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Preparing for Science and Engineering Careers: Field Level Profiles January 1987 NTIS order #PB87-177473
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PREPARING FOR SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING CAREERS: FIELD-LEVEL PROFILES PROJECT STAFF John Andelin, Assistant Director, OTA Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division Nancy Carson Naismith Science, Education, and Tmnsportation Program Manager Lisa Heinz, Project Director, Staff Paper Daryl Chubin, Senior Analyst Christine Courtney, Research Assistant and Graphics Specialist Marsha Fenn, Administrative Assistant Christopher Clary, Administrative Secretary Michelle Haahr, Secretary CONTRACTORS John Reuss Consultant Betty Vetter Commission on Professionals in Science and Technology
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WORKSHOP ON SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING MANPOWER DATA July 10, 1986 Alan Fechter $ Workshop Chairman National Research Council Stig Annestrand Committee on Science and Technology U.S. House of Representatives Robert Armstrong E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co. Eleanor Babco Commission on Professionals in Science and Technology Myles Boylan National Science Foundation Michael Crowley National Science Foundation Roman Czujko American Institute of Physics Daniel Hecker Bureau of Labor Statistics W. Edward Lear University of Florida, Gainesville Robert Neuman American Chemical Society Vin ONeill The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. Peter Syverson Council of Graduate Schools John Wiersma Wiersma & Associates REVIEWERS FOR STAFF PAPER Alan Fechter National Research Council Peter Syverson Council of Graduate Schools Betty Vetter Commission on Professionals in Science and Technology
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TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION **** **** **** **** ***e bO***** *e** ***. ***0 e. *********~******** i A Note on Data *.** **. ... ***. *.** ***. .*. e**m. .*. ... .*e*. *****w******* xv Physical Sciences . . . . . . . . . . . .. .....1 Physics and Astronomy l ******* l 99****** .*****.** l **.**.** l ******** 3 Chemistry l **.**** l ****.9** l bee*.*** l ..****.* l **.***** l *.****** l 8 Earth and Environmental Sciences 9*9**** l ***.*** l **.*.** l *****.* 13 Mathematical and Computer Sciences . . . . . ... ... .....19 Mathematical Sciences l **9*** l ******* l **O**** l ****=** l ******* **. 24 Computer Sciences l .***.* l ****e** l **.***. l .****** l ...*.*. l .**.* 29 Life Sciences . . . . . . . . . . . . .......34 Biological Sciences ....*.* ....**** l .*..**. ..*,**** l ****=** l **O** 37 Health/Medical Sciences . . . . . . . . .......41 Agricultural Science . **.. l **.**== l ****.** .******* l 44 Social and Behavioral Sciences ..***.* l ******* l ***.*** l **9**** 8******. 47 Psychology 50 . l .*..*.* . . .. *...** l ...*.** l .0...00 l ..*.. Economics . l 0.....0 l *.****. .0...00. .*...*** l *.****. l .. l .5 5 Engineering .****** l **...** l ..***.* .****..* .**..*** l ******* l ******* l 60 Chemical Engineering ....**. l *-*..** l .*.**** l *****.* l ******* l *** 73 Electrical Engineering l *.*.** .******. l ******* l ******* l ******* .*** 77
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PREPARING FOR SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING CAREERS FIELD-LEVEL PROFILES This Staff Paper is Engineering Work Force, The paper was produced Technology of the House INTRODUCTION an addendum to AND HIGHLIGHTS Demographic Trends and the Scientific and an in of OTA Technical Memorandum published in December 1985. response to a request by the Committee on Science and Representatives, to examine differences in the supply and and astronomy, chemistry, earth and environmental computer sciences; the life sciences (biological, demand of personnel across individual fields of science and engineering, and the sensitivity of these fields to demographic trends. The document consists of a dozen profiles presented in five broad field categories: the physical sciences (physics sciences); mathematical and health/medical, agricultural); social and behavioral sciences (psychology, economics); and engineering (chemical, electrical). All profiles include trend data on enrollments, degrees conferred, and employment by sector and primary work activity. Detailed information is also given on preparation for careers in science and engineering of three groups of people: women, minorities, and foreign nationals. The time period covered by most of the descriptive statistics is 1960-86. The paper degreed science aggregated data series of graphs and charts accompanies each profile. [n addition, a note on data precedes the profiles; this note provides an overview of data sources and explains important idiosyncrasies of their reporting. illustrates differences in the education and entry-level employment of and engineering talent, especially characteristics that are obscured by analysis. A brief narrative introduces each broad field section and a
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Each field profile has been written as a self-contained section. As the individual field or discipline is a smaller, more uniform population than the science and engineering work force as a whole, each field tends to have a characteristic pattern of education and employment. Analysis at the level of the field can improve understanding of how different market forces, demographic factors, and public policies interact to affect the supply of and demand for scientists and engineers. The following are highlights of a disaggregate analysis. Such analysis augments generalizations about the science and engineering work force as a whole. 1. The smaller and more predictable are changes in the technological advances, shifts development (R&D) spending, engineers can mask significant in specialized the scientific field being studied, the less factors that affect demand, such as scientific and Federal funding priorities, and industrial research and Small changes in the total supply of scientists and adjustment within and among fields. The total number of Ph.D.s awarded in science and engineering rose by 7 percent between 1980 and 1985. During this period, physics Ph.D. awards rose 10 percent and mathematics Ph.D.s declined almost as much. Both were overshadowed, however, by an increase in computer science Ph.D.s of 35 percent. The relationship between fields, especially mathematics and computer science, is critical for interpreting these degree trends. 2. Demographic trends play very little, if any, role in the supply of scientists or engineers in individual fields or in one field relative to another. Some demand factors affect all science and engineering, such as the general health of the U.S. industrial economy and the level of Federal R&D funding. Although the national economy may be healthy and the overall demand for scientists and engineers strong, a downturn in the oil industry will quench the demand for petroleum engineers. Similarly, a shift in emphasis within Federal R&D funding, even though overall R&D funding remains stable, can significantly change the demand in particular fields while not changing the total demand for scientists. ii
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3. Graduate enrollments and degree awards are Federal education and research support. In academic life sciences, and astronomy, Federal Government oriented fields, students respond quickly to changes highly responsive to small shifts in sciences such as mathematics, the support dominates. In industryin the job market. For example, unprecedented growth in the U.S. computer and semiconductor industries in the late 1970s generated a large demand for electrical engineers and computer specialists, which was answered quickly with an equally unprecedented boom in undergraduate electrical engineering enrollments. 4. Breadth of employment brings stability to a field. Chemical and mechanical engineers work in many different industries and can move among them. Petroleum engineers, on the other hand, depend almost exclusively on the petroleum industry for jobs. Diversity of employment may also tend to encourage broader education and a more versatile and mobile work force. Prospects for employment, the key factor in maintaining the supply of talent in afield. 5. Labor markets adjust to supply-demand gaps. The not demographics, may be Federal role in alleviating potential shortages of technical personnel appears limited to assistance for education and retraining. Shortages and surpluses are most likely to arise at the level of the specialty or skill rather than the field, and are more likely at the level of the field than for science and engineering as a whole. While petroleum geologists are currently over-supplied, hydrologists are in demand to address rising concern over groundwater supplies and quality. 6. The labor market adjusts to supply-demand gaps in two ways: individuals already in the work force change jobs and, after a lag, the number of degrees awarded in that field changes. Students are likely to shift specialties within afield before they shift fields, and more likely to shift fields than opt out of science or engineering altogether. Students may prolong their education until a poor job market improves, or hasten entry meet changing skill requirements and job opportunities; few scientists (especially
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mathematicians and physicists) emigrate to other fields. This mobility stems both from a recognition of individual versatility (in pursuing research problems and funding) and the continuing oversupply of Ph.D.s relative to opportunities for research positions in ones original field. 7. Recent engineering graduates seem well scientists are flexible to a lesser degree because professional training. Engineering students can be able to shift to of their longer more responsive meet new challenges; and more specialized than science students to current market conditions because of the relatively short time lag between selecting an engineering specialty, sometimes as late as the junior year of college, and obtaining the professional credential of a bachelors degree. The total number of B.S.* degrees awarded in engineering doubled between 1975 and 1985. Computer and electrical engineering exceeded this rate and added over 15,000 to the work force during this period. 8. Whether The scope of fields and the boundaries between a researcher in laser optics should be counted as them a.re constantly changing. a physicist or an engineer is a matter of judgment rather than hard-and-fast definition. New interdisciplinary fields emerge from cross-fertilization between subfields or as spinoffs from a fruitful line of research in an established discipline. Categories tend to lag the reality of emerging disciplines. This makes it especially difficult to track disciplines in their formative years. Reliable data on computer scientists and materials scientists, for instance, are just beginning to be available. 9. The level of womens participation in science and engineering varies significantly by field. Women have made gradual gains over the past 15 years in science and engineering, though increases have slowed in recent years. In 1985, their share of science and engineering Ph.D.s declined for the first time, although the decrease was all B.S21 is used throughout the Paper as a shorthand for all baccalaureate degrees by any designation.
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30% 25 20 15 10 5 0 Women as a Proportion of PhDs Al 1 S/E* Fields. 1970-1985 Life .. 0 / / / / / S CIENCE / E NGINEERING Sciences ALL Sci/Eng Chemistry Sciences Physics Engi neering S OURCE : N ATIONAL R ESEARCH C OUNCIL x
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in the social sciences. Ph.D. awards to Women in engineering, life, and physical sciences continued upwards. Women receive two out of three psychology bachelor% degrees and over half of psychology and health sciences Ph.D.s, but only 5 percent of physics Ph.D.s and 7 percent of engineering Ph.D.s. Among graduate students, women are twice as likely as men to be in the life sciences or social/behavioral sciences. In engineering, women tend to concentrate in industrial, chemical, petroleum, and electrical engineering. In all fields, women are more likely than men to be unemployed, underemployed, or working part-time; they are also paid less than men with equivalent experience and credentials. In colleges and universities they are less likely to be tenured or on the tenure track. Gender-stereotyped career expectations and differential treatment of women in traditionally male fields continue to deter their participation. 10. Blacks, Hispanics, and American Indians are affected by a variety of socioeconomic factors that lead to weak academic preparation for a science or engineering major and difficulty remaining in the science and engineering pipeline. Black participation has been chronically depressed in science and engineering. They are more underrepresented than Hispanics or American Indians and have made fewer gains over the past 5 years. In all science and engineering fields and at all junctures in the educational pipeline, blacks are the least likely to goon for further education. Less than lo percent of employed black scientists have a Ph.D., compared to nearly 20 percent of white and 30 percent of Asian scientists. Black engineers have slowly increased over the last 10 years, but still represent only 2 percent of the B.S. degrees and employed engineers. Hispanics and American Indians have shown a similar slow but steady increase in their share of B.S. engineering degrees. 11. Despite their minority status, Asian-Americans have attained a strong presence insolence and engineering and continue to make rapid gains. Asians continue to outpace all others (including whites)in science and engineering participation. Most Asian scientists and engineers, if not foreign citizens, are foreign-born or first-generation Xl )
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immigrants. The high profile and rapid gains of Asian scientists and engineers are skewed towards engineering, the mathematical and computer sciences, chemistry, and physics. The most rapid growth is in engineering. There are twice as many employed Asian-American engineers as there are Asian-American scientists; one-third of the science and engineering Ph.D.s awarded to Asian-Americans are in engineering, compared to just over 10 percent for Hispanics, less than 10 percent for whites, and less than 4 percent for blacks. any group. 12. The increasing Asians are more likely to continue on for higher degrees than presence of foreign nationals is most visible in academic engineering. Foreign nationals are about one-third of all engineering graduate students, more than 40 percent of full-time graduate students, and just under half of recent Ph.D.s. A paucity of American Ph.D. engineers has made universities particularly dependent upon new foreign Ph.D.s to fill faculty teaching and research positions. The high profile of foreign nationals among engineering graduate students, teaching assistants, and faculty raises questions about the quality of teaching in, and attractiveness of engineering for, American students. Foreign students have received a steady 7-9 percent of B.S. engineering degrees since the mid-1970s. In the sciences, foreign students are approximately 15 percent of all graduate students, but the proportion varies widely by field. In 1985, foreign students were much more likely than American students to postdoctoral students stay on to work in the be pursuing full-time graduate work. Most foreign graduate and hold temporary visas. About half of graduate foreign engineers United States, at all degree levels.
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A NOTE ON DATA The field profiles that follow are based on sources that specialize their data analysis and reporting in various ways. This inevitably leads to inconsistencies in definition and methods of counting, be it students enrolled, degrees granted, or scientists and engineers employed. There has been no attempt to reconcile these differences. If estimates differ, this document reports the range and cites the sources. Where systematic differences exist that render one source preferable to another, that source has been used. The main sources of primary data on scientists and engineers are the National Science Foundation (NSF), Department of Education% National Center for Statistics (NCS), the National Research Council (NRC), the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Bureau of the Census, and professional societies. For degree data, NCS provides the only time series at the bachelor% and master% levels; NSF reorganizes these data for reporting purposes. At the doctorate level, the most reliable data are collected by NRC. NSF data begin in 1960; some NRC data go as far back as the 1920s. Definitions Some definitions are in order. Foreign nationals can be broken down into those on temporary and those on permanent visas. The latter are equivalent in status to U.S. citizens, and few in number. Most foreign nationals are students or professionals on temporary visas. Many of these protract their stay in the United States for several years through extensions of visas as students: a minority goon to gain permanent visa status. Minorities fall into two distinct groups. The first are those who are underrepresented in science and engineering relative to their proportion in the U.S. population. These include blacks, Hispanics, and American Indians. They have made few
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or no inroads into science and engineering over the past decade. The second groups Asian-Americans, earn science and engineering degrees at a rate above the national average and represent a growing proportion of the science and engineering work force. Even within these two minority groups, there are significant differences between men and women and among minorities of different national origin, especially among the many Asian cultures. Quantitative analysis of these differences is still limited, however, and will not be discussed in depth in this paper. Employment The most comprehensive estimates unemployment come from the National Science Foundation and Bureau of Labor Statistics. BLS reports employer-based data, whereas NSF uses characteristics of the employee: field of highest degree, field of primary work, and self-identification. NSF reports not only employment, unemployment, and underemployment,* but also the type of work that employed scientists and engineers do. NSF reporting generates three groups: l l l Discussion the total science and engineering work force (including the employed and unemployed); employed scientists and engineers (about 98 percent of the total work force, as scientists and engineers have unemployment rate); and employed scientists and engineers working in engineering jobs. and data in this report generally refer to the a very low science and last group, scientists and engineers currently employed in science and engineering jobs (primarily research and NSF% definition of underemployment includes those who are involuntarily in conscience or engineering jobs or working part-tim~ but seeking full-time employment. NSF adds unemployed work force. [n underutilized. n ttunderutilizedf? Sf3gMent f he and underemployed rates to define an 1986, 6.5 percent of scientists and 2.3 percent of engineers were xvi
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development (R&D) teaching, consulting, R&D management, computing, production, and inspection, according to NSF definitions). This is the active science and engineering work force. Nearly all employed engineers, but only about three-quarters of employed scientists, are in the active science and engineering work force. For scientists, however, the proportion employed in science or engineering jobs varies widely, from over 95 percent for ocean scientists and physicists to less than 65 percent for economists. Overall, 22 percent of employed scientists are working outside of science or engineering. These people constitute a reservoir of talent. This may reflect excess supply, underutilization, changing career interests or demand that pulls scientificallytrained people into non-science jobs. It should be noted that the definition of a science or engineering job is open to liberal interpretation and subject to the vagaries of selfreporting. As a result, NSF employment data may mask people fulfilling several responsibilities, as well as those not directly working in science or engineering but using their technical training in their work. Preliminary 1986 estimates of employment and work activity provided by NSF are used in the present profiles. NSFs Division of Science Resources Studies maintains the Scientific and Technical Personnel Data System (STPDS) to report national characteristics of the U.S. science and engineering work force in 27 fields. NSF publishes these data biennially; the 1986 data included here will be published in mid1987. The STPDS consists of a model that projects changes in the science and engineering work force using field-specific historical growth rates. In addition, several special surveys are conducted, the results of which are used to identify significant deviations in historical growth rates among the fields and characteristics of each. Where appropriate, survey results are incorporated into the STPDS model. Many professional societies collect extensive data on education, degrees, and employment. In some cases this supply and demand information is limited to individual
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or institutional members, while in others data collection spans the entire field. Professional society data in engineering and physics, for example, are both more current and perhaps more accurate than Federal agency data. Source and data idiosyncrasies are discussed below. Physical Sciences Professional societies compile detailed degree and employment information in physics, chemistry, and the geosciences. American Chemical Society data correlate well with Federal sources; American Institute of Physics degree figures are consistently higher by as much as 25 percent. The earth and environmental sciences have been treated differently over time and by different sources. The American Geological Institute collects data on enrollments and degrees by subfield of geoscience. Mathematical and Computer Sciences Computer science is still closely linked in theory and tools of research to the older field of mathematics. Before 1980, combining data into a single reporting category, as NRC has done for research support, may provide a more accurate picture of supply and demand characteristics than do the separate accounts used today. Reliable data on the separate field of computer science begins around 1980. Data on computer science degrees are uncertain and inconsistent, principally because the relative youth of the field means that most practitioners earned their highest degree in some other field. In addition, there are discrepancies in categorizing mathematics, computer theory, computer and information science, and electrical/computer engineering degrees. Estimates of the computer science labor force are only slightly better than educated guesses. There is no accepted definition of a computer scientist. NSF and BLS each report about 450,000 in the occupational category computer specialists, although XVIII
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their estimates are based on independent definitions and data. NSF computer specialists" include self-identified computer and systems analysts as well as computer scientists. Consequently, these estimates significantly overstate the actual number of computer scientists, as the bulk of "computer specialists" are systems analysts. There are no hard and fast rules for distinguishing between someone who uses and maintains computer systems and a computer scientist, or between a senior programmer and a systems analyst. Computer programmers and operators are reported separately. NSF is revising its definition of computer scientist. The National Research Council reports the 1985 computer science Ph.D. labor force those who have received doctorates in computer science to be 3,100 strong. However, the number of Ph.D.s working in computer science is much larger, 13,500 in 1985 (NRC, unpublished data) because so many scientists and engineers with Ph.D.s in other fields have migrated into the young and booming field of computer science. The Computer Science Board, consisting of the chairmen of university computer science departments, has sponsored surveys of academic computer science and engineering research and graduate education since the early 1970s. Similarly, the American Mathematical Society annually collects data on mathematics faculty, employment, graduate enrollments, doctorate awards, and research and education support. The Conference Board on the Mathematical Sciences, an umbrella organization, also undertakes special data collection and analysis with outside project support. Life Sciences Data problems are particularly vexing in the life sciences. A consistent taxonomy of fields does not exist. The NSFS employment and activity estimates of life scientists do not permit easy comparison with its data on life science doctorate degrees. NRC s classification of life science Ph.D. fields differs from the NSF classification. Many of the Ph.D. specialties have no common undergraduate program base, making it difficult to track undergraduate and graduate degree trends. xix
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This lack of consistency is unfortunate. The life sciences constitute a large field: one in five of all scientists in science and engineering positions in 1986 are life scientists. In addition, the life sciences receive large amounts of Federal R&D funds. Of the more than $5 billion in Federal obligations to universities for R&D in 1983, the life sciences received over half, most of which was awarded by the National Institutes of Health (NIH). Lastly, the life sciences as research fields are considered to be especially robust with theoretical and empirical developments emerging at a fast pace. The profiles of the life sciences presented here have been structured to be consistent with the work force and activity classification system used by the National Science Foundation. NSF divides the life sciences into three groups biological sciences, agricultural sciences, and medical sciences. Several implications of this should be noted. The medical sciences include research specialties and work activities in the health and medical fields not directly involved inpatient care. The agricultural sciences do not count agricultural economics, which is considered a social science when NSF reports doctorate data. Lastly, in order to be more or less consistent with NSF% work force estimates, we consider in this paper certain Ph.D. degree specialties included as biological sciences by NRC as medical/health specialties. A related but different approach developed by the Committee on National Needs for Biomedical and Behavioral Research Personnel of the Institute of Medicine deserves mention. Responsible for making recommendations concerning the allocation of training awards under the provisions of the National Research Service Awards Act of 1984 (Public Law 93-348 as amended), the Committee produces a well-respected biennial report that addresses the need for biomedical and behavioral research personnel, the specialties requiring additional personnel, and the kind of training required. The Committee analyzes trends and makes its training recommendations using a field classification that organizes doctorate specialties into clinical science, basic biomedical science, behavioral science, health services research, and nursing research. In doing so, the Committee has assembled enrollment, degree, training, and employment data covering a 20-year period. xx
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Finally, the Committee has devised novel methodologies for examining the supply and demand issues associated with these fields. It provides important information concerning the outlook for psychologists who constitute the core of its broad field, behavioral sciences." The Committees analysis of the basic biomedical sciences is an important contribution to understanding the dynamics operating in research specialties of primary concern to NIH. Social and Behavioral Sciences Comparing degree and employment data turns on what counts as asocial science. Although economics and psychology are the largest subfields and are typically reported separately within the broad category of "social sciences, fields such as "urbanstudies" or "history" are arbitrarily included or excluded by data-collection organizations. The criteria used by NSF and BLS to estimate employment yield predictable disagreements. A psychologist employed as a computer scientist is, according to BLS, a computer scientist. NSF will count that same person as a psychologist if he or she holds a psychology degree and identifies himself or herself as a psychologist. Another data source is the American Psychological Association, which collects extensive data on the employment characteristics of its members. Engineering Accurate estimates of the size of the work force, or the proportions in different engineering specialties, are difficult to come by. BLS and NSF data on the engineering work force have consistently diverged, with BLS estimates historically higher than NSF's. In recent years, this pattern has been reversed. A related problem exists with engineering technology and technician degrees. NCS reports 4-year technology degrees separately; the Engineering Manpower Commission (EMC) of the American Association of Engineering Societies provides more current reports on Bachelor of Technology and xvi
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engineering bachelor% degrees. Associate degrees are reported by both NCS and EMC, but the numbers do not match. The American Electronics Association, an industry organization, does occasional data collection and projections of employment trends in electrical engineering based on employer estimates. xxii
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PHYSICAL SCIENCES The physical sciences encompass physics and astronomy, chemistry, and the earth and environmental sciences. These fields are more different than they are alike in where scientists are employed, the work they do, and the factors driving the demand for new researchers. Research physicists and astronomers depend primarily upon Federal research and development (R&D) support funneled into universities and national laboratories. In chemistry, basic university research is overshadowed by industrial R&D, which employs large numbers of R&D chemists at all degree levels, particularly Ph.D.s. Environmental sciences (comprised of earth, atmospheric, and ocean science specialties) is a small field, with a core of geologists dependent upon the economic health of the oil and mining industries and a collection of interdisciplinary researchers responding to environmental R&D priorities. Generally, undergraduate degrees in the physical sciences have risen slowly but steadily since 1975. Graduate enrollments declined rapidly in the early 1970s, stabilized through the late 1970s and early 1980s, and have increased slightly but steadily since 1982. There is a risk of oversimplifying career patterns of physical scientists, yet there are two primary paths: physical scientists at the doctoral level are employed primarily in research and teaching, and baccalaureate and master% graduates are employed in a variety of jobs and fields. Young scientists respond both to the employment market of a field and the more volatile demand for particular specialties and skills. Growth in graduate enrollments and the number of Ph.D.s conferred, especially in physics, is due almost solely to increases in foreign students. A continuing oversupply of physicists relative to physics research opportunities has made a Ph.D. and several years of postdoctoral experience necessary preparation for a research career. Students have continued to enter physics despite the dearth of research opportunities, perhaps because of the proven ability of bachelors and Ph.D. physicists to 1
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move into other science and engineering fields. Astronomy is a small, university-based, basic research field, with near-total dependence on Federal support, but a theoretically challenging science that attracts many good students. In 1975, the astronomy community began discouraging entry of students into the field and diversifying graduate training to increase the job mobility of new astronomers. Industrial and academic demand for research chemists has been relatively stable, with increasing emphasis on a graduate education for an industrial R&D position. The preferred entry level degree for earth scientists is the master%; there is smaller demand for basic researchers in this field. Many earth scientists are employed in the petroleum and mining industries, which are buffeted by business cycles and resource policies. Physics and chemistry students prolong postdoctoral appointments during periods of sluggish demand. Unemployment is low among Ph.D. physical scientists, higher for recent bachelor% and masters graduates. Within each of these fields, however, shortages and surpluses occur for specific research specialties. Thus, there are current surpluses of new graduates in particle physics and petroleum geology, and at the same time shortages in optical physics and geochemistry. In some instances, there is a continuing mismatch between supply and demand, as in the continuing overproduction of particle physicists and theoretical physicists relative to research opportunities; other mismatches are transitory, such as the cyclical demand for geologists in oil industry exploration and R&D. Women and non-Asian minorities are consistently sciences. They receive only a small share of graduate and an even smaller share of faculty positions. underrepresented in the physical degrees, particularly in physics,
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PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY Employment l There are 40,000 to 70,000 employed physicists States. 1 The vast majority are employed in and astronomers in the United science and engineering (S/E) positions. These figures include astronomers, who represent about 10 percent of the total. l Of physicists and astronomers working in S/E positions, most are employed by educational institutions, lesser proportions by industry and the Federal Government. 2 l The primary work activity of physicists and astronomers employed in S/E is research and development; almost one-half of these are doing basic research. Another one-quarter are in various management positions and about 20 percent are engaged primarily in teaching. 3 l There is a surplus of Ph.D. physicists relative to the number of physics research slots* This surplus is highly mobile and employable; more physics Ph.D.s are working in other fields than is true for any other science. l of employed Ph.D. physicists, one-half work in academia. The rest are divided almost equally between industry and government (including national laboratories). 4 1. Estimates of employed physicists and astronomers vary widely. For example, in 1985 the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 40,000, which included 13,000 teachers. The National Science Foundation% preliminary 1986 estimate is 70,800. National Science Foundation, Science Resources Studies Division, preliminary 1986 estimates, Table B-1, unpublished data. 2. Ibid., Table B-13. 3. Ibid. 4. National Science Foundation, Characteristics of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers in the United States: 1983, NSF 85-303 (Washington, DC: 1985), p. 19,Table B-5. 3
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Education and Supply l The number of baccalaureate physics awards dropped rapidly through the 1970s, but has turned around and increased steadily since 1980. A smaller proportion are going on to graduate study; about one-half of baccalaureate physicists continue with some kind of graduate study, down from 60 percent 10 years ago. However, the decline is due to those changing fields; one-third of physics bachelors continue with physics graduate study. 5 l Graduate enrollments in physics have increased slowly and steadily in the 1980s. However, the increases are solely due to increases in foreign students; the number of U.S.-born physics graduate students has been stable since 1980. 6 l Solid state, elementary particle, and nuclear physics are the leading specialties, but optics, medical physics, and plasma physics are expanding. Increasing attention to industry and government-related studies in graduate education has bolstered interdisciplinary study, particularly with engineering. l Many physics graduate students take terminal masters degrees. Among those who earn a Ph.D., almost half accept postdoctoral appointments. This largely reflects the poor job market for physicists over the past decade. Foreign Nationals, Women, and Minorities l The presence of foreign nationals in physics has increased rapidly since the mid1970s. Twenty-seven percent of physics Ph.D.s were awarded to foreign students on temporary visas in 1985, an additional 3 percent to those on permanent visas. Over one-third of currently enrolled physics graduate students are foreign national s 7 A mon g th e s c i ence s, p h y s i c s has a high proportion of foreign nationals 5. National Research Council, Physics Survey Committee, Physics Through the 1990s: An Overview (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1986), p. 110. 6. National Science Foundation, Academic Science/Engineering: Graduate Enrollment ..... and Support, Fall 1983, NSF 85-300 (Washington, DC: 1985), pp. 104, 130 = 31, tables C-6? C-27, C-28, and unpublished NSF dataon 1984and 1985 enrollments. 5
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among employed Ph.D.s nearly 8 percent. 8 l Women are still scarce in physics. Their participation is the lowest of all sciences, at all degree levels. Between 1980 and 1985, women received just over 7 percent of the physics Ph.D.s awarded. l Blacks and Hispanics combined are 3 percent of employed Ph.D. physicists; Asians represent 9 percent. In the past 10 years, Asian-Americans have received seven times as many physics Ph.D.s as blacks and five times as many Hispanics. Although U.S. citizens, many of these Asian-Americans are foreign-born. Astronomy l There is a continuing oversupply of astronomers; research jobs are severely limited. Over half of Ph.D. astronomers work in Ph.D.-producing universities, many as nonfaculty researchers and postdoctorates; many of the rest work in government. 7. Ibid. 8. National Science Foundation, Characteristics of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers in the United States: 1983, op. cit., p. 12, Table B-3.
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CHEMISTRY Employment l The chemistry work force is large and heavily industrial. Chemistry is second only to the biological sciences in number of researchers. l There are between 129,000 and 195,000 chemists employed in the United States, most in S/E positions. Over two-thirds of S/E chemists about 20 percent in academia and over 10 percent in government. 9 are employed in industry, Federal, State and local l Over one-third of the S/E employed chemists are engaged in R&D. Another 25 percent are in management positions and 14 percent in teaching. 10 l The demand for chemists is driven in great part by industry. Industry conducts a significant amount of chemistry research; about 25 percent of the basic research community works in industry. The chemical industry employs the highest proportion of Ph.D.s of any industry. l Of employed chemists, one-quarter hold the Ph.D. and the masters, respectively. The terminal degree of the rest is the bachelor%. There is no shortage of chemists. Chemistry is a flexible discipline; when one segrnent of the industry is in a downturn, chemists find related jobs. Chemists are relatively mobile; in 1983, one in three Ph.D. chemists were employed in other fields, compared to one in five computer science and two in five physics/astronomy Ph.D.s. 11 9. In 1985, the Bureauof Labor Statistics reported 129,000 chemists, including 18,000 teachers. The Census Bureau estimated 110,620 chemists in 1980. The National Science Foundation% preliminary 1986 estimateis 195,200. National Science Foundation, Science Resources Studies Division, preliminary 1986 estimates, Table B-l, unpublished data. 10. Ibid., Tabie B-13. 11. National Research Council, Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel, Science, Engineering and Humanities Doctorates in the Ugited States: 1983 Profile (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1985Ap. 18, Table 2-2. 8
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l Technicians are particularly important to chemistry R&D and production, but little is known about them. Some have a bachelor% in chemistry and many enter the market with 2-year associate degrees. The chemical industry employs around 40,000 chemical technicians; perhaps another 20,000 are employed in other manufacturing industries. 12 Education l Increasingly, employment a Ph.D. is the in chemistry, Ph.D.s are awarded annually l About 11,000 students get a 2,000 of these students go but accepted qualification not only for academic for industrial employment as well. About 1,800 in chemistry. bachelor% degree on for a Ph.D.; in chemistry each year. Fewer than another 1,000 get a master%. The average time to Ph.D. for 1984 chemistry Ph.D.s was slightly over 6 years since the bachelor%, the fastest of all fields. l One or more years of postdoctoral research is accepted preparation for an academic research career. Almost one-half of new Ph.D.s goon to a postdoctoral appointment. 13 Foreign Nationals l The number of foreign graduate students in chemistry is rising slowly, although it is not as high as in physics and engineering. In 1985, nearly one in five of the Ph.D.s awarded went to foreign nationals on temporary visas; an additional 5 percent went to foreign nationals on permanent visas. 12. National Science Foundation, Scientists, Engineers, and Technicians i n Manufacturing Industries: 1983, hJSF85-328 (Washington, DC: 1985), p. 23, Table D-2. 13. National Research Council, Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel, Doctorate Recipients from United States Universities: Summary Report 1984 (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1986), p.34, Table 2. 9
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l More foreign students are staying in the doctorate. Three in five on temporary visas United States after receiving their enter postdoctoral research, with only 5 percent going directly into industry. Women and Minorities l Women have made slow but steady progress in chemistry at all degree levels. The proportion of chemistry Ph.D.s earned by women has doubled in 10 years, from 10 percent in 1975 to nearly 20 percent in 1985. l Women are 13 percent of employed chemists (up from 6 percent a decade ago), but over one-quarter of unemployed chemists seeking work. Women chemists in academia are more likely to be in junior positions, untenured, and more than twice as likely to be working part time. l Blacks and Hispanics have made no gains in chemistry in the past IO years. Blacks receive fewer than 2 percent of chemistry Ph.D.s, and barely more than 2 percent of bachelors degrees. In comparison, Asian-Americans earned 6 percent of the chemistry Ph.D.s in 1985, up from 1 percent in 1975. 12
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EARTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Overview l l l The earth and environmental sciences encompass marine and atmospheric sciences in addition to the traditional core of geological sciences and geophysics. The field is small and interdisciplinary. Demand is especially unpredictable in the earth sciences. Expansion through the mid-1970s was halted by the OPEC-triggered recession. In 1981, 60 percent of companies reported a shortage of petroleum engineers; 2 years later, the shortage 14 There is currently no shortage. was down to 20 percent. There is a surplus of bachelor% and master% earth scientists education just before the current downturn in the curtailed exploration and surveying. Government modest. The academic market is poor. petroleum and employment is who began their mining industries more stable, but Employment l There are between 60,000 and 112,500 earth and environmental scientists employed in the United States. 15 With 90 percent in science and engineering (S/E) positions. Of these, earth scientists outnumber atmospheric scientists and oceanographers combined 4 to 1. 16 14. Basedon 1981-85 tabulationsof the Rapid Industry Limited Response Survey Panel on Science/Engineering Personnel Resources, reported in Joel BarriersS t Shortage s Increase for Engineering Personnel in Industry, n Highlights, NSF 85-309 (Washington, DC: March 29, 1985). 15. In 1985, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 63,000, which included 58,000 geoscientists plus 5,000 earth, environmental and marine science teachers. The National Science Foundation% preliminary 1986 estimate is 112,500 employed in the U.S. work force. This includes 94,300 earth scientists, 14,400 atmospheric scientists, and 3,700 oceanographers. National Science Foundation, Science Resources Studies Division, op. cit., Table B-1. 16. Ibid., Table B-13. 13
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l Of the 86,000 earth scientists estimated to be employed in S/E positions in 1986, two-thirds are employed in industry, while the rest distribute almost equally between academia and the Federal Government. 17 l One-third of development, management. teaching. 18 the S/E employed earth scientists are engaged in research and one quarter are in production activities, less than one-fifth in Less than 10 percent are estimated to be primarily engaged in l Earth and environmental science Ph.D.s exhibit the lowest mobility of all science and engineering doctorate holders. In 1983, only one in five was employed outside, his/her specialty 19 I n environmental scientists 1985, however, less than 1 percent of Ph.D. earth and were unemployed and seeking jobs. 20 Education . l The masters, and to a lesser extent the bachelor%, are entry level degrees. Earth scientists are much less likely than physicists or chemists to have a Ph.D. l Bachelor% awards in earth science, now about 7,000 per year, have increased steadily since the mid-1960s. About 2,000 masters degrees are conferred each year. 21 l Earth sciences Ph.D.s have fluctuated around 600-650 per year for the past 10 years, with geological sciences slightly more than half the total. 22 The production 17. Ibid. 18. [bid. 19. National Research Council, office of Scientific Science, Engineering and Humanities Doctorates in the -.. --. ---- ---.. op~-cit., p. 18, Table 2-2. ~oc National Research Council, Office of Scientific unpublished data from the seventh (1985) biennial survey of and Engineering Personnel, United States: 1983 Profile, . and Engineering Personnel, U.S. doctorate recipients. 21* Earth sciences degree data based on surveys conducted by the American Geolog!cai Institute, cited in Manpower Comments, vol. 23, No. 5, June 1986, p. 18. 22. National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Doctorates: 1960-82, NSF 83-328 (Washington, DC: no date), p. 17, Table 1. Data for 1983-85 from Nationa~ Research Council, Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel, Doctorate Recipients from United States Universities, op. cit. 15
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of Ph.D.s rose steadily through the 1960s and plateaued in the early 1970s. Recent graduate enrollments have declined, probably in response to the poor job market. Women, Minorities, and Foreign Nationals l The number of female earth scientists has increased rapidly since 1970, but there are still relatively few among professional ranks. bachelor% and master% earth science degrees, awarded. However, they are still only 6 percent and at best 10 percent of all such scientists. 23 Women earn about me-quarter of and almost one-fifth the Ph.D.s of employed Ph.D. earth scientists l Minorities have not made inroads into the earth sciences. Blacks are less than 1 percent of employed earth scientists, Hispanics and Asians about 2 percent each 2 4 Earth sciences attract fewer Asians than do other sciences. Among recent earth science Ph.D.s, 0.5 percent are black, 1 percent Hispanic, and 3-5 percent Asian-American. 25 l The earth sciences attract fewer foreign students than other physical sciences; even so, one in five 1985 Ph.D.s were foreign students on temporary visas. 26 The proportion of foreign nationals in earth and environmental science graduate 23. National Science Foundation, U.S. Scientists and Engineers: 1984, unpublished data, 1984, p. 100, Table B-9; and National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Personnel: A National Overview, NSF 85-302 (Washington, DC: 1985), p. 116, Table B12b. 24. National Science Foundation, U.S. Scientists and Engineers: 1984, op. cit., p. 53, Table B-5. 25. National Research Council, Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel, Doctorate Recipients from United States Universities: Summary Report 1985, unpublished data. 26. Ibid.; data for 1985 are unpublished. 16
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programs increased slightly between 1980 and 1985. In 1985, foreign nationals represented about 15 percent of full-time earth and environmental graduate students 27 27. National Science Foundation, Academic Science/Engineering: Graduate Enrollment and Support: Fall 1983, op.cit., p. 102, Table C-5; and National Science Foundation, .. Division of Science Resources Studies, Science and Engineering Education Sector Studies Group, Selected Data on Graduate Science/Engineering Students and Postdoctorates by Citizenship, n unpublished data, October 1986, Tables B-13 and B14. 17
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MATHEMATICAL AND COMPUTER SCIENCES The mathematical and computer sciences are a union of old and new that is altering both fields. Computer science is a young and interdisciplinary field with theoretical roots in mathematics and close ties to engineering. Computer science emerged from mathematical computer theory during the 1960s. Research in the two fields is intimately connected. For this reason, they are profiled in a section of their own. Mathematics is closely tied to advances in computer turn, high-speed computer graphics and numerical analysis and directions in mathematical research. Because of close theory and applications. In have spurred new advances ties in research, theory, and financial support, it is difficult to separate data and analysis of degrees, the work force, and financial support in the two fields. For example, the 15-year decline in mathematical degrees has been accompanied by an increase in computer science degrees. In addition, much of industry demand for computer scientists has bee n interchangeable with demand for electrical engineers. Data and trends in computer science are related to computer engineering, the fastest growing engineering specialty. In 1984, the David Report argued vigorously for increased Federal support of mathematical research as a resource to other fields. 28 The recent Griffiths Report on the mathematical sciences reinforces this view: Mathematics is the underpinning of revolutionary changes taking place in all scientific and engineering fields as a result of the advent of powerful computers. The development of scientific computing has not only highlighted a host of critical new mathematical matical problems, it has introduced new tools for mathematicians. 29 28. National Research Council, Renewin g U.S. Mathematics: Critical Resource for the Future (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1984). 29. National Research Council, Panel on Mathematical Sciences, Mathematical Sciences: A Unifying and Dynamic Resource (Washington, DC: National Academy Pres< 1986), p.5. 19
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. For these reasons alone, education and employment in the mathematical and computer sciences are seen as especially vital to the future health of U.S. science and technology. 20
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MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES Employment/Demand l In 1986, there are estimated to be 116,400 mathematicians and employed in the United States. Ninety percent are employed in engineering (S/E) positions, with one-third working in industry, statisticians science and one-half in academia, l The basic 4,000 and university and most others in the Federal Government. 30 research community in the mathematical sciences numbers between 7,000, representing over 90 percent of the mathematics college and faculty. 31 Research i n app li e d mathematics and Statistics Often extends to problems in other fields such as engineering, computer science, optics, and biology. l Mathematicians are the most likely of all doctorate scientists to be academically employed. In 1986, one-half of all mathematicians are estimated to be working principally in teaching. Based on the 1985 the National Research Council survey, three out of four Ph.D. mathematicians ar e employed in educational institutions. 32 Ph.D. statisticians, however, are less likely to work in academia. Mathematicians have the highest tenure rate of all scientists, 70 percent. Education/Supply l Ph.D. awards in mathematics peaked in 1970 (at 1,236), sharing in the across-theboard proliferation in science funding and enrollment during the 1960s. 33 These 30. National Science Foundation, Division of Science Resources Studies, preliminary 1986 estimates, unpublished data, Tables B-land B-13. 31. National Research Council, Panelon Mathematical Sciences, op. cit.,p. 34. 32. National Research Council, Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel, unpublished data, 1985. 33. National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Degrees: 1950-80. A Sourc& Book, NSF 82-307 (Washington, DC: 1982), p. 49, Table 29; and National Research Council, Officeof Scientific and Engineering Personnel, unpublished data, 1985. 24
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l l l l l graduates created a substantial bulge in the supply of mathematicians; while Federal support fell (in real terms) during the 1970s, the number of mathematical researchers doubled. Ph.D. awards dropped 41 percent between 1970 and 1980 and a further 7 percent from 1980 to 1985. 34 Surveys b y the Mathematical Association of America indicate that the demand for undergraduate mathematics teaching exceeds the supply of fully qualified teachers. More undergraduates are being time faculty. There are about 10,000 enrolled graduate students, but only about awarded in mathematics each year. The average length of graduate who do get degrees is nearly 7 years. taught by part700 Ph.D.s are study for those In 1983, one in five math Ph.D.s planned postdoctoral study. A higher proportion of foreign students go on to a postdoctorate; in 1985 one-half of the mathematics postdoctorates were foreign nationals. 35 Mathematics bachelor% and master% degrees peaked in 1970 and 1969, respectively, dropped precipitously through the 1970s, and have rebounded slightly in the 1980s. Graduate enrollments have also risen slightly, though the rebound has not increased Ph.D. awards. It is important to look at mathematics and computer sciences degree data together, since the decline in mathematics degrees during the late 1970s was accompanied by an increase in computer science degrees. At the bachelor% level, a rapid rise in computer sciences during 1975 to 1985 masked a continuing drop in mathematics 34. Ibid.; data for 1981-84 from the National Research Council, Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel~ annual surveys of doctorate recipients from U.S. universities, 1985 unpublished data (does not include Ph.D.sin computer science). 35. National Science Foundation, Division of Science Resources Studies, Selected Data on Graduate Science/Engineering Students and Postdoctorates by Citizenship n op. cit., Table A-24.
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degrees. By 1983, bachelor% degrees had started rising and the drop in mathematics Ph.D.s had slowed. Forei gn Nationals l The proportion and increasing. of In mathematics Ph.D.s awarded to non-U.S. citizens is substantial 1985, one in three mathematics Ph.D.s were awarded to non-U.S. citizens on temporary visas, up from one in five in 1976, the number of mathematics Ph.D.s awarded to non-U.S. while the total number of mathematics Ph.D.s fell. 36 Between 1980 and 1984, citizens rose 30 percent, l Half as many U.S. citizens received mathematical sciences Ph.D.s in 1985 as in 1973. Of foreign mathematics Ph.D. recipients with temporary visas, perhaps onehalf stay in the United States for some time. graduation plans, 60 percent planned to stay in the in 1982, up from 40 percent in 1972. 37 For those who had firm postUnited States for study or work l Over 90 percent of new foreign Ph.D.s on permanent visas stay in the United States. In 1982, 5 percent of employed mathematicians were foreign nationals and more than 10 percent were naturalized citizens. 38 Women and Minorities l Women have long had a significant presence in mathematics, particularly at the 39 Although bachelor% level. One in five employed mathematicians is a woman. 36. National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Doctorates: 1960-82, op.cit., pp. 44-45, Table 2. Data for the 1981-85 period from, National Research .. .. . Council, Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel, op. cit. 37. National Science Foundation, Division of Science Resources Studies, Directorate for Scientific, Technological, and International Affairs, Foreign Citizens in U.S. Science and Engineering (Washington, DC: 1985), p. 63, Chart 3.10. 38. Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Labor and Policy Studies Program, Foreign National Scientists and Engineers in the U.S. Labor Force, 1972-1982 (Oak Ridge, TN: June 1985), p. 42, Table A-17. 39. National Science Foundation, U.S. Scientists and Engineers: 1984, op. cit., p. 57, Table B-6. 27
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over 40 percent of bachelor% degrees are awarded employed baccalaureate mathematicians, and less Ph.D. mathematicians are women. 40 to women, only 30 percent of than 10 percent of employed The 1984 unemployment rate for women in mathematics was 2.8 percent; for men it was 2 percent. The 1984 underemployment rate was 6.1 percent for women and 2 percent for men. Women receive about one-third of master's degrees in mathematics. This share has been fairly steady since the beginning of the 1970s, and was not much lower during the 1960s. Women receive have achieved about 15 percent of the Ph.D.s in mathematics and only recently even this level of participation. (The picture is similar in statistics.) The advance of women in the mathematical sciences seems to have plateaued during the 1980s. Seven blacks received mathematics Ph.D.s in 1985 about 1 percent of the 41 Blacks receive about 5 percent of mathematics Ph.D.s granted that year. bachelor% degrees in mathematics. Minority students, and to a lesser extent women, are handicapped by their lower exposure to mathematics in high school. Blacks represent less than 5 percent of all employed mathematicians at all degree levels. This proportion is the same for Asians, but even smaller for Hispanics. In addition, blacks and Asians are more likely to be in teaching and less likely to be in research and development. 40. National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Degrees: 1950-80, OP. cit., p. 49, Table 29; and National Science Foundation, Science and Engineeri~g-Personnel: A National Overview, op. cit.,p. 115, Table B-12b. ... 41. National Research Council, officeof Scientific and Engineering Personnel, op. cit. 28
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COMPUTER SCIENCE Education/Supply l l l l l l Computer science is the fastest growing science. Between 1977 and 1985, the number of computer science graduate students rose more than 15 percent per year, from 9,000 to nearly 30,000. 42 In 1985, about 315 computer science Ph.D.s were awarded. Over the past 3 years, computer science Ph.D. awards have increased 5-15 percent per year, and the rate is accelerating. 43 Graduate students in computer science come from a wide variety of degrees and the majority of practicing computer scientists do not undergraduate have a formal degree in the area. Less than 20 percent of recent computer science Ph.D.s have a bachelor% in computer science. Significant in-mobility of Ph.D.s into computer science is from mathematics and physics. With a computer science matures 44 More than half of declining supply of mathematics Ph.D.s, this influx should dwindle Ph.D.s and a growing pool of through the 1980s as the field computer science graduate students in 1985 were part time, by far the highest of all sciences and engineering. Computer science also has the smallest proportion of postdoctorates of any science or engineering field. Over 6,000 master% degrees in computer science were granted in 1984, more than doubling since 1978. But the most explosive growth in computer science has been 42. National Science Foundation, Academic Science/Engineering: Graduate Enrollment and Support, Fall 1983, op. cit., p. 62, Table B-1; and unpublished data. 43. National Research Council, Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel, annual survey of doctorate recipients in U.S. universities, unpublished data, 1985. 44. The Computer Science Board, Committee on Research Funding in Computer Science, Imbalance Between Growth and Funding in Academic Computer Science: Two Trends Colliding (April 9, 1986), pp. 8-9. -. 29
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at the bachelor% level. There were 32,000 bachelor% degrees awarded in 1984, compared to less than 5,000 in 1975, an annual growth rate of 20 percent. And this 45 Many universities are pace has accelerated since 1980 to 30 percent per year. limiting undergraduate computer science enrollments while expanding their faculty 46 This trend, however, will probably not continue* to meet continuing demand. Only half the number of freshmen in 1985 as in 1983 indicated plans for a computer science major. Employment/Demand l l l l l Just under half of recent computer science Ph.D.s work in universities and colleges, and just under half in industry research and development. Demand for computer scientists is high, particularly at the Ph.D. level where it is three or four times current production. 47 Ph.D. computer scientists earn the highest salaries among scientists at the same experience level. Academic salaries are also well above the average and approach those of engineering and business faculty. Academic demand is still high and will continue to increase, though it has eased significantly from the near-crisis of the 1970s when potential faculty and graduate students flocked to lucrative jobs in industry. Federal funding and industry financial and equipment support have improved academic departments. The number of graduate departments of computer science increased from 91 in 1976 to 146 in 1983. 48 Departments are still understaffed, and shortages for computer science faculty in 4-year colleges are particularly high. One analyst estimates that only half of 45. National Center for Statistics, unpublished data, 1984, Table 112. 46. The Computer Science Board, op. cit.,p. 6. 47. [bid., p. 8. 48. Ibid., p. 25, Table la. 30
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l l l current computer science faculty have a Ph. D., and only half of these have their Ph.D. in computer science. 49 Competition among universities, colleges, high-paying industry, and large research institutes for a limited pool of Ph.D.s is positions for computer science went unfilled Computer scientists are the youngest and brisk. Fifteen percent of academic in 1981-83. 50 least tenured of academic scientists. Almost 40 percent of faculty in graduate departments are assistant professors, with 35 percent full professors. 51 Over three-quarters of baccalaureate computer scientists go directly into industry, where salary offers are the highest among the sciences and almost as high as engineering. Foreign Nationals l Foreign students have joined the technological gold rush to computer science. Foreign students on temporary visas received one-third of the computer science Ph.D.s awarded in 1985, up from 11 percent in 1977. This pace is similar to that in engineering. 52 l Forty percent of full-time graduate students in Ph.D. schools are foreign. Foreign students receive about 5 percent of bachelor% and 20 percent of master% degrees in computer science. 49. John W. Hamblen, Computer Manpower Supply and Demand b~ States, 1984 (Tallahassee, FL: Quad Data Corp, 1984), cited in The Computer Science Board, op. cit., p. 10. 50. Scientific Manpower Commission, The Technological Marketplace: Supply and Demand for Scientists and Engineers, 3rd ed. (Washington, DC: May 1985), p. 38, Table .. .. 29. 51. David Gries, The Computer Science Board, The 1984-85 Taulbee Surve y (Ithaca, NY: Department of Computer Science, Cornell University, June 1986~p.6. 52. Ibid.; The Taulbee Survey repopts 122 foreign nationals out ofa totalof 326, 0r37 percent, in 1985. The National Research Council, Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel, annual survey of doctorate recipients in U.S. universities, 1985, unpublished data, reports 89 foreign nationals outof 311, or29 percent. 31
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l Most foreign computer scientists at both the bachelor% and Ph.D. levels remain to work in the United States, more than in any other field. 53 Foreign computer scientists are important as new hires in the electronics and computer industries as well as academia. In Silicon Valley companies, they may constitute as much as one-third of the work force. 54 l Foreign computer scientists comprise over one-third of university faculty, a proportion unmatched across the sciences or engineering. Women and Minorities l Computer science has been an accepting field of graduate study and employment for women. Nine percent of employed computer science Ph.D.s are women, the highest proportion outside the social and biological sciences. Women earned 1 0 percent of the Ph.D.s in 1985 and over one-third the bachelor% degrees in 1984. 55 one-quarter of full-time graduate students are women, as are those the National Science Foundation (NSF) classifies as "computer specialists." l Minorities, with the exception of Asians, have not shared in the expansion of the field. Blacks have made no gains in the past 5 years; they currently receive 5-6 percent of Bachelor's degrees and less than 1 percent of Ph.D.s. Hispanics receive about 3 percent of bachelors degrees and 1-2 percent of Ph.D.s. l Asians have doubled their participation over the past 5 years to over 5 percent of bachelors and Ph.D. computer science degrees. 53. U S General Accounting Office, Plansof Foreign Ph.D. Candidates: postgraduate Plans of U.S. Trained Foreign Students in Science/Engineerin~, GAO/RCED-86-102FS (Washington, DC: February 1986~p.3. 54. National Science Foundation, ~oreign Citizens in U.S. Science and E~gineering: History, Status, and Outlook, op. cit.,p. 75, Charts 5.1 and5.2. 55. National Research Council, Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel, annual survey of doctorate recipients in U.S. universities, 1985, unpublished data, reports 33 of 311 Ph.D.s, or 10.6 percent, and the Computer Science Board, reports 32 women out of 326 Ph.D.s, or9.8 percent; bachelors data from National Center for Statistics.
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l Among NSF "computer specialists" 6 percent are Asian, 3 percent black, 2 percent Hispanic, and 0.4 percent American Indian. Under NSF/Bureau of Labor Statistics definitions, the single largest area of employment of minority scientists and engineers is computers.
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The life sciences, the specialties are LIFE SCIENCES sciences represent a large number of fields that span the biological health/medical sciences, and the agricultural sciences. Life sciences classified differently by data source. Their assignment to the biological or the health sciences sometimes depends on the academic department, school, or college which offers the program leading to the Ph. D., making comparisons difficult. The biological sciences are comprised of a core set of disciplines devoted to the understanding of human instrumentation and the between fields continue and animal life. As the application of new and sophisticated pace of biological discovery have accelerated, the boundaries to blur. Basic biological fields represent the largest and most vibrant segment of the life sciences. In 1985, the biological sciences accounted for twothirds of all life sciences Ph.D.s. Biochemistry is the largest disciplinary specialty; biochemistry plus microbiology, molecular biology, and physiology represented 41 percent of all life sciences Ph.D.s in 1985. The health/medical sciences are a diverse set of health-related research specialties not directly involved in clinical care. These include environmental and public health, epidemiology, pathology, pharmacology, and nursing. Pharmacy/pharmacology represented one-third of all health/medical sciences doctorates awarded in 1985. These plus nursing and public health accounted for roughly three of every five health/medical sciences Ph.D.s conferred in 1985. The agricultural sciences also consist of an array of fields and specialties. These include agronomy, animal science, plant science, soil science, food science and technology, range science, horticulture, fish and wildlife science, and forestry. The agricultural sciences represented one-fifth of the life sciences Ph.D.s awarded in 1985. Four broad specialties agronomy, animal science, plant science, and food science accounted for almost two-thirds of the 1985 agricultural sciences doctorates. This 34
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category does not include agricultural economics. The National Science Foundation science and engineering work force data count this field as asocial science. About 160 Ph.D.s in agricultural economics are awarded each year (which the National Research Council classifies under the agricultural sciences). The Nation% colleges and universities continue to produce large numbers of agricultural sciences graduates. Despite the currently widespread depression of the U.S. food and agricultural economy, agricultural products continue to constitute a large portion of U.S. exports and agricultural industries. Much about 20 percent of U.S. civilian jobs are in food and of the growth and relative stability in the employment of agricultural scientists is in the extensive nationwide network of U.S. Department of Agriculture research facilities and the State agricultural experiment stations associated with the land-grant universities. 35
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BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES Employment l There are 90,000 to 275,000 biological scientists employed in the United States. Of these, over 80 percent are employed in science and engineering (S/E) positions. 56 l Less than one-half of the biological sciences S/E work force is employed by educational institutions. Industry employs about one-quarter and the Federal Government 15 percent. 57 About 40 percent of biological scientists in the S/E work force are engaged primarily in research and development (R&D), with more than half of them conducting basic research. One-fifth positions respectively .58 l There are about 66,500 Ph.D.s in the quarter of the total; master% degrees work force. 59 are in various management and teaching biological sciences work force about a holders represent another one-third of this l More than one-half of biological sciences Ph.D.s are principally employed in R&D positions, with over 20 percent in teaching, and 10 percent in various management positions. 60 56. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 90,000 in 1985 (unpublished data); the National Science Foundation estimates 272,000 in 1986. National Science Foundation, Division of Science Resources Studies, preliminary 1986 estimates, Table B-1, unpublished data. 57. National Science Foundation, Division of Science Resources Studies, preliminary 1986 estimates, Table B-13, unpublished data. 58. Ibid. 59. Ibid., Table B-Ii. 60. National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Personnel: A National Overview, op. cit., pp. 116, 120, Table=-= 37
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. Education l The number of bachelor% degrees awarded in the biological sciences has followed an erratic path. In 1950, slightly more than 24,000 bachelors degrees were conferred. This number declined steadily through 1955 and began an increase to over 40,000 in 1970. The number of degrees peaked in 1976 at 59,000 and has declined each year since then. In 1984, 38,640 bachelor% degrees were awarded. 61 The number of Ph.D.s conferred in the biological sciences doubled between 1950 and 1960 to about 1,200 a year, reaching 2,100 in 1966. Between 1974 and 1985 the number of Ph.D.s has been between 3,100 and 3,500 each year. 62 l The number of full-time graduate students in the biological sciences enrolled in doctorate-granting institutions declined slightly between 1977 and 1983, but has since turned upwards. 63 Women, Minorities, and Foreign Nationals l Women's share of biological sciences bachelor% degrees increased from about 20 percent in 1950 to about 45 percent in 1984. 64 In 1985, women accounted for one in three Ph.D.s conferred in the biological sciences. 65 l In 1986, women constitute one-fourth of one-fifth of the doctorate-level contingent 61. National Science Foundation, Science and the biological sciences work force and of this work force. 66 Emzineerimz Demees: 1950-80.0mc it. p. 53, Table 33. Data for 1981-8 t of Education, N~tionai Center for Statistics, unpublished. 62. Ibid.; Ph.D. data for 1981-85 from National Research Council, Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel, Doctorate Recipients From United States Universities (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, annually). .--.. --63. National Science Foundation, Academic Science/Engineering: Graduate EnrollmeQ and Support, Fall 1983, op. cit., p. 113, Table C-14; National Science Foundation, Division of Science Resources Studies, Selected Data on Graduate Science/Engineering Students by Enrollments Status, Fall 1985/ unpublished data, Tables A-land C-6. 64. National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Degrees: 1950-80, op. cit, and National Center for Statistics, ufiublished data. 65. National Research Council, Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel, Doctorate Recipients From United States Universities, op. cit. 66. ...-. National Science Foundation, Division of Science Resources Studies, preliminary 39
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l Blacks are severely underrepresented in the biological sciences. They represent only 2 to 3 percent of the biological sciences work force and 1.5 percent of the doctorate-level employees. 67 l 0ver 15 percent of the 38,000 full-time graduate students in the biological sciences in 1985 were foreign citizens up from about 10 percent in 1976. 68 l In 1985, foreign students on temporary visas received 11 percent of Ph.D.s award in the biological sciences. 69 l Of the biological sciences Ph.D.s conferred in 1985, Asians accounted for 4 percent, black and Hispanics each under 2 percent. 70 1986 estimates, Tables B-l, B-11, unpublished data. 67. ibid.,TableB-12. 6a. National Science Foundation, Academic Science/Engineering: Graduate Enrollment and Suppo rt: Fall 1983, op. cit., pp. 130-31, Tables C27and C28,and National Science -. ... Foundation, Division of Science Resources Studies, %elected Data on Graduate Science/Engineering Students and Postdoctorates by Citizenship/top. cit., Table A-9. 69. National Research Council, Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel, Doctorate Recipients From United States Universities, op. cit. 70. ... Ibid. 41)
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. HEALTH/MEDICAL SCIENCES Employment l There are an estimated 32,000 to 47,000 United States. Of these, over 90 percent health/medical scientists employed in the are employed in S/E positions. 71 l About 60 percent of the health/medical sciences S/E work force is employed by educational institutions. Industry and nonprofit institutions account for about 17 percent each and the Federal Government for 4 percent. 72 l About 40 percent of the health/medical primarily in R&D, with 25 percent in respectively. 73 l About two-thirds of health/medical percent hold a master% degree. 74 Of some sciences S/E work force is engaged form of management and in teaching, scientists hold a doctorate. Less than 1 the employed doctorate holders, one in three is engaged in R&D, one in five in teaching, and in some form of management. 75 Education l The number of Ph.D.s awarded annually in the health/medical sciences increased between 1975 and 1982 by 50 percent. [n 1985, 1,082 Ph.D.s were conferred. 76 71. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 47,000 in 1985 (unpublished data); National Science Foundation estimates 32,000 in 1986. National Science Foundation, Science Resources Studies Division, preliminary 1986 estimates, Table B-1, unpublished data. 72. Ibid., Table B-13. 73. Ibid. 74. Ibid., Table B-1 1. 75. National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Personnel: A National Overview, op. cit., pp. 116, 120, and 124, Table B-12b. .- 76. National Research Council, Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel, Doctorate Recipients from United States Universities: Summary Report 1983, op. cit., p. 47, Appendix Table B. Data for 1985 are unpublished. Certain changes in the National Research Council doctorate fields were made to parallel National Science Foundationts occupational categories; degrees awarded in parasitology, pathology, and pharmacology were subtracted from the biological sciences and added to the health sciences. 41
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l The number of full-time graduate students in the health/medical sciences enrolled in doctorate-granting institutions increased between 1976 and 1980, declined slightly and has now plateaued. 77 Women, Minorities, and Foreign Nationals l b l l l Women earn a majority of the health/medical sciences doctorates. [n 1985, women represented 60 percent of the Ph.D.s conferred in these fields. 78 Womens recent gains i n earning doctorates have not yet shown up in the workplace. In 1984, women were over 20 percent of both the employed In 1986, blacks health/medical health/medical scientists and of the work force holding doctorates. 79 Blacks and Hispanics are severely underrepresented in these fields. and Hispanics each constituted slightly over 1 percent of the science work force and of the doctorate-holders in that work force. 80 In 1985, blacks received 3 percent of the health sciences Ph.D.s awarded. 81 The number of foreign full-time graduate students enrolled in doctoral programs has steadily increased since 1976, representing 11 percent of the health/medical sciences enrollment in 1985. 82 In 1985, foreign citizens on temporary visas received 13 percent of the health sciences Ph.D.s awarded. 83 77. National Science Foundation, Academic Science/Engineeri~: Graduate Enrollment .- and Support, Fall 1983, op. cit., p. 113, Table C-14; and unpublished data. -78. National Research Council, Ph.D. data for 1985 from Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel, unpublished data. 79. National Science Foundation, U.S. Scientists and Engineers; 1984, op. cit., pp. 37, 110, Tables B-1 and B-11. 80. National Science Foundation, Division or Science Resources Studies, pre!im!nar:: 1986 estimates, Table B-12, unpublished data. 81. National Research Council, Office of Scientific and Engineering Persoane.. unpublished data. 82. National Science Foundation, Division of Science Resources Studies, Seiected Data on Graduate Science/Engineering Students and Postdoctorates by C itizenship, CP. cit., Table A-15. 83. National Research Council, Ph. D. data for 1985 from the office C)f Sc ient ~ Y:c arid Engineering Personnel, unpublished data. 43
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. AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES Education and Supply l l l The number of resources fields 6,000 annually. students earning bachelor% degrees in agricultural and natural declined markedly between 1950 and 1961 from 15,000 to under After 1961 the fields showed steady growth, peaking at 22,000 in 1979 and declining slightly each year to about 19,000 in 1984. Master% degrees have followed a similar pattern since 1970 with over 4,000 conferred in 1984. 84 The number of Ph.D.s awarded nearly doubled between 1960 and 1970 to 800. Despite sharp fluctuations in the last 15 years, Ph.D. production has increased. Over l,l00 were awarded in 1985. No single discipline within the agricultural sciences accounts for more than 20 percent of the Ph.D.s. In 1985, the distribution was plant science and animal sciences, 18 percent each; food science, 12 percent; soil science and forestry, 9 percent each; and horticulture, and fish and wildlife, 7 percent each. Employment l There are an estimated 65,000 to 102,000 agricultural scientists employed in the United States. Of these, almost 80 percent are employed in S/E positions. 85 l Nearly one-half of the agricultural science S/E work force is employed in industry. About one-third are employed in academia and 10 percent in the Federal Government. 86 84. National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Degrees: 1950-80. A Source Book, op. cit.,p. 52, Table 32 and National Center for Statistics, unpublished~ata. 85. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 65,000 in 1985 (unpublished); National Science Foundation estimates 101,900 in 1986. National Science Foundation, Science Resources Studies Division, preliminary 1986 estimates, Table B-1. 86* Ibid., Table B-13. 44
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l Slightly less than one-third of the agricultural science S/E work force are primarily engaged in R&D activities. About one-quarter are in various management positions and over one-fifth are involved in production/inspection. Less than 10 percent are engaged in teaching. 87 Women, Minorities, and Foreign Nationals l Women increased as a proportion of the agricultural sciences S/E work force from 4 percent in 1976 to 19 percent in 1986. The majority of female agricultural scientists are employed in business and industry and 20 percent by educational institutions. About 30 percent preengaged in R&D activities. 88 l only 5 percent of agricultural science doctorates employed in 1986 are women, even though the proportion of Ph.D.s granted to women in agricultural science \ fields tripled from 5 to 15 percent in the 1975-85 decade. l Minorities are likewise underrepresented. Blacks, Asians, and Hispanics each account for only 2 percent of the agricultural sciences work force in 1983. In 1985, Asians earned over 2 percent of the Ph.D.s awarded, blacks 1.4 percent, and Hispanics less than l percent (10 out of 1,100). 89 l Foreign nationals receive about unchanged since 1975. The vast completing doctoral study. one-third of the Ph.D.s awarded, a proportion majority return to their country of origin after 87. Ibid. 88 National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Personnel: A National Overview, op. cit., Table B-2, p. 54 and National Science Foundation, Division of Science Resources Studies, preliminary 1986 estimates, Tables B-4 and B-6, unpublished data. 89. National Research Council, Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel, 1985 unpublished data from the survey of doctorate recipients in United States universities.
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SOCIAL AND BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES The social and behavioral sciences encompass a variety of fields. They include anthropology, geography, political science, sociology, and two large but very different fields which are often reported on separately, economics and psychology. Some data sources treat psychology as a behavioral science, separate from other social sciences. The bachelor% degree is insufficient for professional employment in the social and behavioral sciences. Thus, graduate enrollments and degrees are the best indicators for forecasting the supply of social scientists. year since 1975, with psychology taking an have declined. Bachelor% degrees in social Ph.D.s have been steady at around 6,000 a increasing share while other social sciences and behavioral sciences peaked in 1974 and have been dropping steadily ever since. Freshman interest has been fairly steady since the late 1970s, although it dipped in 1980-1983 at the same time that interest in engineering peaked. For all these fields combined, about 14 percent of bachelor% graduates earn a master's and 5 percent a Ph.D. 90 It is difficult to estimate the number of social and behavioral scientists working in this broad field; the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates 325,000 in 1985 while the National Science Foundation (NSF) estimates 621,000 in 1986. Outside of psychology, according to NSFS 1986 estimates, social scientists number about 382,000 members of 91 psychologists add 240,000 to that number, the labor force, including 70,000 Ph.D.s. including 55,000 Ph.D.s. In general, social scientists are more likely to work in industry than in educational institutions, and a larger proportion work in the non-profit sector and in Federal, State, 90. National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Degrees: 1950-80. A Source Book, op. cit.,p. 54. Bachelorsand master% degree data for 1981-83 are from the U.S. .. Department of Education, National Center for Statistics, unpublished. Ph.D. data are from the National Research Councils Surveysof Earned Doctorates in the United States. 91. National Science Foundation, Science Resources Studies Division, preliminary 1986 estimates, Tables B-1 and B-n, unpublkhed data. 47
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and local government compared to other sciences. Unemployment is traditionally higher among social and behavioral scientists than other scientists and engineers, indicating a chronic oversupply. The social sciences attract more women and fewer foreign students than other fields. Within specific disciplines, however, large differences exist. Psychology and economics, for example, are mirror images in terms of enrollments of women and foreign nationals. Non-Asian minorities are better represented in the social sciences than in other sciences. Indeed, the social and behavioral sciences have been viewed as fields of educational opportunity. But they, together with the life sciences, have the lowest salaries and the highest unemployment and underemployment rates. Almost one-third of the Ph.D.s trained in asocial science were working outside their doctorate field in 1983. Nearly one-fifth of Ph.D.s work outside science and engineering altogether. The market for social science Ph.D.s is still predominantly academic. This is not likely to change soon, though the more applied degrees and specialties will continue to fare better in business, industry, and State and local government. 48
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PSYCHOLOGY Enrollments and Degrees l Psychology is the largest social and behavioral science field, accounting for onehalf of Ph.D.s and one-third of bachelors degrees in social sciences. Althoug h Ph.D.s in the social sciences have declined since 1976, Ph.D.s in psychology have 92 In 1985, this number represented continued at about 3,000 per year since 1977. 16 percent of the doctorates granted in all science and engineering. Current graduate enrollments in doctoral degree programs are about 60 percent in clinical specialties, 40 percent in research and experimental specialties. 93 l Bachelor% graduates in psychology are more likely than other social scientists to complete one or more graduate degrees. \ Employment Patterns l There are 170,000 to 240,000 psychologists employed in the United States. Of these, three out of four are employed in science and engineering (S/Expositions. 94 l In 1986, over 20 percent of psychologists in S/E positions were employed in business and industry; another 20 percent work in nonprofit organizations, and almost onehalf in academia. 95 l The work of psychologists in S/E positions differs from those of other S/E professionals. Only 9 percent of psychologists are engaged in research and development, 22 percent in teaching, and 17 percent in some type of 92. National Science Foundation, Science and EngineeringD octorates: 1960-82, op. cit., p. 19, Table 1. 93. Georgine M. Pion, et al., Summary Report of the 1984-85 Survey of Graduate Departmentsof Psycholo~ (Washington, DC: American Psychological Association, June 1985), p.28, Table 11. 94. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 169,000 employed psychologists in 1985; the National Science Foundation estimates 239,700 in 1986. National Science Foundation, Science Resources Studies Division, preliminary 1986 estimates, Table B-l. 95. Ibid., Table B-13. 50
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management. 96 Part of this may be explained by the large numbers o f psychologists in clinical practice. l Compared to other doctoral-level scientists, psychologists exhibit relatively low mobility into other scientific fields. 7 Instead, they may move out of science altogether in times of oversupply, as indicated by the high proportion of psychology Ph.D.s reporting non-science/engineering employment. l Psychologists bachelors or occupations. generally follow two career paths. Clinical psychologists, with a master%, work in industry or hospitals and other health service Two-thirds of clinical psychologists are bachelor% or masters holders. Experimental psychologists earn a Ph.D. and enter academic research, or, to a lesser extent, industry; three out of four of psychologists active in research hold a Ph.D. 98 \ l Between 1972 and 1984, subfields associated with academic research experimental, comparative, and physiological declined while clinical specialties thrived. Over subfields, and (health service half of recent Ph.D.s in psychology have been awarded in clinical new Ph.D.s increasingly enter private or public clinical practice provider) instead of pursuing traditional academic careers. 99 Women, Minorities, and Foreign Nationals l The composition of the psychology degree pool is distinctive: women dominate at the bachelor% level (two of every three bachelors awarded) and earn half of the 96. [bid. 97. National Research Council, Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel, Science, Engineering, and Humanities Doctorates in the United States: 1983 Profile, op. cit., pp. 18-19, Table 2-2. 98. Joy Stapp, et al. Census of Psychological Personnel: 1983? American Psychologist, vol. 40,N0. 12, December 1985, pp. 1,334-1,341. 99. Georgine M. Pion and Mark W. Lipsey, Psychology and Society: The Challenge of Change, N American Psychologist, vol. 39, No. 7, July 1984, pp. 739-754; and Ann Howard, et al., The Changing Face of American Psychology: .4 Report from the Committee on Employment and Human Resources, unpublished manuscript. 53
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100 Women t e n d t o congreg a t e Ph.D.s, the highest proportion among the sciences. in developmental, educational, and clinical psychology, while men hold mor e research positions. l Despite receiving a majority of psychology degrees, women are less likely to be tenured or on a tenure track, and more likely to be working part time. In graduate departments of psychology, two-thirds of the faculty are male. l Minority participation in psychology is very low: 3 to 6 percent black, 3 percent Hispanic, and 1 percent Asian and Native American. l There are very few foreign nationals in psychology; they comprise only 4 percent of current graduate enrollment, compared to 20 percent for other social sciences. 101 100. Commission on Professionals in Science and Technology, Professional Women and Minorities: A Manpower Data Resource Science, 6th ed. (Washington, DC:February 1986), pp. 232, 241-242. 101. National Science Foundation, Academic Science/Engineering: Graduate Enrollment and Support, Fall 1983, op. cit., p. 27, Table A-8. .... 54
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ECONOMICS Education and Supply l For 25 years economics has attracted many students. Baccalaureate production more than doubled to 17,000 in 1970, declined slightly to mid-decade, and has climbed ever since, surpassing 20,000 in 1983. l Master% degrees exhibit a similar pattern to baccalaureates, plateauing in 198 0 around 2,000 and holding stable. Ph.D. production has fluctuated between 700 and 800a year since 1970. 102 Employment Patterns l There are 111,000 to 145,500 economists employed in the United States. Of these, \ three out of five are employed in S/E positions. 103 l In 1986, 42 percent of the economists holding S/E positions are working in business and industry, 35 percent i n academia and 12 percent in the Federal Government. 104 In the last decade, economists have doubled their number in the work force. l The principal wor k activity o f S/E economists in 1986 is management/administration (25 percent), followed by teaching (24 percent), and 102. National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Degrees: 1950-80. A Source Book, op. cit.,p. 56. 103. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 110,000 employed economists in 1985; the National Science Foundation estimates 145,500 in 1986. National Science Foundation, Science Resources Studies Division, preliminary 1986 estimates, Table B-1, unpublished data. 104. National Science Foundation, Science Resources Studies Division, preliminary 1986 estimates.
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research and development (19 percent). 105 l The profile for the 20,000 Ph.D. economists in the work force is with almost half having teaching as their primary work activity engaged in R&D. 106 more academic, and one-quarter l The average salary for a Ph.D. economist in 1983 was $42,000. This exceeds the average for scientists/engineers in all fields combined by almost $3,000 and in 107 Alt h oug h new j o b ope n i n g s were down in 1985 rem social sciences by $6,000. the year before, the academic market has accommodated new Ph.D.s seekin g entry-level positions. 108 Women, Minorities, and Foreign Nationals l Women have historically fared poorly in economics They receive disproportionately fewer of the degrees awarded at all levels, 33 percent of bachelors, 24 percent of masters, and 16 percent of Ph.D.s. Women have slowly increased their share of degrees over the past decade, although this increase has slowed. According to one survey, the percentage of female economics assistant professors doubled to 16 percent between 1976 and 1984. Still, in that year only 4 percent of the tenured economics faculty were women. 109 l Blacks and Hispanics are not well represented in economics, while Asians are doing somewhat better. In 1983, black economists in the work force totaled 3 percent, Asians 7 percent, and Hispanics 2 percent. Black economists have remained 105. Ibid. 106. National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Personnel: A National Overview, op. cit., .pp. 117, 121, 125, 129, Table 12-b, and unpublished data 1986 estimates. 107. Ibid., p. 140, Table B-18. 108. C. Elton Hinshaw, Report of the Director: Job Openings for Economists, in Proceedings of the 98th Meeting of the American Economic Association, American Economic Review, vol. 76, No.2, May 1986, pp. 443-444. 109. Isabell Sawhill, f~RepOrt of the Committee On the Economics Profession, H in Proceedings of the 98th Meeting Association, American Economic Review, vol. 76, No. 2, May Status of Women in th e of the American Economic 1986, ppo 452-457.
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between 1 and 2 percent of Ph.D.s since 1973, while Asians have doubled their participation to 9 percent. Ph.D. data for 1985 show this trend continuing: blacks, Hispanics, and American Indians combined account for less than 4 percent of the doctorates granted. 110 l Foreign nationals holding temporary pool. In 1960, they received 19 economics; in 1985, that percentage \ visas are a large share of percent percent of the was 34. 111 the economics talent Ph.D.s conferred in 110. National Research Council, Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel, Doctorate Recipients from United States Universities: Summary Report 1984, op. cit., p. 32. 111. Data for 1960-82 are from National Science Foundation,. Science and Engineer~ng Doctorates: 1960-1982, NSF 83-328 (Washington, DC: 1983), pp. 44-45, Table 2. Data for 1983-85 are from National Research Council, Doctorate Recipients from United States Universities: Summar y Report 1984, op. cit. -- 59
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. ENGINEERING Overview The engineering labor force differs markedly from the scientific labor force. section discusses engineering as a degree and work category, then examines engineering specialties, electrical engineering and chemical engineering. The bachelor% is the entry-level professional degree and the one held by the majority of employed engineers. A masters degree or the 5-year engineer degree This two vast is an important credential, unlike most of the sciences where the master% is merely a stepping-stone to a Ph.D. or a consolation for not continuing doctorate study. The six largest engineering specialties, in approximate rank order according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates, are electrical and electronic, with over 500,000 engineers in the labor force and more than 22,000 degrees awarded in 1985 $ mechanical, civil, industrial, chemical, and aeronautical and aerospace. These specialties include about 80 percent of all engineers. 112 The labor market varies considerably among engineering specialties. The market for electrical engineers may boom, while aerospace engineers are unable to find jobs. Within each engineering specialty, new skills may be in critical demand while others are 112. Estimates of the number of engineers employed in the United States compiled by the two major sources of labor,force data, the Bureauof Labor Statistics (BLS) and the National Science Foundation (NSF), differ greatly due to differences in definition and data collection: Electrical Mechanical Civil Industrial Aeronautical Chemical TOTAL ENGINEERS BLS(1985) 544,000 272,000 221,000 178,000 95,000 64,000 1,683,000 NSF(1986 est.) 581,300 513,700 365,700 150,900 111,600 163,100 2,560,600 NSF data from National Science Foundation, Science Resources Studies Division, preliminary 1986 data, Table B-1, unpublished data. 60
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outmoded. New specialties, such as materials, bioprocess, or computer engineering, often emerge as offshoots of a traditional specialty and fall between the cracks of existing data collection ~ making it difficult to track their progress. t Industrial requirements for engineers change rapidly to take advantage of new technologies or to match swings in production. To satisfy this changing demand, education of new engineers is complemented by retraining and migration (field mobility). Much of this migration occurs within the engineering population, as a growing engineering specialty draws upon others and changes the distribution among specialties. Market forces are particularly influential in the career choice of young engineers. There is a relatively stable total pool of engineers. Education/Supply of Engineers l Together with computer science, engineering has been the fastest growing area of study since the early 1970s. But growth has slowed as the job market settles from boom into slower growth and as the supply of 18-year-olds starts downward. The largest increase has been in bachelor% awards, which doubled between 1975 and 113 During that same period, average grwth in 1985 from 38,000 to over 77,000. bachelor% awards in all fields was less than 20 percent. l Engineering bachelors graduates nearly doubled their share of all bachelors degrees between 1975 and 1985, from 4.5 percent to 8 percent. The years 1984-85 mark a turning point in engineering: the slowdown in bachelor% degrees and the upswing in Ph.D.s. Masters awards continue their steady climb. 113. Engineering Manpower Commissions Engineering and Technology Degrees (Washington, DC: American Association of Engineering Societies, published annually). Unless otherwise noted, engineering degree data are from the Engineering Manpower Commission. The Commission data at all degree levels tend to be slightly higher than data reported by the National Research Council and the U.S. Department of Educations National Center for Statistics, but follow a similar pattern. 61
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l The unprecedented surge in undergraduate engineering enrollments of the 1970s is settling down as college students respond to the downturn in the job market, particularly in the electronics and computer industries. Freshman enrollment > started down in 1983. l Projections based on declining college age bachelors engineering 1985 to 70,000-72,000 the 1990s. 114 current undergraduate enrollment levels, coupled with the population, indicate a substantial decline in the number of awards in the late 1980s, down from the 77,000 awarded in in 1989; the trend is expected to continue downward through l Engineering Ph.D.s, like the sciences, peaked in 1970-72 and then declined rapidly. The substantial decline in engineering Ph.D. awards relative to bachelor% awards in the 1970s testifies to the powerful influence of the attractive job market for bachelors and masters level engineers. l Over the past 3 years, engineering doctorate awards have increased and regained their 1975 level. Slightly over 3,100 engineering Ph.D.s were awarded in 1985. 115 Graduate enrollments have been rising since 1978, signaling a continuing increase in engineering Ph.D. awards at least into the early 1990s, up to about 4,000. l Very few engineering students undertake postdoctoral study. There are about 1,200 postdoctoral students, over 60 percent of whom are foreign. currently 114. Commission on Professionals in Science and Technology, Washington, DC, unpublished data. Enrollment and degree data are from the U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Statistics; freshmen intentions from Cooperative Institutional Research Program, The American Freshman: National Norms for kall, 1985 (Los Angeles, CA: Higher Education Research Institute, December 1985). .. 115. The National Research Council reported 3,165 engineering Ph.D.s in 1985; Engineering Manpower Commission reported 3,383. National Research Council, Officeof the Scientific and Engineering Personnel, unpublished data from annual survey of doctorate recipients from United States universities, and Engineering Manpower Commission, Engineering and Technology Degrees, op. cit.
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Employment/Demand for Engineers l Engineering has been one of the fastest growing occupations in the 1980s. 116 In 1986, there were 2,560,600 engineers employed in the United States. Over 90 > percent are employed in science and engineering (S/E) slightly more than 3 percent of the engineering S/E percent of employed engineers hold doctorates. About engineers work in business/industry. 117 positions. Women make up work force. Only about 3 80 percent of S/E employed l The labor market for an engineering specialty largely depends upon the diversity of the labor market and the economic health of key industry employers. For example, only one-third of chemical engineers work in the chemical industry, while three118 Mechanical quarters of aerospace engineers work in the aircraft industry. engineers work in a variety of settings, and seem able to weather business cycles by \ shifting to related jobs. Demand for more petroleum or nuclear engineers, on the other hand, rides the roller coaster of the energy and resource industries which dominate their market. l Universities and colleges trying to hire faculty to handle high undergraduate enrollments face a continuing shortage of Ph.D. engineers interested in academic positions, particularly in electrical and computer engineering. Universities and colleges employ only 4 percent of all engineers, but about one-third of doctorate engineers. Engineering Technicians and Technologists l Engineering technicians are an important part of the engineering labor force and a source of new engineers through mobility and training. 116. National Science Board, Science Indicators: The 1985 Report, NSB 851 (Washington, DC: National Science Foundation, 1985~p. 56. 117. National Science Foundation, Science Resources Studies Division, preliminary 1986 estimates, Tables B-1, B-11, B-13, unpublished data. 118. National Science Board, op. cit.,p. 57. 63
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,. Total Engineering Degrees. 1968-1985 ES, MS. and PhD No. OF Degree s 100,000 30,000 10. 000 . .... . .. . ,. . . *. . .. ..*. . . . . .. 9 1 1 E 1 1 1 J t 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 64
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NuW9ber 70,OO0 60.000 50,000 40,000 BS Degrees in Engineering 1975-1985 BS Degrees EE CivilE Other 1 1 f 1 t I t 1 1 4 65
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\ 66
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. ,, 0 1 119 A minority ar e l There are approximately one million engineering technicians. trained in 2-year and 4-year specialized engineering technician and technology programs (about 12,000 4-year bachelor% degrees and 14,000 to 20,000 2-year 1 associate degrees were awarded in engineering technology in 1984). 120 l Electronics and electrical technicians are by far the largest category, about 40 percent of engineering technicians and technician level degrees. 121 Foreign Nationals l The influx of foreign students is particularly apparent in engineering. Over 40 percent of recent engineering Ph.D.s have been awarded to foreign students on temporary visas (over 50 percent including those on permanent visas), up from 3 0 percent in 1975. 122 l Forty-two percent of full-time graduate students in Ph.D.-granting institutions are foreign 123 (They are 30 percent of all graduate students, as they are much more likely than the U.S. students to study full-time and to continue on for a Ph.D.). Foreign students have received a steady 7 to 9 percent of bachelors engineering degrees since the mid-1970s. Their share of master% degrees increased slightly during the 1970s to 25-28 percent, which has held steady since 1980. Foreign 119. Betty M. Vetter and Eleanor L. Babco, Professional Women and Minorities: A Manpower Data Resource Service, 5th ed. (Washington, DC: Scientific Manpower Commission, August 1984), p. 198, Table 7-31. 120. Ibid., p. 192, Table 7-25. Unpublished data for 1984 furnished by Betty Vetter. 121. Estimates of engineering technician population providedby Betty Vetter, Scientific Manpower Commission, basedon the Bureau of Labor Statistics data and the Engineering Manpower Commissionfs Engineering and Technology Degrees series. Vetter estimates 384,000 electrical/electronic technicians out of 984,000 total in 1985. Department of Education% National Center for Scienc e unpublished data o n engineering technology/technician degrees is significantly higher than Engineering Manpower Commission data. 122. National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Doctorates: 1960-8~, op. cit., pp. 30-31, 42-43, Table 2. 123. National Science Foundation, Academic Science/Engineering: Graduate Enrollment and Support, Fall 1983, op. cit., p. 28, Table A-9. ..
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engineering students are particularly important at the graduate level due to the paucity of American graduate students. The high demand for engineers has made it easier for foreign students to study and work in the United States. In particular, the shortage of academic engineering faculty has made university and college departments particularly dependent on foreign Ph.D.s. About half of foreign engineers (at all degree levels) stay on to work in the United ? States, after graduation. When those with permanent visas are included, the 124 Foreign engineering students are much percentage rises to over 60 percent. more likely to hold temporary visas than foreign science students; all of the increase in engineering Ph.D. awards has been due to foreign students on temporary visas. \ About 70 percent of the foreign Asian, 125 and over 90 percent of are foreign born. 126 Women and Minorities students who receive Asian-American Ph.D. engineering Ph.D.s are scientists and engineers l Women have shared in the engineering boom but their enrollment and degree-taking is now leveling off after a decade of rapid growth. [n 1985, women received 6 percent of engineering Ph.D.s, 11 percent of masters degrees, and 15 percent of bachelor% degrees. 124. oak Ridge Associated Universities, Labor and Policy Studies Program, Foreign National Scientists and Engineers in the Labor Force, 1972-1982, 0p. cit., p. 5. 125. National Science Foundation, Foreign Citizens in U.S. Science and Engineering: History, Status, and Outlook, op. cit., p. xiii. 126. National Research Council, Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel, unpublished data from 1985 survey of doctorate recipients from U.S. universities. 69
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127 women engineers l Women make up 3-6 percent of the engineering labor force. tend to concentrate in certain subfields, particularly chemical, petroleum, and industrial engineering, and are less likely to choose electrical and computer engineering. Their greatest increase has been in mechanical engineering. l The slow inroads of blacks and Hispanics into engineering have stalled. The attrition rate for blacks and Hispanics in engineering is much higher than for whites or Asians; about half of Hispanics and just one-third of blacks among engineering freshmen successfully complete an undergraduate engineering program, compared to an average for all freshmen of 70 percent. l Blacks are about 2 percent of all employed Hispanics, Americans l Minorities and Native Americans are about are an additional 7 percent. \ engineerss 128 Together, blacks 5 percent of engineers. Asianin engineering are particularly underrepresented at the Ph.D. level in comparison to the sciences. Between 1958 and 1983, blacks received 0.5 percent of engineering Ph.D.s. Of 1985 bachelors engineering degrees, less than 3 percent went to blacks, and less than 4 percent to Hispanics and over 5 percent to Asians. l Asians are doing well in engineering. They received over 5 percent of the bachelors and over 7 percent of the Ph.D. degrees awarded in engineering in 1985. Most of these degree recipients, however, are foreign-born Asian immigrants. 127. The National Science Foundation estimates 3.3 percent in 1984, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 6.7 percent in 1985. National Science Foundation, U.S. Scientists and EnQneers: 1984, op. cit., p. 37, Table B-1. 128. National Science Foundation estimates 1.8 percent in 1986, the Bureau of Labo r Statistics reports 2.6 percent in 1985. ibid.,p. 42, Table B-2. 70
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Engineering ES Degrees, 1968-1985 No. of BS Degree s 20.000 15,000 10.000 5000 o \ 1 1 1 1 1 1 c 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 Electrical Engineering Engineering Source Engineerin g Commission 71
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CHEMICAL ENGINEERING Supply and Demand l There are 64,000 to 163,000 chemical engineers employed in the United States. Of these, over 90 percent, are employed in S/E positions. Women make up about 7 percent of the chemical engineering chemical engineers work in business chemical production and petroleum fluctuates with the business cycles of S/E work force. Over 90 percent of the S/E and industry, mostly in industries related to refining. 129 Consequently, the job market the petroleum industry. l Currently there is an excess of chemical engineers, particularly at the bachelor% level, where unemployment is among the highest for recently graduated engineers. Changes in industry research and development (R&D) priorities have generated the current surplus of petrochemical engineers and shortage of biochemical/bioprocess engineers. l Undergraduate interest in chemical engineering tracks the current job market, with a 4-year lag in degrees. The 7,300 bachelor% degrees awarded in 1985 is down from 1984, following a steady increase through the 1970s and early 1980s. Masters degrees were awarded to 1,600 in 1985, have increased slowly since 1980, to 460 a small rise in chemical engineering continuing a slow increase. Ph.D. awards in 1985. Dauffenbach and Fiorito project bachelor% degrees by 1995, and faster increases in masters and Ph.D. degrees. 130 l Chemical engineers (and petroleum engineers) are twice as likely as other engineers to go on for a Ph.D. and are the most likely to do postdoctoral research. This may 129. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 64,000 chemical engineers in 1985; the National Science Foundation estimates 163,100 chemical engineers employed in the United States for 1986. National Science Foundation, Science Resources Studies Division, preliminary 1986 estimates, Tables B-l and B-13, unpublished data. 130. Robert C. Dauffenbach and Jack Fiorito, The Engineering Degree Conferral Process: Analysis, Monitoring, and Projections (Washington, DC: Engineering Manpower Commission, November 1984), p. 58, Table IV-1. 73 A. .. ,-..... .
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in part be due to the relatively more R&D-intensive, centralized structure of the chemical industry, their major employer. l There are about 7,000 employed Ph.D. chemical engineers, about 40 percent in R&D. They and petroleum engineers are the highest paid engineers. Most Ph.D.s still go into industry rather than academia two-thirds are in industry, onequarter in universities and colleges, 3 percent in nonprofit institutions, and 2.5 percent Federally employed. 131 Women, Minorities, and Foreign Nationals l Chemical engineering has long been one of the most fruitful engineering specialties for women. degrees, 11 percent o f universities Women now earn over a quarter of bachelors chemical engineering percent of masters graduate students and colleges. 132 They are 15 degrees, and 6 percent of Ph.D.s. and about 6 percent of chemical engineers in l Minority representation in chemical engineering is typical: among bachelor % recipients, 3 percent are black, 1-2 percent are Hispanic, and 5 percent ar e Asian 13 3 l Chemical engineering attracts relatively few foreign students; they earn about 5 percent of bachelors chemical engineering degrees, a proportion that exceeded 8 percent in 1976. 131. National Science Foundation, Characteristics of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers in the United States, NSF85-303 (Washington, DC: 1985), p. 22? Table B-5. 132. Engineering Manpower Commission, Engineering and Technology Degrees (Washington, DC: American Association of Engineering Societies, published annually). 133. Ibid. 74
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l Chemical engineering is the only engineering specialty where foreign nationals have steadily decreased as a proportion of full-time graduate enrollments (since 1977). 134 However, the most recent National Science Foundation estimates show an increase in the proportion of foreign full-time graduate students to 40 percent. 134. National Science Foundation, Academic Science/Engineering: Graduate Enrollment and Support, Fall 1983, op. cit., pp. 104, 130-31, Tables C-6, C-27, C-28.
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ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING Supply and Demand l Electrical and electronic engineering is the largest engineering specialty. In 1986, there are 580,000 electrical and electronic engineers employed in the United States. According to the National Science Foundation, of these, 95 percent are working in S/E positions with over 80 percent employed in business and industry, primarily the electronics and computer industries. Women make up 2 percent o f the electrical and electronic engineering work force. About 3 percent of all employed electrical and electronic engineers hold Ph.D. degrees. 135 l Slightly more than one-quarter of all engineering bachelors degrees and slightly less than one-quarter of all engineering Ph.D.s are in electrical engineering. 136 l High industrial demand and high salaries spurred a doubling of bachelors awards in engineering-wide Ph.D. awards did high demand for electrical engineering between 1975 and 1985, from 10,000 to 22,000. Master% awards have slowly increased since 1979 to 5,500. Following the decline in Ph.D. awards through the 1970s, electrical engineering not begin to increase until 1981, in great part because of the bachelors electrical engineers. l Dauffenbach and Fiorito project a 65 percent increases in bachelor's wards and 20 percent increase in Ph.D.s by 1995 due to continued expansion of computer and electronics applications in all industries. 137 l Electrical engineering is a bachelor% level field. Of the over one-half million employed electrical engineers, less than 5 percent have a Ph.D. Those who do earn 135. National Science Foundation, Science Resources Studies Division, preliminary 1986 estimates, Tables B-l $ B-ll, and B-13, unpublished data. 136. Engineering Manpower Commission, Engineering and Technology Degrees, op. cit. 137. Robert C. Dauffenbach and Jack Fiorito, The Engineerin g Degree Conferral Process: Analysis, Monitoring, and Projections, op. cit., p.58, Table IV-1. -. .-.
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a Ph.D. are more likely to go into academic teaching than are chemical engineers. Most Ph.D.s, however, still go into industry. 138 Foreign Nationals, Minorities, and Women l The vigorous worldwide computer and electronics market ha s foreign students to enroll in U.S. electrical engineering programs. attracted man y Foreign students have earned 8 to 9 percent of bachelors electrical engineering degrees since 1980 and nearly half of Ph.D.s. Electrical and computer engineering host the fastest growing number of foreign students. l Asian-Americans have been particularly successful in electrical engineering, while other minorities lag behind. Blacks and Hispanics each earn a constant 3 percent of bachelors degrees, while Asians have increased their bachelors awards. Among graduate students, Asians Hispanics by four to one. share to over 8 outnumber both percent of blacks and l Women have slowly but surely made their way into electrical engineering. They earn about 10 percent of the bachelors degrees, but account for only 2 percent of the employment in electrical engineering. 138. National Science Foundation. Characteristics of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers in the United States 1983, op. cit., p. 22, Table B-5. -- 78
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