Citation
OTA Management Retreat

Material Information

Title:
OTA Management Retreat
Creator:
Naismith, Nancy
Publisher:
U.S. Congress. Office of Technology Assessment
Publication Date:
Language:
English

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Planning Manual ( LIV )
Genre:
federal government publication ( marcgt )
Spatial Coverage:
Washington, D.C.

Notes

General Note:
The agenda for the 1985 senior management retreat including OTA staff suggestion memos and other documentation.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of North Texas
Holding Location:
University of North Texas
Rights Management:
This item is a work of the U.S. federal government and not subject to copyright pursuant to 17 U.S.C. §105.

Aggregation Information

IUF:
University of Florida
OTA:
Office of Technology Assessment

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OCTOBER 31 NOVEMBER 1~ 1985 RocKVILLE Crvrc CENTER

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_-p,tl!s,,,,. ---~:': '~ :~, .. -~ ,. '\ ;~-, :,::::., ,:"'~STAFF MEMO October 21, 1985 To: lfBil: Subject: Nancy Naismith, Larry Miike, and Alan Crane Esll ggelf!on Co&iffee Survey Responses REPORT OVERVIEW GENERAL ORGANIZATION In this memo, we organize and summarize OTA staff responses to the staff suggestion form. The responses are divided into four categories: Category 1. Category 2. Category 3. Category 4. Daily operations and administration (YELLOW), Quality of work life (ORANGE), The assessment process and carrying out OTA's mission (BWE), and Other comments (GREEN). In addition, we have organized the responses in each category into the topics addressed. In most but not all cases, the topics covered are the same as the examples provided on the survey form. CONSIDERATIONS FOR INTERPRETING THE RESPONSES Based on our review of the responses, we offer several observations that we believe are important for analyzing and interpreting the results. First, OTA staff were asked to respond to open-ended questions. Thus, the fact that only a few staff commented on a particular issue does not necessarily imply that the issue is not of importance to other staff. In other words, the value of a comment cannot be measured simply by the frequency with which it occurs. While a large number of comments on a particular topic might well indicate a relatively widespread concern, a small number --even a single comment --does Mt necessarily mean that that concern is any less important. The absense of comments on a particular topic (e.g. the Performance Evaluation process, requisitions, the Publishing Office) should also not be interpreted as a lack of concern. Because comments tend to address the topics. offered as examples on the survey form, the examples themselves. may }ULVe influenced an individual's ultimate choice of topics. In general, further investigation will be required to assess accurately the agency-wide importance of any concern. i

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Secondly, because of the way in which responses were submitted, it is not possible to tabulate the exact number of staff who participated. However, we do know that: responses were not received from all staff; not all responding staff chose to address each of the above four categories; and some respondents chose to provide more than one comment per category or topic. An approximate breakdown of responses is: Category 1. (YELLOW) Category 2. (ORANGE) Category 3. (BLUE) Category 4. (GREEN) # of respondents/ responses (number of pages received) 40 46 29 18 # of suggestions (total number of individual comments) 67 84 59 23 Third, because the survey does not provide accurate information about how widespread or important any concern is, other types of criteria (e.g., not frequency-or consensus-oriented) will be required for evaluating the responses. PRESENTATION OF SURVEY RESPONSES For each category of response, the following types of information are provided below: 1. the number of total respondents/responses and comments, 2. a listing of the topics covered, 3. an overview statement about the types of responses received (identifies the most common or intensely-held views), and 4. a summary of the comments made, by topic. Unless otherwise indicated, only one comment was received on a particular topic. In addition, some similar comments were submitted to more than one category; Appendix A lists the key areas of overlap. Appendix B synthesizes and organizes all comments received in all categories by topic. All submitted comments have been included in this presentation. (Colllllents were received until the close-of-business Wednesday, October 16, :t.985). While we have combined and interpreted them for this report, we believe that the :-. comments speak for themselves. We urge you to refer to the original responss-~'to appreciate fully the richness of the staff's contribution to this exercise." A notebook containing the original responses has been compiled. The notebook should be referred to directly for additional information. ii

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TABLE OF CONTENTS FOR THIS REPORT Report Overview i General Organization i Considerations for Interpreting the Responses i Presentation of Survey Responses ii Table of Contents for this Report iii Category I. Daily Operations and Administration 1-1 Overview 1-1 Listing of Topics and Summary of Comments 1-2 Category II. Quality of Work Life 2-1 Overview 2 -1 Listing of Topics and Summary of Comments 2-2 Category III. The Assessment Process and Carrying Out OTA's Mission 3-1 Overview 3-1 Listing of Topics and Summary of Comments 3-3 Category IV. Other Comments 4-1 Overview 4-1 Listing of Topics and Summary of Comments 4-1 Appendix A. Areas of Overlap A-1 Appendix B. Synthesis of All Comments by Topic B-1 iii

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Thursday, October 31 about 3:30 p.m. 4:00 p.m. 6:30 p.m. 8:00 p.m. : Friday, November 1 8:30 a.m. 9:00 a.m. 1::00 p.m. 4:00 p.m. 6:30 p.m. 8:00 p.m. Agenda .. Senior Managellient R.etteat l~ll5 Leave OTA for Pdtowmack Landing Restaurant; Wasliington $ailing Marina Discussion of OTA staff suggestions and actions to oe taken in response. Discussion leaders.: Nancy Naismith, Alan Crane, Larry Miike Staff suggestion memo prepared by Staff Suggestion Committee: Paula Stone (Chair); Boo Cook-Deegan,-Martha Dexter, Wendell Fletcher, and Marslia Williams} Refresliments an:d dinner Informal di.scus-sion C~ffee, juice and doughnuts available in Rockyille Civic Center Coffee throughout the morning Part I of ''Where is Technology Heading?: Implications for OTA" Discussion leaders: Clyde Behney, Henry Kelly, Dick_ Row6erg, and Rick Weingarten)' ,,. \ Lunch and free tillie -recreation, informal discussions background reading Part II of ''Where is Technology Heading Discussion of program charters, coveting such questions as: Are there important gaps? Unproduct'ive : overlaps? Any likely increasing/decreasing fields? Any likely impact of changes in Congress' rol_e? (e.g., budget cutting ratlier than starting new programs). Refresliments and dirtner Wrapup Adjourn

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Oceans and Environment Program This Program has responsibility for all ocean-related questions, including ocean resources and maritime policy, and for large-scale environmental issues such as climate modification and water pollution. The body of work generated over the years has firmly established the Program as a principal resource for the Congress in these areas. Continuing requests for assistance in maritime policy (cargo issues, shipbuilding, etc.) and resource utilization of the oceans (waste disposal, fisheries, offshore oil and gas, etc.) are expected. As a result of changing Congressional interests, the Program has developed capability for analyzing the difficult questions in which the overriding concern lies with the environmental effects of decisions. While many studies in O&E and other programs include a section on the environmental impacts of technology-based decisions (for example, wetlands), this program is responsible for those questions in which environmental concerns themselves predominate. The complex nature of these questions, and the uncertainty that often surrounds data, generate situations in which the Congress particularly needs the objective and expert contribution that OTA can make. The major examples of this type of project during recent years have been studies on disposal of radioactive waste, acid rain and groundwater contamination. Work.that is anticipated over the near term includes study of a varitety of "non-point source" pollution questions' including the effects on bays and estuaries of such non-point sources as pesticides applied for agriculture purposes and soil run-off associated with development activities. The work of the Program usually falls under one of five basic categories: federal services, natural resources, pollution control, marine industry and large-scale environmental issues. Studies under the federal services heading most often are concerned with problems in which the Federal Government is the major actor. For example, the Federal Government has a major role in the collection of environmental data, and the Program is currently contemplating a study to consider both the quality and quantity of information that is being gathered, and the way in which it is interpreted and used. Assessments related to natural resource issues have most often been concerned with ocean resources such as offshore oil and gas and fisheries. An assessment of Antarctica, which is now under consideration, would focus on the natural resources of that Continent. Work in the pollution control area has been extensive and varied in recent years and includes assessments of nuclear waste, groundwater contamination, acid rain and ocean disposal of waste. Currently, the Program is considering a number of studies in this category, including deliberate release of genetically engineered organisms, the health of the Nation's rivers, bays and estuaries and hazardous air pollution.

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Assessments concerned with the marine industry have been limited to the recent report on maritime trade. Under consideration is an assessment of international competitiveness of ocean technologies. To date, the Program has not done assessments related to the global environment but a study of potential climatic change is being considered. 7 9 8 5

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-,,,,-'~"'+,. .. ...... --~--.', .'. ; \;,,;,~_,,.,/ STAFF MEMO To: John Andelin From: Bob Niblock Oct. 22, 1985Attached are the list of the potential projects, which were requested from each program for the senior management retreat. There are five proposed projects from this program and they are: 1. Non-Point Source Pollution and the Health of the Nation's Surface Waters 2. Technologies to Provide Potable Water to the Nation 3. Responding to Natural Disasters 4. Household Toxics 5. Environmental Protection from Federal Facilities In addi.tion, there is one project proposal for consideration by another program. It is: "The Right-To-Know and Its Implications for Improving Public Health."

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Project: jrm Oceans and Environment Program October 22, 1985 TITLE: NON-POINT SOURCE POLLUTION AND THE HEALTH OF THE NATION'S SURFACE WATERS. DESCRIPTION: We now have some information on hand that supports a previously intuitive position: non-point sources are the primary contributor of conventional pollutants and a major contributor of some toxic pollutants (some metals, pesticides) to surface waters. There has been little attempt at the Federal level to address this problem, in part because management of non-point sources is linked with the politically difficult land use issues. RELEVANCE: The O&E program has addressed numerous point source issues and has a great deal of background and information on matters related to this study. Non-point source pollution is a pervasive problem throughout the country, but it is the one major piece of the water pollution puzzle that really hasn't been addressed. Because the problem cuts across numerous Congressional jurisdictions, specia~ care would be required in developing the proposal in conjunction with potential clients. Recent interest expressed by the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee in having OTA broaden the perspective of its environmental work may provide impetus for this effort. TITLE: TECHNOLOGIES TO PROVIDE POTABLE WATER TO THE NATION DESCRIPTION: The Nation's drinking water supplies are beset with problems of quality, quantity and distribution. It is no longer unusual for municipal and private water supplies to be condemned or depleted. In addition, the quality of many supplies is less than desirable because of antiquated delivery systems and chemicals used to treat the water. In many instances, water is only tested at the source and not at the point of use, which creates uncertainty on the part of the users. Oftentimes, the public perceives a problem even though there is none and in other cases there are undetected problems because of the lack of funds or proper technology. In response to the above concerns, citizens are turning to alternative water sources and as a result, the bottled and bulkwater industries are expanding rapidly. Also, products to improve water quality at the point of use are flooding the market. Shortages of water are the result of demographic shifts, contamination, mining of aquifers and natural and anthropogenic induced catastrophes. We need to assess the emergency preparedness systems in place to meet losses of major water sources via dam breaks, severe climate and weather episodes, terrorist sabotage and over-adjudication of water. Are there back-up systems available to provide drinking water for large municipalities if their present supply is cut off? -1-

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Project:jrm Oceans and Environment Program October 22, 1985 The problems are being met on both a micro and macro scale. At the micro level the public is purchasing bottled and bulk-delivered water, point-of-use clean-up appliances, such as filters, reverse osmosis, resin exchange and distillers, or avoiding water and drinking more soda, wine and beer. How well regulated are these industries? Have quality standards been st for the water they provide? On the macro level, new technology is not emerging to restore contaminated water supplies, to provide large scale desalination, or to recharge aquifers. What efforts are being made in conservation, trans-basin conservation and redesigning the institutions that have controlled the distribution and use of water in the West? RELEVANCE: The immediacy of the problem is supported by recent OTA reports on groundwater, the arid West and others. The long-term global significance is reinforced by the fact that finite fresh water supplies are needed to support infinite population growth. The problem is global and already at disaster level in many LDCs. The results of the study an provide direction to divert a water crisis, which many are predicting, will be worse than the recent oil crisis. TITLE: RESPONDING TO NATURAL DISASTERS DESCRIPTION: Different areas of the U.S. face a range of different natural phenomena that result in large amounts of damage to both private and public property as well as natural resources. These include flooding from annual snow melts or dam breaks, hurricanes and tornadoes, forest ffres, tsunamis, earthquakes, mudslides, insect destruction, etc. In many cases one disaster will lead to other disasters. For example, fires in southern California often destroy significant amounts of vegetation in mountainous terrain which is then left vulnerable to mudslides and flooding. Earthquakes can generate tsunamis. Federal, state, and local governments are all involved in varying degrees in efforts to predict these natural disasters and to respond to them after they occur. For example, the Federal Government not only supports research and predictive services, but also provides disaster insurance and natural disasters (e.g., tornadoes), it should be relatively easy to predict and avoid others (e.g., dam failures). Yet, the easily predictable disasters continue to occur. One of the key issues of this study is whether the losses associated by different disasters could be avoided with additional funding for research and a better early warning system. RELEVANCE: Considering the fact that natural disasters know no state boundaries and cost the public and Federal Government billions of dollars annually, there should be great Congressional interest in a study of this sort. While GAO has studied some individual programs, there could be important findings about all government efforts that would only be evident through a broader study that addresses non-Federal programs as well. The results of this study could also have great relevance to other countries of the world that deal with natural disasters. -2-

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Project:jrm TITLE: HOUSEHOLD TOXICS DESCRIPTION: Oceans and Environment Program October 22, 1985 This would be a broad study, encompassing not only the direct household use of toxics (e.g., paint thinners and Drano) but also sources of exposure arising "indirectly" from use (e.g., indoor air pollution from random and building materials). Policy options may be tricky to identify; they might range from public education, to product contents information, to use and disposal safeguards. RELEVANCE: This study could have immediate national significance. OTA would appear to be well positioned for this study since the agency already has expertise in a number of related areas. Congress may not address this topic head-on, but the pervasiveness of contaminants throughout society is of national concern. OTA could make a valuable contribution by educating the Congress about the options available to all citizens and, in turn, by helping to build a broadbased environmental awareness and responsibility. TITLE: ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION FROM FEDERAL FACILITIES DESCRIPTION: This project could prove a difficult under!aking. Issues to be addressed could include how many and what types -of facilities are federally-owned, how many people live in proximity to these facilities, and how many facilities are in violation of environmental statutes. The information we gathered for the groundwater report suggests that DOD and DOE facilities are the most obvious to examine, but other agencies are likely to have their share of surprises. One such "surprise" is the use of asbestos to regrade paths in national parklands. RELEVANCE: Congress should be very interested in this kind of study. The implications of an assessment could also be long-term, quite far-reaching in terms of national policy, and international in scope. For example, work by staff at the Environmental Policy Institute suggests that the nuclear arms race will be deterred, not by public sentiment against nuclear war, but by the costly environmental safeguards that could someday be required to protect individuals who live near the munitions plants. -3-

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Project:jrm Oceans and Environment Program October 22, 1985 TITLE: THE RIGHT-TO-KNOW AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR IMPROVING PUBLIC HEALTH DESCRIPTION: There has occurred a continual expansion in the concept of right-to-know over the last decade. This expansion has increased both the number of sectors of our society who are seen as having a need to know about hazardous chemicals to which they might be exposed, and the extent of information disclosure required of industry. In its most expansive form, right-to-know extends to the entire public and calls for disclosure not just of a list of chemicals in use, but also maximum inventory; method of storage; total emissions and releases into air, ground, and water; and quantities and means of disposal for any wastes containing the substance. How can this data be best used to accomplish the protection of public health for which it is intended? What conflicts arise with regard to trade secrets, excessive paperwork and expense, etc.? What other needs must be met in order to make such disclosure useful to the lay public? RELEVANCE: Laws requiring such disclosures are already or likely to soon be in place. The data will be pouring in, yet there seems to be little attention being paid to the question of how it is to be used (e.g., organized, provided for public access, analyzed). Should we commit to a federal effort to build the database that many acknowledge is needed to assess the true hazards posed by -our society's widespread use of toxic chemicals? How.can such data be utilized in setting and evaluating long-term policy? A PROJECT FOR ANOTHER PROGRAM TITLE: FOOD TECHNOLOGIES AND ADDITIVES DESCRIPTION: If we are what we eat, what are we all becoming??? This project would focus on food additives, new production processes, and new technologies to increase shelf-life (e.g., irradiation). RELEVANCE: Food technologies are becoming very complicated. Have the risks posed by these changes been adequately studied? I can only hope that Congress takes an interest in this topic. Certainly OTA has several programs (health or food?) that could explore what's going on. -4-

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July 10, 1985 Page 1 CIT PROGRAM. CRAR.TEI. The Communication and Information Technologies Program is formally defined by technology. It is concerned with technologies that create, read, store, manipulate, transmit, or display information. Primarily, these are electronic technologies exemplified by computers and communications systems. However, information technology is an ubiquitous technology used by all sectors in society --in manufacturing, agriculture, medicine, banking, education, research, government, and defense. It plays a critical role in international trade and economic growth. Hence, technology, itself, cannot be the basic determiner of prime CIT responsibility, but rather a description of the broad technical expertise needed at OTA in this area. CIT responsibilities are defined in layers, with some central,~ areas, and other areas defined as complementary to other OTA program responsibilities. The areas are as follows: I. Core responsibilities 1. Pure technology issues: The program is responsible for monitoring the research and development of new information technologies, such as artificial intelligence, supercomputers, satellite and optical communications, computer security, and software techniques. CIT assesses the technological state of the art in these areas as well as trends in basic research and development.

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July 10, 1985 Page 2 2. Telecomaunications regulation: Despite trends for deregulation, the provision of telecommunications services remains heavily regulated. This regulation, exercised by all levels of government, affects the form information technology takes and the ways it is used. Although theoretically restricted to communications, regulation also affects most computer based information technologies and services, which increasingly depend on and are indistinguishable from communications. 3. Infomtion Policy: There are many government policies that directly relate to information and its use --for example, intellectual property, privacy, freedom of information~vulnerability and security, and computer crime. These policies are pervasively affected by changing technology that alters the form of information and the way it is used. 4. Applications of inforaation technology 1n the public sector: A particular emphasis since the first assessments of the CIT Program has been the use of these technologies in the public sector. The original requests for the NIS study were concerned with use by criminal justice agencies, the Postal Service, Social Security, and the IRS. The Government Information Technology assessment is the current study concerned with Government use, and future assessments on the Constitution and on public information are in the planning stage.

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July 10, 1985 Page 3 II. OCher responsibilities 1. Gap filling: Many applications of information technology have no other clear program home; in many instances, these applications are in the information sector. Educational techology, for instance, has been an area in which CIT has developed particular exp~rtise and may do further work. Other areas for possible future work incude the press, broadcast media, and libraries. 2. Cross issue studies: Some assessments include multiple issue areas, some but not all of which may be represented in other programs, e.g., office automation and international telecommunications. In those cases, CIT may be asked to assume the lead role for a study, or may do assessments that overlap in part studies done by other programs that focus on specific sets of issues such as defense, international relations, or industrial policy.

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CIT Program October 23, 1985 Information and Communication Technologies in Wholesale and Retail Trade To look at effects of microelectronic information/communication technologies on wholesale and retail trade, especially supermarkets, department stores, drug stores, other chain stores, independent stores (small business), and mail-order businesses. Potential issue areas include effects on consumer price and service, fair trade, competitiveness, employment, small business, working conditions, ratio of part-time to full-time work, etc. RELEVANCE: o CIThas studied the effects of information technologies on manufacturing (1984), financial services (1984), and offices (1985). A study of wholesale and retail trade is a natural follow-on to these studies and would extend the analysis to another large segment of the economy and the workforce. o Issues of current interest to Congress include trade balance (exports and imports), consumer prices, small business viability, and confidentiality in the management of consumer financial and personal data and employee data. 0 I 0 Employment in retail and wholesale trade has grown at an average annual rate of 2.8%, 1970-1980 (but slipped to 0.1 percent 1980-83), and constitutes about 12% of total employment. Capital stock per hour of work grew, in constant dollars, from $6.94 to $9.15 in 1983, but is under half of that for the financial industries. However, with increased interest in point-of-sale terminals, etc., it is expected to grow rapidly in the next few years. Committees potentially interested: House and Senate Committees related to Commerce, Labor, Small Business (especially subcommittee on general oversight and the economy).

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CIT Program October 23, 1985 U.S. Telecomaunications Infrastructure The telecommunications system in the United States is in the process of rapid and fundamental change. Not only has there been significant development and convergence of the areas of communications and information technology; there has also been parallel changes in the structure of these industries. In addition, the administrative agencies responsible for regulating these industries --be they at the state, the Federal, or the international level are also in a state of considerable flux. Advances in information and communications technologies afford new economic and social opportunities for their use. In addition to supporting a wide variety of commercial information services, telecommunications networks, depending upon their design, might be increasingly used to provide public health, education, library, and a host of other Governmental-services. Intensely aware of these possibilities, many foreign governments are designing future telecommunications systems with these opportunities in mind. This study will look at what might be entailed in developing a national information infrastructure --given a variety of potential uses; alternative means by which such an infrastructure might be designed and brought about (taking into account parallel activities in other countries); and the choices that might be the most appropriate for the United States. Such a study would help the Congress to understand how technological changes are interacting with structural and regulatory changes to produce important opportunities for economic and social development, and how Federal policy might affect the nation's ability to take advantage of these opportunities. Relevance A. The structure of the future telecommunications network is being determined, at least in part, by Federal policy decisions and, incrasingly, by international developments and negotiations. As the ET study will most likely document, economic growth and the provision of quality social services will increasingly depend on the availability of a highly sophisticated, dependable, and affordable communications system. B. Because the Congress is continually addressing a number of issues in a piecemeal fashion that will affect the future course of the nation's information telecommunications infrastructure, such a study would be of acute importance to the Congress. C. Providing a basic overview, this study would build upon and tie together much of CIT's previous work on information policy.

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CIT Program October 23, 1985 ICnowledge-Based Systems and Complex Information Processing This study will examine our society's growing needs for ways to manage large, complex stores of information, and the ability of the emerging technology of knowledge-based or "expert" systems (a subset of the general field of artificial intelligence) to meet those needs. Relevance: a) Complex information processing is becoming ever more pervasive. From medicine to manufacturing to Social Security, managing enormous, fluid data flows is becoming the key to productivity and effective delivery of services. Knowledge-based systems now appears to be one of the most promising tools to allow our institutions to cope with this change. b) First, the Federal Government depends on complex information processing for a wide variety of tasks, from defense to public welfare to air traffic control. Second, the competitiveness of American industry may increasingly depend on complex information.processing. Third, the Federal Government funds most of the fundamental research in artificial intelligence, mainly through DoD but also through NIH and NSF. c) An OTA assessment could help Congress assess the current and future usefulness of knowledge-based systems for handling complex information processing needs in Government, industry, and medicine; and the adequacy of current Government programs for maintaining leadership and competitiveness in this area. d) OTA has conducted case studies in the field of artificial intelligence for several years and can draw on its expertise in manufacturing and office automation. Assessing the needs for and potential of knowledge-based system requires expertise in both technical and socio-technical systems, and OTA is uniquely qualified in both areas. Issues to be addressed 1) Equity issues. E.g., access to health care, shifting control of decisions from people to automated systems. 2) Productivity issues. Need for knowledge-based systems to be competitive, impact on quality of working life. 3) Lifestyle issues. Impact of knowledge-based systems on everyday life (e.g., ability to cope with "information overload.")

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CIT Program October 23, 1985 Human-Computer Interactions: Im.plications for the Programs of the Federal Government This study will examine how growing sophistication in designing the man/machine interface can be used to enhance a variety of the Government's missions. Relevance a. Computers are becoming more pervasive and we are becoming more dependent on them. Interest in human/computer interactions as a field of research has begun to build, pulled in part by demands of users for ever more powerful systems to deal with very complicated tasks. The design of the interface between people and computers will profoundly affect our everyday lives, the effectiveness of people at accomplishing a wide variety of tasks, and whether certain groups are alienated in the "information society." b. This issue could come before Congress in a variety of ways, including: (1) The human-computer interface is increasingly a life-critical issue in high risk systems such as air traffic contol, military systems control, emergency management, and nuclear reactor control; (2) The interface is increasingly becoming a prominent issue in the ability of agency personnel (e.g., SSA, VA) to deliver public services productively and to maintain the quality of work life for Federal workers. Several major Federal computer system upgrades (e.g., SSA, FAA) will come on line at approximately the time of this assessment; (3) As more and more automation is used in the U.S., our competitiveness depends increasingly on our staying at the cutting edge of sophistication in human-machine interface work, and we do not hold a clear lead in this area; (4) The Federal Government, especially the Department of Defense, funds the lion's share of research in this area; (5) Improvements in the human-machine interface promise dramatic changes for education and lifelong learning, as computers will be able to deliver customized yet widely available training. c. OTA could help the Congress to evaluate whether enough work is being done on the human-computer interface for high-risk and other missions of the Federal Government; to identify new opportunities for R&D funding, for example, in education, which could be exploited more fully; and, as an early warning function, to understand where the general direction of human-machine interaction research is taking computers and, in turn, many critical aspects of our society. d. This is a very technical topic with strong social implications. OTA (and in particular CIT) has a lot of expertise and background to build upon in our work on automation, information technology research and development, education, and artificial intelligence.

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CIT Program October 23, 1985 International Telec011111unications A new General World Administration Radio Conference (GWARC) is scheduled for 1988. An OTA report analyzed the 1979 GWARC after the fact and made some suggestions for improving U.S. participation. Since then, the U.S. has experienced several specialized and regional meetings, as well as continued rapid change in the technology of international communications. This study would examine the effects of technological change, changes in U.S. domestic communications policy, and experiences at the specialized WARCs to determine how the U.S. interests in frequency utilization and world communication are being advanced. Relevance A. Increasingly, U.S. communication policy cannot be made independently of international agreements over such issues as spectrum utilization, interconnection standards, and geosynchronous satellite orbit allocations. Yet the days in which the U.S. and a few other developed nations and telecommunication monopolies exercised complete control over these decisions has long passed. Instead, they must be negotiated in fora in which all participants have one vote, in which other political considerations intrude, and in which national objectives for telecommunications development differ. Furthermore, in developing their own list of objectives and constraints, the U.S. policy-makers must take into account a much wider range of interested stakeholders and a much more rapid and varied evolution of domestic communications technology and applications. B. A wide variety of Federal agencies are responsible for various aspects of preparations for the WARC, and just as many are highly interested in the outcome --which could affect U.S. communication. policy, defense communications, and the economic competitiveness of the communication and information sector. One would expect both Commerce and both Foreign Affairs Committees to have interest. c. OTA could assist the Congress with understanding the broader implications of the highly technical decisions made at the WARC, the U.S. stakes in the negotiation, and the way technology is affecting the process of bargaining in the telecommunications arena. D. OTA would draw on its past work and expertise in the areas of communications technology and the past examination of the WARC process. The process has been deeply affected qy technological change, and the decisions arrived at the WARCs, while often carrying serious political and economic implications, are complex technological ones.

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FALL 1985 Science, Education and Transportation SET. is responsible for principal work in the broad areas of science policy (basic research direction and resource allocation), education (education in grade K through graduate school and programs for adults not based on job skills), and the more technology specific area of transportation. SCIENCE as understood for purposes of program development includes issues surrounding the "health of the scientific enterprise." These issues include the development and utilization of scientists, the decision process for allocation of Federal funds for basic research, dissemination of and access to scientific information and data, the role of Federal and other institutions designed to support or regulate research, and the theory and practice of research and development. SET work in these areas will generally cover more than one discipline, and will attempt to draw parallels and comparisons across various fields of science. The distinction between basic and applied science cannot be clearly defined and varies greatly by field, so decisions on specific project content must be made through close coordination at the Program Manager level. EDUCATION refers to in-school methods, practices and philosophy for people from, early childhood through adult. The formal education of scientists is closely related to the science component of the program, but SET has responsibility for all aspects of education. A number of technologies are involved in the education process, as well as many human factors. As in science, this area merges at $Orne point with _tl}e ITE responsibility for adult job-related training. The emergence of educational opportunities outside the traditional school structure further complicates the distinction. Developing technologies, assessment techniques and indicators, teacher qualification and training, specific problems of special populations, literacy, and the changing demographics of the student population are fertile areas for future work. TRANSPORTATION refers to all modes of transport --vehicular, rail, air, and water (expertise in the Oceans and Environment program would normally be used for marine transport questions.) SET analyzes transportation issues from the point of view of the entire transportation system, thus working against the inherent Congressional thrust to deal separately with each mode. Issues in transportation include the research and development of specific technologies, regulation, institutional change, economic impacts, and international competition. * Future Directions --Areas not currently falling within specific OTA program charters that are of interest to SET include topics frequently associated with public sector or "urban issue" questions; such as housing, crime, and community development.

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Effects of Deregulation on Transportation Safety Within the past decade, the Federal Government has sharply reduced economic regulation of the trucking, railroad, and airline industries. The immediate result of these deregulatory measures has been to provide easier market entrance and exit and to afford carriers greater freedom with respect to the nature of service provided and the manner of competition. At the same time, the Federal Government has also pursued other deregulatory measures. Product safety regulations for automobiles and truck have been relaxed in the interest of relieving financial burdens on manufacturers. The number and extent of operational safety inspections by Federal agencies have been reduced, partly for budgetary reasons. There is growing concern that deregulation may be having an adverse effect on transportation safety. The organizational structure and operating patterns of all modes are changing rapidly, and competitive pressures may be giving rise to unsafe practices, deferred or neglected maintenance, and traffic congestion that increase the probability of mishap. In some cases, the ability to make a clear determination of the possible decline in safety is hampered by the cutback in Federal reporting and recordkeeping requirements that has accompanied deregulation. OTA could render a useful service to the Congress in assessing what may be a growing safety problem and in evaluating specific proposals to adjust the regulatory posture with regard to certain industries. The proposed study could not only pinpoint safety problems and their causes for individual modes, but also examine more generic issues and strategies pertaining to the regulation of transportation as a whole. OT A is in a unique position to conduct this study for three reasons. We can approach the matter more objectively than a regulatory agency, which might not be able to make a unbiased self-examination. Second, we are in a position to make intermodal comparisons and comprehensive judgments -something that might not be possible within the fragmented jurisdiction of DOT modal administrations. Finally, as a result of the hazmat study, we have a familiarity with transportation data bases that is not matched by other agencies.

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Rationale for a Study on "Science Policy and the Nation's Colleges and Universities: the Implications of Current, Trends. Many of the issues that arise most frequently at hearings and symposia on science policy relate to the ability of the Nation's colleges and universities to train scientists and carry out research. Such issues include: --The problem of replacing obsolete equipment and facilities. --"Bureaucratic accretion" in proposal writing and grant execution. --Restrictions on scientific communication for national security or international trade reasons. --Increasing milit.arization of the nation's R&D budget. --Implications of the new industry-university partnerships for academic freedom and the conduct of research. --The need to ensure equality of access to science and engineering for women and minorities. --The quality of engineering education and the ability of universities and colleges to attract engineering faculty. --Education and utilization of foreign national scientists. --The likely underemployment of future science PhDs. Several leaders of the science policy community have stated that rebuilding the Nation's "science and technology base" -the ability of universities to carry out basic research and train scientists -should be the highest priority for science policy. And yet Federal support for university basic research has increased only modestly in this decade, with much of the increment coming from defense spending. No major new initiatve for university science facilities has been ~nacted despite th.e widely-acknowledged need for action in this area. Science education funds have been reduced substantially and "equal opportunity programs" mandated in 1980 have only been partially implemented. Federal fellowships, traineeships and institutional support grants remain well below their 1960s levels. At the same time colleges and universities are faced with declining enrollments, which will further erode their financial base; cutbacks in Federal funds for undergraduate tuition assistance; and an increasingly senior, and therefore increasingly expensive faculty. It therefore appears that an examination of the impact of these new developments in U.S. science and technology on the quality of research and teaching on campus could be an excellent and timely study for the science policy project. It would draw on expertise and contacts we have already developed in the course of preparing the three current TM' s. It would be a logical follo,;ron to the Demographic Impacts and Regulatory Environment TM's and to the background paper on instructional equipment. It would appeal to a wider audience in Congress --including the House and Senate Education and Labor Committees, the Budget and Appropriations Committees, and the House Science and Technology Committee -than the small Washington circle that follows most science policy issues. It would be complementary to our efforts to develop expertise and recognition in educational policy. And it would enable us to help define an emerging issue, rather than respond to an alreadyset debate.

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TITLE: Technologies to Improve Literacy An assessment of technologies on information age literacy levels. RELEVANCE: child and adult literacy and the impact of information (l)the skills and knowledge needed to function in an and (2)the use of new technologies to raise the Nation's Concern over the extent and consequences of illiteracy in America is high. With estimates of 25 million illiterate adults and an additional 46 million adults considered marginally functional, government, industry, and educational leaders point to the enormous social, economic, and political costs to the Nation in terms of wasted or underutilized human resources, work productivity, and competence. Not only is there concern for addressing the needs of adults, but also there is an increasing demand to address the problem while learners are still in school. The need for preventive measures is demonstrated by the fact that each year approximately 2.3 million people over the age of 16 join the nation's pool of illiterates. They include almost 1 million high school dropouts, and more than 1 million immigrants who cannot read and write in their native languages or English. Given the growth of information products and services and high-technology industries in our economy, some suggest that the emerging computer-age workplace will place even higher demands on literacy, education and job retraining. The staggering statistics on illiteracy are likely to influence federal policy and options as Congress considers reauthorization of Chapter 1 of the Elementary and Secondary Educ~tion Act_ in 1987,. as well as Adult Education and Job Training Partnership Acts. An assessment of literacy and the impact of technology could draw on OTA resources and information gathered in its current assessments of Office Automation and Job Retraining, as well as previous work on education and on the role of demographics in technical education. ISSUES TO BE ADDRESSED: Differences in literacy accomplishment in school by race, socioeconomic status, public/private institution, urban/rural location as well as the nature and reach of adult reading programs in school settings, community groups, and for-profit operations will be examined with a view towards understanding how new technologies are and might be deployed to improve instruction and opportunites for learning. For example, to what extent are computers used in schools for reading and writing and what evidence is there concerning their impact, particularly among populations that are high risk, e.g. minority, lowsocioeconomic status etc. In order to use technology resources and delivery systems, what institutional, technical, and human-interface barriers will need to be overcome? How might advances in machine design, software engineering, graphic display systems, voice input and synthesis technology, information storage and retrieval systems be applied to affect both the creation of improved instructional tools and delivery of services?

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Protecting the Nation's Investment in Transportation Federal spending on transportation research and development has declined dramatically in the past five years. Concurrently, foreign equipment and innovative technologies have been making major inroads into the U.S. market. Except for the Federal committment to aviation research, based on national security and air traffic control needs, Federal R&D support in transportation has atrophied: automobile manufacturers are forming consortia with foreign manufacturers, domestic rail car manufacturers no longer exist, high speed rail R&D is being done in Japan and Germany for sale in the U.S., foreign bus and truck designs are being imported and assembled here. While technological R&D continues in the private sector, it is narrowly targeted and short term in focus in the U.S. This has enormous implications for the economic and operational health of the U.S. transportation industries. The reductions in Federal transportation R&D support have had visible impact already, but the future effects will be more severe. An OTA review of Federal transportation R&D is overdue. The structural support within DOT for R&D is being dismantled. More disappears each year, and rebuilding it will be costly. It is well within OTA's charter to study the long-term effects on the transportation system of policies that are set by activities of numerous separate Congressional committees and Executive agencies. By virture of past assessments of automotive, rail, and aviation techn ology, OTA is well-qualified to study the decline in domestic technological innovation as it relates to ~the economic heal th of domestic transportation supply industries. In addition, no one has taken a comprehensive and dispassionate look at R&D from the perspective of an intermodal transportation system.

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Rationale for a Study of -Peer Review for Scientific Funding: How It Works Today.-Peer review is considered by many to be an essential element of the Nation's policy for funding basic research. Resting on the assumption that scientists are best able to judge one another's past and prospective research, it enables the scientific community to maintain a degree of control over the allocation of resources that is probably not achieved by any other group supported by Federal funds. The recent spate of laboratory facilities funded by direct appropriations on the floor of the House or Senate has rekindled the longstanding debate over the quality and adequacy of the peer review system. Most scientists defend the system, and past studies have generally not substantiated claims that it favors the elite over the non-elite or conventional research over more speculative studies. The purpose of an OTA examination of the peer review process would not be to determine how "well" the system works, but rather to define the boundaries and principal characteristics of its operation. What fraction of the Federal budget is covered by peer review? How many agencies use it? Is only research covered or are development and facilities projects routinely peer-reviewed as well? Who is considered a "peer" --scientists alone, or others as well? How are proposal reviewers selected? Who actually gets to sit on review committees? How do peer review practices differ from agency to agency? How do U.S. practices differ from those of the Europeans and Japanese? Could we learn any lessons from the experience of other countries? An understanding of how the peer review system works, how widely it is applied and what are the principal-alternatives would be useful to the authorizing and Appropriations committees of both Houses in considering how to respond to concerns raised by the scientific community over perceived Congressional undermining of the peer review process.

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Rationale for a Study of Issues in Science Education Science education has been the subject of intense Congressional concern in the 1980s, with the Administration's proposal to terminate NSF science education programs in 1982 followed closely by a series of reports, such as A Nation at Risk, documenting the poor health of science teaching in the Nation's schools. Following extensive hearings in the House and Senate, and passage of the Science and Mathematics Education Act of 1982, the NSF has been charged with reformulating the Federal approach to science education. The House Science and Education and Labor Committees are paying close attention to the the Administration's new programs in this area. OTA could potentially be of assistance to Congress by providing an intelligent and comprehensive assessment of one or more of the following topics. 1. How Does the U .s. Science Education System Differ From That of Other Industrial Nations? Congress is besieged by alarming reports on the poor state of science education in the U.S. compared to other nations. These reports, however, are often based on comparisons of one or two indicators, which may not provide an accurate picture of the entire educational system. What is needed is a comprehensive assessment of the science education systems of different countries to establish who educated, to what level of sophistication, and for what purpose in the school systems of other countries. Such an assessment might help policymakers better understand the strengths and weaknesses of the U.S. science education process. 2. Science Education and Equality of Access to Science and Engineering Careers. The Demographic Impf!_cts TM ~stablishe_d the need for a more. thorough study of the causes of low participation rates in science and engineering among blacks, Hispanics and American Indians, and the factors which lead to success or failure in intervention programs aimed at increasing those participation rates. Most studies agree that to promote access to science and engineering among disadvantaged students one has to begin the process as early as possible, preferably in elementary school. We could easily devote an entire TM to the factors which lead to low participation rates and the effectiveness of different remedies. 3. New Technologies and the Science Education Process. New technologies such computers, NMR scanners, advanced sensors and videocasette recorders can provide new tools for innovative teaching of traditional subjects. They can also require new skills which place additional demands on the curriculum and on the skills of the instructional staff. It might be worthwhile to look at the effect of new technologies on the process, content and skill requirements for science education at the grade school, high school and/or college level. 4. The Education of High School Science and Mathematics Teachers: Many educators believe that the preparation of science and mathematics teachers is inadequate to the requirements of today's technological society. It might be useful to do a study of how such teachers are educated today, and how that education system could be improved.

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Studies for Other Programs SET List 1. Level of compliance of Federal facilities with Federal regulations, principally environmental and safety regulations. 2. The defense investment in weapons, with particular attention to incremental addition of technologies that may not add to (or may detract from) cost and field performance. 3. Technologies for protecting the nation's possibilities for blocking loss via a)electronic b)reconnaissance satellites and aircraft; c)direct and d)sale or theft of equipment. secrets: problems and intelligence gathering, acquisition of document, 4. Availability of water for all purposes on a long-term basis. 5. Experience in problem-solving: international comparisons of mechanisms and experience. 6. Two topics of internal interest: 1) OTA' s past and future choice of projects, by time-scale and importance; and 2) What have we learned about how to assess technology?

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CATEGORY I. DAILY OPERATIORS AllD ADMIIUSTRATIOR Number of responses (pages received): Approximate number of comments: Topics: 40 67 Use of office automation and other equipment (computers, copy machines, etc.), Budgets and accounting procedures, Travel and meeting arrangements, Promotions (criteria, timing ), Approval processes (for letters, documents, assessment reports, testimony, purchase orders, travel, training), Response to requests (from outside visitors, for TAAC, for public presentations, for annual or quarterly reports ), Contracts process (from point of view of OTA staff letting contracts or OTA contractors), and Organizational structure and management. Overview There were a total of 30 comments on the topic of office automation and other equipment. The comments on computers covered a range of issues, including the problems of using two different systems (NBI and IBM-PCs); the need for additional trouble-shooting personnel and training; and the need for more equipment, or at least a survey of existing equipment. The comments on copiers were far more consistent (and, in several instances, more vehement): the copiers are inadequate for the demand, they break down too frequently, and supplies are not adequately maintained. The remaining comments submitted in this category covered a wide range of topics, with few duplications or unifying themes. On the topic of travel and meeting arrangements, three individuals complained about the quality of service from Omega. On the topic of promotions, two. individuals pointed out a need for clearer, more uniform, and better publicized criteria. 1-1

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Listing of Topics and Summary of Connnents 1. Office automation and other equipment (23 comments) a. Computers (1) Need better coordination and/or integration of multiple systems (2 comments) Respondents expressed concern that the lack of standardization creates problems of communication and coordination, particularly for offices (such as CPA) that must work with all programs. Multiple systems permit "passing the buck." (2) Need additional support for both systems for trouble-shooting, problem resolution (3 comments) Concern was related to both hardware and software problems with both systems; both Bryan Harrison and John Bell are spread too thin to deal with the many software questions and James Holmes is not able to be in enough places at one time to handle all the hardware problems. Concern did not appear to be with the quality of existing personnel, but with the quantity. One respondent suggested a service contract with IBM. (3) Need more training available on a continuing basis (3 comments) Concern was not only with word processing training, but with training to enable users to make better use of the full range of capabilities provided by computers. One respondent also suggested a survey of equipment already available in OTA so that more staff would be aware of what we have access to without additional expenditures. (4) IBM users should agree on a standardized format for default settings used for printing (5) Invest in enough PCs to allow all staff access to their own terminal (6) Need more than one laser printer b. Copiers (12 comments) Most concern was with the copiers on the 4th floor --they break down too frequently, are too slow, paper supply is not replenished often enough. One respondent suggested replacing both copiers with a single higher-quality model similar to the one on the 5th floor. Four respondents suggested assigning responsibility to a single individual to monitor paper supply and maintenance needs on a daily basis. 1-2

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2. Budget and accounting procedures BFO needs to do a better job of maintaining accurate, up-to-date figures of expenditures. 3. Travel and meeting arrangements (4 comments) Three respondents complained about the quality of service from Omega. One respondent suggested advance payment for travel scheduled after the end-of-fiscal-year cutoff date, pointing out that the cutoff coupled with anticipated fare increases may result in OTA paying higher fares than necessary if funds could be advanced. The same respondent also pointed out the need for a mechanism to allow advance reimbursement for OTA travelers in cases where hotels require deposits. Another respondent suggested revisions to the standard letters sent out to panel members regarding limits on reimbursement, stating that recipients are offended by the tone. 4. Promotions/merit increases (7 comments) a. Merit increases (4 comments) (1) Eliminate uniform percentage scale for increases (2) Allow program managers to apportion raises among program staff once budget targets are established (3) Grant immediate increase with promotion to project director (4) Use end of year surplus funds for merit increas~s rather than equipment purchases b. Promotions (3 comments) Two respondents suggested the need for clearer, more uniform, and more publicized criteria for promotions. One suggested that OTA should take a more active role in identifying individuals deserving of promotion (shift the burden from the individual to the organization). 5. Outside visitors (2 comments) One respondent pointed out that OTA does not have staff or the time to respond to the volume of requests for interchange with outside visitors. The other suggested a more systematic and gracious way of handling foreign visitors: coordination at higher level; prepared packets; explicit encouragement for responsible people to meet with visitors; some means for entertaining them for lunch or dinner; and some way of sharing the outcomes of these meetings with more OTA staff. 1-3

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6. Contracts process (3 comments) a. Provide individual contractors with adequate information on their income tax responsibilities b. Compile and circulate a list of outside contractors already used, including comments on quality of work c. Conduct short course or seminar for OTA staff on dealing with contractors 7. Organizational structure and management (8 comments) a. Distinction between Health and Bio Apps is unclear b. Conflicts among Assistant Directors need to be resolved; either delegate responsibility for policy decisions to one individual and abide with that decision or require them to resolve disagreements among themselves c. Provide extended hours for Information Center (earlier in the morning, later in the evening, plus some weekend access) d. Develop an international relations department as liaison with comparable agencies in other countries e. Rename analysts and senior analysts as policy analysts and senior policy analysts to clarify for outsiders what their role.is f. Develop more flexible crossing of program lines coupled with pockets of expertise so that new studies could more readily call upon existing expertise across program lines g. Need more management by walking around h. Pay more attention to development of agendas for first Thursday meetings; perhaps delegate responsibility for agenda development to a designated program manager or group of program managers; reinstitute participation of operations managers to provide insights across program lines i. Departing management-level personnel should complete personnel performance evaluations prior to departure so that promotions and raises for these individuals are not delayed because the new manager is not in a position to evaluate staff during the regularly scheduled evaluation cycle 8. Miscellaneous 1-4

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a. Clearly define areas of responsibility within Administrative Services and provide greater responsiveness to day-to-day needs b. Clean the kitchen c. Focus on reports that are narrower in scope and shorter in length d. Cut back on number of in-house contractors and temporary employees e. Improve quality of art work on report covers; try out alternative artists or coach project directors on clearer communication of their wishes f. Provide better advance notification when outside personnel (such as window washers) will be in the building; there are problems of theft (2 comments) g. Need better utilization of data base management resources to provide rapid access to data for responding to Congressional and other outside requests h. Restore legislative calendar information to the monthly directory i. Renegotiate garage access and provide more cards j. Clean up 4th floor ladies room and provide better maintenance and replenishing of supplies k. Be more disciplined in granting of project extensions 1. Eliminate requirement for project director approval for small purchases (e.g., books costing only $6.00) m. Provide central location for processing mass mailings with sufficient table space, supplies of envelopes, copier and word processor handy n. Compile loose leaf notebook of face photos of all OTA staff. Provide xerox copies to each program. 1-5

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CATEGORY II. QUALITY OF WORK LIFE Number of responses (pages received): 44 Number of comments: 81 Topics: Building maintenance Job stresses Office environment Interoffice/interpersonal issues Personnel issues Health issues (Comments from the Awards Committee are also attached) Overview Building maintenance produced the most comments (primarily parking and the ladies restrooms). The other groups are fairly evenly distributed in numbers of comments received. Almost all comments were accompanied by suggestions. 2-1

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Listing of Topics and Summary of Comments 1. Building maintenance a. Parking (11 comments) (1) Assign parking spaces (a proposed priority listing was provided by the respondant) or assign by years of service (2) Insure that the gate is open adequate times (3 comments) (3) Give all OTA employees a green parking card (8 comments) (4) Increase number of parking spaces on B-1 (2 comments) b. Restrooms (10 comments) (1) Better maintain all ladies restrooms (2) Post signs asking for compliance with neatness standards c. Vending machines (5 comments) (1) Provide cranberry juice and milk (2) Provide food vending machines in 5th floor staff room and stock it with nutritious foods (3) Provide machine that dispenses milk/juice in cartons instead of cans (4) Provide other soft drinks besides Coca-Cola products (5) Provide machines that make change 2. Job stresses a. Support for staff with changing responsibilities (4 comments) (1) Set up task force devoted to assessing and preparing documentation for Project Directors --collate experience information from all divisions and programs. (2) Provide better guidelines on the responsibilities of Project Directors and the degree of autonomy they have (especially vis-a-vis CPA and Congressional relations). (2 comments) (3) Staff assigned to new projects are expected to do substantially more work than staff assigned to projects begun last year. b. Job security re: tenure 2-2

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(1) Morale would be improved if temporary employees were told more clearly what to expect in terms of tenure and how much warning they will have when employment ends. A regular list of those who want to stay could be circulated to programs that expect a vacancy. c. Job security re: promotions (1) Personnel hired in the past year have not been rewarded with paper promotions as those who came before have been (nevermind the pay raise issue). d. Deadlines (1) Consistent monitoring, or guidelines for monitoring, of project schedules/timetables would be helpful. e. Stress in general (1) Offer a workshop on stress management. f. Job descriptions/expectations (1) Provide consistency between programs. The line between Research Assistant/Research Analyst/Analyst is very blurred in terms of job expectations and performance. g. Feedback on performance (1) Need more contact from the 5th floor; the Director should spend more time with staff. 3. Office environment a. Office environment in general (6 comments) (1) Provide better furniture for use with word processors. (2) Improve offices with no outside windows and no air circulation. (3) Limit office sharing, particularly of interior offices. (4) Improve storage and neatness of building (old equipment and inventory is frequently stored in hallways for weeks. (5) Clean up carpet stains and chipped paint on walls. (6) Maintain elevators b. Smoking (as part of environment) (4 comments) (1) Inveterate smokers would appreciate a smoking/reading room. 2-3

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(2) Restrict smoking to open areas at the guards' desks --ventilation is insufficient in interior offices. (3) Institute an agency policy against smoking in the workplace. (4) Designate all meetings in the Conference Center as nonsmoking. c. Office automation (2 comments) (1) Carry out an assessment of current office automation and how it effects both OTA staff health and performance as well as the assessment process. (2) Bryan Harrison is spread too thin; never available in the real times of crisis. d. Office equipment (3 comments) (1) Laser printer is frequently backed up; maybe another one is in order. (2) Provide better quality photocopy machines. (3) Photocopy machines should be maintained or replaced; put another machine between ITE and Health. e. Telephones (1) The Watts line is often busy. OTA should get a new long distance system, or distribute OTA's Sprint number more widely and tell people it's a good alternative. 4. Interoffice/interpersonal issues a. Interprogram communication (6 comments) (1) Increase communication. There are fundamental structural reasons why this problem exists. These should be identified and discussed openly by program managers. (2) Reinstitute OTA-wide lunches, and put someone in charge of them. (4 comments) (3) Provide more brown bag seminars and workshops (like the writing one) as a means of communication across programs. b. Competitiveness (1) AD' s themselves must set an example of cooperation for ~he agency. This problem needs to be openly acknowledged and addressed. 5. Personnel issues a. Maternity leave 2-4

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(1) Institute a formal policy on maternity leave. b. Career development/continuing education (3 comments) (1) Offer more opportunities for training, especially for the support staff; as the support staff is usually on the low side of the pay scale, there need to be other incentives to sustain/increase their quality of work. (2) There is little room for career advancement at OTA. OTA could provide assistance through counselling, seminars, list of contacts, and job opportunities outside the agency. OTA's Personnel Office could do more in assisting people to find employment outside the agency. (3) OTA should help finance employees who want to continue their education even in another field (not job-related). c. Training (4 comments) (1) Provide a short orientation session for new employees on word processing. (2) Provide training on all uses of the IBM and training in management. (3) Productive time is lost in self-teaching on the IBM-PCs. (4) Provide language courses, clerical skills training, more writing courses, organizing. d. Working at home (1) There should be a consistent policy regarding working at home, and it should be a liberal one. 6. Health issues a. Health information (2 comments) (1) Hold regularly scheduled afternoon or luncheon seminars on health issues. (2) Nurse's office should distribute health information, pamphlets, etc. and maybe even sponsor discussion groups, workshops (in addition to CPR). b. Water quality (1) Provide bottled water (or a distiller) as an alternative to tap water. c. Exercise (6 comments) (1) Install showers and or exercise room. (4 comments) (2) Offer aerobic exercises, yoga classes, etc. in Conference Center after work. 2-5

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(3) Offer workshops on physical fitness that would encourage jogging, swimming, etc. and track activity of those who sign up. 2-6

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CATEGORY III. THE ASSESSMENT PROCESS AND CARRYING OUT OTA's MISSION Number of responses (pages received): 29 Number of comments: .59 Topics: 1. OTA's purpose, 2. Congressional relations, 3. Developing in-house expertise (e.g., training new project directors and orientation of new staff), 4. Interprogram and interdivision communication, .5. Press relations, 6. Advisory panel members and panel meetings, 7. Process for developing new project proposals, 8. Transitions between projects, and 9. Length and scale of OT A projects. Overview Three topics were referred to in comments by many different people. First was interprogram and interdivisional communication. This was identified more often than any other topic (20 comments). Second was congressional relations (14 comments). Concerns about in house expertise and project transitions are related, and constitute the third major focus for comment (10 comments). Finally, some staff commented upon the length and scope of OTA projects, and these seemed important enough to include in the summary, because they include issues related to starting new projects and the OT A purpose, in addition to the assessment format itself. Many staff noted problems relating to interprogram and interdivision communication: poor communication between programs and divisions, unhealthy competition and "turf battles" between programs and divisions, and perceptions of "fiefdoms" within OT A. Two people ascribed this, in part, to the practice of assigning permanent "slots" to programs and div ,sions and thus impeding transfer of people within OT A. Others noted lack of "brown bag" sen :iars and other activities that would permit communication among projects, programs, and divisions. Others suggested making interprogram and interdivisional cooperation a criterion for promotion. Finally, one person observed that this topic had been on every previous Wye agenda, yet little seems to have been done. This individual related the problems of divisional communications to selection of projects, responsiveness to committees, and orientation to legislative process, and suggested assigning a Task Force of PMs or experienced OTA staff to address the problems, in conjunction with the First Thursday meetings. Comments on congressional relations center on poor knowledge by OT A staff about the legislative process and the needs of their primary client, and insufficient communication with Hill staff during the assessment process. One novel suggestion was to have OTA staff work with requesting committees for a month or more on the Hill, paid by OT A. Another suggestion was to have CPA develop a legislative process seminar to be given regularly for new staff and to refresh regular staff or those taking on new duties. Development of in-house expertise and project transitions are perceived as weak aspects of the OTA process by several people. Many noted that new PDs do not get an education or orientation to their new responsibilities, and one person remarked upon how little discussion occurs within OTA about what "technology assessment" is and should be. Finally, several people noted a failure either to schedule time for followup with Congress and the press or to permit PDs some "down time" between projects. The length and scope of OTA assessments encompass several goals that conflict in some ways. Long documents and assessments can be more thorough and comprehensive, but short ones are more useful and timely. Congress needs shorter response times but also needs careful analysis. Several issues that fall within the OTA mandate are either enduring but not highly conspicuous, or have not yet become critical and would benefit from foresight but have no constituency to fight for them in the congressional arena. There is sometimes a difference between those topics that Congress would like to have OTA address and those that are more 3-1

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likely to endure and be of great importance to society, but have not yet become political (large or small "p"). Several comments that I categorized under the headings "Length and Scope," "New Project Proposals," and "OT A Purpose" reflect on these tensions. Opinion is divided about whether to do fewer projects with large scope or meticulous analysis, or to focus on shorter, quicker projects. ~2

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Listing of Topics and Summary of Comments Below are capsule summaries of most of the comments received, organized by topic. 1. OT A's purpose (3 comments) a) Tension exists between OT A's response to immediate political concerns and careful analysis of emerging issues (both are forms of congressional support, but of very different character). Set aside part of OTA budget to address long-range issues of no immediate congressional interest. b) OT A management should not promise Congress that OT A can do the same work for less money. Limit either scope or number of projects. c) Reduced budgets lead to diminished outside contracting, leading to superficial assessments (listing issues or consensus, rather than analysis of technical judgments). Interim reports also inhibit careful analysis. Although they may be more responsive to congressional needs, interim reports are often a poor solution, and OT A should emphasize identification of enduring issues rather than shorter turnaround and superficial analysis. 2. Con ressional relations (14 comments) a New staf need orientation to legislative process (6 comments). b) Number of OTA personnel permitted by the Library of Congess m its legislative seminars should be increased. c) OT A staff need more interaction with Hill staff during assessments -identified as a potential "weak link" in the OT A process (4 comments). d) Assign OT A staff to requesting committees for 1-3 months, with salary paid by OT A. e) Have CPA coordinate an in-house course on legislative process on a regular basis, for new staff and refreshing regular staff. f) Let all OTA staff interact with congressional staff, not just PDs and above. b) Every new project director starts from scratch. Suggestions include: PD orientations led by experienced PD's, informal brown bag orientations, PD orientation by CPA on how to deal with press, a "point person" to assist new PD's, and a buddy system (experienced PD assigned to new one). c) OTA does not cultivate internal debate about "technology assessment" methodology. Consequences of choices involving workshops, external review mechanisms, press relations, options for working with committees, and use of contracts are not widely discussed. Reviewers, panel members, and workshop participants report the OT A process is a pro forma exercise. The paucity of internal debate may have long-term consequences on OTA's credibility. 4. Inter ro ram and interdivision communication (20 comments) a Interprogram and interdivision competition inhibits open communication and foments internal dissension and unhappiness (6 comments). Interprogram competition and inflexible staffing also lead to inefficiency. Make interprogram work a focus for OTA awards and make it a criterion for promotion. Reduce incentives for "turf battles" by penalizing those engaged in them or promoting those who refrain from it. b) Pool permanent slots, rather than assigning them to programs and divisions. Current policy inhibits interprogram cooperation an~ transfer of permanent employees (2 comments). J .. 3

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c) When there is intellectual disagreement among the Director, AD, PM, or PD about conclusions who makes the final decision? d) Monthly OT A-wide "brown bag" lunches should be resumed, e) Establish quarterly meetings of staff or PDs and PMs with AD (e.g., to discuss issues for each division, to discuss key meetings with Hill members or staff relevant to many programs). f) New staff have few opportunities to meet other OT A staff -coffee or tea each month for new staff might partially remedy this. g) Revive monthly or fortnightly seminars (e. g., on recent OT A reports or interesting topics. Rotate responsibility among programs. h) Much talk has led to little action (with a few exceptions) about "managment by walking around." i) Coordination between programs and the personnel office is weak. j) Access to expertise in other programs is rare and difficult rather than the norm Suggestion: a "pre-assessment brainstorming form" with a brief descriptam of the project, PD, and list of requestors. The form would ask for possible panel members, information sources (people, journals, relevant OTA expertise, references and background material). k) People who take trips on OT A money should report to other OT A staff about the content and utility of the meetings attended. This would reduce frivolous travel and spread the benefiti; of travel to more people. 5. Press relations (4 comments) a) Press releases are not great. b) The "Meet the Press" seminar was helpful (3 comments). Now, how about a place and time to practice video and radio interviewing with critical review? c) Orient new PD's to press relations. d) Seek review of OT A reports by professional journals, in addition to coverage as news items. 6. Advisory panel (2 comments) a) Panel meetings are "plain vanilla format": Suggestion: have one OTA staff person look at alternatives and hold a workshop on workshops involving those who have frequently participated in OT A workshops and consultants expert in group dynamics. b) Advisory panel candidates should know they are not on the panel until they receive written notification. 7. Process for develo in new roect ro osals (4 comments) a The project screening committee should solicit the PM and PD for their comments. b) The current process is "subjective; and individuals dominate the OTA agenda." Suggestion: add a person from CPA to the screening committee and invite CPA to program meetings about possible new projects. c) OTA staff tend to "sanitize" new project proposals in overreaction to congressional politics, rather than maintaining intellectual honesty. d) One comment questioned priorities, contrasting new "antiquities" assessment with other, more important issues that OTA might address.

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8. Transitions between ro ects (3 comments) a OTA does not budget "scheduled down time" for PD's and staff after one major assessment and before the start of a new one. b) Project followup is insufficient --it often devolves to PM after PD and staff have left, allowing only poor followup with the press and Congress. One solution is to retain PD's by providing an "environment where they can professionally grow." c) OTA fails to acknowledge the amount of work entailed in proper follow-up. We need to schedule time for staff and PDs to do press and congressional follow-up after projects are released. 9. Len th and scale of OTA roects (2 comments) a OT projects are too long and too costly. Congress wants utility more than encyclopedic coverage. OT A's strength is synthesis of expert opinion, and this could be done with less emphasis on long contractor reports, large data bases, or new models and projections. b) Reports are "too long and wishy-washy to effectively serve the Congress." We "worship objectivity at the expense of clarity and action," higher-ups at OTA do say they value clarity, but staff "self-censor" potentially controversial ideas. Suggestions: upper management need to encourage innovation in written work and other presentations; accept mistakes and learn from them; be ruthless about clarity, conciseness, and tight focus. Each of the comments under this heading was long and articulate. The comments themselves would thus be profitably consulted. _}-5

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CATEGORY IV. OTHER COMMENTS Number of responses (pages received): 18 Number of comments: 23 Topics: Staff suggestion process Communications within OTA Nametag day Concern for seriously-ill personnel Keeping the library open after hours Wasted resources: paper Flexitime Outside review of OTA operations and management Director-initiated studies Seminars on topics of general interest Degrees vs. demonstrated ability and on-the-job learning Dead wood A positive note ... Overview The staff suggestion form listed three examples of topics that might be covered under "other comments": (1) "how to solicit staff comments on a contuning basis"; (2) "how readily ideas are disseminated upward and downward through OTA"; and, (3) "other problems of concern, whether or not you have a solution." Six comments were received on improving the staff suggestion process, none of which would necessarily be mutually exclusive. The same is true for the 7 comments that were received on "dissemination of ideas within OTA (listed here under the topic, "Communications within OTA). The other ten comments can not be simply grouped or characterized. They represent thoughtful comments on problems or suggestions for action that need to be individually considered. Some of these suggestions could be easily adopted if desired. Others would require additional evaluation as to their feasibility. Still other comments raise concerns for which there may be no immediate or agency wide solution. LISTING OF TOPICS AND SUMMARY OF COMMENTS 1. Staff suggestion process (6 comments) A. Ideas and suggestions occur all year round: why not have a permanent suggestion box, or more frequent solicitation of staff comments? 4-1

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B. Same as (A) above, with the further suggestion that the permanent suggestion box be placed in a fairly inconspicuous place so that those who wished to remain anonymous could do so with ease. C. Perhaps the Director could schedule regular "office hours" or brown bag lunches for the purpose of soliciting staff comments and suggestions. D. Perhaps the staff suggestion committee could hold a luncheon or similar event to personalize the process. E. Next time, leave off the Name (optional) and Program (optional) from the suggestion form--make the suggestions non-optionally anonymous. 2.Communications within OTA (7 comments) A. Reinstate OTA-wide monthly luncheons B. Same as (A) above, but with catering C. An OTA-wide meeting with the Director could be held every few months or once a quarter to update the staff about recent events, and to solicit questions and suggestions. D. Same as (C) above, but meeting also could be used by project directors to brief all staff about recently completed reports. E. The Director and Assistant Directors should make informal visits to each program on a regular basis. F. OTA should hold a staff retreat or picnic on a regular work day for all OTA staff G. In regard to whether ideas are readily disseminated upwards and downwards through OTA, one staff member said: "not very--often seem to stop before project level." 3. Narnetag Day J.H.G. should declare one day a tag with our name and program. names of the people (we) I have months and years, while sparing parenthesis added by S.S.C.) year "nametag day," when all of us would wear a "This will enable (us) me to at least learn the seen everyday (in halls and restrooms) for me (us) the embarassment of asking." (Note: 4. Concern for personnel who may be seriously ill Further consideration should be given to the implications of serious or critical illness, including stress on program budgets, lack of substitute personnel, and "in the hole" sick leave status. While this might not lead to "policy", since each situation is based on individual circumstances, "some further consideration should be given to these matters." 4-2

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5. Keeping the library open after hours Is there a way to use the information center at night or on the weekends without overburdening the information center staff? 6. Yasted resources: Paper OTA should consider a wastepaper recycling program. Bob Harootyan, who made this suggestion, volunteers both to investigate ways to develop such a program, and to seek other volunteers for the effort. If a program, after investigation, were found to be feasible, strong support from the Director could help assure its success. 7. Flexitime "Flexitime would be a great experiment to try at OTA .... Observing how flexitime affects people and their job performance (if initiated as a trial run, of course) OTA can than decide if it's working and worthwhile." 8. Outside review of OTA operations and management "I believe OTA might benefit by having its operations and management practices reviewed by an outside consulting firm. I do not mean an audit of current practices and how they conform to regulations, but rather an assessment of how well we address the needs of our primary client (the Congress) and our secondary clients .... This would include a review of what we now do, interviews with current staff at all levels and in all divisions (including support services, which are integral to OTA success with Congressional committee staff and members, and with those who know about the OTA process of technology assessment (perhaps former or current members of advisory panels)." (See compilation of staff comments for additional details about the proposed review.) 9. Director-initiated studies Noting that the direction of technological change and its impact on OTA's Congressional role imply a need for the Director to use his option to suggest studies to TAB, this comment suggests three such studies: (1) an "early warning study" to identify and assess international technology gaps and social/ political issues that will arise with the likely advancements in biological sciences in the next 20 years; (2) assessment of technologies for environmental impact assessment of organisms that have been genetically-engineered; and (3) assessment of technologies to maintain peace through the management of international conflict. 10. Seminars on topics of general interest Establish monthly seminars on topics of general interest to orA personnel--e.g., on nutrition, health, financing, and environmental issues. 11. Degrees vs. demonstrated ability and on-the-job learning 4-3

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Too much emphasis is given to whether and how many degrees a person has, and not enough emphasis is given to demonstrated abilities and on-the-job learning. 12. Dead Wood Noting that incompetent project directors can often be carried by a good staff, this comment suggests that "perceptive" management should recognize red flags and take effective action to remove the "incapable from positions of responsibility/authority where they create rather than solve problems." The problem is seen as an OTA-wide problem. "Some of these personnel problems solve themselves--others do not, especially those involving more senior staff." 13. A Positive Note to End On "OTA's a great place to work--and it's great being associated with such a wellrespected organization--we should promote ourselves more."

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APPENDIX A AREAS OF OVERIAP Survey responses have been tabulated according to the category in which staff submitted them (Daily Operations and Administration, Quality of Work Life, The Assessment Process and Carrying Out OTA' s Mission, and Other Comments). However, some comments were submitted in more than one category. The following list presents areas of overlap and the approximate total number of comments received for all categories. Our identification of overlap does not imply that these topics deserve any more, or less, attention than topics that do not overlap categories; this information is provided for use in conjunction with the "Overview" sections for each category. ~ive areas of overlap received at least 15 comments; these are listed first. No further singling out of other areas, based on numbers of comments, is made --the Staff Suggestion Committee does not want to convey or imply a direct relationship between the importance of comments and the frequency of their submission. Topic of Overlap Internal communication/conflicts among AD's/turf battles Training (excluding computer) Approximate number of comments 35 15 Office automation/troubleshooting 15 -Copy machines 15 Congressional relations 15 A-1 In Categories 4 3 2 2 2

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Topic of Overlap Approximate number of comments Laser printer 2 Promotions 6 Clarify/change job titles 2 Taking advantage of expertise 10 agency-wide Management by walking around 6 Shorter assessment reports 3 Response time to Congressional 10 requests Parking garage 12 Maintaining ladies rooms 12 Project schedules/timetables/extensions Resuming OTA-wide lunches Extending Information Center's hours Orientation for Project Directors Seminars/workshops/get-togethers A-2 2 10 2 10 10 In ... Categories 2 3 2 2 4 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 3

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APPENDIX B --SYNTHESIS OF ALL COMMENTS BY TOPIC I. Environmental issues A. Physical plant B. 1. Restrooms a. Provide better maintenance and replenishing of supplies b. Post signs requesting employee cooperation in keeping restrooms clean 2. Kitchen needs to be kept clean 3. Garage a. Extend hours when door is kept open for early arrivals b. Provide more green cards c. Assign parking spaces (either by job or by seniority) d. Provide more spaces on B-1 4. Vending machines a. Provide greater variety, more nutritious selection (1) Cranberry juice (2) Milk (3) Soft drinks other than Coca Cola products b. Locate machines in 5th floor lunch room c. Provide machines that dispense milk and juice in cartons instead of cans d. Provide change machine 5. Public areas a. b. c. Equipment Improve storage and neatness Clean up carpet stains and chipped paint Maintain elevators 1. Computers a. Provide better coordination and/or integration of multiple systems b. Provide additional trouble-shooting support c. Provide more training on a continuing basis d. Develop a standardized format for default settings used for printing from IBMs e. Provide PC for each staff member f. Purchase additional laser printer(s) g. Survey current equipment and provide greater awareness and availability B -1

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2. Copiers a. Assign one individual responsibility for copiers in hallway locations, to insure adequate maintenance and paper supplies b. Replace both 4th floor copies with one higher volume model 3. Telephones a. Get a new long distance system or distribute OTA's Sprint number more widely C. Health, safety, and comfort issues 1. Smoking a. Provide a smoking/reading room b. Restrict smoking to open areas at guard desks c. Institute agency policy against smoking in workplace d. Designate all meetings in Conference Center as nonsmoking 2. Fitness a. Install showers and/or exercise room b. Offer aerobics, yoga classes in Conference Center after hours c. Offer workshops on physical fitness that would encourage jogging, swimming, etc. and track activity of participants 3. Provide better furniture for use with word processors 4. Improve offices with no outside windows and no air circulation 5. Limit office sharing, particularly of interior offices 6. Carry out assessment of current office automation and effects on staff health and performance as well as on assessment process 7. Hold regularly scheduled afternoon or lunch seminars on health issues 8. Nurse's office should distribute health information, pamphlets; maybe sponsor discussion groups, workshops 9. Provide bottled water (or a distiller) as alternative to taps B -2

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II. Administrative policy issues A. Personnel 1. Promotions/merit increases a. Eliminate uniform percentage scale for increases b. Allow program managers to apportion raises among program staff once budget targets are established c. Grant immediate increase with promotion to project director d. Use end of year surplus funds for merit increases rather than furniture and equipment purchases e. Provide clearer, more uniform, and more publicized criteria for promotions. f. Take more active role in identifying individuals deserving of promotion g. Personnel hired in past year have not been rewarded with paper promotions as those who came before have been 2. Job responsibilities and titles a. Rename analysts and senior analysts as policy analysts and senior policy analysts to clarify roles b. Provide better guidelines on responsibilities of Project Directors and degree of autonomy (1) Set up task force to compile documentation from all divisions and programs (2) Provide orientations for new Project Directors led by experienced PDs (3) Informal brown bag orientations (4) Orientation by CPA on press dealings (5) Assign a "point person" to assist new PDs (6) Develop a buddy system (experienced PD assigned to new one) c. Staff assigned to new projects are expected to do substantially more work than staff assigned to projects begun last year d. Provide consistency between programs 3. Institute formal maternity leave policy 4. Training Cother than computer/word processing) a. Offer more opportunities for training, particularly for support staff b. Provide financial assistance for continuing education in non-job-related fields c. Provide language courses, more writing courses, clerical skills training, organizing B -3

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5. Experiment with flexitime 6. Cut back on number of in-house contractors and temporary employees 7. Job security a. Provide temporary employees with clearer information on what to expect in terms of tenure and how much advance notice they will receive of termination b. Circulate list of those who wish to stay c. Provide assistance through counseling, seminars, list of contacts, and job opportunities outside agency; Personnel Office should provide more assistance in finding employment outside agency 8. Offer workshop on stress management 9. Develop consistent liberal policy regarding working at home 10. Improve coordination between programs and Personnel Office 11. Give further consideration to policy for handling serious illness a. Stress on program budgets b. Advance sick leave c. Need for &ubstitute personnel 12. Reduce emphasis on academic degrees, increase emphasis on demonstrated abilities and on-the-job learning 13. Remove the "incapable from positions of responsibility/ authority where they create rather than solve problems B. Travel and meeting arrangements 1. Insist on better service from Omega or replace the agency 2. Advance payment for travel scheduled after end-of-fiscal-year cutoff to take advantage of lower fares 3. Provide advance reimbursement for OTA travelers in cases where hotels require deposits 4. Revise standard letters sent out to panel members regarding limits on reimbursement 5. Require OTA travelers to report to other OTA staff about content and utility of meetings attended C. Info Center policies 1. Extend hours of operation 2. Eliminate requirement for project director approval for small purchases D. BFO should do better job of maintaining accurate, up-to-date figures B -4

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E. Contracts process 1. Provide individual contractors with adequate information on their income tax responsibilities 2. Compileand circulate a list of outside contractors already used, including comments on quality of work 3. Conduct short course or seminar for OTA staff on dealing with contractors F. Administrative Services 1. Provide clear definitions of areas of responsibility among Administrative Services staff 2. Provide better advance notification when outside personnel will be working in building to cut down theft problems G. Restore legislative calendar information to monthly directory H. Solicitation of suggestions 1. Have permanent suggestion box 2. Solicit suggestions more frequently 3. Have Director schedule regular "office hours" or lunches for purpose of soliciting staff comments and suggestions 4. Have staff suggestion committee hold luncheon or similar event to personalize the process 5. Leave off signature and program identification lines; keep all suggestions anonymous I. Consider a wastepaper recycling program B -5

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III. Organizational structure and management A. Management style 1. Competition at top a. ADs should set an example of cooperation for rest of staff b. If ADs cannot agree on policy decision, authority should be delegated to one of them and cooperation should be enforced 2. Performance feedback 3. More management by walking around 4. Delegate responsibility for agenda development for first Thursday meetings to one or group of program managers 5. Restore participation of operations managers in first Thursday meetings to provide insights across program lines 6. Budget scheduled "down time" for PDs and staff between major assessments 7. Provide outside review of OTA operations and management, an assessment of how well we address the needs of our primary client (Congress) and our secondary clients B. Cross program issues 1. Communication a. Develop more flexible crossing of program lines coupled with pockets of expertise b. Encourage program managers to identify and openly discuss structural reasons why communication problems exist c. Reinstitute OTA-wide lunches (1) Have single individual in charge of arrangements (2) Have lunches catered d. Provide more brown bag seminars and workshops e. Reward interprogram cooperation with awards, promotions f. Establish quarterly meetings of staff or PDs and PMs with AD (e.g., to discuss issues for each division, key meetings with Hill members or staff relevant to many programs g. Coffee or tea each month for new staff to meet others h. Institute "pre-assessment brainstorming form" with brief description of project, PD, and list of requestors; form could solicit suggestions for possible panel members, information sources i. Have OTA-wide meeting with Director every few months j. Hold staff retreat or picnic on regular work day for all OTA staff k. Have "nametag day" once a year, with all staff to wear tag with name and program 2. Distinctions between Health and Bio Apps unclear 3. Pool permanent slots rather than assigning them to programs or divisions C. Set aside part of OTA budget to address long-range issues of no immediate congressional interest B -6

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IV. Reports A. Length and scope 1. Narrow the scope, shorten the reports 2. Emphasize identification of enduring issues rather than shorter turnaround and superficial analysis 3. Reports are too long and too costly 4. Encourage innovation in written work and other presentations B. Methodology 1. Cultivate internal discussion about "technology assessment" methodology c. Appearance 1. Improve quality of art work on report covers 2. Coach project directors on clearer communication with artist D. Follow-on 1. Follow-up is insufficient, project staff often not retained to provide continuing information; try to retain PDs by providing environment for professional growth 2. Allow realistic amount of time for follow-up E. Deadlines 1. Be more disciplined in granting project extensions 2. Provide consistent monitoring or guidelines for monitoring project schedules/timetables F. When there is intellectual disagreement among Director, AD, PM, PD about conclusions, who makes final decision? G. Advisory panels 1. Investigate alternatives to current panel meeting format; hold workshop on workshops 2. Advisory panel candidates should know they are not on the panel until they receive written notification H. New project proposal development 1. Project screening committee should solicit comments from PM, PD 2. Add person from CPA to screening committee, invite CPA to program meetings about possible new projects 3. OTA staff tend to "sanitize" new project proposals in overreaction to congressional politics, rather than maintaining intellectual honesty 4. Look at our priorities 5. Have Director use his option to suggest studies to TAB a. ''Early warning study" to identify and assess international technology gaps and social/political issues that will arise with likely advances in biological sciences in next 20 years b. Assessment of technologies for environmental impact assessment of organisms that have been genetically engineered c. Assessment of technologies to maintain peace through management of international conflict B -7

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V. Congressional relations A. Orientation to legislative process 1. Provide orientation for new staff 2. Have CPA coordinate in-house course on regular basis B. Interaction 1. Encourage more interaction with Hill staff during assessments 2. Assign OTA staff to requesting committees for 1-3 months, with salary paid by OTA 3. Let all OTA staff interact with Congressional staff, not just project directors and above C. Develop better utilization of data base management resources to provide rapid access to data for responding to Congressional and other requests D. Number of OTA personnel permitted by Library of Congress in legislative seminars should be increased VI. Public relations (outside visitors) A. OTA does not have staff or time to respond to heavy volume of requests for interchange B. Coordinate visits at higher levels C. Provide prepared information packets D. Develop mechanism for sharing outcomes of meetings with OTA staff E. Develop an international relations department as liaison with comparable agencies in other countries F. Promote ourselves more --''OTA's a great place to work, and it's great being associated with such a well-respected organization VII. Press relations A. Improve quality of press releases B. Provide practice for video and radio interviewing with critical review c. Provide orientation for new PDs on press relations D. Seek review of OTA reports by professional journals, in addition to coverage as news items B -8

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DIVISION A -NEW PROJECTS { In Rank Order) Rank Title 1. Seismic Verification 2. Energy Outlook 3. Skills for the 21st Century 4. Technologies for Improving Productivity in Manufacturing 5. Imoact of Military Spendinq on Commercial TechnoloaiP.s 6. Electricity Demand 7. Managing International Trade 7. Wheeling of Electric Power: Constraints and Opportunities 9. Transfer of Military and Dual-use Technologies among OECD Countries 10. Technology and Terrorism 11. Job Opportunities for less Skilled Workers 12. Space Transportation for the Future: Military and Civil 13. Technology Transfer Around the Pacific Rim 14. Technologies for the Reduction of Military Costs 15. Hater and Hastewater Systems 16. Technologies for Deconmissioning Nuclear Power Plants 17. Impact of New Electronic and Optical Materials 18. Assessing the Potential for a Competitive U.S. Pollution Control Industry 19. Future Directions in Metals 19. Clean Coal Technologies 2l. The Recycling Industry, Technology and Public Policy 22. Operations and Management of a Space Station FY 86 Program ISC E&M ITE ITE ITE E&M ITE E&M ISC ISC ITE ISC ISC ISC E&M E&M E&M ITE E&M E&ff ITE ISC 10/23/85

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l986 PLANNING PACKAGE -ENERGY AND MATERIALS October 19, 1985 Attached are descriptions of five projects determined by the Program and Division to be of highest priority for possible future work by the Energy and Materials Program. A sixth project, a study of electricity demand, is also considered a high priority for future work. A writeup for this project is currently ~nderway. In addition to the projects listed, the Program currently has in process two projects for which we recently received Congressional requests but which have not yet been submitted for TAB approval. These projects are a study of the technical and economic issues relating to the U.S. copper industry and a study of technical, health and public policy considerations of increased use of alcohol as an additive for transportation fuels. Contents 1. Wheeling of Electric Power: Constraints and Opportunities 2. Energy Outlook 3. Technologies for Decommissioning Nuclear Power Plants 4. Water and Wastewater Systems 5. Impact of New Electronic and Optical Materials 6. Electricity Demand (being prepared)

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ENERGY AND MATERIALS PROGRAM -CHARTER Because en~rgy and materials resources play such a crucial role in the nation's economy and international competitiveness, the Congress will continue to have a high ievel of interest in the adequacy and development of those resource bases. Availability of these resources at reasonable prices is necessary for continued economic growth. Adequacy and development refer not only to the raw resource, but also to the technologies for conversion to useful energy forms or materials products and for the way finished products and converted energy are used. Because of economic limitations on the resource base, it is critical that it be developed as efficiently as possible. The Congress affects this development through economic and environmental legislation, research and development funding, and legislation which sets economic policy. The Energy and Materials Program is responsible for assisting the Congress in understanding the technological possibilities for developing our energy and materials resources, and the consequences of these developments for society. In this way we can help the Congress ensure rational resource development such that economic growth is maintained, undesirable side effects are kept to a minimum, and the resource base is sustained for future generations. The Energy and Materials Program covers those technologies that concern the extraction, delivery and use of energy and materials. Although primarily directed at domestic resources, the Program also is concerned with world markets and policies, including imports and exports of energy and materials. The subject areas of the Program fall naturally into two categories. In energy, we examine energy resources and extraction, and energy conversion and

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demand technologies. These are the same areas of responsibility in energy that the Program has covered since its inception. The materials area includes materials resources minerals and mineral extraction and preparation, and the development of new or advanced materials for use in new applications or for materials substitution in existing applications. In the latter case, we consider the technical properties of the materials, the range of applications which can make use of those properties, the new or modified manufacturing processes required to bring about these applications, and the potential effects on the economy of introducing those materials and manufacturing practices. (The latter area potentially overlaps the Industry, Technology and Employment, and Communications and Information Technologies Programs.) An important concern of studies on advanced materials is the effectiveness of research and development programs in helping the nation receive maximum benefits from these materials. Finally, because of its importance, the application of advanced materials and materials technology to maintenance, repair and rehabilitation of the nation's public works infrastructure (e.g., roads and bridges, waste treatment systems) will be a responsibility of this program.

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WHEELING OF ELECTRIC POWER: CONSTRAINTS AND OPPORTUNITIES Relevance A recent trend toward increased competition in the electric power industry is typEfied by a number proposals by utilities to construct unregulated gene~ting facilities as well as implementation of the Public Utilities Regulatory Policies Act of 1978, which has prompted rapid growth in non-utility cogeneration and small power generation facilities. Accompanying this trend are pressures on utilities to provide "wheeling" services for other utilities, retail customers, and non-utility generators. Wheeling of electric power refers to a utility's provision of power transmission services for a third party, i.e., another utility or a nonutility customer. Proponents of increased competition in the power industry view the lack of transmission access and wheeling as a major impediment to achieving a more efficient electric power supply system. These proponents fall into two major groups: (1) those that favor a full "common carrier" status for the power grid where a utility would be compelled to provide nondiscriminatory transmission services to any party requesting them, and (2) those who wish to expand the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's existing authority to mandate wheeling. Opponents to mandatory wheeling, argue that the present voluntary sys.tem has worked well and that mandatory transmission access could compromise system reliability. In addition, mandatory wheeling would in effect eliminate a utility's territorial franchise without relieving it of it's obligation to serve all customers in its service territory. Thus, by allowing some customers to "shop around" and purchase offsystem power, the fixed costs of generating capacity planned and installed to serve all customers would be borne by the remaining "captive" customers. Issues to be Addressed In assuring reliable system operation, a utility must maintain control of its transmission and distribution network. In addition to reliability concerns, utilities may experience operational difficulties in scheduling bulk power transfers and maintaining load following capability as the level of off-system purchases increases. The focus of the proposed study will be on assessing the technical impediments to increased wheeling of power. In particular, the study will examine the reliability and operating constraints limiting increased wheeling and extent to which the existing U.S. transmission system could accommodate various degrees of increased wheeling. The assessment would assist Congress in reviewing proposals dealing with expanding Federal authority in wheeling matters, increasing access to Canadian power exports in U.S. markets, promoting bulk power transfers as part of regional regional power planning, and a variety of other issues affecting U.S. electricity supply.

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IS THERE STILL AN ENERGY PROBLEM? Relevance Congressional interest in energy has declined considerably in the last several months. The substantial drop in real oil prices, flat or declining energy demand, and the apparent success of the market have greatly reduced the perception and, perhaps, the reality of energy as being a serious problem for our country. As a consequence, Congressional activities concerning energy have concentrated on specific legislative actions such as natural gas pricing, coal slurry pipelines, and research and development programs. Despite the dearth of activity there remains an underlying uneasiness about the nation's energy situation. Many believe that the current period is just a lull and that the market has not sufficiently reordered to accommodate prior price increases and future supply shifts. The next 15 to 25 years remain very uncertain. Major concerns are the resiliency of our energy economy in terms of its ability to weather further shocks or other unexpected occurrences over the next several years, and the effects of uncertain supply and any future rapid price changes on maintaining stable economic growth. While none of these concerns are now the direct subject of Congressional debate or legislative initiatives, they are an unspoken part of much of the domestic 4nd international attention of the Congress and the public. Issues to be Addressed Given the wide range of OTA studies on energy over the last several years and the uncertainty about the current state of energy in the world, it may be an appropriate time to consolidate the knowledge contained in those studies along with the Program's collective experience and wisdom about energy to try and answer the question of whether there remains an energy problem. This study would not be a look at alternative energy futures but an assessment of the current situation and of the uncertainties about the future. The study would focus on the following issues or questions. What are weaknesses about the current situation, e.g., the low level of conservation investments taking place in residential buildings, the lack of progress in alternative liquid fuel development? How effective is the market in determining an orderly development of our energy supply and demand mix in light of our economy's requirements? What are the factors that will determine our energy future for the next two to three decades and what are the uncertainties about that future?Finally, given the major uncertainties and potential problems, what is the range of policy response available?

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Relevance TECHNOLOGIES FOR DECOMMISSIONING NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS Some of the first commercial nuclear power plants built in the U.S. will be decommissioned over the next few years. If the cost of decommissioningproves to be lower than plant life extension, the number of plants decommissioned per year could grow over the remainder of the Century. Three technologies have been identified for decommissioning nuclear power plants. The first, Decon, completely dismantles the plant and decontaminates or removes all contaminated or dangerous materials to approved storage sites. The former plant site is then released to unrestricted use. The second, Safstor, involves removal of reactor core, limited decontamination, and securing containment structure and equipment for 30-50 years. The third, Entomb, involves limited decontamination of work areas, confinement of rad!9a~~ivt m1t1.i1l1 in ,gnt&inment veasel, and 1ealing containment doors and penetrations with concrete. The latter also calls for maintaining plant security for 100 years under an ammended license. The technologies become less expensive as one moves from method 1 to 3, but risks of security breaches and external contamination and pollution increase in that order. Because a large number of plants could be decommissioned over the next twenty years, there is the potential for creating a severe contamination and pollution problem. Furthermore, if decommissioning is carried out by private firms that later go out of business, it would be difficult to obtain compensation for the resultant damages. On the other hand, imposing overly stringent decommissioning requirements could put additional, unnecessary financial strain on electric utilities. Issues to be Addressed The assessment would examine the decommissioning technologies to define the severity and nature of the trade-off between cost and performance and to identify new technologies that could reduce costs and/or improve efficacy. In addition to examining the general features and costs of different decommissioning strategies, the study would 1) examine the efficacy of specific procedures, such as decontamination of metals through ultrasonic cleaning followed by electropolishing, 2) define the quantity and nature of the pollutants and contaminants involved, and 3) evaluate the risks and consequences of mishaps. To the extent it is not covered in another OTA study, the assessment would also examine the costs and constraints associated with extending the life of nuclear power plants. Based on these analyses, the study would develop various scenarios for decommissioning the existing stock of nuclear power plants, define the decision points, and describe the nature of the public policy decisions involved. The study would also identify the additional information needed to make informed decisions at each decfsion point.

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WATER AND WASTEWATER SYSTEMS Relevance The ina
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maintenance, repair, replacement, or expansion needs (and the methods for analyzing th~ tradeoffs among those alternatives), and their health, resource, economic, and environmental impacts; and 3) an analysis of the roles of curr:ent 'Federal, State, and local policies and the interrelationships.among them, and how those policies might be changed to encourage a systems approach to developing longterm, cost-effective, programs that are responsive to new technologies and materials. An important part of the study will be the examination of the interactions between wate~ and wastewater systems and economic development.

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IMP~T OF NEW ELECTRONIC AND OPTICAL MATERIALS Relevance In virtually every area of "high technology", progress is limited by the properties of available materials. In most cases, the existing properties are nowhere near the theoretical limits, so that large improvements are possible. Recent examples of significant advances are the improved absorption and dispersion characteristics of fiber optic cables and the faster switching speeds of gallium arsenide semiconductor devices, compared with silicon-based systems. Such developments as these are revolutionizing the telecommunications and microelectronics fields. Products based on new electronic and optical materials, which have a high "information content", represent an excellent area of opportunity for American firms; they can become strong international competitors in these markets, due in part to the breadth of the science base which has been built up over the years. Many of the associated technologies are spinoffs from military research programs, and represent opportunities to capture some of the fruits of defense dollar expenditures for the civilian economy. Issues to be Addressed This assessment will identify the applications of materials technologies which are expected to become critical to the economy in the future. It will analyze the technical barriers to the achievement of properties necessary for use of the materials in these applications. The international competitiveness of US firms in these fields will be considered, and special attention will be given to the problem of transferring technology from military to civilian spheres. Finally, the likely impacts of the arrival of these technologies will be addressed.

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PROJECTS FOR OTHER PROGRAMS Science in Education --Scientific and technical knowledge has increased so much over the past several decades that the education system in the United States has not kept pace. The average, even college educated, person in this country probably lacks sufficient expertise to understand most of the many serious scientific and technical questions facing society in the 198Os. An OTA study might examine the quantity and content of science curricula taught from elementary schools through universities. It could examine test scores or other indicators of the population's depth and breadth of scientific knowledge and identify areas of strength and weakness. An important part of this study would be to determine how serious this insufficient understanding might be in terms of excessive rejection or acceptance of technical change in our society. Particular attention could be paid to the following questions: (1) What is the current quantity and quality of science teachers at all levels? (2) Have recent attempts to recruit science and math teachers for high schools been successful? (3) What assumptions shape the current curricula? (4) Do students elect to take science courses when they have electives and if not, why? (5) Do universities and colleges encourage non-science students to take science and technology courses? (6) Could science elective courses be better designed for non-science major students? Large-Facility Science --Many basic science R&D programs are moving to larger and larger machines which are using an expanding share of R&D resources. This leaves less to pursue smaller programs, and it tends to concentrate the R&D activities at a smaller number of institutions. The high-energy physics program has experienced this phenomenon for a number of years, and other programs such as plasma physics, space sciences, condensed matter physics, materials science and many of the biological sciences are now experiencing it. One of the major questions raised by this trend is the degree to which it inhibits or accelerates progress in these fields. In particular, the Congress is interested in how these fields of science would fare if these large facilities were postponed for extended periods--possibly decades. Is there a critical size for research projects or annual expenditures, below which the potential for advancement falls off sharply? Weather Prediction Technologies --The recent passage of hurricane Gloria raised again the importance of weather forecasting. The Earth's atmosphere is probably the most complicated physical system we face on a daily basis. This makes accurate forecasting of the weather very difficult even for short time periods. The cost of improving weather forcasting is also quite high because of the enormous amount of data that would have to be collected and processed. Yet the benefits of more accurate forecasts could be very large in terms of lives saves, reduced damage and more reliable planning for weather dependant events. Because of Congressional responsibility for authorizing money for weather monitoring and research, and the consequences of inaccurate forecasts of weather for the well-being of the nation, the Congress has considerable interest in the development of a better understanding of the weather. This study would examine the scientific and technical requirements for improved weather prediction, the potential for improving forecasting technology, and the benefits that could accrue from such improvements.

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PROGRAM CHARTER ITE PROGRAM TABLE OF CCJttITENTS 1. TECl-f,,IOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING PRODUCTIVITY IN "1AtllUFACTURING 2. ASSESING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COMPETITIVE U.S. POLLUTICl'II CCJttITROL INDUSTRY 3. MANAGING INTERNATICNAL TRADE 4. SKILLS FOR THE 215t CENTURY 5. JOB OPPORTlNITIES FOR LESS SKILLED WORKERS 6. IMPACTS OF MILITARY SPENDING Cl'II COMMERCIAL TECl-f,,IOLOGIES

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Industry, Technology and Employment (ITE) Program Charter 9/23/85 The ITE Program will examine how technology affects the ability of U.S. industry to contribute to a healthy national economy. Its charter includes consideration of the competitiveness of U.S. industries in international markets, the number and nature of employment opportunities, needs for worker education, training and retraining, and ways to ease adjustment in structural economic transitions. The ITE Program will address the role of industrial diversity in an advanced economy and the extent to which domestic basiC industries are essential to the economic health of the United States. It will examine the institutions and policies that could help to revitalize troubled basic industries through the application of improved technologies and management strategies. The Program will consider how future growth industries might be encouraged, will analyze policies that would permit new, highly competitive industries to realize their potential, and will identify current domestic and foreign policies that limit such growth. ITE will consider foreign policies and international aspects only as they affect the competitiveness of U.S. industries in international markets; when the focus of the work is on effects in foreign countries, the International Security and Commerce (ISC) Program will take the lead. There is justifiable concern that the U.S. is losing its ability to compete in some basic industries and is even losing ground in newer industries founded on advanced technologies, that we may become increasingly dependent on imports, and that U.S. living standards may erode. The ITE Program will ivestigate how technical developments may mitigate ehese trends. The ITE Program will tackle the questions of competition, productivity, industrial transition, employment and training that will be of continuing importance in the years ahead. The ITE Program is concerned with policies to facilitate the development and dissemination of commercial and generic, pre-competitive technologies that would improve the competitive posture of U.S. industry. The Program's charter does NOT include the evaluation of the health of the basic science enterprise in the U.S.; this work will be undertaken in the SET Program. Development of new technologies is a fundamentally different activity from s~tific research, even when the interrelationships are close. This distinction is not widely understood. Certainly the existence of good basic R&D (and enough of it) is important to U.S. industry, particularly in the longer term; however, the technology component of the solution to short and medium term competitiveness problems lies more with making the products and services of basic R&D into workhorse technologies than with basic research itself. A Program with a specific employment focus is new at OTA, although most assessments have considered employment impacts, and employment and training issues have been of central importance in several, most notably the recently completed Manufacturing Automation assessment, and the ongoing Office Automation

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study, both in the Communication and Information Technologies (CIT) Program. The current assessment in ITE on Reemployment of Adult Displaced Workers is helping us to identify fruitful areas to explore with Committee staff. Fundamentally, ItE1semployment concerns center on the quantity, nature and quality of jobs, tpe nature of and changes in job skills, and training and retraining across the work force. The Program's charter does NOT include education at the K through 12 level or the general health of the U.S. educational enterprise. There are several other Programs, besides SET and ISC, (discussed above) that address topics related to ITE's charter. For example, the Energy and Materials (E&M) Program (among other topics) will examine how advanced materials may be used in new products and some of the difficulties in manufacturing products from advanced materials. The ITE Program, however, would take the lead in determining the effect of new materials on the competitiveness of a U.S. industry, or of U.S. manufacturing.

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TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING PRODUCTIVITY IN MANUFACTURING Relevance. Productivity is perhaps the most important single factor in determining the !nternational competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing industries. Yast OIA stuo1es, .beg1nn1ng w1th the steel assessment, have pointed to a set of problems all of which are associated with production systems. Some are matters of hardware, while others are managerial and institutional. The hardware dimensions --surface coatings that can reduce wear rates for cutting tools and forming dies, heat treating cycles to minimize energy consumption --directly affect costs and hence competitiveness. Technologies associated with more or less conventional casting, forming, cutting, joining and fabricating remain foundations for much of U.S. industry. In the future, newer hardware technologies, particularly those associated with nonmetallic materials, will have critical effects on productivity. One example is nondestructive inspection, a matter of vital importance for materials as different as brittle ceramics and layered composites. Inspection techniques are critical for mass production applications of such materials, which in turn will affect productivity and competitiveness quite broadly within the U.S. economy. Software questions begin with institutions. It appears that the United States has failed to support the technical base for manufacturing, diffuse new developments to industry, and invest in the capital equipment and human skills needed for implementing new manufacturing methods and moving toward integrated production systems as rapidly as several other nations. 4oftware also carries a second implication: organization of the production system to make use of new technologies. New manufacturing technologies bring new problems in the design and management of production systems, along with new opportunities. Indeed, the technological ferment of the next 20 years may match that of the first two decades of the century, when the modern system of factory production developed. Today, the key problem lies in the integration of various forms of automation with people in manufacturing organizations. This is a matter of achieving greater flexibility in product designs, in the organization of production, and in the matching of the design of jobs with the skills of the workforce as achieved by training and retraining. Corporations --and nations --that do the best job will move ahead in their respective competitive races. Issues To Be Addressed. At the heart of this study are infrastructural and institutional questions: 1. Who develops new manufacturing technologies? Who pays? Does the system work as well in the United States as in our major economic rivals? 2. What are the incentives and disincentives for applying the technologies? 3. How does their availability affect corporate decisions to invest in new capital equipment .Q.I. in new productions that could only be made with new manufacturing methods? 4. How will the application of new manufacturing technologies be affected by the skills of the workforce, including the social and organizational skills of workers and managers?

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ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COMPETITIVE U.S. POLLUTION CONTROL INDUSTRY Relevance: The United States has shown considerable leadership in addressing environmental pQllution problems. U.S. environmental programs have broadened in recent years and will require major economic and technical resources in the future. Although'a pollution control industry is difficult to identify, clearly there is substantial national resources in this area. While some of the industrialized nations have also addressed environmental problems, the U.S. very likely has the most comprehensive and the largest program and may have considerable advanced pollution control technology. Much of American industry and society has perceived a conflict between protecting human health and the environment and avoiding heavy burdens on manufacturing and processing industry which may reduce profits, jobs, and international competitiveness. Already, some major U.S. companies with internal experience have developed new business operations in pollution control. What most people have not realized is that the rest of the world will likely catch up with the U.S. in the scope and stringency of pollution control requirements. Moreover, it is becoming increasingly clear that environmental problems transcend national borders, and that pollution control has to be a goal of all countries if the global environment is to be safe. Considering today's concerns with the state of U.S. industry, trade deficits, and international competitiveness, this is an ideal time to assess the potential for the international market opportunities in pollution control. Could U.S. design, engineering, manufacturing, and construction experience developed for domestic pollution control become a dominant and profitable force in world markets? Could a perceived burden on industry be turned into a substantial new industry? Might the U.S. have a comparative advantage because of the substantial investments already made in environmental protection? Issues: There are two primary issues to be examined. First, even though it may not now be defined as a unique industrial sector, is there now--or might there be in the near future--a U.S. pollution control industry with competitive advantages over other industrialized nations? What other industrialized nations have entered or may enter this international market, and what advantages might they have? Second, what are the international market opportunities for U.S. pollution control technology, equipment, and services? Is it possible to calculate approximately the potential size of the international pollution control market? It would be necessary to assess the extent to which U.S. expertise and experience can be used by other nations to solve their present and future problems. For a variety of reasons it may be necessary to adapt what has been found to be effective in the U.S. to local conditions, needs, and constraints. Finally, it will be necessary to examine how Federal policies might affect the development and success of such a new U.S. industry. For example, might there be a role for the government to act as a "catalyst" to focus attention on the potential benefits of developing such an export oriented U.S. industry? Do current tax, trade, foreign relations and environmental policies present barriers or assistance for such industrial development? This assessment could be of interest to Congressional committees, in the areas of trade, economic development policy, international competitiveness, employment, science and technology, "foreign relations and environmental policy.

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10/2/85 MANAGING INTERN.CITIONAL TRADE RELEVANCE Frt tradt dots not exist and protectionism has btcomt a meaningless term. To get beyond the sttrility of recent debates, we need new language. The probltm is a real one. For the fors1eabl1 future, American industries will be competing at home and abroad not only with Japan1s1 firms and those in other advanced industrial tconomits, but with txporters from dtvtloping countries. More and more, producers in thest countries will be able to counterbalance their technological disadvantages, which art shrinking, with cheap labor. Vast labor pools, new attitudes toward economic development
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10/2/85 SKILLS FOR THE 21st CENTURY RELEVANCE OTA's rt-emplo)'llent study shows that unskilltd and stmiskilltd Amtricans art most vulntrablt to displacemtnt. Other ass1sm1nts have indicated that skills shortag,s can curtail tconanic expansion as well as tfforts to dtal with problems such as hazardous wast, disposal. Everyont agr1ts on tht nttd for educational rtform, though not on tht type of reform. Postindustrial ism implits that m1ntal skills art btcaning mort vital than manual skills, but 1vtn within OTA people disagrtt on whtthtr camputtr littracy m,ans btlng ablt to ust tht machine or to grasp santthing of the logic of Its softwart. This study would focus on what is arguably tht most important sit of issuts, tht links bttwttn tht skills and abilltits of the American labor forct and tht futurt needs of campttitivt industrits. ISSUES 1. What is tht naturt of tht skill bast on which industrial campetitivtntss dtptnds? Evtn unskilled worktrs must possess a widt rang, of vtry real abiliti1s1 social skills and a certain wlllingn1ss to conform to tht discipline of tht workplac11 sent limittd but real probl1m-solving skills. Littracy may or may not bt n1c1ssary, but connunicatlon c1rtainly is. skilltd worktrs rtly on broadtr and dttper storts of tacit know-how as well as wtll-codifltd knowltdge
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JOB OPPORTUNITIES FOR LESS SKILLED WORKERS The number of ma~ufacturing jobs -especially the production jobs open to less skilled workers:_ is shrinking, while jobs in the service sector are greatly expanding. Technological change, impelled to a large degree by foreign competition, is forcing shifts both in the numbers and nature of jobs in both the goods-producing and service-producing sectors. This study would consider what kind of jobs the American economy is now creating that can be filled by workers with relatively little education or training. It would also consider the skill needs of competitive industries, and how these workers can most effectively be trained in those skills. RELEVANCE: The reemployment study found that the American workers most vulnerable to displacement are those in unskilled and semiskilled jobs, especially manufacturing jobs. Opportunities to get these kinds of jobs are also disappearing for young people just entering the labor market. With the shift to service sector jobs and demands for different skills in the remaining manufacturing jobs, it is not clear what jobs will be open for people with a limited education or set of skills. Better understanding of the changes taking place in these jobs would be useful not only to displaced workers, but even more so to young people still in school. ISSUES: 1. On an industry-specific basis, what jobs formerly open to workers with less than professional and technical skills are disappearing, and what are the technological changes involved in the shifts? What jobs remain, and what new kinds of jobs are being created? What is the nature of the skills required for these jobs? What social skills (ability to get along with other workers, take responsibility) are required, what problem-solving abilities, what reading and math skills? What technical or manual skills are required, in addition to these generic skills? What are the earnings and advancement possibilities in the new jobs? A case study approach, including service industries and goodsproducing industries, might be most useful in answering these questions. 2. What is the role for publicly supported vocational education in teaching marketable skills to young people who don't intend to go past a high school education? What policies can better link vocational education in the schools with the changing job market? What is the potential for new technologies in improving or changing vocational education? What policies could help implement their use? 3. How can improvement of vocational education be linked with attention to better general education and openness of choice for students who decide late in their school career in favor of higher education? 4. Do private businesses organize work and train workers on the job in ways that offer both entry-level jobs and opportunities for advancement to nonprofessional, nontechnical workers? Can the private sector contribute more effectively both to fitting jobs to workers' skills and improving workers' skills to meet the needs of competitive industries?

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RELEVANCE 10/2/SS IMPACTS OF MILITARY SPENDING CJ,f CCN'1ERCIAL TECH'IIOLOGIES Some p1opl1 haut argutd for a U.S. industrial policy based on military/space projects --a moonshot goal that galuanizts public interest and support, or a quitter pol icy bastd on continuing h1auy def1ns1 sptnding. Today, with some F1d1ral agtncies claiming that the Strat1gic Defense Initiatiu1 will b1 a strong stimulus for civilian high-technology industries, th tim1 s11ms right to rt-examine a fundamental set of questions in technology policy1 o Jim! do procur1m1nt and R&D 1xp1nditur1s by tht D1partm1nt of D1f1ns1 (and NASA) afftct the d1u1lopm1nt of civilian, conn1rcial technologits? o Which industries b1n1fit th most from DoD and NASA sp1nding? Do heavy R&D 1xp1ndltur1s for defense distort industrial d1u1lopm1nt in nations likt th1 United Statts and th Unittd Kingd011, as compar1d, say, to Japan and Wist G1rmany? o What is the balanc1 of b1n1fits and costs fr0111 t1chnology dtu1lopm1nt aimed at defense and space? Do military and spac1 programs claim th best and the bright1st among American engineers and sci1ntists, w1akening civilian industri,s? Dots the United Stat1s, as a whole, underinuest in commtrcial t1chnology development? Or, as other nations claim, do military and space 1xpenditures strut as an implicit subsidy for civilian industries, providing U.S. firms with significant competitiut advantages in high technology? o Given that the United States will continu1 to sptnd larg1 sums on defens1related technologies, haw can the positiu1 impacts on th1 civilian economy be maximized? Tht wall b1tw1en military and civilian firms setms to bt a high on,, as does the wall betwe1n the military and commtrcial divisions of many companits that do both . Is this good or bad? Haw can the United States speed the transfer and adaptation of military technologies to commercial Industries? ISSUES TO BE ADDRESSED 1. Is it true that military and commercial technologies are, in gen1ral, steadily diverging, so that spinoffs from military projects art less potent today than two or three d1cades ago, synergies l1ss productive? This qutstion is usually framtd in t1rms of the product/process outputs of R&D and procurem1nt --wide-body aircraft, fib1r-r1inforctd composites. Alternatively, It could be framtd in terms of technical knowledge and 1ngine1ring design/analysis procedurts -finite-element methods, automated debugging of comput1r programs. Looking at sources of know-haw would give us a n1w cut at this question. 2. What, specifically, are the probable spinoffs from SDI? Which technologies are likely to have substantial civilian applications? Haw will the significance of component and subsystem technologits (faster int1grated circuits, more powerful lasers> compare with system-level technologies (computer-based command and control>? Will the most important spinoffs b1 engineering methods or products/process1s th1ms1lues?

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THE ISC PROGRAM CHARTER The ISC Program deals with national security, international relations generally, and international technology transfers. As a program, we specialize in particular kinds of issues, rather than in any particular technology or class of technologies. However, many individual members of the program have strong backgrounds in one or more technical areas as well as in international questions. Our work in national security deals with "big questions" which are of interest to many Members of Congress in addition to those on the Armed Services Committees, Defense Appropriations Subcommittees, or Foreign Relations/Affairs Committees. Our distinctive contribution is to get a feel for what is technologically possible (or probable) and then to assess the likely impacts of these technological considerations on national security, with national security understood to include international stability, diplomacy, alliance relations, and arms control as well as deterrence and defense. In the future, national security may also include defense against terrorism. Our work in technology transfer combines several perspectives: the national security and foreign policy considerations that lie behind export controls; a concern for the health and competitiveness of U.S. industry in international markets; and a concern for the objective of managing technology transfer in such a way as to contribute to favorable international economic development. In doing so, we often interact with other programs which focus on the technologies to be transferred: thus the Health Program assisted with our work on sales of medical equipment and services in the Middle East, and the E & M programs assisted with our work on the transfer of energy technologies to China. Almost all technology transfer work involves a link

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2 with the ITE program, since both programs are concerned with the competitiveness of U.S. industries. The critical determinant of ISC interest is a focus upon the foreign recipient of technology transfers; a study which focussed upon American industries would probably be carried out in another program. In addition, we feel that we have a general assignment to understand the interactions of trade in technology with international diplomacy. This could lead !SC.to be the proper home of an OTA assessment whose principal thrust is international policy considerations regarding particular technologies, or it could mean that ISC has a responsibility to offer assistance to other OTA programs when they assess international aspects of technologies in which they are expert. A special issue is the area of space technologies. At present, OTA has no program with primary responsibility for space assessments; the presumption is that space transportation is a subset of transportation; materials ~rocessin~ in space a subset Qf mAtetiala; and international diplomacy regarding space a proper topic for !SC. However, it happens that the ISC staff includes several people who are quite expert in various aspects of space technology, and this gives ISC a responsibility to consider how we can help any such effort.

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STAFF MEMO Oct 23, 1985 ,, TO: "Wye at Rockville Participants FROM: Peter Sharfman,~Jlf' SUBJECT: ISC New Projects The following list is in order of priority, as these priorities are seen by the Program. We have tended to give lower priorities to projects which, although very important, could not begin in the near future. Apart from the projects listed here, we consider it extremely likely that we will be doing extensive follow-on work related to our BMD and ASAT (i.e. star wars) projects, and resources for this are in our FY 86 budget. For the record, one additional possible project (Operations and Management of a Space Station) was rated higher than two of these projects.by the Program, but dropped out as a result of the Division A vote. It is of interest that three out of the six projects span the dividing line between civilian and military concerns. One project is mostly civilian, and two are mostly military. 1. Seismic Verification of Nuclear Test Ban Treaties 2. Space Transportation for the future: military and civil 3. Security Implications of Technology Transfer (military and dual-use) among OECD countries 4. New Technologies for Counterterrorism 5. Technologies for Defense Cost Control 6. Technology, Markets and Policies in the Pacific Rim. cc: ISC Staff

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MISC P1tOGRAM CHARTEB. n deals with national security, international relations Th ISC srogram generally, and international technology transfers. As a program, we specialize in particular kinds of issues, rather than in any particular technology or class of technologies. However, many individual members of the program have strong backgrounds in one or more technical areas as well as in international questions. Our work in national security deals with "big questions which are of interest to many Members of Congress in addition to those on the Armed Services Committees, Defense Appropriations Subcommittees, or Foreign Relations/Affairs Committees. Our distinctive contribution is to get a feel for what is technologically possible (or probable) and then to assess the likely impacts of these technological considerations on national security, with national security under~tood to include international stability, diplomacy, alliance relations, and arms control as well as deterrence and defense. In the future, national security may also include defense against terrorism. Our work in technology transfer combines several perspectives: the national security and foreign policy considerations that lie behind export controls; a concern for the health and competitiveness of U.S. industry in inte~tional markets; and a concern for the objective of managing technology transfer in such a way as to contribute to favorable international economic development. In doing so, we often interact with other programs which focusd on the technologies to be transferred: thus the Health Program assisted with our work on sales of medical equipment and services in the Middle East, and the E & M programs assisted with our work on the transfer of energy technologies to China. Almost all technology transfer work involves a link

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2 with the ITE prdgram, .. ,.since both programs are concerned with the 'I, competitiveness -o( U.S. industries. The critical determinant of ISC interest is a focus upon the forei&D recipienc of technology transfers; a study which focussed upon American industries would probably be carried out in another program. In addition, we feel that we have a general assignment to understand the interactions of trade in technology with international diplomacy. This could lead ISC to be the proper home of an OTA assessment whose principal thrust is international policy considerations regarding particular technologies, or it could mean that ISC has a responsibility to offer assistance to other OTA programs when they assess international aspects of technologies in which they are expert. A special issue is the area of space technologies. At present, OTA has no program with primary responsibility for space assessments; the presumption is that space transportation is a subset of transportation; materials processing in space a subset of materials; and international diplomacy regarding space a proper topic for ISC. However, it happens that the iSC staff includes several people who are quite expert in various aspects of space technology, and this gives ISC a responsibility to consider how we can help any such effort.

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SEISMIC VERIFICATION OF NUCLEAR TEST BAN TREATIES RELEVANCE A growing number otCongressman (currently 205) and Senators (77) have expressed inte-.Pet in ratifying the Threshold Test Ban Treaty, and in reswaing negot{aeions on a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty as a first step towards arms control. Of concern, however, is the condition that the United States has verification methods capable of insuring Soviet compliance, particularly in view of indications that Soviet violations may have occurred .. The technical issues that are of specific interest are: llbat is the accuracy of the present method for determining explosive yield from the magnitude of seismic body waves? Can explosions be "decoupled" or muffled by setting them off in large underground cavities or in low coupling material such as dry aluviU11? Could an explosion be effectively hidden in the reverberations of a distant earthquake? Recent technology breakthroughs in seismic instrumentation and methodology show promise for dramatically improving our capabilities in these areu. An independent review of the new technologies would be a timely assessment. ISSUES TO BE ADDRESSED A) A recent series of studies indicates that a new method, employing surfac~ waves, may now be used to estimate Soviet yields with enhanced reliability. The current method uses body waves which are greatly affected by regional variations. It is the value assigned to this "bias" between the geology of the different testing sites that has caused debate and provided soma basis for our contrary assertions about probable Soviet behavior .. Surface waves are less affected by geological variations. Preliminary test results indicate that the current method may be in need of revision and that previous estimates of Soviet explosions might have been incorrect. B) An experiment was recently undertaken to test extraordinarily sensitive seismic sensors that have been designed specifically to capture the high frequency signals created by decoupled nuclear explosions. These high frequencies are produced by explosions but not by earthquakes. Thus, the seismi~ waves from a nuclear explosion may be detected and recognized by their frequency characteristics even if they are accompanied by those of an earthquake. The higher frequencies also do not appear to be as affected by the procedure of decoupling an explosion in a large cavity. Thus, shifting the attention of the monitoring system to frequencies higher than those previously studied could be a major breakthrough in the detection of even the most surreptitious low yield explosions. C) Ratification of the Threshold Test Ban Treaty would result in an exchange of data called for in the treaty's protocol. llhat effect would this data exchange have on improving our verification? How could future arms control agreements be made to take into account the new technologies, so as to reduce our levels of uncertainty and increase our confidence in verification methods?

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SPACE TRANSPORTATION 2000 DalBello Bnckground The U.S. Space Shuttle was originally intended to provide all U.S. space cransportatienin,eed'S'_' through the end of the century. However, the high cost and uncertain t-eliability of the system, combined with the specific space transpo.rtation needs of the private sector, NASA's space station, and DoD' s space programs suggest that the Shuttle may not be able to meet all the nation's launch needs. New milita~y requirements generated by the Strategic Defense Initiative and the perceived need for "assured access to space have led DoD to advocate a number of advanced, heavy-lift ELV concepts. In addition, DoD is also examining the value of small, transatmospheric vehicles (TAV's) which could serve the role as tactical space planes. NASA, for its part, has indicated a preference for future reliance on new "Shuttle-derived vehicles. NASA's current need for a space vehicle which can simultaneously serve as a research base, a launch platform for commerical vehicles, and as a tool to build and resupply the space station may be at odds with DoD requirements. In addition, Government R&D programs which result in systems operated and subsidized by the Government could limi~ the ability of the private sector to market current and future generations of commercial launch services. Finally, given NASA's pursuit of international space station cooperation and the 00D's pursuit of international SDI cooperation, it is important to examine what role the Europeans and the Japanese might play in the development of future U.S. space transportation systems. ISSUES: 1) Should NASA continue to be the focus of space transportation development in the U.S.? 2) Do current militar, and civilian requirements dictate independent vehicle design? 3) What effect will advanced Government research have on private space transportation initiatives? 4) Should the Government continue to compete with the private sector for commercial launch opportunities? For how long? 5) Is there a role for international cooperation in the development of new civilian and military space transportation systems?

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Epstein October 23, 1985 SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER AMONG OECD COUNTRIES QLEVANCI The United.States has been tightening controls placed on technology transfer to itf ~llies in an effort to stem the flow of Western military and dual-use techn~l~gy to the Soviet Union. These controls affect not only the export of hardware, but also of information; export regulations are being used increasinJlY to deny allied scientists access to U.S. technical meetings. Export controls are becoming more stringent at the same time that the United States is urging its allies to shoulder more of the burden Yor their own defense, and at the same time that the United States is inviting an unprecedented degree of allied participation in researching technologies for strategic defense. Meanwhile, allied needa for co-production agreements and a true "two-way street" of defense trading puts increasing pressure on the United States to share its technology and expertise. The regulation of international technology transfer will have major implications, which can perhaps be most directly addressed in several case studies drawn from the following areas: o development and production of improved NATO conventional defenses o internationalization of research under the Strategic Defense Initiative o international cooperation in the Space Station project o international trade in computers and processors. ISSUES TQ BE ADDRESSED o What mechanisms have been set up to implement military cooperation between the U.S. and OECD countries in the past, and what have the effects of this cooperation been? o What are the reasons for the recent United States shift in policy on export of military and dual-use technologies? What has been the Allied response to this shift? Do our goals or our perceptions differ significantly? o What are our policy choices for conducting cooperative research or procurement programs with respect to subcontracting, intellectual property rights, and funding? o What effects could various technology transfer policies have on the ability and the inclination of U.S. allies to provide for their own defense? What would be the likely effects of cooperative procurement policies on the U.S. balance of trade? o What effects could technology transfer policy have on the continued competitiveness of U.S. high technology corporations in the presence of foreign competition? o What effects could technolqgy transfer policy have on the ability of U.S. researchers to communicate with their colleagues in the United States and to take advantage of expertise developed outside the country?

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lEN TECHNOLOGIES FOR COUNTERTERRORISM --. RELEVANCE 10i18/85 AF The cofltinuation of terrorist attacks against United States properties, diplomats, and citizens in the U.S. and throughout the world is a source of concern and frustration to policymakers in this country. The use of advanced technologi~s in -several diverse fields could be examined and developed in order to produce useful tools in the effort to render our human and material assets more secure. One area of interest in this regard could be explosives detectors. These have been used for years in nuclear and other sensitive facilities !n order to screen people and vehicles who enter the site. Today's commercial detectors may be of limited use in the case of personnel carrying small amounts of explosives, since current methods usually test for volatile cheaicals which leave the surface of the explosive material and enter its immediate environment. Good containers could successfully counter such means of detection. How~ver, there are a number of technologies which, if further developed, might lea~ to effective methods for detecting explosives, particularly in large quantity. For example, if one wishes to exaaine things, rather than people, the safety problem is greatly reduced and it becomes possible to take advantage of nuclear interrogation methods. This would involve the use of neutrons or gamma rays to probe an object. Upon irradiation, different nuclei produce distinctive signatures of stimulated radiation. Relative quantitin of elements could be assessed. Further, the absorption of the gamma ray probes may provide additional information as to the nature of the material being inspected. If developed and refined, these methods could be useful in detecting explosives in baggage or, possibly, in empty vehicles. Further, adaptations of more classical techniques, which detect tr.aces of explosives in the atmosphere, may be useful when applied to large qua"tities of explosives located in cars or trucks, Explosives detectors, further ,developed, could be of use in airport and aircraft security and at other sensitive locations. In addition to explosives detectors, other areas of potential study include, but are not limited to, the use of non-lethal disabling agents that might be effective in handling hijacking cases, improved and cheaper metal detectors, chemical detectors of various types, perimeter monitoring, and techniques of behavioral observation and modification. An investigation of the application of recent developments in all the above areas to countet~erroris would be timely in view of past and crobable future actions against U.S. targets. ISSUES TO BE ADDRESSED 1, What are the technical possibilities for developing explosives detection capabilities to the level that they could significantly improve the resistance of United States facilities, here and abroad, to attacks using explosives? What could be done with the current state of the art? 2, If there are or ~ay soon be effective technologies in the above area, which would be most useful against personnel? Against vehicles? 3, Whi:h developi~; techniques are most promising? Nearest in terms of effective application' 4. What other existing or ne~r-term technologies might be of use in developing counter-terrorist capabilities' 5. How effectively is the U.S. using current technology in preventing and in dealing with terrorist acts?

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RELEVANCE =~ 10/18/65 TECHNOLOGY FOR CEFEN3E COST CONTROL Draft:Shaw The cos~ ~procurement and other) of defense systems has been a ma1or issue of tong-standing concern. Over the vears, cost escalation has been driven in part bv technological inflation, an empirically recognized oheno~enon c~at ~ccounts for a steady 2%-3% vearly increase in the real cost ~f procured i;stems. 1ew s~stems generally cost more than the systems they replace, and product improvements usually add to the cost of existing systems. In recent vears, eno1neers ha~e devised wavs to reduce dramaticallt the costs Qf performing 1~oorcant ~~nct1ons. For example: 1. the cost per ,unction oerformed bv dioital electronics ha~ decreased bY orders of m;anit~de pver the past two decades; 2. a mechan1c~l 1nertiil olatform t~at cost over $100,000 in then-year dollirs 1n the early 19os c~n be replaced today by a ring laser gyro costng 525,000 1n today's doll~rs, and might be replaced by a fiber opti: gyro costing less than 15000 in a few years; 3; it 1s ~ecGm1ng possible to replace expensive mechanical radar component! with ,ary 1nexoensive integrated circuitry for some e1ppl i c.;ti ~n=; 4. ;1d,an.:-es ii ,.anufe1c':,.iri,,q technology (MANTECH) hold the promise for larg~ ra~~ctions in the cost of producing items and, perhaps aore sianificantly. ra~Jcing the time and cost of implementing design changes. in ~Jdit1on. man~ adva~ces--especially 1n but not liffiited to electronics-~have liid tc 1mac0~ements 1n me~n ti~e to fail of one, two, or more orders of ~ijgn1t~de. ;his ho:Js great potential for reducing O&M costs. Other advances are helping t0 ;treatline the repair process. These and similar advinces ~ave the ~Qterlt6i ;c~ ~aju:1~g the cost of defen;e procurement and system m,:,inl.e,,,wca. C-F (~1-.1,;.,-,, the; can also be applied to m~king future systems more camole~ rafher t~~r i~ss ~ostly. Cor,gra-..; hac;: t,""~n ,ery con,:erned about cc,ntri::,11 ing the defense bud9et. This concern is li~el, to increase as deficit reduction measures curtail v~~rl~ ,ncrea~@s 1n def~nse spending. Underst~nding the p0ssib1lities for eolo1t1ng tac~nolagv to control co~c 0ught to ~e y;~ful to Armed Services and ~rrrorr1~t1on~ Committees in helping OoD to spe~d it! tudget ~iselv. E~oloiting these technalaqies will reau1re botn ccrrect procurement decisions :1,~d dire:~erl R~.[i m~11age,11enL rSSUES TO BE CONSIDERED This study would identify those te:hnical ddvances that hold t~e greatest oromise for cost reduction. assess ii brJad terms the oatent1ai each holds, and eAplore the degree to ~hich ~urrently available cost reduction technologies are teiro applied tJ redu:ingl :r controll1nol casts rather than to achieving other ends 1e,g. i!i1p,o,ed pjrforman:::e;. Tr,e issues are: 1. Jlhat techn:,inies r,ave the potential for ,;;.1ooorti-,g sionificant co,;t reductions? W\1ch jt these sia~ th~ 0r2~test prQ~liE' ~~at are cne potential :1opli,:.,1tions? 2. r-h;;w ,1 1 1.1.:r ;r,10';, ::eiected -:ti:n,lico1tio'"S ~f L-ese technolc.Hes reduce tt,e casts o' maier s,i:e~s-~~:it be ~i12n up in e~pl01ting tnese advances 3. (0~1-,~aJcl1~~ lec~~olos1~s jaen auoli~d in the past? What has Deen t ;-, e r 1.J i t ~

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Harris & Crane Technology, Markets and Policies in the Pacific Rim ULEVANCE Th count~ies Qf the Pacific Basin have achieved a record of extraordina~~conomic growth, and have replaced Europe as the United States' largest trading 1egion. But since 1980 the US trade deficit with newly industrializing countries (NICs) in East Asia has quadrupled, and the US deficit with these countries plus Japan reached more than $58 billion by 1984. Much of this growth has been propelled by improved technology, some of which has been supplied by the US. The trade issues are already of deep concern to Congress. An OTA study can help clarify the role that technology and technology transfer play in trade, and the implications for the future. The Technology Transfer to China Project has explored SOM of the issues co1111on to the region, but there are also several 11&jor differences. Moet of th countries are more advanced technologically than China, enabling them to quickly and effectively absorb (and create) technology, and there is less doubt over their long-term friendliness to the US. Companie in moat of th countries have great incentive to export since they lack the enormous internal market that characterizes China, thus creating concerns over their long-tam competitiveness with US companies. ISSUES 1. What have been the factors leading US firms to transfer technology o~ build manufacturing facilities in these countries? What have been the effects on domestic facilities and employment? 2. What has been the experience of US firms trying to market technoloSY, equipment and services? Where have they encountered difficulty because of government policy discouraging imports? In what sectors have US firms been most successful in penetrating Pacfic markets, where have they had least success, and why? 3. What are the emerging trends in technology transfer and trade? Where is competition likely to be greatest? What are the likely consequences for the United States over the next 1,-20 years? What factors could change recant trends in trade deficits (ag growing affluence in the developing countries or improved productivity in the US)?' 4. Are the various governments following the same rules in areas such as opening markets to foreign participation, protecting intellectual property, and subsidizing Rand D, and are they applying them equally to other nations? What are the 11&jor impedimenta to trade, and who is winning and losing? 5. What are the national security risks to the US associated with dual use and military technology transfers in the region (eg technology leakage to the USSR or political instability in the Philippines)? In which ca should the US.promote coproduction and cooperative research in advanced technology sectors, and where is it appropriate to restrict transfers? 6. Is the United States capable of responding effectively to these challenges? What policy options are available? What might be the effects on the US and on the Pacific Basin countries of alternative policy paths such as extending areas of multialteral agreement, expanding protectionism, neomarcantilism, or bilateral bargains? While some work has been done on ~rade in the Pacific Rim, less on technology transfer and comparatively little on policies, the interrelationships have not been spelled out. This would be the comparative advantage of the study. It could perhaps help to dispell misimpressions about the extent of government control over technology transfer and the impacts on trade, while identifying some of the requirements for effective US participation over the long-term.

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HEALTH PROGRAM CHARTER The charter of the Health Program, the analysis of technological applications that affect human health, is reflected in three primary types of efforts: 1) assessments of clinical and general health care technologies and related policy areas; 2) assessments in the area of environmental and occupational health; and 3) collaboration with, and assistance to, other programs on health-related issues in projects. The first of these three types of efforts refers to the Program's responsibility to conduct assessments related to medical technology. Medical technology refers to drugs, devices, medical and surgical procedures, and the organizational and support systems used to administer such technologies. This responsibility is carried out through four areas of study. The first study issued by the Program dealt with the questions of why one should be concerned about assessing medical technologies and what methods could be used to do so. In the Program's first decade six major reports in the area of methodology and assessment systems have been issued. This area will continue to be a core area of responsibility. From early in the Program's history we have conducted small analyses of special technologies as case studies. Major assessments now routinely include several case studies for separate publication. In all, 41 case studies or assessme~ts on specific technologies have been issued or are in progress. This will continue to be an active area of responsibility, especially as

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2 Congress now increasingly addresses issues of specific technologies and reques~s reflect this growing interest. Although the area of computers and information as applied to health has generally not had intense Congressional interest, it is a consistent interest. Thus, the Program has almost always had at least one active project in the. computer or information area. The enduring nature of the interest and the activity will most likely continue due to the critical importance of information, and the growing importance of computers in health care. The relationship of health care technology to financing, organization, and systems issues is a growing area of Program activity due to increased and focused Congressional interest. The type of study included is illustrated by assessments of the medical devices industry, of blood policy and technology, of medical technology and costs of the Medicare program, and of physician payment systems. The Health Program has a substantial second responsibility for assessments relating to environmental and occupational health. Another way of characterizing this area is as an involvement with the effects on human health from unsafe exposures, whether they be in the workplace, the physical environment, soft drinks (saccharin), or wherever. Studies in this area include a review of the carcinogenicity of saccharin, assessments of cancer risks from the environment and methods for determining those risks, of health and safety controls in the workplace and of EPA's premanufacture notice program. We have been mandated to review protocols for and monitor the conduct of studies of Agent Orange and of health effects among military personnel and civilians exposed to atomic bomb tests. We have been requested by Congress to provide numerous reviews of protocols or results of studies of other

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3 re~earchers and agencies. Many of these efforts illustrate one of the key points of our responsibility in this area: scientific critiques of research protocols and methods. Because a great many areas of technological application have or might have effects on human health, it is unrealistic and inefficient to expect that all analyses of such effects would be done in the Health Program. However, because of staff expertise and experience we feel it is the third part of our responsibility to assist formally {i.e., more than just review drafts) on studies of, for example, increased use of coal, genetic testing in the workplace, impacts of applied genetics, habitability of Love Canal, Superfund, and technology and aging.

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10/21/85 POSSIBLE FUTURE PROJECT IDEAS -HEALTH PROGRAM for 1985 OTA Management Retreat HOME TESTING: THE PATIENT AS DOCTOR The September 27th 1985 i56Ue of American Medical World News carried a story entitled 11FDA eyes controls on home tests: test performance and interpretation of results at i56Ue" that encapsulates the major problems of home testing. 11 The Food and Drug Administration
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-2 -TESTS FOR PREDICTING HUMAN RESPONSES TO CHEMICAL AND PHYSICAL AGENTS Underpinning provisions in the environmental and occupational health laws in this country is an assumption that methods exists to predict and detect the effects of chemical and physical substances in air and water on human beings. This assessment would address the ability to predict such effects. Throughout the 1970-'s, cancer was the health effect that drove the pagsa.ge of laws and the regulatory proces. As a consequence, carcinogenicity testing came to dominate toxicology in terms of test development and in the testing of chemicals. Even so, the value of the tests that are routinely used to test for carcinogenicity have been continually questioned. This situation persists today. While emphasis still is placed on cancer as an endpoint, there is growing awareness that agents in the general environment and the workplace can cause other serious health problems as well. Chemicals that damage the nervous s'YStem have gained attention recently, as have agents that interfere in a variety of waY'S with human reproduction. Examples of other important endpoints include metabolic disorders, which may damage the liver, and a variety of chronic respiratory conditions. Little effort has been made to develop laboratory or animal tests that could predict these effects. This assessment would examine the available tests for several classes of health effects and evaluate how well they predict the human response. Ongoing research worldwide in test development will be studied and gaps identified. To the extent possible, the technical and conceptual constraints to developing adequate predictive tests in each area will be identified. TECHNOLOGIES FOR DISEASE PREVENTION AMONG ELDERLY PEOPLE Technologies to prevent disease among elderly people have assumed increasing importance as life expectancy has increased and elderly people have accounted for a higher percentage of the population in the United States and throughout the developed world. Preventing the occurrence of disease could improve the quality of life, including the functional ability, of elderly people as they live out their lives. In their quest for methods to moderate medical expenditures for elderly people, both Congress and the Department of Health and Human Services have considered expanding Medicare coverage to include cer-

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-3tain preventive technologies. But the goals of Federal cost containment and of improved health for elderly people might well conflict if total Medicare expenditures increase as people continue to incur medical expenses during longer life spans. Furthermore, some appl"'Oaches, such as exercise programs or dietary regimens, are being popularized and adopted without adequate ;;'SEPSEiment of their effectiveness, while others documented to be cost effective, such as hypertension screening and influenza vaccination, are underused by clinicians not attuned to prevention for older people. These are continuing problems that promise to become more prominent over time. An OTA aSaesment could join these isues of evaluation of effectiveness, improved quality of life, and cost containment to develop Federal strategies for Congres to consider. OT A has the advantage of being able to consider the isues from a social as well as a program perspective and a great deal of relevant expertise from previous studies of preventive technologies, strategies to a55as technologies, and Medicare policies. CARCINOGEN REGULATORY POLICY The pose.ibility that our air, drinking water, food,. drugs, con-sum er products, and workplaces may expose us to the risk of contracting cancer has generated considerable concern among U.S. citizens. Responding to that concern, Congres has appropriated money for research to identify carcinogenic substances and has empowered regulatory agencies to ban, limit, or control the use of such substances. Over the past few years, the reasearch and regulatory agencies have devoted considerable effort towards writing policy guidelines concerning how they will determine whether or not a substance causes cancer. The Federal Government, primarily through the National Toxicology Program , pays for the conduct of toxicologic testing in animals of suspected carcinogens. The staff of a subcommittee of House Committee on Government Operations has expresed interest in having OT A conduct a study of these Federal Carcinogen Policies. Specifically, such a study would involve a comparison of these policies on a number of technical and scientific points concerning the conduct of animal studies, the procedures used to evaluate the results of those studies, and the ultimate regulatory use of the data from those studies. In addition, the study would examine the results of NTP tests for carcinogenicity, how the regulatory agencies have used those results, and how useful that information has been.

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-4 -NON-MEDICAL HEALTH CARE Sinc:e the 19605, a host of ac:tivities suc:h as biofeedbac:k, aerobic:s and other organized forms of exercise, acupuncture, megavitamin ther apy, food allergies as causes of hyperac:tivity and depresion, and the whole notion of "(w)holistic health" have become part of America"s preoccupation with "healthy living." Some of these techniques, such as biofeedback and acupuncture, have been incorporated into medical prac:tice under limited circumstances, and some medical profesionals have oanded wgether wjth gther typn gf pracn'bcner5 tc prcvice holistic health care. This eSEasment would review such health-related practices for the following purposes: 1) Define the techniques and technologies to be covered and categorize the areas in which such activities are taking place (e.g., diet, nutritional therapy, exerdse, sel-f diagnosis), the extent of such practices, and what controls currently exist over them; 2) Provide information on the economics of the industry; and 3) Identify and evaluate techniques and technologies for which direct mediq1.l effects are claimed (e.g., biofeedback, acupuncture, megavitamin therapy, "allergic:" food reactions and hyperactivity/depresion). Candidates for more specific analyses
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-5 -facilities. All of these trends are affected by the system of paYing for health care services in general, and capital expenditures in particular. Congress is about to consider new methods for Medicare and Medicaid payment of hospitals for capital expenditures. These methods will have much to do with the amount and distribution of health care technology in the next twenty years. It will also affect rates of innovation in certain kinds of technology. Yet, there has been little study to date of the implications for medical technology of alternative methods of paYing for capital and other kinds of health care services. OTA could offer a unique perspective on the capital payment debate by focusing on the implications of alternative capital payment strategies on the distribution and development of medical technology. This effort would result in a technical memorandum on the subject.

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-6-POTENTIAL PROJECTS FOR OTliER PROGRAMS PSYCHONEUROIMMUNOLOGY (8ioApps and Health) To be added ... FUTURE PRISON TECHNOLOGIES (7 Program) We"re not sure this is an important or feasible project. But it might be that the increasing problems in the nation"s (or the Federal government-'s) prison system make this a candidate. Our sense is that the current system suffers from overcrowded and outdated plant and services, inadequately trained personnel, inadeq ... :.:~ surveillance and containment technologies, ill-defined and inconsistent (contradictory) goals, and inadequate ties to concurrent and subsequent rehabilitation and II re-entry" services. There are also questions of whether there is an organized II penal research" effort examining emerging or future alternate pose.i.bilities in facility development (different types of construction and surveillance) for achieving security, in the development or adaptation of pharmaceuticals and other "health" related techniques for behavior control, rehabilitation, or simply security. What are the implications of emerging technologies, and particularly related but much more sophisticated future technologies, for "tagging" convicted individuals, as is sometimes done with people convicted of drunk driving? For example, is there a role for the new crop, or for the next generation, of medical imaging devices in maintaining security? What are the cost implications of increasing the technological sophistication of prison facilities? Is there an ethical dilemma in incarcerating people without a clear statement of societys goals? If so, at what point of technological sophistication does that dilemma spill over into operational decisions about facilities, services, surveillance, and rehabilitation? If society can not afford to keep spending increasingly large sums on large concrete buildings to lock people away, are there ways that technology can help?

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STAFF MEMO TO: FROM: RE: October 21 1985 Jack Gibbons, Mary Procter Clyde Behney Writeup on psychoneuroim munology for Management Retreat This is the missing writeup from the Health Program submission on future project possibilities. It goes in the Other/Joint Program suggestions. I wasn"t clear enough in my instructions, so Denise Dougherty did a longer writeup than you asked for. But because it is, I believe, an interesting description, and because it also fits a bit into the general future technology directions discussion to be held, I thought I would send it without cutting it to one page.

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Psychoneuroimmunology: The effects of stress and personality on health and illness One of the most controversial areas in medicine is the effect of social and psychological factors on physical health. Commonly cited examples of the effects of these factors include the relationship that is often found between "Type A" behavior and heart disease; the sickness and even death that have often been found to follow the loss of a spouse; the association between a arepressed personal ityff and development of malignant disease; the use of imaging to cure cancer; Norman Cousins~ claim that he laughed his way out of his illness; that denial was an effective psychological strategy for dealing with a 1 ifethreatening disease; and the care of pets and plants to prolong the 1 ives of nursing home residents, presumably by enhancing the psychological state of control. Whether these effects indeed occur, their influence on the course of illness relative to biological factors, and how much to invest in exploring and using them, is hotly debated. However, at least one Federal agency has put this research 1 iterature to practical use: the Department of Defense recently conducted a course aimed at reducing Type A behavior in its commanding officers. The immediate results for behavior and family relations were good; further research should indicate effects on physical health.

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In part, the controversy continues because scientific research has not fully answered the questions of how these social and psychological factors do their work, nor how the immune system protects against disease. Recent advances have delineated the important role the immune system plays in mediating health and disease, and effects of social and psychological factors on immune functions in animals and humans, but a multitude of questions remain, and many do not accept as valid findings that stressful situations and mental states fundamentally affect physiological systems nor suggestions that such factors can result in illness and death. Some suggest that an emphasis on the psychological state and life situations of patients results in blaming the victims first for becoming sick and then for not recovering from their illness. In addition, it's been suggested that if patients believe that their illness can be cured through willpower or imaging, they may not use more appropriate therapies. It has also been suggested that society only tends to look to the role of psychological factors when it fears a disease and does not know the true, biological cause of an illness; this gives potential victims some sense of control, however illusory, over their health. However, if in~~ed social and psychological factors play a part in the development and treatment of illness, ignoring them would mean neglecting an important aspect of health promotion, disease prevention and treatment. And, even if changes in situations and attitudes cannot prolong life, they may change the quality of 1 ife. The proposed study would review and synthesize the several 1 iteratures that have been merged into the new field of study called

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psychoneuroimmunology, The aim would be to assess how important social and psychological factors are to the workings of the immune system and how they affect the development and outcome of disease. It would ask to what extent changes in 1 ife situations, such as learning to manage stress, improve the length of 1 ife as well as its quality, and to what extent treatment in this area is cost-effective. How can family members and health care providers reduce the psychological stress of illness without wresting psychological control from a patient? What is the optimal psychological attitude to adopt to prevent illness and, if necessary, to cope with it, and how can this stance be developed? The study would also examine the pattern of research funding for studies of psychosocial risk factors in health and disease, the federal and private system of payment for such treatment, and the state of training for researchers and therapists specializing in this field. ~ome have claimed, for example, that there has not been enough research into the psychosocial risk factors associated with developing the acquired immunodeficiency syndrom._(AIDS). It may be that research into and training and treatment for such factors is underfunded, or it may be that attention to such factors is neither useful nor cost-effective. The relative usefulness of studies using animal models versus those in humans would also be examined. We would expect interest in this area from the Senate Appropriations and Finance Committees because of their interest in Federal reimbursement for mental health treatments, and from the Subcommittee on Health and the Environment in the House Energy and Commerce Committee, and the Subcommittee on Intergovernmental Relations

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and Human Resources of the House Government Operations Committee, because of their interest in AIDS. Committees such as the House Committee on Education and Labor Subcommittee on Health and Safety and the Subcommittee on Employment and Housing of the House Government Operations Committee may be interested if it turns out, for example, that work-related stresses can be a factor in the development of illness and can be modified or eliminated. Or, it could be an internally initiated staff memorandum.

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FOOD AND RENEWABLE RESOURCES PROGRAM CHARTER The Program's scope includes all agriculture-related technologies used to provide society with food, fiber and chemicals, and technologies that enhance or jeopardize our ability to sustain in perpetuity the renewable resource bases that make such production possible. Agriculture itself is defined in the broad sense, including all crop and livestock production and forestry. Attention also is given to the impact that technology has had and is likely to have on how the agriculural system is organized, who controls it, and where it is heading. Further, the Program covers renewable resources that presently may not be considered or produced as crops, but that support such production and are fundamental to human needs. The Program is concerned with all technologies that enhance or inhibit the derivatiion of non-agricultural benefits from renewable resources. In recent years, understanding and concern for the provision of cultural and environmental services from renewable resources and renewable resource systems has grown immensely. Sustaining, restoring, and improving the renewable resource base is a fundamental concern today and will continue to be in the future and, thus, technology assessments conducted in this Program place high priority on conserving the productivity of the resource base and maintaining environmental quality. The idea of keeping renewable resources renewable is built into the substanc~ of all of the Program's studies. The disappearance of abundant cheap energy, continued world population growth, and changing patterns of

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2 demand alter the very nature of agriculture, vegetation and water management, and raise questions about the availability of food for expanding populations. This forces us continually to reexamine our food and fiber production systems and the associated use of renewable resources. We are aware, in addition, of the interrelatedness of natural and cultural components in food and renewable resource systems: a change for the better or worse in any part of a food and renewable resource system will. cause some consequential change elsewhere in that system. Consequently, all of the Program's studies are interrelated with respect to the knowledge and status of the underlying natural systems. Foresight is essential in any effort to limit harmful impacts or recognize potential benefits of any technology or technological change. This is the key to keeping renewable resources renewable. High priority, therefore, is given to technologies and technological attention to threats to our essential life-support systems--loss of topsoil, deforestation, extinction of plant and animal species, depletion of groundwater, etc. Unless such consequences are foreseen well before they become of crisis proportion, actions to mitigate impacts or to replace such technologies with others having reduced adverse effects can become extremely difficult if not impossible. At the same time, priority attention needs to be given to technologies to preserve and enhance ecosystem value and productivity. Providing the Congress with a "long view" requires taking a broad approach to developing an assessment's scope. Clearly, many fundamental problems in food and renewable resources no longer Leed political boundaries; any such assessments should reflect this understanding. For example, the need for food and other resources is critical elsewhere in the world. How the U.S. responds to the needs of others directly affects how we use our land and its

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3 associated renewable resources. Strain elsewhere on the renewable resource base can strain our renewable resource base at home and of course affects us as importantly in terms of trade, international relations and security. Determining which technologies offer us the widest and wisest options is critical to the U.S. and to others. Fulfilling the early warning function requires the uncovering of issues that are likely to become the concern of Congress over the next dec-ade or so. This may necessitate coverage of issues that do not fit neatly in current congressional committee jurisdictions. For example, the loss of biological diversity, an issue of growing national and international importance, is not specified under the jurisdiction of any particular committee. Nevertheless, many committees have obvious partial interest. The Program response is to have a wide congressional audience so that these topics can be covered easily. Similarly, topics inescapably arise that cross the principal areas of responsibility of OTA's Programs and Divisions. The policy of this Program is to share available food and renewable resource information with other programs and, where appropriate, to seek information from other Programs. For example, this Program holds an advisory positiion on the current study of the American Economic Transition. Each project's design will reflect the Program philosophy that sustained maintenance and improvement of the food and renewable resource base and environmental quality are of fundamental importance. The Program has staff with professional training in botany and agricultural ecology, forestry, geology, anthropology, wildlife science, agricultural marketing and economics, natural resouraces public policy, and international affairs--expertise compatible with the broad, integrated approach to food, renewable resources, and other environmental issues. Further, the Program has a strong staff

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4 component in the above specialities as they apply to problems of lesserdeveloped countries, an area of growing congressional concern.

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SENIOR MANAGEMENT RETREAT OCTOBER 31 AND NOVEMBER 1. 1985 SUBMITTED BY FOOD AND RENEWABLE RESOURCES PROGRAM OUTLINE I. TECHNOLOGY OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS: IMPLICATIONS FOR FOOD AND RENEWABLE RESOURCES II. CHANGES IN THE CONGRESS OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS III. ISSUES DIRECTLY RELATED TO OTA IV_. POSSIBLE NEW ASSESSMENTS FOR THE FOOD AND RENEWABLE RESOURCES PROGRAM FOR NEXT YEAR V. POTENTIAL NEW ASSESSMENTS FOR OTHER PROGRAM

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I. CHANGING TECHNOLOGY OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS: IMPLICATIONS FOR FOOD AND RENEWABLE RESOURCES Agricultural production technologies emerging over the next 15 to 20 years (examined in the on-going OTA assessment of Technology:, Public Policy, and the Changing Structure of American Agriculture) will be dominated by changes arising from ~iotechnology and information technologies. Estimates suggest that adoption of these emerging agricultural technologies will provide most of the 1.8 percent annual increase in production needed for projected domestic and international markets. The number of large corporate farms will grow, as will the number of small, part-time farms, and the number of moderate-sized farms ("family farms") will continue to decrease. To date, little attention has been given to technological packages which would improve the lot of small, part-time farmers. Increased attention will have to be given to improving production on small farms using methods that minimize costly inputs of petroleum-based fertilizers and pesticides. In a similar fashion, minimization of agricultural inputs is needed for poor farmers in developing countries. This concern is reflected in the new OTA assessment of Low-Resource Technologies for Developing Countries. It will be important, therefore, to look for opportunities for technology exchange between these two farming populations. -1 -

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The renewable natural resources that support agriculture provide a different set of problems. Over the coming 20 years it seems likely that emphasis will shift to management systems designed to sustain renewable resources rather than focusing on specific production-oriented technologies. Global concern that the renewable resource base is undergoing severe adverse impacts is increasing. The most severe problems are occurring in the world's developing countries, yet even in developed countries soil erosion, overuse of groundwater and similar problems are important concerns. Increased attention is being paid today to the possible links between degradation of the renewable resource base in developing countries and the political instability therein. This is a food/renewable resource issue that, if determined to be true, would be of importance to the Congress. OTA's International Security and Commerce Program, in defining "national security," includes "international stability" along with "deterrence and defense." Therefore, the relationship between degradation of the renewable resource base and political instability (and mechanisms to improve stability through development of technologies that sustain resource productivity) seems an appropriate study area for OTA--one that could have important implications for maintaining peace. OTA could play a unique role assisting Congress in examining opportunities to support "peace technologies"--a natural complement to those dealing with defense and deterrence. -2 -

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II. CHANGES IN THE CONGRESS OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS A comparison of Congressional Committee and Subcommittee name changes over the last 20 years shows a pronounced shift in emphasis to resource and environmental issues. Today, while the House and Senate Agriculture Committees still have primary responsibility over agriculture policies, agriculture issues and associated resource concerns now are surfacing in many other committees. Resources Environment Hunger Agriculture Forestry Conservation 1965 1985 9* 8 1 5 6 2 3 3 3 Includes: natural resources; renewable resources; water resources; and resource protection Jurisdictional changes in the Congress are occurring, and it seems likely that blurring of jurisdictions will increase. A shift in titles describing the committees and subcommittees probably will continue and words implying "ecosystem maintenance" could accompany, if not replace, words like "agriculture" or "forestry". -3 -

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Similarly, in time, such words as "science" and "technology" will be discarded from committee titles as being too generic. Science and technology issues cut across most committee jurisdictions. In the future, OTA will receive a growing number of requests of global or international scope. In F&RR issues, this is partly triggered by the number of Members and staff with personal experience in developing country issues related to population growth and resource degradation. Today, some 120 Congressional staff are ex-Peace Corps Volunteers. Six Members of the Congress have been Peace Corps Volunteers (5 current Members) and other Members have served on the Peace Corps staff (see table below). Members of the Congress who were Peace Corps Volunteers PAST MEMBER: Sen. Tsongas PRESENT MEMBERS: Sen. Dodd (CT) Rep. Petri (WI) Rep. Courter (NJ) Rep. Hall (OH) Rep. Henry (MI) Members of the Congress who worked on the Peace Corps Staff Sen. Cranston (CA) Rep. Moody (WI) (and about four others) -4 -

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It seems likely that OTA requests from the Congress and TAB will be less technology-specific or resource-specific, but of a broader and crossJYl'i~dictiPal atYI~, TD avDiD political and Jurisdictional conflicts during this transition period, the TAB may wish to have an increasing amount of Director-initiated assessments. The TAB, by approving Director-initiated studies, could pass the risk-taking on to OTA. -5 -

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III. ISSUES DIRECTLY RELATED TO OTA Current OTA program titles include a number of non-descriptive words, such as "science," and incorporate descriptors common to the OTA mandate for all programs. A revision and clarification of program and division titles may help non-OTA people understand more clearly the content of each program and, thus, the overall make-up of OTA. Suggested Revision of Division and Program Titles Division A Renewable Resources, Bioengineering and Health Health Bioengineering and Society Food and Renewable Resources (1) Service technologies (2) Transformation technologies (3) Resource technologies Division B Oceans, Space and Communications Transportation, Communications and Information Space Development Oceans and Atmosphere 6 Division C Industry and International Security International Security Industrial Development Energy and Materials non-Divisional Floating Program

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The "non-Divisional floating program" could be structured in the ET mode. TAB would be told that "this is an experimental approach for OTA to address complex, cross-divisional studies." For example, last year F&RR suggested that OTA consider a new inter-Program study on Integrated Resource Systems for "Mega-cities." The short description was: The United Nations projects that the number of cities with at least 5,000,000 people will grow from 6 to 60 by the year 2000--a time when two-thirds of the world's urban population is expected in developing countries. The potential capacity of urban systems to produce food, energy and to manage infrastructure effectively may determine the survival of millions of urban dwellers. This crossprogram assessment would help identify key issues and technologies that show promise for addressing this global need. In just 15 years, the world population will grow from about 4.8 billion to 6.2 billion. The United States will reach about 270 million whereas the developing world, where the growth of large cities is rapid, will reach some 5.1 billion. It seems unlikely that changes _of this nature will not cause major strains in U.S. activities related, for example, to food exports, national defense, energy and other non-renewable resources. Other "ET" style topics could be considered for similar treatment using the "floating program" method. 7 -

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* * Questions: What are some effective mechanisms OTA could use to brief new congressional staff members on the use of OTA and on the use of past OTA assessments? Because the assessments are planned to have a long shelf-life, staffers need to be made aware of what is in them. Turnover in temporary OTA staff is encouraged. Yet, at the same time, increasing emphasis is being placed on special responses, follow-on responses, etc. that derive from completed assessments. How do we maintain appropriate institutional memory to handle this congressional need? 8 -

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IV. POSSIBLE NEW ASSESSMENTS FOR THE FOOD AND RENEWABLE RESOURCES PROGRAM FOR NEXT YEAR Agricultural Technology Transfer in the United States Relevance: U.S. agriculture is changing at a very rapid pace. The technology transfer system (extension service), however, has not moved to accommodate the change. As agricultural technologies become more complex, small and moderate size farms need more assistance in understanding the new technologies. The Federal technology transfer system, however, seems to be moving in the opposite direction. The present system has not identified its clientele, has reduced the importance of technology specialists, does not have an effective interface between Federal and State systems, and lacks specific goals and objectives. An OTA assessment could help Congress in its oversight capacity to view the role of agricultural technology transfer in the long-run. It would also be useful in identifying areas where Federal funds should be reallocated. An OTA assessment also could help the Congress to better define the roles of Federal and State extension services. To date, USDA has conducted such studies but, for the most part, these studies are viewed as being selfserving. This study is a logical extension of previous OTA work. The findings of the studies--A Special Report for the 1985 Farm Bill, the U.S. Food and Agricultural Research System. and Emerging Technologies, Public Policy, and the Changing Structure of American Agriculture--clearly have given rise to issues of technology transfer. Such a study--if completed during the next 2 to 4 years--could respond to the issues surrounding emerging technologies in biotechnology and information systems as they become more prominent in agriculture. Issues to be Addressed: The changing structure of U.S. agriculture--to a dual agriculture of very large and very small farms--has important implications for effective technology transfer through an extension system. In the past, the system concentrated mainly on moderate-sized commercial farming operations. However, as farms grew larger and more sophisticated, they developed their own sources for technology information. These farmers, for the most part, deal directly with researchers. On the other hand, the smaller and more resource-limited farmers may need a great deal of assistance. The technology transfer system has not shown much interest in providing assistance to this group. The Federal extension system has reacted to its changing environment by adding new responsibilities but not eliminating others. Consequently, with a constant real-dollar budget, the system now is spread too thin. Criteria need to be established to determine the role of the system for the rest of this century. A lack of role definition could lead to technologies developed but not applied because of a lack of appropriate transfer mechanism. 9 -

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Assessment of Renewable Resource Evaluation Technologies Relevance: Existing legislation requires Federal agencies to implement single-and multiple-use management strategies for resource areas under their stewardship or through cooperation with private landowners. These mandates recognize the need to balance renewable resource conservation and use with the socioeconomic characteristics and needs of the resource area. Some examples of legislation which embody these mandates include: o Multiple Use/Sustained Yield Act o National Forest Management Act o Federal Land Policy and Management Act o Great Lakes Conservation Act o Soil and Water'Resources Conservation Act o Marine Sanctuaries Program Federal agencies, in response to these mandates, are developing and implementing management plans: e.g., Bureau of Land Management's Resour~e Area Plans; U.S. Forest Service's National Forest Plans. Their related programs will be reviewed by the Congress over the next four years. Plans are developed using a combination of resource evaluation technologies: data collection technologies (e.g., SCS Range Site Inventory); land capability analysis systems (e.g., SCS Land Capability Classification System); and simulation analysis techniques (e.g., FWS and AC0E Habitat Evaluation Procedures). Data collection technologies provide information on extant resources within an area. Land capability analysis systems identify existing and alternative resource uses. Simulation analysis is used to forecast the impacts management alternatives wil\ have on resource production and resource users~ Over the long term (10-50 years), decisions using present technologies will dictate the quantity and quality of available resources, thereby determining the economic well being of many resources users. Public scrutiny of the management process already has uncovered questions on the adequacy of existing technologies. Concern already exists over the effectiveness of the technologies used by Federal agencies to establish consistent baseline information and accurately predict resource and socioeconomic impacts of single-and multiple-use resource management. Standardization of resource classification, data collection, and data storage is limited; costly duplication may exist among Federal agencies. Inconsistency in the use of these tools could lead to misallocation of resources which could have long term consequences for resource users. Issues to be Addressed: An assessment of renewable resource evaluation technologies would address: (1) tools used by Federal, State and local resource management agencies; (2) the ability of these tools to represent the existing environment; (3) the strengths and weaknesses of technologies in predicting future impacts of resource allocation; and (4) the extent to which social and economic features are incorporated into simulation analysis technologies. The assessment could assist the Congress in oversight of public resource management agencies and in decisions over resource allocation and management by evaluating how well current technologies have responded to existing mandates for single-and multiple-use management, as well as the predictive abilities of existing and emerging technologies. 10 -

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V. POTENTIAL NEW ASSESSMENTS FOR OTHER PROGRAMS Salvage Technologies; Their Assessment and Significance It has become increasingly important to recover materials from hazardous environments. Problems include recovering material from deep ocean areas, size of the item being sought (as when seeking a flight recorder); or risks involved in recovery of the item (as when recovering toxic or radioactive containers). Appropriate technologies exist for only certain situations as recent news reports suggest, for example, of our inability to salvage the Titanic. An assessment of our present technological capabilities would provide important information to guide in development of technologies for recovery of valuable, strategic, or potentially hazardous items. Expanding application of industrial technologies using toxic or radioactive materials, and the associated risk of industrial accident, also raises questions of whether present technologies allow for proper clean-up and disposal after such incidents (e.g., Three Mile Island). Consideration at the level of local jurisdictions (as for trucking accidents), as well as regional (e.g., large industrial accidents) are necessary. (Oceans; Energy & Materials). Impacts of Food Storage/Preservation Technologies on Food Quality and Human Health Interest exists in certain potentially harmful effects some food storage/preservation treatments might have on human health. Several conventional chemical treatments have been restricted or prohibited by the Congress due to their suspected carcinogenic effects (e.g., EDB and carbon tetrachloride). Only two common chemical preservation treatments remain approved by the EPA, and methyl bromide currently is under review. In addition, some storage chemicals (as yet not regulated) may have strong neurological and other toxic effects. 'This assessment would examine present and emerging techniques for preservation of food with respect to known and potential impacts of various treatments on food industry workers and consumers. Alternate methods of food preservation treatments (e.g., freezedrying, atmosphere modification, ultra-violet treatment) could also be examined in comparison to conventional chemical treatments. (Health). -11 -

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BIOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS PROGRAM CHARTER The Biological Applications Program (BAP) was begun in 1978 to undertake studies in two areas, genetics and population. These studies culminated in reports titled Impacts of Applied Genetics: Micro-organisms, Plants, and Animals, and World Population and Fertility Planning Technologies: The Next Twenty Years. Subsequent work has continued the Program's interests in genetics and reproductive science and extended its interests into such areas as neuroscience and human aging. The Program's basic identity is as assessor of the state-of-the-art of technologies arising from the cutting edge of biological science. Its broader responsibility is to help Congress understand complex technologies in biomedical science. Early warning is very much part of the Program's charter, and some studies explore potential future applications of new biological technologies. Examples are genetic testing for the prevention of occupational disease, and human gene therapy. Because many of these new technologies have potential impacts that are of great social and political significance, ethical analysis is often a component of the assessments conducted by the Biological Applications Program. The Program has taken a comprehensive look at biotechnology as a process, a discipline and an industry, and evaluated it from many perspectives. Patient problems, social applications, treatment of human subjects, regulation, commercial applications, risk evaluation, and international competitiveness are a few areas of Program and Congressional interest. These diverse areas illustrate the broad approach, exploration of wide ranging impacts, and forward looking perspective of the Program. In the process of fulfilling the general responsibilities associated with the program's basic identify, it is not surprising that several strong applied components have emerged.

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From the general sense of technology broadly perceived in biomedicine, and from earlier work in neuroscience and aging, has arisen a project focussing on the dementias (such as Alzheimer disease) and another on technologies to sustain life in the elderly. To date, three assessments have explored important scientific and social issues surrounding the subject of aging and the elderly. This attention reflects the special interest the Congress has and will likely continue to have for the foreseeable future in our rapidly growing elderly population. The Biological Application Program's concern with basic biology leads to potential overlap with other OTA programs. Assessments of the applications of biotechnology to plants, animals and microbes could overlap with assessments being carried out by Programs whose primary concern is agriculture or the environment. Assessments involving human health could overlap with the work of the Health Program. Good communication and coordination with other Programs has enabled the Biological Applications Program to draw upon knowledge in other Programs, contribute its own to others, and avoid redundancy.

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-l -BIOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS PROGRAM NEW ASSESSMENT PROPOSALS BIOLOGY OF SPACEFLIGHT October 9, 1985 To date, about 100 Americans have traveled into space. The flights of longest duration were three manned Skylab missions of 28, 59, and 84 days. Through the next 25 years, both the number of people in space and the duration of their stays are likely to increase dramatically, with frequent Shuttle missions in the late 1980s, the establishment of a permanent space station in the 1990s, and a possible manned landing on Mars by 2010. The commercial potential of space manufacturing is one driving force behind an increasing human presence in space. For example, the first pharm_aceutical purified in space is scheduled for release in the near future. A market for space bioprocessing is developing with a value projected into the billions. Physiological adjustments to the space environment involve most tissues and organs in the body. Psychological and behavioral adjustments, although less well-defined, take place as well. Concern for the health, effectiveness, and safety of civilian and military space crews during and following extended or repeated spaceflights requires that deficiencies in knowledge of the physiology of spaceflight be identified. Spaceflights, space laboratories, and space colonies all involve humans living and working in closed biological environments. The technology of delivering food, air, and water for a limited period of time is well-defined. However, longer stays in space will require a self-renewing biological system potentially including plants, animals, artificial lighting, and waste recycling. Interest in this study is anticipated from Committees and Subcommittees responsible for (i) oversight of NASA, and (ii} military space efforts. An OTA review of the state of the technology of human health and welfare in space would thus serve several congressional interests. A 1984 OTA assessment of Civilian Space Stations and the U.S. Future in Space, while addressing the technology and infrastructure of an American presence in space, did not address the biology of spaceflight. An OTA study would review what is known about the pathogenesis of spaceflight,

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2 for example, the effect of weightlessness on bone mineralization, endocrine function, and digestive processes and requirements. Research with ground-based and space-flown human and animal subjects would be reviewed as human and animal models of space physiology are evaluated. The development of integrated research approaches, such as long-term followup of space travelers for biochemical problems (e.g., kidney stones) would be appraised. The effective use of countermeasures, such as drug therapy or exercises, would be evaluated. The present and future state of technology of closed biological systems would be analyzed. NASA's Life Sciences research program would be examined in detail. ALCOHOL AND SUBSTANCE ABUSE The problems of alcohol and substance abuse are serious and pervasive in American society. Alcoholism is estimated to cost $120 billion annually. Approximately half a million Americans are addicted to opiates. Thirteen million have used amphetamines illicitly, and over 10 percent of high school seniors use marijuana daily. Projections suggest that the prevalence of using illicit drugs other than alcohol has increased twentyfold in the last two decades. Drug use is attended by serious problems in families, communities, schools, and governments. The Federal Government has several roles: enforcement of federal drug laws, protection of U. S. borders, and research on drug and / substance abuse. Most of the attention devoted to problems of drug and substance abuse concentrates on social consequences. The proposed assessment would focus instead on the biological foundation that underlies the social problem. It would begin with a review of the biological understanding of alcohol and substance abuse. Trends in research at the National Institute on Drug Abuse, the National Institute of Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, and the National Institute of Mental Health would be described, and their programs would be compared to other biomedical research programs such as those from the various National Institutes of Health. Emerging problems, such as those attending the synthetic production of street drugs (designer drugs) would be addressed. Evaluation of technologies to detect alcohol and substance abuse would be an important part of this assessment. Roadside detection of the drinking driver has been justified on the basis that drunk driving fatalities number in the tens of thousands each year; still, the practice is controversial. Blood, breath, and urine tests are used, with increasing frequency, to identify drug abuse by federal workers, including military and

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-3 -intelligence personnel, air traffic controllers and railroad workers. The assessment would address the uses and limitations of the various tests for intoxication and substance abuse, and describe and evaluate new detection technologies such as monoclonal antibodies and high presssure liquid chromatography. The findings of the assessment would be related to current regulatory policies and federal research programs. Legislative issues and options would be detailed. Because of the great interest in detection of substance abuse and to better enable Congress to consider the dozens of bills before it relating to drunk driving and substance abuse by federal workers, detection technology might be best treated in one or more background papers that could be published before completion of the full assessment. BIOLOGICAL RHYTHMS AND WORKER PERFORMANCE About 20 million workers in the United States --27 percent of working men and 16 percent of working women --are employed in jobs involving rotating job schedules. Rotating schedules are common in health care, transportation, utilities, manufacturing, public safety (police and firefighters), and security services. The typical work rotation follows a 28-day cycle, with 7 days of work interspersed with 1 to 4 days off. Workers rriove from working 7 consecutive days, to nights, to evenings. This schedule can disrupt physiological timing mechanisms and cause lowered mental alertness, increased error rates, slower reaction times, and adverse health effects. The result is impaired work performance and lower worker productivity. Congressional interest is anticipated because of the Federal role in ensuring the general safety and health of workers themselves as well as the public's safety. Congress has a particular interest in ensuring safe and efficient operations by air traffic controllers, airline pilots, nuclear power plant personnel, and others. In 1983, the Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight, House Committee on Science and Technology, held hearings on Biological Clocks and Shift-Work Scheduling that resulted in strong recommendations to encourage research and attention to better work scheduling. A 1985 OT A assessment, Preventing Illness and Injury in the Workplace, addressed the technologies for controlling work-related illness and injury, but did not address the biological bases or the health and safety implications of shift work. The assessment would evaluate the implications of rotating work schedules on the

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-4 -health of workers and the performance of workers in certain key occupations overseen by the Federal Government. The practices of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the Federal Aviation Administration, and the Department of Defense would be examined in light of current knowledge of the effects of biological rhythms on worker performance. The study would analyze clinical and basic research on biological rhythms, including technologies for maintaining proper function of internal human biological clocks. These technologies include dietary regimens, pharmacologic agents, and environmental lighting. Support of research in these areas by the National Institute of Occupational Safety ana Health, the National Institutes of Health, other public entities, ana private industry would be reviewed. Growing medical evidence suggests that chronic disruption of the human biological clock system may result in significant morbidity, including insomnia, gastrointestinal distress, and diminished energy and alertness. The large number of workers now exposed to this potential risk factor may constitute a public health problem and a threat to public safety; the dimensions of these problems would be examined in detail in this OTA study. PAIN AND PAIN RELIEF Pain is the single most common reason for seeing a doctor. It is the No. 1 reason people take medication. A person disabled by pain costs society about $21,000 annually, which means that if 2 percent of the American population were so afflicted, the cost would exceed $100 billion. Among the millions of people facing chronic pain are 800,000 Americans suffering the pain associated with cancer. Research into the mechanisms and perception of pain is an orphan field that neither anesthesiology, neurology, nor psychiatry call its own. Similarly, pain relief is part art, part science. As a result, research on pain and pain relief has been chronically underfunded. The National Cancer Institute, for example, spends little more than 0.2 percent of its $1 billion budget on pain research, even though the dread of terminalcancer pain is a national phobia. Congressional interest in one aspect of pain and its relief --that faced by terminal cancer patients --is manifested by introduction of the Compassionate Pain Relief Act (H.R. 1597, Rep. H. Waxman; S. 70, Sen. D. Inouye). Each bill provides a mechanism for the reintroduction of heroin into American medicine for the relief of terminal cancer pain.

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-5 -This assessment would survey the technologies available to diagnose and ameliorate pain across the spectrum of human suffering. It would provide a basis for congressional judgments about the scientific, legal, and ethical consequences of legislation related to pain and pain relief. The assessment would describe in comprehensive fashion the state of the technology, including: sources of pain, both real and perceived; chemical agents available for the relief of pain, and their efficacy; pain therapy via nonchemical agents, and its efficacy; and the short-and long-term consequences of unrelieved pain. The dollar costs of acute and chronic pain would be assessed from both the public health perspective and the occupational perspective. The ethical questions of who shall have access to and who shall pay for pain-relieving therapies would be examined. PSYCHOLOGICAL TESTING New York recently passed a bill requiring psychological testing of correction officials, and the use of such testing on law enforcement officials and others who deal with the public is increasing as courts find employers negligent in failing to test. Such testing can be used to assess attributes such as mental illness, personality traits, talents, and weaknesses. The test instrument is replacing background checks and references as past employers fearing slander and libel suits become increasing reluctant to give critical opinions and prospective employers become increasingly reluctant to rely on opinions that may be based on discrimination. There are many technical problems with psychological testing. Test instruments and their application are not sufficiently developed to allow detection of specific traits with reliability. Therefore, validation is important. However, there are significant logistical problems, particularly in finding a suitable group to test. Employees fear loss of their jobs and employers fear liability for negligence if they retain suspect employees. Furthermore, current employees are not well-suited to determining if the test would identify those who would not be suitable employees. Psychological testing raises important Constitutional issues, such as privacy, due process, and freedom of speech.

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-6 -Psychological testing is related to OTA assessments concerned with occupational health, productivity, and workplace issues, as well as to a past OTA background paper on polygraph tests, a special kind of psychological testing. The assessment would cover the state-of-the-art in psychological testing, in particular, the design of the test instrument, its reliability and validation, and its possible applications. The relationship of psychological testing to Federal laws and the Constitution would also be described. TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE TREATMENT OF BURNS It is estimated that 2 million Americans are burned each year; 200,000 seriously enough to require medical attention. About 70,000 are hospitalized, and 9,000 die. Disability days attributable to burns number an estimated 8,900,000 and medical costs are conservatively estimated at $1 billion. Survivability from a major burn varies greatly with the institution. Thus, there is a 7096 chance of surviving a burn covering 5096 of the body if treatment occurs in a proper burn facility. Survival drops to 3096 without such care. Burn injury is the third most common cause of accidental death in the U.S. Bed costs in burn centers are $800 to $2000 per patient day. These costs are likely to increase as the DRG system prompts hospitals to admit burn patients that they did not admit previously, thus siphoning off the less extensively burned patients who once partially offset the costs of those more heavily burned. Because burns are so expensive to treat, major savings accompany small improvements. Thus, if the hospital stays of the 61,000 surviving burn victims can be reduced just one day per year, the savings are conservatively estimated at $60 million (estimated mean cost per day of $1,000). The technology of burns is the technology of skin, a living space suit that is one of the largest organs in the body, accounting for about 1696 of body weight. Skin regulates temperature and fluid balance and protects inner tissues from mechanical injury and infection. Third degree burns, which are the focus of this assessment, are those which extend so deeply into the lower layers of the skin that it cannot regenerate, necessitating transplantation of skin to the burn site. Traditional skin grafting is limited by available donor area; if more than 50 or 6096 of the body receives third degree burns, lack of enough donor area often results in death. This assessment will review new technologies for treating third degree burns; an example of such a new technology is sheets of epithelium cultured from small patches of

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-7 -the burn victim's own skin. The adequacy of training of those who treat burns, number of beds in burn units relative to need, economic costs to the nation, and the impact of the DRG system on costs of burn treatment will be evaluated. The assessment will also review the psychological and social sequelae that accompany major burns, the rehabilitative techniques used, and such ethical aspects as inf or med consent and treatment decisions relative to the anticipated quality of life of the burn victim. PROJECTS NOT IN THE PROGRAM'S CHARTER OR PROJECTS THAT MIGHT BE BEST DONE JOINTLY WITH ANOTHER PROGRAM ARTIFICIAL ORGAN TRANSPLANTS (Health) Artificial organ transplants raise many important issues about the application of technology to human health and well-being. For example, in the specific case of the artificial ~eart implant, there are mounting concerns about its continued use; the problem of stroke or cerebrovascular accident in artificial heart recipients has been documented but not adequately explained. An OTA assessment in this area would describe the state of the art in the research and development of specific artificial organs, the major problems associated with implants, the allocation of health care dollars for transplant procedures, and legal and e~hical issues. Although most transplant procedures are financed in part by private insurance companies rather than Medicare or Medicaid, any trend toward the use of organ transplants will result in increased health care costs weighted toward tertiary rather than primary prevention. Rising health care costs are an important Congressional concern and, in addition, the choice of artificial versus animal or human transplants is an important public policy issue.

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-8 -IMPLICATIONS OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES IN MARINE BIOLOGY (BAP, Oceans, and F&RR) The advent of new biological technologies increases the likelihood that mariculture (the cultivation of marine organisms) will be used for food production and other purposes. Issues likely to arise with increased human ability to exploit marine resources include: (1) concern over unilateral exploitation of commonly shared ocean resources by industries or other countries; (2) dispute over deliberate release of genetically manipulated organisms into the ocean; and (3) marine use treaties. Policy makers may find it necessary to develop a new long term approach to marine use that takes account of the needs of the many different users of marine species. This assessment would provide a foundation for the development of such an approach.


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