projects In Jiangsu and Uao ning provinces. Proposals for the former are being considered. Again, the French and the Germans are expected to be the main competitors. Japanese firms are also anxious to participate, and free to bid on projects since the two countries signed an agreement on nuclear cooperation in August 1985. U.S. companies cannot compete un less a nuclear cooperation agreement is in force. China's dual approach of developing indigenous capabilities and importing foreign equipment and technology Is intended to minimize the time needed to master nuclear power technology by incorporating the best available on the world market, while ensuring that the program does not get too dependent on fornign sources. China could develop reactor technology on Its own if it had to, but that approach would take con siderably longer and cost considerably more before reaching the present level of western nuclear technology. 0 23
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rd Iear--Letter No. 2197 March 1,, 1986 ----~ Grassroots Preservationists: Individuals and private citizens are a vital part of U.S. efforts to maintain the biological diversity of plants, animals and habitats, says the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA). These efforts -basic to breeding programs that improve crops and livestock -sometimes complement government activities, at other times do what national, state or local government can't or won't do. OTA's report highlights examples of these grassroots efforts in a report available from the U.S. Government Printing Office (GPO), Superintendent of Documents, Washington, DC 20402, telephone 202/ 783-3238. Ask for GPO stock number 052-003-01019--.
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-----------------------------------------------------, PROBING THE NEWS WHAT'S THE BEST WAY TO FUND SEMICONDUCTOR R&D? REPORT CITES PROBLEMS IN BOTH CORPORATE AND FEDERAL SUPPORT WASHINGTON The long-running debate on how best t:o maintain funding of semiconduct.or research and development at a time when profit margins are under growing pressure has a new voice and a new controversy. It comes from a recent report from the U.S. Office of Technol ogy Assessment. The OTA report is causing controver sy because it says that although R&D is the lifeblood of the industry, reduced profits of U.S. companies, caused by the business downturn and by height ened Japanese competition, "may be leading t:o decreased efforts by indus try." And it gives mounting evidence that Japanese basic research is outpac ing U. S. efforts in such areas as optoe lectronics. At the same time, money from the prime alternate source, the Defense Department, is becoming tainted by an inclination t:o narrowly direct research toward the Strategic Defense Initiative. This tilt also raises the possibili ty that commercial application will be hindered by strict secrecy rules. In discussing current R&D activity, including the most promising technol ogies, the report, written by OT A ana lyst Arati P:rabhaker, raises specific concerns about the impact of centralizing Pentagon R&D support for microelectronics-by far the largest segment of direct federal funding-in agencies such as the Strategic Defense Initiative Orga nization. As the administrative office for the Reagan administration's "Star Wars" program, it hands out the SDI funds. The report supports current multisource funding through various agencies and the National Science Foun dation, among others. C0-0P OR NOT. The issue is boiling over at a time when the industry itself is trying t:o decide whether it would be helped more if the government would simply create the business conditions that would let companies work on their own R&D, or, as growing numbers believe, it should follow a trend that is inevitably leading toward cooperative R&D including the government. Such R&D cooperatives as the Semiconductor Research Corp., with government agen cies as members [Electronics, March 17, Electronics/ March 31 1 986 by George Leopold 1986, p. 52), are becoming more attractive. Thus the debate is over direct govern ment aid or cooperative research on one hand, versus private funding on the other. The increasingly restricted Pentagon-sponsored R&D mentioned by the report is a primary reason for the indus try's reluctance t:o support further direct federal involvement. Government is geared overwhelmingly toward defense, with little consider ation given to commercial needs, says Geoffrey A. Feiss, manager of govern ment affairs for the American Electronics Association. Shifting R&D programs to SDI, the report warns, could result in a "major restructur ing" of funding for microelectronics R&D from various Pentagon agencies. "Given AUTHOR. Analyst Arati Prabhakar wrote the OTA report the wide perception that the current arrangement for DOD-sponsored research-with several different agencies operating independently but communicating with each other-works well, centralized funding of microelec tronics R&D through the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization could decrease the DOD's effectiveness in the field." The transfer of gallium arsenide pilot lines from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency t:o the SDI operation is early evidence of this shift, the OT A says. Amplifying on that theme, Arvid G. Larson, chairman of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers' Defense R&D Committee, warns, "I'm afraid we are destroying our seed corn" with SDI. SDI research will be geared toward developing advanced technology for a specific program, Larson explains, rather than on the basic research that must be nurtured so that technology spreads throughout the society. Moreover, commercial applications of research may be hindered by strict clas sification requirements. Although the current system of multiple funding sources may be awkward, Larson says it may be better suited to an era of constrained federal funding. What's really raising the hackles of industry, however, is a basic question raised by the OTA report on whether private industry has the continuing ability to fund chip R&D. The document, which was reviewed by 34 top il).dustry, academic, and government officials involved in electronics R&D, savs that the industry's current problems with Japa nese competition poses a paradox. "Without continued strength in R&D, solutions to the near-term problems will only delay the dedine of"the U.S. companies." the OTA states. "Yet microelectronics firms that are struggling to survive are likely to neglect R&D activity in the face of more immediate and press ing problems." That is what's causing the fuss. Al though most observers agree with one official's assessment that semiconductor R&D remains the "lifeblood of the in dustry,'' they differ on whether the gov ernment should increase direct R&D funding or instead ease the financial burden and lower the risks of private research and development. And several industry trade groups even dispute the notion that private 55
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R&D funding is on the decline. For ex'ilmple, the AEA's Feiss maintains that the electronics industry remains ex tremely research-oriented, generally spending twice as much on R&D as other U.-S. industries. "What we need is a lower cost of capital," along with an extension of the R&D tax credit, according to Feiss. Supporting that view, Daryl G. Hatano, government affairs manager for the Semiconductor Industry Association, estimates that the semiconductor indus try currently spends about lOo/o of annu al sales on R&D. In 1984, the last full year for which figures are available, that came to $1.4 billion. Hatano adds that if U.S. trade officials could pave the way so that domestic chip makers could win a 30% share of the Japanese chip market, it would add $2 billion to their sales and mean that the industry could spend as much as $200 million more a year on R&D. CAUID INfllT.UU. But other industry officials say that the trend toward cooperative R&D-which will likely include federal support-is inevitable. "More and more, the industry is coming t.o that conclusion," says Bill Reed, executive di rect.or of the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Institute (SEMI). Reed 33.ys that although he is wary of direct government participation in cooperative research efforts, such cooperation is "a path to survival." SEMI represents about 1,100 electron ics companies, 92% of which have annu al sales of less than $10 million. Reed says the institute has attempted to pool the R&D resources of these smaller companies by joining the Semiconductor Research Corp., an industry R&D consortium based in Research Triangle Park, N. C. SRC funds university research and is currently seeking gov ernment members. Robert M. Burger, SRC's vice president for research, maintains that the current problems of the U.S. chip industry are far too big for individual companies t.o solve on their own. "We must merge these individual contri butions," he asserts. Burger doesn't agree with the argument made by critics of further federal involve ment that R&D results will meet commercial needs and be made available to industry only if the commercial sector carries out the work itself. He stresses that "the re search that we support even tually becomes available to everyone," while product technologies that drive the in-56 dustry would remain proprietary. Cooperative R&O is a growing trend, agrees Donald J. Silversmith, director of the National Science Foundation's SolidState and Microstructures Engineering program. The NSF is the pivotal group in SRC's plan to admit federal agencies to its fold, and Silversmith, who re viewed the early stages of the OTA re port, represents several government agencies in discussions aim~d at bring ing them into SRC for the first time. In assessing the report, Silversmith and others note that Japan, through its Ministry of International Trade and In dustry, has been better able t.o coordi nate Japanese R&D in such areas as op toelectronics. Coordinated R&D efforts, he says, "can produce more bang for the buck." Coordinated R&D 'can produce more bang for the buck' Meanwhile, at least one member of Congress, Rep. George E. Brown (D., Calif.), a member of the Technology Assessment Board that oversees the OTA, echoes the report's worries about Penta gon R&D centralization, adding that he is "very much concerned" about the growing role of the Pentagon in areas such as R&D and the space program. Although Brown favors consolidating many government R&D activities into one agency (see "Wanted: a single agen cy to fix R&D policy," below), he says SDI work won't have much commercial benefit. ''That's a flaw in the centraliza tion scheme," he says. N everthelesa, he thinks government and industry are beginning t.o lay the groundwork for a consensus on issues such as cooperative R&D. "We're creep ing up on it very slowly,'' he says. The OTA report also identifies techno logical trends in R&D and notes that efforts to push chip densities with improved fabrication technology, for instance, will require more basic R&D activities. "This technological factor may "drive expanded federal participation in R&D for potential alternative microelec tronics technologies," the report says. Although gallium arsenide and other compound semiconductors are identified as possible alternatives, the OTA report says that virtually no experts believe they will overtake silicon technology for most applications. One area of GaAs research singled out as particularly promising, however, is the growth of super lattices, alternating layers of two different compound materials [Electronics, March 3, 1986, p. 20). Current research is focusing on de signing better systems for growing these layers, such as molecular-beam epitaxy and metal-organic chemical-vapor deposition. Devices based on su perlattice and other quantum-effect structures include IIIV and II-VI pho todetectors, lasers, and transistors. The superlattice work is "one of the most exciting areas of research to day," the OTA states. The NSF's Silversmith says the lack of a coordinated U.S. effort stems from the absence of an overall industrial policy. Referring t.o the OTA report, he adds, "We've had enough studies about what the problem is." What is needed now is "a manifesto for action." D Electronk:a/March 31, 1986 I l l
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:::p ':\,''. '~ \iA. '1'. -rJ 1 :: SE--~, \1:~.~ .15 ,'1 ; ~: ;., C "I Study:dialysis equipment being used against recommendations 1 r~ l~ .,_2 t:;J '~ By JAMES ROWLEY that formaldehyde can cause the remove toxins, salt and water. Associated Press formation of antibodies in the blood The report found that clinics WASHINGTON Thousands of kidney patients undergo dialysis treatment with equipment that is reused despite manufacturers' recommendations that it be discarded after one treatment, a Senate staff report says. Many kidney dialysis clinics use a solution of water and the cancer causing chemical formaldehyde to disinfect plastic dialyzer blood filters and blood lines to allow their reuse as many as 20, or 30 times, said the report by the staff of the Senate Special Committee on Aging. "Tens of thousands of dialysis patients may be exposed to dangerous and unnecessary risks in the multiple reuse of disposable dialysis devices," said the report, which was, prepared for the committee's hearing today on the problem. The staff report said patients are not warned of the risks of infection or exposure to formaldehyde and "often are intimidated and coerced into reusing their disposable dialysis devices." The report found that "formaldehyde residue is trapped that may encourage rejection of a have a financial incentive to reuse kidney transplant." the dialysis parts, which cost about The report also cited allergic $13 for the filter and the blood reactions and reproductive and tubes. ;;Reprocessing of these two nervous disorders as results of disposables saves about half to oneexposure to the chemical. third the cost of buying new ones Reuse of the dialyzer parts also each tim~ they are reused,' the threatens to infect patients with report said. .. deadly bacteria that can form in The congressional Qffic.e._of water used to flush the equipment. TechnglCl~.Asse.ment con.eluded Between June 1982 and June 1983, last_ year that reuse of_ dialyzer 14 patients at a kidney dialysis eqwpment may re~ult m excess center in Louisiana died after they pr?fits of $80 million, the study were infected with mycobacteria. said. The report quoted a Centers for The report said the Dep~rtment Disease Control finding that "one of_Health and Human Serv1ces has factor common to all the patients failed to produce a study of the was exposure to reprocessed problem as ma!l~ated by Congress d'alyzers m 1979. In addition, the Food and 1 Drug Administration "has failed to As a result of the investigation, provide standards or guidelines for CDC recommended that a 4 reuse of disposable dialysis percent instead of a 2 percent devices." formaldehyde solution be used to disinfect reused dialysis equipment, the report said. Last year, Medicare paid $1.5 billion for 80 percent of the dialysis treatments given to the nation's 78,000 kidney patients. The patients usually undergo three four-hour treatments each week during which their blood is cleansed to It recommended that FDA adopt uniform standards and that HHS issue regulations requiring that dialysis clinics give patients written notice about the possible dangers of reused equipment. Patients should be guaranteed a freedom of choice and informed consent to the use, the report said. in the devices after reprocessing I and leaches out into the blood of dialysis patients." "Formaldehyde is known to cause cancer, liver damage and destruction of red blood cells." the report said. "Research has shown
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l'\0.1.ll'IU I urt, VI'\ w. 2,100 l.!OA-1-O!)TI-OCf< IDEC 23 lq85 BU1ffE1.l.-'S OTA sees prime farrmand prob4ems ~-:;...1-dweak" is how the Office of Technology Assessment describes the coal industry's ability to restore prime farmlands to their pre-mining conditions. OT A notes the industry's problem in proving it is technologically able to restore fully prime farmlands doesn't translate. into an expectation of widespread reclamation failure. But it does translate ''into an uncomfortable level of uncertainty about the likelihood of success." OT A made its observations in a staff memorandum prepared for members of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, pointing out that certain counties in Illinois and in other Midwestern states could suffer serious damage to their agricultural economic bases if surface mining development were intensive and if reclamation of prime farmland fell well short of the federal surface mining law. Eight years after the passage of the federal surface mining law, the state-of-the-art in farmland reclamation has advanced, OT A observed, but the industry still has trouble meeting the stringent SMCRA standards. In particular, the industry cannot predict how much damage variations in reclamation design do to long-term productivity. It has problems reconciling the large amount of soil needed to replace individual horizons and the need to avoid the excess compaction that soil handling can cause. Only through continued research can more progress be made in reclaiming farmland, OT A notes, but points out that the federal government has cut back radically on money for cropland research. The Office of Surface Mining, OT A says, is "seriously handicapped" by gaps in knowledge about cropland restoration since it is responsible for setting the regulatory standards the industry must follow. But OT A suggested that tests of compaction and other key soil characteristics should accompany yield tests to determine long-term productivity on prime farmlands. W.Va. panel OKs Panther route The West Virginia Reclamation Board of Review has upheld a mining permit issued to a McDowell County company that plans to haul coal through 800-acre Panther State Forest. The permit for New Windward Coal Co. of !eager, W. Va., to develop a 6.4-acre underground mine near the forest was challenged by the West Virginia Highlands Conservancy because up to 600 tons/day of coal might be hauled 10-15 miles, including four to five miles through the forest, to a prep plant. Attorney John Mcferrin said the conservancy argued that the forest is, in effect, a public park used mostly for recreation. He said the forest's largest picnic area is about 3,800 feet from the mine site. State law forbids mining or coal movement through state parks. But a state official pointed out that coal movements through state forests are legal. Mcferrin said the conservancy's board will probably decide at its January meeting whether to to appeal the reclamation board's action. FER MIVll:rilliAN MINING CONGRESS JOURNAL WASHINGTON, DC i. 0, W!l:sK OTA issues farmland reclamation study &-~ ,. -~ Only l percent of prime farmland overlies economically recoverable surface minable coal. according to a recent Qffice of Tec!J~?l?gy ~n_t(OTA) study. The report, -Reclaiming Prime Farmlands and Other High-Quality Croplands after Surface Coal '.\lining." evaluates the current status of prime farmland reclamation to determine whether the objectives oftht Surface \lining Control and Reclamation _.\ct (SMCRA) are being met It also notes that when SMCRA wa.s approwd. industiygenerallydidnr know how to restore prime farmland to its pn:' mining capability. Industry had dem onstrated ( via test plots) that careful reclamation can restore land to a productive agricultural use. On most prime lands, OTA said ..indust1ycannot be sure that it will he able to meet the demanding full res toration standard." OTA recommend ed the following: incr1:a.se research funding: u.se ongoing reclamation l't~ forts as a S( >Lll'C(' ( ,r informati< ,n: ('< n sider alternatin bonding mechanLsms and 1wnalties where prime farmland reclamation is invo[w,d: and \'ig(11'!lU.S congressional o\ ersight. Copies of the OTA rPport ma,\ h\ obtained by calling Stew Plotkin ()r OTA. :20:2 :2:2t-;-:2110. (A.\IC contcl\'t Greg Conrad. :20:2 l':lli l -:28(58. )
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TV CLIPS 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD : UVJNGSTON : NEW JERSEY 07039 /201) 992-6600 '(800) 631-1160 January 26, 1986 11 :00 AM-12:30 PM Lifetime ACCOUNT NUMBER NIELSEN AUDIENCE 10/6297 Y N/A DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM Physician's Journal Update/ AMA Medicine Today Kim Marriner. co-host: Disease and lost productivity due to smoking cost the United States sixty-five billion dollars a year. That's according to a recent study by the Congressio-nal Office on Technology Assessment. Although the government's own studies document the high cost of smoking, the government continues to support the tobacco industry. The AMA challenges the support and is urging the government to discontinue federal support of tobacco production. For more, here's Dr. Larry Grouse in our Washington, D.C., studio. (Grouse and his guests, Alan Nelson, who is vice chairman of the AMA Board of Trustees and Reginald Lester, who is the managing director of Tobacco Growers Information Committee in Raleigh, North Carolina, discuss tobacco price supports and smoking and health.) NORRISTOWNt PA 1"1MES HERALD 0. 30,762 s F~!J.~86 I Doctors Urge lnsJrance~Mf)an,i~sj To Offer Discounts to Non7S1110Kers-s~q fit.AN CISCO (UPI) ment, :smoking' costs. the ,~ti~~ One of the nation's largest doc-about $65 billion a year in ~alth tors' organizations has urged care and lost productivity,,,Av-_ insurance companies and group ery wrote. That figure is health plans to off er premium eight percent of the total spent discounts and other benefits to on treating illness. ; non-smokers because smoking ."For male heavy smokers increases health-care costs. under the age of 45, Ufetime The 34,000-member California benefits of quitting amount toi Medical Association urged Blue about $34,000,lf Avery wrote,: Cross, Blue Shield and the "For female heavy smokers of ; Health Insurance Association of -the same age, total benefits are i America in recent letters to estimated at more than $12,000. "' :~ discourage smoking by reward-. : A spokeswoman for the Health. ing non-smokers. _:: Insur~ce Association of Amer.;_ CMA President Clarence Av-. ,' tea; whose 340 :.members account ery suggested incentives such as : for 85 percent .of the private' premium discounts, reduced health insurance sold in_th;? deductibles and increased health United :;States, .. said ''a sub-i benefits. :,,,;: stantial iniinber": of insurers: al; According to the congressional ready offer non-smo):dng dis 0 ffice of Technology ~.S.e$~ counts in individual pollcies. THE DALLAS MORNING NE"NS DALLAS, TX D. 360,350 S. 454,828 FEB 3 1986 ~E~L.FS ~l------r~::-::--WHAT THI STUDIES SHOW -1'.':;~~::\~: '1~,'11 a ABOUT THE COST OF 8~0;' ~---_:;;, .. ~ rY';: .'/~?:, A pack of cigarettes runs about $1.,50 v' r, from the vending machine, but tl\e {' smokes end up costing a lot more 1 .: than that before lt'e all over, accord. Ing to a new etudy bf the Office of Technology Anaessment, Congress' scientific advisory body. Cigarettes boat the United States about $65 bil lion a year In Increased medical bills, premature death. and time lost. from work -or $2.17 per pack consumed. The new estimate from the OT A Is higher than earlier etudlea, but offlclala say that even these hlOher figures represent a conserva tive estimate. After counting the C08ta of cancer,.heart disease and tung aliments, the OTA eays. the habit adds $22 billion to the U:~ health tab and $43 bllllon In lost wage and productivity... : .. '. :f '<
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$79.00 Hardbound Al)f'U 1986. App. 1,000 pages. L.C. No. 72-97888. ISBN 0-87187-358-JEC. CARO NO. 35 (Previous volumes of this series are still available. See card 36.) "For smaller libraries ... it will make im portant documents readily accessible." Wilson Library Bulletin "A useful collection .... American Reference Books Annual BUDGET FRONT ROW SEATS! Original texts of 1985's most important statements and documents. OTA "cost of smok ing"' ref,;lQrl. French government Greenpeace admissions. Tcagan hostage taking statement. Papal speeches. "Nuclear Winter" report. Many others, all with introductions to set the scene. FREE!!! REPRINTS OF FAMOUS ELECTION FRONT-PAGES FOR YOUR LIBRARY, STUDY OR OFFICE WALL. SEE REVERSE! Extra! Extra! Extra! Extra! .... .. I Ex.tr~. READ ALL ABOUT IT! Get these I I" x IT' replicas of famous newspaper "morning after election day" front pages FREE with books from this deck. If your order totals If your order totals $99-$148.99 $149-$198.99 -l'a,.-!ti-lctl'in1 ... J1fl'~ tif l.\.\l:11 I.\ t.-t.\lN;111:~ 1,t.;.llfun.n1.n11to1.111,.T1u.,_,,.,.~~ I.DlillA.'lif.UO.:.\'.Wllll lT#ltJI:\ AtllN i------. -!~J~!~i:; :,.;.,.~..,;~~ .. ""--.-:-:!If your order totals over $199 Replica .~I: FDR Set fl: JFK. 1960 1932 Ne,, York Times Washington Star & replica /II Washington Star & set /12 IMPORTANT! To get these FREE FRONT PAGES. complete the ORDER FORM that accompa nics this card deck even if vou send a purchase order. Send by midnight. June JO. 1986. Congressional Quarterly Books 1-11-1 ~2nd S1.. N\V Washington. DC 20037
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,;~ "?', :.,: '"' ~:: ; -.~ --~~]t t~~j~~'.-1 '. ':j:: !1itf;.1r.~r'~~'1L m4:e il:es 11.aht:ts Lntate.r DES MOINES, IOWA D. 234,927 SUN. 384,925 JAN 26 1986 ~IJ.E~l.PS USA TODAY WASHINGTON, DC CIRC. 1.332.974 FEB R 19~f) ~IJ.EI.I.E'S QUOTELINES ;;.."' ,, "Americans are in a chemophobic panic these days." Alan Caruba, National Pest Control Assn. "Remember that just a decade ago we didn't even know we had a hazardous waste problem.'' William Ruckleshaus, former EPA administrator "State agencies have been non-responsive to complaints. If you want to complain about a waste pit owned by the deputy sheriff, do you complain to the sheriff?" William Fontenot, Louisiana environmental expert "Environmentally, risks are often transferred from one community to another, and to future generations." --:-. Offi:C'!_!?f.Technology Assessment "(The excise tax) is dangerous. Once you open the door to this way of raising money, there will be no erd." -Sen. Howard Metzenbaum, D-Ohio 1t,aJ?;~l1B!~: .. : the U.S. House of Representatives rience in the space program. will be a loss for Iowa, and for Evans bas, and is a Grundy Coun-Congress as well. ty farmer as well. Evans announced that he will His understanding of the comnot seek election to a fourth term plex Farm Credit System made from Iowa's 3rd District this him the congressman ev~ryone year, and will resign sooner if he turned to for advice on the trou is appointed to a position in the bles of that giant lender. Department of Agriculture. Evans also made valuable con-Even though be said in his first tributions on world hunger and campaign in 1980 that six years' put his technical background to service should be enough, E'7ans good use on the oversight com might have been forgiven for mittee of the Office of Technolo changing his mind. He just gy Assessment seemed to be coming into bis own Re is a rare member of Con as a congressman of more than gress. His role will be impossible ordinary influence. to duplicate, and bis shoes will be His influence came from an un-difficult to fill. usual background, a keen mind If President Reagan selects and a grasp of complex subjects. Evans for a USDA position, he Few members of Congress have will have made an excellent I studied atomic-reactor tecbnolochoice. __ I
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to avoid a siruation similar to that in which discussion over plans for London's third airport have been dragged out over more than l O years. The decision to impose strict limits on public participation in debates over the relative merits of the different technological proposals has brought sharp protests from environmentalist and public interest groups on both sides of the channel, At the beginning of January, for example, a group of British organizations ranging from the Town and Country Planning Association to Friends of the Earth issued a joint statement describing the Transport Ministry efforts to hear their views as a "cosmetic operation." They pointed out that a Parliamentary committee which had given its approval to the project had spent only 31 working days hearing witnesses and prepar ing its report. This was "pitifully inade quate" in view of the importance of the project, the groups claimed. In France, a similar statement produced by a coalition including the National Feder ation of Associations of Transport Users said that it had not been consulted at all, and complained that this was "an unacceptable siruation" since, once the choice of design had been made, it would be too late to change. Discontent at the shortness of public de bate has even been expressed within the ranks ofThatcher's own Conservative Party, Europeans Embrace Technology Assessment The U.S. Office of Technology Assessment is seen as a model; so many European versions are being proposed that it may be "difficult to find new topics" says one official Paris. IN the early 1970's, the British govern ment decided to order an early-warning aircraft from its own aerospace industry rather than buy off-the-shelf from the Unit ed States. Ten years later, a succession of unforeseen technical problems has meant that the aircraft, Nimrod, is currently 4 years overdue and incurring cost overruns that have put a major strain on the whole of the British defense budget. "If we had had an Office of Technology Assessment at the time, we might have been able to save British taxpayers several hun dred million pounds," says Conservative member of Parliament Ian Lloyd, former chairman of the House of Commons Select Committee on Science and Technology and currently a prominent member of the Parlia mentary and Scientific. Committee. Lloyd is one of a growing nwnber of European politicians, coming from all points on the political spectrum, who are pushing for the creation in their different countries of technology assessment institu tions with comparable goals-though not necessarily an identical structure-to those of the agency set up by the U.S. Congress in 1973. The task is not proving straightforward. 7 FEBRUARY 1986 Because of the strong constitutional links between legislative and executive branches of European governments, European parlia ments find it much more difficult to act autonomously from their governments than the U.S. Congress does from the Adminis tration. Nevertheless, several different projects and proposals are already under way: The French Parliament has set up an Office for the Evaluation of Scientific and Technological Choices (Office Parliamen taire d'Evaluation des Chaix Scientifiques et Techniques) which published its first report-on acid rain-at the beginning of December. West Germany's Federal Parliament has set up an all-party committee to suggest what form a similar body should be given in Bonn. In the Netherlands, a bill is expected to be passed shortly setting up a technology assessment committee with half of its mem bers nominated by the Royal Dutch Academy of Science and the other half by the government's Council for Science Policy. The Austrian government has added technology assessment to the responsibilities of a research institute attached to the Academy of Sciences. some concerned about its impact on invest ment and employment in Kent, others upset that the less imaginative technology has been chosen. One Conservative Member of Parliament has promised that there will be a "grim uphill battle" when the bill authoriz ing the runnel is presented to Parliament. In defending their decision not to mount any further public inquiry, British officials point out that the technical solution chosen had already been identified as the optimal choice by the House of Commons Trans port Committee in December, and was also the one which had provoked the least oppo sition from environmentalist groups on both sides of the channel. DAVID DICKSON The leader of Britain's Labor Party, Neil Kinnock, has promised to create a British version of the American OTA if it defeats the current Conservative govern ment in the next general election, due to be held in 3 years ( the proposal is already being studied by the Parliamentary and Scientific Committee, where it has generated substan tial support); and The European Parliament, whose elect ed members oversee the work of the Com mission of the European Economic Com munity in Brussels, has also adopted a reso lution committing itself to setting up a similar office. No funds have yet been appropriated for it, however. The U.S. agency is widely quoted in Europe as the basic model, but different countries favor individual variations. A wide spectrum of motivations lies behind the current moves. For some, a strong parlia mentary office is seen primarily as a way to provide elected politicians with an indepen dent voice in political issues that have a high technological content. ''Whenever either of the two Houses of Parliament considers a major technical issue, we have nothing like the OTA to prepare our briefs," complains Lloyd. "Take the Strategic Defense Initiative, for example. The OTA has published two fat reports; we have had absolutely nothing." A member of the Luxembourg-based staff of the European Parliament suggests that the enthusiasm shown by those referred to as "Euro-MP's" is similarly linked to the increasing technical complexity of issues dealt with by the EEC commission, ranging from automobile-emission standards to the impact of computers on jobs. "The idea that science and technology are political is slowly pervading the Parliament," he says, adding that "committees in general are slowly wak-NEWS & COMMENT 541
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ing up to the fact that you do nor always have to believe what the commission says." A second source of motivation for most technology assessment supporters is the conviction, shared by many who argued for the U.S. OTA, that the social and environ mental consequences of a new technology should be discussed prior to its introduction more fully than can be done with a simple environmental impact statement. "OTA has published two fat reports [ on SDI]; we have had absolutely nothing, JJ says Lloyd. In Germany, for example, much of the pressure for a new parliamentary office has come from members of the Federal Parlia ment belonging to the radical environmen talist parry, the Greens. "Our position is that all new developments in technology should be shown to be acceptable before they are introduced into society" says Green member of Parliament Joachim Millier. In the Netherlands, this idea has been incorporated into the new legislation as an emphasis on what Pieter Tindemans, of the government's Department of Science Policy, describes as "constructive technology assess ment." "'We want to see if we can start from social needs and criteria and ask what technology might be developed to meet them," says Tindemans. "In our opinion, that is the way technology assessment has to go; we should not focus just on assessing technology after the event." Not surprisingly, there is considerable overlap between the subjects being pro posed for study among the different Europe an countries; indeed, Tindemans admits that it is "difficult to find new topics." Near the top of the list is the question of energy choices. Although in several coun tries (such as the Netherlands and West Germany) social conflicts around energy questions have focused on nuclear power, this has not been the only source of contra va,sy. The Austrian government's new support for technology assessment, for example, is said to have been partly a reaction to violent confrontations that took place last summer between environmentalist groups and the police over plans to flood a major wildlife reserve near Vienna as part of a new hydro electric scheme. "Ecological issues are really on the politi-542 cal agenda here now, just as they were in the United States at the beginning of the l 970's," says Austrian sociologist Helga Nowotny. "The government seems to feel that the time has come to institutionalize this kind of conflict." Other topics for study tend to fall into two groups. One contains those issues, such as the environmental impact of genetically engineered microorganisms or the moral issues raised by in vitro fertilization, where almost all European governments are com ing under pressure to regulate the use of a new technology. The other-for which there appears to be more support in Europe than in the United States-is made up of subjects where governments feel that they have a responsibility to cushion the social side effects of rapid technological change. In several cases, the new initiatives have required breaking traditional political molds. ''There are few precedents for this type of thing in France," admits Philippe Bassinet, chairman of the new parliamentary office in Paris which is overseen by a joint committee of National Assembly Deputies and Senators. Inevitably, compromises have had to be made. Unlike the case of the OTA, for example, the contents of the reports of the French office remain the direct responsibil ity of members of the committee (which may also decide whether the report is pub lished or not). Compromise has also been necessary in the Netherlands, where initial proposals that the technology assessment committee should be made up entirely of individuals nominated by the government was rejected as insufficiently objective, and a new bill was written giving the Academy of Sciences a leading role. In contrast, British Prime Minister Mar garet Thatcher firmly set herself against compromise last year when she rejected a suggestion from Lloyd that the British Par liament should create an OT A. Although Thatcher used economic arguments-the need to keep down public spending-to justify her decision, Lloyd suggests that political factors were also at work. "Mrs. Thatcher sees this as an extension of the power of the House of Commons. The government's opposition is the type of reac tion you would expect from any institution which feels that its decisions are going to be assessed more closelv than they now are," he says. Indeed, the British government has re cently moved provocatively in the opposite direction, rejecting demands from the social ist opposition that a public inquiry be car ried out into the social and environmental implications of the diflerent projects that were submitted as candidates for the Chan nel Tunnel (see page 540). Announcing this decision to the House of Commons, Trans port Minister Nicholas Ridley said that the delays caused by such an inquiry would inevitably lead to the "death" of the whole idea. Faced with such political realities, many supporters of technology assessment fear that, despite current manifestations of en thusiasm, its impact may remain marginal. ''The general tendency is not to allow these institutions to become too effective," says Nowotny. "The really touchy political issues may well not be affected." Similar concerns were, however, initially raised about OTA. But, with recent studies of SDI and the future of nuclear power, OT A has certainly been in the thick of touchy political issues DAVID DICKSON Briefing: EPA Proposes Ban on Asbestos In a move that has enormous financial and public health implications, the Environmen tal Protection Agency has proposed a ban on all future production of asbestos products. Under the plan, the manufacture of con struction materials with asbestos would be halted immediately and all remaining asbes tos products would be phased out in 10 years. The agency calculates that the resulting reduction in public exposure to asbestos over the next 15 years would ultimately prevent at least 1900 cancer deaths, primarily among would-be asbestos workers. Asbestos causes lung cancer and mesothelioma. The proposed regulation carries a hefty price tag, however. Over 15 years, consum ers will pay $1.8 billion more for products made with substitutes for asbestos, which averages out to $10 for an individual con sumer, according to the agency. Manufac turers of asbestos products would lose $210 million, but EPA says much of the industry's equipment can be converted to produce other products. The ban would also elimi nate the import of asbestos. This would mainly affect Canada, whose asbestos ex ports to the United States amount to $50 million a year. By banning asbestos products, the agency will break the "life cycle" of asbestos and prevent additional risk of exposure, says EPA administrator Lee Thomas. Mining, manufacturing, and disposal of asbestos "in evitably leads to air contamination," he said, SCIENCE, VOL. 231 -
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NUMBIR2933 BusinessWeek ---------ANIMAL TESTING: IS INDUSTRY MOVING TO MAKE PUCE? Few issues polarize Americans as much as the plight of animals sacrificed in scientific tests. Animal-rights propo nents last year persuaded Congress to pass a bill calling on researchers to exhaust alternatives before experimenting on animals. And now the chemical and cosmetics industry, after years of locking horns with animal-rights advocates, is meet ing this month to consider alternatives to the LD60 test, which rates a chemical's toxicity by how many animals it kills. Industry has long argued that eliminating such tests might save the lives of animals-but at the expense of valuable research, product safety, and, ultimately, human lives. Indus try's new conciliatory mood may trace partly t.o a new study by the Office of Technology Assessment. After a two-year review, the OTA concluded that while a t.otal ban on animal testing would have a dangerous effect on public health, adequate alternatives are becoming available for some research. The OTA wants Congress t.o encourage the use of nonanimal tests through tax breaks and other incentives. FEBRUARY 17,1916
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I Dallas Times Herald DALLAS, TEXAS D. 270,622 SUN. 373,225 FEB 4 1986 l!!fl.1,11'4$ -\ Human life vs. aninial rights ~ A j;:;~:lf{~~t!~ lIXJrt on the use of anfrha1s in laboratory experiments promises to bring some welcome sense to the emotional debate that has been raging between animal rights advocates and medical researchers in recent years. The congressional 2t Tecb.o2!. ogy ~ment study wisely avoids aligning itself with either side and instead addresses the task at hand -which is to find some equitable way of balancing the important needs of medical research with the humane treatment of the animals used in those experiments. The report is correct t.o point out that some of the more extreme animal rights advocates are misguided in their efforts to do away with all experimentation on animals Some experimentation always will be neces sary if medicine is to achieve the kinds of breakthroughs that allow for better care and treatment of human beings. The hundreds of thousands of people who are alive today because of heart-lung machines, vaccines, cancer therapy, insulin and dozens of other scientific advances owe their lives t.o the animals who made the ini-tial medical research possible. But the congressional/ study also is l careful to acknowledge that animal rights 1:. advocates have a valid point in arguing that too many animals are used unnecessarily in laboratory experiments and that they fre-quently are subjected to more pain and suffering than is essential. I At least 22 million -animals are sacrificed to research and:.. testing each year throughout the United States. Millions oL dogs, cats. rabbits and other animals coulct be spared~ the report suggests, if laboratories considered employing such. alternative approaches as computer sintulations and tissue cultures. That is sound advice. Although medicine cannot do without laboratory animals in all cases, researchers do need t.o ask themselves whether their work can be done with fewer animals or through other techniques. Ideally, experiments should be conducted with the smallest number of animals possible and only when other methods are impractical. Animal welfare and scientific advancement do not have to be at odds with each other. ---1 I
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THE NASHVILLE TENNESSEAN NASHVILLE. TENN. D. 123,455 SUN. 244,231 FEB 25 198n BU{M.EU .i'S f ~~~g~t~ratories 1'Mfilatle .. f'l'.'HE. natl?n s conscience olviously IS fringe. Concern for the anirnaJs was Virtual. ..l being raised about the treatment some ly non-existent in the flurry to further scien-labOratory animals receive for the sake of tific knowledge. _S(:ientific research. ,., ', ... _''.r-, --.:,-Toe Office of Technology A.$e$ment re. cently completed a two-yeat, $,000 study --on the use of anirnaJs in scientific researca It conduded that more American research el'Sare now sensitive to the treatment of lab -amtory animals, and are making an effort to reduce pain as much possible. .. : the OTA estimates that between 17 am1 22 million animals were used in lab tests in this country in 1983. the last year for which df:lta are available. Two-thirds ot the labora-tory animals were mice and rats_. but dogs. cats, guinea pi~ han'l&ers and _others were alsoused. .. -.~, ,.,, t.ongress de.serves some credit for the heightened awarenesc; of ailirnalrighu. I.ast year it strengthened the AnimalWelfmiAct oy requiring workers who handle Jaboratoryanimats to have specific training, and by gtving the National Institutes of Health the rlght to revoke government funds for labo ratories that Violate the law/' Public opinion polls indicate that most people still-condone the use ofIaboratory animals tor valid scientific research, but now they are .concerned that the animals are humanely treated an4 are used as infre quently as possible. Toe OTA report stressed the importance of finding alternatives to animals for scien.: tific research, and was most enth~c: about the use of computer-based testing.: Some of those alternatives to using live ani: ma.ls would not only be more humane,. but: could also be more precise and ls expen~/ sive. s Toe use of laboratory animals is nowand will remain for the near future -a .. balancing act Is it all right to perform a test of some animals, but not others? How much pain is too much? Few people would question the use of animals for re.search on can cer or AIDS-but what if they were submitted to painful tests for the development of liJX:ltick or hair dye? I I \
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RADIO CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD AVENUE I LIVINGSTON I NEW JERSEY 07039 (201) 992 I (212) 227-5570 I (800) 631-1160 February 5, 1986 12:05-12:20 PM MT ABC Information News and Comment Paul Harvey reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 10/6297 Y Our government's Office of Technology Assessment has completed its study, and concludes quote, "Much testing and experimentation on animals, ranging from monkeys to mice, is unnecessary, poorly regulated, and there are alternatives to most such tests." The OTA report covers four hundred pages, detailing the evolving technologies which can and should replace most animal tests. As is, laboratories sacrifice seventeen million to twenty-two million live animals every year, many with, with protracted suffering first. The OT A specifies that alternative procedures are applicable and preferable to liveanimal testing. The search for alternatives is fairly recent, having been brought about in the last five years, mostly as a result of pressure from people, people who consider animal sacrifices for any purpose, inhumane. Prodding of animal rights activists has motivated the National Cancer Institute and the FDA to limit animal testing. The NIH in response to that prodding, cracks down on Columbia University for it inhumane lab conditions and procedures. The cosmetics industry is urgently exploring alternatives to live-animal testing of its products. If headlines sometimes make it appear that civilization is in reverse, it is some reassurance to learn that mankind can be kind if he has to. Page three. ( Commercial break.) 204 WORDS 17 CLIPS
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~-~c-h'!_<_>_H~~n,!!!::'-1!!'.'!'~~-"h, Su11d11y, l'eb!!'""Y 2.J?~~ A-1.!_ !lesearchers seek alternatives to animal use, study says WASHINGTON (AP) A growinl number of U.S. re lW'dlen are trying to minimize pain and sulfering of llburatory animals and to reduce their ue by deYelopln1 1lternaUffl involvtn1 computen, ac:eordln& to a coap-ealJODIII study released yesterday. The study concludes, llowever, tbat in tbe f-ble llture laboratories will continue to sacrlllce mllli-of _.1mala eadl year for everything from studylq caneer to ltstlng CCllllllet~. The Olice of ThchnolOIY Coqlws' acleotlie ad'l'isGry arm, spent more tban two yean and $42S,G08 studyln1 animal 111e In sclentulc --, prodltl testln,r and education. It found that while 110lld figures are llanl to came.by, at mt 17 mlllwn to 22 million animals wen .-cl In U.S. ._.n:1i and teaUng In ltA, tbe latest ,ear for nidl data were avallable. 'Many animal welfare advocate. Y tbe lpre la far llqher -Yu hip u 70 mllllon -W t11e Olk:e ol TecbnolOIIJ ,_ment CGUld Ind no llalll for tut ~far, moat of tile anlmala are rat.I and mice. Dop. cal.I, rablllta, piMl pip. hamtten, blnb,..,., amplllbla111 and primates probably make up lea tun a tldnl of tbe total, tlle lludy found. The aalmala are..-maatvely la medlcll .-rd! Into 10.-and OOll!Qtlolll nnalnl fmn acqlllnd Im mune dellc:lency lflldnJrq_e and leprusy to bakba and menopaue and In bellavloral reeardl to ltnd:, lhlnp lllCla u learaiq. IOdal activity 81111 emotlcllll. In product teatiDI, leftllll million anlmala a ,ear are med to determine wlletller nbltaacet about to IO on the market are tome, lrritalilll or otllenrlle likely to caue barm to Uleir lnuDall men. Jn edtlcatloll, antmals are Ult!d for everytlaing from pets for preldioolen to dllNction aubjecta for medical 81111 veterinary studeals. Wlllle it is pn,ceedina slowly, the aeardt for alternatives to lafloratory animal uae la bebl& propelled by aeveral faeton, said Gary EUii. who directed tbe ..-tda project. For -tlllng, tbe ue of animals can be erpemiw and laflor-lntemive and tecllllologlcal adv-la eGlbpuler and blotedmololJ are matins poalble dleaper and slm-pier altemaUves. Some penunent regulatory agencies, whose req11ire-1:I are tbe re&Mn for mucb product testing. are willing to aceept tbe data from alternate sources, Ellis said. la addition, tllere llas been increased opposition to animal UN by animal welfare groups, which has generat ed lllbltaatial news media attention. Also, Coagrea In December passed a strengthened VWlfon of tbe 1911 Animal Welfare Act, which, among GIiier protective measures, calls for reseanhers to carefully altalllt aJteraaUyes before turning to animals as upertmental aubjeda. "I would aay that In toslcity testing there's a s"rious potential for a reduction la the numbers of rodenlll used, perbapa u within Ive years," EIits said. For eumple, GIie widely IIIICd test that has required the -ol IIWIJ u IGO rata or mice to determine the lethal dGN of eertau, llllllat-lo.u been relined to use ooly a tblrd tbal IIWIJ animals. Also, an alternative is being developed to the widely crltlcbed lest in which foreign matter II applied to rabbits' eyes to determine ils lrrltancy. --------------------------------------------Allernah11es smh as model and computer slmalati.may take Ille pla,-. >I the familiar high school biology dis.section of fmgs. although medical and veterinary mhools co11l.,nd that tlwy still need to use animals to ~,hrral" thdr stud,.nl,. TIIP t1t1!~u!ral !or animal alternatives in medical and b
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Kess Animal Use: A 'Local Initiative' u. s. ,~u-.,., W ASIIINGT0N-Any large-scale reduc tion in the quantity of animals used i.n research will result only from changes in individual protocols~ a congressional A.itudy director said. Dr. Gary 8. Ellis, who directed the Office of Technology Assessment's S425,000 study of alternatives lo animal MARCIi 1986 Medicine use in scientific testing and evaluation. said reductions in animal use are possi ble, and likely will come from the institutional level. "We concluded a total replacement or animal use is not going to be possible any time in the foreseeable future," Dr. Ellis added. .. We offer no opinion overall on how animals are being used in this country," he said. "We've taken a long view .. (and) concentrated on the process of regulation," he told a Washington briefing for medical and animal rights groups. the press, and congressional staff. Regulators have closed loopholes and strengthened local oversight, he maintained. for example, he displayed poster-size reproductions of government forms intended to track animal use in the private sector and he demonstrated fundamental bureaucratic errors in their structure. flaws which have been corrected. Dr. Ellis said the naws have for years induced double-counting. Since many inslitutions may have a stock of the old forms and continue lo use them, they still cast some doubt on estimates of the volume of animal use. He discounted published estimates lhal have been quoted by the media sug gc:sting 70 million animals annually are used, calculating instead that the number may be between 17 and 35 million. .. I can certainly put to rest the estimate of 70 million per year," Dr. Ellis said. is something that has captured popular attention." He said he traced ii back. to its source. a professor who has revised his one-time estimate. Regulatory reforms have increased animal research oversight al the local level through requirements for review commillees that include a lay member and through new guidelines published by the federal government for the care and use of animals, he added. Reductions in animal use will come about through initiatives at the institutional level, he predicted. (Con1inu,rd on IHI# J6) -U.S M~didt,,rphoto Dr. Gary B. Ellis Total replaumem not pouiblt
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)6 U.S. MEDICINE Animal Alternatives Under Development alternatives to lhe Oraize test, which measures chemical irritation in the eye of a live rabbit. Particularly promising, he said, is use or chick embryo membrane, which will respond to a poren tlally toxic substance with irritation that can be scored. (Continurd from pag~ 1) He said there are a variety of interest ing experlmenrn~ substitutions for live animal use in education, such as interactive video discs or computer simulations. However, Dr Ellis cautioned, "clearly, computers will no1 replace animal sub jects ... At a minimum. he added, ani mals are needed to validate computer progra1ns of c\ler-increasingcomplexity. On the classroom issue, he was asked why U.S. practices differ so markedly from the United Kingdom, where ani mal use is rarely a pan of medical educa tion, according lo an audience member from George Washington Univer..i1y representing the Physician's Committee for Responsible Medicine .. We make nojudgmem whether Brit ish doctors are bt:uer or more prepared than American doctors," Dr. Ellis said. lie noted increased use of training aids to substitute for animals. such as a manikin canine product called k.esusci Dog, which veterinary students can use 10 learn 10 measure a pulse. In other areas. Dr. Ellis cited work on The LD-50 method used 10 test for the lethal dose of chemicals--has been revised under federal requirements tu -..--:-r, ::..,.,_ ........ ,~.--~~\"'':!->-'J"J.:' ,i-~'-:~, :_,1 'l;;/-f,_ :'Jo.ti l!:~~;1 > j;~t;~'ll:_,,H W:~.Y.rlrfft_t,lJ~;-'. :,:j7-:,,_t "Lf;~.,: :,, n\ I'~"-""'~ ,."-i, ,,,,Mi.,,; .:"t'~if>r,inu., ,,,;,v,'.,, ... : 1 .~ < ,,Total N~b er Aliimals,yaea i tJ }\ ,. ... } _, _. .In F~!"al Jiadlit!~:Jffl-:._P,:1);!~+,,, ,., ,,-t ~-v-""~;::1,11A,i. .. ,~~,io ... ,. v ,l J '' ., ~i'ffl*t,,. ... ,1: :p 1v111 A1~ >,,: 111&1 ,_,,. 111&2 11183 F.cteral fKIIIUes L J' ,.} I ., : "~. lncludedfnrepor1t.... 188 :,,: <1,1$0. ijti111 f41l"',~W~ ;,131 .~,--18 L' ,g:r:::::'.:::::::::::: ,,J::= ,;.~'"1lt,e:r~= ~= 1 Prlmates ... 1 ,..... 1,286 ~1:.5,031 ;c3.-t51 ,~T~oe1,h~~~.801, 1,837 Gul-p1Q1 .. ;., ... 05.009 ,,,-40.425 25.402 .,,~4!1S,f'.d5,872 38.033 Hmstero ....... ,.. 45,2111. 25,213 JT,830 ,,,j-;.~1 .. ~,220 ta.m Rabblls .. ... _...... '3,867 32,205 21,631 t1,lle2 te,209 16,355 Wlldanlmt1la :~. .. 6.537 4,131' 3,20I .. UK .1; 1,018 8.037 :1: Totalanlma1, ..... 192,472 127,325 88.052 '""'l11~~~-:_.120..23S 89,7-47 lc,uldonolWICtvch,.lfflb.lop,a,c:IMNt~~-... ...-,.,,........... s~,if".z!' aoufilCI: OffiMf.cti--.-,Aa-t,~Ooft,',f't;fSAIM....iWM-~.....,.,~,tNJ /'t-u;;J.}!;,~ .,t-,:;ii,r.:;-:;: I J.~ jT~1:'il .. J MARCIi 1986 compel the use of only half as many animals, Dr. Ellis said. The foundation for Biomedical Research recently reported that scien tists increasingly arc turning to alterna lives to the 1.0-50 lest that concentrate on specific target organs, and which require fewer animals. "Up to 200 laboratory animals may be needed for one LD-50," the founda tion rc(lOrt said .... Newer procedures require as few as 16 ., However, the foundation ciled a pol itical reality: 43 foreign governments still require product safety data based on the I.D-50 test. .. The recent campaign by animal righrs organi,.ations to eliminate the use of the LD-50 procedure in product safety testing ignores the reality of cur ren( prac1ice in 1oxicology study," the foundation added. The two-pound OTA study report, entitled AI.Tl:HNATIVES TO ANIMAi. USE IN R~sl:ARCH, TESTING AND l::OlJCArHJN, was requested three years ago by the chairman of the Senate Lahor and Human Resoun.:es Commitlec, Sen. Oirin Hatch (R., Utah). A participant al OTA 's conference releasing the new report, Sen. Halch said his purpose in requesling it was 10 determine 1he practicality ot non animal methods in htomedical research. Commcntmg on th--:-.tudy's finding that a large scale replacement of animals by new technology is nol possible now, Sen. lla!Ch said he found the report to offer -'considerable promise_._in certain testing areas~ particularly 10xlci1y testing .. .. Research, anti to a less.er degree test ing, will continue lo require live animals for assessing <.:ornplcx in1erac1iOrls of cells, 1i~sues and organs,'~ Sen. Hatch said. He identified "policy issues" emanating from the repor1 as three possible options for congressional action: Provide incentives to use alternative methods tluough tax policies, authorizing grant:<. or educational assistance. ManS and other tragic ailments that strike so many peopk: in our country anti around the world_"
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-----------------..: washington viewpoint representative bill gradison washington, d. c. 20515 .,_____..} ______, i,.;.?SCIENCE AND TIIE In addition to these positive USE OF ANIMALS findings, the study also found Tremendous and unprecedentthat, for most areas of scientific ed progress in medical science, research, totally replacing animal public health and safety has oc-use with non-animal methods is curred within the span of a lifeunlikely. The study noted that al time. This progress, in large meaternative methods are only as re sure, would have been very diffiliable as the basic information cult without the use of animala in they are constructed on and the experimentation and teaching. use of animals is a prerequisite to the development of sophisticated The best available figures indialternative methods. cat.e that between 17 and 22 mil-Calls for humane treatment lion animala, (mostly 12 to 15 crop up persistently in the debate million rats and mice) are utilized over standards. I share the con each year in this country for recern about the treatment of anisearch, testing and education. In mala in the laboratory. To tma recent years, public awareneee end, I have cosponsored HR 26153, interest in animal welfare have the Improved Standards for Lab led to a significant debate on the oratory Animala Act, which will treatment of anima1a and realistic strengthen and ref'me many of-the alternatives to their use in science standards currently in use. and industry. Through this legislation, I hol_l8 progress can be made in strength-Standards in this area are deening standards forarumal Cllfe, termined at several levels. Moat improving the conditions under states have forbidden active cruelwhich experiments are'conducted ty and neglect of animala, and 20 and encouraging the use of alter states and the District of Columnative methods. bia regulate, to some extent, the 1Jll8 of anima1a in research. Self, regulation within institutions such u universities, research laboratories, and industry is the predominant means in ensuring humane standards. The scientific community relies on standards developed at the federal level. In 1985, Congress enacted three measures dealing with lab oratory animals, including amendments to the Animal Wel fare Act. Additional standards are set by the Environmental Protec tion Agency, the Food and Drug Administration, and the National Institutes of Health. These stand-ards bring the overwhelming ma jority of experimental animal users Wider the oversight of for mal local review committees. Critics charge, however, that these standards are ineffective and that many experiments and teaching methods continue to involve un necesaary duplication and needleee suffering to animala. In response to inquiries, the congressional Office of Technol <>il. A.al!essment (OTA) recently completed astudy entitled "Al ternatives to Animal Use in Research, Testing and Education". The study concluded that there are alternatives, in some cases, to the use of animala. For eumple, computer simula tions baaed on previously collect ed data can sometimes be just as effective a teaching tool as using an animal. The study also noted the recent willingnesa of federal agencies to accept data baaed on alternative test methods. RIPLEY. OH BEE w. 2. a o a FEB 2 7 1986 Bue~eu .es
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FER BIO SCIENCE ARLINGTON, VA. MONTHLY 18,000 1986 BUMEU.E~ /Althou~h ;6;. technical potential for I controlling tropical diseases has never been greater, the United States does not make the effort that it could to fight these diseases, according to a congressional Office of Technology Assessment (QT.A) report. The report, Status of Biomedical Research and Related Technology for Tropical Diseases, says that, out of a total annual biomedical research budget of more than $4 billion, the United States spends less than $100 million on tropical disease research. Yet these diseases afflict several million people in the world's less developed coun tries as well as many people from industrialized nations who travel to the tropics. The United States has made significant contributions to controlling tropical diseases, OTA says, but could do much more. The report looks specifically at a group of six diseases and several biomedical technologies that could be used to control them. The study can be or dered for $11.00 from the US Gov ernment Printing Office, Superinten dent of Documents, Washington, DC 20402. Include GPO stock number 052-003-00987-1. PHARMACEUTICAL MANUFACTURING SANTA MONICA, CA MONTHLY 20,411 DEC 1985 Bu_>t(tEU.E'S Orphan designation for tropical disease drugs recom.rnended b:)_'17Y,.h f In a report assessing t e status o medical technology development and research funding for tropical diseases, the Of(~..QL!~ch_'!ol?gy Asses~rnent (OT A) recommended that Congress consider specifically including drugs and vaccines for tropical diseases in the definition of orphan drugs. The designation of these products as orphans would encourage research and development in this area, according to the report. Other recommendations in the OT A report, entitled "Status of Biomedical Research and Related Technology for Tropical Diseases," included amending the HHS inter national health mandate in order to remove: "limitations on research" and considering the establishment of a nonprofit corporation to sponsor R&D for tropical diseases until such research becomes economically attractive to private industry. J FAR EAST HEAL TH NEW YORK, NY 11 Tl, A YR, JAN 1986 Bume1.1.rs Tropical R & D~)'-1"1'/ IN ITS REPORT to the Senate on the status of biomedical re search and related technology for tropical diseases, the Qfikt. of Technology Asse~~'!l_ent sug gested a series of options to Congress which, it believes, will encourage the R & D needed to control the diseases. The options are: The explicit designation of tropical disease-related drugs and vaccines as orphan drugs. The encouragement of appro priate US federal agencies to consider incentives, such as guaranteed purchases and assi stance in trials to manufac turers willing to undertake tro pical disease drug R&D. The creation and funding of a "quasi-government non-profit corporation" to develop related medical products until they become sufficiently attractive financially to a manufacturer in terested in exclusive licensing for commercial purposes; or the stimulation of interest in an international non-profit corporation to do the same. using financial assistance from various national governments and international groups; or the creation of non-profit cor poration to develop the needed products for which there appears little commercial interest. A special US Congressional appropriations subcommittee hearing on tropical disease re search, attended by representa tives from the NIH, the Centers for Disease Control, the Depart ment of Defence and the Agency for International Development, as well as international agencies and private foundations. A requirement that each of the US agencies above submit a report describing the status of its involvement in tropical disease research, along with any needed data, for use in a hearing. The information could also be used to avoid duplication of effort, and to provide an indication of new directions to be taken by any other group. An increase of US federal spending on all aspects of tro pical disease research. The removal of research limitations on the DHHS, specifically, the transfer of all authority for international health research to the De partment.
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PHARHACEUTICAL REPRESEHlAllVE NORTHFIELO, IL "ONTHLV 18000 FEB/01/19B6 /Jllf{!f..llE'S OTA recommends broad study of DRG ramifications WASHINGTON -An Office of Tech nology Assessment (OT A) study h~s recommended the development of a strategy to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of Medicare's prospective payment system (PPS) and its effects on patient and health care costs. The OTA study, "Medicare's Pro spective Payment System Strate gies for Evaluating Cost, Quality and Medical Technology," stated that "it's too early to know how the change in financial incentives" initiated by the PPS methodology for reimbursing hospitals based on DRGs has affected patient and health care costs. However, the report continued, "a strategy is needed for evaluating the effects as they occur. "Evaluation is time-consuming and costly, particularly the monitoring of changes in quality of care, access to care and technological change," OTA noted, and added that the funds and personnel necessary to conduct such an evaluation "are not available within any federal agency, including the Health Care Financing Administration, which has a Congressional mandate to prepare annual reports on PPS impacts." At the same time, the study found "shortcomings" in the Medicare data bases, which, OT A said, may affect the scope of the evaluations. OTA called for the designation of a federal agency to coordinate and oversee the federal PPS evaluation and its related data bases. When evaluating how changes in the health care system have affected both patient benefits and costs, the study recommended that PPS evaluators keep in mind that there are other changes occurring in the health care system. In addition, the report identified five factors which might be used as indicators of PPS's effects, including expenditures and costs, quality of care, access to care, technological change and clinical research. To ensure a comprehensive report of PPS's effects, the evaluation should include the "most vulnerable Medicare beneficiaries, which includes the elderly, the alcoholic and mentally ill patients hospitalized for other condi tions, and the disabled. The report went on to stress that while it is too early to draw any conclusions about the effects of PPS, "some changes have occurred in the U.S. health care system that appear to be related to the adoption of PPS." However several other factors may have also influenced these changes. According to the OTA, in the first year of PPS, the average length of hospitalization of Medicare patients dropped from 10.2 days to 8.8 days by the end of 1984. The number of fulltime employees fell by 2.2% between 1983 and 1984, and the number of Medicare hospital admissions did not increase, the agency reported. Some hospitals benefited financial ly from the new reimbursement sys tem. As a group, the institutions saw financial gains of an estimated $8.3 billion, the report showed. On the other hand, not all institutions recorded increases. Hospitals in the west-south-central and mountain re gions "experienced a financial de cline, while small hospitals' operating margins dropped. Institutions with fewer than 25 beds "suffered ahsolute losses," the report concluded. The report was prepared by OTA at the request of Senators Robert Dole (R-KS) and Russell R. Long (0-LA) of the Senate Finance Committee, and Senators John Heinz (R-PA) and John Glenn (D-OH), of the Senate Special Committee on Aging.
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..., ... ~.......;------------.,,, __ --~---.-----THE WASHINGTON POST I JACK ANDERSON and JOSEPH SPEAR :w '+ Surveillance Methods Open to Abuse. I f you think Big Brother is watching you, it As the federal government's chief investigative doesn't necessarily mean you're paranoid. One agency, the.FBI might well have a legitimate need thing is certain: Federal agencies have the for the 18'technologies. But the bureau was latest, super-sophisticated surveillance disturbingly secretive when the OTAteam asked it equipment-and they're using it. to explain the use of each technology ...... What.bothers civil libertarians is that fed era~ "Due to the sensitive 'ftature ,and-specific-' -~ laws regulating surveillance devices and techniques application of the equipment and techpiques by the are hopelessly out of date. State-of-the-art FBI, detailed information regarding the specific technology has not been matched by technology, application, user, locations etc., cannot : state-of-the-art legislation. -"' ~: be disseminated outside the FBI," itsaid~:c'"'"'::~~c.. .: ,. The result, according to a recent study by the Among its 18 technologies: radio scanners, -f~-
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WV, 1:..,,,, f L S~ someone's listening ':., !~/:..11;::-\ : The existing law to protect phone users from illicit eavesdropping is barely 18 yeari old, but it might as well be 200 for all its rel evance to the 1986 communications scene. In 1968, when Congress mandated judicial supervision of wiretaps, conversations were transmitted over metal wires owned by a single phone company. Now, communications bounce from satellites and travel by microwave, cellular telephone, and computer. Electronic maii flashes from coast to coast, with fewer privacy protections than a postcard. And thanks to de regulation, these new communications marvels are controlled not by one monolithic phone com pany, but by scores of corporations small and large. Worried about the state of privacy in sup posedly private communications, the Senate is updating the laws on surveillance. The congres~ sional Office of Technology Assessment was asked to provide the lawmakers with an over view of current surveillance arts and their use by the government. OT A found equipment of the utmost sophistication in wide, largely unsuper vised, and sometimes inappropriate use. It found massive collections of data ill-protected from intrusion. For instance, one federal agency in four is hooked into one of four comprehensive surveil lance data bases maintained by the government for law-enforcement or intelligence-gathering purposes. (The CIA, the National Security Agency, and the Defense Intelligence Agency aren't covered by this study and are generally outside the scope of privacy legislation.) The OT A further found only the flimsiest barriers among the various government data bases, and between public and private computer records. For example, a Coast Guard investiga tor with legitimate access to the FBI's National Crime Information Center could, with a little fine-tuning, -elicit also a suspect's Social Security number, food-stamp account, credit-card records, travel reservations, and much more. Some of these data are supposed to be confiden tial; the rest are usually not the government's business. The OTA found bureaucrats giving in to the temptations of technological overkill. One fed eral agency in four employs electronic sensors, computer-use monitors, phone registers, fiber optics transmitters, satellite-message inter cepts, or night-vision instruments to track the unwary. Much of this high-tech hardware records and reports more than the tracking agency needs to know. Most of it is not covered by our horse-and-buggy-era privacy laws. Where is Congress to begin on this snooping explosion"? Law enforcement is perhaps the most straightforward case. A judge asked to approve surveillance of a suspect considers the seriousness of the crime alleged, the intrusive ness of the proposed spying technique, and the number of nonsuspects who will be inadvertent ly spied upon in the process. Congress can write guidelines for courts, standards that might say, for example, that a planted microtransmitter that details a target's every move is too intru sive for a suspected car thief or check passer. But the rest of this legislation won't be easy going. The techniques and equipment are fear fully sophisticated. They are at their highest use ever in the federal government, and, as the OTA said, there's no way tu estimate the amount of illicit spying that gues on in the private sector. Congress's job is clear here. even if it isn't easy: to extend privacy regulations to all the new forms of communication; to set stringent iimits on the government's use of this sdence f iction equipment; to build electronic fences around centralized data on individuals who aren't criminals; and to assure law-abiding citizens that if someone is looking through the key hole, at least it isn't their own government.
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== ',4;{~, ---,,__ ---'i>o New Technologies ThNPaten Privacy? Radio pagers and cellular phones used in surveillance activities may pose problems for the government and the governed. DAVID SCOTT ,)-c;-;)/ When James Madison ~as mull ing over the idea of democracy 200 years ago, he remarked that "if men were angels, no government would be necessary. If angels were to govern men, neither external nor internal controls would be necessary." Because men aren't angels, and angels have as little say today as they did in eight eenth-century politics, what Mr. Madison saw then as "the great difficulty" of de mocracy remains true today: "You must first enable the government to control the governed; and in the next place, obligate it to control itself." One way to control the government that Mr. Madison and his fellow Constitution drafters came up with was the Fourth Amendment, which protects "the right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers and effects, against un reasonable searches and seizures." Written in ~n age without credit cards, computers, telephones or cars with phones in them, the principles of the Fourth Amendment to the Constitution may have endured, but enforcement and applica tion of these principles "has not kept abreast of current technologies." So says the most recent report of Congress' Office of Technology Assessmj;!1Jt{ITTA) a,panel created thirteen years ago to advise Con gress on the legal, technical and ethical implications of all sorts of technologiesfrom food and renewable resources to ra dio pagers and cellular car phones. These latter two technologies are due to pose some serious problems for the government and the governed, according to OT A's study, "Federal Government In formation Technology: Electronic Sur veillance and Civil Liberties." Surveillance Options Have Grown "Public policy on the use of information technology to monitor individual move ments, actions and communications has been based on a careful balancing of the civil liberty versus law enforcement or in vestigative interest," says OTA Director John H. Gibbons. "New technologiessuch as data transmission, electronic mail, cellular and cordless telephones, and min-__ YUOCATORn..4.0.~011 t986 iature cameras-have outstripped the ex isting statutory framework for balancing these interests." Over the past few decades, the menu of surveillance options has grown consid erably. While in the past electronic sur veillance consisted primarily of telephone taps and hidden microphones, each de signed to intercept conversations, today U.S. and foreign governments and private concerns can use a wide variety of tech niques to undermine the privacy of con versations, individual actions and per sonal and financial records. Just around the comer, OT A expects that computer speech recognition and optical-fiber tech-As OTA points out, until 1967 electronic tracing of conversations wasn't deemed to bea "search" under the Fourth Amend ment. This changed, however, with that year's landmark Supreme Court finding in Katz v. United States that wiretapping is a "search." The high court outlined two basic tenets that must be considered in judging the constitutionality of eaves dropping techniques-that people have "a reasonable expectation of privacy" and that "the Fourth Amendment protects people and not places." The significance of this latter holding has increased '~ith the growth of third-party recordkeepers" such as banks, OTA says. Whether or not they are aware such (wiretapping) laws are on "the books, most people generally feel their phone conversations are private. nology could yield even more pernicious techniques for abridging privacy rights. The invasion of privacy is expensive business, according to OTA, costing as much as $40,000 to intercept telephone calls carried by microwave. However, once in place, interception can be done "rela tively easily and without the awareness of the network owner." The network owner's only recourse is to use equally expensive countermeasures such as mes sage encryption and so-called "spreadspectrum" transmissions. While Congress has passed several im portant laws in this area, it has been the courts that have had the firmest hand in shaping the constitutional framework within which surveillance must be con tained. Even so, this framework often hinges on not-so-neat interpretations of the two-centuries-old Fourth.Amendment. Laws and Judicial Interpretations Out-of-Date Yet OTA feels that _he Katz framework hasn't held up well over the years and has been particularly unhelpful in shaping policies for new technologies. "Reasona ble expectation of privacy is an inherently nebulous phrase and, despite .twenty years of judicial application, predicting its meaning in a new context is difficult," says OT A. "Determining whether a place is sufficiently private to offer protection against official surveillance is more and more difficult as the public sphere of activities encroaches on what was once deemed private." Congress has protected the privacy of communications in the Communications Act, Section 605, which provides that "no person not being authorized by the sender shall intercept any communication and di vulge ... the contents." In 1978, Con-97
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gress passed the Foreign Intelligence Sur veillance Act, which sanctioned the use of wiretaps, radio intercepts and moni toring techniques in certain instances for use in gathering foreign intelligence and counterintelligence information. But the major communications privacy law is found in Title III of the 1968 Omnibus Crime Control and Safe Streets Act, which was drafted to meet the standards set out in the 1967 Katz case in protecting the privacy of wire and oral communi cations, and laying down a uniform standard for judging which spying activities may be allowed by the courts. The 1968 Congress said "wire" com munications was any call using "in whole or in part" the facilities of a wire-based common carrier. "Oral" communications is any utterance made by a person under the expectation that the utterance will not be intercepted; "interception" means the "aural acquisition of the contents of any wire or oral communication through the use of anv electronic, mechanical or other device." The government can only violate pri vacy in this area by securing a court order stating that the subject of surveillance is suspected of involvement in one or sev eral of the law's enumerated "major" of fenses, or is linked to "organized crimi nals." The law expressly permits individual states to develop their own wiretapping laws, so long as they are modeled after the federal statute. According to OT A, Stay On Line With PageRepair PageRepair can keep your business on line at an affordable price. Our staff of experts are qualified to repair all makes and models of pagers including Golay and POCSAG. We assure you minimal downtime with prompt courteous service. So next time, tum to PageRepair to take repair problems out of your pagers. Call (201) 943-9521 for straight talk. on our services. WPageRepair, Inc. 824 River Road Edgewater, New Jersey 07020 more than half of the states currently have such laws on the. books. Whether or not they are aware such laws are on the books, most people generally feel that their phone conversations are pri vate. However, this is not the case ac cording to OT A. "Technological innovations now make it easier to electronicallv monitor both the content of phone calls' and phone trans actions (e.g., number called, time and place called)," OTA savs. "Furthermore, the new telephone techn~logy was not envisioned when current legal protections were en acted, and thus the statutory protection against telephone surveillance is weak, ambiguous, or nonexistent." No Privacy for Cellular, Cordless Phones Especially vulnerable are the contents of phone conversations transmitted in digi tal form or over cellular or cordless telephones. No court has yet ruled on the privacy implications of cellular mobile technol ogy, OTA notes. However, in 1973 the Ninth Circuit federal appeals court held, in United States v. Hall, that Title III of the 1968 crime law protects calls from a con ventional mobile phone to the landline telephone but doesn't protect mobile-to mobile calls. Two state courts have ruled on privacy protections for cordless telephones. In 1984, the Kansas Supreme Court said cordlessphone users have no "expectation of pri vacy" under the Fourth Amendment, and that interception of cordless phone calls doesn't violate the 1968 crime law. The Rhode Island Supreme Court made a sim ilar ruling early in 1985. OT A says that in order to work up spe cific privacy protections for cellular and cordless telephones, Congress must con sider three questions: D Should conversations carried via cell lular or cordless phones be accorded a lesser right to privacy than wire-based calls "be cause the technology makes it easier to overhear such calls?" D Should the caller and receiver each be afforded the same right to privacy? This question arises because while mobileor cordless-phone users know they are using radio technology, people they call on the landline network may not know this, and under a judicial concept known as "one party consent and assumption of risk," it is possible that the landline customer's right to privacy isn't covered under the Fourth Amendment. This concept wasn't discussed in the state Supreme Court cases on cordless telephones. D Should standards be thought up to curb the potential use of cellular networks for tracking purposes? As OT A notes, "by monitoring the switching of cellular phone calls from one frequency to another [cell to-cell handoff], the cellular carrier can de termine the location of individuals placing and receiving calls. Moreover, some com-98 ./"'l'a.oCATOR/MARCH 1986
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panies record this information in a com puter for billing purposes. At this time, precise locations cannot be determined because the cell sizes are large, but as cel lular phones become more and more pop ular, cell sizes will be reduced. Cellular Used by Government Investigators Five government agencies currently rely on the interception of cellular radiotelephone calls as part of their electronic sur veillance activities. However, OTA found the federal investigators make only "lim ited use" of radio pagers and "beepers." Many people use the words "pagers" and "beepers" interchangeably, but in surveillance lingo a "beeper" is an elec .;,,. ----Intelligence legislation passed in 1978, which protects digital communications. The department feels that display-pager users do have a reasonable expectation of privacy under the Fourth Amendment, and that court permission should be secured prior to interception. Tone-and-voice pagers constitute aural communications under the law, hence a warrant is re quired. Three Options for Congress Overall the OTA study concludes that Congress has three options in dealing with privacy and new communications tech nologies: D Congress could "do nothing" and con tinue to allow the courts and the admintronic transmitter planted on a suspect's --------------bumper and used to track his or her move, ments. In fact beepers are a far more subtle form of tracking device. Powered by selfcontained batteries, beepers are about four inches long and two inches wide and about ,. three quarters of an inch thick. Three U-shaped magnets make it easy to stick on a bumper, under a dashboard or to any. inconspicuous metal area on cars, ships, trucks or objects. On the ground in the city, one can pick up beeper signals within I a one-mile radius of the vehicle. From 6,000 feet up in a helicopter, a beeper can be tracked within. a 250-mile radius. OTA found that thirteen federal agen-1 des are using beepers currently, and two more expect to in the near future. The I Supreme Court has outlined the param eters of beeper surveillance in two deci sions. United States v. Knotts in 1983 said that using a beeper to track a car was not an illegal search and seizure under the Fourth Amendment because cars travel in public spaces and, therefore, there is no : "reasonable expectation of privacy." I However, in its 1984 ruling in United States :v. Karo, the high court said that us ing a beeper to trail a container into a ; house did violate the Fourth Amendment because the home is a place where one expects privacy. The United States Department of Jus tice's policy on beepers, in light of these decisions, is to obtain a warrant for any use of a beeper beyond its use on a moving vehicle. While used less often, the Justice Department also has a policy on the use of radio pagers in undercover operations. This policy is based on the type of pager used. For instance, tone-only pager signals can be apprehended without a prior warrant or court order because the transmission is only a sound (a tone) and hence is not an aural communication. However, the Jus tice Department, according to OTA, feels ~at "intercepti_o~s o~ [tone-only] pagers mvolves a suffioent invasion of privacy that a court order should be secured prior to interception." While the 1968 privacy law protects nei ther tone-only or digital display pagers, the latter is covered under the Foreign '---istrative agencies to exercise their discre tion. This approach isn't recommended by OTA because it would "lead to continued uncertainty and confusion" and ignore pleas made by the federal courts "for clar ification" of congressional intentions in this area. D Congress could amend the 1968 law to protect all phone calls, regardless of their i mode of transmission (i.e., radio or wire), ; and to protect data communications. D Congress could "formulate specific policies depending on technological con straints and possibilities." a David Scott is co-editor of Telocator Network of America's newsweekly, the Bulletin.
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HERALD EXAMINER LOS ANGELES, CA D. 233,193 SUN. 215,871 SAT. 175,765 DEC 20 1985 GJ;towth in automation will mean steady drop ~office employment By VIC: OstrowtdzkJ /q J '-f so~e paid w~rk at. home using Herald Washington correspondent m1croelectromc empment, and that as many as 15 million may do so in the future. ASHINGTON -By the year 2000, comCurrently, approximately 45 puter terminals will percent of employed Americans be as commonplace work in offices. Twenty percent on ttte;..desks of the 45 million are clerical workers, 25 percent Amefit:jns working in offices as are managers or professionals. tele~es are now, a congresOffice work is the dominant sional:.panel reported yesterday. activity in the insurance and ~ffice of Technology As banking industries. sessmem said that the' rapid Over half of all employees in grij)iffif!;t)f office automation will servie industries and nearly 30 resu-lt-inlarge productivity gains percent of the employees of -anaa steady decline in office manufacturing firms are office employment, which bas been the workers. And about 80 percent of strongest source of job creation federal employees are office throughout this century. workers. The drop may start to register OT A warned that in an effort as soon as 1990, the report said. to cut costs, some companies are In a report to Congress, OTA already relocating their data suggested that the slowing of entry operations to other coun employment growth will most tries that offer low labor costs, likely affect clerical jobs, midincluding the Caribbean, South level management positions and America, India and the Far East. some professional occupations. It said. however. that although It suggested that emphasis on the use of "offshore" labor will cost reductions will result in likely increase in the next dee many organizations relying more ade, it will probably decline again on part-time and temporary em-regardless of policy interven ployees, who already make up 20 tion to facilitate or inhibit it as percent of the work force. automation decreases the costs of Since part-time and temporary data processing in the United workers usually are not entitled States. to company employee benefits. According to the study, the such as pensions or medical next 15 years will see a steadily insurance. the move will save increasing use of small comput companies a lot of money. ers. usually supplementing rather At the same time. OTA than superseding centralized au warned. a growing proportion of tomatic data processing. In addithe work force will be without tion, rapid technological essential protections that ulti advancement will result in com mately will cause these costs to puters that communicate with be borne by the taxpayer. each other and conduct a converThe study said that at least sation with the people operating 30,000 Americans probably do them.
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THE ARIZONA REPUBLIC PHOENIX,AZ o. 283,550 s. 430,200 JAN 20 1986 ~!/EI..I.PS \Unemployment, new job roles likely as offices computerize By JUDY LINSCOTT New York Dally News /_p } Cl '1 'I Enough of saying smugly, ,;Weil, computers will never replace me, because they can't think." First, they're getting smarter all the time, so don't be so sure. But second, even if they can't replace you, they certainly can perform a few of your heretofore unique specialties. According to a new congressional report, Automation of Americas Offices, you should expect not only mor.e computers but computers that can do more. That means potentially more free time for you, but it also raises the question of what will happen to that free time. And, like it or not, it will mean some job displacement. Almost half of America's workers toil in offices. Basically, since the introduction of the typewriter, office employment has grown faster than any other job sector over the past century. Automation will slow that growth and may even send it into decline, according to the report by the Cguues3jonal Offia_sf 'f.echnology Ass~ent. Teagency compiled the report on some of the problems and issues that technology will raise and on the government's potential role in dealing with them. Overall, the report says, automa tion should prove benefical both to companies and employees. There will be a bumpy transition period-, however. Offices will have an increasing demand for information, which theoretically means more work. But .a corresponding growth in productivity, again theoretically, should bring about an overall reduction in the necessity for more workers at both the clerical and managerial levels. Even if it doesn't, automation surely will change the nature of those jobs, sometimes in obvious ways, sometimes in not-so-obvious .ways. Within four years, the report says, there may be a computer terminal for every three workers. In 15 years, the computer will be as common as the office telephone. So what's happened already? According to the report, more offices are using small computers and more office computer systems aJ"e able to communicate with each other. Improved software and bet ter computer links-mean that more people can use the terminals and that using them is getting simpler. MOit workers, at all levels, ini tially fear office technology, but the agency's report points out that after gaining experience with it, many change their minds. The bad news, of course, is that automation can make a job more boring, routine and repetitive. The good news is that it can make it simpler, fJ"eeing a worker to do more-interesting tasks. Office automation means some revising of the old hierarchal office "rules": Professionals or managers begin to type their own letters on computers, for example, and lowertevel workers often have access to more information. The hardest-hit level, however, still is likely to be the first-rung clerical positions. Office automation may increase the trend toward part-time and temporary work, which has been on the upswing. Office automation isn't the main reason-that companies are big on part-timers -cost and efficiency are the compelling factors but computers often help make it possible. ;, The plus factor is that more people are in the job market overall and there is more flexibility for those who want part-time work. The downside is that many partI timers do not receive benefits, which may mean that sooner or : later, society will have to begin to pick up the tab. Office automation will particu larly affect women and minorities, according to the report, because -those groups are concentrated in the clerical and supervisory levels likely to be hardest hit. In some of the job areas newly created by computers, the same old patterns of pay differences and limited advancement opportunities: still exist, according to the report. One of the major concerns the report mentions is health. Worries about the impact of. using computer display terminals~ on both physical and mental health, ranging from neck strain to blurry vision and miscarriages, are growing. The report notes that many of the minor problems, such as fatigue or muscle strain, can be handled with intelligent reworking of the physical setup of the office. But the more serious questions, such as reproductive problems and long-term stress, deserve serious investigation and monitoring. __..... ---
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SEATTLE, WA JOURNAL OF COMMERCE 0. 8,840 DEC 23 1985 {!U/f/1,E,/.i,E"S Congressional report states Computer terminals will be as cqmmonplace. as telephones WASHING TON (UPI) puters. It is a basic and far-reach-fice work, which provides jobs Computer terminals will soon ing change in the tcl:hnology that for nearly half of American become as commonplace on ofsupports fundamental economic workers and has been the strong fice desks as telephones and and social activities," the report est source of job creation much clerical work will be persaid. throughout this century, is clearly formed at home or in third world "As computers and telecomsomething that Congress should countries, a congressional report munications become standard watch closely in order to take cor said Thursday. equipment for office work all rective actions in a timely The con~ressional Qffis~ of Americans will be affected either fashion,'' the report said. Te_shn2!._o.sf &ijs,5went, which as office workers or as users of The volume of clerical work analyzes issues for Congress, office products and services.,, done at home or sent "off-predicted there will be dramatic The report said -businesses will shore" to Third World countries changes in the American workbe the winners with greater proalso will increase dramaticalfy in place both good and bad as ductivity as autdmation takes the next 10 to 15 years, the report a result of office automation. over the workplace, but the shift said. By 1990 the report said that The 348-page report, "Auto-will eliminate many jobs and between S million and 18 million mation of America's offices," change the kinds of tasks workers home-based workers will be using said that in five years, one out of have traditionally performed. computers. every three workers will use a It said the decline in the deAnd the number of U. S. firms computer, and by 2000, terminals mand for workers will have its sending "data-entry" work may be as commonplace on ofgreatest impact on clerical jobs overseas has increased signififice desks as telephones are tothat include mostey women and cantly, and poses the special pro day. minorities, but there also will be blem of protectionism for clerical "Office automation is more less need for lowerand mid-level jobs in the United States, the than the replacement of typemanagers. report warned. writers by word processors and of "The possibility of reduced Right now, computerized bookkeeping machines by comemployment opportunities in ofclerical work is sent to some Caribbean countries, South America, India and the Far East, where workers are typically paid $15 to $60 per week. The impact of automation on the workplace also raises new issues for Congress, the report said, as well as the need to prob ably change and strengthen existing labor laws. "Many of the concerns that have been raised with regard to office automation are transition problems," the report said. ''They can and will be solved in time by a combination of market forces and cooperative efforts of workers and managers."
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COMPUTERWORLD FRAMINGHAM, MA w. 123,934 DEC 30 l 985 1!$UMEJ.J.FS OTA pushes for government research on VDTs and health By Mitch Betts ~~1''tf WASHINGTON, D.C. The U.S. government needs to conduct more rese:vch about the health problems of VDT users, but most of the transi tion problems associated with office automation do not require immediate government action, according to the U.S. Congress' Office of Technology Assessment (01'.AT In addition to health concerns, the government should pay particular at tention to changes that office auto mation makes in U.S. employment patterns, a new report by the nonpartisan office said. But the OTA report concluded that the scrutiny should not obscure the benefits of office automation. "If judiciously implemented and wisely managed with a view to the legitimate interests of all parties, this basic technological advance can strengthen the American economy and advance the well-being of all Americans," the report said. As commonplace as phones The OTA said that in the office of 1990, one out of every three workers will use a computer terminal, and by the year 2000, terminals may be as commonplace on office desks as telephones are today. The major health issues in office automation are the long-term stress of office jobs and the effect of VDT work on pregnant women, the OTA said, adding that the government lacks critically needed data on these subjects. Consequently, the OTA suggested, Congress should direct the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration and the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health to conduct more research concerning the health of office workers. The agencies now mainly emphasize the I health of blue-collar workers. While available scientific research leads to the conclusion that VDTs do not hurt human reproduction, the OTA said, reports of unexplained miscarriages among VDT users and heightened public concern "make it essential that scientific research and careful monitoring continue until the possibility is entirely ruled out." The increased efficiency offered by office automation is likely to slow the growth in office employment in the next few years, and during the 1990s, office employment may begin to decline, the OTA reported. Data entry jobs, especially, could be sharply reduced by the use of electronic document and funds transmissions, optical scanning equipment and voice recognition systems. The OTA concluded that the possi bility of reduced job opportunities in office work, which provides jobs for nearly half of U.S. workers and has been the strongest source of job creation throughout this century, is something Congress should watch closely. The report, titled "Automation of America's Offices," is available from the U.S. Government Printing Office in Washington, D.C.
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USA TODAY WASHINGTON, DC c,~c. 1 .332.974 DEC 20 1985 6Jt4..{(EU.E1S 'Oerical computer jobs go overseas By John Hillkirk USA TODAY 6 )-07 '7 Cheap labor Is drawing thousands of the USA's computer related clerical jobs overseas, a study released today warns. In" Automation of America's Offices," the C,9.~oil.8.1 Of tl.ce o( 1'echnology ~ent said: At least 12 USA companies have set up data-procESing operations. employing 2,300, in four Caribbean countries. India, South America, and the Far East have dozens more. Typically, the offshore workers perform clerical, word or data-processing chores. In many instances, hard copy Is tlown from the United States to offshore sites to be keypunched into computerized form. "Some of the United States' biggest data bases, like Lexis (a computerized legal library), are being created overseas," said Vary Coates, project direc tor for the 348-page report. The shift will cause USA women and minorities, as well as some lower-and mid-level managers, to lose jobs. The reason: It cosls USA 4rms up to 75% 15 to have such work done overseas. (In the Far East, clerical workers make 15 than $15 a week.) The president of one USA ti.rm said it would cost $65 to keypunch 10,000 characters into computers in the USA The same job would cost $7 to $10 in India, and the quality is higher. Eventually, electronic scanners that read, then type, a page will replace such offshore clerical work. But that won't be for 10 or 15 years, Coates said. -~~!..;-~"'~ -~-..; \. -~ ... ... \,.~<,. _;; -" 1'': r ~: -~ ,... : -
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ALLENTOWN, P~ CALL D. 129,469 SAT. 132,250 DEC 21 1985 /!~'t.~: BUSINESS (Office jobs may be lost to automation, researchers say By PETE YOST Of The Associated Press 0~ 1 I 'L WASHINGTON (AP) Office employment may de cline in the 1990s because the latest phase of the computer revolution is automating so much white-collar work, a con gressional research group concludes in a new study. In a 348-page report being issued yesterday, the Office of Technolofiy Assessment prJ?dicted that the dominant trends m once automation over the next 15 years among the nation's 45 million office workers will be a steady in crease in the use of small computers and the widespread linkup of computer systems. The result will be large increases in worker produc tivity that could reduce the demand for clerical workers, and could eliminate some jobs in the ranks of top profes sionals and midand low-level managers, said the report, "Automation of America's Offices." The report, prepared for the House and Senate Labor committees, said the federal government has consistently underestimated the speed and scope of technological change now sweeping the workplace. "At present, the federal government is poorly equipped to detect or understand early signals of problems arising from structural changes in the economy related to technology," it added. "The critical question for Congress "is ... how to im prove the capability of the federal government to under stand, and thus be prepared to respond to, technological and structural changes that are occurring in the United States and other advanced industrial nations." The study said the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics "probably greatly underestimated the effects of new information technologies now in use, and largely ignored impending developments in those technologies .... BLS projections of employment have historically been insensitive to emerging technological change." The latest BLS employment projections for the next decade show a slowdown in growth in the nation's 20 mil lion clerical employees, the nation's largest group of work ers. Those projections do not go past 1995. Ronald E. Kutscher, associate commissioner of the BLS who is in charge of all work on projections, responded that independent research has concluded that his agency is not underestimating the pace of technological change. "Admittedly, the bureau at the present time has a very small program called technology studies ... in which we do look at new technologies and their effect on employ ment," Kutscher added. The latest BLS employment projec tions for the next decade show a slowdown in growth in the nation's 20 million clerical employees, the na tion's largest group of workers. Those projections do not go past 1995. He said that frequently, productivity increases due to automation are offset at least In part by increases in volume of work produced and. a mail!tenance of employment levels. ; The congressional study predicted that within five years, there may be one computer terminal for every three office workers. By the turn of the century, according to the 15-year scenario outlined in the study, computer ter minals are likely to be as commonplace as telephones, with telephones and video display terminals often com bined in one piece of equipment. Many more workers are expected to work out of their homes and some low-wage clerical jobs such as typing in formation on keyboards into computer systems could be shipped to foreign countries, the report said. In addition, using computers may simplify tasks, thus increasing the ability of businesses to hire lower-paid part-time and temporary workers who need a minimum amount of training and experience, it suggested. An estimated 30,000 Americans probably do some paid work at home now using microelectronic equipment, and proponents of the idea say 15 million office workers could do so in the future. However, the report said office automation also could significantly reduce the need for low-level data-entry jobs. Keyboarding data into computer systems, for example, is a function many upper-level workers now are beginning to perform for themselves on desk-top computers. The even tual outcome could be a decline in home-based work and offshore data entry. "The most likely outcome of office automation in terms of office employment is slowing growth over the next decade, and possibly a decline in office employment thereafter," the study said. "As organizations gain experience in automating cleri cal work, they are likely to turn their attention to auto mating the tasks of managers and professionals." The study said automation has special significance for the 2 million office workers in the federal government, where technological change is "generally keeping pace with automation in the private sector." Since 1975, there has been a slight rise among federal workers in average grade levels, which, among other things, determine pay. The new study said automation has resulted in a smaller proportion of clerical workers, con tributing significantly to the increase in grades.
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EVENING JOURNAL WILMINGTON. oe 0. "~,(1"1. n ---,,. -, ''\ r / 1 1 \ ..,, l BU~EU.FS The challenge of automation for office force CL,~.r-1'1 -:r-,.,.;'j1-~' By THE YEAR 2000, compu'te-r terminals may be as commonplace on office desks as telephones are today. That prediction comes from Congress' Office of Technology Assessment and carries with it senoiisiiifpTi~ catfonsforffielaborTorce-:-. Automation, the OTA report says, shortens. the time it takes for office tasks by 15 percent to 85 percent and "it even eliminates the need for people to perform some tasks." Automation has already improved productivity and is expected to continue to do so and the effect will be cumula tive. This will slow the growth in office employment today more than 40 percent of American workers do office work and will eventually lead to a decline in the need for office workers. Among the industries likely to experience the biggest changes in employment patterns are banking and insur ance major employers in Delaware. Decline in office jobs is just one problem resulting from progress in automation. Computers and their link-ups also make possible the shifting of data entry operations to lowlabor cost areas. This can happen within the United States, but it can also transfer work to other countries. Already workers in the Caribbean countries as well as Latin America are performing some computer tasks for U.S. companies. Clearly that can hurt the American clerical work force just as much as automobile workers have been hurt by successful competition from Japan. Technological advances also are increasing home-based clerical employment, with advantages for young mothers as well as disadvantages as far as work-related fringe benefits are concerned. The OTA report about the effects of automation on office employment was requested by Congress. Clearly, the effects will be momentous. The challenge to Congress, employers and employees is to prepare for these changes so as to 1 minimize detrimental effects on society. _, ~;~!,;-~~rc ,.i~,. ~" : ---,./ 1' ~ "'
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BAKER SF I ELD. CA L.A. BAY NEWS ~!S~~n { B) COMB, Cl RC. MAR 71986 !l!t.i~ ------Weekly report L : ,...\ -1 \~ By Ccngrc.s .,man ,J-'<.1shaycJn, Jr. "Automation of America's Olticb. lY85-2000," a report released recently by the Offict" .-,f Tcc@o9lon" c'ISt'ffiSnt. has predkted that by the Year 2000 <.omputer tc>rminals in offices will be as common as telephones. Requested by th~ Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources and the House Committee on Education and Labor, the study focused on the pace of office automation, workplace changes anticipated as a result of automation, and the effects of office automation on employment produc tivity. and employee health. During the past century, office work has been the fastest growing industry sector in the United States. and today forty to forty five percent of the employed work in offices. Twenty percent of of fice workers are clerical workers and twenty-five percent belong to managerial or professional staffs. The automation study has re vealed that the number of office workers entering the work force is slowing, a trend that is predicted to continue over the next decade, with a decline in the level of office employment becoming evidence sometime in the 1990's. The study makes clear that the employment outcome is uncer tain. Although office automation may eliminate some office jobs, a decrease in labor costs, combined with increases in productivity, the demand for information, and economic growth could boost of fice employment figures. The report identifies the dominant trends in office automation to be: ... an increase in the 11sc-u; small computers as a supplement to centralized automatic data processing; ... networking by linking microcomputers, minicomputers,. mainframes, and peripheral and sc,pporting systems; ... a change in the role of computer professionals from a con troller of information to a provide roof support to general users; ... machine communication bet ween locations and between organizations, decreasing ihe need for translations of data from one media to another by workers; ... a choice among many technological alternatives for information-handling; ... increased capability of computers of all sizes; and ... declining costs of computer use. Taken together, these trends point to more than a shift of tasks from workers to computers. They amount to a reorganization of office work. Clerical positions will undergo the greatest change as a result of the reorganization, according lo the report. Some of these positions will become simpler and more repetitive'. arid others 'will be .>roadened, requiring new skills. A decline in the number of supervisors is predicted to follow a drop in clerical positions. Computers will reduce the time required by tasks such as collecting, for mating, and data presentation. Part-time and temporary positions are expected to continue to increase with the availability of home computers and are attractive options for workers who with to remain at home. Businesses in creasingly are open to these arrangements due to the cost-cutting possibilities. Part-time and t~mporary workers often are not pro vided benefit packages. Businesses also appreciate the added flex ibility to adjust to changes in the demand for their services. Automation raises several problems that may involve proposed legislation. The report has recommended that the long-term effects of computer visual display terminals (YDTsl on health continue to be monitored and investigated. ,\ warning was sounded that ex isting privacy and security legislation may not provide sufficient protections of data in decentralized computer processing, The possibility of the disruption of routine government operations and private sector economic activities by power outages. storms, and natural disasters when records are stored on microelectronic disks rather than paper was raised. The report on the automation of America's offices is important to those who work in offices.' to those who are preparing for work in the future, for businesses, and for Congress. Office workers com prise almost half of the workforce in the United States. The pro bability of changes in employment opportunities that have been wide open to those entering the work force for aver a century needs to be addressed. Although the widest avenue to a job may be narrowing, other avenues are opening up, and it is important that schools) parents. and students be aware of 11-..'1.v trends so that they may pursue alternative job goals anc_! ;)n.:p..iratlon. Many schools, from the college level down to the ek1nenwry kvel. have added computer courses to their regular curriculc.:. Businesses need to be aware of the employment trends that arc predicted in order to carefully select among the options available to them. Congress must be aware of employment trends in order to take corrective ac tion, if necessary. The automation of America's offices will be beneficial. Job planning and business planning have never been more important. With proper planning, the numbers of people who will benefit from the technological explosion will grow.
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OFFICE STANFORD, CT MONTHLY 143600 MAR/01/1986 Bunqn~rs WASHINGTON REPORT One View of Offic~ Automation's Impact Just when Congress began grappling with the harsh realities of the Gramm-Rudman budget-balancing law, a seemingly low priority concern flashed briefly and then vanished. The concern was expressed in a report by the Office ofTechnologi Assessment ( OT A(0Iromcaliy, U l A !S an arm-, of Congress, and its report, "Automation of America's Offices," was produced at that body's request. Even so, the report received scant attention, and like count less others churned out in the capital, was soon filed and forgotten. That could prove to be a costly error, at least in the long run. What the report says, in a nutshell, is that there is a 50-50 chance that the growth in the number of office jobs will falter and even re verse. If so, government policy-makers are unlikely to intervene in a timely fash ion because "the federal government is poorly equipped to detect or understand early signals of problems arising from structural changes in the economy re. lated to technology." In making its evaluation of the effects of office automation, OT A deliberately chose a perspective of 15 years because, it says, "Congress will be concerned less with ephemeral effects and transitional problems than with long-range structural changes." These changes, the agency be lieves, will gain visibility as office auto mation becomes more widely adopted and its full capabilities are recognized. It's no secret, of course, that the pace of office automation is accelerating rapidly. The OTA says that by the mid1990s nearly every office will have at least one computer, resulting in a signifi cant reduction in the number of employ ees needed for a given volume of infor mation-handling. A similar reduction in especially those predominantly involv ing data entry, is also seen by OT A. If the OT A's intent was to light a fire under Congress regarding its long-range view on how automation will affect overall office employment, it went about it in a leisurely manner. For example, as if to reassure the readers that no crisis such as massive unemployment is im pending, the report's authors calmly note that "as yet, electric typewriters have not completely eliminated mechanical type writers." While this is doubtless true, one cannot help but wonder what sort of offices the authors have visited of lateand where. In any case, the 348-page study raises enough far-reaching issues to render its observation about typewriters irrelevant. The main problem, though, is simply stated: With the U.S. labor force con tinually growing, and with the propor tion of blue-collar workers steadily declining, will there be enough white., __ '-'-~~~~ o.-nnnrf if the nroductivity increases made possible by automa tion continue at their current pace? The OT A study never really comes to grips with the question; certainly not in the sense of making any estimates that policy-makers can sink their teeth into. But even when it deals in generalities, the report makes some important and thought-provoking observations. For example, it points out that, while a large proportion of the work in today's offices involves putting data into computers, much of this work is likely to be elimi nated in future. Thus, according to OT A, the outlook for computer technol ogy represents a critical determinant of the results of office automation for the next 15 years. Already, private sector companies and government agencies at all levels are seeking methods of avoiding the need for keyboarding data more than once. lf that happens, the study says, both the number of jobs dedicated to data entry and the costs of handling it will decline dramatically, obviously reducing the number of jobs available for a growing workforce. Nevertheless, OTA does offer sugges tions that might prove beneficial-if they are heeded. For example, the report says that existing job training programs now focused on blue-collar workers could be redirected toward office workers. An other possibility is shared work compen sation, also known as voluntary reduced work time. This calls for state legislation to allow payment of partial unemploy ment compensation to workers when companies choose to reduce, rather than lay off employees. What in OT A's opinion is needed now are better monitoring mechanisms to im prove Congress' ability to take effective action. ID]
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MACHINIST WASHINGTON, D.C. MONTHLY 960,000 DE~g~t~s-5 --j fSaletv and Health (;;{J_C,1 t If the statistics weren't so grim, fewer workers were employed. the Reagan administration could retire the trophy for putting the Exploited workers best face possible on the worst possible situation. Latest evidence comes from a Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) finding that job-related deaths, in juries and illnesses increased dramatically in 1984. labor Secretary William E. Brock attributed part of the in crease in injuries and illnesses to the increase in the number of people working, more hours em ployed and the increase in less experienced workers who tend to have more accidents. However, the BlS said that the 11. 7 percent rise in injuries and illnesses "was considerably higher than the 6.6 percent increase in hours of exposure which resulted from increased empfoyment and hours during the second year of the current eco nomic recovery." When reports two years earlier reflected a decline in job injuries, this same Labor Department crowed that Reagan's policies were reponsible-neglecting to mention those reports were drawn from the depths of the Reagan Recession when far /\ And this is the same Labor Sec retary who refused to push for clean drinking water and sanitary facilities for those exploited farm workers who harvest the fruits and vegetables for our tables. The BLS found an 11. 7% in crease in job injuries and ill nesses and 640 more workplace deaths in 1984, a clear demon stration that Reagan's "get gov ernment off our backs" policies aren't working. The statistics confirm that those policies of weak enforce ment and deregulation do not and cannot and do not protect work ers. Indeed, health and safety problems throughout American industry are getting worse. The number of occupational in juries and illnesses rose to 5.4 million in 1984 from 4.9 million a year earlier. Workplace deaths in creased to 3,740 from 3,100. Brock said he was "deeply concerned and disturbed" by the BlS report. He said the statistics indi cate the need to "reexamine, re evaluate and redouble our efforts" '-Reagan policies increase job hazards in the Occupational Safety and Health Administration. Reagan-appointed OSHA offi cials had credited their "non-ad versary" approach to job safety and health, and its emphasis on voluntary employer programs, for the decline in injury and illness rates from 1980 to 1983. But a report last April by the congressional Office of T ~chrigl99t.A~!:t~srn~!1~ ~aid the _lower rates were causea primarily by the recession. Injury rate OT A analyst Karl Kronebusch said, "Now that the injury rate is up again, the labor Dept. has re discovered the connection be tween business activity and the injury rate." BLS said that one-fourth of the estimated 3,740 work-related deaths in private industry estab lishments with 11-or more em ployees in 1984 resulted from car and truck accidents on the road. The remainder were caused by heart attacks, falls, accidents with industrial vehicles, electrocutions and other causes. The rate of job injury and illness in 1984 was 8.0 incidents per 100 "\ full-time workers, up from a 7 .6 rate in 1983. The number of incidences of in juries and illnesses serious enough to result in lost workdays was 3.7 per 100 workers in 1984, up from 3.4 in 1983. The number of incident-related lost workdays rose to 63.4 per 100 full-time workers in 1984 from 58.5 in 1983. Job-related injuries occurred at a rate of 7.8 per 100 full-time workers, up from a low of 7 .5 in 1983. Injury rates rose over the year in all industry divisions ex cept agriculture, which remained unchanged at 11.5, and finance, insurance and real estate, also unchanged at 1.9 and the lowest rate for all industry divisions. As usual, the construction in dustry proved the most danger ous, with injury rates rising to 15.4 in 1984 from 14.7 in 1983. Rates also rose in all other major sectors, manufacturing from 9.7 in 1983 to 10.2 in 1984; mining,_ from 8.3 to 9.5; transpor tation and public utilities, from 8.1 to 8.6; wholesale and retail trade, from 7 .2 to 7.4; and services, from 4.9 to 5.0 The number of injuries rose to 5.3 million in 1984 from 4. 7 million in 1983. BLS said that the goods producing sector accounted for about 60 percent of the increase. The increase in mining injuries was primarily in oil and gas ex traction. In construction, the rise was mostly among general build ing and special trade contractors. Manufacturing injury increases were mostly in fabricated metal products, machinery, electrical and electronic equipment and transportation equipment. New illnesses The number of injuries in the services-producing sector rose by about 237,000 in 1984, with about 60 percent of the increase in trucking and warehousing, air transportation, durable goods wholesale trade, food stores, eat ing and drinking places, hotels and motels, and business serv ices. BlS said about 124,800 new occupational illnesses were re corded in 1984, almost 18 percent more than in 1983. Skin diseases and disorders associated with re peated trauma, such as noise-in duced hearing loss and condi tions related to repeated motion, pressure or vibrati9n, accounted for three of every five recorded illnesses. --
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BATAVIA, OH CLERMONT SUN W, 6,800 DEC 1 8 1985 Bu(l._~'S _Zi,_J_eh-yy-w-~;Ifmg day there are about 25 deaths due to injuries at work. This adds up to 6,000 deaths annually. Each working day, there are also 10,000 injuries that result in Jost time, and 45,000 others that result in restricted adivity or require medical attention. These disturbing figures are taken from a recent study by the .....Qffi~~-. of.. ',!'~c:hnolo,Q Assessment lD"TAf, an agency ~r ih~Congress, entitled "Preventing Illness and Injury in the Workplace." The OTA study highlights the action ,,.,,,.Sat ety at work that is needed to increase awareness of work-related illnesses and injuries and to develop ways to reduce them. Since Congress passed the Occupational Safety and Health Act in 1970, it has been the ambitious task of the two agencies it created, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, and the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health t;) ... assure so far as is possible every working man and wonian in the nation safe and healthful working condi tions." OT A produced its report to evaluate progress toward that goal. Prevention, OT A con cludes, is one of the most effective weapons against occupational accidents (which cost American industry more than $33 billion during 1983 alone). But while controls for health and safety are often developed for specific workplaces, fre quently they are not dis seminated from one firm to another. Programs to educate both workers and health and safety professionals are rarely evaluated, yet such an evaluation is clearly necessary to know about their effect. It is also import~; that'-: larger firms emphasize their commitment to the control of work-related injury and illness by ensuring that their top managers are well educated. Increased knowledge of workplace hazards and improved controls provide the best means for protecting health and safety standards. There needs to be self-motivated action at the workplace to increase awareness of potentiald hazards and provide the medium through which to share these experiences. Government and private agen cies can and should do more to provide information -11bottt workplace hazards ancl con trols. Labor representatives should insist on tough standards, and the employer representatives, especially health and safety profes sionals, must accept the need for them. Only with input and support from all sides will it be possible to fulfill the aim of the Occupational Safety and Health Act of 1970, to reduce the unnecessary number of mJuries, and thus make America's workplaces as safe as possible. __ __
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SEATTLE WA POST-INTELLIGENCER D. 191,825 SAT, 183,03! DEC 26 1985 study shows no reliable evidence of reproductive risk in workplace By Victor Ostrowldzkl Hearst News and Feature Service \.J)')_q-, j WASHINGTON -A congres sional studv contends that cur rentlv there are no reliable esti mates of the basic measures of reproductive risk in the workplace the number of workers exposed to such hazards. their levels of exj)OQU'e and the toxicity of the agents to which they are exposed." In a bulky studv, the Office of Tecbnolorx Awmeot1UTA1 ,ays this "uncertainty about both causes and effect:$ compli cates the efforts to protect em ployees from workplace hazards to tlteir reproductive health." Although the rapid influx ot women in to the labor force has h.rightened concern that work place hazards may impair their aliility to bear healthy children, male workers may be at risk of hann to their reproductive capac ity." the study by the scientific advisory panel to Congress asserts. Evidence inconclusive According to medical studies. reproductive dysfunction has been a "ignificant health problem in the United States. Unintentional in fertility affects more than eight percent of couples of childbearing age and various congenital malformations are dia!lllosed in i percent of ail U.S. infants. However. scien ti8t- have heen unable to deter mine whether and to what extent reproductive health impairment results from exposure to harmful agents in the workplace. "OTA found that evidence linking specific agents with repro ductive or developmental effects in humans is, for the most part. inconclusive." the studv ,.;avs. The government currently regulates four hazards, in part, be cause of their known effects on adult reproductive capacity: ioniz ing radiation. lead. ethylene oxide and dibromochloropropane. Others agents a&'IOCiated in varying degrees with impairement of reproductive function include such chemicals as nonionizing rad,iation, physical factors, includin~ hot and cold environments. noise and vibration; infectious agent,,. ,i_lcohol and tobacco use. certain cl-rugs and overexertion and stress. Among the factors complicat111 g the study, OTA says, are "individual variations in suseepti bili ty to suspeded agent-~. difficul ties in extrapolating information trom animal studies. and incom plete data on the agents, their /lO&~ible toxic effects. and the number ot workers exposed to them. To protect the health of work ers and their children, OTA sug gests that Congress require employers to allow workers to leave hazardous jobs temporarily without economic !OHS, instruct regula tory agencies to be more willing to assume that an exposure is dangerous when only a small number of studies suggest this and add specific provisions to workers' compensation systems to cover reproductive health or amend laws to provide the right to sue for injuries not compensated. The National Commission for Employment Policy will hold hearings ,Jan. 9 in New York City to identify promising programs for teaching ba.sic acad~mic skills to dropouts. "The link hetween basic aca demic skills reading, writing, math and communication skills a'nd succ= in the job market is clear... said Gertrude C. McDonald. chairman. "We are com ing to New York City because of its many promising efforts to address the needs of young adults." ,Justice and Transportation Departments are investigating aJ. leged abuses in the Disadvantaged Business Enterprise Program which received $1.7 billion from federally funded projects of the Federal Highway and Urban Mass' Transportation Administrations. The program is directed at rucsur ing disadvantaged business enter prises a share in the contracting of government supported projects. Schemes, variations .Joseph P. Welsch, DOT's in ;;pector general. said investigation "ill he directed toward prosecut ing non-disadvantaged prime contractors who are abusing the program. This is being done. he said. iw having mmoritv-owned com pant es "front.. for non-disad vantaged firms, or legitimate disadvantage busineMeS who are used as "brokers"' for "pass through" subcontracts to non-disadvan taged fuma. ''The number of schemes and variations, including the use of the name of disadvantaged businesses without their knowledge or con f'ent. is limited only by the ingenu it.v of the perpetrator ... Welsch said. The inspector general said criminal violations have included false statements. false claims, pe~jury, mail fraud, wire fraud. con spiracy, antitrust violations and extortion. Because of the potential for abuses in this multibillion dollar program. the Fraud Section of the Criminal Division, ,Justice Depart ment. is taking measures to ensure that all substantive criminal viola tions receive full prOHeCutive considerations," he added. Anyone with knowledge of fraud in the program is a,ked to call the !G's toll-free Hotline at 800-424-9071. Callers may be anonymous and may request that their identity be protected. A National Academv of Sci ences studv concludes that women have been effectively shut out of many kinds of jobs and "segregat ed" into lower-paying occupations largely because of discriminatory barriers, rather than their own choices. Roughly ,jO million women were employed last year. about 43 percent of the l'.S. tabor force, with half of them working in job categori,-,; that are at lea;;t 80 percent lema!e and that usuall ,v have lower pay and benefits than similar jobs held by th~ir male counterparts. The l i3-page report. described as the most comprehensive study of"sex ~egregation" in the nation's workplace~. attacks the Reagan adrninistration fnr decreasing en~ torcement ot a(firmati,e ,1ction regulations that the ,tudv said have helped to hreak down those barriers for women. The studv is likelv to be us.>d in the fights over goal;; and timetables for affirmative 8cnon and over "pay l'1'.jUitv" whose supporters contend that wage~ or female jobs should be hiked. even if government is required to .,tep in to mandate it. The studv. however. does not endor.se "com parable worth" pav.
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TILE SACRAMENTO HEE SACRAMENTO, C/\Llf-. D. 221,410 SUN. 255,691 OEr, /j 198~ !J'V1/f~~L~~ ~~:,~G~~'fjJc.~~a'.~.:.~.:1~~v=~ over on-the-job health hazards has ist." tion and the health of a fetus can be Jed to discrimination against women Laying out the issues for Congress threatened by many hazardous of childbearing age, a report to Con-without drawing any firm concluagents including various chemi gress says. despite a lack of reliable sions. the report said not enough is cals, radiation, heat and cold. noise, information about workplace risks yet known of tile health hazards infections. and "aspects of lifestyle to reproduction. posed by radiation from computer such as tobacco and alcohol ... cerThe Office of Technology ~s.stss terminals and by exposure to vari-tain drugs ... and overexertion and f!il!.11~, which advises Congress on ous chemicals on the job. stress." complPx and technical matters. said "What is known about reproducWhile making no direct recomprotecling the reproductive ,health live health hazards is far outweighed mendations, the report suggested of American workers not only helps by what is unknown," it said. several options for consideration by lhem but also safeguards future gen-It suggested that one reason is for Congress in dealing with protection crations the uncertainty is that much of the of reproductive health including Nontheless, efforts to protect information available is hased on an-doing nothing. workers arc leading to sex discrimi-imal studies and may not necessarily Another possibility is to prohibit nation through the exclusion of preg-apply lo human beings. restrictions applying only to women nant women and women in their "There are consequently no reli-unless '-Cientific evidence shows ehildbearing years from some jobs, able estimates as yet of the hasic there are no effects on the reproduc the 400-piige report. "Reproductive measurPs of reproductive risk in the live health of men. Also listed as an Health Risks in the Workplace," workplace the number of workers option was requiring employers with said. exposl'd lo such hazards. their levels unproven but suspected hl'alth hazlt added I hat such discrimination of exposure, and the toxicity of the ants to fully inform workers of them has been upheld by the courts "if sciagents to whkh they are exposed," and to let them decide whdhcr to enlifically justified and if less dis-It is clear. however. that both stay on the job.
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THE JOURNAL OF COMMERCE NEW YORK, NV o. '20,975 DEC 23 1985 gg._lJ.J.fl / --( Congressional Report Urges R_eproductive Health Sal ety WASHINGTON Employers and policymakers must try to ensure the workplace is as safe as possible for the reproductive health of men and women, even though scientific data is sketchy, a congressional report said. The report, prepared for Congress by the OJfice of T~chnology Assess ment, outlined current scientific literature about the effect of chemicals on reproduction and presented options for Congress. Although it is often difficult to determine a cause-and-effect rela tionship between the workplace and infertility, the report said, an esti mated 2.4 million couples in which the wife is of childbearing age are unintentionally. infertile. That repre sents 8.4 percent of American cou ples. A major problem, the report said, is the scarcity of information. "What is known about reproduc tive health hazards is far outweighed by what is unknown," the report said, adding: "Most commercial chemicals and physical factors have not been thoroughly evaluated for their possible toxic effects on repro duction and development." Nonetheless, a variety of sub stances are known to harm the re productive health of men or women. To date, four health hazards ionizing radiation, lead, ethylene oxide and dibromochloropropane are regulated in part because of their effects on reproductive or pro creative capacity, the report said. There are two laws generally involved in such regulation. They are: the Occupational Safety and Health Act, which gives the government the authority to protect workers to the extent feasible from exposure to substances that would damage their reproductive health, and the Civil Rights Act that prohib its employment discrimination on the basis or sex or pregnancy. While policymakers and employ ers may never have complete infor mation, the report said, ''they must attempt to provide as safe a work place as feasible." That task involves adequate engineering at the work place, administrative controls to keep exposure at its lowest level and education programs. The 422-page report also detailed various workers' compensation laws on the subject and employees legal rights. Lawmakers, the report said, have a range of options on the issue, including requiring companies to pro vide education to employees and allowing workers to remove themselves from jobs that involve exposure to chemicals suspected of damaging reproductive health. (AP)
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THE PHOENIX GAZETTE PHOENIX, AZ D. 105.630 DEC ?.O 1985 Bu(t~ Health rules mi!:Jht hurt women,:study Says' lo '),!A. f\-\ By Elmer W. Lammi And when protective measures are implethe report said. ll:1!ted Press ln~rnaiional mented in the work place and fail, labor laws in WASHING I ON -F~fforts to chromate most states prohibit workers from being compcn. I he r~por_t said that m_uch of tl_w available "reproductive health hazards" in the work place sated for reproductive impairment and from~ mformat10n _is based on animal st!3d1cs and m~y arc a step in the right direction, but they also can suing their employers, the report said. not necessarily apply to human bemgs. lead to job discrimination against women, a report to Congress says. The report by the Qffi~e of Technology A~~essmen~1 which advises Congress on such matters, says steps to protect the reproductive health of working men and women benefit not only employees but future generations as well. The 422-page report, "Reproductive Health Hazards in the Workplace," was prepared by OTA researchers with the help of an advisory panel made up of experts from the academic world, industry, trade associations, labor unions and public interest groups. But the study, released Thursday, also said The study also warned that not enough such efforts lead to sex discrimination by reliable evidence is available to determine the excluding pregnant women and women of 'health hazards posed by radiation from com. childbearing age from certain jobs. putcr terminals and by exposure to various. Such discrimination, it said, has been upheld chemicals on the job. by the courts if it is "scientifically justified and if "What is known about reproductive health less discriminatory alternatives do not exist." hazards is far outweighed by what is unknown," "There are consequently no reliable estimates as yet of the basic measures of reproductive risk in the workplace the number of workers exposed to such hazards, their levels of exposure,, and the toxicity of the agents to which they are exposed," it said. The report cited hazardous working condi tions that can threaten both male and female reproductive systems and the health of an; unborn child, including radiation, extreme heat and cold, noise and "aspects of lifestyle such as tobacco and alcohol ... certain drugs ... and overexertion and stress." -~--:,-
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UBRARY OUICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES WASHll\!QTON, D. C. 20510
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