9207.pdf

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Quarterly Report Off ice of Tech no logy Assessment LIBRARY OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSME l CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES ASHIN TON, D. C. 20510 April 1-June 30, 1986 ARCHIVES COPY DO NOT REMOVE FROM LIBRARY CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES 1 z Office of Technology Assessment l Washington D C. 20510 o.., ~,. ~C'Jt!WOL()C,I ~'>

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Office of Technology Assessment Congressional Board of the 99th Congress TED STEVENS, Alaska Chairman MORRIS K. UDALL, Arizona Vice Chairman Senate ORRIN G HATCH Utah CHARLES McC. MATHIAS, JR. Maryland EDWARD M. KENNEDY Massachusetts ERNEST F HOLLINGS South Carolina CLAIBORNE PELL Rhode Island WILLIAM J PERRY, Chairman H&Q Technology Partner s DAVID S POTTER Vice Chairman Gener a l Motors Corp ( Ret.) EARL BEISTLINE Consultant CHARLES A. BOWSHER General Accounting Office JOHN H GIBBONS ( Nonvoting) Advisory Council House GEORGE E. BROWN, JR. California JOHN D. DINGELL Michigan CLARENCE E. MILLER Ohio COOPER EVANS Iowa DON SUNDQUIST Tennessee CLAIRE T DEDRICK California Land Commission MICHEL T. HALBOUTY Michel T. Halbouty Energ y Co (Vacancy) S. DAVID FREEMAN Lower Colorado River Authority JOSEPH E. ROSS Congre s sion a l Research Ser v ice Director JOHN H. GIBBONS CARL N. HODGES University of Arizona RACHEL McCULLOCH Universit y of Wisconsin LEWIS THOMAS Memorial Sloan-Ketterin g Cancer Center

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I. DIRECTOR'S STATEMENT CONTENTS ........................................ Page 1 II. COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS A. Summary of FY '85 Completions, Ongoing Work in FY '86, and New Starts Through June 30, 1986 ........... 2 B. Products Delivered During the Quarter 1. Formal Assessment Reports 3 2. Other: Technical Memoranda, Background Papers, Staff Papers or Letter Memoranda, Workshop Proceedings, and Committee Prints 6 3. Testimony. . . . . . 9 C. Other Communication with Congress 1. Briefings, Presentations, Workshops 10 2. Informal Discussions --Topics 12 D. Projects in Process as of 6/30/86 (including formal assessments, responses to TAB, and Committee requests) 1. Descriptions and Requester(s) 15 A. In Press as of 6/30/86 16 B. In Progress as of 6/30/86 18 E. New Assessments Approved During the Quarter 44 III. PUBLICATION BRIEFS OF FORMAL ASSESSMENTS DELIVERED IV. SELECTED NEWS CLIPS ON OTA PUBLICATIONS AND ACTIVITIES LIBRARY OEFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES WP.SHINGTON, D. C. 205 lO

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-1 -I. DIRECTOR'S STATEMENT A. National Awards to OTA. I am delighted to report that during the quarter OTA received two awards: one from a commercial/industrial/ academic biotechnology organization; and one from our peers in the International Association for Impact Assessment: 1) The American Prize in Biotechnology, from the American Commercial and Industrial Conference and Exposition in Biotechnology, for outstanding technology services. OTA received the prize for overall contributions to the biotechnology community. According to the advisory board, "OTA, more than any other office, agency or department within the U.S. government, has provided leadership at critical stages in the development of domestic biotechnology and has catalyzed further research, development and commercialization." 2) The Rose-Hulman Award for Outstanding Achievement in the Field of Impact Assessment, from the International Association for Impact Assessment. B. Appointment of the Physician Payment Review Commission. OTA has again been called upon to act for Congress by appointing a broadly representative and expert commission on reimbursement of physicians under Medicare. The commission will make recommendations to Congress and also to the Secretary of Health and Human Services concerning such issues as needed adjustments to allowed charges and development of a relative value scale. During the quarter, I appointed the first Commission, while pointing out that the allowed number of members (11) severely contrains the extent to which all important perspectives can be directly represented. C. CRS Seminar on How Congress Works. Many OTA staffers have had little formal education or direct experience in the detailed processes of Congress. But our capability to be helpful to Committees depends, in part, on how well we understand the realities and dynamics of the legislative branch. During the quarter, several experts from the Congressional Research Service provided OTA staff with two days of intensive learning about the intricacies of that complicated and exquisite institution. All who attended (including myself) felt that it was an extremely valuable experience and that CRS had provided its sister agency a very important service.

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II -2 -COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS A. Summarz of FY '85 Completions, Ongoing Work June 30, 1986 FY '85 Products Released Total Formal Assessments 17 Other Special Reports 2 Report Supplements 2 Technical Memoranda 5 Background Papers, Case Studies, or Workshop Proceedings 11 Testimony 24 Staff Memos or Letter Memoranda 20 Administrative Documents 7 New Projects Approved by TAB Assessments 6 Other (Scope Changes; Special Responses Over 30K) 5 ~rejects in Process as of June 30, 1986 1. In Press Assessments 2 Other (TM's, Background Papers, etc.) 6 3. In Progress Assessments Other 26 23 1n FY 186, and New Starts Through FY 186 Ql Q2 Q4 4 5 4 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 3 3 7 8 8 11 5 12 0 2 2 4 4 3 0 1 1

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-3 -II. COMMUNICATION WITH CONGRESS B. Products Released During the Quarter 1. Formal Assessment Reports WESTERN SURFACE MINE PERMITTING AND RECLAMATION --In the seven years since enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA), coal companies have made significant improvements in reclamation technologies and methodologies, and the prospects for the suc~ess of surface mine reclamation have brightened. Yet considerable doubts still exist among most parties in the surface mining debate as to the ability to reclaim certain types of land or mitigate particular types of impacts. In particular, concerns have been raised about the costs of, and the short-and long-term prospects for, revegetation and reclamation on lands with: limited precipitation and/or high evapotranspiration rates, slopes exceeding 40 percent, a lack of adequate topsoil material, saline or alkali soil structures (or sodic conditions resulting from lack of topsoil), or a high potential for wind erosion. Debate also continues on the most successful methods for mitigating impacts to the hydrologic regime, to archaeological and paleontological sites, and to wildlife resources. This study assesses the effectiveness of current mining and reclamation technologies and methodologies, and the fairness and effectiveness of Federal programs and policies, in fulfilling the statutory mandates for environmental protection on Federal lands in the West. Methods for evaluating the success of reclamation practices, including the levels and kinds of uncertainty, were studied, as were the relative costs and benefits of various reclamation techniques. An important part of the study is an evaluation of the techniques for reclaiming abandoned mined lands. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs Hon. Morris K. Udall, Chairman Project Director: Jenifer Robison, 6-2134 TECHNOLOGY AND INDIAN HEALTH CARE: EFFECTIVENESS, ACCESS, AND EFFICIENCY --Despite some improvement, the health status of American Indians and Alaska Natives remains substantially below that of the general U.S. population. Because of the Federal Government's special responsibilities for the delivery and financing of health care for nearly one million of the 1.5 million Indians in the U.S., Congress continues to be concerned about the quality, appropriateness, accessibility, and financing of such care. This project is a comprehensive examination of health technologies and services provided to Indians and of whether those technologies and services are appropriate and adequate in view of the health problems of Indians. The assessment: 1) analyzes the quality and adequacy of data on Indian health status, including trends over time,

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-4 -2) identifies the types and distribution of technologies and services available through the Indian Health Service and other providers, 3) determines the desirable range and methods of delivery of health-related technologies and services, given our conclusions on health status, and compare this range to the current situation, and 4) develops policy options to improve the selection, provision, financing, and delivery of technologies and service~ to Indian populations. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chairman Hon. Henry A. Waxman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment Senate Select Committee on Indian Affairs Hon. Mark Andrews, Chairman Hon. John Melcher, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Morris K. Udall, Vice Chairman, Technology Assessment Board (expression of interest) Project Director: Larry Miike, 6-2070 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY: ELECTRONIC RECORDS SYSTEMS AND INDIVIDUAL PRIVACY --(This report is one component of the OTA assessment of Federal Government Information Technology: Congressional Oversight and Civil Liberties.) The U.S. government, already a major user of computerized information systems and other information technology, is at the threshold of a major transition to the next generation of this technology. For example, the number of federal computer systems is expected to increase from about 18,000 in 1983 to between 300,000 and one million in 1990. Current government use of these technologies has already generated questions about their impacts on government; the dramatically increased future use will further affect government administration, provision of public information, civil liberties, and the balance of power among branches and levels of government. This study evaluates computer and communication technologies relevant to government information systems, profiles current and evolving federal systems, and assesses the impacts and policy implications of such systems in key areas of concern to Congress. The study determines, to the extent possible, where and how computerized systems are fundamentally changing the administrative process and/or outstripping the existing framework of legal and procedural safeguards to civil liberties and mechanisms for congressional and judicial oversight. Interim Deliverables: Information Technology and the Social Security Administration (Background Paper) Electronic Surveillance and Civil Liberties --(Report; Published October 1985)

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5 Management, Security, and Congressional Oversight --(Report; Published February 1986) Requesters: Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Hon. William V. Roth, Chairman House Committee on the Judiciary Hon. Robert W. Kastenmeier, Chairman, Subcommittee on Courts, Civil Liberties, and the Administration of Justice Project Director: Fred Wood, 6-2240 INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS IN AN AGE OF ELECTRONICS AND INFORMATION This assessment identifies and analyzes trends in the development of the new information technologies to determine those areas where there might be gaps in the laws and practices of intellectual property. It examines how their widespread deployment and use might alter the value of information and thus affect the future creation, production, distribution, use of, and access to information and knowledge based products. It also identifies and evaluates policy strategies --legal, technological, economic, and social --for addressing intellectual property issues in an age of electronics. Examples of some of the issue areas included in the analysis are: 1) the legal and institutional issues resulting from rapid technological change; 2) the technological issues that result from the impact that intellectual property law might have on technology; 3) socio-political issues arising from the public/private aspects of information; 4) the economic issues arising from the enhanced value of information and information services; 5) the international issues resulting from the increased flow and value of information across national boundaries; and 6) the ethical issues arising from the conflict between public laws and private practices. Requesters: Senate Committee on the Judiciary Hon. Charles McC. Mathias, Chairman, Subcommittee on Patents, Copyrights, and Trademarks House Committee on the Judiciary Hon. Peter Rodino, Chairman Hon. Hamilton Fish, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Robert W. Kastenmeier, Chairman, Subcommittee on Courts, Civil Liberties, and the Administration of Justice Hon. Carlos Moorhead, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Courts, Civil Liberties, and the Administration of Justice Project Director: Linda Garcia, 6-2247

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-6 -II. B. 2. Other: Technical Memoranda, Background Papers, Workshop Proceedings, Committee Prints, and Administrative Reports RESEARCH FUNDING AS AN INVESTMENT: CAN WE MEASURE THE RETURNS? (Technical Memorandum) Analyzes and examines the models and other analytical tools developed by economists to judge capital investments, and the applicability and use of these models and tools to government funding of scientific research. Requester: House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman, Hon. Larry Winn, Jr., then Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Nancy Naismith, 6-2214 ASSESSING BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY IN THE UNITED STATES: DATA CONSIDERATIONS (Background Paper) -An interim deliverable from OTA's ongoing assessment of Technologies to Maintain Biological Diversity, this study examines the state of existing biological data and proposes ways to improve the use of such data by federal agencies for the purpose of maintaining biological diversity. Project Director: Susan Shen, 6-2256 HEARING IMPAIRMENT AND ELDERLY PEOPLE (Background Paper) -Part of OTA's published assessment of Technology and Aging in America, this study found that hearing impairment is the third most prevalent chronic condition among elderly people, and can seriously affect their safety, quality of life, and ability to live independently. The study points out that the types of hearing impairment most common to this group can rarely be cured by medical or surgical treatment, but assistive technologies can help compensate hearing impairment even when the underlying disease or condition cannot be cured. Project Director: Catherine Maslow, 6-2094 HEALTH CASE STUDY #36: EFFECTS OF FEDERAL POLICIES ON EXTRACORPOREAL SHOCK WAVE LITHOTRIPSY (Case Study) -Part of OTA's previously published assessment of Payment for Physician Services, this study found that a new treatment for kidney stones -extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy -is safer, cheaper, and more effective for most stones than traditional "open" surgery. Project Director: Elaine Power, 6-2070 ASSESSMENT ACTIVITIES (Update) LIST OF PUBLICATIONS (Update)

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-7 -OTA Staff Papers or Letter Memoranda Date 04/08/86 04/09/86 04/09/86 05/01/86 05/02/86 05/09/86 05/12/86 05/13/86 05/14/86 Subject Technological Feasibility of a Handgun Made Largely From Plastic Polymers and the Technological Problems They Might Pose for Detection Analysis of Legislative Proposals Currently Under Consideration for Control of Acid Rain The Decreasing Age of Menarche Subseabed Disposal of High-level Radioactive Waste Arctic Haze Updated Analysis of H.R. 4567, a Bill to Reduce Acid rain Analysis of a Proposed Amendment to H.R. 4567, a Bill for Control of Acid Rain Computerization of the SAVE Program operated by the Immigration and Naturalization Service The Use of Alcohol Produced From Grain as a Chemical Feedstock Related OTA Work Ongoing work in the Oceans and Environment and Energy and Materials Programs Technologies to Control Illegal Drug Traffic; High Technology Ceramics and Polymer Composites Published study from the Oceans and Environment Program -Acid Rain and Transported Air Pollutants: Implications for Public Policy Background work in the Biological Applications Program Ongoing work in the Oceans and Environment Program Waste 1n the Marine Environment Published study and ongoing work in the Oceans and Environment Program -Acid Rain and Transported Air Pollutants Published study 1n the Oceans and Environment Program Acid Rain and Transported Air Pollutants Published study in the Oceans and Environment Program Acid Rain and Transported Air Pollutants Published study in the Communication and Information Technologies Program Electronic Record Systems and Individual Privacy Published report from the Energy and Materials Program Energy From Biological Processes

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05/23/86 06/05/86 06/13/86 -8 -Health Effects of Passive Smoking OTA Estimates of State Emissions Reductions Required by H.R. 4567 Information on Acid Deposition Control Legi~lation Background work 1n the Health Program Published study in the Oceans and Environment Program -Acid Rain and Transported Air Pollutants Published study 1n the Oceans and Environment Program -Acid Rain and Transported Air Pollutants

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-9 -II. B. 3. Testimony Date 04/15/86 04/16/86 04/17/86 04/29/86 05/06/86 05/15/86 05/20/86 06/20/86 Committee/Chairman House Committee on Post Office and Civil Service, Subcommittee on Compensation and Employee Benefits (Hon. Mary Rose Oakar) House Committee on the Judiciary, Subcommittee on Courts Civil Liberties and the Administration of Justice (Hon. Robert W. Kastenmeier); Senate Committee on the Judiciary, Subcommittee on Patents, Copyrights, and Trademarks (Hon. Charles McC. Mathias) House Select Committee on Hunger (Hon. Mickey Leland) House Committee on Science and Technology (Hon. Don Fuqua) House Committee on Science and Technology, Subcommittee on Science, Research, and Technology (Hon. Doug Walgren) House Committee on the Judiciary (Hon. Peter W. Rodino, Jr.) House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs (Hon. Morris K. Udall) House Committee on Energy and Commerce, Subcommittee on Energy Conservation and Power (Hon. Edward J. Markey) Subject/Person Testifying Direct Reimbursement of NonPhysician Health Care Providers Under the FEHBP (Gloria Ruby) Intellectual Property Rights in an Age of Electronics and Information (Linda Garcia) Importance of Appropriate Technology Assistance to Poor Farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa (Phyllis Windle) Research Funding As an Investment: Can We Measure the Returns (Nancy Naismith) Alternatives to Animal Use 1n Research and Testing (Gary B. Ellis) The Technology of Plastic Firearms (Peter Johnson and Greg Eyring) Federal Policies Regarding U.S. Insular Areas (Alison Hess) Acid Deposition Control Technologies (Bob Friedman)

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10 -II. C. Other Communication with Congress 1. Formal Briefings, Presentations, Workshops (With Committee Staffs) COMMITTEES OF THE SENATE Commerce, Science, and Transportation o Transportation of hazardous materials Finance Subcommittee on Health o Quality of care Foreign Relations o Staff paper on biological diversity Subcommittee on African Affairs o Upcoming hearings on AID management Labor and Human Resources Subcommittee on Aging o Health services research o Financing long-term care Special Committee on Aging o Quality of care COMMITTEES OF THE HOUSE Education and Labor o Findings and options of the study on Reemploying Displaced Adults Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Health and the Environment o Physician payment issues o Quality of care Select Committee on Aging o Quality of care Subcommittee on Human Services o Health services research o Financing long-term care Ways and Means Subcommittee on Health o Physician payment issues o Quality of care

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11 OTHER CONGRESSIONAL OFFICES Biomedical Ethics Board o Biomedical ethics Senate Majority Leader o Physician payment issues Senator Moynihan o Age of menarche; teenage pregnancy

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12 II. C. 2. Informal Discussions --Topics In addition to briefings and presentations, informal discussions take place continually, as requested by Members and staff. OTA staff members give updates on ongoing work and provide information that Members and Committees may need relative to legislation pending or under consideration or for hearings and related testimony. Topic Surface .mine reclamation Copper industry and technologies Cogeneration Coal leasing Advanced materials Technology transfer of new materials Ceramic materials Fusion technology Oil industry and prices Historic and prehistoric preservation Electricity and wheeling of power Delivery of technology and structural unemployment Findings of reemployment report Evaluation of trade adjustment assistance Policy options for Job Training Partnership Act Plant closings and advance notice Trade and eroding U.S. markets Trade in services Congressional agenda in competitiveness issues Stringfellow Superfund site Joint STARS radar Chernobyl Nuclear power in the PRC Japanese science and technology SDI Agricultural research Collaborative research support programs Hunger iri Africa Biological diversity background papers Grain quality issues Developing new legislation for new directions of USDA Extension Activities Moratorium on farm foreclosures Food and agricultural policy Transfer of natural resources and environment information to lesser developed countries Financing long-term care Biomedical research policy Neuroscience

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-13 Space biology Health services research Quality assurance in long-term care Human gene therapy Bioethics Tests for genetic disorders International, especially Third World, biotechnology Biotechnology in Cuba Infertility Age of menarche and teenage pregnancy Immune-augmentative therapy for cancer Irnmunosuppressive drugs Physician Payment Review Commission AIDS Drug exports Drug labeling in the developing countries Government purchases of equipment for disabled people Future health care technology Rural health care Mammography Orphan drugs Psychiatric care for the homeless Quality of health care Agent Orange studies; Vietnam veteran studies Female Vietnam veterans Atomic veterans Post Traumatic Stress Disorder Nutritional vlaue of food and the food stamp program Passive smoking Carcinogen regulatory policies NIOSH study of VDT workers Vaccine use Medicare physician payment AIDC costs Indian health care Health status of native Hawaiians California Indians' resource allocation 1n Indian Health Service Clinical staffing within IHS Dialyzer reuse Hearings on treatment of AIDS AIDS testing in the military Geographic variations in medical practice Offshore data entry State government office automation Social security case studies Home based work Information technology management Government information systems Computer modeling Government foresight Federal information dissemination Electronoic surveillance

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14 Computerized criminal history records Telephone by-pass charges Work monitoring National Security Decision Directive 145 Computer access controls Fiber optic communications Communications security Mass media Information infrastructure Acid rain control Drug_ interdiction Subseabed disposal of high-level radioactive waste Literacy Educational technologies Research and Development funding Educating special learners Transportation of hazardous materials Construction technologies Long-life postal delivery vehicles Drug interdiction technology Transportation safety Airport congestion and capacity Automotive fuel economy

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-15 -DESCRIPTIONS AND REQUESTERS FOR CURRENT OTA ASSESSMENTS AS OF JUNE 30, 1986

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-16 -II. D. Descriptions and Requesters of Projects A. IN PRESS AS OF 6/30/86 TECHNOLOGIES FOR DETECTING HERITABLE MUTATIONS --Mutations are permanent changes in the genetic information contained in chromosomes and DNA of cells. When they occur in germ cells --egg or sperm cells --they are passed on to succeeding generations. Always a concern in public health, mutations are becoming a policy issue because of claims that they have been caused by exposures to radiation and chemicals. Little is known about the frequency of human mutations, and evidence is insufficient to decide whether or not external factors contribute in any significant way to the frequency despite the reasonable contention that they probably do. Technologic breakthroughs may make it possible to determine mutation rates directly. The new methods require drawing blood and analyzing proteins or DNA or a particular gene for genetic changes. The assessment: 1) details the status and limits of knowledge about human mutations and mutation frequencies; 2) reviews the current methods used to study human mutations; 3) describes methods now under development and being considered; 4) estimates when each of the new methods might be available for studying human populations and the size of the experiments that would be necessary to produce useful results; and S) develops policy options to spur the research and application of appropriate methods. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs Hon. Alan K. Simpson, then Chairman Hon. Alan Cranston, Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Project Director: Julie Ostrowsky, 6-2070 HAZARDOUS MATERIALS TRANSPORTATION: TECHNOLOGY ISSUES --Ensuring public safety during transportation of hazardous materials and wastes has been an increasing concern for some time. Undocumented estimates of the quantity of hazardous commodities shipped annually range to 4 billion tons. Given the estimates of the large quantities shipped, the safety record is good. However, great damage does occasionally occur. A primary government interest is ensuring public and environmental safety while facilitating movement of these commodities vital to the Nation's economy. This assessment is directed toward three fundamental issues: 1) the adequacy of containers used in the transportation of hazardous materials; 2) the adequacy of the information systems used to track commodity transport and keep safety records for planning purposes and regulation; and 3) the appropriate levels of training for personnel

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-17 -responsible for the transportation of hazardous materials emergency response. Interim Deliverable: State and Local Activities in Trans ortation of Hazardous Materials (Special Report; published 3 86) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Bob Packwood, then Chairman Hon. Ernest F. Hollings, Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Government Operations Hon. Cardiss Collins, Chairwoman, Subcommittee on Government Activities and Transportation House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. James J. Florio, Chairman, Subcommittee on Commerce, Transportation, and Tourism House Committee on Public Works and Transportation Hon. James J. Howard, Chairman Project Director: Edith Page, 6-2214

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-18 -B. IN PROGRESS AS OF 6/30/86 Energy, Materials, and International Security Division EFFECTS OF TECHNOLOGY ON THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC TRANSITION --New technologies, growing international competition in markets once dominated by U.S. suppliers, and changes in the cost and availability of oil and other critical resources may lead to a fundamental change in the structure of the U.S. economy. These changes could also change the utility of major classes of public policy. The analysis conducted for this project will describe ways the national economy may change during the next two decades, explore the ways these changes may alter prospects for employment and profitable investment in different major classes of economic activities, describe how the changes may alter critical aspects of the quality of life in America, and examine the implications of these changes for national policy. The analysis is constructed around seven tightly integrated projects. Six of these are designed to explore plausible ways the economy may move to meet basic market requirements during the next two decades and the nature of the employment and investment opportunities created. The areas covered include: the health industries, agriculture and food processing, construction, transportation and communication, education, and "leisure-time" industries. At least two possibilities are being considered in each case: (1) an extrapolation of current trends, and (2) an analysis of ways the market could be met assuming that new technologies were introduced with no market "imperfections11 except those explicitly introduced where markets clearly are inadequate (e.g., regulations designed to protect the environment). This analysis of "potentials" is not a forecast in the conventional sense but is designed to illuminate the range of possible impacts of new technologies. When the "potential" analysis differs significantly from projections based on trends, the work will provide a convenient basis for determining whether or not the divergence results from poorly designed federal programs. A separate project is examining basic manufacturing and service industries not covered elsewhere. Each of these projects will result in a separate publication and an evaluation of specific policy problems identified in the sectors covered. Thfr components will be combined systematically using a simple accounting procedure developed for the project. Where relevant, the results will be compared with major macroeconomic models developed elsewhere. The integrated analysis will be used to examine major national policy issues affecting capital formation, employment, international competition, investments in infrastructure, research and development priorities, and other areas of major national interest.

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-19 -Interim Deliverables: International Competitiveness of U.S. Agriculture (Technical Memorandum) --(Requester: Hon. Roger Jepsen, then Chairman, Joint Economic Committee) --Contact Henry Kelly, 6-3960. New Construction Technologies (Technical Memorandum) --Contact Henry Kelly, 6-3960. Leisure Industries (Technical Memorandum) --Contact Henry Kelly, 6-3960. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Bob Packwood, then Chairman Hon. Ernest Hollings, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Larry Pressler, Chairman, Subcommittee on Business, Trade, and Tourism Senate Committee on the Budget Hon. Pete V. Domenici, Chairman Hon. Lawton Chiles, Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman House Committee on Post Office and Civil Service Hon. William D. Ford, Chairman House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman House Committee on Education and Labor Hon. Carl D. Perkins (deceased), then Chairman House Committee on the Judiciary Hon. Peter W. Rodino, Chairman House Committee on Public Works and Transportation Hon. James J. Howard, Chairman House Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs Hon. Fernand J. St Germain, Chairman Hon. Chalmers P. Wylie, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Henry Kelly, 6-3960 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: July 1986 HIGH TECHNOLOGY STRU~TURAL CERAMICS AND POLYMER COMPOSITES Development and use of advanced materials such as high performance ceramics and polymer composites promise dramatic changes in many aspects of our economy. The unique properties and design features of these materials provide the opportunity for greatly increased performance in many products in use today, enhanced manufacturing productivity, and new types of products. Composites used as structural members in aircraft and ceramics in machine tool bits already have demonstrated some of these large performance gains. The promise of these materials has caused other nations to embark on major development programs. This nation's ability to maintain long term economic growth and remain competitive will depend to a large extent on how well we take advantage of the opportunities presented by these materials. To do so, however, requires that many technical problems and non-technical barriers be overcome.

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20 -This assessment will better define the many opportun1t1es for high technology ceramics and polymer composites over the next 15 to 25 years. It will determine the principal technical and related problems that need to be overcome if timely expansion of the commercial use of these materials is to take place. Finally, the study will analyze the broad implications of these high technology materials to future U.S. economic growth and competitiveness. Interim Deliverable: Future Opportunities for Advanced Materials (Technical Memorandum) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. John C. Danforth, Chairman Hon. Ernest F. Hollings, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Slade Gorton, Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon, Manuel Lujan, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Dan Glickman, Chairman, and Hon. Tom Lewis, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Transportation, Aviation, and Materials Project Director: Greg Eyring, 6-2151 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: March 1987 TECHNOLOGIES FOR PREHISTORIC AND HISTORIC PRESERVATION --In recognition of the importance of preserving our prehistoric and historic heritage, Congress over the last eighty years has enacted a variety of laws to protect and preserve U.S. cultural resources. This assessment will provide an overview of technologies for cultural resource management. It will: 1) identify and discuss the most effective current technologies for prehistoric and historic preservation; 2) evaluate the most promising new technologies that could be applied to the problem; and 3) suggest areas for further research and development. To the extent possible, the assessment will also discuss the costs of the technologies and examine any nontechnical constraints on their use. The assessment will focus on technologies for: 1) locating, identifying, surveying, and evaluating historic structures and sites and their contents, including archaeological sites; 2) preserving buildings, structures, and landscapes; and 3) measuring the effect of changes in the environment on historic structures, artifacts, sites, and landscapes. It will not discuss the preservation of paintings, books, and other artifacts, except insofar as technologies used in their preservation are applicable to structures and sites. To the extent pertinent to historic preservation, the study will also consider technologies for storing, sharing, and retrieving historic preservation information.

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-21 -Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs Hon. Morris K. Udall, Chairman Hon. Don Young, Ranking Minority Member Hon. John F. Seiberling, Chairman, Subcommittee on Public Lands Hon. Ron Marlenee, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Public Lands Project Director: Ray Williamson, 6-2209 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: July 1986 MAGNETIC FUSION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT --Thermonuclear fusion, the process powering stars and hydrogen bombs, offers the prospect of providing a source of energy having an effectively unlimited fuel supply. Fusion power might turn out to be both safer and more environmentally acceptable than nuclear fission. Great progress in harnessing fusion has been made to date, but a great deal of additional work is required. The Magnetic Fusion Energy Engineering Act of 1980 envisaged, but did not appropriate, 25% real increases in fusion research funding for each of the following two years, and a doubling of the overall effort within seven years. By FY 1986, however, the magnetic fusion budget had fallen, in real terms, to two-thirds of the peak value it reached in FY 1977. Shrinking funding profiles are forcing a major reanalysis of the Department of Energy's magn~tic fusion research program. OTA will examine the choices which need be made concerning the fusion program, including: 1) how resources might be re-allocated between fusion and other national programs intended to meet some of the same goals (long-term energy supply, stimulation of technology, international scientific prestige, etc.); and 2) how the fusion program could be structured, including the role of international cooperation, once the program's goals and priority have been decided. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon. Manuel Lujan, Jr., Ranking Minority Member Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Hon. James A. McClure, Chairman Hon. J. Bennet Johnston, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Pete V. Domenici Hon. Wendell H. Ford Project Director: Gerald Epstein, 6-2184 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: March 1987 COMPETITIVENESS OF THE DOMESTIC COPPER INDUSTRY --Copper historically has been an important part of the domestic mineral indsutry and has contributed significantly to the economy, particularly in the

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22 -Western United States. In recent years, however, a number of factors have combined to reduce the demand for domestic copper in favor of foreign sources of supply. The domestic costs of copper mimin#.S. balance of payments position depends heavily on income from foreign sales of intangibles to counterbalance, if only in part, merchandise deficits. Exports of technology-intensive manufactures -commercial aircraft, power generating equipment, electronic systems -are frequently tied to training and maintenance contracts. New developments in many of the service industries stem directly from technical advances. Increasingly, the Western European nations and Japan offer strong competition 1n international markets for technologically-based services. The analytical approach in this assessment will be based on that developed in past OTA studies of competitiveness: three to five service industries will be selected for detailed analysis based on business strategies as affected by technological developments, industrial structure, and government policies. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Technology Assessment Board Hon. Morris K. Udall, Vice Chairman Hon. Orrin G. Hatch Congressional Copper Caucus Hon. Barry M. Goldwater, U.S. Senate Hon. Jim Kolbe, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Max Baucus, U.S. Senate Hon. Carl Levin, U.S. Senate Hon. Chic Hecht, U.S. Senate Hon. Barbara F. Vucanovich, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Manuel Lujan, Jr., U.S. House of Representatives Hon. John McCain, U.S. House of Representatives Hon. Howard C. Nielson, U.S. House of Representatives Project Director: Jenifer Robison, 6-2134 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: September 1987 TECHNOLOGICAL RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR FUTURE U.S. ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND -Congress is now being presented with a series of energy demand and supply forecasts that are radically different from those of just a few years ago. A common theme includes greatly moderated oil prices into the early 1990's followed by a possible return to OPEC dominance of oil markets, rising oil prices, and greatly expanded U.S. oil imports by the late 1990's. This study will evaluate current views of the U.S. future energy outlook, identify key technical uncertainties and risks that affect the validity of these views, and identify and evaluate energy policy options for dealing with these uncertainties and risks. In the first phase of the study, OTA will evaluate the implications for U.S. energy policy of volatile oil prices, emphasizing the effects of low prices on domestic oil production, e.g., plugging of stripper wells and loss of production from

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-23 -tertiary and some secondary recovery operations in the shorter term, loss of production and reserves due to lower drilling rates, reduced R&D expenditures, and so forth in the longer term. In the second phase aimed at overall U.S. energy supply and demand, OTA will first examine historic changes in U.S. energy supply and demand and the ability of previous forecasts to anticipate these changes. Next, the study will describe current forecasts for the next 15-25 years and identify their underlying assumptions. The study will then identify and evaluate the primary sources of technical uncertainties in the forecasts. The sources of technical uncertainty include: economic growth rates and patterns; new energy supply, conservation, and end use technologies; geologic uncertainties about available oil and gas resources; consumer reactions to lower energy prices, and other apsects of public and industry behavior; and methodological problems in forecasting. (The final report will discuss -but not primarily analyze -non-technical sources of uncertainty, primarily political uncertainty.) Finally, the study will identify and evaluate policy options that would add flexibility to the energy system, i.e., to increase the system's ability to adapt to the range of futures consistent with these uncertainties. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chairman Hon. Phillip R. Sharp, Chairman, Subcommittee on Fossil and Synthetic Fuels House Committee on Government Operations Hon. Jack Brooks, Chairman Project Director: Steve Plotkin, 226-2110 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: November 1987 INTERNATIONAL COMPETITION IN SERVICE INDUSTRIES --The services have become mainstays of the U.S. economy, both in terms of domestic employment and foreign sales. Many are driven by new technologies. The U.S. balance of payments position depends heavily on income from foreign sales of intangibles to counterbalance, if only in part, merchandise deficits. Exports of technology-intensive manufactures --commercial aircraft, power generating equipment, electronic systems --are frequently tied to training and maintenance contracts. New developments in many of the service industries stem directly from technical advances. Increasingly, the Western European nations and Japan offer strong competition in international markets for technologically-based services. The analytical approach in this assessment will be based on that developed in past OTA studies of competitiveness: three to five service industries will be selected for detailed analysis based on business strategies as affected by technological developments, industrial structure, and government policies.

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24 -Interim Deliverable: Services in the U.S. Balance of Payments (Special Report) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Hon. Charles Percy, then Chairman Hon. Charles Mee. Mathias, Jr., Chairman, Subcommittee on International Economic Policy Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Hon. William V. Roth, Jr., Chairman House Committee on Small Business Hon. Parren Mitchell, Chairman Hon. Berkley Bedell, Chairman, Subcommittee on General Oversight and the Economy House Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs Hon. John J. LaFalce, Chairman, Subcommittee on Economic Stabilization Project Director: John Alic, 6-2012 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: July 1986 REDUCTION OF INDUSTRIAL HAZARDOUS WASTE -The generation of hazardous waste by industry poses a range of environmental risks and increasingly high costs. About one metric ton of hazardous waste is being generated annually for every person in the nation. Only within the past decade has it become clear that the land disposal of hazardous waste is fraught with risks, particularly to groundwater. Waste management is undergoing major changes as a result of government regulatory programs that are making land disposal much more expensive and more restricted. But, to a large extent, there are major uncertainties about how the regulatory program will be implemented and enforced. Liabilities associated with the hazardous waste disposed of in the past are also influencing industry decisions. Cleaning up uncontrolled toxic waste sites by the Superfund program, industry, and the states may require hundreds of billions of dollars over many decades. Current costs to industry to manage its newly generated hazardous waste is probably about $6 billion annually. There is general agreement that reducing the generation of hazardous waste is necessary both from the environmental and the economic perspective. However, the role of government and particularly government regulations to induce industry toward waste reduction is not clear. Government regulation of waste management is shifting away from and "end of the pipe" approach to examining industrial processes and company operations; this shift is of major concern to industry. Thus it is becoming more important to learn how to use non-regulatory approaches (e.g., technical assistance, information transfer, and R&D support) to complement regulatory ones. This assessment will examine and review the technical options to substantially reduce the amount and hazardous nature of industrial hazardous wastes, only some of which may be regulated

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25 -under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act and state programs. It will also identify and analyze current efforts in waste reduction and will examine the full range of technical, economic, and institutional impediments facing industry in these efforts. The assessment will analyze Federal and state policies and programs which affect waste reduction efforts; and it will identify and evaluate both regulatory and non-regulatory options that Congress can consider for enhancing the extent and pace of waste reduction efforts while avoiding undesirable impacts on employment, profitability, and the international competitiveness of industry. One option that will be considered is the possibility that no further Congressional action may be needed in the near term. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Chairman Hon. Edward M. Kennedy, Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Small Business Hon. Charles W. Stenholm, Chairman Hon. William S. Broomfield, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Nicholas Mavroules, Chairman, Subcommittee on General Oversight and the Economy Hon. Silvio O. Conte, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on General Oversight and the Economy Hon. Ike Skelton, Chairman, Subcommittee on Export Opportunities and Special Small Business Problems House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Hon. James T. Broyhill, Ranking Minority Member Hon. James J. Florio, Chairman, Subcommittee on Commerce, Transportation, and Tourism Hon. Norman F. Lent, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Commerce, Transportation, and Tourism House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Project Director: Joel Hirschhorn, 6-2089 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: July 1986 TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER TO CHINA --The People's Republic of China (PRC) 1s introducing major changes as it rapidly modernizes its economic system and seeks improved global relationships. Imports of technology and scientific expertise and the encouragement of foreign investment are key elements. This presents economic and strategic opportunities and risks for the United States. China could become a major market for U.S. exports, and technology transfer could enhance economic growth for both countries. Technology transfer could also be a major factor in improving relations and strengthening China's role in Asia. However, technology transfer can also lead to problems. If relations deteriorate between the U.S. and the PRC, we may regret having provided technology that would strengthen their military. For instance, computers and telecommunication equipment, even if sold for commercial use, could be redirected, or the

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26 -expertise developed in using them employed in independently producing military equipment. Another concern is that they may import only enough technology to get a start, and then expand commercially to become a competitor in world markets. This assessment will examine the role of imported science and technology in the plans of the PRC; the technology the U.S. and other nations can supply; the impacts of policies, both for control and promotion, on these transfers; and the security and commercial risks involved. Interim Deliverable: Energy Technology Transfer to China (Technical Memorandum) (Published September 1985) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Hon. Jake Garn, Chairman Hon. William Proxmire, Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chairman Hon. James Broyhill, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Al Swift, Chairman, Special Subcommittee on U.S.-Pacific Rim Trade Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (endorsement) Hon. Dave Durenberger, Chairman Hon. Patrick Leahy, Vice Chairman Project Director: Alan Crane, 6-2105 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: December 1986 ALTERNATIVES FOR IMPROVING NATO'S DEFENSE RESPONSE Recent initiatives to improve NATO's defenses have focused on "follow-on forces attack" (FOFA), a tactical interdiction mission that aims to defeat an invasion by attacking enemy forces while they are moving toward the battle area, and a related interdiction mission that would support FOFA. U.S. programs to develop a capability for deep interdiction may be able to substantially increase NATO's nonnuclear defense capabilities. Central to these programs are new "smart'' conventional munitions. The U.S. presently spends hundreds of millions of dollars annually on research on weapons and support systems for interdiction; eventual procurements could total hundreds of billions. Yet there exists to date no comprehensive study of interdiction and its implications for NATO. This OTA assessment is developing a comprehensive appraisal of the military and technical risks and opportunities of applying various alternative technologies to the "deep interdiction" capability in NATO, with particular attention to possible implications for Alliance cohesion and cooperation. The study 1s focused on comparing alternative new munitions to the existing munitions, and other issues such as aircraft and missile platforms and target acquisition systems will be reviewed. Unsolved technical problems will be identified and assessed. Soviet doctrine and U.S.

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-27 and Allied strategy and doctrine will be reviewed to assess the military value of various approaches to interdiction, and possible Soviet responses. Finally, the project will identify and assess possible U.S. policy options for developing this capability. Interim Deliverable: Technologies for NATO's Follow-on Forces Attack Concept (Special Report) (Classified version submitted to Committee 2/86; unclassified version in press) Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Foreign Affairs Hon. Dante Fascell, Chairman Hon. William S. Broomfield, Ranking Minority Member House Committee on Armed Services Hon. Les Aspin, Chairman Hon. William Dickinson, Ranking Minority Member Senate Committee on Armed Services (affirmation of interest) Hon. Barry Goldwater, Chairman Hon. Sam Nunn, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Alan Shaw, 6-2018 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: December 1986 STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE SURVIVABILITY AND SOFTWARE --This project will attempt to meet mandated study objectives by carrying out three major tasks: 1) update of the 1985 OTA Report on New Ballistic Missile Defense Technologies with respect to the technologies currently being researched under the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI). The work of the earlier report will not be repeated, but rather special attention will be given to filling in gaps in that Report and to reporting on technical progress made in the intervening two years; 2) examination of the best currently available information on the prospects for functional survival against preemptive attack of alternative ballistic missile defense system architectures currently being studied under the SDI; and 3) analysis of the issues involved in the question of whether it is feasible to develop reliable software to perform the battle management tasks required by such system architectures. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Mandated by P.L. 9-9-190 Project Director: Tom Karas, 6-2014 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: June 1987 Health and Life Sciences Division TECHNOLOGIES TO MAINTAIN BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY --Maintaining biological diversity of plants and animals is both a matter of insurance and investment necessary to sustain and improve agriculture, to keep

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-28 -open future options for medical discoveries, and as the raw material for industrial innovation and genetic engineering. Agricultural development needs wild plants as a source of new genes to increase yields, to improve disease resistance, and to increase the ability of crops to withstand extreme environmental stresses. Wild plants are used by the pharmaceutical industry as sources of valuable compounds that, once discovered in nature, sometimes can be synthesized in the laboratory. Animal physiology affords many clues to the origins and nature of human ailments. For example, the cotton-topped marmoset, a species of monkey susceptible to lymphatic cancer, is helping to produce a potent anticancer vaccine. Genetic engineering, an emerging technology with great potentials for agriculture, depends on biological diversity for the raw material to engineer. Thus loss of diversity could reduce the potential opportunities that this technology offers. But while the importance of diverse biological resources is receiving increasing attention, diversity appears to be declining and valuable reservoirs of germ plasm are disappearing. In order to identify opportun1t1es to maintain biological diversity, OTA will: 1) assess the status of biological diversity and its rates of change; 2) assess the economic, social, ecological, and political implications of a decline in biological diversity; 3) assess technologies (both in situ and ex situ) to maintain plant and animal biological diversity; 4) assess the role of institutions and U.S.-funded agencies (e.g., U.N. and World Bank) in developing and transferring beneficial technologies for maintaining biological diversity; and 5) identify policy options that will facilitate the development and use of such technologies to maintain biological diversity. Interim Deliverables: Grassroots Conservation of Biological Diversity in the United States (Background Paper #1; published 2/86) Assessing Biological Diversity in the United States: Data Considerations (Background Paper #2; published 4/86) The Role of U.s. Development Assistance in Maintaining Biological Diversity (Staff Paper) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Hon. Jesse Helms, Chairman Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Hon. Claiborne Pell House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman House Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries Hon. Walter Jones, Chairman Hon. Joel Pritchard, then Ranking Minority Member Hon. John B. Breaux, Chairman, Subcommittee on Fisheries and Wildlife Conservation and the Environment Hon. Don Young, Subcommittee on Fisheries and Wildlife Conservation and the Environment

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29 House Committee on Foreign Affairs Hon. Dante Fascell, Chairman Hon. Don Bonker, Chairman, Subcommittee on International Economic Policy and Trade Hon. Gus Yatron, Chairman, Subcommittee on Human Rights and International Organizations House Committee on Agriculture Hon. E. de la Garza, Chairman Project Director: Susan Shen, 6-2256 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: September 1986 INTEGRATED RENEWABLE RESOURCES MANAGEMENT FOR U.S. INSULAR AREAS -U.S. insular areas in the Caribbean (Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands) and the Pacific (Guam, American Samoa, Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas, and the Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands) have experienced considerable historical land resource degradation. Freshwater supplies may be highly variable and tropical soils and waters can be relatively infertile, requiring special management consideration. Today they rely heavily on food imports, and many local food production technologies and incentives have been lost. The U.S., Hawaii, and territorial governments have voiced commitments to greater food production diversity and selfsufficiency. Activities in Hawaii provide models of these developments. The small size and limited resources of these insular areas require that land planning consider the capability of sites to sustain agriculture and aquaculture; the probable impacts of development on other resources; and alternatives to traditional management schemes that may be more appropriate to the economies and ecologies of these areas. Technologies designed for temperate, continental agriculture and aquaculture --frequently dependent on relatively low cost energy supplies, large capital outlays, and well-developed markets --typically are not suitable for tropical insular areas. Reaping sustained benefits from food production developments requires technologies appropriate to resource characteristics and incentive schemes appropriate to cultural settings that encourage integrated development and management of island resources. In order to assess technologies for insular renewable resource management and development, OTA will: 1) review data on freshwater demands, supplies and uses and assess water supply enhancement and conservation technologies; 2) assess agricultural technologies given the availability and quality of water and land supplies; 3) assess aquaculture technologies alone and in combination with agricultural technologies; and 4) assess maricultural technologies for their suitability in the insular settings; 5) identify integrated land capability analysis technologies appropriate to island resource development; and 6) assess certain opportunities in case studies that include implementation action plans.

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30 -Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Hon. James A. McClure, Chairman Hon. Spark Matsunaga House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs Hon. Morris K. Udall, Chairman Hon. Antonio B. Won Pat, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Insular Affairs Project Director: Alison Hess, 6-2198 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: August 1986 LOW-RESOURCE AGRICULTURE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES -Most people in developing countries are subsistence farmers who cannot obtain or afford the expensive fertilizers and pesticides upon which the highyield (Green Revolution) technologies are based. Thus, as populations grow and fuel prices rise, low-resource agricultural technologies are receiving increased attention from donors and researchers. For example, international donors such as the Peace Corps and the World Bank are giving high priority to research and development projects that enhance rather than replace low-resource, traditional farming methods. This is particularly true for programs in Africa where subsistence farmers hold the key to increasing food production and where the continuing need for massive food aid demonstrates the failure of many past agricultural, development assistance and resource protection policies. This OTA assessment will build upon the results of a previous Technical Memorandum, Africa Tomorrow: Issues in Technology, Agriculture, and U.S. Foreign Aid. By examining low-resource agricultural technologies world-wide, OTA will help Congress evaluate programs and formulate policies related to both U.S. agriculture and foreign policy. In order to do this, OTA will: 1) determine which of these technologies can increase African food production in socio-economically and environmentally sustainable ways; 2) identify the U.S. role in technology development and transfer; 3) assess actual and potential benefits to the U.S. from participation in international agricultural research on low-resource methods; and 4) evaluate certain aspects of the Sahel Development Program as a case study in U.S. public and private assistance to Africa. Interim Deliverable: Continuing the Commitment: Sahel Development Program (Special Report; in press)

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31 -Request or Affirmation of Interest: Technology Assessment Board Hon. Morris K. Udall, Vice Chairman Hon. Edward M. Kennedy Hon. Orrin G. Hatch Hon. Cooper Evans Hon. Claiborne Pell House Committee on Agriculture Hon. E. (Kika) de la Garza, Chairman House Committee on Foreign Affairs Hon. Dante B. Fascell, Chairman (endorsement) House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon. James H. Scheuer, Chairman, Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Agriculture Research, and Environment House Select Committee on Hunger Hon. Mickey Leland, Chairman Hon. Marge Roukema, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Phyllis Windle, 6-2265 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: June 1987 EVALUATION OF AGENT ORANGE PROTOCOL --As mandated by PL 96-151, reviews epidemiologic studies regarding long-term health effects of veterans exposed to dioxins in Vietnam. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Mandated by PL 96-151. Project Director: Hellen Gelband, 6-2070 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: Indeterminate TECHNOLOGY AND CHILD HEALTH -This project will bring together the current evidence on the effectiveness and costs of health care technologies in promoting and maintaining children's health. It will examine current patterns of availability of these technologies and barriers to their appropriate use. The role of Federal policies, including Medicaid, Maternal and Child Health, and the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) program, in providing access to preventive and therapeutic technologies will be examined. A range of illness prevention and therapeutic technologies 1s available at every phase of childhood and the prenatal period. Some, applied in the prenatal period, can reduce the risk of neonatal mortality and morbidity; others, applied later in the child's life, may prevent illnesses that typically manifest themselves in adulthood. New medical technology has also transformed formerly fatal childhood diseases into serious chronic illnesses, whose victims remain technology-dependent for extended periods of time. It is often feasible for these children to be cared for in the home, provided the financial and supportive resources are available. The availability of these life saving

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32 technologies raises questions about the private and public financing and organization of services for this small but growing population. This project will emphasize study of illness prevention technologies, including non-medical technologies such as promotion of safe behavior (e.g., seat-belt use) and improved nutrition. Among the preventive technologies to be considered will be prenatal screening, monitoring, and care; infant screening; immunizations; and early-childhood screening. Therapeutic technologies will include neo-natal intensive care and pediatric home care for technology-dependent children. Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Hon. Henry A. Waxman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment Hon. Edward R. Madigan, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment Hon. Thomas J. Tauke Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Chairman Senate Committee on Finance Hon. Bob Packwood, Chairman Hon. Russell B. Long, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Judith Wagner, 6-2070 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: March 1987 LIFE-SUSTAINING TECHNOLOGIES AND THE ELDERLY -Recent technological advances in the treatment of chronic disease and acute illness, combined with greater access to such care, make it possible to keep persons alive who might never have survived in the past. One result is that more older persons than ever before are surviving to the oldest ages (75 and over). These advances, however, are accompanied by complex legal, ethical, and financial issues concerning the definition of death, appropriate use of life-sustaining technologies, quality of life, patients' rights, surrogate decisionmaking, and the allocation of federal resources. Data indicate-that up to 30 percent of all Medicare reimbursements (more than $57 billion in 1983) are made for care of older Americans in their last year of life; half of all nursing home costs are paid by federal Medicaid dollars. This assessment is examining these technological advances and their implications for the elderly. It will: 1) provide a classification of life-sustaining technologies and describe their development, including prospects for the future; 2) evaluate different technologies that are now applied in different situations and settings (e.g., end-stage renal dialysis, resuscitation, ventilation, alimentation, etc.); 3) describe the elderly subpopulations that are affected; 4) review ethical problems in different settings and situations (hospital, nursing home,

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33 -residence); 5) evaluate the ethical issues related to patients' rights; 6) present data on attitudes toward life-sustaining technologies and patients' rights (professional associations, groups representing the elderly, surveys of the public and health care providers, etc.); 7) review methods for determining mental competence and surrogate decisionmaking for the demented elderly; 8) evaluate federal and State laws regarding patients' rights, surrogate decisionmaking, living wills, etc.; and 9) review data and issues concerning federal and other public costs related to current and potential applications of life-sustaining technologies. Interim Deliverable: Surrogate Decisionmaking (Background Paper) (shared effort with Disorders Causing Dementia) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Special Committee on Aging Hon. John Heinz, Chairman House Select Committee on Aging Hon. Edward R. Roybal, Chairman Project Director: Claire Maklan, 6-2093 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: July 1986 DISORDERS CAUSING DEMENTIA --The economic, social, and health problems associated with disorders that cause deterioration of mental function (dementia) are growing rapidly. Current estimates of the cost of providing long-term care nationwide are approximately $30 billion annually for nursing homes and another $14 billion for other forms (1983); with $12 billion derived from Federal sources (Medicare, Medicaid, Veterans Administration, etc.). Disorders leading to dementia are estimated to account for over half of these costs. These figures, and the other costs associated with dementia (emotional distress among friends and family, costs of acute medical care, including diagnosis, and income lost due to the disease) threaten to rise rapidly as the proportion of very old people (over 80) in the population continues to increase much faster than other age groups. This assessment is considering Federal policy relating to two major Federal functions: 1) support of research intended to provide treatment or means of prevention, and 2) financing and monitoring of long-term care for those who have dementia. The assessment is surveying the status of basic biomedical research and health services research, and will evaluate the methods for providing longterm care of those who develop dementia. The assessment of longterm care will include discussion of various options: home care, day care, respite care, adoptive care, and domiciliary care, in addition to nursing home care. Particular attention will be focused on evaluating methods for optimizing care of demented patients in the various settings (including Federal and private responsibilities for financing and assuring quality care.)

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34 -Interim Deliverable: Surrogate Decisionmaking --(Background Paper) (shared effort with Life Sustaining Technologies and the Elderly) Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Chairman Senate Special Committee on Aging Hon. John Heinz, Chairman Hon. Larry Pressler Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs Hon. Alan K. Simpson, then Chairman Senate Committee on Finance Hon. Bob Dole, then Chairman Hon. Bill Bradley House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Hon. Larry Winn, Jr., then Ranking Minority Member Hon. Albert Gore, Jr., then Member Hon. Joe Skeen House Select Committee on Aging Hon. Edward R. Roybal, Chairman Senator Howard Metzenbaum Project Director: Robert Cook-Deegan, 6-2034 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: July 1986 NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN BIOTECHNOLOGY --In the past 10 years the growth of biotechnology has been explosive. Large and small firms have invested billions of dollars in the technology across a broad array of applications. Advances in basic research are equally impressive. A number of new techniques are in development or have reached the market that will improve the detection of cancer and a variety of genetic diseases; others will improve the treatment of these diseases. For example, a diagnostic test for the genetic disease Huntington's Chorea is close, and Factor VIII, a blood clotting factor, may soon be available to treat hemophiliacs. Agricultural applications include improved resistance to plant pests and pesticides, and nutritional enhancement of existing food crops. Biotechnology has great promise for numerous applications both now and in the future; there is also concern about the potential consequences of these applications. This assessment will focus on several interrelated areas: the directions in which the technology is developing including environmental and medical applications; the social utility of these applications; and the implications of the technology for intellectual property law. Although separate areas, assessment of each is dependent on background knowledge in the others; hence they are combined in one assessment.

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-35 Several questions with regard to environmental applications need to be answered. Are the environmental ramifications of the deliberate or accidental release of genetically engineered organisms being adequately reviewed under the existing regulatory structure? How well can the levels of risk be predicted? How much and what kind of research is being done by regulatory agencies, the academic community, and industry? What regulatory criteria should be used to evaluate risk? Closely tied to this issue is public perception. How do people perceive the risks of biotechnology? What kind of information is widely disseminated? Is information targeted to specific groups? Is there a need for specific changes in education? What are the economic and social impacts of the patterns of development of biotechnology? Has the need for capital and the types of firms developing products influenced the types of products, especially in agriculture? Is the technology being transferred in a manner that will benefit not only highly developed nations but also lesser developed countries? How can the Federal government encourage the development of products that could directly benefit the third world and individuals with diseases of rare occurrence? New techniques for diagnosing inherited diseases are being developed. What is the status of these technologies? Are there special problems associated with their use because of the time lag between the ability to diagnose and the ability to treat diseases? The adequacy and limitations of intellectual property law vis-a-vis biotechnology need assessment. Do present criteria for utility patents apply to all living organisms produced by biotechnology? Are there special considerations in the deposit of these products? How long should they be stored? Who should have access? When is experimental use of the products infringement? Is Public Law 96-517, the patent law that allows research institutions to apply for patents on research results, equitable to all parties concerned? Are patient rights in experimental and clinical settings being adequately protected? Interim Deliverables: Genetic Issues in Environmental Applications of Genetically Altered Organisms (Background Paper) (Contact Val Giddings, 6-2289) Commercial Development of Tests for Human Genetic Diseases (Workshop) (Contact Tony Holtzman, 6-2070) Human Biological Materials in Research and Commerce (Background Paper) (Contact Gladys White, 6-3883) Request or Affirmation of Interest: House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John D. Dingell, Chairman Senate Committee on the Budget Hon. Lawton Chiles, Ranking Minority Member

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36 Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Hon. Dave Durenberger, Chairman, Subcommittee on Toxic Substances and Environmental Oversight Project Director: Gary Ellis, 6-2099 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: April 1988 INFERTILITY PREVENTION AND TREATMENT -Infertility affects one in six American couples. About one million of these couples seek the help of doctors and infertility clinics each year. The health-care costs of infertility have been estimated to be at least $200 million annually and may be closer to $1 billion, virtually all from the private sector. A majority of infertile adults can be effectively treated with newly developed microsurgical techniques and/or fertility drugs. In addition, artificial insemination results 1n the birth of some 10,000-20,000 children each year in the U.S. Since 1978, other new techniques of conception have brought hope to childless couples. For example, through mid-1985, some 800 infants have been born with the help of approximately 200 fertilization clinics around the world (including 122 clinics in 35 States and the District of Columbia) that use in vitro techniques. Both the number of clinics in operation and the number of infants born with the help of these methods are rising steadily, mirroring the popular demand for, and technical success of, reproductive therapy. Various concerns have been raised, including whether some clinics misrepresent their success rates, leading to consumer fraud, Public health concerns have arisen over the failure of most artificial insemination practitioners to screen sperm donors for sexually or genetically transmitted diseases. Societal custom, law, and regulation are largely unequipped to handle the rapidly changing, novel social and biological opportunities and relationships offered by innovative reproductive technologies. This assessment will cover six principal areas: (1) Technologies to prevent infertility. The assessment will describe causes of infertility and will discuss approaches to prevention. Existing and anticipated technologies to prevent infertility will be addressed. (2) Technologies to diagnose infertility. The report will describe the diagnostic technologies and techniques used to identify the existence and cause of an individual's infertility, Anticipated advances in infertility diagnostics will be discussed. (3) Technologies to treat infertility. The assessment will also describe existing and anticipated technologies for assisting human reproduction (e.g., therapeutic drugs, microsurgery, artificial insemination, in vitro fertilization, embryo transfer, surrogate motherhood, freezing of germ cells and embryos), as well as ancillary reproductive technologies (e.g., sex-selection). Medical screening of donors for genetic and sexually transmitted diseases will also be addressed. (4) Federal and State regulation of reproductive technologies. What protection from genetic and other injuries does the law offer the various parties who participate in medically-assisted reproduction? Is this protection sufficient? In addition, the report will discuss the effect of Federal policy on the quality and/or availability of infertility therapies in the

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-37 -United States. (5) Veterans' issues. What are the special reproductive problems of veterans? How is service-connected infertility being addressed by the Veterans' Administration? What would be the advantages and disadvantages of providing infertility treatment in VA facilities? (6) Other issues. State laws governing a child's legitimacy, custody, inheritance rights, support, and adoption will be addressed insofar as some types of infertility treatment raise special issues. The assessment will also address whether access to these therapies can constitutionally be limited. Request or Affirmation of Interest: Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs Hon. Frank Murkowski, Chairman House Committee on Government Operations Hon. Ted Weiss, Chairman, Subcommittee on Intergovernmental Relations and Human Resources Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Hon. Albert Gore, Jr., Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on the Civil Service, Post Office and General Service Project Director: Gary Ellis, 6-2099 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: November 1987 Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division NEW COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY: IMPLICATIONS FOR PRIVACY AND SECURITY The Federal Government, the largest single user of information technology equipment, is facing major changes in the nature and uses of communications technology. New generations of products --such as local and wide area networks, software-controlled switching, digital communications integrated with computers, and satellite and fiber optic transmission --each bring much greater capability to managers and users for accessing, manipulating, and transmitting information. In addition, the government, like the private sector, is rapidly expanding the number of ways in which it uses information technology to accomplish its business. These new capabilities and uses challenge the integrity of the government's information system. This study is evaluating two sets of these challenges that are essentially opposite sides of the same coin; the implications of increasingly advanced telecommunications systems for the privacy of workers; and the security and vulnerability of these systems to unauthorized use. The study examines new and prospective capabilities of communications technology, assesses their impact on privacy and security, and analyzes how the combination of technical, administrative, and legal safeguards can cope with privacy and security implications.

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38 -Requesters: House Committee on Government Operations Hon. Jack Brooks, Chairman House Committee on the Judiciary Hon. Don Edwards, Chairman, Subcommittee on Civil and Constitutional Rights Project Director: Charles Wilk, 6-2240 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: September 1986 TECHNOLOGY, PUBLIC POLICY, AND THE CHANGING NATURE OF FEDERAL INFORMATION DISSEMINATION Use of information technology such as electronic document filing, computer-aided surveys, computerized databases, optical disks, electronic mail, electronic remote printing, and electronic bulletin boards -is already affecting and could ultimately revolutionize the public information functions of government. However, the use of such technology is complicated because of tensions involving public information, management efficiency and cost reduction, and private sector cooperation and competition. This study will: identify and describe the current institutional base for federal dissemination of public information; assess the current technological base and relevant future technological developments; evaluate present and future public information needs and how technology might help meet such needs; and identify and analyze key issues and options. These will include, for example, possible future public information roles of the Government Printing Office, executive agencies, libraries, and private firms; policies for public access to and dissemination of federal information, including policies on the depository library and statistical systems; and opportunities for innovative use of information technology in, for example, electronic remote printing of federal reports, electronic access to federal data bases used in decision support systems, and scientific and technical information exchange. Requesters: Joint Committee on Printing Hon. Charles McC. Mathias, Chairman Hon. Frank Annunzio, Vice Chairman House Committee on Government Operations Hon. Glenn English, Chairman, Subcommittee on Government Information, Justice, and Agriculture Project Director: Fred Wood, 226-2244 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: November 1987 WASTES IN THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT: THEIR MANAGEMENT AND DISPOSAL --Due to lower disposal costs relative to other alternatives, and increasing public opposition to land-based disposal alternatives, it

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39 -is likely that pressure to use the ocean for waste disposal will continue or increase. As coastal areas of the United States have become more developed, the amounts of sewage sludge generated from municipal treatment plants and of dredged material from ports and harbors have increased. Disposal of both waste types, especially sewage sludge, at ocean dumpsites has been controversial but also has increased markedly in the last few decades. There also have been proposals to use the oceans for the disposal of different types of nuclear waste and for at-sea incineration of hazardous synthetic organics such as PCB's. The assessment is exam1n1ng the different technologies used or proposed for disposal of different types of waste in the ocean. Primary emphasis is on sewage sludge, dredged material, low-and high-level radioactive waste, and some industrial wastes that are compatible with ocean disposal. The study is addressing policy issues related to the role of the oceans within an overall waste management context, alternative strategies for managing these wastes in coastal areas, the pretreatment of wastes prior to disposal, and research and development priorities. The environmental, economic, international, and institutional implications of different policy options will be evaluated. Interim Deliverable: Subseabed Disposal of High-Level Radioactive Waste (Staff Paper; May 1986) Ocean Incineration: Role in Managing Hazardous Wastes (In Press) Requesters: House Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries Hon. Walter B. Jones, Chairman Hon. Edwin B. Forsythe, then Ranking Minority Member Hon. Mario Biaggi, Chairman, Subcommittee on Merchant Marine Hon. Norman D'Amours, then Chairman, Subcommittee on Oceanography House Committee on Public Works and Transportation Hon. James J. Howard, Chairman Hon. Gene Snyder, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Robert A. Roe, Chairman, Subcommittee on Water Resources Hon. Arlan Stangeland, Ranking Minority Member, Subcommittee on Water Resources Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. Bob Packwood, then Chairman Hon. Ernest Hollings, Ranking Minority Member Project Director: Howard Levenson, 6-2132 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: October 1986 TECHNOLOGIES TO CONTROL ILLEGAL DRUG TRAFFIC --Control of illegal drugs entering the United States from foreign countries is an important part of federal drug law enforcement efforts. The detection and

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40 seizure of drugs at U.S. borders depends on a number of advanced technologies, including radar and other sensing devices and specialized ships and aircraft. The Customs Service and the Coast Guard, the two agencies with primary responsibility for monitoring U.S. borders, are devoting an increasing share of their resources to intercepting illegal drugs. A number of other federal agencies including the Drug Enforcement Administration, the Border Patrol, the Federal Aviation Administration, and the Department of Defense --assist interdiction programs. Technical and organizational improvements could increase the effectiveness of drug interdiction efforts. There are proposals to purchase additional equipment for Customs Service and Coast Guard programs; to develop and introduce new, more sophisticated technical systems; and to increase military assistance through the loan of military hardware and greater participation of armed forces personnel in drug control act1v1t1es. This assessment is evaluating current and proposed technologies for drug interdiction, their cost-effectiveness, and their most appropriate use in controlling illegal drug traffic. Requesters: Senate Committee on Appropriations Hon. Mark O. Hatfield, Chairman Hon. John C. Stennis, Ranking Minority Member Hon. Alfonse M. D'Amato Hon. Paul Laxalt Hon. James Abdnor Hon. Mark Andrews Hon. Ernest F. Hollings Hon. Lawton Chiles Hon. Dennis DeConcini Hon. Daniel K. Inouye Project Director: Peter Johnson, 6-2066 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: December 1986 TECHNOLOGIES FOR EXPLORING AND DEVELOPING SEABED RESOURCES IN THE EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONES -The United States assumed control of ocean resources within 3 billion acres of the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) seaward 200 miles in 1983. Prospects for petroleum and non-fuel mineral resources within the EEZ are considered to be high, but little is actually known of the seabed resource potential within this vast area. Exploration and survey of the EEZ requires highly sophisticated remote sensing both above and below the ocean. The job is enormous and is expected to be very expensive. Several questions are key to the assessment and development of living and non-living resources and the protection of the marine environment: 1) What is currently known about marine resources and their associated environments in the EEZ; 2) What are the current act1v1t1es in charting, surveying, exploring, and conducting research in the EEZ; 3) What technologies are required to explore and develop marine resources; 4) What would be needed to ensure environmental protection in the event of seabed development; 5) In what economic context should the marine resources of the EEZ be

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-41 -placed in reference to world markets and the economy; and 6) Are there international implications for developing seabed resources 1n the margins of the EEZ. Requesters: House Committee on Merchant Marine and Fisheries Hon. Walter B. Jones, Chairman Hon. Barbara A. Mikulski, Chairwoman, Subcommittee on Oceanography Hon. Mike Lowry, Chairman, Subcommittee on Panama Cana/Outer Continental Shelf House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Project Director: James Curlin, 6-2077 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: April 1987 SUSTAINING THE NATIONAL TECHNOLOGICAL BASE: EDUCATION AND EMPLOYMENT OF SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS -This study will identify and analyze factors affecting the education and employment of scientists and engineers over the next two decades. The objective of this analysis is to describe the dynamic interactions between public policies, private actions, and the nation's changing research work force. The first part of the study will review supply and demand data, models, and projections for individual scientific and e~gineering disciplines. It will compare different fields and investigate the usefulness of existing data collection and forecasting methods. Key trends and factors shaping supply and demand for scientific and engineering disciplines will be identified. These factors will be analyzed in detail in the second part of the study. The analysis will focus on undergraduate and graduate education, the primary source of new scientists and engineers; and on academic and industrial needs for faculty and researchers, which dominate demand for scientists and engineers. Requesters: House Committee on Science and Technology Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman Project Director: Nancy Naismith, 226-2214 Projected Delivery Date to TAB: December 1987 SPECIAL RESPONSES ADVANCE NOTICE FOR PLANT CLOSINGS AND MASS LAYOFFS {Workshop/Staff Paper) --(Requested by: Congressman William D. Ford, Congressman William Clay; Congressman Silvio O. Conte; and Senator Orrin G. Hatch)

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-42 -Project Director: Julie Gorte, 6-2205 Projected Completion Date: July 1986 LEGAL ASPECTS OF SPACE STATIONS (Workshop) -(Requested by: Senate Committee on Science, Commerce, and Transporatation, Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space, Hon. John C. Danforth, Chairman, Hon. Ernest F. Hollings, Hon. Slade Gorton, Hon. Donald W. Riegle, Jr.) Project Director: Richard Dalbello, 6-2059 Projected Completion Date: July 1986 U.S. GRAIN HANDLING TECHNOLOGIES AND EXPORT QUALITY STANDARDS: PART I) --(Mandated by the Food Security Act of 1985) Project Director: Mike Phillips, 6-2189 Projected Completion Date: July 1986 PHYSICIAN PAYMENT REVIEW COMMISSION ACTIVITIES (Mandated by Public Law 99-272.) Project Director: Clyde Behney, 226-2070 Projected Completion Date: Indeterminate PROSPECTIVE PAYMENT ASSESSMENT COMMISSION (Mandated by Public Law 98-21, Section 601.) Project Director: Anne Burns, 6-2070 Projected Completion Date: Indeterminate NURSE PRACTITIONERS, CERTIFIED NURSE MIDWIVES, AND PHYSICIANS ASSISTANTS: QUALITY, ACCESS, ECONOMIC, AND PAYMENT ISSUES (Case Study) --(Requested by: Senate Committee on Appropriations, Hon. Mark Hatfield, Chairman; Hon. Daniel K. Inouye.) Project Director: Gloria Ruby, 6-2070 Projected Completion Date: August 1986 MENTAL HEALTH SERVICES FOR CHILDREN (Background Paper) --(Requested by: Senate Committee on Appropriations, Hon. Mark Hatfield, Chairman; Hon. Daniel Inouye.) Project Director: Denise Dougherty, 6-2070 Projected Completion Date: In press MONITORING OF AIDS-RELATED ACTIVITIES --(Requested by: Hon. Henry A. Waxman, Chairman, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment, House Committee on Energy and Commerce; Hon. Ted Weiss, Chairman, Subcommittee on Intergovernmental Relations and Human Resources, House Committee on Government Operations. Project Director: Larry Miike, 6-2070 Projected Completion Date: Indeterminate

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-43 -CARCINOGEN REGULATORY POLICY (Technical Memorandum) --(Requested by: House Committee on Government Operations, Hon. Jack Brooks, Chairman, and Chairman Weiss, Subcommittee on Intergovernmental Relations and Human Resources) Project Director: Karl Kronebusch, 6-2070 Projected Completion Date: November 1986 REVIEW OF DEFENSE DEPARTMENT'S POLYGRAPH TEST AND RESEARCH PROGRAMS (Staff Paper) -(Requested by: House Committee on Government Operations, Hon. Jack Brooks) Project Director: Denise Dougherty, 6-2070 Projected Completion Date: September 1986 HEALTH STATUS OF NATIVE HAWAIIANS (Staff Paper) -(Requested by: Senate Select Committee on Indian Affairs) Project Director: Larry Miike, 6-2070 Projected Completion Date: August 1986 ARTIFICAL INTELLIGENCE R&D (Staff Paper) --(Requested by: House Committee on Science and Technology, Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman.) Project Director: Fred Weingarten Projected Completion Date: August 1986 MACHINE TRANSLATION OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL INFORMATION (Background Paper) --(Requested by: House Committee on Science and Technology, Hon. Don Fuqua, Chairman, and Hon. Manuel Lujan, Ranking Minority Member) Project Director: Fred Weingarten, 6-2240 Projected Completion Date: August 1986 THE STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF STANDARDIZED TESTS AS MEASUREMENT TOOLS FOR FEDERAL EDUCATION POLICY (Technical Memorandum) --(Requested by: Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources, Hon. Orrin G. Hatch, Chairman, Hon. Edward Kennedy, Ranking Minority Member.) Project Director: Nancy Naismith, 6-2214 Projected Completion Date: August 1986

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44 II. E. New Assessments Approved During the Quarter Full Assesssments 0 0 0 Technological Risks and Opportunities for Future U.S. Energy Supply and Demand (5/13/86) Technology, Public Policy, and the Changing Nature of Federal Information Dissemination (5/13/86) Sustaining the National Technological Base: Education and Employment of Scientists and Engineers (S/13/86) Special Activities o Physician Payment Review Committee Activities (5/13/86)

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Publication Briefs

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1 OTA REPORT BRIEF April 1986 Intellectual Property Rights in an Age of Electronics and Information The changes that new technologies are making in the way that information is created, distributed, and used today are as fundamental as the changes made by the printing press. These changes are undermining many of the mechanisms by which the U.S. intellec tual property system has operated in the past. Although Congress could make some changes now to relieve im mediate problems, over the next 10 years substantial changes in the system will be required if it is to meet its original goals laid out in the Constitution-fostering science and the useful arts and encouraging the dissem ination of information and knowledge to the public. Originally, the implementation of intellectual prop erty-law, and particularly copyright law, was relatively simple. The Government granted copyrights to authors and patents to inventors. Rewards were determined in the marketplace. The patent and copyright holders, themselves, monitored infringements and enforced their rights through the courts. Individuals' interests coincided with the public's interest-to profit from copyright, an author had to print his works and sell them; to profit from a patent, the inventor had to dis close his ideas to the public. Today, technological change is complicating the in tellectual property system. The problems raised by computer, communications, and other information technologies include: Authorship: Copyright law, based on originality of works and individual authorship, may become too unwieldy to administer when works involve many authors, worldwide collaboration, and dy namically changing materials. Enforcement: Vast amounts of copyrighted ma terials can be copied, reprocessed and traded with out the knowledge or permission of rights holders. Private Use: Current law is ambiguous about whether private reproduction and transmission of vast quantities of copyrighted works should be allowed. Functional Works: New kinds of intellectual prop erty that uses information in a process (for exam ple, computer software), which OTA calls func tional works, are obscuring the traditional distinction between patentable inventions and copyrightable writings. Derivative Use: The repackaging of information and creation of new information products, made possible by new technologies, raises questions about whether the original copyright holder should control all these new uses. Intangible Works: Electronic distribution of intellectual works may lead to tighter control over public access to information. Educational Goals: Copyright may fail to meet its intended educational goals because informa tion is increasingly being sold rather than shared, and some of it may become too expensive for educational institutions. Integrity: New technologies may be used to mis represent or distort the work of an artist without the knowledge of the original creator. International Coordination: The globalization of information markets increasingly requires inter national cooperation in framing intellectual prop erty law and policy. These problems have no simple answers. A solution to one problem is likely to cause another. Moreover, because technology is spawning many new kinds of intellectual works, a single policy tool, such as copy right law, may be less effective than in the past in meet ing policy goals. Our understanding of how the system now operates is extremely limited and technology is still changing. It is bringing new parties into the intellectual property debate and making information a critical factor for the economy and for society as a whole. Not surprisingly, the decisions that Congress makes about intellectual property policy will affect a broad range of other pol icy areas: communications, trade and international af fairs, privacy, antitrust, education, public information, research and development, and tax policy. In making decisions about intellectual property policy, therefore, Congress will need to take into account new issues and new stakeholders and assure the coordination of pol icymaking among diverse policy areas. Given the numerous uncertainties about the intel lectual property system and its likely evolution, it is too early to make major revisions in the law. How ever, if Congress is to devise a sound intellectual prop erty policy for the future, it must begin now to estab lish a mechanism to collect and evaluate information about how the system works and where it may be head ing. Since no government agency is presently con stituted to undertake such a comprehensive task, some institutional change is likely to be required. Copies of the OT A report, "Intellectual Property Rights in an Age of Electronics and Information," are available from the U.S. Government Printing Office. The GPO stock num ber is 052-003-01036-4; the price is 515. 00. Copies of the report for congressional use are available by calling 4-8996. Summaries of reports are available at no charge from the Office of Technology Assessment. The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA} is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress whose basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OTA, U.S. Congress, Washington, DC 20510. Phone: 202/224-9241. John H. Gibbons, Director.

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1 OTA REPORT BRIEF April 1986 The health of American Indians and Alaska Natives has improved substantially since responsibility for Federal health services to Indians was transferred from the Department of the Interior to the Public Health Serv ice's Indian Health Service (IHS) in 1955, but Indians still lag behind the general U.S. population, and wide variations exist in mortality rates among Indians served by IHS. In 1980-82, the average age-adjusted mortality rate for Indians residing in IHS service areas was 1.4 times that of the general U.S. population, with every IHS area except Oklahoma above the U.S. aver age. Perhaps the most significant general indicator of Indian health status is that Indians do not live as long as other U.S. populations. In 1980 to 1982, 37 percent of Indian deaths occurred before age 45, compared with only U percent of all U.S. deaths in that age group. Despite higher mortality among Indians, they are hospitalized at rates below those of the general U.S. population. Also, although the average age of the In dian population has increased, their hospitalization rates have been decreasing. These findings imply that access to health care for Indians has decreased. In the 1980 census, 278 reservations and 209 Alaska Native Villages were counted, and 1.4 million persons were self-identified as Indians, Eskimos, or Aleuts. Fifty-four percent lived in central cities or in urban areas. Thirty-seven percent actually lived inside iden tified Indian areas (e.g., reservations, tribal trust lands). Ten reservations accounted for 49 percent of all reservation residents. Four States had Indian popu lations in excess of 100,000: California, Oklahoma, Arizona, and New Mexico. In 1980, the poverty rate for American Indians throughout the United States was 27.5 percent, more than twice the rate of 12.4 percent for the general U.S. population; among reservation Indians, the poverty rate was 44.8 percent. Unemployment rates followed a similar pattern: 13.Cl percent for American Indians, 27.8 percent for reservation Indians, and 6.5 percent for the general U.S. population. Services provided to Indians by !HS are based on the political relationship between the Federal Govern ment and Indian tribes and are not based on racial identity. Thus, IHS services are directed primarily at Indians living on or near the reservations of federally recognized tribes. States that contain one or more reservations of federally recognized tribes are desig-Indian Health Care nated as 'reservation States' by !HS, and there were 32 such States as ot 1986. IHS serves an Indian population estimated at 987,000 in 1986. Services that cannot be provided through IHS or tribal facilities are purchased through contracts with non-IHS providers. The availability of health services may vary considerably among IHS service areas. Some areas are more dependent on con tract care, with a few areas without IHS or tribal hospi tals and therefore dependent on non-IHS hospitals. These areas sometimes are forced to defer or deny needed services because funds for contract care are limited. Key issues identified in the report include the possi bility of redefining which Indians should be eligible for Federal health care; achieving a more equitable al location of resources among IHS service areas; cost containment, especially in the contract care program; and implementation of self-determination legislation enacted by Congress in 1975, under which tribes are encouraged to assume management of Federal services provided to them. Indian health programs are partially protected from the Balanced Budget and Deficit Control Act, with reductions limited to 1 percent in fiscal year 1986 and 2 percent in subsequent years. In fiscal year 1985, IHS's total appropriations (excluding facilities' construction) was $807 million, of which $637 million was spent on clinical services, with the remainder spent on preven tive health programs and other activities such as ur ban projects, manpower training, and administrative costs. The report assembles data from many sources, some of which are not readily available elsewhere. It presents an overview of the Federal-Indian relationship; pro vides demographic and socioeconomic information on the Indian population; analyzes the health status and health problems of Indians by IHS service areas; and describes the sources of Indian health care, with em phasis on services provided or paid for by IHS. Copies of the OT A report, "Indian Health Care," are avail able from the U.S. Go1Jerrtment Printing Office. The GPO stock number is 052-003-01033-0: the price is 516. 00. Copies of the report for congressional use are r.:wailable by calling 4-8996. Summaries of reports are available at no charge from the Office of Technology Assessment. (over) The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress whose basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OTA, U.S. Congress, Washington, DC 20510. Phone: 202/224-9241. John H. Gibbons, Director.

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Figure 1.-Federally Recognized Indian Reservations and Alaska Native Regional Corporations, 1985 SOURCE: Native American Science Education Association, 1986. Figure 2.-lndian Health Service Population by Area Total Service Population, Fiscal Year 1986 Estimate: 987,017 SOURCE: U.S. Deoanment of Health and Human Sar,,ces. Public Health Ser11ce. Health F>esources and Ser1ices Administration, Indian Health Ser-11ce, ?ooulation Slat1st1cs Start.

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OTA REPORT BRIEF June 1986 Western Surface Mine Permitting and Reclamation The coal industry has learned much about reclama tion in the arid Western U.S. coal fields since passage of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977 (SMCRA), and the prognosis for the long-term success of the reclamation of Western surface mined lands has brightened considerably. Some significant uncertainties about Western reclamation remain, how ever. These arise primarily because the unusual geol ogy, soils, hydrology, and ecology of the West limit the ability to predict the impacts of mining and to de sign reclamation. For example, the complex geology of some Western coal fields makes it difficult to locate potentially acid-, alkaline-, or toxic-forming strata of rock and other ma terial overlying the coal ("overburden"). These mate rials could adversely affect postmining water quality or revegetation if they were placed in the water table or root zone when the pit is filled after mining. Simi larly, the slow rate at which groundwater returns to some aquifers may limit the evaluation of plans for restoring water resources until years after the perform ance bonds required by SMCRA have been released. Mine operators can reduce these uncertainties to some extent through knowledge gained about the mine-site geology and water resources during mining, and by monitoring the progress of reclamation. Research on techniques for characterizing overburden and on groundwater recharge rates would reduce the uncertainty further. Other uncertainties about Western reclamation con cern problems with baseline and monitoring data, with evaluating reclamation success, with unresolved tech nical issues about reclamation methods, and with reclamation research and innovation. The quantity and quality of data on Western reclamation have in creased dramatically since SMCRA. However, data problems still limit the accuracy and efficiency of recla mation planning and evaluation. The large quantity of data being collected has created serious data man agement problems for mine operators and regulators. The lack of standardized or computer accessible for mats for the data also makes it difficult for regulators to review and analyze the information, and compli cates regional assessments (particularly of cumulative hydrologic impacts). Moreover, useful data still are difficult to collect for some aspects of reclamation, either because collection methods are unreliable or are not standardized, or there are natural obstacles to data collection. For example, standardized methods are needed for collect ing data on flow and water quality in ephemeral (sea sonal) streams, and on the quality of wildlife habitats. Uncertainties introduced by shortcomings in data management and analysis are compounded by the lack of criteria for evaluating the success of Western recla mation. Criteria have been formulated only for the first phase of bond release-backfilling the pit-in the five States studied (Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, and Wyoming). Furthermore, existing methods for judging postmining hydrology and re vegetation have serious limitations, yet revegetation and hydrologic restoration are used as the primary in dicators of success for soils, overburden, and wildlife. Six outstanding technical issues about Western recla mation methods are: the unreliability of methods for predicting the acid-forming potential of Western mine spoils; the need for additional data to demonstrate that other methods of sediment control are as effec tive as sedimentation ponds and will have fewer adverse impacts; the importance for revegetation of optimizing use of the soil resource, and the constraints on soils optimization; the ability to meet uniform high shrub (e.g., sage brush) revegetation standards, and whether lower overall shrub densities would resolve postmining conflicts between wildlife habitat and rangeland; the minimum attention paid to characterizing postmining land uses, and the resulting increase in land use conflicts; and the need to establish the value of landscape diversity. Additional research could resolve most of the un certainties about Western surface mine reclamation, and thus could increase the probability of reclamation success with fewer design problems and lower costs. However, cutbacks in Federal funding have signifi cantly reduced reclamation research. Moreover, there are few vehicles for disseminating reclamation research results. This has led to delays in the approval of ad vanced reclamation techniques. The Office of Surface Mining's inflexible application of some reclamation standards, and its strict interpretation of SMCRA's provision for experimental practices, also have inhibited the adoption of innovative reclamation methods. Copies of the OTA report, "Western Surface Mine Per mitting and Reclamation," are available from the U.S. Gov ernment Pn'nting Office. The GPO stock number is 052-00301025-9; the price is $13.00. Copies of the report for congressional use are available by calling 4-8996. Summaries of reports are available at no charge from the Office of Tech nology Assessment. (over) The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress whose basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OTA, U.S. Congress, Washington, DC 20510. Phone: 202/224-9241. John H. Gibbons, Director.

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Summary of Principal Policy Options Option Resolving uncertainty: Analyze monitoring data to improve the accuracy of predictive and design methods Data adequacy and management: Standardize data collection methods and data formats Develop a scoping process to focus baseline and monitoring data collection Develop integrated computer databases from permits and other data sources Evaluating reclamation-success: Evaluate Phase II and Ill bond release criteria Establish procedure for periodic reexamination of bond release criteria Technical Issues: Develop a valid test for acid-base potential in Western overburden Collect data on sedimentation and control methods Promote optimization of the soil resource Reexamine wood plant density standards Enforce postmining land use characterization requirements and ensure OSM/BLM coordination on implementation Research the costs and benefits of landscape diversity Innovation and research: Clarify regulatory policy on experimental practices vs. alternate reclamation techniques Establish strict schedules for approval of experimental practices Increase appropriations and/or develop new avenues for funding research Establish mechanism for disseminating research results Establish cooperative Western reclamation research organization SOURCE: Office of Technology A55essment. Potential costs and benefits Higher cost of analysis Better reclamation design Greater certainty Initial cost of analyzing methods Less flexibility but also possibly lower costs for industry Lower costs and increased efficiency for industry and agency data collection and analysis Initial cost very high Long-term reduction in data-collection costs and increased efficiency for all affected agencies and permit applicants Initial cost of rulemaking and oversight Greater regulatory certainty Moderate initial cost of analysis and rulemaking Incorporate advances in reclamation science in evaluations Moderate research cost Greater certainty of reclamation success Data collection costs high Fewer adverse surface water impacts Lower reclamation costs in some areas Lower reclamation costs Improved prospects for reclamation success Lower reclamation costs Improved prospects for reclamation success Slightly higher permit review costs Fewer land use conflicts Greater certainty Long-term benefits in ecosystem function and viability Moderate research cost Lower reclamation costs Greater regulatory efficiency Better reclamation Lower review costs Greater regulatory efficiency Increased use of experimental practice option Less strict review Higher research costs Improved prospects for reclamation success Better reclamation design Potentially high publication cost, depending on subscription rate Voluntary industry funding Improved prospects tor reclamation success

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OTA REPORT BRIEF June 1986 Electronic Record Systems and Individual Privacy the Federal Government maintains over 3 billion records containing personal information in fully or partially computerized record systems. The wide spread and still growing use of computerized data bases, electronic record searches and matches, and computer networking is leading rapidly to the crea tion of a de facto national database containing substantial personal information on most Americans. Use of the social security number as a de facto national identifier is facilitating the development of this database. Technological advances have opened up new pos sibilities for improving the efficiency of government recordkeeping; the detection and prevention of fraud, waste, and abuse; and law enforcement investigations. At the same time, the opportunities for inappropriate, unauthorized, or illegal access to and use of personal information have expanded. New means of manipulat ing and analyzing computerized records have eroded the protections established by Congress in the Privacy Act of 1974, and especially have undermined the long standing policy that the government's need for infor mation be balanced against the need to protect indi vidual privacy. These new means include: Computer matching, the comparison of two or more computerized record systems to search for individuals who appear in more than one of them, is used by agencies to detect fraud, waste, and abuse. In the process, however, information is sometimes used for purposes other than those for which it was originally collected, a result dis couraged by the Privacy Act. Over the last S years, Federal computer matching programs have tripled in number, involving about 2 billion differ ent records. Computer-assisted front--end verification, the cer tification of the accuracy and completeness of information provided by an individual by check' ing similar information in computerized data: bases, is used to prevent ineligible people from receiving benefits. Such verification requires cen tralized databases, accessible at a distance through telecommunication lines. This increases the op portunities for improper disclosure and exchange of personal information. Computer profiling, a search of a record system for a specified combination of characteristics of interest to an agency, may aid in investigations (e.g., use by the Internal Revenue Service to iden tify income tax evaders). B1,1t profiling may result in people being treated as suspect before they have done anything to warrant such treatment, and without their being made aware of being singled out. Most significantly, there is little or no oversight or consideration of the privacy implications of Federal electronic record systems. Under the Privacy Act, the Office of Management and Budget (0MB) is assigned responsibility for governmentwide oversight. 0MB is not effectively monitoring such basic areas as: the quality (completeness and accuracy) of personal records; the protection of personal records in systems accessible by microcomputers; the cost-effectiveness of computer matching and similar applications; and the resources devoted to Privacy Act implementation. In addition, individuals have no easy way to see or correct their personal records stored in Federal sys tems. Furthermore, neither the executive branch nor Congress provides a forum in which the privacy, management efficiency, and law enforcement implications of Federal electronic record system applications can be debated and resolved. Without such a forum, agen cies have little incentive to consider privacy concerns in their use of personal record systems. OT A has identified a number of policy actions for congressional consideration, ranging from taking no action to making changes in laws and institutions. Tak ing no action would continue the uncertainty regard ing individual rights and agency responsibilities and the lack of effective oversight of agency practices. In addition, issues surrounding the de facto national data base and national identifier would remain unresolved. Possible congressional actions analyzed by OT A include: 1. Initiating institutional adjustments to improve oversight, e.g., strengthen the role of 0MB, in crease the Privacy Act staff in agencies, and/ or improve congressional organization and proce(over) The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) is an analytical arm of the U.S. Congress whose basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OTA, U.S. Congress, Washington, DC 20510. Phone: 202/224-9241. John H. Gibbons, Director.

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dures for consideration of information privacy issues. Additionally or separately, Congress could establish a new oversight or ombudsman mechanism such as a Data Protection Board or Privacy Commission. 2. Considering a number of problem-specific ac tions. For example: -establish direct statutory control over Federal agency use of matching, front-end verification, and profiling; -require controls on the use of microcomputers to access personal information in order to protect its privacy, confidentiality, and security; -legislate more specific guidelines and require ments for accuracy and completeness of data/ records containing personal information; or -review issues concerning use of the social security number as a de facto national identifier and, if necessary, restrict its use or legislate a new universal identification number. 3. Providing for systematic study of the broader so cial, economic, and political context of informa tion policy, of which information privacy is a part, for example by establishing a national study commission. This report is the third component of the OT A assessment of "Federal Government Information Tech nology: Congressional Oversight and Civil Liberties." Other components include Electronic Surveillance and Civil Liberties (published in October 1985) and Man agement, Security, and Congressional Oversight (pub lished in February 1986). Copies of the OT A report, "Federal Government Infor mation Technology: Electronic Record Systems and Individ ual Privacy," are available from the U.S. Government Print ing Office. The GPO stock number is 052-003-01038-l; the price is $7.50. Copies of the report for congressional use are available by calling 4-9241.

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Selected News Clips on OTA Publications and Activities The following is a representative sample (about 3.5%) of the clippings received during the last quarter. These clippings refer to 33 different OTA publications. Members of Congress participated in the public release of 6 of the 7 studies issued this quarter. OTA Assessment Reports: Western Surface Mine Permitting and Reclamation Indian Health Care Intellectual Property Rights in an Age of Electronics and Information Federal Government Information Technology: Electronic Record Systems and lndvidual Privacy Federal Government Information Technology: Management, Security, and Congressional Oversight Federal Government Information Technology: Electronic Surveillance and Civil Liberties Technology, Public Policy, and the Changing Structure of American Agriculture Transportation of Hazardous Materials: State and Local Activities Status of Biomedical Research and Related Technology for Tropical Diseases Medicare's Prospective Payment System: Strategies for Evaluating Cost, Quality, and Medical Technology Automation of America's Offices Acid Rain and Transported Air Pollutants: Implications for Public Policy Payment for Physicians Services: Strategies for Medicare Managing the Nation's Commercial High-Level Radioactive Waste Technology and Aging in America Reproductive Health Hazards in the Workplace Preventing Illness and Injury in the Workplace Strategic Materials: Technologies to Reduce U.S. Import Vulnerability Superfund Strategy Protecting the Nation's Groundwater from Contamination Nuclear Power in an Age of Uncertainty High Technology Ceramics and Polymer Composites (ongoing assessment) OTA Technical Memoranda, Background Papers, and Other Documents: Research Funding as an Investment (Technical Memorandum) The Regulatory Environment for Science (Technical Memorandum) Demographic Trends and the Scientific and Engineering Work Force (Technical Memorandum) Scientific Validity of Polygraph Testing (Technical Memorandum) Hearing Impairment and Elderly People (Background paper) Assessing Biological Diversity in the U.S.: Data Considerations (Background Paper) Grassroots Conservation of Biological Diversity in the United States (Background Paper) Microelectronics Research and Development (Background Paper) Directed Energy Missile Defense in Space (Background Paper) Supercomputers: Government Plans and Policies Effects of Federal Policies on Extracorporeal Shock Wave Lithotripsy (Case Study) Hemodialysis Equipment (Case Study) Passive Smoking (Staff Paper) Bio Expo '86 Award Command, Control, Communications, and Intelligence Systems

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G /:J'-f /SG I Strip Mining in West_ l Is Seen as Reversible\' AiY WASHINGTON, June 23 (AP) Most strip-mined land in the West can be reclaimed, a Congressional agency said Sunday, but it said not all technical questions were settled. ii tf Particular attention should be given to diversity of vegetation and land1' scape in a reclaimed area, the agency,! the Office of Technology Asssessment, ; said in a report. i' The requirement in current law that 1 mined areas be restored to "approxi-' mate original contour" has generally resulted in gently rolling land with lit-; tie topograpfiic variety, the study said.' 1 But certain features may be important 1 to local water flow or wildlife, it said. "Some landforms e.g., hogback: ridges and badlands -are impossible' to re-establish, and others may be too,. costly or difficult for all but the most i elaborate restoration plans," the report said. "Many others can, however, be mimicked in the post-mining topography e.g., a section of unreduced highwall creates an artificial cliff that simulates rimrock." J-1-

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RIVERSIDE CA PRESS-ENTERPRISE (EVENING) 34,505 JUN 12 1986 8is~~~~f Government to attempt Indian-blood definition ~iq1v By WIUIAM KRONHOLM The Associated Press WASHINGTON The government ls proposing to define for the first time which Indians are eligible for free medical care, an effort some congressional experts say carries dangerous racial overtones. The Indian Health Service, which provides care tor 961,000 Indians nationWide at a cost of $791 million, wants to limit eligi bility to those with at least one fourth Indian blood. For those belonging to tribes not formally recognized by the government, or who are of mixed Indian background making them ineligible for tribal membership, the standard would be one-half Indian blood. At present, there is no nrm definition of what constitutes an Indian for purposes of getting government-paid care. The IHS requires only that a person be of Indian descent and be recognized as an Indian by the tribal communlty. In essence, that leaves the decisions to the tribes themselves. Many tribes already use the one-fourth Indian blood standard as their own guide for determtn ing eligibility for tribal member ship. But the imposition of such a standard by the government, par ticularly on tribes that don't follow the standard, may raise ques tions of racial discrimination and certainly Will offend tribes sensi tive to interference by the govern ment in Indian affairs. The IHS, in announcing the proposal Tuesday, said It would allow the agency "to better focus its services for those who qualify for UIS care." But new restrictions have been expected to control the spiraling cost of Indian health care that has resulted as the IHS ser vice population has risen from 587,468 in 1975 to 961,582 in 1985. Part of the problem involves tribes that do not impose a blood standard for members, but instead operate on the principle of "descendancy." Anyone descend ed from a tribal member also is considered a member of the tribe, regardless of his non-Indian an cestry. That means the number of potential beneficiaries can rise geometrically, as tribal members marry outside the tribe and give birth to children With lessening percentages of Indian blood, but still considered Indians. The congress_ional Office_ of Technology_ Assessmfilll_earlier this year predicted the possibility of imposing a blood standard for health care as one way of control ling costs, and said a battle over the provision was likely. The OT A noted that a blood standard would be controversial in part "because the federal-Indi an relationship is based on politi cal, not racial, factors. Moreover, blood quantum as a standard for providing services comes factually close to a suspect racial classi fication under constitutional law." Besides the "racial over tones," the OTA said, such a government-mandated requirement "would be seen as an encroach ment on the authority of tribal governments." The proposal also has practi cal problems. It could mean, for example, that a pregnant Indian woman could give birth to a child ineligi ble for IHS services even if the child needed intensive care immediately after birth but was born in an IHS hospital. The IHS, in issuing the pro posal, noted that it was only a draft and would be subject to four months of public comment. The agency said it will hold public hearings in each of its 12 adminis trative areas.

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AMERICAN MEDICAL NEWS CHICAGO, ILL. V,. 278.700 ;; i v ) .~ l J x !? 6.(/.1_-11[4'S U.S. to turn to private providers for Indians Limited staff, facilities WOUid Federally recognized Indian reservations and Alaskan regions force move The Indian Health Service (IHSI is likelv to become more reliant on private providers perhaps in the very ne-ar foture because oi the growing problem in recruiting and retaining adequate medical staff, coridudes a report that was written by the Qifu:.f-91 Technology Assessment IOTA) !HS, through which 850,000 of the 1.4 mil[ion selt-iden1ified American Indians and Alaskan ~ative-:, now are served, de pends on the Public Health Service's Commissioned Corps and on the service payback obligations of the Natlonal Heal!h Service Corps (NHSCl trainees. Because the ~HSC program is being eliminated. the J.ast health personneJ trainees will be avai[able to IHS in 1990, the report said. If !HS stait positions cannot be filled, rHS wil! need to turn more to the services oi pdvale health care practitioners, ac cording to the report. In addition. more medical care likely will be contracted out to the private sector because !HS and lribal network facili ties are limited in the types of services they can provide because of federal bud get constraints and in their limits at delivering "comprehensive and specialty ser vices to widely dispersed. small popula tions.'' the report notes. ServKes oiftred by IHS rnclude outpatient and inpatient medical and dental care, public health nursing and preven tive otfer modified or limited surgerv by alreadr using surge-ons on part-time con tracts Mo'>t 01 the IHS hosprtals are smaller than the avera~e U.S. short-stay com m unitv hosp1 trvite!that are prov1rleci_t0 them throu.~h es1,1bll~h,ed heal!h lclff' df!li\er\ s\~lems, and the problem or' p,ivmg !or contrac1ed medicaJ (art lrlr-nl1f~ing these elt>ments reqwred ma~s1\e d.11,, <.o!letl1n~ along ,.._.ith est1-md:tes ot thl;;' Indian popubtirin becauw thf:' dPfrnition of who i~ an lndi~in v..:me,; ... ........ -drt:f:J-:;~:..-.,_, ... SOURCE: Nati'4 Amertcan Sqlnc Education AMOClatlon, 118&. <1mong tribes and involves a person's perc-entage of Indian blood, tribal membership, or cert.:iin historical refationships with tribes. Self-identification changed th-e Census Bureau's long-standing meth od of censm taking that allowed the bu reau empluye 'to c:hoose which radaj group a person belongs to merely upon observation. The report indicates that the overall health status oi American Indians-has "improved substanti.-illr' smce /HS as sumed responsibdity for Indian health programs in 1955. "'Substantial data inad~ Pquacies,' howevef, are hampering !HS from improving health care, the report said. Indians. it is noter!, do not live as long as olht~ U.S. races. From 1980 to 1982, 37% of Jndian death!> occ:urred in Indians vounger than age 45. compared to only 12% for all U.S. rares. HOSPITAL INPATIENT data showed that in 1 qs-4 threequarters oi IHS pa tients were unde-r 45. while 48{!1o of inpa tients m U.S. short-sltlV, non-federal hos pitals were in !hat age group. These differences fn age distribution are explaint->d by the difference in causes ot illness and death. according to the report. Pneumonia erv1re are:.-as. ven littJe inrormat1un on the health status of Indians li\tng in urb,rn areas 1s available. despite the i,ict thdt thev comtilule about =i4'fo of the tol
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TUCSON,Al Ti:E l\RfZmM 0/\lf.Y STAR n. 13,tlf1iJ s. 11 I .!MO I.A'f !( l(Hl6 Vi ID 1J() Bu~R_ELLE'S Tribes reluctant to provide health care U.S. government still runs, funps most programs ,...., :,.,, ,--) ,'.Y By Enric Volante The Arizona Daily Star A decade after Congress passed a law en couraging tribal management of Indian health services, many tribes remain reluctant or frus trated in their attempts to take over the federal programs, a recent congressional report says. The intent of the Indian Self-Determination Act of 1!>75 should be spelled out to help end dis putes between Indian and federal health authori ties, the report by the Office of Technology Assessment says. The 1975 law marked a major shift in federal Indian policy. It gave tribes more opportunity to contract to manage programs funded and ad n\inistered for them by the federal government, including the programs of the Indian Health Ser vice. But implementing the law has been a thorny task, in part because the IHS interprets it differently from most Indian tribes, according to the report on Indian health care. lnterp"retation in doubt "While the federal government seems to view self-determination primarily as a contracting pro gram, the tribes ... suggest that the intent of the law is to support tribes in taking over and managing their own services," the report says. Although Indians' health generally has im proved since the IHS took over the programs in 1955, the study found their health status "still far behind" that of the rest of the country. The report says Indians do not live as long as do other races in the United States and suffer disproportionately from alcoholism, diabetes, pneumonia and other illnesses. When the law was passed, It was anticipated that tribes would be able to run health programs more efficiently than the IHS. "Paternalism" persists "What this means to the Indian community," said the late Sen. Henry M. Jackson, D-Wash., "is that the heavy hand of paternalism which has do minated the lives and affairs of Indian people for so many years can now be broken." But today only 20 to 30 percent of the clinical services provided by the IHS are contracted to tribes, the report says. In the Albuquerque area, for example, only two of 22 health clinics are tribally run. In general, only tribes that recently received federal recognition mainly in California and the East have contracted to run most or all of their health programs. They include the Tucson area's Pascua Yaqui Tribe, which operates under a unique prepaid funding plan. The report says that other tribes, long accus tomed to services from IHS area offices, have had only "limited involvement" in managing their health care. That includes the Tohono O'odham Nation west of Tucson. Many reasons cited The report lists several apparent reasons: A.lack of administrative experience has led some tribes to proceed slowly, assuming only a few IHS programs. Tribes that want to take over programs are sometimes reluctant because they fear the IHS will provide inadequate funding. Some tribes complain of Inadequate or inaccurate cost data used by the IHS to decide contract awards. ~iven the history of their relationship with the federal government, some Indians fear that shifting administration from the IHS to the tribes is a subterfuge for shirking federal responsibility. There is no clear framework for contesting IHS rulings or self-determination policies. Even Indian employees of the IHS some times resist changing to tribal management be cause tribes generally cannot match the salaries and fringe benefits provided by the federal gov ernment. Recommendations made The report recommends that the health service develop a cost-accounting system to deal with the funding issues. And it recommends that the service, which has made some changes in contract procedures to favor tribes, make more changes if the intent of the law is defined as promoting "ac tive, mea"lingful Indian participation in their health services systems." "Tribal governments and IHS both acknowl edge frustrations with the self-determination pro gram, but there have been no suggestions that it be abandoned," the report says. O'odham tribal officials, however, have pro posed that Congress fund a pilot program in which the tribe would contract for services from private agencies.

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THE NEW YORK TIMES, SUNDAY, MAY 4, 1986 Indians from heart disease and cancer were lower than for the United States U.S. Indians' Heal_th Lags Despite Advances as a whole but that these diseases were t-----------------,--------------the exception. WASHINGTON, May 3 (AP) The States and that Indians continued to die For the 1980-82 period, the report Pneumo~ia and influenza deaths health of Alllerican Indians has imyounger. said, the mortality rate for Indians in among Indians decreased by 50 percent proved markedly over the last 30 years, The Government assumed responsi-areas served by the Indian Health over the last decade, the study said, but but Indians continue to be sicker and bility for Indian health care since the Service was 778.3 for 100,000 populaIndians continue to die of the illnesses die younger than other Americans, a early days of the Republic, when tribes tion, a figure that was 1.4 times that of at twice the rate of other Americans. Congressional study concludes. were declared "domestic dependent the figure for all United.States citizens. Alcoholism continues to be common The Office of Technolo A ss-natio~" and made, in effect, wards of In the same period, the study said, 37 among Indians, as indicated by exment a resea~ch arm of coJDres:s:aid the Umted States. Some were promised percent of all Indian deaths occurred tremely high rates. of cirrhosis of the in a ;ecent re?()rt that shiftTn the rehealth care by treaty; others were among Indians younger than 45 years liver,accordin~tothestudy. Thedeath s nsibillt o(lndian health Jre from granted health care by statute. of age, as against 12 percent for the rate among Indians from cirrhos!s was tre lnterilr ~partment to the Public BuJ the extent of the servi~~ to be overall United States. Nearly three4.2 times higher than the country s gen Health Service in 1955 had meant sigprovided has never been specified, _and fourths of all hospital patients in areas eral rate, the study said. nlficant gains il the health of Indi s the courts have held that Indian tribes served by the Indian Health Service in ~..,;iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii;;;;;;;;;;;;:;:::;;::==--an are entitled only to what Congress is 1984 were under 45, against 48 percent But the tecluology office said that in. willing to give _them. The new study of the patients in non-Federat, short v1rtually all areas served by the Indian suggests that this has not been enough. stay hospitals serving the general Health Service'sickness was still more to bring Indian health care up to the population. common than h the rest of the \Jpited standards of the country. The study found that deaths among

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\ ~lloe An_ge\es G\me.e American Indians Found Three Times More Likely to Die Young f By LEE MAY, Times Staff Writer WASHINGTON-American In dians are three times more likely to die young than are other Amcri cans, a new congressional report 1said Wednesday in finding that Indian health status "still lags behind" the rest of the population. 0 The 377-page report by Congress' Office of Technology Assess ment said that 37% of deaths ~mong American Indians and Alaska natives occurred before age 45, compared to 12% of all U.S. deaths 'ln the same age group; I h '. (. Listing causes of death among / Indians, the report said that heart disease ranked No. 1, followed by accidents. Indians suffered three times as many accidental deaths as did the rest of the population, the report said. Also, it said, suicides-the ninth leading cause of Indian deaths-were three times greater among Indians aged 15 to 24 than in the rest of the population in that age group. In all 15 causes of death studied in the report, including pneumonia, liver disease and tuberculosis, Indi ans died at a higher rate than did other U.S. residents. The report, which covers the period from 1980 to 1982, said that the overall death rate for Indians was 1.4 times that of the general population. Despite the relatively high death rate, Indians were hospitalized less often than other Americans for. several leading causes of death, the report said. This, it added, implies that "access to health care for Indians has decreased." Rep. Henry A. Waxman (D-Los Angeles), in a statement accompa nying the report, said the study "describes a system that is failing a people to whom the federal gov ernment has a moral and legal trust responsibility." Waxman, chairman of the House Energy and Commerce subcom mittee on health and the environ ment, which requested the study, said the report will help Congress and the Reagan Administration "improve this sorry state of af fairs." According to the 1980 census, more than half of the nation's 1.4 million Indians lived in urban ar-'1 lRB'S MAY HOME SHOW AND SAL ------

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OHLAtmo, l'L SENTINEL 0. ?72,741 SUN. 276,865 MAY 198h Bv~n.1.rs SEAffiE,WA TIMES.POST INTELLIGENCER SUNDAY 464,995 MAY 4 1?~6 J!~ I I More lndiiiq~ dying young, study finds 1 WASHINGTON (UPI) More tluln one-thlrel or assumed reilJ>Onsibility for their health programs American Indians monitored died before they hll'ffl!d they are unhealthier than the rest of the U.S. -15, compared to 12 percent of the rest or the U.S. population. populatlon, a new report shows. ..l Heart disease, the leading cause of death among A study by Congnl!IS's Qlfa...o! nchnolf1JIY all U.S. races, claimed the most Indian lives, but at a Assessment examined health conditions In II ot 1lie sllahtly lower rate. Accidents were the second biggest 1lltlliil'sff Indian Health Service areas Imm 1980 to killer, more than three limes greater than among all 1982. U.S. races. During the three-year study, 11 percent of the Liver disease and circulato9: diseases affect Ina Indian deaths occurred among people younger than thebrain were the fourthand ftflhl1lllked killers of 45, compared to 12 pen:ent of other Americans. Indians. Nearly 75 percent of the Indian Health Service Alcohol Is Implicated in various Indian Dlnesses hospital patients were under 45, compared to 411 and deaths, Including accidents, suicide, homicide, percent of patients admitted to non-federal hospitals. diabetes, Infant malformations, pneumonia, heart A 1980 census counted 1.4 million people who disease and cancer, and in 50 percent or adult crime identified themselves as Indians, and 278 reservations on the re.oiervation, the study showed. and 209 native Alaskan villages. Among Indians. the Mil deaths from liver disease Although American Indians. Including native linked to drinking were 4.2 times more than among all / Alaskans, are healthier than in 1955. :-when the !HS races. .,~ ~--U.S. basically chooses to look other way from Indian problems ~
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Press U.S. To Join Berne C' right Convention, 100 Yrs. Old In '86 ~' .,,. .,, ? ti' Washington The Berne Copy right Convention celebrates its 100th anniversary this fall, and growing numbers of people agree that the world's largest exporter of intellectual works, the U.S., should honor the occasion by signing on as a member. The Senate subcommit tee on patents and trademarks heard arguments on the question last week during a day of hearings. Adhering to the international convention involves more than just signing a treaty, since some modifi cations will have to be made in U.S. copyright law to make it compatible with Berne. Support for these changes from segments of the enter tainment industry have waxed and waned over the years. but the world wide piracy problem has prompted many converts. Adherence would remove the in ternational embarrassment caused by the U.S.' refusal to join a high standard international convention as it urges higher-standards protec tion, advocates contend. In another copyright develop ment last week, the O.(f!!;~.J.ech no1QCMl~SJ1lent released a voluminous report on how to protect in tellectual property rights in the age of high technology. The report will be grist for upcoming debate in (Continued on page 266) lj ~; ',, __ ;, I,._;, Press U.S. To Join Copyright Act --------1Cuntinuedirompage~i ---------' Congress on the myriad problems raised in the area 0f dem auve facing the copyright system. works of a copyrighted work such The motion picture and record-as abridgments and condensations. ings industries are among the segHollywood's latest technique of ments most vigorously urging the "colorizing" black and white films Senate to ratify the Berne treaty. We also could be complicated by this should "seize this opportunity to provision. demonstrate to our trading partAmerican broadcasters are anxners" what we mean when we seek ious to Sign the treaty to keep counadequate and effective protection tries such as Canada from usin2 1, for American works in their counsignals without permission. Ca.na tries, argued Norman Alternan, da's current law protects copynght veepee of the Motion Picture Assn. owners from unlicensed broadcastof America. ing, but it permits cable systems The MPAA, which opposed the without a copyright license to idea on earlier occasions, is lobbyretransmit works contained in ing hard for adherence to Berne and broadcast signals, both Canadian legislation required to achieve it. and American, without any liability. Chief obstacle to such adherence Canada is revising its copyright is the manufacturing clause of the law, but it is uncertain whether any copyright law. A protectionist new law will address the situation. measure urged by the U.S. printing Is Congress in a hurry to become industry, the provision denies copa Berne signatory? !t doesn't appear yright protection here for nondraso. Senate Copyright Subcommittee matic literary material written by Chairman Charles Mathias (R-Md.) American authors unless made in is the chief advocate, and he is retir the U.S. or Canada. It also proing this year. "His departure will hi bits their importation for public cause a problem, warns one advo distribution. "In the eyes of the world (the ~f:!_who sees no replacement in manufacturing clause) has no def enNumerous issues remain to be sible place in the copyright law of an decided, such as whether the enlightened nation," argued CBS Senate's treaty with Berne or the attorney Harry Olsson before last 1976 Copyright Act is the controlweek's Senate hearing. He said the ling document in copyrtght dis provision is an obstacle to our inter putes. national property objectives, and to the free flow of information which the U.S. has long supported. The clause is slated to expire on its own by the end of June, and a heavy lobbying campaign is being waged over its retention. The print ing industry and its unions argue that thousands of jobs will be lost if it is allowed to lapse. Sen. Strom Thurmond (R-S.C.) is reportedly sympathetic !'J their plight. Jukebox Questioa Another provision that may need to be changed is the jukebox com pulsory license, according to ex perts. They say language in the 1976 act probably will have to be changed concerning the use of works with foreign origin. The jukebox indus try is anxious to explore the issue further, particularly the possibility that individual licenses might have to he i;igned 1A. ith foreign an hh In another area of ~ontro\....-rsy, U.S ...:op~right law does not r1.\.:og~ ni1c the issue of "moral r1~hh" of a .... -npyright holder as do '-.!at ull.'.''.'! in many other countr1l.!s. rh1.: 1'-,uL' i'.'!

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PUBLISHERS UEEKL'/ NEU '/ORK, HY ~EEKLY 40200 MAY/02/l9B6 News of the Week Congress Report Suggests Rewrite Of Co~lright Act 0,9 A govern t report on the stalUS of copyright and intel lectual property suggests that the vast technological developments of recent years may require "substantial changes" in the intellectual property system, including a rewrite of the Copyright Act. The Office of Technology Assessment. an arm ol Con gress, made its a)nclusions in a report, "Intellectual Pro__perty Rights in an Age of Electronics and Information," but offered no solutions. The report said the lines between publisher and author and other communications means are becoming blumd to the point that the Copy right Act fails to resolve own ership issues. Congress is beset by private interests on all sides of the issue, including authors and publishers concerned about duplication of their work without proper remu neration. The OT A said, "These competing interests give rise to policy questions that resist quiclc, simple answers. Part of the problem is that new technologies are bringing new patties into the intellectual property debate, many of whom hold values and attitudes that differ from those of more traditional players-authors, printers and publishers, for example." Even among traditional players, it said, the relationships are changing. "Working on an electronic nerwork, for example, the author of a book can now edit, print, publish and distribute his work: tasks that were traditionally within the purview of the publisher. Under these circumstances, the author may be less inclined to assign his rights to the publisher." Among the problems the OTA report raised are identi fying authorship, identifying infringements and enforcing rights, the question of private use and derivative use, functional works, intangible works, integrity, internation al problems and educational goals. In one of the few conclusions made in the report, the OTA said, "copyright, de signed as a policy tool to enhance learning, fails to meet its goal" when one considers that the increasing market value of intellectual properties is placing them beyond the reach of educational institutions. Rep. Robert Kastenmeier (D., Wis.), chairman of the House Copyright Subcommittee, said, "The Copyright Revision Act of 197 6 has ba sically worked well. But in 10 short years, this a)Untry has experienced a literal explosion of knowledge." The report provides the body of knowledge Congress will need when considering changes, he said. -HF.

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SCIENCE HAGAZIHE IIASHINGTOH, OC WEEKLV 156500 MAV/02/1986 Copyrights Obsolete in An Electronic Age, OTA Finds ., ( The patent and copyright laws must be overhauled to take account of complex new 'dcci:ronics and communications gadgetry, according to a recent report by the Offi~ .<>f Technology Assessment. The--m:tdy;-"tnrettectual Property Rights in an Age of Electronics and Information," made no splash at its release on Capitol Hill on 16 April. The problem, not a new one for OT A, is that its recommendations are vague, as a congressional staffer complained. However, the report does suggest that Con gress might want to create an entirely new regulatory agency-something a.kin to the patent office and patent court combined-to handle intellectual property disputcS. On the other hand, Congress may not want to touch the idea. The study was commissioned by the sub committees in charge of patent and trade mark laws, headed by Senator Charles Ma thias (R-MD) and Representative Robert Kastcnmcicr (D-WI). They hoped to get a forecast of the kind of changes that might be needed to keep the laws up to date with the revolution in electronics. Without question, the information busi ness is booming. As the report says,"lndivi duals are consuming, on the average, 1.2% more words each year." According to the 572 OTA, the data-shuffling sector of the economy accounts for 41 % of the U.S. labor force and 34% of the gross national product. The numbers are growing. The increased traffic in information means that "it will be treated more and more like a commodity, to be bought and sold in the marketplace." This will lead to new and complex battles over access to data, claims of authorship, and the integrity of products such as computer spawned films and music. As these economic stresses mount, OTA says, the courts may be overwhehned. Root ed in the traditions of the printing press, the old patent and copyright system may not be versatile enough to deal with the dilemmas posed by electronic machinery. Some of the problems OTA foresees arc: It may be hard to establish who an author is, or what percentage of the product he or she may rightly claim, when many people contribute simultaneously to a data base or other computerized product. Many things, from newspaper articles to airplane designs, arc created by joint dforts focused in a single computer's brain. Existing laws may not be useful in sorting out conflicts that arise between man and machine. For example, if a computer music-writing program is modified by a musician and produces a popular song, is the computer (or its programmer) entitled to royalties? Present. law is unclear on how to treat "interactive" programs, in which the computer and its user together create an original work. The case and speed with which digital information can be copied poses new prob lems. It will be possible with laser disks and new optical technology to obtain the equiv alent of 100 novels almost instantaneously from a site 100 miles away. The 100 novels may then be copied and stored in a matter of seconds. The temptation for piracy will be great. The impulse to limit access will also be great. OTA suggests that existing laws arc not sophisticated in this area. They may not be adequate to balance the need for public access to information against an ex pected clamor for new author's rights. Despite the passage of a new software copyright law in 1980, the courts have given widely varying interpretations of what is and is not protected. The reason, OTA says, is that "copyright law cannot be successfully applied to computer programs." In general, the courts have tended to err on the side of the authors, according to the OT A, giving more protection to software than may be desirable. This could discourage legitimate fonns of reverse engineering. It could lead also to the duplication of effort and the enforced use of inefficient programs. Digitized pictures and sound tracks will create special problems. For example, movie producers may be able to stock useful old scenes, perhaps even images of actors, for use in synthetic filmmaking. Lucasfilm of San Rafael, California, now sells an optical disk device called EditDroid that automates virtually the entire process of film editing. With computers, it will be possible to resur rea dead movie stars and cast them in new roles. ( California has already passed a law requiring that the heirs' permission be ob tained.) Sorting out royalty claims in the future may be very difficult. In many if not all of these cases, the marketplace will develop a way aroW1d the dilemma. However, there is some risk. OT A warns, that private solutions may neglea the constitutional goal of providing as much public access to information as can be fairly given. For example, some companies have devised interlocking systems that require the use of specific hardware to play their tapes or to run their computer programs. Such built-in controls will not be popular and will never be effective, OTA says, unless they arc made mandatory by law. Yet it will not serve the public well to have such a law. The report concludes by offering several policy alternatives. One would be to create a new federal agency to handle intellectual property claims. Another is to do nothing, meaning, OTA says, to rely on the courts to sort out most of the problems. But OTA observes that the courts arc not well equipped to deal with the complexities of the fast-moving electronics business. Con gress may simply wish to strengthen the existing enforcement system and encourage software writers to join royalty-collecting societies, as singers and actors have done in the past. The OTA's analysis aims to provide a comprehensive solution to some problems that are still rather ill defined. But, accord ing to Stanford University law professor Paul Goldstein, chairman ofOTA's advisory panel for this report, it may be more sensible to move slowly. The best approach may be to cope with each technological case as it comes along, adhering to past principles. In his view, Congress should tty to fit each new technology into the existing legal frame work. but, where this would create a clear distortion, it should simply enact a new law. This is what Congress did in 1984 with the creation of the novel Semiconductor Chip Protection Aa, which protects the "archi tecture" of electronic circuits. This approach has proved more effective, in Goldstein's view, than the decision in 1980 to amend old copyright laws to accommodate the needs of software writers. ELIOT MAllsHALL SCIENCE, VOL. 232

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.~?R 2Q t335 M<':,(' 05., 1.386 ~{!,~lfF~U'$ TecS:ogy said outpacing patent laws Hill Study Urges Changes In Present Copyright Law ,_ia..,.,_ ';_-;.'n cern is tile infringement oi t:.S. copyrights overseas. Todav"s world market values us less for what we make or what we I grow. and more for what ~e commu n;cate nd wilat we IUlow. he said. .;, I! I By DAN TAIGOIOFF ,.1J ttl..tngt' :s )CC!J.rrrni:! ::-) r:1p1,:i:, that l"rml!!ress T.U:St JC't .:-J>>ner than ia!~r 1f it w..int:; ii 1~llberately channel :t.;. unp<.u:t \\'ASHl;';GTON-A Congressional study released last week c,mciuded ,hat current copyright law may be inadequate for to day's 1ntetlectuai property-rights problems and that Congress may ha\"e to pick up the slack. The 1nte1Iectuai-property sys tem may no longer serve social. econotmc and political goals with the same ease in an information age: said Congress's Offtfe n} Teehl}CJJ~gy~s~~~ in I s re port. "1nte!Tectual Property Rights in an Age of Electronics and [nformation, given the enhanced value of information in all realms of life. Congress, OT A said, will have to decide not only when to act, but 1,1.rhether to act. Sume problems, OTA said. "are particularly pre,mng because stakeholders are seekmg immediate legislative action, societal stakes are particularly high. or technologi-.\mong the aec1:-1ons n"" n. port .said. will he ,,hethtr !11 trt~1t problem~ ;eparately t1r ..:omprehens1\el:, Fund.arnt>ntal ,.:ham!es in tl'chnoJog)' .are ,JCcurrrn~ !'!at w11l antiquate man~ .,r -.da)i ,o\u. t1om: and br:!1'),'. r?.t.''-\ :.:.mtis ,H pr,,b[ems requmn~ new ~inri:; ,,r -JiiJ tions. Thus. t!'ven 1t L",)r..~ress decides to act now in .,ome Jrea::i. it will need to bt!' prepared ~,, re consider thtse ..1cwms ,nlhm the next decade C:ongres~ dtd act dramat1c~il} in late l':J3-I tu protect mtcroc-ntp design, creating a new --~ui ?eneris form of protection-ne1t'n-er copyright nor pa1ent But prob!ems persist. 11TA found. for other hardware 1nd ioftware products domestically nd internatmnally ( Sena~ Cotiii;ght Subcommittee hopes to have first ~t of legislation ready In month to clear way for U.S. to sign international Berne Convention copyright agreement, soW'Ce said. Panel foresees arduous joumey to enactment, is by no means optimistic For success this year, we're told. But lawmakers a.re in agreement that U.S. copyright reform is needed to bring new technologies under law and to reduce intellectual property piracy abroad --objectives that will spei!d drafting, source sa.id. Beme Convention is 100-year-old accord signed by 78 other co11Dtries granting reciprocal copyright protection. U.S. has signed companion Universal Copyright Convention, has held off joining Berne Convention because of differences in opinion over treatment of pirated works and so-called "moral rights" declaration, among other issues. Subcommittee was urged to act in recent hearings at which representatives of ASCAP, BMI, ~!PAA, networks and others largely agreed that signing Convention was in hest interests of U.S. CBS Gen. Cow1Sel Harry Olsson argued U.S. participation in accord would send signal to Canada that Americans respect higher level of copyright protection for foreign and domestic works, which might encourage Canada to implement safeguards against wtauthorized retransmission of U.S. TV signals. Canadian cabler Cancom is retransmitting American network and public TV signals without compensation, hasn't been blocked by Canadian govt. despite Ottawa's adherence to Beme Convention. "[U.S.) adhel'ence would remove the intemational embarrassment of the United States, the world's largest exporter ol' intellectual works, urging highel' standards protections while it is not a member of the higher standards intemational convention," Olsson said. '.'fCT A Vp Edward Merlis took more cautious stance, said Assn. couldn't advocate U.S. participation because it's llDClear whethel' Convention would permit continued retransmission of Canadian and Meld.can TV signals now allowed 11Dder U.S. cable compulsory license law. U.S. Copyright Office has prepared draft legislation fot' Subcommittee and, with State Dept. 's ad hoc govt.-industry committee on issue, ~ommended that U.S. join Convention. Push on Convention coincides with just-released report (OTA-CIT-303) by Office of Technology Assessment (OTA> ~ommending that Congress put off major revisions to U.S. intellectuiil properlylaws wim'Tull impact of technological changes can be assessed. Congress is under pressure to adjust policy to ensure design safeguards for computet' software and to curb re-use of electronically packaged information, among other changes. OTA said issues a.re exceedingly complex, must be evaluated in context of commwtications, trade, privacy, antitrust, education, R&D and ta.'< \ policies. -"

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PLAINVIEW, TX HERALD o. 9.665 s. 10,150 JUN 11 1986 BUlf/r.~ .~ Serious nefilect LD2"97V Some disforoing revelations some 60 percent haver no con-about the federal government's tingency plans to protect data if vast and complex computer and ~ainframe computers are data processing network will be disrupted. found in a study just completed Any number of disruptions are by the Off.ic.e_Qf Technology possible as a result of employee Assessment (OTA). abuse of the machines, theft or The OT A, a non-partisan accidental destruction. A major research branch of Congress, breakdown of the computer raises serious questions on how system in a single office could efficiently the government -the have disastrous consequences world's largest single user of for the entire system. computer equipment -is E-xpenditures on computer operating these facilities and security in 13 cabinet-level how well it is safeguarding the departments and 20 independent confidentiality of the records agencies currently run to about contained in the system. $33 million a year -up from $7 The study discloses, for million in 1980. Evidently this is example, that a quarter of the not enough to do a proper job. To agencies using the system do not any additional funding for this screen employees who have purpose that may be required access to computers; about 40 must be added a heightened percent have not conducted diligence and alertness on the security risk analyses as part of supervisors to preserve required by the Office of the irreplaceable information Management and Budget, and stored in these machines ....

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FEDERAL TIMES WASHINGTON, DC 'lll'.l':l
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SECURITY WORLD CHICAGO, ILL. MONTHLY 36,600 i\PR 198fi !l!!f!,,fJEJ.i.E'S SECURIT)' TODAY' IN \\{\SHI~GTON Congressional research into computer crime may prod further federal data crime legislation. By David R. Heinly Washington Bureau Chief The Office of Jechoo~.-~.m:ss~~nc (OTA).. a research arm of Congress, has JOtned the chorus of interested parties calling for enactment of stiffer federal laws against computer crime. Whether OTA's position will persuade lawmakers to act on anv of the several bills currently pending in the field of computer crime remains to be seen. But in concluding that state laws alone, given their considerable variation, are not wholly adequate in dealing with computer crime or even in defining such crime, OTA's recommendations are bound to help. In a recent report to Congress covering a broad range of federal information management issues, OTA stressed the increased vulnerabi.litv of organizations including, of course, the federal government using computer systems. Risks and potential losses related to information svstems, savs OT:\, have risen draniaticallv wi'th the advent of increased comput er networking, microcomputers, in creased computer literacv and the increased reliance on computerized information systems in general. In case the point has been lose on members of Congress. the OT:\ re port summarizes a number of survevs, studies and analyses by groups both inside and outside of government seeking co assess the nature, scope and extent of computer crime. These. OTA suggests, tend to affirm a cou pie of faces. First, char ch ere is a paucity of reliable information on the amount of computer crime caking place and second, chat such evidence as is available suggests the problem is serious, that losses are significant and that current securicv mechanisms have fallen short of curbing such crimes. Defining the Problem One of the key impediments in drafting new criminal legislation 1s defining computer crime. OTA, for purposes of its analysis, defines computer crime "simply as a sec of crimes in which computerized data or soft ware play a major role." Cited as examples are embezzlement, vandal ism, fraud, theft ( of software and/or data?) and "petty theft" including joyriding by so-called hackers. Bue in drafting computer securitv laws and setting penalties (the most important element in cerms of deterrence), distinctions have co made, for example, between "insider" crimes ( embezzlement, fraud, etc.,) and "outsider'' crimes (joyriding, vandal ism, etc.). There remains. too, the issue of federal jurisdiction. The Justice Department under che currenc Administration is especially cautious about expanding che role of the federal government in any field. let al_one criminal justice and computer cnme. :\'evercheless. the .\dminiscracion recognizes the problem and has submitted legislation of its own which would limit federal intervention co crimes in which at lease cwo computers are involved and are located in different states. OTA agrees some limit is justified on federal involvement but suggests perhaps che .\dministracion's bill is coo limiting, pointing our chat "com puterized information may cross scare lines in transmission even if the per petrator is in the same state as the hose/victim computer." \'ircuallv all of the major computer crime bills currently pending would, one wav or another. expand the cover age of the Counterfeit .\ccess Device and Computer Fraud and .\buse .\cc of 1984, co restore language dropped from the original bill two years ago and would cover computer crimes "affecting inters rate commerce." Hearings han: been held by boch House and Senate Judiciary Committees buc. so far. no further action has been taken.

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THE WASHING TON POST WASHINGTON, DC D. 728,857 SUN. 1,033.210 MA V House Panel Votes to Modernize Curbs on Electronic Eavesdropping Computerized 'lfansactions, Cellular Phone Conversations Covered t,~1~ By Mary Thornton Waallington Poat SlaU \\'riler After more than two years of study, a House subcommittee yester day unanimously approved a bill that would make it illegal to eaves drop on electronic communications, including cellular telephone conver sations, electronic fund transfers, and computer messages and data transmissions. The bill would also extend to such communications Fourth Amendment protection against unreasonable search and seizure. The "Electronic Communications Privacy Act of 1986" was approved by a unanimous voice vote of the House Judiciary subcommittee on civil liberties after it received the strong backing of the Justice Department, the American Civil Liberties Union and the computer and communications industries. Jerry Berman of the ACLU called the vote "a significant victory for citizen privacy. It demonstrates that new coalitions can be formed to enhance privacy rights." The legislation is designed to fill the void created as technology raced ahead of the laws: prohibiting improper wiretapping of telephone calls or searches of mail. A report by the congressional ~~-Ocf~J~~J~~t~::; innovations in electronic surveillance technology" available to law signal to. base stations connecting enforcement agencies "have outthem to telephone systems in cities stripped constitutional and statuwhere the service is available. tory protections, leaving areas in The bill, introduced by subcom which there is currently no legal mittee Chairman Robert W. Kasprotection against new surveil. tenmeier (D-Wis.) in the House and lance devices." PatrickJ. Leahy (D-Vt.) in the Sen The report included a survey of ate, does not deal with the more federal agencies, including six that difficult issue of "cordless" tele said they planned to intercept or phones, which use a lower-frequen monitor electronic mail as part of cy radio signal their investigative work. Since those conversations are At stake in one area is the privaoften picked up unintentionally on cy of about 250 million electronic FM radio receivers, it was decided messages in the United States each that cordless telephone users year. Industry sources estimate should assume that_ their conversa that 5 million Americans use elections may be overheard. tronic mail. either through commerThe bill contains several provi cial networks operated by compasions to make it easier for federal nies like MCI and GTE Telenet or law enforcement agencies to obtain through corporate networks linked court-approved wiretaps. It would by computer terminals and teleexpand the categories of crimes for phone lines. which a wiretap may be approved, The bill would require a court-apas well as the number of of{icials in proved search warrant for law enthe Justice Department who can forcement agencies to obtain a comapprove such a request to the court. puter message within six months of It would also allow for court ap its generation and a subpoena after proval of a new type of wiretap that. Most companies eliminate when a suspect uses pay tele their messages from the system phones. In such a case, the agent after three months. could obtain approval to follow the Another major concern is the suspect, then call the telephone new cellular telephone technology. company and have a wiretap acti Under the legislation, law enforcevated for that conversation. ment agencies would have to meet The.bill would also make it a mis the strict standards of the federal demeanor to use a satellite dish to wiretap statute to eavesdrop on intercept subscription television cellular telephone conversations, signals, but only if the information transmitted by high-frequency radio is then used commercially.

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'THt W A5lttNGiON POST House Votes to Revise Wiretap Law to Restrict Electronic Surveillance By Mazy Thornton Wa:-.t,,111cton Pmt SUff Writ ThCJ'-.i'adio q-i, nals to base statiooa c:oimeded;,tl)lr/ telephone systel!lll in the>tcitles where the service is availallie.d ~: ,, ... The legislation requires law eo-'i forcement authorities ~-la. strict standards of the tap statute and obtain a eoan to eavesdrop on cellular ,, conversations. 'o'L.,,_-. ii It does not deal with "comliesa"~ telephones, which U!le a ~J quency radio signal. Since,c:omer-.: sations on those phone, ,:att: oft.en_j; intercepted unintentionally .<-' radio receivers, it was dec::lded that!! users of cordless phooes 'llxli!ld-llif<'t sume their C011versatioaa' maf'. 6if:. overheard. .. e:;~ The bill picked up major from the federal law em~ community with promioos' malting' it easier to obtain court-~ wiretaps. It expands the al:ep'fof crimes for which a wi:riitap' aiaJ, be approved, as well aa the IIUlllbet" ~Justice Department offld:als'' 1'tio can apprdve a wiretq>. -~ the court '. .!t: '1l Earlier. th.i4,,~,:, .;~;; ._ Department l!Otilied. JO-: diciary Committee of its strong aup-, port for the b11L ... -~:r ." Jerry Berman of the~Civil Liberties Union also praised,, the bill, callling it "importint'~ cy legislation." ::r-:!'li:.-.--1 "" We purch~e:: jewelry.

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Barns Heading for High-Tech By Joel McNair AHociate Editor Predicting the future is as much an art as it is a science, but the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment (OT A) has come up with some predictions for the dairy industry as it will be in the year 2000. Those predictions say dairying will become less of an art and more of a science. Here is a sampling of the OT A's predictions for the year 2000: Yearly milk production will average 24,700 pounds per cow, nearly double the current level. Per-cow production will increase at an average rate of 3.9 percent per yearup from the 2.6 percent rate of growth for the 20 years prior to 1982. Biotechnology will play a giant part in the "super cow" of the year 2000. Biotechnology includes things that most dairy farmers already see coming, such as the bovine growth hormone (BG HJ. But the OT A sees other biological wizardry emerging from the laboratory to make its way into the milking parlor. Scientists already are well along in efforts .to mass-pro duce growth and production inducing hormones, enzymes.. am_ino acids and feed supplements. These "bio. ____ logical pt"oducts" can also be used for detecting, pre. venting and treating infectious and genetic diseases, the OTA says. Gene insertion, "a new technique arising from the convergence of gene and embryo manipulations," will allow genes for new traits such as greater milk production to be inserted in the reproductive cells of cows, the OTA says. "Unlike the genetically engineered hormones (such as HGH), which cannot affect future generations, gene insertion will allow future animals to be endowed per manently with the traits of other animals," the report explains. Embryo transfer, already used in the livestock industry, will be an even bigger factor in 14 years. Gene transfers will be made in the embryo stage. Information technology, a broad area that includes computers and loads of electronic gadgetry, also will play a part in production increases. .. .Integration of computers and electronics into modern livestock production systems will help make the farmer a bette!. DJtnager;'. the OT A predicts. Electronic animal identification will aid in record keeping, individualized feed control, genetic improve ment and disease control. "Soon, all farm animals will be 'tagged' shortly after birth by an electronic device called a transponder, that lasts the life of the animal," the report reads. "For example, some dairy cows now wear a transponder in the ear or on a neck chain. A feed dis pensing device identifies the animal by the transponder's signal and provides an appropriate amount of feed for the animal." Inexpensive estrus detection devices will allow cows to be rebred faster after weaning, culled more quickly from the herd and make for easier embryo transplants Electronic herd record keeping systems will enable veterinarians and herd managers to more quickly control and correct health problems. They will be linked to the identification systems already mentioned, and will record such information as production records, feed consump tion, vaccination proCiles, breeding records, conception dates, types and dates of diseases, number of offspring and medicine costs.

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MARYSVILLE, CA APPEAL-DEMOCRAT 0. 21,025 APR l O 1986 BUME~U"'S The farm crisis Morn~ than a m?tter of economics OF ALL THAT k -----------' bedded in particular communities. They recall, for been said and written example, that President Reagan in his 1984 election about the farm crisis, by campaign used advertisements with a pastoral perhaps the most Anthony theme. "Reagan Country" was supposed to be clas-alarming report is Harrigan sic rural America with its belief in hard work, moral that of the Congressjovirtue and respect for national values. nal Qffice of Technology Assessment which =-=== asserted in late March that half of the nation's 2.2 million farmers will be gone by 2000 and 50,000 large farms will produce 75 percent of America's food. That's a prediction of considerable depopulation in the farming regions of America. The loss of that many farmers would destroy the economic viability of hundreds of small towns and cities dependent upon a farm economy. Indeed entire states would be sha ken by such a profound change in the nature of farm ing. At the same time, the prediction suggests a concentration of farming such as has never existed in the United States. It also suggests a massive elimina tion of independent businesses which today constitute the farm economy. lT-'S HARD TO argue with the Office of Technology "Assessment as regards the shakeout taking place in the farm states. One can't travel through these states without reading of foreclosures, auctions of farm equipment, the abandonment of farming by longtime farmers, and the failure of banks and other farm-re lated businesses in towns and cities which tradition ally have served farming areas. Some Americans aren't particularly troubled by the farm crisis. They point out that small businesses of many varieties su.tl'er a high rate of failure. Other Americans, while unsure as to what can be done about the situation, are disturbed by the sudden transformation of American agriculture and the ru ral way of life. They argue that farming isn't exactly like other businesses as it involves certain values em-THE TRUTH IS that rural life and rural themes have an attraction for millions of Americans who live in urban environments. They equate rural life with conservative views of life. America's love affair with the rural world is ex plored in sensitive fashion by William Adams, writ ing in the current issue of The Georgia Review.He rightly points out that rural institutions are ''rich with meaning in our collective life and history.'' Thus a change in America agriculture is much more than an economic change; it's a change in America's cultural values. One wonders whether traditional America conservatism will survive if hundreds, perhaps thousands, of small towns are turned into ghost towns between now and the year 2000, as the Office of Technologoy Assessment suggests. MR. ADAMS ALSO properly raises the question of "the ends of public policy." Americans always have viewed economic changes in terms of larger national goals and purposes, beliefs and ideals. And Congress, as the voice of the people, undoubt edly will ponder whether it wants to let depopula tion and concentration take place, willy-nilly, without public policy direction. Certainly, the rep resentatives of the farm states from North Car olina to Oregon will have their say. What's involved in the prediction made by the Office of Technology Assessment is nothing less than the fabric of American life. \

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----:,t~A f~fl. JEMOCRAT i ,, i,t uq ?f1 I 'l ~,; ~lf_D'C$ r Endangered Farms .' ,,,,-\l .,~ ,.. .... \ The timing of the announcement, as AJ Week began, was rather startling. Half of all of the farms in the United States could be gone by theyear2000, it said. It's an old story, really. The small, neighborhood groceries are gone. So, too, are most of the corner "sweet shops." Nearly all movie houses in small towns have long since passed into history, foJiowed by other "mom and pop" stores of all types. One of the next to go, itseems, will be what most of us commonly refer to as "the small, family farm." The omce ot Technology ~asessment, Wich advises -ongress on technical issues, Monday issued a report which said the U.S. is Hkely to lose half of all its farms by the year 2000, unless government policy is changed to I\ ......... -! '. target moaerate-size' farms that are most endangered. The modest sized farms will be hardest hit when nearly 1 million out of 2.2 million farms disappear, the report contended. Pursuing separate policies for large, moderate and small farms was recommended. "Without substantial changes in teh nature and objectives of farm policy, the three classes of farms will soon become two the moderate-sized farm will largely be eliminated as a viable force in American agriculture, the report said. In fact, it noted, about one-third of moderate-sized farms are in deep trouble now because of heavy farm debt and negative cash now. The number of small and part time farms, most of which are run by people with other income, will continue to decline and their problems "will continue to fester as an unaddressed social concern," the report noted. Still, they're expected to make up some 80 percent of farms in the U.S. by the turn of the century. The report also pointed out that while large-scale farmers need to be "on tile cutting edge of research," they do not need direct government payments to survive. The problem, however, is an old one; something about the squeaky wheel getting the grease. It's the large farms which have the funds and the power and the prestige to effectively lobby Congress and the administration, while mom and pop continue to struggle with their few acres in Bluecreek Township, hoping to wring out enough dollars to continue their operation for another year. Perhaps the most ominous message was contained in the portion of the report which said: ... technology revolution in agricultural production has the potential for creating a larger, safer, less expensive, more stable and more nutritious food supply. Yet it will exact substantial costs in potential adjustment proble1111 in the agricultural sector and rural communities." I -BOBSHRALV~

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, .. ----ii:lp? lJts llnint.a itrgtstrr DES MOINES. IOWA D. 234.927 SUN. 384,925 APR 7 1986 .lu~ Public had better become aware of new agricultural technologies (01..qr< By LAUREN SOTH ... i'he relentless march ot illdustrlalizatioa goes on ill ru,, ral America. Agri cultural production each year becomes more like factory production. Raw materials are fed illto the lalld. manipulated by compqt er-c:ootroUed maclliDes; livestock are raised in hospital-like, confined quarters or lo muaive, open-air feedlota i.a the wann, dry regionl, with oe.vautomatic feed IIIWDg, distribution aod medlcaUon; the end prodlicta are barvested and delivered mecbanically to faod factories or apart pteways. Kew tec:llniq-of blotec:IIDoloff promiM to speed ap Ille ellmlllaUoll of labor from farmlDI by modifyiq p1Uta ... animala to iDcrule prodllC1i91ty. 8-Uc~ vastly i-tlle allillty of lcieatins to ''mallllfact1lre orplUIIDI for controlliq dileue, rllbtin& imecta and ot11er pqrpaMI. c-llmed with tbe new Information tec:llaology of computers and other electronic devices, the adnnciq scilllCIS of agriculture will concentrate farmiD1 more and more into Jarse establiabmeots and factor:,-like systems. Animal& will be Identified for individualized feed control and dlaease conttol bJ means of electronic tap lastiq throqll llfe. Tbe huabaodry of small herds and the "eye of the 1118Sler" controlllD& tbe finillJillC of the cattle -wW be dlsappeari.q. T1111t is the pictan of acricalture's future-ptlfnathe-reptby the QUlro rt Tedlaeklr Allffl1PIPt ''Tecluloloc,, hltllc Polief and tile Laarea S.111 11 a ,_ etltter ef TIie Regllter'1 .............. ----CbaogiqStruc:tare of Americu Asrtcaltore.'' TIie OTA study projects a cootlnued 9llrinltiq of the IIUlllber of fal'IIIII at a rapid rate from U millloa ill 1912 to 1.3 millioll by 2880. TIie sllriokqe will occur mostly amoo, tlle small and middle-sized fanm, accordlo& to OT A. and tlle number of tarse aad very large farms Will i.acnue. STl!Vl!ANSUL :--.. -~. I"'-_, -'\ """"""" -. The DlllDber of far= selling UOO,M worth of prodactl or more a year (at iir-t prices) will iDCN!Ue from 122,000 to 171.000 by the end of tile cmtary. Operators of tbese farms will take iD aboat 98 percent of tbe nau-J net farm illeome. TIie namberof moderate-sized com mercial fal'IIIII (ales from $100.IIOO to $200,000) will decline from about 180,000 to 75,000 in the next 15 yean, acc:ordin1 to OT A. while the number of small and part-time farms will drop from 1.9 millloll to 1.0 million. If OTA's projections come true, the res11lt will be a further dramatic change in rural society. America is already ovenrhelmingly urban. The most 1gr!cvlt11ral of our states. the Western Cora Belt and Great Plains. have less tban a fifth of their employ ment ill farming. TIie venerated independent family-farm system is giving way to a 1111-farm, urbanized rural America. OT A thinks another big move in tbat direction is coming. Of coune, tbe
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} SAN FRANCISCO EXAMINER-CHRONICLE 0, 149,188 51J>I, 'o'l2A~'3 M ~R 2 ), ix~ Bu~R_EJ.i.E'~ /, F~!~~o~!f C Farming PlfsHisG THE boundaltes of science and using the knowledge gleaned thereby to benefit the public weal is a practice of long and distinguished lineage. It is also one that Ameri cans have pro\ed remarkably good at. One thinks of Edison and the Wright brothers-the list could go on and on and the effect that products of their lively minds have had on all our lives. In our modern, nuclear era, with its com puters and space probes, its gene research, its satellite eyes and its gimlet-visioned micro scopes, these boundaries can recede with dra matic speed. The problem is to grasp the import of some complex. abstruse scienti!lc revelation. What really is happening here? How will this discovery affect everyday existence? These thoughts are prompted by the re lease of a two-year study by the Congressional QWce of IerbnoJogj:_ ~t entitled "Technology, Public Policy and the Changing Structure of American Agriculture." It is the first thorough analysis of the consequences of an array of new biological, mechanical and management techniques for agriculture, re search institutions and the rural economy. One looks at the title thinking perhaps of Henry Agard Wallace, the homespun agrarian economist who was FDR's vice president Wallace will not go down in the history booJts as the most astute politician we ever produced. Far from it. No, he is more certain to be remem bered as having developed a higher-yielding strain of hybrid corn. In any case, the report demonstrates that inn 1frandsro (lqronick Richard T. Thieriol, Editor and Pvbli,her Chonff d '( ovng Thieriot, Publisher 19 55-77 Gearg T. Cameron, Publisher 19:25-55 Founded 1865 by Charles and M.H. d Young scientific advance can carry a definite down ~ide. It makes the point that genetic engineer mg and other emerging technologies, often cit ed as cost-cutting tools that will help save small and medium-size farms. could instead raise costs and cut the number of farms ln half. The supercow ()r supergrain, it seems, wur carry a heavy price. "It's a 'good news, bad news' report," Michael J. Phillips, the agricultural economist who directed the study, told the New York Times. "Biotechnology and information tech nologies will help make our agriculture competitive again. Technology is our strong suit, and we should use it. "But many farmers will not benefit. Biotechnology will quicken the rate of farm fail ures unless we restructure the policy to help the medium and small farmers. The wealthiest farms will have no prob lems; indeed, they will achieve significant gains. An average cow wilt bear more calves because dairy farmers can use advanced he reditary techniques to produce superior embryos and then artificially implant them. This supercow will also produce twice as much milk. and similar gains are anticipated in other as pects of agriculture as gene splicers transfer hereditary material from different species into corn, wheat, soybeans, cotton and fruit crops. But the price for smaller farms will be high, The report says they won't be able to affordto put these new technologies into practice. It estimates that more than a million small and medium-sized farms out of a national total of 2.2 million will disappear by the year 2!XJO. Seventy-five percent of our food supply will come from a mere 50,000 farm,. Federal policy should be concentrated on creating a stable economic environment for agriculture and on helpint( moderate-sized farms, the report said. With few exceptions. small farms :ire "not nable entities in the main stream of commercial agriculture. nor can they be made so." THAT IS A BLEAK conclusion, and there are those who argue with it. But clearly such a study is worthwhile. It demonstrates how inter wound everything in our society is: scientific progress, politics, _government funding and the state of our agriculture .. .l.Jld one cannot ignore the fact that benefit for one kind of farmer may spell intolerable burden for another.

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Report may be map of future fQr agriculture I -''b a pretty bitter pill to bave to swallow. I speak of a recent study released to Congress by the U.S. government' Off~e or Technology Asses&ment which 1m1icates that America will lose about a nullion farms-nearly ball of the 2.2 million farms in the country-by 2000. That is an average loss of more than \ 71,000 farmers a year for eacb of the intervening 14 years. The study further indicates that cate gory of farmers likely to be bit the hardest by this erosion of farm numben are the so-called family farmers that have long been regarded as the back bone of agriculture. In many instances, these were the farmers who, at least until the onaet of the recent financial crisls, worked al most exclusively on the farm and re garded it as both their Jivelillood and their way of lite. Often, their families worked with them, or perhaps there were one or two hired bands. But as busy as many of these family farina were, the principals also found time to serve on local government. es tension. church and soil conservaUdll boards. as 4H leaders and the backbolle and leadership of innumerable fa.rm groups. Their lou to agriculture and to their local commWlities will be sorely mis9ec1. So Will the loss of the small b~ men, teacben, service workers and profesaional.1 whose existence dependlr wbolely or partly on these farmers, u well as the cities and towns where they once resided. Who will remain on the land when t!lls transition to fewer farms occurs? Some of the full-time farmers will become part-time farmers; they will subsidize their lamung efforts with off-farm in come because they choose to maintain a rural lifestyle. Tbe 1.2 million remaining farmers will also include some small specialty farms. There will also be some mid sized farm.1 where their operaton, ha" found a special productive "l'liche" where they can survive, The report estimates that as mucb u 75 percent of all U.S. agricultural pro duction by 2000 will be carried on by juat 50.000 farms. Some of those farms may be owned by big corporations. Others will be large family operations. Still others could be large farms operated a partnership with foreign or outside investors, or as unita of a larger enfflT under the control of a larm manag~ ment firm. Some of these large farms will undoubtedly hire displaced smaller farmers to work their land. The study says the transition from an agriculture dominated by mid-siled. farms to one where the large farms will, dominate is a function of several forct11a: Advances in technology have made pro. duction more efficient for big farms than smaller farms. Government poll cies encourage bigb-volume) tow--cott production. Farm program benefits &i" the greatest advantages to the larpr producers at the expense of smaller producers. Whether this report 1s a forecast of what 1s inevitable or not depends in pan on how pe<>ple choose to react to fllE K..\..'15.-\5 un SIAR MNSAS crrY, .\10. lt :t1.s-:;1 :w,~. 3.q16;,.; \k~ I ; X() Bu'?.'fF,1:_~

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----BIO/TECHNOLOGY
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/ \_ .--' SCIENCE AND THE CITIZEN Genes, Not Jeans 1 : ) ~--.: ,: vances in biotechnologyhave brought U.S. agriculture to the brink of its third 20th-century revolution. According to a two-year study by the congressional Office of Technology Assessment (OT A), the tools of molecular biology ~nge the economics of agriculture as pro foundly as they can alter the DNA of crops or livestock. The first major change was the me chanical revolution ( 1920-50); it ma terialized as farmers switched from the power of animal muscle to ma chine power, thereby boosting U.S. agricultural production. The dramatic rise in productivity was accelerated by the second revolution (1950-80), in which farmers were able to exploit chemicals to control pests and disease and to fertilize their crops. The effects of the third revolution, the biotechnol ogy revolution, may be even more pro found, according to the OT A. By means of biotechnology, micro organisms can be converted into man ufacturers of hormones, enzymes and feed supplements that have been too expensive or too difficult to produce in large quantities. For example, genetic instructions for the synthesis of a hor mone that can increase milk produc tion in cows. by as much as 30 percent can be inserted into the DNA of the bacterium Escherichia coli. The bacteria then produce economically significant quantities of the hormone. Another possibility is the insertion of genes for new traits into the repro ductive cells of livestock and poultry. The descendants of the modified par ents might display such traits as accel erated growth, improved muscle mass or immunity to a particular disease. Biotechnology can modify crops so that they make more nutritious pro teins, resist insects and disease, grow in harsh environments or produce their own nitrogen.fertilizer. Another tech nique, clo'nin& pnerates intact plants from single ceHs, yielding genetically identical individuals that can be supe rior in various ways to those grown from seed. It is also possible to transfer genes controlling desirable traits from one species to another. All these changes, the OT A notes, can be expected to improve the com petitiveness of U.S. agriculture in world markets. On the other hand. they may alter radically the structure of the domestic agricultural sector. The number of moderate-size farms, the report explains, might be sharp-66 ly reduced. The high yields expect:.... ed from the new technology, together with the economic advantages of large farms, will create "substantial incen tives for farms to grow in size," placing owners of moderate-size farms under pressure to sell. (A farm of moderate size is currently defined as selling from $100,000 to $199,000 per year in farm products.) The result could be that by the year 2000 the agricultural system will consist of 50,000 farms that are large (sales of $200,000 to $499,000) or very large (sales of $500,000 or more). Together such farms would ac count for 75 percent of all agricultural output; 1.2 million small or part-time farms would produce the balance. In 1982 there were 2.2 million farms, of which 86.5 percent were small or part time, 8.1 percent of moderate size and 5 .4 percent large or very large. Large and very large farms, the re port speculates, should be able to make the transition to biotechnologi cal methods without the aid of any Government farm-support programs. Farms of moderate size will need help. Income supports in particular, the study found, provide significant bene fits to farms of moderate size, which otherwise have trouble keeping afloat in the face of the trend to bigger farms; Congress should therefore con sider excluding large farms from support programs. SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN HEM VORK, HV MOMTHLV 649253 HAV/Ol./l.986

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-----~ I I l I I scma NEYS UASHINGTON, DC IIIEEKLV 180000 APR/.l.2/l.SBS tffffllccr Science & Society Bfci~ology to change farm landscape Amidst a peri,116 of change and stress in U.S. agriculture, new forces biotechnology and information technolollYare en tering the field. ~al effect will they have? A study by the con gressional Olli& ol Thchnology Assessment {QJ"~) predicts that in the next l4 years agr1culllltiifproductlvitywill increase significantly. but the structure of agriculture will change dnl matically. Approximately l million farms. most ol small or moderate size, will dlsappea~ OTA says. In the year 2000, only 50,000 large farms will be required tor 75 percent of all U.S. agriculture. In contrast, today there are about 2.2 million farms, ol which approximately 650.000 are responsible for 75 percent ol agricultural production. Of the emerging technologies, biotechnology is expected to have the larges! Impact The greatest yield increase is ex pected tor dairy production (SN: 4/5/86. p. 213), followed by wheat, soybeans, corn, rice and cotton. Biotechnology will en able agricultural production to become more centralized and more integraled with product processing, says the OTA. It also predicts increased product homogeneitJ The largest farms those with annual grosa sales of more than $250,000 are expected lo adopt the most new tech nology and accrue the greatest economic advantages. Unless there are "subatantlal changes ln the nature and objectives of farm policy." the report says. the traditional moderate-size farm with sales of SI00.000 to S250,000 "will largely be elimi nated as a viable force in American agriculture." To preserve such farms and the rural lifestyle dependent on them. OTA proposes hastening lhe introduction of new lechnolollY on these farms and Increasing their access 10 new marketa. Small subsistence" farms are expected lo persist, but, the report says, "they will continue to lester as an unaddressed social I concern." -~ /

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i~Ol!NT VEflNON. ~H 11;111~ ri '": :a,. .~. -Ii\"" II _,,,,, Dearth says study shows technology is helping large, corporate farms /"4,..,y 1 r / J Glen Dean.:, Democratic candidate for the House of Representatives in the 76th District, spoke lO the Richland County Board of Trustees Association last week. Dearth cited a srudy recently com pleted by the..U~Sif .Iechnolo!:l' A,~sment as a warning that, as technologicaT:ravances continue to assist large, corporately owned farms, it is serving the small farmer by putting him out of business without the necessary govern ment assistance programs. Deanh said the Washington study in dictcd that, in the next 14 years, 50 percent of the farms m this country will be producing 75 percent of the total output. The only way small farmers will continue to survived is through off-farm employment which will subsidize farm output "The largest industry in the 76th House District is agriculture," Dearth ,.,-. said. 'According to the startling results of this study, one million of our current 2.2 million farmers in America will be out of business. Ohio currently has ap proximately 90,000 farmers, and this wtll prove devastating if this is allowed to happen." Among other things Dearth said will affect the small farmer is the increasing credit information demands by lending institutions, and the centralization of cre dit policies by lending institutions. "We will no longer be going to the bank and discussing our needs with neighbors and friends who understand our particular problems, but will be forced to allow some bureaucrat in some cor;,orate office, who has probably never been .on a farm. control our destiny through crun,:iing our hard work, family commitment and will into some fourrnula and then deternune whether or not we TllE (OM)lERCLlL APPEAL "'~'APfllS, THIN. n,; oA;; ;1JN ?SQ 0/)5 \?" :~ l98fi 8V(!8GU.G'S that's not should stay in business nght!" Dearth said government :XJbcy shouLd be aimed at assisting all fJrrnt!rs wward producing a stable economic tnvtrc>n ment. Deanh said he would advocate rhe following: l. For farms over 5250.000 pc,, c1r gross sales, direct government '.!1) ,-:cc~l would be eliminated. 2. Govemment-assiste.d credit :o _,1rge I farms would be available. 3. For small and medium-s<2cd t1cr1'.,. the continuation of pn..:i! -;:.ippvrt 1:--,d direct payment programs. 4. Continuation of def:c:,ccy OJ) ments and pnce-support progr:.tr:1s. 5. New educational progroms that would be aimed at helping farrr;ers ,di their products profitably. 6. Full support of State Treasurer Mary Ellen Withrow's link-deposit sys tern. I j; Jones makes pitch for Agric~nter funds as technology exchange boon to farmers _, 1 By James W. Brosnan .. ~-. 1 1 l Washington Bureau WASHINGTON Rep. Ed Jones (D-Tenn l made a pnch yesterday for $1.8 million io s1 tatrt a_ naftlonal technology exchange for the a est m arm technology at A national in Shelb C gncenter Inter-w Y ounty. lthout such centers. only rich farmers wt~ be able to afford the biogenetic advances an techniques for dramatic production in~r:5es, J_ones told a House Appropriations 1u ommmee_headed by Rep. Jamie Whitten ~MJ55) Agncenter officials will meet with coc\i ens Se1;1ate counterpart, Sen. Thad f ran (R-MlSS.), about the proposed center or1 Appropriate Technology Transfer for Ru ra Areas (ATI'RA). The center would operate as a call-in center for farmers. agriculture extension serv1c~ agents and other agribusmessmen wantm the latest mformatton on technology m farmg mg. J_ones clted a recent report bv the Con: gress1onal Office of Technology .\ssesstiierif" I_ he report said !hat by !he year tmm"roduc: tton ~er acre will increase 15 percent ~or cotton 3 perce_nt for soybeans and 25 percent for wheat. Milk production per cow w!ll dou ble, 1t predicted. "My concern is that large. rich farms will be able to purchase the latest technology and sc1e~uf1c advice on a routine basis and if we don t establish something like ATTRA, small f1afrmers like many of those m my area will be e t m the dust," said Jones. 1 He thanked Whitten for backing off plans to 1m1t a new soil conservation reserve program designed to remove erosion-prone areas from production.

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DROVERS JOURNAL SHAWNEE MISSION, KS w. 70,000 APR 3 1986 ~BUfi.~/J:D Technology to l)eJe .. large farms i ASH[,GTON (KRF) -Ad-vancements in agricultural technology will bring increased pro ductivity, but mostly for large farms, a recent congressional report said. The report by the Office of Technology Assessment concludea' that approximately 1. 0 million farms will disappear by the year 2000, mostly moderate-sized and small farms. By that time, 75 per cent of U.S. agricultural production will come from about 50,000 large farms, which do not need govern ment payments or subsidies to survive, the report said. Smaller farms -those that sell less than $250,000 worth of pro ducts will be less able to adapt to changing technologies that will be necessary to compete interna tionally, the report said. As a result, U.S. competitiveness will re ly primarily on large-scale farm operations. The __ teport stressed that public policy and economics will remain maj~factors in shaping agriculture. It recommended targeting income supports to moderate farms, those with sales between $100,000 and $250,000. Larger farms do not need sub ;,idies, only a stable economic en vironment, the report said. Smaller farms, with less than :~ 100,000 in sales "are not viable economk entities, .. but a small in-l crease in those farms' incomes could have a '"multiplier effect" in rural communities, the r.eport said. MANITOWOC, WI. HERALD TIMES-REPORTER o. & s. 16,500 APR 4 1986 BUM,EJ.JFS Proxmire pushing for milk diversion .,",-'1 By THOMAS GROSE H-T-R Washington Bureau WASHINGTON Egged on by a study claiming milk production will continue to climb to startling levels, U.S. Sen. William Proxmire called again Thw-sday for a milk diversion program. "A sound dairy supply manage ment program is the only effective way to meet the challenge posed by the ocean of milk that will likely con front us by the year 2000," Proxmire said. "I strongly believe that a policy based on the milk diversion program concept is what we need to save the day." Nonetheless, the Wisconsin Democrat has no plans to introduce legislation for such a program, said Ron-Tammen, his administrative assistant. "It would probably be futile. There's not enough votes" in the Senate, Tammen said. Proxmire, however, will continue to push for the measure, he added. The study referred to by Proxmire was published by the Of{~ of Technolo~ Assessme1.1~, and it.look ed a thee ecls'orfechnology on the dairy industry. The OT A findings: By 2000, annual milk production per cow will have jumped by more than 100 percent from the 1982 level. Annual produc tion per cow, in thousands of pounds, was 12.3 in 1982; it will hit 24. 7 by 2000. "These staggering projections send a message, loud and clear, to all those concerned about dairy programs and policies: Now is the time ., to devise and put into place a dairy supply management plan that works," Proxmire said in a prepared. statement. The U.S. dairy industry in recent years has consistently produced huge s~luses of milk, cheese and butter. Smee 1981, the surplus has cost the federal government more than $6 billion. Last fall, the House approved a 1986 farm bill that contained a milk diversion plan that would have paid dairy farmers $10 for every 100-pound reduction in their produc tion. To fund the program, farmers would have paid an assessment. The Senate, however, rejected the idea and Congress eventually passed a farm bill that instead contained a whole-herd buyout program. Also funded by an assessment on dairy farmers, the buyout program attempts to lure some dairy farmers into retirement by having the U.S. Department of Agriculture purchase the entire herds of participating farmers. Proxmire was a co-architect of a temporary, US-month diversion program that ended a year ago. Opponents point to that experi ment as reason enough to reject the plan: Within four month after it end ed, production climbed to prediversion levels.

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FEEDSTUFFS MINNEAPOUSbMINN. W.11,20 APR 14 1986 lfftltffl,n ~L.lft::i.\~~ ../. .. ....,,, r F!,r,!!!:!!~~~ s~g~st~!~~r -~~~'!~m~~!~!s --the future of farming in its report brief on "Technolfarms. With few exceptions, small/part-time farms ogy, Public Policy & the Changing Structure of Large-scale farms (above $250,000 in sales) do (having less than $100,000 in sales) are not viable American Agriculture." One portion of its brief, not need direct government payments and/or subsieconomic entities in the mainstream of commercial concerning number and size of farms, appeared on dies to compete and 1111rvive. Rather, they need a agriculture nor can they be. However, a small this page last week. The portion below addresses relatively stable economic environment so they can increase in the income of each farm in this group implications for policy.) sell what they produce, and they need a base of pubcould have a significant multiplier effect on the local Farm programs, which include the Commodity lie ~nd priva_t~ research whereby they can maintain economy because of the large number of small Credit Corp. purchases and price and income suptheir compet1t1veness. fanns. ports, have major effects on farm size, wealth and Moderate-size farms (having $100,000For the small/part-time farmers who either have a incomes of commercial farmers. The net worth of 250,000 in sales) require farm programs to survive substantial outside income or who have found a large farms is increasing significantly more than and be successful. In particular, income supports niche in the market, the government's role would be that of moderate-size farms under current farm proprovide significant benefits to moderate-size farms. severely restricted. However, small subsistence grams. Large farms receive a very large proportion 'largeting income supports to moderate-size farms farmers, who have limited resources and often lim-of the program payments, although most of these could prolong their survival. To aid this group, the ited abilities, represent a genuine problem for which farms would survive and prosper without farm prorisk of operating in an open market environment public concern is warranted. These indeed are the grams. could be reduced, new technologies that have the rural people left behind. Price and income support 1b assure a diverse, decentralized farm structure, potential for adoption could be made more available prognms can do little to solve their problems. The where all sizes of farms have an opportunity to comto them, and opportupities for employment outside U.S. Department of Agriculture and land-grant'unipete and survive, different policies and programs agriculture could be created for those who are un-. versities have a special responsibility to serve theij would have to be developed for each of the three able to compete. The Extension Service could play a needs. .A I \ \

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NEWS-FREE PRESS CHATTA~,. TEN.N. 0. '56.010 lllN.. lffl,B> APR 4 l986 !!:l!!l..s ,c, { Anthony Harrigan Farm Crisis America's Crisis it,~,..., Of all that bas been said and. wrtttea about tbe farm crim, .... haps tbe IDOi& alarming _report is a, ANTHONY HARRIGAN that .of. the Congressional Office of Teclmolrlj ASsessment which aaseried m te Marcli that Half of the Daticllrla.U mlllloD farmers wm be gone bJ 2000 aacl SO.dallarat farms wm pndace nr. ;,.f;:.~ca.~ food. .. .,_ ~ts a predl~ of able depopulatlOn bl tile fmning -N!lfom of America~ Tile Iois of tbaf many farm.en wouJ'd deatroy the econom1c viaf>lllty of fm.ndredf 'of small towns and dttel. dependent upon a farm economy. lildeed; en tire states would be shaken by such a profound change in the nature of farming. At the same time, the pre diction suggests a concentration of farming such as bas never aisted in the United States.. ft also SUI gests a massive ellmiDation of Jnde. pendent b~;.1f~ today const1~te the fanileeoDOmy. It's bard to argue with tbe Office of Technology Assessment as re gards the shakeout ta.kine place in the farm states. One can't travel throup these states without read ing of foreclosures, auc:tions of farm equipment, the abandonment i of farmiD& by !onetime. farmers, and the failure of banks and other farm-related businesse9,..in towns and cities which traditionally have served farming areas. Some Americans aren't particu larly troubled by the farm crisis. They point out that small business es of many varieties suffer a high rate of failw-e. Other Americans. while unsure u to what can be done about the situation. are disturbed by the sud-. den transformation of American agriculture and the rural way of life. They argue that farming isn't exactly like other businesses as it involves certain values embedded in particular communities. They re call, for example, that President Reagan in his 1984 election cam. paign used advertisements with a putora1 theme. "fteapa. Couniry" Rural institutio~ : .. have much meaning : in our history. was suppoaed ta' be clusle rural America wiUl ita belle.f in hard work, moral virtue, .and respect for national valua The truth is that rura1 life and rural themes have an attraction for millions of Americans who live iD urban environments. They equate rural life with conservative views of life. America's love affair with the ru ral world is explored in sensitive fashion by WWiam Adams. writing 1D the current issue of 77Je Georgi.a Review. He rightly points out that rural institutions are "rich with meaning in our collective life and history.'' Thus a change in;Ameri-can agriculture is much more than an economic change; ifs a change in America's cultural values. One wonders wbether traditional American conservatism will nrvive If hundreds, perhaps thoasande, of small towns are turned into ghost towns between now and the year 2000, as the Office of Technology Asses.unent suggests. Mr. Adams also properly raises tile question of ''the ends of public policy." Americans always have viewed economic changes in terms of larger national goals and pur poses, beliefs and ideals. And Congress, as the voice of tbe people., undoubtedly will ponder whether it wants to let depopulattoa and concentratbr take place; Willy-Dill)', without public polle)' cllrection. Certainly, tile repreaentatiftl of the farm states -from North Ca rolina to Oregon will llave their say. What's invOlved 1n the prediction made by the Office of Technology Assessment is nothing less than the / fabric of American life. / I

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THE LJGHT SAN ANTONIO, TX o. 140,141 s. 202,225 SAT. 160,821 APR lJ 1986 _Bq_'{.lf..D HENRY B. GONZALEZ U.S. REPRESENTATIVE. 20TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT Bill would slap fee on hazardous material haulers '4J.. q; y Every year abo'ft 1.4 wide open for shippers that don't know or the necessary studies. billion tons of hazardous don't bother to follow safety rules. One reThe nation could minimize the danger of material is moved from suit: nearly half the trucks carrying hazdisasters from accidents involving hazard one place to another in ardous cargo are not labeled at all. or carry ous materials shipment. I've proposed a bill the United States. More an incorrect label. that would impose a modest fee on shippers than half of this material Regulation of hazardous materials shipof dangerous cargo. This fee would be used is moved by the nation's ping is anything but effective. Federal. to provide specialized training for all the fleet of 467,000 trucks. state and local regulations are a maze of nation's emergency response personnel and A half billion tons moves contradictions and holes. Result: technical help finance the equipment they need to by ~ge. and 73 million knowledge that exists to ensure safe shiphandle hazardous materials accidents. tons moves by rail. A relatively small ping is not effectively used; According to the congressional Office of amount moves by air. Each shipment ereP'JP'J ~1J.!!2!._0JX Assistance, training for emer-ates danger. Some can cause disasters ..... ._._._..______________ gency personnel is nie most critical need. With common sense the dangef' can be minSecond. my bill would guarantee that local imized. and disasters can be avoided. Cur-One glaring exaniple is governments know what materials are berently. though, we depend more on luck b bl if b ing moved thorugh their community, and than anything else to prevent disasters in t e pro em O W at to by what means. With this Information they volving loads of materials that can explode, do about reckless drivers can plan sensibly and effectively. Third, my poison, burn or choke people to death. bill aims to revitalize regulation and enThe nation has about 2 million people EJEJ forcement. Regulations need to make more who respond to local emergencies. Of sense and be enforced more effectively. All these. 1.2 million are firefighters. No less One glaring example is the problem of of these steps are listed as urgent needs by than 85 percent of the country's fire-what to do about reckless drivers. There the Office of Technology Assessment. fighters~"'unpaid and barely trained vol-isn't any uniform license or training re-My bill would go a long way toward im unteers. ThJJ&. in the event of a disaster inquired for truck drivers who haul dangerproving safety. But other steps could be valving a toad of hazardous material, the ous loads. Drivers often have no special taken. such as the creation of a national Iiperson most likely to be on the scene is a training at all. And. drivers with bad recense and training program for truckers volunteer who knows little or nothing cords in one state can keep right on rolling who haul hazardous materials. A federal about handling such accidents. Few volunby using a license from another state. A naemergency center could track every haz teers have the time to undertake the one tional license would ensure that drivers ardous load and provide instant, clear ad and only national training course on haz. meet the same standards of training and vice on how to handle accidents. ardous materials accidents. There are hunwould be an Immense help in getting danState and local governments can't handle dreds of courses available at state and local gerous drivers off the road. the problem by themselves. There must be levels. but only a fraction of fire and police State and local governments today know a cooperative effort if shipment of danger personnel ever get specialized training in almost nothing about the volume and type ous materials is to be effectiyely regulated. hazardous materials accidents. They don't of hazardous materials moving on their Ukewise, a national effort is needed to pro have the time. and local governments don't roads. railways and waterways. Unless vide the information and training that are have the money. they know what kinds of materials they needed to save liveswhen accidents hapThe federal government regulates shipmust deal with. how much is moved and pen. Disasters aren't inevitable. and it ping containers and mandates that vehicles how it moves. localities simply can't premak_es no sense to ignore the dangers that carrying hazardous materials be clearly pare a sensible emergency plan or effecride on so many freight trains and trucks. marked. But only 109 of 20,000 container tively train the people who must deal with Shippers. insurers and experts alike agree manufacturers are inspected iii a typical disasters. It would be easy to obtain this inon all these things. My bill offers an effec year. and only 5 percent of shipping faciformation. but the federal government has tive and much-needed solution to a problem lites are inspected. Obviously, the door is stopped helping local governments finance that grows every day.

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--~ I 1Jl1hlJ1i1 .. ,; 1111 JI, Ii U!I f "8 111.! ,1ir11.l .. !I 1. 11i1: .11 :1 :--_i --. ~-1::1,. -' .! :. : l1 l(( I 1-i I ( =J n.f lf 11 s ns rf;) ,a.If ij'~JJll J(llf O .+ o 'I n11i:t sJi-1 al.,. il ltt.;ttl 1! ,_Jl l~ril a la. ls. = ;-:' F If l s 1 r J ... ~;~ ~-I e '... l 1$ \ 0 ';,"; I E R f 8 J!Uftf Hdm lif!HUf1:1mm1t111UH ~w,~runi!jlj~~t~iHUHi!ili O" :s I-11 1,., nnrt,a ... It iJ: ,111-... ,1! 1.irl ]11 11Jl:$!fl ti) 11.:!l :11,,[11111u_i,!.t,(1I iti_lljr lr:!l1~'I'~ -1 la.1'111i1 t. -; I ![ t .... al la, sr~-.f ;_Ilia. I ,~ftl 1i; aiia1r1 r ,,-, i5111 air 'I s4!il11~1r&J I t~i!tif a. I f & ; _,. [ J l t 1 i .. J! 8 I i,'' [ II I!. !1iii. Jf !J]1!iI:!!,t ill,11 iwu HdththiJ huhP 8 I-~-1 ,t 111 l-tti1 ,1 11.r-1 11 !! Ii' :-1 1 1-1 fl} ...... ... H1~ :1;um1!1Jil11! Hl!J tni!il!llllll!!I: ODUl(;UI a-i g. 1 ,a.fit f] ~. f.f ~1 I .!--i";i lt -I .. .if t r,. rif g. r ft 1 I 11J i a. st Ir 0 ;-! l-1 r ij!t!I,_iff,1_,~: j1,!11thH ,i tjfl1;JL iHHft11i, E; t g if!alt-.,,,. a.!fiQ.a 1 li!-liJl1~:i:11Je_af" 11!1-~--.. !-ill cs>tjl Ji~1-!I.I ii IJ. a:.111 ,; ~JtlhJtJl.~fll_eilf.i-:-~ill~)! :r s i l l !! rt I 8 ir l I I Ii'! s; i:J 11 a JC : 8 f.l ... ff u~ ah~l( ~JHdlalf ,HH u[1if11i~i.: 1~ujJ.i1,!~ ea n1 iHUu 111i1:1~1m11 nmUht111.iH dhtibH s:-,.. i ,J 1 if I a; i !l I ti 1 1 I~ i 1-1 .. I i 1 s. ~: 1 I. s 1 a .. e 1r t -: s J 1 I t ir a g c; E-.. ..

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DENVER, CO COLORADO STA.TESMAN 'I/, ,.191 APR 11?36 ll$!41JEJ./.F$ Wldb: New safety amendments to hazardous materials transportation, cont. c~rr-... 1 __ ( SWa woul-1 be n,quiJed 10 implement .-""'" proc,,dulel ibr lic:emiDg dri""" of hazanlws ma1enals in )all time. If a swe ha a belt.et idea or additional rcquinomeD11, ... allow that flo.ibility. If somostai.. do no< adopc .-ncw dri-qualifications they would be subject ro looing 15 9li of dleir MCSAP grant in each year in which the ,_ does not comply with these slallqalds. While I don't oltea llhocau, this type of penalty, the need for unifunnity in licensina drivers who transpon dan1~rous. materials is clear: -have similar laws. there will be the tendency for dri""'5 ro get licensed in the stJlle w11h the easiest qualif'ICllions. This would clearly undenrune the bencfill of. the pn,gnun. This abo n,quiros those who handle hazardous malerials in the loading and unloading stages to know how to do so. NIIClear Tnmptadoll This sectioo requires the Secmary of Trsnsponatioo to conduct ID IDli,sil of the risb !O health, Slli:ly and the environment associated with the transponation of high-level nuclear -and spent fic. ro the five po
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Jeanette Reed Is comforted by her brother, Peter Reed, at the ports, Ms. Reed found two bodies In the basement of her neighscene of this ';'rnfng's in Millbury. According to ,.. bar's home. GAZffl'E P!40To a,,zweisMAN A city mourns again Leominster student found dead in bedroom By PAUL DELLA VALLE OFTwEA~STA" LEOMINSTER Once again the city mourns. George Hendenon, 14, an honor roll student, a member of the hip scllool cross country team, a:.'llice kid" died yesterday.. n .. 1:.... .. .. ,..a ...... .. ... ,. _,., ..,""" Worcester firefighters David Haddad and Barney Murphy attach an inflatable pressure safety seal around a barrel during a training session on handling hazardous waste at Central Fire Headquarters. GAZETTE PHOTO av Roa WEISMAN Handling hazardous waste spills -the firefighters' nightmare ,, I' ,-:--.~--.a-..,.I' ,~ .. -;-... ,.1By -ROSCOE C. BLUNT Jr. ... OF Tl+ <.Aliff& STAFF Fire officials dread the possibiliti~1 A .tank truck crashes on Route I-290 and spills thousands of gallons of toxic chemicals. The wind is from tbe east and a cloud of thick, choking fumes starts to move toward tbe downtown business district inhabited by thousands of workers. In another case, a 20-car train rumbles slowly through the Southbridge Street, south Worcester sec tion. Related story on Page 13. Suddenly, a decayed, poorly maintained track bed lets go and the train rolls onto its side. Several of the taolc cars rupture and thick ooze pours down an em bankment to the Blackstone River or Leesville Pond tributaries. The incidents are imaginary, but they could happen. ---TURN TO FIREFIGHTERS /PAGE TWO

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Fire,fighters dread hazardous waste spills CONTINUED FROM PAGE ONE Industrial carrier accidents such as these are occurring almost weekly around the nation. Each year, there are more than 11,000 accidents involving hazardous ma terials on the nation's highways. rail lines and waterways. They could poison, even kill, hundreds of people if emergency response is not fast enough and ac tion by authorities is not correct. Even at best, if there were no immediate health threat to the community, the environment could be irreparably harmed. U then were a major bazardoul chemical or radioactive waste spill here, could the city's emer gency agencies cope with it as the public 1w a right to expect? The anawer is somewhat clouded. Uthe spill or leak were minor, the fire and police departments could probably handle the situa tion correctly and efficiently, authorities say. Uthe accident were major, the city would not be able to cope with it quickly, with mimmum danger to the population, the officials say. The situation is considered to be generally worse in smaller com mullities, particularly towns with call fire departments. "No city or town in tbe country is trained or equipped to cope with a really major hazardous chemical spill," Fire Chief James F. Nally said. The Office of Tec~l9.iLAs sessment, a congressional research agency, agrees. The OT A, In a Ntcent report, said police and firefighters "urgently oeed more training so they can respond properly to accidents involving trucks., trains and barges carrying nuclear materials and hazardoul cllemicals." Edith Page, OT A director, bas been quoted as saying. "Three quarters of tbe first responders are not adequately trained to deal with bazardous materials." Officials are not able to say how many trains or trucks carrying nu clear waste or hazardous materi als pass through the Worcester area. Estimates on how many are carrying hazardous materials range from 25 percent to as high as 70 to 75 percent. Chief Nally says he started taking steps a year ago to better pre pare bis department for such acci dents. Firefighters are now learning how to identify hazardous sub stances and bow to deal with them. The department also is assembling a. hazardous-materials response team. Although it is ongoing, the new training program is not expected to reach its next level of readiness until the fall. Few agencies in the city are equipped for chemical accidents. Worcester police generally take their lead from the Fire Department in handling chemical spills and have little special training such emergencies. Worcester's Civil Defense Agen cy is not responsible for first-response action in such cases. Its dis aster planning operations and drills have been virtually at a standstill in recent years. partment training officer. and Capt. David J. McKeown, hazard ous materials officer. McNamara and McKeow are as sembling a SO-member hazardous materials r1!Sponse team at the Central Fire Station. Training, us ing contamination suits, is already under way. The department plans to outfit a truck with new hazardous-materi als equipment inccluding gas and radiation indicators and other spe cial tools. It should be on the line by the fall. The truck will carry 12 d ispos a ble contamination suits and six high-protection suits with commu nications systems and compressed air packs. "We are not completely ready to resolve a major situation as quick ly as we would like, but as the money becomes available, we are getting there," McNamara said. Soldiers trapped For tbe past year, tbe Fire Department has been giving its baz. ardous material course to all fire fighters at the department training academy. Worcester has been lucky in the past. There have been close calls with hazardous chemicals on Joima Road and Southbridge Street, but no accidents so large that fire officials couldn't handle them without injury, Fire officials think it is only a matter of time until the city bas a life-threatening toxic accident. In a few months, they hope, the city will be better prepared to han-nw M8COATED Jl!RISS TEGUCIGALPA. HONOIJRAS Anti-Sandinista rebels claimed to have surrounded up to 1,500 Ni caraguan soldiers in southem Hon duras and said they could foil any attempt to break the encirclement and retreat back acroa the bor der. Yesterday, U.S. military bellcopws ferried about 600 Hood ran soldiers to the remote area to join another 3,000 Honduran troops near the border. Honduras has said its soldiers are not direct ly involved in the fi;Khting. Nicaragua's leftist Sandlmsta government denies sending any soldiers onto the territory of 1ta nortllem neighbor and claims tbe It is coordinated by District Fire Chief Jobn P. McNamara, Fire De-reports of an incursion are designed to promote the Reagan ad:;~~!!!!;;;;;~;~;;;;;;;;; ministratiOn's campaign in Con-,I gress to allocate $100 milllon in aid to the Contras. Accounts of the fighting could not be verified independently. Honduran military sources said soldiers were ordered to keep jour nalists out of the area. However, Hoaduran military intelligence IIOIU'Ct!S who spoke on condition of anonymity said that tbe Contru bad killed %00 San dinista troops and w~ ;so others since full-scaie fighting broke out Saturday. Honduran military sources have said 1,500 Sandinistas crossed the frontier Saturday. Broken a men( A broken necklace. a ring with a mi~ jewelry pieces that brought you f Beneath our main floor then!! a co, as large as what you We employ a master engraver. th1 masl!!r watchmakers and a comple conscientiously strMng to give you have come to expe, ,i11.. _,.,_. ---1..1~-:-~-1~.-.-..... ...... dle one. r"S ~

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WORCESTER, MA EVENING GAZETTE It ~4.H1 \il:\R n 1 q,1c; BU(f1(fU"S Coop8ration helps in toxic cleanup By ROSCOE C. BLUNT Jr. 0F""'GAZ&m!ST,r While fire officials-concede they could be better prepared for accidents ID.901~ ing toxic materiaJI, they say tr~ must sllare !fie rapomibility. The dangers to people and the environment don't encl with the prompt dilpatdl of a weJl-trained fireflghttna team. ac cording to local officals and a Coqres. sional raearcll agency. Related sto,y on P~:an.. .. : ..... .. A recent repon by tile ledeal Oftitr TechQOlogy Asseument found tbat n to 50 percent of tile identlflcaUon placards or stickers required OD bUardous materi als or chemicals are incorrect. The report, based OD surveys of state officials throughout tbe country, also found that shipping documents are often incomplete. Capt. David J. McKeown, Fire r.epan ment hazardous materials officer, said that when firefighters respond to a burn.. 're ing or leaking trues OI' train car, tbe fiFet"' wo., action is to try to identify tbe material 'a.la; Sl'IU. HVIIIITY Gu; Depend.Ina on the severity of the spill, 51111 the rankin& fire official at the scene may ,,. 1 order an evacuation. -ear Police enforeit the evacuation order SflfJ out to a &eocraphical distance determined by fire official 1u;ui Depending on tbe believed severity of aivu the spill and ti impending danger, bigller fire offJ.Cals may be called. to the !-'... scene. U tile accident involves a truck. offi cials try to identify the chemicals from a bill of laden or a way bill if tbe accident involves a train. n. 1g Worcester fire officials say mislabeled chemical containers have been a problem in the past. Furthermore, mixed loads when Worcester firefighter David Haddad, in JJafety stJit and air mask, listens to instructions during nazardous waste ma terla/f treining session at CentraJ Fire Headquarters. brought together th.rough an accident. can cause totally different chemicals and thereby complicate the firefighters at tempts to control the situation. As an example. common lawn fertiliz er with a high nitrate content becomes a volatile explosive material when miJ:ed with domestic home heatina oil, officials say. The OTA estimated that 500,000 ship ments of hazardous materials are mov ing daily on United States highways. rail lines and waterways. The survey said there have been an av erage of 11.462 accidents annually be tween 1973 and 1983 nationwide involv ing hazardous substances. Decisions by a fire official at a spill GAZETTE PHOTO BY ROS WEISMA'I site trigger a chain of assistance request calls by the Fire Alarm Division. Division Superintendent Ralph R. Thomson enlists the aid of Chemical Transportation Emergency Center in Washington for chemical identification. Thomson can also call the federal and ,., TURN TO TOXIC /PAGE 14

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1-To~ic waste cleanup problems uy CONTINUED FROM PAGE 13 u a m We >Ji !Ql >et r I state environmental agen cies, the state police hazardous materials team in Concord, the National Fire Prevention Associa tion in Quincy, various railroads for way bill information and Worcester Polytechnic Institute chem ists. Some city officials in the past have said the amount of cooperation from. government agencies :' t~~!:f :.ed from exce~lent to quesThere have been.,complaints in Ins the past of slow response by these >U1! agencies to an emergency. 1:; One official who requested that his name not be used, commented, 1 .Il "Everybody is willing to assist but no one is able to tell us how to cope with a lethal or dangerous situation." Worcester's Civil Defense Agen cy, though not responsible for firstresponse in such cases, has been virtually at a standstill in recent years. Before 1983, the Civil Defense Agency held quarterly planning meetings at the Emergency Opera tions Center in the basement at police headquarters. Representatives of city depart ments. area hospitals and the state Civil Defense prepared for disas ters. Local emergency workers conducted mock disaster drills. "Even though we had a long way to go, it was a degree of readiness the city could live with," said Robert J. Hennigan Jr., former CD di rector and now an assistant city solicitor. "It was a constant train ing process." Now that the CD training pro cess is stalled, Hennigan said the city is "probably not as prepared as we could and should be." Fire officials say they would welcome any assistance available ,.. from the private sector. This assistance, he said, could come in two forms. First. persons with chemical or hazardous material expertise to lecture or make themselves other wise available to fire officials dur ing emergencies. Secondly, McKeown said, there is a great need for cooperation from companies having large quantities of special absorbant materials like quick dry sand. soda ash, lime, moisture-free sand, ver miculite, sodium bicarbonate, floating chemical containment booms or absorbant pads. "We will pay for these materials or their use. We just need the ma terials readily available when we need them. U these companies could be placed on our emergency list and could offer fast assistance, it would be most hefpful." "We would welcome help from any company or school," McKeown said.

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.. ~--I I I I I I V" ( State, Local Governments Taking Bigger Role in 'HazMat' Transport Hlatoric~~iht federal government quirements and regulations, OTA sug has taken the lead role in regulation of gested, would simplify and improve hazardous materiala transportation and compliance by shippers and carriers. safety enforcement. However, state and Identified as the areas where uniformity local governments, prompted by a growis most needed were licensing, permit or ing awarenesa of the dangers !)Oiled by registration requirements and shipment hazardous materiala transportation. are notification systems. assuming greater responsibilities in this Finally, OT A found that development area. of local routing restrictiollll should be In a recent study undertaken at the based on inter-jurisdictional con request of the Senate Commerce, sll;ltation and the use of explicit safety Science and Trallllportation Committee, cnteria. the Office of Technology Assessment OTA's findings in the area of emer found that states mirror federal lune-gency response included the following: tions and mpollllibilities to a degree. -Additional training for public safety However, the structure is by no means personnel in hazardoua materials emer uniform or even comparable from state gency response is lll'gently needed, to state, the Congressional office said, -Movements of gasoline and petro adding that diversity of function also leum products (which <:Olllltitute 50 per exists at the regional and local levels of cent of the hazardoua materials trans govemment. ported) account for more haz.ardous maAccording to OT A, i:oncerns of state terial.9 trallllportation accidents, injuries and local governments about the transand damages than other classified com portation of hazardous materiala focus modities. on aeciden~ention and enforcement, -Movement of corrosives and other em,,rgency response and training, and hazardous materials that pose special -pianning and data gathering. And, in its hazards are of concern to state and local study, OT A found that many localities officials. need financial aaaistance in all these ar--The IIIOilt pressing nationwide train-eas. ing need is for intensified training for In the area of prevention and enfirst responden. forcement, OT A found that continued -Additional and advanced training is support is needed for state multimodal appropriate for public safety personnel hazardous materials enforcement aein large juriadlctions, along !D&,jor trans tivities. [t also recommended that penal-portation corridors or in states with ties for regulatory violations be conheavy concentration of hazardous mate sistent acrosa governmental and jlll'-rials industriea. isdictional levels and that they be suf--Safety information accompanying ficiently large to discourage future in-hazardoua materials often is not suffractio111. ficient to enable emergency mponders OTA also found that state and local to protect themselves or the sur-enforcement personnel need additional rounding public in the case of an acci-training, as well as current information dent. on hazardous materiala regulatiollll for -Determining in advance who is to be all modes of transport. in charp at an incident and the role of National standards establishing unieach participating agency ill imperati1'JI form state hazardous materials refor an effective response. l'I "" TRAFFIC WORJ.D WASHIN&TON,Jt.C. WIEKLY 13,'!UU MAR 24 1986 8fflz
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r n,, ,., ,;i :,i_ iii_ \J' '. ;i I r:!J,I ,-) t '! .1 ( I I. ~JUh ll!L1_1JEU.EI$ Hazardous materials transportation act under fire (,,,1,y There has already been some small-caliber fire over reauthorization of the Hazardous Materials Transportation Act (HMTA). But look for the heavy artillery to weigh in soon. The Senate Commerce Committee has asked the Office of Technology AssessIIlent (OTA) to recommend changes in HMTA., and those suggestions are expected to be made public in M93. Also, the hazardous materials advisory committee at the Dept. of Transportation has made 12 recommendations for amending the HMTA.. A number of proposals currently in Congress could be incorporated into any HMTA reauthorization. Richard Doyle, director of distribution for the Chemical Manufacturers Assn. (CMA), s93s chemical companies support a proposal by Senator John Danforth (R-MO) to establish a "National Commercial Motor Vehicle Operators Li cense." Currently, states have widely varying license requirements for drivers of tank trucks that carry industrial goods. Doyle thinks a federal licensing system, run by the states, should have additional requirements for drivers of chemical shipments, such as knowing emergency response method.

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I I I I I I I ENGINEERING TIMES ALEXANDRIA, VA ML 7~.~1! APR 1986 BvRlf'Ptf{"f O'.lil Reports U.S. Needs Way To Train First Responders to Hazardous-Materials Spills _,.,.:. When accidents involving hazard ous materials occur. the first safetv officers to arrive at the scene are usually local firemen and police, many of whom have little or no training or ex perience in dealing with many t}pes of hazardous materials. The most pressing national need in emergency response, according to a report released by the congressional Office of Technology_ Assessment (OTA), is finding an effective-way to train first responders in how to han d le different types of hazardous ma terials. In large metropolitan areas where a number of hazardous-materials ac cidents have occurred, a trained hazardous-materials team may be available. However. most first respon ders in smaller urban or rural areas have not received instruction for dealing with hazardous materials, despite many existing training pro grams. Moreover, no national standards for such programs are currently in place, leading to the independent development of different training courses, some of which are inade quate. National guidelines or training standards for emergency responders are needed to ensure adequate train ing. Financial assistance for training and for maintaining emergency response capabilities is needed by many localities. Petroleum Products More than 180 million shipmenu of hazardous materials are made in the U.S. each year, about 500,000each day, according to OepL of Transpor tation figures. These shipmenu con tain a wide variety of substances; more than 2400 chemicals, explo sives, wastes1and radioactive materi als are listed as hazardous materials in the Federal Code of Regulations, and the list is growing. Although most hazardous-mate rials accidents do not cause fatalitic3, they often bring on serious injury and substantial damage in addition to being frightening and spectacular. This has motivated the public to de mand strong enforcement of safety rules and improved emergency response capabilities. Gasoline and petroleum produclS account for more hazardous-mate rials transportation accidenlS, inju ries, and damages than do other cfas. sified commod11ies, because they are the most frequently transported haz ardous cargo. Additional safety meas ures and training programs for drivers and handlers could reduce the incidence of such accidents, OTA reports. To help prevent accidents and pro tect public safety, state and local gov ernments may restrict the routes that hazardous-materials shippers use or the hours that shipments are per mitted. Regulators also may require licensing, registration, or permits; advance notification of shipment or other special procedures; and escorlS for hazardous-materials movements. According to OTA. those require' menu ,and restrictions vary from' state co state, leaving transporters un sure whether they are complying with local regulations or not. Many industry representatives as well as state and local Jo,ernments strongly support esiabhshment of a national truck driver's license and of uniform guidelines for registration, permit. and shipment notification re quiremenu. They also feel that penal ues for violating regulations should be consistent .across governmental and jurisdictional levels and substan tial enough to discourage future in fractions. OTA cautions that contin ued federal support for states' hazardous-materials enforcement activities is important, since federal in spection forces are shrinking owing to budget constrainu. Safety information accompanying hazardous materials is often faulty or insufficient, according to OTA. State enforcement officials have found that 25-50% of placards on hazardousmaterials shipments are incorrect. Shipping papers are sometimes incomplete or inaccessible. Emergency crews must assess the risk.. of the hazardous material and make decisions on how to respond based on information that may or may not be accurate. The wrong response to a hazardous material endangers both emergency personnel and the neighboring communities. Placards would be more helpful if they showed more clearly the degree of hazard of the material, and shipping papers could include more information on the nature of the hazard posed and accident-mitigation 1echniques. To plan for accident prevention and to improve emergency response in the event of an accident, states and localities need to know what types of hazardous-materials accidents might occur in their areas, which locations have the highest risk, and what types of materials are most likely to be in volved. Because of the lack of a reliable na-tional hazardousmaterials transpor~ tauon data base, state and local gov er nmenu are performing their own studies to determine what is transported near, within, and through their communities. These data collec tion and planning activities serve to coordinate and improve communica tion between the numerous separate groups that are concerned with hazardous-materials transportation and emergency response, OTA re ports. Copies of the special report. "Transportation of Hazardous Mate rials: State and Local Activities: are available to the public at the U.S. Government Printing Office (GPO), Su perintendent of Documents, Wash ington. 0.C. 20402: (202) 783-3238. The GPO stock number is 052-00301016-0. The price is $3.75.

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--.-----lf.UIIYO.~POll ..... eawnlCIL -:tlildiavac:cinaledwiltla'!llfulcalldllNdte."ThialilnpletllChncllogy,-etwo-prongedneedle lilll. drop Of v-=ine i.iw-, 111e ~-al.,. tachlGlogies creditad with Jradlcllltng smallpox. Vaccinallon has great patantilll for pr-,a,,g ilk-. in Ille tlopics. ""1erwhundledaotmilflonsotpec,plearedvonicallyffllUUyone-tenthotthairlivas, says the U.S. of Tachnology AIIHlmanl. ProplN Agalnat TroplcalD ....... 'v )....7 7 Y New tools of biotechnology may be on the verge of controlling infec tious diseases common in the primarily tropical developing world, according to a new study by the U.S. 98f'of TesJmology AsesslJUllll( A). Diseases such as malaria, lep rosy, and schistosomiasis.are most common in less-developed coun tries In the tropics because of the social, economic, and climatic con ditions there, although such dis eases spread to industrialized countries through immigration and travel. Average life expectancy in developing countries is nearly 20 years shorter than in developed countries, and as many as 20 of every 100 Third World babies die in their first year because of diarrheal diseases. Biotechnology and immunology are two promising areas of research, and, combined with traditional research in parasitology and infectious diseases, may help toa.1-FUTllUST BETlSDA, HO 8l-flGNTHLY 30000 APR/Ol./l.SBS leviate
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AMERICAN MEOIC,l,l ~E'NS CHICAGO. !LL. '.'/. 278,700 -~pc L1 : '; ?'vtf,8..fU'S Clinical research deserves high priority -~ ~-: --.-'rv G~rdo~ K. Macleod, MD The impac1 oi d1,1gnosis-related groups IORGs) on clinical research has been ~vedooked by much oi the merl1c,1I community. The DRGs' prospective pavment system {PPS) has no provision to pJ\' for clinical experimentation despite potential cost savings not to mention hedlth benefits from research and development (R & DI in the biomedical suences. Continwng changes in the medical care system warrant consideration ot hovv to integrate clinical research into the medi to pav ior additional ,-ravs, lab proce dures. or davs in the hospital \vhen re quired for a dinical research protocol. Now, DRG/PP5 has ,h1fted responsibilitv to the hospital tor the support oi clinical as well as other kinds or biomedical re search. The hospitciJ's. indbditv to support such research could serioush: impc1ir soci etal benefits derived from existing programs. The federal Office oi Technologv ,\s sessment. h,lS h,~hii~hierl. the trend toward the extincti;,n (;f clinic.:aJ research in cal megacorporaUons on the horizon and an e,traorrlinan!v \\ell-written, 232, <11e the propo;,ed voucher svs1em now before Congress. The recen1 changes in hospital pay ment mechantsms under DRGs and PPS made no allowance for the extra research costs for any Medicare patient even when involved in a governmentallv sponsored clinical pro1ocoL The DRG sY>tem pays repor on. ferncJ're's Pru,pectNe cH'merJt 5JlStem, subtitlerl 5trateg1e~ for haluaC/ng Cost. Quality. Jnd \led1ca/ Technologv. Unfortunately, only seven p,1ges or 3c,i) of the total pagination are devoted to clirn cal research, but even tlm much is an important beginning for surfacing the likelihood ot the loss ol benefits from this the hospi1al a fixed rate tor a given diagkind oi scientific im estigdl,on. nosis regardless oi how hospital resources are used. Because clinical research is most often conducted In teaching hospi tals, they are particularlv aiiected by DRGs. Many of the hospital services for potentiallv beneficial research protocols will be unfunded, even those that might help to cure an acutelv ill patient or to improve the qudlitv ot fife for someone otherwise incurablv or terminr1lly ilL Payment of research costs before passage of DRG/PPS was contrary lo 1he intent of Congress in the original ,\,1edicare legislation. Presumably, the ,.i11011al Institutes of Health or private sources would have to pay for all clinical re search. However. Medicare's initial cost reimbursement payment mechanism d,d supplement the cost of clirncal research. These pavments represented a not-too h1dden subsidy for clintcal rese,irch. IT WAS l'-OT uncommon tor 'v1erlicare THOSE PRECIOUS seven pages focus attention on the pote11tiallv negative et fects of ORGs on clinical rese,m:h ,ind arc highly critical oi the etiects ol DRGs on clinical tridls, particuiar!v in cancer re search. But the situation is much worse than presented rn the report. :-..;o mention is made of the effects of DRGs on basic biomedical research, behavioral research, or ep1demiologic,1I research .. All of these research modalities impJd on diniL,11 re~ search and wiJI be subiect to its -,,rn,e fate. The effect oi DRG~ nn these other morlalities !enrls credenn:~ lo conlerns that chnical re.:;earch prn,grams will sutter even more drastic,.1.lh thLHl the report considers. We also should be concerned about DRG/PPS legislation returning us to the two-tiered clinical research S\'Stem that we had before the advent or ,'v1edicare one tor the rich and one ror the poor. Only this time the Sttllcllion is !U'-r re versed from that nt J b~ gone erJ. "('~', experimental protocols Louid be madt available only to those 1,vho cm pJV r'or e'bur~h (,r,-1duate Public Health. De1jt, ni h't:aith \dminr,tralwn, ?i(t.,hur":;h ..;up-.Reprinted .1.,1th oerrni~~,.-on rom rhe \f. ie_w_henv Loun/\ \led1c1i S1_.1( n'r\ E)ul!tf111. .'darch 8. I CJ.Hh.

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,., ____, Professional Perfonnance 4,059,000 Secretaries' Numbers Increase Despite Office Automation I ~,,;;--. America has become an information society. The economy is driven as surely by the incessant demand for information as it is by the continuing necessity of converting raw materials into finished products. The majority of American workers are now white-collar workers, and about 45% of all American workers work in offices. Almost any place where information handling is the main activity is called an office, whether it is one person at a desk or a complex hierarchy of executives, professionals, and clerical workers. An office is wherever "office work" is done, and "office work" is the processing and use of information for the purpose of tracking, monitoring, recording, directing, and supporting complex human activities. One of the striking consequences of information and communication technologies is that together they make much "office work" independent of the place where it has usually been performed; that is, office work can noN be performed in the home, in airplanes and trains, and in other countries-not just in the office. "Office automation" is used broadly to mean the application of microelectronic information technology and communication technology to office work. It includes large "mainframe" computers, smaller minicomputers, personal computers or microcomputers, stand-alone word processors, and the many and diverse communication devices and systems that can link them together. The first offices may have been in the homes of Babylonian merchants or Phoenician traders, or perhaps they were construction project offices in the palaces of Egyptian Pharaohs. Almost certainly something like an office came into existence as soon as records could be kept of the exchange of goods, on clay tablets, chisled stones, papyrus, and quipus (knotted cords used by Peruvian Indians who had not developed a form of writing). Office work is inseparable from commerce because it is concemed with gathering, keeping, and using information about human activities, particularly those that have to do with the production and exchange of goods and services. If office work began in the homes of mer-Based on excerpts from Automation of America's Offices, 1985-2000, a 1985 report of The Qf!ice at Iecbno/ogit.Ass.essmJ3_1Jk.,_ created in 1972 as an analytical arm of the Congress of the United States. chants and traders, it has nevertheless for most of history been done in central locations close to the production of goods and services. The office plays the same role for an organization that the brain plays in a living organism. It receives information flowing in from all parts of the organization (or organism) and from the external environment, processes that information and sends ~ck responses, instructions, and commands through an extended nervous system-established channels of communication. At the dawn of written history, clerks and scribes were the first office workers. Infor mation-handling work has always carried with it a degree of respect or status (even when many scribes were slaves), because it requires skills and education that, through most of history, few people had. The tools used in this work were for thousands of years very simple, basically writing implements and something to write on, and some means of storing the records of written information sent or received. As the scale of human activities ihcreased, the information about them became more voluminous and more diversified. The tools became slightly more sophisticated (a bookkeeping ledger rather than a stone tablet or roll of papyrus), and office workers became more numerous and more specialized. When clocks were invented, the work became more subject to. measurement, pacing, and management control. When electric communications were invented, it became less sensitive to proximity but more sensitive to time. But not until the advent of the telephone, the typewriter, and the adding machine, near the end of the 19th century, was a significant part of the work automated. The mechanical stage of office automation (1800-1920) was followed by the electromechanical stage (1920-1960), with electric typewriters and calculating machines. Through the mechanical and electromechanical eras of office automation, whitecollar work continued to be labor intensive. Capital investment in office work has al ways been low compared to capitalization in other economic sectors such as manufacturing and agriculture. About 85% of office operating costs are labor costs. Now capitalization is occurring rapidly, in the form of information and communication technologies that are transforming the nature of white-collar work. Many other forces have affected office work in recent decades. The scale, geographical scope, and concentration of economic enterprise, and therefore of offices, have increased. Some sectors of industry and commerce have expanded and some have shrunk in importance. The growing pervasiveness of science and technology as components of the economy has both increased the demand for data and changed the nature of the information handled in offices. There has been a strong tendency to professionalize and credentialize many office occupations. The office workforce has also changed, The average educational attainment-etof fice workers has increased, yet the educational gap between office workers and the general population has narrowed or disappeared. Women, once a very small part of the office workforce, now make up the larger part of it. Changes in values, lifestyles and. some claim, the work ethic-have affected office workers along with all others in society. These trends are all important. But technology, or the tools people use, have a primary effect on their work, how it is done, and how it is rewarded by society. Any new technology usually replaces an older technology or human labor, or both. Quill pens replaced the scribes' chisels. Typewriters replaced the quill pens. Since the invention of the "newfangled writing machine" and the training of women (a low-cost labor source) as "typewriters," as they were first called, their numbers in the office workforce have increased. There was little change in the way secretaries performed their work or in the equipment they used, until the 1970s brought word processing-electronic typewriters with CRTs (cathode ray tubes)-and more change than at any time in the previous 100 years. Secretaries' numbers have increased to 4,059,000, reports the Bureau of Labor Statistics, despite office automation. With continuing technological advancements in office equipment, secretaries have continued to adapt and to utilize the equipment. The timeline on the next page illustrates the growth of the secretarial workforce be ginning in 1870, compared to continuing ad vancements in office equipment technology-especially typewriters and now personal computers, equipment secretaries continue to master. 7 "' Cl = E :I 0 "' C: "' Cl 4t .c :n ..J :D -0 :g -.5 9

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DALLAS, TX POST TRIBUNE w. n,ooo ,Bl ~.r ;J .3! .. :/?(?_'L.i..'S COMPUTERS LARRY ROBINSON ~Mifl'.O(~Jiliiit ,l{ t~;~:~~{; ~t"/mslituted poiicies ifr~s, ~cry iiinety;'min eriimo~i(:~ydisign. can point. U} as good WiU or ]:iis company, Silo~ l)l'snel. VDT~ Jhfs dehate Jll3Y t& on a:t ti\e 'moii't iinportant conclllsl firinaiions of wiiaf hail .. shl)re d>mpetilion, he.llth pr;oble mem paralysis. What we do abo'.tii'thll thatth;e government ha~ gi1tefi up rei ,_.,,, .. :.,',;:, ,, .. ,':;,.,--.. ,,

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What will our brave new workplace be like? ,1..."11'-' By Neesa Sweet ( "\\'hen we're looking at developaloud to a computer/printer conToday, voice-recognition techused prirnariJv in science a:-.d J~-ing technologies, we have to resole anywhere in your office. You nology has progressed to the fense. It seems a pretty safe bet that the office is still going to be around at the rum of the century. \ccording to a repon by the Con~essional Offic~oi ~Qlogy ssessment, a utper cent of Affiencan workers already work in offices and that percentage is likely to increase. But what will those offices be like? What kind of office technology will we be using'? That's a little harder to predict. Not that we can't take a shot at it. It's just that most predictions are made on current trends. And trends have a dis turbing tendency to change. Most market research projec tions reach only into the I 990s. serve four or five spot5 on any might tell it to prepare letters point where a computer can recIf voice recognition bec;:imes list of 10 for what we don't know offering a discount on Model 19 ognize a limited vocabularv widely available, then rhe cvm about yet';~ said Tom Elliott, difor all of the salesmen selling spoken slowly by one person who purer, combined "1th special ;,..,' rector of strategic business prac-.over quota, include a picture of has spent a great deal of time ficiai intelligence software, would tices at International Data Corp., Model I 9 and ~ave the letters, speaking those words into the be able to prepare our ler:~:-cc: a Framingham, Mass., market reready for signature, at my desk.". system. The technology is being sit in on a meeting, take .:.:::es search firm. To carry out your command, used in applications such as facand distribute recommen"""::.:.:.s. Disclaimers aside, we very literthe computer has to understand tories, where a worker needs to On a more mundane ltve:, :: ally might be "talking to our your words, know they come ~~cinghi! s~phl; ~~PJ::, -:ahyil! could take orders over rhe ,ele work station walls" sometime in from you, translate your "natural serial number or the status of phone or, combined with spe$C:l the future-and getting a relanguage" command into a comsynthesis, "respond" to a ~us-sponse. We might be waking up, mand it "understands," prepare a quality control. tomer's request. rolling over and finding our elecletter according to rules of cor-By 2000, we might have voiceThe idea behind voice entr; is tronic mail without leaving reel s;11tax and your office procerecognition systems that ,_,ill rec-to make it easier :ind fasrer to home .. -\nd we might be asking dure, access both the quota and ognize a wide vocabulary and enter data into an electronic sysour software for advice on how the sales list for the recipients multiple expressions, spoken by rem. to handle a delicate negotiation and, finally, find your work stanearly anyone at a normal pace, with a supplier. tion. The first step is voice recogperhaps through the application Optical character recognition 1-_}__c ontinu~ on page 40 By 2000, you might be talking rut1on. of supercomputers now being ---

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The future Whafwill our workplace be like -in the ye~r 2000? cii'f;tinued from page 39 L --, [OCR] is also likely to be playilrg a greater role. OCR devices. orig inally limited to reading only certain typestyles, are becoming more tlexible. It is likely that systems will SO
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CHICAGO, IL CHICAGO TRIBUNE 0. 776,350 SUN. 1,137,670 ,AT ~11.117 11pi:; h l98S P'!.!J/j_EJ.J.G'S .A---~ VUf workplace Ill the year 2000 Continued from page -10 are important rt is :he linkages bet\\:~er. t.:chn0Jog1es-and be~ 0veen such integrated .;....-stemsthat are Ukel\' to pro\ e most s1emficant. -There's no doubt that the kev concept in office automatiofl todav is integration: said Fred Knight, v.ith Hinsdale-based BCR Enterprises. a publishing firm specializing in telecommunications. "By the year 2000. it 1s likely that voice. data and \1deo will all be digital transmissions traveling over [integrated] sys tems and the 1de:i 1.1,ill be to have standard outlets that can accom modate anv kind of computer, digital 01ce and probably video stem, within an office. "In a community like Chicago, with its financial services trans actions and manufacturing ac tivities, this kind of integrated networking capability will be nta1: Knight pomts to theconcept of the Integrated Services Digna! '\etwork f!SD,]. aimed at cre ating an ,ntograted channel for ,111 cypes of dignal communica :ion. .-\lreadv a trial of such a :1erwork. :n{--olvirnz \,kDonald's Corp. and lllinms -Bell. is sched uled to begin this vear. "Integration can mean the abilitv to do multiple things at once," said Ron Czaplewski, ISDN.. product manager at Illinois Bell. "For example. you might get a digital message on a console about a call coming m while you're talking to someone else. The message might tell you the number and the directory listing of the caller." [This is ex pected before the end of this decade]. Integration "ill also allow vou to request access to various networks such as voice, private line, packet or a direct digital data connection, depending on whether vou want to have a con versation, send a picture, or send a group of numbers-all, very probably, from an integrated '.\Ork ~ration at \OUr r ekcommunic3tions ...,c t\\een computers J.re ,1lr~:iJ., :.1 part of lhe office cn\irnr:.~n'2nc both throu_gh pr.1,are iocal :Jrea netorks [[A:--.;sj 1nJ 0\~f ,:ommerc1aJ telephone lrnes via ..:om~ puters and modems. A. grov.ing number of businesses use elecrromc mail and computer con ferencing as a routine means of communication. and commercial services. such as qcr Mail, are in use as well. Enc .-\mum. data communica tions analvst with International Resource Development Corp. in 'iorwalk, Conn .. said that as more and more computers are iinked together, "the process of placing an order and. possiblv. even requests for bids 1nd proposals will be done b computer. The screen can become 1Il invoice and the tab \, way of skipping from part ,m ber to price to quantitY "\Vide band services ne in creased capacity] prohar<' ., 111 L' J Continued 01, page ~6 What Will our workplace be like in the year 2000? Continued from page 42 l.J appear in the early '90s and will include stereo quality for voice or music," Czaplewski said. "This can be utilized through multiple speaken in a confer ence room, for example. Or you might want to transmit full motion video, or a catalogue. ""{ith a CRT and wideband services, you'll be able to access multiple databases and view ca talogues and files, inventory lists and products." Adding to the capability of ISDN network switching will be fiber optic transmissions, which allow more data to be sent quicker, enabling full motion video to be sent over the phone lines. "That enormous band width will serve as a stimulant to new applications and new ideas," Knight said. He pointed to the likelihood of increased voice and dat~ applications in the 1990s "and by 2000, I think there will be widespread video applications. There are already products out that will bring video capabil ity ri~ht to the desk. Today, there isn't much of a demand as costs are high and no one knows what to do with it But that can change. "Let's say, for example, a company's corporate headquarters was in Oak Brook and their as sembly plant was in Elk Grove Village. An engineer could show a foreman how to fix a broken part by video." Video is already playing an in creasingly vital role in offices today, particularly in training and sales applications. The interactive video disk. when combined with a comput er, allows random access of information, rather than the se quential presentation of a videotape. Presentations combining audio with visual images provide better understanding and retention of information than written words or still pictures, said Jim Lipka, president of Creative Marketing Communications in Des Plaines, which produces video programs for businesses. The flexibility of video delivery technology in the future will mean that delivery of information can be targeted to a specific office worker's needs. "Let's say a worker is working on a computer and wants to know about a particular govern ment program," Lipka said. "He enters a request into his system, which asks him if he wants the two-minute version or the five minute, more-comprehensive re port. When he's done with the ,ideo presentation, he can return to his work. "Of course," he added. "while delivery systems are evolving, one thing that is not going to change is the necessity of good production values. The quality of a video presentation, for ex---. ample, .,iJJ always have a maJor effect on the impact and value the presentation has to the user.'' One result of electronic linkages is that many people will be working at home or on the road. -\s. Scott Foote, of the World Future Society in Bethes da, Md., whimsically puts it, get: ting to the job might be a matter of "rolling over and checking your electronic mail." [The soci ety is planning a conference on "Crisis Management and Conflict Resolution" this summer in :slew Yark City that wiJJ deal with, among other subjects, telecommuting.] Foote and other futurists agree, though, that despite such flexibility it is unlikely that the office will disappear, no matter how many people are working at home. Corinne KuypersDenlinger, vice president and ed i tor-in-chief at the Naisbitt Group, for example, said that "there 'will be more need to get together to talk. more need for things like staff meetrngs and quality circles, and other face-to face meetings to provide the high-touch balance." So what will the office itself be like? The key word in office design in 2000 is likely to be "flexibili ty," say major office furniture firms. Peter F. Jeff of Steelcase said that office design is changing primarily in support of the com puter. ".-\s terminals are getting smaller and entry and access to those terminals will involve more voice entry, it could be that in the future we'll be talking to the wall .... he said. Jeff said that, today, an indi vidual work station might in volve as much as 60 feet of wiring. _"Cable management is a major task of future office de sign."

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c1111m rc.1rm W\I f;/\lEllP~lip !":II"!. 10? ,,,,._ MAY )~ I 9~f; Bu~~El.l.'S t .,.''s}.r. ~, ... ~~~"""'':t "'"' .... POLLUTION ----. ----------------------Acid rain legislation may create jobs, clean air group says I \ Skip Johnson ';IINfl/\Y GA7Hlf-M/\IL nob Rose. a spokesman for thf Chan Air Coalition, said last wcek that although lhc real impact of add rain lrgislation on coal min ing jobs won't be known until leg islat.ion is implemented, "we beli<'ve to a l;irgP degrre, state or frderal govrrnmcnt action can mitigate I.he jobs impact. Overall, w" think il will create jobs." Hose said CAC favors clean <'oal burning t<'chnology, which is the alternative to acid rain legis lation being pusher! by Sen. Robert C.Byrd, 0-W.Va., but doesn't con sider it a substitute for legislation. "We -lll'li!'ve mandatory legisla tion is also meded," he said. "If you didn't have lo pay your taxi's by a ferlain hmr. would you l'Vn pay tll('m''"' Bvrrl rf>cent lv ,ontcn,Jr>d (hr ari,i rain hill rl"W in Congress wouh:I co~I "/,500 cmI mining jobs in West Virginia. (,ov. Arch Mm,re also opposes lh!'.' kgislation hi,cause of its johs impact. Hose said CAC favors the Wax m:m approach to acid rain legislation, proposed by Rep. Henry Waxman, D-CaliL, which would impose a national tax on fossil ftt<'l power production to pay for srrubbers. The Waxman approach a !so calls for a moderate federal subsidy to help pay for the cost of ,onlrol equipment. Rose said CAC favors expanding the eligibility nquirements for the subsidy. Rose believes some form of acid rain legislation is inevitable. II<' called it "a runaway train on the congressional track." ,John McCormick, a Washington lawyer and former lobbyist for the "Environmental Policy Insti tute, favors federal h<'lp lo indus tdrs that would br f<'Ollirrd to in-sta II scrubbers if acid rain legisla tion passl'.'S. "In my view, not enough consid eration is being given to the need to help subsidize capital expenditures," he said. "The cost of sC'rubbl'rs is exorbitantly high, and even if coal burners are allowed to choose the most cost-effective means, it's still going to be puni tive to somebody." low-sulfur coal. Thal would also pose economic threats to the U.S. coal industry, he said, because of competition from lowcr-Nlst for eign coal, such as from Colombia. McCormick said clean coal technology is a prudent approach to the problem of I educing sulfur emissions, but, like Rose, he also favors mandatory legislation. "The $400 million presently in the Acid rain legislation poses an economic threat if we're not cautious about the cost to the electric customer, particularly the industrial customer. It could affect his profit margin to the extent he might cut back or even move out of the state. lie suggested the possibility of a tax on electricity, gasoline or to bacco to go into a trust fund to help pay for pollution control equipment. "Acid rain legislation poses an economic threat if we're not cau tious about thP cost to the electric customer," he said. "particularly the industrial customer. It could affect his profit margin to the ex tent he might cut back or even mov<' out of the state." Under frcc-m,irket choice legis lation, which would allow gover nors of states to select the least expensive way for coal-burning plants to reduce sulfur emissions, McCormick said one of the ob vious opt.ions would he to turn to John McCormick clean coal technology program would finanee testing of only a few projects," he said, "and even if developed, nobody would have to buy the technology, so you would have to mandate its use." McCormick favors a reduction in sulfur and other emissions that make up the acid rain mix. "I be lieve acid deposition must be re duced to a level where the envi ronment can absorb it," he said. Bob Friedman of the Qf!kLJ.L _.l'echnoloa,.!ssesiuuent an arm of Congress said studies of the job impac:t of acid rain legislation have not been done since 1984, when the OTA estimated a job loss of from 10,000 to 30.000. "I don't think the present legis lation would be much different than what we studied in 1984,'' Friedman said, "but I hesitate to say for sure." He said the 10,000-30,000 figure was under the scenario of a free market choice, rather than man dating the use of scrubbers. These losses were forecast to ocC'ur in the high-sulfur coalfields, he said, but were based on 1978 employ ment figures and don't necessarily reflect the 1986 situation. Friedman said the jobs loss is "not strictly a net figure in that we computed just losses in the high-sulfur coal fields. No track was made of possible jobs gained in the low-sulfur field~. if fuel switching occurs.'' The 1986 acid rain legislation was introduced April 10 by Reps. Tom Tauke, R-Iowa, and Sher wood Boehlert, R-N.Y., and has over 120 co-sponsors in the House, including a majority of the Health and Environment Subcommittee that is considering it. A similar bill failed in the same subcommit tee by a one-vote margin in 1984. ln general, conservationists favor the legislation. March;rnt Went.worth of the Izaak Wanon League called the bill "a legisla tive breakthrough that achieves the emissions reductions neces sary to protect the environment." He predicted the Health and Environment Subcommittee, which is chaired by Waxman, would pass the bill out this time. H.R. 4567 would reduce sulfur emissions by 10 million tons and nitrogen emissions by 4 million tons over a to-year period. In the first phase of reductions, electric utiiities would be required to re duce sulfur emissions by 5 million tons by 1993. By the end of the ~ond phase in 1997, other non utility sources would be required to reduce sulfur emissions by an additional 5 million tons. Tighter emissions controls for cars and trucks would yield reduc tions in nitrogen oxide emissions. The revenues from a special fee on generated electricit)' would be used to pay the interest on loans and bonds used to buy pollution control equipment and keep rate increases below 1 O percent. Action on acid rain legislation was given impetus on March 19 when President Reagan and Cana dian Prime Minister Brian Mulro ney endorsed a report on acid rain. The report declared that acid rain is a serious problem in both Canada and the U.S. and re commended a $5 billion, 5-year program to create new technolo gies to burn coal cleanly The Reagan endorsement marked the first time his adminis tration has acknowledged that acid rain is a problem. Another acid rain scenario cur rently in Congress is one authored by Sen. Robert Stafford, R-Vt.. who has introduced amendments to the Clean Air Act that would l'.'urtail the operating times for dirty utility plants. Cleaner plants would be allowed to operate indef initely. Stafford's bill would also tight -en cotthi;ls or; rnebHe ~our<-es of pollution such as cars and trucks.

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1llE SACRAMENTO BEE SACRAMENTO, CALIF.. o_. :,m,41Q SUN.,, 255,691 MAR 18 1986 !l!!!!llJ..J:D Senators unleash thunder (or legislation on acid rain B;J.M. Johnson lJ-171/ 9ee:wasblngtoo Bureau :WASHINGTON -Aiming to in tensify the political pressure on Pi:esident Reagan during his summit With Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, congressional leaders an nounced plans Monday to introduce sweeping acid rain legislation. "We refuse to ignore the evidence that acid rain is killing our fish, dam aging our waters and threatening our forests," said Sen. George Mitch ell, D-Maine, who joined with a bip~rtisan grou-p of senators urging tight controls on auto and power plant emissions. "The time to act is now, not at some vague future date." -Reagan is set to begin talks today wtth Mulroney, and acid rain, a ma jOF domestic problem for the prime mlnister, will be a central focus of the discussions. Acid rain is defined aiprecipitation tainted by oxides of nitrogen and sulfur, which environ mentalists link to emissions from automobiles and Industry. The Canadians say wind-blown pollution in: the United States is endangering their lakes and streams. The new legislation, expected to be introduced today, differs from past bills in that it would aim its cleanup efforts not only at Midwestern, "Rust Belt" i.ndustries. New cars, for instance, would be required to match the smog-control performance of the 25 lowest-emission Jehicles now being produced. Automobile emissions also have been implicated in California's growing acid rain problems. Heavily acidic precipitation has been measured in the Los Angeles basin. There is no estimate available on how much the bill would add to the price of cars, but theawce at TechnQlogy Assess111.e_n.t estimates the controls on sulphur oxide emissions of power plants would cost $6 billion a year over the next few years. The expense of effective acid rain controls has been blamed for the failure of Congress to pass similar bills in the past two sessions of Congress. Even though the new legislation is more ambitious than the bills that failed, the legislators drew hope Monday that it will pass from sever al recent developments. First, the prestigious National Academy of Sciences released a report last week that found a "causal relationship" between sulfur emis sions from the burning of fossil fuels and increasing acidity in U.S. lakes and streams. Secondly, the issue has grown into a major point of contention between the United States and Canada. Mulroney's popularity at home to an extent depends upon his ability to influ ence Reagan on the acid rain question. Administration officials say Reagan is prepared to express quali fied support for a five-year, $5 billion government and industry pro gram to combat acid rain. But the legislators Monday said that is not enough. Rhode Island Sen. John Chafee. a Republican, noted that recent stud ies indicated that "four out of five of Rhode Island's cleanest waterways are either dying or endangered by acid rain." A letter signed by Sens. John Ker ry, D-Mass., and Patrick Leahy, D Vt., urged Reagan to act now on the acid rain problem, "which threatens the ~nvironmental future of our countries."

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TnE WASH!NGTGN POST 'NASHJNGTDN, DC 0, 179,3'i7 ~IJN "'?1,;:111 1\PR l l l':~ ~/(-'\{t"L.'.'?' HotlSe Acid-Rain Bill Un1veilecl Proposal Reconciles Regional Differences By Cass Peterson Washington Post Stall Writer With the support of, more than one-third of their House colleagues, a bipartisan congressional group yesterday unveiled new legislation to control acid rain by sharply reducing air pollutants from coal-fired boilers and motor vehicles. Sponsors called the proposal a "breakthrough" designed to recon cile conflicting regional interests that have blocked acid-rain !egisla tion for five years. The bill would require deep cuts in industrial emissions, mostly in the Midwest, but it would give states discretion in how to achieve the reductions. It also includes a mechanism designed to cushion the heaviest-hit states from sharp elec tric rate increases. "This is a bill that can pass," said Rep. Henry A. Waxman (D-Calif.), who has unsuccessfully led past ef-forts to enact acid-rain controls. "This is the first step down the road to House action on acid rain." The bill was quickly endorsed by environmental groups, who called it a strong signal of congressional intent to take action against acid rain. "This biil is the legislative break through we've been waiting for," said Leslie Dach of the National Audubon Society. Utility representatives, however, said they would oppose the meas ure. "This bill is going to be more costly than the iast one," said William Megonnell of the Edison Electric Institute. 'Tm sure these cosponsors have no ;dea what's going on in this bill." More than two dozen of its 150 cosponsors appeared at a news conference to endorse the compromise bill, including leading conservative Rep. Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) and Rep. '.\forris K. Udall (D-Ariz.), who in the past has opposed any efforts to shift part of the burden for acidrain controls onto western states. "It's clear there is a relationship between burning fossil fuels and acid rain," Gingrich said. "We do know enough to do some things." "As a westerner," Udall said, 'Tm here to repent." Like previous proposals, the new bill would require the electric power industry and other users of coal fired boilers to reduce their sulfur emissions by as much as 10 million tons over the next decade. Sulfur emissions are believed to be ,he primary cause of acid rain, which has damaged lakes and aquai:ic life in northeastern states and Canada and is suspected of damaging for ests as well. The bill would also require reduc tions in nitrogen oxide emissions, another potential cause of acid rain, from power plants, cars and trucks. According to a staff analysis by the Office of Technolo '" ,lllt1lJ;. the 1 would cost from $3.8 billion to $4.9 billion a year by the e:irly 1990s, and would raise elec tricity rates an average of 2 to 3 percent.

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STATEN ISLAND ADVANCE STATENISLAND,NY 0, 71,760 SUN. 81,920 APR 23 198b BVMftU'S --/ / '\/ Time to make polluters pay bill for acid Gmv .,/ rain By REP. JAMES IQ.LORIO D I I Ten years ago, ac1i:I rain was a gp.;;n=D;.::1 _______ problem for scientists and theorists. Now there is considerable evidence that acid rain is damaging if not destroying our nation's streams, lakes, rivers, plant life and forests. There is also increasing evt dence that acid rain may be caus ing harm to humans and animals and damaging buildings, bridges, monuments and other structures. Acid rain describes a unique form of pollution in which sulfur dioxide and other pollutants, such as nitrogen oxide, produced in the burning of hjgh sulfur content coal at power plants are carried high into the atmosphere and then returned to earth in rain, snow and fog. The culprits responsible for acid rain are Midwestern states where utilities bum high sulfur content coal to produce electricity. The victims of acid rain are the Eastern states and Canada, which lie in the path of air currents blowing this pollution from the west. Recent studies have now found that millions of acres of forest and wilderness in the West are being threatened by increasing levels of acid rain. I The Congressional~~~~ Technol Assessment re-port percen o the lakes and 21 percent of the stream miles in the eastern United States ;' have been altered some irrevo, cable and that another 37 percent of Jakes and 21 percent of streams are at risk of permanent change. At stake are 9,000 lakes and 50,000 miles of streams. The prestigious National Academy of Sciences reported in 1981 that the number of acidified lakes would double by 1990 unless there was a "prompt tightening of re strictions on emissions from power plants and other large seurces" of acid rain pollution. A National Wildlife Federation study found that central and northern Pennsylvania receive the most acidic rainfall of any large area of the country with an average summer rainfall that is 63 times as acidic as unpolluted areas. The study said that the Pennsylvania Forestry Associa tion on Sept. 19. 1978, recorded precipitation near the Allegheny National Forest, McKean County, that was almost 2,000 times more acidic as unpolluted rain. The N4tional Wildlife Federation study, which was released in Aoril 1984, also found that acid rain was a threat in Florida where acidity levels have increased markedly in the northern two thirds of the state, and in North Carolina, where increased acid rainfall has been found in the Great Smoky Mountain National Park. As a member of the House Subcommittee on Health and Envi ronment. which has jurisdiction over acid rain issues, I have followed closely for several years the efforts to develop and finance a national acid rain control pro gram. And I have watched for a number of years as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has been content simply to research the problem without putting forth any solutions. When William Ruckelshaus be came EPA administrator for the second time in 1983, he announced that combatting acid rain would be his top regulatory priority. However, despite all of the mounting evidence that acid rain poses a severe environmental threat, the EPA has repeatedly stated that more study is needed. A federal court judge last year ordered the EPA to require seven Midwestern states to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide and other pollutants tbat cause acid rain. Unfortunately, the order, which was issued in late July, was appealed in September by the U.S. Justice Department for the EPA, which opposes taking the actiOI!, Drew Lewis, appointed as a presidential envoy to work with Canada to deal with acid rain, recently recommended five years of study to develop new technologies to solve the problem. While the goal is worth pursuing, many technologies already exist to reduce acid rain. We have passed the point of endlessly studying the problem without taking any ac tion. The Coalition of Northeastern governors has proposed a "na tional clean-energy tax" that would be paid by all utility cus tomers to fund the reduction of acid rain. The tax, based on the amount of electricity used, would establish a revolving loan fund to provide interest-free Joans to utilities to finance methods to reduce the amount of sulfur dioxide and other pollutants emitted at power plants. The solution to the severe environmental problem of acid rain does not lie with a "national clean-energy tax." First, there is no reason why consumers in the West and the East, particularly in the North east, who already pay excessively high utility bills. should be bur dened with even higher bills through this surcharge to provide free loans for corporations that are polluting our environment. When an individual obtains a loan at the local bank, the money comes with an interest rate. Under the proposed plan. big corporations would get "free money" to solve a pr,oblem_ which utilities Rep. James J. Florio It should be noted that Midwestern utilities bum high sulfur content coal because it is cheaper than coal with less sulfur. And, these same utilities have refused to spend the money to install pol-1 ution control devices to reduce the sulfur dioxide pouring out of their smokestacks, The major problem with the Northeast governor's coalition proposal is that it violates the basic environmental principle of: ''Make the polluter pay." For the past two Congresses, I have co-sponsored a proposal by Reps. Morris Udall, D-!iriz., and Dick Cheney, R-Wyo., that makes the polluters pay. The bill is a sensible cost-effective approach to the acid rain problem. It sets a goal of reducing sulfur dioxide emissions gradually by 10 million tons by 1996 in Midwestern and Eastern states. If a state fails to devise the plan to meet its goal, the major utilities would be required to draw up the plan t0 reduce emissions. Under the Udall-Cheney plan, states and their utilities would have the right to choose the least costly way of meeting their goals. The bill offers utilities flexibility by allowing them to choose the most efficient method of emission reduction on a case-by-case basis. Given this flexibility, I believe that utilities and other industries would be able to attain emission control without transferring an undue f'{'Onomk hurden onto the The Udall-Cheney proposal, by embracing the principle of making the polluter pay, would ensure that the cost of reducing sulfur dioxide is distributed fairly among those responsible for acid rain. Many states have already in vested heavily in air pollution controls. With the exception of nine states, including Ohio, Illinois and Indiana, the other 18 states east of the Mississippi River have successfully reJuced sulfur dioxide emissions and are in compliance with targetted air pollution reductions. These costly investments to reduce emissions are reflected in our high utility rates. A national tax to combat acid rain would penalize utility customers by making us pay a second time while giving polluters a break they haven't earned and don't de serve. But it is important to realize that utility customers in Midwestern states would not have to shoulder the entire financial burden of cleaning up their utilities. For example, New Jersey imports 39 percent of its electricity from polluter states. As a result, ratepayers in my state would share some of the burden as the cost of out-of-state electricitv increases to cover the expenses of installing pollution control devices at Midwestern utilities. Another aspect of the Udall Cheney proposal is that it would create new jobs in the low sulfur eastern and western mining in dustrv. It is estimated that 21 coal producing states both East and West would gain an estimated 138.000 jobs by 1995. At the same time. the proposal would save consumers $20 billion in capital costs over the next 10 vears. according to an !CF Inc. February 1984 analysis. There will be a price to pay for sweetening our nations acid rain. But rather than accept continued inaction by tile EPA or a national energy tax that unfairly burdens the victim, we should support the rational solution of the Udall-Cheney proposal lhat tackles the threat of acid rain while making the polluter pay. (The author is a member of the House of Representatives. from the ls_t Congressional district !n

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PORTLAND, OR OREGONIAN D, 290,228 SUN. :197.485 MAY 71 1986 ~~ELi.f.S i-'~ i Bill to cleanse acid rain clears ijouse subpanel WASHINGTONL(fp) _1 Major acid proposed air quality requirements rain legislation was approved Tuesday would add 2 percent to 3 percent to the night by a House subcommittee after utility bill of the average household. 1 .. the bill's supporters outlasted a week That increase would include a pro, of slowdown tactics by outnumbered posed fee of mill per kilowatt hour opponents from the industrial heartor one cent per 20 kilowatt hours land. that would be assessed to all electricity By a vote of 16-9, the Energy and bills to finance an estimated $8 billion Commerce health subcommittee sent fund to be administered by the the measure, which is sponsored by Environmental Protection Agency. 160 of the 435 House members, to the The fund would be used to provide full committee, headed by arch foe subsidies to prevent more than IO per John Dingell, D-Mich. cent increases in residential electricity Two years ago, a similar clean-air bills in states facing the biggest costs measure was defeated 10-9 in the sub-of complying with the pollution reduc committee, which has become the first tion plan. House panel even to vote to launch a Sikorski quoted the congressional nationwide attack on acid rain. ,Oifjj;;~ o,U~<..,hnology Assessment as The bill would mandate by 1997 saying Kentucky, West Virginia and that the nation reduce its emissions of Indiana could face electricity bills sulfur dioxide by from 9 million to 10 increasing more than 10 percent million tons a year. That is about up to because of the plan. -tO percent of what is now produced by The fund would be used to limit coal-fired boilers operated by industry the increases to 10 percent. and to a larger extent by electric utiliSikorski said Georgia and Ohio ties. were on the borderline and could face Sulfur dioxide is one of the chemiincreases which would qualify them cals that scientists say helps produce for subsidies from the fund. acid precipitation which some experts The bill approved by the subcom believe harms humans, forests and mittee in a nine-hour session Tuesday waterways. Most environmental dam-was only slightly modified from the age attributed to acid rain has occurred measure it began considering May 13. in the Northeast, with Midwestern To keep some of the bill's shaky sources cited as the culprit. supporters in line, amendments were The bill also would go after another approved to give the EPA arid states acid rain precursor nitrogen oxides more flexibility in administering the that are produced mostly by vehiplan and to provide added incentive for cles and stationary gasoline engines. states to turn to clean-burning coal Rep. Gerry Sikorski, DMinn., esti technology to produce reductions in mated the cost of complying with the harmful emissions. __J

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WASHINGTON REPORT By Peggy Eastman Changing the rules on physician reimbursement F cc-for-service reimbursement under Medicare has taken another major knock. A comprehensive, congressionally mandated study on payment for physician services has conduded that Medicare's customary, prevailing, and reasonable payment system-which has had no fundamental change since 1972-is "inherently inflationary.' The 273-page study, done by the congressional Office of Technology Assessment and released by House and Senate committees, suggests alternative payment strategics for Congress to consider as it explores physician reimbursement under Part B. The report was released at the end of February when, in 1he words of Sen. David Durenberger, R-Minn., Congress raced "the continuation of arbitrary cuts to Medicare by the budget rowdies who have forgotten that freezes and mindless reductions in fees will hurt beneficiaries as well as physicians and hospitals'.' Since 1978, the researchers found, Medicare per capita ex penditures on physician services have climbed more rapidly than overall expenditures for doctors' services. During the 1980s, the Medicare tab for physician services rose an average of 16 percent annually, reaching an estimated $19 billion in fiscal year 1985. I ndced, Medicare's Part B program was round to be the fourth largest domestic program in the federal budget, following Social Security, Medicare Part A, and Medicaid. Predictably, the Office of Technology Assessment found l"I II \l: 11 H lR, p.1,1 p1l,1dl'nt 111 t!ll nw.l \tl;mli\ 1 .'l\;1p1,.:1 ,,1 I !1<: -\mtt i\;m \kdi1..1l \\'111L~ .\..,..,0~;1-l ll1n. ,, \\';1,hin~hlll hlitPr ,11'('\Rl>l(ll(}(;, \\'()I.U I) Nrw~. 30 MAI ''l<'it, ( A/ii i1( :1 ( 11 ,1 VJ( i111 '' ~Jf w:; wide variations across the country in physicians' willingness to accept Medicare assignment as payment in full-from 17 percent in South Dakota to 87 percent in Rhode Island. Nationally, assignment rates have been escalating since 1976, reaching 67 percent of all charges in fiscal year 1985, the first year of the participating physician program. Also predictably, the researchers found higher payment rates for specialists than for non-specialists and higher reim bursement rates for procedural services-such as electrocar diograms and surgery-than for counseling and the taking of medical histories. Since the elderly population's share of certain surgical and diagnostic services is high, the assessors concluded that there is a financial incentive under the cur rent Medicare system for doctors to "favor and perhaps overuse the more generously reimbursed services'.' This often repeated charge is considered the major reason why Congress will probably not retain the current physician reimbursement method under Medicare Part B in the long run. Looking only to when inpatient cardiovascular procedures arc considered, it is clear that the elderly as a group make up a high proportion of treated patients. For example, 79 per cent of pacemaker implants are performed in those over 65; 38 percent of arteriography and angiocardiography is provid ed to the elderly, as is 35 percent of cardiac bypass surgery and 32 percent of open heart surgery. Rep. John Dingell, D-Mich., chairman of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, said of the report: "Physi cian decisions control more than 80 percent of medical ex penditures. No one would doubt that physicians are inf!u-

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enced in what they do by how they are paid. This report should help steer the Congress in the right direction!' The assessors concluded that instead of leaving the current system in place, four alternative payment strategies should be considered by Congress for the Medicare Part B program: modification of the present system payment based on fee schedules payment for interrelated "packages" of services capitation payment-a fixed payment rate for a beneficiary for a specific time period. Durenberger, who chairs the Subcommittee on Health of the Senate Committee on Finance, predicts that, of these four alternatives, the Medicare program will eventually head toward capitation as the main form of coverage for the na tion's elderly. "But in the interim, refinements in the tradi tional fee-for-service payments to physicians should be made:' he counsels. According to the Office of Technology Assessment, modification of the current system could include using alter native payment systems in specified situations, such as capita tion payment for Medicare beneficiaries who opt for a health. maintenance organization. Also, the method of calculating reasonable rates would almost certainly change, with limits in rates being set to control Medicare inflation. The Medicare program could contract with preferred provider organizations to give medical services at discounted rates, and the percen tile of prevailing charges used to determine allowable charges could be lowered. Fee schedules for medical services could be set in advance of the time period in which they were to apply, with charges based on those in previous years. Payment for "packages" of services could range from considering one ambulatory-care visit a "package" of related services to including all caredirect and ancillary-for one episode of illness as a package of related services. In the latter case, the same codes used in the DRG hospital reimbursement system could be applied to "physician DRGs'' for billing Medicare for inpatient service, and a lump sum reimbursement could be paid to the physi cian. The goal of packaging services would be to give the physician incentives "for the more judicious use of resources:' in the assessors' words. Use of a capitation payment method would parallel that now used by HMOs, notes the report, with possible adjustments for regional variation in cost of care. Medicare payment by capitation would not necessarily mean that the physician would get the capitation payment, however. If the carrier for the program received the capitation sum-rather than the doctor treating the patient under Part B-that carrier could still reimburse physicians by fee-for-service or some other method. Whatever method Congress eventually chooses for reim bursing physicians under Part B, it appears that the existing fee-for-service system will not emerge intact. Nor is an in definite freeze on payment for physician services considered the answer. "The freeze is not a permanent solution: says Rep. Henry Waxman, D-Calif., chairman of the House Sub committee on Health and the Environment of the Commit tee on Energy and Commerce. "At best, it is a stop-gap measure to give us time to devise a satisfactory solution'.' He forecasts that the current study "will be featured prominently m future hearings on physician payment reform!' \ \ ::::-:. \ \ .. -.., -:, .. ..

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Where to Bury It? EVERYBODY KNOWS that three decades' accumulation of radioactive waste is being stored, temporarily, in pools at the reactors that produced it. Everybody knows that it would be much safer to store the stuff in sealed canisters buried deep underground. But none of it has been buried yet, because the country hasn't been able to make up its mind where to put it. Several years ago Congress passed legislation that, by a slow and cautious process,. would force a decision. This week President Reagan took a first gingerly step when he identified three possible sites. Nothing will happen quickly. The three states chosen-Texas, Washington and Nevada-will undoubtedly attempt, in court and in Congress, to block further action. Meanwhile the Energy Department, having already done a good deal of drilling and testing at these sites, will now sink mine shafts and begin opening caverns to allow geologists to inspect the rock directly. That will take five years. If all goes well, Mr. Reagan's successor will make a final choice and, in 1998, burial of the waste will begin. When Mr. Reagan narrowed the choices to the three western sites, the administration also an nowiced that it was def erring the search for a site in the East. That's an important decision, and probably a mistake. The law specifies that there are to be two. The administration argues that the first site will not be filled until well into the next century, and the search for a second can be deferred until the 1990s. But one reason for developing a second site is to have the assurance of an alternative if the technicians run into trouble at the first. The congressional Qffic~ of Technolo2Y Assessment made that point in its study last year of radioactive waste disposal. But the administration has decided that the political costs of a second site outweigh the benefits of a fall-back. All of the incentives in waste disposal are weighted toward procrastmation. And since the East enjoys the benefits of nuclear power, should not the East accept some of the responsibility for nuclear waste disposal-particularly since it can be managed with negligible risk to public health? The answer to that question is usually a denunciation of nuclear power in general. But the alternative to nuclear power is coal. While nuclear waste can be safely buried, the wastes from coal combustion are pwnped into the air that you breathe. Some are highly toxic and, while technology can reduce them, it can't eliminate them from coal smoke. The prevailing view seems to be that coal is safe but nuclear power is bad for your health. The past several decades' experience suggests that pre cisely the opposite is true.

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GOVERNMENT COMPUTER NEWS SILVER SPRING~ MD MONTHLY 97.1110 APR 11 1986 learn' about shortand long-range work trends. the benefits of technological training and the effects of such training on their -careers. In t.oday's market, retraining workers is a major'goal of-government and industry ex ecutives, who are concerned that the avail able pool of labor will not satisfy their needs for skills. As the labor force ages, fewer younger people with recently learned &kills will be available, so employers must turn to existing workers. Cbapt.er 10, Workplace Technology and the Employment of Older Adults, offers in t.eresting information from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on the status of current workers. Thirty percent of managers and administrators are over 45. and by 1995 the proportion of whit.e-collar worken is ex-' pected to be 52 percent close to today's level. Anyone thinking of becoming a postal clerk may be surprised t.o learn postal clerks are likely to be less in demand along with postmast.ers and mail superint.endents. i Other jobs threat.ened by t.echnology are j stenography, typesetting and composition. : Computer buffs need not worry. Comput: ers and data processing services and R&D 1 laboratories are expected to show some of the largest annual rat.es of increase: 5.2 and 3.9 percent. respectively. Paperless offices A

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--BUSINESS AND HEALTH WASHINGTQ.N.t DC MONTHLY 8to'00 APR 1986 &rretf1 ~~,q,')t' Work Place l{azards ... Uncertainties abouf ttie cause and effect of work place hazards to male and female re productive systems complicate em ployer efforts to ensure a safe worksite, according to a recent report by the congressional Office of Technolo_gy_ Assessment (OT Ak Designated as a significant health problem in the U.S., unintentional infertility affects more than 8 percent of couples of child bearing age. In addition, 7 percent of all infants in the U.S. are diagnosed as having various congenital malfor mations. OTA recognizes, however, that reproductive impairment is difficult to measure, and that the study of re productive hazards in the work place linking toxic agents to such problems is inconclusive. Further complicating the study, says OT A, are incomplete data on toxic agents and their affects, as well as variations in worker sus ceptability. Only four agents are regulated because of known harmful effects on adult reproductive capacity or embryo and fetal development: ion izing radiation; lead; ethylene oxide; and dibromochloropropane. According to OT A, other factors causing repro ductive impairment in varying degrees are physical factors such as noise and vibration, infectious agents, overex ertion, stress and alcohol and tobacco use. OT A asserts that employers can reduce reproductive hazards by em ploying engineering and exposure con trols, education programs and personal protective equipment. In addition to encouraging employers to consider employee protection, OT A suggests that Congress require employers to al low their workers to take a temporary paid leave of absence after experiencing occupational health hazards and that federal or state law add provisions to worker compensation to cover reproductive health or amend existing laws to provide employees the right to pursue tort remedies for uncompensated in juries. OT A also suggests that regu latory agencies be instructed to assume that an exposure is dangerous, even if BUSINESS AND HEALTH only a few studies show that this is so. It calls for an amendment to the Occupational Safety and Health Act (OSHA) to allow employees to take action against employers who may be violating regulations. Copies of "Re productive Health Hazards in the Workplace," (Pub. No. 052-00301001-1) are available for $15 from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Wash. ington, D.C. 20402. --

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WALL STREET JOURNAL BRUSSELS, BELGIUM European Edition DAILY CIRC. NOT AV~IL, AP~ 4 1986 Hzr:rr -Job Safety and Health Conditions Appear To Worsen After 4 Years of Improvement By Y.. Sn.usoN illnesses that don't become evident for conviction of company officials last year in s1a//Ral'Or'l
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UASTE AGE UASHIHGTOH, DC ttONTHLV 29200 APR/01./1.SBG BVRJK4'S ,:.;;>' / New Profits in Auto. Recycling? (from an articl~Wi~ Engineering magazine's September issue) In 1985, the projected production of 9.2 million auto mobiles is expected to require about 16 million tons of material. The recycling of these newer models will probably be more troublesome and less profitable than it was for their heavier predecessors. The reasons: the reduction in the quantity of recoverable ferrous scrap and the expanding use of plastics, which cannot be economically recovered with present technology. Materials substitution, coupled with downsizing, has reduced the average amount of ferrous scrap obtain able from the automobile hulk by one-third in the period between the 1977 and 1985 model years .... Although the metals traditionally recovered from scrapped autos may pose a gloomy outlook for recy clers, renewed interest in strategic metals might pick up the slack. In the case of junked cars, this would involve recla mation of chromium and the platinum-group metals. Current estimates suggest that only 30% to 40% of the chromium in cars is being recovered. Catalytic con verte:ra-ruone would yield from 5,000 to 7,000 metric / tons of chromium per year, according to a recent report from the Congressional Office of 'Feclmology Assessment. The report also said that about 115,000 troy ounces of platinum metal were recovered from catalytic conI verters in 1982, with estimates of 500,000 ounces being recovered by 1995. ./\ --_! TECHNOLOGY UPDATE CLEIJEL~NO, OH WE:EKLV APR/07,/lSBG Bl({i'R4U;.f ,'-h~1-{I'he US would be alm t 100 stlitegic metals hr os % dependent on imports of the c OJDJum, cobalt mangan d th gro~p if it were not for recyclin~ acco d. ese anWWe platinum senior analyst, the US Con r tng to Fletcher, ,Assessment speakin gress .Q!fice of Tec1!i:ic;,Iogy of .R~yclinTindust~~t i~~~ual c~nventton onli~atl Assn approaches for reduc nge -~ CA. He said technical of strategic metals 1:! U~:abt~~Y to sup~ly distribution commitment to tecbnol: d ut its essential to have a economic and institutional r evelopme~t ~d to reducing the tecbnolooies Some 60= amfethrs thhrat mi~ht impede the use of ... ,o O e c ommm us d tain1 steel could be conserved throu h e in s ess already availabl th g use of substitutes that are research proa .... .: :dvanactedcould developed with a 10..yr al .... ~. ceramics and compo t so may displace strategic material s1 e matenals the long term. The incr s in .some uses, especially in end products and th easmg complexity of materials used in specifications mean t:a~~~:~"'.ard m~r~ st ringent materials : 0~~;:l~ng is to keep up;: t~e; c~~;~:~~!1!nt y Am Mtl Mkt 03/19/86 p6 Ai3GJ

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TV CLIPS DATE TIME STATION LOCATION PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAO LIVINGSTON NEW JERSEY 07039 (201) 992-6600 1800) 631-1160 April 4, 1986 5!00-6:00 PM KMGH-TV(CBS) Channel Seven Denver Seven News Bertha Lynn. anchor: ACCOUNT NUMBER NIELSEN AUDIENCE 10/6297 Y 60,000 A six-year battle rages on in eastern Adams County tonight--on on side, a company that wants to build a hazardous-waste dump; on the other side, the residents who oppose that site. But in part three of "Backyard Time Bomb," Andrea Joyce reports the real enemy in this war is the hazardous waste itself. Joyce: LeRoy and Pam Weldon are fourth-generation Colorado farmers. Their fivethousand-acre ranch in eastern Colorado is their heritage, and it represents the future as well as the past--a future the Weldon's feel is threatened by Browning Ferris Industries' proposal to locate a hazardous-waste dump just three miles from their front door. Pam: Seeing that--the baby animals born and grow up--and you know that nature has to be in balance, that things aren't going to be right. And if we keep putting poison in the ground, then we're just destroying our very livelihood. Joyce: If Browning Ferris is successful in its bid, their Last Chance dump would be the first new dump in the country to get a permit since 1980. State officials say Colorado needs such a facility. Leonard Slosky {Environmental advisor): Colorado's not going to be viable economically to businesses if they have to ship their waste hundreds or a thousand miles to get it treated. (Joyce goes on to say that the amount of hazardous waste needs to be reduced, and talks about Wastec, alternatives to dumping costs, and so forth.) Joyce: More than twenty percent of our toxic waste is stored in tanks or injected in deep wells. Fifty-five percent is managed through surface impound ment, even though more and more of those impoundments are found to be leaking everyday. Joel Hirschhorn (Office of Technologv Assessment): It's been called the toxic waste merry-go-round. A lot of Superfund cleanups mean taking the waste from one hole in the ground which we know its leaking and putting it into another hole in the ground, which inevitably will also leak. Video c:aesettes are available in any format for a period of four weeks from air date from our affiliate: VTOF.O MONITORING SERVICES OF A..\.iEB.ICA, INC. (212)736-2010 --

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TV CLIPS 75 EAST NOATHFiELO AOAO LIVINGSTON NEW JEASEY 07039 ,2011992-6600 (800) 631-1160 Joyce: Statements like that inspire the Weldons to continue their battle against the Last Chance dump, and to push for use of new disposal technologies. Their battle has spread beyond their own land. It's a battle now for America's backyard. Pam: I don't want it buried in the ground here. I don't want it buried in the ground in Denver, or anywhere else. Until everyone can think that way, it'll continue. Joyce: Near Last Chance, Colorado, Andrea Joyce, Seven News. 420 WORDS 35 CLIPS ,.

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TtiE TAMPA TRi6UNE TAMPA, FL D. 200,732 SUN. 265,405 JUN 9 1986 BUR1f.EU.E'S [. Get Going on Superf und c ro~rnj -::-:!TORll~t C ongress' Superfund paralysis has remedied. Now. More than half the nabecome a joke, a sick one at that. tion (including most of Florida) de For there is nothing funny about lawpends on groundwater for drinking makers unable to deal with toxic water. Keeping that water free of waste's threat to our drinking water. chemical contamination is serious, and Congress established Superfund in urgent, business. 1980 to remove chemical wastes from Some responsible compromises dumps that endangered groundwater would end this interminable toxic de-or residents. The U.S. Environmental bate. The House and Senate have Protection Agency-supervised program agreed on an $8.5 billion Superfund figwas given a $1.6 billion budget, raised ure but are still arguing over how that by a tax on chemical and petroleum money should be raised. The Senate's manufacturers, the primary producers proposed manufacturers' excise tax is of hazardous waste. one of those value-added taxes, un But the environmental program has desirable because it is "hidden" from demonstrated more parody than punch. consumers. The House's bill would conEarly Reagan administration EPA aptinue taxing the chemical and oil induspointees disregarded their Superfund tries. That or at least some kind of chores. And even though capable advisible tax -is preferable. -ministrators finally took charge at The other sticking point is whether EPA. toxic waste cleanup proved to be to have EPA follow rigid standards set so complicated, litigious and costly that by Congress or to give the agency some progress has been snail Slow. Of th e 850 latitude in administering Superfund. dumps listed on the Superfund's National Priorities List (Florida has 40), Recent experience shows that some only six sites have been fully restored. provisions are probably needed to en, Then, with Superfund scheduled to sure that EPA vigilantly enforces the run out last Oct. 1 Congress began its law .. Yet bur~ening the agency with incomedy act. The Senate didn't pass a flex~ble requirements woul~ only h9:mbill until Sept. 26. The House missed the per its efforts. The Congress1ona~ Office deadline and didn't produce a bill until _of Technology Asse1ssI_!!,e_!l.,Lest1mat7s Dec. 10, and its version was considerthere are 10,000 ttfx1c waste dumps m ably different than the Senate's. The need of restoration. The cost of cleanbill has been in conference ever since. lng up those sites may be more than several days ago a Superfund extension $100 billion. EPA must have some flex that Congress had provided itself ibility in confronting such an awesome passed with still no legislation enacted. task. Meanwhile, Superfund work has Some environmentalists may object been cut dramatically. It a 'bill isn't apto that, just as various industrial inter proved by Congress' summer recess, ests will object to other features. So be virtually all cleanup work will stop and it. That half of the nation that is drink EPA will have to lay off 1,500 Superlund Ing groundwater needs the protection employees before year's end. of Superfund. Congress should quit This ridiculous situation must be clowning around and provide it.

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I lill.ADHPHIA INQUIRER l'IIIL 1DHPllfA PA n <;J', c,r 'lN. 1,hnn.130 ~"' H"f nnn iJA"i 11 l h( Bt/f?.~Eli.E"S House acts to protect nation's drinking wateJ-lly Charles G rcen down in Congress. Jnqutrfr W11d111111.in ttu,,.,u, WASIIIN(:"fON -Responding to corwt.rns over groundwotcr contami nntion, the llouse yesterday voted owrwhl'lmingly to strengthen the 1Mllon's main environmental law r:11laling drinking water supplies. I Ii, Scnaoc Is expected to approve the sunw mea,:;ure on overhaul of 1he 1q74 Safe llrinking WBtcr Act -,11H.I i-.;tnd 11 to !he l'rnstdcnt, perhaps a-. ,,uly as this week, for his slgna-1ur1., states to begin taking steps to protect underground sources of drinking water. About bal! the nation's tap water comes from underground form lions, and there has been mounting concern in recent years about chemi cal contamination. A report by the congressional Omce of Technology Assessment estimated that contami nation had occurred In 29 percent of the groundwater drinking supplies of the 954 U.S. cities with populations over 10,000. quired to submit plans to EPA speci fying how Ibey intended to protect groundwater supplies. Details of the leglslatlon were worked out late last month by House and Senate negotiators, and the brief debate over the measure yesterday underscored its backing from Indus try, governmental and environmental groups. The House approved the measure by a 382-21 vote. state lawmakers to the requirement that stales develop groundwater pro tection plans. "This constitutes the beginning of federal jurisdiction and federal con trol over groundwater," charged Rep. Larry E. Craig (R., Idaho). II approved by Congress, the Safe Drinking Water Act revision would be one of the few environmental laws renewed during the Reagan ad ministration. Measures reauthoriz ing the Clean Air Act, Superfund haZBfJous waste cleanup program and Clean Water Act have all bogged One of tbe major provisions bill sets deadlines for EPA to d, standards for 83 specified ch~ There has been criticism thE has been slow to set standar past, with bill sponsors sayir has regulated fewer than 25 c, nants since lhe pa.ssage of ti Drinking Water Act in 1974. J The lead ban in the teg;l I would prohibil the use of le Tlw bill bans the use of lead In drinking-waler syslcms, directs the Environmt~ntal Protection Agency to ,._,;up standards within thn.i.e years lor HJ contaminants, and requires At high levels, chem lea! con ta ml nants have been llnked to central nervous system damage, eye and skin irrilatton, birth defects and cancer. Under the bill, states would be re-"This was an Issue where there was a consensus. Nobody wants to drink. contaminated water." said Robert Percival. an attorney with the Environmental Defense Fund. The only objections raised yesterday were from a few Rocky Mountain iir,r 1':r1,, {Jor!: iTi11,, Ni,'; 1111, 'I y n o llrJ I 1 / JI n MAY 22 1986 !I_Ul'?,_l?Ell~'S Congress Passes Bill on Sa e Drinking Water (. ) ;) '-I By l.lNDA GREENHOUSE Sf-"P("lal lo nu-N~ Vurk 1\m,.,, WASHINGTON, May 21-The Senatp today approved and sent to Presi~ dent Reagan a five-year exte11sion of the Federal law intemhd to assure lhe safety of the nation's d.-inklng water. fhe vote was 94 to 0. The compromise, lhe product of a House.Senale conference con'lmiltee. also expands tht:> scope of lhe law and requires strictt-r enforcement by the Envin.nmenlal Protection A~cncy. Tht' R1al,.!an Administration has ob-jectt'd lo v;, rious provisions of the bill, and an Adn11111stration ~pokesman sald today that a vt>to wa pos<;ible. Bu1 the margins In both the Senale and the House of Representatives, which passedtheblll last week by a voteof382 to 21, would be more than enough to override a veto If Ibey held up. Tile law, the Sale Drinking Water Act, was passed by Congress ln 1974. Since then, environmental groups, members of Congress and the General Accounting Office have crlticlzed the environmental agency as not vigor ously enforcing the law. There are more than 700 known contaminants of drinking water, and the agency has Issued regulations setting maximum acceptable levels for 22. "We tum on the lap and we expect "' the water to be safe," Senator Max Baucus. a Montana Democrat who was a principal sponsor ol the bill, said be fore the vote. "It Is our profound hope that this leglslation will spur the E.P.A. to do what II should be doing." The overwhelming margins In both houses made passage of the bill look routine. But there was considerable controversy surrounding the effort to revamp the Safe Drinking Water Act. A bill died two years ago alter the Senate and House failed to agree. II the bill becomes law, it wlll be only the second ol the ma Jor envlnmmental laws of the 1970's to be renewed under the Reagan Presidency. Two years ago, Mr. Reagan signed a lour-year reauthorization of the Re source Recovery and Conservation Act, which governs the disposal of haz. ardous waste. Extensions of the Clean Water Act, the Clean Air Act and the program to clean up toxic waste dumps are now moving through Congress. Underground Water Pruteetlon The revamped Safe Drinking Water Act sets a SJJ<'ndlng level of $1 N mllllon for the next fiscal year, up from the $91 million that Congress appropriated to carry out the law In this fiscal year. Tile measure approved today was a compromiae between separate bills that passed the House and Senate a year ago. The House version expanded the scope of the law to protect under ground waler supplies, a subject the 1974 law did not address. or olhcr lead fixtures in th, or inslallation of any publi system. Half the population of the Unlted States depends on a supply of uncon taminated underground water. A 1983 study by the of Technol ound conam na on n percent of the underground drinking water supplies of cilles with populations of more than 10,000. The Senate verskln did not include underground water protection, and this became the principle area of contro versy betthe two boua5. 1be confe,._ eventually Included a provision designed to protect underground water In the fi ... l blll, although not to the full extent of the House version. Under the llnal blll, each lltate Is re quired to develop a program to protect areas around the wells of public water systems. The plans are to be oubmltted wllhln three years for approval by the environmental agency, whkh is au lhorlzed by the blll to finance up to
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MOST PRECIOUS RESOURCE Tough LaU! Protects U.S .. -ir: ~ter Supply 0 Theco~h-ast .,:,as :ctarkanddramatic. '.7('0! ~( In the Ukraine, Soviet scientists were scurrying about trying to prevent radiation from the Chernobyl nucleir disaster from contaminating the province's water supply. In Washington, the House of Representatives acted to strengthen the law assuring the purity of U.S. drinking water. Tuesday's House vote was indeed welcome. Water is the most precious of all natural resources far more precious, for example, than the petroleum whose availability and price have so affected Ameri cans' lives in recent years. Water, of course, is essential to human life. But it's also necessary to grow our crops, to sustain our forests and to help produce many manufactured goods. Cowitries with plenty of water are usually those that enjoy the greatest growth. Those where water is scarce -Saudi Arabia, the Australian Outback must overcome this obstacle to progress. Fortunately, our country has been blessed with an abundance of water. And most of it is clean and free of contamination. But this is changing. As industrialization has increased, so has industrial waste. Inevitably, some of this waste has found its way into our groundwater from which about half of Americans get their tap water. A recent report by the congressional Office of Technical Assesslliaent estimated that sOme chemical ci'5ntariiliili.iton occurred in 29 percent of the groundwater drinking supplies of U.S. cities over 10,000 population. It was this mounting concern over contamination that prompted the House to strengthen the nation's primary environmental Jaw regulating drinking water supplies. The House-approved legislation would: 0 Prohibit the use of lead in mWlicipal drinking water systems. Lead is one of the most poisonous of elements. At high levels, it can cause many health problems, including brain damage. 0 Direct the federal Environmental Protection Agency to set standards for 83 chemical contaminants within three years. 0 Require states to take steps to protect their underground water supplies. Each state would have to submit plans to the EPA outlining measures it proposes to take to protect its growidwater against contamination. The bill now goes to the Senate, which is expected to approve it and send it to the president perhaps by the end of .this week. The measure is wise and prudent legislation that's needed to protect a vital resource America's water supply.

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-----------------Growtd Water Ills: Many Diagnoses, Few Remedies Concern about pollution of ground water is growing, but legislative remedies remain elusive F R.OM California to Florida, the na tion's ground water, a vast unseen resource beneath the earth's surface, is far more polluted by a greater number of contaminants than previously believed. The more authorities sample underground water, the more they arc finding toxic cllcmicals, pesticides, and other possibly hazard ous substances. According to growing con sensus among authorities in government. industry, and environmental groups, the ttend indicates a serious environmental problem that merits national attention. But few agree what the regulatory solutions should be. The biggest concern is the ~tential health threat posed by drinking contaminat ed ground water. Half the nation depends on ground water, rather than lakes and rivers, for potable water. According to gov ernment estimates, thousands of wells across the nation have been closed because the concenttations of toxic substances exceed federal safe drinking water limits. With oth-1:,r ground water supplies, where pollutants ogists. Growtd water is the main water supply for drinking and irrigation for 95% of the cowttrV's rural households and one third of the n~tion's 100 largest cities. The federal government estimates that roughly 1 to 2% of the nation's ground water is at least moderately polluted by "point sources" alone, such as leaking landfills or hazardous waste dumps. "Although this may seem small, it is significant because '':7!:~~1 .,,...., -~4, '%, ... ,.~~ :,, -\ ;:_::-. have been detected in trace amounts, the fear is that long-term exposure may evenru-J ally lead to health problems. Although data l on many pesticides are often scant regarding I potential health etfccts from low-level, chronic exposure, many state and federal Marion Mlay of EPA says the current officials take the position that exposure to statutes protect ground water and that no new polluted water should be minimized as a laws are needed. precaution. contamination is often near heavily populatThe contamination of ground water is a ed areas where growtd water is being inparticularly troubling environmental probcrcasingly relied on for a variety of uses," !em because, unlike the pollution of air or says the Reagan Administration's Council lakes, ground water is inaccessible, making on Environmental Quality in its most recent cleanup virrually impossible. Also, purifying annual report,*' which was published in ground water tainted with toxic substances March. Eugene Patten, chief of ground wa-is expensive; in its pristine state, ground ter branch at the U.S. Geological Survey, water can generally be used with little or no says that the extent of the ground water additional treaanent. sucll as chlorination. pollution is even greater if agricultural use of But chlorination only kills bacteria and does chemicals is factored in. not neutralize toxic substances. Estimates of ground water pollution are Americans depend heavily on ground wabased largely on best guesses because there ter for drinking and irrigation. Last year, the has not been systematic monitoring nationnation pumped 100 billion gallons of water wide, but the pollution is believed to be per day from ground water, a 12% increase common because of the wide range of over 1980 figures, according to estimates by sources. In addition to hazardous dumps, the American Institute of Professional Geollagoons, and ponds, and agricultural use of 1490 pesticides and fertilizers, pollution sour include corroding septic tanks, mining acti ities, radioactive waste sites, and the dcici of roads with salts. According to the Offi ofTechnology Assessment (OTA), which 1 1984 published a lengthy report on gro water quality and protection,+ there a gaps in information about potential co tamination of private wells and tew relia figures on the number of hazardous was sites, leaking underground storage t and other polluting sources. But, the OTA report says, "Despite th paucity of quantitative details, sufficient in formation is available to justifv nation action to protect ground water quality. And, the report warns, ground water con tamination will likelv increase. "For many gr01.1~d water supplies, o problems are just beginning," says Georg Hallberg, chief of the Iowa Geological Sur vey. Consider these examples: The California Deparanenc of Heal Services says in a report soon to be release that pollutants in one-fifth of the state' large drinking water wells fed by groun water exceed the state's pollution limi according to David Storm, head of th survey. Industrial solvents, often potenri human carcinogens, are the most commo contaminants, especially around Los Ange les and Silicon Vallev. According to ; March study by th Iowa Deparanent of Water, Air and W asc Management, pesticides and other syntheri chemicals have been detected in half o Iowa's citv wells. Nitrate concentrations due to fertilizer use, have exceeded the fed eral limits in one-fifth of the private wells i Iowa. Although moderate levels of nitrate are relatively nontoxic, high concentration can cause acute anemia in infants and set offi a chain of events that could result in the/ formation of N-nitrosamines, which are poi tential human carcinogens. In Florida, where the subsurface of sand and limestone acts like a sieve, more than 1000 wells have been shut down as drinking water sources because they are contaminated with the nematocide EDB (ethylene dibro mide), a potential human carcinogen. The average contamination level was 6.5 pares per billion; the state limit on EDB in drink ing water is 0.1 ppb. EDB was banned for most uses by the tederal government in 1983, but it is still showing up in well samples. The state has appropriated $3 million and Dow Chemical, a former maker of EDB, has contributed about 5250,000 co supply potable water to communities that depended on these wells. For decades, it was widely assumed than ground water was impervious to contamina1 tion because soil would bind chemicals amt I smNc,, voe. 'l

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I I I I I 1 I I cleanse water as it percolated through, according to the report by the Council on Environmental Quality. It was also a com mon belief that pesticides would degrade or volatilize rapidly in the soil. Data on the environmental fate of pesticides were not required by the federal government until pesticide regulations were tightened in 1975. Susan Sherman, an official at the Environ mental Protection Agency in charge of pesti cides and ground water protection, says, "There was not a full appreciation of the potential for ground water contamination. We woke up to ground water [problems] a lot later than more obvious pollution prob lems. For too long people thought nature would take care of itself. We've gotten smarter. It's been an evolution." According to the OTA report, there is not enough information to rank the importance of the many sources polluting ground water, but hazardous waste dumps and under ground storage tanks are regarded as a huge contributor. OTA estimates that billions of gallons of hazardous waste have been dis posed at hundreds oflandfills and thousands of surface impoundments from coast to coast, and many of these sites arc assumed to be leaching toxic substances based on the limited monitoring that has been conducted so far. An investigation by the House Ener gy and Commerce Committee last year con cluded that hazardous waste is infiltrating ground water at half the Superfund sites that conduct monitoring. (The committee found that ground water at many Superfund sites has not been monitored, although sampling is r~ by law.) In Florida alone, state authorities in 1979 tallied up 6000 lagoons and ponds filled with toxic waste. ''To our dismay," says Rodney DcHan, head of the state's ground water program, 95% of them were unlined and 90% were unmonitored. In fact, he said, some of the sites were designed to percolate. The state initiated a ground water program that year, DeHan says. Leaking underground storage tanks arc also considered a major source of contami nation. Most of them were built of steel and buried decades ago, and now they are cor roding, says V e!ma Smith, head of the ground water project at the Environmental Policy Instirute in Washington. The Steel Tank Institute estimates that across the na tion 350,000 tanks filled with gasoline alone, excluding containers of hazardous waste, will leak during the next 5 years. In just the past year or two, there has been increasing recognition that pesticides and fertilizers are leaching into aquifers, accor~ ing to Toby Clark, a senior analyst at the Conservation Foundation in Washington. 2.0 JVNE 1986 Pesticides and fertlllzers are infiltrating ground water and an increasingly rerognized as a major source of pollution. Farming practices might ha1>e to be manged. According to the OT A report, 260,000 tons of active ingredients in pesticides and 42 million tons of fertilizer are spread annually over the equivalent of 280 million acres across the countrv. Contamination occurs through conventi~nal application on farm land and an increasingly common method of irrigation called chemigation, in which water is mixed with pesticides. As a result, agricul tural practices may have to be modified in many parts of the country where aquifers are especially vulnerable, says Charles Ben brook, staff direcror of the Board on Agri culture at the National Academy of Sciences which recently released a report on pesti cides, and groundwater quality.:l: EPA scientist Stuart Cohen and col leagues in March reported that 17 pesti cides have now been detected in the ground water of 23 states; the concentrations typi cally ranged from trace amounts to several hundred parts per billion. Two years ago, the count was 12 pesticides found in 18 states. Agency scientists said that the in crease is "significant," and attributed the rise to an increase in the quality and quantity of studies rather than an increase in the problem. A class of pesticides most commonly found in ground water is nematocides. Co hen says, "Nematocides in general are par ticularly worrisome; they are designed to be mobile, persistent and toxic. That's a perfect ground water contaminant." EDB, DBCP ( 1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane), and aldi carb, which are all nematocides, have been found in ground water. EDB and DBCP were banned by the federal government after they were discov ered in high concentrations in ground water in Florida and California, but aldicarb ( also known under the trade name Temik) is still widely used. Aldicarb was banned by New York state in 1982 after it was discovered that the sole aquifer in Long Island, where the soil is primarily limestone and sand, was heavily contaminated with the pesticide. Al dicarb was applied to the area's potato crops. Now the pesticide is showing up in m~y other states, and EPA is currently weighing a variety of options to restrict aldicarb's use, according to Michael Branagan of EPA. One plan would limit its application on a county-by-county basis nationwide, de pending on the hydrogeology of an area. Any restrictions on aldicarb are sure to be controversial in the agriculrural community. Atrazine, which is one of the most widely used herbicides in the countrv and is used in the cultivation of com, is al~ being detected regularly in ground water, and Cohen of EPA predicts that it :will be one of the most common pesticides to be detected in ground water. But Cohen says, "There aren't enough data to say whether it's clean or not. Ciba-Geigy, the main manufacturer of atra zine, has contended that the concentrations found so far arc innocuous. In addition to agricultural use of pesti cides, fertilizers are polluting ground water. Nitrate pollution "is likely [to be found] throughout the Com Belt," says Hallberg, Iowa's chief geologist. Contamination in Iowa poses particular concern because three quarters of the population relies on ground water for drinking. Two years ago, 40 public water sources in Iowa fed by ground water exceeded the federal standard for nitrates, including the ground water for Des Moines. Hallberg says that farmers arc ap plying far more fertilizer than the crops are taking up and the excess nitrogen is leaching into shallow aquifers. Cutbacks in fertilizer NEWS & COMMENT 1491

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1-pplication would be a logical way to pre vent more contamination and save money, he says. But growers, faced with dire finan cial problems, keep heaping on the fertiliz ers, hoping to improve their yields, he says. Smcs and diff'crcnt branches of the fcdcr. al govcmmcnt have been debating for the past several years ways to protect ground water, but have yet to agree on a broad plan. They have not yet resolved several funda mental issues, including what roles each should play and whether a national goal should be set. The issues have been difficult to grapple with because of the vast array of polluting sources and because ground water pollution involves a complex set of environ mental and geological factors and politically sensitive issues of land use and large expenditures of money for activities such as moni toring and research. EPA a.sscrtS it can adequately protect ground water under current starutcs and that no new laws arc nccdcd. The agency manages ground water problems based on a game plan issued in 1984 called the "Ground water Protection Strategy." Marion Mlay, di rector of EPA's ground water program, ac knowledges that the task is complex. "It is cmcmcly difficult to coordinate an agency this si7.c" to protcet ground water, she says. But many leaders from industry, environ mental groups, and state government said last November in a forum sponsored by the Con servation Foundationll that present laws arc "a regulatory patchwork" that "provides inadc quan: protection and largely fails to address dirccdy the complex tcchnical, economic, and political c:1cman_as of ground water management." Orher sources have given EPA low ---marks for cnfurcing present laws to protect < ground water: ill The General Accounting Office in May released a report that cited lengthy delays-up to 2 years-in cleanups at Superfund sites. The auditing agency faulted EPA and other parties responsible for cleanup, such as companies or state governments, and said that the delays jeopardize ground water, which in some cases is relied upon for potable water. And, according_ to an investi gation last year by the House Energy and Commerce Committee, ground water is not being monitored at many federally approved hazardous waste sites as required by law. In May, Congress, frustrated with EPA's slowness in setting safe drinking wa ter standards, passed legislation that would speed up the establishment of limits on hazardous substances in ground water. Since 1974, the agency on its own has not established any new standards. There arc currently formal limits on only 38 chemicals out of more than 200 that have been detect cd in ground water. l+92 Big agricultural chemical manufacrurers and a coalition of activist groups say that EPA needs more starutory clout to regulate pesticides that arc detected in ground water. Mlay says that EPA can try to restrict the application of agricultural chemicals through labeling, but concedes that "en forcement is diflicult. EPA depends on the good senses of people applying it." The National Agricultural Chemicals Associa tion and the coalition together in May pro posed amendments to the current pesticide law that would require EPA to expedite agency action on pesticides for which there arc already limits and the establishment of standards for other pesticides once they arc detected in ground water. The OT A report notes that significant sources of pollution fall beyond EP A's regu latory reach, such as leaking underground storage and septic tanks. Hazardous waste, billions of gallons of it, ban been disposed at hundreds of landfills a&rOSS the nation, and tnlffl'V sites are assumed to be leaching. According to a GAO survey, 1 states want EPA to provide money for protection pro grams and to speed up standard setting for drinking water. Last year, EPA spent only $7 million in grants to help states develop their own programs. So, with increasing evidence of aquifer contamination, some states have taken regulatory matters inro their own hands because they arc tired of waiting for federal action. Victoria Tschinkcl, secretary of the De parancnt of Environmental Regulation in Florida, and officials from other states ex press impatience with EPA and the federal government. Tschinkel says, "Without a na tional goal, other states won't do anything. A federal program would take pressure otf the states to fight locally for ground water legislation." Hallberg, chief of Iowa's Geo logical Survey, remarks, "EPA has an imper tant role to play in setting standards .. because there is a need for uniformitv. W c don't have the time or expertise to make judgments. It's a very complicated task." Tschinkcl adds that EPA should conduct much more research on projects for which the states do not have the money or expertise. She suggests, for instance, that EPA should more vigorously develop computer software to model aquifers. According to a report last July by EPA's science advisory board on ground water research, the agency should greatly expand its ground water research in general, although it did not otfcr a precise figure. EPA last year spent $18 million on ground water research. While states argue for more aid, they generally do not want the federal govern ment ro establish prescriptive goals. Tschin k.cl savs, "we're not excited about a detailed federal program." States have two main concerns: those that already have started ground water programs fear that a federal program would undermine their achieve ments; and, states in general arc passionately opposed to federal action that would infringe their land usc rights. Joan Ham of the Office of Technology Assessment says that "a little message from Congress could go a long way to get [other] states to act. A federal program needs ficxi bility and, at the same rime, must be per ccivcd by states co be a strong mandate" so they arc compelled to develop programs. "It's a difficult balance." The problems in formulating a national policy arc illustrated well by a recent fight in Congress over a provision in the Safe Drink ing W acer Act, which Congress rcautho ri7.cd in May. As originally passed by the House, the bill would have protected ground water based on current and potential usc as a public drinking water well. The provision barred contamination within a wnc around current or future wellheads. But Senate legislators argued in confer ence that the measure, by mandating protec tion of well water based on its fururc use, incrudcd on staces' rights because it indirect ly would require extensive land use plan ning. Especially vociferous were Senate con servatives from the West, who traditionally have been the strongest opponents offcdcral law that could disrupt established water rights in their regions. They argued that states would have to project, for example, whether a chemical company eventually could site a plant over ground water that is not now used for drinking water. Another confcrcc, Senator Dave Duren berger ( R-MN), who is chairman of the toxic substances oversight subcommittee, SCIENCE, VOL. 232

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1985 Notable Documents List THIS THIRD annual GODORT Nota ble Documents List has been compiled by the Notable Documents Committee of the American Library Association's Government Documents Round Table. The Committee hopes the list ~ill pro mote the acquisition of government publications by libraries and their use by library patrons. State and international U.S. docu ments published two years prior to the date of the list are eligible for consider ation. They were considered notable based upon the following criteria: I. Extent to which the title reflects actual contents. 2. Extent to which the document has a relevance for identifiable reader ships. 3. Extent to which the document contibutes to the expansion of knowl edge, gives evidence of innovation in presentation, or demonstrates a cre ative approach in its treatment. 4. Extent to which the document contributes to enhancing the quality of life. 5 .. Extent to which the information provides inspiration or pleasure. 6. Extent to which the document contributes to an understanding of gov ernment processes or functions. 7. Extent to which the document provides for bibliographic or reference use. 8. Extent to which the document is written in a lucid style comprehensible to nonspecialists. 9. Extent to which the document 38 achieves its intended purpose (follows through on its thesis; does what it says it will do). 10. Physical appearance: typogra phy, design, paper, quality of illustra tion, maps, tables, charts, graphs, etc., printing, binding, use of color, case of use of volume; extent to which the doc ument is generally pleasant to browse through. More detailed information con cerning the Notable Documents Com mittee, its selection procedures, and its criteria were published in Documents to the People (September 1982, p. 194195). Unless otherwise indicated, docu ments are available from the Superin tendent of Documents (U.S. Govern ment Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402). Other sources are noted as nec essary within the list; addresses appear at the end. The 1985 Notable Documents Committee consisted of Ed Herman (SUNY, Buffalo) who served as chair and selected and annotated U.S. fed eral documents; Marie Clark (Duke University), state documents; and Jri Stratford (University of California, Davis), international documents. Annotations by individuals other than the above mentioned are noted as neces sary. The following librarians assisted in judging selections: Linda Fleshman (In diana University, South Bend) and Ste phen Hayes (Notre Dame). U.S. federal documents; Suzanne Levy (Fairfax City Regional Library. Springfield, Va.) and Marilyn Moody (Iowa State University, Ames), state documents; and Diane Gamer (Pennsylvania State University, University Park), interna tional documents. Compilation of the I 987 Notable Documents List, containing docu ments published in 1985 and 1986, will begin soon. If you have a document you would like to be considered, please send a copy of the document and your reasons for wanting it con sidered to: Lisa T. AbboH, Docu ments bept., Box 7111, D.H. Library, North Carolina State University, Ra leigh, NC 27695. U.S. DOCUMENTS THE CONTINENTAL Army. by Robert K. Wright Jr. Anny Center of Military History. 1983. SuDoc # D1l4.ll:C76. Stock# 008-029-00122-5. SIS. The organization and deployment of Conti ncntal Anny troops is studied. The roles of Washington and the Continental Congress, European influences, the economy and the war in Canada arc covered. Wright con cludes that the Conti nental Armys supc rior organization of land lranspor1ation and ability to retreat effectively were signifi cant enough to overcome British military su periority. Detailed lineages of units from each colony and Canada arc given. Foot notes and bibliographics arc included. .>IF ;, _::a_ ..

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1)/RI-:CTOR I' of F.,frral Tec/1rwlo,:y R<' w11rce.,. /'NJ.I. National Technical Infor mation Service. Center for the Utilization of federal Technology. dist. by NTIS. 191!4. SuDoc # Cll.2:T22/3. Order # PB !!4-100015. pap. S25. Federal agencies and laboratories involved wilh research lhal might have commerical applications arc listed. Addresses, names of contact people and lheir phone numbers and detailed descriptions of activities are given. Information is indexed by subjects. geographic areas. and names of agencies and laboratories. The publishing agency intends to update 1he volume biennially. FORT LARAM/t. 1111d t/11 Clw11,:i11,: Fron tier. by David Lavender. National !'ark Service. 1983. Su Doc 11129.915: 118. Stock II 024-005-00855-1. $85.50/packagc of 50. The history of Fort Lammie. Wyoming between 1834 and IK90 is outlined. The fort was significant as a lrade center and a military post. following a de tailed introduction. the outpost is considered in relation to changing frontier needs. Part 3. "Life of the Soldier,.. which covers military routines. domestic details. health. and recreation. is especially interesting. The black-and-white. as well as color. photographs. maps. and reproductions of paintings, are very well done. A concise bib liographic essay is included. GETT/ NG Started in Stamp Collect in,: (with Basic Cu/lee tin,: Tools). U.S. Postal Service. 1984(?). SuDuc II Pl.2:ST2/15. Free. This how-to guide is designed lo interest both children and adults in stamp collecting. The different parts of a stamp. in addition to stamp stores. packets. albums. mounts. and color are discussed. The colorful comic book-type characters are especially attractive 10 children. Though the document is quite brief. ii is very informative. GUIDE to /nnmt1tio11 R(.wurce.1 and Plannin!I for the Sm al/a B11.fint.1s. Dept. of Commerce. Office of Productivity. Technology,& Innovation. 1984. Su Doc# Cl .8/ 3:lN6. Order# PH84-176304. pap. $13.50. People in small businesses can tum 10 this guide for resources which will assist them in financing and then marketing innovative products. Pan I dcscrihes planning, research. and commericializalion common lo new technologically advanced products. Pan 2 cites federal. state and local. and pri vate sources to which businesses can turn for assistance. Names and addresses arc cited. along with moderately detailed program descriptions. Appendix I lists America's 50 High-Tech Highways"' and Appendix 2 lists federal oflices that offer services to small and minority-owned business. /1/SfOHIC Am,ri, 11: /111i/di11g.1. Str11ct11rt.1. ,111,/ Sit,.,. h\ :\11la Stamm. Library of Congrc" in :oor. with the National Park ScrvKe ;ind the t\111crn:an Inst. of An:hi tcch. l9l0. Sul>oc # I.Cl.2:1-162/5. Stod # k. arc outlined. Separale sections summarize federal activities, pro vide delailed descrip tions of state reforms. describe selected local programs. and men tion breilly pmjech sponsored hy colkgcs anti univcr-.;itics. as,ociation~ and the private ,ce1or. The typography i, e,pc,1allv i:ood. N /J( .1:-;A R l'm,,r in 1111 A,11e 11/ U11,,r11111/t_1. Office of Technology Assessment l'JX4. SuDoc # Y3.T22/2:2N88/4. St,Kk # 052003-00941-2. SIO. Tht: futurt: of the nuclear industry is exam--~ ined. Finance. technol! ogy. powcrpl;,nt man1 agement. regulation. / public altitudes. and /' policy options are dis cussed. The authors ar / gue thal power suppli-ers must regain support among inveslors and lhe puhlic if lhe nuclear option is to be consid ered a credihle one. The complete repon includes a glossary. numerous charts and ta bles, footnotes. and a detailed index. The summary volume is a lucid. well-illustrated 1 document lhal might arpcal to both YA and/ adult readers. _______,,, tJR-CJ,ANGING E,onom,: a BLS Ce11-tl'l111ial Clwrthook. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 19K4. SuDoc # U.3:2211. Stock# 029-()(lf .()28 I K-1. $2. 7 5. Changes in the American .:conomy since the BLS was crealcd in 1884 arc illustrated and described. Employment and unemploymcnl. productivity. wages. prices. living conditions. and economic growlh are covered. Emphasis is on 19'i0 through !he pre sent. Brief. hut very informative cap tions descrihe the multicolon.:d charh and grarhs. The concluding section lists and descrihes ma_1or B LS ruhlicalion sc-rics. l'ANURAMIC Map., oj Clllc.1 in the U11i1eJ Stat,., and C111wdt1. comp. by John R. Hcben. rev by Patrick E. Dempsey. Library of Congress. 1984. SuDoc F# LCl.2: P 19. Stock # 030-004-0()(122-I. $6. Over 17()() 20th Century panoramic maps in the Library of Congress are listed. The illus tralions. which depict their subjects a, seen from hcighls. describe buildings. road pa!lerns. and landscape features. For each en try. ci1ics. dales. Library of Congress cl.issi ficalion numbers. anists. publishers. lithographers. and map sizes arc notcd~Spccial features include an introductory section describing panoramic marring and rerro duclions of maps. Footnotes. further rckrcnct:s. and an index thal cites map numbers arc provided. TIii: /'0/./T/CS o( lk/,n, H11d1-:etin)/: a .\'t1uiv ,~f(Jr,:t111i:.ati11,; turd Resourn.' A/lo~ n11i,~11 in thr iJnitnl Kingdom. hy Mi'-'."had ll. llnhkirk. Dcrt of l)cfcn,c. Natiun;,I I h..fc .. ht.' lJ III vcr,,t \'. I tJX \ Su Dot." # D'-.402.1!8.'-. S1ud # lMIX-020-tkNl,X-7. ~-''ti Military organi~ational ,truclurc, in the Unilcd State, and llntain arc ,omparcJ hy a relired Bri1i,h dckn.,c dfici;,I. (jcna;,f Off:,!:tni,alion;tl anil dcti~ton-makin~ lhco-

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AKERICAN HETAL HARKET HETALUORKING NEUS HEU YORK, NY WEEKLY 40037 APR/14/1986 Bl(R8fL=t.r-=:s __ _.__ ______ US Fir111s Seen Missing Ceramic Opportunities -. I By MARK SFl~l~OJ European companies, he said. five to 10 years before it ran be WASHINGTON;-Umted State~ companies may ~e mtssmg some promising market opportunities for. Research in this area in the U.S. determined for certain that ruct~ral_ceram1cs by not dev?t!_ng as much atten~1on_as do ~urope and Japan to applications for these does not appear to be as strong, ceramics can take the stress and ater1als m areas such as med1cme and const~uctlon, m the view of Gregory Eyring of the Congressional he added. temperatures incurred in gas turffice of Technology Assessment. Successful development of bine engines. Eyr!ng, who is project director of the assessment office's energy and materials program, has been such materials ~.t a reas~nable _Polymer composites pre.sent a udymg the developme'!t of advan.ced n_iaterials and their future at the direction of the House Science and cost h_a ve the pote n ~.1 1 for di~erent case ,!han ceramics, ~e mat~Commerce_committees.Anmterimreportofhisfindingsisslatedtobepresentedtothecommittecs replacmg_ a lot of steel m the said, because the technology is ,met1me later this year. construction of structures such here." Eyring's study is attempting to impact of advanced materials on bi o. ceramics, 0 r medical as buildings and bridges, he said. The biggest challenge faci~g ;sesscommercialopportunities themetalsindustries,technology applications for ceramics, "the Eyr_ing also observed that the polymer composites lies in ,r structural ceramics, polymer transfer and international Japanese have a mounted effort" development of a viable ceramic "bringing them down in price so 1mposites and metal matrixes competitiveness. underway. engine may be further away than they can be used commercially," 1er the next 20 to 25 years "and While declining to discuss spe-Meanwhile, the strongest some people may think. Eyringsaid. Another challenge is 1e R & D priorities implied" in cifically his research pending thrusts in the development of ''.We think forecasts for heat the development of machinery to 1at assessment, he said. completion of the report, Eyring advanced chemically bonding engine applications (for process and apply composite Other aspects of the study, Eyrobserved in a telephone intermaterials for reinforcing cement ceramics) are s_o mew hat materials. 1g said, include the economic view last w~ek that in the area of and concrete are being made by optimistic," he said. "There's a But while advanced materials ...,_ .. _. ....,_ lot of (R & D) money being spent are clearly here to stay, Eyring (in this area). I'm not.suggesting agreed that the metals industries the money is misspent. But (this are not exactly sitting still. For application) utilizes a large porexample, he cited the develoption of research resources. mentandgrowthofhigh-strength Maybe we should reevaluate that low-alloy steels as "really spending." impressive and growing faster in Eyring said it may be another autos than polymers right now.'' / .--- ,"<;

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RADIO CLIPS DATE TIME STATION LOCATION PROGRAM March 20, 1986 12:00-1 :00 PM WCBS 880 AM New York City News 75 EAST NORTHFIELD AVENUE I LIVINGSTON I NEW JERSEY 07039 /201 / 992-6600 I /212/ 227-5570 I /800) 631-1160 ACCOUNT NUMBER Jim Donnelly reporting: 10/6297 Y The baby boom and a higher rate of college-bound students more than tripled college enrollment between 1960 and 1980, but now colleges are beginning to deal with the babyb~st generation. This is Countdown To Tomorrow; I'm Jim Donnelly. Dr. Eugene Frankl, senior analyst at the Office of Technology Assessment of the U.S. Congress, says, 'Some colleges will have a difficult time adjusting to the drop in college students, but on the whole,' he says, 'colleges will have an easier time adjusting to the projected twelveto sixteen-percent drop in enrollment than they had to the tremendous increase in college-bound students. One of the most serious effects of the proposed declining college population, however, is a marked weakening in the demand for new college faculty. Dr. Frankl says, 'This period of weak college enrollment comes at a time when the faculty retirement rates are low.' Frankie: Most of the faculty that's now on campus was hired between 1960 and 1975, and those people are not expected to start retiring in large numbers until about 1995, so in the next decade, faculty retirements will be low at the same time the student enrollments are low, which means that the demand for new college professors should be very, very weak. Donnelly: But not necessarily in every field. Certain fields, such as engineering are suffering the opposite problem: a greater demand for new faculty than supply. Dr. Frankl says, 'All of this could mean money problems for a lot of colleges.' Frankie: You will have a faculty that's older, which means more expensive. At the same time, their revenue base is eroded by having less students. Donnelly: And while it is difficult to lay off tenured faculty, Frankl says they will be eliminated by the consolidation of some departments within universities and then the closing of other colleges. This is Countdown To Tomorrow. I'm Jim Donnelly. 316 WORDS 26 CLIPS

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~E PUIN OEi\LE~ CLEVEUNO. OH 0. 471,670 ~!IN, ,44_,nr, ,1?; ti Hxf; BVRJ'PEI.U'S U.S. engineering schools are full of foreigners iff,1lJ.L S. GREENBERG WASHINGTON W hell autopsy time finally rolls a1'0Ulld for the American iDdustrial system, the economic coroners sbould looi into the strange pathology that bu enveloped en~ in tile fabled land of Yaotee ingenuity. American universities continue their tradition of producing welltrained engiDeen. But, iDcreaslngly, the students wbo stay on for the most advanced, sophisticated training are foreigners, many of them sent here by their governments or industrial employers to soak up the best we have to offer. -Last year, foreign stu.iieslU received a record 41 % of the engineering Pb.Dnwarded by American universi ties. TIiey also receiftd f7,. of the master's degrees, a toacl! below the all-time higb for that degree. In mathematics, the underpimling of all lid ence and engineering, foreigners received Z32 of tile 699 doctorates awarded in the United State, ill 1914. Foreign students in .AmeriCllll enci neerillg !Cboola have at least one good reason to feel at llome: Allaat half the professors in our engineering schools are foreign citizens. Many of them are drawn from tile ranks of Pb.Os recently graduated from American universities. ("I insist that tbeir English must be understandable," an engineering department head at a major university says of Illa foreign teacbers, "bat otbenrise we can't be too cbooay,") Wltlloat these foreip faculty members, engineering educa tion would be experiencing disaster, rather than the severe shortages that now COl'lfrollt it. The same goea for industry, whicb is increasingly dependent 011 foreign aud naturaliml eagiDeerl to fill its needl. J.ast 1'.11', ICl:Ol'diDC to a Sllf vey by the N&Gall Sciellce Foauda tion, foreipen aecounted for onethird of tbe 8CleDtlsCI aad eagiDeerl hired by Slllcoo Valley electronics firms. Bless Ille foreigners -at least until Bless the foreigners to engineer products for the American market. they go home. as many of them eventually do, to engineer products for the American market. But that still leaves troublesome questions: Why must high-tech America so heavily rely on the sons and daughters of com. petitor nations to belp staff our engineering schools aud iDdDstrlal firma? Where are the American engineers? In recent years, American students have actually been flociillg to engilleeering studies in record numbers. But the job market oat tllere ii !JO good for gradaatel with baebelor'a degrees that relatively tew.aa, on for the advanced degree required for teaching. Aud man, of tllGle who are Ph.Os are lured away by bip,paying industry. The major reason for that bot iudu,. trial job market is the big boom in defense contracting and research. Nearly one in five engilleers in tbe United States works 011 defense, accordillg to the Congressional Office gf Technolog~ssessment. Some observers COllllt that a very comer va tive estimate. In any cue, since security clearances are required for defell!e-related employment. defense industries generally can't recruit from the whole pool of engineers; rather. they're usually limited to American citizens. And, bankrolled by the bountiful Pentagon, they can pay what's necessary to get tbe best, leav ing tbe rest for civilian industry. Another oddity of the job market is the sudden romance between engineering and Wall Street. wllicb bas created a small but growing boom in non-engineering jobs for some of the best engineers coming out of school today. "More aud more of our engineering graduates are going directly into finance," says Robert K. Weatherall, director of the Office of Career Planning and Pracement n tbe Massach setts Institute of Technology. Recruiting by financial firms used to be a rarity, he reports. but in January, six major firms sent representatives to talk to job-seeking engineering and science students. "Tlley're not looking for computer mechanics,'' says Weatherall. wbo bu beaded the office since 19119. The quest is for people who can apply mathematical modeling to financial markets, who can employ computers u crystal bails on Wall Street. qn~i~ .. W~ e~tly reported t!tat sucn graauates, along with pro fessors who have been lured to high finllllCi!, are known on Wall Street as the "rocket scientists," and that their wizardry is "revolutionizing the stock and bond markets." With salaries in six figures. there are already more tllao 1,000 of them at work, and more are on the way as recruiters swarm to major universities. Tllese engineers and scientists are producing fine weapons and new ways of exploiting financial markets. What they're not doing is producing goods that help pay the country's bills. Greeaberg is editor and publisher of Science & Government Report, an independent, internationally circulated newsletter that he founded in 1911.

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EDUCATION WEEK WASHINGTON, D.C. 42 Tl. A YR. MAY 7 1986 I J\cees.5' Urged by Science Group ByBobenRodlman v~-~clumgwin.Anmicanaoci., dealud that achc)ola incraa t.beil' ... ta involw minaria and -in acieDce &JIil tedmol-017echaraaa,Nidparticipaaina Coa,naioaalNminarhoot.edb, tbe American Ateodatioll for tbe .w.wtcl~--..... "We..-pa.J'-aplicitatt.mtmatbatalenipoolandtbeapan... ol tbe talent pool." aaid David A. lfamburs, cbairmaD oltbecidaia'a~and prNWlll&Clltbe Corporatianol Ne.Ya. Ala tm. w'*1 mi.noritia IIJIIG fl'clild ta mab up a grmt.er proprtm oltbe -.bool-qe populatiaa, be ,ad odlllr caaAinllce ...... -... Iba U.& eemaDY'willbeahiftbls tNmd OCClipationtl tbat requjre IIN,ter caacanCratiOII of highly MiW..--L 'lb-ibeeziatenmcilaaliilled ..tilnt,tbeapeciura'~ fllllnl~thaitia-.. i.ene1t.llhe ill illl;reuing tbe ....ti,,ipa: liiirGfmilllidla --~ ad--tnl!w,g JDUlt be "l'llr,w.atwaitiea .re tbent to -....._. Slairley M. ......,,...,..1..t(l(tbe-U.A.11. allloe olGippll'Qllli&iain acimce. "We .. 1iaw111nmlraa..._,Itilla m1t11trfll w will. Do ...,..tlawill?We ma1 c:blmg,a ----it-. Ba&a.., B. J!JID.lr., ---.nt ---,.oleduo:ation isr educational and. improvement, re ... tba llllltiaa that aolutiooa ta the prablem Ult primarily tied toexin feden1 prognuDll to en--He~ instead 11.at...,_-*rateon improv inglltlldm&perbimnce,wbidlhe ......... ..... ______ _,,. -*hmibecun'lllt iD-=-t ia......_"beaid. -Weoucbtto bea_.wit.bllsatuwitb -mydaiils-." I 1111-------(l(-.. ii ibtic pallcy --beld bJ tbe A.A.A.&mrlDmlben.-tbeCoocram their ataillL Laa....,.,, seminar, entitJed"AawtnFmntimI 1-, n&cta a re.latift!y rec:em sluft inempiuill bytbe toward pnllOllegiat.e eduamon. .... 1111d Sdrooola "ft ill DOt eaou8'l to baff uni---tmning out acilmtilla and engi-llidM:r. Hambtq. "You ha-.. us baft IIDlillllll in the pipeline." 11seMDiuralaore1leetadc:ontin ued intawt in the cmmection beeducation aad the economy. Mall:S. Tucbr, -,iuvediNct.orbnthly APR 1 1986 ErtC\Tia.; D IGESr ANN~. c[. ~fMHLY. 40, (XX) 9 TI. A YR. MAR 1986 ~{e< 1 ,CT f\ ~.!' Enrollment Effects I Thg;\121/ne in the college-age pop ulacton pruJected for the nexr dec ade will not necessarily lead to a shorra?e of scientists and engineers, according ro a cechnicaJ memoran~ dum from rhe Office of Technology A.ne:ssmcor / OTA.l :1 nonpartisan analytical agency that serves rhe US Congress. OT A nores rhat pop ulation trends have less effect on the supply of scientists and engineers than do individual career choices and market forces. The most serious effect of the declining college-age population. says OT A, will be a marked weakening in demand for new college /acuity in many bur nor all fields. 'in examining the effects of long, rerm demographic trends un rhe scientific and engineering work force and barriers co I and future trends in) rhc participation of women and minorities in scientific and engineering careers, OT A found that women ate discouraged from entering these fields by gender srcreocyped career expectations and unfavorable trearmenr by the sci ence and engineering work force. Participation of minorities is influ enced by a complex set of focrors including inadequate precollege aca demic preparedness and lack of financial resources.

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ELECTROHIC H!JS hLW ,NU<, HV .,,;Fl:.KLr ,i,,,i>JS MAY/ l.2/J.986 '!!!!!lf.!:f.E -OTA: Can't Measure Basic Research Payoff WASHINGTON (FNS) The extent to which basic research produces major economic payoffs is virtually impossible to measure, according to the QQngres~ional Office of Te~h~?!El5J Assessment. Basic science is not amenable to the type of economic analysis that might be used for applied re search or product development," OT A officials reported to the House Science Policy Task Force on the basis of a study, Research Funding as an Investment: Can We Measure the Returns'? It also concluded that even in the business community, de cisions about research are "much more .the result of open com munications followed by judg ment than the result of quantification." Rep. Don Fuqua (0., Fla. J, chairman of the House Science and Technology Committee, noted that Congress often has been ad vised to view federal funding of scientific research as a long-term investment. rather than as a current operating expense. The committee thus instructed OTA to help it focus on the longer-term payoff to societv from research and the feasibility of predicting and measuring that payoff. Eugene Frankel, project direc tor for the OTA study. noted, how ever, that government R&D man agers avoid quantitative tech niques for project selection, although they sometimes use such methods to assist in program evaluation Dr. Frankel said most govern ment outlays. including that for R&D, are for public goods and services whose market value is very difficult to measure in econ omic terms. "Improving productivity or producing an economic return are not primary justifications for most federal R&D programs," he added. Douglas E. Olesen, executive vice-president of Battelle Mem orial Institute. told the Task Force of sizable payoffs from federal investments in R&D, including our current understanding of elementarv forms of matter and ;_he uni verse as a whole, the existence of the aerospace, computer, micro electronics. and information pro cessing industries, and continu ally-increasing life expectancy of Americans. The real question, suggested the Battelle official, is whether the payoff is commensurate with the expenditure level. "There is no way to answer that with certainty." he declared. My personal intuitive feeling is that the nation has done rather well on its investment in re search. The real key to maxi mizing the benefits of federal re search expenditures is over-all policy and funding stability by the government. "It is probably unrealistic to ex pect significant results from re search projects that are stretched out or terminated early for nonscientific reasons, or from re search programs that are the sub ject of continuing policy debates." Carnegie-Mellon University professor David C. Mowery, study director for the National Academy of Sciences/National Academy of Engineering Panel on Technology & Employment. agreed with OTA's judgment that quantitative analytic techniques are of questionable value to Congressional and high-level Ex ecutive Branch decision-making for basic research. -LLOYD SCHW.-\RTZ

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The .'..ews American BALTIMORE, MD. D 124,355 SUN. 161,245 ~T (JF.'24~ APR 'l 138(:; Bl.!iJ:'tE.LL.!"'S Plastic-gun ban p'roposed to assist terrorism battle Can detection catch up with production? Los Angeles Times News Service WASHINGTON Plastic handguns that are difficult to detect and ideal for use by terrorists "may be available on the commercial market quite soon," Congress' Office of Technology A.,,~~ment reported Tuesday as the House prepared to vote today on a proposed ban of such weapons. The research office said the tech nology exists for developing rein forced-plastic fireamis that cot.Jd be smuggled through metal detectors and X-ray machines at airports and building entrances. However, the office noted in a report to congressmen sponsoring the ban, research is under way "to improve these detection systems and enhance their capability to detect non-metallic weapons and ex plosives. One specific X-ray device shows promise for detection of plas tic guns." An amendment to ban the manu facture and importation of plastic guns was to be offered by Rep. Robert J. Mrazek, D-N.Y., when the controversial fireanns legislation comes before the House. "fm not naive enough to believe we are going to hold off this plastic technology for any significant amount of time," Mrazek said, "but hopefully we can buy enough time to bring airport detection systems to an equivalent level." The congressional report said a Florida manufacturer, in developing a lightweight, rustproof plastic cannon for warplanes and ships, also is devising a plastic .22-caliber pistol to "prove the system" works. The manufacturer, David Byron, president of Byron Inc. of Cassel berry, Fla., ~indicated he is about one to two years away from produc tion" of the pistol, according to the report, which was reque:,'ted by Reps. Mrazek, Ted Weiss, D-N.Y., and Charles E. Schumer, D-N.Y. In a telephone interview, Byron said: "If we don't do it (market the gun), someone else will." It was learned that Byron claims he will produce the gun only if a detection device can be developed a project his own company is working on. Mrazek said he was "cautiously optimistic" on the adoption of his amendment, which is supported by law enforcement groups and op posed by the politically powerful National Rifle Association. In a letter to House colleagues Tuesday, Rep. Larry Craig, R-Ida ho. vigorou.sly protested the amend ment. He charged that it would hinder the military and other gov-' ernment agencies from developing plastic weapons that are "less ex pensive, easier to manufacture and lighter." But Mrazek said government agencies would be exempted from the ban. The congressional report noted that common plastics such as poly ester or nylon cannot withstand the tremendous heat and explosive pressure that results when a gun i:, fired. However, the report said, the problem could be solved by reinforc ing the plastic with glas.s, aramid or carbon fibers. l q

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I ALLENTOWN, PA CALL 0. 129.469 SAT, '132,250 APR 9 1986 /!!!i{f.E,t,,i,E~s __.,-1 Plastic guns could evade detectors, report '-~~ys WASHINGTON (AP) Modern super-reinforced plastics could be used to make haq_dguns that could evade standard metal detectors at airports and other security check points, a congressional report said yesterday. The study, by the Office of Tech nology Assessment, !fa1ifrechnology e:UstscinnaTte so-called "plastic" guns, although there is not yet known to be any fully plastic weap on. The study also noted the govern ment was researching better detec tion devices because of "recent changes in air safety threats." The report was released by Rep. Robert Mrazek, D-N.Y., who has proposed a ban on the manufacture or importation of any firearm unde tectable by standard airport security equipment. Mrazek' s amendment, co-sponsored by Rep. Ted Weiss and Rep. Charles E. Schumer, both Democrats from New York, was sched uled for consideration today by the House when it takes up revisions to the 1968 Federal Gun Control Act. Jim Baker, deputy director of government affairs at the National Rifle Association, said the organiza tion opposed the amendment and be lieves hearings should be held on the issue of plastic weapons. "Currently a fully plastic firearm 1s a purely hypothetical thing," Baker said. "We think better people manning the security devices and better ma<;hines is what is needed, and not gomg off on a tangent." The Office of Technology As sessment, which researches technical and scientific subjects for Con gress, said today's advanced plastics and fiber-reinforced plastic compos ites are strong, lightweight, resistant to corrosion and relatively easy to manufacture, making them "an attractive material for handguns." "From our investigations, it appears that the materials technology does exist to produce non-metallic firearms whose only metal compo nents may be some small springs," the study said. Those guns "would be difficult to detect with metal detectors and X-ray machines now in operation at most airports," the report said. However, the study said that was not the case with the Austrian-made "Glock-17," the only known so-called plastic gun now available. It has oc casionally slipped through metal de tection devices, especially when dis assembled. The report said the Glock-17 is not really considered a plastic weapon since it has more than a pound of metal. OT A said the Glock-17 is "much more readily de tected by standard airport metal de tectors" than would be a plastic gun with only small metal components. The report was widely circulated on Capitol Hill as the House prepared to take up two rival gun control bills. Rep. Larry Craig, R-Idaho, who is on the board of directors of the National Rifle Associ ation, issued a statement denouncing the Mrazek amendment as "unnecessary and potentially troublesome." The report, Craig said, "indicates that although technology does exist to manufacture firearms almost completely from non-metallic sub stances, none yet exists." The report "acknowledges that current airport X-ray devices may not be able to detect plastic weap\ ons but that research is well under '1, way to improve these detection ,,_---,: systems," he said.

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NEWSUAY G!\:WEN CITY, NY (N<'"J York City M;irkr>t Area) n r;7i:;_?lt; r;11:,_~1nq ;\ I iii 1 1 q g,~ [/.!!_1:RJ-i.:__S ---~~ _,,,. ........ !Bill Would B~n 'U ndetec'iable' GUil By Dennis Bell !~;;,''-ij Newsday Washington Bureau Washington Plastic handguns able to pass undetected through airport metal detectors and X-ray devices "may be available on the commercial market quite soon," according to a congressional report released yesterday. Saying the technology to make such guns is ahead of the technology to detect them, Rep. Robert Mrazek (D-Center port), who plans to reintroduce legisla tion today that would ban the domestic manufacture or import of any firearm un detectable by existing airport equipment. Mrazek's bill, introduced in the House in February, will be reoffered today as an amendment to a bill, backed by the Na tional Rifle Association, that would allow interstate sales and transportation of all firearms for the first time in 18 years. That controversial bill, sponsored by Rep. Harold Volkmer(D-Mo.), is expected to be voted on today. The measure, which is opposed by many police organizations, would also ease other provisions of the 1968 gun control law by reducing federal regulation of gun dealers and owners. An NRA spokesman, David Warner, said Mrazek's proposal is unnecessary because "it's based on misinformation he's received about a nonexisting product. It's based on information about the Glock 17, which is detectable. There is no all-plas tic gun." Warner said Mrazek's original bill was introduced shortly after reports surfaced that an Austrian-made pistol, the Glock 17, constructed of both plastic and metal, had occasionally slipped through airport detectors. Warner noted that standard guns have also slipped through metal detectors. He said the Glock 17 gun, containing about a pound of metal, will set off properly work ing detector. But Mrazek said the Austrian weapons producer also has a crude prototype of a plastic gun, containing metal only in the springs. And the report from thtulffice ofTh !!9lQKY ...Assesment. which researclies technical and scientific subjects for Con gress, said a Florida manufacturer, Byron Inc., claims to have a working model of an all-plastic gun that is "about one to .-,'\ two years away from production." David Byron, president of the firm, said last night that his company was also working on a method to detect plastic guns and that "we will never make a gun that is not detectable." The OTA report said the U.S. Customs Service is reviewing a new type of X-ray, developed by American Science and En gineering Inc., that could detect all-plas tic guns in carry-on hand luggage, but that it would cost several times as much as existing airport equipment. The report was ordered by Mrazek and Reps. Charles E. Schumer (D-Brooklyn) and Theodore S. Weiss (D-Manhattan). Schumer and Weiss will cosponsor Mra zek's amendment. Meanwhile, more than 100 police officers, some representing police groups, and representatives from 14 gdn-control groups in 21 states urged lawmakers yesterday to oppose the Volkmer bill. Spokesmen for the 14 groups represented at a news conference said about 100 addi tional officers will be at the Capitol today to lobby House members, as the officers attempt to derail the legislation. / -"' Photo by Tom Kitts Rep. Robert Mrazek

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TV CLIPS DATE TIME STATION LOCATION PROGRAM DATE TIME STATION LOCATION PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFIELD ROAD I LIVINGSTON I NEW JERSEY 07039 (201) 992-6600 I (800) 631-1160 April 9, 1986 5:00-6:00 PM WJLA-TV(ABC) Channel Seven Wash!ngton News7 Paul Berry, co-anchor: ACCOUNT NUMBER NIELSEN AUDIENCE 10/6297 Y 155,000 Well, international terrorists have a more deceptive device to use in their global exploits. They are now using plastic guns. And according to a new report, the guns seem to be tailor-made for such activities because they can be manufactured with existing technology and they can get past standard airport metal detectors. According to the government's Qf fice of Technology Assessment. the guns have only a few metal parts and their main components are made of modern super-reinforced plastics. Research is now under way to come up with a better detection device for these types of weapons. April 8, 1986 11:00-11:30 PM WDIV-TV(NBC) Channel Four Detroit News Four Tonight Margie Reedy, co-anchor: ACCOUNT NUMBER NIELSEN AUDIENCE 10/6297 Y 381,000 A report prepared for Congress tonight says a gun made entirely of plastic will soon be a reality and a threat to airports and .airlines. The Qffice of Technology says there is no one hundred percent plastic gun available right now, but it could be soon and would not be detected by current security devices. The report says research is continuing on new detection devices that might be able to find such a weapon in luggage at airports. 100 Words 8 Clips Video cassettes are available in any format for a period of four weeks from air date from our affiliate: VIDEO MONITORING SERVICES OF AMERICA, INC. (212)736-2010

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cepting the government's limitations. say the most prohable mechanism for restrict ing access to supercomputers will be to place restrictions on the visas of Soviet bloc scholars that would specifically prohibit use of Federally supported supercomputers. Second Saturnian moon/et is detected Academic officials say the use of such visa restrictions would solve a key problem that they have had with the government's proposals: It would place enforcement in the hands of the government and not the university. Bryen admitted that it is not academia's role to act as a po liceman. .. They should not be asked to block any Soviet individual from access to a supercomputer," he said. "They're aca demics. and we shouldn't expect [en forcement] from them." In another Soviet technology-related development, two lawmakers recently introduced legislation that would prohibit Soviet operatives from acquiring control of U.S. banks. This came about, it was revealed, from instances in the 1970s when the So viet Union tried to obtain ownership of four U.S. banks. The Russians, it was learned. had hoped to acquire Western technical and commercial information through these bank ownerships. Two New York Democrats, Sen. ALTHOUGH the Voyager 1 and 2 space craft flew by Saturn in 1980 and 1981, ra dar data from those flights continue to reveal new information about that ringed planet and its environment. The latest discovery, made by Essam Marouf and G. Leonard Tyler of Stanford Univ., is of a second moonlet in the ring system. The first moonlet was found soon after the Voyagers flew by. Jeff Cuzzy and Mike Showalter of NASA Ames Re search Center discovered evidence for it in the Encke gap, a division near the out er edge of ring A, the major ring most distant from the planet. The new moonlet, discovered from evidence in the Voyagers' radar data that had previously been overlooked, orbits the planet in the Cassini division; which separates the A ring from the Bring just Daniel Moynihan and Rep. Charles Schumer. introduced legislation that would require detailed information on the nationality of individuals or associ ations which are behind a bank acquisi tion. The legislators said the bill has the support of the Reagan Administration and should be favorably received in Con-Researchers today work in an increasingly regulated environment HISTORICALLY, research scientists in the U.S. have operated under constraints and regulations of one type or another. This has been especially true when the re search was considered socially sensitive or when wartime national security was in volved. Today scientists are confronted with a new and growing set of restrictions im posed at the government level and en forced by law. These include regulations involving communications. health and safety. and economic considerations. The result, according to a recent study by the congressional Office of Technology Assessment (OTA). are con straints "not just on what topics scientists should pursue. but also on how they should he pursued and the results disseminated." Recent controversies surrounding controls on scientific and technical infor: mation "indicate further erosion of the [publicj trust in scientists' governance" of their activities. despite general public support for science. But there may he less sinister factors at work. "The increased regulation may also indicate that science simply is includ ed as a target of society's increasing will ingness to have regulation on all types of institutions, professions, or activities," the report states. The OT A report, "The Regulatory Environment for Science," was initiated by the House Committee on Science & Technology. It was prepared by an advi sory panel chaired by Dr. Harvey Brooks, professor of technology and public policy at Harvard Univ. It concludes that, regardless of the reasons for constraints, such controls on modern research "are widespread, syner gistic, and cumulative." Controversies over the control of re search have been sparked by concerns over the use of animals in experiments. the risks associated with recombinant DNA research, and the continuing de bate over national security controls and the freedom to disseminate research data. "Although scientists have always ex ercised restraints in their work, the present system of government-based, legally enforceable regulations is relatively new." the study states. Government control mechanisms in clude review commissions and ethics ad visory boards. legislative review of pro posals or projects. moratoria on specific types of research, regulations on the use or possession of substances used in re search, interpretation of agency regula tions, contract provisions, and controls inside it. Neither moonlet has been seen, but Marouf noticed the wake that the new found moonlet created as it swept through the ring material in the Cassini division. "The moonlets leave wakes in the ring particles which are very similar in their patterns to the wakes that boats leave in water," explained Tyler. The lack of visibility of the two moonlets indicates that they consist of dark material that does not reflect sun light-p05.flbly ice mixed with carbon. According to Tyler, the material may dif fer from that in the particles that make up the rings surrounding Saturn. According to radar data, the diame ters of the moonlets probably are no more than 6 mi (10 km), making them true mini-moons. D gress. "Banks provide a unique opportunity for foreign powers to learn what's go ing on in the frontiers of American technology," Schumer said. The Russians "can completely disguise themselves" under existing law, he added. -Ted Agres D Researchers today, whether working In nuclear technology (shown), computer re search, or biotechnology, are confronting more and more regulations that pertain to their work, according to the OTA. on dissemination or publication of re search data. Because Federal support for scientific research has grown during the past decade, the opportunities for regulating sci ence also have increased. the report states. These forms of regulation include legal regulation, formal administrative controls, and priority setting through budget allocations. The growing number of such control mechanisms "increases the possibility that such regulations will be implemented piecemeal, in isolation, and without co-RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT-APRIL 1986 47

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48 ordination. Therefore, they may produce an adverse synergistic effect on the pro gress of science and the research base for innovation." A further concern involves the bur den imposed on science by the growing number of government regulations imposed on many activities. These include reporting requirements for grants and contracts; social programs legislation, such as affirmative action; OSHA regula tions; and right-to-know laws. "Although these actions are de signed to serve a public objective and not to restrain research, they can add to an existing financial and administrative bur den and their effects can be much more difficult to avoid after they are le gally in force," OT A states. Not all controls are exercised by the government, however. Institutional mechanisms include formal administra tive policies, institutional review commit tees, or institutional cooperation with ex ternal requests for constraints. Professional societies also set up codes and guidelines, many of which are exercised though peer review processes. Given all of these circumstances, OT A predicts that several changes may occur in the near future. One is a shift in who must bear the burden of proof for control of research. OT A says that this responsibility has shifted to the researcher "who must prove that the research is safe or anticipate whether dissemination of the research re sults may have some adverse effects on the national interest." Of particular relevance is the contro versy over protecting freedom of speech and scientific inquiry vs protecting na tional military and economic interests. OT A sees both as needs, and suggests that Congress may be called upon to play a greater role in the debate. Another difficult issue for the com ing decade involves computerization of scientific communications. Here the issues will include the protection of intel lectual property as well as the ease and --------------------------------. speed of classification of information. Two stabilized lasers for the price of one. It's quit.ea bargain. You get a versatile 1 mW HeNe laser with frequency stability. Or simply turn a key and get a 1 mW HeNe laser with amplitude stability. All in a single package. '.!:he p.7 A fi:om Sp~ctra-Physics is a model of simplicity. Stab1hty 1s attamed mmut.es after turn-on. The laser requires practically no maint.enance. It operat.es near ambient t.em perature. And it has a proven hard seal with a typical lifetime of 20,000 hours. If you're involved in metrology, int.erferometry, optical testing, holography or relat.ed t.echnologies, you'll find the Model 117 A a real workhorse. And, of course, you can't beat the new low price. Fbr further information contact your local Spectra Physics sales engineer. Or write for our detailed brochure, Spectra-Physics Laser Products Division, 1250 Middlefield Road, Mountain View, CA 94039-7013. Phone (800) 227-8054. @ Spectra-Physics CIRCLE 137 ON INQUIRY CARD Patent reform will continue to gener ate secondary effects involving what types of basic research will be sponsored by pri vate industry and what type of interfer ence may be expected with "intercollegial communication of ideas." Attitudes and professional values of the scientific community itself have played an important role in influencing and sometimes constraining research. During the 1970s, for example, self imposed constraints were adopted during the debate over recombinant DNA re search. Scientists in the field agreed to a voluntary moratorium on such research even though there was no demonstrated proof that the need existed or that the consequences of it would be positive. Finally, science, as in all other areas of endeavor, is influenced by its social and political context. Pressures of U.S. economic competition in world markets and the linking of research accomplish ments (or lack of them) to national stat ure "affect which research is funded and which research results are widely dissemi nated." One alternative to increased regula tion "might be better education of young scientists in the rationale for, and ethical aspects of, regulation," OTA says. Such education today occurs primarily through apprenticeships and informal learning, the report states. "Congress might be asked to consider encouraginge.g., through fellowships-education in the ethics or procedures of regula tion." D "Win a few, lose a few."

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Unfortunately, New York State Doesn't Ban Use of Polygraphs To the Editor: "A Privacy Issue Cuts Across Ideo logical Lines" (Washington Talk page, June 20) reported that under New York State law, employers may not require employees to take poly graphs. Unfortunately, employers in our state legally can and do require astonishing numbers of employees to take polygraph tests. New York Jaw prohibits the use of the psychologicalstress evaluator, a device that pur ports to measure truth or falsity by vocal fluctuations. Except in Erie County, however, there is no Jaw limiting the use of polygraphs that measure heartbeat, respiration, pulse and perspiration. My office is daily forced to tell em ployees that their employers may le gally fire them for refusing to take a test. Yet, Secretary of State George P. Shultz, who courageously stood up to Reagan Administration polygraph forces by refusing to take one, remains in office. Why should New York's em ployees be subjected to a test that a Reagan Cabinet member refused to take because of its unreliability? For five years, I have sought legisla tion to prohibit employers from re quiring applicants or employees to subject themselves to these "heartbreak machines," as one victim dubbed them. Five times that legisla tion has died in the State Senate. Unless it passes this year, employers will remain free to refuse employment to an applicant or fire an employee who refuses to take, or is unable to "pass" a polygraph test. My office receives hundreds of com plaints from those routinely subjected to so-called lie-detector tests. Last year, I held hearings at which poly graph victims, as well as experts, tes tified about the harm done by these purportedly scientific tools. The evi dence, reported by the Congressional Office of Technoloirr: Assessment, is that lie detectors have no validity in employment screening. In one instance of this unscientific testing, a 15-year employee, who had "passed" a polygraph six months be fore, was fired when he "failed" a later polygraph. In another, a job candidate was told the polygraph showed he was lying when he gave his address. He was refused the job. A man whose wife suffered from men tal illness was told he had lied when he truthfully stated that he had suf fered no such illness. A student, work ing to pay his law-school tuition, was fired after taking the test in connec tion with a theft; two weeks later, the real thief was caught putting money TheNewYorkTimes from the register into his pocket. I support passage of the proposed Federal polygraph law and our state legislation, which goes further and contains fewer exemptions. But the same forces that raise the cry of states' rights in opposing the Federal bill are seeking to block passage of state legislation. Until legislation is passed, numerous New York employ ees will lose jobs at the whim of a technique that finds the innocent guilty at least a third of the time. Being branded a liar by a faulty polygraph is a stigma that never lets go. Individuals who have been thus branded continue to be haunted 'by this stigma every time they interview for a job. Thus, a machine docu mented to be inaccurate is both jud,ge and jury, and the individual has no right of appeal. New York's law cries out for reform. ROBERT ABRAMS Attorney General Albany, June 26, 1986

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AAU president Robert Rosenzweig says that "budget, tax polky, accounting mies, and a reduction in student aid, all emanating from ditterent sources, converge to work against these institutions of higher learn ing." Further, he notes, "Congress is not designed to handle this sort of issue," where policy coordination is key. Says Magrath, what we have here is "a silent crisis." BARBARA J. CULLITON But They Endorse The SupercoUider The annual spring meeting of the Associa tion of American Universities (AAU) ap pears to have been dominated by discussion of the grim financial prospects facing higher education (see above). However, the mem bers of the association, which consists of the presidents of some 50 of the nation's leading research universities, took the unusual step of endorsing the most expensive basic research project ever proposed, the Supercon ducting Super Collider (SSC). The meeting approved a letter urging Secretary of Energy John Herrington to back the project. It was hand delivered to him on 22 April by David Gardner, presi dent of the University of California. Her rington must decide this summer whether to seek funds to begin construction of the SSC in fiscal year 1988. A decision to go ahead would require White House approval in the fall and a budget proposal would go to Congress in January 1987. The letter noted that "budgetary restraints threaten the vitalitv of a number of critical areas of science," including high energy physics. "The SSC project is undeniably expensive," the letter stated, "But failure to 'ii 0 proceed would also be very expensive .... ':; Beyonq the loss of potential technological j benefits, failure to build the SSC would t inevitably diminish our scientific and tcchni3 cal advantage in the rest of the world." The letter goes on to urge that "the SSC 5 must not be funded at the expense of other :ci or related disciplines." This addresses the fears of mam scientists that the SSC's $6ll billion const.:Ucrion cost could squeeze out i other science programs at a time of overall budget constraints. AAU president Robert Rosenzweig says the AA U members do not \'iew the SSC "as a substitute for anything." lfthev did, he said, "there would have been a dift~rent response." Days May Be Numbered For Polygraphs in the Private Sector "It either works or it's broken. It's a simple, medical machine." So testited renowned criminal lawver F. Lee Bailev at a recent hearing on polygraphs conducted by the Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources. But Bailey's is a minority opinion. The legislative noose appears to be tightening on the use of polygraphs in the private sector. On 12 March, the House of Representatives passed H.R. 1524, which would outlaw their use for employee screening or testing. Exceptions arc made for federal and local governments, security services, companies dealing with controlled substances, public utilities, child care centers, and nursing homes. The Senate companion bill, S. 1815, sponsored by Orrin Hatch (R-UT) and Edward M. Kennedy (D-MA), exeQ1pts only government use. Federal legislation to restrict polygraph use has been in the works for a long time, with about 40 bills having been introduced N THERE IS THAT ONE SMAI..L PROBLEM'' would tighten standards for the conduct of examinations and the training of poly graphers. The Reagan Administration strongly opposes "federalizing the law in this area." (Thirty-two states now have laws restricting polygraph use.) But the purport of most of the testimony at the hearing was that polygraph use outside law enforcement and national security areas is not justified on scientific, constitutional, or practical grounds. The overwhelming majority of the esti mated 2 million polygraph tests <'.onducted each year arc conducted by private business, with 80% of these for the purpose of screen ing employees. Many jewelers, bankers, and retailers with high employee rurnovcr claim that the availability of polygraphs can radically cut internal thefts, which are estimated to amount to anvwhcrc from $5 billion to $40 billion a v~ar. But several witnesses countered that polygraphs are often used as a "quick fix" to substirute for carefol background checks and better auditing proce dures. There do not seem to be convincing data to support some of the sweeping claims of polygraph advocates. Psychologist Leonard Saxe of Boston University said there are only a handful of. published field srudies, which show far less validity for polygraphs d1an do laboratorv studies. He said that if rigorous standards, such as those of Jhe American Psychological Association, were applied to polygraphcrs, "I have no doubt d1at polygraph tests would be relegated to the same historical position as sensory tests that were once thought to be indicative of intelligence." Psychologist David Raskin of the Univer sity of Utah said "there is nor a single scientific srudv which demonstrates anv reasonable degr~e of accuracy for genera.I em ployment screening tests." He also noted that "the vast majoritv of major successful companies do not use.polygraphs." Indeed, a statement submitted by the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers said that a survey of 33 large electric utilities ( a categorv proposed for exemption), 15 of which had licensed nuclear plants, showed that only 5 used polygraphs. Polygraphs have suffered much adverse publicity of late.:, including the outraged reaction by Secretary of State George Shultz in the past 12 years. Strong bipartisan sup( to the Administration's decision last No port has been developing since 1983, when ) vember to authorize expanded testing in the Office of Technology Assessment ref federal agencies. An Associated Press poll leased a report saving that the. technology i conducted in March revealed that, while Rosenzweig says the AAU does not intend to make constmction of the SSC a top legislative priority. "We have said what we are going to say on it," he said. was valuable for aiminal. investigations, hut two-thirds of the respondents said they it is virtually worthless .is a scrtening dewould be willing to take a polygraph test for COLIN NORMAN 9 MAY 1986 vic1i. employment, only half that number thought The American Polygraph Association has been lobbying hard t1,r substitute bills that employers should have the right to adminis ter such tests. CONSTANCE HOLDEN NEWS & COMMENT -05

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), JUN 19 ;1 Bf/tf(?,.L.1.E'S The Lie _Detector Bill Hits a Snag :::. ,4 / '-J J!1r Xrm Uork i:!:imru 'iE'II YCRK, ;l,Y_ D. 314.:30 ,~N. 1,553.720 SAT ?Jl.545 JUN 20 1986 Bf/6!1,Et.L.,!FS Congress With sponsorship by Democrat Edward Ken nedy and Republican Orrin Hatch, it looked like smooth sailing in the Senate for the proposed Em ployee Polygraph Protection Act, which would out law most uses of lie detectors in private employ ment. Nobody, apparently, reckoned with Senator Strom Thurmond. Citing objections on grounds of federalism, the South Carolina Republican has pronounced himself unalterably opposed to the bill. He vows to submit and debate in committee as many as 60 amend ments to keep it bottled up. He should not be allowed to prevail. Two million Americans a year have to take lie tests to get or keep jobs. Citing data from Congress's Office of Technology Assessment, Seiiiitcir Hatch estimates that 50,000 are denied employment or promotion on the basis of results that are dubious at best. The Technology Office has said that in pre employment screening, which accounts for three quarters of polygraph use, the error rate can be 50 percent. Flipping a coin would be as useful. The Technology Office found "some evidence" of polygraph validity in criminal investigations. Even that seems shaky in light of demonsfrations such as that on CBS's "60 Minutes" recently. Three polygraphists "proved" that three different people had stolen a camera from their employer's offices when in fact no camera had been stolen. Senator Thurmond doesn't deny the problem, just the need for a Federal solution. Yet there has been testimony, credible to many lawmakers, that employers in states that prohibit polygraph use have transported workers across state lines for tests. And the authority of the Federal Government to legislate labor protections like this 1s well esrnb lished. Let Senator Thurmond have his filibuster -:-hen let the Senate get on with approvmg this nee,ded legislation. A Privacy Issue Cuts Across Ideological Lines ---i By LINDA GREENHOUSE :ipec1al to The New Yori<, Times WASHe,r.TON, June 19 -Senator Orrin G. Hatch, the conservative Utah Republican, is not often found on the same side of an issue as organ ized labor and the American Civil Liberties Union. But he shares their distaste for the gtowing use of the polygraph, or lie detector, in the workplace. As a resuh, a bill to sharply limit its the use by private employers is likely to pass Congress this year, despite the opposition of other Republican Senators who are usually Mr. Hatch's allies. A bill to prohibit the use ot polygraphs, both for pre-employment screening and on-the-job investi gations, passed the House of Representatives in March by a vote of 236 to 173. It covered about 80 percent of private employment, with exemptions for certain security guards and some workers in the pharmaceutical, public utility, day care and nursing home industries. Measure Is Stuck in Labor Committee Senator Hatchs bill is even more sweeping, exempting only employees of military contractors who have access to classified material. It has been bottled up in the Senate Labor and Human Re sources Committee, which Mr. Hatch heads, by the opposition of key Republican members led by Strom Thurmond of South Carolina. The opponents have introduced 59 amendments to permit the use of polygraphs on parking garage attendants, gas station employees, real estate agents and exterminators, among many others. But at a testy committee meeting Wednesday, as Senawr Malcolm Wallop. a Wyoming Republican, was introducing a package of amendments that threatened to consume the entire session, Senator Hatch announced that he was tired of waiting. He said 300,000 workers were being "misbranded" every year as the result of faulty polygraph examinations, a situation he called intolerable.'' Flanked by Senator Edward M. Kennedy, who is the committee's ranking Democrat as well as the _,, TheNlw y,,rk r,r:~~~ co-sponsor ot the bill. Senator Hatch said he was prepared to force a vote on his bill without amend ments. If the opponents would not agree to a vote, he said he would move at the committee's meeting next Wednesday to invoke cloture, a rarely used parliamentary device that cuts off debate and forces an early vote. A simple maJority of the 16 committee members is sufficient to cut off debatf', and Senator Hatch can probably count on at least 10 votes. Assuming rhe bill clears the committee next week, the path from there is unclear. Senator Hatch acknowledged Wednesday that President Reagan would pro-...,ably veto the bill 10 lts present form. He said he was committed to working nut a compromise that would permit a strong bill to be signed into law. Allan Adler, an American Civil Liberties Union lawyer who has been monitoring the bill, said in an interview that Senator Hatch's approach was "sensible strategy." He said the Senator had been "receptive to our assistance." Conceding that the al liance was an unlikely one, .:Vtr. Adler said: "Support for this bill crosses 1deological lines, and that's as it should be when 1t comes to an issue of basic human dignity." Use of Device Has Tripled in a Deeade The use of polygraphs by pnvate industry has tripled in the last 10 vears. More than two million examinations are giv"en each year, most as part uf pre-employment screening. A su,dy by the C,meressional Office of Technology Assessment concl!.tdt2d that polygraphs. while useful for investigating spt>cific insunces of wrongdoing, :..1.re not vaHd for general screernng and have a high error rate. Connecticut and New Jersey are among 11 states that ban the use of polygraphs by private employ ers. New York prohibits employers from requiring employees to take a polygraph test, but permits employees to "volunteer. Critics say the New York law creates a coercive climate in wh'cj a re fusal to take the test is often seen as an admission that something is wrong. Senator Thurmond and the other opponents maintain that regulation should be left to the states. Senator Thurmond, who aid not attend Wednesday's committee session, submitted a staLcment saying he recognized there were abuses but that "under our system, not every problem has a Federal solution."

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.. .. -. :.-, ,, .. ,. :::-: i '~.. ~~r:7-0;, '>:t i~;;roi 1uno_a_D,,WEP. _Y, JUNE 4, 198'1.,.. -~-~,~-~, ,. -, .. ,, -.. ii ;; .. J, IM. ... ~--____ ....... ...-........_._...,. ___ ~_ ...:., """" f' --;i~r-Jlder}J~al ::J,;;' In U.S. I)on't Get Proper Tr~~tljJ/e~t .. ~-:. .... -~ By JOANN s:: ttJq -~.:, :., Sta//Repottero/THS 'WA1.i._S'l'RP.:BTiYoJ~NAL WASHINGTON.,.,-,Many of the seven mil lion elderly Americans with lmpai~ ~earing don't get adequate treatment, l congressiona1 advisory group ,said. .. / A''report by Congress',sQfftce.(t,1'ech nology Assessment blam!!d ,1g{loni~;:in.-, suff~t insur;ilice-re~~men.t-ai_ld O fragmented medical eare-~,counsellng~ By the year 2000, .. the .,said, IJIOre thar(rll million elderly peoJjle'.wlJhruffer significant .. hearing difftc~ty'., !fhJ! wlde spreM problem affects elderly tndMduals~ s~_ty, qualtty bf life~ and ~Pitx_ to Hve independently," according toJhe ~port. "Federal initiatives in thi{areas of re-:' search, public education ilJlc;I improvements tn the service-delivery spje,n could help"IOlve the problems faced :\>t hearing~. Impaired elderly people, .. '.the congressional office concluded; .!'f.Y .,._ An analytical arm of Congress. the techpology agency usually doesn't recommend policy 'ci1anges. The agency':can in fluelice Congress,. however, l>y caJltng at tenllon to an-issue~ ,:. :> ,. -Separate House and senate btilS;encour aglnf the use ot listening dev.iees and. ~ele-. phone-amplification -eqidpment '-/'1fave stalfed. but SJlODS()rs~ theJ~pori~ould ren~ Interest. Pending lel{lslation wou1d Allow Medicare and Medicaid,to reimburse lndivtduals for new~r listening devices, such as those the beariJig-impaired can use In tfi,eaters."Other;l>Ws. w(!Ul~freqUire all rew~dsephones to ~;com~bJewipi hear-ng i!J,/, .. 'liJle report rioted 'that :f11:edlcal-!ris~ce pro~, generally cov.er -s,lll'gi~-'.treat mert~ ~ut_,'.-'.fall;to fund ,!be ~eatm~ts that a~ f.l~~y~ fo~, ~ld.E?.':~~r-:::1.n:1 ~~::; r:~~r~i~.~;\~:,-g~ /\: Few elderly people _wttKJini>ai~ hear Ing -use hearing aids, the NJ>Ort ,said. and th~ who do often buy. thenf wi(hout first gettlng a complete heannr.,evaluatlon. ''.ck of Medicare ietmbursen'lent1.for a hea~ng ~valuatton_,to'.~ect.!'e;,h~ aid exacef-bat~" the p~~m~f,poor~t aids, '1te agency anJ)ysls;~tended.. The agency blafued .tJit-: f'ragmented .' care of heartrfrtrnpll.tn!dPE!Qple c,n.rlvalry among ~ree,fypes of he~_rhig-~lalists: \ physiclahS, .. a:udlologlsts and hearing-aid i' deaters.'Thls:f!i:P~ "amaJor problem l for ~e etderlt''. ~~~-could be resolved "by It conares,s calling som,ttention to it,'.' con~= ~~-a;!~~:-~~:: a~~;-1,who .. .. i:.'hff.~->~-... ~'J.C:i~ ,.~;~~.:;.,,;~ .... "'

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New Scientist 15 May 1986 60 Disappearing species, deforestation and data Conservationists are issuing dire warnings about the effects of clearing the jungle. But the closer you look at the evidence, the less of it there seems to be THE issue of species loss is heating up. In 198 3, the United States Congress set up a task force to develop a strategy for the conservation of biological diversity, and the task force produced a report in 1985. The Congres sional Office of Technology Assessment (OT A) commissioned 50 papers and drafted a study document, Technologies to ,Vaintain Biological Diversitv, which culminates in a discussion of .. policy issues and options for Congressional action". People are clearly worrying about the implications of extinction. but I believe that they are calling for action before they know what action is required. The OT A's study grows out of the 1980 Global 2000 Report to the President, which expressed concern.over the possible loss of species between now and the year 2000. The "major findings and conclusions" section said: "Extinctions of plant and animal species will increase dramatically. Hundreds of thousands of species-perhaps as many as 20 per cent of all species on Earth-will be irretrievably lost as their habitats vanish, especially in tropical forests." Global 2000 also expressed concern about deforestation, especially in the tropics, and its effect upon species loss. "The projections indicate that by :woo some 40 per cent of the remaining forest cover in LDCs (less developed countries) will be gone." Concern is now widespread. An article dealing with Global 2000 in Science ends like this: .. We cannot afford the extinction of' 15 to 20 per cent of all species on Earth' by the year 2000. as predicted in Global 2000." And US Agency for International Development, citing the relationship of species to forests, says that "destruction of humid tropical forests is one of the most important environmental issues for the remainder of this century". Both are typical responses. Julian L. Simon \ \ i. \ The available facts. however, are not consis tent with the level of concern. I do not suggest that our society. and humanity at large. should not attend to possible dangers to species. Species constitute a valuable endowment. and we should guard their survival just as we guard our other physical and social assets. But we should strive Raill/vre.11:, 111 1h.: .~111u:111Z art: cl.:ared 10 build mads. log rri!i!s wul crealt! agrrc Iii for a clear and unbiased view of this set of assets ,; -rural land. ls the damage ro habitat and 1,dd!ift' rear'

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J?.~~I.. nf S1'!1. \ WATER CONSERVAT!ON ANKENY, IA Bl-MONTHLY 1PR 1386 Bv~Eue~s Gr~s.sroots upswing Gtass~oots activity is flourishing because of public interest in environ mental issues, a new Office of Technol ggy Assessment report says. Groups of citizens mainly undertake activities that federal or state agencies cannot or will not do, according to the report. These activities contribute signif icantly to the conservation of plants, animals, and habitats. Most individuals involved in grass roots activity are volunteers, the report says, and funding for such activity is a major constraint. The groups depend largely on donations from members and other interested individuals, though grants from charitable foundations and industry are also important to some groups. Copies of the 'OT A report, "Grassroots Conservation of Biological Diversity in the United States," are available for $3.50, prepaid, from the U.S. Govern ment Printing Office in Washington, I D.C. I

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MINNEAPOLIS STAR AND TRIBUNE MINNEAPOLIS, MN O. 373,145 S. 590,98S APR 23 1986 Pair is trying to reverse genetic clock f o~ crops to keep qlq ~tr~,!~.~ry~~!~.:some -o1dt 1 ~t I ge_ tie)' re ptanung backward, By Brue Besu __ ....:-J might say t odlans of an Stall Writer : C al lhtY fe,,l :~~"!~Will be neede4 Do~ and Tom WoodS_ gri.:=.;:!':'i,. planet in tbe ruture. And WIie% corn they're plantill8 this ~iot1!l like theirs nave the support ol ;II& It'll be blue or rey1""fd that most government I bOut one-tlllrd the 1 a ,,. __ _,. farmers maJU!. rln& as for the past severa good .....,....-This !l> will plant corn and other of the nonprofit thesreedlng farm animals. trying to recapture centurr..,ld cbaracterlslla Ill clllcltens. saeep, pip. nones and cattle. Some of Ille early cllaracterlslla are now undesirable. lllCII III tile atgll proportion ot fat on boll wben lard was an Important pn>cluct. But some of the bal'dlllesl lWI stteDCtb ol earlier strains of anlmall made them less delicate and less llltely to need vetertnuy care. TheU.S.0,..-~ Tecbnotncx .aWSfl'Qfflfli a report Tom Jerde of Mtnnapolls agrees. He 81'""9 abou1 135 hetr!oom varieties In two soutll Mlnne81>)119 gardens aod llas been pan of a nallooal """'1,..vers' exchange since 1980. ae studied agroaomy 1111d plant genetics in college 11110 said woning wtlll old and rare ptants adds an element of dlfflculty and reward to gardening. "If you're dealing Willi a seed tllat tllere's maybe a pound of .....i 10 Ille wortd, you'"' l!Oillll lO be a little J110re responsible. Jerde said. ''TIils ls something tllal wllen It's 110ne. it'! gone., because you won1 be getting It baelil tlu'oup pnetlc engineering. Reirtoom gardenlnll is also great IUD. said Jerde. wbo grows a variety ol yam int:rcdaced in IW tllat llnl"" a 3-foot-toag. 30,,powid. sweet and fllSt> 111oar. Anet a II-blue varlelY of pojato enllallce9111e t1)eCtnllll ol Ida bortlcultural e.zpertence. "1 get blue mubed potatoes in the fall and put some yellow butter on It and Itel a '"'n pool In the center ... lt'u .. Jerde said.

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news R&D FUNDING Re-evaluate electronics funding: OTA t.., 1-f1 i THE RELD of microelectronics has a promising future, especially as silicon in tegrated circuits (ICs) continue to be min iaturized. However, Federal government fund ing of microelectronics R&D needs to be re-evaluated if U.S. industry is to remain competitive in the international market. Of special concern is the role Defense Dept. funding has on future research di rections, since DOD sponsors the largest share of microelectronics R&D. According to a new study by the con gressional ..Q!!fce of TectJug!Qgy As~ssment, dunng the next 20 years the prima ry technological trend in [Cs probably will be continued miniaturization, since this historically has been the key to better and less-expensive chips. OT A estimates that this trend will continue for the next 5 to 10 years and will begin to level off in about 15 years, when minimum dimensions are between 0.1 and 0.2 .m-about a tenth of today's minimum production size. In its background paper, "Mitroelec tronics Research & Development," OTA notes that the capabilities of ICs have more than doubled every two years since the chip was invented 27 years ago. "Microelectronics is the cornerstone of informatio11J~hnologies that pervade virtually every aspect of contemporary .-. the report states. "Furthermore, the microelectronics industry-and the industries that depend on it-are vital to the U.S. economy." OT A identified four basic changes occurring in institutional support for mi croelectronics R&D in the U.S.: D Over the past few years Japanese firms have acquired a growing share of the international market previously held by U.S. firms. This has reduced profits for U.S. companies, which could lead to decreased R&D efforts by the industry. D Japanese companies have demon strated an "exceptional capability" to transform research concepts into prod ucts. There is growing evidence that Japa nese basic research efforts are outpacing U.S. efforts in some areas of microelec tronics, such as opto-electronics. O Cooperative research efforts are gaining popularity as a means of compen sating for limited resources and person nel. These activities typically involve dif ferent industrial. academic, and Federal government organizations. D The deregulation of the telecom munications industry is affecting R&D in microelectronics-related areas. The ac tivities of AT&T Bell Laboratories are becoming more-closely tied to products than research efforts before the divestiture of Bell Labs. Mid-to long-term R&D efforts, OT A states, will focus on different tech nologies, including gallium arsenide {GaAs) digital and analog {microwave) ICs; opto-electronics; and quantum-ef fect structures. The outlook for microelectronics based on materials other than semicon ductors appears limited in the next few decades, the report states. For example, R&D on Josephson junction technology-once a major con tender for the next generation of ICs for computers-presently is receiving limited attention. And efforts in biomolecular electronics are exploratory and their promise is speculative. "Most experts believe that they will not come to fruition in the next few dec ades, if ever," the report states. Given the pressures placed on the U.S. microelectronics industry by _inter national competition and other factors, Federal government funding of R&D as sumes major significance. The lion's share of Federal R&D for microelectronics comes from the Pentagon and is there fore driven by military needs. 'Development activities for military microelectronics do not overlap com pletely the activities for commercial needs." the report states. Low-cost, high volume production capabilities. for exam ple. are of priority for the commercial sector but not for DOD. But Federal support for microelec tronics R&D covers a wide range and can exert considerable leverage in key areas, possibly even leading the way for partici pants in the commercial and academic sectors by targeting R&D funds. This has already happened in the case of GaAs re search sponsored by the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (DARPA). In 1982. DARPA decided to fund a series of pilot production lines to demon strate the feasibility of using GaAs for ICs. This kindled the interest of several organizations which began their own in tensive research efforts into GaAs. Additional questions arising from DOD funding of microelectronics include the Pentagon"s control of R&D. particu larly university research activities and the Universities protest funding limits IN AN EFFORT to limit the Federal budget deficit over the next few years. the Reagan Administration has proposed cutting university research funding by millions of dollars. Announcement of this propo.,al has drawn protests from colleges and univer sities across the country and, as a result. the Administration has delayed imple mentation of the plan-but only for three months. Federal agencies provide the major ity of funding for research conducted by universities. In FY82, for example, Fed eral agencies provided 64% of the $7.3 billion spent on research at universities. Nearly 75% of this amount goes to direct support for individual scientists engaged in research in a discrete area. The balance helps fund university pro gram support and center support-including equipment, facilities, and ad ministrative costs associated with implementing the research programs. In 1984, university administrative costs associated with Federally support ed research totaled $1.7 billion, nearly half of the $3. 7 billion provided for direct scientific research. The Administration now is propos ing to limit the amount of funds for ad ministrative overhead to 26% of the Fed erally funded research budget for each university. Joseph Wright Jr., deputy director of the Office of Management & Budget, told a House of Representatives bearing in March that these limits could save $100 million. Wright said that in April 1987 the ceiling would be lowered to 20%, resulting in a cut of $200 million or more. The government had planned to im plement the ceilings this past April 1, but opposition from universities led the Ad ministration to postpone it until July 1. During this time, Federal and university officials will be discussing how the cuts can best be made other than from admin istrative cost areas. :J RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT-MAY 1986 45

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--~---impact of the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) on the structure of Pentagon-fund ed microelectronics research. For several years a debate has focused on Federal government control of the results of classified scientific research, and the issue remains unresolved (R&D January, p 39). MATERIALS R&D funding under SDI raises other concerns. including whether other De fense funds will be restructured and trans ferred to SDI. Issues of academic free dom for university researchers receiving SD[ funding remain controversial, with some groups advocating a ban on such participation. Other university ,":searchers. howev er, apparently do not airee. OTA repons that SD l's lnnovative Science & Technology Office received some 2. 700 prelimi nary proposals from university research ers over a recent 3-month period, showing strong interest from the aca demic community.-Ted Agres C Photon gating could increase data storage density RESEARCHERS AT IBM Corp. 's Almaden Research Center, San Jose, CA, have identified a group of materials that could be used as the basis for improved high density data storage. The materials could make practical a technique, called frequency domain opti cal storage, which would use various fre quencies of laser light to record, read, and erase computer data. It has the po tential to store up to 100 billion characters of information/in.2 making it the highest data density ever achieved in a medium of this type. The materials that the researchers are studying are called photon-gated ma terials. These compounds show great promise as a recording medium because they enable the nondestructive reading of data-which overcomes a major technical hurdle that has confronted the IBM re searchers since they first patented fre quency domain optical storage in 1978. Photon-gated materials consist of particular ions dispersed throughout a host material and cooled to liquid helium temperatures ( -450 F). J'be researchers-Roger Macfar lane, 'Robert Shelby, W.E. Moerner, Howard Lee, and Albrecht Winnackerhave identified organic and inorganic photon-gated materials. The organic ma terials consists of carbazole molecules in a boric-acid glass matrix, and the inorganic compound is composed of rare earth ions in an alkaline fluoride crystal. The materials are called photon-gat ed because two laser (photon) sources are used to record data. To encode one bit of data, two laser beams of different wave lengths (colors) are fired at a small spot of material. One beam, the read/write beam, ex cites a small number of molecules, which are sensitive to that laser's specific fre quency, in the exposed area. The second beam, the gating beam, provides suffi cient additional energy to record a bit by "bleaching" the excited molecules. Bleaching occurs when the excited molecules undergo a rapid chemical change so that they no longer absorb the read/write laser beam. The absence and presence of such bleached molecules can represent the ls and Os used to encode data. By slightly varying the frequency of 4e RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT-MAY 1986 the read/write beam, other groups of mol ecules can be selectively excited and bleached. Extremely high densities are possible because several thousands of dis tinct molecular groups, each representing a bit of data, typically are present in the same exposed area. "At the spot of material where the laser is focused, just by tuning the laser beams you can record 1,000 or 10,000 bits of information," said Jon Iwata, an IBM spokesperson. "The reason why that works is be cause of the imperfections in the material, brought on by strains, atom vacancies, displacements, etc. These imperfections are higher at a lower temperature," he toldR&D. 'In fact, the imperfections disappear in most materials at room temperature. So for the technique to work, as far as we know, you have to have the material cooled to a liquid-helium temperature range." In an experiment demonstrating the photon-gating process, the researchers recorded one bit of data by firing a red read/write laser beam and a green gating beam at a spot of photon-gated material which was about 50 .m wide and 1 mm thick. Together. the beams bleached a group of molecules in the exposed area. Without moving to another spot, the researchers then tuned the read/write beam to a slightly different shade of red. Another group of molecules responded to the slightly changed color and were bleached. Using only the red beam, they read the data with no detectable degrada tion. They used a blue laser beam to erase IBM researchers Roger Macfarlane (left), Robert Shelby, and W.E. Moerner demonstrate the use of photon-gated materials for the storage of data. Densities as high as 100 billion charactersiln. 2 could be achieved with these types of materials, they said. 1

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ELECTRONIC KEYS HEY 'iORK, H"i 05 WEEKLV 666 APR/07/1.986 Bu~G l, .... BY JAPANES~ PRESSURE Sees Threat to U.S. R&D WASHINGTON Increasing pressure by Japanese semi conductor manufacturers on the market base of U. S, com panies may take a heavy toll on research and development programs in this country as firms scale back. warned a bipartisan Congressional study. The report on "Microelectronics R&D" by the Office of Tech nology Assessment said the current slump in the electronics industry, coupled'with rising competition from offshore sources, poses a "paradox" for U.S. companies. "Without continued strength in R&D. solutions to the near term problems will only delay the decline of the U.S. com panies," the report said. "Yet microelectronics firms that are struggling to survive are likely to neglect R&D activity in the face of more immediate and pressing problems. While noting Japan's "exceptional capa~i!ity .. to translate research concepts into products. the report warned there now is .. growing evidence Japanese basic research efforts are outpac ing U.S. efforts in some areas of microelectronics." OTA claims the structure of Japan's electronics industry strongly shapes that country's R&D spending. OTA said that while vertically integrated companies in the U.S. generally support a full range of activities from basic research to applied development. merchant firms tend to limit R&D to the last stages of development. "In contrast to the U.S., Japan hlis almost no merchant microelectronics firms. Its large. stable. vertically integrated companies can and do invest more heavily in long term R&D than U.S. merchant firms, the OTA study said. Although the OTA report, labelled a "background paper," did not make any recommendations. it noted that some in industry favor government support for commercial research similarto the military's funding of the VHSIC ( very-high-speed integrated circuit> program. "But opinions in the microelectronics com munity diverge sharply on this topic." the report added. A compromise, according to the study, was suggested by Semiconductor Research Corp., an industry cooperative that funds research at the university level, which the study said may press for matching government funds in the next few years. "The doubled budget would be administered solely by SRC, which would soothe at least the concerns of SRC's member companies about the selection of research topics and the avail ability of results." the report said. SRC, the report said, believes that government support would raise its annual budget to $100 million from the current $15 million. The report argued, however, that in some areas of research there is a role for federal participation. As an example, the study noted. there was limited research in making ICs from gallium arsenide until 1982, when the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency decided to fund a series of pilot GaAs production lines. This technology, the report said, is likely to get further support because DARPA's work with GaAs is now being funded under the Administration's Strategic Defense Initiative pro gram. The report further noted that the sor program also is preparing to support multiple activities"' in microelectronics re search. '"At present, the programs are being established and funding levels are being debated," OTA noted. Despite the advantages of ICs made from GaAs. OTA said that virtually no experts believe GaAs ICs will usurp the position of silicon for most applications."

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New Scientist 1 May 1986 531 FORUM Star wars: a paradox for our time Whichever way you look at it, star wars doesn't make sense, says Les Allen THE WORLD of disarmament, some would say politics as a whole, is full of paradox if not deceit. Even those who believe in the concept of deterrence agree that a few hundred nuclear warheads on each side would be sufficient to achieve it: yet both great powers possess tens of thou sands of them. Most nuclear disarmers. let alone those inclined to pacifism, view the idea that nuclear weapons are there to keep the peace with a good deal more than a pinch of salt. As the graffiti has it, it is like copulating to preserve virginity. Yet star wars seems especially worthy of an award for the creative use of paradox. President Reagan's celebrated Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) in March 1983, probably made against the wishes of most of his advisers except Edward Teller, was claimed to be precisely that: an initiative. George Keyworth, presidential science adviser, called it ... a top-down speech. A speech that came from the President's heart." Reagan himself, speaking to schoolchildren in Baltimore, said "the hand of providence" inspired the speech. Yet within two years the programme was being presented not as anything new but'as a response to years of Soviet activity and consequently a necessity if the US was to stand any chance of catching up. Yet no one on either side had ever claimed, as would have been entirely logical if such a programme were known to exist, that the USSR was making an initiative for peace, or, indeed, mounting a threat. The fact that Reagan has also spoken of giving the technology to the USSR when it is complete is just one more element of the paradox. Many people have tried to rationalise star wars since Reagan's speech. They argue, for example, that deterrence is unstable and that opponents of star wars are really ingenuous proponents of deter rence who refuse to recognise that this is so. The essentially unstable nature of deter rence is not in doubt but, as any degree of deployment of star wars would be totally destabilising, the paradox of replacing a measure of instabilitv with total instabilitv is not an engaging one. Nor is that a full measure of the paradox. The initiative was to render "nuclear weap ons obsolete" by providing a totally impen etrable umbrella. Yet bv June 1985 Keyworth was saying that "a leaky Les Allen ,s Deputy Rector at North East London Polytechnic. Until recently. he worked on laser physics as a reader at the University of Sussex. dome ... is more than effective enough as a deterrent against first strike-which is our goar, and that "a first strike can only succeed if it destroys essentially all the enemy's retaliatory capability. Otherwise first strike invites horrible retribution." In other words, star wars does not replace unstable deterrence; it will allow deterrence to work. Yet deterrence is supposed to have kept the peace for 40 :years and star wars was devised to replace 1t as a policy. Although star wars is often presented as defensive, any system which could absorb a measure of first strike and then retaliate lends itself, as even Geoffrey Howe, Britain's Foreign Secretary, has realised. to being seen as offensive. The USSR recog nises that star-wars technology would enable the US to make a first strike and then rather effectively mop up 04ragged retaliation" from intercontinental ballistic missiles launched from silos or submarines missed in the onslaught. Yet Reagan, in his original speech. said. even more parad oxically, 04lf defensive systems were paired with offensive systems they could be regarded as fostering an aggressive policy. and nobodv reallv wants that." Reagan's speech, of course. captured the imagination of the American public. The idea of ridding the world of nuclear weap ons and of enabling the US to "intercept and destroy strategic ballistic missiles before they reach our own soil'' was. and is, immensely appealing. Jerome Grossman, president of the Council for a Liveable World, a group of scientists opposed to nuclear weapons, says that all public opin ion polls give positive support for Reagan's stated goals. Americans are inclined to support star wars when it is described as a defensive system. "The US public prefers assured defence to mutually assured destruction. but even more it prefers an agreement which would ban nuclear weapons from space." Margaret Thatcher has argued that Reagan gave her satis factory undertakings concerning the SDI at their meeting in December 1984. However, although it was already clear that the US administration had no intention of honouring three out of four undertakings, Thatcher jumped the gun on her European allies not only by endorsing the programme but by offering to put British scientists at its disposal. In particular. Reagan under took that the deployment of a system related to the SDI would have to be a matter for nego tiation with the Soviet Union as a signatory of the antiballistic missile (ABM) treaty. But on 6 November last year he said } that, if the Soviet Union did not agree to amend the ABM treaty J to permit the deployment of a j space-based defence system, he would go ahead and deploy it anyway. Caspar Weinberger, the US secre tary for defence, has said: .. I am ruling out the possibility of giving up on strategic defence either in the research stage or if it becomes feasible in the deployment stage." For its part, the British government claims that it wants to maintain the ABM treaty and objects to work by the Soviet Union on the Krasnoyarsk phased-array radar system. Meanwhile, it allows Fyli~g dales to be developed and argues that the treaty permits research. Distinguished lawyers, such as Abraham Chayse of Harvard, argue that it does not. The early promise that European indus try would benefit greatly from research for the SDI shows little sign ofrealisation. This is not too surprising: as Grossman has written ( The Politics of Star Wars, Council for a Liveable World, 1986): "Western Europeans may not be bamboozled much longer with promises of lucrative contracts for star-wars technology. Since this is a weapons project, it is by necessity classified and. as Lieutenant-General James Abra hamson [chief of the SDI programme] has said. the allies will only be able to do \ unclassified work." Another paradox comes from the

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154 Ne'w Scientist 1 May 1986 -,--~-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:..-:.-:.-:.-:.-:.-:.-:..-:..-:..-:..-:.-:-:-:..,! ~I __.j .... i argument, very prevalent in the US last summer, that a defensive umbrella will allow a negotiated reduction of nuclear arms. Yet the SDI programme was the major obstacle to progress at the summit meeting in Geneva last November. In any case, as Lawrence Freedman, professor of war studies at King's College, London, has said: "It would be easier to get Soviet agree ment on a straightforward arms reduction than to the construction of a complicated new balance between offensive and defensive systems.,. The paradoxes are not all political: the world of science plays its part too. The scientific lobby against star wars got off to a $Ood start in the US. with many distinguished scientists being associated with it. Unhappily, though, Pitt Rivers's maxim of 1888-.. This is an aiie of science and we should ltsten to the voice of the scientific men; they are our instructors. They see the affairs othe world from a higher stand point than political men who are merely wire-pullers and self interested partisans"-does not stand up very well. Physicist and science writer Jeremy Bernstein, reviewing William Brotl,d's book Star Warriors (Simon and Schuster, 1985) in The New York Times, said that Broad was "not able to find a single scientist,., who would say that a leakproof nuclear umbrella could be built. That matches my own percep tion, except that I do know some who believe that it is .. necessary" to Cati)'.: out a research pro gramme and who have no worries about whether or not research is allowed under the ABM treaty. Yet Abrahamson claims that opposition to star wars among scientists is con fined to a .. few diehards". In fact, some 2500 members of science facul ties, in the US have signed petitions opposing the initiative. A trivial, even banal, paradox in the circumstances is that a prime contender in star wars is an X-ray laser powered by a nuclear explosion. The idea is that the laser could contribute to an invulnerable system as it could be thrown into space only when the need arose. Words of caution in Science last November tried to suggest that tests on the laser had not been as successful as was first thought. But this did not stop Gerold Yonas, chief scientist of the SDI, trying to get additional funds for the project. Nor did this come as any great surprise because, without a nuclear device to provide the energy for the laser, the payload that would have to be "popped" into space would be ten million times heavier. The world might in someway be said to be rid of nuclear weapons, but the same can hardly be said for space or the upper atmosphere. Almost amusing in the context of scientific debate is that, a year or so ago, computer scientists were arguing that it would be intrinsically impossible to construct a testable. workable. computer code for a defensive missile umbrella. My fear has always been that individual devices, particularly laser devices and especially nuclear-pumped ones, could be made to work. But others have argued that this did not much matter as, given dodging, non-cooperating, decoy. proliferating. hardened, fast burn-out boosters, a sustainable defence system would not be achievable. Indeed. Ashton Carter, who prepared a report for Congress's Office of Technology Asses&ment in April 1984, helped by every official organisation in the US, concluded: "The prospect that emerging star-wars tech nology, when further developed, will provide a perfect or near-perfect defense system is so remote that it should not serve as the basis of public expectation or national policy about ballistic missile defense." Last December. however, Charles Seitz and Soloman Buchsbaum, of AT&T Bell Labs, and Danny Cohen, of the University of Southern California, turned the argu ment on its head. Buchsbaum argued that the network as a whole is more reliable than its individual components. To be fair, he did not claim that a totally leak-proof missile-defence system could be built, but he did think that it would be possible to design a system that would be "reliable, robust. and resilient". By building in redundancy, a system could be designed that would, '"like the telecommunications network'", be much more reliable than its components. Seitz, meanwhile, said that although he would not sign a statement opposing or favouring star wars he would sign a statement saying that adequate computer software could be designed. This is not the place for a critical analysis of the rapid way in which the betting odds on the technological options for star wars have changed over the past two years. Space-based chemical and excimer lasers. for example. considered hot-favourites a yea~ or so ago, are thought to have blown their followl:rs' money in the ante-post stakes. But m th~ ~pirit of paradox. it is worth quoting W1lham Sweet. of Phvsics Today, who made the following remark on the development of an antisatellite weap ons system (ASA T): .. It would be quite an irony if the weapons type that was generally thought of as the nation's future ASA T -infrared homing vehicles based on Earth-instead turned out to be based in space as the nation's principal ABM system, and the tech nology that was generallv thought of as the basis for star wars-lasers based in space -turned out to be based on Earth as the nation's principal ASAT." Perhaps the most savage paradox is that those who argue that research is necessary and permissable, but who oppose deployment, may not be able to do anything to stop deployment if the research is successful. If that happens, the ABM treaty will be in ribbons and destabilisation inevitable. As Grossman puts it: .. Anyone who has studied the ineffectual effects of Leo Szilard, James Franck and Albert Einstein to prevent the atomic bombing of Hiroshima can have little hope that a decisive weapon that works will not be deployed." Yet quite a number of government scientists in the US take the inconsistent view that a workable system is not possible, but that research should be carried out while deployment should not be allowed. I was a good deal less than popular when I attacked this stand point as naive at a Pugwash Symposium last December. The biggest paradox of all, however, is that of the image of Reagan as a peacenik. It was precisely Reagan's fear of the peace movement that led him to hijack its rhet oric and present his initiative in terms of defence and the abolition of nuclear weapons. Sadly, nothing that has come out of it since has been of much value to the real peace lobby, let alone the prospect of arms reduction as a route to peace. Patrick Wall, the MP for Beverley, contributed to the debate about star wars in the House of Commons in February. He spoke of "a small nuclear generator which produces the laser" and of "radar particle beams". In the first case. he meant a nuclear explosion, while in the second case he was talking scientific hogwash. The paradox here, or do I mean irony, is that I know a lot about lasers, and have followed the star wars issue closely since its inception. but did not speak in the debate because I got wiped out by Nicholas Soames when I stood as a Labour candidate for Crawley at the last general election. A rotten world. the world of paradox. O

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SCIENCE TRENDS UASHIHGTON, DC WEEKLY MAA/24/l.9BG Bv1_@J..E.~ Volume LV, Number 1 SUPERCOMPUTERS: POLICY ISSUES March 24, 1986 Rapid growth in Federal supercomputer programs can cause "critical" shortages of trained personnel to manage and operate new centers. Application software for new machines is also in short supply. The findings come in a new Congressional Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) study which cautions that such problems are likely to multiply as development shifts to new superfast "parallel" computers in which many processors work simultaneously. (Science Trends, August 1985.) Federal agencies involved in supercomputer programs tend to focus on specific mission requirements, legislators were told, indicating "a need for enhanced coordination of these efforts to ensure that national goals are realized." OTA also calls attention to the government's emphasis on funding research, rather than prototype development, as an issue of concern to scientists, researchers and government officials. There should be a White House panel, the study finds, to assist in determining if current Federal efforts are sufficient to develop and support new experimental technologies, and identify the "next" steps to transfer research results to utilization. In addition, OTA advisers are recommending greater investment in algorithms and software development, noting concerns that researchers may avoid using supercomputers if they prove "difficult to learn, frustrating and generally inconvenient." OTA notes that "at least over the short term, limited human resources will be a critical factor in the success of the supercomputer programs." Demand "will be particularly heavy in the areas of applications software design and development, and this can only worsen as significantly different architectures proliferate." In its study, now available, OTA also focuses on proposals to employ advanced computers in a national research network, such as the NSFnet proposed by the National Science Foundation. That would require closer coordination, OTA suggests, citing the "proliferation of government and private networks, many of which use a variety of technologies, standards, and protocols ... (Supercomputers: Government Plans & Policies, S/N 052-003-01032-l, available in the near future at $1 from Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing Office, Wash., DC 20402. For further information, contact Congress of the US, OTA, Wash., DC 20510. Telephone: 202/224-8996.)

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MODI REPORTS CHEVY CHASE, MD WEEKL'f 1!1N 7. l 98h llf/4{il:J,G CALIFORNIA HAS EIGHT LITHOTRIPTORS; 26 STATES HAVE NONE, OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT REPORTS; DORNIER MAY ALREADY HAVE CORNERED THE MARKET, OTA SAYS c,,7 V California' has the most extracorporeal shock wave lithotriptors instal!,d of all 50 states, with eight units in place at the end of 1985, according to a new report by the Office of Technology ..,._....... .... Assessment. The report, entitled "Effects of Federal Policies on Extracorporeal Shock Wave Lithotripsy," indicates that distribution of lithotriptors is uneven while 26 states did not have a single lithotriptor in operation by the end of 1985, 13 states already had more than one. In addition, all eight of the California units are located in urban areas. While the congressional research arm does not provide its own projection of how many lithotriptors would efficiently serve the U.S. population, OT A says industry representatives predict the maximum number of litho triptors needed is between 17 and 175, while Blue Cross/Blue Shield cal culates the number to be about 50 units. If the Blue Cross/Blue Shield estimate of lithotriptors need is accurate, Dornier Medical Systems the West German firm that markets the only FDA-approved lithotriptor in the U.S. already may have cornered the market, the report suggests. According to OT A, Dor'nier already had installed 50 lithotriptors by the end of 1985 and had plans to install another 50 by the end of 1986. : At a recent business seminar on the urology and gastroenterology markets, Dornier Vice President for Sales and Marketing Edward Gustitus said the firm has placed 74 lirhotriptors in the U.S. and Canada to date. A total of 150 systems have been installed worldwide.

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RADIO CLIPS DATE TIME STATION LOCATION PROGRAM 75 EAST '-IORTHF/ELO ROAD LIVINGSTON NEW JERSEY 07039 201, 992-6600 1800) 631-1160 June 17, 1986 11:07 AM WINS AM 1010 New York City Medical Report William Heinz reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 10/6297Y If you've been wondering about a new non-surgical treatment for kidney stones, you'll be happy to know that a government research agency has given the treatment high marks for both safety and economy. The treatment is called lythotritsy. It works by pinging sound waves against little calcifications that build up in the kidneys and cause such excruciating pains when they're passed through the urine. The Off ice of Technology Assessment. an agency of Congress, has reported after due inquiry, the lythotritsy is safer, cheaper and more effective for most stones than traditional surgery. Because there are no incisions involved, surgical complications are avoided, and because hospitalization is shorter, costs are lower, even taking into account the high price of the lythotritsy machine, itself. 134 Words 11 Clips

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MEDICAL PRODUCTS SALES NORTHFIELD, Ill. MONTHLY 15.000 MAY 198fi BuR/fE.LtE'S Dialysis device reuse termed a 'medical practice issue' WASHING10N The Health Care Financing label t~e filters, bl~d}ines and other devices Administration (HCFA) says it's up to a patient's "For Sm~le Us\? y.an John Heinz (R-PA) th di bl hemodialysis deCommittee c airm physician whe er sposa e opened the hearing by charging that reuse "exvices can approp1;ately be ~use?". kn poses tens of thousands of dialysis patients to The Administration made its opm1on o~ dangerous and unnecessary risks. Over 85% of at a recent hearing called by the Senate Speci 1 disinfect dialysis devices with forA A four month investigareuse c mies Committee on gmg. ban maldehyde, a potent toxin known to cause can tion. by panel staffers found tl_iat more t liver danta e and destruction of red blood 60% of dialysis clinics reuse filters up to 30 cel'.11 Re .d gleft behind in a 'sterilized' dd" inf th with ce s. s1 ue times, flushing out an _is ect~gb em lin dialyser leaches out into the patient's blood chemical solutions. Medicare reim urses c Continw:d on page 59. ics based on one-time usages. Manufacturers Dialysis device-reuse The HCFA spokesman pointed to a 1982 study commissioned by the Na tional Institutes of Health, which found that reuse is safe and effective, assum ing that proper cleaning methods are employed. He said those results have been supponed by other health profes sionals, including those who attended the 1984 International Conference on Disposable Medical Devices. bling of a brewing debate over one of Medicare's fastest growing benefit pro grams. The End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) benefit went into effect in July 1973. During its first full year, Medi care expenditures for 16,000 benefi ciaries totaled $250 million. During 1984, more than 78,000 patients received dialysis treatments and another 7,000 received renal transplants at a cost of over $1.8 billion. D From page 1. --p. stream, silently contaminating the clean blood." Heinz cited an Office of Technology Assessment study showing that clinics pocket about $80 million per year in savings from the reuse. He remarked, "Simple greed gives binh to 'standard practice' and one of modem medicine's greatest achievements for life emerges as a machine of suffering and even death. Given the risks, it is unconscionable that some dialysis clinics actual-ly to blackmail patients into reuse, threatening to end treatment if they re-fuse to submit. With ghoulish greed, clinics pocket the profits and let the pa-tient be damned:' Responding for HCFA, acting depu ty administrator Banlett S. Fleming said current policies reflect a proper "hands off" posture for the govern ment. "At the present time, we believe the question of reuse of dialyzers and other disposable hemodialysis devices to be a medical practice issue which should be decided by the patient's phy sician:' Fleming stated. "Our current reimbursement meth odology does encourage facilities to operate more efficiently, which in some facilities may prompt an increase in the reuse of disposable hemodialysis devices. However, the decision to reuse should not take place until the physi cian first determines that it is medically appropriate for his or her patient." The Senate hearing was the first bub-

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RADIO CLIPS DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM DATE TIME NETWORK PROGRAM 75 EAST NORTHFtELO AVENUE I LIVINGSTON NEW JERSEY 07039 (201) 992-6600 I /212) 22 7-55 70 I (800) 631-1160 May 28, 1986 2:00-2:05 AM MT NBC News Don Alexander reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 10/6297 Y Another finger pointed at smoking as a health hazard to innocent by-breathers, this time the study conducted by the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment. It's conclusion; non-smokers about twice as likely to come down with lung cancer if regularly exposed to tobacco smoke. Don Alexander, NBC News. May 28, 1986 11:00-11:05 AM MT NBC News Cameron Swayze reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 10/6297 Y That smoker next to you could be giving you lung cancer; that's the conclusion of a survey by the Congressional Off ice of Technology Assessment. The off ice says that although it is not absolute, the evidence is that people who breathe second-hand cigarette smoke, passive smoke, as its called, run twice the risk of non-smokers who are not exposed of getting lung cancer. This is NBC News. May 28, 1986 4:00-4:05 AM MT NBC News Gary Nunn reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 10/6297 Y Non-smokers are about twice as likely to get lung cancer if they are exposed regularly to tobacco smoke. Research done for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment concludes those who work or live with smokers also have more eye irritation, problems with nasal membranes, more headaches, and more coughs than non-smokers who are not exposed to smoke. 51 Words 4 Clips

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iXIre Nrm lJnrk iimu NEW YORK, N.Y. 0, 934,530 SUN, 1.553,720 SAT, 731.545 JUN 22 1986 Buw1.J..1?$ I The F. T.C. Took R.J. Reyno Washington Bears Down on Smoking ... 7 -' =---( '/ By IRVIN MOLOTSKY WASHINGTON SINCE June 1, recruits arriv ingattheArmybaseinFort Jackson, S.C., have been told that they must abide not only by the traditional rules regulating the length of their hair and the hours they keep, but also by a new one: For the two months of their basic training, they are not allowed to smoke. Anticipating the recently an nounced Army curbs on smflking that will go Into effect July 7, Ma). Gen. Robert Solomon, the base's commanding officer, instituted his own rules, barring tobacco use entirely for recruits and limiting it sub stantially for the 23,000 military and civilian persoMel stationed there. Fort Jackson and the Army are marching to a dram that seems to grow louder each day an anti smoking movement that began at the grass roots and In the last two years has worked up through the states to the Federal Government. Washing ton has responded in several ways: In an important challenge, the Federal Trade Commission charged last week that the R. J. Reynolds To bacco Company had illegally mmrepresented and understated the health risks of smoking in its adver tisements. The ads, the agency said, misUsed a National Institutes of Health study in arguing that a link /"\. r between cigarettes and heart disease --______ ...;.,.__,=,,,.,,, was an "opinion," not "scientific fact." Reynolds defended the ads and said the charge constituted a threat to its freedom of speech. The Office of Technology Assess ment, a Congressiona1 agency, repoffl!I!' recently that "a large majority of the U .s. population believes smokers should refrain from smok ing in the presence of nonsmokers and that employers should limit smoking to designated areas." The report was compiled at the req\181Jt of Senator Ted Stevens, Republican of Alaska, who has introduced legisla-. tion, modeled on an Alaska state law, that would require no-smoking areas in all Federal buildings. A similar bill has been intro duced in the House of Representa tives by James H. Scheuer, Democrat of Queens, and Don Ritter, Republican of Pennsylvania. Dr. C. Everett Koop, the Surgeon General, who supports the bill, said it would be helped by the Army's "coura geous" action. The Gerferal Services Adminis tration, which runs about a third of the buildings that house Government executive agencies, has independently proposed regulations on smok ing In its facilities. ( THE HOUSTON POST HOUSTON,TX D. 326,556 SUN. 376,015 CiAT. 1n.noo \,l~Y 28 1986 Bu~~ New study underscores non-smoker canc!r risks "a.."1 WASHING N (Reuter) Scientific evidence shows that nonsmokers run about twice the risk of lwig cancer if they are regularly exposed to tobacco smoke, ac cording to a report released Tues day by a congressional agency. The non-partisan Congressional of Tecbnolo~ ~ent. (OTA) sata those WO worri or llve with smokers also have more irri tation of the eyes and nasal mem branes, more headaches and more coughs than non-smokers who are not exposed to smoke. The agency said none of the sci entific studies it surveyed is con clusive but given the Jarge number of people involved even a small increase in the risk would be im portant. "Despite the remaining uncertainties, the data are sufficient to warrant concern,'' it said. The report was prepared for Sen; Ted Stevens, who bad asked the agency to compile a survey of recent health studies of ~ailed "passive smoking," secondary smoke inhaled by non-smokers. Stevens, R-Alaska, has introduced legislation that would restrict smoking to designated areas in all federal buildings.

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t;UIVIMERCE NEW YORK, NY 0, 20,975 APR 11 19 86 /JJ!.i/?E~~FS 1Biiftte0B11 tao -.:~,.A ~aiices>~11f~d : :.:a,F ~. iy' ,if'~~ .. ft .. fflf~.' ,"' '.. ,.,_ '>,' lil -_;,,.#~''' ... J~-, .: .. -J;I .:.J>~ gn~ti~ that de~t .~P~tatj.y,s in acadelnia_.Jndus--. ,;-~~.:= ~S!>in~ ~,~i~v ~ibl t 'lpdl"!~gfi:t~;~~~1;~re~~-: clu~; Uik'm(f54t'~b:lo ',1Ailessti11~,-. 0 -.. ,, .. ; 86 I! fo ,:flniiieinl)m:1.:;i.1rs:eNatfo-' ~.~cieib~~ ..:.~~~'lil"!'!!"'-;,;.-,IU'-'llU:r-.,,, allo~_andtwo~~ .: Sh J,(ecluioJogy ce, a ; d:~),-,'ot:'Sclences!):,i~d Academyl,fAF.nt" ~biveotl .,.-ed1as teclpi.;.:.t!i'<"edsto--J.a:-;1U.:$;.c).tizen ~group from: neering;.>~,-' -it., .c-~--~inS11of1,tli~ awatds 'Ior.'oittsf-~tidlng'l~f: mdostfE' f';.. 'dem'ia vemment; -, ', --~ '",;\.; !';ti,~~' -~. o~,:.-Jfi, --~1.,~:i:::.;,,.:...,,..,R:.'.;._t:;-'_..,~~--:-. -, ..... ,...., ,-,-j.,J. ,, trib to:th 'b'~, ,-. "-'~i_.;was1Jl.,difficul "r,-.the .. .. ..... en1.:1w':D10u:cun01ugy. ... -';'"~&vruv, u e ..,..,. !, '~ ;;-:-,~,.}'.' .-,"I, _,--,,:TJif?'p~nsistm~iof'a $2,000"1;.tteclmol ~. unit 11 be .. ,.,, \,ad~ey,.~~-to aelec: e,~ei:s 11\VardpfufaiS.,utien"-~ Ameii->:.''.,-ented to:t:JieiU.S.: Offi Tee=:,, ~_.b~tJ~ne,,[!tijch,'!as ~~ely. -~ti-,~ ->~an~,eagle,-?~Ufbi'tawif;ded nw-.;1 a Asie:ssment~-, .. ', '"'"' ;-!~~ ~,.~~_feenl ,tljat,~er~J1 day May 1.c:hirlng:Blo'R-rM186 '1'he'r ''I i-1Accordmg'-to the a ry board u10 ology~~ we represented b:,:,: ,,. ..;.' eo' ~:..!!Lt-~ ::;:-~"'.'-ustrt' ,. <&1.' OT the award winners," Mr. Zaborslty -.n.u~erican _, :tf,"lnd_ ~/. Lile Jn~Ntllan.other _office, \'.said.'1'.}\-1 -'. ;. '.':r 3--,.J.,.; u:.dj,1,n~ Cooferen~'&!,Eipc>sition-;on B1oteclt-_'--, agency: OZ-.tdepai:tmeot'with1n 1the ;l,n1 ;.; .,.,,, ,,.:-,t _,.~;ri-~ ~~::.., -;;.,-4', \ no1ogy[. ,J.J :ton.:f,1:1i~1t ~i:,.w~.:.t.i,, ;;-~~,,,J'.i, -Slftf_f.!f, i-?:-,;i:;11. ~1,:-3.1,.:.: ;1-:,:"'

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TIMES & WORLO-NEWS EVENING 47.:lnfl M.AY 6 1986 /JU!J/?EU.E'S A )up,r~~cret at the-Pentag0,~,noP''" THE WALL STREET Journal's headline calls about how that could come about. ..... it "The Ultimate Secret: A Pentagon Report Blair himself isn't talking about the contents of I~ Author Can't See." Thereby hangs a tale of the repart: But he w~n~ given access to any ~enta::. w_ell,-not intrigue necesarily, but of suspense and gon files tn prepanng 1t. ~e drew upon his o~n not a little frustration. Maybe some stupidity as knowledge; that, of course, mcluded top-secret m well: ... formation, and the report originally was intended The story started about two years ago, when to be seen only by others who had equally high Congress asked its Office of Technology:. Assesssecurity clearance. Now the Pentagon decides ment for a study on nuclear decapitaffon.-That is that's too many. one 01.ihose arcane strategical terms; it refers to Whatever's in the report can't be much news to an enemy's opportunities to disrupt or shut down the Kremlin and its top brass. For more than 20 communications systems on which the president years, the U.S. military has known about the damdepeec:IY for early warnings of attacks and for age to communications that can be done by EMP, keeping in touch with military leaders during a or electromagnetic pulse. This effect can be creat crisis. ed by nuclear explosions in the atmosphere, and the To do this study, OTA picked Bruce Blair, who is known around Washington as the leading expert on .nuclear decapitation. Among other things, he's worked with the Pentagon to help design safeguards against disruption of communications. So his knowledge and ability are highly respected. :Bt.r's study for OTA bad been completed before-the Pentagon realized what was up. A mem ber of the outside advisory panel reviewing his report for OTA chanced upon Gen. John Vessey, then chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, at a cocktail party and mentioned the report to him. An aide-to,: the general obtained a copy from OT A for revi~~ The next thing OT A knew, the Blair report had been d~lared supersecret, and the Pentagon had corraled all available copies. Members of Congress who requested the study can't see the report. Neither can Blair, who wrote it but who has only a top-secret clearance. The report has been stamped SIOP-ESI, for "Single Integrated Operation Plan Extremely Sensitive Information." Privileged to see such documents are the pres ident, the secretary of defense, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the deputy secretary of defense. Maybe one) or two others in the top eche lons of the Pentagon. Doubtless the information is sensitive. The mell' fJct of its be~'llg declared supersecret implies that. it:says the president and his top strategists could lose their eyes and ears rather quickly in time of all-out war. Probably it goes into some detail result is to melt electronic components on the ground. Even cars won't start. A nation that loses its ability to communicate over long distances is virtually helpless. Its leaders don't'know just where an attack is coming from and where to retaliate. They aren't able to order a counterattack; even if they could, maybe land based missiles can't be fired. Any initiatives are up to commanders in the field or at sea, and they might not know a war's on or, if they did, when it was over. What's so sensitive about the Blair report? Maybe it tells where vital communications systems are most vulnerable. Probably it also tells how much, or how little, the Pentagon has done to guard against disruption. Evidence for the latter assumption is in the fact that Blair, who had helped design a more secure command and control base for the president and military leaders, was supposed to help design i still another one. Now, he says, top-ranked officials tell him that his chances of getting that job are "nil to slim." He feels that the fuss over the report has made him an outcast with the defense department. Stamping something secret can protect national security. It can also protect somebody's rump. This may well involve a case of complacency if not neglect regarding bedrock national-security considerations. Those whose careers or reputations i might suffer should not be allowed to contro\1 the relevant information. There are qualified and fOD-' scientious people in Congress with a need anG'I responsibility to know. I / )-

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' ,J PROGRESSIVE HAOISOH, UI MONTHLY MAV/01/1986 / --NOCoMMENT Representative Fred May, a member of the Wash ington state legislature, proposed a 6 per cent sales tax on toilet tissue to pay for cleanup of the state's polluted waters. Representative Ren Taylor coun tered that it might be a better idea to impose a charge per flush. Frontier Justice In Dickinson, Texas, Municipal Judge Carlton Getty fined a high-school junior $250 for leading eight fellow students in a hallway sit-in protesting a locked restroom. "The days of civil disobedience are past," the judge said. "They are not acceptable any longer." I~ an Ill Wind. From an advertisement for a tear-gas dispenser called Paralyzer, manufactured by United Defense Industries, Inc .. of Phoenix, Arizona: "Now Crime Pays You! Paralyzer stops a 300-lb. attacker, sells fast all over town! Soaring crime has aroused fear in millions everywhere, creating a fantastic market for ~emarkable Paralyzer .... Bum Before Reading Military expert Bruce Blair, commissioned by the Congressional Office of Technology AssessmeJ:l!JO study the command, control, and communications system for nuclear war, had his report classified as EXTREMEL y SENSITIVE by the Pentagon. Blair, who is merely cleared for TOP SECRET information. is no longer allowed to see his own report. Crime and Punishment John Vollman, a Miami police academy consultant. told the Southern Conference on Corrections in Tallahassee, Florida, that rapists should be chem ically castrated and murderers should be loboto mized with lasers in states that do not impose cap ital punishment. Bravery Under Fire Members of the Air Force's 501st Security Police Group. which guards the U.S. air base at Greenham Common in Britain. received a letter from head quarters commending them on "an outstanding year" that included arrests of peacewomen." The letter noted with pride, "We hit one peace woman with a vehicle." Do I Hear a Waltz? Elizabeth Gardner. a psychology professor at Fair field University in Connecticut, reported that the average diner takes 3.23 bites per minute when there is no background music, 3.83 bites when slow music is playing, and 4.4 bites when there is fast-tempo STUART GOLDN8ERG music. 14 / MAY 1986 Voice of Authority Syndicated columnist William F. Buckley Jr., com menting on developments in the Philippines: "Democracy, particularly in its currently accepted, fanatical application (one-man. one-vote) is nothing more than a Western superstition .... We have im perial responsibilities in the W estem Pacific that have nothing whatever to do with civic progress in that country." EnGarclel Richard M. Nixon has been elected to associate membership in the French Academie des Beaux Arts, entitling him to wear the official uniform, hat. and sword. Not with a Bang but a Whimper Cable News Network has reportedly prepared a Doomsday Tape to be telecast in the final minutes before the world is destroyed by nuclear war. It includes a couple of choruses of the hymn Nearer M.v God to Thee. Notto Worry From a dispatch datelined Paris in The New York Times: "Under the terms of a new military coop eration pact ... France promised to consult West Germany before using its tactical nuclear weapons on German soil .... More Good News James Greene, a spokesman for the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, acknowledges that permis sible levels of radiation in spices do leave a radio active residue. but insists there is no health problem because "spices make up such a small part of the average person's daily diet." Judicial Temperament Jefferson B. Sessions III. a Reagan Administration nominee for a Federal district judgeship, when asked at a Senate confi~ation hearing whether he had referred to the NAACP and ihe ACLU as "unAmerican" organizations and "communists," re plied: "I don't recall saying that. I'm often loose with my tongue. I may have said something about the NAACP being un-American or communist, but I meant no harm by it." Another Reagan judgeship nominee, Eric G. Bruggink, once urged that The Diary of Anne Frank be barred from Alabama schools as "most depressing" and that Henrik Ib sen's A Doll's House be excluded for its "radical feminism." Readers are invited to submit No Comment items. Please send original dippings or photocopies and give name and date of publication. Submissions can not be acknowledged or returned. I


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